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ENGINEERING UNCERTAINTY
Benjamin Heydecker
b.heydecker@ucl.ac.uk
Engineering uncertainties
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Introduction
Mathematics of probability
Empirical definition of probability –
Let:
n – be the number of experiments
fE - be the frequency of occurrence of an event E in an experiment
Note: 0 P(E) 1
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Probability (Example)
Consider event E (either occurs or does not in a trial):
p probability that a trial results in event E occurring
n number of trials
f=0
f number of events pˆ 0
Probability (1-p)2
f= 0
Probability 1-p
NB: 2 ways for 1
Event E with f=1
probability p event to occur pˆ 0.5
in 2 trials Probability 2p(1-p)
f=1
Probability p
f=2
pˆ 1
Probability p2
Probability (Example)
Relative frequency (proportion) of observations:
P = 0.85 and P = 1/3
1
Estimated proportion P
0.75
0.5
0.25
0
0 25 50 75 100
Number of observations n
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Mathematics of probability
Definition of probability
Solid
rocket
boosters
Shuttle
General characteristics
O rings
Length: 37.24 m Empty mass: 68,585 kg
Wingspan: 23.79 m Max. takeoff mass: 109,000 kg
Height: 17.25 m Powerplant: 3 × liquid-fuelled engines, 1.75 MN each
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4 3
0 16
(0 C)
32 36 O rings
(2.2 C) No launch without
O ring distress
>>> Consider all of the data <<<
• Conjunction: A B AB
A and B both occur
• Negation: ¬A
A does not occur (“not A”)
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3 2
2 C
(MPa)
8 16 2
B
AB
6 0 1
(kg/m3)
Example
Count occurrence of the specified events:
C : > 65 (MPa) : fC = 7
BC: fBC = fB + fC = 34
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Example:
B : 55 < < 65 (MPa) (Normal strength)
C : > 65 (MPa) (High strength)
Venn Diagram
A B = (A B) (A ¬B) (¬A B)
P(A B) = P(A B) + P(A ¬B) + P(¬A B)
AB
= P(A) + P(B) – P(A B)
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De Morgan’s laws
From the Venn diagram:
¬(A B) = (¬ A ¬B)
Venn Diagram
Example:
Failure F of elements A B in series:
F = F(A) F(B) = ¬(¬F(A) ¬F(B))
AB
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Probability function
b
Calculation of probability from pdf px(x) : P a X b px x dx
x a
0.5
y
y = px(x)
0
0
a b x
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nk
Bin k ; n, p nCk p k 1 p 0 k n
n! nk p
n
Ck 0 k n Pk 1 Pk 0 k n
k ! n k ! k 1 1 p
nC is the number of different ways k successes can be arranged in n trials
k
Binomial probability is sum of the probability of each of these
b
Mean E(X) : Discrete E X x Px Weight each
x a outcome by
its probability,
b
then sum
Continuous EX x p x dx (integrate)
xa
n x
K
nk
EX k 1 k k
Pk 1 k K
n i1 i
K K
i 1 i n
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nk
Bin k ; n, p nCk p k 1 p 0 k n
n!
n
Ck 0 k n
k ! n k !
Mean value of K :
E K ; n, p np
Modal value k+ of K :
Pk Pk 1 k n 1 p k Int n 1 p
0.0582
If model agrees with data, then drivers’ seatbelt wearing is mutually independent
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Conditional probability
Consider two events A and B :
The conditional probability P(A|B) is
the probability that A occurs given that B has occurred
Conditional probability
Example:
A box contains five 10 resistors
twelve 30 resistors
Questions:
– The probability of picking a 10 resistor?
– If the first resistor picked is 10 and retained,
what is the probability that the second will be 30 ?
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Conditional probability
Example:
A box contains five 10 resistors
twelve 30 resistors
(17 total)
Question:
– The probability of picking a 10 resistor?
Answer:
Define events
A : 10 resistor is picked
B : 30 resistor is picked
Probability that a 10 resistor is picked: P(A) = 5/17
Conditional probability
Example:
A box contains five 10 resistors
twelve 30 resistors
Question:
– If the first resistor picked is 10 and is retained,
what is the probability that the second will be 30 ?
