SCHOOL OF ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONICS ENGINEERING

POWER SYSTEM PLANNING AND RELIABILITY

MATERIAL FOR IA-II

1. Develop mathematical objective function of power system expansion planning.]

A mathematical optimization technique formulates the problem in a mathematical

representation; as given by (2.2) through (2.4). Provided the objective function and/or the
constraints are nonlinear, the resulting problem is designated as Non Linear optimization
Problem (NLP). A special case of NLP is quadratic programming in which the objective
function is a quadratic function of x. If both the objective functions and the constraints
are linear functions of x, the problem is designated as a Linear Programming (LP)
problem. Other categories may also be identified based on the nature of the variables. For
instance, if x is of integer type, the problem is denoted by Integer Programming (IP).
Mixed types such as MILP(Mixed Integer Linear Programming) may also exist in which
while the variables may be both real and integer, the problem is also of LP type. For
mathematical based formulations, some algorithms have, so far, been developed; based
on them some commercial software have also been generated. In the following
subsections, we briefly review these algorithms. We should, however, note that generally
speaking, a mathematical algorithm may suffer from numerical problems and may be
quite complex in implementation. However, its convergence may be guaranteed but
finding the global optimum solution may only be guaranteed for some types such as LP.

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There is no definite and fixed classification of mathematical algorithms. Here, we are not
going to discuss them in details. Instead, we are going to introduce some topics which are
of more interest in this book and may be applicable to power system planning issues.1
Some topics, such as game theory, which are of more interest for other power system
issues (such as market analysis of power ystems), are not addressed here.

2. What are the constraints observed during optimization process of power system
expansion planning?

The constraints to be observed during the optimization process are as follows:

 Generation capacity: the capacity sum of newly installed and existing generating
units are more than or equal to the load demand plus reserve in each year within
planning period.

 Reliability: the reliability index LOLP is used to evaluate adequacy of generating
units.

LOLP index of critical period in year t and

 The presence of hydro power plants: this constraint expresses the maximum
energy obtained from a hydro power plant in the different periods of the planning
horizon at different climatic conditions.

 Fuel constraint: maximum fuel supply of different fuel types of thermal plants.

 Emission constraint: maximum production rate of pollution.

3. Explain least cost optimization problem..

Energy consumption is rapidly increased in development countries, which effects global
climate change and global and regional energy management. Among the various kinds of
energy carriers, electricity has a special role in helping to attain social and economic

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development. The problem of power system planning may be classified as generation

expansion planning (GEP), transmission expansion planning (TEP), and distribution
expansion planning (DEP). This decomposition is normally performed to make the very
highly complex combined problem possible. Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) is
considered one of major parts of power system planning issues. The aim of GEP is to
seek the most economical generation expansion scheme achieving an acceptable
reliability level according to the forecast of demand increase in a certain period of time.
The feasibility of the generation structure, the cost of primary energy resources and fuel
for the scheme, and the reliability indices of electricity supply, make generation planning
a very complicated optimization mathematically. Some of these restrictions have been
applied in GEP in the recent literature WASP-IV is powerful software developed by
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in which a dynamic programming approach
is employed to find an overall optimal required generation capacity for the network so
that an index, such as LOLP, is minimized.

4. Explain in brief two optimization techniques

5. Explain the optimization techniques for solution by programming.
i) Linear programming method. ii) Nonlinear programming method.
iii) Dynamic programming method.

Optimization Techniques:
In everyday life, all of us are confronted with some decision makings. Normally, we try to decide
or the best. If someone is to buy a commodity, he or she tries to buy the best quality, yet with the
east cost. These types of decision makings are categorized as optimization problems in which the
aim is to find the optimum solutions; where the optimum may be either the least or the most.

