Journal of Criminal Justice Vol. 17, pp. 199-224 (1989) 0047-2352/X9 $3.00 + .

00
All rights reserved. Printed ,n U.S.A. Copyright 01989 Maxwell Pergamon Macmillan plc

THE ECONOMICS OF CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION IN A

MUNICIPAL POLICE FORCE

B. W. SIMMS

Department of Engineering Management

Royal Military College of Canada
Kingston, Ontario K7K-5L0

E. R. PETERSEN

School of Business
Queen’s University
Kingston, Ontario K7L-3N6

ABSTRACT

Municipal police force activities, from car patrol and criminal intelligence to follow-up investiga-
tion, have been modeled as information processing activities and linked in an information processing
model of criminal investigation. In the present study municipal police force data were used to estimate
model parameters, and the resulting computer simulation was used to investigate tactical and strategic
questions about the economic allocation of resources. The analysis, based on principles of economic
efficiency and estimates of the appropriate production functions, suggests that clearance rates are most
sensitive to learning activities, somewhat less sensitive to solving activities, and quite insensitive to
sensing activities.

INTRODUCTION patrol and criminal intelligence through to the

matching of unsolved cases to newly charged
Criminal investigation is the set of activi- suspects.
ties carried out by the operational units of a Previous studies of criminal investigation
police force in which criminal events are ob- have either described the investigative func-
served and reported, suspects are identified tion, patrol versus detective effectiveness, or
and investigated, the means of identifying the have provided rules for the postevent man-
offender when investigated are provided, and agement of cases. These studies include Isaacs
information necessary to convict the offender (1967)) Greenwood ( 1970)) and Greenwood
is gathered. The stages of this system of in- and Petersilia (1975), and their major find-
formation processing activities are described ings are:
as sensing, learning, and solving, and crim- 1. The patrol officer makes most of the arrests
inal investigation is studied by analyzing po- while detectives identify a large portion of
lice resource allocation decisions from car those arrested.

199
200 B. W. SIMMS and E. R. PETERSEN
2. One of the most important determinants of
whether the case will be cleared is the in-
formation given to the patrol officei by
the victim/witness during the preliminary
investigation.
3. Most of the arrests are made within 24-48
hours of the occurrence epoch.
4. Differences in investigative training, staff-
ing, workload, and procedures appear to have
no appreciable effect on crime, arrest, or
clearance rates.
5. The methods by which police investigators
are organized (i.e. team policing, special-
ists, patrolmen-investigators) cannot be re-
lated to variations in crime, arrest, and
clearance rates.
6. Of those cases that are ultimately cleared,
but in which the perpetrator is not identifi-
able at the time of the initial occurrence re-
port, almost all are cleared as a result of rou-
tine police procedures.
In a related area of research, Greenberg,
Yu, and Lang (1973), Greenberg, Elliot,
Kraft, and Proctor ( 1977), Johnson and Healy
(1978), and Eck ( 1979), have provided ad-
ditional evidence that information elements
at the scene are extremely important in de-
termining case outcomes. Implicit in the
studies is the assumption that the determi-
nants of success are closely related to the na-
ture of the event rather than to organizational
factors.
These studies are a serious challenge to the
paradigm that detectives are effective at solv-
ing crime. Ward (1971), Eck (1981), and
Chappell, Enjstad, and Bordon (1981), ex-
pressed different views and argued that de-
tectives perform significant tasks during in-
vestigations. Eck (1983) hypothesized that
cases can be categorized with a triage system:
1. cases that cannot be solved with a reason-
able amount of effort,
2. cases that have already been solved by the
circumstances of the case, and
3. cases that, with a reasonable amount of ef-
fort, may be solved.
Eck, using data from three police forces,
concluded that patrol officers and detectives
are equally important in solving cases. The
study was also one of the first to link infor-
mation, investigative effort, and consequences.
The view of the present authors is that the
field of criminal investigation research lacks
a comprehensive model that includes a full
menu of criminal investigation activities and
their interactions and that can be used to study
the criminal investigation process systemati-
cally. The model presented here responds to
these concerns while recognizing the contri-
butions of previous research.
An information processing model of police
organizations was described previously by
Neave, Petersen, and Simms (1982). Use of
this model in an executive training program
for senior police managers was reported by
Neave and Simms (1987). The information
processing approach to the analysis of orga-
nizations has been discussed in detail by
Simms and Petersen (1988). More detailed
and specific quantitative and qualitative dis-
cussions of the model and analysis can be
found in Simms ( 1984).
The model of the criminal investigation
process, including a discussion of the data and
estimation procedures required for a dem-
onstration of the computer model, is pre-
sented in the next several sections. In addi-
tion, the role of records is discussed. An
economic analysis of the resource allocation
process within a police force follows presen-
tation of the model. The final section sum-
marizes the contributions and limitations of
the model.
AN INFORMATION PROCESSING
MODEL OF CRIMINAL
INVESTIGATIONS
The objective of this research was to ana-
lyze the annual resource allocation decisions
within a municipal police force. A computer
simulation of the criminal investigation pro-
cess was developed as the primary analytical
tool. The research began with interviews with
police personnel at all levels of the organi-
zation. The information path, from the initial
call for service to the final outcome and pro-
cessing of the case for court, was examined
 Economics of Criminal Investigation 201

in detail for each of seventeen crime types. estimate their shape and the organization’s
The important police activities were defined position on these curves.
and linked in an information network. This Since this was a first attempt at a compre-
model was subjected to police review and went hensive model of the criminal investigation
through several evolutionary stages of devel- process, the following simplifying assump-
opment. The resulting model is shown in fig- tions were made:
ure 1.
There is no feedback between organizational
Police activities are described as the ge-
decisionmaking and the environment, and the
neric activities of sensing, learning, and solv-
generation of criminal events is not affected
ing. Each of these can, in turn, be viewed as by internal resource allocations.
a search process. For example, the car patrol The crime generation process is in steady
activity includes a search for events and peo- state, and crimes occur at a constant annual
ple, intelligence activities include searching rate according to a Poisson process.
for details of organized crime or information The analysis of the criminal investigation
about people routinely involved in crime process with respect to one crime category
(sensing activities), initial investigation in- may be accomplished independently of other
cludes searching for the circumstances of the categories of crime.
event (learning activities), and follow-up in-
vestigation includes searching for matches Municipal Police Force Data
between criminal events and suspects (solv-
ing activities). Consequently, search models Most of the data were obtained from an
provided many useful insights in the study and Ontario regional police force. In 1980 the force
modeling of the investigation activities. had an annual budget of $14,429,959, of
Search theory relates the probability of which $12,176,833 was allocated to salaries
success to the resources allocated to the ac- and benefits. The strength of the force was
tivity. These relationships are of the, “logis- 380 police personnel and 67 civilians, serv-
tics” or “learning” curve type and will be used ing a population of 277,359 over an area of
to describe the production function for each 2667.5 square kilometers. The number of oc-
activity. The difficult modeling problem is to currences reported to Statistics Canada, in-

- sensed
EVENT LEARNING
Aqmkd
Solved
EWMS Criminal SOLVING OCCURRENCES
No Response OCCUWWXS
OCCU~~WIC~S Follow~up Investigation
--) Dispatch
+ occurrence to suspects
Preliminary
Matching
1

