Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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Course Introduction
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ASQ Overview
The American Society for Quality (ASQ) is the world's leading authority on quality.
With more than 100,000 individual and organizational members, this professional
association advances learning, quality improvement and knowledge exchange to
improve business results and create better workplaces and communities worldwide.
As champion of the quality movement, ASQ offers technologies, concepts, tools and
training to quality professionals, quality practitioners and everyday consumers,
encouraging all to Make Good Great™.
ASQ is grateful for the contributions and dedication of subject matter experts who
provided their assistance in the development and design of this course.
This course is based on the ASQ Six Sigma Black Belt Body of Knowledge. To
download a copy of the Body of Knowledge, roll over Page Resources at the bottom
of this page.
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Course Overview
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Six Sigma Black Belt
Enterprise-Wide Deployment
Lesson Introduction
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Lesson Overview
The tools and objectives of the Enterprise-Wide Deployment lesson are illustrated
below.
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Six Sigma Black Belt
Enterprise-Wide Deployment
Enterprise View
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Enterprise-Wide Deployment topic, all learners will be able to:
understand the organizational value of Six Sigma, its philosophy, goals and
definition.
understand and distinguish interrelationships between business systems and
processes.
describe how process inputs, outputs and feedback of the system impact the
entire enterprise system as a whole.
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Six Sigma Green Belt web-based
Certification Preparation Course.
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Why Use Six Sigma
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Philosophy and Goals
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Business Systems and Processes
Understanding the mindset of business is crucial to the success of any quality project.
In this topic you will gain an understanding of and distinguish interrelationships
between business systems and processes. Systems and processes and the
relationships that define them will be first discussed and then applied to business.
The American Heritage Dictionary defines system as “a group of interacting,
interrelated, or interdependent elements forming a complex whole." The ASQ
Glossary defines system as "a group of interdependent processes and people that
together perform a common mission."
This latter definition highlights an important aspect of systems, namely that a system
operates in unity toward a unified purpose. Without a true understanding of a system's
purpose, elements and interdependencies, it is difficult to know what improvements
would truly benefit the system as a whole, rather than benefiting only one of its
elements at the possible expense of others.
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System Example
Knowledge check
What is another example of a system in nature?
What are its elements?
How could a PC be considered a subsystem?
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System Functions
The American Heritage Dictionary defines function as “the action for which a person
or thing is particularly fitted or employed.” For a system is to fulfill its purpose, one or
more actions must occur. Thus, the functions of a system are those associated actions
that allow a system to work as a unit toward its stated purpose.
In the PC example, think about how multiple functions must work together to open an
email program. To oversimplify the functions, when a user drags the mouse, an
electronic signal must transmit the action of the mouse moving into a related motion
recognizable to the user. The monitor allows the user to see this motion and the
software and signal work together to display the cursor moving on the screen.
Working in harmony, the user drags the cursor over the program icon and
double-clicks the left mouse button. This transmits the instruction to the software:
open the email program.
To fully document this simple action across all subsystems within the PC would take
volumes if you went to the deepest levels. To diagram the opening email example:
Example Concept
The Personal Computer System
is made up of a monitor, keyboard, mouse, software and other hardware Subsystems/Elements
which function together to allow the user to open email software Unified Purpose
by executing the process of navigating and opening the program. Process
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Processes
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Applying a Systems View to Business
Now that the groundwork for the concepts has been established, how does this
translate into designing a quality project for a business?
Say, for example, that a business considers the following its core functions:
Sales
Marketing
Engineering
Production
Customer Service
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Functional Processes
Each of these core functions has its own set of defined processes, which that particular
department uses to accomplish its goals.
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Support Functions
The business also has various functions that support the core functions. These include:
Human Resources
Finance
Information Technology (IT)
Warehousing
At this point, the analysis of the business system looks vertical. Individuals inside a
particular functional area have full view of their own process but have difficulty
seeing outside of these “silos” except when they intersect with another functional area.
For example, an intersection between functional areas occurs when a tracking system
managed by the Information Technology support function is used by the Warehousing
support function to deliver a product to a customer (internal or external). This limited
perspective is why it is crucial to understand the business processes that cut across
these functional process areas.
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Business Process View
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Managing the Purpose
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Process Impact on the Organization
The Six Sigma methodology recognizes that there are many input, output and
feedback sources for an organization. Each output may have its own process
dependent on the input from other processes. All inputs and outputs of a particular
process should be measurable so that quality can be controlled.
Suppliers, Inputs, Process, Outputs and Customers (SIPOC) is a tool that can be used
to help identify these processes in an organization. Although this course will discuss
SIPOC in more detail later, it is important to know that improvements in one area may
create errors in another.
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Six Sigma Black Belt
Enterprise-Wide Deployment
Leadership
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Enterprise-Wide Deployment topic, all learners will be able to:
understand leadership roles in the deployment of Six Sigma (e.g., resources,
organizational structure).
understand the roles and responsibilities of Black Belts, Master Black Belts,
Green Belts, Champions, Executives and Process Owners.
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Six Sigma Green Belt web-based
Certification Preparation Course.
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Enterprise Leadership
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Stakeholders
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Allocating Resources
Effective Six Sigma projects cannot happen without the appropriate decision makers
taking ownership of the project. The project Champion as well as the group(s) funding
the project must stay involved from the beginning and through completion. Working
with the project Champion, the company leadership must provide resources in the
form of personnel and funds to accomplish the project.
Staffing support
Once the project is defined and the appropriate types of roles and skill sets are
identified, specific personnel will be chosen to fulfill each role. During the selection
process, leadership may find that those resources most needed are often the busiest.
These resources cannot justify participation in the project unless its level of
importance is appropriately elevated. Depending on workload, other individuals may
be needed to backfill the work of someone dedicated to the Six Sigma project (Project
roles will be discussed in more detail later in the course.)
If Six Sigma is new to the organization, leadership must provide training in "the ways
of Six Sigma," since use of these processes will affect each team member's
performance on the project.
Other resources
In addition to staffing dedication, the Champion must coordinate acquisition of other
resources needed for the project, which could include:
Software
Hardware
Additional workspace (additional phone, Ethernet and wireless connectivity
support)
Additional meeting space
Meeting room supplies
Office supplies
The magnitude of these resource requirements will depend, of course, on the size and
length of the project.
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Six Sigma Roles and Responsibilities
In Implementing Six Sigma, Forrest Breyfogle outlines the following roles and
responsibilities within a Six Sigma infrastructure:
Champion
Master Black Belt
Black Belt
Green Belt
Process Owner
Again, depending on the organization, there may not be an individual to fill every role.
In those cases, someone in another role must accept those responsibilities.
Roll over Page Resources and select Six Sigma Roles and Responsibilities to view a
chart of specific responsibilities per role.
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Six Sigma Hierarchy
Historically, one of the unique features of a Six Sigma project is its associated
organizational structure. By announcing a structure with designated roles, the
company leadership and employees further declare their dedication to the project. In
practical terms, a well-defined structure strengthens accountability and increases the
project's chance of success.
An example of a Six Sigma hierarchy is shown below. Keep in mind that every
organization is different. Depending on the size of the organization or even the size of
the project, the roles shown below may not be filled in the same manner.
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Six Sigma Black Belt
Enterprise-Wide Deployment
Organizational Goals and Objectives
Learning Objectives
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Organizational Goals and Objectives
Concept: Learning Objectives
At the end of this Enterprise-Wide Deployment topic, all learners will be able to:
understand key drivers for business, metrics and scorecards.
describe the project selection process including knowing when to use Six Sigma
improvement methodology (DMAIC) as opposed to other problem-solving tools
and confirm the link back to organizational goals.
describe the purpose and benefit of strategic risk analysis (e.g., strengths,
weaknesses, opportunities, threats (SWOT), scenario planning) including the risk
of optimizing elements in a project or process resulting in suboptimizing the
whole.
document the objectives achieved and manage the lessons learned to identify
additional opportunities.
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Six Sigma Green Belt web-based
Certification Preparation Course.
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Key Business Drivers
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Organizational Goals and Objectives
Concept: Key Business Drivers
In his book Insights to Performance Excellence 2006, Mark Blazey defines “key” as
“the major or most important elements or factors, those that are critical to achieving
the intended outcome…those that are most important to the organization’s success.
They are the essential elements for pursuing or monitoring a desired outcome.”
Defining the specific drivers of a particular business, then determining a performance
target for the resulting business objects, is key to continued success. These drivers are
determined by understanding the nature of the business at large, as well as the market
forces driving the business.
For example, the key business drivers for banks inside of grocery stores could include:
Existing store site population
Existing store site capability
Store expansion or plans to accommodate bank
New grocery store growth
Bank inclusion in new store plans
Performance feedback from existing sites
Each driver has a degree of influence on continued growth for this specific banking
business.
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Key Business Drivers
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Organizational Goals and Objectives
Concept: Key Business Drivers
Suppliers strive for performance on internal metrics (e.g., cycle time, cost or defects)
to meet customers’ increasing expectations on external metrics (e.g., delivery, price or
quality).
The following key drivers taken from the hospital example (used earlier in this lesson)
are common to most businesses and allow management to gather data for comparison
with competitors.
Profit - An advantageous gain or return; a benefit. Hospital system profitability
depends on managing costs down while increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of
billing insurance payers.
Market share - The proportion of industry sales of a good or service that is controlled
by a single company. Our hospital system controls less than 20% of the market and
that market share is decreasing due to a poor reputation for customer service.
Customer satisfaction - Meeting and/or exceeding customers' spoken or unspoken
needs and requirements as fast as possible with the lowest possible cost to the
customer (i.e., offering consistent performance, on-time delivery, lower costs, etc.).
Customers want the right prescriptions, shorter wait times in the various clinics and
emergency room, and improved accessibility to services.
Efficiency - A measure of desirability (i.e., improving availability, usability, features,
design, etc.). Customers in the hospital system do not want to spend time filling out
lengthy and repetitive forms. Patients do not want to lay on a gurney in a hallway after
surgery waiting for a room to become available.
Product differentiation - In marketing, product differentiation is the modification of
a product to make it more attractive to the target market. This involves differentiating
your product from competitors' products (i.e., creating robust designs, meeting
customer requirements, increasing process and material capabilities, etc.). For a
hospital system, the COO wants to find a way to distinguish the hospital's products
and services from its competitors. This could be done by building a reputation for
being focused on the patient, improving the availability of new advanced procedures
and improving access to care.
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Metrics Introduction
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Organizational Goals and Objectives
Concept: Metrics Introduction
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Metrics Classified
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Organizational Goals and Objectives
Concept: Metrics Classified
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Linking Projects to Organizational Goals
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Organizational Goals and Objectives
Concept: Linking Projects to Organizational Goals
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Balanced Scorecard
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Organizational Goals and Objectives
Concept: Balanced Scorecard
Robert Kaplan and David Norton created the BSC to move organizations away from
focusing solely on financial data and toward balancing consideration of financial data
with the creation of abilities and intangible assets required for long-term growth. To
achieve this balance, the BSC translates an organization’s strategy into specific
measures in each category.
Note: Although BSC is not in the SSBB Body of Knowledge, it is a widely-accepted
approach to establishing an organizational strategy.
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Baldrige Award Criteria
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Organizational Goals and Objectives
Task: Baldrige Award Criteria
In his book Insights to Performance Excellence 2006, Blazey states the "requirements
for the Strategic Planning Category (MBNQA 2006 Criteria for Performance
Excellence) are intended to encourage strategic thinking and acting – to develop a
basis for achieving and maintaining a competitive position.” Click strategy
development and strategy deployment to learn about sample elements considered
during the Strategic Planning Category (MBNQA 2006 Criteria for Performance
Excellence).
Strategy Development
According to Blazey in Insights to Performance Excellence 2006,
"
sample elements considered during strategic planning include the following:
Customers: market requirements and evolving expectations and opportunities.
Competitive environment and capabilities relative to competitors: industry and
market.
Technologies and other innovations that might affect products and services, and
future business operations.
Internal strengths and weaknesses, including human resource capabilities and
need, resource availability, and operational capabilities and needs.
Financial, societal, ethical, regulatory, and other potential risks that may affect
business success.
Opportunities to redirect resources to higher-priority products, services, or
business areas.
Changes in economic conditions (local, national, or global) that might affect the
business.
Unique organizational factors such as supplier and supply chain, capabilities, and
needs.
Clear strategic objectives with timetables that help leaders determine where the
organization should be at given points in time so they can effectively monitor
progress.
"
Strategy Deployment
According to Blazey in Insights to Performance Excellence 2006,
"
sample elements considered during strategic deployment include the following:
Translate strategy into action plans and related human resource plans.
Align and deploy action-plan requirements, performance measures, and
resources, throughout the organization to ensure changes or improvements are
sustained.
Define measures for tracking progress on action plans and ensure actions are
aligned throughout the organization.
Project expected performance results, including assumptions of competitor
performance increases.
"
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Key Components
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Organizational Goals and Objectives
Concept: Key Components
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Project Selection Checklist
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Organizational Goals and Objectives
Concept: Project Selection Checklist
Careful project selection is key to the success of the Six Sigma quality initiative. Each
industry and organization will have its own guidelines for deploying Six Sigma
methodology. One approach to the dissemination of the Six Sigma culture is quality
leaders (Master Black Belts, Black Belts, and the organizational leader) selecting
projects that have the greatest impact on organizational goals.
The following is an example of the type of criteria used to select Black Belt projects:
As discussed in the Business Process Management lesson, project selection criteria are
customer driven and align with the company's strategic goals and objectives. An
example of this customer driven goal would be to increase customer satisfaction
scores or decrease customer wait time.
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Strategic Risk Considerations
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Organizational Goals and Objectives
Concept: Strategic Risk Considerations
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Suboptimization Example
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Organizational Goals and Objectives
Concept: Suboptimization Example
When optimizing a system, remember that optimization is not just a local issue. Local
optimization may actually have a negative impact on global optimization. The
following is an example of local suboptimization.
Example
The training department at ABC Corporation decided to "go paperless" by emailing
course confirmations instead of sending a printed confirmation through interoffice
mail. This new process would allow the department to cut down on paper and printer
usage, as well as mail sorting time by the mail room staff. However, not all associates
at ABC Corporation have access to email. Therefore, there is still a need to print some
paper confirmations for those individuals. What the training department thought would
save time and resources actually created two processes from one. The trainer now
spends time looking up the name of each class participant in the company's global
email address book. If the class participant is in the email system, then he or she
receives an email confirmation. If a class participant does not have email, then a paper
copy of the confirmation is mailed. In this example, paper use, copy machine wear and
tear and mail room workload were reduced. However, an additional process was added
thus creating more administrative work for the training department staff, resulting in
time lost on other training projects. The net result is a waste of resources and an
adverse effect on profits.
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Scenario Planning and FMEA
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Organizational Goals and Objectives
Concept: Scenario Planning and FMEA
Risk assessment uses several tools. We will consider three: scenario planning, FMEA
and SWOT analysis.
Scenario planning
Pioneered by the Royal Dutch/Shell petroleum company and distribution network,
scenario planning involves constructing a scenario by drawing on current events,
demographic trends and other statistics to compose a "story" describing possible
sequences of events leading to a specific result (Kim Pries, Six Sigma for the Next
Millennium).
Pries states:
"
Typically, scenario planning groups will develop at least four scenarios:
Pessimistic
Moderate but pessimistic
Moderate but optimistic
Optimistic
"
Pries also notes that scenario planning serves "not so much to predict the future as to
open the minds of planners and executive management to options and opportunities in
the future." With scenario planning, risks that would otherwise never be considered
can be uncovered, assessed and anticipated. The military has used scenario planning
extensively.
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SWOT
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Organizational Goals and Objectives
Concept: SWOT
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Strengths
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Organizational Goals and Objectives
Concept: Strengths
To identify organizational strengths, answer the question "What are the skills,
capabilities and core competencies that help an organization achieve its goals and
objectives?" In other words, "What is the organization really good at?"
Organizational strengths might be any of the following:
Leadership
Research and development efforts
Innovative product designs
Breakthrough technology
Teamwork
Product development
Product assembly
Distribution channels
One or more strengths can provide a competitive advantage and help an organization
differentiate itself in the marketplace. For example, if a company is exceptional at
research and development, the company might concentrate efforts and resources in
that area to build or strengthen a competitive advantage. Conversely, spreading
resources too thin across too many areas can weaken an organization's competitive
stance.
Every organization has distinct strengths. However, some organizations enter markets
they do not belong in, produce products or services for which they lack expertise, or
attempt to manage operations they do not understand. This does not mean an
organization should never venture into new areas, but the organization should have a
realistic understanding of what it will take to succeed.
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Weaknesses
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Organizational Goals and Objectives
Concept: Weaknesses
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Opportunities
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Organizational Goals and Objectives
Concept: Opportunities
Opportunities are generally described as those events and trends that help an
organization grow to new levels. Opportunities are everywhere and are seen through
changes in technology, government policy, and social patterns, to name a few. An
opportunity could be found in a major situation or key trend present in the firm's
business environment, or through identification of a previously overlooked market
segment, changes in competitive or regulatory circumstances, technological changes
or improved buyer-supplier relationships.
Other examples of opportunities include:
New technologies
New markets for products or services
A collaborative partnership
Reduced labor costs through offshore resources
Increased customer relations through CRM technology
Increased product awareness through marketing
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Threats
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Organizational Goals and Objectives
Concept: Threats
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Managing Lessons Learned
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Organizational Goals and Objectives
Concept: Managing Lessons Learned
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Closed-Loop Assessment
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Organizational Goals and Objectives
Concept: Closed-Loop Assessment
Once lessons learned are documented, they should be integrated into a process that
ensures their implementation on future projects and within other parts of the
organization. One approach is through a closed-loop assessment, where this type
feedback enters into a process that will result in action. Consider the illustration
below:
In the context of this discussion, the terms above could be understood as follows:
Assessment: The results of the lessons learned, perhaps as a part of the project
final report.
Reporting: Delivery of the lessons learned to the appropriate group within the
organization. (e.g., the project steering committee).
Remediation: Actions taken by the group in response to the lessons learned.
These include corrective action and input for future projects.
Organizations should establish a project repository or database to maintain records of
projects completed and to provide a reference for future projects. Project repositories
help to translate improvements and lessons learned to other processes within the
organization.
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Six Sigma Black Belt
Enterprise-Wide Deployment
Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Learning Objectives
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Concept: Learning Objectives
At the end of this Enterprise-Wide Deployment topic, all learners will be able to
understand the origin of continuous improvement tools used in Six Sigma (e.g.,
Deming, Juran, Shewhart, Ishikawa, Taguchi).
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Foundations in Quality Learning
Series: Certified Manager of Quality/Organizational Excellence.
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History of Six Sigma
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Concept: History of Six Sigma
The quality movement can trace its roots to medieval Europe, where, in the late 13th
century, craftsmen began organizing into unions called "guilds". Six Sigma's role as a
measurement standard has its ancestry in the 1800s introduction of Carl Frederick
Gauss' concept of the normal curve. The harbinger of Six Sigma's measurement
standard in product variation came about in the 1920's when Walter Shewhart showed
that three sigma from the mean is the point where a process requires correction.
1940s The U.S. Military, dependent upon product quality and consistency to
support the war effort, becomes the primary proponent of quality.
Inspection and sampling techniques are implemented and improved
upon, and processes redesigned to increase production efficiency.
Statistical quality control is an emerging quality approach.
1950s Following World War II, the quality revolution in Japan spurs the birth
of total quality in the United States. The Japanese welcome the input of
Americans Joseph M. Juran and W. Edwards Deming, and rather than
concentrating on inspection, focus on improving all organizational
processes at the worker level. Juran facilitates the move from statistical
quality control (SQC) to total quality control (TQC) in Japan.
1970s Japan’s high quality products steadily steal market share from U.S.
industries. The U.S. response, emphasizing not only statistics but
approaches that embraced the entire organization, becomes known as
total quality management (TQM).
1980s Six Sigma begins in 1986 as a statistically-based method to reduce
defects in production processes at Motorola Inc. By the late 80s, it
extends to critical business processes.
1990s In 1991 Motorola certifies its first 'Black Belt' Six Sigma experts,
signifying the formalization of the accredited training of Six Sigma
methods. In the same year, Allied Signal becomes the second to adopt
Six Sigma, followed by GE in 1995.
2000s New quality systems evolve from the foundations of Deming, Juran and
the early Japanese practitioners of quality. Quality moves beyond
manufacturing into service, healthcare, education and government
sectors.
Adapted from The History of Quality, by the American Society for Quality; and
Quality Assurance and Reliability in the Japanese Electronics Industry, World
Technology Evaluation Center.
We will now discuss these Quality Pioneers and their approaches in more detail.
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Origins of Continuous Improvement
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Concept: Origins of Continuous Improvement
Six Sigma contains a broad collection of concepts and tools used to discover
organizational defects and their remedies. Each of these tools was pioneered by one
person, who developed a particular facet of the quality effort, then tested and proved it
to be useful to the global community. In this topic, we will discuss seven of the men
behind the tools of Six Sigma and offer perspective on the tools any Black Belt will
encounter and likely put to use.
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Philip B. Crosby
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Concept: Philip B. Crosby
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Crosby Four Absolutes
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Task: Crosby Four Absolutes
What is quality?
Quality has to be defined as conformance to requirements, not as "goodness."
Management’s job is to establish the requirements, supply the wherewithal, and
encourage and help employees get the job done. The basis of this policy is DIRFT—
“Do It Right the First Time.” Requirements for quality must be thoroughly
understood and accepted.
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Crosby 14 Steps
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Concept: Crosby 14 Steps
Crosby also offered a guide to the implementation process. These steps were
republished in ASQ’s Quality Progress (December 2005), adapted from Crosby’s
Quality Is Free: The Art of Making Quality Certain. The steps are designed to help
individuals and organizations understand the long-term effort needed and to persevere
through the necessary change in order to receive the resultant benefits of quality
improvement.
1. Management commitment: Management must understand and then commit to
quality improvement. Then management must garner the commitment of each
individual to live a work life of conforming to requirements and/or have the
requirements updated to reflect true customer needs.
2. Quality improvement team: A quality team representing the entire company is
needed to enable and guide the improvement process decisively.
3. Quality measurement: Bring the entire company under the some form of
measurement. Measurement allows management to assess progress and
determine improvement targets.
4. Cost of quality evaluation: Organizations must identify the COQ in a formal
and objective manner and then feed the identified costs into the regular
management process.
5. Quality awareness: People need to know about the organization’s quality policy,
management’s commitment to quality and the costs of poor quality.
6. Corrective action: Corrective action is required to identify and eliminate
problems.
7. Establish an ad hoc committee for the zero defects program: Form a
subcommittee (from the original quality improvement team or other involved
employees) to understand zero defects conceptually and determine how to apply
the concepts specifically within the organization. Begin planning and working the
plan as the company moves toward “Zero Defects Day” (Step 9)
8. Supervisor training: Provide training to all levels of supervisors with the
expectation that they will understand the program well enough to teach it to their
employees.
9. Zero defects day: On "zero defects day," management makes a commitment to
quality in front of the entire organization and emphasizes that the entire
organization must abide by it.
10. Goal setting: While zero defects are the ultimate goal, individual groups should
identify interim goals that are made public to the rest of the organization.
11. Error cause removal: Organizations should ask employees to describe the
problems they have so that something can be done about them.
12. Recognition: Organizations should develop a recognition program for all
employees, from executives to line workers.
13. Quality councils: Quality professionals should come together periodically and
learn from each other.
14. Do it over again: By learning, watching, and participating, quality improvement
teams can find ways to continue the quality improvement process.
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W. Edwards Deming
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Concept: W. Edwards Deming
Dr. W. Edwards Deming (1900-1993) is widely credited with starting the modern
quality improvement movement. He introduced statistical methods to American
industry during World War II, but these were largely abandoned after the war. Later, in
the early 1950s, Deming introduced his statistical methods to the Japanese. The
Japanese embraced Deming and his quality philosophy, ultimately naming the
country’s quality prize after him.
According to Deming, good quality does not necessarily mean high quality. A
predictable degree of uniformity and dependability is suited to the market at low cost,
such that quality is whatever the customer needs and wants.
Deming’s quality management principles support a process-oriented approach to the
production of goods and services:
Teach process improvement as the path to increased quality and performance.
Acknowledge the workers’ expertise and involve them in continuous process
improvement (CPI).
Understand variation using statistical analysis.
Overall, Deming emphasized that the key to quality is in management’s hands: 95% of
quality problems are due to the system, while only 5% are due to employees.
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Deming and The 14 Points
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Task: Deming and The 14 Points
The basis of Deming’s philosophy is a list of objectives he called “the 14 points for
Management.” These are requirements for a business whose management plans to
remain competitive, producing goods and services that will have a suitable market.
Points 1 through 5:
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Deming and The 14 Points Cont.
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Task: Deming and The 14 Points Cont.
6. Institute training.
Institute training on the job.
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Deming and The 14 Points Cont.
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Task: Deming and The 14 Points Cont.
12. Remove barriers that rob employees of the right to pride of workmanship.
Remove barriers that rob the hourly worker of the right to pride of workmanship. The
responsibility of supervisors must be changed from sheer numbers to quality.
Remove barriers that rob people in management and engineering of their right to pride
of workmanship. This means “inter-alias,” abolishment of the annual or merit rating,
management by objective or management by numbers.
62
Dr. Armand V. Feigenbaum
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Concept: Dr. Armand V. Feigenbaum
63
Feigenbaum Four Fundamentals
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Concept: Feigenbaum Four Fundamentals
64
Feigenbaum Ten Benchmarks
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Task: Feigenbaum Ten Benchmarks
In addition to the "Four Fundamentals," Feigenbaum offers Ten benchmarks that are
key to implementing total quality control with success.
Benchmarks 1 through 5:
65
Feigenbaum Ten Benchmarks cont.
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Task: Feigenbaum Ten Benchmarks cont.
In addition to the "Four Fundamentals," Feigenbaum offers Ten benchmarks that are
key to implementing total quality control with success.
Benchmarks 6 through 10:
7. Quality is an ethic.
The pursuit of excellence with the understanding that what you are doing is right is the
strongest human emotional motivator in any organization and is the basic driver in true
quality leadership. Quality programs relying solely on cold metrics are never enough.
10. Quality is implemented with a total system connected to both customers and
suppliers.
The relentless application of the systematic method that makes it possible for an
organization to manage its quality and associated costs makes quality leadership real
in an organization.
66
Feigenbaum Crucial Elements of Total Quality
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Concept: Feigenbaum Crucial Elements of Total Quality
Feigenbaum also established nine elements of total quality that enable a total
customer focus (internal and external):
1. Making quality leadership a business center point for revenue growth and
competitive strength.
2. Achieving complete customer quality satisfaction and driving buyer acceptance.
3. Developing effective supplier and other business quality partnerships.
4. Maximizing the effectiveness of quality data.
5. Accelerating sales and earnings growth through quality cost management.
6. Forming an integrated company quality systems network through customer,
producer and supplier relationships.
7. Encouraging the tools and resources to create individual quality improvement
emphasis.
8. Recognizing quality as an international business language.
9. Assuring quality leadership is a foundation for successful ethical behavior and
social contribution.
67
Dr. Kaoru Ishikawa
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Concept: Dr. Kaoru Ishikawa
68
Ishikawa CWQC
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Concept: Ishikawa CWQC
69
Dr. Joseph M. Juran
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Concept: Dr. Joseph M. Juran
70
Juran Achieving Customer Satisfaction
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Concept: Juran Achieving Customer Satisfaction
In Juran's Quality Planning and Analysis for Enterprise Quality, 5E, Juran and Frank
M. Gryna state that “quality is customer satisfaction,” or simply “fitness for use.”
Customer satisfaction is achieved through two components: product features and
freedom from deficiencies.
Product features that meet the needs of customers and thereby provide product
satisfaction. This component refers to the quality of design. Overall, product features
have a major impact on sales income as they affect market share and premium price.
Examples of product features in both the manufacturing and service industries include:
Source: Adapted from Juran's Quality Planning and Analysis for Enterprise Quality,
5E, by Joseph M. Juran and Frank M. Gryna
Freedom from deficiencies. This component refers to the quality of conformance.
Freedom from deficiencies has a major impact on costs through reduction in rejects,
rework, repairs, complaints, etc.
71
Juran Trilogy
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Concept: Juran Trilogy
In Juran on Quality by Design, Juran asserts that “managing for quality is done by use
of the same three managerial processes of planning, control, and improvement that are
used to manage finance.” Thus,
Quality planning is analogous to financial planning and budgeting.
Quality control is analogous to financial control.
Quality improvement is analogous to cost reduction.
As mentioned, these three quality management processes have come to be known as
the Juran Trilogy®. The Juran Trilogy® is a system that top management can use to
institutionalize quality, just as they use systems for financial planning, control, and
improvement. The process requires patience and persistence. As Juran emphasizes,
incremental quality improvements must be made by the thousands, year after year.
A narrative overview of the Juran Trilogy® follows on the next two pages.
Source: Adapted from Juran on Quality by Design, by Joseph M. Juran.
72
Juran Trilogy - Quality Planning and Control
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Concept: Juran Trilogy - Quality Planning and Control
73
Juran Trilogy - Quality Improvement
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Concept: Juran Trilogy - Quality Improvement
74
Walter A. Shewhart
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Concept: Walter A. Shewhart
75
Walter A. Shewhart cont.
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Concept: Walter A. Shewhart cont.
Control chart
The contribution for which Shewhart is most widely known is the control chart. Also
known as the "Shewhart chart" or "process-behavior chart," the control chart is a
statistical tool intended to assess the nature of variation in a process and to facilitate
forecasting and management. The control chart is one of the seven basic tools of
quality control discussed in the Control lesson of this course. The illustration below is
one example of a control chart:
PDCA cycle
Shewhart also gave us the Shewhart cycle (sometimes also attributed W. Edwards
Deming as the Deming cycle). In his book, Statistical Method from the Viewpoint of
Quality Control, Shewhart illustrates the continuous improvement cycle of Plan, Do,
Check, Act (PDCA), as seen here:
76
Dr. Genichi Taguchi
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Concept: Dr. Genichi Taguchi
77
Taguchi Quality Loss Function
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Concept: Taguchi Quality Loss Function
78
Taguchi Three Basic Concepts
Six Sigma Black Belt | Enterprise-Wide Deployment | Org. Improvement and Six Sigma Foundations History
Concept: Taguchi Three Basic Concepts
While most statistical methods describe what has already happened, Taguchi’s
philosophy emphasizes statistical methods that help make things happen. His view of
product quality includes three basic concepts:
1. Quality should be designed into a product, not inspected into it.
2. Quality is best achieved by minimizing deviations from a target. The more
“robust” the products, the less sensitive they are to variables that are either
ill-controlled or non-controllable.
3. The COQ should be measured as a function of deviation from the midpoint of the
specification or tolerance limits; any losses should be measured system-wide.
Overall, Taguchi’s philosophy is technical in nature. While it does not require
companies to undergo an internal revolution, it does provide concrete concepts to help
them improve products and procedures.
79
Lesson Summary
Enterprise View
As we think of how Six Sigma integrates into a business, we understand that Six
Sigma is a business initiative, not a quality initiative. It is a way of doing business that
improves quality and productivity, increases competitiveness and reduces cost. There
are three major components to Six Sigma:
Understanding the culture of the organization
Knowing how to use improvement tools
Understanding support systems for the tools
Building Six Sigma into a way of doing business can reduce errors, identify and
correct flaws in processes and have a dramatic impact on an organization's success.
Six Sigma allows for a cross-functional process focus (across departments) which
reduces the likelihood that a positive change in one department will have an
unanticipated negative impact on another department.
The Six Sigma methodology recognizes that there are many input, output and
feedback sources for an organization. Each output may have its own process that is
dependent on the input from other processes. All inputs and outputs of a particular
process should be measurable so that quality can be controlled.
Leadership
Successfully implementing Six Sigma projects within an organization requires the
commitment of top leadership and a well-defined team with well-defined roles. All
team members must be empowered to make the appropriate level of decisions and
should be given the necessary time away from their normal work duties to execute
their required tasks.
Organizational goals and objectives
Project goals and objectives should be demonstratively linked to the company’s
overall mission. When selecting a Six Sigma project, use the appropriate analytical
tools to ensure the appropriate and best project is selected to maximize the company’s
return on the investment.
Organizational improvement and Six Sigma foundations history
To build a tall building, the work begins with a strong foundation. Understanding the
roots of the tools and methods used within Six Sigma not only provides a perspective
on how these tools integrate into the workplace but also enables an appropriate
appreciation for the men who founded the principles.
80
Lesson Bibliography
81
Lesson Bibliography
82
Six Sigma Black Belt
Business Process Management
Lesson Introduction
84
Lesson Overview
The tools and objectives of the Business Process Management lesson are illustrated
below.
85
Six Sigma Black Belt
Business Process Management
Process versus Functional View
Learning Objectives
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Process versus Functional View
Concept: Learning Objectives
At the end of this Business Process Management topic, all learners will be able to:
understand process components and boundaries.
identify process owners, internal and external customers and other stakeholders.
understand the difference between managing projects and maximizing their
benefits to the business.
establish key performance metrics and appropriate project documentation.
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Six Sigma Green Belt web-based
Certification Preparation Course.
87
Introduction
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Process versus Functional View
Introduction: Introduction
88
Business Systems and Processes
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Process versus Functional View
Concept: Business Systems and Processes
A Six Sigma project revolves around analyzing and improving a company's processes.
This is why it is crucial to determine what a company's processes are, including where
those processes start and stop and what they contain. According to Benbow and
Kubiak in The Certified Six Sigma Black Belt Handbook:
"
A business system is designed to implement a process or, more commonly, a set of
processes. Business systems make certain that process inputs are in the right place at
the right time so that each step of the process has the resources it needs. Perhaps most
importantly, a business system must have as its goal the continual improvement of its
processes, products, and services.
The diagram below illustrates the relationship between systems, processes,
subprocesses, and steps. Each part of the system can be broken into a series of
processes, each of which may have subprocesses. The subprocesses may be further
broken into steps.
"
89
Process Components
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Process versus Functional View
Concept: Process Components
Processes can be defined as a series of events that produce an output. They contain
different elements, actions and steps. The objective of most business processes is to
add value to the product or service being created, which, in turn, will be sold to a
customer. Not every process adds value directly, but may be necessary for the business
to support other value-adding processes. In assessing the organizations existing
processes, those that are identified as not adding value or are not functioning
efficiently may be selected for process improvement efforts or for elimination.
Process components include everything it takes to get from "step A" to "step B,"
including inputs, process steps and outputs. It is important to identify specific process
steps in order to determine those that add value to the process. The measurements
captured for the inputs, process steps and outputs can be used to optimize (or
eliminate) the particular process measured. The items to be measured can be
controlled and changed.
At a minimum, a process contains the following elements:
Inputs: The people or organizations that provide the raw material or resources to
use in the process
Task or process steps: How raw materials and resources are transformed into a
product or service
Outputs: The people or organizations that receive the product or service produced
The diagram below illustrates an example of these elements.
90
Process Boundaries
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Process versus Functional View
Concept: Process Boundaries
As a variety of processes flow through an organization, there are points where one
process ends and another begins. Process boundaries are the beginning and end points
of a process. These boundaries are identified using flowcharts and process maps.
Given the complex nature of most modern business processes, defining process
boundaries is clearly important to the Six Sigma process.
The transition points between boundaries are especially important. They can often
represent a transition between people, departments or divisions. Any process is
susceptible to inefficiencies at these points. This transition issue makes it all the more
important to set clear boundaries for a process to be evaluated. The focus should be on
a project with clear boundaries and endpoints as you will learn in the Define lesson of
this course.
When setting boundaries for a process under evaluation, be cautious where the
boundary exists to avoid issues of transition (hand-offs) between departments or
organizational levels. Mitigating potential issues at the "hand-off" points is key, and
the following tools can help in the transition:
Control or action plans
Pilot or phased approach of implementing solutions
Training
91
Process Hand-Offs
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Process versus Functional View
Concept: Process Hand-Offs
A critical challenge to setting clear project boundaries is that many business processes
cut across multiple departments. An example of such a process is quote-to-cash,
shown below. The diagram depicts the process from one department to the next,
showing how each transition is a potential "leaking point.” At any of these points, data
are lost, waste increases, delays occur, information disappears and the process
becomes less efficient.
92
Introducing Owners and Stakeholders
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Process versus Functional View
Concept: Introducing Owners and Stakeholders
Effective Six Sigma projects cannot happen without the appropriate decision makers
taking ownership of the project. In addition to key resources "buying in" to the
change, these and other resources must be available to give an appropriate level of
input and make decisions. Often, the individuals who are needed are the busiest and
cannot find time to participate in the project unless the level of importance is
appropriately elevated. These individuals should be identified early on and informed
of their role in the project as soon as practical.
Who is a stakeholder?
A stakeholder is anyone who has an interest in the business. This broad group might
include:
Each stakeholder has a different interest based on their relationship to the business.
Similar to stakeholders in the business, there are project stakeholders – those who
have an interest in the process at issue. Examples of this group are usually employees,
managers, department heads, customers, suppliers or vendors and process owners.
What is an owner?
Six Sigma narrows the definition of owner to a process owner, such as a member of
the management team within the organization responsible for a specific process. The
process owner leads the improvement effort for their area of responsibility by:
identifying all stakeholders within the process.
thoroughly understanding all the relevant process elements, process flows, and
process boundaries as well as associated measurements to enable process
improvement.
assigning team members or subject-matter experts (SMEs) from their respective
department to the project.
93
Defining Owners and Stakeholders
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Process versus Functional View
Task: Defining Owners and Stakeholders
To further illustrate the differences among the various types of stakeholders, click the
title of the stakeholder in the list below:
Process Owners
Principal stakeholder of the selected process
Typically a member of the management team
Project sponsor with vested interest in its success
94
Introduction to Project Management
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Process versus Functional View
Concept: Introduction to Project Management
95
Project Manager Roles
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Process versus Functional View
Concept: Project Manager Roles
Black Belts play multiple roles when managing a Six Sigma project. They:
develop the project plan and other tools to manage the project.
manage the project team by assigning tasks and ensuring their execution.
communicate progress and results to project stakeholders.
facilitate the project through difficult periods and transitions.
manage the project focus in addition to managing the project execution.
The next lesson in this course, Project Management, outlines detailed information on
project management for Six Sigma projects. For the purposes of this introduction, we
will concentrate on the the difference between managing project execution and
managing project focus.
All projects require good management skills, but Six Sigma projects differ in that the
focus of the project is paramount. The results of the process improvement effort must
be connected to key and well-defined business results. While BPM is concerned with
focusing on the "right projects" and the "right processes" with the greatest
opportunities, project management is concerned with "doing things right." The
foremost role for the Six Sigma project manager is to ensure that the focus on business
results drives all decisions about the project.
96
Project Benefits
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Process versus Functional View
Concept: Project Benefits
The benefits realized from the project are often the starting point for selecting the
project itself. Projects may be selected for a variety of reasons, including:
Customer complaints
Product defects
Waste and cost reduction
Cycle time improvement
Work flow improvement
Supplier quality improvement
Customer service improvement
Error reduction
Sales improvement
The selection of the project should have anticipated benefits related to company
strategies and customer needs. The project goal states the benefits in clear and specific
language.The Project Management lesson provides further details about developing
problem statements and goal statements.
Example: Reduce production line defects to less than 1.5% for all products started on
the line by October 1, 2007.
Example: Reduce the exception processing steps contributing to inspection, rework
and overtime resulting in a 20% reduction in the cost per unit by 4th quarter 2006.
97
Introduction to Performance Metrics
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Process versus Functional View
Task: Introduction to Performance Metrics
Performance metrics fall into three categories: quality, time, and cost. These three
metrics work within a delicate balance. Improving quality might require an increase in
the time needed for production, which would also increase costs. Reducing the cycle
time might reduce costs, but it also might reduce quality. Reducing costs might also
reduce quality if source materials are less expensive because they are inferior in
quality. Click the terms below to learn more about performance metrics.
Quality
Fewer defects
Higher quality of material resources
Fewer warranty items or returns
Higher demand by customers for product or service
Customer survey scores increasing
Time
Cycle-time reductions
Response time in a call center
Time-to-market
Response time to customer inquiries
Time to complete special orders
Cost
Revenue realized due to increased sales of a product or service that, in turn, is
due to lowered price, reduced costs of production, volume improvement,
improved product quality, enhanced product features, better availability to the
customer, fewer defects and so on.
Cost reductions realized through fewer defects, less scrap, fewer returns, fewer
warranty items and so on.
98
Performance versus Project Metrics
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Process versus Functional View
Concept: Performance versus Project Metrics
Performance metrics are used to determine how effective or efficient a process is,
and to establish goals for the project’s anticipated outcome. Performance metrics are
determined as the Six Sigma process is applied to a specific process, and they are
recorded in project documentation.
Examples of performance metrics include defects per unit (DPU), cost of poor
quality (COPQ) and cost of quality (COQ). Performance metrics describe the
success of the selected process.
Project metrics describe the success of the project’s execution. Project metrics might
include:
Percent of tasks completed
Resource utilization
Timeliness of task completion or milestones reached
On budget
Project variances on budget, timeliness, or resource use
Primary project metrics will respond clearly and specifically to management questions
such as:
Are we on schedule using expected resources of people, equipment, facilities,
and other resources?
Are we on budget using expected resources of people, equipment, facilities, and
other resources?
Are we still expecting to yield the projected value/returns as described in the
charter?
99
Project Documentation
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Process versus Functional View
Task: Project Documentation
Project Charter
As mentioned previously, the project charter is the central piece of documentation in
the project management process. While project charters vary by organization, they
often include common elements such as team members, business need and project
description. More in-depth information on project charters may be viewed in the
Project Management lesson.
Status Reports
Written with a standardized format and formal tone, delivered periodically. Status
reports are specific to each organization.
Provide high-level information on projects
Where project stands in relation to plan
Report any risks or issues affecting the time, scope or cost of the project and
what is being done to address these issues
Request management intervention as needed
Tools used:
Milestone charts
Performance reports
Budget reports
Management Reviews
Meetings between the project leader and management providing updates to the
status of the project using a Gantt chart, status reports or performance reports.
Budget Reviews
Written with a standardized format and formal tone, delivered periodically.
Budget reviews are specific to each organization.
Evaluate actual resource and budget utilization
May involve budget revision
Customer Audits
Are formal reviews conducted by a certified quality auditor (quality audits have
their own Body of Knowledge, which is outside the scope of this course)
Play an active role in keeping the project on track to the stated goals
Should be updated as often as feasible for the project and the needs of the
customer
Note: In this context, “customer” is defined as the principal stakeholder or "owner of
the process" in a project.
100
Six Sigma Black Belt
Business Process Management
Voice of the Customer
Learning Objectives
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Concept: Learning Objectives
At the end of this Business Process Management topic, all learners will be able to:
segment customers as applicable to a particular project.
list specific customers impacted by project within each segment.
show how a project impacts internal and external customers.
recognize the financial impact of customer loyalty.
use various methods to collect customer feedback (surveys, focus groups,
interviews and observation) and understand the strengths and weaknesses of each
approach.
recognize the key elements that make surveys, interviews and other feedback
tools effective.
review questions for integrity (bias, vagueness, etc.).
use graphical, statistical, and qualitative tools to understand customer feedback.
translate customer feedback into strategic project focus areas using quality
function deployment (QFD) or similar tools.
establish key project metrics that relate to the voice of the customer and yield
process insights.
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Six Sigma Green Belt web-based
Certification Preparation Course.
102
Voice of the Customer
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Concept: Voice of the Customer
Voice of the customer (VOC) is the term used to describe the stated and unstated
needs or requirements of the customer. These can be captured in a variety of ways:
direct discussion or interviews, surveys, focus groups, customer specifications,
observations, warranty data, field reports, complaint logs and so on.
Companies that effectively use VOC are proactive and innovative in capturing the
changing requirements of the customers over time. They have a defined process to
collect and analyze VOC to translate the data into specific requirements needed for a
product or service. The VOC is critical to help an organization:
decide what products and services to offer.
identify critical features and specifications for those products and services.
decide where to focus improvement efforts.
determine a baseline measurement of customer satisfaction to measure
improvement.
identify key drivers of customer satisfaction.
The following are typical outputs of the VOC process:
Identification of customer markets and customer segments
Identification of relevant reactive and proactive sources of data
Verbal or numerical data that identify customer needs
Defined critical-to-quality requirements (CTQs)
Specifications for each CTQ
The VOC is determined using four steps:
1. Identify the customer.
2. Collect customer data.
3. Analyze customer data.
4. Determine critical customer requirements.
The process of collecting and using VOC is continual because customer opinions and
attitudes change over time.
103
Step 1: Customer Identification
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Concept: Step 1: Customer Identification
Customer identification is important for several reasons. A company that knows its
customers can:
tailor its products and services accordingly.
become a customer-focused or customer-driven company.
acquire customers more readily.
retain existing customers more easily.
target its marketing efforts.
understand what drives the success of the company.
understand the needs of the customers, who support the company by purchasing
its products and services.
Customers may be classified as internal or external. To ensure the greatest positive
impact to the business from the Six Sigma project, identifying the affected customers
and their needs is an important step.
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104
Financial Impact of Customer Loyalty
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Concept: Financial Impact of Customer Loyalty
Thomas Pyzdek, in The Six Sigma Handbook, succinctly states: “Customers have
value.” Quality management can directly affect customer satisfaction, share of spend
and market share, which is why many Six Sigma projects are chosen for “their
positive impact on customers.”
The book, Six Sigma for the Next Millennium provides the fundamental basis for
questions that should be addressed at the beginning of the improvement process:
Will this benefit external customers or only internal customers?
Is this change benefiting a high-value customer or low-value customer (is this a
customer we want to keep)?
How will change be communicated, both internally and externally?
In this process, it is important to identify how a change will impact a customer, both
internally and externally. Will a process change? Will product numbers or
documentation change? It is even possible that a customer may not want an
improvement because of its negative affect on one or more of their other products or
processes.
105
Net Present Value
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer | Financial Impact of Customer
Loyalty
Example: Net Present Value
Calculating NPV
Pyzdek gives the following calculation for NPV:
"
1. Determine a meaningful period of time over which to do the calculation (e.g., a
life insurer would track decades, whereas a diaper manufacturer would track only
a few years).
2. Calculate net profit (net cash flow) generated by customers each year. For the
first year, subtract the cost of attracting the pool of customers. Specific numbers,
such as profit per customer in year one, are more valuable because long-term
customers tend to spend more.
3. Chart the customer "life expectancy" using samples to fine out how much the
customer base erodes each year. Again, specific numbers are more valuable. In
retail banking, 26% of account holders defect in the first year, while in the ninth
year, the rate drops to 9%.
4. Pick a discount rate. If you want a 15% annual return on assets, use that.
Costs that should be considered when determining attraction and retention costs:
Advertising
Commissions
Account set up
Loyalty and customer satisfaction programs
Calculations
NPV1 = Profit / 1.15
NPV2 = (Year 2 profit x retention rate) / (1.15)2
Last year: NPVn = (Year n's adjusted profit) / (1.15)n
The sum of years 1 through n is how much your customer is worth. This is the
NPV of all the profits you can expect.
"
106
External Customer Types
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Concept: External Customer Types
107
Customer Segmentation
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Concept: Customer Segmentation
108
VOC and Kano Model
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Task: VOC and Kano Model
109
VOC and Kano Model
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Task: VOC and Kano Model
110
Kano Model Analysis
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Concept: Kano Model Analysis
Purpose
The Kano analysis tool prioritizes customer requirements based on their affect on
customer satisfaction. Although all requirements are important, they may not be
equally important to the customer. Kano defines customer satisfaction based on
threshold, one-dimensional and attractive attributes.
Features
Moving from left to right, fulfillment increases. Moving from bottom to top,
satisfaction increases. The three lines represent the three types of requirements.
Looking at the threshold line, when the basics are missing, satisfaction plummets.
With the one-dimensional attributes line, satisfaction increases as more "perks" are
added. With the attractive attributes line, satisfaction is static when delighters are
missing, but when they are added, satisfaction increases dramatically. Essentially, the
better or more innovative the execution, the higher the customer satisfaction.
As mentioned briefly before, VOC changes over time. As industries become more
innovative, features that were once "delighters" become "must haves." At one time an
FM radio in a car was a delighter that moved to "more is better" if it was higher
quality. Now it is a basic expectation. In the same manner, a car CD player was a
delighter and is now "more is better" (more features, with changer, and so on), while
accessories to integrate an MP3 player into the car stereo system are delighters.
Benefits
Gain a better understanding of the customer's desires
Increase customer satisfaction
111
Using the Kano Model
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Concept: Using the Kano Model
Use When
Developing risk assessments about customer satisfaction
Identifying customer needs
Determining functional requirements
Analyzing competitive products
User Tips
1. Ask customers two key questions about each attribute
Rate your satisfaction if the product has this attribute
Rate your satisfaction if the product lacks this attribute
2. Ask customers to answer with one of the following responses:
Satisfied
Neutral (all products have this; this is normal)
Dissatisfied
Don’t care
3. Basic attributes generally receive the “neutral” response to Question 1 and the
“dissatisfied” response to Question 2. Excluding these attributes in the product
has the potential to severely affect the success of the product in the marketplace.
4. Eliminate/include attributes whose presence or absence leads to customer
dissatisfaction. This often requires a trade-off analysis against cost.
5. As customers rate attributes or functionality as important, ask the question, “How
much extra would you be willing to pay for this attribute or more of this
attribute?” This will help determine which excitement attributes would provide
the greatest returns on customer satisfaction.
The Kano model is often used in conjunction with quality functional deployment
(QFD, discussed in a later section) and prioritization matrices, which are discussed
next.
112
Step 2: Collecting Customer Data
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Task: Step 2: Collecting Customer Data
Different data collection tools are available for determining the VOC. Tool selection
must consider the study’s purpose and key decision factors, as well as match the
desired evaluation level and data type. Even with a sound decision on these points,
there can still be bias that will invalidate or skew the measurements.
Click each term to learn more.
Purpose
Identify urgent problems
Identify competitor's edge
Identify customer preferences
Determine the customer's desired level of quality
Determine customer needs
Measure customer satisfaction
Levels of Evaluation
Knowledge
Behavior
Attitude
Opinion
Types of Data
Qualitative Data
Descriptive
Not quantifiable
Also called "discrete" data
Quantitative Data
Measured
Numerical
Also called "continuous" data
113
Tool Selection
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Concept: Tool Selection
114
Data Collection Tools
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Concept: Data Collection Tools
Different data collection tools exist for listening to the VOC. Although each tool has
strengths and weaknesses, the selected tool should be appropriate and bias free.
[ This page in the e-Learning course contains an animation or activity that cannot be printed.
See the online version to view this content. ]
115
Bias and Error - Data Collection
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Concept: Bias and Error - Data Collection
Intentional or not, humans are prone to both bias and error. Culture, preconceived
ideas, and perception are a few of the factors affecting any form of human interaction.
Whether writing questions for a survey or leading a focus group discussion,
researchers must guard against bias that can influence results, and take care not to
make an error in judgment.
Study the chart below. It contains examples of bias and how well each of the data
collection tools compares to each form of bias.
The "minus signs" indicate that the negative criteria can be problematic when using
that tool. For instance, leading questions/wording are a source of error for interviews
and surveys, and are not a problem when using focus groups and observations.
116
Step 3: Analyze Customer Data
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Task: Step 3: Analyze Customer Data
Customer data change over time because of the customer's attitude, situation, need,
and market niche. Many tools analyze customer data. However, selecting the most
appropriate tool optimizes the analysis. All of these tools will be discussed in greater
detail in the following lessons.
Click each tool for a brief description:
Histogram
According to The Quality Toolbox by Nancy R. Tague, "A frequency distribution
shows how often each different value in a data set occurs. A histogram is the most
commonly used graph to show frequency distributions."
Line Graphs
According to The Quality Toolbox by Nancy R. Tague, "A line graph is the simplest
kind of graph for showing how one variable, measured on the vertical y-axis, changes
as another variable, on the horizontal x-axis, increases. The data points are connected
with a line. The x-axis variable is called the dependent variable, because its value
depends on the value of the independent variable."
117
Step 3: Analyze Customer Data
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Task: Step 3: Analyze Customer Data
Control Charts
According to The Quality Toolbox by Nancy R. Tague, "The control chart is a graph
used to study how a process changes over time. Data are plotted in time order. A
control chart always has a central line for the average, an upper line for the upper
control limit and a lower line for the lower control limit. These lines are determined
from historical data. By comparing current data to these lines, you can draw
conclusions about whether the process variation is consistent (in control) or is
unpredictable (out of control, affected by special causes of variation)."
Pareto Analysis
According to The Quality Toolbox by Nancy R. Tague, "A Pareto chart is a bar graph.
The lengths of the bars represent frequency or cost (time or money), and are arranged
with longest bars on the left and the shortest to the right. In this way the chart visually
depicts which situations are more significant."
118
Step 3: Analyze Customer Data
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Task: Step 3: Analyze Customer Data
Affinity Diagram
According to The Quality Toolbox by Nancy R. Tague, "The affinity diagram
organizes a large number of ideas into their natural relationships. This method taps a
team’s creativity and intuition. It was created in the 1960s by Japanese anthropologist
Jiro Kawakita."
119
Step 3 Cont.: Analyze Customer Data
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Task: Step 3 Cont.: Analyze Customer Data
120
Step 3 Cont.: Analyze Customer Data
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Task: Step 3 Cont.: Analyze Customer Data
Matrix Diagrams
According to The Quality Toolbox by Nancy R. Tague, "The matrix diagram shows
the relationship between two, three or four groups of information. It also can give
information about the relationship, such as its strength, the roles played by various
individuals or measurements."
There are several different types of matrix diagrmas. An L-shaped matrix is shown
above. Tague states the following uses:
"
An L-shaped matrix relates two groups of items to each other (or one group to
itself).
A T-shaped matrix relates three groups of items: groups B and C are each related
to A. Groups B and C are not related to each other.
A Y-shaped matrix relates three groups of items. Each group is related to the
other two in a circular fashion.
A C-shaped matrix relates three groups of items all together simultaneously, in
3-D.
An X-shaped matrix relates four groups of items. Each group is related to two
others in a circular fashion.
A roof-shaped matrix relates one group of items to itself. It is usually used along
with an L- or T-shaped matrix.
"
121
Step 3 Cont.: Analyze Customer Data
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Task: Step 3 Cont.: Analyze Customer Data
Prioritization Matrix
A prioritization matrix is a decision making tool using a systematic process to
narrow choices. It is a variation of an L-shaped matrix (discussed in Matrix
Diagrams). A prioritization matrix allows raters to rank the options against
pre-determined scales, weights and criteria to determine order of importance.
122
Step 3 Cont.: Analyze Customer Data
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Task: Step 3 Cont.: Analyze Customer Data
Statistical Analysis
Quantitative customer data may also be analyzed using basic statistical analysis in
addition to using the other tools. Statistical evaluation quantifies and summarizes
information and provides a basis for CTQ. Basic statistical analysis might include:
Central tendency (mean, median, and mode)
Variance of data from an established norm
Correlation between various sets of data
123
Translating VOC to Organizational Goals
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Concept: Translating VOC to Organizational Goals
In the preceding sections, the first three steps of the process to use VOC were
discussed.
1. The customer was identified.
2. Customer data were collected.
3. Customer data were analyzed.
VOC data have little value until they are translated into action, where they can
increase quality, customer satisfaction and, ultimately, the bottom line.
124
Step 4: Determining Critical Customer Requirements
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Concept: Step 4: Determining Critical Customer Requirements
By use of analysis, the VOC is categorized into key customer issues, which are
converted to critical customer requirements (CCRs) or specific, measurable targets.
In this way, customer feedback is prioritized and linked directly to internal processes
to create change.
There are several key components to incorporating CCRs into strategy:
Define how meeting customer requirements will be measured
Determine any impacts or interrelations of CCRs on one another
Translate customer's terms into product features
Identify ways to deliver on customer needs
125
Functional Requirements
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Concept: Functional Requirements
Functional requirements (FRs) are the requirements the product or process must
possess to satisfy the CCRs. The FRs need to be understood early in the design process
in order to establish criteria for selecting a design based on the quality level and
development costs that enable the product to service in a competitive marketplace.
Along with establishing the FR early in the process, the FRs must be accurate and
informative, since misinformation about the FRs can delay the development cycle.
126
CTQ
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Concept: CTQ
The next step is to translate the customer feedback into project goals and objectives,
for which a “critical to” (CT), matrix is often created.
The translation is accomplished by sorting the customer’s needs according to the
following characteristics:
Critical-to-quality (CTQ)
Critical-to-delivery (CTD)
Critical-to-cost (CTC)
The focus here will be on CTQ.
Benefits
Identifies focus areas
Increases customer satisfaction, product quality, and level of business success
Improves customer relations
May identify an area for innovation
Reduces cost of poor quality (COPQ) / cost of quality (COQ) (to be discussed
later)
Improves customer loyalty
127
CTQ Analysis
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Concept: CTQ Analysis
128
Using CT Matrices
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Concept: Using CT Matrices
Procedure
1. Identify the customer.
2. Identify the customer's needs.
3. Identify the customer's basic requirements.
4. Breakdown the requirements into additional detail.
5. Validate the requirements with the customer.
Use When
Working through the Define phase.
Identifying methods for delivering customer needs.
Preparing for the QFD.
User Tips
Use an interrelationship diagram to evaluate relationships between customer
needs and CCRs.
Determine the relative importance of each CCR.
Coordinate with the use of the "House of Quality" matrix (to be discussed later).
Use a CT matrix to lead into the QFD.
129
Moving to QFD
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Concept: Moving to QFD
QFD is a customer-driven planning tool for products and services that focuses on
translating customer requirements into technical requirements to deliver products and
services with features and capabilities that meet or exceed customer requirements.
QFD matrices — a graphic representation often called a House of Quality — are used
to display the results of the planning process. CCRs, FRs and CTQs are incorporated
directly into QFD matrices such as the House of Quality, which are used to determine
how the internal process will be affected.
