Proyecto de Titulacion Areas Verdes y Calidad de Vida

Conference Proceedings
of the
2nd International Conference on Sustainability, Human

Geography and Environment 2018
Kraków, Poland
28 November – 2 December 2018
Polo Centre of Sustainability

University of Gdansk
Sopot, Poland
2018
Polo Centre of Sustainability (PCS) and University of Gdansk (UG) COPYRIGHT NOTICE.
Copyright © 2018 by the Polo Centre of Sustainability and University of Gdansk Permission to make digital and hard
copies of part or all of this work for personal or academic class room use is granted without fee provided that copies
are not made and distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation
on this page. Copyrights for component of this work owned by others than PCS or UG must be honoured. Abstracting
with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, to republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior
specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from Polo Centre of Sustainability [pcs@polocentre.org].
Editor
Giuseppe T. Cirella
Conference Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Sustainability, Human Geography and Environment 2018
(ICSHGE18)
©2018 PCS Publishing, Co., Gdansk University Press

Sopot, Poland
All rights reserved.

Biblioteka Narodowa, serwis e-ISBN, Warsaw, Poland
ISBN 978-83-952699-1-2
© Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy, 2018

© University of Gdansk, Poland, 2018
© 2nd International Conference on Sustainability, Human Geography and Environment 2018, Poland, 2018
Polo Centre of Sustainability [www.polocentre.org]

University of Gdansk [www.ug.edu.pl]
2nd International Conference on Sustainability, Human Geography and Environment 2018 [www.icshge.org]
CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS OF THE 2ND INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SUSTAINABILITY, HUMAN GEOGRAPHY AND ENVIRONMENT 2018
Advisory Board, Head

Giuseppe T. Cirella
Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy
University of Gdansk, Sopot, Poland
Felix O. Iyalomhe
Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy Valle Holmlund
National Open University of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy
Advisory, Managerial Board Antonio Mercuri

Barbara Pawłowska Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy
University of Gdansk, Poland
Michele Matejka
Marcin Wołek Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy
City of Gdynia, Poland
University of Gdansk, Poland Nikita O. Bodnar
Monika Bąk
University of Gdansk, Poland Luciano Sangiovanni
Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova, Moldova
Przemysław Borkowski, Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy
Jang Ook Kim Asta Kondrakeviciute

Digital Seoul Culture Arts University, Korea Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy
Dimitris Andreopoulos Allan Bounail

Ministry of Education, Lifelong Learning and Religious Affairs, Greece Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy
Mateusz Rogucki Luigi Borruso

Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy
Anna Pohlak
External Committee | Scientific Research
Egle Museikyte-Makarewicz Gökçen Firdevs Yücel Caymaz
University of Gdansk, Poland İstanbul Aydın University, Turkey
Pavla Srstková Pouya Samani

Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy INEGI, University of Porto, Portugal
Hriday Ch. Sarma Marina P. Perez

Center for South-Caucasus-South Asia Business Development, India Indoamerican Technological University, Equador
Stephen M. Treacy Binita Shah

Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy National Institute of Industrial Engineering, India
Milan Trnka Hen Friman
Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy Holon Institute of Technology, Israel
Tanja Labat Narendra K. Tyagi

Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy Central Soil Salinity Research Institute Karnal, India
Anna Bialon Aurobindo Ogra

Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy University of Johannesburg, South Africa
Technical Programme Committee M. M. Sheikh

Rathana Ly Government Lohia PG College, MGS University, India
Life University, Cambodia
Somnath Ghosal
Rural Development Centre, India
Natalia A. Matecka
R. S. Ajin
Kerala State Disaster Management Authority, India
Andrei Bondar
Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy Soheil Shayegh
FEEM, Italy
Alessio Russo
Peoples' Friendship University of Russia, Russia Sayan Bhattacharya
Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy Nalanda University, India
ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 ii ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

icshge.org
Table of Contents
Chapter 1. Sustainability . . . . 1
Chapter 2. Human Geography . . . 87
Chapter 3. Environment . . . . 151
Chapter 4. Interdisciplinary Societal Studies 236
Chapter 5. Abstracts . . . . . 329
Chapter 6. Poster Papers . . . . 351
Chapter 7. International Journal of Human

Geography and Environmental
Studies . . . . . 365
Chapter 8. International Journal of

Sustainability Science and
Studies . . . . . 459
ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 iii ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

icshge.org
Chapter 1. Sustainability 1
How to reduce low-emission in a small town? Research for the use of local renewable energy sources 2
Szulc, A., and Tomaszewska, B.
Towards an Adaptive Knowledge Sharing in Urban Disaster Risk Reduction and Management 12
Mariano, B.J.
Classifying Urban Climate Zones (UCZs) based on Spatial Statistical Analyses 20

Lee, D., and Oh, K.
Understanding the Disaster Risk by Analysing Historical Situations: Case Study Aceh Tsunami and Haiti Earthquake 27
Mustofa, I.
Designing a model to display the relation between social vulnerability and anthropogenic risk of wildfires in Galicia, Spain 35
Diego, J. de, Rúa, A., and Fernández, M.
Internet based survey on energy use and evaluation, including household machinery and climate impacts 45
Farkas, A., and Mika, J.
Economic Valuation of the Reef Attributes of Cozumel Island 53

Lara-Pulido, J.A., Mojica, Á., Bruner, A., Simon, C., Vázquez-Lavin, F., Guevara-Sanginés, A., and Infanzón, M.J.
Systemic and SMART approach as an instrument for dealing with brownfields 62

Turečková, K., and Nevima, J.
Developing the Urban Thermal Environment Management and Planning (UTEMP) System to Support Urban Planning 68
and Design Lee, D., and Oh, K.
Comparison of land-use change models for Mae Sot special economic zone in Tak province 78
Chavanavesskul, S.
Chapter 2. Human Geography 87

Urban area and population change in a new autonomous city in Indonesia: Evidence Banjar Municipality 88
Supriyadi, A., Wang, T., Chu, S., Ma, T., and Shaumirahman, R.G.
Understanding Information Processing and Consumer Preferences Towards Eco-Friendly Brands 98

Olasiuk, H., and Bhardwaj, U.
Gas exchange parameters for ornamental species of the genus Peperomia Ruitz et Pav., grown in a vertical garden under 108
different nutrient conditions Shahanova, M.B., Anev, S., and Tzvetkova, N.P.
Urban Sustainability Indices to Green Infrastructure 114

Pérez- Pérez, M.
Construction of ‘living’ snow fences along highways in Bulgaria 122

Lazarov, M., and Shahanov, V.
Green infrastructure potential evaluation using UAS and optical imagery indices 125
Perc, M.N.
Securitizing Northern Africa – Europe’s Vision of a new Empire? 128

Cserkits, M.
Attracting Tourists to the Alley: Subaltern Urbanism in Kampung Maspati, Surabaya 135
Tauran, T.
Trends in Population Migration in Post-Communist Countries: Case Study of the Czech Republic 142
Novák, V., and Palcrová, Š.
Chapter 3. Environment 151
Economic Role of Forest on Forest Dwellers’ Livelihood in the Central Zagros Forests of Iran 152
Mahmoudi, B.
Urban heat island in maritime Southeast Asia: A systematic review 157

Cortes, A.C.
Planning Sustainable Agriculture in Coastal Areas in Turkey with Tourism Function 167
Kahraman, C.
Flooding in Benin City, Nigeria 175

Iyalomhe, F.O., and Cirella, G.T.
The Effects of Organic Products on Buying Behavior of Parent Families: A Local Sample from Turkey 180
Eroğlu Pektaş, G.Ö., and Karadeniz, M.
ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 iv ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

icshge.org
Honey Guacamole Lara-Pulido, J.A., Guevara-Sanginés, A., 187

Torres-Rojo, J.M., Núñez-Hernández, J.M., Riojas, J., Pérez-Cirera, V., Breceda, K., Blas, D.E.-DE, and Barragán. M.J.
Identifying Spatial Measures to Improve Urban Thermal Comfort 194

Park, B., Oh, K., and Suh, J.
Monitoring the flowering period and number of inflorescences of Bituminaria bituminosa (L.) C.H.Stirt. grown considering 206
Maria Thun’s calendar, used in the biodynamic farming Kaydjieva, K.N., and Shahanova, M.B.
A Framework for Assessing the Environmentally Sustainable and Resilience Performance of Domestic Building Materials 209
in Saudi Arabia Almulhim, M.S., Hunt, D.V.L., and Rogers, C.D.F.
Smallholder farmers’ perception of and adaptation strategies for climate change: Associations with observed climate 215
variability and a calculated drought index Zhang, Q., and Tang, H.
Shelterbelts planning in agricultural territories in Bulgaria 229

Shahanov, V.M.
Chapter 4. Interdisciplinary Societal Studies 236
Sociocultural Carrying Capacity: A methodological proposal to measure the impact of population growth in Rapa Nui 237
Ángel, P.
Sustainability, Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Technologies by Enjoyable Way for Children of the Next 245
Generation Friman, H., Sitbon, Y., Banner, I., and Einav, I.
Paris Agreement in Central Europe – The Case of the Visegrad Group (V4) 251
Tucki, K., Botwińska, K., Bączyk, A., and Wielewska, I.
Adaptive re-use in environmentally sustainable interior design model 260

Celadyn, M.
Reconstruction Paleogeomorphological map of The Nile River in Upper Egypt by using some geomorphological and 269
geoarchaeological indicators Torab, M.
Creating an effective cohesion policy for Europe 2020 283

Paczoski, A., and Cirella, G.T.
Current literature and research opportunities in executive compensation: Evidence from a developing economy 288
Matemane, R.
Gender mainstreaming in waste education programs: A conceptual framework 293

dos Muchangos, L.S. and Vaughter, P.
The role of the international ecological network, Emerald, in Western Balkans protected areas – situation, cooperation and 300
perspectives Požar, T.
Stakeholder Collaboration on Sustainable Water Management in the Hotel Sector: A Network Analysis of Singapore 310
Hu, X., Lovelock, B., Ying, T., and Mager, S.
Do socio-demographic characteristics in waste management matter? Case study of the production of recyclables in the 321
Czech Republic Rybová, K.
Chapter 5. Abstracts 329

Forest Biodiversity, Ecological Attitudes, and Spiritual Praxis: The Future of Buddhist Temples as Forest Management 330
Actors in Japan Hutchins, A.G.
Does the intensively cultivated European landscape need trees or agroforestry? 330
Krčmářová, J.
Selected aspects of the impact of dairy plants on the environment of Poland 330
Tucki, K., Botwińska, K., Bączyk, A., and Wielewska, I.
Systemic and SMART approach as an instrument for dealing with brownfields 331
Bergamini, K.
Effect of selenium on uptake and translocation of arsenic in rice seedlings (Oryza sativa L.) 331
Camara, A.Y., Wan, Y., Yu, Y., Qi, W., and Li, H.
The Importance of Fair Trade and Organic Labels in Sustainable Fashion Consumption 332
Arslan, L.
Sustainability of Critical Infrastructures: Food Security in Germany 332

Schuchardt, A., Hartmann, J., Peperhove, R., and Gerhold, L.
Sludge management quality 332

Gebreeyessus, G.D.
ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 v ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

icshge.org
Bringing Science to the Real World: The Forest Act in São Paulo State, Brazil 333
Brites, A.D.
Using Photosynthetic Microbial Desalination Cells to simultaneously pre-treat COD and high salt concentrations in landfill 333
leachate Ewusi-Mensah, D.
Promoting Changes in Cropping Pattern and Crop Diversification for Sustainable Agricultural Growth in West Bengal, 333
India Pani, A., and Mishra, P.
Mapping the politics of Urban Night Landscape: Spatialization of women and their mobility in Delhi 334
Agarwal, A.
Human-Environment Relationships in Modern and Postmodern Geography 334

Kabir, A.
Fostering Human Centered Design (HCD) approach for technology development and commercialization for bottom of the 335
pyramid (BOP) clients Deepak, K., and Conor, R.F.
Household Cooking Fuel Use in Rural Sikkim: Its Determinants, Issues and Challenges 335
Subba, D.
New Silk Road: Ukraine 336

Pavlik, D.A.
Energy Poverty Among Rural Households in Nigeria: What Can Be Done? 336
Nduka, E., Grosskopf, B., and Chakravarty, S.
Fundamentals Physics Governing Heat Transfer in Improve Biomass Stove 337

Siwe, E.N., and Njomo, D.
A Review on Environmental Selenium Issues 337

Gebreeyessus, G.D., and Zewge, F.
A Note on the Area of Paddy Field in Jakarta, Indonesia 337

Anggrahita, H., Guswandi, Purwanto, S.A., and Susilowati, M.
Implications of demographic transition for productive absorption of labour force: The case of Bangladesh 338
Rahman, M.Z., and Titumir, R.A.M.
Harmonizing the Water- Energy- Food Nexus in Haryana: An Exploration of Technology and Policy Options 338
Tyagi, N.K., and Joshi, P.K.
The Existence of Modified Environmental Curve for Gender Inequality in MENA Economies: Panel data model 339
Sileem, H.H.M.
The Question of the “Death” of Small Farmers in Jakarta, Indonesia 339

Anggrahita, H., Purwanto, S.A., Guswandi, and Susilowati, M.
Psychological Assessment of the Influence of Contact with Mountain Landscape Environment on Directed Attention and 339
Stress Ojobo, H., Shammang, K.J., Kagai1, K.J., and Kange, L.O.
The Impact of Human Activities and Climate Changes on the Vulnerability and Sustainability of Water Resources in the 340
Eastern Part of Romania Minea, I.
Mapping of West Siberian arctic wetland complexes using Landsat imagery: Implications for methane emissions 340
Terentieva, I.E., Sabrekov, A.F., Glagolev, M.V., and Maksyutov, S.
Creating a Sustainable Green Planet (SGP) by Generating Solar Bio-Energy from Wastewater and Waste? 341
Manglani, J.
Study of the spatial and landscape structure of the sands and gravels exploitation region in the context of adaptation to 341
climate change Pawełczyk, K.
The Challenges of Rearing Insects for Food within the UK 341

Suckling, J., and Druckman, A.
Rainfall Variability Study in Auchi, Edo State, Nigeria 342

Ukhurebor, K.E.
Analytical Study of the Relationship between Man and the Environment with Ethical and Philosophical Approach 342
Vatandoost, M.
Social impacts that the degradation of salt lakes has on local communities 342
Zenko, M.
Determination of 238U, 232Th and 40K in Selected Borehole Rock Samples in Abuja, Nigeria, using Neutron Activation 343
Analysis and its Radiological Risk on Drillers Omeje, M., et al.
The Social Institution and Site of ‘Balti Lchangra’ 343

Zakir, Z.H.
ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 vi ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

icshge.org
Importance of Vegetable Farming in Improving Economic and Nutritional Status of Farmers in the region of Smallholding 343
agriculture; an Evidence from Malda District of West Bengal, India Ali, M.R.
Do firms innovate when they can relocate? Evidence from the steel industry 344
Valacchi, G.
Participation Cost and Value: Between Equity and Efficiency in Multilevel Governance (Case Study: Indonesian National 344
Empowerment Program Policy Document Analysis) Anggraeni, M.
GIS: A tool for monitoring air pollution and implementing mitigation measures for sensitive areas in Kuwait 345
Al-Mutairi, N.
Evaluating the Indoor Air Quality in Healthcare Facilities: A case study at the Dental Clinic of Eskisehir Osmangazi 345
University Alptekin, O., and Güçyeter, B.
Impact of Tactile Maps on the Geo-Spatial Abilities of the Visually Impaired Persons in Nigeria 346
Irabor, M.O.
Low Carbon Development Efficiencies of OECD Countries 346

Alptekin, N.
Nonlinear area-to-point regression kriging for spatial-temporal mapping of malaria risk 346
Truong, P.N.
Environmental Governance and Pro-environmental Behaviour Change in Vietnam’s Marine Protected Area 347
Pham, N.
Degradation of a textile dye by photocatalysis, electro-oxidation and their coupling 347

Saaidia, S., Barbari, K., Allat, L., Djemel, A., Benredjem, Z., and Delimi, R.
Urban Agriculture in Jakarta (Indonesia): Some ethnographic and spatial analysis perspectives 347
Purwanto, S.A., Anggrahita, H., Susilowati, M., and Guswandi
A Buddhist Perspective on Global Warming-Our Irresistible Fate? 348

Sraman, S.
Regional Variations in Manufacturing Productivity in India 348

Maiti, A.
Culture and Knowledge of Environmental Sustainability 348

Babazadeh, V.
GPS Application on Agriculture Towards Zero Hunger for Sustainable Development in Africa 349
Okosun, O.S.
The Effect of Mt. Agung Volcanic Aerosol to Global Warming Based on Analysis of Temperature and e-Folding Time 349
Diana, S., Aprilia, J., and Widyariestha, M.
Mobility delayed is mobility denied: Women’s life opportunities at stake due to poor Urban Transport 349
Iqbal, S.
Removal of heavy metals by continuous electropermutation 350

Mehellou, A., Delimi, R., Benredjem, Z., Samia, S., and Innocent, C.
351
Chapter 6. Poster Papers
Urban ventilation and mortality in Hong Kong 352
Goggins, W., Wang, P., Ren, C., Lau, K., and Chan, E.
Sustainable practices and the use of personal protective equipment on rural properties producing tobacco Pires. V., 352
Nassinhack, V., Fantinel, R., Lhamby, A., and Moraes, B.
Visual configurations of flower compositions in urban environment 353

Petrova, V.T., and Shahanova, M.B.
How women of fertile age understand the notion of “family” Case study: Bucharest, Romania Preda, M., Mareci, A., 355
Tudoricu, A., Taloş, A-M., Elena, B., Vijulie, I., and Lequeux, A-I.D.
Analysis of the disposal of packaging of agrochemicals in the municipality of São Gabriel/RS according to CONAMA 356
Resolution 465/2014 Pires, V., Sucky, A., Borba, L., Lhamby, A., and Moraes, B.
Competitiveness through renewable energies in the rice industrialization process 356

Silva, M., Borges, D., Souza, A., Pires, V., and Lhambi, A.
Discussion of the practices of environmental management in the rice sector in a socio-environmental perspective 357
Borges, D., Silva, M., Souza, A., Pires, V., and Lhambi, A.
Impact of an abandoned Coal Mine on groundwater chemical features (S. Pedro da Cova, N Portugal) 358
Mansilha, C., Melo, A., Ribeiro, J., Flores. D., Queirós, M., and Marques, J.E.
ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 vii ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

icshge.org
Pastoralists’ perception of and adaptation strategies for climate change: Associations with observed climate variability 359
Zhang, Q.
Analysing deprivation and its consequences on population health in special regions: Case study on the Biosphere Reserve of 360
the Danube Delta Mareci, A., Taloş, A-M., Preda, M., and Vijulie, I.
Evaluating the effect of mixed couples on residential segregation of foreign groups in Italy: First evidences from a regional 361
study case Benassi, F.,and Naccarato, A.
Determinants of employment in the Northern Cape? 362

Kleinsmith, D., Guqa, A., and Motoma, P.
Possibilities for Artificial Breeding of the Parnassius apollo L. (Apollo Butterfly) on Sedum maximum (L.) Suter and Sedum 363
album L. in a Park Environment Namliev, V., Marinov, Y., and Kabatliyska, Z.
3
Chapter 7. International Journal of Human Geography and Environmental Studies, SI 2 365
Synchronizing Agriculture Trading Regulation and Program in Indonesia – Case Study: Agriculture Trading 368
Regulation of Subang Regency Purwanegara, M.S., Kusumawati, N., Ekawati, R.H., and Hudrasyah, H.
Leap-Frogging to Renewable Energy Regime in West Africa: Arguing for a Community-led Initiative 381
Khaleel, A.G., and Chakrabarti, M.
Global Voice for Survival: An Ecosystemic Approach for the Environment and the Quality of Life 396
Pilon, A.F.
How efficient is urban land speculation? 408

Gemeda, B.S.
Dilemmas for Zanzibar: Energy, Economy and Environment 419

Juma, S.A.
Development of a multiple risks measurement framework for urban resilience 430

Ebisudani, M., dos Muchangos, L.S., and Cortes, A.C.
A GIS based Fire Station Site Selection using Network Analysis and Set Covering Location Problem (Case study: 433
Tehran, Iran) Davoodi, M., and Mesgari, M.S.
Prospects and Problems of Pirate Public Inter-City Transport Services in Lokoja, Kogi State 437
Adetunji, M.A.
Sustainable development 442

Rezaei, N.
Modern practices of human body design: Pilot study – regional aspect 448
Merenkov, A., Antonova, N., and Purgina, E.
Sustainable land reforms as a comprehensive migration management agenda: A perspective of social 455
inclusion in postcolonial Africa Mwangi, S.M.
5
Chapter 8. International Journal of Sustainability Science and Studies, SI 2 459
Polluting Emissions and GDP: Decoupling Evidence from Brazilian States 462
Jalles, J.T.
Sustainability and Sectoral Stability in Africa’s Natural Resources Utilization 476

Estimation of production and rate of consumerism for electronic wastes of Arak City for prospecting purposes 488
and policies for these wastes Aghmashhadi, A.H., and Zahedi, S.
Treatment of Uranium and Heavy Metals on Soil and in Groundwater 495

Choi, J.
Social Networks of Student-Migrants: Case of Chinese Students at the Ural Federal University, Russia 499
Antonova, N., and Purgina, E.
Time series dynamics of precipitation patterns in four major urban cities in sub-Saharan Africa: Persistence, seasonality 504
and long memory Awe, O.O., and Gil-Alana, L.A.
Creation of maps of extreme weather events under the conditions of climate change 509
Romanov, S.L., Chernoukha, B.N., and Agaronova S.I.
Analysis of degradation kinetics of Naphthalene and Acenaphthene on industrial sludge of lubricant refinery 512
by anaerobic degradation Sabetifard, S.H., Kazemi Moayed, H., and Daneshfar, M.A.
Weather Risk and Off-Farm Labor Supply of Smallholder Farm Households in Developing Countries 517
Gansonré, S.
ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 viii ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

icshge.org
Legislation, Resources and Rights: A Case Study of Forest Rights in India 530
Patel, T., Sharma, A.R., and Tripathi, A.
Analysis of Sound Absorption Coefficient (Case Study: Gypsum panel, gypsum-arenga pinnata fibre, arenga 539
pinnata fibre-gypsum and foamed concrete- arenga pinnata fibre) Fuady, Z., Ismail, Fauzi, and Zulfian
Applying United Nations Sustainable Development Goals at the Foreign Languages Centre of the University 551
of Gdansk Swebocka, A.
ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 ix ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

icshge.org
Chapter 1.
ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 1 ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

icshge.org
How to reduce low-emission in a small town? Research for the use of

local renewable energy sources
Szulc, A.,* and Tomaszewska, B.
AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Geology, Geophysics and Environmental Protection, Krakow, Poland;
*
aszulc@agh.edu.pl
Abstract—Most of small cities in the world face the problem of poor air quality and exceeding the limit values of pollutant
concentrations in the air – especially in the winter period. Fundamentally, in Poland the basis of the problem refers to the
pollutant emission from households. It arises due to the combustion of poor quality solid fuels in outdated and inefficient
heating systems. Besides, this phenomenon is compounded by bad urban space planning, land surface topography, road
transport and in extreme cases waste combustions. The negative externalities generated by low-emission such as: decline
quality of life, increase in the number of morbidities, destruction of natural environment and infrastructure and economic
consequences directly affect local communities. Therefore, an important issue is to develop and introduce the most suitable
strategies, adapted to the needs and possibilities of local government. The primary objective of the article is to present the
functional scheme of solutions based on local renewable energy sources which contribute to reduction of pollutant emission
and improvement of the air quality in the area of small towns. The analysis has focused on science-driven research oriented
on the recognition and indication of the potential of three different types of renewable energy sources: wind energy, solar
energy, low-temperature geothermal energy. It should be noted that the fast-progressing urbanization process requires
appropriate management of local resources and creating new opportunities for regional sustainability.
Keywords—air quality, local renewable energy sources, low-emission, small town
I. INTRODUCTION
I N the recent years, the issue of air pollution has become the key element of the discussion both in terms of environmental
and social aspects, let alone the economic ones. Air pollution has significant effects on ecosystems, fauna, plants, forests,
the quality of water and soil etc. Many papers present results regarding the negative impact of air pollution on human
health (Pope et al., 2015; Mishra, 2017; Logan, 1953; Landrigan, 2017; WHO, 2006,2013; Brook et al., 2010) The existing
studies indicate that pollutants, especially particular matter (PM), increase the risk of cardiovascular diseases, as well as stroke,
respiratory diseases and cancer. The World Health Statistics form 2018, presented by the World Health Organization (WHO),
show that more than 90% of the world’s population in 2016 exposed to poor air quality do not meet the WHO standards.
Moreover, the outdoor air pollution caused approximately 4.2 million deaths all over the world in 2016 (WHO, 2018). It is
estimated that the economic costs of the impact of air pollution on health in 2010 were: 1.5 trillion USD in WHO European
Region and 102 thousand USD in Poland (WHO Regional Office for Europe and OECD, 2015).
Poland has been struggling with the problem of exceedance the limit values of air pollution such as particulate matter
(PM10, PM2.5) and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) for several years. The recent data presented by WHO confirmed poor air quality in
Poland as 36 out of 50 most polluted European cities are Polish ones. The remaining cities are located in Bulgaria (Vidin and
Dimitrovgrad – the two most polluted cities in Europe), Czech Republic and Italy. However, due to the regulations
implemented by the European Union, the industry and conventional energy sector significantly reduced the amount of
pollutants emitted to the air in recent years (European Parliament and Council, 2010). Currently, the main causes of poor air
quality are outdated and inefficient heating installations based on solid fuels, commonly used in households. The problem of
poor air quality is observed both in urban and rural areas. Therefore, the use of renewable energy sources is one of the solutions
aiming to improve air quality in Poland.
II. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE RESEARCH FIELD

A. Descriptions of the health resort municipality
Rabka-Zdrój is a small town located in 49°37'N latitudes and 19°58'E longitudes, situated in Southern part of Poland. A
characteristic feature of the area is its location in the Rabczańska Valley, surrounded on three sides by mountain ranges (Gorce,
Beskid Wyspowy) with the heights of 600-1000 m a.s.l. The total area of the town covers 37 km2, while the total area of the
urban-rural municipality is 69 km2. In 1967 the town was granted the status of a health resort. In accordance with the applicable
law (Marshal of the Polish Parliament, 2017), municipality which has been granted such a status shall meet the following
conditions:
− possess the deposits of natural healing materials with confirmed medicinal properties,
− have a climate with proven healing properties,
− in its area should be establishments and facilities for health-resort treatment,
− meet the environmental requirements set out in the environmental protection regulations,
− have technical infrastructure in the field of water and sewage management, energy, road transport, and also conduct
waste management.
In addition, the municipality which has received the status of health resort is required to prepare the Health Resort Report, the
purpose of which is to confirm the requirements set for health resorts. This document should be prepared at least once every
10 years and presented to the Minister of Health. In health resort towns, in order to ensure the protection of natural healing
raw materials and the healing properties of climate, health resort protection zones are demarcated. According to the health

icshge.org
resort statute of Rabka-Zdrój, three aforementioned zones have been demarcated (Marshal of the Polish Parliament, 2017; City
Council of Rabka-Zdrój, 2013):
1) zone “A” (share of green areas ≤ 65%) – with the area of 168.1 ha, which is part of the town area. Within the zone,
the activity of health resort facilities is run, with the use of devices intended for health resort treatment. In addition,
it is forbidden to locate, among others, industrial plants, single-family and multi-family residential buildings,
motorways and expressways, solid and liquid waste landfills, agricultural activities and others.
2) zone “B” (share of green areas ≤ 50%) – the area of 718.6 ha, part of the town area, which includes the areas adjacent
to zone A. In the zone it is prohibited to include surface parking lots with parking spaces above 50, construct petrol
stations closer than 500m from the A zone boundary, commercial facilities with a usable area of more than 400m2,
felling of forest and park trees, etc.
3) zone “C” (share of green areas ≤ 45%) – with the area of 2,779.3 ha, it covers areas adjacent to zone B and its external
boundary is the administrative boundary of the town. No industrial facilities may be established within the zone,
mineral resources other than natural medicinal raw materials are not allowed to be obtained, and activities adversely
affecting the healing properties of the climate and physiography of the health resort are prohibited.
B. Climatic conditions
According to the Health Resort Report developed in 2009, Rabka-Zdrój has a climate with proven healing properties
(Walkowiak et al., 2009). The town meets the standards set by the Regulation of the Minister of Health (2006) for climate
parameters with therapeutic properties. The total number of hours with the sun during the year is 1645h. The limit values for
the number of days with precipitation and fog are not exceeded and amount to respectively: 179 days, 37 days (period Oct-
Mar) and 29 days (period Apr-Sep) (Table 1). In addition, the regulation indicates climate features that may adversely affect
the human body and should rarely occur in health resort areas. These features include long periods of cloudy weather, too little
or too high relative humidity of the air, poor ventilation of the area, frequent occurrence of: high and low temperatures, days
with high wind speed, storms etc.
TABLE I
PARAMETERS OF CLIMATE WITH HEALING PROPERTIES [13,14]
Criterion Values determined by the Minister of Health Values for Rabka-Zdrój
Number of hours with the sun during the year ≥ 1500 hours 1645 hours
Number of days with precipitation (≥0,1 mm) ≤ 183 days 179 days
Number of days with fog:
1) Period: October-March ≤ 50 days 37 days
2) Period: April-September ≤ 15 days 29 days
The average annual air temperature varies between 6-8°C. The average precipitation during the year reaches the level between
630-1100 mm (Matuszko and Matuszko, 2014). The occurrence of a natural mountain barrier protects the health resort against
strong winds. It increases, however, the occurrence of atmospheric silence and negatively affects the ventilation of the town.
The average annual wind speed is 1.5 m/s. It should be emphasized that the local climatic conditions of the health resort are
affected by the variation in altitude and terrain.
C. Air quality
One of the most important factors conditioning the healing properties of the climate is the sanitary state of the air. Defining
the phenomenon of low emission is the basis for further considerations. Low emission means emission of pollutants coming
from emitters not exceeding 40 m in height. The main reason for the low emission is the combustion of poor quality solid fuels
in inefficient heating devices (Graboś et al., 2014; Dzikuć, 2017; Kaczmarczyk, 2015,2017). Low emission of pollutants from
coal combustion is characteristic for the municipal-living sector.
The inventory of pollutant emissions run under the Air Quality Plan in the Małopolska Region showed that the main type
of heating systems used in the urban area of Rabka-Zdrój is gas heating (46.8%) and solid fuel heating (45.8%) (Figure 1)
(Lochno et al., 2017). However, the municipality rural area does not possess a gas network, therefore a much larger share of
solid fuel boilers is assumed. In addition, the data presented in the Low-Emission Economy Plan indicate the problem of
pollutant emissions beyond the heating season. This is due to the structure of hot water preparation. In most cases, it is a system
associated with a central heating installation (43%) (Figure 2). Renewable energy sources (solar collectors) for the preparation
of domestic hot water are used only in 4% (Godziek and Sokulska, 2017).
In Poland, monitoring of air quality is conducted as part of the State Environmental Monitoring. The entity responsible
for running measurements and assessing the state of air quality is the Chief Inspectorate of Environmental Protection (CIEP)
together with its voivodeship delegations, Regional Inspectorates for Environmental Protection (RIEP). In 2017, a state air
monitoring station (manual station) was installed in the town of Rabka-Zdrój. The content of PM10 and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP)
in the air was determined using the gravimetric (reference) method described in Directive of the European Parliament and of
the Council of 21 May 2008 on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe (2008) and dedicated standards: Ambient air –
Standard gravimetric measuring method for determination of PM10 or PM2.5 mass concentrations of particulate matter (Polish
Standardization Committee, 2014) and Air quality – Standard method for determining the concentration of benzo(a)pyrene in
ambient air (Polish Standardization Committee, 2011). According to the data presented in Figure 3, the health resort has a
problem with exceeding the daily limit value of PM10 (50 μg/m3) in the period from October to March. During the year, 66
days exceeding the daily limit value for PM10 were recorded, with 35 days allowed by the EU. The highest daily concentration
of BaP in the health resort was about 35 ng/m3 (Figure 4). The limit value of BaP in the air during the year was exceeded eight
times.

icshge.org
solid fuel heating 7.2% combined with central heating system

oil heating 45.8% renewable energy
coal 22%
gas heating
electric 43%
electric heating
gas
15%
46.8%
0.2%
16% 4%
Figure 1. Types of heating systems in Rabka-Zdrój (Lochno et al., 2017). Figure 2. Types of energy sources used for preparing domestic hot water
(Godziek and Sokulska, 2017).
[µg/m3] concentration of PM10 in 2017 EU daily limit value concentration of BaP in 2017 EU annual limit value
[ng/m3]
200 average annual concentration of BaP
40
180
35
160
30
140
120 25
100 20
80 15
60
10
40
5
20
0 0
Figure 3. Daily concentration of PM10 in 2017 (RIEP, 2018). Figure 4. Annual and daily concentration of BaP in 2017 (RIEP, 2018).
In addition to the data presented, the issue of low emission in the area of the health resort was also confirmed by the site
inspection. The occurrence of low emission in the town is particularly felt during the winter. However, the phenomenon can
also be observed in the case of increased tourist traffic during the summer – preparation of large amount of domestic hot water
in central heating installations (Figure 5).
Figure 5. Material from site inspection: a) 20.01.2018 9:50 a.m.; b) 27.01.2018 9:50 a.m.; c) 29.07.2018 9:40 a.m.; d) 28.07.2018 19:30 p.m.

icshge.org
III. MATERIAL AND METHODS

The assessment of the possibility of using local resources of renewable sources to reduce low emission has been divided
into three basic elements:
A. Investigation of wind energy potential
The activities aimed at defining wind energy resources are run by means of installation of the constant monitoring of wind
speed and direction. The measuring devices were mounted on one of the health resort facilities located in the "A" zone of
health resort protection. Gathering of data related to local conditions of wind energy potential was planned for a 12-month
period. In addition, the archival data from the meteorological station belonging to the Institute of Meteorology and Water
Management – National Research Institute (IMWM-NRI) were obtained. Ground measurement station was located in the urban
area of Rabka-Zdrój in the years 1991-2012. The verification of own measurement data will be conducted in the relation to the
IMWM-NRI station in order to determine the correctness of the obtained results. The frequency of occurrence of individual
wind speeds as well as their hourly and percentage share during the year will be characterized. These parameters pose an
important element in the total assessment of wind energy potential and the possibility of using home wind turbines.
B. Investigation of solar energy potential
The solar energy potential investigation will be conducted by monitoring the values of solar radiation flux density. As
mentioned in point 1) the measuring device was located on one of the health resort facilities located in the "A" zone of health-
resort protection. It is assumed that the monitoring of the indicated parameter will cover at least one year. The installed sensor
records the data of the total solar irradiance on the horizontal plane. IMWM-NRI has not run the measurement of the total solar
irradiance during the operation of the weather station in Rabka-Zdrój. The nearest solar energy monitoring station is situated
in Zakopane located about 43 km away from the research area. However, it is characterized by similar terrain and climatic
conditions. Therefore, these data will be a reference for the obtained measurement results from own observations.
C. Investigation of the potential of shallow geothermal energy
In order to determine the potential of shallow geothermal energy in the Rabka-Zdrój area, geological and geotechnical
data of the rock mass will be analyzed for the assessment of heat conduction parameters. At that stage, data from the Central
Hydrogeological Data Banks and the Central Geological Database were obtained in order to get a detailed diagnosis of the
geological structure of Rabka-Zdrój to a depth of 100m. A detailed recognition of the geological structure is extremely
important in the case of ground heat exchangers, since the thermal conditions of the soil in particular regions of Poland differ.
The possibility of using thermal energy contained in the ground for heating buildings depends on them to a large extent. The
obtained data will show the diversity of the rock mass and determine its potential for the use of renewable energy technologies
for heating purposes.
It was also assumed to obtain hydrogeological data that will be used to assess the possibility of using groundwater in the
Rabka-Zdrój area as a bottom source of heat pumps. In order to conduct a correct analysis, the databases of disposable and
prospective groundwater resources as well as hydrogeological maps for the territory of Poland and the database for
groundwater monitoring will also be used. The collected physicochemical parameters of groundwater will allow for the
analysis of the selection of the ultimate heat pumps using groundwater. The assessment of the quality of groundwater in health
resort areas remains an important issue. Therefore, the sampling of water at selected points for the assessment of
physicochemical properties was foreseen. Due to the location of the town within the mining area for curative waters, it is
necessary to consider the geological and environmental conditions for the installation of heat pumps, preventing their
interference in the stability of the extraction of mineral resources.
IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

A. Wind energy potential
Measurement results are recorded every 30 minutes as the average of parameter readings from this period. In the period
of the registration time unit, the wind direction and current, average, maximum and minimum wind speed data are collected.
For the initial assessment of wind parameters in Rabka-Zdrój, data from December 2017–May 2018 were analyzed (in total
8,736 records). The town area is characterized by low wind speeds with frequent periods of silence (40%). A significant share
of 20.4% has average wind speed from 0.4-0.8 m/s, as well as 0.8-1.2 m/s (13.6%), and 1.2-1.6 (9.8%) (Figure 6). The average
wind speed for the analyzed period is 0.8 m/s. The chart of maximum wind speed shows that in the discussed period the wind
speed reached 0.4-1.6 m/s (about 40% of the recorded measurements) (Figure 7). The frequency of maximum wind speeds
from 1.6 to 4.0 m/s is similar and amounts to an average of 6%. Maximum wind speeds above 6 m/s are rarely recorded and
have a small share in the sample. However, the maximum wind speeds during the measurement period occur only in short
periods of time.
The collected literature regarding the climatic conditions of the health-resort town is confirmed by the measurement data
collected from the measurement station (Lorenc, 2005; Kozłowska-Szczęsna et al., 2002; Kozłowska-Szczęsna, Krawczyk and
Błażejczyk, 2004). The predominant wind direction in the December-May period is south-west (SW) 15% and west (W) 11%.
The terrain conditions affect the wind conditions in the town. Its location in the valley surrounded by hills constitutes a natural
barrier for strong winds and determines the free flow of air masses from the open space of the town.

icshge.org
45
40
35
Frequency [%] 30
25
20
15
10
0
0-0.4 0.4-0.8 0.8-1.2 1.2-1.6 1.6-2.0 2.0-2.4 2.4-2.8 2.8-3.2 3.2-3.6 3.6-4.0
Average wind speed [m/s]
Figure 6. The frequency of occurrence the average wind speeds in December-May period.
18
16
14
12
Frequency [%]
10
8
6
4
2
0
Maximum wind speed [m/s]

Figure 7. The frequency of occurrence the maximum wind speeds in December-May period.
B. Solar energy potential

The data published by IMWM-NRI, which in the next stage of the research will be compared to own measurements, were
used for initial analysis of the solar potential in Rabka-Zdrój. The presented data come from a meteorological station located
in Zakopane, which continuously records the data of the total solar irradiation on the horizontal plane (dane.imgw.pl, 2018).
The data are provided in the form of hourly averages of solar irradiation. Figure 8 presents the distribution of average hourly
total irradiation values for each month in 2016. The presented data show that the largest amount of irradiation reaching the
earth surface is recorded in the period from April to August. The highest average of hourly solar irradiation value occurs at
1:00 p.m. in June (522 W/m2), while the lowest is achieved in December and January. The analysis of the obtained values
shows that there is a significant potential for devices using solar energy that can be used to produce electricity or to prepare
domestic hot water.
Yearly sum of total irradiation on a horizontal plane for Zakopane read from maps developed by Joint Research Centre −
Photovoltaic Geographical Information System, is about 1,050 kWh /m2 (re.jrc.ec.europa.eu, 2018). In turn, the sum of the
total irradiation calculated on the basis of the available data was 937.3 kWh /m2. The differences between values may result
from different data ranges. JRC maps are developed on the basis of the long-term data, whereas the value for Zakopane was
calculated for one measuring year.

icshge.org
[W/m2]
4500
4000 December
November
3500
October
3000 September
2500 August
July
2000
June
1500 May
1000 April
March
500
February
0 January
Figure 8. Distribution of average monthly hour values of total irradiation intensity in 2016.
C. Shallow geothermal energy potential

The thermal parameters of the rock mass are extremely significant in the assessment of the possibility of using systems
supported by heat pumps based on ground heat exchangers. In the case of low-temperature geothermal, the lithosphere layers
are used. It is related to the change in the temperature of the ground, which is affected by: weather conditions depending on
the season (including solar radiation, atmospheric precipitation, snow cover, temperature), type of ground surface coverage,
rock mass parameters (thermal conductivity of the ground, porosity, specific heat) (Tytko, 2014). The variability of the
temperature distribution in the ground is observed to the depth of occurrence of the "thermally neutral zone" (depending on
climatic conditions, approx. 10-15 m), where the ground temperature is close to the average annual air temperature. Below the
"thermally neutral zone" a constant increase in temperature with depth is assumed (Lee and Lam, 2008; Gołaś and Wołoszyn,
2011).
The lithology of rocks up to the depth of 100m for the RABKA 19 aperture profile was used for the initial assessment.
The detailed identification of the geological structure allowed to indicate the thermal conductivity coefficient (adopted on the
basis of literature) for particular types of soil. Thermal conductivity values are in the range of 0.4-2.3 W/m·K (Table 2). The
highest thermal conductivity coefficient is characteristic for sandstones, while the lowest for sandy gravels. The average
weighted thermal conductivity coefficient of the ground is 2.0, which corresponds to the unit thermal efficiency of the vertical
ground heat exchanger at the level of 42 W/m (POHPTD, 2013). In addition, the maximum amount of heat taken from the
ground should not exceed 82 kWh/(m·year). Further analyses regarding the assessment of low temperature geothermal
potential will be the subject of subsequent publications.
TABLE II
LITHOLOGICAL AND STRATIGRAPHIC PROFILE OF RABKA 19 WITH THERMAL CONDUCTIVITY PARAMETERS
Thermal Conductivity [W/m·K]
Top
No. Bottom [m] Thickness [m] Lithology Stratigraphy
[m]
Range Recommended
1 0.0 6.7 6.7

Sandy gravel Quaternary 0.4-0.9 0.4
2 6.7 9.0 2.3
3 9.0 18.8 9.8 Sandstone 1.3-5.1 2.3
4 18.8 25.0 6.2 Marl 1.5-3.5 2.1
5 25.0 29.0 4.0 Slates 1.5-2.6 2.1
6 29.0 43.0 14.0 Marl Tertiary(Eocene) 1.5-3.5 2.1
7 43.0 59.0 16.0 Sandstone 1.3-5.1 2.3
8 59.0 62.5 3.5 Slates 1.5-2.6 2.1
9 62.5 87.0 24.5 Marl 1.5-3.5 2.1

icshge.org
10 87.0 100.0 13.0 Slates 1.5-2.6 2.1
Weighted average 2.0
Source: POHPTD, 2013; Corry and Jones, 2011; otworywiertnicze.pgi.gov.pl, 2018
In order to assess the potential of underground water, 17 wells located in the area of the city of Rabka-Zdrój were analyzed
as the bottom source for heat pumps (Figure 9). Samples were taken from dug wells and drilled wells, which are constantly
exploited. Water pH values, conductivity and outlet water temperature were measured during field water sampling. The
obtained values were considered stable in the case when, for three consecutive results, the parameter values did not differ more
than: 0.1 unit for pH, 5% for conductivity, 0.2ºC for water temperature. Water samples from the wells were collected in
accordance with the guidelines described in the PN-ISO 5667-11: 2004 Standard (Polish Standardization Committee, 2017).
The samples were delivered to the laboratory within 24 hours. The physicochemical analysis of water takes place in the
accredited Hydrogeochemical Laboratory of the Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology Department of the AGH University
of Science and Technology in Krakow (PCA accreditation certificate No. AB 1050).
Figure 9. Location of groundwater samples in the town of Rabka-Zdrój.
For the proper functioning of the system with a water-water heat pump, the parameters, such as water temperature,
conductivity, pH, measured in the field during sampling, are very important. The conductivity values in the analyzed points
are in the range of 200-850 μS/cm. The highest value was recorded at point RABKA 3, and the lowest at RABKA 15,
amounting to respectively: 834 μS/cm and 213 μS/cm (Table 3). It is worth noting, that high conductivity values may indicate
water pollution, and in the case of heat pumps increase the corrosion rate of most metals (Dimplex, 2012). According to the
Regulation of the Minister of Health of 13 November 2015, this parameter should be taken into account when assessing the
corrosive properties of water and its value should not exceed 2,500 μS/cm (Minister of Health, 2017). The analyzed waters are
characterized by weakly acidic and slightly alkaline reaction (pH 6.0-8.0), only the RABKA 3 sample has neutral reaction
(pH=7) (Barczyk et al., 2006). The pH reaction affects the degree of copper corrosion. Manufacturers of heat pumps in their
devices most often use two types of plate heat exchanger: copper or stainless steel. Therefore, water pH recommended by
manufacturers should be in the range of 7.0-9.0 (Dimplex, 2012; AlphainnoTec, 2009; Steibel Electron, 2018). The
temperature of water used as the bottom source for heat pumps should be at least 4°C (Dimplex, 2006; Nibe-Biawar, 2017).
Outlet water temperatures, measured during sampling (October 2018), vary between 9.5-19.7°C, however, they change during
the year.

icshge.org
TABLE III
PRELIMINARY CHARACTERISTICS OF PHYSICOCHEMICAL PARAMETERS OF WATER
Sampling point pH Conductivity [µS/cm] T [°C]
RABKA 1 7.22 790 11.7
RABKA 2 7.29 457 16.2
RABKA 3 7.00 834 14.4
RABKA 4 7.29 497 14.6
RABKA 5 7.34 431 10.3
RABKA 6 6.98 424 9.5
RABKA 7 6.16 220 14.6
RABKA 8 7.87 326 15.9
RABKA 9 7.31 516 15.5
RABKA 10 7.19 719 19.7
RABKA 11 7.05 660 13.4
RABKA 12 7.28 614 15.3
RABKA 13 7.25 455 14.6
RABKA 14 7.53 377 14.2
RABKA 15 6.51 213 13.4
RABKA 16 7.83 332 13.4
RABKA 17 7.13 469 11.4
V. CONCLUSION
The problem of low emission affects many small cities around the world. Polish cities year to year are on the list of the
most polluted ones in Europe. The negative effects of low emission are increasingly felt by society. Therefore, it is necessary
to introduce a number of solutions adjusted to the needs of cities, which aim at improving air quality. The authors decided to
propose solutions based on local resources of renewable energy sources. The research area is a health resort municipality,
located in the southern Poland. The analysis showed that the town is struggling with the problem of air pollution, especially
during the winter. The permissible annual concentration of BaP has been exceeded eightfold. The permissible daily PM10 dust
concentration is exceeded from October to March, with an intensification falling in January and February being the peak of
heating season. The research activity was focused on the recognition and determination of the potential of solar and wind
energy, as well as shallow geothermal energy. From the collected wind energy parameters, it appears that in the health resort
area weak winds below 2 m/s prevail (90% share in the sample). The average wind speed obtained for the semi-annual
observation period was 0.8 m/s, and the dominant wind direction is southwest. The Rabka-Zdrój area is characterized by good
solar conditions. The sum of the total solar irradiation intensity was 937.3 kwh /m2 in 2016. The initial physicochemical
analysis of groundwater did not exclude the possibility of using systems supported by the water-water heat pumps in Rabka-
Zdrój. The pH of the tested waters varies between 6.0-8.0, and thus meets the criteria of the majority of heat pump
manufacturers. The obtained pH and conductivity measurement results do not exceed limits set by the Minister of Health. In
addition, the analysis of the RABKA 19 aperture data has shown that the rock mass in question is characterized by good
thermal conductivity. The average weighted value of the thermal conductivity coefficient was 2.0 W/m·K. The determined
value of the unit thermal efficiency of the vertical ground exchanger is 42 W/m. The higher the thermal efficiency of the
exchanger, the smaller the overall length may be. Thermal conductivity of the rock mass affects the amount of heat that can
be taken from the ground and used for heating purposes. In this case, 82 kWh /(m·year) of unit heat uptake from the ground
should not be exceeded.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The scientific work was financed from budgetary sources for years 2017-2021, as a research project under the “Diamentowy
Grant” programme (grant agreement No. DI2016 003946).
REFERENCES
AlphainnoTec, (2009). The guide to heat pumps. [pdf] Available at: http://www.alpha-
innotec.pl/fileadmin/user_upload/Przewodnik_po_pompach_ciepla.pdf [Accessed 16 Oct. 2018].
Barczyk, G., Dobrzyński, D., Humnicki, W., Janica, D., Knyszyński, F., Krogulec, E., Leśniak, P., Macioszczyk, A., Małecki, J., Mikołajków J., Sadurski.
A. (2006). The basics of applied hydrogeology. Warszawa: Wyd. Naukowe PWN.
Brook, R.D., Rajagopalan, S., Pope, C.A., Brook, J.R., Bhatnagar, A., Diez-Roux, A.V., Holguin, F., Hong, Y., Luepker, R.V., Mittleman, M.A., Peters, A.,
Siscovick, D., Smith, S.C., Whitsel, L., Kaufman, J.D. (2010). Particulate matter air pollution and cardiovascular disease: An update to the scientific
statement from the American Heart Association, Circulation, 121(21), pp. 2331-2378.
City Council of Rabka-Zdrój, (2013). Resolution No. XXXVIII/244/13 City Council of Rabka Zdrój of 17 July 2013 regarding to adopt the Statute of the
health resort Rabka-Zdrój. Official Journal of the Małopolska Voivodship.
Corry, M., Jones G. (2011). Training Manual for Designers of Shallow Geothermal Systems. [pdf]
Brussels: GEOTRAINET, EFG. Available at: http://geotrainet.eu/wpcontent/uploads/2015/10/Geotrainet-Manual-for-Designers-on-Shallow-
Geothemal.compressed.pdf [Accessed 15 Oct. 2018].

icshge.org
dane.imgw.pl, (2018). Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute
Website. [online] Available at: https://dane.imgw.pl/data/dane_pomiarowo_obserwacyjne/dane_aktynometryczne/Zakopane/ [Accessed 10 Oct.
2018].
Dimplex, (2006). Design Handbook. Heating and cooling by a heat pump. [pdf] Available
at: http://www.dimplex.de/fileadmin/dimplex/downloads/planungshandbuecher/pl/PHB_WP_Heizen_Kuehlen_POL_Dez06.pdf [Accessed 17 Oct.
2018].
Dimplex, (2012). Heat pumps for heating purpose and heat pumps for hot water. Planning and
installation guide. [pdf] Available at: http://www.dimplex.de/fileadmin/dimplex/downloads/planungshandbuecher/pl/PHB_Heizen_PL_Mar13.pdf
[Accessed 16 Oct. 2018].
Dzikuć, M. (2017). Problems associated with the low emission limitation in Zielona Góra (Poland): Prospects and Challenges. Journal of Cleaner
Production.,166 (10), pp. 81–87.
European Parliament, Council (2008). Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008 on ambient air quality and
cleaner air for Europe. Available at https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32008L0050&from=en [Accessed 4 Oct.
2018]
European Parliament, Council, (2010). Directive 2010/75/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 24 November 2010 on industrial emissions
(integrated pollution prevention and control). Available at https://eurlex.europa.eu/legal content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32010L0075&from=en
[Accessed 29 Sep. 2018].
Godziek, G., Sokulska, A. (2017). Low Carbon Economy Plan for Rabka Zdrój. Attachment No. 2 to resolution No. XXVIII/212/17 City Council of Rabka
Zdrój of 25 January 2017.
Gołaś, A., Wołoszyn, J. (2011). Thermal distribution analysis of a vertical ground heat exchangers. Modelling in Engineering,41, pp. 107-114.
Graboś, A., Żymankowska-Kumon, S., Sadlok, J., Sadlok, R. (2014). The prevention of the low emission on the area of compact settlements houses.
Bochnia: Wyd. Stowarzyszenie na rzecz efektywności energetycznej i rozwoju odnawialnych źródeł energii „HELIOS”, pp. 6-14.
Kaczmarczyk, M., Kaczmarczyk, M., Pełka, G., Luboń, W., Będkowska, A., Piechowicz, Ł., Ciapała, B., Blok, M. (2015). Low emission: from its sources
to the means of elimination. Kraków: Wyd. Geostystem, pp. 7-10.
Kaczmarczyk, M., Kaczmarczyk, M., Pełka, G., Luboń, W., Będkowska, A., Ciapała, B., Malik, D., Podlewska, E., Zboina, M. (2017). Low emission:
energy efficiency in municipalities and local governments. Kraków: Wyd.Globenergia, pp. 8-9.
Kozłowska-Szczęsna, T., Błażejczyk, K., Krawczyk, B., Limanówka, D. (2002). The bioclimate of polish health resorts and the opportunities for its use in
treatment. Warszawa: Polish Academy of Sciences Stanisław Leszczycki Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, pp. 390-407.
Kozłowska-Szczęsna, T., Krawczyk, B., Błażejczyk, K. (2004). The Main Features of Bioclimatic Conditions at Polish Health Resort. Geographia
Polonica, 77(1), pp. 45-61.
Landrigan, P.J. (2017). Air pollution and health. The Lancet Public Health, 2(1), pp. e4-e5.
Lee C.K., Lam H.N. (2008). Computer simulation of borehole ground heat exchangers for geothermal heat pump systems. Renewable Energy, 33(6), pp.
1286–1296.
Lochno A., Wawrzynowska B., Placek M., Bechta A., Bartocha A., Załupka M., Janowska M., Przybyła T., Sobecki I., Wahling W., Łata W., Kasjan T.
(2017). Attachment No. 2 to resolution No. XXXII/451/17 Lesser Poland Regional Assembly of z 23 January 2017.
Logan, W.P.D. (1953). Mortality in the London fog incident,1952. The Lancet, 262(6755), pp. 336-338.
Lorenc, H. (2005). Polish Climate Atlas. Warszawa: Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute Poland, pp. 14-20.
Marshal of the Polish Parliament, (2017). The Act of 11 May 2017 on Health Resorts, Spas and Spa
Conservation Areas and on Spa Communities. Available at http://prawo.sejm.gov.pl/isap.nsf/DocDetails.xsp?id=WDU20170001056 [Accessed 29
Sep. 2018]
Matuszko A., Matuszko D. (2014). Environmental Impact Assessment for the Local Spatial Development Plan for "A" health resort protection zone of
Rabka-Zdrój. Kraków, pp. 1-29.
Minister of Health (2006). Regulation of the Minister of Health 13 April 2006 on the range of research necessary to determine the healing properties of
natural medicinal raw materials and the healing properties of the climate, the criteria for their evaluation and the template of the certificate confirming
these properties. Available at http://prawo.sejm.gov.pl/isap.nsf/DocDetails.xsp?id=WDU20060800565 [Accessed 2 Oct. 2018]
Minister of Health, (2017). Regulation of the Minister of Health 7 December 2017 on the quality of
water intended for human consumption. Available at: http://prawo.sejm.gov.pl/isap.nsf/DocDetails.xsp?id=WDU20170002294 [Accessed 16 Oct.
2018].
Mishra, S. (2017). Is smog innocuous? Air pollution and cardiovascular disease. Indian Health Journal, 69(4), pp. 425-429.
Nibe-Biawar, (2017). Materials for designer. Notebooks for the design and executing the heating installation with Nibe-Biawar ground-source heat pumps.
[pdf] Available online: https://www.nibe.pl/wiedza/materiay-dla-projektantow/ [Accessed 17 Oct. 2018].
otworywiertnicze.pgi.gov.pl, (2018). Central Geological Database Website. Available at: http://otworywiertnicze.pgi.gov.pl/ [Accessed 14 Oct. 2018].
POHPTD, (2013). Polish Organization for Heat Pump Technology Development - Guidelines for Designing, Preparing and Reception of Installations with
Heat Pumps. Part I: The lower heat sources.
Polish Standardization Committee (2011). Air quality – Standard method for determining the concentration of benzo(a)pyrene in ambient air [PN-EN
15549:2011].
Polish Standardization Committee (2014). Ambient air – Standard gravimetric measurement method to determine the concentration of mass fractions PM10
or PM2.5 particulate matter [PN-EN 12341:2014-07].
Polish Standardization Committee, (2017). Water sampling. Part 11. Guidance on groundwater sampling [PN-ISO 5667-11:2017-10].
Pope, C.A., Turner, M.C., Burnett, R.T., Jerrett, M.; Gapstur, S.M., Diver, W.R., Krewski, D., Brook, R.D. (2015). Relationships between fine particulate
air pollution, cardiometabolic disorders, and cardiovascular mortality. Circulation Research, 116(1), pp. 108-115.
re.jrc.ec.europa.eu, (2018). Joint Research Centre − Photovoltaic Geographical Information System Website.
Available at: http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvg_download/map_index.html#! [Accessed on 10 Oct. 2018].
RIEP (2018). Regional Inspectorates for Environmental Protection in Krakow - Air quality monitoring system-archive data. Available at
http://monitoring.krakow.pios.gov.pl [Accessed 5 Oct. 2018].
Steibel Electron, (2018). The catalog of accessories for heat pumps. [pdf] Available at: https://www.stiebel-
eltron.pl/filesManager/files/1527670139Osprzet_pompy_ciepla_032018.pdf ([Accessed 16 Oct. 2018].
Tytko R. (2014). Equipments and systems for renewable Energy. 4th ed. Kraków: Wyd. i Drukarnia Towarzystwa Słowaków w Polsce.
Walkowiak K., Grabowska-Szaniec A., Bartłomiejczak W., Krell M., Piecuch N., Śmielecka M., Smakulski J., Jęśko M. (2009). The Health Resort Report
of the Rabka-Zdrój municipality, Part I. Poznań: Eko-Log Sp. Z o.o.
WHO (2013). Review of evidence on health aspects of air pollution – REVIHAAP Project. [pdf] Copenhagen: World Health Organization Regional Office
for Europe. Available at http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/193108/REVIHAAP-Final-technical-report.pdf [Accessed 26 Sep.
2018].

icshge.org
WHO (2018). World health statistics 2018: monitoring health for the SDGs, sustainable development
goals. [pdf] Geneva: World Health Organization. Available at http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/272596/9789241565585-eng.pdf?ua=1
WHO Regional Office for Europe, OECD, (2015). Economic cost of the health impact of air pollution in Europe: Clean air, health and wealth. [pdf]
Copenhagen: WHO Regional Office for Europe. Available at http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/276772/Economic-cost-health-
impact-air-pollution-en.pdf [Accessed 29 Sep. 2018].
WHO (2006). World Health Organization Air quality guidelines for particulate matter, ozone, nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide. Global update 2005.
Summary of risk assessment. [pdf] Geneva: World
Health Organization. Available at http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/69477/WHO_SDE_PHE_OEH_06.02_eng.pdf?sequence=1

icshge.org
Towards an Adaptive Knowledge Sharing in Urban Disaster Risk

Reduction and Management
Mariano, B.J.
Department of Geography, College of Social Sciences and Philosophy, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines;
bryan_joel.mariano@upd.edu.ph
Abstract—The concept and practice of knowledge management in development have been largely shaped by the emergence and complexity
of modern times. The increasing number and intensity of natural catastrophes as a result of the changing climate renders a new social order
that is highly complex, oftentimes uncertain, and largely ambiguous. This exploratory research on the case of Marikina City, Philippines
aimed to provide evidences on how local governments can use adaptive knowledge sharing to manage complexity inherent in urban disaster
risk reduction and management (DRRM). Using Complexity Theory as a guide, this research examined the interrelated variables of
knowledge sharing channels, knowledge sharing behavior, and social networks of the members of the DRRM Council. The social networks
were mapped out in terms of the four thematic areas of DRRM: disaster prevention and mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery
and rehabilitation. Result of analyses suggest that (1) flexibility is a key component in developing adaptive capacity; (2) network density
reflects robustness and resilience of system; (3) skewed attention given to scientific knowledge undermines the importance of local
knowledge in reducing uncertainties and dealing with complexity; and (4) social networks are important in navigating DRRM organizations
towards the edge of chaos.
Keywords—complexity, disaster management, knowledge sharing, social networks
I. INTRODUCTION
T HE scourge of disasters which brought unparalleled scale of damages demand new strategies that would effectively
mitigate risks and reduce uncertainties in complex organizational environments. In today’s knowledge-based economies,
knowledge is said to be a key driver to promote sustainable development [1]. From this conjecture, decision-makers and various
development organizations realize the potential of knowledge management (KM) in addressing development problems. There
is a placement of the creation, transfer, and management of knowledge at the core of their activities [2]. KM in the context of
development is viewed as the optimization of identification, sharing, and use of knowledge among local communities and
development workers [3].
One of the core processes in KM is knowledge sharing, which covers social interaction and communication that leads to
learning. Knowledge sharing is defined as a process of mutual exchange of knowledge to enable action and new knowledge
[4]. The main goal is either to create new knowledge through combination of existing ones or become better in utilizing existing
ones [5]. Knowledge sharing is a complex process that involves the interaction of several agents within a complex system [6].
Knowledge that emerges in complex environments is due to unpredictable, dynamic, and non-linear interaction of multiple
agents. However, knowledge sharing systems are often designed on the basis of who, what, where, why, and how one will get
certain knowledge in a given context [7]. This mechanistic view is being challenged by a more decentralized and adaptive one
in the context of increasingly complex organizational environments [7].
The 21st century, sometimes dubbed as the ‘age of complexity,’ poses a big challenge to many institutions on thinking of
new ways of understanding the complex, interrelated, and ever-changing world. Adapting to the complexity of the environment
brought by natural disasters is undoubtedly one of the biggest challenges in the development sector. Disaster Risk Reduction
and Management (DRRM) involves cross-scale and multilevel coordination of various agents from different governing bodies
(i.e. local and national government, local and international non-government agencies, civil society groups, private sector, and
grassroots communities). It needs to have a holistic approach and include stakeholders at all levels to effectively mitigate risks
and enable resiliency to perturbations brought by disasters. This makes the DRRM environment in urban setting a complex
and knowledge-intensive endeavor.
This exploratory research looks at how an adaptive knowledge sharing can be positioned in an interconnected and complex
DRRM system by analyzing knowledge sharing channels, adaptive knowledge sharing behavior, and social networks within
the identified local government disaster management council in the Philippines. Specifically, the study sought to achieve the
following objectives: (1) describe how Marikina City DRRM Council (MCDRRMC) agents share knowledge in terms of the
knowledge sharing channels they use and knowledge sharing behavior; (2) Map out the social networks of MCDRRMC in
terms of network size and density, inclusiveness, tie strength, and centrality measures; (3) determine statistical relationships
among MCDRRMC’s socio-demographic characteristics, knowledge sharing channels, knowledge sharing behavior, and
identified social networks based on four thematic areas of DRRM.
A. Knowledge Sharing and Complexity
Several scholars similarly argue that there are four generations of KM [8]. The first generation of KM is referred to as the
rationalist approach wherein the purpose is knowledge transfer and is primarily ICT-driven [8]. It views knowledge as
something that can be transferred in a linear fashion which often neglects the local context to development. The second
generation is focused on organizational learning and how knowledge can be used to increase efficiency and effectiveness of
development processes. Meanwhile, the third generation gives importance to knowledge sharing across organizational
boundaries through communities of practice. Lastly, the fourth generation is referred to as the post-rationalist approach which
is geared towards the flow and emergence of knowledge from social construction of individual practices in relation to its
context [8], [9]. This is a situated learning wherein the emergence and construction of knowledge in local context-specific

icshge.org
practices, embedded within particular environment [8].

The practice-based approach takes into account the specific context in which local knowledge is developed as well as the
multiple knowledge among agents [9]. From the four generations, a fifth generation of KM for development has been proposed
[10]. It is identified as “the ‘development knowledge system’ or ‘development knowledge ecology’ which emphasizes the
linkages between the different elements of the system” [10]. One of the basic features of this generation is the recognition of
complexity and emergence.
Complex systems are called ‘complex’ because of the nonlinear interactions among agents within the system. Although
scholars have not agreed on a universal definition for a complex system, there are several basic features of a complex system
that they have similarly described. Complex systems are also made up of agents that are said to be inherently adaptive [11].
These adaptive agents interact with each other that engender co-evolution which contributes in shaping the whole complex
adaptive system [12], [13], [14]. Moreover, complex systems emerge from the interactions of its agents. There are unexpected
behaviors that arise from the basic rules that govern their interactions [11].
Development problems are usually positioned at the edge of chaos [15]. The edge of chaos in a complex system is the
region where top-down approach may not work and too lose structure can be counterproductive to the organization. It is thus
a special kind of balance in which members of the organization can collaborate, adapt, and innovate in trying to address real-
world problems. Reference [15] suggests that complexity theory can provide new ways of improving the aid system, in which
disaster management belongs to, in the development sector.
In complex systems, emergence occurs in the edge of chaos where several agents interact, self-organize, and create new
kinds of order [16]. Emergence points out how the overall properties of a complex system evolve from interconnectedness and
interaction of the system with its environment, and that the local context in which agents are interacting is highly important
[11], [20]. Because of this, top-down and over-controlling approaches can be counterproductive in complex systems.
Moreover, there should be minimum rules to allow space for innovation and maximize the system’s adaptive capability [11].
The concepts of interconnectedness and nature of interaction or knowledge sharing, which includes the locality and multiplicity
of knowledge, are integral in the study of emergence in complex systems.
Reference [17] stated that natural disasters have interactions with human structures and processes in highly complex and
unpredictable manner. Management of disaster risk is inherently complex and dynamic. It entangles adaptive knowledge
sharing for effective decision-making and coordination among multiple agents and organizations across various levels and
locations. Likewise, looking at complexity theory through the concept of feedback can give a new perspective in viewing
disasters. While disasters destabilize the natural order of human systems [18] as well as social and ecological systems [19], it
also gives space for the emergence of new order. This emergence opens up an opportunity for organizations to realize its
maximum adaptive capacity in such complex environment, and transform itself into a more desired state [19]. This makes the
whole system different from the sum of its parts.
II. METHODOLOGY
A. Study Site
This research took the case of Marikina City, one of the high-risk municipalities in Metro Manila when it comes to
flooding, earthquake, and landslides. In 2009, Typhoon Ketsana (locally named Ondoy) ravaged 14 out of 16 barangays in
Marikina City. The highest flood level (22.6 meters) in the city was recorded during the onslaught of this typhoon. With this,
80 per cent of the residents were affected and 3,059 families were evacuated. The Marikina City Government estimated that
some 55,926 houses were damaged, 1,652 businesses were affected and most of the government-owned equipment and
vehicles as well as the city hall were damaged, leaving the city government operations momentarily paralyzed, based on data
from Marikina City DRRM Office retrieved last 11 November 2014. Apparently, this shows that although Marikina City has
institutionalized DRRM measures, its competence needs to be further improved so as to respond effectively to extreme
weather-related hazards.
The onslaught brought by Typhoon Ketsana served as tipping point to the City Government of Marikina to gear up more
plans and actions towards resiliency. After the Philippine DRRM Act was enacted in 2010, Marikina City has established its
DRRM Office and the DRRM Council was reactivated in 2011. In 2013, the City has developed its Local DRRM Plan (2013-
2019) and Contingency Plan detailing all the plans and actions needed to make Marikina City more resilient to disasters. It is
now a continuing priority program of the City.
B. Research Design
The case study research design was informed by perspectives from complexity theory which offers knowledge about
dynamics of interactions that “create strong systems, support healthy adaptation and the ongoing evolution of a system over
time” [21].
Twenty-three (23) members of the MDRRMC were able to participate in the study through standardized interview survey
and key informant interviews. The questionnaire includes aspects of (1) socio-demographic characteristics, (2) views on
effectiveness of various knowledge sharing channels, (3) understanding of adaptive knowledge sharing behavior based on
complexity concepts, and (2) component on social network analysis.
1) Analysis of relationship among socio-demographic characteristic, knowledge sharing channels, and adaptive
knowledge sharing behavior
Frequency counts and percentages were used to describe socio-demographic characteristics, knowledge sharing channels,

icshge.org
and adaptive knowledge sharing behavior. Meanwhile, Fisher’s Exact test on association was used to calculate if there are
significant relationships among the said variables. The conclusion based on Fisher’s Exact test result was based on the
significance level of 0.05.
2) Social network analysis on DRRM thematic areas
The City Government of Marikina operates on the four thematic areas of DRRM which include the following: (1) disaster
prevention and hazard mitigation, (2) disaster preparedness, (3) disaster response, and (4) recovery and rehabilitation. Based
on these thematic areas, the social networks of MCDRRMC agents were identified. Each participant was asked on “whom do
you go to when there is a need to discuss about (thematic area)?” A list of MCDRRMC agents was presented as a reference
for an easy recall. After identifying several agents on their social network in a particular thematic area, the participants were
then asked on the number of months/years they know that particular agent/office as well as their frequency of interaction.
SNA was conducted to map out the social networks of research participants. A social network can be defined as “a set of
relations that apply to a set of actors, as well as any additional information on those actors and relations” [22]. SNA gives
emphasis on the patterns of interpersonal and social relationships among actors within the network. The actors can be
individuals, groups, organizations, or institutions. SNA is a long-standing research interest. It is not just an analytical technique,
but a paradigm which carries its own theoretical underpinnings, methodologies, and tools [22].
Various SNA metrics are being analyzed to unravel dynamics among agents within the network. In this study, the metrics
that were analyzed include network size and density, inclusiveness, tie strength, and centrality measures. A computer software
called UCINET (version 6.532) was used to analyze data on the said key indicators. The sociogram or visualization of the
social networks on four thematic areas of DRRM was generated using NetDraw application in UCINET. Key informant
interviews were also conducted with selected participants to validate the results.
To test if there is a significant relationship between the identified knowledge sharing networks, Quadratic Assignment
Procedure (QAP) correlation was used. In QAP correlation, UCINET first computes Pearson’s r to correlate the knowledge
sharing networks and assess if there is a significant relationship. Afterwards, UCINET conducts permutation test on matrices
between networks and the Pearson’s r was then recalculated. This process happened 5,000 times in UCINET [22]. The
computed p-value wherein one less than 5 per cent (p<.05) means that there is a significant relationship between the networks.
III. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

A. Sociodemographic characteristics
The participants are made up of MCDRRMC agents whose ages are ranging from 24 to 61 years old. Eight out of 23
participants are 46 to 53 years old (34.78%). There are also eight out of 23 who are 54 to 61 years old (34.78%). MCDRRMC
is a male-dominated organization by looking at the ratio of males to females (16:7). Fifteen out of 23 participants are married
(65.22%). Meanwhile, 12 are single (26.09%) and two are widowed (8.70%). Half of the participants are relatively new in the
MCDRRMC with a year or less of membership (52.17%). Results showed that 12 out of 23 or majority of participants (52.17%)
do not have formal training in DRRM.
B. Knowledge sharing channels
Participants were asked to choose only three out of eight items under knowledge sharing channels that they think are most
effective when sharing knowledge about DRRM within the MCDRRMC. Results revealed that 20 out of 23 participants
(86.96%) chose formal knowledge sharing channels as the most effective while only three out of 23 participants (13.04%)
viewed informal knowledge sharing channels as the most effective.
Formal knowledge sharing channels are viewed as the most effective when sharing knowledge about DRRM within
MCDRRMC. Monthly council meetings dominated other knowledge sharing channels in terms of perceived effectiveness.
Attending monthly council meetings is part of their mandate as agents of MCDRRMC. This platform is where all of the
MCDRRMC agents gather and talk about issues related to DRRM. Moreover, this is the major platform that is being used to
raise questions, provide suggestions, and decide on matters that will strengthen the capacity of Marikina City in addressing
disaster-related problems. Hence, results showed that the choice and usage of formal knowledge sharing channels conform to
the formal structure of MCDRRMC.
Although formal knowledge sharing channels are viewed as the most effective, the importance of informal knowledge
sharing channels should also be taken into account. This is to provide wide-ranging options in sharing knowledge when formal
knowledge sharing channels becomes not applicable. For instance, council meetings happen only once a month. If there are
issues or topics that several agents want to talk about but the monthly council meeting is just yet to happen or just happened,
this is where informal meetings and use of electronic media (e.g. public chats, emails, etc.) can be utilized.
Participants perceived that there is a low potential of using emails and social media in sharing knowledge about DRRM
within MCDRRMC despite its importance in collaboration when face-to-face communication is not feasible. It can be noted
that most of the participants are digital immigrants which might probably the reason why they are reluctant to use web-based
tools. Social media are used to collaborate with people not only with the people you know but also to other people across
geographical boundaries [23]. This is important in linking MCDRRMC agents with other experts and organizations in other
parts of the country and the world.
By setting up and streamlining this kind of strategy, flexibility in the use of various knowledge sharing channels will be
practiced and this will improve the MCDRRMC agents’ adaptive capacity. This will also promote continuous feedback and
thus, enhance learning and build organizational memory.

icshge.org
C. Adaptive knowledge sharing behavior

MCDRRMC agents scored ‘High’ on adaptive knowledge sharing behavior. Based on the perspectives of knowledge
sharing and complexity theory, results showed that all of the agents of MCDRRMC scored ‘High’ on adaptive knowledge
sharing behavior, as there are no agents that fall into ‘Medium’ and ‘Low’ categories. They have a notion of knowledge sharing
culture, although incentives and rewards are not part of it. They regard knowledge sharing as integral to their work in DRRM.
They also acknowledge the importance of knowledge of Marikina City residents. Likewise, they believe that various offices
or sectors possess different knowledge that are valuable in DRRM. Lastly, MCDRRMC agents can freely share knowledge
because there are no strict rules that govern their interaction. Although the DRRM landscape is complex and continuously
changing, these sound practices allow MCDRRMC agents to learn and adapt to changes.
Based on several key informant interviews from selected MCDRRMC agents, the participants do not get any incentives
(i.e. monetary or in-kind) for sharing knowledge about DRRM within MCDRRMC although incentives or rewards have an
impact on knowledge sharing behavior. Rewards can increase the knowledge sharing behavior and with this, incentives act as
key facilitator of knowledge sharing [24]. Although there are no incentives or rewards, MCDRRMC agents still share
knowledge about DRRM with other MCDRRMC agents because they see it as integral and essential to their work in
MCDRRMC. Moreover, participants who agreed on the said statement (n=6; 20.09%) view knowledge as the actual incentive
that they get from knowledge sharing.
The edge of chaos views that organizations can maximize its adaptive capacity if the organization is not too loose and not
too structured [11]. Moreover, strict rules can impede the innovation within organizations. In the case of MCDRRMC agents,
results showed that generally, they are free to share the kind of knowledge that they want to share related to DRRM. This gives
space for the MCDRRMC to innovate and to capitalize on the knowledge of their members.
D. Social networks analysis
MCDRRMC’s social networks are inclusive but not dense. All of the identified social networks of MCDRRMC agents
based on four thematic areas of DRRM have a network size of 31 and there is 100 per cent inclusiveness in the social networks
of MCDRRMC (Figure 1). This means that there are no isolated agents in all of the identified social networks.
Although in one way or another, each agent can share and gain knowledge from other agents, their network densities just
range from 19.70 per cent to 20.90 per cent. Thus, the networks are not dense. Moreover, there are few connections present in
the network. This further implies that because of having a low network density, the knowledge about DRRM thematic areas
flows slowly from one agent to another within the various networks in MCDRRMC.
If the network becomes too dense, intense knowledge sharing reduces individual variation and can lead to system collapse
[25]. This means that if everyone is connected to one another, the same information can be repeated and this dampens the
capacity of the system to generate new knowledge, and thus, the system fails to innovate.
The density of the networks also reflects its robustness or the vulnerability of the system to collapse [25]. If the central
actors experienced problems or removed from the networks, the networks will be disconnected and may not withstand this
fragmentation.
MCDRRMC’s social networks have weak ties. Tie strength was measured by using the concept of reciprocity or the extent
in which ties are bidirectional. Results showed that the range of tie strength from the four knowledge sharing networks is 29.6
per cent to 33.9 per cent. Results were validated by computing Granovetterian strong ties and found that value of weak ties
outnumbered those of strong ties. This implies that the agents in the knowledge sharing networks generally have weak ties.
One of the reasons why MCDRRMC agents have weak ties is because there is only once-a-month formal meeting of the
members of MCDRRMC. Some of the members only have the opportunity to talk about issues in DRRM during this event.
Moreover, MCDRRMC agents have different scope of work and the location of their offices varies. This limits their
opportunity to gather and talk about issues on DRRM.
The identified social networks generally have low frequency of interaction. These interactions happen mostly on monthly
council meetings. Moreover, the ratio of reciprocated ties is also low in the identified social networks. With these, the
MCDRRMC agents have weak ties.
Strong ties are important in knowledge sharing because this kind of tie involves a high level of trust. That is why this kind
of tie is present more on close friends and family members. However, being in the network with strong ties, knowledge can be
repeated and creation of new ones may be hampered. In contrast to this, Reference [26] postulated the concept of ‘strength of
weak ties’ and argued that “those to whom we are weakly tied are more likely to move in circles different from our own and
will thus have access to information different from what we received.” By forming this kind of tie, agents can have a wider
range of knowledge that can be exchanged which is more important in the knowledge construction process.
By having weak ties, the agents in MCDRRMC can capitalize on this opportunity for the emergence of new knowledge
about the four thematic areas in DRRM.
The most central agents in all of MCDRRMC’s social networks include City Mayor’s Office (CMO), City Vice Mayor’s
Office (CVMO), Department of Education Marikina (DEPED), and Marikina City Disaster Risk Reduction Management Office
(DRRMO). Centrality was measured using Eigenvector, which refers to the sum of actor’s connections to other agents weighted
by degree centrality. Eigenvector centrality is a refined version of degree centrality [22]. While degree centrality looks only at

icshge.org
Figure 1. Sociogram of MCDRRMC’s social networks on (1) disaster prevention and hazard mitigation, (2) disaster preparedness, (3) disaster response, (4)
recovery and rehabilitation (The circles represent the agents (green = local government offices and national agencies; yellow = civil society organizations;
and blue = private sectors. The arrow heads pointing to agents mean that these agents were identified by other agent/s as part of their social network.)
the actual number of ties present between agents, eigenvector centrality looks at the immediate adjacent of focal actor to other
agents in the network [22].
The agents identified, City Mayor’s Office (CMO), City Vice Mayor’s Office (CVMO), Department of Education
Marikina (DEPED), and Marikina City Disaster Risk Reduction Management Office (DRRMO), are considered to be the major
brokers of knowledge within MCDRRMC (Figure 1). The involvement of these agents expands to four thematic areas of
DRRM. Moreover, they serve as the forefront of knowledge sharing activities and they have the potential control over
information. They also have the most crucial roles in the networks. If these agents malfunction, the system may experience
fragmentation [25]. With this, other agents should not just connect to these agents but also to other agents to make the networks
more cohesive, and thus, become more resilient to abrupt changes.
DRRMO serves as the bridge to all other agents in MCDRRMC. Centrality measures revealed that DRRMO serves as the
primary link to the other agents who are not connected. This means that DRRMO mediates all other MCDRRMC in knowledge
sharing about DRRM, especially in the social network on disaster preparedness. This poses an implication on how DRRMO
can connect all other agents in MCDRRMC for more active participation in DRRM initiatives.
MDRRMC agents representing civil society organizations and private sectors are the least central on the identified social
networks. These agents include the following: Civic Action Team Marikina (CAT), Philippine Contractors’ Association
(PCA), City Veterinary Office (CVO), Rotary Club Marikina (RCM), Marikina Valley Medical Society (MVMS), Tzu Chi
Foundation (TZF), Amang Rodriguez Memorial Medical Center (ARMMC) (Figure 1). Only a few agents nominated them as
part of their social networks. Some of the representatives do not regularly attend the monthly council meetings which might
explain why these agents are the least central.
Based on an interview with a representative from DRRMO, civil society organizations and private sectors were not much
involved in the disaster preparedness as well as disaster prevention and mitigation areas of DRRM since their focus is more
on the response and recovery. Although some agents are more focused on specific thematic area, their importance in other
thematic areas must also take into consideration. For instance, although PCA’s role is on recovery and rehabilitation, they can
also be important in disaster prevention and mitigation by collaborating with the CEO, among others, in making stronger
buildings and infrastructures that can withstand earthquakes.
Taking off from the polycentric governance model, complex problems can be addressed if multi-level and cross-scale
collaboration among agents will be nurtured [27]. For DRRM to have holistic approach, cross-scale linkages must be
established. Moreover, the local knowledge that these agents possess will be undermined if they will not be fully involved in
social networks. By acknowledging such, the multiplicity of knowledge will be integrated and this can help MCDRRMC to
effectively cope with uncertainties inherent in complex DRRM environment.
E. Statistical relationships among variables of the study
No association found between socio-demographic characteristics and knowledge sharing channels. Fisher’s Exact test
was used to analyze if there are any associations among variables. This statistical test calculates the exact probability of the
table of observed cell frequencies. Fisher’s Exact test on all of the variables under socio-demographic characteristics (i.e. sex,

icshge.org
civil status, educational attainment, nature of work, position in MCDRRMC, and DRRM training experience) and knowledge
sharing channels (i.e. formal and informal knowledge sharing channels) revealed that all of the p-values are greater than the
significance level of 0.05 (Table 1). This means that there is no association among all these variables.
TABLE I
P-VALUE OF SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS ASSOCIATED WITH KNOWLEDGE SHARING CHANNELS USING FISHER’S EXACT TEST
Socio-demographic characteristics associated with knowledge sharing channels p-value*
Sex vs. Channels 0.2095
Civil status vs. Channels 1
Educational attainment vs. Channels 1
Nature of work vs. Channels 0.5059
Position in MCDRRMC vs. Channels 1
DRRM training experience vs. Channels 0.2174
*significance level of p<0.05
Association test was not done among adaptive knowledge sharing behavior, knowledge sharing channels, and socio-
demographic characteristics. This is because all of the participants (100%) scored ‘High’ on adaptive knowledge sharing
behavior and there are no values that fall into ‘Medium’ and ‘Low’ categories. regardless of variables under socio-demographic
characteristics and knowledge sharing channels, the adaptive knowledge sharing behavior will always fall under ‘High’
category.
Meanwhile, Fisher’s Exact test was conducted in associating socio-demographic characteristics and knowledge sharing
channels. The results of this study did not yield the same result with the research conducted in Reference [24] about the
effectiveness of communication channels while sharing information to co-workers. They investigated the perceptions of 509
employees in nine Kuwaiti companies. They found that nature of work was significantly associated with informal one-to-one
communication, formal one-to-one communication, emailing, chatting with individuals over internet, communicating through
discussion groups over internet, and personal notes to employees on scrap paper. Similarly, gender was significantly associated
with formal one-to-one communication, formal meetings with groups of employees, email, use of official correspondence, and
use of personal notes. The length of employment was also significantly associated with chatting, use of discussion groups, and
use of personal notes. There was also significant association between channels and age (i.e. chatting and use of Internet-based
discussion groups) and educational attainment (i.e. informal one-to-one and formal group meetings).
These findings from Reference [24] confirmed that socio-demographic characteristics of employees have a strong link on
the channels they use. However, on this study, no significant associations were found. MCDRRMC agents are not hinged only
on specific channels. Moreover, the use of channels does not have any bearing on their socio-demographic characteristics.
Other studies on literature did not explicitly take into account the lens of adaptive capacity and complexity concepts when
soliciting empirical evidences about knowledge sharing behavior. This could probably the reason why this study yields a
different result. Although there are no significant relationships found, this result can translate to a more meaningful
explanation. This means that even most of the respondents chose formal knowledge sharing channels as the most effective,
this variable is not hinged on any other variables under socio-demographic characteristics, e.g. only males tend to choose
formal knowledge sharing channels. Thus, by offering a wide range of knowledge sharing channels, be it formal or informal,
will create plurality of platforms to be used in sharing knowledge about DRRM. Since all of the participants have high adaptive
knowledge sharing behavior, depending on the needs and context, they may have a flexible decision on what channel is going
to be used.
There are significant relationships found among the identified social networks based on four thematic areas of DRRM.
QAP correlation is being used to test the association between networks [22]. UCINET computes the Pearson’s r between
matrices to correlate two networks. Afterwards, UCINET conducts permutation testing or reordering of data in the matrices.
Pearson’s r is then recomputed and the result was compared to the original result. This process of permutation testing and
getting the Pearson’s r happened 5,000 times in UCINET [22].
Table II shows the results of the QAP correlation. The p-value on all correlated networks is 0.0002. This proportion of
less than 0.05 per cent means that there is significant relationship among the networks. Furthermore, the relationship of
observed matrices in the networks is unlikely due to chance.
TABLE II
P-VALUE OF SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC RESULTS OF QAP CORRELATION AND COMPUTED P-VALUE AMONG FOUR KNOWLEDGE SHARING NETWORKS OF
MCDRRMC
Knowledge sharing networks QAP correlation p-value
Disaster prevention and hazard mitigation by disaster preparedness 0.7910 0. 0002
Disaster prevention and hazard mitigation by disaster response 0.7441 0.0002
Disaster prevention and hazard mitigation by recovery and 0.7732 0.0002
rehabilitation
Disaster preparedness by disaster response 0.8024 0.0002
Disaster preparedness by recovery and rehabilitation 0.7784 0.0002
Disaster response by recovery and rehabilitation 0.7316 0.0002
This means that social networks of MCDRRMC on four thematic areas of DRRM are interrelated. This certainly shows
that DRRM themes in the context of Marikina City have no clear-cut boundaries. Moreover, the result shows that MCDRRMC

icshge.org
agents put equal importance on four thematic areas of DRRM. However, several experts on DRRM purported that efforts must
focus more on disaster prevention and hazard mitigation, as well as preparedness and early warning system which are the long-
term phases of DRRM. Despite the importance of early warning, it isn’t given much attention especially in investment [28].
As Reference [28] cited, the Global Humanitarian Assistance report revealed that $22 billion were allocated in humanitarian
response while only $563 million was in prevention and preparedness. By focusing more on the long-term phase of DRRM,
local governments can save more lives and reduce the impact of losses. Moreover, local communities must be well-engaged
in incorporating their local ecological and historical knowledge in DRRM strategies. This increases the capacity of the overall
integrity of system in withstanding abrupt changes in the environment.
IV. CONCLUDING REMARKS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Based on the results of this study, key themes were developed in explaining adaptive knowledge sharing in complex
DRRM system.
Flexibility is a key component in adaptive capacity. Flexibility can be fostered by tapping the potentials of various kinds
of knowledge sharing channels, whether formal or informal, and using such depending on the context. Flexibility also becomes
crucial when the internal and external contexts of the organization changes through time. Lastly, in social networks, flexibility
is essential to allow knowledge flow and move across the network.
Network density reflects robustness and resilience of system. Less dense networks, as seen in the case of MCDRRMC,
enable members to assert their individual strengths that are necessary in balancing persistence and change.
Skewed attention given to scientific knowledge undermines the importance of local knowledge in reducing uncertainties
and dealing with complexity. Civil society organizations and private sectors have unique knowledge that can contribute to
DRRM initiatives. By making them more active in knowledge sharing activities, multiple knowledge will be integrated and
this reduces uncertainties, and thus increasing adaptive capacity of agents in DRRM Council. Moreover, the marginalized
sector, youth, women, and religious groups, among others, may have representatives in the Council to incorporate a more
holistic and participatory DRRM.
Social networks are important in navigating DRRM organizations towards the edge of chaos. Local governments, being
at the forefront of DRRM initiatives, are by nature formal organizations. Their structures, roles, and processes are guided by
city ordinances and executive orders. However, with social networks, being a self-organized endeavor, DRRM organizations
can counterbalance the traditional bureaucracies and operate into a more adaptive state.
Through this study, local governments may be informed on how they should design knowledge sharing strategies that
would effectively mitigate risk and save more lives. This study serves as benchmark to other local governments in the
Philippines which are also vulnerable to disasters, and provides policy implications in developing collaboration mechanisms
of agents in DRRM Councils. By streamlining an adaptive knowledge sharing framework on disaster risk reduction,
communities can be more resilient and increase chances of survival in the complexity and uncertainty brought by disasters.
REFERENCES
[1] Bellanet International Secretariat, “Knowledge Management for Development Organisations”, Report of the proceedings of the
Knowledge Management Brighton Workshop held on at the University of Sussex, 26-28 June 2000.
[2] World Bank, World Development Report 1998/1999: Knowledge for Development. Oxford University Press: USA, 1999.
[3] S.D. Talisayon and J. P. Suministrado, “Community wealth rediscovered: Knowledge for poverty alleviation.” Center for Conscious
Living Foundation, Inc. and Peace Equity Access for Community Empowerment Foundation, Inc., 2008.
[4] B. Van den Hoof and J. A. De Ridder, “Knowledge sharing in context: The influence of organizational commitment, communication
climate, and CMC use on knowledge sharing,” Journal of Knowledge Management, vol. 8, no. 6, 2004, pp. 117-310.
[5] P. H. Christensen, “Knowledge sharing: Moving away from the obsession with best practices,” Journal of Knowledge Management,
vol. 11, no. 1, 2007, pp. 36-47.
[6] K. Sherif, and B. Xing, “Adaptive processes for knowledge creation in complex systems: The case of a global IT consulting firm,”
Information & Management, vol. 43, 2006, pp. 530–540.
[7] M. Metcalfe, “Knowledge sharing, complex environments, and small worlds,” Human Systems Management, vol. 24, 2005, pp. 185-
195.
[8] J. Ferguson, M. Huysman, and M. Soekijad, “Knowledge Management in Practice: Pitfalls and Potentials for Development,” World
Development, vol. 38, no. 12, 2010, pp. 1797–1810.
[9] J. E. Ferguson, K. Mchombu, and S. Cummings, “Management of knowledge for development: meta-review and scoping study,” in
IKM Working Paper No. 1. IKM Emergent Research Programme, European Association of Development Research and Training
Institutes (EADI): Bonn, Germany, 2008.
[10] S. Cummings, B. J. Regeer, W. S. Ho, and M. B. Zweekhorst, “Proposing a fifth generation of knowledge management for
development: investigating convergence between knowledge management for development and transdisciplinary research,”
Knowledge Management for Development Journal, vol. 9, no. 2, 2013, pp. 10-36.
[11] B. Ramalingam, H. Jones, T. Reba, and J. Young, J, Exploring the Science of Complexity: Ideas and Implications for Development
and Humanitarian Efforts. Overseas Development Institute: London, 2008.
[12] W. Medd, “Complexity Science and the Social World,” in Encyclopedia of Social Measurement, Volume 1, 2005.
[13] P. Cilliers, Complexity and Postmodernism: Understanding Complex Systems. London: Routledge, 1998.
[14] D. Larsen-Freeman, “Chaos/complexity science and second language acquisition,” Applied Linguistics, vol. 18, no. 2, 1997, pp. 141-
165.
[15] H. Janus and S. Paulo, Does aid stand on the age of chaos? The Current Curriculum. German Development Institute, 2013.

icshge.org
[16] B. McLelvey and P. Adriani, “Avoiding extreme risk before it occurs: A complexity science approach to incubation,” Risk
Management, vol. 12, no. 1, 2010, pp. 54–82.
[17] T. L. Sellnow, M. W. Seeger, and R. R. Ulmer, “Chaos Theory, Informational Needs, and Natural Disasters,” in 2000 Central States
Communication Association Annual Conference. Detroit, MI, 2000.
[18] D. Provitolo, E. Dubos-Paillard, and J. P. Müller, “Emergent human behaviour during a disaster: Thematic versus complex systems”,
2011.
[19] C. Folke, T. Hahn, P. Olsson, and J. Norberg, “Adaptive governance of social-ecological systems,” Annual Review of Environment
and Resources, vol. 30, 2005, pp. 441-473.
[20] R. M. Cutler, “Complexity Science and Knowledge-Creation in International Relations Theory, Institutional and Infrastructural
Resources,” in Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems, 2002.
[21] T. I. Sanders, and J. A. McCabe. “The Use of Complexity Science: A Survey of Federal Departments and Agencies, Private
Foundations, Universities, and Independent Education and Research Centers.” Washington Center for Complexity and Public Policy:
Washington, DC, 2003.
[22] C. Prell, Social Network Analysis: History, theory, and methodology. SAGE Pub, 2003.
[23] A. Mittal, “Enabling collaboration and broad communication through social media at the workplace,” Infosys Lab Briefings, vol. 10,
no. 1, 2012, pp. 15-20.
[24] S. Rehman and L. Marouf, “Communication Channels and Employee Characteristics: An Investigation,” Singapore Journal of
Library & Information Management, vol. 37, 2008.
[25] C. Webb and O. Bodin, “A network perspective on modularity and control of flow in robust systems,” In Norberg and Cumming
Complexity Theory for Sustainable Future. Columbia University Press, 2013.
[26] M. Granovetter, “The strength of weak ties,” American Journal of Sociology, vol. 78, no. 6, 1973, pp. 1360-1380.
[27] D.R Armitage, R. Plummer, F. Berkes, R. I. Arthur, A. T. Charles, I. J. Davidson-Hunt, A. P. Diduck, N. C., Doubleday, D. S.
Johnson, M. Marschke, P. McConney, E. W. Pinkerton, and E. K. Wollenberg, “Adaptive co-management for social-ecological
complexity,” Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, vol. 6, 2008.
[28] I. H. Lacson, “Disasters and early warning.” Retrieved last 07 December 2014 from http://www.rappler.com/thought-leaders/77261-
early-warning-disasters

icshge.org
Classifying Urban Climate Zones (UCZs) based on Spatial Statistical

Analyses
Lee, D.,1 and Oh, K.2,*
1
Research Institute of Spatial Planning and Policy, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea
2
Department of Urban Planning and Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea; * ksoh@hanyang.ac.kr
Abstract—The objective of this study is the classification of urban climate zones (UCZs) based on spatial statistical approaches
to provide key information for the establishment of thermal environments to improve urban planning. To achieve this, using
data from 246 Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs), air temperature maps in the summer of the study area were prepared
applying K-kriging interpolation analysis. In addition, 24 preliminary variables to classify UCZs were prepared by a 100m x
100m grid. Next, 6 influential urban spatial variables to classify UCZs were finalized using spatial regression analysis between
air temperature and potential variables. Finally, the UCZs of the study area were classified by applying K-mean clustering
analysis, and each spatial characteristic of the UCZs was identified. The results found that the accuracy of the air temperature
of the study area ranged from ±0.184℃ to ±0.824℃ with a mean 0.501 Root Mean Square Predict Error (RMSPE). In addition,
elevation, NDVI, commercial area, average height of buildings, terrain roughness class, H/W ratio, distance from subway
stations and distance from water spaces were identified as finalized variables to classify UCZs. Finally, a total of 8 types of
UCZs were identified and each zone showed a different urban spatial pattern and air temperature range. Based on the spatial
statistical analysis results, this study delineated clearer UCZs boundaries by applying influential urban spatial elements. The
methods presented in this study can be effectively applied to other cities to establish urban heat island counter measures that
have similar weather conditions and urban spatial characteristics.
Keywords—urban climate zones, spatial statistical analysis, air temperature, urban spatial variables
I. INTRODUCTION
The Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomena has been recognized as negative side effect of rapid urbanization. The main
causes of the urban heat island phenomenon include trapping of short and long wave radiation between buildings, decreasing
of long-wave radiative heat losses due to building construction, increasing storage of sensible heat in the construction materials,
anthropogenic heat released from human activities, and reduction of evapotranspiration potential (Oke, 1982; Rizwan, Dennis
& Liu, 2008). Various attempts have been made to mitigate UHI through urban planning and design. In order to achieve
effective urban heat island mitigation, it is necessary to understand and apply urban climatic information in urban planning
(Lee & Oh, 2018).
In this regard, the urban climate zone (UCZ) concept is useful as a UHI mitigation measure because it offers integrated
information on climate characteristics and related spatial elements (Scherer et al., 1999). UCZs are homogeneously classified
areas that distinguish climate characteristics based on urban structure, land cover, urban fabric and urban metabolism (Oke
2006). Considered fundamental research on UCZ, Chandler (1965), Auer Jr. (1978), Ellefsen (1991), and Oke (2006)
established the concept of UCZ and suggested major variables including topography, land cover, building forms etc. to classify
UCZs. Recently, as empirical studies, Houet & Pigeon (2011) investigated the usefulness of the UCZ concept as tool to
understand climate phenomena, and Lee & Oh (2018) identified influential variables to classify UCZs and delineated UCZs
boundaries based on statistical analyses.
Meanwhile, statistical approaches have been applied to identify the relationship between UHI and urban spatial
characteristics. However, the statistical approach has a limitation in presenting several physical phenomena (Mirzaei &
Haghighat, 2010). The major reason for this limitation is that installing climate measurement devices in entire urban areas is
impossible due to space constraints, installation time, and expensive operating costs. This lack of observational data makes it
difficult to analyze the relationship between the urban heat island phenomena and urban spatial characteristics. Another reason
is that conventional regression analysis such as the ordinary least squares (OLS) model is based on the assumption that
observations are independent, resulting in a failure to capture the spatial dependence of data when it is applied to geo-
referenced datasets (Li et al., 2011). Therefore, spatial regression analysis has been recently used to explain UHI, according
for spatial neighborhood effect (Chun & Guldmann, 2014).
In order to classify UCZs more accurately, in-depth investigation is essential on the relationship between urban climate
changes and urban spatial elements through systematic and scientific analysis. Therefore, the aim of this study is to: 1) identify
influential urban spatial elements to classify UCZs based on spatial statistical analyses, 2) delineate UCZs boundaries, and 3)
provide key information for urban planning and design to establish UHI mitigation measures.
II. MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study consists of four parts and each process is presented in Figure 1. First, observation data were obtained from 246
AWS, which were observed on cloudless days with gentle breeze wind speed (less than 5.4m/sec, based on Beaufort Wind
Scale). Using these data, air temperature maps of the study area were prepared by a Universal Kriging (UK) interpolation
method. Next, preliminary independent variables were prepared including topography, land use, land cover, urban form, human
activities, and locational characteristics to predict air temperature. Third, influential urban spatial elements were identified to
classify UCZs by spatial regression analysis. Finally, UCZs boundaries in the study area were delineated by K-means clustering

icshge.org
analysis. In addition, the spatial characteristics of each UCZ were investigated.
Figure 1. Study workflow.
A case study was conducted for Seoul, the capital of South Korea. Seoul is one of the densest cities in the world in which
21.5% (about 11 million inhabitants) of country’s total population reside. Seoul is also a representative heat island city that
has diverse spatial characteristics including land cover, land use, building form, etc. (Figure 2).
Figure 2. The study area and automatic weather stations (AWS).
A. Analysis of air temperature

The urban heat island intensity in a metropolitan city is pronounced and usually shows up 2-3 hours after sunset for
cloudless sky days and light winds (Landsberg, 1981). Considering such characteristics of an urban heat island, analysis time
points were selected to classify UCZs. In order to take into account the climate characteristics, three days per month in summer
(from June to August) with the lowest cloudiness and the lowest wind speed were investigated. Subsequently, considering
sunset times and weather conditions (under a cloudless sky and gentle breeze wind speed), 10:00pm, 11:00pm of 9 days in
summer in 2015 and 2016 were chosen for statistical analyses (Table 1).

icshge.org
TABLE I
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE 18 DAYS IN 2015 AND 2016
Min. air temperature Max. air temperature Mean air temperature Mean wind speed Meanamountofcloud(1~10)
June 6th 18.8°C 31.1°C 24.4°C 2.4m/sec 1.4
June 14th 18.3°C 37.7°C 22.5°C 3.3m/sec 3.9
June 30th 21.2°C 30.2°C 25.3°C 2.7m/sec 3.4
July 4th 21.6°C 32.3°C 26.8 °C 2.4m/sec 3.6
2015 July 27th 21.4°C 30.6°C 25.0°C 1.9m/sec 4.0
July 29th 30.1°C 33.5°C 28.6°C 2.5m/sec 2.5
August 8th 26.1°C 30.6°C 26.1°C 3.8m/sec 2.1
June 5th 17.3°C 32.2°C 24.7°C 1.7m/sec 3.5
June 9th 17.8°C 31.3°C 24.1°C 2.0m/sec 1.4
June 19th 20.3°C 29.3°C 1.90°C 2.7m/sec 4.4
July 8th 27.3°C 21.2°C 32.4 °C 1.8m/sec 0.1
2016 July 9th 27.7°C 23.2°C 33.1°C 1.8m/sec 3.1
July 19th 20.9°C 32.4°C 27.1°C 1.5m/sec 3.6
In order to delineate air temperature of entire study area, the UK interpolation method was applied. The UK interpolation
method is based on the Gaussian Process Regression Model (GPRM). The GPRM is computed as follows Eq. (1):
𝑦𝑦 = 𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 + 𝑍𝑍(𝑋𝑋) + 𝑒𝑒 (1)
Where F is the designed matrix, B is the regression coefficient, Z(X) is the Gaussian stochastic process which shows
average 0, and 𝜎𝜎 2 𝑅𝑅(𝑋𝑋) variance-covariance matrix, e is normal distributed observational error which shows an average 0 and
𝜎𝜎𝑒𝑒2 variance. Based on GRPM, additional explanatory variables are inputted in the UK interpolation method and the Eq. 2 is
as follows:
(2)
𝑦𝑦 = 𝛽𝛽0 + 𝛽𝛽2 (𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒) + 𝛽𝛽2 (𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠) + 𝛽𝛽3 (𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑟𝑟𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎) + 𝑍𝑍(𝑋𝑋) + 𝑒𝑒
In the case of Z(X), it is determined by latitude and longitude coordinates. To determine the appropriate interpolation
methods, data from 220 private AWS were interpolated using UK interpolation methods and they were compared with data
from 26 KMA AWSs. The results found that the Root Mean Square Predict Error (RMSPE) by the UK interpolation method
ranged from ±0.184℃ to ±0.824℃ with a mean 0.501℃. Among the 36 analysis time points, 10 time points which shows the
relatively low RMSPE (less than 0.45) were selected to delineated air temperature (Table 2). Thus, 10 air temperature maps of
2 and 3 hours after sunset were prepared, and finally, an average air temperature map was calculated from these maps.
TABLE II
10 TIME POINTS TO PREPARE AIR TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS (RMSE < 0.5)
Min. (℃) Max. (℃) Mean (℃) S.D RMSPE
2015 12pm, June 6 15.330 24.021 21.890 1.320 0.390
10pm, July 1 15.124 23.133 21.569 1.034 0.439
10pm, July 27 22.330 29.242 27.897 0.921 0.428
11pm, July 27 24.356 28.327 27.258 1.021 0.435
10pm, July 30 24.745 29.756 27.235 1.243 0.325
2016 10pm, June 5 16.312 25.021 22.814 1.245 0.371
10pm, July 8 16.532 25.721 23.024 1.221 0.390
11pm, August 10 29.751 29.751 28.019 1.251 0.184
10pm august 17 31.211 31.211 29.149 1.383 0.203
11pm, August 17 30.714 30.714 27.571 1.320 0.260
B. Selection of preliminary variables

Adopting the research of Lee & Oh (2018), this study classified urban spatial elements into 6 categories including
topology, land use, land cover, building characteristics, human activity, and locational characteristics. The number of total

icshge.org
preliminary variables is 23 (Table 3). Meanwhile, determining spatial resolution for is important in order to identify influential
variables and delineate UCZs boundaries. Considering the research of Houet & Pigeon (2011) and Lee & Oh (2018), this study
prepared preliminary variables to classify UCZs using a 100m grid resolution.
TABLE III
THE PRELIMINARY VARIABLES FOR THE AIR TEMPERATURE PREDICTING MODEL (ADOPTED FROM LEE AND OH, 2018)
Categories Variables (unit)
Topography Slope (degree), elevation (m)
Land use Residential, commercial, industrial, green space, water space area ratio (%)
Land cover Impervious surface area ratio (%), albedo (0-1), NDVI (0-1)
Average width of buildings (m), average height of buildings (m), The number of buildings, building surface fraction (%),
Urban form
floor area ratio (%), H/W ratio (number), terrain roughness class (number)
Human activities Population (person), number of vehicles (number)

Locational
Distance from green spaces (m), distance from water spaces (m), Distance from subway stations (m)
characteristics
C. Identification of influential urban spatial elements to classify UCZs

To select independent variables for an air temperature prediction model, correlation analysis was conducted to investigate
the interrelationship between preliminary variables and air temperature. The potential multi-collinearity among the preliminary
variables were also identified. Based on correlation analysis, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis was applied.
In order to reduce the heteroscedastic effect of wide ranging preliminary variables, the logarithm of the dependent variable,
Ln (air temperature), was used. A step-wise regression analysis method (forward selection approach) was applied to find
influential variables that would affect air temperature. Because the air temperature map was delineated by the interpolation
method, the Spatial Lag Model (SLM) was next estimated to control the effects of air-temperature in neighboring grids.
D. UCZ Classification
Using the influential urban spatial elements identified, the UCZs of the study area were classified by K-means clustering
analysis. Next, the appropriateness of the classified UCZs results of the study area were verified by an ANOVA test on air
temperature distribution. Then, characteristics of each UCZ were determined based on the K-means clustering analysis results.
Finally, the UCZs maps were prepared to explain the actual air temperature phenomenon.
III. THE CASE STUDY

A. Air temperature
Figure 3 presents air temperature maps of the study area. Air temperatures ranged from 24.14°C to 30.46 with an average
value of 27.23°C. The maximum temperature differences were analyzed and found to be more than 6.32°C. This confirmed
that the urban heat island phenomenon is relatively severe in the study area.
Figure 3. Air temperature in study area.

icshge.org
B. Identification of influential urban spatial elements to classify UCZs

Table 4 shows the correlation analysis results of air temperature and urban spatial elements. The most positively
correlated variable is the impervious surface area ratio, whereas the elevation showed the most negative correlation. In order
to create a model to predict air temperature, variables that had strong correlations were inputted for step-wise regression
analysis. In order to create a model to predict air temperature, the variables that had strong correlations were inputted for the
step-wise regression analysis using the statistical software (SPSS 21). The estimated model shows 0.603 of R2 and eight
variables were found to be significant at the 99% level and had signs consistent with the results of the correlation analysis. In
addition, due to the multi-collinearity diagnosis, all VIFs of the dependent variables were found to be less than 3, and it was
confirmed that there was no multi-collinearity problem in the models.
However, as a result of Lagrange multiplier diagnostics for spatial dependence, it was found that the OLS error terms
are spatially autocorrelated. In order to reduce this spatial auto correlation, SLM was next estimated to control the effects of
air temperature in neighboring grids. The results showed that R2 of SLM increased to 0.828, and coefficients of the independent
variables have the same signs as in the OLS models. In addition, 8 variables are all significant at the 1% level. Therefore, 8
variables including elevation, NDVI, commercial area, average height of buildings, terrain roughness class, H/W ratio, distance
from subway stations and distance from water spaces were included as significant variables to classify UCZs (Table 5).
TABLE IV
CORRELATION ANALYSIS RESULTS BETWEEN AIR TEMPERATURE AND URBAN SPATIAL ELEMENTS
Categories Correlation coefficients
Topography Elevation (-.681**), slope (-.621**)
Land use Green space (-.501**), commercial (.310**), residential (.284**), Industrial (.037**)
Land cover Impervious surface area ratio (.552**), NDVI (-.603**), albedo (-.461**)
SVF (-.400**), average width of buildings (.356**), average height of buildings (.309**), the number of buildings (.331**),
Urban form
building surface fraction (.437**), terrain roughness class (.559**), H/W ratio (.187**)
Locational
Distance from green spaces (.411**), distance from subway stations (-.670**), distance from water spaces (-.047**)
characteristics
N: 52,961, **: p<0.01
TABLE V
REGRESSION ANALYSIS RESULTS (OLS AND SLM)
OLS SLM
Coefficient t Coefficient z
T Elevation -1.914E-04*** -85.345 -9.936E-05*** -58.788
LU Commercial 4.252-07*** -15.332 1.775E-07*** 4.435
LC NDVI -0.036*** -15.332 -0.015*** -10.655
UF TRC 0.027*** 45.107 0.010*** 27.525
AHB 8.861E-05*** 8.548 3.561E-07*** 4.938
H/W 1.982E-04*** 6.504 1.982E-04*** 4.585
LoC DS -1.775E-05*** -69.509 -7.893E-05*** -44.6821
DW 4.204E-06*** 19.503 2.544E-06*** 17.2331
constant 3.353*** 3783.853 1.542 162.049
ρ - 0.540 190.521
Log-likelihood 112,643 133,591
R 2
0.603 0.828
N: 52,961, *** Statistically significant at the 1% level
(T: Topography, LU: Land Use, LC: Land Cover, UF: Urban Form, LoC: Locational Characteristics, TRC: Terrain Roughness Class, AHB: Average Height
of Buildings, DS: Distance from Subway Station, DW: Distance from Water spaces)
C. The results of UCZ classification

Eight different UCZs were determined (Table 6), and the ANOVA test results showed that each classified UCZ is in a
statistically different group (Figure 4). Based on the cluster results, UCZs can be classified into mountainous areas (cluster 1),
hilly areas and urban forest (cluster 4), high-rise built up areas with very a high H/W ratio (cluster 3), mid-rise built up areas
with a high H/W ratio (cluster 5), mid-rise built up areas without green spaces (cluster 6), high-rise built up areas with a high
H/W ratio (cluster 2), high-rise built up areas with various building heights (cluster 7), and commercial areas without green
spaces (Figure 5).

icshge.org
TABLE VI
CLASSIFICATION RESULTS OF UCZS
Cluster
Cluster 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Factor (N:4,868) (N:40) (N:183) (N:13,843) (N:1,214) (N:20,007) (N:4,280) (N:8,526)
Elevation 2.583 -.000 -.039 .121 -.183 -.390 -.444 -.506
DS 1.988 .062 -.075 .412 -.203 -.400 -.468 -.599
TRC -1.154 -.187 -.155 -1.164 .142 .616 .522 .825
DS .471 .113 .052 -.173 .220 .102 -.405 -.058
NDVI 1.483 .621 .501 .957 .048 -.573 -.411 -.870
H/W ratio -.491 18.211 9.461 -.410 2.692 .050 .200 .056
Commercial -.525 -.528 -.460 -.500 -.432 -.284 -.311 2.010
AHB -.749 3.673 2.157 -.639 1.546 -.066 2.415 .125
Figure 4. Air temperature distribution of UCZs.
Figure 5. Classification result of UCZs.

icshge.org
IV. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Through a series of statistical analyses, this study identified more detailed and clearer UCZ boundaries (100m×100m)
and explained statistically significant urban spatial characteristics to understand urban climate phenomena. Applying spatial
regression analyses, influential urban spatial elements causing air temperature increase and their effects were concretely
investigated. In addition, the potential areas where urban heat islands occur were delineated using UCZ maps.
The UCZ classification based on spatial statistical analyses conducted in this study has the following usefulness: First,
this study delineated air-temperature maps which relatively shows high accuracy using an interpolation method. Due to a lack
of observation data, the conventional interpolation method to delineate urban air temperature was robust. As a result, accuracy
analysis on the relationship between air temperature and urban spatial characteristics was very difficult. In fact, most previous
studies used land surface temperature data to identify the effects of urban spatial characteristics. By applying a number of
AWSs data, this study overcame such a limitation, and a more direct effect on air-temperature was investigated. In addition,
using a number of AWSs data, applying the UK interpolation method which consider effects of elevation and water space,
more accuracy air-temperature map was delineated. Such an air temperature analysis method will enhance the efficiency and
accuracy of investigating climate phenomena.
Second, by applying spatial regression analysis, influential variables that affect air temperature were identified, and their
effects on air temperature were investigated. Thus, this study suggested integrated information on climate characteristics and
related urban spatial elements. The outcomes of this study can provide urban planners with practical information to improve
the urban thermal environment. Moreover, the results of this study will enable urban planners to determine what kind of
mitigation alternatives should be employed to reduce urban heat islands.
Finally, considering the distribution of influential variables has an effect on air temperature, more detailed UCZs
boundaries were delineated, and the spatial characteristics of each UCZ was investigated. Through the entire process, potential
urban heat islands areas and the causes of their occurrence were identified. Such results will enable urban planners to determine
which areas should be preferentially managed to enhance the thermal environment.
The methods presented in this study can be effectively applied to other cities that have similar weather conditions and
urban spatial patterns. If more urban spatial characteristics including slope, vegetation, soil are known, more accurate air
temperature analysis will be possible. Furthermore, if other spatial regression models including the spatial error model and
general model are applied, a more concrete relationship between air temperature and urban spatial characteristics will be
understood. Also, if other climate factors including wind speed and relative humidity are considered in the classification of
UCZs, more accurate and useful information can be provided for UHI mitigation measures.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This research was supported by a grant (18ADUP-B102560-04) from the Architecture and Urban Development Research
Program (AUDP) funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of the Korean Government.
REFERENCES
Chun, B. & Guldmann, J.M. 2014, 'Spatial statistical analysis and simulation of the urban heat island in high-density central cities', Landscape and Urban
Planning, vol. 125, pp. 76-88.
Ellefsen, R. 1991, 'Mapping and measuring buildings in the canopy boundary layer in ten U.S. cities', Energy and Buildings, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 1025-49.
Houet, T. & Pigeon, G. 2011, 'Mapping urban climate zones and quantifying climate behaviors – An application on Toulouse urban area (France)',
Environmental Pollution, vol. 159, no. 8, pp. 2180-92.
Auer Jr., A.H.A. 1978, 'Correlation of Land Use and Cover with Meteorological Anomalies', Journal of Applied Meteorology, vol. 17, no. 5, pp. 636-43.
Chandler, T.J. (1965). The climate of London, Hutchinson.
Landsberg, H.E. 1981, The Urban Climate. Academic Press.
Lee, D. & Oh, K. 2018, 'Classifying urban climate zones (UCZs) based on statistical analyses', Urban Climate, vol. 24, pp. 503-16.
Li, J., Song, C., Cao, L., Zhu, F., Meng, X. & Wu, J. 2011, 'Impacts of landscape structure on surface urban heat islands: A case study of Shanghai, China',
Remote Sensing of Environment, vol. 115, no. 12, pp. 3249-63.
Mirzaei, P.A. & Haghighat, F. 2010, 'Approaches to study Urban Heat Island – Abilities and limitations', Building and Environment, vol. 45, no. 10, pp.
2192-201.
Oke, T.R. 1982, 'The energetic basis of the urban heat island', Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol. 108, no. 455, pp. 1-24.
Oke, T.R. 2006, 'Towards better scientific communication in urban climate', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 84, no. 1, pp. 179-90.
Rizwan, A.M., Dennis, L.Y.C. & Liu, C. 2008, 'A review on the generation, determination and mitigation of Urban Heat Island', Journal of Environmental
Sciences, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 120-8.
Scherer, D., Fehrenbach, U., Beha, H.D. & Parlow, E. 1999, 'Improved concepts and methods in analysis and evaluation of the urban climate for optimizing
urban planning processes', Atmospheric Environment, vol. 33, no. 24, pp. 4185-93.

icshge.org
Understanding the Disaster Risk by Analysing Historical Situations:

Case Study Aceh Tsunami and Haiti Earthquake
Mustofa, I.
Water System and Global Change Group, Wageningen University and Research, the Netherlands
Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor, Indonesia; ikrom.mustofa@wur.nl
Abstract—Risk from the calamities is no longer defined as the natural occurrence. Different with hazards, disaster risk includes
the susceptibility and exposure among local people in the affected area. This study aims to understand the risk in such areas
by analysing certain socio-political situations deemed as the historical aspects resulting the occurrence of disaster. We used
the pressure and release (PAR) model as our framework distinguished by the progression of vulnerability and progression of
safety. To analyse the data, we used the literature reviews from journals, newspapers, and policy papers. We analysed the
historical situations including physical, social, and political situations in two case study areas, Aceh and Haiti. We also tried
to compare the similarities and differences of factors leading the disaster risk in those case study areas, including the ways to
cope with. Furthermore, we analysed the solutions to deal with the multiple problems on the progression of safety. Research
revealed that case study areas suffered worse impacts of disasters due to their specific historical situations. As 2004 Aceh
Tsunami happened, many aspects took responsibility to those risk, such as the government instability, local conflict, lack of
local institutions, and lack of preparedness leading to greater disaster risk. Also 2010 Haiti Earthquake resulted massive
impacts in many parts of the country due to the government instability and the absence of preparedness. The results also
showed that the different areas could have various situations affecting disaster. Additionally, the progression of safety could
be implemented as the solution to decrease the impact of disaster by human-related actions. Hence, the findings of this study
could have strong contributions for policy makers to analyse the triggering factors of disasters as well as to decrease the impact
of disaster itself.
Keywords—disaster risk, Aceh tsunami, Haiti earthquake, PAR model
I. INTRODUCTION
D ISASTERS happen around the world, resulting in material losses and casualties. Disaster risk is getting high as the
impact of hazards, climate change, global change, and other social problems. In certain developing countries, such as
Indonesia and Haiti, many calamities followed by great devastated. In disaster trend, the occurrence of hydro-meteorological
disasters is getting higher, such as floods, landslides, forest fires, etc. However, although the appearance of geological disasters
such as earthquake and tsunami are rare, the impacts of those disasters were numerous. It is appointed by hundreds of people
who passed away, and thousands people were affected, followed by heavy devastated of areas.
It is essential to be understood that risk from the calamities is no longer defined as the natural occurrence. Different from
hazards, disaster risk includes susceptibility and exposure among local people in the affected area. Many problems had led to
disasters. In this paper, the case studies from two affected areas from great disasters are studied. As 2004 Aceh Tsunami
happened, many aspects took responsibility to those risk, such as government instability, local conflict, lack of local
institutions, and lack of preparedness leading to greater disaster risk. Also, the 2010 Haiti Earthquake resulted in massive
impacts in many parts of the country due to the government instability and the absence of preparedness. Hence, the social
production of vulnerability needs to be seen with at least the same degree of importance that is devoted to understanding and
addressing natural hazards.
This study aims to understand the risk in such areas by analysing certain socio-political situations deemed as the historical
aspects resulting in the occurrence of the disaster. We used the pressure and release (PAR) model as our framework
distinguished by the progression of vulnerability and progression of safety.
II. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

A. Literature Review of Pressure and Release (PAR) Model
The PAR model is a causal type of disaster management model which suggests some underlying causes of disasters
through the analysis of the nature of the hazard thus distinguishing a critical element in the study of the interaction of disaster
stages. The PAR is utilised by the development of two processes, which are the progression of vulnerability and the progression
of safety. The former gives insight into the development of vulnerability while the latter provides how safety can be achieved
[23]. The PAR Model is distinguished into several phases, which are root causes, dynamic pressures, and unsafe conditions.
Specific root causes form vulnerability distinguished by economic, demographic and political situations. These
conditions, of course, impact the resources (allocation and distribution). They are a result of economic, social, and political
structures, and also legal definitions and enforcement of the ideological order (i.e. right and gender). Root causes are also
related to the function of the state, and with good governance, the law and the administration. Root causes reveal the
distribution of power in a society.
Dynamic pressures bring the activities and processes of root causes into unsafe conditions as manifestations of general
underlying economic, social and political patterns. Dynamic pressures form unsafe conditions that they have to be considered
with the different types of hazards facing people. The processes of dynamic pressures operate to channel root causes into
unsafe conditions enable us to analyse how the forces play themselves out ‘on the ground’, in a strong spatial and temporal

icshge.org
sense.
Unsafe conditions explained the vulnerability of local people that is expressed in time and space connected to a hazard.
Also, unsafe conditions depend on the prosperity level among local people, and how this level varies between government
level (including households and individuals). It is essential also to consider the pattern of access to tangible resources (e.g.
cash, shelter, food stocks, agricultural equipment) and intangible things (support, knowledge and sources of assistance, morale
and the ability to function in a crisis).
B. Research Methodology
Analysing the overview of the study areas is essential to undertake the situation happened. It will encompass its history,
geographic location, government and socio-economic characteristics. Many related papers and journals related to those
disasters were used to analyse the situations in two case studies. Furthermore, many components were explained as the
historical situations before catastrophe to address the vulnerability of both Aceh people and Haitians and to set the context for
the findings. Finally, recommendations will be forwarded by the development of the release aspect of the PAR to show the
way forward for less vulnerability and consequently, better resilience.
III. RESEARCH RESULT

A. Aceh Tsunami
1) Background of the Area
This case study examines the effects of the 2004 tsunami in Aceh, Indonesia. On December 26, 2004, an earthquake
extending over 1,300 kilometres and measuring between 9.1 and 9.3 on the Richter scale took place 30 kilometres deep in the
Indian Ocean. While this was one of the most massive measured earthquakes in human history and it led to the destruction of
many buildings, it was the following waves of the tsunami that did the most damage. The tsunami killed between 250,000 and
300,000 in countries bordering the Indian Ocean [6]. Aceh was hit the hardest of all, having between 130,000 and 150,000
killed and over half a million people displaced. The tsunami also resulted in around $4,5 billion in damages or losses [34].
The first of the three waves hit the east-side of Aceh just 10 minutes after the earthquake. It was, however, the second
wave, that arrived 5 minutes later that was the most destructive. The tsunami wave varied in height between 10 and 30 meters
and reached several kilometres inland [3, 26]. Tsunamis are not a new phenomenon in Aceh. Over the centuries several
tsunamis have reached Aceh. The difference in unpreparedness for a tsunami is visible between different local ethnicities.
Several reports described the information of people picking up the fish left behind by the retreating sea, unaware of the
impending tsunami, while some indigenous peoples have been reported to flee in time and therefore have a much higher
survivor rate [34, 14].
The tsunami was not the only problem that Aceh has to face. Another “disaster” is the conflict between the Free Aceh
Movement (GAM) and the Indonesian state. Aceh as a region that has seen various forms of conflict revolving around
autonomy from the Dutch colonial government and later from the Indonesian state. We argue that this conflict, specifically in
the last thirty years, had a significant impact on Aceh’s vulnerability and was a significant reason the damage in the area, both
physical and societal, was so extensive.
2) Progression of Vulnerability
Figure 1. Progression of Vulnerability of the 2004 Aceh Tsunami.

icshge.org
As the PAR diagram presented above (Figure 1), the assessment of vulnerability starts from the root causes which indicate
the underlying problems. In our case study, root causes could be social, economic, political and natural aspects that give rise
to vulnerability and affect the distribution of resources among different parts and groups of people. The root causes form the
basis for the next step in the model: the dynamic pressures. Dynamic pressures can be defined as the processes and activities
that change the impacts of root causes into vulnerability [1]. These dynamic pressures include for instance a decreased access
to resources, lack of local institutions, lack of community-based early warning system and destruction of mangroves. The
dynamic pressures lead to several unsafe conditions, which are described in the last phase of the PAR diagram. Such unsafe
conditions could, for instance, be weak and fragile local economic circumstances, problems in the physical environment, the
creation of harmful livelihoods and issues in public actions.
a) Hydrology and Ecology

The coastal ecosystems and their importance regarding coastal protection is slowly gaining recognition in Aceh, but while
some of these ecosystems are already supposed to be protected from human destruction, they are still danger of disappearing
[27, 22]. While mangroves were once very abundant, currently there are only a few patches of mangrove forest remaining.
Most of them have been removed to make way for tambaks: water basins built for shrimp cultivation. The diversity of the
forests that remain are quite poor as well. Coastal reefs are under stress by for instance pollution or sedimentation leading to
sometimes complete loss of these reefs [22, 5]. The same happens to seagrass beds, that suffer under pollution, siltation and
mechanical damage by for instance trawling [5].
b) Spatial planning
The spatial planning was done through Coastal Zone Management (CZM) and was carried out by the national government
until 1999. Provincial and local government agencies had very little say about the management. After 1999 the government
became more decentralized, and the provincial and local government got more authority over their local resources. CZM,
however, is still mostly managed by over 20 different agencies, of which only three are on a more local level [9]. Coordination
between these agencies and between different programmes was almost non-existent [9]. In Aceh, because of the conflict
between the Indonesian government and GAM, some agencies had little to no control or were barely functioning. These were,
for instance, the National Land Agency (BPN), which regulated land ownership, or the General Courts [13]. However, the call
for local autonomy of Aceh has provided them with increasing authority of their resources [27].
c) Physical infrastructure
Before the 2004 tsunami happened, the people of Aceh inhabited various buildings both engineered and non-engineered
[29]. During the tsunami, almost all types of buildings were destroyed (ibid.). A significant number of non-engineered
reinforced concrete structures were also structurally damaged, especially in first floor columns. Previous research also
explained that the damage done by the seismic disasters were not only to residential housings, but also government buildings
which were multi-story reinforced concrete structures [29]. These buildings however also had the poor seismic design. It was
different with engineered reinforced real frames which appear to have sufficient strength facing the tsunami. Light timber
frame buildings were extremely vulnerable to tsunami wave pressures. These buildings type were the devastated infrastructures
during the tsunami.
d) Social Aspects
The conflict between the Indonesian state and the GAM separatists had been going on for thirty years just before the
tsunami [24]. The province of Aceh has known social conflict and unrest from the days of Dutch colonial rule, and the most
recent conflict could be seen as the contemporary version of these earlier struggles against the Java-based colonial government
which continued against the independent Indonesian state. During the conflict, the separatist claims became not just territorial
but also religious, social and economic [14]. About 90% of the 340,000 people living in Aceh are of ethnic Acehnese descent
and have a cultural and historical heritage that they feel have been neglected and even disrespected by the Indonesian state.
Thirty years of conflict left a profound impact on Acehnese society. Human rights abuses from both sides of the conflict
and policies from the government such as martial law, the continued disrespect for Aceh’s cultural and religious customs.
Also, the influx of Javanese happened because of transmigration, seen by many Acehnese as an attempt to ‘Indonesianize’
Acehnese, had caused widespread poverty, distrust and hated towards the Indonesian government and sustained the fight for
independence. It is argued that the conflict created a so-called ‘conflict trap’ where the violence, in turn, weakened security
and the institutional capacities, reduced growth, lowered income, destroys infrastructure and redirects resources from
development [24], meaning that the conflict was detrimental to the resilience of communities. From this perspective, the
reasons for the large number of victims lie not only in geographical closeness to the epicentre of the earthquake, but also in
coastward population displacements, demanding access to land and resources, poverty, food insecurity, physical violence and
torture because of the conflict [14].
e) State & politics

UNDP (2006) explained that many areas which were damaged by the tsunami were also affected by conflict both vertical
and horizontal. Originally, Aceh together with the Yogyakarta province were two regions among many areas in Indonesia

icshge.org
which are so-called special regions of Aceh (Daerah Istimewa Aceh). Because of decentralisation and also special autonomy,
Aceh has been granted a larger part of the revenue from its natural resources, rather than other provinces in Indonesia. Before
the tsunami, the coordinating agency at province level was the inter-sectoral coordinating body (Satkorlak), which have a full
dependency on the provincial government [31]. Below the provincial level, there was ‘satlak’ as the coordinating body at the
districts. Technically, 'satkorlak' and 'satlak' often created unclear situations by miscommunication and misconception in the
implementation of mandates.
f) Management policy
Disaster management is crucial especially for a disaster-prone country such as Indonesia. Indonesia is vulnerable to
natural hazards both hydro-meteorological and geological [30]. Unfortunately, Indonesia did not apply disaster risk reduction
as the main priority to face various hazards before the tsunami in 2004. There was no particular policy in place to prepare for
all phases of disaster risk reduction, such as mitigation and prevention. This situation resulted in a high number of casualties,
destroying infrastructure, and emergencies when the tsunami happened in 2004.
B. Haiti Earthquake
1) Background of the Area
On January 12th 2010, a 35 seconds earthquake struck Haiti measuring 7.0 on the Richter scale, and it was one of the
most devastating natural disasters of the last decade [25]. The epicentre of the earthquake was placed at 35 km from Port-au-
Prince's Metropolitan area and damaged the most populated areas of the nation. In the following eight days, Haiti was struck
by 50 aftershocks with a magnitude of an average of 4.0 further worsening the situation [19].
Haiti is situated in the island of Hispaniola between the Caribbean Sea and the North Atlantic Ocean with a total area of
27,750 square km. It takes one-third of the island, while the Dominican Republic covers the rest on it. The geographic location
of Haiti also makes it prone to geological incidents as the Haitian part of the island of Hispaniola sits sandwiched between two
fault lines known as strike-slip faults between the North American Tectonic the Caribbean plates [17].
According to [20], the disaster resulted in thousands of deaths and billions of USD worth of damage, while the country’s
rank lowered from 145th to 168th on United Nation’s Human Development Index. The government capacity was also
debilitated because many civil servants were killed, official buildings, main infrastructures and energy sources were destroyed,
inducing an overwhelming job loss [20].
Once called The Jewel of the Antilles, Haiti was the wealthiest colony in the world and provided approximately 50% of
the national product of France by many natural exports. Meanwhile, France, refined and sold the exportation from Haiti to the
rest of Europe in the 18th century [8]. One of the main reasons for this high productivity was the slave labour which was
described as the most brutal in the Caribbean by many documents of western slavery. The system of slavery had freedom
earning possibility by the slaves which depended on their exceptional work, that is the reason why it worked well and had high
productivity [8]. Subsequently, this led to a long slave struggle led by Jean-Jacques Dessalines, who brought Haiti’s
independence on the 1st of January 1804, resulting in the only successful slave revolution in the history [15].
This historic moment helped to build national pride and solidarity among social distinctions in Haiti, but despite this
growing nationalism, Haiti’s leaders and most of the population were set on different courses, resulting in the destruction of
physical and human capital through revolutionary wars [33].
The revolution was seen as a dangerous precedent to other colonised states, which led to an international boycott of
Haitian goods and commerce, pioneering the first blow to the Haitian economy [8]. The next blow to the economy was the
150 million Franc debt to be paid to France for indemnities which took decades to pay, including interests [8].
More recent overview of Haiti’s history shows prevalent poverty levels that led it to be considered one of the poorest
states in the Western Hemisphere [28]. The indicator reflects that half of the population is living in poverty, affecting their
social conditions such as literacy, life expectancy, infant mortality and child malnutrition, which caused households to adopt
several coping strategies [10]. The food restriction strategy affects hunger thus indirectly affecting productivity due to
inadequate physical conditions [10].
Throughout the occupation of Haiti by the United States (1915-1934) up to the present day, the political system in Haiti
is used to secure personal gain and subsequently contributing to corruption [33]. Before the earthquake, politics in Haiti was
marked by uncertainty and a deep divide between the executive and opposition parties. When the earthquake occurred in
January, the country was in the middle of the president’s election (elections in November), and it raised the conflict around
the question whether these elections should be postponed or not [18].
2) Progression of Vulnerability
As the PAR diagram presented above (Figure 2), the assessment of vulnerability is started from root causes including
social, economic, political and natural aspects. It was clear that Haiti had straitened circumstances from almost all aspects such
as severe international market, located on faults and tectonic plates, political instability and corruption. It caused failures so
called with dynamic pressures, for instances lack education and water sanitation and poor governance. In the last phase, this
PAR diagram explains more about previous conditions that exacerbate the situations which called unsafe conditions. Those
can be the problems in the physical environment, local economy, social relations and public action. Suffered from these adverse
conditions, while earthquake came, it would be a big disaster.

icshge.org
Figure 2. Progression of vulnerability of the 2010 Haiti Earthquake.
a) Physical planning
In Haiti, the urbanisation rate was very high which resulted in a population density of more than 300 people per square
kilometre putting massive pressure on land and overcrowded conditions. Meagre income (GDP was put at 2$ per capita in
2009), lack of space and unclear land tenure further consolidated low housing quality. Also, the construction sector in Haiti
was under rapid and unregulated development before the earthquake. It thus can be established that neither the location of
dwellings nor the various construction methods were considerate of multiple risks like earthquakes [2]. In this regard, it is
complicated to conclude that Haiti’s planning measures that make it apt for the prevention/mitigation stage were adequate or
even tolerable.
b) Engineering & construction (infrastructures)

The aftermath of the devastating earthquake has revealed that there is almost a complete absence of seismic detailing in
construction. Seismic design is missing from the engineering curriculum in Haiti. It also appears there is a lack of building
code and engineers who want to use systems use the French code (Beton Arme aux Etats Limites (BAEL)) which ironically
does not have seismic design provisions [12]. Despite the existence of laws on building permits and inspections, they were
hardly implemented. The majority of the buildings were constructed in non-ductile concrete, unreinforced masonry, and
unconfined masonry which are all inadequate for earthquake-prone areas. Making matters worse is the utilisation of poor
quality materials, poor workmanship, poor maintenance, and use of corrosive materials all resulting in the bad performance in
case of the occurrence of the earthquake as it was evident [12].
Almost all the building in Haiti were mostly brittle and weak and not designed for earthquakes. Although many buildings
were standing, nearly all did poorly [12]. All these steps show that the DRR regarding mitigation was almost non-existent
before the 2010 earthquake.
c) Socioeconomic situations
Haiti’s education was insufficient in this aspect. It was reflected by the unfamiliarity of residents of potential future
hazards. Even engineers in Haiti were not educated on seismic designs [12]. In regards to education and awareness,
environmental education was part of the curriculum and paves for inclusion to the DRR; however, it is not yet included. There
are NGOs involved in bringing awareness of disaster risks and the DRR to the public and schools in certain areas [16]. Though
all these were promising activities, their significance is questionable considering the early stages they were on before the
earthquake in question and the significant impact of the earthquake which was not precisely of exceptional magnitude. It was
only after the 2010 earthquake that Haiti started training seismologists and installing seismometers [21]. Hence, expertise and
research were not a priority in Haiti at that time, although it could have helped in prevention and mitigation.
Haiti’s economy could hardly accommodate all these necessities. The country was riddled with chronic poverty with
65% of its population under the international poverty line and ad-hoc urbanisation [11]. It diverted the focus from preparation
for a disaster (that was predicted to come hindering necessary action for overcoming the possible catastrophic effects of
catastrophe) than of daily survival.
d) Management & institutions

It can be safely assumed that Haiti’s sectoral laws contain provisions relevant to disaster risk management, but it cannot

icshge.org
be concluded that these were fairly implemented. Economic constraints have hindered the growth of institutional structures
proposed under law especially at municipal and local levels [16]. The National Risk and Disaster Management Plan and the
Emergency Response Plan which are Haiti’s key national documents governing the disaster risk management system have
only been in place since 2001. Though insignificant progress was made for the first few years after their introduction, Haiti
had made progress in this regard since 2005 with development and installation of structures at all levels of government [16].
Haiti had no organised assessment team to assess various aspects of a disaster. It was also reflected in the lack of data on
previous disasters which would have been beneficial in avoiding uncontrollable confusion once a disaster has happened [7]. It
was also explained in the lack of a backup plan which was evident when various facilities were destroyed by the earthquake
[4].
C. Possible Progression of Safety among Two Case Study Areas
From our analysis, we now come to what we see as opportunities for change. These opportunities have been
conceptualised from the situation as it is now and as it has been shaped post-disaster. We see several opportunities for change
we would like to address to make Aceh and Haiti of today more resilient towards future disasters. We have come up with two
solutions, one from a more technical perspective and one from a more social perspective. To better explain our solutions and
why we think they are essential, we are using the ‘progression of safety’ or release aspect from the PAR model. The release
aspect of the Pressure and Release (PAR) model is utilised here to forward recommendations to achieve safety and thus,
resilience. The analysis for progression of safety is done based on the findings of the PAR on the progression of safety as
already mentioned and is depicted in Figure 4 below.
The occurrence of the Aceh Tsunami and Haiti Earthquake resolved problems as the opposite role with the progression
of vulnerability. It just started from how to achieve safe conditions as the answer of vulnerable circumstances, for instances
improving the physical environment, local economy and social relations, as well as public action. As a result, it can decrease
dynamic pressures and try to encourage the development of several sectors and also manage the policies and practices. In the
last phase, the progression of safety would address to deal with root causes such as the democratisation of governance,
development in the international community and the prevention of most critical locations from hazards. On the other side, by
using the PAR model from safety progression, it clear that risks can be reduced by several actions.
TABLE I
PROGRESSION OF SAFETY FROM BOTH CASE STUDIES
Progression of Safety Case Study 1 (Aceh Tsunami) Case Study 2 (Haiti Earthquake)
Achieve safe Physical environment: Physical environment:
conditions • Resilient buildings and infrastructures • Develop and use seismic building codes
• Develop barriers • Change lands use planning
Local economy and social relations: Local economy and social relations:
• Organised fishing • Diversify income opportunities
• Strengthen livelihoods • Strengthen livelihoods
• Traditional knowledge to identify tsunami Public actions:
Public actions: • Improve disaster preparedness through schools and
• Improve disaster preparedness through schools and increase local capacity
increase local capacity
Reduce pressures Development of: Development of:
• Training and education • Training and education
• Build back better • Adequate infrastructures and public institutions
• Adequate infrastructures and public institutions • Ethical standard in public life
Policies and practices: Policies and practices:
• Develop disaster management policy for tsunami and • Disaster management governmental structure
other disasters • Enhance framework for facilitation and regulation of
international aid
Address root causes Social and political: Social and political:
• New organisations • Democratization of governance
• Increase the access of vulnerable groups to resources and • Accesses of vulnerable groups to resources and
structures structures
• Managing the conflict Economic:
Economic: • Develop voice in international community
• NGOs/donor to support livelihoods Natural:
• Market availability • Avoid most critical locations
Natural:
• Create buffer zone
• Avoid dangerous places
Reduce hazard Range of measures to reduce certain hazards Range of measures to reduce certain hazards
IV. DISCUSSION: SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TWO STUDY AREAS

After analysing two case studies affected by great disasters, there are certain similarities and differences from those case
studies. It is clear that both cases have similar situations before big disasters happened, such as conflicts. Also, both Haiti and
Aceh suffered Low economic levels worsening the impacts of calamities. Collapsed and instability of governance was also
deemed as a significant problem before disasters. Besides, International assistance and aid as the response were needed from
two case studies. Besides similarities, historical situations in Aceh have differences with Haiti. After disasters, Aceh received

icshge.org
more aid and international assistance than Haiti. Besides, political change in Aceh was getting better, rather than in Haiti. The
national meeting to reduce the tensions of conflicts were done in Aceh. Haiti suffered more collapsed after earthquakes.
However, the implementation of the framework in this study contains several limitations. The framework is unable to
quantify the contribution of each factors affecting disaster. Somehow it is tough for policymakers to decide the policy without
quantification scales. Some severe implications have been shown as the impact of the uncertainties in knowledge concerning
how vulnerability is explained underlying causes or pressures. In practice, the lack of understanding and uncertainties impacted
the decision makers and also the policy as they suffered the scarce resources. Furthermore, the condition may address the
pressures and unsafe conditions without the contribution from both social causes of vulnerability as well as the more distant
root causes.
Finally, this study could Increase awareness among local people. It is because the historical problems delivering from the
framework are closely related to the community’s issues. Previously, before the disaster happened, local people were often not
aware of their activities triggering the disaster. By explaining the root causes of unsafe situations, they may have more reasons
to believe. Furthermore, this study is also essential for policymakers to decide the possible measures.
V. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

The use of the PAR framework has revealed critical information regarding the historical components leading to disasters.
It is clear that the case study areas suffered worse impacts of catastrophe due to their specific historical situations. The
December 2004 tsunami was devastating for the province of Aceh. The high level of victims and damage were done to society
was not only due to the unique nature of the tsunami but that three decades of conflict between the GAM and the Indonesian
state significantly hampered Aceh’s resilience. Its effects could be seen in both technical and societal aspects as physical
infrastructure, livelihoods and local economy were all weakened. The 2010 earthquake in Haiti is known more from the
catastrophic devastation it brought about. This unmatched devastation can be accounted mostly to the nation’s vulnerability.
Haiti’s vulnerability has been propagating for centuries now. It has its roots causes in international powers which Haiti could
not compete with and ultimately the poor governance which has been the characteristic of the country after its independence
in the early 19th century. These factors resulted in segregated society distinguished by poverty, illiteracy, malnutrition and so
on that; all contributed to the building up of the country’s vulnerability.
Finally, the findings of this study could have strong contributions for policymakers to analyse the triggering factors of
disasters as well as to decrease the impact of the disaster itself by employing the progression of safety and recommendation
after the disaster happened. It is clear that post-disaster situations often created the opportunity to change.
REFERENCES
Awal, M.A., 2015. Vulnerability to disaster: Pressure and release model for climate change hazards in Bangladesh. International Journal of Environmental
Monitoring and Protection, 2(2), pp.15-21.
Bellerive, J.M., 2010. Haiti Earthquake PDNA: Assessment of damage, losses, general and sectorial needs. Annex to the Action Plan for National Recovery
and Development of Haiti, Haiti.
Borrero, J.C., 2005. Field data and satellite imagery of tsunami effects in Banda Aceh. Science, 308(5728), pp.1596-1596.
Charles, J, 2010. Haiti’s Lax Regulations Yield Unsafe Buildings. Retrieved from http://www.miamiherald.com
Cochard, R., 2011. The 2004 tsunami in Aceh and Southern Thailand: coastal ecosystem services, damages and resilience. In The Tsunami Threat-Research
and Technology. InTech.
Cochard, R., Ranamukhaarachchi, S.L., Shivakoti, G.P., Shipin, O.V., Edwards, P.J. and Seeland, K.T., 2008. The 2004 tsunami in Aceh and Southern
Thailand: a review on coastal ecosystems, wave hazards and vulnerability. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics, 10(1), pp.3-40.
Cohen, S., 2011. Haiti earthquake January 2010: What actions and policies can the Government of Haiti implement to improve emergency management
response.
Corbett, B., 1986. Why is Haiti so poor? People to People.
Dahuri, R, 2006. Pre-and post-tsunami coastal planning and land-use policies and issues in Indonesia. In Workshop on coastal area planning and
management in Asian tsunami-affected countries, Bangkok, Thailand, Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations Regional Office for
Asia and the Pacific.
Échevin, D. (2011). Vulnerability and Livelihoods before and after the Haiti Earthquake.
ECHO, 2017. Retrieved from http://ec.europa.eu/echo/
Fierro, E. and Perry, C., 2010. Preliminary Reconnaissance Report—12 January 2010 Haiti Earthquake (The Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research
Center, 2010). Haiti_Reconnaissance. pdf.
Fitzpatrick, D., 2008. Managing conflict and sustaining recovery: land administration reform in Tsunami-affected Aceh. National University of Singapore
(NUS). Asia research institute (ARI).
Gaillard, J.C., Clavé, E., Vibert, O., Denain, J.C., Efendi, Y., Grancher, D., Liamzon, C.C., Sari, D.R. and Setiawan, R., 2008. Ethnic groups’ response to
the 26 December 2004 earthquake and tsunami in Aceh, Indonesia. Natural Hazards, 47(1), pp.17-38.
Ghachem, M.W., 2012. The Old Regime and the Haitian Revolution. Cambridge University Press.
Haiti Red Cross, I.F.R.C., 2015. How law and regulation supports disaster risk reduction Haiti case-study report.
Hayes, G.P., Briggs, R.W., Sladen, A., Fielding, E.J., Prentice, C., Hudnut, K., Mann, P., Taylor, F.W., Crone, A.J., Gold, R. and Ito, T., 2010. Complex
rupture during the 12 January 2010 Haiti earthquake. Nature Geoscience, 3(11), p.800.
Herard, D., 2012. Disaster risk reduction and the action plan for national recovery and the development of Haiti.
Hou, L. and Shi, P., 2011. Haiti 2010 earthquake—How to explain such huge losses? International journal of disaster risk science, 2(1), pp.25-33.
IFRC, 2015. Haiti earthquake 2010 Five-year progress report. Retrieved from http://www.ifrc.org/Global/Documents/Americas/201501/1287600-IFRC-
Haiti%205-year%20progress%20report-EN-LR.pdf
Jones, N, 2010. Haiti to improve quake preparedness, Country's first seismologists training to run a seismic network. Nature International Weekly Journal
of Science.
Laumonier, Y., Uryu, Y., Stüwe, M., Budiman, A., Setiabudi, B. and Hadian, O., 2010. Eco-floristic sectors and deforestation threats in Sumatra:
identifying new conservation area network priorities for ecosystem-based land use planning. Biodiversity and conservation, 19(4), pp.1153-1174.
Martin, H., Lewis, T. M., & Martin, N. M, 2012. A Critical Review of Haiti Earthquake of 2010: Key Development Problems and Focused Solutions.
Masyrafah, H. and McKeon, J.M., 2008. Post-tsunami aid effectiveness in Aceh. USA: Wolfensohn Centre for Development.

icshge.org
Meng, L., Ampuero, J.P., Sladen, A. and Rendon, H., 2012. High‐resolution back projection at regional distance: Application to the Haiti M7. 0 earthquake
and comparisons with finite source studies. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 117(B4).
Paris, R., Wassmer, P., Sartohadi, J., Lavigne, F., Barthomeuf, B., Desgages, E., Grancher, D., Baumert, P., Vautier, F., Brunstein, D. and Gomez, C., 2009.
Tsunamis as geomorphic crises: lessons from the December 26, 2004 tsunami in Lhok Nga, west Banda Aceh (Sumatra,
Indonesia). Geomorphology, 104(1-2), pp.59-72.
Peduzzi, P., Allenbach, K., Chatenoux, B., Giuliani, G., Harayama, A., Kanala, R. & Naville, F, 2005. After the tsunami: Rapid Environmental Assessment.
Risler, E., Kintzle, S. and Nackerud, L., 2015. Haiti and the earthquake: examining the experience of psychological stress and trauma. Research on Social
Work Practice, 25(2), pp.251-256.
Saatcioglu, M., Ghobarah, A. and Nistor, I., 2005. Effects of the December 26, 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami on physical infrastructure. ISET J.
Earthq. Technol, 42, pp.79-94.
Sari, S., 2009. Disaster risk reduction in Banda Aceh. 4th Annual International Workshop & Expo on Sumatera Tsunami Disaster & Recovery 2009, 66-70.
Syam, A., Dirhamsyah, M., Priyono, J, 2010. Institutional and legislative system for disaster management in Aceh: past, present and the future. 5th Annual
International Workshop & Expo on Sumatera Tsunami Disaster & Recovery 2010, 80-83.
United nations Development Programme (UNDP), 2006. Local Governance in Tsunami Recovery: Lessons learned and Emerging Principles. Bangkok:
United Nations Development programme.
Verner, D. and Egset, W. eds., 2007. Social resilience and state fragility in Haiti. The World Bank.
Wang, F., Miyajima, M., Li, T., Wei, S.H.A.N. and Fathani, T.F. eds., 2012. Progress of geo-disaster mitigation technology in Asia. Springer Science &
Business Media.

icshge.org
Designing a model to display the relation between social vulnerability

and anthropogenic risk of wildfires in Galicia, Spain
Diego, J. de,1 Rúa, A.,2 and Fernández, M.3
1
University Institute of Studies on Migration, Universidad Pontificia Comillas, Madrid, Spain
2
Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pontificia Comillas, Madrid, Spain
3
University Institute of Studies on Migration, ICAI School of Engineering, Universidad Pontificia Comillas, Madrid, Spain
Abstract—Since the beginning of the 21st century, most of the forest fires that occur in Spain have taken place in the northern
region of Galicia. This area represents 5.8% of the Spanish territory, but compromises, in certain years, up to 50% of the total
number of wildfires. Current research on forest fires is focuses mostly on physical or meteorological characteristics, post-fire
situations and their potential destructive capacities (main areas burned, type of vegetation, economic loses, etc). However,
academic research does not delve into other socio-economic factors (population structure, density, livestock farms, education,
among others), which compromise the existing pre-fire situation in the affected territories, and subsequently reflect a prevailing
vulnerability of the population. Indeed, these socioeconomic variables can influence fire occurrence, whether positively or
negatively. To fill in this knowledge gap, this article analyzes the relationship between wildfire events and the socio-economic
variables that characterize the Galician municipalities affected. To that effect, first, a thorough examination and selection of
the most relevant socioeconomic variables, and the subsequent justification will be carried out. Then, using IBM SPSS statistics
24, a linear regression is executed using the data of wildfires that occurred in Galicia between 2001 and 2015. The resulting
model allows better knowledge of the importance of the socioeconomic situation in Galician municipalities when wildfires
occur. Therefore, this result identifies the existing relationship between the socioeconomic variables and wildfire events and,
consequently, will help to optimize the interventions that must be done. This may be the best way to carry out prevention
actions in order to reduce vulnerability to forest fires.
Keywords—socioeconomic variables, Spain, Galicia, wildfires, multiple linear regression
I. INTRODUCTION
F OREST fires are natural disasters that are mostly associated with countries that have specific climatic characteristics and
fire-prone vegetation. Spain is on the list of countries annually affected by these events, including the USA and Australia.
Although it is true that forest fires have a natural component that makes them necessary within the ecological cycle of certain
ecosystems, on many occasions, anthropogenic factors affecting terrain, climatology or existing populations, alter the natural
patterns of fires. In fact, variables such as unequal social and economic structure, where class, ethnicity, sex and poverty factor
in, are very relevant for determining and predicting the wildfires occurrence.
In Spain, the Autonomous Community of Galicia has been the Spanish region with the highest number of forest fires so
far in the 21st century. According to specialized studies, forest fires in Galicia relate directly to a mixture of socioeconomic
factors (such as population ageing or low population density among with low economic development) and natural or
environmental factors (such as extensive livestock farming, abandoned areas or urban-forest interface areas).
The aim of this article is to establish the relationship between the socioeconomic aspects that reflect the reality of Galician
municipalities and the number of forest fires that have occurred between 2001 and 2015, and to know which variables carry
the greatest weight. A multiple linear regression model, estimated by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method, was used to
perform this analysis. The observational unit was the municipalities, since it was the smallest unit of information related to
wildfires; in addition, it is the minimum territorial unit for which precise and uniform socioeconomic information exists. With
the obtained data, a clear difference can be observed between the North and the South of the region. While in the North aspects
of economic nature can be weighed more heavily, in the South the social and population aspects stand out. This analysis offers
action guidelines for the authorities in matters of prevention and awareness.
Within the population and social variables, the population ageing is a cause of a greater number of fires. Also noteworthy
is the density: where this is lower, there are more wildfires, due to an abandonment of the territory. The two variables as a
whole, reflect that depressed areas present a greater number of wildfires. In these areas there is also a greater number of
foreigners with less resources and lower incomes. In addition, there is a reduction in the cadastral value that leads to the
abandonment of the land, which again favors the number of wildfires.
All these factors mean that forest fires, year after year, continue occurring in Galicia and the measures taken do not seem
to be enough for a problem of this magnitude. The situation described in Galicia reinforces the objective of investigating the
connection between socioeconomic variables and forest fires in Galicia and, specifically, to find out which variables have the
greatest weight.
II. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

Forest fires are natural disasters that are mostly associated with countries that have specific climatic characteristics and
fire-prone vegetation. Spain is situated within the list of countries annually affected by these events, which includes the US
and Australia. Thus, in the United States forest fires have increased their size and destructive potential (Ager et al, 2017).
Meanwhile, in Australia, in the last century, grassland fires have been the fourth risk associated with catastrophes, after
heatwaves (Haynes et al, 2010). Even though it is considered as a natural disaster, the origin of forest fires is usually human

icshge.org
cause, around 96% in the case of Spain (Hernandez, 2016).