Figure 1. The Criminal Investigation Process Model

202 B. W. SIMMS and E. R. PETERSEN

eluding provincial nontraffic statutes, was that police forces have to deal with and they
approximately 3 1,000, with an aggregate provide variability in report rates, motiva-
clearance rate of fifty-eight percent. tion, offender characteristics, actual event
The force operations were controlled circumstances, and police resource allocation
through two districts, each of which was fur- decisions.
ther subdivided into three divisions. Some of Estimates for the total actual rate of events
the divisions were in urban areas, whereas were obtained from victimization studies
others were predominantly rural, so that a good conducted in Canada, the United States, and
range of crime types and circumstances were Australia. Table 1 shows observed frequen-
available for study and geographical factors cies for police and public sensing from the
could be controlled for, if required. Occurrence Study, and a summary of the vic-
The bulk of the police force data were ob- timization studies is shown in Table 2. Es-
tained by examining 897 occurrence (case) timates of the minimum and maximum report
files for the years 1979-1980. This data source rates and the corresponding estimates for the
will be referred to as the Occurrence Study. actual crime rates are shown in Table 3.
Other data and information were gathered The criminally active members of the pop-
through interviews of experienced police per- ulation were ranked by frequency of criminal
sonnel, including the chief, deputy chiefs, activity, with 1 being most active, producing
patrol operations personnel, intelligence per- a monotonically decreasing frequency distri-
sonnel, detectives, and administrators. Es- bution. The corresponding relative frequency
sential data that could not be obtained from distribution can be modeled by a probability
this police force were obtained from national distribution. The rate of recorded police con-
and international sources. The data were used tacts with population members was used as a
to demonstrate the mathematical models of measure of frequency of criminal activity. The
the police force activities as well as to give estimated coefficient of variation from the
a specific realization of the integrated model. relative frequency distribution was close to 1
The criminal investigation process model for all crime types except homicide (see Ta-
shown in figure 1 is described in the next few ble 4), and the exponential distribution was
sections. The discussion is necessarily brief, used to describe the across population activ-
and readers interested in more detail may re- ity rates.
fer to Simms and Petersen (1988) or Simms The mean rank in Table 4 is an estimate of
(1984). the number of offenders who generated 63 2
percent of the crime within a one-year period
in each crime category. For robbery, for ex-
Criminal Activities ample, it is estimated that more than 63.2
percent of the robberies were generated by
Criminal events are generated by the mem- the forty-seven most active robbery of-
bers of a population. The actual crime rate, fenders. See Simon ( 1972) for a discussion
the relative frequency of criminal activity of distributions for frequencies of events.
among the offenders in the population, the Juvenile/adult, male/female, and criminal
personal characteristics of the offenders, and record/no record were used to describe the
the actual event characteristics are important personal characteristics of the population.
information for predicting the effects of Using data from the Occurrence Study, the
proactive and reactive resource allocation de- estimates for the proportion of crime com-
cisions. These four categories of information mitted by each population subset were cal-
are included in the model and are defined, in culated and are shown in Table 5.
a decision analysis sense, as the state of the The actual event characteristics used in the
world. study were:
The seventeen categories of crime chosen
for study are shown in Table 1. These crime 1. victim present, witness present
types are representative of the range of crime 2. victim present, witness not present
 Economics ofCriminal Investigation 203

TABLE 1

NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES SENSED BY PUBLIC AND POLICE FOR BASE YEAR

Class Description Police Public Total

1 Homicide 0 3 3
2 Serious assault 132 383 515
3 Common assault 26 943 969
4 Sexual offenses 0 147 147
5 Offensive weapons 70 216 286
6 Robbery 0 93 93
7 Break and enter 151 2529 2680
8 Theft over $200 71 1733 1804
9 Theft under $200 150 3620 3770
10 Fraud 44 851 895
11 Vehicle theft 74 669 743
12 Arson 2 68 70
13 Vandalism 252 3317 3569
14 Bicycle theft 0 1974 1974
15 Shoplifting 118 1332 1450
16 Trespass/indecent exposure 30 346 376
17 Other criminal code 481 1101 1582

victim not present, witness present, material number of activities, and the sensing may oc-
circumstances present cur before, -during, or after the event takes
victim not present, witness present, material place. If, for example, a police unit becomes
circumstances not present aware of the event before it takes place, then
victim not present, witness not present, ma-
a stakeout can be initiated. The force may in-
terial circumstances present
tercept the event during random or directed
victim not present, witness not present, ma-
car patrol or as a result of surveillance. Fi-
terial circumstances not present.
nally, the force may learn of the event some-
The probability a particular combination of time after it has occurred by responding to a
actual circumstances would obtain were es- telephone call for police service. The effec-
timated from the Occurrence Study assuming tiveness of each of these sensing activities
independence of the information elements varies for different crime types because of the
(victim, witness, material circumstances) and actual circumstances of the event, including
the distribution is shown in Table 6. The joint the type of crime. In crimes of vice, for ex-
possibilities estimated directly from the data ample, a large proportion of crimes are brought
are similar, and the information elements to the attention of the police force by police
chosen appear to be statistically independent. activities and not by calls for service from the
public.
Sensing The four sensing activities implemented in
the computer model are:
The police force allocates effort to two
1. public,
fundamentally different sensing activities-the
2. random patrol,
sensing of criminal events and the sensing of
3. stakeout, and
suspects. 4. surveillance.
Event sensing. An event has been sensed
when it has been brought to the attention of The majority of events are sensed by the
the police force. It can be sensed through a public, as shown in Table 1. Public initiated
204 B. W. SIMMS and E. R. PETERSEN

TABLE 2

VICTIMIZATION SURVEYS, REPORT PROBABILITY

Australia Canada Toronto

United States (Biles and (Solicitor (Solicitor
Occurrence Type (Ennis, 1967) Braithwaite, 1979) General) General)
Homicide 1 -
Forcible rape .77 -
Other sex crimes .51 - -
Rape, attempted rape - .33 -
Sexual assault - .38 .40
Robbery .65 .60 .45 .46
Aggravated assault .65 - -
Simple assault .46 -
Assault - .46 .34 .36
Burglary .58 - -
Break and enter - .68 .64 .65
Larceny $50+ .60 - -
Larceny <$50 .37 -
Theft - .36 -
Household theft - - .44 .46
Personal theft - - .29 .30
Vehicle theft .89 .7 .72
Auto theft .71 .90 -
Malicious mischief .38 -
Vandalism - .35 .31
Fraud .26 - -
Consumer fraud .lO -
Fraud, false pretenses - .24 -

sensing includes telephone reports, reporting
at the police station, flagging down a patrol
unit, and notifying external agencies such as
hospitals. The public will not report all events,
and the victimization study results shown in
Table 2 were used to provide the estimates
of report probabilities shown in Table 3.
Random patrol is conducted during periods
of uncommitted time when the officers are
not responding to calls for service, attending
court, or doing other assigned activities. Pa-
trol senses events by being in the right place
at the right time. The proportion of events
sensed by patrol would likely exhibit dimin-
ishing marginal returns to increased effort be-
cause of the increasing difficulty in organiz-
ing independent patrol units and, perhaps,
deterrence effects. Estimates of the probabil-
ity that a patrol unit will sense an event in
one hour of patrol, the sensing rate, were cal-
culated from the Occurrence Study and are
shown in Table 7. These probabilities are so
low that the production curve for patrol sensed
events must be very flat, and in the range of
possible police allocations it can be assumed
to be linear.
Since the sensing probability is so small,
it is unlikely that two or more independent
units would intercept the same event, and there
would appear to be little advantage to coor-
dinating effort to intercept criminal events.
This does not mean, however, that specific
smaller zones with known, exceptionally high
criminal event rates should not be targeted with
coordinated units. However, the incidence rate
would have to be very high in a well defined,
small area.
Stakeouts are instituted when information
 Economicsof CriminalInvestigation 205

