Earth-Science Reviews - Elsevier Publishing C o m p a n y - Printed in The Netherlands

CURRENT TRENDS IN GEOMATHEMATICS

J. C. G R I F F I T H S 1
Department of Geology, State Geological Survey, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas (U.S.A.)

SUMMARY

Geoscience has extended its role and improved its applications by the
development of geophysics since the nineteen-thirties, geochemistry since the nine-
teen-fifties and now, in the late nineteen-sixties, a new synergism leads to geo-
mathematics; again the greatest pressure for change arises from areas of application
of geoscience and, as the problems to which geoscience is applied increase in
complexity, the analytical tools become more sophisticated, a development which
is accelerated by growth in the use of computers in geological problem-solving.
In the next decade the problems with greatest public impact appear to be the
ones which will receive greatest emphasis and support. This will require that the
geosciences comprehend exceedingly complex probabilistic systems and these, in
turn, demand the use of operations research, cybernetics and systems analysis.
Such a development may well lead to a change in the paradigms underlying geo-
science; they will certainly include more realistic models of "real-world" systems
and the tool of simulation with cybernetic models may well become the basis for
rejuvenation of experimentation in the geosciences.

INTRODUCTION

' . . . the e n o r m o u s usefulness o f mathematics in the natural sciences is something bordering

on the mysterious and there is n o rational explanation for it.'
E. P. WIGNER, 1960

Mathematics, physics and chemistry are generally understood to be the

basis for scientific work in the natural sciences of geology, biology, and astronomy
and advances in any area of science are usually associated with advances in these
basic sciences. Geoscience commenced as a descriptive science in the age of
descriptive sciences, the nineteenth century, and it was not until the nineteen-
twenties that the growth of geophysics demonstrated the tremendous value of
the application of physics and its associated mathematics to problems in geoscience.
Perhaps it is also worth emphasizing that the impact of physics on geoscience
was first felt, to any strong degree, in the search for petroleum resources, an

1 Present address: State College, Pa. (U.S.A.)

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122 J.C. GRIFFITHS

applied field. Subsequently in the nineteen-thirties, and much more strongly

after World War II, in the nineteen-fifties, geochemistry reached its climax; and
again the contribution it makes to prospecting for natural resources, and its
applications to "materials science", are the main sources of its growing strength.
Much more recently, particularly in the nineteen-sixties, the effects of the syner-
gism of mathematics and geoscience are leading to an explosive growth of geo-
mathematics. Once more the main pressures leading to this growth arise in
areas of applied geoscience and spill over into the area of pure geoscience. It seems
evident, as described by KUHN (1962), that the paradigms of a science are very
difficult to replace and that revolutionary change in paradigms is largely forced
by successes in areas where success may be simply and obviously measured such
as in areas where the science is used for practical problem-solving.
The role of mathematics in the rise of science is amply documented by
WIGNER (1960), KUHN (1962) and BOCHNER (1966), and it is no mere coincidence
that the illustrative examples of the salutory effects of mathematics on science are
almost exclusively drawn from the domains of physics and astronomy; geology
and biology have been much slower to adopt "the language of science". Perhaps
it is as well to realize why this has happened and an examination of the complexity
of the problems in the different areas may illustrate the difficulties; BEER (1964,
p. 12 ft.) offers a "classification of systems" and the associated mathematical tools
for their analysis (see Fig.l). It can readily be recognized that most of the problems

Exceedingly
Systems Simple Complex Complex
Electronic
Window Catel" Digital Comp.
Bill lards Planetary Empty
Deterministic System
Machlne-Shop
Lay-out Automation J

Penny Tossing i Stockholdlng The Economy

Jellyfish Coedltloned The Brain
Probabillstlc Movements Reflexes
Statistical Industrial
~uallty Contr, Profttabillty The Company
/

/ A+y++:/, s
Fig.l. A classification of systems (modified after BEER, 1964 by permission of Wiley,
New York).
in geology and biology fall in the lower half (probabilistic systems) of the table and
by far the most interesting and pressing problems may be classified as complex to
exceedingly complex probabilistic systems. The mathematics or calculi (or dialec-
tics) for discussing and defining these problems, operations research, cybernetics
and systems analysis, are of very modern vintage and so it is only recently that
mathematics could play its synergistic role in problem-solving in the geosciences.
This also suggests that the role to be played by mathematics in the natural sciences
demands a different kind of mathematics from that used to date in physics and