The application of QFD and the use of its matrices will be discussed at length in the
DFSS lesson of the course.
130
Process Insights
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Voice of the Customer
Concept: Process Insights
As projects or improvements are identified, the result and its improvement and its
affect on customers and other stakeholders should constantly be considered. A few
important questions to ask include:
Is there any reason a customer may NOT want this improvement?
Is there a change in the product that will require action from the customer, and is
the customer prepared for this action (for example, new documentation, new part
numbers)?
Has the issue of CTQs of external customers been balanced with concerns about
cost, profit, and productivity from internal customers?
131
Six Sigma Black Belt
Business Process Management
Business Results
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Business Process Management topic, all learners will be able to:
calculate defects per unit (DPU), rolled throughput yield (RTY) and defects per
million opportunities (DPMO) sigma levels.
understand how metrics propagate upward and allocate downward.
compare and contrast capability, complexity and control.
manage the use of sigma performance measures (e.g., cost of poor quality
'COPQ', parts per million 'PPM', DPMO, DPU, RTY) to drive enterprise
decisions.
understand the importance of benchmarking.
understand and present financial measures and other benefits (soft and hard) of a
project.
understand and use basic financial models (e.g., net present value 'NPV', return
on investment 'ROI').
describe, apply, evaluate and interpret cost of quality concepts (COQ), including
quality cost categories, data collection and reporting.
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Quality Process Analyst web-based
Certification Preparation Course.
133
Introduction
As discussed earlier in this lesson, metrics may be categorized into three levels:
1. Business level metrics are normally financial measures that provide information
to shareholders and senior management regarding the organization’s
performance.
2. Operations level metrics provide information related to the quality, time, and cost
of producing a product or providing a service. These metrics usually apply to
departments or larger groups with aggregated information.
3. Process level metrics provide information related to a specific process, its
efficiency and effectiveness, and the quality the process yields. This information
is typically related to only one process.
The use of these various metrics are discussed in this topic.
134
Process Performance Metrics
Process performance metrics establish the current situation of the process. When
identifying which process to study for a project, performance indices compare the
current status to the target. The project team then selects the process that delivers the
least quality to the customer, or the process with the highest cost or variation.
The upcoming modules will cover each of the following metrics in detail:
Defects per unit (DPU)
Parts per million (PPM)
Defects per million opportunities (DPMO)
First pass yield (FPY)
Rolled throughput yield (RTY)
Cost of poor quality (COPQ)
Tips
Link the metrics to the needs of the identified stakeholders: shareholders,
customers, and/or employees.
This initial reference allows one to compare future measures to initial measures
in order to gage improvement.
Metrics are used to drive project decisions, but on a larger scale, they are used to
make strategic management decisions.
135
Defects and Yield
A stable process is defined as one that does not contain any special cause variation —
it only contains common cause variation. Common cause variation is that which is
normal to the process and doesn't change over time.
To understand the effect of the overall quality throughout the process, the cumulative
effect of throughput and defects through multiple steps must be known.
Consider the following questions about a three-process operation.
If each stage has 90% throughput, is the throughput for the entire operation 90%?
If not, what is the overall throughput?
What is the yield?
Does the 10% lost for each stage have a monetary value?
These are questions that will be answered in this section.
136
Defects per Unit
Introduction
According to ASQ's Glossary and Tables for Statistical Quality Control, defects per
unit (DPU) is the measure of capability for discrete (attribute) data, and is found by
dividing the number of defects by the number of units:
DPU = Defects / Units
DPU refers to the average number of defects observed; it is a measurement of yield.
A defect is defined as the non-fulfillment of a requirement related to an intended or
specific use, such as:
A failure to meet a customer's requirement (characteristic or specification)
Any measured lack of performance needing improvement
Any dissatisfaction expressed by an internal or external customer
Anything prohibiting a service or a part from delivering its intended value to the
customer
A unit is defined as a quantity of product, material, or service forming a cohesive
entity of which a measurement or observation can be made. Examples include:
An assembly
A quantity of time
A process step
A definable service
A product
Benefits
DPU provides a common baseline (benchmark) for:
Describing the current situation in quantifiable terms
Evaluating processes for identifying improvement activities
Evaluating a process in an existing project
137
Using DPU
Use When
performing the Define phase, but also throughout the DMAIC process
gaining an understanding of the problem
generating a measurable statistic (number) for evaluating a process
Information Needed
A defined nonconformity or defect
A defined unit
Total number of non-conformances produced from the distribution being
measured
Total number of items in the distribution
Example
Olivia's Toy Manufacturers produces toy cars. The company plans to analyze the
finishing process and will start by measuring DPU. The finishing process involves
three steps:
Apply paint
Affix decals
Apply clear coat/varnish
A sample of 100 cars is used for the observation. DPU is measured for each step and
then calculated for the entire process:
Step 1 - Apply paint Step 2 - Affix decals Step 3 - Apply clear coat Final
Units = 100 Units = 100 Units = 100
Defects = 2 Defects = 1 Defects = 1
DPU = 2 ÷ 100 = .02 DPU = 1 ÷ 100 = .01 DPU = 1 ÷ 100 = .01 DPU = .02+.01+.01 = .04
138
DPU Tips
User Tips
Once you obtain the DPU, follow with an analysis to understand the problem by
creating a Pareto chart or a DPU histogram
Before collecting data to determine DPU:
Define what a defect is
Define the unit of work
Check the capability of the measurement system (discussed in detail in the
Measure lesson of this course).
139
Parts per Million (PPM)
According to ASQ'sGlossary and Tables for Statistical Quality Control, parts per
million (PPM or ppm) is a measurement that is expressed by dividing the data set
into 1,000,000 or 106 equal groups. The equation is:
PPM = DPU x 1,000,000
The quoted defect rate of a 6σ process is 3.4 parts per million (PPM or ppm), or 3.4
defects per million opportunities "although a normal distribution table will indicate the
probability of exceeding six standard deviations (i.e., z = 6) is two times in a billion
opportunities" according to Paul Keller in Six Sigma Demystified. Why the difference?
Keller describes, "When Motorola was developing the quality system that would
become Six Sigma, an engineer named Bill Smith, considered the father of Six Sigma,
noticed external failure rates were not well predicted by internal estimates. Instead,
external defect rates seemed to be consistently higher than expected. Smith reasoned
that a long-term shift of 1.5σ in the process mean would explain the difference. In this
way Motorola defined the Six Sigma process as one which will achieve a long-term
error rate of 3.4 DPMO, which equates to 4.5 standard deviations from the average.
While that may seem arbitrary, it has become the industry standard for both product
and service industries."
140
PPM and Sigma Level
The following image shows the sigma quality level associated with various services
(considering the 1.5σ shift of the mean):
According to Keller's Six Sigma Demystified, "most companies operate in the three to
four sigma range, based on their published defect rates." Notice in the above image as
the sigma level increases, the parts per million rate decreases. The table below shows
the relationship between the sigma level and the defective ppm.
141
Defects per Million Opportunities (DPMO)
According to the Glossary and Tables for Statistical Quality Control, defects per
million opportunities (DPMO) is the measure of capability for discrete (attribute)
data or continuous data (which is the more common application). It is calculated by
dividing the number of defects by the opportunities for defects, and multiplying the
result by 1,000,000 (or 106). It allows comparison of different types of product to be,
in essence, an "apples to apples" comparison.
DPMO transforms observed process data into a recognized and agreed upon standard
representing the average number of defects a product, process, or service produces. As
a yield measurement, DPMO indicates the number of defects in a process observed
during a production of one million units.
DPMO = (Defects/Total Opportunities) x 1,000,000 OR
DPMO = DPO x 106
Benefits
Defines the current baseline performance
Provides a common measurement to use as a baseline in assessing a process'
ability to produce defect-free products
Provides data to help pick projects for future Six Sigma projects
142
Using DPMO
Example A
Building upon the previous example for discrete data, calculate the DPMO. The
bulleted list below indicates the number of opportunities for a defect during each step
in the process:
Step 1 - Apply paint: two opportunities for defect
Step 2 - Affix decals: three opportunities for defect
Step 3 - Apply clear coat/varnish: five opportunities for defect
Step 1 - Apply paint Step 2 - Affix decals Step 3 - Apply clear coat
Units = 100 Units = 100 Units = 100
Defects = 2 Defects = 1 Defects = 1
Opportunities/unit = 2 Opportunities/unit = 3 Opportunities/unit = 5
Example B
DPMO may be calculated for continuous data by multiplying the proportion defective
or "out of specification" by 1,000,000. While normal distributions are covered in detail
in the Probability Distributions section of the Measure lesson, an example of how to
find the DPMO for continuous data is shown below.
Consider the following scenario:
Wait time in a bank's teller line is expected to be no more than five minutes. On
average, the wait time for customers is three minutes with a standard deviation of one
minute. Based on this information, let's calculate the z value:
z value = (5 - 3)/1 = 2
From the normal table (which will be shown in the Measure lesson), you can estimate
that customers will be waiting longer that five minutes .02275 or 2.275% of the time.
To calculate to DPMO:
DPMO = .02275 x 1,000,000 = 22,750
To translate DPMO to a sigma level, an abbreviated sigma conversion table is shown
below. Based on these calculations, out of one million opportunities, you can estimate
that customers will be waiting longer than five minutes 22,750 times, thus a sigma
level of 3.5.
Sigma DPMO
6.0 3.4
5.5 30
143
Using DPMO
5.0 230
4.5 1,350
4.0 6,210
3.5 22,700
3.0 66,800
2.5 158,000
2.0 308,000
1.5 500,000
1.0 690,000
0.5 840,000
144
Introduction to Yield
Benefits
Provides a common measurement for evaluating a single process
Provides a benchmark for measuring process improvement projects
145
First Pass Yield
As mentioned previously, the FPY statistic does not consider rework; it only looks at
the number of units that successfully complete production. However, FPY does not
provide a completely accurate picture of the efficiency of a process and its ability to
produce an error-free product. Consider the following examples:
Process A: 4,000 units started and 3,800 completed; 200 defective units
Process B: 4,000 units started and 3,800 completed; 200 defective units were
scrapped and 600 additional units had one defect each that were successfully
reworked
Process C: 4,000 units started and 3,500 completed with no defects; 300 units
reworked with 420 defects (i.e., reworked 420 times); 200 units were scrapped
In each of the scenarios, the FPY is calculated as:
3800 / 4000 = .95 or 95%
The processes are very different; however, using the simple FPY statistic, you would
not be able to differentiate the three.
146
Rolled Throughput Yield
Rolled throughput yield (RTY or Yrt) is the probability that a single unit can pass
through a series of process steps free of defects. RTY is calculated as the overall
quality level after several steps in a process have been completed by multiplying the
throughput yield of each step within the process.
Example
Consider the following examples discussed earlier:
Process A: Of 4,000 units started and 3,800 completed, 200 defective units were
scrapped, each had a single defect.
RTY = (4,000 – 200 scrap)/4,000
= 3,800/4,000
= 0.95
Process B: Of 4,000 units started and 3,800 completed, 200 defective units were
scrapped, and 600 additional units had one defect each that were successfully
reworked.
RTY = (4,000 – (200 scrap + 600 rework))/4,000
= (4,000-800)/4,000
= 3,200/4,000
= 0.80
Process C: Of 4000 units started and 3800 completed, 300 units reworked for
420 defects, 200 units scrapped for 580 defects.
RTY = (4,000 – (200 scrap + 300 rework actions))/4,,000
= (4,000 – 500)/4,000
= 3,500/4,000
147
Rolled Throughput Yield
= 0.875
RTY A, B, and C = 0.95 x 0.80 x 0.875 = 0.665 or 66.5%.
148
Cost of Poor Quality (COPQ)-Cost of Quality (COQ)
Cost of poor quality (COPQ) are the costs associated with providing poor quality
products or services. Cost of quality (COQ) is the original term coined by Philip
Crosby referring to the cost of poor quality.
Whichever term is used, it is important to understand more than the cost of the process
improvement or quality department is involved. Quality-related costs should not be
viewed merely as expenses of an organization’s process improvement or quality
department. Today, strong quality and price competition require that organizations
carefully manage all operations to constantly improve their quality and cost positions
in the marketplace.
Benefits
Provides a statistic to quantify potential savings by measuring the actual cost
associated with the poor quality of a product or service
Provides a baseline:
For assessing projected savings for a potential project
During the Define stage when constructing the project charter and during
project benefit impact tracking
For showing the anticipated dollar impact of the generated project
improvement
Identifies hidden costs incorporated into the standard operating expenses of an
organization
149
COPQ - COQ Examples
Examples
Number of defects produced over a selected timeperiod, lot, or unit size
Cost of labor to rework material
Cost of extra material used in the reworking process (if any)
Cost of material that is now scrapped
Cost of the labor applied to the part up to detection
Cost of extra utilities to rework part
Cost of the utilities used in the process up to detection (if part was scrapped)
Cost of lost opportunity to process a new part when the rework part is using the
machine
Loss of sales/revenue (profit margin)
Potential loss of market share
Use When
performing the Define stage to state the baseline, goal, and entitlement.
developing the project charter.
tracking the benefits after closing a project to assure sustained benefits.
selecting future Six Sigma projects.
User Tips
If possible, collect current data to ensure an accurate measurement.
COPQ includes:
Labor cost
Rework cost
Disposition costs
Warranty cost
Material costs
Others invested in the unit up to the point of detecting the nonconformance
Lost opportunity cost due to the loss of resources used in rework
150
COPQ (COQ) Advantages and Disadvantages
Advantages Disadvantages
Provides a snapshot of the The exact cause of movement in the data is
health of the organization’s not always easy to pinpoint
quality Hidden costs in the organization may not
Monitors the long-term effect be reflected in the data
of process changes Data validity is often an issue debated
Increases the efficient among managers, rather than a focus on
allocation of resources improving the processes
Creates a culture of quality and
a continuous improvement
mindset
Engages senior management
and is useful for gaining
commitment to quality
improvement efforts
Monitoring the Cost of Quality (Cost of Poor Quality)
151
COPQ (COQ) Cost Category Overview
Prevention, appraisal and failure are the traditional cost categories many organizations
use to assess the effectiveness of their quality systems in financial terms. These
categories include the following:
1. Investments in the prevention of defectives (non-conformances) to requirements
2. Appraisal of a product or service for conformance to requirements
3. Failure to meet requirements
These three categories represent the classic way in which COPQ/COQ is analyzed.
Total quality costs are the sum of prevention, appraisal, internal failure and external
failure costs. Total quality costs represent the difference between the actual cost of a
product or a service and what the reduced cost would be if there was no possibility of
substandard service, product failures or manufacturing defects.
152
COPQ (COQ) Cost Category Descriptions
Prevention
Prevention costs are all the costs expended to reduce or preclude errors from being
made. Investments in this type of cost usually give the best return and include the
costs involved in helping the employee do the job right every time. This type of cost
can be viewed as an investment in the future; therefore, it is also considered a
cost-avoidance investment.
Prevention costs answer the question "What is the cost of doing it right the first time?"
Examples of prevention costs include:
Market research
Field trials
Customer surveys
Development and implementation of a quality data-collecting and data-reporting
system
Development of the process control plan
Job-related training
Quality-related education and training
Supplier surveys
Design specification reviews
Environmental impact planning
Quality improvement programs
Appraisal
Appraisal can be defined as testing, inspection and examination to assess whether
requirements for quality are being fulfilled.
Appraisal costs monitor ongoing quality. These costs are the results of evaluating
already-completed output and then auditing the process to measure conformance to
established criteria and procedures. Appraisal costs include all the costs expended to
determine whether an activity was done right every time.
Appraisal costs answer the question "Did you make or do it right? "Examples of
appraisal costs include:
Testing
Inspection
Maintenance and calibration of testing and inspection equipment
Safety checks
Reviews of completed designs
Reviews of testing and inspection data
Internal audits of operation systems
Quality product or process audits
153
COPQ (COQ) Cost Category Descriptions
Failure
Management has control over prevention and appraisal costs. Other quality costs an
organization incurs result from errors because all activities were not done right every
time. These include internal and external failure costs. Where prevention and
appraisal costs are considered to be investments, internal and external failure costs are
considered losses. Whether the failure cost is internal or external simply differentiates
where the problem surfaces.
Internal failure
Internal failure costs can be defined as those resulting from a product failure to meet
the quality requirements prior to delivery (e.g., re-performing a service, reprocessing,
rework, retest, scrap).
Internal failure costs are the costs incurred by the organization as a result of
noncompliance detected before a product or service is provided. It is the cost the
company incurs because not everyone did the job right every time — the cost to redo a
defective product or correct an unsatisfactory service. Included are the costs incurred
from the time an item is shipped until it has been accepted by the final customer.
Additional examples of internal failure costs include:
Engineering changes
Costs resulting when additional inventory is required to support poor process
yields, potential scrap parts and rejected loss
Waste
Troubleshooting or failure analysis costs
Corrective action
Internal labor losses resulting from shutdowns, re-setups, line stoppages
Computer reruns
Document changes
Change orders due to errors
154
COPQ (COQ) Cost Category Descriptions
External failure
External failure can be defined as costs resulting from a product failing to meet the
quality requirements after delivery (e.g., product maintenance and repair, warranties
and returns, direct costs and allowances, product recall costs, liability costs).
External failure costs are associated with a product or service failing to meet quality
requirements after shipment or delivery to the external customer. These costs are
incurred by the organization producing the product or the service because the appraisal
process did not detect all the errors before the product or service was delivered to the
customer.
Additional examples of external failure costs include:
Costs of customer-rejected services or products
Complaint handling
Warranty costs
Training of repair and customer service personnel
Overhead costs required to maintain field service centers
Product upgrades or updates in the field
Customer goodwill
Missed sales
155
COPQ (COQ) Models
The most costly condition for an organization occurs when a customer finds defects in
a product or service. If the manufacturer or service provider had found the defects
through inspection, testing or checking, a less costly condition would have resulted.
Better yet, had the organization been focused on quality improvement and defect
prevention, defects and their resulting costs would have been minimized.
In the classic model of optimum quality costs, prevention and appraisal costs are
portrayed as rising asymptotically as defect-free levels are achieved—as prevention
and appraisal costs increase, failure costs decrease until an optimum point is reached.
It was believed that for any process, there was a trade off between cost and the
resulting quality—that there was a theoretical optimum where the benefits were less
than the cost. After this point, decreased failure costs did not offset further increases in
appraisal and prevention costs. But this model underestimated the cost of poor quality.
Recent successes in quality management programs supported by quality cost systems
recognize that the full costs of poor quality have resulted in revisions to the classic
model of optimum quality costs:
New technology has reduced inherent failure rates of materials and products.
Robotics and other forms of automation have reduced human error during
production.
Automated inspection and testing have reduced the human error of appraisal.
As with any enterprise-wide initiative, when launching a complete quality cost system,
support from top management proves critical to its success. The quality cost curve is
shown on the next page.
156
Quality Cost Curve
The revised model shows how these developments have resulted in the ability to
achieve perfection at finite costs. The illustration below shows both the classic and
revised models:
157
Why Benchmark
Benefits
Meet customer expectations more efficiently and effectively
Establish performance goals based on leaders in the industry
Identify best practices to gain market share and improve performance
Include as a critical component of a robust quality program in managing business
processes
158
What to Benchmark
159
The Benchmarking Process
At a high level, the core process steps for a benchmarking program might be:
1. Identify what to benchmark.
2. Select organizations with comparable processes or comparable customer issues.
3. Determine data collection methods.
4. Analyze the data and findings.
5. Establish goals based on the data analysis.
6. Develop action plans to obtain the goals.
7. Implement the action plans.
8. Conduct ongoing evaluation and re-evaluation of goals and benchmarking data.
Companies must be meticulous when going through the benchmarking process. By no
means is benchmarking a "do-it-yourself" process. It is recommended that companies
enlist the help of an expert to do the job right and to help avoid the potential for legal
issues (e.g., conflicts of interest).
160
Project Financial Benefits
When determining whether a Six Sigma project has been successful, the bottom line is
often the factor that matters most. The key question is, “How much value does the
organization realize as a direct result of this project’s success?”
The financial factors defined in this subtopic are:
Cost benefit analysis
Return on assets
Return on investment
Net present value
161
Financial Benefits
Just as there are costs associated with poor quality (see COPQ) there are also financial
benefits of implementing changes that result from successful Six Sigma projects.
These financial benefits may include:
Additional revenue from increased sales
Cost avoidance or mitigation
Faster return on investments
Lower production costs
Lower costs associated with customer service
Increased cash flow
Enhanced profitability of existing services or products
Increased revenue of existing sources
Increased value in organization stock or perceived value
162
Cost-Benefit Analysis
163
Return on Assets (ROA)
Return on assets (ROA) is sometimes used for Six Sigma projects to determine
whether the use of organization assets is warranted based on the return realized.
The formula for ROA is:
ROA = Net Income/Total Assets
When applied to a project:
Net income refers to expected earnings that result directly from the project’s
results.
Total assets refer to the value of the assets applied to a project.
164
Return on Investment (ROI)
Return on investment (ROI) is also used for Six Sigma projects to determine whether
the investment in the project is warranted based on the return realized.
The formula for ROI is:
ROI = Net Income/Investment
When applied to a project:
Net income refers to expected earnings that result directly from the project’s
results.
Investment refers to the value of the outlay made in the project.
165
Net Present Value (NPV)
A NPV allows the calculation of the current benefit of a project for each window of
time and over the total duration of the project for all time periods. If the project NPV
is positive, then the project is usually approved.
The NPV equation is:
Where:
n = number of time periods
t = time period
r = cost of capital for a time period
CFt = cash flow in time period t
Note the following regarding this equation:
CF0 is the cash flow in time period zero which is the same as the initial
investment.
Cash flow for a given time period is calculated by taking the cash flow for project
benefits (CFB,t ) in time period t and subtracting the cash flow for project costs (
CFC,t ) in the same time period.
i may be substituted for r; i represents the annual interest rate.
To convert an annual percentage rate of i to a rate r for a shorter time period with m
time periods per year, use the following equation:
166
NPV Example
Use the information presented in the case below to calculate the NPV for the project.
Then roll over Page Resources and click NPV Answer to view the solution.
A project is planned to update manufacturing equipment and refine the manufacturing
process in an automobile parts plant. The cost of capital is 9.5% APR.
Project benefits:
Decrease rework and scrap of $700 in month 3
Decrease rework and scrap of $500 in month 4
Decrease rework and scrap of $450 in month 5
Decrease rework and scrap of $450 in month 6
Project costs:
Initial process redesign and training costs $400 in month 1.
Installing new equipment costs $840 in month 2.
A second round of training costs $100 in month 6.
A cash flow summary for this example:
Month: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Positive cash flow: $0 $0 $0 $700 $500 $450 $450
Negative cash flow: $0 $400 $840 $0 $0 $0 $100
Cash Flow Analysis
NPV equation:
167
NPV Answer
Six Sigma Black Belt | Business Process Management | Business Results | NPV Example
Example: NPV Answer
168
Other Benefits
Although financial benefits weigh most heavily in the decision to proceed with a Six
Sigma project, other benefits also accrue to the organization and may be considered in
the decision-making process.
Other benefits to the organization from a successful process improvement project may
include:
improved market position relative to competitors.
improved ability to meet customer needs, especially enhanced service.
aligned organization behaviors with vision and values.
newly created market opportunities.
project infused spirit of continuous improvement.
improved employee morale.
improved overall productivity.
decreased cycle time.
increased simplicity.
169
Lesson Summary
Six Sigma focuses on using a systematic approach to addressing issues with quality. In
part, this is achieved through:
a thorough analysis of the business processes.
understanding who will be impacted by the Six Sigma project.
identifying all customers and deriving customer requirements from a variety of
data sources.
listening to the voice of the customer.
assessing the cost of quality.
determining whether the benefits of a project outweigh the costs associated with
its undertaking.
Rollover Page Resources to view a summary of the metrics and a comprehensive
matrix of the data analysis tools discussed in this lesson.
In the next lesson, the project management methodology for Six Sigma projects is
highlighted.
170
Data Analysis Tools
171
Data Analysis Tools
172
Data Analysis Tools
together simultaneously, in
3-D.
An X-shaped matrix relates
four groups of items. Each
group is related to two
others in a circular fashion.
A roof-shaped matrix relates
one group of items to itself.
It is usually used along with
an L- or T-shaped matrix.
Prioritization Matrix A prioritization matrix is a When prioritizing the
decision making tool using a variables with the greatest
systematic process to narrow significance.
choices. It is a variation of an When reaching consensus in
L-shaped matrix (discussed in small teams.
Matrix Diagrams). A When comparing a few
prioritization matrix allows raters
options to specific standards.
to rank the options against
When narrowing a list of
pre-determined scales, weights
and criteria to determine order of options to one choice.
importance. When making decisions
based on multiple criteria
(best when used for six to
eight criteria).
When selecting one product,
approach, supplier, option or
problem.
173
Metrics Summarized
Metric Formula
Defects per Unit (DPU) DPU = Defects / Units
Parts per Million (PPM) PPM = DPU x 1,000,000
Defects per Million DPMO = (Defects/Total
Opportunities (DPMO) Opportunities) x
1,000,000 OR
174
Lesson Bibliography
175
Six Sigma Black Belt
Project Management
Lesson Introduction
177
Lesson Introduction
Define, select and apply techniques that support and sustain team member
participation and commitment.
Use effective and appropriate communication techniques for different situations
to overcome organizational barriers to success.
Management and planning tools
Define, select and use affinity diagrams, interrelationship digraphs, tree diagrams,
prioritization matrices, matrix diagrams, process decision program (PDPC) charts
and activity network diagrams.
178
Lesson Overview
The tools and objectives of the Project Management lesson are illustrated below.
179
Six Sigma Black Belt
Project Management
Project Charter and Plan
Learning Objectives
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Project Charter and Plan
Concept: Learning Objectives
At the end of this Project Management topic, all learners will be able to:
compare, select and explain elements of a project's charter and plan.
plan the project using tools such as Gantt chart, program evaluation and review
technique (PERT) chart and planning trees.
create data-driven and fact-driven project documentation using spreadsheets,
storyboards, phased reviews, management reviews and presentations to the
executive team.
create and negotiate the charter, including objectives, scope, boundaries,
resources, project transition and project closure.
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Six Sigma Green Belt web-based
Certification Preparation Course.
181
Project Charter
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Project Charter and Plan
Concept: Project Charter
182
Project Charter Elements
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Project Charter and Plan
Task: Project Charter Elements
Listed below are project charter elements. Click each term below to learn more. To
view the a charter template, roll over Page Resources and click Project Charter
Template. To view a completed charter, roll over Page Resources and click Project
Charter Example.
Business Case
The business case is a short summary of the strategic reasons for the project.
The justification for a business case would typically involve at least one of the
following:
Cost per unit
Quality or defect rate
Cycle time
Good business cases should:
Define one primary business metric.
Focus on a process rather that a cost account.
Quantify a financial impact.
Focus on the output (product/service) for the external customer.
Provide details regarding the baseline performance of the primary business
measure to ensure that this is really a problem, not an exception.
Determine the gap between the baseline performance of the primary business
measure and the business objective.
Problem Statement
The problem statement will detail the issue that the project team wants to improve.
From the perspective of owners and relevant stakeholders, a major cause of project
failure is the lack of clarity in describing the problem. Develop the problem statement
as thoroughly as possible with the information you have. The problem statement is a
crucial part of the charter.
Problem cases include:
historical data
what areas of the business are affected
how long the problem has existed
any other symptoms of the problem
The project description, along with the entire charter, should be reviewed by and with
owners and appropriate stakeholders to ensure the right problem is being addressed
and the anticipated solution will fix the "real" problem.
Problem statements are discussed further in the Define lesson of this course.
Project Scope
The project scope is the specific aspect of the problem that will be addressed, and
serves to specify the boundaries of the project. The project scope is discussed further
in the Define lesson of this course along with tools that help determine the scope.
183
Project Charter Elements
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Project Charter and Plan
Task: Project Charter Elements
Goal Statement
As discussed later in this lesson and in the Define lesson, the goal statement should
specifically outline what you hope to achieve at the end of the project.
Goals should:
Be carefully thought out and expressed.
Specify how completing the project will lead to improvements over the status
quo. You should be able to clearly describe the outcomes, deliverables and
benefits to stakeholders and customers.
Provide the criteria you need to evaluate the success of the project in terms of
time, costs, and resources.
Be reviewed by the core team, which must reach consensus before moving to the
next phase of the project.
Resources
In terms of the project charter, resources are the people required to complete the
project. In the Team Leadership topic of this lesson, you will read more about the
creation of teams and the roles and responsibilities of team members.
184
Work Breakdown Structure
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Project Charter and Plan
Concept: Work Breakdown Structure
The work breakdown structure (WBS) is a hierarchical chart representing all the
activities that must be completed in order to finish the project. It may be completed as
a tree diagram or an outline. In essence, the WBS is like an organizational chart for a
project. The idea behind the WBS is to break larger tasks (or milestones) into
individual components. Typically, a work breakdown structure will include three
levels. However, for more complex projects, it may involve as many as five levels.
Procedure
1. Gather input from the project team by using questionnaires, interviews, group
sessions and historical data.
2. Restate the project mission and objectives and confirm that they are correct.
3. Define the project in terms of major elements of work, or deliverables (level 1
categories).
4. Break each level 1 work element into detailed activities and milestones (levels 2,
3, etc.).
5. Identify an activity owner and deliverable for each activity at the lowest WBS
level.
185
Planning Tools
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Project Charter and Plan
Concept: Planning Tools
In developing the project plan, the Six Sigma leader uses a variety of tools. In the next
section, we will explore and explain the following tools:
Gantt chart
Critical path analysis
PERT chart
186
Gantt Chart
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Project Charter and Plan
Concept: Gantt Chart
The Gantt chart was developed by Henry Gantt in the 1910s. According to The Quality
Toolbox, Second Edition, Nancy Tague states, "A Gantt chart is a bar chart that
shows the tasks of a project, when each must take place, and how long each will take.
As the project progresses, bars are shaded to show which tasks have been completed."
The Gantt chart may also be known as a "milestones chart" or "project bar chart."
Benefits
Easy for people to understand
Helps all parties understand the project
Monitors the project's progress
Manages the dependencies between tasks
Displays the project schedule and status at a glance
Assesses the time needed to complete the project
Stimulates thinking among group members about accomplishing the goal
187
Gantt Chart Cont.
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Project Charter and Plan
Concept: Gantt Chart Cont.
Procedure
In The Quality Toolbox, Second Edition, Tague suggests the following steps for
creating a Gantt chart:
1. Identify the following tasks needed to complete the project:
a. Key milestones (important check points)
b. Time required for each task
c. The sequence:
i. Tasks to be finished before the next task can begin
ii. Simultaneous tasks
iii. Tasks to be completed before each milestone
2. Draw a horizontal time axis along the top or bottom of a page, and then mark off
in an appropriate scale for the length of the tasks (days or weeks).
3. Down the left side of the page, write each project task and milestone in order:
a. For each event happening at a point in time, draw a diamond (unfilled)
under the time for that event.
b. For activities occurring over a period of time, draw a bar (unfilled) spanning
the appropriate times on the timeline:
i. Align the left end of the bar with the time the activity begins.
ii. Align the right end with the time the activity concludes.
iii. Ensure that every task of the project is on the chart.
4. As events and activities take place, shade the diamonds and bars to show
completion. For tasks in-progress, estimate the percentage of completion and
shade the appropriate amount.
5. Place a vertical marker to show the current date. When posting the chart on the
wall, a heavy dark string hung vertically across the chart with two thumbtacks is
an easy way to show the current time.
Use When
Tague states that Gantt charts are used when:
"
scheduling and monitoring tasks within a project.
communicating plans or status of a project.
the steps of the project or process, their process, their sequence, and their
duration are known.
"
User Tips
Tague also states:
188
Gantt Chart Cont.
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Project Charter and Plan
Concept: Gantt Chart Cont.
"
Sometimes Gantt charts have additional columns for showing details, such as the
amount of time the tasks is expected to take, resources or skill level needed, or
person responsible.
Beware of identifying reviews or approvals as events unless they really will take
place at a specific time, such as a meeting. Reviews and approvals often can take
days or weeks.
It can be useful to indicate the critical points on the chart with bold or colored
outlines of the bars.
"
189
Critical Path Analysis
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Project Charter and Plan
Concept: Critical Path Analysis
Developed by project managers in the 1950s, critical path analysis (CPA) is one of
several planning tools for demonstrating and viewing chronological tasks, identifying
possible timing risks, and establishing the least amount of time for the project/process.
CPA is also known as critical path method (CPM).
Benefits
Displays a graphical model of the project
Predicts the shortest time required to complete the project
Emphasizes activities critical to maintaining the schedule
Provides a timing reference point throughout the project
Identifies interrelationships between tasks
190
Critical Path Analysis Cont.
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Project Charter and Plan
Concept: Critical Path Analysis Cont.
Procedure
1. Use sticky notes to individually list all tasks in the project. Underneath each task,
draw a horizontal arrow pointing right.
2. Arrange the sticky notes in the appropriate sequence (from left to right).
3. Between each pair of tasks, draw circles to represent events and to mark the
beginning or end of a task.
4. Label all events, in sequence, with numbers. Label all tasks, in sequence, with
letters.
5. For each task, estimate the completion time. Write the time below the arrow for
each task.
6. Draw the critical path by highlighting the longest path from the beginning to the
end of the project.
Use When
Developing an optimal plan for the project
Identifying the most critical issues/processes that would affect the overall project
time
Identifying the longest path through the process causing the most risk to miss the
deadline (the critical path)
Determining fixed time targets
User Tips
All activities begin and end at circles (nodes: a stage of completion).
All activities with no predecessor branch from node 1.
All activities with no successor point to the last node (the highest number).
191
PERT Chart
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Project Charter and Plan
Concept: PERT Chart
First developed by the Navy in the 1950s to manage complex projects, program
evaluation and review technique (PERT) charts are powerful tools for reducing the
time and cost for completing a project. PERT's planning technique accounts for
randomness in time requirements. PERT charts fall under the category of network
tools similar to the activity network diagram detailed later in this lesson under the
Management and Planning Tools topic.
Benefits
Provides a means of estimating the project completion time
Demonstrates the probability for completing the project ahead of schedule
Identifies start and end dates as well as critical path activities that affect
completion time
Organizes tasks in established timeframes
Acts as a decision-making tool
Identifies where and when parallel activities occur
Serves as an evaluation tool to determine the effect of changes
Key Terms
The following terms are important to keep in mind when using PERT charts:
Critical path refers to the sequence of tasks (path) that takes the longest time and
determines the project’s completion date. Any delay of tasks on a critical path
will delay the project completion time.
Slack time refers to the time an activity can be delayed without delaying the
entire project. Tasks on the critical path have a zero slack time. Slack time is the
difference between the latest allowable date and the earliest expected date. It is
represented by the following nomenclature:
T/E = The earliest time (date) on which an event can be expected to occur
T/L = The latest time (date) on which an event can occur without extending
the completion date of the project
Slack time = T/L – T/E
An event is the starting or ending point for a group of tasks.
192
PERT Chart
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Project Charter and Plan
Concept: PERT Chart
Activity is the work required to proceed from one event or point in time to
another.
193
PERT Chart cont.
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Project Charter and Plan
Concept: PERT Chart cont.
Procedure
1. Use sticky notes to individually list all tasks in the project. Underneath each task,
draw a horizontal arrow pointing right.
2. Arrange the sticky notes in the appropriate sequence (from left to right).
3. Between each two tasks, draw circles to represent events, to mark the beginning
or end of a task.
4. Label all events, in sequence, with numbers. Label all tasks, in sequence, with
letters.
5. For each activity, make three estimates regarding time requirements: the shortest
possible time, the most likely time, and the longest time.
6. Determine the critical path.
7. Adjustments to the PERT Chart should be made to reflect any changes to the
project along the way.
Use When
Planning and controlling projects
Determining feasibility of meeting deadlines
Identifying possible bottlenecks in the project
Evaluating the effects of changes in the project requirements
Evaluating the effects of deviating from the schedule
Evaluating the effects of diverting resources from the project, or redirecting
additional resources to the project
Constructing a chart showing start and finish times for each activity as well as
relationships to other activities in the project
Identifying critical activities to be completed on time
Gathering information for improving the project schedule
User Tips
Use a Pareto analysis to identify those critical elements that are most likely to
lead to significant improvement in overall project completion time.
Although time estimates are subjective, they are very important.
Be sure to include documentation tasks because they can be time consuming.
PERT is a variation on critical path that is more skeptical of the time estimates.
To use the PERT chart, first estimate the following for each activity:
Shortest possible time each activity will take
Most likely length of time each activity will take
Longest time possible each activity will take
Calculate the time for each activity with the following formula:[(shortest time) +
(4 x likely time) + (longest time)]/ 6
194
PERT Chart Example - Table
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Project Charter and Plan
Concept: PERT Chart Example - Table
Constructing a PERT network requires two inputs: events required to complete the
project and the sequence of these events. The network can be created when answers
are provided to the following three questions:
1. What job immediately precedes this job?
2. What job immediately follows this job?
3. What jobs can run concurrently?
The following table illustrates a sequence of events:
Activity Event Title/Code Immediate Activity Time
Predecessors (Weeks)
A-B A: Contract signed - 1
B-C B: Long lead A 5
procurement
B-D C: Bill of materials B 2
C-E D: Manufacturing B 2
schedules
D-E E: Manufacturing C and D 2
plans
E-F F: Start-up activity E 2
195
PERT Chart Example - Simplified PERT Chart
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Project Charter and Plan
Concept: PERT Chart Example - Simplified PERT Chart
Data from the sequence-of-events table is then converted into a PERT network. The
following PERT network is based on the data presented in the table on the previous
page. The bold line represents the critical path, or the longest time span through the
total series of project events.
The critical path in in the above PERT chart tells management two things:
There is no slack time in any of the events on this path. Any slippage in the
schedule will cause a corresponding slippage in the end date of the program,
unless this slippage can be recovered on the critical path during any of the
downstream events.
Because events on this path are the most critical to the success of the project (in
terms of resource scheduling and allocation), management must examine these
events carefully if it seeks to improve overall performance on the project.
196
PERT Chart Example - PERT Chart with Slack Time
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Project Charter and Plan
Concept: PERT Chart Example - PERT Chart with Slack Time
An adaptation of a PERT network with slack time appears in the Figure 1. The event
with slack time is D. On large, complex projects, PERT networks can subdivide events
into subevents, as shown in Figure 2.
197
Project Documentation
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Project Charter and Plan
Task: Project Documentation
Status Reports
Status reports are written with a standardized format and formal tone, specific to each
organization. The report is delivered periodically to the members of the project team.
Status reports provide information, such as:
Where the project is in relation to the plan
Risks or issues affecting the time, scope or cost of the project
Action plan to address the risks or issues
Requests for management assistance or intervention
The status report may even include other documentation, such as:
Milestone charts
Performance reports
Budget reports
To see a sample, roll over Page Resources, and click Status Report.
Spreadsheets
Another way to monitor the project in terms of status, deadlines and budget is to use
spreadsheet applications such as MS Excel. Spreadsheets provide an excellent visual
representation of information when project management software, such as MS Project,
is not available.
Project Storyboards
Project storyboards are useful for depicting a sequence of events or explaining a
process to someone not familiar with a workflow or procedure. Storyboards are also
helpful when conveying project information involving changes that are more easily
explained in a visual manner than with words.
A common application for project storyboards is the use of before-and-after pictures.
Before-and-after-pictures are particularly helpful for facility or product redesign
projects.
Storyboards are frequently used when preparing a presentation to the executive team,
and allow the team to collect their thoughts in a way conducive to soliciting support
and obtaining buy-in from top management for a Six Sigma project.
To see a sample, roll over Page Resources, and click Project Storyboard.
198
Project Documentation
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Project Charter and Plan
Task: Project Documentation
Phased Reviews
Phased reviews are also called "milestone reviews" or "tollgates". Typically there are 5
reviews in a Six Sigma project corresponding to the 5 phases of the Six Sigma
DMAIC (Define-Measure-Analyze-Improve-Control) process, which will be
discussed in upcoming lessons. Phased reviews offer an opportunity for the project
team to assess the progress in relationship to the project’s goals. They also allow the
project team to regroup and make any necessary changes or modifications to the
project.
Management Reviews
Management reviews are meetings between the project leader (typically the Black
Belt) and the management team. They allow the project leader to update management
on the status of the project in terms of financial progress.
In some organizations tollgates are both an opportunity to review the project with
senior management as well as an opportunity to update key stakeholders on the
project’s overall progress (i.e., its current phase).
199
Charter Negotiation
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Project Charter and Plan
Task: Charter Negotiation
Objectives
What is the purpose of the project?
What do we hope to accomplish?
Scope
What, specifically, is included in this project?
What is not included in this project?
Boundaries
What areas of the company are included?
What departments are involved?
What levels within each department are involved?
Resources
Who is available to work on the project?
How much of their time will be spent with project work?
What is the budget?
What software will be available?
Are special skills or certifications needed?
Project Closure
At the end of the project,
The Black Belt support draws to a close.
Successes are reviewed and compared with goals for process improvement and
financial benefits.
The team members should be rewarded and recognized for their efforts.
200
Assessment - Project Charter
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Project Charter and Plan
Concept: Assessment - Project Charter
Read the following statements about project charters. Click True or False for each
item.
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See the online version to view this content. ]
201
Project Charter Pyramid Game
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Project Charter and Plan
Concept: Project Charter Pyramid Game
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See the online version to view this content. ]
202
Six Sigma Black Belt
Project Management
Team Leadership
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Project Management topic, all learners will be able to:
know the elements of launching a team and why they are important: clear
purpose, goals, commitment, ground rules, roles and responsibilities of team
members, schedules, support from management and team empowerment.
select team members who have appropriate skills sets (e.g., self-facilitation,
technical/subject-matter expertise), and create teams with appropriate numbers of
members and representation.
facilitate the stages of team evolution, including forming, storming, norming,
performing, adjourning and recognition.
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Six Sigma Green Belt web-based
Certification Preparation Course, the ASQ Foundations in Quality Learning Series:
Certified Quality Manager and the ASQ Foundations in Quality Learning Series:
Certified Quality Engineer.
204
Initiating Teams
205
Ground Rules
In the initial stages, team members need basic guidelines to add predictability to their
work environment and create a sense of safety around team interactions. Ground
rules are group norms regarding how meetings will be run, how team members will
interact, and what kind of behavior is acceptable. Each member is expected to respect
these rules during the project’s duration.
Some areas to consider when establishing ground rules include:
Logistics
Regular meeting time and place
Procedure for notifying members of meetings
Responsibilities for taking notes, setting up the room, etc.
Attendance
Legitimate reasons for missing a meeting
Procedure for informing the team leader when a meeting will be missed
Procedure for providing updates to absent members
Promptness
Acceptable definition of “on-time”
Value of promptness
Ways to encourage promptness
Participation
Basic conversational courtesies (i.e., listening attentively)
Tolerable interruptions (i.e., phone calls, operational emergencies)
Confidentiality guidelines
Value of timely task completion
Voting protocol (i.e., an absent member votes with the majority)
206
Roles and Responsibilities
It has been well documented that teams can outperform individuals. But simply
pulling a group together to work on a project does not result in an effective team. A
group becomes an effective team when members learn to work together, capitalizing
on their knowledge, skills, and a creativity borne of their diverse perspectives on
work.
Team members must fulfill their respective responsibilities. Provisions must be in
place to manage a variety of group dynamics related to team agendas, operational
guidelines, and how to best handle distractions and disruptive behavior. With such
guidelines in place, the stage is set for individuals to realize their part in the greater
whole.
Teams have key players who carry out specific duties and orchestrate team activities.
These fundamental roles emerge in teams:
A team sponsor (or champion) who fulfills a guidance role and supports the
team’s activities, helps secure resources, and clears a path in the organization.
Generally an executive or manager in the organization.
A team leader, typically the Black Belt, who carries out the appropriate
leadership functions to help the team effectively accomplish its purpose.
Team members who participate and carry out agreed-to assignments.
A facilitator who is trained in working with groups and helps keep the team on
track.
Organizations may use different labels for these roles, and one individual may fulfill
multiple assignments. For example, the facilitator role may be carried out by the team
leader. However, the number of key players is not important as long as the work gets
done.
The following pages provide a closer look at each of these four key roles.
207
Team Sponsor or Champion
Teams need the executive support and direction from top management to achieve their
best results. An individual executive or manager may fulfill the role of team sponsor
.
The sponsor generally has a stake in the outcomes of the project, has influence in the
organization, and may even select the team members and team leader.
A team sponsor does not serve as a member of the team. The team sponsor supports
the team, offering guidance as necessary and empowering the team to take actions and
accomplish results.
According to The Team® Handbook, the following duties of a Sponsor or Champion
occur in three phases:
208
Team Sponsor or Champion
209
Team Leader
The team leader may be selected by the sponsor and can be a supervisor, manager, or
employee in the related project area. In a Six Sigma project, the team leader is the
Black Belt. Team leaders use their knowledge of the project to guide the team, yet they
do not dominate team meetings or force the group to self-determined conclusions.
The team leader:
Creates and maintains channels within the organization that allow the team to do
its work.
Facilitates communication between the team and the team sponsor.
Maintains all team records and meeting notes.
Sets the agenda and makes sure the team sticks to it.
Helps the team resolve any problems that may arise.
Leads/drives the implementation of team recommendations.
To carry out their responsibilities, team leaders need to be competent at leadership,
coaching and facilitation skills.
210
Team Members
Teams generally have 5-8 members who are appointed by the sponsor or guidance
team in consultation with the team leader and facilitator. Depending on the nature of
the project or mission, the team may consist of cross-functional or even
cross-company employees.
Becoming part of a team is a big responsibility. Team members accept their positions
with the knowledge that they are to contribute fully to the project—sharing their
talents and abilities, participating actively in team meetings, and completing tasks to
the best of their abilities. If team members are appropriately selected based on their
skill set and current jobs, team membership can be an integral part of their job
responsibilities, rather than an added burden.
In general, team members are responsible for:
Preparing for team meetings.
Helping to adhere to the meeting schedule and ground rules.
Participating in team activities.
Completing assignments between meetings.
During team meetings, team members are responsible for:
Maintaining good body language and eye contact.
Avoiding judgment of others and suspending judgment of ideas.
Understanding what was said before responding.
Asking questions to get information and to ensure understanding.
Participating in team discussions.
Refraining from dominating team discussions.
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Facilitator
Facilitators have special training in project management, group process, quality tools,
etc. They help team members work together to execute quality processes. The
facilitator, who is typically the Black Belt, can also be a consultant to the team helping
monitor team progress and making suggestions for process improvements.
The facilitator is primarily concerned with process and how decisions are made rather
than what decisions are made. As a result, the facilitator must have:
Skills in interpersonal communication, meeting conduct and group process.
Good understanding of quality tools and their use.
The ability to teach team members about necessary quality tools.
In addition, the facilitator can help the team leader:
Form groups
Build teams
Give feedback
Resolve conflicts
212
Team Empowerment and Management Support
Empowerment occurs when employees have the authority to make decisions and take
action in their work areas without prior approval. For example, an operator can stop a
production process if he or she detects a problem, and a customer service
representative can send out a replacement product if a customer reports a problem
with a defective one.
Employee empowerment involves shifting knowledge, responsibility and authority to
persons who actually operate business processes.
Empowerment takes on added importance in a team setting, where employees are
responsible for all work activity and performance results in their respective areas.
Click each of the topics below to learn more about the role that management can take
in empowering teams.
Establishing boundaries
Before a project begins, the sponsor/champion should clearly define the process or
problem that the team will study, identify the desired outcomes, and then give team
members the authority and responsibility to achieve them. Team members also need
to understand that empowerment requires respecting individual boundaries.
213
Selecting Team Members
214
Stages of Team Development
As teams are formed, they typically go through a series of stages, from formation to
recognition. The first 4 stages – forming, storming, norming and performing – have
historically been used in management theory to describe team behavior. Over time a
fifth stage – adjourning and recognition – was added. These stages are both normal
and expected in a team’s transformation to a productive performing unit. All are
necessary for the team to grow, to face up to challenges, tackle problems, find
solutions, plan work and deliver results.
The following pages will describe each of the following stages of team development:
Forming: startup
Storming: conflict
Norming: cohesion
Performing: focus
Adjourning and Recognition: work ends
As you learn about the different stages, keep in mind individuals, dyads, small groups,
and even entire teams move back and forth among the various stages. A Performing
team can slip back into major conflict (Storming) given a certain set of circumstances.
Team leaders must be aware of this possibility and offer guidance as needed at any
given stage.
215
Forming
The forming stage is synonymous with startup. During this period, team members
may not yet share a complete understanding of the group’s mission. Emotions such as
excitement, anxiety and hope take center stage. The goal during the forming stage is
for team members to get to know one another and to become familiar with the team’s
mission and process. To meet this end, creativity and innovation are essential and
mistakes are welcomed as signs of learning.
Team members feel:
eager with high expectations.
anxious about how they will fit in and what is expected of them.
dependent on authority to provide direction.
Primary issues:
Inclusion and trust
Willingness to involve others
Desire to be included in the team’s processes
Desire to feel they can trust the team leader and other team members
Task accomplishment and morale:
Task accomplishment is low to moderate
Team energy focused on defining goals, tasks and strategies for accomplishment
Morale is high
216
Storming
Storming is the next stage of team development. At this point, team members may
recognize that tasks are different or far more difficult than they originally thought.
This situation may induce a general sense of resentment and irritation among team
members. Conflict may arise as members argue about next steps. Outside demands
and expectations for the team’s performance create added pressure. Competition and
control take precedence over collaboration and teamwork.
Although it can be contentious, the storming stage is crucial to the growth of the
team. The goal of storming is for team members to develop an understanding for
other members’ interpersonal styles, to recognize the need for cohesion, and to
reestablish the team’s focus.
Storming can also be detrimental to a team if individuals do not find ways to
overcome obstacles and work together to accomplish group goals. Conflict resolution
techniques, which are discussed later in this lesson, may be required to prevent injury
to the team.
Team members feel:
dissatisfied with dependency on authority.
angry and frustrated about goals and tasks.
negatively toward the formal team leader and other team members.
incompetent or confused.
competitive for power or control.
Primary issues:
Power and control
May not want to follow directions
May want to influence the direction of the team
Task accomplishment and morale:
Task accomplishment may be disrupted
Skill development increases as conflicts are addressed
Morale is low
217
Norming
218
Performing
At the performing stage, team members feel relationship cohesion and recognize that
individuals have differing talents. Relationship tension has subsided, and the team can
problem solve and begin to implement changes in a relatively predictable environment
as a competent, cohesive unit. The predominant feeling is a sense of pride and
accomplishment. For a performing team, the primary goal is more successful task
completions.
219
Adjourning
220
Recognition
221
Assessment - Team Stages
Read each definition relating to team stages. Match the terms below to the
corresponding definitions by dragging each term to the appropriate box.
[ This page in the e-Learning course contains an animation or activity that cannot be printed.
See the online version to view this content. ]
222
Six Sigma Black Belt
Project Management
Team Dynamics and Performance
Learning Objectives
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Team Dynamics and Performance
Concept: Learning Objectives
At the end of this Project Management topic, all learners will be able to:
recognize and apply the basic steps in team building: goals, roles and
responsibilities, introductions and both stated and hidden agendas.
apply coaching, mentoring and facilitation techniques to guide a team and
overcome problems such as overbearing, dominant, or reluctant participants, the
unquestioned acceptance of opinions as facts, groupthink, feuding, floundering,
the rush to accomplishment, attribution, discounts and "plops" and digressions
and tangents.
measure team progress in relation to goals, objectives and metrics that support
team success.
define, select and apply team tools such as nominal group technique, force field
analysis, multivoting and conversion/diversion.
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Six Sigma Green Belt web-based
Certification Preparation Course, the ASQ Foundations in Quality Learning Series:
Certified Quality Manager and the ASQ Foundations in Quality Learning Series:
Certified Quality Engineer.
224
Team Building Techniques
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Team Dynamics and Performance
Concept: Team Building Techniques
225
Team Goals
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Team Dynamics and Performance
Concept: Team Goals
Developing and agreeing upon team goals are key factors contributing to dynamic,
productive teams.
In the majority of situations, by the time a team convenes, the charter or purpose for
the team’s formation will have been set. The team members must ultimately have a
shared vision of what will happen by the end of the project. In order to help team
members understand their purpose, the following should be discussed with them:
The nature of the problem
Why this assignment is important to the organization and its customers
How the team is connected to other organizational teams and departments,
customers, as well as the organization’s mission, goals, and strategies
What boundaries and constraints exist (e.g., time limits or budget)
Start and end dates, key milestones
Key measures that will define success
The team’s level of autonomy and authority in decision making
Once a team convenes, members should review and discuss their charter — that is,
what they are trying to accomplish and why and how the team’s purpose is aligned to
organizational strategies.
Goals (or objectives) are defined as quantitative statements of future expectations that
include a deadline for completion. Team objectives should be approached using the
following guidelines, collectively known as "SMART":
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Team Roles and Responsibilities
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Team Dynamics and Performance
Task: Team Roles and Responsibilities
The roles of facilitator, timekeeper, note-taker and scribe should be assigned and can
be rotated among team members from meeting to meeting.
Facilitator
The facilitator, in many cases also the team leader, is the one who assumes overall
responsibility for keeping the meeting focused and tracking against the agenda. The
following activities are the responsibility of the facilitator:
Opening and closing the meeting
Facilitating discussion
Managing participation
Timekeeper
A timekeeper, as the name implies, keeps track of time. This individual alerts the
team when time allocations are almost up without policing the agenda or mandating
that the team move on.
Note-taker
The note-taker ensures that meeting minutes are recorded, distributed and/or posted.
The note-taker will record the following:
Key topics
Discussion points
Action items
Future agenda items
Scribe
A scribe captures and posts ideas on an easel chart or whiteboard during the meetings,
including those items that remain unresolved during a meeting and must be noted on
the “parking lot.”
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Team Introductions
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Team Dynamics and Performance
Concept: Team Introductions
Employees may arrive at the first meeting distracted, whether about their overloaded
schedule for the day, personal issues, or the meeting they just attended. In addition to
these distractions, team members may approach their initial meeting with anxiety
about working with one another. Managers can help address anxiety and ease
members into the meeting by conducting team introductions, or “icebreakers,” to
allow for spontaneous interaction and conversation. Several techniques, as identified
in The Team® Handbook, are discussed below.
Ask team members to share basic information with the group, such as:
Name and job title.
What they like best about their work.
Recent successes in their work.
What they currently find most challenging in their job.
How they came to be on the team.
If the team members are comfortable, they may also want to share information about
their families or interests outside of work.
To view an exercise that can be used during team introductions, roll over Page
Resources and click Team Activity.
228
Team Activity
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Team Dynamics and Performance | Team Introductions
Example: Team Activity
Paired Introductions
Pair up team members who don’t know each other well and have them get acquainted
by asking each other:
What is your name?
What is your job?
How long have you been at the organization?
What got you started here?
What do you like best about your job?
How did you become part of this team?
What is your favorite hobby?
It is helpful if these questions are posted on and easel in the front of the room. After
the paired introductions, ask partners to introduce each other to the rest of the team.
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Stated and Hidden Agendas
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Team Dynamics and Performance
Concept: Stated and Hidden Agendas
Within teams, there are two types of agendas: those that are stated and those that are
hidden.
Stated Agendas
A stated agenda is essential to an effective team meeting. It helps keep team
members on task by defining the meeting's purpose and identifying who will discuss
what and when. Ideally, a meeting agenda is prepared and distributed to all team
members before the meeting.
A good agenda typically includes the following elements:
Objective of the meeting
Allocations of time for each topic
Time on the agenda to review and revise the agenda
Agenda items listed in order
Action items to be discussed from the previous meeting
Time at the end of the meeting to evaluate the meeting and summarize action
items
Roll over Page Resources and click Agenda to see an example.
Hidden Agendas
Hidden agendas are much different than stated agendas. They typically represent
individual interests that may or may not complement the team’s purpose and goals.
To help surface hidden agendas for the group discussion before project work begins,
managers may utilize certain discussion techniques.
To see two examples of discussion techniques that can be used to surface hidden
agendas, roll over Page Resources and click Technique Examples.
230
Technique Examples
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Team Dynamics and Performance | Stated and Hidden
Agendas
Example: Technique Examples
231
Team Facilitation Techniques
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Team Dynamics and Performance
Concept: Team Facilitation Techniques
Even the most well-intentioned teams can slide into dysfunctional behaviors that
detract from team growth and performance. The table below outlines some
counter-productive behavioral traits along with recommended solutions.
232
Team Performance Evaluation
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Team Dynamics and Performance
Concept: Team Performance Evaluation
When teams move from one project to the next without pause, they are missing
valuable opportunities for evaluation and improvement. Teams that move too quickly
on to their next project also miss their opportunity to celebrate successful outcomes
with recognition and rewards.
Team performance evaluations help members assess how effective their interactions
are with one another and how durable their solutions are when implemented in the
organization. The data from these evaluations and assessments can help the team's
processes improve further, thereby guaranteeing the team's continued success.
Team performance evaluations may be carried out by team members themselves or by
an outside party. The following pages describe several methods for performing team
evaluations.
233
Self-evaluation
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Team Dynamics and Performance
Concept: Self-evaluation
The team objectives become the evaluation criteria. Measurement against goals and
objectives can be performed at the end of each team meeting or at the conclusion of
the project.
A common technique for assessing behavior is to compile a short list of questions
along with a rating scale and distribute it directly after a team meeting. Roll over
Page Resources and click Team Objective Evaluation to see an example. Another
technique, the Team Effectiveness Profile, is one in which team members assess their
effectiveness in four different areas:
Mission, planning and goal setting
Group roles
Group operating processes
Interpersonal relationships
Measurement against task criteria typically requires “hard data", such as the number of
dollars saved or volume per unit increased. Figures from hard data are useful in
assessing progress during a project and measuring overall success after project
completion.