TABLE 3

PROBABILITYPUBLICREPORTSAN EVENT AND ACTUAL OCCURRENCE

RATE

Public Report Probability Actual Occurrence Rate

Class Description Minimum Maximum Maximum Minimum

1 Homicide 1.00 1.00 3 3

2 Serious assault .55 .75 828 643
3 Common assault .3 .5 3169 1912
4 Sexual offenses .4 .8 368 184
5 Offensive weapons .3 .5 790 502
6 Robbery .4 .7 232 133
7 Break and enter .55 .75 4749 4042
8 Theft over $200 .55 .65 3222 2737
9 Theft under $200 .35 .4 10493 9200
10 Fraud .2 .3 4299 2881
11 Vehicle theft .7 .9 1030 817
12 Arson 1.00 1.00 70 70
13 Vandalism .3 .4 11309 8544
14 Bicycle theft .35 .4 5640 4935
15 Shoplifting .l .2 13438 6778
16 Trespass/indecent exposure .2 .4 1760 895
17 Other criminal code .2 .8 5986 1857

TABLE 4

RELATIVEACROSS POPULATIONACTIVITY RATE

Coefficient
Class Description Mean Rank of Variation
2 Serious assault 677.75 .944
3 Common assault 1392.4 1.02
4 Sexual offenses 265.4 1.06
5 Offensive weapons 548.8 1.07
6 Robbery 46.47 1.12
7 Break and enter 806.0 1.03
8 Theft over $200 384.7 1.03
9 Theft under $200 1150.7 1.07
10 Fraud 649.8 1.01
11 Vehicle theft 296.6 .975
12 Arson 41.9 1.04
13 Vandalism 1617.9 .967
14 Bicycle theft 361.5 1.07
15 Shoplifting 1195.2 .925
16 Trespass/indecent exposure 310.0 1.06
17 Other criminal code 1928.4 1.07
206 B. W. SIMMS and E. R. PETERSEN

TABLE 5
ESTIMATES FOR THE PROPORTIONOF OCCURRENCES COMMITTED BY EACH POPULATION
SUBSET

Male Female Male Female

Crime Type Juvenile Juvenile Record Record Male Female

1 Homicide
2 Serious assault .106 .027 ,369 ,030 ,325 ,143
3 Common assault ,170 .040 .358 .029 ,282 ,121
4 Sexual offenses .24 .021 ~219 ,018 ,462 ,041
5 Offensive weapons .148 ,032 .334 ,027 .338 121
6 Robbery 0.0 0.0 .638 ,052 .272 :038
7 Break and enter .3 .041 ,342 ,028 ,239 .05 1
8 Theft over $200 .15 .02 ,414 .034 .316 ,066
9 Theft under $200 .285 .085 ,198 ,016 .287 ,129
10 Fraud 0.0 0.0 .37 .03 .316 .284
11 Vehicle theft ,241 ,017 ,446 .036 .248 .012
12 Arson ,308 ,063 ,285 .023 .237 .084
13 Vandalism ,443 .022 ,129 .Ol .381 .015
14 Bicycle theft ,285 .085 ,198 .016 ,287 ,129
15 Shoplifting .25 .23 ,149 .012 .121 ,238
16 Trespass/indecent exposure .155 ,021 .381 .03 1 .34 ,068
17 Other criminal code .l 0.0 .45 0.0 .45 0.0
If all population members
committed at same rate .093 .093 ,095 .008 ,311 ,389

from informants or other sources provides a force. The objective is to develop informa-
target location and time for a criminal event. tion about criminal elements in the commu-
The success of the stakeout and the length of nity by monitoring their activities. The in-
time required to complete the operation will formation is recorded by the organization and
depend on the quality of the information. Us- is processed in various ways to provide in-
ing subjective estimates from police person- puts to the criminal investigation activities.
nel, four man-hours was used as the amount Broadly speaking, there are two types of
of effort required to complete a stakeout. information obtainable from suspect sensing
Whereas stakeouts are directed at geo- activity-prior and posterior. Prior informa-
graphical locations, surveillance is directed tion is information obtained prior to the time
at population members. Assuming offenders the event takes place, which the police use
generate events according to a Poisson pro- to generate stakeout opportunities. Posterior
cess, the probability that an event occurs information is obtained after the event, and
while the suspect is being observed is the it links a suspect to the event. Posterior in-
proportion of time the suspect is the target of formation may be stored in the records sec-
surveillance. Similar to that for patrol, the tion and used to target “active” suspects for
production curve for surveillance exhibits surveillance or, in the form of informant in-
diminishing marginal returns, both because formation, it can be used to help follow-up
the management of surveillance resources in- investigations.
creases in difficulty and because new targets It is assumed that the most critical explan-
may be less active. atory variable for the success or failure of
Suspect Sensing. Suspect sensing activity, criminal intelligence operations is time. That
or criminal intelligence, is one of the more is, there are intervals of time before and after
proactive activities undertaken by the police the criminal event epoch when the offender
 TABLE 6

PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONFOR ACTUAL EVENT CIRCUMSTANCES

Actual Circumstances

3 4 5
Victim not Witness Victim and
1 2 Present, Present, No Witness not 6
Victim Victim Witness, Material Present, No Victim,
and Present, Material Circumstances Material Witness or
Witness No Circumstances or Victim Circumstances Material
Crime Description Present Witness Present Present Present Circumstances

1. Homicide .714 .257 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2. Serious assault .343 ,657 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3. Common assault .160 .840 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4. Sexual offenses .160 .840 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5. Offensive weapons ,358 ,598 .006 .014 .Oll .013
6. Robbery .29 .71 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7. Break and enter .006 .054 .062 .032 .558 .288
8. Theft over $200 ,002 .028 .052 .004 .852 .062
9. Theft under $200 ,009 .091 .071 .006 .757 .066
10. Fraud .146 ,854 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11. Vehicle theft .018 .162 .079 .003 .714 ,024
12. Arson .053 .153 .064 .141 .184 .406
13. Vandalism .034 .156 .042 .104 .191 .471
14. Bicycle theft 0.0 .05 0.0 0.0 .95 0.0
15. Shoplifting .04 .77 .009 ,001 .167 ,014
16. Trespass/Indecent
exposure .2 .8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17. Other criminal code .075 .755 ,005 .Ol ,054 .lOl
 208 B. W. SIMMS and E. R. PETERSEN

TABLE 7

RANDOM PATROL SUCCESS RATE

Number of
Actual Sensing Rate
Patrol 4’0-6
Occurrence Rate
Sensed
Class Description Maximum Minimum Occurrences Minimum Maximum

