Journal of Environmental Management (1983) 16, 35-43 An Optimum Sampling Design and Power Tests for Environmental Biologists Brock B. Bernstein EcoAnalysis Incorporated 221 E, Matilija, Suite A Ojai, California 93023 and James Zalinski 2104 Bataan Number 2, Redondo Beach, California 90278, U.S.A. Received 29 October 1981 We present en optimum sampling desiga for the detection of environmental impact. Unlike other approaches, we stress the importance of replication through time, particularly in variable enviroameats, We provide a statistical model and a Fationale for incorporating the variability between sampling locations over time into the error term of the analysis, together with the instantaneous replicate variability, As a result, a determination of statistical significance will correspond ‘more closely to biological significance. The sampling design incorporates two levels Of replication, instantaneous at a single time and place, and over time. These levels Of replication must be optimized, depending on their relative variability and the ‘marginal cost of collecting each kind of sample. Finally, we review a power test procedure to determine the number of replicates necessary to detect a change of a predicted magnitude. We feel that environmental monitoring is an important source of feedback ‘about the results of alternative strategies of resource utilization. As such, it is an ‘essential part of any attempt to use or develop natural resources wisely. The Concept of a predicted change is central to the design of successful and cost effective mouitoring programs. These programs should be designed, from inception, to have a specified probability of detecting a predicted change of | specified magnitude, Without this design, monitoriog programs run the risk, on the one hand, of having little or no chance of detecting anything but catastrophic ‘Changes, or, oa the other, of sampling far in excess of what is necessary to test Feasonable hypotheses. We have integrated relevant ecological, statistical, and management concerns in the presentation of methods to avoid these problems in the design of environmental monitoring programs. Keywords: Eavicoamental impact, monitoring design, sampling design, power tests, optimization 3 (0301-4797-85/010035-+09 $03.00/0 © 1983 Academie Press Inc. (Loadon) Limited36 - ‘Optimum sampling design and power tests 1, Introduction ‘The development of industrial civilization and the rapid growth of the world population have stressed the links between what Hall (1975) calls the industriosphere and the bio- sphere, and led to an increase in the severity and ubiquity of detrimental impacts on the environment (for example, deforestation and depletion of topsoils, pollution of ground water supplies, the accumulation of toxic chemical wates, overfishing, and potential ‘world-wide climatic changes induced by the combustion of fossil fuels). In this context, the intelligent management of man's interactions with his environment is of vital impor- tance. Holling (1978) argues that such management must be flexible and adaptive in order to allow for the unavoidable uncertainty involved in our interactions with nature, ‘A key clement in any adaptive process, and particularly the adaptive management described by Holling, is the amount and quality of information available about the results of various alternative strategies. Environmental impact studies thus play an important role as an information feed-back mechanism in attempts to utilize and develop natural resources wisely. ‘The last ten years have seen an increase in the number of environmental impact and monitoring studies performed, maay of them in response to statutory requirements, and they are now a familiar part of the decision-making process, as well as a frequent focus of litigation. Unfortunately, much of the time and money devoted to this work is wasted on studies that lack specific testable hypotheses and/or make use of inappropriate sampling designs and replication. These studies run the risk, on the one hand, of having little or no chance of detecting anything but catastrophic changes, or, on the other, of sampling far in excess of what is necessary to test reasonable hypotheses. Given the stresses on the environment mentioned above, it is more important than ever that We have valid estimates of their character and magnitude. One way to accomplish this validity is to ensure that environmental impact and monitoring studies are designed, from inception, to have a specified probability of detecting a predicted change of a specified magaitude. We have receatly been involved in designing biological monitoring programs to detect the effects of a nuclear power plant along the open coast of Southern California. ‘We found that, while publications such as Green (1979) were of immense help at the conceptual level, many problems of vital importance to the practising environmental ecologist were not considered. Two of the most important of these, in our experience, ‘were the temporal variability of natural systems (which can occur on many different scales), and the guide-lines and procedures involved in performing power analyses to determine required sample sizes in designs with more than one level of replication. This paper is, therefore, the one we wish we could have read a year ago. In it, we review ‘methods that provide: (1) a simple statistical model for detection of significant impact; (2) a method for optimizing the intensity of sampling at two important levels of replication; and () a power test procedure to determine the number of replicates necessary to detect a change of predicted magnitude, ‘The power test procedure, as we present it, requires an a priori determination of what constitutes a biologically significant impact. Too often, conclusions about the presence for absence of an environmental impact are made based only on whether or not a statistically significant change has been detected. This approach is inappropriate becauseB.B, Bernstein and J. Zalinskt - a the size of detectable change depends greatly on the intensity of sampling. Thus, poorly funded and/or designed studies will detect no “significant” change, and studies with intensive sampling will ad evea small changes to be “significant”. We feel strongly that a clear distinction must be made between biological and statistical significance (Sharma 4t al, 1976). The environmental biologist and/or resource manager should estimate, before the impact occurs, what, in their judgment, constitutes a biologically significant impact, and then design a sampling program with a specified probability (power) of detecting this change at a given level of statistical significance. Only when the probabil ties and costs of making borh type I and type II errors are made explicit is it possible to make an informed decision concerning the worth of proposed impact studies It may be that the power tests indicate that a biologically significant change cannot be detected with the available resources. At this point, a decision can be made whether to do another type of study (see Green, 1979) or no study at all. The procedures we present increase the range of options available to the environmental biologist and/or resource manager, and indicate whether a particular study has a good chance of providing the desired information before resources are comimitted. 2. Statistical model and sampling design Green (1979) describes an optimal impact study design, and emphasizes (p. 70) that it must contain controls in both space and time for the predicted impact. “This is so because evidence for impact effects on the biological community must be based on changes in the impact area that did not occur in the control area. Ifthe spatial control is missing and only before- and after-impact samples from an impacted area are available one runs the risk that a significant change may be unrelated to the impact. The ‘change might have occurred anyway. A schematic of this optimal design is drawn below: Impact Control Before After Green (1979) describes possible elaborations of this basic design, in which more than one site in each location, more than one time ia each condition, and more than one instantaneous replicate at each place and time may be sampled. Tn the simple design above, however, as well as in elaborations of it, the criterion for documentation of a detectable impact isa statistically significant interaction effect, in the analysis of variance, between location (Impact vs Control) and condition (Before vs After). To start, we assume that sample data conform to the model: Yormugteg: @ where yi represents an abundance measure of the dependent variable of interest taken