hindsight bias (Paul Slovic and Baruch Fischoff) the tendancy to believe after learning

the outcome, that one would have foreseen it (I knew it all phenomenon) make outcome
of a study seem like common sense. scientific inquiry and critical thinking cna help us
overcome tihis tendency to oversetimate our unaided intuition

Richard Goranson- unscrambling words

Robert Vallone (students predicting year test)

Philip Tetlock- Ohio state university tests teacher predicting political economical and
military situations 80 percent confident, 40% right. convince themselves they were
“almost right”

hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate or intuition. BUt

scientific inquiry, fed by curios skepticim and by humiltiy can help us sift reality from
illusions.

James Randi- tested if people could see his aura

putting a scientific attitidude into pratice requires not only skeptism but also humilituy, as
we must reject our own ideas

Rodney Stark- scientific revolution led by religious fol “in oder to love and honor god it is
necessary to fully appreciate the wonders of his handiwork

critical thinking- thinking that does not blindly accept argucments and conclusions.
rather it examines assumptions, desicerns hidden values, evaluates evidence and
assesses conclusions

best to have a critical attitide that produces vulnerability- an awareness of our own
vulnerability to error and an openness to surpriess and new perspectives. not a negative
cynisism that scorns every unproven idea

scientific method- make observations, form theories and fine their theories in the light of
new observations

theory- mere hunch. an explantition using an integrated set of principles that organizes
and predicrs observations simplifes things, linking facts and bridging them ---> offers a
useful summary

hypothesis- a testable predictions, often impliesd by a theory

bias subject observations- looking for what we want to hear (turn neautreal comment
into depressed one) US senate select committee on intelligenec though iraq had
weapons of msas destrusction--> analysts wrongly interpreted an amiguous
observations as proving that theory and sent troups in

observationsal definitions- a statement of the procedures (operations_ used the define

research variables. i.e human intelligence may be operatinoally defined as what an
intelligence test measures

replication- reapeating of the essece of a research study usualyl with different

partici[ants in different situations, to see whether the basic finding extends to other
particiants and cirdumstances

to check bia people report their resacrch with precides operations deinitions of cencepts
that allow anyone to replicated their ovservations

scientific method0 a self correcting process for asking questions and oberving natures
power

theory is useful if it: effectively organizes a range of self reports and observations and
implies clear predictions that anyones can use to check the theory or to derice pratical
implications

case study- an observation techniwue in which one person is studief in depth in the
hape of revealing unferiversal principles. show us what CAN happen, suggest
hypothesis for further study

anecdotal cases- dramatic stories personal experiences even psychological case

examples that have a way of overwhelming general truth

Gordan Allport “given a thimbeful of dratmatic facts we rush to make generalizations as

large as a tub

Jean Piaget- test of kids thinking after only looking at a few kids

survey- a technique for ascertaining the self-reported attidudes or behaviors of people

susually by questions a represntattive, random sample of them. asks people to report
their behaviors or opinions

Harris and Gullop polls- 72% too much tv violence, 89% highly stressed, 84%=job
opportunities, 95% in god, 96% change their appearance
wordng effect- critical thinkers will relect on how the phrazing of a question might hae
affected the opinions respondents expressed

false consensus effect- (ross and other 1977) the tendancy to oversetimate the extent to
which other share of beliefs and behaviors, vegetarianst think there are many
vegetarians

representative sample- best basis for generalizing

we generalize from sample we observe (ie supermarket welfar-lexus) given a a)
statistical summar of a professors stydent evaulations and b) the vivid comments of 2
irate students an admins ipression of the prof may be influenced equally

population- all the cases in a group, from which samples may be drawn for a study
(expect for national studies, this foes noT refer to a county’s whole population)

random sample- a sample that fairly represents a populatipns because each member
has an equal change of inculsion -NOT A QUESTIONNAIRE- people who return it is not
a random sample). representative sample of 100>unrepresentative sample of 500

naturalistic observations- observing and recording behavior in naturally occuring

situations without trying to mainupulate and control the situation. like case and survery
studies it doesnt explain behaviors it describes them

Jane Goodall- chimp observor, they use tools. Complex society like our own

Andrew Whitman and Richard Byrne- baboon mom pretending to attack kid to save food

Mattias Mehl and James Pennebaker- students recorderded 30 seconds snippets, 28%
with someone 9% on computer

Gilda Morelli- observed the Efe people of Central africa for ocer 20 years

Robert Levine and Ara Norensayan- pace of life in 31 contries (walking speed, speed
with which postal clerks completed simple requests, accuracy of public clocks. fastst in
japen and western europe and colder countries, slower in less developed coutrnies.