234
Team Objective Evaluation
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Team Dynamics and Performance | Self-evaluation
Example: Team Objective Evaluation
235
External Evaluation
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Team Dynamics and Performance
Concept: External Evaluation
236
Team Tools
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Team Dynamics and Performance
Concept: Team Tools
There are a variety of tools available to assist teams in making decisions, such as:
Nominal group technique
Force field analysis
Multivoting
Two types of thinking that go into each of these team tools are Diversion and
Conversion.
Diversion refers to those team activities that produce many different options. When a
team needs a number of fresh ideas, diversion techniques such as brainstorming could
be used to anticipate obstacles, or to recognize strengths, weaknesses, opportunities or
threats.
Conversion activities are used to narrow the list of options and prioritize them for
action. Examples are the nominal group technique and multivoting.
These tools are discussed on the following pages.
237
Nominal Group Technique
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Team Dynamics and Performance
Concept: Nominal Group Technique
Nominal group technique is a consensus planning tool that helps prioritize issues and
encourages participation from the entire group. The illustration below shows an
example of nominal group technique using 4 items.
Procedure
1. Participants are brought together for a discussion session led by a facilitator.
2. After the topic has been presented to session participants and they have had an
opportunity to ask questions or briefly discuss the scope of the topic, they are
asked to take a few minutes to think about and write down their responses.
3. The session facilitator will then ask each participant to read, and elaborate on,
one of their responses. These are noted on a flipchart.
4. Once everyone has given a response, participants will be asked for a second or
third response, until all of their answers have been noted on flipchart sheets
posted around the room.
5. Once duplications are eliminated, each response is assigned a letter or number.
6. Participants are then asked to choose up to 10 responses that they feel are the
most important and rank them according to their relative importance.
7. These rankings are collected from all participants, and then aggregated.
238
Force Field Analysis
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Team Dynamics and Performance
Concept: Force Field Analysis
Force field analysis is a tool that can be used when a team is identifying causes of a
problem or is planning a change, such as the implementation of a solution.
Procedure
1. Write the desired change or problem at the top of easel. Draw a vertical line
underneath.
2. Brainstorm all the driving forces that support the change (or cause the problem to
occur). Write these on the left side of the line. Determine how strong each force
is. In the area between the words and the centerline, draw an arrow pointing to
the centerline. The arrow’s length can be used to represent the strength of each
particular driving force. An alternative to different arrow lengths would be to
assign a score (between 1 and 5) to each force.
3. Brainstorm all the restraining forces that hinder the change (or prevent the
problem from occurring). Write these on the right side of the line. Determine
how strong each force is. In the area between the words and the centerline, draw
an arrow pointing to the centerline. The arrow’s length can be used to represent
the strength of each particular restraining force. An alternative to different arrow
lengths would be to assign a score (between 1 and 5) to each force.
4. For a desired change, discuss various means to diminish or eliminate the
restraining force. For a problem, discuss various means to diminish or eliminate
the driving forces. Focus on the strongest forces.
Note: It is possible to have a one-to-many relationship between driving and restraining
forces. For example the driving force--control rising maintenance costs could have
two restraining forces--cost and disruption.
239
Multivoting
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Team Dynamics and Performance
Concept: Multivoting
Procedure
1. Add together like items if possible to decrease redundancy.
2. Number or letter each item.
3. Decide how many votes each team member is allowed. Depending on the length
of the list, each member will receive 5 to 10 votes. Another option is to include
one-third of the total number of items (e.g., 24 items equals 8).
4. Ask team members to vote on the list of items. Each team member has a set
number of votes, and can spread them out any way they wish (i.e., if one wishes,
all votes could be placed for one single item).
5. Group and count the high scores from the voting activity.
6. If necessary, perform a second vote on only the highly scored items from the first
vote to further narrow the list.
240
Assessment - Facilitation Barriers
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Team Dynamics and Performance
Concept: Assessment - Facilitation Barriers
Read each definition relating to facilitation barriers. Match the terms below to the
corresponding definition by dragging each term to the appropriate box.
[ This page in the e-Learning course contains an animation or activity that cannot be printed.
See the online version to view this content. ]
241
Six Sigma Black Belt
Project Management
Change Agent
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Project Management topic, all learners will be able to:
understand and apply techniques for facilitating or managing organizational
change through change agent methodologies.
understand the inherent structures of an organization (e.g., cultures and
constructs) that present basic barriers to improvement; select and apply
techniques to overcome them.
define, select and apply tools such as consensus techniques, brainstorming,
effort/impact, interest-based bargaining to help conflicting parties (e.g.,
departments, groups, leaders, staff) recognize common goals and how to work
together to achieve them.
define, select and apply techniques that support and sustain team member
participation and commitment.
use effective and appropriate communication techniques for different situations to
overcome organizational barriers to success.
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Six Sigma Green Belt web-based
Certification Preparation Course, the ASQ Foundations in Quality Learning Series:
Certified Quality Manager and the ASQ Foundations in Quality Learning Series:
Certified Quality Engineer.
243
Managing Change
244
Change Agents
245
Roles and Techniques
In The Change Agents’ Handbook, David Hutton describes the role of a change agent
in terms of the following categories:
Educate and work with upper management to Organize a quality assessment to measure
initiate and sustain the transformation things like employee knowledge or resistance
to change
Propose and organize educational activities
(e.g., formal workshops, guest speakers,
off-site visits)
Orchestrate the development of the
improvement plan to meet organizational
goals
Ensure the integration of the improvement
plan into the business plan
Expedite the meeting schedule of upper
management
Support and advise other colleagues Play an active part in discussions and decision
making
Provide guidance to the team on technical
issues
Provide guidance on the selection of suitable
strategies and methods, subject matter experts
and other resources
Help monitor the status of projects in the early
stages
Act as a considerate and discreet advisor on
behavioral issues, relationships and personal
issues
Act as a coach where appropriate
Challenge the top management team if
commitment to change seems to waver
Manage specific projects Act as a project manager or project sponsor
for specific initiatives (e.g., expediting a
customer satisfaction survey or deploying
training throughout the organization)
Develop and manage a support network Identify, train, develop and support others
assigned to lead the change (in addition to top
management)
246
Organizational Roadblocks
247
Structural Barriers
Both vertical and horizontal structures have the potential to introduce structural
barriers to change within an organization.
An organization’s structure may foster a “silo” mentality, whereby each department
focuses on its own interests, procedures and people rather than on cooperating with
other groups to meet customer needs. The resulting structural isolation may increase
the efficiency of individual groups, but it ultimately detracts from the organization’s
ability to meet customer commitments.
Horizontal structures may produce communication barriers between management
levels. For example, potentially negative information at one level may be distorted or
filtered before being passed to higher management. Conversely, management plans
may not be communicated to front-line employees.
While vertical and horizontal structures may exist, one of the most effective ways to
reduce the problems associated with potential barriers is to create a communication
plan. It is important that every area of the organization touched by the project be well
informed. The goal is to make sure each of the work areas understands why the project
is important, how it is progressing, what effect it will have on their department and
what their involvement might be. In essence, the goal is to answer the question, "What
does this mean to me?" The illustration below shows an example of a communication
plan.
As seen in the chart below, some elements to be addressed in a communication plan
include:
The audience
The message to be delivered (specific to each group)
How the message will be communicated
Frequency and timing of updates
Responsible person(s) or team(s)
Plan for receiving and utilizing feedback
248
Cultural Barriers
249
Negotiation Techniques - Overview
Negotiation is a significant part of any group activity. Whenever there are multiple
people with multiple opinions and goals, there is strong potential for disagreement.
The key is to aim for a workable solution mutually acceptable to all parties – that is, to
negotiate.
With the win/win approach, both sides enter negotiations seeking mutual interaction
and benefit. With the remaining three approaches, individuals compete for dominance
before negotiations even begin.
250
Positional Bargaining vs. Principled Negotiation
Negotiation techniques
Set clear objectives for every Save the hardest issues for last.
negotiation item. Respect the importance of face
Establish a broad range of acceptable saving for the other party.
outcomes. Build a reputation for being fair but
Be alert to the real intentions of the firm.
other with respect to goals and Avoid panic; learn to control your
priorities. emotions.
Be well prepared with supporting Measure each move against your
data. objectives and understand how each
Do not hurry. move relates to all others.
Confer with your associates when Remember, compromise is part of
necessary. negotiation.
Stay flexible in your position. Consider the impact of present
negotiations on future negotiations.
251
Conflict Resolution
Given the variety of opinions and desires within an organization, conflict is a natural
part of the decision-making process. When two or more parties are in conflict, they
tend to believe what each wants is fundamentally incompatible with what the other
wants. From this belief stems a common misunderstanding: Conflict is inherently
negative. This is not necessarily the case.
A certain amount of conflict can trigger significant creativity and innovation. For
example, it's Saturday evening and you and your friends are planning a night out at the
movies. Imagine that, in an effort to avoid conflict, the group reluctantly agrees to
your movie selection. While you may enjoy yourself, your friends' satisfaction is
uncertain at best.
Now imagine that you and your friends embrace the conflict. You openly discuss other
people's desires to have dinner or a few drinks and ultimately decide on a cinema grill
where customers can eat and drink while watching the latest movies. In this scenario,
every member of the group finds a certain level of satisfaction with the evening's plan
rather than one person feeling perfectly satisfied while the others are dissatisfied.
Organizations increasingly view conflict as a vital, energizing force that unlocks the
creativity of an organization and allows it to innovate, change and grow. The key is to
proactively manage conflict when it arises.
Conflict resolution is the management of a disputed situation to arrive at a decision
satisfactory to all parties.
Conflict management is achieved through win/win collaborations. As you'll see in the
next section, the negotiation process most compatible with a win/win collaboration is
interest-based bargaining (IBB).
252
Interest-based Bargaining
253
Brainstorming
254
Effort-Impact Technique
The effort/impact technique is another conflict resolution and decision making tool.
It is used to prioritize proposed activities. Each activity is placed in one of four
categories, as seen in the following illustration:
255
Motivation Techniques
People are the key to quality, but no two people are alike in their ability, motivation
and persistence to perform. Quality professionals can provide the systems, tools, and
methods for quality improvement, but all employees must get on board for a quality
improvement effort to be successful.
Motivation can be defined as an emotion or desire within a person causing that person
to act. Managers need to understand employee motivation and needs to build and
sustain employee enthusiasm. If different or opposing outlooks surface, management
must know how to help employees recognize common goals and work together to
achieve them.
To better understand employee motives, needs and goals, examine a few of the
landmark motivational theories and studies. Each of the studies and theories discussed
in this section presents a slightly different perspective of human needs and how they
collectively influence an employee's level, direction and persistence.
256
The Hawthorne Experiments
The roots of industrial motivational research in America date back to the period of
1924 to 1932. During this time, experiments were conducted at the Western Electric
Company Hawthorne plant in Cicero, a manufacturing division of AT&T.
Management and behavioral scientists collaborated during the experiments to study
the effects of various working conditions on productivity and quality. Environmental
lighting, the number of rest periods, the length of the workday and the time of day
were some of the variables examined.
The studies also included some unusual tactics, such as:
Conducting experiments with small groups of workers in simulated shop-floor
conditions (rather than the entire population).
Discussing changes in advance with study participants.
Encouraging workers (relay assemblers) to work at a comfortable pace.
Results of the Hawthorne experiments found that productivity increased and rejects
decreased as favorable conditions were introduced (e.g., better lighting and shorter
workdays). But interestingly, the quality and productivity gains were sustained even
after the workplace conditions returned to initial levels.
Thus a classic finding of the Hawthorne experiments is that relay assemblers’
productivity increased under good conditions or poor. The studies concluded that
these gains were sustained regardless of the conditions because:
The individual worker’s needs were considered.
Workers were treated with dignity.
The Hawthorne experiments demonstrated the benefits of an improved human
relations atmosphere and management involvement in productivity and quality.
257
Abraham Maslow - Hierarchy of Needs
Abraham Maslow’s hierarchy of needs is one of the most widely cited theories of
human motivation. A pyramid configuration represents human needs, progressing
from the most basic physiological needs to a stage Maslow calls self-actualization.
Needs must be satisfied in order of priority, progressing from Stage One through Stage
Five. Physiological needs must be satisfied first, before the next level becomes
dominant.
As each level of need is satisfied, it loses its motivating power and the next higher
level’s needs take precedence. The highest level, self-actualization, is an exception to
this process. This need is considered insatiable, so it continues to be a motivator.
Maslow believed that managers are responsible for creating a work environment in
which employees can perform at the highest level.
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258
David McClelland - Acquired Needs Theory
259
Communication
260
Questioning Techniques
When you have determined the kind of information desired, the next step is deciding
on the most appropriate questioning format. The questioning format can be either
open- or closed-ended, as described below:
261
Listening Strategies
When you have asked a question, it is imperative that you listen carefully to the
answer. If the speaker gets the impression you’re not listening, it can compromise
your credibility and cause your information source to become uncooperative.
Listening behaviors can be one of two types: passive or active.
Passive listening
Passive listening does not really qualify as listening. Although the listener appears to
be listening, in reality their attention is focused elsewhere.
Unfortunately, with so many distractions at home and work, passive listening seems
more the norm than active listening. As illustrated below, it takes concentration and
discipline to focus on someone else’s communication needs. Here are typical barriers
to active listening:
Presuming: The listener assumes they know what the speaker will say next and
believes it is unnecessary to continue listening.
Distractions: The listener’s environment or inner thoughts prevent them from
concentrating on the speaker’s message.
Rushing: The listener is in a hurry and does not want to take the time to listen to
the speaker.
Interrupting: The listener continually interrupts the speaker and will not let the
speaker continue with their line of thought.
Faking: The listener wants to maintain the outward appearance of listening and
holds eye contact to be polite, but they are not focused on the speaker’s message.
Planning ahead: The listener gets interested in something in the first part of the
message and stops listening to plan a response to that point.
Daydreaming: Weariness or preoccupation with other thoughts keep the listener
from hearing the speaker’s message.
262
Listening Strategies Cont.
Active Listening
Active listening means the listener is concentrating on the speaker’s message and
attempting to understand what the speaker has to say. This proves that the listener is
dedicated to understanding the speaker's needs. It also encourages the speaker to
examine their needs and explain their thoughts. Active listening has the following
outcomes:
Saves time: Rather than trying to collect information through trial and error, the
speaker can ask good questions, listen carefully to the response and get the
necessary information efficiently.
Reduces misunderstandings: Misunderstandings occur because there is a
breakdown somewhere in communication. Active listening enhances
communication and reduces misunderstandings.
Creates a climate of cooperation and trust: The speaker senses the listener's
genuine interest in the situation and trusts the listener to help.
Active listening is a powerful tool when used consistently. Following a few simple
guidelines will help you become a better listener and a more quality-focused
professional:
Strive to understand the speaker before offering input.
Avoid barriers to active listening.
Demonstrate listening with verbal clues and eye contact.
Verify understanding by paraphrasing, clarifying or summarizing.
263
Assessment - Negotiation Techniques
Read the following statements about negotiation techniques. Click True or False for
each item.
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264
Six Sigma Black Belt
Project Management
Management and Planning Tools
Learning Objectives
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Management and Planning Tools
Concept: Learning Objectives
At the end of this Project Management topic, all learners will be able to define, select
and use management planning tools such as:
affinity diagrams.
interrelationship digraphs.
tree diagrams.
prioritization matrices.
matrix diagrams.
process decision program (PDPC) charts.
activity network diagrams (AND).
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Six Sigma Green Belt web-based
Certification Preparation Course.
266
Introduction
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Management and Planning Tools
Concept: Introduction
In the 1970s, a Japanese team developed new tools in response to changes in quality
technology. Known as "the 7M tools", these instruments are used by leading
organizations throughout the world to improve decision making, communication,
planning and implementation.
As with any methodology, a tool's name varies from organization to organization.
Some of these tools are new while others are refinements of predecessors. The 7M
tools are:
Affinity diagrams
Interrelationship digraphs
Tree diagrams
Matrix diagrams
Prioritization matrices
Process decision program (PDPC) charts
Activity network diagrams
While these tools help teams respond effectively to issues, do not expect to use all the
tools in all projects. In addition, although these tools may be used during the planning
stage of a Six Sigma project, it is recommended they be implemented whenever
needed throughout the entire DMAIC process.
Roll over Page Resources, click Flow of Management and Planning Tools to view a
"typical" flow of the 7M tools from The Memory Jogger Plus+® Featuring the Seven
Management and Planning Tools by Michael Brassard.
267
Affinity Diagrams
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Management and Planning Tools
Concept: Affinity Diagrams
Developed by Dr. Kawakita Jiro in the 1960s to discover meaningful groups, the
affinity diagram clarifies data by categorizing a large number of ideas based on their
natural relationships.
Benefits
Is a good tool for organizing information into categories
Provides creative process and display
Links ideas
Adds structure to a complicated topic
Stimulates critical thinking
Helps organize unfamiliar ideas or problems
Helps in the Six Sigma problem definition phase to scope the project objective
The following example of an affinity diagram refers to the process of making coffee.
268
Affinity Diagrams Cont.
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Management and Planning Tools
Concept: Affinity Diagrams Cont.
Procedure
1. State the problem (issue).
2. Brainstorm. Everyone records their ideas on sticky notes or cards.
3. Gather all notes.
4. Move notes into related ideas. Loners may exist.
If a topic fits into two groups, make an extra copy.
Look to see if small sets should belong in a larger group.
Look to see if a larger group needs to be subdivided with cards for each.
5. Sort the brainstormed list. Move ideas from the brainstormed list into affinity sets
and create groups of related ideas.
6. Determine headings for each group and write the header.
Use When
Confronting many disparate facts or ideas. Affinity diagrams are especially useful
for organizing qualitative comments, such as those collected during the “Voice of
the Customer” process
Attempting to grasp a large, complex issue
Refining brainstorm results into coherent outcomes
Seeking group consensus
User Tips
Affinity diagrams are not necessary when the problem is simple.
Do list:1
Write clearly.
Wait until everyone is ready.
Allow plenty of time for initial idea development.
Use markers because regular pens are harder to read.
If possible, post the randomly arranged notes in a public place and allow
grouping to happen over several days.
Avoid list:2
Do not place the notes in any order.
Do not determine categories or headings in advance.
Do not talk during the writing phase and the first sorting phase. (This is hard
for some people!)
Do not have more than eight people working on an affinity diagram.
269
Interrelationship Digraphs
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Management and Planning Tools
Concept: Interrelationship Digraphs
Benefits
Displays a goal divided into different levels.
Maps interactions between ideas and factors.
Encourages team members to think in multiple directions.
Depicts a hierarchy of tasks and subtasks.
Creates an analysis of natural links.
Helps identify root causes.
270
Interrelationship Digraphs Cont.
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Management and Planning Tools
Concept: Interrelationship Digraphs Cont.
Procedure
1. Write a statement or issue to explore.
2. Brainstorm ideas about the issue (write each idea on a card or note).
3. Individually determine a relationship for each idea.
4. Draw arrows showing influences (from the idea to its causes and influences).
5. Analyze the diagram. Count the arrows to and from each idea.
a. Write the total counts at the bottom of each idea.
b. Key ideas are the ones with the most arrows.
c. Note which ideas have primarily outgoing (from) arrows. These are causes.
d. Note which ideas have primarily incoming (to) arrows. These are effects.
e. Be sure to check whether ideas with fewer arrows are also key ideas.
f. Draw bold lines around the key ideas.
Use When
Organizing related ideas.
Attempting to understand links between ideas and cause-and-effect relationships.
For example, a digraph can be useful when trying to identify the area of greatest
impact for improvement.1
Analyzing a complex issue for causes.2
Problem-solving a complex situation.
Linking intertwined causal relationships.
Determining a final solution.
Evaluating the relationship between ideas.
User Tips
Affinity diagrams arrange ideas into groups; interrelationship digraphs attempt to
define influences on each group.
Group titles should be brought from the affinity diagram to the interrelationship
digraph.
Directional arrows should be used to encourage critical thinking.
If in a large group, sticky notes or cards, a large paper surface, marking pens and
tape should be used.
A high number of outgoing arrows indicates a root cause, while a high number of
incoming arrows indicates outcomes or results.
The number of arrows is only an indicator, not an absolute rule.
Interrelationship digraphs can be used to supplement cause-and-effect or fishbone
diagrams.
271
Tree Diagrams
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Management and Planning Tools
Concept: Tree Diagrams
Resembling a trunk with branches, tree diagrams are ordered structures for
organizing information by importance and details. With the larger idea broken down
into smaller components, the idea is easier to understand.
Benefits
Provides a simple, highly effective method.
Promotes step-by-step thinking.
Graphically displays information.
Helps members find information easily.
Displays different levels of details.
Allows members to expand their thinking and see links between concepts.
Reveals the real level of complexity.
272
Tree Diagrams Cont.
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Management and Planning Tools
Concept: Tree Diagrams Cont.
Procedure
The following list is derived from The Quality Toolbox by Nancy R. Tague:
1. Develop a statement of the goal, project, plan or problem being studied.
2. Ask a question leading to the next level of detail.
3. If dealing with a goal, identify the needs and tasks necessary to accomplish the
goal.
4. If dealing with a problem, identify the causes of or reasons for the problem.
5. Brainstorm all possible answers.
6. Check to see if all items are necessary.
7. Make sure that the final list contains everything needed to accomplish the goal.
Use When*
Moving an idea from broad generalities to specific details
Developing an action plan to implement a solution
Analyzing processes in detail
Probing for the root cause of a problem
Evaluating implementation issues
Communicating information
Examining key issues after using an affinity diagram or interrelationship digraph
Serving as a problem-solving aid
Showing a goal and what is needed to accomplish it
User Tips
Before starting the tree, brainstorm.
Orient the tree from left to right.
Do not draw lines until the list of ideas is completed.
Use information from a previously created affinity diagram or fishbone diagram
to help complete the tree.
Use the tree to develop goals, objectives and action plans.
* The above list is derived from The Quality Toolbox by Nancy R. Tague.
273
Prioritization Matrices
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Management and Planning Tools
Concept: Prioritization Matrices
Benefits
Is simple to use.
Forces analyzing.
Displays information in a table format.
Connects multiple ideas and causes.
274
Prioritization Matrices Cont.
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Management and Planning Tools
Concept: Prioritization Matrices Cont.
Procedure
1. Generate the criteria for making the decision.
2. Determine the weight of each criterion.
3. Create an L-shaped matrix (discussed next in the Matrix Diagrams section) and
list the choices by rows.
4. Label the matrix column headings with the criteria and their relative weights.
5. Have each member order the options according to each criterion.
6. Ask each member to multiply their ranking by the criterion weight.
7. For each option, have individuals add the option's score.
8. Have the team leader add up the individual scores into a group score.
Use When
Prioritizing the variables with the greatest significance.
Reaching consensus in small teams.
Comparing a few options to specific standards.
Narrowing a list of options to one choice.
Making decisions based on multiple criteria (best when used for six to eight
criteria).
Selecting one product, approach, supplier, option or problem.
User Tips
Utilize prioritization matrices after reducing the options to a manageable number.
Prioritization matrices can be applied in conjunction with a tree diagram.
The higher the weight, the more important the criterion.
The higher the total score, the more important the criterion.
275
Matrix Diagram
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Management and Planning Tools
Concept: Matrix Diagram
By showing the relationship between two, three or four groups of information, matrix
diagrams can reveal intelligence about the relationship, such as its strength, the roles
played by various individuals or measurements.
Benefits
Is simple to use.
Arranges information in a table format for easy use and display.
Displays multiple connections and causes.
Forces analysis.
The following is an example of an L-shaped matrix. Additional types of matrix
diagrams are shown on the next page.
276
Matrix Diagram Cont.
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Management and Planning Tools
Concept: Matrix Diagram Cont.
The illustration below provides a brief summary of when to use the different matrix
diagrams, as determined by the number of groups and the type of relationships. Click
See Example next to each diagram type to see an illustration and brief description of
each.
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277
Matrix Diagram Cont.
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Management and Planning Tools
Concept: Matrix Diagram Cont.
Procedure
1. Define the purpose of the diagram.
2. Identify what sets of elements need to be included to meet the objective of the
diagram.
3. Assemble the best team to connect all the elements of the matrix.
4. Select the matrix format.
5. Choose and define the relationship symbols.
6. Complete the diagram.
Use When
Exploring possible causes for a problem.
Identifying who needs to be involved in a project.
Prioritizing various problems.
Identifying and analyzing the presence and strength of relationships.
Explaining customer defects or complaints.
Combining two tree diagrams into a single matrix.
Selecting an option to pursue.
Comparing the results of implementing a new process to the customer's stated
needs.
User Tips
An L-shaped matrix is the most commonly used diagram.
Matrix diagrams are good for selecting numerical weighting from provided
options.
Prioritization matrices follow the L-shaped format.
Use matrix diagrams in conjunction with tree diagrams.
278
Process Decision Program Charts
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Management and Planning Tools
Concept: Process Decision Program Charts
The process decision program chart (PDPC) is a diagram display for identifying
risks and countermeasures. You can use the PDPC to anticipate what might go wrong
and to develop countermeasures to offset those problems. The PDPC is therefore
useful in steering events toward your desired goals.
Benefits
Helps quantify alternatives.
Clarifies implications of alternatives.
279
Process Decision Program Charts Cont.
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Management and Planning Tools
Concept: Process Decision Program Charts Cont.
Procedure
The following list is derived from The Quality Toolbox by Nancy R. Tague:
1. Determine the activity flow for the plan.
2. Construct a tree diagram by placing prerequisite activities in a time sequence:
Objective (first level)
Main activities (second level)
3. For each task, brainstorm what could go wrong (third level).
4. Review all potential problems and eliminate any that are improbable or those
with an insignificant consequence (fourth level).
5. For each remaining potential problem, brainstorm possible countermeasures for
either preventing the problem or applying a remedy after its occurrence (fifth
level, as clouds or jagged lines).
6. Discuss to decide the practicality of each countermeasure:
Criteria: cost, time required, ease of implementation, effectiveness
Mark impractical countermeasures with an X
Mark practical countermeasures with an O
Use When*
Implementing a complex plan or any new plan.
Exploring the possible contingencies.
A high price for failure exists.
Implementing a plan with a time constraint.
User Tips
Select team members close to the process or product.
Use sticky notes on a large surface when mapping the flow of activities.
Use a flip chart when brainstorming potential problems and countermeasures,
then create a final PDPC.
* The above list is derived from The Quality Toolbox by Nancy R. Tague.
280
Activity Network Diagram
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Management and Planning Tools
Concept: Activity Network Diagram
As introduced in the Planning Tools section of this lesson, activity network diagrams
show the required order of tasks in a project or process, their interconnectivity, the
best schedule for the entire project and any potential scheduling and resource
problems with their solutions.
Benefits
Displays:
Total amount of time needed to complete the project
Task sequence
Concurrent tasks
Critical tasks to monitor
Task dependencies
Aids in determining the critical path method (CPM)
In the example above, the shaded boxes with dotted lines represent tasks that may not
be required depending on the outcome of other tasks but still need to be planned. For
example, based on the results of the software testing, modifications of software may or
may not be required.
281
Activity Network Diagram Cont.
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Management and Planning Tools
Concept: Activity Network Diagram Cont.
Procedure
The following list is derived from The Quality Toolbox by Nancy R. Tague:
1. List all the necessary tasks in the project or process.
2. Determine the first task and place it on the left side.
3. Determine the correct sequence of the tasks:
Which tasks must happen before this one can begin?
Which tasks can be done at the same time as this one? (Place these cards
vertically above or below the first job card.)
Which tasks should happen immediately after this one? (Place the card to
the right of the first card.)
Note: It can be useful to create a table with four columns: prior task(s),
this task, simultaneous task(s), and following tasks.
4. Identify the next task and place the card to the right of the first card.
5. Determine the tasks that can be done at the same time as this task and place the
cards vertically above or below.
6. Repeat this procedure until all the cards are in sequence or parallel.
7. Diagram the network of tasks by arranging the cards in sequence on a large piece
of paper.
Time should flow from left to right and concurrent tasks should align
vertically.
Leave space between the cards.
8. Between each task, draw circles for "events." An event marks the beginning or
end of a task. Thus, events are the nodes that separate tasks.
Use When*
Scheduling, assigning and monitoring tasks within a complex project or process.
A project schedule is critical, with serious consequences for completing the
project late or significant advantages of completing the project early.
You know the steps of the project or process, their sequence and how long each
step takes.
User Tips
Use sticky notes or cards on a large surface.
Draw extra events to separate tasks that stop and start with the same event.
* The above list is derived from The Quality Toolbox by Nancy R. Tague.
282
Planning Tools Pyramid Game
Six Sigma Black Belt | Project Management | Management and Planning Tools
Concept: Planning Tools Pyramid Game
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283
Lesson Summary
Project management is a crucial part of the DMAIC process. Many tools, techniques
and concepts were introduced in this lesson. Although project planning is primarily the
focus at the beginning of the DMAIC process, the elements of the project management
discipline can be practiced to some extent in each of the phases to keep the project
moving. Proper planning and management is the foundation that will support the
project through to completion.
Project charter
The project charter is a written commitment approved by management, stating the
scope of authority for an improvement project. It is recognized by all parties involved
in the project. Once published, it provides powerful communication about the project
to the entire team. At the same time, a charter is a “living” document, constantly being
reviewed and updated to reflect additional relevant data as it becomes known.
Team leadership
Effective team leadership involves initiating teams and clearly defining purpose,
goals, ground rules, roles and responsibilities. Selecting the right people for the team
is also very important; make sure the team is composed of the right combination of
process expertise, commitment and motivation for improvement.
Team dynamics and performance
It is essential to understand team dynamics and performance. There are many
techniques for building and maintaining a strong, productive team. Being able to
facilitate valuable discussion is crucial. Providing the team with the tools to make
decisions is also important.
Change agent
A change agent is an individual from inside or outside an organization who facilitates
change within the organization. Change agents must be proactive by anticipating
roadblocks. They must prepare for such roadblocks by setting up proper
communication plans and helping the organization see why change is necessary.
Change agents must also be skilled in negotiation, conflict resolution and motivation
techniques to keep the team on track.
Management and planning tools
Selecting the appropriate management and planning tools during the planning process
and using them throughout the DMAIC process is also very important to ensure the
success of the Six Sigma project. Roll over Page Resources to view a comprehensive
matrix of the planning and estimation tools discussed in this lesson.
Again, keep in mind that project management is not only vital in the beginning of a
project but throughout the project life cycle as well.
284
Planning and Estimation Tools Matrix
Planning Tools
Tool Advantages Disadvantages
Gantt Simple to understand Provide only vague
Easy to modify descriptions of how projects
The least complex means of function or react as a system
Do not show
portraying progress (or lack
of it) interdependencies of project
Easily expanded to identify activities; therefore, they do
specific elements that are not represent a network of
either behind or ahead of activities
Cannot show the results of
schedule
either an early or a late start
in project activities;
therefore the project team
has no idea what the impact
of slippage in one element of
the project has on another or
how that slippage affects the
project completion date
Do not show any uncertainty
involved in the performance
of project activities; that is,
what is the longest, shortest,
or average time required to
complete the activity
285
Planning and Estimation Tools Matrix
286
Lesson Bibliography
287
Six Sigma Black Belt
Define
Lesson Introduction
289
Lesson Overview
The tools and objectives of the Define phase are illustrated below.
290
Six Sigma Black Belt
Define
Project Scope
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Define topic, all learners will be able to determine project
definition/scope using Pareto charts and top-level (macro) process maps.
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Six Sigma Green Belt web-based
Certification Preparation Course.
292
Introduction
As introduced in the Project Management lesson, the project scope defines the specific
aspects of the problem that will be addressed. Project scope is another component of
the project charter. To develop the project scope, various tools are used. This lesson
will concentrate on two of these tools: Pareto charts and process mapping. A third tool,
"in scope/out of scope" will also be demonstrated.
293
Pareto Charts
Concept
The Pareto principle states that 80% of the problems come from 20% of the causes
(the 80/20 rule). The Pareto chart visually depicts the most significant of these
situations:
80% of interruptions come from the same 20% of the people.
80% of staff problems come from 20% of the staff.
80% of a nurse's time is spent with 20% of the patients.
Features
Bar graphs display frequency or cost with bars arranged from high (longest) on
the left to low (shortest) on the right.
Line graphs display the cumulative percentage of individual issues from the
highest to the lowest.
Benefits
Focuses on the highest impact causes
Displays relative significance
Breaks the problem into identifiable components
294
Pareto Charts Cont.
Procedure
1. Decide the categories, measurements and time period involved.
Note: Pareto categories must be unambiguous or mutually exclusive. An item can
only fit into one category or else the Pareto becomes invalid.
2. Collect the data.
3. Order the data (high to low).
4. Label the left vertical axis for the frequency or cost.
5. Plot and label the bars (tallest on the left, shortest on the right).
6. Label the right vertical axis as percentage.
7. Calculate the percentage for each category (the category total divided by the total
for all categories, multiplied by 100).
8. Calculate the cumulative percentage. Start with the highest, then add the second
bar's percentage (record), then the third (record), and so on.
9. Plot the first point (highest percentage).
10. Plot the appropriate cumulative percentage above each of the corresponding bars.
11. Continue the process for all bars.
12. Connect the dots to form a line graph.
13. Add a title, legend, and date.
Use When
Analyzing the causes or frequency of problems in a process.
Focusing on the most significant critical issue(s).
Prioritizing problems.
Analyzing the before and after impact of changes (by comparing before and after
Pareto charts).
Communicating data to others.
295
Pareto Charts Cont.
User Tips
Look for the point where the line's slope begins to flatten.
Factors under the steepest curve are the most important.
If the change in the slope is not clear, identify the factors making up at least 60%
of the problem.
If the bars are all similar sizes or when more than half of the categories are
needed to reach the necessary 60%, try breaking the categories down differently.
As previously covered, Pareto charts help identify the most critical issues to study. By
relying on the Pareto principle's guideline of 80% of the problems coming from 20%
of the causes, you will be able to differentiates the vital few from the trivial many.
Often it is more cost effective to take the biggest problem (largest Pareto bar) as a top
priority project and dissect it into smaller projects than it is to generate several projects
out of the lesser prioritized problems (smaller Pareto bars).
296
Nested Pareto Charts
Once the initial Pareto chart has been completed, it is sometimes useful to create a
secondary or nested Pareto chart to further analyze the data that make up the top
categories.
As demonstrated by the chart above, the biggest complaints stem from quality
certificate errors. To analyze this further and narrow the project's scope, a nested (or
secondary) Pareto chart could be created. In this case, the specific types of quality
certificate errors would be gathered and charted as shown in the graphic below.
297
Nested Pareto Charts
298
Weighted Pareto Charts
According to The Quality Toolbox, Second Edition by Nancy R. Tague, "In a weighted
Pareto chart, each category is assigned a weight, which lengthens or shortens the bars.
This reflects the relative importance or cost of each category."
Tague states that weighted Pareto charts are used when:
"
A Pareto analysis is appropriate
The categories do not result in equal cost or pain to the organization
There are more opportunities for one category to occur than another
"
Before creating a weighted Pareto chart, each category must be given a weight of
importance. Using the example from the previous page, it was determined that legal
issues are of greatest concern, therefore recall notification errors should be weighted
the highest. This category, along with the others, was given the appropriate weight
then multiplied by the number of occurrences to determine the final weighted value.
Once the weighted value have been calculated, use the procedures for creating a
Pareto chart as shown in the graphic below:
Roll over Page Resources for an opportunity to practice creating Pareto charts.
299
Pareto Chart Practice
Six Sigma Black Belt | Define | Project Scope | Weighted Pareto Charts
Example: Pareto Chart Practice
Materials Needed
graph paper
calculator
Description
RF Toys produces a toy dart gun. Concerned about the number of products returned to
various stores, the quality improvement specialist gathers the following data about
customer returns:
Task
Draw a Pareto chart displaying this data. When completed, roll over Page Resources
at the bottom of the screen and click Pareto Answer to see if you are correct.
300
Pareto Answer
Six Sigma Black Belt | Define | Project Scope | Weighted Pareto Charts
Example: Pareto Answer
301
Top-Level Process Maps
As you will learn in the Measure lesson, process maps display the separate steps of
any series of activities that produce an outcome. Steps are in sequential order and
include inputs and outputs, required decisions, people involved, time at each step and
other measurements. Detailed process maps are useful when analyzing potential
causes of problems and preparing action plans to improve existing processes or
develop new processes.
In contrast, the top-level process map (sometimes referred to as "the 30,000-foot
overview") shows only the major steps of the process. The top-level process map is
useful in scoping process improvement projects and establishing boundaries. Top-level
process maps are also referred to as a high-level flow chart or macro process map.
Benefits
Visually represents how the process works
Improves process understanding
Identifies process boundaries
Allows all team members to view the process in the same light
302
Top-Level Process Maps Cont.
Procedure
1. Define (identify) the process.
2. List 6 to 8 major activities involved in the process.
3. Arrange activities in the proper sequence.
4. Draw arrows to show the flow.
Use When
Communicating or trying to understand the major steps in a process (the
"big-picture").
Preparing to draw a more detailed flowchart.
User Tips
If there are more than 8 steps, there is the danger of including too much detail for
a broad overview.
Decisions, delays and recycle loops are details usually not shown on a top-level
process map.
303
SIPOC
Often, project teams will complete a SIPOC (Suppliers, Inputs, Process, Outputs and
Customers) diagram in conjunction with a top-level process map. A SIPOC diagram
identifies the process activities, key inputs, outputs, customers and stakeholders. As
mentioned earlier, when mapping the process, only the 6 to 8 major steps should be
shown at this stage.
Here is an example of a SIPOC diagram:
304
In Scope - Out of Scope Tool
Another tool that can be used to determine project scope is the in scope/out of scope
tool. Based on the outcome of other tools used, team members can brainstorm possible
ways to help narrow the scope.
Procedure
1. Have team members brainstorm specific items to include or not include in the
overall project scope.
2. Have team members write the items on sticky notes.
3. Team members discuss the items and determine whether each is in or out of
scope.
4. Using a template, team members place sticky notes in appropriate categories.
5. Add the resulting in scope items to the project charter.
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Six Sigma Black Belt
Define
Metrics
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Define topic, all learners will be able to establish primary and
consequential metrics (e.g., quality, cycle time, cost).
307
Primary and Consequential Metrics
Once the top-level process map or SIPOC has been completed, the next step is to
determine the outputs or elements of the processes that are most important to the
customer and which would have the biggest impact if improved. At this stage, primary
and consequential metrics should be defined and later calculated within the Measure
phase.
Primary metrics, also called "process metrics," are the metrics Six Sigma
practitioners can most influence. Primary metrics are:
almost always the direct output characteristic of a process.
a measure of a process outcome, but not a financial goal or business objective.
frequently focused on quality, cycle time and cost.
derived from the project stakeholders, including internal customers, external
customers and suppliers.
Consequential metrics, also called "secondary metrics," can be either business or
process metrics, and are derived from or are a result of the primary metric.
In any given project, there may be one primary metric or multiple consequential
metrics for improving one process. Where there is one primary metric, secondary or
consequential metrics are needed to assure that improving the primary metric does not
degrade other critical metrics (e.g., reducing a primary metric of cost but at the
consequence of degrading secondary metrics of quality or cycle time).
308
Examples
Using the SIPOC diagram from earlier in the lesson, our primary metrics might
include:
accuracy of the order (quality).
timeliness of order processing (cycle time).
accuracy and timeliness of inventory database (quality and cycle time).
cost of reworking the order (cost).
cost of IT having to update database (cost).
cost of customer canceling order (cost).
Consequential metrics might include:
return on sales as represented by a change in the volume of customer orders.
overall number and level of customer complaints.
As metrics are defined, always look back to the Voice of the Customer (VOC)
determinations (discussed in the Business Process Management lesson) to ensure you
are selecting measurements that will have an impact on quality and are meaningful to
the customer.
309
Six Sigma Black Belt
Define
Problem Statement
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Define topic, all learners will be able to develop a problem
statement, including baseline and improvement goals.
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Six Sigma Green Belt web-based
Certification Preparation Course.
311
Problem Statement
A problem statement details the issue the project team wants to improve. The
problem statement should be specific and based on data that describes the issue's
current state. The problem statement should not include the proposed solution.
Purpose
Problem statements focus the team on a process deficiency, thus controlling the
scope of the project.
Problem statements also communicates the significance of the process deficiency
to others.
312
Problem Statement Practice
For each of the problem statements below, determine whether they are poorly-written
or well-written. Please select "good" for well-written statements, and "bad" for
poorly-written statements.
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313
Goal Setting
As first introduced in the Project Management lesson, the Goal statement should
specifically outline what you hope to achieve at the end of the project. Setting goals is
an important part of the Define stage that must be completed before moving on to the
Measure phase.
Goals should:
Be carefully thought out and expressed.
Specify how completing the project will lead to improvements over the status
quo. You should be able to clearly describe the outcomes, deliverables and
benefits to stakeholders and customers.
Provide the criteria you need to evaluate the success of the project in terms of
time, costs, and resources.
Be reviewed by the core team, which must reach consensus before moving to the
next phase of the project.
The acronym frequently used to assess whether a project's goals are "good" is
SMART: Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant, Time-Bound. These concepts
are illustrated below:
314
Goal Setting Practice
Use the SMART criteria to identify which element(s), if any, are missing from the
following goal statements. When complete, roll over Page Resources, and click
SMART Answers to view the missing SMART elements.
1. Reduce credit card resolution time by 75% in 2 weeks.
2. Improve the meeting room scheduling process.
3. Reduce failed installations by 30%.
4. Improve profitability.
5. Reduce late and early appliance deliveries within 6 months of the project kick off
date.
6. Decrease costs by end of year.
315
SMART Answers
Six Sigma Black Belt | Define | Problem Statement | Goal Setting Practice
Example: SMART Answers
316
Define Review
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317
Lesson Summary
318
Lesson Bibliography
American Society for Quality. Six Sigma Green Belt Certification Preparation Course,
Version 1 (web-based course). Milwaukee, WI, 2006.
Tague, Nancy R. The Quality Toolbox, 2nd ed. Milwaukee, WI: ASQ Quality Press,
2005.
319
Six Sigma Black Belt
Measure
Lesson Introduction
According to the ASQ Glossary, measure is the criteria, metric or means to which a
comparison is made with output. Measure is the phase that quantifies the levels of
quality desired and currently produced within the selected process. The Measure phase
is typically characterized by the development of a detailed process map that clearly
defines the interrelated work activities subject to the improvement effort. These work
activities are characterized by a set of specific inputs and value-added tasks that
comprise a procedure. To better understand this concept, the ASQ Body of Knowledge
provides the following topics:
Process analysis and documentation
Develop and review process maps, written procedures, work instructions and
flowcharts.
Identify process input variables and process output variables, and document their
relationships through cause and effect diagrams and relational matrices.
Probability and statistics
Distinguish between enumerative (descriptive) and analytical (inferential)
studies, and distinguish between a population parameter and a sample statistic.
Define the central limit theorem and understand its significance in the application
of inferential statistics for confidence intervals and control charts.
Describe and apply concepts such as independence, mutually exclusive,
multiplication rules, complementary probability and joint occurrence of events.
Collecting and summarizing data
Identify, define, classify and compare continuous (variables) and discrete
(attributes) data and recognize.opportunities to convert attributes data to variables
measures.
Define and apply nominal, ordinal, interval and ratio measurement scales.
Define and apply methods for collecting data such as check sheets, coding data
and automatic gauging.
Define and apply techniques for assuring data accuracy and integrity such as
random sampling, stratified sampling and sample homogeneity.
Define, compute and interpret measures of dispersion and central tendency, and
construct and interpret frequency distributions and cumulative frequency
distributions.
Depict relationships by constructing, applying and interpreting diagrams and
charts such as stem-and-leaf plots, box-and-whisker plots, run charts and scatter
diagrams. Depict distributions by constructing, applying and interpreting
diagrams such as histograms, normal probability plots and Weibull plots.
Properties and applications of probability distributions
Describe and apply the following distributions commonly used by Black Belts:
binomial, Poisson, normal, chi-square, Student's t and F distributions.
Recognize when and how to use the following, less frequently used distributions:
hypergeometric, bivariate, exponential, lognormal and Weibull.
Measurement systems
Describe and review measurement methods such as attribute screens, gauge
blocks, calipers, micrometers, optical comparators, tensile strength and titration.
321
Lesson Introduction
322
Lesson Overview
The tools and objectives of the Measure phase are illustrated below.
323
Six Sigma Black Belt
Measure
Process Analysis and Documentation
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Measure topic, all learners will be able to:
develop and review:
process maps.
written procedures.
work instructions.
flowcharts.
identify process input variables and process output variables.
document input and output relationships through cause-and-effect diagrams and
relational matrices.
325
Introduction to Documentation
One of the first steps in analyzing a process is to determine the current process. Start
by reviewing all supporting documentation and examining the various levels of
documentation available as part of process analysis.
The need for a quality documentation system spans a variety of applications such as
but not limited to:
Assurance of quality in products shipped to customers
Fulfillment of contractual and regulatory requirements
Adequate defense in liability cases
Benchmark data
Data to ensure that the organization is properly responsive to needed
improvements
Product performance data
Documentation of quality costs
Organizations need to approach the mass of quality data from a systems perspective. A
typical hierarchy of quality system documentation is shown below.
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326
Process Analysis Using Documentation
The project team should review documentation including any flowcharts, specs,
standards and guidelines that describe the process under consideration. Although
sometimes lacking specific details, flowcharts describe the process at a general level.
These flowcharts may conceptualize the entire operation and the individual steps
within the operation.
On the other hand, written procedures and task instructions provide step-by-step
details helpful in analyzing the process. Examining written documentation helps
clarify the current condition and may provide clues to possible quality issues.
To start process analysis using written documentation:
1. Obtain a copy of the written procedures, task instructions or flowcharts.
2. Study the written procedures.
3. Construct a basic process map to display the actions.
4. Use this information as you continue process analysis.
327
Process Map
328
Process Maps and Flowcharts
Symbols are used to define certain types of steps in a flowchart: rectangles for most
steps and diamonds for decisions. Roll over the Page Resources link at the bottom of
the page for a list of flowchart symbols.
A sample process flowchart is shown below. Each symbol on the map can have
additional information added to it such as inputs and outputs. To see an example of the
inputs and outputs of a step in the process flowchart, roll over the step indicated in the
image below.
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329
Flowchart Symbols
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Process Analysis and Documentation | Process Maps and Flowcharts
Example: Flowchart Symbols
330
Benefits of a Process Map
331
Creating Process Maps
Procedure
Materials needed: yellow sticky notes, notecards or flipchart paper; marking pens
1. Define (identify) the process.
2. Brainstorm the activities involved in the process.
3. Arrange the activities in proper sequence.
4. Determine inputs and outputs.
5. Identify time lags and non-value-added steps.
6. Once the sequence is agreed upon, draw arrows to show the flow.
Use When
Developing an understanding of the steps in a process.
Studying a process for improvement.
Communicating how the process works.
Documenting a process.
User Tips
Focus on identifying the process before worrying about correctly drawing the
process map.
Focus on those areas that appear complex with an excessive number of potential
decision points or delays.
Look for duplication, redundancy, complexity or too many “handoffs” in the
process.
Ask the following types of questions:
Why are we performing the task in this manner?
Does the current process deviate from the designed process? Why?
What are the value-added activities?
What are the non-value-added activities?
How much time, money or work hours are required for each task? These
may be the outputs (Ys) of the steps in the process.
332
Inputs and Outputs
Inputs (Xs) are causes (independent variables) that contribute to specific outputs (Ys)
or effects (dependent variables). Not only are inputs and outputs important to
sequential processes in an operation, they are also important to consider from a
supplier-to-customer perspective.
Do I know the external customer requirements for this process?
Do I know the internal customer requirements if they, in fact, exist?
If the process map is expanded beyond inputs-process-outputs, then the supplier and
customer perspectives can be added forming the acronym SIPOC. SIPOC (Suppliers,
Inputs, Process, Outputs, Customers) assists in capturing key links between suppliers,
inputs, the process, outputs and customers, as discussed in the Define lesson of this
course. Gathering measurable data from all parts of the chain allows an organization to
provide feedback for process improvement.
Roll over Page Resources and click SIPOC Diagram to view an example.
333
SIPOC Diagram
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Process Analysis and Documentation | Inputs and Outputs
Example: SIPOC Diagram
Purpose
SIPOC (suppliers, inputs, process, outputs, customers) is a tool for identifying all
elements involved in a process improvement project.
Procedure
1. Identify the steps.
2. Identify the outputs of the process.
3. Identify the customers who will receive the outputs of the process.
4. Identify the inputs needed by the process.
5. Identify the supplies of the required inputs.
334
Working with Inputs and Outputs
335
Cause-and-Effect Diagram
Benefits
Sorts the ideas into useful categories.
Breaks down ideas into smaller chunks.
Shows the interaction between various causes.
Encourages group participation.
Helps identify areas to collect data for further study.
336
Using Cause-and-Effect Diagrams
Choosing Categories
Categories will differ based on the project and the type of process or process step
under consideration. The categories shown below are starting points to initiate the
thinking process. Each team will develop its own categories based on the needs of the
project.
"6 Ms" – used commonly in manufacturing:
Methods (process, documentation, and procedures)
Machines (equipment)
Manpower (people or management)
Materials
Measurement
Mother Nature (environment)
"The 5 Ps + E" – used commonly in service industries:
Place
Process
Procedure
People
Policies
Environment
"The Right Stuff"
tools
materials
instructions
supervision
feedback
Procedure
1. Develop a problem statement by identifying the effect or symptom.
2. Write the categories of causes as branches from the main arrow.
3. Identify the potential causes (inputs) using brainstorming techniques.
4. Continue to ask "Why?" for each cause and record each as a sub-cause that
branches off.
5. When the group runs out of ideas, focus attention on places on the chart where
ideas are fewer.
6. Return to each cause to prioritize the list.
7. After the completion of the diagram, begin to collect data to support the
hypothesized causes.
Use When
Process mapping, to identify additional inputs (or causes).
Organizing thoughts after a brainstorming session.
Identifying the root cause.
337
Using Cause-and-Effect Diagrams
User Tips
Before starting, gain consensus on the problem statement/effect.
Pursue each cause to its root cause.
Be specific.
The diagram organizes thoughts, not solutions.
The diagram does not rank items according to importance, however, the data
collection should start with the top three to five most likely root causes.
When process mapping, the head of the "fish" is the name of the process (if
looking at high level inputs) or of a step within the process (if looking at low
level inputs).
338
Relational Matrices
A relational matrix is a tool used to assess the effect of each input (X) against its
output (Y) in a process.
See also: xy matrix, process to product, cause/effect matrix, prioritization matrix
Benefits
The process helps team members to identify and agree upon outputs critical to the
product and/or customer.
Levels of importance are assigned to each output variable (using a numerical
rating).
The effect of each input (X) on each output (Y) is determined and assigned a
numerical value.
The relationship between inputs and outputs [Y=f(x)] is determined.
For process maps, the relative importance of inputs is determined.
339
Creating Relational Matrices
Procedure
1. Review the process map. The group should consider involving the customer
when defining and rating the Ys.
2. List the output variables (Ys) along the horizontal axis.
3. Rate each output in terms of its overall importance. In this example, a scale of 1
(low importance) to 5 (high importance) is used. Other scales may also be used.
4. Identify potential inputs (Xs) that can impact the various outputs (Ys). List them
on the vertical axis. The Xs should come directly from the process map.
5. Rate the effect of each X on each Y. In the example below, a scale of 0 (no
relationship), 1 (weak relationship), 3 (moderate relationship) or 9 (strong
relationship) is used. The rating is based on how much effect that particular input
has on the quality of its corresponding output. Other scales may also be used.
6. The customer importance rating (Y) serves as a weighted response that is
multiplied by the association rating (X) for each relationship.
7. The weighted ratings are then added together to comprise a weighted total, the
importance score. This score is ranked from highest score to lowest, focusing on
the top three to five in the project. Use the results to analyze and align future
team activities, prioritizing where the team can begin its focus.
340
Six Sigma Black Belt
Measure
Probability and Statistics
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Measure topic, all learners will be able to:
distinguish between enumerative (descriptive) and analytical (inferential) studies,
and between a population parameter and a sample statistic.
define the central limit theorem and understand its significance in the application
of inferential statistics for confidence intervals and control charts.
describe and apply concepts such as independence, mutually exclusive,
multiplication rules, complementary probability and joint occurrence of events.
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Six Sigma Green Belt web-based
Certification Preparation Course and the ASQ Foundations in Quality Learning
Series: Certified Quality Engineer.
342
Introduction to Enumerative and Analytical Studies
343
Enumerative (Descriptive) Studies
344
Analytic (Inferential) Studies
345
Population Parameters and Sample Statistics
346
Central Limit Theorem
According to Pyzdek,
"
The central limit theorem can be stated as follows:
Irrespective of the shape of the distribution of the population or universe, the
distribution of average values of samples drawn from that universe will tend toward a
norm distribution as the sample size grows without bound.
"
The central limit theorem is the theoretical foundation for many statistical
procedures. The theorem states that a plot of the sampled mean values from a
population tends to be normally distributed.
347
Demonstrating Central Limit Theorem
The graphs below demonstrate the central limit theorem using dice-rolling
experiments. An "experiment" consists of rolling a certain number of dice and
graphing the results. This experiment is performed repeatedly, keeping track of the
number of times each outcome is observed. These outcomes are plotted in the form of
a histogram.
According to the central limit theorem, if the number of dice rolled is not too small,
the histogram's shape should resemble that of the "bell-shaped curve" when the
experiment is repeated many times.
348
Basic Probability Concepts
As mentioned earlier in this section, probability is the chance that something will
occur, and it is expressed as a decimal fraction or a percentage. Click each of the key
terms below to learn more.
Probability
The chance that something will occur is probability. It is expressed as a decimal
fraction or a percentage.
The probability of drawing an ace from a deck of 52 cards is:
4 (aces in the deck) / 52 = .0769
Probability then can be the number of successes divided by the total number of
possible occurrences.
Sample Space
The sample space is the set of possible outcomes of an experiment or the set of
conditions. The sample space is often denoted by the capital letter S. Sample space
outcomes are denoted using lower-case letters (a, b, c . . .) or the actual values if given.
Example: Using this notation, we can show an example of the events in a sample
space. An experiment run at random can result in one of the outcomes a, b, c, d, or e.
The sample space for this experiment is S = {a, b, c, d, e}.
Event
An event is a subset of a sample space. It is denoted by a capital letter such as A, B, C,
etc. Events have outcomes, which are denoted by lower-case letters (a, b, c . . .) or the
actual values if given.
Example: Let’s continue with the above example, in which the experiment had a
sample space of S = {a, b, c, d, e}. Let A be the event in which either outcome c, d, or
e occurs. This event is given as A = {c, d, e}. Let B be the event in which either a or c
occurs. This event is given as B = {a, c}. Let C be the event in which either b, d, or e
occurs. This event is given as C = {b, d, e}.
Union
The union of two events is that event consisting of all outcomes contained in either of
the two events. The union is denoted by the symbol υ placed between the letters
indicating the two events.
Example. In our previous example, A = {c, d, e} and B = {a, c}. The event A union B
is denoted as A υ B = {a, c, d, e}. (Note that duplicated outcomes are written only
once.)
349
Basic Probability Concepts
Intersection
The intersection of two events is that event consisting of all outcomes that the two
events have in common. The intersection is denoted by the symbol ∩ placed between
the letters indicating the two events.
Example: If A = {c, d, e} and C = {b, d, e}, the event A intersect C is denoted as A ∩
C = {d, e}.
The intersection of two events can also be referred to as the joint occurrence of
events.
Complement
The complement of an event is the set of outcomes in the sample space that are not in
the event itself. The complement is shown by the symbol ( ′ ) placed after the letter
indicating the event.
Example: If S = {a, b, c, d, e} and A = {c, d, e}, the complement of A is A′ = {a, b}.
Mutually Exclusive
Mutually exclusive events have no outcomes in common. It should be noted that the
intersection of an event and its complement contains no outcomes—it is the empty set,
Ø . These events are mutually exclusive.
Example: If B = {a, c} and C = {b, d, e}, the event B intersect C is given by B ∩ C =
Ø , and B and C are mutually exclusive.
350
Probability Examples
Let A be the event in which the sample is from Supplier 1. Let B denote the event in
which the sample conforms to specifications.
The number of samples in event A is 28 + 2 = 30, as shown below. There are 30 total
samples from Supplier 1 (regardless of whether they conform or not).
Semiconductor Sample Results, Event A
Conforms
Yes No
Supplier 1 28 2
Supplier 2 17 3
The number of samples in event B is 28 + 17 = 45, as shown below. There are 45 total
samples that conform to specifications (regardless of supplier).
Semiconductor Sample Results, Event B
Conforms
Yes No
Supplier 1 28 2
Supplier 2 17 3
The number of samples in event A′ is 17 + 3 = 20, as shown below. There are 20 total
samples that do not come from Supplier 1. You can interpret A′ as the event that a
sample comes from Supplier 2.
Semiconductor Sample Results, Event A′
Conforms
Yes No
Supplier 1 28 2
Supplier 2 17 3
351
Probability Examples
The number of samples in the event A′ ∩ B is 17, as shown below. There are 17 total
samples that come from Supplier 2 (A′) and conform to specifications (B). You can
interpret A′ ∩ B as the event that a sample comes from Supplier 2 and conforms to
specifications.
Semiconductor Sample Results, Event A′ ∩ B
Conforms
Yes No
Supplier 1 28 2
Supplier 2 17 3
352
Equally Likely Outcomes
When a sample space consists of N possible outcomes, all equally likely to occur, then
the probability of each outcome is 1/N.
Example
Consider the sample space representing all the possible outcomes of rolling a fair die
(i.e., all outcomes are equally likely):
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Since there are six possible outcomes, all equally likely, each outcome has a
probability of 1/6 of occurring.
