ANALISIS PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN

TUGAS 4

DECISION TREE

OLEH

HARUN

D621 16 008

PROGRAM STUDI TEKNIK PERTAMBANGAN

FAKULTAS TEKNIK

UNIVERSITAS HASANUDDIN

GOWA

2019
PROBLEM

Warren Buffy is an aenormously wealthy investor who has built his fortune
through his legendary investing. He currently has been offered three major investments
and he would like to choose one. The first one is a conservative investment that would
perform very well in an improving economy and only suffer a small loss in a worsening
economy. The second is a speculative investment that would perform extremely well in
an improving economy but would do very badly in a worsening economy. The third is a
countercyclinal investment that would lose some money in an improving economy but
would perform well in a worsening economy.
Warren believes that there are three possible scenarios over the lives of these
potential investments: (1) an improving economy, (2) a stable economy and (3) a
worsening economy. He is pesimistic about where the economy is headed, and so has
assigned prior probabilities of 0.1, 0.5, and 0.4, respectly, to these three scenarios. He
also estimates that his profits under these respective scenarios are those given by the
following table:
Improving Stable Economy Worsening
Economy Economy
Conservative $ 30 million $ 5 million - $ 10 million
Investment
Speculative - $ 30 million $ 30 million $ 10 million
Investment
Countercyclinal $ 10 million 0 $ 30 million
Investment
Prior Probability 0.1 0.5 0.4

Answer:
EMV Conservative Investment = 0.1 x $3.000.000 + 0.5 x $5.000.000 + 0.4 x -$10.000.000
= $1.500.000

EMV Speculative Investment = 0.1 x -$30.000.000 + 0.5 x $30.000.000 + 0.4 x $10.000.000

= $16.000.000

EMV Countercyclinal Investment = 0.1 x $10.000.000 + 0 + 0.4 x -$10.000.000

= 13.000.000

Jadi, keputusan yang tepat adalah Speculative Investment

Berikut Pohon keputusannya:
Improving Economy (0.1)
$ 30 million

Stable Economy (0.5)

$ 5 million

Worsening Economy (0.4) -$ 10 million

Improving Economy (0.1)

-$ 30 million

Speculative Investment
Stable Economy (0.5)
$ 30 million

Worsening Economy (0.4)

$ 10 million

Improving Economy (0.1)

$ 10 million

Stable Economy (0.5)

$ 0 million

Worsening Economy (0.4) $ 30 million