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The NallikariNieminen [1] method for estimating the ship price is based on regression
analysis that is carried out from statistical data of built ships. Most of the cost estimation
methods are based on ship type and will not give a feasible solution for multipurpose ship like
Valerian Albanov. However this method is not dependent on the ship type which makes it
really useful for estimating the price of special purpose ship like. The method includes 10
different regression formulas from which three have been recognized to produce most
accurate results. The selected formulas are OKA4, OKA6 and OKA10. To exchange the value
from Finnish markka FIM to euros EUR we use the correction factor that takes also into
account the inflation. The factor for year 1990 FIM to 2014 EUR is c = 0,2547 [2].
Table 7.1. Cost estimations according to NallikariNieminen.
Number of crew N_crew 50
number of shafts n 2
Volume of machinery V_machinery
area [m^3] 6920.56
FIM to EUR correaltion c 0.2547
The second method used for calculating the building price of the ship is the Levander method
[3]. The prices estimates used in this method were in Norwegian krones (NOK) but they were
exchanged to euros with the ratio of 0.118092 [4]. The inflation rate was also taken into
account from year 2007 to 2014 with the average rate of 1,1% [5] to obtain the net present
value (NPV).
Table 7.2 Price estimation according to Levander [3].
Coeff EUR / Material Labour
Cost group Unit Value unit Coeff h / unit MEUR 1000h
General LWT 13824 507.15 10 7.01 138.24
Payload related Weight 500 3000.00 10 1.50 5
Hull structure Hull WT 6849 1521.46 60 10.42 410.94
Deckhouse Dh WT 1866 1521.46 100 2.84 186.6
Interior outfitting Area 6600 2535.77 20 16.74 132
Machinery P 26680 240.00 4 6.40 106.72
Ship Outfitting Gross Vol 50148.1 25.36 0.4 1.27 20.06
Total LWT 13824 4938.55 46.18 999.56
Reserve % 5 5 2.31 49.98
MATERIAL &
LABOUR LWT 13824 5185.47 75.92 48.49 1049.54
PRICE
ESTIMATION
Price
h / LWT Hours EUR / h Price MEUR EUR / kg
Building time
financing (Interest
x Time / 2) 6 % months 18 4
Total Production
Cost 171.21
Financing,
Payment 3% 5.14
Building Price 186.62
Räisänen [11] has shown for different ship types typical work hours per light weight ton ratios.
Normal tanker work hours per ton ratio is something between 3060, roro ships ratio is 6080
and passenger ships 80120. Our ship is prototype and quite complex multipurpose supply
vessel so our ratio should be somewhat similar to passenger ships. In levander estimation we
have that our work hours per ton ratio is 76. It’s rather small but our final price estimation is in
line with NallikariNieminen method. That’s why our estimation is okay in this phase.
7.3 Cost estimation by NSFI
Estimation price for two Azipod VI2300 units with 13 MW Power and electricity systems is 16
M€. Price estimation is based on reference ships from ABB Marine.
Estimation price for engines can be done with price per power estimation. Medium speed
diesel engine price per power estimation is 240€ /kW [6]. Valerian Albanov’s machinery power
is 26,68 MW so price for 6 engines is approximately 6,5 M€.
The cost of a working hour is estimated to be approximately 60 € / h. This naturally depends
on the shipyard where the ship will be built.
The NSFI cost divisioning is mainly based on values from Levander cost estimation. Some
changes are made. For example the machinery main components cost unit value is increased
to take into account the cost from the Azipods.
Table 7.3 Cost division according to NSFI system.
Materials Labour
Unit Price Price Price Total
NSFI Group Unit value [€/unit] [M€] h / unit hours € / h [M€] M€
1 General Cost LWT [ton] 13824 507 7.01 10 138240 60 8.29 15.30
2 Hull Mass [ton] 6849 1521 10.42 60 410940 60 24.66 35.07
3 Equipment for
cargo Mass [ton] 500 3000 1.50 10 5000 60 0.30 1.80
4 Ship Gross Volume
equipment [m^3] 50148 65 3.26 0.4 20059 60 1.20 4.46
5 Equipment for
crew and Interior area
passengers [m^2] 6600 2535 16.73 20 132000 60 7.92 24.65
6 Machinery
main Total power
components [kW] 26680 855 22.81 4 106720 60 6.40 29.21
7 Systems for Engine room
machinery volume [m^3] 6920 500 3.46 15 103800 60 6.23 9.69
8 Ship common Gross Volume
systems [m^3] 50148 20 1.00 1 50148 60 3.01 4.01
TOTAL 66.19 58.01 108.90
Price M€
Construction
costs 108.90
Design costs 12.27
Interest of capital
6% 4.00
Shipyard Profit
5% 6.26
Total price 131.43
Other big components are estimated with NallikariNieminen method [1]:
Crane with 25 ton capability = 7,7 MFIM = 1,96 M€
Two bow thrusters = 1,36 MFIM = 0,346 M€
Two hatch covers = 111 000 FIM = 28 271€
These are taken into account in unit values for the equipment for cargo handling and
machinery main components.
