Washington Examiner 2010 Election Guide

6 p.m. ET

Indiana (Eastern)

• IN-9: Think of Rep. Baron Hill, D, as the canary in the coal mine. If he survives this challenge from
Todd Young, then something is not happening that the GOP expected. Republicans might be facing
an evening of disappointment.

Kentucky (Eastern)

• KY-6: Aside from the Senate race, this is the only game in Kentucky. Rep. Ben Chandler, D, has
been dinged for voting for cap-and-trade, but he voted against Obamacare. His challenger, Andy
Barr, has taken heat for being part of former Gov. Ernie Fletcher's unpopular administration. A
Republican takeover here – a slightly less-than-even proposition – is a good omen for the GOP.

7 p.m. ET

Florida (Eastern)

• FL-8: Rep. Alan Grayson, D, known for his abrasive personality, will find out just how effective it is
to call his opponent, Dan Webster, a member of the Taliban.
• FL-24: Rep. Suzanne Kosmas, D, is a goner.
• FL-22: Rep. Ron Klein, D, trails in the latest polls. Should he win, Allen West would be one of at
least two (and possibly three) black Republicans in the U.S. House.
• FL-25: Here's a seat that Republicans are at risk of losing. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, R, probably could
have won re-election, but he chose instead to move to the safer district of his brother, retiring Rep.
Lincoln Diaz-Balart. This left a weaker GOP candidate, David Rivera, to face Democrat Joe
Garcia, D. Rivera is only narrowly favored.

Georgia

• GA-GOV: The question is not whether former Rep. Nathan Deal, R, finishes first, but whether he
can get more than 50 percent and avoid a runoff against former Gov. Roy Barnes, D. This race has big
implications for redistricting.

• GA-8: After several unsuccessful tries, Republicans should finally defeat Rep. Jim Marshall, D, and
soundly. Austin Scott is his young opponent.
• GA-2: It could take a while to decide the fate of Rep. Sanford Bishop, D, the most moderate
member of the Congressional Black Caucus. He was caught up in the Black Caucus Scholarship
nepotism scandal. The district is 46 percent black by population, but much more conservative than
you might expect.

Indiana (Central Time)

• IN-SEN: Having spent most of the election denouncing the lobbying career of Republican Dan
Coats, Rep. Brad Ellsworth, D, might as well start looking for a job on K Street himself. Easy GOP
pickup.
• IN-2: A small chunk of this district is in the Central Time Zone, so don't expect an early call. Rep. Joe
Donnelly, D, should win. If he loses this seat to Republican Jackie Walorski, Democrats should
brace themselves for a nationwide bloodbath.
• IN-8: Democrats abandoned this seat long ago. Republican heart surgeon Larry Bucshon should
win the vacant "Bloody Eighth" going away, gain of one for the GOP.
Kentucky (Central)

• KY-SEN: Kentucky will likely elect America's first Aqua-Buddhist senator, Rand Paul. The race
was basically sealed up after Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway’s negative ads backfired.

South Carolina

• SC-GOV: Republican State Rep. Nikki Haley is the clear favorite.

• SC-SEN: Despite South Carolinians' sense of humor, Sen. Jim DeMint, R, will easily defeat
Democrat Alvin Greene.
• SC-5: House Budget Chairman John Spratt, D, will soon be spending a lot more time with his
family.

