Commodity Price Forecasts:

September 2012

Copyright (C) 2012 Oxford Economics

 Commodity Price Forecasts

Contents

1 Contents ........................................................................................... 1

2 Overview ........................................................................................... 2

3 Latest Forecasts .............................................................................. 6

3.1 Oil Prices ..................................................................................................... 6
3.2 Non-Oil Commodity Price Indices ............................................................... 7
3.3 Base Metal Indices ................................................................................... 10

4 Recent Developments ................................................................... 13

4.1 Energy....................................................................................................... 14
4.2 Base Metals .............................................................................................. 15
4.3 Precious Metals ........................................................................................ 17
4.4 The Economist Price Indices .................................................................... 18

1
Commodity Price Forecasts

Overview
Oil prices tick lower
• Oil prices remained supported by geopolitical risk during UK Brent oil - nominal prices
US $/Barrel
the early part of the last month, with the killing of the US 140
ambassador in Libya heightening supply concerns. Then
the Fed’s announcement of further quantitative easing 120
also buoyed prices. As Brent crude rised towards the
100
$120 a barrel level, speculation rose that the US would
release strategic reserves and despite no such release, 80
prices declined by almost $4 a barrel in mid-September.
60
This was followed a few days later by announcements by
Saudi officials that they would like to see oil prices down 40
at $100, suggesting they may increase supply. At the
same time, weak PMI readings from China and renewed 20
concerns about the Eurozone crisis kept prices below 0
$110 although more positive news from the US saw 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
prices tick up again in the last few days. Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
• As a result, prices have dropped back since a month ago
and at the time of writing Brent crude was trading at
$112 per barrel while WTI was trading at $91 per barrel.
Futures have also fallen although they have risen from
levels of last week. UK Brent oil and Non-oil - real 2005 prices
US$ terms, 2005=100
• For the year as a whole, we expect Brent crude to 250
average $110.8 per barrel, little changed from the 2011
average. Prices are expected to drift lower through the Brent Oil
rest of the year, weighed down by weakening demand 200 Non-Oil
conditions, and are forecast to average $101.3 per barrel
in 2013 before rising to $106.4 in 2014 as demand
conditions improve. 150

• These forecasts are based on the assumption that

geopolitical tensions do not flare up. And events over the 100
past month suggest Iran is not the only flashpoint to
watch. However, prices could drop even further should
conditions in the Eurozone – the chief downside worry – 50
begin to spook markets once more, highlighting the 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
downside risks to our baseline. Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

Japanese demand decelerates

• OECD oil demand fell 0.5% in July. Consumption in the Non-oil commodity price index - nominal prices
OECD Americas slid 0.3% year-on-year, as the sluggish US$ terms 2005=100
economic recovery was offset by the structural decline in 220
demand. Demand from OECD Europe continues to
languish given the weak macroeconomic conditions 200
there. As in previous months, OECD demand was driven 180
by gains in Japanese demand. However, Japanese
demand growth has decelerated as two nuclear plants 160
came back on line in August, reducing oil consumption 140
for power generation.
120
• Meanwhile, non-OECD oil demand rose 3.2% year-on-
year the same month, accelerating from growth of 2.5% 100
in June. Demand was largely driven by the transportation 80
sector amid rising car ownership in the developing world. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source : Oxford Economics/IMF

2 Commodity Price Forecasts: September 2012

 Commodity Price Forecasts

• We expect world oil demand to grow by 0.6% this year

and by 0.7% in 2013 as economic activity accelerates.
Over the longer term, world oil demand will be Non-oil commodity price indices - nominal prices
increasingly driven by emerging markets as US$ terms, 2005=100
consumption from the developed world is likely to 550
continue to decline.
Iranian exports tick up 450
Fertilizers Beverages
• Global oil supply declined by 0.1 mb/d on the month in 350
Food
August, largely due to unplanned outages in non-
OPEC countries. Non-OPEC supply fell 0.2 mb/d in
250
August while OPEC supply rose 45 kb/d. But world Metals
production was still 2.0 mb/d higher than a year earlier
as a result of higher OPEC production. 150
Agricultural
• Iranian crude supply declined by 50 kb/d to 2.85 mb/d 50
the same month. Exports did, though, tick up despite 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
sanctions and there are indications exports will rise in Source : Oxford Economics/IMF
September also. However, as talks over Iran’s nuclear
programme have not progressed, the US and EU are
likely to tighten sanctions, which will further depress
Iran’s exports and production.
Iron ore prices continue to trade at low level Non-oil commodity price indices - real 2005 prices
US$ terms, 2005=100
• Iron ore prices continue to trade at a low level, 550
weighed down by weak demand from China. From the
middle of the month, though, prices did recover 450
slightly, buoyed by the government’s announcements Fertilizers
Food Beverages
of planned infrastructure projects. Construction
350
accounts for half of Chinese steel demand, so such
projects would provide a substantial boost to iron ore
demand also. However, these projects are likely to be 250
Metals
spread over several years and the recent uptick was
more about sentiment than actual demand. Prices 150
were also boosted by the announcement by the Indian
Agricultural
state of Goa of a temporary suspension in mining 50
activities. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source : Oxford Economics/IMF
• Reflecting lacklustre demand for iron ore, world crude
steel production contracted by 2.9% on a seasonally
adjusted basis in August. This came as Chinese
production declined 4.6%, reversing the increase seen
in July. Western European output also fell, by 5.8%,
as weak demand in the region continued to weigh on UK Brent oil
production trends. Production in the US and Japan, US $/Barrel
meanwhile ticked up in September after declining in 130
the previous month.
120
• The outlook for steel production and therefore iron ore
demand remains weak for this year. Production in 110
Western Europe is likely to decline given lacklustre
demand from end-use markets and little indication 100
from producers that earlier announced production
cutbacks will be reversed. The outlook in the US is 90
more positive given healthier demand conditions daily data
there. However, a big uncertainty is the outlook for
80
Chinese production, given that government attempts Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
to prop up production may have been responsible for 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012
the jump in production last month. Nevertheless, Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
softening underlying demand conditions and high

