006 Guidance Notes 2 Text 6 September 09 RJ PDF

GUIDANCE NOTES ON POST-DISASTER DAMAGE AND LOSS ASSESSMENT
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The World Bank has been requested by member governments in recent years to
assist in defining and financing economic recovery and reconstruction after
disasters. To define the extent of post-disaster programs in those cases, the Bank
has utilized the methodology for disaster damage and loss assessment developed
by the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the
Caribbean (UN-ECLAC)1.
The ECLAC methodology has been applied and successfully used since 1972 in
the Latin America and Caribbean region. After some customization, the
methodology has been transferred and used in other regions of the world – most
notably in Asia and, recently, in Africa – to ascertain the effects of major
disasters, such as the December 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami and others.
The World Bank has cooperated in the further development, updating and
simplification of the ECLAC methodology, with a view to disseminate it within
its Staff, to share it with other international and regional agencies, and to transfer
it to government officials in high-risk countries for widespread use in disaster
impact assessment and disaster risk management. The updated and simplified
version of the damage and loss assessment methodology is presented herewith.
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A disaster has two main types of effects on a society and economy: destruction
(total or partial) of physical assets, and subsequent changes or modifications to
economic flows in the affected area.
The following definitions of disaster effects have been adopted after careful
consideration of the experience acquired during the past 35 years:
Damage: total or partial destruction of physical assets existing in the

affected area2. Damage occurs during and immediately after the disaster
1
Handbook for Estimating the Socio-Economic and Environmental Effects of Disasters, UN
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Santiago, Chile, 2003.
2
Disasters usually damage different types of assets: buildings, infrastructure, equipment and
machinery, furniture and household goods, means of transportation and storage, irrigation works,
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and is measured in physical units (i.e. square meters of housing, kilometers

of roads, etcetera). Their monetary value is expressed in terms of
replacement costs prevailing at the time of the event.
Losses: changes in the economic flows arising from the destruction of
assets3. They occur until full economic recovery and reconstruction of assets
has been achieved, in some cases over several years. Typical losses include
the decline in output in productive sectors (agriculture, livestock, fisheries,
industry and commerce) and the lower revenues and higher operational
costs in the provision of basic services (water and sanitation, electricity,
transport), as well as the unexpected expenditures to meet humanitarian
needs during the post-disaster emergency phase. Losses are expressed in
current values.
The amount of damage is used as the basis for estimating reconstruction needs –
as will be described in subsequent sections of these guidance notes – while the
amount and type of losses will provide the means to estimate the overall socio-
economic impact of the disaster and the needs for economic recovery.
The socio-economic impact analysis includes the estimation of the likely effects
of the disaster on the performance of the economy and the temporary macro-
economic imbalances that may arise, as well as on temporary decline in
employment, income and well-being of affected individuals and households.
In regard to the impact on the macro-economic variables, analyses are usually

made of the post-disaster performance on gross domestic product (GDP), the
balance of payments (BOP) and the fiscal sector. The impact on GDP refers to the
negative repercussions of disaster losses on the performance of the economy, and
the positive effects on the construction sector due to the initiation of the
reconstruction program are also taken into consideration. The impact of disaster
damage on gross investments may not necessarily occur in the same year of the
disaster, but would be measured in the following years as – depending on
construction sector capacity and financial resource availability – asset restoration
or replacement gets underway. The impact on the balance of payments involves
the estimation of the increase in imports and decline of traditional exports arising
from the disaster, as well as possible reinsurance payments and relief donations
from the international community. The analysis of disaster impact on public
finances takes into consideration both possible declines in government revenues
due to lower income in government-owned enterprises and to possible lower tax
etcetera. A detailed list of possible damage to different sectors will be provided in the appropriate
sections of these guidance notes.
3
Losses normally include decline in production and sales, increased operational costs and lower
revenues in the provision of basic services, and unexpected expenditures to meet emergency
needs. Lists of typical losses in each affected sector will be provided in the appropriate sections
of these guidance notes.
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revenues caused by a decline in economic activity after the disaster, as well as

increased outlays to meet the unexpected demands of the emergency and
rehabilitation stages.
In regard to the impact on personal or household well-being, the analysis

normally includes the estimation of employment and income decline due to the
losses sustained in the productive and services sectors and the increased family
or personal expenditures arising from the disaster, in comparison to normal,
non-disaster conditions.
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A damage and loss assessment following disasters can be used advantageously

to determine post-disaster needs including economic recovery planning, and
reconstruction program design. It may be used as well for monitoring progress of
both economic recovery and reconstruction4.
There are two distinct potential uses of the results of a damage and loss
assessment: in the short term, to define government interventions in the
immediate aftermath of the disaster that aim towards the lessening of people’s
suffering and to initiate economic recovery; in the medium to long term, to
define the required financial needs to achieve overall recovery and
reconstruction based on a preliminary strategy for post-disaster recovery and
reconstruction.
The assessment of damage and losses – in addition to revealing the amount of

effects caused by a disaster – provides information to define effects and impacts
in most affected geographical areas and sectors of the economy, as well as on
overall economic performance.
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A subsequent use of the results of the assessment is to estimate the requirements

or needs of financial resources to undertake recovery and reconstruction of the
affected areas. The value and the spatial, time and by-sector distribution of losses
are used to estimate the requirements of economic recovery, while the value and
geographical and by-sector distribution of damage is used to estimate the
requirements of reconstruction (See Graph 1-1 in the following page).
4
A good example of this post-disaster performance monitoring is the system recently put into
operation by the World Bank Jakarta Office following the 2004 tsunami in the Provinces of Aceh
and Nias, Indonesia.
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Graph 1-1
From Damage and Loss Assessment to Post-Disaster Needs:
Aceh Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster 2004
ECONOMIC
RECOVERY
PROGRAMME
RECONSTRUCTION
PROGRAMME
Source: Bappenas and World Bank Report, 2005.
Typical objectives of an overall economic recovery program include the

restoration of personal and family income, essential services, and production
activities in the affected areas. The main objective of the reconstruction program
is the replacement or repair of physical assets that were totally or partially
destroyed by the disaster, under the “building back better” concept.
The description of the procedure to estimate needs for recovery and

reconstruction, using the ECLAC methodology, will be included under Section
III of the Guidance Notes series prepared by the GFDRR.
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The damage and loss assessment methodology is based on a sector-by-sector and

a subsequent “bottom up” approach to estimate the overall effects of the disaster
and their impact on the affected society and economy.
A generic procedure for the damage and loss assessment in each sector is
described in this section of the guidance notes, to be followed by detailed, step-
by-step procedures to take care of specificities for each sector.
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A brief description of a generic, step-by-step procedure for the assessment of

damage and losses is included herein. Minor variations are to be made in the
case of specific, more complex sector analysis: these will be described in the
appropriate sections later on.
The typical steps to be followed during an assessment of damage and losses are
the following:
1. Define a pre-disaster baseline

2. Develop a post-disaster situation
3. Estimate damage and losses on a sector-by-sector fashion
4. Estimate overall amount of disaster effects
5. Estimate macro-economic impact
6. Estimate impact on personal/household employment and income
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This refers to the baseline of prevailing conditions before the disaster occurs, to
be used as the basis for the estimation of damage and losses. Two sets of pre-
disaster baseline are required:
 A baseline on physical assets, and

 A baseline on the performance of production and sales.
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The baseline of physical assets refers to the existing physical facilities before the
occurrence of the disaster within the affected areas, and should include inter alia
the number and type of housing units, the number and type of educational and
health facilities, the extent of irrigated agricultural areas, the number and
capacity of electricity, water supply and sanitation systems, the length and types
of roads, etcetera. In the case of some sectors, this baseline should also include
the available facilities of nearby areas that may be used on a temporary basis to
provide services in the affected area.
The second baseline refers to the manner in which all economic activities
perform in the affected area under non-disaster conditions, referred to the
volume and value of production, sales, etcetera, of goods and services. The
calendar of agricultural production activities, the value of production and sales
in other sectors, the volume and value of essential (electricity, water and
sanitation, and transport) services, for the current and subsequent two years, are
examples of the information required.
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The second step to be undertaken in the damage and loss assessment is to

develop a post-disaster scenario, based on the findings of both a field survey
where the assessment specialists obtain a full grasp of disaster effects on each
affected sector and interaction with local sector specialists (from the government
and the private sectors) that can provide inputs for the assessment.
Two outputs are required in this step: a preliminary calendar or schedule for the
reconstruction of physical assets, and a corresponding post-disaster, preliminary
performance forecast of economic activities in each affected sector.
To develop the preliminary calendar of reconstruction, and based on the field

survey and the consultations with local specialists on the subject, the following
must be done:
 Define a typology of physical assets (by size, capacity, construction

materials, et cetera)
 Obtain unit repair and reconstruction prices for above, not affected
by scarcity or speculation
 Develop a preliminary calendar of repair and replacement of
physical assets, giving due consideration to the existing
construction sector (including availability of skilled labor and
construction equipment and materials in the affected country or
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area) and to the expected availability of adequate financial

resources.
To develop the preliminary forecast of economic activity performance after the

disaster, it is essential that a conservative estimation be made of the time period
required for the reconstruction and recovery of each sector, and to take into
consideration all existing linkages between all sectors.5 The post-disaster
performance of economic activities and services must be developed on the basis
of the expected, staged repair and replacement of assets and the possibilities of
adopting temporary solutions to other supply problems (such as tapping
alternative water or energy sources from nearby areas), as well as the expected
recovery of production6. The expected calendar of economic recovery should
include the resulting calendar of production recovery, income or revenues, and
costs.
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The estimation of damage and losses for each and every sector is to be made
through a comparison of the pre-disaster and post-disaster conditions, described
under the two previous steps. Damage figures are to be presented in terms of the
replacement value prevailing at the time of the disaster, and losses should be
estimated in current values.
To determine the overall amount of disaster effects, damage and losses for all
affected sectors must be added, giving due attention to avoid possible gaps and
double accounting in the assessment7. This requires that special care be exercised
to ensure that the existing linkages between sectors are duly considered in the
estimation of losses8.
The overall amount of disaster effects will later on be compared to main macro-
economic variables in order to define the relevance of each type of effect and its
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In this regard, the fact that full recovery of electricity, water and transport demands can only be
achieved until full reconstruction of housing and industries is completed must be taken into
consideration.
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The combination of two possible scenarios of recovery must be considered in the analysis: the
decline and recovery in supply due to damage and reconstruction of physical assets; and the
decline and recovery of demand.
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Some typical cases to consider: losses in primary production must be estimated at producer
prices, and not at wholesale or retail prices; farm roads should be included in the agriculture
sector and not in transport; the tourism sector must not include damage to roads and service
facilities.
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A typical case is the food producing chain that links the primary production of agriculture,
livestock and fishery to industry and commerce. In addition, losses in industrial production would
produce subsequent losses in the trade or commerce sectors.
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impacts on the economy and society, as well as to define economic recovery and
reconstruction needs.
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The sectors to be included in the assessment of damage and losses are those of
economic activities listed in the system of national accounts of the affected
country (See Guidance Notes, Part I, How to Conduct a Damage and Loss Assessment).
In the following sections the procedures and steps to assess the value of damage
and losses for typical sectors of economic activity – whose name and scope may
change from country to country – are described in full.
The assessment team must make the necessary adaptations in this regard, on the
basis of the actual conditions in the affected country.
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The water and sanitation sector includes the three separate subsystems required
for the provision and treatment of drinking water for human settlements, as well
as the collection, treatment and disposal of wastewater and solid waste. As in all
other sectors, the water and sanitation sector may sustain damage and losses
after disasters. Damage refers to the total or partial destruction of physical assets;
losses refer to the changes in economic flows in the sector that may arise as a
result of the interruption of normal operations in the system.
Damage is initially measured in physical terms and then is converted to

monetary value in terms of replacement costs for the affected asset. Losses refer
to the changes in operational performance of the sector enterprise(s), and usually
include both a decline in revenues for the provision of services and increased
operational costs for the services; they are expressed in current monetary values.
Civil or sanitary engineers usually carry out the assessment of damage; the
estimation of losses usually requires the services of economists or accountants
working in the water and sanitation field.
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When undertaking a damage and loss assessment after disasters, the following
baseline information is a must:
 The characteristics (geographical or spatial location, and installed

production, treatment, pumping, conveyance, storage, distribution
and disposal capacities) of the main components of the water and
sanitation systems located in the affected area itself.
 Existing similar capacities in nearby locations that may be used as
alternative, temporary solutions after disasters.
 Statistical data on water supply, wastewater and solid waste
demands by main users, and their seasonal variation over the year.
 Projections of above for the next three calendar years.
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 Financial information on the enterprises that provide services in the

sector, including monthly operational data on revenues and
production costs, as well as differential rates charged to users.9
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The second stage of the assessment requires the undertaking of a field visit (or
visits, depending on the complexity of the issues) to ascertain the effects of the
disaster on the water and sanitation sector.
After the field survey and holding in-depth discussions with substantive
personnel from the enterprises, the assessment specialist must be able to
determine the remaining production capacity of each subsystem and its
temporary performance, until the systems can be repaired and brought back to
their pre-disaster levels.
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Damage must be estimated for each of the drinking water supply, wastewater
and solid waste subsystems. A further breakdown is required for the main
individual components of these subsystems, including inter alia dams, wells,
water-treatment plants, pumping stations, pipelines, storage tanks, distribution
grids, sewerage facilities, latrines and septic tanks in the rural areas, and solid
waste collection, treatment and disposal facilities.
The replacement value of destroyed assets must be ascertained using present

construction or replacement costs, that can be obtained from private contractors
presently involved in similar work in the affected country or area, as well as
from the planning department of the affected utility that may have new, similar
projects in the planning stage. It must be remembered that the replacement
values to be adopted are those not yet affected by scarcity or inflation, as
adjustments for these factors are to be dealt with later on when discussing
overall reconstruction needs after the disaster.
In order to ascertain losses, it is essential that an objective calendar of repair and

replacement of the affected assets be developed by the assessment specialists,
that take into consideration the availability and delivery schedule of adequate
financing, as well as replacement materials, equipment and machinery, and that
will permit returning to pre-disaster conditions of service.
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In the case of privately owned enterprises, this information is normally available in the annual
reports submitted by the enterprise to its stockholders.
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Based on the above, a preliminary calendar or schedule of capacity recovery

must be developed by the assessment specialists. Furthermore, when the
demand for services has been considerably affected – i. e. when destruction of
housing and industries is widespread in an urban area, for instance – projections
of recovery for the demand of water supply and sanitation services must be
made as well, and superimposed on the calendar of supply recovery.
Losses are then to be estimated by comparing the pre-disaster to the post-disaster

performance of each subsystem, ensuring that the following issues are analyzed:
 Higher operational costs (due to use of alternative sources or means

of supply and disposal, the temporary operation of damaged
system components, or the temporary, more-intensive operation of
undamaged system components)10.
 Lower operational revenues of the sector enterprises, until services
are brought back to normal levels, due to the temporary total
suspension of operations, partial supply of services while assets are
under repair, and due to temporary decrease of demand from
users11.
A word of caution is required here. In practice, it is quite possible that the water
and sanitation systems may be repaired and reconstructed before the demand for
its services recovers to pre-disaster levels in the affected area. In the case of major
disasters, where destruction of entire cities has occurred, the demand of water
and sanitation services will not recover to pre-disaster levels until full housing
and industry reconstruction is achieved. In such cases, revenues for the service
enterprises would not recover until full reconstruction of the housing sector is
achieved. The water and sanitation sector assessment specialist must therefore
consult with the housing and industry sector specialists to ensure that losses in
his/her sector cover the entire period of reconstruction for the housing and
industry sectors.
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Among the items to be considered under this heading are: higher costs of chemicals to ensure
quality of drinking water; higher water distribution costs when using tanker trucks to reach users;
the more-intensive operation of systems to compensate for higher water losses in damaged
system components (such as distribution or conveyance water mains); cleaning of sewerage
systems and treatment plants after flooding; higher transport costs to collect and dispose of solid
waste, etcetera.
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The operation of the services may be fully stopped during an initial short period of time
immediately after the disaster (a few hours to a few days), to be partially resumed during the
period of repairs until full system reconstruction is achieved. In addition, service demand may
drop due to extensive destruction in cities caused by the disaster and the subsequent overall
lower economic activity. These temporary interruptions or partial operations for each subsystem
would result in corresponding losses in revenue for the enterprises.
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Losses should be estimated on a calendar-year basis, including those of the year

in which the disaster occurred and the subsequent years of recovery and
reconstruction.
The ownership of damage and losses is to be defined and broken down into
public and private sector.
During the assessment, it must be remembered that losses arising in water-user

sectors – such as industry, trade and tourism, for instance – as a result of the non-
provision of water, are to be estimated and accounted for in each of those sectors,
either as production losses and/or as higher production costs when alternative,
higher-cost sources of water are chosen as interim solutions.
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As part of the assessment, estimates are to be made of the impact or

consequences that, in the absence of post-disaster interventions, damage and
losses may have on the macro-economic performance of the affected country or
area as well as on the well-being of persons and households affected.
In regard to the macro-economic impact analysis this refers to, first, the possible
impact on GDP and, second, on the balance of trade and payments, and on the
fiscal budget, especially when the sector enterprises are government-owned or
receive subsidies from the government.
In the damage assessment, estimates are to be included to ascertain the value of

assets – including equipment, machinery, parts, materials – that will require to be
imported from abroad when no domestic production is available.
The impact of losses on the government budget is to be estimated in terms of

increased operational costs and lower revenues. If the government directly owns
the sector enterprises, losses will be sustained by the fiscal budget. When
government subsidies are involved in the operation of a private sector enterprise,
the assessment specialist should ascertain whether the subsidies are to continue
uninterrupted and at the same level during the rehabilitation and reconstruction
stage.
The above information is to be supplied to the specialist undertaking the overall,

macro-economic impact analysis.
To estimate the impact in well-being of the affected population, once the

production losses are assessed, the decline in personal or household income and
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the possible higher expenditures are to be estimated, and provided to the

assessment team in charge of such impact analysis.
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The electrical sector may sustain damage and losses as a result of disasters.
Damage refers to total or partial destruction of physical assets; losses refer to
changes in the economic flows of the sector that arise from the interruption,
however temporary, of the supply of electricity.
In this sector, again, damage is initially measured in physical quantities or units,