Most of the operational and planning problems consist of the following three major steps
• Definition
• Modeling
• Solution algorithm

Decision variables are the independent variables; the decision maker has to determine their
optimum values and based on those, other variables (dependent) can be determined. For instance,

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in an optimum generation scheduling problem, the active power generations of power plants may
be the decision variables. The dependent variables can be the total fuel consumption, system
losses, etc. which can be calculated upon determining the decision variables. In a capacitor
allocation problem, the locations and the sizing of the capacitor banks are the decision variables,
whereas the dependent variables may be bus voltages, system losses, etc. Mathematical
Algorithms.

Linear Programming (LP) Method:

As already noted, LP is an optimization method in which both the objective function and the
constraints are linear functions of the decision variables.
• Using the simplex method normally requires a large amount of computer storage and time. The
so called revised simplex method is a revised method in which less computational time and
storage space are required. Still another topic of interest in LP problems is the duality theory. In
fact, associated with every LP problem, a so called dual problem may be formulated. In many
cases, the solution of an LP problem may be more easily obtained from the dual problem. If the
LP problem has a special structure, a so called decomposition principle may be employed to
solve the problem in which less computer storage is required.

Non Linear Programming (NLP) Method:

We noted earlier that if the objective function and/or the constraints are nonlinear functions of
the decision variables, the resulting optimization problem is called NLP. Before proceeding
further on NLP problems, we should note that most practical problems are of constrained type in
which some constraint functions should be satisfied. As for constrained problems, however,
some algorithms work on the principle of transforming the problem into a unconstrained case,
we initially review some existing algorithms on solving unconstrained problems. The solution
methods for unconstrained problems may be generally classified as direct search (or non-
gradient) methods and descent (or gradient) methods. The former methods do not use the partial
derivatives of the objective function and are suitable for simple problems involving a relatively
small number of variables.

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The latter methods require the evaluations of the first and possibly, the higher order derivatives
of the objective function. As a result, these methods are generally more efficient than the direct
methods. All the unconstrained optimization methods are iterative in nature and start from an
initial trial solution; moving stepwise in a sequential manner towards the optimum solution. The
gradient methods have received more attention in power system literature. For instance, in the so
called steepest descent method; widely used in power system literature, the gradient vector is
used to calculate the optimum step length along the search direction so that the algorithm
efficiency is maximized.

Let us come back to the constrained case. Two types of methods, namely, direct and indirect
methods apply. In the former methods, the constraints are handled in an explicit manner, while in
most of the latter methods; the constrained problem is converted into a sequence of
unconstrained problems and solved through available algorithms. As an example of the direct
methods, in the so called constraint approximation method, the objective function and the
constraints are linearized about some point. The resulting approximated LP problem is solved
using LP techniques. The resulting solution is then used to construct a new LP problem. The
process is continued until a convergence criterion is satisfied. As an example of the indirect
methods, the so called penalty function method, works on the principle of converting the
problem into an unconstrained type. It is, in turn, classified as interior and exterior penalty
function methods. In the former, the sequence of unconstrained minima lie in the feasible region
while in the latter, they lie in the infeasible region. In both, they move towards the desired.

Dynamic Programming (DP) Method:

Dynamic Programming is a widely used technique in power system studies. It is, in fact, a
mathematical technique used for multistage decision problems; originally developed in 1950s. A
multistage decision problem is a problem in which optimal decisions have to be made over some
stages. The stages may be different times, different spaces, different levels, etc. The important
point is that the output of each stage is the input to the next serial stage. The overall objective
function is to be optimized over all stages. It is normally a function of the decision variables (xi)
of all stages. The important fact is that one cannot start from optimizing the first stage; moving
forward toward the final stage; as there may be some correlations between the stages, too.

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The Stochastic Nature of Voltage Dips, Frequency and

Duration of long, short interruptions
The voltage dips are caused by faults. Here it is worth to note the
difference between failure and fault.

Failure is the termination of the ability of an item to perform its required

function while faults are short circuits caused by dielectric breakdown of
the insulation system.

A failure does not need to be fault, but a fault usually leads to a failure.

