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FORCES
SHAPING
THE FUTURE
OF WORK
lynda gratton
investigates:
THE FUTURE
OF WORK
Work is universal. But, how, why,
where and when we work has
future of work will develop and the
impact on you and the organisations
of which you are a member. If you
never been so open to individual are now aged 30, you can expect to
interpretation. The certainties of the work for the next 40 years — that
past have been replaced by ambiguity, means in 2050 you will be a member
questions and the steady hum of of the workforce. If you are 50, you
technology. Now, in a groundbreaking can expect to be actively employed for
research project covering 21 global another 20 years — that’s 2030. If you
have young children, they could be
companies and more than 200
working until 2070.
executives, Lynda Gratton is Work is, and always has been, one
making sense of the future of work. of the most defining aspects of our
In this exclusive article she provides lives. It is where we meet our friends,
a preview of the real world of 21st excite ourselves and feel at our most
century work. creative and innovative. It can also be
where we can feel our most frustrated,
You may be a Baby Boomer in your exasperated and taken for granted.
50s with Gen Y children just joining Work matters — to us as individuals,
the workforce; an alumnus of a to our family and friends and also
business school, a 40-year-old Gen X to the communities and societies in
preparing for 30 more years of work, which we live.
with young Gen Z children; or an Many of the ways of working that
MBA student thinking about the years we have taken for granted for 20
of work ahead of you. years are disappearing — working
Whatever your age, one of the most from nine-to-five, aligning with only
crucial questions you face is how the one company, spending time with
PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE: GRATTON
Photo: LC Griffiths
FIVE FORCES
01 02 03
01 02
One of the first tasks of the research
W
was to identify the external forces
that will fundamentally change the Technological Globalisation
way that work will be done by 2025. developments The combination of technology and
We determined that five forces Technology will influence the size globalisation will have a profound
will be crucial: of the world population and life impact on the way we work in the
expectancy and will influence our future. While many of the new poles
working lives in other deeper and more of economic activity are in the Big
indirect ways — the way we engage Six emerging economies (Brazil,
with others, our views on morality and China, India, Mexico, Russia and
our own human nature. You don’t South Korea), the economies of
have to be a supporter of technological next-wave locations such as Egypt,
determinism to recognise that Nigeria and Turkey are increasingly
technological capability (through its important. These emerging economies
complex interactions with individuals, will increasingly add value through
institutions, cultures and environment) innovation as well as low-cost
is a key determinant of the ground manufacturing. Greater numbers of
rules within which the games of human people will choose to move to the
civilisation get played out. mega-cities of the world, and new
By 2025, we can expect that talent pools will emerge in areas across
more than five billion people will be the globe where the population is
connected by mobile devices, the connected to the world knowledge net.
Internet ‘Cloud’ will deliver low-cost Much of the world will become joined
computing services, an increasing — both in terms of trade in goods and
amount of work will be performed by services, the mobility of labour, the
robots and self-created content will join opening up of new talent pools and in
the digitalisation of books to create an the extent of global connectivity.
unprecedented amount of information Globalisation will bring
in the world knowledge net. We can opportunities for talented and
expect that, across the globe, billions energetic people to become part of
of cognitive assistants will be collecting the world economy wherever they are
information, monitoring people’s born. It will also increase the exclusion
behaviour and taking actions from of those who are not part of the global
their preferences. This massive crowd market, either because they don’t have
of computers is becoming increasingly access to broadband or because they
capable of learning and creating new have neither the talent nor the energy
knowledge entirely on its own and with to compete.
no human help.
FIVE FORCES
01 02 03
03 04 05
Demographic Societal Low-carbon
changes trends developments
The new demography will reshape The mental life of human The extraction and use of energy
our understanding and expectations beings has been transformed by have always framed the way we
of work. In many ways, the coming developments such as language, live and the way we work. Each
decades will be defined by the largest literacy, urbanisation, division of time a new, more complex energy-
demographic group the world has labour, industrialisation, science, consuming development takes place,
ever seen — the Baby Boomers. In communications, transport and it increases the pace, flow and density
2010, they are in their 50s and 60s; media technology. These changes of human exchange and creates
and by 2025 most will have left the will continue over the coming more connectivity between people.
workforce, taking with them a huge years. By 2025, we can expect that Our uses of energy will also frame
store of tacit knowledge and know- people will be more individualistic the way we work in the coming
how as well as, if some commentators and increasingly prepared to forge decades. We can expect oil prices to rise
are to be believed, much of the lifestyles based on their own needs substantially as the developing world
wealth of the next generations. rather than societal expectations. At uses more energy and the sources of oil
The future will also see the same time, we can expect trust have become depleted and expensive
unprecedented increases in life in business and business leaders to to extract. Carbon output will rise
expectancy. There is a strong continue to plummet. steeply, particularly in China and India
possibility that many of the healthy I predict that, in 2025, many with their rapidly developing urban
children born in 2010 will live people will live their lives alone or populations and manufacturing bases.
more than 100 years, as will some in small family groups and some The world will have heated up, with
of those currently in their 20s. of these relationships will become sea levels rising and climates changing.
