The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Sciences 21 (2018) 193–200

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Research Paper

Role of statistical remote sensing for Inland water quality parameters

prediction
Abdelmalik K.W.
Department of Geology, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University – Cairo, Egypt

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Understanding the statistical relations among the Advanced Space borne Thermal Emission and
Received 8 October 2016 Reflection Radiation (ASTER) data and observed water quality parameters, in order to develop a mathe-
Revised 5 December 2016 matical relation for the precise prediction of the missing data in a given area, is the main aim of the pre-
Accepted 10 December 2016
sent study. This should enable to establish a spatial distribution map for each parameter of water quality
Available online 29 December 2016
for the area. The method was applied to Qaroun Lake in the Fayoum depression of Egypt.
The water quality parameters obtained from ASTER data used in the present work are: Temperature,
Keywords:
Turbidity, Hydrogen ion concentration (pH), Salinity, Total Dissolved Solids (TDS), Electrical
Remote sensing
Regression
Conductivity (EC), Total alkalinity, Total Organic Carbon (TOC) and Ortho-phosphorus.
Inland water quality 18 water sample data were used in the study: 15 sample data for mathematical model construction,
ASTER giving the relation between the ASTER values and the water quality parameters, while 3 samples data
were used to test the obtained model.
The SPSS software of IBM was also used in the present research for the applied statistical analysis.
The analysis showed a significant correlation between the observed values and the remotely sensed
data with R2 > 0.94 and sig. < 0.01 in most cases. The calculated values resulting through the obtained
equation showed a high accuracy: Root mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 0.8 to 0.014 and
Standard Estimated Error (SEE) ranging from 0.9 to 0.0116.
ERDAS Imagine and ArcGIS packages were used for applying the obtained mathematical model and
spatial distribution map to the Qaroun Lake.
Ó 2016 National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-
nd/4.0/).

1. Introduction Recently many authors as Gholizadeh et al. (2016), Matthews

Water quality is an extremely important environmental factor
as it affects human beings and their economic activities (e.g.
Chen et al., 2009 and He et al., 2008). The major factor that affects
the physical aspect (such as color) of the water is the concentration
and distribution of fine suspended components and dissolved
matter (Clark et al., 1980).
The traditional methods of measuring and studying water qual-
ity parameters of water bodies are expensive, both in cost and
time, when compared to remote sensing techniques, especially if
they deal with large areas.
Many authors have studied parameters affecting water quality
by using remotely sensed data.
(2011) and Kutser (2009) and many others; provided a detailed
review of available types of remotely sensed data, which can be
useful and effective in water quality studies. Authors mainly clas-
sify these data into 3 categories based upon their spatial resolution.
Overall these categories are:
1. High resolution data: such as the data of IKONOS, Quick bird
(4 m) and the Worldview Series (0.5–2 m).
2. Moderate resolution data: such as EO-1 Hyperion, ALI (10–30 m),
Landsat series (15–120 m) and ASTER (15–90 m).
3. Regional/Global resolution data: such as NOAA-16 AVHRR
(1000 m), ATSR-1,2 (1000 m), terra MODIS (250-1000 m) and
seaWiFs (1130 m).

Broadly speaking many parameters have been considered by

using a remote sensing approach, such as: Physiochemical parame-
Peer review under responsibility of National Authority for Remote Sensing and
Space Sciences.
ters (pH, Temperature, EC, Salinity, TDS, TSS, Turbidity and Total
E-mail address: Karim.abdelmalik@gmail.com alkalinity), Organic parameters (Biochemical oxygen demand BOD,

