Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.9554127
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.91281343
R^2 ajustado 0.90658581
Error típico 345.508935
Observaciones 16

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Regresión 1 17497621.1 17497621.1 146.575182
Residuos 14 1671269.93 119376.424
Total 15 19168891

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad

Intercepción 2592.74761 214.873422 12.0663951 8.7135E-09
Variable X 1 226.855882 18.7378528 12.1068238 8.3469E-09
Valor crítico de F
8.3469E-09

Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%

Superior 95.0%
2131.88996 3053.60527 2131.88996 3053.60527
186.667185 267.04458 186.667185 267.04458
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente d 0.72837255
Coeficiente 0.53052657
R^2 ajustado 0.49699275
Error típico 647.425011
Observacione 16

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 6631367.55 6631367.55 15.8206438 0.0013754
Residuos 14 5868228.03 419159.145
Total 15 12499595.6

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%
Intercepción 1731.22077 402.636267 4.29971395 0.00073395 867.651867 2594.78968 867.651867
Variable X 1 139.656801 35.111551 3.9775173 0.0013754 64.3500143 214.963589 64.3500143
Superior 95.0%
2594.78968
214.963589
METODO ESTATICO: SPECIALTY PACKGING COPRPORATION, PARTE A

TABLA 7-4 Demanda historica trimestral de envase de plastico transparentes y

oscuros

TRIMESTRE Demanda de plástico oscuro Demanda de plástico

AÑO (000 lb) claro (000 lb)
2002 I 2250 3200
II 1737 7658
III 2412 4420
IV 7269 2384
2003 I 3514 3654
II 2143 8680
III 3459 5695
IV 7056 1953
2004 I 4120 4742
II 2766 13673
III 2556 6640
IV 8253 2737
2005 I 5491 3486
II 4382 13186
III 4315 5448
IV 12035 3485
2006 I 5648 7728
II 3696 16591
III 4843 8236
IV 13097 3316

Demanda de plástico
AÑO TRIMESTRE
PERIODO (t) oscuro (000 lb)
2002 I 1 2250
II 2 1737
III 3 2412
IV 4 7269
2003 I 5 3514
II 6 2143
III 7 3459
IV 8 7056
2004 I 9 4120
II 10 2766
III 11 2556
 IV 12 8253
2005 I 13 5491
II 14 4382
III 15 4315
IV 16 12035
2006 I 17 5648
II 18 3696
III 19 4843
IV 20 13097
2007 21
2008 22
2009 23

p= 4 S(1,5,9,13,17)=
p/2= 2 S(2,6,10,14,18)
S(3,7,11,15,19)
INTERCEPTO 2593 S(4,8,12,16,20)
PENDIENTE (x) 227

Demanda de plástico
AÑO TRIMESTRE
PERIODO (t) claro (000 lb)
2002 I 1 3200
II 2 7658
III 3 4420
IV 4 2384
2003 I 5 3654
II 6 8680
III 7 5695
IV 8 1953
2004 I 9 4742
II 10 13673
III 11 6640
IV 12 2737
2005 I 13 3486
II 14 13186
III 15 5448
IV 16 3485
2006 I 17 7728
II 18 16591
III 19 8236
IV 20 3316
 2007 21
2008 22
2009 23

p= 4 S(1,5,9,13,17)=
p/2= 2 S(2,6,10,14,18)=
S(3,7,11,15,19)=
S(4,8,12,16,20)=
INTERCEPTO 1731
PENDIENTE (x) 140
 Demanda de plástico oscuro (000 lb)
14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
AÑO 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Demanda Demanda desestacionalizada 2 Factor DEMANDA

desestacionalizada 1 (Dt) estacional(St) FUTURA
2819.603 0.798
3046.459 0.570
3575 3273.315 0.737
3783.75 3500.171 2.077
3965.375 3727.027 0.943
4069.625 3953.883 0.542
4118.75 4180.739 0.827
4272.375 4407.595 1.601
4237.375 4634.451 0.889
4274.125 4861.306 0.569
4595.125 5088.162 0.502
 4968.5 5315.018 1.553
5390.375 5541.874 0.991
6083 5768.730 0.760
6575.375 5995.586 0.720
6509.25 6222.442 1.934
6489.5 6449.298 0.876
6688.25 6676.153 0.554
6903.009 0.702
7129.865 1.837
6615.7
4541.6
5448.3

0.899
0.599
0.698
1.800

Demanda Demanda desestacionalizada 2 Factor DEMANDA

desestacionalizada 1 (Dt) estacional(St) FUTURA
1870.88 1.71
2010.53 3.81
1961.75 2150.19 2.06
2638.25 2289.85 1.04
2177.875 2429.50 1.50
2712.125 2569.16 3.38
2473.25 2708.82 2.10
3282.375 2848.48 0.69
2727.375 2988.13 1.59
4004.5 3127.79 4.37
2688.5 3267.45 2.03
4041.625 3407.10 0.80
2382.5 3546.76 0.98
4074.25 3686.42 3.58
2763.75 3826.07 1.42
4593.375 3965.73 0.88
3642.5 4105.39 1.88
4997.875 4245.04 3.91
4384.70 1.88
4524.36 0.73
 35757.39
18296.38
9384.86

7.67
3.81
1.90
0.83
 Demanda de plástico claro (000 lb)
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2005 2006 AÑO 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
00 lb)

2005 2006
METODO ADAPTATIVO (Promedio movil)

Demanda de plástico
AÑO TRIMESTRE Nivel (Lt)
PERIODO (t) oscuro (000 lb)
2002 I 1 2250
II 2 1737
III 3 2412
IV 4 7269 3417
2003 I 5 3514 3733
II 6 2143 3834.5
III 7 3459 4096.25
IV 8 7056 4043
2004 I 9 4120 4194.5
II 10 2766 4350.25
III 11 2556 4124.5
IV 12 8253 4423.75
2005 I 13 5491 4766.5
II 14 4382 5170.5
III 15 4315 5610.25
IV 16 12035 6555.75
2006 I 17 5648 6595
II 18 3696 6423.5
III 19 4843 6555.5
IV 20 13097 6821
2007 21
2008 22
2009 23

