Professional Documents
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Sectors in Limelight On the broader markets we expect that markets to have a base around 6000
Top Gainers % Top Losers % level on Nifty and start moving up as Fund flows are encouraging and we expect
Pharma 2.9 Realty 3.2
Oil / Refineries 2.5 Construction 2.2
participation to gather momentum. Though there is some concern on Currency
Textiles 2.4 Hotels 2.1 front and the leaders of G-20 are meeting to find some ways to combat the so
Scrips in Limelight
called currency war, we feel that the Govt will not take any drastic measure to
Top Gainers % Top Losers %
Indo Rama Synthetics 26 Sesa Goa 9 disturb FII inflows in the country.
Canara Bank 13 Chambal Fertilizers 6
Abhishek Inds 13 Pratibha Inds 6 We suggest to add position on trading side as momentum on the upside will
Biocon 11 Untiech Ltd. 6
pick up next week.
Merck 11 Sterlite Inds 6
Currency Key Market Drivers
Closing %▲
` /Euro 62.07 - 0.19
• FII Flows
` /US$ 44.46 - 0.98 • Quarterly Results
Rupee ` vs. US$ Institutional
FIIs could be net buyers on dips
Speculative
We expect selling to be initiated on rise
Tech View
Small black candle formation on the daily and doji formation on the weekly
chart indicates indecisiveness. Daily momentum Oscillator is showing signs of
Stock Updates weakness as they have pierced their respective trigger lines on downside. We
Corporation Bank Accumulate expect Nifty to remain in a range of 5950-6150 for the next week and expect
TCS Accumulate
expiry near to 6000.
Cadila Healthcare Buy
MSFL Research
The MSFL S t o c t r a c
20%
Abhishek Inds. Shree Ashtavinayak Cine United Phosphorus Canara Bank, Biocon, Merck
Federal Bank, J&K Bank Ahmednagar Forgings
Upper Ganges
10%
ENIL, West Coast Paper Aurobindo Pharma, ICRA Ltd. Uttam Galva, Andhra Bank, IOC Tulip Telecom, IDBI, Zee Ltd. TCS, 3i Infotech, TNPL GSFC, ING Vysya Bank, BOI
Torrent Pharma, AIA Eng Sakthi Sugar, GE Shipping Tata Coffee, Bharati Shipyard Corporation Bk, Allahabad Bk Bhushan Steel, Simplex Infra Essar Oil, Arvind Ltd.
Seshasayee Paper, PVR Honda Siel Power, SUN TV Union Bank Of India, Apar Inds. Sona Koyo Steering, Indian Bk Orchid Chemicals, Strides Geometric Soft., Alok Inds.
HT Media, Tricom India Inox Leisure, Simbhaoli Sugar Glenmark Pharma, Sun Pharma Panacea Biotec, Lupin Ltd. Cinemax India Nagarjuna Const., JK Cement
0%
Aventis Pharma, NDTV Orbit Corp., Ackruti City Unitech Ltd., Sterlite Inds, Rolta Sesa Goa, Wipro, GMR Infra Pratibha Inds, Ingersol Rand Chambal Fertilisers, Infosys
JSL Stainless, 3M India Viceroy Hotels, Provouge Mastek, Opto Circuits {I}, DLF HDFC, Reliance Mediaworks GNFC Parsvnath Developers, RCF
Bombay Dyeing, EIH Valecha Engg, Tata Comm Dhampur Sugar, JSW Steel Jyoti Structures, Esab India Nagarjuna Fertilizers
Ind-Swift Labs., ABB Birla Corp., Ispat Ind, TV 18 Alstom Projects, Kinetic Motor Kotak Mahindra, Axis Bank Redington, Ultratech Cement
-10%
-20%
Murudeshwar Ceramics
Sensex and Nifty both increased by 0.20% and 0.02% during the week. The market remained volatile during the
week. The market opened with a positive and after trading in range for two days it closed on a negative note. The
food inflation eased by nearly a percentage point to 15.53 per cent as of October 9 compared with 16.37 per cent in
the previous week. This is primarily due to enhanced supplies and a drop in year-on-year inflation in some essential
items, especially cereals, pulses and vegetables such as potatoes and onions. The m- view grid for last week
remained in loser with below average volumes quadrant. There was a marginal rise in gainers with above average
volumes while gainers with below average volumes also witnessed a significant rise same as compared to last week.