1 Homicide 3 3 0 0 0
2 Serious assault 828 643 132 6.92 8.92
3 Common assault 3169 1912 26 .36 .59
4 Sexual offenses 368 184 0 0 0
5 Offensive weapons 790 502 70 3.96 6.06
6 Robbery 232 133 0 0 0
7 Break and enter 4749 4042 126 1.15 1.36
8 Theft over $200 3222 2737 45 .61 .71
9 Theft under $200 10493 9200 150 .62 .71
10 Fraud 4299 2881 22 .22 .33
11 Vehicle theft 1030 817 74 3.12 3.94
12 Arson 70 70 2 1.24 1.24
13 Vandalism 11309 8544 252 .97 1.28
14 Bicycle theft 5640 4935 0 0 0
15 Shoplifting 13438 6778 78 .25 .50
16 Trespass/indecent
exposure 1760 895 30 .74 1.46
17 Other criminal code 5986 1857 413 3.00 .97

is particularly vulnerable to intelligence op-
erations. A simple mathematical model, based
on contacts with a suspect or career offender
at a constant rate and a vulnerability period
distributed according to the Erlang family of
probability distributions, results in predic-
tions of the number of contacts linking the
suspect to criminal events. The same vulner-
ability model is used for stakeout informa-
tion, but with different parameters.
In the computer model both the patrol unit
and the intelligence unit allocate resources to
sensing suspects. The patrol unit is assumed
to have no target information and makes con-
tacts through a random process as a result of
normal operations. The intelligence unit uses
information about “active” suspects to max-
imize the average number of suspect contacts
that produce useful information.
Target information. Target information is
processed from the data base (police records)
to help provide direction for the sensing and
solving activities. A poor data base or poor
analysis will result in a myopic, totally re-
active organization. This part of the infor-
mation flow has consciously been introduced
to allow further study of the importance of
coordination and communication in the crim-
inal investigation process.
Learning
As each event is brought to police atten-
tion, decisions are made about the level of
first response. This is the first opportunity that
the police have to observe and record the event
circumstances and, as the literature has pointed
out, resource allocation decisions made at this
stage critically affect the outcome of the case.
Decisions about first response effort are
made in two steps. First, communications
center personnel must decide whether to dis-
patch a police unit to the scene (and the prior-
ity of the dispatch), respond by taking infor-
 Economics of Criminal Investigation 209

mation over the telephone, or ask the 8, 9, and 10 determine the likelihood an ob-
complainant to report to the police station. served circumstance is available. The prob-
Second, if a police unit responds to the scene, ability the police find or detect the available
effort allocation decisions must be made about information depends on the dispatch policy
the level of preliminary investigation. and initial investigation effort.
The actual circumstances of the criminal When the initial investigation is carried out,
event are rarely observed by the police force. a search for information about the occurrence
Even if a witness is available for questioning, is initiated. The search begins at the central
the information obtained may not be com- area of the crime with interviews of the vic-
pletely accurate because of psychological tim, witnesses, and the reporter of the of-
trauma, memory decay, or active resistance. fense (if available), and then it expands to
The output information from this activity, nearby people and buildings and field searches
therefore, will be called the observed circum- of the area, as resources permit. The prior
stances of the event. probability that the ith person or geographical
The observed circumstances used in the area in this expanding search sequence con-
demonstration computer model are: tains the required information is considered
to be a decreasing function of the rank in the
1. arrest at scene, sequence. A mathematical learning function
2. accused named, describing the probability of finding the
3. suspect named, available information was derived assuming
4. suspect can be identified, a constant conditional success rate, Simms
5. suspect and/or vehicle information, and (1984).
6. no specific evidence. The learning function relates the probabil-
ity of observing information, given that it is
The observed circumstances depend on the available, to effort. Effort was measured by
actual circumstances, the sensing circumstan- the number of “contacts” with victims, wit-
ces, the first response policy, and effort al- nesses, and others during the initial investi-
located to preliminary investigation. Crimi- gation. The coefficients of variation for the
nal events that have been recorded by police number of contacts needed to observe a par-
are called occurrences. ticular observed circumstance, for all six ob-
From the Occurrence Study estimates for served circumstances, were calculated, and
the elements of the transition matrix linking values ranged from 1.32 to 2.12. The derived
actual and observed circumstances were cal- learning function has a coefficient of varia-
culated and are shown in Table 8. Table 9 tion of 1.53.
shows aggregate estimates for the proportion Efficient stopping rules for preliminary in-
of time required for each observed circum- vestigations depend on the learning functions
stance to be realized, with and without iden- and the total resources available for prelim-
tification technicians called to the scene. If inary investigations. Both the data and the
the identification unit is called to the scene, derived form for the learning function imply
it is assumed that it will always find some that if information is available at the scene,
material evidence but that otherwise it will then the investigating unit is more likely to
have no effect on the observed circumstan- learn about the information at the beginning
ces. Table 10 shows the estimate of the prob- of the investigation rather than later. The
ability distribution of observed circumstances learning function exhibits decreasing mar-
when an event is sensed by patrol that was ginal returns, and the learning rate, the prob-
used in the demonstration computer program. ability of learning information in the next unit
If an intercept has taken place either by of effort given that the information has not
stakeout or surveillance, then it is assumed yet been developed, is decreasing. Termi-
that an arrest was made at the scene. nation rules for preliminary investigations
The probabilities calculated from Tables 5, should consider initial learning rates, the slope
210 B. W. SIMMS and E. R. PETERSEN

TABLE 8

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF OBSERVED CIRCUMSTANCESGIVEN THE ACTUAL

CIRCUMSTANCES
Observed Circumstances

I 4 5 6
Arrest 2 3 Suspect Suspect or No
at Accused Suspect can be Vehicle Specific
Actual Circumstances Scene Named Named Identified Information Evidence

1. Victim and witness

present Personal ,239 .543 ,022 ,152 ,043 ,000
Property ,242 ,121 .I21 .333 ,091 ,091
2. Victim present, Personal ,118 ,545 ,082 ,182 ,045 .027
no witness Property ,319 ,227 ,080 ,215 ,129 .03 1
3. Victim not
present, witness,
material
circumstances
present ,167 ,042 ,083 ,292 ,333 .083
4. Witness present,
no material
circumstances or
victim present .210 ,000 .368 ,053 ,158 ,210
5. Material
circumstances
present, victim and
witness not present .ooo .040 .076 .ooo ,094 ,790
6. No material
circumstances,
victim or witness
present .ooo ,064 .180 .ooo ,013 .744

of the descent, and the final value of the
learning rate, as resources are allocated.
Solving
The types of criminal investigation solving
activities practiced by municipal police forces
vary. It is possible, for example, to identify
four investigative strategies:
1. investigation of an occurrence using only the
observed circumstances,
2. investigation of an occurrence using infor-
mation from informants,
3. investigation of an occurrence using histor-
ical suspect information, and
4. investigation of suspected career offenders
with joint information from a set of unsolved
occurrences.
The first three investigative strategies may
be described as matching an occurrence to
suspects, whereas the fourth matches a sus-
pect to occurrences. For break and enter and
similar crime types considerable success in
solving the offenses also can be achieved by
matching offenders identified as a result of
one of the above strategies to other unsolved
occurrences. This fifth strategy is called post-
detection matching.
Several operational units contribute to the
solving activity. The most frequent contri-
butions are made by patrol, detectives, and
identification technicians. Many cases are
solved because patrol lays charges at the scene
or the offender is identified at the scene and
the patrol unit makes charges during or shortly
after the initial investigation. Identification
 Economics of Criminal Investigation 211