While it is true that forest fires are a natural component and necessary within the ecological cycle of certain ecosystems,
often, anthropogenic causes affecting the land, the weather or existing populations alter natural fire patterns. This may modify
the negative effects of a fire so much that the positive consequences that could contribute to the ecosystem are bypassed
(Bentley and Penman, 2017).
Current research on forest fires mostly focus on physical or meteorological characteristics, post-fire situations and their
potential destructive capacities (main areas burned, type of vegetation, economic losses, etc.). However, academic research do
not delve into other socioeconomic factors (population structure, density, livestock farms, education, among others), that
configure the existing pre-fire situation in the affected territories, and subsequently reflect a prevailing population
vulnerability. Taking into account the characteristics of the existing population, therefore, is crucial within the research on
forest fires (Padilla y Vega-García, 2011).
This perspective is taken from firefighting, which has emphasized post-fire actions, without giving priority to prevention
efforts and action before a wildfire (Kocher and Butsic, 2017). Therefore, as a fundamental aspect in prevention, it is necessary
to know the aspects that influence the characteristics of social groups in environments where fires occur, to reduce impacts
and occurrence of forest fires (Murphy, 2005). Take into account the characteristics of the existing population, therefore, it is
crucial in research on forest fires (Padilla, 2011).
The socioeconomic characteristics of a person or a group of people influence their ability to anticipate, cope with, resist
and recover from the impact of a natural disaster (Wisner et al, 2004). Within these traits issues, unequal social and economic
structure is incorporated, where class, ethnicity, gender and poverty are related (Morrow, 1999). These are very important
socioeconomic variables to determine and predict the occurrence of forest fires, considering that the recovery will be very
different depending on the vulnerable group affected by a disaster (Paveglio et al, 2016).
Social groups that have certain characteristics of social vulnerability are those that have a higher risk of suffering the
effects of a disaster (Cirella et al, 2016). If they are in this situation, it is easier to suffer scenarios that increase their negative
characteristics (Fogel, 2017). Within a natural disaster, come into play certain social, economic and political processes, and
therefore, actions should emphasize in people´s characteristics. This reinforces the idea of studying the population’s
peculiarities in the analysis of forest fire risk and not just look at the post disaster effects (Alonso, 2002).
What makes a natural event a disaster is determined by the territory and the population in the exposed areas.
Social characteristics vary among provinces, municipalities, cities, classes, etc. Demarcate risks seems complicated
because of this variability. (Del Moral and Pita, 2002). Socioeconomic dimensions of a disaster are numerous and
can be classified as follows (Birkmann, 2013):
 Social and population dimension: Consisting of aspects of justice, social differences and social organization and individual
strengths. Some studies also take into account issues such as poverty, social marginalization, demographics (age vulnerable
groups), education, health and welfare, migration and risk perception (Donner and Rodriguez, 2008). The factors that
determine this dimension are influenced by specific conditions and very different development processes, depending on
the country or region where we are and the kind of danger we face (Bergstrand et al, 2015).
 Economic dimension: Consisting of aspects of occupation, income, economic effects, consume, property and savings
(Ashe et al, 2009). In this dimension, there is also housing and habitability issues. Also take account of livelihood, which
may be an aspect to consider in cases where it is based on a single sector (agriculture, fisheries, etc.) (Elliott and Pais,
2010).
 Environmental or territorial dimension: Even though the environment is the source of the natural processes that can cause
a disaster, it is at the same time, an important resource for people who have a high hazard exposure (Molina et al, 2017).
This dimension is related environmental destruction effects that cause changes in the natural environment at different scales
(melting, destruction of natural barriers in coasts, emissions, etc.) (Iyalomhe, 2011). Therefore, this dimension examines
both the dependence of populations of certain environmental services such as the susceptibility of these environmental
services to certain hazards (Sharma and Pant 2017).
Vulnerable social groups that exist in the localities are primarily involved in forest fires. Different roles may exist and can be
divided into (Ballart et al, 2016):
 Vulnerable to fire danger: Is considered any individual or element to be affected by a wildfire.
 Generators of fire risk: They are the source of fire hazard by inappropriate use of the forest, traditional practices, negligence,
etc.
 Relievers of fire risk: Individuals who consider the natural environment and specifically the forest environment is
considered vital.
Yet, what role does society play in forest fires? The responsiveness of citizens in an emergency depend largely on the
conception taking risk. This also affects support for forest management policies and actions carried out by the emergency
services. In general, fires are perceived as a catastrophic and random element, and generally speaking, this perception can be
divided into two distinct assessments, but they may occur simultaneously. These two are summarized as (Ballart et al, 2016):
 The fire as a threat to fight: occurs in areas where there is a close relationship between urban and natural environment. In
this case, the perception is negative because there is a sense of danger associated with fire and also adverse effects are
considered as a loss of quality of land, vegetation, forest landscape, etc.
 Fire as a land management tool: This perception is common in mountain areas and rural areas with a presence of an

icshge.org
agricultural and livestock sector. This view can lead to the expansion of small fires and can cause forest fires of greater
intensity and extent.
Human factors as a cause of forest fires are very relevant in Mediterranean Europe and specifically in Spain (Martinez-
Fernandez et al, 2013). One of the most important characteristic is its randomness. Therefore, it seems so difficult to predict
the behavior of a fire, as well as where and when will begin (Paveglio et al, 2018).
Changes in climate that are currently producing, as well as changes in land use, are unfavorable aspects for forest fire risk
reduction in Spain, as they influence the occurrence and intensity. An increase in episodes that exceed the capabilities of
extinguishing devices is expected to become a national emergency. (Moreno, 2014).
Although wildfires, in some cases, may be favorable for biodiversity and ecological characteristics of a given area, this
can have huge economic and social costs (Crompton et al, 2010). In recent years, these costs have increased considerably in
the intermediate zones between urban and forestry (Bouillon et al, 2014). Recent studies show a positive correlation between
fire prevention spending and the presence of private land and buildings (Stein et al, 2013). This type of land is predominant in
northern Spain, where there are large numbers of smallholdings. Specifically the autonomous community of Galicia stands out
as a forest fires benchmark in Europe. However, this is not the only negative socioeconomic characteristic present in this
community. Therefore, is necessary to inquire into the reality that characterizes Galicia.
III. STATE OF THE QUESTION

Recent decades, Data shows that, in Spain, the autonomous community of Galicia (Map 1) has the highest rate of fires
(Balsa and Hermosilla, 2013). The objective of this paper is to establish the relationship between socioeconomic aspects that
reflect the reality of the Galician municipalities and the number of forest fires from 2001 to 2015, which is the most recent fire
data available. The first step is to establish the relevant socioeconomic variables available. In this sense, knowing the status of
the issue and the most important aspects that reflect the social vulnerability of a country is paramount before selecting the
variables.
Map 1. Situation of Galicia (Red)
Galicia has been the Spanish autonomous community most affected by forest fires (Loureiro and Barreal, 2015). This
region has taken, since the beginning of the century, most of the events with these characteristics produced in Spain. Has been
one of the regions with most affected hectares (ha). This can be seen in the Nature Data Bank statistics (figure 1), where it is
seen a comparison between Galicia and Spain about ha burned and number of wildfires, showing the weight that these disasters
have had on his community. In addition, recent reports show that fire seasons are lengthening and within Europe, Northern
Spain and Portugal, are the most critical areas. (San-Miguel-Ayanz et al, 2018).

icshge.org
250,000 30,000
25,000
200,000
20,000
150,000
15,000
100,000
10,000
50,000
5,000
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Burn ha G Burn ha E Wildfires G Wildfires E
Figure 1. Relation between Galicia (G) and Spain (E). 2001(1)-2015(15). Burn ha and number of wildfires.
Source: Own Elaboration from Nature Data Bank
Fires in Galicia have weighed significantly in Spain´s general statistics. There are certain years when you can note that,
both the number of wildfires occurred and burned ha in Galicia compose more than 50% of Spanish fire disasters (Figure 2).
You can also see that the number of fires has decreased, but burned ha follow a cyclical nature and its mean is constant. Forest
fires are known as one of the most important environmental problems in Galicia (Balsa and Hermosilla 2013). They entail a
far-reaching impact for the economic sector and cause greater risks for people and ecosystems, all linked to public spending
(WWF, 2016).
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Burn ha G % Number of wildfires G
Figure 2. Burn ha and number of wildfires in Galicia in relation to Spain. 2001(1)-2015(15).

Source: Own Elaboration from Nature Data Bank
According specialized studies (Barreal et al, 2011), forest fires in Galicia are directly related to a mixture of
socioeconomic factors and natural or environmental factors, which can be considered well-known and predictable, but typically
exceed the capabilities of extinction means. The most decisive territorial factors are (COSE, 2015):
 Poor land management: Galicia is one of the regions with the highest plant production and growth in Spain. Galician
territories, due to a lack of forest management have been increasing their areas with highly flammable shrubs and trees,
also joined to the agricultural land and livestock abandonment.
 Extended livestock farming: Livestock owners make use of abandoned forest land. To acquire grass, small fires are made
and the danger of causing a huge wildfire is high.
 Wastelands: They are characterized as industrial parks, residential and suburban areas of cities and towns, where shrub
land and waste are mixed. They are not considered forest areas, but, however, are areas where the work of extinguishing
media is very intense.
 Wildland-urban interface areas: Considered spaces where the surroundings of homes, neighborhoods and urbanizations,

icshge.org
are embedded in adjacent forest areas with green spaces. These are considered high risk areas because here the occurrence
and negligence in fire management multiplies. There are large numbers of population centers with these characteristics and
higher risk of fires (Galiana, 2012)
 Fire as a tool: Although there are permits for controlled burns, this practice is widespread in Galicia, both residues and
forest scrub. This practice is very common in depressed and aged areas.
The above territorial factors bound to the predominant types of land in Galicia, influence in fire data. These lands are
mostly private ownership (97.26%). Within these private lands the 32.77% is shared management and the rest is other
undetermined private ownership, where many are abandoned or neglected (Sineiro, 2006). The number of forest owners,
according to the Galicia Forest Plan is above 650,000 and the average plot size is 2-3 ha, demonstrating the important forest
properties division in Galicia (PLADIGA, 2018).
Moreover, the large agriculture abandoned areas and the lack of land management in forest production have an important
market niche, while combating desertification and rural mountain management is favored. Ignorance of the most elementary
rules of forest logic and lack of adequate environmental education, produce a strong mismatch between demands and social
behavior. The cause of forest fires in Galicia relates directly to archaic habits in depressed areas and negligent use of fire as a
management tool (Balsa and Hermosilla, 2013). There is a lack of knowledge about such disasters, a lack of awareness and
forest culture and, obviously, economic interests associated with livestock and agricultural uses, which are at odds with land
and forest management (COSE, 2015). In the long term, these imbalances cause an increase in forest fires further degradation
of natural areas (Vilariño, 1998).
Galicia is one of the rural communities that have lost more population, with -9.2 % decrease compared to 2008. The rural
depopulation is one of the major problems in Spain and in particular Galicia, where is considered a demographic and territorial
phenomenon. The fall in absolute terms of the number of habitants results from a negative vegetative growth. (CES, 2018)
But there are other critical points that are related to the population desertification of rural areas, such as an aging
population or so low population density that doesn’t permit economic development. However, imbalances in age and gender
structures may be to blame (Balsa and Hermosilla 2013).
Rural masculinization occurs at young ages, due to a predominantly female migration, also due to lack of equal productive
work and reproductive work, which results in a search of a higher educational level and job opportunities associated with
urban areas (Ballart et al, 2016).
The low density presents common problems associated, such as aging, geographical isolation, lack of spatial integration
with other adjacent areas, bad connection and difficulty in transport, lack of adequate social services, lower levels of human
capital and employment opportunities. All this inevitably leads to economic decline (Bergstrand et al, 2015).
The impact of human resource losses, lack of territory development and the inability to maintain economic activities, is
not only economic, there are also patrimonial and environmental impacts (Balsa and Hermosilla, 2013). With regard to
environmental effects, abandonment of livestock and traditional agricultural uses, represents a risk factor for natural
environment conservation. This is because landscape transformations occur without control and forest land management
associated with rural areas are located mostly within individual plots (Wigtil et al, 2016).
The decline in extensive livestock farming has suffered in Spain (around 30% between 2004 and 2015), it is considered
an aggravating factor of forest fires (CES, 2018). This had an impact on the forest landscape, favoring the mosaics and reducing
fuel in the mountains of Galicia (Rigueiro et al, 2002).
The progressive abandonment of rural areas can be considered negative in the medium term, as the environmental effects,
such as soil loss and exposure to erosive phenomena in large areas is extensive (Loureiro and Barreal 2015). In addition, a lack
of forest land management occurs, increasing the risk of fire. In Galicia there are traditional burning activities and traditional
use of fire in mountain management, which can lead to an increased fire occurrence (CES, 2018).
All these factors ensure that forest fires continue to occur year after year in Galicia and the measures taken seem to be not
enough for a problem of this magnitude. The situation described in Galicia, reinforces the aim of investigating the relationship
between socioeconomic variables and forest fires in Galicia and specifically know which variables are those that have greater
weight.
IV. METHODOLOGY
As explained above, the main objective of this work is to establish the relationship between socioeconomic aspects that
reflect the reality of the Galician municipalities and the number of forest fires during 2001 and 2015.
To analyze this relationship is needed, first, a quality data set corresponding to Galician wildfires. Previous studies have
established various time horizons: 2001-2006 (Barreal et al, 2011), 2001-2009 (Barreal et al, 2012), 2006 (Balsa and
Hermosilla, 2013) and 2001-2010 (Loureiro and Barreal, 2015). In this sense, as information was available, it was decided to
extend the time horizon of research, selecting the updated data spanning from 2001 to 2015. It has been established the
observational unit at the municipal level to have as accurately as possible, allowing display territory differences (Barreal et al,
2011) and is also the minimum territorial unit which exists accurate and consistent socioeconomic information.
Fire data used were obtained from the Nature Data Bank, which has extensive information on fires in Spain. The data
were separate into municipalities, and we had to choose which variables were more suitable for research, as burned Has, type
of terrain, etc. Afterwards Galician municipalities socioeconomics data were joined, obtained from the IGE (Galician Statistics
Institute).
To establish the relationship between the occurrence of wildfires and the socioeconomic variables, the variables above

icshge.org
described were considered (density, aging population, type of terrain, etc.), and may observe the actual effect of these data
over wildfires, neglecting environmental issues. This was like this because in the case of number of wildfires, the
environmental impact, like temperature, wind and humidity is not as critical as in the case of burned ha (Barreal et al, 2011).
Socioeconomic data were related to the Galician municipalities, so the number of fires and burned ha, were pooled along
with Galicia socioeconomic data from each municipality. These data were adjusted to fifteen years by the mean and median
of every year for selected variables. Subsequently, they were adapted to avoid very large paths, positive asymmetries or not
constant marginal variations, and so they were more representative and comparable, making different transformations or ratios
with variables such as municipal ha or population size. How has it mentioned above (Birkmann, 2013), the variables can be
grouped into dimensions: social and population, economic and environmental or territorial. The following socioeconomic
variables (Table 1) were obtained:
TABLE I
VARIABLES: DESCRIPTION AND DEFINITION
Dimension Variables Min. Max. Average Deviation Description
Population>64 76,91 51034,37 1932,85 4554,10 Population over 64 years

Density ,03 64,61 1,44 4,26145 Number of people per Has
I.replacement 72,34 585,26 179,83 68,03 Relation among the population between 60 and 64 years old and
the population between 15 and 19 years old. Measures the
Population
capacity of a population to replace the individuals who are

retiring.
I.Masculinity 83,09 129,83 96,78 5,89 Relation between the number of men and women in a given
population.
I.active 72,40 177,34 118,78 19,43 Relation among the population between 40 and 64 years old and
the population between 15 and 39 years old
P.Foreign ,00 2,22 ,03 ,15 Proportion between foreign population and total population
ParcelVal ,08 9,23 1,03 ,87 value of the plots in thousands of euros divided by the number
of people registered in the Real Estate Cadastre
DisCenter ,00 116,00 4,81 11,17 Buildings and dwellings of a singular entity that cannot be
Territory
included in the concept of nucleus divided between the set of

towns with less ten buildings, which are forming streets, squares
or other urban roads.
RusticHa ,47 1,00 ,95 ,07 Rustic Has by municipality
Ranch ,00 ,05 ,01 ,01 Number of livestock farms per municipality
Livestock 4,853 25032,06 3050,26 4501,22 Number of cattle heads per municipality
IncCap 5915,88 18777,41 10368,81 1722,46 Gross Income per habitant
Debthab ,00 ,81 ,19 ,17 Balance of the debt that the town councils have contracted with
Economy
the bank, at a certain date. The debt of the town councils was
introduced dividing it among the inhabitants of each
municipality, so that it would be more representative of the
weight of each territory.
GDP 2680,62 7168155,94 176090,10 616411,74 Gross Domestic Product
Source: Own elaboration from IGE
To analyze the socioeconomic variables influence in the number of wildfires in Galicia between 2001 and 2015, a model
of multiple linear regression estimated by ordinary least squares (OLS) method was used. The observational unit was
municipalities since it was the smallest unit of information on forest fires; also is the minimum territorial unit where there is
accurate and consistent socioeconomic information.
The model was carried out for all municipalities of Galicia and later in the municipalities of each province separately, in
order to analyze the structural stability of the model. To determine if there were differences between provinces chow test was
executed (Fisher, 1970) for the Northern region (A Coruña and Lugo) and Southern Region (Ourense and Pontevedra) and the
same test within each region to compare each pair of provinces. The results are the following:
General Model:
The null hypotheses is that there is structural stability between North and South Galicia, the Chow contrast of a structural
difference from North and South yielded a value of the statistic test. F (15, 284) = 7.20223 p value 0.0000, so null hypothesis
is REJECTED and therefore exists structural difference between the North and South. We proceed to see if there are structural
differences within the North provinces (A Coruña and Lugo) and South provinces (Ourense and Pontevedra):
1. North Model:
Chow contrast for structural difference in North Model
F (15, 130) = 1.32671 p 0.1952 value
Not reject the null hypothesis therefore no structural difference between the two northern provinces
2. South Model:
Chow contrast for structural difference in South Model
F (15, 124) = 0.948374 p value 0.5135
Not reject the null hypothesis therefore no structural difference between the two southern provinces

icshge.org
Moreover, to solve heteroscedasticity problems presented in the model, robust standard deviations were used. To avoid other
problems (variables with large range of variation and / or skewness to the right, or not constant marginal effects) logarithms
were taken when it was necessary.
V. RESULT AND DISCUSSION

Model specification to explain the impact of the selected variables in the number of wildfires occurred in Galician
municipalities, between 2001 and 2015 is:
Number of Wildfires = β0+ β1LnPopulation>64 + β2LnDensity + β3 IncCap + β4I.Masculinity
+β5I.active + β6LnP.Foreign + β7LnParcelVal + β8LnDisCenter
+β9LnRanch + β10LnRusticHa + β11LnGDP + β12LnLivestock
+β13I.replacement +β14LnDebtHab + ɛ
The obtained results for each model are shown in Table 2:
TABLE II
EMPIRICAL RESULTS OF THE MODEL
Dependent Variable: Number of Wildfires
Independent Variables General Model North Model South Model
Coefficients p value Coefficients p value Coefficients p value

(β) (β) (β)
Constant −931. 816 0.002 −1207.57 0.000 −1750.38 0.000
LnPopulation>64 189.671*** 0.000 132.692*** 0.000 273.830*** 0.000
LnDensity −212.140*** 0.000 −19.9101 0.573 −273.462*** 0.000
IncCap −0.0584683*** 0.000 −0.0394832*** 0.000 −0.0223893 0.264
I.Masculinity 5.68822** 0.010 1.71407 0.369 13.1212*** 0.000

I.active −3.11713* 0.051 −1.26194 0.384 −3.55956* 0.079
LnP.Foreign 53.7118*** 0.002 −12.8223 0.291 50.9607 0.121
LnParcelVal −60.4937*** 0.001 4.24432 0.850 −36.5176 0.194

LnDisCenter −30.7492*** 0.001 −14.9480* 0.063 15.6403 0.379
LnRanch 35.4466 0.138 −21.3153 0.527 33.6097 0.158
LnRusticHa −275.325 0.119 95.0943 0.659 −223.834 0.114

LnGDP 52.6489 0.119 46.6009** 0.011 −17.6842 0.766
LnLivestock −2.94676 0.846 27.7159 0.194 10.2266 0.546
I.replacement 0.108139 0.714 −0.0719371 0.863 −0.207825 0.523

LnDebtHab 27.3305 0.676 47.9772 0.549 −2.70796 0.972
R2 0,421 ,547 0,501

Sample size 314 160 154
Table 2 shows the three models, one for all Galicia and the other where models of the North of Galicia and the South of
Galicia are represented. Thus, you can see the differences in significance for each different model.
R2 of the models can be considered representative because a high predictive ability of the dependent variable in the
General, North and South models is achieved (42.1%, 54.7% and 50.1% respectively). Therefore, the number of forest wildfires
in Galicia has high relationship with the socioeconomic variables that characterize the municipalities of this community, as
estimated models together are significant.
The only one variable that keeps the significance at 1% in the three models is the "population over 64 year age, ", so it is
one of the most explanatory variables of forest fires in Galicia.
The variables "population density" and "gross income per capita", are also significant at 1% for two of the models posed
(South and General model in the case of the "population density" and North and General model in the case of “gross income
per capita ").
The "index of masculinity", meanwhile, it is significant at 1% in southern model, and 5% for the model of all Galicia.
The "proportion of the assessed value by cadastral holder", the "proportion of scattered / core" and the "proportion of
foreign" are only significant at 1% in the case of all Galicia, the "proportion of scattered / core" is 10%, in North model.
If you look at the coefficients (β) sign, the relations, direct or inverse, with the dependent variable, "number of wildfires",
is the same for all three models and are explained as follows:
 Is an inverse relationship in "Density", "gross income per capita," the "rate structure active population", the "rate able
value per holder" and "proportion of scattered / cores", indicating that a lower value of these variables, the greater number
of wildfires occur. In the case of "index structure of the workforce", if the value decreases, it means more aged population.

icshge.org
In the case of property value, if decreases, demonstrate that the plots are less valuable. In the case of the ratio of scattered
/cores, if the value decreases are fewer scattered and means more wildfires, which is related to the fields of forestry urban
interface associated with population centers.
 The relationship is direct to "population over 64 years," which clearly shows that there are more wildfires in aged
populations that are associated with traditions and cultural burning elements, lower level of education and in particular,
the highest vulnerability. These areas also have a higher "masculinity index" since there been an historical female
abandonment of rural areas, and this results in lower population density. Note the relation with the foreign population that
could be explained by regarding their more interaction with highly vulnerable areas with lower incomes, precarious
services, exclusion areas, etc. Positive GDP ratio (higher GDP, means more wildfires) can be explained by the existence
of a larger number of urban cores. This means higher municipality richness so, therefore, the existence of more forestry-
urban interface, more likely to wildfires.
With the obtained data can first observe a clear difference between North and South. This shows that the actions carried
out must be different depending on the municipality where we want to influence. While in the north can be considered more
economic aspects, in the south it is necessary to incur on the social and demographic aspects. This does not mean that the
whole present community problems cannot be solved with community activities.
Within the population and social variables, highlights the aging population as a cause of more fires. It also highlights the
density: where this is lower, more wildfires occur because of an abandonment of the territory. The two variables together
reflect that depressed areas, with higher aging rates have more number of wildfires. In these areas there is also a greater number
of foreigners with fewer resources and lower incomes. In addition, a reduction in the cadastral value involved an abandonment
of land, which favors the number of fires again.
VI. CONCLUSIONS
The object of this paper is to establish the relationship between socioeconomic aspects that reflect the reality of the
Galician municipalities and the number of forest fires between 2001 and 2015. The ultimate goal of our work is to identify
those socioeconomic issues for achieving a greater impact on prevention actions.
At this point, the most explanatory variables in our model are aged population and low density; Community actions of
the competent authorities should take into account the negative connotation of both variables on the intervention action
planning. This is difficult in the short term but, a greater impact on improving rural life quality in this areas, predictably would
alter these variables positively towards their relation to forest fires. By promoting the participation and improvement of the
education, the variables that influence the occurrence of wildfires can be modify, changing beliefs and activities linked to aged
populations with lower levels of education. The need to establish models of sustainable development is detected, taking into
account the social aspects that stand out as a cause of forest wildfires.
Due to the dimensions related to the territory, the use of biomass has been carried out in Galicia, but we must ensure the
criteria that guarantee their sustainability. Avoiding ground affections and competition with other sectors such as livestock and
agriculture is also able to give value to the forest. This increases the cadastral value and, as shown by the results, the influence
over the occurrence of wildfires. We must find synergy with other measures such as agroforestry mosaics systems, together
with holdings investments. All this leads to a quality improvement of life in rural areas, finally influencing in variables such
as population density and income per capita. Giving value to the forest changes the perception people have of forest resources
and therefore can reduce wildfires.
Looking not lose the forest value, a priority is to increase spending on prevention and elaborate strategies for it. You also
need to restore damaged areas to prevent further deterioration subsequent adverse environmental conditions. It is the most
efficient way to maintain economic, social and environmental functions of an area, trying to emphasize before the occurrence
of an event. By including social variables as a cause of the wildfires, you can insist on reducing these. It is important to
emphasize on the variables that are meaningful and carry out actions designed for their reduction, such as managing the
wildland-urban interface areas, which are related to variables such as the ratio scattered / cores and GDP. It is also important
to improve working conditions for women in rural areas, thus reducing the masculinity index and, therefore, increasing
population density.
The works carried out on prevention and extinction are responsibility of public institutions. Policies are focused on the
central government for basic legislation, but there is a transfer to the autonomous communities of these tasks. It is necessary
to involve local bodies for better management of natural hazards and specifically for forest wildfires, taking into account the
socioeconomic variables that affect each. Therefore, it is important to establish the differences between existing social groups
in a given area, and thus know the exposure and risk involved, and make these social groups know, so you are improving
education. As it is seen throughout the study, is important to take into account the differences between northern and southern
Galicia, working on the most important variables in each area. This ensures that the actions are more efficient and a better
result against wildfires.
Changes should be medium-long term, where an exchange between different populations is promoted and simultaneously
can affect certain harmful traditional behaviors associated with aging societies. This would improve turnover rate workforce
and demographic structure. One of the great challenges is to establish unity among all the factors involved in a wildfire, from
prevention to extinction, understanding their behavior and minimizing its effects.
The relevance of the results to establish a relationship between socioeconomic variables and the number of wildfires must
be considered by the technical and policymakers. Is not only necessary to act on climate, environmental and natural issues,

icshge.org
when it comes to reducing the risk of occurrence, actions must affect all aspects that influence. They must develop strategies
that are complementary to prevention efforts where these variables representing social vulnerability (as aspects of exclusion,
low income or aging) are mitigated. Research shows this relationship and therefore present a problem shown in society. Its
severity can be reduced through strategies and policies that will have their effect in the long and medium term.
In short, we demonstrated the influence of social characteristics in the production of wildfire. Therefore, working on these
issues, you can also make a difference in the occurrence of anthropogenic wildfires.
VII. FUTURE RESEARCH LINES AND LIMITATIONS

The main limitation of the research is related to the data. Some very important variables in the socioeconomic sphere have
not been selected because of the difficulty obtaining them at the municipal level. In addition, it is very difficult to obtain
prevention and extinction spending data, even making a request to different Galician agencies. We should also mention that
another limitation comes from the inability of the model to predict indirect relationships between variables, although this leads
us directly into the future course of our investigation.
In order to deepen the relations established between socioeconomic variables and forest fires a structural equation model
(SEM) will be elaborated, which is a multivariate statistical technique for testing and estimating causal relationships from
statistical data and assumptions will be drawn qualitative on causality, developing different constructs by the data. The
behaviors of the variables in the linear regression deserve to be studied more precisely. It is necessary to establish the intensity
of relations, direction and more importantly, establish direct and indirect correlations between variables, in order to create
constructs. These constructs will be composed of interrelated variables, like economical, climatological, environmental or
social. We propose a more precise way to study social vulnerability and its effect on forest fires, and investigate if reducing
vulnerability in all its components can reduce the risk of wildfire more efficiently.
REFERENCES
Ager, A., Evers, C., Day, M., Preisler, H., Barros, A. and Nielsen-Pincus, M. (2017). Network analysis of wildfire transmission and implications for risk
governance. PLoSOne; 12(3):e0172867. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0172867.
Alonso Climent, I. (2002). Tercer mundo, desarrollo, desastres y tecnología. Una mirada desde la geografía. Serie Geográfica 10, 11-26.
Ashe, B., Mcaneney, K.J. and Pitman, A.J. (2009). Total cost of fire in Australia. Journal of Risk Research, 12(2), pp. 121-136.
Ballart, H., Vázquez, I., Chauvin, S., Gladine, J., Plana, E., Font, M. and Serra, M. (2016). La comunicación del riesgo de incendios forestales.
Recomendaciones operativas para mejorar la prevención social. Projecte eFIRECOM (DG ECHO 2014/PREV/13). Ediciones CTFC. 30pp
Balsa Barreiro, J. and Hermosilla, T. (2013). Socio-geographic analysis of the causes of the 2006’s wildfires in Galicia (Spain). Forest Systems, 22(3), pp.
497-509.
Barreal, J., Loureiro, M. and Picos, J., (2012). Estudio de la causalidad de los incendios forestales en Galicia. Economia agraria y recursos naturales, pp.
101-116.
Barreal,J., Loureiro, M. and Picos, J. (2011). Estudio de la incidencia de los incendios en galicia: una perspectiva socioeconómica. Revista Galega de
Economía, 20.
Bentley, PD. and Penman, TD. (2017). Is there an inherent conflict in managing fire for people and conservation? International Journal of Wildland Fire.
26(6):455. doi: 10.1071/WF16150.
Bergstrand, K., Mayer, B., Brumback, B. and Zhang, Y. (2015). Assessing the Relationship between Social Vulnerability and Community Resilience to
Hazards. Social Indicators Research, 122(2), pp. 391-409.
Birkmann, J. (2013). Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: Towards disaster resilient societies (second edition). United Nation University Press. Tokio
& New York.
Bouillon, C., Fernandez Ramiro, M.M., Sirca, c., Fierro Garcia, B., Casula, F., Vila, B., Long Fournel, M., Pellizzaro, G., Arca, B., Tedim, F., Trebini, F.,
Derudas, A. and Cane, S. (2014). A tool for mapping rural-urban interfaces on different scales, in Advances in Forest Fire Research.
Cirella, G. T., Iyalomhe, F. O., and Russo, A. (2016). Vulnerability and risks related to climatic events in urban coastal environments: Overview of actuality
and challenges of methodologies and approaches. UPLanD-Journal of Urban Planning, Landscape & environmental Design, 1(1), 67.
Consejo Económico y Social (CES). (2018). Informe 01/2018, El medio rural y su vertebración social y territorial. ISBN 978-84-8188-374-9. Consejo
Económico y Social. Número 01.
COSE Selvicultores. (2015). Informe: El problema actual de los incendios forestales en Galicia. Informe de la Confederación de Organizaciones de
Selvicultores de España.
Crompton, R., Mcaneney, J., Chen, K., Pielke, R. and Haynes, K. (2010). Influence of Location, Population, and Climate on Building Damage and Fatalities
due to Australian Bushfire. Weather, Climate, and Society, 2(4), pp. 300-310.
Del Moral Ituarte L. and Pita López M.F. (2002) El papel de los riesgos en las sociedades contemporáneas. Riesgos Naturales (ed. Ayala-Carcedo F.J. and
Olcina Cantos J.), pp. 75-86. ARIEL, Barcelona.
Donner, W. and Rodríguez, H. (2008). Population Composition, Migration and Inequality: The Influence of Demographic Changes on Disaster Risk and
Vulnerability. Social Forces, 87(2), pp. 1089-1114.
Elliott, J.R. and Pais, J. (2010). When Nature Pushes Back: Environmental Impact and the Spatial Redistribution of Socially Vulnerable Populations. Social
Science Quarterly, 91(5), pp. 1187-1202.
Fisher FM. (1970) Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions. Econometrica. 38(2):361-6.
Fogel, S.J. (2017). Reducing Vulnerability for Those Who Are Homeless During Natural Disasters. Journal of Poverty, 21(3), pp. 208.
Galiana Martín, L. (2012). Las interfaces urbano-forestales: un nuevo territorio de riesgo en España. Boletín de la Asociación de Geógrafos Españoles.
(58):205-26.
Haynes K., Handmer J., Mcaneney J., Tibbits A. and Coates L. (2010). Australian bushfire fatalities 1900–2008: Exploring trends in relation to the ‘Prepare,
stay and defend or leave early’ policy. Environmental Science and Policy.13 (3):185-194. doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2010.03.002
Hernández, L. (2016). Dónde arden nuestros bosques. Análisis y soluciones de WWF.
Iyalomhe, F. (2011). Understanding developing countries vulnerability and adaptation to climate change using theoretical change vulnerability framework.
African Journal of Computing and ICT, 4(3), 33-40.
Kocher, S. and Butsic, V. (2017). Governance of Land Use Planning to Reduce Fire Risk to Homes Mediterranean France and California. Land, 6(2), pp.
24.
Loureiro, M. and Barreal, J. (2015). Modelling spatial patterns and temporal trends of wildfires in Galicia (NW Spain). Forest Systems, 24(2), pp. e022.
Molina, J., Rodríguez Y., Silva, F. and Herrera, M. (2017). Economic vulnerability of fire-prone landscapes in protected natural areas: application in a
Mediterranean Natural Park. European Journal of Forest Research, 136(4), pp. 609-624.
Moreno, J.M. (2014). Evaluación preliminar de los impactos en España por efecto del cambio climático. Boletín CF+S.

icshge.org
Morgan P., Keane, RE. And Dillon, GK. (2014). Challenges of assessing fire and burn severity using field measures, remote sensing and
modelling. International Journal of Wildland Fire.23 (8):1045. doi: 10.1071/WF13058.
Morrow, B.H. (1999). Identifying and Mapping Community Vulnerability. Disasters, 23(1), pp. 1-18.
Murphy, B. (2005) Enhacing Local Level Emergency Management: The Influence of Disaster Experience and the Role of Households and Neighbourhoods.
ICLR Research, Toronto.
Padilla M. and Vega-García C. (2011). On the comparative importance of fire danger rating indices and their integration with spatial and temporal variables
for predicting daily human-caused fire occurrences in Spain. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 20, 46-58.
Paveglio, T., Prato, T., Edgeley, C., Nalle, D. (2016). Evaluating the Characteristics of Social Vulnerability to Wildfire: Demographics, Perceptions, and
Parcel Characteristics. Environmental Management, 58(3), pp. 534-548.
PLADIGA 2018. Memoria. (2018). Plan de Prevención e Defensa Contra os Incendios Forestais de Galicia. Xunta de Galicia, Consellería do medio rural.
Rigueiro, A., Mosquera, M.R., López, L., Pastor, J.C., González, M.P., Romero, R. and Villarino, J.J. (2002). Reducción del riesgo de incendios forestales
mediante el pastoreo del caballo gallego de monte. Cuadernos de la Sociedad Española de Ciencia Forestal, 14, pp. 115-118.
San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Durrant, T., Boca, R., Libertà G., Branco, A., de Rigo, D., Ferrari, D., Maianti, P., Artés, T., Costa, H., Lana, F., Löffler, P., Nuijten,
D., Christofer, A. and Leray, T. (2018). Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2017. EUR 29318 EN, ISBN 978-92-79-92831-4, doi:
10.2760/663443.
Sharma, S. and Pant, H. (2017). Vulnerability of Indian Central Himalayan Forests to Fire in a Warming Climate and a Participatory Preparedness
Approach Based on Modern Tools. Current Science, 112(10), pp. 2100.
Stein, S.M., Menakis, J., Carr, M.A., Comas, S.J.; Stewart, S.I., Cleveland, H., Bramwell, L. and Radeloff, V.C. (2013). Wildfire, wildlands, and people:
understanding and preparing for wildfire in the wildland-urban interface- a Forests on the Edge report. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-299. Fort
Collins, CO. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 36 p.
Vilariño, J. P. (1998). Desarrollo corporativo del sector forestal. Agricultura y sociedad, (85), 15-42.
Wigtil, G., Hammer, R.B., Kline, J.D., Mockrin, M.H., Stewart, S.I., Roper, D. and Radeloff, V.C. (2016). Places where wildfire potential and social
vulnerability coincide in the coterminous United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 25(8), pp. 896.
Wisner, B., Blaikie, P., Cannon, T. and Davis, I. (2004). At Risk: Natural Hazards, people’s vulnerability and disasters. 2nd edition. 471p, Routledge, New
York. ISBN: 0415-252164.

icshge.org
Internet based survey on energy use and evaluation, including

household machinery and climate impacts
Farkas, A.,1 and Mika, J.2
1
National University of Public Service, Budapest, Hungary
2
Eszterhazy Karoly University, Eger, Hungary
Abstract—Three sets of questions selected from an internet-based survey are presented, related to energy utilisation. The 831
responses, obtained in May-September 2016, answered to over one hundred questions. Altogether 34 questions are analysed.
Representativity of the survey is enhanced by stratified sampling, considering the number of inhabitants in the settlement. Four
strata are established: small settlements (below 5,000 inhabitants), medium settlements (5,000 – 50,000), cities in Hungary
(50,000 – 1 million) and Budapest (over 1 million inhabitants). The stratified sampling means that the averages of the given
strata are multiplied by the frequency of the same strata over the country as established by the Central Statistical Office of the
country. As concerns the household equipment, number of cellular phones television, other kitchen equipment, lap-top PC-s
and vacuum-cleaners are over 1 piece / family. Number of gas-cookers is by 50% more than that of electric cookers. From
among the energy sources, the renewable ones are assessed the highest, with 4.77 from the maximum possible 5.00. Energy
use and CO2 emission by the living houses are also assessed over 4.0. Nuclear and fossil energy sources are negatively assessed
(3.05 and 2.82. in average). The most feared consequences of climate change in Hungary are connected with water
management. E.g. the nation-wide water management strategy should be re-considered (4.22), or many plants can be produced
with irrigation, only (4.17). Direct impact on more energy for cooling (4.07) and less energy for heating (3.11) appear rather
asymmetrically. In addition to the above results, energy related aspects of the UN SDG are considered in the first part of the
paper.
Keywords—renewable energy, climate change, public survey, stratified sampling, SDG (2016-2030)
I. INTRODUCTION
E NVIRONMENTAL safety is one of our basic rights which can be achieved by protecting the environment and smart utilisation
of our resources. The changing climate and extremes of weather often warn us on timeliness and hardness of the problem.
The recent UN Sustainable Development Goals (2016-2030) collected 17 Goals and 169 targets serving materials for wide
considerations. In the present paper we provide some thoughts on energy consumption and renewable energy in Section 2.
The key elements of the paper are, however, the questions and answers which were obtained based on 831 responses for
an Internet-based questionnaire containing 107 questions. This methodology and the results are presented in Section 3. Possible
utilisation of these results are briefly outlined by Section 4.
II. THE SDG (2016-2030) ON ENERGY

A. The UN document
The United Nations accepted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development including 17 Sustainable Development Goals
(SDG, 2015) including 169 more detailed targets. These goals spread over all environmental, social and economic aspects of
sustainability, all over the world. In September 2015 the United Nations (UN) accepted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable
Development (SDG) for 2016-2030, including 17 Goals including 169 detailed Targets. This latter document is in the focus of
the present Section.
The aim of the paper is to provide information on the targets related to renewable energy sources, chosen as a possible
example to serve as a field where the related targets can be exposed. Many other foci could have been selected, but this topic,
the renewable energy sources are characterised by three features that make this aspect appealing: renewable energies are (i)
fast developing, (ii) future oriented by saving the environment and (iii) they represent relatively new pieces of knowledge, so
contemporary information should not fight with older learning.
The 17 established Goals are not ordered into any logical structure. Even the colouring of the logo-s does not help in
establishing any intention to classify the Goals, though it would be rather useful in memorizing and understanding the goals.
Hence, a trial is made to classify the goals keeping their original numbering in Table 1.
TABLE I
GROUPING OF THE 17 GOALS (2016-2030). ALL ORIGINAL TEXTS ARE DENOTED BY (“.”)
Group of Goals Numbered Goals

“2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture.”
Basic human “3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages.”
needs “6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all.”
“7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all.”
“1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere. “
Equality and “4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all.”
justice “5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls in their social role.”
“10. Reduce inequality within and among countries.”

icshge.org
“8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all.”
Efficient, sustainable “9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation.”
economy “12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns.”
“13.* Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.*”
„11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable.
Protecting vulnerable “14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development.
environments “15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification,
and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss.”
Cooperation towards “16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective,
common goals accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels.”
“17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development.”
Acknowledging that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is the primary international, intergovernmental forum for negotiating the
global response to climate change.
The SDG were recommended as a document reflecting the important 5P for mankind: people, planet, prosperity, peace,
partnership (SDG, 2015: p. 2). These concepts, however, do not really accompany the document. The first two groups of our
classification, the basic needs (No. 2, 3, 6 and 7) and the equity group (No. 1, 4, 5 and 10) deal really with people. The next
two groups, the production (No. 8, 9, 12 and 13) and the zones in danger (No. 11, 14 and 15) fit to prosperity and planet, but
peace and partnership are related to the smallest group, cooperation (No. 16-17).
The majority of the Targets contain quantitative objectives, mostly related to 2030. Their number is 126. A minority of
the Targets points at organisation needs as preconditions of the objective targets, encountering 43 such Targets. As a rule, the
quantitative targets are marked by numbers, and the latter ones by letters.
Let us remark, that there is one Goal which is problematic to select into any of the groups. This is Goal 13. Climate action,
since climate change is the only environmental problem which is tackled as a separate Goal in the SDG (2016-2030). All other
problems, like reduction of biodiversity, ozone depletion, etc. are considered in other goals as their effects on the vulnerable
spheres or on the human health. It could also be kept as an individual group with one single Goal. Another remark is that this
Goal refers to the Paris Agreement (2015) which deals with several aspects of climate change, not mentioned by this Goal.
B. Synergy and conflicts of renewable energy with other targets

This sub-section describes which goals and targets are related to renewable energy sources. The first sub-section includes
the two goals that support the use of renewable energy sources. In contrast, there are two goals which can conflict with this
objective. Finally, the third sub-section will contain the targets indirectly related to renewable energy sources. The three
subsections will only include quantitatively measurable targets.
a) Synergistic targets
Table 2 lists the two goals demonstrating obvious synergy with renewable energy sources, as well as their specific targets.
With respect to renewable energy, the three most important goals are universal access, increasing the share of renewable
energy, and doubling the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency (i.e. achieving the same result by using less energy).
Uniquely, for Goal 13, the “number.number”-type targets are also general in nature. Strengthening adaptive capacity,
integrating climate change measures into national strategies, and the single target regarding improving education and
institutional capacity are all prerequisites to non-defined target states.
TABLE II
GOALS IN SYNERGY WITH RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES, AND THE RELEVANT TARGETS (SDG, 2015)
7.1 “By 2030, ensure universal access to affordable, reliable, and modern energy services”
7.2 “By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix”
7.3 “By 2030, double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency”
13.1 “Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate related hazards and natural disasters in all countries”
13.2 “Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning”
“Improve education, awareness raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and
13.3
early warning”
b) Conflicting targets
Another two goals, specifically ending hunger (Goal 2) and protecting terrestrial ecosystems (Goal 15), may conflict with
the renewed growth in bio-fuels. In both cases, there is a single specific target that can potentially conflict with the use of these
types of fuel (Table 3). Any given plot of land, can only be used simultaneously for food and energy source production if the
plant in question is edible (target 2.3). It is possible that terrestrial ecosystems do not become a source of conflict. If production
does not grow faster than the natural growth rate, and if the desire for rapid growth does not stress the natural forest ecosystems,
even when taking climate change into account, then this source of conflict can be avoided (target 15.2).

icshge.org
TABLE III
GOALS CONFLICTING WITH RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES, AND THEIR RELEVANT TARGETS (SDG, 2015)
“By 2030, double the agricultural productivity and the incomes of small-scale food producers, in particular women, indigenous people, family
2.3 farmers, pastoralists and fishers, including through secure and equal access to land, other productive resources and inputs, knowledge, financial
services, markets, and opportunities for value addition and non-farm employment”
15.2 “By 2020, promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation, restore degraded forests, and increase
afforestation and reforestation globally”
C. Education of and by sustainability

Possible educational aspects related to the SDG do not directly follow from their content, but four aspects can be
recommended as possible ways of using SDG and related knowledge for teaching of and by sustainability. These aspects are
as follows:
(i) The SDG (2016-2030) are worth knowing for all pupils of ca. 15 years or elder as long term tasks for everyone on this
Globe. One can use these goals and targets to emphasise relative development of a given country or region presenting
national sustainability indicators.
(ii) Especially in higher education it might be useful to collect the related targets to a given wider topic, e.g. as it has been
done above for renewable energy sources. In this respect, renewable energy is just a possible field to specify the rather
wide set of SDG. For this, motivated audience it is also worth demonstrating how the concrete “number.number” targets
are mutually connected with the background and pre-condition type “number.letter” type targets.
(iii) It is useful to apply the SDG-s also for counteracting the often experienced rather selective topical selection among the
various problems by the public media. Some problems are over-emphasised by the various channels and home-pages,
whereas others are not represented at all. Having consequently rising all the problems for the adult or younger audience,
these problems might be adequately weighted. Furthermore, the teachers should also be active in preparation to introduce
the SDG or their selected topics for the given group of pupils, since the written targets themselves are not interesting
enough to attract their attention. Hence, proper illustrations of global or national character should be found by the
teachers, as well.
(iv) Finally, the SDG-related statements and examples are suitable for supporting selected topics of school-subjects. E.g.
trigonometric functions in mathematics can be demonstrated by solar collectors, i.e. one kind of renewable energy
sources. Steepness of the surface in geography can be illustrated by availability of water energy. Photosynthesis in biology
and fermentation in chemistry are clearly connected to bio-energy. Another possibility is improvement of the key
competences. Application of the above illustrations can themselves be used to improve Mathematical Competence and
Competences in Natural Science and Technology. The Digital and the Foreign language competences can be developed
by asking the pupils to search the appropriate targets in a given topic. Similarly, Communication in the Mother Tongue
together with their Learning to Learn competences can be improved simply by understanding and memorizing the goals
and targets. Social and Civic Competences may be developed by personal participation in some related voluntary
activities concerning e.g. poverty. This is how sustainability is not only an important topic to be educated, but also a
useful contributor to reach other aims of education.
III. PUBLIC SURVEY ON ENERGY, CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENT

A. Methodology
The Internet based questionnaire had been launched in May 2016 and the answers were collected until the end of
September in the same year. 831 responses were received answering the 107 questions on the list. Representativity of the
samples is enhanced by stratified sampling based on six different aspects (Table 4). This means that the averages calculated
for each stratum are weighted by the nation-wide true proportions, published by the Central Statistical Office, as related to the
year 2016. These aspects are (i) sex of the responders, (ii) location in the country, (iii) settlement size, (iv) age of the responders,
(v) number of people in one household and (vi) highest education of responders.
TABLE IV
THE APPLIED STRATIFICATIONS INCLUDING THE NAME AND FREQUENCY OF THE STRATA IN THE 831 RESPONSES
Stratification Strata Percentages
Sex (2 strata) man : woman 52 : 48 %
Location in the country (3) West : Central : East 26 : 52: 22 %
Settlement size (4) <5,000 : 5,000 – 50,000 : 50,000 -1 million : ˃1 million 15:29:27:29%
Age in years (5) <30: 30-40: 40-50: 50-60: ˃60 7 :18:32:25:18%
People in one household (5) 1:2:3:4:≥5 13:29:23:20:14%
Highest education (6) ≤8 yrs: techn. coll.: sec. school: college: university: PhD 4:11:7:34:38:6%
In the following sub-sections, the responses to the 107 questions are briefly presented in the following topical groups:
• Data on households and lifestyles (32 questions)
• Opinions on the environment (12 questions)
• Opinions on air pollution and energy (15 questions)
• Opinions on the reasons and the impacts of climate change (22 questions)
• Opinions on the environmental safety (26 questions)

icshge.org
B. Results on the households

Number of mobile phones was 1-2 per household. Number of TV-sets, laptop computers, vacuum cleaners and the other
kitchen machines is also over 1 piece per household. Nearly one Internet availability, washing machines, kitchen robots,
microwave ovens, toasters, desktop computers and other, non-kitchen devices are found in a household. Much more families
are equipped with gas cooker than with electric cooker.
Main component of the family budgets is food consumption (40%). Much less (10-20%) can be spent on summer vacation,
car fuels and redemption of housing debts. Nearly ten percent of the budget, or less is used for week-end and cultural programs,
car debts and winter skiing vacation.
Both groups contained by Figure 1 indicate that the financial situation of the responders was not special concerning the
general conditions over the country.
Electric oven
Skiing
Dishwasher
Tablet computer
Water boiler Car debt redemption
Gas-range
Printer Cultural programs

Toaster
Desktop computer
Week-end programs
Microwave oven
Other non kitchen…

Hausing debt redemption
Kitchen robot
Washing machine
Car fuels
Internet availability
Vacuum-cleaner
Laptop Summer vacation
Other kitchen device
TV Food
Mobile phone
0 1 2 0 10 20 30 40 50
Figure 1. (left) Availability of household machines stratified according to location in the country; (right) Distribution of family costs stratified according to
the sex of the responders, proportioned from 67.7% to 100%.
C. Results on environmental problems

The responders evaluate those environmental services with the highest marks which are perceived directly. They are e.g.
drinking water supply, waste collection, wastewater treatment and selective waste collection. From the dangers littering and
pollution by the enterprises are felt as most unpleasant ones, but climate change and pollution of the cities remains not by
much behind. Somewhat smaller marks are given for noise, ozone hole, acid rains and overpopulation of the cities.
Evaluation of these general environmental questions depend on the question put before the answer (Figure 2). Asking just
about the problems in question generally, the received by 0.5-1.0 (i.e. by 10-20%) higher values than in case of the questions
on the role of the same problems as factors of the responders’ everyday life. The average difference is 0.68 in this respect.
Evaluation of responses to the softer question indicate that the responders are highly sensitive to the exposed
environmental questions. Even the lowest evaluations are near or above 4.0.

icshge.org
Overpopulated cities
Acid rains
Question II.
Ozone hole
Question I. Noise
Urban air pollution
Climate change
Pollution by enetrprises
Selective waste treatment
Littering
Waste water treatment
Communal waste collection
Drinking water supply
0 1 2 3 4 5
Figure 2. Importance of selected environmental problems judged in response to two different questions. Question I. How important are the following
environmental problems for you? Question II. How much do the following problems affect your life? (Stratification according to the sex of responders).
D. Results on air pollution and energy

Sources of air pollution are mostly seen in the polluting materials emitted by the enterprises, in or everyday CO2 emission
and the communal wastes by the responders (Figure 3). Somewhat smaller, but still around 4.0 are the importance of urban
overpopulation, the climate change (which is not a reason but a consequence) and the anachronistic heating systems of flats.
Much less important are the ozone hole (a consequence of the pollution, again) and the animal ordure.
Ordure from animals
Ozone hole
Anachronistic heating of flats
Climate change
Overpopulated cities
Public waste
Every day CO2 emission
Pollution by enterprises
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

Figure 3. Evaluation of various forms of air pollution (Stratified according to education).
The renewable energy sources received the highest (almost 5.0) evaluation among the energy sources. whereas the worst
numbers (nearly 3.0) were given to nuclear and fossil energy forms (Figure 4). These evaluations are obviously driven by
environmental considerations not by those motivated by reality of energy feasibility. Energy consumption and CO2-emisson
of the living houses are highly evaluated (over 4.0), as well. Questions related to nuclear energy are evaluated in strange
manner: high energy dependence is connected with the lack of nuclear plant, but no change in CO2-concentration is assumed

icshge.org
for this case, whereas misunderstood air-quality changes are reported.
Fossil energy (coal, oil, gas)

Air quality without nuclear
Nuclear energy
CO2 emision without nuclear
CO2 emission by houses
Energy dependence without nuclear
Energy use of houses
Renewable energy (solar, bio, geo)
0 1 2 3 4 5
Figure 4. Evaluation of the different energy sources (Stratification according to the sex of responders.).
E. Results on climate change

Highly ranked are the carbon-dioxide emission among possible reasons of climate change. This evaluation is correctly
much higher than those for internal processes of the Earth or solar activity. Deforestation is higher marked than its real danger,
but evaluation of animal husbandry and agriculture are evaluated nearly according their real contribution. One should note that
besides he scientifically correct terms for reasons of climate change, high ranks are given to less defined terms, as
irresponsibility or public, as well.
Impacts of climate change related to water supply are ranked slightly higher than those related to plant production or
energy demands. But, the difference between “re-considering or water management” and “less energy is needed for heating”
is only slightly over 1.0. This reflects the high mental sensitivity of the responders to all potential changes of climate change.
Both above features are demonstrated below in Figure 5.
Solar activity
Natiral processes of Earth
Animals, agriculture
Public
Deforestration
CO2 reaching the air
Fossil fuel burning
Enterprises
Human irresponsibility
0 1 2 3 4 5
Less heating in winter
More energy used in households
Increasing food prices
More expensive field cultivation
Water reservoirs to be built
More energy for air conditioning
Re-considering the water management

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
Figure 5. (upper) Evaluation on potential reasons of climate change according to highest education stratification; (lower) Evaluation on various impacts of
climate change according to stratification based on location within the country.

icshge.org
F. Results on environmental safety

Responders consider the lack of clean water, energy and healthy food not of high risk, but air ad environment pollution
are evaluated over 4.0. Migration and overpopulation meant low risk in the time of the survey (Figure 6). In case of another
15 problems it is established that the evaluations depend on the compilation of the question even if they were of similar
meaning after first reading.
Migration
Overpopulation
Movement of people
Poverty
Safe energy supply
Terrorism, war
Occurrece of illnesses
Clean water scarcity
Healthy food scarcity
Increasing environmental pollution
Air pollution
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
Ordure from animals

Decaying plant components
Decaying soil components
Littering of streets
Nuclear energy
Noise
Overpopulation of cities Q I. - Q II.
Anachronistic heating of flats
Question II.
Acid rains
Public waste Question I.
Ozone hole
Air pollution of cities
Everyday CO2 emission
Pollution by enterprises
Climate change
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Figure 6. (upper) Evaluation of environmental safety factors, according to stratification based on the sex of the responders; (lower) Evaluation of
environmental safety problems in response to two different questions, Question I. “To what extent mean risk and threat the followings?” Question II. “To
what extent influence the followings your feeling being in safety?”
G. General and specific differences among the sample strata

Women are more sensitive concerning state of the environment in almost all particular aspects analysed. This means
higher evaluation of their importance by women than by men. At the same time, responders with high education mark the risks
less than those finished just technical college (Figure 7).
Besides these general differences among the strata, we could rarely stablish large monotonous differences among the
strata averages. One such difference is the increasing number of computer printers in the household with the increasing age of
the responders. The other plausible difference is that evaluation of urban pollution gets higher with the increasing number of
inhabitants. (Figure 8).

icshge.org
Selective waste management Public waste

5 3.8
4.5 3.3
4 2.8
Figure 7. (left) Characteristic difference between environment sensitivity of men and women; (right) Characteristic decrease in evaluation of the problems
by responders with high education. The categories of axis X: man (“férfi”) – woman (“nő”); below 8 years in school, technical college, secondary school,
college, university, person with scientific degree.
Printer Air pollution of large cities

1.2 4
0.8 3.5
0.4 3
30 alatt 30-40 40-50 50-60 60
fölött
Figure 8. (left) Unique difference in frequency of printer sin the family with increase of the age of responders; (right): Unique difference in evaluation of
urban air pollution according to the settlement size. The categories of axis X: for the ages, below (“alatt”) above (“fölött”); for the inhabitants below 5,000,
5,000 - 50,000, 50,000 - 1 million, above 1 million.
IV. UTILISATION OF THE RESULTS

In English we use policy and politics, where the latter is highly evaluated by the parties in a democracy. In order to
convince the parties to work for policy, as well it is important to know what the potential voters think about the various policy
aspects.
The results of the survey, presented just briefly based on a larger study, may serve as factual basis of such bridge between
policy and politics, reflecting what people think about energy, climate, pollution, as well, as on environmental safety and
sustainability.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This study was supported by the National Research, Development and Innovation Office (NKFIH), Project No. K 116595 and
this support is gratefully acknowledged here.
REFERENCE
SDG (2016-2030). United Nations Resolution A/RES/70/1 of 25 September 2015. The Goals are listed in par. 51. Available Online:
http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/RES/70/1&Lang=E

icshge.org
Economic Valuation of the Reef Attributes of Cozumel Island

Lara-Pulido, J.A.,1 Mojica, Á.,2 Bruner, A.,3 Simon, C.,4 Vázquez-Lavin, F.,5 Guevara-Sanginés, A.,6 and
Infanzón, M.J.7
1
Instituto de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo con Equidad (EQUIDE), Universidad Iberoamericana Ciudad de México
2
Independent Consultant
3
Conservation Strategy Fund (CSF)
4
Independent Consultant
5
Facultad de Economía y Negocios, Universidad del Desarrollo, Chile
6
Departamento de Economía, Universidad Iberoamericana Ciudad de México
7
Universidad Iberoamericana Ciudad de México
Abstract—This paper studies the economic value of transparency, biodiversity, and congestion in the reef of Cozumel Island.
The methodology used was a choice experiment of 750 representative surveys of the different types of tourists that dives in
the Cozumel reef. It was found that visitants are willing to pay 1,826 pesos (USD 101) to avoid a decrease from a high to
medium level of biodiversity and 1,226 (USD 68) to prevent the opacity of the reef. The results are not conclusive in levels of
congestion. These results are relevant in terms of public policy since they exceed the current cost of the tours offered on the
site and by far the rates of the government dedicated to conservation. Therefore, there is a large margin to obtain economic
resources that can be dedicated to the conservation of the reef.
Keywords—choice experiment, contingent valuation, ecosystem services
I. INTRODUCTION
T HE island of Cozumel is located at the east of the Yucatan Peninsula. According to the World Resources Institute, it has
an approximate distance of 81 kilometers of reef part of the Mesoamerican Reef System (MBRS), as well as 3,654 hectares
protected at the federal level (CONANP-GIZ, 2017).
Cozumel is an attractive center for tourists, mainly those from cruise ships. Each year, it receives approximately 3 million
visitors; source of important revenues, but also of important pressures on the reefs. It is estimated that the tourist load capacity
is exceeded, which is detrimental to the health of the ecosystem (Segrado Pavón, Arroyo Arcos, Amador Soriano, Palma
Polanco, & Serrano Barquín, 2015). Further, although the current state of conservation is high, if the current level of visitation
is maintained and no investment in conservation is done, it can be significantly affected in coming years. Therefore, the
following study aims to explore funding and financing options by determining the payment availability of visitors to preserve
the conservation status of the reef.
Figure 1. Cozumel Island. Source: Author´s own elaboration with information of the Millennium Coral Reef Mapping Project de IMaRS/USF y IRD.

icshge.org
II. MATERIALS AND METHODOLOGY

The willingness to pay for desirable attributes of the Cozumel reef was estimated by a choice experiment. This method
has been widely used in recent years to analyze preferences on goods and services that do not have a market, in particular, to
estimate the economic value of ecosystem goods and services (Holmes, Adamowicz, & Carlsson, 2017).
In this article, the attributes of biodiversity, transparency, and congestion were analyzed. Their selection followed by a
literature review in which the most important attributes for reef users were identified. For example, (Williams & Polunin,
2000) identify that the variety of coral and fish species and their abundance are the most important attributes for them. (Polak
& Shashar, 2013) find that divers prefer fish diversity more than their affluence. (Pabel & Coghlan, 2011) notice that
experienced divers have a greater preference for marine life diversity, underwater beauty, and coral aspect. Similarly,
(Pendleton, 1994) encounter that quality is important to explain visitation to dive sites.
From this review it was initially proposed as attributes to be analyzed: fish diversity and abundance, reef quality,
congestion, the presence of charismatic species, coral surface extension, protected area´s size, and access fees. This first
proposal of attributes was derived from the previously mentioned studies and also from other studies that have analyzed the
recreational use of reefs, namely, (Sorice, Oh, & Ditton, 2005), (Gazzani & Marinova), (Carlson, 2015), (Tawfik & Turner,
2010), (Rolfe & Windle), (Grafeld et al., 2016), (Börger, Hattam, Burdon, Atkins, & Austen, 2014) and (van Beukering et al.,
2006).
Figure 2. Example of an attribute choice card, of which the respondent has to indicate his preference for option A, B, or C. Source: Author´s own
elaboration.
Subsequently, to reduce the number of attributes to be analyzed (a large number of attributes make the design and
application of the data collection instrument more complex), it was decided to conserve only the attributes generically named

icshge.org
biodiversity, transparency, congestion, and tariffs. The biodiversity attribute refers to both abundance and diversity of species,
transparency is a proxy for reef quality, congestion alludes to the number of people diving in a certain place and time, and
tariffs advert to the additional cost that the user has to pay to obtain a certain level of characteristics.
TABLE I
DESIGN OF DECISION SETS
Biodiversity Transparency Congestion Tariff (MXN pesos) Decision set Alternative Block
Low Low Moderately 100 1 A 2
High High Highly 150 1 B 2
Low Low Highly 0 1 Base 2
High Medium Highly 100 2 A 2
Medium High A little 1700 2 B 2
Medium Medium Moderately 0 3 A 2
Low High Highly 200 3 B 2
High Medium A little 200 4 A 1
Low Low Highly 110 4 B 1
Low Low A little 800 5 A 2
Medium High Moderately 2000 5 B 2
Low High Moderately 2000 6 A 2
High Low Highly 500 6 B 2
Medium Medium Highly 800 7 A 1
High High A little 1400 7 B 1
High Medium Moderately 100 8 A 2
Medium High A little 110 8 B 2
High High Moderately 800 9 A 2
Medium Medium A little 150 9 B 2
Medium High A little 500 10 A 1
High Low Moderately 110 10 B 1
Medium Medium Highly 500 11 A 1
High Low Moderately 1700 11 B 1
Low High Moderately 1400 12 A 1
Medium Low Highly 150 12 B 1
Low Medium A little 2000 13 A 1
Medium Low Moderately 200 13 B 1
High High Highly 2000 14 A 1
Low Low A little 100 14 B 1
Low Medium Highly 150 15 A 1
Medium Low Moderately 1700 15 B 1
Low Medium Moderately 500 16 A 2
High Low A little 1400 16 B 2
Source: Author´s own elaboration.
These attributes also need to be 1) understandable for the interviewees and avoid the use of relatively specialized terms
(e.g. the structure of the coral), and 2) directly related to their experience of the use of the reef. Therefore, drawings were
chosen to represent the attributes to be analyzed (figure 2). For the attributes of biodiversity, transparency, and congestion, we
defined three levels (high, medium and low), and for tariffs ten levels were specified (from 0 to 2,000 pesos or 114 USD). This
range was determined from a pilot test (N = 70) with a maximum fee of 3,000 pesos (171 USD), where people were not willing
to accept rates above this 2,000.
A choice experiment requires to establish the number of attributes –which is three in our case—, the levels of each attribute
–three for the attributes of biodiversity, transparency, and congestion, and ten for tariff—, the number of decision sets, and the

icshge.org
number of alternatives in each decision set. For the last requirements, 16 decision sets and 3 alternatives were selected for each
respondent. The number of decision sets could be divided into blocks if it is very high. Thus, we considered 2 blocks (with 8
choice sets each), to facilitate the implementation of the instrument (Johnson et al., 2013).
DCREATE of Stata was used to design alternatives for each of the 16 choice sets (8 for each block), with the possibility
of creating dominant combinations which will always be answered by the respondent. The process of designing, reviewing
and modifying dominant alternatives was repeated 50 times and in each iteration, the D-efficiency of the design was evaluated.
(Kuhfeld, 2005) indicates that the D-efficiency is a relative measure and it must be compared between different designs in the
same situation, with the same attributes and levels. The final design has a D-efficiency of 89%, which was the highest, then,
the more acceptable (the maximum value is 100%). The final design is presented in table 1. As it was commented one 50% of
the sample answered the questions of block 1, the other one, block 2. The size of the sample was determined by the formula
of (de Bekker-Grob, Donkers, Jonker, & Stolk, 2015):
2
𝑞 −1
𝑎2
𝑁>( ) ∙ (Φ (1 − ))
𝑟𝑝𝑎12 2
Where 𝑁 is the size of the sample, p the probability of the population choosing an alternative, and 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝, 𝑟 is the number
of decision sets, 𝛼1 the allowed deviation from the true proportion of the population and 𝛼2 the level of significance. Since we
do not have a previous estimation of the proportion of the population, we assumed maximum variance (i.e. 𝑝 = 0.5). In
addition, the following values were considered for the required parameters: 𝑟 = 16; 𝛼1 = 0.03; 𝛼2 = 0.03, obtaining 𝑁 >
327.
It should be noted that there are two main visitors: (i) hikers and (ii) tourists. Hikers do not stay overnight in Cozumel,
like cruise passengers and people staying at Playa del Carmen and Cancún (two beach destinations very close to Cozumel).
Tourists, on the other hand, stay more than one night in Cozumel. Therefore, it was decided to double the size of the sample
to it be representative of both types. The total number of interviewees was 750, of which 740 were complet. The surveys were
conducted in the month of June 2016. The survey was applied at strategic points on the island (airport, ferry dock, cruise pier,
central plaza, and dive shops), with the necessary permissions, obtaining a good mix of both national and foreign visitors, with
diverse sociodemographic characteristics.
III. DESCRIPTIVE RESULTS

From the 740 complete interviews, it is observed (Table 2) that 59% of the respondents spend the night in Cozumel, and
68% did diving or snorkeling activities. The average age of the sample is 36 years and its average monthly income of Mexican
visitors is 13,092 pesos and 143,076 pesos for foreigners.
According to the Intercensal Survey 2015 (Inegi, 2015), the average age in Mexico is 31 years; which is consistent with
the average age of the sample if only Mexican visitors (33 years) are contemplated. Also, the women in the Mexican sample
are 49.5%, which is slightly lower than the national percentage (51.4%). However, the average income became somewhat
lower than the one reported in the National Household Income-Expenditure Survey of Mexico (Inegi, 2016), which reports an
income of 15,507 pesos per month. Still, it should be noted that the ENIGH estimations consider current income from property
rental and other transfers, so it is possible that the estimate obtained from the sample is underestimated. If only work income
is considered, the ENIGH reports a monthly income of 9,968 per household, which is 30% lower.
As well, there is a significant difference between the estimation obtained in the Mexican sample of 14.4 years and the
national average of 9.2 (Inegi, 2015). This difference is consistent with the income estimation.1 In addition, the divergence is
similar to the user’s profile reported by (Torruco & González-Solis, 2015), whom describe the socio-economic characteristics
of the beach tourism in Quintana Roo.
TABLE II
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
Variable Unit Obs Mean Desv. Est. Min Max
Tourist Percentage 740 0.59 0.49 0 1
Visits Number 740 2.49 4.29 1 50
Stay in Cozumel Days 740 5.79 21.06 1 360
Trip duration Days 740 10.97 41.51 1 730
Includes diving or snorkeling Percentage 740 0.68 0.47 0 1
activities
Diver Percentage 740 0.33 0.47 0 1
Congestion Perception Negative=-1, 740 -0.65 0.63 -1 1
Irrelevant=0,
Positive=1
Ambiental Org. Percentage 740 0.13 0.33 0 1
Dependants Number 738 2.14 1.53 0 21
Age Years 739 36.23 13.63 13 74
Women Percentage 740 0.46 0.50 0 1
Schooling years Years 740 14.71 2.45 0 18
Income (mexicans) Pesos/month 206 13,092.72 12,820.4 2000 48000
1
Considering the results of returns to education reported by (Ordaz, 2007), the difference between the years of schooling of the sample and the national
average would explain 62% of the difference in income, which is similar to the difference between national income (only for work) and that of the sample
(55%).

icshge.org
Income (foreigners) Pesos/month 294 143,076.00 92592.47 15416.67 308333.3

Married Percentage 723 0.49 0.50 0 1
Work Percentage 740 0.70 0.46 0 1
Source: Author´s own elaboration.
Given the results showed in table 2, we consider that the sample obtained is representative and, therefore, it constitutes a
good base to make statistical inferences about its availability to pay for the attributes of the reef. This willingness to pay is
modeled after estimating the probability of a person choosing an alternative in a given situation.
It is based on the Random Utility Model, which assumes that a person will choose a certain alternative if he obtains a
level of satisfaction (utility) greater than the rest of the eligible alternatives. Formally this is stated in equation (1).
𝑉𝑖𝑘 > 𝑉𝑗𝑘 ; ∀𝑗 ∈ 𝐶 (1)
Where 𝑉 represents the (indirect) utility associated with the alternative i obtained by the individual k and compared with the
rest of the alternatives j that belong to the set of possible alternatives C (Holmes et al., 2017). Generally, it is assumed that
indirect utility is a function of a vector of characteristics associated with alternative i and an independent error term. This is
shown in equation (2).
𝑉𝑖𝑘 = 𝑣𝑖𝑘 (𝑍𝑖 ) + 𝜖𝑖𝑘 (2)
With this approach, what is estimated is the probability that the utility of alternative i is greater than the probability of the other
alternatives j, as shown in (3).
𝑃𝑖𝑘 = 𝑃[𝜖𝑖𝑘 − 𝜖𝑗𝑘 > 𝑣𝑗𝑘 (𝑍𝑗 ) − 𝑣𝑖𝑘 (𝑍𝑖 ); ∀𝑗 ∈ 𝐶] (3)
Probability is generally estimated assuming that the errors have an extreme value distribution of Type I (Holmes et al., 2017).
If this is the case, then it is possible to specify a logistic model. There are basically 4 types of logistic models: (i) conditional
logit, (ii) multinomial logit, (iii) mixed logit, and (iv) latent class model (Greene & Hensher, 2003; Hoffman & Duncan, 1988).
The fundamental difference between these models is the type of variables that are included in the estimation. The conditional
logit includes those that vary by alternative j, the multinomial those that vary by individual, and the mixed include both. In the
conditional logit, you get a unique coefficient per variable (for example, the price of the alternative); in the multinomial logit
you get a different coefficient for each alternative (for example, the effect in each alternative for years of schooling); therefore,
in the mixed logit both types of coefficients are obtained according to its variability (by individual or alternative).
The conditional and multinomial models rest on the assumption of Irrelevant Alternatives Independence (IIA), which has been
found to have important limitations (Greene & Hensher, 2003). Essentially, it assumes that the probability of alternative A and
B remains unchanged even though a third alternative C exists or not. Empirically, it has been found that this assumption does
not hold. Therefore, alternative models have been developed that relax these assumptions.
IV. RESULTS
The choice experiment resulted from conditional logit (CL) and mixed logit (MXL) models are presented in Table 3.
When considering ordinal variables, it is necessary to create a dummy variable per option, in that order, a dummy biodiv1 was
created for the preference low (level 1), biodiv2 for medium (2) level, biodiv3 for high (3) level, and so for each attribute.
Since there must be a comparable status, level 1 for each characteristic would not appear in the results. In the next table, it can
be seen that
TABLE III
RESULTS OF MIX LOGIT MODEL
Variables Coeff. WTP (mxn pesos)
price -0.00057***
(0.00)
$2490.26
bioidiv2 1.41945***
1,267.98 (51%)
Difference to reach the next level (0.08)
$3758.24
biodiv3 2.14220***
(0.11)
$2007.93
transp2 1.14452***
482.93 (24%)
$2490.86
transp3 1.41979***
(0.09)
$1833.72
conges2 1.04522***
281.47 (15%)

icshge.org
$2115.19
conges3 1.20566***
(0.09)
/l11 1.41894***
(0.09)
/l21 1.790903***
(0.12)
/l31 0.1208421
(0.09)
/l41 0.219204**
(0.11)
/l51 -0.1094796
(0.09)
/l61 -0.1510235
(0.12)
/l22 0.9220006***
(0.10)
/l32 -0.1276243
(0.10)
/l42 0.3896606***
(0.12)
/l52 0.262837**
(0.09)
/l62 0.5100787***
(0.11)
/l33 0.4265998***
(0.09)
/l43 0.2301323***
(0.12)
/l53 -0.2337573**
(0.10)
/l63 -0.2054548
(0.13)
/l44 0.4957321*
(0.29)
/l54 0.2301323*
(0.13)
/l64 -0.0133953
(0.16)
/l55 0.3654689***
(0.11)
/l65 0.9234847***
(0.11)
/l66 -0.2618142*
(0.14)
LR chi2(21) 619.09
Log-likelihood -4609.5616
Observations 17,760
Note: *** significant at 1% level; standard deviations are in parentheses.

Source: Author’s own elaboration.
As it can be seen, each attribute level is significant al 1% level. Each willingness to pay answer accordingly to its marginal
utility in which to reach a higher level in each attribute, visitants are willing to pay more. In that way, for biodiversity, the
willingness to pay is the uppermost ($2,490.26 for the second level, $3,758.24 for the third level), as well as its marginal value
to reach the highest lever from the medium one ($1,267.98). However, if we consider that the greater the congestion, the worse
the quality and service offered, the results of the congestion attribute are incomprehensible, since they show a willingness to
pay for a more congested reef. For further comprehension, a Latent Class (LC) model was defined.
To define the number of classes, first the model was run for two classes, then three, then four and so on. However, when
trying to run the model with seven classes the convergence could not be reached nor were there enough observations to finish
its estimations. Consequently, the five models were evaluated based on their Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), which the
lower, the better. Thence, a model with six classes was chosen with a BIC of 9419.4599, the smallest of all. The results of each
class are as follow:
TABLE IV
RESULTS OF THE LATENT CLASS MODEL
Variable Class 1 Class 2 Class 3 Class 4 Class 5 Class 6
price 0.00000 -0.00168*** -0.00064*** -0.00154*** 0.00003 0.00099
(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00)
bioidiv2 2.95003*** 4.98665*** -0.27809 1.55917*** 0.25331 3.40956***

icshge.org
(0.24) (0.20) (0.18) (0.26) (0.17) (1.14)

biodiv3 1.74257*** 1.02734*** 0.97032*** 1.47843*** 0.56067*** 4.77671***
(0.21) (0.37) (0.13) (0.34) (0.12) (1.08)
transp2 -0.05489 3.28181*** 1.82310*** 1.29292*** 0.43510*** -1.54390*
(0.22) (0.39) (0.23) (0.25) (0.13) (0.86)
transp3 3.96608*** 10.64420 1.00312*** 1.51372*** -0.03056 2.67593**
(0.35) . (0.15) (0.38) (0.18) (1.06)
conges2 2.56828*** 2.19867*** 1.63656*** 0.92824*** 0.13278 6.47892***
(0.32) (0.35) (0.22) (0.26) (0.18) (1.39)
conges3 -0.77990** 7.21965*** 2.63032*** 1.35756*** 0.08475 -1.18940
(0.37) (0.35) (0.28) (0.35) (0.17) (0.93)
Share1 Share2 Share3 Share4 Share5

_cons 1.586826 .8584248 1.377695 1.017244 1.111402
(0.32) (0.33) (0.35) (0.35 (0.36)
Note: *** significant at 1% level; ** significant at 5% level; * significant at 10% level; standard deviations are in parentheses.
The price estimations for choice one, five and six were not statistically significant; therefore, there is no form to calculate the
willingness to pay (WTP) of 64.56% of the sample (sample proportion by class in Table 5 accordingly to its maximum
probability of belonging). This percentage includes mainly people who do not take the survey seriously, thus their results were
not coherent.
TABLE V
RESULTS OF LATENT CLASS MODEL
Class 1 2 3 4 5 6
Frequency 732 4,082 740 1,472 6,294 4,440
Percentage 4.12% 22.98% 4.17% 8.29% 35.44% 25.00%
However, for the rest of the classes, we calculate the willingness to pay. In Table 6, the same problem for congestion
appear, people are willing to pay for a more crowded reef, that is why even though the WTP is displayed, it is not taken into
consideration. Class 2, the major of the significant choices (22.98%), show the most willing to pay and each estimation respond
accordingly. These visitants are disposed to pay, more for biodiversity than any other attribute, up to $2969.75 to reach a
medium level and an additional difference of $3,369.29, more than double –for the rest of the characteristics, people defined
its marginal utility from a medium level to a higher, multiplying per more than two. The persons in this class represent the
population more committed with the preservation of the reef, both remains are not inclined to pay as much.
Class 3 present coherent results but a lower disposition to pay, despite, the undetermined payment for a medium number of
species. They care more for the quality of water than biodiversity. The last class given show peculiar results, people are more
willing to pay for a medium level than for a higher, concluding that for this people exist an optimum level in the middle, and
are not disposed to pay more to reach a higher level.
TABLE VI
RESULTS OF WILLINGNESS TO PAY
Class 2 Biodiversity 2ndL Biodiversity 3rdL Water transparency 2ndL Water transparency 3rdL Congestion 2ndL Congestion 3rdL
Wtp (mxn pesos) 2969.7469 6339.0395 611.82152 1309.394 1954.4482 4299.5819

minimum (ll) 2124.7189 4684.5488 212.56033 1024.8016 1381.6812 3197.6889
maximum (ul) 3814.7749 7993.5303 1011.0827 1593.9864 2527.2152 5401.475
Wtp (mxn pesos) UND 1573.7457 1522.279 2567.5155 2860.1597 4126.5752

minimum (ll) UND 872.05065 702.94827 1706.4318 1887.4222 2508.787
maximum (ul) 96.310698 2275.4408 2341.6097 3428.5993 3832.8973 5744.3633
Wtp (mxn pesos) 1013.2625 983.72861 960.78989 603.24098 840.23208 882.24117

icshge.org
minimum (ll) 684.01099 555.71792 520.60947 333.88136 590.16698 492.81542

maximum (ul) 1342.514 1411.7393 1400.9703 872.6006 1090.2972 1271.6669
Note: UND, undetermined

Source: Author’s own elaboration
Therefore, according to their proportions in the sample, we can say that there is a total WTP, from a weighted average,
per attribute as it is shown in the following table, considering for the 64.56% a WTP equals zero.
TABLE VII
TOTALS WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR THE WHOLE POPULATION
Attribute Level WTP (mxn pesos)
Biodiversity 2ndL $ 766.45
Biodiversity 3rdL $ 1,603.89
Water transparency 2ndL $ 283.73
Water transparency 3rdL $ 457.97
Congestion 2ndL $ 638.06
Congestion 3rdL $ 1,233.26
As it can be noted, the most important variable is biodiversity, for more than double of water transparency.
V. DISCUSSION
The results show that the willingness to pay super pass the actual tariffs and could finance the conservation of the reef. It
is a demonstration of the possibilities to act on the preservation of the reef in a higher level of water transparency and amount
of species.
However, the results of congestion did not turn out as expected. They show a willingness to pay for a more crowded reef.
Therefore, we exhort on a deeper field study to understand this conduct or another survey to eliminate possible errors in the
understanding of the attribute or application of the survey.
VI. CONCLUSION
The findings give a financial option to work along with federal and local authorities in the preservation of the reef, to
reinforce present actions to guarantee the attribute’s levels for visitors in order to offer a greater experience and continue to
strengthen tourism and economy in the island in a sustainable way. In addition, it offers a panoramic understanding of the
commitment of participants, and aware of a possible resistance of more than 68% of the population.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This Project was financed by the Project Evaluation of Ecosystem Services of Federal Natural Protected Areas of Mexico: an
innovative tool for financing biodiversity and climate change (EcoValor Mx), which was implemented by the Ministry of
Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT) through the National Commission of Natural Protected Areas (CONANP)
and the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH commissioned by the Federal Ministry of the
Environment, Nature Conservation, Public Works and Nuclear Safety (BMUB ), under the Agreement of Technical
Cooperation between the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany and the Government of the United Mexican States,
and its Amendment Agreement. The project is part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI). The BMUB supports the
Initiative by a decision of the German Parliament. Additionally, the Universidad Iberoamericana supported the travel expenses
of the coordinator of the field work in Cozumel.
REFERENCES
Börger, T., Hattam, C., Burdon, D., Atkins, J. P., & Austen, M. C. (2014). Valuing conservation benefits of an offshore marine protected area. Ecological
Economics, 108, 229-241.
Carlson, N. (2015). Preferences for Coral Reef and Fishery Management in Okinawa, Japan. Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics at Colby,
2(1), 90.
CONANP-GIZ. (2017). Valoración de Servicios Ecosistémicos del Parque Nacional Arrecife de Cozumel y del Área de Protección de FLora y Fauna Isla
Cozumel. In. Ciudad de México.
de Bekker-Grob, E. W., Donkers, B., Jonker, M. F., & Stolk, E. A. (2015). Sample size requirements for discrete-choice experiments in healthcare: a
practical guide. The Patient-Patient-Centered Outcomes Research, 8(5), 373-384.
Gazzani, F., & Marinova, D. (2007). Using choice modelling to account for biodiversity conservation: Non-use value for Ningaloo Reef.
Grafeld, S., Oleson, K., Barnes, M., Peng, M., Chan, C., & Weijerman, M. (2016). Divers' willingness to pay for improved coral reef conditions in Guam:
An untapped source of funding for management and conservation? Ecological Economics, 128, 202-213.

icshge.org
Greene, W. H., & Hensher, D. A. (2003). A latent class model for discrete choice analysis: contrasts with mixed logit. Transportation Research Part B:
Methodological, 37(8), 681-698.
Hoffman, S. D., & Duncan, G. J. (1988). Multinomial and conditional logit discrete-choice models in demography. Demography, 25(3), 415-427.
Holmes, T. P., Adamowicz, W. L., & Carlsson, F. (2017). Choice experiments. In A Primer on Nonmarket Valuation (pp. 133-186): Springer.
Inegi. (2015). Encuesta Intercensal 2015. In: Inegi México.
Inegi. (2016). Encuesta Nacional de Ingreso-Gasto de los Hogares de México (ENIGH) 2016. from Inegi
http://www.inegi.org.mx/saladeprensa/boletines/2017/enigh/enigh_08.pdf
Johnson, F. R., Lancsar, E., Marshall, D., Kilambi, V., Mühlbacher, A., Regier, D. A., . . . Bridges, J. F. P. (2013). Constructing experimental designs for
discrete-choice experiments: report of the ISPOR conjoint analysis experimental design good research practices task force. Value in Health, 16(1), 3-
13.
Kuhfeld, W. (2005). Marketing research methods in SAS: Experimental design, efficiency, coding and choice designs. Cary, North Carolina: SAS Institute
Inc.
Ordaz, J. L. (2007). México: capital humano e ingresos. Retornos a la educación, 1994-2005: cepal.
Pabel, A., & Coghlan, A. (2011). Dive market segments and destination competitiveness: A case study of the Great Barrier Reef in view of changing reef
ecosystem health. Tourism in Marine Environments, 7(2), 55-66.
Pendleton, L. H. (1994). Environmental quality and recreation demand in a Caribbean coral reef. Coastal Management, 22(4), 399-404.
Polak, O., & Shashar, N. (2013). Economic value of biological attributes of artificial coral reefs. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70(4), 904-912.
Rolfe, J., & Windle, J. (2010). Valuing protection of the Great Barrier Reef with choice modelling by management policy options.
Sorice, M., Oh, C., & Ditton, R. B. (2005). Using a stated preference discrete choice experiment to analyze scuba diver preferences for coral reef
conservation. National Fish and Wildlife Foundation Grant.
Tawfik, R. T., & Turner, R. K. (2010). Visitor Preferences for Coral Reef Conservation in Ras Mohammed National Park. Norwich: United Kingdom:
Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, University of East Anglia.
Torruco, D., & González-Solis, M. A. (2015). Perfiles sociales y económicos en la costa de Quintana Roo: su relación con el turismo de playa. Investigación
ambiental Ciencia y política pública, 7(1).
van Beukering, P., Haider, W., Wolfs, E., Liu, Y., van der Leeuw, K., Longland, M., . . . Massey, E. (2006). The economic value of the coral reefs of
Saipan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands: US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National
Oceanographic Data Center, Coral Reef Conservation Program.
Williams, I. D., & Polunin, N. V. C. (2000). Differences between protected and unprotected reefs of the western Caribbean in attributes preferred by dive
tourists. Environmental Conservation, 27(4), 382-391.

icshge.org
Systemic and SMART approach as an instrument

for dealing with brownfields
Turečková, K., and Nevima, J.
Department of Economics and Public Administration, School of Business Administration in Karvina, Silesian University in
Opava, Univerzitni Nam. 1934/3, 733 40 Karvina, Czech Republic; tureckova@opf.slu.cz (K.T.) and nevima@opf.slu.cz
(J.N.)
Abstract—Brownfields (as abandoned and unused sites and buildings) are an integral part of urban consequences of human
activities that can be transformed into a source that has not been used so far on both regional and national levels. As brownfields
are typical by their set of negative externalities, reusing brownfields, either partially or fully, might be perceived as one of the
aspects of sustainable development. The society-wide concerns for brownfield regeneration create pressure on owners of
brownfields and public institutions to target their activities on solving the problems connected to their occurrence and to search
for their new or alternative uses by abiding conditions of societal and environmental responsibility. The search for solutions
concerning brownfield re-use might be based on plenty of theoretical recommendations and experiences from praxis. With a
reference to the aim of this contribution, the systemic approach in brownfield regeneration will be introduced in the paper.
Sub-systemic approaches will be also studied. These are grounded in mental models and the complexity theory, specifically in
the presently most accentuated approach called the SMART approach. By means of these models, we are able to determine
and define suitable regeneration processes for individual unused buildings or sites. The core of the systemic approach lies in
analysis, modelling and description of cognitive processes and principles. They characterize the way of dealing with reality
and are closely interconnected with the study of natural and anthropogenic systems. At the same time, the SMART approach
is generally typical by using highly sophisticated analytical methods, approaches, ways of communication and techniques for
designing the aims, processes and planning of brownfield regeneration. The SMART approach is significantly linked to the
process of transfer of SMART solutions into material and non-material innovations. An analogy to the theoretical delimitation
of approaches applied for the issue of brownfields will be completed on the examples of best practices of brownfield
regeneration with an emphasis on its possibilities for a versatile, sustainable development of areas and environs that surround
the human society.
Keywords—brownfield, regeneration, SMART approach, sustainable development, system, systemic approach
I. INTRODUCTION
T HE term “brownfield“ involves all buildings and sites that are abandoned, unused, neglected or decaying, i.e. buildings
and land (properties) that do not fulfil their original purpose and are relics of industrial, agricultural, residential, military,
transport or other economic activities (CzechInvest, 2008 or Alker et al., 2000). Brownfields are an integral part of urban
consequences of human activities and are an inseparable manifestation of the dynamics of socio-economic changes that are
continuously accompanied by the transformation of the settlement and living space in the area of the given country (Turečková
& Nevima, 2018). The regeneration of brownfields may be based on a range of theoretical recommendations and experiences
from praxis, yet it always must respect the uniqueness of the given property in context of its localisation within the given area.
The objective of the paper is to introduce two possible approaches towards the brownfields regeneration and to specify their
use on the examples of best practices of the chosen brownfields in the Czech Republic. It is necessary to state that these
approaches have been already put in use, both in the sphere of brownfield regeneration as well as when dealing with other
interdisciplinary issues of the society. Regarding the aim of the paper, both the systemic and the SMART approach will be
introduced in order to emphasise their application impact when searching for the possibilities for the regeneration of abandoned
sites. The authors´ objective is thus to interconnect not yet defined and separate theoretical aspect of the systemic and the
SMART approach with the process of brownfields regeneration. The described findings and implications of the approaches
may supplement both expert and general discussions regarding the utilization of brownfields in favour of sustainable
development in the given area.
II. THE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK OF THE BROWNFIELDS

Brownfields, within the present (modern) approach and in connection with the economic development and current
dynamic deepening of the quality of life, are perceived as a significant, yet specific element of the territorial development and
spatial distribution of the cultural-natural environment (Brown, 2012 or Krzysztofik et al., 2016).
The re-use of abandoned land and sites helps within the urbanized area reduce the pressure to construct buildings in the
undeveloped areas (greenfields) and maintain the compactness of the present developed area. The re-use of abandoned sites is
also supported by the argument of undesirable effects related to the suburbanisation and urban sprawl (Frantal et al., 2015;
Putman, 2000, Oliver 2001, Jackson, 2002 or Sýkora, 2003). All this together with the common purpose to contribute to a
more sustainable development of the cities and settled rural areas regarding their physical compactness (Kladivo and Halas,
2012) might reduce the consequent environmental and health risks (Litt et al., 2002, Eiser et al., 2007) for local population,
and significantly contribute to an increase of attractiveness of cities and municipalities (Andrés and Grésillon, 2013,
Somlyódyné Pfeil, 2017 or Berkes, 2017). Such support might also help to enhance our responsibility (Tagaia, 2016) for
implications of our industrial history that still significantly affects the face and the structure of our contemporary cities.

icshge.org
Generally, the support for brownfields regeneration might strengthen our nowadays more environmentally friendly way of
perceiving our urban space that prefers utilization of existing properties instead of the ones that are being built on greenfields
(De Sousa, 2003).
De Sousa et al. (2009), Pediaditi et al. (2005), Navratil et al. (2018), Martinat et al. (2017) or Williams & Dair (2007) all
studied the regeneration of brownfields being conceptually analysed by defining the structure of the process of the regeneration
and its individual actors, the identification of its individual stages, an explanation of the cyclicity of the existence of
brownfields including the determination of positive and negative effects resulting from the existence or regeneration of
brownfields.
Other authors, for example, Martinat et al. (2016) or Alexandrescu et al. (2014) are dealing with the identification of
driving forces and barriers of the brownfields regeneration, they classify these factors according to the geographical location,
the type of the area or land use, or they quantify the criteria and evaluate the significance of the factors within the planning
and the decision-making process of the regeneration of abandoned sites and buildings (Chrysochoou et al., 2012, Schädler et
al., 2011 or Rizzo et al., 2015).
III. SYSTEMIC APPROACH

The systemic approach is a special-purpose and comprehensive way of thinking and solving problems. In our paper, we
apply a compact approach towards the problems solving regarding the process of brownfields regeneration with a necessary
determination of all the relevant phenomena and processes, together with an analysis in their inner and outer context and
impacts.
The core of the systemic approach is a partial research of the inputs and outputs of the system including the process of
their transformation and mutual interaction with the surroundings. There is a set of inherent and transcendent elements that are
interconnected by a specific functional relation and behaviour, and altogether they form a unit – system and its structure (von
Bertalanffy, 1968). As far as the brownfields are concerned, the system is real, artificial, open and complex. As it is not possible
to guess all the specific bonds among the elements of the brownfields regeneration, we may infer from the factual
interpretations and absolute enumeration of individual characteristics and connections, and thus work with a general system
based on the formal-logical construction defined by the objects of the reality. The general system then enables us to discover
in more detail our own objects of reality and connections between the objects and effects of the external real life.
The system is a special-purpose defined ordered nonempty set of elements and a set of bonds between the elements, when
the elements outside the “visible” border of the system influence the behaviour of the systems, and vice versa. The system
unites in itself its own relatively individual components ordered into a spatial structure and defined for the given time interval.
The extent of the description and analysis of the researched object that is described by this system depends on the level of the
detail of the study itself. The structure of the system may be analysed and defined at a different identifying level (decomposition
or aggregation of the system), while it is not possible even with the most perfect system of observation to reach outside the
border of recognisability (there is always an element of randomness) (Schejbal, 2000).
The process of discovering, analysis and modelling of physical systems usually starts with the mental activity, i.e. creating
mental models, which can be formally transformed into mental maps (Buzan, 2007 or Schejbal, 2012). The mental model, the
inner representation of the researched object, is usually based on the knowledge of the creators of the model. To make it
intelligible for the others, it is necessary to creatively transform this mental model into a symbolic-graphical chart. Such
visualised findings and thoughts supplemented with a text or icons (pictures and symbols) effectively represent the researched
problems. We may note that the words used in the mental model may be evocative (reflecting the same associations) as well
as creative (evoking some other and more general images). The aim of the mental models describing the analysed system is s
synthesis of human perception, learning, decision-making and behaviour with the real environment (Schejbal, 2012).
An example of the mental model, which represents in its simplified version an anthropogenic system of brownfields
regeneration, is portrayed in Figure 1. It is a set of concepts, elements, attributes and mutual bonds between them, through
which the real process of the brownfields regeneration may be defined. This system is in a direct interaction with the
environmental and natural system and with the socio-economic system. On one hand, the effects and manifestations that
precede the regeneration process are highlighted, while on the other hand the attributes resulting from the brownfield that has
successfully completed the regeneration are mentioned.

icshge.org
Figure 1. The systemic concept of regeneration of brownfields. Source: own processing
The second chosen systemic sub-approach, which is suitable to be applied in relation to the brownfields regeneration, is
the so-called theory of complexity, which is represented by a range of concepts, heuristics and analytical tools that attempt to
explain a complex phenomenon that is difficult to be fully explained through the traditional theories (Litaker et al., 2006). By
means of the theory of complexity, we can determine the systems as dynamic networks with plenty of mutually dependent
parts, their complex behaviour being based on a small number of relatively simple rules. In a simplified way, we may state
that it is a concept which defines and analyses complex systems using a background of a set of terms and approaches (Schejbal,
2012). Such an approach may be applied provided that there is a hidden pattern in the development and behaviour of complex
systems, be it economic system, geosystem, industrial organization or organization of the regeneration of abandoned
properties.
The verbal, graphical or mathematical projection (defining) and description of the system with its individual elements,
attributes, bonds and transformations in time in context of the process of the brownfields regeneration may be on one hand (1)
subjectively based on mental models, or (2) objectively determined using the theory of complexity. By combining both
systemic sub-approaches and with a reference to good practice examples, we are able to define such a systemic framework
that would, under the given conditions, serve as a suitable tool in planning and implementation of the regeneration of unused
land, and it would thus make the entire process more effective.
IV. SMART APPROACH

The term SMART is mostly seen and more popular in the sphere of management, where it serves as an analytical
technology for projecting the objectives. Lately, the word SMART has been perceived more like an equivalent of the word
clever or intelligent in context with various perceptions, solutions and approaches, and through which we want to accentuate
“a distinct, elaborated and complex perspective” through a range of scientific and practical disciplines. The SMART attitude
is typical for its highly sophisticated analytical methods, attitudes, communications and technologies used for projecting the
aims, procedures and planning, and it applies to the entire discipline of transfer of SMART solutions into the material and
immaterial innovations (Turečková & Nevima, 2018).
The SMART concept is a relatively new applied approach in individual regions of the regional development based on
both technical and non-technical innovations, through which we want to emphasise specific attributes that define such approach
in general (Borseková, Váňová & Vitálišová, 2017). Among these attributes of the SMART concept belong:
• emphasis on an innovative solution,
• maximum exploitability of resources without waste,
• responsibility towards surroundings,
• consideration towards the environment,
• dynamics and the ability to respond to new impulses quickly,
• and, looking for sophisticated ways how to solve the “challenges” in regard to the society development.
It is not possible to set an unambiguous definition of the SMART concept as it always reflects the concrete situation and the
sphere of concerned activities. In general, it can be stated that it is: “an innovative and functional approach that deals

icshge.org
responsibly with situations and with a positive impact on the society” (Turečková & Nevima, 2018). The output of the SMART
approach should include making the SMART Decision and finding SMART and functional Solution for the stipulated issue
(Borseková et al., 2018). In this paper, the SMART concept will be introduced from the perspective of the regeneration
approaches and reuse of abandoned sites and land. Considering this, we may adopt a narrow definition of the SMART approach
representing a concept of processes relying on (1) sustainable economic and regional development and (2) the quality of life
based on:
• an “open” approach towards the purposefulness of the given brownfield (regarding its potential use),
• new solutions, materials and procedures when regenerating the properties and areas,
• utilization of as many original material relics as possible,
• innovations in technical, technological and non-technical field related to the regeneration of brownfields,
• involvement and responsibility of all subjects participating in the regeneration of abandoned properties
Figure 2. The SMART concept in brownfield´s regeneration. Source: own processing
The SMART regeneration of brownfields represents not only the manifested regeneration and re-use of abandoned sites
or buildings in the true sense of the word, but it also gets diversified by the material and non-material aspects (see Figure 2).
Regeneration must (1) be socially beneficial in general, i.e. have positive effects and externalities for the society, (2) be based
on environmentally acceptable and responsible methods, (3) be connected to the local community and (4) rely as much as
possible on recycling of original materials that are located within the brownfield area. It is necessary to search new, more
effective and environment-friendly ways of brownfield´s waste recycling with the aim to conserve both renewable and non-
renewable resources. The subjects must behave in such a way that it is not contrary to the inherent ability of natural and social
environment to sustain the present system for the future, including fulfilment of social needs alongside with the sustainable
utilization of the cultural landscape.
V. SYSTEMIC AND SMART APPROACH AS AN INSTRUMENT FOR DEALING WITH BROWNFIELDS – GOOD PRACTICE EXAMPLES
The SMART approach may be identified in terms of the regeneration of transport brownfields in Paris, France, since the
early 1980s. It specifically includes the reconstruction of the former railway line, as well as unsuitable roads and transport
areas and buildings that were converted to the parks, promenades and areas for leisure time. For example, Coulée verte René-
Dumont (The René-Dumont Green Path), a public park opened for public in 1993, at the place of a former railway line
connecting the Bastille railway station and the valley of the Marne river stretching for 4,7 km and covering 3,7 hectares of
greenery. Another example is Coulée verte du sud parisien (green corridor in southern Paris). It is a grassed and wooded area
for leisure time activities stretching along the TGV railway between the cities of Massy and Paris. The area was originally
intended for the A10 motorway to Paris, but it was never implemented. Until 1939, there had been a railway from Paris to
Chartres. Nowadays, there is a 14-km long cycling path, walking paths, playgrounds, sports grounds, coffee shops, etc.
(https://en.parisinfo.com). In both cases, it is an unconventional regeneration of unused property, which favoured public
interest to the interests of private investors, and undoubtedly contributed to the improvement of the quality of life of the
population. This fact is supported by similar activities of large cities across entire Europe.

icshge.org
Another example of the SMART approach when regenerating mining and industrial brownfields is Berzdofer See in
Sachsen (Germany), which was created out of the former brown coal mine. The area of the lake is 960 hectares and it was
created at the place of the former lignite mine that had been put into operation in 1835. During its biggest boom, it employed
seven thousand people and produced up to 50 thousand tonnes of brown coal daily. The mine was closed in 1997, and between
2002 and 2013, it was transformed into a large lake, the thirtiest largest in Germany. Using the piping, it was flooded by the
river Nisa and it now serves to the public as a gigantic sports area with a wide range of activities. There is a harbour, campsite,
car park, water sports centre, golf course, volleyball courts and horse-riding path, and a unique castle built on the water on
beech pillars. The lake is suitable for windsurfing and yachting. The scuba-diving centre and a glass tunnel running below the
water surface should become the principal attraction in near future (https://www.berzdorfer-see.eu/).
The systemic approach in the process of regeneration of brownfields can be found with such regenerations that have
parallels in the formerly regenerated properties and areas, or the one with a principle of analogy.
A typical example of the systemic approach in context of the reutilization of abandoned buildings is a conversion of minor
aristocratic residences across the Czech Republic into accommodation facilities and restaurants. Plenty of chateaus (most of
which were in a very bad technical and constructional condition) were returned to their original owners under the property
restitution after 1989, who then retained this family possession, or they assigned it to other owners for financial reasons. As a
consequence, these buildings were successfully reconstructed, a lot of them into above-standard hotels such as Ratmerice
chateau (http://zamek-ratmerice.cz/), Petrovice chateau (http://www.zamecek-petrovice.cz/), Augustinian house
(https://www.augustian.cz/), Detenice chateau resort (https://www.detenice.cz/), Racice chateau
(http://www.zamekracice.cz/), Liblice hotel and chateau (http://www.zamek-liblice.cz/) and others. As these buildings are
architectonically similarly designed with a similar historical development, being usually located outside the major tourist
destinations, focusing on the identical specific clientele, providing similar service, etc. (i.e. a system with its own inputs,
outputs, elements, processes, attributes, bonds, ...), the tested approaches may be adopted and applied when regenerating
abandoned buildings of the same character in order to maximise the benefit of all involved subjects and minimise the costs.
VI. CONCLUSION
Both the SMART and the systemic approach may be applied when dealing with issues and problems occurring across the
scientific sphere. In this paper, the application of these approaches was narrowed down to the sphere of brownfields
regeneration and the benefits and strengths of such approaches for each individual case were highlighted. It is essential that
dealing with any issues and problems is based on properly formulated approaches and processes that result from appropriate
theoretical-methodological principles. With the right approach towards the process of brownfields regeneration, it is possible
to support the regional development with the idea that brownfield, rather than being an issue, is space with inner potential for
the future development and in which the cultural-historical legacy of our own history is reflected.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This paper was kindly supported by the project with the title „Brownfields in urban and rural space: geographic, economic,
historical, legal contexts and their importance for regional development (BURAN)“ (SGS/21/2016) and with the support of
the project CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17_049/0008452 „SMART technologies to improve the quality of life in cities and regions" co-
funded by the European Union.
REFERENCES
Alexandrescu, F. M., et al. (2014). The path from passivity toward entrepreneurship: Public sector actors in brownfield regeneration processes in Central
and Eastern Europe. Organization and Environment, 27(1), 181-201.
Alker, S., Joy, V., Roberts, P & Smith, N. (2000). The definition of brownfield. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 43(1), 49-69.
Andres, L. & Grésillon, B. (2013). Cultural brownfields in European cities: a new mainstream object for cultural and urban policies. International Journal of
Cultural Policy, 19(1), 40-62.
Berkes, J. (2016). I like living here. Social stratas attachment to the Hungarian big cities. DETUROPE – Journal of Regional Development and Tourism,
8(2), 8-22.
Borseková, K., Korony, S., Váňová, A. & K. Vitálišová, (2018). Functionality between the size and indicators of SMART cities: A research challenge with
policy implications. Cities, 78, 17-26. DOI: 10.1016/j.cities.2018.03.010.
Borseková, K., Váňová, A. & K. Vitálišová, (2017). SMART Specialization for SMART Spatial Development: Innovative Strategies for Building
Competitive Advantages in Tourism in Slovakia. Socio-economic planning sciences, 58(SI), 39-50. DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2016.10.004.
Brown, L. (2012). World on the edge: how to prevent environmental and economic collapse. Routledge. New York.
Buzan, T. (2007). Mentální mapování. Praha: Portál.
Chrysochoo U. et al. (2012). A GIS and indexing scheme to screen brownfields for area-wide redevelopment planning. Landscape and Urban Planning,
105(3), 187–198.
CzechInvest (2008). Národní strategie regenerace brownfieldů [online]. [2018-06-09]. Available from: http://www.cityinvestczech.cz/data/files/nsb-
595.pdf
De Sousa, C. A. (2003). Turning brownfields into green space in the City of Toronto. Landscape and urban planning, 62(4), 181-198.
De Sousa, C. A., Wu, C. & Westphal, L. M. (2009). Assessing the Effect of Publicly Assisted Brownfield Redevelopment on Surrounding Property Values.
Economic Development Quarterly, 23(2), 95-110.
Eiser, J. R., Stafford, T., Henneberry, J., & Catney, P. (2007). Risk perception and trust in the context of urban brownfields. Environmental Hazards, 7(2),
150-156.
Frantal, B., Greer-Wootten, B., Klusacek, P., Krejci, T., Kunc, J., & Martinat, S. (2015). Exploring spatial patterns of urban brownfields regeneration: The
case of Brno, Czech Republic. Cities, 44, 9-18.
Jackson, J. (2002). Urban Sprawl. Urbanismus a území rozvoj, 5(6), 21-28.
Kladivo, P. & M. Halas, (2012). Quality of life in an urban environment: A typology of urban units of Olomouc. Quaestiones Geographicae, 31(2), 49-60.

icshge.org
Krzysztofik, R., Tkocz, M., Sporna, T & Kantor-Pietraga, I. (2016). Some dilemmas of post-industrialism in a region of traditional industry: The case of the
Katowice conurbation, Poland. Moravian Geographical Reports, 24(1), 42-54.
Litaker, D. et al. (2006). Using Complexity Theory to Build Interventions that improve Health Care Delivery in Primary Care. Journal of general internal
medicine, 21(S2), 30-34.
Litt, J. S., Tran, N. L., & Burke, T. A. (2002). Examining urban brownfields through the public health" macroscope". Environmental Health Perspectives,
110(Suppl 2), 183.
Martinát, S., Navrátil, J., Pícha, K., Turečková, K. & P. Klusáček, (2017). Brownfield regeneration from the perspective of residents: place circumstances
versus character of respondents. DETUROPE – Journal of Regional Development and Tourism, 9(2), 71-92.
Martinat, S., P. Dvorak, B. Frantal, P. Klusacek, J. Kunc, J. Navratil, K. Turecková & M. Reed, (2016). Sustainable urban development in a city affected by
heavy industry and mining? Case study of brownfields in Karvina, Czech Republic. Journal of Cleaner Production, 118(1), 78–87.
Navratil, J., Picha, K., Martinat, S., Nathanail, P. C., Tureckova, K. & A. Holesinska, (2018). Resident’s preferences for urban brownfield revitalization:
Insights from two Czech cities. Land Use Policy, 76(1), 224-234. DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.05.013.
Oliver, J. E. (2001). Democracy in Suburbia. Princenton: Princenton University Press.
Pediaditi, K. et al. (2005). Monitoring the sustainability of brownfield redevelopment projects: The redevelopment assessment framework, 173-183. DOI:
10.2495/BF060061.
Putman, R. (2001). Bowling Alone. The Collapse and Revival of American Community. New York: Simon and Schuster.
Rizzo, E., Pesce, M., Pizzol, L., Alexandrescu, F. M., Giubilato, E., Critto, A., ... & S. Bartke, (2015). Brownfield regeneration in Europe: Identifying
stakeholder perceptions, concerns, attitudes and information needs. Land Use Policy, 48, 437-453.
Schädler, S., et al. (2011). Designing sustainable and economically attractive brownfield revitalization options using an integrated assessment model.
Journal of Environment Management, 92(3), 827–837.
Schejbal, C. (2000). Vliv strukturálního uspořádání přírodních objektů na metodiku jejich průzkumu. In: Sborník vědeckých prací VŠB Ostrava, r. hornicko-
geologická, XLVI, 115-124.
Schejbal, C. (2012). Mental models, systém theories and complexity in logistics. [online]. [2018-08-11]. Available from:
http://web2.vslg.cz/fotogalerie/acta_logistica/2012/1-cislo/5-schejbal.pdf.
Somlyódyné Pfeil, E. (2017). Chances of Effective Urban Policy in Hungary under the Influence of the European Cohesion Policy. DETUROPE – Journal
of Regional Development and Tourism, 9(3), 141-161.
Sýkora, L. (2003). Suburbanizace a její společenské důsledky. Praha, Sociologický ústav AV ČR.
Tagaia, G. (2016). The territorial dimension of social exclusion in East-Central Europe. DETUROPE – The Journal of Regional Development and Tourism,
8(2), 58-71.
Turečková, K. & J. Nevima, (2018). SMART approach in regional development. In: Proceedings of 16th International Scientific Conference Economic
Policy in the European Union Member Countries. Karviná: SU OPF Karviná, xx-xx.
Turečková, K. & Nevima, J. (2018). Perceiving the impact of brownfields on the real estate prices: A case study from four locations in the Czech Republic.
Geographia Technica, 13(2), xx-xx.
von Bertalanffy, L. (1968). Passages from General System Theory. [online]. [2018-08-11]. Available from:
https://www.panarchy.org/vonbertalanffy/systems.1968.html.
Williams, K. & C. Dair, (2007). A framework for assessing the sustainability of brownfield developments. Journal of Environmental Planning and
Management, 50(1), 23–40.

icshge.org
Developing the Urban Thermal Environment Management and Planning

(UTEMP) System to Support Urban Planning and Design
Lee, D.,1 and Oh, K.2,*
1
Research Institute of Spatial Planning and Policy, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea; estevan97@hanyang.ac.kr
2
Department of Urban Planning and Engineering, Hanyang University in Seoul, Korea; * ksoh@hanyang.ac.kr
Abstract—Mathematical modeling has the advantage of not only investigating the urban heat island phenomenon but also of
identifying the effects of a thermal environment improvement plan in detail. As a result, mathematical modeling has been
applied worldwide as a scientific tool for solving urban thermal environment problems. However, the meteorological modeling
developed until now has been insufficient in term of direct application to the urban planning and design fields due to the
preprocessing process for modeling operation and the excessive time required for modeling. Combining meteorological
modeling technology and GIS analysis technology, this study developed the Urban Thermal Environment Management and
Planning (UTEMP) system that can be user friendly and applied to urban planning and designing, and its usefulness was
investigated. The UTEMP system was applied to areas where the heat island phenomenon occurred frequently in Seoul, Korea,
and the accuracy of the UTEMP system was verified by comparing Automatic Weather Systems (AWSs) data. Urban spatial
change scenarios were established and air temperature variations according to such changes were identified. The urban
scenarios were distinguished by three cases including: existing condition (before the development), applications of the thermal
environment measures to existing condition, and allowable future urban development (the maximum development density
under the urban planning law). The UTEMP system demonstrated an accuracy of adj. R2 0.952 and a ±0.91 Root Mean Square
Error (RMSE). By applying the UTEMP system to urban spatial change scenarios, the average air temperature of 0.35 and
maximum air temperature of 1.27 ℃ was found to rise when the maximum development density was achieved. Meanwhile,
the air temperature reduction effect of rooftop greening was identified by an average of 0.12 ℃ with a maximum of 0.45℃.
Thus, the development of UTEMPS can be utilized as an effective tool for planning and designing to improve the urban thermal
environment.
Keywords—urban climate, mathematical modelling, GIS, urban planning and design
I. INTRODUCTION
T HE urban thermal environment is becoming increasingly worse as climate change, urbanization, and human activity
increase (Seto, Güneralp & Hutyra, 2012). These thermal environmental problems are causing negative urban problems
such as the worsening health of citizens, increases of energy consumption, decline of ecosystem service functions, and
deterioration of air quality (Grimm et al., 2008; Sarrat et al., 2006). In case of Korea, if greenhouse gas is emitted as BaU
(Business as Usual), it is expected that temperatures of about 4 - 5 ℃ will increase in most metropolitan cities after 100 years.
Not surprisingly, various attempts have been made to improve the thermal environment through planning and design techniques
including the introduction of heat reduction infrastructures and the creation of wind corridors.
Meanwhile, it would be ideal to utilize long-term observational data throughout entire urban areas in order to investigate
urban climatic characteristics and to analyze the effects of thermal environment improvement measures. However, this is
practically impossible due to space constraints, installation time, and expensive operating costs (Mirzaei & Haghighat, 2010).
Therefore, a mathematical climate simulation model that interprets natural phenomena as a mathematical equation using
computers has been mainly applied to urban thermal environment analysis.
The mathematical climate simulation model is capable of quantitative analysis of complex urban thermal environments
and have advantages in that similar iterative analyses can be conducted and verified relatively quickly at a lower cost than field
observation or wind tunnel tests. With recent advances in analytical techniques and computer processing speeds, the use of
mathematical modeling continues to increase in urban planning and design (Chen et al., 2011; Mirzaei & Haghighat., 2010).
On the meso-scale level, energy balance models such as WRF and MM5 have been applied to investigate overall
meteorological phenomena (temperature, wind direction, wind velocity, etc.) of large urban areas, and to analyze the effects
of heat environment improvement with the introduction of large parks and green areas (Dudhia & Bresch, 2002; Yang & Bou-
Zeid, 2018; Kim, Oh & Lee, 2018). In addition, a guideline map for planning and managing the thermal environment
throughout urban areas has been developed, taking into account the mathematical climate simulation model results and urban
spatial characteristics (Ren, Ng & Katzschner 2011).
On the other hand, on the micro-scale (building unit or block scale), the climate variations due to the introduction of heat
reduction infrastructures (vegetation and cool pavements expansion) or changes of building form and arrangement, has been
analyzed by applying a computational fluid dynamic model (CFD) such as Envi-met, Fluent etc. Gromke et al. (2015) identified
the heat reduction effects of introducing trees and green roofs applying the Fluent model. Wang, Berardi & Akbari (2016)
established thermal environment improvement scenarios combining albedo control, cool roofs introduction, and vegetation
expansion, and their heat mitigation effects were investigated using the Envi-met model. In addition, on the pedestrian level,
Ng et al. (2012) analyzed the heat reduction effect of green roofs by applying the Envi-met model.
Although the utilization of mathematical climate simulation model is increasing in the urban planning and design field to
improve the thermal environment, in order to apply urban planning and design alternatives mainly created by CAD or GIS to
the mathematical climate simulation model, a complex pre-processing is required. In particular, most modeling use the model
input database provided by the country where the modeling was developed, so important spatial characteristics are often

icshge.org
ignored when applying climate modeling to other countries. Therefore, there are difficulties for non-specialists related to
climate model research to operate mathematical climate simulation model. In addition, despite the progress of computer
processing speed, it takes a long time to identify model results, which makes it difficult to compare the alternatives that are
changed frequently in the process of urban planning and design.
Furthermore, most of the climate modeling that has been developed so far is limited to either the meso-scale or the micro-
scale depending on the characteristics of the model such as assumptions on meteorological phenomena. Therefore, in order to
establish effective measures to improve the thermal environment, as Shuzo (2006) and Mirzaei & Haghighat (2010)
emphasized, it is necessary to develop a model that integrates the meso-scale and the micro-scale model.
The limit of the applicability of the mathematical climate simulation model increases the need for system development
that can be effectively applied to urban planning and design for effective thermal environment improvement. As a spatial
decision support system to improve the urban thermal environment, this study developed the Urban Thermal Environment
Management and Planning (UTEMP) system that can be user friendly and applied to urban planning and design, and its
usefulness was investigated. In order to verify the accuracy of the UTEMP system as a mathematical climate simulation model
that integrates meso-scale and micro-scale characteristics, air temperature was simulated on the district-scale level (between
meso-scale and micro-scale), and simulated results were compared with observed air-temperature. In addition, its usefulness
to urban planning and design were identified by investigating air temperature variations according to urban spatial changes.
II. STUDY METHODS

A. Developing the UTEMP system
The UTEMP system was established by combining a GIS engine and thermal environment analysis engine, both of which
were developed by a private Korean company. The GIS engine of the UTEMP system has technological characteristics which
have international compatibility (meeting the OGC international standard) and provide over 80 types of geo-processing tools.
Meanwhile, the thermal environment analysis engine is kind of a morphological model that integrates a meso-scale and a
micro-scale model. This engine is capable of performing one-hour climate analysis of large-scale urban space (about
605.24km2) in 30m × 30m resolution within 20 minutes and securing an accuracy FAC2 (Fact of two) of more than 80%.
1) Main functions of the UTEMP system

The UTEMP system consists of 7 main functions and 27 sub functions such as 1) file, 2) home, 3) identifying urban
planning and climate inventories, 4) urban spatial change simulation, 5) establishment of thermal environment improvement
alternatives, 6) thermal environment analysis, and 7) thermal environment improvement plan assessment (Table 1). File and
home provide elementary GIS functions such as project creation and management, data input and removal, and geo-processing.
In case of urban planning and climate inventories, it provides basic information of the study area to establish thermal
environment alternatives such as zoning information, urban climate zones, topography, and land cover.
The most important functions of the UTEMP system are urban spatial change simulation, establishment of a thermal
environment improvement plan, thermal environment analysis, and thermal environment improvement plan evaluation. The
function of the urban spatial change simulation is that it can predict whether the individual buildings of the study area could
be changed to the maximum development density under urban planning law. In addition, if the urban development plan is
expected in the study area, this plan can be inputted for thermal environment analysis. The application of the typical planning
and design techniques to improve the thermal environment, such as the creation of a wind corridor and the introduction of heat
reduction infrastructures, is possible through the function of establishing the thermal environment improvement plan. Finally,
the thermal environment analysis and thermal environment improvement plan evaluation functions enable data pre-processing
for mathematical modeling and analyzing climate variations according to urban spatial changes. In other words, the UTEMP
system was developed to implement both climate modeling functions and thermal environment improvement measures (Figure
1).
TABLE I
MAIN AND SUB FUNCTIONS OF THE UTEMP SYSTEM
Main Functions Sub Functions

Project (project creation, open project, save), data (add data, remove data, export data), conversion data,
File
map creation
View (pan, zoom in/out, etc.), Selection (attribute/location selection), geo-processing (buffer, clip,
Home
intersect, union etc.), Measurement, view mode change
Urban Planning and management (zoning, urban facilities, land use, road, building, etc.) climate
Identifying urban planning and climate
information (air-temperature, wind direction, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity,
inventories
cloudiness etc.), climate characteristics (urban climate zones), topography, statistics
Maximum development density simulation, input alternatives, applying urban development patterns,
urban spatial change simulation
editing, statistics
Establishment of thermal environment Creation wind corridor (roads, buildings), heat reduction infrastructures introduction(urban parks,
improvement alternatives vegetation, cool pavements, green roofs, water spaces), establishing thermal environments scenarios
Climate modeling (air-temperature, wind speed, wind direction, Thermal comfort modeling, urban
Thermal environment analysis
spatial statistic

icshge.org
Thermal environment improvement plan Alternatives assessment (air temperature reduction, thermal environment improvement), alternatives
assessment comparison.
Figure 1. User interface of the UTEMP system.
2) Developing the thermal environment analysis engine

The thermal environment engine included in the UTEMP system is classified into a meso-scale climate model and a
thermal dispersion model. In case of the meso-scale climate model, it consists of a flat terrain PBL model, urban model, and
complex terrain model. In order to create a meteorological field which reflects urban spatial structure on the modeling area,
assuming that the model areas are a flat terrain, the first meteorological field is established based on AWSs observation data.
Next, an urban model is created reflecting building information including location and shape, and a final meteorological field
is generated reflecting elevation information on the urban model through a complex terrain model. On the other hand, a
temperature field model is composed of a heat source tag model (HSTM) and a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM).
Applying equation (1) developed by Nunez & Oke (1977), the HSTM calculates the energy balance of the model area based
on the meso-scale climate model.
𝑄𝑄 ∗ + 𝑄𝑄𝐹𝐹 = 𝑄𝑄𝑠𝑠 + 𝐻𝐻 + 𝐸𝐸 (1)
Q*: Net radiation,

QF = Artificial heat
Qs = Storage heat flux
H= Sensible heat flux
E= Latent heat flux
Considering the shade effect, the net radiation is calculated based on the shadow factor and the sky view factor. In order to
estimate the storage heat flux, equation (2) was applied and selected parameters for land covers were selected. They are
presented in Table 2.
𝜕𝜕𝑄𝑄∗
𝑄𝑄𝑠𝑠 = ∑𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑖=1 𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑖 𝑎𝑎1𝑖𝑖 𝑄𝑄 ∗ + ∑𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑖=1(𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑖 𝑎𝑎2𝑖𝑖 ) + ∑𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑖=1 𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑖 𝑎𝑎3𝑖𝑖 (2)
𝜕𝜕𝜕𝜕
𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑖 : Area ratio of land cover

Qi: Net radiation
a1, a2, a3: Coefficient determined by land cover type.
t: hour

icshge.org
TABLE II
PARAMETERS OF LAND COVER TO ESTIMATE NET RADIATION
Land cover type a1 a2 a3 Sources
Green 0.34 0.31 -31

Grimmond & Oke (1999)
Building 0.07 0.06 -5
Impervious 0.83 0.4 -54.2 Mean value of research results of Doll et al. (1985) and Asaeda & Ca (1993)
Water 0.5 0.21 -39.1 Souch et al. (1998)
Road 0.61 0.41 -27.7 Mean value of research results of Narita et al. (1984) and Asaeda & Ca (1993)
Next, applying LPDM, the climate phenomena including air-temperature, wind direction, and wind speed of the model
area is predicted based on sensible heat flux which is calculated by HSTM. The entire model process was coded by FORTRAN
and was included in the UTEMP system as sub functions.
B. The case study

The usefulness of the UTEMP system was verified by applying it to the Seogyo-dong area where the heat island
phenomenon occurs frequently in Seoul. As presented in the research results by Lee & Oh (2018), this area has spatial
characteristics that are likely to occur frequently in the heat island phenomenon among the urban climate zones in Seoul. In
order to verify the UTEMP system’s usefulness as a mathematical climate simulation model that integrates meso-scale and
micro-scale characteristics, a district scale area (0.8km2) with mixed commercial and residential areas, and human activity
(which is very active due to the nearby subway station) is investigated. In addition, in order to consider the boundary effect,
the modeling area in the simulation is set to a much bigger area (3.5km× 2.5km, 8.75km2) shown as the entire air photomap in
Figure 2.
Figure 2. The case study area.
In order to verify the usefulness of the UTEMP system for the improvement of the urban thermal environment in urban
planning and design, the case study consisted of, 1) preparing and pre-processing variables to mathematical climate modeling,
2) verifying accuracy of modeling results, and 3) identifying air temperature variations according to urban spatial changes
(Figure 3).

icshge.org
Figure 3. The flow of the case study.
1) Preparing and pre-processing variables for mathematical climate modeling

In order to analyze the thermal environment of the urban space, climate information, land cover, terrain, location and
shape information of buildings are essential. The national standard DBs including climate information and spatial information
provided by a Korea portal DB website were inputted as elementary DB of the UTEMP system, and they were pre-processed
for mathematical climate modeling. Table 3 shows the elementary DBs applied to the UTEMP system. In addition, Figure 4
shows the results of converting the building information of the vector format into the ASCII format for climate modeling.
TABLE III
INPUT VARIABLES OF UTEMP SYSTEM TO URBAN THERMAL ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS
Spatial/time
Input data Usages Sources
resolution
Wind direction, wind speed, air
Climate Korea Meteorological
temperature, coldness, relative Meteorological field creation Hour
information Administration
humidity, precipitation
Heat balance estimation Ministry of Environment,
Land cover 1:25,000
(Sensible heat flux, net radiation) Korea
Ministry of Land,
Spatial DEM Wind flow analysis 10m×10m Infrastructure and Transport,
information Korea
Climate modeling analysis Ministry of Land,
Building information considering complex urban 1:1,000 Infrastructure and Transport,
structures Korea
Figure 4. The pre-processed results of building information (Vector to ASCII).

icshge.org
2) Accuracy verification of climate model results

This study simulated climate phenomena for 36 hours from 07:00 on June 9, 2015 to 06:00 on June 11, 2015, which had
relatively low cloud cover and low average wind speed in summer. To create a meteorological field, climate information
including wind speed, wind direction, air-temperature, relative humidity, and cloudiness near AWS was inputted. The
simulated results were obtained with a spatial resolution of 30m×30m in a one-hour unit. The accuracy of the modeling results
was verified by confirming the adj. R2 and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) with observed data of the four AWSs in the case
study area.
3) Application of the UTEMP system

In order to identify the applicability of the UTEMP system as a tool for improving the thermal environment, three
scenarios were established and variations of air-temperature due to urban spatial changes were investigated (Table 4 and Figure
5). The first scenario is an existing condition in which no urban space change has occurred. There are a total of 1,700 buildings
in the case study area, and the average building to coverage ratio (BCR) and floor area ratio (FAR) are 41.3% and 258.8%,
respectively.
The second scenario is applying maximum green roofs to existing condition (scenario 1) which are adopted around the
world to improve the thermal environment. The applicability of green roofs could be determined by the roof shape and the age
of the buildings (Kim, Oh & Lee, 2018). Therefore, green roofs were applied only to buildings that satisfy both of two
conditions, namely the shape of the roof is flat and the age of the building is less than 30 years. The applicable green roof areas
were identified by the function of heat reduction infrastructures introduction included in the UTEMP system. From the results,
green roofs were found to be applicable on 1,096 buildings (64%) among the 1,700 buildings. The total green roofs area is
99,467m2.
As a virtual urban development situation, the third scenario assumes that the individual buildings are developed with a
maximum development density according to urban planning and architectural regulations. In other words, scenario 3 is a
condition in which the urban thermal environment is likely to deteriorate to the maximum by urban development. Such a
maximum development condition was analyzed by applying the function of maximum development density simulation
included in the UTEMP system. From the simulation results, it was found that the average BCR and FAR in the case study
area could be increased by 54.8% (about 13.5%) and 412% (about 153.2%), respectively.
TABLE IV
THE URBAN SPATIAL CHANGE SCENARIOS
Building (BCR1), FAR2)) Heat mitigation measures (applied area)
Scenario 1 Existing condition (41.3%, 258.8%) None

Applying green roofs (99,467m2) to existing
Scenario 2 Existing condition (41.3%, 258.8%)
condition (scenario 1)
Maximum development under urban planning
Scenario 3 None
law (54.8%, 412.0%)
1) BCR: Building to coverage ratio
2) FAR: Floor area ratio
Figure 5. The urban spatial change scenarios.

icshge.org
III. RESULTS
A. Accuracy verification of simulated air-temperature
Figure 6 shows the distribution of simulated air temperature at 10am, 4am, 8am, 12am, 4pm, and 8pm on June 10, 2015.
The average temperature of the case study area is 27.37 ℃ and the range is from 22.05 to 33.05 ℃. As the Han River located
in the southern part of the study area, the air temperature of the southern part is relatively lower than that of other areas. On
the other hand, it was found that the air temperature of the central parts in the case study area where it is considerably urbanized
and impervious wide roads are located, is relatively high.
As a result of comparing simulated air temperature and observed air temperature by four AWSs, Adj. R2 ranged from
0.923 to 0.978 with a mean of 0.952 and RMSE ranged from ± 0.75 ℃ - to ±1.26 ℃ with a mean of ±0.915(Figure 7 and
Table5). These simulated errors are similar to those of Yang & Bou-Zeid (2018), Samsonov, Konstantinov & Varentsov (2015)
and He et al. (2015). Therefore, this study confirmed the results of the simulated air-temperature by the UTEMP system which
simulated real conditions with a high accuracy.
Figure 6. Air temperature analysis results by the UTEMP system (12am, 4am, 8am, 12pm, 4pm, 8pm, June 10, 2015).
Figure 7. Comparison of air temperature between simulated results and observed data (AWSs).

icshge.org
TABLE V
THE ACCURACY VERIFICATION RESULTS OF THE UTEMP SYSTEM
AWS 1 AWS 2 AWS 3 AWS 4 Mean

Adj. R2 0.941 0.966 0.923 0.978 0.952
RMSE ±1.00 ±0.75 ±1.15 ±0.76 ±0.91
B. Identifying air temperature variations according to urban spatial changes

As a result of analyzing the variations of air temperature due to urban spatial changes, the air temperature of scenario 1
(existing condition) ranged from 18.57 to 37.03℃ with an average temperature of 25.82℃, and scenario 2 (applying green
roofs) ranged from 18.62 ° C to 36.69 °C with an average temperature of 25.77 °C. In case of Scenario 3 (maximum
development), air temperature was distributed from 19.04℃ to 38.05℃ with an average temperature of 26.24℃ (Figure 7).
When the maximum green roofs were introduced in the study area, the average temperature decreased by 0.07℃ and the
maximum temperature reduction effect was the highest at 11:00 am with 0.45℃. Such an air temperature reduction effects due
to green roofs application is similar with the other research results of Gromke et al. (2015), Wang, Berardi & Akbari (2016),
Kim and Oh (2018), and Ng et al. (2012). On the other hand, if the individual buildings in the study are developed to the
maximum density, the difference of the average temperature is estimated to increase by about 0.35°C. Such air temperature
difference is highest at 4:00 pm with 1.27°C.
Through scenario analyses, this study investigated air temperature variations according to urban spatial changes. The case
study results suggest that to improve the thermal environment of the study area, additional urban development should be strictly
controlled and green roofs should be expanded as much as possible.
Figure 8. Comparison of simulated air temperature on each scenario (24hours); Left: Air temperature ranges of Scenario 1 and Scenario 2; Right: Air
temperature ranges of Scenario 1 and Scenario 3.
Figure 9. Comparison of simulated air temperature between Scenario 1 (left) and Scenario 2 (right) (at 11am).

icshge.org
Figure 10. Comparison of simulated air temperature between Scenario 1 (left) and Scenario 3 (right) (at 11am).
IV. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

As a result of applying the UTEMP system to the area where the heat island phenomenon occurs frequently in the city of
Seoul, it was found that the air temperature simulation results were fairly similar to real observations. In addition, this study
identified air temperature variations according to characteristics of urban spatial changes.
Based on the case study results, the UTEMP system was found to have the following usefulness: First, the UTEMP system
showed a simulation error RMSE ± 0.91, so it can be useful for urban meteorological analysis. Previous mathematical model
including the urban canopy model or meso-scale model assumed an urban area has a similar homogeneous array of buildings
or an urban canopy layer that has roughness. The thermal environment analysis engine of the UTEMP system considers urban
structure to be a morphological type on the district scale-level (between meso-scale and micro-scale), so it reflects urban spatial
characteristic more concretely.
Secondly, the UTEMP system enables analyzing of differentiated results of air temperature both for the change of the
land cover type such as rooftop greening, and the change of microscopic urban space such as the location and the shape of the
building. The result of this temperature analysis suggests that it can be used as a scientific planning tool which considers
thermal environment improvement of urban planning and design.
Third, by combining a GIS engine and thermal environment analysis engine, the UTEMP system developed in this study
makes it easier for non-expert users related to the climate field to analyze urban meteorological phenomena. Unlike previously
developed climate modeling tools, GIS files which are mainly used in the urban planning and design field, can be directly
inputted to the system without tedious pre-processing, and such an abbreviated process enables the climate analysis to be more
efficient. Such characteristics of this system have the advantage of instantly reflecting the changed alternatives by the urban
planning and designing process to the modeling and confirms the results.
On the other hand, the further research is needed to expand the usefulness of system. For instance, first, more in-depth
verification is needed by applying the UTEMP system to diverse urban spaces with different characteristics. In addition to
rooftop greening, it is necessary to investigate the effects of other heat reduction measures (wind corridor creation, cool roofs
and pavement, etc.), which have recently been attracting attention as countermeasures to reduce urban heat islands. Finally, if
the applicability of UTEMP is verified in both the micro and macro-scale urban areas, the utilization of the system will be
further increased.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This research was supported by a grant (18ADUP-B102560-04) from the Architecture & Urban Development Research
Program (AUDP) funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of the Korean government.
REFERENCES
Asaeda, T. & Ca, V.T. 1993, 'The subsurface transport of heat and moisture and its effect on the environment: A numerical model', Boundary-Layer
Meteorology, vol. 65, no. 1, pp. 159-79.
Chen, F., Kusaka, H., Bornstein, R., Ching, J., Grimmond, C.S.B., Grossman-Clarke, S., Loridan, T., Manning, K.W., Martilli, A., Miao, S., Sailor, D.,
Salamanca, F.P., Taha, H., Tewari, M., Wang, X., Wyszogrodzki, A.A. & Zhang, C. 2011, 'The integrated WRF/urban modelling system:
development, evaluation, and applications to urban environmental problems', International Journal of Climatology, vol. 31, no. 2, pp. 273-88.
Doll, D., Ching, J.K.S. & Kaneshiro, J. 1985, 'Parameterization of subsurface heating for soil and concrete using net radiation data', Boundary-Layer
Dudhia, J. & Bresch, J.F. 2002, 'A Global Version of the PSU–NCAR Mesoscale Model', Monthly Weather Review, vol. 130, no. 12, pp. 2989-3007.
Grimm, N.B., Faeth, S.H., Golubiewski, N.E., Redman, C.L., Wu, J., Bai, X. & Briggs, J.M. 2008, 'Global Change and the Ecology of Cities', Science, vol.
319, no. 5864, pp. 756-60.
Grimmond, C.S.B. & Oke, T.R. 1999, 'Heat Storage in Urban Areas: Local-Scale Observations and Evaluation of a Simple Model', Journal of Applied

icshge.org
Gromke, C., Blocken, B., Janssen, W., Merema, B., van Hooff, T. & Timmermans, H. 2015, 'CFD analysis of transpirational cooling by vegetation: Case
study for specific meteorological conditions during a heat wave in Arnhem, Netherlands', Building and Environment, vol. 83, pp. 11-26.
He, X., Shen, S., Miao, S., Dou, J. & Zhang, Y. 2015, 'Quantitative detection of urban climate resources and the establishment of an urban climate map
(UCMap) system in Beijing', Building and Environment, vol. 92, pp. 668-78.
Kim, H., Oh, K. & Lee, S. 2018, 'The Effects of Green and Cool Roofs on Temperature Reduction in Seoul using a Mesoscale Meteorological Model
(WRF-ARW)', Seoul Studies, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 39-57.
Lee, D. & Oh, K. 2018, 'Classifying urban climate zones (UCZs) based on statistical analyses', Urban Climate, vol. 24, pp. 503-16.
Mirzaei, P.A. & Haghighat, F. 2010, 'Approaches to study Urban Heat Island – Abilities and limitations', Building and Environment, vol. 45, no. 10, pp.
2192-201.
Ng, E., Chen, L., Wang, Y. & Yuan, C. 2012, 'A study on the cooling effects of greening in a high-density city: An experience from Hong Kong', Building
and Environment, vol. 47, pp. 256-71.
Nunez, M. & Oke, T.R. 1977, 'The Energy Balance of an Urban Canyon', Journal of Applied Meteorology, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 11-9.
Ren, C., Ng, E.Y.-y. & Katzschner, L. 2011, 'Urban climatic map studies: a review', International Journal of Climatology, vol. 31, no. 15, pp. 2213-33.
Samsonov, T.E., Konstantinov, P.I. & Varentsov, M.I. 2015, 'Object-oriented approach to urban canyon analysis and its applications in meteorological
modeling', Urban Climate, vol. 13, pp. 122-39.
Sarrat, C., Lemonsu, A., Masson, V. & Guedalia, D. 2006, 'Impact of urban heat island on regional atmospheric pollution', Atmospheric Environment, vol.
40, no. 10, pp. 1743-58.
Seto, K.C., Güneralp, B. & Hutyra, L.R. 2012, 'Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools',
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 109, no. 40, pp. 16083-8.
Shuzo, M. 2006, 'Environmental design of outdoor climate based on CFD', Fluid Dynamics Research, vol. 38, no. 2-3, p. 108.
Wang, Y., Berardi, U. & Akbari, H. 2016, 'Comparing the effects of urban heat island mitigation strategies for Toronto, Canada', Energy and Buildings, vol.
114, pp. 2-19.
Yang, J. & Bou-Zeid, E. 2018, 'Should Cities Embrace Their Heat Islands as Shields from Extreme Cold?', Journal of Applied Meteorology and
Climatology, vol. 57, no. 6, pp. 1309-20.

icshge.org
Comparison of land-use change models for Mae Sot special economic

zone in Tak province
Chavanavesskul, S.
Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Srinakharinwirot University, Bangkok, Thailand;
such2305@gmail.com
Abstract—The development of special economic zone, Mae Sot, Tak province is a gateway connecting Thailand economy
through Myawaddy city, Karen state, Myanmar with Mawlamyine, Yangon, Myanmar, India, and the south of China. The
government remarkably supports several basic infrastructure projects, such as Tanaosri - Kawkareik road construction at
section 2-3 of Motorway number 12, Thai-Myanmar Friendship bridge II construction, Mae Sot airport expansion and
development, and public sectors collaboration in constructing mega department stores, for example, Robinson, Makro, Tesco,
Boutique hotels, Medium-size resorts, and Condominiums. These investments have never appeared in Tak province before.
For this reason, these land-use changes may affect some factors influencing the environment of Mae Sot district, Tak province.
This research aims to study land-use changes and predict the land-use changes in the next 20 years by using the CA-Markov
model comparing with Land Change Modeler (LCM). The study area is Mae Sot special economic zone covers 128 square
kilometres. As a result, the built-up areas have increased, while the forestry and agricultural areas have decreased continuously
in the last 30 years (from 1988-2017). It is found that the constructions have expanded along the main road, in particular, the
road connected between Mae Sot, Tak and Myawaddy, Myanmar. The construction areas have increased by 23.77%. In
contrast, the forestry and agricultural areas in Myawaddy, Myanmar have decreased by 21.61% and 4.52% respectively.
Furthermore, the results of the land-use change prediction from the CA-Markov model and LCM do not show any difference
from the previous changes. Generally, the forestry areas and water bodies have changed to be agricultural areas, and community
areas, as well as, the agricultural areas have changed to the community areas. It can be concluded that the results from those
two models present the difference in term of the size of each land-use type, which is less than 1 square kilometres.
Keywords—urbanisation, land-use change monitoring model, Mae Sot special economic zone
I. INTRODUCTION
T HIS research aims to study the changes in land use and to forecast the land use changes by using land-use monitoring
model and compare the CA-Markov model with the Land Chang Modeler in the special economic zone, Mae Sot, Tak
province.
A. Literature Review
1) Special Economic Zone
Special Economic Zone is an area with special laws for the benefit of promoting, facilitating, and providing some
privileges in industrial, commercial, and service activities in Thailand. As an economic hub, this zone has been promoted for
investment, export to reduce operating cost, advanced technology to produce domestic products, and employment in Thailand.
Special economic zones often focus on industries that require large numbers of workers. (Government House, 2014;
International Institute for Trade and Development, 2014; Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board,
2015). It is clearly shown that preparing for a special economic zone always affects the urbanisation of that area.
2) Urbanisation process
Urbanisation is a process of changes both spatially and socially. It is a change from rural society to urban society regarding
spatial and social factors, such as expansion and improvement of transportation, expansion of workplaces and mobility of
labour, and expansion of housing and utilities. Government policy, economic development, size of the city, the number of
residents, and the urban fringe are the complex holistic-relationships showing the acceptance of changes (Krit, 1993; Daranee,
1996). Urbanisation can trace with land use change model (Chudech, 2017).
II. LAND USE CHANGE MODEL

Land-use monitoring models have been developed consequently by development planners over the past 20 years.
Currently, there are many land-use monitoring models used in studying the land-use phenomena, predict the tendency of
changes from potentially physical-economic-social factors and predict the urbanisation or special economic zone, which is
designated as a development area for economic development. In this study, the CA-Markov Model and Land Change Modeler
(LCM) was selected to study the changes, to predict the land use, and to compare these models.
A. Cellular Automata Markov model (CA-Markov model)
CA-Markov Model is a model that analyses the land-use changes spatially temporally based on Markov Model and CA
(Cellular Automata). The CA-Markov Model can be used to analyse several kinds of land-use variables and patterns. This
model is suitable for monitoring the land-use and land-cover changes due to the applicability in creating raster model. It
requires only two temporal data to create the probability of changes in metric form to predict the land-use changes in the future,
as:

icshge.org
Future land-use = Vj x Pjk

𝑃𝑃1,1 𝑃𝑃1,2 … 𝑃𝑃1,𝑚𝑚…
= [V1, V2, V3,…Vm]2 x � 𝑃𝑃2,1 𝑃𝑃2,2 … 𝑃𝑃2,𝑚𝑚… �
𝑃𝑃𝑚𝑚,1 𝑃𝑃𝑚𝑚,2 … 𝑃𝑃𝑚𝑚,𝑚𝑚…
= [V1, V2, V3,…Vm]3
Where Vj is the annual years of land use, Pjk is the probability of changing at the time j and k.
However, human decision making is another factor regardless of the CA-Markov Model. Furthermore, the rules of change are
often determined at the local scale )Hyandye and Martz (2017), Kumar, Radhakrishnan, and Mathew (2014), Chudech (2017)).
B. Land Change Modeler (LCM)
Land Change Modeler is a Hybrid Model developed to optimise the efficiency of land use simulation based on two
temporal land-use data comparison with a simulation and probability of each land-use type. Apart from physical and temporal
factors, it is applicable with the determination of demographic factors and social factors derived from human decision makings,
such as government policy, development plan of the private sector, and community. Generally, population and social factors
are interrelated and often affecting the land-use changes. In term of the analysis result, it is performed in the probability matric
of each land-use type. The LCM analyses the relationships by using Cramer’s V, where the Cramer’s V value is greater than
0.15, which shows that the factors have influenced the change. Moreover, the LCM typically uses MLP (Multi-Layer
Perceptron) to create the potential areas of each type of the land-use change in the future )Clarks Labs (2013), Nadnicha,
Onanong, Kasem, and Surachai (2016)).
Therefore, the determined Mae Sot Special Economic Zone, Tak Province by the Government definitely causes the
urbanisation and land-use changes in the present and future.
III. STUDY PROCESSES

1. Explore Mae Sot Special Economic Zone, Tak Province (Figure 1). This study area covers 128 km2 in Tambon Mae
Sot, and some parts of Mah Pa, Tambon Tha Sai Luad, Tambon Mae Taw, Tambon Phra That Pha Daeng, Amphoe Tak,
including the connected area between Mae Sot border and Myawaddy, Myanmar (Sutatip, 2018).
Figure 1. Study area.
2. Prepare Landsat 5 satellite images. These images were adjusted the spectral and geometric correction in order to reduce
the ambiguity of images from atmospheric distortion and wrong signal. These images were rectified, in corresponding with
the geographical coordinate system and enhanced the quality of data to sharpen the distinction of objects on the images. The
land-use classification is categorised into five classes, 1) Forest area 2) Agricultural area 3) Community area 4) Water source
and 5) Miscellaneous areas. Six field surveys validated each land-use class, therefore, the total number of the validation
regarding all classified land-use types was 30 field surveys with averagely 80% accuracy. The most accurate data is the
agriculture and community area (100% accuracy), while the most impoverished data is the forest area (50% accuracy).

icshge.org
TABLE I
ACCURACY OF FIELD SURVEYS REGARDING THE CLASSIFIED LAND-USE TYPES
Survey Points (2017)
Land use
Forest areas Agriculture areas Community areas Water areas Miscellaneous areas Total
Forest areas 3 - - - - 3
Agriculture areas 2 6 - 1 2 11
Community areas 1 - 6 - - 7
Water areas - - - 5 - 5
Miscellaneous areas - - - - 4 4
Total 6 6 6 6 6 30
Correspond 3 6 6 5 4
% of accuracy 50 100 100 83.33 66.67 80
3. The temporal land-use data were selected in 1988, 1998, 2008, and 2018. Almost all temporal data were defined before
the declaration of Mae Sot Special Economic Zone (SEZ), Tak Province, but 2018. The predictions of land-use change duration
were made in every ten years, as in 2027 and 2037 by using land-use monitoring models, CA-Markov model and Land Change
Modeler (LCM).
IV. RESULTS
A. The land-use changes
It is clearly shown that the land use in Mae Sot SEZ, Tak Province has changed every ten years over the last 30 years
(1988 to 2018). The agricultural and forestry areas have decreased continuously, contrast with the increase of community
areas, water areas, and miscellaneous areas. For instance, the community areas have increased by 9.12% each year. The water
areas have increased by 2.35% each year. As same as, the miscellaneous lands have increased by 2.63% each year. In contrast,
the forestry areas have declined 3.01% each year. The agricultural areas have decreased by 0.24% each year. The urbanisation
has expanded and rapidly grown since October 2010 due to the development policy of Mae Sot SEZ. The expansion directions
of the old communities to the new communities appear along the major and minor transportation lines, in particular, the Thai-
Myanmar Friendship Bridge (Table 2 Figure 2).
TABLE II
LAND-USE OF MAE SOT SEZ FROM 1988 TO 2018
Mae Sot SEZ, Tak Province (Area: Km2)
Land-use Yearly
Changes from
1988 1998 2008 2018 change
1988-2018
rates (%)
Forestry areas 30.70 21.04 7.07 3.02 (-)27.68
(-)3.01
(23.98%) (16.43%) (5.52%) (2.36%) (-21.63%)
Agricultural areas1 82.19 85.12 86.48 76.39 (-)5.8

(-)0.24
(64.21%) (66.50%) (67.56%) (59.68%) (-4.53%)
Community areas2 11.12 17.13 28.67 41.55 30.43

9.12
(8.69%) (13.38%) (22.40%) (32.46%) (23.77%)
Water areas 1.16 1.38 1.95 1.97 0.82

2.35
(0.90%) (1.08%) (1.53%) (1.54%) (0.64%)
Miscellaneous areas3 2.83 3.33 3.83 5.06 2.24

2.63
(2.21%) (2.60%) (2.99%) (3.96%) (1.75%)
128.00 128.00 128.00 128.00

Total
(100.00%) (100.00%) (100.00%) (100.00%)
Source: Analysed from Landsat5 images; Note: Thai-Myanmar Friendship Bridge; 1 Agricultural areas: Paddy fields, perennials, fruit orchards
and horticultural crops; 2 Community areas: Towns and commercial areas, residences, transportation stations, other buildings and golf courses; 3
Miscellaneous areas: Meadows and woodlands, marsh and water areas, mines, ponds and miscellaneous areas.

icshge.org
1988 1998 2008 2018

Figure 2. Land-use map of Mae Sot SEZ, Tak Province from 1988 to 2018. Source: Analysed from Landsat 5 images.
B. Land-use change prediction by CA-Markov model comparing with Land Change Modeler (LCM).
1) Land-use prediction by CA-Markov model
Predicting land-use in 2027 and 2037 was based on land-use data in 2008 and 2018 by using the CA-Markov model. The
result contains 82.76% accuracy. In 2027, the results of the analysis are the proportion of changes (Table 3) and the probability
of changes (Table 4) from the CA-Markov model.
TABLE III
THE PROPORTION OF LAND-USE CHANGES IN 2027 FROM THE CA-MARKOV MODEL
Proportion of land-use changes in 2027
Forestry areas Agricultural areas Community areas Water areas Miscellaneous areas
Forestry areas 0.9693 0.6957 0.3951 - 0.936
Agricultural areas - 64.026 10.5498 0.0972 1.7343
Community areas - - 41.544 0.0054 -
Water areas - 0.0396 0.0243 1.8369 0.0594
Miscellaneous areas - 1.6137 2.0043 0.0531 1.377
TABLE IV
PROBABILITY OF LAND-USE CHANGES IN 2027 FROM CA-MARKOV MODEL
Probability of Land-use changes in 2027
Forestry areas 0.3237 0.2323 0.1318 - 0.3123
Water areas - 0.0200 0.0124 0.9374 0.0302
In 2037, the results of the analysis are the proportion of changes (Table 5) and the probability of changes (Table 6) from
CA-Markov model.
TABLE V
PROPORTION OF LAND-USE CHANGES IN 2037 FROM CA-MARKOV MODEL
Proportion of Land-use changes in 2037
Forestry areas 0.1404 1.6893 0.8406 0.0135 0.3123
Agricultural areas 0.135 56.6901 17.3871 0.5742 1.6209
Community areas - - 41.5494 - -

icshge.org
Water areas - 0.0468 0.0279 1.8054 0.0783
Miscellaneous areas 0.0018 2.3202 2.0448 0.0630 0.6183
TABLE VI
PROBABILITY OF LAND-USE CHANGES IN 2037 FROM CA-MARKOV MODEL
Probability of Land-use changes in 2037
Forestry areas 0.0468 0.5637 0.2807 0.0044 0.1043
Water areas - 0.0241 0.0141 0.9216 0.0402
Therefore, it is found that the major areas of Mae Sot SEZ, Tak Province are the agricultural land (51.93%), followed by
the community area (42.59%), miscellaneous areas (3.21%), water body (1.51%) and forest area (0.76%) respectively in 2027.
In 2037, it is found that the major areas of Mae Sot SEZ, Tak province area the community area (48.34%), followed by
agricultural land (47.49%), miscellaneous areas (2.03%), water body (1.92%) and forest area (0.22%) respectively. The highest
increasing proportion is the water body, which has increased 1.37% per year, followed by the community area, which has
increased by 0.67% per year, while the forest area has decreased by 3.54% per year, followed by miscellaneous areas, which
have decreased by 1.84% per year, and the agricultural area, which has decreased by 0.43% per year. Remarkably, the
communities will continually expand along the main transportation routes and around Thai-Myanmar Friendship Bridge (Table
7 and Figure 3).
TABLE VII
LAND-USE OF MAE SOT SEZ FROM 2027 TO 2037 BY CA-MARKOV MODEL
Land-use
2027 2037 Changes from 1988-2018 Yearly change rates (%)
Forestry areas 0.97 0.28 (-)0.69

(-)3.54
(0.76%) (0.22%) (-0.54%)
Agricultural areas1 66.47 60.79 (-)5.66

(-)0.43
(51.93%) (47.49%) (-4.44%)
Community areas2 54.52 61.87 7.35

0.67
(42.59%) (48.34%) (5.74%)
Water areas 1.93 2.46 0.53

1.37
(1.51%) (1.92%) (0.41%)
Miscellaneous areas3 4.11 2.60 (-)1.51

(-)1.84
(3.21%) (2.03%) (-1.18%)
128.00 128.00
Total
(100.00%) (100.00%)
Source: Analysed from CA-Markov model; Note: Thai-Myanmar Friendship Bridge; 1 Agricultural areas: Paddy fields, perennials, fruit orchards
and horticultural crops; 2 Community areas: Towns and commercial areas, residences, transportation stations, other buildings and golf courses;
3
Miscellaneous areas: Meadows and woodlands, marsh and water areas, mines, ponds and miscellaneous areas.

icshge.org
2027 2037
Figure 3. Land-use map of Mae Sot SEZ, Tak Province from 2027 to 2037.
Source: Analysed from CA-Markov model
2) Land-use prediction by Land Change Modeler (LCM)

The prediction of land-use changes in 2027 and 2037 was made based on the land-use data in 2008 and 2018. It also
considers physical factors, such as DEM, slope, aspect, village distance, road distance, stream distance, and social factors,
such as Government policy and population density. The analysis results of the Land Change Modeler contain 83.91% accuracy
averagely. In 2027, the results of the analysis are the proportion of change (Table 8) and the probability of the change (Table
9) from LCM.
TABLE VIII
PROPORTION OF LAND-USE CHANGES IN 2027 FROM LCM
Forestry areas 0.9702 0.6957 0.3951 - 0.936

Community areas - - 41.5449 0.0045 -
Water areas - 0.0396 0.0243 1.8369 0.0594
TABLE IX
PROBABILITY OF LAND-USE CHANGES IN 2027 FROM LCM
Probability of land-use changes in 2027
Forestry areas 0.3237 0.2323 0.1318 - 0.3123
Water areas - 0.0200 0.0124 0.9374 0.0302
In 2037, the results of the analysis are the proportion of change (Table 10) and the probability of the change (Table 11)
from LCM.

icshge.org
TABLE X
PROPORTION OF LAND-USE CHANGES IN 2037 FROM LCM
Forestry areas 0.1404 1.6893 0.8406 0.0135 0.3123

Water areas - 0.0468 0.0279 1.8054 0.0792
TABLE XI
PROBABILITY OF LAND-USE CHANGES IN 2037 FROM LCM
Probability of land-use changes in 2037
Forestry areas 0.0468 0.5637 0.2807 0.0044 0.1043
Water areas - 0.0241 0.0141 0.9216 0.0402
Therefore, it is found that the major areas of Mae Sot SEZ, Tak Province are the agricultural area (51.88%), followed by
the community area (42.59%), miscellaneous areas (3.21%), water body (1.56%) and forest area (0.76%) respectively in 2027.
In 2037, the major areas of Mae Sot SEZ are the agricultural area (48.32%), followed by the miscellaneous areas (2.06%),
water body (1.92%) and forest area (0.22%) respectively. The highest proportion of increasing area is the water body, which
has increased 1.16% per year, followed by the community area, which has increased by 0.67% per year, whereas the forest
area has decreased by 3.57% per year, followed by miscellaneous areas, which has decreased by 1.80% per year, and the
agricultural area, which has decreased by 0.42% per year. The expansion of the communities will continually expand along
the main transportation routes and around Thai-Myanmar Friendship Bridge (Table 12 and Figure 4).
TABLE XII
LAND-USE OF MAE SOT SEZ FROM 2027 TO 2037 BY LCM
Mae Sot SEZ, Tak Province (Area : Km2)
Land-use
2027 2037 Changes from 1988-2018 Yearly change rates (%)
Forestry areas 0.97 0.28 (-)0.69
(-)3.57
(0.76%) (0.22%) (-0.54%)
Agricultural areas1 66.41 60.78 (-)5.63

(-)0.42
(51.88%) (47.48%) (-4.40%)
Community areas2 54.52 61.85 7.33

0.67
(42.59%) (48.32%) (5.73%)
Water areas 1.99 2.46 0.46

1.16
(1.56%) (1.92%) (0.36%)
Miscellaneous areas3 4.11 2.63 (-)1.48

(-)1.80
(3.21%) (2.06%) (-1.15%)
128.00 128.00
Total
(100.00%) (100.00%)
Source: Analysed from LCM; Note: Thai-Myanmar Friendship Bridge; 1 Agricultural areas: Paddy fields, perennials, fruit orchards and horticultural
crops; 2 Community areas: Towns and commercial areas, residences, transportation stations, other buildings and golf courses; 3 Miscellaneous areas:
Meadows and woodlands, marsh and water areas, mines, ponds and miscellaneous areas.

icshge.org
2027 2037
Figure 4. Land-use map of Mae Sot SEZ, Tak Province from 2027 to 2037. Source: Analysed from LCM
C. Comparison of the CA-Markov model and Land Change Modeler (LCM).

