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RETAIL
North Carolina Major Metros Q2/19
Strong Economies in North Carolina
Supporting Retail Markets Retail 2019 Outlook
Y-O-Y
Charlotte retail market remains healthy due to strong demographic Metro Vacancy Basis Point Asking Y-O-Y
Rent Change
drivers. Retailers searching for dark space in the Queen City have been Change
met with limited options during the past year due to relatively sub-
dued construction. Developers are increasing activity in 2019, though Charlotte 4.4% 20 $15.76 2.9%
pre-leasing above 70 percent is indicative of pent-up demand in the mar-
ket. Impressive job growth will continue to support consumer spending
Raleigh-Durham 3.0% -10 $18.58 2.7%
and the overall retail market over the next several months. Some of those
positions come from the BB&T-SunTrust merger that will bring a new
Greensboro/
Fortune 500 headquarters to the city. Several other employers are also
Winston-Salem/ 5.1% 20 $13.18 4.1%
expanding, lifting annual job growth to the highest pace since 2017.
High Point
Raleigh
• Neighborhood centers moved to the top of investors’ wish lists during
Price Per Square Foot Trends the past year as grocery-anchored assets draw consistent traffic. Aver-
age multi-tenant cap rates are approximately 7 percent.
Single-Tenant Multi-Tenant
• Single-tenant properties garner significant attention when listed in
30%
the market. Buyers are acquiring storefronts in an effort to expand
Year-over-Year Appreciation
0%
Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point
-15%
• Multi-tenant activity advanced over the last 12 months, though the
secondary market cap rate premium is beginning to dissipate. Average
-30%
first-year returns are in the mid-7 percent range.
* 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
• The local single-tenant market is indistinguishable from larger
markets as buyer demand outstrips supply.
Local Retail Yield Trends
* Cap rates trailing 12 months through 1Q19; 10-year Treasury up to March 29
Retail
Includes sales $1 million and Capfor
greater Rate 10-Year
Charlotte, Raleigh, Treasury Rate
Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point
Sources: CoStar Group, Inc.; Real Capital Analytics
12%
9%
ate
CHARLOTTE
Year-over-Year Appreciation
Year-over-Year Change
5% 15% • Employers created 29,200 jobs over the past year, led by 8,300
positions in the professional and business services sector. Leisure
0%
0% and hospitality employers contributed 5,600 spots during the
period, representing a 4 percent rise.
-5% -15%
• Job growth will accelerate this year as 32,000 jobs are added, lifting
-10%
-30% total employment 2.6 percent. In 2018, local firms created 23,900
09 10 11 12
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
positions, or 2.013 percent.
14 15 16 17 18 19*
2,250
9%
• During the most recent 12-month period, builders added 1.1 percent
Average Rate
1,500 6%
to retail inventory as 1.5 million square feet came online. A nearly
equal amount of new space was underway at the end of the first
750 3% quarter with pre-leasing above 70 percent.
*Forecast
Demographic Highlights
Southwest 2.1% -10 $21.47 1.3% • Single-Tenant: Single-tenant deal flow inched higher during the past
year as more convenience stores changed hands. The average price
North 2.3% -80 $19.29 28.6% advanced 6 percent to $377 per square foot.
Cabarrus County 2.7% -20 $14.00 10.9% Outlook: Average cap rates for multi-tenant properties dipped 30 basis
points into the low-7 percent range, while single-tenant first-year returns
Rowan County 2.9% 10 $6.20 8.4% are in the high-6 percent area.
Year-over-Year Appreciation
Year-over-Year Change
6% 12% • Job growth surged in the first quarter as 9,500 jobs were added
to staff counts. With an unemployment rate in the mid-3 percent
0%
0% range, companies’ ability to expand headcounts are limited by
available talent.
-6% -12%
• Employers are anticipated to remain aggressive with hiring
-12%
-24% practices this year by adding 30,000 positions, amounting to a 3.2
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
percent increase.
Retail Completions
Completions Absorption CONSTRUCTION
2,800
370,000 square feet completed Y-O-Y
Square Feet (thousands)
2,100
• Over the last 12 months, builders expanded inventory by a scant
1,400 0.4 percent, with only a few hundred thousand square feet coming
online. Only 120,000 square feet was delivered in the first quarter.