TABLE 9

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF OBSERVED CIRCUMSTANCES WITH AND WITHOUT

IDENTIFICATION AT SCENE

1 4 5 6
Arrest 2 3 Suspect Suspect No
at Accused Suspect can be Vehicle Specific
Identification Scene Named Named Identified Information Evidence

Without identification .354 .154 .061 .042 .051 .335

With identification .296 ,065 .015 ,066 ,552 .006

TABLE 10 The probability of the case being with-

drawn/unfounded and estimates of the effort
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FOR POLICE
allocated were obtained from the Occurrence
SENSED OCCURRENCES
Study. The probabilities ranged from a high
Observed Circumstance Probability of .5 14 for common assault to a low of zero
for shoplifting and homicide (see Table 11).
1. Arrest at scene .66
2. Accused named .lO
3. Suspect named .08 Investigation of Suspects Using only the
4. Suspect can be Observed Circumstances
identified 0.00
5. Suspect or vehicle Eck ( 1983) described follow-up investiga-
information .06 tion as a combination of investigating sus-
6. No specific evidence .lO pects and gathering information to produce
leads. The initial stage of follow-up investi-
gation includes the investigation of suspects
who can be identified from the circumstances
of the occurrence, including interviews with
technicians are called to the scene to sense
witnesses. If this is not successful, investi-
technical information, and after the initial in-
gators allocate effort to interviewing infor-
vestigation, they may conduct fingerprint or
mants and reviewing records information to
other technical analysis in the laboratory. De-
produce leads and, perhaps, to targeting ca-
tectives are most frequently assigned cases
reer offenders with a joint set of related cases.
that are not solved by the patrol unit and, as
The investigation of suspects identified be-
a result, they typically deal with offenses that
cause of the occurrence circumstances is
are more difficult to solve.
discussed in this section. The use of infor-
The following classification scheme de-
mants, departmental records, and targeting of
scribes the mutually exclusive outcomes of
career offenders is discussed in the sections
the solving activity:
following.
With occurrence information it is possible
1. withdrawn/unfounded,
2. cleared otherwise,
for the investigating unit(s) to identify a short
3. cleared by charge, and list of suspects with a high probability, rel-
4. filed. ative to other lists chosen from the general
population, of containing the offender. For
In the demonstration computer model an oc- example, a short, high probability, list would
currence is defined as solved or “cleared” if be available for arrest at scene, accused
it is withdrawn, cleared otherwise, or cleared named, or suspect named. The success in in-
by charge. vestigating this short list will depend on the
212 B. W. SIMMS and E. R. PETERSEN

TABLE 11

PROBABILITY CASE WAS WITHDRAWN/UNFOUNDED AND THE EXPECTED NUMBER OF

CONTACTS ALLOCATED TO EACH

Class Description Probability Contacts

1 Homicide 0 N/A
2 Serious assault 0 N/A
3 Common assault ..514 1.32
4 Sexual offenses 0 N/A
5 Offensive weapons .163 1.28
6 Robbery 0 N/A
7 Break and enter 0 N/A
8 Theft over $200 ,094 1.91
9 Theft under $200 ,094 1.91
10 Fraud ,341 1.71
11 Vehicle theft .12 2.67
12 Arson 0 N/A
13 Vandalism .06 1.83
14 Bicycle theft .l .5
15 Shoplifting 0 N/A
16 Trespass/indecent exposure 0 N/A
17 Other criminal code ,174 1.75

observed circumstances and the investigative
effort.
A search model of follow-up investigation
divides the critical prior information into two
parts. First, it examines the probability that
the target of the search is in one of several,
mutually exclusive subsets. Second, it cal-
culates the conditional solving function de-
scribing the probability of identifying the of-
fender as a function of investigative effort
given that the target is in a particular
subset. Modeling the investigation provides a
division between initial information or ob-
served circumstances and the investigative
procedures.
Arguments that patrols are at least as ef-
fective as detectives in solving crime rely pri-
marily on cases in which there is an arrest at
the scene or an accused named and, to a lesser
extent, on knowledge of active suspects in a
community. Counterarguments to this view
suggest that detectives have more effective
investigative procedures for dealing with more
difficult cases and that they have periods of
uninterrupted time that can be dedicated to
investigative work. There probably is not much
difference between patrol and detective ef-
fectiveness for cases with an arrest at the scene
or an accused named. For other cases, with
less initial information, the model provides a
method to examine whether knowledge of the
population, as measured by the ability to pre-
dict who the offender might be, or effective-
ness of investigative procedures, as measured
by the conditional solving function, differ be-
tween patrol and detectives.
Parameter estimation was complicated by
censored data, since not all occurrences were
investigated and not all those that were in-
vestigated resulted in success. Two estimates
for the probability the offender is on the pri-
mary suspect list were calculated based on
extreme interpretations. The first estimate was
calculated by omitting those unsolved occur-
rences that had zero investigative effort al-
located and the second included all occur-
rences. Some occurrences were cleared
because suspects were identified in other ways,
and after omitting these from the sample, the
corrected estimates were calculated and are
shown in Table 12.
Estimates for the conditional solving rate
 Economics of Criminal Investigation 213

TABLE 12

PROBABILITY THE OFFENDER IS ON THE FIRST LIST

Observed Circumsmtance Lower Upper Range for Model

1. Arrest at scene .994 .994 1.0

2. Accused named .951 .919 1.0
3. Suspect named .507 .571 .500-,575
4. Suspect can be identified .284 .458 .28-.46
5. Suspect or vehicle Information .131 .276 .13-.28
6. No specific evidence 0.0

in the primary suspect list were found by di- The solving rates for investigation of the
viding the number of cases cleared by the to- remainder of the population were assumed to
tal number of contacts (see Table 13). Arrest be 1000 times smaller. Sensitivity testing
at the scene is a special case since it is pos- carried out on this parameter showed that there
sible that after the arrest no further process- was no significant difference in model pre-
ing will be required. The arrest at scene solv- dictions within the possible ranges of re-
ing rate was calculated by including only those source allocation between a factor of 100 and
cleared cases that had at least one follow-up 10000. Assuming units efficiently allocate
contact. their resources, the theoretical curves result-
The estimates of the probability of the of- ing from the model and the corresponding
fender being on the primary suspect list and empirical curves are compared in figures 2
the conditional solving rates were,, as ex- and 3.
pected, a function of the information found The effects on the investigation when re-
at the scene. However, whether the prior sources are divided among two or more in-
probabilities or the conditional solving func- dependent units have been examined. If the
tion, given the same initial observed circum- units were well coordinated, at some orga-
stances, differ between patrol and detectives nizational cost, they would act as a single unit
also needs to be examined. From this anal- that shares all information. Uncoordinated
ysis it would be possible to determine if and units would, on the other hand, work totally
when detectives are more effective and, tak- independently and not share any information
ing into account higher unit costs, more ef- among themselves. Using the derived model,
ficient than patrol. Future research will ex- there would be no difference in the proba-
amine this issue in more detail. bility of clearance produced by coordinated
and uncoordinated units if the total resources
allocated are only sufficient to allow inves-
TABLE 13 tigation of suspects on the primary list (Simms
1984). Further, the data showed that it was
ESTIMATES FOR THE SUCCESS RATE IN THE
rare that the total effort allocated was suffi-
FIRST LIST
cient to allow investigation of suspects on the
Observed Circumstance Success Rate secondary list. This implies that the investi-
gation outcome, based on the circumstances
1. Arrest at scene .374
of the case, is insensitive to the coordination
2. Accused named .301
of the units that carry out the activity. The
3. Suspect named .299
indifference of the success of the investiga-
4. Suspect can be
tion to the organization of the investigators
identified .207
has been empirically observed by many re-
5. Suspect or vehicle
searchers, most notably Greenwood and Pe-
information .168
tersilia (1975) and, more recently, Eck (1983).
 214 B. W. SIMMS and E. R. PETERSEN