Earth-Sci. Rev., 6 (1970) 121-140

CURRENT TRENDS IN GEOMATHEMATICS 123

chemistry and that undergraduate curricula should perhaps be designed somewhat

differently in this respect to train students for their future activities in the sciences
of geology and biology (HARBAU6H, 1965).
One other feature needs to be mentioned and it is not often given the
attention it deserves; mathematics is not the sole aspect which must be modified
for the future rise of science but the accompanying philosophy of method, the
scientific method, also needs to be changed; consider the following quotation:
" . . . it is fair to say that mathematics is the language of science in a deep
sense. Mathematics is an indispensable medium by which and within which science
expresses, formulates, continues, and communicates itself. And just as the language
of true literacy not only specifies and expresses thoughts and processes of thinking
but also creates them in turn, so does mathematics not only specify, clarify and
make rigorously workable concepts and laws of science which perhaps, partially
at least, could be put forward without it; but at certain crucial instances it is an
indispensable constituent of their creation and emergence as well". (BOCHNER,
1966, p.256.) ~
It may be seen that while mathematics is used as a suitably rigorous mode
of expression, i.e., a language, it is the interaction between this language and "the
processes of thinking" that leads to creative solutions to the problems which face
us. It cannot be over-emphasized that to improve our success in problem-solving
in the geosciences it is necessary to adopt not only new tools of analysis but new
ways of thinking about the problems and new ways of using these tools. In fact
the use of mathematics is one aspect of the scientific method, or the total epistemo-
logy of problem-solving, and this methodology interacting with the advance of
science, involves a feedback which leads to the mutual progress of both science and
method. Again, geomathematics may be looked upon as a specialized aspect of
quantification and is the final step in the procedure which continues from ob-
servation to classification to comparative concepts with nonmetrical ordering and
finally to a full metricization of a concept (HEMPEL, 1952); the geosciences appear
to be well on their way towards metricization in many of the active areas. How-
ever, in most cases, the present tendency is to add quantification or numerology
to conventional practice rather than to re-examine the tenets and underlying
philosophical principles and by a renewal of paradigms generate a breakthrough
in problem-solving in geoscience. It seems likely that adoption of modern mathe-
matics and modern aspects of the scientific method will lead to revolution in the
paradigmatic foundations of geoscience and this aspect, rather than the adoption
of mathematics as an ancillary tool to conventional practice, will ultimately be
the most rewarding contribution of geomathematics.

t Quotation by permission of Princeton University Press.

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124 J . C . GR1FFITHS

CURRENT RATE OF GROWTH OF GEOMATHEMATICS

It is well known that the decades of the nineteen-fifties and nineteen-sixties

are characterized by an information explosion and all areas of knowledge show
an exponential growth in the numbers of publications; the fact that the number of
papers on geomethematics is increasing, is therefore not necessarily a reflection of
an exceptional growth of geomathematics, unless it can be shown that the rate of
increase in geomathematics exceeds that of the associated areas. As a basis for
comparison, publications in several geoscience magazines are classified into those
which include the use of mathematics and computers and those that do not in

TABLE I
FREQUENCY BY NUMBER OF PAGES OF ARTICLES IN WHICH COMPUTERS ARE USED ( 1 9 5 7 - 1 9 6 7 ) t

Publication Range Average

(%) (~)
American Mineralogist 0-6 2
Geochimiea et Cosmochimiea Acta 0-6 3
Journal of Geology 0-22 6
American Journal of Science 0-2 1
Bulletin Geological Society of America z 0.25-3.25 2
Geokhimia 0-1.8 1
Mineralogical Magazine 0~).4 1
Doklady 0~).9 1
Economic Geology 0-5.3 2
Journal Geophysical Research 0-15 -

Data f r o m Dr. C. W. Ondrick supplied t h r o u g h the courtesy of Dr. A. Muan, Department of

Geochemistry and Mineralogy, The Pennsylvania State University.
'~ Including abstracts.

terms of the percentage of pages devoted to each class in Table I; these figures are
hardly impressive. They suggest that geomathematics is in its early stages if it is

T A B L E II
FREQUENCY OF DESCRIPTIVE~ NUMERICAL~ STATISTICAL, AND TOTAL NUMBER OF PAPERS IN THE
Journal of Palaeontology

Years Descriptive ~ Numerical Statistical Total

-1930 90 4 - 94
1931-1935 148 1 - 149
1936-1940 265 1 - 266
1941-1945 245 10 1 256
1946-1950 285 7 3 295
1951-1955 237 41 8 286
1956-1960 338 60 10 408
1961-1965 349 84 6 439

1 N u m b e r s sometimes included in fossil descriptions.

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CURRENT TRENDS IN GEOMATHEMATICS 125

growing at all. A somewhat more illuminating comparison is obtained by classifying

articles into three groups, descriptive, numerical and statistical, and plotting their
growth rates. Two examples are given using the Journal of Palaeontology and the
Journal of Sedimentary Petrology as representative samples from two different
fields of geoscience (Table 1I, III and Fig.2, 3). The descriptive articles are those
which do not include numbers; the numerical articles are descriptive and include
tables of numbers and various charts and graphs but which contain no analysis;
whereas the statistical articles include papers which analyze the collected data
using statistical analysis at various levels of sophistication. The statistical class
also contains a very few articles in these two magazines which include mathe-
matical analysis other than statistics.

TABLE Ili

FREQUENCY OF DESCRIPTIVE, NUMERICAL~ STATISTICAL~ AND TOTAL NUMBER OF PAIa'ERS IN THE

Journal of Sedimentary Petrology

Years Descriptive Numerical Statistical Total

1931-1935 36 29 5 70
1936-1940 t 30 33 11 74
1941-1945 35 22 13 70
1946-1950 56 19 10 85
1951-1955 81 40 14 135
1956-1960 106 74 47 227
1961-1965 140 108 63 311

1937 not available so figures were prorated f r o m other years in this period.

