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Theresa M. Kelley
by theresa m. kelley
How can we not feel that time percolates rather than flows? Far from
flowing in laminar and continuous lines, like a well-behaved river
under a bridge, upstream to downstream, time descends, turns back
on itself, stops, starts, bifurcates ten times, divides, blends, caught up
in whirlpools and counter-currents, hesitant, aleatory, uncertain and
fluctuating, multiplied into a thousand beds like the Yukon River. . . .
Sudden explosions, quick crises, periods of stagnant boredom, bur-
densome or foolish regressions, and long blockages, but also rigorous
linkages and suddenly accelerated progress, meet and blend in scientific
time as in the intimacy of the soul, in meteorology as in river basins.
Would we have understood such obvious facts without the theory of
percolation? . . . [T]he word time [temps] goes back to the aleatory
mixtures of the temperaments, of intemperate weather, of tempests and
temperature. If the time of a planet and the time of a river can have
such subtlety, what about historical time? We can say, at the very least,
that history is chaotic, that it percolates. Simultaneously unpredictable
and deterministic, its course blends all paces.
i. introduction
ELH 75 (2008) 625–652 © 2008 by The Johns Hopkins University Press 625
historical necessity, even within the philosophical frame of G. W. F.
Hegel’s desire to ward off contingency as a threat to the restlessness
of a truly dialectical spirit? 2
The first section of the essay assesses the role of contingency in
early modern and romantic arguments about probability, history, and
temporality and, particularly for Hegel, the problem of contingency
as a barrier to the development of spirit or mind. Ian Hacking and
Reinhart Koselleck provide distinctive itineraries for romantic thought
about chance and probability. For Hacking, the mathematical transfor-
mation of chance into the logic of probability signals a profound desire
to tame the unexpected. For Koselleck, the French Revolution is the
modern watershed for inserting chance and the unexpected into the
very notion of historical time. Both views recognize a gradual, often
unwilling divergence from what Walter Benjamin called “homogeneous,
empty time,” that view of history which assumed that it was always the
same everywhere, embedded in a chain of continuities that secured
our sense of who we were (as long as “we” were only Europeans) and
where we belonged.3
Contingency names what happens when chance, rather than a
prescribed order or continuity, is recognized as having a role in the
course of events. Because it interrupts an expected sequence, troubling
notions of causality and even the very idea of the event as something
with a before and after, contingency perplexes efforts to write history
or write about it.4 Alain Badiou’s considerations of being and event turn
on the perplexity of thinking about events via instances in modernity
that effectively unseat expectations about the sequence of events.
One such event for Badiou, as for Koselleck, is the French Revolution
because it opens up a space in time that was not anticipated and that
was marked in turn by other, contingent eruptions, among them the
Terror.5 In spite of William Blake’s hope in his poem Milton for a mo-
ment that Satan cannot find, such moments either affront or gesture
toward the ethics of the future that Percy and Mary Shelley imagine
in works they wrote in Italy between 1819 and 1822.6
The second section of the essay presents Mary Shelley’s Valperga,
written in Italy as she and Percy Shelley imagined better political
worlds than their own, as a fictional intervention in history states what
contingency does to a development that is understood to be linear
and unstoppable. As Tilottama Rajan has observed, the novel offers a
counterfactual narrative about how to disrupt a march of history shaped
by military conquest and authoritarian rule; in doing so, Shelley revisits
questions and philosophical disappointments that her father William
Hegel’s brief against contingency follows from his recognition that the
world of nature, including its species and their classification, is riddled
with the effects of contingency such that no fixed order of things can
be ascertained. He adamantly separates nature from mind or spirit to
preserve a space in which the will can operate and claim agency as
things in nature cannot.25
The lexical and philosophical history of contingency, chance, and
probability recurs in romantic writing, where it registers a near-somatic
understanding of hazard or chance as the hidden rule (in other words,
the hidden is made to resemble a rule called probability). Such narra-
tives do so by taking chances, telling stories in which chance operates
like a familiar, if unpredictable companion. In The Prelude, William
Wordsworth engages in a fairly chancy management of chance, from
the discarded passage in the two-part Prelude (1799) which character-
izes the assembled “spots of time” as “accidents in flood and field” to
his scattering of sublime chance encounters across later versions of
the poem, including one episode staged on the sands of Leven, where
the poet learns that Robespierre is dead.26 With the Reign of Terror,
like the shallow sea on the sands of Leven, “far retired,” Wordsworth
can proceed, having once again safely housed a chance encounter that
requires some payment in kind for its sublime offering.27
In Samuel Taylor Coleridge’s Rime of the Ancient Mariner, chance
is most fully presented in the dice game (which could as easily and
more truthfully be called a game of “hazard”) that decides the Mari-
ner’s immediate fate. The climate of the voyage seems in some ways
as marked by chance as the poem’s ethical and juridical complaints
about the Mariner, recalling Kant’s claim that the law of probability
governs “oscillations in the weather.”28 Although the laws of probabil-
She was never heard of more; even her name perished. She slept in
an oozy cavern of the ocean; the seaweed was tangled with her shining
hair; and the spirits of the deep wondered that the earth had trusted
so lovely a creature to the barren bosom of the sea, which, as an evil
step-mother, deceives and betrays all committed to her care.
Earth felt no change when she died; and men forgot her. . . .
Endless tears might well have been shed at her loss; yet for her none
wept, save the piteous skies, which deplored the mischief they had
themselves committed;—none moaned except the sea-birds that flapped
their heavy wings above the ocean-cave wherein she lay;—and the
muttering thunder alone tolled her passing bell, as she quitted a life,
which for her had been replete with change and sorrow. (437–38)
These inspired women first appeared in Italy after the twelfth century,
and have continued even until our own days. After giving an account of
their pretensions, Muratori gravely observes, “We may piously believe
that some were distinguished by supernatural gifts, and admitted to the
secrets of heaven; but we may justly suspect that the source of many
of their revelations, was their ardent imagination, filled with ideas of
religion and piety.”63