Fu G, Horrocks L, Winne S.

Exploring impacts of Climate Change on UK’s ICT Infrastructure.

Infrastructure Asset Management 2016, 3(1), 42-52

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© ICE Publishing. All rights reserved.

DOI link to article:

http://dx.doi.org/10.1680/jinam.15.00002

Date deposited:

01/04/2016

Embargo release date:

01 March 2016

Newcastle University ePrints - eprint.ncl.ac.uk

 Infrastructure Asset Management Infrastructure Asset Management, 2016, 3(1), 42–52
Volume 3 Issue 1 http://dx.doi.org/10.1680/jinam.15.00002
Paper 1500002
Exploring impacts of climate change on Received 10/02/2015; accepted 29/01/2016
Keywords: climate change/communications & control
UK’s ICT infrastructure
systems/safety & hazards
Fu, Horrocks and Winne

ICE Publishing: All rights reserved

Exploring impacts of climate

change on UK’s ICT
infrastructure
1 Gaihua Fu BSc, PhD 2 Lisa Horrocks BA, PhD
Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research, School of Civil Principal Consultant, Ricardo Energy & Environment, Harwell, Didcot,
Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Oxfordshire, UK
Tyne, UK (corresponding author: gaihua.fu@ncl.ac.uk) 3 Sarah Winne BA, MSc
Senior Consultant, Ricardo Energy & Environment, Harwell, Didcot,
Oxfordshire, UK

1 2 3

Information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure plays a critical role in many aspects of the society.
While ICTs contribute to climate-related responses and adaptive practices, much less is known about the impacts that
climate change may have on ICT itself. Drawing on knowledge in the literature and findings elicited from industrial
workshop conversations and case studies, this paper attempts to provide a review of available evidence of climate
impacts on the UK’s ICT infrastructure. This research shows that, although ICTs are resilient to climate impacts,
in part due to the rapid refresh rate of equipment, ICTs are vulnerable to a number of future climate risks. The
criticality of ICTs to other infrastructure sectors implies that any disruption to ICTs could result in multisectoral
cascade failures. This paper also explores the potential for strategies to adapt ICTs to be more resilient to extreme
weather and changes in climate, discusses some of the opportunities that climate change may offer and identifies
some areas for further research.

Introduction business (Clemente, 2013). From a business continuity perspective,

Information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure is
critically important to the society. An ICT system comprises
integrated networks, systems and components that enable the
transmission, receipt, capture, storage and manipulation of
information by users on and across electronic devices. ICT is a
relatively new but rapidly developing infrastructure sector. As
reported by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU,
2014), the UK is one of the world’s largest ICT markets. The
UK’s ICT industry is worth £58 billion annually (UK Trade &
Investment, 2014), and is ranked as the fifth in 2014 globally in
terms of development (ITU, 2014). There is a continued growth
in the uptake and spread of ICTs (Ofcom, 2014).
ICTs are central to the business-as-usual operation of every industry
and sector, and the contemporary world is highly reliant on ICTs
for social and leisure purposes, as well as work. The growing
demand for ICTs assumes that ICTs are always available. This
makes any disruptions to ICT service provision unacceptable, from
both work and social perspectives (Nogueira et al., 2014; Sterbenz
et al., 2010). With the high value of transaction rates per minute,
unplanned ICT downtime represents a significant financial risk to
it is likely that these risks are understood and planned for by larger
companies. However small to medium-sized companies and
individual consumers may not have systems in place to cope with
unplanned disruption to their ICT systems (Baglee et al., 2012).
Among other threats (e.g. terrorists and cyberattacks), ICTs are
potentially vulnerable to a number of weather- and climate-based
disruptions (Chołda et al., 2007; Rak, 2015). Risks from the
changing climate are of particular concern (Ospina et al., 2014).
The 2009 UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) identified the
main climate change variables as temperature, precipitation,
relative humidity and clouds and extremes of temperature and
precipitation (Jenkins et al., 2009; Murphy et al., 2009). Extreme
weather leading to floods or heatwaves is a particular concern.
The changing climate is expected to bring increases in both the
frequency and the severity of this kind of weather.
Changing climate already starts to cost the UK’s ICT sector. The
chief executive officer of the British telecommunication company
BT admitted that climate change is affecting his company, and he
revealed that extreme weather in the form of flooding and high