500 • Total Number of Papers 100

• Number oF Numerical Papers 9o g_

r, 400 80

70
_~ 300 6o

Z 50

~_ 200 40 7
30
100 20
Z
10
0 0
193L 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970
Five Year Period

Fig.2. F r e q u e n c y of numerical, statistical a n d total n u m b e r of articles in the Journal of

Paleontology (1930-1965).

Earth-Sei. Rev., 6 (1970) 121-140

126 J. C. GRIFFITHS

It seems clear that articles classified as numerical in the Journal of Palaeonto-

logy show a marked growth but statistical articles are only increasing slowly
(Table II, Fig.2); this appears to imply that whereas palaeontologists are in-
creasingly replacing descriptive terms by counts and measurements, they are using
these symbols as shorthand for description but are not subjecting the numbers to

600 t10
• Tutu[ Number of Papers
• Number of NumerlcuL Pupen
100
• Number of Stotist[cul PupePs

500 9O

o_
80

400 7o .c
Z
6o ~

300 50 .u
Z
a
40 ~

200
Z
20

100

0 I i I I I I 0
1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970
Five Year Period

Fig.3. Frequency of numerical, statistical and total number of articles in the Journal of
Sedimentary Petrology (1931-1965).

analysis. The same trend, increasing numerical records in place of qualitative

description, is reflected in articles in the Journal of Sedimentary Petrology, but
here statistical analysis of the numbers is also showing a marked increase, although
not at the same rate (Table III and Fig.3).
Merriam (in HARBAUGH and MERRIAM, 1968, fig.l-l, p.2) illustrates an
increase in the number of articles dealing with computers in geology from a very
few in 1955 to about 100 per annum in the nineteen-sixties; since it is obvious that
this increase is not evident in Tables I-III, i.e., in the conventional science journals,
there must be special publications which include these articles and many are listed
under symposia and computer contributions in the references.
Another aspect which illustrates that the field of geomathematics is still
in its early infancy may be obtained by noting the number of authors quoted in
modern textbooks; two such texts are analyzed in this fashion in Table IV. There
are some 300-350 authors quoted and only a dozen or so are quoted ten times or
more; a beginner may therefore obtain a fairly wide grasp of the use of statistics

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CURRENT TRENDS IN GEOMATHEMATICS 127

TABLE IV

FREQUENCY OF REFERENCES TO AUTHORS IN TEXTBOOKS

No. o f times Frequency a Frequency 2

author is o f authors
referred to

1 198 188
2 73 59
3 23 32
4 15 19
5 8 5
6 5 4
7 4 4
8 3
9 4
10 1 1
11 3 1
12 1 3
13 - 1
14 1 3
15 3
16 12 13
19 1
21 1
27 1
28
29
37 1

Total 345 324

1 MILLERand KAHN (1962).

2 KRUMBEINand GRAYBILL(1965).

in geoscience b y r e a d i n g the w o r k s o f say the dozen m o s t - q u o t e d a u t h o r s (those

q u o t e d ten times or m o r e in T a b l e I V ) ' .
The n u m b e r o f t e x t b o o k s a n d m o n o g r a p h s in the field is also an indication
o f its p o p u l a r i t y a n d in this respect there are, at present, less t h a n ten such publi-
cations in the a r e a o f g e o m a t h e m a t i c s (see references). Largely t h r o u g h the efforts
o f Dr. R. A. R e y m e n t , the I n t e r n a t i o n a l A s s o c i a t i o n o f M a t h e m a t i c a l G e o l o g y
( I . A . M . G . ) was c r e a t e d at the I n t e r n a t i o n a l Congress in P r a g u e in 1968, with
A. B. Vistelius as its first president; this association will l e a d to a special publi-
c a t i o n outlet for articles in g e o m a t h e m a t i c s .

1 This procedure may be recommended as an appropriate means for combating the exponential
growth in publications because it serves to filter out the main contributors to the field.