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrs.2016.12.002
1110-9823/Ó 2016 National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
194 K.W. Abdelmalik / The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Sciences 21 (2018) 193–200
TOC, DOC, TIC) and Microbiological parameters (Total Colloform TC,
Cholorophyll Chl-a). Of course the relationship between the water
quality parameters and the radiance or reflection is affected by
changing in one or more of these parameters. Moreover, it also
affected by seasonal changing. So, any investigation deals with
mentioned relation must be addressed to particular season and
conditions.
Several authors have used and applied the regression statistical
techniques in order to estimate and calculate water quality param-
eters as Khattab and Merkel (2014), Guan (2009), Hirthle and
Rencz (2003), Coskun et al. (2001) and Choubey and
Subramanian (1990).
The main aim of the present study was to explore several algo-
rithms in order to determine the most suitable ones for the estima-
tion of temperature, Turbidity, potential Hydrogen ions (pH),
Electric Conductivity (EC), Total Dissolved Solids (TDS), Salinity,
Total alkalinity, Orthophosphorous, Total Organic Carbon (TOC),
for the Qaroun lake using the statistical approach and ASTER Data.
An additional goal was to map the water quality parameters by
using estimated ones instead of conventional methods.
2. Study area and general geology
The Fayoum is an enormous depression located in the north
eastern part of the Western Desert of Egypt, The Qaroun Lake occu-
pies the lowest part of it. Qaroun Lake is laying between latitudes
29° 250 & 29° 300 N and longitudes 30° 250 & 30° 500 E extending over
an area exceeding 200 km2. It has an elongated shape, about
42 km., east-west and is about 10 km. in width. Qaroun Lake was
declared a natural reserve by virtue of the Prime Minister decision
No. 348 of 1989, with an aim to protect and conserve the biological,
archaeological and geological diversity of the area.
The geology of the Fayoum area has attracted many authors as
Beadnell (1905), Said (1962), Tamer et al. (1975), Swedan (1986,
1992), Abd El Motaal (1989), Abdel Hafez (1991), Nabawy (1998),
El-Younsy et al. (1999), Azab (2001), Issawi et al. (2001) and
Kusky et al. (2011). According to these previous works, the Fayoum
depression occurs in a thick sedimentary series of Middle Eocene
to Quaternary age.
Most of joints and faults observed by Kusky, strike NW-SE
(Clysmic Trend) and E-W (Tethyan Trend).
3. Data and methodology
In the present study, both water samples and ASTER terra data
were used in order to develop and drive an accurate simple algo-
rithm to retrieve the water quality parameters for Qaroun Lake.
The sampling and water analysis were executed during May/
June 2007, based on the APHA (1992) in sampling and testing
methodology (Gad, 2009).
The current study uses water samples parameters of 18 loca-
tions representative to the Qaroun lake water body (Fig. 1). The
parameters of 15 samples were used for processing the regression
analysis to build up the equations expressing the relations
between the parameters and the ASTER readings, while the
remaining 3 samples were used for testing the accuracy of the
developed equations.
The remotely sensed image, used in the present study, were
those of ASTER Terra obtained from the US Geological Survey
(USGS) via Earth Explorer site (Earth explorer.usgs.gov). The used
scene were obtained with Path and Row 177/39 at an acquisition
data of 24/6/2007 with zero cloud coverage.
(Fig. 2) illustrates the flowchart of the process cycle for the pre-
sent work.
3.1. Remote sensing data preparation
3.1.1. Atmospheric correction
In any satellite imagery that observes the surface of the earth in
the visible/infrared regions of the electromagnetic spectrum, the
recorded signal contains two brightness types; the first due to
the actual reflectance from the surface while the second one is
due to the atmospheric effect and is considered as noise.
So, the atmospheric correction is an essential step of the image
processing chain. Therefore, to obtain accurate and precise quanti-
tative data using remote sensing, it is necessary to perform atmo-
spheric correction (Tyagi and Bhosle, 2011; Chander et al., 2009;
Liang et al., 2001; Lillesand et al., 2004).
In the current study the Aster (V/VNIR and SWIR) regions atmo-
spheric correction process was executed using the fast line-of-sight
atmosphere analyses of hypercubes (FLAASH) modules of ENVI 5.1,
while for the thermal (TIR) region, the thermal atmospheric correc-
tion of calibration utilities of the same software version was used.
3.1.2. Precisely mapping of water lines
In order to extract and map the water line, the Normalized Dif-
ference Water Index (NDWI) which was developed by McFeeters
(1996) was applied on the image. The output of the NDWI was
found to range between 1 and +1, the threshold is, thus, zero.
So, the water has positive values while non-water gets the negative
ones. The effect of wet soil in Qaroun Lake’s edge could be
neglected specially in the season of study. Therefore, the lake bor-
der line can be obtained by vectorization of the water/non-water
image. The raster data of the Qaroun Lake water body has been
subset by the water line final result shape file.
3.2. Statistical analysis
The correlation and regression analysis techniques are widely
used for studying and investigating the strength of the relationship
– if any – between two quantitative variables. The correlation anal-
ysis quantifies the strength of the relation between a variable pars
while the regression analysis develops the mathematical equation
which express such relation.
In the present study, SPSS software package of IBM was used for
executing both correlation and regression analyses in order to
investigate and study the relationship between scoped parameters
and remotely sensed data of the study area.
4. Results and discussion
4.1. Regression analysis
Various algorithms have been used by many authors to examine
characteristic relationships between remote sensed data and water
quality physiochemical, Organic and Microbiological parameters.
(Khattab and Merkel, 2014; Elsaadi et al., 2014; Yüzügüllü and
Aksoy, 2011; Coskun et al., 2008).
The present study includes the elaboration of regression analy-
sis algorithms to examine and use the relations between the ASTER
data reflectance bands and the water quality parameters of Qaroun
Lake. The parameters used in such analysis are: Temperature, Tur-
bidity, pH, Salinity, TDS, EC, Total alkalinity, TOC and
Orthophosphorus.
Statistically, the created equations and relations were chosen
according to three factors, which were: Adjusted Square Correction
Coefficient (R2: Which is the percentage of the response variable vari-
ation that explained by the model, the higher value the better fitting of
the model), Standard Error of Estimation (SEE: Standard Error of
Estimation, which measurers the accuracy of the model in prediction,
 K.W. Abdelmalik / The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Sciences 21 (2018) 193–200 195