Let A be the event of getting a 3, 4, or 6 on one roll of the die:
A = {3, 4, 6}
The probability of event A occurring (that is, of getting a 3, 4, or 6) is:
353
Probabilities for Independent Events
Events are independent if the occurrence of one event does not depend on the
occurrence or lack of occurrence of another (or preceding) event.
If two events, A and B, are independent of one another, then the probability of both
event A and event B occurring is:
P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B)
For more than two independent events, the independence rule can be extended:
P(A∩B∩C∩. . .) = P(A)P(B)P(C) . . .
This rule can also be referred to as the multiplication rule.
Example
Assume that the probability that a lab specimen contains high levels of contamination
is 0.15. Three samples are checked and are independent. The probability that all three
specimens contain high levels of contamination is:
P(A∩B∩C∩. . .) = P(A)P(B)P(C) . . .
= P(all contaminated) = P(1st cont.∩2nd cont.∩3rd
cont.)
= P(1st cont.)P(2nd cont.)P(3rd cont.)
= (0.15)(0.15)(0.15)
= 0.003375
354
Probabilities for Mutually Exclusive Events
Mutually exclusive events do not occur at the same time or in the same sample space
and do not have any outcomes in common. Given two mutually exclusive events, A
and B, the event A∩B = Ø, and the probability of events A and B occurring is zero,
that is:
P(A∩B) = 0
Addition Rule
For events A and B, the probabilities of either or both of the events occurring is:
P(AυB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B)
Example
Let P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.4, and P(A∩B) = 0.5. Then:
P(A′) = 1 - P(A) = 1 - 0.2 = 0.8
P(AυB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B) = 0.2 + 0.4 - 0.5 = 0.1
Events A and B are not independent. If events A and B were independent, then
P(A∩B) = P(A)P(B), and this is not the case:
0.5 ≠ (0.2)(0.4)
If the events are mutually exclusive, the term P(A∩B) drops out of the addition rule,
because A and B cannot occur at the same time. The addition rule becomes:
P(A∩B) = P(A) + P(B)
If more than two events are mutually exclusive, then the addition rule can be
extended:
P(AυBυCυ. . .) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) + . . .
355
Conditional Probability
Example
Let’s return to our example in which samples of semiconductors from two suppliers
are classified for conformance to specifications. The results from 50 samples are
summarized in the table below. Let A denote the event in which the sample does not
conform to specifications, and let B be the event in which the sample is from Supplier
1.
The probability that the sample does not conform to specifications given that the
sample came from Supplier 1 is given by P(A|B). A∩B is the event in which the
sample does not conform to specifications and comes from Supplier 1. The number of
samples for this event is 2. Therefore, the probability of this event, P(A∩B), is 2/50.
(Remember that there are a total of 50 samples.)
B is the event in which the sample comes from Supplier 1. The number of samples for
this event is 30. Therefore, P(B) = 30/50.
Finally, the probability of interest can be found as:
This probability could also have been found directly from the table above. The total
number of samples from Supplier 1 was 28 + 2 = 30, and the number that are
nonconforming is 2. Therefore, the probability is 2/30 or 1/15.
356
Probability Problems
Roll over Page Resources for additional problems and their subsequent answers.
357
Probability Problems
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Probability and Statistics | Probability Problems
Example: Probability Problems
Probability Problems
1. What is the probability of drawing three aces in a row from a deck of cards if the
cards are replaced and reshuffled after each draw?
2. Given one standard deck of 52 playing cards. What is the probability of drawing
a spade?
3. Given 2 people, what is the probability of Person 1 drawing a spade (without
replacing and reshuffling) and Person 2 drawing a spade from the same deck?
To check your answers, roll over Page Resources and click Probability Answers.
358
Probability Answers
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Probability and Statistics | Probability Problems
Example: Probability Answers
Probability Answers
1. P(3 aces replacement) 4/52 x 4/52 x 4/52 = .0004552 = .05%
2. Given one standard deck of 52 playing cards, the probability for Person 1
drawing a spade is 13 of 52 = 0.25 = 25%.
3. The probability of Person 1 drawing a spade is 13/52 or .25 and the probability of
Person 2 then drawing a spade from the same deck is 12/51 or .235. The
conditional probability of Person 2 drawing a spade after Person 1 draws a spade
is .25 x .235 = .0588.
359
Six Sigma Black Belt
Measure
Collecting and Summarizing Data
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Measure topic, all learners will be able to:
identify, define, classify and compare continuous (variables) and discrete
(attributes) data and recognize opportunities to convert attributes data to variables
measures.
define and apply nominal, ordinal, interval and ratio measurement scales.
define and apply methods for collecting data such as check sheets, coding data
and automatic gauging.
define and apply techniques for assuring data accuracy and integrity such as
random sampling, stratified sampling and sample homogeneity.
define, compute and interpret measures of dispersion and central tendency and
construct and interpret frequency distributions and cumulative frequency
distributions.
depict relationships by constructing, applying and interpreting diagrams and
charts such as stem-and-leaf plots, box-and-whisker plots, run charts and scatter
diagrams.
depict distributions by constructing, applying and interpreting diagrams such as
histograms, normal probability plots and Weibull plots.
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Six Sigma Green Belt web-based
Certification Preparation Course and the ASQ Foundations in Quality Learning
Series: Certified Quality Engineer.
361
Need for Measurement
"Measure what is measurable, and make measurable what is not so." - Galileo Galilei
Why do we need metrics?
In order to improve a process, it must be measurable. Measurements must provide an
organization with information, knowledge and value. Frequently, organizations either
lack formal data collection methods or implement complicated data collection efforts
without understanding whether the data produced ties back to the organization's
strategic goals.
As Jack F. Welch, Jr., former G.E. Chairman and CEO, stated: "Too often we measure
everything and understand nothing." Individuals within an organization must see the
value in the metrics used and the data collected. Successful data collection and metrics
should exhibit:
Purpose
Validity
Accuracy
Reliability
Sensitivity
Along with the above-mentioned data and metrics, asking the question, "What do I
need to know?" is critical before implementing a data collection effort.
362
Attribute Data
Data is information that is objective. There are two primary categories of data:
Attribute data
Variable or continuous data
Attribute data is also referred to as "discrete data." Discrete data are based on
counting things such as the number of statement processing errors, the number of loan
documentation errors or the number of customer call-back complaints. Discrete data
values can only be non-negative integers such as 1, 2, 3,... For that reason,
attribute/discrete data is also referred to as "count data." However, discrete data are
commonly expressed as a proportion or percent (e.g., percent of x, percent good,
percent bad).
Discrete data can typically answer such questions as:
How many defects occur on the production line?
How many trucks deliver to the docks each day?
How many waves hit the shoreline each hour?
363
Continuous Data
Variable or continuous data are measured on a continuum or scale. Data values for
continuous data can be any real number: 2, 3.4691, -14.21, etc. Continuous data can be
recorded at many different points and are typically physical measurements (e.g.,
volume, length, size, width, time, temperature, cost, etc.).
In general, measured data are more powerful than attribute, or count data. The data are
normally more precise due to the existence of decimal places that indicate higher
levels of accuracy and specificity.
The following is an example of run chart tracking continuous data. In the example
provided, the run chart illustrates the fluctuation in temperature over time for a
hospital patient.
364
Attribute versus Continuous Data
However, if the quality control specialist records the length of each football coming
off the production line with some sort of measuring device, then the measurements
collected are variable or continuous data.
365
Converting Data Types
Continuous data, by their very nature, tend to be more precise; they often use decimal
places to be as precise as possible. However, it is sometimes desirable to convert
continuous data into discrete data. Continuous data contain more information than
discrete data. And while continuous data can be converted to discrete data, discrete
data cannot be converted to continuous data.
Instead of measuring how much deviation from a standard exists (as in our football
example with measuring the lengths of footballs for continuous data), we may choose
to convert that data to discrete data because discrete data can be easier or quicker to
use. We might, for example, categorize the various lengths into groups to generate a
histogram. How many footballs fall between 11.25 inches and 11.30 inches? How
many footballs fall between 11.31 inches and 11.35 inches? Converting variable data
to attribute data may assist in a quicker assessment, but the risk is that information will
be lost when the conversion is made.
366
Measurement Scales
Scales of Measurement are commonly divided into four types as this table indicates:
367
Data Collection Methods
368
Check Sheets
A check sheet is a structured, prepared form for collecting and analyzing data. Check
sheets are usually comprised of a list or lists of items and some indication of how
often each item occurs. There are several types of check sheets, including the
following:
Confirmation check sheets focus on confirming whether all steps in a process
have been completed.
Process check sheets record the frequency of observations with a range of
measurement.
Defect check sheets record the observed frequency of defects.
Stratified check sheets record observed frequency of defects by defect type and
one other criterion.
Ishikawa (1985) estimated that between 80% and 90% of all workplace problems
could be identified using the simplest quality methods – a check sheet and a
histogram.
Benefits
Easy to use
Provides a choice of observations
Good for determining frequency over time
The following is an example of a mutually exclusive stratified check sheet:
369
Using Check Sheets
Procedure
1. Decide the event (problem) to be observed.
2. Develop operational definitions (descriptions or categories) for the observations.
3. Decide when the data will be collected and for how long.
4. Design the check sheet form to gather and organize the data.
5. Record by making check marks, Xs, tally marks or other similar symbols so that
data do not have to be recopied for analysis.
6. Label all spaces on the form.
7. Test the check sheet for a short trial period for appropriateness and ease of use.
8. Each time the targeted event or problem occurs, record the data on the check
sheet.
Use When
Collecting observable data.
Collection is managed by the same person or at the same location.
Collecting from a frequency or patterns of events, problems, defects, defect
location, defect causes, etc.
Collecting from a process.
User Tips
Carefully plan the sheet for easy use.
Be sure the observer knows what to observe.
Be sure the observer knows the definitions of categories used.
370
Coded Data
Use When
too many digits are listed into small blocks on a check sheet form.
errors increase when data-entry clerks try to read and enter large sequences of
digits from a single observation.
insensitivity of analytic results arise due to rounding of large sequence of digits.
attribute data such as yes, no, good or bad are collected and ‘coded’ into numbers
such as 'yes = 1', 'no = 2', etc.
data quantity is not enough for a statistical significance in the sample size - data
sets can be grouped together and coded to have enough of a sample size.
371
Gauging - Automatic and Other
372
Assuring Data Accuracy and Integrity
Data integrity and accuracy both play an important role in understanding whether
the data collection process is yielding usable data.
Data integrity determines whether the information being measured truly
represents the desired attribute.
Data accuracy determines the degree to which individual or average
measurements agree with an accepted standard or reference value.
Examples of a lack of data integrity:
A shipping company wants an accurate time for each truck departure, but the
computer in which the times are logged is located inside the production facility,
minutes away and inconvenient for recording of accurate data. In this example,
we think we are getting good data on departure times but the process is inhibiting
the collection of data with good integrity.
A manufacturing company points to distributors' sales reports to obtain data about
growing customer demand for a new product line. In reality, various distributors
use different definitions for their sales reports. Some reports record direct sales to
customers at the point of sale, while other reports record sales to large
distribution centers that indicate the number of units in stock at warehouses. Both
numbers reflect sales but may yield very different information about customer
demands for a product. In this example, the data does not have integrity since it
does not measure what the manufacturing company needs to be measuring.
Examples of a lack of data accuracy:
An electronic warehouse scale receives a short one night due to an electrical
thunderstorm. The weight data it yields subsequent to the electrical short does not
conform to the established standards for weights and measures.
An outdated gauge that measures the exhaust content from catalytic converters no
longer conforms to the standards of the Environmental Protection Agency for the
accuracy of its readings.
373
Sampling Strategies
In an ideal situation, we can measure every item in a population. Since that is not
always possible, we use sampling to obtain a representative group of items to measure.
Sampling strategies include the following:
Note: Random sampling may give each unit an equal chance at being selected, but it
can still be biased if it does not represent the population. Although "random" sampling
is used so the data will be representative, non-representative data can still be
collected, and other sampling strategies may be used instead.
A random number table is a tool that may be used to select sample data on a random
basis. Roll over Page Resources to view a random number table and instructions for
use.
374
Sample Homogeneity
Sample homogeneity occurs when the data chosen for a sample are similar or
maintain similar characteristics. Whereas stratified sampling ensures that data are
obtained from multiple strata of data within a population for the best possible results,
sample homogeneity looks at how alike the data are in a given sample. If data are
obtained from a variety of sources, such as several production streams or several
geographical areas (from different processes that may look the same but are different),
results will reflect these combined sources. The objective is to have data that are
homogeneous and reflect a single source to the degree possible. Otherwise, it will be
difficult to evaluate and determine the influence of the “X,” or input, of concern.
Data that are not homogeneous result in errors. For example, when production results
from a lab are inspected only at the end of the line or service, results are reviewed at a
national level and variation in all the sources of the product/service become part of the
results. To get to the root cause, drill down to the various sources. In other words, you
need to evaluate groups or sub-populations that can be analyzed by production line, by
geographic or economic group, or method of service delivery. You need to address
these sources of variation should be addressed at the source, not at the end of a
process.
Lack of homogeneity in data will mask the sources and make root cause analysis
difficult, if not impossible.
375
Central Tendencies
376
Central Tendency Challenge
Exercise
For the following data sets, calculate the mean, median and mode. When you have
completed the exercise, roll over Page Resources and click Central Tendency
Answer to check your calculations.
377
Central Tendency Answer
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Collecting and Summarizing Data | Central Tendency Challenge
Example: Central Tendency Answer
Answer:
Statistic Data Set 1 Data Set 2 Data Set 3
Mean 5 5 5
Median 5 4 6
Mode 5 3 and 4 (Bimodal) 1
Notice that data set 2 has a bimodal distribution in which two values (3 and 4)
occur more frequently in the data set than the rest of the values.
378
Measures of Dispersion
379
Frequency Distributions
Purpose
A frequency distribution graphically summarizes and displays the distribution
of a process data set.
380
Frequency Distributions Procedure
Procedure
1. Segment the range of the data into equal sized bars (also called bins, segments,
groups, categories or cells) with no overlaps. Looking at the example below, the
bars are: 0 - 1.1; 1.11 - 1.2; 1.21 - 1.3, etc. A general rule-of-thumb for
determining the number of bars in a histogram can be found in the following
table:
Number of Data Number of
Points Bars
50 7
8
9
100 10
11
150 12
13
200 14
2. Label the vertical axis ‘Frequency’ (the number of counts for each bar), and label
the horizontal axis of the histogram with the range of the response variable. For
this example the horizontal axis is labeled ‘Queue Time (Minutes).’
3. Determine the number of data points that reside within each bar and construct the
histogram.
381
Frequency Distributions Procedure
Use When
Ascertaining information about data (e.g., most common data point, distribution
type of the data, outliers).
382
Frequency Distribution Table
Another way to display frequency data is to use a frequency distribution table. This
is a compact way of displaying a set of measurements compared to listing all the
numbers.
Purpose
Gives direct information about how many data points are at each value
Example
Temperature Frequency
43 3
44 3
45 4
46 3
47 3
48 0
49 6
50 4
51 4
383
Cumulative Frequency Distribution
Purpose
To show the number of data at or below a particular variable
Example
For data point 45, add the cumulative frequency for the previous data point 44 (6),
plus the frequency for data point 45 (4). This gives you a cumulative frequency of 10
for data point 45. Finally, notice that the cumulative frequency for the highest data
point 51 is 30, the same as the total of the frequency column.
384
Graphical Methods
One of the most effective tools for the visual evaluation of data is a graph showing the
relationship between variables. In Six Sigma, graphical methods provide a visual
image of the data, and include stem-and-leaf plots, box-and-whisker plots, run charts,
scatter diagrams, histograms, normal probability plots and Weibull plots.
Graphical methods are used as a complement to numerical methods because graphs
are sometimes better suited than numerical methods for identifying patterns in the
data.
385
Stem-and-Leaf Plots
Designed by John Tukey (1977), a stem-and-leaf plot separates each number into a
stem (all numbers but the last digit) and a leaf (the last digit). As an example, for the
numbers 95, 99, 100 and 110, the stems are 9, 9, 10 and 11, while the leaves are 5, 9, 0
and 0.
Benefits
Easy and quick to construct
Shows shape and distribution
Visually compact
Convenient
Displays both variable and categorical data sets
Data may be read directly from the diagram. With a histogram the individual data
values may be lost as frequencies within a category
Example
The results of 24 students' spelling tests (with a best possible score of 50) are recorded
below:
8, 12, 16, 26, 28, 28, 29, 32, 34, 36, 38, 38, 39, 40, 42, 42, 44, 46, 46, 47, 47, 48, 48,
50
The stem-and-leaf-plot looks like this:
Stem Leaf
0 8
1 26
2 6889
3 246889
4 0224667788
5 0
Spelling scores of 24 students
The stem-and-leaf plot reveals that most students scored in the interval between 40
and 49.
386
Using Stem-and-Leaf Plots
Procedure
1. Some find it helpful to first write (sort) the data in numerical (ranking) order.
2. Separate the numbers into stems and leaves.
3. Group the numbers with the same stems.
4. Prepare an appropriate title and legend for the plot.
Use When
Classifying data.
Organizing data as it is collected.
User Tips
All numbers should have similar structure such as all whole numbers, all with
one decimal, etc. (e.g., [10, 15, 18] or [2.5, 3.8, 6.7]).
To find the median, count to half the total number of leaves.
Use good judgment when determining what to do with outliers because they can
either be significant pieces of information or poor information due to an error or
misinformation.
Roll over Page Resources and click Stem-and-Leaf Activity to practice a
stem-and-leaf plot.
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Stem-and-Leaf Activity
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Collecting and Summarizing Data | Using Stem-and-Leaf Plots
Example: Stem-and-Leaf Activity
Offline Activity
Materials needed: pencil, paper
Scenario
Create a stem-and-leaf plot for the following situation and identify the median:
The collected data tracked the number of emails sent by company staff between
October 3 and November 11.
506, 511, 482, 494, 453, 499, 509, 547, 501, 474, 490, 483, 504, 517, 488, 497, 502,
512, 513, 507, 480, 474, 495, 509, 498, 479, 505, 492, 480, 504
When complete, roll over Page Resources and then click Stem-and-Leaf Answer to
see the correct response.
388
Stem-and-Leaf Answer
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Collecting and Summarizing Data | Using Stem-and-Leaf Plots
Example: Stem-and-Leaf Answer
389
Box-and-Whisker Plots
Credited to John Tukey (1977), box-and-whisker plots use five key data points to
graphically depict all data in the sample or population:
The upper and lower quartiles of the data form the ends of the box.
The median forms the centerline within the box.
The minimum and maximum data points serve as end points to lines that extend
from the box (the whiskers).
Outlier data are represented by asterisks or diamonds outside of the minimum or
maximum points.
The box-and-whisker plot is also called a box plot or a five-number summary.
Benefits
Shows outliers
Useful with a large number of data sets
Provides a graphic summary of a data set
Visually represents the center, the spread, and the overall range
Indicates whether the distribution is skewed and possible unusual observations
Explores data and draws informal conclusions when two or more variables are
present
390
Using Box-and-Whisker Plots
Procedure
1. Write the data in rank (numerical) order.
2. Calculate the median.
3. Identify the lower quartile (values below the median) and calculate the median
for that group.
4. Identify the upper quartile (values above the median) and calculate the median
for that group.
5. Calculate the interquartile range by subtracting the medians of the upper and
lower quartiles.
6. Plot the three medians, the lowest value and the highest value (the 5-points) to a
number line.
7. Draw a box through the points of the upper and lower quartiles.
8. Draw a vertical line through the box at the median point.
9. Draw the whiskers from each end of the box to the smallest and largest values.
Use When
Comparing two or more sets of data.
Determining significance of an apparent difference.
User Tips
Box-and-whisker plots are good in the early stages of data analysis.
A simple rule is that a whisker longer than three times the length of the box
probably indicates an outlier.
There are several ways to describe the distribution:
The 5-number summary
Using the mean and standard deviation to interpret the spread.
Best used with symmetrical data and no outliers or high skew.
Better measures of center and spread.
Notes about the semi-quartile range:
Rarely used to measure spread.
Less subject to fluctuation samples in highly skewed spreads.
391
Run Charts
A predecessor of control charts, a run chart displays how a process performs over
time. With data points plotted in chronological order and connected as a line graph,
run charts may detect special causes of variation. Since shifts have an assignable
special cause, run charts provide a signal that leads to the cause. Run charts are also
called trend charts (variations on a control chart, but without the limits)
Benefits
Recognizes problem trends or patterns
Displays sequential data
Serves as a visual aid in spotting patterns and abnormalities
Monitors and communicates process performance
Presents information around a middle value (centerline)
392
Using Run Charts
Procedure
1. List the collected data in the sequence in which it occurred.
2. Order the data (lowest to highest) and determine the range.
3. Calculate the median.
4. Construct the Y-axis and make the scale 1.5 to 2 times the range.
5. Construct the X-axis and make it 2 to 3 times as long as the Y-axis.
6. Draw a dotted line to illustrate the median.
7. Plot the points and connect them to form a line graph.
8. Label each axis with units and title the chart to identify the investigation.
Use When
Displaying performance/process data over time.
Displaying tabulations or lists of numbers.
User Tips
Trends that are observable on the run chart may or may not indicate variation that
is beyond normal limits.
If 25 or more points of data exist, then a run chart may be used to determine if a
special cause exists that is causing variation in the process.
In this situation, three types of data patterns may indicate variation due to special
causes:
Trend: Six or more data points moving in one direction indicate a special
cause is influencing the process; flat line segments do not count toward the
trend or to reverse it.
Shift: Eight or more points on one side of the centerline indicate a special
cause acting on the process.
Cycle: A repeated pattern that occurs eight or more times may also be an
indication of a special cause.
As a general guideline, statistical control requires a minimum of 100 observations
without one of the above patterns occurring.
393
Scatter Diagrams
Scatter diagrams graph pairs of continuous data, with one variable on each axis, to
examine the relationship between them. Scatter diagrams may show what happens to
one variable when the other variable changes. This is particularly true when one of the
two variables is independent and one is dependent. The dependent variable is normally
charted along the vertical (Y) axis and the independent variable along the horizontal
(X) axis.
If the relationship between the two variables is understood, then the dependent
variable may be controlled. The relationship between the two variables may illustrate:
Correlation: A correlation suggests there is a relationship between the two
variables. A correlation does not necessarily mean that a cause and effect
relationship exists. A third characteristic (or more) might be the cause of both the
variables behaving as they do. A correlation may be:
Positive: as one variable moves in one direction, the second variable moves
in the same direction.
Negative: as one variable moves in one direction, the second variable moves
in the opposite direction.
No correlation exists.
Scatter diagrams are also called scatter plots, X-Y graphs or correlation charts
Benefits
Enhances cause-effect relationships
394
Using Scatter Diagrams
Procedure
1. Collect pairs of data for both variables.
2. Draw a graph with the independent variable on the horizontal axis (x) and the
dependent variable on the vertical axis (y).
3. For each pair of data, plot a dot (or symbol) where the x-axis value intersects the
y-axis value. (If two dots fall together, put them side by side, touching, so that
you can see both.)
4. If correlated, "eyeball" a line of best fit.
Use When
Acting on a hunch that two variables are related.
Evaluating paired continuous data.
Attempting to identify potential root causes of a problem by relating two
variables.
Following a brainstorming session to create a fishbone diagram.
Testing for autocorrelation before developing a control chart.
User Tips
The more the data resemble a straight line, the stronger the relationship (see
examples, below).
The tighter the data points along the line, the stronger the relationship.
Direction of the line indicates whether the relationship is positive or
negative.
If the line was hard to draw or see, and if the points show no significant
clustering, there is probably no correlation.
Do not assume that a relationship means that one variable caused the other
because another factor may influence both measured factors.
To determine the degree of association between the two variables, calculate the
correlation coefficient.
395
Using Scatter Diagrams
396
Normal Probability Plots
Normality probability plots, also called normal test plots, are used to investigate
whether process data exhibit the standard normal bell curve or Gaussian distribution.
The plot is defined by two parameters: mean and variance. For normally distributed
data, the mean and median are very close and may be identical. The normal
probability plot shows whether or not the data are distributed as a standard normal
distribution. Normal distributions will follow a linear pattern. In other words, if the
data plot along a straight line, then the plot is normally distributed.
The following is an example of a normal probability plot:
397
Using Normal Probability Plots
Use When
predicting and making decisions based on the data distribution.
differentiating when it is equally likely that readings will fall above or below the
average.
testing the assumption of normality.
User Tips
Most of the data concentrate at, or near, the centerline.
The centerline divides the curve into two equal halves.
Fewer of the data points approach the minimum and maximum values.
398
Weibull Plots
Another form of plot is the Weibull plot. Weibull plots are often used to estimate the
cumulative probability that a given sample will fail under certain conditions. The data
can be used to determine a point at which a certain number of samples will fail. Once
known, this information can help design a process such that no part of the sample
approaches the stress limitations.
The Weibull plot has special scales designed so that the data points will be almost
linear if they follow a Weibull distribution. The Weibull distribution has three
parameters but can use only two if the third is assumed:
α is the shape parameter
θ is the scale parameter
γ is the location parameter
399
Weibull Plots
400
Six Sigma Black Belt
Measure
Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Learning Objectives
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Learning Objectives
At the end of this Measure topic, all learners will be able to:
describe and apply the following distributions commonly used by black belts:
binomial, Poisson, normal, chi-square, Student's t and F distributions.
recognize when and how to use the following, less frequently used distributions:
hypergeometric, bivariate, exponential, lognormal and Weibull.
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Six Sigma Green Belt web-based
Certification Preparation Course and the ASQ Foundations in Quality Learning
Series: Certified Quality Engineer.
402
Introduction to Probability Distributions
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Introduction to Probability Distributions
Fitting data to distributions (e.g., normal, binomial, or Poisson) is helpful for purposes
of prediction and decision-making. A probability distribution is a tool that may help
identify whether a value will occur within a given range. Distributions help to answer
questions such as:
What is the probability that x will occur?
What is the probability that a value that is lesser or greater than x will occur?
What is the probability that a value between x and y will occur?
According to the ASQ Glossary, "a distribution is the amount of variation in the
outputs of a process, typically expressed by its shape, average, or standard deviation.
A distribution's shape may often be described by symmetry, skewness, and kurtosis."
For distributions that are symmetrical, the mean provides a good description of
the central tendency of the data.
For distributions that are skewed, the median is usually a better indicator of
central tendency.
Standard deviation provides a measure of variation from the mean.
Skewness provides a measure of the location of the mode relative to the mean. If
the mode, which is the highest point of the distribution, is to the mean's left, then
the skewness is negative. If the mode is to the right, then skewness is positive. If
the distribution is perfectly symmetrical, then skewness is equal to zero.
Kurtosis measures the peakness or relative flatness of the distribution. If the
distribution has a higher and narrower peak, then the kurtosis is higher. If the
distribution’s peak is flatter and wider, then the kurtosis is lower.
403
Probability Distributions for Different Data Types
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Probability Distributions for Different Data Types
404
Probability Density Functions
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Probability Density Functions
Age of House (yrs) – x axis 0-1.0 1.1-2.0 2.1-3.0 3.1-4.0 4.1-5.0 5.1-6.0 6.1+
Probability – y axis .20 .28 .20 .15 .10 .05 .02
These data are represented by a histogram that looks like the graph on the bottom left
of the page.
If points are plotted along the top of each vertical bar in the histogram, the histogram
suggests a curve similar to that seen in the graph on the right. The probability density
function would resemble the same shape. Using the example above, if the real estate
office manager wants to know the probability that a rental house is between 0 and 4
years of age, the PDF may be written in equation form for this problem:
P(0 ≤ x ≤ 4) = 0.20 + 0.28 + 0.20 + 0.15 = 0.83
This is true when f(x) is greater than or equal to zero for all values of x and the total
area under the graph is 1.
405
Probability Distribution Types
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Probability Distribution Types
View an introduction to the more common probability distributions used by Six Sigma
Black Belts in the table below. Detailed information will be provided for each
distribution type later in the lesson.
406
Probability Distribution Types
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Probability Distribution Types
407
Binomial Distribution
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Binomial Distribution
Where:
n = sample size
x = number of defectives or occurrences
p = probability or the proportion defective
1 – p = probability of the defect not occurring
The binomial probability distribution may also be used as an approximation to the
hypergeometric distribution when the sample size is less than ten percent of the
population. Conversely, the hypergeometric distribution is preferred when the sample
size is greater than 10% of the population. Refer to the page on hypergeometric
distributions to learn more.
408
Binomial Distribution Individual Example
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Binomial Distribution Individual Example
Example
The Sweet Shoppe produces many types of candy. Traditionally, their Pecan Caramel
Delites have a 1% defect rate. If we test a sample of ten candy units from the process,
what is the probability that there will be 0 defective candies?
Using the information outlined above:
n = 10
x = 0 (n units taken x at a time)
p = .01
Placing these values in the binomial distribution equation, the correct answer of 90.4%
is the probability of having 0 defective candies.
409
Binomial Cumulative Distribution Example
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Binomial Cumulative Distribution Example
Example
A manufacturing process is performing at a 5% nonconforming rate. What is the
probability that less than two units will be nonconforming for the sample taken from
the lot received?
The necessary values in this case are:
n = 10
p = 0.05
x = 0, 1
P(X = x) =nCxpx(1 - p)n-x
Where:
P(X = x) = the format used to denote probability
X = number of trials in an experiment that are successes
nCx = the number of ways of getting (x) successes on (n) trials:
10C0 is the combination of 10 units taken 0 at a time
10C1 is the combination of 10 units taken 1 at a time
The probability of interest is given by p(x < 2) = p(x = 0) + p(x = 1):
P(X < 2) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) =10C0(0.05)0(1 - 0.05)10-0+10C1(0.05)1(1 - 0.05)10-1
= 1(1)(0.95)10 + 10(0.05)(0.95)9
= 0.5987 + 0.3151
= 0.9138
The probability of selecting less than two nonconforming units out of the 10 possible
is 0.9138.
410
Poisson Distribution
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Poisson Distribution
Where:
f(x) = probability of x occurrences in the sample/interval
λ = mean number of counts in an interval (where λ > 0)
x = number of defects/counts in the sample/interval
e = a constant approximately equal to 2.71828
411
Poisson Distribution Examples
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Poisson Distribution Examples
Example
The serious accident rate in a large manufacturing plant is 3 per month. What is the
probability in August there will be 1 serious accident at the plant?
For this example, λ = 3 and x = 1. The probability of interest is given as x = 1:
The probability that exactly 1 serious accident will occur in August is approximately
0.15.
Cumulative
Now let us determine the probability that there will be at most 1 serious accident in the
month of September at this large manufacturing plant. The probability of interest is:
412
Poisson Approximation to the Binomial
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Poisson Approximation to the Binomial
The Poisson distribution can also be used to approximate the binomial if n ≥ 100 and
np < 10. As n gets larger, the Poisson distribution and the binomial distributions are
approximately equal, resulting in λ = np.
Example
In manufacturing automobiles, a company has been experiencing a defect
(nonconformity) rate of 7 per 100 autos. What is the probability of finding 5 or fewer
nonconforming autos in a sample of 100 autos taken from the next day's production?
This is a binomial problem, since there are two possible outcomes:
conformity/nonconformity. In this example, nonconformity is considered a "success"
because we are "successful" in observing an outcome of interest - in this case an auto
that does not conform to all requirements. The probability of a success is p = 7/100 =
0.07. The sample size of interest is n = 100. The probability of interest is p(x ≤ 5).
Either the binomial distribution or Poisson distribution may be used, since n ≥ 100
and np < 10.
Using the Poisson distribution as an approximation to the binomial, the necessary
formulation is:
Note: A Poisson distribution table could have been used here to find the solution to
the example above.
Roll over Page Resources at the bottom of the screen and click Poisson Distribution
Table to view and/or print for use as a job-aid.
Note: In this example we are interested in the number of nonconforming products, not
number of defects causing the nonconforming product. A ‘nonconforming auto’ is
defined as one that does not ‘conform’ in every way, (i.e, it may have one or more
defects).
413
Normal Distributions
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Normal Distributions
According to the ASQ Glossary, the normal distribution charts a data set of which
most of the data points are concentrated around the average (mean) in a symmetrical
manner, thus forming a bell-shaped curve. The normal distribution’s shape is unique in
that the most frequently occurring value is in the middle of the range and other
probabilities tail off symmetrically in both directions.
The normal distribution is used for continuous (measurement) data that is symmetric
about the mean. The graph of the normal distribution depends on two factors - the
mean and the variance. When the variance is large, the curve is short and wide; when
the variance is small, the curve is tall and narrow.
Assume both graphs below have the same scale. The curve on the left is wider than the
curve on the right because the curve on the left has a larger variance.
414
Standard Normal Distribution
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Standard Normal Distribution
415
Normal Dist. Single Observation Example
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Normal Dist. Single Observation Example
In the following equation, the random variable X follows a normal distribution with
mean μ and variance σ2. The random variable Z can be computed as:
The random variable Z also follows a normal distribution but with mean μ = 0 and σ2
= 1.
Example
The life of an automotive battery manufactured from a certain process is normally
distributed with mean life of μ = 800 days and a variance of σ2 = 225. What is the
probability that a randomly selected battery will have a life of less than 760 days? Roll
over Page Resources at the bottom of the screen and click Z Table to find the Z value
for the corresponding calculation.
The probability that a randomly selected battery will have a life of less than 760 days
is 0.00379.
416
Normal Dist. Sample Mean Example
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Normal Dist. Sample Mean Example
To find probabilities involving the sample average X, some information about the
distribution must be obtained.
If the random variable X follows a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2,
then the sample mean X for a sample of size n also follows a normal distribution with
mean μ and with variance σ2 / n.
The standard deviation, or "standard error of the mean," is:
If X for a sample of size n follows a normal distribution with mean μ and with
variance σ2 / n, then the random variable Z can be computed as:
The random variable Z also follows a normal distribution with mean μ = 0 and σ2 = 1.
If the population variance σ2 is not given or known, use the sample variance s2 as an
estimate for σ2.
Example
Returning to the example of automotive batteries with a mean life of μ = 800 days and
a variance of σ2 = 225, what is the probability that a random sample of 9 batteries will
have an average life of less than 750 days? Roll over Page Resources at the bottom of
the screen and click Z Table to find the Z value for the corresponding calculation.
Note: A Z of -4.99 (calculated value = -10) or less on the Z Table will result in a
probability of 0.
The probability that the average life of 9 randomly sampled batteries will be less than
750 days is 0.
417
Chi-Square Distribution
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Chi-Square Distribution
The chi-square (χ2 ) distribution is used when testing a population variance against a
known or assumed value of the population variance. It is skewed to the right (i.e., it
has a long tail toward the large values of the distribution).
The overall shape of the distribution will depend on the number of degrees of freedom
in a given problem. The degrees of freedom are 1 less than the sample size (i.e., if the
sample size is n, the degrees of freedom necessary for a particular problem are n - 1).
An example of a χ2 distribution with 6 degrees of freedom is shown below.
418
Student t Distribution
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Student t Distribution
The Student's t distribution was developed by W.S. Gosset (Student 1908) through
his work at the Guinness brewery. Since Guinness at that time did not allow its staff to
publish, Gosset used the pseudonym of “Student.”
The t distribution is commonly used to determine the confidence interval of the
population mean and confidence statistics when you are comparing the means of
sample populations.
To use the t distribution, we must know the degrees of freedom for the problem. The
degrees of freedom are 1 less than the sample size (i.e., if the sample size is n, the
degrees of freedom necessary for a particular problem are n - 1).
The student’s t distribution is a symmetrical continuous distribution. It is similar to the
normal distribution, but the extreme tail probabilities are larger than for the normal
distribution for sample sizes of less than 31. The shape and area of the t distribution
approach that of the normal distribution as the sample size increases. The t distribution
can be used whenever samples are drawn from populations possessing a normal,
bell-shaped distribution. There is a family of curves, one for each sample size from n =
2 to n = 31, in most tables given in standard statistics texts.
419
F Distribution
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: F Distribution
The F distribution (F-test) is a tool used for assessing the ratio of independent
variances (equality of variances). The F distribution is particularly important in the
Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) - a technique frequently used in the Design of
Experiments (DOE) to test for significant differences in variance within and between
test runs. ANOVA will be discussed along with examples in the Analyze lesson of this
course. The F-distribution is represented by:
Where:
s 2 is the variance of the first sample (n - 1 degrees of freedom in the numerator)
1 1
s 2 is the variance of the second sample (n - 1 degrees of freedom in the
2 2
denominator)
Given two random samples drawn from a normal distribution.
The shape of the F distribution is non-symmetrical and will depend on the number of
degrees of freedom associated with s12 and s22 . The distribution for the ratio of
sample variances is skewed to the right (the large values).
420
Hypergeometric Distribution
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Hypergeometric Distribution
The hypergeometric distribution is used when items are drawn from a population
without replacement. That is, the items are not returned to the population before the
next item is drawn out. The items must fall into one of two categories, such as
good/bad or conforming/nonconforming.
The hypergeometric distribution is similar in nature to the binomial distribution,
except the sample size is large compared to the population. The hypergeometric
distribution is appropriate whenever the sample size is greater than 10% of the
population (n > 0.1N).
The hypergeometric distribution determines the probability of exactly x number of
defects when n items are samples from a population of N items containing D defects.
The equation is:
Where:
x = number of nonconforming units in the sample (r is sometimes used here if
dealing with occurrences)
D = number of nonconforming units in the population
N = finite population size
n = sample size
421
Hypergeometric Distribution Example
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Hypergeometric Distribution Example
A group of 12 cellular telephones is being shipped to a local retailer. While the phones
are much in demand, the manufacturer has been having some problems with phones
being shipped with the wrong type of battery. Because the phones are in demand, the
retailer agrees to accept the shipment of 12 phones, but only if the shipment has fewer
than 3 defective phones. Because time is of the essence, the manager decides to only
inspect 4 phones (meaning the manager should find 1 or fewer defective phones).
Checking the sample of 4, the manager finds one phone with the wrong battery.
Should the remainder of the shipment be rejected?
Given the information provided above:
N = population of 12
D = number of defectives allowed at 3
n = sample size of 4
x = number of defectives in the sample of n
f(x) = probability of getting x defectives in the sample
For this example, it is necessary to solve the equation for both probability of 0 and 1
since the shipment would be accepted if it also had no defectives.
f(1 or less) = f(0) + f(1) = .764 of accepting a “bad quality” shipment. For most
retailers, this risk level would be unacceptable.
422
Bivariate Distribution
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Bivariate Distribution
When two variables are distributed jointly the resulting distribution is a bivariate
distribution. Bivariate distributions may be used with either discrete or continuous
data. The variables may be completely independent or a covariance may exist between
them.
The bivariate normal distribution - a commonly used version of the bivariate
distribution - may be used when there are two random variables. This equation was
developed by Freund in 1962:
Where:
-∞ < x < ∞
-∞ < y < ∞
-∞ < μ1< ∞
-∞ < μ2< ∞
σx > 0, σx > 0
μ1 and μ2 = the two population means
σ21and σ2 2 = the two variances
ρ = correlation coefficient of the random variables
Typically, you will use a statistical software package for calculating bivariate
distribution are calculated using a statistical software package.
423
Exponential Distribution
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Exponential Distribution
Exponential distributions are frequently used to analyze reliability, and are often
used to model items with a constant failure rate. The exponential distribution is closely
related to the Poisson distribution and used to determine the average time between
failures or average time between a number of occurrences. For example, if there is an
average of 0.50 failures per hour (discrete data - Poisson distribution), then the mean
time between failure (MTBF) is 1 / 0.50 = 2 hours (continuous data - exponential
distribution). If a random variable x is distributed exponentially, then its reciprocal y =
1/x follows a Poisson distribution. The opposite is also true. If x follows a Poisson
distribution, then the reciprocal y =1/x is exponentially distributed.
The exponential distribution equation is:
Where:
μ = the mean (also sometimes referred to as θ)
λ = failure rate which is the same as 1/μ
x = x-axis values
When this equation is integrated, it yields the following equation that gives the
cumulative probabilities without the need for a table:
424
Exponential Distribution Example
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Exponential Distribution Example
A Florida electric company experiences an average of 500 electrical outages each year
due to storms and hurricanes. What is the probability that the weekend crews, who
work from 6:00 PM on Friday evening to 6:00 AM on Monday morning, will not
receive a call?
Data summary:
μ = 500 electrical outages each year
Since there are 365 days in each year and 24 hours per day, then there are 8760
hours each year.
The time between each outage is 8760/500 = 17.52 hours between each outage
The weekend shift works 60 hours (1800 Friday through 0600 Monday);
therefore x = 60.
Using the equation from the previous page:
The chance that the weekend crew will not get a call is 3.3%, since 96.7% of the time
a call will be received during the 60 hours.
425
Lognormal Distribution
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Lognormal Distribution
The lognormal distribution can be used to model various situations such as response
time, time-to-failure data, and time-to-repair data. Lognormal distribution is a
skewed-right distribution (with most data in the left tail), and consists of the
distribution of the random variable whose logarithm follows the normal distribution.
The lognormal distribution assumes only positive values.
When the data follows a lognormal distribution, a transformation of data can be done
to make the data follow a normal distribution. Then probabilities can be found,
confidence intervals can be constructed, and tests of hypothesis can be conducted (all
of which depend on the assumption that the data follows a normal distribution).
The first column of the following table contains data that is lognormally
distributed. The second column contains the natural logarithm of the first column.
The second column is normally distributed.
426
Lognormal Distribution Data Plots
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Lognormal Distribution Data Plots
The data plotted in the histogram below follows a lognormal distribution. The
lognormal distribution is skewed, with most of the data in the left tail area and very
little data in the right tail area.
If the natural logarithm of each data point is taken and then plotted on the histogram,
the shape follows a normal distribution, as shown in the histogram below.
427
Lognormal Distribution Example
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Lognormal Distribution Example
Using the logarithm of the data instead of the original data, we can now use the
normal distribution to find probabilities associated with the data.
X follows a lognormal distribution with the following mean and variance:
The probability that X will be less than 13,000 is found using the relationship Y=ln(X).
Two transformations will occur in this example. The first is the change from
lognormal to normal and the second is from normal to standard normal. (Use this
transformation since Y is normally distributed and X is not; only then can the standard
normal distribution apply to find probabilities.) Using the standard normal distribution
discussed earlier, what is the probability that X is less than 13,000?
Roll over Page Resources at the bottom of the screen and click Z Table to find the Z
value for the corresponding calculation.
428
Lognormal Distribution Example
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Lognormal Distribution Example
The probability that the lognormal random variable X could be less than 13,000 is
approximately 0.84.
429
Weibull Distribution
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Weibull Distribution
Where:
X is a random variable
x is an actual observation
The shape parameter (β) provides the Weibull distribution with its flexibility.
If β = 1, the Weibull distribution is identical to the exponential distribution and
used to describe the bathtub curve.
If β = 2, the Weibull distribution is identical to the Rayleigh distribution (beyond
the scope of this course).
If 3 < β < 4, then the Weibull distribution approximates a normal distribution.
430
Weibull Distribution Plot
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Weibull Distribution Plot
As can be seen in the Weibull distribution chart below, the distribution can take on
many shapes and can be used to describe many types of data.
The shape parameter (β) defines the probability distribution function (PDF)
shape.
The scale parameter (θ) describes the magnitude of the x-axis.
431
Weibull Distribution Example
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Properties and Applications of Prob. Distributions
Concept: Weibull Distribution Example
The length of the life of a particular type of battery is known to follow a Weibull
distribution with shape parameter β = 2 and scale parameter θ = 4 (measured in
years). It is important to know the probability that a battery of this type lasts less than
the advertised lifetime of 2 years, P(X < 2). Let X represent the life of the battery.
What is the probability the battery will last less than 2 years?
There is approximately a 22% chance that the battery will last less than 2 years.
Cumulative Example
The time to failure in hours of an electrical circuit that is exposed to extremely high
temperatures has a Weibull distribution with shape parameter β = 0.6 and scale
parameter θ = 2(measured in hours). It is important to find the probability that the
time to failure of the circuit is at least 4 hours,P(X ≥ 4). Let X represent the time to
failure. What is the probability the time to failure of the circuit is at least 4 hours?
432
Six Sigma Black Belt
Measure
Measurement Systems
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Measure topic, all learners will be able to:
describe and review measurement methods such as attribute screens, gauge
blocks, calipers, micrometers, optical comparators, tensile strength and titration.
calculate, analyze and interpret measurement system capability using
repeatability and reproducibility, measurement correlation, bias, linearity, percent
agreement, precision/tolerance (P/T) and precision/total variation (P/TV).
use both ANOVA and control chart methods for non-destructive, destructive and
attribute systems.
understand traceability to calibration standards, measurement error, calibration
systems, control and integrity of standards and measurement devices.
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Six Sigma Green Belt web-based
Certification Preparation Course and the ASQ Foundations in Quality Learning
Series: Certified Quality Engineer.
434
Introduction to Measurement Methods
One of the important parts of the Measure phase is gathering the data to be used in the
project. Fortunately, there are numerous measurement methods available to help
obtain useful data. Click the measurement method below to view a description of
each.
Attribute Screens
Attribute screens use two categories for determining data outcomes: acceptable or not
acceptable, go or no go, pass or fail. This screen is typically used when the percentage
of nonconforming material is high or not known. A screen should evaluate the
attributes that are most helpful in identifying major problems with a product or
process.
Gauge Blocks
Gauge blocks are used in manufacturing to set a length dimension for transfer or for
tool calibration. Sets of these blocks usually come in groups of eight to eighty-one.
Gauge blocks are accurate to within a few millionths of an inch.
435
Introduction to Measurement Methods
Calipers
Calipers measure distance, depth, height, or length from either an inside or outside
perspective. Most calipers are tools that capture physical measurements and then
transfer them to a scale to determine the data.
Calipers come in several types: spring calipers, vernier calipers, dial calipers, and
digital calipers. Spring calipers – named for the type of joint that connects the two
sides – measure difficult to reach areas and are accurate to about a tenth of an inch. A
steel ruler is used for the transfer process of the measurement. Vernier calipers use a
vernier scale and are accurate to one thousandth of an inch. Vernier calipers are being
replaced by dial and digital calipers. Digital calipers, as the name implies, use an
electronic readout and are accurate to five thousandths of an inch.
Optical Comparators
An optical comparator compares a part to a form that represents the desired
dimensions. A beam of light is used to project a shadow of the object that is magnified
by a lens to determine whether the part fits within the tolerance levels established.
436
Introduction to Measurement Methods
Micrometers
Micrometers, commonly referred to as "mics", are handheld measuring devices
consisting of a basic C frame with the measurement occurring between a fixed anvil
and a movable spindle. Micrometers are similar to calipers and have a finely threaded
screw with a head that displays how much the screw has been moved in or out during
use. Micrometers measure items using a combination of readings on a barrel and a
thimble with accuracy to one thousandth of an inch.
Tensile Strength
Tensile strength represents the ability of a piece of metal to withstand the stress of
being pulled apart. The metal part is load-tested with additional weight until the part
fails. Related tests include the following:
Shear test ability measures the resistance to a sliding type of action with parallel
forces.
Compression test ability measures the results of forces on the outside of the item
pushing towards each other.
Fatigue test ability measures the repeated cycles of an action designed to cause
eventual failure in the product or item.
437
Introduction to Measurement Methods
Titration
Titration is a measurement method that examines the endpoint of a chemical reaction
and the quantity of a reactant in the titration flask. For example, a base liquid might be
added to an acid until the mixture becomes neutral. From this process, the level of acid
can be measured because the quantity of the base liquid that was added is known.
438
Measurement Systems Analysis
439
Gauge R and R Studies
440
Analysis of Variance Method (ANOVA)
ANOVA demonstrates how the total variation is partitioned using a procedure similar
to the following:
1. Choose a small number of parts (usually ten or fewer) in a random manner.
2. Select a characteristic to be measured.
3. Number the parts to identify each part specifically.
4. Select a few technicians or inspectors - usually five or fewer
5. Require the technicians or inspectors to measure the parts using the same
measuring device.
6. Repeat step #5 to obtain two complete sets of data.
7. Conduct an ANOVA analysis beginning with the construction of an ANOVA
table.
441
ANOVA Table
Given two parts (numbered 1 and 2) and three inspectors (labeled A, B and C), an
ANOVA table is constructed.
ColSqs = squaring the sum of the column and dividing by the column n
RowSqs = squaring the sum of the row and dividing by the row n
Interaction cell square = squaring the cell total and dividing by the cell n
X2 = x 2 + x 2 + ... + x 2 = 52.25
1 2 n
X = 24.5
N = 12
442
ANOVA Table
443
Measurement Correlation
444
Bias
Bias is often due to human error. Whether intentional or not, bias can cause inaccurate
or misleading results. In other words, bias causes a difference between the output of
the measurement method and the true value. Types of bias include:
Participants in a study tend to remember their assessments from prior trials, so
you should:
collect assessment sheets immediately after each trial.
change the order of the inputs, transactions or questions.
include an adequate waiting period after the initial trial to make
remembering details of the trial less likely.
Participants spend extra time when they know they are being evaluated, so give
specific time frames.
Another good example of bias occurs when equipment is set wrong. For example,
if the bathroom scale is set 15 pounds higher, a 150 pound person using the scale
will think they weigh 165 lbs.
If an instrument underestimates, the bias is negative. If an instrument overestimates,
the bias is positive. The equation for bias is:
Where:
n = the number of times the standard is measured
Xi = the ith measurement
T = the value of the standard
445
Linearity
Linearity is the variation between a known standard across the low and high ends of
the gauge. The purpose of measurement linearity is to determine the reliability of a
measuring instrument by indicating any linearity error or change in the accuracy of the
measuring instrument.
Linearity is illustrated in the diagram below.
When measuring linearity, draw a line through the data points to view a slope (b). The
slope is a "best fit" line that runs through the data points. Linearity is equal to the
slope multiplied by the process variation Vp (tolerance or spread). Typically, the lower
the absolute value of the slope, the better the linearity.
446
Gauge Linearity Plot
If gauge linearity error is relatively high, causes might include the following:
The gauge is not being calibrated properly at both the lower and upper ends of its
operating range.
There are errors in the minimum or maximum master.
The gauge is worn.
The internal gauge has faulty design characteristics.
447
Precision-Tolerance
Where:
m = measurement
The P/T ratio needs to be small to minimize the effect of measurement error. As the
P/T ratio becomes larger, the measurement method loses its ability to indicate a real
change in the process.
In Introduction to Statistical Quality Control, author Douglas Montgomery provides
more specifics, “Values of the estimated ratio [P/T] of 0.1, or less, often are taken to
imply adequate gauge capacity. This is based on the generally used rule that requires a
measurement device to be calibrated in units one-tenth as large as the accuracy
required in the final measurement. However, we should use caution in accepting this
general rule of thumb in all cases. A gauge must be sufficiently capable to measure
product accurately enough and precisely enough so that the analyst can make the
correct decision. This may not necessarily require that P/T be less than 0.1."
Forrest Breyfogle, in Implementing Six Sigma, utilizes illustrations of processes that
require less accuracy and which have P/T ratios < 0.3.
448
Precision-Total Variation
Where:
σm is the standard deviation of the measurement system
σ2pis the part-to-part variation
Be sure to keep the P/TV ratio as small as possible to reduce the effect of
measurement variation. As either the P/T or P/TV ratios become larger, the
measurement method loses its ability to indicate a real change in the process.
The bottom line is this: When the current measurement method cannot detect
variations, then you must select a new measurement method with a smaller
measurement variation.
449
Control Chart Method
The Measurement Systems Analysis (MSA) Reference Manual (AIAG, 1998) outlines a
control chart model using averages and range to study variability in measurement
methods. This model requires two or three replications (r), by two or three appraisers (
k), on 10 parts (n). The range average is found using this formula:
This average range value is proportionate to the standard deviation of the process. The
average range provides another source of understanding the variation using a specific
measurement method.
450
Metrology
451
Measurement Error
Measurement error is the degree to which the measuring instrument differs from a true
value. The formula for the error of an instrument is the following:
452
Calibration Systems
453
When to Calibrate
454
Six Sigma Black Belt
Measure
Analyzing Process Capability
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Measure topic, all learners will be able to:
identify, describe and apply the elements of designing and conducting process
capability studies, including identifying characteristics, identifying specifications
and tolerances, developing sampling plans and verifying stability and normality.
distinguish between natural process limits and specification limits and calculate
process performance metrics such as percent defective.
define, select and calculate Cp and Cpk, and assess process capability.
define, select and calculate Pp, Ppk, Cpm, and assess process performance.
understand the assumptions and conventions appropriate when only short-term
data are collected and when only attributes data are available.
understand the changes in relationships that occur when long-term data are used.
interpret relationships between long-term and short-term capability as it relates to
technology and/or control problems.
understand the cause of non-normal data and determine when it is appropriate to
transform.
compute sigma level and understand its relationship to Ppk.
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Six Sigma Green Belt web-based
Certification Preparation Course and the ASQ Foundations in Quality Learning
Series: Certified Quality Engineer.
456
Process Capability Studies
457
Two Opinions - Process Capability Studies
There is some controversy about the definition and use of process capability studies.
Two broad opinions of probability capability studies include:
Opinion 1: Process capability describes the overall capability of the process
operating at its best. This approach does not address how well the process meets
customer specifications directly. The analysis is usually completed on a
short-term basis with a 1.5 sigma adjustment to compensate for drifts in
long-term variability.
Opinion 2: Process capability describes how well a process functions relative to
customer specifications. This approach takes a longer term view of variance and
short-term or long-term views are usually not considered separately.
The information presented in this topic provides general information that represents
common approaches to the issue of process capability studies.
458
Process Capability Study Procedure
Procedure
1. Select a process to study. This process should be critical to the organization and
can be selected using several techniques (e.g., a Pareto analysis or a
cause-and-effect diagram).
2. Verify or define the process parameters. The process and its parameters may have
been selected in the Define phase. Verify what the process entails, its boundaries,
and gain agreement on the process’s definition. Many of these steps are
completed when developing a process map.
3. Conduct a measurement systems analysis to ensure that the measurement
methods produce sound data.
4. Select a process capability analysis method. Cpk, Cp, Ppk and Pp are presented and
calculated later in this sub-topic.
5. Obtain the data and conduct an analysis.
6. Develop an estimate of the process capability. This estimate can be compared to
the standards set by internal or external customers.
After completing a process capability study, address any special causes of variation
that can be isolated. If able, eliminate the special causes that are not desirable. In some
cases, a special cause of variation may be desirable if it produces a better product or
output. In that circumstance, if possible, attempt to make the special cause a common
cause to ensure the benefit is achieved equally on all output.
459
Identifying Characteristics
460
Specification Limits
Specification limits are set by the customer, and result from either customer
requirements or industry standards. The amount of variance (process spread) the
customer is willing to accept sets the specification limits. A customer wants a supplier
to produce 12-inch rulers. Specifications call for an acceptable variation of +/- 0.03
inches on each side of the target (12.00 inches). The customer is saying acceptable
rulers will be from 11.97 to 12.03 inches.
If the process is not meeting the customer's specification limits, two choices exist to
correct the situation:
Change the process's behavior.
Change the customer's specification (requires customer approval).
461
Stability and Capability
462
Drift and Process Capabilities
Drift, movement away from the target, is a sign of a changing process. After noticing
this signal of drift, identifying the cause of the drift must occur before corrective
action can be taken.
In the graphic, click DRIFT to demonstrate a drifting process and observe the
changing values.
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463
Process Capability Indices
The goal of performance metric indices is to establish a controlled process, and then
maintain that process over time. Numbered values are a shortcut method indicating the
quality level of a process in parts per million (ppm). Once the status of the process is
determined, the causes in variation (based on statistical significance) may be
identified. Courses of action might be to:
do nothing.
change the specifications (not very often).
center the process.
reduce the variation in the Six Sigma process spread.
accept the losses (not very often).
464
Process Limits
A stable process can be monitored to determine if changes that occur are due to factors
other than random variation. Such observation determines whether changes are
necessary and if any corrective actions are required.
Process limits are the voice of the process based on the variation of the products
produced. The supplier collects data over time to determine the variation in the units
against the customer's specification. These data points collected over time establish the
process curve.
Having a predictable process producing 100 percent conformances is the ideal state.
Day-to-day control charts help identify assignable causes to any variations that occur.
465
Graphing Process Capability
A process capability diagram displays both the voice of the process and the voice of
the customer.
To draw one of these diagrams:
1. Locate the mean of the distribution (X) and draw a normal curve that reflects the
upper and lower process limits (UPL, LPL) to the data.
2. Draw the customer specifications with the upper and lower limits for those
specifications as appropriate (USL, LSL). Note that a customer may only have a
lower limit or just an upper limit.
Example
Given: X = 12, σ = 1, Specifications 10 +/- 5
The process is off target (nominal) but within specifications.
466
Graphing Tips
Roll over Page Resources to display practice problems and to check your answers. Be
sure to label your diagrams as #1 and #2.
467
Practice Activities
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Analyzing Process Capability | Graphing Tips
Example: Practice Activities
468
Graphing Answers
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Analyzing Process Capability | Graphing Tips
Example: Graphing Answers
469
Introducing Process Capability Indices
Process capability indices (Cp and Cpk) and process performance indices (Pp, Ppk, and
Cpm) identify the current state of the process and provide statistical evidence for
comparing after-adjustment results to the starting point. Although these indices have a
common purpose, they differ in their approach.
According to Douglas C. Montgomery in Introduction to Statistical Quality Control,
an underlying assumption of the process capability ratios “is that their usual
interpretation is based on a normal distribution of process output.”
Click the name of the index at left to view information about it on the right.
Cp
Cp measures the ratio between the specification tolerance (USL-LSL) and process
spread.
A process that is normally distributed and is exactly mid-way between the
specification limits would yield a Cp of 1 if the spread is +/- 3 standard
deviations.
