Month Monthly Sales

Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13 Actual Sales
Apr-13 Year
Month
May-13 2013 2014
Jun-13 January 1790290
Jul-13 3054170 February 3481990
Aug-13 2452290 March 4384980
Sep-13 833160 April 4631650
Oct-13 2497690 May 4883260
Nov-13 1236550 June 5587310
Dec-13 2117540 July 3054170 20807900
Jan-14 1790290 August 2452290 4953944
Feb-14 3481990 September 833160 7920766
Mar-14 4384980 October 2497690 8098074
Apr-14 4631650 November 1236550 5651363
May-14 4883260 December 2117540 8866198
Jun-14 5587310
Jul-14 20807900
Aug-14 4953944
Sep-14 7920766
Oct-14 8098074
Nov-14 5651363
Dec-14 8866198
Jan-15 4412739
Feb-15 2351934
Mar-15 6063970
Apr-15 7491518
May-15 8579014
Jun-15 14961309
Jul-15 35515042
Aug-15 9215456
Sep-15 15826092
Oct-15 9168621
Nov-15 8858105
Dec-15 15385103
Jan-16 9202318
Feb-16 10391970
Mar-16 11603831
Apr-16 13931570
May-16 13000314
Jun-16 43960083
Jul-16 24430419
Aug-16 14158469
Sep-16 19774524
Oct-16 15968109
Nov-16 15014633
Dec-16 21033111
Actual Sales
Year
2015 2016
4412739 9202318
2351934 10391970
6063970 11603831
7491518 13931570
8579014 13000314
14961309 43960083
35515042 24430419
9215456 14158469
15826092 19774524
9168621 15968109
8858105 15014633
15385103 21033111
 Evaluation of Associative Forecasting Techniques

Associative Techniques Test Measures 2015

MAD 5769139.61859903
Simple Linear Regression MSE 81977530300424.80
MAPE 31.73%
MAD 3331413.875
Multiple Regression MSE 55819826799313.90
MAPE 12.22%
5.18E+13
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.962564
R Square 0.926529
Adjusted R 0.831017
Standard E 2996873
Observatio 24

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 13 1.13E+15 8.71E+13 9.700617 0.000522
Residual 10 8.98E+13 8.98E+12
Total 23 1.22E+15

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
Intercept 5029253 2803318 1.794036
Time 394244.3 101955.7 3.86682
Eid Sales 3417390 2996873 1.140318
January -4687449 3199850 -1.4649
February -5266246 3165556 -1.66361
March -3352977 3134205 -1.0698
April -2910112 3105886 -0.93697
May -2634803 3080682 -0.85527
June 514124.8 3058671 0.168088
July 14589652 4268767 3.417767
August -3463973 3024495 -1.14531
September -778183 3364538 -0.23129
October -4412509 3356805 -1.3145
November -4476672 2998607 -1.49292
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
0.103048 -1216929 11275436 -1216929 11275435.629183
0.003125 167072.8 621415.7 167072.8 621415.74846908
0.280729 -3260060 10094839 -3260060 10094839.339488
0.173669 -1.2E+07 2442261 -1.2E+07 2442261.421515
0.127167 -1.2E+07 1787053 -1.2E+07 1787053.1794759
0.309851 -1E+07 3630467 -1E+07 3630467.3248571
0.370852 -9830457 4010233 -9830457 4010232.9178764
0.412426 -9498991 4229384 -9498991 4229384.2596253
0.869865 -6301019 7329268 -6301019 7329268.4540725
0.006572 5078246 24101058 5078246 24101058.478864
0.278752 -1E+07 3275021 -1E+07 3275021.1236643
0.821753 -8274841 6718475 -8274841 6718474.6994798
0.218029 -1.2E+07 3066919 -1.2E+07 3066919.1491697
0.166321 -1.1E+07 2204641 -1.1E+07 2204640.7786221
 Evaluation of Averaging Techniques

Averaging Techniques MAD MSE MAPE

Three-Period Moving Average (From Jan-14

to Dec-16 Cumulatively)
5148863.81481 73297427599013.70 43.18%

Six-Period Moving Average (From Jan-14 to

Dec-16 Cumulatively)
4793810.97222 73121343223831.90 40.20%
Weighted Moving Average (From Jan-14 to
Dec-16 Cumulatively)
5173609.49028 73329223965354.60 44.48%
Weighted Moving Average (with
Consideration of Eid Sales) (From Jan-14 to
Dec-16 Cumulatively) 4793284.85556 51772142124998.50 43.95%
Exponential Smoothing (Only from Jan 16
to Dec 16) 5696478.8566 109937797469110.00 27.14%
5.17721E+13