There was a marginal decline in losers with above average volumes. Losers with below average volumes witnessed a
significant rise as compared to last week. The grid for next week is expected to be in losers with below average
volumes as we expect markets to trade in a narrow range with a negative bias and profit booking at higher levels.
Canara Bank share price increased by 13% during the week after the lender posted 10 percent growth in its
net profit for the second quarter of FY11.
Biocon price increased by 13% during the week on account of better Q2FY11 numbers and deal with Pfizer for
biosimilar insulin for which company is expected to get $350mln over a period of 2-3 years.
TCS share price decreased by 9% during the week after company posted better than expected Q2FY11
numbers and in anticipation of strong demand for outsourcing.
Outlook:
We continue to remain positive on the construction sector; given the increase in revenue
visibility, fund availability, regulatory overhaul to aid execution.
Summary Financials
Net Sales EBIDTA EBIDTA Margin PAT PAT Margin
Q2FY Q2FY Q2FY chg Q2FY Q2FY chg
y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y
11 11 11 (bps) 11 11 (bps)
HCC 8563 9.4% 1011 13.0% 11.8% 38 201 58% 2.4% 167
Ahluwalia 4198 21.0% 473 2.6% 11.3% (202) 246 3.6% 5.8% (99)
Pratibha 2789 32% 352 23% 12.6% (99) 121 14% 4.3% (70)
IVRCL 13011 6.8% 1210 5.7% 9.3% (100) 390 (21)% 3.0% (101)
Sadbhav 2306 24.5% 264 29.2% 11.5% 41 74.6 101% 3.2% 123
IRB Infra 5480 54.0% 2455 40.5% 44.8% (429) 971 37% 18% (217)
GVK PIL 5019 2.0% 1395 (7.5)% 27.8% (283) 383 (13)% 7.6% (135)
Monsoon season across the country limits project execution thereby affecting company’s growth rate
in Q2. This year the country witnessed consistent heavy showers in select regions resulting in floods.
Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, UP & J&K were amongst the worst affected regions. Also, Andhra Pradesh
irrigation orders continue to remain in limbo due to poor state finance & lack of political will. This is
expected to result in <10% growth for HCC & IVRCL Infrastructure.
Environmental concerns forced cancellation of three projects viz. Loharinagpala (600MW), Pala
Maneri (480MW) & Bhaironghathi (381MW) on Bhagirathi River in the state of Uttarakhand.
Loharinagpala was under construction while the other two projects were in the conception stage.
NTPC, the developer of the project had awarded civil contracts to HCC (` 2.8bln) & Patel Engineering
(` 6.7bln) and had incurred a cost in excess of ` 20bln. Also, NHPC projects with a total capacity of
7731MW are awaiting environmental clearance from various authorities (Patel Engineering is L1
bidder in Kotli Bhel 1A project which is awaiting forest clearance)
Order inflow for companies under our coverage has declined in Q2FY11 by 16% on a y-o-y basis to `
58bln. Transportation and Building segment contributed 48% & 25% respectively to the inflow.
However, order backlog for the companies remains to be strong with average order backlog/sales in
excess of 3 (except Ahluwalia Contracts). The cumulative order backlog for the companies stood at `
651.2bln in Q1FY11 as compared to ` 446.8bln in FY09. The low base of FY10 and high order backlog
has resulted in the average order backlog to sales ratio jumping from 3.6 in FY09 to 4.4 in FY10.
NHAI failed to sustain the momentum in award of projects this quarter. It was able to award only 2
projects with a total length of 168kms and a total project cost of ` 8.7bln as compared to an average
award of 18 projects per quarter. As per the revised targets NHAI plans to award 9000kms of road in
2010-2011. We expect order inflow to pick up for our coverage universe mainly driven by pick up in
industrial capex in 2HFY11 and award of infrastructure projects in road, power & urban infrastructure
segments.
The cement prices cooled off from its high in March 2010 but have started to increase from June
2010; however the steel prices have remained flat during the Q1FY11. We expect the commodity
prices to be higher as compared to previous year which could hurt the margins on EBITDA level.
Outlook: Order inflow momentum to continue; remain positive over medium term
The government expects infrastructure investment to reach USD 135bln p.a. in FY11 & FY12 as
against an annual spend of USD 55bln in the last 3 years. Hence, we expect the order backlog of
companies to grow by 30% creating a strong platform for medium term growth which is reflected in
the order inflow for Q1FY11.