METODO SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONECIAL SIMPLE

Demanda de plástico Nivel (Lt) Pronostico (Ft)

PERIODO (t) oscuro (000 lb)
0 5052.1
1 2250 4785.23 5052.1
2 1737 4494.93 4785.2333333333
3 2412 4296.55 4494.9253968254
4 7269 4579.64 4296.5515495087
5 3514 4478.15 4579.6418781269
6 2143 4255.76 4478.1521754482
7 3459 4179.88 4255.7567301674
8 7056 4453.79 4179.8751368181
9 4120 4422.00 4453.7917904545
10 2766 4264.29 4422.0020961255
11 2556 4101.59 4264.2876107802
12 8253 4496.97 4101.5935526107
13 5491 4591.64 4496.9655952192
 14 4382 4571.67 4591.6355385316
15 4315 4547.23 4571.6702491477
16 12035 5260.35 4547.2254635146
17 5648 5297.27 5260.3468479417
18 3696 5144.76 5297.2661957568
19 4843 5116.03 5144.7646533038
20 13097 5876.12 5116.025162513

ALFA= 0.10

METODO DE SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL CON CORRECION POR TENDENCIA

Demanda de plástico Nivel (Lt) Tendencia Tt

PERIODO (t) claro (000 lb)
0 2592.75 226.86
1 2250 2765.36 216.52
2 1737 2863.32 193.94
3 2412 2995.81 182.23
4 7269 3567.66 256.45
5 3514 3794.57 250.82
6 2143 3864.21 216.31
7 3459 4021.33 205.04
8 7056 4495.85 256.37
9 4120 4692.01 244.90
10 2766 4730.16 205.52
11 2556 4709.04 162.35
12 8253 5193.44 223.69
13 5491 5424.17 225.03
14 4382 5528.52 202.05
15 4315 5595.75 176.37
16 12035 6368.58 289.98
17 5648 6562.31 271.65
18 3696 6535.11 214.72
19 4843 6568.23 180.13
20 13097 7352.99 295.30

INTERCEPTO 2592.75
PENDIENTE 226.86

Alfa= 0.1
Beta= 0.2
METODO SUAVIZAMIENTO CON CORRECION POR TENDENCIA Y ESTACIONALIDAD (Modelo Winter)

Demanda de plástico Nivel (Lt) Tendencia Tt

PERIODO (t) claro (000 lb)
0 2592.75 226.86
1 2250 2787.84 220.50
2 1737 2997.56 218.35
3 2412 3240.08 223.18
4 7269 3520.71 234.67
5 3514 3774.65 238.52
6 2143 3970.85 230.06
7 3459 4273.38 244.55
8 7056 4452.40 231.45
9 4120 4676.24 229.93
10 2766 4883.40 225.37
11 2556 4956.40 194.90
12 8253 5094.02 183.44
13 5491 5364.72 200.89
14 4382 5753.37 238.45
15 4315 6015.07 243.10
16 12035 6306.85 252.83
17 5648 6527.17 246.33
18 3696 6706.03 232.84
19 4843 6941.16 233.29
20 13097 7185.96 235.60
21
22
23

INTERCETPO 2592.7476102941
PENDIENTE 226.8558823529

ALFA= 0.10
BETA 0.20
GAMMA 0.10

Estimados de error para el producto plastico oscuro

Metodo de pronostico MAD MAPE(%)
Promedio movil de 4 periodos 2069.45 36.4
Suavizamiento exponencial simple 2252.43 51
Modelo de Holt 1993.76 43.40
Modelo de winter 492.24 10.80
 Error
Pronostico (Ft) Error (Et) Error absoluto (At) MADt Error %
cuadratico(MSEt)

3417 -97 97 9409 97 2.8

3733 1590 1590 5075018 843.5 74.2
3834.5 375.5 375.5 8035527.75 687.5 10.9
4096.25 -2959.75 2959.75 45754517.25 1255.5625 41.9
4043 -77 77 57222791.5625 1019.85 1.9
4194.5 1428.5 1428.5 80911023.375 1087.95833 51.6
4350.25 1794.25 1794.25 116931525.375 1188.85714 70.2
4124.5 -4128.5 4128.5 269992127 1556.3125 50.0
4423.75 -1067.25 1067.25 313992345.9375 1501.97222 19.4
4766.5 384.5 384.5 350358786.875 1390.225 8.8
5170.5 855.5 855.5 393445348.3125 1341.61364 19.8
5610.25 -6424.75 6424.75 924542058 1765.20833 53.4
6555.75 907.75 907.75 1012299360.3125 1699.25 16.1
6595 2899 2899 1207827355.875 1784.94643 78.4
6423.5 1580.5 1580.5 1331570442.1875 1771.31667 32.6
6555.5 -6541.5 6541.5 2105001361 2069.45313 49.9
6821.00
6655.25
6613.81

Error absoluto
Error (Et) (At) Error cuadratico MCEt MADt Error % MAPEt

2802.10 2802.10 7851764.41 2802.10 125 125

3048.23 3048.23 8571745.43 2925.17 175 150
2082.93 2082.93 7160689.69 2644.42 86 129
-2972.45 2972.45 7579379.72 2726.43 41 107
1065.64 1065.64 6290622.30 2394.27 30 92
2335.15 2335.15 6151007.86 2384.42 109 94
796.76 796.76 5362981.21 2157.61 23 84
-2876.12 2876.12 5726620.33 2247.42 41 79
333.79 333.79 5102708.85 2034.80 8 71
1656.00 1656.00 4866672.26 1996.92 60 70
1708.29 1708.29 4689542.65 1970.68 67 70
-4151.41 4151.41 5734928.72 2152.41 50 68
-994.03 994.03 5369788.39 2063.30 18 64
 209.64 209.64 4989371.15 1930.90 5 60
256.67 256.67 4661138.38 1819.28 6 56
-7487.77 7487.77 7873990.20 2173.56 62 57
-387.65 387.65 7419654.01 2068.51 7 54
1601.27 1601.27 7149898.42 2042.55 43 53
301.76 301.76 6778380.71 1950.93 6 51
-7980.97 7980.97 9624259.64 2252.43 61 51

