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1.2 DISCUSS THE WAYS IN WHICH COMPUTERS HAVE MADE LIFE MORE
DIFFICULT
Computers are very useful in our everyday day to day activities, however it also has its
disadvantages which some of them are listed below
Job loss – new technology is replacing humans robots are taking the place of humans and the
work human can do in a week robots are doing in hours.
World destruction weapons – increasing endless wars
Using computers for long time cause irritation in your eyes and neck.
Trolls, abuse, stalking, and exploitation
You could become anti-social or depressed
Potential of loss of privacy
Also, it has a bad effect on education if it is used improperly.
The potential benefits of are huge: everything that civilization has to offer is a product of human
intelligence; we cannot predict what we might achieve when this intelligence is magnified by the tools
that AI may provide.
There are also risks which we should consider and avoid intelligently: its been rumored that the world
militaries are considering autonomous-weapon systems that can choose and eliminate targets and that
the UN have advocated a treaty banning such weapons.
We as a group do not have any reservations concerning AI, yes it may have a bad side but there’s
more to gain if used in the right way
1.4 DISCUSS YOUR OWN PERSPECTIVE OF HOW EXPERT SYSTEMS MIGHT
REVOLUTIONIZE THE WAY PEOPLE SOLVE DECISION PROBLEMS
An expert system (ES) is a knowledge-based system that employs knowledge about its
application domain and uses an inferencing (reason) procedure to solve problems that would otherwise
require human competence or expertise. The power of expert systems stems primarily from the specific
knowledge about a narrow domain stored in the expert system's knowledge base.
Existing expert systems have a high percentage agreement with experts in a particular field in
many situations. However, in many ways their overall behavior is not like that of a human expert. These
areas include the inability to give flexible, functional explanations of their reasoning processes, and the
failure to degrade gracefully when dealing with problems at the periphery of their knowledge. These
two important shortcomings can be improved when the right knowledge is available to the system.
Expert systems have advantages when it comes to problem solving, the way problems are solved more
efficiently and less tasking. For example there is:
Permanence
Reproducibility
Efficiency
Consistency
Documentation
Completeness
Timelines
Speed means the duration computer system requires in fulfilling a task or completing an activity. It is
well-known that computers need very little time than humans in completing a task. Generally, humans
take into account a second or minute as a unit of time.
Nevertheless, computer systems have such fast operation capacity that the unit of time is in fractions of
a second. Today, computers are capable of doing 100 million calculations per second and that is why the
industry has developed Million Instructions per Second (MIPS) as the criterion to classify different
computers according to speed.
Accuracy
Accuracy means the level of precision with which calculations are made and tasks are performed.
One may invest years of his life in detecting errors in computer calculations or updating a wrong record.
A large part of mistakes in Computer Based Information System (CBIS) occurs due to bad programming,
erroneous data, and deviation from rules. Humans cause these mistakes.
Errors attributable to hardware are generally distinguished and corrected by the computer system itself.
The computers rarely commit errors and do all types of tasks precisely.
Reliability
Reliability is the quality due to which the user can stay dependable on the computer. Computers
systems are well-adjusted to do repetitive tasks. They never get tired, bored or fatigued. Hence, they are
a lot reliable than humans. Still, there can be failures of a computer system due to internal and external
reasons.
Any failure of the computer in a highly automated industry is disastrous. Hence, the industry in such
situations has a backup facility to take over tasks without losing much of the time.
Adaptability
Adaptability of computer system means the quality of it to complete a different type of tasks: simple
as well as complex. Computers are normally versatile unless designed for a specific operation. Overall, a
daily purpose computer is used in any area of application: business, industry, scientific, statistical,
technological and so on
A general purpose computer, when introduced in a company, can replace the jobs of multiple specialists
due to its flexibility. A computer system can replace the functions of all these specialists because of
being very versatile.
Memory
Storage is the ability of the computer to store data in itself for accessing it again in future.