I
I I I I 1 I I I I
4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32
Contacts, c+
Figure 2. The Probability of Case Clearance: Observed Circumstance Arrest at Scene

Case Management for a particular crime type considering the in-

formation available about the offenses and the
The case management models reported in constraint on the resources to be allocated.
the literature separate resources available from The cases were assumed to be managed se-
the quality of information and the follow-up quentially, that is, resources allocated to an
decision. For the approach described in this investigation but not required were available
article, it was assumed that the case manager for other investigations. This was seen as
would want to maximize the clearance rate mathematically equivalent to the way detec-

1.0

$ .8-
.9
1 -Theoretical
Accused Named

6 .7 - -- Data
9
f! .6-
8 s-
; .4-
2.3-
=

4 8 12 I6 20 24 28 32
Contacts, c +
Figure 3. Probability of Case Clearance: Other Observed Circumstances
 Economics of Criminal Investigation 215

tives handle their high caseloads. The prob- Post-Detection Matching. Suspects may also
ability a case will be solved with the next in- be chosen for audit after they have been iden-
crement of effort, given that it has not yet tified as the offender for another occurrence.
been solved, is known as the solving rate. An To estimate the extent of this activity, cases
efficient allocation scheme would recom- that were cleared some time after the initial
mend that those unsolved cases with the investigation, after a hiatus in follow-up in-
highest solving rate should be investigated vestigation and with no other indication of in-
first. If cases are of different importance and vestigation, were defined as cases cleared by
importance weights can be assigned, then those post-detection matching. The proportions of
unsolved cases with the highest weighted total cases cleared in this way are shown in
solving rate should be given priority. Table 14. From these data a linear relation-
Informants and Historical Suspect Infor- ship was used to predict changes in the pro-
mation. Informant information is treated as portion of cases cleared by PDM as the pro-
equivalent to “accused named.” The solving portion of cases cleared by other means
function developed for accused named can be changed. Note that it is estimated that fifty
used to allocate effort and determine the suc- percent of all break and enter clearances were
cess of the resulting investigation. Historical due to post-detection matching. Equiva-
suspect information is used to identify a set lently, on average, two clearances were ob-
of suspected career offenders or suspects be- tained for each identified offender.
lieved to have a high criminal activity rate. Records Activity. Police records constitute
The suspect data base could be either infor- the formal memory of the police organiza-
mal, as part of an investigator’s experience tion. Broadly speaking there are three clas-
and developed information, or a formal com- sifications of stored information:
ponent of an investigation information sys-
tem. In the computer program the 100 mem- TABLE 14
bers of the population with the highest contact
POST-DETECTION MATCHING PROPORTIONS
rate in records for the crime type being stud-
ied are ranked, and this list is available as Proportion of
historical suspect information. Cases Cleared
Investigation of Career Offenders. In this by Post-
investigative strategy, units of the force have Detection
knowledge of a set of related unsolved oc- Crime Type Matching
currences and audit a suspect’s activities with
respect to these occurrences. In police work,
1. Homicide N/A
this strategy is sometimes implemented by a
2. Serious assault N/A
3. Common assault .028
task force or specialist unit. The success of
4. Sexual offenses .071
this approach relies on the joint information
5. Offensive weapons N/A
and the probability that the suspect has com-
6. Robbery .071
mitted at least some of the selected occur-
7. Break and enter .50
rences. Since, however, a number of sus-
8. Theft over $200 ,103
pects do not have to be found and then
9. Theft under $200 .193
investigated, the effort to carry out the in-
10. Fraud .102
vestigation is less. In the model the suspects
11. Vehicle theft N/A
to be audited are chosen from the list gen-
12. Arson .265
erated from historical suspect information. A
13. Vandalism .036
search through the set of unsolved occur-
14. Bicycle theft N/A
rences is then carried out until the resources
15. Shoplifting N/A
available are exhausted. Any occurrences with
16. Trespass/indecent
positive matches are cleared. The probability
of a positive match is dependent on the ob-
exposure N/A
17. Other criminal code .13
served circumstances.
216 B. W. SIMMS and E. R. PETERSEN
1. Information about people.
2. Information about events.
3. Administrative information
Description of the criminal investigative
cess is mostly concerned with the first two.
In the computer model, information
people takes the form of historical suspect in-
formation on a ranked list of the most active
suspects in the population. Information
events is similarly limited to an inventory of
unsolved occurrences, including their ob-
served circumstances. The career offender
strategy or the post-detection matching strat-
egy may convert these unsolved occurrences
to clearances.
Final Parametric Estimation. Initial levels
for the interval parameter estimates were es-
tablished by model experimentation, with the
probability of case clearance generated by the
model being compared with that recorded for
the study year. The results are shown in Ta-
ble 15. Although it would have been possible
to replicate the clearance probabilities
exactly, that was not the intention of the pro-
cedure. Rather, it was desired to find a single
set of values for the parameters that would
work well for all the crime types.
Several changes were then made to these
values for the individual crime types to ob-
tain calculated clearance probabilities
to observed values (Table 15). As shown, the
computer model was able to predict the ac-
tual clearance probabilities accurately.
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
The goals of the economic analysis were:
economic evaluation of the criminal investi-
gation activities, analysis of the allocation of
resources among crime types, and measure-
ment of the sensitivity of the clearance rate
to different management decisions.
Economic Evaluation of Criminal
Investigation Activities
The slope of the “production” curve for each
activity was calculated by increasing the al-
location for that activity while keeping the
other allocations constant. Table 16 gives es-
timates for the slope of the “production” or
probability of clearance versus cost curve.
Estimates for the dollar cost for one more
pro-
clearance are shown in Table 17. Follow-up
investigation of occurrences (FIO) includes
about
investigation of suspects identified from the
observed circumstances, informants, or rec-
ords. Follow-up investigation of suspects (FIS)
about
is the investigation of suspects with a joint
set of related occurrences.
The negative values for surveillance in Ta-
ble 16 were due to the increase in the number
of sensed events. This is an example of one
of the deficiencies of clearance probability as
a criterion of success. The number of addi-
tional cases that are cleared may be a better
measure of success because it does not pen-
alize policies that lead to the sensing of ad-
ditional occurrences.
The negative value for arson/intelligence
in Table 16 resulted from different suspects
being chosen as targets for criminal intelli-
more
gence. This had a twofold effect. First, the
number of positive contacts with suspects de-
creased slightly. Second, the new suspects
displaced other, more active, suspects on the
historical suspect list, which reduced the ef-
fectiveness of follow-up investigations.
Note that, except for two instances, the
closer
learning activities had the highest slopes. The
dominance is quite distinct, and it indicates
that resources should be reallocated to the
preliminary investigation activity to increase
the probability of solution. From the infor-
mation processing perspective, more re-
sources should be allocated to learning about
the event and less to solving the event.
The relative importance of the identifica-
tion unit was unexpected. When estimating
the contribution for identification at the scene,
it appeared that this activity had a measur-
able, but small impact. Yet, on average, this
activity was second to preliminary investi-
gation, also a learning activity, with respect
to the sensitivity of case outcome to addi-
tional allocations of effort.
Since the only change attributable to iden-
tification technicians was the improvement of
the observed circumstances from no specific
evidence to suspect/vehicle information, it is
 Economics of Criminal Investigation 217

