Midterm Examination I (Pink Version) - Answer Key

1. A newspaper in a large city investigating the claims of a pizza restaurant concerning

pizza delivery times, samples 64 telephone orders randomly during the evening hours
for a period of a month, measures the length of each delivery and computes the mean
x̄ and the standard deviation s from the sample data. Let X be the random variable
that represent the delivery time.
(a) (8) If the pizza restaurant asserts that the population mean µ = 45 minutes and
standard deviation σ = 8 minutes, what is the probability that the delivery
time for a randomly selected order would be between 41 and 49 minutes

X = delivery time of pizza (min.)

41 − 45 49 − 45
P (41 < X < 49) = P ( <Z< )=
8 8
P (−.5 < Z < .5) = 2 × P (0 < Z < .5) = 2 × .1915 = .383

(b) (7) Assuming the restaurants’s claim is true, describe the sampling distribution of
X̄, the mean delivery time of 64 orders, giving numerical values for its mean
µX̄ and standard deviation σX̄ .

X̄ has an approx. Normal distr. with mean

√ = µ√ X̄ and standard deviation
σX̄ = where µX̄ = µ = 45 and σX̄ = σ/ n = 8/ 64 = 1

(c) (10) Assuming the restaurants’s claim is true, what is the probability that the mean
delivery time X̄ of 64 orders would be less than 46 minutes ?
46−45
P (X̄ < 46) = P (Z < 1
) = P (Z < 1) = .5 + .3413 = .8413
2. A precision parts manufacturer produces bolts for use in military aircraft. Let µ and
σ denote the mean and standard deviation for the length of the bolts produced by this
process, respectively.
(a) (10) The sample mean x̄ and standard deviation s for a random sample of 80 bolts
from this process were 36.52 and 0.19 centimeters, respectively. Provide a 90%
confidence interval for µ.

Using x̄ ± z.05 ( √sn ) since n is large,

(.19)
36.52 ± (1.645) × √
80

36.52 ± .03494
(36.485, 36.555)

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 (b) (7) The confidence interval computed in part (a) is based on a certain assumption
about the distribution of x̄ ? In you own words, describe what this assumption
says ?

X̄ is assumed to be distr. as approximately Normal.

This assumption is justified by CLT since the sample size is large.

(c) (8) If, based on past data, σ is known to be about 0.20 centimeters, what sample
size should be used if it is desired to estimate µ to within 0.03 centimeters
with 90% confidence?
2 σ2
z.05
Use the formula n = B2
where B is the bound.
(1.6452 )(.22 )
n= (.03)2
= 120.267 giving 121 as the sample size needed.

3. Over the past 5 years, the mean time for a warehouse to fill a buyer’s order has been
25 minutes. Officials of the company believe that the length of time has increased
recently, either due to a change in the work force or due to a change in customer
purchasing policies. The processing time (in minutes) was recorded for a random
sample of 15 orders processed over the past month. The sample mean x̄ and the
standard deviation s were determined to be 28.2 and 8.45, respectively. You may
assume that the distribution of the length of the time is approximately normal.
(a) (9) Compute a 99% confidence interval for the current mean length of time to fill
an order. In your own words, give an interpretation of this interval.

Using x̄ ± t.005,15 ( √sn ) since n is small,

(8.45)
28.2 ± (2.977) × √
15

28.2 ± 6.495
(21.70, 34.70)
We have 99% confidence that the current mean length of time to fill an order, µ
lies in the above interval.

(b) (8) How important is the normality assumption in part (a) for the construction of
the 99% confidence interval? Explain.

Since the sample size is small, we must use the confidence interval based on
the t-statistic (i.e., need to look-up the t-table instead the z-table). For this
we need to assume that that the population has at least an approximately
Normal distribuion.

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 (c) (8) The interval in part (a) is far too wide for any practical use. How would you
construct a narrower interval using the same data? If you are allowed to obtain
a new sample, what would you do to obtain a narrower interval ?

Using the same data we could have computed an interval with a lower con-
fidence coefficient e.g., 95% instead of 99%. In this case we get a narrower
interval but have lower confidence that µ will be in the interval. A far better
approach would have been to take a larger sample such as n = 30.
4. A company that manufactures plastic sheeting is monitoring the uniformity of thickness
of the sheets using readings on a testing machine. Measurements are taken on n = 5
randomly selected positions on each 50 ft. roll produced and data on 25 consecutively
=
produced rolls are available. From these values of x = 3.25 mil R̄ = .42 mil are
calculated.

(a) (8) What characteristic of the output variable of a process is monitored by an

x̄-chart? Before the x̄-chart is constructed and used, what characteristic of
the output variable of the process do we must assure is stable? .

We use an x̄-chart to monitor the process mean.

We must make sure that the process variation (as measured by σ in our sta-
tistical model for the process output variable) is under control. We use an
R-chart for that purpose.
(b) (10) Calculate the UCL and LCL for the x̄-chart.

=
x +A2 R̄ = 3.25 + (.577)(.42) = 3.4923
=
x −A2 R̄ = 3.25 − (.577)(.42) = 3.0077
(c) (7) Construct the x̄-chart for the above process showing (and labelling properly)
the two axes, the centerline, UCL and LCL.

mean thickness
6

UCL=3.4923

CL=3.25

LCL=3.0077

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time order