Engineering Structures 32 (2010) 1312–1323

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Engineering Structures
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/engstruct

A methodology for deriving analytical fragility curves for masonry buildings

based on stochastic nonlinear analyses
M. Rota a,b,∗ , A. Penna b , G. Magenes a,b
a
University of Pavia, Department of Structural Mechanics, via Ferrata 1, Pavia, Italy
b
European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering, via Ferrata 1, Pavia, Italy

article info abstract

Article history: A new analytical approach for the derivation of fragility curves for masonry buildings is proposed. The
Received 31 July 2009 methodology is based on nonlinear stochastic analyses of building prototypes. Since such structures
Received in revised form are assumed to be representative of wider typologies, the mechanical properties of the prototypes are
11 December 2009
considered as random variables, assumed to vary within appropriate ranges of values. Monte Carlo
Accepted 13 January 2010
Available online 1 February 2010
simulations are then used to generate input variables from the probability density functions of mechanical
parameters. The model is defined and nonlinear analyses are performed. In particular, nonlinear static
Keywords:
(pushover) analyses are used to define the probability distributions of each damage state whilst nonlinear
Fragility curves dynamic analyses allow to determine the probability density function of the displacement demand
Seismic vulnerability corresponding to different levels of ground motion. Convolution of the complementary cumulative
Masonry buildings distribution of demand and the probability density function of each damage state allows to derive fragility
Nonlinear analysis curves.
Monte Carlo simulation © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction It should be clear hence that earthquake risk reduction should