The total price is however slightly smaller than the value from the Levander method. This is
probably due to the fact that the shipyard overhead costs are not divided in NSFI system to
ship construction costs.
7.4 Comparison of used methods and data from existing ships
Table 7.4 Comparison of different methods and similar ships
Method Price estimation
NallikariNieminen OKA_4 167,95 M€
Levander 186,62 M€
NSFI 131,43 M€
Vitus Bering 80 M€ [7]
Diefenbaker 919 M€ [8]
Havila Subsea 105 M€ [9]
One of our main reference ships is Vitus Bering. Vitus Bering is quite similar to Valerian
Albanov but it is smaller so our price is definitely more than 80 M€. Arctech Shipyard has built
or is building many ships same size as Vitus Bering and all of those have a price range of 80
M€ 120 M€ [7]. Havila Subsea is in the same size category than Vitus Bering but it has more
equipment for multipurpose use and that is why the price is bigger. The recently ordered by
new three ships which will be built in Arctech are having also a moonpool like Valerian
Albanov and those price is similar to Havila Subsea, 105 M€. Diefenbaker is just little bit
bigger ship but its price is bigger than it would never been if build in for example in Finland
[10]. Comparison to Diefenbaker is a bit misleading.
Estimation methods used are also giving bigger results than the price of reference ships Vitus
Bering and Havila Subsea. That’s is in line that Valerian Albanov is bigger than those two and
a little more complex with higher ice class. Problem is that all of estimation methods are giving
very different results. NSFI does not take into account shipyard overhead costs and is that’s
why too low. NallikariNieminen OKA_4 and Levander method are quite similars.
NallikariNieminen might be still too low because reference data is also collected from
cheaper ships and It’s quite straightforward method. We decided that Levander method is
giving quite accurate results which is in line with prices of reference ships. Levander method
is also taking into account different thing more precisely.
According to price estimations done and existing data from existing ships our price estimation
is 187 M€. If the target is to build the ship in two years we should adjust the price according to
prices of 2016. This done by adding two year inflation to the total price with the assumed
same rate as earlier 1,1%. By doing so the final selling price is set to 190.8 M€.
7.5 Operation cost
Operating cost of Valerian Albanov for daily operation is estimated with fuel cost and salaries
of the crew. Price of the HFO is 360 €/ton [12]. Fuel consumption when driving with 75%
power is 0,191 kg/kWh (according to calculations made in General Arrangement and the daily
consumption 102,9 ton/day . Operating one hour with 75% power is then 1 544,4€ and if
Valerian Albanov is breaking ice the whole day, price of the fuel is 37 065,6€. There are 50
crew members and average salary is estimated to be 50€ /hour. In excursion to the Finnish
icebreaker Kontio, we have heard that there are two 6 hours shift per day per person. Taking
that into account, salaries for the one day operation is 30 000€. Approximated maximum daily
cost is then 67 065,6€.
In operating cost approximation isn’t taken into account that there are also other cost like
waste and water treatment, insurance, ship and engine maintenance and food and
consumables for the crew. Also port and fairway dues are possible but Valerian Albanov has
own harbour. Operating one day all the time with 75% power is quite much and usually there
are also DP conditions when fuel consumption isn’t that much.
References:
[1] Nallikari, M. & Nieminen, J. Tutkimus laivan omakustannusarvoon vaikuttavista
laivatekinisistä tekijöistä. Laivalaboratorio, TKK, 1990.
[2] Suomen Tilastokeskus. Verkkolinkki:
http://www.stat.fi/til/khi/2013/khi_2013_20140115_tau_001.html [Viitattu 12.11.2014]
[3] Levander, K. The Sytem based s
[4] http://themoneyconverter.com/NOK/EUR.aspx [Viitattu 14.11.2014]
[5] http://www.tradingeconomics.com/finland/inflationcpi [Viitattu 14.11.2014]
[6] Ship Conceptual Design, Lecture
[7] Arctech. Verkkolinkki: http://arctech.fi/references/offshore/ [Viitattu 12.11.2014]
[8] http://o.canada.com/news/coastguardsnewicebreakertocosttwiceasmuchasorigi
nallyestimated
[9] http://www.shiptechnology.com/projects/havilasubsea/ [Viitattu 14.11.2014]
[10] Aker Arctic excursion 13.11.2014
[11] Räisänen, P. 2000. Laitekniikka. ISBN 952511399X
[12] Bunkerworld. Verkkolinkki: http://www.bunkerworld.com/prices/ [Viitattu
17.11.2014]