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 Infrastructure Asset Management
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winds has hit BT’s operations (Adams et al., 2014). The need to
understand climate risks to ICTs is acknowledged by the UK’s
National Adaptation Programme (Defra, 2009, 2013; Engineering
the Future, 2011), which recognised the priority to develop a
better understanding of climate risks to ICT service delivery and
their interdependencies with other sectors.
Research and studies to date mostly focus on the potential of ICTs
in tackling climate change impacts – that is, ICTs serve as enablers
of innovative approaches to mitigate, monitor and adapt to climate
change impacts (Kelly and Adolph, 2008; Ospina and Heeks,
2010). There is a limited amount of evidence about the specific
impacts that climate change may have on ICT infrastructure itself,
and published analysis is extremely rare, as recognised by Rak
(2015) and Ospina et al. (2014). Given the pace of development
and change in ICTs, new risks can emerge relatively quickly. For
example the increasing use of remotely held data and applications
offers simultaneously greater resilience (from the local disruption
of a single device failure) and greater potential risk (if network
connectivity fails). These trends bring both challenges and
opportunities for managing and planning resilience in ICTs.
This paper explores the effects of climate change on the UK’s
ICT sector. It aims to raise awareness of the need to design and
implement strategies for the sector to better prepare for, respond
to and adjust to the impacts of short- and long-term climatic
changes. This paper gives an overview of the impacts,
opportunities and challenges posed by climate change to sector
stakeholders. The study draws on a very limited literature, which
is substantially augmented by expert elicitation from ICT sector
expert workshop discussions and case studies. This paper presents
the key findings of the research, including the following: (a) The
UK’s ICT sector is inherently resilient and adaptable to climate
impacts to some extent, although this is not necessarily the case
at the level of an individual end user. (b) Providers and
consumers of ICTs will nevertheless need to consider adaptation,
because of the UK’s increasing dependence on ICTs and
increases in extreme weather events. (c) ICTs are vulnerable to a
number of current and future climate risks. (d) Climate impacts on
ICTs can have considerable cross-sectoral implications for
infrastructure and business. This paper also explores the potential
for strategies to adapt ICTs to be more resilient to extreme
weather and changes in climate, and identifies some of the
opportunities that these changes may offer. Finally, this paper
reflects on the gaps in the literature and identifies some priorities
for further research.
Identifying climate impacts on ICTs: previous
research and this study’s method
Given insufficient evidence and understanding of climate impacts
on ICTs, this study attempts to identify and synthesise current
knowledge and experience to provide an assessment of climate
impact risks in the UK’s ICT sector. This study draws its findings
from the latest research outcomes emerging in the literature as
well as the outcomes of an ICT sector expert workshop, with the
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Exploring impacts of climate change on
UK’s ICT infrastructure
Fu, Horrocks and Winne
aim to provide a snapshot of the current state of practices in the
area and lay a foundation for further research.
The authors have looked at a broad range of potential sources for
existing works and publications on climate resilience of ICTs,
including those from the academe, government, environmental
agencies and business organisations. They found that the literature
is rich in studies on scenarios of isolated random failures of ICT
components being the result of software errors or physical faults
(Chołda et al., 2007; Sterbenz et al., 2010), but the amount of
published literature on ICT resilience with respect to weather- and
climate-based disruptions is small and limited, as recognised by
Nogueira et al. (2014) and Rak (2015). Although the linkage
between ICTs and climate impacts is gaining increasing attention,
the research to date focuses mostly on the potential of ICTs
in tackling climate change impacts – for example, how ICTs
contribute to the abatement of carbon dioxide emissions, energy
efficiency, monitoring of climate-related patterns and events and
implementation of adaptive practices (Eakin et al., 2015; Kelly and
Adolph, 2008; Ospina and Heeks, 2010; Upadhyay and Bijalwan,
2015) – and much less is known about the impacts of climate
changes on ICTs and the adaptive strategies that the ICT sector
itself could adopt to better prepare for, respond to and adjust to
more frequent and intense climatic impacts (Ospina et al., 2014).
The importance of understanding climate impacts on ICTs has
just started to attract attention in recent years, and the need
to investigate these impacts has risen up the agenda of some
international organisations, governments and industry sectors. For
example, a specialised agency of UN, the ITU, has taken an action
to collaborate with global communities to address the climate
changes on ICTs. A working paper has been produced to give an
overview of the impacts, opportunities and challenges posed by
climate change to sector stakeholders (Ospina et al., 2014). The
study identifies existent and emerging adaptive measures and
provides suggested actions to strengthen the ICT sector’s approach
to adaptation. The study performed by Adams et al. (2014)
analyses the impacts of climate changes on ICTs and data centre
services. The study highlights a number of suggested adaptation
options from around the world, including some case studies of
early implementation actions by ICT companies to build resilience.
Some studies have been carried out to investigate the climate
impacts on ICTs in specific countries and regions (Horrocks et al.,
2010; Paulson, 2011; Steeves and Surminski, 2014; Wong and
Schuchard, 2011). In the paper of Jacob et al. (2011), an
assessment is carried out to analyse the climate impacts in the
New York State’s telecommunications sector, and suggests various
technical and strategic adaptation options. A unique contribution
of this study is that it explores the impacts on vulnerable
communities, such as those in rural areas or the lower-income,
elderly or disabled populations. It also demonstrates potential
climate impacts through a case study of historical extreme winter
storms. An independent study commissioned by the Australian