4793284.856
 Eid Sales
Period Month January February March April May June July
Jan-14 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-14 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Mar-14 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Apr-14 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
May-14 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Jun-14 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Jul-14 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Aug-14 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-14 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-14 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-14 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-14 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-15 13 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-15 14 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Mar-15 15 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Apr-15 16 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
May-15 17 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Jun-15 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Jul-15 19 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Aug-15 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-15 21 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-15 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-15 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-15 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-16 25 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-16 26 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Mar-16 27 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Apr-16 28 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
May-16 29 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Jun-16 30 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Jul-16 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Aug-16 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-16 33 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-16 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-16 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-16 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.962564
R Square 0.926529
Adjusted R 0.831017
Standard E 2996873
Observatio 24

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 13 1.13E+15 8.71E+13
Residual 10 8.98E+13 8.98E+12
Total 23 1.22E+15

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
Intercept 5029253 2803318 1.794036
Time 394244.3 101955.7 3.86682
Eid Sales 3240082 2996873 1.081154
January -4687449 3199850 -1.4649
February -5266246 3165556 -1.66361
March -3352977 3134205 -1.0698
April -2910112 3105886 -0.93697
May -2634803 3080682 -0.85527
June 514124.7 3058671 0.168088
July 14766960 4268767 3.459303
August -3463973 3024495 -1.14531
September -600875 3364538 -0.17859
October -4412509 3356805 -1.3145
November -4476672 2998607 -1.49292
August September October NovemberSales
0 0 0 0 1790290
0 0 0 0 3481990
0 0 0 0 4384980
0 0 0 0 4631650
0 0 0 0 4883260
0 0 0 0 5587310
0 0 0 0 20807900
1 0 0 0 4953944
0 1 0 0 7920766
0 0 1 0 8098074
0 0 0 1 5651363
0 0 0 0 8866198
0 0 0 0 4412739
0 0 0 0 2351934
0 0 0 0 6063970
0 0 0 0 7491518
0 0 0 0 8579014
0 0 0 0 14961309
0 0 0 0 35515042
1 0 0 0 9215456
0 1 0 0 15826092
0 0 1 0 9168621
0 0 0 1 8858105
0 0 0 0 15385103 Forecast Absolute Error Squared Error
0 0 0 0 9202318 10197912 995593.75 991206915039.066
0 0 0 0 10391970 10013359 378610.75 143346100015.564
0 0 0 0 11603831 12320872 717041.25 514148154201.56
0 0 0 0 13931570 13157981 773588.75 598439554126.563
0 0 0 0 13000314 13827534 827220.25 684293342010.063
0 0 0 0 43960083 20610788 23349294.75 545189565322378
0 0 0 0 24430419 32017787 7587367.75 57568149373740.2
1 0 0 0 14158469 14181097 22628.25 512037698.0625
0 1 0 0 19774524 20678521 903997 817210576008.987
0 0 1 0 15968109 14021050 1947059 3791038749480.97
0 0 0 1 15014633 14351131 663501.75 440234572253.063
0 0 0 0 21033111 19222048 1811063.25 3279950095500.56
MAD 3331413.875 55819826799313.9
 F Significance F
9.700617 0.000521742