Virginia

• VA-2: Rep. Glenn Nye, D, will likely fall to auto dealer Scott Rigell, R.
• VA-5: Rep. Tom Perriello, D, hopes that a late visit by President Obama will help. But Obma is
very unpopular here, Perriello is a bad fit for the district, and Republican Robert Hurt leads.
• VA-9: Rep. Rick Boucher, D, voted for cap-and-trade, the last thing his coal-producing district
wanted. His challenger, state House GOP leader Morgan Griffith, R, appears to be surging just in
time to make this one very close.
• VA-11: Surprisingly, there have been no independent, public polls of this wealthy, moderate swing
district in Northern Virginia, but the political pros apparently know something the rest of us don’t:
The DCCC dumped $1 million into the district last week. Gov. Bob McDonnell, R, carried it handily
one year ago, and Rep. Gerry Connolly, D, is now running such a strongly negative campaign as to
suggest that he thinks he is losing. If Connolly falls to the conservative Keith Fimian, it's a sign that
this is going to be a very long night for Democrats, who are vulnerable in many upper-middle class
suburban districts like this one. If it’s close, Connolly may be a victim of Jon Stewart, whose rally on
the weekend before the election probably deprived him of volunteers at a critical time.

Vermont

• VT-GOV: Democrat Peter Shumlin has a slightly better-than even shot of picking up this open
governorship governorship by defeating Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie, R.

7:30 p.m.

Ohio

• OH-GOV: Just four years after the disastrous administration of Republican Gov. Bob Taft, former
Rep. John Kasich, R, should narrowly defeat Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland.
• OH-SEN: Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, D, gave up early and handed his remaining campaign cash to the
state party. So don't be surprised when former Rep. Rob Portman, R, keeps this seat in the GOP
column.
• OH-1: Former Rep. Steve Chabot, R, is heavily favored in his quest to defeat Rep. Steve
Driehaus, D, and return to Congress.
• OH-6: Charlie W ilson, D, in a rural Ohio district, presents another bellwether. He seemed safe just
a few weeks ago, but may now lose.
• OH-13: After sexual assault allegations surfaced against her challenger, Rep. Betty Sutton, D,
should win easily.
• OH-15: For Republican Steve Stivers, second time will be the charm against Rep. Mary Jo
Kilroy, D. She’s a goner, abandoned early by the DCCC.
• OH-16: Rep. John Boccieri, D, will probably be looking for a new job on Wednesday.
• OH-18: Rep. Zack Space, D, the safest of Ohio's endangered incumbents, might still have a late
night.
North Carolina

• NC-SEN: Republican Sen. Richard Burr will likely become the first person since the 1970s to hold
this seat for more than a single term.
• NC-2: If Rep. Bob Etheridge, D, loses to nurse Renee Ellmers -- and one recent poll suggests he
might-- then Democrats can pretty much abandon all hope of keeping the House.
• NC-7: You've probably never even heard of Rep. Mike McIntyre, D, but his defeat at the hands of
Republican Ilario Pantano would be enough to empty out all of the liquor cabinets at the National
Democratic club.
• NC-8: Rep. Larry Kissell, D, is a poor fundraiser locked in a tough race in a tight district. He could
well be swept away.
• NC-11: Rep. Heath Shuler, D, on the other hand, should be safe.

W est Virginia

• W V-SEN: Despite a federal investigation into his administration, Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin, D,
is favored to win the special election triggered by the death of Sen. Robert Byrd, D. If Manchin loses to
Republican John Raese, then hopes of a Senate takeover remain alive.
• W V-1: The open seat of Rep. Alan Mollohan, D, is a toss-up between moderate Democrat Mike
Oliverio and Republican David McKinley.

8 p.m.

If Republicans aren't already into double-digit House gains, then there's probably no huge wave coming.

Alabama

• AL-2: There's precious little polling to hint at the future of Rep. Bobby Bright, D, but the
composition of his district and a strong Republican in the governor's race both work against him. His
challenger is Republican Martha Roby.

