CHANGE IN TREND IN ENERGY

CONSUMPTION OVER THE YEARS

CHANGE IS INEVITABLE

Submitted in partial fulfilment of

the degree of MBA in Oil and Gas management
University of Petroleum and Energy Studies
For the Course of
Quantitative Methods

Submitted to
Dr. Ratna Banerjee
UPES

Submitted by Group 4
Debraj Chakraborty R020217026
Aneeta Kaushik R020217013
Agrim Goel R020217003
Aryan Akshya R020217019
Akanksha Chandrakar R020217005
Contents
Topics Page No-
1. Abstract. -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2

2. Introduction. ------------------------------------------------------------- 4

3. Survey form.--------------------------------------------------------------- 6

4. Statistical analysis--------------- ----------------------------------------- 7

5. Correlation and regression analysis------------------------------------- 11

6. Future prediction.--------------------------------------------------------- 15

7. Reasons for change in trends ------------------------------------------- 16

8. Conclusion--------------- ------------------------------------------------- 18

9. Exhibits. ------------------------------------------------------------------ 19

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

Abstract

The purpose of the project is to identify and analyze the factors and reasons due to
which there is change in trend in energy consumption with respect to Indian
prospective.

Primary objective is to analyze the data and use the concepts of statistics to identify the
change in trend and utilization of energy reserves in India. It’s very important to note
that there has been a slight difference in energy consumption since we became
independent and with growing population we need more energy to fulfil demand and to
pave our paths to development. Being a developing nation India has a slightly different
prospective when it comes to energy usage. Thus we aim to observe the change and form
a future prospective

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

The above chart shows different types of energy sources that are consumed in India and
the next graph shows different sectors utilizing the surplus energy. Both these factors a
very important to be analyzed.

We also focus on the factors that led to the change in the trend of energy consumption.
Its very important to notice various factors gradually changing energy scenarios like
geopolitical issues etc. We would also focus on external factors leading to the change for
example recently india was a part of paris climate summit which eventualy led few
changes in energy policies of India. Such factors are important to analyze.

Eventually our aim is to predict the future energy comsupton for India and device a
solution to enhance sustainability and growth.

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

Introduction

We have all heard story of a man rather a caveman rubbing stones and accidently
starting the first fire in human history. We say it’s one of the turning points in human
evolution, being MBA students we say he was the first person to create a demand for
energy. Although fire has been evolved too. We don’t need stones to create fire but in-
fact has devolved resources to do so. Mother Nature has provided us with enough
resources to meet our energy needs; but to what extent. The scenario is changing day-
by-day we have consuming non-renewables at an extent which has started to push these
resources to decline. How this happened I mean it has been only about 170 years oil was
found and almost more than 500 years coal was found but human history consist of
more than 20,000 years. We can say there has been a variable shift in demand from
wood to coal to oil to gas to renewables to what not.

From the inception of time man has always thrived for power and control. Nowadays
power is with the hands men who control energy which has evolved into a basic right.
We cannot imagine an hour without electricity, a day without a vehicle etc. energy has
become so important that it’s shaping countries GDP too. The basic definition of energy
is the potential to do work or the extent to which a system can perform. This energy can
be derived from various resources we generally divide them into 2 types;

1. Renewables.
2. Non-renewables.

Although energy is a very wide topic but we mainly focus on change in trend in energy
consumption in India over the years and to make an analysis on future changes. To give
an example after India got its independence major population of the country was
depended on wood for the purpose of cooking food. Later with help of Indian PSU’s
Govt was able to change this into a LPG dominated scenario. Even recently the current
govt have emphasized on the use of LPG as the basic fuel and tried to eliminate the use
of wood completely. This how demand is shifted by various factors involved and this 4
would change again as we are in an era which is driving the need for research in the field
of renewable sources of energy. To study such shift we took a survey of 200 students.

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

Why we took students as our subject because of reason that future will be decide by
students only. The survey and its analysis is in the following pages to come.