Fig. 1. Location map of water samples.

Fig. 2. Work flowchart organizing and illustrating the processing cycle.

the lower the value the higher the accuracy) and significance or prob-
ability value (sig.: or p-value, which is primary output of statistical
tests which indicates the probability of observing error in prediction,
the lower the value the better the model ‘‘p” must less than 0.05).
The Statistical Package for Social Sciences version 20.0 (SPSS) of
IBM was used to execute the correlation studies as well as the
regression analysis and to calculate the mathematical parameters
of the developed relational equations of the reflectance values of
ASTER data and the water parameters (Tables 1 and 2).
The final results of the analysis shows a valid high correlation of
the obtained models with measured environmental parameters, as
most R2 were found to be >0.94, and most sig. were found to be
<0.01 and SEE indicates an extremely small expected error (0.9–
0.01).
The pH correlated with reflectance of SWIR (Khattab and
Merkel, 2014), Thus, it was found, in the present study, that pH
has a considerable correlation with band 9 (the longest SWIR band
in ASTER data). However, by examining the relation with band
ratio b9/b8, a still higher Correlation coefficient (=0.7) was found,
while the significance of the computed values was =0.004. The
most and highly relational parameters found was the Quadratic
(second order polynomial) relation (R2 = 0.95, SEE = 0.04 and sig.
< 0.001), All other relations have an R2 < 0.75 and sig. > 0.05.
The EC was highly correlated with bands b3 to b6 and b8 (cor-
relation coefficient > 0.9 and sig < 0.001) therefore, the selected
band ratios [(b4/b3) * b8] clearly highly correlated with EC values,
the best fit curve equation model was the quadratic model
(R2 = 0.995, SEE = 0.617 and sig < 0.001), the other models show a
good R2 values but high SEE values (up to 4.9).
Generally, the water salinity is significantly related with the
reflectance radiations within visible and near infrared regions
(Pegau et al., 1997). Statistically, it is strongly correlated with
ASTER bands b3 to b8 and it was extremely correlated with
selected band ratio [(b5/b3) * b7]. The best fit equation to repre-
sent the equation was the quadratic model (R2 = 0.985, SEE = 0.7
and sig. < 0.0001).
According to Duong (2012) and Wua et al. (2008), clear water
has more reflectance within the green band and it decreases in
the red as well as in the NIR bands. By examining the correlation
coefficient of ASTER bands with observed turbidity values, this
coefficient shows a strong value with bands b3, b4, b5, b6 and
b8. Moreover, it shows also a high value with band ratio
[(b3 * b2)/b1] (correlation coefficient 0.96). Statistically, the best
models illustrating the relation between turbidity values and the
selected band ratio were the quadratic equation (R2 = 0.998,
SEE = 0.95) and the growth equation (R2 = 0.75, SEE = 0.58). But
196 K.W. Abdelmalik / The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Sciences 21 (2018) 193–200

