GLOBAL SALMON PRODUCTION

Trends in Production and Market Development

By Ragnar Nystoyl, Head of Analysis – Kontali Analyse

Vigo – October 1st 2018

Agenda

• Supply Development
–Farmed Salmonids
–Wild-caught Salmon

• Market Development
– All Salmonids
– Farmed Atlantic Salmon

• Outlook

• Food for thought……

Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries

SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT
Farmed Salmonids – Supply Development
1998 - 2017

Source: Kontali Analyse Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries

Wild-caught Salmonids – Supply Development
1998 - 2017

Source: NPAFC, ADFG, DFO, Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries
VINRO/TINRO,
MAFF, Kontali
 The first take-away
A. Declining supply growth

+ 24 % + 7,7 % + 3,7 %
30 0 0
CAGR CAGR CAGR
250 0
10 0 0 tonnes WFE

20 0 0

150 0

10 0 0

50 0

Source: Kontali Analyse Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries

Farmed Atlantic Salmon
From growth to decline - to growth and to decline again…

Source: Kontali Analyse Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries

A long and lasting trend of Price increase

Source: FHL, Nasdaq, Urner Barry Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries
The second take-away
B. A shift in price-level vs. other proteins

Source: SNM, France – Retail-prices Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries
* Price-basket: Salmon vs. Meat vs.
Other fish
Shortage in supply → Strong profitablity
Estimated Profits* – Major Farmed Salmonid Regions

* Combined – For Norway, Chile, Scotland / Ireland, North America & Faroe
Islands Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries
Source: Kontali Analyse
MARKET DEVELOPMENT
Wild & Farmed Salmonids (Ex. Portion Trout)
Main Markets 2017 – By Species

Source: Various Trade Data, Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries
elaboration Kontali Analyse
Markets; US Export Value – Wild Salmon
Increased dependency on China (Re-processing ++)

Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries

Source: US Census
Markets; Russian Export Value – Wild Salmon
Share to China – Higher than for the US

Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries

Source: Customs Inform

Atlantic Salmon Markets
Increase by 2 % in 2017 - Unevenly distributed by regions

* China + Hong Kong + Vietnam

Source: Kontali Analyse Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries

Atlantic Salmon Markets - YTD 2018
Overall volume growth first 3 Quarters: + 8 %

* China + Hong Kong + Vietnam

Source: Kontali Analyse Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries

SUPPLY OUTLOOK
 Wild Salmon; In-season Estimate

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 E C hg

Chinook 3 100 5 200 5 100 3 200 3 300 2 800 -15 %

Chum 338 300 321900 338 100 280 900 270 500 213 000 -21%
Coho 28 300 35 000 24 900 21000 24 100 24 700 2%
Pink 580 600 307 900 398 900 354 300 452 700 625 000 38 %
Sockeye 133 200 173 700 190 300 183 000 173 600 181000 4%
Total 1 0 83 50 0 843 70 0 957 30 0 842 40 0 924 20 0 1046 500 13 %

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 E C hg

USA 483 300 325 600 433 500 270 500 472 600 315 000 -33 %
Canada 29 900 37 700 17 600 21300 13 800 23 200 68 %
Japan 164 500 144 300 137 600 111200 84 700 95 000 12 %
Russia 405 800 336 100 368 600 439 400 353 100 613 300 74 %
Total 1 0 83 50 0 843 70 0 957 30 0 842 40 0 924 20 0 1046 500 13 %

Source: NPAFC, ADFG, DFO, VINRO, Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries
MAFF, estimats by Kontali Analyse
Large Rainbow Trout– Harvest Estimates per country

Source: Kontali Analyse Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries

Atlantic Salmon – Harvest Estimates per country

Source: Kontali Analyse Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries

 Atlantic Salmon Market Supply
Month by Month – Including projections 2019

25 %

20 %

15 %
Year-over-Year Growth

10 %

5%

0%

-5 %

-10 %

-15 %

-20 %

Mar
Mar
May

Mar

Mar
May

Mar

May

Mar
May

May

May
Jul

Jul

Jul
Jul

Jul

Jul
Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan
Sep

Sep
Sep

Sep

Sep

Sep
Nov

Nov

Nov

Nov

Nov

Nov
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E

Source: Kontali Analyse Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries

Feed sales trends; Q1 – Q3 2018

EUROPE YTD:

-27 000 tonnes

-2%

AMERICAS YTD:

+ 75 000 tonnes
+8%

Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries

Harvest Weights (Round weight)
Norway vs. Chile

Source: Kontali Analyse, Aquabench Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries
Where could future supply growth come from ?
+ 1,7 %

+ 24 % + 7,7 % + 3,7 %
30 0 0
CAGR CAGR CAGR
250 0
10 0 0 tonnes WFE

20 0 0

150 0

10 0 0

50 0

Source: Kontali Analyse Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries

Where could future supply growth come from ?

Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries

Where could future supply growth come from ?

Landbased Salmon Farming Ocean / Offshore Farming

Issuing New Capacity Improved Productivity

Regulatory Change Better Capacity Utilization

Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries

To keep up with demand..

All of the above are likely needed

!

Thank you.