The evaluation of seismic vulnerability of existing buildings has
become really relevant in the last decades due to the frequent
occurrence of earthquakes, which have demonstrated that the
number of victims and the amount of economic losses depend
significantly on the seismic behaviour of structures.
Masonry structures are a much diffused type of construction
which can be built rapidly, cheaply and often without any plan
or particular technical competence. Indeed, this is one of the most
common housing types built across the world and will continue to
be so in the foreseeable future. Masonry also represents the struc-
tural type of a large architectural heritage that needs to be pre-
served. Moreover, old unreinforced masonry buildings constitute
the large majority of most urban aggregates in several seismic-
prone countries.
The main characteristics of masonry buildings are high rigid-
ity, low tensile and shear strength, low ductility and low capacity
of bearing reverse loading. These are the main reasons for the fre-
quent collapse of masonry buildings during earthquakes, often re-
sponsible for a considerable number of casualties.
∗ Corresponding author at: University of Pavia, Department of Structural
Mechanics, via Ferrata 1, Pavia, Italy. Tel.: +39 0382 516950; fax: +39 0382 529131.
E-mail addresses: maria.rota@unipv.it (M. Rota), andrea.penna@eucentre.it
(A. Penna), guido.magenes@unipv.it (G. Magenes).
0141-0296/$ – see front matter © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.engstruct.2010.01.009
mainly concentrate on masonry structures. Nevertheless, the ef-
forts put into the study and improvement of this type of construc-
tion are very limited since masonry buildings tend to be regarded
as out-of-date, even though they are still diffusely built even in
seismic areas and, in any case, they still make up today a very large
proportion of the world’s existing building stock.
In particular, the knowledge of vulnerability functions for what
concerns masonry buildings is quite limited. Recently, some stud-
ies on large scale vulnerability of masonry buildings [1–4] have
been made, but the available research is still far behind that con-
cerning reinforced concrete buildings. However, the reactions and
mechanisms of failure of rigid unframed buildings to a seismic
event are quite different from those of flexible framed buildings
and hence specific vulnerability studies are required.
Although linear analyses are not adequate for masonry build-
ings (e.g. [5]), the lack of reliable models for calculating the in-
elastic response to input accelerograms of load-bearing masonry
structures has limited, at least in the past, the execution of non-
linear analyses. Most of the few recent studies available in the lit-
erature concerning the derivation of analytical fragility curves for
masonry buildings (e.g. [6–12]) are based on more or less approxi-
mate structural models and/or simplified analysis methods. This is
also due to the inherent complexity and relative unfamiliarity with
nonlinear dynamic analyses, which are more computationally de-
manding than any other procedure.
In this study, a new advanced methodology for obtaining
analytical fragility curves for classes of buildings is proposed.
 M. Rota et al. / Engineering Structures 32 (2010) 1312–1323
This approach allows to take rigorously into account the different
sources of uncertainty involved in the problem, by derivation of the
probability distributions of both capacity and demand through 3D
nonlinear analyses of entire structures.
To illustrate the methodology, nonlinear structural analyses
have been performed on a prototype building representative of
a structural typology that is common in Italy. Fragility curves for
such typology have been derived.
The approach takes advantage of the capabilities of the program
TREMURI, a frame-type macro-element global analysis program
developed at the University of Genoa [13] which is able to per-
form nonlinear pushover and time history analyses on masonry
buildings [14].
Since in most real cases building properties are not well known
and since, on the other hand, it is assumed that the prototype
building is representative of a class of buildings with similar
structural characteristics, mechanical parameters have been
considered as random variables. Hence Monte Carlo simulations
have been carried out based on realistic ranges of the parameters
derived from experimental tests and other sources of information.
First of all, the assumptions adopted for identifying mechan-
ical damage states are presented. Four damage levels have been
considered, two of which are defined from the single pier capac-
ity curve while the other two are identified on the global pushover
curve of the building. The prototype building is hence described
and the assumptions used for defining the model explained. After
that, the results of the different sets of analyses performed are pre-
sented. In particular nonlinear static pushover analyses have been
carried out with the aim of defining the probability distributions
associated to each damage state. On the other hand, time history
analyses were necessary to define the probability density function
(pdf) of the displacement demand imposed on the building by dif-
ferent levels of ground motion, taking into account the significant
variability of natural records. Convolution of the complementary
cumulative distribution of demand and the probability density
functions of each damage state allows to derive fragility points
which will then be fitted by lognormal distributions in order to ob-
tain analytical fragility curves.
2. Mechanical definition of damage states
In order to derive analytical fragility curves it is necessary to
define damage states in terms of a mechanical parameter that can
be directly obtained from the analysis.
Three limit states are usually defined for masonry buildings
(e.g. [15,16]):
• Elastic (cracking) limit, where the wall displacement exceeds
the elastic limit and the first significant crack forms in the wall,
which changes the initial stiffness;
• Maximum resistance, determined by the shear and displace-
ment corresponding to the attainment of the building maxi-
mum resistance;
• Ultimate state, where the building resistance deteriorates be-
low an acceptable limit, e.g. 80% of the maximum resis-
tance [17].
Notice that a real masonry building usually does not collapse
at the so-defined ultimate state. However, although the actual
collapse takes place at a lateral displacement larger than that
corresponding to the ultimate state, at this latter displacement the
structure is already damaged beyond repair [16].
In this work, four mechanical damage states have been
considered. Two of them can be identified from the response of a
single masonry pier while the other two are found from the global
response of the building.
1313
Fig. 1. Identification of the yield, cracking and ultimate drifts on the pushover curve
(envelope of force–displacement curve from cyclic shear testing) of a single pier and
its bilinear approximation.
The first damage state, DS1, is identified by the attainment of
the yield displacement δY of the bilinear approximation to the
capacity curve of a single masonry pier, as indicated in Fig. 1. The