Regarding the prediction of land-use changes in 2027 and 2037 by using the CA-Markov model and the LCM based on
the analysis results in 1988 and 1998, it is found that the tendency and direction of land-use changes of those two forecasting
years are the same. Generally, the forest area and water body will be changed to the agricultural area and community area.
Extraordinarily, those models, CA-Markov model and LCM, show the differentiation of spatial data of each land-use type less
than one km2. It is found that the spatial differentiation of both two models in 2027 is higher than those in 2037. Considering
those models, the agricultural area and water body differ around 0.06 km2 in 2027. In contrast, those models show greater
differentiation in the agricultural area, community area, and miscellaneous areas in 2037 (Table 13).
TABLE XIII
COMPARING LAND-USE CHANGES BETWEEN THE CA-MARKOV MODEL AND LCM
Diff.
Land-use CA-Markov LCM
(CA-Markov-LCM)
2027 2038 2027 2038 2027 2037
Forestry areas 0.97 0.28 0.97 0.28 - -

(0.76%) (0.22%) (0.76%) (0.22%)
Agricultural areas1
66.47 60.79 66.41 60.78 0.06 0.01
(51.93%) (47.49%) (51.88%) (47.48%) (0.05%) (0.01%)
Community areas2 54.52 61.87 54.52 61.85 - 0.02
(42.59%) (48.34%) (42.59%) (48.32%) - (0.02%)
Water areas 1.93 2.46 1.99 2.46 0.06 -

(1.51%) (1.92%) (1.56%) (1.92%) (0.05%)
Miscellaneous areas 3
4.11 2.60 4.11 2.63 - 0.03
(3.21%) (2.03%) (3.21%) (2.06%) (0.03%)
Total 128.00 128.00 128.00 128.00
(100.00%) (100.00%) (100.00%) (100.00%)
V. CONCLUSION
It is confirmed that it is not different to use either the CA-Markov model or Land Change Modeler (LCM) to predict the
land-use changes in Mae Sot SEZ, Tak province. It is also found that,
1. The accuracy of those two models is pretty high, the CA-Markov model provides 82.76% accuracy, and the LCM
provides 83.91% accuracy.
2. Although two social factors have been added to the analysis, the LCM still shows the similar results as the CA-Markov
model. Likewise, the size of analysed areas from those two models is not different. It might be the limited size of the study
area, where is rather small so that the classes of land-use are not classified finely.
3. The addition of social factors in the LCM model is not sufficient to clearly distinguish spatial variations in the study

icshge.org
area.
Therefore, the potential factors influencing the land-use changes would be considered adding into the models, for
example, disaster risk factors, Government policy, economic factors. Alternatively, a more extensive study area and finer land-
use classes would be recommended in the future study.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The research received support from the grant of Srinakharinwirot University, Bangkok, Thailand. Researchers would like to
convey this gratitude to the university for this research funding.
REFERENCES
Chudech Losiri. (2017). Land Use Change Model and Urban Area Prediction in the Future. Journal of Social Sciences, 19, 340-357.
Clark Labs. (2013) IDRISI Spotlight: The Land Change Modeler. Massachusetts, Clark University.
Daranee Tawilpipatkul. (1996) The process of urbanisation and social change. Bangkok, Chulalongkorn University.
Government House. (2014) Results of the Special Economic Development Board (NRP) meeting. [Online] Available from: http://www.thaigov.go.th.
[Accessed 1st June 2017].
Hyandye C. and Martz, L. (2017) A Markovian and cellular automata land-use change predictive model of the Usangu Catchment. International Journal of
Remote Sensing. [Online] 38 (1), 64-81. Available from: doi:10.1080/01431161.20016.1259675 [Accessed 1st June 2017].
International Institute for Trade and Development. (2014) Guidelines and Measures for the Development of Special Economic Zones in Thai border. Policy
briefs on research projects. Bangkok.
Kumar, S., Radhakrishnan, N., and Mathew, S. (2014) Land use change modelling using a Markov model and remote sensing. Geomatics, Natural Hazards
and Risk, [Online] 5 (2), 145-156. Available from: doi: 10.1080/19475705.2013.795502 [Accessed 1st June 2017].
Nadnicha P., Onanong P., Kasem C., and Surachai R. (2016) The Effect of Land Use Changes on Landslide in the High Slope Area at Surat Thani Province.
KKU Science Journal, 44 (1), 212-221
Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board. (2015) Development of Special Economic Zones in Thailand. [Online] Available from:
http://www.nesdb.go.th. [Accessed 1st June 2017].
Sutatip Chavanavesskul. (2018) The Impact of Mae Sot’s Special Economic Zone on Climate Change (abstract). 2018 Asia Global Land Programme
Conference: Transitioning to Sustainable Development of Land Systems through Teleconnections and Telecoupling. On September 3-5, 2018.
Taiwan, Taipei

icshge.org
Chapter 2.

icshge.org
Urban area and population change in a new autonomous city in

Indonesia: Evidence Banjar Municipality
Supriyadi, A.,1 Wang, T.,1 Chu, S.,1 Ma, T.,1 and Shaumirahman, R.G.2
1
School of Geographic Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China
2
Urban regional and planning, Engineering Faculty, Pasundan University, Bandung, Indonesia
Abstract—The resume of the Habitat III Conference of cities on 20 October 2016 had emphasized the increasing of an urban
population where concentrated in the cities, hence many studies were conduct in a big city or metropolitan city and very limited
research in a new autonomous city. This paper was conduct to release the evidence about land use and population density
change in a new autonomy city through Google Earth and ArcGIS tool. The Google Earth image series is one of a good solution
to describe the land use change since particularly in the small area. The result has shown that Banjar Municipality urban area
had increased from 13.49% to 15.41% while agricultural area decreased to 69.87%. The interesting part is the city forest only
small part of them had an impact by the development of the city, and although it is a small number of the percentage around
0.3% the area of the lake had increased since the local authority built a new artificial lake. Another interesting finding based
on the land use change and population data is the urban area change mostly happened in Banjar and Langensari District, not
in the Pataruman area, which considered as the highest population increased in the last 11 years of the period.
Keywords—urban area, land use, population density change, autonomy city, Google earth
I. INTRODUCTION
T HE rapid changes in the development of the world have influenced the paradigm of development systems in every
country. According to the resume of the Habitat III Conference of cities on 20 October 2016, it was emphasized urban
population in the world predicted will increase significantly in the middle of the century. In this situation, urban problems will
be concentrated in the cities such as socio-economic and cultural problem as well as environmental and humanitarian problems.
Moreover, (Li et al, 2017) on the paper highlighted that the situation indicated four of every five people would be living in
town or cities and raise the challenges in populations and socio-economic activities such as housing, infrastructure, food
security, and many more aspects. The largest area in the world of the population with large built-up areas are in Asian Countries
with 57.7% proportion, and the second is North America countries 12.4% followed African countries 11.4% and Europe with
9.8% of the proportion of the world (Demographia, 2018).
After the financial crisis hampered Asian by the year 1997, there is a massive transformation in many populous countries
such as China, India, and Indonesia. One of tangible evidence is Indonesia where for a decade of 2000 and 2010 cities in
Indonesia are grown faster compared to any other countries in Asia. Since the transformation of the country from rural and
agricultural based, cities in Indonesia are growing faster compared to any other countries in Asia. During the same period,
according to the World Bank data, Indonesia’s population increased at an average 4.1 % compared to 3.8 % in China, 3.1% in
India and 2.8 % in Thailand (World Bank, 2016). It is interesting to note that at the same period of the year the amount of new
urban land added per new urban resident was less than 40 square meters, which is the smallest amount of any country in the
region (World Bank, 2016), thus it is undeniable that Indonesia will encounter big problem in many facets. There is shred
evidence that there is no country has developed without the growth of its cities or in other word Urbanization is associated
strongly with income level globally (World Bank, 2016). Imbalance spread of the living inhabitant highly contributed to the
significant gap between the increase of population and the availability of new urban resident.
Some cities quite developed when it is located outskirts of major cities or in another word they have a dependency on the
main city, particularly in a small and medium city. Thus it can be concluded that the city development influence not only by
urbanization, but also others factors such nature comparative advantages (topography, natural resources, historical) and
construction development (infrastructure network, social facilities) (Prawatya NA, 2013). Furthermore, the pattern of the
spatial development in urban population have shown as evident of new phenomenon of urban development in Indonesia
especially in Java island where most Indonesian population were living, the tendency of the development of urban corridors
that connect between big cities such as Serang-Jakarta-Karawang corridor, Jakarta-Bandung corridor, Cirebon-Semarang
corridor, Semarang- Yogyakarta, and the Surabaya-Malang corridor, where the formation of corridors is nearly unclear
differences between urban areas and rural areas (Prawatya NA, 2013).
In different research Ardiwijaya et al. (2015) explained that suburbanization causes the urban growth which is randomly
spread/sprawl, and the grown is uncontrollable. Furthermore, suburbanization made the boundaries between urban and rural
areas getting blurred and difficult to distinguish. Socio-economic changes and innovations encourage the transition of land use
to an area over a period (Long, 2007). Quantity, structure and spatial patterns of land use, which are similar to landscape
structures are examples of dominant land use morphology (Long, 2007). One of the evidence in China is about the development
of a rural area that one of the critical things to achieve the success of rural construction and land consolidation programs is it
is done through a trial and error approach. Furthermore, local inhabitants are given the opportunity to take part in decision-
making for the program that will affect their future (Fang, YG, et al, 2016). Based on the evidence, we can see that empowering
local authorities and inhabitants are very important to achieve the goal of the program in another word by giving local
authorities and local inhabitant more opportunity to decide their future gives significant impact to the success of the
development.

icshge.org
The urban area is an area dominated by a human-built environment, where it combines all non-vegetative elements,
including roads, buildings, runways, industrial facilities, etc. (Potere, 2009). In an urban analysis, there is often a discrepancy
between planned developments by municipal governments and actual growth occurring in the field in many cities in the
developing countries (Hadi et al, 2016). The condition usually happened when the development of the city was intervened by
the political purpose especially when the national or local leader changed. Urban land use change is one of the vital keys to
understand the success of development planning and to evaluate how is the spread of urban area including to draw the
correlation with a socio-economic aspect. The gap development between urban and rural area becomes one of the factors
influence the migration of people from an undeveloped area into a more developed area. Since then, there is a growing concern
to deal with this situation with the spread of infrastructure development, which expected to stimulate the economic
development in the rural area including by empowering local authorities to develop local area. Many studies have been done
in several countries about the impact of urbanization on environment and land use impact in big cities but insufficient study in
a new autonomous city, which is closer to rural area, in fact, it is hard to find the study that presenting urban area changes
since the city had been changed into a new autonomy city.
The limitation of free satellite imagery found out in many studies it has limitation mainly to get the high and the latest
image and resolution, meanwhile to get a higher resolution sometimes it is almost not possible due to the security reason.
Google earth imagery is one of the good solutions since it is an open source and provides a clear view of buildings, roads, etc.
hence can be best utilized for urban-related applications (Malarvizhi, et al, 2016).
The use of remote sensing and GIS analysis in urban-related researches have been carried out in Indonesia since early
2000. These techniques in the last 4 years being used to understand the environmental and socio-economic conditions of
Semarang urban (Widyasamratri et al., 2013), urban growth and its relation to population (Handayani & Rudiarto, 2014).
Urban growth and land use modelling (Hadi et al, 2016) but still very limited the research that conducted in a new autonomous
city. This study was conducted in response to the limitation of literature about the urban area and population changes in a new
autonomy city particularly in Indonesia by using Google earth image series and ArcGIS tool with the primary purpose is to
draw and describe the urban area change and population density in the year 2016. We have chosen Banjar Municipality as a
study area since the unique of the city. Although it was administratively named as Banjar Municipality the authority of the
area also consists of villages and at that period was the only city with this uniqueness. However, as it happens in a developing
country, where the map of land use change is not well established, Banjar Municipality also does not have land use change
map.
II. AUTONOMY CITY IN INDONESIA

A. Autonomous city in a response of the globalization era in Indonesia
Globalization is a series of the unity of processes of structurization and stratification, multifaceted social phenomena by
removing political boundaries or can be associated with the deterritorialization and reterritorialization of socio, economic and
political space. However, the influence of globalization is undeniable in almost every aspect of society in the world. In the age
of development of technology, the world seems has no boundary, the world becoming closer, the information getting more and
more accessible compared to the previous era (Held et al, 1999). The influence of globalization has a positive and negative
impact for Indonesia, the positive impact that can be seen is the development of Indonesian society and improve the civilization
of Indonesian society without eliminating the real Indonesian culture. While the negative impacts that arise and are very
damaging are the occurrence of wars and internal conflicts, especially on the transition from the old globalization with a new
era of globalization (Pannenungi, 2013).
The economic rivalry and the threat of national unity are two fundamental problems faced in the era of globalization by
the countries of the world (Yuniarto, 2014). The world and market are integrated and connected into a condition where
virtually no physical boundaries between them constitute one of the traits in the globalization. One of the impacts of
globalization in Indonesia was trade liberalization in 1990 and showed that this condition had a significant impact on the
decline in child labor between the ages of 10 and 15 years. In other words, globalization contributes to the decrease in child
labor exploitation (Kiz-Katos & Sparrow, 2009). The development of technology and the increase of social and economic
interaction among humans and organization will lead to the new era where state and their physical control of force will no
longer be relevant (Keohane & Nye, 2000). Moreover, a result of the low cost of communication and transformation that
enables population mobility and cross-border communications. Thus, the world is integrated globally in various fields both
social, political, and more so in the economy, as well as the environment. Global flows of commodities, information, capital,
and people, as well as factors in distant markets, are increasingly the impetus of the land use changes. This condition is often
associated with growing consumer class in the growing developing world.
By the year of 2005 when Indonesia was implementing the new reformation era, Indonesia was ranked 9 in a new
globalization index with the score 18,02 in Asian Countries followed by Japan with the score 17,71 (Vujakovic, 2010). It is
undeniable that there is a high connection between globalization and other social-economic phenomena such as poverty,
economic growth, development, inequality, and living standards.
Globalization no longer discussing at the national level where inter-state nearly has no partition (state borderless), it has
moved into the lower level region, such as provinces, districts or cities in a country. In other words, it can be concluded that
regional autonomy is also closely linked to the globalization that has emerged in the 70s and 80s in the United States. Since
the decentralization and regional autonomy was raised in Indonesia, it is facing a stumbling block where the development of

icshge.org
the new autonomy region need to respond borderless era in their region planning (Rifai, 2017). Globalization does not yet have
an established definition, except for a working definition, so it depends on the perspective of people see it.
The evidence has shown that an autonomous city tends to have a higher population growth rate compared to a non-
autonomous city. Thus improving the quality of government becomes very important in economic development (Stasavage,
2013). Furthermore, regional development and decentralized institution encourage local public authorities to be more active
in developing their environment with local-based wisdom has the most positive and measurable impact on improving
governance. In the governance of decentralization sometimes has raised new paradigm of the political governance where the
success of the development project is not measured by how many roads, schools or any other infrastructure were built but
measured by how the projects enhance the reputation of the political leaders who spend the projects fund. (Myerson, 2014).
The increase of regionalism in the framework of increasing economic growth and improvement is a pattern of
globalization, so to respond to the increase of regionalism gave birth to a policy of regional autonomy, especially in Indonesia.
There are some interesting pieces of evidence of the impact globalization and regional autonomy in Indonesia, one of the
examples is the impact of globalization and the policy of regional autonomy in Karawang regency West Java Province
Indonesia. The Karawang region is famous as a national rice granary, but since the regional autonomy implemented the city
changed toward manufacturing-based districts, this condition seemed to suppress the original culture of indigenous people
Karawang Regency the culture of farmers and fishermen into a factory and industrial workers (Rifai, 2017). Moreover, the
land use massive changes had impacted to the Karawang region from 2000 to 2015 such as the degradation of paddy fields
was 21,909 ha, while the expansion of pond area was 16,355 ha (Riadi et al, 2018).
B. Decentralization and regional autonomy in Indonesia
Before the independence day of Indonesia, historically the practice of decentralization in Indonesia has been tried in
applied with various motives behind it, especially the colonialist motive that seeks to maintain the efficiency of colonial trade
by keep limiting the power of local leaders. The first president of Indonesia tried to balance the system (Darmawan, RED.,
2008). In practice decentralization in Indonesia has been since 1945 and the Indonesian independence year governance was
governing centralized by the central government. In this case, all policies are controlled and regulated by the central
government. The province is an extension of the central government in the sense of not having the authority to regulate its
territory, while the local government is also very dependent on what the provincial government does and cannot carry out its
regional development initiatives.
In the year of 1974 Law No.5 concerning regional government (pemerintah daerah) was born which is as regulation the
relationship between the central and regional governments. It was formally based on the principle of decentralization,
deconcentration, and co-administration, but again in practice not fully implemented by the government, or in other words the
implementation can be said to be decentralized and regional autonomy has not been applied (Darmawan, RED., 2008).
Actually, in the beginning, the structure of provincial-level and local government in Indonesia is overriding goals of national
political integration and political stability. By the year 1997 when the financial crisis hampered Asian, Indonesia has
experienced a huge impact which was led to the resignation of the second president Soeharto. Since then there were massive
national political changes including in governance system which was named as reformation period in Indonesia. The
reformation has become a growing concern in all aspect of governance. One of the significant changes is the decentralization
system is implemented. In 1998 which is also known as a year of reforms under the threat of disintegration conditions and
pressure from international donor countries, government and DPR (Parliament) of that time drafted a decentralized law which
was considered more democratic and more just, so that the law was born no 22/1999 on Regional Government and invite no
25 on fiscal balance between central and local government. It was legalized in the same year but effectively implemented in
January 2001.
The territory of Indonesia after the regional autonomy law was effectively implemented divided into autonomous
provinces, districts or regency (Kabupaten) and municipalities (Kota). Districts and municipalities are technically at the same
level of government. This distinction is based on whether the government administration is located in a rural area (Regency)
or an urban area (Municipality). Within districts and municipalities, there are districts (Kecamatan) which are smaller
administrative government units. Each sub-district is further divided into villages. Villages in rural areas are called Desa, while
in urban areas they are referred to as Kelurahan.
TABLE I
UNITS OF ADMINISTRATIVE GOVERNMENT IN INDONESIA, 1985–2015
Administrative Level 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015
Province (provinsi) 27 27 27 26 33 33 34 34 34
Regency(kabupaten) 246 241 243 268 349 399 413 416 416
Municipality/City (kota) 55 55 62 73 91 98 98 98 98
District (kecamatan) 3,539 3,625 3,844 4,049 5,277 6,699 6,982 7,024 7,071
Village (desa) 67,534 67,033 65,852 69,050 69,868 77,548 80,714 81,626 81,936
Source: Biro Pusat Statistik (Statistical Bureau), Sixty Years of Indonesian Independence (Statistik 60 Tahun Indonesia Merdeka, Statistics to celebrate 60
years of independence of the Republic of Indonesia); Statistical Yearbook of Indonesia 2016

icshge.org
Table 1 above indicates the addition of new autonomous regions provinces, districts, cities, and even villages changed
almost double in 2015 compared to the beginning of the period of implementation of regional autonomy. Decentralization is a
concept of a theory that is good enough and even tends to be perfect but does not appear to have advantages in the
implementation phase. The practice for decentralized policies to achieve optimal results requires a mature plan. The application
of the policy should be calculated along with a considerable capacity increase at the individual, institutional and system levels.
Implementation of the value of the decentralized in Indonesia is considered less successful since the data shows about 80% of
a new autonomous region are considered not reached the expected results (Faroek & Utama, 2014). Millers (2013) In her
research indicates that autonomous urban areas in Indonesia meet opportunities and challenges simultaneously. This condition
indicates that the regional division of authority to the regions encourages the growth and development of the city that is more
in line with the needs of the region itself. However, this condition also encourages the increase of competition between regions,
even more, the public service system becomes inclined to be concerned with the ego regionality.
Empiric evidence can be seen in small towns in Central Java are concentric structured have slow land development
because there is only a single activity center. On the other hand, Multiple nuclei structured small towns are quite developed
between moderate to high level. This is due to the existence of several centers within the small towns that resulted in high
development of built-up land Based on spatial typology pattern of small towns, it can be explained that the small towns located
on the outskirts of major cities such as Surakarta, Yogyakarta, Semarang, Tegal, Magelang, Salatiga, and Pekalongan, have a
dependency to those main cities (Prawatya, 2013).
III. MATERIAL AND METHOD

A. Study Area
As the most populous Province in Indonesia West Java has become one of the important provinces to support the
development of Indonesia. By the year 2010 according to the national statistical bureau, the population of west java province
reach 43.227 million inhabitants and increase to 46.709 million inhabitants in the last five years. Banjar Municipality is one of
the new cities located in West Java Province, it’s located between 07 ° 19 '- 07 ° 26' South Latitude and 108 ° 26 '- 108 ° 40'
East Longitude. According to the law number 27 of 2002 on the Establishment of Banjar Municipality in West Java Province
the total area of Banjar Municipality is 13,197.23 Ha approximately 113.19 Km2. Since February 21, 2002, Banjar was
announced as an autonomous city which is inaugurated by the Minister of Home Affairs of Indonesia, Banjar Municipality has
been officially running as a new city for 15 years. In its development, Banjar Municipality located in a traffic lane between
West Java Province-Central Java-East Java, thus it is expected to grow as an industrial city, trade, service, and tourism for East
Region of West Java. The total population of Banjar Municipality according to the data from the Office of Population and
Civil Registration Agency in 2004 recorded 160,810 people with details of 79,115 people of male and 81,695 of a female. In
the development of Banjar Municipality residents from 2003 to 2004, it will get the population growth rate of Banjar
Municipality by 0.12 percent lower than the previous year's growth of 0.98 percent. The Population growth in several sub-
districts drives the population growth in general.
With an altitude between 20 up to 500 meters above sea level and tropical climate and become one of the mainstay areas
(i.e., areas capable of contributing to economic growth for the region and surrounding areas). Geohydrological Conditions
Banjar Municipality divided into several formations and units of rock with lithology as follows:
 Alluvium; spread in the area of Banjar Municipality that is in the flat morphology area.
 The frozen rocks are andesite in the form of lava that is the main hamlet (Gunung Sangkur complex and Babakan Mountain
complex) some minor hills (Pasir Tumpeng, Pasir Leutik, Pasir Kengkol, Pasir Gembok, and Mandalareh-Cadasgintung hills).
 The sediment lava, located west of the Babakan Mountain complex and on the undulating morphology of Purwaharja District
to the west.
 The tread formation, which consists of rough green sandstone (bottom), sandstone with napal insert (top) is in the western
part and the southern part of Banjar Municipality that is in District Banjar and Pataruman in the morphology of minor and
bumpy hills.
Soil fertility level in Banjar Municipality is generally moderate (good) with subtle fine soil texture with alluvial soil type
except for District Langensari besides having alluvial soil type also red yellow soil type although not affect the level of fertility
For hydrological conditions (surface water) Banjar Municipality, there are 2 major rivers are:
 Citanduy River (14.20 km)
 Ciseel River (15.22 km)
Watershed (DAS) is a stretch of territory bounded by a morphological barrier (ridge) that it receives. Collect rainwater,
sediment, and nutrients and drain it through the tributaries and out on the main river to the sea or lake. The city of Banjar has
4 watersheds,
 Citanduy Watershed
 Cijolang-Citapen watershed
 Ciseel-Cikembang-Cimaragas watershed
 Cilisung watershed
Banjar Municipality is a very unique city since it was announced as a new autonomous city, this city at that time is the
only city that administratively name Banjar Municipality but the government organization hierarchy consist of 4 Districts
(Kecamatan) and 16 Villages (Desa) or rural area, and it’s made the only one city from 98 cities in Indonesia that consist of

icshge.org
villages/ rural area as its territory. Based on the land use map above, the land use change pattern in Banjar Municipality is
elongated pattern follows the path.
Massive development has been implemented since the city was established and it successfully increases its economic
growth. In the five years after the city officially established, the productivity growth rate of Banjar Municipality's agricultural
sector is relatively good, reaching an average of more than 4 percent per year, and is the second major contributor to the
economic growth rate of Banjar Municipality after a trade, hotels, and restaurants. The economic growth of Banjar
Municipality for the 2006 - 2010 period was positive, from 4.71 percent in 2006 to 4.93 percent in 2007 and slightly decreased
due to external factors in 2008 which only reached 4.82 percent, but in 2009 the economic growth of Banjar Municipality
skyrocketed to 5.13 percent and continued to move up by 5.28 percent in 2010. Banjar Municipality economic progress in
2010 is increasingly stretching since the start of the operation of Banjar Waterpark (BWP) entertainment services in the
Parunglesang area able to give domino effect by contributing to the growth of other businesses, such as the increase of trading
business units, new restaurants, and other services. This condition has influenced the urbanization, migration of the inhabitant
never the lest also has changed the configuration of spatial land use.
B. Data Source and Method
Since the District of Banjar became a new autonomous city in 2002, a new land use map was created in 2006 made by
the Banjar Municipality Regional Planning and Development Agency together with the Ministry of Public Works and Public
Housing of Indonesia. Based on this condition this research uses a basic map created by the Agency Regional Planning of
Banjar Municipality. The next step is to find out the changes of urban area in the year of 2016, we have tried to use technology
from free satellite imagery such as USGS and GLCF but we found out that since the area of the city is not big enough the
image we are facing the unclear image and all of the area is covered by green color so if we continue drawing the land use
change map the result will not valid, thus in this research we use the data image and population density 2006 and 2016. One
of the most effective and efficient solutions is to use Google Earth Image Series which can be accessed for free and provide a
clear view of buildings, roads, etc. and this can be best utilized for urban-related applications (Malarvizhi, et al, 2016).
The boundary of the study area using the digitized map from Banjar Municipality Regional Planning and Development
Agency boundary map. The digitizing of various land use classes was performed to prepare the land use map. The land use
classes that considered in this study were urban area/built-up area, city forest, agricultural area, and water bodies/lake. The
built-up area we define includes all buildings and roads; open land includes barren, rocky, scrubland and residential layouts;
agricultural area comprise vegetation and agricultural lands; lake area we define as a river, natural and artificial lake; city forest
we define as the forestry area. An essential advantage of Google Earth is that it provides images taken from different periods,
which can be used by urban planners to perform land use change detection analysis for free. The research was conduct by
collecting several images from different time periods and we select the clearest view image is the image of 2016.
The next step is the digitized map was converted from ArcGIS shapefile format (.shp) to Google Earth compatible format
(.kml). The Google earth was downloaded, and the digitation in .kml format was opened in Google earth as a boundary area
of study. After the image downloaded from google earth the image was converted from geographic coordinate system
(latitude/longitude) to projected coordinate system (northing/ easting) using Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) projection
in ArcGIS 10.2. The projection image was digitized to draw the land use change based on the criteria Urban/built-up area,
agricultural area, city forest, and water body/lake. In this step, it was started by digitizing map Banjar Municipality boundary
and the next is step to cut polygon for digitize a land use and followed by updating the map of 2016 by a cut polygon or using
shapefile each district.
To validate the map of each district was by doing confirmation to the local authority, including the validation of the area
by comparing the area that we got from digitation with the official area from the Banjar Municipality Regional Planning and
Development Agency and if there is any difference we re-digitizing the image until we got the best map that represented the
existing area (Figure 1 and 2). The population data we collect and analyze from the book of Banjar Municipality in figures
from 2006 to 2016 which was published by Central Statistics Bureau as follows (Table 2, Figure 3 and 4):
TABLE II
POPULATION DENSITY IN BANJAR MUNICIPALITY
2006 2016
Sub-district Population Population Density Population Population Density
(person) (inhab.per km2) (person) (inhab.per.km2)
Banjar 48423 1846 58222 2219
Purwaharja 19711 1313 24108 1462

Pataruman 51348 950 61173 1205
Langensari 49430 1480 58259 1744
Total 168912 202362
Source: Biro Pusat Statistik Kota Banjar (Statistical Bureau Banjar Municipality), Banjar Municipality in figures 2006-2016

icshge.org
Figure 1. Land use condition by the year of 2006.

Source: Banjar Municipality Regional Planning and Development Agency together with the Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing of Indonesia
Figure 2. Land use change by the year of 2016.

Source: Google earth, Banjar Municipality Regional Planning and Development Agency and analyzed by author
The data above have shown us that the increase of the population density almost spread in all sub-district. To draw a
density map, we explore the density data into a lower level of the government administrative such as Village (Desa) and Urban
Village (Kelurahan), the next part is divided into six classifications according to Sturgess Eq. 1 formula:
K = 1 + 3.33 log n Eq. 1
Where K is a classification of the density and n is the number of Village and urban village, then we use the classification

icshge.org
as a boundary in Arcgis program to draw a density map. All the process can be seen in the flowchart below:
Figure 3. The process of drawing Land use change map of Banjar Municipality.
Figure 4. The process of drawing population density map of Banjar Municipality.

Since the City became an autonomous city there are massive changes in city development particularly in the urban area,
however, despite the developed urban area the increasing of the population density also becoming a high concern which has
pushed the agricultural area as we can see on the result below (Figure 5):
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
% percent
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
-
Agricultural Urban/ built
City forest Lake and river
area up Area
2006 71.22 13.49 9.87 5.42
2016 69.87 15.41 9.27 5.45
Figure 5. Land use change in Banjar Municipality in the year of 2006 and 2016.

icshge.org
According to the table above we can see that the urban area in the last 11 (eleven) years since the Banjar Municipality
was becoming a new autonomy city had increased from 13.49% into 15.41% while agricultural area decreased into 69.87%.
The interesting part is the city forest only small part of them had an impact by the development of the city, and although it is
a small value around 0.3% the area of the lake had increased since there is the development of a new artificial lake by the local
government. The urban sprawl in Banjar municipality concentrated in two districts, namely Banjar and Langensari districts, it
is understandable since the infrastructure development policy from local authority based on city planning Banjar considered
as the city center and the District of Langensari is one of the Industrial areas. Except the increase of waterbody area, the most
part of the changes hampered the agricultural area in both districts.
Despite the most of the change of urban area located in the two districts as mention before the urban change in Banjar
Municipality quite spread although it is not in a good pattern. However, the change is still in a good direction as city planning
which is a good indication that the city has a consistency in applying their planning and also can be as a sign that once the city
transforming into an autonomous city they can decide their planning of the city and keep maintain in a good direction (Figure
6 and 7).
Figure 6. Banjar Municipality City Planning in 2008.

Source: Banjar Municipality Planning and Development Bureau
Figure 7. Urban Area Change in Banjar Municipality in 2016.

icshge.org
According to the result of urban area map in the year 2016, the concentric theory of the city is not appeared in Banjar
Municipality. Since the city transforming into a new autonomy city the spread of the city is not changed into a new pattern,
while the result of the population density map has shown that urban area changes also happened in the same location as the
increase of population density, but it did not happen in the highest population district. The result also has shown us although
the urban area changes mostly happened in Banjar and Langensari District there is another finding that when we classified the
population density into a lower level of administrative government in the year of 2016 the highest population density happened
in two urban villages namely Mekarsari Urban Village and Hegarsari Urban Village which is located in Banjar District and
Pataruman District (Figure 8).
Figure 8. Population density map in Banjar Municipality in 2016.
V. CONCLUSION
Syaifuddin et al. (2013) in his study discovered there is a positive correlation between the population and land use change
in District Somba Opu, seems it cannot be generalized to a new autonomy city. According to the result of this study, the result
of the map indicated that the significant increase of the land use change is happened in the lower increase of the population
namely Banjar District and Langensari District, while Pataruman District where considered as the higher population increase
the change is not as big as those two districts. Imbalance spread of the living inhabitant highly contributed to the significant
gap between the increase of population and the availability of a new urban resident, and it should become a high concern of
the city planning to avoid the environmental problems in the future. However, regional development and decentralized
institution encourage local public authorities to be more active in developing their environment with local-based wisdom has
the most positive and measurable impact on improving governance in a developing country as we can see in Banjar
Municipality. There are empirical evidences the impact of globalization is the city development has pushed the agricultural
area as what happen to several cities in a developing country, apparently the condition also happened in a new autonomous
city like Banjar Municipality.
The development of a city cannot be avoided will had impact the land use change. However, the local authority policy
has a big concern to the preservation the water resources as they develop a new artificial lake in order to protect the water
supply in the future. This condition is one of the good advantages of the implementation of regional autonomy policy since
the autonomous city can decide their future by local wisdom and local need and no longer depend on the central government
decision. All in all, for an undeveloped city in a developing country who does not have a land use change map, Google Earth
image is one of good solutions to get the changes of the city since it is free and provide a good resolution of view and it is also
reliable to support for city planning and a research, however, it will need more extra effort of the digitization when the area is
large and need to involve the local authority to validate it or field work validation. In response the development, the
autonomous city need to consider preservation of the natural resources and agricultural area during the development of
infrastructure facility or local amenities in the future. However, to get a large understanding the pattern of land use population
density in a new autonomous city any advance and a deep research should be conduct in a different area, furthermore, to
develop a new knowledge in the socio-economic transformation, comprehensive research is highly recommended.

icshge.org
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This work supported by West Java Province Government and Banjar Municipality Government which has provided primary
data and discussion for validation of the map.
REFERENCES
Ardiwijaya, VS., Sumardi TP., Suganda, E. & Temenggung, YA. (2015) Rejuvenating idle land to sustainable urban form: Case study Bandung Metropolitan
Urban Area, Indonesia. Procedia environmental sciences,28 (2015), 176-184.
Bambang, R., Baba, B., Widiatmaka, Moh, Y., & Bambang, P. (2018) Identification of flood area in the coastal region using remote sensing in Karawang
Regency, West Java, Indonesia. IOP Conf earth environ. Sci 162 012042. Available from: doi:10.1088/1755-1315/162/1/012042 [Accessed 3th October
2018]
BPS (Badan Pusat Statistik. (2017) Indonesian Bureau of Statistics) Banjar Municipality in figures. Indonesian Bureau of Statistics publishing house, Jakarta.
2006, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015.
David, S. (2013) Was Weber Right? City autonomy, Political oligarchy and the rise of Europe. New York, New York University.
Demographia. (2018) Built Up Urban Areas or World Agglomerations, 14th Annual Edition. U.S. Demographia.
Darmawan, RED. (2008) The practice of decentralization in Indonesia and its implication on local competitiveness. Thesis school of management and
government University of Twente, Netherland.
Fang Y., Shi K. & Niu C., (2016) A comparison of the means-ends of rural construction land consolidation: case studies of villager’s attitudes and behaviors
in Changchun City, Jilin Province, China. Journal of rural studies, 47(2016), 459 - 473.
Faroek, A. & Utama, TA. (2014) Decentralization and regional autonomy implementation policy in East Kalimantan, Indonesia. Journal Borneo
Administrator,6(2). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.24258/jba.v6i2.57 (in Bahasa Indonesia)
Fei L., Shuwen Z., Kun B., Jinchun Y., Qing W., & Liping C. (2015) The relationships between land use change and demographic dynamics in western Jilin
province. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 25(5): 617-636.
Google. (2006&2016) Google Earth. [Online] Available from: https://www.Google.com/ earth/. [Accessed 14th June 2018]
Hadi, F., Thapa, R. B., Helmi, M., Manzul K. & Hazarika1. (2016) Urban growth and land use/ land cover modeling in Semarang, Central Java, Indonesia.
Geoinformatics Center, Asian Institute of Technology.
Handayani, W. & Rudiartio, I. (2012) The dynamics of population distribution in Central Java: Formulation of regional policies with kernel density method.
Journal of Diponegoro Faculty, [Home page of Eprints UNDIP] [Online]. Available at: http://eprints.undip.ac.id/35618/. (in Bahasa Indonesia).
Held, D., McGrew, A., Glodblatt, D., & Perraton, J. (1999) Content and introduction in global Transformation: Politics, Economics and Culture. James N,
Rosenau, Stanford, Stanford university press, pp.1-31.
Kis-katos, K. & sparrow, R. (2011) Child labor and trade liberalization in Indonesia. The journal of human resource,46(4),722-749.
Keohane, R.O.& Nye, J.S. (1998) Power and interdependence in the information age. Harvard alumni research library Foreign Affairs,77(5) ,95-108.
Li, H., Peng, J., Yanxiu, L., & Yi’na, H. (2017) Urbanization impact on landscape pattern in Beijing City China: A spatial heterogeneity perspective. Ecological
indicator,82(2017), 50–60.
Li, F., Zhang, S., Bu, K., Yang, J., Wang, Q. & Chang, L. (2015) The relationships between land use change and demographic dynamics in western Jilin
province. Journal of Science Direct, Procedia Technology,25(5),617-636.
Malarvizhi, K., Vasantha Kumar, S. & Porchelvan, P. (2015) Use of High Resolution Google Earth Satellite Imagery in Landuse Map Preparation for Urban
Related Applications. Procedia Technology, 24 (2016), 1835-1842.
Miller, M.A. (2009) Rebellion and reform in Indonesia. Jakarta’s security and autonomy Policies in Aceh. Routledge, London, and New York：Routledge.
Miller, M.A. (2013) Decentralizing Indonesian city spaces as a new center. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research,37(3), 834-848.
Phelps, N.A., T. Bunnell & Miller, M.A. (2011) Post-disaster economic development in Aceh: Neoliberalization and other economic-geographical imaginaries.
Geoforum,42(4),418–426.
Prawatya. N.A. (2013) Spatial Development of Small Towns in Central Java. Indonesian regional and environmental journal.1(1) ,17-32. (in Bahasa
Indonesia).
Potere, D., Schneider, A., Angel, S. & Dabiel, L. (2009) Mapping urban area on a global scale: which of the eight maps now available is more accurate?
International Journal of Remote Sensing,30(24) ,6531-6558.
Paierele, O. (2011) Globalization impact on the global and regional development policies: Republic of Moldova case. CESifo Working Papers,3(1),92-98.
Panennungi, M.A. (2013) Cost and Benefit of Globalization: Lesson Learned from Indonesian History Working Papers in Economics and Business. West
Java, University of Indonesia Publishing. revised Apr 2014
Rifai, M. (2017) Regional autonomy and globalization study of Karawang Regency Development Model. Indonesian journal politic and
communication,2(1),15-28. (in Bahasa Indonesia)
Myearson, R.B. (2014) Democratic Decentralization and Economic Development. [Lecture] The University of Chicago,24th May.
http://home.uchicago.edu/~rmyerson/research/ decent.pdf
Rifai, M. (2017) Regional autonomy and globalization study of Karawang Regency Development Model. Indonesian journal politic and
communication,2(1),15-28. (in Bahasa Indonesia) e-ISSN:2528 – 2069
Syaifuddin, Hamire, A., & Dahlan, M. (2013.) The relationship between population and land use change in District of Somba Opu, Gowa Regency, Indonesia.
Indonesian Agrisystem Journal,9(2),169-179. (in Bahasa Indonesia) ISSN:2089 – 0036
Vujakovic, P. (2010) How to measure globalization? A new globalization index(NGI). Atlantic Economic Journal,38(2), 237.
Widyasamratri, H., Suharyadi, R., Souma, K., & Suetsugi, T. (2013) Analysis of Urban Environmental Conditions Based on Satellite Remote Sensing and
Socioeconomic Conditions Based on Statistics – A Case Study of Semarang Municipality, Indonesia. Journal of Environmental Science and
Engineering,2(2013),398 – 405.
World Bank (2003) Cities in transition: urban sector review in an era of decentralization in Indonesia. East Asia Urban Working Paper Series, Dissemination
Paper No. 7, Urban Sector Development Unit, Infrastructure Department, East Asia, and Pacific Region. Washington, DC, U.S.: The World Bank.
World Bank. (2008) Spending for development: making the most of Indonesia’s new opportunities. Indonesia public expenditure review. International Bank
for Reconstruction and Development and The World Bank. Washington, DC, U.S.: The World Bank.
World Bank. (2016) Indonesia Urban Stories. Washington, DC, U.S.: The World Bank.
Yuniarto, P.R. (2014) Globalization problem in Indonesia between Interest, policy and challenge, Indonesian regional research journal,5(1),67-95 (in Bahasa
Indonesia).

icshge.org
Understanding Information Processing and Consumer Preferences

Towards Eco-Friendly Brands
Olasiuk, H.,1,2,* and Bhardwaj, U.1
1
Jindal dal Global Business School, O.P. Jindal Global University, Sonipat, 131001, Haryana, NCD of Delhi, India
2
KROK University, 30-32 Tabirna St, 03113, Kyiv, Ukraine
*
holasiuk@jgu.edu.in
Abstract—This paper aims to explore the directions of consumer preferences and patterns of information processing in the
course of eco-friendly brands purchase, given age, sex and income level of respondents. The study employs two independent
variables: information processing and consumer preferences to establish the effects on the frequency of eco-friendly brands
purchasing. Consumer preferences estimations were based on psychographic variables such as knowledge, attitude, intention
and influence. Similarly, information processing was assessed by the depth and scope of information needed for decision-
making. The answers collected from 194 respondents were scrutinised in SPSS through factor analysis test and correlation
analysis. Around 55.67% of answers are obtained from employed population followed by 38.14% responses from students.
The research shows controversial results. Namely, a significant amount of people showed concern towards environment,
although, very few could reflect their concern through purchasing eco-friendly brands. Study revealed, that Indian consumers
appreciate eco-brands only if they deliver the same level of satisfaction from consumption in terms of availability and quality.
Though, buyers’ behaviour is unpredictable, there is high degree of certainty that eco-shoppers do not compromise on technical
and logistics parameters. There is also a raising demand for customer-related information about green products usage
experience.
Keywords—information processing, eco-friendly brands, consumer preferences, buying behavior
I. INTRODUCTION
N OWADAYS consumers are getting more aware of environmental issues and are concerned towards them. Such solicitude
for environment and sustainability has led to a rapid increase in eco-friendly brands across various product categories.
Preventing environmental degradation is the aim of many organizations in today’s scenario. Thus, companies are making great
efforts to reduce pressure on Earth ecosystem by using sustainable business practices particularly by focusing on development
of eco-friendly brands also known as green brands.
An eco-friendly brand is defined as “a specific set of brand attributes and benefits related to the reduced environmental
impact of the brand and the respective consumer perception as being environmentally sound” (Hartmann, et al., 2005). Eco-
labels are powerful tools utilized for resource protection (Erwann, 2009). Eco-labels as brand elements convey the information
about consumer’s demands with respect to preservation of environmental protection (Bruce & Laroiya, 2007). They ensure
that concerned measures have been undertaken for certain products to prevent unacceptable consequences on the ecosystem
and the environment (Gouin, et al., 2006). The concept of green products is also associated with sustainable manufacturing
and supply chain management that involves environment-friendly standards, technologies and practices incorporated in the
processes of raw materials procurement, production, storage, packaging, shipping, and distribution (Palevich, 2011).
Eco-friendly brands follow the concept of green marketing as one of their main strategies. Consumers gain knowledge of
green products through green marketing (Peattie & Charter, 2003). Today, green marketing is an essential part of marketing
research to promote eco-friendly behaviour among consumers and organizations. Green marketing is defined as “all activities
designed to generate and facilitate any exchanges intended to satisfy human needs or wants such that the satisfaction of these
needs and wants occurs, with minimum harmful impact on the natural environment” (Polonsky, 2011). Nowadays market share
of eco-labelled products remains quite low, despite great level of efforts made towards making them more effective and
efficient (Rex & Baumann, 2007). Because they target a specific set of consumers, green-product manufacturers face number
of challenges associated with marketing eco-friendly brands. Green marketing focuses on enhancing the quality of human life
and natural environment rather than focusing only on the needs of consumers (Polonsky, 2011).
Buying green products is one element of sustainable behaviour likewise saving power, recycling, reducing water
consumption, using less packaging and bags, buying energy efficient devices. Despite great concerns about environment,
consumer behaviour is misleading in sustainability patterns. Another problem is that consumption of green or eco-friendly
products does not always grant high quality, aesthetics, availability, convenience, high service level. Unfortunately, presently
Indian market lacks awareness and understanding of sustainable consumption. The idea of consuming less rather than
consuming differently prevails among customers irrespectively to income group belongingness (World Business Council for
Sustainable Development, 2008).
This study aims to reveal whether demographic and behavioural factors predetermine consumer preferences toward eco-
friendly products and how information processing affect consumer choice.
II. LITERATURE REVIEW

A. Information processing towards eco-friendly brands
Information processing it is a multistage process resulting in performing task or decision-making. Information processing
mechanism which fosters customers to take a decision typically include information search, receipt (Bettman & Park, 1980;

icshge.org
Jacoby, 1977), evaluation and integration (Ryan & Bonfield, 1975; Wilkie & Pessemier, 1973; Wright, 1974). Cognitive
phycology scholars focus on the role of memory and the capacity of human brain for information processing (Bettman, 1979;
Schmidt & Spreng, 1996; Srinivasan, 1990; Sternthal & Craig, 1982). Consumer’s information search depends on the ability
to search (Bettman, 1979; Bettman & Park, 1980; Petty & Cacioppo, 1986). The perceived ability to search is defined as “the
perceived cognitive capacity of searching for and processing information” (Schmidt & Spreng, 1996). The capability to search
includes the cognitive processing ability, knowledge of how to search for an information and where to search for a particular
information (Brucks, 1985; MacInnis, et al., 1991). Cognitive anthropology toward information processing originates from
number of cultural theories explaining human behaviour (Wagner, 2002).
Consumer information processing relies on various factors such as existing knowledge of the product and familiarity with
the product (Raaij, 1977). Generally, it involves the interest of the consumer in making the choice. Personality predictors
describe the way an individual perceives and remembers information. A consumer may asses any financial, social, or personal
risk involved while processing information of any product. Environmental and situational factors like pressure of time, various
distractions and crowding in the store also have an influence on the way a consumer processes information (Wright, 1974).
Consumer information processing is also affected by the structure and format of the product information provided by a
company. According to theories related to information processing, it has been indicated that younger people try searching more
for creative, new and alternate information (Evanschitzky & Wunderlich, 2006; Gilly & Zeithaml, 1985). Whereas, older
people do not try to seek for more information and rely on the existing information because their capacity of information
processing declines with age (Evanschitzky & Wunderlich, 2006; Gilly & Zeithaml, 1985; Ratchford, et al., 2001).
The decision of consumers is influenced by the constituents of the task and how the information is provided. The consumer
accesses the information through advertisements and brochures. It can also be obtained from friends, family and sales people.
Decisions can be classified as stimulus-based, memory-based and mixed decisions (Lynch & Srull, 1982). A stimulus-based
decision is “a decision where all the relevant information is externally available in the form of a summary table or a catalogue”.
“When a decision is made by using only the information available in our memory”, it is called a memory-based decision.
Mixed decisions involve the use of both the external information and the information available in our memory. Mixed decisions
are considered to be most prevalent. Consumers must learn to integrate the information present in the memory and the external
environment.
B. Consumer preferences towards eco-friendly brands: rational and emotional approaches
Typically, consumer preference is defined as “how a consumer ranks a collection of goods or services or prefers one
collection over another”. Classical microeconomics states that consumer behaviour is always rational: consumer prefer one
product over another based on the utility derived from the consumption of certain bundles of goods. Consumer operates by the
ideas of opportunity costs, marginalism and utility maximization to rationalize and justify a choice (Salvatore, 2008). Problem
of rational and emotional in decision making process has been well discussed in a book of Nobel Prize winner in economics
Richard Thaller (Thaller & Sunstein, 2009). Unlike logical reasoning in mapping consumer preferences, emotional triggers
like love, pride, envy jointly with desire to follow role models perform a cut-off function to help grade available choices and
mediate consumer decisions. Increasing importance of emotional messages in marketing campaigns that appeal to automatic
decision-making centres (without proper prior reasoning) in human brain have been also well argued in psychology and
behavioural sciences. Based on this discovery marketer for eco-brands popularization need to re-tune marketing
communication with greater focus on emotional component.
Predictors that affect consumer’s purchasing behaviour towards green products have been examined in a recent research
of (Gan, et al., 2008). Their findings revealed that price, quality and brand are the most essential product attributes that the
consumers take into consideration while making purchase decisions for green products. Moreover, buyers expect all products
to be environmentally safe and felt no need of a trade-off for quality or extra prices for the products (D'Souza, et al., 2006).
Green shoppers are influenced by social, cultural, personal and psychological characteristics while purchasing something
with eco-label (Kotler, et al., 2005). Every person has a different personality and this personality influences the buying
behaviour of that individual (Kotler & Armstrong, 2008). Consumers usually buy products that match their personality.
Therefore, it is essential to comprehend the lifestyle patterns of the consumers. Identifying opinion leaders is essential to
encourage brand adoption. Opinions leaders act as influencers and leading adopters (Kotler & Armstrong, 2008). Opinion
leaders are the consumers that drive trends, tend to influence mass opinion and hence, sell a lot of products as a result. They
utilize their wide circle of known people to spread their knowledge about the product. This knowledge might be good or bad
as perceived by him.
The profiles of consumers who want to pay extra for environment friendly products have been identified and analysed in
many papers (Laroche, et al., 2001). Their research also elaborates on marketing strategies developed from a better
understanding of this profile of consumers. One study targeted the population of a North American city for sample procedures
and data collection. Consumers who were willing to pay more for environment friendly products took into consideration the
present ecological situation and the need to act swiftly towards it. They believed that corporations do not act responsibly
towards the environment and they gave a high priority to ecological issues while making purchases.
C. Attitudinal-behavioural triggers of consumer purchase intentions
An intention is defined as “a person’s commitment, plan, or decision to carry out an action or achieve a goal” (Eagly &
Chaiken, 1993). It refers to how hard the consumer is willing to try to make a purchase. Consumer’s desire to safeguard the
environment determines his preference to purchase eco-friendly brands. When a consumer develops a favourable attitude

icshge.org
towards an object, it is very likely to influence his perception towards that object.
According to early research studies, there is not much of a correlation between various types of pro-environmental
behaviours of an individual (Tracy & Oskamp, 1983-1984). This implicates that people who practice recycling might not
necessarily prefer carpooling. Such type of irregularities occurs due to the focus of researchers on generalized view instead of
focussing on certain behavioural aspects only (Mainieri, et al., 1997). Therefore, to understand specific behaviours, the
attitudes must be directed towards certain issues like purchasing eco-friendly brands (Gadenne, et al., 2011; Wulfa &
Odekerken-Schröder, 2003).
Consumer decision about purchasing eco-brands vary across product categories and services. For instance, intentions to
visit eco-hotels are similar among all age, income and education groups, and predominantly differ by gender and previous
experience (Han, et al., 2011 ). Purchase intention of “green” sportswear buyers are found to be significantly affected by
expectations, perception, subjective norms and attitude toward eco-products (Changhyun, et al., 2017). In case of buying eco-
food family size, number of children, perceived quality of goods, food safety and environmental concerns comprise a set of
precursors affecting consumer choice (Loureiro, et al., 2001). According to their results number of children under 18 bring
eco-sales up, at the same time family size moves it down. Interestingly that eco-friendly food shoppers do not consider eco-
wine as a product worth of distinguishing among conventional wines (Sirieix & Remaud, 2010). An empirical study run by
(Paul & Rana, 2012) revealed that education and location have significant impact on purchase frequency, in the same time age,
gender, income and family size do not. Quite relevant that majority of eco-consumers are motivated by overall benefit derived
from eco-food purchases, anticipating positive health and environmental outcomes. Environmental concerns are predetermined
by eco-attitudes, eco-behaviour, which in turn affect purchase intention (Paul, et al., 2016).
D. Contextual framework
To conclude, studies on information processing and consumer preferences toward eco-friendly brands have developed a
solid corpus of knowledge to explain consumer decision-making process. From a system approach information processing and
consumer preferences fit into decision-making process. Consumer preferences result from outcomes of information processing.
Prior to decision consumers conduct information search. In the course of obtaining more information it automatically processes
by consumer’s cognitive system. Figure 1 is self-explanatory form demonstrates interrelation of information processing,
consumer preferences in decision-making process.
Decision-making process Information processing

processing
Problem Information Information Purchase

Recognition Search Evaluation Decision
Scope of Influence,
Knowledge Intention
information Attitude
Determinants of consumer preferences
Figure 1. Consumer decision-making framework.
E. Research hypotheses
H1: There is no relationship between demographic variables and purchase frequency of eco-friendly brands
H2: Consumer preferences and purchase frequency are interrelated
H3: Information processing affects purchase frequency
III. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND DATA COLLECTION

To understand the relation of information processing and psychographic variables of consumer preferences towards eco-
friendly brands a questionnaire with 18 statements was developed and circulated (Table 1). The respondents were asked to
submit their replies on these statements on a five-point scale as strongly disagree, disagree, neutral, agree and strongly agree.
We used Likert scaling technique to analyse the responses; scores were allotted: 1 for strongly disagree, 2 for disagree, 3 for
neutral, 4 for agree and 5 for strongly agree.

icshge.org
TABLE I
QUESTIONNAIRE FOR DEFINING THE VIEWS OF THE RESPONDENTS ON ECO-FRIENDLY BRANDS
VARIABLES STATEMENTS
I know and understand the extent of harm that human beings cause to the earth.
Climate pattern of the earth has been changing because of the damage caused.
KNOWLEDGE
I am concerned about protecting the environment.
We should learn to live in harmony with nature in order to survive.
I would purchase eco-friendly brands only when someone in my family insists on
buying them.
I would purchase eco-friendly brands only when there is no other choice.
INFLUENCE I cannot change my behaviour voluntarily for anything unless there was some
compulsion.
I would continue to buy brands that are convenient to me until they are available in
CONSUMER PREFERENCES the market.
My individual role as a consumer matters a lot for the community welfare.
I have changed / would change my choice of many brands for ecological reasons.
ATTITUDE When I choose a brand, I will try to consider how my consumption of such brands
will affect the environment and other consumers.
I would prefer eco-friendly brands only if they are beneficial in terms of cost and
quality to my family.
I always prefer an eco-friendly brand over conventional brand given the price is
same.
INTENTION I think that people and environment will benefit from consumption of eco-friendly
brands
While shopping, I always search for an eco-friendly brand in the store.
I acquire a lot of information about an eco-friendly brand before purchasing it.
INFORMATION DEPTH OF SEARCH AND
PROCESSING INFORMATION CONTENT I search for specific information such as brand popularity and reviews for selecting
an eco-friendly brand.
I purchase eco-friendly brands (once a week, month, six months, year, never &
ECO-FRIENDLY BRANDS PURCHASE FREQUENCY
others)
Estimation of environmental knowledge, influence on consumer decision-making, altruistic (positive)/ egoistic (negative)
consumer attitude are borrowed from recent research on eco-friendly brands (Padmavathi, 2015). The intention of consumers
for purchasing eco-friendly brands is adapted according to studies about purchase intention (Lusk, et al., 2007). Information
processing by consumers is measured using two predictors (Capon & Burke, 1980). The last indicator of purchase frequency
of eco-friendly brands contains only one question (Padmavathi, 2015).
The effective sample size consisted of 194 subjects (66 female), 154 subjects are aged between 21-30, with equally
distributed income level across all the range of respondents. 83.51% are single, and 55% are employees (Table 2).
With the intention of exploiting the relationship between frequency of eco-brands purchases, information processing and
consumer preferences, descriptive and inferential statistics is employed. For the purposes of this study we select the audience
of students and working professionals between 18-60 years old. Convenience sampling technique covers 194 respondents. The
SPSS software is used to analyse data. Multiple regression, correlation, descriptive statistics, ANOVA tests are applied to test
research hypotheses. Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy, Bartlett's Test of Sphericity and Cronbach's Alpha
were utilized to test data robustness.
TABLE II
DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SAMPLE SIZE
Variable Characteristics Percentage Frequency
Gender Male 65.00% 117
Female 35.00% 63
Age 20 and below 7.22% 13
21-30 80.00% 144
31-40 7.22% 13
41-50 2.78% 5
50 and above 2.78% 5
Occupation Student 38.33% 69
Employee 55.56% 100
Business 4.44% 8
Homemaker 1.67% 3
Marital status Married 14.44% 26
Unmarried 85.56% 154
Income per month/rupees Below 25,000 13.71% 24
25,000-50,000 21.71% 38
50,000-75,000 24.00% 42
75,000-1,00,000 12.57% 22
Above 1,00,000 28.00% 49
Once a week 7.22% 13

icshge.org
Frequency of eco-product Once a month 40.56% 73

purchasing Once is six months 24.44% 44
Once a year 19.44% 35
Other (please specify) 8.33% 15
Source: authors research
IV. FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION

From the sample size of 194 only 181 have completed all questionnaire. Frequency distribution results admit high level
of confidence about ecological situation on the planet and cause humans to be the reason of negative climate changes.
Influential component of consumer behaviour contains high uncertainty and neutrality, which makes predictions ambiguous.
Thought the drivers to buy eco-products are huge, consumers would search for convenience and comfort, acceptable costs and
quality (Table 3).
TABLE III
FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION OF RESPONDENTS ON ECO-BRAND PREFERENCES AND INFORMATION PROCESSING
STRONGLY
STRONGLY
DISAGREE
DISAGREE
NEUTRAL
AGREE
AGREE
Q1. I know and understand the extent of harm that human
beings cause to the earth. 1,11% 1,11% 3,33% 49,45% 45,00%
Q2. Climate pattern of the earth has been changing because
KNOWLEDGE
of the damage caused. 1,67% 0,56% 2,78% 42,77% 52,22%
Q3. I am concerned about protecting the environment. 1,11% 0,56% 8,33% 47,22% 42,78%
Q4. We should learn to live in harmony with nature in
order to survive. 1,11% 1,11% 1,67% 42,78% 53,33%
Q5. I would purchase eco-friendly brands only when

someone in my family insists on buying them. 10,00% 28,33% 33,90% 18,33% 9,44%
Q6. I would purchase eco-friendly brands only when there

is no other choice. 16,11% 44,45% 24,44% 10,56% 4,44%
Q7. I cannot change my behavior voluntarily for anything

INFLUENCE
unless there was some compulsion. 14,44% 37,78% 24,44% 19,44% 3,90%
Q8. I would continue to buy brands that are convenient to

me until they are available in the market. 4,44% 12,22% 36,67% 41,11% 5,56%
Q9. My individual role as a consumer matters a lot for the

community welfare. 2,22% 2,78% 17,78% 57,78% 19,44%
Q10. I have changed / would change my choice of many
brands for ecological reasons. 1,11% 3,33% 23,33% 56,11% 16,12%
Q11. When I choose a brand, I will try to consider how my
consumption of such brands will affect the environment
ATTITUDE
and other consumers. 2,22% 5,56% 23,89% 54,44% 13,89%
Q12. I would prefer eco-friendly brands only if they are

beneficial in terms of cost and quality to my family. 2,22% 12,80% 24,44% 47,22% 13,33%
Q13. I always prefer an eco-friendly brand over

conventional brand given the price is same. 2,22% 4,44% 27,22% 43,90% 22,22%
INTENTION
Q14. I think that people and environment will benefit from

consumption of eco-friendly brands. 2,22% 1,11% 11,67% 58,90% 26,10%
Q15. While shopping, I always search for an eco-friendly

brand in the store. 5,00% 18,89% 40,56% 30,00% 5,55%
INFORMAT
Q16. I acquire a lot of information about an eco-friendly

DEPTH OF
CONTENT
SEARCH
brand before purchasing it. 5,00% 17,22% 34,44% 33,90% 9,44%

AND
ION
Q17. I search for specific information such as brand

popularity and reviews for selecting an eco-friendly brand. 2,78% 13,89% 31,10% 45,56% 6,67%
Source: authors research

icshge.org
Data shows that buyers are keen for information search prior purchasing, particularly, more than 52% are curious about
brand popularity and read customers feedbacks. These findings related to Indian customers are in cohesion with global
consumption patterns of eco-products, when number of technical, quality-related, psychological factors retain purchasers from
eco-products (World Business Council for Sustainable Development, 2008).
Study reveals that slightly more than 7% buy eco-labelled goods every week, almost 41% of respondents buy eco-labelled
products every other month, about 25% – once in 6 months, and 27% at least once a year or less. Demographic breakdown is
following: most powerful age segment is 21-30 years population, of a male gender, predominantly unmarried employees with
income level 50-75 thousand or 1 lakh rupees. Generally, holders of these demographic features buy eco-brands once a month
or frequently. This finding describes broadly obtained sample size. However, in our study there was no relationship revealed
between demographic variables and frequency of eco-branded products bought by customers. This outcome fits perfectly with
the results obtained for customer preferences for eco-friendly paper (P. Kishore & Byram, 2013).
TABLE IV
KMO AND BARTLETT'S TEST
Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy. .763
Bartlett's Test of Sphericity Approx. Chi-Square 825.549

df 105
Sig. .000
Source: SPSS output
Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin statistic of sampling adequacy is 0.763, which is above the minimum criteria of 0.5. Bartlett's
measure represents significance of selected factors. Thus, sample size is appropriate for factor analysis. Reliability test is based
on Cronbach’s Alpha test (Table 4,5).
TABLE V
RELIABILITY TEST OF SAMPLE DATA
Cronbach's Alpha N of Items

.760 18
Source: SPSS output
Since, the Cronbach’s alpha is greater than 0.7, the data used in the study is reliable.
TABLE VI
TOTAL VARIANCE EXPLAINED
Initial Eigenvalues Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings Rotation Sums of Squared Loadings
Component
Cumulative % of Cumulative % of
Total % of Variance Total Total Cumulative %
% Variance % Variance
1 3.703 24.689 24.689 3.703 24.689 24.689 2.924 19.494 19.494
2 2.459 16.395 41.083 2.459 16.395 41.083 2.567 17.113 36.607
3 1.759 11.729 52.813 1.759 11.729 52.813 2.212 14.747 51.354
4 1.036 6.907 59.719 1.036 6.907 59.719 1.255 8.365 59.719
5 .873 5.820 65.539
6 .812 5.413 70.952
7 .712 4.744 75.695
8 .657 4.380 80.076
9 .567 3.780 83.856
10 .497 3.311 87.167
11 .461 3.072 90.239
12 .452 3.012 93.251

icshge.org
13 .377 2.513 95.764
14 .350 2.332 98.096
15 .286 1.904 100.000

Source: SPSS output
A. Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

By definition of Kaiser’s criterion, retaining factors with eigenvalues more than 1 are used. Totally, four factors explain
about 60% of all variance. Optimized factor structure gives more precise and equal numbers of variance explanation (Table
6).
TABLE VII
ROTATED COMPONENT MATRIX
Component
1
3 4
Attitude and 2 Knowledge
Influence Occasion
Intention
Extent of harm human beings cause to the earth .824
Climate pattern of the earth .771
Concerned about protecting the environment .727
Learn to live in harmony with nature .717 .332

Purchase eco-friendly brands someone insists .814
Purchase eco-friendly brands when no other choice. .770
I cannot change my behaviour voluntarily unless compulsion. .666
Continue to buy brands that are convenient to me .518 .482
Role as a consumer matters for community welfare .622

I have changed my choice for ecological reasons .757
When I choose a brand, how my consumption affects the environment .758
Prefer eco-friendly brands if beneficial in terms of cost and quality .733

Eco-friendly brand is preferred over conventional brand given the price is
.647 .348
same
People and environment will benefit from eco-friendly brands .668
I always search for an eco-friendly brand in the store .620 .367
Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization.a
a. Rotation converged in 6 iterations.
Source: SPSS output
Principal Component Analysis has identified 3 main components with substantial factor loadings that might affect eco-
friendly brands purchases, fourth component does not meet PCA score criteria of more than 0.5.
TABLE VIII
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation Kurtosis
Statistic Statistic Statistic Statistic Std. Error Statistic Statistic Std. Error
Age 194 1 5 2.16 .051 .713 6.881 .347
Gender 194 1 2 1.34 .034 .475 -1.554 .347
Occupation 194 1 5 1.71 .048 .669 3.439 .347
Marital status 194 1 2 1.84 .027 .372 1.325 .347

icshge.org
Monthly family income 189 1 5 3.24 .102 1.408 -1.307 .352
Source: SPSS output
Descriptive statistics associated with demographic parameters demonstrates following characteristics: there is a negative
kurtosis in gender and income distribution, monthly income and are represent largest standard deviation (Table 8).
TABLE IX
ANOVA TEST AND REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS FOR CONSUMER PREFERENCES
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.

1 Regression 14.458 4 3.615 3.266 .013b
Residual 209.155 189 1.107
Total 223.613 193
a. Dependent Variable: I purchase eco-friendly brands:
b. Predictors: (Constant), REGR factor score 4 for analysis 1, REGR factor score 3 for analysis 1, REGR factor score 2 for analysis 1, REGR factor
score 1 for analysis 1
Coefficientsa
Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients
Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.
1 (Constant) 2.758 .076 36.513 .000
REGR factor score 1 for analysis 1 -.114 .076 -.106 -1.501 .135
REGR factor score 2 for analysis 1 .225 .076 .209 2.967 .003
REGR factor score 3 for analysis 1 .084 .076 .078 1.110 .268
REGR factor score 4 for analysis 1 -.067 .076 -.062 -.880 .380
Source: SPSS output
In order to test the hypotheses that the consumer preferences defined by knowledge, influence, attitude and intention had
effect on the level of eco-purchases one-way ANOVA test was conducted (Table 9). Between-group ANOVA test yielded
statistically significant results, thus, null hypotheses of no difference between data was rejected.
Regression analysis does not represent relationship between consumer preferences, information processing and frequency
of purchasing eco-friendly brands. The detailed factor significance for consumer-related components are following: 1) attitude
and intention – 0.135; 2) environmental knowledge – 0.003; 3) influence – 0.268, 4) occasion – 0.380. Thus, frequency of eco-
brands purchases is not affected by influences from family or market conditions, such as availability and accessibility of
products, given freedom of choice is ensured. Not even attitudes and intention matter for eco-purchases. Eco-sales in selected
regions of India are driven by environmental concerns and awareness on environmental issues society faces.
TABLE X
ANOVA TEST AND REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS FOR INFORMATION PROCESSING
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression .161 1 .161 .139 .710b
Residual 223.452 192 1.164
Total 223.613 193
b. Predictors: (Constant), REGR factor score 1 for analysis 1
Coefficientsa
Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients
Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.
1 (Constant) 2.758 .077 35.605 .000
REGR factor score 1 for analysis 1 -.029 .078 -.027 -.372 .710
Source: SPSS output
One-way ANOVA states the absence of statistically significant difference between group means. (Table 10). The
significance for information processing is 0.710, which is greater than 0.05. So, we cannot reject the null hypothesis and there
is no relation between information processing and purchase frequency of eco-friendly brands.
V. CONCLUSIONS
Consumers make decisions based on preferences that reflect bundle of objective (age, gender, income level) and
subjective (problem awareness and intention, purchase influence and personal attitudes, degree of information search)

icshge.org
decision-making factors. Understanding of factors help marketers better communicate with target audience, excel in
uncovering both socio-demographic and behavioural patterns. Our analysis did not find relationship between demographic
variables and buying frequency. Modelling of consumer preferences did not prove substantial significance of influential
component on quantity of eco-products consumers buy. Research failed to establish inductive impact of family members, other
external compulsive determinants like availability of alternative products along with better product quality and convenience
on eco-purchases frequency.
In contrast to the opinion that raising awareness about impact of eco-friendly brands on environmental preservation does
not stimulate eco-shopping, our research stipulates the opposite. The environmental awareness and eco-shopping frequency
are positively correlated, particularly environmentally concerned consumers and those who learn to live in harmony with nature
appeared to do eco-purchases more often. Consequently, instruments of consumer attraction and retention vary depending on
purchaser’s knowledge about environmental situation and lifestyle they follow.
Thus, green marketing in situation when greater part of consumers persist is state of eco-indifference or ignorance,
targeting needs to be divided toward shoppers who are environmentally concerned to stimulate repeated purchases and those,
who are unaware to attract attention.
For existing customers, eco-oriented firms are recommended to work on product competitiveness, improve consumer
characteristics, develop distribution channels, provide more information about values that eco-products deliver, create
distinction in packaging to ease product search on store shelves or online to pursue more loyalty and consumer recognition.
Companies need to adopt different marketing approach toward audience who remains ignorant about prevention of
environmental degradation through eco-consumption. This type of customers feels lack of knowledge, thus the best way to
build awareness is to communicate on general environmental issues, support social initiatives and develop strong eco-oriented
industry community aiming to popularise “green” concepts.
At any stage of eco-consumer journey marketers need to convey messages appealing to emotional and rational reasoning
of buyers, provide clear and unbiased information on product features, invest in eco-labelling and eco-lifestyle promotion.
Both marketers and policymakers should take active steps in shaping positive attitude toward eco-products and subtly nudge
consumers to switch toward more environmentally-friendly behaviour.
Limitations of this research might be overcome if broader dataset is collected from other regions of India or developing
economies to establish consumption patterns. As addition to this study it would be interesting to find out ratio of emotional
and rational reasoning in decision-making of eco-shoppers and reveal transformational journey of customers from regular to
eco-friendly consumers.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors express sincere gratitude to Dr. Satyam, Senior Research Associate in O. P. Jindal Global University for the
expertise of questionnaire and technical support of a research project.
REFERENCES
Bettman, J. & Park, C., 1980. Effects of prior knowledge and experience and phase of the choice process on consumer decision processes: A protocol
analysis. Journal of consumer research, pp. 234-248.
Bettman, J. R., 1979. An Information Processing Theory of Consumer Choice. Journal of Marketing, pp. 124-126.
Bruce, C. & Laroiya, A., 2007. The Production of Eco-Labels. Environmental and Resource Economics, p. 275–293.
Brucks, M., 1985. The Effects of Product Class Knowledge on Information Search Behavior. Journal of Consumer Research, pp. 1-16.
Capon, N. & Burke, M., 1980. Individual, Product class, and task-related factors in consumer information processing. The journal of consumer research, pp.
314-326.
Changhyun, N., Huanjiao, D. & Young-A, L., 2017. Factors influencing consumers’ purchase intention of green sportswear. Fashion and Textiles, 4(2), pp.
1-17.
D'Souza, C., Taghian, M., Lamb, P. & Peretiatkos, R., 2006. Green products and corporate strategy: an empirical investigation. Society and business review,
pp. 144-157.
Eagly, A. & Chaiken, S., 1993. The psychology of attitudes. Fort Worth: s.n.
Erwann, C., 2009. Eco-labelling: A new deal for a more durable fishery management?. Ocean & Coastal Management, pp. 250-257.
Evanschitzky, H. & Wunderlich, M., 2006. An examination of moderator effects in the four-stage loyalty model. Journal of Service Research, pp. 330-345.
Gadenne, D., Sharma, B., Kerr, D. & Smith, T., 2011. The influence of consumers' environmental beliefs and attitudes on energy saving behaviours. Energy
Policy, pp. 7684-7694.
Gan, C., Wee, H. Y., Ozanne, L. & Kao, T.-H., 2008. Consumers' purchasing behavior towards green products in New Zealand. Innovative Marketing, pp.
93-102.
Gilly, M. C. & Zeithaml, V. A., 1985. The Elderly Consumer and Adoption of Technologies. Journal of Consumer Research, pp. 353-357.
Gouin, S., Charles, E. & Boude, J., 2006. Market trends of seafood products under international constraints: contractualisation, marketing strategies and new
behaviours. Marketing Dynamics within the Global Trading System: New Perspectives, pp. 1-17.
Han, H., Hsu, L., Lee, J. & Sheu, C., 2011 . Are lodging customers ready to go green? An examination of attitudes, demographics, and eco-friendly
intentions. International Journal of Hospitality Management, pp. 345-355.
Hartmann, P., Apaolaza Ibáñez, V. & Forcada Sainz, F. J., 2005. Green branding effects on attitude: functional versus emotional positioning strategies.
Marketing Intelligence & Planning, pp. 9-29.
Jacoby, J., 1977. The Emerging Behavioral Process Technology in Consumer Decision-Making Research. Association for Consumer Research, pp. 263-265.
Kotler, P. & Armstrong, G., 2008. Principles Of Marketing. s.l.:Prentice Hall.
Kotler, P., Brown, L., Adam, S. & Armstrong, G., 2005. Marketing. s.l.:Prentice Hall.
Laroche, M., Bergeron, J. & Barbaro-Forleo, G., 2001. Targeting consumers who are willing to pay more for environmentally friendly products. Journal of
Consumer Marketing, pp. 503-520.
Loureiro, M. L., McCluskey, J. J. & Mittelhammer, R. C., 2001. Assessing Consumer Preferences for Organic, Eco-labeled, and Regular Apples. Journal of
Agricultural and Resource Economics, 26(2), pp. 404-416.
Lusk, J. L., McLaughlin, L. & Jaeger, S. R., 2007. Strategy and Response to Purchase Intention Questions. Marketing Letters, 18(1-2), pp. 31-44.

icshge.org
Lynch, J. G. & Srull, T. K., 1982. Memory and Attentional Factors in Consumer Choice: Concepts and Research Methods. Journal of Consumer Research,
pp. 18-37.
MacInnis, D. J., Moorman, C. & Jaworski, B. J., 1991. Enhancing and Measuring Consumers' Motivation, Opportunity, and Ability to Process Brand
Information from Ads. Journal of Marketing, pp. 32-53.
Mainieri, T. et al., 1997. Green Buying: The Influence of Environmental Concern on Consumer Behavior. The Journal of Social Psychology, pp. 189-204.
P. Kishore, K. & Byram, A., 2013. A Study on Consumer Behavior towards Eco-Friendly Paper. Global Journal of Management and Business Research
Administration and Management , 13(11), pp. 9-14.
Padmavathi, D., 2015. Green Consumer Behaviour - An empirical study with respect to select eco-friendly products, Coimbatore: Shodhganga INFLIBNET.
Palevich, R., 2011. The Lean Sustainable Supply Chain: How to Create a Green Infrastructure with Lean Technologies. s.l.:s.n.
Paul, J., Modi, A. & Patel, J., 2016. Predicting green product consumption using theory of planned behaviour and reasoned action. Journal of Retailing and
Consumer Services, Volume 29, pp. 123-134.
Paul, J. & Rana, J., 2012. Consumer behaviour and purchase intention for organic food. Journal of Consumer Marketing, 29(6), pp. 412-422.
Peattie, K. & Charter, M., 2003. Green marketing. s.l.:s.n.
Petty, R. E. & Cacioppo, J. T., 1986. The Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion. Communication and Persuasion, pp. 1-24.
Polonsky, M. J., 2011. Transformative green marketing: Impediments and opportunities. Journal of Business Research, pp. 1311-1319.
Raaij, W. F. v., 1977. Consumer Information Processing For Different Information Structures and Formats. Advances in Consumer Research, pp. 176-184.
Ratchford, B. T., Talukdar, D. & Lee, M.-S., 2001. A Model of Consumer Choice of the Internet as an Information Source. International Journal of
Electronic Commerce, pp. 7-21.
Rex, E. & Baumann, H., 2007. Beyond ecolabels: what green marketing can learn from conventional marketing. Journal of Cleaner Production, pp. 567-
576.
Ryan, M. J. & Bonfield, E. H., 1975. The Fishbein Extended Model and Consumer Behavior. Journal of Consumer Research, p. 118–136.
Salvatore, D., 2008. Consumer Preferences and Choice. In: Microeconomics Theory and Applications. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 70-84.
Schmidt, J. B. & Spreng, R. A., 1996. A Proposed Model of External Consumer Information Search. Journal of the academy of Marketing Science, pp. 246-
256.
Sirieix, L. & Remaud, H., 2010. Consumer perceptions of eco‐friendly vs. conventional wines in Australia. Auckland, New Zeland, 5th International
Academy of Wine Business Research Conference.
Srinivasan, N., 1990. Pre-purchase external search for information. Review of marketing, pp. 153-89.
Sternthal, B. & Craig, C. S., 1982. Consumer Behavior: An Information Processing Perspective.
Thaller, R. & Sunstein, C., 2009. Nudge Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness. 2nd ed. London: Penguin Books Ltd..
Tracy, A. P. & Oskamp, S., 1983-1984. Relationships Among Ecologically Responsible Behaviors. Joutnsl Environmental Systems, pp. 115-126.
Wagner, S. S., 2002. Understanfing Green Consumer Behaviour. A qualitative cognitive approach. 2nd ed. New York: Taylor&Francis.
Wilkie, W. L. & Pessemier, E. A., 1973. Issues in Marketing's Use of Multi-Attribute Attitude Models. Journal of Marketing Research, pp. 428-441.
World Business Council for Sustainable Development, 2008. Sustainable Consumption Facts and Trends, Switzerland: Atar Roto Presse SA.
Wright, P. L., 1974. The harassed decision maker: Time pressures, distractions, and the use of evidence. Journal of Applied Psychology, pp. 555-561.
Wulfa, K. D. & Odekerken-Schröder, G., 2003. Assessing the impact of a retailer's relationship efforts on consumers’ attitudes and behavior. Journal of
Retailing and Consumer Services, pp. 95-108.

icshge.org
Gas exchange parameters for ornamental species of the genus Peperomia

Ruitz et Pav., grown in a vertical garden under different nutrient
conditions
Shahanova, M.B.,* Anev, S., and Tzvetkova, N.P.
University of Forestry, 10 Kliment Ohridsky Blvd., Sofia 1797, Bulgaria; * mariela.shahanova@mail.bg
Abstract—Determination of some indicators of gas exchange is important for establishing the rate of growth of plants and
allows to be assessed their adaptive ability in conditions of soilless growing in vertical gardens. An occurrence of different
degree and type of epiphytism in representatives of genus Peperomia Ruitz et Pav., which are characterized by slower and
particular metabolism, have directed the attention to the members of the genus. For them, as leaf-decorative plants, first of all,
vegetative growth is valuable. For this reason, it is essential to maintain intensive photosynthesis throughout the growing
period. The effect of feeding of young plants of three species of genus Peperomia Ruitz et Pav., grown in interior vertical
gardens, was studied. For the experiment were used fertilizers of different types and concentration. Two types of fertilizer in
two concentrations were used as well as a sample without feeding. The gas exchange was also studied in the substrate-grown
plants. The experiment results will indicate a suitable choice of fertilizer types and concentration to feed plants grown in a
vertical garden.
Keywords—vertical garden, soilless growing, gas exchange, genus Peperomia
I. INTRODUCTION
T HE construction of interior vertical gardens is mainly related to the use of epiphytic and semi-epiphytic tropical species.
The reasons are based primarily in the vertical positioning of the greened planters, the specific substance that replaces the
substrate and the way the roots are attached to it. The methods of plant nutrition and maintenance of the system also determine
the use of epiphytes.
The vegetative growth of leaf-ornamental species (as used in the present work) is valuable. The physiological state of the
plants, providing rapid growth, is essential for the vertical garden as in this type of composition the plants are observed frontally
and the density of the vegetation volume determines its quality. Therefore, it is important to maintain the intensive
photosynthesis throughout the growing period. Di Benedetto pointed that the market value of the tropical leaf-ornamental
plants depends on the growing rate, connected with the indices of their photosynthesis [1]. The latter are also relevant when
assessing the ornamental effect of indoor plant composition. Models for optimization of greenhouse microclimatic conditions
and transition to technological solutions have been developed for some species, aimed at increasing the productivity of flower
production in greenhouses on the basis of physiological studies on their photosynthesis [2].
The examined members of the genus Peperomia Ruitz et Pav. are leaf-ornamental interior plants: Peperomia glabella
(Sw.) A. Dietr., Peperomia magnoliaefolia (Jacg.) Dietr. and Peperomia urocarpa Fisch. &. C. A. Mey. Their main habitats
are damp shady places in forests, river banks and rocks. Most often they exhibit obligatory and facultative type of epiphytism
as they grow on tree branches or half-rotted leaves. They are rarely an atmospheric type of epiphytes. As life forms they are
grass perennial small plants, rarely semi-shrubs. The species grow throughout the year, without a clearly pronounced period
of dormancy, and in secondary communities they are manifested as pioneer species [3]. The anatomical structure of leaves and
physiological analyses demonstrate the C3, C4 and CAM types of photosynthesis and transitions between them [3] [4]. The
members of the genus Peperomia exhibit strong drought resistance which can be explained by the movement (redistribution)
of water between leaves, as well as by the presence of CAM. The dependence of crystal formation and intensity of light, as
well as some ecophysiological reactions to drought in P. magnoliaefolia have been studied [5] [6]. The connection between
the type of photosynthesis and lamina thickness in the genus Peperomia Ruitz et Pav. (CAM and C3) has been determined [7].
A proportional dependence between the thickness of the spongy mesophyll and the intensity of photosynthesis, as well as the
water distribution in tissues as a reaction to drought, have also been determined. The studies concern Peperomia obtusifolia
(L.) A. Dietr. (of С3 type) and Peperomia macrostachya (Vahl) A. Dietr. (CAM type), and regarding Peperomia obtusifolia a
transition from C3 to CAM has been observed under dry conditions. According to Ting most species of the genus Peperomia
Ruitz et Pav. are epiphytes with poorly developed roots and the turgor is maintained by the rainfall. In case of water stress
(drought) they close their stomata during the day and unlock CAM [8]. It has also been determined that the water storage
specialization occurs during the latter stages of leaf development and therefore it is present in mature laminae at the base of
the shoots, while in the top young leaves it is about five times lower. The aquiferous parenchyma tissue decreases in mature
leaves and increases in young leaves in case of water deficiency [9].
II. PURPOSE
The aim of the present study is to determine the dependence between the physiological processes (photosynthesis,
transpiration) in young plants of the species Peperomia glabella (Sw.) A. Dietr., Peperomia magnoliaefolia (Jacg.) Dietr. and
Peperomia urocarpa Fisch. &. C. A. Mey. and the different types and concentrations of products used for plant nutrition in the
conditions of a vertical garden.

icshge.org
III. MATERIALS AND METHODS

The studies were performed on 250 young plants (aged 6 months) of the species Peperomia glabella (Sw.) A. Dietr.,
Peperomia magnoliaefolia (Jacg.) Dietr., Peperomia urocarpa Fisch. &. C. A. Mey., obtained from rooting cuttings on
geotextile (Fibrotex Protex 300 (EsHa) in the conditions of a vertical garden. The plants were leaf nourished once every 7
days with “Lactofol” and “Laksifert” suspension fertilizers in concentrations of 1% and 0,5%. Control without fertilization
was as also set. The results were compared with the parameters of mature plants grown more than 1 year in substrate as potted
plants without external source of nutrition (Table 1). The variants were, as follows:
The content of macro and microelements in both fertilizing products is described in Table 2.
The suspension fertilizers of the “Lactofol” group are biotechnological products. The microelements in them are linked
in lactic acid (lactate) complexes. The “Laksifert” fertilizers are liquid-gel foliar fertilizers, characterised by the optimal ratio
of macroelements, high microelement content and included rapid absorption components /citric acid and vitamin B1/. The
microelements in the “Laksifert” fertilizers are in the form of citrates. Due to the presence of citric acid as a metabolic step in
the Krebs Cycle, the citrate form of microelements is considered to be more readily absorbable.
Three randomly chosen plants within each experimental variant were used for the gas-exchange measurements. Net
photosynthetic rate (An) and transpiration rate (Е) were measured by the Portable photosynthesis system – Li-6400 (Li-Cor
Inc., Lincoln, NE, USA), equipped with an artificially LED-illuminated chamber. During the measurements, the base
environmental conditions were controlled at optimal levels (flow rate = 400 µmol; air temperature = 25 °C; relative air humidity
= 45% and saturated light intensity = 1000 µE) for maximizing gas-exchange. The measurements were taken on one mature
and fully expanded leaf from every three plants per treatment. One Way ANOVA test following by the All pairwise multiple
comparison procedures (Tukey test) were used for tests of significant differences between the means of each experimental
variant. All statistical calculations were performed with specially created visual basic user-defined functions in MS Excel
(Microsoft Corp., Redmond, WA).

On Figure 2 it can be seen that the rate of photosynthesis (An) in Peperomia glabella (Sw.) A. Dietr. varies strongly
as the lowest values (2.43 ± 0.22) are determined in the vertical garden plants, fertilized with Laksifert 0,5%, and the highest
values - 9.93 ±1.07 are obtained from the young plants, nourished with Lactofol 1%. All other fertilizing variants have values,
significantly lower that the control and initial plants and confidently differ from each other.
TABLE I
EXPERIMENT MODEL
№ Species Lactofol Laksifert Control* Initial plants **
(concentr.)* (concentr.)*
1 Peperomia glabella (Sw.) A. Dietr 0,5% 0,5 % 0% 0%

1,0% 1,0 %
2 Peperomia magnoliaefolia (Jacg.) Dietr. 0,5% 0,5 % 0% 0%
1,0% 1,0 %
3 Peperomia urocarpa 0,5% 0,5 % 0% 0%
Fisch. &. C. A. Mey. 1,0% 1,0 %
* Plants in vertical gardens
** Plants grown in substrate
TABLE II
EXPERIMENT MODEL
Product Macroelements weight % Microelements weight % or presence (x)
N P K B Cu Fe Mn Mo Zn
( P2O5) ( K2O)
A 4 5 5 – х х х х х
B 6 4 4 0,3 х – х х х
A – Suspension Fertilizer Laksifert
B – Suspension Fertilizer Lactofol

icshge.org
Figure 1. P. glabella in vertical garden.
16
14
An, µmol CO2 m -2 s-1
12
d
10 f
8 e
6 b
4 a c
2
0
Laxifert, Laxifert, Lactofol Lactofol Control Origin
0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% plants
Variants
Figure 2. P. glabella – rate of photosynthesis (An).
The highest values regarding the transpiration rate (E) are determined for the variants of fertilizing young plants in
vertical gardens with Lactofol 1%. There is no statistically significant difference between this variant and the control where
the highest values of this parameter are obtained - 1.813±0.097. The lowest transpiration intensity is reported for Laksifert
0,5%. (Figure 3)
3
2.5
E, mmol H2O m -2 s-1
d d
2
1.5 e
1 c
b
a
0.5
0
0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% plants
Variants
Figure 3. P. glabella – transpiration rate (E).
The (An) in Peperomia magnoliaefolia (Jacg.) Dietr. varies greatly (Figure 5) and in some variants, there is a threefold
difference: 4.83 ± 0.60 in Lactofol 1% (where unlike Peperomia glabella, the values are the lowest) to the highest value for
the same type of fertilizer but at the lower concentration (0,5%) - 12.7 ±3.77. Only the Lactofol 0,5% variant differs statistically
from the control. There are no statistically significant differences between the control and the initial plant, as well as between
the two concentrations of Laksifert (Figure 5). In general, in this species, the rate of photosynthesis is higher which can be
explained by the greater thickness of the lamina and the thickness of the spongy mesophyll [7]. Most likely the reduced stomatal
conductivity, aimed at saving water (important for the CAM plants), leads to the variation of these indices.

icshge.org
Figure 4. P. magnoliaefolia in vertical garden.
16
b
14
12
acd
10 d
8 a a
6 c
4
2
0
0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% plants
Variants
Figure 5. P. magnoliaefolia – rate of photosynthesis (An).
Regarding the (E) of this species, the control has the highest value of 1.97±1.81 and differs statistically from the variants
with fertilized plants and initial plants (Figure 6). The lowest values are determined for both concentrations of Lactofol and
Laksifert 1% without statistically proven differences. There are no such differences also between Laksifert 1% and the initial
plants. The non-fertilized plants may possibly experience a shortage of mineral substances and this leads to intensive water
exchange in order to supply the necessary minerals. The plants in all examined fertilization variants are more fully stocked
with mineral salts and save water more efficiently.
3
c
2.5
1.5
1
b b
0.5 a a a
0
0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% plants
Variants
Figure 6. P. magnoliaefolia – transpiration rate (E).
The variation ranges of the (An) in Peperomia urocarpa Fisch. &. C. A. Mey is from 5.75 ± 0.14 (in Laksifert 0,5%) to
8.15±0.57 and is the smallest from all three studied species. The highest values are determined for the control but they do not
confidently differ from the Lactofol variants (0,5% and 1%). (Figure 8)

icshge.org
Figure 7. P. urocarpa in vertical garden.
16
14
12
10 c c
b bc b
8 a
6
4
2
0
0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% plants
Variants
Figure 8. P. urocarpa – rate of photosynthesis (An).
Comparable values of the E are also reported at the low concentrations of both fertilizers (Laksifert and Lactofol - 0,5%).
These are the highest values which confidently differ from the others. The values obtained at the high concentrations (Laksifert
and Lactofol – 1%) and the control are equal, and the lowest indices are also reported for the mature (initial) plants. Apparently,
there is no need to increase the intensity of water exchange of the non-fertilized plants, which leads to similar levels of gas
exchange (photosynthesis and transpiration). (Figure 9)
2.5
1.5
1 a
a
b b b
0.5 c
0
0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% plants
Variants
Figure 9. P. urocarpa – transpiration rate (E).
According to Zotz phosphorus (P) is the limiting factor for the epiphytic habitat (rather than the nitrogen (N), so the plants
are adapted to nutrition poor in phosphorus [10]. On the other hand, the qualitative phosphorus nutrition of plants in vertical
gardens is of great importance due to the following two reasons – it increases the cold resistance of the plants (at low

icshge.org
temperature and permanent humidity) as well as the resistance to pests and diseases. The highest results for the physiological
indices under comfort conditions are determined when fertilizing with Lactofol (at 1% concentration) which contains a higher
amount of phosphorus (P) than the other studied product.
V. CONCLUSION
Significant differences between the plants of the species Peperomia Ruitz et Pav. are determined regarding the intensity
of photosynthesis. These are species with a certain degree of succulence and presence of CAM. Perhaps the differences in the
current water content of tissues contribute to the great differences between the values of this parameter. The highest value of
photosynthesis intensity (12.7 μmol(СО2).m-².s-ˡ) is determined in Peperomia magnoliaefolia (Jacg.) Dietr which is related to
the mesophyll thickness in leaf lamina. In most species, the highest values of this parameter are determined for Lactofol 1%.
In all species the obtained values of transpiration intensity of the control are higher than the variants with fertilization or
the second largest (Peperomia urocarpa Fisch. &. C. A. Mey). The probable cause is the lack of new growth and formation of
new leaves in the control, and the measurements are made in mature leaves with a stable photosynthetic apparatus. Statistically
proven difference between the different species is determined regarding the transpiration. This difference disappears in the
various nutrition variants and no difference is determined in the case of Laksifert 1%. The high levels of daytime transpiration
in plants with CAM metabolism are probably a sign of mineral deficiency. The CAM plants normally close the stomata during
the day but in case of mineral shortage they can compromise with water saving (especially when it is not a limiting factor, as
in the case of the vertical garden) and open the stomata during daytime. This accounts for the parallel occurrence of C4 and
CAM.
No definitive conclusion about the effectiveness of nutrition in the different studied variants can be drawn from the
obtained results. With regards to the low values of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), due to the greenhouse shading,
it can be concluded that the variation range of the parameter intensity of photosynthesis is within the limits for shade-tolerant
grass plants, especially when taking into consideration that the measurements were made on young leafs with still unstable
photosynthetic apparatus.
No significant impact on the gas exchange indices are determined for the studied concentrations of nutrition fertilizers
which indicates that these norms provide sufficient physiological comfort for the CAM plants in order to adequately save water
and keep the stomata closure during the daytime.
REFERENCES
[1] Di Benedetto A., J. Molinari, C. Boschi, D. Benedicto, M. Cerrotta, G. Cerrotta, 2006. Estimating Crop Productivity for Five Ornamental Foliage
Plants. International Journal of Agricultural Research, 1: 522-533.
[2] Kim H.S., J.H. Lieth. A Coupled Model of Photosynthesis, Stomatal Conductance and Transpiration for a Rose Leaf (Rosa hybrida L.) Ann Bot
(2003) 91 (7): 771-781.
[3] Luttge U. 1989. Vascular plants as epiphytes. Evolution and ecophysiology. Ecological Studies 76, Springer Verlag: 167-197 (270 p.)
[4] Herrera A., M. D. Fernández, Taisma M. A. 2000. Effects of Drought on CAM and Water Relations in Plants of Peperomia carnevalii. Annals of
Botany 86 (3): 511-517.
[5] Kuo-Huang L.L., Ku M.S.B., Franceschi V.R. 2007. Correlations between calcium oxalate crystals and photosynthetic activities in palisade cells of
shade-adapted Peperomia glabella. Botanical studies 48 (2): 155-164.
[6] Schmidt, J. Kaiser W.M. 1987. Response of the succulent leaves of Peperomia-magnoliaefolia to dehydration - water relations and solute movement
in chlorenchyma and hydrenchyma plant physiology 83(1): 190-194.
[7] Fondom N.Y, Castro-Nava S., Huerta A.J. 2009 Seasonal variation in photosynthesis and carbon balance under natural conditions in two Peperomia
species that differ with respect to leaf anatomy. The Journal of the Torrey Botanical Society, Volume: 136, Issue: 1, Publisher: Torrey Botanical
Society, Pages: 57-69
[8] Ting IP, Bates L, Sternberg LO, Deniro MJ.,1985, Physiological and isotopic aspects of photosynthesis in Peperomia,
http://www.plantphysiol.org/content/78/2/246.long
[9] Gay A., R. Moore, 1993, Development of Chlorenchyma and Window Tissues in Leaves of Peperomia columella, Annals of Botany, Volume 71,
Issue 2, Pages 141–146
[10] Zotz G. 2004. The resorption of phosphorous is greater than that of nitrogen in senescing leaves of vascular epiphytes from lowland Panama. Journal
of tropical ecology 20: 693-696.

icshge.org
Urban Sustainability Indices to Green Infrastructure

Pérez- Pérez, M.
Technological University Indoamerica, Bolívar 20-35, Ambato, Ecuador; marinaperez@uti.edu.ec
Abstract—The current Latin American city seeks order, recovering its identity and life in community through activities in its
urban green public spaces. The intention of the administrative management on the recovery of these spaces coexists with the
neglect of the urban quality that they have, leading to the abandonment of the mimes. Purpose that defines the principles of
green infrastructure in the Latin American city. The case study is Ambato, sustainable intermediate city, according to the IDB
in its update of the CIS program of 2017; it is also a resilient city that is changing its urban profile, because of its social habit.
The proposal is the product of the research project "Sustainable criteria of urban-architectural intervention of public spaces,
according to their urban climate, level of appropriation and social habitat, between the avenues Guaytambos, National Unity,
Del Rey, Quiz-Quiz and Manuela Saenz, of Ambato". Applies a qualitative and quantitative methodology, based on
quantitative indicators, analyzes the current state of urban green public spaces, and works as a meeting point between citizens,
the level of ownership or absence they present. The levels of appropriation and absence that public spaces present, serve the
three-dimensional model of sustainable development, contemplates the three basic dimensions. The social sphere acquires
relevance due to the role of the user in the appropriation of public space; economic, environmental and cultural; define best
practices to increase their level of ownership. The results allow us to understand the abandonment process, identify the
predominant needs of users of public spaces and promote the appropriation through criteria of architectural and urban design
of urban green public spaces in the Andean city of Ecuador, the green infrastructure of the cities Latin American.
Keywords—public space, urban infrastructure, urban sustainability
I. INFRASTRUCTURE IN “THE CURRENT CITY”
T HE definition of the current city is in constant evolution in the socioeconomic, political and environmental aspects, being
necessary to re-think this current city with the attribute of sustainable. When this city is confronted, as an urban sprawl
that includes architecture and services, the challenge of sustainability issues involves generation, demand and consumption of
general uses, energy, industry, mobility and transport. The current city, as a limited and stable site, loses importance in the
face of the urban way of life, which organizes and orders space without distinction, with relationships that transcend the
physical space of the city (López-Marcos, 2015). Hence, architecture, of the current sustainable city, goes beyond buildings.
It transcends the walls of dwellings and interior uses. Facing an obstacle every day. Obstacle greater than this internal
functioning, until reaching the incursion in the mitigation of climate change. It is carried out by the intrinsic activities of the
construction sector and of that accelerated urbanization (Bazant, 2010), claiming initiatives involved in viable urban solutions,
integral in the architecture and in the services that support its use and enjoyment. In this area, the public space is responsible
for the organization, function and what the city, is as an urban site. It leads to the humanization of public space with
infrastructures allowing social integration (Cuervo Calle & Herrán Cuartas, 2013). This public space is fundamental to
complement the habitability, begun intra walls, in which the complementary activities of the other spaces, transforming the
public space as a physical, functional and sociocultural extension of what happens inside a private space (Torres-Pérez, et al.,
2016). The traditional infrastructures, known as gray infrastructures (Table 1) important for human health and well-being.
TABLE I
TYPES OF TRANSFER INFRASTRUCTURE / GRAY INFRASTRUCTURE
Infrastructure Types
Transport Roads, bridges, road signs, cars, etc.
Communications Telephones, data, television, radio, internet.
Drinking water Wells, reservoirs, water pipes, etc.
Energy generation Dams, hydroelectric plants, transmission lines, transformers, etc.
Source: Austin, 2017
The use of architecture and urban planning as an instrument of urban development, of the configuration of the current
city, generates physical, functional and behavioral changes, where the result of the interaction of levels of space and time is
sustainable. Within the framework of a social sustainability, which seeks to integrate the social condition with the elements of
environmental sustainability, coming to understand the public space, as a "laboratory of sustainability" (Holguín Ávila &
Campos Medina, 2017). Being an example in achievements of the connections between the social inequalities of the city, as
an instrument to eliminate violence in the cities. One sample is Medellin, Colombia, the metamorphosis of the image that it
had in 1992, being one of the most dangerous cities in the world, in 2015 it is a Latin American city as a great laboratory of
architectural and urban interventions, product of those interventions between 2003 and 2007. With an urban development,
which is the search for specific solutions to social problems, which uses strategies as instruments of social integration.
Cities can enhance their sustainability or resilience through spatial land-use planning. Broadly spatial planning is
approaches used largely by the public sector to influence the future distribution of activities in space and takes an ecosystem
approach (Meerow & Newell, 2017), where provides a suite of ecosystem services for the benefit of humans and the natural
environment (Wilson & Piper, 2010) The expansion urban of green infrastructure has emerged as a popular strategy to this

icshge.org
ecosystem-based approach to land-use planning (Lennon & Scott, 2014). When Norman Foster says that "Infrastructure is the
urban glue that unites buildings", it is promoting that buildings include the exterior, infrastructure and public spaces, constant
action of the inclusive city, which leaves aside marginalization. Which favors the integration of an infrastructure and
approaches an integral planning, product of the multidisciplinarity (Henao Villa, et al., 2017) of the design, where the
disciplines used in the design of the city are not only of and for the architecture, discarding the position of the building as a
single element, solve urban problems as a whole.
In this area, the definition of the public, from the privatization of the city, is transformed from that public space and its
importance forces to distinguish the property regime from its spatial and use condition, differentiating the public space from
the space of public property as part of the city. These differentiated expressions about the ownership of public space influence
the distinction between the relationship between public space and public property (Silva, 2011). Similarly, it is a reality that
social groups do not appreciate the value of natural capital; hence, the inclusion of green infrastructures in cities has had a
positive consequence in increasing the overall value of these. Attribution achieved by relating to green infrastructures as a way
to mitigate the ecological footprint of cities, in addition to reducing heat island effects and CO² emissions.
The management and urban planning of green areas and parks has been developed as a fundamental part of urban
development strategies (Flores-Xolocotzi, 2012). In Europe and the USA, the design of green areas is an integral part of urban
development and planning plans. Cities such as Madrid, Barcelona, Paris, London, New York, so diverse evidence that there
is no single process for the planning of green infrastructure, but a series of strategies according to the characteristics and social
needs of each city. Strategies that integrate sustainable actions, which calls for the use of social, environmental, economic and
cultural indicators. Retaking the typology of criteria (García & Guerrero, 2006) to identify sustainability indicators for urban
parks: ten indicators in six categories or criteria.
The policies and practices developed by designers and urban planners in which anthropocentric and ecocentric values are
included within a green infrastructure system as well (Austin, 2017), include habitat, recreation, green spaces and urban
settings.
The European Commission (European Commission, 2014) defines green infrastructure as a strategically planned network
of high quality natural and semi-natural areas with other environmental elements, designed and managed to provide a wide
range of ecosystem services and protect the biodiversity of both settlements rural as urban. It aims to improve the quality of
nature to facilitate multiple and valuable ecosystem goods and services, such as clean water or air. In addition, they can
incorporate both rural and urban, terrestrial or aquatic areas could be part parks, forest areas, rivers, wetlands, green roofs
(Naumann, et al., 2011). Unlike the gray infrastructure, they fulfill varied functions, they are multifunctional, and they are
integrated in the territory and have low energy and maintenance needs. Environmental, social and economic characteristics.
On a technical and economic viability basis green infrastructures to provide solutions to various problems and offer a range of
maximum benefits. The tradition of gray infrastructures due to the inertia in their construction may hinder the implementation
of green infrastructures, for this research, can be necessary and effective approaches.
The theoretical approaches that have influenced during the last decade for the definition of the concept of green
infrastructures, as it understood today, are diverse. Among them landscape ecology, landscape planning, or polarized landscape
theory. The ecology of the landscape, even though it is a discipline with many decades of history, is from the seventies and
eighties when it are deepened in the integration of classical ecology with the theories related to the dynamics of spots and
mosaics, with the theory of disturbances and with the biogeography of islands. From that moment, the ecology of the landscape
takes a course with interest in the structure and dynamics of landscape mosaics and their influence on ecological processes,
incorporating geographic information systems and techniques, computer modeling and spatial analysis (Magdaleno, 2017).
With a development of theories related to the ecological networks and with the structural and functional ecological connectivity
of the territory (Table 2).
TABLE II
COMPARISON OF THE CHARACTERISTIC ATTRIBUTES OF THE GRAY INFRASTRUCTURES VERSUS THOSE OF THE GREEN INFRASTRUCTURES AND THOSE OF THE
INTEGRATED SYSTEMS
Gray infrastructures Green infrastructures Integrated systems
Cost +++ ++ ++
Rigidity +++ + ++
Functionality + +++ ++
Integration + ++ +++
Local /regional impact +++ + ++
Energy need +++ + ++
Tendency to deterioration and obsolete +++ + ++
Adaptation to territorial scales + +++ ++
Source: Magdeleno, 2017
The green infrastructures are studies as an innovative subject, where their research is a response to the need to support
the benefits integrated in green infrastructures in the environmental, social and economic scale and on the optimal procedures
to incorporate multidisciplinary aspects in the quantification and assessment. Green infrastructure is the “infrastructure of
green spaces, water and built systems, e.g. forests, wetlands, parks, green roofs and walls that together can contribute to
ecosystem resilience and human benefits through ecosystem services” (Derkaen L., et al., 2017). It is increasingly recognized
that careful design and implementation of green infrastructure can contribute to climate adaptation (Matthews, et al., 2015).

icshge.org
The concept of green infrastructure has become central in policy documents and as a multifunctional general planning
tool. However, any kind of green infrastructure will not deliver all ecosystems services in any place, not without land use
conflicts, investments and long term operating costs. This calls for a green infrastructure concept linked to actors and mediating
values, with the spatial definitions of infrastructure “green-grey” and “public-private” crucial in green infrastructure location,
design, construction and management (Lindholm, 2017). Moreover, the association with sciences and technologies that have
contributed to its implementation, such as biology, ecology, urban planning (Magdaleno, 2017).
According to the conceptual and methodological foundations for the implementation (Magdaleno, 2017), and considering
some critical aspects that are currently being discussed in the study area, it is possible to propose some initiatives for the
development of green infrastructures, which could be benefit for users.
II. CASE STUDY

The territory of Ecuador through it mountain systems, with three natural regions, costa, sierra and east. At different
altitudes, the coast arrives at the level of the sea, the saw with the highest level the Chimborazo to 6.267 msnm and the East
located in the Amazon region that goes from the 3.353 m to the 300-150 msnm (IGM, 2013). Ambato, 155.80 km., of Quito,
the Ecuador capital, has an area of 1016,454 km2, which equals 29.94% of the province of Tungurahua (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Location of Ambato, case study.
Located in the region sierra at 2.575,00 meters above sea level, is part of the climate Equatorial mesothermal dry (Pourrut,
1983). Between latitude 1° 14’ 32.11’’, longitude 78° 37' 45.23’’. The temperature fluctuates from 13.3 to 14.7 °C variation
given by the irregularity of the terrain, reaching the extremes of 7 to 24°C, relative humidity between 70-80%. According to
the records of the past 10 years, next above, measurements of Tº and RH have been kept without relevant variations. It is
traversed by the Ambato River, which has a length of 26.6 km. The annual water deficit in the area amounts to approximately
1913.35 mm. Its geography is differentiated by the Western mountains, more than half of the surface, dividing it into two
almost equal parts and a high plains area constituted by the Andean alley. Its orography is rugged with a series of hills, hills,
streams and ravines, which considerably limit the existence of broad valleys.

icshge.org
Figure 2. Study area, area of 343.4 hectares.
Is defined an area of study that includes the current downtown and its immediate urban expansion, with an area of 343.4
hectares (Figure 2), in which the green public spaces are 26.5 hectares (Table 3), representing 0.78% of the surface to such a
study.
TABLE III
AREA OF URBAN PUBLIC SPACES
Public Spaces Area (m2)
Dos Culturas 4604,098
Los Sauces 5765,92
Luis A. Martínez 213317,2
Los Quindes 3737,43
La Vicentina 6052,5
La Madre 4419,93
Juan Benigno Vela 3978,45
Juan Montalvo 4593,04
Cevallos 4119,19
Doce de Noviembre 7119,32
Plaza Sucre 2618,07
Neptali Sancho 9078,15
Total area 269403,298
The cities of Latin America present examples of the transformation of public space, closely linked to their historical changes
and modes of production. Where the public space serves to meet the needs of meeting and the development of daily activities,
with the category and signs of social space. In the same way, the real estate boom of these cities, with their housing complexes
and spontaneous shopping areas, changes the sense of social space of the public space, propitiating that the essence of public
space is threatened.
In order that public spaces are sustainable, where the balance of the environment, the culture and the economy of the user,
is not only a common goal if it is present in coordination with the comfort of the user. It is intended that each space built in
the public space has a second nature, and be an integral part of the surrounding built environment. Where the initiatives to
incorporate green infrastructures center in the benefit of the community, from which it looks for to settle the social and
territorial inequalities.
As a factor to promote a change in the urban habitat, with an energy reduction reactivating public spaces with the

icshge.org
perspective of physical, biological, economic, social, cultural, environmental, political and administrative components, with
priority perspectives in the local culture. And under the premise of creating a green infrastructure, focused on interventions of
public spaces, responds to three key elements -climate change, energy efficiency and quality of life- to achieve the reduction
of environmental costs and the admissible limits of the economy.
From the beginning of the 21st century, dollarization represented the gradual change of economic policy in Ecuador,
which is evident from the urban centers which have been conurbated by increasing their urban areas, overcoming the widening
of the peri-urban, endangering the identity of the intermediate city. In this sense, the idea that the green infrastructure as a
theme of design with the environment and based on good living is enhanced. Being that the green infrastructures originated by
the remodeling of public spaces improve the vitality indexes, the identity of its users and the urban connectivity. In this sense,
indicators are defined to identify relevant urban public spaces to intervene to generate green infrastructures, as an ordered set
of variables whose objective is to provide a totalizing vision with respect to the predominant interests related to the urban
reality in question (Rueda, 2013). Criteria based on the four axes of sustainability, economy, society, environment and culture.
The studies carried out, up to now, it are defined by the sustainability variables; the existing infrastructures in relation to
the public spaces represent a favorable data for the case study as shown below (Table 4).
TABLE IV
SUSTAINABILITY INDICES TO URBAN PUBLIC SPACE
Indices Montalvo Cevallos Luis A. Martinez La Madre 12 de noviembre
Bolívar Av. Fermín Cevallos ,

Sucre Joaquín Lalama, Av. 12 de noviembre,
Location Av. Rodrigo Pachano. Pizarro y Orellana.
Montalvo Luis A Martínez y Mera y Martínez
Castillo Sucre
Cathedral
Bolívar School, Ernesto Alban Theater
Ex Municipality of
Emperor Hotel, Eucalyptus trees, Homes of 2 and 3 Homes of 3 to 5 levels
Ambato
Environment Pichincha Bank, local flowers, fruit levels. and commercial
Provincial Council
Providencia School, trees, etc. Neighborhood buildings.
The Library of Ambato
Mary Carmen Hotel. commerce.
The Portal house.
Central Park.
Commemorative of an
Influence in the The bridge, the Meeting point for
Central Park. illustrious person of Pizarro Street
urban sprawl ecological path. nearby cities.
the city, political
historian.
San Antonio area
Downtown and the Downtown and Rodrigo Pachano 12th of de November
Route of influence connected with health
cathedral. Cevallos Avenue. Avenue. Avenue.
centers.
20 seats Childish games
34 seats
4 water source Exercise machines 20 Seats
4 bus stops
8 Lanterns Relaxation place 7 inside 15 seats
Urban equipment Letters de la Word:
6 Trash Suspension bridge 13 in the 1 water source
AMBATO
Monument Trash neighborhood areas.
Monuments.
Public toilets Public toilets
Irrigation with water
Water from the Ambato Reuse water from the
Watering twice a week. Watering once a week. Watering the plants.
management River for crops and source.
baths.
The trash cans fill up In the waste
Fines for throwing Cleaning every The trashcans that are
Waste fast and the management, the
garbage and has afternoon and trash not used, garbage
management maintenance staff municipal cleaning
cleaning staff. cans. disposed of in sewers.
cleans them. staff cleans.
Security is by the
Insecurity and
municipal police, at Insecurity motivated Meeting point on the
Risk management Evacuation route. between weeks is
night it closes from 8 by street vendors. sports field.
desolate.
pm to 7 am.
The Cevallos avenue Internal pedestrian and Surrounding
Bolívar street accesses Through the streets
Communication with more affluence in vehicular routes are communication with
it accessed by the north Benalcazar, Pizarro,
channels the city and Sucre highly used. information on the
of the city. Orellana.
street. care of green areas.
Wide paths to walk Places for users to
with tranquility. circulate without Mobilization walking Large with large
Mobility No parking. Cars can not park difficulty both or driving in the park sidewalks and wide
because there is a lot walking and in their that has wide streets. access roads.
of traffic. car.
Valued by the Benches for the rest of Camineries, energy Remodeled several
Remodeled in 1950
Urban space scale Ambateña citizenship people while waiting light plant and times due to
and 2010.
and place of rest. for the bus. lookout. vandalism.
Relaxation and
Relaxation and fun are
socialization are the Monument that
Typology of the characteristic of the Patriotic and civic
Very visited. attractions, decorated represents the family
urban image. nature that surrounds symbol of Ambato.
with flowers and as a unit.
it.
paintings.

icshge.org
Illuminated with
Although it is
Monumental artificial Artificial lighting Electric power plant automated sensors for
Energy efficiency. illuminated, it is
lighting. from 6 pm to 6 am. without operation. on and off, from 6 pm
unsafe for night use.
to 6 am.
Secure by the four
accesses, there are walls Inclusive access for Barrier of weeds Clinics, local,
Universal Accesses, without
and doors. No stairs, so people with plants and trees free commercial and few
accessibility. ramps.
disabled people can disabilities. access. homes in the area.
move.
Commercial buildings 30 dwellings that use

Number of Public and private 9 abandoned houses 10 homes with
and a public public space on
housing benefited buildings around. around. commercial premises.
institution. weekends
Before it was square

Origin and Built in the year of August 10. Black Bridge or Built in 1820 as a
Built in 1938
evolution 1980. In the 40s, it is Jaramillo Bridge. meeting point.
modified.
Profitable with
Relationship with Profitable and safe for
offices, commercial Recreation and sports Without commercial
the current real people's rest. Historical monuments.
premises and two activities. premises.
estate activity.
hotels.
Source: Pérez-Pérez, 2016
III. COMFORT, USE AND ENJOYMENT OF PUBLIC SPACE

The green public urban spaces of Ambato are far from having the value of the playground as a place full of potential for
social integration not only of children, but also for the adults who care for them. Their level of appropriation is different, to
the space where users relate to the city and the rest of society, staying in spaces of relationships with very close peers. The 56
% of the total generation of energy in South America corresponds to hydroelectric power plants, 2% to nuclear power plants
and the rest to conventional thermal and geothermal generation. The main source of renewable electric power generation in all
regions of South America is hydroelectric power. Almost 90% of power generation comes from this type of power plant (De
Venanzi, 2014). The percentage of electricity generated from alternative energies area: 4.5% wind, solar and geothermal, 6%
thermal.
In these public spaces, the disposition and materiality of the elements condition the consistency and quality of the air.
Defining the transformation of the city of Ambato. In an equation that joins structure and spatial materiality, which allows to
identify a map of spatial densities (Pérez-Herreras, 2012).
The green infrastructure has become a tool for resilient cities in order to contribute to the conservation of biodiversity and
benefit the populations. The design, implementation and profitability of green infrastructure projects. The results of this
research, given the nature and relevance of the topic, will contribute to the political strategy on green infrastructure. The Green
Infrastructure Spatial Planning model, a multi-criteria approach that integrates six benefits: 1)storm water management;
2)social vulnerability; 3)green space; 4)air quality; 5)urban heat island amelioration; and 6)landscape connectivity (Meerow
& Newell, 2017), where the nature increasingly fragmented by urban settlements, the political strategies on green infrastructure
aim to reduce this problem and reconnect fragmented natural areas, maintain healthy ecosystems and restore damaged habitats
(Magdaleno, 2017), as well as provide solutions to adaptation to climate change.
The green infrastructure policy encourages the planning of natural areas to provide biodiversity conservation and
ecosystem services for human well-being. Little is known about the preferences of residents, and how they relate to green
infrastructure. The objective of this study is to identify and locate this type of relationship, when green infrastructure.
This project aims to develop a strategy for improving the green infrastructure in terms of its design, for example, nature
restoration, alluvial floodplain management, sustainable urban drainage systems or cooling systems with green spaces,
improving retention and purification of natural water through reforestation, wetland restoration or soil management.
For which 300 residents interviewed, first to identify the importance for their personal well-being that they offer in the
conurbated zones of the public spaces in the case of study. Secondly, to define the inclusion of green infrastructure in the
planning, we have identified and located the infrastructures. The majority of respondents associated their well-being with the
security. The proportion of each type on average 3.5%.
Management strategies needed for green infrastructures: maintenance, their structure and function of natural ecosystems;
and the diversification of the current inclusive management approach (Table 5).The integration of urban green infrastructure
and it is value for climate adaptation, are solutions to strengthen local adaptation and increase his resilience through planning
to adaptation at the impact of climate change.
IV. CONCLUSIONS
The management and planning of urban green areas gradually incorporated an ecological vision, which has led, in recent
years, to a three-dimensional perspective of sustainable development that requires an integral consideration of social, economic
and environmental aspects.

icshge.org
TABLE V
ACTIONS FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF GREEN INFRASTRUCTURES
Objective Action
Promote the improvement of sanitation infrastructures and purification of nuclei not included in the A. Water purification in the Ambato river.
Territorial arrangement planning.
Promote the development of plans and programs for the restoration of transitional waters and coastal B. Riverside corridors in the river.
areas, contributing to a balance and maintaining spaces of special interest for conservation.
Promote the adoption of urban and peri-urban design techniques that mitigate the degradation of the C. Renaturing of the urban drainage network
Ambato River and that provide a wide range of functions and environmental services. through bioengineering techniques.
Ecology and economics provide indicators of ecological footprint, green surface, biodiversity, carbon capture, oxygen
supply, etc. Indicators of importance to assess the environmental importance of urban green areas; they are even the sustenance
of one of the indicators of quality of life most used in urban planning: the 9 m2 recommended by OMS. Considering a classic
economic vision of sustainability, environmental economics provides economic values of environmental services of green
areas without a market price; values that are useful in the benefits-costs for decision-making in the use of land in urban areas.
From a social perspective, sustainability includes citizen participation, gender equity and social inclusion, hence the utility of
knowing citizens' perception of urban green areas.
From the integral approach of sustainable development, citizen participation and social inclusion, from the social
dimension, are fundamental to achieve governance processes aimed at covering the recreational social demand in the current
cities.
The analysis and discussion of green management and planning processes, considering sustainable development,
establishes that Latin American local governments.
The systematization of the data has allowed obtaining a vision, of the key performance, of the gray infrastructures in the
sustainable function of the urban green public spaces of Ambato, closing a partial cycle of the investigation that looks like
final objective the definition of urban criteria architectural for sustainable public spaces.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This article is the product of research "Sustainable criteria of architectonic spaces public intervention project, according to its
urban climate, level of appropriation and Social Habitat, between the avenues Guaytambos, Unidad Nacional, Del Rey, Quiz
- Quiz y Manuela Saenz, of Ambato" (UTI-CITEHS-PI-03 Territory Livability and Sustainability Research Center). Special
thanks to Carlos Campo Verde, which has made the delimitation of the site map.
REFERENCES
Austin, G., 2017. Infraestructura Verde para la Planeación del Paisaje, Interacción humana y sistemas naturales.. México: Trillas.
Bazant, J., 2010. Expansión urbana incontrolada y paradigmas de la planeación urbana. Espacio Abierto Cuaderno Venezolano de Sociología, 19(3), pp.
475-503.
Cuervo Calle, J. J. & Herrán Cuartas, C., 2013. La Casa en el Parque. Cuadernos de Vivienda y Urbanismo, 6(12), pp. 228-247.
De Venanzi, A., 2014. Gasto Público social y las inversiones en infraestructura para el desarrollo (2000-2010). Revista Venezolana de Análisis de
Coyuntura, XX(1), pp. 71-94.
Derkaen L., M., Teeffelen, A. J. A. v. & Verburg, P. H., 2017. Green infrastructure for urban climate adaptation: How do residents’ views on climate
impacts and green infrastructure shape adaptation preferences?. Landscape and Urban Planning, Issue 157, pp. 106-130.
European Commission, 2014. EU policy document on Nature Water Retention Measures.. Bruselas, Comision Europea.: By the Drafting team of the WFD
CIS working Group Programme of Measures (WG PoM).
Flores-Xolocotzi, R., 2012. Incorporando desarrollo sustentable y gobernanza a la gestión y planificación de áreas verdes urbanas.. Frontera Norte, 24(48),
pp. 165 - 190.
García, S. & Guerrero, M., 2006. Indicadores ambientales en la gestión de espacios verdes. El parque Cerro La Movediza. Tandil, Argentina. Revosta de
Geografía Norte Grande, 1(35), pp. 45 - 57.
Henao Villa, C. F. y otros, 2017. Multidisciplinariedad, interdisciplinariedad y transdisciplinariedad en la formación para la investigación en ingeniería.
Revista Lasallista de Investigación, 14(1), pp. 179-197.
Holguín Ávila, R. & Campos Medina, L., 2017. Afectos, representaciones y prácticas en la construcción de la sustentabilidad de un parque urbano..
Contexto, XI (15).
IGM, I. G. M., 2013. Contexto históricos y políticos generales: atlas de la República del Ecuador.. s.l.:Instituto Geográfico Militar..
Lennon, M. & Scott, M., 2014. Delivering ecosystems services via spatial planning: reviewing the possibilities and implications of a green infrastructure
approach. Town Planning Review, 85(5), pp. 563-587.
Lindholm, G., 2017. The Implementation of Green Infrastructure: Relating a General Concept to Context and Site. Sustainability, 9(4).
López-Marcos, M., 2015. Anti-Ciudad como infraestructura. El sistema lineal continuo de Oskar Hansen. Proyecto Progreso Arquitectura, VI(13), pp. 44-
54.

icshge.org
Magdaleno, F., 2017. De la infraestructura gris a la verde.. En: Libro blanco de la economía del agua. s.l.:McGraw-Hill, pp. 181 - 196.
Matthews, T., Lo, A. Y. & Byrne, J. A., 2015. Reconceptualizing green infrastructure for climate change adaptation: Barriers to adoption and drivers for
uptake by spatial planners. Landscape and Urban Planning, Volumen 138, pp. 155-163.
Meerow, S. & Newell, J. P., 2017. Spatial planning for multifunctional green infrastructure: Growing resilience in Detroit.. Landscape and Urban Planning,
Volumen 159, pp. 62-75.
Naumann, S. y otros, 2011. Design, implementation and cost elements of Green Infrastructure projects. Final report to the European Commission, DG
Environment, Contract no. 070307/2010/577182/ETU/F.1,, s.l.: Ecologic institute and GHK Consulting..
Pérez-Herreras, J., 2012. Nuevas Especies de Espacios. ARQ (Santiago), Issue 82, pp. 30-37.
Pérez-Pérez, M., 2016. Indicadores para la definición de centros urbanos con espacios públicos sostenibles.. En: ECOINVOLÚCRATE en Arquitectura
Sostenible. s.l.:eumed.net, pp. 144-159.
Pourrut, P., 1983. Los climas del Ecuador: fundamentos explicativos.. s.l.:CEDING.
Rueda, S., 2013. Modelo e indicadores para ciudades más sostenibles.. Fundación Fórum ambiental y Departamento de Medio Ambiente. ed. Barcelona,
España: Generalita de Catalunya.
Silva, C., 2011. Espacio Público informal apreciaciones sobre la infraestructura y los espacios de uso colectivo en el campamento de Pudeto Bajo de Ancud.
Arquitectura del Sur, Issue 39, pp. 72-85.
Torres-Pérez, M. E., Arana-López, G. & Fernández Martínez, Y., 2016. La calle y la vivienda: relaciones de espacio. pp. 31-53.
Wilson, E. & Piper, J., 2010. Spatial planning and climate change. s.l.:Routledge.

icshge.org
Construction of ‘living’ snow fences along highways in Bulgaria

Lazarov, M., and Shahanov, V.
University of Forestry, 10 Kliment Ohridsky Blvd., Sofia 1797, Bulgaria; martin280495@abv.bg (M.L.);
veshaha@abv.bg (V.S.)
Abstract—The advantages of ‘living’ snow fences over the other snow drift constructions are well known. In order to function properly
these barriers should be planned and designed correctly. The current study concerns the construction of living snow fences in Bulgaria. To
achieve this purpose methodology for constructing snow barriers made of plants are explored. Common mistakes and factors concerning
their building are described as well. The experience in Bulgaria related to wind and snow protection is studied. Based on the study, solution
for ‘living’ snow fence along the Trakia Highway is proposed for an area where snowfall causes the biggest problems nationwide.
Keywords—snow protection, ‘living’ fences, transport infrastructure
I. PURPOSE
P LANNING and designing ‘living’ snow fences (LSF) along highways on the territory of Bulgaria is the goal of the current
study. Developing a proposal for snow protection barriers at a specific location would help to a better understanding of the
essence of such landscape plans and acquiring knowledge in the field of landscape planning. For this purpose the experience
in building LSF is studied, the conditions in the developed territory are analyzed, and specific design solutions are made.
II. BACKGROUND AND SIGNIFICANCE

Snow drifting control along roads started during the first half of XX century [1]. Anti-drifting measures are the following:
ditches construction; structural snow fences; and LSFs [2]. When conditions are appropriate, LSF could be applied. ‘Living’
fences are built of plants – trees, shrubs, native plants and agricultural crops. Plantings are used as a windbreak designed to
keep blowing and drifting snow off roadways and to improve the transportation efficiency and safety [3]. LSFs have various
benefits – social, economic, environmental and aesthetic. Appling LSF improves driver visibility and road surface conditions.
It has the potential to lower costs of road maintenance as well as accidents attributed to blowing and drifting snow [3]. The
environmental issues are additional habitat for wildlife, carbon emission reduction during road maintenance, a source of
renewable energy if living fences are planted and managed as biomass for energy [3]. After the mid of XX century the snow
fences are explored in another way – as means of increasing water yield from windswept areas [1].
The snow fences work as they reduce the wind speed. This allows the snow particles to fall on the ground. Because the
speed decreases on both sides of the barrier snow accumulation will appear on either side as well. However most of the snow
drifts occur on the downwind side of the porous snow fence [4]. The author claims that preferred fence permeability is 40-50
%.
Common mistakes in LSF construction are improper design and placement [4]. The author stresses that fence design
should comply with the amount of snow it need to hold and that fence placement closer to the road could make bigger snow
drifts over the road. Deeper drifts on the road happened when fence is placed close to the embankment shoulder as well.
This problem is observed in a completed project for one of the most problematic sections of Trakia Highway [5]. As can
be seen from the picture, the planting of vegetation is quite close to the road and it is on the embankment shoulder, Figure 1.
Figure 1. Living snow fence construction, 2017, Trakia Highway. Source: Ministry of Regional Development and Public Works

icshge.org
The improper location of the plant barrier and the construction of the road section in an excavation, in addition, led in the
beginning of 2018 again to snowdrifts blocking the highway traffic for days. Although it was an experimentally constructed
barrier, not taking into account site conditions and requirements for barrier placement, the spent money is not justifiable.
III. METHOD
For the amount of snow estimate a method described by Tabler in his Snow Fence Guide [4] is used. The calculation is
based on two parameters – “the distance (fetch) within which the wind can pick up snow and deposit it on the road, and the
amount of relocated precipitation”. The distance is no more than 6 km and is measured to the next obstacle (deep gullies,
stream channels, trees, ice pressure ridges, and open water) in the upwind direction. The amount of relocated precipitation (in
tones/m) is 70 % of the 10 % annual snowfall. For instance, when the fetch is 6 km and the annual snowfall is 1000 mm, the
amount of relocated precipitation will be 1000 x 10 % x 70 % = 70 mm. According to Figure 2, the estimated snow transport
is approximately 110 tones/m.
Figure 2. Snow transport estimate [4].
The next step is to estimate the fence height. It depends on the amount of snow volume witch need to be stored. For
example, a 3 m tall fence is needed in order to store 110 tones/m of snow, Figure 3.
Figure 3. Fence height estimate [4].
On the third step the orientation, length and distance of the fence to the road should be defined. The fence orientation
need to be perpendicular to the prevailing wind as could departures up to 20 degrees [4]. The fence length should exceed the

icshge.org
problematic place and this additional length could be estimated in two ways. It should be equal to 20 times the fence height
[4] or equal to the downwind end of the protected area [6]. The minimal distance from the road is 30 [6] to 35 [4] times the
fence height. When the fence is made of trees Tabler suggests that the setback distance could be reduced to 15 times the height
of the plants in their maturity. Otherwise, if fence is made of fast-growing shrubs having mature height of 1,8-2,4 m the
distance should remain 30-35 times the plants height, i.e. 60-70 m.
At last the fence inner structure should be designed. As mentioned above the barrier has to be 40-50 % permeable. This
could be achieved by a few rows of trees or shrubs. When plantings have bigger width, e.g. 60 m, they act as solid barrier [6].
In this case Tabler points out that more snow deposit will accrue on the upwind side and the amount of snow drift on the
downwind side will be restricted to 5 times the barrier height.
IV. RESULTS
The described methodology is applied for the experimental section on Trakia Highway with a length of 300 m. Snowfall,
wind direction and speed data, available at [7] for the nearest town Karnobat, are used in order to determine the correct
parameters of the designed LSF. During winter the general wind direction is the northern. The strongest average wind – at 14,5
km/h, is on February. The average snowfall for the same month rarely exceeds 250 mm. For the current location the fetch is
more than 6 km, the relief is relatively flat, and the road section is oriented east-west.
Taking into account all the data the proposed LSF should has the following characteristics:
• snow transport – 250 x 10 % x70 % =17,5 tones/m;
• fence height – 1,5-2 m;
• setback – about 60 m;
• orientation – parallel to the road, from the north;
• length – 300 m plus 30-40 m on each side or total length of 360-380 m.
V. CONCLUSION
The proposed LSF responds to the specific climatic conditions - the amount of snowfall, the direction and speed of the
prevailing winds during the winter season. The proposal is also in line with the basic rules for placement, orientation and
density of snow-protecting barriers. Clarifying previous experience on the one hand and taking account of environmental
factors and design requirements on the other give reason to be assumed that if such LSFs are constructed, they will contribute
to the sustainability of the landscape, increasing the ecological and economic benefits, as well as improving the safety of
highway travelers.
REFERENCES
[1] R. Tabler, D. Veal, “Effect of Snow Fence Height on Wind Speed”, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 1971, 16:4, p. 49-56.
[2] Anti-drifting measures [Online], Available: http://www.dot.state.mn.us/environment/livingsnowfence/antidrifting.html
[3] G. Wyatt, D. Zamora, D. Smith, S. Schroder, D. Paudel, J. Knight, D. Kilberg, D. Current, D. Gullickson, S. Taff, “Economic and Environmental
Costs and Benefits of Living Snow Fences: Safety, Mobility, and Transportation Authority Benefits, Farmer Costs, and Carbon Impacts”, Research
Project Final Report, 2012, University of Minnesota Extension.
[4] R. Tabler, Snow Fence Guide, 1991.
[5] 700 cypresses will keep from snowy drifts “Trakia” Highway between Burgas and Karnobat, (2017, November 04), [Online], Available:
https://www.mrrb.bg/bg/700-kiparisa-ste-pazyat-ot-snegonavyavaniya-uchastuk-ot-am-trakiya-mejdu-burgas-i-karnobat/
[6] R. Tabler, Controlling Blowing and Drifting Snow with Snow Fences and Road Design, Final Report for TRS, 2003.
[7] Average weather in Karnobat Bulgaria, [Online], Available: https://weatherspark.com/y/93022/Average-Weather-in-Karnobat-Bulgaria-Year-Round

icshge.org
Green infrastructure potential evaluation using UAS and optical imagery

indices
Perc, M.N.
Faculty of Civil Engineering, Transportation Engineering and Architecture, University of Maribor, Slovenia;
matjaz.nekrep@um.si
Abstract—As climate changes are an undouble fact and we are faced with too much water and at the same time with water
scarcity as result of pronounced changes at the seasonal level (decrease of precipitation in the summer and increase in winter)
which are especially alarming. Urban green areas and green infrastructure are becoming of greater importance. We are using
UAS and RGB imagery to detect urban green areas. We calculate and compare different RGB based indices for that purpose.
Keywords—urban green areas, green infrastructure, remote sensing, GLI, photogrammetry, UAS, UAV
I. INTRODUCTION
T HE predicted changes in climate extremes, among others, point to substantial warming in temperature extremes by the
end of the 21st century and to the likelihood that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall
from heavy falls is increasing (Field et al., 2012). The simulations of climate scenarios for Slovenia until the end of the 21st
century show a significant increase in the average annual temperature for the whole country in all seasons and the
intensification of precipitation changes, with pronounced changes at the seasonal level (decrease of precipitation in the summer
and increase in winter) (Bertalanič et al., 2017). The challenges associated with extreme climate events are numerous and
complex, for instance, ageing urban infrastructure commonly unprepared for extreme storm events. The green urban
infrastructure based on the existing green areas is one of the answers to those challenges.
II. OUR CASE STUDY

A. Area of interest
Our area of interest is southwestern part of Maribor, called Radvanje which lies under the Pohorje hills ski slopes and it
is a place of growing urbanization as prestige location in town (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Area of interest (Radvanje, Maribor, Slovenia), GIS + our UAS orthophoto.
B. Existing stormwater management

The urban area of Radvanje is covered by existing mixed system drainage network which is designed in the past for much
smaller population and less paved areas. In case more and more frequent extreme weather events, stormwater partially floods
area. There is also a tiny river reach in the middle of the area which is highly and inappropriate regulated and used to reduce

icshge.org
runoff flow volume in the drainage system, but its capacity is limited and causes some additional flooding downstream.
III. UAS AS SOURCE OF INSTANT ENVIRONMENTAL DATA

A. Why UAS
Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) or drones are optimal sources of spatial data especially in the case of semi size project
like ours. They are filling the gap between satellite and aerial data on one side and common terrestrial geodetic survey data on
the other side. Even prosumer drones are giving us excellent results under some restrictions (Ground Control Points (GPC),
permissions, weather conditions ...) in a short time and they are affordable.
B. Green area detection using UAS visible imagery
By surveying the site using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to capture simple photographs by preplanned and
autonomous flight and processing visible spectrum orthophotos we can obtain some vegetation indices (VARI, TGA, Green
Leaf Index, etc.) for visual (RGB) data. When we combine color bands from red-green-blue RGB photos, we can get some
graphical indicators to separate green areas (woods, meadows, gardens) from the built environment (buildings, roads, pavement
areas).
C. Results of UAS survey of the location
Using a drone, we captured 446 aerial photos in a mere 25 minutes, and incorporated base imagery from four perimeter
ground- control points (GCP). In that time, we detailed the surveyed area of 43 ha from the height of 90m with the estimated
accuracy of 2.7 cm per pixel. First, we calculated the Green Leaf Index (GLI) (Figure 2) which is an algorithm developed
around wheat that can distinguish living plants from soil and non-living matter in the field.
GLI = (2 x G - R - B) / (2 x G+R+B)
where: G – green, R – red, B – blue
It leans heavily on the green color to calculate the index.
Figure 2. Map of Green Leaf Index of zone 1 and 2.
Therefore, with some more image manipulation and segmentation, it can work well as an urban green indicator (Figure 3 and
Figure 4).

icshge.org
Figure 3. Green areas (green).
Figure 4. Pavement areas (black).
IV. RESULTS
We used UAS to collect data about the area of the interest in a short time. Based on those data we have detected green
and pavement areas as a base for the future planning of the green infrastructure
In future, we will study the impacts of distributed retention and infiltration measures on urban runoff (Jones and Somper,
2014). These measures, i.e. Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS), will reduce the quantity of water that would
otherwise overflow from combined sewer system (CSS) into the recipient and in this way contribute to their quality and prevent
flooding at all (Radinja et al., 2017).
This approach saves us significant time and money and can enhance decision making, and accelerated stakeholder buy-
in for explanations and solutions (Colomina and Molina, 2014).
REFERENCES
Bertalanič, Dolinar, Ključevšek, Medved, Vertačnik, Vlahović, 2017. Ocena podnebnih sprememb v Sloveniji do konca 21. stoletja Povzetek temperaturnih
in padavinskih povprečij, ARSO MOP.
Colomina, I., Molina, P., 2014. Unmanned aerial systems for photogrammetry and remote sensing: A review. ISPRS J. Photogramm. Remote Sens.
Field, C.B., Barros, V., Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Dokken, Ebi, K.L., Mastrandrea, M.D., Mach, K.J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S.K., Tignor, M., Midgley, P.M.,
2012. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPPC 2012.
Jones, S., Somper, C., 2014. The role of green infrastructure in climate change adaptation in London. Geogr. J. 180, 191–196.
Lee, J.G., Nietch, C.T., Panguluri, S., 2018. Drainage area characterization for evaluating green infrastructure using the Storm Water Management Model.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 22, 2615–2635.
Radinja, M., Banovec, P., Matas, J.C., Atanasova, N., 2017. Modelling and Evaluating Impacts of Distributed Retention and Infiltration Measures on Urban
Runoff. Acta hydrotechnica 30, 51–64.

icshge.org
Securitizing Northern Africa – Europe’s Vision of a new Empire?