Volume takes off continues: TCS registered 11.2% sequential increase in its volume backed
by strong deal traction across the board. Company won 8 large deals in the quarter in
banking, insurance, and retail sector. Pricing declined marginally at 26bps Q-o-Q. We
expect good volume traction to continue for the company for remaining part of the year
while pricing to be flat.
Relative Performance %
1M 3M 1YR
Margin improvement- a surprise: Improvement in margins by 86bps was a positive surprise
TCS 11.22 23.29 65.82
BSE IT 3.23 12.39 (39.27)
as against expectation of a decline on back of promotions and variable pay out. Currency
Nifty 1.25 11.47 21.60 tailwind, rate productivity, SG&A efficiency offset the wage hike headwind. However, going
Valuation forward there could be margin pressure from appreciating rupee.
FY10 FY11P FY12P
P/E (x) 29.1 24.4 20.8 Highest addition- forecasting positive demand scenario: TCS added 10717 net employees
P/BV (x) 11.1 8.4 6.6 in the quarter which is highest ever addition. Management has guided 19000 gross
RONW (%) 43.7 41.6 40
additions for remaining half of the year increasing its earlier guidance to 50000 gross
ROCE (%) 38.4 34.4 31.5
additions for the year. Higher addition clearly indicates a strong deal pipeline for the
Peer Valuation (FY10)
Infosys Wipro Avg company.
PE 24.3 21.7 23
P/BV 6.2 4.9 5.5 Valuation: TCS remain as our top pick. We revise our EPS target for FY11/FY12 to
Equity Data ` 42.6/50.1 from earlier 40.5/45. We also go forward with stock re-rating on back of
Market Cap. (` bn) 2037 exemplary outperformance both on top-line and bottom-line front valuing it at par with
Face value (`) 1
Infosys at a multiple of 22. The stock is currently trading at 24.4xFY11P and 20.8xFY12P
No of shares o/s (mn) 1957
earnings. We revise our outlook from ‘Buy’ to ‘Accumulate‘ with a target price of ` 1101 on
Sep09 Sep10 %Δ
FY12P earnings.
Promoters 74.33 74.01 0.00
FD/Foreign Stake 0.00 0.00 0.00 Summary Financials
DFI's 7.98 8.13 0.02 ` mln FY09 FY10 FY11P FY12P
FII's 11.87 12.44 0.05
Net Sales 278129 300289 359546 430896
Public 5.82 5.42 -0.07
OPBDIT 71698 86945 105013 127373
Free Float (mn) 502.41 508.68 0.01
EBIDTA Margin (%) 25.8 29.0 29.2 29.6
Key Institutional Holdings
Depreciation 5641 6609 7170 7999
HDFC MF, UTI MF, Reliance MF, ICICI Pru MF
Interest 287 161 203 50
Earnings Profile (in ` mln)
Other Income -4270 2721 5393 7110
Tax 8390 11970 19576 28448
Net Profit 57381 70927 83457 97986
Adj EPS 26.9 35.8 42.6 50.1
Networth 157000 184667 242648 310723
Debt 5632 1033 1033 1033
Fixed Assets 41896 45394 53814 56315
Net Current Assets 75435 73950 123512 189084
Domestic business continues to grow: Cadila has shown revenue growth across business
segments. The domestic formulations business grew by 18.4% during the quarter which
was mainly driven by branded formulations which grew by 19.1% during the quarter.
Growth was led by new product launches and traction in older brands. Zydus wellness
Relative Performance % growth was 23.2% during the quarter and company also launched Sugarfree mint and
1M 3M 1YR
Eggless mayonnaise during the quarter. The Animal Healthcare business also showed a
Cadila 11.65 10.59 28.80
BSE Healthcare 9.42 14.59 46.05
healthy growth of 17.9% during the quarter.
Nifty 1.25 11.47 21.60
Export sales driven by USA and Brazil: Exports showed an overall growth of 24.6% which
Valuation
was mainly on account of USA and Brazilian formulation business which grew by 40.8%
FY10 FY11P FY12P
P/E (x) 27.9 21.1 16.9
and 26.7% respectively. USA growth was driven by launch of Flomax in Q1FY11 and
P/BV (x) 5.78 6.59 5.07 improvement in market share by the older products. Emerging market formulation was
RONW (%) 33.5 32.7 31.3 back on track clocking growth of 43% y-o-y against degrowth in Q1FY11. European
ROCE (%) 24.3 26.6 27.4
business grew by 11.3% and Cadila is continuously shifting manufacturing to India to
Peer Valuation (FY10)
improve margins. Zydus Hospira JV launched one more product and registered growth of
SPIL lupin
PE 22.6 17.8 53.8% during the quarter. API sales degrew by 7.1% due to higher base and delay in
P/BV 3.9 4.7 shipment of product worth ` 50 mln.
