Professional Documents
Culture Documents
;'-------~-
RDTE Project No. 1Ll62706A553-TA3-7
TECOM Project No. 8-C0-513-FBT-023
DPG Document No. --=D:.:...P-=-G--=S::....-...;..44..:..:5::..;..A'------
By
Wi 11 i am H. Rose
March 1981
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FORE\.JORD
The author gratefully acknowledges the valuable assistance of Dr.
Robert Elbel of t~e University of Utah, Entomology Department and Mr.
George Crane of Dugway Proving Ground.
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TA3LE OF CONTENTS
~O?EWORD . . · i
LIST OF TABLES vi
1 .6 CONCLUSIONS ........ . 8
SECTION 2. INTRODUCTION
2. l PURPOSE 11
2.2 METHOD . 11
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Page
SECTION 4. HISTORY OF EW FIELD TESTING IN THE US
4. l OPERATION BIG ITCH 15
4.2 OPERATION BIG BUZZ l5
4.3 OPERATION DROP KICK 15
4.4 OPERATION GRID IRON 16
4.5 OPERATION MAY DAY 16
4.6 AVON PARK TRIALS 17
4.7 MUNITION DISSEMINATION TESTS 21
4.8 OPERATION QUICKHENRY 21
4.9 BELLWETHER I 22
4. 10 BELLWETHER I I 23
4.11 BELLWETHER IV 24
4. 12 BELLWETHER IV PHASED 25
4 .13 MAG IC SWORD . . . . . 26
4. 14 OTHER EW STUD I ES CONDUCTED 26
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SECTION 8. APPENDICES
8.1 LITERATURE CITED 61
8.2 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 65
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l 8.3 DISTRIBUTION LIST . . 67
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UNCLASSIFIED
LI ST OF TABLES
Table
Resource Cost Summary for an ~ tularer..s:s Aerosol
Attack on a Battalion 4 &47
2 Resource Cost Summary for a Yellow Fever-Infected
Mosquito Attack on a Battalion . . . . . . . . . . 4 & 52
3 Resource Cost Summary for a Yellow' Fever-Infected
Mosquito Attack on a City .......... . 5 & 54
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UNCLASSIFIED
SECTION 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (U)
1. 1 PURPOSE
(U) This report assesses the current potential threat and probability
of use of various ento~ological warfare (EW) agents against the US and
European NATO nations by a foreign power or dissident organization. It
also makes recommendations to combat or negate this potential danger.
1.2 INTELLIGENCE INFORt'!ATION
(U) The following intelligence information is indicative of possible
development of EW by the Warsaw Pact Nations.
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UNCLASSIFIED
Table 1. (U) Resource Cost Summary for an F. :;:A.ZaY'ensis
Aerosol Attack on a Battalion.
Planning 8,750
Agent Production 10,000
Munition Acquisition 9,897
Weapon Employment 5,700
TOTAL: 34,347
l .5. 1.2 (U) Attack with Yellow Fever Infected Mosquitoes. The cost of
attacking a 7.5-km 2 area (battalion) with yellow fever-infected mosqui-
toes was estimated. Where possible, costs of equipment were taken from
1976 catalogues to make the cost comparison with the aerosol attack as
valid as possible. The feasibility of area coverage 1·1ith A. cegypti
mosquitoes was based on the Avon Park, Florida mosquito trials described
in Section 4 (11,12). Approximately 223,000 infected female .4. a.egypti
are required for this hypothetical attack. The mosquitoes would be
released from a helicopter 610 m upwind of the target area. Table 2
contains the resource cost summary for this attack. See Table 6 page
46 for the estimated cost of munition items for the:. :::.rare}:sis attack
and Table 7 page 49 for the estimated cost of items to raise 225,000
yellow fever infected mosquitoes.
Table 2. (U) Resource Cost Summary for a Yellow Fever-
Infected Mosquito Attack on a Battalion.
4
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1.5.2 City _,'~tack.
TOTAL: 10,473
5
city where attack personnel were considered to be already in the US.
The costs are summarized in Table 4.
(U) The closeness of agent and agent vector release in these two types
of attacks (610 m upwind of the target area) would preclude the advantage
of covertness. Therefore, personnel having access to protective masks
during an~- tuZarensis aerosol attack would probably have the opportun-
ity to take advantage of this method of protection.
