Introduction

El Niño is a Spanish term which means “The Little Boy” or “Christ Child”. It is a

phenomenon that refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked

to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central

Equatorial Pacific (NOAA, 2018). This occurrence usually results in drought and can

also cause heavy rains, flooding or extremely hot or cold weather (FAO, 2019) which

may become a threat to agricultural regions.

The seriousness of this phenomenon has inflicted disastrous emergencies in

various places of the world; emergencies like starvation, flooding, forest fires,

mudslides, loss of agrarian domesticated animals and occupations (the vast majority of

the farmers, day workers and their families) and even death.

In the Philippines, the most influenced component is the "backbone of the

economy", agriculture and the farmers (Silent Gardens, 2019). The effects of El Niño

range from US$325 million worth of damage and losses in crops, 413 456 affected

farming households that need support to restart farming activities, 1.48 million metric

tons of crops lost, including rice, corn, cassava and high-value crops such as banana

and rubber. Out of 18 regions of the country, 16 were affected between February 2015

and July 2016. Impact was strongest in Mindanao, where 27 provinces were affected.

(FAO, 2017) The Philippines is no stranger to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

events and its attendant impacts. Despite being plagued by several disastrous weather

events that brought in a lot of rains during the period of September – October 2009, the

country had, in fact, been warned of a conventional El Niño event as early as August

2009. With the continued below normal rainfall conditions due to the moderate 09-10 El
Niño event being experienced in the country, measures to prepare against these

drought conditions are being implemented. The drought and dry spell conditions are

expected to persist until summer, so the country must switch to a crisis mode in dealing

with the impacts that will accompany this ENSO event.

The effects of El Niño on national rice production parameters were analyzed by

comparing the trends in rice production, rice yields and harvested rice areas for the

period 1970-2005 for normal and for all (including El Niño) years. The deviations from

the expected national production, yield level and area harvested were computed for

rainfed, irrigated and combined rainfed and irrigated areas for each cropping season for

weak, moderate and strong El Niño episodes. At the provincial level, the deviations in

rice production were regressed against an index of El Niño-induced drought magnitude

which was computed as the sum of the percent deviation of monthly rainfall from its

normal value for all continuous periods within the cropping season with below normal

rainfall lasting 2 months or more. The sample provinces were grouped according to the

Corona climate types and vulnerability classifications of David et al. (2007) to gain

insights on the effects of El Niño-induced drought on rice production in provinces with

different climate types and El Niño-induced droughts vulnerability categories. The

vulnerability to El Niño-induced droughts of rice production in the sample provinces may

be modeled from the resulting regression equations. The relative vulnerability to

droughts of other provinces may be gleaned from the average values of the parameters

for provinces within the same climate type or drought vulnerability class.

Another study uses regression analysis to evaluate the relationships among sea

surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) averaged over the Niño-3.4 region (5°N–5°S,
120°–170°W), rainfall, rice production, area harvested, and yield in Luzon, the large

island on which most Philippine rice is grown. In a previous research on Philippine rice

production and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), negative associations between El

Niño events and rice yields in rainfed systems were found. This analysis goes further

and shows that both irrigated and rainfed ecosystems are impacted. It also compares

impacts on area harvested and yield. (Roberts et al., 2009) Rice is the staple food and

most widely planted crop in much of Asia, including the Philippines (Dawe 2007).

New studies are showing that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has major

implications for the functioning of different ecosystems, ranging from deserts to tropical

rainforests. ENSO-induced pulses of enhanced plant productivity can cascade upward

through the food web invoking unforeseen feedbacks, and can cause open dryland

ecosystems to shift to permanent woodlands. These insights suggest that the predicted

change in extreme climatic events resulting from global warming could profoundly alter

biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in many regions of the world. Our increasing

ability to predict El Niño effects can be used to enhance management strategies for the

restoration of degraded ecosystems.

EL Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are costly to agriculture in that they

contribute to its variability. It is possible that climate change will increase ENSO event

frequency and severity. This study investigates the economic consequences of ENSO

events for the international rice market, along with the consequences of a possible

increase in event severity. Historical data are used to estimate the ENSO impact on rice
production, and the resulting parameters are incorporated into a stochastic spatial

equilibrium model. Our results indicate that an average El Niño or La Niña event

reduces annual welfare in the world rice market by US$741 million or US$2058 million.

The additional welfare loss amounts to US$595 million or US$637 million, respectively,

if extreme El Niño or La Niña events take place, and to US$1337 million or US$1392

million, respectively, if the frequencies of extreme events increase. The empirical results

also show that an expansion in both trade and storage capacity can mitigate ENSO

damage.