3
Commodity Price Forecasts

stock levels through the supply chain suggest weaker

than usual demand for iron ore from China also this
year.
• Iron ore prices are likely to continue to trade at a low UK Brent oil
level in the short term as Chinese steel production will US $/Barrel
remain subdued. Steel prices in China are likely to be 160
depressed for much of the rest of the year with a pick- monthly data
140
up not expected until towards the end of the year or
120
early in 2013 as stocks are run down and demand
gradually picks up. Elsewhere, prices in Europe are 100
likely to remain at their current depressed levels 80
although the weak euro has shielded the region from
60
import competition. Conversely, prices in the US
market have been pushed lower by high imports and 40
these will continue to weigh on prices in the near term. 20
• The current weakness in iron ore prices has hit profits 0
at major iron ore producers. As a result, investment 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
projects have been shelved and there are likely to be Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
delays to some projects coming on stream. With less
supply now coming on line than previously assumed
and delays likely for other projects, medium-term
prices are now likely to be higher than previously
forecast. And should prices remain at current low Commodity market prices - base metals
US $/tonne US $/tonne
levels for longer than we expect, we could see an
3500 Aluminium 11000
even weaker medium-term supply response. daily data
(alloy) (LHS) 10000
Base metal price rally Copper (HG)
3000 (RHS) 9000
• Base metal prices rallied during the past month. 8000
Prices were initially buoyed by the announcement of 2500 7000
fresh quantitative easing by the Fed, a move
6000
anticipated by markets last month also. Then news of
further infrastructure projects in China kept the rally 2000 5000
going through much of the month. However, in recent Zinc 4000
Aluminium (HG) (LHS) (LHS)
weeks some of these gains were reversed as weak 1500 3000
macroeconomic news, not least a weak Chinese PMI Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
reading, provided a reminder than current demand 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012
conditions are still soft. Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

• LME stocks for aluminium, nickel and zinc remain at

high levels. Much of the aluminium and to some extent
zinc inventory is locked into financing deals, thus not
depressing prices, while weak stainless steel Commodities price index - base metals
production has led to surplus nickel output. Lead 2005 = 100
continues to benefit from stable replacement battery 400
demand. Stocks are falling sharply for the metal and monthly data
350
lead prices rose at the strongest pace of the base
metals over the past month. 300 Nickel

250
• Base metal prices are expected to pick up through Q4
Copper
and into next year as Chinese stockpiles are depleted 200
and demand conditions improve. But risks to the 150
forecasts are skewed to the downside, partly due to
downside risks to our macroeconomic projections but 100
Aluminium
also because Chinese stockpiles may prevent 50
significant restocking in Q4. On the upside, stimulus 0
from central banks could boost speculative activity 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
and thereby provide some support for prices. Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

4 Commodity Price Forecasts: September 2012

 Commodity Price Forecasts

Commodity market prices - precious metals Commodity market prices - precious metals
US $/troy oz US $/troy oz
2500 2250
daily data 2000 monthly data
2000 Gold
1750
Platinum
1500
1500
1250
Platinum
1000 1000
Gold
750
500 Palladium 500 Palladium
250
0
Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- 0
2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

The Economist commodity price index - aggregates The Economist commodity price index - aggregates
2005 = 100 2005 = 100
250 300

Metals Metals
Industrial Food 250 Industrial
200

200
150
150
100 Food
100 All items
All items
50
50
weekly data monthly data
0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source : The Economist Source : The Economist

5
Commodity Price Forecasts

Table 1: Oil Market Overview

UK Brent % y-o-y World Oil Supply World final oil demand Stock- Bunker
(US$/barrel) (supply - stocks - bunker dem.) building demand
(mtoe) (b/d) % y-o-y (mtoe) (b/d) % y-o-y (mtoe) (mtoe)
2008 97.2 34.0 4088 87 0.8 3729 76.3 -0.5 20.0 339.1
2009 61.5 -36.7 3994 86 -2.3 3659 74.8 -1.9 7.1 328.8
2010 79.5 29.1 4062 88 1.7 3779 77.3 3.3 -56.6 339.6
2011 111.3 40.1 4112 89 1.2 3815 78.0 1.0 -46.8 342.8
2012 110.8 -0.5 4213 90 2.5 3836 78.4 0.5 31.1 346.1
2013 101.3 -8.6 4221 90 0.2 3866 79.1 0.8 10.0 345.3
2014 106.4 5.0 4250 91 0.7 3901 79.8 0.9 -2.6 352.1

2008 Q1 96.9 67.8 4125 87.8 1.7 3786 77.4 1.1 4.5 333.7
2008 Q2 121.7 77.4 4105 86.9 1.7 3743 76.5 1.2 23.6 338.5
2008 Q3 115.1 53.5 4072 86.2 0.9 3712 75.9 -0.7 10.1 349.2
2008 Q4 55.0 -38.0 4052 85.4 -0.9 3675 75.2 -3.4 42.0 335.0
2009 Q1 44.5 -54.1 3986 84.6 -3.4 3616 74.0 -4.5 39.4 330.4
2009 Q2 58.7 -51.8 3974 84.8 -3.2 3624 74.1 -3.2 23.7 325.9
2009 Q3 68.3 -40.6 3993 86.1 -1.9 3681 75.3 -0.8 -15.7 327.8
2009 Q4 74.7 35.7 4025 86.8 -0.7 3713 75.9 1.0 -19.1 331.0
2010 Q1 76.2 71.2 4051 86.8 1.6 3716 76.0 2.7 4.9 330.3
2010 Q2 78.4 33.6 4037 87.5 1.6 3744 76.6 3.3 -43.1 336.1
2010 Q3 76.7 12.3 4056 89.1 1.6 3809 77.9 3.5 -102.6 350.1
2010 Q4 86.6 16.0 4102 89.8 1.9 3846 78.7 3.6 -85.5 341.7
2011 Q1 104.8 37.5 4125 89.1 1.8 3819 78.1 2.8 -31.1 337.4
2011 Q2 117.6 50.0 4069 87.9 0.8 3765 77.0 0.6 -39.6 343.4
2011 Q3 113.3 47.7 4095 89.6 1.0 3831 78.3 0.6 -90.0 354.0
2011 Q4 109.5 26.5 4157 89.8 1.3 3847 78.7 0.0 -26.3 336.5
2012 Q1 118.4 13.0 4214 89.4 2.2 3837 78.5 0.5 38.6 339.0
2012 Q2 108.5 -7.7 4221 89.3 3.7 3820 78.1 1.5 54.6 346.1
2012 Q3 109.6 -3.2 4199 89.8 2.5 3838 78.5 0.2 1.9 358.2
2012 Q4 106.5 -2.8 4218 89.7 1.5 3847 78.7 0.0 29.5 341.0
2013 Q1 101.5 -14.3 4224 89.4 0.2 3832 78.4 -0.1 49.0 342.7
2013 Q2 100.5 -7.4 4219 90.0 -0.1 3862 79.0 1.1 12.2 344.5
2013 Q3 101.3 -7.6 4214 90.5 0.4 3885 79.5 1.2 -18.0 346.2
2013 Q4 101.8 -4.4 4227 90.5 0.2 3883 79.4 0.9 -3.4 347.9
2014 Q1 103.5 2.0 4212 90.2 -0.3 3866 79.1 0.9 -3.0 349.5
2014 Q2 105.4 4.9 4245 90.9 0.6 3896 79.7 0.9 -2.7 351.2
2014 Q3 107.3 5.9 4272 91.4 1.4 3921 80.2 0.9 -2.4 353.0
2014 Q4 109.2 7.3 4272 91.4 1.0 3919 80.1 0.9 -2.2 354.7

