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System orientation
The systems approach to problems recognizes that the behaviour of any part of a system has
some effect on the behaviour of the system as a whole. Even if the individual components are
performing well, however, the system as a whole is not necessarily performing equally well. For
example, assembling the best of each type of automobile part, regardless of make, does not
necessarily result in a good automobile or even one that will run, because the parts may not fit
together. It is the interaction between parts, and not the actions of any single part, that determines
how well a system performs.
Thus, operations research attempts to evaluate the effect of changes in any part of a system on
the performance of the system as a whole and to search for causes of a problem that arises in one
part of a system in other parts or in the interrelationships between parts. In industry, a production
problem may be approached by a change in marketing policy. For example, if a factory
fabricates a few profitable products in large quantities and many less profitable items in small
quantities, long efficient production runs of high-volume, high-profit items may have to be
interrupted for short runs of low-volume, low-profit items. An operations researcher might
propose reducing the sales of the less profitable items and increasing those of the profitable items
by placing salesmen on an incentive system that especially compensates them for selling
particular items.
Methodology
Until the 20th century, laboratory experiments were the principal and almost the only method of
conducting scientific research. But large systems such as are studied in operations research
cannot be brought into laboratories. Furthermore, even if systems could be brought into the
laboratory, what would be learned would not necessarily apply to their behaviour in their
natural environment, as shown by early experience with radar. Experiments on systems and
subsystems conducted in their natural environment (“operational experiments”) are possible as a
result of the experimental methods developed by the British statistician R.A. Fisher in 1923–24.
For practical or even ethical reasons, however, it is seldom possible to experiment on large
organized systems as a whole in their natural environments. This results in an apparent dilemma:
to gain understanding of complex systems experimentation seems to be necessary, but it cannot
usually be carried out. This difficulty is solved by the use of models, representations of the
system under study. Provided the model is good, experiments (called “simulations”) can be
conducted on it, or other methods can be used to obtain useful results.
Quantifying the Model: All variables in the OR model are quantified. That is, they are
converted into numbers. This is because only quantified data can be put into the model to get
results.
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At the lowest level one might be able to use simple graphical techniques or even trial and error.
However, despite the fact that the development of spreadsheets has made this much easier to do,
it is usually an infeasible approach for most nontrivial problems. Most operation researches.
techniques are analytical in nature, and fall into one of four broad categories. First, there are
simulation techniques, which obviously are used to analyze simulation models. A significant part
of these are the actual computer programs that run the model and the methods used to do so
correctly. However, the more interesting and challenging part involves the techniques used to
analyze the large volumes of output from the programs; typically, these encompass a number of
statistical techniques. The interested reader should refer to a good book on simulation to see how
these two parts fit together. The second category comprises techniques of mathematical analysis
used to address a model that does not necessarily have a clear objective function or constraints
but is nevertheless a mathematical representation of the system in question. Examples include
common statistical techniques such as regression analysis, statistical inference and analysis of
variance, as well as others such as queuing, Markov chains and decision analysis. The third
category consists of optimum-seeking techniques, which are typically used to solve the
mathematical programs described in the previous section in order to find the optimum (i.e., best)
values for the decision variables. Specific techniques include linear, nonlinear, dynamic, integer,
goal and stochastic programming, as well as various network-based methods. A detailed
exposition of these is beyond the scope of this chapter, but there are a number of excellent texts
in mathematical programming that describe many of these methods and the interested reader
should refer to one of these. The final category of techniques is often referred to as heuristics.
The distinguishing feature of a heuristic technique is that it is one that does not guarantee that the
best solution will be found, but at the same time is not as complex as an optimum-seeking
technique. Although heuristics could be simple, common-sense, rule-of-thumb type techniques,
they are typically methods that exploit specific problem features to obtain good results. A
relatively recent development in this area are so-called meta-heuristics (such as genetic
algorithms, tabu search, evolutionary programming and simulated annealing) which are general
purpose methods that can be applied to a number of different problems. These methods in
particular are increasing in popularity because of their relative simplicity and the fact that
increases in computing power have greatly increased their effectiveness.
In applying a specific technique something that is important to keep in mind from a practitioner's
perspective is that it is often sufficient to obtain a good solution even if it is not guaranteed to be
the best solution. If neither resource-availability nor time were an issue, one would of course
look for the optimum solution. However, this is rarely the case in practice, and timeliness is of
the essence in many instances. In this context, it is often more important to quickly obtain a
solution that is satisfactory as opposed to expending a lot of effort to determine the optimum one,
especially when the marginal gain from doing so is small. The economist Herbert Simon uses the
term "satisficing" to describe this concept - one searches for the optimum but stops along the
way when an acceptably good solution has been found.
