Proceedings of the 7th Asian Conference on Refrigeration and Air Conditioning

ACRA2014
May 18-21, 2014, Jeju, KOREA

ACRA2014-XXXXX

ACRA2014
MODEL-BASED PREDICTIVE MAINTENANCE OF CHILLERS
Yan Ke1), Timothy Mulumba1), Wen Shen1), and Afshin Afshari1,2)
1)
Department of Engineering Systems & Management, Masdar Institute of Science and Technology, PO Box 54224, Abu
Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
2)
Corresponding author: aafshari@masdar.ac.ae

ABSTRACT: This paper investigates the advantages of time series modeling for chiller Fault Detection &
Diagnosis (FDD), in comparison to standard data-based or residual-based approaches. Specifically, we study
a hybrid method incorporating a dynamic model and machine learning techniques. Via recursive estimation of
the model parameters, we convert the process measured data into a parameter vector—updated at each
sampling time step. We then apply the Support Vector Machines (SVM) technique to sub-divide the
parameter space, enabling fault classification. The proposed approach is validated using real data measured
during normal and faulty chiller operation, produced by an ASHRAE research project. The results of this
investigation indicate the superiority of the proposed hybrid method over conventional approaches with
higher prediction accuracy and lower false alarm rates. The dynamic model produces a better fit with more
statistically significant coefficients than the conventional, linear regression equivalents. It is therefore easier
to detect a parameter change when a fault occurs.