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128 J. C. GRIFFITHS

THE GROWTH OF QUANTITATIVE METHODS

The level of maturation of a field of knowledge is frequently measured by

its degree of sophistication in the use of mathematics and it is of some interest,
therefore, to note that the geosciences are undergoing increasing quantification
as illustrated above by the growth in the number of articles in which numbers are
used in place of qualitative description; it is also evident that the major part of
geoscience is still not at a very sophisticated level of analysis. This is all the more
surprising because one of the founders of geology (Lyell, 1797-1875) used a
statistical argument to establish the stratigraphic succession in the Tertiary
(FISHER, 1953); similarly H. C. Sorby, one of the outstanding contributors to
sedimentary petrology, advocated the use of quantitative methods in his pioneering
contributions (e.g., SORBV, 1880, 1908). Again, one of the most remarkable
articles on the scientific method was written by CHAMBERLIN(1897) concerning
the method of analysis of problems in the field of geoscience (geological episte-
mology).
The replacement of qualitative by quantitative concepts may be illustrated
by tracing the historical development of two areas of sedimentary petrology, the
study of accessory heavy minerals (BosWELL, 1933) and the popular procedure of
grain-size analysis.
Accessory heavy minerals were first considered as a curiosity in the early
seventeen-hundreds (DE REAMUR, 1718) and their study was largely descriptive
through the early 19th century; ARTINI (1898) first suggested the replacement of
qualitative descriptive terms by numerals to represent frequencies. He proposed
a scale of 10 for rare through 1 for abundant and thus ordered the values; SALMO-
JARGHI (1904) suggested reversing the scale with increasing numerals representing
increasing frequency although this one-to-one mapping left the information con-
tent unchanged. FLEET (1926) determined the frequency of heavy minerals by
counting and a number of investigators then attempted to determine the level of
precision--where precision implies reproducibility not accuracy or meaning--and
its relationship to the number counted (e.g., DRYDEN, 1931; KRUMBEIN and
PETTIJOHN, 1938; R1TTENHOUSE, 1940); despite the improvement in precision, the
applications of heavy mineral analysis do not seem to have progressed very far
in terms of accuracy or meaning and perhaps this may be attributed to difficulties
in the scale of measurement. Percentage scales are not very simple to specify with
any exactness; most investigators imagine that the difference (distance) between
0 and 1 and 1 and 2~o is much more important than the difference (distance)
between 51 and 5 2 ~ ; this implies that even with large numbers of items counted
and apparently high precision the information or scale level is still ordinal, i.e.,
at the same level as when Artini first advocated the adoption of an ordinal scale.
Taken together with the difficulties of pseudo-correlation among numbers which

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CURRENT TRENDS IN GEOMATHEMATICS 129

sum to a constant, discussed by CHAYES (1949, t960, 1962), this leaves much to be
desired in the quantification of accessory mineral data.
The measurement of grain size was quantified at an early date by UDDEN
(1898) and the variate was expressed graphically in histograms on a logarithmic
scale. This area of investigation in the geosciences remained at the numerical
level until VAN ORSTRAND (1925) recommended using summary statistics and later
WENTWORTH (1929) advocated logarithmic moments as representative summary
statistics. However it was not until KRUMBEIN (1934, 1936a, 1938) transformed
grain size, measured in millimeters or microns, to phi units that statistical tech-
niques began to be generally adopted in this field; even now it is customary to
perform measurements in so many different ways that the information or scale
level differs markedly from one technique to another. Indirect size measurement,
such as sieving and pipette sedimentation, leads to ordinal scale measures and
order statistics such as the median, quartile deviation, etc. advocated by KRUM-
BE1N (1946b) are the conventional summary statistics; improvements have been
suggested by INMAN (1952) and by FOLK and WARD (1957) but these are still
ordinal measures. Direct measurement on individual components, on the other
hand, leads to data on a ratio scale and because the log (phi) transformation is
a one-to-one mapping, the information remains at the ratio level thus preserving
the metric in the original data.
Many more studies of scale level are required to determine the information
content of data collected in the common experimental procedures in use in the
geosciences (GRIFFITHS, 1960). In particular, field description, with or without
comparative standards, is a subjective assessment procedure and needs careful
standardization to remove the effect of operator variation, including both variation
among different operators and within one operator at different times (see for
example ROSENFELD and GR1FFITHS, 1953; GRIFFITHS and ROSENFELD, 1954;
GRIFFITHS, 1967). In this respect it would be advisable to attempt to follow
Stevens' recommendations to upgrade the level of information and raise the scale
level of our observations from ordinal to interval at least (STEVENSand GALANTER,
1957; STEVENS, 1959, 1968). Remote sensing using robot observers and filtered
and digitized transformations of the observations will bear careful scrutiny to
decide what information is really preserved in the final published data (WoBaER,
1967); it has taken geophysics a long time to find the appropriate transforms
(TUKEY, 1965), to supply geologic interpretations in information modes acceptable
to most geologists.

CURRENT STATUSOF GEOMATHEMATICALANALYSIS

Geophysics has, as would be expected, always relied heavily on mathe-

matical analysis generally using the Newton-Leibniz calculus or its modern more
sophisticated versions; somewhat more recently, spectral analysis and information

