NOT, ROBOTS ARE NOT COMING FOR YOUR

JOBS.

An unsenttling specter haunts the world economy: a future of ubiquitous

robots that destroy millions of Jobs. Sometimes this is called “artificial
intelligence”; sometimes it isn’t. Either way, it threatens the social
stability of the Unite States and other advanced countries, which
depende on most people working most of the time. Well, don’t believe it,
says a massive new report.
“we are not heading for a jobless future anytime soon”,argues the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a
group of 36 major countries with a combined population, including the
United States, of about 1.3 billion. Most of its conclusions apply to the
entire OECD.
It matters who’s right. Whit many advanced economies facing
challenges from populist parties, economic performance will be crucial
in determining the political outcome. Job loss or low wages “may
contribute to the growing sense of frustration and discontent among the
middle class,” says the report, which was released last week.
It identifies three major threats to existing Jobs: globalization ( the
shifting of work to foreing countries); aging societies (more people
entering retirement); and digitalization (the introduction of new devices
driven by the internet and computers).
The pace of technological upheaval seems daunting. The report notes,
for example, that “it took over seven decades for Phone penetration to
go from 10% to 90% in US households.” By contrast, mobile phones
achieved the same penetration in 15 years, and smartphones made it in
eight years.
Similarly, there has been a global explosion of annual sales of industrial
robots, from fewer than 100,000 in 2001 to almost 500,000 projected for
2019, according to statistics from the international federation of robotics
cited in the report.
Jobs have beed eliminated; there can be Little doubt of that. But Jobs
have also been created. The lesson from historia is that inventions and
innovations have typically been more than offset by employment gains.
Automobiles displaced horses, and job gains were not only in
manufacturing but also in gasolina stations, auto repair shops and
highway construction.
Jet planes are another good example. Although they decimated most
long-distance train travel, airlines now move vastly more people than
trains ever did. A similar shift may be happening now. Over the past
decade, 4 of 10 new Jobs were created in “ digitally intensive industries,”
the OECD says.
On the other hand, there’s a tendency to exaggerate the significance of
novel developments. Annual tobots sales, though impressive, are equal
to less than one-tenth of 1 percent of the 571 million Jobs in OECD
countries at the end of 2018. As yet, they haven’t destroyed many Jobs.
Indeed, it’s possible – Though the OECD study barely mentions it – that
the supply and demand fow workers, after many years of favorite
business, is slowly shifting the advantage to workers.
The ímpetus for change would come from the massive retirement of the
baby boomers – a phenomenon present in most advanced countries.
Across the OECD, there were 20 people age 65 and over for every 100
people of working age (20 to 64) in 1980; now that figure is 28 and is
projected to double by 2050.
The OECD report suggests thar a growing scarcity of workers will cause
businesses to automate more activities and accept more immigrants.
That is possible. But it’s also possible that a tighter labor market will push
up wages and cause firms to provide more job security as companies
compete for essential workers.
In any case, the OECD has concluded that much-heralded warnings of
a job implosión are overstated. At least one study forecasts that nearly
half of today’s Jobs will be automated. The OECD is skeptical. Its
estimate is just 14 percent over the next 15 to 20 years. This figure may
seem high, but it’s less than one percentage point annually.
The paradox is that public anxiety throughout much of the OECD nations
over the long-term job Outlook remains high, even as labor market for
workers improves. To be sure, as the report emphasizes, there are
plenty of negative indicators. In many countries, involuntary part-time
Jobs are up, as are wage and salary inequality. The OECD also warns
that almost a third of Jobs will change dramatically, even if they aren’t
eliminated, as they incorporate new technologies.
If there is one loud message from the report, it is that many workers need
more training so that they are more employable. This has long been a
problem in the Unite States, where public retraining programs have not
been notably successful and private-employer-based programs tend to
ignore low-skilled workers.
Still: in a pessimistic time, maybe some optimism is warranted.
VOCABULARY
 Unsettling
 Haunts
 Either
 Threatens
 Jobless
 Anytime
 Son
 Argues
 Development
 Major
 Entire
 Matters
 Perfomance
 Outcome
 Low
 Wages
 Growing
 Sense
 Among
 Shifting
 Foreing
 Aging
 Retirement
 Devices
 Pace
 Upheaval
 Seems
 Daunting
 Took
 Households
 Achieved
 Fewer
 Almost
 Offset
 Employment
 Gains
 Highway
 Although
 Vastly
 Indeed
 Barely