Connecticut

• CT-GOV: Here’s an upset in the making. After trailing by a dozen points a month ago, Republican
Tom Foley has made a strong stretch run and may well keep the governorship of Connecticut in
GOP hands, although it will be close. Foley’s opponent, Democratic former Stamford Mayor Dan
Malloy, alienated many Democrats with his brutally negative primary campaign against businessman
Ned Lamont, something of a hero to liberals for his 2006 challenge to Sen. Joe Lieberman.
• CT-SEN: Expect Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, D, to keep this open seat in the
Democratic column.
• CT-5: Rep. Chris Murphy is one the Democrats' rising stars and one of his state's most polished
politicians, but he will have to beat back a serious threat from Republican Sam Caligiuri if he wants
to run for Senate against Lieberman in 2012.
• CT-4: Rep. Jim Himes, D, is in serious peril from Republican Dan Debicella. The race is close and
this wealthy district has elected moderate Republicans in the past, such as former Rep. Chris Shays.
This is one of the few places where the Wall Street bailout is viewed positively.

Delaware

• DE-SEN: This race should not even be on the list. The only thing more surprising than conservatives'
willingness to overlook the personal baggage of Republican Christine O'Donnell in the primary is
the liberal media's desire to give this race wall-to-wall coverage in order to damage conservative
candidates everywhere. Get used to it: Sen. Chris Coons, D.
• DE-AL: Delaware's only House seat, currently held by liberal Rep. Mike Castle, R, will likely go to
liberal Democrat John Carney.
Florida (Central Time)

• FL-GOV: Businessman Rick Scott, R, and state CFO Alex Sink, D, have see-sawed in the polls.
The race will have huge implications for redistricting. Scott’s problem: Very high negatives. Sink’s
problem: Early voter turnout has been so strongly GOP that she might not make it.
• FL-SEN: Marco Rubio, R, is firmly in control of his three-way race against Gov. Charlie Crist, I,
and Rep. Kendrick Meek, D. Last-minute attempts to force Meek out of the race have backfired on
Crist and could even endanger Democratic turnout in all other races. It is entirely possible that Crist
will finish third.
• FL-2: Democratic Rep. Allen Boyd's career will come to an end, thanks largely to his vote for
Obamacare.

Illinois

• IL-GOV: Gov. Pat Quinn, D, had the misfortune of being Rod Blagojevich's running mate. He is
expected to lose to Republican Bill Brady.
• IL-SEN: Rep. Mark Kirk, R, approaches Election Day as the favorite. State Treasurer Alexi
Giannoulias, D, may have had too much baggage, despite the state’s Democratic lean.
• IL-8: Expect Rep. Melissa Bean, D, to hang on after drawing a weak challenger. Then again, she
could be hurt by the state Democratic Party's s screw-up on absentee ballots. NEED LINK HERE
• IL-10: A rare Democratic pickup opportunity, Democrat Dan Seals, who lost to Kirk last election, is
the favorite to win his open suburban Chicago seat this year.
• IL-11: Freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson, D, should be a goner.
• IL-14: In a 2006 special election, Rep. Bill Foster, D, defeated a weak opponent and took the seat of
former Republican Speaker Dennis Hastert. Republican Randy Hultgren is favored to reclaim it.
• IL-17: Here's an unlikely loser: Rep. Phil Hare, D. His polling has been abysmal, he seems to have
taken re-election for granted until it was too late, and he is far more socially liberal than his working-
class district. Pizzeria owner Bobby Schilling, R, has been running some of the most devastating
ads of the cycle attacking Hare over the district's high unemployment and shuttered factories. This is
a legitimately Democratic district (Kerry won it 2004), and so a Republican pickup would be a big deal.

Kansas

• KS-GOV: Sen. Sam Brownback, R, has probably been measuring for drapes for the last five
months, and with good reason. He will take over the governorship for the GOP.
• KS-3: Rep. Dennis Moore, D, is giving up this seat, and his wife Stephene Moore is running to
replace him. Never a good idea, and she will prove it when she loses by double digits.