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5 62,500 2.86
10 125,000 1. 43
20 250,000 0.72
30 375,000 0.48
40 500,000 0.36
50 625,000 0.29
1
Streptomycin, kanamycin, and chloramphenicol are a.lso effective against
F. tularensis~ although some strains of F. tularensis are resistant to
streptomycin.
8
jeath for various death :·atios 111 t ·e tulare1111a attack deoicted. -;-his tab1e
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l. 6 CONCLUSIONS
(U) Intelligence information dealing with the Warsaw Pact countries
has indicated that in the past they have attempted to produce an EW
capability. Presently, indirect evidence indicates activity in EW. The
evidence includes mass rearing of potential insect vectors and working
with microbiological agents compatible with EW agents that are not a
problem in these countries. The Warsaw Pact nations certainly have the
capability to conduct EW.
(U) The A. ae;;p~- yellow fever virus system is estimated to be
~e most likely antipersonne1 EW system that could be used by the Warsaw
Pact Countries against the US or the European NATO nations. FMD virus
is a 1ikely animal EW agent that could be effectively spread by M.
domesti2a with a resu1tant great economic loss.
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UNCLASSIFIED
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~~CTION 2. ~'.:TROOUCTION (U)
2. l PURPOSE
2. 2 ;:fTHODS
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5:CTION 3. :·;--:-ELLIGENCE I'.'ffORMATIOrl (U)
(U) Since Wcrld War II several reports have indicated the Soviet
Union has an interest in EW.
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3.4 FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE (FMD)
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SECTION 4. ~ISTORY OF E.-i_ F_IELu TE5THJG rn_ THE_US_(U)
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4.5 OPERATION MAY DAY (12,17)
(U) Operation MAY DAY consisted of studies of;. aegyp~i activity
and dispersion in an urban a"ea (Savannah, Georgia) from April to
November 1956.
(U) The tests were designed to give information on the dispersal
of .'1. c:.c:~7:•~'ti from a groun-:1 level point-source release in a short
period of time. Results were based primarily on mosquito recoveries
obtained in dry-ice baited traps. In these tests a small fraction
(0.5 percent to 7.75 percent) of the total number of mosquitoes
16
,.
(U) There \·Jere no:.. , .!:'':r: 111 the test area before the release of
the test mosquitoes; however, a nu~ber of native species of mosquitoes
were recovered by traps and by hu~an collectors.
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(U) The time of maximum biting of this species outdoors was early
in the morning and late in the evening during twilight and during
inversions when wind velocity was at a minimum. Outdoor collections
were made during these periods. Indoors, this species of mosquito
bites at any time when there is any 1 ight (natural or artificial).
Biting mosquitoes were collected in buildings from 0630 to 1930 (even
later at night in lighted buildings).
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UNCLASSIFIED
b. (U) Although many of these trials produced erratic and unpredic-
table results, analysis of these data indicates that each of the meteor-
ological variables studied (wind speed, temperature, relative humidity,
and solar radiation) exert a significant influence on the biting activity
of the A. ae1i!'ti mosquito. All variables would have to be considered
important parameters in any model designed to predict biting activity.
However, the effects of the latter three factors were manifested only in
terms of interaction with wind speed and with each other; wind speed
alone had a direct effect upon biting activity.
c. (U) An increase of 1 .6 km/hr in the ambient wind speed was
associated with a decrease of approximately six bites in a 4.6 m radius
circle with 10 volunteers during a 30-minute time interval.
d. (U) The data suggest that the previously determined lower
temperature limit of 15cc for vector biting activity of the non-cold-
resistant strain is placed too high. However, at these lower temperatures
some other factors (at present unknown) produce erratic results.
4.10 BELLWETHER II (20)
(U) In Bellwether II, 14 field trials were conducted at DPG from
6 September to 20 October 1960 (12). Up to 100 assigned military person-
nel were used as samplers in each trial. Grid arrays involved in Bell-
wether I were incorporated into this test design.
(U) The objective of Bellwether II, using release of uninfected,
starved virgin female;. aegypti mosquitoes, were, in part:
a. (U) To evaluate the effects of varying the host distance, the
host concentration, and the vector/host ratio,
b. (U) To determine the effect of the presence or absence of overt
movement of the human samplers upon the outdoor biting rate, and
c. (U) To investigate methods of placement of human samplers in
open terrain and within built-up areas.
(U) Development and improvement of a basic entomological field
test technology were the major goals throughout the test.