Nowadays, apart from having instantaneous access to data, computers have a huge ability to store data
in a little physical space.
A general computer system has a capacity of storing and providing online millions of characters and
thousands of pictures. It is obvious from the above discussion that computer capabilities outperform the
human capabilities. Therefore, a computer, when used rightfully, will tenfold the effectiveness of an
organization.
Intelligent reasoning
This is one of the major limitations of computer systems. No matter how efficient, fast and reliable
computer systems might be but yet do not have any common sense because no full-proof algorithm has
been designed to program logic into them. As computers function based on the stored program(s), they
simply lack common sense.
Zero IQ
This is one of the limitations of a computer in terms of intelligent reasoning. Another limitations of
computer systems is that they have zero Intelligence Quotient (IQ). They are unable to see and think the
actions to perform in a particular situation unless that situation is already programmed into them.
Computers are programmable to complete each and every task, however small it may be.
Lack of Decision-making
They can be programmed to take such decisions, which are purely procedure-oriented. If a computer
has not been programmed for a particular decision situation, it will not take a decision due to lack of
wisdom and evaluation faculties. Human beings, on the other hand, possess this great power of
decision-making.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently declared his fear that AI is likely to destroy humankind, and that ‘a handful
of major companies will end up in control of AI systems with “extreme” levels of power‘, claiming that
‘AI is an existential risk for human civilization and creators must slow down‘. Musk believes that the
general concept of AI is so ethereal, that until ‘people see robots killing people in the streets’ will they
not know how to react.
Calling for a slowing of progression in the hopes that companies will become more responsible for the AI
that they develop, Musk believes that corporations need to be regulated. Organizations with the
monopoly on vast data centres and the latest in AI capabilities, wield disproportionate levels of power
over the public. But we all know that corporations aren’t so keen on regulations, and taking steps to
avoid such impositions will likely be the favored approach. Research giant PwC has predicted that AI will
replace up to 40% of jobs by 2030, with the financial sector being the most vulnerable to automation.
So, it pretty much looks as though the AI disruption is already happening.
Is there any good news with the rise of AI? A plethora of benefits comes with automation of jobs, such
as more accuracy, accountability and a higher quality of service for customers, as well as serving to
make business processes more efficient. Not to mention that AI is said to be revolutionising the
healthcare sector, creating better diagnoses, treatment and care for patients.
Hubspot CTO and Co-Founder Dharmesh Shah seems to think that bots will make us better at our jobs
and more secure in the workplace, not the other way around. Jeff Morgan, writer for The World
Economic Forum asks; ‘robots have been taking our jobs for fifty years, so why are we worried?‘. But
with all the pros and cons of AI, it’s hard to image a future intelligence-lead society as being one of calm
and security. With the inevitable being a tough pill to swallow, we look at the jobs that are the safest
and most threatened by artificial intelligence.
Jobs that are heavy on processes and require accuracy, reliant on data but involve little to no emotional
intelligence, are the ones under the most threat. Telemarketers are perhaps the most obvious industry,
with already less than a 10% conversion rate, it’s ripe for automation. With autonomous vehicles already
being prepped for launch, the logistics industry will be heavily hit, such as truck drivers, couriers and
cabbies being replaced by bots.
On the other side of the spectrum, the jobs that are focused on working with others requiring high levels
of emotional intelligence, such as mental health workers and occupational therapists, are society’s
safest. Let’s be honest, it is difficult to imagine robots replacing Reverends and AI becoming original,
authentic artists. But with the speed in which the world of work is changing, who really knows how it
will exist in the next one hundred years or less. Discover the most and least safe jobs in the lists below,
according to The Future of Employment.
The Jobs Most at Risk.
Mental health and substance abuse social worker – 0.3% Chance of automation
Artificial intelligence (AI) and related technologies will generate as many jobs in the U.K. as they displace
over the next 20 years, according to analysis published Tuesday by audit firm PwC.