which are later on converted into monetary value using the replacement cost of
the affected assets. Losses include the possible decline in revenues that arise from
the temporary interruption of electricity supply and the possible increase in
operational costs until normal operations are achieved; they are expressed in
current values.
Civil or electrical engineers usually estimate the value of damage; the estimation
of losses requires the services of economists or accountants working in the
electrical sector field.
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maattiioonn
The following information is required for establishing the baseline for the
assessment of damage and losses after disasters:
 The characteristics – in terms of geographical or spatial location,
installed capacities and operation costs – of all components of the
electrical systems located in the area affected by the disaster.
 Existing idle capacities in nearby systems or areas that may be
interconnected to the affected system or that may have the capacity
for rapid interconnection as an alternative, temporary solution after
the disaster.
 Statistical information on electricity generation and consumption
by the main user sectors, and their seasonal variations over the
year.
 Projections of above for the next three calendar years.
 Financial information on the enterprises that comprise the sector,
including monthly operational data on revenues, production costs
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per type of power plant and rates charged to different user

sectors12.
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This stage of the assessment involves a field survey to ascertain the effects of the
disaster on the production, transmission and distribution capacities of the
affected electrical systems. In the case of disaster that cause major destruction of
housing and other sectors that utilize electricity, the field survey must be used
also to ascertain the characteristics and extent of the decline in electricity demand
from such users.
Upon completion of the field visits and after holding extensive discussions with
substantive personnel of the enterprises composing the sector in the affected
area, the remaining capacity – in terms of production, transmission and
distribution – and its expected temporary performance, until the system can be
repaired and brought back to its full or pre-disaster capacity, must be estimated.
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Damage must be estimated for each of the electrical system components,

including a breakdown on power generation plants, transmission subsystems,
and electricity distribution grids.
Damage must be expressed in terms of the repair and replacement costs of each
system component. These values may be obtained from the electrical enterprises
planning departments, which usually keep them for use in their on-going
development plans. As a supplement, the assessment specialist may wish to
contact private building contractors that may have valid replacement costs
information. The replacement or repair unit costs to be adopted must not be
affected by scarcity or inflation arising after the disaster, as appropriate
adjustments will be made in the final stage of overall reconstruction planning.
To estimate losses, an objective calendar or schedule of repair and reconstruction

of electrical sector assets must be developed by the assessment specialists, in
close coordination with the local counterparts, that will take into consideration
the availability and schedule of adequate financing, as well as replacement
machinery, equipment and skilled labor that will enable the return to pre-
disaster conditions of electrical service supply.
12
Such information is normally available in the annual reports issued by each electrical
enterprise, whether publicly or privately owned.
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On the basis of the above, the assessment specialist and local counterpart officials
must prepare a preliminary calendar or schedule of electricity supply recovery,
together with a similar estimation of post-disaster electrical demand
performance. These should be combined in order to define the overall post-
disaster performance for the sector, until full recovery of supply and demand is
achieved.
In this regard, as in the case of water supply, special care must be exercised by
the electrical sector specialists to ensure that the recovery of demand from all
user sectors – with special reference to the residential, agricultural, commercial
and industrial sectors – is given due consideration. It must be borne in mind that
if widespread destruction has been caused by the disaster, the demand for
electricity will not recover to pre-disaster levels until full reconstruction in the
user sectors is achieved, even if electricity supply is restored ahead of time. It is
therefore essential that the electrical sector specialists coordinate their actions
and projections with those of other economic and social sectors that utilize
electricity in their daily functioning.
Losses are then estimated by comparing the pre-disaster with the post-disaster
performance for the electrical sector, ensuring that the following issues are
analyzed in depth:
 Lower operational revenues arising from lower sales to electricity-

user sectors, until such time as may be required to achieve pre-
disaster levels of demand, due to: the initial, temporary, total
interruption of service; the partial supply of electricity while assets
are being repaired or replaced; and the temporary drop in electrical
demand from user sectors.13
 Higher operational costs incurred by the electrical enterprises due
to use of higher unit costs of replacement power plants and/or
higher costs of acquisition of electricity from nearby, idle electrical
systems.14
13
In this regard, it must be remembered that the provision of electricity may be stopped during an
initial short period of time immediately following the disaster (from a few hours to a few days): that
electricity supply will be resumed on a partial basis during the period of repairs, until full system
reconstruction is achieved. Furthermore, that electrical demand from various user sectors may
drop due to extensive damage and destruction of housing, agriculture, mining, industries and
commercial establishments and the subsequent overall decline in economic activity in the
affected area.
14
This is typical of the case when damaged hydropower plant production is substituted
temporarily by thermal power units that have a higher unit cost of operation, or when having to
purchase electricity from nearby unaffected systems at unit prices higher than the affected
enterprise’s own production price levels.
16
________________________________________________________________________
Losses are to be estimated on a calendar-year basis, for the year in which the
disaster occurred and at least the two subsequent years.
Ownership of the damage and losses is to be defined and broken down by public
and private sector, as their impact must be dealt with differently in the overall
analysis of disaster impact.

Maaccrroo--E
Eccoonnoom
mppaacctt A
Annaallyysseess
The overall assessment of disaster impact requires that the impact of the damage
and losses on the macro-economic performance of the affected country or area be
defined. The impact of the disaster on the country’s gross domestic product,
balance of payments and trade, and the fiscal budget is to be estimated. The
latter is of special relevance in the case when electrical the government owns
enterprises or when they receive subsidies for their operation.
The damage assessment should include estimations of the value of repair and
reconstruction items that must be imported from abroad – including equipment,
machinery, construction materials and skilled labor – due to absence of domestic
production.
The impact of losses on the balance of payment when exports of electricity to

other countries must be interrupted must be estimated. In addition, the impact of
losses on the government budget must be ascertained in terms of increased
operational costs and lower revenues when the government directly owns the
electrical enterprises. Whenever subsidies from the government are involved in
the provision of electricity by a private sector enterprise, the assessment should
include the determination of whether the subsidies are to be maintained despite
electricity service interruption or whether their level is modified during the
rehabilitation or reconstruction stages.
In addition, whenever insurance of assets and sales are involved, the conditions
of said insurance are to be ascertained to enable the determination of the net
effects of the disaster on the functioning of the affected enterprise – whether
public or privately owned – and on the macro-economic performance of the
country.
The above information is to be supplied to the specialist in charge of the overall

17
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33.. T
TRRRA
AN
A NS
N SP
SPPO
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A ND
N DC
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OM
O MM
M MU
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UNNIIIC
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S
aa)) G
Geenneerraall
The transport and communications sector15, and its many sub-sectors, sustain
damage and losses after disasters. Damage refers to the total or partial
destruction of physical assets, and losses refer to changes in the economic flows
of the sector that arise as a result of the interruption or modification of transport
and communications flows.
As in other sectors of the economy, damage is measured in physical quantities or

units, to be later converted into monetary value using the rehabilitation or
reconstruction cost of the affected assets. Losses include the higher operational
costs to be incurred upon by the users when adopting different means or modes
of transport.
The most frequent case of losses in this sector occurs in the case of vehicular
traffic that must utilize alternative, longer physical routes that result in higher
costs of operation. Other usual losses are incurred upon when users are required
to use alternative ports or airports that have higher operational costs than the
ones used under normal conditions. In addition, losses may be incurred upon
when certain products cannot reach the intended markets opportunely due to
damage in the normal routes of transport for the goods. That is the typical case of
perishable agricultural and fishery products that do not reach the markets in
time; however, these losses refer to the value of the production that does not
reach the market rather than to higher transport costs, and should be accounted
for under the primary production sector and not under infrastructure.
Special care must be exercised then in separating the damage and losses caused
within the transport and communications sector and those caused in other
sectors that make use of the transport and communications infrastructure and
services. The assessment of damage in this sector must be made by civil or
transport engineer, and the estimation of losses require the services of transport
economists.
The following sub-sectors are to be addressed separately when undertaking an

assessment of damage and losses:
15
Depending on the specificity of the national systems of accounts in the affected country,
communications may be dealt with separately.
18
________________________________________________________________________
 Road transport
 Water transport (including maritime, river and lake navigation)
and ports
 Air transport and airports
 Railroad transport
 Multimode transport
 Communications
In view of the similarities among these sub-sectors, only the procedure for
assessment of road transport will be described in full.
bb)) B
maattiioonn
The following information is essential for the undertaking of a damage and loss
assessment:
 Location and capacities of each of the transport sub-systems as

listed above, and their main individual components;
 Number and capacities of the vehicular stock available in each of
the subs-systems;
 Most recent origin and destination surveys in the affected and
nearby areas;
 Marginal operating costs in each of the transport modes for
different types of vehicles, and
 Annual reports of performance of (private or public)
communications enterprises.
This type of information is normally available from the ministries of public

works or transport, in the respective departments of roads, ports and airports;
from private enterprises that operate roads, railways, ports and airports under
concession arrangements; from building contractors and associations, civil
defense institutions and insurance companies.
cc)) PPoosstt--D
maannccee
A field visit to directly observe the effects of the disaster on the entire transport
and communications sector is essential. In many cases, an initial aerial survey
can provide the necessary overview on which to base subsequent, detailed field
visits by road, boat or foot to key points of the transport and communications
system. During the field visits, the specialist assessing the effects of the disaster
must draw its own conclusions in regard to the post-disaster status of the entire
19
________________________________________________________________________
system, the requirements for rehabilitation and reconstruction, and the manner
in which the system may function or perform under abnormal, port-disaster
conditions.
Needless to say, the specialist entrusted with the assessment must have previous
experience in analyzing post-disaster situations and scenarios in the transport
and communications sector, on which to base the assessment.
dd)) EEssttiim
maattiioonn ooff ddaam
maaggee aanndd lloosssseess
Detailed procedures for the estimation of damage and losses in the road
transport sector are to be described here only, as the effects on other sub-sectors
of transport may be estimated following similar procedures.16
When undertaking the assessment, it must be remembered that the transport and
communications sector is usually one of the most affected in terms of damage
and losses, frequently surpassing the values of housing and agriculture,
depending on the type and extent of the natural phenomena that cause the
disaster. In addition, one should bear in mind that damage is not only sustained
by road surfaces or structure, but by associated bridges, culverts and other
drainage works. Then too, in cases of earthquakes, damage is caused not only by
the initial earth tremor but by aftershocks as well. Floods may cause both the
collapse of structures and the erosion of road surfaces and earth fills.
Another consideration to be kept in mind during an assessment is that not all

damage is evident immediately after the disaster; other damage may become
obvious only after the initial disaster. This is usually the case after long-term
flooding when, after water subsides, the road surfaces may seem to be
undamaged. Generally water seeps through porosities in the pavement surface
and erode the base and sub-base of the road, which is condition is aggravated by
the continued traffic using the road and leads to subsidence that may cause
serious accidents. Another misleading case is that of structures that may seem to
keep their verticality after earthquakes, but their construction materials may
have lost their elasticity and structural capacity. In both cases, the affected
structures must be demolished and substituted promptly.
Other types of natural hazards that may cause damage to road transport are
landslides and mudslides, which may destroy the road carpeting and impede
vehicular traffic.
16
In due time, detailed notes for the other sub-sectors will be developed and added in the
guidance notes.
20
________________________________________________________________________
Damage in this sector can be estimated as the value of investment and

expenditure required for the emergency, rehabilitation and reconstruction stages
after a disaster. In this sector the emergency stage involves the setting up of
provisional works to enable vehicular traffic wherever possible. A typical
example is the installation of a temporary bridge structure to substitute a
permanent bridge that may have collapsed; the construction of alternative
sections of road to substitute those that have been destroyed. These are in fact
cheap structures or works that enable the early “normalization” of traffic.
There are two possible ways to estimate the value of damage. The first one
involves the estimation of the cost required to bring the road to its pre-disaster
conditions (rehabilitation), since it may have been in bad state of repair and
maintenance, with roughness coefficients ranging from average to high, out of
date design criteria, insufficient drainage facilities, and little useful life
remaining. The second one involves the estimation of the replacement cost for
the asset through its full reconstruction or through extensive repairs. The
decision to rehabilitate or to reconstruct depends on a number of factors that fall
beyond the scope of the present guidance notes, but as a rule of thumb it may be
indicated that full reconstruction would only be justified when changing the
design criteria, location and route is required to ensure the continuing
functionality of the road in case of future disasters.
In the case of rehabilitation, repair works are undertaken in affected sections of

the road that have sustained non structural damage to promptly restore pre-
disaster traffic capacities. In the design and execution of rehabilitation works,
modern methodologies are normally used which differ from the ones used in the
original design of the affected works, in order to increase design capacity and to
reduce vulnerability. Rehabilitation works, however, do not imply changes in the
original route followed by the road, or increases in the original traffic capacity.
Reconstruction on the other hand usually involve adopting a different route than
the pre-disaster one with the purpose of reducing vulnerability, as well as using
significant changes in design, construction and technologies to be able to meet
present and future traffic demands.
In order to reduce vulnerability in both rehabilitation and reconstruction works,

the height and span of bridges must be increased to be able to absorb the highest
feasible expected river stage; approaches to bridges must be duly protected from
flood erosion; other drainage works must be designed with sufficient capacity to
withstand the different actions of nature; and adequate slope protection works
must be included to avoid landslides.
21
________________________________________________________________________
During the field surveys, the transport specialist must ascertain the extent and
cost of rehabilitation or reconstruction of road transport works, based on the type
and severity of damage. The physical and traffic absorption characteristics of
each affected component must be combined with the unit cost of rehabilitation or
reconstruction, as may be required.
Unit costs for rehabilitation, duly taking into consideration the required design
modifications to reduce vulnerability, may be obtained from the Study and
Design and Maintenance Departments or Units in the Transport or Public Works
ministry or agency, in the cases where they would be entrusted with the task. In
the case where rehabilitation will be entrusted to private contractors, unit costs
may be obtained from several private enterprises that work in the sector.
Unit costs for reconstruction can only be obtained after a detailed design of the
new infrastructure has been completed. However, preliminary estimations may
be obtained from Planning and Design Departments of the Public Works
ministry or agency that may have recently developed similar new projects for
construction.
Table 3-1
Ranges in the cost of rehabilitation and reconstruction of two-way roads
(US Dollars per kilometer)
Type of work Range in Cost

Rehabilitation
Dirt road, flat terrain 4,000 – 5,000
Dirt road, undulating terrain 5,000 – 6,000
Dirt road, mountainous terrain 6,000 – 8,000+
Gravel road, flat terrain 12,000 – 14,000
Gravel road, undulating terrain 15,000 – 18,000
Gravel road, mountainous terrain 18,000 – 21,000+
Paved road, flat terrain 22,000 – 25,000
Paved road, undulating terrain 25,000 – 28,000
Paved road, mountainous terrain 28,000 – 32,000+
Reconstruction
Dirt road, flat terrain 8,000 – 10,000
Dirt road, undulating terrain 10,000 – 18,000
Dirt road, mountainous terrain 18,000 – 25,000+
Gravel road, flat terrain 45,000 – 50,000
Gravel road, undulating terrain 50,000 – 65,000
Gravel road, mountainous terrain 65,000 – 80,000+
Paved road, flat terrain 100,000 – 150,000
Paved road, undulating terrain 150,000 – 180,000
Paved road, mountainous terrain 180,000 – 250,000+
Source: ECLAC
22
________________________________________________________________________
As an aid to the specialist involved in the assessment of disaster damage, Table

3-1 shows the range of costs for rehabilitation and reconstruction of different
types of roads17. Special care must be exercised by the specialist when applying
these figures, to give due consideration to local conditions.
Damage to vehicle stock – including automobiles, buses, trucks and other smaller
vehicles – must also be estimated during the assessment for the transport sector.
In addition, the construction and maintenance equipment of the sector must be
duly included, but tractors and other equipment in the agricultural sector must
be accounted for under it.
For the estimation of damage to vehicles, the following simple classification may
be adopted to facilitate calculations:
 Light vehicle
 Medium-sized bus
 Large bus
 Rigid, 2-3 axle truck
 Flexible truck (4 or more axle)
The number of destroyed vehicles is usually estimated during the emergency

phase or may be estimated through consultations with transport enterprise
associations and insurance company representatives. Their monetary value may
be estimated on the basis of information given in the Highway Design Model
(HDM) used by the World Bank. When vehicles have only been partially
destroyed, simple assumptions on their repair value must be made in
comparison to their full value, to facilitate estimations; consultations with local
repair shops may be required to ascertain typical unit costs under assumed
conditions.
Losses are also sustained in the transport sector after disasters, over the time that
is required for the rehabilitation and reconstruction of transport works: their
value may exceed that of damage and in some cases may lead to overall inflation;
hence, the importance of their estimation. Losses in this sector refer to higher
transport costs that are incurred when longer alternate routes are necessary,
when alternate modes of transport are adopted, and when transport flows are
fully interrupted.
17
This table has been developed by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the
Caribbean for use within the LAC region. Similar values may be used in other developing worlds
located in different regions.
23
________________________________________________________________________
In order to estimate the losses, three key elements are required: the volume flows
of traffic and the expected higher unit operating costs involved over the time
required for the rehabilitation or reconstruction to take place.
In regard to the time of rehabilitation and reconstruction, the usually accepted

time periods range from a minimum of three months for full rehabilitation, to
about six months for the construction of alternate short road sections, through 1
to 5 years for full reconstruction (involving mitigation through redesign and
reinforcement) of entire roads.
To estimate the flows of traffic that will be involved in the assessment of losses,
the traffic patterns and volumes under non-disaster conditions must be known,
and projections must be made of the expected temporary changes of flow
brought about by the disaster. The pre-disaster traffic flows can be obtained
directly from the local authorities through the appropriate division or unit of the
Transport or Public Works ministry or agency, using the most recent survey of
origin and destination, duly updated when necessary. The post-disaster traffic
flows must be derived by the transport specialist in close cooperation with the
local counterparts, bearing in mind the time required for rehabilitation and
reconstruction of the affected roads.
Table 3-2
Marginal operating costs of different types of vehicles
In different types of road conditions
(US Cents per vehicle-kilometer)
Type of vehicle
Type of Type of Cars and Medium Large Flat bed Rigs and
road terrain other light size buses and other trailer
vehicles buses trucks trucks
Paved Flat 29 - 32 63 - 69 80 - 91 107 - 126 139 - 154
roads Undulating 30 - 33 65 - 75 112 - 120 125 - 156 155 - 181
Mountainous 31 - 34 69 - 80 144 - 157 156 - 182 156 - 225
Gravel Flat 44 - 56 106 - 126 135 - 163 179 - 220 203 - 243
roads Undulating 49 - 63 111 - 136 157 - 189 180 - 225 204 - 267
Mountainous 46 - 67 114 - 144 197 - 234 184 - 249 207 - 246
Dirt roads Flat 44 - 56 90 - 111 125 - 147 179 - 223 203 - 243
Undulating 45 - 63 92 - 113 127 - 162 180 - 226 206 - 246
Mountainous 46 - 57 96 - 113 134 - 176 184 - 249 207 - 267
Source: ECLAC
The marginal operating cost of vehicles varies depending on the type of vehicle,
type of terrain and quality of road surface. They include different cost
components, such as fuel, repairs, tires, depreciation, crew salaries, additional
time of passengers, etcetera. These operating costs must be available in the
24
________________________________________________________________________
affected country for their direct application in the estimation of losses. In fact,
planning departments of the Transport or Public Works ministries or agencies
usually have the required information. Should this information not be available,
use can be made of data shown in Table 3-2, duly adjusted to local conditions by
the transport specialist, which provides the ranges of typical values of marginal
operating costs for different road conditions and for the main types of vehicles in
developing countries of the Latin America and Caribbean region18. The range
indicated goes from good to bad state of conservation of the road surface, using
roughness as the main parameter.