(U) For the specific conditions encountered, it is concluded that:
a. (U) In a 30-minute sampling period, there was no significant
difference in vector biting activity at distances up to 30 m from the
release point, but maximum biting activity occurred at distances of
<61 m.
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r1 UNCLASSIFIED
b. (U) Intervening hosts did not interfere with the vectors' outward
spread or biting activity.
24
conducted v;it•; strain 2. ·>e lo·d counts received in Trials C-2 and C-3,
as compared •.ii':,", tl1ose obt.:.i:',ed in Trial C-1, could be the result of
any or a 11 of ti; e fo 11 Oi·J i ng ::: ond i ti on s :
• Comparing strain R with strain CD mos~uitoes,
• A shift in wind direction at function time in Trials C-2 and
C-3 that carried vectors east of main sampling area,
• Lower ambient temperatures, and
• Unknown factors.
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UNCLASSIFIED
5.1 .3 Epidemiology
(U) Wild birds are the principal enzootic host of EEE (29). They
do not suffer apparent ill effects from the virus, although it circu-
lates in their blood and provides the basis for further infection via
mosquito vectors.
(U) The 1959 epidemic of EEE in New Jersey is a typical example of
a human epidemic of this disease (30). During his outbreak the swamp
mosquito Culcscta malunura served as the primar'.' sylvan vector carrying
EEE virus from enzootic swamp foci to peri-domLil iar wild and domestic
hosts in the epidemic (coastal) and epizootic (inland) areas. Aedes
soll-icitana served as the primary epidemic vector in the coastal area
where most of the human cases occurred, obtaining its infection from
peri-domiciliar avian reservoirs (including chickens) and transferring
it to humans. /\ccles vcxan<J served as the primary rpizootic vector in
the inland area and may have occasionally infected humans.
(U) C. malunum is attracted to and feeds primarily on birds,
although it has been known to feed on marrrnals (31). It is not persis-
tent in feeding activity (32). ;L soU-icitana frequents the salt
marshes of the eastern and southern US and is apparently much more
likely to feed on mammals (33).
(U) Culex pipiens pipiens is the enzootic vector of EEE in Europe.
This mosquito feeds principally on birds (31). Apparently this disease
has not been transmitted to humans in Europe because a mosquito that
is susceptible to EEE and that bites both birds and humans does not
exist in sufficient numbers. Murine (rats and mice) EEE endemic centers
do exist in Europe, however (28).
5.1.4 Disease Transmission.
(U) Three mosquito species (A. sollicitans, :L aegypti, and Aedes
tPiseriatus) have been shown to be capable of transmitting EEE virus to
>50 percent of the animals they bite (12). Chamberlain et al. were
able to infect 28 of 48 (58 percent) of exposed chicks using EEE infec-
ted IL ac~ypt-i (34). They found the A. acgypli animal threshold to be
around 10 and the 50 percent infection level to be 10 6 infectious
viral particles. The extrinsic incubation time in A. aegypti for EEE
virus has been reported to be between 8 and 34 days, depending on the
temperature; the mosquito apparently remains infective for life (12).
5.1.5 Ecological and Epidemiological Problems.
(U) EEE is endemic in the Eastern, Southern, and portions of the
mid-11Jestern US. This disease is uncommon in humans, in spite of its
frequency in the wild bird population, because the mosquito C. malunura
(the principal enzootic vector) does not usually bite humans.
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UNCLASSIFIED
(U) If a foreiqn oov:er used E~~-infected .:. :.~::·; · :_ to attack any
of the areas of the US or Europe where EEE is endemic, the problem
would orobably exist onlv as long as the infected A. ~cau0ti survived.
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5.2 YELLOW FEVER
5.2.1 Disease Characteristics
(U) Yellow fever virus is a Group B arbovirus that causes an acute
disease characterized by sudden onset, prostration, moderately high fever,
severe headache, backache, and leg pains. Severe cases often exhibit
vomiting of altered blood (black vomit), albuminuria, and jaundice.
The incubation period is from 3 to 6 days. The fatality rate in endemic
regions is less than 5 percent, but ranges from 30 to 40 percent among
31
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persons in non-endemic areas. lhe morbidity for unvaccinated individuals
in non-indiginous areas is considered to be bet~ieen 50 and 90 percent,
but with vaccination it is less than 1 percent (37).
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5.2.S Ecoloqical and EDidernioloaical Problems.