The research states that while AI could displace roughly 7 million jobs in the country, it could also create
7.2 million jobs, resulting in a modest net boost of around 200,000 jobs.
The impact of AI on individual sectors is set to vary, however. In the health and social work
sector, PwC said that the number of people employed could rise by almost 1 million, while jobs in
manufacturing could fall by roughly 25 percent, a net loss of almost 700,000 roles.
“Major new technologies, from steam engines to computers, displace some existing jobs but also
generate large productivity gains,” John Hawksworth, PwC’s chief economist, said in a press release.
“This reduces prices and increases real income and spending levels, which in turn creates demand for
additional workers,” he added. “Our analysis suggests the same will be true of AI, robots and related
technologies, but the distribution of jobs across sectors will shift considerably in the process.”
The subject of AI and its potential impact on society has generated significant debate. In 2014, for
example, the late scientist Stephen Hawking told the BBC that the “development of full artificial
intelligence could spell the end of the human race.”
Other voices have been more positive. In May 2017, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos said that we were in
something of a “renaissance” and “golden age” when it came to the subjects of machine learning and
artificial intelligence.
"We are now solving problems with machine learning and artificial intelligence that were … in the realm
of science fiction for the last several decades," Bezos told an audience at the Internet Association’s
annual gala. "And natural language understanding, machine vision problems, it really is an amazing
renaissance.”
Looking at other sectors, PwC said that professional, scientific and technical services would see a 16
percent net increase, while education would see an increase of 6 percent. By contrast, the transport and
storage and public administration sectors are estimated to see decreases of 22 and 18 percent,
respectively.
In order to mitigate the “displacement effect” of AI, PwC recommended that governments invest more
in STEAM — science, technology, engineering, art and design and mathematics — skills and encourage
workers to update and adapt their aptitudes on a continual basis in order to complement machines. The
safety net for those who find it difficult to combat technological change should also be strengthened,
PwC added.
“As our analysis shows, there will be winners and losers,” Euan Cameron, the U.K. AI leader at PwC, said.
“It’s likely that the fourth industrial revolution will favor those with strong digital skills, as well as
capabilities like creativity and teamwork which machines find it harder to replicate,” he added.
1.9 LIST THE TEN MOST IMPORTANT ENGINEERING PROBLEMS SUITABLE FOR
EXPERT SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS
THE APPLICATIONS OF EXPERT SYSTEMS
The spectrum of applications of expert systems technology to industrial and commercial problems is so
wide as to defy easy characterization. The applications find their way into most areas of knowledge
work. They are as varied as helping salespersons sell modular factory-built homes to helping NASA plan
the maintenance of a space shuttle in preparation for its next flight.
This class comprises systems that deduce faults and suggest corrective actions for a malfunctioning
device or process. Medical diagnosis was one of the first knowledge areas to which ES technology was
applied (for example, see Shortliffe 1976), but diagnosis of engineered systems quickly surpassed
medical diagnosis. There are probably more diagnostic applications of ES than any other type. The
diagnostic problem can be stated in the abstract as: given the evidence presenting itself, what is the
underlying problem/reason/cause?
Systems that fall into this class analyze a set of one or more potentially complex and interacting
goals in order to determine a set of actions to achieve those goals, and/or provide a detailed temporal
ordering of those actions, taking into account personnel, materiel, and other constraints. This class has
great commercial potential, which has been recognized. Examples involve airline scheduling of flights,
personnel, and gates; manufacturing job-shop scheduling; and manufacturing process planning.
Configuration, whereby a solution to a problem is synthesized from a given set of elements related
by a set of constraints, is historically one of the most important of expert system applications.
Configuration applications were pioneered by computer companies as a means of facilitating the
manufacture of semi-custom minicomputers (McDermott 1981). The technique has found its way into
use in many different industries, for example, modular home building, manufacturing, and other
problems involving complex engineering design and manufacturing.