Massachusetts

• MA-GOV: Massachusetts voters will probably reelect Gov. Deval Patrick, D, by a narrow margin
over Republican Charlie Baker.
• MA-4: It's hard to imagine a true conservative like Republican Sean Bielat defeating Rep. Barney
Frank, D, in a district that really does look a fat salamander, but Frank has taken the threat very
seriously.
• MA-10: This open district, the Republicans' best takeover opportunity in Massachusetts, will more
likely to stay in the Democratic column. Jeff Perry, R, has been beaten down badly by accusations
that he ignored malfeasance when he served in the Wareham Police Department.

Maryland

• MD-GOV: Gov. Martin O'Malley, D, should win this one going away.
• MD-1: Rep. Frank Kratovil, D, won this district in 2008 on the back of President Obama's strong
showing. He is expected to lose against his repeat challenger, Republican Andy Harris.

Maine
 • ME-GOV: It's not often that Maine elects a conservative statewide, but it looks like it's going to
happen. Tea Party Republican Paul LePage, who promises the state's fishermen that he'll tell
President Obama to "go to hell" if he must, leads in the governor's race. The Democratic candidate,
Libby Mitchell, has accumulated such high negative ratings that she is a huge underdog in this
three-way race.
• ME-1: Late polls suggest trouble and possible defeat for Rep. Chellie Pingree, D, but a takeover by
Republican Dean Scontras is highly unlikely. If it happens, Democrats should put away sharp
objects.
• ME-2: Moderate Rep. Mike Michaud, D, should survive a spirited but under-funded challenge from
Jason Levesque.

Michigan

• MI-GOV: An easy takeover for Rick Snyder, R. The big question is whether the state House will go
back to the GOP.
• MI-1: The Upper Peninsula seat left open by retiring Rep. Bart Stupak, D, will likely flip to GOP
doctor Dan Benishek.
• MI-7: It looks like Rep. Mark Schauer, D, should hang on and win after a brutal, costly race against
former Rep. Tim W alberg, R.
• MI-9: Rep. Gary Peters, D, should also survive, but he'd be among those to lose if the wave is high
enough.

Missouri

• MO-SEN: What Senate race? Republican Rep. Roy Blunt should cruise to victory over Robin
Carnahan, one of the Democrats' most highly touted and disappointing candidates of 2010.
• MO-3: This is a pretty unlikely pickup for the GOP, but Republican Ed Martin entered the final
stretch with a cash advantage over Rep. Russ Carnahan, D. The incumbent is hurting from his
sister's presence at the top of the ticket, his brother's stimulus profiteering, and last minute anti-
Catholic attacks launched by one of his former campaign aides against Martin. The district, which
includes part of St. Louis and Sainte Genevieve County, is heavily Catholic.
• MO-4: Rep. Ike Skelton, D, has long represented a very Republican district, and this might well be
his last term.

Mississippi

• MS-1: Rep. Travis Childers, D, elected first in a special election, is probably a goner.
• MS-4: Bartenders at the Tune Inn on Capitol Hill may soon miss Rep. Gene Taylor, D, a frequent
patron. The moderate Democrat was on no one's radar just two months ago, but he suddenly finds
himself in danger of losing to Steve Palazzo, R.

New Hampshire

• NH-SEN: Republican Kelly Ayotte will win this one decisively.

• NH-1: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, D, surprised everyone when she won this seat in 2006. No one will
be surprised on Tuesday if Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, R, defeats her by ten points.
• NH-2: This open seat, in the northwest half of the state, will be a very close one. Former Rep.
Charlie Bass, R, is taking on left-wing darling Ann Kuster, D.

