3/16/2011

THM 2112
Sophomore Research Seminar

The Research Process –

Theoretical Framework & Hypothesis
Development

Florian Zach, Ph.D.

Assistant Professor

WHERE WE ARE

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Paper Structure
Literature
Title page Abstract Introduction Review
(Relevancy)

Findings/ Data Hypotheses/

Discussion analysis/ Methodology Model
of results Results Development

Conclusions Implications References Appendix

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK &

ITS VARIABLES

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Theoretical Framework

A theoretical framework represents your

beliefs on how certain phenomena (or
variables or concepts) are related to
each other (a model) and an
explanation on why you believe that
these variables are associated to each
other (a theory).
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Theoretical Framework
 Basic steps – Variables and model:
1. Definitions: Clearly define and label the variables used
in the study
2. Conceptual model: State the relationships among the
variables.

 Basic steps – The reason (not relevancy):

3. Explain how or why you expect these relationships

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This is why Theoretical Framework

we read!

 Conceptual model
– Based on good theory. Theories explain
relationships between variables.
– Theory provides flow of relationships between
variables.
– Hypotheses developed upon a sound
conceptual model.
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Air Safety Example

 Concepts included:
– Communication among cockpit crew members
– Communication between ground staff and cockpit crew
– Minimal training given to cockpit crew
– Management philosophy of decentralized structure

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Air Safety Example

1. Definitions: Clearly define and label the variables
used in the study
2. Conceptual model: State the relationships among the
variables.

Air Safety Example

3. Explain how or why you expect these relationships
• Lower levels of communication among cockpit crew members would fail
to alert the pilot to impending hazard.
• Poor coordination between ground staff and copcpit crew would be
detrimental because such coordination is the very essence of safety
• Encouragement of decentralization would only reinforce poorer
communication and coordination efforts
• Inadequate training of cockpit crew would fail to build survival skills.

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Variable
 Any concept or construct that varies or changes in
value

 Main types of variables:

– Dependent variable
– Independent variable
– Moderating variable
– Mediating variable

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(In)dependent Variables

 Dependent variable (DV)

– Is of primary interest to the researcher. The goal of the research
project is to understand, predict or explain the variability of this
variable.

 Independent variable (IV)

– Influences the DV in either positive or negative way. The variance
in the DV is accounted for by the IV.

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IV/DV Example

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Air Safety Example

IVs DV

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Exercises
Work with the person next to you:
1. The manager wants to increase the performance of employees
at one branch. What is the DV?
2. A marketing manager believes that limiting the availability of a
product increases product desirability. What is the DV?
For the next 2 exercises identify the variables and is their label (IV
or DV). Provide a reason. How does the diagram look like?
3. A manager believes that good supervision and training will
increase the production level of all employees. What are the
variables and what is their label (IV or DV) and why? How does
the diagram look like?
4. A marketing manager believes that selecting physically
attractive spokespersons and models to endorse their services
increases the persuasiveness of a message.

Moderators
 Moderating variable
Moderator is qualitative
(e.g., gender, race, class)
or quantitative (e.g., level
of reward) variable that
affects the direction and/or
strength of relation
between independent and
dependent variable.

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Moderators
IV

DV IV DV

Air Safety Example

IVs MoV DV

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Exercises
 Work with the person next to you. List and label the variables.
Explain and illustrate (drawing) the relationships among the
variables.
1. A manager finds that off-the-job classroom training has a great
impact on the productivity of the employees in her department.
However, she also observes that employees over 60 years of
age do not seem to drive much benefit and do not improve with
such training.
2. A manager finds that the intensity of eBusiness adoption is
positively associated with sales performance. What’s more,
when market uncertainty (the rate of change in the composition
of customers and their preferences) is high, this positive effect
is strengthened.

Mediating Variable
 Mediating variable
– Surfaces between the time the independent variables start
operating to influence the dependent variable and the time their
impact is felt on it.

– Sits between the IV and DV.

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Air Safety Example

IVs MeV DV

Moderating vs. Mediating Variable

MoV

IV DV

MeV

IV DV

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Moderating vs. Mediating Variable

 Moderating Variable
– In general terms, a moderator is a qualitative (e.g., sex, race, class) or
quantitative (e.g., level of reward) variable that affects the direction and/or
strength of the relation between an independent or predictor variable and
a dependent or criterion variable.
 Mediating Variable
– In general, a given variable may be said to function as a mediator to the
extent that it accounts for the relation between the independent and the
dependent variable.
Another way to think about this issue is that a moderating variable
is one that influences the strength of a relationship between two
other variables, and a mediating variable is one that explains the
relationship between the two other variables.

