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The ValuEngine Weekly is an Investor Education newsletter focused on the quantitative approach to investing and the tools
available from ValuEngine. In today's fast-moving and globalized financial markets, it is easy to get overloaded with information.
The winners will adopt an objective, scientific, independent and unemotional approach to investing.
This change should make our valuation, forecast, and ratings data more useful
as the sector and industry groupings will be more akin to similar designations found on
Bloomberg and other financial data providers.
In addition, with far more industry group sub-categories, comparisons between
stocks will be more nuanced and useful For example it will now be possible to search
for banks based on geographical location like "east," "midwest" etc. and search
Mining stocks by individual commodities such as "gold," silver," non-ferrous," etc.
When we implement this change, you may notice a change in the number of
stocks in a given sector or industry group as well as some fluctuations in certain
datapoints--such as sector and industry valuations, performance, and ratings data.
We hope to keep any disruption in service to a minimum and provide all of our
clients with a seamless conversion. We appreciate your patience and understanding
as we complete this process.
ValuEngine Institutional (VEI) subscribers will need to re-download and re-install
their software to implement the new changes. To begin the upgrade process, users
should go to "Help" and select "Product Key" in their software and write down their
activation code. Then, on November 8th or later, users should go HERE to download
the latest edition of the software. Run the install, re-enter the product key, and
update the Daily and then the Monthly databases.
Website users should notice the change as of November 8th. Website users will
not need to make any changes to their use of the website but may find changes in
sector and industry figures as noted above as well as some differences in a given
stock's comparables.
If you have any questions about our new sector and industry group
designations or the re-installation of your software and product code, please don't
hesitate to contact us at support@valuengine.com or (800) 381-5576
SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector Change MTD YTD Valuation Last 12- P/E Ratio
MReturn
Basic Industries 2.78% 4.55% 30.42% 14.61% overvalued 51.92% 26.34
Capital Goods 2.10% 5.17% 27.09% 2.94% overvalued 27.71% 22.48
Consumer Durables 2.20% 3.89% 20.48% 1.81% undervalued 37.29% 21.02
Consumer Non-Durables 1.67% 2.89% 13.85% 1.04% overvalued 26.72% 17.48
Consumer Services 1.39% 3.43% 18.97% 1.43% undervalued 24.77% 21.77
Energy 2.19% 4.48% 13.29% 14.02% overvalued 35.46% 26.8
Finance 1.57% 3.03% 16.02% 1.43% undervalued 17.26% 18.53
Health Care 1.27% 2.63% 25.87% 7.40% undervalued 15.12% 21.09
Public Utilities 1.45% 2.66% 4.69% 4.40% overvalued 20.86% 20.4
Technology 1.26% 2.84% 26.01% 0.70% overvalued 35.76% 25.78
Transportation 0.69% 2.64% 23.59% 4.48% overvalued 36.09% 20.25
Foreign Stock Talk—ADRs
Below, we present various top-five lists for the for the more than 400 ADRs we
cover from our Institutional software package (VEI).
Last 12-M
Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%)
Retn(%)
ARMH ARM HOLDNGS ADR 16.66 122.64 127.93
GGAL GRUPO GALIC ADR 16.24 107.11 181.46
VIT VANCEINFO TECH 37.68 65.5 129.9
RDY DOCTOR REDDYS 39.81 61.02 76.85
SQM SOC QUIMICA MIN 52.55 58.71 43.27
Treasury Yields
10-Year-- (2.487) Daily, annual and annual value levels are 2.660,
2.813 and 2.999 with monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky
levels at 2.380, 2.265 and 2.249. I still project that the decline in the
10-Year yield will be limited to my quarterly and semiannual risky
levels at 2.265 and 2.249.
Comex Gold--($1325.5) Quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are $1306.4,
$1260.8, $1218.7 and $1115.2 with my monthly pivot at $1343.7, and daily and weekly
risky levels at $1351.4 and $1373.6. Gold failed to hold my monthly pivot at $1343.7.