Pronostico Ft Error cuadratico

Error Et Error absoluto medio MCEt MADt Error %

2981.88 731.88 731.88 535646.11 731.88 32.53

3057.26 1320.26 1320.26 1139364.62 1026.07 76.01
3178.04 766.04 766.04 955182.30 939.39 31.76
3824.10 -3444.90 3444.90 3683216.20 1565.77 47.39
4045.39 531.39 531.39 3003048.19 1358.89 15.12
4080.52 1937.52 1937.52 3128205.35 1455.33 90.41
4226.37 767.37 767.37 2765440.34 1357.05 22.18
4752.22 -2303.78 2303.78 3083184.17 1475.39 32.65
4936.91 816.91 816.91 2814757.18 1402.23 19.83
4935.67 2169.67 2169.67 3004029.77 1478.97 78.44
4871.39 2315.39 2315.39 3218301.11 1555.01 90.59
5417.14 -2835.86 2835.86 3620285.51 1661.75 34.36
5649.21 158.21 158.21 3343727.31 1546.09 2.88
5730.56 1348.56 1348.56 3234791.44 1531.98 30.78
5772.11 1457.11 1457.11 3160684.16 1526.99 33.77
6658.56 -5376.44 5376.44 4769774.45 1767.58 44.67
6833.96 1185.96 1185.96 4571934.92 1733.37 21.00
6749.83 3053.83 3053.83 4836042.49 1806.73 82.63
6748.36 1905.36 1905.36 4772586.83 1811.92 39.34
7648.29 -5448.71 5448.71 6018380.36 1993.76 41.60

0.153846154 0.09523810
0.3076923077 0.1904761905
delo Winter)

Factor Error
estacional Pronsotico Ft Error Et Error abs cuadratico MADt

0.90 2535.61 285.61 285.61 81573.4481 285.61

0.60 1801.63 64.63 64.63 42874.9209 175.12
0.70 2243.32 -168.68 168.68 38067.9545 172.97
1.80 6234.88 -1034.12 1034.12 295901.528 388.26
0.89 3342.51 -171.49 171.49 242603.196 344.91
0.60 2395.60 252.60 252.60 212803.884 329.52
0.70 2950.11 -508.89 508.89 219398.221 355.15
1.83 8253.02 1197.02 1197.02 371079.752 460.38
0.89 4188.05 68.05 68.05 330363.277 416.79
0.59 2900.57 134.57 134.57 299137.937 388.57
0.71 3642.42 1086.42 1086.42 379244.261 452.01
1.80 9285.36 1032.36 1032.36 436453.913 500.37
0.89 4711.92 -779.08 779.08 449570.042 521.81
0.59 3276.64 -1105.36 1105.36 504730.106 563.49
0.69 4153.80 -161.20 161.20 472813.813 536.67
1.78 11166.38 -868.62 868.62 490419.648 557.42
0.91 5942.47 294.47 294.47 466672.026 541.95
0.61 4104.88 408.88 408.88 450033.933 534.56
0.70 4827.08 -15.92 15.92 426361.28 507.26
1.80 12890.23 -206.77 206.77 407180.83 492.24
0.90 6693.12
0.60 4598.38
0.70 5492.28

Rango de ts
-4.7 a 2.7 -4.7 2.7
-3.84 a 5.06 -3.84 5.06
1 a 20 1.00 20.00
-3.6 a 4.5 -3.6 4.5
MAPEt TSt

2.8 -1.0
38.5 1.8
29.3 2.7
32.4 -0.9
26.3 -1.1
30.5 0.2
36.2 1.7
37.9 -1.3
35.9 -2.1
33.2 -2.0
32.0 -1.4
33.7 -4.7
32.4 -4.4
35.7 -2.5
35.5 -1.7
36.4 -4.6

TSt

1.00
2.00
3.00
1.82
2.52
3.51
4.24
2.80
3.25
4.14
5.06
2.71
2.34
 2.61
2.91
-1.01
-1.24
-0.48
-0.34
-3.84

MAPEt TSt

32.53 1.00
54.27 2.00
46.77 3.00
46.92 4.00
40.56 5.00
48.87 6.00
45.06 7.00
43.51 8.00
40.88 9.00
44.63 10.00
48.81 11.00
47.61 12.00
44.17 13.00
43.21 14.00
42.58 15.00
42.71 16.00
41.43 17.00
43.72 18.00
43.49 19.00
43.40 20.00
Error % MAPEt TSt

12.69 12.69 1.0

3.72 8.21 2.0
6.99 7.80 1.0
14.23 9.41 -2.2
4.88 8.50 -3.0
11.79 9.05 -2.3
14.71 9.86 -3.6
16.96 10.75 -0.2
1.65 9.74 0.0
4.87 9.25 0.3
42.50 12.27 2.7
12.51 12.29 4.5
14.19 12.44 2.8
25.22 13.35 0.6
3.74 12.71 0.4
7.22 12.37 -1.2
5.21 11.95 -0.7
11.06 11.90 0.1
0.33 11.29 0.0
1.58 10.80 -0.4
 enero 2.000 3
febrero 3.000 4
marzo 3.000 3
abril 3.000 5
mayo 4.000 5.00
junio 6.000
julio 7.000
agosto 6.000
septiembre 10.000
octubre 12.000
noviembre 14.000
diciembre 8.000
toatal 78.000

Error Error
Pronostico
Nivel (Lt) Error (Et) absoluto cuadratico(
año demanda (Ft) (At) MSEt)
1 78.000
2 89.000
3 98.000
4 115.000 88.3333333
5 113.000 100.666667 88.3333333 -24.666667
6 100.666667
MADt Error % MAPEt TSt
METODO ADAPTATIVO (Promedio movil)

Error
Demanda Pronostico absoluto
Nivel (Lt)
PERIODO (t) ($) (Ft) Error (Et) (At)
 0
1 108
2 116
3 118
4 124 116.5
5 96 113.5 116.50 20.50 20.50
6 119 114.25 113.50 -5.50 5.50
7 96 108.75 114.25 18.25 18.25
8 102 103.25 108.75 6.75 6.75
9 112 107.25 103.25 -8.75 8.75
10 102 103 107.25 5.25 5.25
11 92 102 103.00 11.00 11.00
12 91 99.25 102.00 11.00 11.00
99.25