mppaacctt A
Annaallyysseess
The overall assessment of disaster effects requires that the impact of the damage
and losses on the macro-economic performance of the affected country or area be
defined. The impact of the disaster on the country’s gross domestic product,
balance of payments and trade, and the fiscal budget is to be estimated. These
estimations are to be made regardless of whether the transport facilities and
services are government owned or under concession to private enterprises.
The damage assessment should include the necessary breakdowns so that

estimations can be made of the value of rehabilitation and reconstruction items
that must be imported from abroad – including equipment, machinery,
construction materials and skilled labor – due to absence of domestic production.
Estimations must be made of the impact of losses on the country’s balance of
payments and trade, through the assessment of any significant amounts of
increased imports or decreased exports of fuels for the transport sector arising
from the disaster. In addition, the impact of losses on the government budget
must be ascertained in terms of increased operational costs and lower revenues
when the government directly owns the transport enterprises and services.
In addition, whenever insurance of assets are involved, the conditions of said

insurance are to be ascertained to enable the determination of the net effects of
the disaster on the functioning of the affected enterprise – whether public or
privately owned – and also on the possible receipt of re-insurance proceeds that
would improve the balance of payment of the country.
The above information is to be supplied to the specialist in charge of the overall

18
These ranges have been developed by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the
Caribbean for use in developing countries of said region.
25
________________________________________________________________________
D
D)) SSO
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A LS
L SEEECCCTTTO
OR
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11.. H
HOOU
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N G
G
aa)) G
Geenneerraall
The housing sector includes housing units in both urban and rural areas. These
housing units and the household goods they contain may sustain total or partial
destruction after disasters. In addition to the damage to assets in the sector,
disasters also generate changes or losses in the flows of the economy.
Damage is measured in physical terms and is later converted into monetary units
in terms of the repair or replacement cost of the affected or destroyed assets, to
the same standards of construction they had prior to the disaster 19. Losses in this
sector normally refer to the costs of providing temporary shelter after the
disaster as well as other unexpected expenditures and lower revenues involved
in the use of housing units.
Architects or civil engineers are usually required for the assessment of damage in
this sector; economists are required for the estimation of the losses.
bb)) B
maattiioonn
The following information must be obtained to provide the baseline required for
an assessment of the housing sector:
 Data on the number and characteristics of the existing housing unit stock
in the area affected by the disaster, as well as of their typical household
goods, broken down by urban and rural areas
 Prevailing unit costs for repair and construction of housing units and
replacement value of typical household goods, at the time of the disaster
 Average values of monthly rental of housing units in the affected area.
19
When estimating post-disaster needs, however, the cost of reconstruction will be estimated in
order to build the destroyed or damaged housing units using improved quality and disaster-
resilient standards, as part of the “building back better” concept, if the chosen reconstruction
strategy so requires.
26
________________________________________________________________________
This information is usually available in the most recent population or housing

census as well as in the most recent household survey, both of which are
conducted by the Statistical Institute of the country. Since the census and
household surveys are not necessarily conducted on the same year of the
disaster, projections of information to the year of the disaster may have to be
made for the assessment, using population growth rates. Data on unit repair and
construction costs for housing, and replacement costs for household goods may
be obtained from local contractors and local markets during the assessment,
respectively.
Based on the above information, a typology of housing units must be developed

for the affected area during the assessment, using such criteria as the size of the
housing unit, the construction materials used, and whether they are occupied by
their owners or rented out to third parties. Normally, defining three to five types
will suffice, depending on the diversity of housing in the country; this should
include multi-family and individual family homes, as well as urban and rural
homes.
cc)) PPoosstt D
maannccee
A field trip to ascertain the effects of the disaster on the sector is to be undertaken
in order to get acquainted with the situation and to enable the quantification of
damage and losses.
On the basis of existing reports and using data obtained during the field survey,
it should be possible to estimate the number of housing units of each pre-defined
type that have been fully or partially damaged. Verification of the household
goods content for each type of housing unit should also be done during the field
survey. Consultations should be held with private contractors and with
government officials involved in the construction of housing units in order to
obtain unit costs for repair and construction of the different types of housing
units identified, and local markets are to be visited in order to ascertain current
replacement costs for typical household goods.
Another important issue to deal with is the estimation of the extent, time frame
and costs involved for setting up and running temporary shelter schemes to
accommodate affected people that are not residing with relatives and friends as a
result of the disaster.
27
________________________________________________________________________
dd)) E
Essttiim
maattiioonn ooff D
Daam
maaggee aanndd L
Loosssseess
Damage should be estimated as the cost to repair and rebuild the number of
housing units that may have been partially or totally destroyed plus the value of
replacing the household goods that were similarly destroyed. To do this, the
number of units in each type of housing unit identified must be combined with
the estimated repair and reconstruction unit costs that will enable building back
the units to the same level of quality and extent they had prior to the disaster.
The costs of replacing the destroyed household goods must also be added into
this estimation of damage.
It must be remembered here that the unit costs for repair, reconstruction and
replacement of destroyed and damaged assets are those prevailing at the time of
the disaster, still unaffected by scarcity or speculation. Adjustments for eventual
multi-year inflation are to be introduced later on when reconstruction needs are
estimated.
In order to estimate losses, a realistic calendar of repair and reconstruction must

be made first, based on an examination of the capacity of the construction sector
in the affected country or area, which combines as well the local availability of
construction materials, equipment and labor, and considerations about other
possible constraints on reconstruction execution such as timely financing
availability. This should provide the timeframe for the duration and phased
discontinuation of the temporary shelter scheme, and the normalization of the
sector conditions.
The following losses are typical of the housing sector and must be estimated:
 The cost of the temporary shelter scheme, over the timeframe that was
previously defined, including
 Cost of land acquisition in those cases where no public lands
were available to set up the shelter camps;
 Cost of temporary setting up of water and sanitation and
electricity services for the shelter camp;
 In certain cases, transport to and from the shelter camp to
the city, if they are provided free to sheltered people;
 Cost of food, when it is provide free to sheltered people.
 The cost of demolition of destroyed or damaged housing units and of
collection and environmentally safe disposal of rubble20;
20
The cost of demolition and removal of rubble is estimated assuming removal up to the adjacent street.
The subsequent cost of transport and disposal to other areas is normally included under the assessment of
28
________________________________________________________________________
 The loss of rental proceeds for those housing units that are under a rental
scheme, over the entire time period when they are being repaired or
rebuilt.

mppaacctt A
Annaallyysseess
The assessment team in the housing sector must make additional estimations in
this sector that may have an impact at the macro and micro levels.
For the macro-economic analysis, the following figures must be delivered to the
macro-economist of the team:
 The imported component of housing reconstruction costs (comprising the

items that are not produced locally and must be imported from abroad),
expressed in percentage terms (%) of the total reconstruction needs once
they have been estimated, to be used for the analysis of impact on the
balance of payments;
 The estimated share of the central government in the costs of the
temporary shelter scheme, and the same for the cost of demolition and
removal of rubble, to be used for analysis of impact on fiscal budget; and
 The estimated loss of rental revenues that the private sector owners will
sustain while rented houses are being repaired or rebuilt, to be used by
the macro-economist for the estimation of GDP impact.
For the analysis of personal or household impact analysis, the following

estimates should be made and delivered to the appropriate expert:
 The value of any increase on rental payments that families must
meet when rented homes have been destroyed and cannot be used
until reconstructed; and
 Any higher cost of transportation incurred by family or household
members during their temporary occupation of shelter camps or
alternative housing arrangements.
environment sector. The assessment teams of the housing and environment sectors must coordinate to
ensure there is no duplication of estimates and also that the total cost is duly considered in the assessment.
29
________________________________________________________________________
22.. EED
DU
D UC
UCCA
AT
A TIIIO
T ON
O N
N
aa)) G
Geenneerraall
In this sector, all levels of education – including pre-school, primary, secondary,

technical, and university – are to be included, and must be addressed separately.
Disasters may destroy or damage physical assets and cause changes or losses in
economic flows.
Existing physical facilities – including school and other associated buildings and
their contents – may be fully or partially destroyed due to the action of the
natural phenomenon that causes the disaster. The value of damage is estimated
in terms of physical units that may be totally or partially destroyed, and
combined with the unit costs of repairs or reconstruction of buildings, and with
the replacement cost of the goods that were contained in the buildings at the time
of the disaster, assuming that the goods are to be restored to the same quality
and standards they had prior to the disaster.21
Losses refer to possible higher costs and lower revenues that may be incurred in
the sector as a result of the damage to the physical assets, and over the time
period required to repair, rebuild or replace the destroyed or damaged assets.
The assessment team for the sector should include an architect or civil engineer
to estimate the value of damage to assets, as well as a sociologist and an
economist for the estimation of the losses.
bb)) B
maattiioonn
The following data must be obtained for the assessment of the education sector:
 Number and characteristics of existing schools, by type of building and

level of education, as well as their typical furniture, equipment and
education materials, broken down by urban and rural areas, and by public
and private sector;
21
In this case, as in that of the housing sector, if the post-disaster reconstruction strategy
involves the “building back better” concept, reconstruction needs will be estimated using
additional costs required to ensure improved quality standards and disaster-resilient construction
norms.
30
________________________________________________________________________
 Normal calendar of school year, including indication of any short holidays

within the year;
 Fees charged to students in private and public sector schools;
 Prevailing costs of repair and construction of education buildings and
replacement costs of furniture, equipment and education materials, at the
time of the disaster;
 Number of teachers available in private and public sector schools.
This type of information is usually available from the Ministry of Education in

the affected country, both from public and private institutions, and may also be
available in the most recent population census. In regard to unit costs of repair
and reconstruction of education buildings, information may be collected from
both private contractors and from the government ministry entrusted with the
building of schools. Information on replacement costs of furniture, equipment
and education materials may be obtained both from the Ministry of Education
and from local markets in general.
As in the case of the housing sector, based on the above information, a typology
of schools must be developed for the affected area, using criteria such as level of
education, number of students, type of construction materials used to build
schools, location in urban and rural areas, and other factors. Usually, three to five
types of schools must be defined for the assessment, and their unit costs
ascertained.
cc)) PPoosstt--D
maannccee
To enable the estimation of damage and losses for this sector, use is to be made
of available damage reports – no matter how partial they may be – in
combination with additional information collected by the assessment team
during special field survey visits to the affected areas.
This should enable to estimate the number of units that may have been partially
or totally destroyed due to the action of the disaster, for each school type that
had been predefined, as described in the previous section. Verification of the
furniture, equipment and education materials contents of each type of school
must also be made during the field visits. Consultations with private contractors
and government officials should also be made during the field survey visits to
ascertain unit costs of repair and construction for the different types of schools
and other ancillary buildings, as well as visiting local markets to ascertain
prevailing unit costs for furniture, equipment and education materials used in
the schools.
31
________________________________________________________________________
Additional questions to be answered during the field visits include:
 The use of schools as temporary shelter for the homeless and the likely
duration of such measure;
 The likely duration of the suspension of classes in affected schools and in
schools used as shelters:
 The possible, more intensive utilization of undamaged school buildings to
continue school activities and avoid longer periods of education
interruption, including establishing more than one shift in each school and
the related additional costs incurred, as well as the possibility of using
rented buildings to be used as classrooms, whenever feasible; and
 The cost of provision of food to students at schools, which may be
financed by the government, if any.
dd)) EEssttiim
maattiioonn ooff D
Daam
The estimation of damage is to be made on the basis of the number of schools of

different types that may have been partially or totally destroyed by the action of
the disaster, combined with the unit values of repair and construction prevailing
at the time of the event22, plus the costs involved in replacing the destroyed
furniture, equipment and education materials that were similarly affected.
To estimate the losses, a realistic calendar of repair and reconstruction of

physical facilities, as well as replacement of furniture, equipment and education
supplies, must be prepared by the assessment team. To do this, it must be kept in
mind that the capacity of the construction sector – which will have been assessed
by the housing sector team – is usually limited and may not be sufficient to
rebuild at the same time all different types of buildings that may have been
affected across the board in all sectors. In addition, the timely availability of
funding for repair and reconstruction must be included in the development of
the calendar to be developed. The above will provide the time frame for the
estimation of the losses in this sector, including the duration of the temporary
arrangements for provision of education to the students.
22
But which prevailed just prior to the occurrence of the disaster. Any possible inflation due to
scarcity and speculation is to be added when reconstruction needs are estimated, together with
any possible higher unit costs due to building schools using improved or disaster-resilient
standards, as set forth in the reconstruction strategy.
32
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The following are the typical losses in the education sector that must be
estimated:
 Any additional costs involved in the temporary education scheme, such as

 Temporary rental of premises; and
 Paying overtime to teachers and other education-related personnel,
whenever several shifts in the education schedule are established.
 The cost of repairing schools that have been subjected to overuse due to
their temporary utilization as shelters;
 The cost of demolition and removal and disposal of rubble;
 Possible savings in the government budget of the sector for the non-
provision of food to students, which would result in a cost to be
transferred to the households over the time period of the stoppage of
classes (which will be used in the subsequent analysis of disaster impact at
the personal or household level);
 Possible losses in revenue in privately owned schools over the time period
of stoppage of classes;
 Possible costs involved in the accelerated training of new teachers to
replace those that may have died during the disaster.

mppaacctt A
Annaallyysseess
The assessment team in the education sector must make additional estimates that
may have an impact at both the macro-economic and the personal or household
levels, and provide them as inputs to the members of the assessment teams that
are working at estimating disaster impact at those levels.
For the purpose of the macro-economic impact analysis, the following items
must be estimated:
 The value of the imported component of education reconstruction and

replacement costs (for the items that are not locally available and must be
imported from abroad), expressed in percentage terms (%) of the total
reconstruction needs as soon as they have been estimated, to be used for
the balance of payments analysis;
 The estimated share of the central government post-disaster higher
expenditures – that are over and above the regular budget appropriations
for the sector – in repairs to schools used as temporary shelters,
33
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demolition and removal of rubble, payment of overtime to personnel of

the sector, to be used for the analysis of fiscal budget;
 The estimated possible savings to the government budget due to the non-
provision of food to students over the period of stoppage or interruption
of classes, to be used also for the analysis of fiscal budget impact and also
for the analysis of personal or household impact.
For the purpose of the analysis of impact at the household or personal level, the
aforementioned amounts of savings to the government budget which will result
in higher than normal costs for food provision to children during the period of
interruption of classes, that are to be met by the affected families, are also to be
given to the respective assessment team23. In addition, estimates may be made of
the value of the longer hours of reproductive work that women may have to
spend to take care of children whenever schools have been temporarily shut
down after disasters, as they represent opportunity costs to women’s productive
work.
23
In cases where the government provides free transportation to students to and from schools,
this would also entail additional savings to the government budget over the time of school
interruption; where parents must pay for this transportation costs for children to attend schools,
they will sustain savings of these amounts during the time of interruption of classes. Should this
be the case, these additional estimates – that are not mentioned in the text above – must be
made and provided for the analysis of impact at the macro and micro levels.
34
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33.. H
HEEEA
AL
A LT
LTTH
H
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Geenneerraall
After disasters of different kinds, the health sector may sustain significant
damage to its physical assets as well as losses in its economic flows arising from
the need to attend to increased workloads imposed by the disaster. Damage
refers to the total or partial destruction of buildings and their contents; losses
refer to changes in the flows of the sector that are due to the temporary absence
of the assets and to increased requirements of medical attention after the disaster.
As in all other sectors, damage is first measured in physical units and is then
converted into monetary terms using the replacement cost for the asset. Losses
are measured as the change in operational costs for the provision of medical care;
they normally include higher expenditures and lower revenues, over and above
the normal budgetary appropriations for the health sector.
During an assessment for this sector, damage is to be estimated for:
 Hospitals, health centers, other buildings;

 Furniture;
 Medical equipment; and
 Medical supplies24.
And losses are to be estimated including:

