02 Introduction To Simulation

Lecture 1 What is Simulation?
• The Oxford American Dictionary (1980):

INTRODUCTION TO – Simulation is a way “to reproduce the conditions of a
situation, as by means of a model, for study or
SIMULATION testing or training, etc.”

• For our p
purposes,
p , we are interested in
reproducing the operational behavior of dynamic
Winda Nur Cahyo, ST., MT.
systems.
Faculty of Industrial Technology
Islamic University of Indonesia • The model that will be using is a computer
winda.nurcahyo@staff.uii.ac.id model.
winda.nurcahyo@yahoo.com (YM, FB)
Website: www.teknik-industri.com
• Simulation can be defined as the imitation of a
dynamic system using a computer model.
Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 1 Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 2
• In practice,
What simulation … – Simulation is performed using commercial
simulation software.
• Schriber (1987) – Performance statistics are gathered during
– Simulation is “the modeling of a process or the simulation
system in such a way that the model mimics – Modern simulation software provides a
the response
p of the actual system
y to events realistic, g
graphical
p animation of the system
y
that take place over time.” being modeled.
• By studying the behavior of the model, – During the simulation, the user can
interactively adjust the animation speed and
insight about the behavior of the actual change model parameter values to do “what-
system can be gained. if” analysis on the fly.
– State-of-the art simulation technology
provides optimization capability
• This lecture focuses primarily on discrete- Why Simulate?

event simulation, which models the effects of • Simulation provides a way to validate whether or
the events in a system as they occur over not the best decisions are being made.
time. • Simulation avoid the expensive, time-
consuming, and disrupted nature of traditional
• Discrete-event simulation employs statistical trial-and-error techniques.
methods for generating random behavior and • The power of simulation lies in the fact that it
estimating
ti ti model d l performance.
f provides
id a methodth d off analysis
l i ththatt iis nott only
l
formal and predictive, but is capable of
• These methods are sometimes referred to as accurately predicting the performance of a
Monte Carlo methods because of their system.
similarity to the probabilistic outcomes found • By using a computer to model a system before it
in games of chances. is built or to test operating policies before they
are actually implemented, many of the pitfalls
can be avoided
1
• The characteristics of simulation that make it such a
powerful planning and decision-making tool:
Doing Simulation
– captures system interdependence • Simulation is nearly always performed as a part
– accounts for variability in the system of a larger process of system design or process
– is versatile enough to model any system improvement.
– shows behavior over time
• Alternative solutions are generated and
– is less costly, time-consuming, and disruptive that
experimenting on the actual system
evaluated,, and the best solution is selected and
– provides information on multiple performance measures
implemented.
– is visually appealing and engages people’s interest • Simulation comes into play during the evaluation
– provides results that are easy to understand and phase.
communicate • Simulation is an experimentation tool in which
– runs in compressed, real, or even delayed time a computer model of a new or existing system is
– forces attention to detail in a design created for the purpose of conducting
experiments.
Doing Simulation … Doing Simulation ….

Simulation provides a virtual method for doing • Doing simulation talks about “the process
system experimentation
of designing a model of a real system and
conducting experiments with this model”.
• Conducting experiments on a model
reduces the time, cost, and disruption of
experimenting on the actual system.
– Simulation is a virtual prototyping tool for
demonstrating proof of concept.
The process of
Doing Simulation …..
simulation experimentation
• The procedure for doing simulation follows START FORMULATE A HYPOTHESIS
the scientific method of:
– formulating a hypothesis,
DEVELOP A SIMULATION
– setting up an experiment,
experiment MDODEL
– testing the hypothesis through
experimentation RESUME A SIMULATION
EXPERIMENT
– drawing conclusions about the validity of the
hypothesis. NO
YES HYPOTHESIS
STOP
CORRECT?
2
Use of Simulation Use of Simulation ………
• Simulation began to be used in • The surge in popularity of computer
commercial applications in 1960s. simulation:
– Initial models were usually programmed in – Increased awareness and understanding of
FORTRAN
FORTRAN. simulation technology.
technology
• Only in the last couple of decades has – Increased availability, capability, and ease of
simulation gained popularity as a decision- use of simulation software.
making tool in manufacturing and service – Increased computer memory, processing
industries speeds, especially of PCs.
– Declining computer hardware and software
13
costs. 14
Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com
Typical Applications of When Simulation is