New Jersey

• NJ-3: Rep. John Adler, D, trails in some polls against former NFL offensive tackle Jon Runyan, R.
• NJ-6: Anna Little, R, is probably doomed to fall short in her bid against Rep. Frank Pallone, D,
but don't count out the Little engine that could. This one would be a true grassroots victory.
Pennsylvania

• PA-GOV: This critical contest for redistricting dominance will likely go to Republican Attorney
General Tom Corbett. If Republicans also recover the state House, they will run the Keystone state
for at least two years.
• PA-SEN: Despite some recent signs of tightening, former Rep. Pat Toomey, R, has made no serious
mistakes and appears to be firmly in control of this race. He will likely defeat Rep. Joe Sestak, D, by
four or five points.
• PA-3: Freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, D, is a goner.
• PA-4: Rep. Jason Altmire, D, should survive, thanks in large part to his vote against Obamacare.
• PA-7: The open suburban Philly seat of Rep. Sestak will probably go to Republican Pat Meehan
instead of Democrat Bryan Lentz.
• PA-8: Rep. Patrick Murphy, D, is in a tough race against the man he defeated in 2006, former Rep.
Mike Fitzpatrick, R.
• PA-10: Rep. Chris Carney, D looks like a hopeless cause, despite his Republican opponent's
baggage. This district is just far too Republican and his vote for health care sealed his fate.
• PA-11: Despite one late poll showing him in the lead, Rep. Paul Kanjorski, D, appears likely to lose
in his third matchup against Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta, R.
• PA-12: Rep. Mark Critz, D, is expected to survive his second contest against Tim Burns, but it
could be close.

Tennessee

• TN-GOV: It won't be close. Republicans will pick up this governorship headlining a potentially very
good day for the Volunteer State GOP. They will likely have a chance to solidify their gains in
redistricting.
• TN-4: Rep. Lincoln Davis, D, launched one of the nastiest personal attack ads of 2010, and it
appears to have blown up in his face. Doctor Scott DesJarlais, R, will be there to end his career.
• TN-6: Democrats failed to field a credible candidate to replace retiring Rep. Bart Gordon, D, and so
this will be one of the Republicans' easiest pickups.
• TN-8: In this open seat, farmer and Gospel singer Steve Fincher, R, who has promised he will not
work with Nancy Pelosi or President Obama, should soundly defeat state Sen. Roy Herron, D.

Texas (Central Time)

• TX-17: Republicans have been gunning for Rep. Chet Edwards, D, for several cycles. This time,
Republican Bill Flores will finally get him.
• TX-27: Moderate Rep. Solomon Ortiz, D, will probably hang on to win, but only after getting the
scare of his political life after allegations that he has passed contracts to a firm in which he has a
personal interest.

8:30 p.m., ET

Arkansas

• AR-1: Republican Rick Crawford is favored to take over the seat of retiring Rep. Marion Berry, D.
• AR-2: Tim Griffin, the GOP nominee, is the strong favorite to seize the Little Rock seat of retiring
Rep. Vic Snyder, D.

9 p.m. ET

Polls close in several states and also in the far-west end of Texas.

Arizona

• AZ-GOV: Gov. Jan Brewer should hang on to win a full term.

 • AZ-1: Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, D, is probably a goner in this fair-fight seat.
• AZ-3: Republicans worry that Ben Quayle, son of former Vice President Dan Quayle, might blow it
and lose the heavily Republican open seat left open by retiring Rep. John Shadegg, R.
• AZ-5: Rep. Harry Mitchell, D, is the underdog against Republican repeat challenger Dave
Schweikert.
• AZ-7: Rep. Raul Grijalva, D, was one of the leading voices calling for a boycott of his own state
after Arizona passed its landmark immigration law. It was the act of a rigid ideologue and a sign that
he is out of touch with his constituents. Some areas in his district suffer from 30 percent
unemployment. Even so, the district is still so heavily Democratic that a victory by 28-year-old rocket
scientist Ruth McClung, R, would still be something of a miracle.
• AZ-8: The race between Rep. Gabbie Giffords, D, and Jesse Kelly, R, will be very, very close.