 Cost of treatment of injured (physical and psychological injuries);
 Possible lower revenues in damaged hospitals and other centers; and
 Possible unexpected costs to prevent, monitor and control epidemics
Architects or civil engineers, based on an individual analysis of each major

component of the sector assets, usually undertake damage assessment. Losses are
usually estimated by a combination of public health specialists and economists,
including epidemiologists.
24
This refers to medical supplies that are directly destroyed during the disaster, and should not
be confused with the higher utilization of medical supplies and drugs that is required to treat
patients during and after the disaster, which are accounted for separately as losses.
35
________________________________________________________________________
bb)) B
maattiioonn
To undertake a damage and loss assessment for the health sector, the following
baseline information must be collected beforehand:
 The characteristics of all existing hospitals and other health centers,

including bed capacity and other indicators, in the affected area;
 Existing similar capacities in nearby locations that may be used as
alternative, temporary solutions to provide health care;
 A description of the health management system in the affected area,
describing its financing sources (whether free medical attention is given
and paid for by the government, or whether individuals must pay for the
medical attention and/or with the help of medical insurance schemes),
and annual government budget appropriations;
 Historical information on morbidity rates for different diseases for the
affected and nearby unaffected areas;
 Unit costs of medical attention, as either outpatient or in hospital care, for
the typical diseases prevailing in the affected area;
 The above information is to be obtained for both public and private sector
facilities and systems.
cc)) PPoosstt--D
Diissaasstteerr SSeeccttoorr SSiittuuaattiioonn aanndd PPeerrffoorrm
maannccee
A field trip is to be undertaken in order to become acquainted with the effects of

the disaster on the sector’s capacity and ability to meet post-disaster demands for
health care in the affected area, and to estimate damage and losses.
On the basis of the findings of the field survey as well as from existing reports,
the number and capacity of each hospital or health center that may have been
totally or partially destroyed are to be defined. In addition, the field trip should
enable the verification of the equipment, furniture and medical supplies that may
have been destroyed or rendered useless. Direct interviews with private
contractors or government officials involved in construction and repair of
hospitals and health centers should be included during the field trip in order to
ascertain unit costs to repair or reconstruct those assets, as well as to determine
replacement costs of furniture, equipment and supplies.
36
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During the field survey also, the necessary consultations with Health sector
authorities are to be held in order to ascertain the need for establishing
temporary field hospitals or health care centers, in case the permanent structures
have been destroyed or significantly damaged, and to determine the likely
duration of such temporary schemes and their involved costs.
Furthermore, discussions with proper health authorities are to be made with the
purpose of ascertaining the likely occurrence of epidemics or increased
morbidity rates of typical diseases in the affected areas, as well as the costs
involved in monitoring morbidity levels, outreach campaigns to assist in
informing people about increased prevention measures, as well as in any
possible programs to prevent and control any possible outbreaks arising from the
new environmental conditions after the disaster. These costs should include
those expenditures that are over and above the regular budget of the sector and
which arise directly and indirectly from the disaster.
A calendar is to be developed describing the manner in which the capacity of the

sector is to recover after the disaster, including the timeframe required to build
back the destroyed assets and the time required for monitoring and controlling
any possible changes in morbidity levels arising from the disaster. To estimate
the time required for rebuilding or repairing the sector’s infrastructure and re-
establishing services, considerations must be given to the capacity of the
construction sector of the affected country to build all required physical assets
after the disaster, as well as the timely availability of construction equipment,
materials and labor (as was indicated for the case of the housing sector).25
dd)) EEssttiim
maattiioonn ooff D
Daam
The value of damage in this sector is to be estimated on the basis of the cost to
rebuild or repair the hospitals and other health facilities that were totally or
partially destroyed, as well as the replacement value of the furniture, equipment
and supplies that were also destroyed, assuming that they are being replaced
with the same capacity and quality they had prior to the disaster.26 The value of
damage to buildings is to be estimated on a one-by-one basis, in view of the
importance and typical differences of each one. The cost of replacement of
25
It must be recalled that reconstruction after a disaster would normally require rebuilding many
physical assets from several sectors, and that the capacity of the construction sector and the
availability of financing may be limited or delayed, respectively.
26
The higher costs involved in building back to improved, disaster-resilient standards and in
retrofitting existing structures are to be included as part of the subsequent estimation of needs in
the assessment.
37
________________________________________________________________________
building contents – including furniture, equipment and medical supplies

destroyed – must be included as part of the damage estimates.
In order to estimate losses, the overall reconstruction calendar for achieving

normalcy in the provision of medical and health care must be used, together with
the estimated calendar for monitoring and controlling possible occurrence of
outbreaks where the sector experts deem them possible.
The following types of losses should be considered for possible occurrence in this
sector, and must be estimated:
 Higher costs of medical and health care (over and above the regular
budget of the sector) for
 Overtime payment of health sector personnel, where appropriate;
 Provision of medical supplies and medicines, over and above the
normal level of use, that must be used to replenish regular stocks;
 Treatment of physically and psychologically injured persons, over
the time span that may be necessary; and
 Transport costs of injured to alternative, unaffected nearby
hospitals or health centers, when appropriate.
 Cost of demolition of buildings and environmentally adequate removal
and disposal of debris;
 Cost of setting up and operation of temporary hospitals, when required;
 Prevention and mitigation costs including:
 Outreach campaigns to inform population;
 Monitoring possible increase in morbidity of selected diseases (over
and above regular budget appropriations);
 Possible vaccination campaigns, when necessary; and
 Vector control campaigns, when necessary.
 Direct costs of outbreak control, when they occur, broken down by each
type of disease; and
 Losses in health sector revenues, that may occur due to:
 Destruction of buildings and temporary interruption of health care
services; and
 Possible decrease in number of patients due to interruption of
transport services and access.
These estimations of damage and losses should be made for both public and
private sector facilities.
38
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miicc aanndd ffoorr PPeerrssoonnaall IIm
mppaacctt A
Annaallyysseess
The health sector assessment team must make additional estimations in this
sector that may have an impact at both the macro-economic and personal or
household levels, and deliver them to the appropriate assessment team members
handling impact analysis.
For the macro-economic analysis, the following figures must be estimated and
delivered to the macro-economist in the assessment team:
 The estimated component of the health sector reconstruction costs

(including the items that are not produced locally in the affected country
and that will have to be imported from abroad), expressed in percentage
(%) terms of reconstruction needs once they have been estimated, to be
used for the impact analysis on the balance of payments;
 The estimated component of recovery (including the items of prevention
and mitigation for the sector) that must be imported from other countries
in the absence of local production, to be used for the analysis on balance of
payments;
 The total value of higher government expenditures and lower revenues,
over and above it regular budget appropriations, to be used for the
analysis of fiscal sector impact.
For the analysis of personal or household impact, estimates of the increased costs
of obtaining medical or health care should be made, and delivered to the person
(s) in charge of the subject.
39
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C
C)) PPR
ROOD
DUUC
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ORRSS
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AGGR
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The agricultural sector usually consists of 4 sub-sectors: crops, livestock, fisheries

and forestry. This guidance note deals only with the crops, livestock and fisheries
sub-sectors as part of the agricultural sector. In addition, this guidance note also
deals with the agro-industry sub-sector, which may or may not be part of the
agricultural sector in many countries, depending on the organization of their
system of national accounts.
A
A.. T
Thhee C
Crrooppss SSuubb--SSeeccttoorr
Typical Effects of a Disaster: Damage
The typical effects of a disaster that can be classified as total or partial damage to
physical assets in the crop sub-sector include, but not limited to, the following:
 Agricultural land (e.g. soil erosion, sedimentation, salinity);

 Drainage system and infrastructure;
 Irrigation system and infrastructure;
 Irrigation equipment (e.g. engines, electric motors, pumps);
 Storage facilities for crop output and agricultural inputs;
 Stored and/or harvested crop output;
 Stored agricultural inputs;
 Farm buildings and sheds;
 Farm equipment and machinery;
 Internal farm roads;
 Perennial crops (e.g. plantations).
This list of typical damage is indicative but not fully inclusive. The list of actual
damage, however, would vary by the type, severity and location of the disaster.
Typical Effects of a Disaster: Loss
The typical effects of a disaster that can be classified as losses in the flows of
goods and services in the absence of damaged physical assets before their repair,
rehabilitation and reconstruction in the agricultural sector include, but not
limited to, the following:
40
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 Crop production losses;

 Loss of standing full annual crop; and
 Loss of standing full perennial crop;
 Crop yield decline;
 Decline in standing annual crop yields; and
 Decline in standing perennial crop yields;
 Crop output quality decline (main as well as by-product)
 Higher production costs;
 Higher use of inputs required; and
 Higher use of irrigation required.
Again, this list is only an indicative list and is not exhaustive. Furthermore, the
actual losses would vary by the type, severity and location of a disaster.
Alternatively, the typology of typical damage and loss effects of a disaster on the
annual and perennial crops can be described as follows:
Type of Effect Nature of Effect Annual Crops Perennial Crops

Damage Crop damage (total or 
partial)
Crop loss Crop loss  
Crop loss over time 
Yield decline Crop yield decline  
Crop yield decline over 
time
Quality Crop output quality  
decline decline
The crop loss or yield decline over time refers to the damaged perennial crops
since these crops need to be replaced and it will generally take several years
before these new plantations or trees actually start producing or bearing fruits.
The actual loss would of course depend upon the type, severity and location of
the disaster. Finally, decline in the quality of crop output (main product or by-
product) may not result in lower yield or lower production but it will result in
lower revenues due to lower market prices for lower quality of crop produce.
Seasonality in Crop Production
Unlike other productive sectors and sub-sectors of the economy (e.g. industry,
commerce and services), crop production is highly seasonal. Generally, there is
an optimum time for sowing seeds, transplanting seedlings and harvesting. If
these activities are not performed at the optimum time, crop yields are lower
41
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than what would be possible otherwise. Consequently, the criteria used for
estimating crop production losses will vary depending upon the time when a
disaster occurs. In tropical countries, crop calendar is little more flexible than in
countries with temperate climates. However, even then seasonality remains a
very important concept for determining crop production losses. In some
countries, a particular crop may be grown more than once in a year. For example,
in Bangladesh, farmers can plant three rice crops in a year (Aus, Aman and Boro).
Even in Bangladesh, however, each of these rice crops is different in terms of
seasonality, agronomic practices, crop varieties and likely yields. Unlike the
annual or perennial crops, sugarcane is a unique crop since the cropping cycle
lasts one year and the roots sprout for the next crop season. However, sugarcane
is replanted every 3-4 years.
Initial Analysis of the Crop Sub-sector
In order to provide a broad socio-economic perspective and accurately estimate

damage and loss due to a disaster, it is very important to first undertake an
initial analysis of the crop sub-sector. The importance of the crop sub-sector may
vary from one country to another and even from one region in a country to
another. The initial analysis of the crop sub-sector should deal with, but not
limited to, the following aspects:
 Socio-economic importance
 Contribution to GDP;
 Contribution to employment;
 Contribution to food security; and
 Contribution to exports.
 Type of crop production
 Subsistence or commercial;
 Annual or perennial;
 Irrigated or rain fed;
 Labor intensive or mechanized;
 Single or multiple cropping;
 Specialized or diversified; and
 Cropping pattern.
 Calendar of crop production
 Annual crops (planting to harvesting); and
 Perennial crops (flowering to harvesting).
However, one must keep in mind that while the crop sub-sector may be very
important nationally, it may not be very important in the region where the
disaster has occurred and vice versa. Similarly, the type of crop production in the
42
________________________________________________________________________
disaster region of the country would determine the nature and magnitude of
damage and production losses. Finally, by superimposing the time of disaster on
the crop calendar, it would be possible to define whether the crop has been fully
lost or only partially lost due to decline in crop yield.
In addition, there is also a need to analyze (i) farm size and agricultural land
distribution and the relative share of the landless and the small and marginal
farmers in order to get a sense of equity; and (ii) the quantity and quality of
physical assets (list is provided above) and their distribution by farm size groups
and regions or provinces. This analysis is important for two reasons i.e. to
determine the impact of a disaster on crop productivity and production and to
determine the impact of a disaster on rural poverty.
Pre-disaster Situation in the Crop Sub-sector
In order to properly estimate damage and loss in the crop sub-sector, it is very
important to first develop the baseline information for each of the crops (both
annual and perennial crops) with respect to the following:
 Historical production by crops at the national level

 Area;
 Average yield; and
 Production.
 Historical production by crops and regions (or provinces or districts)
 Area;
 Production.
 Projected production by crops at the national and regional levels
 Area;
 Production.
This statistical information is not only essential for estimating production losses
caused by the disaster but it is also important to validate information received
from various sources. In addition, there is a need to have a complete inventory of
all the physical assets used in the crop sub-sector by regions or provinces. In the
absence of appropriate baseline information on physical assets, it may not be
possible to accurately estimate the damage to physical assets. This information
should be available with the national ministry of agriculture, provincial
departments of agriculture and the statistical agencies.
43
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Post-disaster Situation in the Crop Sub-sector
Following the disaster, it is important to determine the post-disaster situation in

the crop sub-sector i.e. for both the annual and perennial crops. This would
require the determination of the extent and severity of disaster effects on annual
and perennial crops in terms of area and yield in the regions or provinces
affected by the disaster. In addition, there is a need to take an inventory of all the
physical assets used in the crop sub-sector that have been affected by the
disaster, including soil (land); agricultural infrastructure such as buildings,
internal farm roads, irrigation system; farm machinery and equipment, including
irrigation equipment; perennial crops; and agricultural stocks (such as seeds,
other inputs and produce) stored at the farm. This information should be
available with the national ministry of agriculture and the provincial
departments of agriculture. This information, however, needs to be
supplemented through surveys, field visits, satellite maps and interviews with
farmers.
Estimating Damage to Physical Assets
The damage to physical assets in the crop sub-sector can be estimated by taking
an inventory of the damaged assets and determining the extent of their damage.
As indicated above, these physical assets can be classified into six broad
categories:
 Soil (agricultural land);

 Irrigation system;
 Agricultural infrastructure;
 Agricultural machinery and equipment;
 Agricultural stocks; and
 Perennial crops.
With the exception of perennial crops (which will be discussed later), the damage
to physical assets can be estimated by multiplying the number of units of fully
damaged physical assets by the replacement value (for soil, irrigation system and
infrastructure) or by the prevailing market price (for agricultural machinery,
equipment and stocks). On the other hand, damage to partially damaged but
repairable physical assets can be estimated by multiplying the number of units of
partially damaged physical assets by the prevailing average cost of repair or
rehabilitation. The estimated value of full and/or partial damage to individual
physical assets (across regions or provinces or districts) can then be aggregated
44
________________________________________________________________________
in order to obtain the estimated value of total damage to physical assets in the
crop sub-sector that is caused by the disaster.
Estimating Production Loss in Annual Crops
Criteria for Determining the Magnitude of Loss: If a disaster occurs at the end of
the crop season and the annual crop is affected by the disaster, the crop
production loss is equal to
 Full loss if the crop is fully destroyed; or

 Partial loss if only crop yield declines.
On the other hand, if the disaster occurs at the beginning of the crop season and
the annual crop is fully destroyed, depending on whether the crop can be
replanted without affecting the quality and quantity of the next crop, the crop
production loss is equal to
 Full loss if the crop cannot be replanted; and

 Partial loss that is equal to the value of investments that were made
before the crop was destroyed by the disaster.
There is a need to apply these criteria to each of the annual crop that is affected
by the disaster.
Procedure A for Estimating Full Crop Production Loss: This procedure involves
the following steps for estimating production loss for the individual annual crops
that have been fully destroyed by the disaster:
 Determine baseline (historical) data for

 Crop area;
 Average crop yield;
 Crop production; and
 Farm gate price for crop produce.
 Obtain pre-disaster forecast for
 Crop area;
 Crop yield; and
 Crop production.
 Develop post-disaster forecast for
 Crop area;
 Crop yield;
 Crop production; and
 Current farm gate price of crop produce.
45
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Crop production loss is the difference between the value of post-disaster crop
production and the corresponding value of pre-disaster forecast for crop
production. However, if neither the historical data for crop area, yield and
production nor the corresponding forecasts are available at the level of provinces
or districts that are affected by the disaster, this procedure is not applicable. In
this case, we need to follow an alternative approach to estimate production loss
for annual crops that may be caused by the disaster.
Procedure B for Estimating Full Crop Production Loss: This procedure involves
the following steps for estimating the production loss for individual annual crops
that have been fully destroyed by the disaster:
 Determine post-disaster affected

 Crop area;
 Average crop yield for a normal year; and
 Current farm gate price of crop produce.
Crop production loss is equal to the value (using current farm gate price) of lost
production as determined by the affected crop area and the average crop yield
for that crop in a normal year. In order to validate the estimated crop production
loss from the disaster, it may be advisable to use both of these procedures, if
necessary data is readily available.
Procedure for Estimating Production Loss due to Decline in Crop Yields: For a
particular individual crop that has experienced only partial production loss due
to a decline in crop yield caused by the disaster, the production loss can be
estimated as follows:
 Determine disaster affected crop area (say, A);