0.10
METODO SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONECIAL
Demanda SIMPLE Error
de plástico Nivel (Lt) Pronostico absoluto
PERIODO (t) oscuro (000 (Ft) Error (Et) (At)
lb)
0 106.333333
1 108 106.50 106.333333 -1.67 1.67
2 116 107.45 106.5 -9.50 9.50
3 118 108.51 107.45 -10.55 10.55
4 124 110.05 108.505 -15.50 15.50
5 96 108.65 110.0545 14.05 14.05
6 119 109.68 108.64905 -10.35 10.35
7 96 108.32 109.684145 13.68 13.68
8 102 107.68 108.315731 6.32 6.32
9 112 108.12 107.684157 -4.32 4.32
10 102 107.50 108.115742 6.12 6.12
11 92 105.95 107.504168 15.50 15.50
12 91 104.46 105.953751 14.95 14.95
104.458376
 Error
cuadratico
MCEt MADt Error % MAPEt TSt
 420.25 20.50 21 21 1.00
901.00 52.00 5 36 0.41
2350.69 132.75 19 68 0.49
3316.50 204.00 7 102 0.39
4528.44 298.75 8 142 0.22
5599.50 390.00 5 183 0.20
7379.75 532.00 12 233 0.20
9402.00 696.00 12 291 0.20
290.75 134 0.39

Error
cuadratico
MCEt MADt Error % MAPEt TSt

2.78 1.67 2 2 -1.00

46.51 5.58 8 4 -3.08
68.11 7.24 9 5 -4.50
111.11 9.30 12 6 -6.26
128.39 10.25 15 7 -3.40
124.85 10.27 9 7 -4.54
133.76 10.76 14 8 -2.52
122.03 10.20 6 8 -1.66
110.54 9.55 4 8 -2.14
103.23 9.20 6 8 -1.39
115.70 9.78 17 9 0.45
124.69 10.21 16 9 2.16
8 -1.63
AÑO TRIMESTRE
PERIODO (t)
1I 1
II 2
III 3
IV 4
2I 5
II 6
III 7
 IV 8
3I 9
II 10
III 11
IV 12
4I 13
II 14
III 15
IV 16
0.1 5 I 17

METODO SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONECIAL SIMPLE

Demanda
de plástico Nivel (Lt) Pronostico
PERIODO (t) claro (000 (Ft) Error (Et)
lb)
0 124.75
1 98 122.08 124.75 26.75
2 106 120.47 122.075 16.08
3 109 119.32 120.4675 11.47
4 133 120.69 119.32075 -13.68
5 130 121.62 120.688675 -9.31
6 116 121.06 121.619808 5.62
7 133 122.25 121.057827 -11.94
8 116 121.63 122.252044 6.25
9 138 123.26 121.62684 -16.37
10 130 123.94 123.264156 -6.74
11 147 126.24 123.93774 -23.06
12 141 127.72 126.243966 -14.76

metodo estatico

Demanda
AÑO TRIMESTRE
PERIODO (t) (000 $) Demanda desestacionalizada 1

1I 1 98
II 2 106
III 3 109 115.5
 IV 4 133 120.75
2I 5 130 125
II 6 116 125.875
III 7 133 124.75
IV 8 116 127.5
3I 9 138 131
II 10 130 135.875
III 11 147 139.75
IV 12 141 142
4I 13 144 145.75
II 14 142 152
III 15 165 138
IV 16 173 102.25
5 17

intercepto 102 s(1,5,9,13)

pendiente 3 s(2,6,10,14)
s(3,7,11.15)
s(4,8,12,16)

METODO DE SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL CON CORRECION POR TENDENCIA

Demanda
de plástico Nivel (Lt) Tendencia Tt
PERIODO (t) claro (000
lb)
0 102.273 3.4580
1 98 104.892526 3.3742176847
2 106 108.580349 3.4055781933
3 109 111.325642 3.3395496157
4 133 116.121644 3.4851948922
5 130 120.653262 3.5898371589
6 116 123.97843 3.5633703116
7 133 127.715297 3.5807199234
8 116 129.311767 3.3822949759
 9 138 133.125257 3.4254144962
10 130 136.549022 3.4252494624
11 147 140.24788 3.4526103756
12 141 143.067521 3.3893134613
13

alfa 0.1

Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente d 0.81188097
Coeficiente 0.65915072
R^2 ajustado 0.62506579
Error típico 9.40344752
Observacione 12

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Regresión 1 1710.00175 1710.00175 19.338480397
Residuos 10 884.248252 88.4248252
Total 11 2594.25

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad

Intercepción 102.272727 5.78742188 17.6715521 7.17134227370443E-09
Variable X 1 3.45804196 0.78635579 4.39755391 0.0013401721
Demanda de plástico oscuro (000 lb) Nivel (Lt) Pronostico (Ft)

98
106
109
133 111.5
130 119.5 111.5
116 122 119.5
133 128 122
 116 123.75 128
138 125.75 123.75
130 129.25 125.75
147 132.75 129.25
141 139 132.75
144 140.5 139
142 143.5 140.5
165 148 143.5
173 156 148
156

Error absoluto (At) Error cuadratico MCEt MADt

26.75 2500.56 26.75

16.08 1379.48 21.41
11.47 963.49 18.10
13.68 769.40 16.99
9.31 632.86 15.46
5.62 532.65 13.82
11.94 476.93 13.55
6.25 422.20 12.64
16.37 405.07 13.05
6.74 369.10 12.42
23.06 383.90 13.39
14.76 370.05 13.50

Demanda desestacionalizada 2 (Dt) Factor estacional(St) DEMANDA FUTURA

105.73 0.93
109.19 0.97
112.65 0.97
 116.10 1.15
119.56 1.09
123.02 0.94
126.48 1.05
129.94 0.89
133.40 1.03
136.85 0.95
140.31 1.05
143.77 0.98
147.23 0.98
150.69 0.94
154.14 1.07
157.60 1.10
161.06 162.14