Colorado

• CO-GOV: Former Rep. Tom Tancredo, running as an independent conservative, will probably not
be able to overtake Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, D.
• CO-SEN: This is the most expensive Senate race of 2010. Republican district attorney Ken Buck
and appointed Sen. Michael Bennet are basically tied in the final stretch, slight advantage to Buck.
Early turnout looks good for Republicans.
• CO-3: Rep. John Salazar, D, who no one thought vulnerable earlier this year, will likely lose to
Republican Scott Tipton.
• CO-4: Despite her opponent's many gaffes, Rep. Betsy Markey, D, is a goner.
• CO-7: The endorsement of the Denver Post might not be enough to put Ryan Frazier, R, over the
top in his challenge to Rep. Ed Perlmutter, D.

Louisiana

• LA-SEN: Overcoming a sex scandal, David Vitter, R, will easily win re-election.
• LA-2: Rep. Joseph Cao, R, has his work cut out for him here. He got this New Orleans seat by
beating a sitting member of Congress who was actually under indictment. He may not be able to beat
Cedric Richmond, who has merely been steering state money to his friends' non-profits, from one of
which others embezzled. Likely Democratic pickup.
• LA-3: Republican Jeff Landry will seize this seat, vacated by Rep. Charles Melancon, D. His future
will be very much in question, though, since the seat will likely have to take in much of New Orleans
after redistricting.

Minnesota

• MN-GOV: Whatever the national trend, Minnesotans appear ready to elect former Sen. Mark
Dayton, D, as their next governor with a plurality vote.
• MN-1: Republicans would love to catch Rep. Tim Walz, D, unaware, the way Waltz surprised
everyone when he defeated Rep. Gil Gutknecht, R, in 2006. The chances are slim for Randy
Demmer, R, but then again, so were Walz's.
• MN-8: This is a longshot, but late polls suggest it’s a real possibility. The defeat of Rep. James
Oberstar, D, at the hands of Republican Chip Cravaak, would be as big a deal as Barney Frank
losing his race. It would also represent a realignment win for the GOP.

New Mexico

• NM-GOV: Republican Susana Martinez will easily win this race over Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, D, a
big Republican pickup that comes just in time to save the GOP from an adverse redistricting process
next year.
• NM-1: Rep. Martin Heinrich, D, is the narrow favorite over Republican Jon Barela, but the race
is close enough that he could be swept away by a top-ticket blowout.
• NM-2: Former Rep. Steve Pearce, R, who gave up this seat in 2008 to run for Senate, is favored to
unseat Rep. Harry Teague, D, despite large independent expenditures by environmentalist groups.
New York

• NY-1: Rep. Tim Bishop, D, is now facing a well-funded challenge from Republican Randy
Altschuler. Bishop should win, but it will be close.
• NY-13: Rep. Mike McMahon, D, should prevail in this southwest Brooklyn and Staten Island seat,
once held by Rep. Vito Fossella, R.
• NY-19: Rep. John Hall, D, is in serious danger of losing to moderate ophthalmologist Nan
Hayworth, R.
• NY-20: Rep. Scott Murphy, who narrowly won a 2009 special election, might not get to serve out a
full term in Congress.
• NY-22: Rep. Maurice Hinchey, D, raised little money this cycle and has been pummeled by the
local press for earmarks that have benefited himself and his business partners. He has done
everything he can to lose, including telling a reporter to "shut up" – the tape of that outburst has since
made the rounds in ads. His local newspaper, reliably supportive in the past, has refused to endorse
him this time. Hinchey's opponent, schoolteacher George Phillips, R, has not made any serious
mistakes, but the district's Democratic lean may prove to be too great for him.
• NY-23: Rep. Bill Owens, D, is polling in the low 40s and has an excellent chance of losing to
Republican Matt Doheny, now that the Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffmann, has dropped
out.
• NY-24: Rep. Mike Arcuri, D, and Republican Richard Hanna are locked in a very close race.
Arcuri, yes-to-no switch on the health care vote, started campaigning against the mosque in lower
Manhattan after Hanna took a more reasoned stance on the issue.
• NY-29: Republicans will have no trouble at all taking over the district of former Rep. and alleged
groper Eric Massa, D. Gov. David Paterson, D, deliberately left this seat vacant for nine months.
Thomas Reed, R, be seated right away for the lameduck.