bilinear approximation is obtained by fixing the initial stiffness as
being secant to the point corresponding to 70% of the maximum
resistance and the equivalent resistance so that the area below the
bilinear curve up to the ultimate limit state coincides with the area
below the capacity curve up to the same point [17]. It should be
noticed that δY is always larger than the drift corresponding to 70%
of the shear resistance and hence it is likely that some cracks have
already occurred at such deformation value.
The second damage state, DS2, is identified by the drift corre-
sponding to the first shear cracking of the pier, δS , and is also shown
in Fig. 1. This value can be derived from experimental test results,
whenever available. In this work, values of δS have been obtained
directly from the experimental test report, where they were explic-
itly indicated. Sometimes they are not explicitly reported since the
first cracking is not easy to detect during experimental tests, espe-
cially if the wall surface is not painted or covered by plaster. For
this reason the experimental values associated to δS are typically
larger than those associated to δY .
The damage levels DS3 and DS4 have been derived from global
pushover curves of the building. In particular, DS3 is assumed to
correspond to the attainment of the maximum shear resistance,
while DS4 corresponds to the attainment of 80% of that value.
Notice that a damage level corresponding to complete collapse
of the structure cannot be analytically defined since the total
collapse condition cannot be numerically represented. Moreover
it would occur in correspondence of very high values of drift, at
which the structure or some parts of it loose their vertical load-
bearing capacity.
The considered damage states are represented in Fig. 2, where
they are identified on the global pushover curve of the structure.
3. Stochastic Monte Carlo simulations
The proposed methodology for deriving analytical fragility
curves requires analyses of a population of buildings subjected to
different levels of ground motion. For each building typology, a
prototype is identified and the population of buildings belonging
to that typology is generated through the treatment of selected
structural parameters as random variables. This allows to take into
account both the fact that in most real cases building properties are
not well known and also the variability intrinsic in the definition
of building typologies grouping together buildings with different
characteristics and mechanical properties.
1314 M. Rota et al. / Engineering Structures 32 (2010) 1312–1323
Fig. 2. Identification of the considered damage states on a building pushover curve.
A probability density function (typically gaussian) is then
assigned to each random variable based on realistic ranges of
variation derived from experimental tests and other sources of
information. Values of the parameters are then extracted from
the distributions using appropriate sampling techniques. Finally,
the sampled values are combined to define a series of structures
with different characteristics, all nominally representing the same
building.
Clearly, consideration of all possible uncertainties in the global
and local structural characteristics and ground motion yields an ex-
tremely large number of permutations for the analysis. This is nei-
ther practical nor justified, considering the general nature of the
application of the final vulnerability curves. In the proposed ap-
proach, the geometry of the building is treated deterministically,
meaning by this the plan and elevation configuration of the struc-
ture, the wall size and position and so on. On the other hand, all
the mechanical properties of masonry necessary for the definition
of the building model have been considered as random variables.
This is justified by the assumption that, as stated also in [18] con-
cerning reinforced concrete structures, material variability can be
regarded as the most important source of uncertainty in the deter-
mination of structural response, with all other sources either deriv-
ing directly from its effects or being insignificant in size compared
to it. It is noteworthy that this type of uncertainty is also consid-
ered in the design process, where characteristic values for material
strengths are used and are further reduced using partial safety fac-
tors to ensure structural safety.
The Monte Carlo algorithm, which is a very diffused and well
known method, has been used for sampling the uncertain pa-
rameters from their associated probability density functions (e.g.
[19,20] and references therein). Monte Carlo analyses have been
performed using a software called STAC, developed at the CIMNE
Fig. 3. Prototype building located in Benevento: A picture (left) and the plan of a storey (right).
(International Centre for Numerical Methods in Engineering) of
Barcelona [21]. This software allows to perform stochastic simula-
tions using any type of analysis tool. The user is required to define
appropriate probability distributions of the input variables of inter-
est. The software then calls the structural program which runs the
analysis and returns the statistics of the output variables. A num-
ber of Monte Carlo simulations is performed until convergence of
both the input and output variables to their mean is reached and
the value of standard deviation becomes stable.
Two sets of Monte Carlo analyses have been carried out. In
the first set, values of the mechanical properties have been varied
within the selected ranges and randomly assigned uniformly
over the entire building model. In the second set, an additional
randomness was introduced with the creation of a library of
randomly defined materials which are then randomly assigned to
the different structural elements of the model.
4. Selected building case study
4.1. Building description
The selected building prototype consists in a three-storey
masonry building located in Benevento (southern Italy), in the
neighbourhood called Rione Libertà. This building is typical of
the construction typologies of the entire Rione Libertà. It has
been constructed in 1952 and has plane dimensions of 17.7 ×
14.3 m and a height of 11.05 m. The masonry bearing structure is
entirely realised with tuff units, while floors are made of reinforced
concrete. Reinforced concrete tie beams guarantee the connection
between floors and masonry walls.
A picture of the selected building is reported in the left part of
Fig. 3.
The geometry of the structure has been considered determinis-
tic. The building shows plan regularity and symmetry around the
axis of the stairs. The typical plan of the building (which is practi-
cally identical at all storeys) is reported in the right part of Fig. 3.
For what concerns the material characteristics, since this
building is a prototype considered to be representative of a class
of similar buildings, the characteristics of the materials have been
assumed to be random variables, defined as already discussed in
the previous section.
4.2. Building model and analysis tool
For what concerns modelling and analysis of masonry struc-
tures, either very sophisticated finite element models or extremely
simplified methods are commonly adopted. The analysis tool used
 M. Rota et al. / Engineering Structures 32 (2010) 1312–1323 1315