1. INTRODUCTION multiple linear regression model with diagnosis table,

In large Heating Ventilation & Air-Conditioning
(HVAC) plants, the chiller is the most expensive piece of
equipment. Lack of timely maintenance/repair can lead
to premature failure of the chiller and incur significant
cost and discomfort. Therefore, Fault Detection &
Diagnosis (FDD) should be an integral part of a modern
Building Automation System (BAS).
Grimmelius et al developed an empirical fault diagnostic
system for a chiller, combining fault detection and
diagnostics in a single step [1]. A reference linear
regression was modeled with data from a normally
operating chiller. Peitsman and Bakker used a black box
model for fault detection and compared diagnostic
performance of an auto-regressive moving-average
model with exogenous variables (ARMAX) and an
artificial neural network (ANN) model [2]. ANN models
had slightly better performance than ARMAX models in
detecting faults. Tuip et al developed a prototype
procedure for an on-line, self-learning fault detection
tool on building level [3]. By taking passive user
behavior into account, the tool aimed to distinguish real
faults from unexpected user behavior. Jia & Reddy
proposed an online model based FDD method for
medium to large chillers [4]. Six process faults were
identified based on five features developed from fifteen
monitored variables. Kourti applied the principal
component analysis (PCA) method [5]. Reddy proposed
a general methodology for evaluating FDD methods
using steady state data and evaluated four multivariate
model-based FDD methods against laboratory chiller
performance data [6]. All four methods were data-driven
methods: model-free fault detection with diagnosis table,
PCA model with diagnosis table, and linear discriminate
analysis. Wang et al separated the FDD for system faults
and sensor faults [7]. They used a reference regression
model to validate the performance indices computed
from measurements. Zhao et al proposed a pattern
recognition based chiller fault detection method using
support vector data description [8]. Qin et al first
proposed a hybrid approach to solve the FDD problem
for VAV terminals [9]. Han et al suggested another
hybrid approach utilizing SVM to implement FDD for
chillers [10]. A data set containing normal and faulty
operational data samples is divided into two parts. The
first part with known fault types is trained using SVM.
The second part is treated as testing data set to validate
the system. This method achieves extremely high
accuracy when 10-second data is used. The accuracy
drops when the time interval increases. Liang & Du
proposed a hybrid method combining a physical model
with SVM [11]. First the measured data is converted to
residuals. Then the residuals are input into SVM for
classification.
2. PROBLEM DESCRIPTION AND PROPOSED
APPROACH
In this paper, we study a hybrid method
incorporating a dynamic model and machine learning
techniques. Via recursive estimation of the model
parameters, we convert the measured data into a
parameter vector--updated at each sampling time step.
We then apply machine learning techniques, such as
support vector machines to sub-divide the parameter
space, enabling fault classification. In comparison to
traditional model-based or data-driven methods, the
combination of time series modeling and machine
learning techniques is shown to produce higher
detection/diagnosis accuracy and lower false alarm rates
in FDD for chillers.
Our approach is validated using real data for
normal and faulty operation, generated in the course of
the ASHRAE research project 1043-RP [12]. We use
only 6 features--far fewer than in comparable studies.
Applicable algorithms for implementing the strategy are
formulated. After training for generic chiller types, these
algorithms can be integrated in advanced building
management systems to accurately detect and diagnose
the faults commonly observed in chillers.
We develop a robust strategy that is suitable for
FDD application to chillers, where both sensor faults and
chiller faults may co-exist. Auto-regressive modeling
with exogenous inputs (ARX) and support vector
machine techniques (SVM) are combined to construct a
new hybrid model for FDD of chillers. The proposed
chiller FDD scheme effectively and accurately (accuracy
> 90% and false alarm rates < 1%) identifies different
types of chiller faults.
3. METHOD
The measured data set is pre-processed by
estimating the parameters of a dynamic ARX model at
each time step: At each time step, a point in the
parameter space is identified and replaces the original
data point for training and testing with SVM. The
structure of the ARX model is defined by pre-whitening
of the original data. At the validation stage, we
implement and evaluate three approaches: 1) a pure data-
driven approach which applies SVM with different
kernels directly to the original data set; this is similar to
the approach proposed by Han et al [10]; 2) a hybrid
approach which pre-processes the data set using a linear
regression model and applies SVM on residuals; this is
similar to the approach proposed by Liang & Du [11]; 3)
a hybrid approach which pre-processes the data set using
an ARX model and applies SVM on parameters. The first
two methods assume that the underlying system is static.
The third (hybrid) method explicitly accounts for the
dynamic nature of the process.
The ASHRAE data set contains both normal and
faulty data for a 90-ton (316 kW) chiller. Based on the
results of chiller fault survey [12] and our understanding
of the most common faults in the region, five typical
faults were investigated in this study:
• Reduced condenser water flow (F1),
• Reduced evaporator water flow (F2),
• Condenser fouling (F3),
• Non-condensables in refrigerant (F4),
• Refrigerant leak (F5).
In this work, we use the reduced data set, logged
every two minutes, in order to be closer to a realistic
low-cost implementation. For each severity level of each
fault, we have a data file of approximately 432 samples.
The original data set consists of 65 monitored
variables which may create heavy computational load for
models and classifiers if they were all to be analyzed. In
a realistic implementation, we may be short of sensors to
capture such comprehensive data set or some sensors
(e.g., pressure sensors) may be difficult to retrofit onto
an existing plant. A feature selection technique is then
crucial to select the most relevant and accessible
variables. The top ten most significant dependent
variables are shown in Table 1. From those, we choose
only kW, TCO-TCI and TEO-TEI as benchmark
variables to be modeled as ARX processes (“dependent”
variables). As for the exogenous (“independent”)
variables, the most convenient and informative are TCI,
TEO and Evap-Tons, respectively, condenser input water