 Determine average crop yield in a normal year (say, Y);
 Determine crop production in a normal year (A*Y);
 Determine % decline in average crop yield (say, p);
 Determine likely crop production loss (p*A*Y);
 Determine current farm gate price (P);
 Determine value of likely crop production loss (P*p*A*Y).
In other words, the estimated production for a particular individual crop

following the disaster would be the estimated production in a normal year minus
the likely production loss. The value of production loss for this crop can then be
estimated by multiplying the production loss with the current farm gate price for
that crop. The value of production losses for individual crops can be aggregated
to obtain the total production loss due to decline in yields.
Estimating Production Loss in Perennial Crops
46
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As far as perennial crops (plantations or trees) are concerned, following a

disaster, there are likely to be three scenarios i.e. full destruction of the perennial
crops (and likely loss in production over a period of time till the new crop starts
producing); full production loss of the standing crop; and partial production loss
due to a decline in yield.
Full Destruction of Perennial Crops: Under this scenario,
 Damage is equal to the cost of replanting the destroyed perennial crop

and the replacement trees or plants must be of equal or better quality; the
same is true for a pasture which is essentially considered a perennial crop
or an asset; and
 Loss is equal to the sum of the value of the full standing crop production
loss plus the value of production losses over a period of time that is
required for the trees or plants to fully mature and start production or
bearing fruit.
Full Production Loss: Under this scenario, there is no destruction of trees or

plants due to a natural disaster and the loss is equal to the value of full
production from the standing crop. The estimated value would be obtained by
multiplying the affected area under the perennial crop with average unit yield in
a normal year and with the average farm gate price.
Partial Production Loss due to a Decline in Yield: Under this scenario, the
production loss is determined by following the same procedure as has been
outlined above for a decline in yield of the annual crop. However, there is one
difference. Depending on the nature and intensity of the disaster, the yield for
perennial crops may remain below normal yield for several years. For example, if
the perennial crop in the coastal areas is affected by the intrusion of brackish
(saline) water (due to water surge caused by the cyclone, as in the case of
Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh), yield may remain below normal levels for several
years.
Public and Private Sector Distribution of Damage and Losses
In general, the crop sub-sector is in the domain of the private sector since farmers
are private entrepreneurs and they own and/or lease land for cultivation from
private landowners. In this context, any damage to the physical assets or
production loss to annual or perennial crops that is caused by disaster on farms
47
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owned or operated by private farmers is in the domain of private sector. Even in

the centrally planned economies, land is generally cultivated by the private
farmers. However, in most low-income developing countries, selected
agricultural infrastructures (particularly irrigation infrastructures such as canals
or flood control embankments) are built and maintained by the public sector.
Any damage to this infrastructure will of course be in the public sector. The
damage or losses could also be at the public sector crop research stations or
experiment stations. The main logic for dividing the damage and losses into the
public and private sectors is to determine the relative shares of the impact of a
disaster on the public and private sectors and assign the primary responsibility
for recovery and reconstruction following the disaster. Even when most of the
damage and losses are in the private sector, governments generally play a very
active role in financing (from their own budget and/or grants, credits or loans
from bilateral and multilateral donors) recovery and reconstruction programs.
Geographical Distribution of Damage and Losses
The extent of geographical coverage of a particular country by a disaster depends

on the type and intensity of the disaster. More importantly, however, it also
depends on the size of the country. For example, frequent cyclones generally
cover most of Haiti (a small island nation) but may cover only a part of
Bangladesh or India. In order to develop an appropriate recovery and
reconstruction strategy, however, it is very important to determine the location-
specific impact of the disaster in terms of damage, loss, macro-economic impact
and socio-economic impact. In case several provinces and districts are affected, it
may also be important to assign responsibilities for recovery and reconstruction
to the respective local, provincial and central governments. Furthermore, it is
important to allocate recovery and reconstruction resources based the actual
damage and loss rather than on political considerations. Estimating damage and
loss by geographical areas provides an objective criterion to allocate scarce
resources following a disaster, irrespective of the sources of the financial
resources.
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The concept and broad principles for damage and loss assessment for the
livestock sub-sector are very similar to the damage and loss assessment for the
crop sub-sector that has been described above. However, a brief description and
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salient features of the damage and loss assessment for the livestock sub-sector is
provided in this section. Livestock sub-sector is a very important sub-sector for
low income developing countries since it deals with high value agriculture (e.g.
poultry and dairy), provides regular cash flow (poultry and dairy), an important
source of cash income for the landless and women (part of the backyard
economy) and makes an important contribution to human nutrition. Therefore,
any damage and loss to the livestock sub-sector has serious consequences for
post-disaster levels of rural household income and rural poverty.
Like the crop sub-sector, the main categories that are likely to be totally or
partially damaged by a disaster are livestock infrastructure, animals, pasture,
equipment and machinery and stocks. More specifically, the most commonly
damaged items are the following:
 Animal deaths;
 Pasture;
 Livestock sheds;
 Storage buildings;
 Stored feed and fodder; and
 Livestock equipment and machinery.
The damage is valued at the replacement value (e.g. infrastructure) or the

prevailing market price (e.g. animals). In case of partial damage to infrastructure,
the cost of repair and rehabilitation is taken into account. As in the case of the
perennial crops, the value of destroyed pasture is estimated as the cost of
replanting the pasture.
The typical losses in the livestock sub-sector are similar to the losses for the
perennial crops in the crop sub-sector. More specifically, the most common losses
are the following:
 Production loss
 Loss of milk production;
 Loss of meat production;
 Loss of egg production;
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 Loss of honey production;

 Loss of wool production; and
 Loss of draft power due to stress.
 Higher production costs
 Higher use of inputs (e.g. feed); and
 Veterinary cost (medicine and consultation).
Like for the perennial crops, production losses must be calculated for the number
of years that will take for the young livestock to grow, mature and start
producing milk, meat, eggs, honey, wool or draft power, following the death of
animals during the disaster. For animals used for draft purposes, losses will be
estimated by using the value of annual services. However, animal or poultry
birds used for meat only, the current average market price can be used to
estimate the value of dead animals or birds but it would be included as part of
the damage.
Initial Analysis of the Livestock Sub-sector
It is essential to undertake an initial analysis of the livestock sub-sector before

estimating damage and loss due to disaster. The size, scope and the role of the
livestock sub-sector may vary by country and by regions in a country. The initial
analysis of the livestock sub-sector should deal at least with the following
aspects:
 Contribution to food security;
 Contribution to exports; and
 Contribution to nutrition.
 Type of livestock production
 Subsistence or commercial;
 Role of pastures, fodder and feed;
 Specialized or diversified; and
 Role of animals used as draft.
There is also a need to get a perspective of the role of livestock sub-sector in the
overall agricultural economy in terms of its contribution to household income by
farm size categories. This must be supplemented by information on the type and
quantities of physical assets in the livestock sub-sector by provinces.
Pre-disaster Situation in the Livestock Sub-sector
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The pre-disaster situation in the livestock sub-sector should focus on the baseline
information related to the following:
 Historical production by type of livestock at the provincial and

national levels
 Number of animals, birds or bees;
 Production.
 Projected production by type of livestock at the provincial and national
levels
 Number of animal, birds or bees;
 Production.
It is also important to get information on the type of breeds for animals popular
with the farming community in the disaster-affected area. Market value and
productivity may vary a great deal depending upon the breed. Pre-disaster
information related to the livestock sub-sector is obtained from the ministry of
livestock or ministry of agriculture if livestock is part of this ministry, livestock
departments at the provincial levels and the statistical agencies.
Post-disaster Situation in the Livestock Sub-sector
Following a disaster, it is important to take an inventory of the livestock sub-

sector and the likely damage and loss in the affected areas. This of course
depends on the type, extent and severity of the disaster. Cyclone surges in the
coastal areas and flash floods are likely to kill animals through drowning and
long droughts are likely to kill animals through starvation. Furthermore,
disaster-induced stress on animals may reduce their weight and productivity
such as milk and meat yields. In addition to the likely production loss, there is a
need to take an inventory of the damage to physical assets, including livestock
infrastructure, equipment and machinery and stored input, feed and fodder
stocks on the farm. Post-disaster information related to the livestock sub-sector
should be obtained from the ministry of livestock (or agriculture) and livestock
departments at the provincial levels. This information should be supplemented
by information obtained through surveys, satellite maps, field visits and
interviews with livestock farmers in the disaster-affected areas.
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The physical assets in the livestock sub-sector can be classified into the following
6 broad categories:
 Animal deaths;
 Pasture;
 Livestock sheds;
 Storage buildings;
 Stored feed and fodder; and
 Livestock equipment and machinery.
The damage to these physical assets can be estimated by multiplying the number
of fully damaged units with the replacement cost (e.g. sheds and buildings) or
current market price (e.g. dead animals, poultry and honey bees, feed and
fodder). On the other hand, damage to partially damaged physical assets can be
estimated by multiplying the number of partially damaged units by the average
unit cost of repair or rehabilitation. The estimated value of damage to individual
physical assets can be aggregated to obtain the value of total damage for each
province and for the country as a whole.
EEssttiim
maattiinngg PPrroodduuccttiioonn LLoossss
For estimating production loss in the livestock sub-sector, there are likely to be
two scenarios i.e. full production loss due to death of animals, birds or bees; and
partial production loss due to a decline in unit yield that is caused by stress, lack
of shelter, food shortage and any health problems that are attributed to the
disaster.
Full Production Loss due to Death of Animals, Birds or Bees: Death of male
animals used for meat and broilers will be included only in the damage part of
the livestock sub-sector. However, production loss will be estimated for the male
animals used for draft purposes, animals used for meat, cows and buffaloes used
for milk, poultry layers for eggs and honey bees for honey. Production loss is
equal to the value of lost draft services, meat, milk, eggs or honey over a period
of time till the young replacements are mature and start producing. The lost
value for milk production, for example, can be estimated by multiplying the
number of dead cows with annual average milk yield and current market price
for milk. It can be done for estimating the value of production loss for meat, eggs,
honey or draft power. However, in order to accurately estimate the value of
production loss, it is important that only that number of cows should be used in
calculations that were in actual production. Same is true for poultry layers and
draft animals.
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Partial Production Loss due to a Decline in Yield: Under this scenario, the
production loss is determined by following the same procedure as has been
outlined for estimating production loss from decline in yield for perennial crops.
During disasters, the livestock may come under stress, may not have appropriate
shelter, may lose weight due to lack of feed or fodder or may become sick.
Hence, depending on the nature and severity of the problem, the decline in yield
can be only for one year or it can last for several years. Generally, over time,
yield will improve as the conditions for livestock become normal. The lost value
of milk (and/or lost value of other livestock products) can be estimated by
multiplying the number of affected cows with reduced milk yield and farm gate
price for milk.
Public and Private Sector Distribution of Damage and Losses
Like the crop sub-sector, almost all the livestock sub-sector is in the private
sector. Possible exceptions could be centrally planned economies or livestock on
the public sector research or experimental stations. In other words, most of the
damage and production loss in the livestock sub-sector is in the private sector.
Similarly, almost all the physical assets are in the private sector as well. Unless
government provides necessary support, it is the responsibility of the private
sector entrepreneurs to finance recovery and reconstruction activities. However,
in many cases, government can make available credit lines to assist livestock
farmers to rebuild their assets and restore production, either directly through the
development banking system or indirectly by persuading private banks to
provide such financing to the livestock farmers.
Geographical Distribution of Damage and Losses
In order to adequately and equitably plan for the follow up recovery and
reconstruction activities that may be financed by the government, donors or
NGOs, it is important to estimate the magnitude of damage and losses by
various provinces, regions and districts. Since lots of the livestock production
activities are part of the backyard economy, disaster is likely to affect the
household income of poor households, particularly women. This has important
implications for an increase in poverty among the households and regions
specializing in livestock production. In order to meet the increasing demand for
fresh milk (or demand for other livestock products) in the urban areas, livestock
may be kept near the urban centers. Hence, it is very important to include any
damage and losses to the livestock near the urban centers.
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Again, the concept and broad principles for damage and loss assessment for the
fisheries sub-sector are similar to the damage and loss assessment methodology
outlined for the crop and livestock sub-sectors. However, the key points will be
discussed in this section. Like the livestock sub-sector, the fisheries sub-sector is
very important in low income developing countries since it deals with high value
agriculture (e.g. fish and shrimp aquaculture), an important source of cash flow
and household income for the landless fishers community (including women)
and makes an important contribution to human nutrition as well as export
earnings. In other words, any damage and loss to the fisheries sub-sector has
serious consequences for the rural household income and rural poverty. Fisheries
sub-sector broadly consists of (a) aquaculture for fish or shrimp; (b) artisan
fisheries (both inland capture and marine); and (c) commercial fisheries (mainly
marine). The relative importance of each of these fisheries may vary by country
or provinces.
Like the other two sub-sectors, the broad categories that are likely to be totally or
partially damaged by a disaster are fisheries infrastructure, stored fish,
equipment and stocks. More specifically, the most commonly damaged items in
the fisheries sub-sector are the following:
 Fish and/or shrimp ponds;

 Hatcheries (fish and/or shrimp);
 Fries and fingerlings;
 Freezers and storage buildings;
 Fish and fish feed;
 Engines and boats; and
 Fisheries equipment.
The damage is valued at the replacement value (e.g. infrastructure) or the

prevailing market prices (e.g. fish, feed. equipment).
The typical losses, due to disaster in the fisheries sub-sector, are the following:
 Production loss
 Loss due to decline in fish yield for aquaculture; and
 Loss due to decline in fish catch.
 Higher production costs
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 Higher input cost for aquaculture;

 Higher production cost due equipment rental; and
 Higher cost of fuel to reach fish after their migration to other
areas.
Unlike, perennial crops or animals, which take several years to mature and start
production if damaged by a disaster, all the production losses in the fisheries
sub-sector are seasonal or annual. Most of the damaged physical assets for
fisheries can be fixed or replaced and production can resume relatively quickly.
Initial Analysis of the Fisheries Sub-sector
The relative importance and the type of the fisheries may vary by country and
region in a country. As a background for the damage and loss assessment, the
initial analysis of the fisheries sub-sector is extremely important and should deal
with the following aspects:
 Contribution to food security;
 Contribution to nutrition; and
 Contribution to exports.
 Type of fisheries
 Aquaculture
 Artisan fisheries; and
 Commercial fisheries.
The initial analysis should provide a broad perspective of the role of the fisheries
sub-sector in the agricultural sector as well as in the overall economy. It should
also outline the major challenges, opportunities and the production potential of
the sub-sector by type of fisheries. Finally, the analysis should also include
details and a summary of the national physical assets by type of fisheries for the
fisheries sub-sector by provinces.
Pre-disaster Situation in the Fisheries Sub-sector
The pre-disaster situation in the fisheries sub-sector should focus on the baseline
information related to the following:
 Historical production and possible exports by type of fisheries at the
provincial and national levels
 Fish fries and fingerlings;
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 Aquaculture;
 Inland capture fisheries; and
 Marine capture fisheries.
 Projected production and possible exports by type of fisheries at the
provincial and national levels
 Fish fries and fingerlings;
 Aquaculture;
 Inland capture fisheries; and
 Marine capture fisheries.
Since the prices vary a great deal depending upon the type of fish, it is important
that production information is broken down by fish species. Baseline information
should also be collected for the key physical assets. It is very important that the
pre-disaster information is accurate and complete for the area that has been
affected by the disaster. The main sources of information are the ministry of
fisheries (or agriculture), departments of fisheries at the provincial levels,
seafood export associations, and the statistical agencies.
Post-disaster Information in the Fisheries Sub-sector
In order to estimate the damage and loss of production, it is important that the
post-disaster information on the physical assets and production in the fisheries
sub-sector, particularly in the disaster-affected area, is accurate and complete.
Unlike the other sub-sectors, the fisheries sub-sector faces a unique situation with
respect to fish fries and fingerlings. For example, during heavy floods, individual
fish farmers and hatchery owners may lose fish fries and fingerlings and thereby
experience substantial financial losses. However, most of the fish fries and
fingerlings may merely swim to other parts of the country (and some may go to
the sea). As a result, the country may suffer only a minimum financial loss in the
form of fries and fingerlings. Supposedly, these fries and fingerlings will mature
and will be caught by the fishers operating in the inland, coastal and marine
waters.
First, it is important to estimate the number of different type of physical assets

(such as ponds, hatcheries, fries, fingerlings, stores, stocked fish or fish feed, and
fishing equipment) that have been fully or partially damaged by the disaster. The
damage to these physical assets can be estimated by multiplying the number of
fully destroyed units with their unit replacement value (e.g. infrastructure) and
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current market price (e.g. fish or fishing equipment). On the other hand, damage
to partially destroyed physical assets can be estimated by multiplying the
number of partially damaged units by their average unit cost of repair or
rehabilitation. The value of the total damage due to disaster can then be
estimated by aggregating the values of fully destroyed assets to those of partially
damaged assets.
Estimating Production Loss
For estimating production loss in the fisheries sub-sector, there are likely to be
three scenarios i.e. partial to full production loss in aquaculture ponds; full
production losses in inland capture fisheries; and full production loss in marine
capture fisheries.
Partial to full production loss in aquaculture ponds: Depending upon the

damage to the pond, contamination of pond water and loss of fries and
fingerlings, fish yield per pond may decline between zero and 100%. The yield
decline may vary from one pond to another. Hence it is important to estimate
average yield decline for aquaculture, separately for fish and shrimp. The value
of the production loss can be estimated by multiplying the decline in yield with
area under aquaculture that has been affected by the disaster and prevailing
market prices for fish or shrimp that are paid to fish farmers and fishermen.
Full production loss in inland capture fisheries: Depending on the loss in the
number of fishing days caused by either disaster or damage to the fishing
equipment, there will be full production loss for certain number of days or
partial loss in terms of annual loss or this could be full production loss for the
whole year. Similarly, the value of lost production can be determined by
multiplying the production loss with the prevailing market prices for the
particular type of fish that has been lost due to disaster.
Full production loss in marine capture fisheries: The methodology is same as

above except that it is applied to production loss in marine capture fisheries
production. In this case, however, there is a need to make a distinction between
the production lost by the artisan fishermen using small fishing boats and the
commercial fishermen using large fishing boats and trawlers.
Public and Private Sector Distribution of Damage and Loss
Like the other two sub-sectors of agriculture, private fishers and entrepreneurs
dominate fisheries sub-sector. However, some fisheries infrastructure (including
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hatcheries) may be located on fisheries research or experiment stations, which

are likely to be in the public sector. Therefore, it is important to estimate the
relative shares of damage and losses in the public and private sectors. This is
essential to develop appropriate recovery and reconstruction strategy. It is also
important to keep in mind that most fishers (not hatchery owners or farmers
dealing with fish or shrimp aquaculture) in a country are generally landless and
among the poorest segments of the society. On the other hand, shrimp
aquaculture is highly profitable and in some countries (e.g. countries in Latin
America) shrimp aquaculture for export is the norm and shrimp may be
exported in large quantities to the US, Japan and other countries.
Geographical Distribution of Damage and Loss
Again, it is very important to determine the geographical distribution of damage

and production loss caused by the disaster by provinces or regions or districts in
a country. This information is critical to design the recovery and reconstruction
strategies based on objective information and allocate necessary budgetary
resources, grants, credit or loans accordingly. As has been indicated above,
fishers (not necessarily shrimp aquaculture farmers) may be amongst the poor
segments of the society and every effort must be made to make sure they get all
the necessary financial assistance to promote recovery following the disaster.
Since water is the main requirement for the fisheries sub-sector, fisheries is
generally located near lakes, rivers, in the coastal areas and in the marine waters.
In deltaic countries like Bangladesh, fisheries sub-sector is all over the country
but it is concentrated near lakes, rivers, coastal areas and marine waters.
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Agro-industry is an important link between the agricultural sector and the

industrial sector of an economy. In terms of its organization within the
government, agro-industry may be part of the ministry of agriculture or the
ministry of industry. In Bangladesh, agro-industry is part of the ministry of
commerce. Similarly, as part of the national accounting system, it can be part of
different sectors in different countries. In terms of its importance to the economy,
it varies a great deal depending on whether the agricultural sector is subsistence,
semi-commercial (or semi-subsistence) or commercial. Agro-industry is highly
developed in a country with commercial agriculture and least developed in a
country with subsistence agriculture. Most low-income developing countries in
the world are somewhere between these two extremes. Consequently, before
initiating a damage and loss assessment in a particular country, it is important to
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get a perspective on the status and importance of the agro-industrial sector and
its relationships with the agricultural and industrial sectors.
Supply Chain Scenarios
Depending on the level of commercialization, part of the crop, livestock and