Table 1
Parameters derived from calibration based on experimental results.
G (MPa) fv o (MPa) µ (–) G c (– ) β (–) δ(%)
T1-1 500 0.105 0.06 8 0.3 0.78
T1-2 500 0.105 0.06 10 0.2 0.72
T1-3 500 0.16 0.05 4 0.3 0.52
T1-4 500 0.15 0.05 6 0.2 0.6
T2-5 700 0.13 0.05 8 0.4 0.56
T2-6 750 0.2 0.08 6 0.3 0.6
Min 500 0.105 0.05 4 0.2 0.52
Max 750 0.2 0.08 10 0.4 0.78

Fig. 4. 3D view of the building model.
in this work is based on the effective macro-element approach
which allows an accurate modelling strategy of masonry buildings
at a reasonable computational burden. This model is implemented
in the program TREMURI. The software and the algorithms embed-
ded in it are described in detail in several literature works (e.g.
[14,22–24]).
The program is based on the nonlinear macro-element model
proposed by Gambarotta and Lagomarsino [25], further modified
by Penna [14], representative of a whole masonry panel (pier or
spandrel beam). The software allows to perform nonlinear seismic
analyses of unreinforced masonry buildings using a set of analysis
procedures: incremental static analysis (Newton–Raphson) both
with force or displacement control, 3 pushover analysis and 3D
time history dynamic analysis using the Newmark integration
method and Rayleigh viscous damping.
A view of the 3D model of the building is shown in Fig. 4.
3D modelling of the building is based on the identification
within the construction of the seismically resistant structure,
constituted by walls and floors. The walls are the bearing elements,
while the floors, apart from sharing vertical loads to the walls,
are considered as planar stiffening elements (flexible diaphragm
modelled by orthotropic 3–4 nodes membrane elements) on which
the horizontal action distribution between the walls depends.
The model is based on the hypothesis that the seismic response
of the building is governed by a global box-type behaviour, assum-
ing that local mechanisms (mainly out-of-plane) are prevented by
appropriate structural details and/or connecting devices (e.g. tie
rods or tie beams). With this assumption, the local flexural be-
haviour of the floors and the local wall out-of-plane response are
not computed because they are considered negligible with respect
to the global building response, which is governed by their in-
plane behaviour. This is acceptable for this type of building, where
stiff diaphragms and low height/thickness ratios for the walls ren-
der out-of-plane response a secondary phenomenon. Notice that a
global seismic response is possible only if vertical and horizontal
elements are properly connected.
A frame-type representation of the in-plane behaviour of
masonry walls is adopted: each wall of the building is subdivided
into piers and lintels (2-nodes macro-elements) connected by rigid
areas (panel nodes).
4.3. Identification of mechanical parameters’ ranges
The first step for implementing a Monte Carlo simulation is
identifying realistic ranges of variation for the various parameters
needed for the numerical model.
The building under study is made of tuff masonry. For this type
of material, several experimental tests have been carried out and
the results are available in the literature. Among others, the tests
carried out by Faella et al. [26] have been selected. They consist in
in-plane cyclic shear-compression tests carried out on specimens
made of cement mortar and tuff units obtained from demolished
buildings erected in Naples in the last 2 centuries.
Tests have been performed on three types of masonry piers, all
with 1250 × 1300 × 500 mm (h × l × t) dimensions, differing for
the applied axial load and the constructive details:
• The first type (T1) is a double-wythe wall made of roughly
dressed tuff blocks, without through stones connecting the
external wythes and with incoherent filling material in
between.
• The second type (T2) consists of a monolithic wall made of tuff
units similar to those of type one.
• The third type (T3) consists of panels of the first type, injected
with cement mixture and will not be considered in this work.
The tests, carried out at the ISMES laboratory of Bergamo,
have been performed in displacement control by imposing a cyclic
horizontal displacement at the top of the wall and measuring the
horizontal force. The vertical axial force was either equal to 130
kN (σ = 0.2 MPa) or 325 kN (σ = 0.5 MPa), while the imposed
displacement has been incremented by 0.5 mm every three cycles.
Each test has been stopped when the wall has shown evidence of
critical damage.
All the tests carried out on the first two types of walls have
been simulated with the program TREMURI in order to identify
meaningful ranges of variation for the different model parameters.
With the aim of obtaining the desired parameter ranges, different
cyclic pushover analyses were carried out, playing with the model
parameters until a good fit of the experimental tests’ results was
obtained. A plot of the cyclic force–displacement curves obtained
form the experimental tests with the nonlinear model results
superimposed is shown in Figs. 5 and 6 for the different tested
specimens.
Based on the comparison with experimental results, it has
been possible to calibrate only the parameters related to shear
failure modes, since all experimental specimens failed in shear.
In particular, the following parameters have been obtained: shear
modulus G, initial shear resistance for zero compression (cohesion)
fv o , friction coefficient µ, nonlinear shear deformability ratio Gc ,
softening parameter β , ultimate shear drift δv . The results of the
nonlinear identification are summarised in Table 1.
The missing parameters, which cannot be directly obtained
from cyclic tests, have been derived from the indications reported
in Annex 11.D of the OPCM 3274 [17]. For tuff masonry with good
quality mortar and lack of through stones the following ranges of
values for the different parameters are suggested:
• Compressive strength of masonry: 1.2 < fm < 1.8 MPa
• Young modulus in compression: 1350 < E < 1890 MPa
• Specific weight: w = 16 kN/m3 .
In case of transversal connections, the compressive strength
range can be corrected in:
1316 M. Rota et al. / Engineering Structures 32 (2010) 1312–1323

Fig. 6. Comparison of experimental test results (grey thin curve) and numerical
Fig. 5. Comparison of experimental test results (grey thin curve) and numerical
simulations (black thick curve) for the different tested specimens: T1–4, T2–5, T2–6
simulations (black thick curve) for the different tested specimens: T1–1, T1–2, T1–3
from top to bottom.
from top to bottom.

Table 2 In order to define the damage states, a probability distribution

Parameters’ ranges adopted. of values of the drift corresponding to first cracking is also required.
E (MPa) G (MPa) fm (MPa) fv o (MPa) µ (–) Gc (–) β (–) δv (%) δf (%) The interpretation of the experimental tests provides two sets of
drift values: the first (δs ) is obtained directly from the tests and is
Min 1350 500 1.2 0.105 0.05 4 0.2 0.52 –
defined as corresponding to the first evidence of shear cracking;
Max 1890 750 2.7 0.2 0.08 10 0.4 0.78 –
the second (δy ) is derived from the bilinear approximation of the
envelope capacity curve and represents the drift associated to the
• Compressive strength of masonry: 1.8 < fm < 2.7 MPa. elastic limit of the equivalent bilinear curve. The values of these
In addition, for what concerns the ultimate flexural drift δf , two parameters for the different tests are reported in Table 4,
a value of 0.8% has been adopted as the mean value (as also while the parameters of the probability distribution adopted in the
suggested in [27]), with an assumed coefficient of variation of 10%. damage state definition are summarised in Table 5.
In conclusion, the ranges reported in Table 2 have been adopted.
In the numerical model, normal distributions have been 5. Results of pushover analyses
assumed for all the mechanical parameters, with a mean value
corresponding to the central value of the interval and a standard A significant number of pushover analyses has been performed
deviation such that 95% of the data lie within the interval. The on the selected building. The analyses have been carried out only
parameters of the normal distribution of each mechanical quantity in the x direction, since the building appears to be more vulnerable
needed for the numerical analysis are summarised in Table 3. in x than in y and the first vibration mode is along the x direction.
 M. Rota et al. / Engineering Structures 32 (2010) 1312–1323 1317

Table 3
Parameters used in the stochastic analyses.
E (MPa) G (MPa) fm (MPa) fv o (MPa) µ (–) Gc (–) β (– ) δv (%) δf (%)
Mean 1620 625 1.95 0.1525 0.065 7 0.3 0.65 0.8
Std. dev. 135 62.5 0.375 0.02375 0.0075 1.5 0.05 0.065 0.08

Table 4
First cracking parameters derived from experimental tests.
δs (%) δy (%)
T1-1 1.72 0.65
T1-2 1.99 1
T1-3 1.62 1.07
T1-4 1.60 1.16
T2-5 2.05 0.68
T2-6 1.69 0.85
Min 1.60 0.65
Max 2.05 1.16