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

 Survey

Please tick your answer

1. Do you know about renewable energy resources?

Yes No

2. How often do you use induction at your home?

Very often Sometimes Never

3. Which type of vehicle do you use?

Petrol/diesel CNG

4. Do you think electric vehicles/cars would help in controlling pollution?

Yes No

5. Do you have solar heaters or panels at home?

Yes No

6. If not would you consider installing solar panels or solar heaters at your home?

Yes No

7. Do you think in next 30-40 years India could fulfill much of its energy demands from
renewables?

Yes No

Name:- ___________________________ 6
Age :- ___________________________

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

Statistical analysis

On the basis of the questionnaire prepared we have tried to analyze the current scenario
and tried to derive a path for future.

From the above recorded data we have formed certain pie-charts that will help us
understand the data effectively.

Do you know about renewable How often do you

energy resources?
use induction at your
yes no
home?

16% 29%
52%
19%
84%

Very often Sometimes never

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

Which type of vehicle do you Do you think EV would help
use? in controlling pollution ?
Petrol/diesel CNG YES NO

34% 21%

66%
79%

Do you have solar heaters or If not would you consider

panels at home installing solar panels or solar
heaters at you home?
Yes NO
Yes No

13%
39%

87% 61%

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

 30-40 years india could fulfill much of All the above data only tells us
its energy demand from renewables? how these people think and how
they interpret certain information.
Yes No
It does not tell us about any
prediction or analysis
33%
67%

For analysis of the data we have used various statistical approaches to analyze this data
using MS-Excel with following assumption.

A graphical representation of the data

200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

We can see that various values
such as mean , kurtosis etc.
can be calculated with the help
of excel but our purpose here is
to identify if there will be any
change in trend with respect to
energy demand or not for that
purpose we will do a
correlation and regression
analysis of the data

10

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

Correlation and Regression analysis of the data.

For this analysis we have taken 2 pairs of question each and analyzed them differently

First pair of question was.

1. Which type of vehicle do you use?

Petrol/diesel CNG

2. Do you think electric vehicles/cars would help in controlling pollution?

Yes No

To be able to do that we coded the 200 response into “0” and “1” respectively (EXHIBIT-
1). For first question “0” for petrol/diesel and 1 for CNG. Similarly for second question
“0” for yes and “1” for no.

After the analysis following is the outcome.

Regression Statistics Outcome

Multiple R 0.748830241
R Square 0.560746731
Adjusted R Square 0.55852828
Standard Error 0.309414361
Observations 200

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
11
Regression 1 24.19903 24.19902516 252.765 3.20462E-37
Residual 198 18.95597 0.095737247
Total 199 43.155

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Intercept 0.13836478 0.024538155 5.638760541 5.8473E-08 0.089975109 0.18675445
X Variable1 0.86163522 0.054195718 15.89858484 3.2046E-37 0.754760317 0.968510123

From the above tables we will derive certain values

Coefficient of correlation

r = 0.748830241

And regression equation

𝑎 + 𝑏𝑥 => 0.13836478 + 0.86163522x

Then we took the 2nd pair of questions.

1. Do you have solar heaters or panels at home?

Yes No

2. If not would you consider installing solar panels or solar heaters at your home?

Yes No

Outcome

Regression Statistics Outcomes

Multiple R 0.312573127
R Square 0.09770196
Adjusted R Square 0.093144899
Standard Error 0.326236349
Observations 200

12

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 2.281829268 2.281829268 21.4396875 6.60086E-06
Residual 198 21.07317073 0.106430155
Total 199 23.355

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

4.0801E-
Intercept 0.780487805 0.029415741 26.53299832 67 0.72247945 0.83849616
X 6.6009E-
Variable1 0.219512195 0.047407759 4.630301016 06 0.126023266 0.313001125

Coefficient of correlation

r = 0.312573127

And regression equation

𝑎 + 𝑏𝑥 => 0.780487805 + 0.219512195x

Above 2 pairs of question were chosen because of the fact that 2 nd question of the pair is
actually an outcome. Like 133 people own a Petrol/diesel equipped car and 159 think
that Electric Vehicle can reduce or help in control pollution thus we may say these 133
people in future may also highly likely to purchase electrical vehicle thus we may say
there will be a change in trend for vehicles thus suggesting a change in energy demand
also. Similarly for the 2nd pair of question people who don’t have solar panels installed
are most likely to install them in future and thus shifting the energy demand to
renewable energy resources.