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
0.103048 -1216929.129 11275436 -1216929 11275436
0.003125 167072.8349 621415.7 167072.8 621415.7
0.305012 -3437368.339 9917531 -3437368 9917531
0.173669 -11817159 2442261 -1.2E+07 2442261
0.127167 -12319544.35 1787053 -1.2E+07 1787053
0.309851 -10336421.07 3630467 -1E+07 3630467
0.370852 -9830457.251 4010233 -9830457 4010233
0.412426 -9498991.176 4229384 -9498991 4229384
0.869865 -6301018.954 7329268 -6301019 7329268
0.00613 5255554.438 24278366 5255554 24278366
0.278752 -10202967.79 3275021 -1E+07 3275021
0.861825 -8097533.449 6895783 -8097533 6895783
0.218029 -11891937.48 3066919 -1.2E+07 3066919
0.166321 -11157985.2 2204641 -1.1E+07 2204641
Error Percentage
10.82%
3.64%
6.18%
5.55%
6.36%
53.11%
31.06%
0.16%
4.57%
12.19%
4.42%
8.61%
12.22363%
Month Actual Forecast
Jan-16 9202318 10197912
Feb-16 10391970 10013359
Mar-16 11603831 12320872
Apr-16 13931570 13157981
May-16 13000314 13827534
Jun-16 43960083 20610788
Jul-16 24430419 32017787
Aug-16 14158469 14181097 Multi ple Regression Actual
Sep-16 19774524 20678521
50000000
Oct-16 15968109 14021050
45000000
Nov-16 15014633 14351131
40000000
Dec-16 21033111 19222048
35000000
30000000
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul -16
Actual Foreca
e Regression Actual vs. Forecast

Mar-16 May-16 Jul -16 Sep-16 Nov-16

Actual Foreca st
Month Period Sales
Jan-14 1 1790290
Feb-14 2 3481990
Mar-14 3 4384980
Apr-14 4 4631650
May-14 5 4883260
Jun-14 6 5587310
Jul-14 7 20807900
Aug-14 8 4953944
Sep-14 9 7920766
Oct-14 10 8098074
Nov-14 11 5651363
Dec-14 12 8866198
Jan-15 13 4412739
Feb-15 14 2351934
Mar-15 15 6063970
Apr-15 16 7491518 3133301.22101449
May-15 17 8579014 478957.995652174
Jun-15 18 14961309
Jul-15 19 35515042
Aug-15 20 9215456
Sep-15 21 15826092
Oct-15 22 9168621
Nov-15 23 8858105
Dec-15 24 15385103 Forecast Absolute Error Squared Error
Jan-16 25 9202318 15107251 5904933.11231884 34868235060959.5
Feb-16 26 10391970 15586209 5194239.10797102 26980119910775.5
Mar-16 27 11603831 16065167 4461336.10362319 19903519829491.7
Apr-16 28 13931570 16544125 2612555.09927536 6825444146749.7
May-16 29 13000314 17023083 4022769.09492753 16182671191104.1
Jun-16 30 43960083 17502041 26458041.9094203 700027981680640
Jul-16 31 24430419 17980999 6449419.91376812 41595017224108.7
Aug-16 32 14158469 18459957 4301488.08188406 18502799718590.6
Sep-16 33 19774524 18938915 835608.922463767 698242271301.058
Oct-16 34 15968109 19417873 3449764.07318841 11900872160661.5
Nov-16 35 15014633 19896831 4882198.06884058 23835857983390.7
Dec-16 36 21033111 20375789 657321.935507249 432072126898.996
MAD/MSE
/MAPE 5769139.61859903 81977530300424.8

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.464554
R Square 0.21581
Adjusted R Square 0.180165
Standard Error 6600996
Observations 24

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 2.64E+14 2.638E+14 6.0544371437 0.0221927144
Residual 22 9.59E+14 4.357E+13
Total 23 1.22E+15

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%
Intercept 3133301 2781333 1.1265467 0.2720728673 -2634829.9930815
Period 478958 194652.7 2.4605766 0.0221927144 75272.9029677279
 Scatterplot and Regression Equation
40000000

35000000

30000000

25000000

20000000

15000000
f(x) = 478957.995652174x + 3133301.22101449
10000000 R² = 0.2158103231

5000000

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Error Percentage
64.17%
49.98%
38.45%
18.75%
30.94%
60.19%
26.40%
30.38%
4.23%
21.60%
32.52%
3.13% y =x + 3E+06

31.727706254470100% R² = 0.2158
y= 478957.995652174*x+3133301.22101449
 Upper 95% Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
8901432.43511048 -2634830 8901432
882643.08833662 75272.9 882643.1
Month Actual Forecast
Jan-16 9202318 15107251
Feb-16 10391970 15586209
Mar-16 11603831 16065167
Apr-16 13931570 16544125
May-16 13000314 17023083 Simple Linear Regression
Jun-16 43960083 17502041
Actual vs. Forecast
Jul-16 24430419 17980999
Aug-16 14158469 18459957 50000000
45000000
Sep-16 19774524 18938915
40000000
Oct-16 15968109 19417873
35000000
Nov-16 15014633 19896831
30000000
Dec-16 21033111 20375789
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
Jan-16 Ma r-16 May-16 Jul -16 Sep
Actual Foreca st
le Linear Regression
ctual vs. Forecast