fisheries production is kept by the farmer to meet household consumption needs.
In a country with subsistence agriculture, on an average, farmers may keep over
90% of the produce to meet their household consumption needs. On the other
hand, in a country with commercial agriculture, farmers may keep only less than
10% of the produce to meet their household consumption needs. The remaining
marketable surplus of the farm produce is sold directly or indirectly to the agro-
industry for further processing, packaging and distribution. The agro-industry
generally sells processed agricultural products to the wholesalers (commerce) at
a price that is higher than the farm gate price. The difference in these two prices
accounts for the processing cost, marketing cost and the marketing margin for
the agro-industry. The wholesalers in turn sell the processed agricultural
products to the retailers (commerce) at a price that is higher than the wholesale
price. The difference in these two prices accounts for the marketing cost and the
marketing margin for the wholesalers. In some cases and for some commodities,
agro-industry may sell directly to retailers or to both wholesalers and retailers.
Depending on whether the country is a net importer or exporter of a particular
agricultural product, trade also enters at the levels of agro-industry and
wholesalers. Trade can deal with either raw material or processed commodities.
Damage and Loss in the Agro-industry
Depending on the disaster, the physical assets of the agro-industry can be totally
or partially destroyed. This includes processing plants, warehouses, transport
facilities, access roads, buildings and stocked raw material as well as processed
products. On the other hand, any production losses in the agricultural sector also
affect the level of production in the agro-industrial sector as well as the
commerce in the supply chain. For example, any reduction in the production of
paddy rice (or rough rice) due to floods or cyclones will reduce the supply of rice
as raw material to the rice processing mills. As a result, the existing rice
processing mills will not be able to operate at full capacity and some of them
may not even be able to operate at all. A similar case occurs for sugarcane and
sugar mill industry where any losses in sugarcane production or reduction in the
sugar content of sugarcane that is caused by a disaster will result in lower
production of sugar in the sugar mill industry. Same thing (i.e. low capacity
utilization rate and reduced production) happens to other respective processing
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plants in the agro-industry if there is a reduction in production (and hence sales

to the agro-industry as raw material) and/or quality in the crop, livestock or
fisheries sub-sectors following a disaster. The magnitude of these losses,
however, depends on whether agriculture is commercial or subsistence.
Furthermore, the value of total losses may even be higher depending on the
nature and magnitude of forward and backward linkages in the supply chain.
Estimating Damage and Production Loss
The value of total damage to physical assets can be estimated by taking the
number of destroyed assets and multiplying them with the replacement value
(e.g. for infrastructure) or current market price (e.g. stored raw material or
finished products). Similarly, the value of partial damage to physical assets can
be estimated by multiplying the number of partially damaged units with the
average unit cost of repair or rehabilitation. This can be done for each affected
province or districts and then aggregated to obtain the total value for damage
and loss at the national level.
On the other hand, the value of production loss in the agro-industry can be
estimated as follows:
 From the crop, livestock and fisheries sub-sectors, obtain the amount
of production losses due to disaster at the national level by
commodity;
 Determine the average shares of agricultural production for each crop,
livestock and fisheries products that are kept at the farm for household
consumption and average shares that are sold to agro-industry;
 Estimate the amount of production loss as a raw material input to the
agro-industry;
 Based on the national input-output tables, determine the agro-
industry/agriculture ratio and based on this ratio estimate the loss in
production of agro-industry;
 Estimate the value of agro-industrial production loss by multiplying
the amount of production lost with the ex-factory wholesale price for
that particular product;
 On the other hand, if the input-output ratios for the concerned
products are not available, use the difference in the farm gate price and
wholesale price for a particular commodity to determine the value
added; and
 Estimate the value of agro-industrial production loss for a particular
commodity by multiplying the production loss as a raw material with
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the price difference between the farm gate price and the wholesale
price.
Distribution of Damage and Loss
As in the case of agricultural production losses, it is very important to determine

the distribution of damage and loss in the agro-industry by public and private
sectors as well as by province or regions and districts. There is a need to keep in
mind that the agro-industry for a particular product may or may not be located
in the same area where the disaster affected agricultural raw material for that
agro-industry is produced. Again, this has implications for designing the
recovery and reconstruction strategies and allocating financial resources
following the disaster.
Summary of Damage and Loss
In order to get a perspective of the damage and loss caused by a disaster on

agriculture, it is important to aggregate the damage and loss for each of the
agricultural sub-sectors and prepare a summary table, as follows:
Sub-sector Total Loss (Yr … Loss (Yr Total Loss

Damage 1) N)
Crops
Livestock
Fisheries
Total
Agriculture refers to the sum of the damage and loss in the crop, livestock and
fisheries sub-sectors. The sum of the damage and loss in agriculture and agro-
industry provides the total damage and loss in production agriculture as well as
the agro-industry that depends on agriculture for its raw material. Loss would
continue till such time that the damaged physical assets are fully reconstructed
but the length of time would vary (anywhere from 1 to 4 years or longer in some
cases) depending on the time it takes for the replaced physical assets to start
production. Before preparing the summary table, it is important to check
whether agro-industry is included as part of the agricultural sector or as part of
the industrial sector in the national accounts of a particular country.
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EE.. IInnppuuttss ffoorr M
mppaacctt A
Annaallyysseess
In addition to the damage and loss, a disaster may also have macro and socio-
economic impacts some of which may last for several years. These impacts
would of course depend on the type and severity of the disaster. These likely
impacts include (a) macroeconomic impact; (b) impacts at the personal and
household levels; (c) impact on food balance and food security; (d) impact on
rural poverty; and (e) impact on the availability of agricultural inputs. In
addition, disasters have a major psychological effect on rural households as well
as on human health, nutrition and productivity, which should be part of the
discussion in the health sector.
Macroeconomic Impacts
The analysis of macroeconomic impact usually covers four of the main

aggregates: gross domestic product (GDP), balance of payments, fiscal budget
and inflation. Based on the damage and loss estimates, it is important that the
assessment team for the agricultural sector (crops, livestock, fisheries and agro-
industry) should also make estimates of the likely impacts on these four
macroeconomic variables i.e. disaster-induced changes in agricultural GDP,
reduced exports, increased imports, higher than normal government expenditure
and likely lower tax revenue. The possible impact on overall inflation would be
estimated once the post-disaster impact data from all sectors becomes available.
Gross Domestic Product: Since GDP and loss due to a disaster are flow concepts,
the estimated magnitude of loss in agriculture (by sub-sectors or an aggregate)
can be used to determine the likely reduction in agriculture GDP or reduction in
agriculture GDP growth rate over the previous year (as well as for GDP in
general) during the year of disaster. However, in order to undertake this
analysis, the losses in individual agricultural sub-sectors must be multiplied by
the value added coefficients in order to calculate the value added losses. These
value added coefficients capture the effect of linkages between the sectors. In
addition to the direct impact of losses on the level and growth of GDP, the likely
indirect impacts of a disaster will also affect the level and growth rate of GDP.
Balance of Payments: As a result of a disaster, the affected country may have to

either import more food or other agricultural commodities and/or reduce
exports of agricultural commodities that the country generally exports. This will
adversely affect the balance of trade (and hence the balance of payments). For a
country that has limited foreign exchange reserves or depends heavily on the
exports of agricultural commodities to earn foreign exchange, the disaster could
have serious macroeconomic consequences.
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Fiscal Budget: Following any disaster, the government may have to allocate
additional budgetary resources (over and above the regular budget
appropriations) to finance emergency relief, recovery and reconstruction work in
the affected agricultural and rural areas of the country. Most low-income
developing countries, however, have limited budgets. In order to finance
activities following a disaster, these developing countries may either have to
increase budget deficits and/or divert scarce financial resources from public
investment for agricultural development to finance the emergency needs in the
rural agricultural sector. In either case, it will have serious consequences for the
annual budget at all levels of the government. Even though the agricultural
sector is not a very good source of government tax revenue, any disaster that
affects agriculture will have serious consequences for government revenue from
the agricultural sector.
Inflation: Depending on the disaster and its impact on both the demand and
supply of goods and services, it is likely to have consequences for the prices of
essential commodities and services and hence inflation. An increase in prices for
affected food commodities following a disaster is a good example. Similarly,
prices for the critical reconstruction material may also increase due to heavy
demand during the reconstruction period. The actual impact on inflation would,
however, depend on the relative share of affected goods and services in the
consumption basket that is used to determine the consumer price index. In other
words, inflation depends not just on the prices of agricultural commodities but
also on the prices for goods and services from all the other sectors of the
economy. Furthermore, any price impact of the disaster is likely to be temporary.
Impact at the Personal and Household Levels
The impact of a disaster on the personal and household levels may be measured
through changes or declines in employment, livelihood opportunities, household
income and gender in the agricultural sector. In order to estimate this impact,
there is a need to supplement the relevant secondary information from the
disaster areas with appropriate randomly selected sample surveys; focus group
discussions; detailed discussions with the local, national and international NGOs
actively operating in the affected area and even satellite maps.
Rural Employment: The production losses caused by the disaster results in

decline in employment in the short and medium-term. This decline in
employment (expressed in terms of person months) in each of the agricultural
sub-sectors can be calculated by multiplying the value of production loss with
the corresponding labor coefficient that relates the value of total production to
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the number of people employed. The decline in employment in the agricultural

sector can be calculated by adding decline in employment in each of the sub-
sectors. This decline in employment will affect both family labor and hired labor.
Similarly, it is possible to calculate decline in employment in agro-industry as a
result of production loss in the agricultural sector. Landless laborers, whose
household income depends on their jobs, will be affected much more by the
disaster than the landowners and regular service employees.
Rural Livelihood Opportunities: The livelihood opportunities in the rural areas

depend primarily on the agricultural and rural non-farm (which depend directly
or indirectly on agriculture) activities. The disaster triggered physical damage to
physical assets and production loss will have significant implications for rural
livelihood opportunities for the marginal and small farmers and the landless
rural households in the short and medium-term. The assessment of the impact on
rural livelihood opportunities, however, would require both qualitative and
quantitative analysis based on focus group discussions and surveys based on
randomly selected farming and rural landless households. In low-income
developing countries with large backyard economies, rural livelihood
opportunities led by women may be impacted seriously.
Rural Household Income: Depending on the type and severity of the disaster,
following the disaster, the average household income for the farmers, rural
entrepreneurs as well as landless rural households will decline as a result of
agricultural production loss, reduction in employment and decline in rural
livelihood opportunities in the agricultural and rural non-farm sectors. Again, an
accurate assessment of the decline in household income would require focus
group discussions and surveys based on randomly selected rural households.
Rural Women: The likely impact of a disaster on rural women varies by country
and depends on the nature and degree of involvement of women in carrying out
agricultural operations and other rural activities. In Asia and Africa, women in
the rural areas are actively involved in agricultural and rural non-farm activities.
For example, a large number of agricultural and rural non-farm agricultural
operations (such as household gardens, dairy, poultry, harvesting, post-harvest
management and marketing) in rural Bangladesh are carried out by the women.
Women are also very active in cash earning backyard economic activities. The
information based on secondary data does not always give an accurate picture of
the role of women. Hence, this information must be supplemented by focus
group discussion and surveys.
Impact on Food Balance and Food Security
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The disasters that have major impact on the agricultural sector generally have
serious consequences for food balance and food security at the national,
provincial, district, village as well as household levels. Until the international
food crisis of 2007, most developing food-deficit countries were gradually
increasing their dependence on trade to meet their food security needs.
However, after the crisis, most of them now would like to increase domestic food
self-sufficiency and/or food stocks to improve their food security and thereby
minimize exposure of their population on the uncertain international market for
the principal food commodities, particularly rice and wheat. Hence, it is very
important to analyze the impact of a disaster on the food balance and food
security at all possible levels, including the national and household levels,
particularly for the low-income food-deficit developing countries.
This analysis would require a careful examination of food requirements (e.g.

human consumption (food), feed, seed, losses and stocks) and elements of food
supply, including domestic food production, stocks (both public and private),
and net imports (imports minus exports). Requirements for increased food
imports have direct implications for foreign exchange needs and balance of
payments. In addition to the adequacy of food supply in physical terms, it is very
important to analyze the implications for access to food by the poor segments of
the society that have been affected by the disaster. In this context, food is also an
important component of national social safety net and food-for-work programs
that generally follow or become even more important after the occurrence of a
major disaster. The likely sources of information related to food balances are the
ministry of agriculture, ministry of food (some countries may have a separate
ministry of food), ministry of trade, commodity trade associations, national
statistical agencies and household income and expenditure surveys.
Impact on Rural Poverty
The existence of poverty in most low-income developing countries is generally a

rural phenomenon. For example, at the national level, approximately 85% of the
poor in Bangladesh and Yemen live in the rural areas and mostly depend on
agriculture for their livelihood. Any natural disaster that seriously affects
agriculture and rural population has serious consequences for increasing rural
poverty. The small and marginal farming and landless rural households are
generally part of the poor households. Disasters have serious consequences for
poverty for these households. In many countries, urbanization is very rapid and
rural poor are migrating to the urban areas in search of jobs. Consequently, large
urban metropolis areas may also have a large share of poor people that may be
affected by the disaster. The existence of poverty, however, varies a great deal
from one region to another, from one productive sector to another and from rural
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to urban. For example, poverty profile (in terms of percent of population below
the poverty line) by regions and sectors in Bangladesh during 2000 is
summarized below:
Division Rural Poverty (%) Urban Poverty National Poverty

(%) (%)
Barisal 40
Chittagong 48
Dhaka 45
Khulna 51
Rajshahi 61
Bangladesh 53 37 50
Rural poverty rate as well as the number of poor people is much higher in the
rural than in the urban areas. Consequently, the total number of poor living in
the rural areas is very high, almost 85% in Bangladesh. The poverty rate is almost
50% higher in Rajshahi Division (the so called bread basket of Bangladesh has the
highest poverty rate) than in Barisal Division (the lowest poverty rate). Even
under normal conditions, poverty is very high in Bangladesh. With the
increasing frequency and intensity of disasters due to floods and cyclones in
Bangladesh, the likely impact of these disasters on rural poverty would be very
high.
Due to the damage and losses caused by a disaster, many of the affected people
and households may experience significant income declines, which may increase
the size of population below the poverty line in the affected areas as well as in
the country as a whole. In other words, the burden on the national and
provincial governments will increase in order to implement programs that will
provide support to the disaster-affected households and thereby reduce poverty.
An increase in disaster-induced poverty will also affect the timeline to achieve
the millennium development goals (MDGs) at the provincial and national levels.
Impact on the Availability of Agricultural Inputs
A disaster can affect the quality and quantity of agricultural inputs, including
damage to agricultural land; death of draft animals; damage to the irrigation
system and equipment; damage to stored seeds, feed, fodder and fertilizer;
agricultural equipment and machinery. Unless compensated from other parts of
the country (which will not be possible in case of damage to land or the irrigation
system anyway), the availability of most of the affected agricultural inputs will
decline and market prices will go up. In case of Bangladesh, for example,
monsoon rains and floods generally affect the Aman season rice crop soon after it
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is planted. Since most of the rice crop is transplanted, this reduces the supply of
good quality seedlings and production of rice crop. It takes about 3-4 weeks for
the seedlings to be ready for transplanting. Hence, depending on when the flood
comes, either the whole crop is lost (if there is no time to replant) or agricultural
inputs used for the crop are lost and have to be replaced (if crop is affected at the
early stages). Under these circumstances, disaster can result in lower revenues
from crop production due to production loss (loss of whole crop or decline in
crop yield) and/or higher production costs. Again, one must be very careful in
making sure that there is no double accounting. There is also need to keep in
mind that it may take several months before critical agricultural inputs could be
imported and made available to farmers. This will certainly have negative
consequences for crop, livestock or fisheries production during the season in
question.
FF.. R
Reelleevvaanntt PPrriicceess ffoorr M
Maakkiinngg D
DaaLLA
A EEssttiim
maatteess
Depending on the category of assets, type of losses and level in the supply chain,
different prices are relevant and are used to make appropriate damage and loss
estimates, as part of the DaLA methodology, following a natural disaster. These
various prices are briefly discussed below.
Farm gate prices: The farm gate prices refer to the prices received by the
producers (farmers, livestock owners, and fishers) for the produce that they sell
at the farm or in the nearby market. The average farm gate prices are used to
estimate the value of production loss for the crop, livestock and fisheries sub-
sectors following a disaster.
Wholesale Prices: The wholesale prices refer to the prices at which the
wholesalers, traders or agro-industry sells agricultural commodities (processed
or unprocessed) to the retailers. The difference between the wholesale and the
farm gate prices generally reflects the cost of transforming raw agricultural
produce into processed products, marketing cost and the marketing margins. In
other words, it is a reasonably good estimate of the value added by the agro-
industry.
Retail Prices: The retail prices refer to the prices at which the retailers sell
agricultural products to the consumers or agricultural inputs to the producers.
The difference between the wholesale and the retail prices generally reflects the
cost of commercialization and is inclusive of marketing cost and marketing
margins. In some countries and for critical commodities, the government may fix
the retail prices. However, depending on the demand and supply situation, the
actual prices paid by the consumers or producers may be higher than those fixed
by the government.
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Procurement Prices: The procurement prices refer to the prices at which the
government procures (assuming government has a procurement policy in effect)
agricultural commodities after harvest. The procurement prices generally serve
as the floor for the market prices for the relevant commodities. Under these
circumstances, producers tend to suffer loss but face lower market risk since the
procurement prices also serve as the guaranteed prices and the market is assured
by the government procurement agency. The procurement prices are common in
India and Bangladesh and other developing countries.
Import Prices: As indicated above, following a disaster, the country may have to
import certain commodities in order to meet the domestic requirements. This
may include items such as food, agricultural inputs, construction material, feed
and veterinary medicine. The import prices for these items refer to prices that are
paid by the importers for imports and are generally known as CIF (cost,
insurance and freight) prices. Any internal transport and handling costs as well
as any import taxes are on top of the CIF prices and hence must be added to the
CIF price. The total import bill is therefore calculated by multiplying the quantity
imported and the CIF price paid for the imports of a particular commodity.
Export Prices: Most countries have a comparative advantage in exporting certain
agricultural commodities. A disaster may affect adversely the production of
these export commodities. Assuming no change in domestic needs, this will
reduce the amount that may be available for export for these commodities and
hence the export earnings, which are determined by multiplying the quantity,
exported with the FOB (free-on-board) price received. However, any internal
transport and handling cost up to the domestic port must be subtracted from the
FOB price in order to calculate the export earnings for a particular export
commodity.
Replacement Value: None of the above prices are applicable to non-tradable
items that do not enter the market. This includes items such as rural
infrastructure, irrigation system, animal sheds and hatcheries. Replacement
value is based on the cost of replacing these damaged assets. It can be calculated
by adding the cost of all the necessary inputs used and the labor cost. However,
the cost of inputs can be estimated by multiplying the quantity of inputs needed
and the market price for those inputs. Similarly, labor cost is determined by
multiplying the required labor by the going wage rate. In addition, there may be
other costs such as taxes and the cost of equipment. The replacement value,
however, may vary across different parts of the country.
G
G.. A
Apppprroopprriiaattee IInnffoorrm
maattiioonn ffoorr tthhee A
Asssseessssm
meenntt
Depending on the disaster, the damage and loss assessment should begin 2-4
weeks after the disaster. Sometimes floodwater may take even longer to recede.
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During this period, the government should focus on three activities. First, the
work related to humanitarian assistance and relief should be completed. Second,
necessary financial and logistics arrangements for fielding a DaLA mission
should be made. Third, the baseline information and relevant documents should
be collected. In order to successfully complete the DaLA mission for the
agricultural sector, it is extremely important to have all the necessary
information and a team of mission members with the right expertise to
participate in the mission.
Information Requirements
The information requirements for making an appropriate damage and loss