Cserkits, M.
Department of Social and Cultural Anthropology, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; cserkits@hotmail.com
Abstract—In our paper, we will reflect upon the ongoing European Union security issues dealing with missions all over the
world. As a matter of fact, Africa has been carved out as the main effort of military campaigns conducted by the European
Union and its armed forces. The European Union Military Staff is currently working on its flagship project “military
mobility” (Mogherini 2017, in EEAS 2018) with its aim to transport troop across Europe and beyond – without mentioning a
specific area of operations. We will show how the discourse about security and stability has transformed in the shed light of
the so-called “refugee-crisis” and the implementations on military level (like the ongoing mission in the Mediterranean Sea
“SOPHIA”) in order to re-militarize and re-colonialize northern Africa. For this purpose, Securitization theory will be the
solid basis on which we examine the most present documents of the Military staff and the resolutions that had followed,
always with the main effort on northern Africa. As next step, we present the outcomes on a practical level (the deployment
of troops) and the short- as well as long-term effects that these military campaigns had on the area of northern Africa. By this
we present the exingentness of the situation and the effects on the real world.
Keywords—EU, security theory, northern Africa, military
I. INTRODUCTION
O UR paper will present current events that happened in the European Union (EU) without much public notice, but are never
the less from utmost importance when dealing with policies, governance and international relations. Shedding light from
the so-called migration crisis of 2015, all media attention was directed towards the Near and Middle East, we will argue that
this was just a short term development. Instead, the primary main effort of most European countries is directed towards
Northern Africa. As a short example, we will present the development of the last two years in Austria; a country known for
being in no military alliance – even if it takes part in NATO PfP – Operations (Partnership for Peace) and, beginning with
Autumn 2018, holds the position of the Force Commander of the European Union Military Training Mission in Mali (EUTM
MALI). The referenced source is the European Working council and its decision to change the mission (EUWC 2018) – a
document not open to public, similar to most documents the European Union is releasing regarding its ventures in Africa.
We will also have a closer look on the greater picture, by dealing with the main documents of the European Union Military
planning staff and its effects on long term decision making regarding operations in countries outwards of Europe. For having
a strong methodological framework, we will rely on Securitization Theory (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998) and its effects on
the object that is securitized.
II. SECURITIZATION THEORY

Security threats can be of military, political, economic, societal and environmental nature and the object of the threat does
not necessarily have to be a state (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). A threat can also be located in more than one these
spheres (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). There are three forms by which a state can deal with a public issue. The first form
would be if the state does not treat the issue at all, nor lead a discourse about it, it is therefore nonpoliticized (Buzan/Waever/De
Wilde 1998:21). An issue that is part of public policy, the state does choose to deal with and political decisions are taken in
regard of the issue is a politicized issue (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21) This means the issue is understood to be of concern
for the society and should therefore be governed. Finally, a securitized issue is one that seems to be of such high relevance to
the state due to a general threat, that emergency measures have to be taken by the state (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21)
Such measures can exceed general norms, as the threat legitimizes “actions outside the normal bounds of political procedure”.
(Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21) The process of securitization means the process of identifying an issue as a threat
(Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). Such identification of a security threat can then lead to the abolishment of repression of
laws and rules that are otherwise considered as normal and therefore grated (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). This process
of identifying a threat, arguing its priority and, as a result, breaking standards is considered as securitization (Buzan/Waever/De
Wilde 1998:21).
In a democratic state, it is vital to identify something as a threat to legitimize the use of secret services, which exclude the
public from their decisions and information; even though they are agencies of a democratic state (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde
1998:21). Securitization is reached through actors who securitize (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). Such actors are usually
political and securitize in a rhetorical manner (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). However, the securitization by a political
actor or elite is not enough to identify something as a threat, the target audience - in case of the state as the actor, the citizens
of the state, have to accept the presentation of an issue as threat (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). The securitzer constructs
a threat, which the public has to accept in order for it to become reality (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). Generally, three
types of actors can be identified in this process. First of all, there is the referent object, which is the object of the threat and is
understood as protectable (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). A state, a government, a territory and/or society could be the
referent object (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). Secondly the “securitizing actors” declare the referent object as neither
threatened themselves, nor constitute a threat nor identify the threat (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). The securitizing
actors can be political leaders, advocacy groups, bureaucracies, governments and lobbying groups (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde

icshge.org
1998:21). A security threat does not have to be actual or real to become real, it is often not possible nor it is important to
determine whether a threat is real (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). The different actors in the process of securitization, the
securitzer and the audience, face each other in an asymmetric way (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). Nevertheless, the
audience has to accept the speech-act of the securitzer. It cannot be guaranteed, that the securitizing act is successful, just
because the securitzer holds more power (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21).
The Securitization Theory combines Constructivism and Speech Act Theory with Realism and other schools of thought,
it is clearly based on them and the language plays a key role (Weaver 1995:204). The Copenhagen School defined security
threats as socially created (Weaver 1995:204). Speech acts clearly play a key role, they don´t simply describe an existing
security situation, but bring it into being as a security situation by successfully representing it as such (Williams 2003:513).
For this securitizing move to lead to a successful securitization of an issue, it has to be accepted by the target audience and
only if the audience accepts the presentation of an issue as a threat that has to be dealt with by applying special measures thus
adopting the view of the securitzer then we can speak about a successful securitization. As Williams (2003:513-514) mentioned
securitization theory did manage to combine the traditional and widening streams of security studies. It allows an expansion
and a limitation of the security agenda at the same time. On the one hand, any issue can potentially be securitized via speech
acts and is not limited to the military dimension. A securitization can thus be seen as a more extreme version of politicization
(Buzan 1998:24). Consequently, the Copenhagen School introduced the concept of desecuritization, suggesting that issues that
have once been declared an existential threat in the process of securitization can equally be removed from the emergency back
to the regular political agenda, Given the interconnectedness of securitizations and security sectors, one means of determining
whether a specific securitization ranked high within its respective sector is to examine the implications its desecuritization has
on other sectors (Weaver 1995: 46ss.; Buzan 1998, 25ss.). Weaver defined three possibilities for a successful desecuritization.
The first one is not to talk about an issue in terms of security and is thus strictly speaking, rather avoiding a securitization a
securitization before it takes place. The second option which Weaver mentions is not to respond in a way that would generate
security dilemmas after an issue has been securitized. The third and last possibility is moving an issue back to the political
sphere. For both the second and the third strategy desecuritization may however be problematic because securitizations can be
self-reinforcing. Waever thus admits that the only really good option is to prevent securitizations in the first place (Weaver
1995: 48-49).
III. EMPIRICAL PART

A. How it all began
The legal framework for the EU-Africa relations started at 15th December 2000 with the Cotonou Agreement, where the
word “military” can only be found twice in the more than 300-page long contract, and security only 14 times (see eur-lex
2018). The primary concern in this Charta was addressed in terms of combating specific problems, especially child soldiers,
landmines, and “as well as for suitable action to set responsible limits to military expenditure” (eur-lex 2018: Article 11)
regarding Africa. Europe, as main initiator of the summit, is not mentioned to take part in any expenditure, but we have to
keep in mind that the treaty was signed in 2000, when almost all European countries saw no current threat in the near future
and therefore cut the budget for defense. Just one year later, in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, their actions proved wrong.
In 2007, the lessons learned of the uprising of irregular forces all around the world was taken into account when the EU
released its Joint-Africa-EU-Strategy (JAES), where the first main objective was peace and security which was also articulated
as clear strategic priority (JAES 2007: Chapter IV). A new fragrance in this time was the addition of a clear determination
(articulated by the EU) and a common concern: “However, there is today a clear determination by both Africa and the EU to
bring this partnership to a new and strategic level, not only to foster peace and security in both continents, but also to address
issues of common concern in the global arena.” (JAES 2007: Chapter IV, 2 a.14) Suddenly, peace and security was in the
spotlight of every interest relating the EU’s Africa policy, but if we take a closer look to this blunt sentence, we can see the
spirit that is subliminal immanent in it: Common concerns from Europe in Africa. In former times, this would be called colonial
policy. It is here where main gaps inside the EU’s common Secure and Defense Policy first appeared, as the friction among
the proclaimed wishes and the real efforts arouse between several EU members. Shadare (2016) puts it to a clear statement,
when comparing different Nations in their respective Africa policy. There are those who still believe in the European Identity
and those who “…look after their individual national interests and exemplify power in military terms; the fundamental aim of
their foreign policies approaches is to preserve their sovereignty” (Shadare 2016: 27).
Just a glance before the Arab Spring in 2011 started, the EU released a revised version of the Cotonou agreement in 2010
which was about 50 pages long, (following a small amendment in 2005), where “military” is mentioned only one times, but
security 20 times (EC 2010). If we keep in mind the length of the two different papers, we can see a huge shift towards security
concerns from the European side. Very interesting is the revised Article 11 (dealing with Conflict management), where in
point 2 the parties agree: “The interdependence between security and development shall inform the activities in the field of
peace building, conflict prevention and resolution which shall combine short and long-term approaches, which encompass and
go beyond crisis management.” (EC 2010: Article 11; markings by the author). We can see here first the long-term approach
that opened the door for further actions (as we will see soon) and second, the option for the EU to go beyond crisis management,
e.g. to intervene with other measures. In a parallel step, as first reaction to the events following the Arab spring, the EU revised
its Neighborhood policy (ENP) in 2011, where on the 43 long pages the word “security” comes 36 times into your field of
view (ENP 2011). It was this paper that lay base to the upcoming military training missions, as within its main objectives the

icshge.org
EU clearly articulates the “deep democracy” approach (ENP 2011:4). By “deep democracy”, several core elements of a
democratic system are talked about, e.g. free and fair elections, rule of law but also the control over armed forces and the
police. The stringent shift towards security-based approaches can be found in the ENP, as just in the next paragraph following
the “deep democracy”-approach the intensification of security cooperation comes next. The following quote gives the reader
an impression of the whole section: “Business as usual is no longer an option if we want to make our neighborhood a safer
place and protect our interests” (ENP 2011:6).
B. The shift
As business as usual was no longer acceptable, the EU started several military missions in Africa, beginning with Somalia
in 2010 (under the resolution 2010/96/GASP). “In particular, the objective of the EU military mission shall be to contribute to
a comprehensive and sustainable perspective for the development of the Somali security sector by strengthening the Somali
security forces through the provision of specific military training […] including appropriate modular and specialized training
for officers and non-commissioned officers.” (EC 2010a: Article 1) Three years later, in the turmoil of the Tuareg uprising and
the proclamation of the Asawad-State in northern Mali, the European Union Training Mission in Mali (EUTM MALI) was
implemented in 2013, with very similar goals. Behind the obvious training of security forces and the attempt to stabilize the
unruly region, the EU held its 4th Africa Summit in April 2014, where a roadmap for the next three years (2014-17) was
politically decided. The main joint priority for the next three years was peace and security (EUAS 2014: Point 6). Finally, it
was in this roadmap, where the first glance of the dichotomy between the old hegemon Europe and its subject Africa came
out: “In addition to current EU support to African-led Peace Support Operations and to the APSA through the African Peace
Facility, we will strengthen mobilisation of African and international resources in order to improve the predictability and
financial sustainability of African peace and security activities, […]” (EUAS 2014: Point 16; markings by the author).
In order to make Africa more predictable, more stable and to implement actions beyond crisis management, the Military
Training Missions where a good start to exert power in an indirect way over several – out of the European view – unruly
regions. In the period from 2013 up to 2017, the big shift – as argued in this paper – happened. Not only started the EU to
deploy more and more troop towards the African continent, but it also screened its near surrounding. As in the revised ENP
stated, the mid-term goals transformed from development to stability, security and in some extent to preservation. In order to
ensure this preservation, the EU invested heavily in its own Intelligence Services (located at the EU military planning staff),
and released so-called “country reports” and action-plans for its nearest neighbors, some of them in the Balkans and Eastern
Europe, some in the Near East, but most in Northern Africa. Some examples may underline the intellectual change that most
EU-representatives had already undergone during this period. For Egypt, as first example, the main priority was the “land for
peace”-principle 1, which is directly linked to peace and security in the region, and as second main objective, enhancing the
dialogue on security issues, such as the fight against terrorism, the proliferation of weapons and migration issues (see EEAP
2014). In its final report 2015, where half of the report dealt with security issues, the European Commission came to the
conclusion that there “…was limited progress on Egypt’s reforms in the areas of democratic governance and human rights,
[…] limited progress in implementing the ENP Action Plan, […] no tangible developments in the fight against corruption,
[and] security threats led to a drop in tourism and investment, and threatened the stability of shipments coming through the
Suez Canal.” (EC 2015:3) Never the less, this doesn’t hinder the EU to invest into the country with more than 1.3 billion €
(see EEAS 2018). One can merely assume what the real purpose of that money shall be, but a closer look to the EU-Egypt
Partnership Priorities 2017-2020 may answer the question: Counter-terrorism and managing migration flows: “Combating
these threats represents a common goal of the EU and Egypt who can cooperate through a comprehensive approach that will
address the root causes of terrorism […]” (EEPP 2017: Chapter II, 3b).
Morocco, as second example, faces other challenges. As the country has strong ties towards France, it is not very
surprising that the county has a privileged status among other North African nations. The initially country report (available
only in French) has 103 pages (compared to the 37 pages covering Egypt with its broader territory and much higher population)
and includes a clear action plan as annex, where the strong ties between the EU (notably France) and Morocco are stated (see
EMAP 2013). At the final report, the EU attested Morocco: “Dans le contexte sécuritaire complexe du conflit syrien, trois
conférences régionales concernant les «combattants étrangers» se sont tenues en février, en septembre et en décembre 2014
respectivement à Bruxelles, à Rabat et à Marrakech, en présence du coordinateur de l'UE pour la lutte contre le terrorisme,
impliquant des États membres et de nombreux pays partenaires. […] En matière de blanchiment d'argent et de financement du
terrorisme, la loi portant approbation de la convention du Conseil de l'Europe relative au blanchiment, au dépistage, à la saisie
et à la confiscation des produits du crime et au financement du terrorisme a été ratifiée et publiée au Bulletin officiel en
septembre. 2” (EC 2015a:8ff) Main fields of the final report are dealing with security issues, such as radical Islamic groups, the
proliferation of weapon and money laundering (as side effect of terrorism). As the country had proven in dealing with these
issues (and security is as shown a main effort of the EU) it earned its reward in 2018, when the bilateral EU-Morocco External
Investment Plan was made public. This Investment brings around 4.1 billion € towards the country (see Abdullah 2018).
1
“Land for Peace” describes the principle that if Israel will withdraw from occupied territory, the Arab countries will make peace with it. As the empirical
reality shows, this is another illusion the EU tries to believe (see Abu Zayyad: 2012)
2
Note, the final report is only available in French. It’s message is nevertheless clear: “In the complex security context of the Syrian conflict, three regional
conferences concerning "foreign combatants" were held in February, September and December 2014 in Brussels, Rabat and Marrakech respectively, in the
presence of the EU coordinator for the fight against terrorism, involving Member States and many countries partners. […] In the area of money-laundering
and the financing of terrorism, the law on approval of the Council of Europe Convention on Laundering, Search, Seizure and the seizure and confiscation of
the proceeds of crime and the financing of terrorism has been ratified and published in the Official Bulletin in September. (Translation by the Authors).

icshge.org
C. Recent developments
In December 2017, the European Union launched its new Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) in the field of
military and defense. This projects "which sets out the Union's ambition of strategic autonomy and aims to enhance the EU’s
capacity as an international security partner, contributing to the protection of EU citizens and ensuring greater effectiveness
of defence spending" (EEAS 2018a) is the starting point of the main development. Without much public debate or echo from
other European Institutions (or media), Frederica Mogherini announced the new flagship project "military mobility" with the
aim to "smooth and efficient movement of military forces across the European Union and beyond" (Mogherini 2017, in EEAS
2018a). But why does the European Union have an immanent need for carrying forces and military equipment through - and
more important - beyond its territory?
When we look at the current involvement of European Forces throughout the world, we can identify 17 different Missions
and Operations (see EEAS 2018b). 9 of these Missions operate in Africa, 4 in the Near East and another 4 in Europe (primarily
on the Balkans and Ukraine).
If we look at Figure 1, we can easily carve out the main effort, which is located in Africa. The primary argument for
sending European forces abroad is the often stated "help for self-help" and mutual understanding - a concept that is obviously
detached from Europe's colonial past. On 24th May 2018, the Director of the Military Planning and Conduct Capability had a
meeting in Mogadishu, where high-ranked military as well as civilian counterparts stated: "All three EU Missions are
committed to making Somalia a safer country" (EEAS 2018c). By assuming that Africa is NOT a safe place and posing an
imminent threat to Europe, we can see an uprising dichotomy with a helper (or hegemon) and a subject that needs assistance.
Figure 1. EU Missions around the world (EAAS 2018b).
The EU – Charta of fundamental rights declares in Article 11 as quoted:

“Everyone has the right to freedom of expression. This right shall include freedom to hold opinions and to receive and impart
information and ideas without interference by public authority and regardless of frontiers” (EU 2016).
Most documents relating the European Union Africa Policy are not open to public – especially those which are dealing with
the future of ongoing missions or the “desired end state” of Africa. As just a small taste of how restrictive the right of
information, a self-declared core value of the EU, is in reality, the following documents are not open to public:
• Military Advice on EUTM Mali Mandate 4 draft Mission Plan (19567/EU XXVI.GP) (EUWC 2018a)
• EU CSDP Military Training Mission in Mali (EUTM Mali)/Information Communication Strategy and Initial Public
Master Messages (17738/EU XXVI.GP) (EUWC 2018b)
• EUTM Mali/Reference Amount - fourth mandate (17230/EU XXVI.GP) (EUWC 2018c)
• EU Capacity Building Mission in Somalia (EUCAP Somalia) - extension - Decision (10364/EU XXVI.GP) (EUWC
2018d)
The list above could be much longer, but its message is clear: The right of information is deeply tangled by the European
internal interests in Africa.

icshge.org
D. Empirical outcome
The Treaty dealing with the fundamental function of the European Union quoted in Article 222: “The Union and its
Member States shall act jointly in a spirit of solidarity if a Member State is the object of a terrorist attack or the victim of a
natural or man-made disaster. The Union shall mobilize all the instruments at its disposal, including the military resources
made available by the Member States. […] The European Council shall regularly assess the threats facing the Union in order
to enable the Union and its Member States to take effective action” (EU 2016a). We hereby state that the ongoing military
efforts can see in this light as the direct effect of the regularly assessment of the European Council in order to make it easier
Figure 2. African-led Peace Operations supported by the APF in 2017 (EC 2018: 19).
to deploy more troops in Missions in Africa. There are two main reasons behind sending origin European troops towards the
African continent: First, it is cheaper. As since the founding of the African Peace Facility (a phantom development pot founded
by the EU to foster Peace, security and Stability in Africa) in 2004 around 90,9% (or 2109,7 Million €) of the whole budget
has been allocated for Peace Support Missions (EC 2018: 12). In times where member states moan publicly about lowering
the costs for common EU-pots, the usage of national troop contingents from Europe would fall under national budget costs –
while still enabling the EU as a whole to control the region and its development.
The pervert fact in the growing securitization of Northern Africa is that suddenly, the EU speaks as it acts on behalf of

icshge.org
the interests of the African Union, but as second agenda, still pushing its own security demands. On the 5th EU-Africa Summit
in November 2017, the final statement on peace and security was: “We acknowledge that Africa and EU have common security
threats. New threats to international and regional peace and security have an impact on the stability of our two continents,
particularly the growing terrorist threats and trans-boundary criminal activities” (EUAS 2017: 2).
Dealing with those threats has become the highest priority in the EU-Agenda. Not only has the Union changed its
partnership programs with the African Union and several bilateral states, spending on defense will boost from 2020 onwards
from current 500 Million € up to 8.9 billion €, according to the proposed EU-budget (EC 2018a: 2). The new threats that had
been repeated over and over again in the time from 2013 onwards, are now becoming visible and have entered every institution
in the EU, as with the Joint Communication Strategy in Jun 2018, the European Council stated: “In response, the European
Council highlighted the need to step up the capacity of the EU and its Member States to detect, prevent and respond to hybrid
threats in areas such as cyber, strategic communication and counter-intelligence. […] However, the EU institutions have
already taken a number of actions to help to reinforce national efforts” (EC 2018b: 1).
As with the end of 2017 Austrian officials and intellectuals articulated Africa as the next hotspot for possible migration
routes (see Haller/Stoisser 2017). The former Austrian Foreign Minister, Sebastian Kurz, stated on 8th September 2017: “Wir
sind froh, dass es in den vergangenen beiden Monaten gelungen ist, die illegalen Ankünfte in Italien über die zentrale
Mittelmeerroute zu reduzieren. Ein Gegensteuern ist also möglich. Aber es braucht eine nachhaltige Lösung. Alles andere
führt am Ende zu einer massiven Sicherheitsbedrohung. […] Der Migrationsdruck aus Afrika ist wesentlich größer als die
einzelnen Krisenherde, die Fluchtbewegungen auslösen 3” (derstandard.at 2017).
He was accompanied by the Austrian Minister of Defense, Hans Peter Doskozil, who supported this evaluation. The
current Minister of Defense, Mario Kunasek, thought by June this year about sending additional troops to African countries to
protect the European borders (nachrichten.at 2018).
IV. CONCLUSION
Since the year 2000, the EU and Africa had several stages of cooperation. Beginning with the Cotonou-Agreement on
closer cooperation and primarily development help, main institutions and agents in the European Union had a long-term
strategy of securitizing the relationship between the two continents. As with the Joint-Africa-EU-Strategy a common concern
amongst the EU was articulated, nobody really reacted towards the first steps of a re-imperialization. Beginning with Northern
Africa as its nearest objective, the EU continued to undermine step by step the legitimacy of African Unions internal attempts
to stabilize local conflicts by building up the African Peace Facility and boosting money into it. Together with the EU-African-
Summits and the dictated roadmaps for specific regions of Africa, a new semi-dependency was beginning to arouse and led to
old imperial patterns among several EU member states, as with 2010 the first troops deployed towards Somalia and in 2013
towards Mali.
This marked the beginning of a new era in African-EU-relations, as since then the discourse around the continent was
highly affected by security issues, hybrid threats, migration and terrorism. The aim was to made Africa more predictable and
therefore invest in homegrown Intelligence Services for publishing country-reports that served the Unions agenda. The latest
clout was to sell European interests as African one’s, stating that both continents have the same distinction and facing common
threats. This step opened the door to a policy that could invest in defense and counter intelligence at all costs, even by violating
fundamental rights of EU-citizens for open information.
REFERENCES
Abdullah, M. (2018). EU Launches its External Investment Plan in Morocco Available at https://aawsat.com/english/home/article/1307256/eu-launches-its-
external-investment-plan-morocco [Accessed 24 August 2018]
Abu Zayyad, Z. (2012). Israel And Palestine – Last Chance for the Bilateral Process In Palestine-Israel Journal Available at
http://www.pij.org/details.php?id=1536 [Accessed 24 August 2018]
Buzan, B., Waever O. and de Wilde, J. (1998). Security: A New Framework for Analysis. Lynne Publisher: London.
derstandard.at. (2017). Doskozil und Kurz: "Darf keine illegale Migration nach Europa geben".derstandard.at/2000063809822/Kurz-Doskozil-ist-Partner-
fuer-restriktive-Migrationspolitik [Accessed 6 July 2018]
EC. (2010) European Council. Revised Cotonou Agreement. Availiable at https://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/sites/devco/files/revised-cotonou-agreement-
2010_en.pdf [Accessed 23 August 2018]
EC. (2010a) COUNCIL DECISION 2010/96/CFSP of 15 February 2010 on a European Union military mission to contribute to the training of Somali
security forces. Available at https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32010D0096&from=DE [Accessed 23 August 2018]
EC. (2015). JOINT STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT. Implementation of the European Neighbourhood Policy in Egypt Progress in 2014 and
recommendations for actions Available at https://publications.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/b333bddd-d2df-11e4-9de8-
01aa75ed71a1/language-en [Accessed 24 August 2018]
EC. (2015a). DOCUMENT DE TRAVAIL CONJOINT DES SERVICES. Mise en oeuvre de la politique européenne de voisinage au Maroc Progrès
réalisés en 2014 et actions à mettre en oeuvre Available at https://eeas.europa.eu/sites/eeas/files/morocco_enp_ap_final_en.pdf [Accessed 24 August
2018]
EC. (2018). European Commission – African Peace Facility. Annual Report 2017. Available at https://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/sites/devco/files/apf-
evaluation-2017-vol._1_en.pdf [Accessed 27 August 2018]
EC. (2018a). European Council. EU budget for the future. Available at https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/budget-proposals-defence-
may2018_en.pdf [Accessed 27 August 2018]
EC. (2018b). European Council. JOINT COMMUNICATION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL AND THE
COUNCIL. Increasing resilience and bolstering capabilities to address hybrid threats. Available at
3
“We are glad, that in the last two months the numbers of illegal migrants coming from the route via the Mediterranean Sea is declining. It is therefore possible
to work against this development. But we need a sustainable solution. Everything else leads to massive security threats. […] The migration pressure from
Africa is far bigger than the single crisis spots, which lead to migration movements” (Translated by the authors).

icshge.org
https://eeas.europa.eu/sites/eeas/files/joint_communication_increasing_resilience_and_bolstering_capabilities_to_address_hybrid_threats.pdf
[Accessed 27 August 2018]
EEAP. (2014). EU/Egypt Action Plan. Available at https://eeas.europa.eu/sites/eeas/files/egypt_enp_ap_final_en.pdf [Accessed 24 August 2018]
EEAS. (2018) EU Projects with Egypt, Available at https://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/egypt_en/1157/EU%20Projects%20with%20Egypt [Accessed 24
August 2018]
EEAS. (2018a). European Defence: 17 cooperation projects underway; more to follow later in 2018. https://eeas.europa.eu/topics/conflict-prevention-peace-
building-and-mediation/44123/european-defence-17-cooperation-projects-underway-more-follow-later-2018_en [Accessed 12 June 2018]
EEAS. (2018b). Military and Civilian Missions and Operations. https://eeas.europa.eu/topics/conflict-prevention-peace-building-and-
mediation/area/security-and-defence_en [Accessed 12 June 2018]
EEAS. (2018c). Driving EU civilian-military cooperation forward: joint meeting in Mogadishu by the EU Civilian Operations Commander and the Director
of the EU Military Planning and Conduct Capability. https://eeas.europa.eu/topics/counter-terrorism/45484/driving-eu-civilian-military-cooperation-
forward-joint-meeting-mogadishu-eu-civilian_en [Accessed 12 June 2018]
EEPP. (2017) EU-Egypt Partnership Priorities 2017-2020 Available at http://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/23942/eu-egypt.pdf [Accessed 24 August
2018]
EMAP. (2014). EU/Morocco Action Plan. Available at https://eeas.europa.eu/sites/eeas/files/morocco_enp_ap_final_en.pdf [Accessed 24 August 2018]
ENP. (2011). European Neighborhood Policy. JOINT COMMUNICATION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS. A new response to a changing Neighbourhood.
Availiable at https://ec.europa.eu/research/iscp/pdf/policy/com_2011_303.pdf [Accessed 23 August 2018]
EU. (2016). CHARTER OF FUNDAMENTAL RIGHTS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION. Available at https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-
content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:12016P/TXT&from=EN [Accessed 22 August 2018]
EU. (2016a). CONSOLIDATED VERSIONS OF THE TREATY ON EUROPEAN UNION AND THE TREATY ON THE FUNCTIONING OF THE
EUROPEAN UNION Available at https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:12016ME/TXT&from=EN [Accessed 22
August 2018]
EUAS. (2014). 4th EU Africa Summit. Available at https://www.africa-eu-partnership.org//sites/default/files/documents/2014_04_01_4th_eu-
africa_summit_roadmap_en.pdf [Accessed 23 August 2018]
EUAS. (2017). 5th EU Africa Summit. Available at https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/31991/33454-pr-final_declaration_au_eu_summit.pdf
[Accessed 27 August 2018]
EUWC. European Union Working Council. (2018). 20008/EU XXVI.GP. Available at
https://www.parlament.gv.at/PAKT/EU/XXVI/EU/02/00/EU_20008/index.shtml#tab-Uebersicht [Accessed 22 Aug 2018]
EUWC. European Union Working Council. (2018a). Available at https://www.parlament.gv.at/PAKT/EU/XXVI/EU/01/03/EU_10364/index.shtml
[Accessed 22 Aug 2018]
EUWC. European Union Working Council. (2018b). Available at https://www.parlament.gv.at/PAKT/EU/XXVI/EU/01/72/EU_17230/index.shtml
[Accessed 22 Aug 2018]
EUWC. European Union Working Council. (2018c). https://www.parlament.gv.at/PAKT/EU/XXVI/EU/01/77/EU_17738/index.shtml [Accessed 22 Aug
2018]
EUWC. European Union Working Council. (2018d). https://www.parlament.gv.at/PAKT/EU/XXVI/EU/01/95/EU_19567/index.shtml [Accessed 22 Aug
2018]
Eur-lex. (2018). Cotonou Agreement. Availiable at https://eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?uri=cellar:eebc0bbc-f137-4565-952d-
3e1ce81ee890.0004.04/DOC_2&format=PDF [Accessed 23 August 2018]
Haller, Max/ Stoisser, Hans (2017): Migration aus Afrika – Wir müssen umdenken.
https://www.wienerzeitung.at/meinungen/gastkommentare/934029_Migration-aus-Afrika-wir-muessen-umdenken.html [Accessed 26 July 2018]
JAES. (2007) Joint Africa-EU-Strategy; 9th draft. Availiable at https://www.africa-eu-
partnership.org//sites/default/files/documents/eas2007_joint_strategy_en.pdf [Accessed 23 August 2018]
Nachrichten.at. (2018). Migration – Kunasek will Soldaten nach Afrika schicken. https://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/innenpolitik/Migration-
Kunasek-will-Soldaten-nach-Afrika-schicken;art385,2932769 [Accessed 26 July 2018]
Shadare, Olabode M. (2016). The Joint Africa-EU Strategy in Comparative Study. Master Thesis – Tallinn University.

icshge.org
Attracting Tourists to the Alley: Subaltern Urbanism in Kampung

Maspati, Surabaya
Tauran, T.
Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
Universitas Negeri Surabaya, Surabaya, Indonesia; tauran.tauran@helsinki.fi
Abstract—The objective of this study is to disclose the agency of kampung residents and their role in the urban process. Based
on a case study in Maspati, a kampong, in Surabaya Indonesia, this study demonstrates how the kampung residents transformed
their community from a stigmatised neighbourhood to become an attractive tourism destination. This study applies the
subaltern urbanism framework to examine what kind of urban process is produced by kampong residents who were socially
excluded and without political power. Data for this qualitative research were collected through observation, interviews, and
participating in kampung activities. The interviewees included kampung leaders, kampung dwellers, and officials in district
government. The results show that Maspati Kampung residents are goal-oriented and creative and they manage their
community in flexible and innovative ways. In order to improve their livelihood and social status, they decided to attract
tourists to Maspati. Maspati, largely a narrow alley and with a limited amount of historical attractions, did not look interesting
enough to attract visitors. The residents, however, came up with a plan that turned out to be a success. This was a kampung
tour project, cultural tourism, not a slums tourism. They are offering visitors cultural performances, traditional food,
handicrafts, traditional games, and above all hospitality. The program was carried out by the community leader and women
who have no job. This program has generated income for the residents; strengthened cohesiveness among the kampung
residents; and gives the residents a sense of pride in their kampung. This research provides empirical evidence of the ways
subaltern urbanism works and contributes to the urban processes in Indonesian cities.
Keywords—subaltern urbanism, kampung, land commodification
I. INTRODUCTION
T HIS paper applies the framework of subaltern urbanism to examine how a kampung in Surabaya, Indonesia, improved
their livelihood and answered the challenges of land commodification. Introduced by Ananya Roy (2011) this framework
undertook a theorisation of subaltern spaces and classes and argued that place such the slum is a dynamic terrain of habitation,
livelihood, and politics. She believed this framework could transform ´the ways the cities of the global South are studied and
represented in urban research.’ This is also a politics of recognition that possible to put the place such slum and its people as
account for urban theory (ibid).
For those, unlike several studies see kampungs and their residents a problem rather than resources, this paper is interesting
in investigating the agency of kampung residents that make their kampungs viable and sustainable, while the grand narrative
of kampung is slums with uncultured people. This paper is not to romanticise kampungs, but to explore the possibilities and
capabilities of kampungs and their residents in urban process. The case of this study is Maspati, old kampung in the city centre
of Surabaya, the second largest city in Indonesia. The kampung faces the challenges of land commodification. To answer the
challenges and to improve their livelihood, the kampung developed cultural tourism, not a slums tourism, to attract tourists.
Applying the subaltern urbanism framework, this paper will contribute by providing empirical evidence of the ways subaltern
urbanism works in Surabaya.
Data for this qualitative research were collected during five months of fieldwork in Surabaya, between Mei – September
2017 through observation, interviews, and participating in kampung activities. The interviewees included kampung leaders,
kampung dwellers, and officials in district government.
II. KAMPUNGS AND SLUMS

Kampung is the Malay word for “village,” referring to a small rural settlement, but the word also indicates to a separate
urban community and neighbourhood (Yeoh, 2010:419, Nas et al., 2008:645) which exist in some Southeast Asian countries.
This review of the literature shows that there is a variety of definitions of kampung. Two definitions can be distinguished:
kampung either as a spatial or as a social formation. As a spatial formation, kampung refers to the settlement either in rural or
urban areas. As a social formation, kampung refers to a community with kinship ties, solidarity with others, and which is
egalitarian and residents helping each other. In the same time, the term is also used to signify the people who are deemed
uncivilised, rough, and incompatible with urban culture.
As a spatial formation, referring to its location, Funo (2002) classifies kampungs into three categories: urban kampung,
fringe kampung, and rural kampung. While Ford (1993) classifies kampungs into four types; inner-city kampung, mid-city
kampung, rural kampung, and temporary squatter kampung. However, all of those strikingly differs from planned residential
areas. Kampungs are categorised as informal settlements (Jones, 2017, Hutama, 2016; Tunas, 2008). Characteristic of them is
an unplanned spatial layout, a lack of basic services, informal and insecure property rights, and vulnerability to discrimination
(UN-Habitat, 2003). In urban areas, since of fast urbanisation and migration, kampungs has transformed become a high densely
settlement, remaining narrow alleyways between the buildings with lack any design, and often lack infrastructure and services.
However, some kampung may be built on registered land, while some other built on the unregistered land with the ambiguous
and contentious field of land rights (Leaf, 1993).

icshge.org
As a social formation, the term kampung refers to such idyllic community in rural areas with kinship ties, egalitarian
solidarity, and mutual aid among neighbours (Newberry, 2008; Yeoh, 2010). While in urban areas, kampung and its residents
have a negative connotation which is regarded as a relic from an agrarian way of life living in an urban context and believed
to become demolished by the modernisation. The residents have a stigma of being kampungan meaning uncivilised, rough,
boorish, uncultured, poor, potentially dangerous and subversive people, ill-mannered and incompatible with urban culture
(Guinnes, 2009; Bunnell, 2002). It has similar meaning with the English word for ´slum´ that immediately conjures up strong
images of poverty and misery, danger and decay (Nuissl and Heinrichs, 2013). Both in terms of social and spatial formations,
kampungs have placed outside of urban modernity. Kampungs and its residents are objects of urban redevelopment and
modernisation.
In general, kampungs in urban area are described as part of planet of slums (Davis, 2004:14; Cities Alliance, The World
Bank, and Habitat, 1999:1), as a group of individuals who are living under the same roof in an urban area and lack one or more
of the following: 1) durable housing that protects against extreme climate; 2) sufficient living space; 3) easy access to safe
water; 4) adequate sanitation; 5) security of tenure (UN-HABITAT: 2006). Kampungs are also classified as shanty towns
(Gottdiener and Budd, 2005:137) with poverty, crime, health crises, and children without future, and deemed by the
government as the site of social pollution (Seng, 2007). Nevertheless, as revealed by Ford (1993) there are some types of
kampungs which differently with squats. Then similar with Nijman (2009) to Dharavis, Funo (2002) also questioned the
accuracy of the concept of slums to kampungs.
III. KAMPUNG SEEN FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF SUBALTERN URBANISM: A RESEARCH FRAMEWORK
Many studies have treated kampungs and their residents more like an object in urban development rather than the subject
of the change. However, treating kampungs and their residents as an object of development without understanding how they
are mobilised as subjects is a limited view of kampungs and does not help the city to deal with kampungs which are a home
for more than a half of city residents. We need a more contextual perspective to see kampungs. Perspectives that offers
exploration and liberating potential of kampungs. Perspectives that describe not only the problems faced by the space and
subaltern people, but also their agency. Perspectives that gives them a place as a subject in urban process
Ananya Roy (2011) has offered an idea of subaltern urbanism. With this, she means as a framework to ‘understand and
transform the ways the cities in the global South are studied and represented in urban research’. She argues that subaltern
urbanism can help us move beyond the limits of our understanding and revitalise the agency of subaltern people. This
framework undertook the theorisation of subaltern spaces and classes and argued that place such the slum is a dynamic terrain
of habitation, livelihood and politics (ibid). Subaltern urbanism is a general process that may be taking place anywhere,
including in the global North (Schindler, 2014). This is also a politics of recognition that possibly to put the place such slum
and its people as account for urban theory (Roy, Rao. 2006).
Originally, the term ‘subaltern’ was introduced by Antonio Gramsci but has been developed in postcolonial studies by
Subaltern Studies group which generally considers subalterns as persons or agents whose voices are not heard (Yeboah, 2006).
It refers to 'any low-rank person or group of people in a particular society suffering under hegemonic domination of elite ruling
class that denies them the basic rights of participation in the making of local history and culture as active individuals of the
same nation' (Louai, 2012). Subaltern urbanism then “tends to remain bound to the study of spaces of poverty, of essential
forms of popular agency, of the habitus of the dispossessed, of the entrepreneurialism of self-organizing economies” (Roy,
2011: 231).
Applying this subaltern urbanism framework, this paper is to disclose the agency of kampung residents in Maspati,
Surabaya which has transformed their community from a stigmatised neighbourhood to become an attractive tourism
destination. This paper, therefore, deals with the agency of subaltern people and place in urban process, as advocated by
Herzfeld (2016), Nijman (2010), and Bayat (2007).
IV. URBAN KAMPUNGS IN INDONESIA

In Indonesia, urban kampongs are not rural kampung or temporary squatter kampungs. Urban kampungs are characterized
by high density, built around narrow lanes, with little open space in the kampung area, but close to the employment or business
centre. Administratively, an urban kampung is under the Kelurahan, a sub district government. An urban kampung may consist
of at least one community association that called RW (rukun warga/ community harmony) and several household associations
that called RT (rukun tetangga/ household harmony). RW/RT are neighbourhood units. These divisions originated from the
Japanese wartime administration (Tonarigumi or Chounaikai) and were adopted by the post-independent governments as an
effective way of governing urban population. Ideally, RT comprise no more 30 households and RW three to seven RT. This
administrative structure was implemented for all settlements in the city.
Most urban poor live in kampungs (Nas, 2008:646, Garr 1986; Toer, 1996). However, there are not only poor people
living in kampungs, in some kampungs, there are also middle-income households (Ernawati et al. 2013; Schefold and Nas,
2008:647).). The diversity of its inhabitant intertwining altogether in property ownership, occupation, education, origin, and
religious practice. Based on his studies in Java, Guinnes (2009:15-16) argues kampungs still maintain their community values
such as ‘rukun’ (social harmony) and ‘gotong-royong ‘(mutual aid). Rukun and gotong royong are characteristics connected
to kampung residents. Rukun is an ideology of social relations at the neighbourhood level by which people express and justify
their actions. The moral imperative of rukun is individual self-control, to avoid emotional confrontation with others. ‘Gotong

icshge.org
royong' is a form of action usually done by groups of people to achieve a shared objective.
As informal settlements, the houses in urban kampungs are built by individuals without following building guidelines
(Nas, 2008:646; Ernawati et al. 2013:25). Kampungs’ building density is high, and the narrow alleyways between the buildings
lack any design. In contrast, formal settlements are built with good design buildings, organized, good infrastructure, and
separated from urban kampungs by a wall to give their residents a safe and secure environment. This striking contrast has led
to the situation in which urban kampungs are stigmatised by a negative image. Not only the urban kampung as a neighbourhood
is stigmatized but its residents as well. The label that reflects urban middle-class prejudice against kampung residents (Nas,
2008:646).
However, kampung in Indonesia is not only a residential area but also a dynamic terrain of habitation and home-based
entrepreneurs (Funo, 2002). Some kampung residents produce in their homes food, household goods, handicraft and then sell
these in the market. There can also be tailors, barbers, and warungs (‘small shop’). Most of these are not controlled by the
government.
V. MASPATI
A. Maspati Kampung and Its residents: Idyllic Principles in Confined Space
The case of this study is Maspati (Figure 1), a kampung in the downtown of Surabaya, the second largest city in Indonesia.
Located 250 meters from the Surabaya city landmark “Tugu Pahlawan” (Heroes Monument) in Bubutan district, this kampung
hidden behind the shops and trading activities along a busy road around the city centre. Maspati is an old settlement where
there are still some colonial buildings inside. There is also a preserved tomb of “Mbah Buyut Suruh” which is believed to be
the tomb of the royal family of Javanese kingdom.
Industrial area
Commercial area
Settlement area
Green Open space
x Maspati Kampung
Figure 1. Maspati´s Kampung in the Land use map of Surabaya.
Maspati, about 37,000 sqm has grown into a dense neighbourhood built along two alleyways. There are 245 families
registered with 167 households (71 percent) lived in houses with an area less than 60 sqm. About 105 houses (42 percent) do

icshge.org
not have building permits yet, and 74 houses (30 percent) stand on land that also has not been registered yet. There are 120
households (49 percent) have been living for more than 30 years and only 40 households (16 percent) for less than ten years.
Territorially, they are divided into five household associations (RT) in one community association (RW), where two of them
(RT1 and RT2) that located at the east of kampung was more populated than others (Maspati Profile, 2017).
Maspati´s residents work in different occupations, have a different level of education, and practice different religions.
Majority of residents are people who rely on their earning from wage labour either in the formal or informal sector. There is
also the home-based entrepreneur who use the home to run a business such as Warung (small-shop), tailor, barber shop, and
home industry inside the kampung. The small-shops provide limited daily groceries to serve inhabitants. The costumer of tailor
and barber are mostly their neighbour. The home industries such as plastic packaging, baby mattress, and traditional recipe
food with two to seventh employee serve some market in the city.
Even though living in the dense settlement, the resident Anto, an entrepreneur, 45 years old, felt at home in Maspati since
he thought the people are affable and harmonious. “I had lived in Bandung and Jakarta, and now I have been living in Maspati
for 12 years. I like this kampung compare to my previous residence. People here are friendly and care to their neighbour”.
He said the feeling as a member of the community seems strong within the resident. Residents have a habit of greeting each
other when they meet another resident in their alleyway. Another resident, Sur, 69 years old, a Chinese descent, asserted that
she is happy living in Maspati. “I have been living in Maspati more than 60 years, and I am happy living in here because the
people are care with their neighbour. We care to our neighbours especially when one of us gets sick or mourns.” Anto and
Sur think that Maspati´s residents still maintained their communal values such as harmony (rukun) and mutual aid (gotong-
royong).
The residents have several community activities such as the PKK and Yasinan. The PKK (Pendidikan Kesejahteraan
Keluarga/ the Family Welfare Movement) is a community association the membership of which is based on residence, gender
(women) and marriage. Every month, there are meetings of PKK in Maspati. The yasinan is a kind of joint pray every Thursday
night for Muslim. This is a tradition that performed by the Javanese Muslim community. They also have an agreement to keep
their alley as a public space safe and pleasant. It was a prohibition to ride motorbikes along the alley. People must turn off
their motorbikes and guide their bikes to the intended endpoint by walking. This agreement was made by residents to save the
children who often played along the alley and to avoid noise and pollution inside kampung.
B. Maspati´s Resident: Against Land Commodification
For Maspati’s residents, living in the city centre and close to commercial activities does not necessarily mean a benefit
for their livelihood. It means uncertainty. Residents are fully aware that they are living in an area where the land is valuable.
Rin, 45 years old, coordinator of PKK disclosed “Many parties interested in this kampung because we live in the city centre….
Now, there are some houses already sold to the outsider for warehouse”. As stated by Rin, some houses in kampung have
changed into storehouse. Trader favour this area as it provides easy access to place and distribute the commodities. This
situation was considered a threat to the community. Sabar, 48 years old, the chief of community association (RW) asserted:
“We are worried if there will be more houses replaced by the warehouse. It will reduce our people, degrade our community,
and finally, eliminate our kampung”.
The changes some dwelling into warehouse are not a new treat for Maspati´s kampung. As Rin told. “in the 1990´s, we
had been offered three million rupiahs per meter for our land. But we did not get a deal because there was no agreement
among residents to respond the offer”. The residents claimed that they had received some bids to sell their land. The offer
come from hotel developer and cigarette company through brokers. Some residents refuse to sell their land for various reasons
such as keeping family inheritance, not wanting lost their old neighbours, close to the workplace etc. While some residents
want to accept the offer if the price is satisfied.
The treat of land commodification on kampungs in Surabaya is not a new phenomenon. That is not the only case in
Surabaya. Some old kampungs have been demolished and replaced by hotels and commercial developments. In the city centre,
Karangbulak kampong was replaced by Hyatt Hotel, Blauran-Kidul kampung replaced by Empire Hotel, and Kaliasin kampung
replaced by Tunjungan Plaza shopping mall. The booming real estate business has been one those of threats jeopardising
kampungs in Surabaya. As the second largest city in Indonesia, Surabaya has attracted heavy flow of property investment. In
the last five years, the economy of Surabaya has been growing 7% a year and always above the national average of 5,02%.
Real estate business in Surabaya grew significantly, and offices building, apartment, retail, and hotel were developed in the
last decade. Land prices raised between 10% - 15% per year. In 2016, there was 27,260 sqm new office buildings developed
making the total amount of the office space 296,512 sqm. In the Hotel sector, there are 1,920 new hotel rooms available during
2016 (Colliers Report, 2016).
Regarding this issue, Eko, Chief of Bubutan District argued:
“The survival of kampung will depend on the livelihood of its residents. It could be the case that the municipality has
provided amenities (for kampung), but when the residents were seduced (by developers) then the kampung will disappear”.
The authorities believed that the survival of kampung depends on its inhabitants. The government had no program to
protect the kampung from the commodification and selling of land. Instead of such a programme, the municipality has
programs to help the poor and low-income people to be able to help themselves, for example, the programmes educating them
skills required in the labour market or to become entrepreneurs. The municipality defended these programmes by arguing that
the survival of the kampung could not be separate with the economic situation of its residents and that these programmes
improve livelihood of kampung residents. However, the municipality’s persuasion that the economic empowerment

icshge.org
programme would save the kampung from land commodification, did not convince Maspati’s residents, and they began
planning their own programme
C. From a stigmatised neighbourhood to an attractive tourist destination
Around five years ago, the household association RT-2, the dense dwelling in Maspati kampung, made a simple project
for their members, titled "Green with 500 rupiahs". The project implemented by collect 500 rupiahs from each family, once a
week, to buy plants for each house. The purpose of this project is simple, make up their house surroundings to be tidier and
greens. It was sound a funny project for the residents, since at that time, 500 rupiahs was not a significant amount for the
residents. For instance, the price of a rose at that time was 3000 rupiahs. Since it was sounded funny and cheap for its members,
who majority poor, all members are committed to partake and make this project successful.
However, the mission behind this project was not beautify the kampung by planting flowers, but to raise the awareness
of residents for the cleanliness and greenery of the kampung. This was to fight against the stigmatization of kampungs as dirty
places. Yit, 46 years old, the chief of RT2 explained: “by this project, we want to convince our residents who are mostly poor,
that to make a clean, neat and green settlement is not expensive”. This project was successful in mobilizing residents to
improve their settlement. All residents involved to spruce their dwelling and its surrounding and supplementing with potted
plants. Some residents, without waiting for the money collected, bought more pot plants and shared them with their poor
neighbours.
This project has inspired four other household associations (RT) in Maspati to do such this project. Thanks to the efforts
of the residents, the Maspati kampung was transformed from slum to a clean settlement with flowers and plants. In 2013,
Maspati won ‘The green and clean contest’ that was organised by the municipality. This prize, recognised in the local media,
gave the residents confident and pride of their kampung. The prize was a milestone that increased residents’ care of their
neighbourhood. This was also their victories to fight against the stigma.
However, the residents are mindful that winning in an environmental contest does not answer their daily problems. For
Maspati´s residents that majority rely on their earning from wage labour, their biggest concern is how to increase income and
survive from the threat of land commodification. Sabar argued, “Kampung’s residents need more than an award. They need
economic security. They need a continuous income”. For this reason, Maspati’s residents come up with a plan a tourist business
for their residents. It was Sabar´s idea the chief of community association (RW). He stated that the idea was inspired after
seeing the enthusiasm of residents making improvements of kampung amid their limitations due to poverty. He believes that
most of residents have a concern to make the kampung pleasant actually. Unfortunately, they cannot do much to partake
because of poverty. Sabar explained: “A kampong in the city should not only be a decent place for living but must generate
income to its residents… We want to attract visitors into kampung to generate economic activities our residents”
In the beginning, many residents presumed the idea to make Maspati as a tourist destination is unrealistic. They argued,
although Maspati located in the downtown, it lacked adequate infrastructure to be a tourist destination. Moreover, Maspati
only has a limited amount of physical and historical attractions. Also, the worst, Maspati located in the narrow alley between
dense dweller. Though, Sabar knew that his idea sounds difficult to be realised, but it still possible. To support his idea, firstly,
Sabar persuaded the chief of household association (RT), the chief of PKK, and young kampung leader to be the pioneer of
this project. Then, they began to raise the confidence of the residents to take benefit the potential of the kampung. All residents
were asked to maintain the cleanliness and tidiness of kampung and be friendly to the visitor who visits the kampung. They
made this project open to all residents and voluntary. The primary target of the program implementers are residents who do
not have jobs and housewives who seek additional income.
They were success to realise the project. This was a kampung tour program, cultural tourism, not a slums tourism or
poverty tourism. The residents refused to exhibit their poor living condition as commodity. They enthusiastic to resist the grand
narrative of kampung and conjure the kampung to become “living museum” of the city that offering a nostalgic space for
visitors to rediscover indigenous community and its tradition. Housewives, unemployed, and young resident were the main
force in implementing the plan.
They began improving the kampong physically, cleaned the area and painted walls. They identified the colonial-era
buildings and designated them tourism areas. They painted a path along the alley and arranged a traditional game area for
visitors. They reproduced some traditional toys that have been difficult to find, to be sold to visitors. They encouraged young
residents to begin practicing traditional music to be performed for the tourists. They encouraged housewives to make traditional
food to be sold to the visitors.
They also branded themselves as the Kampung Lawas Maspati (the old kampong of Maspati) and began offering a
kampung tour program which consisted of cultural performances, traditional food, handicrafts, traditional games, and above
all hospitality. They made known that their kampung can give a historical tour to social and cultural life of idyllic community
that has disappeared in Surabaya. They sold tour packages ranging from individual to group tour packages. The ticket for
individual tour packages, without a tour guide and seeing a cultural performance, is five thousand rupiahs (about 30 cent euro).
Two million rupiahs (about 125 euro) for a group package. Social media such as Facebook, WhatsApp, and Instagram are the
primary medium to advertise the program and Maspati.
The residents, with their joint efforts, succeeded to attract visitors, and visitors meant income for the residents. The visitors
brought by tourist agencies, government official, school, and university people. The money the tourist business brought is
managed by the community association and shared with all the resident who participated in this program. This program has
generated income for the residents; strengthened cohesiveness among the kampung residents; and gives the residents a sense

icshge.org
of pride of their kampung.

Contrast to the grand narrative of kampung, Maspati´s residents showed they are creative, goal-oriented, and able to
manage the community in flexible and innovative ways. To realise this tourist kampung project, the residents were able to
capitalize a potential of kampung by relating to city history and traditions. They produced creative rhetoric of cultural identity.
They campaigned that Maspati is an old settlement that bounded to the important history of the city. They promoted some
kampung properties such as a colonial house that was used as a place for resistance to the Dutch colonial, old building former
Javanese school building in the colonial era, and also a tomb which claimed as a royal family who founded the city. They can
optimize kampung resources to achieve their goals to become a tourist destination. They are also pragmatic, and goal oriented
in carrying out this community project. They made these activities to directly address their daily problems, generating income.
They are also skilful to organize themselves in the community association. They have flexibility to deal with residents
with various education level, occupation, social background. The impressive thing, they are open and easy to work with other
groups both formal and informal. They are agile to make a network with the government institution, company, Non-
Government Organizations, School, University and community. In this case, their capability is a contrast to the narrative of
kampung´s people who were described as uncivilised people and incompatible with urban culture.
Nevertheless, in line their enthusiasm, endurance, creativity, they need leadership that can direct their agency. They need
leadership that can coordinate their energy and connects with networks of stakeholders outside the kampung.
VI. CONCLUSION: MASPATI´S KAMPUNG AND ITS RESIDENTS, SUBALTERN URBANISM IN SURABAYA
This research provide empirical evidence of the ways subaltern urbanism works and contributes to the urban process in
Surabaya. Maspati´s case show that urban poor are not passive people who conceded to be objects of urban development. They
involved actively both to improve their livelihood and to guard their space from land commodification by giving a new meaning
for the place they live in. A new meaning that empowers the residents and changes the way the city views the kampung.
Maspati´s residents refused to sell their poor living condition as a commodity. Instead, they set the kampung cleaner, tidy
and green to avoid a stigma, and conjure the kampung to what Herzfield (2006) called as a “living museum” of the city. They
offer their kampung as a nostalgic space for visitors to rediscover indigenous community and its tradition which characterized
by informal life, friendly and humble people, harmonious community, foods and traditions. They restored the meaning of
kampung to its idyllic community of kampung. This fact becomes interesting not only for their actions to change the image of
their settlement but also for their spirit of resistance to the grand narrative of kampung as slums and uncivilized people. The
passionate actions of residents to change their place indicate that they are not people who are living for waiting for government
intervention. They are enthusiastic people who strive to improve their space and livelihood.
Differently with Dharavi (Weinstein, 2014) and Pom-Mahakam (Herzfield, 2016) where slum residents deal with city
governments that criminalize their activities, Maspati´s residents use social tourism supported by the municipality as their
strategies to control their land. These strategies may differ as a result of the institutional context in which they are embedded
and resources, but the goals of securing urban space are similar.
Research may indicate that subaltern urbanisms engender similar responses from residents to deal with land
commodification especially for residents located in the city centre, where land is a valuable commodity. Residents in Maspati
seem to exhibit similar responses: they seek to control urban space and engage in ‘plucky entrepreneurialism’ (Schindler,
2014) with social tourism which providing economic benefits for residents as the host (Minnaert et al. 2011).
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This paper is a part of a doctoral research in Department of Social Research, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Helsinki.
It is funded by the Indonesia Endowment Fund for Education (LPDP) under the Directorate General of Higher Education
(DIKTI) Program in the BUDI-LN Scheme. Conclusion or opinion expressed in this research, do not necessarily reflect the
views of the institution or organisation that mentioned above.
REFERENCES
Bayat, A. (2007). Radical religion and the habitus of the dispossessed: Does Islamic militancy have an urban ecology? International Journal of Urban and
Regional Research, 31(3), 579–590. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2427.2007.00746.x
Bunnell, T. (2002). 'Kampung Rules: Landscape and the Contested Government of Urban(e) Malayness', Urban Studies 39: 1685-701.
Butler, S.R. (2012). Curatorial interventions in township tours: Two trajectories. – In: Frenzel, F., K. Koens and M. Steinbrink (eds.): Slum tourism.
Poverty, power and ethics. – New York et al.: 215-231
Cities Alliance (1999). Cities Without Slums: Action Plan for Moving Slum Upgrading to Scale. The World Bank/UNCHS (Habitat), Washington, DC.
www.citiesalliance.org
Ford, L. R. (1993). A Model of Indonesian City Structure. American Geographical Society, 83(4), 374–396. Retrieved from
http://www.jstor.org/stable/215821
Funo, S., Yamamoto, N., & Silas, J. (2002). Typology of Kampung Houses and Their Transformation Process. Journal of Asian Architecture and Building
Engineering, 1(2), 193–200. https://doi.org/10.3130/jaabe.1.2_193
Guinness, P. (2009). Kampung, Islam and State in Urban Java. Singapore. NUS Press.
Gottdiener, M. and Budd, L. (2005). Key Concepts in Urban Studies. SAGE Publications. London.
Herzfeld, M. (2016). Siege of the Spirits: Community and Polity in Bangkok (1st ed., p. 281). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Louai, E., H. (2012). Retracing the concept of the subaltern from Gramsci to Spivak: Historical developments and new applications. African Journal of
History and Culture (AJHC) Vol. 4(1), pp. 4-8, January 2012 Available online at http://www.academicjournals.org/AJHC

icshge.org
Minnaert, L., Maitland, R., & Miller, G. (2011). What is social tourism? Journal Current Issues in Tourism. Vol. 14, 2011. Issue 5.
Newberry, J. (2008). Double spaced: Abstract labour in urban kampung. Anthropologica, 50(2), 241–253. https://doi.org/10.2307/25605418
Nuissl, H., Heinrichs, D. (2013). Slums: perspectives on the definition, the appraisal and the management of an urban phenomenon. Review article. Journal
of the Geographical Society of Berlin. Vol. 144, No. 2
Nijman, J. (2010). A study of space in Mumbai’s slums. Tijdschrift Voor Economische En Sociale Geografie, 101(1), 4–17. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-
9663.2009.00576.x
Roy, A. (2011). Slumdog Cities: Rethinking Subaltern Urbanism. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 35(2), 223–238.
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2427.2011.01051.x
Schindler. S. (2014). Understanding Urban Processes in Flint, Michigan: Approaching ‘Subaltern Urbanism’ Inductively. International Journal of Urban and
Regional Research. Vol 38.3 May 2014 791–804 DOI:10.1111/1468-2427.12082
Stark, M. (2015). Southeast Asian urbanism: From early city to Classical state. In N. Yoffee (Ed.), The Cambridge World History (The Cambridge World
History, pp. 74-93). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/CHO9781139035606.006
Toer, P.A. (1996). My Kampung (Kampungku). Indonesia, No. 61, Pramoedya Ananta Toer and His Work (April., 1996), pp. 25-31. Southeast Asia
Program Publications at Cornell University. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3351361
Tunas, D., & Peresthu, A. (2010). The self-help housing in Indonesia: The only option for the poor? Habitat International, 34(3), 315–322.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2009.11.007
Yeboah, I. (2006). Subaltern strategies and development practice: urban water privatization in Ghana. The Geographical Journal, Vol. 172, No. 1, pp. 50–65
Yeoh, B.S.A. (2010). Kampung. In Encyclopedia of Urban Studies. Ed. Hutchison, R. Thousand Oaks, Calif: SAGE Publications, Inc.
Gordon, R. & M. Nell (2006), Home-based entrepreneurs: Research findings and recommendations. Available at www.finmarktrust.co.za.
Seng, L., Kah, (2007). ‘Black Areas’: The Urban Kampongs and Power Relations in Post-war Singapore Historiography. Working Paper No.137 September
2006. Sojourn, 22 (1), April 2007: 1-29
Jones, P. (2017). Formalizing the Informal: Understanding the Position of Informal Settlements and Slums in Sustainable Urbanization Policies and
Strategies in Bandung, Indonesia. Sustainability 2017, 9, 1436.
Rao. (2006). Review Essay: Slum as theory: The South/Asian city and globalization. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research. Vol 30.1 March
2006 225-32
Weinstein, L. (2014). The Durable Slum: Dharavi and the Right to Stay Put in Globalizing Mumbai. University of Minnesota Press.

icshge.org
Trends in Population Migration in Post-Communist Countries: Case

Study of the Czech Republic
Novák, V.,* and Palcrová, Š.
Department of Regional Development and Public Administration, Faculty of Social and Economic Studies, Jan Evangelista
Pukryně University in Ústí nad Labem, Ústí nad Labem, Czech Republic; * vaclav.novak@ujep.cz
Abstract—The main aim of the paper is to describe the trends of migration flows of population after the collapse of the
totalitarian regime in one of the post-communist countries. Based on the data gathered, the authors present perspectives on
further development of the spatial distribution of population in the Czech Republic. The data on both long-term and short-term
migration are used in the paper. The data on migration are provided by the Czech Statistical Office from both the continuous
population statistics as well as the census. Besides the basic demographic methods focused on measuring the migration
intensity, the authors also used the GIS method to present the data used. The migration of population, from the spatial
perspective, is examined on the level of regions of the Czech Republic. A particular attention is paid to the metropolitan area
of the capital city of the Czech Republic. Since the nineties, Prague and its wider hinterland formed by the Central Bohemian
Region have been showing the most significant growth of population among all the regions of the Czech Republic. The core
of the metropolitan region is formed by the Prague agglomeration whose delimitation is in terms of the territorial-administrative
structure of the Czech Republic relatively complicated. The article uses commuting data to present a solution to this problem.
The authors also pay attention to migration loss in regions – mostly the old industrial regions and marginal regions. The Ústí
Region, the Karlovy Vary Region and the Moravian-Silesian Region fall within this category and are classified by the
government as structurally affected regions.
Keywords—migration, regions of the Czech Republic, Prague agglomeration
I. INTRODUCTION
S INCE the 1990s, the post-communist countries have been undergoing economic transformation. In the Czech Republic, it
resulted also in social transformations characteristic for their dynamic differentiation tendencies. The consequences –
inner social and territorial polarisations (Hampl 2007). On grounds of the centrally planned economy during the Socialist era,
the intrastate migration flows were influenced by the decisions of the governments, or rather the ruling Communist Party. Such
decisions concerned especially residential housing as a result of the support of development of preferred branches of industries
linked to particular regions (e.g. coalfields). After the fall of Communism and the switch to market economy, some of the
supported branches of industries became quickly deteriorating branches of industries. Black coal mining industry
and the successive metallurgical industry in the Moravian-Silesian Region registered a high decrease in jobs. The mining of
brown coal in the Ústí and Karlovy Vary Regions was also being limited. The attractiveness of individual regions in the Czech
Republic started to change due to changes in the distribution of job opportunities (Blažek, 2001) and in the economic aggregate
(Viturka et al., 2003). This naturally influenced the intrastate population migration, in some regions, of course, positively. The
growing tertiary sector with added value absorbing population with attained tertiary education is typical for the Prague
metropolitan region – and also other regions within Europe, as Krätke (2007) confirms.
Subsidies to residential housing were in the nineties, contrary to the Socialist era, fully eliminated. This led to a substantial
drop in the volume of interregional migration. The permanent change of residence was, to a certain degree, replaced by other
(transitional) forms of population mobility such as non-daily commute to work (Ptáček et al., 2007). In the following decades,
this trend changed due to the growing distribution and availability of mortgage credits even for the middle classes (Ouředníček,
Posová, 2006). This influenced the more intensive distribution of population within the Czech Republic through inner
migration after the year 2000. This paper belongs thematically to the outputs dealing with regional development. The theory
is based on the work of D. Massey (1984) on spatial divisions of labour since inner migration in the Czech Republic after 1990
was caused by differences between the regional job markets. This resulted from a spatial distribution of governance structures
in the private as well as the public sector which led to a functional division of labour among the regions, including branches
of industries and corporations. The spatial separation of performance of individual functions in manufacturing leads
for instance to regional differentiations of job offers, wage levels and thus to a diverse migration attractiveness of the regions.
The authors also base their work on the conclusions of the neo-classical theoretical concepts, more specifically the
localisation theories based on the identification of localisation factors of economic activities. Such factors include
agglomeration savings already defined by Alfred Marshall (1920) and employed in the work on the so-called ‘new economic
geography’ of Krugman (1991). In the opinion of the potential further representatives of the new economic geography,
Ottaviano a Thisse (2005), firms and hence job opportunities tend to concentrate in metropolitan areas which can be regarded
as agglomerations of higher order. The Prague metropolitan region could be, therefore, expected to tend to concentrate firms
and thus economic activities in general. This should manifest itself in two aspects:
1. From the spatial perspective, the Prague agglomeration goes beyond the framework of the administrative city borders
due to the suburbanisation processes of a commercial nature.
2. The accumulation of economic activities leads to an intensive population growth of the Prague agglomeration.
The authors of this paper focus on the spatial delimitation of the Prague agglomeration. Subsequently, they analyse the
demographic ratios of the core area of the Prague metropolitan area.

icshge.org
II. DATA SOURCES, METHODS

A. Population migration
The Czech Statistical Office has been tracking data on population migration including migration flows since 1949 (Novák,
2009). The problematic aspect is the spatial delimitation of the territorial administrative units which are representative in the
data. This paper describes migration ratios of self-governing regions of the Czech Republic which were established only in
2000. Moreover, some of these regions were newly territorially delimited in 2005. Fortunately, the Statistical Office has been
publishing data on population migration in a time row since 1991 when the self-governing regions had not yet existed. At the
same time, it respects the territorial alterations of the 2005 delimitations of the regions. A territory’s migration profitability or
loss is assessed with reference to migration balance which is the result of the difference between the number of people moving
in and people moving out per average population. This relativized indicator is called the net migration rate with the migration
balance relating to 1,000 inhabitants of average population. This indicator does not, however, present annual values but rather
annual average values of a multi-year period as the values in interannual intervals on the regional level tend to fluctuate. The
same approach is applied to the evaluation of the gross natural increase, i.e. by means of the annual average of a multi-year
period.
B. Commute to work, delimitation of agglomerations
In the Czech Republic, data on inter-municipal commute has been gathered through census since 1961. The last census
took place in 2011. It is in this year the Prague agglomeration was delimited – through the use of data on inter-municipal
commute to work which captures the reciprocal interactions of human settlements. Furthermore, there is a presumed existence
of one dominant centre which, together with the settlements in its surroundings with strong bonds to the centre, form
an agglomeration (Votrubec, 1980). Additionally, following the example of Tonev (2013), the reciprocal commute relations
started to be taken into consideration. A functional urban settlement – such as an agglomeration – is characterised not only by
strong bonds to the dominant centre of the agglomeration but also by interactions of the dominant centre with the agglomerated
municipalities. The strong reciprocal relations of the core of the agglomeration and the surrounding human settlement units
result from the commercial suburbanisation which has been intensively in progress in Czech metropolises such as Prague or
Brno (Sýkora, Ouředníček, 2007).
The process of delimiting the Prague agglomeration was based on the process of Novák (2017). The surrounding
municipalities were merged with Prague, the dominant centre of the agglomeration, through the method of gradual aggregation.
The condition was to achieve or to exceed the merging parameter which is the result of the summation of two share values:
• the share of daily commuters to work from the municipality into the agglomeration of the total number of daily
commuters to work from the municipality (in %);
• the share of daily commuters to work from the agglomeration into the municipality of the total number of daily
commuters to work into the municipality (in %);
TABLE I
THRESHOLD VALUES OF MERGING PARAMETER (SUMMATION OF SHARES OF DAILY COMMUTE INTO AND FROM THE MUNICIPALITY) ACCORDING TO THE
TOTAL NUMBER OF COMMUTERS TO WORK AND THE COMMUTE INDEX OF THE MUNICIPALITY TESTED
Sum Total of Commuters to Work
Commute Index* 1 000- 2 000- 5 000

10-100 100-500 500-1000
2 000 5 000 And More
0-30 130 125 120 115 110 105

30-50 125 120 115 110 105 100
50-70 120 115 110 105 100 95
70-90 115 110 105 100 95 90
90-110 110 105 100 95 90 85
110-150 105 100 95 90 85 80
150-200 100 95 90 85 80 75
200-500 95 90 85 80 75 70
500 + 90 85 80 75 70 65
*Note: Commute Index = the ratio between the total commute to work into the municipality and the total commute to work from the municipality multiplied
by 100. Source: Novák (2017)
Further merging conditions are:

• The minimal number of daily commuters into (the merging) municipality is 10 people.
• The value of the merging parameter must be exceeded.
• The cadastral territory of the merging municipality must border on another municipality of the agglomeration being
delimited, in other words, enclaves are excluded.
• Enclaves are excluded implies that a municipality which does not fulfil the conditions on merging can be merged with
the agglomeration if it is surrounded by already agglomerated municipalities.

icshge.org
Table 1 implies that with the increasing number of commuters into the municipality, the threshold for merging decreases. In
the same manner, the more favourable conditions for merging were used for municipalities with a higher threshold of the
commute index expressed by the ratio between the commuters into the municipality (in total) and the commuters from the
municipality (in total). As Novák (2007) states, the gradual decreasing of the merging parameter was determined by numerous
empirical testing of the Czech agglomerations in a way which would ensure that the delimited agglomerations corresponded
to at least such a delimitation of the vast majority of agglomerations which was used in the work of Hampl (2005).
Data from the Czech Statistical Office on population movement in municipalities of the Czech Republic (vital statistics)
were used for the purposes of analysing the demographic ratios in the Prague agglomeration as a whole with its sub-parts (the
core and the non-core zone). Even though this data has been accessible since the 1970s, their use was permissible only after
2000. In the 1990s, the Czech Republic saw a dynamic process of disintegration of municipalities when the number of
municipalities grew from around 4 thousand to the today’s figure exceeding 6 thousand. In addition, some of the municipalities
were also merging again. These conditions make it practically impossible to carry out demographic analyses of groups of
municipalities from the 1990s when the territorial delimitation does not strictly correspond to the bigger territorial
administrative units. The same, after all, applies to the Prague agglomeration delimited by the authors.
III. NET MIGRATION AND NATURAL INCREASE

In the period from 1991 to 2017, the population of the Czech Republic increased overall by 386 thousand people. The
migration balance presents a 73% share in this figure. The remaining 27 % represents the natural increase in the population
(the difference between the born and the deceased). Despite the fact that the Czech Republic was, during the analysed period,
profitable in terms of migration, there were four Czech regions which were passive. The region which lost the highest number
of its population was the Moravian-Silesian Region. The second highest loss of inhabitants per population was registered in
the Karlovy Vary Region. The Czech government has classified both regions as structurally affected regions. While the
Moravian-Silesian Region belongs to the old industrial regions (Rumpel et al., 2010), the Karlovy Vary Region represents, in
terms of age, a marginal territory. It is surprising that in the Ústí Region, the last of the structurally affected regions, the
migration was active between 1991 - 2017. It is a region with the long-term highest unemployment rate (Novák et al., 2016)
and the lowest real estate prices. Therefore, it mainly attracts socially vulnerable groups of people which is no good news for
the region.
The attractive areas are mainly the metropolitan areas. In Bohemia, it is especially Prague and its hinterland in the Central
Bohemian Region. In Moravia, many Czech geographers have identified the Brno agglomeration and its hinterland as the
second metropolitan area. Nevertheless, it is in many aspects, including the spatial ones, incomparable with the Prague
metropolitan area.
Picture 1. Net migration rate in regions of the Czech Republic in the period 1991 - 2017 (Annual Average). Data source: The Czech Statistical Office:
Demographic yearbooks of regions of the Czech Republic: 1991 - 2017; authors elaboration

icshge.org
Other migration-active regions were those bordering on economically developed countries. The Pilsen and the South
Bohemian Regions profit from their geographical and cultural proximity to the rich German federal state of Bavaria.
Furthermore, the South Bohemian Region has a common border with the Austrian federal state of Upper Austria which belongs
to the highly above-average economically efficient regions within the European Union. These spatial aspects were the cause
of the localisation of direct foreign investments into the Pilsen and South Bohemian Regions already in the 1990s – earlier
than in any other regions in the Czech Republic. The favourable situation on the regional job markets is the main pull-factor
of the influx of inhabitants into these regions.
In order to evaluate migration activity of the regions of the Czech Republic, the environmental factors cannot be omitted.
All three very active border regions in terms of migration (Pilsen, South Bohemian, Liberec) are highly attractive for tourists
particularly thanks to their natural potential. In comparison to the Czech average, they have an above-average forest coverage.
In the ten years between 2008 - 2017, the Czech Republic was hit by economic crisis which gradually transformed into a strong
economic boom. In 2017, the Czech market saw an unprecedented situation. The number of vacancies registered by the
Employment Office of the Czech Republic was higher than the number of registered unemployed persons. Nonetheless, the
distribution of vacancies is not spatially equal. The average salaries also differ regionally. In the Czech Republic, the lowest
wages are in the Karlovy Vary Region while the highest are in Prague and the Central Bohemian Region. The increasing
differentiation of attractiveness of the regional job markets is certainly the main cause of the deepening of the relative migration
loss in the marginal and old industrial regions and the high migration attractiveness of the Prague metropolitan area.
Between 2008 - 2017, the migration profit of the Czech Republic was 228 thousand people. It is the result of the balance
of migration flows from abroad into the Czech Republic and from the Czech Republic abroad. The net migration of Prague
and the Central Bohemian Region in the surveyed period comprised in total of 213 thousand people. It means that almost the
whole migration growth of the last ten years took place in the Prague metropolitan region only. Naturally, inner intra-regional
migration also exists here, therefore it is quite clear that the Prague metropolitan region does not gain its inhabitants only
through foreign migration but from basically all the regions of the Czech Republic. This is the reason why 6 out of 14 regions
registered negative migration balance in the years 2008 - 2017. What may seem quite surprising is the high attractiveness of
the Pilsen Region. Besides the attractive regional job market, the proximity to Bavaria and the favourable environmental
conditions, it is also the low population density which plays a big role. Thanks to this factor, this region can absorb immigrants
easier than, for example, the South Moravian metropolitan area.
Picture 2. Net migration rate in regions of the Czech Republic in the period 2008 - 2017 (annual average). Data source: The Czech Statistical Office:
Demographic yearbooks of regions of the Czech Republic: 2008 - 2017; authors elaboration
A. Impacts of uneven distribution of population through migration

It was the natural increase in population which contributed to a smaller extent to the population growth of the Czech

icshge.org
Republic in the ten-year period of 2008 - 2017. In total, the number of people born (excluding still-birth) exceeded the number
of the deceased. But not so in all the regions. Fifty percent of the regions of the Czech Republic showed natural decrease in
population. The most intense decrease in population through natural increase was registered in the Moravian-Silesian Region,
the representative of the old industrial regions, and in the marginal Karlovy Vary and Zlín Regions.
The migration ratios are to blame. The main cause of the uneven distribution of the population through migration in the Czech
Republic is the considerably differentiated attractiveness of the regional job markets. Therefore, it can be assumed, without
the support of any data sources, that it is the younger section of the population, able and ready to establish families, which
takes part in population migration. This fact is certainly reflected in the considerable differentiation of the regional birth rates.
The metropolitan regions “suck out” the young population from the old industrial and marginal regions. This is the reason why
the population in such regions ages considerably faster.
Picture 3. Rate of natural increase in regions of the Czech Republic in the period 2008 - 2017 (annual average). Data source: The Czech Statistical Office:
Demographic yearbooks of regions of the Czech Republic: 2008 – 2017; authors elaboration
IV. THE PRAGUE AGGLOMERATION

The delimitation of the Prague agglomeration was based on the gradual merging method described in chapter 1. A total
number of 166 municipalities in the close proximity of Prague’s hinterland (the non-core zone) fulfilled the conditions for
merging. That means that including Prague, the core of the agglomeration, the Prague agglomeration comprises of 167
municipalities. The non-core zone is formed by municipalities all along the borders of the capital city of Prague, while the
territorial scope can be identified in the eastern as well as in the southern direction.
The non-agglomerated salients in the East and South of the agglomeration are peaceful and relaxing areas in the immediate
vicinity of Prague with minimal economic activities and, therefore, low number of jobs. The condition of the minimum number
of 10 commuters to work was thus not fulfilled and for this reason, such municipalities could not become a part of the
agglomeration. The obviously lower territorial scope of the agglomeration in the western direction is, to an extent, caused by
its proximity to the biggest town of the Central Bohemian Region, Kladno, which presents a rival core.

icshge.org
Picture 4. Spatial delimitation of the Prague agglomeration. Source: authors elaboration
In 2016, the population of Prague was 1,588 thousand inhabitants. The aggregated population of all the merged
municipalities was 308 thousand inhabitants. In total, the population size of the core of the metropolitan region, formed by the
Prague agglomeration, was 1,588 thousand people in 2016. In 2016, the share of the non-core zone of the population of the
whole agglomeration was almost 20 %. Nevertheless, still in 2001, the share of the non-core zone was only 14 %. The issue
of what causes the increase in population representation of the non-core zone is addressed in Figure 1.
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Prague Agglomeration Prague (Core)

Non-Core Zone Central Bohemia Region
Czech Republic
Figure 1. Development of the population (basis index) in the Prague agglomeration (with distinction between the core and the non-core zone) in the Central
Bohemian Region and the Czech Republic between 2001 and 2016. Data source: The Czech Statistical Office: Demographic yearbooks of regions of the
Czech Republic: 1991 - 2017; Database of Demographic Indicators for Municipalities; authors’ elaboration

icshge.org
Between 2001 and 2016, the population of the Prague agglomeration grew by 18 %. However, the relative population growth
of the non-core zone was an unbelievable 63 %. The population of Prague alone grew by 10 % only and yet, the growth is still
two times higher than the average of the rest of the Czech Republic. The data on the whole Central Bohemian Region show
that the local population growth was almost 20 %. Nevertheless, without the non-core zone it was only 10 %.
The significant population growth of the non-core zone of the Prague agglomeration was brought about by a number of
factors. The main factor originated already in the Socialist era. Before 1990, the population growth of Prague within its
territorial district took place thanks to the construction of prefab estates which attracted migrants from, among others, the
immediate vicinity of the city. The suburbanisation processes were taking place neither through residential nor commercial
form. The contemporary non-core zone thus showed relatively low population density, comprising of villages and smaller
towns with population under 20 thousand inhabitants. However, these villages are nowadays becoming smaller towns – of
course, only in terms of population and not in terms of the common urbanistic structure typical for towns in the Czech Republic.
One example for all: Jesenice, south of Prague, once a village, today a town – its population at the beginning of the 1990s was
1,755 inhabitants. In 2001, the number of residents was 2,411. At the end of 2016, however, the number was almost 9 thousand.
35
2001-2008
Net migration per 1,000 inhabitants
30 2009-2016
25
20
15
10
0
Prague Prague (core) Non-core zone Central Bohemian Czech Republic
agglomeration Region
Figure 2. Net migration per 1,000 inhabitants in the Prague agglomeration (with distinction between the core and the non-core zone), in the Central
Bohemian Region and the Czech Republic in the period of 2001 - 2008 and 2009 – 2016. Data source: The Czech Statistical Office: Demographic
yearbooks of regions of the Czech Republic: 1991 - 2017; Database of Demographic Indicators for Municipalities; authors elaboration
The main reason behind the population growth of the non-core zone as well as of the whole agglomeration is migration. If it
were not for migration, population growth would not even be possible. The whole metropolitan region (Prague + the Central
Bohemian Region) is highly migration-attractive as already mentioned in chapter 2. Nevertheless, picture 2 clearly shows that
the migration flows within the metropolitan region head into the Prague non-core zone of the Prague agglomeration.
Unfortunately, no data on the inter-municipal migration flows is available because the Czech Statistical Office does not
publish it. It can be assumed, however, that the process of population migration from the Czech regions would not head into
the non-core zone of the Prague agglomeration rectilinearly. The established model operates in two steps:
1. moving straight into the core of the agglomeration
2. moving into the non-core zone from the core
After 2000, the whole agglomeration as well as the core and the non-core zone registered a higher net migration rate in the
first half of the period analysed, that is before the economic crisis (2001-2008). The similar applies also to the Central
Bohemian Region and the whole of the Czech Republic.

icshge.org
7
2001-2008
6
2009-2016
Natural increase per 1,000 inhabitants
-1
-2
Prague Prague (core) Non-core zone Central Bohemian Czech Republic
agglomeration Region
Figure 3. Rate of natural increase in the Prague agglomeration (with distinction between the core and the non-core zone), the Central Bohemian Region and
the Czech Republic in the period between 2001 - 2008 and 2009 – 2016. Data source: The Czech Statistical Office: Demographic yearbooks of regions of
the Czech Republic: 1991 - 2017; Database of Demographic Indicators for Municipalities; authors elaboration
In the first half of the period of 2001 - 2016, the Prague agglomeration registered loss of inhabitants through natural increase.
Even though this concerned Prague only, it caused the whole area to be passive. The non-core zone showed a positive natural
increase in inhabitants which continued on growing extensively between 2009 - 2016. This is logical. The considerable influx
of the mainly young productive section of the population into the non-core zone between 2001 - 2008 projected itself into a
higher birth-rate which is the reason for the strikingly positive numbers of the natural increase rate in the following period.
V. CONCLUSION
The existence of differentiations between the regional job markets led to an uneven distribution of population through
migration in the regions of the Czech Republic. Two out of three regions defined by the Czech government as the structurally
affected regions showed the highest population loss particularly in the period after 2000. The Moravian-Silesian and Karlovy
Vary Region, as a consequence of migration balance, are simultaneously presented as regions with the highest decrease in
population through natural increase in the period of 2008 - 2017. In one case of the structurally affected regions – the Ústí
Region, classified, just like the Moravian-Silesian Region, as an old industrial region – the assumption of having a negative
migration balance and natural increase was not fulfilled. The reason could be the extremely low prices on the real estate market
made use of by the socially vulnerable groups. This is not good news for the North-Western Bohemia in regard to its regional
development which has also long been facing the highest unemployment rate.
Generally, since 1991, the Czech Republic has been constantly gaining inhabitants through foreign migration. The
positive migration balance of the state is not, however, evenly distributed and due to the inner inter-regional migration, the
regional differences grow even bigger and lead to polarisation. The general economic pole of growth of the Czech Republic is
the capital of Prague together with its natural hinterland. Nevertheless, the Czech Republic has also other migration-profitable
zones such as the Pilsen Region.
A substantial polarisation exists also within the Central Bohemian area which has been proven by the delimitation of the
Prague agglomeration. The period of Socialism was inter alia symptomatic of the fact that in that period, the potential of the
immediate proximity of big towns was not made use of. The attractiveness of a town was limited to its outer borders. Even
though the suburbanisation tendencies had started to appear already in the 1990s, the boom of the residential suburbanisation
came only after 2000 thanks to the development of the mortgage market. After 2000, the non-core zone registered, for Czech
standards, an extreme population growth mainly due to the migration influx of the younger section of the population which
has projected itself into the strong natural increase in population after 2008. A further pressure on the population growth of the

icshge.org
very attractive Prague agglomeration can be expected as well as the continuing tendencies of depopulation of the
environmentally affected old industrial regions in particular. This is currently the biggest challenge posed to the regional
politics of the Czech Republic.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This article has been written with the support of a student grant project as part of a special university research at the University
of Jan Evangelista Purkyně in Ústí nad Labem and with the support of the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic as part of the
grant project ‘Development of trajectories of traditional industrial branches in old industrial regions: governance, participants,
institutions and leadership’.
REFERENCES
The Czech Statistical Office (2007) Database of Demographic Indicators for Municipalities [online]. c2018, [cit. September 20th, 2018]. Available from
WWW: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/databaze-demografickych-udaju-za-obce-cr
The Czech Statistical Office (2007) Demographic Yearbook of Regions of the Czech Republic - 1991 - 2006 [online]. c2018, [cit. September 20th, 2018].
Available from WWW: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/demographic-yearbook-of-the-regions-of-the-czech-republic-1991-2006-0vqhc349s4
Available from WWW: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/demographic-yearbook-of-regions-of-the-czech-republic-2007-2016
Available from WWW: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/demographic-yearbook-of-regions-of-the-czech-republic
Blažek, J. (2002) 'Velké firmy a subjekty progresivního terciéru jako aktéři regionálního rozvoje v České republice' in: Hampl, M. (ed.) Regionální vývoj:
specifika české transformace, evropská integrace a obecná teorie. Praha: Univerzita Karlova, pp. 227-249.
Hampl. M. (2005) Geografická organizace společnosti v České republice: transformační procesy a jejich obecný kontext. Praha: Univerzita Karlova.
Hampl, M., 'Regional differentiation of current socio-economic development in the Czech Republic', Sociologický časopis-Czech Sociological Review,
43(5), p889-910.
Krätke, S. 'Metropolisation of the European Economic Territory as a Consequence of Increasing Specialisation of Urban Agglomerations in the Knowledge
Economy', European Planning Studies, 15(1), p1-27.
Krugman, P. (1991) Geography and Trade. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Massey, D. (1984) Spatial divisions of labour: Social Structures and the Geography of Production. London: Macmillan.
Marshall, A. (1920) Principles of Economics. 8th edn. London: Macmillan.
Novák, V. (2009) Dojížďka za prací a pracovně podmíněná migrace v kraji Vysočina. Ph.D. thesis. Brno: Masarykova univerzita.
Novák, V. (2017) 'The Spatial Delimitation of Agglomerations in the Czech Republic: The Case of Northwestern Bohemia', Littera Scripta, 10(2), p73-83.
Novák, V., Vokoun, M., Stellner, F. and Vochozka, M. 'Institutional Analysis of the Contemporary Regional Labour Market in the Czech Republic', E+M
Ekonomie a Management, 19(3), p4-19.
Ottaviano, G. I. P. and Thisse, J. F. 'New economic geography: what about the N?' Environment and Planning A, 37(10), p1707-1725
Ouředníček, M. and Posová, D. (2006) 'Suburbánní bydlení v Pražském městském regionu: etapy vývoje a prostorové rozmístění' in: Ouředníček, M. (ed.)
Sociální geografie Pražského městského regionu. Praha: Univerzita Karlova, pp. 96–113.
Polášek, V., Ptáček, P. and Toušek, V. (2007) 'Regionální aspekty vnitřní migrace v České republice v období 1991 – 2004' in Česká demografická
společnost (ed.) Proceedings of XXXVII. konference ČDS. Olomouc: Česká demografická společenost, pp. 215-234.
Rumpel, P., Slach, O. and Koutský, J. 'Creative Industries in Spatial Perspective in the Old Industrial Moravian-Silesian Region', E+M Ekonomie a
Management, 8(4), p30-46.
Sýkora, L. and Ouředníček, M. (2007). 'Sprawling post-communist metropolis: commercial and residential suburbanisation in Prague and Brno, the Czech
Republic' in Razin, E., Dijst, M. and Vázquez, C. (eds.) Employment Deconcentration in European Metropolitan Areas: Market Forces versus
Planning Regulations. Dordrecht: Springer, pp. 209-233
Tonev, P. (2013) Změny v dojížďce za prací v období trasformace: komparace lokálních trhů práce. Ph.D. thesis. Brno: Masarykova univerzita.
Viturka, M., Tonev, P., Halámek, P., Hrabalová, S., Kunc, J., Šauer, M., Vystoupil, J., Žítek, V., Ciboch, J. and Maryáš, J. (2003) Regionální vyhodnocení
kvality podnikatelského prostředí v České republice. Brno: Masarykova Univerzita.
Votrubec, C. (1980) Lidská sídla – jejich typy a rozmístění ve světě. Praha: Academia.

icshge.org
Chapter 3.

icshge.org
Economic Role of Forest on Forest Dwellers’ Livelihood in the Central

Zagros Forests of Iran
Mahmoudi, B.
Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, 8818634141, Iran; b.mahmoudi@ut.ac.ir
Abstract—Zagros forests as the vast forest areas of Iran have been the living place of forest dwellers and nomads since the
time immemorial and have been converted into a vital source of livelihood; as such that the revenues obtained from forest
constitute a significant part of Forest dwellers incomes. The approach used in this research has been descriptive and quantitative
analysis by using the semi-structured interview. At first, the effect of the income obtained from the forest on the family's
economy was examined; then, the poverty line and poverty indexes including census ratio, poverty gap, Foster, Greer,
Thorbeck, Amartya Sen and Gini coefficient were calculated and analysed. The results showed that people earn money through
9 living strategies that forest with annual revenue of 27718176 Rials for each family has the second economic portion with
18.07 percent. 76 percent of people are under poverty line which reached 88 percent by removing forest income, and 12 percent
of families were transformed into under poverty line, and this has made 1.54 times increase in depth of poverty. Index of
Foster, Greer, and Thorbeck has been 0.15, and it has reached 0.23 percent after removal of forests. Moreover, the omission
of forest revenue makes 11 percent increases in unequal distribution of incomes.
Keywords—forest dwellers, livelihood, poverty indexes, Zagros forests of Iran
I. INTRODUCTION
F OREST of Iran with an area about 12.4 million hectares comprise 7.4% of the whole country area. While the forest cover
of Iran is considered poor as compared with other countries, it is a unique country regarding plant diversity and genetic
reserves. Approximately 8000 plant species have been identified in Iran. Climatic, diversity especially from the land structure
viewpoint is such that geographers have called Iran the global climates’ bridge. This climatic diversity has given rise to at least
five distinct forest zones. Taking into account the per capita forest area of Iran equalling to 1.3 of world average (0.2 ha as
compared with 0.6 ha), and the current forest cover of 7.4% of the country area, Iran is considered to be amongst the low forest
cover countries (LFCC). Among distinct forest zones of Iran can allude to Zagros forest zone (Sagheb Talebi, 2010). The
forests of Zagros extend from western Azerbaijan province to the southern province of Fars. This forest area is reported to
have covered more than 10 million ha in the past but has decreased significantly to its current 5 million ha following long-
term exploitation. In the Zagros region, the oaks (Quercus persica, Q. infectoria and Q. libani) are the main tree species,
forming pure and mixed stands with other woody species. The most Zagros forest is now semi-degraded and coppiced, after
intensive utilization and overgrazing by cattle (Jazirei and Ebrahimi, 2003). The Zagros forests consist of three parts: north,
central and southern. The central Zagros forests hold more than half of Zagros plant species diversity. Types of utilization of
forest ecosystems in Central Zagros, regardless of ecological capability, create instability in the forests of this region, so that
most of the forests in this area are coppice forest and lacking natural regeneration (Guidance and Sustainable Operation
Guidelines for Forest in the Central Zagros Mountains, 2014). A ‘livelihood’ can be understood as that which “comprises the
assets (natural, physical, human, financial, and social capital), the activities, and the access to these )mediated by institutional
and social relations) that together determine the living gained by the individual or household” (Ellis, 2000). The importance
of forest resources to the livelihoods of people living in and around forests has increasingly been recognised during the last
three decades. (Carter and Gronow 2005, Shepherd 2004). Forest products provide an opportunity to earn income and improve
the livelihoods of the communities around forest and these provide a variable source of income that contributes to meeting
domestic expenditure (Cavendish, 2002; Kristensen & Balslev, 2003) and serves an insurance function in times of crisis like
crop failure (Angelsen & Wunder, 2003). By acting as a source of income, forests are tools for poverty alleviation among rural
households (Angelsen & Wunder, 2003; Cavendish, 2000; Fisher, 2004; Sunderlin et al., 2005).
The role and potential of forest products to contribute to household income helps to uplift households that depend on
forests out of poverty. Having insufficient food, income, and other inputs to maintain an adequate standard of living, or assets
to reach this standard; vulnerability to shocks to the livelihood systems, and inability to cope with and recover from them; and
weaknesses in their position which prevent the poor exercising options that a resource endowment could make available
(Arnold, 2002). There are no timber harvesting plans for Zagros forests, because the native woody species are not commercially
harvestable and the region is ecologically sensitive and seriously prone to soil erosion. Instead, these forests are a rich source
of NWFPs, such as fruits, oak galls, natural gum and herbal essences. Local communities are major shareholders in SPUCs,
which collect and use NWFPs according to approved plans. Non-residents’ main use of Zagros forests is for recreation in the
natural forest parks that the State established near major cities. Local communities in these areas benefit from this kind of
forest use, mostly through temporary and permanent employment. Recently, the government is planning to devolve forest
parks for long periods to the private sector (Yachkaschi et al., 2010).

A. Study area
Among the provinces of Iran, the province of Chahar Mahal & Bakhtiari is completely located in the central Zagros
habitat. The forests of this province, with an area of 307 thousand hectares (18.5% of the province's area), account for 2.1%

icshge.org
of the total area of 14.5 million hectares in Iran's forests. The forests of this province are located in five watersheds of Bazoft,
Karun, Vanak, Manj and Khersan rivers. Northwest to the south-east of the Lordegan township is covered with Zagros forests,
covering an area of 159 thousand hectares and about 43 percent of the town's total. The area studied in this research (Figure 1)
is the customary area of Sardasht in Lordegan township, which consists of five customary ones (Natural Resources and
Watershed Administration of Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari province, 2015).
Figure 1. Location of Study area.
B. Research method
The approach used in this study was a quantitative description and analysis using semi-structured interviews. In this
regard, a questionnaire tool was used with terms that include socioeconomic characteristics, Wood fuel in different uses, and
harvesting of other forest products for each household. This method is the most common method for investigating
socioeconomic issues and dependency factors of forest communities (Schultz et al., 2011; García-Nieto et al., 2013).
Completion of questionnaires was carried out by interviewing the head of households. In this regard, 170 questionnaires were
completed based on the correlation of Cochran sample size (Cochran, 1977). Of the total population of rural households, 18.7%
of them have been questioned. Selection of samples was done randomly, after division in five villages. To determine the
validity of the questionnaire, content validity was used based on the opinions of the relevant professors. Based on the
Cronbach's alpha coefficient, the reliability of the questionnaire was 0.77. After collecting and categorizing data, data analysis
was performed in SPSS software. At first, the type and degree of dependence of local communities were identified in the forest.
TABLE I
SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS OF THE STUDY AREA
Customary Region
Mamour AliAbad AhmadAbad HajiAbad HosseinAbad Indicators
6.50 6.20 6 6.30 6 Average household size
45.10 48.30 35.80 36.30 42 Age Average
26 28 75 77.80 70 Female Sex of people
74 72 25 22.20 30 Man (Percent)
77.90 56 100 100 95.80 Permanent
Residence status (percent)
22.10 44 0 0 4.20 Nominating
43.30 44.40 25 44.40 58.30 illiterate
26.90 33.30 50 33.30 29.20 Elementary
13.50 11.10 25 11.10 8.30 Cycles Educational level (percent)
7.70 0 0 0 0 Diploma
8.70 11.10 0 11.10 4.20 Bachelor
Then, the effective indexes of this dependence were studied, and the correlation of each of these factors was analysed on the
dependence. To determine the amount of timber consumed by each household, according to the data collected in the
questionnaires, at first, the number of trailers, assault load or charcoal pack used during the year was determined based on the
respondents' answers. In the next step, the average number of wooden parts used per volumetric volume was estimated using
the viewpoints of the questionnaire, and the available volumetric loads were evaluated. At the last stage, the diameter of the
middle and the average length of the wooden parts were determined in each volume unit, and finally using The size of the

icshge.org
Huber volume formula was estimated to be:

V = gm × L
V: The volume of the piece of wood
gm: Diameter measured mid-section
L: The length of the piece of wood

A. Socioeconomic characteristics of households
94% of the heads of households were men, and the rest (6%) were women. The age range of the interviewees is more
often in the age range of 40-44 (32%) and 30-39% (26%). The average household size in the customary area was 6.2. 79.4
percent of the households are permanent residents and the rest (20.6 percent) are nomadic. As shown in Table 2, the majority
of interviewees (45% of all interviewed) are illiterate, and the number of undergraduate students only reaches 8%.
B. Dependence on forest
In Iran, the forest is used as a place for wood of construction, energy supply, harvesting of non- wood products,
agricultural produce, livestock grazing, livestock production support and land for agricultural production.
1) Wood fuel harvesting for various uses

Wood fuel is one of the main forest products for forest dwellers, especially in developing countries, and its collection is
one of the livelihood activities in rural communities adjacent to forests. The use of forest wood as a source of energy is the
main form of dependence of forestry communities in Iran. The Wood fuel is used in Sardasht forests in 12 cases. These include
water heating (bathing), baking bread, heating, cooking, heating milk and buttermilk, agricultural tools, house building,
warehouse and shelter, fencing, ploughing for livestock, charcoal, and harvesting of firewood for sale. The annual consumption
of each of these costs for households is presented in Table 3. According to this table, the highest consumption of wood in this
area is the harvesting of firewood for sale, and the smallest amount is related to the construction of agricultural tools. The
results show that a forest household in the customary area uses an average of 18.88 cubic meters’ wood per year, of which
54% is spent on fuel and the rest (46%) is spent on non-fuel consumption.
TABLE II
STATUS OF DIFFERENT WOOD CONSUMPTION PER HOUSEHOLD PER YEAR
wood consumption average Max S.D
water heating 0.27 12 1.42
baking bread 0.55 24 2.75
heating 0.82 60 5.83
cooking 4.27 54 5.74
heating milk and buttermilk 0.19 6 0.72
agricultural tools 0.0003 0.05 0.004
house building 0.009 0.75 0.07
warehouse and shelter 0.10 2.50 0.33
fencing 0.06 1.25 0.18
ploughing for livestock 2.51 20 4.62
charcoal 3.70 75 9.77
harvesting of firewood for sale 5.60 150 18.09
2) Non-wood forest products

Forests of Zagros have excellent status in the vegetative areas of Iran for the production of non-wood forest products.
These products include harvesting of medicinal and edible plants, and seeds and forest fruits.
C. Medicinal and edible plants
The abundance of plant species in the study area is very high, but 21 species of herbs are abundantly used by forest
dwellers. According to Table 3, there are seven types of Medicinal and 14 species of edible. 72.37% of households use
medicinal plants, and 86.47% of households use herbs. The highest consumption of medicinal plants is Arnebia euchroma and
equal to 34.6 kg per household per year. The largest harvest of edible plants for the annual harvest of 9 kg is Allium akaka.
TABLE III
MEDICINAL AND EDIBLE CONSUMPTION
Consumption type species Households Average Max S.D
(%) (kg) (kg)
Thymus kotschyanus 34.71 1.18 10 2.25
Achillea wilhelmssi 56.47 2.16 15 2.86
Anchusa italica 11.18 0.21 5 0.72
medicinal Artemisia maritime 17.65 0.38 10 1.14
Teucrium polium 4.71 0.20 12 1.28
Arnebia euchroma 30 6.34 300 25.65
Dracocephalum 19.41 5.24 60 13.77
Allium akaka 74.12 9 60 11.90
edible
Allium jesdanum 44.71 4.85 50 10.45

icshge.org
Biarum bovei 19.41 0.79 20 2.83

Cichorium intybus 27.06 1.71 50 4.91
Falkaria vulgaris 39.41 2.95 25 5
Gundelia tournefortii 91.41 1.80 30 4.68
Dorema aucheri 6.47 0.51 30 3.10
Ferula Assa-foetida 2.94 0.18 20 1.61
Agaricus bisporus 61.76 7.26 50 9.44
Cardaria draba 5.29 0.16 7.50 0.85
Biarum cardachrum 2.35 0.07 6 0.58
Eremurus persicus 2.35 0.11 10 0.91
Allium hirtifolium 41.18 3.36 50 6.91
Echinophora platyloba 1.18 0.04 5 0.41
D. Seeds and forest fruits

Forest dwellers use five species of seed and forest fruits including Quercus Persica, Pistacia mutica, Pistacia khinjuk,
Crataegus melanocarpa, Berberis Vulgaris are harvested. Seeds and fruits harvested are used both for forest dwellers food
and as a source of livelihood income and livestock’s feeding. The average annual harvest of seeds and forest fruits is 40.4 kg
per household per year (Table 4).
TABLE IV
MEDICINAL AND EDIBLE CONSUMPTION
species Households Average Max S.D
(%) (kg) (kg)
Quercus Persica 48.80 31.44 500 59.90
Pistacia mutica 44.10 3.03 60 6.25
Pistacia khinjuk 34.10 1.57 10 2.78
Crataegus melanocarpa 30 1.53 20 3.63
Berberis Vulgaris 15.30 1.19 30 4.24
1) Forest forming
Crop products in the region include wheat, barley, lentil and dairy products, and horticultural products including tomatoes,
cucumbers, cantaloupe, apples, cherries, apricots, and walnuts. The average annual harvest of products per household per year
is 1638 kg, 99.88% of which is for crops, and harvesting of horticultural products is very limited (Table 5).
TABLE V
CROP HARVESTED FROM FOREST FORMING
crops Households Average Max S.D
(%) (kg) (kg)
wheat 65.30 819.56 8000 1090.89
barley 55.30 722 9000 1177.43
lentil 14.70 69.57 2200 257.01
blister vetch 7.10 25.59 1000 116.31
Horticultural crop 1.80 1.23 90 9.43
2) Livestock grazing
Based on questionnaires and livestock statistics, the number of livestock was determined. In the studied area, 28490
livestock were present. 96% of which is related to livestock of goat and yeanling, sheep and lamb. the average number of
livestock per household is 32 (Table 6).
TABLE VI
DOMESTIC ANIMALS
Domestic animals Households Average Max S.D
(%) (kg) (kg)
Cow and calf 11.80 0.29 4 0.88
sheep and lamb 27.60 12.50 100 24.52
goats and yeanling 44.70 17.82 200 28.13
Mule 2.40 0.03 2 0.24
Ass 38.80 0.85 7 1.32
IV. CONCLUSION
Our findings and conclusion can be found with the correlation between social variables and various wood uses (Table 7).
The approach used in this research has been descriptive and quantitative analysis by using the semi-structured interview. At
first, the effect of the income obtained from the forest on the family's economy was examined; then, the poverty line and
poverty indexes including census ratio, poverty gap, Foster, Greer, Thorbeck, Amartya Sen and Gini coefficient were
calculated and analysed.

icshge.org
TABLE VII
CORRELATION BETWEEN SOCIAL VARIABLES AND VARIOUS WOOD USES
Socioeconomic Wood consumption Medicinal plants use edible plants use Seeds and forest fruits
index
Age *
0.187 0.227** 0.227** 0.082
Sex -0.055 -0.007 0.043 -0.046
Job 0.541** 0.446** 0.496** 0.422**
Education -0.515** -0.225** -0.312** -0.425**
Household size 0.196* 0.248** 0.207** 0.136
Residence status 0.419** 0.632** 0.583** 0.342**
income 0.059 0.263** 0.344** 0.128
cost 0.084 0.176* 0.117 -0.101
livestock 0.291** 0.494** 0.442** 0.352**
Forest farming 0.290** 0.247** 0.427** 0.110
**
Significant in 99%, * Significant in 95%
The results showed that people earn money through 9 living strategies that forest with annual revenue of 27718176 Rials
for each family has the second economic portion with 18.07 percent. 76 percent of people are under poverty line which reached
88 percent by removing forest income, and 12 percent of families were transformed into under poverty line, and this has made
1.54 times increase in depth of poverty. Index of Foster, Greer, and Thorbeck has been 0.15, and it has reached 0.23 percent
after removal of forests. Moreover, the omission of forest revenue makes 11 percent increases in unequal distribution of
incomes.

icshge.org
Urban heat island in maritime Southeast Asia: A systematic review

Cortes, A.C.
Department of Biology and Environmental Science, University of the Philippines Cebu, 6000 Cebu, Philippines;
accortes@up.edu.ph
Abstract—The phenomenon of urban heat island (UHI), where cities tend to be warmer than its neighboring rural area, is one of the many
obstacles to sustainable urbanization. The occurrence of UHI is caused by several meteorological factors, anthropogenic factors, and the
nature of city design. Meanwhile, UHI increases risks of the residing population, affects local weather patterns, and impacts global climate
changes. Although UHI is heavily documented in temperate areas, it also occurs in non-temperate regions. This study focuses on UHI in
maritime Southeast Asian countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, East Timor, and Brunei. These six maritime
countries are characterized by tropical climate; thus, this study would give light into maritime tropical UHI. The main objectives are to:
determine which cities or towns in maritime Southeast Asia does UHI occur; investigate the research tools and methods used to measure
UHI; identify measurement variables used to calculate the magnitude of UHI; and examine the mitigation strategies suggested or employed
by academic researchers to minimize UHI occurrence. In order to attain these goals, standard research flow for systematic review was
adapted and a set of criteria were established for full text analysis. A total of 45 eligible articles were included in the sample, majority of
which were printed or published from 2011 to 2017. The 45 articles were distributed to a total of 17 areas across maritime Southeast Asian
countries except East Timor. Majority of the study areas are in Singapore or in capital cities. On-site measurement at fixed stations is the
most common approach for measuring UHI magnitude. Redesigning of urban areas to increase green open spaces is the frequently proposed
measure to mitigate UHI development.
Keywords—urban heat island, sustainable urbanization, tropical climate, systemic review
I. INTRODUCTION
T HE study of urban heat island (UHI) was concretized by [1] in 1973 in which he established that UHI occurs mainly in
North America and some European cities. Progress in UHI research throughout the years enabled the characterization of
UHI and mechanism of its occurrence. It was found that heat island intensity is greater at nighttime than in daytime, especially
when the sky is clear and wind speed is weak [2],[3],[4]. Heat island is also more pronounced during winter than in summer
due to greater production of anthropogenic heat from air conditioning use [4], [5], drier air, and longer nighttime which increase
surface temperature [6]. For these reasons, the occurrence of UHI in large temperate cities has been well studied. Occurrence
of temperate UHI are exemplified in Quebec [7], Seoul [5], Lodz [3], Tokyo [8], [9], Kyoto [10], Osaka City [11], New York
[12], New Jersey [13], and Paris [14], [15]. Advancements in quantitative analysis and scenario testing proved that there are
three key factors that aggravate the degree of UHI formation: exhaust heat from anthropogenic sources such as automobiles
and buildings; presence of impermeable surfaces having large sensible heat flux; and the “3D urban geometry” which considers
the presence of buildings and the formation of canopy in urban settlements [16]. Reflecting on these three factors, it can be
inferred that UHI could potentially occur in any urbanized area and not just in temperate regions, for as long as the said
conditions are satisfied. In fact, occurrence of UHI in warm regions has gained consideration in the most recent years. The
scope of UHI study had been extended to tropical, subtropical, and even desert UHI [17]. In this paper, I gave particular interest
to tropical UHI in which higher UHI intensities greatly impacts dispersion of air pollutants and increase the need for air
conditioning [18]. Cities already studied for occurrence of tropical UHI includes Los Angeles [19], Hong Kong [20], Delhi
[21], and Mexico City [2]. Nevertheless, investigation of UHI is an integral part in understanding microclimate, energy
demand, and pollution studies.
Specifically, here I investigated the phenomenon of maritime tropical UHI exemplified by Brunei, East Timor (or Timor
Leste), Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Singapore otherwise collectively termed as maritime Southeast Asia. Climate in
these six maritime Southeast Asian countries is generally characterized as tropical under the Köppen-Geiger climate
classification although some areas are further classified as tropical rainforest, tropical monsoon, and tropical savannah [22].
Common to the six countries, two distinct dry and wet seasons develop throughout the year. Shahmohamadi and colleagues
pointed that occurrence of UHI in warm areas aggravate for air conditioning during the summer months [23]. Moreover,
majority of maritime Southeast Asian regions are islandic which implies that local weather pattern is affected by coastal air.
In which case, advection of cooler sea breeze could potentially impact UHI intensity. Differences in climatic conditions
between temperate and maritime tropical regions could contribute to different mechanisms of UHI formation, characteristic
and magnitude. Using systematic review of UHI literatures, this study will provide a coherent understanding of maritime,
tropical UHI. Additionally, a comprehensive and systematic analysis of printed and published UHI literatures would also give
light into the driving forces of UHI in maritime Southeast Asia and would be a useful reference for future UHI studies in the
region. This study could also provide guidance to local governments and urban planners for understanding microclimate. The
main goals of are to: determine which cities or towns in maritime Southeast Asia does UHI occur; investigate the research
tools and methods used to measure UHI; identify measurement variables used to calculate the magnitude of UHI; determine
the temporal and seasonal pattern of maritime tropical UHI and examine the mitigation strategies suggested or employed by
academic researchers to minimize UHI occurrence.
II. RESEARCH METHODS

In conducting the overall research flow, I followed commonly used protocol in constructing systematic reviews [24], [23],
[25], [26], [27], [28], [29]. In terms of database search and full text analysis, I adapted a combination of the method specified

icshge.org
in the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) developed by [28], the method of [26]
for systematic review of contemporary UHI literatures, and the method of [25] which adapted the appropriately known
ProKnow-C method. In the succeeding subsections, I specified the protocol adaptation for each procedure.
Process of database search
The general flow of literature search is shown in Figure 1 which was adapted from the method of [26] and which followed
the four phases presented by [28] namely: identification of articles using database search; screening of identified articles as
well as removal of duplicate results; assessment of screened articles; and inclusion of articles that passed the first three phases.
In this paper, I searched articles in three electronic databases ScienceDirect, Scopus, and Google Scholar. I used “urban heat
island + country” as keywords to search for UHI articles. Exemplary search string were: “urban heat island Singapore”, “urban
heat island Malaysia”, “urban heat island Indonesia”, and so on. Results of the literature search were then checked if it was a
research article, both journal and conference proceedings are included; if so, availability of full text paper is confirmed.
Inaccessible full text papers were excluded because abstract information is not enough for analysis. Studies published or printed
as review papers, books or book chapters, or magazine articles are excluded in the sample. It is worth noting that distinct to
this paper, I included conference articles in the sample contrary to the studies of [26] and [25] in which they pointed out that
conference papers are less thoroughly peer reviewed. Despite the less rigorous review of conference papers, I included such
articles in the systematic review for as long as UHI intensity was measured.
Figure 1. Flow diagram of literature search adapted from [26].
Criteria for full text analysis

In order to objectively select which full text articles are to be included in the literature sample, I used a set of criteria.
Table 1 presents five criteria along with justifications for including or excluding the research article. These criteria were
adapted from the general eligibility criteria of [26] for systematic review and then expanded using the set of filters established
by [25] specific for UHI articles.
1) Language
Despite the fact that inclusion of articles published in foreign language would widen the scope and improve validity of
systematic review [25], in this paper I only included articles published or printed in English due to limited resources for
translation. Non-English articles were excluded from the literature sample.
2) Period
The time period set in this paper is from year 1950 up to 2017. Stewart explained that this period “captures the beginning
of the modern era in urban climatology” [25].
3) Study area
The study areas of any UHI study qualified for systematic review could be any city, town, or even local settlement as long
as it is within the territorial boundaries of maritime Southeast Asia. Throughout the paper, I referred to these areas by name
and are not distinguished into size or composition. In the case of Singapore, recognizing its status being a sovereign city-state
[30], in this paper I simply represent Singapore as is.

icshge.org
TABLE 1
CRITERIA FOR ELIGIBILITY
Criteria Inclusion Exclusion
Language English Languages other than English
Period 1950-2017 Before 1950
Study area City, town, local settlement within maritime Southeast Asia Areas outside maritime Southeast Asia
Data collection On-site measurement (stationary and mobile traverse), UHI not quantified
computer simulations, satellite measurement
Measurement variable Air temperature, surface temperature, temperature difference, Temperature or intensity not measured
heat island intensity
4) UHI data collection

Methodologies used to measure UHI magnitude were not limited to on-site, field measurements only. Usage of computer
simulation for modelling, data extraction from satellite images, mathematical derivation, and the like were recognized.
5) Measurement variable
Acceptable variables for quantification of UHI magnitude could either be as atmospheric UHI, surface UHI, or UHI
intensity. Atmospheric UHI is expressed as air temperature whereas surface UHI is expressed as land surface temperature
hereinafter referred to as LST. In the case of air temperature, UHI measurements were further differentiated into: mean air
temperature and maximum air temperature. Surface temperatures on the other hand were either expressed as mean LST or in
rare cases surface UHI intensity. Heat island intensity is computed as the highest urban temperatures minus the background
rural temperature (Δ𝑇𝑇𝑢𝑢−𝑟𝑟 ) [31]. When articles do not clearly state which measurement variable is used to quantify UHI
magnitude, then data is inferred from tables and figures. Throughout the report, I explicitly stated which of the UHI quantifiers
were referred to.

Following the flow diagram of literature search presented previously, more than 150 articles were potentially to be
included. Subsequently, after examining these potential papers according to the set of criteria, 45 articles were considered
eligible for full text analysis. Areas of study in UHI reports in maritime Southeast Asia are mostly the highly urbanized areas
scattered throughout the region (Figure 2). The 45 articles are distributed to a total of 17 areas across five countries in maritime
Southeast Asia. Among these 17 areas, 7 cities of which is in Indonesia, 7 cities in Malaysia, 1 city in Philippines, 1 district in
Brunei, and Singapore (Figure 3). There had been no published or printed article regarding UHI in East Timor as of 2017, or
at least none of the published literature passed the eligibility criteria set in this study.
Figure 2. Distribution of UHI studies across maritime Southeast Asia (N=45) [Image produced from Google Maps 2018].

icshge.org
Figure 3. Distribution of UHI reports according to country and study area (N=45).
Majority of UHI studies in maritime Southeast Asia region is concentrated in Singapore. Although it is noteworthy that
in most of UHI investigations, priority is given to the countries’ capital cities such as in the case of Indonesia where Jakarta is
the study area in 5 out of 12 UHI studies, the remaining 7 studies being in 6 other cities. The same is true for Malaysia where
Kuala Lumpur is the study area in 5 out of 15 UHI studies, the remaining 10 studies being in 6 other cities. Additionally, the
two UHI reports in the Philippines was dedicated only to the capital city Manila whereas in Brunei, the UHI study in Brunei
Maura district is inclusive of the capital city Bandar Seri Begawan.
After close examination of the time period of UHI studies in maritime Southeast Asia, results show that no eligible articles
were printed or published before the year 1990. Implications drawn from these findings could be the fact that UHI studies in
maritime Southeast Asia only started to develop at least in the past 27 years as compared to UHI studies in other parts of the
world which could be traced to almost a century ago [32]. As a result, it was more reasonable to examine the frequency
distribution of the sample articles for the past 27 years, i.e. from 1990 up to 2017 at a 5-year interval. Almost half of the
samples, 21 out of the total (N=45), were published from 2011 to 2015 (Figure 4). However, 16 articles were also published
within the most recent two years, i.e. 2016 and 2017. It is then safe to say that UHI study in maritime Southeast Asia is new,
and most scientific investigation occurred after 2010.

icshge.org
Figure 4. Frequency distribution of UHI studies in maritime Southeast Asia by 5-yr interval (N=45).
Study approaches
Measurements of either air temperature, surface temperatures or heat island intensity were accomplished through various
study methods. A summary of these techniques and the articles that employed such techniques are presented in Table 2. The
largest portion of the articles mentioned utilization of fixed stations throughout the study area for on-site measurement whereas
only 5 articles mentioned employing mobile traverses. The second largest portion of the articles sampled used LANDSAT
images to calculate for temperature and UHI intensity. Use of geographic information system (GIS) analysis and computer
simulations for mesoscale and microscale climate modelling are also common, most especially the use of ENVI-Met, Weather
Research and Forecasting (WRF), or computational fluid dynamics (CFD) which are often coupled with urban canopy models.
This is confirmed by [33] who enumerated different models as predictive ways to measure air temperature parameter for
deriving UHI. A number of studies introduced new concepts like applying Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometers
(MODIS) in microclimate studies, use of integrated environmental solution (IES) software, and creating new models such as
the model specific to honeycomb township.
TABLE II
RESEARCH METHODS USED TO QUANTIFY HEAT ISLAND PHENOMENON
Method Count Article
On-site measurement (fixed station) 12 [34]–[45]
Data retrieval from LANDSAT image 10 [45], [39], [40], [38], [46]–[52]
Other models 11 [39], [42], [53]–[61]
On-site measurement (mobile traverse) 5 [62]–[66]
ENVI-met 4 [53], [55]–[58], [34], [43], [67], [68]
WRF 3 [69], [57], [70]
CFD 3 [71], [53]
GIS 3 [61], [55], [33]
Characterizing and quantifying UHI

As already mentioned in II. Research Method subsection C, there are various ways to quantify UHI and this is also
reflected in UHI studies in maritime Southeast Asia. Focusing on urban heat island intensity for example, 14 out 45 articles
measured UHI as a single-value nocturnal UHI intensity (Table 3). Highest UHI intensity was recorded in Kuala Lumpur =
283.3 (K) at daytime. Whereas, UHI intensity in Singapore was also high, measured to be 280.2 (K) at nighttime contrary to
that in Kuala Lumpur. Although most areas with high UHI intensity are located in Malaysia such as Putraya, Malacca, Muar,
Johor Bahru, and Kuala Lumpur (Table 3). In the study of [53] on heat island formation in Singapore, he reported a comparable
value of >274.2 (K) increase in nocturnal UHI intensity which he accounted due to aggressive driving. Still in the category of
nocturnal UHI intensity, [54] measures nocturnal UHI intensity as a comparable increase, where nocturnal UHI intensity
Putrajaya was found to increase by >278.2 K from 1999 to 2006. The temporal variation in UHI is unclear due to contrasting
findings. Majority of the articles observed higher intensity during calm and clear weather with nocturnal UHI intensity being
higher than diurnal UHI intensity (Table 3); whereas other studies observed diurnal UHI to be greater than nocturnal UHI [55],
[34]. Seasonal variation for maritime tropical UHI was established in which UHI intensity is more pronounced during the wet
season compared with UHI intensity during the dry season [47], [63].
Maximum air temperatures are another common way that atmospheric UHI was measured. This view was conceived from
the fact that air temperature impacts thermal comfort. In the study of [72] on discomfort index with temperature and humidity
as parameters, he established that in the tropical regions, index range of >303.3 (K) is considered “uncomfortable”. In the
sample articles, 10 out of 45 measured maximum air temperature (Table 3). Highest maximum air temperature was observed
in Depok followed by Tangerang which are both urban areas in Indonesia. Two authors recorded maximum air temperature as
a comparable value, such as in Yogyakarta where maximum air temperature was found to be >311.7 (K) [61] whereas in

icshge.org
Malang >304.3 (K) [51]. Additionally, some authors measured mean air temperature to express heat island strength: Surabaya
= 301.2 (K) [60]; Malacca = 301.2 (K) [67]; Selangor = 298.9 (K) [68]; and Singapore = 304.2 (K)[38].
In the category of surface UHI, mean LST is used, except for one study in which UHI in Manila was calculated as surface
UHI intensity = 300.2 (K) [59]. Areas measured for LST includes: Brunei Muara district with LST ranging from 307.2 (K) to
308.2 (K) [46]; Jakarta with LST of 309.4 (K) [35] or 302.6 (K) [48] or >303.2 (K) [49]; Tangerang with LST > 303.2 [50];
Selangor with LST of > 297.2 (K) [47]; Manila with LST of 302.1 (K) [49]; and Singapore with LST of 297.8 (K) [52].
TABLE III
UHI QUANTIFIED AS UHI INTENSITY IN THE SAMPLE
Maximum air
Study area UHI intensity (K) temperature Characteristic Time period
(K)
Putrajaya [55] 276.1 Nocturnal July 2012
Putrajaya [36] 275.2 Nocturnal July 2012
Malacca [34] 276.1 Diurnal July 2011
Muar [39] 277.2 Nocturnal July 2011
Johor Bahru [63] 277.2 Nocturnal, dry season March 2000
Kuala Lumpur [55] 283.3 Diurnal; annual average 2008-2009
Kuala Lumpur [66] 278.7 Not specified December 2004
Kuala Lumpur [56] 273.8 Decadal increase 1975-1995
278.7 Data shown is maximum measured on a December 2004
Kuala Lumpur [73]
Sunday
Singapore [71][70][70][70][43] 274.0 Maximum value in a scenario testing
Singapore [40] 280.2 Nocturnal May 2003
Singapore [70] 275.4 Nocturnal April-May 2007, 2008
Bandung [74] 302.5 Maximum average for ten districts 2009
Jakarta [45] 310.2 Measured in central business district June-September 2012
Jakarta [69] 306.0 February 2008
Bogor [45] 310.2 Measured in central business district June-September 2012
Depok [45] 313.2 Measured in central business district June-September 2012
Tangerang [45] 312.2 Measured in central business district June-September 2012
Putrajaya [57] 304.4 Measured 16:00 local time July 2012
Singapore [33] 301.2 Highest daily mean
Singapore [37] 302.4 Measured during summer monsoon June 2004
Singapore [75] 307.2 Maximum value in a scenario testing
Mitigation strategies
The growing public concern on health and the environmental risks due to UHI have made the development of mitigation
strategies an imperative. The UHI countermeasures presented here is a summary which I grouped into four unifying themes
(Figure 5) prevalent in the article sample. Examining the total frequency (total=50) of the four unifying themes, it can be seen
that this does not represent the total literature sample (N=45). This can be reflected from the fact that many of the authors
proposed two countermeasures and even some authors proposed three countermeasures [34], [66]. Among the four themes,
utilization of green open spaces is the most prevalent. I listed the themes below in order from highest frequency to lowest
frequency.
Figure 5. Frequency distribution of the most prevalent mitigation strategies for UHI in maritime Southeast Asia.

icshge.org
1) Green open spaces

The concept of green open spaces involves mainly on greenification of urban areas i.e. increasing vegetation to increase
evapo-transpiration from plants thereby decreasing UHI intensity and improving thermal comfort. Nasir even further
emphasized the specific use of mature trees having canopy and crown, thereby having better shade and ventilation provision
compared to non-tree vegetation, to improve thermal comfort and microclimate in the urban areas [68]. Oftentimes, increasing
vegetation is also tantamount to increasing open spaces, parks [73], and water areas promoting increased latent heat flux similar
to vegetation. Urban areas which are commonly modified to incorporate more vegetation include walkways [67], highways,
building roofs.
2) Urban design
Nunez and Oke [76] recognized an urban canyon (Figure 6) consisting of building walls and ground as the basic urban
surface unit. It also contains the canyon-air volume which is the air within the canyon and the top most area forms the canopy
layer. Form and characteristic of urban canopy layer highly impacts microclimate parameters like air and surface temperature
which further impacts thermal comfort. Moreover, it was also found that nighttime UHI formation is affected by urban canyon
and size of town but not affected by weather [62]. As a result, deeper street canyons is a preferred urban design due to shading
effect of tall buildings [77]. This subsection focuses on the role of urban canopy layer to mitigate UHI although some authors
suggest a more general approach with a commonality in implementation of local government policies aimed towards
improvement of urban design. The general investigative approaches include: overall management of urban development [60];
setting of rules and guidelines on building configuration for local administration adaptation [35], [74]; development of
framework [54]; and regulation of building construction materials used, the building construction itself, and building density
[74], [48]. Meanwhile, some authors presented very specific steps mostly directed for urban design and planning. The specific
steps are: zoning [60]; advocacy for green lifestyle [54]; study the factors that contribute to microclimate and then consider
these factors in urban planning [34], [36], [78]; scenario testing [78], which also covers the use of GIS to model effects of
different vegetation and urban arrangements [79]; decrease the use of asphalt and concrete [66]; design urban area in such a
way that it promotes or enhances air flow [66]; consider thermal comfort factor [37]; consider urban ventilation and building
orientation [38]. Also included, still in the theme of urban design, are novel concepts such as the proposed honeycomb township
[56]. Finally, recognizing the heat from vehicles as a UHI contributing factor, the design of vehicles, vehicular parking spaces
[35] and intelligent transport system [80] are also being accounted for as effective countermeasures.
Figure 6. Schematic diagram of canopy layer developed by [76].
3) Building design
The heat of urban environment is also impacted not just by the overall canopy layer but even by individual building [71].
As mentioned previously, deeper street canyon is attained when buildings are taller. Taller buildings in return provide better
shading effect leading to reduced air temperature [43]. Thus, effective mitigation of UHI also involves improving the building
architecture [35]. Improvement of building architecture usually involves controlling the building height/weight ratio, otherwise
known as aspect ratio [48], [71], whereby high aspect ratio buildings are preferable [34], [43]. Goh and Chang determined that
UHI is positively correlated with aspect ratio and suggest increasing the spaces between buildings relative to the building
height [62]. Meanwhile, specific only to the existence of intra-urban UHI, [40] found that this type of UHI is due to human
activities, vegetation and ventilation difference but less likely due to aspect ratio.
4) Use of reflective materials

Another UHI countermeasures is the general use of materials having high albedo rating and high thermal conductivity for
construction of buildings and public structures [36]. When materials have high albedo, the amount of solar radiation absorbed
through building envelopes and urban structures is reduced [81]. There is also a suggestion of using light colors for roof paints
[46] and utilizing reflective pavements [60], [46]. Furthermore, novel products are also suggested such as a new highly

icshge.org
reflective material called PerfectCool used as pavement coating [41] and a retro-reflective film that reflects radiation in the
near-infrared spectrum [42].
IV. CONCLUSION
Using systematic review, a comprehensive summary of past and present researches regarding UHI studies in maritime
Southeast Asia is constructed. Majority of the UHI studies in the region are printed and published from 2011 to 2017. Common
study areas are in Singapore, in capital cities, or in large urban areas. Measurement variable for UHI measurement includes
atmospheric UHI represented by air temperature, surface UHI represented by surface temperature, and UHI intensity. On-site
measurement at fixed stations is the most common approach for measuring UHI strength. Temporal variation in maritime,
tropical UHI is unclear due to contradicting results between researchers. However, seasonal variation in maritime, tropical
UHI follows the same pattern as in tropical UHI phenomenon where intensity of heat island is increased during the drier and
warmer months. Redesigning of urban areas to promote increased latent heat flux, increasing vegetation, increasing aspect
ratio, and use of high albedo rating materials are the frequently proposed measures to improve thermal comfort and mitigate
UHI development. For future studies, I recommend using a tier scheme to categorize published or printed literature.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This research was supported by the Research Dissemination Grant of the University of the Philippines.
REFERENCES
[1] T. R. Oke, “City size and the urban heat island,” Atmos. Environ. Pergamon Pres, vol. 7, pp. 769–779, 1973.
[2] E. Jauregui, “Heat island development in Mexico City,” Atmos. Environ., vol. 31, no. 22, pp. 3821–3831, 1997.
[3] K. Kazimierz and K. Fortuniak, “Temporal and spatial characteristics of the urban heat island of Lodz,” vol. 33, pp. 3885–3895, 1999.
[4] J. P. Montavez, A. Rodriguez, and J. I. Jimenez, “A study of the Urban Heat Island of Granada,” Int. J. Climatol., vol. 20, no. 8, pp. 899–911, 2000.
[5] Y. Kim and J. Baik, “Spatial and Temporal Structure of the Urban Heat Island in Seoul,” Am. Meteorol. Soc., vol. 44, no. 1973, pp. 591–605, 2005.
[6] T. Aoyagi, N. Kayaba, and N. Seino, “Numerical Simulation of the Surface Air Temperature Change Caused by Increases of Urban Area,
Anthropogenic Heat, and Building Aspect Ratio in the Kanto-Koshin Area,” J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, vol. 90B, pp. 11–31, 2012.
[7] T. Oke, “City size and the urban heat island,” Atmos. Environ. Pergamon Press, vol. 7, pp. 769–779, 1973.
[8] Y. Ohashi, Y. Genchi, H. Kondo, Y. Kikegawa, H. Yoshikado, and Y. Hirano, “Influence of air-conditioning waste heat on air temperature in Tokyo
during summer: Numerical experiments using an urban canopy model coupled with a building energy model,” J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., vol. 46,
pp. 66–81, 2007.
[9] F. Chen, H. Kusaka, R. Bornstein, J. Ching, C. S. B. Grimmond, S. Grossman-Clarke, T. Loridan, K. W. Manning, A. Martilli, S. Miao, D. Sailor, F.
P. Salamanca, H. Taha, M. Tewari, X. Wang, A. a. Wyszogrodzki, and C. Zhang, “The integrated WRF/urban modelling system: Development,
evaluation, and applications to urban environmental problems,” Int. J. Climatol., vol. 31, no. 2, pp. 273–288, 2011.
[10] K. Takahashi, H. Yoshida, Y. Tanaka, N. Aotake, and F. Wang, “Measurement of thermal environment in Kyoto city and its prediction by CFD
simulation,” Energy Build., vol. 36, no. 8, pp. 771–779, Aug. 2004.
[11] A. Cortes, Y. Murashita, T. Matsuo, A. Kondo, H. Shimadera, and Y. Inoue, “Numerical evaluation of the effect of photovoltaic cell installation on
urban thermal environment,” Sustain. Cities Soc., vol. 19, pp. 250–258, 2015.
[12] R. D. Bornstein, “Observations of the Urban Heat Island Effect in New York City,” J. Appl. Meteorol., 1968.
[13] W. D. Solecki, C. Rosenzweig, L. Parshall, G. Pope, M. Clark, J. Cox, and M. Wiencke, “Mitigation of the heat island effect in urban New Jersey,”
Environ. Hazards, 2005.
[14] A. Lemonsu and V. Masson, “Simulation of a summer urban breeze over Paris,” Boundary-Layer Meteorol., vol. 104, no. 3, pp. 463–490, 2002.
[15] A. Lemonsu, V. Viguié, M. Daniel, and V. Masson, “Vulnerability to heat waves: Impact of urban expansion scenarios on urban heat island and heat
stress in Paris (France),” Urban Clim., 2015.
[16] Y.-H. Ryu and J.-J. Baik, “Quantitative Analysis of Factors Contributing to Urban Heat Island Intensity,” J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., vol. 51, no. 5,
pp. 842–854, 2012.
[17] R. C. B. J. Hassan A.Nasrallah, Anthony J. Brazel, “Analysis of the Kuwait city urban heat island,” Int. J. Climatol., vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 401–405,
1990.
[18] I. S. M. Elsayed, “Mitigation of the urban heat island of the city of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia,” Middle-East J. Sci. Res., vol. 11, no. 11, pp. 1602–
1613, 2012.
[19] H. Akbari, M. Pomerantz, and H. Taha, “Cool surfaces and shade trees to reduce energy use and improve air quality in urban areas,” Sol. Energy,
2001.
[20] L. Liu and Y. Zhang, “Urban heat island analysis using the landsat TM data and ASTER Data: A case study in Hong Kong,” Remote Sens., vol. 3, no.
7, pp. 1535–1552, 2011.
[21] M. Mohan, “Urban Heat Island Assessment for a Tropical Urban Airshed in India,” Atmos. Clim. Sci., 2012.
[22] M. C. Peel, B. L. Finlayson, T. A. Mcmahon, M. C. Peel, B. L. Finlayson, and T. A. M. Updated, “Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate
classification To cite this version : HAL Id : hal-00298818 Updated world map of the K oppen-Geiger climate classification,” Hydrol. Earth Syst.
Sci., vol. 11, no. 5, pp. 1633–1644, 2007.
[23] P. Shahmohamadi, A. I. Che-ani, A. Ramly, K. N. A. Maulud, and M. F. I. Mohd-Nor, “Reducing urban heat island effects : A systematic review to
achieve energy consumption balance,” Int. J. Phys. Sci., vol. 5, no. 6, pp. 626–636, 2010.
[24] R. G. G. Caiado, R. de Freitas Dias, L. V. Mattos, O. L. G. Quelhas, and W. Leal Filho, “Towards sustainable development through the perspective
of eco-efficiency - A systematic literature review,” J. Clean. Prod., vol. 165, pp. 890–904, 2017.
[25] I. D. Stewart, “A systematic review and scientific critique of methodology in modern urban heat island literature,” Int. J. Climatol., vol. 31, no. 2, pp.
200–217, 2011.
[26] M. Schulze, H. Nehler, M. Ottosson, and P. Thollander, “Energy management in industry - A systematic review of previous findings and an
integrative conceptual framework,” J. Clean. Prod., vol. 112, pp. 3692–3708, 2016.
[27] C. Huang, A. G. Barnett, X. Wang, P. Vaneckova, G. Fitzgerald, and S. Tong, “Projecting Future heat-related mortality under climate change
scenarios: A systematic review,” Environ. Health Perspect., vol. 119, no. 12, pp. 1681–1690, 2011.
[28] D. Moher, A. Liberati, J. Tetzlaff, and D. G. Altman, “Preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses: The PRISMA statement,”
Int. J. Surg., vol. 8, no. 5, pp. 336–341, 2010.
[29] R. Kotharkar, A. Ramesh, and A. Bagade, “Urban Heat Island studies in South Asia: A critical review,” Urban Clim., vol. 24, no. July 2017, pp.
1011–1026, 2018.
[30] P. Y. Tan and A. R. bin Abdul Hamid, “Urban ecological research in Singapore and its relevance to the advancement of urban ecology and
sustainability,” Landsc. Urban Plan., 2014.

icshge.org
[31] T. R. Oke, “The energetic basis of the urban heat island,” Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., vol. 108, no. 455, pp. 1–24, 1982.
[32] I. D. Stewart and T. R. Oke, “Local climate zones for urban temperature studies,” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., vol. 93, no. 12, pp. 1879–1900, 2012.
[33] P. Boehme, M. Berger, and T. Massier, “Estimating the building based energy consumption as an anthropogenic contribution to urban heat islands,”
Sustain. Cities Soc., vol. 19, pp. 373–384, 2015.
[34] E. Jamei, D. R. Ossen, and P. Rajagopalan, “Investigating the effect of urban configurations on the variation of air temperature,” Int. J. Sustain. Built
Environ., vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 389–399, 2017.
[35] W. Zahrah and A. D. Nasution, “Urban Design Guidelines for Shophouses: A Temperature Modification Approach,” Procedia - Soc. Behav. Sci., vol.
179, pp. 308–317, 2015.
[36] A. Q. Ahmed, D. R. Ossen, E. Jamei, N. A. Manaf, I. Said, and M. H. Ahmad, “Urban surface temperature behaviour and heat island effect in a
tropical planned city,” Theor. Appl. Climatol., vol. 119, no. 3–4, pp. 493–514, 2014.
[37] W. T. L. Chow, S. N. A. B. A. Akbar, S. L. Heng, and M. Roth, “Assessment of measured and perceived microclimates within a tropical urban
forest,” Urban For. Urban Green., vol. 16, pp. 62–75, 2016.
[38] J. E. Nichol, “High-Resolution Surface Temperature Patterns Related to Urban Morphology in a Tropical City: A Satellite-Based Study,” Journal of
Applied Meteorology, vol. 35. pp. 135–146, 1996.
[39] P. Rajagopalan, K. C. Lim, and E. Jamei, “Urban heat island and wind flow characteristics of a tropical city,” Sol. Energy, vol. 107, pp. 159–170,
2014.
[40] W. T. L. Chow and M. Roth, “Temporal dynamics of the urban heat island of Singapore,” Int. J. Climatol., vol. 26, pp. 2243–2260, 2006.
[41] W. Wan and W. Hien, “A study on the effectiveness of heat mitigating pavement coatings in Singapore,” J. Heat Isl. Inst. Int., vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 238–
247, 2012.
[42] T. Inoue, T. Shimo, M. Ichinose, K. Takase, and T. Nagahama, “Improvement of urban thermal environment by wavelength-selective retro-reflective
film,” Energy Procedia, vol. 122, pp. 967–972, 2017.
[43] W. Yang, N. H. Wong, and Y. Lin, “Thermal Comfort in High-rise Urban Environments in Singapore,” Procedia Eng., vol. 121, pp. 2125–2131,
2015.
[44] F. Xue and S. S. Y. Lau, “Climate-adaptive Urban Open Space Design Strategy in Workplace for Comfort and Health-Case in Hong Kong and
Singapore,” Procedia Eng., vol. 169, pp. 332–339, 2016.
[45] A. F. M. Zain, P. A. Permatasari, C. N. Ainy, N. Destriana, D. F. Mulyati, and S. Edi, “The Detection of Urban Open Space at Jakarta, Bogor, Depok,
and Tangerang – Indonesia by Using Remote Sensing Technique for Urban Ecology Analysis,” Procedia Environ. Sci., vol. 24, pp. 87–94, 2015.
[46] G. Y. Jose Edgardo L Aban, William Duane, “The Potential Impact of Urbanisation on Climate Change : Brunei Darussalam Case Study,” in 44th
EAROPH & IFHP Regional Planning Conference 2011, 2011.
[47] S. Ahmad and N. Hashim, “Effects of Soil Moisture on Urban Heat Island Occurrences : Case of Selangor , Malaysia,” Humanit. Soc. Sci. J., vol. 2,
no. 2, pp. 132–138, 2007.
[48] S. B. Rushayati, L. B. Prasetyo, N. Puspaningsih, and E. Rachmawati, “Adaptation Strategy Toward Urban Heat Island at Tropical Urban Area,”
Procedia Environ. Sci., vol. 33, no. in 1997, pp. 221–229, 2016.
[49] R. C. Estoque, Y. Murayama, and S. W. Myint, “Effects of landscape composition and pattern on land surface temperature: An urban heat island
study in the megacities of Southeast Asia,” Sci. Total Environ., vol. 577, pp. 349–359, 2017.
[50] A. Wibowo and A. Rustanto, “Spatial - Temporal Analysis of Urban Heat Island in Tangerang City,” Indones. J. Geogr., vol. 45, no. 2, pp. 101–115,
2013.
[51] Purwanto, D. H. Utomo, and B. R. Kurniawan, “Spatio Temporal Analysis Trend of Land Use and Land Cover Change Against Temperature Based
on Remote Sensing Data in Malang City,” Procedia - Soc. Behav. Sci., vol. 227, no. November 2015, pp. 232–238, 2016.
[52] J. E. Nichol, “A GIS-based approach to microclimate monitoring in Singapore’s high-rise housing estates,” Photogramm. Eng. Remote Sensing, vol.
60, no. 10, pp. 1225–1232, 1994.
[53] M. Wagner, V. Viswanathan, D. Pelzer, M. Berger, and H. Aydt, “Cellular automata-based anthropogenic heat simulation,” Procedia Comput. Sci.,
vol. 51, no. 1, pp. 2107–2116, 2015.
[54] S. A. Salleh, Z. Abd.Latif, W. M. N. W. Mohd, and A. Chan, “Factors Contributing to the Formation of an Urban Heat Island in Putrajaya,
Malaysia,” Procedia - Soc. Behav. Sci., vol. 105, pp. 840–850, 2013.
[55] W. Takeuchi, N. Hashim, and K. M. Thet, “Application of remote sensing and GIS for monitoring urban heat island in Kuala Lumpur Metropolitan
area,” in Connecting Government and Citizen through Ubiquitous GIS, 2010, no. May 2016, p. 14.
[56] M. P. Davis, N. A. Nordin, G. P. Reimann, and M. Ghazali, “Reducing Urban Heat Island Effect with Thermal Comfort Housing and Honeycomb
Townships,” Conf. Sustain. Build. South East Asia, no. April, pp. 11–13, 2005.
[57] K. I. Morris, S. Aekbal Salleh, A. Chan, M. C. G. Ooi, Y. A. Abakr, M. Y. Oozeer, and M. Duda, “Computational study of urban heat island of
Putrajaya, Malaysia,” Sustain. Cities Soc., vol. 19, pp. 359–372, 2015.
[58] M. Martin, M. Ignatius, and N. H. Wong, “Predictability of urban air temperature changes from variations of PM 2 . 5 concentration during the 2015
Southeast Asian transboundary haze episode,” in 4th International Conference on Countermeasures to Urban Heat Island, 2016, no. May.
[59] T. Hung and Y. Yoshifumi, “MODIS Applications in Environmental Change Researches in the Southeast-Asian Region,” Int. J Geoinformatics, vol.
1, no. 1, pp. 117–123, 2005.
[60] A. C. Kurniati and V. Nitivattananon, “Factors influencing urban heat island in Surabaya, Indonesia,” Sustain. Cities Soc., vol. 27, pp. 99–105, 2016.
[61] W. Brontowiyono, R. Lupiyanto, D. Wijaya, and J. Hamidin, “Urban heat islands mitigation by green open space (GOS) canopy improvement: A
case of yogyakarta urban area (YUA), Indonesia,” Int. J. Technol., vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 207–214, 2011.
[62] K. C. Goh and C. H. Chang, “The relationship between height to width ratios and the heat island intensity at 22:00 h for Singapore,” Int. J. Climatol.,
vol. 19, no. 9, pp. 1011–1023, 1999.
[63] T. Kubota and D. R. Ossen, “Spatial characteristics of urban heat island in Johor Bharu city, Malaysia,” 3rd South East Asian Tech. Univ. Consort.,
pp. 39–44, 2009.
[64] I. Elsayed, “Effects of Population Density and Land Management on the Intensity of Urban Heat Islands: A Case Study on the City of Kuala Lumpur,
Malaysia,” Appl. Geogr. Inf. Syst., 2012.
[65] I. S. M. Elsayed, “A Study on the Urban Heat Island of the City of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia,” J. King Abdulaziz Univ. Meteorol. Environ. Arid L.
Agric. Sci., vol. 23, no. 2, pp. 121–134, 2012.
[66] I. Elsayed, “The Effects of Traffic Activity on the Intensity of the Urban Heat Island: A Case Study on the City of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia,” Sudan
Eng. Soc. J., vol. 58, no. 2, p. 376, 2012.
[67] K. Saito, I. Said, and M. Shinozaki, “Evidence-based neighborhood greening and concomitant improvement of urban heat environment in the context
of a world heritage site - Malacca, Malaysia,” Comput. Environ. Urban Syst., vol. 64, pp. 356–372, 2017.
[68] R. A. Nasir, S. S. Ahmad, A. Zain-Ahmed, and N. Ibrahim, “Adapting Human Comfort in an Urban Area: The Role of Tree Shades Towards Urban
Regeneration,” Procedia - Soc. Behav. Sci., vol. 170, pp. 369–380, 2015.
[69] L. Tursilowati, J. Sumantyo, H. Kuze, and E. Adiningsih, “The integrated WRF/Urban modeling system and its application to monitoring urban heat
island in Jakarta-Indonesia,” J. Urban Environ. Eng., vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 1–9, 2012.
[70] X. X. Li and L. K. Norford, “Evaluation of cool roof and vegetations in mitigating urban heat island in a tropical city, Singapore,” Urban Clim., vol.
16, pp. 59–74, 2016.
[71] M. Xu, M. Bruelisauer, and M. Berger, “Development of a new urban heat island modeling tool: Kent Vale case study,” Procedia Comput. Sci., vol.
108, no. June, pp. 225–234, 2017.
[72] M. F. Mohd Din, Y. Y. Lee, M. Ponraj, D. R. Ossen, K. Iwao, and S. Chelliapan, “Thermal comfort of various building layouts with a proposed
discomfort index range for tropical climate,” J. Therm. Biol., 2014.

icshge.org
[73] I. S. M. Elsayed, “A Study on the Urban Heat Island of the City of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia,” J. King Abdulaziz Univ., vol. 23, no. 2, pp. 121–134,
2012.
[74] S. Wonorahardjo, “New Concepts in Districts Planning, Based on Heat Island Investigation,” Procedia - Soc. Behav. Sci., vol. 36, no. June 2011, pp.
235–242, 2012.
[75] M. Xu, “Impacts of Building Geometries and Radiation Properties on Urban Thermal Environment,” Procedia Comput. Sci., vol. 108, no. June, pp.
2517–2521, 2017.
[76] M. Nunez and T. R. Oke, “The Energy Balance of an Urban Canyon,” Journal of Applied Meteorology, vol. 16. pp. 11–19, 1977.
[77] E. Johansson and R. Emmanuel, “The influence of urban design on outdoor thermal comfort in the hot, humid city of Colombo, Sri Lanka,” Int. J.
Biometeorol., 2006.
[78] R. Priyadarsini, W. N. Hien, and C. K. Wai David, “Microclimatic modeling of the urban thermal environment of Singapore to mitigate urban heat
island,” Sol. Energy, vol. 82, no. 8, pp. 727–745, 2008.
[79] J. E. Nichol, “A Gis-Based Approach to Microclimate Monitoring in Singapore Highrise Housing Estates,” Photogramm. Eng. Remote Sensing, vol.
60, no. 10, pp. 1225–1232, 1994.
[80] M. Wagner and V. Viswanathan, “Analyzing the Impact of Driving Behavior at Traffic Lights on Urban Heat,” Procedia Eng., vol. 169, pp. 303–
307, 2016.
[81] H. Taha, “Urban climates and heat islands: albedo, evapotranspiration, and anthropogenic heat,” Energy Build., vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 99–103, 1997.

icshge.org
Planning Sustainable Agriculture in Coastal Areas in Turkey with

Tourism Function
Kahraman, C.
Department of Maritime Transportation Management Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, İstanbul University-Cerrahpaşa,
Istanbul, Turkey; cengiz.kahraman@istanbul.edu.tr
Abstract—Turkey, with a coastline of 8333 km, has a very diverse marine eco-systems and this makes it suitable for various
human and economic activities. Today, while industrial activities stand out on the coastlines of the Black Sea Region and
Marmara Region, the Aegean and the Mediterranean Regions incorporate such tourism destinations as Bodrum, Marmaris,
Fethiye, Kemer, and Alanya. A great majority of the arable lands rated I to IV according to land capability classes were
repurposed for tourism as of 1950s rather than used for agricultural purposes. Currently the demographic pressure and the
demand for tourism in these areas are exponentially growing. This poses a serious threat to Turkey’s agricultural future and
high-value agricultural produces. For a sustainable agricultural life in tourism areas, it is mandatory to implement a sustainable
agricultural model in congruence with tourism activities. The identification of “Highly Fertile Agricultural Areas” (HFAA),
the growth of economically high value produces suitable for the climatic and topographic conditions will be greatly
contributory to the tourism in the area. To this end, it is thought that the implementation of a principle model, named
“Integrative Agricultural-Tourism Area Planning (IATAP)”, developed in consideration of geographical principles (related to
physical and human geography), will support the sustainability of the agricultural life in tourism areas. The present study
investigates the relationship between agriculture and tourism with a specific focus on Kuşadası, Bodrum, Marmaris, Fethiye,
Kemer, and Alanya - the most important tourism destinations in Turkey - and offers some suggestions to achieve a sustainable
agricultural life within the framework of “Integrative Agricultural-Tourism Area Planning (IATAP), which will also contribute
to tourism practices in these loci.
Keywords—Turkey, coastal use, tourism, agriculture, planning
I. INTRODUCTION
T HE climate, geographical formations, soil structure, flora and other physical geographical conditions of a geographical
place on Earth form the basis of human and economic conditions of that region and plays a role in shaping these activities
(Pektaş, Kahraman, Alkan, 2018). Within this framework agriculture being one of the economic activities has been one of the
most important human activitiessince the Neolithic agein terms of providing food, and today, too, continues to have the quality
of being the primary sector. Ever-increasing world population and, in parallel with it, growing need for food indicate that
cultivated areas and agricultural production are of vital importance.
Agriculture is the most necessary and prevalent one amongst the major production types in the world. Besides, the facts
that agriculture is the most common economic activity, agricultural soils are the most important resources of the Earth as well
(Özgüç, 1995). Agricultural production is sustainable when it produces food, fibre or other plant or animal products using
natural resources and farming techniques that protect the environment, public health, human communities and animal welfare
(Munonye, 2017). This emphasis on the need to understand agriculture as part of the global agri-food system has presented
new research challenges in which the work of geographers has often become part of multi-disciplinary activity not only within
the social sciences but spanning the interface between science and social science (Robinson, 2018). As is known, agriculture
cannot be done in every region of the world due to natural limitations. In order to grow agricultural products, especially the
ones having high economic value and nourishing quality, it is, first of all, necessary to have climatic, topographic and soil
conditions appropriate for them. This obligation and the need for areas required for agricultural activities coincide with the
regions today where the demand for settlement and tourism develop. This competition causes the misuse of fertile lands in the
coastal regions, gradually turning them into tourism areas.
Soil and water are requiasite resources for the development of food and thus constitute two of the most main resources
for human. These facilities are under pressure by population growth, economic development, and environmental change.
Substantially at future, farmers need to produce more food with limited resources. On the other side, meeting market demands,
global food production has significant links to several fundamental objectives of societies including the reduction of
malnutrition and destitition, improved input to a healthy diet, better govermance and desingnation of fresh water resources,
increased use of extensile energy, and the consevation of climate, ecosystems, and biological veriety. Thus, insights into the
future improwing of the agricultural sector are of great concern to the community and policymakers. To efficiently capture the
complex links between food production and entire development, combined scientific model based rating are needed.
(Schneider, Petr Havlík et al., 2011).
From the scope of Turkey, we see that fertile lands especially on the south and southwest cost are under the pressure of
tourism. Starting from the 1950s, the urbanization movements in Turkey have caused the function of tourism to come to the
forefront in a lot of coastal settlements located in the Aegean and Mediterranean axis of Turkey, and so, according to the land
feasibility scale, most of the soils classified as between I-VI have become tourism areas, growing away from their existing
functions. At present, in the destinations like Kuşadası, Bodrum, Marmaris, Fethiye, Kemer, and Alanya demographic
pressures and demand for tourism increasingly continue. In the last decade, approximately more than 50% of cultivated lands
have changed into the second homes or tourism facilities. This poses a serious threat for the future of agriculture and the

icshge.org
agricultural products having a high economic value (Figure 1).
Kuşadası
Bodrum
Marmari
Fethiye
Kemer Alanya
Figure 1. Location of Turkey's Southwestern Coast
In the coastal regions where the function of tourism is the primary economic activity, maintenance of agricultural
activities, taking the advantage from the highly productive cultivated lands on a maximum level, will provide great benefits
both for the agricultural economy and for the future of tourism in those regions. In the tourism areas of Turkey, making the
tourism and agriculture maintain in a sustainable balance depends on planning according to the geographical conditions
(climate, topography, the class and structure of soil, irrigation conditions, drainage and so on). In this study, investigating
agriculture-tourism relations across Kuşadası, Marmaris, Fethiye, Kemer, and Alanya, the most important tourism destinations
in Turkey, we have tried to develop a model called “Integrated Agriculture-Tourism Area Planning” (IATAP).
II. AGRICULTURAL LIFE IN TURKEY’S SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS

Turkey, with its coastal length exceeding 8333 kilometers, is a country owning the seas having various ecosystems and
important coastal areas suitable for many human/economic activities.As Turkey is located in the middle temperate zone and
owns a topography showing different characteristics since its geographical formations were mostly formed at the end of the
Third Geological Era, important water resources and the existence of various soil types in Anatolia has allowed doing
agriculture in a functional way.
In the tourism areas like Bodrum, Marmaris, Fethiye, and Kuşadası, because the mountains perpendicularly extends
towards the sea, lots of large and small bays and peninsulas formed on the coastal belt and highlands (horst) and collapsed
plains (graben) came to exist, extending from the sea towards the internal regions. These graben plains with the tributaries they
carry in their beds provided the fields hosting the highly fertile agricultural areas near the coast. As for the Mediterranean
region, although the parallel location of the mountains with the sea in Alanya-Kemer regionnarrows the area in the zone behind
the sea, in the highlandsexist fragmented mountainside plains having fertile lands feasible for agriculture surrounded by them.
In these areas, besides the fruits like olives, citrus, grapes, and figs, agro-business products like sesame, tobacco, and cotton
are grown. From a general point of view, the main products of the Mediterranean coastal regionare cotton, sesame, peanuts,
citrus, bananas, olives, figs, and grapes. Another branch of plant production is early vegetable growing and greenhouse
cultivating, which are especially concentrated on around Mersin and Antalya; the production has rapidly increased particularly
in the last ten years. The factors like mild winter conditions, the weather warming early, and the rarity of frosts have a great
role in this development. The production of the region meets the vegetable need of big cities and is exported in a considerable
extentas well. As to the Aegean costs grapes, figs, citrus, olives, various forage plants, and vegetable growing come into
prominence. In the areas we pointed out here, the balance in human and economic activities is being disturbed day to day
against agriculture. The second homes and tourism facilities are rapidly increasing on highly fertile agricultural areas very
close to the shoreline (Photo 1).

icshge.org
Photo 1. Efficient agricultural areas that can turn into tourism areas Photo 2. Agricultural Areas that turn into residential areas
This balance, which is being rapidly disturbed against agriculture because of economic concerns and on the purpose of
profitability, has come to be a threat for the local tourism function. Tourism areas, moving away from their natural
environment, have started to show urban characteristics. This problem can be overcome by planning tourism areas harboring
fertile agricultural lands in accordance with scientific data and by developing agriculture policies in line with tourism. One of
the agriculture methods supporting tourism activities is organic farming. Organic agriculture is a way of agriculture done to
protect the health of people and natural environment. In this method, agricultural inputs like fertilizers, seeds, and agricultural
pesticides are used as far as laws and regulations permit. These agricultural products have a great potential to be the ones
carrying geographic labels (Photo 2) (Kahraman, 2018).
People, traveling to the regions where products with geographical labels exist, do marketing activities like trying the
product in its original location and buy it from there; at the same time, visiting historical and cultural values during this
experience, they perform an important tourism activity. Expanding the place of organic agriculture as a geographical label in
the agricultural life of our country will reduce the environmental pollution originated from agriculture and will have extremely
important contributions in the development of tourism. The interest tourists have in geographically labeled agricultural
products, their demand to see them in their original location and buy them, and festivals organized for this purpose reveal a
tourism activity originating from agriculture (Kahraman, 2018). To acknowledge and develop organic agriculture, national
and regional public policies are needed. These policies must involve all actors concerned with agricultural production, whether
public (national, local) or private, with the support of international development organisations (De Bon, 2018).
In tourism areas, determining highly productive cultivated areas and applying agricultural technics in accordance with
their characteristics will be possible first and foremost by knowing the physical geographical characteristics of the area and by
realizing agricultural planning in the light of scientific principles. Created according to these conditions conservation
agriculture technologies should form an important component of the regional strategy for food security, rural development,
enhanced profitability, improved environmental quality and sustainability of natural resources (Began et al, 2018).
III. 3. DETERMINATION OF EFFICIENT AGRICULTURAL ZONES IN TOURISM AREAS

In any geographical unit, todetermine highly productive agricultural zones, the role of the following six parameters is
great:
 Climate parameters
 Slope and drainage characteristics
 Land productivity class
 Irrigation possibilities and closeness to water resources
 Erosion conditions
 Soil type
A. Climate Parameters
Climate is one of the natural factors, which have effects on human and economic activities taking place in a certain area.
In this sense, it has a direct effect on the agricultural life of a certain region. In the processes of shooting, growing and ripening
of an agriculture product, temperature, precipitation and humidity become determinative in the highest degree. As the
temperature and precipitation characteristics in our study area, where typical Mediterranean climate is seen, are quite similar,
the average of the yearly temperature and precipitation values of 5 regions is shown below.
According to the classification by De Martonne, The Mediterranean climate is described as a type of climate over 20 ᵒC
for 4 months at least and for 11 months at most; yearly temperature is between 11-14 ᵒC; summers are dry; all precipitation
takes place in winter; and there is an inverse proportion between temperature and precipitation (Dönmez, 1984).
In the study, yearly average temperatures and precipitation values have played a positive role on tourism activities and
agricultural diversity. The positive effect of the climate has also been reflected on the product patterns and has made the
cultivation of economically high value agricultural products possible in the tourism areas of the Aegean and Mediterranean
regions. As it is seen in the table, the highest temperature in the summer takes place in July with 26.9 ᵒC and the lowest in
January with 9.3 ᵒC. In these regions the yearly average temperature is 17 ᵒC and does not fall below 0 ᵒC in any months. In

icshge.org
this climate type, the fact that temperatures in winter run around mild values has allowed to grow agricultural products like
olives, citrus, bananas which have high sensitivity to cold weather conditions in the region. In the days when the temperatures
are soaring high, it is unavoidable to see the effects like draught and fadedness in terms of agriculture. In the regions that are
not so rich in terms of irrigation water, although the yield decreases from time to time in the cultivated lands, summer’s heat
plays an important role in the ripening and yield of agricultural products.
TABLE I
AVERAGE MONTHLY RAINFALL (MM.) AND TEMPERATURE ᵒC IN OUR STUDY AREA
MONTHS ANNUAL
J F M A M J Jl A S O N D AVE.
Precipitation 103,5 89,1 72,4 44,5 20,5 3,4 0,4 0,1 20,3 37,4 101,6 110,8 604
Temperature 9,3 9,5 10,9 16,2 20,1 24,8 26,9 26,3 23,0 18,9 13,9 11,6 17
If we look at precipitation briefly, we see that the maximum amount of precipitation takes place in December with 110
mm., while the minimum amount of that in August with 0,1 mm. Although the fact that yearly average precipitation amount
is 604 mm. positively affects the agriculture of products grown in the Mediterranean climate like olives and citrus, which are
commonly cultivated in the region, the severe drought in the months of summer causes difficulties particularly in the cultivation
requiring irrigation (Figure 2).
120 30
100 25
Precipitation (mm).
Temperature (°C)
80 20
60 15
40 10
20 5
0 0
J F M A M J Jl A S O N D
Precipitation Temperature
Figure 2. Average monthly rainfall (mm.) and temperature ᵒC in our study area.
B. Slope and Drainage Characteristics

The existence of lands suitable for agriculture and agricultural technics and plans that are made and applied hardly give
the expected results unless one knows the physical and chemical characteristics and curvatures of these lands well. (Tanoğlu,
1964). High slope values are a factor ruining drainage by increasing the water-holding capacity of the soil. Apart from this, it
causes landslides leading to the loss of soil. It is preferable that the slope in agricultural lands should not be more than 12%.
TABLE II
SLOPE DEGREES
Symbol Meaning Slope (%)
A A Faltness/ Around Faltness 0-2
B B1 Slightly Slope 3-4
B2 5-6
C C1 Medium Slope 7-8
C2 9-10
C3 11-12
D D1 High Slope 13-14
D2 15-16
D3 17-18
D4 19-20
E E Extreme High Slope 21-30
F F 31-45
G G 45+
C. Land Productivity Classes

Classes of lands according to their productivity are determined in terms of features like slope, erosion, drainage

icshge.org
conditions, topographical characteristics, water-holding capacity of soil in a region. Land productivity classes are shown in the
table below. As it is understood from the table, while the lands of class I, II, III, and IV are suitable for agriculture, those of
class V, VI, VII, and VIII represent the ones not convenient for agriculture. In tourism areas, dedication of the lands (apart
from forestlands and forages) which are not suitable for agriculture to tourism facilities and settlement areas forms the main
axis of the agricultural planning in these regions.
TABLE III
LAND PRODUCTIVITY CLASSES
Land Productivity Features
Classes
Highly suitable for agricultural activities - slope values are low - water holding capacity and drainage properties are excellent
I
Very light Slope - slight flooding and erosion - land suitable for agriculture with simple measures
II
Moderate natural barriers - medium severe erosion - exposure to flooding - availability for cultivation of crop plants with special
III measures
Slope up to 20% - severe erosion and flooding - soil depth less – with special agricultural techniques can be agricultural products
IV cultivated
The land is flat but the soil suffers very frequent floods - shows a stony structure, which is wet in most of the year and meadows
V and forests
High degree of slope and low water holding capacity - high limitations -
VI unfit for agriculture - can be considered as meadow and pasture ones
High slope conditions, high slopes - extremely unfavorable areas for agriculture -
VII forest areas and empty fields.
No agricultural activit - soil formation very little - very steep slope - high saltwater and highlands
VIII
D. Irrigation Possibilities and Closeness to Water Resources

Water is a parameter of vital importance. Depending on the agricultural goods to be produced, the lack of rainfall
especially in the growth stage necessitates irrigation. In the centers of our research area, except for the water demonstrating
surface runoff for a period of time, the existence of resources to be used for irrigation is limited. The fact that touristic facilities
in the tourism areas use up the underground water causes the sea to go into the ground water; consequently the underground
water level decreases and the water to be used in agriculture loses its quality because of salinization as well.The two points we
can suggest here is that drip irrigation systems should be extended and that restrictions should be applied to tourism facilities
to use underground waters.
E. Erosion Conditions
Erosion in its basic sense is the fact that lands move from the location where they stand by being eroded in the course of
time by the effects of external forces like water and winds. In fact, erosion is a natural process; however, it gains speed as a
result of the wrong practices in humans’ activities related to lands. This poses problems that are difficult to repair if we consider
that lands come into existence after very long and complex processes. Among these problems come decreased productivity
and narrowed agricultural lands first. In addition to this, in the fields where erosion is effective, an extreme desertification
occurs in lands in time; a-horizon which is extremely important for plant life is swept away and the flora disappeared to a large
extent. In our study areas, in the regions except for Marmaris, in sloping lands in particular, erosion in a moderate degree is
seen.
TABLE IV
EROSION SEVERITY ACCORDING TO VARIOUS SLOPE RANGES
Erosion Severity (%)
1.Degree (no / less severe) 0-13
2.Degree (medium severe) 13-19
3.Degree (severe) 20-48
4.Degree (high severe) 49+

icshge.org
F. Soil Types
The soil types seen in our research areas are given in the table. According to the characteristics indicated by soil types,
the degrees of their arability are weighted between 1-10. Red Mediterranean and red brownish Mediterranean soils expand in
a large area. Though they are not very fertile for agricultural activities, their productivity can be increased with simple measures
like irrigation and fertilization. On the other hand, the best agricultural soils consist of non-calcareous brown soils, colluvial
soils and alluvial soils in the estuaries flowing to the coast.
TABLE V
SOIL TYPES AND AGRICULTURAL AVAILABILITY
Soil Types Agricultural Availability (1-10)
Alluvial Coast Soils 1

Alluvial Soils 10
Brown Forest Soils 5
Lime-free Brown Forest Soils 6
Lime-free Brown Soils 8
Red Mediterranean Soils 3
Red-Brown Mediterranean Soils 3
Colluvial Soils 9
Rendzinas 7
IV. PLANNING SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE

