Gateway Distriparks LTD: Long Road To Recovery

INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH
Gateway Distriparks Ltd (GDPL IN)
Long road to recovery

18 May 2018
INDIA | LOGISTICS | Quarterly Update

Top takeaways from 4QFY18 BUY (Maintain)
8 Lower than estimated performance in the standalone business. CMP RS 166 / TARGET Rs 255 (+54%)
9 Recovery in CFS volumes with expansion in Krishnapatnam.
COMPANY DATA
8 Rail business dented due to lower productivity and increase in fixed cost.
O/S SHARES (MN) : 109
9 Cold‐chain business recovery with capacity expansion; margins under pressure. MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 18
MARKET CAP (USDBN) : 0.3
Key highlights 52 ‐ WK HI/LO (RS) : 292 / 161
• GDPL has not published detailed consolidated numbers for Q4FY18. LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 0.6
PAR VALUE (RS) : 10
• Standalone: Revenue up 16% yoy to Rs 865mn, +5% vs. estimates, EBITDA up 43% yoy
SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, %
to Rs 170mn, ‐2% vs. estimates, interest cost and depreciation increased with the
Mar 18 Dec 17 Sep 17
commissioning of a CFS at Krishnapatnam, profit fell 48% to Rs 80mn (lower than PC PROMOTERS : 28.8 26.0 26.0
estimate of Rs 118mn) due to lower other income (down 63% yoy to Rs 42mn) and FII / NRI : 36.0 39.2 39.0
increase in interest cost. FI / MF : 25.8 25.8 25.6
• Cold chain revenue (Q4, under subsidiary Snowman) increased 16% yoy to Rs 518mn, NON PRO : 1.9 1.7 1.6
PUBLIC & OTHERS : 7.6 7.4 7.9
EBITDA fell 11% to Rs 125mn, margins fell 750bps to 24.2%, profit at Rs 19mn due to
other income of Rs 32mn (vs. marginal profit of Rs 3mn in 4QFY17). Key Financials
Rs mn FY18 FY19 FY20E
Conference call takeaways Net Sales 3,955 4,344 4,937
9 Gateway Rail Freight has availed a net benefit of Rs 3.23bn under the government’s EBIDTA 844 950 1,087
Services Export from India Scheme (SEIS) – on deemed foreign exchange earnings on rail Net Profit 831 944 1,238
transportation and ICD services provided to various exporters during FY16. EPS, Rs 7.7 8.7 11.4
9 CFS business: Throughput +15% yoy to 105,066 TEUs, EBITDA +3% to Rs 214mn, PBT PER, x 21.7 19.1 14.6
+2.6% to Rs 146mn, PAT +22% to Rs 122mn. EV/EBIDTA, x 21.3 18.9 16.4
9 Rail business: Throughput +0.3% to 58,908 TEUs, EBITDA (excluding exceptional items) ‐ PBV, x 1.8 1.8 1.7
ROE, % 8.2 9.3 11.9
2.5% to Rs 340mn, PBT rose to Rs 477mn from Rs 185mn, PAT rose to Rs 392mn from Rs
Debt/Equity (%) 9.8 9.7 9.5
176mn due to SEIS benefit.
CHANGE IN ESTIMATES
9 Management expects volume recovery at JNPT after commissioning of the fourth
__Revised Est. __ __% Revision__
container terminal; government’s target for higher DPD share will hit profitability.
Rs mn FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E
9 The performance in the rail segment was hurt due to disturbance at Pipavav and
Revenue 4,344 4,937 ‐5 ‐2
Mundra port rail lines, lower productivity of trains, and higher imbalance in Exim trade. EBITDA 950 1,087 ‐11 ‐12
Management expects productivity to be remain negatively affected for about a year. Core PAT 944 1,238 ‐15 ‐14
9 Viramgam (Gujarat) container terminal started operations in July 2017 and is helping to EPS (Rs) 8.7 11.4 ‐15 ‐14
reduce haulage cost by ~2% (Rs 50mn savings in FY18) and is improving operational
efficiency. Vikram Suryavanshi (022 6246 4111)
vsuryavanshi@philipcapital.in
Outlook and valuation: At CMP, GDPL’s stock trades at 15x our FY20 earnings. We have
revised consolidated numbers considering weakness in margins and volume growth in rail
business in FY19/20. We maintain SOTP‐based valuation with a revised target of Rs 255 (Rs
280 earlier). Gateway holds 40% in Snowman, which we value at Rs 27 after applying a 10%
discount to its market cap of Rs 7.8bn.
Standalone (Rs mn) 4QFY18 4QFY17 yoy 3QFY18 qoq vs. expect. Comments