6 Commodity Price Forecasts: September 2012

 Commodity Price Forecasts

Table 2a: Non-oil Commodity Price Indices (US$ terms 2005=100)

Total Food Beverages Agriculture Metals Fertilizer

2008 151.2 157.0 152.0 113.3 169.0 398.9

2009 127.4 134.0 154.4 94.1 136.5 203.8
2010 161.0 149.3 176.2 125.3 202.3 187.2
2011 189.6 178.8 205.5 153.8 229.7 267.0
2012 171.9 178.7 174.3 132.7 191.8 252.4
2013 175.5 181.0 220.0 122.5 199.5 225.0
2014 178.4 179.7 241.1 121.0 203.5 226.8

2010 Q1 150.4 138.7 168.6 115.2 191.1 170.6

2010 Q2 155.5 140.1 170.1 122.6 200.7 173.6
2010 Q3 158.6 150.5 180.0 123.2 193.2 187.3
2010 Q4 179.4 168.2 186.1 140.4 224.2 217.1
2011 Q1 200.4 185.6 216.2 161.9 248.6 230.2
2011 Q2 199.3 186.5 213.4 164.9 241.7 262.6
2011 Q3 190.7 179.1 207.9 153.2 233.0 290.9
2011 Q4 168.0 163.9 184.6 135.1 195.4 284.2
2012 Q1 172.8 168.8 175.2 135.8 205.3 260.1
2012 Q2 170.2 171.1 162.7 137.1 194.2 270.0
2012 Q3 171.1 186.7 168.8 130.4 179.7 255.6
2012 Q4 173.5 188.0 190.4 127.5 188.0 223.9
2013 Q1 174.6 186.2 210.4 123.7 193.6 224.3
2013 Q2 175.1 181.4 217.4 122.9 199.0 224.8
2013 Q3 175.7 178.0 222.0 122.0 201.7 225.2
2013 Q4 176.8 178.4 230.1 121.5 203.7 225.7
2014 Q1 177.7 178.8 237.4 121.3 204.6 226.1
2014 Q2 178.4 179.1 239.8 121.0 205.2 226.6
2014 Q3 178.8 180.1 242.1 120.9 203.7 227.0
2014 Q4 178.7 181.0 244.9 120.8 200.6 227.5

y-o-y growth rates

2008 7.5 23.3 23.3 -0.8 -7.8 168.0

2009 -15.7 -14.7 1.6 -17.0 -19.2 -48.9
2010 26.4 11.5 14.1 33.2 48.2 -8.2
2011 17.8 19.7 16.6 22.7 13.5 42.6
2012 -9.3 -0.1 -15.2 -13.7 -16.5 -5.4
2013 2.1 1.3 26.2 -7.7 4.0 -10.9
2014 1.6 -0.7 9.6 -1.2 2.0 0.8

2010 Q1 32.9 9.9 19.2 33.4 77.5 -37.5

2010 Q2 26.6 0.8 17.3 43.2 66.4 -17.4
2010 Q3 19.4 11.8 13.4 25.7 28.1 9.9
2010 Q4 27.5 23.4 7.9 32.0 34.3 33.9
2011 Q1 33.2 33.9 28.3 40.5 30.1 34.9
2011 Q2 28.2 33.1 25.4 34.4 20.4 51.2
2011 Q3 20.3 19.0 15.5 24.4 20.6 55.3
2011 Q4 -6.4 -2.6 -0.8 -3.8 -12.8 30.9
2012 Q1 -13.8 -9.1 -19.0 -16.1 -17.4 13.0
2012 Q2 -14.6 -8.3 -23.7 -16.8 -19.7 2.8
2012 Q3 -10.3 4.3 -18.8 -14.9 -22.9 -12.1
2012 Q4 3.2 14.8 3.2 -5.7 -3.8 -21.2
2013 Q1 1.0 10.3 20.1 -8.9 -5.7 -13.8
2013 Q2 2.8 6.1 33.6 -10.4 2.5 -16.8
2013 Q3 2.7 -4.7 31.5 -6.5 12.3 -11.9
2013 Q4 2.0 -5.1 20.8 -4.7 8.3 0.8
2014 Q1 1.8 -4.0 12.8 -2.0 5.7 0.8
2014 Q2 1.9 -1.3 10.3 -1.5 3.1 0.8
2014 Q3 1.8 1.1 9.1 -0.9 1.0 0.8
2014 Q4 1.1 1.5 6.5 -0.6 -1.5 0.8

7
Commodity Price Forecasts

Table 2b: Non-oil Commodity Price Indices (Euro terms 2005=100)

Total Food Beverages Agriculture Metals Fertilizer

2008 180.0 187.0 180.2 134.5 202.1 472.8

2009 143.2 150.2 173.3 105.8 154.3 226.0
2010 171.6 159.2 187.5 133.6 215.9 199.5
2011 212.3 200.1 229.7 172.2 257.6 298.6
2012 173.4 175.3 178.0 135.3 197.5 257.3
2013 180.1 182.7 226.1 126.1 205.8 231.6
2014 181.3 183.1 245.2 123.3 207.7 231.0

2010 Q1 167.1 154.0 187.0 128.0 212.7 189.5

2010 Q2 158.7 143.0 173.5 125.2 205.3 177.2
2010 Q3 164.5 156.0 186.4 127.8 200.7 194.3
2010 Q4 195.9 183.6 202.9 153.2 245.1 237.1
2011 Q1 220.2 204.0 237.3 177.9 273.6 253.0
2011 Q2 230.4 215.6 246.3 190.6 279.9 303.6
2011 Q3 216.4 203.2 235.6 173.9 264.9 330.2
2011 Q4 182.0 177.5 199.7 146.3 212.0 307.8
2012 Q1 182.0 177.7 184.2 143.0 216.5 273.9
2012 Q2 175.1 176.1 167.3 140.5 200.2 278.0
2012 Q3 166.0 172.1 169.3 129.9 182.7 252.7
2012 Q4 170.7 175.2 191.0 128.0 190.7 224.8
2013 Q1 176.0 179.8 214.4 126.2 198.5 228.9
2013 Q2 179.6 182.4 223.2 126.4 204.9 231.1
2013 Q3 181.5 183.8 228.8 125.9 208.5 232.4
2013 Q4 183.4 184.9 238.1 125.9 211.4 233.9
2014 Q1 184.2 185.3 245.7 125.7 212.3 234.3
2014 Q2 182.4 183.3 245.1 123.8 210.3 231.9
2014 Q3 180.1 181.9 244.3 122.2 206.1 229.4
2014 Q4 178.6 181.8 245.7 121.3 201.9 228.5

y-o-y growth rates

2008 16.3 33.1 32.7 7.0 0.1 187.0

2009 -20.5 -19.7 -3.8 -21.4 -23.6 -52.2
2010 19.8 6.0 8.2 26.3 39.9 -11.7
2011 23.7 25.7 22.6 28.9 19.3 49.7
2012 -18.3 -12.4 -22.5 -21.4 -23.3 -13.8
2013 3.8 4.2 27.1 -6.8 4.2 -10.0
2014 0.7 0.2 8.4 -2.3 0.9 -0.2

