Hazardcourse Pisac 2012

Natural Hazards in Mountain Regions,
‘Diplomado Internacional en Glaciología, Cambio

Climático y Reducción del Riesgo del Desastres en Alta
Montaña’
Pisac, Oct. 15, 2012
Supervision:
Christian Huggel (University of Zurich), Claudia Giráldez (University of Zurich)
christian.huggel@geo.uzh.ch
claudia.giraldez@geo.uzh.ch
1. Program
Monday, Oct: 15, 2012

08:00 Departure from Cusco Hotel Qorianka Jr. Manuel Segura 232 Lince
09:00 Arrival in Pisac
09:00 – 10:00 Introduction field course, Quebrada Pisac& explanations of process and
methodology for hazard mapping
10:00 – 15:00 Hazard mapping in groups: debris flows (lunch individually)
15:00 Return to Cusco
16:00 Arrival in Cusco
16:15-18:30 Presentations and Discussion of the hazard mapping results
18:30 Conclusions
2. Material
Please bring with you (everybody):
 Pocket calculator
 Shoes & clothes for the field (but we are mostly on paved or gravel roads)
 Protection against sun & rain (an umbrella can also be useful while writing in the field during showers)
Facultative if available:
 Digital camera (with possibility to transfer images to laptop)
 Clipboard (for writing while standing…)
Natural Hazards in Mountain Regions, Pisac, ‘Diplomado Internacional en Glaciología, Cambio Climático y Reducción del
Riesgo del Desastres en Alta Montaña‘, Oct. 15, 2012 2
3. Groups
Group 1: Alejo Cochachín Group 2: Daniel Colonia

Randy Muñoz Ana Mª Ling
Jorge Cuenca Gamaniel Mosqueira
Group 3: Luzmila Dávila Group 4: Jesús Gómez

Martín Salvador Ricardo Ray Villanueva
Nirvana Camargo Sandro Justo Arias
Group 5: Edwin Loarte Group 6: Arnaldo Tacsi

Toribio Reyes Iván Cáceres
Henrry Silva Gysela Ladera
Group 7: Helder Mallqui

Alexzander Santiago Martel
Hernán Loyola
Judith Torres
4. Objectives
After the course, the participants should be able to…
 … understand and correctly apply the terminologies related to hazards.

 … perform a simple hazard assessment and hazard mapping of debris flows and floods in mountain
areas.
5. Risk analysis approach

Risk (R) is the product of Hazard (H) with Damage (D) (q.v.van Westen, 2006, p168). Hazard is defined as the
probability of an event with a given intensity. Damage consists of objects/persons possibly exposed to a
hazardous event. Therefore risk only persists, if damage is expected to be caused by a hazardous event.
=> R  HD
A risk analysis is carried out as following:
Process Product Serving as a basis for...

1. Conducting of Hazard Intensity maps  further planning of technical or
analysis engineering clarifications/
plannings/measurements
 hazard maps
2. Consolidation of Intensity (Synoptic) Hazard  consideration of natural hazards in all
maps into scenario-related maps spatially relevant activities and tasks: in
hazard maps and then into particular for “Richtplanung” and
the final hazard map “Nutzungsplanung”
 the risk calculation
3. Estimation of damage Damage potential  The risk calculation
potential and vulnerability maps
4. Risk calculation Risk or risk maps  Risk management of natural hazards
NOTE: In Module 5 (Pisac field work) we will only take into account points 1 and 2 (HAZARDS). Points 3 and 4
related to damage potential, vulnerability and risk will be treated in module 6.
6. Hazards 1: Debris flow scenarios
Small event (~30 year return period)
 Rainfall intensity: 10mm/h, 5h long

 Runoff coefficient: ~0.2
1) Estimate the area of the catchment
2) Calculate the total runoff using rainfall intensity and runoff coefficient
3) Estimate the proportion of the total runoff that contributes to the debris flow
4) Estimate the sediment volume (solid material) of the catchment and torrent: erosion and entrainment
(first approximation: 50% water, 50% sediment)
5) Estimate different debris flow surges
6) Compare with runoff / channel capacity
7) Map the inundated area with high (> 1 m inundation height), and medium (< 1 m inundation height)
intensity
Medium (~100 year return period) and large event (~300 year return period):
 Rainfall intensity: 12 mm/h, 5 h long (100 years); 14 mm/h, 5 h long (300 years)
 Runoff coefficient: ~0.2.
Proceed analogously as for small event
 Transform the intensity maps of the three scenarios into the three corresponding scenario-related hazard
maps (red/orange/yellow colors) according to the hazard map matrix
Consolidate the three scenario-related hazard maps to the final debris flow hazard map by using the
highest hazard level for each point
Intensity and hazard matrix for debris flows:
Small debris flow scenarios (~30 year return period):
Catchment Rainfall Total runoff Runoff Sediment Debris flow
2 3 3 3
area [km ] volume [m ] volume [m ] contribution fraction [%] volume [m ]*
to debris
3
flow [m ]
Quebrada
Pisac
*The debris flow volume can be further partitioned into the volume of possible different debris flow surges.
Medium debris flow scenarios (~100 year return period):