Table 5
Parameters used in the stochastic analyses.
δs (%) δy (%)
Mean 1.825 0.905
Std. dev. 0.1125 0.1275

Fig. 7. Results of the second set of stochastic pushover analyses, with identification
The force distribution proportional to the first vibration mode has
of the mean and mean plus or minus one standard deviation curves.
been selected. If a uniform force distribution is applied, it is very
likely that damage would be concentrated at the first storey of
the building. The assumption of a modal distribution, i.e. inverse
triangular forces, should be more coherent with the results of time
history analyses. Another assumption embedded in the performed
analyses consists in neglecting damage in the spandrel beams for
the individuation of the limit states of interest. The reason is that
the model has been calibrated on experimental tests on masonry
piers, while results concerning spandrel beams were not available
(as it is usually the case). It should be noticed that in any case
this procedure has a methodological purpose: in order to obtain
more definitive results all the assumptions should be better tested
and the other options of force distribution and direction of analysis
should be explored.
In some cases, results of pushover analyses may be strongly
affected by the choice of the control node; however, this is not an
issue for this building, since floors are rigid and hence any node at
the top storey can be assumed as the control one [28]. Fig. 8. Identification of global damage states based on the second set of pushover
Two different sets of stochastic pushover analyses have been analyses.

carried out, each one consisting of 1000 analyses. In the first set
the geometry was assigned, the materials were assigned to each
macro-element, but the mechanical properties were considered as
random variables varying within the ranges defined at the previous
section. In the second set, not only are the mechanical parameters
random variables, but also the material associated to each macro-
element is randomly selected from a predefined library of mate-
rials. In particular, 30 different materials have been defined for
the 165 structural elements of the model. Each material is charac-
terised by values of the mechanical parameters randomly selected
from the intervals. In each analysis, materials are redefined. The
number of analyses performed for each of the two sets (1000) was
considered sufficient, since convergence of each input and output
variable to the corresponding mean value and stabilisation of the
standard deviations were observed.
The comparison of the pushover curves obtained for the two
sets of stochastic analyses shows that the mean curve is not so
different in the two cases. However, the dispersion in the base
shear is more reduced in the second case, up to the failure range of
the curves; after this point the dispersion is larger than in the first
case. Moreover, the dispersion associated to the maximum force
limit state is significantly reduced in the second set of analyses.
However, the dispersion associated to the ultimate limit state (80%
of the maximum shear) is slightly increased.
Fig. 7 shows the pushover curves obtained from the second set
of analyses, just to give an idea of the variability observed in the
results. Also the mean pushover curve and the mean plus or minus
one standard deviation are shown in the same figure.
From each pushover curve it is possible to identify two global
limit states, one corresponding to the attainment of the maximum
base shear resistance, the other corresponding to the ultimate con-
dition, identified by a value of base shear deterioration correspond-
ing to 20% of the maximum base shear. Since a set of 1000 analyses
is available, it is possible to define a distribution of values for these
two limit states. Both the mean value and the mean plus or mi-
nus one standard deviation values obtained form the analyses are
identified in Fig. 8 by vertical lines.
In order to derive a probability density function associated to
damage state DS2, it has been necessary to define a relationship
(obviously in probabilistic terms) between the global displacement
of the structure and the corresponding maximum drift observed in
the elements. The results for the performed analyses are reported
in Fig. 9, in which also the mean and the mean plus or minus one
1318 M. Rota et al. / Engineering Structures 32 (2010) 1312–1323
Fig. 9. Relationship between global structural displacement and maximum
element drift. The thick continuous line represents the mean curve while the thick
dashed lines represent the mean plus or minus one standard deviation curves.
standard deviation curves are highlighted. It can be noticed that
the results are not much scattered from the mean curve and that
the curve dispersion is not symmetrical around the mean curve.
At this point, for each value of global displacement, the prob-
ability density function of the maximum value of drift in the ele-
ments is known. What is needed is the probability that this value of
drift exceeds the drift threshold associated to the considered dam-
age states. As indicated in a previous section, the drift threshold
of each damage level is also defined in terms of a probability den-
sity function. In order to obtain the final probability distribution
relating DS1 and DS2 to the global structural displacement, it is
necessary to perform the convolution of the two corresponding
probability distributions. Fig. 10 qualitatively describes the proce-
dure followed for such convolution: for each global displacement
value, the drift demand on the elements is evaluated and repre-
sented by a probability density function of values (right part of
Fig. 10). The complementary cumulative distribution function of
such values (dashed line in the left part of the figure) is then con-
volved with the probability density function of the two limit state
thresholds (two bell curves in the left part of the figure). The result
of the convolution for each DS is represented by the shaded areas in
Fig. 10. Scheme of the procedure used for the identification of drift-dependent limit state probabilities.