assessment can be grouped into three categories. These are (i) detailed baseline
information (possibly up to 10 years of historical data, including the most recent
year prior to the disaster) on all the physical assets and production activities for
all the relevant sub-sectors of the agricultural sector; (ii) damage and loss
information for each of the agricultural sub-sectors and related activities
following the disaster; and (iii) information related to the projections for
agricultural production and the physical assets for the future, including the
affected year. All this information must be at the national level as well as
disaggregated to the lowest administrative unit possible. This information
should deal with, but not limited to, the following activities:
 Crops: Area, yield and production of various crops (annual and

perennial), use of agricultural inputs, availability of physical assets and
agricultural infrastructure, including irrigation system;
 Livestock: Number, yield and production of livestock, use of livestock
inputs, availability of physical assets and livestock infrastructure;
 Fisheries: Area, yield and production of various types of fisheries, use
of fisheries inputs, availability of physical assets and fisheries
infrastructure;
 Agro-industry: Level of use of agricultural raw material in the agro-
industry, type and location of agro-industry and input-output
coefficients;
 Macroeconomics: Agricultural GDP, overall GDP, value added
coefficients, balance of payments in agriculture, revenue and
expenditure in agriculture and inflation;
 Personal and Household Levels: Population, labor supply, labor
demand, wage rates, employment, unemployment, livelihood
opportunities, level of rural household income and role of women in
agriculture;
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 Food: Production, imports, exports, stocks, social safety net, food-for-

work program, nutrition, hunger, role of dairy, poultry and fisheries,
and role of processed food;
 Rural Poverty: National and regional poverty levels over time and by
rural and urban sectors as well as the criteria for determining poverty
levels;
 Agricultural inputs: Production, consumption, distribution, imports
and exports by type of inputs and location, levels of productivity of
various inputs;
 Agricultural prices: Farm gate, procurement, guaranteed, wholesale,
retail, export and import prices for all agricultural inputs and outputs
as well as marketing of inputs and outputs; and
 Agricultural trade: Exports and imports of agricultural inputs, outputs
and related products by country and mode of transport.
Every effort must be made to make sure that there is no double accounting, no
gaps in critical information and that information is cross checked to ensure its
quality.
Sources of Information
The sources of information may vary by agricultural sub-sector, sector, region

and country. However, the generic and critical list of the likely sources of
information is provided below.
 National and regional statistical agencies;
 Census data (e.g. agriculture, population, credit);
 Household or household income and expenditure surveys;
 Specialized post-disaster field surveys;
 Satellite photographs (before and after the disaster);
 Field visits to the affected areas;
 Government reports on the disaster;
 Reports by UN agencies on the disaster;
 Reports by national or international NGOs;
 Interviews with affected stakeholders; and
 Newspaper articles (local as well as national).
Assessment Team Composition
The composition of the damage and loss assessment team may vary by the type
of disaster and the extent of the likely damage to the agricultural sub-sectors.
70
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However, the following members of the assessment team must be considered

and possibly included:
 Agricultural Economist;
 Agricultural Engineer;
 Agricultural Extension Specialist
 Agronomist;
 Livestock Specialist;
 Fisheries Specialist; and
 Food Technologist.
Ideally, it is very important that these experts have some training in DaLA
methodology, particularly in the context of agriculture. Otherwise, such a
training program should be organized before the actual assessment begins.
Someone representing the statistical agency should also be part of the team.
He/she would serve as the resource person to brief the agricultural team (as well
as other teams) on the type of information that may or may not be available with
the statistical agency and will provide all the necessary information. Finally, it is
very important to make sure that there are no gaps in the statistical information
and information that may be contradictory should pass through the quality
assurance program, with guidance from local experts.
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2. MANUFACTURING SECTOR
aa)) G
Geenneerraall C
Coonnssiiddeerraattiioonnss
The manufacturing or industrial sector is also affected by disasters of every kind,

and may sustain destruction to its assets and also losses or changes in the flows
of the sector’s economy. In addition, some branches of industry – such as the
food-producing industries – that rely in the production obtained from other
sectors of the economy for raw material purposes may sustain production losses
even if no damage may have happened to the industrial facilities.
As in the case of other sectors, damage in industry is measured initially in

physical terms and is subsequently converted into monetary terms by using the
repair, reconstruction or replacement cost of the destroyed physical assets, to the
same quality and quantity standards they had prior to the disaster.27
Losses in the manufacturing sector refer to both decline in industrial output and
increases in operational costs that may arise after and as a consequence of the
disaster. Post-disaster reconstruction, on the other hand, may actually produce
an increase in the demand and production of certain manufactured goods.
The assessment of damage and losses for this sector is more complex than in
other sector’s in view of the usually large number of existing industrial shops, of
different types and size, which may prevail in different branches of industry.
Therefore, a special sample survey of affected industrial establishments is to be
carried out in parallel to the assessment and its results combined with the
existing baseline information in order to cover the entire universe of the sector.
For the estimation of damage in this sector, civil or industrial engineers are
required to be part of the assessment team, while industrial engineers and
economists are required for the estimation of the losses.
27
The possibility of repair, reconstruction or replacement using improved, disaster resilient
standards, as part of a possible strategy of “building back better”, is introduced later when
estimating needs for recovery and reconstruction. Multi-year inflation is also to be introduced into
the estimation of needs whenever the recovery and reconstruction activities are to last for more
than one calendar year.
72
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bb)) B
maattiioonn
The following baseline information on the characteristics and capacity of the

manufacturing sector and its different branches of activity must be obtained to
provide the quantitative basis required for the assessment:
 Number and size of industrial establishments, by branch of industry, existing in

the affected area;
 Typical physical facilities in each of the above, including a description of the
number and capacities of industrial equipment and machinery;
 Information on annual or monthly gross production for each industrial
establishment; and
 Quantitative information on usual destination of manufactured goods, whether it
is for domestic consumption or for export to other countries.
This type of information is normally available in the most recent industrial

survey or census that the country may have undertaken, which may have been
conducted either by the Ministry or ministries of Industry or by the Statistical
Office in the affected country. Further information may be obtained from the
national accounts handled by the national Statistical Office. Since this
information may already be out of date at the time of the assessment, projections
to the current year must be made based on the recent growth rates for the sector.
Additional information may be obtained through contacts with private sector

Chambers or Associations of Industry, which may have full particulars about the
installed capacities and production of their associates. In fact, such private sector
bodies may become partners in conducting the assessment, since they are likely
very keen in defining post-disaster needs for rehabilitation, recovery and
reconstruction.
On the basis of the previously listed information, a typology of industries, by

branch of industrial activity, size, and private and public ownership is to be
defined for purposes of the assessment. The branches of industrial activities to be
analyzed should be defined on the basis of the national accounting system.
cc)) PPoosstt D
maannccee
A field visit to determine the effects of the disaster in the affected industries must
be carried out, in combination with a sample survey of typical industrial
establishments, in order to be able to assess the value of damage and to estimate
losses.
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Any existing reports – however partial in coverage – must be used in conjunction

with the field visit and the sample survey mentioned above, to estimate the
number of industrial establishments of each pre-defined type that may have
sustained total or partial destruction and whose production may be affected
directly or indirectly by the disaster.
The field visits by the assessment team, coupled with the sample survey
questionnaire responses28, should enable to define the average type and value of
damage for each industry establishment type, the time of production stoppage or
decline due to different reasons29, and the likely requirements for recovery and
reconstruction. During the same field visit, unit reconstruction and replacement
costs for repair and rebuilding of physical assets as well as replacement of
equipment and machinery are to be obtained, through interviews with industry
executives and representatives. Any difficulties and limitations foreseen by the
owners of such industries – for instance, in terms of financial and credit
requirements, availability of raw materials and inputs, availability of labor, time
required for replacement of specialized equipment and machinery, etcetera – are
also to be identified.
On the basis of the information thus collected and in combination with the
baseline data on existing physical capacities and normal or non-disaster
production, it will be possible to develop a scenario of how the sector will likely
function after the disaster until full recovery and reconstruction is achieved. This
would include developing separate calendars for the repair and reconstruction of
buildings and other facilities, replacement of equipment and machinery and for
the resumption of normal or non-disaster production levels over time.
dd)) EEssttiim
maattiioonn ooff D
Daam
rebuild or repair the buildings and other associated facilities that were totally or
partially destroyed, as well as the replacement value of the furniture, equipment,
machinery and supplies that were also destroyed, assuming that they are being
replaced with the same capacity and quality they had prior to the disaster.30
28
A copy of the questionnaire developed for this type of sample survey of industrial and trade
shops is enclosed as Annex to these Guidance Notes. It requires only minor adaptation in order
to capture information on the different types of industrial branches existing in the affected country,
which are to be obtained from the system of national accounts.
29
Production stoppage or decline may be due to several possible reasons, such as: destruction
of premises, equipment and machinery; temporary unavailability of inputs such as electricity and
water; temporary unavailability of sufficient labor and of inputs for processing.
30
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In view of the usually very large number, size and type of industrial
establishments existing in the affected area, the damage assessment must rely on
information obtained from the already-mentioned, parallel sample survey to
define average values of damage for each type of industry, and on counts of the
number of each industry type that were either totally or partially destroyed.
Then, an extrapolation of the value of damage to cover the entire universe of
industrial establishments in the affected area or country must be made based on
an assumed ratio of destructed versus total number of industry shops, using
perhaps the same ratio that may have been derived from the housing sector. The
accuracy of this extrapolation of course is of paramount importance, and the
assessment team should devote sufficient time in order to discuss and agree on
such ratio, so that results are reliable.
The estimation of the losses must be made based on several considerations, of

which the time frame for their occurrence is paramount. Losses will normally
occur over the time period required to achieve full reconstruction of premises,
replacement of destroyed machinery, and to obtain full availability and flow of
raw materials and inputs. Losses are likely to occur due to:
 Damage to the industrial capacity, in terms of destruction of buildings,

equipment and machinery;
 Temporary stoppage of production due to lack of electricity or water;
 Temporary disruption of raw material availability and inflow;
 Temporary unavailability or shortages of labor;
 Future unavailability of raw materials in agro-industrial plants due to future
losses expected in agriculture, livestock and fishery production;31
 Insufficiency or non-existence of working capital at the enterprise; and
 Possible changes (decline or increase) in demand of the manufactured goods,
which may arise from possible generalized income decline of the population and
from the expected high demand for construction materials for the reconstruction,
respectively.
Therefore, it is essential for the industrial sector assessment team to obtain or

derive a comprehensive calendar of how and when the above mentioned limiting
factors would be overcome, giving due consideration to the availability of and
difficulties to obtain adequate financing.
the assessment. If for some reason, the equipment and machinery that was destroyed can only
be substituted by more modern and capable machinery, the additional costs involved should be
taken into consideration during the estimation of needs.
31
This is a typical case for the food processing industry, but also applicable for other agro-
industry enterprises that may face future shortages of raw materials due to future losses in
primary agriculture, livestock and fishery production.
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The losses to be estimated should include both possible production decline and
operational cost increases. Production decline losses are to be estimated on the
basis of the expected time frames required to achieve normal or pre-disaster
levels of production, after overcoming the possible problems described above.
Increased operational costs may arise from the following possible reasons:
 Payment of overtime to staff to attend and solve most urgent problems

immediately after the disaster occurs;
 Rental of alternative premises while the destroyed or damaged ones are being
rebuilt or repaired;
 Temporary acquisition of electricity and water for the production process from
alternative sources, such as renting or acquiring portable power generators or
resorting to use bottled water rather than tap water; and
 Temporary acquisition of raw materials from alternative sources that may be
more costly and/or located in far away locations including other countries.
The estimated figures of damage and losses should be broken down according to
ownership by public and private sector. In this regard, it should be recalled that
some industrial enterprises might be public sector owned, private sector owned,
as well as some cases that may be owned jointly.

mppaacctt A
Annaallyysseess
The industrial or manufacturing sector assessment team must make additional

estimations in this sector that may have an impact at both the macro-economic
and personal or household levels, and deliver them to the appropriate
assessment team members handling impact analysis.
For the macro-economic impact analysis, the following figures must be estimated
and delivered to the macro-economist in the assessment team:
 The estimated value and calendar of industrial production losses,

expressed in current value, to be used for the analysis of disaster impact
on gross domestic product and growth;
 The estimated component of the industry sector reconstruction costs
(%) terms of reconstruction needs once they have been assessed, to be
 Estimated values of tax revenues that will not be accrued by the
government due to the decline in industrial production, to be used for
fiscal sector impact analysis; and
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 Values of decline in production and higher production costs arising from

the disaster in the case of government-owned industrial enterprises, to be
used in the analysis of the fiscal sector.
For the analysis of personal or household impact, estimates of industrial

production and of related employment impact are to be delivered to the
person(s) in charge of the subject.
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78
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3. COMMERCE SECTOR
aa)) G
Geenneerraall C
The commerce or trade sector is affected by disasters of every kind, through

destruction of its physical assets and losses of sales or other changes in the flows
of the sector´s economy as well.
As is customary, damage in commerce establishments is measured initially in

physical terms and subsequently converted into monetary terms by using the
repair, reconstruction or replacement cost of the destroyed physical assets, to the
same quality and quantity standards they had prior to the disaster.32
Losses in the commerce or trade sector refer to decline in sales of goods and to
increases in operational costs that may arise after – and as a consequence of – the
disaster. During the post-disaster reconstruction stage, however, demand for
sales of construction materials and equipment may increase and compensate –
and sometimes exceed – the losses due to the disaster. However, these are to be
estimated and considered afterwards, and the initial estimation of losses should
not consider such indirect impact of the reconstruction.
The assessment of damage and losses for this sector is more complex than in
other sectors in view of the usually large number of existing commercial shops,
of different types and size, which may exist in the affected areas. Therefore, a
special sample survey of affected commercial establishments is to be carried out33
in parallel to the assessment and its results combined with the existing baseline
information in order to cover the entire universe of the sector.
For the estimation of damage in this sector, civil engineers are required to be part
of the assessment team, while economists are required for the estimation of the
losses.
32
The possibility of repair, reconstruction or replacement using improved, disaster resilient
standards, as part of a possible strategy of “building back better”, would be considered at the time
of estimating needs for recovery and reconstruction. Multi-year inflation should be added into the
estimation of needs whenever the recovery and reconstruction activities are to last for more than
one calendar year.
33
In fact, a joint sample survey is usually conducted for the industry and commerce sectors, since
many of the required information are quite similar for both cases.
79
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bb)) B
maattiioonn
The following baseline information on the characteristics and capacity of the

trade or commerce sector must be obtained to provide the quantitative basis
required for the assessment:
 Number and size of commercial establishments, by type of commerce, existing in

the affected area;
 Typical physical facilities in each of the above, including a description of the
usual furniture, equipment and storage of goods to sell;
 Information on annual or monthly gross sales for each commercial
establishment; and
 Quantitative information on usual destination of sales, whether it is for domestic
consumption or for export to other countries.
This type of information is normally available in the most recent commerce

survey or census that the country may have undertaken, which may have been
conducted either by the Ministry of Trade or Commerce and/or by the Statistical
Office in the affected country. Further information may be obtained from the
national accounts handled by the national Statistical Office. Since this
information may already be out of date at the time of the assessment, projections
to the current year must be made based on the recent growth rates for the sector.
Additional information may be obtained through contacts with private sector
Chambers of Commerce, which would normally have detailed information on
the capacities and sales of their associates In fact, such private sector bodies
should become partners in conducting the assessment, since they are likely very
keen in defining post-disaster needs for rehabilitation, recovery and
reconstruction.
On the basis of the previously listed information, a typology of commercial

shops, under private or public ownership, is to be defined for purposes of the
assessment.
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A field visit to determine the effects of the disaster in the affected trade or
commerce shops must be carried out, in combination with a sample survey of
typical commercial establishments, in order to be able to assess the value of
damage and to estimate losses.
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Any existing reports – however partial in coverage – must be used in conjunction