Table 1
The statistical parameters of the regression analysis for all studied models.

Water quality Independent Linear Logarithmic Inverse Quadratic Cubic Compound Power Growth
parameter 2 2 2 2 2 2
R SEE R SEE R2 SEE R SEE R SEE R SEE R SEE R2 SEE
(dependent)
pH Band 9/Band 8 0.692 0.117 0.733 0.109 0.771 0.101 0.951 0.049 0.943 0.051 0.690 0.014 0.731 0.013 0.690 0.014
EC (Band4/Band3) * Band8 0.903 2.808 0.818 3.840 0.702 4.920 0.996 0.617 0.995 0.645 0.895 0.127 0.807 0.172 0.895 0.127
Turb (Band3 * Band2)/Band1 0.908 6.497 0.878 7.487 0.841 8.544 0.998 0.956 0.998 0.833 0.722 0.584 0.681 0.626 0.752 0.584
TDS Band3 0.861 2.154 0.827 2.402 0.787 2.660 0.997 0.330 0.997 0.331 0.877 0.137 0.845 0.154 0.877 0.137
Salinity (Band5/Band3) * band7 0.780 2.815 0.681 3.391 0.570 3.939 0.985 0.744 0.987 0.687 0.780 0.199 0.679 0.240 0.780 0.199
temp 1/2 Band8  [(Band 11+Band13)/ 0.245 0.561 0.299 0.541 0.353 0.520 0.535 0.334 0.530 0.333 0.246 0.018 0.300 0.018 0.246 0.018
band10]
Alkalinity (b4/b5) + b6 0.726 0.026 0.673 0.028 0.603 0.031 0.822 0.023 0.822 0.022 0.643 0.091 0.597 0.097 0.643 0.091
Orthophosphorus Band 5 0.782 0.022 0.715 0.025 0.636 0.028 0.944 0.012 0.936 0.012 0.730 0.119 0.668 0.132 0.730 0.119
TOC Band 3 0.847 3.133 0.813 3.462 0.774 3.806 0.985 0.909 0.983 1.058 0.874 0.143 0.841 0.160 0.874 0.143

Table 2
The regression and testing analysis results of selected model for each parameter.