At this point, some words about computational aspects are in order. When applied to a nontrivial,
real-world problem almost all of the techniques discussed in this section require the use of a
computer. Indeed, the single biggest impetus for the increased use of operation research. methods
has been the rapid increase in computational power. Although there are still large-scale problems
whose solution requires the use of mainframe computers or powerful workstations, many big
problems today are capable of being solved on desktop microcomputer systems. There are many
computer packages (and their number is growing by the day) that have become popular because
of their ease of use and that are typically available in various versions or sizes and interface
seamlessly with other software systems; depending on their specific needs end-users can select
an appropriate configuration. Many of the software vendors also offer training and consulting
services to help users with getting the most out of the systems. Some specific techniques for
which commercial software implementations are available today include optimization/
mathematical programming (including linear, nonlinear, integer, dynamic and goal
programming), network flows, simulation, statistical analysis, queuing, forecasting, neural
networks, decision analysis, and PERT/CPM. Also available today are commercial software
systems that incorporate various O.R. techniques to address specific application areas including
transportation and logistics, production planning, inventory control, scheduling, location
analysis, forecasting, and supply chain management. Some examples of popular O.R. software
systems include CPLEX, LINDO, OSL, MPL, SAS, and SIMAN, to name just a few. While it
would clearly be impossible to describe herein the features of all available software, magazine
such as OR/MS Today and IE Solutions regularly publish separate surveys of various categories
of software systems and packages. These publications also provide pointers to different types of
software available; as an example, the December 1997 issue of OR/MS Today (pages 61-75)
provides a complete resource directory for software and consultants. Updates to such directories
are provided periodically. The main point here is that the ability to solve complex
models/problems is far less of an issue today than it was a decade or two ago, and there are
plenty of readily available resources to address this issue.
We conclude this section by examining the solution to the model constructed earlier for our
hypothetical production problem. Using linear programming to solve this model yields the
optimal solution of G=540 and W=252, i.e., the production plan that maximizes profits for the
given data calls for the production of 540 gizmos and 252 widgets. The reader may easily verify
that this results in a profit of $7668 and fully uses up all of the first two resources while leaving
18 units of the last resource unused. Note that this solution is certainly not obvious by just
looking at the mathematical model - in fact, if one were "greedy" and tried to make as many
gizmos as possible (since they yield higher profits per unit than the widgets), this would
yield G=708 and W=0 (at which point all of the second resource is used up). However, the
resulting profit of $7080 is about 8% less than the one obtained via the optimal plan. The reason
of course, is that this plan does not make the most effective use of the available resources and
fails to take into account the interaction between profits and resource utilization. While the actual
difference is small for this hypothetical example, the benefits of using a good O.R. technique can
result in very significant improvements for large real-world problems
1.6 Validation and Analysis:
Once a solution has been obtained two things need to be done before one even considers
developing a final policy or course of action for implementation. The first is to verify that the
solution itself makes sense. Oftentimes, this is not the case and the most common reason is that
the model used was not accurate or did not capture some major issue. The process of ensuring
that the model is an accurate representation of the system is called validation and this is
something that (whenever possible) should be done before actual solution. However, it is
sometimes necessary to solve the model to discover inaccuracies in it. A typical error that might
be discovered at this stage is that some important constraint was ignored in the model
formulation - this will lead to a solution that is clearly recognized as being infeasible and the
analyst must then go back and modify the model and re-solve it. This cycle continues until one is
sure that the results are sensible and come from a valid system representation.
The second part of this step in the operation research. process is referred to as post optimality
analysis, or in layperson's terms, a "what-if" analysis. Recall that the model that forms the basis
for the solution obtained is (a) a selective abstraction of the original system, and (b) constructed
using data that in many cases is not 100% accurate. Since the validity of the solution obtained is
bounded by the model's accuracy, a natural question that is of interest to an analyst is: "How
robust is the solution with respect to deviations in the assumptions inherent in the model and in
the values of the parameters used to construct it?" To illustrate this with our hypothetical
production problem, examples of some questions that an analyst might wish to ask are, (a) "Will
the optimum production plan change if the profits associated with widgets were overestimated by
5%, and if so how?" or (b) "If some additional amount of Resource 2 could be purchased at a
premium, would it be worth buying and if so, how much?" or (c) "If machine unreliability were
to reduce the availability of Resource 3 by 8%, what effect would this have on the optimal
policy?" Such questions are especially of interest to managers and decision-makers who live in
an uncertain world, and one of the most important aspects of a good operation research. project is
the ability to provide not just a recommended course of action, but also details on its range of
applicability and its sensitivity to model parameters.
Before ending this section, it is worth emphasizing that similar to a traditional Industrial
Engineering project, the end result of an operation research. project is not a definitive solution to
a problem. Rather, it is an objective answer to the questions posed by the problem and one that
puts the decision-maker in the correct "ball-park." As such it is critical to temper the analytical
solution obtained with common sense and subjective reasoning before finalizing a plan for
implementation. From a practitioner's standpoint a sound, sensible and workable plan is far more
desirable than incremental improvements in the quality of the solution obtained. This is the
emphasis of this penultimate phase of the operation research. process.