Correlation- a measure of the extent to which two factors vary together, and thus of how
well either factor predcits the other. the Correlation Coefficient is the mathematical
expression of the relationship, randing from -1 to +1 (knowing how much aptitude test
scores correlate with school sccess tells us how well teh scores predict school success

scatterplots- a graphed cluster of dost, each of which represents the values pf two
variables. The slope of the points suggests the directions of the realtionship between
the two variables. The amoun of sctter suggests the strength of the correlation (little
scatter indicates high correlations)

a positive correlations means that the two scores rise and fall together, negative
correlations means that one goes up the other goes down or vice versa. weak
correlation- coefficient of zero

statistical illuminations shows us what we sometimes miss

correlation coefficient hleps us see the world more clearly by revealing the extent to
which two things relate

there is a correlation between how parents abusivenss and their childersn later
abusiveness, but it doesnt mean that most abuse dkids become abusive it just indicated
a statistical relationship

correlation indicates the possibility of a sause-effect relationship but does not prove
causation. often a third factor (i.e hair loss and length of marriage- 3rd factor of age)

Resnick and others- kids loved by parents, less likely to rebel

illusionary correlation- the perception of a relationship where non exists. when we

believe there is a relationship between 2 things we are likely to notice and recall
instances that confirm our belief (Trolier and Hamilton) . occurs when we over rely on
the top left cell of ingnoring equally essential info in the other cells (less likely to notice
those who adopt but never attempt to concieve) has ties with superstition. arise from our
natural eagerness to make sense of our world what Wallace Stevens called “rage for
order”

Physician Donald Redelmeier working with psychologist Amos Tverskey followed 18

arthritis pattients for 15 months to report their pain and daily weather- not correlated.

We are prone to percieving patterns when there are non

usually find our rage for oder people random sequences often dont appear random

Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky- coin flip test most people believe HTTHTH, but all
three are equally likely. poker hand of 10-ace no less likely than any other hand

Evelyn Maries Adoms won the New Jersey lotto twice- 1 in 7 trillion odds.

Stephan Samuels and George McCabe- given the milssions of pepoe who buy the US
lotto tickets it was almost a sure thing that it’d happen
an event that happens to but one in 1 billion people every day occurs about 6 times a
day, 2000 times a year

Roman Poet Virgil- “Happy are they, who have been able to percieve the causes of
things”

experiment- a research method in which an investigator manipulates one or more

factors (independant variables) to observe the effect of some behavior or mental
process (the dependant variable). By random assignment of participants, the
experimenter aims to control other relevant factors

allows a researcher to focus on possible effects of 1 or more factors by 1) manipulating

the factos of interest and 2) holding constant (“controlling”) other factors.

Alan Lucas- breast feeding v.s formula test. breast is best kids age 8 were smarter

unlike correlation studies, which uncover naturally ocurring relationshpis, an experiment

manipulates a factor to determine its effect

double blind procedure- an experimental procedure in which both the research

participants and the research staff are ignorant (blind) about whether the resarch
partiic[ants have recievied the treatment of a placebo- commonly used in drug-
evaluation studies

placebo effect- “I shall please” in Latin- experimental results caused by expectations

alone; any effects on behavior caused by the administration of an inert substance or
condition, which is assumed to be an active agent

experimental condition- the condition of an experiment that exposed participants to the

treatment, that ism to one version of the independent variable

control condition- the condition of an experiment that contrasts with the experimental
condition and serves as a comparison for evaluating the effects of the treatment

double bllind prodceure is one way to create an experimental confition in which people
recieve the treatment and a contrasting control condition without the treatment. by
randomly assigning poeple ot these conditions researchers can be fairly certain that the
2 groups are otherwise identical

random assignment- assigning participants to experimental and control conditions by