The financial services industry has been a vigorous user of expert system techniques. Advisory
programs have been created to assist bankers in determining whether to make loans to businesses and
individuals. Insurance companies have used expert systems to assess the risk presented by the customer
and to determine a price for the insurance. A typical application in the financial markets is in foreign
exchange trading.
Knowledge Publishing
This is a relatively new, but also potentially explosive area. The primary function of the expert
system is to deliver knowledge that is relevant to the user's problem, in the context of the user's
problem. The two most widely distributed expert systems in the world are in this category. The first is an
advisor which counsels a user on appropriate grammatical usage in a text. The second is a tax advisor
that accompanies a tax preparation program and advises the user on tax strategy, tactics, and individual
tax policy.
Systems falling in this class analyze real-time data from physical devices with the goal of noticing
anomalies, predicting trends, and controlling for both optimality and failure correction. Examples of
real-time systems that actively monitor processes can be found in the steel making and oil refining
industries.
These systems assist in the design of physical devices and processes, ranging from high-level
conceptual design of abstract entities all the way to factory floor configuration of manufacturing
processes.
Planning and Scheduling
Systems that fall into this class analyze a set of one or more potentially complex and interacting
goals in order to determine a set of actions to achieve those goals, and/or provide a detailed temporal
ordering of those actions, taking into account personnel, materiel, and other constraints. This class has
great commercial potential, which has been recognized. Examples involve airline scheduling of flights,
personnel, and gates; manufacturing job-shop scheduling; and manufacturing process planning.
The Expert System development in welding systems is interesting, for a quality execution it is necessary,
as seen in the examinated case, the choise of such parameters and their coordination.
It is also possible to obtain the objectives capable to value Expert System introduction in a work cell
control (system definition and control hypothesis) and to extend control even to cell maintenance
problems (data-base, definition of main problems, safety functions and timing activity).
When recent applications of expert systems in mechanical and manufacturing angineering are
surveyed , expert systems developed for these applications are discussed under three headings
according to whether they solve derivation problems (such as equipment and process selection,
machine condition monitoring, fault diagnosis, etc.), formation problems (synthesis and analysis of
machine elements and machine systems), or problems involving a degree of derivation as well as
formation (process planning, production scheduling, system configuring).
Turing proposed that a computer can be said to possess artificial intelligence if it can mimic human
responses under specific conditions. The original Turing Test, also referred to as the Imitation Game,
requires three terminals -- each of which is physically separated from the other two. One terminal is
operated by a computer, while the other two are operated by humans.During the test, one of the
humans functions as the questioner, while the second human and the computer function as
respondents. The questioner interrogates the respondents within a certain subject area, using a
specified format and context. After a preset length of time or number of questions, the questioner is
then asked to decide which respondent was human and which was a computer.
“Intelligence” in the context of Turing’s test is that a computer’s reply should be ‘almost’
indistinguishable from that of a human.
The question of whether or not a computer can pass a Turing Test has become irrelevant. Instead of
focusing on how to convince someone they are conversing with a human and not a computer program,
the real focus should be on how to make a human-machine interaction more intuitive and efficient -- by
using a conversational interface, for example.
Intelligence can be said to be the efficiency of an action in serving some purpose. One thing is
more intelligent than another thing if it achieves some purpose in less steps.
Control
Control is meant in the context of control theory, a branch of engineering that deals with
dynamical systems that perceive some fact about the external world and also have a way by which
they change that fact. When perception is explicitly contrasted to observations, it typically refers to
an abstract feature of observations (you observe the intensity of light from individual pixels, you
perceive the apple that they represent) but here I mean it as a superset that includes observation.
The thermostat is a dynamical system that perceives temperature and acts to exert pressure on the
temperature it perceives.