government is reported by Maunsell Australian Pty (2008). This
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 Infrastructure Asset Management
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study reviews the impacts of climate changes on ICT infrastructure
under seven different climate scenarios, for the 2030s, 2070s and
2100s. The report adopts an economic lens, describing the impacts
in terms of their effect on operational and capital expenditures.
The UK is one of countries that have a significant interest in
studying climate impacts on ICTs (Baglee et al., 2012; Carbon
Disclosure Project, 2012; Defra, 2013; Engineering the Future,
2011; Horrocks et al., 2010). Of particular interest are the findings
of an ICT expert workshop, on which many results of this study
are based. The workshop was undertaken as part of a UK
government programme for adapting national infrastructure (NI)
and is considered as one of the most comprehensive studies of its
kind on climate risks in the ICT sector, as recognised by Adams
et al. (2014). The description of the workshop is given in the
Supplementary Material, and the reader is referred to the papers
of Baglee et al. (2012) and Horrocks et al. (2010) for further
details of the workshop. The workshop engaged experts working
in the sector, from the academia, policymaking bodies/the
government, regulatory/standardisation bodies, technical fields/
networks, the services/distribution sector, and practitioners in
related sectors such as rail. Appropriate climate scenarios (based
on UKCP09) were developed to form the basis of discussion,
structured around the following key questions.
■ What are the future developments in ICT over the next 20 and
50 years or for longer term? What are the implications for
technical standards?
■ What challenges/opportunities do these present? For
operations, standards, supply chain (in particular ownership)
and reputation?
■ What risks (in general) will become present and/or increase?
What risks related to weather/climate will emerge or reduce?
■ How is resilience currently built into ICT infrastructure (and
plans for the future)?
■ How can resilience, in particular climate resilience, be
increased and barriers be overcome? What are the business/
economic challenges, and opportunities, that this will generate?
■ How does the regulatory regime enable/inhibit resilience?
The authors have explored the outcomes of the workshop to
investigate potential risks and possible solutions in the context of
the long-term future for the ICT sector in the UK. The results were
further augmented and supported with evidences that had been
elicited from published literature. The key findings of this study
are presented in the following sections, with ‘Impacts and risks
of climate changes on the UK’s ICTs’ focusing on the impacts of
climate change on ICTs in general and ‘Risk from cross-sectoral
interdependencies’ on the risk from cross-sectoral interdependencies.
Impacts and risks of climate changes on the
UK’s ICTs
This study suggests that the UK ICT infrastructure is inherently
resilient to climate change impacts. There are a few reasons for
this. Firstly, the majority of the components and devices typically
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Exploring impacts of climate change on
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Fu, Horrocks and Winne
used in the UK are also used in other parts of the world that
already experience environmental conditions beyond the range of
UKCP09. Provided that such components are appropriately
installed and maintained, they should accommodate the climate
conditions anticipated in the UK this century. Secondly, the
lifetime of many components is short compared to the timescales
of climate change, so there is time for adaptation into new
technologies to keep pace with climate change.
However, vulnerabilities do exist. The challenge is rooted not in
ICT devices themselves but in the environmental conditions that
surround them and the impact of weather events. For example
devices located below ground (such as cabling) are potentially
vulnerable to flooding from rivers, coastal storm surges and extreme
rainfall, rising water tables, water ingress (particularly during times
of snowmelt or flooding), subsidence caused by drought or flooding
and consequential risks arising from damage to other structures
(such as bridges) that support ICTs (Adams et al., 2014). Above
ground, structures (such as masts, antennae, switch boxes, aerials,
overhead wires and cables) are at risk from precipitation (water
ingress), wind, snow (weight), unstable ground conditions (flooding,
subsidence) and changes in humidity (Horrocks et al., 2010). High
humidity can lead to condensation and risk of water ingress and
short-circuiting of equipment (Engineering the Future, 2011). The
serviceable lifespan of some components may be affected by
increased environmental stress (high winds, temperatures).
These risks will evolve with changing climate. Extreme weather
events may increase in frequency or severity in future. There are
a wide variety of ways in which weather and climate changes
can affect ICT infrastructure. Table 1 summarises the expected
changes in climate under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) medium emissions scenario by the 2080s
(Murphy et al., 2009), as well as the potential impacts of these
changes on the UK’s ICTs as identified during this study. The
consequences of these climate impacts and the scale at which the
impact might be felt will be discussed.
Daily precipitation
Increases in extreme daily precipitation, including very wet days,
may have several negative effects on ICT infrastructure, including
increasing the risk of flooding to low-lying infrastructure
and underground facilities. It may result in increased erosion and
flood damage to transport structures that could expose cables.
Precipitation changes (rate of rainfall, size of raindrop and
whether precipitation falls as rain or snow) can affect the quality
of wireless services through impacts on wave propagation
(Sterbenz et al., 2013).
In the UK, a significant proportion of point-to-point data traffic is
over radio links. The majority of these links are engineered to
99·99% average annual availability, and so they fail for about
50 min a year in moderate rain rates of about 25 mm/h (Bacon,
2012; Paulson, 2010, 2011). There are clear increasing trends in
the incidence of these rain rates. It is likely that outage rates are
 Infrastructure Asset Management Exploring impacts of climate change on
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Fu, Horrocks and Winne