Answer:
– Number of resistors remaining = 17 – 1 = 16
– Number of 30 resistors = 12
– Hence P(B|A) = 12/16 = 3/4
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3 2
2 C
(MPa)
8 16 2
B
6 0 1
(kg/m3)
Example
Consider concrete at normal density In this case, there are no
samples of normal
A : 2440 < < 2460 (kg/m3) : fA = 19 density concrete that
have low strength
Given A, what is the conditional probability of:
Normal strength B : 55 < < 65 (MPa)
P(B | A) = P(A B) / P(A) P(B) = fB / n
= fAB / fA = 16 / 19 0.84 = 26 / 40 = 0.65
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Independent events
Two events are mutually independent if the occurrence of one
does not affect the probability of the other
Example:
– When rolling a die twice, the outcome of the first roll
does not affect the outcome of the second
Analytically:
P(A | B) = P(A)
P(A B) = P(A | B) P(B) = P(A) P(B)
Conditional probability
Concrete strength and density:
Probability P(B) of normal strength
P(B) = 26/40 = 0.65
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Probability P(F<f)
Probability Pf
out of n=19 normal density 0.5 0.12
Then X ~ Bin(n, p) 0 0
0 5 10 15
Number of events f
3 2
2 C
(MPa)
8 16 2
B
6 0 1
A A+
(kg/m3)
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Conditional probability
Poisson distribution
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ܲ ܺ ͳʹ ൌ ͳ െ ܲ ܺ ൏ ͳʹ
ଵଵ
ɉݐ௫
= 1 − exp െɉ ݐ
ݔǨ
௫ୀ
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Example application:
Arrivals of oil tankers at a refinery
Example application:
Example application:
Arrivals of of
Arrivals oil oil
tankers at aatrefinery
tankers a refinery
Mean number N arriving each day is .
Current facilities can service up to Q tankers in a day
If N > Q arrive, Q are served and N - Q are sent on to another port
(Mean 2/day) (Mean arrivals 2/day)
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b
Calculation of probability from pdf px(x) : P a X b px x dx
x a
0.5
y
y = px(x)
0
0
a b x
Examples:
b
g(x) = x2 : E X
2
x 2 p x dx
xa
Minimum function:
Q
g(n) = Min(n, Q) : E Min N , Q n pn Q P N Q
n 0
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Measures of dispersion:
Variance and others
Poisson distribution
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Mean: E K ; n, p np E N;
Variance:
E K 2 ; n, p n n 1 p 2 np E N 2 ; 2
Var K ; n, p np 1 p Var N ; so I 1
Normal distribution
Also known as Gaussian distribution
1 1 x 2
pdf x; , exp Notation: X Nor(, )
2 2
Properties:
Symmetric about x = , so E(X) =
Var(X) = 2 so SD(X) =
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Normal distributions
2 1
z
μ1 μ2
Normal distributions
σ 2 σ1
σ2
σ1
z
μ
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Combinations of variables
Combinations of variables
Examples:
a = 1, b = 1 : E(X + Y) = E(X) + E(Y) , Var(X + Y) = Var(X) + Var(Y)
a = 1, b = -1 : E(X - Y) = E(X) - E(Y) , Var(X - Y) = Var(X) + Var(Y)
a = 1, b = 1 , X ~ Y : E(X + Y) = 2E(X) , Var(X + Y) = 2Var(X)
a = 2, b = 0 : E(2X) = 2E(X), Var(2X) = 4Var(X) (Perfect correlation)
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1 z2
pdf: z exp
2 2
X Nor(, ) Y = aX + b
Y Nor(a+b, a)
Z = (X - )/ Nor(0, 1)
z = (70–60)/15 = 2/3
0
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 P(X > 70 inches) = P(Z > 2/3)
60" x 70"
1 - (2/3) 0.25
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(z) – 0.5
For X ~ N(m, s) :
P ( X ) 0.68 2 3
P ( 2 X 2) 0.95
P ( 3 X 3) 0.998
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