growth % %
Revenue 865 744 16.3 804 7.6 5% Volume up by 15% yoy
EBITDA 170 119 42.4 160 6.5 ‐2% Increased competitive pressure
EBITDA margins 19.7 16.1 3.6 19.9 ‐1.0 ‐7%
Other income 42 113 ‐63.0 60 ‐29.8 ‐40%
Depreciation 67 53 25.0 60 10.5 9%
Interest 26 6 340.2 18 39.4 35% Commissioning of Krishnapatnam CFS
PBT 120 174 ‐31.1 141 ‐14.9 ‐27%
Tax 39 18 118.9 38 2.9 ‐14%
PAT 80 156 ‐48.4 102 ‐21.6 ‐32%
Reported PAT 82 156 ‐47.2 103 ‐19.8 ‐30%
EPS (Rs) 0.7 1.4 ‐48.4 0.9 ‐21.6 ‐32%
Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

GATEWAY DISTRIPARKS LTD QUARTERLY UPDATE
Financials

Income Statement Cash Flow
Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e
Net sales 3,934 3,955 4,344 4,937 Pre‐tax profit 892 971 1,121 1,449
Growth, % ‐63 1 10 14 Depreciation 265 304 322 342
Total income 3,934 3,955 4,344 4,937 Chg in working capital 1,725 ‐62 ‐79 ‐99
Raw material expenses 0 0 0 0 Total tax paid ‐563 ‐144 ‐171 ‐203
Employee expenses ‐198 ‐203 ‐227 ‐255 Cash flow from operating activities 2,318 1,068 1,194 1,489
Other Operating expenses ‐2,825 ‐2,908 ‐3,167 ‐3,596 Capital expenditure 6,565 ‐420 ‐250 ‐300
EBITDA (Core) 911 844 950 1,087 Chg in investments ‐4,760 1,336 ‐38 ‐40
Growth, % (63.4) (7.4) 12.5 14.4 Cash flow from investing activities 1,982 1,317 150 297
Margin, % 23.2 21.3 21.9 22.0 Free cash flow 4,300 2,385 1,344 1,785
Depreciation ‐265 ‐304 ‐322 ‐342 Equity raised/(repaid) 970 50 50 50
EBIT 646 540 627 745 Debt raised/(repaid) ‐4,175 ‐104 0 0
Growth, % (61.6) (16.5) 16.2 18.8 Dividend (incl. tax) ‐897 ‐897 ‐897 ‐1,025
Margin, % 16.4 13.6 14.4 15.1 Cash flow from financing activities ‐4,294 ‐951 ‐847 ‐975
Interest paid ‐53 ‐108 ‐109 ‐110 Net chg in cash 6 1,434 497 810
Other Non‐Operating Income 123 137 164 178
Pre‐tax profit 892 971 1,121 1,449
Tax provided ‐151 ‐139 ‐178 ‐211 Valuation Ratios
Profit after tax 741 831 944 1,238
FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e
Others (Minorities, Associates) 0 0 0 0
Per Share data
Net Profit 741 831 944 1,238
EPS (INR) 6.8 7.7 8.7 11.4
Growth, % (32.4) 12.2 13.5 31.2
Growth, % (32.4) 12.2 13.5 31.2
Net Profit (adjusted) 741 831 944 1,238
Book NAV/share (INR) 93.7 93.1 93.5 95.5
Unadj. shares (m) 109 109 109 109
FDEPS (INR) 6.8 7.7 8.7 11.4
CEPS (INR) 9.3 10.5 11.7 14.5
CFPS (INR) 12.4 4.9 5.4 6.2
Balance Sheet DPS (INR) 7.0 7.0 7.0 8.0
Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e Return ratios
Cash & bank 84 1,065 1,073 1,197 Return on assets (%) 5.7 8.1 9.1 11.5
Debtors 455 546 656 787 Return on equity (%) 7.3 8.2 9.3 11.9
Loans & advances 38 44 51 58 Return on capital employed (%) 6.9 6.2 7.2 8.3
Other current assets 141 162 187 215 Turnover ratios