TABLE 15

PROBABILITY OF CLEARANCE

Model

Class Description Actual First Round Second Round

1. Homicide 1.0 .84 .88

2. Serious assault .87 .84 .87
3. Common assault .84 .82 .84
4. Sexual offenses .79 .77 .79
5. Offensive weapons .87 .79 .86
6. Robbery .64 .65 .64
7. Break and enter .33 .34 .33
8. Theft over $200 .20 .20 .21
9. Theft under $200 .30 .28 .30
10. Fraud .88 .78 .8_5
11. Vehicle theft .37 .29 .37
12. Arson .54 .52 .53
13. Vandalism .27 .28 .27
14. Bicycle theft .18 .16 .17
15. Shoplifting .95 .90 .94
16. Trespass/indecent act .64 .66 .65
17. Other criminal code .69 .68 .69

concluded that additional effort allocated to location position on the production curve so
discover and report suspect or vehicle infor- that the weight multiplied by the slope is the
mation at the scene will provide worthwhile same for all crime types. The slopes of the
benefits. Again, this highlights the impor- production curves, probabilities of clearance
tance of obtaining more, even if imperfect, as a function of resources allocated, were cal-
information during the initial investigation. culated and are shown in Table 18. The val-
ues ranged from a low of .47 X 10 - 6 to a
Economic Analysis of the Management of high of 21.0 X 10-6, a smaller range than
Resources Among Crime Types expected.
Lower slopes indicate that the police force
In general, the subset of activities: was further out on the respective production
curve and that those crime types should be
1. preliminary investigation-other units,
more important to the organization. If this is
2. preliminary investigation-identification, and
3. follow-up investigation of occurrences
not the case, improvements to the weighted
clearance rate can be made by reducing re-
had marginal productivities that are orders of sources allocated to crime types with lower
magnitude larger than the other activities, and values for the weighted slope and allocating
further analysis of allocation decisions is lim- the released resources to crime types with
ited to these activities. higher values. As a class, the personal crimes
Suppose the objective of the organization showed the most promise for increased effort
is to maximize a weighted clearance rate sub- allocations.
ject to a resource constraint, with importance Two crime types had questionably high
weights assigned to the different crime types. marginal values-sexual offenses and rob-
Then the optimal policy would be to examine bery. The high value for the sexual offenses
the production curves of the organization for category may be explained, to some extent,
each crime type and adjust the resources al- by the laws that were in effect at the time of
 TABLE 16

SLOPE OF THE PROBABILITYOF CLEARANCE CURVE (~10~‘)

Activity

Investigation Investigation
Preliminary of of
Crime Type Intelligence Surveillance Identification Investigution Occurrence Suspect

1. Homicide 0.00019 .0000007 1.56 0 .44 .0025

2. Serious assault .0002 1 .OOOl 0.0117 0 .1184 .00892
3. Common assault .00022 - .00003 .0194 2.030 .1097 .0024
4. Sexual offenses .00011 -.00157 .500 14.3 .0455 .0529
5. Offensive weapons .00017 .00020 0 ,148 ,981 .0169
6. Robbery .00074 .0032 .151 9.66 .371 .393
7. Break and enter .00099 .00080 .I34 .304 .00197 .00264
8. Theft over $200 .0020 .OOlO ,111 .314 .0043 .0044
9. Theft under $200 .00094 .00057 .0445 ,156 .0275 .00083
10. Fraud .00028 0 .0864 2.42 .0066 .0038
11. Vehicle theft .0092 .0006 .432 1.12 .0154 .0132
12. Arson -.0018 .0041 2.77 1.025 ,610 .584
13. Vandalism .00042 .00038 .lll ,278 .0012 .0006
14. Bicycle theft .00045 .0017 .159 .274 .0306 .0037
15. Shoplifting - .00018 - .0004 .00025 ,269 .0252 0
16. Trespass/indecent exposure .00024 - .00062 0 4.57 ,969 .0254
17. Other criminal code .00025 1 - .00005 .114 2.25 .00236 .00094
 TABLE 17

COST FOR AN ADDITIONAL CLEARANCE ($1000)

. Activity

Investigation Investigation
Preliminary of of
Crime Type Intelligence Surveillance Identification Investigation Occurrence Suspect

1. Homicide 167000 5 x 10’ 21.3 * 76.9 13700

2. Serious assault 909 526 16.7 * 1.64 21.7
3. Common assault 454 238 5.4 .051 .942 42.4
4. Sexual offenses 6250 14300 1.36 .047 14.9 12.82
5. Offensive weapons 2000 312.5 * 2.36 .357 20.8
6. Robbery 1430 106 7.14 ,111 2.9 2.74
7. Break and enter 35.1 41.7 .28 .122 18.8 14.1
8. Theft over $200 25.0 45.4 .50 .177 13.0 12.5
9. Theft under $200 28.1 37.6 .60 .I7 .96 31.9
10. Fraud 147 123 1.3 ,047 17.0 29.8
11. Vehicle theft 14.6 152 .31 .I2 8.77 10.2
12. Arson ** 350 .52 1.39 2.34 2.44
13. Vandalism 67.1 57.1 .25 ,101 23.8 45.4
14. Bicycle theft 114 25.6 .32 ,185 1.66 13.7
15. Shoplifting 53.8 45.4 276.2 .26 2.75 *
16. Trespassing/indecent
exposure 1110 141 * .058 .276 10.5
17. Other criminal code 27.0 286 .553 .028 26.8 67.6
*Infinity
**Negative value
 220 B. W. SIMMS and E. R. PETERSEN

TABLE 18

SENSITIVITY OF SOLUTION TO ADDITIONAL RESOURCE ALLOCATIONS

Cost for an
Slope of the Probability Additional
of Solution Curve Clearance Elasticity of
Crime Type (X 10-6) (Dollars) Solution

1. Homicide 3.89 85778.6 ,019

2. Serious assault .81 2403.8 ,044
3. Common assault 4.78 215.8 .215
4. Sexual offenses 18.3 371.0 ,352
5. Offensive weapons 8.09 432.7 ,152
6. Robbery 13.66 788.4 ,316
7. Break and enter ,466 797.4 ,263
8. Theft over $200 .607 913.4 .154
9. Theft under $200 .685 387.1 .209
10. Fraud 2.86 390.7 .181
11. Vehicle theft 1.35 993.7 .165
12. Arson 6.68 2134.2 ,152
13. Vandalism .48 588.5 .237
14. Bicycle theft 1.44 352.9 .188
15. Shoplifting 1.42 490.6 .I 24
16. Trespass/indecent act 21.0 127.3 .496
17. Other criminal code 3.11 203.1 .395

