BUSINESS ACUMEN FOR BUSINESS LEADERS

Capturing Opportunities in the Digital and Disruption Era

Prof. Ir. Roy Sembel, MBA, Ph.D, CSA

Twitter/IG: @ProfRoySembel FB/LinkedIn: Prof. Roy Sembel
January 2019
 Prof. Roy Sembel, Ir., MBA, Ph.D, CSA
• More than 30 years of balanced work experience in business and
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academia, including as a Writer, Speaker, Trainer, Entrepreneur, Investor

• Have facilitated hundreds of training / seminar for more than 100 clients
(multinational / state-owned / local companies) from variety of sectors
(Financial services/banks, Consumers goods, Telecom, Property, Energy,
Mining, Construction, Media, Pharmacy, Governement, NGO, etc)
• Finance Professor & former Dean, IPMI International Business School
• Co-Owner / Co-founder MDS (Data Science), MIOTA (Internet of Things)
• Previous work experiences: McKinsey & Co Jakarta, ABN AMRO Bank
Amsterdam, Bank Niaga, Jakarta Futures Exchange, Vriens & Partner, etc
• Author / Writer of more than 30 books and 1000 articles
• Studied at IPB, Rotterdam School of Management Erasmus University
Rotterdam, The Wharton School University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia,
University of Pittsburgh
 • E-mail: roy.sembel@gmail.com
• Twitter: @ProfRoySembel
• Instagram: @ProfRoySembel
• LinkedIn: Prof. Roy Sembel
• Facebook: Prof. Roy Sembel
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• WA: 0818 773 662
 COMMUNICATION:

• E-mail: roy.sembel@gmail.com
• Twitter: @ProfRoySembel
• Instagram: @ProfRoySembel
• LinkedIn: Prof. Roy Sembel
• Facebook: Prof. Roy Sembel

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 AGENDA
• INDUSTRY 4.0 AND VUCA CONTEXT
–Global Context
–Indonesia Context
• BUSINESS ACUMEN FOR BUSINESS
LEADERS
• Q&A

5
6
CYBER-PHYSICAL SYSTEM

Prof. Roy Sembel, Ph.D

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SPEED HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
Length of period Speed
Era [years] [km/jam] Time to cycle Earth
Agrarian 3-5000 3-5 3-5
(Age) (Human) (Years)

Industrial 3-500 (Revolution) 3-50 .3-.5

(Auto) (Months)

Post-industrial 3-50 3-500 .03-.05

(Trend) (Plane) (Days)

Friction-free 3-5 3-5000 (Network) .003-.005 (Hours)

(Fad)

Sumber:
8 Diolah dari T. G. Lewis, The friction-free economy
9
FROM OLD ECONOMY TO NEW ECONOMY

OLD Digitization / NEW

ECONOMY E-commerce ECONOMY
G
L New market structure
O New industry structure
B New firm structure
Capital Mobility A
L
I
Z
A
T
Liberalization I
O
N

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 THREE KEYS OF THE NEW ECONOMY
• More choices
•Interaction costs
• 24-hour services
• Just a ‘click’ away
•Transformation costs
• More and faster
interaction &
transactions

• Globalization dan
The rise of localization
the new
•Unbundling &
economy reassembling
business
organization,
government,
financial
instruments
• Faster natural selection Transparency &
• ‘Sticks and carrots’ to Competition
become more eficient &
inovative
HIGHER
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RETURN & RISK
… CREATE HIGHER
V.U.C.A
 V.U.C.A: THE NEW NORMAL

IPMI Executive Education Capabilities 13

 IMPACT OF V.U.C.A IF UNPREPARED

IPMI Executive Education Capabilities 14

 OBSOLETE PREDICTION …
• Ten years ago, the prediction was China’s GDP would
exceed Japan’s GDP in 2015, and America’s GDP in
2035.