Climate impacts on ICTs Potential consequences

Climate factor Potential impact Degradation of Availability Quality Repair Business Health
infrastructure of services of and costs and
services recovery safety

Increase in Increased risk of overheating in data ⇩ ⇩ ⇩

maximum centres, exchanges, base stations
temperatures and so on
(and higher Increased heat-related health and ⇩ ⇩
frequency of safety risks to exposed workers (e.g.
‘very hot’ days) maintenance engineers, drivers and
staff in exchanges)
Increase in Location/density of wireless masts ⇩ ⇩ ⇩
average may become suboptimal since
temperatures wireless transmission is dependent
on temperature (refractive index)
Impact on quality of radio-frequency ⇩
propagation if vegetation type
changes in response to climate
Increase in Reduced costs of space heating in ⇧
minimum assets (data centres, exchanges and
temperatures so on) in winter
(fewer frost days Reduced impacts of snowfall on ⇧ ⇧ ⇧ ⇧
and less masts, antennae and so on,
snowfall) requiring less maintenance
Less frequent requirement to cope ⇧ ⇧ ⇧ ⇧ ⇧
with snowmelt water surge (flood)
problems
Increase in Increased risk of flooding of low- ⇩ ⇩ ⇩ ⇩
extreme daily lying infrastructure, access holes and
precipitation in underground facilities
winter (and Increased erosion or flood damage ⇩ ⇩ ⇩
higher frequency to transport structures, which may
of ‘very wet’ expose cables/trunk routes
days) Reduced quality of wireless service ⇩
with higher rainfall rates
Increased flood risk to assets located ⇩ ⇩ ⇩
in flood plains or urban
environments – for example data
centres
Increasing difficulty to repair faults ⇩ ⇩ ⇩ ⇩ ⇩
and restore service
Decrease in daily Increased risk of subsidence, ⇩ ⇩
precipitation in reduced stability of foundations and
summer tower structures

Updated from Horrocks et al. (2010)

⇩, a potential negative effect; ⇧, a potential positive effect; ⇳, the direction of the effect is uncertain

Table 1. Potential climate impacts on ICTs (continued on next page)

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Fu, Horrocks and Winne

Climate impacts on ICTs Potential consequences

Climate factor Potential impact Degradation of Availability Quality Repair Business Health
infrastructure of services of and costs and
services recovery safety