the figure. Such areas correspond to the integral of the joint prob-
ability distributions.
The probability density functions associated to each of the four
considered damage states have hence been determined. They are
summarised in Fig. 11.
6. Incremental dynamic analyses
6.1. Selection of accelerograms
In order to carry out incremental dynamic analyses, an appro-
priate set of acceleration time histories is required. As well known,
accelerograms may be selected from data banks of real accelero-
grams or alternatively they can be generated synthetically. The ad-
vantage of real records over artificial or synthetic accelerograms is
that genuine records of ground motion shaking are more realistic
since they carry all the ground motion characteristics (amplitude,
frequency, energy content, duration, number of cycles and phase)
and reflect all the factors that influence accelerograms (source,
path and site).
In this study, the accelerograms adopted for the dynamic
analyses have been selected from online strong motion record
databases (www.isesd.cv.ic.ac.uk/, peer.berkeley.edu/smcat/, db.
cosmos-eq.org), with the constraint of the spectrum-compatibility
with a target response spectrum.
A single-record time history analysis cannot fully capture the
behaviour of a building, since results may be strongly dependent
on the record chosen (e.g. [29]). So, a minimum of 7 accelerograms
must be applied to the structure to be allowed to use average
results instead of the most unfavourable ones, as suggested by
several modern seismic codes [17,30,31] and by research works
(e.g. [32]).
The 7 real spectrum-compatible accelerograms used for time
history analyses are plotted in Fig. 12. They have been selected
through an algorithm based on a Monte Carlo random selection
of groups of accelerograms: the program automatically combines
the records downloaded from the strong motion databases and
identifies the set best reproducing the target response spectrum.
The approach followed is described in detail in [33].
Finally, the selected accelerograms have to be scaled to the
target PGA in order to have a good fitting of the mean response
 M. Rota et al. / Engineering Structures 32 (2010) 1312–1323
Fig. 11. Probability density functions of the different considered damage states.
spectrum with respect to the target spectrum. There is widespread
concern in the engineering community regarding the practice of
scaling records. For a detailed discussion on the methods adopted
in the literature for scaling accelerograms and their limitations, the
reader is referred for example to [34].
In this work, records have been scaled linearly in order to match
their PGA with the target PGA of the selected response spectrum.
Notice that the scale factors applied to the accelerograms were all
very close to one, within 0.6 and 1.1. Since the concern usually has
something to do with ‘‘weaker’’ records not being representative of
‘‘stronger’’ ones [29] and since the maximum PGA value considered
is 0.3 g (not much larger than the spectrum PGA of 0.25 g), it is
believed that the considered case is not one of the most critical
ones. A more detailed study of this issue will be definitely a
further development of the proposed methodology, for example
by selecting a different set of ground motion records for each PGA
level, without scaling them.
Fig. 13 shows the comparison of the average response spectrum
of the selected accelerograms and the target code spectrum. The
code spectrum is the one of the EC8 (type 1) for a PGA of 0.25 g.
Fig. 12. Spectrum-compatible real accelerograms used for time history analyses.
1319
6.2. Results of the incremental dynamic analyses
Each time history analysis with a given record provides a value
of the selected demand parameter. If the analysis is repeated using
a different record, another value of this parameter is obtained.
As the number of analyses increases, it is possible to define a
probability distribution of values of this demand measure. If this
process is repeated for a range of ground motion values, for
example obtained by scaling each record to different values of PGA,
it is possible to obtain a structural response function indicating
the probable distribution of the engineering demand parameter for
different levels of ground motion. This is the so-called incremental
dynamic analysis [29].
A set of incremental time history analyses has been performed
by applying to the structural model the accelerograms defined in
the previous section. A value of Rayleigh critical viscous damping
equal to 2% has been assumed for all the analyses, since most of the
energy dissipation was provided by the hysteretic response.
The aim of this study is to derive fragility curves for a typology
of structures, identified by the selected building prototype, for
which the ground motion and material properties are prone to
variability. In order to take into account both the variability
due to different ground motions (7 selected accelerograms) and
the variability of mechanical parameters, a very large number
of analyses would be required, wherein, for each time history,
a number of material properties is extracted from properly
defined probability density functions by stochastic Monte Carlo
simulations. Since each nonlinear time history analysis requires
a significant computational time, it is necessary to reduce the
number of analyses by making some assumptions.
A first set of time history analyses has been carried out using
the mean value of each mechanical parameter, as reported in
Table 3, and applying all the 7 accelerograms scaled so that the
mean PGA matches 0.05, 0.1, 0.15, 0.2, 0.25 and 0.3 g. These
analyses will be referred in the following as the deterministic
set. This set corresponds to the assumption that the dispersion
1320 M. Rota et al. / Engineering Structures 32 (2010) 1312–1323

Fig. 14. Comparison of standard deviation values obtained with mean mechanical
parameters and 7 accelerograms, with stochastic parameters and only 1 accelero-
gram and combining the two cases.

Fig. 13. Comparison of the mean response spectrum of the selected records and
the code spectrum.