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130 J.c. GRIFFITHS

theory concepts have been adopted (AGTERBERG, 1964; TUKEY, 1965) suggesting
that the problems of the physics of the earth are not complex deterministic but
complex probabilistic (see Fig.l). It seems likely that as investigations encompass
problems impinging directly on human populations, such as arise in the prediction
of earthquakes, volcanic outbursts, tsunamis and the detection of man-made
underground explosions, the philosophy and mathematics will embrace those
tools of analysis especially suited to the solution of exceedingly complex prob-
abilistic systems (Fig.l).
Mathematics associated with geochemistry is Gibbsian and largely derived
via thermodynamics and again, the differential equation is one of the main bases
of analysis; since the phase rule is one form of the Euler equation describing the
relationships among edges, and corners of regular polygons; there is an obvious
extension to the Euler relationship for irregular polygons which may be used as
the analysis increases in sophistication. Similarly, since entropy, in a sense, is an
equivalent of information (i.e., H = - Z p log p, SHANNON and WEAVER, 1963)
then the concepts of statistics associated with information theory may become
useful analytical tools in problems of phase-rule geochemistry; other areas of
geochemistry lead to percentage-type data and the earlier remarks on such scales
also apply here. Statistics enters quite readily into the investigation of the abundance
of elements in the earth's crust (the population) and some formidable problems
of sampling (KRUMBEIN, 1960) arise in estimating averages and magnitudes of
variation in these studies (GRIFFITHS and ONDRICK, 1968). As is common, this
problem is more acute in the applied areas of geochemical prospecting (DAHLBERG,
1968) and in estimation of reserves (see articles and references in Symposium on
Ore Valuation, South African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, 1966) than in
the purely scientific studies of crustal abundance (AHRENS, 1954a, b, 1957; CHAVES,
1954; JIZBA, 1959; ViSTELIUS, 1960; SHAW, 1961).
Stratigraphy, paleontology and sedimentology, following somewhat different
routes, have adopted statistics, commencing with univariate analysis, including the
establishment of frequency distributions, summary statistics, tests of significance
and analysis of variance; this era (1930-1950) is followed by additions of bivariate
analysis (simple regression and correlation, e.g., GRIFFITHS, 1959) and more
recently (nineteen-sixties) the popular tools are multivariate (e.g., BURMA, 1949;
M~LL~R and KAHN, 1962), embracing discriminants, both simple (EMERY and
GRIFFITHS, 1954; CHAYES and VELDE, 1965) and multiple (MCINTYRE, 1962;
HARRm, 1965a, b), multiple regression (GRIFFITHS, 1958; KRUMBEIN, 1959; CHOR-
LEY, 1964), trend surface analysis (KRUMBEIN, 1955; KRUMBEm and GRAYBILL,
1965) and factor analysis (IMBRIEand PURDY, 1962; IMBRIE 1963, 1964; GRlVFITHS,
1963; GRIFFITHS and SMITH, 1964; SPENCER, 1966a, b; KLOVAN, 1968). A con-
temporary collection of articles on these multivariate tools is contained in the
September 1966 issue of the Journal of Geology (see MCCAMMON, 1966).
Current developments tend towards the construction of models, for example

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CURRENT TRENDS IN GEOMATHEMATICS 131

the process-response models of KRUMBEIN and SLOSSin stratigraphy (1963) and of

WHITTEN in igneous petrology (1964); stochastic models, such as those based on
Markov processes are also gradually coming into use (VISTELIUS, 1949, 1967;
ZELLER, 1964; VlSTELIUS and FEIGL'SON, 1965; AGTERBERG, 1966; W1CKMAN,
1966; KRUMBEIN, 1967, 1968). A problem-solving algorithm, associated with an
interpretive model, for the petrology of detrital sediments has also been proposed
(GRIFFITHS, 1966b).
Quantification in geomorphology commenced with the pioneering work of
HORTON (1945) who introduced the concept of "stream order" which was later
developed by STRAHLER(e.g., 1957) and is now expressed in terms of topological
network and graph theoretic concepts (SCHE1DEGGER, 1965, 1967; RANALLI and
SCHEZDE6GER, 1968); entropy and its information analogue, already mentioned in
connection with geochemistry, also appears here as a possible model for landscape
processes and evolution (LEOPOLD and LANGBEIN, 1962). Random walks are also
introduced as possible models for stream drainage networks (LEOPOLD and LAN6-
BEIN, 1962) and as an explanation of cave directions (CURL, 1959).
it seems reasonably obvious that most areas of geoscience are succumbing
to quantification in one form or another and that a wide range of the tools of
mathematical analysis with varying degrees of sophistication is being applied to
geoscience problems.

POTENTIAL FUTURE OF GEOMATHEMATICS

Geomathematics is at present in its infancy but it exhibits strong growth

trends despite the fact that it is not, at present, a common feature in the con-
ventional literature of geoscience; since most growth curves appear to be ex-
ponential (GOODE and MACHOL, 1957) and eventually follow the ogive it seems
likely that geomathematics is in for an accelerating period of growth in the next
few decades. It may also be predicted, based on historical development of the field
and its current activities, that the direction of evolution points from consideration
of geological problems as representing simple deterministic systems towards the
"real-world" outlook in which the more interesting and immediate problems are
of the exceedingly complex probabilistic type (see Fig.l). If this view is correct
then the analytical tools, and their accompanying methodology and philosophy, will
emphasize operations research, cybernetics and systems analysis (VON BERTAL-
ANFFY, 1962); that this view is not completely wrong may be seen by examining the
literature on the applied areas in which the failure of conventional tools, or at
least their diminishing return characteristics, makes the problem of survival acute.
For this purpose we may survey the literature in mining and to a lesser
degree in petroleum exploration and development; the U.S.A. and, to some degree,
the Western Bloc, is facing shortages of raw materials within their own areas of
control and the act of finding and exploiting these raw materials, as they become

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132 J. C. GRIFFITHS

scarcer and more expensive to locate, is increasing in difficulty at a rapid rate.