According to MindaNews.com (2015), around P156 million worth of agricultural

crops in South Cotabato province have been so far devastated as a result of the

prolonged dry spell triggered by mild El Niño Phenomenon. Justina Navarrete, acting

head of the South Cotabato Office of the Provincial Agriculturist (OPAG), said that their

latest assessment showed that a total of 3,504 hectares of corn and palay crops in parts

of the province have been destroyed as more farmlands have dried up due to the

intense dry weather. The affected areas covered major production sites in Koronadal

City and in the municipalities of Polomolok, T’boli, Tupi, Surallah, Banga, Sto. Nino,

Lake Sebu Tampakan, Norala and Tantangan. The corn areas posted the most damage

at 3,081 hectares valued at around P136.65 million. It affected over 1,000 corn farmers

and farm workers in 110 of the province’s 199 barangays. On the part of the provincial

government of South Cotabato, Navarrete said, “They have implemented various

interventions to help mitigate the effects of the dry spell. The local government earlier

released some P420,000 for the installation of additional shallow tube wells in rain-fed
farm areas in the municipalities of Tantangan, Banga and Surallah .

The researchers considered these data relevant and related to the study due to

the fact that it was recently made, and they were uploaded on reliable platforms. The

presented data can further explain the effects of El Nino on General Santos City’s

agricultural sector. These data also shows how the government mitigates the effects of

El Nino, and the steps they took in order to contribute to its said mitigation.

The primary purpose of this study is to provide an insight concerning the impacts

of El Niño in General Santos City over the past years. Hence, the results of this study

will benefit the students, teachers, and respectively, the producers which are the

farmers, and the consumers. This study will serve as basis for the development and

improvement in regards to the effects of El Niño in one's crop yield. This measures the

obtained data throughout the past years to compare and to resolve the problems.

This study will benefit the agricultural aspect and the economy. This would allow

them to conduct an investigation and incite awareness to those who are affected. With

the collected data, it is more efficient to find what lacks and the necessity of the travail.

The producers, which are the farmers, will be able to execute ways to lessen its effects.

The consumers will have a better understanding, enabling them to know its difficulty.

Furthermore, this study will serve as research basis for future studies having the

same matter as this only covers the exclusive years and can be added in the future.

Future researchers will benefit from this study, as this will provide facts and data to
continue examining the existing phenomenon.

Specifically, this study sought to answer the following questions:

1. What are the significant effects of El Nino on the agricultural sector of General

Santos City over the past years?

2. How does El Nino affect the fields in General Santos City in terms of:

a) Economy

b) Society

c) Inhabitants

3. What are the differences of this study and the data collected in the past in terms of:

a) Economy

b) Society

c) Inhabitants
Methodology

This research follows a qualitative type of research, as this study deals with

observational data from various qualitative sources. Qualitative research is a type of

research that requires non-numerical data which means that it uses words rather than

numbers to express the results, the inquiry or investigation about people’s thoughts,

beliefs, feelings, views, and lifestyles regarding the object of the study.

This research is focused on the historical analysis of El Nino’s effects in General

Santos City. This paper strives to find the correlation between El Nino and the food crop

yields of seven barangays, namely Baluan, Buayan, Katangawan, Lagao, Ligaya, San

Isidro, and Tinagacan, from 2015-2018.

The researchers collected data from the APCO Office of the Department of

Agriculture on May 20, 2019 from 9:15 to 9:50 AM located at Barangay Lagao, General

Santos City. The Department of Agriculture promotes agricultural development and

growth. In pursuit of this, the DA provides the policy framework, helps direct public

investments, and, in partnership with the local government agencies (LGUs), provides

the support services necessary to make agriculture and agri-based enterprises

profitable and help spread the benefits of development to the poor particularly in the

rural areas.

The researchers met Mr. Ronnie Muyco of the APCO office that the researchers

went to. He searched for the records of the crop yields and gave the researchers a copy

of the 2015-2018 reports of crop yields prepared by Delia L. Factor, a Rice Report
Officer, and checked by Rafael C. Demafeliz, a Rice Program Coordinator.
Results and Discussion

This study uses data on rice production (planted and harvested). Data on rice

production, area planted, and harvested, and time period (January – December), were

gathered from the Department of Agriculture for the period of 2015 – 2018. When data

were missing for a particular month in a particular year at a particular site, we compared

two approaches for filling in the missing data. The first was to use the long-term average

for that month at that site, and the second was to calculate the production data average

for that particular month in that particular year using data from six sites. We elected to

use the former procedure in subsequent analysis.

Based on production data of crop yields in 2015, the total amount planted is

2081.185 hectares coming from 7 barangays: Baluan, Buayan, Katangawan, Lagao,

Ligaya, San Isidro, and Tinagacan (each amounting to a respective number) from the

months of January to December, which are 824.31,127.09, 233.21, 375.455,

324.34,132.28, and 64.5 hectares, respectively. The total amount harvested is 2255.48

hectares consisting of the following values of the said barangays: 835.40, 86.43,

304.60, 463.99, 310.03, 179.53, and 75 hectares. The volume of production (MT)

amounted to 9872.722 metric tons consisting of 3602.652, 315.735, 1071.02,2210.668,

966.128, 1467.85, and 238.669 metric tons from the respective barangays, with

Barangay Ligaya having no harvest production on the months of March to April due to

dry spells.
 Figure 1. Production Data of Crop Yields (2015).