Faults can be categorised as self-clearing, temporary and permanent. A

self-clearing fault extinguishes itself without any external intervention.
A temporary fault is a short circuit that will clear after the faulted
component (typically an overhead line) is de-energized and reenergized.
A permanent fault is a short circuit that will persist until repaired by
human intervention.
Faults can be observed at the customer’s premises as long interruptions,
short interruptions, dips and swells.

Outages occur when permanent faults take place in the direct path
feeding the customer.

Short interruptions are the result of temporary faults cleared by the

successful operation of a breaker or recloser.

Dips and swells occur during faults on the system that are not in the
direct path supplying the load.

Faults are of a stochastic nature and so are the dips caused by these
faults.
Several random factors are involved in the analysis of voltage dips.
An extensive list is

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• Fault type. Three phase faults are more severe than single-phase
faults, but the later are much more frequent.

• Fault location. Faults originated in transmission systems cause dips

that can be seen tens of kilometres away, while faults at radial
distribution systems have a more local effect.
• Fault impedance. Solid faults cause more severe dips than impedance
faults.
• Fault clearing time.
• Reclosing time. It is common practice to set one or two reclosing
attempts in radial distribution feeder protections. This practice is
known as fuse saving and has an important impact on frequency of
dips originated at distribution levels.

• Fault duration. Self-cleared faults cause dips which duration depends

on the fault itself, not on the protection setting.

• Power system modifications. The impedance between the point of

observation and the fault point affects the magnitude of a fault
caused dip. However the system is not static and changes that affect
this impedance are continuous. A new line can be built, a transformer
can be taken out of the system or a new power station can be put into
operation.
• Severe weather. The occurrence of faults and hence of dips is bigger
during severe weather, which can take many
forms as wind, rain, ice, snow, lightning, etc.

The list of random factors is not complete but is enough to illustrate the
stochastic nature of voltage dips, Frequency and Duration of Long &
Short Interruption.

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INTER-CONNECTED SYSTEM
Power system is an interconnected system in which various electrical components such as
generators, transformers, transmission lines, distributors, loads etc are connected in the form of a
network.

ADVANTAGES OF INTERCONNECTED POWER SYSTEM

*Reduced plant reserved capacity: Every power station is required to have a standby unit for
emergencies. By interconnecting the large generating stations the amount of reserve plant
capacity in the system, as a whole is reduced, the load factor and efficiency of operation are
improved.

*Increased effective capacity of power system: The load curves of different interconnected
stations are likely to differ the result is that the maximum demand on the system is much reduced
as compared to the sum of individual maximum demands on various power stations. In other
words, the diversity factor of the whole system is improved, thereby increasing the effective
capacity of the whole system.

*Economical operation: Interconnection between hydroelectric power station and thermal power
station makes their operation economical.

*Use of older plants: The interconnected system makes it possible to employ the older and less
efficient plants to carry peak loads of short durations.

*Exchange of peak loads: The main advantage of this system is that the peak load of the power
stations can be exchanged.

*Reduced capital costs

*Savings in operations costs

DIS ADVANTAGES OF INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM

*The major disadvantages of interconnected power system is that fault level of the system
increases as more and more power sources are connected . In case of any fault at any point ,
heavy fault current will flow which are fed from the sources , causing heavy voltage dip in the
system . Thus the ratings of the electrical equipment, cables etc have to be upgraded as per the
increased fault level, which is huge cost. Long length transmission lines and tie lines are required
which results increased cost of transmission. Since it is a large system , the analysis of the system
will be very complicated.

*Stability problem

* Difficult in maintaining system frequency

*Cascaded failures

*Power fluctuations, etc.

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Power System Reliability:

• A measure of the ability of a system, generally given as numerical indices, to
deliver power to all points of utilization within acceptable standards and in
amounts desired. Power system reliability (comprising generation and
transmission & distribution facilities) can be described by two basic
functional attributes: adequacy and security.

• Reliability is the probability of a device or a system performing its function

adequately, for the period of time intended, under the operating conditions
intended.