2010 Q1 41.0 16.7 26.6 41.6 88.4 -33.6

2010 Q2 18.0 -6.0 9.4 33.5 55.1 -23.0
2010 Q3 7.7 0.9 2.4 13.4 15.6 -0.8
2010 Q4 17.3 13.4 -0.8 21.4 23.4 23.1
2011 Q1 31.8 32.4 26.9 39.0 28.7 33.5
2011 Q2 45.1 50.8 42.0 52.2 36.4 71.3
2011 Q3 31.6 30.2 26.4 36.1 32.0 69.9
2011 Q4 -7.1 -3.4 -1.6 -4.5 -13.5 29.8
2012 Q1 -17.4 -12.9 -22.4 -19.6 -20.9 8.3
2012 Q2 -24.0 -18.3 -32.1 -26.3 -28.5 -8.4
2012 Q3 -23.3 -15.3 -28.1 -25.3 -31.0 -23.5
2012 Q4 -6.2 -1.3 -4.3 -12.5 -10.0 -27.0
2013 Q1 -3.3 1.1 16.4 -11.8 -8.3 -16.5
2013 Q2 2.6 3.6 33.4 -10.1 2.4 -16.8
2013 Q3 9.3 6.8 35.1 -3.1 14.1 -8.0
2013 Q4 7.5 5.5 24.7 -1.6 10.9 4.0
2014 Q1 4.7 3.0 14.6 -0.4 7.0 2.4
2014 Q2 1.5 0.5 9.8 -2.0 2.6 0.3
2014 Q3 -0.8 -1.0 6.8 -3.0 -1.2 -1.3
2014 Q4 -2.6 -1.6 3.2 -3.7 -4.5 -2.3

8 Commodity Price Forecasts: September 2012

 Commodity Price Forecasts

Table 3a: Base Metal Prices US$ / metric ton

Aluminum Copper Nickel Tin Zinc Iron Ore Lead

2008 2577.9 6963.5 21141.5 18466.6 1884.8 61.565 2093.3

2009 1669.2 5165.3 14672.4 13602.7 1181.2 79.994 1719.4
2010 2173.0 7538.4 21810.0 20367.2 2160.4 146.720 2148.2
2011 2400.7 8823.5 22909.1 26051.4 2195.5 167.792 2400.7
2012 2016.1 7931.8 17450.8 20777.3 1954.7 127.040 2017.2
2013 2245.1 8009.5 17936.1 20686.3 2077.5 127.498 2208.1
2014 2387.4 8449.0 18733.6 19389.0 2187.5 128.557 2356.1

2010 Q1 2164.7 7234.0 19977.8 17190.5 2283.6 131.100 2213.6

2010 Q2 2096.1 7024.8 22456.6 17819.1 2028.0 159.150 1952.1
2010 Q3 2090.2 7260.9 21229.2 20544.7 2015.2 137.443 2039.9
2010 Q4 2341.0 8633.7 23576.5 25914.7 2314.7 159.187 2387.2
2011 Q1 2503.5 9639.2 26914.6 29883.3 2396.9 178.723 2601.2
2011 Q2 2604.1 9160.4 24305.9 28812.9 2255.2 175.747 2554.7
2011 Q3 2400.0 8982.9 22030.1 24660.5 2224.1 175.887 2453.9
2011 Q4 2095.0 7511.4 18386.0 20849.1 1906.0 140.810 1993.1
2012 Q1 2181.1 8324.7 19654.4 22942.2 2027.7 141.803 2092.7
2012 Q2 1978.8 7870.2 17154.9 20555.1 1928.9 139.513 1974.6
2012 Q3 1909.9 7683.9 16222.1 19150.0 1876.1 114.357 1959.8
2012 Q4 1994.4 7848.2 16771.7 20462.1 1986.1 112.488 2041.8
2013 Q1 2092.6 7832.7 17325.2 20954.5 2021.8 118.237 2107.1
2013 Q2 2231.7 7955.9 17879.6 21091.4 2058.2 125.106 2174.5
2013 Q3 2302.0 8083.8 18082.3 20681.4 2096.0 133.321 2251.9
2013 Q4 2354.0 8165.4 18457.5 20017.9 2133.9 133.330 2298.9
2014 Q1 2359.2 8273.8 18612.8 19668.7 2158.2 133.338 2327.6
2014 Q2 2387.2 8395.5 18711.5 19453.8 2179.8 132.164 2356.2
2014 Q3 2396.8 8554.2 18767.6 19259.2 2197.2 127.214 2365.7
2014 Q4 2406.4 8572.4 18842.7 19174.5 2214.8 121.514 2375.1

y-o-y growth rates

2008 -2.3 -2.4 -43.1 27.4 -42.0 68.1 -18.8

2009 -35.3 -25.8 -30.6 -26.3 -37.3 29.9 -17.9
2010 30.2 45.9 48.6 49.7 82.9 83.4 24.9
2011 10.5 17.0 5.0 27.9 1.6 14.4 11.8
2012 -16.0 -10.1 -23.8 -20.2 -11.0 -24.3 -16.0
2013 11.4 1.0 2.8 -0.4 6.3 0.4 9.5
2014 6.3 5.5 4.4 -6.3 5.3 0.8 6.7

2010 Q1 8.0 8.7 14.1 13.1 3.2 35.0 -3.2

2010 Q2 -3.2 -2.9 12.4 3.7 -11.2 21.4 -11.8
2010 Q3 -0.3 3.4 -5.5 15.3 -0.6 -13.6 4.5
2010 Q4 12.0 18.9 11.1 26.1 14.9 15.8 17.0
2011 Q1 6.9 11.6 14.2 15.3 3.6 12.3 9.0
2011 Q2 4.0 -5.0 -9.7 -3.6 -5.9 -1.7 -1.8
2011 Q3 -7.8 -1.9 -9.4 -14.4 -1.4 0.1 -3.9
2011 Q4 -12.7 -16.4 -16.5 -15.5 -14.3 -19.9 -18.8
2012 Q1 4.1 10.8 6.9 10.0 6.4 0.7 5.0
2012 Q2 -9.3 -5.5 -12.7 -10.4 -4.9 -1.6 -5.6
2012 Q3 -3.5 -2.4 -5.4 -6.8 -2.7 -18.0 -0.7
2012 Q4 4.4 2.1 3.4 6.9 5.9 -1.6 4.2
2013 Q1 4.9 -0.2 3.3 2.4 1.8 5.1 3.2
2013 Q2 6.7 1.6 3.2 0.7 1.8 5.8 3.2
2013 Q3 3.1 1.6 1.1 -1.9 1.8 6.6 3.6
2013 Q4 2.3 1.0 2.1 -3.2 1.8 0.0 2.1
2014 Q1 0.2 1.3 0.8 -1.7 1.1 0.0 1.2
2014 Q2 1.2 1.5 0.5 -1.1 1.0 -0.9 1.2
2014 Q3 0.4 1.9 0.3 -1.0 0.8 -3.7 0.4
2014 Q4 0.4 0.2 0.4 -0.4 0.8 -4.5 0.4