A generally accepted minimum value for Cp is 1.33 – this differs by industry, but
the larger the number the better.
Limitations to this index include its requirements for both an upper and lower
specification and is used once the process is centered.
Cpk
Cpk measures the absolute distance of the mean to the nearest specification limit.
Generally speaking, a Cpk of at least 1 is required and over 1.33 is desired, but
this differs for industries.
Cpk takes into account the centering process, unlike Cp.
Together with Cp, Cpk provides a common measurement for assigning an initial
process capability to center on specification limits.
470
Introducing Process Capability Indices
Pp
Pp measures the ratio between the specification tolerance and process spread.
Pp helps to measure improvement over time (as do Cp and Cpk)
Pp signals where the process is in comparison to the customer's specifications (as
does Cp and Cpk)
Ppk
Ppk measures the absolute distance of the mean to the nearest specification limit.
Ppk provides an initial measurement to center on specification limits.
Ppk examines variation within and between subgroups.
Cpm
Cpm is also referred to as the Taguchi index.
This index is touted by some to be more accurate and reliable than the other
indices.
Cpm is based on the notion of reducing the variation from a target value (T).
T represents the target – in this index, T receives more focus than the
specification limits.
Variation from the target T is expressed as process variability or σ2and process
centering (µ - T), where μ = process average.
Cpm provides a common measurement assigning an initial process capability to a
process for aligning the mean of the sample to the target.
Note: The use of these indices and equations varies by industry and author.
471
Using Cp
Use When
identifying the process's current state.
measuring the actual capability of a process to operate within customer defined
specification limits.
the data set is from a controlled, continuous process.
Information Needed
Standard deviation/Sigma (estimated from control charts or other process
information)
USL and LSL (specifications)
Normal probability distribution knowledge
472
Tips for Cp
User Tips
Cp only tells the amount of variation that is in the process.
Cp does not tell about the process's ability to align with the target (centered on the
customer requirement; this is Cpk's function).
Cp requires upper and lower spec limits.
For Cp - Think about firing a rifle at a target and 10 rounds are together in a 2
inch circle (very little variation).
Cp measures "can it fit" while Cpk measures "does it fit."
If Cp = Cpk, the process is centered.
Cp desired values vary by industry, but some general guidelines may include:
The higher, the better
If greater than 1.33, the process is generally considered capable
If between 1.00 and 1.33, the process may be capable but controls may be
necessary
If less than 1, the process is generally considered incapable
Data must be continuous and from a process that is under relative control or
stable.
473
Using Cpk
Use When
you have a data set from a controlled, continuous process.
Cpk does tell about the process's ability to align with the target (centered on the
customer requirement).
Information Needed
Continuous data
Standard deviation/Sigma (estimated from a control chart or other process
information)
Customer specifications (USL and LSL)
Calculate the mean of the process and use this to calculate the distance from the
nearest spec (DNS)
Test for normality of the probability distribution
User Tips
If Cpk = Cp, the process is centered.
Generally speaking, the larger the value, the better.
Data must be continuous from a controlled or stable process.
Calculate Sigma from data collected from control charts or other process
information.
Calculate DNS.
Decide which spec is the process center nearest (USL or LSL).
DNS = Mean - LSL or the UPS - mean.
The lesser of the two values is used from the following equations.
474
Calculating Cp and Cpk
To calculate Cp:
the tolerance band (USL - LSL) is divided by the process spread.
Example
X = 10, Sigma = 1, and Specifications = 10 +/- 4
Cp = (14 - 6) / 6(1)
Cp = 8 / 6
Cp = 1.33
To calculate Cpk:
subtract X value from the nearest spec limit, then divide the value by 3 sigma
Example
X = 10, Sigma = 1, and Specifications = 10 +/- 4
For USL:
Cpk = (14 - 10) / 3
Cpk = 4 / 3
Cpk = 1.33
For LSL:
Cpk = (10 - 6) / 3
Cpk = 4 / 3
Cpk = 1.33
When Cp = Cpk, the process is centered.
Using these examples as a model, calculate Cp and Cpk for each of the 2
previously-created process capability diagrams. To check your answer, roll over Page
Resources and click the appropriate example.
475
Calculation Answer #1
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Analyzing Process Capability | Calculating Cp and Cpk
Example: Calculation Answer #1
To calculate Cp, the tolerance band (USL - LSL) is divided by the process spread.
Given: X = 7, Sigma = 1, and Specifications = 10 +/- 4
Cp = (14 - 6) / (10 - 4)
Cp = 8 / 6
Cp = 1.33
To calculate Cpk, subtract X value from the nearest spec limit, then divide the
value by 3 sigma
Given: X = 7, Sigma = 1, and Specifications = 10 +/- 4
Cpk = (7 - 6) / 3
Cpk = 1 / 3
Cpk = 0.33
476
Calculation Answer #2
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Analyzing Process Capability | Calculating Cp and Cpk
Example: Calculation Answer #2
To calculate Cpk, the tolerance band (USL - LSL) is divided by the process
spread.
Given: X = 10, Sigma = 0.5, and Specifications = 10 +/- 1
Cp = (11 - 9) / (11.5 - 8.5)
Cp = 2 / 3
Cp = 0.67
To calculate Cpk, subtract X value from the nearest spec limit, then divide the
value by 3 sigma
Given:X = 10, Sigma = 0.5, and Specifications = 10 +/- 1
Cpk = (11 - 10) / 1.5
Cpk = 1 / 1.5
Cpk = 0.67
Note: Process variations are too great when both Cp and Cpk are less than 1.
477
Cp Check
Arrange the 3 graphs from lowest Cp value to highest. Click and hold the graph and
then drag into the appropriate answer box.
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478
Using Pp
Use When
the type of data collected is continuous.
the process is not in control (as shown by process control charts or other process
information).
Information Needed
Continuous data
Standard deviation/sigma (generated by using actual data, not estimated)
Upper and lower specification limits
Normal probability distribution knowledge
User Tips
Pp tells the amount of variation, but not alignment to the target (that's Ppk).
Estimate sigma from data collected from control charts or other process
information.
To be in control, a process must only have common causes for each of the data
points (no data points existing beyond the UCL or LCL).
479
Sigma and Process Capability
When means and variances wander over time, a standard deviation (symbolized by the
Greek letter σ) is the most common way to describe how data in a sample varies from
its mean.
A Six Sigma goal is to have 99.99976% error-free work (reducing the defects to 3.4
per million). By computing sigma and relating to a process capability index such as P
pk, you can determine the number of nonconformances (or failure rate) produced by
the process.
To compute sigma (σ), use the following equation for a population:
Where:
N = number of items in the population
X is the mean of the population data
x is each data point
To use the equation:
For each value x, calculate the difference between X (the mean) and x
Calculate the squares of these differences
Find the average of the squared differences (by dividing by N) – this equals the
variance σ2
Compute the square root of the variance to obtain sigma
480
Using Ppk
Use When
the type of data collected is continuous.
the process is not in control (as shown by process control charts or other process
information).
Information Needed
Continuous data
Sample size number
X and R-chart information
Standard deviation/Sigma (calculated by using actual data, not estimated)
USL and LSL
Normal probability distribution knowledge
User Tips
Ppk tells alignment to the USL and LSL (not the amount of variation).
Calculate sigma from actual data.
481
Using Cpm
Use When
the target is not the center or mean of the USL - LSL.
establishing an initial process capability during the Measure phase.
Information Needed
Value of the target
Continuous data
Sample size number
Standard deviation (sigma) calculated with actual data, not estimated
Normal probability distribution knowledge
Where:
T = target value
μ = expected value
σ = standard deviation
User Tips
Cpm is computed from data when the target spec is NOT the mean of the
USL-LSL data.
The higher the Cpm value, the more likely the process will produce output
meetings the specs and the target.
482
Calculating Cpm
To calculate Cpm:
divide Cp by the square root of the quantity1+(X-target)2divided by standard
deviation squared.
Example
X = 10, Sigma = 1, and Specifications = 10 +/- 4
Using this example as a model, calculate Cpm for each of the two previously created
process capability diagrams. To check your answer, roll over Page Resources and
click the appropriate example.
483
Calculation Answer #1
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Analyzing Process Capability | Calculating Cpm
Example: Calculation Answer #1
484
Calculation Answer #2
Six Sigma Black Belt | Measure | Analyzing Process Capability | Calculating Cpm
Example: Calculation Answer #2
485
Non-Normal Data Transformations
In the real world, data does not always fit a normal distribution. Since the process
capability indices are based on normal distributions, a method is needed to transform
non-normal data. Such transformation is usually achieved with the help of logarithms.
While statistical software is helpful in making this data conversion, one example of an
equation used to transform non-normal data is the following Box-Cox power
transformation, where values of Y are transformed to the power of λ (lambda) (i.e., Yλ
). This relationship has the following characteristics:
λ = -2 Y transformed = 1/Y2
λ = -0.5 Y transformed = 1/√Y
λ=0 Y transformed = ln (Y)
λ = 0.5 Y transformed = (√Y)
λ=2 Y transformed = Y2
A logarithm is then selected to apply to the data using the following function:
Where:
x(λ) = (xλ - 1) / λ where λ ≠ 0
x(λ) - ln(x) where λ = 0
486
Short-term Capability
487
Converting Process Capability to PPM
Tables exist transposing different capability indexes into parts per million of
nonconformance. For example:
488
Lesson Summary
489
Lesson Bibliography
490
Six Sigma Black Belt
Analyze
Lesson Introduction
Once the Measure Phase has been completed, it is now time to move into the Analyze
phase and begin exploratory data analysis. The primary focus of analysis is to begin to
closely examine our output (Y) to understand the variables or inputs (Xs) and their
effects. The Black Belt's responsibility is to gather the Xs identified in the Measure
phase and perform analysis to narrow the Xs from possible to probable. To better
understand this concept, the ASQ Body of Knowledge provides the following topics:
Exploratory data analysis
Use multi-vari studies to interpret the difference between positional, cyclical and
temporal variation.
Design sampling plans to investigate the largest sources of variation.
Create and interpret multi-vari charts.
Calculate the regression equation.
Apply and interpret hypothesis tests for regression statistics.
Use the regression model for estimation and prediction, and analyze the
uncertainty in the estimate.
Calculate and interpret the correlation coefficient and its confidence interval.
Apply and interpret a hypothesis test for the correlation coefficient.
Understand the difference between correlation and causation.
Analyze residuals of the model.
Hypothesis testing
Define, compare and contrast statistical and practical significance.
Apply and interpret the significance level, power, type I and type II errors of
statistical tests.
Understand how to calculate sample size for any given hypothesis test.
Define and interpret the efficiency and bias of estimators.
Compute, interpret and draw conclusions from statistics such as standard error,
tolerance intervals and confidence intervals.
Understand the distinction between confidence intervals and prediction intervals.
Apply hypothesis tests for means, variances, and proportions and interpret the
results.
Define, determine applicability, apply and interpret paired-comparison parametric
hypothesis tests.
Define, determine applicability, apply and interpret chi-square tests.
Define, determine applicability, apply and interpret ANOVAs.
Define, determine applicability and construct a contingency table and use it to
determine statistical significance
Define, determine applicability and construct various non-parametric tests
including Mood's Median, Levene's test, Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney.
492
Lesson Overview
The tools and objectives of the Analyze phase are illustrated below.
493
Six Sigma Black Belt
Analyze
Exploratory Data Analysis
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Analyze topic, all learners will be able to:
use multi-vari studies to interpret the difference between positional, cyclical and
temporal variation.
design sampling plans to investigate the largest sources of variation.
create and interpret multi-vari charts.
calculate the regression equation.
apply and interpret hypothesis tests for regression statistics.
use the regression model for estimation and prediction and analyze the
uncertainty in the estimate.
calculate and interpret the correlation coefficient and its confidence interval.
apply and interpret a hypothesis test for the correlation coefficient.
understand the difference between correlation and causation.
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Six Sigma Green Belt web-based
Certification Preparation Course.
495
Multi-vari Studies
Data can be grouped in terms of sources of variation to help define the way
measurements are partitioned. These sources describe characteristics of populations,
and the following are common types that describe our everyday processes:
Classifications (by category)
Geography (of a distribution center or a plant)
Geometry (chapters of a book or locations within buildings)
People (tenure, job function or education)
Time (deadlines, cycle time or delivery time)
We can stratify the data to help us
understand the way our processes work by
categorizing the individual measurements.
This helps us understand the variation of
the components as it relates to the whole
process.
For example, errors are being tracked in a
process. The variation could be within a
subgroup (within a certain batch),
between subgroups (from one batch to
another batch) or over time (time of day,
day of week, shift or even season of the
year).
496
Multi-vari Charts
A Multi-vari chart is a tool that graphically displays patterns of variation and the
stability or consistency of a process. It is used to identify possible Xs or families of
variation in the preliminary stages of data analysis. Multi-vari charts categorize data as
positional (within a subgroup), cyclical (between subgroups) and temporal (over
time).
You can also detect differences in the inputs (Xs) by using two diagrams presented in
the Measure lesson of this course:
boxplots (e.g., box-and-whisker plots) when the (Y) is continuous and the (Xs)
are discrete
scatterplots (e.g., scatter diagrams) when the (Y) is continuous and the (Xs) are
also continuous
497
Boxplot Question
A. No relationship
B. Median errors are highest for the 1st shift.
C. 1st shift and 3rd shift may be statistically different.
D. Median errors are lowest for the 3rd shift.
498
Scatterplot Question
Cyclical VariationThe number of errors produced (Y) is plotted on the y axis, and
the years of experience of operator (X) are plotted on the x axis. Is there a
relationship between the number of errors produced and years of operator
experience?
A. No relationship
B. Moderate linear relationship
C. Strong positive linear relationship
D. Strong negative linear relationship
499
Sources of Variation
Positional
See also: within-part variation
Within a subgroup or sample set: refers to variation of a characteristic on the same
product such as part thickness, data entry on a form, pages of a document, etc.
Cyclical
See also: part-to-part variation
Refers to variation between subgroups or from sample to sample. Some examples are
call center, sales region, processing center, staff member, etc.
500
Sources of Variation
Temporal
Refers to variation in change over time, either as time on a clock/calendar or duration.
Some examples are season of the year, time of day, day of week, cycle time, shift, etc.
501
Design Types
The two most common designs of categorical variation are nested and crossed, with
nested being the most typical. Click each design type to learn more.
Nested
In this type of design, one source of variation is found within or nested in another
such as positional, cyclical and temporal. An example of nested design variation is
given below using a loan documentation package comparing all categories together:
Within subgroup or sample set (positional): gathering data about the specific
fields on a page of the form
Between subgroups or from sample to sample (cyclical): tracking data entry
errors produced by loan processing associates
Over time (temporal): tracking data entry errors produced by loan processing
associates by peak production times of the day
Crossed
In this type of design, the sources of variation can be manipulated independently,
placing it in distinct order to reveal patterns. This type of design helps to identify
interactions between the independent variables. An example of crossed design
variation using a loan documentation package is:
positional: comparing data entry fields on two different pages of the loan
documentation form.
cyclical: comparing data entry errors for two different loan processing centers.
temporal: comparing data entry errors for different days of the week.
502
Variation Question
Shown below are boxplots depicting positional, cyclical and temporal variations,
which are helpful in the preliminary data analysis to show early relationships and to
focus and prioritize time and effort. Match each variation term to its corresponding
graph by dragging the term to the box underneath the correct graph.
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503
Multi-vari Sampling
Multi-vari analysis uses sources of variation to stratify the data to begin to turn the
possible Xs into the probable Xs. Multi-vari analysis helps narrow the focus and
serves as a point where we begin to gather samples to determine if the probable Xs are
statistically significant.
A sampling plan is critical in investigating the largest sources of variation. Sampling
plans should be designed in such a way that the resulting data will contain a
representative sample of the parameters of interest.
Please review each step on the following page to learn more about sampling.
504
Multi-vari Sampling Steps
505
Multi-vari Sampling Steps
506
Multi-vari Studies Exercise
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507
Regression and Correlation Introduction
In Six Sigma projects where the input and output variables are both continuous and we
want to see if there is a relationship between the two variables, we use statistical tools
called regression and correlation.
508
Simple Linear Regression Introduction
The hat symbol (^) is used to denote estimated and predicted values.
Two types of coefficients in simple linear regression are the intercept and the slope:
The intercept is the value of y when x is zero. It is denoted as the estimate b0.
The population parameter for the intercept is β0.
The slope is the amount of increase (or decrease) in y (rise) over a specific
increase in x (run). This is denoted as the estimate b1. The population parameter
for the slope is β1.
Ho: b1= 0 (Coefficient A low p-level for this test, typically (< 0.05), means there is evidence to
not significant) believe that the slope of the line is not 0.
Ha: b1≠ 0 (Coefficient
significant)
509
Simple Linear Regression Equation
For the purpose of this course, the regression equation will be calculated starting with
the mathematical equation for a straight line:
y = b0 + b1 X , where b0 is the y intercept when X = 0 and b1 is the slope of the line.
We assume for any given value of X, the observed value of Y varies in a random
manner and possesses a normal probability distribution. This concept is depicted in the
following diagram:
510
Method of Least Squares
The method of least squares is a statistical procedure to find the best-fit line that
minimizes the sum of squares of the deviations of the observed values of Y from those
predicted. This formalizes the scatter plot or fitted line plot procedure when plotting
(X) and (Y) data on a graph. After plotting the data, use a ruler to pass through the
majority of the points providing what is considered the best-fit line. The data are
evaluated against the line to see obvious deviations of the data from the line.
Least square estimator equations
511
Best-Fit Line Exercise
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512
Fitted Line Plot Exercise
A jewelry store wants to ascertain the relationship between the number of repairs and
the amount of time required to repair an item. A plot of this relationship is shown
below. Drag the "best-fit" term to the plot depicting the "best-fit" simple regression
line.
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513
Simple Linear Regression Example
The customer change request process within the corporate account department is a
project of interest for process improvement. The department manager wants to find the
relationship between the number of change requests processed per month and the cost
per transaction.
514
Simple Linear Regression Calculation
515
Simple Linear Regression Prediction Equation
516
Uncertainty in the Estimate
Looking at the simple regression example of the cost per transaction based on the
number of customer change requests:
Given α =.05, the Z number for 0.95 (1-α) is 1.96. Approximately 95% of the
population of the data points lie within 1.96(0.00656) = 0.013 of the regression line.
517
Simple Linear Regression Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis tests can be applied to determine whether the independent variable (x) is
useful as a predictor for the dependent variable (y). The following are the steps using
the cost per transaction example for hypothesis testing in simple regression:
Step 1: Determine if the conditions for the application of the test are met.
There is a population regression equation Y = β0 + β1 so that for a given value of
x, the prediction equation is
518
Hypothesis Testing T-Values
519
Hypothesis Testing Interpreting Results
520
Simple Linear Regression Question
The following is a simple linear regression problem for you to complete. When
finished, roll over Page Resources at the bottom of the screen and click Regression
Answer to see if you are correct.
A manager of a retail store wants to find the relationship between the number of boxes
shipped and the number of items damaged. A random sample of six shipments is
selected and the data have been recorded as follows:
Boxes Shipped (X) Items Damaged (Y) X2 Y2 (X)(Y)
18 2 324 4 36
23 1 529 1 23
41 3 1681 9 123
35 1 1225 1 35
27 1 729 1 27
39 2 1521 4 78
S 183 10 6009 20 322
u
A 30.5 1.7
v
g
521
Regression Answer
Six Sigma Black Belt | Analyze | Exploratory Data Analysis | Simple Linear Regression Question
Example: Regression Answer
522
Multi. Linear Regression Introduction
Multiple linear regression expands on the simple linear regression model to allow for
more than one independent or predictor variable.
The general form for the equation is:
y = b0 + b1x + ... bn+ e
Where:
(b0,b1,b2 …) are the coefficients and are referred to as partial regression
coefficients.
The equation may be interpreted as the amount of change in y for each unit increase in
x (variable) when all other xs are held constant.
The hypotheses for multiple regression are:
Ho: b1 = b2 = ... = bn
Ha: b1 ≠ 0 for at least one i
523
Coefficient of Determination
Coefficients are estimated by minimizing the sum of squares (SS) residuals. The
coefficients follow a t-distribution, which allows us to use t-tests to assess their
significance. The coefficient of determination, R2, or multiple regression
coefficient, is the proportion of variation in Y that can be explained by the regression
model and is the square of r. In multiple regression, R2 adj (adjusted value) represents
the percent of explained variation when the model is adjusted for the number of terms
in it. Ideally, R2 should be equal to 1, indicating that all of the variation is explained
by the regression model.
0 ≤ R2 ≤1
Related to the coefficient of determination is the correlation coefficient, which ranges
from -1 ≤ r ≤ 1 and determines whether there is a positive or negative correlation in
the regression analysis, where r is the coefficient of correlation determined by sample
data and an estimate of ρ (rho), the population parameter.
524
Coefficient of Determination Equation
R2 Equation
R2= SSregression / SStotal = (SStotal – SSerror) / SStotal = 1- [SSerror / SStotal]
Where SS = the sum of squares
R2adj Equation
R2adj = 1- [SSerror / (n – p)] / [SStotal / (n -1)]
Where:
n = number of data points
p = number of terms in the model including the constant
Unlike R2, R2adj can become smaller when added terms provide little new information
and as the number of model terms gets closer to the total sample size. Ideally, R2adj
should be maximized and as close to R2 as possible.
525
Multi. Linear Regression Example
Software programs are normally used to calculate the partial regression coefficients
of multiple regression. For the purpose of this course, R2adj will be the focal point so
that a clear understanding of this value is evident in interpreting the results.
Example
The following is an example of multiple regression building upon the simple
regression model as seen previously using the data captured from a computer output
session window:
The manager of a commercial account department wants to find the relationship
between cost per transaction and a set of predictor variables believed to be related to
the cost. The terms are:
Y: Cost per transaction
X1: System issues
X2: Change requests
X3: Exception processing
526
Multi. Linear Regression Example Equation
Data from 29 runs are collected and shown in the table below:
527
Multi. Linear Regression Example ANOVA
528
Multi. Regression Example Model Refit
529
Multi. Linear Regression Example Results
The value, R2adj, as seen in the data output table on the previous page adjusts the R2
coefficient by the number of terms in the regression model.
In this example, it would appear that 84.8% of the variation in Y is explained by
this regression model.
Shown below is the calculation of the R2adj equation using the data from the data
output table:
R2adj = 1- [SSerror / (n – p)] / [SStotal / (n -1)]
= 1 – [2074.3 / (29-3)] / 14681.9 / (29-1)] = 0.848
530
Regression User Tips
Click each user tip below for helpful information about regression.
User Tip #1
Using the regression equation to predict a value of the dependent variable outside the
range of the independent variable is not recommended since you have no evidence that
the same linear relationship exists outside the observed range.
For example, think about the relationship between a person’s height to age. Early on,
it would seem that as age increases so does height. Using that data to predict height
past the age of 16 would indicate that you would be 10 feet tall at some point!
User Tip #2
Many different relationships between Xs and Y can yield similar mathematical results.
Plot the data points by hand or by using a statistical software program before
interpreting any regression statistics. Linear regression is only appropriate for data that
can be plotted in an approximately straight line.
531
Simple Linear Correlation Introduction
532
Correlation Coefficient
Correlation does not imply causation. Do not assume that a scatter plot pattern means
the two variables are related. It is likely that there is a correlation but possibly not
causation. The correlation tool does not establish causation. Relationships over a wider
range of data or a different portion of the range of data may exist. For example, there
is a strong association between increased income and age or seniority. Do not assume
that your income will increase because you are older or because you have more
experience or seniority.
0 ≤ R2 ≤ 1
533
Correlation Key Points
Description Value
Correlation coefficient range -1 ≤ r ≤ 1
Positive values +r occurs when the value of one variable
increases and the other variable increases
Perfect positive correlation r = +1
Negative values -r occurs when the value of one variable
increases and the other variable decreases
Perfect negative correlation r = -1
Moderate correlation Typically when values of r range from 0.3 to
0.7
Strong correlation Typically when values of r range from 0.7 to 1
No linear correlation r=0
534
Correlation Testing Conditions
535
Correlation Example Hypotheses
The following lists the steps to calculate the correlation coefficient and the t-test
statistic:
The customer change request process within the corporate account department is a
project of interest for process improvement. From the data that have been collected,
the number of change requests processed per month seems to have a relationship to an
increased cost per transaction. Given α = 0.05, is there a statistical correlation?
Step 1: Establish hypotheses.
Ho: ρ = 0 or No correlation
Ha: ρ ≠ 0 Correlation (two-tail test) (reject
values include both tails of the frequency
distribution)
In addition to ρ ≠ 0, the alternative
hypothesis could be either of these:
ρ < 0 for a left-tail test (reject values
are in the tail of the frequency
distribution less than the critical
value)
ρ > 0 for a right-tail test (reject
values are in the tail of the frequency
distribution greater than the critical
value)
Step 2: Decide on a value of α.
α = 0.05 was given
536
Correlation Example Data Table
537
Correlation Example Determining Results
538
Correlation Example Critical T-Values
Step 4: Determine r.
Since r = .99, there is a strong positive correlation between customer change requests
and cost per transaction.
Step 5: Find the critical t values.
Use the T - table and find the critical values:
tα/2,2 and - tα/2,2 for the two-tail test
- tα,2 for the left-tail test
tα,2 for the right-tail test
For this example, we will be using the two-tail test. Roll over Page Resources at the
bottom of the screen and click T-table. Look in the t-table using n – 2 degrees of
freedom (4 -2 = 2 df) and the t0.025 column. The critical values are 4.303 and -4.303.
539
Correlation Example Calculated T-Values
540
Correlation Coefficient Confidence Interval
According to ASQ's Glossary and Tables for Statistical Quality Control, "a confidence
interval is an estimate of the interval between two statistics that contains the true
value of the parameter with some probability."
For a moderately large sample size (n ≥ 25), the 100 (1 – α)% confidence interval on ρ
is given by:
Where:
r is the estimate of the correlation coefficient.
ln is the natural logarithm of the quantity in parentheses behind it.
tanh(x)= (ex – e-x)/(ex + e-x) (tanh stands for hyperbolic tangent function:
trigonometric mathematical functions related to a hyperbola rather than a
circle. Hyperbolic functions include the hyperbolic sine, hyperbolic cosine,
hyperbolic tangent, hyperbolic cotangent, hyperbolic secant, and hyperbolic
cosecant).
Zα/2 is the multiple corresponding to a confidence level of 1 – α found from the
standard normal distribution.
Result
If 0 is contained in the confidence interval, then we conclude that the true correlation
coefficient is not significantly different from 0.
541
Correlation Confidence Interval Example
542
Correlation Confidence Interval Example Continued
Using the values found above, we can find the left and right sides of the confidence
interval:
Therefore, we are 95% confident that the true correlation coefficient lies between
–0.0456 and 0.6099. Since 0 is contained in the interval, we conclude that the
correlation between time to failure and temperature is not significantly different from
0, that is, there is no significant linear relationship between time to failure and
temperature.
543
Correlation Exercise
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544
Diagnostics
Residuals
In the equations for simple (y = b0+ b1X + e) and multiple linear regression (y = b0 + b
1x + … bn + e), residuals are described as the best estimate of the error term (e) and
are the difference between the predicted response variable for any given x and the
actual response:
545
Residuals
As seen in the following graph, the line is drawn according to the method of least
squares. Residuals account for the unexplained in Y after the “best-fit’ line is drawn.
Looking at the Y-axis, the residuals are the vertical distance of each individual point
from the line.
546
Residual e-value
The prediction equation from the simple regression example shown previously in the
Simple and Multiple Least-Squares Linear Regression sub-topic was:
where x was the number of change requests predicting Y, the cost per transaction.
Change Requests Cost per Predicted Cost per
Transaction Transaction
547
Residual e-value Data Plot
As you can see from the above image, the lack of data makes it impossible to reach a
conclusion about the plotting of the data. Let us take a look at the multiple regression
example where other Xs such as system issues and exception processing were also
analyzed in addition to change requests.
548
Residual Plots
The normal probability plot of the residuals is used to help determine whether the
variables display a linear pattern consistent with a normal distribution showing points
approximately on a straight line. The normal distribution was discussed in the Measure
lesson of this course.
This normal probability plot shows an approximately linear pattern consistent with a
normal distribution. The two points in the upper-right corner of the plot may be
outliers (unnatural patterns).
Histogram
A histogram will help indicate if any outliers exist in the data so that they can be
eliminated from the data refitting the model.
This histogram indicates that outliers may exist in the data, shown by the two bars on
the far right side of the plot.
549
Residual Plots
The plot of residuals versus the fitted values (predictors) shows that the residuals get
smaller (closer to the reference line or 0) as the fitted values increase, which may
indicate that the residuals have a non-constant variance. Recognizable patterns reflect
a consistent variance and indicate that the model may not be valid. The error may not
be random if there is a series of increasing or decreasing points or a large number of
positive or negative residuals.
Residuals are plotted in the order that the data was collected and can be used to find
non-random error, especially of time-related effects. If a trend or pattern were evident,
it would indicate that there is a time order dependency in the data and that the model
might not be valid.
550
Multicollinearity Diagnostics
Correlation coefficient
The VIF measures the correlation between an X and other Xs in the regression.
VIF measures how much the variance of an estimated regression coefficient
increases if the predictors are correlated.
ri 2 is close to 1 if xi has a strong relationship with other Xs.
Typically, if the VIF calculation is greater than 10, the regression coefficients
may not be estimated adequately.
551
Diagnostic User Tips
552
Measuring and Modeling Relationships Exercise
For each equation listed on the right, drag the corresponding equation name to the box
on the left.
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553
Six Sigma Black Belt
Analyze
Hypothesis Testing
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Analyze topic, all learners will be able to:
define, compare and contrast statistical and practical significance.
apply and interpret the significance level, power, type I and type II errors of
statistical tests.
understand how to calculate sample size for any given hypothesis test.
define and interpret the efficiency and bias of estimators.
compute, interpret and draw conclusions from statistics such as standard error,
tolerance intervals and confidence intervals.
understand the distinction between confidence intervals and prediction intervals.
apply hypothesis tests for means, variances and proportions, and interpret the
results.
define, determine applicability, apply and interpret paired-comparison parametric
hypothesis tests.
define, determine applicability, apply and interpret chi-square tests.
define, determine applicability, apply and interpret ANOVAs.
define, determine applicability and construct a contingency table, and use it to
determine statistical significance.
define, determine applicability and construct various non-parametric tests
including Mood's Median, Levene's test, Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney.
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Six Sigma Green Belt web-based
Certification Preparation Course.
555
General Sequencing
556
Statistical vs. Practical Significance
Practical Significance
Practical significance is the amount of difference, change or improvement that will
add practical, economic or technical value to an organization.
Example - A 20% reduction in cycle time is a practical significance in a process
improvement project. This project objective/benefit exceeds the cost and risk of
implementation.
Statistical Significance
Statistical significance is the magnitude of difference or change required to distinguish
between a true difference, change or improvement and one that could have occurred
by chance. The larger the sample size, the more likely the observed difference is close
to the actual difference.
Example - A statistical difference of 0.25% at α = 0.05 may exist between two
different sites of a large global corporation that manufacture the same product.
However, the cost savings accrued by eliminating the difference is not economically
justifiable.
557
Statistical vs. Practical Significance
Determining Significance
Determining practical significance in a Six Sigma project is not the responsibility of
the Black Belt alone. You need to collaborate with others such as the project
Champion/Sponsor and finance manager to help determine the return on investment
(ROI) associated with the project objective.
558
Hypothesis Testing Introduction
Hypothesis Testing
A hypothesis is a theory about the relationships between variables. Statistical analysis
is used to determine if the observed differences between two or more samples are due
to random chance or to true differences in the samples.
Null Hypothesis
A null hypothesis assumes no difference exists between or among the parameters
being tested and is often the opposite of what is hoped to be proven through the
testing. The null hypothesis is typically represented by the symbol Ho.
Example:
Ho: μ1 = μ2
Alternate Hypothesis
An alternate hypothesis assumes that at least one difference exists between or among
the parameters being tested. This hypothesis is typically represented by the symbol Ha.
Examples:
Ha: μ1 < μ2
Ha: μ1 > μ2
Ha: μ1 ≠ μ2
Phrasing
In hypothesis testing, the phrase “to accept” the null hypothesis is not typically
used. In statistical terms, the Six Sigma Black Belt can reject the null hypothesis,
thus accepting the alternate hypothesis, or fail to reject the null hypothesis. This
phrasing is similar to jury's stating that the defendant is not guilty, not that the
defendant is innocent.
559
Hypothesis Testing Steps Introduction
The following list provides a typical step-by-step plan for performing hypothesis
testing:
1. Define the practical problem.
2. Define the practical objective.
3. Establish hypotheses to answer the practical objective.
4. Select the appropriate statistical test.
5. Define the alpha (α) risk.
6. Define the beta (β) risk.
7. Establish delta (δ).
8. Determine the sample size (n).
9. Collect the data.
10. Conduct the statistical tests.
11. Develop statistical conclusions.
12. Determine the practical conclusions.
In the following pages, each step will be described, including examples and
information about:
Significance level
Power
Type I and Type II errors
Sample size
560
Hypothesis Testing Steps 1 and 2
561
Hypothesis Testing Step 3
Alternate Hypothesis:
Ha: At least one mean is different
562
Hypothesis Testing Step 4
563
Hypothesis Testing Roadmap
Six Sigma Black Belt | Analyze | Hypothesis Testing | Hypothesis Testing Step 4
Example: Hypothesis Testing Roadmap
564
Hypothesis Testing Steps 5 and 6
565
Hypothesis Testing Step 7
Example
The return mail volume reduction of 10% has been determined to be a practical
significance.
An error rate difference of 7% has been determined to be of practical
significance.
566
Hypothesis Testing Step 8
Example
Historically, within the XYZ Company, the average cost of a transaction is $.40 with a
standard deviation of $.25. The goal of the project is to reduce the average cost to
$.30. Assuming the alpha risk of 5% and a beta risk of 10%, how many samples
would be needed?
Compute δ/σ = (.40-.30)/.25 = .4.
Look in the Two Sample Test Table for an alpha risk of 5% and a beta risk of
10%.
The sample size is 133.
567
Hypothesis Testing Step 8 cont.
Example
Historical information suggests that within mortgage loan documentation processing,
the standard deviation of the exceptions per day is 10. What is the minimum sample
size required at a 95% confidence level (Z=1.96) to confirm a significant shift of the
mean greater than 2 exceptions per day?
Compute n to find that 97 samples are
needed.
User Tips
Increasing the sample size can reduce both the alpha and beta risk.
As the number of samples taken increases, the theoretical standard deviation of
the mean estimate decreases so we can reliably detect smaller and smaller
differences.
568
Hypothesis Testing Steps 9 - 10
569
Hypothesis Testing Step 11
Example
Ho: μ1= μ2 = μ3
Ha: At least one mean is different
With α = 0.05 and a computed p-value of 0.00, there is a significant difference
between mail endorsement classifications and return mail volume. Therefore, we
reject the null hypothesis.
Ho: ρ1 = ρ2 = ρ3
Ha: At least one ρi is different
With α = 0.05 and a computed p-value of 0.12, there is not a significant
difference between shift and account processing errors. Therefore, we fail to
reject the null hypothesis.
Statistical conclusions can be made by comparing the test statistic (calculated
value) to a critical value in a statistical table OR by using a statistical software
program to calculate the p-value:
The null hypothesis will be rejected if the absolute value of the test statistic is
greater than the critical value. For example:
Reject Ho if | tcalc | > tcritical α/2, n-2
Do not reject Ho if | tcalc | < tcritical α/2, n-2
If the test statistic (calculated value) = critical value, then it is often considered to
be a judgment call.
Example
Ho: µ = μ0
Ha: µ ≠ μ0
Account processing is not on target since tcalc > tcritical (4.74 > 2.262) therefore,
reject the null hypothesis.
Ho: µ1 = μ2
Ha: µ1 < μ2
Since tcalc < tcritical, fail to reject the null hypothesis: -0.37 > -2.306, we cannot
reject the null hypothesis.
570
Hypothesis Testing Step 12
Example
Statistically the first quarter has the worst error rate and an increased missed
account rate of 9%.
Through analysis, it has been determined that distribution center G reflects a
decreased productivity rate compared to the other distribution centers. In addition
to low productivity, there is an increase in employee turnover of 20% for second
shift employees.
571
Concepts of Hypothesis Testing Exercise
For each of the following statements, click either the True or False box:
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572
Point and Interval Estimation
As discussed in the Measure lesson, a population is the entire set (totality) of units,
quantity of material or observations under consideration. A population may be real and
finite, real and infinite or completely hypothetical. Characteristics describing a
population mean are called parameters. An example of a population is all registered
voters in the United States.
µ = Population Mean (Note: the mean of a population is never actually known.)
σ 2 = Population variance
N = Number of values (population)
A sample is a group of objects actually measured in a statistical study. It is a subset of
the population of interest. Statistics based on samples are used as estimators of the
equivalent population parameters. An example of a sample is a survey of 100 voters.
X = Sample Mean
s2 = Sample variance
n = Number of values (sample)
On the following page, click Continue to see an example of how sample statistics are
used to make inferences about population parameters.
573
Inferences about Population Parameters
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574
Bias
Bias is a difference between the sample and the population, caused by the sampling
method. There is uncertainty about the population anytime you sample; hence the
estimator is called unbiased if the average of all possible values is equal to the
parameter being estimated. For example, the following equation shows the bias that
changes a population variance to a sample variance:
Popul Sample
ation variance
varia
nce
575
Unbiased Estimator
The sample mean is an unbiased estimator for the population mean as a result of the
Central Limit Theorem discussed earlier in the Measure Lesson of this course. The
estimator is unbiased if the expected value of the estimator equals the population
parameter. For example, the mean is an unbiased estimate because E(X) = μ. When a
known (finite) population is sampled many times, the calculated sample averages can
be different even though the population is stable. Click each sample mean to see to an
example:
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576
Estimating Population Parameters
The differences in sample averages are a result of the nature of random sampling.
Given that these differences exist, the key is to estimate the true population parameter
with a known degree of certainty. Click each term below to learn more.
Confidence Intervals
According to ASQ's Glossary and Tables for Statistical Quality Control, "a confidence
interval is the estimate of the interval between two statistics that contains the true
value of the parameter with some probability. This probability is called the confidence
level of the estimate. Confidence intervals for the mean are independent of the
population distribution if the sample size is large. Confidence levels typically used are
90%, 95% and 99%. As n increases, the confidence intervals get tighter as the
endpoints converge on the true parameter. The interval either contains the parameter or
it does not."
If it does, the probability that the population parameter is in the interval is called
the confidence coefficient or confidence level = 1 – alpha. For example, a 95%
confidence interval would have a 5% alpha risk.
If it does not, the parameter would be considered to be rejected. The alpha risk =
1 – confidence interval and is the probability that the population parameter is
not in the interval.
Standard Error
According to the ASQ Glossary, standard error, abbreviated Se, is the standard
deviation of a sample statistic or estimator indicating the amount of error that will
occur when a sample mean is used to estimate the mean of a population. When dealing
with sample statistics, we either refer to standard deviation of the sample statistic or
to the standard error of the mean as shown by:
577
Estimating Population Parameters
Prediction Interval
The prediction interval is an interval based on the predicted value that is likely to
contain the values of future observations. The prediction interval will be wider than
the confidence interval because it contains bounds on individual observations rather
than a bound on the mean of a group of observations.
Where:
xp = value of the predictor variable
yp = calculated response variable using the regression equation
Se and Sxx have been defined previously
df = n - 2
Tolerance Interval
According to Six Sigma for the Next Millennium: A CSSBB Guidebook by Pries, a
tolerance interval “is the stated coverage for a fixed proportion of the population
with a declared confidence. There are both one-sided and two-sided tolerance
intervals. The endpoints of a tolerance interval are generally referred to as tolerance
limits."
An application of tolerance intervals to manufacturing involves comparing
specification limits designated by the client with tolerance limits that cover a specified
proportion of the population.
578
Confidence Interval Conditions
Click each condition below to see the corresponding confidence interval equation.
Population Variance
Confidence interval equation:
579
Confidence Interval Large Sample
Calculate the confidence interval for a large sample (n ≥ 30) when σ is unknown and
replaced by s, an estimator of σ.
Example
Problem and given values:
An estimate is needed for the average weight for a population of 1000 fastening snaps
received from a supplier. Rather than measuring all 1000 fastening snaps, the shift
manager decides to randomly select a sample of 50 for measurement. The average
weight of the sample is determined to be 0.34 ounces with a standard deviation of
0.004. Calculate the confidence interval for the mean with α = 0.10.
580
Confidence Interval Large Sample cont.
Calculation
Using the given information, the formulas for the endpoints of the confidence interval
are:
Therefore, we are 90% confident that the population mean is between 0.33907 and
0.34093.
581
Confidence Interval Small Sample
Calculate the confidence interval for a small sample (n ≤ 30) for a mean (μ) of a
population.
Example
Problem and Given Values
An auto parts manufacturer recently replaced a new machine that produces a part.
Historically, under a normal processing environment the diameter of this part is 1.50.
Now that a new machine is producing the part, the general manager wants to know if
the diameter has changed. A random sample of 20 parts reflects an average diameter
of 1.60 with a standard deviation of 0.009. Assume the diameters are normally
distributed and calculate a 95% confidence interval.
582
Confidence Interval Small Sample cont.
Calculation
Roll over Page Resources at the bottom of the screen and click T Distribution Table
to determine the critical value. With df = 19, looking at t.025 the critical value is 2.093.
Using the given information, the formulas for the endpoints of the confidence interval
are:
The 95% confidence interval is (1.5958, 1.6042). The data indicate that we can be
95% confident that the mean of the population of diameters is between 1.5958 and
1.6042. Since 1.50 is not in the interval, we are 95% confident that the mean has
changed.
583
Confidence Interval for Standard Deviation
584
Confidence Interval for Standard Deviation cont.
Example
A new process has been established in the manufacturing of ink for print cartridges.
The manufacturer is interested in determining if the amount of variability in the
brilliance of the color has changed. Historically, the standard deviation has been 2.75.
A random sample of 25 ink receptacles was collected, and the standard deviation was
calculated to be 2.79. Assume the diameters are normally distributed and calculate a
90% confidence interval. What is your conclusion?
s = 2.75
n = 25
Roll over Page Resources and click Chi-square Distribution Table to determine the
critical value, where:
df = 24
2
χ .05 and χ2.95
The calculation is on the next page.
585
Confidence Interval for Standard Deviation cont.
Calculation
Degrees freedom (df) = 24
α / 2 = .05 and 1 – α / 2 = .95, (36.415) and (13.848)
Using the given information and formula, the calculated confidence intervals are:
Lower confidence limit = 2.233
Upper confidence limit = 3.620
The 90% confidence interval is (2.233, 3.620). The data indicate that we can be 90%
confident that the standard deviation of the population of ink receptacles is between
2.233 and 3.620. Since the historical standard deviation (2.75) is within the interval,
we conclude with 90% confidence that the standard deviation has not changed.
586
Tolerance Intervals
Example
A sample of n = 20 from a stable process produced the following results:
Roll over Page Resources at the bottom of the screen and click Tolerance Interval
Factors to determine the value of K.
We can estimate that the interval from 11.024 to 18.977 will contain 99% of the
population with a confidence of 95%.
587
Point and Interval Estimation Distinctions
Confidence, tolerance, and prediction intervals are all interrelated, yet each is
distinct as to point and interval estimations.
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588
Point and Interval Estimation Exercise
Below are five statements about point and interval estimation. Drag the three correct
statements on the left to the appropriate boxes on the right. Feedback will be given for
incorrect answers.
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589
Tests for Means, Variances, and Proportions
590
Summary Chart
Six Sigma Black Belt | Analyze | Hypothesis Testing | Tests for Means, Variances, and Proportions
Example: Summary Chart
591
Hypothesis Tests for Means
Ho : µ A = µB Ha: µA≠ µB
Ho : µ A = Target or Historic Mean Ha : µ A ≠ Target or Historic Mean
Ho : µ A = µB = µC Ha : At least one µ is different
592
Tests for Means Introduction
The statistical tests for means that a Black Belt would commonly use are:
One-sample Z-test: for population mean
Two-sample Z-test: for population mean
One-sample T-test: single mean (one sample versus historic mean or target value)
Two-sample T-test : multiple means (sample from each of the two categories)
ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) (sample from three or more categories)
An example of the One-sample Z-test for population mean, Two-sample Z-test for
population mean, One-sample T-test, and the Two-sample T-test will be shown in
this sub-topic. One-way ANOVA and Two-way ANOVA will be discussed later under
the specific sub-topic of ANOVA.
593
One-Sample Z-Test for Population Mean Introduction
The One-sample Z-test for population mean is used when a large sample (n ≥ 30) is
taken from a population and we want to compare the mean of the population to some
claimed value. This test assumes the population standard deviation is known or can be
reasonably estimated by the sample standard deviation and uses the Z distribution.
Click the information below to learn more.
Hypotheses
Null hypothesis
Ho: μ = μ0
where μ0 is the claim value compared to the sample.
Alternative hypothesis may take one of these forms:
Ha: μ ≠ μ0
Ha: μ < μ0
Ha: μ > μ0
Test Statistic
Where:
x is the sample mean.
σ can be estimated by s for the sample.
n is the sample size.
594
One-Sample Z-Test Example Steps 1 and 2
Example
A weight loss company is introducing a new marketing campaign and wishes to
include in the advertisement that the average weight loss of a participant is 5 pounds
per month. An associate from the marketing department randomly chooses 75
participant files and finds the sample has an average weight loss of 4.4 pounds per
month. Suppose the standard deviation of the population is 0.2. Is the claim of 5
pounds lost per month valid? The marketing department wants a 95% confidence level
in the claim.
Step 1: Establish the hypotheses.
Ho: μ = 5.0
Ha: μ < 5.0 (left-tail test)
Step 2: Calculate the test statistic.
595
One-Sample Z-Test Steps 3 and 4
596
Two-Sample Z-Test for Population Mean
The Two-sample Z-test for population mean is used after taking 2 large samples (n ≥
30) from 2 different populations in order to compare them. This test uses the Z-table
and assumes knowing the population standard deviation, or estimated by using the
sample standard deviation. Click the information below to learn more.
Hypotheses
Null hypothesis:
Ho: μ1= μ2
Alternative hypothesis may take one of these forms:
Ha: μ1 ≠ μ2
Ha: μ1 < μ2
Ha: μ1 > μ2
Test Statistic
Where:
x1 and x2 are the sample means.
s1 and s2 are the sample standard deviations.
n1 and n2 are the sample sizes.
Note: The steps in completing a Two-sample Z-test are the same as the One-sample
Z-test, but with the appropriate calculation for the test statistic.
597
One-Sample T-test Introduction
The One-sample T-test is used when a small sample (n < 30) is taken from a
population and you want to compare the mean of the population to some claimed
value. This test assumes the population standard deviation is unknown and uses the t
distribution. Click the information below to learn more.
Hypotheses
Null hypothesis
Ho: μ = μ0
Where:
μ0 is the claim value compared to the sample.
Alternative hypothesis (may take one of these forms)
Ha: μ ≠ μ0
Ha: μ < μ0
Ha: μ > μ0
Test Statistic
Where:
x is the sample mean.
s is the sample standard deviation.
n is the sample size.
598
One-Sample T-test Example Steps 1 and 2
Example
The Loan Reconciliation Department is reviewing the outstanding general ledger
items process to determine if it is on target. The mean balance on an outstanding
general ledger item is $5,500 (target value). A sample of 10 outstanding general ledger
items was reviewed, reflecting a mean item balance of $5,506 with a standard
deviation of $4. Is the process on target? The significance level α = 0.05.
Step 1: Establish the hypotheses.
Ho: µ = 5,500
Ha: µ ≠ 5,500
Step 2: Calculate the test statistic.
599
One-Sample T-test Steps 3 and 4
600
Two-Sample T-test Introduction
The Two-sample T-test is used when two small samples (n < 30) are taken from two
different populations and compared. There are two forms of this test: assumption of
equal variances and assumption of unequal variances. Click the information below to
learn more.
Hypotheses
For both assumptions of equal and unequal variances the hypotheses are:
Null hypothesis
Ho: µ1 = µ2
The Alternate hypothesis may take one of the following forms:
Ha: µ1 ≠ µ2
Ha: µ1 < µ2
Ha: µ1 > µ2
Test Statistic
Assumption of equal variances
Where:
x1 and x2 are the sample means.
s1 and s2 are the sample standard deviations.
n1 and n2 are the sample sizes.
601
Two-Sample T-test Introduction
Degrees of Freedom
Assumption of equal variances
(n1 + n2) - 2
Assumption of unequal variances
602
Two-Sample T-test Example
Example
Two call centers (A and B) are being tested to see if customer wait time is statistically
the same. A sample of five wait times was taken from both call centers. The historic
mean is 7.5 seconds. Are the call centers the same? Assume α = 0.05.
603
Two-Sample T-test Steps 1 and 2
604
Two-Sample T-test Steps 3 and 4
605
Hypothesis Tests for Variances
Ho: σ 2 = σ2 Ha: σ 2 ≠ σ2
After Before After Before
Ha: σ 2 > σ2
After Before
Ha: σ 2 < σ2
After Before
606
Tests for Variances Introduction
An example of the F-test Statistic will be shown in this sub-topic of the course.
Levene's Test Statistic will be discussed along with an example in the
non-parametric tests sub-topic of this lesson.
When comparing two populations' means using continuous data, you must first decide
if a statistical difference exists in the variances (homogeneity of variance test). The
normality of the data test is important because you need to know the type of
distribution to determine the type of variance test to use.
607
F-test Statistic Step 1
Example
Two check processing centers are being evaluated to see if there is a difference in
processing time. We want to know if the processing time variability is significantly
different at the two centers. Sample sizes from Center 1 and Center 2 were 10 and 9
respectively and have sample variances of S12 = 6.89 and S22 = 4.96. Given α = 0.05,
are the population variances different at a 95% confidence level?
Step 1: Establish the hypotheses.
Ho: σ21 = σ22
Ha: σ21 ≠ σ22
608
F-test Statistic Steps 2 - 4
Look in the table and read across the table to find ν1 = 8 degrees of freedom.
Read down the table to find ν2 = 9 degrees of freedom. At the interaction of the
column and row, read the value 3.23, the left (upper) critical value given by:
609
Hypothesis Tests for Proportions
Ho: pMonday = pTuesday = pWednesday = pThursday = pFriday Ha: At least one is different
Ho: pa = Target Ha: pa ≠ Target
Ho: pa = pb Ha: pa ≠ pb
Ha: pa > pb
Ha: pa < pb
Note: During the discussion of tests for proportions, the target will also be referred to
as "claim," "hypothesized p," and "historical value."
610
Tests for Proportions Introduction
The statistical tests for proportion that a Black Belt would commonly use are:
One-proportion
Two-proportion
Chi-square
Examples of the One-proportion and Two-proportion tests and the steps to calculate
them will be shown in this sub-topic. The Chi-square test will be covered in the
contingency tables and goodness-of-fit Test sub-topics later in the course.
611
One-Proportion Test Introduction
The One-proportion test is used when taking a sample from a population and the
number of units of interest is counted in the sample in order to compare the
population’s mean to some claim. Click the information below to learn more.
Use When
np and n (1-p) are > 5, where n is the sample size and p is the proportion.
This assumption is necessary for making a normal approximation to the binomial
distribution where Z tables can be used.
For example, use the One-proportion test to check if there is a statistical difference
between:
Current fraction defective of a product to the historical fraction defective
Current percent of "yes" votes on a proposition to the percent in a prior election
Hypotheses
Null hypothesis
Ho: p = po
Where po is the claim value for comparing the sample.
Alternate hypothesis may take one of these forms:
Ha: p ≠ po
Ha: p < po
Ha: p > po
Test Statistic
612
One-Proportion Test Example Step 1
Example
Product accuracy must be on target at 0.90, so use the one-proportion test to determine
if the current process is on target. A sample n of 500 products was taken and 400 were
accurate. Assume α = 0.05.
Step 1: Establish the hypotheses.
Ho: p = Target
Ha: p < Target
613
One-Proportion Test Step 2
614
One-Proportion Test Steps 3 and 4
615
Two-Proportion Test Introduction
Use When
np and n (1-p) are > 5 where n is the sample size and p is the proportion.
This assumption is necessary for making a normal approximation to the binomial
distribution where Z tables can be used.
For example, use the Two-proportion test to check if there is a statistical difference
between:
Proportion defective before and after a process improvement
Percent accuracy of form completion between 2 different office locations
Hypotheses
Null hypothesis
Ho: p1= p2
Where p1 and p2 are the proportions in the populations being compared.
Alternative hypothesis may take one of these forms:
Ha: p1 ≠ p2
Ha: p1 < p2
Ha: p1 > p2
616
Two-Proportion Test Introduction
Test Statistic
p = pooled proportion
617
Two-Proportion Test Example Step 1
Example
Product accuracy must improve towards the target of 0.90. Process improvements
have been implemented, and the project manager wants to determine if these
improvements have increased accuracy. In the original sample (n) of 500, 400 were
accurate. Another sample was taken after the improvements were implemented and
220 out of 250 were deemed accurate.
Step 1: Establish the hypotheses.
Ho: p1 = p2
Ha: p1 < p2
618
Two-Proportion Test Step 2
619
Two-Proportion Test Steps 3 and 4
620
Paired-Comparison Tests Introduction
621
Paired-Comparison Tests Example
In this paired t-test for two population means example, each paired sample consists
of a member of one population and that member’s corresponding member in the other
population.
Example
A candy company will be using a new chocolate recipe, and the plant manager
suspects that the cycle time to produce chocolates will be impacted. She is claiming
that there will be a need for an increase in staff. Cycle time for a sample size of 10
chocolates was tracked for each type of recipe on a machine that produces the
chocolates made from both recipes. Does the data indicate that the new chocolate
recipe increases cycle time when α = 0.05? Assume that the differences are normally
distributed.
Sample # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 μ
Old recipe (time in secs.) 7 6 8 9 5 5 5 8 9 7 6.9
New recipe (time in secs.) 7 6 7 8 5 5 6 8 7 7 6.6
Difference, d 0 0 1 1 0 0 -1 0 2 0 0.3
622
Paired-Comparison Tests Steps 1 and 2
623
Paired-Comparison Tests Steps 3 and 4
624
Equation Exercise
For each equation, definition, or hypothesis listed on the right, drag the corresponding
answer to the appropriate box on the left.
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625
Goodness-of-Fit Test
In the goodness-of-fit tests, one is comparing and observed (O) frequency distribution
to an expected (E) frequency distribution.
The relationship is statistically described by a hypothesis test:
Ho: Random variable is distributed as a specific distribution with given
parameters.
Ha: Random variable does not have the specific distribution with given
parameters.
The formula for calculating the chi-square test statistic for this one-tail test is:
A random sample of size n is taken from the population. The degrees of freedom for
this test is k – m – 1, where:
k = number of intervals or cells from the sample to form a frequency distribution
m = number of parameters estimated from the sample data
626
Goodness-of-Fit Test Step 1
Example
Management believes that the time between machine breakdowns follows the
exponential distribution. We track a bank of identical machines for a number of hours
between breakdowns. Test the hypothesis that the distribution is exponential using a
95% (α = 0.05) level of confidence.
Step 1: Establish the hypotheses.
Ho: Distribution is exponential.
Ha: Distribution is not exponential.
627
Goodness-of-Fit Test Steps 2 and 3
628
Goodness-of-Fit Test Step 4
The degrees of freedom is computed as the number of intervals minus the number of
parameters estimated (which is 1, as the mean was estimated from the sample), minus
1:
df = 7 – 1 – 1 = 5
629
Goodness-of-Fit Test Steps 5 and 6
630
ANOVA Introduction
Similarities to Regression
ANOVA is similar to regression in that it is used to investigate and model the
relationship between a response variable and one or more independent variables.
However, analysis of variance differs from regression in two ways:
The independent variables are qualitative (categorical).
No assumption is made about the nature of the relationship (i.e. the model does
not include coefficients for variables).
631
ANOVA Fundamental Terminology
In the ANOVA sub-topic, One-way and Two-way ANOVA will be discussed along
with a One-way ANOVA example. To learn more, click the terms below used in the
data table for the calculation of ANOVA:
SSFactor
Measures the variation of each group mean to the overall mean across all groups.
SSError
Measures the variation of each observation within each factor level to the mean of the
level.
F-test statistic
The ratio of the variance between treatments to the variance within treatments =
MS/MSE. If F is near 1, then the treatment means are no different (p-value is large).
P-value
According to Montgomery in Introduction to Statistical Quality Control, "the p–value
is the smallest level of significance that would lead to rejection of the null hypothesis
(Ho)."
Typically, if α = 0.05 and the p-value ≤ 0.05, then reject the null hypothesis and
conclude that there is a significant difference.
Typically, if α = 0.05 and the p-value > 0.05, then fail to reject the null hypothesis
and conclude that there is not a significant difference.
632
One-Way ANOVA Fundamentals
ANOVA Terms
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633
One-Way ANOVA Equations
Roll over each description of the One-way ANOVA to see the equation.
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634
One-Way ANOVA Assumptions and Example
One-way ANOVA is used to determine whether data from three or more populations
formed by treatment options from a single factor designed experiment indicate the
population means are different.
There are three basic underlying assumptions in using One-way ANOVA:
All samples are random samples from their respective populations and are
independent.
Distributions of outputs for all treatment levels follow the normal distribution.
Equal or homogeneity of variances.
Example
Three call centers (A, B, and C) are being tested to see if customer wait time is
statistically the same. A sample of five wait times was taken from each call center. Is
there a difference in any of the three call centers? Assume α = 0.05.