Total current assets 718 1,818 1,966 2,257 Asset turnover (x) 0.5 1.3 1.3 1.5
Investments 7,783 6,447 6,485 6,525 Sales/Total assets (x) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
Gross fixed assets 4,302 4,702 4,952 5,252 Sales/Net FA (x) 0.6 1.3 1.5 1.7
Less: Depreciation ‐1,800 ‐2,104 ‐2,427 ‐2,768 Working capital/Sales (x) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Add: Capital WIP 375 395 395 395 Fixed capital/Sales (x) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6
Net fixed assets 2,876 2,993 2,920 2,878 Receivable days 42.2 50.4 55.1 58.2
Non‐current assets 249 249 249 249 Payable days 17.2 18.4 18.6 18.0
Total assets 11,626 11,506 11,621 11,909 Working capital days 17.0 23.6 29.1 33.9
Liquidity ratios
Current liabilities 451 497 546 601 Current ratio (x) 1.6 3.7 3.6 3.8
Provisions 106 116 128 141 Quick ratio (x) 1.6 3.7 3.6 3.8
Total current liabilities 557 613 674 741 Interest cover (x) 12.2 5.0 5.8 6.8
Non‐current liabilities 807 698 705 713 Dividend cover (x) 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4
Total liabilities 1,364 1,311 1,379 1,454 Total debt/Equity (%) 10.7 9.8 9.7 9.5
Paid‐up capital 1,086 1,086 1,086 1,086 Net debt/Equity (%) 9.9 (0.8) (0.9) (2.0)
Reserves & surplus 9,091 9,025 9,072 9,284 Valuation
Shareholders’ equity 10,261 10,195 10,242 10,454 PER (x) 24.3 21.7 19.1 14.6
Total equity & liabilities 11,625 11,506 11,621 11,909 PEG (x) ‐ y‐o‐y growth (0.8) 1.8 1.4 0.5
Price/Book (x) 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7
Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates Yield (%) 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.8
EV/Net sales (x) 4.8 4.5 4.1 3.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.9 21.3 18.9 16.4
EV/EBIT (x) 29.5 33.3 28.6 23.9


Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History
400
350
300
B (TP 363) B (TP 345)
250 B (TP 345) B (TP 315) N (TP 280)
N (TP 265)
200 B (TP 280)
150
100
50
0
J‐16 F‐16 M‐16 M‐16 J‐16 A‐16 S‐16 N‐16 D‐16 F‐17 M‐17 M‐17 J‐17 J‐17 S‐17 O‐17 D‐17 J‐18 M‐18 A‐18

Rating Methodology
We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one
year.

Rating Criteria Definition
BUY >= +15% Target price is equal to or more than 15% of current market price
NEUTRAL ‐15% > to < +15% Target price is less than +15% but more than ‐15%
SELL <= ‐15% Target price is less than or equal to ‐15%.



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Date: 2018.05.18 17:03:45 +05'30'

Gateway Distriparks LTD: Long Road To Recovery

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INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH

Standalone (Rs mn) 4QFY18 4QFY17 yoy 3QFY18 qoq vs. expect. Comments

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