Mapping Inputs:
Fundamentally, machine intelligence associates each possible input with some output — a
classification, a prediction, or an action. Every input goes to one output, while an output may be
reached by multiple inputs. That’s a mapping from inputs onto outputs.
Recognition
This ability to recognize what has happened, as different from what we imagine or what has not
happened, must be put into machine intelligence as its own structure — in addition to the
partitioning of inputs into output territories mentioned above.Every time a new input-output pair
occurs, the machine intelligence must remember that instance. This occurs when the partitioning is
made accurate, bending or shifting the border walls to include that new occurrence within the
territory of the proper output.
Analog
Neural networks certainly achieve this desired compression. The synapse weights between each
neuron form a huge parameter space, which creates complex partitions quite easily. Both the ‘input
→output’ partitioning and the ‘input →known occurrence’ partitioning can be compressed in a
neural network. Though, there are many ways to design neural networks, and it is clear that current
architectures are insufficient for our purposes: existing neural networks cannot learn from the first
try, requiring hundreds of similar instances to learn anything, and even then their predictions are
imperfect.
Recollection is different from recognition. Recognition happens when you see something that
you’ve seen before; it happens in that instant, from your sensory experience.To recall an event or
piece of information that fits some requirement, we must filter through the input space, looking for
a match. When attempting to recall something that already happened, our ideal algorithmic
intelligence must filter out every point on the inputs except the very peak of each hill. First, the
function from inputs to outputs must be reversed, so that an output leads back to its input.
In conclusion, an intelligent system to me is one that we build in such a way that it educates and
supports us, rather than a system we ourselves 'educate' to do a specific task. Supportive systems that
elucidate and adapt and act 'rationally' even when we didn't tell it what 'rational' behaviour was.
Ignorance is the inability of an AI system to convert or perform operations based on data stored. It could
also be as a result of inaccurate or incomplete data.
1.15 DOES HAVING “KNOWLEDGE” IMPLY HAVING “INTELLIGENCE”? EXPLAIN.
Knowledge is the collection of skills and information an AI system has acquired over time.
Intelligence is the ability to apply knowledge. For example, just because a robot lacks knowledge of a
particular subject doesn't mean they can't apply their intelligence to help solve problems.
Data refers to unstructured facts and figures which lacks any form of organization.
INFORMATION
Information refers to data that has been organized, condensed and contextualize with which
the data captured now has purpose and direction.
KNOWLEDGE
Knowledge is the appropriate collection of information, such that its intent is to be useful.
Knowledge represents a deeper level of understanding and know-how and it is very much based on
experience; which empowers us to apply set of rules to information to help us make accurate
decisions.
BELIEF
Belief is an idea or concept which is held as true to the individual who holds it, and not
necessarily to anyone (or everyone) else. We accept knowledge as a belief and we share a belief as
knowledge to someone else. Knowledge is based on evidence whereas belief does not need any
evidence.
1.17 DRAW A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION THAT SHOWS THE
INTERRELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN VARIOUS BRANCHES OF AI
KNOWLEDGE
REPRESENTATION HEURISTICS
LOGICAL BASED
AI
PLANNING
AI GENETIC
PROGRAMMING
SEARCH
SO!
Musical notes are in form of data and these data can be manipulated by a software known as N-SYNTH
(NEURAL SYNTHESIZER), which also analyzes audio files and learns how all data relate to itself and then
produces new audio files from scratch.
1.20 SUGGEST HOW NEURAL NETWORKS AND EXPERT SYSTEMS MAY BE
INTERFACED TO ENHANCED THE EFFECTIVENESS OF BOTH
Taken into consideration, the MEDICAL EXPERT SYTEMS.
Example of neural network in medical expert system is Mycin. Mycin is a computer-based consultation
system designed to assist physicians in the diagnosis for blood disease.
Therefore, the reasoning capabilities of medical expert systems can be enhanced with the ability of
generalization, the handling of incomplete cases by neural network based expert systems.