North Dakota

• ND-SEN: Gov. John Hoeven will easily pick up this open seat for the GOP.
• ND-AL: Rep. Earl Pomeroy, D, is running an ad now in which he basically apologizes to his state for
being a Democrat. He's far too liberal for North Dakota, and his survival through so many election
cycles is something of a miracle. Pomeroy is still in it, but Republican Rick Berg is favored to unseat
him.

Rhode Island

• RI-GOV: Rhode Island has not had a Democratic governor in 15 years, and it probably won't for at
least four more, even though popular conservative Gov. Don Carcieri, R, is term-limited. Former Sen.
Lincoln Chafee, who is running as an independent, seems likely to win after President Obama
refused to endorse Democrat Frank Caprio. Three-way races have a way of being unpredictable,
though. Even Republican John Robitaille has a chance.
• RI-1: It is hard to imagine how things could have gotten any worse for Providence Mayor David
Cicilline in this open-seat race. Municipal corruption and his management were called into question
right at the end by a scathing report from Providence's city auditor. But Cicilline is still favored to
defeat John Loughlin, R, who has run a lackluster campaign.

South Dakota

• SD-AL: Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, D, is polling poorly and was massively outraised by her
Republican opponent, Kristi Noem. Still, she's not out of it. Wait for Shannon County -- an Indian
reservation in the Mountain time zone -- to report before declaring her defeat.

Texas (Mountain)

• TX-GOV: Despite substantial efforts by trial lawyers on behalf of Democratic former Houston Mayor
Bill W hite, Gov. Rick Perry, R, has a clear edge in his race for re-election. This contest, along with
Republicans' effort to hold the state House, will determine whether Republicans control the
 redistricting process once again. And yes, there is a chance the GOP loses ground in the legislature,
even this year.
• TX-23: Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, D, among the most liberal of the South Texas Hispanic congressmen,
received a huge break from the Supreme Court in a landmark redistricting case a few years ago. But
even with the more favorable map, he faces possible defeat at the hands of Republican Quico
Canseco. It does not help Rodriguez that he was caught on tape losing his temper with a constituent
while discussing health care reform. This one will be close.

W isconsin

• W I-GOV: Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker, R, is heavily favored to defeat Milwaukee
Mayor Tom Barrett, D. Both houses of the state legislature could flip, giving Republicans a chance
to draw the new congressional map.
• W I-SEN: The entire cheesehead state looks miserable for Democrats this year. Republican
businessman Ron Johnson jumped to an early lead over Sen. Russ Feingold, D, and there seems to
be no coming back. Johnson would be one of very, very few Republican self-funders ever to win a
statewide race anywhere.
• W I-3: Despite a late breaking scandal regarding alleged selling of access, Rep. Ron Kind, D, is still
favored to keep his rural Democratic district.
• W I-7: Republican Sean Duffy is favored to take over the district of retiring Rep. David Obey, D.
• W I-8: Rep. Steve Kagen, D, is being dragged to defeat by President Obama's deep-seated
unpopularity in this Green Bay district.

W yoming

• W Y-GOV: Republicans will pick up the open governorship here with ease.

10 p.m., ET

Iowa

• IA-GOV: Gov. Chet Culver, D, is one of the most unpopular human beings in the state of Iowa.
Only a miracle will save him from defeat at the hands of former Republican Gov. Terry Branstad.
• IA-1: There is no reason to think that Rep. Bruce Braley, D, will lose, except that outside groups
have dedicated a significant sum to defeating him. It would be a complete surprise if he loses, a by-
product of the top-ticket drubbing Democrats are going to take in Iowa.
• IA-2: When Rep. Dave Loebsack, D, won in 2006, it was completely unexpected. He is in some
trouble now, although he remains the favorite.
• IA-3: Republicans' hopes of unseating Rep. Leonard Boswell, D, were dashed by their own
candidate's flaws.