6 May-16 Jul -16 Sep-16 Nov-16

Actual Foreca st
Month Monthly Sales Three-Period Moving Average Absolute Error Squared Error

Jul-13 3054170
Aug-13 2452290
Sep-13 833160
Oct-13 2497690
Nov-13 1236550
Dec-13 2117540
Jan-14 1790290 1950593 160303.33333 25697158677.78
Feb-14 3481990 1714793 1767196.6667 3122984058677.78
Mar-14 4384980 2463273 1921706.6667 3692956512711.11
Apr-14 4631650 3219087 1412563.3333 1995335170677.78
May-14 4883260 4166207 717053.33333 514165482844.45
Jun-14 5587310 4633297 954013.33333 910141440177.78
Jul-14 20807900 5034073 15773826.667 248813607710044.00
Aug-14 4953944 10426157 5472212.6667 29945111469227.10
Sep-14 7920766 10449718 2528952 6395598218304.00
Oct-14 8098074 11227537 3129462.6667 9793536582060.44
Nov-14 5651363 6990928 1339565 1794434389225.00
Dec-14 8866198 7223401 1642797 2698781983209.00
Jan-15 4412739 7538545 3125806 9770663149636.00
Feb-15 2351934 6310100 3958166 15667078083556.00
Mar-15 6063970 5210290 853679.66667 728768973280.11
Apr-15 7491518 4276214 3215303.6667 10338177668880.10
May-15 8579014 5302474 3276540 10735714371600.00
Jun-15 14961309 7378167 7583141.6667 57504037536736.10
Jul-15 35515042 10343947 25171095 633584023499025.00
Aug-15 9215456 19685122 10469665.667 109613899171779.00
Sep-15 15826092 19897269 4071177 16574482165329.00
Oct-15 9168621 20185530 11016909 121372283914281.00
Nov-15 8858105 11403390 2545284.6667 6478474034368.44
Dec-15 15385103 11284273 4100830.3333 16816809422786.80
Jan-16 9202318 11137276 1934958.3333 3744063751736.11
Feb-16 10391970 11148509 756538.66667 572350754161.78
Mar-16 11603831 11659797 55966 3132193156.00
Apr-16 13931570 10399373 3532197 12476415646809.00
May-16 13000314 11975790 1024523.6667 1049648743560.11
Jun-16 43960083 12845238 31114844.667 968133558630795.00
Jul-16 24430419 23630656 799763.33333 639621389344.44
Aug-16 14158469 27130272 12971803 168267673070809.00
Sep-16 19774524 27516324 7741799.6667 59935462078800.10
Oct-16 15968109 19454471 3486361.6667 12154717670802.80
 Nov-16 15014633 16633701 1619067.6667 2621380109245.44
Dec-16 21033111 16919089 4114022.3333 16925179759165.40

(From Jan-14 to Dec-16

Cumulatively)
MAD/MSE/MAPE 5148863.8148 73297427599013.70
Error
Percentage Six-Period Moving Average Absolute Error Squared Error Error Percentage