Changes in Changes in storm/wind-loading ⇳ ⇳ ⇳ ⇳

storminess and damage to all above-ground
wind transmission infrastructure
Lightning strike damage to ⇳ ⇳ ⇳ ⇳
transmitters
Rising sea levels Increased saline corrosion of coastal ⇩ ⇩
(particularly in infrastructure (broadcasting towers
south-east and and so on)
eastern England) Increased risk of coastal erosion and ⇩ ⇩ ⇩ ⇩ ⇩
and increase in coastal flooding of infrastructure in
storm surges vulnerable areas
Potential change in reference datum ⇩
for some telecommunication/satellite
transmission calculations
Changes in Changes in corrosion rates ⇳ ⇳
(absolute) Changes in requirements for ⇧
humidity dehumidification to maintain internal
environments within tolerance
ranges of system devices

Table 1. Continued

increasing dramatically in the UK – for example, doubling or
tripling each decade (Paulson and Al-Mreri, 2011). The effect
of this is likely to be minor as outages tend to be short – for
example, less than a minute or two – and effect services are over
a small area. The exceptions are at the edges of networks (e.g.
links to Scottish islands) and for multihop links where outage by
one link effects all downstream nodes.
Extreme temperature
Heatwaves increase the risk of overheating in older buildings
(such as Victorian exchanges) and lead to increased demand for
cooling in data centres (Adams et al., 2014; Wong and Schuchard,
2011). Extreme temperatures bring potential health and safety
issues for outdoor or exposed workers (Wong and Schuchard,
2011). Increases in temperature can limit the range of wireless
signals, particularly at extremely high temperatures (Adams et al.,
2014). The failure rate of an electrical component increases
exponentially with temperature (Mishra et al., 2004).
Lightning strikes also pose a threat to transmitters (Engineering
the Future, 2011).
Spatial patterns
The exposure of ICT structures to weather-related damage and
disruption depends on their location (Neumayer et al., 2011).
Infrastructure such as above-ground cables and transmitters
located in the south of the UK will be more exposed to higher
temperatures than in the north, because of spatial pattern of
climate change (Murphy et al., 2009). While individual structures
may be locally exposed to increasing risks from precipitation,
flooding, heatwaves and storms, the wide spatial distribution
and inherent interconnectivity of ICTs helps to ensure that
the network at the national level is robust. Very few impacts are
likely to affect the entire national ICT network, and those that
do are related to probably minor changes in the quality of
signal resulting from temperature effects on radio-frequency
transmission (Horrocks et al., 2010).

Windstorms At the local level, however, the impact of extreme weather is

Severe windstorms around the UK have become more frequent in
the past few decades (although not above that seen in the 1920s)
(Murphy et al., 2009). High winds and storms have the potential
to knock down masts and damage above-ground assets, including
the power lines supplying energy to the sector (Egli, 2014).
more significant, particularly in rural areas, locations at the end of
a network line or areas served by only one or two networks. Mast
sharing in remoter and rural areas may increase vulnerability due
to the dependence of the local network on only one structure.
From the perspective of individual businesses, climate change

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may therefore pose some additional pressure. Such risks are

more significant for smaller businesses and remote workers Category Dependence on ICTs
(Defra, 2012).
Business as usual Customer transactions (including
electronic banking)
Indirect impacts and risks
Staff-to-staff communication (e-mail,
Indirect impacts on ICTs can arise from climate-related disruption
phone call, videoconferencing)
to provision of critical ICT materials and resources within the
Financial management
UK. The occurrence of extreme weather events can prevent staff
E-commerce
from either reaching their normal place of work or attending sites
Ticketing and billing systems
to repair or restore failed components of the infrastructure (such
Customer/passenger information systems
as base stations, antennae and exchanges), extending downtime.
Healthcare provision
Extreme weather events can also generate an increased use
Automated teller machines
(transmission volumes) of the ICT infrastructure as greater
Control systems Traffic signalling
numbers work from home or otherwise at a distance from their
Traffic management
normal place of work. This increases the demand for reliable and
Navigation (waterborne, satellite- and
resilient ICT networks.
land-based)
Vehicles – road and rail
Global interdependence
Aircraft and marine vessels
The impacts of climate change will also be felt around the world,
Rail signalling
with different risks likely to be significant in different regions
Air traffic management
in the very near term, according to the IPCC (2014). With
Supply chain management
networks and services depend increasingly on international
Logistics (despatch and delivery of goods)
partners, suppliers, materials and, to some extent, skills and
Real-time delivery management and
expertise (Adams et al., 2014), the effects of climate change
reporting
around the world provide a further source of indirect impacts on
Supervisory control and data acquisition
the UK’s ICTs.
Remote management of pumps and
switches in network
This international interdependence extends not only to the global
Water distribution
supply chains supporting provision of materials and devices but
Energy generation and distribution (in
also to the hosting, storage and transmission of data. For example
particular nuclear and smart grids)
many online and telephone services critical to business and leisure
ICT network management
in the UK are hosted at data or call centres physically located
Incident Policing, fire and rescue, ambulance (air
outside the UK. Rising sea levels and extreme weather events may
management wave)
affect the operation of data centres and service centres in low-lying
Transport delay rectification
areas, such as the Netherlands, and vulnerable areas in the
Natural emergencies
subcontinent of India. Raw materials (such as pine for telegraph
Man-made emergencies
poles and rare or precious metals) and components are sourced
from or manufactured in different countries and may face Source: Horrocks et al. (2010)
increasing climate impacts on their production and transport.
Supporting architectures and infrastructure, such as fibre-optic Table 2. Critical dependencies on ICT
networks, are routed across the world and are potentially
vulnerable to a wider range of climate impacts (Munich RE, 2012).