1.01 3.293
0.95
1.03
1.03

Factor estacional Pronsotico Ft Error Et

1.01 106.44 8.44

0.95 103.02 - 2.98
1.03 115.83 6.83
1.03 118.01 - 14.99
1.00 119.54 - 10.46
0.95 118.52 2.52
1.03 131.22 - 1.78
1.04 136.65 20.65
 1.01 133.66 - 4.34
0.95 130.02 0.02
1.03 144.18 - 2.82
1.03 147.50 6.50
1.01 147.95

Valor crítico de F
0.0013401721

Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%

89.37754774 115.1679068054 89.37754774
1.7059320817 5.2101518344 1.7059320817
 Error
Error (Et) Error absoluto (At) cuadratico( MADt Error % MAPEt
MSEt)

-18.5 18.5 106797 342.5 14.2 26793.1

3.5 3.5 298859 295.5 3.0 50791.7
-11 11 595522.5 280.333333 8.3 83512.9
 12 12 975222.25 279.1875 10.3 123604.9
-14.25 14.25 1470898.75 273.25 10.3 172443.8
-4.25 4.25 2061698.63 270.208333 3.3 229618.8
-17.75 17.75 2799080.38 269.035714 12.1 296794.0
-8.25 8.25 3654090 269.375 5.9 373893.9
-5 5 4649251.5 270.5 3.5 461503.8
-1.5 1.5 5770822.5 271.85 1.1 559630.8
-21.5 21.5 7119923.25 273.636364 13.0 670578.7
-25 25 8688717 276.166667 14.5 795718.7

Error % MAPEt TSt

27 -6 6.72
15 -5 9.15
11 -4 11.45
10 -3 11.39
7 -2 11.92
5 -2 13.75
9 -1 13.14
5 -1 14.58
12 0 12.86
5 0 12.97
16 0 10.31
10 1 9.13
Error abs Error cuadratico MADt Error % MAPEt TSt

8.43854002 71.21 8.44 8.61075512 8.61075512 1

2.98395916 40.06 5.71 2.81505581 5.71290547 0.9550590932
6.82947933 42.25 6.08 6.26557736 5.89712943 2.019078673
14.9894482 87.86 8.31 11.2702618 7.24041253 -0.325544152
10.4585094 92.16 8.74 8.04500726 7.40133147 -1.5061689575
2.52487239 77.87 7.70 2.17661413 6.53054525 -1.3809500218
1.78492897 67.20 6.86 1.34205186 5.78933191 -1.8114591479
20.6519216 112.11 8.58 17.8033806 7.291088 0.9586680702
 4.34323546 101.75 8.11 3.14727208 6.83066401 0.478907459
0.01571357 91.57 7.30 0.01208736 6.14880634 0.534156826
2.81833371 83.97 6.89 1.91723381 5.76411793 0.1569540771
6.49691563 80.49 6.86 4.60774158 5.66775324 1.1046017309

- 8.44
54.49

Superior 95.0%
115.167907
5.21015183
TSt

2.6
4.3
5.8
 7.2
8.7
10.2
11.7
13.2
14.7
16.2
17.7
19.2
METODO SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONECIAL SIMPLE

Error Error
Pronostico absoluto cuadratico
Demanda Nivel (Lt)
PERIODO (t) (Ft) Error (Et) (At) MCEt
0 106.333333
1 108 107.83 106.333333 -1.67 1.67 7078.81
2 116 115.18 107.833333 -8.17 8.17 3536.63
3 118 117.72 115.183333 -2.82 2.82 2313.29
4 124 123.37 117.718333 -6.28 6.28 1731.00
5 96 98.74 123.371833 27.37 27.37 1369.02
6 119 116.97 98.7371833 -20.26 20.26 891.11
7 96 98.10 116.973718 20.97 20.97 646.50
8 102 101.61 98.0973718 -3.90 3.90 455.71
9 112 110.96 101.609737 -10.39 10.39 401.69
10 102 102.90 110.960974 8.96 8.96 339.93
11 92 93.09 102.896097 10.90 10.90 294.43
12 91 91.21 93.0896097 2.09 2.09 250.10
13 91.208961

METODO SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONECIAL SIMPLE

Demanda Error Error

de plástico Pronostico absoluto cuadratico
Nivel (Lt)
PERIODO (t) oscuro (000 (Ft) Error (Et) (At) MCEt
lb)
0 106.333333
1 108 106.5 106.333333 -1.6666667 1.66666667 2.77777778
2 116 107.45 106.5 -9.5 9.5 46.5138889
3 118 108.505 107.45 -10.55 10.55 68.1100926
4 124 110.0545 108.505 -15.495 15.495 111.106326
5 96 108.64905 110.0545 14.0545 14.0545 128.390855
6 119 109.684145 108.64905 -10.35095 10.35095 124.849406
7 96 108.315731 109.684145 13.684145 13.684145 133.764609
8 102 107.684157 108.315731 6.3157305 6.3157305 122.030089
9 112 108.115742 107.684157 -4.3158425 4.31584255 110.540801
10 102 107.504168 108.115742 6.11574171 6.11574171 103.226951
11 92 105.953751 107.504168 15.5041675 15.5041675 115.695338
12 91 104.458376 105.953751 14.9537508 14.9537508 124.688615
13 104.458376
alfa 0.1
cuando se utiliza el alfa
alfa 0.9 0.90 se ve que el
pronostico es menor el
alfa 0.100
MADt Error % MAPEt TSt

1.67 2 2 -1.00
4.92 7 4 -2.00
4.22 2 4 -3.00
4.73 5 4 -4.00
9.26 29 9 0.91
11.09 17 10 -1.07
12.51 22 12 0.73
11.43 4 11 0.46
11.31 9 11 -0.45
11.08 9 11 0.34
11.06 12 11 1.33
10.31 2 10 1.63
10

