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Net absorption totaled negative 74,000 SF during the 2nd quarter of 2010,
compared to negative 177,000 SF during the 1st quarter. This compares to
the quarterly average of negative 162,000 SF during 2009. Net absorption
totaled negative 649,000 SF during 2009, below the 25-year annual average
of 1.4 million SF.
NET ABSORPTION OF OFFICE SPACE • Celera Genomics Corporation vacated 108,000 SF at 45 W. Gude
Suburban Maryland Counties | First Half 2010 Drive.
• GMAC Financial Services vacated 76,000 SF at 7501 Wisconsin
Montgomery Avenue in Bethesda/Chevy Chase.
• Mann Bracken vacated 74,500 SF at 702 King Farm Boulevard.
Prince George's
Gross Leasing
We estimate gross leasing activity will total 6.0 million SF during 2010 –
below the 15-year average of 6.8 million SF per annum.
The top deal of the 2nd quarter was NIH’s renewal of 160,000 SF at 6700
Rockledge Drive in North Bethesda. The most notable non-renewal deal
during this period was the FDA’s lease of 93,000 SF at 12420 Parklawn
Drive in Rockville.
Also notable, was the Department of Health and Human Services’ lease of
73,000 SF at 7501 Wisconsin Avenue in Bethesda/Chevy Chase. This lease
2nd quarter 2010
Q2: Transwestern Outlook
2010 SUBURBAN MARYLAND
OFFICE LEASING ACTIVITY BY SECTOR was spurred by the new health care law, as the Federal government plans
Suburban Maryland | 2005 - 2009 to hire approximately 300 people to help steer the new law, according to
the Washington Business Journal. This will no doubt help stabilize the
vacancy rate in Bethesda/Chevy Chase, as Chevy Chase Bank/Capital
One vacated space during the 1st quarter and CoStar plans to relocate its
headquarters to The District during the 3rd quarter of 2010.
There are two large requirements from GSA that are out for solicitation.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has a need of a total of 1.2
million SF and Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has
a need for over 900,000 SF. Although Arlington County in Northern
Virginia is vying for the DHS deal with Montgomery and Prince George’s
Counties, the HHS deal must remain in Montgomery or Prince George’s
Counties. GSA plans to make a decision on the award by year-end 2010.
DIRECT OFFICE VACANCY RATE VACANCY RATES AND VACANT SPACE (ALL CLASSES)
Suburban Maryland | 1997 Through Mid-Year 2010 Suburban Maryland | June 2009 vs. June 2010
The overall Class A vacancy rate is 16.3% at June 2010, down slightly
from 16.5% at March 2010, but up from 15.1% one year ago. Suburban
Maryland’s direct Class A vacancy rate is 14.3%.
With slow market conditions, for the next 24 months new development
projects would appear warranted only for very special projects at superior
locations or with a sizable pre-lease in place.
There were no notable deliveries during the 1st half of 2010. During 2009,
2.2 million SF delivered to the market at 25% leased.
We expect vacancy to edge down over the next two years, as Suburban
Maryland has already experienced a swift rise in vacancy due to projects
delivering to market from 2007-2009 and the current pipeline has
declined with pre-leasing rising over the past year. Vacancy will decline
only modestly over the next two years, as we expect demand to pick up
slowly during 2010 as the economy recovers and more jobs are added to
the Suburban Maryland market. However, we expect greater leasing to
occur during 2011, as pent-up demand emerges to the market.
Investment Sales The amount of tenants seeking space will increase over the next
12 months as the economy improves and more blocks of space
There were two notable investment sales during the 2nd are removed from the market. However, we believe government
quarter of 2010, compared to three sales during the 1st quarter. tenants will drive the market during the remainder of the year and
Sales volume totaled $190 million during the 1st half of 2010, into 2011 – particularly within the National Institutes of Health,
compared to $201 million during 2009. Food & Drug Administration, and Health & Human Services.