Exercises
 Work with the person next to you:
1. Make up three different situations in which motivation to work
would be an independent, mediating and a moderating variable.
2. Failure to follow accounting principles causes immense
confusion, which in turn creates a number of problems for the
organization. Those with vast experience in bookkeeping,
however, are able to avert the problems by taking timely
corrective action. List and label the variables in this situation,
explain the relationships among the variables, and draw a
diagram.

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Exercise
 Work with the person next to you:
1. The manager of Haines Company observes that the morale of
employees in her company is low. She thinks that if their
working conditions are improved, pay scales are raised, and
the vacation benefits made attractive, the morale will be
boosted. She doubts, however, if an increase in pay scale
would raise the morale of all employees. Her conjecture is that
those that have supplemental incomes will just not be “turned
on” by higher pay, and only those without side incomes will be
happy with increased pay with a resultant boost in morale. List
and label the variables in this situation. Explain the relationship
among the variables and draw the diagram. What might be the
problem statement or problem definition for the situation.

Exercise
 Work with the person next to you:
The probability of cancer victims successfully recovering under
treatment was studied by a medical researcher in a hospital.
She found three variables to be important for recovery:
– Early and correct diagnosis
– Nurse’s careful follow-up of the doctor’s instructions
– Peace and quiet in the vicinity
In a quiet atmosphere, the patient rested well and recovered
sooner. Patients who were admitted in advanced stages of
cancer did not respond to treatment even tough the doctor’s
diagnosis was performed immediately on arrival, the nurses did
their best, and there was plenty of peace and quite in the area.
Devine the problem and develop the theoretical framework for
this situation.

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Exercise
 This model tries to explain customer loyalty.
 Identify IV, DV, MoV and MeV
 Draft the research statement

Exercise
 Identify IV, DV, MoV and MeV
 What is the special case here?

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Exercise
 The following exercises are derived from Affective Events Theory (Weiss & Cropanzano, 1996).
1. In the figure below, are dispositions a moderating or a mediating variable?
2. In the figure below, are affective reactions a moderating or a mediating variable?

 Exercise not related to the figure (drawing might help):

1. Receiving a nasty email from a coworker leads to feelings of anger which reduce overall job satisfaction. Is
receiving nasty emails a mediating or moderating event?
2. Access to free treats during break creates positive emotional responses for workers except for those who have
high negative affect (i.e., who are perpetually grumpy). Is this a mediating or moderating event?

Exercise
 This model tries to explain drivers of website usability and buying from
the website (behavioral intention). Furthermore, the model tries to
explain if there are differences between men (H) and women (F).
 Identify IV, DV, MoV and MeV
 Draft the research statement

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Exercise
 This model tries to explain user satisfaction when using a
specific software system (e.g. hotel management system).
 Identify IV, DV, MoV and MeV
 Draft the research statement

HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT

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Hypothesis
 After we explained the relationships between variables

 To test whether or not the relationship hold true

 Use of statistical or negative case analyses (in THM 3196)

 Results offer clues on how to address the problem or issue

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Hypothesis
 A proposition (statement) that is empirically testable and
concerned with the relationship among variables to predict
what you expect to find in your empirical data.

 Derived from theory that was used to develop the

conceptual model.

 Good hypothesis:
– Must be adequate for its purpose
– Must be testable
– Must be better than its rivals

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Hypothesis
 A hypothesis tests whether there are differences between
two groups (or among several groups) with respect to any
variable(s).

 Format (based upon the Air Safety Example):

– If-Then: If the pilots are given adequate training to handle mid-
air crowded situations, air safety violations will be reduced.
– Proposition: Adequate pilot training to handle mid-air crowded
situations will reduce air safety violations.

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Hypothesis
 Directional hypotheses
– Positive/negative relationship
– More than/less than

– Women are more motivated than men.

– The more stress on the job, the less employees are satisfied.

 Non-directional hypotheses
– No indication of direction
– Not used often
– Used when we have conflicting findings or now knowledge about the
relationship

– There is a relationship between age and job satisfaction.

– There is a difference between the work ethic of American and Asian
employees. 36

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Hypothesis
 Directional hypotheses
– Positive/negative relationship
– More than/less than

– Women are more motivated than men.

– The more stress on the job, the less employees are satisfied.

 Non-directional hypotheses
– No indication of direction
– Not used often
– Used when we have conflicting findings or now knowledge about the
relationship

– There is a relationship between age and job satisfaction.

– There is a difference between the work ethic of American and Asian
employees. 37

Hypothesis
 Following the hypothetico-deductive method hypotheses need to be
falsifiable. Hence, we need to write them in such a way that other
researchs can show them to be false.