MADt Error % MAPEt TSt

1.7 1.54320988 1.54320988 -1.6666667

5.6 8.18965517 4.86643252 -11.166667
7.2 8.94067797 6.22451434 -21.716667
9.3 12.4959677 7.79237769 -37.211667
10.3 14.6401042 9.16192298 -23.157167
10.3 8.69827731 9.08464871 -33.508117
10.8 14.2543177 9.82317285 -19.823972
10.2 6.19189265 9.36926282 -13.508241
9.5 3.85343085 8.7563926 -17.824084
9.2 5.9958252 8.48033586 -11.708342
9.8 16.852356 9.2414286 3.79582552
10.2 16.4326932 9.84070065 18.7495763
METODO SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONECIAL SIMPLE
mes nivel pronostico(ft)
0 1.659
1 1.000 1.46124167 1.659
2 1.113 1.35676917 1.461
3 1.271 1.33103842 1.357
4 1.445 1.36522689 1.331
5 1.558 1.42305882 1.365
6 1.648 1.49054118 1.423
7 1.724 1.56057882 1.491
8 1.85 1.64740518 1.561
9 1.864 1.71238362 1.647
10 2.076 1.82146854 1.712
11 2.167 1.92512798 1.821
12 2.191 2.00488958 1.925

alfa 0.3

METODO DE SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL CON CORRECION POR TENDENCIA

mes demanda nivel

0 0.9482575758
1 1.000 1.0573017949
2 1.113 1.166337142
3 1.271 1.2755906438
4 1.445 1.3851655828
5 1.558 1.4947875643
6 1.648 1.6043430421
7 1.724 1.713752571
8 1.85 1.823250176
9 1.864 1.9322836678
10 2.076 2.0417978504
11 2.167 2.1512365631
12 2.191 2.260255964

alfa 0.005
beta 0.1

Resumen
 Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de corr 0.9920766071
Coeficiente de det 0.9842159944
R^2 ajustado 0.9826375939
Error típico 0.0523575579
Observaciones 12

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados
Regresión 1 1.70935378 1.709353778
Residuos 10 0.02741314 0.0027413139
Total 11 1.73676692

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t

Intercepción 0.9482575758 0.03222385 29.4271974157
Variable X 1 0.1093321678 0.00437836 24.9710380494
error(et) error absoluto(AT) error cuadratico(MCEt) MADt

0.659 0.659 0.4341711736 0.6589166667

0.348 0.348 0.277721716 0.5035791667
0.086 0.086 0.1875999273 0.3643091667
-0.114 0.114 0.1439467561 0.3017222708
-0.193 0.193 0.1225896991 0.2799324383
-0.225 0.225 0.1105911714 0.2707672279
-0.233 0.233 0.1025785786 0.2654374558
-0.289 0.289 0.1002268335 0.2684354208
-0.217 0.217 0.0943031095 0.2626753545
-0.364 0.364 0.0980944854 0.2727694566
-0.346 0.346 0.1000306224 0.2793841845
-0.266 0.266 0.0975853983 0.2782581712

tendencia pronostico(ft) error(et) error absoluto(AT)

0.1093321678
0.109303373 1.1666051678 0.167 0.1666051678
0.1092765704 1.2756137124 0.163 0.1626137124
0.1092742635 1.3848649073 0.114 0.1138649073
0.1093043311 1.4944699139 0.049 0.0494699139
0.1093360961 1.6041236604 0.046 0.0461236604
0.1093580343 1.7137010764 0.066 0.0657010764
0.1093631837 1.8231157547 0.099 0.0991157547
0.1093766259 1.9326268018 0.083 0.0826268018
0.1093423125 2.0416259803 0.178 0.1776259803
0.1093594995 2.1511573499 0.075 0.0751573499
0.1093674208 2.2606039839 0.094 0.0936039839
0.1093326188 2.3695885828 0.179 0.1785885828
 F Valor crítico de F
623.552741265 2.42696044891851E-10

Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%

4.794633985246E-11 0.8764583651 1.0200567864 0.8764583651
2.426960448919E-10 0.0995765762 0.1190877595 0.0995765762
error % MAPEt TSt

65.8916666667 65.8916666667 1
31.2885594489 48.5901130578 2
6.7481641752 34.6427967636 3
7.8866147636 27.9537512636 3.2445928302
12.3731135002 24.8376237109 2.8085091282
13.6493431938 22.9729102914 2.072819657
13.5416950744 21.6255938318 1.2349154283
15.6443879005 20.8779430904 0.1429454918
11.6198939544 19.8492709642 -0.6784922416
17.515239707 19.6158678385 -1.9864378257
15.9451529037 19.2821664808 -3.1761677251
12.1347341121 18.6865471167 -4.1445074166

error cuadratico(MCEt) MADt error % MAPEt TSt

0.0277572819 0.1666051678 16.6605167832 16.6605168 1

0.0271002507 0.1646094401 14.6103964393 15.6354566 2
0.0223885728 0.1476945958 8.9586866505 13.4098666 3
0.0174032477 0.1231384253 3.4235234504 10.9132808 4
0.0143480766 0.1077354724 2.9604403336 9.32271273 5
0.0126761691 0.1007297397 3.9867157995 8.43337991 6
0.0122687067 0.1004991704 5.7491737085 8.04992188 7
0.0115885169 0.0982651243 4.4663136122 7.60197085 8
0.0138065694 0.1070829972 9.5292907875 7.81611751 9
0.0129907752 0.1038904325 3.6202962356 7.39653538 10
0.0126063143 0.1029553008 4.3195193308 7.11680665 11
0.0142136116 0.1092580743 8.1510078862 7.20299008 12
Superior 95.0%
1.0200567864
0.1190877595
mes DEMANDA nivel tendencia pronostico(ft)error(et) error absolut
0 0.94825758 0.10933217
1 1.000
2 1.113
3 1.271
4 1.445
5 1.558
6 1.648
7 1.724
8 1.85
9 1.864
10 2.076
11 2.167
12 2.191

alfa 0.05
beta 0.1
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente d 0.99207661
Coeficiente 0.98421599
R^2 ajustado 0.98263759
Error típico 0.05235756
Observacione 12

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 1.70935378 1.70935378 623.552741 2.427E-10
Residuos 10 0.02741314 0.00274131
Total 11 1.73676692