temperature, evaporator output water temperature and
tons of cooling delivered by the evaporator coil (a
calculated variable).
Table 1: Ten most important features/variables selected
from the original data set.
Pre-whitening is applied to the dependent variables
(KW, TCO TCI and TEO TEI) to determine the suitable
lags for each parameter. In practice, although the system
may be non-stationary, the data may be transformed to
white noise by replacement with the residuals from a
fitted auto-regressive integrated moving-average
(ARIMA) model. For a quick preliminary analysis,
approximate pre-whitening can be done easily by first
differentiating the data (if needed) and then fitting an
approximate AR model with the order determined by
minimizing the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) [13].
The specification of which lags of the independent
variable enter into the model is often done by inspecting
the sample cross-correlation function based on the pre-
whitened data.
The ARX models produce a better fit with more
statistically significant coefficients than the conventional,
linear regression equivalents. Additionally, tests on the
residuals from these models show that they do not
violate any of the Gauss-Markov assumptions. We have
validated the model using out-of-sample data, i.e., data
not used to estimate the parameters but corresponding to
similar operating conditions. The model’s prediction
performance is excellent with a Root Mean Square Error
(RMSE) of 1.98 (about 2.5% of the peak).
3.1 Support Vector Machine (SVM)
The SVM technique is a supervised learning
model that categorizes data and recognizes patterns. For
a given a set of training data with known categories,
SVM assigns to each data sample a point in a high
dimensional space. Next, the data is classified by sub-
dividing the high dimensional space using hyper-planes.
Ideally, the hyper-planes separate the training samples as
widely as possible to unambiguously distinguish new test
sample categories.
3.2 An Overview of Proposed Hybrid Method
A hybrid approach combining ARX model and
SVM is desirable to improve the accuracy of the FDD
analysis. In the proposed hybrid approach, we pre-
process the data using ARX models to remove auto- and
cross-correlations between variables. Then, we use
parameters instead of the original data to do the fault
detection and diagnosis in SVM. The proposed method
includes three separate phases:
(1) Transform the original data set (training and
testing subsets) into a set of ARX model parameters;
(2) Train the SVM classifier for detection (using
binary SVM) and diagnosis (using multi-class SVM)
using the parameter data set;
(3) Apply the trained SVM classifiers on the
testing data and compute prediction accuracy and false
alarm rates.
4. RESULTS
The proposed hybrid method is validated with the
data from ASHRAE Project 1043-RP. We divide the
reduced data set (two minutes interval) into two subsets
with a ratio of 3:1. The first subset is the “training” data
set, where all data samples are assigned to fault labels. A
fault label can be Normal, Fault 1, Fault 2, Fault 3, Fault
4 or Fault 5, which corresponds to normal data, reduced
condenser water flow, reduced evaporator water flow,
condenser fouling, non-condensables in refrigerant and
refrigerant leak, respectively. The second subset (3 times
smaller) is the “testing” (or validation) data set, where all
data samples have unknown fault label. The fault labels
of the testing data set are only revealed after the fault
diagnosis in order to calculate the classification accuracy
and false alarm rates. To assess the performance of the
proposed hybrid method, we also implement two
conventional FDD approaches:
(1) The first approach applies SVM directly to the
chiller data, which is similar to the method proposed by
Han et al [10].
(2) The second approach adopts an approach
similar to that of Liang and Du [11]. We construct a
static regression model similar to the one suggested by
the authors of the report of ASHRAE Project 1043-RP.
The difference between the simulation results and the
actual data, i.e. the residuals of the regression model, are
used for training and testing in SVM.
5. DISCUSSION
Although the hybrid model uses only the first three
dependent variables from Table 1, we provide all 10
variables to the alternative conventional approaches.
Therefore, the hybrid model is severely handicapped in
the comparison. Nonetheless, it manages to outperform
the conventional approaches. To facilitate comparison,
we separate the steps of fault detection and fault
diagnosis. Both the prediction accuracy and false alarm
rates are reported. The proposed hybrid method
outperforms both existing methods. Prediction accuracy
and false alarm rates are improved significantly.
Direct application of SVM on the data results in an
overall (all faults and levels combined) fault detection
accuracy of 72.1% while the false alarm rate exceeds
20%. The overall fault diagnosis accuracy is 83.6%.
Application of SVM on regression model residuals
produces an overall fault detection accuracy of 82.6%
while the false alarm rate is 7.4%. As for diagnosis the
overall accuracy of this approach is 87.8%.
With the hybrid approach (ARX and SVM),
overall detection accuracy is better than 90% with a false
alarm rate of about 0.1%. Overall diagnosis accuracy is
also enhanced, exceeding 90%.
7. CONCLUSION
We compared the proposed hybrid approach with
existing FDD approaches applied to the chiller data set
from ASHRAE project RP-1043. The results show that
our approach outperforms both of the conventional
methods with higher prediction accuracy and lower false
alarm rates. Furthermore, it is important to point out that
we use far fewer dependent variables compared to the
other two approaches (three versus ten), which saves the
cost of sensors and makes practical large-scale
implementation more realistic.
After training for generic chiller types, these
algorithms can be integrated in advanced building
management systems to accurately detect and diagnose
the 5 faults commonly observed in chiller systems.
Future work will extend the application of the hybrid
method to AHUs. We are also working on a Kalman
filter based estimation algorithm, which is better suited
to on-line parameter identification.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This research was supported by the Executive Affairs
Authority (EAA) of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates as
part of the project Predictive Maintenance: Fault
Detection and Diagnosis of AC Equipment. The authors
would also like to thank Mr Michael Vaughn and Ms
Donna Daniel of ASHRAE for their assistance in
providing the chiller data of the ASHRAE Project RP-
1043.
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