 Null hypothesis H0
– Set to be rejected in order to support an alternate hypothesis (HA)
– Presumed true until statistical evidence (test) suggests otherwise.
– Typically expressed in terms of their being no (significant) relationship
between two variables or no (significant) difference between two groups.
– Usually not shown in a paper.

 Alternate hypothesis HA
– Expresses relationship between two variables or indicates differences
between two groups.
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Null vs. Alternative Hypothesis

Directed: Women are more motivated than men
H0: μM = μW or μM – μW = 0
HA: μM < μW

Nondirected: There is a difference between the work ethic values of American and
Asian employees.
H0: μAM = μAS or μAM – μAS = 0
HA: μAM ≠ μAS

The greater the stress experienced in the job, the lower the job satisfaction of
employees. Null would be no relationship, i.e. no correlation.
H0: ρ = 0
HA: ρ < 0 (negative correlation)

There is a relationship between age and job satisfaction.

H0: ρ = 0
HA: ρ ≠ 0
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Exercise
 Work with the person next to you and develop 5 hypotheses for
this scenario:
The manager of Haines Company observes that the morale of
employees in her company is low. She thinks that if their
working conditions are improved, pay scales are raised, and
the vacation benefits made attractive, the morale will be
boosted. She doubts, however, if an increase in pay scale
would raise the morale of all employees. Her conjecture is that
those that have supplemental incomes will just not be “turned
on” by higher pay, and only those without side incomes will be
happy with increased pay with a resultant boost in morale.

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Exercise
 Work with the person next to you and develop 5 hypotheses for
this scenario:
A production manager is concerned about the low output levels of his
employees. The articles that he has read on job performance frequently
mention four variables as being important to job performance: skill required for
the job, rewards, motivation, and satisfaction. In several of the articles it was
also indicated that only if the rewards were valent (attractive) to the recipients
did motivation, satisfaction, and job performance increase, not otherwise.
Given this situation:
Define the problem
Evolve a theoretical framework
Develop at least six hypotheses

Exercise
 Discuss the following statements with your neighbor:
1. Because literature survey is a time-consuming exercise, a good, in-depth
interview should suffice to develop a theoretical framework. Discuss this
statement.
2. Good models are complex. What’s more, a good model should include both
moderating and mediating variables. Discuss this statement.
3. Academic researchers usually develop more complex and elaborate models
than applied researchers. Discuss this statement.
4. In an applied research context you do not need to explain the relationships
between the variables in your conceptual model. Discuss this statement.
5. There is an advantage to stating the hypothesis both in the null and the
alternate; it adds clarity to our thinking about what we are testing. Explain.

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Service Manager Exercise

1. It is advantageous to develop a directional hypothesis whenever we are sure
of the predicted direction. How will you justify this statement?
2. In recent decades, many service markets have been liberalized. For this
reason, incumbent service firms are facing new competitors and must
address customer switching. You are discussing the determinants of
customer switching with a service firm manager. She believes that product
quality, relationship quality, and switching costs are important determinants
of customer switching.
You agree with the contention that product quality and relationship quality are
important determinants of switching. However, you believe that switching
costs moderates the relationships between product quality, relationship
quality and customer switching.
Provide arguments for this contention.

Holiday Inn Exercise

For the following case titled Sleepless Nights at Holiday Inn (published in Business
Week and adapted here):
a. Identify the problem
b. Develop a theoretical framework
c. Develop at least four hypotheses.

Sleepless Nights at Holiday Inn

Just a few years ago, Tom Oliver, the Chief Executive of Holiday Hospitality Corp., was
struggling to differentiate among the variety of facilities offered to clients under the Holiday
flagship – the Holiday Inn Select designed for business travelers, the Holiday Inn Express
used by penny pinchers, and the Crowne Plaza Hotels, the luxurious hotels meant for the
big spenders. Oliver felt that revenues could be quadrupled if only clients could differentiate
among these.

Continued…

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Holiday Inn Exercise

Sleepless Nights at Holiday Inn … continued
Keen on developing a viable strategy for Holiday Hospitality which suffered from brand
confusion, Tom Oliver conducted a customer survey of those who had used each type of
facility, and found the following. The consumers didn’t have a clue as to the differences
among the three different types. Many complained that the buildings were old and not
properly maintained, and the quality ratings of service and other factors were also poor.
Furthermore, when word spread that one of the contemplated strategies of Oliver was a
name change to differentiate the three facilities, irate franchises balked. Their mixed
messages did not help consumers to understand the differences either.
 Oliver thought that he first needed to understand how the different classifications would
be important to the several classes of clients, and then he could market the heck out of
them and greatly enhance the revenues. Simultaneously, he recognized that unless
the franchise owners fully cooperated with him in all his plans, mere face lifting and
improvement of customer service would not bring added revenues.

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