9
Commodity Price Forecasts

Table 3b: Base Metal Price Indices (US$ terms 2005=100)

Aluminum Copper Nickel Tin Zinc Iron Ore Lead

2008 135.6 189.4 143.1 250.0 136.5 219.0 214.8

2009 87.8 140.5 99.3 184.2 85.6 284.6 176.5
2010 114.3 205.0 147.6 275.8 156.5 521.9 220.5
2011 126.3 240.0 155.0 352.7 159.1 596.9 246.4
2012 106.1 215.7 118.1 281.3 141.6 451.9 207.0
2013 118.1 217.9 121.4 280.1 150.5 453.6 226.6
2014 125.6 229.8 126.8 262.5 158.5 457.3 241.8

2010 Q1 113.9 196.8 135.2 232.7 165.4 466.4 227.2

2010 Q2 110.3 191.1 152.0 241.2 146.9 566.2 200.3
2010 Q3 110.0 197.5 143.6 278.1 146.0 488.9 209.3
2010 Q4 123.2 234.9 159.5 350.9 167.7 566.3 245.0
2011 Q1 131.7 262.2 182.1 404.6 173.6 635.8 266.9
2011 Q2 137.0 249.1 164.5 390.1 163.4 625.2 262.1
2011 Q3 126.3 244.3 149.1 333.9 161.1 625.7 251.8
2011 Q4 110.2 204.3 124.4 282.3 138.1 500.9 204.5
2012 Q1 114.8 226.4 133.0 310.6 146.9 504.5 214.7
2012 Q2 104.1 214.1 116.1 278.3 139.7 496.3 202.6
2012 Q3 100.5 209.0 109.8 259.3 135.9 406.8 201.1
2012 Q4 104.9 213.5 113.5 277.1 143.9 400.2 209.5
2013 Q1 110.1 213.0 117.2 283.7 146.4 420.6 216.3
2013 Q2 117.4 216.4 121.0 285.6 149.1 445.1 223.2
2013 Q3 121.1 219.9 122.4 280.0 151.8 474.3 231.1
2013 Q4 123.9 222.1 124.9 271.1 154.6 474.3 235.9
2014 Q1 124.1 225.0 126.0 266.3 156.3 474.3 238.9
2014 Q2 125.6 228.4 126.6 263.4 157.9 470.2 241.8
2014 Q3 126.1 232.7 127.0 260.8 159.2 452.6 242.8
2014 Q4 126.6 233.2 127.5 259.6 160.4 432.3 243.8

y-o-y growth rates

2008 -2.3 -2.4 -43.1 27.4 -42.0 68.1 -18.8

2009 -35.3 -25.8 -30.6 -26.3 -37.3 29.9 -17.9
2010 30.2 45.9 48.7 49.7 82.9 83.4 24.9
2011 10.5 17.0 5.0 27.9 1.6 14.4 11.8
2012 -16.0 -10.1 -23.8 -20.2 -11.0 -24.3 -16.0
2013 11.4 1.0 2.8 -0.4 6.3 0.4 9.5
2014 6.3 5.5 4.4 -6.3 5.3 0.8 6.7

2010 Q1 58.5 109.5 89.2 54.7 93.3 85.4 90.2

2010 Q2 40.3 50.0 72.5 31.3 37.1 146.0 29.8
2010 Q3 15.3 23.6 20.6 41.3 14.5 57.2 6.0
2010 Q4 16.8 29.7 34.7 70.5 4.6 63.9 4.4
2011 Q1 15.7 33.3 34.7 73.8 5.0 36.3 17.5
2011 Q2 24.2 30.4 8.2 61.7 11.2 10.4 30.9
2011 Q3 14.9 23.7 3.8 20.0 10.4 28.0 20.3
2011 Q4 -10.5 -13.0 -22.0 -19.6 -17.7 -11.5 -16.5
2012 Q1 -12.9 -13.6 -27.0 -23.2 -15.4 -20.7 -19.6
2012 Q2 -24.0 -14.1 -29.4 -28.7 -14.5 -20.6 -22.7
2012 Q3 -20.4 -14.5 -26.4 -22.3 -15.7 -35.0 -20.1
2012 Q4 -4.8 4.5 -8.8 -1.8 4.2 -20.1 2.4
2013 Q1 -4.1 -5.9 -11.9 -8.7 -0.3 -16.6 0.7
2013 Q2 12.8 1.1 4.2 2.6 6.7 -10.3 10.1
2013 Q3 20.5 5.2 11.5 8.0 11.7 16.6 14.9
2013 Q4 18.0 4.0 10.1 -2.2 7.4 18.5 12.6
2014 Q1 12.7 5.6 7.4 -6.1 6.7 12.8 10.5
2014 Q2 7.0 5.5 4.7 -7.8 5.9 5.6 8.4
2014 Q3 4.1 5.8 3.8 -6.9 4.8 -4.6 5.1
2014 Q4 2.2 5.0 2.1 -4.2 3.8 -8.9 3.3

10 Commodity Price Forecasts: September 2012

 Commodity Price Forecasts

Table 3c: Base Metal Price Indices (Euro terms 2005=100)

Aluminum Copper Nickel Tin Zinc Iron Ore Lead

2008 162.1 228.2 171.5 297.9 163.8 258.5 257.2

2009 99.1 159.7 111.9 206.6 136.3 320.8 199.9
2010 122.0 219.6 156.7 293.2 167.5 555.4 235.4
2011 141.6 269.7 173.1 393.8 178.5 668.6 276.0
2012 108.9 222.0 120.9 287.7 145.6 464.0 212.2
2013 117.3 216.9 120.1 277.1 149.7 449.8 224.8
2014 118.2 216.8 118.8 246.0 149.3 430.2 227.3