Simulation Appropriate
• Work-flow planning • Throughput analysis • Not all system problems that could be
• Capacity planning • Productivity improvement solved with the aid of simulation should be
• Cycle time reduction • Layout analysis
solved using simulation,
• Staff and resource • Line balancing
planning
l i • Batch size optimization • It is important to select the right tool for the
• Work prioritization • Production scheduling task.
• Bottleneck analysis • Resource scheduling • Simulation has certain limitations of which
• Quality improvement • Maintenance scheduling one should be aware before making a
• Cost reduction • Control system design
• Inventory reduction
decision to apply it to a given situation.
When Simulation is Appropriate Qualification for Doing

….. Simulation
• Participants in the simulation project include
• As a general guideline, simulation is modeler, decision maker, and process owner.
appropriate if
• A certain degree of knowledge and skill:
– An operational (logical or quantitative) decision is
– Project management
being made.
– Communication
– The process being analyzed is well defined and
– System engineering
repetitive.
– Statistical analysis and design of experiments
– Activities and events are interdependent and variable.
– Modeling principles and concepts
– The cost impact of the decision is greater than the – Basic programming and computer skills
cost of doing the simulation.
– Training on one or more simulation products
– The cost of experiment on the actual system is – Familiarity with the system being investigated
greater than the cost of simulation.
3
Economic Justification of
• Savings from simulation are realized by
Simulation identifying and eliminating problems and
• Cost is always important issues when inefficiencies.
considering the use of any software tool and
• Cost is reduced by eliminating overdesign and
simulation is no exception.
removing excessive safety factors.
• Simulation should not use if the cost exceeds
the expected benefits
benefits. • One of the difficulties in developing an economic
• This means that both the costs and the benefits justification for simulation is the fact that it is
should be carefully assessed. usually not known in advance how much savings
• The use of simulation is often prematurely will be realized.
dismissed due to the failure to recognize the • One way to assess in advance the economic
potential benefits and savings it can produce. benefit of simulation is to assess the risk of
making poor design and operational decisions.
Economic Justification of Simulation Cost of making changes at subsequent stages

…… of system development
• The real savings from a simulation come
from allowing to make mistake and work
out design errors on the model rather than
on the actual system
system.
• Simulation helps avoid many of the
downstream costs associated with poor
decision that are made up front.
Comparison of cumulative system costs with

and without simulation
System Approach
Minggu ke 1 bagian 2
4
System Definition • Examples of systems:
– Traffic systems
• A system is defined as a collection of – Political systems
elements that function together to achieve – Economic systems
– Manufacturing systems
a desired goal.
– Service systems
• Key points include:
• Main focus of our subject
– A system consists of multiple elements.
– manufacturing and service systems that
– These elements are interrelated and work in process materials, information, and people.
cooperation.
– A system exists for the purpose of achieving
specific objectives.
Manufacturing System Service System

• Manufacturing systems: • Service systems:
– Small job shops – Health care facilities
– Machining cells – Call centers
– Large production facilities – Amusement parks
– Assembly lines – Public transportation systems
– Warehousing – Restaurant
– Distribution – Bank
– Supply chain systems – etc
Processing Systems System Elements

• Both manufacturing and service systems • From a simulation perspective, a system
may be termed processing systems. consists of entities, activities, resources,
– They process items through a series of controls.
activities
activities.. • The elements define the who,
who what,
what where,
where
• Processing systems: when, and how of entity processing.
– Artificial (human-made)
– Dynamic (elements interact overtime)
– Usually stochastic (they exhibit random
behavior)
5
System : Input-Output Box Entities
• items processed through the system such as
products, customers, and documents.
• divided into:
• human or animate (customers, patients, etc.)
• inanimate (parts, documents, bins, etc.)
• intangible (calls, electronic mail, etc.)
• [For most manufacturing and service systems]
discrete items.
• [For some production systems: continuous
systems] nondiscrete substance
• Example: oil refineries, paper mills
Activities Resources
• the tasks performed in the system (directly or
indirectly) in the processing of entities.
• Servicing a customer – the means by which activities are performed.
• cutting a part on machine – provide the supporting facilities, equipment,
• repairing a piece of equipment
and personnel for carrying out activities.
• consume time and often involve the use of
– can constrain processing by limiting the rate
resources
at which processing can take place.
• classified as
– have characteristics, e.g. capacity, speed,
• entity processing (check-in, treatment, inspection, fabrication,
etc.) cycle time, and reliability.
• entity and resource movement (forklift travel, riding in an
elevator, etc.)
• resource adjustments, maintenance, and repairs (machine
setups, copy machine repair, etc.)
Resources Controls
– dictate how, when, and where activities are
– can be categorized as: performed.
• Human or animate (operators, doctors, – impose order on the system.
maintenance personnel, etc.)
– [at the highest level] consists of schedules,
• Inanimate (equipment, tooling, floor space, etc.)
plan and policies
plan, policies.
• Intangible (information, electrical power, etc.)
– [at the lowest level] take the forms of written
– also can be classified as
procedures and machine control logic.
• dedicated or shared
• permanent or consumable
– [at all levels] provide the information and
• mobile or stationary
decision logic for how the system should
operate.
6
System Complexity
Controls
• Elements of a system operate with one another
in ways that often result in complex interactions.
– Examples: • Unaided human intuition is not very good at
• Routing sequences analyzing and understanding complex systems.
• Production plans • Inability of the human mind to grasp real-world
complexity is called as “the principle of bounded
• Work schedules rationality” (Herbert Simon)
Simon).
• Task prioritization • This principle states that “the capacity of human
mind for formulating and solving complex
• Control software problem is very small compared with the size of
• Instruction sheets problem whose solution is required for
objectively rational behavior in the real world, or
even for a reasonable approximation to such
objective rationality (Simon, 1957).
System Complexity System Complexity