This problem implies that to attain the orders of magnitude of improvement
required to keep a safe reserve of raw materials on hand, it will be necessary to
find a breakthrough in the philosophy of exploration. The activities in search
theory during World War II suggests that many of the mathematical models
devised for search may be adapted to exploration (e.g., SLICHTER, 1955, 1960;
KOOPMAN, 1956, 1957; ALLA1S, 1957; DE GUENIN, 1961; GRIFF1THS and DREW,
1964; GRIFF~THS,1966C, 1967); these several developments represent the application
of operations research to problems in the applied areas of geoscience (VENTURA,
1956; GRWFITHS, 1968). There seems little question that the search for nonrene-
wable natural resources will require an improved strategy, rather than emphasis
on tactics as represented by the dominant activities of the last few decades.
Similarly there are a few "straws in the wind" which suggest that the mental
approach to problem-solving in the geosciences is changing from that of complex
probabilistic models to exceedingly complex probabilistic models in which emphasis
on cybernetics and systems analysis are being considered as suitable tools for
analysis (CHORLEY, 1962; REYMENT, 1967; LEA, 1968).
It may be as well at this juncture to consider a few of the difficulties which
these most recent developments portend; the principle of uniformitarianism is one
of the fundamental tenets of geoscience dialectic and reduced to its most elementary
terms the principle implies that the present is the key to the past. However, when
one embraces Markov processes as possible models for geological event sequences
it is clear that one is setting severe restrictions on the "memory" of the system.
In the simplest one-step Markov process (GRWFITHS, 1966a; KRUMBEI~, 1967)
the present depends on the immediate past but is independent of all previous
stages. Furthermore, if the process is regular ergodic (KEMENY and SNELL, 1960;
GRIFFITHS, 1966a) it achieves an equilibrium state (a constant probability vector)
which gives no clue as to the steps in its achievement. Similar features are included,
implicitly, in following the origin of detrital sediments wherein the process of
selective sorting may obliterate most if not all signs of the original source area
(GRIFFITHS, 1966b) and explicitly, in simulation models such as the delta-building
model of Harbaugh (HARBAUGH, 1966; HARBAUGH and MERRIAM, 1968).
A second rather disturbing development arises in considering the "Goedel
Incompleteness Theorem" (BEER, 1964, 1966); essentially this implies that given
any logically consistent system which is, for example, equivalent to the rules and
operations of arithmetic, questions arise which are undecidable within the system
but which may be seen to be true by an observer outside the system (LucAs, 1964;
NAGEL and NEWMAN, 1967). Somewhat loosely this may be taken to mean that
there may be many questions within a specific scientific system, such as that of
geoscience, which are unresolvable in terms of the language of the system; these
questions require the invention of a metalanguage which may be used to define the
questions in a form amenable to solution (BEER, 1964, 1966). Examples of such

Earth-Sci. Rev., 6 (1970) 121-140

CURRENT TRENDS IN GEOMATHEMATICS 133

questions are likely to be of the form "what is the origin of" oil, granite, uranium,
etc. The origin of granite formed the basis for a lively debate during the nineteen-
forties and fifties although the question is now more lucidly posed as "how much
granite is formed this way and how much that", a question unresolvable without
a quantitative language for its expression, not to mention some numerical estimates
to substantiate it.
There are likely to be many questions which have received considerable
attention and continue to be unanswered which are Goedelian in form and/or
content; the metalanguage within which these questions are resolvable will require
the logical rigor of computer languages rather than the somwhat less rigorous mode
of expression currently in use in the geosciences.
Such questions as the proper allocation of priorities in the conservation of
natural resources are even more complex, and more explosive, than the con-
ventional scientific questions and the geoscientist has been woefully lax in turning
his attention to these exceedingly complex probabilistic systems which include
interactions with people, politics and decisionmaking. It will almost certainly be
necessary to introduce a metalanguage for the resolution of these questions which
remain stubbornly Goedelian in the present-day language of geoscience.
As a final example it may be mentioned that one of the practices in adopting
the combination of recorders, mathematics, computers and interpreters which
compose the "black-box technology" approach to problem-solving in the geo-
sciences is to compare the outcome with that obtained from the more conventional
intuitive mode of reasoning from observations to conclusions (Fig.4); if the out-

"~NTU I T/VE" /?