2010 Q1 126.6 219.4 149.8 257.8 184.3 518.1 252.4

2010 Q2 112.7 195.8 154.7 245.5 150.4 578.0 204.5
2010 Q3 114.2 205.6 148.6 287.6 151.8 507.1 217.1
2010 Q4 134.6 257.4 173.7 381.9 183.6 618.3 267.5
2011 Q1 144.9 289.2 199.7 443.2 191.4 698.8 293.4
2011 Q2 158.6 289.1 189.7 449.6 189.4 722.8 303.1
2011 Q3 143.5 278.3 168.8 377.7 183.3 710.2 285.8
2011 Q4 119.5 222.1 134.4 304.8 150.0 542.5 221.5
2012 Q1 121.0 239.4 139.7 326.1 155.1 531.2 226.1
2012 Q2 107.3 221.2 119.2 285.6 144.3 511.0 208.6
2012 Q3 101.0 210.7 110.0 259.6 136.8 408.5 202.0
2012 Q4 106.3 216.9 114.6 279.6 146.0 405.1 212.1
2013 Q1 110.7 214.8 117.4 284.0 147.5 422.4 217.2
2013 Q2 118.0 218.1 121.2 285.9 150.1 446.9 224.1
2013 Q3 119.8 218.1 120.6 275.9 150.4 468.7 228.4
2013 Q4 120.5 216.7 121.1 262.7 150.7 461.1 229.4
2014 Q1 119.8 217.8 121.1 255.9 151.1 457.3 230.3
2014 Q2 119.2 217.3 119.7 248.9 150.1 445.7 229.2
2014 Q3 117.6 217.7 118.1 242.3 148.7 421.7 226.3
2014 Q4 116.1 214.4 116.5 237.0 147.3 395.9 223.2

y-o-y growth rates

2008 6.1 6.3 -37.5 37.8 -36.7 80.2 -12.4

2009 -38.9 -30.0 -34.7 -30.6 -16.8 24.1 -22.3
2010 23.1 37.5 40.0 41.9 22.9 73.1 17.8
2011 16.0 22.8 10.5 34.3 6.6 20.4 17.2
2012 -23.1 -17.7 -30.2 -26.9 -18.5 -30.6 -23.1
2013 7.7 -2.3 -0.6 -3.7 2.8 -3.1 5.9
2014 0.8 -0.1 -1.0 -11.2 -0.2 -4.4 1.1

2010 Q1 68.3 122.3 100.8 64.2 105.2 96.7 101.9

2010 Q2 30.8 39.8 60.8 22.4 27.8 129.3 21.0
2010 Q3 4.1 11.6 8.9 27.6 3.3 41.9 -4.3
2010 Q4 7.4 19.3 23.8 56.8 -3.9 50.7 -4.0
2011 Q1 14.4 31.8 33.3 71.9 3.8 34.9 16.2
2011 Q2 40.7 47.7 22.6 83.1 25.9 25.0 48.2
2011 Q3 25.7 35.4 13.6 31.3 20.8 40.0 31.6
2011 Q4 -11.2 -13.7 -22.6 -20.2 -18.3 -12.2 -17.2
2012 Q1 -16.5 -17.2 -30.0 -26.4 -18.9 -24.0 -22.9
2012 Q2 -32.3 -23.5 -37.1 -36.5 -23.8 -29.3 -31.2
2012 Q3 -29.6 -24.3 -34.9 -31.3 -25.4 -42.5 -29.3
2012 Q4 -11.0 -2.3 -14.7 -8.3 -2.6 -25.3 -4.3
2013 Q1 -8.5 -10.3 -15.9 -12.9 -4.9 -20.5 -4.0
2013 Q2 10.0 -1.4 1.7 0.1 4.1 -12.5 7.4
2013 Q3 18.6 3.5 9.7 6.3 9.9 14.7 13.1
2013 Q4 13.3 -0.1 5.7 -6.1 3.2 13.8 8.1
2014 Q1 8.2 1.4 3.1 -9.9 2.5 8.3 6.0
2014 Q2 1.0 -0.4 -1.2 -12.9 0.0 -0.3 2.3
2014 Q3 -1.8 -0.2 -2.1 -12.2 -1.1 -10.0 -0.9
2014 Q4 -3.7 -1.1 -3.8 -9.8 -2.2 -14.1 -2.7

11
Commodity Price Forecasts

Table 4: Commodity Market Prices - Steel

Europe (€/t) US (US$/s.t) China (RMB/t)

HRC Plate HRC* Plate HRC Plate

2008 647.8 835.0 857.3 1190.5 4790.0 5512.5

2009 417.5 537.9 489.9 682.5 3543.1 3576.0
2010 541.9 652.4 630.5 742.8 4174.5 4416.4
2011 559.9 711.5 730.5 997.3 4593.8 4779.5
2012 510.0 592.0 627.5 872.5 3956.8 3979.9
2013 498.8 619.7 691.3 966.7 4086.6 4134.1
2014 530.0 665.8 725.9 1000.6 4309.3 4304.8

2010 Q1 463.0 503.5 630.0 672.0 3906.5 4012.0

2010 Q2 623.5 725.0 673.0 778.0 4309.5 4723.0
2010 Q3 571.0 730.0 616.5 772.0 4168.5 4338.5
2010 Q4 510.0 651.0 602.5 749.0 4313.5 4592.0
2011 Q1 606.5 747.5 780.0 935.5 4658.0 5008.5
2011 Q2 586.5 759.5 763.0 1083.5 4772.5 4958.0
2011 Q3 542.5 704.0 697.0 1020.0 4741.5 4813.5
2011 Q4 504.0 635.0 682.0 950.0 4203.0 4338.0
2012 Q1 534.0 625.0 662.0 958.0 4255.0 4287.0
2012 Q2 529.0 607.0 642.0 886.0 4207.0 4222.2
2012 Q3 490.9 570.0 600.1 805.9 3785.0 3800.1
2012 Q4 485.9 565.9 605.8 840.3 3580.0 3610.4
2013 Q1 486.8 587.6 640.4 924.9 3706.5 3802.7
2013 Q2 492.8 615.3 685.9 961.7 4009.9 4107.0
2013 Q3 502.8 631.6 718.4 987.5 4313.4 4311.3
2013 Q4 512.8 644.2 720.5 992.4 4316.8 4315.6
2014 Q1 523.1 657.1 722.7 996.4 4313.8 4311.3
2014 Q2 530.9 666.9 724.9 1000.4 4310.8 4306.9
2014 Q3 533.6 670.3 727.0 1002.3 4307.7 4302.6
2014 Q4 532.5 668.9 729.2 1003.3 4304.7 4298.3

y-o-y growth rates

2008 30.1 10.0 61.9 51.5 16.8 26.2

2009 -35.5 -35.6 -42.9 -42.7 -26.0 -35.1
2010 29.8 21.3 28.7 8.8 17.8 23.5
2011 3.3 9.1 15.9 34.3 10.0 8.2
2012 -8.9 -16.8 -14.1 -12.5 -13.9 -16.7
2013 -2.2 4.7 10.2 10.8 3.3 3.9
2014 6.3 7.4 5.0 3.5 5.4 4.1