in displacement demand due to the variability of mechanical

parameters is negligible with respect to the dispersion introduced
by the use of different ground motions.
A second set of analyses has been carried out taking into
account the variability due to material parameters and neglecting
the variability induced by the different ground motion records. In
Fig. 15. Complementary cumulative distribution functions of the displacement
this case, 100 realisations of each material parameter have been
demand at various PGA levels.
generated through Monte Carlo simulations and a corresponding
number of analyses has been carried out for the values of PGA =
0.1, 0.2 and 0.3 g and applying only the first accelerogram.
In order to check the assumption that the variability related
to ground motion has a stronger influence on the displacement
demand than the one due to mechanical parameters, for each con-
sidered PGA level the total standard deviation associated to dis-
placement demand has been calculated as the square root of the
sum of the squares of the two standard deviations associated re-
spectively to ground motion and mechanical parameter variability.
A similar approach has been followed in several works for combin-
ing the uncertainty associated to capacity and demand in order to
obtain the total damage state variability (e.g. [2,35]), since the lat-
ter was not directly available from the analyses as it is instead the
Fig. 16. Identification of maximum displacement demand (mean and mean plus or
case in this work. The results are summarised in Fig. 14, where the minus one standard deviation) for a PGA of 0.1 g.
total standard deviation obtained is compared to the standard de-
viations corresponding to the deterministic case (mean mechan- source of uncertainty in the probabilistic assessment of structures
ical parameters and 7 accelerograms) and the probabilistic case (e.g. [36] and references therein).
(stochastic mechanical parameters and a single accelerogram). At this point, the probability density functions of displacement
Observation of the plot shows that, as expected, the standard de- demand at different values of PGA are needed, since they will
viation of the displacement demand increases with the severity of be convolved with the distributions of each damage state in
ground motion due to the increase of nonlinear behaviour, which order to derive fragility curves. In particular, the complementary
modifies the structural response of the building. Moreover, the fig- cumulative distributions reported in Fig. 15 will be used for
ure demonstrates that, for this prototype and with the selected such purpose. Such complementary cumulative distributions of
ground motions, the variability due to mechanical properties is maximum displacement demand have been obtained from time
significantly smaller than the variability associated to different history analyses with the 7 accelerograms at each value of PGA.
ground motions, although the number of analyses in the former From the results of such analyses, the parameters of the corre-
case (100 realisations of each material parameter for each PGA) sponding lognormal distributions have been obtained. As an exam-
is significantly larger than in the latter (7 accelerograms for each ple, Fig. 16 shows the hysteretic cycles obtained from all the time
PGA). Hence, it seems acceptable to neglect the variability associ- history analyses with the 7 accelerograms scaled to a PGA of 0.1 g:
ated to different values of material parameters and work with the the mean and mean plus or minus one standard deviation value of
deterministic hypothesis. The results reported from now on will the maximum displacement demand obtained from the different
refer to this case. However, it has to be noticed that this assump- analyses are indicated by vertical lines.
tion has been tested only with reference to the first accelerogram.
Further analyses, with different ground motion records, would be 7. Derivation of fragility curves
needed to confirm the results obtained. This assumption is actu-
ally confirmed by the results of many researchers who identified Once the probability density functions of the different consid-
the randomness in earthquake excitation as the most significant ered damage states have been defined from pushover analyses and
 M. Rota et al. / Engineering Structures 32 (2010) 1312–1323 1321

Fig. 17. Derivation of the fragility points for a PGA = 0.25 g, from convolution of pdf of limit states and complementary CDF of demand.

the displacement demand imposed on the building by different Table 6

Parameters of the lognormal distributions fitting the analytical fragility points.
levels of ground motion has been evaluated from time history anal-
yses, it is possible to convolve these two results to obtain fragility DS µ σ
curves. DS1 −2.026 0.362
As reported for example by [20], the probability of failure DS2 −1.645 0.273
associated to a predefined limit state can be defined as: DS3 −1.351 0.218
DS4 −1.169 0.175
Z ∞
Pf (PGA) = 1 − FD|PGA (α) fC (α)dα
 