Nymex Crude--($1391.3) Quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are $1306.4,
$1260.8, $1218.7 and $1115.2 with my monthly pivot at $1373.0, and weekly risky level
at $1396.7. The rise in Gold extended the parabolic towards this week’s risky level at
$1396.7.
The Euro--(1.4213) Daily, quarterly and monthly value levels are 1.4019, 1.3318 and
$1.2709 with weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.4371 and 1.4733. The euro is
trading at a new high for the move with this week’s risky level at 1.4371.
Major Indices
The Dow--(11,435) Monthly, semiannual, annual and quarterly value levels are 10,848,
10,558, 10,379 and 8,523 with daily, annual, semiannual and weekly pivots at 11,263,
11,235, 11,296 and 11,374. I show no risky levels following the Dow Theory Buy Signal.
The Dow Theory Buy Signal is the technical reason for Dow 11,434.84. I noted the
following in our free weekly on October 22nd,
a Dow Theory Buy Signal occurs with Dow Transports closing above its May 3rd closing high at
4,806.1, and the Dow Industrials closing above its April 26th closing high at 11,205.03. The Dow
Industrials traded above 11,205.03 on Thursday, but did not close above that milestone. The
Dow Transports lagged well behind 4,806.1 blocked by weekly and monthly risky levels at 4779
and 4797.
This week, we saw the markets reach the levels necessary to confirm a Dow
Theory buy signal. Dow Theory holds that economic action can be tracked via a
Transportation index in order to garner clues about the overall productivity of the
economy and thus a larger stock index--for more on Dow Theory go HERE.
A Dow Theory Buy Signal is a late cycle signal that typically occurs after about
two thirds of the rally has already occurred. The signal fortifies the notion that the
market is in a "Buy Weakness" mode. As I promote in my ValuTrader Portfolio with my
"Buy and Trade" strategy, you want to buy on dips/weakness.
Remember that in my view the notion of "buy and hold" is dead these
days. You need to be aware of the trading ranges for the markets and move
accordingly. While I may hold a long-term perspective that we will see Dow 8500
before we see 11500 again, this does not mean you sit on the sidelines holding 100%
cash.
This means you "buy and trade" to book profits as any given equity moves within
my specified technical levels. For longs, you buy at value levels and sell at risky levels
and for shorts, you sell at value levels and buy at risky levels.
For the Dow, we know we have semiannual and annual pivots at 11,296 and
11,235. Below these levels are monthly, semiannual and annual value levels at 10,848,
10,558 and 10,379. Now that we are operating in a Dow Theory Buy mode, you want
to buy on weakness.
This is the opposite of what we saw the last time we had a Dow Theory-based
signal--which was in November, 2007. At that time, we structured our strategy the
opposite direction, we sold on strength. At that time, my macro-call was correct. We
saw some gains in the markets, but within a few months the real carnage began.
Thoughts on QEII
The Fed decision to buy $75 billion in longer-dated US Treasuries in each of the
next eight months will total $600 billion by the end of June 2011. This policy helps Wall
Street make money on commodity speculation and staying short the dollar, while
Main Street USA struggles with the higher cost of living resulting from higher energy
and food costs. The Fed says there is no inflation which is hogwash! Just observe the
rising Prices Paid components of the latest ISM readings.
The Fed Chairman says he wants higher stock prices and instead of giving
retirees a money market rate they can live with. The Fed wants folks living on a fixed
income to take more investment risks. Many on Main Street lost a bundle on the Fed-
induced bubbles of the new millennium. First was the Tech Bubble in 2000, then the
Housing Bubble in 2006, which continues today, and the stock market crash of
October 2007 to March 2009. Now we have a gold bubble and an overvalued stock
market. If Americans were allowed to vote on Fed policy the vote would have been
against QEII.
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