8.95% 2031900 241610 58375392100 13.50%

50.75% 1821253.33333333 1660736.66666667 2758046276011 47.70%
43.82% 1992870 2392110 5722190252100 54.55%
30.50% 2584840 2046810 4189431176100 44.19%
14.68% 2940500 1942760 3774316417600 39.78%
17.07% 3548285 2039025 4157622950625 36.49%
75.81% 4126580 16681320 278266436942400 80.17%
110.46% 7296181.66666667 2342237.66666667 5486077287152 47.28%
31.93% 7541507.33333333 379258.666666667 143837136242 4.79%
38.64% 8130805 32731 1071318361 0.40%
23.70% 8708542.33333333 3057179.33333333 9346345476160 54.10%
18.53% 8836559.5 29638.5 878440682 0.33%
70.84% 9383040.83333333 4970301.83333333 24703900314437 112.64%
168.29% 6650514 4298580 18477790016400 182.77%
14.08% 6216845.66666667 152875.666666667 23370969459 2.52%
42.92% 5907379.66666667 1584138.33333333 2509494259136 21.15%
38.19% 5806287 2772727 7688015016529 32.32%
50.69% 6294228.83333333 8667080.16666667 75118278615427 57.93%
70.87% 7310080.66666667 28204961.3333333 795519843814828 79.42%
113.61% 12493797.8333333 3278341.83333333 10747525176183 35.57%
25.72% 13637718.1666667 2188373.83333333 4788980034418 13.83%
120.16% 15264738.5 6096117.5 37162648573806 66.49%
28.73% 15544255.6666667 6686150.66666667 44704610737367 75.48%
26.65% 15590770.8333333 205667.833333334 42299257668 1.34%
21.03% 15661403.1666667 6459085.16666667 41719781190253 70.19%
7.28% 11275949.1666667 883979.166666666 781419167101 8.51%
0.48% 11472034.8333333 131796.166666666 17370229548 1.14%
25.35% 10768324.6666667 3163245.33333333 10006121038855 22.71%
7.88% 11562149.5 1438164.5 2068317129060 11.06%
70.78% 12252517.6666667 31707565.3333333 1005369699367600 72.13%
3.27% 17015014.3333333 7415404.66666667 54988226370422 30.35%
91.62% 19553031.1666667 5394562.16666667 29101300970031 38.10%
39.15% 20180781 406257 165044750049 2.05%
21.83% 21542563.1666667 5574454.16666667 31074539256267 34.91%
10.78% 21881986.3333333 6867353.33333333 47160541804845 45.74%
19.56% 22217706.1666667 1184595.16666667 1403265708890 5.63%

43.18% 4793811 73121343223831.9 40.20%

 Weighted
Moving
Weighted Absolute Error Average (with Absolute Squared Error
Moving Squared Error
Error Percentage Consideration Error
Average of Eid Sales
Month)

1825877 35587 1266434569 1.99% 1825877 35587 1266434569

1859781.5 1622208.5 2631560417472 46.59% 1859781.5 1622209 2631560417472
2629853.5 1755126.5 3080469031002 40.03% 2629853.5 1755127 3080469031002
3543285 1088365 1184538373225 23.50% 3543285 1088365 1184538373225
4113397.5 769862.5 592688268906 15.77% 4113397.5 769862.5 592688268906.3
4605488.5 981821.5 963973457862 17.57% 4605488.5 981821.5 963973457862.3
5147715.5 15660185 245241378574040 75.26% 4119566.5 16688334 2.78500475E+14
12996431.5 8042487.5 64681605187656 162.35% 12996431.5 8042488 64681605187656
9005369.5 1084603.5 1176364752212 13.69% 6167247 1753519 3074828883361
8878785 780711 609509665521 9.64% 8878785 780711 609509665521
8853110.1 3201747.1 10251184492358 56.65% 8853110.1 3201747 10251184492358
6533709.3 2332488.7 5440503535628 26.31% 6533709.3 2332489 5440503535628
7852727.45 3439988.5 11833520536133 77.96% 7852727.45 3439988 11833520536133
6080430.85 3728496.9 13901688760460 158.53% 6080430.85 3728497 13901688760460
4174217.75 1889752.3 3571163566380 31.16% 4174217.75 1889752 3571163566380
5168499.15 2323018.9 5396416577455 31.01% 5168499.15 2323019 5396416577455
6055815.5 2523198.5 6366530670402 29.41% 6055815.5 2523199 6366530670402
7307175.4 7654133.6 58585761166649 51.16% 7307175.4 7654134 58585761166649
11355532.7 24159509 583681889616787 68.03% 16180281.15 19334761 3.73832977E+14
23533852.2 14318396 205016468308335 155.37% 23533852.15 14318396 2.05016468E+14
16588586.3 762494.25 581397481283 4.82% 13087634.2 2738458 7499151122381
17040297.2 7871676.2 61963286197647 85.85% 17040297.2 7871676 61963286197647
13474656.1 4616551.1 21312544058911 52.12% 13474656.1 4616551 21312544058911
10016667.2 5368435.9 28820103475565 34.89% 10016667.15 5368436 28820103475565
12864980.1 3662662.1 13415093658776 39.80% 12864980.1 3662662 13415093658776
10693012.6 301042.6 90626647015 2.90% 10693012.6 301042.6 90626647014.76
10690140.5 913690.55 834830421159 7.87% 10690140.45 913690.6 834830421159.3
11318766 2612804 6826744742416 18.75% 11318766 2612804 6826744742416
12345770.1 654543.95 428427782482 5.03% 12345770.05 654544 428427782481.6
12762821.2 31197262 973269146937466 70.97% 24257718.1 19702365 3.88183183E+14
28480238.6 4049819.6 16401038792544 16.58% 28480238.6 4049820 16401038792544
26548434.4 12389965 153511241374201 87.51% 26548434.35 12389965 1.53511241E+14
21080883.1 1306359.1 1706574098153 6.61% 19513234.4 261289.6 68272255068.16
21487450.4 5519341.4 30463129489754 34.56% 21487450.4 5519341 30463129489754
17494497.8 2479864.8 6149729178293 16.52% 17494497.75 2479865 6149729178293
15881369.3 5151741.8 26540443058693 24.49% 15881369.25 5151742 26540443058693