Terms and their explanation

R square: - It tells us good is the fit. In this case its 0.5 which means 50% variability in y
from x.
13
Multiple R: - it is the correlation coefficient between Y and X. this is actually given as
root over R^2.

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

ANNOVA: - it is very important when it comes to regression. It basically tells us how the
regression is doing.

Degree of freedom (df): - number of independent variable.

Sum of square (ss): - gives you the sum of square of regression

Mean sum of square (MS): - gives you the mean sum of square of regression

F: - F statistic value

Significance F: - significant value of F. its low value tells us that regression analysis is
good.

Coefficient: - Gives you the account balance by the addition of intercept and no. of ATM
transactions.

P value: - It should be less. Lesser value tells that intercept is correct.

Lower 95% and upper 95%:- it gives the confidence of interval.

14

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

Future predictions

From the analysis we may predict that people do fall for changing trends and sometimes
it’s political as well. India recently signed Paris climate agreement which would lay
down the pathway for future energy consumption in India.

Key essentials of Paris agreement.

India is in charge of 6% of the worldwide CO2 emanations following China, which

represents 28%, the United States for 16% and the European Union 10%. As far
according to capita CO2 discharges, 10 different nations are in front of India.

As a component of the underlying duties regarding the understanding, India

additionally plans to lessen its carbon emanation power - discharge per unit of
GDP - by 33-35% from 2005 levels more than 15 years. It goes for creating 40% of
its introduced power limit by 2030 from non-renewable energy sources.

This would mean India should move essentially from coal-based power age to
sustainable power sources. It should deliver 100 giga watt from solar energy, 60
gigawatt from wind, 10 gigawatt from biomass and 5 gigawatt from little
hydropower by 2022.

Another dedication under the bargain expects India to expand its woodland cover
by five million hectares alongside a change in the nature of green front of an
equivalent measure by 2030.

15

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

Reasons for Change in trend

India is propelled to make solid atmosphere move on account of the gigantic needs at
home. Here are five key reasons India is spurred to make a move on environmental
change:

1. Increasing Energy Access. Giving "reasonable 24x7 powers" to every single

Indian family by 2017 is a national need for India. With 300 million individuals -
about the measure of the whole U.S. contamination - without access to present
day power, growing vitality get to is a critical objective of the legislature.
Achieving those populaces and diminishing the vitality shortfall through clean
vitality, including sun powered, wind and vitality effectiveness, are significant
open doors for India. On the primary day of the Paris arrangements, India
reported another International Solar Alliance (ISA) - welcoming more than 120
solar based rich nations to drive clean vitality and ensure the atmosphere. The
ISA is a piece of India's push to propel a low-carbon economy; including local
focuses to introduce 100 GW of sun powered vitality by 2022.

2. Protecting Vulnerable Communities- Disturbing air contamination levels,

destroying flooding in Chennai and destructive warmth waves have tormented
groups crosswise over India in 2015, clarifying that the nation is as of now being
hit hard by environmental change. The rising consciousness of the crippling
brown haze obfuscating India's urban areas has inspired Delhi's pioneers to make
more prominent move to screen and alleviate its causes. Finding less carbon
escalated routes forward, including moving to clean vitality sources that
contaminate not as much as non-renewable energy sources, is critical to
16
enhancing India's air, condition and water, and in addition fighting the
worldwide issue of environmental change. In the meantime, vigorous versatility

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

 designs and early cautioning frameworks, for example, the Heat Action Plan
guided in 2013 in the city of Ahmadabad, Gujarat, can enable groups to get ready
for extraordinary climate occasions and atmosphere related debacles.

