Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam: Rumoured that Party
Secretary General
Nguyễn Phú Trọng is Seriously
Ill
Carlyle A. Thayer
April 22, 2019
Nguyễn Khắc Giang, a PhD candidate at Victoria University of Wellington (New
Zealand), has broken the code of silence to write the first article in English about the
rumoured incapacitation of Vietnam's party Secretary General Nguyễn Phú Trọng.
Giang wrote an article entitled, "Is Vietnam Creeping into a Succession Crisis?" that
was published in The Diplomat on 20 April; https://thediplomat.com/…/is-vietnam-
creeping-into-a-succe…/.
On 14-15 April, Vietnamese social media reported that Secretary General Trọng
suffered a brain aneurism while visiting Kiên Giang province. He was reportedly
transported to Chợ Rẫy hospital in Hồ Chí Minh City. Other reports said he was flown
to Japan for medical treatment. Vietnamese state media have been quiet following
the pattern when President Trần Đại Quang was terminally ill.
If is now clear that Secretary General Trọng failed to meet U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy
during his visit to inaugurate the dioxin/Agent Orange remediation project at Bien Hoa
Air Base this week.
Giang chances his arm to suggest three possible successors to Secretary General Trọng
based on "expert predictions." These are: Trần Quốc Vượng, Executive Secretary of
the Central Committee; Prime Minister Nguyễn Xuân Phúc; and Phạm Minh Chính,
head of the party's Central Organisation Committee.
Assuming that the rumours about Trọng’s illness are correct, it is important to know
how seriously Secretary General Trọng has been affected. If he was only mildly
incapacitated it may be premature to start speculating about a succession crisis. We
would have to wait and see if he recovers after a period of convalescence and is able
to continue in office albeit with a much reduced work load.1
If Secretary General Trọng was seriously affected (or does not recover sufficiently to
resume full time work) Vietnam could avoid a succession crisis by decoupling the roles
of party Secretary General and state President and appointing a caretaker to each. The
current Vice President, Đặng Thị Ngọc Thịnh, for example, could assume the role of
Acting President as she did following the death of President Quang last September.

1
Private sources report that Secretary General Trọng has partly recovered and is paralyzed in one
arm.
 2

The Politburo could appoint a caretaker party leader from now until the 13th national
party congress scheduled for early 2021. It should be recalled that when party leader
Lê Duẩn passed away in July 1986 he was replaced by a former party chief, Trường
Chinh. Six months later, at the sixth national party congress, reformist Nguyễn Văn
Linh was elected party Secretary General.
If the Politburo opts for a caretaker seniority should weigh heavily. This suggests -
however improbable - that Tòng Thị Phóng (first deputy chair of the National
Assembly) or Nguyễn Thiện Nhân (party secretary of Hồ Chí Minh City) could be likely
candidates. Phóng has government experience and would be the first female party
leader.
The appointment of a caretaker would buy the party at least twenty months to decide
who to nominate as the next party Secretary General.
Until we know the precise nature and severity of Trọng’s reported illness, all this is idle
speculation. Trọng might recover in the coming months and retire at the next
congress.
One indication of the state of Secretary General Trọng’s health is whether is able to
address the opening and closing sessions of the next Central Committee plenum
normally held in May.
Secretary General Trọng was invited by President Donald Trump in February to visit
Washington this year. The ball is now in Vietnam's court to halt speculation and to
give a report on the status of Nguyễn Phú Trọng’s health.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam: Rumoured that Party Secretary

General Nguyễn Phú Trọng is Seriously Ill,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, April
22, 2019. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To
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