5173609.5 73329223965355 44.48% 4793285 51772142124999

Error
Percentage

1.99%
46.59%
40.03%
23.50%
15.77%
17.57%
80.20%
162.35%
22.14%
9.64%
56.65%
26.31%
77.96%
158.53%
31.16%
31.01%
29.41%
51.16%
54.44%
155.37%
17.30%
85.85%
52.12%
34.89%
39.80%
2.90%
7.87%
18.75%
5.03%
44.82%
16.58%
87.51%
1.32%
34.56%
16.52%
24.49%

43.95%
Month Actual Forecast Forecast
Jan-14 1790290 1950593.333 2031900
Feb-14 3481990 1714793.333 1821253
Mar-14 4384980 2463273.333 1992870
Apr-14 4631650 3219086.667 2584840
May-14 4883260 4166206.667 2940500
Jun-14 5587310 4633296.667 3548285
Jul-14 20807900 5034073.333 4126580
Aug-14 4953944 10426156.67 7296182
Sep-14 7920766 10449718 7541507
Oct-14 8098074 11227536.67 8130805
Nov-14 5651363 6990928 8708542
Dec-14 8866198 7223401 8836560
Jan-15 4412739 7538545 9383041
Feb-15 2351934 6310100 6650514 Six-Period Movin
Mar-15 6063970 5210290.333 6216846 50000000
Apr-15 7491518 4276214.333 5907380 45000000
May-15 8579014 5302474 5806287 40000000
Jun-15 14961309 7378167.333 6294229 35000000
Jul-15 35515042 10343947 7310081 30000000
Aug-15 9215456 19685121.67 12493798 25000000
Sep-15 15826092 19897269 13637718 20000000
Oct-15 9168621 20185530 15264739 15000000
Nov-15 8858105 11403389.67 15544256 10000000
Dec-15 15385103 11284272.67 15590771 5000000
Jan-16 9202318 11137276.33 15661403 0
Feb-16 10391970 11148508.67 11275949 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15
Mar-16 11603831 11659797 11472035 Actual
Apr-16 13931570 10399373 10768325
May-16 13000314 11975790.33 11562150
Jun-16 43960083 12845238.33 12252518
Jul-16 24430419 23630655.67 17015014
Aug-16 14158469 27130272 19553031
Sep-16 19774524 27516323.67 20180781
Oct-16 15968109 19454470.67 21542563 Three-Period Moving Avera
Nov-16 15014633 16633700.67 21881986
50000000
Dec-16 21033111 16919088.67 22217706 45000000
40000000
35000000
30000000
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
Jan-14

Jan-15
Mar-14

May-14
Jun-14

Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14

Feb-15
Ma r-15

May-15
Jun-15

Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Ja n-16
Feb-14

Apr-14

Jul -14

Apr-15

Jul -15

Actual Foreca st
 0
5000000
10000000
15000000

Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul -14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Ma r-15
Actual

Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul -15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Foreca st

Nov-15
Dec-15
Ja n-16
 Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Ma r-15

Actual
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul -15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15