3. Growing Liveable Cities- With soaring urbanization, developing more decent

Indian urban areas is basic. About 260 million individuals are anticipated to
move to urban areas by 2030 and most frameworks - streets, structures, and
transportation frameworks - that go with urbanization presently can't seem to be
fabricated. The Government of India propelled a "100 Smart Cities" program in
June 2015 to apply IT-based answers for economical urban advancement.

4. Jobs, Jobs, Jobs- With a blasting populace and youthful work constrain
searching for occupations, becoming sun oriented and wind control showcases
additionally speaks to a genuinely necessary arrangement. On the off chance that
India accomplishes its sun powered focus of 100 GW by 2022, upwards of 1
million employments could be made. Another "Aptitude India" Mission means to
prepare 400 million individuals by 2020, a promising system to give the
prepared labor expected to introduce India's army of clean vitality ventures in
progress.

5. Bolstering Energy Security-In 2015, India imported 80 percent of its raw

petroleum necessity and huge sums in non-renewable energy sources. With India
confronting rising fuel costs, dangers to vitality security, and a regularly
expanding interest for vitality, the objective of 175 GW of home-grown
sustainable power source is fundamental to enhance India's vitality challenges
and invigorate vitality security.
17

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

Conclusion

We hope to see a major change in demand in upcoming years most of the people do
agree that by 2030 India will fulfill most of its energy demand from renewable sources
of energy. Major part of this demand change would be due to policy changes incurred by
India and also the idea of sustainable development. We hope to see India’s GDP also
getting benefitted by this demand change.

As India's kin look for help from overwhelmed urban communities, gagging air
contamination and excruciating warmth waves, its agents in Paris are endeavoring to
secure an atmosphere understanding that controls environmental change and puts the
world on a more secure direction. As the Indian government has clarified, they are
committed to following up on environmental change and turning into a spotless vitality
pioneer since it is to India's greatest advantage to flourish.

18

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

Exhibit 1

Coded interpretation of survey data.

If not
would you
consider 30-40 years
Do you Do you installing india could
know How often think EV Do you solar fulfill much
about do you use Which would help have solar panels or of its energy
renewable induction type of in heaters or solar demand
energy at your vehicle do controlling panels at heaters at from
resources? home? you use? pollution home you home? renewables?
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
20
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
21
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 0 0
0 2 0 0 1 1 0
0 2 0 0 1 1 0
0 2 0 0 1 1 0
0 2 0 0 1 1 0
0 2 0 0 1 1 0
0 2 0 0 1 1 0
0 2 0 0 1 1 0
0 2 0 0 1 1 0
0 2 0 0 1 1 0
0 2 0 0 1 1 0
0 2 0 0 1 1 0
0 2 0 0 1 1 1
0 2 0 0 1 1 1
0 2 0 0 1 1 1
0 2 1 0 1 1 1
0 2 1 0 1 1 1
0 2 1 0 1 1 1
0 2 1 0 1 1 1
0 2 1 0 1 1 1
0 2 1 0 1 1 1
0 2 1 0 1 1 1
0 2 1 0 1 1 1
0 2 1 0 1 1 1
0 2 1 0 1 1 1
0 2 1 0 1 1 1
0 2 1 0 1 1 1
22
0 2 1 0 1 1 1
0 2 1 0 1 1 1
0 2 1 0 1 1 1

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

0 2 1 0 1 1 1
0 2 1 0 1 1 1
0 2 1 0 1 1 1
0 2 1 0 1 1 1
0 2 1 0 1 1 1
0 2 1 0 1 1 1
0 2 1 0 1 1 1
0 2 1 1 1 1 1
0 2 1 1 1 1 1
0 2 1 1 1 1 1
0 2 1 1 1 1 1
0 2 1 1 1 1 1
0 2 1 1 1 1 1
0 2 1 1 1 1 1
0 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
23
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
0 2 1 1 1 1 1
0 2 1 1 1 1 1

24

Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |

Bibliography

www.bpstats.com

www.youtube.com

www.energyoutlook.com

http://www.mospi.gov.in/statistical-year-book-india/2017

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Change in trend in energy consumption over the years |