2 3 3 3
to debris
3
flow [m ]
Quebrada
Pisac
Large debris flow scenarios (~300 year return period):

2 3 3 3
to debris
3
flow [m ]
Quebrada
Pisac
7. Hazards 2: Flood scenarios
The Swiss Federal Office for Environment (FOEN / BAFU, formerly Swiss Federal Office for Water and Geology)
recommends a number of formulas to calculate peak runoff. The formulas are listed in the appendix, but here
we apply primarily the approach by GIUB’96:
GIUB’96
HQ100  a HQ100  Fn b and Qmax  aQ max  Fn b
HQ100 100-year return period peak runoff [m3/s]

Qmax maximum runoff [m3/s]
a region specific parameter [-]  see appendix
b region specific parameter [-]  see appendix
Fn catchment size [km2]: 7000 km²
Medium event (~100 year return period)
1) Area of the catchment of Río Vilcanota in Pisac: 7000km²

2) Calculation of HQ100 and Qmax according to formulas
3) Estimate runoff capacity of stream
4) Map inundated (flooded) area with high, medium and low intensity
Small (~30 year return period) and large event (~300 year return period):
1) Individual estimate for the 30 year event based on the 100 year event and the observed current runoff
(river cross section/wetter area multiplied with flow velocity)
2) Individual estimate for the 300 year event based on the GIUB’96-formula for Qmax
3) Map flooded areas for both events with high, medium and low intensity
 Transform the intensity maps of the three scenarios into the three corresponding scenario-related hazard
maps (red/orange/yellow colors) according to the hazard map matrix
Consolidate the three scenario-related hazard maps to the final flood hazard map by using the highest
hazard level for each point
Intensity and hazard matrices for floods:
Small flood scenario (~30 year return period):
2 3 3
Catchment [km ] HQ30 [m /s] Runoff capacity Overflow [m /s]*
3
[m /s]*
Pisac 7000
*Runoff capacity and overflow should be assessed at different sites of the river channel.
Medium flood scenario (~100 year return period):

2 3 3
3
[m /s]*
Pisac 7000
Large flood scenario (~300 year return period):

2 3 3
3
[m /s]*
Pisac 7000
10. Final presentation
The final presentation should take 10-15 minutes and all the treated aspects need to be involved, such as:
1. Debris flow hazards (values / map)

2. Flood hazards (values / map)
3. Possible measures with a limited budget (priority list)
4. Discussion / further information
10. Appendix
The following equations and figures are from reports from the former Swiss “Bundesamt für Wasser und
1
Geologie”, today called “Bundesamt für Umwelt” BAFU (BWG, 2003) .
Values:
Qmax highest observed flood peak (EHQ = extreme flood ≈ Qmax)
HQ100 peak discharge of a flood with a 100-year return period
HQx peak discharge of a flood with an x-year return period (with x to be selected)
a) Kürsteiner (1917) / Heusser (1947)
Qmax  c  F 2 / 3
3
Qmax peak discharge [m /s]
c coefficient to characterize the catchment [-]
2
F size of the catchment [km ]
b) Müller-Zeller (1943)
Qmax     F 2 / 3
3
α coefficient of the zone [-]
ψ discharge coefficient [-]
2
F size of the catchment [km ]
1
Bundesamt für Wasser und Geologie: Hochwasserabschätzung in schweizerischen Einzugsgebieten, Praxishilfe, Berichte des BWG, Serie
Wasser, Nr. 4, Bern, 2003.
c) Kölla meso (1986) / run time method (Laufzeitverfahren)
Rational Formula HQx  rx  t c  s  Fn

3
HQx peak discharge of a flood with an x-year return period [m /s]
rx precipitation intensity of an even with an x-year return period [mm/h]
tc concentration time of the catchment [h] (time span between the beginning of the precipitation and
the peak discharge of the flood)
ψs peak discharge coefficient [-]
2
Fn size of the catchment [km ]
Kölla HQx  (rx  t c ( x )  rs  f x )  ( FLeff ( x )  FLb )  0.278  Qvgl( x )