The degree of analytical difficulty increases
• is a primary function of two factors: exponentially as the number of interdependencies
– Interdependencies between elements so that and random variables increase.
each element affects other elements.
– Variability in element behavior that produces
uncertainty.
System Performance Metrics Key operational metrics

• Metrics are measures used to assess the
performance of a system. • Describe the effectiveness and efficiency of
• At the highest level of an organization or manufacturing and service systems:
business, metrics measure overall performance – Flow time
in terms of profits, revenues, cost relative to – Utilization
budget,
g return on assets, and so on.
– Value added time
Value-added
– Such metrics are inherently lagging, disguise low-
level performance, and are reported only periodically – Waiting time
• From an operational standpoint, it is more – Flow rate
beneficial to track such factors as time, quality, – Inventory or queue levels
quantity, efficiency, and utilization. – Yield
– These operational metrics reflect immediate activity – Customer responsiveness
and are directly controllable
– Variance
– They drive the higher financially related metrics.
7
System Variables
System Variables
• Designing a new system or improving an existing system
requires more than simply identifying the elements and
performance goals of the system. • Decision variables
• It requires an understanding of how system elements – called as input factors or independent
affect each other and overall performance objectives. variables
• Three types
yp of system
y variable must be understand: – changing the values of a system’s
system s
– Decision variables independent variables affects the behavior of
– Response variables the system
– State variables
– controllable or uncontrollable
– controllable variable Æ decision variables
Response Variables State Variables

• Response variables • State variables
– called as performance or output variables
– State variables are the status of the system at
– measure performance of the system in any specific point in time.
response to particular decision variable
– Response variables are often summaries of
settings.
state variable changes over time.
– In an experiment, the response variable is the
– State variables are dependent variables.
dependent variable.
– The goal in system planning is to find the right
values or settings of decision variables that
give the desired response value.
System Optimization System Optimization

• Optimization is finding the right setting for • A typical objective in an optimization
decision variables that best meets problem for a manufacturing or service
performance objectives. systems:
p
• Optimization seeks the best combination – minimizing costs
of decision variable values that either
– maximizing flow rate
minimizes or maximizes some objective
functions such as costs or profits. • Optimization problems may include
• An objective function is a response constraints that limits the values of
variable of the system. decision variables.
8
System Optimization System Approach
• In some instances, there are problems of • Due to departmentalization and
conflicting objectives. specialization, decisions in the real world
often made without regard to overall
system performance.
performance
• Approaching system design with overall
objectives in mind and considering how
each element relates to each other and to
the whole is called a systems or holistic
approach to system design.
System Approach System Approach

Four-step iterative approach to systems improvement
• Identifying problems and opportunities
– Developing a solution starts by understanding the
problem, identifying key variables, and describing
important relationships.
– This
s helps
e ps identify
de y poss
possible
bea areas
eas o
of focus
ocus a
and
d
leverage points for applying a solution.
– Techniques such as cause-and-effect analysis and
pareto analysis are useful.
– Performance standards must be set high in order to
look for the greatest improvement opportunities.
– Setting high standards pushes people to think
creatively and often results in breakthrough
improvement
System Approach System Approach