635
One-Way ANOVA Example Steps 1 and 2
636
One-Way ANOVA Example Step 2 SS Factor
The sum of squares is calculated by subtracting the average of each call center (group)
from the overall average, squaring the result, and adding up the results and multiplying
by the number of samples per call center (group):
637
One-Way ANOVA Example Step 2 SS Error
The error of the sum of squares is calculated by summing the squared differences
between each individual and its group mean and then adding the totals to get the sum
of squares for the error term:
638
One-Way ANOVA Example Step 2 SS Total
The total sum of squares is calculated by summing the squared difference of each
individual value as compared to the overall average of the data:
639
One-Way ANOVA Example Step 2 Table
640
One-Way ANOVA Example Steps 3 and 4
641
Two-Way ANOVA Introduction
Assumptions
The populations from which the samples were obtained must be normally
distributed.
The samples must be independent.
The variances of the populations must be equal.
The groups must have the same sample size.
Use When
determining if two or more independent variables change the dependent variable.
determining if interactions between the factors change the dependent variable.
Advantages
For conducting a two-way ANOVA when it is appropriate rather than resorting to two
separate one-way ANOVA’s:
Interactions can be investigated.
Resources can be used more efficiently.
Error variation is reduced by including a second factor, and estimating the
interaction.
Two-factor Design
Used in the analysis of two-factor design yielding three pieces of information:
Main effects of independent factor A on the dependent variable.
Main effects of independent factor B on the dependent variable.
Interaction between factor A and B determines if a joint influence of the two
independent variables on the dependent variable exists.
642
Two-Way ANOVA Terminology
The following are terms used in the Two-way ANOVA models taken from the ASQ
Glossary and Tables for Statistical Quality Control, Fourth Edition, ASQ Statistics
Division. Click each term below to learn more.
Block
A collection of experimental units more homogeneous than the full set of experimental
units. Blocks are usually selected to allow for special causes, in addition to those
introduced as factors to be studied. These special causes may be avoidable within
blocks, thus providing a more homogeneous experimental subspace.
Blocking
The method of including blocks in an experiment in order to broaden the applicability
of the conclusions or to minimize the impact of selected assignable causes. The
randomization of the experiment is restricted and occurs within blocks.
Factor
A predictor variable that is varied with the intent of assessing its effect on a response
variable.
Factor Levels
A potential setting, value, or assignment of a factor or the value of the predictor
variable.
Predictor Variable
A variable that can contribute to the explanation of the outcome of an experiment.
Replicate
A single repetition of the experiment.
Treatment
The specific setting of factor levels for an experimental unit.
643
Two-Way ANOVA Models
Many of the key concepts for two-way ANOVA are either identical or similar to those
of one-way ANOVA, but differ in the details of the ANOVA table. Calculations for the
two-way ANOVA table are almost always completed using a statistical software
program, but for the purpose of this course, only data tables and equations will be
shown. Click the terms below to learn more about the fixed effects model, single
replicate and the Fixed effects model with replication.
644
Two-Way ANOVA Models
Replication Overview
If an interaction exists, each treatment combination experiment must be replicated
more than once to get an estimate of the interaction effect as well as the error,
therefore:
a = number of levels for factor A
b = number of levels for factor B
n = number of replicates
k = the kth replicate in row a, column b
y111 = the first replicate in row 1, column 1
y112 = the second replicate in row 1, column 1
y11n = the nth replicate in row 1, column 1
yabn = the nth replicate in row a, column b
645
Two-Way ANOVA Models
Replication Equations
Total Sum of Squares
646
ANOVA Exercise
Below are five statements about ANOVA. Drag the three correct statements on the left
to the boxes on the right. Feedback will be given for incorrect answers.
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647
Contingency Tables
Contingency tables are used to analyze data via a two-way classification involving
two factors with data that is usually attribute in nature such as frequency or counts.
This tool is used to test whether two sources of variation are statistically independent.
The test statistic used is the Chi-square statistic (χ2). When establishing hypotheses
using contingency tables be sure to remember that the goal is not looking for
differences, but testing dependency.
Example
A manager wants to determine if the distribution of defect type varies by the
non-overlapping shift (1st, 2nd, or 3rd) in which the product is produced. Is there a
relationship between shift and defect type at α = 0.05?
648
Contingency Tables Steps 1 and 2
649
Contingency Tables Step 2 Calculation of Observed
650
Contingency Tables Step 2 Calculation of Expected
Expected Values
The expected value is calculated by using the probability from the total column for
each row in the observed frequencies table multiplied by the shift column total. For
example, the 1st shift column total is 49 multiplied by .264 (probability from total
column) = 12.89.
1st 2nd 3rd Probability
from Total
Column
Label 12.89 15.52 10.52 .264
placement
defect
Wrapper 11.27 13.57 9.20 .230
thickness
defect
Pigment 24.84 29.91 20.28 .507
defect
651
Contingency Tables Step 2 Calc. Obs. and Exp. cont
652
Contingency Tables Steps 3 and 4
653
Contingency Tables Exercise
Below are five statements about contingency tables. Drag the three correct statements
on the left to the boxes on the right. Feedback will be given for incorrect answers.
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654
Non-parametric Tests
The term parametric implies that an underlying distribution is assumed for the
population, while non-parametric makes no assumptions regarding the population
distribution; hence often called “distribution-free” tests. Click the information below
to learn more about non-parametric tests.
655
Non-parametric Statistical Tests
When data are non-normal, the following statistical tests are commonly used to
analyze data. Roll over the test name to learn more about each non-parametric
statistical test.
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656
Non-parametric Hypothesis Testing
Road Map
The Hypothesis Testing Road Map was discussed earlier in this topic of the course
and includes non-parametric tests. Remember, the roadmap is a very important tool
that you will use with each hypothesis test.
Roll over Page Resources at the bottom of the screen and click Hypothesis Testing
Road Map to help discern which statistical tests are applicable for the data you are
testing.
657
Hypothesis Testing Roadmap
Six Sigma Black Belt | Analyze | Hypothesis Testing | Non-parametric Hypothesis Testing
Example: Hypothesis Testing Roadmap
658
Moods Median Test Statistic
The Mood's Median Test is used to determine whether there is sufficient evidence to
conclude that samples are drawn from populations with different medians. The test
statistic used is the chi-square test statistic:
A sample of a Mood's Median Test follows, along with the steps to perform it:
Example
A health food company has launched a new energy shake that has been in production
for 30 days. This shake is produced at three of the companies processing centers, and a
sample size of at least 10 has been collected. The volume in ounces is measured for
each container. Is the median volume per container the same for all three processing
centers at a 95% significance level?
659
Moods Median Test Step 1
Data Table
Cente Cente Cente Step 1: Establish
rA rB rC the hypotheses.
16.2 16 15.8
Ha: At least one of
16 15.8 15.9
the populations has
16 15.8 16.5 a different median.
16.1 15.5 16
15.9 16.5 16
15.8 16.4 16
16.2 16.3 16.2
16.1 15.7 16.1
16.3 16.1 15.9
15.7 16.3 16.4
16 16.3
16.2
n= n= n=
11 10 12
660
Moods Median Test Step 2 Observed
Observed Values
Number Above Number Below
Overall Median Overall Median
Center A 6.5 4.5
Center B 5.5 4.5
Center C 7.5 4.5
661
Moods Median Test Step 2 Expected
Expected Values
Number Above Overall Number Below Overall
Median Median
Center A 5.5 5.5
Center B 5 5
Center C 6 6
662
Moods Median Test Step 2 Calc. Obs. and Exp.
663
Moods Median Test Steps 3 and 4
664
Levenes Test
Levene's Test
Used to compare two or more variances, Levene's Test is appropriate for continuous
data that may not be normally distributed, testing for homogeneity of variances across
a set of k samples. The Levene's test statistic shown in various forms is:
Rollover Page Resources and click Levene's Test Procedure to see a sample test,
along with the steps to conduct it. Click Levene's Test Data to see the sample data.
665
Kruskal-Wallis Test Statistic
A sample Kruskal-Wallis Test follows, along with the steps to perform it:
Example
A random sample of the population of customer satisfaction scores from three
different bank branches was collected. With α = 0.05 and assuming the populations
have the same shape, does the data support the statement that not all the medians are
equal?
666
Kruskal-Wallis Test Step 1
Data Table
Branch Branch Branch Step 1: Establish
A B C the hypotheses.
99 97 95
92 99 94
95 99 99
Ha: At least one is
98 98 99
different (Not all
98 98 98 populations have
97 97 97 the same median.
96 99 96
667
Kruskal-Wallis Test Step 2 Calculation
668
Kruskal-Wallis Test Step 2 Calculation cont.
669
Kruskal-Wallis Test Steps 3 and 4
670
Mann-Whitney U Test Statistic
For a two-tail test, reject if either of the observed values is less than or equal to
the tabulated critical value:
M is the test statistic and is the sum of the ranks of the smaller sample. A sample
Mann-Whitney U Test follows, along with the steps to conduct it.
Example
A personal fitness center is running a promotion to attract new members. A daily
sample of new membership enrollments is recorded for each shift and is shown in a
data table. At a significance level of 0.05 and confirming the populations have the
same shape, do the data support the hypothesis that morning shift associates sell more
fitness memberships?
671
Mann-Whitney U Test Step 1
Data Table
Morning Staff Evening Staff Step 1: Establish the
10 13 hypotheses.
13 5
9 4
3 3
7 12
5 11
12 9
4
672
Mann-Whitney U Test Step 2 Calculation
673
Mann-Whitney U Test Step 2 Calculation cont.
674
Mann-Whitney U Test Steps 3 and 4
Since the calculated value of the test statistic is 59.5, we fail to reject the null
hypothesis; 59.5 < 73:
The conclusion is that the data do not support the hypothesis that the morning shift
associates sell more fitness memberships.
675
Non-parametric Tests Assessment Questions
For each of the following statements, click the box for the corresponding
non-parametric test.
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676
Lesson Summary
The primary focus of the Analyze phase of the Six Sigma methodology is to closely
examine the output (Y), so that you may understand the variables or inputs (Xs) and
their effects controlling Y. The Black Belt's responsibility includes gathering the Xs
identified in the Measure phase and performing needed analysis to narrow the Xs from
possible to probable prior to the launch of the Improve phase.
The analysis is conducted through the use of tools such as:
Exploratory data analysis
Graphical data analysis through multi-vari studies
Correlation and regression models
Hypothesis testing
Statistical and practical significance
Significance level and power
Sample size calculation
Point and interval estimation
Tests for means, variances, and proportions
Paired-comparison tests
Goodness-of-fit tests
ANOVA
Contingency tables
Non-parametric tests
The use of the activities and tools during the Analyze phase of the Six Sigma
methodology discovers the root causes by identifying significant Xs impacting process
performance. The Black Belt and the team are now ready to move forward in the
project generating, selecting, testing and implementing solutions to address the root
causes.
677
Lesson Bibliography
Bibliography
American Society for Quality. Six Sigma Green Belt Certification Preparation Course,
Version 1 (web-based course). Milwaukee, WI, 2006.
ASQ Statistics Division. Kittlitz, Rudy, editor. Glossary and Tables for Statistical
Quality Control. 4th ed. Milwaukee, WI: ASQ Quality Press, 2005.
Benbow, Donald W. and T.M. Kubiak. The Certified Six Sigma Black Belt Handbook.
Milwaukee, WI: ASQ Quality Press, 2005.
Breyfogle, Forrest W. III . Implementing Six Sigma: Smarter Solutions® Using
Statistical Methods. 2nd ed. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2003.
Dovich, Robert A. Quality Engineering Statistics. Milwaukee, WI: ASQ Quality Press,
1992.
Gibbons, Jean Dickinson. Nonparametric Statistics: An Introduction. New York: Sage
Publications, 1993.
Montgomery, Douglas C. Introduction to Statistical Quality Control. 5th ed. Hoboken,
NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2005.
Pries, Kim H.Six Sigma for the Next Millennium: A CSSBB Guidebook. Milwaukee,
WI: ASQ Quality Press, 2006.
Pyzdek, Thomas. The Six Sigma Handbook: A Complete Guide for Green Belts, Black
Belts, and Managers at All Levels, 2nded. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2003.
Six Sigma Academy. The Black Belt Memory JoggerTM: A Pocket Guide for Six Sigma
Success. Salem, NH: Goal/QPC, 2002.
Tague, Nancy R.The Quality Toolbox. 2nd ed. Milwaukee, WI: ASQ Quality Press,
2005.
Windsor, Samuel E. Transactional Six Sigma for Green Belts. Milwaukee, WI: ASQ
Quality Press, 2006.
678
Six Sigma Black Belt
Improve
Lesson Introduction
The Improve phase provides the tools and methods for determining and verifying the
sources of variation (input variables - x). Well-designed experiments include those
input variables (x) identified as critical to the process. In these experiments, input
variables demonstrate the Y = f(x) relationship, where Y is a dependent variable that is
a function of x. Using a design of experiments (DOE) approach produces very useful
information on the relationships between factors so that experimenters may quickly
move to improve the process. To better understand this concept, the ASQ Body of
Knowledge provides the following topics:
Design of experiments (DOE)
Define independent and dependent variables, factors and levels, response,
treatment, error and replication.
Describe and apply the basic elements of experiment planning and organizing,
including determining the experiment objective, selecting factors, responses, and
measurement methods and choosing the appropriate design.
Define and apply the principles of power and sample size, balance, replication,
order, efficiency, randomization and blocking, interaction and confounding.
Construct experiments such as completely randomized, randomized block and
Latin square designs, and apply computational and graphical methods to analyze
and evaluate the significance of results.
Construct these experiments and apply computational and graphical methods to
analyze and evaluate the significance of results.
Construct these experiments (including Taguchi designs) and apply
computational and graphical methods to analyze and evaluate the significance of
results; understand the limitations of fractional factorials caused by confounding.
Apply Taguchi robustness concepts and techniques such as signal-to-noise ratio,
controllable and noise factors, and robustness to external sources of variability.
Construct these experiments and apply computational and graphical methods to
analyze and evaluate the significance of results.
Response surface methodology
Construct these experiments and apply computational and graphical methods to
analyze the significance of results.
Construct experiments such as central composite design (CCD), Box-Behnken,
etc., and apply computational and graphical methods to analyze the significance
of results.
Evolutionary operations (EVOP)
Understand the application and strategy of EVOP.
680
Lesson Overview
The tools and objectives of the Improve phase are illustrated below.
681
Six Sigma Black Belt
Improve
Design of Experiments
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Improve topic, all learners will be able to:
define independent and dependent variables, factors and levels, response,
treatment, error and replication.
describe and apply the basic elements of experiment planning and organizing
including determining the experiment objective, selecting factors, responses, and
measurement methods and choosing the appropriate design.
define and apply the design principles of power and sample size, balance,
replication, order, efficiency, randomization and blocking, interaction and
confounding.
construct one-factor experiments such as completely randomized, randomized
block and Latin square designs, and apply computational and graphical methods
to analyze and evaluate the significance of results.
construct full-factorial experiments and apply computational and graphical
methods to analyze and evaluate the significance of results.
construct two-level fractional factorial experiments (including Taguchi designs)
and apply computational and graphical methods to analyze and evaluate the
significance of results, and understand the limitations of fractional factorials
caused by confounding.
apply Taguchi robustness concepts and techniques such as signal-to-noise ratio,
controllable and noise factors and robustness to external sources of variability.
construct mixture experiments and apply computational and graphical methods to
analyze and evaluate the significance of results.
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Six Sigma Green Belt web-based
Certification Preparation Course.
683
Introduction to Design of Experiments (DOE)
Black belts use Design of Experiments (DOE) to craft well-designed efforts to identify
which process changes yield the best possible results for sustained improvement.
Whereas most experiments address only one factor at a time, the Design of
Experiments (DOE) methodology focuses on multiple factors at one time. DOE
provides the data that illustrates the significance to the output of input variables acting
alone or interacting with one another.
ASQ defines DOE as: "A branch of applied statistics dealing with planning,
conducting, analyzing and interpreting controlled tests to evaluate the factors that
control the value of a parameter or group of parameters."
DOE provides these advantages over other, more traditional methods:
Evaluating multiple factors at the same time can reduce the time needed for
experimentation.
Some well-designed experiments do not require the use of sophisticated statistical
methods to understand the results at a basic level. However, computer software
can be used to yield very precise results as needed.
The costs vary depending on the experiment, but the financial benefits realized
from these experiments can be substantial.
The graphic below depicts an example of a relationship between the components that
DOE examines:
process input variables, normally referred to as x variables and as factors in DOE
terminology.
process output variables, normally referred to as y variables and as responses in
DOE terminology.
the relationship between input variables and output variables.
the interaction, or relationship, between input variables as it relates to the output
variables.
684
DOE Terminology
Certain terms are frequently used with DOE that need to be defined clearly. Click the
name of the term on the left to reveal a definition and information about each.
Independent variable
See predictor variable.
Dependent variable
See response variable.
Factor
A predictor variable that is varied with the intent of assessing its effect on a
response variable.
Most often referred to as an "input variable."
Factor Level
A specific setting for a factor. In DOE, levels are frequently set as high and low for
each factor. A potential setting, value or assignment of a factor of the value of the
predictor variable.
For example, if the factor is time, then the low level may be 50 minutes and the high
level may be 70 minutes.
Response variable
A variable representing the outcome of an experiment.The response is often referred
to as the output or dependent variable.
Treatment
The specific setting of factor levels for an experimental unit.
For example, a level of temperature at 65° C and a level of time at 45 minutes describe
a treatment as it relates to an output of yield.
Experimental error
An error from an experiment reveals variation in the outcome of identical tests. The
variation in the response variable beyond that accounted for by the factors, blocks, or
other assignable sources while conducting an experiment.
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DOE Terminology Continued
Certain terms are frequently used with DOE that need to be defined clearly. Click the
name of the term on the left to reveal a definition and information about each.
Experimental run
A single performance of an experiment for a specific set of treatment conditions.
Experimental unit
The smallest entity receiving a particular treatment, subsequently yielding a value of
the response variable.
Predictor Variable
A variable that can contribute to the explanation of the outcome of an experiment.
Also known as an independent variable.
Repeated Measures
The measurement of a response variable more than once under similar conditions.
Repeated measures allow one to determine the inherent variability in the measurement
system. Repeated measures are known as "duplication" or 'repetition."
Replicate
A single repetition of the experiment. See also replication.
Replication
Performance of an experiment more than once for a given set of predictor variables.
Each of the repetitions of the experiment is called a "replicate." Replication differs
from repeated measures in that it is a repeat of the entire experiment for a given set of
predictor variables, not just repeat of measurements of the same experiment.
Note: Replication increases the precision of the estimates of the effects in an
experiment. Replication is more effective when all elements contributing to the
experimental error are included. In some cases replication may be limited to repeated
measures under essentially the same conditions. In other cases, replication may be
deliberately different, though similar, in order to make the results more general.
Repetition
When an experiment is conducted more than once, repetition describes this event
when the factors are not reset. Subsequent test trials are run again but not necessarily
under the same conditions.
686
DOE Applications
Planning the experiment is probably the most important task in the Improve phase
when using DOE. For planning to be done well, some experts estimate that 10-25% of
your time spent should be devoted to planning and organizing the experiments.
The purpose of DOE is to create an observable event from which data may be
extracted and decisions made about the best methods to improve the process. DOE
may be used most effectively in the following situations:
Identifying factors that produce a specific response or outcome
Selecting between alternative approaches to effect the best outcome
In DOE, a full factorial design combines levels for each factor with levels for all other
factors. This basic design ensures that all combinations are used, but if factors are
many, this design may take too much time or be too costly to implement. In either
case, a fractional factorial design is selected as the number of runs is fewer with fewer
treatments.
For example, a four-factor factorial experiment studies the effects on a golf score
using four factors, each with two levels. The factors (and levels) could be: type of
driver (regular or oversized), type of ball construction (balata-covered or three-piece),
type of beverage (water or beer) and mode of travel (walking or riding). To run a full
factorial design experiment, 16 runs would be required (illustrated below).
For a fractional factorial, only 8 runs would be required (see below). Thus if time and
funding only permits 8 rounds of golf, the fractional factorial design will provide good
information about the main effects of the four factors as well as some information
about how these factors interact. More detail on these designs and their differences
may be found in later subtopics in this lesson.
687
DOE Applications
688
DOE Planning Process
The project team decides the exact steps to follow in the Improve phase. Steps to
include in the Improve phase may actually be identified in the Measure and Analyze
phases and should be noted to expedite later planning in the Improve phase. What
follows is a suggested guide for planning the experiment(s) to be conducted in the
Improve phase. The suggested process may be modified depending on the exact
situation.
To use DOE, follow these steps:
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DOE Planning Process
690
Design Array
Six Sigma Black Belt | Improve | Design of Experiments | DOE Planning Process
Concept: Design Array
Design Array
691
Barriers to the Planning Process
692
Selecting Experiment Factors
693
Other Planning Considerations
The DOE planning phase may include other considerations for the project team. Click
the considerations on the left to reveal relevant information on the right.
Iterative process
One large experiment does not normally reveal enough information to make final
decisions. Several iterations may be necessary so that the proper decisions may be
made and the proper value settings verified.
Measurement methods
Ensure that measurement methods are checked out prior to the experiment to avoid
errors or variations from the measurement method itself. Review measurement
systems analysis to ensure methods have been reviewed and instruments calibrated as
needed, etc.
Inference space
If the inference space is narrow, then the experiment is focused on a subset of a larger
process – such as one specific machine, one operator, one shift, or one production line.
With a narrowed or focused inference space, the chance for “noise” (variation in
output from factors not directly related to inputs) is much reduced.
If the inference is broad, the focus is on the entire process and the chances for noise
impacting the results are much greater.
694
Types of Experiment Designs
Part of planning an experiment is selecting the experiment design. Click the type of
design on the left to reveal a brief introduction of that design on the right.
2- level, 2 factor
The simplest of design options, the 2-level, 2-factor design uses only four
combinations or runs. The number in the first column represents the run number. The
"+" symbol represents the high level; the "–" symbol represents the low level.
Full Factorial
This design option includes all levels and all factors for a given process. The
advantage of a full factorial design is that all factors and levels are part of the
experiment, thus ensuring the most complete data.
If there are 2 levels and 6 factors (26), then there are 64 possible runs for the
experiment. A common description of factorial experiments is the designator Lf where
f is the number of factors in the experiment and Lf, the number of levels.
Fractional Factorial
This design is best used when you are unsure about which factor influences the
response outcome or when the number of factors is large (usually considered to be 5 or
more). A fractional factorial uses a subset of the total runs. For example, if there are 2
levels and 6 factors (26), then there are 64 possible runs for the experiment. For a
fractional factorial, the experiment could be reduced to 32 runs or perhaps even 16
runs. An example of this may be viewed later in this topic.
695
Design Principles
Black Belts adhere to a set of design principles to assist in the proper experiment
design. Click the name of the design principle on the left to reveal its description on
the right.
Power
The equivalent to one minus the probability of a Type II error (1-β). A higher power is
associated with a higher probability of finding a statistically significant difference.
Lack of power usually occurs with smaller sample sizes.
The Beta Risk (i.e., Type II Error or Consumer’s Risk) is the probability of failing
to reject the null hypothesis when there is significant difference (i.e., a product is
passed on as meeting the acceptable quality level when in fact the product is bad).
Typically, (β) = 0.10%. This means there is a 90% (1-β) probability you are rejecting
the null when it is false (correct decision). Also, the power of the sampling plan is
defined as 1-β, hence the smaller the β, the larger the power.
For example, the legal beta risk is the risk a guilty person could have been found not
guilty and is set free. This was also discussed in the Analyze lesson.
Sample Size
The number of sampling units in a sample.
Note: In a multistage sample, the sample size is the total number of sampling units at
the conclusion of the final stage of sampling.
Determining sample size is a critical decision in any experiment design. Generally, if
the experimenter is interested in detecting small effects, more replicates are required
than if the experimenter is interested in detecting large effects. Increasing the sample
size decreases the margin of error and improves the precision of the estimate. There
are several approaches to determining sample size including, but not limited to:
Operating Characteristic Curves, Specifying a Standard Deviation Increase, and
Confidence Interval Estimation Method.
Balanced Design
A design where all treatment combinations have the same number of observations. If
replication in a design exists, it would be balanced only if the replication was
consistent across all the treatment combinations. In other words, the number of
replicates of each treatment combination is the same.
696
Design Principles
Replication
Performance of an experiment more than once for a given set of predictor variables.
Each of the repetitions of the experiment is call a replicate. Replication differs from
repeated measures in that it is a repeat of the entire experiment for a given set of
predictor variables, not just a repeat of measurements for the same experiment.
Replication involves an independent repeat of each factor combination in random
order. For example, suppose a metallurgical engineer is interested in studying the
effect of two different hardening processes: oil quenching and saltwater quenching on
an aluminum alloy. If he has five alloy specimens and treats them in each of the
hardening processes, we will make ten observations. These should be done in random
order to maintain the properties of replication. First, the experimenter can obtain an
estimate of the experimental error which becomes a basic unit of measurement for
determining whether observed differences in the data are really statistically different.
Second, if the sample mean is used to estimate the true mean response for one of the
factor levels in the experiment, replication permits the experimenter to obtain a more
precise estimate of this parameter.
Repetition
When an experiment is conducted more than once, repetition describes this event
when the factors are not changed or reset. Subsequent test trials are run again but not
necessarily under the same conditions.
Efficiency
In experimental designs, efficiency refers to an experiment that is designed in such a
way as to include the minimal number of runs and to minimize the amount of
resources, personnel, and time utilized.
697
Design Principles Continued
Black Belts adhere to a set of design principles to assist in the proper experiment
design. Click the name of the design principle on the left to reveal its description on
the right.
Randomization
The process used to assign treatments to experimental units so each experimental
unit has an equal chance of being assigned a particular treatment. Randomization
validates the assumptions made in statistical analysis and prevents unknown biases
from impacting conclusions.
By randomization we mean that both the allocation of the experimental material and
the order in which the individual runs or trials of the experiment are to be performed
are arbitrarily determined.
For example, suppose the specimens in a metallurgical hardness experiment are of
slightly different thicknesses and the effectiveness of the quenching medium may be
affected by the specimen thickness. If all the specimens subjected to the oil quench are
thicker than those subjected to the saltwater quench, systematic bias may be
introduced into the results. This bias handicaps one of the quenching media and
consequently invalidates our results. Randomly assigning the specimens to the
quenching media alleviates this problem.
Blocking
The method of including blocks in an experiment in order to broaden the applicability
of the conclusions or to minimize the impact of selected assignable causes. The
randomization of the experiment is restricted and occurs within blocks.
Order
The order of an experiment refers to the chronological sequence of steps to an
experiment. The trials from an experiment should be carried out in a random run order.
In experimental design, one of the underlying assumptions is that the observed
responses should be independent of one another (i.e., the observations are
independently distributed). By randomizing the experiment, we reduce bias that could
result by running the experiment in a “logical” order.
Interaction effect
The interaction effect for which the apparent influence of one factor on the response
variable depends upon one or more other factors. Existence of an interaction effect
means that the factors cannot be changed independently of each other. (See example
on separate page)
Confounding
Indistinguishably combining an effect with other effects or blocks. When done,
higher-order effects are systematically aliased so as to allow estimation of lower-order
effects. Sometimes, confounding results from poor planning or inadvertent changes to
a design during the running of an experiment. Confounding can diminish or even
invalidate the effectiveness of the experiment. (See example on separate page)
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Design Principles Continued
Alias
An alias is a confounded effect resulting from the nature of the designed experiment.
The confounding may or may not be deliberate.
699
Interaction Example
Interaction occurs when one input factor depends on the level of another input factor
as it relates to an output variable. An example of interactions, as found in Design and
Analysis of Experiments by Douglas C. Montgomery, is typically graphed as in the
examples below.
In the first example, no interaction exists as the lines are parallel. This indicates a lack
of interaction between factors A and B. In the second example, interaction exists.
Review the examples below to understand the patterns of interaction when using
graphs such as these.
700
Confounding Example
When the effects of two or more factors cannot be separated from each other, those
factors are confounded or aliased to reduce the number of runs required in the
experiment. In the example below, the factors are calculated by multiplying the two
confounded factors together, for example: XY = negative times negative = positive.
701
One-Factor Experiments
As the name implies, one-factor experiments involve only one factor or input
variable. In a one-factor experiment the project team selects a starting point, or
baseline set of levels for each factor, then successively varying each factor over its
range with the other factors held constant at the baseline level. After each factor has
been tested, it is then easy to compare the results and conclude which factor most
likely provides the optimal results. For more information, roll over Page Resources,
and then click One-Factor Example.
Often, one-factor experiments are used when the critical factor has been determined
through prior analysis or when testing all factors is too costly or not practical. In these
cases, a one-factor experiment allows the project team to focus on the one critical
factor that can have the greatest impact on the response variable.
702
One-Factor Example
Using our previous golf example, each factor is tested while the other factors remain
the same – driver size, ball type, mode of travel and beverage.
The interpretation of the graph is straightforward; for example, because the slope of
the mode of travel curve is negative, we would conclude that riding improves the
score. Using these one-factor-at-a time graphs, we would select the optimal
combination to be the regular-sized driver, riding, and drinking water. The type of golf
ball seems unimportant.
703
Randomized Block Experiments
When focusing on just one factor in multiple treatments, it is important to maintain all
other conditions as constant as possible. Since the number of tests to ensure constant
conditions might be too large to practically implement, an experiment may be divided
into blocks. These blocks represent planned groups that exhibit homogeneous
characteristics. A randomized block experiment limits each group in the experiment to
exactly one and only one measurement per treatment.
For example, if an experiment is going to cover two shifts, then bias may emerge
based on the shift during which the test was conducted. A randomized block plan
might measure each item on each shift to reduce the chance for bias.
A randomized block experiment would arbitrarily select the runs to be performed
during each shift. For example, since the coolant temperature in the example below is
probably the most difficult to adjust, but may in part reflect the impact of the change
in shift, the best approach would be to randomly select runs to be performed during
each shift. The random selection might put runs 1, 4, 5 and 8 in the first shift and runs
2, 3, 6 and 7 in the second shift. Another approach that may be used to nullify the
impact of the shift change would be to do the first three replicates of each run during
the first shift and the remaining two replicates of each run during the second shift.
704
Latin Square Designs
A Latin square design involves three factors in which the combination of the levels
of any one of them and the levels of the other two appear once and only once. A Latin
square design is often used to reduce the impact of two blocking factors by balancing
out their contributions. A basic assumption is that these block factors do not interact
with the factor of interest or with each other. This design is particularly useful when
the assumptions are valid for minimizing the amount of experimentation.
The Latin square design has two limitations:
1. The number of rows, columns, and treatments must all be the same (in other
words, designs may be 3X3X3, 4X4X4, 5X5X5, etc.).
2. Interactions between row and column factors are not measured.
An example of a Latin square design (3X3) is seen below.
Three aircraft with three different engine configurations are used to evaluate the
maximum altitude when flown by three different pilots (A, B, and C). In this case, the
two constant sources are the aircraft (1, 2, and 3) and the engine configuration (I, II,
and III). The third variable – the pilots – is the experimental treatment and is applied
to the source variables (aircraft and engine). Notice that the condition of interest is the
maximum altitude each of the pilots can attain, not the interaction between aircraft or
engine configuration. For example, if the data shows that pilot A attains consistently
higher altitudes in each of the aircraft/engine configurations, then the skills and
techniques of that pilot are the ones to be modeled.
This is also an example of a fractional factorial as only nine of the 27 possible
combinations are tested in the experiment.
705
Full-Factorial Example - Steps 1 and 2
A full factorial experiment is one that contains all levels for all factors – no treatments
are left out of the experiment. A detailed example of a full factorial follows.
Suppose that temperature, time, and catalyst volume are three critical variables
suspected of affecting the yield percentage for an industrial grade lubricant. The
current yield percentage averages 82%.
Step 1: Establish experiment objectives:
The objective of the experiment is to maximize the yield percentage for the lubricant.
The higher the yield percentage, the more product is created and more efficient is the
use of resources.
Step 2: Identify factors to be considered:
The input variables (x) / factors are identified along with a high and low level for
each:
A. Temperatur 115° C 135° C
B. e: 50 minutes 70 minutes
C. Time 94 gallons 102 gallons
Volume of
catalyst
The output variable (y) / response is identified:
Yield percentage of lubricant
706
Full-Factorial Example - Steps 3 and 4
A decision must be made on whether to run the experiment more than once. If prior
analysis reveals a lot of variation in the process output (e.g., Cp or Cpk is less than
1.00, the generally accepted norm for a process that is not capable of meeting
requirements), then repeating or replicating the experiment may provide enough data
to see the dispersion in the output variable (y).
For this scenario, assume that no output variable variation was detected in prior
analysis work, so the decision is to not run the experiment more than once.
Step 4: Run the experiment:
Data are collected as the experiment runs. The results are recorded in the design array:
707
Full-Factorial Example - Step 5
Using this graphing technique, the data strongly suggests that there is a significant
effect from the temperature factor and only a slight effect for the time and catalyst
volume factors.
The effect of temperature may also be calculated by summing the yield values when
the temperature is high and by subtracting the yield values when the temperature is
low and dividing the results by four.
Temperature effect = (90+89+88+85) – (72+79+78+81) / 4 = 352-310/4 = 10.5
When the temperature is set at the high level, the yield gain is 10.5%. This increase is
due to the temperature factor because during the four high temperature treatments, the
other two factors were set at high two times and low two times.
Similarly, calculate the effects for the other two factors:
Time effect = (79+89+81+85) – (72+90+78+88) / 4 = 334-328 / 4 = 1.5
Catalyst volume effect = (78+88+81+85) – (72+90+79+89) / 4 = 332-330 / 4 = .5
The effects of changing the time to the higher level has a minor increase of 1.5%,
while increasing the volume of the catalyst has a very small increase in yield of .5%
708
Full-Factorial Example - Step 5 Cont. and Step 6
Similarly, the interaction effects of the factors may also be determined using a similar
method. The design array is expanded to account for the interactions. The "+" or "-"
indicator is determined by multiplication rules. For example, a "+" multiplied by a "-"
equals a "-". A "-" multiplied by a "-" equals a "+".
Using the same process, calculate the effects of the interaction between variables:
AxB effect = (72+89+78+85) – (90+79+88+81) / 4 = 324-338 / 4 = -3.5
BxC effect = (72+90+81+85) – (79+89+78+88) / 4 = 328-334 / 4 = -1.5
AxC effect = (72+79+88+85) – (90+89+78+81) / 4 = 324-338 / 4 = -3.5
AxBxC effect = (90+79+78+85) – (72+89+88+81) / 4 = 332-330 / 4 = .5
The study of interactions produces no information to contradict the original
understanding that temperature (10.5%) by itself has the greatest impact on the yield
percentage. All other factors and combination of factors produce no significant
increase in the yield percentage and may, in some of the combinations, actually
decrease it.
These techniques can be verified using the analysis of variance (ANOVA) process
previously discussed in detail in the Analyze and Measure lessons. Various statistical
packages may be used to calculate the results. Generally, a p-value less than .05 on a
specific factor demonstrates that factor is statistically significant. The percent of
contribution to the results may also be determined using the ANOVA by examining the
sum of squares (SS).
Step 6: Make decisions on next steps:
After the results of the experiment have been analyzed, decide what the next steps. In
this example, the factor of statistical significance is temperature. The following are
examples of possible next steps:
The first experiment could be repeated or replicated to verify results of the first
run. Replication would be costly, but would add weight to the results of the first
experiment.
A second experiment could be designed to build on the first. For example, the
higher level of temperature (135°C) could be used for all treatments with
variations allowed in the time or catalyst volume to produce additional
information on optimum levels.
The higher level of temperature (135° C) could be established as the new level
for the production process and the results could be monitored to compare with the
previous average yield of 82%.
709
Yates Order
When designing an experiment, the levels are assigned to each treatment in such a
way as to ensure all possible combinations for all factors are included. For an
experiment with a small number of factors, this is accomplished easily by observation.
However, for larger experiments, the process of allocating the levels is more difficult.
The Yates order is a means by which levels can be allocated to treatments of each
factor.
Let k equal the number of factors. Yates order is achieved for the kth column by
entering the sign for the low level of the factor (usually represented by a "-" or "-1") in
2k-1 rows, starting at the top of the column. This is followed by entering the sign for
the high level (usually denoted with a "+" or "+1") in 2k-1 rows.
For example, the levels of a four-factor experiment would be allocated like the
following:
k = 4 (with four columns).
Since there are two levels for each factor, there are 24 – or 16 – rows in total.
The 1st column has the low level sign in the 21-1 rows (21-1 = 1) or first row,
followed by the high level sign in the next row. This alternation continues until
all rows are completed.
The 2nd column has the low level sign in the 22-1 rows (22-1 = 2) or first two
rows, followed by the high level sign in the next two rows.
The 3rd column has the low level sign in the 23-1 rows (23-1 = 4) or first four
rows, followed by the high level sign in the next four rows.
The 4th column has the low level sign in the 24-1 rows (24-1 = 8) or first eight
rows, followed by the high level sign in the next eight rows.
The design array using the Yates order for four factors looks like the diagram below:
710
Yates Order
711
Fractional Factorial Experiments
For a fractional factorial, a subset of levels and treatments are used for the selected
factors. In the example below, the full factorial is 23 and the fractional factorial is 23-1.
Notice that the fractional only includes a subset of the possible combinations, but still
uses balance in the combinations selected. In the graph below, the grayed rows are not
used in the fractional factorial.
In the example above, the full factorial experiment uses all factors and all levels. The
fractional factorial experiment uses only a subset of the levels (those not selected are
grayed out).
Analysis of the fractional factorial experiment is conducted in the same manner as a
full factorial design.
Roll over Page Resources and click on Example to receive further information
regarding this topic.
712
Example
Six Sigma Black Belt | Improve | Design of Experiments | Fractional Factorial Experiments
Example: Example
Example
An engineer is planning an experiment involving eight factors, each at two levels. She
can afford no more than 35 runs. In this situation, a full factorial would require 28 =
256 runs and is thus not a possible design. She can use a fractional factorial design
that will keep her total number of runs close to but less than 35. The 28-3 fractional
factorial experimental design would require only 28-3 = 32 runs.
713
Introduction to Taguchi Designs
714
Orthogonal Arrays
Orthogonal designs or orthogonal arrays are balanced; they do not allow for
interaction between separate factors composing the design. A 3 x 3 Latin square
design is sometimes called a Taguchi L9 orthogonal array.
The simplest orthogonal array (OA) is the L4, which stands for four trial runs. It falls
within the two-level grouping of OAs. See example below.
715
Introduction to Taguchi Robustness
716
Taguchi Loss Function
According to Taguchi:
Excessive variation is a result of poor manufacturing quality. Reacting to
individual items inside and outside the specifications is counter-productive.
Quality engineering starts with an understanding of the cost of poor quality
(COPQ).
COPQ is more than the number of items outside the specification multiplied by
the cost of rework and scrap.
Cost to society also includes the loss to the customer through poor performance
and reliability, early wear out, and difficulties when interfacing with other parts.
Taguchi defined product quality as “the (minimum) loss imparted by the product to
society from the time the product is shipped.” The Taguchi loss function translates any
product deviation from its target parameter into a financial measure. Loss function:
maintains that poor quality causes increasing loss to all parties.
provides a financial value for customers' increasing dissatisfaction of product
performance.
gives a financial value for increasing costs as product performance exceeds the
desired target performance.
717
Loss Function
Taguchi bases loss function on the fact that quality is best at the target. With this in
mind, loss occurs at points away from the target, even if the product is within
specifications; meaning quality loss is zero if the characteristic is 100% at the target.
To use loss function for determining the financial loss that will occur when the quality
characteristic deviates from the target, one needs the following:
Cost of the defective product (A)
Tolerance; the amount of deviation from the target (Δ)
Target (m)
718
Loss Function Example
Identical televisions are assembled in two locations, a Six Sigma facility (Location 1)
and a non-Six Sigma facility (Location 2). The distribution of the television’s color
density is within specification in both locations; however, their distributions greatly
differ. Location 1 has 0.3% outside the limits, but location 2 has 0% outside the limits.
Looking at the illustrations below, you can see the impact of the distribution on the
loss function. Sets built at location 2 will result in a loss approximately 3 times that of
sets built in Location 1.
Location 1
Location 2
719
Loss Function Summary
720
Taguchi Robustness Concepts
Signal-to-noise ratios are defined so that a maximum value of the ratio minimizes
variability transmitted from the noise variables. Then an analysis is performed to
determine which settings of the controllable factors result in (1) the mean as close as
possible to the desired target and (2) a maximum value of the signal-to-noise ratio.
S/N ratio calculations are derived from the quality loss function. The objective is to
maximize the performance measure that will minimize the expected loss. To meet the
objective, designers select combinations of design variables that maximize the S/N
ratio because the higher the ratio, the better. There are 3 cases of S/N ratios to
consider: smaller is better, larger is better and nominal is best.
More information will be given on the next two pages regarding formulas and
examples.
721
Signal-to-Noise Ratio
S/N ratio measures the amount of unwanted noise relative to a signal's strength.
Commonly used in the electronics field, airlines require passengers to shut down all
electronic devices before takeoff and landing in order to reduce the background noise
that could disrupt the any of the airplane’s electronic systems. Think about how this
electronic example relates to conditions in the workplace for both equipment and
people.
As the magnitude of the process mean compared to its variation, the signal-to-noise
(S/N) ratio is an excellent statistical performance metric for determining the best
values/levels of the control factors. Taguchi developed the S/N ratio as a mathematical
equation indicating the experimental effect’s influence above the effect of
experimental error due to chance. Simply stated, S/N ratio is the estimated effect of all
the noise factors on the product’s performance characteristics.
Designers use S/N ratio calculations, derived from the quality loss function, to
maximize the performance measure that will minimize the expected loss. To meet the
objective, designers select combinations of design variables that maximize the S/N
ratio because the higher the ratio the better. There are three cases of S/N ratios to
consider: smaller is better, larger is better, and nominal is best.
Smaller-is-Better Larger-is-Better
Nominal-is-Best
722
Robustness Example
The Taguchi robustness concepts, in their simplest terms, involve the selection of
process or operating conditions where uncontrolled external variability does not affect
the product or process. The buttons below present a case where you must design a
product so an unwanted variable does not affect the output of the process. Click each
to learn more.
Amp 1
The classic example is that of an amplifier, which takes a signal and increases it. The
graph shows the plot of the output signal (dependent variable) as it changes with the
input voltage (independent variable).
Amp 2
Line voltage does vary and on occasion, it can be as low as 105 volts or even less, and
it can surge to 125 volts or higher. Adding the mean and the range of variability to the
graph shows the effect varying line voltage has on the output. In essence, both the
signal and variability have amplified.
723
Robustness Example
Amp 3
Designing the amplifier to operate normally on 140 volts instead of 120 would be on a
different portion of the response curve of the amplifier. This amplifier is now robust to
the fluctuations of the input voltage because the variation of line voltages minimizes
output.
724
Design Process
System Design
Also called "concept design"
Establishes basic engineering and design concepts; the overall architecture
Produces a prototype model to define initial product or product-design
characteristic settings
Parameter Design
Also known as "DOE"
Identifies settings that minimize variation
Finds the combination of control factor settings allowing the system to achieve its
ideal function
Is insensitive to uncontrollable variables
Tolerance Design
Sets tolerances to minimize the cumulative product manufacturing and lifetime
costs; online quality control.
Focuses resources to reduce and control variation in a few critical dimensions (as
per the Pareto principle).
Identifies tolerances that when tightened, produce substantial performance
improvements.
Determines economic design of safety factors.
Studies the trade-off between extra cost for tighter tolerance and improved
quality; also finds the most economical tolerances.
Conclusion
By identifying controllable parameters, the designer can develop a series of
experiments to determine the factor with the greatest positive influence on the output
of the desired product. Selecting a design or process that is insensitive to uncontrolled
sources of variation improves quality.
725
Mixture Experiments
Mixture experiments are used when the levels of factors which are the components or
ingredients of a mixture are not independent. A mixture experiment occurs when the
factors selected are proportions of the group of components being blended. Since these
proportions must sum to 100%, some standard mixture designs exist to facilitate this
approach. The response or outcome in a mixture experiment is assumed to depend on
the proportion of components in the mixture and not on the relative amounts in the
mixture. Mixture design accounts for the dependence of response on proportionality of
ingredients.
The purpose of a mixture experiment is to model the blended components so that
predictions of the response for any combination of the components can be made and
so a measure of the influence of each component on the response can be made.
A common example of a mixture experiment is the simplex-lattice design. This design
is the approach used in the example on the following pages.
726
Simplex-Lattice Example
The combinations displayed in the design array may be graphed in unique ways that
make the mixture designs stand out against other experiment designs. The graph below
is determined by the intersection of the level indicators on the outer edge of the graph.
727
Simplex-Lattice Example
The design of the experiment follows the unique limitation that all proportions must
equal 1. The design points in each simplex lattice may be determined by the equation:
(q+m-1)! / (M!(q-1)!)
The analysis of the data follows the same pattern as other experiment designs, using
ANOVA and other methods previously presented in this and other lessons.
728
Six Sigma Black Belt
Improve
Response Surface Methodology
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Improve topic, all learners will be able to:
construct steepest ascent/descent experiments and apply computational and
graphical methods to analyze the significance of results.
construct higher-order experiments such as central composite design (CCD) and
Box-Behnken and apply computational and graphical methods to analyze the
significance of results.
730
Introduction to Response Surface Methodology
731
Steepest Ascent or Descent
If two factors (X1, X2) are placed on an x-axis and y-axis, their effect on the response
variable may sometimes be viewed in a contour plot. Contour plots show lines of
constant response and are used to help the experimenter understand the response
surface for the purpose of more rapidly converging on the optimum point. When the
response surface is a plane, the contour plot will contain parallel straight lines. When
the response surface is “twisted” indicating significant interaction, the contour lines
will be curved. Thus, interaction is a form of curvature in the underlying response
surface model for the experiment.
The method of steepest ascent (where "ascent" means improvement in the
measurement of interest) is a well-known optimization technique that can be used to
systematically climb a response surface in specific step sizes to seek out an optimum
point. The goal of a steepest ascent approach to design is to move from an initial point
in the two-factor space (X1, X2) in the direction of steepest ascent to achieve the
greatest rate of increase in the response variable per distance traveled or maximum
point. In general, the path of steepest ascent is perpendicular to the lines on the
contour. By contrast, the method of steepest descent applies when searching for the
minimum point. An example of contour may be viewed below.
The nature of the contour curves in the vicinity of (+,+) suggests a path of steepest
ascent:
in the "northeast" direction.
about 30o above the horizontal.
732
Simplex Approaches to Steepest Ascent
In this example, three points are used initially (all points labeled “A”) since there are
two factors (see the rules listed above). Move from the lowest point (A70%) through
the center of the line between A80% and A83% to a point equal distance away from
the line between those two points. This produces the point labeled B90% as point
A70% is dropped. Next, repeat the process taking the lowest point A80% and moving
through the center point between A83% and B90% to a point equal distance on the
other side, which is C92%.
733
Central Composite Design
CCC – Circumscribed
Original form of CCD
Star points establish new end points for factor levels
Requires 5 levels for each factor
Symmetry is spherical, circular, or hyperspherical
CCF – Face Centered
Star points are center of each face
a= +/- 1
Requires 3 levels for each factor
CCI – Inscribed
Used when factor settings are truly the limits
Star points equal the factor settings for levels
A scaled down CCC design
Requires 5 levels for each factor
734
Box-Behnken Design
The Box-Behnken design is unique in that it does not contain an embedded factorial
or fractional factorial matrix. The treatment combinations are found at the mid-points
of edges of the process spaces in the design. The Box-Behnken requires three levels
for each factor. The primary limitation of this design is that blocking techniques are far
fewer when compared to other central composite designs.
The graph below depicts a Box-Behnken design for three factors (13 runs are
illustrated):
The qualities found in the Box-Behnken design compared to other CCDs are:
Requires fewer treatment combinations than a CCD for cases of three or four
factors.
Requires three levels for each factor rather than the five needed in most CCD
designs.
Its “missing corners” are helpful when extreme values from the combination of
factors are not needed or should be minimized.
735
Box Behnken Runs
The chart below illustrates the number of runs for Box-Behnken designs compared to
central composite designs:
736
Six Sigma Black Belt
Improve
Evolutionary Operations
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Improve topic, all learners will be able to understand the application
and strategy of evolutionary operations (EVOP).
738
Introduction to EVOP
Introduction
The purpose of the evolutionary operations methodology(EVOP) is to improve a
process through systematic changes in the operating conditions of a given set of
factors. An experimental design is established and conducted through a series of
phases and cycles. The effects are tested for statistical significance against
experimental error when such error can be calculated. When a factor is found to be
significant, the operating conditions for that factor are reset and the experiment
conducted again. This process continues until no further gain is achieved. Hence, the
concept of an evolution is established.
739
Advantages of EVOP
740
EVOP Process
Example Process:
1. To run a two-factor or three-factor experiment (EVOP’s are not limited to two or
three-factor experiments): Repeat the experiment and, after the second cycle,
begin to measure the error and significance of results. (ANOVA tables are often
used for this purpose as well as statistical software.)
2. Continue the experiment for a third cycle and, if a factor is demonstrated to be
significant, begin a second phase with a new set of conditions based on the
significant results.
If factors are not statistically significant, consider increasing the range of the
levels for these factors, or
Consider replacing these factors with different factors.
3. If no factor is significant after eight cycles, change the factor levels or select new
factors.
4. When no further gain is evident, run new experiments to verify it with new
factors or factor levels; then conclude the EVOP.
741
Example of EVOP
A plant has a chemical process that produces a commercial solvent when several
chemicals are mixed together. An EVOP is structured with two factors: temperature
and reaction time. The current process setting for temperature is 175o C. Levels are
selected at 165o C and 185o C. The current process setting for reaction time is 50
minutes. Levels are selected at 46 minutes and 54 minutes.
The result of the first cycle might look like the diagram below:
742
ANOVA Table
743
Lesson Summary
The Improve phase is about addressing root causes with solutions. Solutions must be
developed, tried, and implemented with the support of data. To accomplish this,
solutions should be developed using a planned, systematic approach aimed at
eliminating or reducing the impact of the identified root cause.
The purpose of DOE is to provide the most efficient and economical method of
reaching valid and relevant conclusions from the experiment.
Planning the experiment is probably the most important DOE task. SSBBs must
adhere to a set of design principles to assist in the proper experiment design.
One-factor experiments involve only 1 factor or input variable, multi-factor
experiments are designed to evaluated multiple factors set at multiple levels, and
full-factorial experiments use an experiment to test each possible combination of
the factors.
Taguchi Methods are a variation of full-factorial DOE design using a limited
number of experimental runs. Taguchi’s robust design aims to produce a reliable
design by controlling parameters so random noise does not cause failure.
SSBBs use mixture experiments when the levels of factors that are the
components or ingredients of a mixture are not independent; thus blended into a
group of components. This experiment models the blended components in order
to predict a response for any combination.
Response surface methodology determines how a set of quantitative factors over
a specified region affects response in order to set optimal levels for the variables.
744
Lesson Bibliography
Bibliography
American Society for Quality. ASQ’s Foundations in Quality Learning Series:
Certified Manager of Quality/Organizational Excellence. Milwaukee, WI: ASQ, 2005.
American Society for Quality. ASQ’s Foundations in Quality Learning Series:
Certified Quality Auditor. Milwaukee, WI: ASQ, 2004.
American Society for Quality. ASQ’s Foundations in Quality Learning Series:
Certified Quality Engineer. Milwaukee, WI: ASQ, 2000.
American Society for Quality. "Glossary and Index." ASQ's Certified Quality Engineer
Self-Directed Lean Program. Milwaukee, WI: ASQ, 2000
American Society for Quality. Six Sigma Green Belt Certification Preparation Course,
Version 1 (web-based course). Milwaukee, WI, 2006.
ASQ Statistics Division. Kittlitz, Rudy, editor. Glossary and Tables for Statistical
Quality Control. 4th ed. Milwaukee, WI: ASQ Quality Press, 2005.
Beezer, Rob. "Graeco-Latin Squares." Rob Beezer. 09 Jan 1995. University of Puget
Sound. 18 Jul 2006.
Benbow, Donald W. and T.M. Kubiak. The Certified Six Sigma Black Belt Handbook.
Milwaukee, WI: ASQ Quality Press, 2005.
Benbow, Donald, Roger Berger, Ahmad Elshennawy, H. Fred Walker, editors.The
Certified Quality Engineer Handbook. Milwaukee, WI: ASQ Quality Press, 2002.
Bossert, James, editor. The Supplier Management Handbook, 6thEdition. Milwaukee,
WI: ASQ Quality Press, 2004.
Keiningham, Timothy and Terry Vavra. The Customer Delight Principle. New York,
NY: McGraw-Hill, 2001.
Montgomery, Douglas C. Design and Analysis of Experiments, 6th ed. Hoboken, NJ:
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2005.
Oakes, Duke and Russell Westcott, editors. The Certified Quality Manager Handbook.
2nd ed. Milwaukee, WI: ASQ Quality Press, 2001.
Westcott, Russell, editor. The Certified Manager of Quality/Organizational Excellence
Handbook. 3rd ed. Milwaukee, WI: ASQ Quality Press, 2006.
745
Six Sigma Black Belt
Control
Lesson Introduction
747
Lesson Overview
The tools and objectives of the Control phase are illustrated below.
748
Six Sigma Black Belt
Control
Statistical Process Control
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Control topic, all learners will be able to:
understand objectives and benefits of SPC (e.g., controlling process performance,
distinguishing special from common causes).
select critical characteristics for monitoring by control chart.
define and apply the principle of rational subgrouping.
identify, select, construct and apply control charts such as:
X and R.
X and s.
ImR / X-MR.
X~ and R.
p.
np.
c.
u.
interpret control charts and distinguish between common and special causes using
rules for determining statistical control.
define and explain PRE-control and perform PRE-control calculations and
analysis.
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Quality Process Analyst web-based
Certification Preparation Course and the ASQ Foundations in Quality Learning
Series: Certified Quality Engineer.
750
SPC Introduction
"A phenomenon will be said to be controlled, when through the use of past experience,
we can predict, at least within limits, how the phenomenon may be expected to behave
in the future." Walter A. Shewhart
Pioneered by Walter Shewhart in the 1920s and later enhanced by W. Edwards
Deming, statistical process control (SPC) is a statistical method for measuring,
monitoring, controlling, and improving a process. The basic rule of SPC is to leave the
variations from common causes to chance, but to identify and eliminate special causes.
Since all processes are subject to variation, SPC relies on the statistical evidence
instead of on intuition.
SPC focuses on optimizing continuous improvement by using statistical tools for
analyzing data, making inferences about process behavior, and then making
appropriate decisions.
Variation is defined as "a change in the process data; a characteristic or a function that
results from some cause." Statistical process control begins with the recognition that
all processes contain variation. No matter how consistent the production appears to be,
measurement of the process data will indicate a level of dispersion or variability in the
data. The management and improvement of variation are at the very heart of the
strategy of statistical process control.
751
SPC Objectives and Benefits
When Shewhart developed his theory of statistical control, the approach was new and
innovative. Today, SPC is considered by most to be a foundational tool in any quality
management process. Click below to learn more.
Objectives
To use the data generated by the process, called the “voice of the process,” to
inform the Six Sigma Black Belt and team members when intervention is or is
not required.
To reduce variation, increase knowledge about a process and steer the process in
the desired way.
To detect quickly the occurrence of special causes of process shifts so that
investigation of the process and corrective action may be undertaken before many
nonconforming (defective) units are manufactured.
Benefits
SPC will maximize profits and improve customer service by providing the tools to:
Monitor processes for maintaining control
Detect special causes
Serve as decision-making aids
Reduce the need for inspection
Increase product consistency
Improve product quality
Decrease scrap and rework
Increase production output
Streamline processes
752
SPC Objectives and Benefits
Tools
Quality management processes may vary in the SPC tools utilized. Typical tools of
SPC include:
Control charts
Pre-control charts
Flow charts
Run charts
Pareto charts and analysis
Fishbone diagrams
Histograms
Process capability analysis
Scatter diagrams
Sampling plans
Regression and correlation
Hypothesis testing
Design of experiments
Analysis of variance
753
Common and Special Causes
The basic rule of SPC is that variation from common causes (controlled) should be
left to chance, but special causes (uncontrolled) should be identified and eliminated.
Shewhart called the causes “common” and “assignable” respectively; however, the
terms common and special are more frequently used today. Click below to learn more.
Common causes
Common causes are sources of process variation that are inherent in a process over
time. A process that has only common causes operating is said to be in statistical
control. A common cause is sometimes referred to as a "chance cause" or "random
cause".
Special causes
Special causes or assignable causes are sources of process variation (other than
inherent process variation) periodically disrupting the process. A process that has
special causes operating is said to lack statistical control.
754
Common and Special Causes
755
Selection of Variable
According to the Glossary and Tables for Statistical Quality Control, Fourth Edition,
ASQ Statistics Division, a control chart plots a statistical measure of a series of
samples in a particular order to steer the process regarding that measure and to control
and reduce variation. Two key notes to consider are:
1. The order is usually time or sample number ordered-based.
2. The control chart operates most effectively when the measure is a process
characteristic correlated with an ultimate product or service characteristic.
Because of the Improve Phase of the DMAIC process, the Black Belt and team have
implemented improvements to the variables or inputs (Xs) in the process causing
variation in the output (Y). Once these improvements are in place, it is important to
monitor the process. Select statistically and practically significant variables for
monitoring that are critical to quality (CTQ) when establishing control charts. It is
possible to monitor multiple variables using separate control charts.
756
Rational Subgrouping
Number of Subgroups
Establishing rational subgroups is important for dividing observations.
Compute statistics for each subgroup separately before plotting on the control
chart.
Desire a minimal chance for variations within each subgroup:
For example, 5 subgroups of 5 typically provide more useful information
than 1 subgroup of 25 because the elapsed time between samples is
minimized, providing more opportunities to detect process shift. The
common cause variation can be measured with little or no influence from the
special cause variation.