(U J Animals ::i:he·· than primates are not susceptible to yell0\'1
fever •;irus infec:ic:L Because l01·1er nrimates do not normally exist in
an urban environment. a yellow fever virus attack in an urban area
should not cause !~e virus to become endemic, except in the hJman popu-
lation. The cities i:; the US and Eurooe 1-.,ould soon eliminate the .l.
:~·:-J:-. -:· population once cases of yellov1 fever 1·1ere diagnosed, given the
mosquito abatement che~icals and equipment that are available in these
cities.
(U) Therefore, oermanent ecological damage from a yellow fever
virus attack would be very unlikely. However, an attack on a southern
US city or an Italian city where;. ~egyp:i might already be present
could result in a sianificant soread of yellow fever virus among the
human population before the disease was brought under control.
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5.3 PLAGUE
5.3.1 Disease Characteristics and Epidemiology
(U) Plague is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium
T1·10 types of plague exist, bubonic (usually transmit-
Yers'>[:i. ;;est:.s.
ted via insect bite, generally fleas), and pneurronic (generally contrac-
ted from infected persons).
(U) Bubonic olague, if untreated, has a mortality rate of 25 to
50 percent but the pneumonic form of the disease is almost always fatal.
Modern chemotheraoy is effective against both disease types only if
treatment is begun vii thin approximately 24 hours of the onset of symp-
toms.
(U) Wild rodents are the natural reservoir of plague but the
disease is at times harbored by domestic rats in urban areas. Bubonic
plague is occasionally transmitted from infected rodents to humans via
the bite of an infected flea. The oriental rat flea (Xenopsylla cheopis)
is the most frequent and also the most efficient vector. Pneumonic
plague is spread by contact or by the airborne route from patients with
primary pneumonic plague, or from patients with bubonic plague who
developed terminal olague pneumonia. In humans the incubation period
33
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is two to six days for bubonic plague and two to four days for pneomon-
ic plague. Susceptibility to plague is general, and immunity after
recovery is only temporary (38).
(U) After the rat flea bites an infected rat, the plague bacillus
multiolies inside the flea. The extrinsic incubation time of Y. Jestis
in the flea is temperature dependent. Research (39,40) has shown· that
at l9°C, 21 days were required for the flea to become infective, but
for fleas kept at 27°C, the required time was only 11 days. Other
fleas of the same species kept at 22-27°( were capable of transmitting
plague 15 days after they had been infected. The flea reaches the stage
it can infect when its proventriculus (esophagus) is blocked and it can
no longer effectively feed. After blockage, the fleas live for only 3
to 4 days under optimum conditions. Only about 58 percent of the X.
cheo-;;-c's fleas became blocked from feeding on infected guinea pigs.
However, this percentage is much higher than that recorded for other
species of fleas (39,40).
(U) The!. ~~cc~~a flea survives best in a moderately warm and
mo~st climate. One -investigator established optimum conditions for
survival of this flea on Madagascar at 15 - 20°C and a relative humidity
of 85 to 95 percent. Another investigator, dealing with the US, found
that x. c;,eo-::-:s populations were prevalent in warm, humid zones, and
increasingly" sparse in cold, arid areas. The incidence of X. chw?is
was generally highest in localities where the January mean temperature
was 4.5°C. Plaque epidemics in India have been reported to die out if
the temperature is >27°C and the humidity begins to decrease (40).
5.3.2 Area of Endemicity.
(U) Sylvatic (wild rodent) plague is endemic in the western third
of the US. Between 1908 and 1974, some 145 human plague infections
associated with wild rodents occurred in the US (36). US urban epidemics
have occurred in San Francisco, California (1900-1904 and 1907-1925);
Seattle, Washington (1907 and 1919); New Orleans, Louisiana (1914-1920);
and Pensacola, Florida (1925) (39,41).
(U) Plague is not endemic in Europe today, but during the Middle
Ages, an estimated 25 million or about one-fourth of the total European
population perished from this disease.
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5.4 ANTHRAX
37
(U) Anthrax is worldwide in distribution. In the US there are
large recognized areas of infection in South Dakota, Nebraska, Arkansas,
Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, and California. Small areas exist in a
number of other states.