with the field visit and the sample survey mentioned above, to estimate the
number of commerce establishments of each pre-defined type that may have
sustained total or partial destruction and whose sales may be affected directly or
indirectly by the disaster.
The field visits by the assessment team, coupled with the sample survey
questionnaire responses34, should enable to define the average type and value of
damage for each commerce establishment type, the time of sales stoppage or
decline due to different reasons35, and the likely requirements for recovery and
reconstruction. During the same field visit, unit reconstruction and replacement
costs for repair and rebuilding of physical assets as well as replacement of
equipment and stock of goods are to be obtained, through interviews with
traders. Any difficulties and limitations foreseen by the owners of such
establishments – for instance, in terms of financial and credit requirements,
availability of good to sell, availability of labor, etcetera – are to be identified.
On the basis of the information thus collected and in combination with the
baseline data on existing physical capacities and normal or non-disaster volume
of sales, it will be possible to develop a scenario of how the sector will likely
function after the disaster until full recovery and reconstruction is achieved. This
would include developing separate calendars for the repair and reconstruction of
buildings and other facilities, replacement of equipment and goods to sell and for
the resumption of normal or non-disaster sales levels over time.
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rebuild or repair the buildings and other associated facilities that were totally or
partially destroyed, as well as the replacement value of the furniture, equipment
and stocks of goods to sell that were also destroyed, assuming that they are being
replaced with the same capacity and quality they had prior to the disaster.36
34
A copy of the questionnaire developed for this type of sample survey of industrial and trade
shops is enclosed as Annex to these Guidance Notes. It requires only minor adaptation in order
to capture information on the different types of commerce types existing in the affected country,
which are to be obtained from the system of national accounts.
35
Sales stoppage or decline may be due to several possible reasons, such as: destruction of
premises, equipment and machinery; temporary unavailability of inputs such as electricity and
water; temporary unavailability of sufficient labor and of goods to sell.
36
the assessment. If for some reason, the equipment and machinery that was destroyed can only
be substituted by more modern and capable machinery, the additional costs involved should be
taken into consideration during the estimation of needs.
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Since it is likely that in the affected area there will exist a very large number, size
and type of commerce establishments, the damage assessment must rely on
information obtained from the already-mentioned, parallel sample survey to
define average values of damage for each type of commerce, and on counts of the
number of each commerce type that were either totally or partially destroyed.
Then, an extrapolation of the value of damage to cover the entire universe of
trade establishments in the affected area or country must be made based on an
assumed ratio of destructed versus total number of shops, using perhaps the
same ratio that may have been derived from the housing sector. The accuracy of
this extrapolation of course is of paramount importance, and the assessment
team should devote sufficient time in order to discuss and agree on such ratio, so
that results are reliable.
The estimation of the losses must be made based on several considerations, of

which the time frame for their occurrence is paramount. Losses will normally
occur over the time period required to achieve full reconstruction of premises,
replacement of destroyed furniture and equipment, and to obtain full availability
and flow of raw goods to sell. Losses are likely to occur due to:
 Damage to sector assets, in terms of destruction of buildings, furniture and stock

of goods to sell;
 Temporary stoppage of sales due to lack of electricity or water;
 Temporary disruption of goods availability and inflow;
 Temporary unavailability or shortages of labor;
 Future unavailability of goods to sell that may be due to future losses expected in
agriculture, livestock and fishery production;37
 Insufficiency or non-existence of working capital at the commercial enterprise;
and
 Possible changes (decline or increase) in demand of the goods, that may arise
from possible generalized income decline of the population and from anticipated
or foreseen high demand for construction materials for the reconstruction,
respectively.
Therefore, it is essential for the commerce sector assessment team to obtain or

derive a comprehensive calendar of how and when the above mentioned limiting
factors would be overcome, giving due consideration to the availability of and
difficulties to obtain adequate financing.
The losses to be estimated should include both possible sales decline and
operational cost increases. Sales decline losses are to be estimated on the basis of
37
This refers to the case of food products obtained from the food processing industry, but also
applicable for goods from other agro-industry enterprises that may face future shortages of raw
materials due to future losses in primary agriculture, livestock and fishery production.
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the expected time frames required to achieve normal or pre-disaster levels of

sales, after overcoming the possible problems described above. Increased
operational costs may arise from the following possible reasons:
 Payment of overtime to staff to attend and solve most urgent problems

immediately after the disaster occurs;
 Rental of alternative premises while the destroyed or damaged ones are being
rebuilt or repaired;
 Temporary acquisition of electricity and water from alternative sources, such as
renting or acquiring portable power generators; and
 Temporary acquisition of goods to sell from alternative sources that may be more
costly and/or located in far away locations including other countries.
The estimated figures of damage and losses should be broken down according to
ownership by private and public sector. In this regard, it should be recalled that
some trade enterprises might be public sector owned, private sector owned, as
well as some cases that may be owned jointly.

mppaacctt A
Annaallyysseess
The trade or commerce sector assessment team must make additional estimations
in this sector that may have an impact at both the macro-economic and personal
or household levels, and deliver them to the appropriate assessment team
members handling impact analysis.
For the macro-economic impact analysis, the following figures must be estimated
and delivered to the macro-economist in the assessment team:
 The estimated value and calendar of losses in sales, expressed in current

value, to be used for the analysis of disaster impact on gross domestic
product and growth;
 The estimated component of the commerce sector reconstruction costs
(%) terms of reconstruction needs once they have been assessed, to be
 Estimated values of tax revenues (sales taxes or value added taxes,
depending on the country´s tax structure) that will not be accrued by the
government due to the decline in commerce sales, to be used for fiscal
sector impact analysis; and
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 Values of decline in sales and higher production costs arising from the
disaster in the case of government-owned commerce enterprises, to be
used in the analysis of the fiscal sector.
For the analysis of personal or household impact, estimates of commerce sales

losses and of related employment impact are to be delivered to the person(s) in
charge of the subject.
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The tourism sector is highly vulnerable to the effects and impacts of disasters of
every kind. This is due to three main reasons: first, the location of its assets in
vulnerable coastal areas; second, to the volatility of tourism demands due to fear
or misinformation about the possible consequences of disasters; and, third, in
view of the seasonality of the high-demand tourism season, it often occurs that
after disasters, one may lose the income from the entire tourism season.
Bed capacity in hotels is a measure of the availability of assets in the sectors to

operate and admit tourists, whether foreign or domestic. After disasters, bed
capacity decreases due to the destruction – whether full or partial – of the hotels
and other facilities. The arrival of tourists, especially those from abroad, is
contingent on the perception of individuals as to what may have happened in the
affected area or country after the disaster38. Misinformation therefore may play a
negative role in the recovery of demand for tourism services. Therefore, the time
required for the tourism demand to fully recover after the disaster, may be
longer than the time required to rebuild the affected bed capacity.
The negative impact of disasters on tourism is reflected in the amount of foreign

exchange earnings for the country, in the possible decline in domestic
employment, and in a possible decline in government revenue earnings, since
many countries have special taxes on tourism income. Countries where the
tourism sector represents a significant fraction of their gross domestic product
would logically be more vulnerable than others where tourism activities are
limited.
Damage in the case of this sector is estimated initially in physical terms and is
subsequently converted into monetary value by using the unit repair,
reconstruction or replacement costs of the affected sector assets, to the same
quality and quantity standards they had prior to the disaster.39
38
One such situation was that of Mexico after the recent swine flu pandemic started. Foreign
tourists, who have a significant impact on the country’s economy, stopped their arrival to Mexico’s
tourism sites upon learning the appearance of the flu, without regard to the fact that the flu is
relatively mild and that in some tourist areas such as Cancun no deaths occurred due to the flu.
In total, losses from foreign tourism income alone in 2009 amount to US$ 2,300 million.
39
As for any other sector, the possible repair, reconstruction or replacement of tourism assets
using improved, disaster-resilient standards, as part of a “building back better” reconstruction
strategy, are to be considered later on, at the time of the estimation of needs for recovery and
85
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Losses in this sector refer to, on one hand, to decline in revenues that arise due to
the temporary non-availability of destroyed assets as well as to the decline in the
arrival of tourists; on the other hand, to higher costs of operation of the tourism
facilities – such as provision of water and electricity from alternative sources – as
well as the unexpected costs of promotion to convince the tourists coming back
after the disaster. The estimation of some of these losses have a double impact in
that they may not only decrease gross domestic production but negatively affect
the balance of payments of the country, since a significant foreign exchange flow
may have been interrupted due to the disaster, as will be discussed later on.
In this sector again, a detailed assessment of all tourism facilities must be made,
on a one-by-one basis, since the assets are usually very distinct from each other,
and the approach of developing typical types of assets used in the housing sector
cannot be adopted. This will then involve visits to all affected areas and tourism
resorts and facilities, for which assistance may be obtained from the existing
hotel associations in the country.
The assessment team requires the inclusion of architects and civil engineers for
the estimation of the value of damage and the availability of an economist for the
estimation of the losses.
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maattiioonn
The following is a minimum of the quantitative baseline information required for

the assessment of damage and losses for the tourism sector:
 The number, size and location of all tourism assets that exist in the
affected areas;
 Description and quantities of the typical furniture, equipment and
other goods that are normally available in the affected assets;
 Statistical data on the arrival and seasonal variation of tourist
arrivals, both domestic and foreign since they are likely to behave
differently;
 Information on the average length of stay of tourists in the country
or area, and on their average expenditures, for both domestic and
foreign tourists; and
 Data on any fees or special taxes charged to foreign nationals,
including visa fees, special tourism taxes, etcetera.
reconstruction. At that time, multi-year inflation is to be added as well whenever the

reconstruction program takes longer than one calendar year.
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The place to search and obtain most of the baseline information required is
clearly the country’s Statistical Office, since they normally keep data on the
number and origin of tourist arrivals, as well as the seasonal variation, and also
have data on the average length of stay by tourists and their estimated average
expenditures. Many countries, where tourism is an important sector, have annual
surveys of the sector. Furthermore, the private sector association of tourist
operators or entrepreneurs in the affected country is likely to have detailed
information for the baseline and also be willing to cooperate in the assessment.
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maannccee
A detailed field visit to obtain first-hand knowledge about the effects of the
disaster on the sector’s infrastructure and facilities is essential for the assessment
of the value of damage and to obtain information to estimate losses. During the
visit, special interviews should be held with hotel owners and tourism operators
to obtain their views and determine their special needs for recovery and
reconstruction, and to ascertain whether insurance is available and whether it
covers both infrastructure or revenue losses.
Al existing reports – no matter how partial in coverage – must be gathered and

used to guide or orient the field visit in order to ensure that all affected assets of
the sector are visited and assessed. It is very likely that hotel owners may have
commissioned assessments by private assessors and/or that the insurance
companies that cover the assets may have done their own estimations. The
assessment team should make every effort to obtain access to such prior
estimations.
The assessment team for the sector should also visit private construction
contractors operating in the affected area to obtain information on typical unit
construction and repair costs that will be used in the estimation of damage, as
well as learned opinions on the required length of the repair/reconstruction
times.
During the field visit, the assessment team should also obtain directly from hotel
owners and tourism operators data on actual occupancy of bed capacity since the
disaster occurred that can be used to compare to the “normal” or “non disaster”
trends and conditions.40
40
Care must be exercised in this to avoid optimistic estimates that may be based on the
occupancy of hotels by the usually large humanitarian assistance crews whose stay is not long
term, and which may distort the estimates about real decline in foreign tourist arrivals.
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Using this field information and in combination with the baseline data collected
before, the assessment team must come up with a scenario of how the sector’s
bed capacity will be restored over the time of reconstruction. Projections about
tourist arrival recovery should also be carried out, dealing separately with
domestic and foreign tourists, bearing in mind that reconstruction of bed
capacity and demand for tourism services do not necessarily match. In view of
the uncertainty of how foreign tourists arrivals may recover, use can be made of
data on recovery from past disasters, and campaigns to adequately inform
potential clients abroad may be factored in for this purpose.
The above described estimations and projections should enable the preparation
of a calendar of sector recovery over time, which can then be used for the
subsequent estimation of losses.
d) Estimation of Damage and Losses
The value of damage must be estimated as the cost to rebuild or repair each and
all the buildings and associated facilities that were (totally or partially)
destroyed, as well as the replacement value of the furniture, equipment and
other goods that were contained in the buildings and were destroyed, assuming
they are replaced or rebuilt to the same standards of quality and quantity they
had prior to the disaster.41 Needless to say, these costs are to be based on the
actual unit costs of construction and repair obtained by the assessment team after
visiting reputable building contractors, and/or after revising the insurer’s
estimations.
As part of the damage assessment, a very clear definition of the time frame
required for reconstruction and restoration of nominal bed capacity is to be
made, which will be an essential input for the estimation of losses.
In order to avoid double accounting in the assessment, the team must make sure
that damage to environmental assets and services that make tourism attractive to
the users is properly included in the assessment of the environment sector. In
addition, damage to roads leading to and within the premises of the hotels and
damage to the services of water and sanitation, electricity and communications,
is only included within the tourism sector in those cases where the roads and
services are owned and operated by the hotels. Otherwise, they should be
41
Any desired improvement in quality and quantity is to be left for consideration in the
subsequent estimation of post-disaster needs, if the adopted reconstruction strategy is that of
“building back better”.
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included in the sectors of transport, communications, water supply and

sanitation, and electricity, respectively.
For the estimation of losses, the assessment team may assume initially that losses
would occur over the time required to reconstruct bed capacity; and then should
carefully introduce the most likely recovery pattern of foreign tourist trust that
will enable full recovery of demand. Putting it differently, losses are to be
estimated over the period of time defined by:
 The time required to repair or rebuild the physical or

environmental assets that were subject to damage; and/or
 The time required for overcoming the fear or lack of information by
tourists abroad.
The assessment team should be aware of the possibility of tourist arrivals from
abroad to decline for an entire tourism season, in view of the time required to
rebuild assets and the need to design and undertake information and promotion
campaigns abroad. The timing of the disaster along the calendar year and the
previous experience from past disasters should provide insights on this time
frame. The demand of domestic tourists is likely to follow a different and more
positive trend and timeframe.
Summarizing, the assessment team must recall that it must develop the post-
disaster schedule of sector performance which combines a calendar of staged
recovery of bed capacity (the supply side of the sector) with the schedule of
possible recovery of domestic and foreign tourist arrivals, which covers the
demand side. In turns, recovery of bed capacity depends on the construction
sector capacity of the country (since after a large disaster large numbers of
housing units, schools, hospitals, roads and other infrastructure works would
have to be rebuilt or repaired concurrently), the timing for availability of
financing for reconstruction, and the existence and efficiency of bureaucratic
requirements for reconstruction permits and licenses. Furthermore, that the
recovery of demand will depend on the opportunity and efficiency of
information campaigns to regain trust of the usual target groups and/or to
capture new target groups.
In addition to losses in revenue, the sector may also sustain higher costs of
operation that must also be included in the assessment, as they would affect
enterprise performance. This may include, among others, overtime payment to
personnel, paying higher costs to obtain water (for instance bringing in tanker
trucks) and electricity (renting portable power units) while the regular services
are being repaired by the appropriate utilities, and many other possibilities that
are impossible to list.
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mppaacctt A
Annaallyysseess
The tourism sector assessment team must also make additional estimates of
effects that go beyond damage and losses, and that would have a bearing at the
macro-economic and personal or family levels, and deliver them to the
appropriate assessment team members dealing with impact analysis.
For the case of the macro-economic impact analysis, the following items must be
estimated and provided to the macro-economist expert of the assessment team:
 The estimated value and timeframe of the losses in revenues,

expressed in current values, for use in the analysis of disaster
impact on gross domestic product;
 The estimated corresponding values and time frame of foreign
exchange losses due to the temporary non-arrival of foreign
tourists, for use in balance of payment analysis;
 The estimated value and timeframe of the information and
promotion campaigns to regain foreign tourists trust, also for use in
balance of payments analysis;
 The estimated value of temporary decline in government revenues
corresponding to the decline in foreign tourism arrivals, including
tourism and sales taxes, tourist visas and permits, etcetera, for the
analysis of fiscal impact; and
 The cost of the expected share of the government in the financing of
the information and promotion campaign, for the fiscal sector
analysis.
For the analysis of personal or household income decline, the tourism sector
assessment team must deliver the data and timeframe on losses of tourism
revenue are to be delivered to the expert dealing with the subject.
90

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GUIDANCE NOTES ON POST-DISASTER DAMAGE AND LOSS ASSESSMENT

Damage: total or partial destruction of physical assets existing in the

and is measured in physical units (i.e. square meters of housing, kilometers

In regard to the impact on the macro-economic variables, analyses are usually

revenues caused by a decline in economic activity after the disaster, as well as

In regard to the impact on personal or household well-being, the analysis

A damage and loss assessment following disasters can be used advantageously

The assessment of damage and losses – in addition to revealing the amount of

A subsequent use of the results of the assessment is to estimate the requirements

Source: Bappenas and World Bank Report, 2005.

Typical objectives of an overall economic recovery program include the

The description of the procedure to estimate needs for recovery and

The damage and loss assessment methodology is based on a sector-by-sector and

A brief description of a generic, step-by-step procedure for the assessment of

1. Define a pre-disaster baseline

 A baseline on physical assets, and

The second step to be undertaken in the damage and loss assessment is to

To develop the preliminary calendar of reconstruction, and based on the field

 Define a typology of physical assets (by size, capacity, construction

area) and to the expected availability of adequate financial

To develop the preliminary forecast of economic activity performance after the

Damage is initially measured in physical terms and then is converted to

 The characteristics (geographical or spatial location, and installed

 Financial information on the enterprises that provide services in the

The replacement value of destroyed assets must be ascertained using present

In order to ascertain losses, it is essential that an objective calendar of repair and

Based on the above, a preliminary calendar or schedule of capacity recovery

Losses are then to be estimated by comparing the pre-disaster to the post-disaster

 Higher operational costs (due to use of alternative sources or means

Losses should be estimated on a calendar-year basis, including those of the year

During the assessment, it must be remembered that losses arising in water-user

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As part of the assessment, estimates are to be made of the impact or

In the damage assessment, estimates are to be included to ascertain the value of

The impact of losses on the government budget is to be estimated in terms of

The above information is to be supplied to the specialist undertaking the overall,

To estimate the impact in well-being of the affected population, once the

the possible higher expenditures are to be estimated, and provided to the

In this sector, again, damage is initially measured in physical quantities or units,

per type of power plant and rates charged to different user

Damage must be estimated for each of the electrical system components,

To estimate losses, an objective calendar or schedule of repair and reconstruction

 Lower operational revenues arising from lower sales to electricity-

ee)) IInnppuuttss ffoorr M

The impact of losses on the balance of payment when exports of electricity to

The above information is to be supplied to the specialist in charge of the overall

As in other sectors of the economy, damage is measured in physical quantities or

The following sub-sectors are to be addressed separately when undertaking an

 Location and capacities of each of the transport sub-systems as

This type of information is normally available from the ministries of public

Another consideration to be kept in mind during an assessment is that not all

Damage in this sector can be estimated as the value of investment and

In the case of rehabilitation, repair works are undertaken in affected sections of

In order to reduce vulnerability in both rehabilitation and reconstruction works,

Type of work Range in Cost

As an aid to the specialist involved in the assessment of disaster damage, Table

The number of destroyed vehicles is usually estimated during the emergency

In regard to the time of rehabilitation and reconstruction, the usually accepted

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The damage assessment should include the necessary breakdowns so that

In addition, whenever insurance of assets are involved, the conditions of said

The above information is to be supplied to the specialist in charge of the overall

This information is usually available in the most recent population or housing