Risk from cross-sectoral interdependencies
The UK’s NI and wider economy are heavily reliant on ICT
networks and services for their continued daily operation. For
example ICTs provide a critical operational service for much of
the UK transport infrastructure, from road information on the
motorway network to air traffic control. ICTs also provide a
critical operational service for much of the UK energy
infrastructure, both at individual plants and across networks,
where it supports supply and demand forecasting and rerouting of
gas and electricity supplies through the transmission and
distribution networks. Listed in Table 2 are the key dependencies
on ICTs identified in the expert workshop. The criticality of
ICTs implied that any disruption to ICT service provision can have
knock-on effects and in extreme cases has the potential to result in
multisectoral ‘cascade failures’. Resilience in the ICT systems as a
whole is therefore critical to the continued operation of the other
sectors (Defra, 2012; Parandehgheibi et al., 2014).
On the other hand, the ICT sector has a relatively low dependency
on other sectors for its continuing operation, but is completely
dependent on energy (AEA, 2009). Any climate-related disruption
to critical energy supplies has the potential to cause multiple
and wide-ranging impacts on ICT networks. For example, high
temperatures during summer could increase the demand for

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energy for the cooling of buildings, including data centres, while
also affecting energy infrastructure such as through the derating
of power lines. Increased humidity may also lead to increased
degradation of energy equipment and infrastructure (McColl et
al., 2012). With increased codependence of power and data on the
same lines, this is a further risk for ICTs.
Unfortunately, the fragmentation of delivery and governance of the
UK NI means that ‘no-one has any responsibility or accountability
for looking across the NI as a whole, i.e. across the network of
networks’ and ‘there is little or no knowledge of vulnerabilities and
risk arising from interdependencies across the NI which means that
investment in adequate resilience will always be low priority’
(CST, 2009). The problems have attracted a few research studies
to investigate and quantify the risks incurred from cross-sectoral
interdependencies. For example Buldyrev et al. (2010) highlighted
the cascading failure risks of a coupled ICT and energy system in
Italy. Fu et al. (2012, 2014) showed that internetwork dependencies
can lead to geographically unconstrained failure and varying the
nature of cross-network dependency can modify the behaviour of
an interdependent system and, hence, change the conditions for its
safe operation (Figure 1).
Management of climate change impacts and
risks
In this section, the four main areas for managing climate change
impacts and risks are characterised, and some opportunities
presented to the ICT sector due to climate change are identified.
Physical structures and networks
While there is inherent resilience available from the multiple
networks that make up ICTs, there is potential for resilience to
be enhanced to cope with localised extreme weather hazards
(Agarwal et al., 2015). The diversity of systems and their
interoperability must be maintained or improved to ensure a level
Resultant failure (% network failure): %
100
Single network
80
60
40
20
0
20
40
60
0
Hazard magnitude (% network A disrupted): %
Figure 1. Performance comparison of a single and an
interdependent network (updated from Fu et al., 2012). The
performance is measured here in terms of remaining largest
network component
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Exploring impacts of climate change on
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Fu, Horrocks and Winne
of redundancy sufficient to deal with local events that may rapidly
put pressure on, for example, mobile networks at times of crisis.
The most exposed and/or sensitive ICT structures can be
addressed through improvements in spatial planning and
environmentally appropriate design, just as in any other sector.
For areas and locations that do not receive a wide range of
alternative network coverage, further strategic or dynamic nodes
could be introduced for specific locations where interconnectivity
needs to be allowed under disaster conditions, balanced against a
cost-benefit analysis (Minh et al., 2014).
New technology
The modular approach to ICT infrastructure design, coupled with
a rapid refresh cycle, facilitates incremental adaptation, allowing
progressively more climate-resilient components to be integrated.
With respect to devices, there would be only limited benefit
from revising technical standards or product specifications as a
precautionary response to climate change. In most cases (satellite
systems being a significant exception), the product life is short
relative to climate change. Product designs (and accompanying
standards) can be expected to ‘evolve’ in new generations of