Important tourism destinations like Kuşadası, Bodrum, Marmaris, Fethiye, Kemer and Antalya, which are located on
Turkey’s Aegean and Mediterranean coasts, host millions of tourists each year and new tourism facilities are built every year.
Within the frame of the existing demand, tourism facilities and second homes, exceeding the core settlement areas and
surroundings of the city,are moving across the fertile agricultural lands that are mostly a part of the class I-IV. Today
demographic pressures and demand for tourism are increasingly continuing in these destinations. This has become a threat for
the future of agriculture in the coastal regions of Turkey.
In order to sustain agricultural life in tourism areas and to grow products of high economic value by putting the fertile
agricultural areas to good use, we think that a principal model called “Integrated Agriculture-Tourism Area Planning” (IATAP)
that we developed according to geographical principles (the conditions of human and physical geography) should be applied
on a regional basis.
The implementation phases of this model are shown in articles and schematized below (Figure 3).
Integrated Agriculture-Tourism Area Planning (IATAP)
 Thematic land use map of the present tourism area should be made.
 The current land use map should be unified,to form a layer, with the land use map that is classified as I-VIII formed by
considering the slope, topography, drainage, soil type, irrigation possibilities, and the erosion characteristics of that region.
 In the acquired layer map, according to the land use capability, the empty lands in the class I-IV should be determined as
agricultural areas, should be put under legal protection, and in no way should be permitted to be used for any other
purposes.
 In terms of land use capability, amongst the areas remaining between V-VIII the class V-VI lands representing forestlands
and forages should be taken under preservation for both developing animal husbandry and nature tourism to create an
alternative for sea tourism.
 Except for forestlands and forages remaining out of the lands of I-IV, areas should be determined for settlement and for
new facilities on the lands belonging to the other classes. It should be taken into consideration that new buildings are not
to be built to transgress the shore edge line and the control over this is to be provided.
 Empty agricultural lands belonging to the land capability of class I and IV should be turned into organic farming areas
particularly supporting tourism activities.
 In tourism areas, the best agricultural product to be able to grow in line with physical geographic conditions is to be
determined and its production should be supported. As a geographical sign, these products should be encouraged to be
used for the publicity of the region.
 In the settlement areas measures should be taken against the sources polluting the environment and high-rise buildings
should not be permitted there.
 The use of underground waters in tourism activities should be prevented; these should be benefited as irrigation water in
agriculture.

icshge.org
Physical Conditions Reference Parameters

Temperature range oC
8 oC – 27 oC 2 oC -30 oC 5 oC - 30 oC
(Summer-Winter)
Precipitation (mm.) 600 mm.≥ 600 mm.≥ 600 mm.(≥ ≤)
TOURİSM REGION
Watering Facilities and

Proximity to Water Resources VII-X IV-VI I-III
(1-10)
I-IV V-VII V-VI
Soil Efficiency Class (I-VIII)
Slope and Drainage Status A-B-C D-E-F C-D
Erosion Conditions (I-IV) I II-III IV
Soil Types
Agricultural Availability (1-10) 7-8-9-10 4-5-6-7 3-4
ZONE I ZONE I ZONE I
Meadow, Settlement and

High Efficiency
Pasture and Tourism
Agricultural
Forest Building
Areas
Areas Areas
Integrated Agriculture-Tourism Area
Figure 3. Integrative Agricultural - Tourism Area Planning (IATAP) schematic representation
V. CONCLUSION
Turkey’s Southwest Aegean and West Mediterranean shorelines are tourism destinations having unique natural beauties
in all over the world. The climate of these regions, which is favorable for tourism, creates an extreme demand for tourism with
its nautical characteristics and cultural values. These regions, at the same time, are the area where the agricultural products of
high economic value grow considering its natural conditions. Tourism activities in harmony with nature, environment, and
agriculture will have a sustainable quality in the future, too.
The future of sustainable agriculture in the coastal regions having the function of tourism depends on the planning of
these regions in the light of scientific findings. It is important that the physical geographic factors, notably the degree of
capability of the land, should be taken into consideration, and that the lands included in the capibility class of I-V in particular
should be used as mere agricultural lands. Organic agriculture, a way of agriculture supporting tourism, is also an important
option for these regions. Agricultural products raised in a high quality can play an important role in the publicity by getting
into the world markets with the geographical labels they will receive. This mission will also enable to strengthen alternative
ways of tourism in the regions harboring historical, cultural, and natural characteristics besides sea tourism.
There is no doubt that the existence of agriculture in an area is to help protect its natural characteristics and rural identity.
However, on the southwestern coasts harboring Turkey’s very important tourism centers, agricultural features are decreasing
day by day. In the case of putting IATAP model into practice, which is in line with geographical principles as we explained in
general terms in this study, an important step will have been taken to eliminate this problem. In addition, in order to prevent
highly productive agricultural areas from being used out of purpose, introducing legal limitations and strict control will play
an important role. To raise the awareness of non-governmental organizations, farmers and local population on this issue,
organizing various seminars, festivals, and trainings will contribute to this end.
REFERENCES
Began, A. et al, (2018). Conservatıon Agrıculture: A New Paradıgm in Modern Agrıculture to Increase Resource Use Effıcıency. International Journal of
Agriculture Sciences (10).18 pp.-7168-7171.
De Bon, H. (2018). Organic Agriculture in Africa: a Source of Innovation for Agricultural Development Through Perspective. Cirad Agriculture Research
For Development. October. pp. (1-4).
Dönmez, Y. (1984). General Climatology and Climate Studies. Istanbul University Publications. (247), p.4.
Kahraman, C. (2018). Land Use of Kuşadası Coastal Area and Problems. Artikel Publishing House. pp. 284-285.

icshge.org
Munonye, J.O. (2017). A Review on Climate Change and Sustainable Agriculture in Southeast Nigeria. World Academy of Science, Engineering and
TechnologyInternational Journal of Biological, Biomolecular, Agricultural, Food and Biotechnological Engineering. (11), 6. pp.353-356.
Özgüç, N. (1995). Economic Geography. Çantay Book-house, p.66.
Pektaş, G., Kahraman, C,. Alkan, G. (2018). Evaluation of Geographical Indications and Export Marketing in terms of Turkey. Eastern Geographical
Review. 23(39), pp.65-82.
Robinson, G,M. (2018). New frontiers in agricultural geography: Transformations, Food Security, Land Grabs and Climate Change. Boletín de la
Asociación de Geógrafos Españoles. (78), 1.
Schneider, Petr Havlík et al. (2011). Impacts of Population Growth, Economic Development, and Technical Change on Global Food Production and
Consumption. Fritz b Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Agricultural Systems journal, Elsevier Agricultural Systems Science Direct: 204.
Tanoğlu, A. (1964). Soil in Turkey. Journal of Istanbul University Faculty of Economics, XXIII. (3-4) p.2.

icshge.org
Flooding in Benin City, Nigeria

Iyalomhe, F.O.,1,2,* and Cirella, G.T.3
1
Department of Environmental Science and Natural Resource Management, National Open University of Nigeria, Abuja,
Nigeria; * fo.iyalomhe@polocentre.org
2
Polo Centre of Sustainability, Imperia, Italy
3
Chair of Transport Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Gdansk, Sopot, Poland
Abstract—Recent flood disasters in Benin City, Nigeria have claimed a number lives, damaged property and threatened the
overall livelihood of residents. The aim of this review is to prioritise mitigation by examining easily read, rapidly accessible
flood hazard mapping data, as well as, assessing and identifying areas within Benin City prone to flooding. Flood events and
flood management intertwine to present critical environmental problems, hazard and resilience functionality of the City. Severe
floods occur in areas occupied by humans, which has detrimental cause-and-effect on the economy – specifically business
stock, patronage, productivity and disruption to utilities. Preliminary research is presented in this paper.
Keywords—flooding events, flood management, Benin City
I. INTRODUCTION
U URBAN flooding is a key impact of climatic and meteorological-oriented changes, and is considered a major, immediate
and serious environmental problem confronting municipal authorities in developing countries. It is a critical
environmental problem and major hazard, which continuously affects the effective functioning of urban ecosystems, especially
in the areas of infrastructure and service provision, which are germane to sustainable livelihood. When severe floods occur in
areas occupied by humans, they create natural disasters, which involve the loss of human life and property, and cause serious
disruption to the activities of large urban and rural communities. The economy is also severely affected by flooding as
businesses may lose stock, patronage, productivity and disruption to utilities; and transport infrastructure can be adversely
affected on a wider area. In 2004, according to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, the ten
years between 1993 to 2002 flood disasters affected more people across the world (estimated at 140 million per year on
average) than all other natural or technological disasters put together (Few 2013). Furthermore, according to the Federal
Ministry of Environment, the negative effect of climate change, which manifested in a wave of flooding across Nigeria in
recent times, is capable of derailing the process of the actualization of UN’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This
indeed is a big threat to the progress already made in eradicating extreme poverty and disease. The damage caused by urban
flood is on the rise because of intensified climate changes, and this accentuates the need for consistent studies of flood
characteristic and the specific impacts in local areas, such that appropriate disaster risk reduction strategies can be implemented
timely and effectively.
Flooding is the overflowing, or eruption, of a great body of water over land not usually submerged with widespread and
devastating impacts on local areas, everyday lives, livelihood, as well as on local and national economies. Flooding also occurs
when there is a storm surge, even without rains in the region of flooding. It is one of the most common of all environmental
hazards and regularly claims more than 20,000 lives per year and adversely affects approximately 75 million people worldwide
(Ahern et al. 2004; Vitousek et al. 2017; Radojevic, Breil, and Chocat 2010).
Generally, environmental problems have not been adequately addressed even in most developed nations’ urban centres.
However, as in developing countries, the impacts of regional climate changes are posing tremendous risk, e.g., urban and local
flooding, in particular, has caused significant risk and damage.
The city of Benin, Edo State, Nigeria is vulnerable to climate change impacts due to its topology, climate vegetation, soils
economic structure, and population size and settlement patterns, especially flooding. This paper investigates regional
challenges and prospects of urban flooding in Nigerian cities, and how the major floods can be effectively controlled,
eliminated or even avoided to avert its impact on human activities, through examination of flooding and socio-economic
activities in Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria. This research assesses the nature and causes of flooding in Benin City, and provides
feasible and sustainable solutions to flood management in Benin City. To achieve this, the objectives of the study include (1)
examine the factors that are responsible for urban flooding in Benin City, (2) identify the flood prone areas in the City, (3)
Assess the major impacts of flooding in these areas, and (4) establish feasible control and management strategies for urban
flooding in Benin City. Flooding is one of the natural disasters ravaging the Africa continent and the Nigeria society and its
citizens have not been exempted in recent times. In recent past, the consequences of floods on the physical environment,
economic and social well-being of the inhabitants of urban cities in Nigeria have been recognized as massive.
Kolawole et al. (2011) assert that flooding affects more people on an annual basis than any other form of natural disaster.
A variety of climatic and non-climatic processes influence flood processes, resulting in river floods, flash floods, urban floods,
sewer floods, glacial lake outburst floods and coastal floods. These flood-producing processes include intense and or long-
lasting precipitation, snow melt, and dam break, reduced conveyance due to jams or land-slides or by storm. There have been
flood disasters in various part of the country, as virtually all the states have witness flood at one time or another.
II. STUDY AREA

The study area is Benin City in Nigeria. The city serves as the principal administrative and socio-economic centre for

icshge.org
both Oredo Local Government and Edo State in Nigeria. Benin City is a humid tropical urban settlement, which comprises
three Local Government Areas namely Egor, Ikpoba Okha, and Oredo. Benin City is a narrowed, key-shaped, north to south
strip of land in West Africa. The area is about 1125 km² and situated on fairly flat land, about 8.5km above sea level. Located
between latitude 6° 44'N and 6°21'N and longitude 5°35'E and 5°44'E (Figure 1), Benin City lies in the thick equatorial
rainforest zone, prone to heavy rainfall. A relatively dry season occurs between November and March, and between April and
October a very wet season. Continuous rainfall periods ranging from 10- 12 days are often experienced in Benin. Average
rainfall between 2000 mm-2500 mm occurs with a mean monthly temperature of 28°C. The city is well drained by two major
rivers – Ikpoba River, which drains the Northeast of the city, and Ogba River, which drains the southwest of the city. The
vegetation is predominantly the evergreen rainforest while urban development has drastically reduced the vegetation.
Benin City hosts many socio-economic activities in the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors, dominated by government
in the formal sector and brass casting, wood carving and blacksmith in the informal sector. Major markets are located within
Benin City namely Oba, New Benin, Oliha, Uselu, Agbado and Edaiken markets. It is also a place known for its cultural
integrity spanning from the time of the Ogiso dynasty (first dynasty) to the present Oba.
Figure 1. Map of Edo State showing the case study area. Source: Ministry of Lands and Survey, Benin City 2009
III. METHODOLOGY
There are many approaches to defining floods. This paper examines floods as related to rainfall intensity and human
activities. In order to provide data for the analysis of flooding in Benin City, data was collected from field studies and secondary
sources.
A. Sources of data
The study collected primary data through questionnaires, field observation and interviews made during the research on
the study area. Sources of secondary data comprised academic books, journals, public media (magazines), and annual rainfall
data collected from the archives of the Nigeria Meteorological Agency and Nigerian Institute for Oil Palm Research (NIFOR)
Agro- Metrological Station Benin-City. The mean annual rainfalls of Benin City were computed from the minimum and the
maximum temperature data.
B. Sample selection
Primary data needed for the research was acquired by a sample survey in Benin City. In view of the enormous area liable
to flooding, the three main local governments that make up the study area were selected, and 105 questionnaires were randomly
distributed among the study population. The 105 questionnaires were distributed with 35 in each of the three local governments.

icshge.org
C. Data on rainfalls
The rainfall data consist of data collected for thirteen years (2000-2012), covering the daily, monthly and annual rainfall.
Data was also collected from academic books, unpublished manuscripts and academic journals, library research. This was
supplemented by face-to-face expert interviews with representatives from the Ministry of Environment and public utilities in
order to access firsthand data on previous flooding events and how these were handled.
Questionnaires provided access tacit or unpublished facts from respondents. The questionnaire was designed in an open-
ended format to extract information on the land use pattern, and on how respondents perceived and experienced causes of
flooding, nature of drainage in the study area, sanitation and sewage disposal, the most flood prone months, flood risk areas as
well as other effects of flooding on the people. The flood-affected locations were visited, and almost all the people that were
included as respondents had lived in flood-prone areas for about 10 years and more. The respondents were able to identify the
causes of flooding as well as the impacts of flooding, where the latter includes property damages and health risks. They gave
factors suspected as responsible for several floods in the area measures adopted to stop or check the flood menace in the area.
Respondents also experienced that measures implemented to mitigate flooding were grossly inadequate and at most times
ineffective. The respondents were additionally confronted with a population density map of the study area to help relate the
occurrence of flooding to human activities and/or human concentration. A flood risk map of the study area was developed to
reveal the areas that were prone to flooding.
D. Study population
Benin City is made up of three main local government areas: Egor, Ikpoba Okha, and Oredo. The 2006 records of the
National Population Commission of Nigeria, reads that the three local Government areas has a population of 1.1million people
that includes, Oredo- 374,515; Egor: 340,287; Ikpoba Okha: 372,080.
TABLE I
RESPONDENTS’ DISTRIBUTED INTO SECTORS
Local Govt Areas Civil Servants Traders Transporters Farmers Others TOTAL
OREDO 5 10 10 5 5 35
EGOR 5 10 10 5 5 35
IKPOBA OKHA 5 10 10 5 5 35
Total not returned 0 2 7 3 0 12
Total returned 15 28 23 12 15 93
105 questionnaires were distributed and 93 (88.8%) were retrieved while 12 (11.2%) was not retrieved. The tables below
present data from this survey (Table 1).
IV. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Rainfall data was calculated using descriptive statistics, specifically mean, standard deviation and variance. In addition,
frequency distribution and bar graphs were also used to enhance analysis of data acquired (Table 2).
TABLE II
RAINFALL ANALYSIS OF THE STUDY AREA
S/N YEAR ANNUAL RAINFALL (X-X), X=1911.76 (X1-X)2

1 2000 1816.3 -95.46 9112.6116
2 2001 1709.5 -202.26 40909.1076
3 2002 2135.8 224.04 50193.9216
4 2003 1703 -208.76 43580.7376
5 2004 1928.8 17.04 290.3616
6 2005 1595 -316.76 100336.898
7 2006 1972.9 61.14 3738.0996
8 2007 2036.5 124.74 15560.0676
9 2008 1891.7 -20.06 402.4036
10 2009 1792 -119.76 14342.4576
11 2010 1814.3 -97.46 9498.4516
12 2011 2087.3 175.54 30814.2916

icshge.org
13 2012 2369.8 458.04 209800.642
N=13 Σ=24852.9 Σ=559394.343
Mean = Σx/n = 24852.9/13 = 1911.76

Standard Deviation = √Σ(x1-x)/n = 559394.343/ 13 = 43030.3341
Variance = (Standard Deviation) 2 = (43030.3341) 2 = 207.4375
Table 2 shows that 95% of the respondents affirmed the occurrence of flood in Benin City. 5% of the respondents disagree.
According to Table 3, it shows that the year 2012 and 2002 had the highest flood occurrence (15% and 14% respectively)
during the 13 years. Year 2011 and 2007 with 12% and 9% respectively. 2004, 2005 and 2006 all had 4%, 5%, 5% respectively
and the lowest was 2008 with 3%.
TABLE III
HIGHEST DURATION OF FLOOD OCCURRENCES (ANNUAL)
YEAR OF FLOODS OREDO EGOR IKPOBA OKHA TOTAL %
2000 2 2 3 7 8%
2001 4 1 1 6 6%
2002 4 4 5 13 14%
2003 1 3 2 6 6%
2004 2 1 1 4 4%
2005 2 1 2 5 5%
2006 2 2 1 5 5%
2007 2 2 4 8 9%
2008 1 1 1 3 3%
2009 3 2 1 6 6%
2010 3 3 1 7 7%
2011 4 3 4 11 12%
2012 5 3 6 14 15%
TOTAL 33 28 32 93 100%
V. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

The questionnaire reveals that during the period 2000-2012 and among the perception of what causes floods, heavy
rainfall is the highest with 40%, followed by blockage of drainages with 31%. Rainfall affects most parts of Benin City. The
effects are mostly felt in Oredo and Ikpoba Okha where improper waste disposal accentuates the impact of heavy rainfalls ins
and worsen the flood situation.
Flooding in Benin City area is also influenced by the flat and table land nature of the area with high water table due to its
proximity to the Atlantic Ocean. Areas like Teachers’ House of Siluko Road, Uwelu Road by Ogida Primary School, Ekenwan
Road, Uselu Lagos Road by Tom line Building, Five Junction and Adolor Junction along New Lagos Road, which have poorly
constructed drainages, are especially at risk. These areas have high populations, which amplifies the impacts of flooding.
The questionnaire reveals that one of the major causes of flooding in Benin City is over-population. As the population of
Benin City continually increase, the carrying capacity of the area is exceeded. The result of this change is improper waste
disposal as experienced in the study area. The major loss that is experienced from flood occurrence is the destruction of
property and destruction of houses. Psychological fear is the major inconvenience associated in flood occurrences. Increasing
population causes development to gradually expand thus urbanization processes begin to increase due to the increased human
activity associated with population growth. The result of these changes is an unprecedented change in land use. Population
growth and urbanization have led to land use changes as the population continuously struggle for survival. Agricultural land
use has been encroached by industrial and commercial land uses, causing more natural soil surfaces to be paved or tarred
thereby impeding infiltration of rainwater and promoting the occurrence of flooding.
Benin City remains the commercial and industrial nerve Area of Edo state. The Area Benin City is consistently
experiencing fast growth and expansion as well development of new areas both in the core of the city and its periphery
especially in Oredo Local Government Area. The increase in built up areas of the city, implies increase in the surface cores of
urban landscape, leading to reduction in the infiltration capacity of the soil, thereby generating higher magnitude of runoff as
compared with the pre-urbanization period. Increasing population has further worsened the scenario in Benin City, considering
the fact that higher number of this population is traders, producing waste which will fill up the drainage ways. In this research,
three flood prone areas where studied namely; Oredo, Egor and Ikpoba Okha. However, rainfall remains the most suspected
cause of flooding due to the sub-equatorial climatic location of Edo state and Benin City in particular. Flooding has been
shown to have various effects on the human activities on one hand and the environment on the other hand. The effect of
flooding is no longer in doubt as it has often put socio-economic activities and progress of places in the nation and Edo State
to bottleneck, especially in recent times making human survival almost difficult if not impossible.
Flood forecasting has to be well developed with standard modern technique of predicting the occurrence of flood. This
will also be supplemented by the construction of flood frequency curves to determine the occurrence frequency of floods in
certain areas. Warning of flood plain occupant before flood occurrence will help reduce the flood damages and loses as
emergency action to guide against the destructive effect of flood may be highly efficient. Government agencies, authorities,
planners, environmentalists, practitioners of the built environment international organization and individuals must work in

icshge.org
synergy to evolve a comprehensive approach that would emphasize more on the means of reducing flood damages over a long
time. This process would rely on both indigenous and advanced techniques to abating flood problems in the country and Benin
City in particular. Government should also put more efforts especially in the creation of more drainage system as well as other
ways of controlling flooding. Stringent land use policies and development control tools must be implemented to control
development on flood plain. These procedures should significantly ameliorate flood occurrence and maybe flooding could be
perceived as a natural phenomenon and not a natural disaster.
REFERENCES
Ade, M.A. The menace of Floods in the Benue Trough and Vulnerability Analysis: 2017 Flood. In Geophysical Research Abstracts, 8–13 April 2018;
European Geosciences Union: Vienna, Austria, 2018; Volume 20, p. 3.
Adeloye, A.J.; Rustum, R. Lagos (Nigeria) Flooding and Influence of Urban Planning. Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng.—Urban Des. Plan. 2011, 164, 175–187,
doi:10.1680/udap.1000014.
Aderogba, K.A. Qualitative Studies of Recent Floods and Sustainable Growth and Development of Cities and Towns in Nigeria. Int. J. Acad. Res. Econ.
Manag. Sci. 2012, 1, 1.
Agbonkhese, O.; Aka, E.G.; Ocholi, J.; Adekunle, M. Flood Menace in Nigeria: Impacts, Remedial and Management Strategies. Civ. Environ. Res. 2014, 6,
32–41.
Ahern, M, S Kovats, F Matthies, and R Few. 2004. “Health Impacts of Flooding: A Global Systematic Review.” Epidemiology 15 (4): 115–33.
Etuonovbe, A.K. The Devastating Effect of Flooding in Nigeria; UNOCHA: Marrakech, Morocco, 2011.
Few, R. 2013. “Flood Hazards, Vulnerability and Risk Reduction.” In Flood Hazards and Health: Responding to Present and Future Risks, Few, R., 20.
London: Routledge. doi:10.4324/9781849771351-9.
International Water Management Institute. Flood risk mapping: Nigeria – IWMI. Available online:
http://waterdata.iwmi.org/Applications/nigeria_Flood_Mapping/ (accessed on 31 July 2018).
Komolafe, A.A.; Adegboyega, S.A.-A.A.; Akinluyi, F.O. A Review of Flood Risk Analysis in Nigeria. Am. J. Environ. Sci. 2015, 11, 157–166,
doi:10.3844/ajessp.2015.157.166.
Okoduwa, A.I. An Application of GIS to Flood Prediction: A Case Study of Benin City, Nigeria; Thesis Dissertation, Department of Geography and
Planning, University of Benin: Benin, Nigeria, 1999.
Paterson, D.L.; Wright, H.; Harris, P.N.A. Health Risks of Flood Disasters. Clin. Infect. Dis. 2018, doi:10.1093/cid/ciy227.
Radojevic, Biljana D., Pascal Breil, and B. Chocat. 2010. “Assessing Impact of Global Change on Flood Regimes.” International Journal of Climate Change
Strategies and Management 2 (2). Emerald Group Publishing Limited: 167–79. doi:10.1108/17568691011040416.
Tokunbo, A.; Ezigbo, B. Floods Claims 363 Lives, Displace 2.1 People Says NEMA; All African: Ibadan, Nigeria, 2012.
UNOCHA. Nigeria: Humanitarian Response Plan; United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs: Abuja, Nigeria, 2018.
Vitousek, Sean, Patrick L. Barnard, Charles H. Fletcher, Neil Frazer, Li Erikson, and Curt D. Storlazzi. 2017. “Doubling of Coastal Flooding Frequency
within Decades Due to Sea-Level Rise.” Scientific Reports 7 (1). Nature Publishing Group: 1399. doi:10.1038/s41598-017-01362-7
Whitworth Malcolm, N.U.; Malcolm, W.; Brian, B. Flooding and Flood Risk Reduction in Nigeria: Cardinal Gaps. J. Geogr. Nat. Disasters 2015, 5, 136,
doi:10.4172/2167-0587.1000136.

icshge.org
The Effects of Organic Products on Buying Behavior of Parent

Families: A Local Sample from Turkey
Eroğlu Pektaş, G.Ö.,1 and Karadeniz, M.2
1
Istanbul University-Cerrahpaşa, Engineering Faculty- Department of Maritime Transportation and Management
Engineering, İstanbul, Turkey; guzideoncum@istanbul.edu.tr
2
National Defense University, Naval War Institute, Istanbul, Turkey; mkaradeniz01@yahoo.com
Abstract—Agriculture has always occupied a significant place in humans’ lives and remains to be a primary sector today.
Recent research has evidenced that a great majority of the modern agriculture products pose threats to human health due to
artificial agricultural inputs. In this sense, the importance of ecological agriculture should be highlighted. Ecological
agriculture is known as the agricultural practice where such agents as pesticides and insecticides, fertilizers, and artificial seeds
are intensively used and the least human intervention is introduced into the natural environment of the produces. Climate
change, industrialization, and overly growing global population in the 21st century have brought along many factors
detrimental to human health. It is known that children are important for families and this importance exerts effects on families’
purchasing behaviors with the technological, economic, cultural, and social changes such as faulty population planning in
metropolitans, increased education level, economic and social conditions. The present study investigates the attitudes of
families with children towards ecological agriculture. Specifically, this research investigates the importance of ecological
agriculture and its development in Turkey and analyzes how customers of ecological agriculture act if and when they have
children. It interprets the relationship between the contrived research model and the obtained results. In this study, the effects
of organic products on buying behavior of parent families is researched and face-to-face questionnaire was applied to 245
parent families who live in Istanbul and SPSS program has been used for frequency, reliability and correlation analyses.
LISREL structural equation modelling has been used in order to test the significance and reliability of our model. As a result
of the analysis, goodness of fit indexes, t-values and standardized solution values have been analysed. According to the findings
obtained from the research, it is seen that the most important factor effecting customer satisfaction is trust.
Keywords—ecological agriculture, consumer behavior, scale development, sustainability
I. INTRODUCTION
D UE to the increase of world population and food requirement, with the time and quantity constraints is led the product
manufacturers to conventional agricultural practices where the use of chemical inputs was intense to achieve faster and
more output. However, the negative effects of the conventional agricultural method on the both ecological system and the
health of the human beings, which increase the output and producer profit, have started to be noticed by the environment-
conscious groups which has focused on the subject. Therefore, the development of environmentally friendly production
methods that do not harm the ecological system and human health, which also support the sustainability with environmentally
friendly methods have come to the agenda (Ayla, Altıntaş, 2017).
Sustainable development is a contested concept with a wide range of meanings. It is embraced by big business,
governments, social reformers and environmental activists, all of which put their own interpretation on what sustainable
development means. After initial reluctance, 95% of large companies in Europe and the USA now believe that sustainable
development is important. (Giddings, Hopwood, O. Brien, 2002).
Organic agriculture works to reestablish the natural balance that is lost as a result of wrong practices in order to protect
the natural environment and human health. (Kahraman, 2018) The main objectives of organic agriculture are, to use human
and environmentally friendly production systems instead of synthetic chemical drugs and fertilizers, alternating agriculture,
soil conservation, increasing the resistance of the plant, using parasites and predators instead of chemicals. It is also a certified
production method which aims to increase the quality of the product instead of quantity in production. (Rehber, 1991; Turhan,
2005)
The fact that organic agricultural products have no negative effect on human health and they are seen as healthier
products, have increased the demand for these products and thus organic agriculture has increased in terms of sectoral basis.
(Kahraman, 2018) Organic agriculture is a healthier and more environmentally sensitive farming method than traditional
agriculture. Therefore, organic agriculture is also closely related with the tourism activities beyond serving healthier production
to people living in a particular geography. Therefore, organic farming will also support Turkey’s tourism. The interest of
tourists in agricultural products of organic origin, the desire to see and buy agricultural activities in place; festivals and markets
organized for this purpose appear as agricultural activities (Kahraman, 2018).
Organic production is a human and environment-oriented production approach that focuses on preserving and improving
ecological diversity by using as little input as possible. Consumer and environment-oriented approaches drive consumers to
consume more organic products and producers to produce more organic products (İnci, Karakaya, Şengül, 2017). When
looking at the conceptual frameworks of organic agriculture in literature, Crucefix handled organic agriculture in different
dimensions such as agricultural, environmental, economy, social and organizational dimensions (Crucefix, 1998).

icshge.org
TABLE I
POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF ORGANIC AGRICULTURE (CRUCEFIX, 1998)
Parameter Potential Benefits
Agriculture Increased diversity, long term soil fertility, high food quality, reduced pest/disease, self-reliant
production system, stable production
Environment Reduced pollution, reduced dependence on non-renewable resources, negligible soil erosion,
wildlife protection, resilient agroecosystem, compatibility of production with environment
Social conditions Improved health, better education, stronger community, reduced rural migration, gender equality,
increased employment, good quality work
Economic conditions Stronger local economy, self-reliant economy, income security, increased returns, reduced cash
investment, low risk, tourism events
Organizational/Institutional Cohesiveness, stability, democratic organizations, enhanced capacity
II. ORGANIC FARMING ACTIVITIES IN TURKEY

With the increase of global demand in 1970s, organic agriculture started to be mentioned in the world in 1974. Also
International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movements (IFOAM) was established in those days in order to gather and
organize organic agriculture activities all over the world. (İnci, Karakaya, Şengül, 2017) As a developing country, Turkey is
basically concentrated to respond to external demand. But rising domestic demand also led developing countries to give more
importance to the organic product market. (Ayla, Altıntaş, 2017) Organic agricultural production in Turkey has started first in
the Aegean region, and has also spread rapidly in other regions. Turkey's geography consists of 7 regions which are Marmara,
Central Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia, Mediterranean, Black Sea, Southeastern Anatolia and Aegean Regions. In Map 1, Organic
farming and product groups of producers who are located in different regions of Turkey are seen. Turkey is one of the rare
countries which can experience four seasons at the same time can be seen in multiple climatic conditions due to the diversity
of their geographical location and landforms. Turkey is a very appropriate country for the organic agriculture production and
distribution-sales activities because of, natural conditions, geographical structure, in terms of logistics location and cultural
richness. In this sense, Turkey is located in the upper row of products that can be produced in many parts of the world scale
and is able to increase the brand value of the country with their sale. The existence of favorable natural conditions that make
agriculture his life in Turkey (climate, topography, soil structure etc.). We see with concern the profitability of producers of
organic farming, although they tend to enable a more intensive method. By promoting manufacturer with scale based organic
farming policy, the future of organic agriculture in Turkey will be even brighter. In Turkey organic agricultural activities are
controlled with the Law 5262 (Principles of Organic Agriculture) and Basics of Organic Farming and Regulations on the
Implementation. Producers have been entitled to produce by being authorized by the Ministry of Agriculture with the necessary
controls and certifications. Figure 1 shows the logo sample that should be used by the producers of organic farming, which is
determined by the Ministry of Agriculture.
Figure 1. The Organic Farming Logo Instance used in Turkey (https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr).
TABLE II
REGIONAL BREAKDOWN OF ORGANIC AGRICULTURE PRODUCERS IN TURKEY (ADAPTED FROM THE 2017 ORGANIC FARMING REPORT,
HTTPS://WWW.TARIMORMAN.GOV.TR/)
Region ranking Region Name Manufacturer % Featured Product Groups Fields of Activity
number
1 Aegean Region 279 %35,8 Olives, Figs, Cotton, Grapes, Production,
Barley, Cherry Marketing,
2 Marmara Region 145 %18,6 Artichoke, Eggplant, Sales,
Cabbage, Tomato, Grape, Export,
Walnut Packaging,
3 Central Anatolia Region 89 %11,4 Clover, Onion, Apple, Storage,
Wheat, Trefoil Processing
4 Eastern Anatolia Region 88 %11,3 Clover, Wheat, Harp, Oats,
Vetch
5 Mediterranean Region 68 %8,7 Citric, Pomegranate,
Pistachio, Apple, Wheat,
Grapes
6 Black Sea Region 65 %8,3 Tea, Hazelnut, Apple,
Cranberry
7 Southeastern Anatolia Region 46 %5,9 Wheat, Grapes, Olive, Corn,
Cotton
Total 780 %100

icshge.org
%8,
%18,6 %11,3
%11,4
%35,8
%5,9
%8,
Map 1. Distribution of Organic Agriculture (According to the Region Turkey)
As seen in the above Table 2 is the most commonly seen of organic agriculture in Turkey's Aegean Region. The
second most intense organic farming region is the Marmara Region. The least of the region is the Southeast Anatolia Region.
The reason for the low level of organic agriculture in the Black Sea Region is the production of industrial agricultural products
(tea, hazelnut etc.), while the product design of the Aegean Region is more suitable and suitable for organic agriculture.
III. RESEARCH
ORGANIC PRODUCTS H1
ÜRÜNLER
PRICE
H2 BUYING BEHAVIOR
QUALITY
H3
ACCESSIBILITY
H4
ENVIRONMENTALIST
APPROACH
Figure 2. Research Model. Source: Developed by researchers
The aim of the study was to measure the effects of organic products on the buying behavior of the parent families. In this
study, the effect of organic products on the buying behavior of the parent families was analysed on the parents who are living
in Istanbul. As a result of the literature studies, the model developed by the researchers is shown in Figure 2. The research
hypotheses are given below:
H1: "Price" variable is statistically significant in explaining Buying Behavior.
H2: "Quality" variable is statistically significant in explaining Buying Behavior.
H3: "Accessibility" variable is statistically significant in explaining Buying Behavior.
H4: "Environmentalist Approach" variable is statistically significant in explaining Buying Behavior.
The sample of the study is consisted of parent families who live in Istanbul and face-to-face questionnaire was applied to
245 parent families. The questionnaire consists of 3 parts. In the first part, questions about the demographic characteristics of
the participants were included. In the second part, 18 questions which were developed by the researchers were asked as 5-point
Likert-type scale. (1= I agreed certainly, 5= I disagreed certainly). In the last part, there are 6 questions in 5-likert-type about
the buying behavior of parent families. SPSS program has been used for frequency, factor, reliability and correlation analyses
and LISREL structural equation modelling has been used in order to test the significance and reliability of our model.
A. Findings of the Research
“Demographic characteristics” gathered through survey results are stated in Table 3. Division of 245 participants of the
survey are as follows; 53,1% female and 46,9% male, all participants were married families, 9,8% between 21-29 age, 50,6%
between 30-39 age, 35,9% between 40-49 age and 3,7% above 50 age, major percentage distribution in education status is
bachelor degree with 33,5%, 29,8% of the participants have 1 child, 71,8% have 2 children, 13,1% have 3 children and 2,4%
have 4 and above children, when the income distribution is examined, 2,0% 1500 TL or less, 36,7% between 1501-3000 TL,
23,7% between 3001-4500 TL, 11,4% between 4501-6000 TL, 19,6% between 6001-7500 TL and 6.5% 7501 TL and above,

icshge.org
when the frequency of shopping is examined, 3,7% of the participants don't make any buying, 73,5% make once a week and
22,9% make a few times a week.
TABLE III
DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS
GENDER Frequency Ratio
Female 130 53,1
Male 115 46,9
Total 245 100
MARITAL STATUS
Married 245 100
Single - -
Total 245 100
AGE
21-29 24 9,8
30-39 124 50,6
40-49 88 35,9
50+ 9 3,7
Total 245 100
EDUCATION STATUS
Elementary School 16 6,5
High School 48 19,6
Associate Degree 63 25,7
Bachelor Degree 82 33,5
Master's Degree/Doctorate 36 14,7
Total 245 100
CHILD STATUS
1 Child 31 29,8
2 Children 176 71,8
3 Children 32 13,1
4 > Children 6 2,4
Total 245 100
INCOME (TL)
1500TL < 5 2,0
1501-3000 TL 90 36,7
3001-4500 TL 58 23,7
4501-6000 TL 28 11,4
6001-7500 TL 48 19,6
7501 TL > 16 6,5
Total 245 100
SHOPPING FREQUENCY
None 9 3,7
Once a week 180 73,5
A few times a week 56 22,9
Total 245 100
For the analysis of the suitability of the scales for factor analysis, the KMO value is 0.890. This result shows that the data
are perfectly suitable for factor analysis. In addition, the Bartlett test p value is also meaningful, so data set is suitable for factor
analysis (Durmuş vd. 2011) (KMO=0,890, χ²Barlett Test (153) = 8557,017, p=0,000). Cronbach Alpha coefficient was used
to test the internal consistency of the scales used in the research. Accordingly, the scales used were found to be reliable and
are shown in Table 4.
TABLE IV
RELIABILITY TEST
Used Scale Number of Questions Cronbach’s Alpha
Organic Products 18 0,899
Buying Behavior 6 0,991
The variables obtained as a result of factor analysis are called "price", "quality", "accessibility", "environmentalist
approach". The reliability analysis was performed for the 4 factors obtained from the factor analyzes and it was observed that
these 4 factors were highly reliable. Factor Loads, Rotation Sums of Squared Loadings (%) of Variance and Cronbach’s Alfa
value are shown in Table 5. Accordingly, when the Cronbach's alpha reliability values are examined, it can be said that the
scales used are reliable because each value is over 0.70.

icshge.org
TABLE V
FACTOR ANALYSIS RESULTS
Factor Rotation Sums of Squared
Factor Questions Cronbach’s Alfa
Load Loadings (%) of Variance
I think organic products are generally expensive. 0,898
I keep buying organic products despite being

0,959
expensive.
Price 25,242 0,973
Organic products deserve their value. 0,956
Regardless of the price organic product shopping
0,937
is important for me.
Satın alacağım organik ürünün fiyatı benim için
0,915
önemlidir.
Food safety and quality are important for me. 0,915
I always trust the quality of organic products. 0,941
We consume organic products with peace of

0,888
Quality mind. 24,704 0,969
I read and search information about the

production method of organic products that I 0,897
intend to buy.
Organic products have high quality. 0,929
I can easily access organic products. 0,967
Access to organic products should be easy 0,965
Organic products should be sold in the
Accessibility 0,971 22,124 0,997
supermarket near my house.
If necessary, I do shopping at distant supermarket
0,969
to buy an organic product.
Organic products are environmentalist. 0,938
The organic product is produced in a way that
0,943
provides the nature balance.
Environmentalist
It is important for me that the company that 21,229 0,987
Approach
produces organic products does not harm the 0,937
environment.
Organic products do not harm the environment. 0,935
TABLE VI
PRICE, QUALITY, ACCESSIBILITY, ENVIRONMENTALIST APPROACH AND BUYING BEHAVIOR
CORRELATION ANALYSIS RESULTS
Mean St. Dev. AVE PRI QUA ACC ENA BUB
PRI 2,0302 1,09510 0,871 1 - - - -
(0,933)
QUA 2,4759 1,01575 0,835 0,383** 1 - - -
(0,914)
ACC 2,2837 1,00058 0,937 0,000 0,000 1 - -
(0,968)
ENA 1,5694 0,79463 0,880 0,65 0,289** 0,455** 1 -
(0,938)
BUB 1,9495 0,90027 0,955 0,241** 0,335** 0,392** 0,394** 1
(0,977)
** Correlation is significant at the 0,01 level (2-tailed)
When the Correlation Analysis results are analyzed in Table 6, AVE values and all factor loads above 0.5 indicate that
convergent validity is provided for variables (Hair vd., 2010). In addition to this, the fact that the square root of the AVE value
of each variable is higher than the correlations of the other variables indicates that discriminant validity is provided too (Fornell
ve Larcker, 1981). After the frequency, factor, reliability and correlation analyses, the research model and hypotheses were
tested with the LISREL structural equation model. The results; chi-square (χ²) 609,52, p=0,00; Degrees of Freedom = 242;
χ²/sd= 2,51; Normed Fit Index -NFI = 0.95; Root Mean Square Error of Approximation-RMSEA = 0.079; Root Mean Square
Residual -RMR = 0.031 and Standardized Root Mean Square Residual-SRMR = 0.027; Comparative Fit Index -CFI = 0.97.
Accordingly, the model of the study, the results obtained and the acceptance criteria (Çokluk vd. 2012:271) are shown in
Figure 3, Table 7 and Table 8.

icshge.org
Figure 3. T-values derived from the second-order confirmatory factor analysis.
TABLE VII
VALUES DERIVED FROM THE STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODEL AND THE ACCEPTABILITY CRITERIA OF THE GOODNESS OF FIT STATISTICS
Goodness of fit Statistics Values Derived from the Model Acceptability Criteria
Chi-Square (χ²)/ sd 2,51 ≤ 3 perfect fit
NFI 0,95 ≥ 0,95 perfect fit
RMSEA 0,079 ≤ 0,08 good fit
RMR 0,031 ≤ 0,05 perfect fit
SRMR 0,027 ≤ 0,05 perfect fit
CFI 0,97 ≥ 0,95 perfect fit
TABLE VIII
STRUCTURAL EQUATION ANALYSIS RESULTS
Dependent Variable Independent Variables Standardized Solutions Values T-Values
Buying Behavior (BUB) Price (PRI) 0,14 2,42
Quality (QUA) 0,22 3,41
Accessibility (ACC) 0,30 4,72
Environmentalist Approach (ENA) 0,19 2,87
As a result of the structural equation modeling, the Goodness of Fit Statistics and the results of the path diagram were
found to be significant at the 0.05 reliability level. The research model was found to be meaningful, reliable and acceptable.
According to the results, it was concluded that the relationship between the Buying Behavior dependent variable and the
independent variables of Quality, Accessibility and Environmentalist Approach was significant at the reliability level of 0.01.
The relationship between Buying Behavior dependent variable and Price independent variable was found to be significant at
0.05 reliability level and it was determined that the model developed was meaningful, reliable and acceptable. When the t-
values are examined, it is seen that the independent variable which most influences the Buying Behavior dependent variable
is Accessibility, followed by Quality and Environmental Approach variables respectively. According to this result, it is seen
that the most important factor affecting the buying of organic products by parent families is the accessibility factor compared
to other factors. Other independent variables used in the study also showed a significant relationship with the Buying Behavior.
IV. CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION

A country with rich natural and human features such as Turkey, taking place with the sustainability approach in the world
organic agriculture market is important not only in terms of export but also in the brand value of the country. As known, the
importance and value of the products bearing the brand value in the world markets is quite high. Production of suitable and
quality organic products by the enterprises in Turkey and with the branding of these products will strengthen enterprises'
position in the international market.
In this study, the effect of organic products on the buying behavior of the parent families was analyzed who are living in
Istanbul. As a result of the literature studies, the model developed by the researchers is consists of 4 independent variables and

icshge.org
one dependent variable influenced by these independent variables. In the research process, a face-to-face questionnaire was
applied to 245 parent families living in Istanbul. The data were analyzed by SPSS and LISREL statistical package programs.
Frequency Analysis, Factor Analysis, Reliability Analysis and Correlation Analysis results obtained by SPSS program were
interpreted. When the results were examined, it was observed that the data were perfectly suitable for factor analysis and it
was observed that the reliability of the four factors was highly reliable. Because of the Cronbach Alpha reliability values are
over 0.70, it can be said that the scales used are reliable. When the Correlation Analysis results are analyzed, AVE values and
all factor loads above 0.5 indicate that convergent validity is provided for variables. In addition to this, the fact that the square
root of the AVE value of each variable is higher than the correlations of the other variables indicates that discriminant validity
is provided too.
In order to test the significance and reliability of the model, structural equation analyzes were performed through the
LISREL program and the goodness of fit statistics, t values and standardized solution values were examined as a result of the
analyzes. As a result of the structural equation modeling, the Goodness of Fit Statistics and the results of the path diagram
were found to be significant at the 0.05 reliability level. The research model was found to be meaningful, reliable and
acceptable. According to the results, it was concluded that the relationship between the Buying Behavior dependent variable
and the independent variables of Quality, Accessibility and Environmentalist Approach was significant at the reliability level
of 0.01. The relationship between Buying Behavior dependent variable and price independent variable was found to be
significant at 0.05 reliability level and it was determined that the model developed was meaningful, reliable and acceptable.
When the t-values are examined, it is seen that the independent variable which most influences the Buying Behavior dependent
variable is Accessibility, followed by Quality and Environmental Approach variables respectively. According to this result, it
is seen that the most important factor affecting the buying of organic products by parent families is the accessibility factor
compared to other factors. Other independent variables used in the study also showed a significant relationship with the buying
behavior. It was concluded that enterprises should pay attention to all the independent variable elements in order to influence
the buying behavior. It is thought that the sample of the research can be extended to different regions and may be a pioneer in
other studies.
REFERENCES
Ayla, Dilara; Altıntaş, D., An Evaluation on Organic Production and Marketing Problems, Kastamonu University Journal of Economics and Administrative
Sciences, 19-4, 2017.
Crucefix, D. Organic Agriculture, An Sustainable Rural Livelihoods in Developing Countries, Soil Association, June, 1998.
Çokluk, Ö. S., Şekercioğlu, G.; Büyüköztürk, Multivariate Statistics for Social Sciences: Spss and Lisrel Applications. Ankara: Pegem Akademia Publishing,
2012.
Durmuş, B., Yurtkoru, E.S; Çinko, M., Data Analysis with SPSS in Social Sciences, 5. Issue, Beta Issue, Istanbul, 2013.
Fornell C; Larcker, D.F Evaluating Structural Equation Models with Unobservable Variables and Measurement Error, Journal of Marketing Research, Vol.
XVIII, 39-50, 1981.
Hair, J. F., W.C., Black, B.J., Babin, ve R.E. Anderson, Multivariate Data Analysis: A Global Perspective, Pearson, New York, NY, 2010.
İnci, H.; Karakaya, E.; Şengül, Y., Factors Affecting Organic Product Consumption (Diyarbakır Province Case), KSÜ Journal, 20(2), 137-147, 2017.
Giddings, B.; Hopwood, B.; O’Brien, G. Environment, Economy and Society: Fitting Them Together into Sustainable Development. Sustain. Dev. 2002, 10,
187–196.
Kahraman, C., Kuşadası Bay Coastal Areas Use and Problems, Artikel Yayıncılık, 2018.
Pektaş, G.Ö.E.; Kahraman, C.; Alkan, G., Evaluation of Geographical Indications and Export Marketing in Turkey, Eastern Geographical Review; June,
Number. 39, 2018.
Rehber, E. A Discussion on Alternative Agriculture, Uludağ University, Zir. Fac. Journal, No:8, Bursa, 1991.
Turhan, Ş. Sustainability in Agriculture and Organic Agriculture, Journal of Agriculture Economy, 11(1): 13-24, 2005.

icshge.org
Honey Guacamole
Lara-Pulido, J.A.,1 Guevara-Sanginés, A.,2 Torres-Rojo, J.M.,3 Núñez-Hernández, J.M.,4 Riojas, J.,5 Pérez-Cirera,
V.,6 Breceda, K.,7 Blas, D.E.-DE,8 and Barragán. M.J.9
1
Faculty member, Transdisciplinary Center for Sustainability (Centrus), Universidad Iberoamericana, Mexico
2
Faculty member, Department of Economics, Universidad Iberoamericana, Mexico
3
Faculty member, Economics Division, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE), Mexico
4
5
6
World Wildlife Fund (WWF)
7
El Buen Socio
8
Agricultural Research for Development (CIRAD)
9
Research Assistant, Universidad Iberoamericana
Abstract—Insect pollination is essential for food production worldwide, however increasing evidence of declines in the
abundance and richness of insect pollination continues to accumulate. Recognizing the economic value of crop pollination by
insects allows a better understanding of the potential consequences of continuing to put under pressure insect pollinators
through alterations and loss of their natural habitat. In this study, the effects of natural habitat coverage in adjacent avocado
crops of the state of Michoacán, Mexico on avocado productivity attributable to pollination was evaluated. This, in order to
generate an input for a cost-benefit analysis of the conservation of natural habitats in agricultural landscapes. Using Geographic
Information Systems (GIS) and indices of pollinator abundance across the landscape generated with the InVEST software, an
econometric regression model was implemented to measure the contribution of the bee pollinator community to avocado crop
yield. The results show that, in an area where the abundance of domesticated and wild pollinators is around the mean, the
volume harvested of avocado is 19% greater. Moreover, results show that this effect is only present when both wild and
domesticated pollinators are available. When only domesticated pollinators are present, there is not a significant effect on
harvested volume. These results have important policy implications since the production of avocado apparently competes with
ecosystem preservation and we found that they exist better ways to produce more avocado without affecting ecosystems, an
optimal mix of production and conservation is possible.
Keywords—pollination, avocado production, ecosystem services, agricultural yield
I. INTRODUCTION
P OLLINATION is defined as the transfer of pollen grains from the flower anthers to its stigma or to the stigma of another
flower (reproductive organs). For it to be effective, the stigma must be receptive so that pollen can germinate. During the
process of pollination, a pollen tube will form, which then will deliver the sperm into the egg. This fusion of gametes allows
fertilization to take place, and the final product is the formation of an embryo (young seedling) inside de egg. This embryo
develops into a seed, to finally become a fruit (Lovatt 1997).
The result is the reproduction of many field crops (fruits, vegetables, seeds, etc.) and wild plants, which most of them are
the main source of micronutrients, calories, vitamins and minerals of the human diet (IPBES, 2016). Furthermore, pollination
is of great importance in maintaining the diversity of plant species, as it facilitates their propagation and survival. Consequently,
the decline of pollinating species can lead to a decline of plant species (Biesmeijer et al 2006).
Therefore, pollination is one of the most important ecosystem services that biodiversity offers to humankind. It is
estimated that worldwide, nearly 300,000 plants depend on pollinators for fertilization (Kearns, Inouye & Waser 1998;
Ollerton, Winfree & Tarrant 2011), including about 1,500 crops of great economic importance (Klein et al. 2007), which may
represent 3-8% of global agricultural production (Aizen et al., 2009). Also, more than three-quarters of the main crops used as
foods supply depend on the quantity and richness of pollinators (IPBES, 2016).
For pollination to occur, there are agents responsible of transporting pollen from one flower to another, which may be
abiotic (e.g. wind or water) or biotic (animals). This is how diverse groups of animals can act as pollinators, moved by the
need to find resources for their survival (Bonilla, 2012). For example, in temperate regions, honeybees (Apis mellifera),
bumblebees (Bombus spp.), solitary bees, wasps and hoverflies carry out most animal pollination, while in the tropics,
butterflies, moths, birds and bats become important (Klein et al, 2007).
Even though a wide range of animals can be important pollinators, insects have proven to be the best adapted organisms
to carry out this task, thanks to its small size, its large number, and its ability to fly, which allows them to travel long distances
to achieve their function (Bastida y Patrick, 2006).
The comparative advantage of insects as pollinators has promoted the creation of a market that uses domesticated insects
to improve agricultural production. This practice suggests that there are not enough wild pollinators to ensure adequate
pollination of all the currently demanded crops (Rader et al., 2013). In fact, the number of managed hives are increasing despite
the decrease of the abundance in natural conditions (IPBES, 2016). Notwithstanding the importance of domesticated insect
species, particularly of the honey bee, evidence continues to prove that wild pollinators are more efficient and effective
pollinators than managed bees (Garibaldi et al., 2013).
The ecosystem service provided by pollination largely depends on the condition and extent of the stock of pollinators.
Nevertheless, global and local studies show significant evidence of increasing declines in the abundance and diversity of both

icshge.org
managed and wild insect pollinators (Biesmeijer et al., 2006; van Engelsdorp et al.,2008; Potts et al., 2010a,b; Cameron et al.,
2011).
Human activity has taken place under the unconscious and misleading assumption that pollination is an abundant and
unlimited ecosystem service. In consequence, pollinators have been put under great pressure throughout intensification of
agricultural practices. Vanbergen et al. (2013) list as one of the main pressures on the supply of pollination services the
landscape change in agriculture landscapes, as loss of natural habitats have been shown to have a negative impact on both the
abundance and species richness of wild bees in agroecosystems (Montero‐Castaño & Vila, 2012).
Land use change, deforestation, synthetic fertilizers use, pesticides exposure, among other alterations of the pollinators’
environment, result in the loss of nesting habitat and the lack of food resources for pollinators (Cane 2001; Winfree, Bartomeus
& Cariveau 2011). These reduces pollination efficiency and consequently crops’ yield is negatively affected (Aguilar et al.
2006, Morales & Traveset, 2009).
Conservation of natural habitats in agricultural landscapes to increase and protect bee's resources and improve pollination
services has become a common practice to enhance crops’ productivity. Studies in California and Canada show that the
presence of 30% natural habitat coverage in adjacent crop areas is enough to provide complete pollination (Kremen et. al.,
2004; Morandin and Winston, 2006). Kennedy et al., (2013) found that the most important factor in encouraging wild
pollinators in agroecosystems is the quantity and distribution of good quality habitat around orchards or cultivation areas, in
combination with organic crop management practices (few pesticides). Therefore, landscape management is key to reverse
pollinators’ decline.
The management of these areas depends on many factors, such as existing pollinator species, available plant species and
crop pollination needs. These elements are regularly contrasted with crop characteristics and productivity to estimate the
economic value of the pollination service.
Recognizing the economic value of crop pollination by insects is essential to sustainable food production and farm
management. Valuation enables to analyze the relationship between pollinator abundance and crops’ yield, allowing a better
understanding of the potential consequences of continued insect pollinator decline for food production and food security
(Abson and Termansen, 2011). Moreover, the values of pollination can be included as part of a cost-benefit analysis to inform
about the decision to maintain or not pollinator-supplying areas.
The economic value of pollination has both market and non-market components. Market-valued benefits from pollinators
consist in increasing crop productivity. Gallai et al. (2009) made an effort to estimate the insect pollination total economic
value (IPEV) of the 100 most important crops worldwide. The estimate yielded a value of 153 million euros per year, a figure
equivalent to 9.5% of the value of agricultural activity in the globe. Although the methodology shows some problems, the
effort puts into perspective the enormous value of this ecosystem service.
These authors defined the reason between the IPEV and the total economic value of the crops as a measure of the economic
vulnerability of each crop to the loss of pollinators. The results of their study show that the vulnerability is higher for fruit trees
(23%), nuts (31%) and vegetables (12%), than for cereals, roots and tubers, whose pollinator requirements are minimal. The
most relevant result in terms of food security is that the crops that provide the most protein, vitamins and minerals in the human
diet are those that show the greatest vulnerability, and consequently are the ones that require the greatest number of pollination
services. The result becomes even more relevant when considering the most marginalized population living in rural areas,
because these people are the ones who mostly depend on these crops to satisfy their demands of proteins, vitamins and minerals.
More recent estimates suggest that crop pollination reaches the value of 361 million dollars worldwide (Lautenbach et al.,
2012), however, the accuracy, reliability and usefulness of the figures remain questioned (Hanley et al., 2015).
On the other hand, non-market benefits are related to the conservation, aesthetic and cultural values of plants that require
pollination for fertilization. (Lautenbach et al., 2012; Hanley et al., 2015).
This paper takes on account the recommendations of Hanley et al., (2015) to evaluate the effect of natural habitat coverage
in adjacent avocado crops of the state of Michoacán, Mexico on avocado productivity attributable to pollination. This analyzes
is relevant in two aspects; first, the avocado (Persea Americana Mill) is one of the most important crops of Mexican food and
agricultural export, hence of great economic importance to the country. Mexico harvested 1, 889, 254 million tonnes of
avocado in 2016, making the country the leading producer worldwide (FAOSTAT, 2016). Consequently, Mexico is the main
supplier of avocado in the international market, with a contribution of 45.95% of the total value of world exports. Mexican
exports represent a significant percentage of avocado imports in countries such as Guatemala, 100%; Canada, 95.41%; Japan,
92.72%; United States, 91.32% and El Salvador, 90.23%. Moreover, in 2016, avocado represented 4.39% of the national
agricultural GDP (SAGARPA, 2017). Second, this study will allow to know the economic value of natural habitat coverage in
adjacent crop areas, since they offer a great amount of ecosystem services that are often not recognized. These areas are
commonly considered no to provide tangible benefits, and deforestation is chosen for short-term economic benefits, but this
choice is unsustainable over time. Proving that conservation of natural habitat is cost effective will help optimize conservation
investments that benefit both biodiversity and farmers. Also, decision-makers could use this information to predict
consequences of different policies on pollination services and income to farmers.

icshge.org

Study area
In 2016, avocado was grown in 72 countries, among which Mexico was the leading producer, with 1, 889,354 million
tonnes of volume produced. (FAOSTAT, 2016) This fruit was harvested in 28 states of the country, but the state of Michoacán
was the entity that contributed the most to the national avocado production; 78.19% of the total avocados were obtained in
Michoacán (SIAP, 2017).
The avocado plantations in the state of Michoacán are distributed in the physiographic province of the Transversal
Volcanic System among the coordinates 18º45 'and 20º06'N and between 101º47' and 103º13'W. This region is known as the
"avocado-producing belt area in Michoacán", which occupies 7,752 square kilometers and represents 13.5% of the state
surface. It is established at heights between 1100 and 2900masl, on seven soil types, 10 different climates, mean temperature
of 16-24°C, annual rainfall between 800 and 1500mm, and a predominant relative humidity of 90% (Gutierrez-Contreras,
2010).
In Michoacán avocado is of great socioeconomic importance, because of the benefit it generates among the participants
of the productive chain, such as producers, traders, industrialists and consumers (Téliz and Marroquín, 2007). For every 10ha
of avocado cultivation occupation is given to 1.5 men (Sánchez et al., 2001).
Legend
Harvested volume
volcos
0.00 - 304.26
305.80 - 950.53
962.12 - 2083.30
2177.70 - 4313.30
4582.80 - 8533.40
Figure 1. Avocado production in Michoacán, Mexico.

Source: Own elaboration
III. POLLINATOR SUPPLY AND ABUNDANCE

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to obtain plant cover information in the study area and a list of
pollinators and their characteristics (species, average flight distance, place of nesting, etc.). Specifically, for vegetation and
land use, we used information from Chen et al., (2015). Then, with this information, the software InVEST was used to generate
an abundance index of pollinators. Pollinators and vegetation parameters were obtained from Michener, (2013); Pimentel et
al., (2014) and Roubik, (2006).
The InVEST pollination model focuses on the resource needs and flight behaviors of wild bees, as wild bees are
considered a key animal pollinator for most crops. The model assumes that for bees to survive on a landscape and therefore to
efficiently pollinate nearby crops, they need two basic resources, suitable nest sites and food supply (floral resources).
The model first estimates a pollinator supply index, an indicator of where pollinators originate from on the landscape,
using information about the availability of nests sites and floral resources within bee flight ranges. Floral resources in cells
near nesting sites are given more weight than distant cells, according to the species’ average foraging range.
Then, the InVEST model calculates a pollinator abundance index, an indicator of where pollinators are active on the
landscape. Pollinator abundance is based on the pollinator supply index and on floral resources, foraging activity and flight
range information.
“The pollinator abundance for species s index on cell x, during season j PA(x,s,j), is the product of available floral

icshge.org
resources on a cell during a given season, weighted by a pollinator’s relative activity during that season with the pollinator
supply and normalized by the floral resources index in surrounding cells such that:” (Sharp, et.al., 2018)
Equation 1. Pollinator abundance index
(1)
Where:
 l(x) is the land cover type at pixel x,
 j is the season,
 RA(l,j) index of relative abundance of floral resources on land cover l during season j,
 FR(x,s) is the accessible floral resources index at pixel x for species s,
 PS(x,s) is the pollinator supply index at pixel x for species s,
 fa(s,j) is the relative foraging activity for pollinator species s during season j.
 D(x,x′) is the Euclidean distance between cells x and x′,
 and αs is the expected foraging distance for the pollinator s
Legend
Domesticated
Value
High
Low
Figure 2. Domesticated bee abundance in Michoacán, Mexico.

Legend
Wild
Value
High
Low
Figure 3. Wild bee abundance in Michoacán, Mexico.


icshge.org
IV. MODEL
The Agricultural, Livestock and Forestry Census 2007 carried out by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography
(INEGI) provides structural information about the Mexican agricultural and forestry sector, and basic information on the
identification, location and economic and technological characteristics of the production units. Through the data provide by
this census, information on avocado crop yield at farm level and characteristics of the crop system in the study area was
gathered.
Using this information and the indices of pollinator abundance across the landscape, an econometric regression model
was implemented to measure the contribution of the bee pollinator community to agricultural production. This model is
presented in equation (2).
ln(ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡) = 𝛼0 + 𝛼1 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥 + 𝑋Β + 𝜖 (2)
Where harvest represents the avocado harvested volume by farm, index is a pollinator abundance index and X is a vector
of characteristics of the farms, namely, common property area, private property area, cultivated area, chemical fertilized area,
organic cultivated area, area with herbicides applied, area with chemical insecticides applied, fruit packing facility (dummy),
and biological pest control (dummy).
TABLE I
REGRESSION RESULTS
Variable Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4
(Wild + domesticated) (Wild * domesticated) (Wild) (Domesticated)
Altitude -0.0002** -0.0002** -0.0002* -0.0002
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Temperature 0.0098 0.0069 0.0101 0.0221
(0.017) (0.017) (0.017) (0.017)
Precipitation 0.0002* 0.0002* 0.0003** 0.0003**
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Total area -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001
(0.000) (.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Common property area -0.0016 -0.0030 -0.0044 -0.0041
(0.017) (0.017) (0.017) (0.017)
Private property area -0.0052*** -0.0536*** -0.0546*** -0.0519***
(0.014) (0.014) (0.014) (0.014)
Planted property area 1.5058 1.509*** 1.5180*** 1.5240***
(0.022) (0.022) (0.021) (0.021)
Chemical fertilized area -0.0611*** -0.0601*** -0.0631*** -0.0724***
(0.023) (0.023) (0.023) (0.023)
Organic property area -0.0864*** -0.0858*** -0.0863*** -0.0887***
(0.021) (0.021) (0.021) (0.021)
Area with chemical 0.0054 -0.0029 -0.0024 -0.0054
herbicides applied (0.023) (0.023) (0.023) (0. 023)
Area with chemical -0.0259 -0.0288 -0.0294 -0. 0241
insecticides applied (0.021) (0.023) (0.021) (0. 021)
Fruit packing facility 0.0909 0.0913 0.0792 0. 0833
(0.119) (0.119) (0.119) (0. 119)
Biological pest control -0.0164 -0.0185 -0.0219 -0.0270
(0.050) (0.050) (0.050) (0.050)
Wild pollinators index 0.3898*** 0.1500* -
(0.119) (0.091)
Domesticated pollinators 0.5475*** - 0.1700
index (0.178) (0.135)
Wild x domesticated index - -0.4897*** - -
(0.191)
Constant 0.4084 0.8564 0.7923 0.4381
(0.511) (0.496) (0.497) (0.512)
R2 0.7921 0.7916 0.7913 0.7912
Adjusted R2 0.7909 0.7905 0.7902 0.7901
Number of observations 2,518 2,518 2,518 2,518
Prob > F 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Source: Own elaboration.
Information for two types of pollinators were gathered, wild pollinators (which include the families Hylaeinae,
Xeromelissinae, Colletini, Paracolletini, Dissoglotini, Caupolicanini, Halictidae, Adrenidae, Megachilidae, Anthoporidae,
Vespidae, Syrphidae, and Calliphoridae) and domesticated pollinators (Apidae). For these pollinators four variation of the base
model were specified. The first include both wild and domesticated pollinators in a linear specification; the second include the
two types of pollinators but also the interaction of both; the third include only wild pollinators; and the fourth include only the
domesticated pollinators. These specifications had the objective to test the relation between the two types of pollinators, and
to identify separately the effect of each type on harvested volume. The indices were standardized between 0 and 1, in order to
interpret them in a sensible way. Results are presented in Table 1.

icshge.org
The results show that as the planted area is greater, the harvested volume is greater; when chemical fertilized area increases
the volume harvested decreases, which is an indicative of old plantations, where diminishing returns are present; in areas where
organic production is greater, volume harvested decreases. An interesting result appear regarding common and private
property, we find that in private property areas volume harvested decreases. One could expect the contrary, however, an
argument of better community management in large common areas could be argued. Also, altitude has a negative effect on the
harvested volume. On the other hand, precipitation has a positive effect. We do not find an effect of the presence of a fruit
packaging facility (a proxy of crossed elasticity of avocado with other fruits), the temperature, and the application of chemical
insecticides and chemical herbicides or biological control of pests.
Regarding our variables of interest, we find a significant and expected sign effect of the pollinator’s variables. We find
that, indeed, there is an effect of pollinators on harvested volume, which is larger for domesticated species than that for wild
species. However, if only domesticated species are present the effect is lost. That is to say, there is synergy between wild and
domesticated pollinators. In particular, we find that when both types are present in the territory (Model 1), in areas with the
maximum presence of domesticated pollinators, harvested volume increases by 49 percent. This magnitude could seem
relatively high, however, one has to take into account the distribution of this variable. In particular, the mean of this variable
is 0.38, which means in an area where the abundance of domesticated pollinators is around the mean, the volume harvested of
avocado is 19% greater. Moreover, results show that this effect is only present when both wild and domesticated pollinators
are available, when only domesticated pollinators are present, there is not a significant effect on harvested volume. Also, when
only wild pollinators are in the territory, there is an effect on harvested volume, yet is smaller than when both pollinators are
present (10% at the mean, compared to 19%). These results show that wild and domesticated pollinators feedback each other,
which has important policy implications.
V. DISCUSSION
The major contribution of this study is to confirm the economic effect of pollinators to harvested volume of avocado in
Mexico. There is a considerable amount of evidence regarding the effect of pollinators in crop production; however, as far as
we know this is the first study of this kind in Mexico. Moreover, we find evidence of a synergy of wild and domesticated
pollinators, which has important policy implications. In particular, we find evidence that domesticated species are not sufficient
to increase production, the presence of wild pollinators is necessary in order to increase production. In this sense, the abundance
of wild pollinators is a result of the health of adjacent natural ecosystems to farms; therefore, it seems that markets of
domesticated pollinators are effective only when a policy of ecosystem conservation is promoted.
The main limitations of this study is the absence of field validation of results. During the study we visited a mango
plantation in Chiapas, Mexico, where producers received some bee hives; however, we were not able to gather rigorous
statistical data to test if the presence of domesticated pollinators increase production. We found that mango producers were
receptive to test if pollinators were an important input to their production, yet the data we gathered did not surpass the anecdotic
evidence. In this sense, this study opens new research topics: Does this result is confirmed for other crops? Does the economic
contribution of pollinators outweighs the opportunity cost of land not dedicated to crop production? Which is the optimal mix
of crop production and natural ecosystems conservation?
VI. CONCLUSION
Avocado production is a very polemic topic in Mexico. It is a very important agricultural product of Mexico, yet
apparently it competes with ecosystem preservation. We found that a mix of conservation and production could be optimal.
Given the fact that natural ecosystem deforestation and degradation pressures are pervasive in order to produce this crop, we
can find better ways to produce more avocado without affecting ecosystems, an optimal mix of production and conservation
may be possible.
REFERENCES
Abson, D. J., & Termansen, M. (2011). Valuing ecosystem services in terms of ecological risks and returns. Conservation Biology, 25(2), 250-258.
Aguilar, R., Ashworth, L., Galetto, L., & Aizen, M. A. (2006). Plant reproductive susceptibility to habitat fragmentation: review and synthesis through a
meta‐analysis. Ecology letters, 9(8), 968-980.
Aizen, M. A., Garibaldi, L. A., Cunningham, S. A., & Klein, A. M. (2009). How much does agriculture depend on pollinators? Lessons from long-term
trends in crop production. Annals of botany, 103(9), 1579-1588.
Atlas Agroalimentario, S. I. A. P. (2017). Primera Edición. Servicio de Información Agroalimentaria y Pesquera. Ciudad de México,
https://www.gob.mx/siap/prensa/atlas-agroalimentario-2017
Bastida, M. M. C. Y E. G. Patrick. (2006). El convenio sobre diversidad biológica y el artículo 8 (j): Pueblos originarios de México, Biodiversidad y
derechos de propiedad intelectual colectivos. Universidad Intercultural del Estado de México. México, p. 111.
Biesmeijer, J. C., Roberts, S. P., Reemer, M., Ohlemüller, R., Edwards, M., Peeters, T., ... & Settele, J. (2006). Parallel declines in pollinators and insect-
pollinated plants in Britain and the Netherlands. Science, 313(5785), 351-354.
Bonilla, M.A. (2012). La polinización como servicio ecosistémico. En: Iniciativa colombiana de polinizadores (ICPA), Capítulo I: abejas. Universidad
Nacional de Colombia, Instituto Humboldt. Bogotá, Colombia. pp. 1-103.
Cameron, S. A., Lozier, J. D., Strange, J. P., Koch, J. B., Cordes, N., Solter, L. F., & Griswold, T. L. (2011). Patterns of widespread decline in North
American bumble bees. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(2), 662-667.
Cane, J. H. (2001). Habitat fragmentation and native bees: a premature verdict? Conservation Ecology, 5(1).
Chen, J., Chen, J., Liao, A., Cao, X., Chen, L., Chen, X., ... & Zhang, W. (2015). Global land cover mapping at 30m resolution: A POK-based operational
approach. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 103, 7-27. Cover available
at: http://www.globallandcover.com/GLC30Download/index.aspx

icshge.org
Chen, J., Chen, J., Liao, A., Cao, X., Chen, L., Chen, X., ... & Zhang, W. (2015). Global land cover mapping at 30m resolution: A POK-based operational
approach. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 103, 7-27. Cover available
at: http://www.globallandcover.com/GLC30Download/index.aspx
Gallai, N., Salles, J. M., Settele, J., & Vaissière, B. E. (2009). Economic valuation of the vulnerability of world agriculture confronted with pollinator
decline. Ecological economics, 68(3), 810-821.
Garibaldi, L. A., Steffan-Dewenter, I., Winfree, R., Aizen, M. A., Bommarco, R., Cunningham, S. A., ... & Bartomeus, I. (2013). Wild pollinators enhance
fruit set of crops regardless of honey bee abundance. Science, 339(6127), 1608-1611.
Hanley, N., Breeze, T. D., Ellis, C., & Goulson, D. (2015). Measuring the economic value of pollination services: Principles, evidence and knowledge gaps.
Ecosystem services, 14, 124-132.
IPBES. (2016). The assessment report on Pollinators, Pollination and Food Production, summary for policymakers. Bonn, Germany.
Kearns, C. A., Inouye, D. W., & Waser, N. M. (1998). Endangered mutualisms: the conservation of plant-pollinator interactions. Annual review of ecology
and systematics, 29(1), 83-112
Kennedy, C. M., Lonsdorf, E., Neel, M. C., Williams, N. M., Ricketts, T. H., Winfree, R., ... & Carvalheiro, L. G. (2013). A global quantitative synthesis of
local and landscape effects on wild bee pollinators in agroecosystems. Ecology letters, 16(5), 584-599.
Klein, A. M., Vaissiere, B. E., Cane, J. H., Steffan-Dewenter, I., Cunningham, S. A., Kremen, C., & Tscharntke, T. (2007). Importance of pollinators in
changing landscapes for world crops. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences, 274(1608), 303-313.
Kremen, C., Williams, N. M., Bugg, R. L., Fay, J. P., & Thorp, R. W. (2004). The area requirements of an ecosystem service: crop pollination by native bee
communities in California. Ecology letters, 7(11), 1109-1119.
Labandeira, C. C. (1998). How old is the flower and the fly? Science, 280(5360), 57-59.
Lautenbach, S., Seppelt, R., Liebscher, J., & Dormann, C. F. (2012). Spatial and temporal trends of global pollination benefit. PLoS one, 7(4), e35954.
Lovatt, C. J. (1997). Pollination biology and fruit set in avocado. In Proc, Austral. Grower’s Avocado Fed. & NZ Avocado Growers Assoc.
Conference (Vol. 97, No. 1, pp. 98-105).
Michener, C. D. 2013. The Meliponini. Part I. Origin, Biodiversity and Behavior of the Stingless Bees (Meliponini). Páginas 3-18, en P. Vit, S. R. M. Pedro,
y D. W. Roubik editores. Pot-Honey, A legacy of Stingless bees. Springer, New Cork.
Montero‐Castaño, A., & Vila, M. (2012). Impact of landscape alteration and invasions on pollinators: a meta‐analysis. Journal of Ecology, 100(4), 884-893.
Morales, C. L., & Traveset, A. (2009). A meta‐analysis of impacts of alien vs. native plants on pollinator visitation and reproductive success of co‐flowering
native plants. Ecology letters, 12(7), 716-728.
Morandin, L. A., & Winston, M. L. (2006). Pollinators provide economic incentive to preserve natural land in agroecosystems. Agriculture, Ecosystems &
Environment, 116(3-4), 289-292.
Ollerton, J., Winfree, R., & Tarrant, S. (2011). How many flowering plants are pollinated by animals? Oikos, 120(3), 321-326.
Pimentel R. K., Hernández M.F.R., Torres P.I., Toledo P. L. E., Hernández G. H. (2014). Relación de la población natural de abejas de la tierra (Melipona
beecheii) con la flora en el valle San Andrés. Revista Cubana de Ciencias Forestales Vol. 2 (1), 1-18.
Potts, S. G., Biesmeijer, J. C., Kremen, C., Neumann, P., Schweiger, O., & Kunin, W. E. (2010). Global pollinator declines: trends, impacts and drivers.
Trends in ecology & evolution, 25(6), 345-353.
Rader, R., Edwards, W., Westcott, D. A., Cunningham, S. A., & Howlett, B. G. (2013). Diurnal effectiveness of pollination by bees and flies in agricultural
Brassica rapa: Implications for ecosystem resilience. Basic and Applied Ecology, 14(1), 20-27.
Roubik, D. W. 2006. Stingless bee nesting biology. Apidologie 37: 124-143
Sharp, R., Tallis, H.T., Ricketts, T., Guerry, A.D., Wood, S.A., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Nelson, E., Ennaanay, D., …& Douglass, J. (2018). InVEST 3.5.0+dev
User’s Guide. The Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, University of Minnesota, The Nature Conservancy, and World Wildlife Fund
Vanbergen, A. J., & Insect Pollinators Initiative. (2013). Threats to an ecosystem service: pressures on pollinators. Frontiers in Ecology and the
Environment, 11(5), 251-259.
vanEngelsdorp, D., Hayes Jr, J., Underwood, R. M., & Pettis, J. (2008). A survey of honey bee colony losses in the US, fall 2007 to spring 2008. PloS
one, 3(12), e4071.
Winfree, R., Bartomeus, I., & Cariveau, D. P. (2011). Native pollinators in anthropogenic habitats. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and
Systematics, 42, 1-22.

icshge.org
Identifying Spatial Measures to Improve Urban Thermal Comfort

Park, B., Oh, K.,* and Suh, J.
Department of Urban Planning and Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea; * ksoh@hanyang.ac.kr
Abstract—Recently, cities have been experiencing serious problems such as summer tropical nights, urban heat islands, and
summer heat waves. Although these changes are being viewed by some as characteristics of urban life for residents, others
view them as serious issues that require immediate solutions in order to maintain sustainability for future generations. This
study suggests measures to improve the urban thermal comfort of citizens in consideration to periods of urban activity, namely
during the entire day (0-24h), during the daytime (06-20h), and during the nighttime (20-06h) in the summer. Urban thermal
comfort was estimated using PET (Physiological Equivalent Temperature) analysis at the pedestrian level and multiple
regression analysis was conducted focusing on the variables derived from correlation analysis between the results of PET
analysis and urban spatial indicators. As a result, this study found that PET in commercial and business areas that had a high
rate of citizen activity during the daytime could be lowered by the reduction of the albedo, surface roughness, building coverage
ratio, sky view factor (SVF), and an increase in the height to width ratio (H/W ratio) and green area ratio. Moreover, PET in
residential areas that have a high rate of citizen activity during the nighttime could be lowered due to a reduction of the building
coverage ratio, albedo, building length, SVF, and increase in the H/W ratio. Therefore, this study revealed that urban thermal
comfort can be improved by reducing the amount of solar radiation, wind speed resistance, securing of wind paths, and the
creation of air circulation space. These urban thermal comfort improvement measures can be utilized to solve serious urban
problems resulting from urban thermal stress by establishing medium and long term planning strategies of urban spaces.
Keywords—urban thermal comfort, physiological equivalent temperature, urban spatial indicators
I. INTRODUCTION
R ECENTLY, cities have been experiencing serious problems including summer tropical nights due to climate change and
excessive concentration of development leading to temperature increases, urban heat islands, and extremely hot summer
heat. Generally, urban areas with high population densities deteriorate due to anthropogenic causes such as the urban heat
island phenomena, which can result in 2 °C to 4 °C above the surrounding area (Tskebavash and Moriyama 2009). Konopacki
(2002) and Rosenzweig (2007) reported that the temperature difference between the city and the outskirts was about 2.5 - 4.5
°C in the United States. As a detrimental example of this phenomenon, approximately 700 elderly people perished in the city
of Chicago in 1995 due to rising urban temperatures (Konopacki and Akbari, 2002; Rosenzweig et al., 2007). The Republic of
Korea is no exception, with the Meteorological Agency predicting that at the end of the 21st century, the temperature of the
Korean Peninsula may rise by about 5.7 °C. Moreover, since 2000, the number of directly and indirectly related deaths from
thermal and heat stress in Korea has been rapidly increasing (Lee et al., 2014). These results indicate that the rise in summer
temperatures increases the heat stress of citizens and exacerbates thermal discomfort. For some, this is accepted as an aspect
of urban life for residents, while for others, it is a social problem that requires immediate resolution in order to maintain
sustainability for future generations. Therefore, this study suggests measures of thermal comfort improvement in urban
planning using the relationship between the results of PET and urban thermal comfort influencing factors. The results of this
study can be used as basic data for spatial decision-making alternatives to improve urban thermal comfort for citizens.

A. Quality of life and thermal comfort
Quality of life can be said to be "a basic condition for enjoying human life" that involves maintaining urban life without
undermining human dignity or values (Lane, 1994). Basic concepts of quality of life are mostly similar but detailed factors are
defined differently by country and region (Lim, 1996). The World Health Organization (WHO) has proposed stability, health,
convenience, and comfort as a condition for satisfying basic human life needs (Hong, 2007). This study agrees with the
meaning of comfort among the four conditions proposed by WHO.
In general, human comfort is enhanced when mental and sensory aspects are satisfied by a certain environmental
condition. Also, thermal comfort refers to the balance between calories and calories produced by minimal physiological effort.
Studies on thermal comfort have been conducted in relation to thermal comfort indicators utilizing a combination of climatic
factors such as air temperature, humidity, and wind speed in the mid-1900s. Since 2000, many studies on thermal comfort have
been done on the topic of thermal comfort zones. Initial thermal comfort studies have been attributed to the production of
indoor biological climate maps (Olgay, 1963). The biological climate map has been used as an indicator of environmental
plans by suggesting thermal comfort zones using temperature, humidity, wind speed, and sunshine (Watson and Labs, 1983,
Watson, 2007). Subsequently, other research has been done on thermal comfort to develop the thermal comfort indexes of
outdoor space. Among them, Bosselmann calculated the thermal comfort of the urban space, and the study on the thermal
comfort of the outdoor space was conducted (Bosselmann and Arens, 1991). After that, various thermal comfort indexes have
been made such as Standard Effective Temperature (SET) (Gagge, 1974). However, the thermal comfort indexes such as SET
for the microscopic spatial scale showed limitations in analyzing the thermal comfort of the urban scale. These studies showed
the limitations of analyzing thermal comfort and alternative measures on the urban scale.
Improvement of urban thermal comfort deterioration should consider micro and macro scale spatial characteristics. Thus,

icshge.org
this study analyzed thermal comfort in outdoor urban spaces and presents improvement measures in urban planning.
B. PET (Physiological Equivalent Temperature)
In the literature review, the indicators of outdoor thermal comfort were mainly predicted by Predict Mean Vote (PMV)
(Franger, 1972), Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) (Höppe, 1999), Outdoor Standard Effective Temperature
(OUT-SET) (Blazejczyk et al., 2012), and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) (Bröde et al., 2012). PET is a thermal
comfort index based on the equilibrium state of body temperature and the outdoor environment. PET can be analyzed using
PMV which is an index of thermal comfort presented in International Standards Organization 7730 (ISO 7730) (Olesen and
Parsons, 2002). The PMV is estimated using climatic factors such as air temperature, mean radiant temperature, relative
humidity, wind speed, etc., and body thermal equilibrium factors including age, sex, activity, clothing, etc. (KAT, 2016). The
results of the PMV calculations are classified into 8 steps from -3.5 to +3.5, and the comfort zone range is -0.5 - +0.5 (Table
1). The above PMV results were changed to PET by utilizing the regression model. As a result of previous studies, the results
of PMV and PET were changed with the mean radiant temperature, shadow, wind speed, etc. due to urban spatial indicators
such as street trees, building aspect, building outline, etc. This can be explained in connection with thermal recognition and
the physiological stress index. PET has the advantage of being able to show more comprehensive results to urban and regional
planners with the use of commonly used air temperature units (°C). Since PET is the most widely used thermal comfort index,
this study analyzed the urban thermal comfort using PET.
TABLE I
THERMAL COMFORT RANGES OF PMV AND PET (MATZARAKIS ET AL., 2007)
PMV PET(°C) Thermal perception Grade of physiological stress
Very Hot Extreme Hot Stress
3.5 <41
Hot Strong Hot Stress
2.5 35
Warm Moderate Warm Stress
1.5 29
Slightly Warm Slight Warm Stress
0.5 23
Comfortable No Thermal Stress
-0.5 18
Slightly Cool Slight Cool Stress
-1.5 13
Cool Moderate Cool Stress
-2.5 8
Cold Strong Cold Stress
-3.5 <4
Very Cold Extreme Cold Stress
* Internal heat production: 80W, 0.9Clo.
III. STUDY METHOD

A. Study scope
This study analyzed the thermal comfort on an entire city and suggests measures for improvement in urban planning and
thermal comfort. The spatial scope of this study is set as Seoul, Korea (Figure 1). Seoul covers an area of 605.24km2 and has
a population of 10,124,579. It is a metropolis with a higher population density and industrial concentration than other cities in
Korea. The climate zone is a temperate climate and the average annual air temperature is 12.5 °C as of 2015. The average air
temperature in August is 25.7 °C and the maximum air temperature is about 34.2 °C. Seoul with such climatic characteristics
is a hot city where summer heatwaves and heat island phenomena occur frequently.
Moreover, considering recent urban environmental problems, serious problems related to the thermal environment are
emerging with increasing air temperatures in summertime rather than in other seasons. Therefore, 15 days in July, 2015 which
typical summer weather was selected for the analysis in this study.

icshge.org
Figure 1. The study area.
B. Analysis method
The analysis process was divided into three parts (Figure 2). The first part was the urban thermal comfort analysis. To do
this, this study analyzed the climatic factors (air temperature, relative humidity, radiation temperature, wind speed, etc.) at the
pedestrian level and calculated the biological thermal equilibrium factors (age, sex, clothing etc.). The thermal comfort analysis
of this study was estimated by PET. This was calculated using the regression equation by PMV which was analyzed using the
climatic factors and the biological thermal equilibrium factors based on the ISO 7730 standard.
The second part was the selection of urban thermal comfort influencing factors. Preliminary variables were selected as
factors suggested in previous research about the urban thermal environment and thermal comfort. Next, urban thermal comfort
influencing factors were derived based on correlation analysis between the results of PET analysis and preliminary variables
of cases during the entire day (0-24h), during the daytime (06-20h), and during the nighttime (20-06h).
The third part consisted of multiple regression analysis between the results of PET analysis and urban thermal comfort
influencing factors for each of them. This was done to suggest the direction of improving the urban thermal comfort of urban
scale based on sensitivity which affects thermal comfort by the urban thermal comfort influencing factors. As a result of this
process, this study suggests measures to improve the urban thermal comfort of citizens in consideration to periods of urban
activity during the entire day, daytime, and nighttime in the summer.
Figure 2. The framework of improvement methods for urban thermal comfort.
IV. CASE STUDY

The climatic factors for PET analysis were analyzed using the basic data of simulation results of Weather Research and
Forecast-Urban Canopy Model (WRF-UCM) (Lee et al., 2016). The WRF-UCM model is a next-generation numerical model
developed by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) that focuses on high-resolution prediction. The biological
thermal equilibrium factors were assumed to be general outdoor activities conditions for citizens. In other words, the clothing
amount was set as 0.6clo for typical men’s clothes and the walking distance was about 1.4 m/s. The PMV is based on ISO
7730 using the above factors Eq. (1).

icshge.org
(1)
After that, PET was estimated using multiple regression analysis Eq. (2) which was developed using Munich Energy-
balance Model for Individual (MEMI) (Matzarakis et al. 2007).
(2)
A. Climatic factors
1) Air temperature
As a result of analyzing the daily mean air temperature in Seoul, the highest temperature was 28.96 °C (14h) and the
lowest temperature was 20.56 °C (05h). The air temperature trend showed a rapid increase from 05h to 14h and it gradually
decreased. In other words, air temperature increased rapidly by more than 1 °C and subtly decreased to about 0.6 °C per hours
after 15h during the daytime (Figure 3). The average air temperature during the daytime was 26.14 °C and the average air
temperature was 21.93 °C during the nighttime considering sunrise (06h) and sunset (20h). The results of the air temperature
analysis showed the maximum air temperature in the daytime was 36.02 °C and the lowest was 11.77 °C (Table 2). This
situation was expected to be a heat wave and a tropical night during the hot summer weather (Figure 7).
Figure 3. Air temperature trend.

TABLE II
BASIC AIR TEMPERATURE STATISTICS
Channels N. Min.(°C) Max.(°C) Avg.(°C) SD.
Entire day 59,361 11.77 36.02 24.56 4.11

Daytime 59,361 14.53 36.02 26.14 3.79
Nighttime 59,361 11.77 32.39 21.93 3.18
2) Radiation temperature
Analyzing daily average of radiation temperature in the analysis areas revealed that the highest 32.42 °C (14h) and the
lowest was 19.90 °C (05h). The radiation temperature trend showed a rapid increase from 05h to 15h and decreased rapidly to
23.68 °C (21h). The average of radiation temperature increased rapidly by more than 1.8 °C and decreased rapidly by 2.3 °C
after 14h in the daytime (Figure 4). The radiation temperature during the daytime was 28.02 °C and 21.43 °C during the
nighttime (Table 3). But the variation of the radiation temperature trend was larger than air temperature trend. The reason for
this was the effect of black bulb temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity (Figure 8).
Figure 4. Radiation temperature trend.

icshge.org
TABLE III
BASIC RADIATION TEMPERATURE STATISTICS
Channels N. Min.(°C) Max.(°C) Ave.(°C) SD.
Entire day 59,361 10.46 41.29 25.54 5.63
Daytime 59,361 13.62 41.29 28.02 5.08
Nighttime 59,361 10.46 33.92 21.43 3.76
3) Relative Humidity
Analyzing daily average relative humidity revealed the highest was 55.31 % (02h) and the lowest was 13.60 % (15h).
The relative humidity trend showed a rapid increase from 14.01 % (21h) to 55.31 % (02h) and decreased rapidly to 21.81 %
(05h) (Figure 5). The average relative humidity during the daytime was 36.25 % and 48.87 % during the nighttime (Table 4).
Figure 8 shows the results of the relative humidity analysis in daily (Figure 9).
Figure 5. Relative humidity trend.
TABLE IV
BASIC RELATIVE HUMIDITY STATISTICS
Channels N. Min. (%) Max. (%) Avg. (%) SD.
Entire day 59,361 12.33 56.20 40.97 11.23
Daytime 59,361 12.33 30.51 36.25 5.09
Nighttime 59,361 13.30 67.25 48.87 13.91
4) Wind Speed
Analyzing daily average wind speed in Seoul showed that the highest was 5.63m/s (18h) and the lowest was 0.32 m/s
(08h). The wind speed trend showed a rapid increase from 08h to 18h and decreased rapidly to 0.42 m/s (24h) (Figure 6). The
average wind speed during the daytime was 2.10 m/s and the average wind speed was 1.25 m/s during the nighttime considering
sunrise and sunset (Table 5) (Figure 10).
Figure 6. Wind speed trend.
TABLE V
BASIC WIND SPEED STATISTICS
Channels N. Min.(m/s) Max.(m/s) Avg.(m/s) SD.
Entire day 59,361 0.32 5.63 1.78 1.15

Daytime 59,361 1.21 5.63 2.10 1.25
Nighttime 59,361 0.33 5.95 1.25 0.68

icshge.org
Figure 7. Air temperature. Figure 8. Radiation temperature.
Figure 9. Relative humidity. Figure 10. Wind speed.
5) Results of Urban Thermal Comfort Analysis (PET)

The urban thermal comfort analysis in this study was based on PET analysis. Thermal comfort, which is the thermal stress
felt by the human body, was estimated by thermal equilibrium factors such as air temperature, radiation temperature, and
relative humidity at the pedestrian level (2m above surface). Analyzing daily mean PET in Seoul found that the highest
temperature was 38.25 °C (12h) and the lowest temperature was 29.81 °C (04h). The PET trend showed a rapid increase from
05h to 14h and gradually decreased. In other words, the daytime PET increased rapidly by more than 1.2 °C and decreased
subtly to about 0.8 °C after 14h (Figure 11). The average PET during the daytime was 35.74 °C and 30.11 °C during the
nighttime considering sunrise and sunset (Table 6). The results of PET analysis showed a relatively larger variability when
compared with the average daily air temperature. These results indicated that thermal comfort was a result of various climatic
factors including air temperature because of the thermal stress felt by actual citizens (Figure 12). As a result of the thermal
comfort zone analysis temperatures at nighttime except for 18h – 24h and 01h - 08h fell within “Warm” range (29~35 °C).
The daytime temperature gradually deteriorated thermal comfort but improved at 12h, and then got worse again until it
gradually improved from 08:00 to 17:00 within the "Hot" range (35~41 °C). The areas of “Hot” during at entire day were
96.42% in Seoul and among them, areas experiencing deterioration of urban thermal comfort where PET value was over 38.00
°C were 57.43%. These areas that lack rivers, mountainous, and green areas are needed to improve urban thermal comfort due
to the activities citizens mainly perform (Figure 13).
Figure 11. The result of PET analysis trend.

icshge.org
TABLE VI
BASIC PET VALUES STATISTICS
Channels N. Min.(°C) Max.(°C) Avg.(°C) SD.
Entire day 59,361 19.81 41.09 33.63 3.17
Daytime 59,361 23.90 41.09 35.74 1.92
Nighttime 59,361 19.81 36.77 30.11 0.47
Figure 12. The result of PET analysis. Figure 13. The PET values of “Hot” during the entire day.
The areas of "Hot" during the daytime that were the result of the average value of PET analysis were found in the eastern
side and some on the westside of the study area (Figure 14). However, the case of the nighttime was evenly distributed (Figure
15). In other words, urban thermal comfort on the eastern side deteriorated in the daytime, and the western side tended to
evenly deteriorate at night. The areas of “Hot” during the daytime were 96.64% in total study area. Among them, the areas of
urban thermal comfort deterioration where PET value was over 39.5 °C were 23.01% in this study area. Also, the areas of
“Hot” during the nighttime was 26.23%. This was mostly distributed between 35.00 °C and 36.50 °C. This is expected in the
process of improving the atmosphere where urban thermal comfort deteriorated due to direct arrival of the amount of solar
radiation during the daytime at nighttime. The spatial characteristics in the areas of “Hot” were almost high building coverage
ratio and low green area ratio. Particularly in the areas of (1), (3), and (4), there were found to be large surface roughness and
a low H/W ratio because of the difference in height of the buildings (Figure 16). It is expected that urban thermal comfort will
deteriorate due to the shortage of air circulation space and wind paths.
Figure 14. The PET values of “Hot” during the daytime. Figure 15. The PET values of “Hot” during the nighttime.
Figure 16. Photos of particular points of high PET values.
6) Urban thermal comfort influencing factors

Urban spatial factors (preliminary variables) were selected as factors suggested in previous research on the urban thermal

icshge.org
environment and thermal comfort. As a result, preliminary variables were derived from 23 factors including natural ones
(elevation, slope, aspect, etc.) and artificial ones (land use, land cover, and building related factors, etc.) (Table 7). The
preliminary variables were individually spatialized in a grid unit of 100 × 100 m so that they could analyze the correlation
relationship with PET. This was integrated into single data with the previously selected PET estimation results. Selected
preliminary variables among urban spatial factors were created using national geographical information such as new address
business data, building register, land register etc. Next, this study conducted correlation analysis among the results of PET
analysis and urban spatial factors (preliminary variables), and derived urban thermal comfort influencing factors. The results
of the correlation analysis among the preliminary variables and the results of PET analysis showed a significance probability
of less than 0.001. Therefore, urban thermal comfort influencing factors were selected based on the correlation coefficient of
more 0.4 which is a statistical correlated standard.
Positive variables correlated with PET were analyzed as albedo, building coverage ratio, surface roughness, and SVF and
negative ones were green area ratio, public space ratio and H/W ratio in cases of the entire day and daytime. On the other hand,
correlation coefficients of green ratio and surface roughness were less than 0.4, and building length was highly and positively
correlated in the case of the nighttime. The correlation with overall factors was analyzed to be higher in the case of the nighttime
than during the daytime. The results of this analysis revealed that as the albedo, surface roughness, building coverage ratio,
build length and SVF were lower, the green area ratio, H/W ratio and public space ratio were higher, and urban thermal comfort
improved in summer. The selected urban thermal comfort influencing factors among the preliminary variables are shown in
Figure 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22 and 23.
TABLE VII
THE RESULT OF CORRELATION ANALYSIS
Correlation Coefficient
Categories Variables
Entire day Daytime Nighttime
Elevation 0.226** 0.262** -0.058**
Nature Factors Geology Slope 0.217** 0.097** 0.328**
Aspect 0.115** 0.112** 0.117**
Residence 0.184** 0.126** 0.232**
Commerce / Business 0.146** 0.108** 0.194**
Land use Industry 0.197** 0.107** 0.264**
Green / Parks -0.618** -0.512** -0.384**
Public space -0.481** -0.401** -0.516**
Ground coverage Albedo 0.629** 0.465** 0.622**
Building coverage ratio 0.499** 0.411** 0.539**
Floor area ratio -0.090** -0.106** -0.033**
Detached houses 0.079** 0.069** 0.100**
Townhouses 0.028** 0.019** 0.043**
Physical Factors Multiplex houses 0.074** 0.060** 0.100**
Apartments 0.053** 0.021** 0.072**
Use
Commercial buildings 0.114** 0.079** 0.169**
Buildings Business buildings 0.028** 0.012** 0.046**
Industry buildings 0.033** 0.016** 0.054**
Public buildings 0.055** 0.044** 0.071**
Height 0.260** 0.210** 0.326**
Length 0.302** 0.210** 0.415**
H/W ratio -0.602** -0.442** -0.609**
Surface roughness 0.557** 0.526** 0.201**
Sky View Factor(SVF) 0.412** 0.434** 0.464**
** p < 0.001

icshge.org
Figure 17. Green area ratio. Figure 18. Public area ratio. Figure 19. Albedo.
Figure 20. Building coverage ratio. Figure 21. H/W ratio. Figure 22. Surface roughness.
Figure 23. SVF.
7) Results of multiple regressions for urban thermal comfort improvement

Improvement factors of urban thermal comfort are suggested by multiple regression analysis using a step-wise method
which was performed on the results of the PET calculation and urban thermal comfort influencing factors for each case of the
entire day, daytime and nighttime. This was done to derive the sensitivity of the urban thermal comfort influencing factors,
that are independent variables, to the results of the PET calculation that were dependent variables.
As a result of the multiple regression analysis in the case of the entire day, the goodness of fit (R2) was 0.622, and all
urban heat comfort influencing factors (independent variables) were analyzed with a statistical significance of 0.05. The H/W
ratio and green area ratio were negatively correlated with PET, and albedo, surface roughness, building coverage ratio and
SVF were analyzed as being positive. If the H/W ratio is increased by 0.01 or the green area ratio is increased by 1 %, the PET
will decrease by 3.851 °C and 0.312 °C. And if the albedo is 0.1, the roughness is 0.1, the building coverage ratio is 1 %, and
the SVF index is decreased by 0.1, the PET will decrease by 3.943 °C, 1.545 °C, 0.295 °C and 0.084 °C, respectively (Table
8).
TABLE VIII
THE RESULT OF MULTIPLE REGRESSION IN CASE OF ENTIRE DAY
Entire day R R-Squared Adjust R-squared Standard error of estimate
Model 0.788 0.622 0.622 0.566

Unstandardized Standardized
Var.
Coefficients Coefficients
t Sig.
B Std. error Beta
Constant 32.622 0.031 - 1047.809 0.000
Albedo 3.943 0.023 13.354 174.281 0.000
H/W ratio -3.851 0.023 -12.756 -166.790 0.000
Building coverage ratio 0.295 0.034 0.031 8.658 0.000
Surface roughness 1.545 0.199 0.028 7.763 0.000
Green area ratio -0.312 0.168 -0.006 -1.860 0.006
SVF 0.084 0.029 0.010 2.851 0.004
The goodness of fit (R2) of the multiple regression analysis results in the case of daytime was found to be 0.549. And the
effects of each factor were similar to the case of entire day and were considered unstandardized coefficients values. If the

icshge.org
surface roughness, albedo, building coverage ratio and SVF were increased by a unit, the PET will respectively decrease by
5.736 °C, 2.000 °C, 0.671 °C and 0.299 °C. But, if each H/W ratio and green area ratio were increased by such a unit, the PET
will decrease by 1.947 °C and 0.453 °C. As a result, it can be determined that the daytime urban thermal comfort can change
depending on the reflectance of the surface, wind path, solar radiation energy amount, and open space (Table 9).
TABLE IX
THE RESULT OF MULTIPLE REGRESSION IN CASE OF DAYTIME
Daytime R R-Squared Adjust R-squared Standard error of estimate
Model 0.665a 0.549 0.549 0.566

Unstandardized
Standardized Coefficients
Coefficients
Var. t Sig.
B Std. error Beta
Constant 35.356 0.092 - 386.064 0.000
Albedo 2.000 0.031 8.401 64.676 0.000
H/W ratio -1.947 0.031 -8.002 -62.067 0.000
Surface roughness 5.736 0.228 0.194 38.259 0.000
Green area ratio -0.453 0.169 -0.012 -2.678 0.007
SVF 0.299 0.034 0.044 8.844 0.000
The goodness of fit (R2) of the multiple regression analysis results in the case of nighttime was found to be 0.712.
However, unlike the results of the correlation analysis between the results of PET and urban thermal comfort effect factors,
the sensitivities of the dependent values of multiple regression in the nighttime case were lower than that of the daytime. The
surface roughness and green area ratio were excluded because of the statistical significance problem. Alto, the building length
was included. As a result, the PET was reduced by 0.715 °C when the H/W ratio was increased by 0.1. When the building
coverage ratio, albedo, building length, and SVF increased by a unit, the PET decreased by 0.801 °C, 0.753 °C, 0.365 °C, and
0.091 °C. The atmospheric conditions with deteriorated urban thermal comfort due to solar radiation during the daytime
improved at nighttime. Therefore, the urban thermal comfort in the case of nighttime could be controlled due to the change of
the urban physical space, wind path, and open space (Table 10).
TABLE X
THE RESULT OF MULTIPLE REGRESSION IN CASE OF NIGHTTIME
Nighttime R R-Squared Adjust R-squared Standard error of estimate
Model 0.844a 0.712 0.712 0.882

Unstandardized
Standardized Coefficients
Coefficients
Var. t Sig.
B Std. error Beta
Constant 34.687 0.016 - 2197.410 0.000
Albedo 0.753 0.007 7.267 105.548 0.000
H/W ratio -0.715 0.007 -6.754 -96.577 0.000
Building length 0.365 0.021 0.123 17.135 0.000
SVF 0.091 0.015 0.031 6.100 0.000
V. IMPROVEMENT MEASURES OF URBAN THERMAL COMFORT

As a result of this study’s analysis, urban thermal comfort was predicted to improve when the green area ratio, H/W ratio,
and public space ratio were higher, and the albedo, building coverage ratio, surface roughness, and SVF were lower than the
present conditions. There was an increase in the assessment of openness and pith of buildings by controlling of the width of
roads and pedestrian areas, and public spaces. There was a decrease of height difference of buildings considering elevation
and slope.
Based on the results of this study, it is necessary to consider the main activities and time of use by citizens to apply the
proposed factors to improve urban thermal comfort. This is because urban thermal comfort improvement measures need to
emphasize residential areas at nighttime and commercial business areas in daytime. The commercial and business areas that
had a high rate of citizen activity during the daytime could be lowered by the reduction of the albedo, surface roughness,
building coverage ratio, sky view factor, and an increase in the H/W ratio and green area ratio. Moreover, PET in residential
areas that have a high rate of citizen activity during the nighttime could be lowered due to a reduction of the building coverage
ratio, albedo, building length, sky view factor, and increment in the H/W ratio.
We believe these causes are due to the blockage of wind paths and minimization of shadows by high urban density, lack
of public spaces, unbalanced building height, etc. Also, this was due to the increase in the radiation temperature of the areas

icshge.org
and the daytime where sunshine reached directly. Therefore, this study revealed that urban thermal comfort can be improved
by reducing the amount of solar radiation and reflection, wind speed resistance, securing of wind paths, and the creation of air
circulation space and green areas. Reduction of the amount of solar radiation is achieved by securing shadows by increasing
the H/W ratio and decreasing the building coverage ratio. And reduction of wind speed resistance is caused by reducing the
surface roughness which is the difference of the height of a building considering surface elevation and slope. Secure wind
paths and creation of air circulation space are achieved by reducing SVF and building coverage ratio, which is a result of
securing pith of buildings and public open spaces. Securing green areas that create urban parks and street trees can improve
urban thermal comfort by reducing surface reflection and creating air circulation space. The reduction of surface reflection is
achieved by the reduction of the albedo. Generally, the methods to increase albedo are cool-pavements and cool-rooves that
are improvement measures to reduce urban temperatures. But the surface albedo for urban thermal comfort improvement must
be lower than a building roof’s temperature considering pedestrian level.
VI. CONCLUSION
This study suggests measures to improve the urban thermal comfort of citizens in consideration to periods of urban
activity, namely during the entire day (0-24h), during the daytime (06-20h), and during the nighttime (20-06h) in the summer.
For this purpose, this study analyzed urban thermal comfort using PET at the pedestrian level, and derived preliminary
indicators related to elements of urban spatial factors based on previous studies. Then, urban thermal comfort influencing
factors were selected from the correlation analysis between the PET results and the preliminary variables. As a result, factors
such as green area ratio, albedo, public space rate, building coverage ratio, surface roughness, and SVF were derived. In this
study, multiple regression analysis of the above factors and PET values were used to derive sensitivity according to the urban
thermal comfort improvement measures. As a result of this study, the measures for improving urban thermal comfort were
found to be influenced by urban density depending on the shape, size, and layout of buildings. Therefore, this study found that
PET in commercial and business areas had a high rate of citizen activity during the daytime could be lowered by the reduction
of the albedo, surface roughness, building coverage ratio, sky view factor, and an increase in the H/W ratio and green area
ratio. Moreover, PET in the residential areas that have a high rate of citizen activity during the nighttime could be lowered due
to a reduction of the building coverage ratio, albedo, building length, sky view factor, and increase in the H/W ratio. Therefore,
this study revealed that urban thermal comfort can be improved by reducing the amount of solar radiation, wind speed
resistance, securing of wind paths, and the creation of air circulation space. These urban thermal comfort improvement
measures can be utilized to solve serious urban problems resulting from urban thermal stress of urban spaces. Also, the above
measures can be applied in district unit planning and architectural planning. The results of this study are expected to be useful
as basic data for decision making of urban planning to improve urban thermal comfort.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This research was supported by a grant (18ADUP-B102560-04) from the Architecture & Urban Development Research
Program (AUDP) funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of the Korean government.
REFERENCES
Blazejczyk, K., Epstein, Y., Jendritzky, G., Staiger, H. and Tinz, B. (2012). Comparison of UTCI to selected thermal indices. International journal of
biometeorology 56(3), pp. 515-535.
Bosselmann, P. and Arens, E. (1991). Sun, Wind, and Pedestrian Comfort-A Study of Toronto's Central area. Center for Environmental Design Research
University of California at Berkeley.
Bosselmann, P. and Arens, E. (1991). Sun, Wind, and Pedestrian Comfort-A Study of Toronto's Central area. Center for Environmental Design Research
University of California at Berkeley.
Bröde, P., Blazejczyk, K., Fiala, D., Havenith, G., Holmer, I., Jendritzky, G., Kuklane, K. and Kampmann, B. (2013). The universal thermal climate index
UTCI compared to ergonomics standards for assessing the thermal environment. Industrial Health 51(1), pp. 16-24.
Fanger, P.O. (1972). An effective temperature scale based on a simple model of human physiological regulatory response. ASHRAE Transactions, 77, pp.
247-257.
Gonzalez, R., Nishi, Y. and Gagge, A. P. (1974). Experimental evaluation of standard effective temperature a new biometeorological index of man's thermal
discomfort. International Journal of Biometeorology, Volume 18, Issue 1, pp. 1–15.
Hong, Y.S. (2007). Bury these Dreams in the Real Estate. Publisher of the Era of the Window.
Höppe, P. (1999). The physiological equivalent temperature –a universal index for the biometeorological assessment of the thermal environment. Int. J.
Biometeoroi, 43, pp. 71-75.
KATS. (2016). Ergonomics of the Thermal Environment - Analytical Determination and Interpretation of Thermal Comfort using Calculation of the PMV
and PPD Indices and Local Thermal Comfort Criteria, KS A ISO 7730. Korean Standards Information Center.
Konopacki S. and Akbari H. (2002). Energy savings for heat island reduction strategies in Chicago and Houston (including updates for Baton Rouge,
Sacramento, and Salt Lake City). Draft Final Report, LBNL-49638, University of California, Berkeley.
Lane, R.E. (1994). Quality of Life and Quality of persons: A New Role for Well-being Measure. Political Theory, 22(2), pp. 219-252.
Lee, J.S., Jung, J.H., Kim, D.G., Kim, H.W., Won, J.W., Kim, D.W., Won, J.Y., Park, J.E. and Park, J.H. (2014). Future safety issue. Seoul National
Disaster Management Institute in Korea.
Lee, S.H., L., Lee, H.H., Park, S.B., Woo, J.W., Lee, D.I. and Baik, J.J. (2016). Impacts of in‐canyon vegetation and canyon aspect ratio on the thermal
environment of street canyons: numerical investigation using a coupled WRF‐VUCM model. Royal Meteorological Society, vol.142, Issue 699, pp.
2562-2578.
Lim, H.S. (1996). A Conceptual Discussion of a Quality of Life. The Journal of Korea Institute of Public, Administration, 5(1), pp. 5-18.
Matzarakis, A., Rutz, F. and Mayer, H. (2007). Modelling Radiation Fluxes in Simple and Complex Environments: Application of the RayMan model.
International Journal of Biometeorology, 51(4), pp. 323-334.
Olesen, B. and Parsons, K. C. (2002). Introduction to Thermal Comfort standards and to the Proposed New Version of EN ISO 7730. Energy and Building,
34(6), pp. 537-548.

icshge.org
Olgay, V. (1963). Design with Climate: Bioclimatic Approach to Architectural Regionalism. Princeton University Press.
Rosenzweig, C., Solecki W. and Slosberg R. (2007). Mitigating New York City's heat island with urban forestry, living roofs and light surfaces, New York:
New York State Energy Research and Development Authority.
Takebayashi, H. and Moriyama, M. (2009). Study on the urban heat island mitigation effect achieved by converting to grass-covered parking. Solar Energy,
vol. 83, pp. 1211-1223.
Watson, D. (2007). Energy Conservation through Building Design. Chap 6: Architectural Design Based on Climate, McGraw-Hill.
Watson, D. and Labs, K. (1983). Climatic Design: Energy Efficient Building Principles and Practices. McGraw-Hill.

icshge.org
Monitoring the flowering period and number of inflorescences of

Bituminaria bituminosa (L.) C.H.Stirt. grown considering Maria Thun’s
calendar, used in the biodynamic farming
Kaydjieva, K.N.,* and Shahanova, M.B.
University of Forestry, 10 Kliment Ohridsky Blvd., Sofia 1797, Bulgaria; * kristiana.kaidjieva@mail.bg;
mariela.shahanova@mail.bg
Abstract—In the context of sustainable development, the possibility of using local, stress-tolerant flowers as ornamentals can
be considered. On the other hand, biodynamic farming methods ensure both the optimal development of the plant and the
conservation of ecological and biological resources. The current work applies the Maria Thun’s Biodynamic Calendar 2018
for the cultivation of Bituminaria bituminosa (L.) C.H.Stirt. The species is native in Bulgaria, tolerant to adverse ecological
conditions - drought, poor soils, etc. According to the biodynamic farming calendar, two samples of seeds are sown, one group
on “day-flower”, other on an “inappropriate day”. The two groups of plants were grown with all treatments performed on the
respective day. The air temperature in laboratory conditions, as well as outdoor air temperature and rainfall were monitored.
The aim of the following study is to observe the flowering period as duration and number of inflorescences formed for the
individuals in both groups. In case of a positive result, it can be concluded that compliance with the appropriate days on the
Maria Thun’s calendar may increase the duration and intensity of the ornamental effect of Bituminaria bituminosa (L.)
C.H.Stirt.
Keywords—sustainable plants, biodynamic methods, flowering, Bituminaria bituminosa (L.) C.H.Stirt.
I. GOALS AND TASKS
T HE purpose of this study is to determine whether the ornamental properties (abundance of flowers and flowering duration)
of Bituminaria bituminosa (L.) C.H.Stirt. may be affected, depending on the days of sowing, planting and cares according
to Maria Thun's calendar. The following tasks have been set:
1. Sowing seeds of the tested species on days that stimulate flowering (day Flower) and as a control - on an inappropriate day.
2. Sprouting, transplanting and watering the two groups of plants on the respective days and tracking growth level by
biometrics.
3. Monitoring of flowering duration and number of inflorescences in individuals from both groups grown under the same other
conditions.
II. BACKGROUND AND SIGNIFICANCE

In the context of sustainable development, consideration may be given to the use of indigenous, stress-tolerant species as
ornamentals. This reduces production and maintenance costs and supports local ecosystems. The enormous ecological effect
of the application of biodynamic agriculture is the preservation of the soil and living organisms in it, as well as in the
maintenance of the natural balance in the local flora and fauna [1]. Biodynamic studies have a long history and their origins
date back to 1920, as in 1924. Rudolf Steiner, an Austrian scholar, essayist and philosopher, held a series of eight lectures in
Kobberwitz - Koberwitz, now Kobierzyce - Poland [2] in which he formulated his views on changes in agriculture. The basic
life processes of plants - germination, growth, vegetative development, flowering, fertilization, and the resistance of plants to
diseases and pests, are dependent on cosmic and earth rhythms [3]. Thun [4] points out that favorable period of soil cultivation,
TABLE I
BIOMETRY OF BITUMINARIA BITUMINOSA (L.) STIRT. 30-TH DAY AFTER SOWING
Features/ Day Flower
Parameters
plant rosette diameter, cm plant height, cm true leaves, number
Av. 2.78 7.525 4.06
Max. 3.6 9.6 5
Min. 1.7 6.2 3
St. Deviation 0.49 0.84 0.44
Features/ Inappropriate day

Parameters
Av. 2.42 6.89 3.79
Max. 3.2 9.1 5
Min. 1.7 5.5 3
St. Deviation 0.39 1.10 0.80
sowing and caring for crops are defined by the location of the moon and the stars. For that purpose, a calendar called Stella
Natura was created.

icshge.org
In Bulgaria the species Bituminaria bituminosa (L.) C.H.Stirt., synonym Psoralea bituminosa L., Aspalthium
bituminosum (L) Kuntze (Fabaceae) is widespread at an altitude of 0 to 800 m. It is included in the list of protected medicinal
plants and is referred to as an allergenic plant [5] and has been shown to have an apparent ability to keep its vegetative mass
fresh with prolonged droughts and survives in the absence of phosphorus in the soil. It is also used in soil fertilization methods
for heavy metal contamination [6].
In the area of landscape architecture, the tendency for sustainability includes: layout of flower compositions of the
flowering meadow type, which are particularly preferred for dry and poor habitats. Studies show a significant overhaul in the
species composition of perennial ornamental herbaceous species of the local flora (wildflowers) [7][8], as is the case of
Bituminaria bituminosa (L.) Stirt.

The seeds of Bituminaria bituminosa L. (Fabaceae) were harvested by individuals bred in the experimental plot at
University of Forestry, September 2017. Seed sowing was done in two repeats (A and B) under identical conditions. According
to the calendar days of Maria Thun calendar (2018) 2 samples of 20 seeds (1 and 2) were planted by the following scheme:
A1 - sowing in day Flower - 20. 01. 2018
A2 sowing in day Inappropriate - 15. 01. 2018
B1 - sowing in day Flower - 29. 01. 2018
B2 - sowing in day Inappropriate - 30. 01. 2018
Seed sowing: in a laboratory, in 10/20 cm pots, in a peat substrate (pH: 5.5-6.5, organic matter> 80%, medium fiber
structure, NPK: 1.5 kg / m3, Ms / cm 1.0: 1.5), origin of Lithuania. Separating and growing the seedlings: Considering the
peculiarity of the Fabaceae seedlings to develop vertical root system, they were thinned out early, in stage of cotyledon leaves
and initial formation of the first true leaf. The seedlings were separated in pots with a diameter of 7 cm and a depth of 10 cm
of good drainage and soil mixture of peat substrate (mentioned above), garden soil and sand in a ratio of 1.5: 1: 0.5. From
01.03.2018 until ready to plant in outdoors (20-th and 21-th 04.2018) the plants were grown in a greenhouse.
Biometric tracking - stalk height, plant height and true leaves counts on day 30 after sowing and height, rosette diameter,
and leave count in the rosette in July. Open field removal: 20. 04.2018 and 21. 04.2018 In the first 21 days the plants were
watered daily with 250 ml of water per root. They were then left to the naturally fallen rainfall in Sofia.
Air temperature monitoring in laboratory conditions - first 30 days the experiment for each sample (with "433 MHZ-
TEMPERATURSTATION" electronic device). The average daily temperature is calculated by the formula: t aver = {t (7h) +
t (14h) + 2 x t (21h)} / 4. The temperature and rainfall data for the open field growing season are available from the NIMH
website (https://www.stringmeteo.com/).

The air temperature reports during the first 30 days of sowing in the four replicates are similar. The minimum average
temperature for two of them is 17. 1 ºC, while the other average is 17.3 ºC
Average maximum temperatures range between 21.8 ° C and 22.0 ° C. In the greenhouse and in an open bed, all plants
are placed simultaneously under the same conditions.
TABLE II
BIOMETRY OF BITUMINARIA BITUMINOSA (L.) STIRT. THREE MONTHS AFTER BEING PLANTED IN AN OPEN FIELD (JULY 2018)
Features/ Day Flower
Parameters
Av. 21.13 9.31 68
Max. 28 13.5 105
Min. 11 5.5 38
St. Deviation 5.34 2.21 21.42
Features/ Inappropriate day

Parameters
Av. 18.89 7.39 53.57
Max. 32 10 82
Min. 9 4 20
St. Deviation 5.48 1.97 19.68
Seeds at three of the samples A1, A2, B1 germinated on the 6th day after sowing, and in B2, the germination was uneven
on the 6th and 8th day after sowing. The total number of seeds per day Flower is 16, and on Inappropriate day - 14 pcs.
Biometric performance reports on the 30th day after sowing have shown a better development of the individuals (of both
samples) per day Flower, by all trace indicators, compared to the individuals sowed on day Inappropriate (Table 1).
Once exported to an open-field, the plants formed new leaves but did not form a stem as it is typical for the species.
Rosettes with a large number of leaves were formed. Increased vegetative growth at the expense of inducing a reproductive
phase is probably due to the wet summer (Fig. 2-6) with relatively low average temperatures and high rainfall. This assumption
is also based on results provided by Gulumser [9] and Melis [10]. In their studies carried out with Bituminaria species, an

icshge.org
occurrence of withered peripheral leaves of the rosette in dry summers was observed. In our observations the rosettes remained
extremely compact as all leaves remained green throughout the duration of the experiment. Bituminaria bituminosa (L.)
C.H.Stirt. is reported as a plant of the long day. At the supposed time of inflorescence (the longest day for our latitudes is in
June) there was extremely strong, non-typical for the season rainfall, so the plants do not turn in blossom. According to some
references, the species usually turn in blossom in spring. Probably the plants we grow will set inflorescences in the next (second
year after sowing). Tab. 2 contains biometric data six months after sowing and three months after outdoor exposure. The results
are again unambiguous - the size of the rosettes of the individuals of day Flower are higher and larger in diameter and generally
have a larger number of leaves - between 38 and 105 per rosette in comparison with 20-82 per rosette as for individuals in the
group on an Inappropriate day.
V. CONCLUSIONS
1) Under the same conditions, sowing seeds according to the Maria Thun calendar on a day suitable for blooming and on an
inappropriate day does not explicitly affect seed germination but affects the development of the vegetative mass of the
plants.
2) The values of the surveyed features of the plants grown from seeds, sown on day Flower, exceed those of the seeds sown
on day Inappropriate by between 30 and 40%.
3) In the extra-wet for the climate of Bulgaria summer of 2018, the plants of Bituminaria bituminosa (L.) C.H.Stirt. have
shown probability of blooming in the second year of their lives.
REFERENCES
[1] V. Vlahova, Arabska Ek., 2015, Biodynamic agriculture - eco-friendly agricultural practice, New Knowledge Journal of Science Vol. 4, No 2 (2015)
ISSN 2367-4598, University of Agribusiness and Rural Development Academic Publishing House, Bulgaria).
[2] Paull, J., 2011. Biodynamic agriculture: The Journey from Koberwitz to the world, 1924- 1938. Journal of Organic Systems, 6 (1), ISSN 1177-4258,
pp. 27-41.
[3] Steiner R., 2001. Biodynamic Farming. Spiritual-scientific principles for the development of agriculture. Kobervitz Agricultural Course: Eight
lectures. (GA327) Publishing house Daskalov, pp.307.
[4] Maria Thun, Matthias Thun, 2018, The Maria Thun Biodynamic Calendar, Publisher SALPST, ISBN: 97-619-90097-2-7, pp. 63.
[5] Medicinal Plants Act 2013, List of protected medical plants in Bulgaria, which are regulated by the Medicinal Plants Act.
riosv.icon.bg/items/documents/145_1.doc
[6] Kohler J., F. Caravaca, R. Azcón, G. Díaz, A. Roldán, 2014. Selection of Plant Species–Organic Amendment Combinations to Assure Plant
Establishment and Soil Microbial Function Recovery in the Phytostabilization of a Metal-Contaminated Soil Water Air Soil Pollut 225:1930.
[7] Kuneva Tz., D. Dancheva, Zl. Kabatliyska, 2015, Current trends in the creation of flowering meadows in urban areas, Agricultural University–
Plovdiv, Scientific Works, Volume LIХ, issue 4, pp. 111-122.
[8] Kouneva Tz., Zl. Kabatliyska, B. Atanasova. 2008 Flowering meadows as an ecological type of flower composition. Eco Seminar April 17-18, CLOE.
Ecological engineering and environmental protection. Thematic number “Ecology”, 7 ;2-3/2008, pp. 71-75.
[9] Gulumser E., U. Basaran. Acar, I. Ayan, H. Mut. 2010. Determination of some agronomic traits of Bituminaria bituminosa accessions collected from
Middle Black Sea Region. Options Méditerranéennes, A no. 92, 2010 — The contributions of grasslands to the conservation of Mediterranean
biodiversity, pp 105- 108.
[10] Melis M., A. Franca, G.A. Porqueddu. 2017. Bio-agronomic characterization and implications on the potential use as forage of Bituminaria bituminosa
and B. morisiana accessions. Grass and Forage Science.

icshge.org
A Framework for Assessing the Environmentally Sustainable and

Resilience Performance of Domestic Building Materials in Saudi Arabia
Almulhim, M.S.,* Hunt, D.V.L., and Rogers, C.D.F.
University of Birmingham, Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK;
*
msa352@bham.ac.uk
Abstract—Studies indicate that environmentally sustainable building design and construction entails the careful assessment
from cradle-to-grave of resources required in the building process. Resilience, on the other hand, emphasizes future proofing,
not least mitigating long-term risks to building performance once built. Both focus on the design, building strategies and
material used in construction. One of the major challenges to standardized sustainability and resilience assessment is the fact
that every assessing body has its particular procedure for determining environmental sustainability and resilience, including a
plethora of locally derived indicators, metrics and benchmarks. Therefore, when completely different contexts and local
conditions are considered, where different environmental challenges ensue (e.g. arid regions like Saudi Arabia) they can
become inefficient or simply lack meaning. The primary focus of this research is to present a framework to determine the
usage of structural building materials in Saudi Arabia’s domestic buildings to minimise carbon emissions and reduce energy
use. The study analyses the sustainability and resilience of various domestic properties in Saudi Arabia using locally developed
and manufactured materials. The research adopts a Resilience and Sustainability Assessment Framework for Domestic
buildings (RSAF) which builds upon and draws from universal procedures customized to Saudi Arabia’s needs for both
sustainability and resilience. The paper concludes that structural materials are the most significant component of resilience and
sustainability when it comes to carbon emissions and energy use. The framework and associated tools are expected to play a
critical role in engendering greater use of environmentally sustainable, resilient building materials in Saudi Arabia.
Keywords—sustainability, resilience, building materials, Saudi Arabia
I. INTRODUCTION
I N the past few decades, awareness on the environmental effects of building and construction materials has significantly
increased (Friar and Vittori, 2017; Melià et al., 2014; Zhong and Wu, 2015). Apart from being vulnerable, buildings have
also been reported to be significant emitters of carbon dioxide, both through construction process and end-use, thereby
contributing to climate change (Al-Shihri, 2016). Although data for Saudi Arabia are not readily available, in the USA, it has
been reported that in 2016, as much as 40% of the emissions produced were attributed to buildings (MIT Concrete
Sustainability Hub, 2016). Meanwhile, billions of investment dollars are lost due to the increasing intensity of natural elements,
such as hurricanes, tornados and sandstorms (Al-Bassam et al., 2014; Mechler and Bouwer, 2015). Consequently, the building
sector must embrace strategies that reduce emissions as well as reduce their vulnerability to environmental hazards (Park et
al., 2017).
Therefore, the concepts of sustainability and resilience have increasingly been applied to the building sector to inform
many aspects of the building process from creating building plans to the laying of building foundations, occupation, and
ultimately demolishing the building itself (Akadiri et al., 2012; Hill and Bowen, 1997). Sustainability in the building and
construction sector refers to concepts that incorporate ecological, financial and social aspects in the design and implementation
of building projects (Eichholtz et al., 2016). Based on the growing attention to the related ecological, financial and social
factors, buildings have been designed to be less energy intensive and more environment friendly (El Mallakh, 2015; Elliott,
2012).
The most important reason for using sustainable building materials is to improve people’s environmental, economic and
social conditions for improved quality of life (Aldossary et al., 2015; Lundvall et al., 2002). The concept of an environmentally
sustainable building requires developers to adopt the best construction practices in order to reduce negative environmental
impacts (Alaidroos and Krarti, 2015). The main concerns for the environmental sustainability of buildings are the use of
appropriate building materials and components, as well as energy efficiency issues (Al-Gahtani et al., 2016). The emphasis on
building materials is logical in the sense that they are the units that make up the building. Thus, any sustainability effort must
begin with the characteristics of the raw materials to be used in a construction project (Lundvall et al., 2002).
Resilience on the other hand refers to the ability of the completed structure(s) to resist extrinsic disturbances and their
ability to recover quickly from the effects of such disturbances (Fisher et al., 2012; Gunderson, 2001; Holling, 1973). For
example, it refers to the building’s ability to recover desirable functionality following extreme natural events (Hunt et al.,
2013: Bunz et al., 2006). This is particularly important for a country such as Saudi Arabia where there are a lot of sandstorms
in many parts of the country. Bocchini et al. (2013) argue that resilience is not a structural problem alone. For instance, the
recovery process and restoration of the building structure after an extreme natural event are influenced significantly by the
political and socio-economic conditions of the community (Bocchini et al., 2013; Rogers et al., 2012).
Therefore, resilience needs more than just a structure withstanding the natural elements; it also relies on the ability of the
residents to execute a prompt, effective and efficient recovery to their buildings (Alshehri et al., 2013a). Thus, structural
resilience and the ability of the community to execute resiliency are interdependent (Bunz et al., 2006). The resilience of a
building against extreme shock events is dependent on its structural traits, yet recovery from the disaster is influenced by the
community’s political, socio-economic and technological realities (Berardi, 2012).

icshge.org
This paper is a review of the importance of developing a framework for assessing the environmentally sustainable and
resilience performance of domestic building materials in Saudi Arabia. The need for a sustainability and resilience framework
in Saudi Arabia is reviewed, and a proposed framework has been presented. Finally, conclusions are drawn.
II. THE NEED FOR SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE IN SAUDI ARABIA

A. Sustainability
Much of the published literature reviewed concerning the resilience and sustainability of materials in the building sector
is not directly tailored to Saudi Arabia. Moreover, there are studies that focus on sustainability and/or resilience of structural
materials, but they do not directly focus on residential buildings. There is a clear gap in the literature on how these structural
materials have an impact on the construction industry and, specifically, on residential buildings in Saudi Arabia.
Sustainability is a critical consideration for Saudi Arabia to continue leading the way for other Gulf countries in terms of
construction by only permitting the erection of iconic structures but also by respecting the ecological balance of the desert
climate and not placing undue pressure on scarce water and energy resources (Aldossary, 2014). The lack of sustainability and
efficiency in modern housing materials in Saudi Arabia is, according to Al Surf et al. (2014), associated with rapid population
growth in the Kingdom. According to the study conducted by Al Surf et al. (2014), the implementation of economic,
environmental and socio-cultural factors to develop the next generation of sustainable housing in Saudi Arabia successfully is
vital. Other problems in Saudi Arabia include the growing rates of electricity and water consumption, which are dependent on
burning fossil fuel, of which there is an abundant supply, rather than using renewable energy sources (Jalaei and Jrade, 2015).
Taleb and Sharples (2011) shows how residential buildings in Saudi Arabia are great energy consumers and how they have a
significant impact on the ecology of any region and the planet as a whole. Baharetha et al. (2012) and Banani et al. (2016)
recommend that sustainability can only be fully achieved by educating the public through the Saudi Arabian local media about
the benefits of using sustainable methods in existing and new buildings. They also stress that sustainability is easy to achieve
in Saudi Arabia, since the country is still developing, even though the growth of construction is at its highest in the modern
era (Salam et al., 2014).
B. Resilience
Mortada (2016) asserts that resilience is attained when buildings are constructed in a manner that suits specific cultural,
climatic and general environmental conditions. A study conducted by Alshehri et al. (2013b) shows that Saudi Arabia requires
adequate preparation to overcome the natural disasters affecting the Kingdom, including epidemics, floods and dust storms.
Abou-Korin and Al-Shihri (2015) emphasise the need to establish resilient structures that can withstand these natural disasters,
given that Saudi Arabia has recently become a disaster prone area. For example, the last two decades have seen various areas
of the country affected by flooding, dust storms, earthquakes and volcanic activities.
C. Resilience and Sustainability
Abou-Korin and Al-Shihri (2015) affirm that urban sustainability is a mandatory aspect of sustainable development
policy. Their findings suggest that rapid urbanisation results in resilience and sustainability inefficiencies, as the speedy
construction of infrastructure is based on limited planning and management procedures excluding the necessary geoscientific
data and optimal architectural designs. El Mallakh (2015) study the resilience of housing structures based on the existing
knowledge of the sustainability of low-energy homes, home typologies and overall patterns of domestic energy consumption.
In El Mallakh’s study, energy usage and consumption behaviours are listed as key aspects of the resilience and sustainability
of the home. In this case, cultural barriers are identified as some of the factors that currently prevent sustainability and resilience
of housing structures being better integrated. As such, the researchers insist on the value of formulating solutions that capture
the economic, environmental, social and technical design aspects of the given community (Kumar et al., 2017).
According to Gardner and Colwill (2016), critical materials for manufacturing industries and economies include the
materials those combine high economic importance with scarcity. For example, those materials such as rare earth metals, which
includes elements such as dysprosium and neodymium, are of high value, especially in products utilised in renewable energy
technologies (Fisher, Harre-Young and Bosher, 2012). Even though the Gardner and Colwill (2016) research is based on EU
members, the findings can be applied in Saudi Arabia in order to produce sustainable manufacturing systems within the
building industry. A sustainable manufacturing system is needed where the role of resilience in material supply is critical
(Jalaei and Jrade, 2015). Bakhoum and Brown (2012) indicate that the process of selecting structural materials to be used in
construction is one of the most vital considerations for sustainable and resilient development within the construction industry.
The limited natural resources, socio-economic issues and the serious environmental impacts make it extremely difficult to
develop sustainable structures (Rogers et al., 2017). In a review conducted by Nielsen et al. (2016), the importance of decision
support tools for the renovation of buildings is highlighted, since they provide the necessary assistance in setting sustainability
goals for professional building owners. The decision-support tools also enable the sustainability objectives to be realised
through the design process in the renovation of a single building. The decision-making tools suggested for the renovation of
existing buildings can be applied to a wide range of environments, including Saudi Arabia (Charoenkit and Kumar, 2017).
According to research conducted by Alyami et al. (2015), the well-established regulation methods of the construction industry
are suited to developing countries, and this comment is relevant to Saudi Arabia. Therefore a bespoke system is likely to be
required.

icshge.org
D. Combining Sustainability and Resilience frameworks

Combining sustainability and resilience frameworks will undoubtedly create a comfortable living environment for Saudi
Arabia citizens and also protect investors and constructors from losses brought about by adverse weather conditions. In the
last decade, there has been significant improvement in Saudi Arabia’s energy policies, as the government implemented various
initiatives and efforts to help establish energy efficient building in the country. For example, the adopted initiatives have sought
to provide support for research, of which this study is part, to create a culture of sustainability and to build structures that meet
international standards (Sidawi, Deakin and Al Waer, 2013). Currently, there is a notable drive supporting the implementation
of sustainability and resilience concepts through the Saudi Arabia Vision 2030 program. The country seeks to aspire to a
thriving, sustainable and stable economy, to provide opportunities for development and to empower the private sector via
improved partnership opportunities, a healthy employment drive and prosperity for all Saudi Arabians (Government of Saudi
Arabia, 2016). According to Banani et al. (2016), policymakers may use not only incentives but also penalties (for violating
environmental policies) to achieve the desired sustainability outcomes in Saudi Arabia.
III. THE PROPOSED (RSAF) FRAMEWORK

A framework is proposed (Figure 1) that will assess the environmental, social, economic and resilience performance of
building material(s) along the entire life-cycle process. In other words from extraction, processing, transportation, construction,
through to operation, maintenance, renovation and demolition. Within an Excel-based spread sheet each step of the process is
passed through a filter (consisting of indicators and metrics) for assessing resilience and sustainability. For example,
environmentally sustainable indicators and metrics are used to assess energy (embodied and long-term consumption) and
carbon embedded and embodied) and water (embodied). Criteria can be used to assess as many materials as possible. The
framework allows material choices to be refined and improved as new information emerges within each step. For example,
Step 6 may provide new evidence for improving Step 1, or Step 3 may improve Step 2.
Filter for Assessing Sustainability aspects

(i.e. Environmental, Social and Economic)
of domestic building material(s)
.
Filter for Assessing Resilience aspects
of domestic building material(s)
(STEP 1) Extraction of raw

material(s)
(STEP 2) Processing of the

material(s)
(STEP 3) Movement
(transportation) of material(s)
(STEP 4) Construction of domestic

building with chosen material(s)
(STEP 5) Maintenance and Long

term operation of domestic building
(STEP 6) Demolition and

reprocessing material(s) for end use
Figure 1. The RSAF framework: Steps and Filters for assessing Resilience and Sustainability of domestic building materials in Saudi Arabia.

icshge.org
The outer ‘sustainability’ filter looks to protect and enhance the environment, hence the measurement of the material’s
environmental aspect is considered regarding ecology, required energy and resources. The attention paid to the concept of
“ecology” is to minimize the negative effects on nature through reduced pollution resulting from the use of building materials.
The concern for ecology is also to minimise the heat island effect in addition to protecting the ecological area.
The most common issues regarding ecology relates to low emitting materials within the buildings super-structure but also
surfacing materials that give building an aesthetic appeal. Regarding energy efficiency, the choice of building materials used
in Saudi Arabia will also impact on the energy performance (i.e. keeping heat in or conversely out) of any new building in the
longer term. In addition, this framework promotes reducing waste (during construction) as well as increasing the use of
recycled and re-used materials.
The social aspect is related to the conformity of the material to the building customs and traditions of Saudi Arabia. The
economic efficiency aspect deals with the material costs in terms of construction, maintenance and repair, as well as the
marketability of the building material.
The inner filter looks at resilience aspects and is concerned with the long term impacts of the material when considering
such aspects as the long-term ‘bounce-back-ability’ of the buildings (e.g. the ability of materials to withstand sandstorms,
earthquakes, extreme ranges and values of heat / cold and other adverse environmental effects).
The framework once fully developed will be used to assess a range of materials used within the building during
construction (short term) and through the life time of the building.
IV. DISCUSSION
The construction industry is becoming more environmentally-conscious of sustainable building materials in the push for
more sustainable business models. Of particular concern is the energy use of building materials in the development of
sustainable and resilient buildings. The focus is on the entire life cycle of the materials to ensure, not least in terms of energy
and water consumption, they lead to more sustainable and resilient structures. As such, the proposed assessment framework
encompasses processes that occur before, during and after a domestic property is built. It is concerned with the entire process
involving raw material extraction, processing, packaging and transportation to the destination sites, building operation and
maintenance to building demolition, recycling waste building materials, or disposing of them. By and large, activities that
occur prior to or after the construction itself have taken place are all too often ignored and yet they are major contributors to
the carbon footprint of the building process. As such they require practical solutions, such as the framework proposed here, to
ensure that sustainable and resilience integrity of the building is supported.
The building phase (STEP 3) involves the actual physical incorporation of the raw materials and components into the
building structure and the operation phase (STEP 4) incorporates their continued use during the lifetime of the completed
building. These are the two phases that contribute most heavily to the environmental burdens of a domestic building. Moreover,
the use and maintenance of buildings should be implemented in such a way that the occupants are safe from potentially harmful
materials (i.e., those that leave an environmentally negative lifetime legacy). This includes the finishes and coatings, which
are mostly applied to a completed building to provide the aesthetic appeal that the owner / occupier desires. In addition, at the
end of the usefulness of the building (STEP 6), demolition and, where possible, recycling and reuse of the materials are needed.
This post-building era is a major concern, not least in Saudi Arabia because of the potentially high environmental consequences
in terms of the spreading of toxic waste in the environment and landfill issues related to waste matter, the current concerns
with plastics are an unfortunate continuing legacy from many buildings that have gone before. Hopefully a framework such as
that proposed herein, can help to better inform decision-making surrounding domestic buildings in Saudi Arabia in order that
such legacies are positive rather than negative.
A pressing issue is carbon reduction, hence in this respect a good material selection model, as the framework proposed
here emphasises, the carbon emissions related to the extraction, transportation and the use of the building’s raw materials.
While the buildings themselves affect energy use and the environment, all of which are included in the framework, the building
process itself increases significantly energy use and related carbon emissions, not least the production of cement (Madlool et
al., 2011) and the use of dwindling resources such as aggregates (Impacts on STEP 2). As such, innovative designs are required
to ensure that the least possible amount of structural material is consumed in buildings, waste by-products (e.g. fly-ash) are
adopted (impacts on STEP 2) and as much as is feasibly possible is locally sourced (reducing transportation impacts – STEP
3). In combination this will result in a structure that minimises the use of energy reduces the solid waste. [The emphasis on the
use of local material is because shorter transportation distances are associated with lower harmful emissions and not just CO2
(e.g. Nitrogen Oxides, Volatile Organic Compounds, etc.).
It may be the fact that the use of building materials, such as reinforced concrete and timber, are recommended for
residential buildings because of their combination of environmentally sustainable credentials and because they meet the
resilience requirements. However, in all cases their application will be dependent upon the geographic location as well as the
economic activities of the building site (e.g. local context and conditions). For example, well forested areas can readily provide
local timber as an alternative for steel, while clay can be used an alternative to stone aggregate where quarries are located far
away from the construction site of the building. However, the final decision is likely to be based upon ease of use, current
knowledge and practice and long-term structural reliability – one of the many reasons why reinforced concrete is widely
adopted in building projects.

icshge.org
V. CONCLUSION
The research has established that considering resilience and sustainability is important to improving the residential
building sector in Saudi Arabia. This research has shown that whilst numerous frameworks exist for implementing resilience
and sustainability, they have not been applied in, or may not be applicable for adoption in, Saudi Arabia. This is because of
the special nature of buildings, cultural and climatic conditions, ineffective management, poor implementation and overall lack
of public awareness, among other reasons, and has resulted in the failure of the available frameworks to cater for the rapidly
growing residential building sector in Saudi Arabia. Therefore, a Resilience and Sustainability Assessment Framework
developed specifically for assessment of the sustainability and resilience of Domestic Properties in Saudi Arabia (the RSAFD
as proposed here) is required. The hope is for better integration of resilience and sustainability at the earliest stages within the
decision-making process in order that a positive long-term legacy in each of these areas is achieved.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The main author (Mohammad Almulhim) gratefully acknowledges the financial support of Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal
University given to him during his studies and the co-authors also gratefully acknowledge the financial support given to them
by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) under grant EP/J017698/1 (Transforming the
Engineering of Cities to Deliver Societal and Planetary Wellbeing).
REFERENCES
Aboukorin, A. A. & Al-shihri, F. S. (2015) Rapid urbanization and sustainability in Saudi Arabia: the case of Dammam metropolitan area. Journal of
Sustainable Development, 8(9), 52.
Akadiri, P. O., Chinyio, E. A. & Olomolaiye, P. O. (2012) Design of a sustainable building: A conceptual framework for implementing sustainability in the
building sector. Buildings, 2(2), 126-152.
Al-Bassam, A. M., Zaidi, F. K. & Hussein, M. T. (2014) Natural hazards in Saudi Arabia. Extreme Natural Events, Disaster Risks and Societal
Implications, 243-251.
Al-Gahtani, K., Alsulaihi, I., El-Hawary, M. & Marzouk, M. (2016) Investigating sustainability parameters of administrative buildings in Saudi Arabia.
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 105, 41-48.
Al-Shihri, F. S. (2016) Impacts of large-scale residential projects on urban sustainability in Dammam Metropolitan Area, Saudi Arabia. Habitat
International, 56, 201-211.
Al Surf, M. S., Susilawati, C. & Trigunarsyah, B. (2014) The role of the Saudi government and the Saudi building code in implementing sustainable
housing construction in Saudi Arabia.
Alaidroos, A. & Krarti, M. (2015) Optimal design of residential building envelope systems in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Energy and Buildings, 86, 104-
117.
Aldossary, N. A., Rezgui, Y. & Kwan, A. (2014) Energy Consumption Patterns for Domestic Buildings in Hot Climates Using Saudi Arabia as Case Study
Field: Multiple Case Study Analyses, Computing in Civil and Building Engineering (2014), 1986-1993.
Aldossary, N. A., Rezgui, Y. & Kwan, A. (2015) Consensus-based low carbon domestic design framework for sustainable homes. Renewable and
Sustainable Energy Reviews, 51, 417-432.
Alshehri, S., Rezgui, Y. & Li, H. (2013a) Community resilience factors to disaster in Saudi Arabia: the case of Makkah Province. WIT Transactions on The
Built Environment, 133, 359-368.
Alshehri, S. A., Rezgui, Y. & Li, H. (2013b) Public perception of the risk of disasters in a developing economy: the case of Saudi Arabia. Natural hazards,
65(3), 1813-1830.
Alyami, S. H., Rezgui, Y. & Kwan, A. (2015) The development of sustainable assessment method for Saudi Arabia built environment: weighting system.
Sustainability Science, 10(1), 167-178.
Baharetha, S., Al-Hammad, A. & Alshuwaikhat, H. (2013) Towards a unified set of sustainable building materials criteria, ICSDEC 2012: Developing the
Frontier of Sustainable Design, Engineering, and Construction, 732-740.
Bakhoum, E. S. & Brown, D. C. (2011) Developed sustainable scoring system for structural materials evaluation. Journal of construction engineering and
management, 138(1), 110-119.
Banani, R., Vahdati, M. M., Shahrestani, M. & Clements-Croome, D. (2016) The development of building assessment criteria framework for sustainable
non-residential buildings in Saudi Arabia. Sustainable Cities and Society, 26, 289-305.
Berardi, U. (2012) Sustainability assessment in the construction sector: rating systems and rated buildings. Sustainable Development, 20(6), 411-424.
Bocchini, P., Frangopol, D. M., Ummenhofer, T. & Zinke, T. (2013) Resilience and sustainability of civil infrastructure: Toward a unified approach.
Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 20(2), 04014004.
Bunz, K. R., Henze, G. P. & Tiller, D. K. (2006) Survey of sustainable building design practices in North America, Europe, and Asia. Journal of
architectural engineering, 12(1), 33-62.
Charoenkit, S. & Kumar, S. (2017) Building low-carbon and disaster-resilient communities: integrating climate mitigation and adaptation into the
assessment of self-help housing design. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 22(5), 695-728.
Eichholtz, P. M., Kok, N. & Quigley, J. M. (2016) Ecological responsiveness and corporate real estate. Business & Society, 55(3), 330-360.
El Mallakh, R. (2015) Saudi Arabia: Rush to Development (RLE Economy of Middle East): Profile of an energy economy and investmentRoutledge.
Elliott, J. A. (2012) An introduction to sustainable development.Routledge.
Fisher, J., Harre-Young, S. N. & Bosher, L. S. (2012) Understanding the relationship between resilience and sustainability: emergency planning and the
design of urban spaceCompetence Center of Urban and Regional Planning (CORP).
Friar, J. H. & Vittori, W. D. (2017) The Pharos Project: Solving the building materials toxicity challenge. Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, 41(1),
131-141.
Gardner, L. & Colwill, J. (2016) A framework for the resilient use of critical materials in sustainable manufacturing systems. Procedia CIRP, 41, 282-288.
Government of Saudi Arabia. (2016) Saudi Arabia’s Vision for 2030. Available at: http://vision2030.gov.sa/en (Accessed: 3 April 2017).
Gunderson, L. H. (2001) Panarchy: understanding transformations in human and natural systemsIsland press.

icshge.org
Hill, R. C. & Bowen, P. A. (1997) Sustainable construction: principles and a framework for attainment. Construction Management & Economics, 15(3),
223-239.
Holling, C. S. (1973) Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annual review of ecology and systematics, 4(1), 1-23.
Hunt, D.V.L., Rogers, C.D. and Jefferson, I. (2013) Scenarios analysis through a futures performance framework. In Proceedings of the Institution of Civil
Engineers-Engineering Sustainability, 166 (5), 258-271.
Jalaei, F. & Jrade, A. (2015) Integrating building information modeling (BIM) and LEED system at the conceptual design stage of sustainable buildings.
Sustainable Cities and Society, 18, 95-107.
Kumar, V., Hewage, K., Haider, H. & Sadiq, R. (2017) Sustainability evaluation framework for building cooling systems: a comparative study of snow
storage and conventional chiller systems. Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, 19(1), 137-155.
Lundvall, B.-Å., Johnson, B., Andersen, E. S. & Dalum, B. (2002) National systems of production, innovation and competence building. Research policy,
31(2), 213-231.
Madlool, N.A., Saidur, R., Hossain, M.S. and Rahim, N.A. (2011) A critical review on energy use and savings in the cement industries. Renewable and
Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15(4), 2042-2060.
Mechler, R. & Bouwer, L. M. (2015) Understanding trends and projections of disaster losses and climate change: is vulnerability the missing link? Climatic
Change, 133(1), 23-35.
Melià, P., Ruggieri, G., Sabbadini, S. & Dotelli, G. (2014) Environmental impacts of natural and conventional building materials: a case study on earth
plasters. Journal of cleaner production, 80, 179-186.
MIT Concrete Sustainability Hub (2016) Sustainable, Resilient Buildings. Available at:
https://cshub.mit.edu/sites/default/files/documents/MITCSHub_factsheet-buildings Aug2016_FINAL.pdf (Accessed: 20 April 2018).
Mortada, H. (2016) Sustainable Desert Traditional Architecture of the Central Region of Saudi Arabia. Sustainable Development, 24(6), 383-393.
Nielsen, A. N., Jensen, R. L., Larsen, T. S. & Nissen, S. B. (2016) Early stage decision support for sustainable building renovation–A review. Building and
environment, 103, 165-181.
Park, J., Yoon, J. & Kim, K.-H. (2017) Critical review of the material criteria of building sustainability assessment tools. Sustainability, 9(2), 186.
Rogers, C.D.F., Bouch, C.J., Williams, S., Barber, A.R.G., Baker, C.J., Bryson, J.R., Chapman, D.N., Chapman, L., Coaffee, J., Jefferson, I. & Quinn, A.D.
(2012) Resistance and resilience-paradigms for critical local infrastructure. In Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Municipal
Engineer, 165(2), 73-83.
Rogers, C.D.F., Hunt, D.V.L., Leach, J.M., Purnell, P. & Roelich, K.E. (2017) Briefing: Resource scarcity and resource security–a suppressed civil
engineering challenge. In Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Waste and Resource Management, 170(2), 49-52.
Salam, A. A., Elsegaey, I., Khraif, R. & Al-Mutairi, A. (2014) Population distribution and household conditions in Saudi Arabia: reflections from the 2010
Census. SpringerPlus, 3(1), 530.
Sidawi, B., Deakin, M., and Al Waer, H. (2013) Development in the Gulf: sustainable, intelligent and smart. Smart and Sustainable Built Environment, 2(3).
Taleb, H. M. & Sharples, S. (2011) Developing sustainable residential buildings in Saudi Arabia: A case study. Applied Energy, 88(1), 383-391.
Zhong, Y. & Wu, P. (2015) Economic sustainability, environmental sustainability and constructability indicators related to concrete-and steel-projects.
Journal of Cleaner Production, 108, 748-756.

icshge.org
Smallholder farmers’ perception of and adaptation strategies for

climate change: Associations with observed climate variability and a
calculated drought index
Zhang, Q., and Tang, H.
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing
Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Abstract—In addition to many other stressors, smallholder farmers’ survival and livelihood largely suffers diverse climatic
risks. Based on face-to-face interview data with 68 randomly selected pastoral households in the Hulunbeier grassland in
northern China, this study investigated their perceptions of historical climate change and its impacts and the associations
of these perceptions with observed climate change and a calculated drought index. Meanwhile, we identified farmers’
responses to climate change as well as barriers in the adaptation process. Using binary logistic regression models to
determine the factors that influence the climate change adaptation strategies. The results showed that farmers have
relatively strong and accurate perceptions of changes in climatic conditions, except for rainfall. Most of the farmers adopted
a combination of adaptation strategies of “expansive + accommodating + contractive” or “expansive + contractive”. In
general, farmers simultaneously implemented three of ten climate change adaptation strategies. Of the strategies, “reduce
livestock”, “purchase fodder” and “stop grazing” were the three most popular adaptation strategies among farmers. The
results also showed that the following factors potentially constrain the adoption of mitigation strategies at the household
level: high frequency and duration of droughts, limited grassland size, and inadequate labour. The household head
demographics, human capital, physical capital, social capital and location capital significantly influenced the choice of
household adaptation strategies. These findings may provide a reference for further research on the formation of human
adaptation strategies in the context of regional and global environmental change.
Keywords—adaptation barriers, livelihood capital, SPEI index, pastoral households
I. INTRODUCTION
R ECENT evidence and predictions indicate that climate change is accelerating and will lead to wide-ranging shifts in
climate variables characterized by increases in both the intensity and frequency of extreme climatic events (IPCC
2014), such as floods and droughts (Petley 2012). These unprecedented changes will in turn affect the development of
ecosystems and humankind, posing serious threats to food, water security, public health, natural resources, and biodiversity
(Rodima-Taylor et al. 2012; Pandey et al. 2017). According to the International Disaster Database, the global average value
of losses caused by drought from 1960 to 2016 was approximately US$221 billion per year. However, with increases in
global warming intensity, the frequency and duration of droughts are showing a clear upward trend (Giannakopoulos et al.
2009; Guo 2012), and the global terrestrial extreme drought area is expanding (Dai et al. 2004), particularly in the Eurasian
and African continents (Fu and Ma 2008; Ma and Fu 2007).
Although climate change is becoming a truly global social and environmental issue with vast international effects, its
impacts vary at the regional, sectorial, community, household, and individual levels (Adger et al. 2004). In particular,
climate change could exacerbate the vulnerabilities and inequalities of resource-dependent industries or communities in
developing countries in the current and coming decades (Lioubimtseva 2015). Since the livelihood of resource-dependent
communities in developing countries depends on climate and weather and they lack resources and adaptive infrastructure,
they have to live and adapt to varied uncertainties and risks (Morton 2007). Accordingly, to minimize the unexpected
effects of climate change, mitigation and adaptation are necessary for agricultural practitioners. Adaptation to climate
change is defined as a series of actions taken in the decision-making process that maintain the ability to respond to current
or future predicted changes (Nelson et al. 2010). Adaptation strategies can simultaneously bring challenges and
opportunities to human society (Cooper et al. 2008). However, adaptation is a complex process that occurs on different
scales ranging from the individual to regional and global settings. Although a large number of empirical studies have
explored natural and socio-economic factors, such as population, economy, and geography, that affect rural households'
adaptation to climate change (Below et al. 2012; Bryant et al. 2000), the adaptation mechanism of farmers to climate change
remains unclear. Furthermore, planned adaptive behaviour may not be achieved, and high adaptability may not
automatically be transformed to successful adaptation since individuals and groups often face a series of obstacles, such as
insufficient funding and institutional capacities, inadequate technological know-how, and diverse natural disasters, that
both restrict adaptation actions and reduce adaptive capacity (Wheeler et al. 2013; Pandey et al. 2018a). These restrictive
factors not only restrict the ability of individuals and groups to identify, assess and manage climate change risks but also
reduce their adaptation efficiency, delay adaptation opportunities, increase adaptation costs, and inhibit the formulation
and implementation of adaptation policies (Moser and Ekstrom 2010; Biesbroek et al. 2014; Islam et al. 2014). Currently,
there is still limited understanding of the complex, forward-looking and site-specific characteristics of adaptation processes
in an extensive socio-economic context (Below et al. 2012).
Adaptation is not a purely rational technological process but a highly subjective process embedded in a valuable
orientation in a certain social-economic context (Slovic et al. 1982; Grothmann and Patt 2005). Strengthening the exchange

icshge.org
of information on climate risks between farmers and politicians, as well as coordinating adaptation measures in the private
and public sectors, is critical to the successful adaptation of the agricultural sector (Patt and Schröter 2008). Therefore, as
the basis for understanding humanistic responses to stress and risk, public perception, which has been defined as the process
by which the public interprets and organizes sensation to produce a meaningful experience of the world (Ndamani and
Watanabe 2015), provides a new perspective for understanding the process and mechanisms of adaptation to climate change
and is receiving increasing attention (Wardekker et al. 2009). Considerable research has been devoted to specifically
examining farmer’s perspectives and responses to climate change (Tucker et al. 2010; Park et al. 2012) as well as their
likeliness to adopt mitigation and adaptation initiatives and support adaptation policies in the future (Niles et al. 2013).
Insights from such studies are crucial for identifying vulnerable entities and developing well-targeted future adaptation
policies (Below et al. 2012; Smit and Wandel, 2006) since passivity and ignorance could mean a lack of response to or
rejection of these challenges, which may lead to various dilemmas, such as ailment, poverty, displacement and death
(Agrawal 2010). However, individual perceptions of climate change are not always consistent with reality, and climatic
events or trends may be misinterpreted or wrongly remembered for a variety of reasons (Howe and Leiserowitz, 2013).
Such discrepancies may influence people’s risk perceptions, adaptive actions, and the degree of policy support. Therefore,
supporting data on perceptions with observed trends in hydro-climatic data establishes the legitimacy of what people have
perceived (Manandhar et al. 2012).
Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to obtain a better understanding of farmers’ perceptions of historical climate
change and its impacts in their grassland ecosystem and how perceptions are related to observed trends in regional climate,
especially drought, since grassland is most sensitive to drought compared with other land use types (Zhang et al. 2017). In
addition, we aim to clarify farmers' responses to climate change and analyse the effects of socioeconomic factors, as well
as identify action barriers in adaptation processes. Such an understanding of these issues will assist in the generation of
policy options for consideration by the authorities in the Hulunbeier grassland and the development of better reinforcement
and sustainable adaptation strategies.
II. MATERIAL AND METHODS

