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Step by Step Discounted Cash Flow Approach
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(https://www. Conclusion
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Factors in
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(https://www.
“
In simple words, Discounted Cash Flow or DCF analysis is a process of evaluating th
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Valuation In other words, DCF analysis uses the forecasted free cash ows of a
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Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
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Here the chances are more than you will consider taking the money
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Please note that DCF analysis entails you to think through
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A i h d d hi i l DCF l ill
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(https://www.wallstreetmoj
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methods/)
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Qualitative
Factors in
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Valuation
(https://www.
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Here are the seven steps to Discounted Cash Flow Analysis –
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(https://www. #6 – Adjustments
#7 – Sensitivity Analysis
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DCF Step #1 – Projections of the
Financial Statements
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The rst thing that needs your attention while applying discounted
com/valuation-
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(https://www.
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IMPORTANT – Do have a look at this step by step guide to Financial
(https://www.
Modeling in Excel (https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/free- nancial-
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com/best-
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The forecasting period plays a critical role because small rms grow
books/)
faster than the more mature rms and thus carry higher growth rate.
So, the analysts’ do not expect the rms to have in nite lives due to
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the fact that the small rms are more open to acquisition and
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o.com/) analysis is widely used during the estimated excess return period of a
methods/) rm in the future. In other words, a company that stops covering its
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Forecasting is done professionally using Financial Modeling
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(https://www.
wallstreetmojo. schedule, shareholder’s equity
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Valuation revenue growth of the company, growth rate of the industry the
(https://www. Many analysts call it top to bottom growth rate, wherein they
wallstreetmojo. rst look at the growth of economy, then the industry and at
com/valuation- last the company.
analyst/) However, there is another approach called internal growth rate
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Valuation
Analyst
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Projecting the Cash Flow Statements
wallstreetmojo. It is not necessary for you to project each and every item on the
com/valuation- Cash Flow Statements. Sometimes it becomes practically
analyst/) impossible to do so due to lack of data.
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DCF Step #2 – Calculating Free Cash
Flow to Firm
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Valuation
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Factors in
Valuation
(https://www.
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Before we estimate future free cash ow, we have to rst understand
-factors-
what free cash ow is. Free cash ow is the cash, which is left out
valuation/)
after the company pays all of the operating expenditure and required
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its growth such as developing new `products, establishing new
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Free cash ow re ects the rm’s ability to generate money out of its
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(https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/free-cash- ow- rm-fcff/) is as
follows –
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Valuation
Formula Comments
Analyst
wallstreetmojo.
com/best-
valuation-
After projecting the nancials of Alibaba, you can link the individual
books/)
items as given below to nd the Free Cash Flow Projections of
Alibaba
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5/17/2019 Discounted Cash Flow Analysis | Best Guide to DCF Valuation
(https://www.wallstreetmoj
o.com/)
methods/)
Valuation
Analyst Having estimated the free cash ows for the next ve years, we have
(https://www. to gure out the worth of these cash ows in the present time.
wallstreetmojo. However, to get to know the present value of these future cash ow,
com/valuation- we would require a discount rate that can be used to determine the
analyst/) net present value or NPV of these future cash ow.
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Qualitative
DCF Step 3- Calculating the
Factors in
Discount Rate
Valuation
-factors-
valuation/)
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Books
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books/)
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(https://www.wallstreetmoj
o.com/)
methods/)
Valuation
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(https://www.
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apply the concept of weighted average cost of capital, known as
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WACC. However, you have to keep in mind that you have taken the
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right gures of equity and after-tax cost of debt as the difference of
wallstreetmojo.
just one or two percentage point in the cost of capital will make a
com/qualitative
vast difference in the fair value of the company. Now, let us nd out
-factors-
how the cost of equity and debt are determined.
valuation/)
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Cost of Equity
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Books Unlike the debt portion that pays a set rate of interest, Equity does
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doesn’t mean that equity doesn’t bear a cost. We know that the
com/best- shareholders expect the company to deliver absolute returns on their
valuation-
investment in the company. Thus, from the rm’s viewpoint, the
books/)
required rate of return from the investors is the cost of equity
because if the company fails to deliver the required rate of return
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then the shareholders will sell their positions in the company. This, in
(https://www.wallstreetmojturn, will hurt the share price movement in the stock market.
o.com/)
methods/) The most common method to calculate the cost of capital is to apply
the capital asset pricing model or (CAPM)
Valuation
(https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/capm-beta-de nition-formula-
Analyst
calculate-beta-in-excel/). As per this method, the cost of equity
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would be (Re)= Rf + Beta (Rm-Rf).
wallstreetmojo.
com/valuation-
Where;
analyst/)
Qualitative equity-capm/)
Factors in RF= Risk-Free rate
Valuation Β = Beta
(https://www. Rm= Market Rate
wallstreetmojo.
