How Is Climate Change Affecting Mexico?

Mexico is known for its incredible Rio Grande and the breathtaking Sierra Madres. For
centuries, the Mayan, Aztec, and Toltec people built their lives there. It was the birthplace
of renowned painters Frida Kahlo and Diego Rivera. But today, climate change is
transforming Mexico’s geography, environment, and future – a country that more than 120
million people call home.

As Mexico City’s chief resiliency officer, Arnoldo Kramer, said to The New York Times,
“Climate change has become the biggest long-term threat to this city’s future. And that’s
because it is linked to water, health, air pollution, traffic disruption from floods, housing
vulnerability to landslides — which means we can’t begin to address any of the city’s real
problems without facing the climate issue.”

And we’d argue the same is true for the rest of the nation – and the world. Climate change
touches every aspect of our lives.

Here are three leading ways climate change is already hitting Mexico and its people. Plus,
as a bonus, two ways you can take action today to help solve the climate crisis.

HEAT
Here’s the climate reality: Since the 1960s, Mexico has gotten warmer. And scientists expect
temperatures to keep rising.

In fact, by the end of this century, northern Mexico could see its average annual
temperatures rise by 3 – 4 degrees Celsius (about 5.4 – 7.2 Fahrenheit). And the rest of the
country? It could see temperatures climb by 1.5 – 2.5 degrees Celsius (about 2.7 – 4.5
Fahrenheit).

A few degrees might not seem like a big deal, but think of it this way: What’s the
difference between 0 and 1 degree Celsius? Well, that’s the difference between ice and
water. A small change in temperature can really disrupt the systems we depend on to
survive.

As Mexico (and our world) becomes warmer, the fingerprints of climate change can be
seen everywhere you look. Climate scientists observe impacts like sea-level rise, longer and
more intense wildfire seasons, and devastating droughts (just to name a few). And more
importantly, everyday people experience the effects.

WATER SECURITY AND DROUGHT

Here’s the climate reality: In Mexico, millions of people are at risk from a lack of adequate water
due to climate change. And water supplies are already strained because of other factors like
population growth.
Mexico City is especially thirsty. Centuries ago, the city (then called Tenochtitlan) was
known as “the Venice of the New World” because of its enormous lakes. But today,
Mexico City must pump water from deep underground – in fact, it gets “as much as 40
percent of its water from remote sources.”

Climate change, while not the only factor, is predicted to only make this dire situation
worse, and the impact will fall heaviest on poor communities. We’re already seeing these
inequities play out as water becomes scarce in cities like Cape Town, South Africa.

Water insecurity also means food insecurity. In 2011, Mexico had what was described as
its worst drought on record. More than 1.7 million cattle died of starvation or thirst – and
at least 2.2 million acres of crops withered across at least five states. The government was
forced to haul water to 1,500 villages and send food to farmers who lost all their crops. 


So, how is climate change related to drought? As humans release more and more
greenhouse gas emissions into the air, they trap more and more heat, meaning the air
temperatures rise. And as air temperatures rise, more moisture evaporates from land and
lakes, rivers, and other bodies of water. Warmer temperatures also increase evaporation in
soil, which affects plant life and can reduce rainfall even more.

AGRICULTURE
Here’s the climate reality: Climate change is making Mexico’s land far less suitable for growing
food and crops. And that’s already impacting families today.

In fact, climate change may lead to a 40 to 70 percent decline in Mexico’s current cropland
suitability by 
 2030. Worse, this could soar to an 80 to 100 percent decline by the end of
this century. We’re talking about Mexico potentially losing over half its workable farms in
less than 12 years – and all of them by 2100. That’s not cause for concern – it’s a
catastrophe in the making.


 Loss of cropland can 
 mean malnourished populations, displacement, and ultimately?

Permanent migration, especially by rural families.

"A lot of [of Mexican migration] is being driven either by vulnerability to crop loss, or
wage laborers losing their jobs because farmers can no long afford to hire them," said
Arizona State University development economist Valerie Mueller.

HERE’S WHAT YOU CAN DO

Every year, Climate Realty trains thousands of new Climate Reality Leaders – everyday
citizens who are committed to solving the climate crisis. At our Climate Reality Leadership
Corps trainings, attendees work with former US Vice President Al Gore and leading
climate scientists and communicators to learn how inspire action in their own communities.