Inferential statistics (penjelasan dasar):

Perlu menjelaskan sample dan populasi, dan teknik sampling agar mewakili
populasi.
One of the goals of social science research is to test our theories and hypotheses by using many
different people, groups, societies, and historical eras (p. 128).
However, a major problem in social science research is that the populations in which we are
interested are too large to test (p. 128).
If it is too difficult or expensive to do research with entire populations, how can we test our
theories? To deal with this problem, social scientists select samples,
or subsets of cases, from the populations of interest (p.129).
Our goal in inferential statistics is to learn about the characteristics (or parameters) of a population
based on what we can learn from our samples (p.129).
Two applications of inferential statistics (p.129).
1. estimation;
2. hypothesis testing
However, before we can address these applications, we need to consider
sampling (the techniques for selecting cases for a sample) and a key concept in
inferential statistics: the sampling distribution. (p.129).

Probability Sampling: Basic Concepts (p.129).

the basic procedure for selecting probability samples—the only

type of sample that fully supports the use of inferential statistical techniques to
generalize to populations. These types of samples are often described as “random,” However, the
term “probability sample” is preferred because in everyday
language, “random” is often used to mean “by coincidence” or to give a connotation
of unpredictability. (p.129).

that could support

inferential statistics or justify a generalization to a population. (p.129).

The major limitation of these samples is that results cannot be generalized beyond the
group being tested (nonprobability samples) (p.129).

three types of information are generally necessary to adequately characterize a variable: (1) the
shape of its distribution, (2) some measure of central tendency, and (3) some measure of
dispersion.
In statistics, we link information from the sample to the population with the sampling distribution:
the theoretical, probabilistic distribution of a statistic for all possible samples of a certain sample
size (N). (p. 132).
the sampling distribution is the distribution of a statistic (e.g., a mean or a proportion) for every
conceivable combination of cases from the population.
A crucial point about the
sampling distribution is that its characteristics are based on the laws of probability,
not on empirical information, and are very well known. In fact, the sampling
distribution is the central concept in inferential statistics, and a prolonged examination
of its characteristics is certainly in order.
 we move between the sample and population by means of the
sampling distribution. Thus, three separate and distinct
distributions are involved in every application of inferential
statistics:
1. The population distribution, which, of course, is
unknown.
2. The sampling distribution, which is nonempirical or
theoretical.
3. The sample distribution of the variable, which is
empirical (i.e., it exists in reality) and is known.
Buat contoh: BPS, Indonesia dan sample kalsel atau jatim.

The first theorem states:

If repeated random samples of size N are drawn from a normal population with mean m and
standard deviation s, then the sampling distribution of sample means will be normal, with a mean
μ and a standard deviation of s/√N.
The first theorem requires a normal population distribution.

What happens when the distribution of the variable in question is unknown or is known not to
be normal in shape (such as income, which always has a positive skew)? These eventualities (very
common, in fact) are covered by a second theorem called the central limit theorem:
If repeated random samples of size N are drawn from any population, with mean μ and standard
deviation s, then as N becomes large, the sampling distribution of sample means will approach
normality, with mean μ and standard deviation s/√N.
important points about the sampling distribution:
1. Its definition: The sampling distribution is the distribution of a statistic (like a
mean or a proportion) for all possible sample outcomes of a certain size.
2. Its shape: It is normal (see Chapter 5 and Appendix A).
3. Its central tendency and dispersion: The mean of the sampling distribution
is the same value as the mean of the population. The standard deviation of
the sampling distribution—or the standard error—is equal to the population standard deviation
divided by the square root of N . (See the two theorems presented
in the previous section of this chapter).
4. The role of the sampling distribution in inferential statistics: It links the sample
with the population (see Figure 6.1).