700
• Developers will complete 1.3 million square feet of retail space
this year, lifting supply 1.5 percent. Pre-leasing is healthy at nearly
0
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* 80 percent between the two metros. Most of this year’s space is in
anchored neighborhood and community centers.
• The average asking rent will climb 2.7 percent to $18.58 per square
-12% foot this year, building on the 1.8 percent rise recorded in 2018. The
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
Glenwood-Creedmoor submarket is expected to be among the stron-
gest rent growth areas.
*Forecast
Demographic Highlights
Raleigh 1.1% -10 $23.13 4.9% • Single-Tenant: When compared with the previous year, single-tenant
velocity was relatively flat during the past 12 months. Buyers paid an
Person County 1.7% -30 $10.17 -2.8% average price of $334 per square foot, up 3 percent.
RTP-RDU 2.3% -710 $27.25 1.1% Outlook: Single-tenant cap rates remained relatively stable in the mid-6
percent range, while multi-tenant cap rates ticked modestly lower in the
Chatham County 2.4% -100 $13.82 3.0% past year to 7 percent.
Year-over-Year Appreciation
Year-over-Year Change
5% 25% 4,600 jobs in the metro. The education and health services sector
generated 2,300 positions while the leisure and hospitality sector
0% 0%
created 1,600 spots, representing growth of 2.2 percent and 2.4
-25% percent, respectively.
-5%
Retail Completions
Completions Absorption
CONSTRUCTION
2,000
370,00 square feet completed Y-O-Y
Square Feet (thousands)
1,000
• Development remains relatively subdued in the market as 370,000
0
square feet was added during the 12-month period ending in the
first quarter. An additional 380,000 square feet is underway, though
-1,000 approximately half of that space has leasing commitments.
-2,000
• A total of 550,000 square feet of space will be added to retail stock
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* this year, lifting inventory 0.6 percent. The largest project underway
is Wendover Towne Center.
12%
VACANCY
9% 20 basis point increase in vacancy Y-O-Y
Vacancy Rate
6%
• In the first quarter, vacancy was 5.0 percent, up 20 basis points
from the same period last year. The increase in this year’s
3% opening period marked the first annual gain in vacancy since
early 2010.
0%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* • Marketwide vacancy will tick up to 5.1 percent by year end,
representing an annual gain 20 basis points. Multi-tenant
vacancy was 7.7 percent in the first quarter.
Asking Rent Trends
Metro United States
14%
RENTS:
Year-over-Year Change
7%
• Operators asked for $12.28 per square foot in the first quarter, 2.2
-7%
percent higher than one year ago. Annual asking rent changes vary
significantly in the market due to low vacancy and small inventory.
-14%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* • By year end, the average asking rent will climb to $13.18 per square
foot, up 4.1 percent annually. During the previous five years, average
asking rent growth was 3.1 percent.
* Forecast
Demographic Highlights
Asheboro 0.2% -130 $10.00 0.0% • Single-Tenant: Single-tenant prices declined 9 percent to $300 per
square foot year over year. Fewer high-priced fast-food restaurants
Greensboro CBD 1.8% -110 $15.38 2.3% sold during the period.
Stokes County 2.4% -50 $11.96 0.0% Outlook: In the most recent year-long period, average single-tenant cap
rates ticked up to the mid-6 percent range. Multi-tenant cap rates held
Airport-West Guilford County 2.7% -150 $19.06 29.0% steady in the mid-7 percent area.