• Adequacy relates to the existence of sufficient facilities within the

system to satisfy the consumer load demand at all times.

• Security relates to the ability to withstand sudden disturbances

• Adequacy:

A measure of the ability of the power system to supply the aggregate electric
power and energy requirements of the customers within components ratings and
voltage limits, taking into account planned and unplanned outages of system
components. Adequacy measures the capability of the power system to supply the
load in all the steady states in which the power system may exist considering
standards conditions.

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Analysis of reliability….hierarchial levels

1. Generation only (Level 1)

2. Generation + Transmission (Level 2)

3. Generation + Transmission+ Distribution (Level 3)

Analysis involving level 3 are not generally done due to enormity of the problem.

Most of the probabilistic techniques for reliability assessment are with respect to
adequacy assessment.

Reliability of a system
• A system composed of large number of components connected in series and
parallel.

• Each component would have its own reliability.

• Reliability of the system would depend on the reliability of individual

component.

– A chain’s strength would be governed by the weakest link.

Reliability Indices (1)

• SAIFI =System Average Interruption Frequency Index (int/yr. cust)= Total
number of customer interruptions / Total number of customers served

• SAIDI = System Average Interruption Duration Index (h/yr. cust) =

Customer interruption durations / Total number of customers served

• CAIFI = Customer Average Interruption Frequency Index (int./yr. cust) =

Total number of customer interruptions / Total number of customers
interrupted

• CAIDI = Customer Average Interruption Duration Index (h/y. cust.) =

Customer interruption durations/ Total number of customer interruptions =
SAIDI/SAIFI

• CTAIDI = Customer Total Average Interruption Duration Index (h/ y. cust)=

Customer interruption durations / Total number of customers interrupted

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Reliability Indices (2)
• ENS = Energy Not Supplied = (kwh/y.) = Total energy not supplied = UE =
Unserved Energy

• AENS = Average Energy Not Supplied = (kwh/y. Cust.) = Total energy not
supplied / Total number of customers served

• LOLP = Loss of Load Probability =The probability that the total production in
system cannot meet the load demand

Reliability Indices (3)

• Protection system

– Selectability: should operate for the conditions intended and should

not for which not intended.

– Dependability: Number of correct operation devided by number of

incorrect operations

• Other Equipments, high reliability would mean

– In repeated operations – probability that the out would be within a

narrow range.

– Low variance or standard deviation of output

• Loss of Load Probability (LOLP)

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Optimal value of reliability

Optimal value of reliability (2)

• The costs of the producer = CR

• The costs of the consumers = CIC

• CIC = Customer Interruption Costs (= VOLL = Value of Lost Load)

• At the optimum : ∆CR = - ∆ CIC (= -∆ VOLL)

• Security:
• A measure of power system ability to withstand sudden disturbances
such as electric short circuits or unanticipated losses of system components
or load conditions together with operating constraints. Another aspect of
security is system integrity, which is the ability to maintain interconnected
operation. Integrity relates to the preservation of interconnected system
operation, or avoidance of uncontrolled separation, in the presence of
specified severe disturbances.

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What do you understand by Power system reliability?

Power system reliability refer to the ability of a power system to provide adequate stable, reliable
power to a given distribution as the name clearly suggests 'Reliability' means the quality of being
'trust worthy'.

Electrical systems are not exception to their destination lesser of number of system outages of
the Power supply, more reliable the system ideally.

Electricity should be available to every customer all the time, no exception. But the scenario is
different in the real world.

So we tend to measure number of times the outage occurs which is inversely proportional to
reliability.

The basic function of an electric power system is to satisfy the system load requirements as
economically as possible and with a reasonable assurance of continuity and quantity.

In order to achieve the required degree of reliability, planners and operators have utilised a wide
range of criteria in their respective areas of activity.

RELIABLITY PLANNING:
Proper planning prevents the poor performance cutting out the roof to extract a critical motor with
the helicopter is not the definition of proper planning.