devices, in response to a range of drivers, including experiences
of weather events. The pace of technological change in the ICT
sector enables this flexibility, but to maximise the potential
for adaptation, greater climate awareness in the research and
development parts of the sector may be required.
Whole trends in the sector may be tuned for climate adaptation
benefits. Advances in cloud computing provide unique
opportunities for enhancing resilience (Harter et al., 2014; Souza
Couto et al., 2014) by, for example, enabling computational load
to be transferred from site to site around the globe, to avoid areas
of increased local weather risk, but this will depend on good
early warnings and even higher maintenance of connectivity with
end users.
Handling interdependencies
Resilience in other sectors dependent on ICTs would be improved
Interdependent
through increased awareness of the potential risks to ICT structures
and networks and increased collaboration and engagement around
specific issues (Parandehgheibi et al., 2014). Conversely, ICT
companies are generally well practised at managing risk in their
own sector, but may be less effective at considering the implications
of risks in related sectors (e.g. failures in the energy sector that
affect the ICT sector and extreme weather impacts on road that
affect maintenance and repair of telecommunications infrastructure).
There is a role for a knowledgeable ICT sector to enable the
80
100
analysis and management of climate risk throughout service supply
chains and to educate customers about the potential risks and
opportunities that a changing climate might present (Eakin et al.,
2015; Kelly and Adolph, 2008; Upadhyay and Bijalwan, 2015).
Procurement procedures could be used to demand an improved
level of climate resilience, which emphasises continuity of service
 Infrastructure Asset Management
Volume 3 Issue 1
rather than compensation for disruption. Organisational protocols
for system backup and information security (such as business
continuity standards) already exist and can provide resilience for
both providers and consumers of ICTs against disruption from
climate events.
Contingency planning and responding to extreme
weather events
The current approach to dealing with weather disruption seems
to be to accept that the risk will occur and then respond to
its consequences, rather than to be proactive and to reduce or
avoid the risk occurring. With increasingly severe and frequent
extreme weather, this may become expensive and unsatisfactory
(Mukherjee et al., 2014). More comprehensive contingency
planning for a range of climate hazards and responses could
be supported by wider use of weather event early-warning
systems, linking infrastructure providers and operators directly
with the Met Office and the Environment Agency (for flood, storm
and heat warnings). Better collaboration with local authorities may
help to ensure a more efficient and effective recovery phase after a
weather disruption. Good practice in business continuity should
ensure that organisations can develop suitable contingency
arrangements for weather-related extreme events (alongside plans
for other natural disasters and terrorism incidents). Arrangements
may include access to emergency power and backup data centres.
Opportunities
The increased risk of climate extremes presents an opportunity for
developing rapid deployment business for ICT firms that can offer
support during disasters. ICT has an important role to play in
implementing climate-related responses and adaptive practices
(Eakin et al., 2015; Kelly and Adolph, 2008; Upadhyay and
Bijalwan, 2015). For example there is likely to be growth of
demand for products and services to minimise business disruption
through business recovery and continuity. Increased demand
is expected for solutions that help customers understand and
protect themselves from physical risks of climate change while
maintaining and enhancing communications capability. The
development and provision of equipment and services to measure,
monitor, mitigate and respond to climate change impacts, such as
increased satellite monitoring, and to provide emergency and
disaster warnings is expected.
ICT could have a truly significant effect on reducing the use of
energy and thus greenhouse-gas emissions in changing climate. For
example, ICT in the form of videoconferencing eliminates the need
for travel, and intelligent transport (based on vehicles, roads and
traffic control centres equipped with ICTs) can not only improve
safety but also cut the use of fuel. And when it comes to electricity
supplies, by avoiding wastage and making distribution more
efficient, smart grids could reduce demand substantially.
Barriers to adaptation
A number of challenges and barriers to adaptation in ICTs have
been identified. These include the following.
Downloaded by [ Newcastle University] on [18/05/16]. Copyright © ICE Publishing, all rights reserved.
Exploring impacts of climate change on