2010 Q1 0.9 -25.6 27.8 -18.7 11.3 9.7

2010 Q2 66.5 35.5 69.5 18.7 27.7 39.8
2010 Q3 32.8 52.7 15.7 21.5 12.6 20.3
2010 Q4 25.5 40.9 12.3 22.4 20.4 25.4
2011 Q1 31.0 48.5 23.8 39.2 19.2 24.8
2011 Q2 -5.9 4.8 13.4 39.3 10.7 5.0
2011 Q3 -5.0 -3.6 13.1 32.1 13.7 10.9
2011 Q4 -1.2 -2.5 13.2 26.8 -2.6 -5.5
2012 Q1 -12.0 -16.4 -15.1 2.4 -8.7 -14.4
2012 Q2 -9.8 -20.1 -15.9 -18.2 -11.8 -14.8
2012 Q3 -9.5 -19.0 -13.9 -21.0 -20.2 -21.1
2012 Q4 -3.6 -10.9 -11.2 -11.6 -14.8 -16.8
2013 Q1 -8.8 -6.0 -3.3 -3.5 -12.9 -11.3
2013 Q2 -6.8 1.4 6.8 8.5 -4.7 -2.7
2013 Q3 2.4 10.8 19.7 22.5 14.0 13.5
2013 Q4 5.5 13.8 18.9 18.1 20.6 19.5
2014 Q1 7.4 11.8 12.9 7.7 16.4 13.4
2014 Q2 7.7 8.4 5.7 4.0 7.5 4.9
2014 Q3 6.1 6.1 1.2 1.5 -0.1 -0.2
2014 Q4 3.8 3.8 1.2 1.1 -0.3 -0.4
* US HRC price is an import

12 Commodity Price Forecasts: September 2012

 Commodity Price Forecasts

Table 5: World Oil Prices (US$/barrel)*

WTI UK Brent Dubai Urals

2004 41.4 38.2 33.5 34.1 26.8 30.1

2005 56.5 54.5 49.3 49.9 34.4 38.4
2006 66.1 65.1 61.4 63.6 50.3 56.0
2007 72.4 72.5 68.4 69.6 - -
2008 99.6 97.2 93.8 94.8
2009 61.7 61.5 61.8 60.1
2010 79.4 79.5 78.1 78.4
2011 95.1 111.3 106.0 109.3
- -
-
Sep-11 85.6 112.7 106.0 110.0
Oct-11 86.4 109.6 103.7 109.0
Nov-11 97.2 110.7 108.6 109.6
Dec-11 98.6 108.2 106.2 107.1

Jan-12 100.2 110.5 109.8 111.1

Feb-12 102.3 119.4 116.2 118.0
Mar-12 106.2 125.4 122.3 124.3
Apr-12 103.3 120.1 117.3 118.9
May-12 94.7 110.2 107.1 107.6
Jun-12 82.4 95.3 94.2 94.1
Jul-12 87.9 102.8 99.2 102.0
Aug-12 94.2 113.4 108.4 112.5
Source: Haver
* Monthly data represent oil price on the 15th of every month

Table 6: Oil Product Prices

Diesel fuel Gasoline Gas oil Residual Kerosene-Type Benzene

Fuel Oil Jet Fuel
$/gln* $/gln* cents/gln** cents/gln* cents/gln*** cents/gln

2004 1.2 1.2 111.8 66.6 115.0 290.8

2005 1.7 1.6 161.5 98.8 171.0 288.0
2006 1.9 1.8 185.2 109.9 192.1 316.5
2007 2.1 2.1 203.2 128.7 213.0 359.6
2008 2.9 2.4 293.6 181.2 296.2 357.3
2009 1.7 1.7 165.3 133.2 165.9 224.2
2010 2.2 2.1 #N/A #N/A 214.6 332.3
2011 3.0 2.8 #N/A #N/A 299.6 376.8

Sep-11 2.9 2.8 294.8 382.3

Oct-11 3.0 2.8 296.6 323.3
Nov-11 3.1 2.6 304.6 313.5
Dec-11 2.9 2.6 287.3 322.0

Jan-12 3.1 2.8 308.7 380.8

Feb-12 3.2 3.0 320.7 414.8
Mar-12 3.3 3.2 325.6 421.0
Apr-12 3.2 3.2 322.6 410.7
May-12 3.0 2.9 297.4 408.2
Jun-12 2.7 2.6 267.8 399.5
Jul-12 2.9 2.8 289.2 424.0
Aug-12 3.1 3.0 315.6 442.5

Source: Haver
* New York price ** Rotterdam prices
*** Average of U.S. Gulf Coast, LA, New York, Rotterdam, Singapore prices

13
Commodity Price Forecasts

Table 7: Commodity Market Prices - Energy

Coal UK Brent Natural Gas

(US $/metric ton) (US $/barrel) (US $/000 CF)

2003 28.0 28.9 4.9

2004 56.7 38.3 5.4
2005 137.3 54.4 7.1
2006 137.1 65.4 9.6
2007 183.6 72.7 9.7
2008 357.3 85.7 17.1
2009 200.7 61.9 9.8
2010 276.5 79.6 9.4
2011 337.9 110.9 11.9

Sep-10 265.1 77.8 9.3

Oct-10 272.2 82.9 9.4
Nov-10 299.4 85.7 9.7
Dec-10 330.5 91.8 9.9

Jan-11 370.1 96.3 10.8

Feb-11 358.6 104.0 10.6
Mar-11 352.4 114.4 10.6
Apr-11 341.8 123.1 11.7
May-11 330.7 114.5 11.6
Jun-11 333.2 113.8 11.6
Jul-11 335.2 116.5 12.4
Aug-11 333.2 110.1 12.2
Sep-11 342.4 110.9 12.2
Oct-11 332.4 109.5 12.9
Nov-11 317.9 110.5 12.8
Dec-11 306.3 107.9 13.0

Jan-12 323.8 111.2 12.9

Feb-12 321.7 119.7 12.5
Mar-12 293.6 124.9 13.5
Apr-12 283.9 120.5 12.9
May-12 263.9 110.5 13.1
Jun-12 239.2 95.6 13.0
Jul-12 235.9 103.1 12.6
Aug-12 243.6 113.3 12.6

14 Commodity Price Forecasts: September 2012

 Commodity Price Forecasts

Table 8a: Commodity Market Prices - Base Metals

Aluminum Copper Nickel Tin Zinc Iron Ore Lead

(US $/metric ton)

2002 1351 1560 6783 4061 779 127 452

2003 1433 1779 9630 4890 828 138 514
2004 1719 2863 13821 8481 1048 164 882
2005 1901 3676 14778 7385 1381 281 974
2006 2573 6731 24126 8755 3266 335 1288
2007 2640 7132 37136 14495 3250 366 2579
2008 2578 6963 21141 18467 1885 616 2093
2009 1669 5165 14672 13603 1658 800 1719
2010 2173 7538 21810 20367 2160 1467 2148
2011 2401 8823 22909 26051 2196 1678 2401

Aug-10 2118 7284 21413 2075 2045 1453 2075

Sep-10 2162 7709 22643 2270 2151 1406 2184
Oct-10 2347 8292 23807 2634 2372 1485 2380
Nov-10 2333 8470 22909 2552 2292 1561 2377
Dec-10 2351 9147 24111 2616 2281 1631 2413