• In 2010, China’s GDP > Japan’s GDP; already

overtaken America in the 2014 (GDPxPPP)

• Global crisis had been accelerating the shift by 5-20

years

• 2060 big four: China, India, America, ASEAN

 AGENDA
• INDUSTRY 4.0 AND VUCA CONTEXT
–Global Context
–Indonesia Context
• BUSINESS ACUMEN FOR BUSINESS
LEADERS
• Q&A

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 MOST OPTIMISTIC COUNTRIES ?

IPMI Executive Education Capabilities 17

 2018 & Beyond
?

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 THE YEARS OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY ?

Crisis trap is everywhere…..

CORRUPTION CASES

SAFETY / SECURITY

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 危机
????
Rich people focus on opportunities. Poor people
focus on obstacles. (Chinese Proverb)
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SWOT ANALYSIS for the Economy
STRENGHTS: OPPORTUNITIES:
? Growth of China / India
? US economic recovery
? ICT growth
? Intra ASEAN cooperation
? WTO / AFTA
?

WEAKNESSES: THREATS:
Cryonism (KKN) Physical terrorism
Law enforcement Economic terrorism
Low Human Development Index Tropical diseases
Lack of quantity/quality infrastructure Volatility of commodity prices
Market distortion Natural disasters
Week PR
Democracy/Political maturity still in transition
 Some highlights on Indonesia
• 4th most populous country, total population in 2018 ~ 264
million, with rising middle class
• GDP ranking: 16th (Nominal), 7th-8th (Purchasing Power
Parity adjusted), represents ~40% of ASEAN GDP
• Top 3 highest GDP growth among G20 countries
• Rich in combined marine and land biodiversity
• Rich in cultural and natural heritage
• Strategic location between 2 continents (Asia and
Australia) and 2 oceans (Indian and Pacific)
• Advantage of having demographic bonus in the next 15-20
years
• Mobile phone customers >350mn, Internet users > 140mn
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 PROSPECT OF BUSINESS IN 2018/9 & BEYOND
•Relatively low but increasing
interest rate
•Global V.U.C.A
•GDP per capita ~ $ 4000
•Pressure on IDR & IHSG
•GDP growth still ~ 5%
•Inflation ~ 4%
•Mobile phone > 350 million
•Village, Infrastructure &
Maritime development
•Domestic consumption / Rising
middle class
•Political years
•Domestic Stocks ➔ Long-term investment,
short-term trading
•EBA, REITs, Property
•Risk management / hedging
•Gold, Currency ➔ Trading
•Sharing economy, Businesses that
leverage social media / e-Commerce, IoT,
Data Science, Big Data Analytics, e-
Platform
•Travel, Tourism, Transportation
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•Infrastructure, alternative energy, recycle
business, modern retail outlet,
international-quality education, healthcare /
hospitals, etc
 24
IPMI Executive Education Capabilities
 Projection of Indonesia Economy?

Realized Forecast
Indicators
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

1. Inflation (%, yoy) 8,38 8,36 3,35 3,61 3,02 3,13

10.47 14.380
2. Rp/USD 11.878 13.800 13.473 13,548
0
3. BI rate / 7d Repo rate
(%)
7,5 7,75 7,50 4,75 4,25 6,00

4. GDP Growth (%) 5,78 5,1 4,79 5,0 5,1 5,1-5,3

5. IHSG 4274 5227 4593 5297 6356 6194,5

6. Gini Index 0,402 0,394 0,391 0,384

Page 25
TOTAL NOMINAL GDP

Japan
2010 USA 2010
$5,7 T $14,5 T

Indonesia 2017 Indonesia 2038

$1,01 T $5,7 T
Indonesia
2050
$14,5 T
RANK 16 RANK 4

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 AGENDA
• INDUSTRY 4.0 AND VUCA CONTEXT
–Global Context
–Indonesia Context
• BUSINESS ACUMEN FOR BUSINESS
LEADERS
• Q&A

27
 HOW TO COPE WITH V.U.C.A?
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 The
Battlefield
Intermediaries

Customers
Incumbents
Start Ups

New Life Forms

 PREPARING TO ‘HANDLE’ V.U.C.A

NEED
TO
MASTER
BUSINESS
ACUMEN

IPMI Executive Education Capabilities 30

 WHAT IS BUSINESS ACUMEN

“..keenness and quickness in

understanding and dealing with a business
situation in a manner that is likely to lead
to a good outcome..”
(Reilly, Dr. Raymond R and Reilly, Dr. Gregory P. "Building
Business Acumen", HR West, December 2009)