INPUT //I ~\ J/ ~, y .I-_ ~ OUTPUT

Simple-Linear - One-to-One

Mathematics Computer Interpretation

Statistics

BLACK BOX TECHNOLOGY

Fig.4. Comparison of outcomes of geological problem-solving in terms o f t h e " i n t u i t i v e "

and "black-box technology" methods.

comes match, it is believed that something has been accomplished and indeed it
is possible that time has been conserved in using the automatic system. What,
however, is this kind of comparison supposed to demonstrate, surely not that the
black-box technology is an appropriate tool for analysis, because that has been
independently established outside geoscience. Indeed this comparison suggests a

Earth-ScL Rev., 6 (1970) 121-140

134 J . c . GRIFFITHS

somewhat less charitable interpretation based on scale theory; the level of infor-
mation in a set of data may be scaled by deciding the type of transformation to
which the data are invariant (STEVENS, 1959). Now, as represented in Fig.4, if
the outcome of the analysis of some data is similar whether the data are submitted
to the (non-linear)intricacies of intuitive reasoning or to the simpler transforma-
tions of the black-box type of logic, then, in effect, the information level of the data
cannot be better than ordinal; the match may therefore be a reflection of the fact
that there is not much information in the original set of observations.
It appears likely that as geomathematics expands its use in geoscience
there will indeed be an enforced change in the paradigms of the science as described
by KUHN for physics (1962). The modern philosophy of science (BRONOWSKI,
1960) raises some exciting possibilities of embracing much more complex systems
than have hitherto been seriously considered and this is of direct importance in
the development of geomathematics and its applications to geoscience, for example,
the implications of the Heisenberg principle of indeterminacy at the macroscopic
level (BRONOWSK1, 1960; BEER, 1964, 1966) or the question of cause and effect
when Einstein demonstrates the difficulty, if not impossibility, of establishing
simultaneity (BRoNOWSKI, 1960; BEER, 1966). These, and manymore fundamentals
will be modified as analysis advances into the domain of the exceedingly complex
and these developments are largely inexorable as our analytical tools change to
meet the new challenges. It is perhaps encouraging, at least to the paleontologist,
that one of the central analogue models may well be the organism or, more properly,
the system of organic evolution.

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GRIFVITHS, J. C., 1963. Statistical approach to the study of potential oil reservoir sandstones.
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GRIFW~-HS, J. C., 1966b. A genetic model for the interpretive petrology of detrital sediments.
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GRIFFITHS, J. C., 1966c. Exploration for natural resources. J. Operations Res. Soc. Am., 14:189-209.
GRIFFITHS, J, C., 1967. Mathematical exploration strategy and decision-making. World Petrol.
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GRIFFITHS J. C., 1968. Operations research in the mineral industries. Proc. Syrup. Decision
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GRIFFITHS J. C. and DREW, L. J., 1964. Simulation of exploration programs for natural resources
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GRiFvrrrIs J. C. and ONDRICK, C. W., 1968. Sampling a geological population. Univ. Kansas,
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GRIFFITHS J. C. and ROSENFELD, M. A., 1954. Operator variation in experimental research. J.
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GRIFH+HS J. C. and SMIXH, C. M., 1964. Relationship between volume and axes of some quartzite
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HARBAUGH J. W., (Chairman), 1965. Mathematics recommendations for undergraduate geology
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HARBAUGH, J. W., 1966. Mathematical simulation of marine sedimentation with IBM 7090/7094
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|NMAN, D. L., 1952. Measures for describing the size distribution of sediments. J. Sediment.
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puter Contrib., 26, 38 pp.

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KRUMBEIN, W. C. and PETTIJOHN, F. J., 1938. Manual of Sedimentary Petrography. Appleton-

Century, New York, N.Y., 549 pp.
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Textbooks and monographs

GRIFFITHS, J. C., 1967. Scientific Method in the Analysis of Sediments. McGraw-Hill, New York,
N.Y., 508 pp.
HARBAUGH, J. W. and MERRIAM, O. F., 1968. Computer Applications in Stratigraphic Analysis'.
Wiley, New York, N.Y., 282 pp.
KRUMBEIN, W. C. and GRAYBILL, F. A., 1965. An Introduction to Statistical Models in Geology.
McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y., 475 pp.
MARSAL, O., 1967. Statische Methoden fiir Erdwissenschafter. Schweizerbart, Stuttgart, 152 pp.
MATHERON, G., 1962. Trait6 de g6ostatisque appliqu6e. Mkm. Bur. Rech. G{ol. Minikres, 14: 333.
MILLER, R. L. and KAHN, J. S., 1962. Statistical Analysis in the Geological Sciences. Wiley,
New York, N.Y., 483 pp.
SHARAPOV, I., 1965. Applications of Mathematical Statistics in Geology. Niedra, Moscow, 260 pp.
(in Russian).
VISTELIUS,A. B., 1967. Studies in Mathematical Geology. Consultants Bureau, New York, N.Y.,
294 pp.