(U) Clinical signs of anthrax vary according to the species of
animals affected and the acuteness of the attack. The average period
of incubation is one to five days. The disease may occur in a peracute,
acute, subacute, chronic, or cutaneous form. The peracute, apoplectic,
or fulminant form (most conman in cattle, sheep, and goats) occurs at
the beginning of an outbreak and is characterized by its sudden onset
and raridly fatal course. Victims display symptoms of cerebral
apoplexy (sudden staggering, difficult breathing, trembling, collapse,
and a few convulsive movements) and die, frequently without showing any
previous evidence of illness. The acute form usually ends in death in
a day or two, while the subacute form may lead to death in three to
five days or lonqer, or to complete recovery. The chronic form of
anthrax (which features local lesions in the tongue and throat) is ob-
served mostly in swine, but occurs occasionally in cattle, horses, and
dogs.
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disease in the US is forbidden. Under federal law, infected and exposed
animals must be destroyed. Similarly, prophylactic vaccines and sera
must not~used (43).
(U) In continental Europ~ where the disease is enzootic and it is
not economically feasible to institute such drastic measures of eradi-
cation, control is based on a modified system of quarantine and vacci-
nation, using vaccines specific for the type of virus involved. The
irrrnunity from these vaccines lasts only about four to six months.
(U) The concern US authorities show for keeping FMD virus out of
the country is evident in a recent article in a 1978 issue of Science
(46). The only laboratory in the US where work with FMD virus is allowed
is at the US Department of Agriculture Experimental Station, Plum
Island, New York. The laboratory is a "P4 containment facility
11
and the most elaborate means and equipment are employed to keep all
microorganisms contained within the facility. The article describes an
incident \·1here cattle at Plum Island began showing symotoms of FMD.
Elaborate decontamination procedures, including destruction of the
cattle and issuing decontaminated clothing to all workers before they
were allowed to leave the island, were followed to prevent the virus
from spreading past the confines of the facility.
5.5.2 Potential of FMD in EW.
(U) The extreme contagiousness of FMD would make it possible for
this disease to be very rapidly disseminated throughout the country.
For instance, there are 41 large market locations in the continental
US where cattle, calves, hogs, and sheep are auctioned. All of these
animals are susceptible to FMD virus infection. Most of these animals are
subsequently slaughtered and butchered for their meat. However, many
of the younger animals bought are taken to ranches. If these animals
were infected at the cattle auction they vJOuld act as disease carriers
and subsequently infect the herds they were taken to. Because these
animals go to ranches all over the country this very communicable
disease would soon become very widespread and the economic damage would
be tremendous.
(U) The economic impact of natural eaidemics in the past has been
significant. Between 1902 and 1929 FMD virus gained entrance into the
US six times. Each time it was eradicated, but it took the lives of
over 325,000 domestic animals a1d 22,000 deer - a loss of 390 million
dollars based on the economy at that time. Between 1947 and 1956 the
US spent 135 million dollars to help eradicate the disease in Mexico
to prevent its entrance into the US and similarly 683 million dollars
to protect US livestock from a Canadian outbreak in 1952. The US
Department of Agriculture estimated that a natural outbreak in 1961
would probably cost over a half billion dollars {47). In 1980 that
figure would be much greater and an artificially started outbreak could
be much larger than a naturally occurring one.
40
UNCLASSIFIED
(U) The Cll'OSS :,ational u1·~ ::,;ct (G,JP) of the US in 1977 ',;as listed
1
as S1900 billion anj the total .alJe of all the cattle, hogs, ~igs, and
sheeo in the US fc:· that year,·._-:::; eC'ti ''ated at $2.'3.4 hillion. The
1
"'.:arqet por.ulation c:1erefore is about 1.6 percent of the GNP of the US.
'.Jaturally, all of t~ese livestock 1·1ould not be infected, but if the
attacks ~ere at a "'.:ime of the year when most livestock ranches buy
animals, a significant number of herds would be infected and thus forced
to be slauahtered.
(U) Fortunately, the incubation period for FMD is short (normally
tv:o to five days). Thus, anir1als 1·1ould start to exhibit FMD symptoms
in about two days. It would likely take at least another day or two to
detennine the source of the vins and to stop additional animals from
entering the animal pens of the auction markets and becoming infected.
The incoming cattle would then be rerouted to cattle pens at other lo-
cations or returned to their original locations. Regardless of desti-
nation, the ani1:1.als could likely still be infected.
(U) Another target for an enemy agent trying to cause large econo-
mic losses would be feeder lots. Wherever large numbers of cattle,
sheep, or pigs are penned or pastured in relatively small ar2as, they
would make good targets. Many of the cattle sold at auctions for
slaughter probably would develop SMD symptoms before slaughter and thus
not be useful for consumption. In addition, much money and time would
have to be spent to decontaminate areas and to dispose of diseased
cattle. Slaughter houses would become contaminated and have to be
disinfected.