Equity Data
Valuation: Management had guided for USD 1 bln topline in FY11 and looking at the first
Market Cap. (` bn) 141
Face value (`) 5 half performance we believe that the company is on track to achieve it. At CMP of ` 690
No of shares o/s (mn) 205 the stock is currently trading at 16.9xFY12E. Looking at the current performance the stock
Sep09 Sep10 %Δ deserves to be rerated and we are raising our Target Price from ` 736 to ` 817 valuing it
Promoters 74.79 74.79 0.00 at 20xFY12E.
FD/Foreign Stake 0.00 0.00 0.00
DFI's 14.40 13.66 - 0.05
FII's 3.12 4.96 0.59 Summary Financials
Public 7.69 6.59 - 0.14 Particulars (` in mln) Q2FY11 Q2FY10 y-o-y FY11P FY12P
Free Float (mn) 172.03 258.07 0.50 Net sales 11063.2 9126 21.2 52760 60691
Key Institutional Holdings OPBDIT 2449 2057 19.1 10198 12309
Interest 160 231 -30.5 735 700
ICICI Pru MF, SBI MF, Reliance MF, UTI MF
Depreciation 304 311 -2.2 1429 1579
Earnings Profile (in ` mln)
OPBT 1984 1515 30.8 8034 10030
O.Inc(+)/Ex Ord Exp(-) 39 41 -6.3 172 211
PBT 2022 1495 35.3 8206 10241
PAT 1708 1319 29.5 6675 8357
EPS (Rs.) 8.35 6.45 29.5 32.62 40.85
Book Value - - - 105 136
Total shareholders fund - - - 21422 27872
Debt - - - 10500 10000
21000
20500
19500
18500
18000
17000
16000
15500
50000
45000
overbought.
10000
5000
x 1000
2009 Decem ber 2010 February March April May June July Augus t Septem ber October Nove
6200
6100
6000
5800
5700
5600
5400
5300
5200
5000
4900
4800
4600
4500
4400
30000
25000
20000
10000
5000
x 10000
2009 Decem ber 2010 February March April May June July Augus t Septem ber October Nove
weakness.
MSFL Research
T E C H N I PICKS
Essar Oil ( ` 150) Triangle pattern break out seen
ESSAR OIL (142.150, 150.900, 142.000, 149.700, +8.0000)
160
145
135
120
105
20000
10000
2009 December 2010 February March April May June July August September October Nove
1600
1500
1450
1350
1250
1200
1100
1000
950
850
750
700
Volume (215,762)
20000
10000
1340.
5000
x100
2009 December 2010 February March April May June July August September October Nove
Volume (1,225,164)
35000
2009 December 2010 February March April May June July August September October Nove
61.8%
2650
2600 2600
2400 2400
Daily RSI has entered into negative territory but 2350 2350
November December 2010 February March April May June July August September October Nove
1150 1150
1000 1000
800 800
levels. November December 2010 February March April May June July August September October Nove
1150
38.2%
1100
50.0%
1000
950
161.8% 850
Volume (2,111,964)
10000
CMP 416
420
415
410
405
400
395
Reco Sell
380
375
370
365
360
355
HDFC 850
Bear Engulfing pattern has been formed on Daily
chart indicate weakness. Daily RSI is continues
800
600
500
sticks on weekly chart indicate weakness. Short
Resist. 720, 736 450
CMP 428
425
420
415
410
405
Novem ber Decem ber 2010 February March April May June July Augus t Septem ber October Nove
CMP 1053
1190
1180
1170
1160
1150
Novem ber Decem ber 2010 February March April May June July Augus t Septem ber October Nove
JSW Steel
1400
1350
1300
CMP 1255
1250
1200
1150
indicating weakness. Short term DEMAs are
Reco Sell
1100
1050
1000
pierced on downside on daily chart. Daily RSI
950
850
700
600
Novem ber Decem ber 2010 February March April May June July Augus t Septem ber October Nove
CMP 500
500
490
480
470
Tata Steel
750
740
730
720
710
CMP 617
690
680
670
660
650
Reco Sell
620
610
600
590
Novem ber Decem ber 2010 February March April May June July Augus t Septem ber October Nove