In 2016, the amount of crop yields planted amounted to 1930.345 hectares. This

consisted of the following values: 614.86, 141.69, 263.78, 435.225, 302.32, 101.15, and

71.32 hectares. The total of crops harvested is 1822.975hectares. This is made up of

the following: 604.02, 105.46, 242.92, 366.645, 287.44, 153.54, and 62.95 hectares.

The volume of production totals to 7071.102 metric tons, consisting of: 2564.518,

273.335, 1159.77, 1309.51, 1066.43, 526.72, and 170.819 metric tons. There is no

volume of production for Tinagacan on the month of June and Ligaya from January and

April - June due to dry spells.

 Figure 2. Production Data of Crop Yields (2016).

In 2017, the planted areas amount to 2092.563 hectares. This consists of the following

values from each barangay from the month of January to December: 782.348, 102.94,

312.655, 349.38, 253.175, 237.095, and 65.13 hectares. The total of the harvested

areas is 1998.932 hectares. This is made up of: 744.86, 111.59, 252.972, 422.34,

137.96, 161.96, and 75.15 hectares. The volume of production totals to 8666.696 and is

consisted of the following values: 1506.289, 504.14, 1059.756, 1805.625, 938.161,

656.555, and 254.18 metric tons.

 Figure 3. Production Data of Crop Yields (2017).

In 2018, the total amount of planted areas is 2174.975 hectares. This consists of

the following values: 771.42, 135.31, 115.885, 301.49, 200.51, 182.72, and 83.95

hectares. The harvested area accumulates to 1845.382 hectares. It consists of 775.63,

127.98, 179.492, 338.04, 189.4, 171.10, and 68.74. The volume of production amounts

to 8836.011 metric tons. This consists of the following: 3497.45, 628.78, 823.886,

1660.185, 1132.59, 784.271, and 320.39.

 Figure 4. Production Data of Crop Yields (2018).

The graph below shows the differences of the total production data based on the

data given on the previous graphs:

Figure 5. Differences of total production data from 2015-2018.

Figure 5 shows

that the planted areas (hectares) decreased greatly in 2016, having only 1930.345
hectares of land compared to the data from 2015 which is 2081.185 hectares. However,

in the following years after 2016, the areas continued to grow from 2092.563 in 2017

until eventually becoming 2174.975 in 2018.

In Figure 5, the harvested areas are shown. Having had its peak in 2015, the

graph shows that the amount of harvested areas (hectares) have both continually

decreased in 2016 (1822.975 hectares) and 2018 (1998.932) , and increased in 2017.

However, this did not amount to a number greater than the ones harvested in 2015.

In Figure 5, the volumes of production are shown. Having the greatest amount

(metric tons) in 2015, the values of the following years have been decreasing in 2016

and continually increasing, although the amount of the production was less than the

data gathered in 2015.

This statistical analysis aims to display the consolidated data for the planting,

area harvested, and the volume production of rice from year 2015 to 2018. Data

gathering was obtained from the Department of Agriculture, coming from crop yield

reports of 7 barangays in General Santos City. To examine the intensity of the effect of

El Nino season onset at the first half of the year upon these rice fields through time, the

researchers widened the coverage of their study in years as well as the number of

localities to be included.

By looking at the charts, the planting of rice crops in the City of General Santos

could be described as efficient among all the seven barangays. By year 2015, the total

area in hectares utilized for the rice paddies ranged up to 2081.185 hectares. The
following year, the degree of planting measured by area has depreciated up to 150.84

hectares in total. Year 2016 has obtained the lowest summation of area in hectares

among the course of four years with a total of 1930.345 hectares. Rice planting has

increased to 162.218 hectares summing to 2092.563 hectares. Planting was observably

at its peak when the following year came forward with a consumed area of 2174.975

hectares.

Not a significant variability has been obtained from the results of the area

harvested (in hectares) from the different rice crop fields in General Santos City. There

were observable alternating patterns of rising and falling each year. The highest harvest

rate has been obtained by 2015, amounting to 2255.48 hectares. In 2016, reports show

that it receded to 432.505 hectares equal to 1822.975 hectares. For the year of 2017,

the total area harvested accounted to 1998.932 hectares. Lastly, 2018 had a subtle

depreciated number of area equal to 1846.382 hectares.

The volume of production per Metric Ton (MT) had been slightly steady over the

past four years. For year 2015, the highest yield was garnered with a total of 9873.22

MT. The harvested area for 2016 has yielded 7071.102 MT missing a yield of over

2802.118 MT. The following year has recovered a yield equal to 8666.696 and was

exceeded by 169.315 MT in 2018 gaining a total of 8836.011 MT.

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