• Developing alternative solutions • Evaluating the solutions
– Alternative solutions should be evaluated based on their ability to
– Once a problem or opportunity has been meet the criteria established for the evaluation.
identified and key decision variables isolated, – These criteria include performance goals, cost of implementation,
alternative solution can be explored. impact on the socio-technical infrastructure, and consistency
g
with organizational strategies.
g
– This is where most of the design and – Many of these criteria are difficult to measure in absolute terms.
engineering expertise comes into play. – After narrowing the list to two or three of the most promising
solutions using common sense and rough-cut analysis, more
– Generating alternative solutions requires precise evaluation techniques may need to be used.
creatively as well as organizational and – This is where simulation and other formal analysis tools come
engineering skills. into play.
– Simulation is particularly helpful in that it

encourages thinking in radical new ways.
9
System Approach System Analysis Techniques
• Selecting and implementing the best solution • While simulation is perhaps the most versatile
– Often the final selection of what solution to implement and powerful system analysis tool, other
is not left to the analyst, but rather a management available techniques also can be useful in
decision. planning.
– The analyst’s role is to present his/her evaluation in
• These alternative techniques are usually
the clearest way possible so that an informed
decision can be made.
computational
t ti l methods
th d that
th t work
k wellll ffor simple
i l
systems with little interdependency and
– Even after a solution is selected, additional modeling
variability.
and analysis are often needed for fine-tuning the
solution. • For more complex systems, these techniques
– Implementers should then be careful to make sure
still can provide rough estimates but fall short in
that the system is implemented as designed, producing the insights and accurate answers
documenting reasons for any modifications. that simulation provides.
System Analysis Techniques System Analysis Techniques

Simulation improves performance predictability
• In addition to simulation, system analysis
tools include:
– Hand calculations
– Spreadsheet
– Operations Research techniques

• Hand calculations • Spreadsheets
– Quick-and-dirty, pencil-and-paper sketches and – What-if experiments can be run on
calculations can be remarkably helpful in spreadsheet based on expected values and
understanding basic requirements for a system simple interactions.
– Some
S decisions
d i i may bbe so b
basic
i th
thatt a quick
i k mental
t l
calculation yields the needed results.
– Spreadsheet simulation can be very useful
– Most of these calculations involve simple algebra.
for getting rough performance estimates.
– The obvious drawback is the inability to manually – Weaknesses of spreadsheet modeling:
perform complex calculations or to take into account • Some potential problems are not readily apparent
tens or potentially even hundreds of complex • All behavior is assumed to be period-driven rather
relationship simultaneously. than event-driven
10
• OResearch Techniques • Prescriptive techniques
– Traditional OR techniques utilize mathematical – an optimum solution to a problem
models to solve problems. – linear programming, dynamic programming
– These mathematical models include both – do not allow random variables
deterministic models and probabilistic models (e.g. – conditions are constant over the period of study
queuing and decision trees).
• Descriptive techniques
– These OR techniques provide quick, quantitative
– static analysis techniques such as queuing theory that
answers without going through the guesswork provide good estimates for basic problems
process of trial and error.
– limited to only one or two metrics
– OR techniques can be divided into: prescriptive and – give only average performance measures rather than
descriptive a complete picture of performance over time
QUEUING SYSTEM QUEUING SYSTEM

• Elements of queuing system
– Input source (calling population)
• Size
• Arrival distribution
– Queue
• Length
L th
– Queuing disciplines
• FIFO, LIFO, priority
– Service mechanism
• Number of service facilities
• Structure of service facilities
• Service distribution
QUEUING SYSTEM QUEUING SYSTEM

For a and b
• Kendall’s notation
M : Exponential distribution
(a/b/c) : (d/e/f) D : Degenerate distribution
Ek : Erlang distribution
GI : General distribution for interarrival time
a : Interarrival time distribution G : General distribution for service time
b : Service time distribution
c : Number of parallel servers Untuk disiplin pelayanan
d : Service discipline
FIFO : First-in, first out
e : Maximum number of queue
LIFO : Last-in, first out
f : Number of calling population
SIRO : Service in random order
11

02 Introduction To Simulation

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Lecture 1 What is Simulation?

• The Oxford American Dictionary (1980):

SIMULATION testing or training, etc.”

• This lecture focuses primarily on discrete- Why Simulate?

Doing Simulation … Doing Simulation ….

Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 9 Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 10

Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 11 Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 12

Typical Applications of When Simulation is

Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 15 Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 16

When Simulation is Appropriate Qualification for Doing

Economic Justification of Simulation Cost of making changes at subsequent stages

Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 21 Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 22

Comparison of cumulative system costs with

Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 23 Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 24

Manufacturing System Service System

Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 27 Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 28

Processing Systems System Elements

Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 35 Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 36

System Complexity System Complexity

Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 39 Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 40

System Performance Metrics Key operational metrics

Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 43 Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 44

Response Variables State Variables

System Optimization System Optimization

Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 47 Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 48

System Approach System Approach

System Approach System Approach

– Simulation is particularly helpful in that it

System Analysis Techniques System Analysis Techniques

Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 57 Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 58

System Analysis Techniques System Analysis Techniques

Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 61 Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 62

QUEUING SYSTEM QUEUING SYSTEM

Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 63 Simulasi Komputer@www.teknik-industri.com 64

QUEUING SYSTEM QUEUING SYSTEM

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