Jan-11 2440 9556 25646 2747 2372 1792 2602

Feb-11 2508 9868 28252 3153 2465 1872 2587
Mar-11 2556 9503 26710 3059 2342 1694 2624
Apr-11 2678 9493 26408 3236 2362 1793 2701
May-11 2596 8960 24237 2868 2167 1771 2428
Jun-11 2558 9067 22421 2552 2235 1709 2525
Jul-11 2525 9650 23848 2740 2398 1730 2681
Aug-11 2379 9001 21845 2404 2200 1775 2397
Sep-11 2293 8300 20378 2253 2075 1772 2288
Oct-11 2181 7394 19039 2187 1871 1504 1960
Nov-11 2080 7581 17873 2129 1935 1355 1994
Dec-11 2022 7565 18267 1938 1905 1364 2022

Jan-12 2144 8040 19855 2144 1982 1403 2096

Feb-12 2208 8441 20394 2429 2058 1404 2121
Mar-12 2184 8471 18661 2299 2036 1447 2057
Apr-12 2050 8289 17940 2220 2002 1476 2071
May-12 2008 7956 17068 2041 1936 1366 2013
Jun-12 1890 7423 16549 1927 1859 1347 1854
Jul-12 1876 7584 16128 1855 1848 1279 1882
Aug-12 1845 7516 15735 1877 1818 1075 1901

15
Commodity Price Forecasts

Table 8b: Commodity Market Prices - Steel (Hot rolled coil)

Europe Asia N. America Europe Asia N. America

(US $/metric ton) (€/metric ton)
2002 257 336 356 270 355 375
2003 352 405 318 311 358 282
2004 546 546 655 438 439 528
2005 546 507 595 437 405 477
2006 586 457 640 465 364 510
2007 682 540 584 497 394 426
2008 955 688 947 649 464 641
2009 582 518 542 418 373 389
2010 716 616 691 541 465 523
2011 781 710 826 560 510 593

Sep-10 732 636 665 558 485 507

Oct-10 710 638 631 511 459 454
Nov-10 681 646 627 498 473 459
Dec-10 693 663 756 524 501 571

Jan-11 771 706 882 576 528 660

Feb-11 851 718 929 623 526 680
Mar-11 876 699 962 624 498 686
Apr-11 877 730 959 606 504 663
May-11 848 739 895 592 515 624
Jun-11 807 734 833 560 510 578
Jul-11 797 742 799 558 519 560
Aug-11 776 749 724 541 523 505
Sep-11 733 724 750 533 526 545
Oct-11 706 665 722 514 484 526
Nov-11 675 654 707 498 482 521
Dec-11 657 665 749 499 506 569

Jan-12 666 673 805 516 521 624

Feb-12 718 672 793 542 507 599
Mar-12 724 679 758 548 514 574
Apr-12 715 684 752 543 520 571
May-12 677 658 721 529 514 563
Jun-12 645 651 677 514 519 540
Jul-12 618 584 675 503 475 550
Aug-12 508 435 594 409 350 479

16 Commodity Price Forecasts: September 2012

 Commodity Price Forecasts

Table 9: Commodity Market Prices - Precious Metals

Palladium Platinum Gold Silver

(US $/troy oz) (US cents/troy oz)

2001 611 529 271 439

2002 523 517 285 476
2003 203 692 363 491
2004 233 845 409 669
2005 203 897 445 734
2006 322 1141 604 1157
2007 356 1305 697 1341
2008 264 1200 833 1258
2009 265 1203 973 1464
2010 530 1610 1225 2015
2011 738 1720 1569 3522

Sep-10 543 1592 1271 2055

Oct-10 587 1689 1342 2339
Nov-10 688 1693 1370 2654
Dec-10 767 1708 1391 2932

Jan-11 792 1787 1356 2851

Feb-11 836 1826 1373 3078
Mar-11 760 1770 1424 3581
Apr-11 768 1794 1474 4270
May-11 753 1784 1510 3734
Jun-11 776 1769 1529 3580
Jul-11 788 1759 1573 3792
Aug-11 771 1804 1756 4033
Sep-11 717 1748 1772 3815
Oct-11 612 1535 1665 3197
Nov-11 632 1600 1739 3308
Dec-11 647 1467 1652 3030

Jan-12 670 1506 1656 3065

Feb-12 705 1659 1743 3414
Mar-12 691 1655 1674 3295
Apr-12 661 1587 1650 3153
May-12 632 1473 1586 2872
Jun-12 623 1445 1597 2798
Jul-12 588 1426 1594 2743
Aug-12 609 1449 1626 2877

17
Commodity Price Forecasts

Table 10: The Economist Commodity Price Index - Aggregates

(US$ terms 2005 = 100)

All Items Food Industrial Non - Food Metals

2002 73.4 83.4 62.1 76.6 55.2

2003 82.3 91.6 71.8 93.8 61.4
2004 96.8 101.7 91.2 103.0 85.7
2005 99.0 99.3 98.7 99.5 98.3
2006 127.2 110.3 145.9 112.4 161.6
2007 150.7 137.9 164.9 122.8 184.8
2008 173.5 186.8 155.6 136.4 164.7
2009 135.9 157.4 111.7 103.3 115.7
2010 170.2 174.8 165.1 172.3 162.0
2011 208.2 219.8 196.3 235.8 179.3

Sep-10 176.9 186.0 166.6 171.8 164.2

Oct-10 188.5 194.0 182.3 190.8 178.4
Nov-10 196.9 203.7 189.8 216.3 178.4
Dec-10 209.0 213.9 203.9 246.0 185.8

Jan-11 224.0 231.0 216.7 265.6 195.7

Feb-11 230.8 229.3 232.4 309.2 199.4
Mar-11 226.3 225.4 227.3 301.0 195.7
Apr-11 229.6 233.7 225.4 284.0 200.3
May-11 215.6 225.3 205.5 255.3 184.1
Jun-11 207.8 217.6 197.6 228.3 184.5
Jul-11 213.8 223.8 203.4 222.5 195.2
Aug-11 214.5 235.9 192.2 216.0 182.0
Sep-11 191.0 210.7 170.6 202.4 156.9
Oct-11 188.8 207.8 169.2 194.6 158.3
Nov-11 180.4 200.4 159.6 178.0 151.7
Dec-11 176.3 196.7 155.1 172.1 147.8

Jan-12 188.9 204.1 173.1 189.0 166.4

Feb-12 190.6 206.6 174.1 191.5 166.6
Mar-12 194.1 212.8 174.8 192.7 167.1
Apr-12 190.6 211.3 169.0 191.8 159.3
May-12 178.4 203.8 152.0 163.1 147.2
Jun-12 181.2 212.7 148.5 162.5 142.5
Jul-12 192.1 234.5 148.0 159.7 143.0
Aug-12 195.1 240.6 147.8 156.3 144.2

18 Commodity Price Forecasts: September 2012