Significant through into maintenance considerations and the failure made and effects analysis
should be a part of new project planning and facility with proper maintenance and reliability
planning etc.

A better chance of maximising the throughout and availability, making them more competitive in
market place.

EVALUATION OF TECHNIQUES

1. MARKOV MODEL

2. RECURESIVE TECHNIQUE

MARKOV’S MODEL:

There are four common markov’s models used in different situations depending on whether
every sequential state is observable or not and whether the system is to be adjusted on the basis of
observations made:

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System state is fully observable system state is

observable
System is autonomous Markov chain hidden Markov
model
System is controlled Markov decision process partially observable
Markov decision

Markov analysis is a method used to forecast the value of a variable whose future value is
influenced only by its current position or state, not by any prior activity that led the variable to its
current position or state.

RECURSIVE MODEL:

An electric utility much concerns you to plan, design, operate and maintain its power supply to
provide an acceptable level of reliability to its user. Reliability index, loss of load probability
(LOLP) of any power system is evaluated using recursive algorithm and considering no derated
state of generators.

HYDRO THERMAL SCHEDULING

Modern Power system consists of a large number of thermal and hydel plants connected
at various load centre through a transmission network.

Our important objective is generate and transmit power to meet the load demand at
minimum cost by optimal mix of different types of plants.

Therefore the study of the optimal scheduling for power generation at different plants in a
power system is of high importance.

COMPARISON BETWEEN THERMAL AND HYDRO PAWER PLANTS

T hermal Power Plant

It is non-renewable source of energy

Initial cost is low

But operational cost is high

It produces air pollution

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Hydel Power Plant

It is renewable source of energy
Initial cost is high
But operational cost is low

It is a clean source of energy

SCHEDULING:

The operating cost of thermal plant is very high , though their initial cost is low.
On the other hand the operating cost is low in case of hydroelectric generation
Due the low operating cost in case of hydel plants so we can operate it in conjuction with
thermal plants which will lead to save fuel
So Hydrothermal scheduling is a power system optimization problem which gives us idea
how to manage the hydel and thermal plant combinely.

Hydrothermal scheduling is classified into two parts , that are

a)Long range Problem : This type of scheduling having the scheduling interval of a month
or a year.

b)Short range Problem : This type of scheduling having the scheduling interval of a day or
a week.

POWER SYSTEM OPTIMIZATION:

Generally optimization is a technique in which we try to maximize our profit or gain and to
minimize loss or expenditure under some pratical conditions known as constraints.

In load flow analysis we know that every bus associated with four operational variables
like P,Q,|V| and δ.Out of these four,two are specified variable and other two are not given.

According to these two specified variables we have three types bus that are PQ bus(Load
bus),PV bus(Generator Bus),Slack bus.

If the specified variables are varied within their constraints that cause an infinite number of
load flow solution.

Each value of load flow solution related to one set of specified variables.

The optimal choice is that values of specified variable for which gives best load flow
solution.

Optimal and economical system operation it predominantly depends on best or optimal

load flow solution.
Impact of weather in load forecasting
Weather causes variations in domestic load, public lighting, commercial
loads etc.
Main weather variables that affect the power consumption are:
• Temperature
• Cloud cover
• Visibility
• precipitation
First two factors affect the heating/cooling loads
Others affect lighting loads
Average temperature is the most significant weather dependent factor that
influences load variations.
Temperature and load are not linearly related.
Non-linearity is further complicated by the influence of
• Humidity
• Extended periods of extreme heat or cold spells
In load forecast models proper temperature ranges and representative average
temperatures which cover all regions of the area served by the electric utility should
be selected.
Cloud cover is measured in terms of:
• height of cloud cover
• Thickness
• Cloud amount
• Time of occurrence and duration before crossing over a population area.
Visibility measurements are made in terms of meters/kilometers with fog indication.
To determine impact of weather variables on load demand, it is essential to
analyze data concerning different weather variables through the cross-section of
area served by utility and calculate weighted averages for incorporation in the
modeling.

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