(1)
0 the probability of exceeding each damage state. The fragility points
so obtained have been fitted using a lognormal probability density
where FD|PGA is the cumulative density function (cdf) of the demand
function, which is very often adopted to describe fragility curves.
for a given level of PGA and fc is the probability density function
Obviously other types of probability distributions could be used
(pdf) of the capacity, i.e. of the damage state under consideration.
to fit the fragility points, possibly leading to even better approx-
The procedure is graphically illustrated in Fig. 17. The top part imations. Also, additional points corresponding to intermediate
of the figure shows the complementary cumulative distribution values of PGA could be added although the five considered levels
function of the demand (dash-dotted line) for a PGA of 0.25 g appear to be sufficiently well fitted by the lognormal probability
and the probability density functions of the various damage states distribution.
(continuous bell curves). These curves are convolved and the The points obtained and the lognormal curves fitting them are
obtained curves are shown, for each damage state, with a dashed plotted in Fig. 18, while the parameters (µ and σ ) of the lognormal
bell curve under the corresponding continuous bell curve. The curves are summarised in Table 6.
integral of the area below the curve representing the result of
the convolution gives a value of probability, i.e. the probability of 8. Comments and conclusions
exceedance of that damage state for a PGA of 0.25 g. These values
are then reported as points in the lower part of the figure and A methodology is presented for obtaining analytical fragility
represent the fragility points corresponding to this PGA level. The curves for classes of masonry buildings from detailed 3D nonlinear
procedure described above is then repeated for all the considered dynamic analyses of entire structures. This work was motivated
PGA values. The integral of the areas below the curves obtained by the scarcity of research specifically addressed to the derivation
from the convolution of capacity and demand for the different PGA of analytical fragility curves for masonry buildings using detailed
levels provide the fragility points representing, for each PGA level, models and rigorous analysis techniques. The existing literature
1322 M. Rota et al. / Engineering Structures 32 (2010) 1312–1323
Fig. 18. Lognormal fragility curves fitting the analytically derived points.
approaches are indeed often based on simplified models of the
buildings and approximate analysis types (linear or nonlinear
static analyses).
The proposed approach is based on the results of nonlinear
stochastic analyses of a prototype building, considered to be rep-
resentative of a building typology. All the mechanical properties
of the structure are assumed to be random variables, to which
normal probability distributions are associated based on realistic
ranges of variation. Even the association of mechanical parameters
to each structural element is treated as a random variable. Monte
Carlo simulations are then used to extract the input parameters
from such distributions and then advanced nonlinear analyses of
the whole structure are performed.
The probability density functions of selected damage thresholds
are determined based on pushover analyses and then convolved
with the probability distribution of displacement demand obtained
from nonlinear time history analyses. Lognormal fragility curves
are hence obtained by fitting the fragility points representing the
probability of exceeding different damage levels for discrete levels
of PGA.
The main advantages of this approach consist in:
• The definition of the probability distributions of global displace-
ment limit states through nonlinear static analyses on stochas-
tically defined structural models;
• The identification of the variability of material characteristics
based on the analytical simulation of the results of cyclic exper-
imental tests;
• The nonlinear dynamic capability of the structural software,
which allows to carry out accurate analyses of the whole struc-
ture with a reasonable computational effort;
• The definition of the probability distribution of displacement
demand through the use of a set of real spectrum-compatible
accelerograms for performing time history analyses, which al-
low to include all the ground motion characteristics (ampli-
tude, frequency, energy content, duration, number of cycles
and phase) and reflect all the factors influencing accelerograms
(source, path and site).
Due to the definition of the damage state DS1, the obtained
fragility curves predict a null damage for values of PGA smaller
than 0.05 g. This is not always realistic, since in many cases damage
has been observed for lower values of ground motion. One of
the reasons of this lower estimated vulnerability is related to the
definition of the damage state DS1 based on visual interpretation
of experimental tests, in which typically the external surface of
the tested specimens is not painted nor plastered and hence low
levels of damage are not easy to detect. On the other hand, in
existing masonry buildings, some level of damage can usually be
noticed even prior to the occurrence of an earthquake, due to poor
maintenance conditions [1].
Dynamic time history analyses are all performed with a value of
2% equivalent viscous damping. This assumption should be verified
more in detail: analytical models, indeed, often tend to underesti-
mate the effective dissipation capacity of the structure due to the
shape and type of the implemented hysteretic model, particularly
when damage propagates into the structure. The assumption of 2%
equivalent viscous damping, if appropriate for low values of PGA,
may be too low for higher intensities of ground motion, where the
behaviour of the building becomes highly nonlinear and the hys-
teretic model may no longer be able to adequately reproduce the
dissipation capacity of the building. The consequence of this may
be an overestimation of the related vulnerability. Although this ef-
fect is normally on the conservative side if analyses are used for
the aim of assessing or designing a structure, in this case the over-
estimation of vulnerability may determine an incorrect evaluation
of seismic risk. To compensate for this numerical effect, a higher
value of equivalent viscous damping may be appropriate.
Moreover the local flexural out-of-plane behaviour of walls is
not modelled, since a global box-type behaviour of the building is
assumed. In this case the wall out-of-plane flexural contribution
to global stiffness and resistance is generally negligible with re-
spect to the in-plane one. This assumption represents a good ap-
proximation for low levels of in-plane damage, but for severely
damaged structures in which the wall in-plane capacity is strongly
deteriorated, it may induce a non-negligible underestimation of
the seismic building performance. The proposed approach can be
considered appropriate for structural typologies with good con-
nections between orthogonal walls and between walls and floors
and with rigid diaphragms (such as the prototype building con-
sidered in this study) whose behaviour is dominated by a global
response governed by in-plane mechanisms. In case of buildings
with inappropriate connections and lack of any specific device pre-
venting local collapses (e.g. tie rods, tie beams, etc.), consideration
of such local failure modes (mainly associated to out-of-plane re-
sponse) needs to be incorporated in the assessment procedure.
It is important to note that time history analyses have been
performed using accelerograms compatible with the response
spectrum for rock soil and hence they refer to a predefined spectral
shape (EC8, type 1) and they do not represent all the possible
stratigraphic and topographic conditions occurring in real cases.
A possible improvement of the proposed incremental time history
analysis would consider the selection of a wider database of natural
records able to cover a significant ground motion severity range
without any need for scaling. Also different soil conditions would
be taken into account.
The quantitative results obtained in this study are only appli-
cable to structures belonging to the same typology as the pro-
totype building. However, the proposed procedure has a general
validity and can be easily extended to other types of buildings,
with the limitations previously discussed concerning out-of-plane
behaviour. Clearly the presented approach is still at a method-
ological stage and needs to be further tested and improved by
applying it to different building prototypes representative of the
same typology and also to structures belonging to different types.
Moreover, for each building prototype, several geometrical con-
figurations could be taken into consideration by treating the vari-
ability of some geometrical characteristics by means of additional
stochastic variables.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank Prof. Alex Barbat of the CIMNE
(Centro Internacional de Métodos Numéricos en la Ingeniería),
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona (Spain), for kindly
 M. Rota et al. / Engineering Structures 32 (2010) 1312–1323
providing the program STAC used to perform Monte Carlo
simulations.
The financial support of the Reluis Project (Line 10) ‘‘Definition
and development of databases for risk evaluation and emergency
management and planning’’ is also acknowledged.
Finally, the manuscript has benefited from the thorough re-
views of two anonymous reviewers.
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