Water quality Equation Regression Testing

parameter
R2 RMSE SEE sign RMSE SEE
2
pH y = 10.083(band 9/Band 8) + 26.022(band 9/Band 8)  8.3195 0.9506 0.045 0.0488 0.0001 0.0810 0.0247
EC y = 0.1252[(Band4/Band3) * Band8]2 + 4.1531[(Band4/Band3) * Band8] + 10.527 0.9956 0.575 0.617 0.0001 0.8780 0.9000
Turb y = 0.4121[(Band3 * Band2)/Band1]2  31.74[(Band3 * Band2)/Band1] + 612.17 0.998 0.891 0.956 0.0001 0.9160 0.1290
TDS y = 0.1204(Band3)2 + 10.663(Band3)  207.21 0.9972 0.296 0.559 0.0001 0.3020 0.2850
Salinity y = 0.0967 [(Band5/Band3) * band7]2 + 4.4921[(Band5/Band3) * band7]  22.997 0.9857 0.693 0.7443 0.0001 0.0820 0.7520
temp y = 0.0584[(1/2) Band8  ((Band 11 + Band13)/band10)]2 + 1.9456[(1/2) Band8  ((Band 11 0.5347 0.426 0.3336 0.012 0.7296 0.2863
+ Band13)/band10)] + 15.443
Alkalinity y = 2E05[(b4/b5) + b6]3  0.0013[(b4/b5) + b6]2 + 0.0297[(b4/b5) + b6] + 0.0363 0.8217 0.117 0.0226 0.0001 0.1339 0.0251
Orthophosphorus y = 0.0006(b5)2  0.0388(b5) + 0.7684 0.944 0.014 0.0116 0.012 0.0117 0.001
TOC y = 0.1676 (b3)2 + 14.857 (b3)  289.86 0.9852 0.87 0.9092 0.012 0.5676 0.3266

by testing the two equations the results were RMSE = 0.9,
SEE = 0.12 and RMSE = 0.82, SEE = 0.68 respectively, so the quadra-
tic model was preferably applied (Table 2).
A clear correlation has been shown between TDS measured val-
ues and ASTER bands (band 3 to band 6 and band 8). Mostly the
higher correlation was with band 3 (correlation coefficient = 0.97).
By applying a regression analysis for the different models, the val-
ues of R2 raised in the quadratic, cubic, compound, power and
growth models (Table 1), but by testing the equations the best
model was found to be the quadratic one (RMSE = 0.302 and
SEE = 0.285)
Commonly, the mathematical combination of the Thermal
Infrared (TIR) bands (band 10 to band 14, in ASTER data) are gen-
erally used for estimating the water surface temperature (Wubet,
2003 and Matsunaga, 1996). Unfortunately, in the present study
the bands were found to be moderately correlated with the
observed temperature values (correlation coefficient just exceed-
ing 0.5) and the selected band ratio gives R2 = 0.54 and SEE = 0.33
in the quadratic model (Table 1). However, by applying and testing
the developed equation, the results were found to be RMSE = 0.426,
SEE = 0.333 and RMSE = 0.72, SEE = 0.286 respectively (Table 2),
which was considered as a good result for estimation.
The measured alkalinity has higher correlation with ASTER
bands b4, b5 and b6 (correlation coefficient = 0.92, 0.89 and 0.86
respectively). A regression analysis was applied for selected band
ratio [(b4 + b5)/b6] for all regression models. The result (Table 1)
shows the highest R2 value (0.822) and lowest SEE value (0.022)
for the cubic model. By applying and testing the resulting model
we obtained: RMSE = 0.117, SEE = 0.022 and RMSE = 0.133,
SEE = 0.025 respectively (Table 1).
According to Khattab and Merkel, 2014, Sridhar et al., 2009,
Bistani, 2009 and Alparslan et al., 2007, The phosphorous has
strong correlation with the reflectance within wavelength interval
1.6–2.36 lm which is covered by ASTER bands b4 through b9.
However, in the present study, Correlation of calculated concentra-
tion values of phosphorus from remote sensing data with analyti-
cal data shows higher correlation with bands b4, b5, b6, b7 and b8
in addition to ASTER TIR bands b13, b14. Moreover, the simplest
and highly precise results of regression analyses was found in
the quadratic model for b5, R2 = 0.944, SEE = 0.012 (Table 1).
By applying and testing the obtained equation, the
RMSE = 0.014, SEE = 0.0116 and RMSE = 0.0117, SEE = 0.001
respectively (Table 2).
Chang et al. (2014) indicated that the range 0.459–0.9 lm had
the highest contribution in determining the concentration of
TOC. Statistically, the highest correlation of TOC value was found
to be with band 3 (0.76–0.86 lm). Moreover, by applying and test-
ing the developed equation model, we found: RMSE = 0.87, SEE
0.909 and RMSE = 0.567, SEE = 0.326 respectively (Table 2), which
could be considered as a good result for the estimation of missing
data.
For further validation, fig. 3 illustrates the graphical relation
between the actually measured parameter and calculated one for
each studied water quality parameter. The R2 value greater than
0.95 for all plots except those for alkalinity (0.82) and temperature
(0.53) and RMSE value for all parameters were ranging between
0.014 up to 0.89.
4.2. Spatial distribution maps
The developed models and created equations for each water
quality parameter were applied on ASTER data in order to establish
a spatial distribution map for each studied parameter. Fig. 4 illus-
trates the produced maps for the nine parameters used.
The spatial distribution of estimated Temperature generally
shows an increase along the shore line (higher values at the north-
ern edge) and decrease of temperature toward the central part of
the lake body (Fig. 4a).
K.W. Abdelmalik / The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Sciences 21 (2018) 193–200 197