A. Study area description
The study area for this research is the Hulunbeier grassland (Figure 1), which lies in the north-eastern part of China's
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and is a vast land area of approximately 83,350 km 2 with a small population of
273,034. The grassland’s elevation ranges from 650 m to 700 m above sea level. Importantly, there are many nationalities
in this region, with as many as 25 ethnic minorities; among them, the populations of Mongolian, Daur, and Ewenki are
dominant. Households in this setting are sparsely distributed. In our study, most of the rural households have engaged in
grazing for generations and supplement their incomes from secondary activities such as wage labour, work outside the
commune, tourism-related work and operation of small grocery stores.
The region has a temperate continental monsoon climate, with a mean annual temperature of 0 ℃. The mean annual
rainfall in the district ranges from 250 mm to 350 mm, with over 80% of the precipitation falling in the monsoon period
(July–September). The rivers in this area are densely distributed, with a drainage density of 0.15–0.35 km/km2. The
vegetation types in this area are complex and diverse, with approximately 1,000 species of grassland plants, dominated by
perennial herbs. Moreover, the Hulunbeier grassland is considered as an important ecological functional zone for
windbreaks, sand fixation, and water conservation in northern China. Preservation of the grassland is seen as instrumental
in the preservation of both the rural social fabric and physical landscape. However, since the 1980s, due to the
superimposition of climate change effects, such as the frequency of drought, and human activities, such as overgrazing, the
grasslands have gradually degraded to a simpler community structure with reduced species diversity, intensified
desertification, and increased pests and diseases.
B. Sampling and data collection
To assess the how farmer perceptions of climate change relate to historical climate trends, we downloaded and
analysed data from four weather stations on monthly precipitation and monthly mean temperatures for 1960–2017 from
the China Meteorological Data Service Center (available at: http://data.cma.cn/en). These official datasets underwent basic
data checks for quality control. Suspect data were flagged and excluded from further analyses. From the raw monthly data
at each station, we calculated total annual precipitation, seasonal average temperatures and interannual and seasonal
drought indices. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test is widely used for trend analysis of hydroclimatic time series trends
(Smadi and Zghoul 2006) and was applied to the data. The trend-line slope is always related to the direction and the
magnitude of the trend.

icshge.org
Figure 1. The Hulunbeier grassland.
Then, we collected statistical data on resources, the environment, society, and the economy from the county
departments. Next, data were drawn from face-to-face interviews with household heads and participatory observations in
July–September 2017. After a pre-survey in a small pilot study, we revised the questionnaire to ensure that the final version
was understandable, credible and relevant. The questionnaire consisted of (1) a household socio-economic profile; (2)
perception of climate change, drought trends and their impact; and (3) farm-related responses to climate change and barriers
in the process of adaptation. Then, we selected respondents using a random sampling method based on socio-ethnic
settlement and accessibility. A maximum of four households were interviewed from each selected village due to the sparse
population and the fact that their living conditions were more or less similar throughout the study areas. To ensure accuracy
of information gathered in the interviews, three Mongolian college students were recruited as language interpreters during
the course of the survey. Each household interview lasted one to two hours. As a result, we interviewed 68 households
from 20 villages, and 68 valid questionnaires were collected. Table 1 presents the socioeconomic profile of the respondents.
TABLE I
PROFILE OF RESPONDENTS (N = 68)
Characteristics Mean Standard deviation
Household size 3.51 1.23
Age of household head (years) 46.33 14.25
Highest level of education (years) 10.84 3.52
Per capita income (yuan/year) 14,253 12,038
(as of July 2017, 1 US$=6.73 yuan)
C. Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)

The increasing frequency of droughts directly influences local agriculture and pasture production in the Mongolian
Steppe (Shinoda et al. 2010), accelerates desertification, and induces severe dust storms (Schubert et al. 2004). The use of
a drought index is the basis and core of drought monitoring. To assess the frequency, duration, severity and spatial extent
of droughts, hundreds of drought indices have been developed (Zargar et al. 2011). Since drought indicators are established
for a specific space-time range with corresponding scales (Li and Li 2017), a general consensus has not been reached on
which drought index can adequately characterize drought conditions. However, some drought indices are more popular,
such as the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPI (McKee et al. 1993), the Palmer drought index, PDSI
(Palmer 1965), and the SPEI (Vicente-Serrano et al. 2010). Of these, the SPEI is a widely used index that combines the
sensitivity of the PDSI to changes in evaporation demand with the simplicity of calculation and the multitemporal nature
of the SPI. The SPEI is a site-specific drought indicator that quantifies deviations from the average water balance

icshge.org
(precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) and has various time scales (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010). Some scholars
have evaluated the spatial and temporal patterns of drought in Northwest, Southwest, Northeast, Central and North China
based on the SPEI, and the results have been well verified.
The SPEI is normalized by the cumulative probability of the difference between the precipitation and potential
evapotranspiration. First, potential evapotranspiration was calculated using the Thornthwaite method; then, the monthly
precipitation and evapotranspiration differences were calculated, and the cumulative sequence of moisture gains and losses
at different time scales was established. Because there may be negative values in the original data sequence, the cumulative
probability density was normalized using a 3-parameter log-logistic probability distribution, and the SPEI value was finally
calculated. For detailed calculation methods, see Vicente-Serrano et al. (2010). The average value of SPEI is 0, and the
standard deviation is 1. In addition, to reflect the details and general characteristics of droughts in the study area, this paper
analysed drought conditions on both annual and seasonal scales. We also classified drought grades according to Vicente-
Serrano et al. (2010) (Table 2).
TABLE II
CLASSIFICATION SCALES OF METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT FOR SPEI
Drought level Categories SPEI
1 Near normal -1.0<SPEI
2 Moderate dryness -1.5<SPEI≤-1.0
3 Severe dryness -2.0<SPEI≤-1.5
4 Extreme dryness SPEI≤-2.0
D. Analysis model of factors that influence climate change adaptation strategies

1) Adaptation strategy categories
To clearly portray farmers' adaptation strategies to climate change, this study draws on Wheeler et al. (2013), dividing
farmers’ adaptation measures into three categories: (a) expansive: measures designed to increase efforts and production,
such as buying fodder, renting grassland, and increasing irrigation/drilling wells; (b) accommodating: measures that seek
to accommodate change by adopting more efficient infrastructure and changing the crop mix, such as use of artificial grass,
barn feeding, delayed grazing/rotational grazing, and improved livestock breeds; and (c) contractive: measures that involve
a reduction in effort and resource ownership, such as reduction of livestock, grazing/rotation, and migration.
In addition, the number of types of adaptation measures adopted by each household was considered as an adaptation
strategy diversity index, for which 1 was assigned for each adaptation measure taken by a household. If a household adopts
“purchase fodder” and “reduce livestock” adaptation measures, its adaptation strategy diversity index is 2.
2) Empirical Modelling
Currently, multinomial logit (MNL) models are often used to analyse factors that influence farmers’ adaptation choice
(Deressa et al. 2009); however, a major limitation of MNL models is the assumption that practices are mutually exclusive,
which disregards that fact that a single household can use multiple strategies simultaneously (Shah et al. 2017). In this
study, a binary logistic regression method was used to analyse the factors influencing the selection of farm-household
climate change adaptation strategies because our dependent variable is dichotomous and has only two values. Meanwhile,
a maximum likelihood method was used to estimate the regression parameters. The basic assumption was that farmers’
adaptation depends on socio-economic household characteristics, accessibility of various public resources and their
perception of climate changes. The explanatory variables were identified by means of a literature review and through focus
group discussions.
A binary variable (Y) consisting of two codes (0 or 1) is used to represent each farmer’s decision, where 0 denotes
that an adaptation strategy has not been selected, and 1 denotes that an adaptation strategy has been selected. We
hypothesized that Xi is an independent variable and Pi is the probability of choosing adaptive strategy Yi, and the regression
model (Eq. 1) is:
𝑃𝑖 = 𝐸𝑥𝑝(𝛽0 + 𝛽1 𝑥𝑖1 + ⋯ + 𝛽𝑚 𝑥𝑖𝑚 )/[1 + 𝐸𝑥𝑝(𝛽0 + 𝛽1 𝑥𝑖1 + ⋯ + 𝛽𝑚 𝑥𝑖𝑚 )] (1)
where β0 is a constant and β1, β2, ... , βm are regression coefficients that represent the contribution of 𝑥𝑖𝑚 to 𝑃𝑖 .
3) Variable analysis
To ensure the design of sound policies that minimize unintended consequences, it is important to understand the
influences underlying household adaptation choices at the micro level. The factors that influence the choice of adaptation
strategies have been extensively studied and discussed in the academic literature, the popular press, and policy circles.
Deressa et al. (2009) noted that gender, age, education level, family size, climate information and social capital influence
the choice of adaptation measures. Bryan et al. (2009) found that the factors influencing farmers' choices include the
farmer's agricultural experience, socio-economic status and availability of technology extension services and credit
services. Grothmann and Patt (2005) suggested that climate change perception is a key factor affecting farmers’ selection
of adaptation measures. In addition, in the rural livelihood framework developed by Ellis (2000), the livelihood capital

icshge.org
(natural, human, physical, social and financial) owned by rural households and external trends and shocks (such as climate
change) determined how farmers chose their livelihood strategies. Based on previous research, this study used a set of
explanatory variables, including different dimensions of climate change perception, demographic characteristics,
livelihood capital and location capital (Table 3), to analyse factors that influenced the farmer's selection of adaptation
strategies. An exploratory factor analysis was conducted to address problems of multicollinearity (Field 2009). In addition,
explanatory variables were filtered through a correlation analysis to ensure the absence of latent variables related to
adaptation.
III. RESULTS
E. Climatic trends of weather parameters

Figure 2 shows a warming trend in the Hulunbeier grassland, with an average annual temperature increase of +0.03
℃, significant at the 99% confidence level, and an overall average annual temperature of -0.06 °C. In addition, the average
annual precipitation is 286.66 mm, and the time series for the total yearly precipitation shows a negative trend, which was
found to be not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.
Figure 2. Trend of annual average precipitation and temperature in Hulunbeier Grassland from 1960 to 2017.
However, there are significant differences in the interannual variations of seasonal temperature and precipitation
(Figure 3). Among the seasons, summer rainfall accounted for 70.72% of the annual rainfall, and winter rainfall accounted
for the smallest portion of the annual rainfall (2.73%). Importantly, summer precipitation showed a gradual decreasing
trend over the past 58 years that was not found to be statistically significant at the 99% confidence level, while the other
three seasons showed an increasing trend in precipitation. Further, winter rainfall showed a positive, statistically significant
increase of +0.13 mm per annum. In addition, the interannual temperature changes in spring, summer and autumn all
showed statistically significant positive trends at the 99% confidence level, of which the rate of increase in spring
temperatures was the highest at 0.05 °C per annum, followed by the summer at 0.04 °C per annum.

icshge.org
TABLE III
VARIABLES HYPOTHESIZED TO INFLUENCE FARMERS’ ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE HULUNBEIER GRASSLAND
ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5
Variable Code Expected relationship Mean SD Source
with adaptation
Climate change perception positive
Temperature Temperature volatility over the past 20 years. 0.544 0.308 Adapted from Hahn et al. (2009);
0.00 = almost no change; 0.50 = small fluctuations; 1.00 = large fluctuations Below et al. (2012); Pandey & Jha
(2012)
Precipitation Precipitation volatility over the past 20 years. 0.838 0.279 Adapted from Hahn et al. (2009);
0.00 = almost no change; 0.50 = small fluctuations; 1.00 = large fluctuations Below et al. (2012); Pandey & Jha
Drought Change in the frequency of drought disasters over the past 20 years. 0.732 0.238 Adapted from Hahn et al. (2009);
0.00 = obvious decrease; 0.25 = decrease; 0.50 = no change; 0.75 = increase; 1.00 = obvious Below et al. (2012)
increase
Demographic characteristics either positive or negative
Head age Age of householder (years) 46.22 14.06 Shah et al. (2017)
Head gender 0.00 = Female; 1.00 = Male 0.618 0.490 Below et al. (2012)
Head education level 0.00 = illiterate; 0.25 = primary school; 0.50 = middle school; 0.75 = secondary school; 1.00 0.522 0.258 Below et al. (2012)
= college or more
Human capital positive
Household size Number of household members 3.515 1.178 Below et al. (2012)
Dependency ratio Ratio of productive versus total household members 0.804 0.30 Below et al. (2012)
Natural capital positive
Meadowland Per capita area of meadowland/km2 312 857 Moser (1998)
Grassland quality 0.00 = extreme degradation; 0.25 = severe degradation; 0.50= moderate degradation; 0.75 = 0.118 0.222 Developed for the purposes of this
220
mild degradation; 1.00= no degradation questionnaire
Financial capital positive
Income per capita Annual per capita cash income/ yuan 14,532 12,636 Below et al. (2012)
Credit availability 0.00 = unavailable; 1.00 = available 0.496 0.316 Below et al. (2012)
Physical capital positive
Number of livestock 1.00 = sheep; 6.00= horse; 5.00= cattle 356 1273 Developed for the purposes of this
questionnaire
Household fixed capital The proportion of items (including production and home appliances) owned and possessed 0.453 0.170 Below et al. (2012); Pandey & Jha
according to the listed items, including household electrical appliances, agricultural (2012)
equipment, and vehicles
Housing conditions Total score = Housing area × housing material 71.99 34.15 Developed for the purposes of this
(a) housing material: 1.00 = concrete; 0.75 = brick; 0.50 = wood; 0.25 = tent; 0.00 = thatched questionnaire
cottage
(b) Total household living area
Social capital positive
Number of close relatives/friends 0.00 = none; 0.25 = some but not enough; 0.50 = just enough; 0.75 = more than enough; 1.00 0.699 0.301 Moser (1998); Pandey & Jha (2012)
= a great many
Communication costs Average monthly mobile phone/Internet access charges/ yuan 117.2 145.2 Developed for the purposes of this
questionnaire
Location capital positive
Distance to market 0.00= 50 km or greater; 0.25= 30-50 km; 0.50= 15-30 km; 0.75= 5-15 km; 1.00= 0-5 km 0.331 0.236 Below et al. (2012); Arunrat et al.
(2017).
icshge.org
©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.
Figure 3. Trend of seasonal precipitation and temperature in Hulunbeier Grassland from 1960 to 2017.
Figure 4 shows the interannual variation of the average SPEI index for the Hulunbeier grassland and the associated Mann-
Kendall (M-K) test curve. The SPEI index on the annual scale showed a significant downward trend from 1960 to 2017, with
a linear trend rate of -0.218·10a-1 at the 99% confidence level, indicating that the Hulunbeier grassland has gradually become
drier over the last 58 years. Importantly, the SPEI index in 2001 was the lowest in the last 58 years at -2.88, which denotes
that 2001 was the driest year. The UF curve showed that the average annual SPEI indices from 1960 to 2017 first declined,
then rose and then decreased. Especially after 2004, the UF curve fell below the confidence level of 0.05, indicating that the
SPEI index had a significant downward trend. Moreover, the UF and UB curves intersected in 1998 in the middle of the
confidence interval, implying that 1998 was the beginning of the SPEI index mutation and that droughts in the Hulunbeier
grassland began a trend of intensification in 1998.
Figure 4. Interannual variation and Mann-Kendall test of average SPEI in Hulunbeier Grassland for 1960—2017 (Solid line and dashed line are UF line and
UB line respectively. Horizontal line is 0.05 significance line.).
According to the SPEI index evaluation scale in Table 1, we calculated the monthly SPEI index of the four stations from
1960 to 2017 and obtained the percentage of drought occurrence in each decade and the total frequency of drought occurrence
by season (Figure 5). Figure 5 shows that the incidence of different grades of droughts has increased from the 1960s to 2017,

icshge.org
with the highest incidence for moderate dryness, followed by severe dryness. In addition, from the 1960s through the 1990s,
the incidence of moderate dryness was between 74.16% and 78.87% in each decade, but in the first 18 years of the 21st century,
the incidence of moderate dryness fell to 55.05% while the incidence of severe and extreme dryness increased significantly.
For example, the incidence of extreme dryness in 2000-2017 was 12.96%, which was significantly higher than that in the
preceding decades. Additionally, the incidence of severe dryness was 32.41%, which was 4 times that in the 1970s.
Figure 5. Incidence and frequency of drought in different decades and four seasons in Hulunbeier Grassland from1960 to 2017.
As far as the frequencies of droughts in different seasons are concerned, in the past 58 years, the frequency of droughts
was highest in the summer (123), followed by winter (120), spring (116) and autumn (112). From the distribution of drought
levels among the four seasons, it can be seen that winter had the highest frequency of moderate dryness (75), summer the most
severe dryness (45), and autumn the most extreme dryness (21).
F. Farmers' perception of climate variability and its impacts
Although researchers never explicitly mentioned the concept of “climate change,” almost all the respondents in
Hulunbeier were aware of climate change issues through the effects of year-by-year temperatures, precipitation, and especially
drought on their activities and grassland productivity. Further, the farmers had relatively little variation in their climate
perceptions (Figure 6), although these perceptions were not systematically consistent with the direction and significance of
climate trends calculated from the observational records, such as for precipitation change.
Figure 6. Farmer perceptions of historical climate change for temperature, precipitation and drought.
Specifically, the largest group of farmers (72.06%) believed that over the last 20 years, temperatures had increased over
time, 14.71% believed there were no changes, and 13.23% believed that temperatures had decreased. Moreover, during our
face-to-face interviews with farmers, they stated that they felt increasingly warmer temperatures in spring, and they observed
that the return of green pastures had significantly advanced. These perceptions are consistent with the measured temperature
changes. However, for annual and seasonal rainfall, the largest group of farmers (86.77%) felt that precipitation had decreased,
while the remaining proportion perceived either an increase or no change in precipitation. In particular, they also noted that
the frequency of extreme precipitation has increased significantly, with particular emphasis on frequent winter snowstorms.
However, this is inconsistent with the historical measurements of precipitation. The deviation of perceptions from
measurements may be due to differences between meteorological drought and biological drought. Meteorological drought is

icshge.org
measured by the amount of precipitation that is scientifically monitored. Biological drought is judged by the amount of water
that can be obtained when pastures need water. For example, the rainfall in the growing season for forage grasses decreased
and the frequency of ineffective rainfall, such as flooding increased, leading to the occurrence of biological drought and
reduced growth of forage grasses, which explains the farmers’ perception that rainfall was reduced.
In addition, on both the annual and seasonal scales, the farmers' perception of the occurrence of drought was relatively
accurate. The vast majority of farmers (87.69%) felt that over the past 20 years, the frequency of drought had increased,
especially in the spring, which was supported by the statistically significant trend of the increased incidence of droughts.
Further, the famers clearly expressed the details of droughts that occurred in the past. In particular, their recollections are still
fresh about the droughts that have occurred since the millennium, and they noted that the frequency and severity of droughts
have increased in the last 20 years, which has many negative impacts on farmers who rely on grassland resources for their
livelihoods.
Our survey results showed that 82.35% of the farmers interviewed stated that their productivity has worsened with time
principally because of increased climate stress on their pastures and livestock. In particular, 77.94% of the farmers attributed
grassland degradation to climate changes, followed by human activities such as overgrazing. Additionally, 41.18% and 32.35%
of respondents, respectively, felt that there was a serious shortage of water resources and an increase in the severity of grassland
pests and diseases.
G. Household-level adaptation strategies and barriers
Farmers who were aware of climate change were then asked about their common adaptation strategies and individual
exploration practices. According to our survey results, the average adaptation strategy diversity index was 3, implying that
farmers in the Hulunbeier grassland often take multiple measures simultaneously to adapt to climate change. Furthermore, as
reported in Table 4, “reduce livestock” is the most common adopted strategy for farmers (70.59%), followed by “purchase
fodder” (67.65%) and “stop grazing” (52.94%) while the least common adaptation strategies were “improve livestock” and
“barn feeding”, with proportions of 5.88% and 8.82% respectively. A total of 7.35% of the respondents did not use any
adaptation strategies. The most common strategy of reductions in livestock as an adaptation method could be associated with
the poor economic efficiency in animal husbandry, while the limited use of “improve livestock” and “barn feeding” could be
attributed to the need for more capital and technology.
TABLE IV
FARMERS’ ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE HULUNBEIER GRASSLAND (N=68)
Adaptation strategy Frequency Proportion
Expansive Purchase fodder 46 67.65 %
Rent pasture 7 10.29 %
Increase irrigation 11 16.18 %
Accommodating Artificial grass 7 10.29 %
Change the composition of livestock 19 27.94 %
Improve livestock 4 5.88 %
Barn feeding 6 8.82 %
Contractive Reduce livestock 48 70.59 %
Rotational grazing 20 29.41 %
Stop grazing 36 52.94 %
Regarding the types of adaptation strategies adopted by farmers, most households adopted contractive adaptation
strategies (50.98%), followed by expansive adaptation strategies (31.37%) and accommodating adaptation strategies (13.23%).
In addition, the results also revealed that 83.08% of the farmers adopted a combination of adaptation strategies, including
expansive + contractive, expansive + accommodating + contractive, expansive + contractive and accommodating +
contractive. Of these, the combination of adaptation strategies of expansive + accommodating + contractive was the most
popular among the farmers, followed by expansive + contractive, with proportions of 36.92% and 33.85%, respectively.
Although farmers in the Hulunbeier grassland use many strategies to cope with and adapt to climate change, a number of
limits and barriers, as reported in Table 5, may restrict people’s ability to address the negative impacts of climate change. This
study found that the most critical impediment to adaptation practices is “higher frequency and duration of drought” (87.69%),
which corresponded well with the computed SPEI trends, followed by “limited grassland size” (77.94%) and “lack of labour”
(51.47%). Other factors, such as low income and lack of access to credit (44.12%), lack of production techniques/knowledge
(42.65%) and limited access to agricultural markets (36.76%), were also regarded as serious issues.
TABLE V
LIMITS AND BARRIERS TO ADAPTATION OF GRAZING ACTIVITIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE HULUNBEIER GRASSLAND (N=68)
Frequency Proportion
Low income and lack of access to credit 30 44.12%
Limited grassland size 53 77.94%
Lack of production techniques/knowledge 29 42.65%

icshge.org
Higher frequency and duration of droughts 57 87.69%

Lack of labour 35 51.47%
Lack of production tools/facilities 14 20.59%
Lack of timely climate information 17 25%
Limited access to agricultural markets 25 36.76%
H. Factors affecting adaptation strategies to climate change

The study findings indicated that the local adaptations to climate change do not involve the adoption of all strategies; the
adaptation strategies of “purchase fodder”, “reduce livestock” and “stop grazing” were more readily considered in the context
of approaches people employ to address climate change. Therefore, we developed a model to explore these three strategies, as
shown in Table 6. In Table 6, the odds ratios represent the estimated change in the odds of strategy adoption caused by a one-
unit increase in the respective explanatory variable while holding all other variables fixed at their mean values. The overall fit
of the logit-specifications was good, with Nagelkerke’s R-square ranging between 0.27 and 0.69.
TABLE VI
RESULTS FROM THE LOGISTIC REGRESSION OF FARMERS’ ADOPTION OF STRATEGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Purchase fodder Reduce livestock Stop grazing
B Odds ratio B Odds ratio B Odds ratio
Head demographics 0.027 1.027 -0.236 0.790 0.708** 2.030
Climate change perception 0.306 1.358 0.072 1.075 -0.100 0.905
Human capital 0.055 1.056 -1.650** 0.192 -0.606** 0.545
Natural capital 0.664 1.942 41.623 1.193E+18 0.121 1.129
Financial capital 0.171 1.186 -0.004 0.996 -0.480 0.619
Physical capital 1.162** 3.197 1.424** 4.152 0.188 1.207
Social capital 0.407 1.502 -0.869 0.419 -0.650** 0.522
Location capital 1.561 4.765 5.475** 238.695 -0.320 0.726
Nagelkerke’s R Square 0.313 0.693 0.274
*, **, and *** represent statistical significance at the 10, 5, and 1% probability levels, respectively
The results indicated that only physical capital positively affected the probability of purchase fodder at the 0.05 level.
Indeed, farmers reported that droughts in the past 20 years have led to a sharp decline in grass production in the local grasslands,
which has led to a substantial reduction in animal husbandry. However, the construction of sheds and forage reserves played
an important role in mitigating disasters and protecting livestock. Coupled with the gradual improvement of local
infrastructure, sheds and forage reserves increased the ability to transport and store hay from distant sources. Therefore, some
herdsmen who have more livestock and production tools are more willing to purchase grass fodder to reduce the adverse effects
caused by climate changes. In addition, human capital, physical capital and location capital are shown as three components
that influence the farmers’ adaptation strategy of “reduce livestock”, in which the regression coefficient for human capital is
significantly negative at the 0.05 level, whereas both “physical capital” and “location capital” are significantly positive at the
0.05 level. This result indicates that the more human capital households have, the more reluctant they are to reduce livestock
to respond to climate change; in contrast, the more physical and location capital households have, the more likely they are to
adapt by reducing livestock. Our survey indicates that with the profound impact of local climate change on animal husbandry,
the livelihoods of rural households have become increasingly unsustainable, especially for larger households. Therefore, larger
households, in particular, adopt contractive adaptation strategies such as livestock reduction and discontinuation of grazing
and seek other non-agricultural activities to maintain their livelihoods. Importantly, households closer to the market are more
likely to obtain outside employment. Furthermore, the model shows that household head demographics, human capital and
social capital all affected the farm households' adaptation strategy of “stop grazing” at a significance level of 0.05, in which
the regression coefficient of household head demographics is negative, whereas both the human capital and social capital
regression coefficients are positive. According to our survey, the older heads of household, especially those with higher
education levels, have long relied on grassland resources for their livelihoods and have formed a wealth of experience and
means to adapt to climate risks. In addition, traditional social networks based on kinship and geography also play an important
role in promoting exchanges of climate change adaptation experience and risk sharing. Therefore, these farmers are more
reluctant to give up their grazing-based livelihood.
IV. DISCUSSION
Our results show that the Hulunbeier grassland is experiencing significant aridity, especially in summer, in the context of
a significant temperature increase and a slight decrease in precipitation. Simultaneously, the frequency of extreme dryness and
severe dryness has gradually increased in the 21st century. Under these conditions, plants regularly suffer from water stress
during some of the crop period, and thus, the productivity of the grassland ecosystem is reduced (Vicente-Serrano et al. 2012),
which in turn results in novel conditions that challenge the adaptability of local farmers who rely substantially on the grassland.

icshge.org
Here, distinct from previous studies, we linked farmers' perceptions with the SPEI index, and the results showed that farmers
have strong perceptions of drought changes and have relatively accurate judgements on drought trends over the past 20 years
in the Hulunbeier grassland, whereas their judgement on precipitation levels was seriously biased by biological drought
conditions. This is an understandable finding, as rainfall amount is less easily observed and perceived by human senses without
appropriate instruments. Further, farmers that have experienced production losses due to climate/weather impacts are more
likely to acutely perceive climate changes (Nguyen et al. 2016). In other words, farmers’ perceptions reflect local issues and
concerns based on the actual impacts of drought on their lives and livelihoods. What climate change means to farmers appears
to be a product of the contexts of where the climate change and responses to it occur (Devkota et al. 2017). In addition, the
results also indicate that drought seems to be more accurately perceived by farmers than temperature and precipitation. Future
analyses focusing on the relationship between drought measurements and farmers’ perceptions are recommended.
The continuous effects of climate change in the Hulunbeier grassland, especially the unprecedented drought frequency,
may be beyond farmers’ realms of experience and thus push many beyond their ability to cope or survive (Reid et al. 2009).
One of the ways communities can adjust to climate change is through adaptation (IPCC 2001). Effective adaptation strategies
can simultaneously mitigate or avoid the potential impacts of environmental changes and take advantage of development
opportunities. (Cooper et al. 2008). This study revealed that “purchase fodder”, “reduce livestock” and “stop grazing” are the
top three climate change adaptation strategies of the studied households. Importantly, a combination of adaptation strategies,
such as “expansion + contraction” and “expansion + adjustment + contraction”, are among the more popular approaches.
Similar findings were also reported by Comoé and Siegrist (2015), who found that farmers often simultaneously adopt more
than one strategy to adapt to climate change. However, limits and barriers to adaptation can prevent the development and
implementation of these strategies (Adger et al. 2007) as well as impede the successful adaptation of strategies with high
adaptive capacity (O’Brien et al. 2006). Jones and Boyd (2011) separate the limits and barriers to adaptation into natural limits,
human and informational barriers, and social barriers. Further, these limits and barriers may be interrelated and combine to
constrain adaptation. This study examined limits and barriers to adaptation at the regional scale and confirmed that farmers
simultaneously face a variety of obstacles to adaptation that arise from natural, economic, technological, social and formal
institutional barriers. These factors help explain the gap between the broadly recognized need for adaptation and the general
lack of actions (Wolf et al. 2010). Therefore, to overcome these barriers, a substantial effort is needed on multiple scales. This
effort can be collectively achieved by the government, private sectors, and the community through the development of strong
linkages and partnerships among these stakeholders (Pandey et al. 2018). According to UNDP (2007), a successful adaptation
plan should include effective planning information, climate change protection infrastructure, social risk management, poverty
reduction insurance, and disaster risk management systems.
The results of this study provide important location-specific insights into the determinants of adaptation choices.
Household adaptation choices were found to be determined by a variety of factors, such as regional climate stimuli or
geographic characteristics, social cultural and institutional factors, socioeconomic household characteristics, and farmers'
perceptions (Shah et al. 2017; Piya et al. 2013; Deressa et al. 2009; Bryan et al. 2009). Jakobsen (2013) argued that livelihood
capital is the foundation for understanding individual or household livelihood strategies and their ability to cope with
environmental risks, which was also confirmed by Zhang et al (2018). Our results support these previous studies with the
finding that the household head demographics, household human capital, physical capital, social capital and location capital
affect the choice of farmers' adaptation strategies. Specifically, in the case study area, male-headed households prefers to
purchase fodder for high productivity to maintain their desired well-being, which was also reported by Arunrat et al. (2017).
In addition, older or high education level heads of household may be better informed about local agriculture and its
environment and were thus better able to develop and implement adaptation strategies, which is supported by the study of
Arunrat et al. (2017). Further, a large household was found to reduce the likelihood of farmers choosing contraction-based
adaptation strategies, such as livestock reduction and discontinuation of grazing. One possible explanation is that a large family
size is usually associated with higher labour endowments, which enables households to transfer some labour to non-agricultural
industries to increase household income and well-being while continuing agricultural activities. This partially confirms the
finding of Wheeler et al. (2013). We also found that households with more physical capital were more willing to adapt to
climate change by purchasing fodder and reducing livestock, which were considered by the farmers to simultaneously maintain
livestock productivity and reduce the adverse effects of climate change. In addition, the results of our study revealed that social
capital and location capital were significant determinants of choosing adaptation strategies, as was revealed by Wang et al.
(2014) and Arunrat et al. (2017). They recognize that households with rich social capital are more likely to have access to
diverse information and assistance, thus providing them with more opportunities for further action. Further, strong social ties
could hasten disaster responses and adaptive capacity (Nelson et al. 2010). Meanwhile, social ties play a key role in the design
and promotion of the process of governing and regulating the access and rights to key assets and the capital needed for climate
change adaptation (Kalafatis et al. 2015). Therefore, households with higher social capital have a greater likelihood of adapting
measures other than grazing cessation. In addition, our results confirmed that the closer a farm is to the market, the more likely
the household is to choose a contraction strategy with livestock reduction to adapt to climate change, as households with more
location capital have a higher probability of acquiring non-agricultural employment opportunities and better services from
development agencies. In contrast, households far from a road are more likely to adopt traditional adaptation measures. These
results agree with the findings of Below et al. (2012) and (Piya et al. 2013).
Unexpectedly, the farmers' climate change perceptions did not significantly affect their choice of adaptation strategies.
This is inconsistent with many previous studies (Arunrat et al. 2017; Grothmann and Patt 2005; Piya et al. 2013). Possible

icshge.org
explanations are related to the limited indicators used in this study to assess the climate change perceptions of farmers and the
limited sample size. According to Grothmann and Patt (2005), individuals’ perceptions of climate change can be decomposed
into risk perception, including perceived probability and perceived severity, and adaptive perception, including perceived
adaptation efficacy, perceived self-efficacy and perceived adaptation costs. In addition, we only explored the factors
influencing the choices of the top three adaptation strategies by the households. Hence, analysis of the selection mechanism of
climate change adaptation strategies for rural households needs to further consider the farmers' perception of climate change,
especially their perception of adaptation. Meanwhile, additional adaptation strategies also need to be analysed. In addition, the
evaluation of farmer's climate change adaptation strategies needs to be strengthened in future research because only by
analysing the pros and cons of current or possible climate change adaptation behaviour can we formulate adaptation strategies
more scientifically, such as with multi-criteria decision analysis (Michailidou et al. 2016) and the technique for order
preference by similarity to an ideal solution, TOPSIS (Brouziyne et al. 2018). Such methods can assess the feasibility and
effectiveness of adaptation strategies and determine the priority of adaptation strategies.
V. CONCLUSION
The fact that climate change can simultaneously bring challenges and opportunities to human society is increasingly
recognized. Adaptation to these changes is being placed higher on the international agenda, with a focus on rural and
marginalized communities in developing countries (Jones and Boyd 2011). To narrow the gap between research, policy making
and adaptation implementation, this study analysed farmers’ perceptions of historical local climate change and its impacts and
associations with measured climate change and a calculated drought index. Meanwhile, we identified farmers’ responses to
climate change and analysed the effects of socioeconomic factors as well as barriers on the adoption of adaptation strategies.
The results showed that climate change is expected to result in more frequent drought, increased temperature and uncertain
precipitation in the Hulunbeier grassland. These effects are likely to have an impact on Hulunbeier’s economy by causing
sizeable losses to livelihoods in multiple dimensions. Our research revealed that farmers perceived a number of adverse effects,
including grassland degradation, land desertification, shortage of water resources, reduced animal husbandry, and increased
livestock diseases. Meanwhile, we also found that farmers have relatively strong and accurate perceptions of local changes in
climatic conditions, except for changes in rainfall. Future analysis focusing on the relationship between drought measurements
and farmers’ perceptions is recommended.
Moreover, to adapt to climate change, most of the farmers adopted strategies from multiple categories, with the most
common combinations being “expansive + accommodating + contractive” or “expansive + contractive”. In general, farmers
simultaneously implemented three of ten climate change adaptation strategies. Of these, “reduce livestock”, “purchase fodder”
and “stop grazing” were the three most popular adaptation strategies. Research on climate change adaptation strategy
evaluation needs to be strengthened in the future. In addition, farmers identified several barriers that affected adaptation
practices, including higher frequency and duration of droughts, limited grassland area, inadequate labour, an absence of credit,
a lack of production techniques/knowledge, and limited access to agricultural markets. Given the interrelated nature and
combined influence of many barriers, overcoming them is complex and requires adaptation planning strategies at multiple
scales (Pandey et al. 2018b).
To shed light on the factors that enhance or limit household actions to adapt to climate uncertainties, a binary logistic
regression model was used to analyse three adaptation choices against a set of head demographics, household capital, location
capital, and climate change perception variables. The results show that household head demographics, human capital, physical
capital, social capital and location capital significantly influenced the choice of adaptation strategies. These results may
indicate that the adaptive capacity of local households needs to be enhanced through skill development training, incentives,
and support from farmer cooperative organizations, the private sector, the government, and NGOs. These development
assistance and extension services can help the households to diversify their livelihood and provide more opportunities to
participate in non-agricultural work, especially for households in areas that are far from markets and roads.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The study was jointly funded by the National Key R＆D Program of China (Grant No.2016YFC0500608-3) and the State Key
Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (Grant No. 2017-KF-20).
REFERENCES
Adger WN, Agrawala S, Mirza MMQ, Conde C, O’Brien K, Pulhin J, et al. (2007). Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity.
In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE, editors. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press; 2007. pp. 717–743.
Adger WN, Brooks N, Bentham G, Agnew M, Ereksen S (2004) New indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity, vol 7. Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change Research, Norwich.
Agrawal A, 2010. Local Institutions and Adaptation to Climate Change. Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Equity and Vulnerability in a Warming
World. World Bank, Washington DC, pp. 173-198.
Arunrat N, Wang C, Pumijumnong N, Sereenonchai S, Cai W. (2017). Farmers' intention and decision to adapt to climate change: a case study in the yom
and nan basins, phichit province of Thailand. Journal of Cleaner Production, 143, 672-685. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.12.058
Below TB, Mutabazi KD, Kirschke D, Franke C, Sieber S, Siebert R, Tscherning K (2012) Can farmers’ adaptation to climate change be explained by
socio-economic household-level variables? Global Environmental Change, 22: 223–235. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.11.012

icshge.org
Biesbroek GR, Termeer CJAM, Klostermann JEM, Kabat P. (2014) Rethinking barriers to adaptation: Mechanism-based explanation of impasses in the
governance of an innovative adaptation measure. Global Environmental Change, 26: 108-118. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.004
Brouziyne Y, Abouabdillah A, Hirich A, Bouabid R, Zaaboul R, Benaabidate L (2018) Modeling sustainable adaptation strategies toward a climate-smart
agriculture in a mediterranean watershed under projected climate change scenarios. Agricultural Systems, 162: 154-163. doi:
10.1016/j.agsy.2018.01.024
Bryan E, Deressa TT, Gbetibouo GA, Ringler C (2009) Adaptation to climate change in Ethiopia and South Africa: Options and constraints. Environmental
Science & Policy, 12: 413-426. doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2008.11.002
Bryant CR, Smit B, Brklacich M, Johnston TR, Smithers J,Chiotti Q, Singh B (2000) Adaptation in Canadian agriculture to climatic variability and change.
Climatic Change, 45: 181–201. doi: 10.1023/A:1005653320241
Comoé H, Siegrist M (2015) Relevant drivers of farmers’ decision behavior regarding their adaptation to climate change: a case study of two regions in
Côte d’Ivoire. Mitigation & Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 20: 179-199. doi: 10.1007 / s11027-013-9486-7
Cooper PJM, Dimes J, Rao KPC, Shapiro B, Shiferaw B, Twomlow S (2008) Coping better with current climatic variability in the rain-fed farming systems
of sub-Saharan Africa: an essential first step in adapting to future climate change? Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment, 126: 24-35. doi:
10.1016/j.agee.2008.01.007
Dai A, Trenberth KE, Qian T (2004) A Global Dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870–2002: Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of
Surface Warming. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 5:1117-1130. doi: 10.1175/JHM-386.1
Deressa TT, Hassan RM, Ringler C, Alemu T, Yesuf M (2009) Determinants of farmers' choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin
of Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change, 19: 248-255. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.01.002
Devkota RP, Pandey VP, Bhattarai U, Shrestha H, Adhikari S, Dulal KN (2017) Climate change and adaptation strategies in Budhi Gandaki river basin,
Nepal: a perception-based analysis. Climatic Change, 140, 1-14. doi: 10.1007/s10584-016-1836-5
Ellis F (2000) Rural Livelihoods and Diversity in Developing Countries. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Field AP (2009) Discovering Statistics Using SPSS, 3rd ed. Sage, London.
Fu C, Ma Z (2008) Global Change and Regional Aridification. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 32(4):752-760.
Giannakopoulos C, Sager PL, Bindi M, Moriondo M, Kostopoulou E, Goodess CM (2009) Climatic changes and associated impacts in the Mediterranean
resulting from a 2°C global warming. Global & Planetary Change, 68(3):209-224. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.06.001
Grothmann T, Patt A (2005) Adaptive capacity and human cognition: The process of individual adaptation to climate change. Global Environmental
Change, 15: 199-213. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.01.002
Guo S. (2012) The Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment Based on the Diffusion Mechanism. Journal of Risk Analysis & Crisis Response, 2:124-130.
doi: 10.2991 / jracr.2012.2.2.5
Hahn MB, Riederer AM, Foster SO (2009) The livelihood vulnerability index: A pragmatic approach to assessing risks from climate variability and change:
A case study in Mozambique. Global Environmental Change 19: 74-88. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.11.002
Howe PD, Leiserowitz A (2013) Who remembers a hot summer or a cold winter? The asymmetric effect of beliefs about global warming on perceptions of
local climate conditions in the U.S. Global Environmental Change 23, 1488–1500. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.09.014
IPCC (2001) In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds.) Climate change 2001: The scientific
basis. Contribution of working group 1 to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge
IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, Fifth assessment report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, UK
Islam MM, Sallu S, Hubacek K, Paavola J (2014) Limits and barriers to adaptation to climate variability and change in Bangladeshi coastal fishing
communities. Marine Policy, 43: 208-216. doi: 10.1016/j.marpol.2013.06.007
Jakobsen K (2013) Livelihood asset maps: a multidimensional approach to measuring risk-management capacity and adaptation policy targeting—a case
study in Bhutan. Regional Environmental Change 13:219-233. doi: 10.1007/s10113-012-0320-7
Jones L, Boyd E (2011) Exploring social barriers to adaptation: insights from western Nepal. Global Environmental Change, 21: 1262-1274. doi:
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.06.002
Kalafatis SE, Lemos MC, Lo YJ, Frank KA (2015) Increasing information usability for climate adaptation: the role of knowledge networks and
communities of practice. Global Environmental Change, 32: 30-39. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.02.007
Li Y, Li Y (2017) Advances in Adaptability of Meteorological Drought Indices in China. Journal of Arid Meteorology (in Chinese), 35:709-723.
Lioubimtseva E (2015) A multi-scale assessment of human vulnerability to climate change in the Aral Sea basin. Environmental Earth Sciences, 73:719-
729. doi: 10.1007/s12665-014-3104-1
Ma Z, Fu C (2007) Global aridity in the second half of the 20th century and its connection with large-scale background. Science in China (Series D:Earth
Sciences) (in Chinese), 37(2):222-233.
Manandhar S, Pandey VP, Kazama F (2012) Hydro-climatic trends and people’s perceptions: case of Kali Gandaki River Basin, Nepal. Climate Research,
54:167–179. doi: 10.3354/cr01108
Mckee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Proceedings of the 8th conference on applied
climatology. Boston, MA, Am Meteorol Soc. 17:179–183.
Michailidou AV, Vlachokostas C, Moussiopoulos N (2016) Interactions between climate change and the tourism sector: multiple-criteria decision analysis
to assess mitigation and adaptation options in tourism areas. Tourism Management, 55: 1-12. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2016.01.010
Morton JF (2007) The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America, 104 (50): 19680-9685. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0701855104
Moser SC, Ekstrom JA (2010) A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the
United States of America, 107: 22026-22031. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1007887107
Moser CO (1998) The asset vulnerability framework: reassessing urban poverty reduction strategies. World Development. 26: 1–19. doi: 10.1016/S0305-
750X(97)10015-8
Ndamani F, Watanabe T (2015) Farmers ‘perception about adaptation practices to climate change and barriers to adaptation: a micro-level study in Ghana.
Water 7:4593–4604. doi: 10.3390/w7094593
Nelson R, Kokic P, Crimp S, Martin P, Meinke H, Howden SM, Voil P de, Nidumolu U (2010) The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate
variability and change: part II-integrating impacts with adaptive capacity. Environ. Sci. Pol. 13, 18-27. doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2009.09.007
Nguyen TPL, Seddaiu G, Virdis SGP, Tidore C, Pasqui M, Roggero PP (2016) Perceiving to learn or learning to perceive? understanding farmers'
perceptions and adaptation to climate uncertainties. Agricultural Systems, 143, 205-216. doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2016.01.001

icshge.org
Niles MT, Lubell M, Haden VR (2013) Perceptions and responses to climate policy risks among California farmers. Global Environmental Chang,
23:1752–1760. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.08.005
O'Brien K, Eriksen S, Sygna L, Naess LO (2006). Questioning complacency: climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway. AMBIO,
35(2), 50-56. doi: stable/4315686
Palmer WC (1965) Meteorological droughts. US Department of Commerce Weather Bureau Research Paper 45, 58.
Pandey R, Jha SK, Alatalo JM, Archie KM, Gupta AK (2017) Sustainable livelihood framework-based indicators for assessing climate change vulnerability
and adaptation for Himalayan communities. Ecological Indicators, 79, 338-346. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.03.047
Pandey R, Kumar P, Archie KM, Gupta AK, Joshi PK, Valente D, Petrosillo I (2018a). Climate change adaptation in the western-Himalayas: household
level perspectives on impacts and barriers. Ecological Indicators, 84: 27-37. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.08.021
Pandey R, Alatalo JM, Thapliyal K, Chauhan S, Archie KM, Gupta AK, Jha SK, Kumar M (2018b) Climate change vulnerability in urban slum
communities: Investigating household adaptation and decision-making capacity in the Indian Himalaya. Ecological Indicators, 90: 379-391. doi:
10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.03.031
Pandey R. Jha SK (2012) Climate vulnerability index - measure of climate change vulnerability to communities: a case of rural Lower Himalaya, India.
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 17:487-506. doi: 10.1007/s11027-011-9338-2
Park SE, Marshall NA, Jakku E, Dowd AM, Howden SM, Mendham E, Fleminge A (2012) Informing adaptation responses to climate change through
theories of transformation. Global Environmental Change, 22:115-126. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.003
Patt AG, Schröter D (2008) Perceptions of climate risk in Mozambique: implications for the success of adaptation strategies. Global Environmental Chang,
18:458–467. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.04.002
Petley D (2012) Global patterns of loss of life from landslides. Geology, 40: 927-930. doi: 10.1130/G33217.1
Piya L, Maharjan K, Joshi N (2013) Determinants of adaptation practices to climate change by Chepang households in the rural Mid-Hills of Nepal.
Regional Environmental Change, 13: 437–447. doi: 10.1007/s10113-012-0359-5
Reid H, Alam M, Berger R, Cannon T, Huq S, Milligan A (2009) Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview. Environment Science &
Policy for Sustainable Development, 51(4), 22-31.
Rodima-Taylor D, Olwig MF, Chhetri N (2012) Adaptation as innovation, innovation as adaptation: An institutional approach to climate change. Applied
Geography, 33: 107-118. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.10.011
Schubert SD, Suarez MJ, Pegion PJ, Koster RD, Bacmeister JT (2004) On the cause of the 1930s Dust Bowl. Science 303(5665):1855–1859. doi:
10.1126/science.1095048
Shah AA, Ye J, Abid M, Ullah R (2017) Determinants of flood risk mitigation strategies at household level: a case of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province,
Pakistan. Natural Hazards, 88: 415-430. doi: 10.1007/s11069-017-2872-9
Shinoda M, Nachinshonhor GU, Nemoto M (2010) Impact of drought on vegetation dynamics of the Mongolian steppe: a field experiment. Journal of Arid
Environments, 74:63–69. doi: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2009.07.004
Slovic P, Fischhoff B, Lichtenstein S (1982) Why study risk perception? Risk Analysis, 2:83–93. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01369.x
Smadi MM, Zghoul A (2006) A sudden change in rainfall characteristics in Amman, Jordan during the mid-1950s. American journal of environmental
sciences, 2: 84–91. doi: 10.3844/ajessp.2006.84.91
Smit B, Wandel J (2006) Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 16: 282–292. Doi:
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.008
Tucker CM, Eakin H, Castellanos EJ (2010) Perceptions of risk and adaptation: coffee producers, market shocks, and extreme weather in Central America
and Mexico. Global Environmental Change, 20: 23-32. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.07.006
UNDP (2007) Human development report 2007 / 2008 fight climate change: human solidary in a divided world. New York: United Nations Development
Programme.
Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, Lópezmoreno JI, Angulo M, Kenawy AE (2010) A New Global 0.5° Gridded Dataset (1901–2006) of a Multiscalar
Drought Index: Comparison with Current Drought Index Datasets Based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 11:
1033-1043. doi: 10.1175/2010JHM1224.1
Vicente-Serrano SM, Gouveia C, Camarero JJ, Beguería S, Trigo RM, López-Moreno JI, Azorin-Molina C, Pasho E, Lorenzo-Lacruz J, Revuelto J, Morán-
Tejeda E, Sanchez-Lorenzo A (2012) Response of vegetation to drought time-scales across global land biomes. Proceedings of the National Academy
of Sciences, 110: 52–57. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1207068110
Wang Y, Huang J, Wang J (2014) Household and community assets and farmers' adaptation to extreme weather event: the case of drought in China. Journal
of Integrative Agriculture. 13: 687-697. doi: 10.1016/S2095-3119(13)60697-8
Wardekker JA, Petersen AC, van der Sluijs JP (2009) Ethics and public perception of climate change: Exploring the Christian voices in the US public
debate. Global Environmental Change, 19: 512-521. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.07.008
Wheeler S, Zuo A, Bjornlund H (2013) Farmers’ climate change beliefs and adaptation strategies for a water scarce future in Australia. Global
Environmental Change, 23: 537-547. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.11.008
Wolf J, Adger WN, Lorenzoni I, Abrahamson V, Raine R (2010) Social capital, individual responses to heat waves and climate change adaptation: an
empirical study of two UK cities. Global Environmental Change, 20, 44-52. Doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.09.004
Zargar A, Sadiq R, Naser B, Khan FI (2011) A review of drought indices. Environmental Reviews, 19(1):333-349. doi: 10.1139/a11-013
Zhang Q, Kong DD, Singh VP, Shi PJ (2017) Response of vegetation to different time-scales drought across China: spatiotemporal patterns, causes and
implications. Global and Planetary Change, 152: 1-11. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.02.008
Zhang Q, Zhao XY & Tang HP (2018) Vulnerability of communities to climate change: application of the livelihood vulnerability index to an
environmentally sensitive region of China, Climate and Development, doi:10.1080/17565529.2018.1442808.

icshge.org
Shelterbelts planning in agricultural territories in Bulgaria

Shahanov, V.M.
University of Forestry, 10 Kliment Ohridsky Blvd., Sofia 1797, Bulgaria; veshaha@ abv.bg
Abstract—The first attempts to build wind protection belts on the territory of Bulgaria date back to the mid-20th century. Currently,
plantings are mature and perform to a great extent their function. In order to continue their positive role in the agricultural landscape, their
state should be revised, the current requirements for their planning reviewed, and the factors that have the greatest impact on their
sustainability should be analyzed. The unstable climate processes are one of the key parameters that change the growth conditions, setting
new requirements for these living technical facilities. The aim of the current study is to be explored the past experience and to be created
guidelines for planning shelterbelts in accordance with climate change and other modern trends. As a result are proposed areas for
construction of wind protection belts, types of the green system structure, optimal species composition.
Keywords—agricultural landscape, climate change, wind protection belts
I. INTRODUCTION
H ISTORICALLY, people have had a deeper understanding of nature both in terrestrial and cosmic sense. Through
"emancipating" from surrounding reality, men gradually loses his ability to see objective interrelationships and adapts to
an external knowledge [1], the truth of which requires additional evidence. Human activities are not accompanied by a
complete knowledge, by a preliminary idea of right and wrong. And the more the fields of knowledge differentiate, the more
the need for experiments on the principle of trial-error arises. With great power this also applies to land use. Economic and
political interests, planned activities that are inconsistent with basic natural conditions, improper treatment and inappropriate
measures – all result in consequences to which man needs to adapt. One of these problems in agriculture is deterioration of
growth conditions. Although not a complete solution, the use of protection belts made of plants in agricultural landscape has
a number of advantages – to improve microclimate, to partially return to a more natural state, to support and restore wildlife.
The use of wind protection belts (shelterbelts, windbreaks) has a few centuries of history. Their integrated use in
agriculture has been known since at least the 15th century, when the Scottish Parliament required construction of protection
belts for agricultural crops, as in [2] referred to Droze, 1977. In the 20th century there is a strong impetus for the application
of wind-protection plantings within the agricultural landscape both to the east and to the west. Two large-scale projects are
known. In the United States, thanks to Franklin Roosevelt, was created the Windbreak Belt Project, known as the 'Prairie
States Forestry Project'. It was developed between 1935 and 1942, after which it continues as the focus moved on soil
conservation [2]. In Russia according to water and wind erosion [3] it was developed the so-called 'Stalin's Nature
Transformation Plan' [4], in which protective forest plantings were of great importance. The construction of wind protection
belts in Bulgaria dates back to the mid-20th century. Under the influence of Russian experience, at relatively similar climatic
and soil conditions, inherent for the steppe nature zone, in Dobrudja were created several thousand hectares of shelterbelts,
Figure 1.
Figure 1. Wind protection belts system (fragment), General Toshevo Municipality, Dobrudja, Bulgaria (Image: www.google.bg/maps)
The aim of this paper is to create guidelines for wind protection belts planning within agricultural landscapes in Bulgaria,
in line with current trends in landscape field, and on the basis of previous experience in construction of protective barriers. In

icshge.org
order to achieve the goal, the following tasks are solved:

 a historical overview of creation of forest protection belts in Bulgaria was made;
 vulnerable landscape components related to the climate change and resulting problems in agricultural territories in
Bulgaria are analyzed;
 some new trends in European Union's land-use planning and policies in the field of agriculture and the sustainable
development are clarified;
 main features of protection belts are described, whose proper combination, according to particular circumstances and
desired effect, could have a significant practical benefit;
 specific solutions for construction of crop protection belts are proposed.
II. OVERVIEW OF AGRICULTURE IN BULGARIA AND HISTORY OF WINDBREAKS CONSTRUCTION

Along with the historical records about the dense and impassable Bulgarian forest, the chroniclers of the Crusades also
mention for development of agriculture and cattle breeding over Bulgarian lands on both sides of the Balkan Mountains [5].
This information leaves the impression of a diverse landscape, where along with forest areas there are also fertile arable lands.
The development of agricultural landscape in Bulgaria over the past few centuries has led to changes in the natural
territorial complexes. The anthropogenic influence found in some agricultural areas has led to instability of the environment,
which becomes entirely dependent on human activities [6]. The fragmentation of the landscape has led to the emergence of
new problems that require adequate landscape planning measures.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Forestry, the area of agricultural use by 2016 is 47 % of
the territory of the country. From this area, the arable land (such as areas included crop rotation, temporary meadows with
cereals and legumes, fallow and greenhouses) by 2016 is 69,3 % or 3,48 million ha. This means that the land that is cultivated
and needs improvement of growth conditions is approximately 1/3 of the country's territory.
The 2016 Annual report on the state and development of agriculture shows a decline in crop yields in some cereals (in
2015 compared to the previous 2014) and one of the reasons that is highlighted is the unfavorable weather conditions – floods,
frost, hail, drought. In the 2017 Report, it is found again that the yields and quality of agricultural produce are heavily dependent
on climatic conditions. For example, as a result of the drought in the summer of 2016, the harvested areas of maize are reduced
by 18,4 % and the dry and hot weather in September and October 2016 on the other hand speeds up the development of late
crops. Few rainfalls can be compensated by watering. Unfortunately, irrigated areas are only 818 000 ha as reported in 2016,
of which only 541 779 ha or 15,6 % of the arable land are eligible for irrigation and the percentage of real irrigated areas during
the year is below 1 %.
Plowing the land and reducing permanent crop coverage leads to a disruption of ecological stability and the resulting
processes lead to unnatural changes and instability in the environment. To master these processes the idea of creating
windbreak belts it comes. They are a good example of including tree vegetation in agricultural landscape. Afforestation, though
in narrow strips, has significant benefits: increasing carbon stock, restoring soil fertility, protecting against wind and water
erosion, increasing agricultural yields [7].
The benefits of windbreaks are multilateral as the research on the subject is mainly related to their positive impact on
agricultural activity. Fewer studies focus on non-agricultural benefits - increasing biodiversity, increasing the aesthetic
qualities of the landscape, providing recreational opportunities, harvesting timber, fruits and other products [8], [9], [10]. Along
with positive qualities it should be noted that the presence of tree vegetation on the arable land can lead to competition between
the protecting plants and the crops – shading, emission of substances, absorption of soil moisture [2].
As high-potential agricultural landscapes (planar territories with fertile soils) are located in the steppe areas of
southeastern Europe, where grass communities dominate, man-made planting of woody vegetation is not an easy task.
According to Isachenko, the forest plantation in steppe region is sustainable and lasting, when it is not displaced by the steppe
grassland [4]. This is a long-term activity, including correct selection of plant species and production of plant material
(collection of seeds from appropriate locations, adaptation of young plants to new conditions in their cultivation, etc.)
Wind protection belts and their benefits are related to the intense development of soil science. In the first half of the 20th
century, a strong impulse for this development was the deterioration of the Chernozems (Mollisols in USDA taxonomy) in
Eastern Europe [7]. Although the experience of the United States and Canada has been explored, the creation of windbreaks
in Bulgaria is mainly influenced by the practice in the former Soviet Union in similar climatic conditions [11]. The Stalin Plan
includes a large-scale construction of shelterbelts, Figure 2. The wind protection belts construction in Bulgaria is accompanied
by several books of research and a dissertation, developed and defended in 1957 by G. Georgiev on topic ‘Creation of forest
protection belts in Dobrudja’. After serious research, the author recommends construction of windbreaks in other non-irrigated
areas in Bulgaria [11].

icshge.org
Figure 2. 'Stalin's Nature Transformation Plan', Source [7].
Despite surveys showing many economic and environmental benefits of windbreaks, their construction is not a common
practice [12]. To a large extent this also applies to the territory of Bulgaria – a system of wind protection belts is built mainly
in the northeastern part of the country, Figure 3. According to data from the Forestry Executive Agency by 2014 in northern
Bulgaria there are more than 9 000 ha of forest protection belts. It is clear from other sources that the area of shelterbelts in
Dobrudja by 1957 is 9 000 ha and at present they are 6 500 ha, protecting nearly 300 000 ha of arable land [13]. Therefore, at
present, the agricultural territories with built-up windbreaks are only 8-9 %, as the belts themselves occupy only 2,2 % of the
protected area.
Figure 3. Wind protection belt in Dobrudja, Bulgaria (Photo: V. Shahanov).
III. AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPE AND CLIMATE CHANGE

The construction of wind protection tree belts is a long-term activity. They work well and fully when the vegetation
reaches a certain age and is in good health. For these reasons, their planning should be based not only on past experience. It is
necessary to take into account current and possible future processes and phenomena related to environmental, social and

icshge.org
economic factors. Substantial influence over recent decades has, for example, the climate change that affects every sphere of
life.
Although part of the arable land in Bulgaria in moderate latitudes is steppe, i.e. the prevailing natural vegetation is grassy,
climatic and soil conditions are found to be appropriate also for development of tree and shrub plantations [14]. Indeed, the
most important environmental factors for shelterbelts construction are climate and soils, and namely they, in their interaction,
undergo the most serious changes. This compromises favorable growth environment not only for agricultural crops, but also
for forest plantations and ornamental plants [15], [16]. In connection with the problems that some meteorological phenomena
create, models are developed to identify the adverse consequences. Soil erosion is the most serious cause of soil degradation
[17]. Rousseva and Stefanova suggest models for assessing rainfall erosivity and soil erodibility on the territory of Bulgaria.
Southwestern and southern Bulgaria have low degrees of rainfall erosivity. The rest of the country or 65 % of its territory falls
between the 4th and 6th grade on a 6-degree scale. By the second indicator – soil erodibility – again a large part of the country's
territory – 61,5 % – falls between 4th and 6th grade on a 6-degree scale. Parts of Dobrudja and Thracian lowland make
exceptions. These two indicators and their high values associated with water erosion indicate the need for additional measures
to increase environmental sustainability. Parts of these measures for agricultural landscapes are the windbreaks.
Climate change is an undeniable global problem. At national level, it affects all economic sectors. A number of strategic
documents are developed by the Ministry of Environment and Water and are the following:
1. National action plan on climate change;
2. National climate change risk and vulnerability assessment for the sectors of the Bulgarian economy;
3. Financial disaster risk management and insurance options for climate change adaptation in Bulgaria;
4. The Climate change mitigation Act, in force since 11.03.2014.
As a result of the objectives set in these documents and the introduction of relevant measures, greenhouse gas emissions
are expected to be reduced. Several measures in the National action plan on climate change are related to increasing forest
cover in agricultural landscapes. They are in the ‘Land use, land use change and forestry’ sector and are related to afforestation
of abandoned agricultural land, eroded and erosion-threatened areas, restoration and maintenance of shelterbelts. It is clear
that the legislator does not consider that building new windbreaks is necessary and only restoration of existing ones needed.
At the same time, a measure for introduction of water-saving and energy-saving irrigation technologies is included in the
agriculture sector. Although they are an inseparable part of some agricultural practices, irrigation systems do not have that
complex of benefits inherent in the proven long-term sustainable shelterbelts building practice.
Climate change will directly affect agricultural yields, which is an essential argument for conducting mitigation actions.
Changes may also have a positive effect on yields (prolonged vegetation period, increased rainfall), but their overall impact is
destabilizing the environment, which is associated with extremes in temperature and extreme climatic events (natural disasters)
[18], [19]. The clearly expressed moderate-continental climate in Northern Bulgaria, characterized by prolonged droughts and
strong winds, creates prerequisites for compromising agricultural activity. This is particularly important for a region with
fertile soils, where agriculture is main land use type. The analysis of meteorological elements shows that it is precisely for the
northern and northeastern parts of the country the greatest need for construction of windbreaks [14]. The established
shelterbelts provide an opportunity to correct the impact of small rainfall (530-650 mm) and strong winds in the area. Trends
in temperature increase have been identified over the last decades along the Danube coast [20]. According to the authors, the
biggest difference is in the summer temperatures – 1-1,2 °С and the lowest is for the winter ones – 0,5 °С. The data are for the
survey period 1931-2013. In transition seasons there is hardly any difference in seasonal temperatures.
The most significant climate change impact on agricultural activity is the reduction of precipitation [21]. According to
the author, all climate models for coming decades show rainfall reduction in spring, which will adversely affect soil moisture
and spring crops grown in non-irrigated areas. Other authors also believe that reduction in yields will be result of worsening
conditions in non-irrigated agriculture [22]. According to Alexandrov this is particularly true for southeastern Europe, where
rainfall will decrease. He proposes restructuring to irrigated agriculture [23]. In line with this idea, protection belts will also
help, especially if irrigation systems have open channels.
Climate change also raises the issue of windbreaks sustainability. In some models developed for managing forest
landscapes significant principals are sustainability and environmental factors, especially climate change [24]. Adaptation of
forests to climate change is needed [25]. Following an analysis of the ‘Program of measures for climate change adaptation of
forests in Bulgaria and reduction of negative impact’ adopted in 2011, the authors conclude that the climate in Bulgaria will
become warmer and dryer, especially in the second half of the 21st century, and that rainfall reduction during the warm half-
year will negatively affect ecosystems, including forests. The program of measures identifies vulnerability zones and
adaptation measures for forests, Figure 4.

icshge.org
(a) (b) (c)

Figure 4. Vulnerability zones of forest ecosystems in Bulgaria: a) in contemporary climate (1961-1990); b) in 2080 (optimistic scenario); c) in 2080
(pessimistic scenario). Legend: Zone A – too high vulnerability; Zone Б – high vulnerability; Zone В – medium vulnerability; Zone Г – low vulnerability;
Zone Д – too low vulnerability. Source: [25]
Optimistic, realistic and pessimistic scenarios for the present climate and possible changes in coming decades of this
century have been developed. The optimistic scenario for 2080 is largely identical to the current situation when it comes to
agricultural territories. They fall into Zone B – with high degree of vulnerability. This means that, at present, in these territories
the conditions are not optimal for forestry activities. Under the pessimistic scenario, a large percentage of agricultural areas
located in the lowest parts of the country fall into Zone A – with very high degree of vulnerability.
IV. WINDBREAKS CHARACTERISTICS AND PLANNING

For description of windbreaks, some information materials from Training manual for applied agroforestry practices –
2015 Edition are used. In Chapter 6. Windbreaks [26] are described the following shelterbelts characteristics: height, density,
orientation, length, width, continuity, cross-sectional shape. The windbreak height (H) has the most significant influence on
the length of the wind-protected area. Wind reduction is 2H to 5H from the windward and 30H from the leeward barrier side.
The windbreak length determines the actual area of protected zone. For maximum efficiency the ratio length:height should be
at least 10:1. This prevents further turbulent movements along the periphery of the protected area.
The density of plants strongly influences wind speed. It is defined as a percentage of an impermeable barrier in three
degrees: dense – 60-80 % (minimum wind speed but also small area); moderately dense – 40-60 % (less reduced speed but
more protected area); and permeable – less than 40 % (suitable for evenly distributed snowfall). Therefore, the denser the
barrier, the more the wind speed is reduced, but the protected area is smaller. Determining the correct density depends on what
the barriers will be used for. For example, low density belts are suitable for uniform distribution of snow cover and are not
suitable for protection against wind erosion.
The windbreak orientation must comply with the prevailing strong winds. Since the direction is not constant and
fluctuates, the belts should be oriented perpendicularly to the problem winds. The windbreak width is related to achieving
appropriate density. It depends on number of rows, planting distances, species composition. Greater width can contribute to
additional benefits - biodiversity, product production, and more. The windbreak continuity is related to its effectiveness.
Openings or breaks along the belt act as a funnel, concentrating the airflow and increasing its speed above normal levels for
open field. In cross-section, the belt may be rectangular, trapezoidal or triangular in shape. To a certain extent the speed is
affected by these forms, but it depends more on the windbreak density.
The planning and design of wind protection belts complies with legal framework, purpose and status of territories, their
ownership, forest plans and programs, specific site conditions and necessary functions of the plantations. According to Art. 2,
para. 1. of the Forestry Act, these belts are forests. According to their functions, windbreaks belong to protective afforestation
(Art. 9 of Ordinance No 2 of 7 February 2013 on the conditions and order for afforestation of forest territories and agricultural
lands used for creation of special, protective and economic forests and forests in protected areas, inventory of created crops,
their reporting and registration). The Ordinance defines requirements for development of technological plans for afforestation,
exploratory work, determination of type of habitat, selection of tree and shrub species. The selection of species takes into
account the specific functions of vegetation, e.g. for sheltered forest belts the species must be fast growing, long-life, wind
resistant, snow-proof and dry-resistant.
The creation of pan-European ecological network Natura 2000 requires some changes in the use of vegetation within
protected areas. Under Regulation (Ordinance No 2 of 7 February 2013), afforestation of non-afforested areas within protected
territories and Natura 2000 protected areas takes into account the respective regimes in management plans. For example, in
artificial restoration of existing forest crops in Natura 2000 protected areas should be used the same tree species and cultivars
of which they are created.
The windbreak efficacy is greater when a complete network of belts is built [14]. According to the authors, a belt system
includes primary and secondary barriers. The primary belts are oriented perpendicular to the direction of the prevailing strong
winds on an average of 500 m and the secondary ones – perpendicular to the them, at a distance of 1 000 m on average. Other
researchers state that belt system includes three types of plantations – main, intermediate and additional [27]. The first type
coincides with the above described, with the addition that distance between belts varies between 300 and 500 m. Intermediate
belts support the function of the main ones located parallel to them in order to maintain the elevated air flow. The additional
barriers, similar to the secondary ones, are located perpendicular to the main ones, at a distance of 800-1200 m in order to
protect against winds from other than the general direction.

icshge.org
By connecting all forest plantations, to the technical benefits can be added the ecological value. Thus protected natural
areas adjacent to the agricultural landscape can be bound. This gives an additional economic motivation for creation of so-
called green infrastructure. It provides much more benefits for people, wildlife and the economy [28]. Its improvement is also
in line with one of the EU's new objectives for biodiversity conservation in 2020. The Green infrastructure bulletin [29]
released in 2010 outlined some basic arguments. Green infrastructure supports the state of natural environment, for example
by mitigating the impact of climate change, which is more cost-effective than expensive man-made technological solutions. A
more integrated approach to land management is the best way to build green infrastructure. This can be done by spatial planning
on a wider scale, covering a larger area, e.g. region or municipality.
Last but not least, on general level, it should be indicated a direction for increasing sustainability and integrity of
territories. One of the most important principles in large-scale planning is the development of multifunctional territories [30].
Except protected areas, in other places where anthropogenic impact is significant, the function integrity principle has to be
applied. This is particularly relevant for the agricultural landscape, where farming restricts the use of land for other purposes,
thus changing not only the environment but also the way of living.
After taking these general issues into account, one could go to a specific windbreak design. Their structure is consistent
with the desired effect and depending on what will be defended: crops or orchards; soils; livestock farms. In [26] is given the
following sequence of the design process:
 determination of purpose of wind protection barriers;
 analysis and evaluation of existing site conditions;
 specification of windbreaks characteristics and choice of plant species;
 choice of planting technology and definition of maintenance activities.
V. CONCLUSION
In relation with the priceless qualities of forest to regulate water, energy and carbon cycles, a group of researchers propose
a change in paradigms and a shift from a carbon-oriented model to a model that puts hydrological and cooling effect of forests
first [31]. In line with that in long term and by implementation of necessary measures for increasing woods and building up
windbreaks, it would be possible the described pessimistic scenario to be avoided.
The main problems for agricultural territories in Bulgaria due to climate change are rainfall decrease and increase of
temperature. On the other hand, the frequency of extreme meteorological phenomena – storms with intense rainfall, leading to
floods, accelerate erosion processes and activate landslides – increases. The relief features in turn allow the appearance of
strong winds in plain areas with predominantly agricultural use. Taking into account the complex of problems, the negative
consequences due to irrigated agriculture, as well as all non-agricultural benefits of forest protection belts, it becomes clear
that windbreaks are better alternative compare to irrigation systems construction. After further analysis, it is possible to redirect
planned means of constructing irrigation systems to establishment of a shelterbelts system as a practice that brings more
benefits and minimal problems for arable land. Along with restoration activities of existing belts, it is possible of providing a
further measure for creating new plantings in agricultural areas where climate variables are expected to limit the development
of cultivated crops.
In order to minimize competition between crops and protecting plantings, the choice of tree species must take account of
past research and potential climate change. It was found, for example, that the most suitable tree species for Dobrudja are
Quercus robur L., Quercus cerris L., Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl., Frainus excelsior L. and Fraxinus oxycarpa Willd.,
Gleditchia triacanthos L., Juglans regia L., Ulmus pumila L., Robinia pseudoacacia L. [11]. From the species that have
historically proven to be appropriate could be chosen those ones that would resist on changing conditions, or would be more
resource-friendly, especially to water consumption. Georgiev explains that Quercus most economically uses soil moisture,
followed by Fraxinus oxycarpa Willd., Acer negundo L., Gleditchia triacanthos L. and Robinia pseudoacacia L.
When setting up a windbreak system, it is first necessary to clarify the main function of barriers. They can work in two
main directions:
 reduction of soil erosion and protection of agricultural crops;
 uniform distribution of snow cover.
Although in both cases all other benefits are present, the specific function requires differences in density and location of
plantations. In the first case, it is required a density of 40-60 % [26] and further, in case of wind-sensitive crops, the distance
between belts needs to be reduced to 6-10 times their height. This means that at 10-15 m height of the belts, they should be at
a distance of 100-150 m instead of 300-500 m. Therefore, in sloping terrains, in territories with extreme precipitation events,
or in presence of soils with light mechanical composition susceptible to wind erosion, a significant ecological effect will have
those barriers that are closely located and have a higher density. Conversely, when there is a lack of precipitation, uniform
distribution of snowfall is a necessary option. This is achieved precisely by more permeable belts, with a density of up to 25-
30 % [26]. In this case, the belts could be located at a greater distance, equal to 15-20 times their height.
REFERENCES
[1] R. Steiner, Die Geheimwissenschaft Im Umriss, 1909.
[2] J. Brandle, L. Hodges, J. Tyndall, R. Sudmeyer, “Windbreak Practices”, North American Agroforestry: An Integrated Science and Practice, 2nd
edition, 2009, pp. 75-104.
[3] V. Popov, O. Popova, Formation of shelter plantations, Science Publ., 1980, 144 p.
[4] H. Isachenko, Forestry properties of main and secondary wood species for creation of state protective belts, Zemizdat, Sofia, 1950, 125 p.

icshge.org
[5] K. Yordanov, (2003, Mart 19), The image of Bulgarians and Bulgarian lands in the chronicles of the First, Second and Third crusades, [Online],
Available: http://www.modvsvivendi.org/bg/biblioteka/bg_and_crusades.htm.
[6] V. Rangelov, D. Karatoteva, “Analysis of the green system in landscapes of the Sitovo Municipality”, International Academy Journal Web of Scholar,
1(10), February 2017, pp. 6-8.
[7] Y. Chendev, T. Sauer, G. Ramirez, Ch. Burras, “History of east European chernozem soil degradation. Protection and restoration by tree windbreaks
in the Russian steppe”, Sustainability, 2015, 7, pp. 705-724.
[8] G. Georgiev, Al. Koserkov, P. Panaiotov, Additional uses of wind protection belts. State Publ. Varna. 1961, 91 pp.
[9] P. Kudryashov, V. Erusalimsky, L. Knyazeva. Management of state forest shelter belts, Agropromizdat, 1985, 80 p.
[10] T. Cable, “Nonagricultural Benefits of Windbreaks in Kansas”, Great Plains Research: A Journal of Natural and Social Sciences, 1999, 9, pp. 41-53.
[11] G. Georgiev, Forest protection belts in Bulgaria, State publishing house Varna, 1960, 206 p.
[12] J. Brandle, L. Hodges, X. Zhou, “Windbreaks in North American Agricultural Systems”, in: Agronomy & Horticulture - Faculty Publications, 2004,
389, pp. 65-78.
[13] Wind protection belts in Dobrudja - a gift for farmers, (2018, August 25), [Online], Available: https://www.agronet.bg/agro/20050-
242e911b813cff58935b1c53d91adc3a.html.
[14] I. Marinov, F. Genova, “Ecological prerequisites for creation of forest protection belts in northern Bulgaria”, Forest Science, 2008, vol. 3, pp. 99-107.
[15] M. Shahanova, “Creating compositions of perennial flowers in changing urban environment”, Management and Sustainable Development, 2016, pр.
83-87.
[16] M. Shahanova, Zl. Kabatliyska, “Introduction of new ornamental floral species in the context of sustainable development - experience of cultivation of
a native and non-native ecotype of Bituminaria (L.) Stirt.” (Accepted for publication), Management and Sustainable Development, 2018, to be
published.
[17] S. Rousseva, V. Stefanova, (2006 January), Assessment and Mapping of Soil Erodibility and Rainfall Erosivity in Bulgaria, [Online], Available:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/251813968_Assessment_and_Mapping_of_Soil_Erodibility_and_Rainfall_Erosivity_in_Bulgaria.
[18] V. Alexandrov, P. Simeonov, V. Kazandzhiev, G. Korchev, A. Yotova, Climate change, Brochure of National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology
– Bulgarian Academy of Science. 2010, 49 p.
[19] Z. Spasova, Climate change – a threat to human health, Brochure of National Center of Public Health and Analyses – Ministry of Health, 2013, 48 p.
[20] N. Nikolova, N. Assenova, V. Daskalova, G. Hristov, N. Dyakova, “Multi-year changes in air temperature on Bulgarian coast of Danube river”, in:
Yearbook of Sofia University "St. Kliment Ohridski", Book 2 Geography, 2015, Vol. 2, pp. 71-84.
[21] Iv. Koleva-Lizama, “Analysis and assessment of risk and vulnerability in the field of agriculture”, in: Analysis and Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
of Bulgarian Economy Sectors from Climate Change, Special part - Ministry of Environment and Water, 2014, pp. 7-27, [Online], Available:
https://www.moew.government.bg/static/media/ups/articles/attachments/Specialna_chat929dbdd9d9a2e4690311a63dd80adda6.pdf.
[22] V. Alexandrov, Climate Change in Bulgaria: Past, Present, and Future, 2014a, [Online], Available: http://catrisk.insmarket.eu/docs/Veselin-
Alexandrov.pdf.
[23] V. Alexandrov, Climate change and adaptation measures, 2014b, [Online], Available:
http://institutfrancais.bg/media/29/fc/4aa8674ed5598794a39e3df8b3b9/vesselin-alexandrov.pdf.
[24] E. Dragozova-Ivanova, I. Paligorov, I. Ivanov, S. Kovacheva, “Management modelling for forest landscapes”, Economics and Business, 2016, 8, pp.
90-97.
[25] V. Marinova, L. Trichkov, N. Vassilev, “Hot spots – forests and climate change. Program of measures for adaptation of forests in the Republic of
Bulgaria and reduction of negative impact of climate change on them”, Management and Sustainable Development, 1/2011 (28), pp. 240-250.
[26] B. Wight, R. Straight, “Windbreaks”, in: Training Manual for Applied Agroforestry Practices – 2015 Edition, Center for Agroforestry, University of
Missouri, pp. 92-114.
[27] V. Troeva, G. Tzolova, Landscape Planning, University of Architecture, Civil Engineering and Geodesy Publ., 1997, p. 333.
[28] K. Mihova, G. Tzolova, “Green Infrastructure - an approach to sustainable landscape”, Forestry Ideas, 2009, 2 (38), pp. 219-229.
[29] Green Infrastructure, EU Bulletin, 2010.
[30] P. Evrev, Territorial and spatial planning of recreation and tourism, "St. Kliment Ohridski" University Press., 1999, 206 p.
[31] D. Ellison, at al. “Trees, forests and water: Cool insights for a hot world”, Global Environmental Change, 2017, Vol. 43, pp. 51-61.

icshge.org
Chapter 4.

icshge.org
Sociocultural Carrying Capacity: A methodological proposal to

measure the impact of population growth in Rapa Nui
Ángel, P.
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Observatorio de Ciudades UC (OCUC), Santiago, Providencia 7500000, Chile
Abstract—The sustained population increase in Easter Island or Rapa Nui has been a significant concern for the local
community since a discussion has started about the impact it generates in the territory, which raises the need to establish
measures of management to ensure its sustainability of it. To this end, a bill has been developed that seeks to regulate the
permanence, residence and transfer to the territory, as well as to promote a technical instrument that allows calculating the
carrying capacity of the island, in order to take a series of measures from overcoming their thresholds. The said instrument
will be in charge of Urban Plans and Projects of the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, through an applied research project,
of which this thesis is part of, from deepening in a less explored within the traditional methodologies to measure the carrying
capacity, that is, the sociocultural dimension. Thus, this document focuses on proposing a methodology to measure the
Sociocultural Carrying Capacity of Rapa Nui, to monitor the impact that is generated from the phenomena brought about by
the increase in population (resident and tourist) not belonging to the local ethnic group, with the ultimate goal of providing a
tool capable of guiding a management model with a livelihood in preserving or safeguarding local identity, heritage and social
coexistence in the insular territory.
Keywords—carrying capacity, sociocultural, methodology, Easter Island, Rapa Nui
I. INTRODUCTION
T HE demographic explosion in Rapa Nui, as a result of the arrival of new inhabitants attracted by the economic possibilities
offered by tourism and the widespread increase of visitors, constitutes a significant concern for the community, who have
started a discussion on the impacts of this on the territory. Faced with this problem, the island community raised the need to
take measures to ensure the sustainability and preservation of its cultural and environmental heritage. This request motivated
the approval of a law that seeks to regulate the permanence, stay and transfer to Easter Island.
Figure 1. location of Rapanui, Chile. Source: own elaboration

icshge.org
Said law points out the need to have a technical instrument that allows calculating the carrying capacity of the territory,
to take a series of measures based on defined thresholds. In this context, the Undersecretary of Regional and Administrative
Development entrusted Universidad Católica de Chile with the task of developing this instrument, which will be used for
decision making within the framework of the law.
In an initial stage, it was considered to involve demographic, environmental, infrastructure and sociocultural variables.
However, at a later stage, the little bibliography and methodologies to approach the subject, as well as the enormous difficulty
to define the sociocultural carrying capacity was identified.
For this reason, a research process was started, whose purpose was to propose a methodology to measure and monitor the
Sociocultural Carrying Capacity in Rapa Nui, mainly based on the phenomena that bring along the increase of population and
the effects on social relationships between residents and foreigners about local identity. The ultimate goal was to provide an
instrument with the capacity of guiding a management model in order to preserve and protect the local identity, heritage and
social coexistence in the territory.
A. Sociocultural Carrying Capacity
One of the most common definitions of the concept of carrying capacity is associated with the maximum population that
a given habitat can support without permanently damaging the productivity of the ecosystem on which its population depends
(European Environment Agency, 1998). From this definition, it follows that the concept has a close relationship with ecology.
However, as a result of transformations in political and epistemological contexts, this postulate has evolved and developed a
variety of perspectives from ecological, urban, and psychosocial economic and cultural scopes (Coccossis, 2004; Coccossis,
et al., 2002; Honghua, et al., 2016), because it is recognized that, when the capacity of local systems overflows, a decline is
generated, not only in the vital environments, but also in the material and immaterial heritage, as well as in the quality of life
of residents (Prats, 2007).
The concept of Sociocultural Carrying Capacity responds to the effects that can be generated from the touristification of
a territory, which can produce changes in traditional ways of life; family structures and community organizations; intercultural
conflicts; over-commercialization of arts and crafts, which can lead to the loss of authenticity; among other effects (Bretlaender
& Toth, 2014; Coccossis, et al., 2002). Knowing and understanding these consequences is necessary for the planning of
sustainable local development so that local communities and cultures are permanent beneficiaries and not victims of tourism
development (OMT, 1998).
On the other hand, the literature that emerged from this concept, despite recognizing its importance, includes a series of
drawbacks associated with its measurement, such as the lack of quantifiable measures; difficulties in predicting impacts; the
fact that the solutions proposed by different experts do not always reach a consensus; the lack of acceptable environmental
indicators; and the subjective nature of certain parameters; among others. As a result, this scenario implies that the concept is
treated mainly from a theoretical perspective and not from an empirical one (López and López, 2008, Navarro, et al., 2012).
II. METHODOLOGY
Given the lack of bibliography on Sociocultural Carrying Capacity measurement systems, a decision was made to base
the methodological proposal on the search of variables and indicators used to measure, evaluate and monitor sociocultural
sustainability, taking as main references research studies developed with the presence of indigenous cultures and/or in isolated
territories. At the same time, the need to establish a quantitative indicator system was defined, with the objective of providing
comparable information for the analysis and monitoring of variables that are to be measured over time. The research is
structured under three main stages.
Figure 2. Methodology. Source: own elaboration

icshge.org
The first one involves the definition of a matrix of quantitative indicators to measure Rapanui’s Sociocultural Carrying
Capacity, which, in broad terms, consists of carrying out an extensive bibliographic review, in order to identify sociocultural
criteria and variables, with the purpose of developing a first conceptual approach to the measurement system. Then, the socio-
cultural effects of tourism development and demographic explosion in the territory will be defined with respect to the different
criteria and variables previously identified, through the review of secondary sources associated with the territory under study.
In this way, an approach to the local problem will be obtained.
Both methods (conceptual and experiential approaches to the problem) are key inputs for a first selection of indicators.
This was carried out using the Delphi methodology with a group of experts in the concepts of “carrying capacity” and “local
reality.” They were provided with both the conceptual matrix and the sociocultural diagnosis, in order to support the matrix
validation process, based on the prioritization of variables to be included in the system.
With a validated conceptual matrix, we proceeded to identify indicators and instruments with which data would be
collected, either through surveys, interviews, cadasters or secondary sources, in order to establish the logistics of data
collection.
The second stage consisted in the screening of indicators according to the feasibility of obtaining data and its relevance,
for which the following filters proposed by the FAO (2001) were considered:
- The feasibility of collecting comparable and measurable information over time.
- The estimated quantity and quality of the data that can be obtained.
- The costs of information gathering.
- The relevance of the indicator to measure the objective.
- The reliability of available information.
A second version of the measurement system was obtained from this exercise. Although the matrix of indicators had already
gone through more than one selection filter, the next (third) stage corresponded to the final validation of the measurement
system, which revealed the opinion of local experts. In this way, they fulfilled a double function: experts and members of the
community, which placed them as the main experts of the socio-cultural dynamics of the area under study. Said figures were
not included in previous stages, since these had been limited to a cabinet and on-site pilot test. The methodology proposed for
this stage is based on the “Expert judgment validation” methodology. The selection of the people who were part of this exercise
was made based on their knowledge and performance in different activities of Rapanui’s sociocultural dimensions, as well as
their availability and willingness to participate.
This exercise sought that experts eliminated those variables and/or indicators that they considered irrelevant for the case
study, and added those that they identified as essential, thus making relevant modifications. In turn, it was important that these
changes were consistent with validity and reliability criteria in order to promote the quality of the measurement instrument.
The way to collect this information was a group workshop, in which a level of consensus was applied to make the decision on
how the final matrix of indicators would be structured.
III. RESULTS
Although, this research presents a series of intermediate results, the methodological proposal to measure the Sociocultural
Carrying Capacity of Rapa Nui is presented below (Table 1).
The indicator matrix is constructed under six variables. The first one corresponds to the "Vitality of cultural artistic
expressions," it seeks to elucidate both the participation of the community on community celebrations and commemorations
and artistic-cultural expressions, such as music, dance, traditional medicine, kai (thread game) 1, body art, myths and legends,
crafts and the dissemination of them.
This participation can be in the capacity of observer and/or participant, which helps to visualize their role in the exhibition
of artistic-cultural expressions and how non-ethnic residents are involved in community activities. In turn, the variable allows
seeing the participation of the community in the different cultural-artistic expressions, the context of their practice and the
level of knowledge of it. It also considers the role of cultural promoters as agents that carry knowledge, which can be passed
on to future generations.
The second revolves around the "Traditional activities." The variable seeks to deepen the participation of the Rapa Nui
community in traditional activities, determined by agriculture, livestock, fishing, traditional medicine, Hahaki (seafood) and
typical cuisine. Also, about the abandonment of certain traditional activities (livestock, agriculture, fishing) from activities
related to tourism.
The third refers to the "Vitality of the language", which is made up of six secondary variables that UNESCO (2003) and
Tsnonudas (2006) indicate are the main ones to measure the vitality of the language, which includes the intergenerational
transmission; proportion of speakers in the population as a whole, changes in the fields of use (if the language is spoken in
both public and private spaces); learning context (associated with the role of educational institutions); language proficiency;
response to new areas (presence in the local media). It also includes a variable, indicated as relevant by local experts: motivation
to learn the native language.
The fourth variable “Natural cultural heritage” is defined based on the state of conservation and the threats that affect
the natural heritage that is used for traditional medicine; craftsmanship, sculpture, and carving; feeding; furniture and
1
A tradition that combines poetry with the realization of figures with thread.

icshge.org
construction. It also considers the management of tourist sites that have a high concentration of species, such as wetlands.
The fifth variable corresponds to “Archaeological heritage” and is established from a series of indicators that seek to
measure the state of conservation and risk of damage to the heritage, either from threats due to land use, by the legal status of
the site, the present management measures, among others.
The last variable corresponds to coexistence, which seeks to collect the perception of residents, based on the impact
generated by population growth and the increase in tourists on the different aspects of local daily life.
On the other hand, the methods of data collected correspond to:
1. Survey: it should be noted that the project that hosts this research thesis, surveyed to all dwellings in the Island. In
this, the questions associated to the indicators that must be collected through the "carrying capacity survey"
instrument, therefore, in table 1, all the indicators that will have data through the survey made are indicated.
2. Interview with key figures: when you need to reach a depth level through expert information.
3. Secondary source: when the information is already available in documents and databases.
4. Cadaster: when it is necessary to collect information through a particular study.
TABLE I
A METHODOLOGICAL PROPOSAL TO MEASURE THE IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH IN RAPA NUI
Variable Secondary Variable Tertiary Variable Indicator Instrument
Community % of Rapa Nui/non Rapa Nui people who attend Carrying Capacity
Celebrations and involvement. community celebrations and commemorations. Survey.
commemorations. Context of % of Rapa Nui/non Rapa Nui people who observe or Carrying Capacity
VITALITY OF CULTURAL ARTISTIC
participation. participate in ceremonies. Survey.

Nº of Rapa Nui/non Rapa Nui people who perform Carrying Capacity
Practice.
cultural artistic expressions. Survey.
Development of the Level of knowledge acquired by participants from Carrying Capacity
Participation in artistic-
EXPRESSIONS.
practice. cultural artistic expressions. Survey

cultural expressions.
% of Rapa Nui/non Rapa Nui people who perform
Context of the Carrying Capacity
cultural artistic expression in spiritual religious,
practice. Survey.
tourism, and recreational contexts, among others.
Secondary source and
Nº of cultural promoters by cultural artistic
Cultural promoters. interview to key
expression.
figures .
Knowledge carriers. Dissemination of the Nº of people who carry knowledge that disseminates
Cadaster.
practice. (teaches) the practice.
Programs of cultural % of teaching hours dedicated to cultural artistic
Interviews at schools.
education. education with respect to total teaching hours.
Participation in some
traditional activity
TRADITIONAL
ACTIVITIES.
(traditional medicine, % of Rapa Nui/non Rapa Nui people who perform Carrying Capacity
Practice.
agriculture, livestock, some traditional activity. Survey.
fishing, hahaki,
gastronomy).
% of Rapa Nui people who have moved from Carrying Capacity

Desertion. Practice.
traditional activities to tourism activities. Survey.
% of Rapa Nui/non Rapa Nui people who speak the Carrying Capacity
Intergenerational
vernacular language by age range. Survey.
transmission of the
vernacular language. % of parents who speak to their children in Rapa Carrying Capacity
Nui. Survey.
Proportion of speakers in % of speakers of the language over the total number Carrying Capacity
VITALITY OF THE LANGUAGE.
the population as a whole. of residents of the Island. Survey.

Change in the spaces of % of Rapanui people who speak the language in Carrying Capacity
language use. public/private spaces. Survey.
Compliance with the immersion program of the
language (compare the established number of hours
Interviews at schools.
with the actual number of hours that are being
applied).
Context for learning and Nº of professors who speak Rapanui (during class
teaching the Rapanui hours) over the total number of professors. Interviews at schools.
language.
% of teaching hours devoted to promoting
multilingualism with respect to the total number of Interviews at schools.
teaching hours.
Secondary source.
Mastery of the language. Degree of linguistic competence by age range.

icshge.org
Response to new areas. Presence in new areas and the media. Cadaster.
% of Rapanui/non Rapa Nui people who do not

Carrying Capacity
Willingness to learn. speak the language but express an interest in
Survey.
learning it.
Species for traditional Preservation status. Level of preservation status. Secondary source.
medicine.
NATURAL CULTURAL HERITAGE.
Threats. Degree of exploitation. Cadaster.
Species for crafts, Preservation status. Level of preservation status. Secondary source.
sculpture and carving.
Preservation status. Level of preservation status. Secondary source.

Species for food.
Species for furniture Preservation status. Level of preservation status. Secondary source.
making and construction.
Degree of protection of sites with higher Interviews to key
Site management. concentration of species. figures.
Changes in land use. Distance to the urban expansion radius. Cadaster.

Use of the property division in which the site is
Cadaster.
Livestock uses. located.
Signs of animal transit on the site. Cadaster.
Use of the property division in which the site is
Threats from land uses. Agricultural uses. Cadaster.
located.
Natural area. Type of predominant vegetation. Secondary source.
Distance to the urban area. Cadaster.

Urban area.
Distance to roads. Cadaster.
Legal status of the site (public or private). Secondary source.
Legal threats.
Tourist population.
Total tourist population. Secondary source.
Population threats.
Resident population. Total resident population. Secondary source.
ARCHAEOLOGICAL HERITAGE.
Exposure level. Cadaster.

Weather conditions.
Signs of ponding. Cadaster.
Natural threats. Distance to the coastline (m2). Cadaster.
Geographic Distance to gorges. Cadaster.
conditions.
% of water channels on the site. Cadaster.
Compliance with the site’s carrying capacity. Cadaster.
Compliance with site Compliance with the site’s management plan. Cadaster.
management
measures.
% of the heritage site under management measures. Secondary source.
Presence of fence or entry line (immediate

Cadaster.
protection).
Presence of fence or entry line (farther protection). Cadaster.
Presence of watchmen. Cadaster.
Presence of visitation trails managed by agents who
Management measures. Visiting conditions. Cadaster.
are in charge of the site’s preservation.
Presence of visitation trails not managed by agencies
Cadaster.
in charge of the site’s preservation.
Presence of signaling (near protection). Cadaster.
Presence of signaling (farther protection). Cadaster.
Presence of heritage education programs. Secondary source.

Heritage education.
% of the population who participate in heritage
Secondary source.
education programs.

icshge.org
Landscape’s preservation Intervention in the

Landscape value (scale used by Sonia Haoa). Cadaster.
status. environment.
N° of elements of archaeological value on the site. Cadaster.
Features. Magnitude of grooves. Cadaster.
Concentration of elements on the site. Cadaster.
Signs of fire. Cadaster.
Damage caused by traffic or vehicle accidents. Cadaster.
Signs of damage by
Signs of re-marking by non-specialist human action. Cadaster.
anthropic action.
% of physical loss or removal. Cadaster.
Preservation status of the
Signs of traffic on the archaeological heritage site. Secondary source.
site.
Signs of silica crust. Cadaster.
% of fissures or cracks due to weathering. Cadaster.
% of natural depression in lithology. Cadaster.
Signs of damage by % of physical loss or removal due to weathering. Cadaster.
natural action.
Signs of microflora. Cadaster.
Signs of corrosion. Cadaster.
Soil erosion. Secondary source.
% of the population that identifies that population
Effects of population Carrying Capacity
growth contributes/does not contribute to the loss of
growth. Survey.
traditional life patterns.
% of the population that identifies that tourism
Carrying Capacity
encourages/does not encourage traditions to be
Survey.
Identity. practiced again.
Carrying Capacity
Effects of tourism. helps/does not help value the cultural heritage by
Survey.
residents.
Carrying Capacity
contributes/does not contribute to the loss of
Survey.
traditional life patterns.
growth Carrying Capacity
contributes/does not contribute to the development Survey.
of social conflicts between the Rapanui people.
% of population that identifies that population
Carrying Capacity
growth
Survey.
generates/does not generate discrimination.
Effects of population
growth. % of the population that identifies that population
growth contributes/does not contribute to the Carrying Capacity
development of social conflicts between Rapanui Survey.
and non Rapanui people.
Social conflicts.
COEXISTENCE.

Carrying Capacity
growth contributes/does not contribute to the
Survey.
increase of crime, drugs and alcohol.
contributes/does not contribute to the development Carrying Capacity
of social conflicts between residents and tourists. Survey.
Effects of tourism.
Carrying Capacity
contributes/does not contribute to the increase in
Survey.
crime, drugs and alcohol.
Carrying Capacity
growth generates/does not generate more
Effects of population Survey.
employment opportunities.
growth.
% of the population that identifies that population Carrying Capacity
Economic growth increases/does not increase the cost of living. Survey.
benefits/negative impacts. % of the population that identifies that tourism
Carrying Capacity
generates/does not generate greater employment
Survey.
Effects of tourism. opportunities.
% of the population that identifies that tourism Carrying Capacity
increases/does not increase the cost of living. Survey.
growth contributes/does not contribute to excessive Carrying Capacity
housing construction. Survey.
Overcrowding and urban Effects of population
density. growth. % of the population that identifies that population
growth Carrying Capacity
contributes/does not contribute to the increase of Survey.
vehicular traffic and accidents.

icshge.org

Carrying Capacity
contributes/does not contribute to the excessive
Survey.
construction of housing.
Effects of tourism. % of the population that identifies that tourism
contributes/does not contribute to the increase of Carrying Capacity
vehicular traffic and accidents. Survey.

Carrying Capacity
growth generates/does not generate a greater
Survey.
accumulation of waste and garbage.
Effects of population
growth. % of the population that identifies that population
growth generates/does not generate water and soil Carrying Capacity
pollution and the loss of biodiversity. Survey.
Effects to the
environment.
Carrying Capacity
generates/does not generate increased accumulation
Survey.
of waste and garbage.
Effects of tourism.
Carrying Capacity
generates/does not generate water and soil pollution,
Survey.
and the loss of biodiversity.
Source: own elaboration
The measurement matrix and the research process carried out by means of this thesis allowed us to propose a conceptual
definition of sociocultural carrying capacity in Rapanui, which is defined as the territory’s capacity to preserve the state of
balance and vitality of its cultural and social environment, which is made up of natural and archaeological heritage, cultural
artistic expressions, traditional activities, orality, and sense of community, based on the interaction with external figures. This
balance can be achieved from two axes: 1) establishing limits of demographic carrying capacity; 2) establishing management
instruments in accordance with the sociocultural protection of the territory.
In that sense, it is defined that the territory does not exceed its Sociocultural Carrying Capacity when presenting a balance
in: 1) its identity, understood as the combination between the vitality of its cultural artistic expressions, traditional activities
and language; 2) a good state of preservation and low risk of damage to its natural cultural and archaeological heritage; and 3)
a positive coexistence between the different cultures that circulate in the territory.
To reach the balance of the Rapa Nui identity, the conservation of its heritage and social coexistence, it is necessary to
understand both the internal and external factors that interfere in it.
Among some of the internal factors, it can be noted that the Rapa Nui natural-cultural heritage has a close relationship
with its identity, insofar as intervening or exploiting these resources interfere in traditional medicine, crafts, sculpture, and
carving. Also, the deterioration of archaeological heritage causes conflicts in coexistence, to the extent that they are responsible
for it. Also, the development of traditional activities, such as livestock, and agriculture affects the state of conservation of the
archaeological heritage, since in some way the activities require the use of soil, and often it is done without the adequate
protection.
In another line, external factors, such as the pollution of natural resources, the excessive production of garbage, the
increase of the vehicle fleet, among other effects that have high participation in population growth, intervene in coexistence
and modes of local life. In the same way, scarce planning and implementation of management measures to protect the heritage
may affect in their conservation status.
Similarly, the loss of identity - as an example - causes external factors, through the repercussion in the type of developed
tourism (of special interests), which interferes in one way or another in local economic development. To understand the
magnitude of this, it is necessary to emphasize that tourism in Rapa Nui has been the protagonist of its economic development,
and the positive consequences have been inescapable, especially considering the limited possibilities of economic
diversification, due to the essential obstacles that suppose its condition as an island. Therefore, reverberate in the developed
tourism mode, intervenes in the cultural authenticity of the destination, which can trigger both touristification of it and descend
in a vicious circle that dismantles the base of the local economy, affecting the quality of local life.
IV. CONCLUSIONS
The methodology proposed in this research is based on quantitative indicators, but what are the advantages and
disadvantages of this?
The quantitative indicators have the strength to be less ambiguous, but they also have a series of associated problems,
such as that, in general, they do not have available information, which supposes a high cost and time to collect the necessary
data. They also present enormous difficulties to establish standards and thresholds, which in some way could be less
complicated the use of qualitative indicators and may also be more suitable to assess the sociocultural scope, due to its inherent
complexity, which is impossible to deepen through quantitative indicators.
Faced with these enormous difficulties, what motivates and what advantages does the use of quantitative indicators have?
The contribution of using this type of indicators is that it allows obtaining statistical data disaggregated, comparable and
measurable over time. This is a crucial advantage, which corresponds to the ability to implement a management model that
allows evaluating advances and setbacks in its implementation, through establishing clear and concise goals that can be
evaluated accurately, that is, policies and strategies point to a clear objective.
It is impossible not to detect the enormous difficulty of raising this methodology. However, it is important to emphasize

icshge.org
that this proposal is not applicable to other destinations, but has a clear objective, which is to support a public policy, which
has the resources to raise this information.
At the same time, it is important to point out that this methodology is not capable of collecting profound aspects of the
local identity, due to the methodological difficulty to reveal how it impacts the demographic growth and the tourist
consolidation on it, therefore it must be clarified that the proposal has certain limitations.
However, the benefit is inescapable, from the lifting of this information - by way of example - it is possible to monitor
the intergenerational transmission of the language, the participation of the community in cultural-artistic manifestations, and
thus observe which is the behavior in time, and how we are approaching or moving towards a goal. In conclusion, this
methodology not only defines the socio-cultural carrying capacity of Rapa Nui, but also allows the implementation of measures
in those areas of conflict, that is, it is a significant input to promote a management model.
After selecting the indicators, it is essential to progress towards the definition of standards and decision thresholds, to
assign a value judgment to the results, as well as to define certain optimum levels of quality. From them, it will be possible to
determine the existence or not of a problem, which implies a point of reference where an intervention of improvement should
be triggered.
As it has been explained in this research, the methodologies to measure the carrying capacity, mainly focus on the
recreational management of the protected natural areas, therefore, in general, the standards and thresholds are determined from
physical elements and the acceptable use intensity for a specific area.
In the bibliography explored in the study of referents, none refers to how to define standards and thresholds in the
sociocultural field, however, it is possible to adopt references associated with traditional carrying capacity methodologies.
One methodology that can be used as an example is "Limit of Acceptable Change (LAC)", a tool that focuses on
identifying the acceptable limit of change by an involved community (Álvarez, 2010; Stankey, et al., 1985), that is, it allows
the construction of thresholds based on the decision of the local community, those actors who have the most knowledge of the
problem. This perspective should be taken as the starting point for the construction of socio-cultural standards and thresholds,
with the basis of recognizing the local community as decision-making agents.
To conclude it is necessary to refer that, at the closing date of this thesis, the construction of standards was in full
development with the communities, and at the same time, the data was collected, from the instruments defined in this research.
REFERENCES
Álvarez, M. (2010). Evaluación de la capacidad de carga. Una herramienta para el manejo y la conservación de los sitios patrimoniales. Canto Rodado, 5,
221-247.
Bretlaender, D., & Toth, P. (2014). Kwanini Carrying Capacity Assessment. Informe técnico, Ministry of Information, Culture, Tourism and Sports, Pemba.
Coccossis, H. (2004). Sustainable tourism and carrying capacity: a new context. En H. Coccossis, & A. Mexa, The Challenge of Tourism Carrying Capacity
Assessment (pages 37-53). Hants, UK: Ashgate Publishing Limited.
Coccossis, H., Mexa, A., & Collovini, A. (2002). Defining, measuring and evaluating Carrying Capacity in European Tourism destinations. University of
Argean, Environmental Planning Laboratory. Athens: University of Argean.
FAO. (2001). Directrices para la recopilación sistemática de datos relativos a la pesca de captura. FAO. Bangkok: FAO.
Honghua, S., Chengcheng, S., Wei, Z., Fen, L., Xiaoli, W., Yuan, C., y otros. (2016). A model to assess fundamental and realized carrying capacities of
island ecosystem: A case study in the southern Miaodao Archipelago of China. Acta Oceanol, 35 (2), 56–67.
Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas. (2002). Censo de Población y Vivienda 2002. INE.
Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas. (2017). Pre-censo de Población y Vivienda 2017. INE.
López, J., y López, M. (2008). La capacidad de carga turística: revisión crítica de un instrumento de medida. de sostenibilidad. El periplo sustentable (15),
123-150.
Navarro, J. E., Tejada, M. T., Almeida, F., Cabello, J., Cortés, R., Delgado, J., Fernández, F., Gutiérrez, G., Luque, M., Málvarez, G., Marcenaro, O.,
Navas, F., Ruiz, F., Ruiz, J., Solís, F. (2012). Carrying capacity assessment for tourist destinations. Methodology for the creation of synthetic
indicators applied in a coastal area. Tourism Management, 33(6), 1337-1346.
OMT. (1998). Introducción al turismo. España.
Prats, F. (2007). Sostenibilidad y Turismo, una simbiosis imprescindible. Estudios Turísticos (172-173), 13- 62.
Stankey, G., Cole, D., Lucas, R., Petersen, M., & Frissell, S. (1985). The Limits of Acceptable Change (LAC) System for Wilderness Planning. Reporte
técnico general INT-176, Servicio Forestal, Departamento de Agricultura de los Estados Unidos, Ogden, Utah.
Tsunoda, T. (2006). Language endangerment and language revitalization. Berlín y New York: Mouton de Gruyter.
UNESCO. (2003). Convención sobre el patrimonio inmaterial. Recuperado el 10 de Julio de 2016, de Patrimonio cultural inmaterial:
http://www.unesco.org/culture/ich/es/que-es-el-patrimonio-inmaterial-00003

icshge.org
Sustainability, Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Technologies by

Enjoyable Way for Children of the Next Generation
Friman, H.,1,* Sitbon, Y.,2 Banner, I.,3 and Einav, I.1,4
1
Faculty of Engineering, HIT – Holon Institute of Technology, Holon, 5810201, Israel; * henf@hit.ac.il
2
Dean of Students Office, HIT – Holon Institute of Technology, Holon, 5810201, Israel
3
Director of "Israeli Hope", HIT – Holon Institute of Technology, Holon, 5810201, Israel
4
Dean of Students & Faculty of Engineering, HIT – Holon Institute of Technology, Holon, 5810201, Israel
Abstract—Creating a clean energy future is one of the worldwide goals in 2018. For now, world energy consumption relies heavily on
fossil fuels, which are non-renewable and eventually finite, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. These resources already become too expensive
or too environmentally damaging to retrieve. The importance of renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies is constitutively rising.
How should children be taught about renewable energy, what is the air pollution and how does harming sea creatures affect all of us? In the
last year students from the HIT, Holon Institute of Technology participated in a course "green ambassadors" which combines practical work.
As part of the course requirements, students were asked to conduct enjoyable lessons within the topic of preserving the environment to fifth
and sixth grade pupils in the Arabic elementary school "Alomaria" situated in the city of Ramle. During meetings held within the school, the
students taught the pupils via games and activities what renewable energy means, how to turn waste into a resource, what energy conversion
and renewable energy mean etc. In order to illustrate the topics studied by the pupils, the students used a moveable laboratory containing
demonstrations, experiments and creative activities. In this article we describe the content of the course and how the knowledge obtained
was passed on to young pupils using a creative, “hands on” teaching approach which is more effective than traditional teaching.
Keywords—Arabic, environmental education, elementary school, Hebrew, green ambassador, renewable energy
I. INTRODUCTION
T he development of renewable energy sources is spreading rapidly. Today, as a result of the energy crisis and growing
concern over global warming, national security and the health effects of poor air quality, renewable energy is gaining the
attention of the general public. Fortunately, renewable energy technologies have also been vastly improved in the past two
decades. Scientific advances and global market growth have transformed solar, wind, and bioenergy from backyard novelties
into practical systems capable of fueling our vehicles and heating and lighting our homes, schools, and businesses. Costs have
also fallen as the technology has improved. The cost of generating electricity from wind and solar power has decreased by 90
percent over the past 20 years [1]. Renewables are cleaner and safer than coal, oil, or nuclear power, and their use helps
improve public health and energy security, as well as reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide—the primary global warming
pollutant.
Education is an important first step in making this transition. Renewable energy technologies are ready to be implemented,
but increased public confidence, regulatory reforms, and a system of economic incentives for development of these resources
are needed to make large-scale use of renewables a reality. An understanding of renewable energy will be a crucial part of
scientific literacy for the future. When current middle and high school students reach adulthood, many of them will be
commuting from solar energy-powered homes in biomass-fuelled cars. Much of the electricity they use at home and in the
workplace will come from solar, wind, biomass, and geothermal power.
II. ENVIRONMENTAL EDUCATION

A. Elementary school
Arguments for change are that young people’s interest in choosing a scientific career is declining, scientific ignorance in
the general populace is extensive, economic importance of scientific knowledge is inclining and last but not least students’
opinion that science in school is boring and not relevant for them. In the past decade, there has been mounting evidence that
this problem has become more acute. Studies [2]-[4], have indicated that most youth expressed positive attitudes on the
importance of scientific and technological issues to society but also that new strategies for increasing young peoples’ interest
and knowledge in science and their ability to use science outside school are needed.
Learning in out-of-school environments is common worldwide. Students get to visit science, natural history, and art
museums. There is much evidence in the research literature that out-of-school learning has many positive impacts on learning
outcomes of various sorts [5]-[7]. Students learn scientific content, develop positive attitudes toward science, interact with
each other while being engaged in learning meaningful things, and gain opportunities to use all senses to experience phenomena
in real-contexts [8]-[9].
B. Arabic Elementary school
The Arab public school system, legally obliged to provide a level of education equal to that offered to Jewish citizens, is
in fact inferior, on average, to the Jewish public school system due, in part, to the unequal budgets and resources allocated by
Israel‘s government. This often creates gaps in knowledge in a range of subjects [10]-[12]. Arab students from Israel also find
it more difficult than their Jewish peers to meet the demands of an academic system that requires critical discourse, as Arab
schools tend to allow less room for expressing opinions and encourage more passive [13]-[14]. Therefore, many Arab students
are at a disadvantage especially relative to their Jewish counterparts. Many of them lack both the cultural capital [15]-[17] and
the type of academic skills required for coping with Western-influenced Israeli culture, making it difficult for them to match

icshge.org
the achievements of their Jewish peers. Henry Giroux asserts that "while the hidden curriculum cannot be entirely eliminated,
its structural properties can be identified and modified" thus enabling the teacher to develop new pedagogical methods [18].
These methods, which Giroux and others identify as critical pedagogy, may partially and temporarily transform the power
relations in class and may develop critical and political consciousness among participants, students and teacher. However,
critical pedagogy, claims Norman Denzin, "requires citizens and citizen-scholars committed to taking risks, persons willing to
act in situations where the outcome cannot be predicted in advance" [19]. Bell hooks has accurately acknowledged the
reluctance of many teachers "to see the classroom change, to allow for shifts in relations between students" between students
and me their teacher [20]. Hooks and Denzin remind me that using methods of critical pedagogy transforms the educational
power structure and if I aspire that my class will contain "persons jointly working together to develop new lines of action, new
stories, new narratives in a collaborative effort," my authority as the class teacher will be threatened [21]. To create these
changes teachers should overcome their fears, work harder, be adventurous, imaginative and spontaneous [22].
III. ACADEMY
A. HIT – Holon Institute of Technology
HIT – Holon Institute of Technology was established in 1969 and became an independent public academic institution of
higher education in 1999, certified by the Council of Higher Education of Israel. HIT focuses on the teaching of sciences,
engineering, computer science and technology, management of technology and design. It also emphasizes multi-disciplinary
theoretical and practical research of innovative technologies from a professional scientific, economic and cultural perspective.
HIT trains highly qualified students in the realms of science, engineering, management and design, and plays an important role
in their integration upon graduation into key positions within the industry. HIT aspires to quality and excellence in teaching
and innovative research, and strives to introduce novel and unique cutting-edge teaching and research technologies. HIT also
prides itself on its advanced academic achievements, application of innovative techniques and interdisciplinary professionalism
that lead to creative teaching and new technologies. HIT aims to utilize the intellectual and professional potential of each and
every student, so that they can fully integrate into the fast-paced technological world of today. Providing superior technological
and scientific education enables HIT graduates to enter key leadership positions in both the private and public sectors.
B. Israeli Hope in the Academia
In the past decades, demographic and cultural changes are reshaping the Israeli society: It changed from a society
constructed of a clear majority and minority to a society that is constructed of four central sectors or "tribes" that resemble in
their size: secular; national-religious; orthodox; Arabs. in the lights of this reality, a transition is needed from the common
perception of "majority and minority" to a new one that is based on partnership between the sectors that construct the Israeli
society. The Israeli president, in coordination with the planning and budgeting committee of the Council for Higher Education
have launched "Israeli Hope in the Academia", since the academia has an essential role in shaping the "new Israeli order". The
project's aim is to base the campuses as spaces for creating shared Israelite society that enables maintaining the unique identity
of each group, to express the talents and excellence of the Israeli society, to promote a united vision of partnership in the
universities and colleges, to develop an Israeli intellectual, social and diverse leadership that is aware and attentive.
C. Faculty of Engineering
The aims and goals of the Faculty of Engineering are to keep the study programs updated to meet the ever-changing
requirements for engineers of the future, enrich the student’s theoretical knowledge as well as teach practical and design skills
and knowledge; provide the students with a rich and comprehensive study program; adapt teaching methodologies and
techniques, focusing on understanding as a goal; enable students to achieve skills such as self-learning and to acquire expertise
via practice; constantly update the teaching methods and the study programs; maintain relationships with the various relevant
industry sectors; introduce the students to state-of-the-art equipment and facilities; promote research in the various fields and
explore cooperation with other institutes in Israel and abroad.
D. Social Involvement Unit at the Dean of Students Office
One of the many goals of the Social Involvement Unit is to promote social involvement of students and staff in the
community. It also promotes under-represented populations at the institute by offering mentoring, tutoring, emotional support,
guidance to learning and adjustment to the academic world. Over the years, the unit has worked in many education and welfare
arenas to promote immigrants, youth, and more. The Social Involvement Unit serves as a professional center to encourage and
promote the social impact of students and staff and to leverage knowledge, expertise, and human capital for the benefit of the
community through social involvement projects and course actions involving meaningful activities.
The action learning course is an academic course which involves academic learning and social activities. The courses
deal with processes and social challenges, reveal different ideologies, and develop critical thinking and pragmatic ideas.
Students receive course credits and a grade for being part of such courses. Participating students enroll in courses that involve
action and activities to engage in the experiential learning process, thereby creating a dialogue and cross-fertilization between
being taught in the classroom, and the experience of reality in the real world [12]. A learning experience includes meeting with
social organizations, institutions, and state authorities and carrying out practical work with diverse populations. Through
experience, students strengthen their academic skills, formulate ethical attitudes toward reality, develop professional and
civilian perspectives, and realize how they can influence their surrounding in the present and the hereafter. HIT’s students

icshge.org
engaged in an action learning course created a dialogue and cross-fertilization between what was being studied in the classroom
and reality. Reddan and Rauchle (2012) found in their study that through the experience, the students strengthened their
academic skills and values, formulated ethical attitudes toward reality, developed a professional and civilian approach [21].
IV. CREATIVE TEACHING APPROACH

Under the guidance and supervision of Dr. Hen Friman, The Holon Institute of Technology has set up an innovative
course which puts together learning of students in the classroom and social doing- passing on material they have learnt to
elementary pupils in an enjoyable way to boost awareness and accessibility to knowledge and information regarding
environmentalism. The ultimate goal was that the young pupils would become “green ambassadors”—children with
environmental awareness. In the frontal part of the course, students got an introduction to the Arabic society and acquired
knowledge on environmental issues, such as ecology, electricity production, air pollution, renewable energy, water sector,
waste and recycling. The students learnt how an effective and enjoyable method of teaching is based on the knowledge acquired
and were divided into working groups. In the practical part of the course (October–November, each group planned, purchased
and built samples and formed a teaching model exemplifying one scientific doctrine studied in the course. The students
presented these enjoyable workshops to the fifth and sixth graders “Alomaria” Ramle school (November–January).
The Israeli Hebrew speaker students' need to teaches Arabic speaker pupils. During meetings held within the school, the
students taught the pupils via games and activities what is soil contamination, how to turn waste into a resource, what energy
conversion and etc. In order to illustrate the topics studied by the pupils, the students used a moveable laboratory containing
demonstrations, experiments and creative activities.
A. Solar energy
Solar energy is clean energy. It produces no hazardous solid, liquid or gas wastes. It does not create water or air pollution.
Direct production of electricity using sunlight is accomplished using photovoltaic cells, also called solar cells. They have no
moving parts and are “clean” energy. A major limitation is cost, which greatly exceeds the cost of producing electricity using
fossil fuels or nuclear power. The best solar cells are only 20% efficient and only provide 50 watts of electricity per square
meter of cell size [8].
The group which engaged in Solar energy set itself a goal to present the pupils the possibility to produce energy in way
which is not polluting the environment. In order to integrate all the pupils and make the activity competitive, the pupils were
required to divide into groups, each one had to start a solar vehicle by a moveable light source (Figure 1). Thus a solar car race
was run in class.
Figure 1. Solar class race. The pupils were asked to start them by a moveable light source.
B. Wind energy
Wind energy has been utilized for thousands of years. The wind is free, commonly available and can provide clean,
pollution-free energy. Today’s wind-turbines are very high tech. In most places, the cost of commercial wind power on a large
scale is not now economically competitive with conventionally generated electricity. One important factor is that with a
doubling of wind speed, power output increases by a factor of 8. The U.S. remains the world leader in wind energy, but Europe
has embarked on a very ambitious wind-power development program. It is predicted that by 2030, wind energy will supply at
least twice the electricity it does now [7].

icshge.org
By working in small groups, pupils learn teamwork, how to give and receive criticism, and how to plan, monitor and
evaluate their individual and joint activities with others. It appears that modern workplaces increasingly require such partial
delegation of authority, group management and co-operative skills.
Figure 2. The pupils were asked to light up with a breath.
C. Waste and Recycling

Another problem in Israel is a solid trash. The Ministry of the Environmental Protection works to reduce the amount of
waste accumulating at landfills. One the best approaches to reduce waste amount is a recycling process, in which appropriate
materials are being removed from the waste stream and used as raw materials for creating new materials. Most recycling in
Israel is carried out in sorting and separation plants. A waste and recycling group of students and pupils had a goal to raise
awareness about the sad situation existing in the country on waste issues with emphasis on the recycling process as the best
solution, which has been found so far to the problem. During the course of the activity, the pupils prepared a page of newspaper
scraps and turned an old tire into an armchair (Figure 3).
Figure 3. The pupils were asked to turned an old tire into an armchair.
D. Soil Contamination
The group responsible for this topic explained the pupils layered structure of the soil. The pupils built a sample of (Pedon
= Soil Profile) and discussed the overall impact of soil pollution, the agriculture, ecology and so on (Figure 4a). The pupils

icshge.org
were challenged to try to sprout beans on a fruitful ground and one on a contaminated soil (Figure 4b). The results were
conclusive. They were presented to the pupils’ parents and siblings.
Figure 4. (a) top – Explains the pupils the layered structure of the soil with the help of a sample (b) bottom – The pupils were asked to carry out at home
sprouting beans on a fruitful ground as opposed to a contaminated soil.
V. METHODOLOGY
The course methodology included “mutual fertilization”; the pupils acquired knowledge while the students got familiar
with the Arab society in an informal and unprejudiced way (Figure 5). All the groups conducted theoretical knowledge lessons
accompanied by a presentation including pictures and videos illustrating the material as well as an enjoyable and significant
part which also comprised of performing scientific experiments in class so as the pupils would internalize the material.
Throughout the activity, the students helped raise the motivation among the pupils. Even with the quietest pupils were
encouraged to ask questions and take an active part in the lesson. The pupils understood the purpose of the course and the
importance of the issues studied. Based on the responses from pupils and teachers at the end of the activity, the students learned
that the pupils are interested in preserving the environment and making a better future for everyone and also to become
ambassadors of preserving the environment even by doing a small things, which turn to be so meaningful, like not leaving

icshge.org
garbage on a picnic and turning the lights off when leaving the room. As a result, pupils had become aware and confident of
their ability to make a significant and a positive change.
Figure 5. The students visited “Al Omariya” school in Ramla. Learned from the school's staff about the Arabic society.
VI. CONCLUSION
In the "Green Ambassadors" course, Israeli Hebrew Speaker Students' Grapples on Environmental Education with Arabic
Speaker Pupils'. The participating students engaged in an experiential learning process that included creating a dialogue and
cross-fertilization between what was being studied in the classroom and reality. Through the experience, students strengthened
their academic skills and values, formulated ethical attitudes toward reality, developed a professional and civilian approach,
and understood how they could affect and influence their surroundings [3, 4, 10]. The results show higher rates of success in
the final questionnaires on lesson and involvement due to an enriching and challenging experience of learning. Thanks to all
these, the pupils turned more aware and learned an important lesson about the ways to preserve the environment.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
We would like to thank the Higher Education Council for budgeting and supporting this course. To the Students who took part
in the course. Last but not least, we want to thank “Al Omariya” School for the opportunity to take a part in the next generation
of education for a better and cleaner environment.
REFERENCES
[1] Bilgen S, Kaygusuz K, Sari A., "Renewable energy for a clean and sustainable future. Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and Environmental
Effects" 2004, 26(12), pp. 1119–29.
[2] Kaltschmitt M, Streicher W, Wiese A. "Renewable Energy Technology and Environment", Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007.
[3] Lyons T. "Different countries same science classes: students’ experiences of school science in their own words" International Journal of Science
Education 2006, 28 (6), pp. 591-613.
[4] Sjøberg S, Schreiner C. "How do learners in different cultures relate to science and technology? Results and perspectives from the project rose (the
relevance of science education)" Asia-Pacific Forum on Science Learning and Teaching 2006, 6(2), pp. 1-17.
[5] Bamberger Y, Tal T. "Multiple outcomes of class visits to natural history museums: The students’ view". Journal of Science Education and Technology
2008, 17, pp. 264–274.
[6] Falk JH, Dierking LD. "Learning from museums: Visitor experiences and the making of meaning. Walnut Creek, CA: AltaMira Press; 2000.
[7] Manwell JF, McGowan JG, Rogeres AL. "Wind energy explained-theory, design and application" Wiley, West Sussex, England; 2003.
[8] Messenger R, Ventre J, Ventre GG. "Photovoltaic Systems Engineering", Taylor & Francis, Inc.; 2003. ISBN: 0849317932
[9] Wenham SR, Green MA, Watt ME, Corkish R. "Applied Photovoltaics", Earthscan/James & James; 2007.ISBN: 1844074013.
[10] Al-Haj, M., "Education among the Arabs in Israel: Control and Social Change". Jerusalem: The Magnes Press. 1996 (Hebrew)
[11] Al-Haj, M. " Higher education among the Arabs in Israel: Formal policy between empowerment and contro"l. Higher Education Policy, 2003, 16, pp.
351–368.
[12] Arar, K. " Israeli education policy since 1948 and the state of Arab education in Israel". Italian Journal of Sociology of Education, 2012, 4(1), pp. 113-
141.
[13] Barak, M. Peleg, R. & Avrahami, M. "Scientific technological education as a focus of the renewal of the Arab-Druze school in Israel". Iyunim B’khinukh
(Studies in Education), 2000, 4 (2), pp.51-76 (Hebrew)
[14] Bourdieu, P. "The forms of capital. In J. Richardson (Ed.) Handbook of Theory and Research for the Sociology of Education", 1986, pp.241-258, New
York, Greenwood.
[15] Denzin, N. "The politics and ethic of performance pedagogy: Toward a pedagogy of hope". In McLaren & Kincheloe (Eds.), 2007, pp. 127-142, New
York: Peter Lang.
[16] Giroux, H. "Teachers as Intellectuals: Towards a Critical Pedagogy of Learning. Westport", 1988, Bergin & Garvey.
[17] Golan-Agnon, D. " Inequality in Education. Tel Aviv, 2004 (Hebrew)
[18] Hooks, b. "Teaching to Transgress: Education as the Practice of Freedom New York" 1994.
[19] Jabareen, Y. and Agbaria A. "Education on Hold: Israeli Government Policy and Civil Society Initiatives to Improve Arab Education in Israel. Dirasat:
The Arab Center for Law and Policy & The Arab Minority Rights Clinic, Faculty of Law" 2011, University of Haifa. Retrieved from http://www.dirasat-
aclp.org/files/Report_Education%20On%20Hold_Jan2011.pdf.
[20] Olneck, M. "Can multicultural education change what counts as cultural capital? American Educational Research Journal, 2000, 37(2), pp.317-348.
[21] Reddan, G.; Rauchle, M." Student perceptions of the value of career development learning to a work-integrated learning course in Exercise Science".
Aust. J. Career Dev. 2012, 21, pp. 38–48.
[22] Friman, H. "The Ecological Garden for environmental education through experiential tools". Negev Dead Sea Arava Stud. 2016, 8, pp. 139–146.

icshge.org
Paris Agreement in Central Europe – The Case of the Visegrad Group

(V4)
Tucki, K.,1,* Botwińska, K.,1 Bączyk, A.,2 and Wielewska, I.3
1
Department of Production Organization and Engineering, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Nowoursynowska str. 164,
02-787 Warsaw, Poland
2
Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Nowoursynowska str. 159, 02-776 Warsaw,
Poland
3
University of Science and Technology in Bydgoszcz, Department of Economics and Advising in Agribusiness, Ks. A.
Kordeckiego str. 20, 85-225 Bydgoszcz, Poland
*
karol_tucki@sggw.pl
Abstract—The Paris Agreement in the context of the struggle to stop climate change has become a breakthrough tool setting
concrete reduction targets. Focuses on implementing the Sustainable Development Goals, and at the same time stopping the
increase in CO2 concentration in the most effective and cheapest way. The main postulate assumes limiting the average
temperature increase on the earth to less than 2 * C in relation to the pre-industrial period. The possibilities of achieving an
ambitious goal are seen in energy efficiency, protection of forest areas and increasing the share of renewable energy sources,
including biofuels. The success of the implementation of the agreement is also perceived in cooperation and integrated actions
of the Member States through a coherent energy policy and actions for environmental protection. The aim of this study was to
analyze the possibility of fulfilling the Paris Agreement by association of four Central European countries: Poland, Czech
Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, known as the Visegrad Group (V4). Based on the review of energy policies of the V4 countries,
it was established that these countries differ significantly in key energy resources. However, the sector with the largest emission
of carbon dioxide, significantly affecting the raising of the average temperature on the ground turned out to be the energy and
heat production sector. The Paris Agreement gives the possibility to implement the adopted 2 * C level by reducing carbon
dioxide emissions by 30% compared to 1990 from the territories of the signatories of the agreement. Having account of the
time horizon up to 2030, probably Poland only will have a problem with reaching the level of reduction of greenhouse gases
by 30%. Other countries have already reached the required level, or will reach it without major problems.
Keywords—Paris Agreement, climate change, Visegrad Group
I. INTRODUCTION
T HE 21st Conference of the Parties (COP 21) is one of the key meetings in the field of climate protection. The international
proceedings that took place at the end of 2015 were a combination of two significant events: the 21st United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference and the 11th meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. The
significance of this debate stems from the fact that its result is a global compromise in the area of climate change suppression
defined as the Paris Agreement. In addition, the adopted pact sets specific goals and defines ways to combat global warming.
In practice, this is the fifth binding document in the field of climate policy after the Climate Convention in Rio de Janeiro, the
Kyoto Protocol and two climate packages (Package 3x20, Package 2021-2030) [1]. The governments of the states acceding to
the agreement have assumed their main objective: it is maintaining the global average temperature increase lower than 2° C,
in relation to the level from before the era of intense industrialization. However, according to the climate change analyses done
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the possibility of maintaining an average temperature increase of
2° C recedes dramatically. Mitigation of climate change requires a significant, consistent and sustainable reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions (mainly carbon dioxide) by all countries. The organization also emphasizes that any delays in taking
measures to reduce emissions will result in significantly higher financial and technological expenditures in the context of
greenhouse gas reduction as well as adaptation to the ongoing climate change [2]. An ambitious plan to limit the increase to
1.5° C was set up, which would significantly reduce the negative effects of global warming [3]. This is the first international
treaty that gives a legal nature to the assumed long-term goal of limiting the temperature rise [4]. The implementation of the
postulates formulated in the Paris climate agreement is possible only through transformation of the economy into a low-carbon
one and following the principles of sustainable development within every economic sector. To date, 176 parties (out of 197)
have ratified the convention. On 5th October 2016, the necessary threshold was reached for the entry into force of the Paris
Agreement. The Convention was officially in force on 4th November 2016, that is, thirty days from the moment when at least
55 parties to the Convention, jointly responsible for at least 55% of total global greenhouse gas emissions, deposited their
instruments of ratification. The meeting of the parties to the adopted climate agreement (CMA 1.1) took place in Marrakesh,
Morocco in 2016. As it was the first meeting after the ratification of the agreement, the main focus was on adopting the
procedures necessary for the functioning of the governing body of the Paris Agreement [5]. The second part of the first session
(CMA 1.2) took place in 2017 in Bonn, and Fiji chaired the meeting. A broader focus was on organizational issues such as the
implementation of the agreement procedures, the organization of work, the status of ratification of the Convention and other
matters related to the further implementation of the Paris Agreement [6]. The third part of the first session (CMA 1.3) is
planned in connection with the 24th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 24) and will take place in Katowice, Poland
in 2018 [7].
The Paris Agreement is undoubtedly one of the breakthrough agreements that form a new dimension of the term "climate
policy". The ambitious goals set by the agreement and the obligations assumed by individual states create an innovative
approach to climate protection issues. It is not only environmental protection but a comprehensive strategy that binds all sectors

icshge.org
of the economy and its entities. It results from the essence of the problem that has been faced in the modern world. Global
warming is complex and therefore requires integrated cooperation in the fields of energy, transport, construction, public
administration and environmental policy in a given country. The European Commission recommends closer cooperation
between the various parties at the international level, in order to exchange scientific knowledge on adaptation to climate change
and information on behaviour and strategy. It was emphasized that combating climate change should remain on the political
lists of priorities of relevant international forums [3].
The Visegrad Group (V4) is one of the examples of strengthening international cooperation in Central Europe
recommended by the European Commission, with respect to the success of the implementation of the Paris Agreement. This
community is a regional form of cooperation between four countries - Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. The
members of the V4 are connected not only by neighbourhood and geopolitical features, but also share a common history,
culture, traditions and religious and intellectual values that they wish to preserve and strengthen [11,12]. The establishment of
the Visegrad Group dates back to 15th February 1991. At that time, the Presidents of Poland, Czechoslovakia and Hungary
signed a declaration in Visegrad (Hungary), thus setting out the objectives and terms of cooperation of the participating parties.
The V4 group was not an alternative to the already existing pan-European integration of states. The aspiration of all its member
states was the accession to the structures of the European Union. The accession to the European Community was seen as the
next stage in the process of pan-European integration and overcoming political divisions in Europe. This goal was eventually
achieved on 1st May 2004, when all the countries of the V4 Group became members of the European Union. Since then, the
V4 has been a forum for exchanging experiences as well as defining common opinions, important from the point of view of
the region represented [8]. The cooperation within the Visegrad Group focuses on strengthening stability in Central Europe,
increasing information transfer, cooperation in the field of education, culture and opportunities to exchange school and college
students [9]. The Visegrad cooperation engages numerous entities of the V4 states as well as representatives of authorities,
government institutions and non-governmental organizations, research centres, universities and cultural institutions. The
chairmanship is regulated by a one-year rotation mechanism for each member country, while the leadership program is adopted
by respective prime ministers.
The Paris Agreement assumes the effective implementation of the agreement through the development of low-carbon
technologies based on renewable energy sources and the increase of energy efficiency between the parties to the agreement.
On the other hand, one of the objectives in the common integrated activities of the V4 Group is to strengthen energy security,
develop transport infrastructure and exchange scientific experience and conduct common research within the Group [8,10].
Moreover, Poland will soon host the next part of the COP 24 climate summit which will be held in Katowice, where the legal
frameworks for the implementation of the Paris Agreement will be drawn and adopted, together with specific actions which
will enable the achievement of the sustainable development goals adopted by the United Nations in September 2015. Bearing
in mind the above, it was decided to analyze the energy and climate policies of the members of the Visegrad Group in order
to assess the capabilities of meeting the adopted postulates in the perspective of the upcoming summit.
II. REVIEW OF ENERGY POLICIES OF MEMBER COUNTRIES OF THE VISEGRAD GROUP

A. Poland
The energy sector in Poland is mainly based on fossil fuels. By far, the dominant raw material is coal (hard coal and
lignite), which accounts for 79% of energy production and 51% of the total primary energy supply (TPES). Most of the coal
(71%) is used to produce heat and electricity. In recent decades, raw materials such as oil and natural gas have increased their
share. Crude oil is the second largest source of energy from TPES at 24%. However, its domestic production is small, and
Poland is dependent on the import of this raw material. The third largest source of energy is natural gas, whose total supply of
primary energy is 15%, of which one third comes from domestic production and the rest is imported. Renewable energy sources
are responsible for 10% of the total primary energy supply and 13% of electricity. Poland does not use nuclear energy, however,
a scenario of using atomic energy in the energy outlook for the coming years is taken into account. The largest energy
consumers in Poland include the industrial and residential sectors (about 30% of total final consumption (TFC)), followed by
transport and services (trade sector) [13, 14].
1) Renewable energy sources
The share of renewable energy sources in the Polish energy market has increased significantly since the 1990’s. Biofuels
and biomass have the largest share in the national renewable energy structure. In 2015, they reached the level of 8.5 million
tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) of the total primary energy supply. The second largest source is wind energy, from which 0.93
Mtoe was reached in 2015. Although wind is only 1% of TPES, it has a larger share in electricity production than biofuels and
biomass (6.6% to 6.1%). Another source is the energy of water, which translated into energy production at 0.2 Mtoe (1.1% of
electricity production). The last place in the structure of the Polish renewable energy sector was solar energy with production
at the level of 0.02 Mtoe (0.04% of electricity production) in 2015 [13.14].
2) Energy efficiency
The total final consumption of energy over the last decade has increased. However, in the period between 2010 and 2014,
there was a 6% drop in TFC, which indicates a decreasing energy intensity. Depending on the sectors, trends of energy
consumption vary, but the final balance indicates an increase in energy efficiency. Poland has implemented the main
requirements of the Energy Efficiency Directive of 2012 (EED) (2012/27/EU), by adopting the Energy Efficiency Act, which
was updated on 20th May 2016. The requirements set out in the Act include an energy saving system for energy companies

icshge.org
and other measures resulting in 1.5% savings annually, from 2014 to 2020. One of the most important tools for achieving the
goals in efficiency improvement is the ‘white certificate system’ (WCS) introduced in 2013. In Poland, there is also a national
action plan with sectoral programs whose aim is to support and promote activities to improve energy efficiency. The National
Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management (NFOŚiGW) possesses financial resources to be allocated for the
implementation of energy efficiency in public and private construction. The fund also provides a national energy advisory
system at the regional and local levels [13,14].
3) Structure of CO2 emissions and climate policy
In Poland, the energy sector, which is responsible for energy and heat production, is the one from which the largest
emission of carbon dioxide is generated. In 2014, more than half of CO2 emissions came from the power industry (148.3
MtCO2-eq). This is due to the wide use of fossil fuels, mainly coal. The second largest emitter is transport, which brought an
emission of 43.7 MtCO2-eq in 2014. From 2004 to 2014, a 36% increase in CO2 emissions in this sector was recorded. The
housing sector was in the third place, with an emission of 34.2 MtCO2-eq recorded in 2014. The industry and construction
sectors were responsible for 28.7 MtCO2-eq, which corresponded to 10% of total emissions. The commercial sector and other
energy industries have a small share.
Poland possesses the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (NAS 2020), which defines the goals and directions
of adaptation activities in the field of climate change and indicates vulnerable sectors and areas by 2020. Poland also announced
the Energy and Environment Safety Strategy (ESE) in 2014, which sets out the key reforms and necessary steps for cleaner
energy and energy security by 2020. The document calls for measures to improve the environment, including a reduction in
air pollution. The government plans to intensify work on carbon dioxide storage technologies and coal gasification, which will
probably remain the main source of energy in the country [13,14].
The list of particular values for Poland for 2015 (Figure 1) includes a breakdown into: TPES subdivided into raw
materials, CO2 emissions broken down by sector, share of renewable energy sources by individual sources, and changes in
TFC from 1990 to 2016 in the context of energy efficiency.
60% tpes renewable

55% 51% (raw materials)
53.1% CO2 emission
by sectors energy energy efficiency tfc value in years
sources [Mtoe]
50%
45% 69
40%
35% 66.32 66.65
30% 67
24%
25% 64.73 63.26
20% 15% 15.7% 65
15% 10% 10.3%
10% 6.2% 8% 61.43
63
2.5% 2% 1% 64.43
5% 62.33
0% 61
61.56
59
57
57.77
55
1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Figure 1. Summary of TPES values for Poland for raw materials, CO2 emissions for sectors, share of renewable energy sources in 2015 and changes in TFC
from 1990 to 2016 in the context of energy efficiency. [author’s own study based on 13, 14, 15].
B. The Czech Republic

In the Czech Republic, the dominant source of energy is also coal, accounting for approx. 39% of the total primary energy
supply (TPES). The second place in this structure is oil, from which energy was at the level of 8.5 Mtoe, or 20% of TPES in
2015. Nuclear energy plays an important role in the Czech energy system, and took the third place in energy supply with a
result of 17% of TPES in 2015 as well as natural gas, which accounted for 15% of total supply. It is expected that the share of
crude oil will decrease by approx. 15% TPES in the next 25 years, while the share of natural gas will see an increase by
between 18% and 25%. The state’s energy policy stipulates gradual replacement of fossil fuels (mainly coal) with nuclear
energy, which will favourably affect the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. By 2040, government projects assume the
share of nuclear energy from 25% to 33% of TPES. Renewable energy sources, mainly biomass and biofuels, account for
approx. 9% of the total primary energy supply. Industry is the sector with the largest energy consumption. In 2014, 39% of
total final consumption (TFC) was recorded in the sector of industry (9.7 Mtoe). The second largest consumer is transport, in
which the amount of energy consumption in 2014 was 23.6% TFC, and the third - housing sector (5.7 Mtoe, corresponding to
22.8% TFC). The commercial sector and public services (including agriculture) absorb 14.6% TFC, or 3.6 Mtoe [16.17].
Renewable energy in the Czech Republic in 2015 reached the level of 3.8 Mtoe, or 9.4% of TPES. The dominant

icshge.org
renewable energy sources are biomass and biofuels, which accounted for 8.6% of TPES (3.5 Mtoe). Other renewable sources,
such as solar energy, water energy and wind energy took marginal positions with a share of 0.5%, 0.2% and 0.1% of TPES
respectively. There is no production of energy from geothermal sources in the country, however, there is ongoing research in
this source of energy acquisition [16,17].
From 2004 to 2014, a decrease in the total final energy consumption by about 11% was observed. In the most energy
intensive sector, which is industry, the trend of energy consumption was declining during this period (-16.9%). Within ten
years, the structure of demand for individual raw materials has also changed to the benefit of renewable raw materials (+ 75.1%
TFC for biomass and biofuels).
The Czech Republic follows the European guidelines and introduces into its energy policy provisions aimed at supporting
and improving energy efficiency in the country. The state’s energy policy places a strong emphasis on increasing total energy
efficiency in all sectors of the economy. The adopted target was the level of efficiency increase of 20% by 2020 and further
increase of energy efficiency in order to reduce energy intensity and average energy consumption per capita below the EU
Member States average. Amongst the most important documents, the Czech Republic possesses a National Action Plan for
Energy Efficiency, which sets out specific quantitative goals for energy savings, and the State Program for Supporting Energy
Saving and Renewable Energy Use (EFEKT), which promotes energy efficiency and the use of secondary and renewable
sources energy through financial support [16, 17].
The emission of carbon dioxide from the Czech Republic in 2014 amounted to 96.6 million tons. The main emitter, as
in the case of Poland, is the energy sector from which 56.1% of emissions originate. The next ones are: transport (17%),
manufacturing industry and construction (14%) and housing and services (10.4% of total emissions). Since 1990, there has
been a general decrease in carbon dioxide emissions, caused by the promotion of cleaner energy sources.
In the Czech Republic, there is the National Environmental Policy (SEnvP) for 2012-2020, which establishes the scope
of environmental protection. Emphasis is put on effective use of resources and minimization of negative anthropogenic
activities. The most important problems were identified in the policy along with the time horizon of their solving. Until 2012
there was a national emission allocation plan (NAIP), which regulated carbon dioxide emission allowances. Currently, the
system operates on the basis of the EU - ETS mechanism. National allocation plans are no longer required; instead, one pan-
European ETS limit applies. The Czech Republic also has a National Program for Counteracting the Effects of Climate Change,
which includes a climate protection strategy. This document contains 23 main actions in problem areas such as transport,
industry, agriculture and housing [16,17].
The list of particular values for the Czech Republic for 2014 (Figure 2) includes: TPES subdivided into raw materials,
CO2 emissions broken down by sector, share of renewable energy sources by individual sources, and changes in TFC from
1990 to 2016 in the context of energy efficiency.
60% 56% renewable

55% tpes CO2 emission
energy energy efficiency tfc value in years
by sectors
(raw materials) sources [Mtoe]
50%
45% 39% 35 32.7
40%
35% 33
30% 31
25% 20% 17%
20% 17%
15% 29
14%
15% 10% 27
10%
9% 9% 25.4 24.6
0.5% 24.3 24.2
5% 2%
0.2% 0.1% 25
0% 23 25.1 24.8
24.5
23.6
21
19
17
15
1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Figure 2. Summary of TPES values for the Czech Republic for raw materials, CO2 emissions for sectors, share of renewable energy sources in 2014 and
changes in TFC from 1990 to 2016 in the context of energy efficiency. [author’s own study based on 15,16,17].
C. Hungary
The Hungarian energy system differs significantly from the two previously considered. In 2015, the total primary energy
supply was at the level of 25.2 Mtoe, of which natural gas (29.7% TPES) and crude oil (27.2% TPES) had the largest share.
The third largest source is nuclear power (16.4% TPES) which is the leader in electricity production in the country. Biofuels
and biomass account for 11.7% of TPES, while coal – so popular in previous countries – constitutes only 9.3% of the primary

icshge.org
energy supply. The remaining renewable energy sources amount to only about 1% of TPES. The most energy intensive sectors
are industry and housing, which account for over 60% of total energy consumption (31.6% and 31.5% respectively). The third
sector, in terms of energy consumption, is transport, which accounts for 22.3% of TFC. 14.7% of TFC is the services sector,
including agriculture [18, 19].
For ten years, there has been an increase in renewable energy sources in the energy system. The main factor responsible
for this increase is the increased use of biomass for the production of heat and energy. In 2015, biomass and biofuels accounted
for 11.7 of TPES and 7.6% of electricity production. Other renewable resources, such as geothermal, sun, wind or water energy,
had a negligible share in the energy market, making up 1% of the total primary energy supply [18, 19].
2) Energetic efficiency
In the last decade, a decrease in final energy consumption could be observed, despite increases in energy intensity in the
housing sector. Residential and commercial sectors combined account for 46% of TFC, but energy consumption has decreased
thanks to measures to improve energy efficiency in construction. Energy consumption in industry and transport has increased
in recent years. In order to improve energy efficiency, the Hungarian energy strategy and the national action plan for energy
efficiency were developed. Hungary also has financial support programs where one of the priorities is to reduce energy
intensity. The important programs, in terms of improving energy efficiency include: the green economy financing program
(GEFS) and the operational program in the field of environment and energy efficiency (EEEOP) [18, 19].
The emission of carbon dioxide from Hungary was 42.5 MtCO2 in 2015. Greenhouse gas emissions have decreased
significantly as a result of the transformation in the economic and energy sectors, in the form of reduced consumption of fossil
fuels. The largest emission of carbon dioxide comes from the transport sector (28.1%). The energy sector provides 27.9% of
emitted carbon dioxide. The third sector in terms of emissivity is housing (15.8%). Industry is responsible for 14.9% of
emissions, while services are around 11%. The Hungarian climate policy is closely linked to the targets imposed by the
European Union. The basic document is the current version of the National Strategy on Climate Change (NCCS II). This
document contains the objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the amount of 16% to 25% in 2025. It also obliges
the government to create the necessary legal regulations that would be conducive to the adopted objectives and adaptation of
financial mechanisms that serve to increase public awareness of sustainable development. The residential sector has been given
a major priority. Due to the high share of emissions from the transport sector, the National Transport Strategy (NTS) was
developed, which focuses its activities on the area of broadly understood mobility. It sets targets for increasing the number of
transport means with low levels of greenhouse gas emissions and obliges to increase the share of biofuels in the sector. It also
indicates the need to share electricity and hydrogen sources in overall energy consumption. Hungary also uses ETS emissions
trading systems, the revenues from which are used to finance emission reduction support schemes [18, 19].
30.0% 27.2% 28.1% CO2 renewable

tpes 27.9% emission by energy energy efficiency tfc value in years [Mtoe]
(raw sectors sources
25.0% materials)
21
20.0% 15.8%
16.4% 19.9
14.9% 20
15.0% 12.7%
11.0% 11.7%
9.3%
10.0% 19
4.7% 17.9
5.0% 18
0.4% 0.2% 17.4
0.1% 17.5
0.3%
0.0% 16.6
17 17.4
16.2
16
16.1 16.5
15
1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Figure 3. Summary of TPES values for Hungary for raw materials, CO2 emissions for sectors, share of renewable energy sources in 2015 and changes in
TFC from 1990 to 2016 in the context of energy efficiency [author’s own study based on 15, 18, 19].
The list of particular values for Hungary for 2014 (Figure 3) includes a breakdown into: TPES subdivided into raw
materials, CO2 emissions broken down by sector, share of renewable energy sources by individual sources, and changes in
TFC from 1990 to 2016 in the context of energy efficiency.

icshge.org
D. Slovakia
The Slovak energy system is dominated by nuclear energy and natural gas with TPES at around 24%. In 2016, energy
consumption was at the level of 16.5 Mtoe of the total primary energy supply. Next, energy is produced from crude oil (22%
TPES) and coal (19% TPES) processing About 10% is attributable to renewable energy sources, of which biofuels dominate
with a total supply ratio of 8%. The other 2% of TPES is water energy. The sector with the highest energy intensity is industry,
with the total energy consumption of about 4 Mtoe. Subsequently, transport (about 2.5 Mtoe TFC) and the housing sector
(about 2.3 Mtoe) can be distinguished. Services with energy intensity of around 1.5 Mtoe occupy the last place in the energy
intensity structure [20-21].
About 11% of the total primary energy supply is met from renewable energy sources. The sources of the largest share are
currently biomass and biofuels (8% TPES). Biomass is perceived as the source with the highest potential for heat and
electricity, while biofuels are the most advantageous alternative to fossil fuels in transport. Water energy is subsequent with
2% TPES indicator. Other renewable sources have a negligible share and are not mentioned in public statistics [20-21].
Since 2002, a clear decrease in energy consumption (by approx. 14%) could be observed. This is the effect of
implementing modern production, as well as less energy intense technologies. Although industry is the sector with the highest
energy consumption, a certain decrease in energy intensity can be seen since 2009. The steady downward trend is visible for
the housing sector (approx. 30%). Instead, energy consumption increased in the transport sector (by approx. 18%).
Following the European policy in the field of energy efficiency, Slovakia focuses on several priority areas, among others:
increasing efficiency of the CHP plants, reducing transmission and distribution losses (especially electricity, gas and heat),
improving efficiency of electricity production from hydroelectric plants. In the housing sector, emphasis is placed on:
information campaigns and legal regulations regarding energy performance for building components and equipment, including
regular inspections of air conditioners and heating devices. Goals and broader assumptions in the field of energy efficiency
improvement are listed in the document called Energy Policy of the Slovak Republic [20-21].
E. Structure of CO2 emissions and climate policy
In 2014, the value of carbon dioxide emissions in the area of Slovakia was at the level of approx. 33.5 Mtoe CO2. The
sector with the largest CO2 emission was energy production responsible for 50% of emissions. The industry sector was
responsible for 23%. 16% of emitted carbon dioxide originated from transport, 7% of emissions resulted from agriculture and
4% from waste.
60% 56% renewable

55%
tpes
(raw materials)
CO2 emission
by sectors
energy energy efficiency tfc value in years [Mtoe]
sources
50%
45% 39% 17
40%
35% 16
30% 15.2
25% 20% 17% 15
20% 17%15%
14%
15% 9% 10% 9%
14
10% 0.5%
2% 13
5% 0.2% 0.1%
0%
12 11.5
10.8 10.6
11
10.1
10 11
10.3 10 10.4
9
1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Figure 4. Summary of TPES values for Slovakia for raw materials, CO2 emissions for sectors, share of renewable energy sources in 2015 and changes in
TFC from 1990 to 2016 in the context of energy efficiency. [author’s own study based on 15, 20, 21].
Slovakia has an energy policy for the Slovak Republic (energy policy) which defines the main objectives and priorities
of the energy sector until 2035. Its aim is to ensure the stability of the Slovak energy sector in order to contribute to the
sustainable growth of the national economy and its competitiveness. It also strongly emphasizes the issues of environmental
protection and the fulfilment of obligations assumed by European climate packages. Support for reducing greenhouse gas
emissions is also the Strategy for adapting the Slovak Republic to the negative effects of climate change, which is a set of
adaptation measures to solve climate change-related problems [20-21].
The list of particular values for Slovakia for 2016 includes a breakdown into: TPES subdivided into raw materials, CO2
emissions broken down by sector, share of renewable energy sources by individual sources, and changes in TFC from 1990 to
2016 in the context of energy efficiency.