Nevada

• NV-GOV: Susana Martinez will not be the only Republican Hispanic governor in January -- Brian
Sandoval will easily win his race over Democrat Rory Reid, son of Sen. Harry Reid.
• NV-SEN: The smackdown between Republican former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle and Sen.
Harry Reid, D, has been a battle over who can drive up the other's negatives higher. Expect a late
night of ballot-counting. Slight advantage for Angle going in -- she will win big among independent
voters, but the "Republicans for Reid" organization is for real, and it's hurting her among moderate
Republicans.
• NV-3: This is one of the closest and most closely watched House races in America. Republican
physician Joe Heck is challenging freshman Rep. Dina Titus, D.

11 p.m., ET

If Republicans have not seized a House majority by the time these races are called, then it's unlikely to happen.
California

• CA-GOV: After spending a nine-figure sum on her candidacy, Republican former E-Bay CEO Meg
W hitman will lose to former Gov. Jerry Brown. Another takeover for the Democrats.
• CA-SEN: Whatever Republican surge might be going on in the rest of America, the winds of change
just aren't blowing here. Sen. Barbara Boxer, D, has to be considered a strong favorite over former
HP CEO Carly Fiorina.
• CA-11: Rep. Jerry McNerney, D, is expected to lose his seat to Republican David Harmer.
• CA-20: It's a longshot, but farmers here might just be angry enough with Democrats for turning off
their water that they replace Rep. Jim Costa, D, with Republican Andy Vidak, R.
• CA-47: Speaking of longshots, what do you think the odds are that "the Vietnamese," who make up 15
percent of this district's population, can take away the heavily Hispanic seat of Rep. Loretta
Sanchez, D? Some people think they're decent odds, but the gerrymander will be working against
Republican Van Tran.

Hawaii

• HI-GOV: Democrat Neil Abercrombie is favored to pick up this governorship after eight years
under moderate Republican Gov. Linda Lingle.
• HI-1: The polls in Honolulu are conflicting, but Republican Rep. Charles Djou has about even odds
of keeping this seat against Democrat Colleen Hanabusa.

Idaho

• ID-1: Moderate Rep. W alt Minnick, D, began the cycle with a Tea Party endorsement (which was
recently revoked). The GOP primary win by underdog Republican state Rep. Raul Labrador seemed
to suggest Minnick would be safe. Labrador’s fundraising has been anemic and the NRCC has totally
abandoned him. Yet Labrador has somehow closed a large gap and Minnick’s unforced errors have
him polling dangerously below 45 percent. The district is so heavily Republican (nearly 70 percent for
President Bush in 2004) that he may not survive.

Oregon

• OR-GOV: Republican NBA star Chris Dudley is neck and neck with former Gov. John
Kitzhauber, D.
• OR-5: Rep. Kurt Schrader, D, is in danger of losing his seat to Scott Bruun, R.

W ashington State

• W A-SEN: Sen. Patty Murray, D, is within an inch of her political life against former state Sen.
Dino Rossi, R, but we might not know the final tally for some time, because nearly all voting is
conducted by mail.
• W A-3: Republican Jaime Herrera is favored to pick up the seat of retiring Rep. Brian Baird, D.

12 a.m., ET

Alaska

• AK-SEN: Conservative attorney Joe Miller, R, defeated Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R, in the GOP
primary, to everyone's shock. Since then, he has run a dreadful campaign and made enough mistakes
that he probably deserves to lose. Don't be surprised if Murkowski tops him. It’s probably not worth
staying up to find out what happens. Murkowski's write-in campaign guarantees that the count will
take a long time -- possibly days, if voters’ ability to spell her name correctly becomes an issue.
Democrats hope that their candidate, Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams, can sneak through and win
with a narrow plurality of the vote.