UK’s ICT infrastructure
Fu, Horrocks and Winne
■ Low awareness of climate change risk: The ICT industry is
well practised at managing risk in their own sector. More is
required to consider the implications of risks in related sectors
and to manage risks throughout service supply chains.
■ Current business model: The ICT infrastructure is designed to
offer the resilience to cope with the normal spread of weather
events. There is a need to shift the balance of investment
towards systems that are resilient to future range of climate
conditions.
■ Business case for action on climate risk: There is a lack
of certainty surrounding the magnitude and likelihood
of potential climate change impacts. The evidence base
that assesses recent experiences of weather events in the
sector is limited. There is therefore an underdeveloped
‘business case’ for providers to invest in enhancing
climate resilience.
■ Ownership and sharing: There is an increasing trend towards
sharing of elements of the infrastructure by several service
providers. This sharing needs to become fully transparent to
service users such that they understand their risks and, hence,
take individual mitigation action and spread their risks.
■ Scale effects: The current approach to strengthening resilience
has focused on regional resilience. The increasing virtual
nature of ICT services means that many critical ICTs may be
physically located outside the UK and, hence, may be more
difficult to protect.
Conclusions and discussion
The ICT sector continues to grow and evolve rapidly. Given the pace
of development and change in ICT, new risks or solutions can
emerge relatively quickly, and additional skills and capabilities
will be needed in order to enhance climate resilience of ICT
infrastructure. This paper synthesises the current research and
practice in the sector to address the gap in knowledge relating to
climate change and its potential impacts on the ICT sector. This
study found that the UK’s ICT sector is inherently resilient to climate
impacts. Providers and consumers of ICTs will nevertheless need to
consider adaptation, because of the UK’s increasing dependence on
ICTs and increases in extreme weather events. This study reveals
that ICTs are vulnerable to a number of current and future climate
risks, and climate impacts on ICTs can have considerable cross-
sectoral implications for infrastructure and business.
This study has identified a number of key areas for further
research and development, including the following.
■ A more detailed follow-up assessment of the climate change
risks presented in this paper, including an objective
prioritisation and identification of the actors responsible for
each risk. This would enable more concrete identification of
the role that the government will need to play in improving
climate resilience in the ICT sector.
■ A review of evidence of the impact of past weather events on
ICT infrastructure. This would start to strengthen the business
case for action on adaptation.
49
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Volume 3 Issue 1
■ Further research into how absolute humidity may change
under climate projections (as this is relevant to optimising the
environmental conditions for IT devices) and examining
potential changes in wireless signal based on temperature and
rain rates in the UK Climate Projections.
■ Spatial analysis of ICT climate vulnerabilities across the UK,
focusing on the identification of critical nodes vulnerable to
climate hazard damage.
■ Distributional analysis of potential climate impacts on ICTs
(who suffers most and who pays for greater resilience).
■ Vulnerability of ICT networks and supply chains outside the
UK, The full range of international climate risks associated
with the offshoring of data and applications needs research
and evaluation.
■ Systems-based research, in conjunction with other NI sectors,
to understand the acknowledged interdependencies, and how
best to manage weather risks that can lead to cascade failures.
Alongside these, further policy-oriented research would be
welcome. There is a wide range of policy options that could be
considered to incentivise adaptation in ICT (including support for
innovation in research, funding for demonstration projects, public
sector co-investment in adaptation measures, measures to embed
climate risk in the current market and regulatory incentives).
Scoping and appraisal of these options is needed. A policy study
to review the potential role of government, the regulators and
existing market structures in addressing climate risks in the ICT
sector may be helpful.
Acknowledgements
This paper is based on the work done for the Living with
Environmental Change Infrastructure Report Card commissioned
by the Natural Environment Research Council and the
Environment Agency. Gaihua Fu is funded under an Engineering
and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) Resilient
Networks (RESNET) project (EP/I035781/1).
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