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(U) FMD virus is quite resistant to aging and drying. It will
remain infective for one month on hair, four to five months on hay and
grains, and for one month or more in the soil. In one instance the
survival of the virus was demonstrated on a farm 345 days after an out-
break (48).
(U) FMD virus is infective to animals via the three routes
mentioned. Furthermore, flies released in the general area of cattle
or other animals tend to seek them out. Radioactive isotopes as
markers showed that flies can travel as far as 32 km from their source,
41
but that their dispersion capacity is usually 1 imited to 0.8 to 3.2 km
(49). Fli~~ can ~a~ily be external1y infected with dried virus. Their
feet are coated with a sticky mucus-like substance that al lows dry
material to adhere. They also have many hairs that would tend to hold
the virus to their bodies. Flies normally are attracted to animals and
crawl on them so that the animals would soon become infected whether via
a cut, swallowing an item that the fly had contaminated, or breathing
in virus the fly had released near the animals' nostrils.
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(U) Although there are no known data on the longevity of FMD virus
exposed to sunlight, it probably does not differ markedly from other
viruses that exhibit similar survival characteristics. One such virus,
Venezuelan equine encephalitis (VEE), was tested under outdoor conditions
(50). VEE was tested for longevity on the soil surface when exposed to
the harsh desert summer conditions (air temperatures 12 to 36°C). It
survived for an average of approximately 40 hours when placed on the
soil in high concentrations in the early part of the night. Thus, FMD
virus on flies would probably survive throughout the night and a con-
siderable portion of the day. FMD virus would be able to survive at
least long enough for the flies to find, contaminate, and infect animals
that were located nearby.
42
Ui~CLASSIFIED
(U) Tht! ,11,e,c >- ,'crength .,f ~'.: lies in deployment of le;:hal bio-
logical aqents. ·:·ubabl1 cc.1,e1'S too sriall an arec1 for effective use
of an incapacitat · .'.rient . .·\ET·Jsol dissemination covers a -.vider 1rca
than E'·!, allmvinc ::'-·-·ective use cJ an incapacitating agent. _:;1so,
modern mosquito i,~,.::2 .. ent methods are so effective that it is unlikely
1
(U) While ~EE and malaria do possess some of the attributes neces-
sary for use in E~. several factors make their use less probable than
EEE or yellov; fe1,e1'. These factors are:
e The mos~Jito vectors that normally spread WEE and malaria are
not as easily raised as A. a.6qypti.
(U) Because of their limited mobility and thus low area coverage,
ticks have a very low potential as EW disease vectors. Thus tick borne
diseases such as ~ocky Mountain Spotted Fever and Russian Spring and
Summer Encephalit:s which are primarily spread by ticks are considered
to have a low EW threat potential.
\ \
\
\
(b)(l) ..•
43
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
45
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
46
in Table l, along with cost estimates and the estimated cost for agent
production. The total cost of sucn an attack would be approximately
$34,347 (1976 dollars).
(b)(l} •••
.~~ - ----- - -' ...... -~ -· - . --~--- .-
(U) During the Avon Park Trial, approximately 225,000 female
mosquitoes released 1·1ere estimated to have spread over an area of 7. 77
km 2 (samplers confirmed most of this area coverage). Furthermore, it
was estimated that 90 to 100 percent of the 700 personnel in the area
were bitten at least once, and most personnel several times.
(U) Because of the almost identical area coverage achieved in the
Avon Park Trials, as compared to the area coverage needed to attack a
battalion in the field (7.77 km 2 versus 7.5 km 2 ), the cost estimate for
a yellow fever-infected mosquito attack used the same number of mosqui-
toes as in the Avon Park Trial. This was then compared with the cost
estimated to attack the same area using F. tularensis (10). Costs are
in 1976 dollars because reference 10 is a 1976 publication and lists
costs for that year.
1
The actual number released was slightly less than 320,000 because
some of the mosquitoes died before release.
47
·-·. -·-~
·- ....