icshge.org
III. REDUCTION POSSIBILITIES – DATA ANALYSIS

In order to meet the ambitious goal of maintaining the average global temperature increase below 2° C, intermediate goals
should be achieved, including a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 40% by 2030 in relation to 1990 levels. This is the
total optimal reduction rate. Only joint integrated actions will allow to achieve the desired level of emissions, so this threshold
can be accepted as a guideline for every party to the Paris Agreement. In further considerations, the value of reducing CO2
emissions by 40% in relation to the reference year was adopted and the possibilities of reaching this threshold for particular
Visegrad Group member states were analyzed.
A. Poland
The level of carbon dioxide emission in 1990 is estimated at 474 Mt-eq CO2, whereas in 2014 this value was 382 Mt-eq
CO2 [23]. A 19% decrease in emissions was achieved, compared to the reference year. In order to achieve 40% reductions
from the Paris Agreement, carbon dioxide emissions from Poland should amount to 284.4 MtCO2 in 2030. Until now, Poland
has pursued its reduction policy based on the objectives set by energy and climate packages in the scope of reducing carbon
dioxide emissions, increasing energy efficiency and renewable energy sources. According to the report by McKinsey &
Company entitled “Assessment of the Potential for the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction in Poland by 2030”, there is a
possibility to reduce CO2 emissions in Poland at the level of 31% in relation to the reference year (2005). The report emphasizes
that Poland has the potential to significantly reduce emissions, but achieving its satisfactory level will be a challenge for the
Polish government, business and society. It is assumed that the share of low-emission energy sources will increase to over
50% of the total electricity supply. In addition, a significant improvement is required in the energy efficiency of buildings and
transport. An increase in the pace of reduction is expected only after 2020, when large electrical power projects (wind farms,
nuclear power plants or carbon dioxide capture installations) will start to be implemented [22]. In the area of primary energy
demand in 2030, an increase of approx. 20% is expected. The structure of energy carriers predicts the emergence of nuclear
energy from 2020, however, hard coal will still remain the basic raw material. The structure of sectors in terms of carbon
dioxide emission will not change – the industry sector will still remain the most emissive one.
In the field of renewable energy sources, a 20% share of RES in the final energy structure is considered impossible to
implement due to the limited potential and high costs of energy generation. Only the consumption of biofuels and
biocomponents in the transport sector will reach the level of 10% in 2020 and will remain at this level until 2030 [24, 25].
B. The Czech Republic
In the Czech Republic, the value of carbon dioxide emissions in 1990 was at the level of 196 Mt-eq CO2. For comparison,
this emission amounted to 125 Mt-eq CO2 in 2014 [23], translating into a 36% reduction in this emission. The general drop in
emissions since 1990 is the result of a drop in emissions from the manufacturing and construction sectors. The use of hard coal
and crude oil also decreased, while the increase in biogas consumption was due to its cost-effectiveness. The Czech Republic
has a relatively high capacity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through modernization of decommissioned coal-fired power
plants. Geographical conditions, however, do affect the reduction of the potential of renewable energy sources such as solar
or wind energy. Despite quite a good result in reducing emissions since 1990, the climate protection policy in the Czech
Republic sets further ambitious targets and defines the means to meet them. It is expected, among others, to increase the share
of nuclear energy and renewable energy sources, as well as to increase energy efficiency. It can therefore be assumed that the
objective of reducing emissions by 40%, compared to the reference year 1990, will be achieved by 2030.
C. Hungary
Carbon dioxide emission in 1990 amounted to 95 Mt-eq CO2, whereas in 2014 the emission level was 58 Mt-eq CO2 [23].
It is therefore possible to adopt a CO2 reduction of around 39%. In order to reach the level required by the Paris Agreement,
the emission value should amount to 57 Mt-eq CO2. As can be seen, the threshold value of emissions to be limited is so small
that it will have been easily achieved by 2030. The level of emissions from Hungary was effectively limited by the installation
of the nuclear power plant in the city of Paks in 1983-87, which virtually completely replaced coal-fired power plants. At the
beginning of the 1990’s, there was also a significant drop in industrial activity, which affected the reduction of direct emissions
from the industry sector as well as indirect ones related to the use of energy and heat. In addition, the increase in the share of
renewable energy sources has contributed to the reduction of greenhouse gases emitted from the territory of Hungary. The
country is still taking steps to limit harmful emissions, including transport. The National Greenhouse Gas Data Base is also
planned to be available in 2018.
D. Slovakia
In Slovakia, CO2 emissions amounted to 75 Mt-eq CO2 in 1990, while in 2014 - 41 Mt-eq CO2 [23], which means that
Slovakia has already achieved a level of emission reduction higher than that required by the Paris Agreement (around 55%).
This results from the structure of energy sources, where mainly nuclear energy and natural gas are used – the raw materials
with low emissivity. However, the energy policy of the Slovak Republic does not stop its efforts to protect the climate and
increase efficiency in the energy sector. Three scenarios for the development of the energy policy are planned: high, reference
and savings. By adopting a reference scenario, the final energy consumption in 2030 will increase by about 2.5% (compared
to 2015). The source of energy with the highest consumption will be nuclear energy, the use of which will increase by approx.
30%, the runner-up in terms of consumption will be natural gas (about 9% increase compared to 2015). The share of renewable
energy sources in the general energy market will increase by about 50% (in relation to 2015). It is planned to reach a level of

icshge.org
approximately 10% of renewable sources in the transport sector. Table 1 presents individual levels of CO2 emissions and target
values necessary to achieve, resulting from the demands of the Paris Agreement.
TABLE I
SUMMARY OF INDIVIDUAL CO2 EMISSION VALUES IN THE VISEGRAD GROUP MEMBER STATES
Level of CO2 emission in the V4 Member States [Mt –eq]
Year Poland Czech Republic Hungary Slovakia
1990 474 196 95 75
2014 382 125 58 41
2030* 284,4 117,6 57 45
to reduce 97,6 7,4 1 -4

Source: author’s own study based on [23]
IV. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

The Paris Agreement is a breakthrough document that sets specific and ambitious goals for the Parties that have agreed
to join the Convention. It recommends cooperation between individual Member States to improve the climate. This aspect was
the motivation to analyze the possibility of implementing the provisions of the agreement by the Visegrad Group (V4) existing
in Central Europe. This paper analyses the energy policies of the V4 Group member states (Poland, the Czech Republic,
Hungary and Slovakia), including the level of energy efficiency, the share of renewable energy sources, climate policy and
carbon dioxide emissions. Next, the CO2 reduction achieved since 1990 was determined and the remaining emission volume
was estimated to be achieved by 2030 to fulfil the provisions of the Paris Agreement. The following conclusions were made
on the basis of the analyses:
 In the analyzed group, there was a significant disproportion between Poland and other states in terms of reducing carbon
dioxide emissions since 1990.
 Slovakia and Hungary are countries in which they have already achieved the required convention, the level of emission
reduction (in comparison to the reference year).
 In the case of the Czech Republic in 2014, there was a shortage of approx. 4% emission reduction for the implementation
of the assumptions adopted by the agreement. Bearing in mind the current Czech strategy, this level will be reached by
2030.
 Considering the possible scenarios for Poland, the objective of reducing emissions at 40% by 2030 may be difficult to
achieve.
 It can be concluded that 3 out of 4 countries will fulfil the postulate of the Paris Agreement on the level of reduction of
carbon dioxide emissions by 2030.
The disparities in the possibilities of reducing carbon dioxide emissions in the case of Poland are caused by various
factors. The main issue is the basic raw material used in energy production. It is hard coal whose emissivity coefficients are
among the highest. Also, the technical structure of the power industry is not properly adapted to the functional needs and
requirements of the recipients. This applies to both generation capacity and transmission networks. The systems are outdated
and of low energy efficiency. Problems are also caused by legislation, which, in many cases, is imprecise or simply lacking.
Despite the significant potential of renewable energy in the Polish energy system, its use is small (compared to other European
countries). A significant increase in emissions occurred in the transport sector due to an increase in the number of vehicles on
the roads. Poland has adopted a goal to improve the transport sector, among others through electric vehicles, even a law on
electro-mobility and alternative fuels was adopted, however the effects of its implementation will come with time [26].
REFERENCES
[1] Olkuski, T., Piwowarczyk-Ściebura, K., Brożek, A., The impact of the Paris Agreement and the EU ETS system on the coal market, Scientific Papers
of the Institute of Natural Resources and Energy Management of PAN No. 98, pp 91-101, 2017.
[2] IPCC. Climate change 2014: Synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2014.
[3] European Commission, The Road from Paris: Assessing the implications of the Paris Agreement and accompanying the proposal for a Council
decision on the signing, on behalf of the European Union, of the Paris Agreement adopted under the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change, 2.3.2016 COM 110 final, Brussels, 2016.
[4] Gao, Y., Gao, X., & Zhang, X., The 2° C Global Temperature Target and the Evolution of the Long-Term Goal of Addressing Climate Change -
From the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to the Paris Agreement, Engineering, No. 3(2), pp 272-278, 2017.
[5] FCCC, UN, Report of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement on the first part of its first session,
held in Marrakech from 15 to 18 November 2016, 2017.
[6] UN, CMA 1.2 adopted agenda, Germany, 2017
[7] UN, CCS, Progress tracker - Work programme resulting from the relevant requests contained in decision 1/CP.21, 2018.
[8] Gubik, A. S., Wach, K., (2014). International Entrepreneurship and Corporate Growth in Visegrad Countries, University of Miskolc, 2014.
[9] Brokešová, Z., Pastoráková, E., & Ondruška, T. (2014). Determinants of insurance industry development in transition economies: Empirical analysis
of Visegrad Group data, The Geneva papers on risk and insurance-issues and practice, No. 39(3), pp 471-492, 2014.
[10] Gałaś, S., Gałaś, A., Zeleňáková, M., Zvijáková, L., Fialová, J., & Kubíčková, H., Environmental impact assessment in the Visegrad group countries,
Environmental Impact Assessment Review, No. 55, pp 11-20, 2015.

icshge.org
[11] Dorożyński, T., Kuna-Marszałek, A., Investments Attractiveness. The Case of the Visegrad Group Countries. Comparative Economic Research, No.
19(1), pp 119-140, 2016.
[12] Fawn, R., Visegrad: Fit for purpose? Communist and Post-Communist Studies,
No. 46(3), pp 339-349, 2013.
[13] IEA, Energy Policies of IEA Countries Poland 2016 Review, OECD/IEA, 2017.
[14] IEA, Poland - Energy System Overview, http://www.iea.org/media/countries/Poland.pdf, 2017.
[15] Final energy consumption Million tonnes of oil equivalent (TOE) 2018. Eurostat,
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/web/_download/Eurostat_Table_t2020_34PDFDesc_f1ed10d6-8777-45a8-ad55-f6f88481e636.pdf, (access
21.07.2018).
[16] IEA, Energy Policies of IEA Countries 2016 Czech Republic Review, OECD/IEA, 2017.
[17] IEA, Czech Republic - Energy System Overview, https://www.iea.org/media/countries/CzechRepublic.pdf, 2017.
[18] IEA, Energy Policies of IEA Countries 2017 Review, Hungary OECD/IEA, 2017.
[19] IEA, Hungary - Energy System Overview, https://www.iea.org/media/countries/Hungary.pdf, 2017.
[20] MH SR, Návrh Energetickej politiky Slovenskej republiky - nové znenie, No. 16353/2014-1000-48233, 2014.
[21] IEA, Slovak Republic - Energy System Overview, https://www.iea.org/media/countries/Slovakia.pdf, 2017.
[22] Mc Kinsey & Company, Report: Assessment of the potential for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in Poland by 2030 – Summary, Warsaw,
2009.
[23] Kijewska, A., Bluszcz. A., An analysis of the levels of the carbon footprint for the world and EU member states, Systems for Support in Production
Engineering, No. 6, 2017.
[24] MG, A forecast demand for fuels and energy by 2030, Appendix 2 to “The energy policy of Poland by 2030”, Warsaw, 2009.
[25] Duda, M., Mikołajuk, H. and Stanisław Okrasa, H., The forecast of Poland's energy balance by 2030, Materials of the 23rd Conference from the series
Energy and energy resource issues in the national economy. Dilemmas of Polish energy policy, Zakopane, 2009.
[26] Towards Eco-Development, Institute, Alternative energy policy of Poland by 2030. Warsaw, 2009.

icshge.org
Adaptive re-use in environmentally sustainable interior design model

Celadyn, M.
Faculty of Interior Design, Academy of Fine Arts in Krakow, Krakow, Poland; mceladyn@asp.krakow.pl
Abstract—The paper discusses the problems concerning the modifications of interior design methodology employed during
the design process as being substantial for the realization of strategies of environmental sustainability in the design of indoor
spaces. Effective management of solid waste produced in the result of repetitive construction, deconstruction and demolition
phases of components within interior environment is recognized as one of the main methods enabling the meeting of
sustainable design requirement regarding the conservation of natural resources and energy savings. Meanwhile, the issues
related to the end-of-life phases of indoor environment, as well as its constitutive and complementing components, are still
insufficiently recognized by interior designers or appropriately highlighted in the currently executed design schemes. The
proposed design model referred to as adaptive reuse of reclaimed or salvaged building materials and products in the structure
of interior components, recognized as an innovative design method situated at the core of environmentally responsible interior
design, can put in practice the fulfilment of demand for the implementing circular design methods and techniques. To achieve
this objective, the integration of resources management strategy into the interior design scheme supported by designers’
knowledge on sustainable practices, as well as, consideration of components’ environmental contextualization as decisive
design quality criteria, remain the crucial factors. The main purpose of this concept paper is to develop a theoretical framework
for systemic inclusion of adaptive re-use concept into the interior components’ design process, and to identify main barriers
preventing the successful implementation of the adaptive reuse design concept by designers in their project.
Keywords—environmentally responsible interior design, environmental contextualization, interior components, adaptive
reuse, resources management
I. INTRODUCTION
T HE use of reclaimed building materials and products should be treated as the supporting method for the reduction of
construction and demolition waste [Akadiri, Chinyio and Olomolaiye, 2012 1] and their efficient management, thus
responding to the environmental ethical questions that are to be addressed by conscious interior designers from planning,
programming through the concept and development of designs phases of the project procedure. The process of slowing
resources loop concluded with the accomplishment of closed loop, postulated by McDonough and Braungart [2002], could be
maintained by a consequently and broadly applied adaptive reuse concept into the building internal environment components’
design methodology. This model meets the environmentally sustainable demand for waste minimization, as well as, an
effective management of solid waste, which are produced in the result of cyclical construction, deconstruction and demolition
practices associated with making and transforming the built environment.
The concept of building recognized as “several layers of longevity of built components” introduced by Duffy [1998 3],
and developed by Brand [1994 4], distinguishes respectively the structure, skin, services, space plan, stuff as separate
components of built environment that should be designed with regard to the consequences of their influence on the whole man-
made environment performance. These interconnected and interdependent parts characterized by different change rates, should
be conceived within the spatial, structural and temporal contexts, which are to enable these main systems adaptation to new
functional or spatial requirements with control over the material and products consumption, as well as, energy usage.
Consideration of the entire lifespan of a building, supported by the life-cycle assessment (LCA) method being an essential
imperative for the design for sustainable interior environment model, is an incentive for contextual changes in design. The
temporal context of a building and its internal spaces influences the design decision making process with regard to the potential
repetitive remodeling processes concerning building structural components or interior environment, due to the changing of
functional or formal requirements. These procedures related to refurbishment, modification or adaptation cause in majority of
cases the formation of deconstructed, dismantled, removed or demolished components. These are becoming the vast reservoir
of building materials and products, differing in quality, value, physical parameters, as well as, a range of possible areas of
reintroduction into the built environment structures.
The issues related to the extension of lifespan, and subsequently occurring the end-of-life phase of a building, as well as
its structural components, are still insufficiently recognized [Thomsen, Schultmann and Kohler, 2011 5] by interior designers.
Meanwhile, according to many conducted surveys, the repeated processes of construction, refurbishment or demolition within
the building structure, remain the primary source of waste of resources [McMullan, 2012 6, Ali, Badinelli, and Jones, 2013 7].
Within this typology, the demolition as an undifferentiated process of taking apart and compressing building components to
finally disposed the waste at landfill [Thomsen, Schultmann and Kohler, 2011 5], should be considered as the most unfavorable
and destructive procedure for the natural environment.
Waste management hierarchy or nR-step model is the widely recognized efficient resources management strategy that
applied into the overall interior design process can prevent the excessive waste production as related to the object’s completion
and its further operation. The environmentally conscious design approach started with the design for reduce, and ended with
design for recycling in consequence enabling control over the negative environmental impact of building activities. Between
the prevention from the construction waste production, as the most favored and effective method, although almost impossible
to be realized by designers, and the disposal of waste in the landfill, as the most destructive to the natural environment and still
being practiced, are many effective design methods and techniques to be introduced; these include design for repair,

icshge.org
replacement, or remake. The objective of their application is the exploitation of potential construction and demolition waste
by extracting from them an additional or new value while generating a minimal amount of refuse [Attman, 2010 8]. These
strategies should add to the list of possible methods for products’ technical life extension design for reclaim., understood as a
process of reintroduction of building materials without reprocessing or cleaning and with limited repairing processes
[McMullan, 2012 6], as well as, the multidimensional design for adaptive reuse. The above-mentioned and further discussed
design concept, allows to lengthen the building product’s life cycle, and related conservation of natural resources necessary to
produce building materials. Retaining the reclaimed or salvaged building materials and products, acquired from refurbished or
dismantled objects in new architectural designs, including the shaping of indoor environment, is supposed to be the best design
practice enabling the conservation of both building materials and energy [Ali, Badinelli, and Jones, 2013 7], and preventing
the waste production.
This design scheme, with consideration of the constant remodeling and refurbishment within the internal spaces causing
the production of solid waste, allows to define the latter as an important stage in the continuous cycle of use, decay and
regeneration [Bingelli, 2007 9]. The application of this cost-effective and environment-impact-control-oriented design practice
provides a strategy aim for sustainable interventions in the interior design process.
The maintenance and refurbishment works in internal spaces, partial replacement of building parts as the results of
adaptation to new functions or usage, are in fact the beginning of waste producing, due to those partial demolition processes
[Thomsen, Schultmann and Kohler, 2011 5]. Constant transformations of the indoor environment, taking place through the
lifespan of objects cause the massive waste production exceeding the amount of waste coming from simple demolition. It is,
then, justified to include this issue into the sustainable design strategies already exercised by environmentally conscious
designers. The design methods assuring the creation of less costly and environmentally responsible indoor environment
combine: (1) preservation of the embodied energy EE present within the existing and being-in-use structures from the
dissipation due to demolition stage, (2) reduction in energy required to produce new building materials and products, (3)
extension of product lifetime, (4) reduction in the construction and demolition waste flow.
The concept of retaining and reusing of existing buildings is a significant postulate for sustainable design [Winchip, 2011
10] and it can be assessed as an innovative, imaginative and creative discipline within interior design enabling the successful
completion of the circular material flow scheme. As D. Baker-Brown from Superuse Studios indicates, the reintroduction of
reclaimed components, if executed properly and consequently, requires adjustments of planning procedure and design solutions
“according to what becomes available” [Schoof, 2015 11]. This approach to the design process does highlight the
comprehensive framework of adjustment of existing building substance to new functional requirements through the cost-
effective process of deconstruction, reclaiming and reuse of building components.
Environmentally sustainable interior design conceptual framework proposed in the paper identifies and promotes the
reintroduction of acquired used building materials and products into refurbished or newly conceived interiors in interior design
framework. The paper indicates factors facilitating the fulfillment of the concept, and analyses the barriers preventing it broad
implementation. The important position in this design model is assigned to, presented adaptive re-use concept as modified
and adjusted to the scale of interior environment [Plevoets and Van Cleempoel, 2013 12, Wilkinson, Remoy and Langston,
2013 13]. It comprises the alterations and conversions of the building structure itself, and the functions it accommodates
[Winchip, 2011 10], as well as interior constitutive components. The internal structural or constitutive components, identified
by the author, and referred to as constructs that can assimilate the recovered materials and products combine: external walls,
determined as enclosures separating inner space from natural environment and actively responding to changing climate
conditions, suspended ceilings, raised floors, partitions and spatial dividers. Among other terms accompanying the adaptive
re-use design model and interchangeably investigated by architecture critics are adaptation, reworking, and rehabilitation
[Plevoets and Van Cleempoel, 2013 12] which address most adequately this complex issue. All these notions emphasize the
benefits of retaining architectural heritage associated with the implementation of adaptive reuse design concept into design
framework.
II. COHESIVE DESIGN FOR INTERIOR COMPONENTS’ ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY

Interior designers have struggled for a long time to find their role in the responsible creation of inner spaces, exceeding
the specification of introduced building materials and products, which are evaluated exclusively on the basis of their single
attributes [Pilatowicz, 2015 14]. The scope of environmentally- conscious designer’s interests usually remains unchangeable
and focused mainly on the selection of building materials and products made in accordance with the formal, aesthetical identity
needs and functional demands, complemented with analysis of physical or chemical characteristics with regard to the interior
components’ performance.
The interior design being described as environmentally sustainable, in terms of its ecological awareness and effectiveness,
should be based on a systemic approach. Systemic in this context may be defined as the attitude which, initially applied to
green engineering, is established on the specific combination of organized elements, which form a unified entity. The building
interior mediating with its occupants, remains a relevant part of the built environment interconnected with natural surroundings.
Thus, it is necessary to make predictions and simulations of interior possible impacts on natural environment, with which the
inner space remains in another indirect form of mediation. This interrelationship identified and interpreted through the acquired
evidence enables informed design of interior components, based on the results of analysis of their multifaceted environmental
contextualization [Celadyn, 2018 15] is the sustainable interior design imperative. The modified interior design scheme
oriented toward its comprehensive environmental responsibility, is to emphasize the role of interior components in the

icshge.org
moderation of interrelationship of man-made and natural environments. The adjusted sustainable interior design model (Figure
1.) combines demands for components’ functional efficiency, formal integrity and aesthetic identity, considered as priority
questions in the conventionally established design framework which are integrated with environmental sustainability issues to
be accomplished. This scheme proposes the inclusion of the interior components’ environment-oriented assessment to design
procedure. This demand can be realized through their perception as structures being emitters of potentially harmful chemical
substances, or the waste coming from the cyclical processes of construction, refurbishment of final dismantling and disposal.
The modified model provides designers also with consideration of components as constructs influencing the improvement in
building systems’ effectiveness, as well as, optimization of indoor environment quality parameters with regard to these
components’ spatial context, applied technical solutions (e.g. internal buffers arrangement assuring necessary level of
ventilation effectiveness and providing spaces’ occupants with satisfactory privacy), and specification of building materials
made with the environmental preference design method.
Figure 1. Cohesive interior components’ sustainable design framework, focused on their perception in result of the applied environmental contextualization
as assessment design criterion.
The assignment of environmental criteria to the process of interior components creation enables the accomplishment of
environmentally sustainable design imperatives with the implementation of different design methods and techniques. These
include the interior and its components’ design for multi-functionality, design for adaptability, as well as design for flexibility.
The above mentioned allows for the rationally outlined and environmentally-responsible executed arrangement of internal
space, and management of resource materials. These design methods remain associated with another sustainable strategy to be
considered in components’ design programming, planning and designing phases. The design for deconstruction [Bonda and
Sosnowchik, 2014 16, Owen, 1999 17] which can be described as basic model for multiple usage of interior components,
extension of the components’ lifespan, controlled generation of chemical emissions, as well as minimization of the use of
material resources. The latter could be efficiently achieved on the basis of dematerialization scheme [Owen, 1999 17] for the
components of inner spaces. This concept understood as a purposefully reduced amount of used materials permitting to perform
their basic functions without deterioration of their quality [Bonda and Sosnowchik, 2014 16] assures the extension of product’s
lifespan [Szokolay, 2010 18]. Application of this ultimate design concept enables: minimizing the resources consumption,
reduction of environmental impacts, and sustainability awareness in the management of building materials. The rationally
introduced dematerialization concept, assuring the expected quality performance of internal spaces, becomes the innovative
design method enabling the creation of stylistically and ethically defined sustainable interiors [Celadyn, 2016 19]. This
approach to the components creation facilitate the introduction of another method of resources management through the

icshge.org
reclaim of elements for their further reuse [Keeler and Vaidya, 2016 20].
The statement indicating that “closing materials loops in construction remains the most challenging of all green building
efforts” [Szokolay, 2010 18] (p.390), may be applied to interiors, since the same requirements are assigned to the complexity
of building materials’ and products’ manufacturing, transportation, installation, use, and maintenance processes necessary to
establish the inner space components followed by their disposal or recovery enabling the remanufacturing process due to the
close-loop concept [Schlaffe, 2002 27]. The life-cycle approach to the creation of inner space components, as required from
the environmentally responsible interior designers [Jones, 2008 28], allows for the diminishing of the negative environmental
impact of building materials through the execution of their “integrated life cycle management” [Anink, Boonstra and Mak,
1998 29] (p.11). Adaptive reuse as the essential sustainable design concept, characterized by the limited amount of energy
supply necessary to obtain the anticipated effects, and the material resources to be introduced, allows the compliance of the
building materials’ lifespan with this demand of extension.
III. ADAPTIVE REUSE IN INTERIOR DESIGN MODEL

Although an increasing body of knowledge on resources management and methods of waste diversion from construction
sites already exists, the substantial role of designers in reducing the amount of waste is not precisely defined [Ali, Badinelli,
and Jones, 2013 7]. The commitment of interior designers to a consequent execution of innovative design strategies focused
on rationalization of resources consumption requires complex decision support systems, as well as the support of end users
assured with the incorporation of social-cultural dimensions within the environmentally responsible interior design model.
There is necessity for the complementing studies on the designers’ knowledge associated with sustainable design and their
perception of this innovative design model in order to build a framework for integrative ‘building materials and products
adaptive re-use concept’ in the traditionally structured design-bid-build process. The successful application of this strategy
requires an evaluation of objects’ structural and formal solutions in the context of their “post-use implications” [Walker, 2010
21].
There is a need for developing a thorough system on the building material adaptive reuse strategy application comprising
vendors, de-construction contractors, developers, facility managers, and interior designers, in order to allow for an effective
management of deconstruction or demolition waste and its reintegration with the built structures. “Building Material Reuse
Consulting Process Workflow” [Ali, Badinelli, and Jones, 2013 7] adopted for the interior design, has developed a multi-
disciplinary online platform enabling the exchange of essential information on the availability of reclaimed components,
complemented with guidelines providing modes of their successfully exercised reintroduction. It is to transform the design
process and requires stakeholders’ involvement and knowledge on the values and principles of the environmentally responsible
design for the built environment. These combine the achievement of the life cycle assessment, and equally assure the retaining
of the embodied energy minimum amount, regarding the specification of building materials and products to form interior
components. Equal exigencies are to be applied to the process of creation of sustainable interior, understood as the “second
building block of the built environment or near environment” [Mc Clure and Bartuska, 2007 22]. The modified interior design
model including the developed concept of the adaptive reuse of reclaimed or salvaged building materials and products
informing the design process is to facilitate the application of these requirements.
Questions to be raised while considering the design model oriented on waste management, are to outline the possible
range of conditions for the implementation of the adaptive reuse of reclaimed or salvaged building materials and products in
the interior design concept. The main objective should be to determine the designers’ awareness of environmentally sustainable
character of practicing adaptive re-use design concept in the creation of indoor environment, assuring the fulfillment of
sustainability paradigm in architectural design. Identification of factors that affect the users’ acceptance of sustainable interior
design practices and cooperation with designers can be essential for the effective application of sustainable strategies. Further
investigation establish and then assess correlation between currently existing users’ attitudes and behavioral schemes, as well
as the range of possible inclusion of the ‘materials and products adaptive reuse concept’ into the overall interior design process.
IV. DESIGN FOR ADAPTIVE RE-USE

The production of solid wastes during the construction or demolition, as inevitably associated with the built environment
[Bingelli, 2007 9] in the result of building industry activities, is understood in many ways and in different scales. Frequently
executed refurbishments of interior environments, especially commercial ones characterized by a relatively short lifespan, can
be described as a cyclic process of making new structures, which is accompanied by the simultaneous waste production. Design
of an interior environment component with regard to the environmental effects of constant flow of used substances is a
consequence of the idea that “the design of a product exists within a wider system of production, consumption and disposal”
[Walker, 2010 21].
The main problem in establishing new approach to the issue of re-inventing building materials and products in new
surroundings, is to decline from the construction, as well as demolition waste’s understanding as a worthless material.
According to Lyle [1994 23], it is necessary to revise the assumption that building materials, acquired from refurbishment or
demolition, cannot exist in any other than originally presumed functional sense. Van der Ryn and Cowan [2007 24], Yeang
[2009 25] emphasize the significance of restorative closed cycles of materials in the context of creation of ecologically efficient
architectural design with the presence of these processes within the built environment and the minimization of impact on
natural surrounding through the implementation of reuse or recycling methods.

icshge.org
Figure 2. Design for adaptive reuse in realization of waste management strategy.
As Thomsen et al. indicate “waste is increasingly considered as another form of resource” [2011 5] in currently developed
theoretic scheme of architectural design. It does confirm the cradle-to-cradle theory on the cyclic character of building products
technical life, and highlights the reuse demand achieving methods mostly efficient in extending this perspective. The
deconstruction process in relation to buildings, according to Kibert [2015 26], is becoming the architectural design strategy,
which offers opportunity for reintroduction of recovered and valuable components in new locations through the partial or
whole dismantling of existing structures. Design for deconstruction or “selective dismantling concept” [Owen, 1999 17] based
on the carefully previsioned management of available resources enables the extension of the products’ performances in
interiors. This responds to ethical questions regarding cost-effectiveness and ecological-efficiency of design methods applied
for the objects’ completion. The most effective and technically affordable methods of fulfilment of reuse demand, combine
design for disassembly, design for direct reuse and design for adaptive reuse of reclaimed or salvaged materials and products.
The latter refers to objects’ execution in another, differently defined application mode, while preserving the components’
usefulness and functionality in another spatial, functional and formal context. Establishing the users’ reconnection to materials
or artefacts, and forming distinctive aesthetic systems expressing another inspirational role of demand for efficient resources
management, remain other aspects of this specific approach to interior design. The understanding of the interconnectedness of
natural and built environments allows to recognize this adaptive reuse concept as an integrative design method, as well as,
essential environmental-responsibility indicator of interior and its components.
The above mentioned design methods, situated in architectural design between the reduce and recycle priorities are
recommended for an environmentally sustainable components completion with regard to the control over building materials
and products consumption level. It is reasonable to apply a similar scheme regarding the indoor environment forming process
and methods assuring the extension of components lifespan (Figure 2). Building materials, products or components recovered
from a dismantled building structure and then reused in new spatial or functional context of indoor environment, may be treated
as a valuable construction substance suitable for completing other objects.
V. DESIGN FOR ADAPTIVE RE-USE DETERMINANTS

The designers’ commitment to apply adaptive reuse in the achievement of sustainability strategy related to resources
management in interior design, requires exploration of data regarding: (1) local availability of building materials and products
suitable for reintroduction in new functional or spatial context; (2) assessment of materials physical parameters with regard to
their application in new environment, and evaluation of necessary treatment methods of these products or materials; (3) access

icshge.org
to the materials supply from a refurbished or demolished objects database creating the model of their appropriate distribution;
(4) assessment of users attitudes toward the implementation of reused components.
A. Design for adaptive reuse feasibility concerns

The insufficient amount of reliable and valuable data confirmed by third parties on the process of refurbishment with
reclaimed or salvaged products, causes the reluctance of designers toward the implementation of adaptive reuse concept as an
effective sustainability method, rising the questions regarding the real costs of interior interventions based on this model, as
well as products availability, and safety problems.
The assessment of technical conditions of reclaiming and reintroducing interior components or their parts, for their
ecological efficiency and economic effectiveness, should follow the information regarding the services and products of local
availability, work schedules, and costs analysis. The questions to be recognized by a designer from the planning and
programming phases of design, should enable the product, components or materials recirculation in the indoor environment
and involve the necessary research accompanying the design concept phase. The procedure regarding implementation of
reclaimed components or products is to address feasibility concerns including as follows:
• Availability and costs of reclaimed products transportation to a new location,
• Physical parameters of products to be reclaimed in relation to the planned mode of use and functional requirements,
• Characteristics of products and material sources, with focus on the content of potentially harmful chemical substances
used in the production and assembly processes,
• Disassembling of existing building components and products as prevised to reintroduction in new settings,
• Specification of necessary treatment procedure to obtain objects of high value and safety,
• Potential restoration works as preceding reintroduction of materials or components in a newly conceived internal space,
• Modernization of products and components necessary to comply with the current building code including their thermal
insulation, acoustical conditions, fire safety rules, hygienic and sanitary procedures,
• Adaptive reuse of reclaimed and restored products as opposed to the production of their equivalent substitutes containing
recycled materials.
B. Design for adaptive re-use technical requirements

Broad implementation of the reused artefacts into an internal environment requires the consideration of the main problems
that can occur in the consequences of this approach. These uncertainties to be identified by designers address different technical
and structural aspects of spaces’ components.
Exemplary questions regarding the technical characteristics and requiring the assessment include the following:
• Content of potentially harmful chemical substances present in the acquired and installed components and their
concurrence with the obsolete requirements causing the health related problems in the effect of users’ exposure to these
pollutants,
• Structural obsolescence and poor durability of products in the consequence of originally employed faulty techniques,
• Low performance standards of reclaimed equipment due to outdated manufacturing methods,
• Visual obsolescence of acquired components, equipment or furnishings,
• Social obsolescence related to acquired products resulting from their appearance evoking unsatisfactory aesthetical or
semantic connotations.
The assessment of these problems recognizes the significance of designers’ doubts and considerations towards the
adaptive reuse of reclaimed or salvaged building materials and products in a closed-circuit model being in the opposition to
the once-through or open-circuit schemes [Yeang, 2009 25].
C. Design for adaptive reuse evidence based instruments
Clarification of the waste management issues in interior design in the context of the preservation of natural environment,
and assessment of related problems require evidence based design. Accessibility of reliable data sources, and involvement of
professionals engaged in the environmentally responsible design process from the predesign phases of planning and
programming is to defeat some uncertainties or misunderstandings over the position of interiors in the reduction of negative
impact on the natural environment and to build up the informed interior design.
Successful implementation of adaptive reuse concept depend on the developed research on the issues including:
• Local availability of specific materials and products to be recovered,
• System enabling the connection of building material reuse vendors and de-construction contractors with designers,
• Cost analysis of refurbishment of reclaimed components,
• Evaluation of interior design methods and their practical implementation modes on the basis of scientific research;
• Involvement of experts and accredited green building consultants into the integrative interior design process with the
emphasis on resources management issues

icshge.org
• Accessibility of third parties providing expertise on the physical conditions of products intended to retain or reintroduce
into interior environments,
• Accessibility of professionals skilled in performing the restoration of damaged available building products to be
reintroduced,
• Reliable data bases providing evidence obtained on the basis of the multiple comparative case studies of sustainable
interiors, concentrated especially on the certified ones containing components completed with the adaptive reuse design
concept,
• Reference guides to the possible technical methods of reintroduction of reclaimed products into the indoor environment.
Data assembled in the result of conducted studies in a summary of reports with the supporting final results and discussion
of the outcomes, are to facilitate the application of sustainability-oriented proposals into environmentally responsible interior
design. These findings are related to efforts undertaken by environmental-sustainability-conscious interior designers within
the decision making process on the basis of the integrative design model, which considers an active participation of
knowledgeable and environmentally-responsible stakeholders, as indispensable condition of successful accomplishment of
sustainability postulates.
D. Design for adaptive reuse behavioral effects
The questions address the consideration and further qualitative evaluation of application of the adaptive reuse interior
design concept, and its possible effect on different values associated with human activities. To encourage the users’ sustainable
choices, and engage occupants in the active creation of environmentally conscious indoor environment, and the intensification
of educational efforts on the importance of sustainable design decisions while employing design interventions regarding the
creation of internal spaces and their component is crucial. Indication of the potential benefits of reintroduction of reclaimed
components, based on the identification of their aesthetic and experience values [Wilkinson, Remoy and Langston, 2014 13]
while considering the proposals, facilitate the design process and acceptance of pro-ecological solutions by the users.
Investigation undertaken within the project include selected internal factors (i.e. personal attitudes, individual priorities
influencing the awareness of environmental impact of buildings’ internal surroundings) assigned to the personal experience,
as well as, external factors comprising normative influences (i.e. traditional socio-cultural models as exercised in a close
circle, family customs being traditionally repeated) [Kollmuss and Agyeman 2002 32]. All these factors can influence the
users’ pro-environmental behavioral intentions and affect their acceptance of application of several sustainable interior design
decisions; especially the discussed adaptive reuse concept, as an integrated sustainable interior design technique. The
consideration of this particular indicator as a condition of finding the correlation between the users’ attitude and practicing
pro-environmental behavior based on the model of Theory of Reasoned Action and Theory of Planned Behavior established
by Ajzen and Fishbein [1975 33, 1980 34] constitute a framework for the measurement of occupants’ pro-environmental
behavior focused on an efficient resources management postulate. This is to enable the establishment of the effective client–
interior designer communication as a matter of accomplishment of sustainability criterion of resources conservation. The
Model of Responsible Environmental Behavior [Hines, Hungerford and Tomera 1987 35] forms another substantial tool for
the research on. It does emphasize the knowledge of issues and situational factors’ (e.g. social pressures, opportunities to
choose different actions) as important and scientifically proved variables associated with the ability of taking of pro-
environmental actions.
The lack of appropriate knowledge and access to information on the values of reused building materials is the most
important constraint for occupants, considering the adaptive reuse concept in their near environment creation. Predesign
research allows to determine the factors leading to probable rejection of implementation of the adaptive reuse of reclaimed or
salvaged building products as a sustainable interior design concept. The research on the socio-behavioral context of interior
design process, is to provide valuable outcomes on the factors influencing the approach of selected groups of respondents
toward indoor environment. It is playing the substantial role in the control of overall resource consumption and environmental
impact. The purpose is to make an analysis of the following problems related to the broad implementation of adaptive reuse
concept in interior design:
• Identification of significant doubts and considerations regarding the reuse of reclaimed or salvaged building materials
and products due to misconceptions regarding the adaptive reuse concept application modes,
• Indication of the reasons of reluctance to accept the adaptive reuse sustainable interior design method due to deficiency
in the recognition of environmental context in design proposals
• Indication of reasons for rejecting this adaptive reuse procedure’s priority in the interior design model in the result of
established different individual aesthetical preferences and requirements.
The research by interior design oriented on the implementation of waste management methods, requires measurement of
occupants’ ability to discover the main benefits of re-implementation of reclaimed or salvaged building materials and products.
The identification of its possible effects on other values associated with human activities like. preservation and adaptation of
cultural and heritage values expressed in the reintroduced valuable reclaimed components, exposure of multifunctional values
of selected reclaimed components, continuity in the cultural proficiency coming from the reused building components,
expression of the identity of local building tradition, craftsman’s workshop, development of new knowledge related to technical

icshge.org
methods of forming building components prove the meaning of interior design as a sustainability educational tool. They are
envisaged to rise designers and other stakeholders’ interest in exploring the environmental context in the indoor environment
creation through unconventional design methods based on the reuse concept.
VI. CONCLUSION
The waste that results from building deconstruction, refurbishment, or demolition due to the functional improvements or
organizational changes, is recognized as one of the leading problems in architecture critics and design profession.
Environmental consciousness [Pilatowicz, 1995 31] in the inner space development and the environmental context applied to
its creation, means the willingness of designers to submit their projects to the assessment of components’ design characteristics
related to their impact on natural surroundings. Design proposals with regard to the influence on environmental sustainability
are based on the inclusion of the locally produced and acquired building materials into the project’s specification,
recommendation of energy-efficient lighting fixtures and appliances, as well as products reclaimed and re-introduced or made
with recycled content. These above mentioned design methods and techniques reflect the designers’ consideration toward the
conservation of natural resources and minimization of energy consumption and waste production have to be supplemented
with the adaptive reuse of reclaimed or salvaged products The accomplishment of regenerative and restorative objectives of
environmentally-oriented interior design could be endorsed with the consequent application of adaptive reuse of reclaimed or
salvaged building materials and products in the interiors design concept. This concept assures the resource efficiency in
interior’s completion in a more then alternatively considered manufacturing or recycling processes.
The multi-faceted introduction of recovered products or their parts, assuring their “superuse” [Yeang, 2009 25], may
become an important environment-responsibility-oriented design method for the project’s completion. The reclaimed building
materials and their specification in the project’s documentation, demonstrating the scale of designers’ commitment to the
creation of sustainable indoor environment, may even become a decisive factor in the shaping of “deep ecological aesthetic”
[Hegger et al., 2008 30] (p.165). This notion, originally used in the context of architectural design exploring the influence of
environmental factors on buildings’ spatial modelling, may be analogically assigned to the interior design process, with the
comprehensive management of materials available on site, products or internal components, as becoming another source of
the stylistic and formal inspirations and considerations.
This concept paper provides a starting point for a further discussion on the aspects of comprehensive inclusion of adaptive
reuse into the interior design methodology with respect to the waste management criterion being an important feature of the
object’s ecological efficiency. Further studies should be focused on the measurement of designers’ ability to identify the main
benefits of re-implementation of reclaimed or salvaged building materials and products into realized building's internal
environment.
REFERENCES
Ajzen, I. and Fishbein, M. (1980). Understanding attitudes and predicting social behavior. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall.
Akadiri, P.O., Chinyio, E.A. and Olomolaiye, P.O. (2012). Design of a Sustainable Building: A Conceptual Framework for Implementing Sustainability in
the Building Sector. Buildings, 2(…), pp.126-152.
Ali, A., Badinelli, R. and Jones, J. R. (2013). Re-Defining the Architectural Design Process through Building. A Decision-Support Framework for Design
with Reuse. The International Journal of Sustainability Policy and Practice, 8, pp.1-18.
Anink, D., Boonstra, Ch. and Mak, J. (1998) Handbook of Sustainable Building. An Environmental Preference Method for Selection of Materials for Use in
Construction and Refurbishment. London: James & James (Science Publishers) Ltd.
Attman, O. (2010). Green Architecture. Advanced Technologies and Materials. New York: McGraw Hill.
Bingelli, C. (2007). Materials for Interior Environments. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Bonda, P. and Sosnowchik, K. (2014). Sustainable Commercial Interiors. 2nd ed. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.
Brand, S. (1994). How Buildings Learn. What Happens after They Are Built. London: Penguin Books. Celadyn, M. (2016). Inner space elements in
environmentally responsible interior design education. World Transactions on Engineering and Technology Education, 14(3), pp.495-499.
Celadyn, M. (2018). Environmental activation of inner space components in sustainable interior design.
Sustainability, 10 (6), doi: 10.3390/su10061945.
Duffy, F. (1998). Design for Change. The Architecture of DEGW. Basel–Boston–Berlin: Birkhauser Verlag.
Fishbein, M., and Ajzen, I. (1975). Belief, attitude, intention, and behavior: an introduction to theory and research (reading, Ma, Addison-Wesley).
Hegger, M., Fuchs, M., Stark, T. and Zeumer, M. (2008). Energy Manual. Sustainable Architecture. Birkhauser Verlag AG.
Hines, J. M., Hungerford, H. R. and Tomera, A.N. (1987). Analysis and synthesis of research on responsible pro-environmental behavior: a meta-analysis.
The Journal of Environmental Education. 18(2), pp. 1–8.
Jones, L. (ed.) (2008). Environmentally Responsible Design. Green and Sustainable Design for Interior Designers. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley &
Sons Inc.
Keeler, M. and Vaidya, P. (2016). Fundamentals of Integrated Design for Sustainable Building, 2nd ed. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
Kibert, C. J. (2015). Sustainable Construction: Green Building Design and Delivery. 4th ed. Hoboken, New Jersey: Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Kollmuss A. and Agyeman J. (2002). Mind the Gap: Why do people act environmentally and what are the barriers to pro-environmental behavior?
Environmental Education Research. 8(3), pp. 239-260.
Lyle, J. T. (1994). Regenerative Design for Sustainable Development. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
Mc Clure, W. R. and Bartuska, T. J. (ed.) (2007). The Built Environment. A Collaborative Inquiry into Design and Planning. 2nd ed. Hoboken, New Jersey:
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Mc Donough, W. and Braungart, M. (2002). Cradle to Cradle. Remaking the Way We Make Things. New York: North Point Press.

icshge.org
Mc Mullan, R. (2012). Environmental science in building. 7th ed. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Owen, L. J. (1999). A Green Vitruvius. Principles and Practice of Sustainable Architectural Design. London: James & James.
Pilatowicz, G. (1995). Eco-Interiors. A Guide to Environmentally Conscious Interior Design. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Pilatowicz, G. (2015). Sustainability in Interior Design. Sustainability: The Journal of Record 8, pp.101-104.
Plevoets, B. and Van Cleempoel, K. (2013). Adaptive reuse as an emerging discipline: an historic survey, [In] Cairns, G., Reinventing Architecture and
Interiors. A socio-political view on building adaptation, London: Libri Publishers.
Schlaffle, E. (2002). Aspects of Office Workplace Lighting. In A Design Manual Office Buildings, Hascher, R., Jeska, S. and Klauck, B. (ed.), Basel–
Berlin–Boston: Birkhauser.
Schoof, J. (2015). Vintage Design or Conservation of Resources? Re-use and Recycling in Architecture, Detail Green, Institut fuer internationale
Architektur-Dokumentation GmbH&Co. KG, München, 15.
Szokolay, S. V. (2010). Introduction to Architectural Science. The Basis of Sustainable Design. Oxford: Architectural Press.
Thomsen, A., Schultmann, F. and Kohler, N. (2011). Deconstruction, demolition and destruction. Building Research & Information, 39, pp.1466-4321.
Van der Ryn, S. and Cowan, S. (2007). Ecological Design. Tenth Anniversary Edition. Washington: Island Press.
Walker, S. (2010). Temporal Objects—Design, Change and Sustainability. Sustainability 2, pp.812-832.
Wilkinson, S. J., Remoy, H. and Langston, C. (2014). Sustainable Building Adaptation, Oxford: Wiley Blackwell.
Winchip, S. M. (2011). Sustainable Design for Interior Environments. 2nd ed. New York: Fairchild Books.
Yeang, K. (2009). Ecodesign. A Manual for Ecological Design. London: John Wiley & Sons.

icshge.org
Reconstruction Paleogeomorphological map of The Nile River in Upper

Egypt by using some geomorphological and geoarchaeological indicators
Torab, M.
Geography Department, Faculty of Arts, Damanhour University, Egypt; magdytorab@hotmail.com
Abstract— Ancient Egyptians built their temples purposefully close to the River Nile to use it for transporting construction
stones from far away quarries to building sites in river-boats. Most temples, therefore, have river-harbors associated with their
geometric designs. The paleoriver channel remapped by using this idea, besides other geomorphological and
geoarchaeological indicators/evidence located between Aswan and Luxor cites. In this sense, this paper defines the
characteristics of this ancient course and its associated landforms using paleochannel morphology, paleomeandering, and
ancient river dynamics during historic and prehistoric times. Both geomorphological and geoarchaeological approaches used
to reconstruct the paleomorphology of the river course. It helps to investigate the ancient river morphology by using the
following techniques: Comparison and interpretation of multi dates satellite images and historical maps between 1943 and
2004. The results illustrated on maps using GIS (ARC GIS V.10 software) and the field data collected from the western bank
of The Nile River at Luxor area and Karnak, Edfu, Esna and Kom Ombo temples. Created both current and
paleogeomorphological maps depending upon the results of geoarchaeological surveying and soil analysis and dating, for
surface and subsurface soil sampling by handle auger, laser diffraction analysis for 7 soil samples collected from some mounds
and Malkata channel in the western bank of The Nile River near Luxor. Paleo-current directions were determined by using
standard Brunton compass to use it as an indicator is evidence for the direction of flow of The Nile River during deposition of
some accumulated mounds on the western part of the floodplain near Luxor city. C 14 dating were used for two samples
collected from these mounds as well as geographical information system (GIS) technique for mapping. The geomorphological
and geoarchaeological evidence shows that the Nile River course in Luxor area was around 4.5 km wide and contained many
islands and sandbars which separated inside the river channel, now appearing as scattered mounds inside the floodplain. Upper
Egypt has migrated during the historic times to the east up to five kilometers and become far away from the ancient temples,
quarries, and harbors. It has also become as well as become more meandering and narrower than before.
Keywords—Nile River, ancient harbours, Luxor, paleogeomorphology, geoarchaeology
I. INTRODUCTION
D URING historic and prehistoric times, human occupation and development of alluvial Nile River floodplains have been
affected by lateral migration, which may have ranged as high as several tens of m/y (s). The idea of this paper is to
reconstruct the paleogeomorphology evolution of the Nile River in Upper Egypt by using some geomorphological and
geoarchaeological evidence. The study area located in the southern part of the Nile-River course of Egypt between Aswan
and Luxor cities, between 24° 5'28.70" and 25°41'45.74"N for about 182 km (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Location map of the study area.

icshge.org
A. Objective
This paper aims to remap the geomorphological evolution for the ancient Nile-river course in southern part of Egypt and
define paleomorphology of the ancient course and its associated landforms during historic and prehistoric times.
B. Previous work
Some geomorphological and geoarchaeological studies have considered river migration around the Nile valley in Upper
Egypt and its ancient harbours such as: (Buzon et al., 2007) which studded Migration in the Nile Valley during the New
Kingdom period, this paper examines the feasibility of using 87Sr/86Sr ratios to investigate residential mobility in the Nile
Valley region, specifically at the New Kingdom period (w1050e1400 BC) archaeological site of Tombs in ancient Nubia.
(Hillier et al., 2007) this study discussed migration rates of The Nile River in Luxor area during modern time by using remote
sensing and GPS data; (Ghilardi & Boraik, 2011 ; Ghilarrdi et al., 2012) it studded the ancient harbour of Karnak temple by
depending upon Stratigraphic profiles; manual auger boreholes and sampling for grain-size analysis and magnetic
susceptibility measurements and paleobotanic study and C14 dating; (Vermeersch & Neer, 2015) this paper studded migration
rates of the Nile River during historical times and the reconstruction of the environment and the human population history of
the Nile Valley during the Late Pleistocene. however, the previous papers have not studied the geomorphological evolution
of the ancient course of the river Nile particularly by using geomorphological and geoarchaeological indicators and evidence.
C. Methods
Both geomorphological and geoarchaeological approaches used to reconstruct the paleomorphology of the river course
and investigate the ancient river morphology by using the following techniques: Comparison and interpretation of multi dates
satellite images and historical maps between 1943 and 2004 by using ARC GIS V.10 software, field observation of the western
bank of The Nile River at Luxor area and Karnak, Edfu, Esna and Kom Ombo temples and both current and
paleogeomorphological mapping by using both current geomorphological features and ancient geomorphological features
depending upon the results of geoarchaeological surveying and soil analysis and dating, surface and subsurface soil sampling
by handle auger, laser diffraction analysis for 7 soil samples collected from some mounds and Malkata channel in the western
bank of The Nile River near Luxor, field paleo-current directions analysis by using standard Brunton compass to use it as
indicator is evidence for the direction of flow of The Nile River during deposition of some accumulated mounds on the western
part of the floodplain near Luxor city and C 14 dating for two samples collected from these mounds as well as GIS technique
for mapping.
II. RESULTS
A. Morphology of the Nile River between Aswan and Luxor Cites
Ancient Egyptians built their temples purpose fully close to the River Nile to use it for transporting construction stones
from far away quarries to building sites in river-boats. Most temples, therefore, have river-harbours associated with their
geometric designs. So we can estimate the paleomorphology of the river channel by using this idea besides other evidence.
Motion direction depends on the curvature of the river. Bends tend to move outwards and downstream except where
constrained by the desert edge. Considering historic maps, we have calculated Nile migration rates between the harbour of
each temple and the current river channel. The results have shown that the Nile River near Edfu Temple migrated for about
960 m. to the east (Figure 2) it measured between the harbour of each temple site and the current river channel, The River Nile
near Esna Temple migrated to the east for about 190m only by measure the distance between the temple and the current river
channel. (Figure 3), the River Nile near Kom Ombo Temple is stable at the same site without any migration (Figure 4). We can
also use former natural levees to remap the former channel of the river (Figure 5).
Figure 2. Migration distance of the Nile River near Edfu Temple by measure the distance between the harbour of Edfu temple and the current river
channel.

icshge.org
Figure 3. Migration distance of the Nile River near Esna Temple by measure the distance between the harbour of Esna temple and the current river
channel.
Figure 4. The Nile River near Kom Ombo Temple stabled because the Nile river channel still near the harbour of Kom Ombo Temple.
Figure 5. Relationship between former river levees and temples in Thebes (Luxor) area (After: Bunbury et al., 2008).

icshge.org
B. Recent channel migration between Aswan and Luxor cities

The results of comparing historical topographic maps 1943 (scale 1:25000) and satellite images 2004 (Landsat 7,
ETM_157_41, 14m) of the Nile River between Aswan and Luxor cities, using ARC GIS V.10, to measure migration of The
Nile River channel during this period, it shows that we can classify the morphological changes of The Nile river course into
the following types:
1. Straight-to-the-east migrated channels, as a result of the effect of the Coriolis force and the western winds (Figure
6).
2. Migrated meanders to the east, as a result of the effect of the Coriolis force and western winds and as a response to
decreasing the river load after constructing the Aswan Dam and High Dam during the 20th century (Figure 7).
3. A migrated twin meanders to the east & to the west, as result of decreasing the river load after the construction of
the Aswan, and the High, Dams during the 20th century and deposition on the convex side of the meanders (Figure
8).
4. Migrated meanders and straight channels to the north as the result of deposition on the convex side of the meanders
and the shallow side of the straight channel (Figure 9).
5. Stable channel sectors as a result of stabilizing the hydrological conditions in these sectors as responses of faults
(Figure 10).
Figure 6. Two symbols of channels migrated straight to the east.
Figure 7. Two symbols of migrated meanders to the east.

icshge.org
Figure 8. Two symbols of migrated twin meanders to the east & to the west.
Figure 9. Two symbols of migrated meanders and straight channels to the north.
Figure 10. Two symbols of stable channel sectors.

icshge.org
C. Recent migration of the Nile channel between Aswan and Luxor cities
The recent migration of the river channel in Luxor area studied by (Hilier et al., 2007) between 1914 and 2006, by
comparing historical topographic maps (Scale 1:50000), 1943 (Scale 1:25000), 1991 (Scale (1:50000). It shows that both
meanders of Luxor area become during the beginning of the 21st century more curved as a result of deposition of both meanders
on the convex side. Morphological changes of the Nile River in Luxor area by using SRTM satellite images has been studied
by (Hilier et al., 2007). It shows that the both meanders of Luxor area were migrated as a result of fluvial deposition on the
convex side of both meanders, especially after the construction of the Aswan and the High Dams.
D. Some geoarchaeological indicators of paleogeomorphology of The Nile River between Aswan and Luxor cities
Some temples were constructed on the banks of the Nile River between Aswan and Luxor, which were built of transported
stones by ships from the quarries on the river banks to the temples sites; therefore, all these temples include a pier in its design
to use it in docking the ships loaded with stones. These piers can be used as an indicator of the paleochannel location during
construction its temples, especially during the recent times some temples have become far away from the current river channel,
which can be used to calculate the river migration rate.
1) Ancient Karnak Harbour
The first set of observations and investigations of the archaeological evidence of harbour infrastructures in Karnak
temples started by (Legrain, 1929). He shows that this harbour was constructed between the 19th Dynasty and the Roman
times depending upon sediment analyses. However, (Lauffray, 1971& 1975) studied the archaeological, hieroglyphic and
topographic characteristics of this harbour actually measuring its dimensions (18 X 9.4 m). He also found that the pier slope
was 14% reaching the relative water level of the river during the floods. He has also shown that the harbour was connected to
the Nile River, but didn’t explain the paleomorphology of the river channel (Figure 11&12) there. (Boraik et al., 2010) studied
the Stratigraphic profiles of river channel near the harbour.
Figure 11. The bier of Karnak harbour located front of the Figure 12. One of ancient anchors of Karnak harbor.
main entrance of Karnak Temple.
2) Ancient Malkata Palace

The ruins of ancient Malkata or Malqata Palace (meaning: the place where things picked up) it situated on the West Bank
of the River Nile near Luxor city. It constructed by the ancient Egyptian King Amenhotep III, but several topographic features
removed by erosion, including a temple of Amun, a festival hall and houses for visiting guests and family members, as well as
a large artificial harbour called a Birket Habu and a channel linked it to the Nile River, well over two kilometers away. Nile
River, which was used for sailing across the river to the ancient Malkata Palace (Upmound,1988). The remains of the palace
and its channel were discovered by Daressy during 1888 (Daressy, 1903).
During field observation of the palace and its channel, some soil samples were collected from ancient mounds near the
channel and the harbour for grain size analysis, laser diffraction analysis, and dating. A geomorphic mapping is conducted for
both sites’ current morphological conditions. This included some fluvial mounds distributed on the ancient floodplain, reaching
heights of about 6-13 meters over the flood plain. Some settlements were constructed on these mounds and were surrounded
by an ancient wide channel as well as some paleogeomorphological landscapes. This also included using some
geomorphological evidence and geoarchaeological indicators such as the positions of ancient harbours, channel, temples,
Malkata palace and the mounds specifying the channel. The mounds were covered by red clay pottery-shreds, mostly modern.
More recent debris consists of tin cans and windblown plastic water bottles and carrier bags. But the romance of the site will
always remain in my imagination (Hope,1978).
Birket Habu is a huge artificial channel and it has a harbour, which connected to the Palace Complex of Amenhotep
III. The channel ended by a two-kilometer harbour, began at the Nile and ran past Amenhoteph’s huge mortuary temple of
which the two statues of Memnon are the two most remarkable remains (Figure 13 and 14).

icshge.org
Figure 13. General view of remains of Malkata channel toward the north.
Figure 14. Current geomorphological map of Luxor area depends upon recent geomorphological features.
E. Soil samlpling and dating

Some soil samples collected from seven locations of accumulated mounds near Luxor city and from Makata channel for
grain size analysis, laser diffraction analysis and C 14 dating, to understand the characteristics of paleodeposition conditions
and its dates.
1) Grain size analysis for surface soil samples
Seven sub surface soil samples collected from some accumulated mounds located inside the floodplain of Luxor area
(Figure 15). The grain size analysis of the collected samples shows that between 81-85 % of them consist of very fine sands
(0.125- 0.062 mm) and coarse silt (0.062- 0.31 mm) (Table 1).
TABLE I
LOCATION AND TYPES OF SOIL SAMPLES
Sample # Elevation Type of
Lat Long analysis Location Remarks
meters
LXR1 25° 42' 46.43" 32° 35' 33.45" 73.00 Malkata channel (western
₲ ₵XIV¤
mound)
LXR2 25° 41' 49.66" 32° 35.8' 52.00" 87.60 ₲ Ᵽ ₵XIV ¤ Ɫ Aqalta El Hagar mound
LXR3 25° 42' 0.69" 32° 35' 8.36" 96.00 ₲ⱣⱢ Kula mound
LXR4 25° 41' 59.00" 32° 35' 8.29" 96.00 ₲
LXR5 25° 42' 10.10" 32° 35' 5.54" 90.47 ₲ Malkata channel (Eastern
side)
LXR6 25° 42' 22.71" 32° 35' 17.89" 95.00 ₲¤
LXR7 25° 42' 23.17" 32° 35' 16.13" 97.00 Malkata channel
₲¤
(Western side)
₲: Grain size analysis for surface soil samples; Ᵽ: Analysis of Paleocurrents directions; ¤: Auger soil cores; Ɫ: laser diffraction analysis; ₵XIV: C14 dating

icshge.org
Figure 15. Location of soil samples and paleocurrent analysis.
2) Auger soil cores

Four soil samples of Nile sediments recovered near Malkata Palace ruins to study the past river activity in this area. The
sedimentary sequence obtained by boring with a handle auger during January 2015. Samples obtained from known depths as
far as 10 m below the surface. They have been properly sieved to gather all grains down to a size of 2 mm in diameter. A full
list of auger sites is given in (Table.2).
TABLE II
DESCRIPTION OF SOIL SAMPLES
Auger Site Depth

Brief Description of Log
# (m)
LXR1 2.23 Recent anthropgenic deposits of tarmac, gravel, and desert sand.
LXR2 2.65 Recent anthropgenic deposits with sandstone at base of section.
LXR6 2.72 Recent anthropgenic deposits with stone and desert sand.
LXR7 3.13 Bedded sand and mud with charcoal layers.
3) laser diffraction analysis

Soil samples collected from two sites in Aqalta El Hagar mound and Kula mound in the floodplain of Luxor area, each
site consists of three vertical layers of sedimentation stage, from down to top: a, b and c. The Laser diffraction of soil particles
analysis, is a technology that uses diffraction patterns to measure geometrical dimensions of a particle of soil samples. The
aim of this analysis is to understand characteristics of the sedimentary environment of each layer as a result of velocity, optical
transmission, depth, and sediment particle size distribution (PSD) during each sedimentation stage of both mounds (Figure 16
and 17) 1.
1
laser diffraction analysis analyzed in geology department lab, Alexandria University.

icshge.org
Figure 16. Laser diffraction analysis of soil particles three sedimentary groups of Aqalta El Hagar mound.

icshge.org
Figure 17. Laser diffraction analysis of soil particles of three sedimentary groups of Kula mound.

icshge.org
The results of laser diffraction analysis of three sedimentary groups of Aqalta El Hagar mound and Kula mound (Figure
16 and 17), show that it illustrated above show that particles with different strength respond in a very different way to the same
testing strategy during particle size determination by laser diffraction. It shows that the layer # A of Aqalta El Hagar mound
is mainly consisting of Aluminum Iron Silicon but layers B and C are consisting of Aluminum Iron, but the layer # A of Kula
mound is mainly consisting of Aluminum Magnesium, and layers B and C are consisting of Aluminum Iron. These results
show that there is a clear difference between sedimentation system in the both three layers, between layer A and both B and C
layers because the component counts of layer A is a different component of layers B and C as a result of the different source
and environmental conditions.
4) Paleocurrent directions of some fluvial mounds accumulated on the floodplain

Three groups of paleocurrent indicators in sedimentary structures distinguished on some fluvial mounds accumulated on
the flood plain near Luxor City, Cross-lamination produced by ripples migrating direction of the flow of paleoriver current.
The dip direction of the cross-laminae was measured on two mounds called " Aqalta El Hagar and Kula mounds", is in the
western part of the floodplain near the remains of the ancient Malkata palace (Figure 18).
Figure 18: Rose diagrams of paleocurrent directions measured in 15 sites of overall groups (left rose diagram), and Group "A" located at the bottom of the
measured sections, "B" located in the middle of the measured sections and "C" on the top of the measured sections.
The rose diagrams show that the main flow direction is the NW/SE direction as a result of paleodeposits accumulated
from the main river channel during the ancient floods, in addition to NE/SW secondary flow direction especially on "C" recent
group which on the top of the fluvial mounds, as a result of recent floods current direction. But a layer of clay mixed with
limestone boulders was recognized between "A and B groups" of thickness between 22- 34 cm in both "Aqalta El Hagar and
Kula mounds" as an indicator of the different source of deposits from the eastern desert during this period (Figure 19 and 20).
Figure 19. Paleoflow directions of A, B and C groups and Figure 20. Paleoflow directions of "A group" and two opposite
boulders layer at eastern part of "Aqalta El Hagar mound". directions of "B and C groups" in addition to boulders layer at the
southern part of "Kula mound".
5) Radiocarbon dating
The radiocarbon dating results for two samples collected from a mound located near Malkata Palace and Aqalta El
Hagar mound. As usual, specifics of the analysis are listed on the report with the results and calibration data is provided where
applicable. The Conventional Radiocarbon Age has been corrected for total fractionation effects and where applicable.
Calibration has been performed using 2013 calibration databases (cited on Figure 21) for the first sample. As always,
Conventional Radiocarbon Ages and Sigmas are rounded to the nearest 10 years per the conventions of the 1977 International
Radiocarbon Conference. When counting statistics produce Sigmas lower than +/- 30 years, a conservative +/- 30 BP is cited
for the result of both samples. The Measured Radiocarbon Age is 5400 +/-30 BP, and the conventional radiocarbon age is 5510

icshge.org
+/-30 BP for the first sample and 5360 +/-30 BP, and the conventional radiocarbon age is 5470 +/-30 BP. These results are
synchronous with Pharaohs of the pre-dynastic period (5550BC – 3050 BC) 2.
Figure 21. Result of the first sample radiocarbon age collected from a mound located near Malkata Palace.
6) Paleogeomorphological map of Luxor area

The paleogeomorphological map constructed of Luxor area depending upon the available paleogeomorphological and
geoarchaeological evidence (Figure 22), it shows that the Nile River course in Luxor area was wider than the present time,
where its width ranged from 5.6 km to 3.4 km and contained many islands and sandbars which separated inside the river
channel, These islands formed during three consecutive stages of ancient floods by accumulation of flood sediments, but it
separated by a limestone boulders layer which accumulated from the eastern desert wadis connected to The Nile River south
of Luxor area.
Figure 22. Paleogeomorphological map of Luxor area depends on some paleogeomorphological and geoarchaeological evidence.
III. DISCUSSION
The results of comparing historical topographic maps 1943 (scale 1:25000) and satellite images 2004 (Landsat 7,
ETM_157_41, 14m) of the Nile River between Aswan and Luxor cities show that we can classify the morphological changes
of The Nile river course into five types; Straight migrated channels; migrated meanders both to the east and migrated twin
meanders to the east & to the west as response of decreasing the river load after constructing the Aswan Dam and High Dam;
migrated meanders and straight channels to the north as the result of deposition on the convex side of the meanders and the
shallow side of the straight channel; and finally stable channel sectors as a result of the stability of the hydrological conditions
2
The samples were analyzed in Beta Analytic Lab, Miami, Florida 33155 USA on April 29, 2015, samples #. Beta - 409155 & 409156.

icshge.org
in some sites.
Some geoarchaeological indicators of paleogeomorphology of The Nile River between Aswan and Luxor cities especially
some temples constructed on the banks of the Nile River between Aswan and Luxor, especially in the harbour of Karnak
temple and Makata place and its harbours and channel, it used as an indicator of the ancient site of The Nile River during the
period of construction of these temples, because each temple included a harbour to transport the stones by ships from the
quarries on the river banks to the temples sites; therefore the biers of these harbours used as an indicator of the paleochannel
site during construction its temples. The distance between ancient temples and current river channel, it shows that migration
distance of the Nile River near Edfu Temple was 960 m.; 190 m. near Esna Temple; but the river stabled near Kom Ombo
Temple from the period of construction the temple up to the current time.
The results of grain size analysis of the collected seven soil samples collected from some accumulated mounds located
inside the floodplain of Luxor area, it shows that most its particles consist of very fine sands (0.125- 0.062 mm) and coarse silt
(0.062- 0.31 mm). Soil samples collected from vertical layers of sedimentation stage of two sites in Aqalta El Hagar mound
and Kula mound in the floodplain of Luxor area, the Laser diffraction of soil particles analysis used to measure geometrical
dimensions of a particle of soil samples during each sedimentation stage especially paleoriver velocity, optical transmission,
depth, and sediment particle size distribution (PSD) during each sedimentation stage of both mounds.
Paleocurrent directions of some fluvial mounds accumulated on the floodplain distinguished on some fluvial mounds
accumulated on the flood plain near Luxor City. The measured rose diagrams shows that the main flow direction is the NW/SE
direction as a result of paleodeposits accumulated from the main river channel during the ancient floods, also to NE/SW
secondary flow direction especially on "C" recent group which on the top of the fluvial mounds, as a result of recent floods
current direction. But a layer of clay mixed with limestone boulders recognized between "A and B groups" of thickness between
22- 34 cm in both "Aqalta El Hagar and Kula mounds" as an indicator of the different source of deposits from the eastern
desert during this period. The radiocarbon dating results for two samples collected from a mound located near Malkata Palace
for the first sample and Aqalta El Hagar mound for the second sample; the result of The Measured Radiocarbon Age is 5510
+/-30 BP for the first sample and 5360 +/-30 BP for the second sample, these results are synchronous with Pharaohs of pre-
dynastic period (5550 BC – 3050 BC).
The paleogeomorphological map constructed of Luxor area depending upon the available paleogeomorphological and
geoarchaeological evidence; it shows that the Nile River course in Luxor area was wider than the present time, where its width
ranged from 5.6 km to 3.4 km, and contained many accumulated alluvial islands and sandbars which separated inside the river
channel, These fluvial islands formed during three consecutive stages of ancient floods by accumulation of flood sediments on
the current floodplain, but it separated by a limestone boulders layer which accumulated from the eastern desert wadis
connected to The Nile River south of Luxor area as a result of climate change during The Holocene.
IV. CONCLUSION
The geomorphological and geoarchaeological evidence shows that the Nile River course in Luxor area was around 4.5
km wide and contained many islands and sandbars which separated inside the river channel, now appearing as scattered mounds
inside the floodplain. Upper Egypt has migrated during the historic times to the east up to five kilometers and become far away
from the ancient temples, quarries, and harbours. It has also become as well as become more meandering and narrower than
before.
The southern part of the Nile River course in Upper Egypt is stable after it has settled as a canyon during the historic
times due to tectonic factors. The next step will be to start manual auger drilling, grain-size distribution, and paleocurrent
directions analysis to reconstruct the paleogeomorphological map.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The author would like to thank his students Emad El Bardan, Enas Farghaly and Islam Hamdy for their helping in the
geomorphic mapping and field surveying for this work.
REFERENCES:
Boraik, M., Ghilardi M., Bakhit, S., Hafez, A., Ali, M.H., Masekh, S., Mahmoud, A.G., 2010, Geomorphological Investigations in the Western part of the
Karnak Temple (Quay and Ancient Harbour). First Results, Cahiers de Karnak, v.13, pp. 101-109.
Bunbury, J.M., Graham, A., Hunter, M.A., 2008, Stratigraphic Landscape Analysis: Charting the Holocene Movements of the Nile at Karnak through
Ancient Egyptian Time, Geoarchaeology: An International Journal, v. 23, no. 3, pp. 351–373.
Buzon, M., Simonetti, A., Creaser, R., 2007, Migration in the Nile Valley during the New Kingdom period: a preliminary strontium isotope study, Journal
of Archaeological Science, v.34, no.9, pp.1391-1401.
Daressy, G., 1903, Le palaisd'Aménophis III et le BirketHabou. ASAE, v.4, pp. 165-170.
Ghilardi, M., Boraik, M., 2011, Reconstructing the Holocene depositional environments in the western part of Ancient Karnak temples complex (Egypt): a
geoarchaeological approach, Journal of Archaeological Science,v.38, no.12, pp. 3204-3216.
Ghiardi, M., Tristant, Y., Boraik, M., 2012, Nile River evolution in Upper Egypt during the Holocene: paleoenvironmental implications for the Pharaonic
sites of Karnak and Coptos, Géomorphologie, v. 18, no.1, pp. 7-22.
Hillier, J., Bunbury, J., Graham, A., 2007, Monuments on a migrating Nile, Journal of Archaeological Science, v.34, pp.1011-1015.
Hope, C., 1978, Excavations at Malkata and the BirketHabu 1971-1974: Jar Sealings and Amphorae of the 18th Dynasty: A Technological
Study (= Egyptology Today, 2, 5). Warminster: Aris and Pmoundips.

icshge.org
Lauffray, J., 1971, Abordsoccidentaux du premier pylône de Karnak: le Dromos, la tribune et les aménagementsportuaires. Rapport sur les travaux de
Karnak, activités du « Centre Franco Egyptien des temples de Karnak » (campagne de travaux 1969-1970), pp.77-144.
Lauffray, J., 1975, La tribune du quai de Karnak et Safavissa. Compte-rendu des fouillesmenéesen (1971-1972) (2e campagne). Karnak, pp. 43-76.
Legrain, G., 1929, Les temples de Karnak, pp. 3-27.
Upmound, E. P., 1988, Egyptian Towns and Cities. Shire Egyptology Series 8.
Vermeersch, P., Neer, W., 2015, Nile behaviour and Late Paleolithic humans in Upper Egypt during the Late Pleistocene, Quaternary Science Reviews, v.
130, pp. 155–167.

icshge.org
Creating an effective cohesion policy for Europe 2020

Paczoski, A.,1,* and Cirella, G.T.2
1
Economic Policy Department, Faculty of Economics, University of Gdansk, Sopot, Poland; * paczoski@gnu.univ.gda.pl
2
Chair of Transport Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Gdansk, Sopot, Poland
Abstract—Cohesion policy is one of the most important elements of the European Union’s (EU) integrated processes.
Evaluating this type of mechanism can show the efficiency of European policy’s convergence processes and its elimination of
development inequalities between regions (i.e., countries) [Molle, 2007]. European funds cost taxpayers money that is invested
on convergence information (i.e., the classification of country-by-country datasets). The last financial crises brought a
significant negative influence on the European economy. One of the options has been to offer more autonomy (i.e.,
responsibility) for each country’s economic policy. Europe 2020 Strategy brought a new challenge for its Member States.
There has been a varying pace of success in obtaining strategic goals throughout the EU. Countries should try to seek
opportunities in endogenous growth; cohesion policy can assist with such development. This paper presents only preliminary
findings.
Keywords—cohesion policy, Europe 2020 Strategy, doing business, enlargement
I. INTRODUCTION
HE European Union’s (EU) current stratagem for improved cooperation is its Europe 2020 Strategy. One challenging
T aspect of the Strategy is its cohesion policy. Cohesion policy examines the efficiency of convergence processes as well as
the elimination of development inequalities between countries. It is a crucial, basic and functioning foundation for an
integrative EU. Cohesion policy integrates funds for a number of development projects, which use The Europe 2020 Strategy.
This research presents EU countries’ achievement and target data in retrospect of Europe 2020; it underlines the important
condition for private businesses in their process of building a stable economy. Our main question is how EU policy can evolve,
with the use of integrated cohesion policy, and how it can be linked in with the new Strategy (i.e., Europe 2020). In this paper
we examine and present the condition in EU countries strategic targets between 2011 and 2016.
II. UNDERSTANDING COHESION POLICY

The term – cohesion policy appeared in Rome Treaty (1957), the meaning of the term is the strengthening of the Union’s
economy and its harmonised development – in the way it decreases inequalities between individual regions and level of
undeveloped regions in Member States. In the process of overall harmonious development, the Union shall develop and pursue
its actions leading to the strengthening of its economic, social and territorial cohesion [EU Cohesion Policy, Reassessing.
2016]. The Union shall reduce disparities between the levels of development of the various regions and the backwardness of
the least favoured regions. The most attention shall be paid to rural areas, areas affected by industrial transition, and regions
which suffer from severe and permanent natural or demographic handicaps such as the northernmost regions with low
population density and island, cross-border and mountain regions. The European tools are intended to help to redress the main
regional imbalances in the Union through participation in the development and structural adjustment of regions which
development is lagging behind and in the conversion of declining industrial regions [The Treaty on Functioning of the
European Union]. The Maastricht Treaty established European Union emphasized the term cohesion, which became one of the
most important directive in the European policy [Pastuszka, 2012].
III. METHODOLOGY
The problems in this paper considers the essence of cohesion policy based on social, economic and geographical similarity
– given countries which fulfil the strategy versus not. This process is important in supporting private business – essential to
the EU’s economy. The paper started with the recognition of cohesion policies dating back from 2007 to 2013 and then from
2014 to 2020. The next step was to connect the condition with the private sector. The data used comes from Eurostat and
ranked according to business. The data has been ordered by countries (i.e., at a regional scale). This paper elucidates
preliminary findings for the purpose of review, originality and research and development.
IV. RESULTS
Observed data published by Eurostat depict possible considerations for countries with associated targets in comparison
with the Europe 2020 targets (Table 1, 2, 3 and 4).
TABLE I
EUROPE 2020 TARGETS IN EU COUNTRIES (2011–2013)
Group of Employment (age group Expenditure on R&D Tertiary education Early leavers education People at risk of
countries 20 – 64, target 75% (% of GDP), target 3% attainment age group 30 and training, target poverty or social
of GDP – 34 reduction below below 10% exclusion (%), target 20
40% million fewer people
Year 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013

icshge.org
Benelux 71,5 71,9 71,6 1,8 1,79 1,8 43,9 45,2 46,1 9,2 9,6 8,8 17,8 18,3 18,6
(average)
Belgium 67,3 67,2 67,2 2,15 2,24 2,28 42,6 43,9 42,7 12,3 12,0 11,0 21,0 21,6 20,8
Netherlands 77,0 77,2 76,5 1,89 1,97 1,98 41,1 42,2 43,1 9,1 8,8 9,2 15,7 15,0 15,9
Luxembourg 70,1 71,4 71,1 1,41 1,16 1,16 48,2 49,6 52,5 6,2 8,1 6,1 16,8 18,4 19,0
Scandinavia 76,3 76,3 76,2 3,3 3,2 3,18 44,7 45,6 45,6 8,7 8,5 8,1 18,0 17,5 17,5
(average)
Denmark 75,7 75,4 75,6 2,94 2,97 3,03 41,2 43,0 43,4 9,6 9,1 8,0 17,6 17,5 18,3
Finland 73,8 74,0 73,3 3,64 3,43 3,32 46,0 45,8 45,1 9,8 8,9 9,3 17,9 17,2 16,0
Sweden 79,4 79,4 79,8 3,2 3,28 3,21 46,8 47,9 48,3 6,6 7,5 7,1 18,5 17,7 18,3
Northern 71,6 71,9 72,5 2,2 2,2 2,2 38,7 40,1 40,9 11,5 10,6 9,5 22,1 22,3 22,4
Western
Countries
(average)
Austria 75,2 75,6 75,5 2,68 2,81 2,81 23,8 26,3 27,3 8,3 7,6 7,3 19,2 18,5 18,8
France 69,3 69,4 69,6 2,19 2,23 2,23 43,3 43,5 44,1 11,9 11,5 9,7 19,3 19,1 18,1
Germany 76,3 76,7 77,1 2,8 2,88 2,94 30,7 32,0 33,1 11,7 10,6 9,9 19,9 19,6 20,3
Ireland 63,8 63,7 65,5 1,53 1,58 1,56 49,7 51,1 52,6 10,8 9,7 8,4 29,4 30,3 29,9
U.K. 73,6 74,2 74,9 1,69 1,63 1,63 45,8 47,1 47,6 15,0 13,6 12,4 22,7 24,1 24,8
Middle and 65,3 65,9 66,4 1,0 1,2 1,3 27,9 29,6 31,5 6,7 7,0 7,3 23,6 24,0 23,7
Eastern
Europe
(average)
Czech 70,9 71,5 72,5 1,56 1,79 1,91 23,7 25,6 26,7 4,9 5,5 5,4 15,3 15,4 14,6
Republic
Hungary 60,7 62,1 63,2 1,2 1,27 1,41 28,1 29,9 31,9 11,2 11,5 11,8 31,5 33,5 34,8
Poland 64,5 64,7 64,9 0,75 0,89 0,87 36,5 39,1 40,5 5,6 5,7 5,6 27,2 26,7 25,8
Slovakia 65,0 65,1 65,0 0,67 0,81 0,83 23,2 23,7 26,9 5,1 5,3 6,4 20,6 20,5 19,8
Balkan 62,8 62,6 62,9 1,05 1,1 1,11 27,5 27,9 29,5 9,4 9,6 9,6 35,5 36,2 36,0
Countries
(average)
Bulgaria 62,9 63,0 63,5 0,55 0,62 0,65 27,3 26,9 29,4 11,8 12,5 12,5 49,1 49,3 48,0
Croatia 57,0 55,4 57,2 0,75 0,75 0,81 24,5 23,7 25,6 4,1 4,2 4,5 32,6 32,6 29,9
Romania 62,8 63,8 63,9 0,49 0,48 0,39 20,4 21,8 22,8 17,5 17,4 17,3 40,9 43,2 41,9
Slovenia 68,4 68,3 67,2 2,43 2,58 2,59 37,9 39,2 40,1 4,2 4,4 3,9 19,3 19,6 20,4
Baltic 67,9 69,6 70,9 1,3 1,3 1,1 40,6 41,8 45,2 9,9 9,1 8,6 32,1 30,7 29,8
Countries
(average)
Estonia 70,6 72,2 73,3 2,34 2,16 1,74 40,2 39,5 43,7 10,6 10,3 9,7 23,1 23,4 23,5
Latvia 66,3 68,1 69,7 0,7 0,66 0,6 35,9 37,2 40,7 11,6 10,6 9,8 40,1 36,2 35,1
Lithuania 66,9 68,5 69,9 0,9 0,9 0,95 45,7 48,6 51,3 7,4 6,5 6,3 33,1 32,5 30,8
Southern 64,4 62,5 61,5 0.9 0,9 0,9 31,3 32,8 33,9 19,1 17,8 16,6 26,2 27,9 28,4
Countries
(average)
Cyprus 73,4 70,2 67,2 0,46 0,43 0,48 46,2 49,9 47,8 11,3 11,4 9,1 24,6 27,1 27,8
Greece 59,6 55,0 52,9 0,67 0,69 0,78 29,1 31,2 34,9 12,9 11,3 10,1 31,0 34,6 35,7
Italy 61,2 61,0 59,8 1,21 1,26 1,25 20,3 21,7 22,4 18,2 17,6 17,0 28,1 29,9 28,5
Malta 61,6 63,1 64,8 0,70 0,87 0,85 23,4 24,9 26,0 22,7 21,1 20,8 22,1 23,1 24,0
Portugal 68,8 66,3 65,4 1,46 1,37 1,36 26,7 27,8 30,0 23,0 20,5 18,9 24,4 25,3 27,5
Spain 62,0 59,6 58,6 1,32 1,27 1,24 41,9 41,5 42,3 26,3 24,7 23,6 26,7 27,2 27,3
Source: based on Eurostat
TABLE II
EUROPE 2020 TARGETS IN EU COUNTRIES (2014–2016, CONTINUATION)
Group of Employment (age group Expenditure on R&D Tertiary education Early leavers education People at risk of
countries 20 – 64, target 75% (% of GDP), target 3% attainment age group 30 and training, target poverty or social
of GDP – 34 reduction below below 10% exclusion (% and 1000
40% persons), target 20
million fewer people
Year 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016
Benelux 71,6 71,5 71,8 1,9 1,9 1,9 47,1 47,1 48,6 8,2 9,2 7,4 18,9 18,7 19,1
(average)
Belgium 67,3 67,2 67,7 2,39 2,47 2,49 43,8 42,7 45,6 9,8 10,1 8,8 21,2 21,1 20,7
Netherlands 75,4 76,4 77,1 2,00 2,00 2,03 44,8 46,3 45,7 8,7 8,2 8,0 16,5 16,4 16,7
Luxembourg 72,1 70,9 70,7 1,26 1,27 1,24 52,7 52,3 54,6 6,1 9,3 5,5 19,0 18,5 19,8
Scandinavia 76,5 76,6 77,3 3,1 3,0 2,9 46,7 47,8 48,3 8,0 8,0 7,5 17,8 17,7 17,2
(average)
Denmark 75,9 76,5 77,4 2,91 2,96 2,87 44,9 47,6 47,7 7,8 7,8 7,2 17,9 17,7 16,8
Finland 73,1 72,9 73,3 3,17 2,90 2,75 45,3 45,5 46,1 9,5 9,2 7,9 17,3 16,8 16,6
Sweden 80,5 80,5 81,2 3,15 3,27 3,25 49,9 50,2 51,0 6,7 7,0 7,4 18,2 18,6 18,3
Northern 73,1 73,7 74,5 2,3 2,2 2,2 43,0 43,2 43,5 9,4 8,8 8,8 22,0 21,1 20,5
Western
Countries
(average)
Austria 74,2 74,3 74,8 3,07 3,05 3,09 40,0 38,7 40,1 7,0 7,3 6,9 19,2 18,3 18,0
France 69,3 69,5 70,0 2,23 2,27 2,25 43,7 45,0 43,6 11,9 9,0 9,2 18,5 17,7 18,2

icshge.org
Germany 77,7 78,0 78,6 2,87 2,92 2,94 31,4 32,3 33,2 9,5 10,1 10,3 20,6 20,0 19,7
Ireland 68,1 69,9 71,4 1,50 1,20 1,18 52,2 51,9 52,5 6,9 7,0 6,2 27,7 26,0 24,2
U.K. 76,2 76,8 77,5 1,67 1,67 1,69 47,7 47,9 48,2 11,8 10,8 11,2 24,1 23,5 22,2
Middle and 68,1 69,8 70,6 1,3 1,4 1,2 32,8 34,1 35,5 7,2 7,5 7,9 22,4 21,0 19,9
Eastern
Europe
(average)
Czech 73,5 74,8 71,8 1,97 1,93 1,68 28,2 30,1 32,8 5,5 6,2 6,6 14,8 14,0 13,3
Republic
Hungary 66,7 68,9 71,5 1,35 1,36 1,21 34,1 34,3 33,0 11,4 11,6 12,4 31,8 28,2 26,3
Poland 66,5 67,8 69,3 0,94 1,00 0,97 42,1 43,4 44,6 5,4 5,3 5,2 24,7 23,4 21,9
Slovakia 65,9 67,7 69,8 0,88 1,18 0,79 26,9 28,4 31,5 6,7 6,9 7,4 18,4 18,4 18,1
Balkan 64,4 65,7 66,4 1,08 1,1 1,03 32,2 32,9 33,2 9,5 10,1 10,0 32,5 31,7 31,4
Countries
(average)
Bulgaria 65,1 67,1 67,7 0,79 0,96 0,78 30,9 32,1 33,8 12,9 13,4 13,8 40,1 41,3 40,4
Croatia 59,2 60,6 61,4 0,78 0,84 0,85 32,1 30,8 29,3 2,8 2,8 2,8 29,3 29,1 27,9
Romania 65,7 66,0 66,3 0,38 0,49 0,48 25,0 25,6 25,6 18,1 19,1 18,5 40,3 37,4 38,8
Slovenia 67,7 69,1 70,1 2,37 2,20 2,00 41,0 43,4 44,2 4,4 5,0 4,9 20,4 19,2 18,4
Baltic 72,3 74,1 75,0 1,1 1,0 0,9 45,5 48,1 48,9 8,8 9,2 8,6 28,7 28,1 27,7
Countries
(average)
Estonia 74,3 76,5 76,6 1,45 1,49 1,28 43,2 45,3 45,4 12,0 12,2 10,9 26,0 24,2 24,4
Latvia 70,7 72,5 73,2 0,69 0,63 0,44 39,9 41,3 42,8 8,5 9,9 10,0 32,7 30,9 28,5
Lithuania 71,8 73,3 75,2 1,03 1,04 0,85 53,3 57,6 58,7 5,9 5,5 4,8 27,3 29,3 30,1
Southern 62,4 63,7 65,1 1,0 1,0 0,9 35,6 36,8 37,8 15,1 13,5 13,4 28,7 28,5 27,7
Countries
(average)
Cyprus 67,6 67,9 68,7 0,51 0,48 0,50 52,5 54,5 53,4 6,8 5,2 7,6 27,4 28,9 27,7
Greece 53,3 54,9 56,2 0,83 0,97 1,01 37,2 40,4 42,7 9,0 7,9 6,2 36,0 35,7 35,6
Italy 59,9 60,5 61,6 1,34 1,34 1,29 23,9 25,3 26,2 15,0 14,7 13,8 28,3 28,7 30,0
Malta 66,4 67,8 69,6 0,72 0,77 0,61 26,5 27,8 29,9 20,3 19,8 19,7 23,8 22,4 20,1
Portugal 67,6 69,1 70,6 1,29 1,24 1,27 31,3 31,9 34,6 17,4 13,7 14,0 27,5 26,6 25,1
Spain 59,9 62,0 63,9 1,24 1,22 1,19 42,3 40,9 40,1 21,9 20,0 19,0 29,2 28,6 27,9
TABLE III
EUROPE 2020 TARGETS IN EU COUNTRIES
Group of countries Greenhouse gas emissions (base year 1990), target 20% or Share of renewable energy in gross final consumption, target
30% lower than 1990 20% of energy from renewable
Year 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013

Benelux (average) 92,7 90,2 88,9 4,6 5,0 5,3
Belgium 84,5 82,4 82,5 6,3 7,2 7,5
Netherlands 93,0 90,6 90,7 4,5 4,7 4,8
Luxembourg 100,5 97,7 93,6 2,9 3,1 3,5
Scandinavia 88,8 82,5 83,0 35,0 37,1 38,7
(average)
Denmark 84,0 77,5 79,9 23,5 25,7 27,4
Finland 96,5 88,8 89,9 32,8 34,4 36,7
Sweden 85,9 81,2 79,2 48,8 51,1 52,0
Northern Western 89,9 89,8 89,9 12,8 13,7 14,5
Countries (average)
Austria 106,4 103,0 103,3 30,6 31,5 32,4
France 90,3 90,3 90,2 11,1 13,4 14,1
Germany 74,6 75,2 76,6 11,4 12,1 12,4
Ireland 104,6 105,2 105,4 6,5 7,1 7,7
U.K. 73,6 75,5 73,8 4,2 4,6 5,7
Middle and Eastern 71,6 68,9 67,2 11,4 12,4 12,9
Europe (average)
Czech Republic 69,7 67,6 65,0 10,9 12,8 13,8
Hungary 68,4 64,3 61,3 14,0 15,5 16,2
Poland 86,9 85,4 84,7 10,3 10,9 11,4
Slovakia 61,3 58,3 57,7 10,3 10,4 10,1
Balkan Countries 76,8 73,1 69,0 20,3 21,6 23,3
(average)
Bulgaria 63,4 58,5 53,5 14,3 16,0 19,0
Croatia 86,2 80,7 76,9 25,4 26,8 28,0
Romania 51,8 50,6 46,8 21,4 22,8 23,9
Slovenia 105,7 102,6 98,9 20,3 20,8 22,4
Baltic Countries 47,1 46,0 46,5 26,3 27,6 28,5
(average)
Estonia 52,5 49,8 54,2 25,5 25,8 25,6
Latvia 44,7 44,1 43,8 33,5 35,7 37,1

icshge.org
Lithuania 44,2 44,1 41,5 19,9 21,4 22,7

Southern Countries 125,7 123,3 114,6 11,6 12,9 14,1
(average)
Cyprus 158,0 149,2 137,2 6,0 6,8 8,1
Greece 111,8 108,4 99,4 10,9 13,5 15,0
Italy 95,8 91,9 86,1 12,9 15,4 16,7
Malta 145,8 153,1 139,4 1,9 2,8 3,7
Portugal 116,7 113,7 110,8 24,6 24,6 25,7
Spain 126,1 123,8 114,6 13,2 14,3 15,3
TABLE IV
EUROPE 2020 TARGETS IN EU COUNTRIES (CONTINUATION)
Group of countries Greenhouse gas emissions (base year 1990), target 20% or Share of renewable energy in gross final consumption, target
30% lower than 1990 20% of energy from renewables
Year 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016

Benelux (average) 85,7 87,0 86,9 6,0 6,2 6,7
Belgium 78,8 81,5 81,5 8,0 7,9 8,7
Netherlands 87,4 91,3 91,6 5,5 5,8 6,0
Luxembourg 90,8 88,3 87,5 4,5 5,0 5,4
Scandinavia (average) 78,5 75,7 78,0 40,3 41,3 41,6
Denmark 74,4 70,9 73,9 29,6 31,0 32,2
Finland 84,1 79,3 84,0 38,7 39,2 38,7
Sweden 77,1 76,8 76,1 52,5 53,8 53,8
Northern Western 86,2 87,5 87,9 15,4 16,0 16,6
Countries (average)
Austria 98,6 101,8 103,1 33,0 32,8 33,5
France 84,8 85,7 85,6 14,7 15,1 16,0
Germany 73,4 73,7 74,0 13,8 14,6 14,8
Ireland 105,3 109,5 113,4 8,7 9,2 9,5
U.K. 68,8 66,7 63,6 7,0 8,5 9,3
Middle and Eastern 65,7 67,0 68,0 13,2 13,5 13,1
Europe (average)
Czech Republic 64,1 64,6 65,6 15,0 15,0 14,9
Hungary 62,0 65,3 65,8 14,6 14,4 14,2
Poland 81,9 82,7 85,0 11,5 11,7 11,3
Slovakia 54,8 55,4 55,6 11,7 12,9 12,0
Balkan Countries 66,8 68,3 68,7 23,0 23,5 23,3
(average)
Bulgaria 56,4 59,5 57,0 18,0 18,2 18,8
Croatia 74,3 75,8 76,2 27,8 29,0 28,3
Romania 46,8 47,2 45,8 24,8 24,8 25,0
Slovenia 89,6 90,7 95,2 21,5 21,9 21,3
Baltic Countries 45,7 43,5 44,8 29,4 30,7 30,5
(average)
Estonia 52,3 44,7 48,6 26,3 28,6 28,8
Latvia 43,4 43,7 43,8 38,7 37,6 37,2
Lithuania 41,5 42,1 42,0 23,6 25,8 25,6
Southern Countries 115,1 111,9 109,7 14,8 15,2 15,6
(average)
Cyprus 143,3 143,8 152,9 8,9 9,4 9,3
Greece 96,5 93,0 89,7 15,3 15,4 15,2
Italy 83,1 84,7 83,8 17,1 17,5 17,4
Malta 140,9 112,0 99,4 4,7 5,0 6,0
Portugal 111,0 118,3 115,8 27,0 28,0 28,5
Spain 115,6 119,7 116,4 16,1 16,2 17,3

The regional diversity of Europe 2020 indicators is connected with the condition of its economies and degree of innovation
and technical development of every country in the appointed regions. The regions with poor results may reform their economy
and institutional frameworks (e.g., educational system) to reinforce their position and develop more competitively. Another
problem is the raising of capital for private business by-way-of ecological technology. We believe it is possible that public
sector entities should spend more money for climatic and energy investment research (i.e., from taxpayer funds).
Cohesion policy is important tool for harmonised development. Fifth and sixth reports underlined the role of the Lisbon
Strategy’s Cohesion Policy. These reports should be prioritised to improve such policy development. Europe 2020 is an
important milestone. The best results obtained came out of Scandinavia, Benelux and Northern-Western countries (i.e., better
employment, expenditure on research and development, tertiary education, early leavers education and training, less people at
risk of poverty and social inclusion). When considering climatic and energy indicators the best results came from Scandinavia,

icshge.org
Baltic and Balkan Countries. The worst results came from Southern countries. Fundamental problems in the Union is to try to
find specific solutions to problems, regardless of region (i.e., country) and to best discover what requirements (e.g., institutional
framework, transport infrastructure, education or innovation policy) can be implemented easiest for a sustainable Europe.
REFERENCES
An Agenda for Growing Europe: Making the Economic System Deliver, Sapir Report, 2003, http://www.euractive.com
Annual Report of the Cohesion Fund. EU Regional Policy, European Commission.
Barbier J. C., Tracing the Fate of EU “Social Policy”. Changes in Political Discourse from “Lisbon Strategy” to “Europe 2020”, “International Labour
Review”, No. 151/2012.
Barca F., An Agenda for a Reformed Cohesion Policy. A Place – Based Approach to meeting European Union Challenges and Expectations. Independent
Report Prepared at the Request of D. Hübner, Commissioner for Regional Policy, April 2009,
http://ec.europe.eu/regional_policy/archive/policy/future/pdf/report_barca
Bertolini P., Pagliacci F., Lisbon Strategy and EU Countries Performance: Social Inclusion and Sustainability, Working Paper of Department of Economics
of University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, No. 0648/2010.
Boldrin M., Canova F., Europe’s Regions: Income Disparities and Regional Policies, “Economic Policy” nr 32/2000.
Cohesion Policy and Development of the European Union’s Regions in the Perspective of 2020, Editor Kukuła A. J., The John Paul II Catholic University
of Lublin, Institute of Political Science and International Affairs, KUL, Lublin 2015.
Consolidated version of The Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union / Title XVIII: Economic, Social and Territorial Cohesion, Article 174 and
176.
Ederveen S., de Groot H. L. F., Nahuis R., Fertile Soil for Structural Funds? A Panel Data Analysis of the Conditional Effectiveness of European Cohesion
Policy, “Kyklos” nr 1/2006.
EU Cohesion Policy, Reassessing Performance and Direction, Edited Bachtler J., Berkowitz P., Hardy S., Muravska T., Routledge, London 2016.
Europe 2020 European Commission, http://ec.europa.eu/europe-2020-in-a-nutshell/targets/index_en.htm
European Union at the Crossroads: The European Perspectives after the Global Crisis, editor Agh A., Budapest College of Communication, Business and
Arts, 2011.
Eurostat.
Gorzelak G., Wykorzystanie środków UE dla rozwoju kraju – wstępne analizy, „Studia Regionalne i Lokalne” nr 3/2014.
Grosse T. G., Polityka spójności w dobie kryzysu strefy euro, „Studia Regionalne i Lokalne” nr 1/2016.
Heinelt H., Petzold W., The Structural Funds and EU Cohesion Policy, in Handbook of European Policies, Interpretive Approaches to the EU, edited by
Heinelt H., Münch S., Edward Elgar, Cheltenham UK, Northampton USA, 2018.
Horizon 2020, First Results, Applications, European Commission, Directorate – General for Research and Innovation, Luxembourg 2015
Investment for Jobs and Growth, Promoting Development and Good Governance in EU Regions and Cities, European Commission, Brussels 2014.
Investing in Europe’s Future, Fifth Report on Economic, Social and Territorial Cohesion, European Commission, Directorate – General for Regional Policy,
November 2010.
Koczor M., Tokarski P., From Lisbon to Europe 2020, Lisbon Strategy Implementation in 2010: Assessments and Prospects, Warsaw: Polish Institute for
International Affairs, 2011.
Komornicki T., Assessment of Infrastructure Construction, Its Role in Regional Development, FP7 GRINCOH, Warszawa 2014.
Krings T., Marlier E., Natali D., Europe 2020, Towards a More Social EU? „Journal of European Social Policy” 2012.
Mendez C., Bachtler J., Administrative reform and Unintended Consequences: An Assessment of the EU Cohesion Policy Audit Explosion, „Journal of
European Public Policy”, Vol. 18/2011.
Mendez C., Bachtler J., Financial Compliance in the European Union: A Cross National Assessment of Financial Correction Patterns and Causes in
Cohesion Policy, „Journal of Common Market Studies” No. 3, Vol. 55/2017.
Mohl P., Empirical Evidence on Macroeconomic Effects of EU Cohesion Policy, Springer Nature, Switzerland 2017.
Molle W., European Cohesion Policy, Abington 2007.
Olczyk M., Structural Heterogeneity Between EU 15 and 12 New EU Members – the Obstacle to Lisbon Strategy Implementation? “Equilibrium Quarterly
Journal of Economics Policy” Vol. 9, Issue 4/2014.
Palne Kovacs I., The Future of European Cohesion Policy: The Paradoxes in Domestic Governance of CEE Countries, in: The European Perspectives after
the Global Crises, A. Agh (ed.), Budapest College of Communication, Business and Arts, 2011.
Pastuszka S., Polityka regionalna Unii Europejskiej, Difin, Warszawa 2012.
Polityki europejskie, perspektywa finansowa UE 2014 – 2020, editor Nitszke A., Kontekst, Kraków 2015.
Practical Dimension Implementation the EU Cohesion Policy (2007 – 2013), (2014 – 2020), Editor Kukuła A. J., KUL, „Annals of Social Sciences”
No.3/2017
Ranking of economies – Doing Business – World Bank Group, http://www.doing business.org/rankings
Renda A. The Review of the Europe 2020 Strategy: From Austerity to prosperity, CEPS Policy Brief, No. 322, 27 October 2014.
Szlachta J., Strategia Europa 2020 a europejska polityka spójności po 2013 roku (2011),
http://kolegia.sgh.waw.pl/pl/KAE/struktura/IRG/publikacje/Documents/pim88_9.pdf
Tackling Early School Leaving: a Key Contribution to the Europe 2020, the European Economic and Social Committee and Committee of Regions,
Brussels, European Commission, COM (2011) 18 final, http://eur-lex.europe.eu
The Lisbon Strategy 2000 – 2010, an Analysis and Evaluation of the Methods Used and Results Achieved, Directorate General for Internal Policies, Policy
Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy 2010.
Żbik A., Strategia lizbońska, http://www.uniaeuropejska.org/startegia-lizbońska

icshge.org
Current literature and research opportunities in executive compensation:

Evidence from a developing economy
Matemane, R.
Economic and Management Sciences, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa; reon.matemane@up.ac.za
Abstract—Executive compensation is one of the most important corporate governance mechanisms that companies use to
overcome agency problems. Increasing levels of executive compensation without commensurate increase in organisational
performance has sparked debate in the academic circles, policy makers and other interested stakeholders. Be that as it may, a
systematic review of contemporary business literature on executive compensation in the context of developing economies is
lacking. The aim of this study is to present a comprehensive review and critical reflection on the current state of literature
regarding executive compensation in a developing country, South Africa. Papers, journal articles, theses and dissertations
covering the period between 2011 and 2018 will be obtained through internet and reviewed. The review is envisaged to help
with the following: identify gaps in the existing literature, evaluate inconsistent findings, discuss data sources and associated
methodological approaches with a view to suggest opportunities for future studies. The review will be organised according to
the two broad categories, namely: Firstly, conceptual and theoretical framework. Secondly, South African studies which are
further divided into: 1) relationship between executive compensation and company performance, 2) corporate governance and
executive compensation and 3) cross-country studies. For each of the category, major findings will be discussed whilst gaps
in the literature and the opportunities for future studies are also outlined.
Keywords—executive compensation, remuneration, corporate governance, developing economy, South Africa
I. INTRODUCTION
E XECUTIVE compensation is a corporate governance mechanism that companies uses to align the interest of the
management with those of the shareholders (Borisova, Brockman, Salas, & Zagorchev, 2012; Huang, Huang, & Shih,
2012; Livne, Markarian, & Mironov, 2013). It is made up of a number of components ranging from cash to equity based
incentives (Ezeani & Williams, 2017). It is well documented that the executive compensation has been escalating at
astronomical levels in the recent past (Gregory‐Smith, Thompson, & Wright, 2014; Shue & Townsend, 2017). The escalation
is sometimes not warranted by any concomitant improvement in companies’ performance (Perkins, 2017; Piketty, 2014).
Regulatory interventions aimed at curbing the situation has proven futile as the executives always find alternative ways to
retain their lucrative remuneration within the law. For examples, when the laws and the accounting requirements on equity
based compensation changed the overall executive compensation continued escalating as the companies merely moved the
amounts to other components
In the USA, the average CEO’s compensation increased by 300% between 1990 and 2010 (Shue & Townsend, 2017) .
Most recently, Snap Inc., a USA domiciled company awarded its CEO, Evan Spiegel an amount of $638 million (circa R7.8
billion) in stock awards and compensation. This was in spite of the company generating no cash from its operations and in fact
reporting a loss of $720 million (circa R8.8 billion) in 2017 (Wolverton, 2018) It was found that the compensation of a highest
paid director in the UK increased by 60% on average between 1995 and 2002 (Gregg, Jewell, & Tonks, 2005, p. 14).
Meanwhile, the average worker had to work for a period of 137 years before his salary can match that of an executive in recent
years in the UK (Petroff, 2018).
South Africa (SA) is not insulated from the executive remunerations that are shooting through the roof. In 2016, Shoprite
CEO, Whiteney Basson received R50 million bonus plus R50 million in salary. This caused his total take home pay to jump
to R100 million, 725 times more than an average worker (Amato, 2017) His peers in the banking industry have also been
enjoying generous pays. For example, Maria Ramos, Absa bank CEO pocketed a total remuneration of R37.6 million for the
2017 financial year whilst her peer at Nedbank earned a total of R38.1 million for 2016 financial year (Writer, 2018). This
heightens the ever-growing gap between salaries in the top management and that of the general lower level employees. It also
exacerbates the negative perception of the general public regarding the executive compensation (Dunne, Grady, & Weir, 2018;
Edmans, Gabaix, & Jenter, 2017; Magnan & Martin, 2018).
II. OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

The study aims at evaluating the state of art in the body of knowledge pertaining to the executive compensation in South
Africa. Furthermore, suggestions will be made on what the future studies can investigate to fill gaps identified in the literature.
III. LITERATURE REVIEW

A. Conceptual and theoretical framework
Executive compensation is defined as the entirety of every single money related reward and privileges allowed to the
executives in order to attract, retain and motivate them to exert maximum effort in achieving the company’s objectives
(Faulkender, Kadyrzhanova, Prabhala, & Senbet, 2010; K. W. Shaw & Zhang, 2010). It is usually made up of annual salary,
bonus, shares and share options incentives (Moore, 2014). Terms and concepts such as executive remuneration, executive pay,

icshge.org
rewards and package are often used interchangeably in the literature and in practice to refer to the executive compensation.
The fundamental theory underpinning executive compensation is agency theory. According to agency theory, agency
problems, agency costs and conflicts of interest emanate due to the separation between the managers (agents) and the owners
(principal) of the company (Berle & Means, 1932; Fama & Jensen, 1983; Jensen & Meckling, 1976). Unless properly
monitored, agents pursue their own personal interests that are not always in congruent with that of the principal. One way of
monitoring the principal and ensuring that their interests are aligned with those of the principal is the usage of executive
compensation as a corporate governance mechanism (Fernandes, Ferreira, Matos, & Murphy, 2012; Jensen & Murphy, 1990).
When looking at the executive compensation from the lenses of agency theory, there are two emerging school of thoughts
to consider: first, the efficient contracting theory which is also referred to as optimal contracting or incentive theory. Second,
the managerial power theory, which is also referred to as entrenchment theory, or board capture theory. These two theories are
opposites in terms of how they relate to the agency problem or agency cost. Efficient contracting provides solution to agency
problems whilst the managerial power theory exacerbates the agency problems (Cambini, De Masi, Paci, & Rondi, 2018). The
recent trends of rising executive compensation even when the company performance is slacking are typical of the managerial
power theory which posits that managers or the agents use their influence to extract rents from the company and to obtain as
much compensation as possible (Bebchuk & Fried, 2005; Boyd, Haynes, & Zona, 2011; Weisbach, 2007). On the other hand,
the optimal contracting theory posits that the executive compensation can be used to align the interests of the managers with
those of the principal, for example, granting the managers shares or share options can make them focus on maximising the
value of shareholders (Jensen & Meckling, 1976; Jensen & Murphy, 1990; S. N. Kaplan, 2008).
B. Executive compensation studies in South Africa
Web searches were carried out using a blend of keywords like executive compensation, remuneration, reward, pay,
company performance, financial performance, non-financial performance, South Africa, JSE and listed companies. Papers,
articles, theses and dissertations covering the period somewhere in the range of 2011 and 2018 were acquired through the web
searches. The greater part of the investigations concentrated on three main themes. Firstly, the relationship between executive
compensation and company performance. Second, corporate governance and executive compensation. And thirdly, cross-
country studies.
1) Relationship between executive compensation and company performance
The significant portion of the studies conducted in South Africa investigated the relationship between executive
compensation and financial performance (the variables) of companies. These include the studies such as Blerck and George
(2012); Bradley (2011); Bussin and Blair (2015); Bussin and Modau (2015); Bussin and Nel (2015); De Wet (2012); Kirsten
and du Toit (2018); Resnick (2013); Scholtz and Smit (2012); W. Shaw (2006); Steyn (2015); Theku (2015).
International studies conducted in developed countries such as UK and USA have shown inconclusive results when it
comes to the relationship between the executive compensation and company performance. In the same vein, the studies
mentioned above also showed inconclusive results. Whilst this commonality prevails between the offshore studies and those
conducted in South Africa, different measures of performance have been used in the South African studies outlined above. For
example, Kirsten and du Toit (2018) who studied the relationship between the variables in consumer goods and services
industry used earnings per share (EPS), price per share (PPS), return on equity (ROE), turnover (TO) and debt/equity ratio
(D/E) as the performance measures of the company whilst Bussin and Nel (2015) who also studied the relationship between
the variables in South African retail and consumer goods sector used the components of the DuPont model, namely: ROE,
Asset turnover, net margin and leverage to measure financial performance of the companies. All the other aforementioned
studies also used different measures of financial performance.
Different authors also measured the executive compensation differently. Theku (2015) for example used who studied the
relationship between the CEO compensation and company performance in South African mining industry only used basic
salary, fixed benefits and bonus, other components of executive compensation such as long term incentive or share based
payments were excluded. This is contrary to De Wet (2012), Steyn (2015) and Urson (2016) who used the long term incentive
and share based payments in addition to the same components . Thus the use of different measures for both the executive
compensation and company performance can be a contributing factor to the inconclusive results on the relationship between
the variables. In addition to this, the literature solely used the financial performance measures and ratios (both accounting and
market based measures) None of the studies attempted to measure firm performance through a non-financial performance
measures such as the sustainability index even though this is readily available for the companies listed on Johannesburg Stock
Exchange(JSE). Neither has there been any attempt to come up with a framework that can be used to measure the performance
from both the financial and non-financial perspective.
2) Corporate governance and executive compensation
The literature has also investigated the other aspects of corporate governance such as board diversity (Masondo, Buchling,
& Maroun, 2017), remuneration committees (Kenneth, 2014) and the extent or the use of incentives (Steenkamp & Wesson,
2018) in relation to the executive compensation in South African context.
These studies help in providing a contextual standpoint or frame of reference upon which South Africa as a developing
country can be understood with regard to the executive compensation and how it relates to its peculiar setting. For example
Masondo et al. (2017) found that even after so many years into democracy there are still inequalities between males and
females executives when it comes to their remuneration. This further exacerbates the socio-economic challenges of rampant
unemployment, poverty and inequality.

icshge.org
In his study of remuneration committees in South African listed companies, Kenneth (2014) posits that shareholders
activism is still lacking in South Africa when it comes to the issues of executive compensation. This could be emanating from
lack of sufficient disclosure of executive remuneration in companies in annual reports especially on matters relating to
performances and how bonuses are being awarded. Steenkamp and Wesson (2018) also found discrepancies with regard to
how the executive compensation is being disclosed in annual report of the South African listed companies. This suggests that
the executives could be using inadequate disclosure and limited information on share related compensation as a mechanism to
hide their true remuneration and thereby extracting rent from the companies. These challenges highlight a gap and a need in
the literature to investigate the disclosure practices of South African listed companies and the gap analysis of such practices
between the developed countries such as USA and UK. Therefore, the ensuing passage discusses the scholarly activities that
have attempted to fill this void, namely, the cross-country studies.
3) Cross-country studies
There are a number of challenges in the literature that have been highlighted in the single countries studies discussed
above. However, limited cross-country studies that corroborate the limitations highlighted are sparse. Amongst those few
studies is the one conducted by Desfontaines (2018) who investigated the pay-performance relationships between South Africa
and Australia. The study found that only insignificant portion of executive compensation in South Africa is related to company
performance whilst the opposite is true for Australian companies. Contrary to the findings of Desfontaines (2018) with regard
to the South African leg of his study, Blerck and George (2012) who studied the pay-performance relationships for South
African banks and USA banks found that pay-performance relationship was stronger in South African banks whilst it was
weaker in USA banks.
These patterns of inconsistency and inconclusiveness of the results mirror those of the single country studies highlighted
above. Whilst these study shed a light on cross-country basis, they are also focused on financial performance measures. No
attempt has been made to highlight the regulatory and disclosure requirements of the respective countries with regard to the
executive compensation. Furthermore, non-financial measures of performance have been completely ignored in these studies.
IV. RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES AND SUGGESTIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

An examination of the studies on executive compensation uncovered that the researchers have utilised diverse
measurements for a similar research objective, namely, the relationship between the executive compensation and company
performance. This frequently prompts distinctive and inconclusive results on the relationship between the variables. The
studies further focused solely on financial performance measures, non-financial performance has been ignored. Furthermore,
pay-performance type studies that have been conducted are fragmented in that they are largely performed at the industry level.
This makes it difficult to assess the relationship at a bourse level.
Developing an executive compensation performance metric that incorporates both the financial and non-financial
performance aspects of the company, taking into account the unique set of circumstances that prevails in South Africa is
unchartered waters that can be an interesting research area to explore. The two broad categories in the suggested metric,
namely, non-financial and financial may further have sub-categories. From the financial standpoint and as suggested by some
of the authors, the metric can have accounting based measures and market based measures. A starting point for the non-
financial aspect can be the current sustainability disclosure index that is mandatory for all the JSE listed companies. This can
be augmented by other tools such as the balance score-card as first developed by R. Kaplan and Norton (1992).
Additionally, future studies can perform a gap analysis on the regulatory and disclosure requirements of the executive
compensation in a developing country such as South Africa and some developed economies. This can aid the regulators and
policy makers in strengthening the regulatory and disclosure framework and aligning them to the international best practices.
This should in turn benefit the shareholders and other affected stakeholders to mitigate the agency problems and rent extraction
emanating from the executive compensation.
Given the socio-economic challenges of unemployment, poverty and inequality faced in South Africa, using the existing
models similar to the one used by Burns, Minnick, and Starks (2017); Correa and Lel (2016) and similar studies to measures
the level of inequality in executive compensation in South African setting can be a fascinating investigation. Likewise, future
studies can also investigate the level of short-terminism or myopia in executive compensation of South African companies
using the approaches similar to that of Gopalan, Milbourn, Song, and Thakor (2014)
V. CONCLUSION
The current study has reviewed the state of knowledge in the current literature on executive compensation in South Africa.
Likewise, we proposed areas that can be investigate in future studies. The most recent work which include sixteen papers,
journal articles and theses covering the period somewhere in the range of 2011 and 2018 were gotten through the web search.
The search and the analysis revealed that the majority, if not all the studies on executive compensation solely focused on pay-
performance relationship and used different ways to measure the two variables, executive compensation and company
performance. This inconsistent measurement is probably the significant contributing factor in the inconclusiveness of the
results of the studies. In addition to these the literature ignores the non-financial aspects of performance. No single study
attempted to conduct a gap analysis of regulatory and disclosure frameworks between the developed and the developing
countries. Whilst we have suggested the areas for future studies, the emphasis should be placed on the need to develop an
executive compensation performance metric that incorporate both the financial and non-financial aspects.

icshge.org
VI. LIMITATIONS
Given the time constraint and the limitation on the recentness of the studies we have looked at, a risk remains that some
of the work might not have been picked up in this study. Therefore, whilst we have conducted all the searches possible within
our reach, we do not claim that we have looked at all the executive compensation studies that have ever been conducted in
South Africa.
REFERENCES
Amato, C. (2017). Inequality: Mind the pay gap, study shows SA is among worst in the world. Retrieved from
https://www.businesslive.co.za/fm/features/2017-02-16-mind-the-pay-gap/
Bebchuk, L., & Fried, J. (2005). Pay without performance: The unfulfilled promise of executive compensation. International Company and Commercial
Law Review, 16(11), 461.
Berle, A., & Means, G. (1932). The Modern Corporation and Private Property, New York, World: Inc.
Blerck, V., & George, T. (2012). The relationship between executive remuneration at financial institutions and economic value added. (Unpublished
Master's thesis), University of Pretoria.
Borisova, G., Brockman, P., Salas, J. M., & Zagorchev, A. (2012). Government ownership and corporate governance: Evidence from the EU. Journal of
Banking & Finance, 36(11), 2917-2934.
Boyd, B. K., Haynes, K. T., & Zona, F. (2011). Dimensions of CEO–board relations. Journal of management studies, 48(8), 1892-1923.
Bradley, S. (2011). Chief executive officer compensation and the effect on company performance in a South African context. (Unpublished Master's thesis),
Rhodes University Grahamstown.
Burns, N., Minnick, K., & Starks, L. (2017). CEO tournaments: A cross-country analysis of causes, cultural influences, and consequences. Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 52(2), 519-551.
Bussin, M., & Blair, C. (2015). Financial indicators of company performance in different industries that affect CEO remuneration in South Africa. South
African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, 18(4), 534-550.
Bussin, M., & Modau, M. F. (2015). The relationship between Chief Executive Officer remuneration and financial performance in South Africa between
2006 and 2012. SA Journal of Human Resource Management, 13(1), 1-18.
Bussin, M., & Nel, M. (2015). Relationship between CEO remuneration and company financial performance in the South African retail and consumer goods
sector. Acta Commercii, 15(1), 1-11.
Cambini, C., De Masi, S., Paci, A., & Rondi, L. (2018). CEO compensation in EU telecom companies: Does the state design the right incentives?
Telecommunications Policy.
Correa, R., & Lel, U. (2016). Say on pay laws, executive compensation, pay slice, and firm valuation around the world. Journal of Financial Economics,
122(3), 500-520.
De Wet, J. (2012). Executive compensation and the EVA and MVA performance of South African listed companies. Southern African Business Review,
16(3), 57-80.
Desfontaines, P. G. (2018). Chief Executive Officer remuneration and financial performance of Australian and South African publicly listed companies.
(Unpublished Master's thesis), University of Pretoria.
Dunne, S., Grady, J., & Weir, K. (2018). Organization studies of inequality, with and beyond Piketty. Organization, 25(2), 165-185.
Edmans, A., Gabaix, X., & Jenter, D. (2017). Executive compensation: A survey of theory and evidence. Retrieved from
Ezeani, E. C., & Williams, E. (2017). Regulating Corporate Directors’ Pay and Performance: A Comparative Review. African journal of international and
comparative law, 25(4), 482-506.
Fama, E. F., & Jensen, M. C. (1983). Separation of ownership and control. The journal of law and Economics, 26(2), 301-325.
Faulkender, M., Kadyrzhanova, D., Prabhala, N., & Senbet, L. (2010). Executive compensation: An overview of research on corporate practices and
proposed reforms. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 22(1), 107-118.
Fernandes, N., Ferreira, M. A., Matos, P., & Murphy, K. J. (2012). Are US CEOs paid more? New international evidence. The Review of Financial Studies,
26(2), 323-367.
Gopalan, R., Milbourn, T., Song, F., & Thakor, A. V. (2014). Duration of executive compensation. The Journal of Finance, 69(6), 2777-2817.
Gregg, P., Jewell, S., & Tonks, I. (2005). Executive Pay and Performance in the UK 1994-2002.
Gregory‐Smith, I., Thompson, S., & Wright, P. W. (2014). CEO pay and voting dissent before and after the crisis. The Economic Journal, 124(574), F22-
F39.
Huang, H.-H., Huang, H., & Shih, P.-T. (2012). Real options and earnings-based bonus compensation. Journal of Banking & Finance, 36(8), 2389-2402.
Jensen, M. C., & Meckling, W. H. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics,
3(4), 305-360.
Jensen, M. C., & Murphy, K. J. (1990). Performance pay and top-management incentives. Journal of political economy, 98(2), 225-264.
Kaplan, R., & Norton, D. (1992). The Balanced-Scorcard: Measures That Drive Performance," Harvard Business Review, Jan.-Feb.
Kaplan, S. N. (2008). Are US CEOs Overpaid? Academy of Management Perspectives, 22(2), 5-20.
Kenneth, D. P. (2014). Remuneration Committees in South African Listed Companies. South African Journal of Accounting Research, 28(1), 41-64.
Kirsten, E., & du Toit, E. (2018). The relationship between remuneration and financial performance for companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock
Exchange. South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, 21(1), 1-10.
Livne, G., Markarian, G., & Mironov, M. (2013). Investment horizon, risk, and compensation in the banking industry. Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(9),
3669-3680.
Magnan, M., & Martin, D. (2018). Executive Compensation and Employee Remuneration: The Flexible Principles of Justice in Pay. Journal of Business
Ethics, 1-17.
Masondo, B., Buchling, M., & Maroun, W. (2017). AUD029 The relationship between executive directors’ gender and remuneration: A preliminary study.
Moore, G. (2014). Relationship between chief executive officer compensation and firm performance for US health insurance companies. Dissertation
Abstracts International: Section A. Humanities and Social Sciences, 75(08).
Perkins, S. J. (2017). The social construction of executive remuneration in the UK: Elite competition around codification and legitimation. Journal of
Organizational Effectiveness: People and Performance, 4(1), 76-88.

icshge.org
Petroff, A. (2018). The UK is trying to rein in CEO pay. It isn't working. Retrieved from https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/15/news/companies/ceo-pay-uk-
inequality/index.html
Piketty, T. (2014). Capital in the twenty-first century. London, England: Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Resnick, A. A. (2013). The relationship between executive remuneration and company performance: a study of 20 of the largest companies listed on the
Johannesburg Stock Exchange Ltd. (Unpublished Master's thesis), University of Johannesburg.
Scholtz, H., & Smit, A. (2012). Executive remuneration and company performance for South African companies listed on the Alternative Exchange (AltX).
Southern African Business Review, 16(1), 22-38.
Shaw, K. W., & Zhang, M. H. (2010). Is CEO cash compensation punished for poor firm performance? The Accounting Review, 85(3), 1065-1093.
Shaw, W. (2006). Justice, incentives and executive compensation. The ethics of executive compensation, 87-100.
Shue, K., & Townsend, R. R. (2017). Growth through rigidity: An explanation for the rise in CEO pay. Journal of Financial Economics, 123(1), 1-21.
Steenkamp, G., & Wesson, N. (2018). Share-based incentives for South African CEOs: Trends 2002− 2015. South African Journal of Accounting Research,
32(1), 46-70.
Steyn, G. F. (2015). The relationship between CEO compensation and future share returns in South Africa. (Unpublished Master's thesis), University of the
Western Cape.
Theku, M. (2015). CEO compensation sensitivity to performance in the South African mining industry. (Unpublished Master's thesis), University of
Pretoria.
Urson, M. (2016). CEO pay ratios and company performance: A study of JSE-listed consumer goods and services companies. (Unpublished Master's
thesis), University of Cape Town.
Weisbach, M. S. (2007). Optimal executive compensation versus managerial power: A review of Lucian Bebchuk and Jesse Fried's pay without
performance: The unfulfilled promise of executive compensation. Journal of Economic Literature, 45(2), 419-428.
Wolverton, T. (2018). Snap CEO Spiegel's $637 million bonus shows just how broken executive compsensation is. Retrieved from
http://www.businessinsider.com/snap-had-little-rationale-for-evan-spiegel-638-million-payday-2018-2?IR=T
Writer, S. (2018). Absa CEO Maria Ramos pockets R37 million salary. BusinessTech. Retrieved from
https://businesstech.co.za/news/banking/235517/absa-ceo-maria-ramos-pockets-r37-million-salary/

icshge.org
Gender mainstreaming in waste education programs: A conceptual

framework
dos Muchangos, L.S.1,2,* and Vaughter, P.1
1
Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability, United Nations University, 150-8325, Tokyo, Japan
2
Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University, 252-0882, Kanagawa, Japan;
*
leticia.muchangos@unu.edu
Abstract—Gender issues are present in waste management, from daily handling activities through decision-making processes. However,
explicit consideration and inclusion of gender perspectives in policies and programs for waste are limited. In waste education programs, the
disregard for views of and contribution by women has resulted in strategies that do not comprehensively address the waste issue, preventing
long-standing and sustainable outcomes, while increasing existing gender inequities. Three critical issues of waste education and gender
were identified: lack of meaningful involvement and participation of women (and other vulnerable groups) throughout the decision-making
processes of planning and implementation of waste education programs; lack of inclusion of gender specific designs and gender sensitive
approaches in the information and education materials; and, tendency to devise education strategies directed to women only, while
exempting the other stakeholders (e.g., authorities, manufacturers, distributors, and retailers) from their responsibilities. This article presents
the conceptualization of a systematic framework based on a participatory approach to mainstream gender into waste education, particularly
in urban education programs. The framework includes distinct components to assess the managing entity of waste education program and
the stages of the program, namely: needs assessment, planning, implementation and monitoring, and evaluation. This research provides
theoretical and practical contributions to waste education development practice, for academics, policymakers, and waste management
practitioners, as a prerequisite to achieve equitable and effective waste management systems for all genders.
Keywords—conceptual framework, gender issues, gender mainstreaming, participatory assessment
I. INTRODUCTION
T HEORY and practice show that there is a close link between gender equality issues and the slow progress towards
sustainable development, with gender inequalities causing high economic costs and leading to social inequities and
environmental degradation globally. Notably, women and their potential contributions to economic advances, social progress,
and environmental protection, have been marginalized [1]-[2]. For the most part, traditional development programs use pre-
established social models concerning feminine and masculine settings, which results in the reinforcement and perpetuation of
traditional roles for both men and women [3]. Therefore, to revert this trend and move closer to gender equality, it is crucial
to consider and include gender dimensions and aspects in policies and programs [4]. On the gender-and-environment nexus,
years of feminist theory, have been calling for the development of “frameworks and perspectives that allow an understanding
that women and men are not only affected by, but also have important roles to play in, enabling environmental sustainability”
[5]. Also, in the environmental arena, reference [19] shows that to improve the effectiveness of laws and regulations, the
specific target groups affected - women and men with all identified gender aspects of cultural diversity, should be addressed
appropriately with accompanying measures.
Specifically, in environmental education, humans, are commonly discussed as homogenous and ungendered, even though
significant research has been informed by feminist perspectives [6]. Though the division of labor between men and women is
changing, women still hold most the responsibility for child-care, therefore having a substantial influence on the development
of children's awareness of environmental issues, making women the first environmental educators for many [7]-[8].
Nevertheless, the knowledge and contribution of women to environmental research and frameworks have been systematically
marginalized, resulting in strategies that are fundamentally gender-blind [6], [9]-[10]. “Gender blindness is the failure to
recognize that the roles and responsibilities of women/girls and men/boys are ascribed to, or imposed upon, them in specific
social, cultural, economic and political contexts” [11]. For instance, studies have long been emphasizing the influence of
gender issues on the views, handling, and management of waste, despite waste policies and programs lacking the inclusion of
gender perspectives [12].
Focusing on waste education, three main identifiable issues concerning gender are relevant for discussion. First, there is
a consistent lack of meaningful involvement and participation of women and other vulnerable groups throughout the decision-
making processes of planning and implementation of waste education programs, even though they usually have a significant
role as users and managers of natural resources and waste [8], [13]. All the more so, in initiatives that consider community
participation, “community” is usually seen as a homogenous group, therefore reproducing the unequal power dynamics and
reinforcing gender inequalities [14]-[16]. The second identifiable issue is the distortion in the messages that recipients receive,
with information materials generally not addressing the stakeholders appropriately. In some cases messages target individuals
in general, disregarding the unique roles, knowledge, and experience that women and men have; and the fact that messages
can potentially increase unpaid work that both parts are already involved in. For example, it has been reported that one of the
short comes of approaches on the women, environment and development arena, including waste, has caused increase in the
unpaid housework and time burdens for women and girls, without them getting the benefits from such approaches [17]-[19].
There is also the limitation in the inclusion of gender specific designs and gender sensitive approaches on education materials
[20]. An additional point for the second issue is that, information and education materials which are rooted in gender
stereotypes, tend only to be directed at women, overlooking the importance of changing men’s behavior and attitudes towards
waste management activities [13], [19]. Connected with the previous, the third issue similarly arises when education strategies
are directed to women only. This approach can also be understood as a critique and moralization of women, and yet again, an
added burden to the unpaid reproduction work of female consumers, while exempting the other stakeholders (e.g., authorities,

icshge.org
manufacturers, distributors, and retailers) from their responsibilities. Such occurrences are acknowledged as privatization
versus socialization of waste management [19], [21].
Actualizing the inclusion of gender perspectives in waste issues encompasses the integration of women’s views and
priorities for waste; improvement of the division of responsibilities and access to waste handling resources; creation of
employment opportunities; and, the inclusive participation of women and men in decision-making processes. As such, the
inclusion of gender perspectives in waste management and education represents a twofold strategy. It addresses the untapped
potential of women’s contribution to solving waste systems’ operational problems, as well as the specific issues of gender
inequality related to the system [5], [8], [22]-[23].
There are several relevant gender research and practice work in the natural resources use and management [8], [24]-[26].
Nonetheless, fewer initiatives focus on the waste management field, and among the existing ones, the availability of
information is still limited. Although there are projects addressing the link between gender and waste, established, resourceful
and ready-available databases do not exist; and, policies and programs, including educational initiatives have yet to articulate
the basic questions in relation to gender. For instance, in a systematic review analysis of journal articles addressing waste
education and the inclusion of the gender perspectives, researchers found that within 2007 and 2017, gender was superficially
addressed, mostly limited to the presentation of sex-disaggregated data to describe the studied groups [27]. Given that, it is
timely to have studies, new theories and reflections on the several aspects pertaining to waste and gender, as well as, gender
mainstreaming in national and local planning [8], [12]-[13], [22].
This paper presents the conceptualization of a systematic framework based on a participatory approach, to mainstream
gender into waste education, particularly in urban programs for solid waste management. Gender mainstreaming is coined as
accounting for the different needs and conditions of women and men, ensuring their rightful participation, and assessing the
implications of the planned (waste) policies, strategies, and management interventions, to achieve gender equality [2], [28]-
[30]. Moreover, participatory approaches allow for interactions, co-learning, and fair representation of stakeholders such as
researchers, program managers, target groups, and policymakers, leading to continuous improvement and adaptation of plans
and actions for the particular program [3], [14], [31].
The framework is aimed at before and after (ex-ante and ex-post) assessments of all stages of waste education programs,
including the needs assessment, planning, implementation and monitoring, and evaluation. The ex-ante assessments target the
identification of unwanted effects of the program in the conceptualization and planning stages of the program. Whereas, ex-
post assessments are used for monitoring and evaluation of the implemented programs, and to adapt the approaches for future
initiatives [29], [31].HIS document is a template for Word (doc) versions. If you are reading a paper version of this document,
so you can use it to prepare your manuscript.
II. ON WASTE EDUCATION

Within the sustainable development agenda, waste management is one of the topics of Sustainable Consumption and
Production (SCP), and in turn, waste education is a theme within Education for Sustainable Consumption (ESC) [32]-[33].
ESC has its focus on raising awareness and influencing consumer behavior by providing knowledge, values, and skills to
individuals and social groups, with the goals to safeguard the quality of life, enable environmental protection, and provide for
the efficient use of resources [32], [34]. Education and awareness raising on waste are essential requirements to realize
sustainable and effective waste management systems. Given this, public information initiatives and education programs are
recognized activities of comprehensive management systems [35]-[36].
TABLE 1
SELECTED WASTE EDUCATION AND INFORMATION STRATEGIES FOR DIFFERENT STAKEHOLDER GROUPS
Stakeholder group Education and information objectives Types of initiatives
Address cultural practices and beliefs

Information campaigns; Green shopping
Emphasize health benefits
General public guidance; Introduction of the waste topic into
Use simple messages and multiple media types
the school curriculum
Build on existing community networks
Emphasize the economic and health benefits of proper solid waste
management Institutional training and capacity building to:
Frame waste management activities as a topic of great interest for Improve health and safety work conditions of
electorates formal waste workers; and, assess the
Amplify the visibility and credibility of waste management activities contribution of informal waste workers to
Government authorities
(e.g., by issuing uniforms to workers) incorporate them into the waste collection
Emphasize the national policy impacts on local activities process.
Identify instances where city activities support national goals Education and support for green procurement
Communicate about the national benefits of proper local waste programs
management (e.g., to attract investments)
Information to waste treatment facilities;
Highlight the economic benefits to private sector
Private sector Eco-labels; Marking of products and
Target groups with wide-ranging influence (e.g., tourism boards)
components
Adapted from: [12], [32], [35], [38], [41]
Delivering information on waste has an instructive and a motivating objective, which can be achieved using formal, non-
formal, or informal avenues. The instructive objective aims at informing the stakeholders what to do, which is executed through
national campaigns and local information by adopting conventional (e.g., posters, media campaigns), as well as innovative and
artistic forms (e.g., street theater, use of social media). On the other hand, the motivating objective has the function to call for

icshge.org
stakeholder’s attention to the problematic of waste and elucidate their role as part of the solution [37], [38]. Therefore,
practitioners in the field of waste management should work alongside with education professionals to define and design form
and methods for proper waste management and education strategies [39].
Moreover, the participation of stakeholders such as the government, private sector, civil society, academia, and the public
in the development processes for waste education is required. This ensures political and financial support, facilitates
involvement, promotes transparency and accountability, and fosters trust and cooperation from the public [37], [40]. Also
relevant is the design of specific and customized messages and information, to ensure that all stakeholders are aware of the
waste issue and its implications [12], [35]. Examples of comprehensive information and education strategies for waste
management, considering primary stakeholder groups, are presented in Table 1.
III. ON WASTE AND GENDER

Gender represents a social construction of the differences between women and men, as opposed to the consideration of
biological characteristics. Gender determines the attribution of roles and functions, activities, social relations, behaviors, and
norms for women and men in society, both in public and private life. There are a set of dynamic cultural determinations and
characteristics that create the specific content of being women and men in each historical period, society, and culture [2], [18],
[28]. Although both women and men contribute to social production and consumption activities, women often have multiple
roles, which translate into inequality issues, particularly in the case of poor women. These roles mainly include providing basic
needs and wellbeing at the household level through cleaning, cooking, educating children, handling livestock, and farming
[8], [13]. According to scholars and practitioners working in both the waste and gender fields, four main thematic areas are
related to “Waste and Gender”: the gendered definition of waste; the gendered division of responsibilities for waste;
community-based initiatives; and policy and practice [8], [22], [42].
A. The gendered definition of waste
Women’s and men’s individual decisions are shaped by a combination of societal roles and expectations; hence, “waste”
is not a (gender) neutral concept. Waste is defined as “something that has no more value” [42]. Nevertheless, what might be
useless to an individual, can be considered a resource for enterprise or livelihood to others. For instance, in the household
sphere something that might look like dirt to men can be used as compost or fertilizer by women; and what looks like junk to
women, can be used as motor parts to men. Moreover, knowledge on waste issues is different across gender and age. Reference
[22] states, “women, men, and children are almost certain to have different (and not always overlapping) knowledge of waste
disposal places in their neighborhoods.” Thus, in discussions and decisions on waste management, it is essential to clarify the
different understandings and nuances of what waste and resources are for the target community [8], [22].
B. The gendered division of responsibilities for waste
The division of responsibilities in regards to waste management roles is also influenced by gender. In several spheres,
women are required to be involved in clean up and waste handling activities in the household and at times in the community,
without pay. For those who can afford it, they transfer these responsibilities to helpers. In contrast, men are more likely to only
deal with waste when is directly connected to their daily activities, or when it is a remunerated effort [8], [13], [18], [22], [23].
At the household level, women are usually in charge of waste placement for collection and disposal, almost to the exclusion
of men’s participation due to the understanding that handling waste (especially without pay), will affect their status [12]-[13].
One of the outcomes of this is that women and children are the most exposed to the health hazards of handling waste. Despite
the fact that women manage waste at home, there are underlying issues of power dynamics within all households. These issues
can limit women’s control and access to waste and create conflicts of interest, particularly when waste becomes a source of
income [13], [23], [42].
Another important aspect is the change of the responsibility and ownership that occurs, when the waste goes from being
a household property to entering the existing waste management system, by being placed in the outside boundaries, termed
‘point of set-out.’ This change of boundary can also have implications for the women’s autonomy and control of waste
materials, and the transition from perceiving waste as a social responsibility to a technical one. Waste management guidelines
and infrastructures are usually set up under the male gaze, which tends not to understand the needs and concerns of women
regarding waste collection services. Instances where the outcomes of this structure can be observed is in the rise of issues
related to the poor selection of location, time, and storage type for waste set-out points [13], [22].
Lastly, women and children make a significant part of a large number of informal workers in developing countries dealing
with the waste collection, sorting, recycling, and selling valuable materials. As such, for women who are informal waste
workers, the reproduction of hierarchical gender relations at home, in the workplace, and in their respective communities; add
to the commonly precarious conditions related to their work activities [43].
C. Community-based initiatives
Waste management at the community level is primarily related to the disposal activities at informal (illegal) dump sites
and waste collection points, as well as public or communal space cleaning. Small-scale private and community-based
enterprises, linked to formal enterprises and local authorities, are commonly in charge of these activities. Women’s presence
is prevalent by their responsibility to place the waste at the collection and dump sites, and the expectation for them to voluntary
keep the community clean and maintain social harmony. In cases where women move towards institutionalizing and
monetizing their otherwise volunteer actions, a shift is usually seen, with men taking over and women being relegated to do
stereotypical office work [12], [22]. For example, in the e-mail discussion-conference on gender and waste organized by
WASTE, Advisers on Urban Environment and Development, a participant noted that “in many Southeast Asian countries the

icshge.org
women traditionally are responsible for the household waste and sweeping the streets and compound and take pride in keeping
the environment clean and tidy. But as soon as any of these tasks become paying jobs, men are either targeted for the jobs for
various reasons or end up dominating the structures and decision-making systems” [42]. It is also observed that women that
participate in waste activities as paid workers are underpaid, work in dangerous social and human conditions, and at times
have to take their children to work alongside with them. Linked with that is a reinforced cycle that they might face; on one
hand, the work being assigned has low social status, resulting in low pay; on the other hand, being paid less, thus, being
considered low-class citizens [13], [18], [22], [44].
Furthermore, women’s transition from informal waste picking to micro-enterprising is often faced with limited access to
financial resources and family support, and singular association with specific materials such as plastic and textiles, as opposed
to other types of materials, of which management is resource-intensive and physically demanding, such as metals and
construction debris. Another current issue of social-economic nature is that the participants in women’s community initiatives
are usually part of the middle and upper classes. These women usually also have connections to the local NGOs and power
structures, which can relegate the needs and contribution of women from lower classes [6], [8], [22]. An example in India
regarding affirmative action in for leadership positions in local decision-making instituions, indicated that “the women
belonging to the elite class are more likely to enter local politics, and that they do not necessarily represent poor women’s
interests” [14].
D. Policy and practice
Due to women’s often restricted access to public positions and political participation, their views and needs are often not
taken into account [30]. Notwithstanding women’s relatively high involvement in waste management activities at the local
level, integration in the decision-making processes is often (intentionally and unintentionally) neglected. Conversely, men are
more likely to have access to decision-making institutions and therefore have their say on policy design, municipal
infrastructure and technology planning, selection of service levels, and payment plans [13], [23], [44]. Also, project funders
and managers seem to lack awareness about the relevance of including gender analysis in the conception, implementation, and
assessment of waste programs [22].
The underlying power and societal structures, as well as a lack of political will, are then reflected in the lack of
consideration for the practical gendered needs and the strategic gender needs of women in waste management policy,
information and education practice [14], [19]. These two concepts of gender needs (or interest) were first introduced by Maxine
Molyneux in 1985, with some arguing that those often overlap. Practical gender needs refer to responding to an immediate
perceived necessity in a specific context, without changing the existing gender division of labor or challenging women's
subordinate position in society despite these being the causes of women's practical gender needs. General actions to address
these needs are related to the improvement of living and working conditions, including water, healthcare, essential housing
services, and employment provision, as well as the distribution of food. Whereas strategic gender needs are those that if met,
would transform the unequal power imbalance between women and men. Strategic gender needs vary according to
circumstances and relate to gender divisions of labor, power, and control. Some of the general issues it addresses include legal
rights, domestic violence, equal pay, and women's control over their bodies [14]-[15], [45]. For instance, in regards to the
practical needs of women working in the waste sector, these include the need to improve: work conditions, access to credit,
legitimacy status of entrepreneurial initiatives, protection against harassment and, negotiation conditions with authorities and
other stakeholders. On the other hand, strategic gender needs relate to addressing the social and cultural barriers to conduct
business outside of the household sphere and shift the power relationships with the male-controlled waste management
structures [22], [43], [45].
IV. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR GENDER MAINSTREAMING IN WASTE EDUCATION PROGRAMS

Following, we describe the conceptual framework designed as a gender mainstreaming tool for waste education programs,
based on the literature on waste education and on gender and waste. The realization of education programs, similarly to other
types of programs and projects, is a systematic, iterative process, comprised of situational analysis and needs assessment,
definition and planning, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation. These stages overlap and interrelate, and the results
of the previous stage become the inputs for the next stage [46]. In the proposed conceptual framework, adding to the four
mentioned stages, an institutional component is included to assess the gender stances and the possible work structures of the
program’s promoting entity. Moreover, the framework presented in Figure 1, focuses on the three critical issues of waste
education and gender:
- Full participation of women and men in all stages of the program
- Design and delivery of gender-aware messages; and,
- Assignment of responsibility among stakeholders
“Gender awareness is the ability to view society from the perspective of gender roles and understand how this has affected
women’s needs in comparison to the needs of men” [47].
Next, the main the components of the framework are discussed.
A. Mainstreaming gender in the promoting entity
Irrespective of the commitment to gender equality, entities are not gender-neutral. Gender-neutral refers to various aspects
such as language and concepts, not having an association with either men or women [11].
Government institutions, civil society organizations, consultants, training organizations, private enterprises, among
others, have their institutional culture, values, and experience. Therefore, their views on gender issues are based on their
identifiers, and the women and men that are part of those institutions will either support or challenge the principle of gender

icshge.org
equality [2]. In the context of gender-aware waste education programs, it is relevant that the promoting entity has policies and
strategies in place to address gender equality, and that the individuals part of it understand its importance, and are skillful of
tools for gender integration into the program. Thus, it is necessary to assess the gender equality capacity of the entity
conducting the waste education program.
Assessing gender in the promoting entity, at the institutional level, includes the evaluation of what gender policies,
strategies, and procedures are in place; at the individual level, the focus is on the knowledge, skills, and attitudes on gender
equality and the empowerment of women and the integration of these into the daily work. Also pertinent, is the appraisal of
the composition of the program personnel. The outcomes of this assessment, clarify the needs and ways forward for
institutional capacity development and training [30], [48].
B. Mainstreaming gender throughout a waste education program cycle
Within the framework, the common premise and vital requirement for all stages of the program is the inclusion of
participatory approaches with gender equality aspects. Participation with gender equality considerations aims to facilitate
recognition of local knowledge, a process that explicitly includes both men and women from different age groups, which relies
on horizontal communication for data collection [45]. Horizontal communication relates to the exchange between individuals,
free of consideration of hierarchical aspects, which is mainly characterized by being activity-related and informal [49].
Furthermore, it ensures that the target group is addressed as heterogeneous, with different and at times with conflictual
understandings and experiences on the issue, all the while empowering the least powerful groups by enabling their participation
in the program development process. Practical aspects related to participation in the view of gender perspectives include:
creating distinct opportunities and spaces to for women and men (groups according to aspects such as: age, marital status,
parentage, sexual orientation social composition, etc., when necessary), to present their views and contributions, as well as the
opportunity to collectively integrate their inputs; and, ensure enabling environments, as it relates to the availability of
participation, e.g., criteria, time, location. The process should also be as transparent as possible, to create adhesion and
ownership [2], [14], [45].
Situational analysis and needs assessment - The design of an educational initiative often derives from the agreement that
specific subjects are still misunderstood, or a particular environmental issue, such as waste, needs to be addressed [45].
Following the determination of the program rationale and background, i.e., the waste problem, target area, and population, the
initial task is to analyze how the target waste is used and valued within society at large, and its value to both women and man,
before and after the ‘point of set-out.’ These can be accomplished by conducting city-wide waste flow analysis and collecting
waste walk-through information from women and men, and by determining the roles, level of awareness in matters of waste
management, and involvement in the decision-making process [42], [50].. Moreover, it is crucial to clarify how women and
men are affected by different political, social, cultural, historical, and legal factors about the given waste problem, what their
respective needs are, and their access to use and control resources, goods, and services, related to the target waste [30]. The
fundamental goal is to identify the waste problems, and the opportunities, strengths, challenges, and possible new directions,
while deciphering the gender structures that surround these problems, thus avoiding the conception of discriminatory gender
programs.
Definition and planning - Following the needs assessment, the next stage is the definition of the primary goal and specific
objectives of the program, as well as the details on how these are going to be accomplished [46]. Here, women and men should
be called upon to reflect and discuss their priorities for change, to identify their views on how the program should be
implemented, and to share their expectations on the program outcomes. It is relevant to assess if the objectives reflect the needs
of women and men; if these address gender issues in any way; and also, if all genders will benefit from the program (in case
it is not a gender-specific program). In this stage, resource and technical needs that can facilitate application of gender
perspectives are included, such as the introduction of gendered budgeting, procurement, training, and indicators. The selection
and development of relevant gender indicators are particularly crucial because progress for each program’s objective can be
tracked, thus ensuring gender balance within the results [2]-[3], [29].
Implementation - Relates to the materialization of the program, the efficient application of resources, and ensuring full
stakeholders’ participation. Central to this stage is the evaluation of gender balance and explicit connections between gender
and waste education, and that the message is reaching all stakeholders effectively while ensuring that gender-sensitive language
is used to deliver the information. It also includes tracking the implications of the program on gender aspects, by collecting
feedback from the target group or program beneficiaries [3], [30].
Monitoring and evaluation - Comprise the systematic information gathering on the activities, characteristics, and results
of the program, in regards to gender issues [30], [46]. Monitoring and evaluation in a gender perspective is a reflection tool to
aid decision-making regarding the planned developments, inclusive of the promoting entity and the participant stakeholders
[51]. Of importance is the concurrent need to understand if the education program brought about positive effects related to the
waste issue that it was developed for, and to both women and men; and if the project had any impact on gender issues. At this
point, the indicators selected on the definition and planning stage are measured and evaluated against the program objectives,
with data collected gathered from all involved stakeholders. Moreover, monitoring and evaluation can be used as an iterative
process to improve upon education programs [2], [30], [46].
V. CONCLUSION
Integrating gender perspectives into waste management elements such as education programs, has the potential to improve
effectiveness, avoid costly mistakes, and ensure equitable access to livelihoods, resources, or benefits deriving from a project
[30]. This paper detailed a novel conceptual framework for gender mainstreaming in waste education programs, addressing
inclusive participation in decision-making processes, gender-aware content, and stakeholders’ accountability. The framework

icshge.org
aims to investigate and realize the potential twofold role gender inclusion has, on the effectiveness of waste education
programs and on ensuring gender equality through the program cycle. It fits ex-ante and ex-post participatory assessments of
the managing entity, as well as four stages of education programs – needs assessment, definition and planning, implementation,
and monitoring and evaluation.
Figure 1. Framework for mainstreaming gender in waste education programs.
The next stage of this research will entail testing the feasibility of the framework through its application in concluded,
ongoing, and intended waste education programs, focusing on urban solid waste management.
Lastly, intersectionality issues of gender and cultural, racial, class, sexuality, (dis)ability and ethnic identities are not
thoroughly explored and considered in the proposed framework. It is then critical to further understand the influence and power
dynamics about the different identity markers, between and within genders. Moreover, this study does not consider genders
other than male and female. Future research addressing these limitations is necessary.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This study was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, through its (KAKENHI), Grant Number
JP17F17779.
REFERENCES
[1] Stevens, C., 2010. Are Women the Key to Sustainable Development? Sustain. Dev. Insights.
[2] Swiss Agency for the Development and Cooperation (SDC), 2003. Gender in Practice - A toolkit for SDC and its partners. Federal Department of
Foreign Affairs (FDFA) Swiss Agency for the Development and Cooperation (SDC).
[3] Aguilar, L., 1999. A good start makes a better ending: Writing Proposals with a Gender Perspective, 1a ed. ed. San José, Costa Rica.
[4] Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2008. Gender and Sustainable Development: Maximising the Economic,
Social and Environmental Role of Women, Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development. OECD Publishing, Paris.
https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264049901-en
[5] United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), 2016. Global Gender and Environment Outlook. United Nations Environment Programme,
Nairobi, Kenya.
[6] Gough, A., 2013. Researching Differently: Generating a Gender Agenda for Research in Environmental Education, in: Robert B. Stevenson,
Brody, M., Dillon, J., Wals, A.E.J. (Eds.), International Handbook of Research on Environmental Education. Routledge, pp. 375–383.

icshge.org
[7] Saraçli, S., Yilmaz, V., Arslan, T., 2014. The Effects of Mothers’ Educational Levels on University Students’ Environmental Protection
Commitments and Environmental Behaviors. Eurasian J. Educ. Res. 55, 177–199. https://doi.org/10.14689/ejer.2014.55.11
[8] Tiwari, N., 2001. Gender Roles in Environmental Household Waste Management: A Case Study in Palmerston North, New Zealand. Master of
Philosophy.
[9] Gough, A., Russell, C., Whitehouse, H., 2017. Moving gender from margin to center in environmental education. J. Environ. Educ. 48, 5–9.
https://doi.org/10.1080/00958964.2016.1252306
[10] Piñeiro, C., Díaz, M.-J., Palavecinos, M., Alonso, L.-E., Benayas, J., 2014. Responsible consumption with a gender perspective : Consumption
discourse and practices surrounding gender equality and sustainability in Madrid / Consumo responsable con perspectiva de género . Discursos y
prácticas de consumo en torno a la equidad. Psyecology Rev. Bilingüe Psicol. Ambient. / Biling. J. Environ. Psychol. 5, 252–283.
https://doi.org/10.1080/21711976.2014.942512
[11] United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) 2015. Global Gender Statistics Programme. Available
at: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/genderstatmanual/Glossary.ashx Accessed April 13, 2018
[12] Wilson, D., Rodic, L., Modak, P., Soos, R., Rogero, A.C., Velis, C., Iyer, M., Simonett, O., 2015. Global Waste Management Outlook. United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
[13] Gender and Water Alliance (GWA), WASTE, 2010. NO CAPACITY TO WASTE. Training Module Gender and Waste.
[14] Akerkar, S., 2001. Gender and Participation.
[15] March, C., Smyth, I., Mukhopadhyay, M., 1999. A Guide to Gender- Analysis Frameworks. Oxfam 144. https://doi.org/10.3362/9780855987602
[16] Rouhani, L., 2017. Unpacking Community Participation : A Gendered Perspective. Curr. Issues Comp. Educ. 20, 31–44.
[17] Asian Development Bank, 2015. Balancing the burden? Desk review of women’s time poverty and infrastructure in Asia and the Pacific.
[18] Samson, M., 2003. Dumping on women: Gender and privatisation of waste management. Municipal Services Project (MSP) and the South African
Municipal Workers’ Union (Samwu).
[19] Schultz, I., Stieß, I., 2009. Policies to Promote Sustainable Consumption Patterns WP 1: “Gender aspects of sustainable consumption strategies and
instruments.” Frankfurt/Main.
[20] International Consortium GTZ-ERM-GKW, n.d. PUBLIC AWARENESS & COMMUNICATION MODULES AND MATERIALS. Module 3:
Gender mainstreaming in ISWM.
[21] Fredericks, R., 2008. Gender and the Politics of Trash in Dakar: Participation, Labor and the “Undisciplined” Woman. Think. Gend. Pap. UCLA
Cent. Study Women, UC Los Angeles.
[22] Muller, M.S., Scheinberg, A., 1998. Gender and Waste Electronic discussion group, 9-31 May 1998 A summary, UWEP Occasional Paper. Gouda,
The Netherlands.
[23] Woroniuk, B., Schalkwyk, J., 1998. Waste disposal & equality between women and men. Stockholm, Sweden
[24] Asian Development Bank, n.d. Checklist for water Supply and Sanitation
[25] Luna, M., Aguilar, L., Gilligan, M., Owren, C., Prebble, M., Westerman, K., 2015. Women in Environmental Decision Making: Case Studies in
Ecuador, Liberia, and the Philippines 78.
[26] United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 2004. Gender and Energy for Sustainable Development: A Toolkit and Resource Guide. United
Nations Development Programme (UNDP), New York, USA.
[27] dos Muchangos, L.S., Vaughter, P., 2018. Are gender perspectives included in waste education programs? A systematic literature review, in:
Proceedings SUM2018, Fourth Symposium on Urban Mining. CISA Publisher, Bergamo, Italy.
[28] Alfaro, M.C., 1999. Unveiling Gender: Basic conceptual elements for understanding gender, 1st ed. ed. San José, Costa Rica.
[29] European Institute for Gender Equality, 2016. Gender impact assessment: Gender Mainstreaming Toolkit. Publications Office of the European
Union, Luxembourg. https://doi.org/10.2839/172256
[30] Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), 2009. Gender and Environment. A guide to the integration of gender aspects in the
OSCE’s environmental projects.
[31] Graef, F., Hernandez, L.E.A., König, H.J., Uckert, G., Mnimbo, M.T., 2018. Systemising gender integration with rural stakeholders’ sustainability
impact assessments: A case study with three low-input upgrading strategies. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 68, 81–89.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2017.10.004
[32] Thoresen, V.W., 2010. HERE and NOW! Education for Sustainable Consumption: Recommendations and Guidelines. UNEP DTIE Sustain.
Consum. Prod. Branch 1–36. https://doi.org/DTI/1252/PA
[33] United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), 2010. ABC of SCP Clarifying Concepts on Sustainable Consumption and Production. Paris,
France.
[34] Didham, R.J., Choi, M.Y., 2010. Education for sustainable consumption: effective strategies to promote responsible consumer behaviour 1–17.
[35] Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC), 2013. Raising Awareness about Solid Waste Management.
[36] United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), 2005. Solid Waste Management. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP),
Osaka/Shiga, Japan.
[37] Associação Brasileira de Empresas de Limpeza Pública e Resíduos Especiais [ABRELPE], International Solid Waste Association [ISWA], 2013.
Solid Waste: guidelines for successful planning.
[38] Rodic, L., Wilson, D.C., 2017. Resolving governance issues to achieve priority sustainable development goals related to solid waste management
in developing countries. Sustain. 9. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9030404
[39] Polanec, B., Aberšek, B., Glodež, S., 2013. Informal Education and Awareness of the Public in the field of Waste Management. Procedia - Soc.
Behav. Sci. 83, 107–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.06.021
[40] dos Muchangos, L.S., Tokai, A., Hanashima, A., 2015. Application of the Delphi Method to the Identification of Barriers to a Waste Management
Policy in Maputo City, Mozambique. J. Sustain. Dev. 8, 146–157. https://doi.org/10.5539/jsd.v8n6p146
[41] Tojo, N., Neubauer, A., Bräuer, I. and, 2006. Waste management policies and policy instruments in Europe- An overview.
[42] Scheinberg, A., Muller, M., Tasheva, E., 1999. Gender and waste. Integrating gender into community waste management: project management
insights and tips from an e-mail conference, UWEP Working Document 12. Gouda, The Netherlands.
[43] Dias, S., Ogando, A.C., 2015. From Theory to Action: Gender and Waste Recycling: A Toolkit for Teachers, Researchers and Practitioners Book
3: Resources. Women in Informal Employment: Globalizing and Organizing (WIEGO), Belo Horizonte.
[44] International Environmental Technology Centre, n.d. Gender and Waste Management Did you know …?
[45] Aguilar, L., Briceno, G., Valenciano, I., 2000. Seek and ye shall find: Participatory Appraisal with a gender equity perspective, 1st ed. ed. San José,
Costa Rica.
[46] National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2009. Designing education projects: A comprehensive approach to needs assessment,
project planning and implementation, and evaluation 99.
[47] European Institute for Gender Equality, 2018 Gender equality glossary and thesaurus. http://eige.europa.eu/rdc/thesaurus/terms/1147 Accessed April
13, 2018
[48] Lahousen, V., Popovic, N., 2016. Gender Equality Capacity Assessment, Second edi. ed. UNWomen.
[49] Pruyn, A., Peters, O., Bartels, J., de Jong, M., van der Molen, M., 2010. Horizontal and vertical communication as determinants of professional and
organisational identification. Pers. Rev. 39, 210–226. https://doi.org/10.1108/00483481011017426
[50] Anschütz, J., IJgosse, J., Scheinberg, A., 2004. Putting Integrated Sustainable Waste Management into Practice. WASTE, Gouda, The Netherlands.
[51] Rodríguez, G., Meléndez, N., Velázquez, E., Fuentes, M.A., 2000. Taking the pulse of gender: Gender-sensitive systems for monitoring and
evaluation, 1st ed. ed. San José, Costa Rica.

icshge.org
The role of the international ecological network, Emerald, in Western

Balkans protected areas – situation, cooperation and perspectives
Požar, T.
Institute of Geography, University of Bamberg, Bamberg, Bavaria 96047, Germany
tea.pozar@uni-bamberg.de
Abstract—Ecological networks have an important role in controlling, preserving and protecting nature all around the Europe.
Since not all European countries are part of the European Union, consequently not all countries are part of Natura 2000, the
biggest European network for nature protection. All European countries, including non-EU countries, are part of one ecological
network, Emerald. Emerald is an international ecological network composed of areas of special conservation interest - ASCIs.
Protected areas in Western Europe are always better positioned by way of research or money assets, for example funds. On
the contrary this is not the case with Eastern European countries. Research is focused on Western Balkan countries and
investigation of a number of Emerald nature protected areas in border areas of these countries. Historical overview of the
political situation in this area before the Yugoslavian war will be considered and consequences of this event for nature protected
areas. Cross-border cooperation as moving power among many countries, cities and villages, or even whole regions is very
dependent on cooperation between geographical entities. By approaching Western Balkan countries to European Union it is
more than important to observe the situation inside the Emerald Network, which actually presents the base for addressing
future Natura 2000 sites on the level of the European Union.
Keywords—Emerald Network, ecological network, Western Balkan countries, cross-border cooperation
I. INTRODUCTION
T HE institutions of the European Union have defined the “Western Balkans” as the Balkan area that includes countries that
are not members of the European Union, while others refer to the geographical aspects. The region includes: Serbia,
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, FYR Macedonia and Albania. Each of these countries aims to be part of the future
enlargement into the European Union. Reflecting the past political situation these countries were part of Yugoslavia, nowadays:
Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia and Montenegro, an additional country to this list is Albania, which is an
independent country since 1912. The Western Balkan countries proclaimed their independency in the years: 1991- FYR
Macedonia, 1992-Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2006-Montenegro and 2006-Serbia.
According to Bennet and Wit (2001), out of a total of 38 different ecological networking initiatives registered in Europe,
three networks stand out:
• The Pan European Ecological Network (PEEN) under the aegis of the Council of Europe (CE) and the European
Centre of Nature Conservation (ECNC).
• The Natura 2000 network, established by the European Union Habitats Directive. Natura 2000 comprises Special
Areas of Conservation (SACs) of the Habitats Directive and Special Protection Areas (SPAs) of the European Union
Birds Directive.
• The Emerald Network, also known as Network of Areas of Special Conservation Interest (ASCIs), was launched in
1989 by the Council of Europe (CE). It aims at conserving important sites for nature conservation while encouraging
the protection or rehabilitation of ecological corridors between such sites.
For countries that are EU members, the Emerald Network is compatible with Natura 2000, while for non-EU countries
sites are classified as potential Natura 2000 sites. Adoption or application of the EU directives as the strictest standard
in the field of nature protection is one of the conditions for membership in the European Union.
In this paper the main focus will be on the Emerald Network in Western Balkan countries, actually nominated sites from 2017,
where the overview of protected areas will be given, with detailed analyses of protected areas on the borders of these countries
and reflecting the importance of transboundary cooperation between them.
II. THE EMERALD NETWORK - FOUNDATION, IDEA, MISSION, IMPLEMENTATION

The Emerald Network is an ecological network set up by the Council of Europe as part of its work in the framework of
the Bern Convention (Council of Europe 2009). The Bern Convention (Emerald Network), aiming to ensure the conservation
of wild plants and animals and their habitats, is an initiative of the Council of Europe. It is based on Recommendations made
in 1973 by the Consultative Assembly of the Council, asking for “a coherent policy for the protection of wildlife, with a view
to establishing European regulations - if possible by means of a convention - and involving severe restrictions on hunting,
shooting, capture of animals needing protection, fishing and egg-collecting, and the prohibition of bird netting”. The final
Convention not only comprises fauna, but also flora, and came into force in 1982. The Convention falls into four parts,
including a set of appendices. Appendix I comprises a list of strictly protected flora species, Appendix II a list of strictly
protected fauna species, and Appendix III a list of protected fauna species for which a certain exploitation is possible if the
population level permits. All species of birds (with the exception of eleven species), amphibians and reptiles occurring on the
territories of the states that had elaborated the Convention and not covered by Appendix II have been included in Appendix
III. The selection of species for Appendix I and II of the Bern Convention is mainly based on threat and endemism, whereas

icshge.org
rareness is not included as a criterion (Ozinga & Schaminée 2005).