This will fundamentally bring into more virtual. It will increasingly be Some governments will have introduced
question our current assumptions the norm to work much of the time a carbon tax, and the carbon footprints
about retirement, about the from home or in small community of individuals and companies will be
employment of the over-65s and hubs to avoid the carbon costs and scrutinised and forced to reduce. This
about the provision of pensions. general wear and tear of lengthy could result in a rapid escalation of the
commutes. Most employable women cost of moving goods across the globe
will work outside the home, so the and a rapid reduction of commuting
majority of households will have two and work-related travel. This will be
working members with conventional a significant driver to virtual working
households no longer the norm. and home-based working.
Younger men will have decided to While I have described these
spend more time at home and to forces separately, in reality these
take a more active part in caring for five trends will work together.
their children. More people will work For example, the combination of
as freelancers and ‘neo-nomads’, advances in technology and growing
expecting increasing autonomy and globalisation will significantly increase
freedom. As families become smaller the use of tele-presence, webinars
and more dislocated, friends (and and other communal tools.
what I have termed the ‘regenerative
community’) will play an increasing
role in individual happiness.
The impact on
organisations
The future of work will change not just for individuals but
also for the organisations of which they are members. To
02
video conferencing. BT has 60
understand the breadth and extent of these changes, we
first identified the 20 areas we believe to be important for
,,,, studios around the world that
bring people together in multiple
the future and then asked executives in the consortium High-performing locations. At Save the Children,
companies to rate those they believed to be most virtual teams the executive team is pioneering
new ways to build a collaborative
critical for the future. We also investigated where ‘future Increasingly, work is performed approach across virtual teams
proofed’ examples existed — areas in which members across businesses, functions and brought together for emergencies
organisations. As a consequence
of the consortium had already developed practices and of this cross-border working,
and development work. The
processes that can provide insight and inspiration. executive team believes that this
teams often work virtually,
actually seeing each other only is a trend that will accelerate
Five areas emerged as the most important: occasionally. Our own work on in the future both in terms of
these teams shows that many whom they work with and how
fail as they become overwhelmed collaborative work is performed.
by the sheer complexity of their
task. So it’s no surprise that the O ther companies are focusing
executives in our consortium on how the competencies within
ranked the capacity to manage teams can be understood
and lead high-performing virtual and developed. At Tata
teams as crucial for the future. Consulting Services (TCS), a
competency development and
A t SAP, working virtually inside training tool (iCALMS) holds a
and outside the company has master dictionary of all roles
become the norm and has in TCS, with a description
been shown to create wider of the accountabilities and
networks and allow a more competencies. This creates an
flexible working style. Executives important global base from which
are using complex dialogue to identify the best candidate for
and decision-making tools and a role as well as any knowledge
social-networking tools. At BT, gaps that training modules
virtual team working has been can rapidly fill. It also creates a
01
consist of a diverse group strong foundation for ongoing
of people, which will put an enhanced with Telepresence,
emphasis on their skills of next generation high-definition learning to take place.
Transparent inclusion. ThoughtWorks, a
and authentic bespoke software development
company, has developed a set
leadership of organisational tools: pairing
In a future world of transparency decision makers, holding
and connectivity, leaders will democratic elections for specific
be looked upon to work in a teams and setting up virtual
collaborative manner. We can networks. The philosophy behind
expect their behaviours and the practice is that leadership
actions to be closely scrutinised, is shared to improve decision
so their authenticity will be key. At making and create balance.
the same time, globalisation will Pairing happens at all levels,
create the need for more complex from the highest leadership level,
networks and for leaders to take to developers writing or testing
the initiative in engaging with software, to mentoring. Leaders
global problems and challenges. are encouraged to be democratic
and authentic through the
Leaders will increasingly be process of election, in which
called upon to be members groups are nominated and voted
of a team, most of which will for by their peers.
Overview
03
functions and businesses and Social media has also played a
creating relationships across key role at SAP, where a series
the company. At Nokia, for of tools has been developed for
Valuable cross- example, the process of strategy business networking, business
business networks development has been opened
to many employees in order to
processes and business
decisions. These have enabled
and relationships develop and gain commitment more complex dialogue and
Increasingly, the value of the to implementing the strategy. decision making than original
organisation will be held in its At Shell, the scenario planning social networking tools.
‘social capital’, that is, the value process, with the recent
of the networks and relationships release of the 2050 scenarios, B uilding valuable networks is
held within businesses, across creates a level of conversation crucial to Nokia, where executives
businesses and into the wider and depth of knowledge that launched a programme called Lynda Gratton
community and ecosystems. has become crucial to the ‘Booster’ in 2008 to encourage lgratton@london.edu
Building relationships across firm’s long-term planning. cross-functional and cross- Gratton is Professor of
businesses will become hierarchical working and to Management Practice at
increasingly important in the A t the Danish pharmaceutical raise the capacity to acquire London Business School.
future as the driver of innovation company Novo Nordisk, and use external resources. The
will require businesses to combine social media plays a crucial programme covered all 5,000 She is the author of a series
assets and resources in ever more role in internal and external employees of the business unit of bestselling books including
unusual and creative ways. communication. The key tools, and started with a two-day face- Hot Spots, Glow and
NovoTube, Novopedia and to-face workshop with 700 team Living Strategy.
e saw a number of examples of
W NovoIdeas, are designed to leaders, followed by involvement
how organisations are breaking improve collaboration and of the whole community through
down the barriers between facilitate knowledge sharing. online social networking.
For more on
Lynda Gratton
see Page 74