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%

Intercepción 0.94825758 0.03222385 29.4271974 4.7946E-11 0.87645837 1.02005679
Variable X 1 0.10933217 0.00437836 24.971038 2.427E-10 0.09957658 0.11908776
error cuadratMADt error % MAPEt TSt

Inferior 95.0%
Superior 95.0%
0.87645837 1.02005679
0.09957658 0.11908776
METODO ADAPTATIVO (Promedio movil)

Demanda de plástico
AÑO TRIMESTRE Nivel (Lt)
PERIODO (t) claro (000 lb)
2002 I 1 3200
II 2 7658
III 3 4420
IV 4 2384 4415.5
2003 I 5 3654 4529
II 6 8680 4784.5
III 7 5695 5103.25
IV 8 1953 4995.5
2004 I 9 4742 5267.5
II 10 13673 6515.75
III 11 6640 6752
IV 12 2737 6948
2005 I 13 3486 6634
II 14 13186 6512.25
III 15 5448 6214.25
IV 16 3485 6401.25
2006 I 17 7728 7461.75
II 18 16591 8313
III 19 8236 9010
IV 20 3316 8967.75
2007 21
2008 22
2009 23

METODO SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONECIAL SIMPLE

Demanda de plástico Nivel (Lt) Pronostico (Ft)

PERIODO (t) claro (000 lb)
0 6345.6
1 3200 6046.02 6345.6
2 7658 6199.54 6046.0190476191
3 4420 6030.06 6199.5410430839
4 2384 5682.82 6030.0609437426
5 3654 5489.60 5682.8170443385
6 8680 5793.44 5489.5963734491
7 5695 5784.07 5793.4443378826
8 1953 5419.21 5784.0686866557
9 4742 5354.71 5419.2050022123
10 13673 6146.93 5354.7092877159
 11 6640 6193.89 6146.9274507905
12 2737 5864.66 6193.8867411914
13 3486 5638.12 5864.6594325065
14 13186 6356.97 5638.1204389345
15 5448 6270.40 6356.9661114169
16 3485 6005.12 6270.3979103296
17 7728 6169.21 6005.1219188696
18 16591 7161.76 6169.205545644
19 8236 7264.07 7161.7573984398
20 3316 6888.06 7264.066217636

ALFA= 0.10

METODO DE SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL CON CORRECION POR TENDENCIA

Demanda de plástico Nivel (Lt) Tendencia Tt

PERIODO (t) claro (000 lb)
0 1731.22 139.66
1 3200 1997.46 163.77
2 7658 2684.73 263.48
3 4420 3088.38 290.18
4 2384 3283.84 272.14
5 3654 3565.32 273.92
6 8680 4300.26 361.73
7 5695 4760.38 380.47
8 1953 4837.24 322.64
9 4742 5120.09 315.06
10 13673 6219.70 464.50
11 6640 6680.00 463.70
12 2737 6724.01 383.76
13 3486 6762.84 318.06
14 13186 7662.33 428.81
15 5448 7839.41 380.86
16 3485 7769.30 294.96
17 7728 8032.23 288.86
18 16591 9108.70 438.88
19 8236 9422.67 415.09
20 3316 9216.64 296.78

INTERCEPTO 1731.22
 PENDIENTE 139.66

Alfa= 0.1
Beta= 0.2

METODO SUAVIZAMIENTO CON CORRECION POR TENDENCIA Y ESTACIONALIDAD (Modelo Winter)

Demanda de plástico Nivel (Lt) Tendencia Tt

PERIODO (t) claro (000 lb)
0 1731.22 139.66
1 3200 1725.53 110.59
2 7658 1853.56 114.08
3 4420 2003.69 121.29
4 2384 2200.28 136.35
5 3654 2154.54 99.93
6 8680 2255.00 100.03
7 5695 2414.72 111.97
8 1953 2502.75 107.18
9 4742 2421.38 69.47
10 13673 2597.65 90.83
11 6640 2756.33 104.40
12 2737 2897.98 111.85
13 3486 2766.11 63.11
14 13186 2877.27 72.72
15 5448 2925.24 67.77
16 3485 3100.69 89.30
17 7728 3008.87 53.08
18 16591 3166.03 73.89
19 8236 3327.63 91.44
20 3316 3452.66 98.16
21
22
23

INTERCETPO 1731.2207720588
PENDIENTE 139.6568014706

ALFA= 0.10
BETA 0.20
GAMMA 0.10
 Estimados de error para el pronostico de plastico claro
Metodo de pronostico MAD MAPE(%)
Promedio movil de 4 periodos 3237.875 59.6
Suavizamiento exponencial simple 3153.26 63
Modelo de Holt 2997.98 60.28
Modelo de winter 4003.93 88.36
 Error
Pronostico (Ft) Error (Et) Error absoluto (At) MADt Error %
cuadratico(MSEt)

4415.5 761.5 761.5 579882.25 761.5 20.8

4529 -4151 4151 35621366.5 2456.25 47.8
4784.5 -910.5 910.5 55919080.5 1941 16.0
5103.25 3150.25 3150.25 114255074.25 2243.3125 161.3
4995.5 253.5 253.5 143140154.0625 1845.35 5.3
5267.5 -8405.5 8405.5 595682766.375 2938.70833 61.5
6515.75 -124.25 124.25 695071293.875 2536.64286 1.9
6752 4015 4015 923328993 2721.4375 146.7
6948 3462 3462 1146614113.125 2803.72222 99.3
6634 -6552 6552 1703302721.25 3178.55 49.7
6512.25 1064.25 1064.25 1886091902.0625 2986.34091 19.5
6214.25 2729.25 2729.25 2146940469 2964.91667 78.3
6401.25 -1326.75 1326.75 2348735627.0625 2838.90385 17.2
7461.75 -9129.25 9129.25 3696212476.25 3288.21429 55.0
8313 77 77 3960316588.125 3074.13333 0.9
9010 5694 5694 4743083870 3237.875 171.7
8967.75
8814.63
8776.34