Actual

Foreca st
Nov-15
Dec-15
Ja n-16
Feb-16
Ma r-16

Period Moving Average

Apr-16

Forecast
May-16
Jun-16
Jul -16
Aug-16

Six-Period Moving Average

Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16

14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Ja n-16 May-16 Sep-16

 Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Ma r-15

Actual
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul -15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Foreca st

Nov-15
Dec-15
Ja n-16
Feb-16
Ma r-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul -16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Month Monthy Sales
Jan-14 1790290
Feb-14 3481990
Mar-14 4384980
Apr-14 4631650
May-14 4883260
Jun-14 5587310
Jul-14 20807900
Aug-14 4953944
Sep-14 7920766
Oct-14 8098074
Nov-14 5651363
Dec-14 8866198
Jan-15 4412739
Feb-15 2351934
Mar-15 6063970
Apr-15 7491518
May-15 8579014
Jun-15 14961309
Jul-15 35515042
Aug-15 9215456
Sep-15 15826092
Oct-15 9168621

Forecast for the

Nov-15 8858105 Previous period
Dec-15 15385103 11284272.6666667
Month Actual Forecast Absolute Error Squared Error Error Percentage
Jan-16 9202318 13334688 4132369.8333333 1.707648E+13 44.91%
Feb-16 10391970 11268502.9166667 876532.91666667 768309954000 8.43%
Mar-16 11603831 10830236.4583333 773594.54166667 598448514896 6.67%
Apr-16 13931570 11217033.7291667 2714536.2708333 7.368707E+12 19.48%
May-16 13000314 12574301.8645833 426012.13541667 181486339522 3.28%
Jun-16 43960083 12787307.9322917 31172775.067708 9.717419E+14 70.91%
Jul-16 24430419 28373695.4661458 3943276.4661458 1.554943E+13 16.14%
Aug-16 14158469 26402057.2330729 12243588.233073 1.499055E+14 86.48%
Sep-16 19774524 20280263.1165365 505739.11653646 255772053995 2.56%
Oct-16 15968109 20027393.5582682 4059284.5582682 1.647779E+13 25.42%
Nov-16 15014633 17997751.2791341 2983118.2791341 8.898995E+12 19.87%
Dec-16 21033111 16506192.1395671 4526918.8604329 2.049299E+13 21.52%
MAD/MSE/MAPE 5696478.8566013 1.099378E+14 27.14%
 Highest Value (Jan-14 to Dec 15) Lowest Value (Jan-14 to Dec-15)
35515042 1790290
19.8375916751
α 0.5

Exponenti al Smoothing
50000000
45000000
40000000
35000000
30000000
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
Ja n-16 Ma r-16 May-16 Jul -16 Sep-16 Nov-16
Actual Forecast
Month Actual Forecast Forecast
Jan-14 1790290 1825877 1825877
Feb-14 3481990 1859781.5 1859781.5
Mar-14 4384980 2629853.5 2629853.5
Apr-14 4631650 3543285 3543285
May-14 4883260 4113397.5 4113397.5
Jun-14 5587310 4605488.5 4605488.5
Jul-14 20807900 5147715.5 4119566.5
Aug-14 4953944 12996431.5 12996431.5
Sep-14 7920766 9005369.5 6167247
Oct-14 8098074 8878785 8878785
Nov-14 5651363 8853110.1 8853110.1
Dec-14 8866198 6533709.3 6533709.3
Jan-15 4412739 7852727.45 7852727.45
Feb-15 2351934 6080430.85 6080430.85 Weighted M
Mar-15 6063970 4174217.75 4174217.75
50000000
Apr-15 7491518 5168499.15 5168499.15
45000000
May-15 8579014 6055815.5 6055815.5 40000000
Jun-15 14961309 7307175.4 7307175.4 35000000
Jul-15 35515042 11355532.7 16180281.15 30000000
Aug-15 9215456 23533852.15 23533852.15 25000000
Sep-15 15826092 16588586.25 13087634.2 20000000
Oct-15 9168621 17040297.2 17040297.2 15000000
Nov-15 8858105 13474656.1 13474656.1 10000000
Dec-15 15385103 10016667.15 10016667.15 5000000
Jan-16 9202318 12864980.1 12864980.1 0
Ja n-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-1
Feb-16 10391970 10693012.6 10693012.6
Mar-16 11603831 10690140.45 10690140.45 Act