IPMI Executive Education Capabilities 31

 BUSINESS ACUMEN COMPONENTS

Mastery of business, in terms of:

NUMBERS, STORIES BEHIND THE NUMBERS,
PEOPLE BEHIND THE STORIES AND NUMBERS
Prof. Roy Sembel, Ph.D 32
ABCDEFGH of Business ACUMEN
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
 BUSINESS-Q
• Innovation and Technology
utilization
• People Empowerment
Knowledge & Skills
Motivation
Behavior
• Optimal Allocation of Resources
• Collaboration / Cooperation
• Risk Management
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 SUCCESS AS BUSINESS LEADERS

Rp

DEPEND MORE ON
HABITS / EQ, CQ, SQ Knowledge
without
LESS ON KNOWLEDGE/ correct habits
is
IQ powerless
Jake Bernstein
36 The Investor’s Quotient
LEARNING IS AN IMPORTANT PART OF
BEING A BUSINESS LEADER

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 COMPONENT OF SUCCESS

20%

80%

38 Technical Mindset
 Intrapersonal Skill
Change management
Stress management
Time management
Creative thinking processes
Goal setting & life purpose
Accelerated learning techniques

Interpersonal Skill
Communication skills
Relationship building
Motivation skills
Leadership skills
Self-marketing skills
Negotiation skills
Presentation skills
Public speaking skills
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Two mindsets
Mindset

• Related to your belief about ability

• Creates a whole mental world for you to live
in
• Fixed mindset – ability cannot change
• Growth mindset – ability can change (grow)
Who are they?
Role models?

….Einstein's teacher said that he was ‘academically

subnormal’

….Michael Jordan's coach said that he wasn’t more

talented than other people…

…..Walt Disney was told that he lacked ‘creative

imagination’
‘People are made, not born’
The ‘growth mindset’
RIGHT BRAIN VS LEFT BRAIN

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NEW SOURCES OF VALUE
CREATION: INTANGIBLES

Intangibles
• Intellectual Property
• Human capital
• Brand/Reputation
• Network
• Public Support

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 6 Sources of Corporate Value
Tangible Assets

Physical Assets Land, buildings, machineries, inventories

Cash, receivables, investments, sources

Financial Assets
of debt & equity

Motivated & skilled employees, efficient

Employee & Supplier Assets
Intangible Assets

suppliers
Customer relationships, distribution
Customer Assets
channels
Leadership, corporate values, stratgegic
Organization Assets planning systems, balanced scorecard,
patents & other intellectual assets

Reputational Assets Public support, good corporate citizen

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OPPORTUNITY IS EVERYWHERE
INTERNAL EXTERNAL
RIDING ON A TREND
OPTIMIZE EXISTING RESOURCES
Tangible Assets GEOGRAPHY
Intangible Assets
DEMOGRAPHY
CAPACITY BUILDING
PSYCHOGRAPHY

INNOVATION
CREATING A TREND

NEW PRODUCTS

NEW WAYS OF DOING BUSINESS

NEW TECHNOLOGY
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 CAPACITY BUILDING
GOAL

Culture

‘Hardware’ ‘Software’

Leadership

‘Marketware’ ‘Brainware’
IPMI Executive Education Capabilities 51
 TAKE AWAYS
BE ALERT, DO NOT PANIC!

THINK BALANCE: SHORT & LONG TERM

PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES

RISK MANAGEMENT
Prof. Roy Sembel, Ph.D 53
 AGENDA
• INDUSTRY 4.0 AND VUCA CONTEXT
–Global Context
–Indonesia Context
• BUSINESS ACUMEN FOR BUSINESS
LEADERS
• Q&A

54
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 MAKAN SIRIH
DI TEPI PERIGI
TERIMAKASIH,
SAMPAI JUMPA LAGI
…..…