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-factors-
Cost of Debt
valuation/) Cost of debt is easy to calculate as compared to the cost of equity
(https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/cost-of-equity-formula/). The rate
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implied to determine the cost of debt is the current market rate that
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the company pays on its current debt.
Books
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For the sake of simplicity in the context of the discussion, I have
wallstreetmojo.
taken the WACC gures directly as 9%.
com/best-
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(https://www.
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DCF Step 4 – Calculating the
com/valuation- Terminal Value
analyst/)
The fourth step in Discounted Cash Flow Analysis is to calculate
Qualitative
Factors in
Valuation
(https://www.
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valuation/)
7 Best
Valuation
Books
(https://www.
wallstreetmojo.
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We have already calculated the critical components of DCF analysis,
books/)
except terminal value. Therefore, we will now calculate the terminal
value followed by calculation of the discounted cash ow analysis.
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There are several ways to calculate the terminal value of cash ows.
(https://www.wallstreetmoj
However, the most commonly known method is to apply a perpetuity
o.com/)
methods/) method using the Gordon Growth Model
(https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/gordon-growth-model/) to value
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the company. The formula to calculate the terminal value
Analyst
(https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/terminal-value-formula-method-
(https://www.
calculations-in-excel/) for future cash ow is:
wallstreetmojo.
com/valuation-
Terminal Value = Final year projected cash ow * (1+ In nite
analyst/)
growth rate)/ (Discount rate-Long term cash ow growth rate)
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(https://www.
wallstreetmojo.
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valuation/)
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(https://www.wallstreetmoj
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methods/)
Valuation
Analyst
(https://www.
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analyst/)
Top 10 Find the present value of the projected cash ows using NPV
Qualitative formulas (https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/npv-in-excel/) and XNPV
Factors in
formulas (https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/npv-vs-xnpv/).
Valuation
(https://www. Projected cash ows of the rm are divided into two parts –
wallstreetmojo.
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-factors- 2022E)
valuation/) Period after the explicit period (post 2022E)
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Present Value of Explicit Forecast Period
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Calculate the Present Value of the Explicit Cash Flows using WACC
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derived above
analyst/)
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valuation/)
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Valuation
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Top 10 Adjustments to the Discounted Cash Flow valuations is done for all
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value (https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/equity-value/).
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(https://www.wallstreetmojUnderfunded/overfunded pension
Market Value
o.com/) liabilities
methods/)
Environmental Liabilities Based on company reports
Valuation
Analyst
Operating Lease Liabilities
wallstreetmojo. cial-lease-vs-operating-lease/)
com/valuation-
Minority Interest
analyst/) Market Value or Estimated
(https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/minor
Value
Top 10 ity-interest-guide-examples/)
Qualitative
Market Value or Estimated
Factors in Investments
Value
Valuation
-factors-
valuation/) Adjust your valuation for all assets and liabilities, for example, non-
core assets and liabilities, not accounted for in cash ow projections.
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The enterprise value may need to be adjusted by adding other
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unusual assets or subtracting liabilities to re ect the company’s fair
Books
value. These adjustments include:
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(https://www.wallstreetmoj
o.com/)
methods/)
Valuation
analyst/)
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(https://www.
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It is important to test your DCF model with the changes in
books/)
assumptions. Two of the most important assumptions that have a
major impact on valuations are as follows
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wallstreetmojo.
Below chart shows the sensitivity analysis of Alibaba’s DCF
com/valuation-
Valuation Model.
analyst/)
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Qualitative
Factors in
Valuation
(https://www.
wallstreetmojo.
We note that the base case valuation of Alibaba is at $78.3 per
com/qualitative
share.
-factors-
When WACC changes from 9% to say 11%, then the DCF
valuation/)
valuation decreases to $57.7
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then the fair DCF valuation becomes $106.5
Books
(https://www.
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com/best-
valuation-
Now we have come to know that Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
books/)
helps to calculate the value of the company today based on the
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upon the sum of the cash ow that the company produces in the
Valuation
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (DCF
Analyst
Valuation) Video
(https://www.
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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis | Step by Ste…
Ste…
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Recommended Articles
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This has been a guide to Discounted Cash Flow Valuation analysis.
Valuation
Here we discuss the 7 step approach to build a Discounted Cash
Books
Flow model of Alibaba including projections, FCFF, discount rate,
(https://www.
wallstreetmojo.
com/best-
valuation-
terminal value, present value, adjustments and sensitivity analysis.
books/)
You may also have a look at these following articles to learn more
about Valuations –
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com/valuation- capital/)
(https://www.
(https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/cost-of-capital-formula/)
wallstreetmojo. Formula for Gordon Growth Model
com/qualitative (https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/gordon-growth-model-
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valuation/) Mistakes in Discounted Cash Flows
(https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/mistakes-in-discounted-cash-
7 Best
ows-dcf/)
Valuation
(https://www. (https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/enterprise-value/)
Guide to P/E Ratio (https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/pe-ratio/)
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