Symposia

BRITISH COLUMBIA RESEARCH COUNCIL,1968. Proceedings of a symposium on decision-making in

mineral exploration. Western Miner, 42 pp.
COLLEGE OF MINES, 1962. Computer Short Course and Symposium on Mathematical Techniques and
Computer Applications in Mining and Exploration. College of Mines, Univ. Arizona,
Tucson, 1:318 pp.; 2:183 pp.
DOTSON, J. C. (Editor), 1961. Short Course on Computers and Computer Applications in the
Mineral Industry. College of Mines, Univ. Arizona, Tucson, l: 146 pp.; 2:140 pp.
DOTSON, J. C. and PETERS, W. C., 1965. Short Course and Symposium on Computers and Computer

Earth-Sei. Rev., 6 (1970) 121 140

CURRENT TRENDS IN GEOMATHEMATICS 139

Applications in Mining and Exploration. College of Mines, Univ. Arizona, Tucson, 1:

1-345; 2: 1-189; 3: 1-391.
McCAMMON, R. B. (Editor), 1966. Applications of multivariate statistics in geology. J. Geol.,
74(5/2): 653-830.
PARKS, G. A. (Editor), 1964. Computers in the mineral industries. Stanford Univ. Publ., Univ.
Ser., Geol. Sci., 9(1,2): 880 pp.
SECRETARIES OF THE INSTITUTE, 1966. Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Computer Appli-
cations in Ore Valuation. South African Inst. Mining. Met., Johannesburg, 382 pp.
SLINGLUEF, P. L. (Editor), 1966. Proceedings of a symposium and short course on computers and
operations research in mineral industries. Penn. State Univ., Mineral Ind. Expt. Sta.,
Spec. Publ. 2-65, 1: A2-R48; 2: S I - L L l l ; 3 : M M 1 - Z Z I 7 and p.l-17.
SPEAR, S. W., 1964. International symposium: application of statistics, operations research, and
computers in the mineral industry. Colo. School Mines Quart., 59(A,B): 1-997.

Computer contributors

BACA, A., 1967. Prediction of the performance o f l a solution gas drive reservoir. Univ. Kansas,
State Geol. SurE., Computer Contrib., 8:35 pp.
BARTCHER, R. L., 1966. F O R T R A N IV program for estimation of cladistic relationships using the
IBM 7040. Univ. Kansas, State Geol. SurE., Contputer Contrib., 6 : 5 4 pp,
BONHAM-CARTER, G. F., 1967. F O R T R A N IV program for Q-mode cluster analysis of non-
quantitative data using IBM 7090/7094 computers. Univ. Kansas, State Geol. SurE., Com-
puter Contrib., 17:28 pp.
BONHAM-CARTER,G. E. and SUTHERLAND, A. J., 1968. Mathematical model and F O R T R A N 1V
program for computer simulation of deltaic sedimentation. Univ. Kansas', State Geol.
SurE., Computer Contrib., 24:56 pp.
COLE, A. J., JORDAN, C. and MERRIAM, D. F., 1967. F O R T R A N IV program for progessive linear
fit of surfaces on a quadratic base using an IBM 1620 computer. Univ. Kansas, State Geol.
SurE., Computer Contrib., 15:54 pp.
DAVIS, J. C. and SAMPSON, R. J,, 1966. F O R T R A N lI program for multivariate discriminant
analysis using an IBM 1620 computer. Univ. Kansas, State Geol. SurE., Computer Contrib.,
4 : 8 pp.
DAvis, J. C. and SAMPSON, R. J., 1967. F O R T R A N lI time-trend package for the IBM 1620 com-
puter. University Kansas, State Geol. Surv., Computer Contrib., 19:28 pp.
DEMPSEV, J. R., 1966. A generalized two-dimensional regression procedure. Univ. Kansas, State
Geol. SurE., Computer Contrib., 2 : 1 2 pp.
ESLER, J. E. and PRESTON, F. W., 1967. F O R T R A N IV program for the G E 625 to compute the
power spectrum of geological surfaces. Univ. Kansas, State Geol. SurE., Computer Contrib.,
16:23 pp.
ESLER, J. E., SMITH, P. F. and DAVIS, J. C., 1968. K W I K R 8, a F O R T R A N IV program for
multiple regression and geologic trend analysis. Univ. Kansas, State Geol. SurE., Computer
Contrib., 28:31 pp.
Fox, W. T., 1967. F O R T R A N IV program for vector trend analyses of directional data. Univ.
Kansas, State Geol. SurE., Computer Contrib., l l : 36 pp.
GRIFFITHS, J. C. and ONDRIC~, C. W., 1968. Computer applications in the earth sciences: sampling
a geological population. Univ. Kansas, State Geol. SurE., Computer Contrib., 30:53 pp.
HARBAUGH, J. W., 1966. Mathematical simulation of marine sedimentation with IBM 7090/7094
computers. Univ. Kansas, State Geol. SurE., Computer Contrib., 1:52 pp.
HARBAUGH, J. W. and SACK1N,M. J., 1968. F O R T R A N IV program for harmonic trend analysis
using double Fourier series and regularly gridded data for the GE 625 computer. Univ.
Kansas, State Geol. SurE., Computer Contrib., 2 9 : 3 0 pp.
HARBAUGH, J. W. and WAHLSTEDT, W. J., 1967. F O R T R A N IV program for mathematical
simulation of marine sedimentation with IBM 7040 or 7094 computers. Univ. Kansas,
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140 J . c . GRIFFITHS

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(Received January 28, 1969)

Earth-Sci. Rev., 6 (1970) 121-140