North Greensboro-
3.3% -60 $14.72 -3.0%
Guilford County
rates reflecting more caution. Fed officials will likely focus on the
75% CMBS intersection
Baltimore Office: of a global growth slowdown and continued labor Tim Speck
market First Vice Preside
Reg'l/Local Bank tim.speck@marcusmillichap.com
strength to refi ne their
Matthew Drane Regional Manager plans moving forward, keeping interest rates
50% Nat'l Bank/Int'l Bank
100 stable forSuite
E. Pratt St., the2114
foreseeable future. Dallas Office:
Financial/Insurance Baltimore, MD 21202 5001 Spring Valley Road, Suite 10
Pvt/Other • Malls,
Tel: legacy
(202) 536-3700 big-box players cloud otherwise optimistic
| matthew.drane@marcusmillichap.com retail
Dallas, TX 75244
25% (972) 755-5200
landscape; underwriting remains conservative. Uncertainty
surrounding legacy retailers and the ongoing shift of consumer Fort Worth Office:
0% 300 Throckmorton Street, Suite 1
14 15 16 17 18 purchasing preferences to online sources have begun to weigh on
(817) 932-6100
retail
Boston sentiment, with lenders proving more cautious and conservative
Office:
* Trailing 12 months through 1Q19 than in prior years of the cycle. Active lenders include local, regional
Include sales $2.5 million and greater
John Horowitz First Vice President/Regional Manager
100 and
High national
Street, Suite banks,
1025 and insurance companies, with a primary lender
Sources: CoStar Group, Inc.; Real Capital Analytics
focus
Boston, MA on net-leased assets and premier mixed-use structures being
02110
(617) 896-7200 | tim.thompson@marcusmillichap.com
highly desirable. Meanwhile, outlying malls and non-credit tenants
Denver Office:
National Retail Group will undergo much more scrutiny. This has created a two-tier market
Skyler Cooper Regional Ma
Scott M. Holmes structure, with loan-to-value (LTV) ratios in the 55 to 75 1225 percent
17th Street, Suite 1800
Denver, CO 80202
Senior Vice President, National Director | National Retail Group range depending
Charleston Office:
on borrower, asset and location factors. Mezzanine
(303) 328-2000 | skyler.cooper@
Tel: (602) 687-6689 | scott.holmes@marcusmillichap.com and bridge loan structures have been more frequently used in this
Benjamin Yelm Regional Manager
environment, with owners undertaking capital improvements at high-
151 Meeting Street, Suite 450
Edited by
er leverage
Charleston, SC 29401ratios on the short-term debt before seeking long-term
James Reeves (843) 952-2222 | benjamin.yelm@marcusmillichap.com
Publications Director| Research Services financing options once their operations have been proved.
Detroit Office:
For information on national retail trends, contact:
John Chang Steven Chaben Senior Vice
Two Towne Square, Suite 450
Senior Vice President, National Director | Research Services
Southfield, MI 48076
Tel: (602) 707-9700 | john.chang@marcusmillichap.com Charlotte Office: (248) 415-2600 | steven.chaben@
Price: $250
Benjamin Yelm Regional Manager
201 South Tryon Street, Suite 1220
Charlotte, NC 28202
© Marcus & Millichap 2019 | www.MarcusMillichap.com (704) 831-4600 | benjamin.yelm@marcusmillichap.com
The information contained in this report was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. Every Edmonton Office:
Chicago Area Offices:
effort was made to obtain accurate and complete information; however, no representation, warranty
or guarantee, express or implied, may be made as to the accuracy or reliability of the information Richard Matricaria Senior Vice President/Division Manager Rene H. Palsenbarg Regi
333 West Wacker Drive, Suite 200, Chicago, IL 60606 10180 101 Street, Suite 3400
contained herein. Note: Metro-level employment growth is calculated based on the last month of the
(312) 327-5400 | richard.matricaria@marcusmillichap.com Edmonton, Alberta T5J 3S4
quarter/year. Sales data includes transactions valued at $1,000,000 and greater unless otherwise (604) 675-5200 | rene.palsenbarg
David Bradley Regional Manager | Chicago Downtown
noted. This is not intended to be a forecast of future events and this is not a guaranty regarding a
333 West Wacker Drive, Suite 200, Chicago, IL 60606
future event. This is not intended to provide specific investment advice and should not be considered (312) 327-5479 | david.bradley@marcusmillichap.com
as investment advice.
Steven Weinstock First Vice President/Regional Manager
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services; Bureau of Labor Statistics; CoStar Group, Inc.; One Mid America Plaza Suite 200
Experian; Moody’s Analytics; Real Capital Analytics; TWR/Dodge Pipeline; U.S. Census Bureau Oakbrook Terrace, IL 60181
(630) 570-2250 | steven.weinstock@marcusmillichap.com