Fig. 3. Relational plot of the calculated water parameter values vs. the measured ones.
198 K.W. Abdelmalik / The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Sciences 21 (2018) 193–200

Fig. 4. Spatial distribution map for estimated water quality parameters.

 K.W. Abdelmalik / The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Sciences 21 (2018) 193–200
The higher values of pH values (up to 8.47) are found at the
northern part of the lake (Fig. 4b), decreasing towards the southern
side, especially at the outlets of drains (minimum value 7.5).
Fig. 4(c, d) clearly illustrates the same spatial distribution pat-
tern for both Salinity and TDS respectively. The concentration of
ions in the middle part of the water body may be the main reason
for this pattern. This is closely related to the distribution of EC
(Fig. 4e), as the maximum values are found in the middle of the
lake. This is due to ions mobility, whereas conductivity is also
affected by heavy metal ions released into water by acid drainage
(Gad, 2009), this is obvious, as recorded pH in this region shows
minimum values.
Alkalinity shows the same spatial distribution pattern of
Orthophosphorous (Fig. 4f, g), as they show mainly higher values
in the western region of the lake and minimum values at drain out-
lets, due to absence of buffering materials which neutralize the
slightly acidic inflow.
Orthophosphorous distribution in Qaroun Lake shows the same
pattern of distribution as Alkalinity, where it is found at the bor-
ders of the lake, where plants are conspicuous.
The increase of TOC (Fig. 4h), mainly at the western as well as at
the northern regions of the lake, may be attributed to planktonic
organisms and organic matter concentrations in open basin area
far from the drains.
In general the bulk of the lake has a very low turbidity (Fig. 4i),
except near the shore (up to 100 NTU) and intermediate values of
turbidity near drains outlets. This is due to the presence of total
suspended solids (TSS).
5. Conclusion
The present paper illustrates and proves the presence of signif-
icant empirical relations between ASTER data and observed water
quality parameters. The calculated parameters obtained from
ASTER reflectance bands enables an accurate prediction for these
parameters based on the mathematical equations derived through
regression analysis. Also, the current research discloses that the
future study investigating the effect of seasonal changing on the
radiance and/or reflectance values is a must, in order to be more
accurate and precise of absolute prediction.
The current study demonstrates that the use of the statistical
techniques discussed in this paper for establishing spatial distribu-
tion maps for significant environmental parameters in water bod-
ies should be a rapid and inexpensive convenient method to obtain
useful environmental data for the environmental sciences. It can be
used efficiently for the routine monitoring of lakes specially those
covering large geographic areas.
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