Apr-16 13931570 11318766 11318766

May-16 13000314 12345770.05 12345770.05
Jun-16 43960083 12762821.15 24257718.1
Jul-16 24430419 28480238.6 28480238.6 Wighted Moving Average (wi
Aug-16 14158469 26548434.35 26548434.35 50000000
Sep-16 19774524 21080883.1 19513234.4 45000000
Oct-16 15968109 21487450.4 21487450.4 40000000
Nov-16 15014633 17494497.75 17494497.75 35000000
Dec-16 21033111 15881369.25 15881369.25 30000000
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan
A
 Weighted Moving Average

14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16

Actua l Foreca st

Moving Average (with Consideration of Eid Sales Month

50000000
45000000
40000000
35000000
30000000
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16
Actual Forecast
 2014 2015 2016
Month Monthly Sales Month Monthly Sales Month Monthly Sales
Jan-14 1790290 Jan-15 4412739 Jan-16 9202318
Feb-14 3481990 Feb-15 2351934 Feb-16 10391970
Mar-14 4384980 Mar-15 6063970 Mar-16 11603831
Apr-14 4631650 Apr-15 7491518 Apr-16 13931570
May-14 4883260 May-15 8579014 May-16 13000314
Jun-14 5587310 Jun-15 14961309 Jun-16 43960083
Jul-14 20807900 Jul-15 35515042 Jul-16 24430419
Aug-14 4953944 Aug-15 9215456 Aug-16 14158469
Sep-14 7920766 Sep-15 15826092 Sep-16 19774524
Oct-14 8098074 Oct-15 9168621 Oct-16 15968109
Nov-14 5651363 Nov-15 8858105 Nov-16 15014633
Dec-14 8866198 Dec-15 15385103 Dec-16 21033111

Monthly Sales of 2014 Month

25000000 40000000

35000000
20000000
30000000

15000000 25000000

20000000
10000000
15000000

10000000
5000000
5000000
0 0
Ja n-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul -14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Ma r-15
 Monthly Sales of 2016
50000000
45000000
40000000
35000000
30000000
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul -16 Sep-16 Nov-16

Monthly Sales of 2015

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

0
Jan-15 Ma r-15 May-15 Jul -15 Sep-15 Nov-15
Month Sales of 2014 Sales of 2015 Sales of 2016
January 1790290 4412739 9202318
February 3481990 2351934 10391970
March 4384980 6063970 11603831
April 4631650 7491518 13931570
May 4883260 8579014 13000314
June 5587310 14961309 43960083
July 20807900 35515042 24430419
August 4953944 9215456 14158469 Monthly Sales (2014-
September 7920766 15826092 19774524 50000000
October 8098074 9168621 15968109 45000000
40000000
November 5651363 8858105 15014633
35000000
December 8866198 15385103 21033111 30000000
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
ar
y
ar
y ch ri l ay ne ly s
u ru ar Ap M Ju Ju gu
Ja
n b M Au
Fe

Sa l es of 2014 Sal es of 2015

nthly Sales (2014-2016)

ri l ay ne Ju
ly u st
be
r
b er be
r
be
r
Ap M Ju ug m to m
A te Oc ve c em
S ep N o
De

f 2014 Sal es of 2015 Sal es of 2016

Year Eid ul-Fitr Sales Eid ul-adha Sales Total Eid Sales Total sales Eid Sales percentage
2014 20807900 7920766 28728666 81057725 35.44%
2015 35515042 15826092 51341134 137828903 37.25%
2016 43960083 19774524 63734607 212469351 30.00%
Total 100283025 43521382 143804407 431355979 33.34%
Eid Sales Other Sales
143804407 287551572

Percentage
Oth

Month Sales of 2014 Sales of 2015 Sales of 2016

January 1790290 4412739 9202318
February 3481990 2351934 10391970
March 4384980 6063970 11603831 33.34%
April 4631650 7491518 13931570
May 4883260 8579014 13000314
June 5587310 14961309 43960083
July 20807900 35515042 24430419
August 4953944 9215456 14158469
September 7920766 15826092 19774524
October 8098074 9168621 15968109 Ei d Sa
November 5651363 8858105 15014633
December 8866198 15385103 21033111
Percentage of Eid Sales and
Other sales

66.66%

33.34%

Ei d Sa l es Other Sal es