Karur Vyasa Bank The stock has bounced from 50 DEMA with
660
650
640
630
620
610
600
590
580
CMP 569
560
550
540
530
520
510
500
Reco Buy
470
460
450
440
430
420
410
Resist. 615,650
290
280
270
260
250
240
2009 Decem ber 2010 February March April May June July Augus t Septem ber October Nove
Jindal Saw JINDAL SAW LIMITED (219.300, 228.400, 217.000, 226.750, +9.30000) 235
230
The stock has taking trend line support on
weekly candle chart indicates strength
225
CMP 226
220
215
210
205
Resist. 229,245
155
150
145
Nitinfire
NITIN FIRE PROT IND. LTD. (327.000, 339.400, 325.300, 333.550, +6.19998)
430
420
410
Double bottom pattern has been formed
on daily chart and the stock has successful
400
Reco Buy
350
340
330
Welcorp
WELSPUN GUJ STAHL ROHREN (251.900, 252.450, 248.150, 248.900, -1.90001)
300
295
290
The stock has moving in Rising channel on
CMP 248 daily chart where it corrected from 276
285
280
275
Reco Buy
265
260
255
Support 248,232
245
240
235
MRPL
MRPL (81.1000, 83.7000, 80.4500, 82.8000, +2.30000) 93
92
91
90
89
The stock has given Flag Patten breakout
on daily chart indicates strength. Generally
88
CMP 82.75
87
86
85
84
83
Reco Buy
81
80
79
78
Support 79,77
75
74
73
72
Resist. 86,88
69
68
67
66
2009 December 2010 February March April May June July August September October Nov
CMP 220
225
220
215
210
205
Reco Buy
195
190
185
180
Support 210,,195
165
160
155
150
strength. buy
2009 December 2010 February March April May June July August September October Nov
Renuka Sugar SHR RENUKA SUGARS (85.8000, 87.6500, 84.4500, 84.9000, -0.25000)
125
120
The stock has bounce after taking a
support of 38.2 Fibonacci retrenchment
115
CMP 85 110
105
Reco Buy 95
90
Support 83, 76
80
75
Resist. 91,96
65
60
55
2009 December 2010 February March April May June July August September October Nov
50
higher bottom formation. Buy
Positive: ABG Shipyard,Andhra Bank,Essar Oil, IDBI F&O turnover (NSE) at ` 7175.81 bln
Bank,Jindal Saw,Punj Lloyd,Yes Bank have witnessed
long build up of positions in Nov Series. 800000 717581
700000
Negative : ABNUVO,Axis Bank,Exide Ind.,HCC, 600000
462872
HDIL,HUL,IDFC,Indian Hotels,JP Associates,ONGC, 500000
Sesa Goa,Tata Global,Tata Steel,Unitech have 400000
witnessed short build up of positions in Nov.Series 300000
200000 99426 129813
76715
FII’s were the net buyers in the last week to the 100000 25470
tune of ` 1481 cr. while their open interest has 0
gone up by 1.84 %. Index S tock Index S tock Total C as h
Future Future Option Option
Over the last week Over the last month Over the last year
Out performer Out performer Out performer
Textiles, Oil / Refineries, Pharmaceuticals Shipping, Textiles, Pharmaceuticals Automobile, Auto Ancillaries, Paper, Steel
Fertilizers, Aluminium/Metals Banking & Finance, Tea / Coffee, Textiles
Pharmaceuticals, Fertilizers, Media
Market performer Market performer Market performer
Automobile, Auto Ancillaries, Shipping, I.T Automobile, Auto Ancillaries, Cement Shipping, Cement, Oil / Refineries, FMCG
Banking & Finance, Cement, Paper, FMCG Banking & Finance, Construction, Realty I.T., Engineering, Aluminium/Metals
Tea / Coffee, Sugar, Steel, Telecom, Power Paper, Tea / Coffee, Sugar, FMCG, Power
Power Equipment, Engineering, Fertilizers Oil / Refineries, Steel, I. T., Engineering
Aluminium/Metals, Media Power Equipment, Media
Under performer Under performer Under performer
Construction, Realty, Hotels Telecom, Hotels Construction, Realty, Sugar, Telecom
Power, Hotels, Power Equipment