~ ~ .,
j
(b)(l) •••
48
UNCLASSIFIED
Estimated
Item Number Cost (1976 $)
Mosquito Cages 8 80
Guinea Pig Cage 20
Guinea Pigs 3 40
Humidifiers 2 35
Shelving and Pans l, 506
TOTAL $9,066
49
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
(U) In 1975 the McMaster-Carr Co. also listed steel shelves 191 cm
high x 91 cm wide x 46 cm deep for $34.72, with five shelves. Extra
shelves were listed at $4.94 per shelf. If 9 cm between shelves is
allowed, there will be 21 shelves to a unit. Each unit will cost
$113.76, and it will accommodate 42 pans. Seven full units will be
needed plus one extra unit with 12 shelves to accomodate the needed
318 pans. The total cost of shelving at 1975 prices is $865.62.
' '
50
UNCLASSIFIED
(U) The humidity in a mosquito insectary must be kept high, pre-
ferably about 80 to 90 percent. About $35 would be needed for two
humi di fi ers.
(U) Many miscellaneous items would also be required, including:
yellow fever virus and syringes to infect the monkeys, sugar and cotton
to feed the mosquitoes; plasma extender, food for monkeys and guinea
pigs, paraffin for coating the larvae rearing trays, volumetric pipettes
for removing mosquito larvae, a hose for filling mosquito larvae trays,
and a sizing screen for sexing mosquito larvae. About $160 would be
needed for these items. Table 7 summarized these items and their
estimated costs.
(b)(l) •••
..
51
difference in the two modes of attack, with the mosquito attack being
the cheaper. Table 2 contains the resource cost summary for the yellow
fever-infected mosquito attack on a battalion area.
Planning 8,750
Agent Production 9,066
Munition Acquisition 2,150
\./eapon Employment 6,700
TOTAL: 26,666
(b)(l) ••• ..
-...... ··~.,. .. ----4
52
l
J (b)(l) •••
I
(U) An additional factor to consider in comparing the F. b~larensis
aerosol attack with the yellow fever mosquito attack on a battalion is
that yellow fever has a fatality rate of 30 to 40 percent in a non-
immune oopulation and cannot be treated effectively. In contrast, tularemia
can be treated effectively with antibiotics. Under such treatment, tularemia
has an estimated fatality rate of <5 percent. Furthermore, there are few
potential BW agents that are lethal and cannot be treated with antibiotics.
Smallpox, rabies, and lassa fever are all lethal diseases that can be spread
by aerosols and are not treatable by antibiotics, but their LDso s are 1
(b)(l) •••
j 1
... ,- , .....__ .,..,..,-·,-~! :w-a!I
(U) Assuming the cost of planning a city attack with yellow fever-
infected mosquitoes is comparable to the cost of planning a battalion
attack, and 16 simultaneous city attacks are planned, the cost of any
one attack would be $547.00 ($8750 f 16).
\
,(
'\
:/
(b)(l) •••
53
(U) The cost of munition acquisition may vary slightly from that
required for the aerial mosquito release because the mosquitoes must be
released gradually at a rate appropriate for the vehicle speed rather
that all at once. Therefore, instead of four large containers a series
of smaller containers that could be opened sequentially probably would
be needed. The cost of such an apparatus probably would not be signi-
ficantly higher than the $150.00 allotted for munition acquisition in
the aerial mosquito release. Three hundred dollars was estimated to be
sufficient for construction of such an apparatus with an additional
$200.00 necessary for testing or a total of $500.00 for munition
acquisition.
Planning 547
Agent Production 9,066
Munition Acquisition 500
Weapon Employment 360
TOTAL: 1o,473
1' / \
; ., .
.•
/
(b)(l) •••
'·
54
UNCLASSIFIED
Estimated Cost In
Cost Integrated
Category ( $) Attacka
I and
Equipment
20 impingers ($25 each)
20 vacuum pumps (S124 each)
20 batteries ($35 each)
500
2,480 [4,455]
700 -16
= 278
1 measurement laboratory
(5 days) 250
aif 16 simultaneous attacks are planned, some of the costs are divided
by 16 to give the cost per attack
bTotal cost, by category.
55
UNCLASSIFIED
(b)(l} •••
Planning 547
Agent Production 174,000
Munition Acquisition 1,435
Weapon Employment 3,250
TOTAL: 179,232
(b)(l) ••• ,,
l..r
56
(b)(l) •••
5 62,500 2.86
10 125,000 1.43
20 250,000 0.72
30 375,000 0.48
I
I 40 500,000 0.36
'
I
j 0.29
50 625,000
57
UNCLASSIFIED
7. l CONCLUSIONS
(U) Intelligence information gathered about the Warsaw Pact ccuntries
indicates that in the past, they have attempted development of an EW
capability. Indirect evidence, e.g., mass rearing of potential insect
vectors and working with microbiological agents compatible with EW
that are not a problem in these countries, comprises the evidence
available to indicate present activity in this area. The Warsaw Pact
nations certainly have the capability to conduct EW.