change, thus minimizing preexisting differences between those assigned to the different
groups
 random assignments roughly equalizes the groups in age, attitude and every other
characteristic

ie. women thinking they were taking hormones vd. ones taking placebo had more health
issues

independent variable- the experimental factor that is manipulates; the variable whose
effect is being studied

dependant variable- the outcome factor; the variable that may change in response to
manipulations of the independent variable

both variables are given precise operational definitions, which specify the procedures
that mainupate the independant variable (precise drug dosage and timing of the study)
or measure the dependent variable (the questions that assessed the men’s responses)

experiments can also help us evalauate sociam programs (i.e no smoking campaigns)
- they aim to manipulate an independent varible, meaure the dependent variable and
control all other variables

an experiment has at least 2 different conditions; an experimental conditions and a

comparison confition. Random assignment works to equate the conditions before any
treatment effects, In this way, an experiment tests the effect of at least one independent
variable (what we manipulate) on at least one dependent variable (the outcome we
measure.)

Having gathered data we must next organize, summarize and make inferences from it
using statistics.

Statistics- tools that help us see and interpret what the unaided eye might miss

read scale labels and note their range *statistics on bar graphs*

measure of central tendency- single score that represents a whole set of scores

mode- most requently occuring scores in a distribution- simplest measure

mean- the arithmetic average of a distribution, obtained by adding the scores and then
dividing by the number of scores- most commonly reported. Bias i.e bill gates in a cafe-
mean becomes a billionaire
 median- the middle score in a distributions, half the scores are above it and half are
below- 50th percentile.

variation in data- how similar or different the scores are. averages derived from scores
with low variability are more reliable than averages based on scores with high variability.

range- the difference between the highest and lowest scores in a distribution

standard deviation- a computed measure of how much scores vary around the mean
score- more useful stnadard for measuring how scores deviate from eachother- better
gauges whether scores are packde together or dispersed cause is uses info fmor each
score.

if your collefe attracts students of a certain ability level their intelligence scores will have
a smaller standard deviation that the one found int hte more diverse community
population outside your school.

When is an Observed Difference Reliable?

1) representative samples are better than biased samples

2) less-varible observations are mosre relaible than those that more more variable
3) more cases are better than fewer

statistical tests also help us determine whether differences are meaningful

WHen averages from 2 samples are each reliable measures of their repective
populations (as when each is based on many observations that have small variability)
then their difference (sometimes small difference) is likely to be reliable as well.

When the different bewteen the samples averages in large we have even more
confidence that the difference bweteen them reflects a real difference int heir
populations.

statistical significance- a statistical statement of how likely it is that an octained reulted

occured by change. indicates the likelihood that the result will occur by chance, not the
importance of the results

in judging statistival significance psychologists are ecoservative, innocent until proven

guilty. proof beyond a reasonable doubt means not making much of a finding unless the
odds of its occuring by chance are less than 5% (an arbitrary criterion)
 tests may be statistically significant but not practically (i.e 1st born tests scores
SLIGHTLY higher) Zajonc and Markus)

it is the resulting princples- not the specific findings that help explain everyday behaviors

as sychologists our concerns lie less with particular behaviors than with the gnereal
princples that help explain many behaviors

culture- the enduring behaviors, ideas, attitudes, and traditions sheared by a large group
of people and transmitted from one generation to the next

even when specific attitudes and behaviors vary across cultures as they often do, the
underlying processes are pretty much the same

biology determines our sex and then culture further bends the genders. still we’re both
human

Roger Ulrich- “We cannot defent our scientific work with our anicams on the basis of the
similatities between them and ourselves and then defent it morally on the basis of
differences”

30 million animals for research 1 for food

60% says animal testings ok in US+canada, britain only 37%

Scott Plous- compassion for animals varies depending on our similarities to them

98% of animals researchers supported gov. protection regulations, 74% supported for
rats and mice

ethical principles for testing on humans urge investigators to

1)obtain the informed consent of participants and
2) protect them from harm and discomfort
3) treat info about individuals confidentially
4) fully explain the research after

values affect what we study, how we study it, and how we interpret results\

a science of behavior and mental processes can certainly help us reach or goals but
its cant decide what those goals should be

words we use can reflect our values