Error absoluto
Error (Et) (At) Error cuadratico MCEt MADt Error % MAPEt

3145.60 3145.60 9894799.36 3145.60 98 98

-1611.98 1611.98 6246640.98 2378.79 21 60
1779.54 1779.54 5220016.09 2179.04 40 53
3646.06 3646.06 7238452.17 2545.80 153 78
2028.82 2028.82 6613981.46 2442.40 56 74
-3190.40 3190.40 7208097.10 2567.07 37 67
98.44 98.44 6179753.41 2214.41 2 58
3831.07 3831.07 7241920.14 2416.49 196 75
677.21 677.21 6488218.64 2223.24 14 69
-8318.29 8318.29 12758792.81 2832.74 61 68
 -493.07 493.07 11621004.43 2620.04 7 62
3456.89 3456.89 11648426.22 2689.78 126 68
2378.66 2378.66 11187625.79 2665.85 68 68
-7547.88 7547.88 14457830.08 3014.57 57 67
908.97 908.97 13549056.04 2874.19 17 64
2785.40 2785.40 13187142.63 2868.64 80 65
-1722.88 1722.88 12586034.76 2801.24 22 62
-10421.79 10421.79 17920910.59 3224.61 63 62
-1074.24 1074.24 17038441.46 3111.43 13 60
3948.07 3948.07 16965880.73 3153.26 119 63

Pronostico Ft Error cuadratico

Error Et Error absoluto medio MCEt MADt Error %

2161.23 -1038.77 1038.77 1079046.17 1038.77 32.46

2948.21 -4709.79 4709.79 11630569.34 2874.28 61.50
3378.56 -1041.44 1041.44 8115241.91 2263.33 23.56
3555.98 1171.98 1171.98 6429818.10 1990.49 49.16
3839.24 185.24 185.24 5150717.00 1629.44 5.07
4661.99 -4018.01 4018.01 6982993.27 2027.54 46.29
5140.85 -554.15 554.15 6029292.23 1817.05 9.73
5159.88 3206.88 3206.88 6561143.89 1990.78 164.20
5435.15 693.15 693.15 5885511.52 1846.60 14.62
6684.21 -6988.79 6988.79 10181285.82 2360.82 51.11
7143.69 503.69 503.69 9278778.71 2191.99 7.59
7107.77 4370.77 4370.77 10097514.63 2373.56 159.69
7080.90 3594.90 3594.90 10314880.56 2467.50 103.12
8091.14 -5094.86 5094.86 11432216.22 2655.17 38.64
8220.27 2772.27 2772.27 11182435.32 2662.98 50.89
8064.25 4579.25 4579.25 11794131.45 2782.75 131.40
8321.09 593.09 593.09 11121050.51 2653.94 7.67
9547.58 -7043.42 7043.42 13259311.89 2897.80 42.45
9837.76 1601.76 1601.76 12696486.09 2829.59 19.45
9513.42 6197.42 6197.42 13982059.61 2997.98 186.89
 0.153846154 0.09523810
0.3076923077 0.1904761905
delo Winter)

Factor Error
estacional Pronsotico Ft Error Et Error abs cuadratico MADt

7.67 14343.38 11143.38 11143.38 124174811 11143.38

3.81 6993.46 -664.54 664.54 62308211.3 5903.96
1.90 3735.55 -684.45 684.45 41694966 4164.12
0.83 1760.24 -623.76 623.76 31368495.1 3279.03
7.09 16556.04 12902.04 12902.04 58387342 5203.64
3.84 8659.63 -20.37 20.37 48656187.5 4339.76
1.93 4543.41 -1151.59 1151.59 41894755.9 3884.31
0.85 2157.47 204.47 204.47 36663137.2 3424.33
6.55 17085.91 12343.91 12343.91 49519698.7 4415.39
3.84 9569.63 -4103.37 4103.37 46251496 4384.19
1.97 5302.12 -1337.88 1337.88 42209535.1 4107.25
0.85 2421.65 -315.35 315.35 38700360.9 3791.26
6.09 18322.90 14836.90 14836.90 52656774.1 4640.93
3.98 11271.85 -1914.15 1914.15 49157289.3 4446.16
2.02 5946.70 498.70 498.70 45896716.5 4182.99
0.86 2562.94 -922.06 922.06 43081308.4 3979.18
5.60 17879.73 10151.73 10151.73 46609327.4 4342.27
4.04 12382.41 -4208.59 4208.59 45003933 4334.85
2.00 6481.45 -1754.55 1754.55 42797327.6 4199.04
0.88 3019.28 -296.72 296.72 40661863.4 4003.93
5.30 18823.90
4.16 15192.85
2.05 7673.94
Rango de ts
-4.9 a 1
-3.1 a 4.68
1 a 20
1 a 11.6
MAPEt TSt

20.8 1.0
34.3 -1.4
28.2 -2.2
61.5 -0.5
50.3 -0.5
52.1 -3.2
44.9 -3.7
57.7 -2.0
62.3 -0.7
61.0 -2.7
57.3 -2.5
59.0 -1.6
55.8 -2.1
55.7 -4.6
52.1 -4.9
59.6 -2.9

TSt

1.00
0.64
1.52
2.73
3.68
2.26
2.66
4.03
4.68
0.74
 0.61
1.88
2.79
-0.04
0.27
1.25
0.66
-2.66
-3.10
-1.81

MAPEt TSt

32.46 1
46.98 2
39.18 3
41.67 4
34.35 5
36.34 6
32.54 7
49.00 8
45.18 9
45.77 10
42.30 11
52.08 12
56.01 13
54.77 14
54.51 15
59.31 16
56.28 17
55.51 18
53.61 19
60.28 20
Error % MAPEt TSt

348.23 348.23 1.0

8.68 178.45 1.8
15.49 124.13 2.4
26.16 99.64 2.8
353.09 150.33 4.2
0.23 125.31 5.1
20.22 110.30 5.4
10.47 97.82 6.2
260.31 115.88 7.6
30.01 107.29 6.7
20.15 99.37 6.8
11.52 92.05 7.3
425.61 117.71 9.2
14.52 110.34 9.1
9.15 103.59 9.8
26.46 98.77 10.1
131.36 100.69 11.6
25.37 96.50 10.6
21.30 92.54 10.6
8.95 88.36 11.0