(U) The A. aegypti/yellow fever virus system is estimated to be the
most likely antipersonnel EW system that could be used by the Warsaw Pact
countries against the United States or the European NATO nations. Foot
and mouth disease virus is a likely animal EW agent that could be effec-
tively spread by M. comes-::ica.
(U) In the magnitude of the city attack scenarios described in this
report, i.e., 16 simultaneous attacks on urban areas, the A. aea~cti/
yellow fever virus EW attack system was estimated to be less co;f effec-
tive than the F. rularensis aerosol mode of attack in casualties produced,
but it may be more cost effective when considering mortalities produced.
The A. aeqypti/yellow fever virus attack system becomes more cost effec-
tive in relation to the?. tularensis aerosol attack mode if the magnitude
of the attack becomes smaller, and less effective when the magnitude
becomes greater. The A. aegypti/yellow fever virus EW attack system
also requires less expertise to develop and employ than the F. ~~larensis
aerosol system
59
UNCLASSIFIED
--~--------------------
UNCLASSIFIED
and neck and the use of mosquito repellant. Long sleeve shirts with
gloves tightly fastened around the wrists should be worn. Pants should
be fastened tightly around the ankles and two pairs of socks worn. Hats
should be worn to protect the tops of heads.
(U) Where possible, insecticide spraying should be started in
individual dwellings. In the event of an EW plague attack, people
should be assured that it is treatable and in the event of plague symp-
toms, antibiotic treatment must not be delayed. If sufficient evidence
is available that a plague flea attack has occurred, and if sufficient
antibiotics are available, antibiotic treatment of flea-bitten individ-
uals might even be given before the appearance of symptoms.
(U) Panic is one of the most important things to prevent in the
event of an EW attack on the general population. People must be
assured that, ordinarily, the best procedure for them to follow is not
to flee the area but to stay and receive proper treatment, or if mos-
quitoes are the vector, to stay inside and stay protected.
60
SECTION 8. 2PPENDICES (U)
(b)(l) •••
•··
(b)(l) •••
.I
al
61
UNCLASSIFIED
··- ....
• ..::r ....
14. U.S. Army Chemical Corps, Fort Detrick, Frederick, MD, Special
Report 253, Operation Big Buzz (U), Technical Development Laboratories,
Savannah, GA, and AS Division, November 1955. UNCLASSIFIED
,
t
(b)(l) •••
(b)(l) •••
..
.
62
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
26. Lord, R.D. and C.H. Calisher, FJrther evidence of southvvard trans-
port of arboviruses by :iigratory birds, :..mer. J. 2;,idem. 92:73-78,
1970. UNCLASSIFIED
27. Korstad, L., et al., Eastern equine encephalitis studies in
1.~i scans in, j. of Inf. ~~s. l 06( l): 53-59, 1960. UNCLASSIFIED
28. Ising, E., Zoological aspects of the epidemiology of eastern
equine encephalitis viruses in Europe, z. Angew. Zool. 62(4):419-434,
1975. UNCLASSIFIED
29. Grady, G.F., et al., Eastern equine encephalitis in Massachusetts,
1957-1976, A prospective study centered upon analysis of mosquitoes,
Am. J. of E-;:r:dem. 107(2):170-178, 1978. UNCLASSIFIED
(b)(l) •••
63
. . . . . 9.,J/1111119 W' _....._ I U EL I;...-.,
CONFIDENTIAL
40. Pollitzer, R., Plague, World Health Association, Geneva, Switzer-
land, 1954.
41. Stark, H.E., Hudson, B.W. and Pittman, B., Plague Epidernology,
National Communicable Disease Center, Atlanta, Georgia, 1969.
UNCLASSIFIED
t)
(b)(l) •••
43. The Merck Veterinary Manual, Third Edition, O.H. Siegmund Editor,
Merck and Co. Inc. Rathway N.J. 1967. UNCLASSIFIED
(b)(l) •••
- (b)(l) ••• \
. . -·- .-,j
64
UNCLASSIFIED
ABBREVIATION TER.t.1
Aedes aegyp-t:i
EH entomological warfare
65
UNCLASSIFIED