Defect or Defective
Defect - An undesirable result on a product; also known as "a nonconformity".
Defective - An entire unit failing to meet specifications; also known as "a
nonconformance".
Note: A unit may have multiple defects.
Sample Size
Generally, 2 to 10 items produced under essentially the same conditions.
757
Rational Subgrouping Example
Example
A SSBB desires to monitor a process that manufactures PET (plastic) bottles for the
beverage industry. The bottles are injection-molded on a multicavity carousel. The
particular carousel contains 4 cavities and the SSBB initially decides to take 3 bottles
from each cavity each hour and measure a critical characteristic. The data might look
like the table below (where M1, M2, and M3 are the 3 measures).
Option 1
Every hour, take 3 samples (subgroups) of 4 bottles (n = 4) at random. Plot the process
(on one chart).
Positives
Each hour has 3 averages and 3 ranges to plot.
The range indicates overall process variation.
Chart provides overall assessment of the quality during the time period.
Option provides data for overall assessment of process capability.
This is the easiest method of sampling.
Negatives
Data is sampled without regard as to which cavity.
Sampling does not provide cavity-specific data to assist in finding causes of
variation.
Option 2
Every hour, take 3 samples (subgroups) of 4 bottles (n = 4) or one bottle from each
cavity. Plot chart for process on 1 chart.
Positives
Data records the cavity the bottle is from.
Each hour has 3 averages and 3 ranges to plot.
Chart shows overall quality during the time period.
Chart provides data for overall assessment of process capability.
Range reflects the difference between the cavities.
Negatives
Chart requires more time collecting and recording data.
Data displays assessment by cavity, but requires additional analysis, not
immediate feedback.
758
Rational Subgrouping Example
Option 3
Every hour, take 4 samples (subgroups) and 3 bottles (n = 3) with each sample from a
different cavity. Plot each cavity on separate charts.
Positives
Maintaining 4 separate charts (one per cavity).
Each chart with one mean and one range to plot each hour.
Easy identification of where (which cavity) changes in the process occur.
Areas in need of improvement readily targeted.
Specific cavity capability data provided.
Most information relative to the process provided.
Negatives
Requires more time for data collection and plotting
Requires collecting more data to establish the control limits
Key Questions
Each option is appropriate depending on the circumstances. Key questions to consider
are:
How capable is the process?
Is monitoring overall quality more important than detecting the shifts?
How easy is it to identify a special cause when it occurs?
How much does it cost to collect the data and perform the tests?
759
Rational Subgrouping Exercise
The following example is taken from The Certified Six Sigma Black Belt Handbook by
Donald W. Benbow and T.M. Kubiak.
"
Suppose a candy-making process uses 40 pistons to deposit 40 chocolate pieces on a
moving sheet of wax paper in a 5 X 8 array on a conveyor belt. Below are 2 options
illustrating how a rational subgrouping of 5 are selected:
Option 1: The first 5 chocolates in each row formed by 5 different pistons.
Option 2: The upper left-hand chocolate formed in 5 consecutive arrays by the
same piston.
"
[ This page in the e-Learning course contains an animation or activity that cannot be printed.
See the online version to view this content. ]
760
Control Charts
Description
Originated by Walter Shewhart, control charts are a type of graph for studying how a
process changes over time. By comparing data points to a central line average, with an
upper control limit (UCL) and lower control limit (LCL), users can note variation,
track common causes, and seek special causes. Alternative names are "statistical
process control charts" and "Shewhart charts".
Run charts display data measures over time without the central line average and the
limits.
761
Basic Control Charts
Procedure
1. Choose the appropriate control chart for your data (Information about specific
types to come).
2. Determine the appropriate time period for collecting and plotting data.
3. Collect data and construct the chart with trial control limits using rational
subgrouping.
4. Analyze the chart to determine process stability, looking for out-of-control
signals.
5. Resolve any control issues, looking for assignable causes.
6. Recalculate the limits as necessary.
7. Prepare charts and instructions for production use.
8. Take samples and record data on the control chart.
9. Look for out-of-control conditions.
10. When out-of-control conditions occur, take appropriate action. Otherwise, leave
the process alone.
Use When
Controlling ongoing processes by finding and correcting problems as they occur.
Predicting the expected range of outcomes from a process.
Determining if a process is in statistical control.
Differentiating variation from non-routine events or common causes.
Determining whether the quality improvement should aim to prevent specific
problems or make fundamental process changes.
The process is in control.
User Tips
Time is always the horizontal (X) axis.
Control charts must have:
Centerline (average)
An upper control limit (UCL) and lower control limit (LCL)
Data points
Title
Legend
Labeled axes
When starting a new control chart, the process must be in control.
The control limits calculated from the first 20 points are conditional limits.
Recalculate the control limits after collecting at least 25-30 ordered points from a
period when the process is operating in control.
Developing a control chart with fewer than 25-30 points may not be statistically
valid.
If encountering an outlier when developing the control chart, investigate to see if
there is an assignable cause; if so, eliminate the point from the analysis.
762
Types of Control Charts
Different types of control charts exist depending on the measurement used. This topic
reviews two basic categories of control: variable charts and attribute charts.
Variable charts
Constructed from variable data (data that consists of measurements like weight,
length, etc.)
Variable data contains more information than data that simply qualifies or counts
something.
Consequently, variable charts are some of the most powerful tools in quality
improvement.
Types: Average and range (X and R), median and range (X~ and R), average and
standard deviation (X and s), and individual and moving range (X-MR, I-MR, or
I-mR).
Samples are taken in 2-10 subgroups at predetermined intervals with the statistic
(mean, range, or standard deviation) calculated and recorded on the chart.
Attribute charts
Use attribute data (data that counts items, such as the number of rejects or the
number of errors).
Control charts based on attribute data are generally less powerful.
Sometimes more difficult to interpret than variable charts.
Types: p-charts, np-charts, c-charts, u-charts.
Samples are taken from lots of material where the number of defective units in
the sample are counted (for p and np-charts) or the number of individual defects
are counted for a defined unit (c and u-charts).
The structure of both types of control charts is similar, but the statistical construction of
the control limits is quite different due to the differences in the distributions in each.
763
Control Charts Roadmap
The roadmap below leads users to the appropriate control chart. To introduce a control
chart type in upcoming sections, this map will reappear highlighting the path
(characteristics) of the particular control chart. Study each to learn the characteristics
of each control chart.
764
Introducing Variable Control Charts
765
Variable Equations
When working with control charts, one must calculate upper and lower control limits.
Print this page as a reference for upcoming calculations.
766
X-bar and R
The average and range chart or X and R chart is the first type of variable control
chart we will explore.
767
Calculating X-bar and R
768
Calculating X-bar and R
769
Calculating X-bar and R
770
Calculating X-bar and R
771
Calculating X-bar and R
772
Calculating X-bar and R
Finished
773
Graphing X-bar and R
774
Graphing X-bar and R
775
Graphing X-bar and R
776
Graphing X-bar and R
777
Completed X-bar and R Graph
778
Activity: X-bar and R
With the data below, create an X and R control chart. When finished, roll over Page
Resources, and then click the appropriate X and R Answer tab to check your work.
779
X-bar and R Answer Math
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: X-bar and R
Example: X-bar and R Answer Math
780
X-bar and R Answer Table
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: X-bar and R
Example: X-bar and R Answer Table
781
X-bar and R Answer Graph
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: X-bar and R
Example: X-bar and R Answer Graph
782
Summary: X-bar and R
The X and R (average and range chart) has become the “workhorse” for many
companies as they implement statistical process control. These charts are very useful
because they are sensitive enough to detect early signals of process drift or target shift.
Advantages
Easy to construct.
Easy to interpret.
Information from data is needed to perform process capability studies.
When a process can be sufficiently monitored by collecting variable data in small
subgroups.
Can be sensitive to process changes and provide early warning; providing
opportunity to act before situation worsens.
Disadvantage
Can only be used when data is available to collect in subgroups.
783
Median (X-tilde and R)
The median control chart or X~ and R chart is calculated using the same formulas
as the X and R chart. The median control chart is different from the average and range
chart in that it is easier to use and requires fewer calculations because the median is
plotted rather than the average of the sample. Typically, the ease of using arithmetic is
the advantage of using a median chart.
784
Calculating X-tilde and R
785
Calculating X-tilde and R
786
Calculating X-tilde and R
787
Calculating X-tilde and R
788
Calculating X-tilde and R
789
Calculating X-tilde and R
Finished
790
Graphing X-tilde and R
791
Graphing X-tilde and R
792
Graphing X-tilde and R
793
Graphing X-tilde and R
794
Completed X-tilde and R Graph
795
Activity: X-tilde and R
With the data below, create an X~ and R control chart. When you are finished, roll
over Page Resources and click the appropriate X~ and R Answer tab to check your
work.
796
X-tilde and R Answer Math
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: X-tilde and R
Example: X-tilde and R Answer Math
797
X-tilde and R Answer Table
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: X-tilde and R
Example: X-tilde and R Answer Table
798
X-tilde and R Answer Graph
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: X-tilde and R
Example: X-tilde and R Answer Graph
799
Summary: X-tilde and R
The X~ and R (median) chart is an alternative to the X and R chart and is easier to use
because it requires fewer calculations. The median chart is often used when outliers
are expected.
Advantages
Easy to use
Shows the process variation
Shows both the median and the spread
Disadvantages
Less efficient, exhibiting more variation than the X and R chart
Difficult to detect trends and other anomalies in the range
800
X-bar and s
The average and standard deviation chart (X and s) is the next type of variable
chart to explore. This chart is quite similar to the average and range chart except that
the statistic used to measure subgroup dispersion is the subgroup standard deviation
instead of the subgroup range.
801
Calculating X-bar and s
802
Calculating X-bar and s
803
Calculating X-bar and s
804
Calculating X-bar and s
805
Calculating X-bar and s
806
Calculating X-bar and s
Finished
807
Graphing X-bar and s
808
Graphing X-bar and s
809
Graphing X-bar and s
810
Graphing X-bar and s
811
Completed X-bar and s Graph
812
Activity: X-bar and s
With the sample data below, create an X and s control chart. When you are finished,
roll over Page Resources and click the appropriate X and s Answer to check your
work.
813
X-bar and s Answer Math
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: X-bar and s
Example: X-bar and s Answer Math
814
X-bar and s Answer Table
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: X-bar and s
Example: X-bar and s Answer Table
815
X-bar and s Answer Graph
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: X-bar and s
Example: X-bar and s Answer Graph
816
Summary: X-bar and s
The X and s (average and standard deviation) chart is not used nearly as much as the
X and R chart. One reason for the limited use of the X and s chart is simply that it is
more complex to construct and use.
Advantages
When the subgroup sizes are fairly large (greater than 10), it is often beneficial to
consider the average and standard deviation chart, since using the range as the
measure of dispersion may not yield a good estimate of process variability.
It may also be used when more sensitivity in detecting a process shift is desired,
as in the case where the product being manufactured is quite expensive and any
change in the process could either cause quality problems or add unnecessary
costs.
Disadvantages
May issue false signals at a much higher rate than other types of control charts.
Is complex to construct and use.
817
Introducing Moving Range
Because of the type of data available and the situation, various control charts may be
applicable. Given the unknowns of future projects and situations, the Six Sigma Black
Belt may prefer to use the individual and moving range (X-MR, I-MR) control chart.
Black Belt's often use this chart with limited data, such as when production rates are
slow, testing costs are very high, or there is a high level of uncertainty relative to
future projects. It has also found use where data are plentiful, such as in the case of
automatic testing of every unit where no basis exists for establishing subgroups.
On a typical moving range chart, calculate the range between two successive units (n
= 2), but more successive units may be included in the range calculation. The factors
for calculating upper and lower control limits on the MR-chart are the same as used in
the R-chart.
On the X-chart, plot every observation and calculate the upper and lower limits using
the factor E2.
818
X-MR
The individual and moving range chart (X-MR, I-MR) is applicable when the
sample size used for process monitoring is n = 1. Roll over Page Resources, and then
click Using X-MR to see a list of applicable uses of X-MR control charts.
819
Using X-MR
820
Calculating X-MR
Collect data
821
Calculating X-MR
822
Calculating X-MR
Finished
823
Graphing X-MR
824
Graphing X-MR
825
Graphing X-MR
826
Graphing X-MR
827
Completed X-MR Graph
828
Activity: X-MR
With the data below, create an X-MR control chart. When you are finished, roll over
Page Resources and click the appropriate X-MR Answer to check your work.
829
X-MR Answer Math
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: X-MR
Example: X-MR Answer Math
830
X-MR Answer Table
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: X-MR
Example: X-MR Answer Table
831
X-MR Answer Graph
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: X-MR
Example: X-MR Answer Graph
832
Summary: X-MR
An X-MR (individuals and moving range) chart is quite useful, since it is constructed
with individual measures (that is, the subgroup size is one). The X-MR chart is
applicable to many different situations, since there are many scenarios when the most
obvious subgroup size is one (monthly data, etc.).
A SSBB can use the individuals and moving range chart early in the production of a
new product or the implementation of a new process. Then later, after more process
knowledge is gained, it would be better to switch to a more sensitive chart.
Advantages
Useful even in a situation with small amounts of data.
Easy to construct and apply.
Useful in the early stages of a new process when not much is known about the
structure of the data.
Disadvantage
Cannot discern between common cause and special cause variation.
833
Summary: Variable Charts
Variable control charts have many advantages, especially the sensitivity they exhibit
when designed appropriately. To learn more about some guidelines regarding the
choice of variable charts, click each chart type below.
X and R
Average and range (X and R) charts are some of the most often used charts in SPC.
The subgroup size for these charts is less than 10 and usually between 3 and 5. When
designed effectively, these charts can be very sensitive and provide for excellent
process monitoring. Since the average range of the subgroup drives the width of the
control limits for the average chart, the subgroup size and selection process are crucial
for these charts.
X~ and R
The median control chart or X~ and R chart is similar to the X and R chart and is
calculated using the same formulas. The subgroup size for these charts is less than 10.
The median control chart is different from the average and range chart in that it is
easier to use and requires fewer calculations, as the median is plotted rather than the
average of the sample. Typically, the ease of using arithmetic is the main advantage in
using a median chart,which may also be used when anticipating outliers.
X and s
Average and standard deviation (X and s) charts are like the average and range charts
in many ways, but the subgroup size is greater than 10. The large subgroup size means
that X and s charts can be very sensitive to changes in the process. Thus, they are often
used when you desire greater sensitivity and are willing to increase the cost of
sampling.
X-MR
Six Sigma Black Belts often use individual and moving ranges (X-MR) charts at the
beginning of a process launch when data is in short supply and each item processed is
important. Since the subgroup size is one for this chart, it is widely applicable,
especially in situations where small amounts of data are available.
834
Attribute Equations
When working with attribute data charts, it is important to differentiate these related
terms.
Defect - An undesirable result on a product; also known as a nonconformity.
Defective - An entire unit failing to meet specifications; also known as a
nonconformance.
Note: A unit may have multiple defects.
On a form, an incorrectly completed block is a defect, thus one form may have
multiple defects. However, any form with at least one defect would be defective. In
monitoring form accuracy, one might count the number of defective forms or the total
number of individual defects in a given number of forms.
Of the attribute control charts, p and np-charts monitor percent defective (also known
as fraction defective and fraction nonconforming) while c and u-charts are counts of
defects.
In the respective formulas, the variable k is the number of subgroups taken. When k
appears in formulas, take an average for all the subgroups.
Print this page as a reference for upcoming calculations with attribute charts.
835
Attribute Equations
836
p-Charts
The p-chart is one of the most-used types of attribute charts. It shows the proportion
of defective items in successive samples of equal or varying size. Consider the
proportion as the number of defectives divided by the number in the sample. To
develop the control limits for a p-chart, consider the case where we are inspecting a
variable sample size and recording the number of nonconforming items in each
sample.
837
Introducing the p-Chart
Identify p
Take a sample of size n from a large lot and then count the total number of
defective units.
For each sample, calculate a value of p as the number defective divided by the
sample size, and then plot this proportion value on the chart.
Centerline
To calculate the centerline of the p-chart,
p, the summation of np, is the same as saying the sum of the total number of
defective units.
The summation of n is just the total number of items in all the samples.
Alternative Methods
Once establishing the process average p, alternative methods are available to handle
variable sample sizes.
If using a computer to monitor the process, it is common to calculate the limits
based on every sample size. Some refer to this process as having moving limits.
OR
Put two sets of limits on the chart, calculated using the maximum and minimum
anticipated sample sizes.
Then evaluate the points falling in between these two limits to determine if, when
actual limits for the sample size are used, they signal out-of-control conditions.
838
Calculating p-Charts
839
Calculating p-Charts
840
Calculating p-Charts
841
Calculating p-Charts
Finished
842
Graphing p-Charts
843
Graphing p-Charts
844
Graphing p-Charts
845
Activity: p-Charts
With the data below, create a p-Chart. When finished, roll over Page Resources and
click the appropriate p-Chart Answer to check your work.
846
p-Chart Answer Math
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: p-Charts
Example: p-Chart Answer Math
847
p-Chart Answer Table
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: p-Charts
Example: p-Chart Answer Table
848
p-Chart Answer Graph
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: p-Charts
Example: p-Chart Answer Graph
849
np-Charts
The np-chart, number of defective units, is related to the p-chart. The np-chart is a
control chart of the counts of nonconforming items (defectives) in successive samples
of constant size.
The np-chart can be used in place of the p-chart to plot the counts of nonconforming
items (defectives) when there is a constant sample size. In effect, using np-charts
involves converting from proportions to a plot of the actual counts.
850
Calculating np-Charts
851
Calculating np-Charts
852
Calculating np-Charts
Finished
853
Graphing np-Charts
854
Graphing np-Charts
855
Activity: np-Charts
With the data below, create an np-Chart. When finished, roll over Page Resources
and click the appropriate np-Chart Answer to check your work.
856
np-Chart Answer Math
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: np-Charts
Example: np-Chart Answer Math
857
np-Chart Answer Table
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: np-Charts
Example: np-Chart Answer Table
858
np-Chart Answer Graph
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: np-Charts
Example: np-Chart Answer Graph
859
Summary: p and np Charts
The centerlines in p and np-charts may not be midway between the control limits
because sometimes the lower control limit is zero.
Binomial distribution serves as the statistical model for both p and np-charts,
thus, Six Sigma Black Belts often misuse p and np-charts because they fail to
realize that the data does not meet the conditions of a binomial model. As Donald
J. Wheeler writes in Advanced Topics in Statistical Process Control, "there are
several conditions to meet before the binomial model is applicable and p and
np-charts are appropriate:
Each item must either possess or not possess the characteristic in question to
the quality standard (items judged as acceptable or not acceptable, good or
bad, etc.).
The probability that a given item possesses the characteristic of interest is
independent of whether there are or not preceding items."
Six Sigma Black Belts often use X-MR charts instead of p and np-charts,
especially when there is doubt about meeting the binomial model conditions.
860
Introducing c and u
C-charts and u-charts are based on Poisson distribution and work with the count of
individual defects rather than numbers of defective units (used in the p and np-charts).
Six Sigma Black Belts use c and u-charts where there are opportunities for many
defects per defined inspection unit.
For additional overview information on c and u-charts, click each item below.
C-Chart Formula
The c-chart formulas assume counting the number of defects in the same area of
opportunity. The c in the formulas is the number of defects found in the defined
inspection unit, and that is plotted on the chart.
For example, if the inspection unit is 100 forms, count the defects on a sample of 100
forms and plot that number on the c-chart.
U-Chart Formula
With a u-chart, the number of inspection units may vary. The u-chart requires an
additional calculation with each sample to determine the average number of defects
per inspection unit. The n in the formulas is the number of inspection units in the
sample.
A firm generates 250 forms in a given day and inspection found 27 errors.
Since a sample contains 100 forms, 2.5 inspected units were examined (250
forms/ 100 forms/sample).
To calculate u (defects per unit), divide the number of errors by the inspection
unit (27 errors / 2.5 inspection units).
Plot the u = 10.8 defects per unit on the control chart.
861
Introducing c and u
862
c-Charts
Use the c-chart, c standing for counts, when you are interested in the number of
defects per inspection unit. The formulas for the control limits for the c chart (and the
u chart, which is discussed later) are based upon the Poisson model.
863
Calculating c-Charts
864
Calculating c-Charts
Finished
865
Graphing c-Charts
866
Graphing c-Charts
867
Graphing c-Charts
868
Activity: c-Charts
With the data below, create a c-Chart. When finished, roll over Page Resources and
click the appropriate c-Chart Answer to check your work.
869
c-Chart Answer Math
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: c-Charts
Example: c-Chart Answer Math
870
c-Chart Answer Table
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: c-Charts
Example: c-Chart Answer Table
871
c-Chart Answer Graph
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: c-Charts
Example: c-Chart Answer Graph
872
u-Charts
The u-chart monitors the defects (nonconformities) per unit when the number of
inspection units is allowed to vary.
873
Calculating u-Charts
874
Calculating u-Charts
875
Calculating u-Charts
876
Calculating u-Charts
Finished
877
Graphing u-Charts
878
Graphing u-Charts
879
Activity: u-Charts
With the data below, create a u-Chart. When finished, roll over Page Resources and
click the appropriate u-Chart Answer to check your work.
880
u-Chart Answer Math
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: u-Charts
Example: u-Chart Answer Math
881
u-Chart Answer Table
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: u-Charts
Example: u-Chart Answer Table
882
u-Chart Answer Graph
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Activity: u-Charts
Example: u-Chart Answer Graph
883
Summary: C and U-Charts
Use the c-chart to monitor the number of defects (nonconformities). The application of
the c-chart requires the inspection unit to be defined clearly and the areas of
opportunity to be consistent.
The u-chart monitors the defects (nonconformities) per unit. It essentially changes the
counts into rates in cases where the area of opportunity varies from sample to sample.
The Poisson model is the statistical model that is the foundation of c and u-charts. Like
the binomial model for p and np-charts, the Poisson model has several conditions that
must be met:
The counts must be discrete events.
The counts must be clearly defined with an unambiguous area of opportunity
described.
The events must be independent.
The defects (nonconformities) must be few compared to the areas of opportunity.
Advantage
Can be used where the nonconformities from many potential sources may be
found in a single inspection.
Disadvantage
Requires a constant sample size.
884
Summary: Attribute Charts
Six Sigma Black Belts often use attribute charts to monitor the quality of a complex
unit when the data are easy to obtain. Many companies are including attribute gauging
in their measurement systems. Attribute charts are some of the first charts a SSBB
may attempt to use. The SSBB will likely discover that a critical process characteristic
needs to be monitored with a variable chart.
Click each type of attribute chart below to learn more about them and about how to
select the appropriate chart.
p-Chart
The most often used, the p-chart, uses fraction nonconforming data. It provides an
estimate of the ongoing quality level, and it is easy to use. A customer might request
using a p-chart to ensure a certain quality level is being obtained. Remember that
p-charts have the advantage of being applicable when the subgroup size varies.
np-Chart
The np-chart, a cousin of the p-chart, records the number of defective units
(nonconformances) and is more difficult to use when the subgroup size varies.
c-Chart
The c-chart monitors the number of nonconformities (defects) and requires the
inspection unit to be defined clearly and the area of opportunity to be consistent.
u-Chart
The u-chart monitors the nonconformities (defects) per unit. It essentially changes the
counts into rates in cases where the area of opportunity varies from sample to sample.
885
Causes for Variations
"Variation there will always be, between people, in output, in service, in product.
What is the variation trying to tell us?" W. Edwards Deming
Variations in output are due to one of the two types of causes: common and special
(assignable). It is estimated that 85% of all process problems are due to common
causes. Study the chart below to compare common and special causes.
886
Interpreting Control Charts
887
Process Stability
Before taking appropriate action, a SSBB must identify the state the process. In
Advanced Topics in Statistical Process Control, Donald Wheeler argues that a process
can occupy one of 4 states:
Ideal state: A predictable process fully meeting the requirements.
Threshold state: A predictable process that is not always meeting the
requirements.
Brink of chaos: An unpredictable process currently meeting the requirements.
State of chaos: An unpredictable process that is currently not meeting the
requirements.
Scroll this page to the bottom, then click each of the labels to learn more about process
states.
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888
Common Signs
889
Rules
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Statistical Process Control | Common Signs
Example: Rules
890
Pre-control Introduction
Pre-control zones
Pre-control zones include halfway between the target and each specification limit.
Each zone between the lines has colors resembling a traffic signal with green
(acceptable), yellow (alert), and red (unacceptable).
891
Pre-control Introduction
The limits of each zone are calculated based on the distribution of the
characteristic measured, not on the tolerances.
Units that fall in the yellow or red zones trigger an alarm before defects are
produced.
Pre-control rules
Rule 1:
If two parts are in the green zone, take no action – continue to run.
Rule 2:
If the first part is in the green or yellow zones, then check the second part.
If second part is in the green zone, then continue to run.
If first part is in the yellow zone and the second part is also in the yellow zone on
the same side, adjust the process.
If first part is in the yellow zone and the second part is also in the yellow zone on
the opposite side, stop and investigate the process.
Rule 3:
If any part is in the red zone, then stop.
Investigate, adjust, or reset the process.
Re-qualify the process and begin again with Rule 1.
892
Foundation of Pre-control
Two samples are taken at specified intervals that depend upon the individual process
being controlled.
If the first sample “A” is in the green zone, then the second sample can occur
within any region except red. The process is allowed to continue with no
adjustment.
If, however, “A” occurs in either yellow zone, then if the “B” sample also occurs
in either yellow zone, the process is stopped and fixed or adjusted before more
parts are made.
If the process is stopped, 5 consecutive “parts” must be made in the green zone
before the process is allowed to continue.
Roll over Page Resources at the bottom of the screen and click Pre-control
Probability Table to see the probabilities:
The sum of the probabilities of the 3 zones (red, yellow, and green) must equal 1.
Therefore, the probability that a unit falls in either of the red zones is 0.0013.
893
Pre-control Steps
1. Calculate σst
Determine the short-term sigma, which estimates the inherent machine capability.
σst + σlt = σtotal
Where:
σlt is the long-term sigma which includes factors other than the internal properties
of the machine such as:
Environment
People
Tool wear
σtotal is the total sigma estimating the variability in the final product.
894
Pre-control Steps
895
Pre-control Advantages and Disadvantages
In response to the debate about the use of pre-control charts, here are some of their
advantages and disadvantages listed below.
Advantages
Easy to implement and interpret.
Use in initial setup operations to determine if the product is centered between the
tolerances.
Easy to detect shifts in process centering or increases in process spread.
Serves as a set up plan for short production runs.
Disadvantages
Lacks information about how to reduce variability or how to return the process
into control.
Too limited to use for process with a capability ratio greater than 1.0.
Small sample size limits the ability of the chart to detect moderate to large shifts.
896
SPC Exercise
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897
Six Sigma Black Belt
Control
Advanced Statistical Process Control
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Control topic, all learners will be able to understand appropriate uses
of short-run SPC, exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA), CUSUM charts
and MAMR.
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Foundations in Quality Learning
Series: Certified Quality Engineer.
899
Short-Run SPC Introduction
900
Short-Run SPC Decision Flowchart
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Advanced Statistical Process Control | Short-Run SPC Introduction
Example: Short-Run SPC Decision Flowchart
901
Var. Data Short-Run SPC Step 1 Measurements
For short production runs with variables data, the most commonly used control
charting procedures are the X and R charts (also referred to as "nominal X and R
charts"). The following are the steps for setting up the nominal X and R charts for
short production runs:
Step 1: Measurements
For a given process, say there are k samples measured, each with n observations,
denoted by xij, as shown in the table below:
Samples Measurem
ents
1 x11, x12, x13
, ..., x1n
2 x21, x22, x
23, …, x2n
: :
k xk1, xk2, xk3
, , xkn
902
Var. Data SPC Step 1 Nominal Defined
: : :
k xk1, xk2, xk3, , Tk dk1 = xk1 – Tk
xkn dk2 = xk2 – Tk,
…
dkn = xkn – Tk
903
Var. Data SPC Step 2 Deviations Defined
:::
904
Var. Data Short-Run SPC Steps 3 - 5
where A2 is the control chart factor as shown before with subgroup size of n.
where D4 and D3 are the control chart factors for a subgroup of size n.
Assumptions
There are two basic assumptions that should be considered in order to apply the
nominal X and R charts:
The process standard deviation is approximately the same for all parts. If this is
not a valid assumption, an alternative control charting procedure should be used.
The procedure works best when the sample sizes are the same for each part
number.
905
Var. Data Short-Run SPC Example Intro
Example
The following data was collected over a two-day period on three parts. A total of ten
subgroups were measured. This process represents a short production run because it
will be running for only a five-day period. The three parts are given by A, B, and C,
each with the following nominal values:
T A = 200
T B = 70
T C = 35
The data found over a two-day period is Sample Part Type Measureme
shown the table on the right. Number nts
xi1, xi2, xi3
In this problem, k = 10 (number of
1 A 202, 205,
samples) and n = 3 (number of
201
measurements in each sample).
2 A 199, 201,
203
3 A 198, 204,
207
4 B 73, 77, 75
5 B 78, 77, 74
6 B 72, 71, 76
7 B 68, 66, 71
8 C 37, 35, 35
9 C 32, 35, 34
10 C 31, 33, 38
906
Var. Data Short-Run SPC Example Step 1
Step 1: Add the nominal values for each part to the table along with the
deviations from the nominal.
Sample Part Type Measurements Nominal Value, Deviations
Number from Nominal,
xi1, xi2, xi3 Ti
dij = xij – Ti
1 A 202, 205, 201 200 2, 5, 1
2 A 199, 201, 203 200 –1, 1, 3
3 A 198, 204, 207 200 –2, 4, 7
4 B 73, 77, 75 70 3, 7, 5
5 B 78, 77, 74 70 8, 7, 4
6 B 72, 71, 76 70 2, 1, 6
7 B 68, 66, 71 70 –2, –4, 1
8 C 37, 35, 35 35 2, 0, 0
9 C 32, 35, 34 35 –3, 0, –1
10 C 31, 33, 38 35 –4, –2, 3
907
Var. Data Short-Run SPC Example Step 2
Step 2: Using the deviations as the new data set, the average deviation and
range of the deviation can be found:
Sample Part Type Measurem Nominal Deviations Average Range,
Number ents Value, from deviations, Ri
Nominal,
xi1, xi2, xi3 Ti
di
dij = xij –
Ti
1 A 202, 205, 200 2, 5, 1 2.67 4
201
2 A 199, 201, 200 –1, 1, 3 1 4
203
3 A 198, 204, 200 –2, 4, 7 3 9
207
4 B 73, 77, 75 70 3, 7, 5 5 4
5 B 78, 77, 74 70 8, 7, 4 6.33 4
6 B 72, 71, 76 70 2, 1, 6 3 5
7 B 68, 66, 71 70 –2, –4, 1 -1.67 5
8 C 37, 35, 35 35 2, 0, 0 0.67 2
9 C 32, 35, 34 35 –3, 0, –1 -1.33 3
10 C 31, 33, 38 35 –4, –2, 3 -1 7
908
Var. Data Short-Run SPC Example Step 3
Step 3: Calculate the control limits for the average deviation, d-double
overbar:
Roll over Page Resources at the bottom of the screen and click Factors for Control
Charts to find A2 for n = 3.
909
Var. Data Short-Run SPC Example Step 4
910
Var. Data Short-Run SPC Example Step 5
911
Attribute Data Short-Run SPC Introduction
The attribute control charts for long, continuous production runs are the:
p-chart
np-chart
c-chart
u-chart
The properties behind these charts will be used to set up short-run control charts for
attribute data. The short-run control charts for attribute data are actually standardized
control charts. The attribute for the control chart of interest is standardized, and this
standardized value is plotted on a control chart. To illustrate, consider the standardized
value using the process nonconforming (i.e., p-chart):
The standardized attribute is found by subtracting the mean value and then dividing
this difference by the attribute’s standard deviation. The new value is denoted by Zi.
912
Attribute Data Short-Run SPC Properties
913
Attribute Data Short-Run SPC Properties
914
Attribute Data Short-Run SPC Control Charts
The standardized attribute control charts for short production runs are summarized
in the following table:
Attribute Control At Sta Statistic
Chart tri nda Plotted on
bu rd the Control
te Dev Chart
iati
on
of
Attr
ibut
e
p-chart
np-chart
c-chart ci
u-chart ui
915
Attribute Data Short-Run SPC Example Intro
Example
Surface defects are counted on ten metal plates, all of the same surface size. The
process the data comes from is considered a short production run. The surface defects
on the ten metal plates are shown in the following table:
Plate Number of
Number Surface
Defects
1 3
2 2
3 0
4 1
5 4
6 7
7 2
8 0
9 1
10 3
Total 23
916
Attribute Data Short-Run SPC Example Step 1
917
Attribute Data Short-Run SPC Example Step 2
2 2 7 2
3 0 8 0
4 1 9 1
5 4 10 3
918
Attribute Data Short-Run SPC Example Step 3
Note: There appears to be one observation beyond the upper control limit, and the
process appears to be out of control.
919
EWMA Introduction
According to the Glossary and Tables for Statistical Quality Control, the
exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart is a variable control chart
where each new result is averaged with the previous average value using an
experimentally determined weighting factor, λ (lambda). Click on the information
below to learn more about EWMA charts.
Equation
Begins with a group of successive averages (or individual values if the subgroup size
is 1). Each future value is a weighted average of the values that precede it. The
recursive formula is given below:
Key Points
Usually only averages plotted and range omitted.
The action signal, a single point out of limits.
Also known as the Geometric Moving Average (GMA) chart.
Used extensively in time-series modeling and in forecasting.
Allows the user to detect smaller shifts in the process than with traditional control
charts.
Ideal to use with individual observations.
920
EWMA Example
Example
A manufacturer of small electric motors has just finished a pilot run of eight motors.
One of the critical dimensions is the diameter of the shaft on the journal end. With this
limited production run, the company would like to know how consistently they are
producing the diameters. The data is given below (in millimeters).
Data Table
12
14
15
16
11
14
15
13
The data represents diameters for the first through the eighth motors, so the time
sequence of manufacture is preserved.
921
EWMA Example Steps 1 and 2
Step 2: Calculate the moving range and apply the recursive formula for
the moving average.
Moving range is the absolute difference between consecutive points. Note that the
range is always positive.
The first moving range is 2 (the absolute difference between 12 and 14), and the
second moving range is 1 (the absolute difference between 14 and 15). Thus, the
moving ranges for the entire set of data shown in the MR column below.
Applying the recursive formula yields the following:
∑x 110
x 13.
67
922
EWMA Example Step 3
where d2 is a control chart constant found by rolling over Page Resources at the
bottom of the screen and clicking Factors for Control Charts for n = 2.
Now the control limits can be calculated as follows:
923
Factors for Control Charts
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Advanced Statistical Process Control | EWMA Example Step 3
Example: Factors for Control Charts
924
EWMA Example Step 4
925
CUSUM Charts Introduction
According to the Glossary and Tables for Statistical Quality Control, the cumulative
sum control chart (CUSUM) is used with variable data and calculates the
cumulative sum of the deviations from target to detect shifts in the level of the
measurement. Click the information below to learn more about CUSUM control
charts.
Key points
May be suitable when necessary to detect small process shifts faster than with a
comparable Shewhart control chart.
The chart is effective with samples of size n = 1 where rational subgroups are
frequently of size one. Examples of utilization are in the chemical and process
industries and in discrete parts manufacturing.
The CUSUM chart can be graphical (V-mask) or tabular (algorithmic).
Unlike standard charts, all previous measurements for CUSUM charts are
included in the calculation for the latest plot.
Establishing and maintaining the CUSUM chart are complicated.
926
CUSUM Charts Introduction
V-mask
A V-mask resembles a sideways V. The chart is used to determine whether each
plotted point falls within the boundaries of the V-mark. According to The Certified Six
Sigma Black Belt Handbook by Donald W. Benbow and T.M. Kubiak, "Points falling
outside are considered to signal a shift in the process mean. Each time a point is
plotted, the V-mask is shifted to the right. The geometry associated with the
construction of the V-mask is based on a combination of specified and computed
values." The graph below shows how the formulas relate.
927
CUSUM Example
CUSUM charts are fairly complex to calculate, and software is usually used. The
following steps demonstrate the construction of the CUSUM chart. Roll over Page
Resources at the bottom of the screen and click CUSUM Chart Example Data Table
to view and/ or print while going through the steps. Click each step below to learn
about the construction of the CUSUM chart.
2.08/1.128 = 1.85
928
CUSUM Example
Enter the respective data in Columns O and P for each data point.
Note: The example shows the steps in constructing an individual average. Please refer
to Advanced Topics in Statistical Process Control by D.J. Wheeler for the subgroup
average approach.
929
MAMR Introduction
The Moving Average and Moving Range (MAMR) charts provide a graph of the
moving average of a process characteristic and the moving range. This type of chart is
used with variables data. Click the information below to more about the MAMR
chart.
Key points
May be suitable when necessary to detect smaller process shifts than with a
comparable Shewhart control chart.
Appropriate to use when data are collected periodically or it may take
considerable time to produce a single item.
Relevant when it may be desirable to dampen the effects of over control.
Constant found by rolling over Page Resources at the bottom of the screen and clicking A4
Factors for Control Charts.
Moving range chart
Constants found by rolling over Page Resources at the bottom of the screen and clicking D5 and
Factors for Control Charts. D6
Although the use of the average moving range is more popular, variability present in
the data may suggest the use of the dispersion statistics. However, according to
Wheeler in Advanced Topics in Statistical Process Control, control limits are
computed by using a variety of dispersion statistics (e.g., range, median moving range,
standard deviation) and Wheeler concludes "there is no practical difference between
any of the sets of limits."
930
MAMR Introduction
Rational subgrouping
As with any control chart, consideration to rational subgrouping remains vital. The
upcoming example assumes a rational subgroup of 1 with a moving average length of
3. If statistical and technical considerations were appropriate for a rational subgroup of
5, the average of each subgroup would constitute a point in the moving average of
length 3.
Note: Statistical software packages allow the user to set the subgroup size.
The information and example provided for MAMR charts are taken from The Certified
Six Sigma Black Belt Handbook by Donald W. Benbow and T.M. Kubiak.
931
Out-of-Control Tests Moving Range Chart
Six Sigma Black Belt | Control | Advanced Statistical Process Control | MAMR Introduction
Tip: Out-of-Control Tests Moving Range Chart
932
MAMR Example
The following steps depict the construction of the MAMR chart. Roll over Page
Resources at the bottom of the screen and click MAMR Chart Example Data Table
to view and/or print while going through the steps. Click each step below to learn
about the construction of the MAMR chart.
933
MAMR Example
934
Six Sigma Black Belt
Control
Lean Tools for Control
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Control topic, all learners will be able to apply appropriate lean tools
as they relate to the Control phase of DMAIC such as:
5S.
visual factory.
kaizen.
kanban.
poka-yoke.
total productive maintenance (TPM).
standard work.
936
Use of Lean Tools in the Control Phase
In the Control Phase of the DMAIC process, lean tools are used to monitor the
improvements implemented. Click on each lean term below to learn how the tool is
utilized in this phase.
Note: The use of lean tools in other areas of DMAIC is covered in the next lesson of
this course, Lean Enterprises.
5S
Japanese originally, 5S stands for five "s" words. The 5S method assists in the
organization of the work place the and standardization of work procedures.
Sorting (Seiri) - Keep only what is necessary in the work area. Example: A
commercial cleaning company implemented a mobile cleaning station containing
products and equipment used daily, while other products and equipment were
stored in a supply closet at each customer location.
Storage/Set in Order (Seiton) - Organize the way necessary items are kept,
making it easier to find and utilize. Example: A fast-food restaurant's walk-in
refrigeration unit contains labeled shelves and bins storing food by packaging
size and frequency of use.
Shining (Seiso) - Cleanliness of the work environment and the equipment to
facilitate a quality process and product. Example: A spa cleans and sanitizes all
equipment and tools after each customer to avoid the spread of bacteria.
Standardizing (Seiketsu) - Tasks, procedures, schedules and the persons
responsible for helping keep the workplace in a clean and organized manner are
parts of the control plan for the business unit or department. Example:
Formalized process and procedures are incorporated into the training material and
new hire training class.
Sustaining (Shitsuke) - Indoctrinate the practice of 5S into your organization's
culture until it becomes part of your standard operating procedures. Example:
New hire orientation provides each associate an employee handbook containing
principles and philosophies embracing the practice of 5S.
937
Use of Lean Tools in the Control Phase
Visual Factory
Setting up the workplace with signs, labels, color-coded markings, etc. to increase the
awareness of personnel working in different work areas and multiple shifts to ensure
consistency in a process.
Visual aids help reduce variation in the process which can ultimately lead to defects.
Example: The branch network and mail operations of a bank implemented a
color-coded payment system where each type of payment would be assigned a colored
bag to ensure proper processing.
Kaizen
Kaizen is a Japanese term that is translated to mean continuous improvement focusing
on low-cost, gradual improvement. The term is commonly used when referring to a
small incremental change. To truly sustain Kaizen for the long term, 5S and
standardized work must be in place in an organization, and the attitudes of employees
from top management down to the associate level will have to change in order for
Kaizen to be implemented successfully.
Example: A "job-swap" program is implemented in an organization where associates
"swap" positions for a half-day to learn about the up-stream or down-stream tasks in a
shared process. A debriefing session is held monthly for the participants to discuss
their experiences and to solicit ideas for improvement in the process.
938
Use of Lean Tools in the Control Phase
Kanban
Kanban is a system of continuous supply of components, supplies, and information so
that workers have what they need, where they need it, when they need it.
Kanban is a Japanese term, kan meaning "card," ban meaning "signal." The kanban
system works by signaling the need to replenish stock or materials or to produce more
of an item (also called "pull" approach).
Example: A supermarket's checkout scanners are Kanban signals sending electronic
messages to the warehouse to restock low inventory items.
Poka-yoke
Poka-yoke is a Japanese term that means "to avoid inadvertent errors." Poka-yoke is
often referred to as 'mistake-proofing'. A poka-yoke device is one that prevents
incorrect parts from being made or assembled, or easily identifies a flaw or error and
helps to eliminate variations in process.
Example: A financial institution's loan booking system requires all data entry fields
on a screen to be populated before allowing the associate to move to the next screen,
preventing an incomplete account set-up.
939
Use of Lean Tools in the Control Phase
Standard Work
Identification and agreement on the optimal way to perform each task/step in a process
becomes the standard operating procedure or standard work procedure. Standard
work contributes to process control by minimizing the variation in the product flowing
through the process. There are three basic elements involved:
Takt time – matches the time to deliver a service, produce a part or finished
product to the pace of sales and is the basis for allocating work among workers.
Standard in-process inventory – the minimum number of items or parts, including
units in machines, required to keep a cell or process moving.
Sequence – the order in which associates perform tasks at various processes.
Example: Workstations for associates in a call center were standardized with forms
and files allowing employees to use any available area.
940
Six Sigma Black Belt
Control
Measurement System Re-analysis
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Control topic, all learners will be able to:
understand the need to improve measurement system capability as process
capability improves.
evaluate the use of control measurement systems and ensure that measurement
capability is sufficient for its intended use.
Portions of this topic were taken from the ASQ Six Sigma Green Belt web-based
Certification Preparation Course and the ASQ Foundations in Quality Learning
Series: Certified Quality Engineer.
942
Measuring System Improvement
After implementing solutions, we must re-assess the process and determine if the
process has been statistically improved. Various tools such as measurement system
capability re-analysis, post improvement capability analysis, graphical data
analysis and statistical testing are used to answer the question, "Did the
improvements have a significant impact?" Statistically validated outcomes will help
demonstrate our process improvements. Click each term below to learn more.
943
Measuring System Improvement
944
Measuring System Improvement
Statistical testing
Improvement validation using statistical testing comparing the “before” process to
the improved process is necessary to see if a statistically significant gain has been
realized from implementing the proposed solutions.
The two-proportion test example in the Analyze lesson of this course provides an
example.
945
Measuring System Improvement
946
Control Measurement Systems
The assurance of highest quality requires accurate equipment to measure and test the
quality of products or services. Measurement systems (sometimes referred to as
"measurement capability systems") test the quality of products and services. During
the Control Phase, "sustaining the gain" is a goal, and the measurement system helps
achieve this goal. Listed below are terms and types of measurement systems used in
the Control Phase of DMAIC. Click below to learn more.
Measurement accuracy
A true value is established and the distribution of measurement deviations from the
known value is tracked. A measurement system is deemed "inaccurate" when the value
is consistently incorrect or over- or under-estimated.
Gauge Repeatability
Gauge repeatability (a.k.a., "equipment variation") is the variation in measurements
obtained when one operator uses the same gauge for measuring the identical
characteristics of the same parts.
Can the same operator get the same measurement using the same gauge on the same
part in two or more trials?
Gauge Reproducibility
Gauge reproducibility (a.k.a., "appraiser variation") is the variation in the average of
the measurements made by different operators using the same gage while measuring
the identical characteristic on the same parts.
Can two different people get the same measurement using the same gauge?
947
Control Measurement Systems
948
Control Measurement Systems
Destructive Testing
Destructive testing uses techniques such as tensile testing (determining the strength
of a material by subjecting a test specimen to an increasing pull until rupture occurs)
which can inflict damage or impair the usefulness of the product tested. Examples of
destructive testing include:
testing a flashbulb
testing a bullet
cross-sectioning a weld
An obvious shortcoming of destructive testing is if all units are tested (damaged),
there will be no product left. Destructive testing, therefore, relies on acceptance
sampling, the process of
Taking a sample out of a group or lot of items.
Evaluating the items taken.
Making a decision to accept or reject the lot based on pre-determined criteria.
Note: Measurement Systems are described in the Measure lesson of this course.
949
Control Exercise
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950
Lesson Summary
Once the improvements have been selected and implemented, the Control phase
provides tools to continue measuring the process and evaluating the results using:
statistical process control (SPC).
advanced statistical process control (SPC).
lean tools
measurement system re-analysis
A successful project is one in which the solutions are implemented and monitored to
prevent the process from reverting to the previous pre-improvement state. The goal of
the control phase is to "sustain the gain."
951
Lesson Bibliography
Bibliography
American Society for Quality. ASQ’s Foundations in Quality Learning Series:
Certified Quality Engineer. Milwaukee, WI: ASQ, 2000.
American Society for Quality. Six Sigma Green Belt Certification Preparation Course,
Version 1 (web-based course). Milwaukee, WI, 2006.
American Society for Quality. Quality Process Analyst Certification Preparation
Course, Version 1 (web-based course). Milwaukee, WI, 2006.
ASQ Statistics Division. Kittlitz, Rudy, editor. Glossary and Tables for Statistical
Quality Control. 4th ed. Milwaukee, WI: ASQ Quality Press, 2005.
Benbow, Donald, Roger Berger, Ahmad Elshennawy, and H. Fred Walker, editors.The
Certified Quality Engineer Handbook. Milwaukee, WI: ASQ Quality Press, 2002.
Benbow, Donald W. and T.M. Kubiak. The Certified Six Sigma Black Belt Handbook.
Milwaukee, WI: ASQ Quality Press, 2005.
Breyfogle, Forrest W. III. Implementing Six Sigma: Smarter Solutions® Using
Statistical Methods. 2nd ed. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2003.
Montgomery, Douglas C. Introduction to Statistical Quality Control. 5th ed. Hoboken,
NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2005.
Pries, Kim H. Six Sigma for the Next Millennium: A CSSBB Guidebook. Milwaukee,
WI: ASQ Quality Press, 2006.
Pyzdek, Thomas. The Quality Engineering Handbook. 2nded. Boca Raton, FL: Taylor
& Francis Group, 2003.
Pyzdek, Thomas. The Six Sigma Handbook: A Complete Guide for Green Belts, Black
Belts, and Managers at All Levels, 2nded. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2003.
Wheeler, Donald J. Advanced Topics in Statistical Process Control. Knoxville,TN:
SPC Press, 1995.
952
Six Sigma Black Belt
Lean Enterprise
Lesson Introduction
As you have learned, DMAIC is the primary methodology for Six Sigma. However,
other process improvement methodologies have been adapted into the Six Sigma
process. Lean enterprise, also called "lean manufacturing," is one of these additional
methodologies.
While Six Sigma focuses on reduction of variation, lean enterprise focuses on
elimination of waste. Waste is defined as any activity that consumes resources, but
creates no value. In addition to waste elimination, lean enterprise examines the entire
process to ensure more efficient flow. The concept of lean enterprise is based on two
assumptions: Elimination of waste improves performance and many minor
improvements can lead to perfection. To better understand this concept, the ASQ Body
of Knowledge provides the following topics:
Lean concepts
Describe the theory of constraints.
Describe concepts such as value, value chain, flow, pull and perfection.
Describe the CFM concept.
Identify these activities in terms inventory, space, test inspection, rework,
transportation and storage.
Describe how cycle -time reduction can be used to identify defects and
non-value-added activities using kaizen type methods to reduce waste of space,
inventory, labor and distance.
Lean tools
Define, select, and apply tools such as visual factory, kanban, poka-yoke,
standard work and SMED in areas outside of DMAIC-Control.
Total productive maintenance (TPM)
Understand the concept of TPM.
954
Lesson Overview
The tools and objectives of the Lean Enterprise lesson are illustrated below.
955
Six Sigma Black Belt
Lean Enterprise
Lean Concepts
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Lean Enterprise topic, all learners will be able to:
describe the theory of constraints.
describe lean-thinking concepts such as value, value chain, flow, pull and
perfection.
describe the continuous flow manufacturing (CFM) concept.
identify non-value-added activities in terms inventory, space, test inspection,
rework, transportation and storage.
describe how cycle-time reduction can be used to identify defects and
non-value-added activities using kaizen type methods to reduce waste of space,
inventory, labor and distance.
957
Theory of Constraints
In contrast to variation reduction (Six Sigma) or waste removal (Lean), the theory of
constraints (TOC) focuses on increasing overall system throughput by first paying
attention to the "weakest link" of the system.
A constraint is any limitation that prevents an organization from moving toward its
goal. A constraint may be physical and internal (a machine, facility or policy) or
non-physical and external (market conditions or demand for a product).
According to H. William Dettmer in Goldratt's Theory of Constraints, "This is the
beginning of the prescriptive part of the Theory of Constraints. Goldratt has developed
five sequential steps to concentrate improvement efforts on the component that is
capable of producing the most positive impact on the system."
Click each step below to learn more.
958
Theory of Constraints
959
TOC Metrics
960
Lean Thinking
As mentioned earlier, Six Sigma uses the DMAIC methodology to reduce variation
and defects; lean enterprise thinking uses the methodology below.
Click each step below to learn more.
Define value
Defining value is the first step to creating a lean enterprise. Ultimately, value must be
determined by the customer. The customer wants the right product, with the right
capabilities, for the right price. Therefore, it is important to talk to the customers to
find out what they really want.
961
Value Stream Mapping
Roll over Page Resources to see an example of a value stream map and frequently
used mapping symbols.
962
Continuous Flow Manufacturing
CFM Goals
To make one part at a time, correctly, all the time
To do so without unplanned interruptions
To do so without lengthy queue times
CFM Concepts
Tasks are reduced to their simplest components.
Opportunities for machine- or operator-error are reduced.
Done correctly, there is a continuous flow of activity between shop operators and
the manufactured product.
CFM is a generative manufacturing method created to continuously increase
output, improve quality and grow sales and profits, without the need for
constantly enlarging production or support staff.
1-piece flow is an extremely efficient way to manufacture goods, provided the
correct physical structures have been set up to support its particular needs.
963
CFM Compared to Batch Production
964
Non-Value-Added Activities
Overproduction
Overproduction is visible as storage of material: producing more than demanded or
producing it before it is needed. Overproduction is the result of producing to
anticipated demand: making more, making earlier or making faster than is required by
the next process.
What are some causes of overproduction waste?
Just-in-case logic
Misuse of automation
Long process setup-up times
Unleveled scheduling
Unbalanced work load
Redundant inspections
Waiting (Queuing)
Periods of inactivity in a downstream process occur because an upstream activity does
not take place or deliver on time. For example, waiting occurs when a worker is ready
for the next operation, but remains idle due to machine downtime, lack of parts or line
stoppages.
What are some causes of waiting waste?
Delayed shipments
Unbalanced work load
Unplanned maintenance
Long process set-up times
Misuse of automation
Upstream quality problems
Unleveled scheduling
965
Non-Value-Added Activities
Inventory
Inventory consists of excess materials not directly required for current customer
orders. Examples are parts, raw materials, work-in-process (WIP), supplies and
finished goods. Inventory is considered waste since it does not add value to the
product. Costs are incurred for environmental control, record keeping, storage and
retrieval. Although some inventory may be necessary, excess inventory will run the
risk of gathering dust, deteriorating, becoming obsolete, getting wet or being damaged
in handling.
What are some causes of inventory waste?
Protecting the company from inefficiencies and unexpected problems
Product complexity
Unleveled scheduling
Poor market forecast
Unbalanced workload
Unreliable shipments by suppliers
Misunderstood communications
Processing
Processing waste is due to additional steps or unnecessary activities in a process, such
as rework, reprocessing or rehandling. Processing wastes should be minimized by
asking why a specific step is needed and why a specific product is produced. All
unnecessary processing steps should be eliminated.
What are some causes of processing waste?
Product changes without process changes
Just-in-case logic
Undefined customer requirements
Over-processing to accommodate downtime
Lack of communication
Redundant approvals
Extra copies/excessive information
Transportation
Transportation waste involves unnecessary movement of materials, such as the
movement of "Work in Process" from one operation to another. Such examples
involve the use of forklifts, conveyors and trucks in inefficient ways, making
production more costly and complex.
What are some causes of transportation waste?
Poor plant layout
Poor understanding of the process flow for production
Large batch sizes
Long lead times
Large storage areas
966
Non-Value-Added Activities
Motion
Motion waste is the inefficient and unnecessary movement of workers and machines.
Workers should not have to walk excessively, lift heavy loads, bend abnormally, reach
awkwardly or repeat motions when using machinery.
What are some causes of motion waste?
Poor people/machine effectiveness
Inconsistent work methods
Unfavorable facility or cell layout
Poor workplace organization and housekeeping
Extra "busy" movements while waiting
Defective products
This waste involves products or aspects of your service that do not meet customer
expectations or requirements, resulting in refund, rework or repair.
What are some causes of defective products?
Weak process control
Poor quality
Poor equipment maintenance
Inadequate training/work instructions
Poor product design
Misunderstood customer needs
Underutilized workers
This waste occurs when workers' abilities are not used effectively.
What are some causes of underutilized workers?
The business culture
Poor hiring practices
Low or no investment in training
Low pay, high turnover strategy
967
Cycle-Time Reduction
Cycle-time is the amount of time needed to complete a single task or activity for the
product or service. Cycle-times may vary by task; therefore, it is beneficial to show a
range and average on the value stream map. If cycle-time variation can be reduced, the
process becomes more predictable.
Often, cycle-time can be reduced by breaking down a single task and analyzing the
amount of time that it takes to complete each sub-activity of that task. After this
breakdown, it is easier to tell which sub-activities may be contributing to a slower
cycle-time. Ultimately, non-value-added activities can be eliminated and value-added
activities can be performed more quickly and efficiently.
Kaizen is a Japanese term that is translated to mean "continuous improvement." Many
companies have successfully used workshops called kaizen "events" or "blitzes" to
drive dramatic improvements in cycle-times, inventory levels, changeover times and
overall quality.
Successful kaizen workshops require three key components:
Selecting the right project and boundaries
Empowering the proper team
Planning for follow-up
968
Kaizen Blitz
A kaizen blitz starts with a specific problem to solve. The focus area is best defined
through a value stream mapping process. Any process might be a target for a kaizen
blitz, but it is best to start with one having great customer impact or one with
frustrated workers.
Once an area for improvement is targeted, upper management - often with the help of
a trained kaizen facilitator - initiates the blitz. Management gives the kaizen team a
mandate to change a process or to create and test a new one, along with the power to
make any necessary decisions along the way.
Depending on the kaizen's scope, a cross-functional team with 5-10 representatives is
ideal. Team members should include the key people who are closest to the work and
live with the process. It is also just as important to include people who do not work or
live with the process every day: like representatives from finance, design engineering,
marketing and other areas in the company. Outside eyes can often more easily
question existing methods and provide a fresh and objective view of too familiar
problems.
Together, the team observes the activity and raises questions or challenges the overall
process. Typically, the team's goals will include:
Reducing cycle-time
Meet Takt Time
Reducing space
Reducing inventory
Maintaining a safe work environment
The kaizen activity usually results in incremental improvements that are easily
sustainable. In many cases, the team implements a change and studies the results
before making a recommendation.
969
Takt Time versus Cycle Time
Takt is the German word for metronome. Takt Time enables your organization to
balance the pace of its production outputs with the rate of customer demand. The term
Takt Time, is used to indicate the desired rhythm of the process.
The formula for Takt Time is:
Takt Time = available resources (hours) / demand (units)
For example, if a product has a demand of 64 units per day, and the work day consists
of two shifts (16 hours), then the Takt Time to produce each unit is 15 minutes.
To meet this demand, the combined cycle-time for each activity within a process must
be equal to, or less than, the Takt Time.
970
Six Sigma Black Belt
Lean Enterprise
Lean Tools
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Lean Enterprise topic, all learners will be able to define, select and
apply lean tools such as visual factory, kanban, poka-yoke, standard work and SMED
in areas outside of DMAIC-Control.
972
Visual Factory
Several tools can be used during the DMAIC process to help build a lean enterprise.
One such tool is a visual factory. The intention is to set up the workplace with signs,
labels, color-coded markings, etc., to increase the awareness of the workers in terms
of:
Daily production
Maintenance items
Goals
Quality metrics
Processes and procedures
Visual applications help keep things running as efficiently as they were designed to
run.
973
Visual Factory Benefits
974
Visual Factory Exercise
Based on the information you learned about visual factories, place each tool in its
correct location on the tool board.