3
HQx peak discharge of a flood with an x-year return period [m /s]
rx precipitation intensity [mm/h] of a precipitation period of the duration tc
tc concentration time of the catchment [h] with tc = t1 + t2
t1 wetting time („Benetzungszeit“) [h]
t2 run time in channel [h]
rs melt water equivalent of the snow cover [mm/h]
fx losses [mm/h]
2
FLeff contributing area [km ]
2
FLb paved area [km ]
3
Qvgl runoff from the glacierized parts of the catchment [m /s]
3
0.278 conversion factor [mm/h]  [m /s]
d) GIUB’96 (Geographisches Institut der Universität Bern)
Approach 1: HQ100  a  Fn b and Qmax  a  Fn b
Approach 2: HQ100  a  MQ b and Qmax  a  MQ b
3
HQ100 peak discharge of a flood with a 100-year return period [m /s]
3
a specific parameter of the region [-]
b specific parameter of the region [-]
3
MQ annual average discharge [m /s]
2
Fn size of the catchment [km ]
NOTA:
Calculation of channel capacity at a certain location (for floods and debris flows):
A) Calculation of the mean flow velocity v (‘Manning-Strickler-equation’ after Henderson, 1964):
The flow velocity of a river depends on the slope and the hydraulic radius. The latter is described by the
relation of the flow height to the surface roughness. The Manning-Strickler relation can also be used for debris
flows, especially for more watery flows (see Rickenmann, 1999, for alternatives for granular debris flows)
2 1 A
v  ks  R 3  S 2
R A  h W P 2h  W
P
or for a wide channel: Rh
W
v flow velocity of river or debris flow [m/s]
ks
1/3
Strickler coefficient [m /s] h A
R hydraulic radius [m]
S slope gradient (height/length) [-]
2
A wetted area [m ]
P wetted perimeter [m] (thick line in figure ) hbankfull Abankfull
h flow height [m]
W flow width [m] P
Floods:
1. Measure the vnow, Rnow, and S for the actually flowing water to calculate the channel specific ks
2. Measure/calculate Rbankfull for a higher discharge which fills the entire channel to the top but does not
leave it
3. Use the calculated specific Strickler-coefficient ks and R to calculate v for the case when the entire
channel is filled with water
Debris flows:
1. Measure Rfull and/or hmax and the slope gradient S
2. Use a Strickler coefficient of 10
3. Calculate vfull
B) Calculation of bankfull discharge:
Qbankfull  vbankfull  Abankfull Q

3
discharge [m /s]
C) Calculation of excess discharge:
Qcalc Calculated discharge of a scenario (this can be HQ30, HQ100, Qmax or any other calculated value for a
specific scenario)
Floods:
1. Use the formula e.g. from GIUB’96 to calculate Qmax
2. Qexcess = Qcalc- Qbankfull  If Qcalc > Qbankfull, water will break out the channel!
Debris flows:
1. Use the empirical relationship of Rickenmann (1999) to calculate Qmax
3. Qexcess = Qcalc - Qbankfull  If Qcalc> Qbankfull, debris will break out the channel!
2
Rickenmann (1999)
Scheme/procedure for debris flow, flood and mass movement hazards:
(matrix for debris flows) (matrix for floods and mass movements)
 no low intensity for debris flows!
Scheme for hazard mapping based on the definition of intensity and probability of occurrence (García-
Martínez & López 2005 and Raetzo et al., 2002)
Schematic example for debris flow hazard mapping (example with Swiss matrix):
1) An intensity map is
produced for each scenario
(based on the maximum
flow height and the
maximum flow velocity).
2) The hazard matrix is

applied to assign the hazard
levels for each scenario and
intensity.
3) Three scenario-related
hazard maps result which
include the three hazard
levels. They need to be
consolidated to get the final
debris flow hazard map!
4) The final hazard map

includes always the highest
hazard level of the above
scenario-related hazard
maps (for each point).

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Natural Hazards in Mountain Regions,

‘Diplomado Internacional en Glaciología, Cambio

Monday, Oct: 15, 2012

Group 1: Alejo Cochachín Group 2: Daniel Colonia

Group 3: Luzmila Dávila Group 4: Jesús Gómez

Group 5: Edwin Loarte Group 6: Arnaldo Tacsi

Group 7: Helder Mallqui

After the course, the participants should be able to…

 … understand and correctly apply the terminologies related to hazards.

5. Risk analysis approach

A risk analysis is carried out as following:

Process Product Serving as a basis for...

Small event (~30 year return period)

 Rainfall intensity: 10mm/h, 5h long

Proceed analogously as for small event

Intensity and hazard matrix for debris flows:

Medium debris flow scenarios (~100 year return period):

Large debris flow scenarios (~300 year return period):

HQ100 100-year return period peak runoff [m3/s]

Medium event (~100 year return period)

1) Area of the catchment of Río Vilcanota in Pisac: 7000km²

Intensity and hazard matrices for floods:

Medium flood scenario (~100 year return period):

Large flood scenario (~300 year return period):

1. Debris flow hazards (values / map)

a) Kürsteiner (1917) / Heusser (1947)

Rational Formula HQx  rx  t c  s  Fn

Kölla HQx  (rx  t c ( x )  rs  f x )  ( FLeff ( x )  FLb )  0.278  Qvgl( x )

Approach 1: HQ100  a  Fn b and Qmax  a  Fn b

Approach 2: HQ100  a  MQ b and Qmax  a  MQ b

A) Calculation of the mean flow velocity v (‘Manning-Strickler-equation’ after Henderson, 1964):

or for a wide channel: Rh

B) Calculation of bankfull discharge:

Qbankfull  vbankfull  Abankfull Q

C) Calculation of excess discharge:

Scheme/procedure for debris flow, flood and mass movement hazards:

 no low intensity for debris flows!

2) The hazard matrix is

4) The final hazard map

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