the study. That is, occurrences that normally
would have been cleared by charge were dif-
ficult to finalize because of victim reluctance
and uncertainty of conviction.
It is more difficult to explain why the slope
for robbery was so high. It was expected that
the slope would be somewhere between the
personal and property crimes. After further
examination, the high marginal value was
found to be due mostly to the preliminary in-
vestigation activity. It is possible that the
solving parameters used in this case were too
optimistic for robbery, especially since the
victim was always present.
Another interpretation is that the estimates
of the marginal values for robbery and sexual
assaults are correct, relative to the other es-
timates, and the police force does not realize
what the consequences of the current allo-
cations are, nor the relevance of the produc-
tion curve to resource allocation decisions. In
that case, the model can be used to help make
resource allocation decisions, and the calcu-
lated values indicate that some resources could
be reallocated from vandalism or theft to rob-
bery or sexual assault with good effect.
Two additional measures of solution sen-
sitivity were calculated-dollar cost for an
additional clearance and elasticity for the
number of clearances (Table 18). The costs
for an additional clearance were more con-
gruent with prior expectations. That is, ac-
cording to this measure, the crime types that
had the higher costs were perceived to be more
important.
Sensitivity of the Clearance Rates
For most of the crime types, the force was
operating on a very flat portion of the pro-
duction curves. This implies that the results
of resource allocation and other management
decisions may be quite small and hard to
measure because they would be masked by
the “white noise” of the organization process
and its environment.
Resource allocations to two crime types,
serious assault and break and enter. were var-
 Economics of Criminal Investigation 221

ied over a wide range to estimate the pro- five times the normalized value in order to
duction curve describing the probability of simulate perfect information at the scene (see
clearance as a function of effort. The relative figure 5).
resource allocation to stakeout, at-scene in- The production rate, or conditional prob-
vestigation (patrol and identification), and ability of clearance, is defined as the proba-
follow-up investigation of occurrences was bility of case clearance in the next small unit
kept constant while the annual allocation of of effort, given the case has not been cleared
resources was varied. The estimated produc- to that point. The production rates for the
tion curves are shown in figure 4. perfect information and base cases were es-
The production curves exhibit diminishing timated (figure 6). The two plateaus near the
marginal returns. That is, the incremental ef- vertical axis represent cases with arrest at the
fort required to increase production by one scene and accused named. At the point where
unit increases as total resources allocated in- all the cases with these two observed circum-
crease. Put another way, the effort required stances have been processed, the production
to change the clearance rate of break and en- rate rapidly decreases to a relatively low value
ters from five percent to ten percent is (much) and then remains approximately constant. Note
less than that required to change it from thirty that with perfect information there are more
percent to thirty-five percent. In both cases cases with accused named, and the remainder
the probability of clearance appears to be near of the production rate function dominates that
saturation for the current allocations, and ad- for the base case.
ditional clearances would be expensive. The production rate function divides the
To achieve a better understanding of the easy-to-solve from the difficult cases at ap-
sensitivity of outputs, the break and enter proximately .3 of current effort levels, and at
crime type was given further study. First, the the current allocation a significant amount of
resources allocated to preliminary investiga- resources are being allocated to the difficult
tion were doubled while keeping the other in- cases. In addition, since the production rate
dependent variables at their base vaiues. The for the difficult cases is approximately con-
probability that the case was cleared in- stant, the proportion of cases solved in dif-
creased to .38 from .33. Preliminary inves- ferent intervals of the same duration is about
tigation effort was then adjusted to twenty- the same (approximately a Poisson process).

.9 Serious Assault
.8
g .7
5
‘6
0’
3.5

Break and Enter

I I I 1 I I I I I
.I .2 .3 .4 .5 6 .7 .8 .9 1.0
Proportion of Current Allocation

Figure 4. Probability the Case is Resolved Successfully

 B. W. SIMMS and E. R. PETERSEN

1 I 1 1 I I I I I
.I .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 7 .8 .9
Proportion of current follow up effort
Figure 5. The Probability of Solution for Break and Enter

Perfect Information

.I .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9
Proportion of current follow up effort
Figure 6. The Production Rate for Break and Enter

This effect, coupled with the extremely flat proximately constant after some initial allo-
response surface, is consistent with previous cation, and the solution process for these more
empirical work in two ways. First, the con- difficult cases may indeed be random.
sequences of different resource allocations and Doubling allocations to preliminary inves-
changes in organizational form for the fol- tigation resulted in a quite small change of
low-up investigation activity would be ex- .33 to .38 in the clearance probability and,
tremely difficult to measure if only the dif- in an absolute sense, the probability of clear-
ficult cases are examined. Second, the ance is somewhat insensitive to changes in
production rate for the difficult cases is ap- resource allocations. This implies that em-
 Economics of Criminal Investigation 223

pirical studies undertaken to determine the data base, improvements in the probability of
effect of different preliminary investigation clearance are most sensitive to allocations to
decisions will have to make significant changes learning activities and somewhat less sensi-
in order to produce measurable results distin- tive to solving activities and quite insensitive
guishable from the “white noise.” to sensing activities. Taken at face value, this
would argue for more initial investigation re-
sources or improvements in at-scene data
CONCLUSIONS
gathering and reporting, which could involve
This article has presented a model of the patrol officers, identification technicians, or
criminal investigation process. A wide range detectives. We conclude that research aimed
of activities were included in the model, and at response screening models, stopping rules
an information search and processing per- for initial investigation, and the relative ef-
spective was used to model the activities. The fectiveness of different units during the initial
data requirements of a model that attempts to investigation will be quite productive. We also
analyze police management decisions were intend to examine the differences, if any, in
not easily met. Standard police data tend to patrol and detective conditional solving rates
be either operations or budget oriented, and in follow-up investigation.
there has been less attention paid to recording This study indicates that overall the rela-
links between information-decision-conse- tionship between clearances and criminal in-
quence when converting budgets to opera- telligence is weak. The impact of criminal in-
tions through resource allocation. Consider- telligence on specific criminal investigations
able effort was expended in manual collection is still considered to be an unresolved issue,
of nonstandard data, for example, data about however, and further study is warranted.
the information a detective has from the ini- The economic analysis of systems and pro-
tial investigation, the resources allocated to cesses is, of course, only part of the picture.
the investigation by the detective, and the Some crimes are more important than others,
results. perhaps due to political pressure, and police
The activity models provided insights and resource allocations must recognize the real
points of discussion with detectives and oth- and perceived needs of the serviced com-
ers that ultimately led the authors to a better munity. The economic analysis presented here,
understanding of police work and, they be- however, provides a necessary framework for
lieve, led police personnel to a better under- demonstrating economic responsibility and
standing of the economics of criminal inves- professionalism. Requests by police man-
tigation. Data, model elements, and other agers for changes in police budgets will con-
knowledge garnered during the study have tinue to be subject to increased scrutiny and
been used as examples and classroom mate- challenges. Arguments against delaying or
rial in an executive development course for denying the changes are weaker if they rely
senior police managers from 1985 to 1989, on consequences to police force inputs. The
which will continue. economic analysis we propose is pertinent to
The computer simulation, combined with predicting changes to the outputs if the inputs
standard principles of economic efficiency, change, and we argue that not only are these
provides a method of analyzing tactical and arguments more powerful, but they are also
strategic decisions in police organizations. This the right ones to make.
research has not answered the patrol/detec-
tive effectiveness question definitively. But it
is believed that the approach is a fruitful one
and provides much of the groundwork to ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

analyze the problem systematically and

This research was supported in part by the Natural
objectively. Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
Initial results indicate that, for the existing and the Canadian Police College.
 224 B. W. SIMMS and E. R. PETERSEN

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