In this example, what are the benefits to having a specified spot for each tool? Roll
over Page Resources, and click Possible Visual Factory Answers.
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975
Possible Visual Factory Answers
Six Sigma Black Belt | Lean Enterprise | Lean Tools | Visual Factory Exercise
Example: Possible Visual Factory Answers
Possible Answers
Since the arrangement is defined, all tools will fit easily on the board at the end
of the day.
Each worker will know exactly where to find a particular tool when it is needed.
Workers will be able to tell easily if a tool is missing or broken as they are always
on display.
976
Kanban
Another tool used to create a lean enterprise is a kanban system. Kanban is a system
of a continuous supply of components, parts and supplies so that workers have what
they need, where they need it and when they need it.
Kanban is a Japanese term: kan meaning "card", ban meaning "signal." The kanban
system works by signaling the need to replenish stock or materials or to produce more
of an item. Kanban can be done using cards as the signaling component. In a simple
kanban system, an empty box, container or pallet can signal the need for more
supplies. The supplier or warehouse should only deliver components to the production
line when signaled.
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977
Kanban Benefits
978
Kanban Example
In a plant that manufactures widgets, a 42" stem-bolt is needed. The stem-bolts arrive
on pallets (each pallet holding 100 stem-bolts). When the pallet is empty, the person
assembling the widgets takes the card attached to the pallet and sends it to the
stem-bolt manufacturing area as an order to manufacture and send another pallet of
stem-bolts. A new pallet of stem-bolts is not made until the card is received. This is
kanban in its simplest form. A more realistic example would involve two pallets. The
widget assembler would start working from the second pallet while new stem-bolts
were being made to refill the first pallet.
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979
Poka-Yoke
Because people can make mistakes even in inspection, mistake-proofing often relies
on a sensing mechanism called poka-yoke.
Poka-yoke is a Japanese term that means "to avoid inadvertent errors." A poka-yoke
device is one that prevents incorrect parts from being made, assembled or identifies a
flaw or error.
Often referred to as "error-proofing", poka-yoke is actually the first step in
error-proofing a system. Error-proofing is a manufacturing technique of preventing
errors by designing the manufacturing process, equipment and tools so that an
operation literally cannot be performed incorrectly.
980
Poka-Yoke Examples
Examples of Poka-Yoke
Error-proofing is the practice of striving for zero defects using techniques, standards
and devices that prevent errors from being made. Examples of preventative measures
include:
Childproof caps on prescription medicine bottles
Different size fuel dispensing nozzles to prevent cross-fueling
Design of parts so that they cannot be exchanged by mistake
Color-coded parts
Error-proofing also uses shutdowns, controls or warnings to detect errors and stop
them before they become defects. Examples of detection measures include:
Automatic shutoff on coffee pots and other small appliances
Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors
Warning buzzer when blood pressure drops below acceptable levels during
surgery
The key to effective error-proofing is determining when and where defect-causing
conditions arise and then figuring out how to detect or prevent these conditions every
time.
981
5S
Another tool that can be applied in a lean enterprise is the 5S structure. Originated in
Japan, 5S stands for five "s" words, that assist in work place organization and the
standardization of work procedures.
Click each step below to learn about the five methods and see examples of each. The
words in parentheses are the original Japanese terms.
Sort (Seiri)
Eliminate unnecessary items from the workplace.
Method: Tag items believed to be unnecessary are moved to a central location and
reused or eliminated.
Example: In a bank, each teller station is stocked with a working supply of commonly
used forms, such as deposit tickets and savings account withdrawal forms. Extra forms
are stored in the supply closet.
Shine (Seiso)
Clean and maintain
Method: "Clean thoroughly, clean often." Establish a daily cleaning routine. Identify
maintenance issues along the way.
Example: In any corporation, conference rooms are cleaned and straightened after
each meeting so the rooms are immediately ready for the next scheduled meeting. All
AV equipment is checked for maintenance needs.
Standardize (Seiketsu)
Establish best practices.
Method: Establish a routine, identify ownership and solicit the input of employees
who are doing the work.
Example: In a hospital, the responsibility of nurse scheduling is given to the senior
nurse who best understands the needs of each department balanced with the need to
retain quality nurses.
Sustain (Shitsuke)
Continue the improvement over the life of the company.
Method: Change the culture of clutter. Establish a new status quo of workplace
organization and reward accordingly.
Example: A company implements a program to instill a continuous improvement
mindset and rewards employee suggestions that reduce waste or enhance profitability.
982
Standard Operations (Work)
The lean concept standard work maintains that each activity should be performed the
same way every time. Standard work is the term used to systematize how a part is
processed, and includes man-machine interactions and studies of human motion.
Standard work operations are most efficiently and safely completed with all tasks
organized in the best known sequence, using the most effective combination of these
resources:
Man
Materials
Methods
Machines
Mother Nature
Measurements
Within standard work, each operation is broken down into small pieces and analyzed.
Each worker is then given all the tools to make the part quickly, with the highest
quality. The process is documented in writing and with photographs. Charts and
posters at the work area are often used to reinforce the methods.
To have the greatest impact, standardization must occur not only within the area but
also across the entire company. Standardization includes paint and color standards for
safety elements, equipment operation instructions, floor markings, interior and exterior
building markings, material labeling, etc. By creating standards and defining
procedures, we achieve commonality across the entire organization.
983
Standard Operations (Work) Benefits
984
SMED
Single minute exchange of dies (SMED) is a system used to reduce changeover time
and improve timely response to demand. Developed by Toyota, SMED, is also
referred to as the "Toyota Production System." SMED involves a set of procedures to
be followed for a successful exchange of dies.
The goal of SMED should be to develop a production system that gets as close as
possible to making only what the customer wants, when the customer wants it,
throughout the production chain. The resulting production system becomes a strong,
flexible operation adaptable to changes.
According to Donald W. Benbow and T.M. Kubiak in The Certified Six Sigma Black
Belt Handbook, "it was common practice in metal-forming industries to produce
thousands of one part before changing the machine's dies and then producing
thousands of another part. This practice often produced vast inventories of work in
process and associated waste. These procedures were justified because changing
machine dies took several hours."
Many companies produce goods in large lots simply because long changeover times
make it costly for products to change frequently. However, when methods are in place
to accommodate quick changeover, setups can be done as often as needed. Quick
changeovers mean that products can be made cost effectively in smaller lots.
Before a setup operation can be improved, it is best to analyze how it is currently
performed. Three preliminary steps involved in a setup analysis include:
Videotaping the entire setup operation
Asking setup personnel to talk about what they do
Studying the time and motions involved in each step of the setup
985
Using SMED
986
Six Sigma Black Belt
Lean Enterprise
Total Productive Maintenance
Learning Objectives
At the end of this Lean Enterprise topic, all learners will be able to understand the
concept of total productive maintenance (TPM).
988
Total Productive Maintenance
989
TPM Pillars
The following seven strategies are the most common for implementing TPM
effectively. They form the pillars to foundation of any TPM effort. It is not necessary
to implement all these strategies at once. The company must decide which of these
strategies will have the most positive and immediate results.
Click each strategy below to learn more.
Autonomous Maintenance
Allow machine operators to take responsibility for routine maintenance tasks, freeing
up skilled maintenance workers to work on other TPM initiatives. The result is more
knowledgeable machine operators who can effectively communicate equipment
problems to maintenance staff.
Planned Maintenance
Have a systematic approach to all maintenance activities. This involves identifying the
preventive maintenance required for each piece of equipment, creating standards for
condition-based maintenance, and setting responsibilities for operating and
maintenance staff.
Technical Training
Train staff to improve their skills. This includes training on maintenance, operations
and troubleshooting. In addition, make certain the staff understand why these skills are
important.
Quality Maintenance
Focus on eliminating non-conformances in a systematic manner, much like focused
improvement. Understand what parts of the equipment affect product quality in order
to eliminate current and potential quality concerns.
Office TPM
The goal is to improve productivity and efficiency in the administrative functions and
identify and eliminate losses. Analyze processes and procedures to determine
opportunities for increasing office automation.
Safety/Environmental Management
Focus on creating a safe workplace that is not endangered by the processes or
procedures. The goal is zero accidents, zero health damage and zero fires.
990
TPM Benefits
991
Lean Enterprise Pyramid Game
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992
Lesson Summary
The primary focus of a lean enterprise is to eliminate waste. As you have learned,
waste is defined as any activity that consumes resources, but creates no value. The
emphasis is on making the entire process flow more efficiently rather than improving
specific sub-processes. This lesson emphasized the following concepts and tools as a
knowledge base to use for creating a lean enterprise:
Lean concepts
Theory of constraints (TOC) focuses on increasing overall system throughput by first
paying attention to the "weakest link" of the system.
Lean thinking describes the methodology for creating a lean enterprise and includes
the following steps:
Define value
Identify the value stream
Enhance value flow
Maximize customer pull
Optimize the process
Continuous flow manufacturing (CFM) is a technique used to manufacture
components in a cellular environment. The cell is a group of workstations, machines
or equipment arranged such that a product can be processed progressively from one
workstation to another without having to wait for a batch to be completed and without
additional handling between operations.
Non-value-added activities describe an action in a process, procedure or service that
does not add value to the customer. Non-value-added activities are typically described
in terms of waste producers that fall into the following eight categories:
Overproduction
Waiting
Inventory
Processing
Transportation
Motion
Defective products
Underutilized workers
Cycle-time is the amount of time needed to complete a single task or activity for the
product or service. If cycle-time variation can be reduced, the process becomes more
predictable.
Lean tools
Several lean tools can be used during the DMAIC process that can help build a lean
enterprise.
Visual factory
Kanban
Poka-yoke
Standard work
SMED
993
Lesson Summary
994
Lesson Bibliography
Bibliography
American Society for Quality. Six Sigma Green Belt Certification Preparation Course,
Version 1 (web-based course). Milwaukee, WI, 2006.
Benbow, Donald W. and T.M. Kubiak. The Certified Six Sigma Black Belt Handbook.
Milwaukee, WI: ASQ Quality Press, 2005.
Dettmer, H. William. Goldratt's Theory of Constraints: A System's Approach to
Continuous Improvement. Milwaukee, WI: ASQ Quality Press, 1997.
MacInnes, Richard L. The Lean Enterprise Memory JoggerTM. Salem, NH: Goal/QPC,
2002.
995
Six Sigma Black Belt
Design for Six Sigma
Lesson Introduction
Design for Six Sigma (DFSS) strives to prevent defects by transforming customer
wants and perceptions into reliable, defect-free product or process. DFSS provides a
process and structure for delivering Six Sigma quality products to the customer. To
better understand this concept, the ASQ Body of Knowledge provides the following
topics:
DFSS Introduction
Introduce the purpose of DFSS.
Quality function deployment (QFD)
Demonstrate a quality function deployment tool for analyzing the customer’s
needs and linking to the technical requirements needed to satisfy the customer.
Robust design and process
Understand the role functional requirements have within design.
Examine strategies for incorporating robust design concepts into the design
process; especially strategies for reducing noise.
Understand the concepts of tolerance design and statistical tolerancing.
Calculate tolerances using process capability data.
Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA)
Understand the terminology, purpose and use of scale criteria (including risk
priority number (RPN)) for FMEA and apply to processes, products or services.
Understand the distinction between and interpret data associated with design
FMEA (DFMEA) and process FMEA (PFMEA).
Design for X (DFX)
Understand design constraints such as design for cost, design for
manufacturability and producibility, design for test and design for maintainability.
Special design tools
Understand the concept of special design tools such as the theory of inventive
problem-solving (TRIZ) and axiomatic design (conceptual structure robustness).
997
Lesson Overview
The tools and objectives of the DFSS lesson are illustrated below.
998
Six Sigma Black Belt
Design for Six Sigma
Overview
Introducing DFSS
1000
Committing to DFSS
1001
DFSS and Six Sigma
Six Sigma aims to improve an existing process by reducing variation or centering the
mean. After organizations introduce new designs, Six Sigma professionals return to
solve problems similar to the previous process. To generate the right product at the
right time at the right cost, DFSS incorporates the Six Sigma problem-solving
technique into the design process. DFSS is the practice of designing any product,
service or process to satisfy customer and internal business requirements at a Six
Sigma level of performance.
1002
DFSS and ROI
1003
Using DFSS
Black Belts use DMAIC to address problems to reduce costs and improve quality by
reducing variability or shifting the mean. Even then, a process (given its design) has a
maximum level of performance. Entitlement refers to the best performance level for a
process, product, service, or transaction.
What happens if future customer requirements exceed the current process capability?
Since customers desire more performance and the process is operating at entitlement,
process redesign is necessary; thus the need for DFSS arises. In the interaction below,
click Next Step to learn about a process link between DMAIC and DFSS.
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1004
DMADV
As DMAIC guides the Six Sigma Black Belt through an existing process, the stages
for DFSS are: Define-Measure-Analyze-Design-Verify (DMADV). Used when
designing a new process, product, service or transaction, DMADV works closely with
obtaining information and analyzing the voice of the customer in order to meet
customer requirements. DFSS contains such a large body of knowledge for each stage
that DFSS is a course in itself. The purpose of this lesson is to provide an overview of
DFSS.
1005
DFSS Teaming
When your team develops a new design from start to finish, engineering should not be
the only department involved. From inputs such as learning training needs from
human resources, patent infringement advice from the legal department or money
matters from the finance department, your team can benefit and derive important
information. Using cross-functional team members from other departments is critical
to the smooth operation and the success of DFSS.
On the product design side, DFSS projects include:
Subject matter experts (SMEs).
Six Sigma Black Belts and Green Belts as team leaders.
Master Black Belts as mentors and trainers.
Project champions as process owners and roadblock breakers.
1006
DFSS or Six Sigma
For each situation listed below, select the best approach for dealing with that situation.
After clicking a box, either a check mark will display (correct answer) or an X
(incorrect answer).
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1007
Six Sigma Black Belt
Design for Six Sigma
Quality Function Deployment
Learning Objectives
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Quality Function Deployment
Concept: Learning Objectives
At the end of this DFSS topic, all learners will be able to analyze a completed quality
function deployment (QFD) matrix.
1009
Customer Input
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Quality Function Deployment
Concept: Customer Input
1010
QFD Principles
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Quality Function Deployment
Concept: QFD Principles
1011
QFD Overview
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Quality Function Deployment
Task: QFD Overview
As a tool for use by the whole organization, QFD is a course in itself. QFD links VOC
to existing quality. QFD is a methodology translating customer needs and
requirements (voice of the customer) into the production of yourproducts and services.
Introduced by Yoji Akao (1966), QFD is a structured, disciplined methodology and
qualitative tool used to identify the customers' quality requirements and translate them
into important design targets.
Benefits
Creates a customer-driven environment
Establishes priorities and improves quality and customer value
Prioritizes process improvements
Forces early communication, planning, and decision-making
Involves the entire company and bridges departments
Provides documentation for the decision-making process
Use When
Analyzing customer requirements
Developing a new product, process, service or transaction
Improving a product, process, service or transaction
Interpreting customer requirements into organizational methodology
1012
House of Quality
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Quality Function Deployment
Concept: House of Quality
The House of Quality (named for its house-shaped matrix appearance) is one of the
most important matrices in QFD. Early in the planning phase, the House of Quality
clarifies the relationship between customer needs and product features. It helps
correlate market or customer requirements and analyses of competitive products with
higher-level technical and product characteristics to identify the strong and weak
relationships. The House of Quality diagram makes it possible to bring together
several factors into a single figure.
1013
Left Wing and Attic Matrix
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Quality Function Deployment
Concept: Left Wing and Attic Matrix
The left wing, the starting point for constructing the House of Quality, serves as the
voice of the customer by listing previously identified customers' needs and
requirements. Included is a scale to rate the importance of each need and serve as a
multiplying factor when determining rankings. Use a 1-10 scale, where:
10 = extremely important or critical to the customer.
1 = not very important to the customer.
Note: Not all customer needs merit a 10.
The attic, serving as the voice of the company, lists the engineering characteristics
(technical requirements) designers believe are required to meet the customer’s specific
needs. The center is a matrix identifying the interrelationships between the customer
needs and the technical requirements. For example, how significant is size if the
product is small and light weight? Designers evaluate the interrelationships by a
variety of methods, including point values as 10-to-0 and 9-3-1, or symbols. The
example below uses symbols to designate the significances.
1014
The Roof
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Quality Function Deployment
Concept: The Roof
After identifying the technical requirements and completing the matrix between the
requirements and the needs, the roof provides an area for designers to rate the
requirements to each other. This analysis identifies the key points where improvement
in the technical requirement could benefit the product.
The analysis revolves around a key question: Does improving one requirement
automatically improve or deteriorate another requirement? For instance, note the
following relationships from the matrix below:
Improving yield has a strongly positive relationship with improving process
capability.
Improving yield has a strongly negative relationship with improving rate.
Improving yield has no effect on the cost to maintain.
1015
The Basement
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Quality Function Deployment
Concept: The Basement
1016
The Basement
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Quality Function Deployment
Concept: The Basement
1017
Right Wing: Customer and the Competition
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Quality Function Deployment
Concept: Right Wing: Customer and the Competition
The right wing allows designers to compare their product to the competition in terms
of the customer’s requirements. For instance, note the following comparison between
UsDot relative to the positioning of the competition (G-Wiz and J-co Com).
UsDot rates below both competitors in terms of reproducibility and the ability to
verify; both of which are of maximum importance to the customer.
UsDot’s ability to verify rating is significantly lower than both competitors are,
and the customer highly values this characteristic.
UsDot product has the highest reliability.
1018
Analyzing
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Quality Function Deployment
Concept: Analyzing
The matrix is actually examining two relationships. In the graphic below, the lower
grid shows the relationship between the individual customer requirements and each
engineering characteristic. Some professionals and organizations create a matrix using
a series of symbols. Whether circles, diamonds, triangles, circles of different colors,
pluses and minuses, the house of quality shows the relationship between the customer
needs and the technical requirements.
Within the roof, however, the grid is showing the relationships between the
engineering characteristics. Regardless of the recording technique:
A positive relationship shows both technical requirements can be improved at the
same time.
A negative relationship means that as one requirement improves, the other
worsens.
A blank means that a change has no effect.
To practice analyzing a house of quality matrix, roll over Page Resources, and then
click House of Quality Exercise. To check your answers, close the House of Quality
Exercise window, roll over Page Resources, and click House of Quality Answers.
1019
House of Quality Exercise
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Quality Function Deployment | Analyzing
Example: House of Quality Exercise
Study the matrix below to answer the following questions. To check your answers,
close this window, roll over Page Resources, and click Answers.
1. What is the relationship between Easy to Click and Button Resistance?
2. What is the relationship between Easy to Clean and Product Dimensions?
3. What is the relationship between Energy Needed to Move and Sealed Ball?
4. Which customer requirement does the company believe they are the best at in
their field?
5. Compared to their main competitor, which customer requirement is the company
worst at?
6. How does this company compare with its competition in terms of its products
being Easy to Clean?
1020
House of Quality Answers
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Quality Function Deployment | Analyzing
Example: House of Quality Answers
1. What is the relationship between Easy to Click and Button Resistance? Strong
positive relationship.
2. What is the relationship between Easy to Clean and Product Dimensions? No
relationship.
3. What is the relationship between Button Resistance and Sealed Ball? Negative
relationship.
4. Which customer requirement does the company believe they are the best at in
their field? Contouring the mouse to the hand.
5. Compared to their main competitor, which customer requirement is the company
worst at? Mouse does not jam (thus implying their mouse has problems
jamming).
6. How does this company compare with its competition in terms of their products
being Easy to Clean? In the middle: better than B, but not as good as A (who is
the best).
1021
Numerical Scoring
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Quality Function Deployment
Concept: Numerical Scoring
In order to quantify ratings, some quality professionals use values instead of symbols.
The preferred scale depends on the individual and the organization. Common scales
include 5-to-0, 10-to-0, 5-3-1, and 9-3-1.
In the below QFD matrix, the Few Errors characteristic has been calculated for you
as an example (rating of 46). Given the information on this QFD matrix, calculate the
weighted rating for each characteristic, and then prioritize the customer’s needs. To
check your work, roll over Page Resources and click QFD Answer.
1022
QFD Answer
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Quality Function Deployment | Numerical Scoring
Example: QFD Answer
To determine the weighted rating of a column, multiply the value by the customer
importance value, and then add the column. The weighted ratings are 65, 21, 36, 46,
35, 53, and 70.
Sample calculation: Adaptable Content: 65 = (5 * 4) + (0 * 2) + (4 * 5) + (0 * 4) + ( 5
* 5)
Prioritize Characteristics: Current BoK (70), Adaptable Content (65), Moveable
Sections (53), Few Errors (46), Compact Size (36), Low Price (35), and Durability
(21)
1023
Houses of Quality in DFSS
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Quality Function Deployment
Concept: Houses of Quality in DFSS
Since using the QFD process is important to completing the design from customer
requirements to manufacturing characteristics, designers generally use a series of
matrices. When progressing from one matrix to another, you will notice the features
along the roof of the previous matrix become a side feature of the next matrix. For
example, see the location of Technical Characteristics in the first and second images.
By continually narrowing the process and fine-tuning the choices, you will
integratecustomer expectations into product design, process planning and eventually to
process control.
1024
Tips
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Quality Function Deployment
Task: Tips
Steps
1. Capture the voice of the customer (customer requirements).
2. Determine the relative importance of each customer requirement.
3. Establish the relationship between the design requirements and the customer
requirements.
4. Determine the relative importance of each design requirement.
5. Compare self to the competition regarding each customer requirement.
6. Compare the design requirements to each other.
7. Add target values and specifications for each requirement.
User Tips
Refer to the following information in this course: matrix diagrams, House of
Quality matrix, customer data collection tools
QFD requires an opening share of information
Using a cross-functional team brings together different people with knowledge
about the customer, product, process, service, and/or transaction
Customer data may exist within the organization, but not communicated to those
needing the information
Avoid the “we know better than the customer” attitude
For each characteristic, set a specific target, not a range
Trade offs between characteristics may lead to unmet customer requirements,
delayed development, increased cost, and/or poor quality
Use specialized software to develop a complex matrix
1025
Tips
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Quality Function Deployment
Task: Tips
Analysis Tips
Odd patterns in the center of the matrix may indicate problems.
If there is an empty row, no characteristic meets the customer requirement.
Therefore, identify a new characteristic.
If there is an empty column, a customer requirement was missed or the
characteristic is not needed.
Rows with no strong relationships – Having at least one strong relationship helps
meet customer requirements. If there is not a strong relationship, look for one.
Column with no strong relationships – Each characteristic should have at least
one strong relationship. If there is not a strong relationship, rethink the
characteristic.
Row or column with many relationships – This may be a cost, reliability or safety
issue. Remove the relationship from the house and analyze it separately.
1026
Six Sigma Black Belt
Design for Six Sigma
Robust Design and Process
Learning Objectives
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Robust Design and Process
Concept: Learning Objectives
At the end of this DFSS topic, all learners will be able to:
understand functional requirements of a design.
develop a robust design using noise strategies.
understand the concepts of tolerance design and statistical tolerancing.
calculate tolerances using process capability data.
1028
Introduction
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Robust Design and Process
Concept: Introduction
1029
Taguchi Methods
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Robust Design and Process
Concept: Taguchi Methods
1030
Robust Design
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Robust Design and Process
Concept: Robust Design
Defining the ideal state of the basic function that is performing perfectly is the key to
robust design. To achieve this, Taguchi suggests the following guidelines for robust
design:
Identify the ideal function for the product or process.
Select quality characteristics that are continuous variables.
Select characteristics that add quality.
Quality characteristics should cover all aspects of the ideal function.
Quality characteristics should be easy to measure.
Robust design aims to produce a reliable design by controlling parameters so random
noise does not cause failure. Since DOE techniques help determine the best design
concepts used for tolerance design, a robust DOE strategy helps create a design that
improves the product parameters, process parameters, and desired performance
characteristics.
A product or process is controlled by three primary factors: noise, signal, and control.
To learn more about each, roll over each label in the diagram below.
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1031
Moving Needs Through Design
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Robust Design and Process
Concept: Moving Needs Through Design
The voice of the customer (VOC) describes the customer’s needs. VOC helps to align
design and improvement efforts, identify areas to enhance, identify critical features
and identify key drivers of customer satisfaction. VOC occurs throughout DFSS by
using the needs established during Define to focus the development process through
delivery.
Customers typically state their needs in common language, but designers must
transform the requirements into precise, technical terms and requirements in order to
meet the customer’s needs.
After defining the VOC, designers need to create critical-to-quality (CTQ)
requirements. To develop the CTQs, designers do the following:
1. Select several quality characteristics for each customer need
2. Develop measures to quantify each need
3. Set targets and specifications to exceed the competition
Designers convert the CTQs into the functional requirements (FRs) that serve as a
transition between the CTQs and the critical-to-process (CTP) features documented at
the process level. The process of transforming the VOC into CTPs is required to
ensure robustness. Functional robustness is the ability to withstand variation in input
conditions and still achieve desired performance capabilities and produce the desired
result at the lowest possible cost.
1032
Functional Requirements
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Robust Design and Process
Concept: Functional Requirements
Customers only like surprises when requirements are exceeded. Otherwise, customers
are disappointed or disgruntled.
Functional requirements (FRs) are the requirement the product or process must
possess to satisfy the customer’s requirements. The FRs need to be understood early in
the design process in order to establish criteria for selecting a design based on the
quality level and development costs that enable the product to survive in a competitive
marketplace. Along with establishing the functional requirement early in the process,
the FRs must yield accurate information. Misinformation about the FRs can delay the
development cycle.
Therefore, to meet the objective of their business strategy, the customer’s business
requirements serve as the foundation of the VOC. The customer's requirements must
transition into quality characteristics, target values and measurement techniques. Thus
detailed requirements and specifications are developed, and constraints involved in the
product or process are identified.
Examples of Functional Requirement Benefits of Functional Requirements
Car must average 35 miles/gallon Promotes partnership with the
(highway driving). customer
Manual must be written in active Establishes a baseline for
voice. requirements
A warning signal must activate when Emphasizes quality to reduce rework
o
the temperature exceeds 30 C. Increases time efficiency by reducing
Inside diameter must be 0.2500 implementation of unnecessary items
inches. Reduces maintenance
Increases reliability
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1033
Robustness and Cost
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Robust Design and Process
Concept: Robustness and Cost
1034
Noise Factors
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Robust Design and Process
Concept: Noise Factors
Noise factors are all the uncontrolled sources producing variation throughout the
product’s life and across production units, except variables in design parameters.
There are two types of noise factors: external and internal. External noise sources are
variables that are external to the product affecting its performance. Internal noise
sources are the product’s deviations from its nominal settings, including
worker/machine and environmental conditions.
In baking, the use of sugar, butter, eggs, milk, and flour are controllable factors,
whereas the conditions inside the oven such as humidity and temperature are not
controllable. Motor vehicle tires encounter external noise through exposure to a
variety of conditions such as surface conditions due to weather (damp, wet, snow, ice),
different temperature, and different road types (concrete, asphalt, gravel, dirt, and off
road). The ability of tires to provide a smooth ride and responsive stopping regardless
of the conditions is an example of robustness. For more examples of noise factors, roll
over Page Resources, and click Noise Examples.
1035
Noise Examples
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Robust Design and Process | Noise Factors
Example: Noise Examples
General
Weather Vibration Operating
Temperature Shift Environment
Humidity Use
Operator
Raw Materials
Material constraints Supplier Material properties
Moisture content Date produced Lot number
Mechanical
Machine type Cleanliness Tool wear
Machine age Machine number Tool design
Electronics
Motor interfaces Oxidation Circuit board thickness
Electrical isolation Component density Wait time
Circuit board Water temperature Material thickness
fabrication Component type
1036
Controlling Noise Factors
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Robust Design and Process
Concept: Controlling Noise Factors
Noise factors are difficult, expensive, or impossible to control. In the past, many
engineers approached noise problems by attempting to control the noise factors
themselves. Because of the expense, Dr. Taguchi suggests designers should only use
this type of control action as a last resort, and he recommends an experimental
approach to seek the design parameters to minimize the impact of the noise factors on
variation.
This approach drives the designer to select the appropriate control settings that will
make the product unaffected by noise factors, thus robust. Remember, the goal of
robustness strategies is to achieve a given target with minimal variation.
Lack of robustness is synonymous with excessive variation, resulting in quality loss.
Ignoring noise factors during the early design stages can result in product failures and
unanticipated costs; therefore addressing noise factors early in the process through
robust design minimizes these problems.
1037
Control Methodology
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Robust Design and Process
Concept: Control Methodology
To layout a robust design strategy, the product development team must first identify
the inputs, outputs, cost-effective controllable factors and uncontrollable factors. Then
designers use well-planned experimental design to gather data for analysis to provide
valid and objective information about the design.
Well-planned experimental design maximizes the amount of information obtained for
a given amount of effort. DOE, previously covered in the Improve lesson, is an
efficient procedure for planning experiments to obtain data for analysis for yielding
valid and objective information.
1038
DFSS and Orthogonality
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Robust Design and Process
Concept: DFSS and Orthogonality
The goal of setting noise factors is to simulate worst-case conditions that could occur.
Once the design team identifies the ideal function and corresponding noise and control
factors, the team begins to develop the experimental plan. Traditionally, if an
experiments involves 5 control factors and 3 noise factors using an 8-run design and a
4-run experiment, 32 trials are required.
As you have learned in the lmprove lesson of this course, Taguchi’s approach uses
orthogonality, an approach studying each factor independently. To accomplish this,
the plan consists of two orthogonal arrays – the inner array and the outer array. The
inner array consists of control factors and the outer array consists of noise and signal
factors. To summarize the orthogonal array information from the Improve lesson, the
matrix for each the three noise factors allows the designer to use a 2-factor noise
interaction.
Thus, the designer runs all noise factors against each control factor, and then analyzes
the data by computing the signal-to-noise ratio to summarize the results at each
control factor setting.
Another way for determining the effects of noise factors involves performing the
experiment with the best combination and the worst combination of noise level
settings. By making the product or process perform robustly at these two extremes,
then the process will be robust at any combination of noise factor settings in between.
1039
Tolerance
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Robust Design and Process
Concept: Tolerance
1040
Statistical Tolerance
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Robust Design and Process
Concept: Statistical Tolerance
Parts work together, fit into one another, interact together and bond together. Since
each part has its own tolerance, statistical tolerance is a way to determine the tolerance
of an assembly of parts.
By using sample data from the process, statistical tolerance defines the amount of
variance in the process. Statistical tolerance is based on the relationship between the
variances of independent causes and the variance of the overall results. Tolerence
intervals were also covered in the Point and Interval Estimation section of the Analyze
Lesson.
Example: Given a 12-piece sample from a process with a mean of 14.591 and a
standard deviation of 0.025, find the tolerance interval so that there is a 0.95
confidence that it will contain 99% of the population. From the table, K = 4.150.
1041
Stack Tolerance
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Robust Design and Process
Concept: Stack Tolerance
Sometimes parts are stacked together. Depending on the application, the parts may be
the same or quite different. In these cases, tolerance levels must be determined for the
entire stack.
Sum the minimal heights for the lower tolerance limit.
Sum the maximum heights for the upper tolerance limit.
Assuming the processes producing each part are capable and within normal
distribution, the tolerances of the parts are not additive, but are instead related to the
variance.
1042
Statistical Tolerancing
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Robust Design and Process
Concept: Statistical Tolerancing
"
"In other words," Pyzdek asserts, "instead of simple addition of tolerances, the squares
of the tolerances are added to determine the square of the tolerance for the overall
result." Pyzdek goes on to say, "The result of the statistical approach is a dramatic
increase in the allowable tolerances for the individual piece parts." This is an important
concept in terms of tolerance because now the parts can have a greater tolerance for
each part. An example is provided on the next page.
1043
Statistical Tolerancing Example
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Robust Design and Process
Concept: Statistical Tolerancing Example
The following example is taken from The Six Sigma Handbook by Thomas Pyzdek.
Consider a shaft and bearing assembly where the shaft is specified to be 0.997 ± 0.001
and the bearing is specified to be 1.000 ± 0.0001. In this example, the minimum
clearance between the two is 0.001 inches and the maximum clearance is 0.005 inches.
Pyzdek notes:
"
Thus, the assembly tolerance can be computed as:
Tassembly = 0.005" - 0.001" = 0.004"
The statistical tolerancing approach is used here in the same way as it was used above.
Namely,
If we assume equal tolerances for the bearing and the shaft to tolerance for each
becomes:
1044
Statistical Tolerancing Assumptions
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Robust Design and Process
Concept: Statistical Tolerancing Assumptions
1045
Tolerance Design
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Robust Design and Process
Concept: Tolerance Design
Tolerance design establishes metrics allowing designers to identify the tolerances that
can be loosened or tightened to meet customer needs while producing a cost-effective
product. Tolerance design goes a step beyond parameter design by considering
tolerance decisions as economic decisions just as spending additional money buys
better materials or equipment. Besides economics, tolerance design also considers
other factors such as constraints due to material’s properties, engineering design
choice and safety factors.
By enhancing the understanding of the relationship between product parameters,
process parameters, and desired performance characteristics, designers use DOE to
identify what is significant and move the process or product to the ideal function.
The following formulas are important in tolerance design:
Tolerance Specifications Need functional limit and the
safety limit to calculate
1046
Tolerance Design Example
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Robust Design and Process
Concept: Tolerance Design Example
The following tolerance design problem involves the power supply to televisions.
Functional limits at +/- 25% of output voltage
The average quality loss (A0) after shipping a bad TV = $300
In-house power supply adjustment before shipping = $1.00
1047
Tolerance Design and Process Capability
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Robust Design and Process
Concept: Tolerance Design and Process Capability
1048
Six Sigma Black Belt
Design for Six Sigma
Failure Mode Effects Analysis
Learning Objectives
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Failure Mode Effects Analysis
Concept: Learning Objectives
At the end of this DFSS topic, all learners will be able to:
understand the terminology, purpose, and use of scale criteria (including risk
priority number (RPN)) for failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and apply
to processes, products or services.
understand the distinction between and interpret data associated with design
FMEA (DFMEA) and process FMEA (PFMEA).
1050
Purpose
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Failure Mode Effects Analysis
Concept: Purpose
1051
Overview
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Failure Mode Effects Analysis
Task: Overview
Benefits
Ranks possible failures by their effect on the customer
Prioritizes deficiencies to focus improvement efforts
Documents information about risks of failure and risk reduction
Emphasizes prevention
Reduces product development time and cost
Improves reliability and quality
Reduces the amount of rework, repair and scrap
Stimulates team discussion
Use When
Identifying possible failures
Designing/redesigning a process, product or service
Evaluating a product for robustness (functionality, producibility, reliability)
Identifying causes during early stages of defect reduction efforts
Identifying key process/product parameters and evaluating methods for
controlling them
Considering a change to the product’s/process’s design, application,
environment, material, manufacturing or assembly process
Following a team brainstorm about the problem
Input Sources
Customer requirements
Design specifications
DOE
Failure and rework data
Prior FMEAs
Warranty, rework and service data
For DFMEA, the product or service; for PFMEA, the process
1052
Overview
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Failure Mode Effects Analysis
Task: Overview
Expected Results
Learn to identify critical product/process parameters
Achieve consensus on solutions and methods of implementation
Understand detailed product/process
Types of FMEA
Covered in Body of Knowledge:
Design FMEA - To improve system design
Process FMEA - To improve the manufacturing process
Others not in Body of Knowledge:
System FMEA - To improve linking multiple processes
Functional FMEA - To improve performance
Defect FMEA - To identify root causes of defects
1053
Risk Priority Number
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Failure Mode Effects Analysis
Concept: Risk Priority Number
Before returning to the individual types of FMEA, one must also understand a tool
within FMEA. Risk priority number (RPN) is the dimensionless index used to rank
and evaluate the combined degree of severity, frequency of occurrence, and the ability
to detect specific defects.
Generated by multiplying the severity, occurrence, and detection for each defect, the
RPN statistic reduces the number of possible failures to investigate. To help the team
narrow its focus on possible root causes, address the failures with the highest RPN and
any failure with a severity ranking of 10.
User Tips
Think of RPN as a risk factor
The higher the RPN value, the higher the risk
In the sample below, consider the scoring criteria as a suggestion rather than absolute.
Also, note that the detection scale is the reverse of the severity and occurrence scales.
1054
Design FMEA
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Failure Mode Effects Analysis
Task: Design FMEA
A vital part of the “up-front” engineering disciplines, design failure mode and effects
analysis (DFMEA) is a proactive approach documenting weaknesses in product
design that may cause system failures while a product is in service, thus eliminating
unsafe conditions that might result from a failure. Click each topic to learn more.
Benefits
Completed when designing new products or changing existing products, DFMEA:
helps identify potential product failure modes early in the product development
cycle.
identifies characteristics requiring special controls as well as highlighting areas of
improvement.
increases the likelihood that all potential failure modes and their effects on
assemblies will be considered.
assists in evaluating product design requirements and test methods.
establishes a priority for design improvement.
documents the rationale behind design changes and helps guide future
development projects.
improves system safety by eliminating unsafe conditions that might result from a
failure.
Teams
Beginning its investigation by identifying the lowest system level for analysis,
cross-functional teams, including representation from all engineering functions, should
complete the following tasks:
Analyze product design
Recommend design changes
Follow through on recommended actions
The engineering functions may include, but are not limited to:
Reliability
Product design
Quality
Manufacturing
Test
Field service
Logistics
Improvement
DFMEA often leads to design changes that improve a product’s reliability in one of
two ways:
A reduction in the failure rate during useful life
An increase in the duration of useful life through elimination of an early wear-out
failure mode
1055
Design FMEA
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Failure Mode Effects Analysis
Task: Design FMEA
Worksheet
To see a sample DFMEA worksheet, roll over Page Resources, and then click
DFMEA Worksheet.
1056
DFMEA Worksheet
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Failure Mode Effects Analysis | Design FMEA
Resources: DFMEA Worksheet
1057
Process FMEA
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Failure Mode Effects Analysis
Task: Process FMEA
Benefits
Helps analyze products and processes to reduce the occurrence and improve the
detection of defects
Assists in the development of process control plans
Establishes a priority for improvement activities
Documents the rationale behind process changes
Guides future process improvement plans
Helps identify potential Six Sigma projects
Compared to DFMEA
Similarities to DFMEA:
Uses cross-functional teams
Follows same general steps
Uses similar worksheet
Differences from DFMEA:
PFMEA does not rely on product design changes to overcome process
weaknesses
Team must consider design characteristics relative to the manufacturing process
to ensure that the product meets expectations
Worksheet
To see a PFMEA worksheet, roll over Page Resources, and then click PFMEA
Worksheet.
1058
PFMEA Worksheet
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Failure Mode Effects Analysis | Process FMEA
Concept: PFMEA Worksheet
1059
Procedure and Tips
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Failure Mode Effects Analysis
Concept: Procedure and Tips
Procedure
The FMEA team begins by identifying the lowest system level for analysis (e.g. parts
or components). After selecting the appropriate system level, the team completes the
following steps:
1. Identify the design/process/service and construct a process map.
2. Identify the potential failures.
3. For each failure, identify the possible consequences/effects.
a. Failure Effects – The outcome of the failure mode’s occurrence on the
process (identifying the impact on the customer’s experience).
4. For each consequence, assign a level of severity (S).
a. Use a 1-to-10 scoring scale.
b. Insignificant = 1, Catastrophic = 10
5. For each failure, determine the potential root causes by listing all the possible
causes.
6. For each cause, determine the occurrence rating (O).
a. Use 1-to-10 scoring scale.
b. Extremely unlikely = 1, Inevitable = 10
7. For each cause, identify the current process control: the tests and/or procedures
reducing the possibility of the failure reaching the customer.
8. For each process control, assign a detection rating (D).
a. Use a 1-to-10 scoring scale.
b. Most certain to detect = 1, Most certain not to detect = 10
9. Calculate the risk priority number (RPN) by multiplying S x O x D.
10. Calculate criticality by multiplying S x O.
11. Prioritize by RPN and criticality by sorting the RPN column.
12. Develop a corrective action plan based on the causes found and determine actions
to minimize the effect of each cause.
13. Implement corrective actions and reevaluate risk.
14. Repeat the analysis until all potential failures pose an “acceptable” risk level.
15. Document all changes and results.
User Tips
Helpful until during the Define Phase in DMADV and both the Define and
Improve Phases in DMAIC.
Creating FMEA results requires disciplined cause-and-effect thinking.
Use the broad knowledge within a cross-functional team to correctly assess the
risk.
Use flowchart and process maps to identify the system to be analyzed.
SIPOC (Suppliers-Inputs-Process-Outputs-Customers) analysis can be helpful.
Document the known cause-and-effect relationships in a fishbone diagram before
starting FMEA analysis.
Use the scoring guidelines table as a ratings guide.
1060
Procedure and Tips
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Failure Mode Effects Analysis
Concept: Procedure and Tips
Criticality and RPN calculations provide guidance for rank ordering potential
failures.
The higher the RPN, the more urgent the necessary improvement.
The detection level in a PFMEA must be determined for the process step at hand;
thus not based on the end of the process or any other step.
The same failure mode, the same effect and the same cause can occur more than
once over different process steps. More specifically, the same cause can occur
more than once with different effects within the same failure mode. Therefore, do
not duplicate their severity, occurrence and detection ratings because each rating
is independent of every other rating.
1061
FMEA Exercise
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Failure Mode Effects Analysis
Concept: FMEA Exercise
Given the information on the chart, rank the failures associated with obtaining the
wrong part in order (from highest to lowest) by RPN. To check your answer, roll over
Page Resources, and then click FMEA Answer.
1062
FMEA Answer
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Failure Mode Effects Analysis | FMEA Exercise
Example: FMEA Answer
Answer
1. Fails test (400)
2. Can’t build parts: Supplier error (192)
3. Defective parts shipped: Inadequate test procedure (160)
4. Can’t build parts: Supplier error (128)
5. Defective parts shipped: Wrong parameter (80)
6. Defective parts shipped: Test malfunction (40)
1063
Six Sigma Black Belt
Design for Six Sigma
Design for X
Learning Objectives
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Design for X
Concept: Learning Objectives
At the end of this DFSS topic, all learners will be able to understand design constraints
such as design for cost, design for manufacturability and producibility, design for test
and design for maintainability.
1065
DFX Introduction
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Design for X
Concept: DFX Introduction
Design for X (DFX) is an approach for designing products and services that meet
customer requirements. As a cross-functional team design activity involving
manufacturing, distribution and service organizations, DFX strategy reviews design
continually to find ways to improve product. For instance, when considering
serviceability, maintenance and service personnel are involved to note their
requirements and concerns. Due to its use of cross-functional teams and the nature of
continual review, DFX is needed within concurrent engineering (simultaneous
engineering) as an approach to improve new product development where the product
and associated processes develop in parallel.
1066
Concepts for DFX
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Design for X
Task: Concepts for DFX
The DFX toolbox contains numerous techniques for addressing product and process
design. Although importance varies from industry to industry and from product to
product, each technique has many applications. Click each to learn more.
1067
Concepts for DFX
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Design for X
Task: Concepts for DFX
1068
Concepts for DFX
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Design for X
Task: Concepts for DFX
Others
Design for user friendliness
Design for ergonomics
Design for appearance
Design for packaging
Design for features
Design for time to market
Design for environment
1069
Reliability
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Design for X
Task: Reliability
Probability
The chances that something will happen
A calculated, numerical value
Previously covered probability theory provides the mathematical foundation
Successful Performance
A specifically defined set of criteria for goodness or failure
A unit's conditions for each must be clearly defined; failure could mean total
inoperativeness or diminished performance
To calculate reliability, a product (or unit) exists in 1 of 2 states: successful
performance or failure
Operating Conditions
Operating conditions specify the environmental and use limits for operating the
unit (Ex.) This medicine must be stored in a dry room between 56 oF and 87 oF.
Customers have a responsibility to use a unit within these limits, but this is by no
means a guarantee
Product designers must anticipate and design for stress conditions above those
proper use conditions
Time
Within the context of reliability, the time period involved must be specified
Times could be hours, years, miles, cycles, or some other measure tied to
duration or amount of use
1070
Bathtub Curve Introduction
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Design for X
Concept: Bathtub Curve Introduction
1071
Test
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Design for X | Bathtub Curve Introduction
Fact: Test
Test your understanding of the bathtub curve, by dragging each label on the left to the
appropriate box representing each region on the right.
[ This page in the e-Learning course contains an animation or activity that cannot be printed.
See the online version to view this content. ]
1072
Wearout Period – Normal Distribution
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Design for X
Concept: Wearout Period – Normal Distribution
The right side of the bathtub curve has an increasing failure rate, signifying that:
probability of failure is increasing.
age is a factor in the probability of failure.
This makes sense, as most items become more likely to fail with age due to
accumulated wear.
The normal distribution can be used to model a product’s times to failure in the
wearout period. This is because the normal distribution has an increasing failure rate
corresponding with that of the wearout period. Both are shown below.
Rollover Page Resources, and then click Reliability Calculations to see how to
calculate reliability using the normal distribution.
1073
Reliability Calculations
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Design for X | Wearout Period – Normal Distribution
Fact: Reliability Calculations
To calculate reliability using the normal distribution, you must know or be able to
estimate the mean and the standard deviation.
Use the normal distribution to calculate a product’s reliability. The reliability itself is
found in normal probability tables. In order to use the tables, it is necessary to use the
translation equation (z):
The beginning of the wearout region is often assumed to be 3.5 to 4.5 standard
deviations to the left of the mean. The exact figure is determined by the amount of
wearout failure risk that product designers are willing to assume.
1074
Useful Life Period - Exponential Distribution
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Design for X
Concept: Useful Life Period - Exponential Distribution
The useful life period (center of the bathtub curve) has several distinct characteristics:
Period of intended product use
Customer use is the highest
Most reliability calculations and predictions done
Constant failure rate
Age of the product does not affect the probability of failure
Low failure rate if reliability is high
Exponential distribution can be used to model a product’s times to failure
The exponential distribution has a constant failure rate, corresponding with that of
the useful life period as seen in the illustration below. To view the mathematical
formulas in detail roll over Page Resources, and click Formulas.
1075
Formulas
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Design for X | Useful Life Period - Exponential Distribution
Fact: Formulas
The mean of the exponential distribution is symbolized by Theta (Θ). If a product can
be repaired, Θ is referred to as the mean time between failures (MTBF). If a product
cannot be repaired, Θ is referred to as the mean time to failure (MTTF). The mean of
the exponential distribution is an indicator of reliability during the useful life region of
the bathtub curve and should not be confused with the end of useful life or the
beginning of wearout. For reliability to be high, the MTBF (MTTF) must be high
compared to the mission time.
The formula for the exponential distribution is:
1076
Early Life Period
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Design for X
Concept: Early Life Period
The final portion of the bathtub curve, that which is furthest to the left shows a
decreasing failure rate. Failures during this period are referred to as early life failures.
Systems in this phase of lifecycle are deemed unsuitable for routine operation or
delivery to customers. The failures are caused by nonconformities introduced into a
product by the production process.
Common sources of early life failures include:
Inadequate materials
Improper use
Handling damage
Over-stressed components
Improper setup or installation
Power surges
The early life period is sometimes called the burn-in period. Roll over Page
Resources, and click Burn-In to reveal more details. Even though virtually all new
products experience early life failures, the failures are generally not used to make
reliability predictions.
1077
Burn-In
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Design for X | Early Life Period
Fact: Burn-In
Burn-in refers to the practice of running the system under conditions that simulate an
operating environment for a period of time sufficient to allow the failure rate to
stabilize. For many types of product, burn-in is performed at normal operating
conditions. For others, burn-in is performed at higher-than-normal stress levels such as
increased temperatures, vibration levels, etc.
During burn-in, many of the units containing nonconformities fail and are removed
from the population. This improves the reliability of units delivered to the customer
and reduces the likelihood that a unit will fail in customer hands because of an early
life cause. Unfortunately, the burn-in approach to ensuring high reliability is also very
costly and can be less than 100% effective.
1078
Reliability Indicators
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Design for X
Concept: Reliability Indicators
Mean time to failure (MTTF), mean time to repair (MTTR), and mean time between
failures (MTBF) are indicators of a unit's reliability. While none of these measure
useful life length (they measure reliability during life), MTTF and MTBF differ by
being a measure of reliability for nonrepairable and repairable units respectively. The
greater the MTTF and MTBF, the less likely a unit is to fail and the higher the
reliability. MTTR is the total corrective maintenance time divided by the total number
of corrective maintenance actions during a given period. MTTR is the average time it
takes to do a repair (corrective maintenance) once a unit has failed.
1079
Six Sigma Black Belt
Design for Six Sigma
Special Design Tools
Learning Objectives
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Special Design Tools
Concept: Learning Objectives
At the end of this DFSS topic, all learners will be able to understand the concept of
special design tools such as the theory of inventive problem-solving (TRIZ) and
axiomatic design (conceptual structure robustness).
1081
TRIZ
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Special Design Tools
Concept: TRIZ
This course previously covered the importance and benefits of using Taguchi Methods
for performing robust design. TRIZ and axiomatic design (AD) are tworelatively new
approaches to enhancing robust design. Both approaches aid the design
decision-making and problem-solving processes during the Design phase of DMADV.
TRIZ is an acronym for the Russian phrase Teorija Rezbenija Izobretaltelshih Zadach,
meaning “theory of inventive problem solving.” Genrich Altshuller (1926-1998), a
Russian mechanical engineer, created TRIZ as a set of problem-solving design tools
and techniques. After studying over 400,000 patents looking for inventive
problem-solving methods, Altshuller noticed patterns across different industries.
Traditionally, inventive problem-solving is linked to psychology; however, TRIZ is
based on a systematic view of the technological world. Altshuller realized that people,
including specialists, have difficulty thinking outside of their field of reference. Given
a problem (P) within their specialty, many people will only limit their search for a
solution (S) to their area of specialty.
What happens if the known solution to the problem could be found in another
knowledge area? For an example of a solution found in a seemingly unrelated area,
roll over Page Resources, and click Diamonds.
1082
Diamonds
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Special Design Tools | TRIZ
Example: Diamonds
Traditional diamond-cutting methods cut diamonds along natural fractures, but often
result in new fractures that go undetected until using the diamond. Rather than
improving the existing process, cutters needed a new process. The key in establishing
the new method was a pressurized process in the food canning industry used to split
green peppers and remove the seeds. A similar technique applied to diamond cutting
resulted in cuts without additional damage.
1083
Solutions and Knowledge
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Special Design Tools
Concept: Solutions and Knowledge
Altshuller classifies problems into two types: those with known solutions and those
with unknown solutions. Books, journals, subject matter experts and personal
knowledge provide answers to known solutions for 99% of problems.
Altshuller also classified solutions by levels of inventiveness. The concept of
employee creativity is often tied to breakthroughs: an improvement to unprecedented
levels of performance. Since breakthroughs comprise only 1% of solutions, TRIZ
helps designers avoid the trial-and-error approach and guides them to a better design
because 99% of the problems have been solved somewhere before.
1084
Parameters and Principles
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Special Design Tools
Concept: Parameters and Principles
The ideal solution is one with only benefits and no harmful or negative effects.
Unfortunately, problem-solvers often resort to trade-offs and compromise, thus not
achieving the ideal solution. An inventive problem is a problem in which the solutions
cause other problems to appear. For example, an increase in metal’s strength also
increases the weight. This solution creates a dilemna because the increased weight is a
negative outcome and not cost-effective.
Through his study of many patents, Altshuller identified 39 fundamental engineering
parameters and 40 inventive principles. His solution involved using contradictory
engineering parameters that created undesirable results to identify the inventive
principles to use for a solution.
1085
Table of Contradictions
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Special Design Tools
Concept: Table of Contradictions
1086
TRIZ and DFSS
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Special Design Tools
Concept: TRIZ and DFSS
By providing a methodology to think and look outside the box and avoiding
contradictions, TRIZ can help engineers, designers, developers, researchers and
quality professional solve problems and find new ideas leading to new product
development. Some links to DFSS and Six Sigma include:
Solving bottlenecks
Eliminating contradictions discovered in the House of Quality roof
Determining target values
Identifying potential failure modes
Lowering costs
Improving serviceability
1087
Axiomatic Design
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Special Design Tools
Concept: Axiomatic Design
In order to transform inputs into outputs, axiomatic design (AD) is a series of activity
steps to analyze systematically the transformation of customer needs into functional
requirements, design parameters and process variables. Originally developed by Nam
Suh at MIT, AD helps designers understand and structure design problems by
facilitating the analysis and synthesis of design requirements, solutions and processes
in both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing environments.
AD identifies four domains within design: customer, functional, physical and process.
Designers create solution alternatives by mapping the requirements specified in a
domain to a set of characteristic parameters in an adjacent domain. The mapping
between the customer and functional domains is defined as concept design; the
mapping between functional and physical domains is product design; the mapping
between the physical and process domains corresponds to process design.
Identifying the customer’s needs and requirements also known as customer domain
serves as the AD’s foundation. The functional domain consists of the requirements of
what the product must do to meet the customer requirements, while the physical
domain consists of the design parameters necessary to meet the functional
requirements. Thus, the process domain consists of the requirements to produce the
product to meet the physical domain.
1088
Axioms and Domain
Six Sigma Black Belt | Design for Six Sigma | Special Design Tools
Concept: Axioms and Domain
An axiom is a self-evident truth upon which other knowledge must rest, thus serveing
as a starting point for deducing other truths. In this sense, an axiom can be known
before knowing any of the other propositions.
Fundamental Axioms of Axiomatic Design
The functional requirements are independent of each other.
Good designs are less complex.
General Steps for Axiomatic Design
1. Establish design objectives.
2. Generate ideas for solutions.
3. Analyze the solution’s alternatives.
4. Implement the selected design.
After converting the customer needs into functional requirements, the designer breaks
down the high-level functional requirements (FR) into lower-level FRs until
implementing the design. At the same time, the designer moves between adjacent
domains. This zigzag movement ultimately links the entire design.
1089
Lesson Summary
DFSS is a proactive methodology for integrating information from the voice of the
customer into a design process to produce a defect-free process/product for the
customer. The purpose of this lesson is to emphasize some of the primary DFSS tools.
QFD is a methodology for determining the VOC and using the information to
drive development.
The House of Quality is a QFD tool linking the customer to the technical
requirements. Moving the information through a series of matrices integrates the
customer needs into required processes and their controls.
Robust design is a series of tools and concepts aiming to reduce the effect of
noise so the design does not fail. Tolerance design links components, their
specifications, and their interdependence with other components.
FMEA is a proactive tool aimed at dissatisfiers by examining potential causes of
failure to prevent failure for the customer.
DFX addresses design by focusing on specific aspects of cost, manufacturing,
assembly, test, safety and maintainability.
Axiomatic design is another tool for transforming the customer’s needs
throughout the design process.
TRIZ provides a methodology for thinking outside the box to problem solve
during design.
1090
Lesson Bibliography
Bibliography
American Society for Quality. ASQ’s Foundations in Quality Learning Series:
Certified Manager of Quality/Organizational Excellence. Milwaukee, WI: ASQ. 2005.
American Society for Quality. ASQ’s Foundations in Quality Learning Series:
Certified Quality Engineer. Milwaukee, WI: ASQ. 2000.
American Society for Quality. Six Sigma Green Belt Certification Preparation Course,
Version 1 (an online course). Milwaukee, WI, 2006.
ASQ Statistics Division. Rudy Kittlitz, editor. Glossary and Tables for Statistical
Quality Control, 4th ed. Milwaukee, WI: ASQ Quality Press. 2005.
Benbow, Donald and T.M. Kubiak. The Certified Six Sigma Black Belt Handbook.
Milwaukee, WI: ASQ Quality Press, 2005.
Breyfogle, Forrest W. III. Implementing Six Sigma: Smarter Solutions® Using
Statistical Methods. 2nd ed. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2003.
Pries, Kim H.Six Sigma for the Next Millennium: A CSSBB Guidebook. Milwaukee,
WI: ASQ Quality Press, 2006.
Pyzdek, Thomas. The Six Sigma Handbook: A Complete Guide for Green Belts, Black
Belts, and Managers at All Levels, 2nded. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2003.
Taguchi, Genichi. Taguchi on Robust Technology Development. New York, NY:
ASME Press, 1993.
Tague, Nancy.The Quality Toolbox, 2nd ed. Milwaukee, WI: ASQ Quality Press, 2005.
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Six Sigma Black Belt
Next Steps
Post-Assessment
Now that you have completed the web-based Six Sigma Black Belt certification
preparation course, the following learning option is available to you:
1. Take the course post-assessment. Here are 150 questions from each section of the
ASQ Body of Knowledge. You may repeat this assessment as many times as
needed until you reach a passing score of 80%. The questions are in a randomized
bank of approximately 500; the assessment will pose different queries each time
you take it.
2. If you select an incorrect answer, you will receive feedback as to which course
topic/lesson covers that question.
3. Once you reach or exceed the passing score
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Practice Test
Now that you have completed the web-based Six Sigma Black Belt certification
preparation course, the following learning option is available to you:
1. Use the Practice Test to check your knowledge and continue your certification
exam preparation.
2. This test may be taken as many times as you choose. There are 150 randomized
questions from all of the topics/sections of the Body of Knowledge.
3. If you select an incorrect answer, you will receive feedback as to which course
topic/lesson addresses that question.
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Printer-friendly Version of Course
Use the link below to generate an Adobe Acrobat file (PDF) of this entire course
(minus any interactivity) for you to print or save. There are approximately 1,000 pages
in this course so be sure you have an adequate paper supply.
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Course Evaluation
As part of our internal process of continual improvement, we solicit feedback from all
students who take our web-based training. We invite you to complete the attached
course evaluation and share your appraisal with us.
Click the link below to open the Adobe Acrobat PDF file.
Use the Zoom feature to view this file at 100%.
Once you are done, select the email button to forward your critique to ASQ.
Click here to start the course evaluation.
Thank you.
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