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• Objective
• Background
• Data Sources/ Portals
• Approach & Analysis
• Concluding Remarks
Objective
Kinematic Wave
Flood
Ia, Land Use, Soil, (CN) Channel Routing
Hydrograph
Antecedent Moisture
Conditions(P5)
Alberta
James River
Watershed
Classical NRCS Approach
( P − I a )2 100
Pes = S = 254( − 1)
P − Ia + S CN
Duration LPIII
Precipitation Antecedent Moisture
2 -Parameter
Conditions (P5: Dry,
Intensity Gumbel Gamma Distribution
Moderate, Wet)
Initial
LPIII Baseflow @
Abstraction
Loss Method Beginning LPIII
Curve Hydrograph of Rise
LPIII
Number
Recession
Equation
Note: LPIII = Log Pearson Type 3 Distribution
Determination of Storm Intensity, Duration and Hyetograph
Simulate Duration
Based on LPIII
Mean Depth
& Stdev = Duration
Hyetograph
3
d = Standard normal deviate
ln( Ia) = m + A *
d 1 3 A,B,m are distribution parameters
1
− + B
1 2
3* B 6 9 * B 3
(Log Pearson Type III)
• S = 218.14*e(-0.05621*P5) for 0 ≤ P5 < 18.75 mm (Dry)
• S = 125.47*e(-0.02671*P5) for 18.75 ≤ P5 ≤ 60 mm (Moderate)
• S = 26.598 * e (-0.0008537 * P5) for P5 > 60 mm (Wet)
Muzik and Chang(2003)
Parameters Ia
Dry Mod Wet
A -0.480 -1.344 -1.021
B 6.233 1.258 2.637
m 5.103 3.606 3.421
OVERVIEW: Montecarlo FLOOD SIMULATION TOOL
Initial
Abstraction
Soil Moisture
conditions
Monte-
Snowmelt/
HEC Module
Model Carlo Input
Baseflow
Initialization Generator
Flood Hydrograph
Ensemble
Excess Rainfall (e.g. 5,000)
Hyetograph
Climate /
Land Use Sensitivity/
Scenario Risk Evaluation
Model Validation; Flood Frequency Curve
JRW Flood Frequency Simulation Validation
Based on 5, 000 flood hydrograph peaks from Montecarlo simulations
We ran a bootstrap
resampling with 10,000
simulations to generate con-
fidence intervals for each
statistical measure of
confidence.
Parameter Observed Flow Simulated 95% CI
Mean (m3/s) 89.45 75.618 68.35 - 126.83
Stdev (m3/s) 107.47 83.252 50.44 - 162.41
Cs 3.878 2.219 0.715 - 4.640
Cv 1.201 1.100 0.737 - 1.280
Climate Models Simulations & Scenario Development
• Canadian Global Coupled Model V1, CGCM1
• Canadian Earth System Model V2 (CanESM2),
• Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab Earth System Model (GFDL-ESM2G)
• Institute of Numerical Mathematics Climate Model Version 4 (INMCM4)
IPCC Reference Period
• 1961-1990; Earlier studies reference period
• 1981-2010; Recent studies reference period
Future Climate Windows (Can vary depending on study)
• 2011 – 2040
• 2041 – 2070
• 2071 - 2100
Scenario Development
Thank you