If you strip any project down to its essence, you’ll find there are two fundamental tasks. The first
is defining the problem that you're trying to solve, and the second is actually setting out to solve
it.
It sounds pretty intuitive, but I think that first step usually receives short shrift. In my experience,
people are so geared up to get in there, roll up their sleeves, and come up with ideas, that they
forget to really set the stage and understand why a client even needs their help in the first place.
What is their marketplace situation like? How is their business performing? What are they setting
out to achieve, and what’s getting in their way?
Asking yourself “What solution should I recommend?” is the worst first step. Before you can
answer that question, you need to do four things.
All effective problem solving starts with effective problem defining. Too often, people jump
right to solving without knowing exactly what they are solving. The big challenge here is
figuring out how to separate the symptom from the disease. Many of us address the symptom
only to find the solution to be a temporary fix.
A great way to uncover the root cause of any problem is to go through the "Five Whys" exercise.
"Five Whys" is a technique that was developed by Toyota to identify manufacturing issues and
solve them in the most effective and efficient way possible. The way you start is to articulate the
problem you’re facing. In terms of corporate strategy, that’s typically a surface level issue like
losing market share or declining sales. With the "Five Whys" technique, the goal is to ask “why"
five times to help you dig deeper and deeper to uncover the root cause of the problem.
For instance, say you’re working with a local, downtown restaurant that has seen revenue
decline. Ask yourself, “Why is revenue declining?” The answer might be that the average ticket
is lower than it used to be. Why is that? Maybe because fewer tickets include an
alcoholic beverage? Ask yourself why that is. Maybe it’s because traffic on Friday and Saturday
nights is down, which is bringing overall alcohol sales down. Why is traffic down on Fridays and
Saturdays? Perhaps it’s because the performing arts center around the corner recently closed
down.
By going through the "Five Whys" exercise, you’re able to better define the problem. Rather than
a food problem or a bar problem, what you might really need to fix is the entertainment problem.
The next step is to create a few different reframes of the problem. Each reframe of the problem
statement could lead to a number of potential solutions. The way we do this is by creating “How
might we…” statements.
Going back to the restaurant example, a few reframes of the problem statement might be:
How might we get more people to add alcohol to weekday tickets (to counterbalance the dip in
weekend sales)?
How might we get more people to spend a Saturday night downtown?
How might we get more happy hour visits from downtown professionals before they leave
downtown for the weekend?
Sharp and varied reframe statements can help unlock some new, surprising solutions.
c. Coming up with solutions
These reframed problem statements are great fodder for a brainstorming process. Actually, in
many situations we prefer brainwriting as opposed to brainstorming. Brainwriting is where a
group of individuals is tasked with a problem to solve and each individual is required to think
and ideate on their own.
You can do these brainwriting sessions in person with a group of people, or do them remotely
and over the course of a few days. Simply asking team members to come up with three ideas for
each “How might we…” statement can give you dozens of potential solutions to consider.
Remember, when it comes to new ideas, quantity is quality. The more ideas you generate, the
more likely you are to have a few gems in the bunch.
d. Evaluating options
You can't solve every problem or implement every solution. Resources and time are limited. To
narrow in on the best opportunities, evaluate and score each potential solution for
2.) its potential size of impact if implemented. This scoring can be done as a group or be the
responsibility of a few key decision makers.
Sometimes it’s helpful to even map these out on a two-by-two matrix, with the ideas that are
easiest and most impactful populating the top right quadrant.
Getting Bruno Mars to play a few sets at a restaurant every other Saturday might be impactful,
but not all that easy to pull off. And a standing karaoke night might be easy to implement but
perhaps not all that impactful. The goal is to identify the ideas that check both boxes, and then
assign the appropriate resources to them.
Keep in mind, there isn’t a framework or methodology in the world that will get you the results
you’re looking for if you’re solving for the wrong problem. Spend as much time (if not more)
diagnosing the problem as solving it, and you’re well on your way to generating truly valuable
solutions for your clients.
Conclusion
Operation research is a day today activity that is intended to find optimal solution to our
problems but its important to note that following the right procedure is the only way to attain the
true results of operations research. Thus, individuals must follow the concepts to yield best
results to the problems
REFERENCES
The solution is the problem- (The Paragraph Project) on April/3/2018 by by Dan Carlton,
founding partner
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(1), 37-45
Barnhart, C., E.L. Johnson, G.L. Nemhauser, M.P.W. Savelsbergh, and P.H. Vance (1998).
Branchand Price: Column generation for solving huge integer programs, Operations
Research, 46, 316-329
Buzzel, R.D. (1964). Mathematical Models and Marketing Management. Harvard University,
Division of Research, Boston, MA
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