PS Business Parks, in an all-cash deal, purchased 9201 Corporate Although we expect vacancy to decline modestly over the next two
Boulevard in North Rockville for $60 million ($176/SF) during years to 14.0%, vacancy will remain elevated at June 2012 when
the 2nd quarter. The property last sold in 2005 for $79 million compared to the cyclical low of 8.7% during 2005.
($232/SF).
NET ABSORPTION OF Flex/Industrial Space Prince George’s County experienced healthy net absorption during the
Suburban Maryland | First Half 2010 | Square Feet 1st half of 2010, as tenants inked a handful of deals. Notably, U.S. Electrical
Submarket All Space Built 1988-10 Services leased 120,000 SF at 6500 Sheriff Road and Vocus leased 93,000 SF at
Prince George's County 143,000 (17,000) 12051 Indian Creek Court – both flex/warehouse space.
Montgomery County (90,000) (33,000)
Frederick County (37,000) (17,000) Available sublease space decreased 10,000 SF during the past six months,
Suburban MD Total: 16,000 (66,000) after decreasing 178,000 SF during 2009. Sublease space is 1.0% of the
standing inventory.
Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; June 2010.
Net absorption of newer space (built after 1987) totaled negative 66,000
SF in Suburban Maryland during the 1st half of 2010, compared to
negative 366,000 SF during 2009.
gross leasing activity
Suburban Maryland | 2000 - 2010 Gross Leasing Activity
We estimate gross leasing activity will total 4.0 million SF in 2010, below
the 10-year average of 4.5 million SF per annum. The most notable new deal
during the past six months was U.S. Electrical Services’ lease of 120,000 SF
of flex/warehouse space at 6500 Sheriff Road in Prince George’s County.
Also notable was Vocus Inc. leasing 93,000 SF of flex/warehouse space at
12051 Indian Creek Court in Prince George’s County. Healthy leasing
activity kept flex/warehouse net absorption positive during the past six
months.
There are 315 buildings with contiguous blocks of available space over
10,000 SF, up from 277 one year ago. Prince George’s County is home to
49% of these blocks. The largest block is 500,000 SF of flex/warehouse
space located at 6304 Sheriff Road (Building A) in Landover.
The direct vacancy rate is 11.5% at June 2010, unchanged from six months
prior, but is up from 11.3% one year ago.
Three projects started construction during the past six months, compared
to only one new notable project during 2009. St. John Properties broke
ground on two flex/R&D buildings, totaling 78,000 SF, at 5001 and 5021
Howerton Way in Prince George’s County.
Rents
Average asking rents
Suburban Maryland | Flex/Industrial Space
NNN/SF/Annum Flex/industrial asking rents declined 2.4% during the 1st half of 2010,
after declining 5.9% during 2009. All product types experienced rent
Year-End Mid-Year % declines during the 1st half of 2010, with bulk warehouse experiencing
Product Type 2009 2010 Change the greatest decline at 4.0%, as this product type experienced the weakest
Bulk Warehouse $6.25 $6.00 -4.0% absorption.
Flex/Warehouse $6.55 $6.40 -2.3%
Flex/R&D $11.85 $11.60 -2.1% Suburban Maryland rents should decline by 3.5% to 5.5% during 2010.
Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; June 2010.
Although we project vacancy to edge down 60 basis points over the
next year, vacancy remains elevated. We expect slow market conditions
to hamper rent growth, as the national economy recovers from the
recession.
Land Sales
WASHINGTON, dc
1667 K Street, NW
Suite 300
Washington, DC 20006
202.775.7000
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
8614 Westwood Center Drive
Suite 800
Vienna, VA 22182
703.821.0040
BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON CORRIDOR
6700 Alexander Bell Drive
Suite 350
Columbia, MD 21046
301.621.8800
www.transwestern.net
DELTA aSSOCIATES
500 Montgomery Street
Suite 600
Alexandria, VA 22314
703.836.5700
www.DeltaAssociates.com