Article 4 of the Bern Convention is the most relevant article, as it states that Contracting Parties “shall take appropriate
and necessary legislative and administrative measures to ensure the conservation of the habitats of the wild flora and fauna
species, especially those specified in Appendices I and II, and the conservation of endangered natural habitats” (Council of
Europe 2010a).
The creation of the Emerald Network of areas of special conservation interest was agreed in 1989 by the Standing
Committee of the Bern Convention, through the adoption of Recommendation No. 16 (1989) on the Areas of Special
Conservation Interest (ASCIs). The Recommendation advocates Contracting Parties to take, either by legislation or otherwise,
steps to designate areas of special conservation interest to ensure that necessary and appropriate conservation measures are
taken for each area situated within their territory or under their responsibility (Council of Europe 2010b). All European Union
nature conservation legislation therefore results from the obligations of the European Union as contracting party to the Bern
Convention and the consequent implementation of the 1979 European Commission Birds Directive and the 1992 European
Commission Habitats Directive provided for the establishment of a representative system of legally protected areas throughout
the European Union, known as Natura 2000. These directives further strengthened existing protected site series at national
level, or stimulated countries to define lists of protected sites.
The Standing Committee, realising this wish and noting that the Habitats Directive was already sufficiently advanced in
its work to build Natura 2000, decided to adopt its Resolution No. 3 (1996), in which it resolved to “set up a network (Emerald
Network) which would include the Areas of Special Conservation Interest designated following its Recommendation No. 16”;
it furthermore “encouraged Contracting Parties and observer states to designate Areas of Special Conservation Interest and to
notify them to the Secretariat” (Council of Europe 2009).
Resolution No. 3 (1996) encourages “Contracting Parties and observer states to designate ASCIs” and to notify them to
the Secretariat. The following forty-three European states are Contracting Parties to the Convention: Albania, Andorra,
Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark,
Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania,
Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia,
Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, FYR Macedonia, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom. The following four European
states have the status of observer at the meetings of the Standing Committee: Belarus, Holy See, the Russian Federation and
San Marino. The participation of non-European Parties in the Emerald Network was decided by the Standing Committee in
1998. Four African states are Contracting Parties to the Convention: Burkina Faso, Morocco, Tunisia and Senegal. This raises
to fifty-three states, which may participate in the Emerald Network (Council of Europe 2009).
The participation of states, which are not yet Contracting Parties, is not only possible, but highly desirable. Resolution
No. 3 (1996) invites “European states, which are observer states in the Standing Committee of the Bern Convention, to
participate in the network and designate ASCIs”. Resolution No. 5 (1998) establishes that for Contracting Parties that are
member states of the European Union, Emerald Network sites are those of the Natura 2000. Indeed, no further action would
be expected from them, the Natura 2000 network having identical objectives (and a more solid legal basis) to those of the
Emerald Network. In this respect, the full and thorough implementation of the Habitats Directive is contemplated as a necessary
and fundamental step into the achievement of the common goals it shares with the Bern Convention, both concerning the
protection of natural habitats and the conservation of wild flora and fauna (Council of Europe 2009).
With the adoption in December 1998 of Resolution No. 5 (1998) “Rules for the Emerald network”, Resolution No. 6
(1998) listing the species requiring specific habitat conservation measures and the development of the bilingual version of the
Emerald software, preparatory work for the launching of the Emerald network was successfully concluded (Council of Europe
2009). In the beginning of 1999, in order to assist the initial implementation phase of the Emerald Network, the Council of
Europe proposed to a number of countries of Central and Eastern Europe to start the pilot projects in their respective countries.
The overall objective of the Emerald network pilot project is to develop a pilot database, containing a fair proportion of the
Areas of Special Conservation Interest and submit a proposal for the sites designation to the Standing Committee of the Bern
Convention. In order to achieve this objective, the countries have to form project teams, carry out the training of the teams
(organise the workshop) and proceed with the scientific work (data collection on species and habitats concerned; field survey
for a selected pilot area; mapping of distribution data on species and habitats) and technical tasks of installing the software,
introduction of data on the sites into the database; preparing Standard Data sheets on the designated sites and transmitting this
information in the electronic form to the Secretariat with the project report. The tasks, which are to be carried out in the
framework of the Emerald network pilot project, are described in detail in the document T-PVS/Emerald (2002) 16 “Building
up the Emerald Network: a guide for Emerald Network country team leaders”, which is intended as a user-friendly guide for
the countries, that are implementing Emerald pilot projects.
An Emerald Network development programme was implemented in 2005/2008, in South-Eastern Europe, as a
continuation of the initial pilot projects launched by the Council of Europe. This programme, funded through CARDS grants
and thus called “the CARDS/Emerald programme” targeted the following countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Croatia, Montenegro, FYR Macedonia and Serbia. Its overall objective was to identify 100% of the potential Emerald sites in
these countries. The programme benefitted from a financial contribution of the European Environmental Agency and
represented an important tool contributing to preparing the countries concerned for the future work on Natura 2000 and for
advance compliance with the Habitats and Birds Directives (Council of Europe 2009). A Joint Programme with the European
Union has been launched in 2009, for a period of three years, in order to substantially develop the Emerald Network in the

icshge.org
seven following countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine and the European part of the Russian
Federation. The objective of this Joint Programme is to identify at the end of 2011 all the potential Emerald sites in the three
countries of South-Caucasus and in Moldova; the objective set for Belarus and the Russian Federation amounts to 50% of the
potential Emerald sites while in Ukraine, 80% of the potential Emerald sites are expected to be identified (Council of Europe
2009).
Since 8 December 2017, five countries: Belarus, Georgia, Norway, Switzerland and Ukraine, have officially adopted
Emerald sites on their territories. These sites have successfully passed the biogeographical assessment for their sufficiency, as
foreseen in Phase II of the Network constitution process 1.
III. WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES, NATURE PROTECTION BY IUCN AND BY NATIONAL LEGISLATIONS OF THE COUNTRIES
In the following chapter, categorization of the protected areas in countries of Western Balkan will be analysed from the
scope of international IUCN management of protected areas as well through the scope of each Nature Protection Law of
Western Balkan countries. According to the IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature, the main information
about nature protection in Western European countries can be observed from Table 1, where information is given about
terrestrial area of protected areas in observed countries. Based on this information, it can be seen that the country with highest
percentage of terrestrial protected area coverage is Albania 17.74%, while the lowest can be seen in case of Bosnia and
Herzegovina, only 1.4% of coverage. All countries included in this paper, have the same idea of expanding their protected
areas and proclaiming more nature protected areas in the future.
TABLE I
PROTECTED AREAS COVERAGE – AREA TERRESTRIAL (SOURCE: WWW.PROTECTEDPLANET.NET)
Country Coverage (%) Land Area Protected (km2) Total Land Area (km2)
Serbia 6.61 5,853 88,509

Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.4 715 51,225
Montenegro 6.4 886 13,848
FYR Macedonia 9.65 2,456 25,443
Albania 17.74 5,099 28,747
When considering the IUCN as the International Union in the domain of Nature conservation, important aspects of
protection are always emphasized by IUCN categorization of protected areas, where according to IUCN categorization, there
are VI classes of protected areas. IUCN protected area management categories classify protected areas according to their
management objectives. The categories are recognised by international bodies such as the United Nations and by many national
governments as the global standard for defining and recording protected areas. Listed from I till VI, IUCN categorization of
protected areas include:
• Ia Strict Nature Reserve
• Ib Wilderness Area
• II National Park
• III Natural Monument or Feature
• IV Habitat/Species Management Area
• V Protected Landscape/Seascape
• VI Protected area with sustainable use of natural resources
IUCN works to establish best practices and standards that maximise the effectiveness of protected and conserved areas and
advance justice and equity in conservation, including the rights of indigenous peoples and local communities.
TABLE II
PROTECTED AREAS IN WESTERN BALKANS BY WORLD CONSERVATION UNION (IUCN) CATEGORY (SOURCE: WWW.PROTECTEDPLANET.NET)
Bosnia and
IUCN Management Categories Serbia Montenegro FYR Macedonia Albania
Herzegovina
Ia - Strict Nature Reserve 7 2 / 2 2
Ib - Wilderness Area 1 2 / / /
II - National Park 3 2 3 3 15
III - Natural Monument or Feature 166 11 / 57 8
IV - Habitat/Species Management 22
34 1 / 12
Area
V- Protected Landscape/Seascape 21 / 2 1 4
VI - Protected area with 4
sustainable use of natural 2 / / /
resources
Not reported 10 2 2 2 4
Not applicable 1 / 2 1 1
Not assigned 87 / / / 1
Number of protected areas 332 20 9 78 61
1
Source: https://www.coe.int/en/web/bern-convention/emerald-network

icshge.org
As observed from Table 2, the number of protected areas is highest in Serbia (332), followed by FYR Macedonia (78);
Montenegro is in last position with only 9 protected areas in total. From Table 1, which represents percentage of terrestrial
protected areas coverage, it can be concluded that, in first position is Albania with only 61 areas listed as protected, but 17.74%
of overall territory is protected. The lowest percentage of terrestrial coverage compared to land coverage of the country is in
Bosnia and Herzegovina just 1.4%, but it includes 20 nature protected areas.
On the other hand, each Western Balkan country has its own legislative framework for nature protection designation,
proclaimed from the National Law of each country. According to the Laws of all five Western Balkan countries it can be found
that all have a clear definition of terms: protected area, ecological network and cross-border connections of protected areas.
Categorizations of protected areas defer from country to country, and similarities and differences will be discussed. Nature
protection Laws of Western Balkan countries, which were analysed include:
• Serbia - Law on nature protection (“Official Gazette of the Republic of Serbia”, No. 36/2009, 88/2010, 91/2010 -
correction 14/2016);
• Bosnia and Herzegovina - Official Gazette of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina No. 66/13 /28.8.2013/
Law on nature protection;
• Montenegro - Law on nature “Official Gazette of the Republic of Montenegro”, No. 054/16 from 15.08.2016;
• FYR Macedonia - Official Gazette of the Republic of Macedonia No. 67/2004 Law on nature protection;
• Albania - Law No. 81/2017 for protected areas, Republic of Albania assembly.
Defined protected area in the Laws of Western Balkan countries include in all cases defined area/space with noticeable
geological, biological, ecosystem and/or landscape diversity on the territory of the defined country. All cases reflect
international regulations, with the purpose of long lasting conservation. By defining Ecological network in all Laws, this
definition refers to internationally connected or spatially close ecologically important areas, which are maintained or restored
to a favourable conservation status. According to all five Environmental and Natural Laws, cross-border connection of
protected areas are defined, meaning that all protected areas can connect with neighbouring countries under international
agreements.
TABLE III
CATEGORIES OF PROTECTED AREAS IN WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES ACCORDING TO NATURE PROTECTION LAWS OF WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES
(NATURE PROTECTION LAWS OF WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES)
Bosnia and Herzegovina Montenegro FYR Macedonia Serbia Albania
Category Ia: Strict Nature reserve Strict Natural Reserve Strict Nature reserve Strict natural reserve
Strict Nature reserve /scientific reserve
Category Ib:
Wildness area
Category II: National park National Park Special Nature reserve National Park
National park
Category III: Special Nature reserve Natural Monument National park Natural monument
Natural monument and
natural features
Category IV: Nature park Nature Park Natural monument Managed Natural reserve
Area of management of /Natural park
habitats/species
Category V: Natural monument Protected Landscape Protected habitat Protected Landscape
Protected landscapes:
- Landmass landscape
- Sea landscape
- Nature park
Category VI: Landscape of exceptional Multipurpose Area Landscape of exceptional Protected area of managed
Protected areas with features features resources
sustainable use of natural
resources
Nature park Municipal Natural Park
Green crown
From Table 3, obvious similarities can be detected in Western Balkan countries. Categories of; Strict Nature reserve,
National park, Natural monument, protected landscape/areas/habitats are included in all five Laws of Nature protection. The
most similar Laws are Serbian and Montenegrin, which can be explained by the fact that the two countries stayed together for
the longest period of time after the breakup of Yugoslavia, until 2006. Similar background notices can be explained through
complicated division of protected areas in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where it has to be mentioned that the country is largely
decentralized and comprises two autonomous entities: The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska, with
a third region, the Brčko District, governed under local government. In case of Albania, which was independent from the other
four countries, the existence of additional categories, not mentioned in other Laws of Nature protection, can be reflected, for
example Municipal Natural Park and Green crown.

icshge.org
IV. RESULTS
System of transboundary protected areas on borders in Western Balkan countries will be provided from Updated list of
officially nominated candidate Emerald sites, from December 2017, where protected areas in following countries are proposed:
Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Republic of Moldova, Montenegro, Norway, Russian
Federation, Serbia and “The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia”.
The list of Emerald Network candidate sites is based on most recent data delivered on the Central Data Repository (CDR)
managed by European Environmental Agency. It contains newly nominated sites and also previously nominated candidate
sites (except those which are listed on the list of Emerald Network adopted sites). Candidate sites are defined by their code,
their name and their area. The list of officially nominated candidate Emerald sites is updated by the Standing Committee to
the Bern Convention each year, as its annual meeting. Countries are presented in alphabetical order and their lists are prepared
and sorted according to the site code in alfa-numerical order (T-PVS/PA (2017) 15).
TABLE IV
NOMINATED CANDIDATE EMERALD SITES IN WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES (SOURCE: T-PVS/PA (2017) 15)
Country Number of protected Coverage (%) Land Area Protected (km2) Total Land Area (km2)
areas
Serbia 61 11.54 10,210.78 88,509
Bosnia and 29 4.74 2,427.32 51,225

Herzegovina
Montenegro 32 17.34 2,400.77 13,848
FYR Macedonia 35 29.65 7,543.83 25,443
Albania 25 18.17 5,224.29 28,747
Based on information from Table 4, differences between coverage of protected areas in percentage, according to
nominated candidate Emerald sites and IUCN can be distinguished. In cases of all Western Balkan countries proposed
protection in percentage is higher according to Emerald list, in some cases difference is negligible, but extreme example can
be observed in case of FYR Macedonia, where according to IUCN list percentage of protected area coverage is 9.65 (Table 1),
and according to Emerald nominated candidate list percentage of protected area coverage is 29.65 (Table 4). Other extreme
example is Montenegro, where percentage is more than double higher; from 6.4 in IUCN list (Table 1) to 17.34 in nominated
candidate Emerald list (Table 4).
The following figures represent nominated candidate Emerald sites for each country of Western Balkan individually,
where all figures are done using same criteria of buffer zones; 20 km from international border line was used as a universal
criterion. In cases of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Albania, Emerald sites which are positioned in coastal buffer
zones are also included as a border protected areas.
Figure 1. Nominated candidate Emerald sites in border areas of Serbia. Source: Authors own elaboration 2018
Listed nominated candidate Emerald sites in border area of Serbia: Gornje Podunavlje; Prokletije; Vlasina; Sar Planina;
Tara; Stara planina; Djerdap; Ludasko jezero; Zasavica; Dolina Pcinje; Suboticka pescara; Vrsacke planine; Sargan - Mokra
Gora; Pasnjaci velike droplje; Selevenjske pustare; Klisura reke Milesevke; Palic; Zlatibor; Jerma; Pester; Karadjordjevo;

icshge.org
Klisura reke Tresnjice; Venerina padina; Tesne jaruge; Zelenicje; Zelenika; Tikvara; Zaovine.
Figure 2. Nominated candidate Emerald sites in border areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Source: Authors own elaboration 2018
Listed nominated candidate Emerald sites in border area of Bosnia and Herzegovina: Kompleks Maglic - Volujak -
Zelengora; Popovo polje/Vjetrenica; Pecine kod Brckog; Raca - Bijeljina; Bardaca-Lijevce polje; Fatnicko polje; Gatacko
Veliko polje; Veliki Stolac; Kanjon Drine; Livanjsko Polje.
Figure 3. Nominated candidate Emerald sites in border areas of Montenegro. Source: Authors own elaboration 2018
Listed nominated candidate Emerald sites in border area of Montenegro: Maglic, Volujak and Bioc; Canyon of Mala
Rijeka; Durmitor mountain with Tara River Canyon; Skadar Lake; Velika Plaza with Solana Ulcinj; Buljarica; Field Cemovsko
polje; Kanjon Cijevne; Lovcen; Tivatska solila; Sasko jezero, rijeka Bojana, Knete, Ada Bojana; Rumija; Cave in Djalovica
Ravine; Plavsko-Gusinjske Prokletije (+Bogicevica); Lim river; Valley of Cehotina river; Ljubisnja; Golija and Ledenice;
Ostatak kanjona Pive ispod Hidroelektrane; Visitor and Zeletin; Kotarsko risanski bay; Orjen; Pecin beach; Hajla; Spas, Budva;
Komovi; Katici, Donkova and Velja seka islands; Platamuni.
Figure 4. Nominated candidate Emerald sites in border areas of FYR Macedonia. Source: Authors own elaboration 2018

icshge.org
Listed nominated candidate Emerald sites in border area of FYR Macedonia: Galichica; Ezerani; Dojransko Ezero;
Pelister; Mavrovo; Shar Planina; Matka; Smolarski Vodopad; Monospitovsko blato; Alshar; Nidze; Kozuf; Jablanica; Belasica;
Blato Negorski banji; Ohridsko Ezero; Prespansko Ezero; Osogovski Planini; Churchulum (Bogdanci); German - Pchinja;
Klisura na Bregalnica; Mariovo; Maleshevski Planini; Gorna Pelagonija.
Figure 5. Nominated candidate Emerald sites in border areas of Albania. Source: Authors own elaboration 2018
Listed nominated candidate Emerald sites in border area of Albania: “Llogara” National Park; Divjaka National Park;
Prespa National Park; Butrinti National Park; Allamani; Protected landscape of the wetland complex Vjose - Narte; Managed
Nature Reserve (Albanian part) of Shkodra lake; Alps; Morava; Karaburun-Orikum-Dukat National Park; Karavasta National
Park; Shengjin-Ishem; Pogradec Protected Landscape; Managed Nature Reserve Germenj-Shelegure-Leskovik-Piskal;
Protected Landscape of Buna river - Velipoja; National Park Rrajce-Shebenik; Protected Landscape of Korabi; Managed
Nature Reserve Rrushkulli-Ishem; Managed Nature Reserve of Berzane.
In Table 5. nominated candidate Emerald sites on borders are analysed. Highest number of protected areas on borders can
be found in Serbia and in Montenegro, same number of sites, 28. Lowest number of border nominated candidate Emerald sites
is in Bosnia, 10. When considering percentage of coverage of nominated candidate Emerald sites the highest percentage
coverage is detected in FYR Macedonia - 22.45, and the lowest 2.67 in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
TABLE V
NOMINATED CANDIDATE EMERALD SITES IN BORDER AREAS IN WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES (SOURCE: T-PVS/PA (2017) 15)
Country Number of protected Coverage (%) Land Area Protected (km2) Total Land Area (km2)
areas
Serbia 28 6.55 5,793.83 88,509
Bosnia and 10 2.67 1,375.92 51,225

Herzegovina
Montenegro 28 16.19 2,242.59 13,848
FYR Macedonia 24 22.45 5,713.15 25,443
Albania 19 15.63 4,494.13 28,747
Based on the results from the individual figures of Western Balkan countries, one unique figure with all five Western
Balkan countries is provided (Figure 6) where significant results can be discussed.

icshge.org
Figure 6. Nominated candidate Emerald sites in border areas of Western Balkan countries with focus regions (Source: Authors own elaboration 2018)
Based on spatial distribution of nominated candidate Emerald sites in border areas of Western Balkan countries, as the
areas with highest level of density of protected sites (at least 6) four focus regions are emphasized:
• Border of Serbia with Bosnia and Herzegovina
• Tri-border area of Serbia, Montenegro and Albania
• Border of Montenegro with Albania
• Border of Albania with FYR Macedonia
In first focus region nominated candidate Emerald sites in border areas are: Tara, Sargan- Mokra Gora, Zlatibor, Klisura reke
Tresnjice, Tesne jaruge, Zelenika and Zaovine on Serbian side, and Veliki Stolac and Kanjon Drine on side of Bosnia and
Herzegovina. Second focus region includes next nominated candidate Emerald sites: Prokletije in Serbia, Alps in Albania and
Hajla, Lim river, Visitor, Zeletin and Plavsko-Gusinjske Prokletije (+Bogicevica) in Montenegro. Third focus region consist
of next protected sites: Skadar Lake, Rumija, Sasko jezero, rijeka Bojana, Knete, Ada Bojana and Velika Plaza with Solana
Ulcinj in Montenegro and Managed Nature Reserve (Albanian part) of Shkodra lake and Protected Landscape of Buna river -
Velipoja in Albania. While forth focus region includes: Galichica, Ohridsko Ezero, Prespansko Ezero and Pelister in FRY
Macedonia and Prespa National Park and Pogradec Protected Landscape in Albania.
Except of mentioned focus regions, direct cross-border protected sites can be detected: Dolina Pcinje - German - Pchinja
(Serbia - FYR Macedonia); Sar Planina - Shar Planina (Serbia - FYR Macedonia); Maglic, Volujak and Bioc, Ostatak kanjona
Pive ispod Hidroelektrane - Kompleks Maglic - Volujak - Zelengora (Montenegro - Bosnia and Herzegovina); Cave in
Djalovica Ravine - Pester (Montenegro - Serbia); Protected Landscape of Korabi - Mavrovo (Albania - FYR Macedonia);
National Park Rrajce-Shebenik - Jablanica (Albania - FYR Macedonia).
Largest nominated candidate Emerald site is Prokletije in Serbia with 1553,96 km2 of protected area, that together
with Albanian Alps and Montenegrin Plavsko-Gusinjske Prokletije (+Bogicevica) represent unique and only example of tri-
border protected area in Western Balkan with total protected area of 2,486.12 km2.
V. FINAL REMARKS
On increasing vulnerability of the living world and the constant trend of reducing the number of species, Europe responded
with a determined resolve to stop the reduction biodiversity by establishing a single legal framework establishing an ecological
network as a basis for the protection policy nature in the European Union. According to European Environmental Agency data

icshge.org
eleven biogeographical regions spread all over Europe, where four of them are on territory of Western Balkan countries:
Alpine, Continental, Mediterranean and Pannonian. 2
Situation in Western Balkan countries can be observed even from earlier periods, where it was stated that Federal Republic
of Yugoslavia with its location was centre of the most important biogerographical regions in Europe. The high level of
scientific education and university expertise has for many years been combined with well-developed awareness - and concern
- to protect the natural resource (Stevanović and Vasić 1995). This further leads to fact to Montenegro’s declaring itself the
world’s first “environmental state”, pledged to develop a harmonious relationship to nature at the 1992 Rio conference (Clarke
2002, p. 5).
When talking about situation which considers nature protection, after the breakup of Yugoslavia, first interventions could
have been observed in Serbia, where we have example of pilot project “Emerald Network in the Republic of Serbia”.
Coordinator of this pilot project was the Faculty of Biology, University of Belgrade. One of the results was the identification
of species and habitats, with the proposal to expand the list of Emerald species important for Serbia, as well as the selection
and description of potential Emerald sites in Serbia. Six areas (9.83%) of the total sixty-one proposed potential “Emerald”
areas have been dealt with in detail. These include: Gornje Podunavlje, Kopaonik, Obedska bara, Prokletije, Deliblatska
pescara and Vlasina. In the second phase of the project “Emerald Network in the Republic of Serbia”, which was implemented
in 2006, the remaining fifty-five areas (90.16%) were dealt with. The project was implemented by the Institute for Nature
Conservation of Serbia, coordinated by the ministry, at that time in charge of these issues. The second phase included the
revision of the number and the status of certain areas on the List of potential Emerald sites in Serbia, which was developed in
the pilot project in 2005. The third phase of the Project, among other things, revised the lists of priority habitats, identified
species present in Serbia, according to EU directives, and provided data on their populations at the national level. 3
According to available data in other countries of Western Balkan for example, FYR Macedonia, agreements of
cooperation in the field of environmental protection with Albania and Greece has been signed. On February 2, 2001 – World
Wetlands Day – Prime Ministers from all three countries declared “Prespa Park” a new trilateral transboundary protected area.
At this signing, they recognized that conservation of nature depends largely on respect for international legal agreements that
aim at protecting natural environments (Report - Macedonia, 2001 p. 30).
Detailed description about eventual project cannot be found for all countries of Western Balkan. In Montenegro the project
of establishing NATURA 2000 network was submitted for funding to the European Commission through the IPA 2012-2013.
Also there is on-going project “Integrated management of Skadar Lake ecosystem” Montenegro-Albania, the biggest lake on
Balkan Peninsula.
Transboundary issues are of critical importance to biodiversity conservation in many countries, means that greater
regional cooperation needs to be encouraged. About the importance of transboundary issues and its particular importance even
in 1998, Brunner wrote that: four out of Serbia’s five National parks (including the proposed Prokletije National Park which
abuts Albania) are situated on boundary areas; Kopaonik National Park is also situated partly in Kosovo. Two of Montenegro’s
four parks are also on the frontier with Albania. In some areas, most particularly those (such as Lake Skadar) which abut
Albania there is little or no cooperation with the adjoining conservation authorities. By contrast collaboration with Hungary in
respect of the Selevenj sands (which adjoins to Kiskunsag National Park) is cited as a model for transboundary collaboration
with a joint management plan and proposals to facilitate cross-border crossings. From these examples we can see that
transboundary collaboration is possible on territory of Western Balkan countries, those examples described as negative are
between countries that are core of this paper, while positive example is mentioned between Serbia and neighbouring Hungary.
European initiative and ecological network which should use as a good example of transboundary cooperation is European
Green belt initiative. This initiative serves to harmonize the system of nature protected areas in Europe, which spreads through
23 countries and connects some of the most different biodiversity systems. It is especially important since it deals with
protected areas in border regions and its aim is to emphasize cooperation it these regions.
Emerald Network is currently in its implementation phase, as one of most crucial steps it is important to indicate the
establishment of Emerald Network - General Viewer 4, which visually shows the overview of Emerald Network, both adopted
and candidate sites. When considering countries of Western Balkan, territories of Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and FYR
Macedonia are included in Viewer. Emerald Network - General Viewer is established by Council of Europe, European
Environmental Agency.
When talking about Western Balkan countries: Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, FYR Macedonia and
Albania, it is important to underline that in many cases problems in project realization are defined in strategic documents.
Absence of a national environmental strategy as one reason for the gap of clear priorities for the country’s international
environmental cooperation is a common situation. Institutional capacity of the environmental authorities is weak, with
insufficient level of project documentation. In most cases there is no adjustment in some segments of legislative with the EU
Directives, and all followed with a lack of the financial assets and lack of human resources.
2
Biogeographical regions are used to distinguish broad geographical areas that have a similar set of climatic, topographic and geological conditions. This in
turn influences the kind of animals and plants that are found there.
3
Source: http://www.zzps.rs/novo/index.php?jezik=en&strana=zastita_prirode_ekoloske_mreze_emerald

icshge.org
REFERENCES
Bennet, G. & Wit, P. (2001) The development and application of ecological networks: A review of proposals, plans and programmes. Amsterdam:
AIDEnvironment and IUCN. Available from: https://portals.iucn.org/library/sites/library/files/documents/2001-042.pdf
Brunner, R. (1998) Transborder protected area cooperation in Yugoslavia - a technical assessment. Vienna: Report on a visit to Serbia, December 1997.
From Clarke, R. (2002) Yugoslavia in Environmental Problems in East Central Europe eds. Frank W Carter and David Turnock London: Routledge.
ISBN 0-415-17403-1 pp 396-416.
Clarke, R. (2002) Yugoslavia in Environmental Problems in East Central Europe eds. Frank W Carter and David Turnock London: Routledge. ISBN 0-415-
17403-1 pp 396-416.
Council of Europe, Convention on the conservation of European wildlife and natural habitats, Standing Committee (1989) Recommendation No. 16 (1989)
of the Standing Committee on areas of special conservation interest. Appendix 5 to The Emerald Network - A network of Areas of Special
Conservation Interest for Europe - Information Document. T-PVS/PA (2009) 8rev. Available from: https://search.coe.int/bern-
convention/Pages/result_details.aspx?ObjectId=0900001680746c25
Council of Europe, Convention on the conservation of European wildlife and natural habitats, Standing Committee (2002). Building up the Emerald
Network: a guide for Emerald Network country team leaders. T-PVS/Emerald (2002) 16.
Council of Europe, Convention on the conservation of European wildlife and natural habitats, Standing Committee (2009). The Emerald Network of Areas
of Special Conservation Interest. Fact sheet 20.
Council of Europe, Convention on the conservation of European wildlife and natural habitats, Standing Committee (2010a). Criteria for assessing the
National Lists of proposed Areas of Special Conservation Interest (ASCIs) at biogeographical level and procedure for examining and approving
Emerald candidate sites. T-PVS/PA (2010) 12.
Council of Europe, Convention on the conservation of European wildlife and natural habitats, Standing Committee (2010b). Biogeographical Regions’ map.
T-PVS/PA (2010) 14. Available from: https://rm.coe.int/168074623f
Council of Europe, Convention on the conservation of European wildlife and natural habitats, Standing Committee (2017). Updated list of officially
nominated candidate Emerald sites. T-PVS/PA (2017) 15.
E&E - 117/119 Report - Macedonia I (2001) Introduction. Washington, D.C. Available from: https://rmportal.net/library/content/118_macedonia/view
Emerald Network - General Viewer: http://emerald.eea.europa.eu/ (02.10.2018).
Emerald Network in Serbia: http://www.mis.org.rs/vss/pages/sr/ekoloski-programi/natura-2000/emerald-mreza/emerald-mreza-u-srbiji.php (25.09.2018).
Emerald network of Areas of Special Conservation Interest: https://www.coe.int/en/web/bern-convention/emerald-network (27.09.2018).
Institute for nature conservation of Serbia, Emerald: http://www.zzps.rs/novo/index.php?jezik=en&strana=zastita_prirode_ekoloske_mreze_emerald (Date:
02.09.2018).
IUCN Protected Areas: https://www.iucn.org/theme/protected-areas (Date: 15.09.2018).
Law No. 81/2017 for protected areas, Republic of Albania assembly. Available from: http://extwprlegs1.fao.org/docs/pdf/alb176095.pdf
Law on nature protection (“Official Gazette of the Republic of Serbia”, No. 36/2009, 88/2010, 91/2010 - correction 14/2016). Available from:
http://www.pregovarackagrupa27.gov.rs/?wpfb_dl=107
Law on nature “Official Gazette of the Republic of Montenegro”, No. 054/16 from 15.08.2016. Available from:
http://podgorica.me/db_files/Urbanizam/Zakoni/zakon_o_zastiti_prirode.pdf
Official Gazette of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina No. 66/13 /28.8.2013/ Law on nature protection. Available from:
http://www.fbihvlada.gov.ba/bosanski/zakoni/2013/zakoni%20registar%202013.htm
Official Gazette of the Republic of Macedonia No. 67/2004 Law on nature protection. Available from: http://extwprlegs1.fao.org/docs/pdf/mac60910E.pdf
Ozinga, W.A. & Schaminée, J.H.J. (2005) Target species - Species of European concern. A database driven selection of plant and animal species for the
implementation of the Pan European Ecological Network. Alterra-report 1119. Wageningen. Available from:
http://library.wur.nl/WebQuery/wurpubs/fulltext/40618
protectedplanet.net. Protected area coverage per country/territory by UN Environment Regions: https://www.protectedplanet.net/c/unep-regions#Europe
(Date: 06.09.2018).
Stevanović, V. & Vasić, V. (1995) Biodiverzitet Jugoslavije sa Pregledom Vrsta od Međunarodnog Značaja. Ecolibri i Biološki Fakultet. Belgrade.

icshge.org
Stakeholder Collaboration on Sustainable Water Management in the

Hotel Sector: A Network Analysis of Singapore
Hu, X.,1 Lovelock, B.,1 Ying, T.,2 and Mager, S.3
1
Department of Tourism, University of Otago, Dunedin 9054, New Zealand
2
Department of Tourism and Hotel Management, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
3
Department of Geography, University of Otago, Dunedin 9016, New Zealand
Abstract—The collaboration of stakeholders has become a critical issue concerning the sustainability of tourism due to the
increasingly interdisciplinary and complex characteristics of policymaking. World Tourism Day (WTD) of 2013 has
acknowledged the significance of stakeholder collaboration for sustainable water demand management (WDM) in the tourism
and hospitality industry. Being a small coastal city-state, The Republic of Singapore is one of the world’s most water-stressed
destinations. Subsequently, there is a desire on sustainable tourism policies, including water policies, to be initiated at the
tourist destination in order to prevent overuse of this natural resource. Essentially, such policymaking should reflect the values
of sustainable tourism in a dynamic system in which policy stakeholders achieve consensus on issues concerning water use
through durable and interactive engagement. This study attempts to understand how stakeholder relationships contribute to
participatory policymaking on sustainable water management in Singapore’s hotel sector. Methodologically, this research
applies stakeholder analysis combined with network approach to the investigation of prevailing stakeholder collaboration based
on the survey results and public policy document database (2001-2015). The empirical research findings offer a valuable
overview of interconnectedness of policy actors across the sectoral boundaries. Also two government authorities are perceived
as the most salient policy stakeholders that hold greatest legitimacy, power, urgency over others in the policy domain. Results
of this study could shed some insight on policymaking in a sustainable tourism system.
Keywords—network analysis, stakeholder collaboration, sustainable tourism and hospitality, sustainable water management
I. INTRODUCTION
A wide variety of tourist activities rely on the input of natural resources (Day and Chin, 2018). One such prominent input is
water, which is not only fundamental for scenic beauty of a landscape, but is also required for promoting accommodation
environments (Gössling et al., 2015). It has been recognised that water is fast-becoming a scarce natural resource. For instance,
only less than 1% of the global freshwater held in rivers, lakes, underground aquifers, atmosphere and biomass is easily
accessible for daily use (Black, 2016).
Tourism, as a single industry, has been growing rapidly worldwide since the second half of the 20th Century (Gössling et
al., 2015). International arrivals reached one billion for the very first time in history in 2012 (Hall and Page, 2014). According
to the World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) (2018), the rising number of international tourists is expected to continue.
Consequently, in the foreseeable future, more tourism supporting systems (such as hotels, restaurants, golf course, spas and
other consumptive water-related recreation activities) will inevitably exert pressure on water availability (Hawkins and
Bohdanowicz, 2012). This kind of water demand from tourism can exacerbate current water shortage problems and result in
conflict over existing water resources. Thus, water availability and conservation, wastewater management and drinking water
quality are shown as the top three UNWTO’s baseline criteria for sustainability (UNWTO, 2004). However, researchers have
given little attention to water management in the tourism industry, especially at water constrained destinations (Deyà Tortella
and Tirado, 2011).
The hotel sector, particularly, deserves a systematic and detailed investigation because hotels are “one of the tourism
industry’s largest drivers of employment and economic revenue” (Hotel Energy Solutions, 2018) and a critical water consumer
in tourism at many destinations (Hadjikakou et al., 2013). As a key component of the tourism industry, the hotel sector is often
identified as having the potential to make optimal use of water and other natural resources in the quest for more sustainable
forms of development (Becken and Dolnicar, 2016). The confluence of a growing hotel sector concomitant with water shortage
could lead to a critical situation without comprehensive water management strategies (Crase and O'Keefe, 2011).
Using a case study approach, this study is aimed at understanding how sustainable tourism policymaking has been
conducted at a tourist destination. Particular attention is paid to a specific policy arena, water demand management (WDM) in
Singapore’s hotel sector, as this is seen as an exemplar domain for the development of sustainable tourism. This study explores,
using a network approach of stakeholder analysis, how the structure of relations among critical multi-sector organisational
stakeholders 1 can influence water policymaking in the hotel sector.

A. Sustainable Tourism Policymaking
Tourism is widely regarded as one of the most essential forms of social acivity in terms of the economic, social and
environmental significance (Edgell and Swanson, 2019). Although tourism development is one of the crucial components of
1
In this study, the policy stakeholders are located in the public, private and third sectors. The public sector refers to government authorities,
the private sector comprises private businesses and the third sector (or the host community) includes the non-governmental institutions,
educational establishments and other citizen groups.

icshge.org
a destination, over-exploitation of resources for tourism development can lead to breakdown or collapse of the resource base
and harm to ecosystems (Mason, 2016). The reality is often frustrating as “despite the plethora of discussions about
sustainability in tourism we often seem no closer to finding solutions to the problems of tourism development” (Hall, 2008).
In order to address this shortcoming, some commentators point towards the need for appropriate policies: “the development of
tourism must be sustained by the choice of adequate policy instruments” (Briassoulis and Straaten, 2000). Further, all the
stakeholders involved in tourism, from development to operations, are expected to equally assume responsibility for
policymaking that has sustainable tourism development goals in mind (Simons-Kaufman et al., 2012). The challenge facing
stakeholders, however, is how the complex and dynamic principles of sustainable tourism development are translated into the
tourism policy framework at a destination (Rezaee and Choi, 2016).
B. Policies for WDM in the Tourism and Hospitality Industry
Demand-side water policies manage “consumptive demand itself to postpone or avoid the need to develop new [potable
water] resources” (Butler and Memon, 2005). WDM policies in this study comprise a wide variety of approaches, including
water pricing, management and regulatory solutions, engineering and technical solutions, education & involvement and
alternate sources of water for non-potable purpose (Araral and Wang, 2013). Yet, research priority on sustainable (demand)
management of water within a tourism context is still relatively low compared to residential, industrial and agricultural water
uses (Gössling et al., 2012).
It has been argued that design and implementation of the specific WDM measures involve multiple stakeholders, such as
water authorities, other government agencies, water consumers, educational establishments, professional associations and non-
profit NGOs (Afonso and Rodrigues, 2014). Without stakeholder involvement, sustainability would “just be a marketing slogan
or, at best a topic for theoretical debate” (Byrd, 2007).
C. Combining Stakeholders with Network Analysis
One of the earliest approaches to examining tourism stakeholders was introduced to tourism research by Haywood (1988).
The author suggests a one-way relatively independent economic (or particularly consumptive) relationship between various
tourism stakeholders and the business sector. Following this, Jamal and Getz (1995) have illustrated the application of
stakeholder constructs in tourist destination planning. The authors have acknowledged the complexity of stakeholder
relationships at a tourist destination, noting that, the destination domain is, thus, characterised by an ‘open system’ of multiple
stakeholders. As “the tourism system context becomes increasingly fragmented and volatile” (Presenza and Cipollina, 2010),
stakeholder analysis in sustainability issues in tourism reflects an increasing recognisation of the extent to which stakeholders
can and/or should influence policymaking (Prell et al., 2009).
Stakeholder identification, however, is considered as a challenging task as no single definition of stakeholder is available
worldwide. Although Freeman et al. (2010) suggest problems around synthesising a single definition of stakeholders as few
serve an identical purpose, Mitchell et al. (1997) have offered a distinctive framework that identifies managerial perceptions
of stakeholders in terms of a combination of three core attributes. Their stakeholder identification, attributes and classification
typology are based on whether stakeholders possess the attributes of legitimacy, power, and urgency. ‘Legitimacy’ is defined
as “a generalised perception or assumption that the actions of an entity are desirable, proper, or appropriate within some
socially constructed system of norms, values, beliefs and definitions” (Mitchell et al., 1997). Legitimacy can be further divided
into sub-dimensions, namely derivative and normative (Phillips et al., 2015). The former takes into account the justification of
the affecting ability of a stakeholder from a managerial perspective, whereas the latter considers the softer moral obligations.
‘Power’, the second attribute, refers to the capacity, means and status that stakeholders can impose on the decision-making of
an organisation (Mitchell et al., 1997). ‘Power’ can be embodied in the three forms: coercive (e.g. the use of force, restraint or
violence), utilitarian (material resources such as financial reward or punishment) or normative (symbolic resources such as
media attention or reputation) (Majoch et al., 2017). Finally, ‘urgency’ is described as “the degree to which stakeholder claims
call for immediate attention” (Mitchell et al., 1997). ‘Urgency’ measures the extent of responsiveness of an organisation to the
claims or demands from a stakeholder, which usually results from the conditions of time sensitivity and criticality. Time
sensitivity concerns the time pressure on an organisation to deal with an issue, while criticality refers to the significance of the
demands or the relationship between the organisation and the stakeholder (Mitchell et al., 1997).
Although stakeholder analysis asks which policy actors should be included, this approach tends to underestimate the
significance of dynamics of stakeholder interconnectedness at a destination level. One added value of this study is that an
integrated network approach provided an analytical tool to systematically and quantitatively examine the relationship structures
of given network nodes (i.e. policy stakeholders). Treating a social structure as a network is the cornerstone of network analysis
(Scott, 2013). According to Burt (1992), a social network, as an embedded social system, explicitly consists of multiple actors
(i.e. nodes) in a collective nature. Policy networks are linkages between actors who have common interests in public
policymaking (including policy formulation and implementation) (Robins, 2015). Mathematically, a policy network is a graph
that provides a valuable lens for comprehending the structures and collaborative destination policymaking between government
bodies, private tourism firms and civil society. Tourism policy networks could be used as a framework for an understanding
of engagement of diverse policy communities and their influence on policymaking in a tourism context (Dredge, 2006).
Thereby, a network analysis goes beyond ‘attributes’ of individual policy actors to investigate how they are positioned within
a policy system (Timur and Getz, 2008).

icshge.org
III. CASE STUDY: WATER AND TOURISM IN SINGAPORE

The Republic of Singapore is situated between Malaysia and Indonesia (Figure 1) The diamond-shaped main island,
together with more than 60 surrounding smaller islands, is located in the rain belt of the equator (130 km north) (Bhullar,
2013). Singapore receives an average of 2,497 mm of precipitation annually (Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United
Nations, 2018). Unfortunately, Singapore has a finite land area and unfavourable topography to catch and store the abundant
rainfall (Tortajada et al., 2013). Further, the island has no freshwater lakes or groundwater resources (Reig et al., 2013).
Figure 1. Location of Singapore.
In spite of its water vulnerability, the small island city-state is a prime tourist destination on a global scale (Chung and
Parker, 2010). The tourism industry in Singapore saw over 15 million international visitor arrivals in the five consecutive years
(i.e. 2013–2017), which tripled that of 2001 (Figure 2). Generally, nearly half of international visitors to Singapore stay at
hotels (Singapore Tourism Board, 2002, Singapore Tourism Board, 2008, Singapore Tourism Board, 2018a). With an average
of approximately 3.5 hotel guest nights (Singapore Tourism Board, 2018a), over 25 million annual hotel guest nights are
observed respectively from 2011 to 2017.
Studies show that the tourism industry only accounts for a minor share (less than 1%) of total water use worldwide
(Gössling, 2013). Singapore, however, is an exception. The water consumption in Singapore’s hotel sector alone could amount
to 6.56 million m³2 (or 1.44% of national potable water use3) in 2001. That has sharply increased to about 15.13 million m³4
(or 3.03% of national potable water use5) in 2017. Thus, management of water resources has become a challenging but crucial
task to ensure the long-term viability and sustainability of the tourism industry (Gössling et al., 2012).
million
2
Based on the amount of hotel guest nights (i.e. 12.15 million in 2001) (Figure 2) and the average water use per guest night (i.e. 0.54 m³)
Pacific Asia Travel Association 2015. The connected visitor economy - water and tourism. Bangkok: Pacific Asia Travel Association.
3
As of the total potable water use of 455.2 million m³ in 2001 TAN, C. K. 2012. Chapter IX: Singapore. In: Chiplunkar, A., Seetharam, K.
& Tan, C. K. (eds.) Good Practices in Urban Water Management: Decoding Good Practices for a Successful Future. Manila and Singapore:
Asian Development Bank..
4
Based on the amount of hotel guest nights (i.e. 28.01 million in 2017) (Figure 2) and the average water use per guest night (i.e. 0.54 m³)
5
As of the total potable water use of 499.4 million m³ in 2017 Department of Statistics Singapore 2018.
Yearbook of statistics Singapore, 2018 In: Department of Statistics Singapore (ed.). Singapore: Department of Statistics Singapore,
Ministry of Trade & Industry.

icshge.org
30
25
International
Visitor Arrivals
20
15
Total Hotel
Guest Nights
10
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Figure 2. International Arrivals to Singapore (2001–2017).

Source: Singapore Tourism Board, 2002, Singapore Tourism Board, 2003, Singapore Tourism Board, 2004, Singapore Tourism Board, 2005, Singapore
Tourism Board, 2006, Singapore Tourism Board, 2007, Singapore Tourism Board, 2008, Singapore Tourism Board, 2009, Singapore Tourism Board,
2010, Singapore Tourism Board, 2011, Singapore Tourism Board, 2012, Singapore Tourism Board, 2013, Singapore Tourism Board, 2014, Singapore
Tourism Board, 2015, Singapore Tourism Board, 2016, Singapore Tourism Board, 2018a, Singapore Tourism Board, 2018b
IV. METHODS
A. Data Collection and Analysis
Formal organisational entities situated in the case study destination (i.e. Singapore) are treated as the basic units of
analysis for examining the relationships and network structure. Organisations are considered as adequately presenting stable
social entities with a manageable number of actors for the research objectives. Considering the study’s purpose, this study
adopts rigorous data collection methods by gathering various forms of data, including questionnaires, document review and
email contact.
B. Preliminary Document Analysis
The initial document review provides “a first impression of a policy field” (Bogason and Zølner, 2007) and local
background information, through which to begin to understand the research issues (Pforr, 2015). In the meantime, the
participation (or decision) approach identifies a set of ‘seed’ policy actors involved in WDM in Singapore’s hotel sector from
existing document sources.
C. Email Contact
Subsequently, a ‘snowballing’ technique was adopted in email contact to identify more relevant policy actors (Melbeck,
1998). To minimise misunderstanding and ambiguity of the concept of WDM, the scope of WDM in Singapore’s hotel sector
was presented to the respondents. In this study, boundary-spanning personnel (i.e. the senior management or the delegates
responsible for policymaking regarding WDM in Singapore’s hotel sector) were asked a ‘name generator’ question by the
“free recall approach” (Prell, 2012).
Which organisation(s) located in Singapore are perceived to have either an actual or potential effect on policy formulation
and implementation of water demand management (WDM) in Singapore’s hotel sector? Please list as many names as you can
recall.
The newly nominated policy actors were emailed and asked the same ‘name generator’ question to list even more
stakeholders for the study (Prell et al., 2009). The procedure continued until no new organisational stakeholders were
recommended and the researcher felt that the saturation had been achieved (Bryman, 2008). Eventually a total of thirty-three
policy stakeholders/stakeholder groups from the public, private and third sectors have been identified containing not only the
‘seed’ actors but also the nominees. Once the study scope was determined, two independent but complementary data collection
methods were employed for the analytical framework: document analysis (content analysis) and questionnaire survey.
D. Document Analysis
A series of social network analyses (SNA) were conducted on the quantifiable data collected for a 15-year time span
(2001–2015) of policy documents available in the public domain. The main reason for choosing 2001 as the starting point is
that the Public Utilities Board (PUB), as the holistic national water authority of Singapore, was reconstituted in 2001 under
the Public Utilities Act 2001 (PU Act) (Tan, 2012).
Electronic databases and the printed resources situated at the Lee Kong Chian Reference Library, the national library of

icshge.org
Singapore, were selected for analysis. To create the dataset for analysis, a keyword search (with variation) was performed
using the library online catalogue, with the five terms: sustainability, sustainable development, sustainable tourism, water
policy and water management. A total of 241 valid entries were kept for further analysis.
To minimise the chance of missing entries, another round of supplementary data search was conducted by examining the
documents from official websites of the identified organisations 6. By reading the documents and transcripts related to WDM
in Singapore’s hotel sector, additional 137 relevant entries were identified. Finally a total of 378 policy documents were
selected. For each of them, the following variables were collected: document title, document contributor(s) (i.e. policy
stakeholders) and year of launch.
E. Questionnaire Survey
Of the identified target population, standardised survey questionnaires were released to collect data for statistical analysis.
Among them, 12 were sent to governmental organisations in the public sector, 200 to the private sector enterprises and 20 to
the third sector members. The questionnaire contains three questions, which focus on exploring the three widely recognised
stakeholder salience attributes. Specifically, respondents were requested to identify stakeholders/stakeholder groups that they
perceive to be legitimate, powerful and urgent in the policy domain. A total of 89 questionnaires were collected back by 30
June 2016. After the incomplete cases have been removed, the final usable sample size is 71, which indicates a response rate
of 35.5%.
V. RESULTS
A. Policy Stakeholder Network
Document data analysis consists of three major stages in this study. First of all, descriptive overviews are presented on
the collection of relevant policy documents produced from 2001 to 2015. Specifically, the amount of documents and forms of
document contribution are reviewed. To visualise the stakeholder relationships, the policy stakeholder network, is mapped
through Netdraw. Following this, a range of network measures are calculated with the assistance of UCINET VI. This procedure
allows for a structural understanding of how the network actors are interconnected.
B. Trends and Patterns of Policy Documents
Figure 3 shows the total number of policy documents in the dataset against the number of co-contributed documents by
year. There has been a substantial increase in the number of co-contributed documents as well as the total number of documents
from 2001 onwards. Of the total 378 policy documents collected, co-contributed documents occupy a much larger part (86.5%)
of the data set than single-contributed ones. In addition, nearly half of the co-contributed documents (49.5%) were produced
in the most recent study period (2013–2015).
120
100
80
60
Total
40
Co-contributed
20 documents
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Figure 3. The Number of Documents and Co-contributed Documents.
C. Underlying Structure of Policy Stakeholder Network

Once relational data was collected, a series of data matrix construction and transformation were carried out for data
analysis. This analysis focuses on the presence rather than the quality of co-contribution of policy stakeholders. Thus the
6
The content analysis and questionnaire survey are using consistent stakeholder groups in the sense of “sample integration of legitimation” Wald, A. 2014.
Triangulation and validity of network data. In: Domínguez, S. & Hollstein, B. (eds.) Mixed Methods Social Networks Research: Design and Applications.
New York: Cambridge University Press.

icshge.org
strength of these relational data is not taken into consideration in network visualisation. Specifically, the map works with
dichotomous ties (e.g. ‘1’ for co-contribution(s) existed and ‘0’ no co-contribution existed).
With the assist of Netdraw, the overall pattern of policy stakeholder connections for the time period 2001–2015 is mapped
(Figure 4). The nodes in the network stand for policy stakeholders and the ties denote their connections. The map identifies
both the relational policy stakeholders and their structural linkages regarding formal contacts as manifested on documents.
Figure 4 presents a general composition of the thirty-three policy stakeholders from three different sectors (e.g. ‘ ’for the
public sector, ‘ ’ for the private sector and ‘ ’ for the third sector) within the network. In the network, if two stakeholders
are connected by a line, then must co-appear at least once for policymaking in a document.
One characteristic of the policy stakeholder network employed in the research is density, which is defined as the number
of ties actually existing in a network in relation to the theoretically possible number of relationships (de Nooy et al., 2011).
Analytically, it is the coefficient between the number of actual ties and the number of maximum ties calculated on the basis of
network size (Casanueva et al., 2016). This measure was used to determine structural characteristics of the formal contacts.
The density measure can range from a minimum of ‘0’ to a maximum of ‘1’. The network may tend to be dense (with numerous
ties) or sparse (with few ties). A high network density suggests a high degree of connection among the stakeholders in the
policy context. The density of the network is 0.75, which is considered relatively high. This means that 75% of the potential
direct connections during 2001–2015 have been actually presented. The high density may indicate a high overall cohesion in
the network. It should also be noted that the figure might imply some potential to connect to more policy stakeholders in future
collaboration.
Density measures the extent to which all the ties are actually presented, whereas network degree-based centralisation
measures the extent that ties hover around one actor (Scott, 2013). The degree centralisation index of 25.78%, which does not
yet reach 50%, indicates a relatively flat network structure. It appears that certain policy actors (if not a single one) in the
network tend to be much more central than other ones.
SNA, as an analytical tool allows the researcher to go beyond the structure of entire policy stakeholder networks. In what
follows, it is necessary to have an improved understanding of the neighbourhoods, or its egocentric networks, of a policy
stakeholder. It is intended to discover how an individual document contributor corresponds their social relations (or ties) with
others in policymaking for the past 15 years. An egocentric network contains a focal policy stakeholder (or ego policy
stakeholder), a certain number of alters (or immediate neighbours) having or ties to the focal individual document contributor
and associated interconnections among these alters (Prell, 2012).
Ego-network size helps identify the total number of altering policy stakeholders that an ego policy stakeholder is directly
connected to during the past 15 years. The results suggest that the following policy stakeholders tend to form a core cluster:
BCA, PUB, MEWR, NEA, SPRING, hotel entities and hotel property developers/architects/builders. Each of these ego policy
stakeholders embraces more than 90% of the stakeholders/stakeholder groups in the policy domain, which suggest the openness
tendency of them. The central network location indicates their importance to stakeholder collaboration within the policy
network structure. The remaining document contributors are either secondary actors situated towards the central location or
actors towards the periphery. Although there is no such node that is entirely isolated from others in the overall policy
stakeholder network, some (e.g. SDC, STB, and CLC) tend to be peripherised within the network structure. The outlying actors
could suggest that they are not strongly connected to other document contributors.
Normalised ego-betweenness attempts to measure a focal policy stakeholder’s potential to engage others through
calculating the extent to which an ego policy stakeholder is part of the relationships among the alter ones (Hanneman and
Riddle, 2005). In the analysis, BCA and PUB have the highest normalised ego-betweenness index, followed by MEWR, SHA
and hotel entities. It suggests a large potential for these policy stakeholders to engage other players in policymaking for WDM
in Singapore’s hotel sector. The relatively low ego-betweenness for CLC and STB, polytechnics, SAC, SGBC and REDAS
indicate that these policy actors have a far flatter ego-network structure where other policy actors have a much higher potential
to be connected in policymaking even without the presence of these focal policy actors.
D. Stakeholder Salience
In order to locate legitimate, powerful and urgent policy stakeholders of WDM in Singapore’s hotel sector, questionnaire
data collected was analysed to determine whether or not central policy stakeholders are among the salient stakeholders. Three
measures are combined in the form of a three-dimensional scatter plot (Figure 5). Scaled to 100 (%), the x-axis refers to the
‘power’ of policy stakeholders, on the y-axis their ‘legitimacy’ is displayed, and from z-axis the ‘urgency’ of policy
stakeholders is derived. The relative position of each policy stakeholder in this 3-D space provides a clear overview of their
overall salience in the policy network.

icshge.org
Sectors Stakeholders/Stakeholder Groups

Public Building and Construction Authority (BCA)
Centre for Liveable Cities (CLC)
Economic Development Board (EDB)
Ministry of the Environment and Water Resources (MEWR)
National Environment Agency (NEA)
National Parks Board (NParks)
Public Utilities Board (PUB)
Sentosa Development Corporation (SDC)
Singapore Accreditation Council (SAC)
Singapore Tourism Board (STB)
Standards, Productivity and Innovation Board (SPRING)
Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA)
Private Consulting and advisory service providers
Corporate headquarter/Parent company of hotels (in Singapore)
Hotel building owners/equity investors
Hotel entities
Hotel property developers/Architects/Builders
Water service companies/Water solutions
Water-wise fixture suppliers/Plumbers
Third Media/Press
Universities (in Singapore)
Institution of Engineers Singapore (IES)
Singapore Institute of Architects (SIA)
Singapore Environment Council (SEC)
Singapore Green Building Council (SGBC)
Singapore Hotel Association (SHA)
Polytechnics (in Singapore)
Singapore Water Association (SWA)
Waterways Watch Society (WWS)
Singapore Plumbing Society (SPS)
Real Estate Developers’ Association of Singapore (REDAS)
Singapore Sanitary Ware Importers and Exporters Association (SSWIEA)
Association of Consulting Engineers, Singapore (ACES)
Legend:
Public Sector
Private Sector
Third Sector
Figure 4. Structure of Policy Stakeholder Network (2001–2015).

icshge.org
Figure 5. 3-D Scatter Plot of Stakeholder Salience.

Note: See Figure 4 for the full titles of abbreviated organisation names
The scattergram reveals that PUB and BCA are the salient policy stakeholders. Both stakeholders have high levels of
involvement of policy document composition enabling them to assert government control over policymaking. SHA is a most
balanced policy actor according to all the three stakeholder attribute criteria. Therefore, the hotel industry association is the
only representative of the third sector that achieves a relatively high overall ranking in the scattergram. Next to SHA, hotel
property developers/architects/builders and hotel entities are relatively balanced policy stakeholders to the three criteria
indicators. Consequently, the two representatives from the private sector achieve relatively high rankings in the scatter plot as
well.
VI. DISCUSSION
How stakeholders work together towards common goals of sustainable tourism is determined by the stakeholder
relationships established in a policy network (Dredge and Jenkins, 2007). The findings reveal that although different
stakeholders could play crucial roles in developing sustainable tourism policies, some public sector bureaucracies (e.g. PUB,
BCA, MEWR, and NEA) are expected to take a prominent role in the policy field. The survey result corresponds to the content
analysis results. Naturally, these government players score highly in stakeholder attributes as they are the ones responsible for
Singapore’s sustainability issues. Sustainable tourism policymaking, therefore, could be perceived to be subordinated to
administrative or political priorities. Also they have been well connected with other policy actors over the past 15-year period.
Notably, none of the dominant public authorities is a typical player in the tourism and hospitality industry. For instance,
the role of PUB is in sustainable water management of the island city-state. The following words from Mr. Lee Kuan Yew,
Singapore’s founding father, could explain why the diverse stakeholder respondents expect the PUB to take the prominent role
in the policy domain: “… this (water) dominate(s) every other policy. Every other policy ha(s) to bend at the knees of water
survival” (Lidé, 2017) as Singapore’s “demand for water far exceeds its naturally occurring supply” (Reig et al., 2013).
As “government cannot be expected to solve our public problem in isolation” (Orr, 2013), some private sector members,
including the stakeholder groups of hotel entities and hotel property developers/architects/builders, are also important in
policymaking. While Singapore’s hotel sector has achieved robust growth in the last decade or two (Chung and Parker, 2010),
sustainability challenges in the water intensive sector are becoming more evident (Tan and Kwek, 2016). Therefore, other
policy stakeholders may have numerous ties to hotel entities and hotel property developers/architects/builders in the stages of
design, construction, operation and occupation for WDM matters.
Unlike in the public and private sectors, there might not be a third sector member that consistently plays a significant role
in sustainable tourism policymaking. From a policy network perspective, it is vital to work with various sectors; otherwise
achieving sustainable tourism would be rather difficult (Dredge and Jenkins, 2007). Since greater integration in the tourism
policy domain is seen as prerequisite to ensure more sustainable outcomes (Hall, 2008), it is crucial for (central) policy actors
to link together other actors of the network. The ability to act as a ‘broker’ heavily relies on the central players’ abilities to

icshge.org
make connections between others in the networks (Racherla and Hu, 2010). For example, SHA, which is umbrella body for
hotels in Singapore, could be considered an emerging third sector member in the policy context.
The findings highlight the fact that policy stakeholders from all the three sectors believe (sustainable) tourism
policymaking is not only a business of the tourism sector. Instead, many other (non-tourism) organisations which are concerned
about sustainability issues should not be neglected. It is also noticed that although the concept of decentralised policymaking
combining government, industry and community is supported by some scholars (Crase and O'Keefe, 2011, Lemos and
Agrawal, 2009), the significance of governmental authorities appear to be unsubstitutable for solutions to collaborative
economic, environmental and social problems. For instance, the more collaboration the other policy stakeholders depend on
PUB, the more likely that they would regard the national water agency as powerful. This could, in return, facilitate the
government authority to hold a more central position and become even more influential in the policy context. In an ideal
situation, policy networks for sustainable tourism development would be ‘non-hierarchical’ in nature (Dredge and Jenkins,
2007). However, the case study of WDM in Singapore’s hotel sector may suggest that an ‘ideal’ policy network, in reality,
“occurs very rarely, if at all” (Thompson and Pforr, 2005).
VII. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

This study uses a classical stakeholder analysis and the rigorous approach network analysis to investigate the relationship
between stakeholders in a sustainable tourism policy context. Each of them, together with triangulation data collection
methods, has generated complimentary results and helped the researcher to better understanding the sustainable tourism policy
system under scrutiny: WDM in Singapore’s hotel sector.
The stakeholder analysis provides the best insights into policymaking as stakeholder involvement is of significance to
sustainable tourism development (Edgell and Swanson, 2019). In tourism policymaking, the views of numerous stakeholders
must be taken into account, including the responsible government authorities, industry players and NGOs (Dredge and Jenkins,
2007). A policy framework in which sustainable tourism policymaking can be achieved is developed by identifying the key
stakeholders through survey questionnaires. Then three core characteristics, legitimacy, power and urgency, are employed to
distinguish between policy stakeholders that are important or unimportant for sustainable tourism policymaking.
A network approach contributes to techniques for examining the structure of policy stakeholder collaboration based on
policy documents. Methodologically, public policy documents have served as one of the typical vehicles for analysing patterns
of relationships among policy stakeholders (Bogason and Zølner, 2007). With the SNA component of this study, the central
policy stakeholders are identified in the policy development seen through the selected policy documents. Meanwhile, the
network size and network cohesion suggest an openness and vibrancy of WDM in Singapore’s hotel sector as a policy system.
Although the policy system witnesses collaborations centered around certain stakeholders, the notable interrelatedness of
multiple stakeholders are indeed a trend for cross-sectoral collaboration in sustainable tourism.
The research questions whether an advantageous network position or salience comes first as “an actor’s level of
involvement or activity in the network … does not consider whether or not an actor is seen as influential or popular” (Prell,
2012). That is to say, that either the central position of an actor is well-established because it is perceived as a salient
stakeholder or an actor is seen as a salient stakeholder because it has connections to numerous policy actors. Both statements
could make sense, at least in the case of Singapore.
In spite of the valuable and interesting subject for research, it is appropriate at this point to acknowledge that the causes
and consequences of network structures and stakeholder salience are yet to be examined. Equal emphasis on qualitative
methods is advisable for further exploration to supplement the quantitative description of the results, which may help define
and justify more stakeholder attributes and the interactional nature of the relationships. For example, open-ended questions
also facilitate an expanded interpretation of the quality as well as the content of interaction between and among the public,
third and third sector members.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This study is supported by The University of Otago Postgraduate Publishing Bursary (Doctoral), New Zealand.
REFERENCES
Afonso, A. S. & Rodrigues, C. P. 2014. Water policy for buildings. In: Adeyeye, K. (ed.) Water Efficiency in Buildings: Theory and Practice. Chichester:
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Araral, E. & Wang, Y. 2013. Water demand management: review of literature and comparison in South-East Asia. International Journal of Water
Resources Development, 29, 434-450.
Becken, S. & Dolnicar, S. 2016. Uptake of resource efficiency measures among European small and medium-sized accommodation and food service
providers. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 26, 45-49.
Bhullar, L. 2013. Climate change adaptation and water policy: lessons from Singapore. Sustainable Development, 21, 152-159.
Black, M. 2016. Atlas of water: mapping the world's most critical resource, Oakland, University of California Press.
Bogason, P. & Z Lner, M. 2007. Methods for network governance research: an introduction. In: Bogason, P. & Z Lner, M. (eds.) Methods in democratic
network governance. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan UK.
Briassoulis, H. & Straaten, J. V. D. 2000. Tourism and the environment: regional, economic, cultural, and policy issues, Dordrecht and Boston, Kluwer
Academic Publishers.
Bryman, A. 2008. Of methods and methodology. Qualitative Research in Organizations and Management: An International Journal, 3, 159-168.

icshge.org
Burt, R. S. 1992. Structural holes: the social structure of competition, Cambridge, Harvard University Press.
Butler, D. & Memon, F. A. 2005. Water demand management, London and Seattle, IWA Publishing.
Byrd, E. T. 2007. Stakeholders in sustainable tourism development and their roles: applying stakeholder theory to sustainable tourism development.
Tourism Review, 62, 6-13.
Casanueva, C., Gallego, Á. & Garc A-S Nchez, M.-R. 2016. Social network analysis in tourism. Current Issues in Tourism, 19, 1190-1209.
Chung, L. H. & Parker, L. D. 2010. Managing social and environmental action and accountability in the hospitality industry: A Singapore perspective.
Accounting Forum, 34, 46-53.
Crase, L. & O'keefe, S. (eds.) 2011. Water policy, tourism, and recreation: lessons from Australia, Abingdon and New York: RFF Press.
Day, J. & Chin, N. 2018. Tourism, energy, oil and water. In: Cooper, C., Volo, S., Gartner, W. C. & Scott, N. (eds.) The SAGE Handbook of Tourism
Management: Theories, Concepts, and Disciplinary Approaches to Tourism. London: Sage Publications Ltd.
De Nooy, W., Mrvar, A. & Batagelj, V. 2011. Exploratory social network analysis with Pajek. 2nd ed. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Department of Statistics Singapore 2018. Yearbook of Statistics Singapore, 2018 In: Department of Statistics Singapore (ed.). Singapore: Department of
Statistics Singapore, Ministry of Trade & Industry.
Deyà Tortella, B. & TIRADO, D. 2011. Hotel water consumption at a seasonal mass tourist destination. The case of the island of Mallorca. Journal of
Environmental Management, 92, 2568-2579.
Dredge, D. 2006. Policy networks and the local organisation of tourism. Tourism Management, 27, 269-280.
Dredge, D. & Jenkins, J. M. 2007. Tourism planning and policy, Milton, John Wiley & Sons Australia.
Edgell, D. L. & Swanson, J. R. 2019. Tourism Policy and Planning: Yesterday, Today, And Tomorrow, Abingdon And New York, Routledge.
Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations 2018. Average Precipitation in Depth (Mm Per Year). Washington, Dc: The World Bank Group.
Freeman, R. E., Harrison, J. S. & Wicks, A. C. 2010. Stakeholder Theory the State of the Art, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
Gössling, S. 2013. Tourism and Water: Interrelationships and Management [Online]. Canberra: Global Water Forum. Available:
Http://Www.Globalwaterforum.Org/2013/07/16/Tourism-And-Water-Interrelationships-And-Management/ [Accessed 11 October 2017].
Gössling, S., Hall, C. M. & Scott, D. 2015. Tourism and Water, Bristol, Channel View Publications.
Gössling, S., Peeters, P., Hall, C. M., Ceron, J.-P., Dubois, G., Lehmann, L. V. & Scott, D. 2012. Tourism and Water Use: Supply, Demand, And Security.
An International Review. Tourism Management, 33, 1-15.
Hadjikakou, M., Chenoweth, J. & Miller, G. 2013. Estimating The Direct and Indirect Water Use of Tourism in The Eastern Mediterranean. Journal of
Environmental Management, 114, 548-556.
Hall, C. M. 2008. Tourism Planning: Policies, Processes and Relationships, Harlow And New York, Prentice Hall.
Hall, C. M. & Page, S. 2014. The Geography of Tourism and Recreation: Environment, Place and Space, Abingdon And New York, Routledge.
Hanneman, R. A. & Riddle, M. 2005. Introduction to Social Network Methods [Online]. Riverside: University of California, Riverside. Available:
Http://Faculty.Ucr.Edu/~Hanneman/Nettext/C9_Ego_Networks.Html [Accessed 8 January 2018].
Hawkins, R. & Bohdanowicz, P. 2012. Responsible Hospitality: Theory and Practice, Oxford, Goodfellow.
Haywood, K. M. 1988. Responsible and Responsive Tourism Planning in The Community. Tourism Management, 9, 105-118.
Hotel Energy Solutions. 2018. About Us [Online]. Madrid: Hotel Energy Solutions. Available: Http://Hotelenergysolutions.Net/Content/About-Us-6
[Accessed 17 August 2018].
Jamal, T. B. & Getz, D. 1995. Collaboration Theory and Community Tourism Planning. Annals of Tourism Research, 22, 186-204.
Lemos, M. C. & Agrawal, A. 2009. Environmental Governance and Political Science. In: Delmas, M. A. & Young, O. R. (Eds.) Governance for the
Environment: New Perspectives. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Lidé, S. 2017. Water Management Strategy (Singapore). In: Carvalho, L., Berg, L. V. D., Galal, H. & P., T. (Eds.) Delivering Sustainable Competitiveness:
Revisiting The Organising Capacity of Cities. London And New York: Routledge.
Majoch, A. A. A., Hoepner, A. G. F. & Hebb, T. 2017. Sources of Stakeholder Salience in The Responsible Investment Movement: Why Do Investors Sign
the Principles for Responsible Investment? Journal of Business Ethics, 140, 723-741.
Mason, P. 2016. Tourism Impacts, Planning and Management, London And New York, Routledge.
Melbeck, C. 1998. Comparing Local Policy Networks. Journal of Theoretical Politics, 10, 531-552.
Mitchell, R. K., Agle, B. R. & Wood, D. J. 1997. Toward A Theory of Stakeholder Identification and Salience: Defining The Principle of Who and What
Really Counts. The Academy of Management Review, 22, 853-886.
Orr, S. K. 2013. Environmental Policymaking and Stakeholder Collaboration Theory and Practice. Baton Rouge: Crc Press.
Pforr, C. 2015. Tourism Governance and The Influence of Stakeholder Networks – A Case Study from Western Australia. In: Pechlaner, H. & Smeral, E.
(Eds.) Tourism and Leisure: Current Issues and Perspectives of Development. Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden.
Phillips, R., Freeman, R. E. & Wicks, A. C. 2015. What stakeholder theory is not. Business Ethics Quarterly, 13, 479-502.
Prell, C. 2012. Social network analysis: History, theory and methodology, Los Angeles and London, Sage Publications Ltd.
Prell, C., Hubacek, K. & Reed, M. 2009. Stakeholder analysis and social network analysis in natural resource management. Society & Natural Resources,
22, 501-518.
Presenza, A. & Cipollina, M. 2010. Analysing tourism stakeholders networks. Tourism Review, 65, 17-30.
Racherla, P. & Hu, C. 2010. A social network perspective of tourism research collaborations. Annals of Tourism Research, 37, 1012-1034.
Reig, P., Maddocks, A. & Gassert, F. 2013. World's 36 most water-stressed countries [Online]. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute. Available:
https://www.wri.org/blog/2013/12/world-s-36-most-water-stressed-countries [Accessed 3 May 2018].
Rezaee, Z. & Choi, E. K. 2016. The Relevance of Business Sustainability in The Hotel Industry. In: Gardetti, M. A. & Torres, A. L. (eds.) Sustainability in
Hospitality: How Innovative Hotels Are Transforming the Industry. Sheffield: Greenleaf Publishing.
Robins, G. 2015. Doing social network research: network-based research design for social scientists, Los Angeles, Sage Publications Ltd.
Scott, J. 2013. Social network analysis: a handbook, London, Sage Publications Ltd.
Simons-Kaufman, C., Kaufmann, F., Sloan, P. & Legrand, W. 2012. Scarcity of Natural Resources or 'Cockaigne'. In: Sloan, P., Simons-Kaufman, C. &
Legrand, W. (eds.) Sustainable Hospitality and Tourism as Motors for Development: Case Studies from Developing Regions of the World London and
New York: Routledge.

icshge.org
Singapore Tourism Board 2002. The Annual Report On Tourism Statistics 2001. In: Singapore Tourism Board (Ed.). Singapore: Singapore Tourism Board.
Singapore Tourism Board 2018a. The Annual Report On Tourism Statistics 2016. In: Singapore Tourism Board (Ed.). Singapore: Singapore Tourism
Board.
Singapore Tourism Board 2018b. International Visitor Arrivals Statistics 2017. In: Singapore Tourism Board (Ed.). Singapore: Singapore Tourism Board.
Tan, C. K. 2012. Chapter Ix: Singapore. In: Chiplunkar, A., Seetharam, K. & Tan, C. K. (eds.) Good Practices in Urban Water Management: Decoding
Good Practices for a Successful Future. Manila and Singapore: Asian Development Bank.
Tan, Y. S. & Kwek, L. J. 2016. Environmental sustainability and sustainable development. In: TAN, Y. S. (ed.) Fifty Years of Environment, Singapore's
Journey Towards Environmental Sustainability. Singapore: World Scientific.
Thompson, G. & Pforr, C. 2005. Policy networks and good governance: a discussion. Perth: Curtin University of Technology.
Timur, S. & Getz, D. 2008. A network perspective on managing stakeholders for sustainable urban tourism. International Journal of Contemporary
Hospitality Management, 20, 445-461.
Tortajada, C., Joshi, Y. & Biswas, A. K. 2013. The Singapore water story: sustainable development in an urban city-state, Routledge, Taylor & Francis
Group.
Wald, A. 2014. Triangulation and validity of network data. In: Domínguez, S. & Hollstein, B. (eds.) Mixed Methods Social Networks Research: Design and
Applications. New York: Cambridge University Press.
World Tourism Organisation 2004. Indicators of sustainable development for tourism destinations: a guidebook, Madrid, The World Tourism Organisation.
World Tourism Organisation. 2018. 2017 international tourism results: the highest in seven years [Online]. Madrid: The World Tourism Organisation.
Available: http://media.unwto.org/press-release/2018-01-15/2017-international-tourism-results-highest-seven-years [Accessed 4 August 2018].

icshge.org
Do socio-demographic characteristics in waste management matter?

Case study of the production of recyclables in the Czech Republic
Rybová, K.
Department of Geography, Jan Evangelista Purkyne University in Usti nad Labem, Czech Republic
Abstract—The production of recyclables in the Czech Republic is in the long term under the European average but the
proportion from the municipal waste as a whole is growing over the last years. Based on the foreign studies we can assume
that this development can be connected among other things also to the ongoing demographic changes. Socio-demographic
development currently ongoing in the Czech Republic as well as other developed countries influence broad range of aspects
of social life including waste production and its structure. This paper aims at quantifying the relation between socio-
demographic characteristics of inhabitants in municipalities and production of recyclables. For this purpose, 13 variables
describing inhabitants, households and housing in 4 897 Czech municipalities were selected that can influence the production
of recyclables according to foreign studies. Data was analyzed using multidimensional linear regression. Even though, the
resulting model explains only 9%, it is statistically significant and implies that socio-demographic variables can help with
explaining the production of recyclables. From this point of view, important variables are average household size, share of
tertiary educated people, share of family houses, purchasing power per person, percentage of people employed in agriculture
and sex ratio. To increase the explained variability and also to emphasis the local differences in production of recyclables we
also used the geographically weighted regression (GWR). The results of GWR show that to understand the waste production
(at least in the Czech Republic) on municipal level it is necessary to consider also the spatial effects and regional specifics.
Keywords—recycling, Czech Republic, socio-demographic determinants, regression, spatial analysis
I. INTRODUCTION
I N January 2018, the European Union adopted a new set of measures as a part of Circular Economy Package that should
help transforming Europe’s economy into a more sustainable one. To implement this effort EU set clear targets for reducing
waste generation and promoting recycling, key elements of the proposal include a common EU goal for recycling 65% of
municipal waste by 2030. This target has to be implemented into Czech national legislation but based on the data from Eurostat,
it is quite clear that the Czech Republic is lagging behind in this matter and it could be quite difficult for us to reach the given
target value. In the 2016, the average recycling rate of municipal waste among all EU countries was 45.3%, whereas in the
Czech Republic it more than 10% less (namely 33.6%). The Czech Republic ranked with this value among the best Eastern
and Central European countries but stays far behind the leaders from the Western Europe (Eurostat, 2017). To improve the
situation changes in legislation would be certainly needed but the better understanding of who is recycling could be helpful
too. Based on the foreign studies it seems that there are significant differences in waste generation between households and
municipalities and for explaining these distinctions the description of socio-demographic characteristics of the producers could
be used. Unfortunately, for the Czech Republic, as for the most of other foreign countries, there are no data about waste
production and waste producers on household or even individual level available and that is why the most commonly analyzed
units are the municipalities. The municipal level is still sufficiently homogenous to capture the differences.
There is broad range of studies explaining the production of recyclables in various countries. The selection of factors
used for the explanation varies according to local conditions, data availability, units that are used in the analysis as well as
according to the consideration of particular researcher. In general, factors explaining generation of recyclables are usually
divided into two categories – individual and situational variables (Schultz et al., 1995). Among situational characteristics waste
management organization, logistics or charging policy are included (e.g. Bach et al., 2004; Gellynck et al., 2011; Kipperberg,
2007; Starr and Nicolson, 2015). On the other hand, there is also a broad range of studies dealing with individual factors such
as socio-economic or demographic factors (e.g. Beigl, 2004; Hage and Soderholm, 2008; Sterner and Bartelings, 1999; or
Khan et al., 2016).
Based on the foreign experience, it seems that the most important socio-demographic factors influencing or explaining
the production of recyclables are average household size, age, gender and attained education level. In the Czech Republic there
are not that many studies analyzing these factors in connection with recyclables, greater attention was focused so far on the
situational characteristics. That is why the aim of this paper is to fill in this gap and discuss the relevance of socio-demographic
characteristics for explaining the differences in generation of recyclables on municipal level in the Czech conditions. Data
used for this analysis have spatial character because they are connected with concrete spatial units, in our case municipalities.
That enables us to consider also geographical differences in the relation between socio-demographic factors and recycling rate.
The paper consists of four chapters and is structured as follows. The first chapter describes the current state of knowledge
in the research dealing with the socio-demographic determinants and its influence on generation of recyclables in developed
countries. In the second chapter, the method and data used for the purpose of the research in the Czech Republic are presented.
The third chapter introduces the main results of the research. In the last chapter the research results realized in the Czech
Republic are concluded and possibilities for further research are presented.
A. Factors influencing generation of recyclables
In the case of municipal waste production as a whole it seems that the most unambiguous characteristic is the average
household size - average generation of municipal waste per person falls with the growing number of household members

icshge.org
(Beigl, Lebersorger and Salhofer, 2008; Dennison, Dodd and Whelan, 1996; Johnstone and Labonne, 2004; Lebersorger and
Beigl, 2011). But regarding recyclables the situation does not seem that clear. Terry (2002) or Martin, Williams and Clark
(2006) discovered no statistically significant relation. Abbott, Nandeibam and O'Shea (2011) found significant relation only
between average household size and recycling of biowaste. Jenkins et al. (2003) and D’Elia (2008) discovered positive
connection with recycling rate that could mean that bigger households are in average recycling more than smaller ones.
Another regularly analyzed demographic characteristic is age or age distribution of municipalities’ inhabitants. There is
a problem of comparability of results regarding this indicator that arises because in some cases age is described in a form of
mean or median age, while in other cases percentage of people in particular age groups is taken into account, the age group
intervals differ among studies. Sidique, Joshi and Lupi (2010) found out a positive correlation between recycling rate and age.
Kipperberg (2007) confirmed their conclusions that age significantly influences recycling of paper, glass and metal. The
explanation is ambiguous. On the one hand, older people are probably less used to recycling, on the other hand they have lower
opportunity costs than younger people (Mazzanti and Zoboli, 2009). Waste recycling can be quite time consuming and
especially persons with high opportunity costs have to decide which activities they dedicate their time to. Sterner and Bartelings
(1999) also concluded that in the situation if the waste sorting consumes a lot of time, people are less willing to do it and they
produce more residual municipal waste. Terry (2002) discovered higher recycling rate in the age group 25-44 years. D’Elia
(2008) or Hage and Söderholm (2008) found no relation between recycling behavior and age.
Gender belongs to another often analyzed indicators. However, D’Elia (2008) or Hage and Söderholm (2008) discovered
no significant relation. This was supported also by the results of metaanalysis performed by Schultz et al. (1995). To explain
the production of recyclables, number of persons staying mostly at home may be more important than their gender. Usually,
women are the ones staying at home. According to Bach et al. (2004), municipalities with higher percentages of housewives
produce in average statistically less waste paper. Housewives are defined as “a male or female persons who does domestic
work for her/his own family without pay” (Bach et al., 2004, pp. 70). Authors do not assume any direct causality, the percentage
of household members staying at home could serve as an indicator for social structure of every particular municipality.
Similarly, Sterner and Bartelings (1999) came to the finding that the number of people staying at home during some part of
the day have positive effect on composting and these households produce also less municipal waste.
It seems the attained education of the waste producers could be also an important indicator in explanation of recycling
behavior. Sidique, Joshi and Lupi (2010) proved that the higher the proportion of people studying at least 4 years at the
university is, the higher is also the recycling rate of municipal rate. Miller et al. (2009) also supported this conclusion. If the
percentage of people 25 years and older with bachelor’s degree or higher increase by 1%, then the tons of recyclables will
increase by 0.7%. On the household level, Jenkins et al. (2003) found weak but significant influence of person with highest
attained education in the household on the recycling rate. If the level of education of this person increase from secondary to
university, the probability of recycling 95% of produced aluminous waste would rise by 0.1%, in the case of paper it would be
even 1.5%. Hage and Söderholm (2008) presented contradictory results, according to their conclusions the recycling rate of
plastic waste decreases with the attained education level. Authors explained this relation with higher opportunity costs of
households with higher education. No relation of education to waste sorting was detected by Šauer, Pařízková and Hadrabová
(2008) for the Czech Republic.
Further possible explaining variable according to the literature review could be also the presence of child or children in
the household. The relation to the recycling rate is in this case ambiguous too. Martin, Williams and Clark (2006) came to the
conclusion that young childless occupants and families with children are more likely to be non-recyclers. No relation was
found by D’Elia (2008).
Influence of population density on recycling was studied e.g. by Kipperberg (2007) who found out that its influence on
sorting of metal, plastics and biowaste was statistically significant and negative. His results were supported by Hage and
Söderholm (2008) on the example of sorting of plastics in Sweden. According to them, people living in densely populated
areas collect on average 530 g less plastic packaging waste per person than do the people living in smaller and less densely
populated localities. Hage and Söderholm (2008) defined densely populated city as a municipality with at least 800 residents
per km2. No significant relation between population density and recycling rate was discovered by Sidique, Joshi and Lupi
(2010).
Income is further broadly considered variable that has to be often omitted because of the data availability. Positive but
non-significant relation between income and recycling rate was described by Terry (2002), Jenkins et al. (2003) discovered
significant positive relation only in the case of sorting of waste paper. According to Sidique, Joshi and Lupi (2010), the relation
is entirely opposite. They estimated that a 1000-dollar increase in income per person and year will lead to a reduction of
recycling rate by 0.2 percentage point. No or rather weak influence of income on generation of recyclables was observed by
Abbott, Nandeibam and O'Shea (2011), Mazzanti and Zoboli (2009) and Hockett, Lober and Pilgrim (1995).
The relation between socio-demographic (as well as other factors) and waste recycling was analyzed by various one-
dimensional as well as multi-dimensional statistical methods, e.g. correlation analysis (e.g. Dennison, Dodd and Whelan,
1996), simple linear regression (among other methods Beigl et al., 2004), time series analysis or input-output analysis.
However, the most commonly used method was a multiple regression analysis (e.g. Beigl et al., 2004; Hage and Söderholm,
2008; Johnstone and Labonne, 2004; Lebersorger and Beigl, 2011 or Sterner and Bartelings, 1999). Quite interesting is the
fact that even though most of these studies are conducted on the municipal level their authors do not consider the spatial
dimension of the data. Nevertheless, the socio-demographic variables may be significantly correlated with spatial factors
(Zhang et al., 2015) and their influence on waste generation may differ in space (Keser, Duzgun and Aksoy, 2012). For

icshge.org
example, education may be positively correlated with MSW generation in one spatial unit (e.g. municipality, region or state)
and negatively in another one. In this case, the data shows a spatial non-stationarity that can misrepresent the results of
statistical methods not considering this aspect (e.g. multiple regression analysis). The number of studies dealing with spatial
variation in MSW data has been rather limited so far (e.g. Ismaila et al., 2015; Keser, Duzgun and Aksoy, 2012 or Rybová,
Burcin and Slavík, 2018).
II. DATA AND METHODOLOGY

A. Data
To create the database needed for the analysis, two data sources were connected. We used average production of
recyclables per capita and year in kilograms as dependent variable for non-spatial as well as spatial data analysis. The
production of recyclables was computed as sum of separately collected paper, plastics and glass. The total production in each
municipality was divided by the number of its inhabitants to eliminate the different population size of municipalities. The data
used for construction of the dependent variable were obtained from the database on waste management “Waste Management
Information System” (ISOH) operated by CENIA, Czech Environmental Information Agency. To the system, every waste
producer has to report his production every year if he satisfies the condition that he produces more than 100 kg of hazardous
or 100 tons of non-hazardous waste yearly (SMOCR, 2011). This involves also municipalities that are responsible for the
generation of municipal waste on their territory.
After exclusion of municipalities with no reported data about their production or with extreme values the sample consisted
of 4 897 municipalities from all Czech regions. The sample represents more than 80% of all Czech municipalities. The average
production of recyclables in 2011 was 35 kg per capita (see Table 1). The table shows that the production of sorted waste
streams differs broadly between municipalities. These differences we would like to explain with the socio-demographic
determinants.
TABLE I
BASIC STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR PRODUCTION OF RECYCLABLES (KG PER CAPITA), CR, 2011
Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation
Recyclables 2,0 124,7 35,1 17,9
Source: ISOH
Following map (Figure 1) shows the distribution of recyclables production on the municipal level. It is obvious that the
production presents a mosaic of varying values and it is difficult to find any pattern. In general, we can state that the waste
sorting activities are more prevalent in the western half of our state and in the vicinity of Brno (second biggest Czech city
situated in the southeast) the separated collection of waste is lower.
Figure 1. Production of recyclables in municipalities (kg per capita), CR, 2011. Source: ISOH
To explain the production of recyclables we selected 13 independent socio-demographic variables. Because some of these
selected variables are not collected yearly by the official statistics or any other institution at least on the municipal level (e.g.

icshge.org
household size or structure of the population according to attained level of education) we had to use the results from Census.
In the Czech Republic, the last Census was organized by Czech Statistical Office in 2011 (Czech Statistical Office, 2013).
That is the reason why we could analyze the relationship between dependent and independent variables only for this particular
year.
As an explaining variables we used following indicators:
− average household size in the municipality (HHS),
− percentage of households with children from all households in the municipality (Child),
− percentage of population with secondary education from all inhabitants 15 years old and older in the municipality
(Sec),
− percentage of population with tertiary education from all inhabitants 15 years old and older in the municipality (Ter),
− percentage of family houses in municipality from all dwellings in the municipality (Famh),
− percentage of flats with solid fuel heating system from all flats in the municipality (Heat),
− percentage of population aged 65 or more from all inhabitants in the municipality (Age65),
− median age,
− sex ratio as number of males per 100 females in the population of the municipality (IMA),
− percentage of unemployed in age group 15−64 years in the municipality (Unempl),
− population density of the municipality (Popden),
− purchasing power per person in € in the municipality (PPP),
− percentage of people employed in agriculture in the municipality (Agric).
The independent variables HHS, Child, Sec, Ter, Famh, Heat, Age65, IMA and Agric were obtained from the Population
census carried out by the Czech Statistical Office in 2011. Unempl and Popden were added from official records also compiled
by the Czech Statistical Office. The variable PPP was obtained from INCOMA GfK. The following table (Table 2) presents
basic statistical characteristics of used socio-demographic indicators.
TABLE II
BASIC STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR SELECTED SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS, CR 2011
Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation
HHS 1.3 3.5 2.6 0.2
Child 0.0 54.0 28.5 5.5
Sec 38.0 85.0 68.7 4.5
Ter 0.0 35.0 8.9 4.4
Famh 0.0 100.0 83.0 17.7
Heat 0.0 100.0 43.4 26.8
Age65 2.0 43.0 15.7 3.9
Medage 30.0 56.0 40.4 2.5
IMA 52.1 781.8 101.2 17.3
Unempl 0.0 30.0 7.3 3.3
Popden 1.5 2447.4 99.6 143.3
PPP 4619.9 9154.2 6767.8 557.5
Agric 0.0 23.8 3.3 2.7
Source: Czech Statistical Office, INCOMA GfK
B. Non-spatial analysis
To analyze the influence of socio-demographic determinants on the production of recyclables in municipalities multiple
linear regression was used. This method represents in our paper the group of “global methods” that do not consider the spatial
dimension of analyzed data. The used model can be described with following form:
𝑌𝑌𝑖𝑖 = 𝛽𝛽0 + 𝛽𝛽1 𝑋𝑋1𝑖𝑖 + 𝛽𝛽2 𝑋𝑋2𝑖𝑖 + 𝛽𝛽3 𝑋𝑋3𝑖𝑖 + ⋯ + 𝛽𝛽𝑘𝑘 𝑋𝑋𝑘𝑘𝑘𝑘 + 𝜀𝜀𝑖𝑖 , (1)
where Yi are observations of dependent variable, X1i, X2i, …, Xki are observations of independent variables, β0, β1, …, βk
are underlying regression coefficients and εi are random errors. Data studied using the linear regression have to fulfill the
assumptions of independence of random errors, identically distributed normal random variables with zero expectation and
constant variance σ2. Stability of error variability was tested via the Glejser test and its normality via the Kolmogorov-Smirnov
test. Linearity was examined using a scatterplot between standardized predicted values and standardized residuals (Lebersorger
and Beigl, 2011).
To estimate regression parameters, we used the standard ordinary least squares method (OLS) that was already used by a
few other authors in the reviewed studies (e.g. Bach et al., 2004; Hage and Söderholm, 2008; Lebersorger and Beigl, 2011).
To get a model with only statistically significant covariates, we used stepwise regression, backward selection with alpha for
removing variables equal to 0.1 (i.e. no independent variable with p-value greater than 0.1 will remain in the model) (SPSS,

icshge.org
2017). The model was computed using IBM SPSS 20 program package.
C. Spatial analysis
To test if the data are spatially stationary we used the Koenker's studentized Breusch-Pagan statistic. Significant result of
this test indicates that there is a statistically significant heteroscedasticity and/or nonstationarity in the data. Based on the
results of Koenker's statistics, we computated geographically weighted regression (GWR). In the case that there is the
possibility that the relation between dependent and independent variables differs over geographical space we can use GWR to
explore local relation by moving spatial kernel through study area. Kernel functions are used to calculate weights that represent
spatial dependence between observations. So, unlike OLS, GWR gives us so called local coefficients β that are specific for
each areal unit (Keser et al., 2012). For each model calibration location, i = 1…, n, the GWR model is:
𝑝𝑝−1
𝑌𝑌𝑖𝑖 = 𝛽𝛽𝑖𝑖0 + ∑𝑘𝑘=1 𝛽𝛽𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑋𝑋𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 + 𝜀𝜀𝑖𝑖 (2)
where Yi is the dependent variable value at location i,

Xik is the value of the kth covariate at location i,
βi0 is the intercept,
βik is the regression coefficient for the kth covariate,
p is the number of regression terms,
and εi is the random error at location i (Wheeler and Paez, 2010).
The GWR model was computed using ArcGIS program.

A. Non-spatial analysis
The resulting regression model computed with OLS consists of only 6 from original 13 variables (Table 3). Variables
significant on the 1% significance level were average household size, proportion of tertiary educated inhabitants, proportion
of family houses, purchasing power, proportion of inhabitants employed in agriculture. Sex ratio was significant on the 5%
level. Overall, the model is statistically significant but explains only 9% of the intermunicipal variability in the data.
TABLE III
RESULTS OF OLS FOR PRODUCTION OF RECYCLABLES, CR, 2011
Beta
Constant 46.900
HHS -10.801***
TER 0.456***
Famh -0.130***
PPP 0.004***
Agric 0.313***
IMA -0.030**
N 4897
R2 0.087
**, *** stand for statistical significance at 5%, respectively 1%
Source: own computations
The most important variable influencing the production of recyclables is the average household size. One person increase
in household size will lead to a reduction in average production of separated waste by 11 kg. Bigger households produce in
average per person less recyclable waste than smaller ones. It could be caused by less sorting activities but this relation is
obvious also regarding production of all municipal waste (e.g. Beigl et al., 2004). Households use some products regardless
their size, e.g. food, newspaper, packaging or some kinds of consumer goods (Dennison, Dodd and Whelan, 1996; Johnstone
and Labonne, 2004; Lebersorger and Beigl, 2011). Information about relation between household size and production of
recyclables are important for the municipal governments because of management of container sizes. Over the last decades the
average household size in the Czech Republic is steadily decreasing and this development will probably continue in future. It
is therefore justified to expect that smaller households will produce more waste.
Lower production of recyclables is connected also with municipalities with higher percentage of family houses and higher
share of men in the population. On the contrary, higher production of sorted waste streams is connected with higher share of
tertiary educated inhabitants, with higher proportion of inhabitants employed in agriculture and also with higher purchasing
power. In compliance with the results of studies by D’Elia (2008) and Hage and Söderholm (2008), age has no significant
effect on waste sorting. We could not prove that younger people recycle more than older people.
Our results support the conclusions of Sidique, Joshi and Lupi (2010), Miller et al. (2009) and Jenkins et al. (2003) about
relation between education and waste separation. 1% increase of proportion of tertiary educated inhabitants in the municipality
will lead to an increase in recycling by 0,5 kg per person. This relation was confirmed only for tertiary education, secondary
education has no significant impact on recycling. We also supported the results observed by Schultz et al. (1995) that recycling

icshge.org
activities are more typical for women than men. It means, in our case, that municipalities with lower sex ratio collect higher
amounts of recyclables.
B. Spatial analysis
Further, in order to analyze if the influence of the three most important socio-demographic variables is spatially stable we
computed the Koenker's studentized Breusch-Pagan statistic. The result of this test was statistically significant, which indicates
heteroscedasticity and/or nonstationarity. Therefore, the application of GWR is justified.
The GWR model explains 33 % of intermunicipal variation in the production of recyclables. The local R2 distribution for
analyzed municipalities varies from 0% to 86% as is depicted on the following map (Figure 2). We detected significant spatial
non-stationarity regarding influence of selected three independent variables on waste sorting that means that the relation to
recyclables production differs spatially, we can also detect regions with similar patterns of sorting behavior. It is interesting
that the local R2 does not correlate with population size of municipalities, demographic variables therefore do not explain
situation in smaller cities better than in bigger cities or vice versa.
Figure 2. The local R2 distribution for GWR model, CR, 2011. Source: own computations
Regarding all three variables on the global level we came to the conclusion that their relation to production of recyclables
is explicitly positive or negative. However, in all three cases on the local level the relation is ambiguous. On the local level,
55% of analyzed municipalities show negative coefficient estimates for household size, on the contrary, in 45% of
municipalities the coefficient is positive. In the case of tertiary education, on the local level 65% of all coefficient estimates
are positive and 35% negative. Regarding the family houses, there are 73% of municipalities with negative coefficients and
27% with positive.
IV. CONCLUSIONS
The aim of this article was to evaluate the impact of socio-demographic characteristics on the production of recyclables
and what trends can be expected due to further demographic development. In the Czech Republic there are no available data
on the level of individuals or households, therefore the analysis was carried out on the level of municipalities. This approach,
of course, leads to some simplifications in assessing the behavior of the population regarding their environmental behavior,
but in this case it is the only option for statistical analysis and has already been used in a number of other studies (e.g. Hage
and Söderholm, 2008; Beigl et al., 2004; Lebersorger and Beigl, 2011).
Based on the reviewed studies, we have created 13 socio-demographic variables that could contribute to explaining the
intermunicipal variability of produced recyclables. For analysis we used at first the multiple linear regression method. The
resulting model explains less than 9% of the variability in the production of separated waste. This means that there are still
other factors that have a greater influence on the production of analyzed types of waste (e.g. economic and political instruments,
internal convictions), nevertheless we proved that the impact of socio-demographic characteristics is statistically significant
and cannot be neglected.
From the 13 selected independent variables analyzed were only 6 statistically significant - average household size,
proportion of tertiary educated inhabitants, proportion of family houses, purchasing power, proportion of inhabitants employed
in agriculture and sex ratio. It was not confirmed that age has any impact on waste recycling. In accordance with foreign

icshge.org
studies, the most important socio-demographic variable is the average household size, with an increasing household size the
average production of recyclables is decreasing. We are already seeing a decrease in the average size of households and an
increase in the number of households in the Czech society and the continuing of this trend can be expected in the future as
well. For waste management, including the production of recyclables, this long-term trend may mean an increase in average
waste production per person, and there may be an overall increase in the volume of waste production because the Czech
Republic has still stable or even slightly growing number of inhabitants.
Further, we selected three most important significant socio-demographic variables according to linear regression and used
them for geographically weighted regression. This method helped to increase the explained variability but showed that the
influence of selected variables is no stable spatially and the coefficients for particular variable could gain negative as well as
positive values in different municipalities. This situation can diminish the detected variability explained by OLS and can lead
to neglecting of socio-demographic aspect in decision making. Our conclusion is important for waste management planning
as well, because it supports application of the subsidiarity principle in the practice. Even though objectives of the waste
management policy are given at national level, many decisions are made at the local level.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This paper was supported by the project “Smart City – Smart Region – Smart Community”
(CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17_048/0007435) financed by Operational Programme Research, Development and Education of the
Czech Ministry of Education, Youth and Sport, supported by EU funds.
REFERENCES
Abbott, A.; Nandeibam, S.; O'Shea, L. 2011. Explaining the variation in household recycling rates across the UK. Ecological Economics, 2011, vol. 70,
issue 11, s. 2214-2223. ISSN 0921-8009. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.06.028.
Bach, H. et al. 2004. Combining socio-demographic and logistic factors to explain the generation and collection of waste paper. Resource, Conservation
and Recycling. 2004, vol. 41, issue 1, s. 65-73. ISSN 0921-3449. DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2003.08.004.
Beigl, P., et al. 2004. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in major European cities. In: IEMSs 2004 International Congress: Complexity and
Integrated Resources Management, Osnabrück, Germany. 2004.
Beigl, P.; Lebersorger, S.; Salhofer, S. 2008. Modelling municipal solid waste generation: A review. Waste management. 2008, vol. 28, issue 1, s. 200-214.
ISSN 0956-053X. DOI: 10.1016/j.wasman.2006.12.011.
Czech Statistical Office. 2013. Databáze výsledků sčítání lidu, domů a bytů 2011: průřezové: sčítání lidu, domů a bytů 2011 k 26.3.2011 (English: Database
of Results of Population and Housing Census 2011: cross-sectional: Population and Housing Census 2011 on the 26th March 2011). Praha. ISBN 978-
80-250-2357-0.
D’Elia, J. L. I. 2008. Determinants of Household Waste Recycling in Northern Ireland. Economic Research Institute of Northern Ireland. 2008. Dostupné z
www: http://eservices.afbini.gov.uk/erini/pdf/ERINIMon23.pdf.
Dennison, G. J.; Dodd, V. A.; Whelan, B. 1996. A socio-economic based survey of household waste characteristics in the city of Dublin, Ireland. II. Waste
quantities. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 1996, vol. 17, issue 3, s. 245-257. ISSN 0921-3449. DOI: 10.1016/0921-3449(96)01155-X.
EUROSTAT. 2017. Generation of municipal waste per capita. Dostupný z www:
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=cei_pc031&plugin=1 [cit. 2018-07-04].
Gellynck, X.; Jacobsen, R.; Verhelst, P. 2011. Identifying the key factors in increasing recycling and reducing residual household waste: A case study of the
Flemish region of Belgium. Journal of Environmental Management. 2011, vol. 92, issue 10, s. 2683-2690. ISSN 0301-4797. DOI:
10.1016/j.jenvman.2011.06.006.
Hage, O.; Söderholm, P. 2008. An econometric analysis of regional differences in household waste collection: the case of plastic packaging waste in
Sweden. Waste management. 2008, vol. 28, issue 10, s. 1720-1731. ISSN 0956-053X. DOI: 10.1016/j.wasman.2007.08.022.
Hockett, D.; Lober, D. J.; Pilgrim, K. 1995. Determinants of per capita municipal solid waste generation in the Southeastern United States. Journal of
Environmental Management. 1995, vol. 45, issue 3, s. 205-217. ISSN 0301-4797. DOI: 10.1006/jema.1995.0069.
Ismaila, A.B., et al. 2015. Modelling Municipal Solid Waste Generation Using Geographically Weighted Regression: A Case Study of Nigeria.
International Research Journal of Environment Science. 2015, vol. 4 (8), s. 98-108. ISSN 2319-1414.
Jenkins, R. R., et al. 2003. The determinants of household recycling: a material-specific analysis of recycling program features and unit pricing. Journal of
environmental economics and management. 2003, vol. 45, issue 2, s. 294-318. ISSN 0095-0696. DOI: 10.1016/S0095-0696(02)00054-2.
Johnstone, N.; Labonne, J. 2004. Generation of household solid waste in OECD countries: an empirical analysis using macroeconomic data. Land
Economics. 2004, vol. 80, issue 4, s. 529-538. ISSN 0023-7639.
Keser, S.; Duzgun, S.; Aksoy, A. 2012. Application of spatial and non-spatial data analysis in determination of the factors that impact municipal solid waste
generation rates in Turkey. Waste management. 2012, vol. 32, issue 3, s. 359-371. ISSN 0956-053X. DOI: 10.1016/j.wasman.2011.10.017.
Khan, D.; Kumar, A.; Sammader, S. R. 2016. Impact of socioeconomic status on municipal solid waste generation rate. Waste Management. 2016, 49, s. 15-
25. ISSN 0956-053x. DOI: 10.1016/j.wasman.2016.01.019.
Kipperberg, G. 2007. A comparison of household recycling behaviors in Norway and the United States. Environmental and Resource Economics. 2007, vol.
36, issue 2, s. 215-235. ISSN 1573-1502. DOI: 10.1007/s10640-006-9019-x.
Lebersorger, S.; Beigl, P. 2011. Municipal solid waste generation in municipalities: Quantifying impacts of household structure, commercial waste and
domestic fuel. Waste management. 2011, vol. 31, 9-10, s. 1907-1915. ISSN 0956-053X. DOI: 10.1016/j.wasman.2011.05.016.
Martin, M.; Williams, I. D.; Clark, M. 2006. Social, cultural and structural influences on household waste recycling: A case study. Resources, conservation
and recycling. 2006, vol. 48, issue 4, s. 357-395. ISSN 0921-3449. DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2005.09.005.
Mazzanti, M.; Zoboli, R. 2009. Municipal waste Kuznets curves: evidence on socio-economic drivers and policy effectiveness from the EU. Environmental
and Resource Economics. 2009, vol. 44, issue 2, s. 203-230. ISSN 1573-1502. DOI: 10.1007/s10640-009-9280-x. ISSN 1573-1502.
Miller, I.; Lauzon, A.; Wattle, B.; Ritter, M.; Hood, J. 2009. Determinants of Municipal Solid Waste Generation and Recycling in Western New York
Communities. The Journal of Solid Waste Technology and Management. 2009-11-1, vol. 35, issue 4, s. 209-236. ISSN 1088-1697. DOI:
10.5276/JSWTM.2009.209.

icshge.org
Rybová, K.; Burcin, B.; Slavík, J. 2018. Spatial and non-spatial analysis of socio-demographic aspects influencing municipal solid waste generation in the
Czech Republic. Detritus, vol. 1, s. 3-7. DOI: 10.26403/detritus/2018.2.
Schultz, P.; Oskamp, S.; Mainieri, T. 1995. Who recycles and when? A review of personal and situational factors. Journal of environmental psychology.
1995, vol. 15, issue 2, s. 105-121. ISSN 0272-4944. DOI: 10.1016/0272-4944(95)90019-5.
Sidique, S. F.; Joshi, S. V.; Lupi, F. 2010. Factors influencing the rate of recycling: An analysis of Minnesota counties. Resources, Conservation and
Recycling. 2010, vol. 54, issue 4, s. 242-249. ISSN 0921-3449. DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2009.08.006.
SMOCR (Union of Towns and Municipalities of the Czech Republic). (2011). Aktualizace strategie rozvoje nakládání s odpady v obcích a městech ČR.
Praha: Svaz měst a obcí České republiky. Available on http: http://www.smocr.cz/cz/publikace/aktualizovana-strategie-rozvoje-nakladani-s-odpady-
v-obcich-a-mestech-cr.asp
SPSS. 2017. SPSS Statistics. IBM Knowledge Centre.
https://www.ibm.com/support/knowledgecenter/SSLVMB_20.0.0/com.ibm.spss.statistics.help/linear_regression_methods.htm
Starr, J.; Nicolson, C. 2015. Patterns in trash: Factors driving municipal recycling in Massachusetts. Resources, Conservation and Recycling. 2015, 99, str.
7-18. ISSN 0921-3449. DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2015.03.009.
Sterner, T.; Bartelings, H. 1999. Household waste management in a Swedish municipality: determinants of waste disposal, recycling and composting.
Environmental and resource economics. 1999, vol. 13, issue 4, s. 473-491. ISSN 1573-1502. DOI: 10.1023/A:1008214417099.
Šauer, P.; Pařízková, L.; Hadrabová, A. 2008. Charging systems for municipal solid waste: Experience from the Czech Republic. Waste Management. 2008,
vol. 28, issue 12, s. 2772-2777. ISSN 0956-053X. DOI: 10.1016/j.wasman.2008.03.030.
Terry, N. 2002. The determinants of municipal recycling: a time series approach. Southwestern Economic Review. 2002, vol. 29, issue 1, s. 53-62. ISSN
1941-7683.
Zhang, G. 2015. Spatial characteristics of municipal solid waste generation and its influential factors on city scale: a case study of Xiamen, China. Journal
of Material Cycles and Waste Management. 2015, vol. 17, issue 2, s. 399–409. ISSN 1611-8227. DOI 10.1007/s10163-014-0257-7.

icshge.org
Chapter 5.

icshge.org
Forest Biodiversity, Ecological Attitudes, and Spiritual Praxis: The

Future of Buddhist Temples as Forest Management Actors in Japan
Hutchins, A.G.
Asian Studies and Religious Studies, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA
Abstract—Forest management has a long-standing history in Japan, within which religious institutions occupy a contentious
role. Through the lens of political ecology, this paper analyzes the relationship of Buddhist temples and their forest holdings
as a manifestation of Buddhist praxis, practical action, and attitudes towards forest ecologies. Attention is first placed on how
Japan’s political economy has defined the role of religious institutions in forest management from the Meiji Restoration
forward. This historical analysis is utilized alongside ethnographic fieldwork conducted at temples along the Shikoku
pilgrimage route in order to understand how Buddhist actors in particular fit into Japan’s forest management geography in the
current era of rural depopulation, industrial shifts, and other changes characterizing its developed economy. Interviews with
Buddhist clergy were conducted in addition to paper surveys for both quantitative and qualitative feedback on ecological
attitudes towards forest management. This variety of approaches is used to discern the extent to which spiritual and religious
practices governing forest management within Buddhist temples translate into actual efforts to protect the biodiversity and
overall health of their forest holdings. In particular, this paper queries current limitations to forest management in the present
and future, comparing existing forest management potential between Buddhist and Shinto sites and existing management
agreements with government entities. I argue that ecologically-minded forest management at Buddhist sites in Japan remains
in its infancy, in large part due to substantial variety of landscapes surrounding temples and “gaps of sanctity” between
particular trees and larger forest holdings. At the same time, some forest management potential may exist where the “spiritual
output” of forests is perceived as an ecological service, and where the future economic output of woodland is also valued.
Does the intensively cultivated European landscape need trees or

agroforestry?
Krčmářová, J.
Institute of Ethnology, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
Abstract—Drought and soil erosion are the priority problems of the Czech agriculture and many other European countries.
The current losses and their expected exacerbation with climate changes put pressure on the search for possible remedies. The
attention is turned to the historically proven but also currently well researched tree permacultures and agroforestry.
Interspersing trees into the landscape of monocultures has proven to mitigate some of the negative effects brought by industrial
agriculture and lack of water and loss of soil in particular. The paper will analyse the diverse conceptualisations of how and
why the non-forestal tree patches might and should be conserved or reintroduced into the landscape. Among the discussed
approaches will be those focusing on the conservation and restoration of standing trees in intensively used landscapes for their
effects on biological diversity and farmland ecosystem health, those concentrating on the non-productive functions of
agriculture like bio-cultural heritage protection and leisure-time related values and also those emphasizing primarily the
economic productivity of non-forest permacultures. The possible solutions and dangers of each of the mentioned ideological
trajectories as well as their appropriations by various interest groups will be discussed. A Czech case study representing a
possible merger will be presented, where the policy regarding the incorporation of trees in intensively farmed landscapes is
built in an interdisciplinary and participative (bottom-up) manner.
Selected aspects of the impact of dairy plants on the environment of

Poland
Tucki, K.,1,* Botwińska, K.,1 Bączyk, A.,2 and Wielewska, I.3
1
Department of Production Organization and Engineering, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Nowoursynowska str. 164,
02-787 Warsaw, Poland; * karol_tucki@sggw.pl
2
Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Nowoursynowska str. 159, 02-776 Warsaw,
Poland
3
University of Science and Technology in Bydgoszcz, Department of Economics and Advising in Agribusiness, Ks. A.
Kordeckiego str. 20, 85-225 Bydgoszcz, Poland
Abstract—Milk and dairy products are considered a basic element of the diet in most countries around the world. The
production of this resource is dependent on two basic factors: cow population and milk yield. The average milk yield of cattle
in Poland increased to 5600 liters / pcs. In 2017 with the number of dairy cows at 2140 thousand of piece, which placed Poland
in the 5th place in milk production in the EU-28. In the available literature, the categorization of industries was encountered
due to their impact on the natural environment, the dairy industry is defined as "having a major impact on the natural

icshge.org
environment". Moreover, it is believed that products using the most natural resources and with the potentially greatest
environmental impact, besides beef, are dairy products. This is due to the use of large amounts of water for production
processes and the resulting wastewater from these processes. Liquid waste has a variable pH, a high content of total suspension
and organic compounds like proteins or fats, as well as high biochemical and chemical oxygen demand. The dairy industry
also includes pollutants like gases and dust, which are emitted from the boiler room. Combustion of fossil fuels in boiler houses
also generates a large amount of slags and ashes. In the era of increased demand for environmental protection, the impact of
the dairy industry on the Polish ecosystem was analyzed. The analysis includes water consumption, energy consumption,
energy consumption of processes, heat consumption and waste production (including wastewater, packaging waste, emission
of harmful substances into the air). The review will enable the identification of problem areas, factors generating pollution in
this area and provides a basis for research in the field of minimizing the negative impact of the dairy industry on the
environment in Poland.
Systemic and SMART approach as an instrument

for dealing with brownfields
Bergamini, K.
Instituto de Estudios Urbanos y Territoriales, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Providencia, 7500000
Chile
Abstract— The increase of population in Easter Island or Rapa Nui as a result of migration and tourist activity, has generated
the concern of their community, derived from the uncertainty of the problems that the above may cause. This concern has
guided a socio-political process, which triggered the law that seeks to regulate access and permanence in the territory, in order
to cushion the pressure on the different environmental, social and infrastructure components, which inherently affect the quality
of local life. However, this law for its application requires technical foundations that allow restrictions to be applied, based on
knowledge about the demographic capacity of the territory. To this end, the Sub-secretariat for Regional and Administrative
Development (SUBDERE) signed a cooperation and research agreement with the "Urban Plans and Projects" of the Pontifical
Catholic University of Chile with the aim of building a technical instrument capable of performing said calculation, which
corresponds to a dynamic simulation model composed of different territorial variables sensitive to demographic growth and
which, in turn, are capable of being projected over time, in order to provide timely information for decision making within the
framework of the law. The investigation relates the sociopolitical context, the methodology and the main results of this
instrument that seeks to reveal or give an account of those factors that affect the possibilities of sustainability in the medium
and long term in the insular territory, which takes special relevance considering such aspects as its ecological fragility, limited
resources, isolation from markets, among others, vulnerabilities that can be intensified by demographic pressure.
Keywords—Easter Island, Rapa Nui, carrying capacity, dynamic model
Effect of selenium on uptake and translocation of arsenic in rice seedlings

(Oryza sativa L.)
Camara, A.Y.,1,2,* Wan, Y.,1 Yu, Y.,1 Qi, W.,1 and Li, H.1
1
Beijing Key Laboratory of Farmland Soil Pollution Prevention and Remediation, Key Laboratory of Plant-Soil Interactions
of the Ministry of Education, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
2
Department of Water, Forest and Environment, Higher Institute of Agronomy and Veterinary of Faranah, 300 B.P. 131,
Republic of Guinea
* aycamara78@gmail.com
Abstract— In our paper, we will reflect upon the ongoing European Union security issues dealing with missions all over the
world. As a matter of fact, Africa has been carved out as the main effort of military campaigns conducted by the European
Union and its armed forces. The European Union Military Staff is currently working on its flagship project “military mobility”
(Mogherini 2017, in EEAS 2018) with its aim to transport troop across Europe and beyond – without mentioning a specific
area of operations. We will show how the discourse about security and stability has transformed in the shed light of the so-
called “refugee-crisis” and the implementations on military level (like the ongoing mission in the Mediterranean Sea
“SOPHIA”) in order to re-militarize and re-colonialize northern Africa. For this purpose, Securitization theory will be the solid
basis on which we examine the most present documents of the Military staff and the resolutions that had followed, always with
the main effort on northern Africa. As next step, we present the outcomes on a practical level (the deployment of troops) and
the short- as well as long-term effects that these military campaigns had on the area of northern Africa. By this we present the
exiguousness of the situation and the effects on the real world.

icshge.org
The Importance of Fair Trade and Organic Labels in Sustainable

Fashion Consumption
Arslan, L.
Institut für Marketing, Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Holstenhofweg 85, D-22043 Hamburg, Germany;
lamia.arslan@hsu-hh.de
Abstract—Sustainable consumption and development have gained importance since the 1970s. Focus in the sustainable debate
was mainly on energy, mobile industry and food industry. But since the 1980s the fashion industry is one of the sectors which
have been associated with the exploitation of natural resources and human. The fast change from a conventional fashion
industry with three to four collections per year to a fast fashion and mass consumption industry with weekly low-cost clothing
collections is largely characterized by negative impact on the (female) textile factory workers and environment. Fast fashion
as a business model of the fashion industry is still one of the fast growing sectors. At the same time there is an increasing
interest among consumers to purchase sustainable and fair produced fashion. As a majority of studies identified positives
consumers´ attitudes towards sustainability, a gap has been observed between these attitudes and actual consumption behaviour
(attitude-behaviour gap). Despite that, sustainable and ethical fashion consumption remains a niche. Therefore, within current
research on sustainable fashion and the importance of organic/fair trade labels, significant questions remain unanswered. The
purpose of this paper is to investigate the importance of fair trade and organic labels on sustainable fashion by the example of
a basic unisex T-shirt. The aim is to examine which attributes (e.g. quality, price, fair trade label, organic label) (fashion)
consumers prefer and to analyse their willingness to pay. Methodically the research is based on a choice-based analysis.
Conjoint analysis methodologies are realistic decisions models. They diminish socially desirable responses by evaluating
products as a whole. First study results reveal that consumers value the fair trade label most, followed by price and organic
label and quality. It seems that consumers, who are interested in sustainable fashion, care about sustainable labeled/certified
fashion but coincidently are not willing to pay more. This assumption is evidenced by the fact, that the lowest price level was
chosen the most.
Keywords—fair trade label, organic label, sustainable fashion consumption, conjoint analysis
Sustainability of Critical Infrastructures: Food Security in Germany

Schuchardt, A.,* Hartmann, J., Peperhove, R., and Gerhold, L.
Freie Universität Berlin, Germany; agnetha.schuchardt@fu-berlin.de
Abstract—Failures of critical infrastructures can have significant negative consequences for the affected population. This is
especially true for the food sector that is strongly interlinked and dynamic and therefore susceptible to vulnerabilities in other
sectors. It includes agricultural production systems, farms and ranches, production in industrial settings, transportation and
distribution of goods, and wholesaling or retailing the products to the consumer. The paper focuses on the scenario of a blackout
that could lead to several cities being without food supply. Securing the food supply is an essential part of a sustainable
development of critical infrastructure. In order to perform respective sustainability measures, a common strategy would be
necessary. Securing the food supply in emergencies is considered a task of the state. The problem with that is that, in the
German context, the key players are private enterprises and private households. Both are not aware of their responsibility and
will not take any preventive measures prior to an emergency. The state is only a marginal player within this supply chain. It
would be very useful to integrate the private sector into emergency concepts since it has the capacities, knowledge and
experience to provide the population with food on a regular basis. In Germany, however, this is not the case. The different
stakeholders do not communicate with each other, not even when it comes to disaster management. The paper will give a
detailed analysis of this interconnectedness and especially its vulnerabilities. Preventive measures for crisis are extremely
seldom because they do not serve economic purposes and the private sector is therefore not interested in them, so there is no
common strategy. This issue will be addressed in an expert workshop that will take place in summer 2018. The main results
from this workshop will include recommendations and incentives on how to include the private sector into sustainability
management (e. g. tax reductions). Stakeholders from different steps of the food supply chain as well as officials will discuss
whether and how it is possible to execute sustainability measures for the food sector together. The results from this participative
process will be validated in an online survey. The proposed paper will present results from the workshop and contrast them
with the evaluation of the online survey.
Keywords—critical infrastructure, disaster management, emergency food storage, food security, private economy, resilience
Sludge management quality

Gebreeyessus, G.D.
Department of Urban Environmental Management, Kotebe Metropolitan University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia;
getachewdagn@yahoo.com

icshge.org
Abstract—Sludge management takes great share of the cost spent in the wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) where sludge
anaerobic digestion (AD) is one such major unit. Sludge AD is practiced mainly because of its environmental and energy
advantages. Sludge quality after AD in terms of dewaterability, reject water characteristics as well as foaming phenomena is
a concern either economically or environmentally. In that respect this thesis compared the difference in sludge quality between
mesophilic and thermophilic waste activated sludge (WAS) after AD using completely stirred tank reactors (CSTRs).
Regarding the results for the mesophilic sludge, the mean CST (seconds), extent of dewaterability (% water removed),
ammonia nitrogen (Nammon in mg/l) and the soluble COD (CODsol in mg/l) are 852±180, 62.9±1.7, 1484±153.5, and
2315.7±407.6 respectively. Meanwhile the foaming potential (FP), foam stability (IS) and the specific biochemical methane
yield in ml-CH4/g-VSS are 4.4±1.7, 0.7±0.12 and 193 respectively. Whereas for the thermophilic sludge, the mean CST, extent
of dewaterability, Nammon and CODsol are 1109±211, 65±1.8, 1581±120.5, and 4740.6±1122.8 respectively. Meanwhile the
FP, IS and specific biochemical methane yield are 8.9±1.6, 0.4±0.09 and 258.5 respectively. Based on our study with a
maximum organic loading rate (OLR) achieved at 2.82 g-VS/l/d, the CST (p-value≈0), Nammon (p-value≈0.01) and CODsol
concentration (p-value≈0) as well as the FP (p-value≈0) are significantly better as quality for the mesophilic sludge.
Keywords—sludge, foaming, dewaterability, biogas, ammonia
Bringing Science to the Real World: The Forest Act in São Paulo State,
Brazil
Brites, A.D.
Projeto Temático Código Florestal SP, Fapesp, Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz, University of São Paulo,
Brazil
Abstract—The Brazilian Forest Act (FA) has a paramount importance for forest conservation since it is the main law for
protecting vegetation inside private lands, where a large amount of deforestation takes place in Brazil. However, after 6 years
of its approval, doubts about some of its main mechanisms still remain. An emblematic case is São Paulo State where the law
that stablish the State FA was taken as unconstitutional and suspended by a judicial action. Although the suspension creates
legal insecurities for landowners, it also allowed the beginning of a dialogue between distinct stakeholders and academy, in
the pursue of scientific information to support decision-making in this context. From this dialogue, we identified that the major
focus of dispute in the State is the legalization of Legal Reserves deficits (LRD). We construct 4 different scenarios of LRD
that spatialized the State potential for restauration initiatives. Through this participatory process, that can be replicated in other
countries, it is possible to bring science closer to public policies ensuring laws that actually promote the win-win scenario of
forest conservation and socioeconomic development.
Using Photosynthetic Microbial Desalination Cells to simultaneously pre-

treat COD and high salt concentrations in landfill leachate
Ewusi-Mensah, D.
Hohai University, Gulou, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province 210098, China; ewusimensah.david@gmail.com
Abstract—Wastewater (industrial & leachate) contains a high amount of organic matter which makes it a potential energy
storage that actually represents almost 10-fold the energy (chemical) invested in wastewater treatment plants worldwide.
Taking into accounts the huge energy demand and operation costs in landfill leachate treatment, the concept of using
wastewater to produce electricity is a very sustainable idea. For the purpose of this study, an improved Photosynthetic
Microbial Desalination Cell (PMDC) was used reduce high COD and salt concentrations in real landfill leachate and
simultaneously generate electricity. The study was initiated with a performance-study where operating factors were analysed
to determine their significant influence on performance, whiles the results were used to improve PMDC to pre-treat leachate.
PMDC proved to be capable of pre-treat 1L of leachate of 95% COD removal, 50-75% desalination and generate 0.7V
electricity simultaneously. In spite the few challenges, biofouling, just as other membrane technologies, PMDC has
demonstrated to be a sustainable green technology capable of pre-treating wastewater to improve the efficiency of conventional
biological treatment processes which are not efficient due to high pollutant concentration. And produce bioenergy as well.
Promoting Changes in Cropping Pattern and Crop Diversification for

Sustainable Agricultural Growth in West Bengal, India
Pani, A.,* and Mishra, P.
Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, 721302, West
Bengal, India; * amartya.geo@gmail.com

icshge.org
Abstract—While the agrarian nature of the rural economy in India is well recognized, inadequate infrastructure, especially
limited irrigation facilities and inadequate access to markets coupled with policy bias and institutional constraints seem to have
resulted in low productivity and slowed growth of the sector. In addition, input intensive farming practices over the years have
resulted in loss of bio-diversity, depletion of groundwater level and degradation of soil quality causing severe threats to
sustainable growth of Indian agriculture. Furthermore, frequent occurrences of droughts and untimely and heavy rains and
floods have often affected the livelihoods of rural people, particularly those living in the dry zones with scanty irrigation
facilities. The situation appears to more critical in the Indian state of West Bengal that has a large farm area under rain-fed
practices. Given that a considerable proportion of rural households are marginal farmers and hence have limited capacity to
adapt to the changes in climatic conditions, developing irrigation and other infrastructure and removal of policy and institution
related constraints are very important to promote sustainable and inclusive growth of the sector. It is expected that availability
of necessary infrastructure and greater access to markets coupled with policy and institutional supports can lead to crop
diversification and changes in cropping patterns that are considered as crucial adaptation strategies under the rapidly changing
climatic conditions. In this perspective, the present paper is an attempt to understand how the expansion of irrigation and other
infrastructure facilities have led to changes in cropping pattern and crop diversification in the state and the role of markets,
policies and institutions in this regard. This is very important for promoting sustainable growth of agriculture in the state that
has five major cropping clusters backed by possibly the most successful three-tier panchayati institutions in the country to
facilitate optimum utilization of local resources and expertise. Both secondary and primary data are used for addressing the
research objective and standard statistical tools and econometric techniques are applied for data analysis.
Keywords—climate change, rainfed agriculture, sustainable agricultural growth, irrigation, agro-climatic conditions, cropping
pattern, crop diversification, West Bengal
Mapping the politics of Urban Night Landscape: Spatialization of women

and their mobility in Delhi
Agarwal, A.
Ambedkar University Delhi, Delhi, 110009, India; avniagarwal13@gmail.com
Abstract—Understanding the urban landscape is a prerequisite for engaging with the prevailing issues which tends to control
women’s access to space. One such issue is of temporality which further controls women’s mobility. The urban night landscape
are the spaces of the day which appears to be reproduced at night in juxtaposition to the spaces of the day such that the
functionality, sociality and politics of the space completely changes. Thus, the paper attempts to map the night spatially and
temporally through a gendered lens to understand the politics of presence and absence of women in the urban night landscape.
Delving in to understand the spatialization of women in the night landscape, the paper first tries to understand the nature of
spaces that are re-produced in the urban night landscape as occupied by women occupants and also the manner in which places
are being made by them. It then tries to bring forth what and how the (re)construction of counter spaces and alternative spaces
cater to women’s access in urban night. Further it attempts to unravel the idea of mobility in the night spaces as fabricated by
women. The qualitative study was contextualised in the urban night landscape of Delhi, India while drawing from the everyday
experiences of the women accessing and wishing to access the night space for leisure and work through an in-depth engagement
with them. The study undertaken thus helps in understanding the reproduction of urban night landscape as largely masculine
and where women are seen making a ‘purposive movement’. It also throws light on how the process of gendering as well as
the production of gendered spaces operates in the night spaces through the practices of pleasure and leisure.
Human-Environment Relationships in Modern and Postmodern

Geography
Kabir, A.
University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Oyo State 23402, Nigeria; azeezkabir@hotmail.com
Abstract—We analyse the human-environment relationships in geographical research from the end of the 19th to the beginning
of the 21st century. We highlight paradigms, which affected our way of thinking about man-environment relations. Discussing
scientific approaches and paradigms in geography the leading scientists who had influential thoughts and helped the shaping
of a paradigm will also be mentioned. The research on human-environment relations has appeared in geography from time to
time, but the connecting paradigms had also different stories through time and space. Undoubtedly, the nowadays reviving
determinism had the greatest influence, but possibilism has also had a significant impact on our discipline. Research on human-
environment relationships reappeared in a new form through the discourse on global climate change. Postmodern,
poststructuralist, and postcolonial approaches changed radically the basis of human-environment research. In this paper, we
argue that geography needs to renew not only its philosophical basis and theoretical context, but the connections between the
two sub disciplines of geography (i.e. between physical and human geography) must be refreshed too. Climate change
discourse draws the attention again to the relationship between humans and nature. The widely available and diversified
information about this issue has had a significant impact on public opinion and political decision making, therefore, the

icshge.org
knowledge of the theoretical background of these scientific approaches is very important. Research on human-environment
relationships has been present in geography from the very beginning. Definitely, it had great importance in the process of
becoming an academic discipline in the 19th century, and it contributed to the duality of geography and brought about the
development of anthropogeography (i.e. human geography). In this paper, we analyse the changing contexts of geography
from the end of the highlight paradigms, which ruled our way of thinking about human-environment relations. Undoubtedly,
the nowadays reviving determinism has had the greatest influence, but possibilism also had a significant impact on our
discipline. Beside theoretical considerations, the actual reason for the present paper is a joint physical and human geographical
effort. Our research group works on the exploration of some aspects of the man environment relationships within selected
spatial units. The relief is different from those of other terrains. Thus, we studied whether and how these physical settings (e.g.
the lack of water, natural monuments, poor soils, etc.) influence social features like settlement patterns, population changes,
transport network etc. Our approach is modern as we used GIS methodology but the studied problems have a long-standing
history in geographical thoughts.
Fostering Human Centered Design (HCD) approach for technology

development and commercialization for bottom of the pyramid (BOP)
clients
Deepak, K.,* and Conor, R.F.
iDE (International Development Enterprises), Dhaka, Bangladesh; dkhadka@ideglobal.org
Abstract—As Bangladesh positions itself in meeting the Middle Income Country (MIC) status in 2021, bolstered by its rapid
economic progress over the last one and half decade, it faces challenges in balancing the needs of its fast growing industrial
and service sectors, whilst also ensuring that it meets its obligations towards the poor and extreme poor population in a
sustainable manner. One of the key areas of such sustainable growth for the poor remains dominant within the agriculture
sector, which has itself gone through transformational phases and is poised to take advantage of rapid commercialization not
only to increase land and labor productivity, but also to mitigate issues of labor shortages owning to large scale out-migration
of youths. Broadly, the paper delves into the most recent development programs implemented in Bangladesh by iDE
(International Development Enterprises, www.ideglobal.org), an US based NGO working in the country for the last 35 years
utilizing a market based approach to tackling poverty, and its partners. The findings of these programs provide evidence based
lessons on utilizing human centered design approaches to conceptualizing, developing and commercializing agriculture
technologies that understand the inherent requirements of low income clients, co-develop targeted technologies and facilitate
a market eco-system that can not only perpetuate the scaling of such technologies sustainably, and through commercial market
incentives, but also a system that is responsive to future needs of the target group in a fragile environment where agriculture
technologies need to be adaptive and climate smart. Specifically, the paper will focus on USAID funded Cereal Systems
Initiative for South Asia– Mechanization and Irrigation, (CSISA – MI) project, which was implemented in the Southern Coastal
belts of Bangladesh since June 2013 promoting three distinct technologies – axial flow pump (for irrigation), power tiller
operated seeder and wheat/ rice reaper and explore the project’s activities and its impact in working with the private and public
sector stakeholders.
Keywords—Bangladesh, human centered design, agriculture, technology
Household Cooking Fuel Use in Rural Sikkim: Its Determinants, Issues

and Challenges
Subba, D.
Centre for the Study of Regional Development (CSRD), Jawaharlal Nehru University, India; depeshsubba11@gmail.com
Abstract—Sikkim is a small landlocked state of India located in the Eastern Himalaya. It is characteristics by rich biodiversity
and pristine environment; and has occupied important role in providing environmental services. It has total population size of
610,577 where 74. 85 percent resides in rural area while 25.15 percent in urban area. Majority of population are concentrates
in rural areas and directly depends on environment for many livelihood services. Among them, dependence on firewood as a
source of household cooking fuel is one; which is high in rural Sikkim. Overall, 52.5 percent of population depends on firewood
for household cooking fuel where rural areas constitute 70.8 percent (Census of India, 2011). Dependence on firewood as
cooking fuel has many socio-environmental implications. Considering the importance of mountain area in times of climate
change, this paper tries to examine the determinants of various cooking fuel use and the intervening factors associated with
fuel switching from unclean to clean cooking energy in rural Sikkim. It tries to comprehend the multiple household cooking
fuel use in relation with environmental/mountain sustainability, livelihood incorporating livestock rearing, agriculture
practices, food habit and cultural/traditional practices considering socio-economic and demographic aspects across
geographical entity. Further, this paper analyzes the supply and the demand side of various government policies/schemes

icshge.org
regarding household cooking fuels at grass root level. Both quantitative and qualitative methods have applied in research based
on primary survey of 600 households (sample size) in selected villages of Sikkim.
Keywords—Sikkim, mountain, sustainability, environment, livelihood, firewood
New Silk Road: Ukraine

Pavlik, D.A.
Kiev National University, Akademika Glushkova, Kiev, Ukraine; dimasuranon@gmail.com
Abstract—Since the year 2013 New Silk Road idea, without exaggeration, become an idea fix for all the Geographical Society
from China to Europe. Old and new logistic projects became an essential part of the new political, media, and academic agenda.
Those projects are similar in many countries. A similar fate is not passed by Ukraine - because it can take several variants of
the way, including rapid transit corridor through Kazakhstan and Russia (but its implementation is unlikely today) and Trans
Caspian or Caspian-Black Sea route. However, the last one is questionable: how and under what conditions can it be a
profitable and competitive route with two ferries and several customs borders? We have tried to handle this question. Our basic
assumption is that New Silk Road (like its historical predecessor) is not transit corridor, but a "commercial chain" of specific
and particular trade interests and relations. Trade in the following lines is very intense: from Ukraine through Black Sea,
Caucasus and Caspian Sea to Central Asia; from Ukraine through Black Sea and Caucasus to Iran and to Iran too, but through
Turkey. All mentioned above routes have strategic importance for the main actors in the area, namely Ukraine, the Caucasus
and Asia Minor, Central Asia, and Iran. Between them are differentiated sales and a strategic direction for almost all of them.
Of course, the railroad has a very low competitiveness compared to sea transport, especially in crude transportation but the
well-developed infrastructure like paths can be very profitable, and a large proportion of goods are those that require special
conditions of transport and their transport by rail is optimal. The main value of the chain for Ukraine lies in the fact that it is a
strategic and above all it concerns the field of macroeconomic security. Ukrainian exports consist of two main categories -
steel and agriculture. First is an issue of coking coal, which supplies many problems and causes considerable public interest.
While its supply from Kazakhstan could partially replace the need for this raw material; products of the second category in
recent years require Asian markets as opposed to the European and transportation of them, for example, is safer by Caspian-
Black Sea route, then by marine way through Bay of Aden with Somalia pirates. Moreover, this is not the only issue that shows
strategic importance of this route. An initiative of the Ministry of Infrastructure (i.e., to finish Iranian iron road Astara-Resht)
and public figures (such as Micheil Saakashvili, former Georgian president and ex-governor of the Odessa region) confirmed
this. Also, consider this way strategic importance for such countries as Georgia (which was implemented a joint project) and
Azerbaijan, with whom Ukraine formed GUAM group. So we can say that the route is generally not for China and the EU, but
for countries between that are interested in a safe, mutually beneficial trade and in deepening regional ties.
Energy Poverty Among Rural Households in Nigeria: What Can Be

Done?
Nduka, E.,* Grosskopf, B., and Chakravarty, S.
Department of Economics, University of Exeter, UK; en275@exeter.ac.uk
Abstract—The study investigates what can be done to alleviate energy poverty among rural households in Nigeria. A
referendum style contingent valuation was used to elicit households’ preference and willingness to pay for “pico photovoltaic
systems” (solar lanterns) and improved cook stoves (eco-friendly cook stoves) programs respectively. A face-to-face elicitation
method was used to elicit responses from 218 households in Ebonyi State where energy poverty is predominant. The
determinants of WTP, energy situation of the households and their renewable energy knowledge were explored. A cost benefit
analysis was conducted to compare the mean WTP amount with cost of the goods. Both parametric and non-parametric models
were employed. The results suggest that rural households’ mean WTP for solar lantern and improved cook stoves are ₦1038.70
(€2.51) and ₦778.60 (€1.88) respectively. This will to paid monthly for the next three years through a direct payment method.
Furthermore, income, age, and living space are determinants of WTP for solar lantern, while age and number of children are
determinants of WTP for improved cook stoves. Thus, households with higher income, male as head, younger than forty,
higher number of children and living in bigger apartments are likely willing to pay higher for the goods. Sixty-nine per cent
(69%) of the respondents do not have access to electricity, while those that are connected have not seen electricity for years.
About 90% and 94% depend on kerosene lantern and three-stone cook stove for lighting and cooking respectively. Seventy-
five per cent (75%) have poor knowledge about renewable energy. Seventy-four per cent (74%) of the respondents do not trust
the government to manage the program. This gives insight, for the first time, into public’s attitude toward government managed
rural electrification programs in Nigeria. Going forward, this study may influence future energy programs in Nigeria.
Keywords—energy poverty, renewable energy, contingent valuation, spike model, cost-benefit analysis, climate change

icshge.org
Fundamentals Physics Governing Heat Transfer in Improve Biomass

Stove
Siwe, E.N.,* and Njomo, D.
Environmental, Energy and Technology Laboratory, University of Yaoundé I, Yaoundé, Cameroon; * elienzadi@gmail.com
Abstract—Today, over 2 billion people cook badly on slow, inefficient wood stove that waste wood, cause health problems
and destroy our forests. It was reported by the world health organization, moreover, that indoor pollution caused by too much
smoke emission in the traditional burning wood and biomass stoves results in about 1.6 million deaths per year in developing
countries due to chronic respiratory diseases. Electricity and gas are preferred for cooking, when they can be obtained.
However, they are costly, contribute to global warming, and depend on having a suitable infrastructure often not available in
developing countries. Gasifying biomass was found to be a good alternative to provide households with low-cost but clean
source of energy for cooking. By limiting the amount of air used in burning woods, combustible gas that is rich in carbon
dioxide and hydrogen are produced which is almost similar to liquefied petroleum gas fuel in terms of physical characteristics.
Several studies revealed a biomass-stove that operates on gasification has low particles as well as CO2 emission. The aim of
this work is to use the principles of modern engineering heat transfer to design the wood gas-stove using local materials. In
the first part of the work we have established, use thermochemical equations the wood-gas components and composition after
the gasification process. The gasification efficiency is established to be more than 70 %. In the second part, we have established
the heat transfer efficiency, the convective and radiative heat transfer are established to be 52% and 7% respectively. The stove
efficiency established to be 37 %. So the wood gas-stove efficiency is more than the traditional stove efficiency which is less
than 10 %.
Keywords—modeling, gasification, biomass, stove, efficiency
A Review on Environmental Selenium Issues

Gebreeyessus, G.D.,* and Zewge, F.
Department of Urban Environmental Management, Kotebe Metropolitan University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia;
*
getachewdagn@yahoo.com
Abstract—Selenium (Se) is an essential toxic since it is a necessary metabolite and is also toxic to living things if it is consumed
beyond the desired limit. For instance, up to 40µg per day of dietary Se is essential for human health, however, consumption
of a little over 400µg per day could result in adverse physiological problems. In the environment, Se occurs in different species
among which selenite and selenite are its most toxic forms; 95% of Se toxicity. Selenium is ingested in to the human body
through food and water. When Se is deficient, its fortification is important for normal human physiology otherwise it has to
be minimized or removed from an environmental media. Though its quantification is significantly important to control per
limit. The detection and quantification of Se in environmental samples got advanced with time including the use of a Hydride
Generating Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy. Due to the excess occurrence of Se in different locations the removal techniques
from geogenic or anthropogenic sources include microbial metabolism, phytoremediation, sorption, membrane separation,
coagulation, ion exchange and catalytic reduction. Most of all, the microbial removal is applied in drinking water supply and
in Se recovery from wastewater sludge. Though current Se removal from sorption studies reported better efficiency,
phytoremediation appears attractive due to its field scale application advantage. However, the fate of Se following
phytoremediation is unaddressed.
Keywords—selenium, toxicity, occurrence, phytoremediation, sorption, environment
A Note on the Area of Paddy Field in Jakarta, Indonesia

Anggrahita, H.,1,* Guswandi,2 Purwanto, S.A.,3 and Susilowati, M.1
1
Department of Geography, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Indonesia, Kampus UI Depok,
Depok 16424, Indonesia
2
Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa, Jalan Raya Jakarta Km 4, Pakupatan, Serang,
Indonesia
3
Department of Anthropology, Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, University of Indonesia, Kampus UI Depok, Depok
16424, Indonesia
*
hayuning.anggrahita@gmail.com
Abstract—One of the most debated issues on rice, as the most consumed staple food for Indonesian population, is the area of
paddy field. There is the overestimation of the area at national level due to the contentious statistic provided officially by
Indonesian Government. The data collection has used the “eye estimation” method to measure the area since 1970s. It is
interesting to investigate the area using more scientific method to reduce, even to eliminate, the incorrectness. However, we
lower the studied region into provincial level, and chose Jakarta as the case study representing urban agriculture. We measure

icshge.org
the area of Jakarta’s paddy field in 2017 using remote sensing analysis with satellite imagery, then compare it with official
data, and analyze the difference between them. We find that there is a paradox in Jakarta. The area of paddy field is
underestimated. Moreover, the ratio of remote sensing data to official one is about 2.7 times, representing a huge gap. The
causes vary. The “eye estimation” has some important limitations such as the natural limit(s) of human vision and blocked
vision due to dense urban constructions such as building, house, and concrete fence. Those limitations are physical factor.
Moreover, the “eye estimation” is easy to be manipulated. Although both the government of Jakarta Province and land owners
such as real estate companies allow landless farmers use their lands, they only officiously recognize the agricultural activities
of landless farmers due to the potential future of land (re)claiming conflicts amongst the landless farmers, land owners, and
the state. Thus, the government with the support of land owners tend to record and underestimate paddy lands. Those
limitations are human factors.
Keywords—rice agriculture, urban agriculture, paddy field area, Jakarta
Implications of demographic transition for productive absorption of

labour force: The case of Bangladesh
Rahman, M.Z.,1,* and Titumir, R.A.M.
1
Department of Development Studies, Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP), Dhaka-1216, Bangladesh;
*
tasneemdu@gmail.com
2
Department of Development Studies, University of Dhaka, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh
Abstract—The paper reviews the dynamics of changes in population age structure change during demographic transition and
its relevance with respect to participation in labour force and their productive absorption in Bangladesh. Drawing from a rich
yet fragmented array of literature, the paper attempts to propose a comprehensive framework that integrates the relations
amongst changes in population age structure during demographic transition and economic development in the contexts of
developing countries. Using the framework, the article finds that Bangladesh is passing through the intermediate stage of its
demographic transition which offers a productive or ‘dividend’ phase and could accelerate economic growth principally
through changes in the composition of labour force and its absorption into productive employment. The article argues that
despite the proportion of working age population is currently increasing more than the growth of total population and thereby
expanding the size of labour force, Bangladesh could not fully capitalize on the advantageous condition of having a population
with large concentration at productive ages. The paper also stresses that the country is facing a number of challenges in terms
of harnessing economic growth to be more job-intensive in high productivity sectors, enhancing quality of labour and skill
development, and expanding the productive capacity of the economy to absorb the growing labour force, which must be
addressed to achieve sustained economic development.
Keywords—demographic dividend, demographic transition, economic development, labour absorption, population age
structure
Harmonizing the Water- Energy- Food Nexus in Haryana: An

Exploration of Technology and Policy Options
Tyagi, N.K.,* and Joshi, P.K.
Central Soil Salinity Research Institute Karnal, Ghaziabad, Uttar Pradesh 201012, India; * nktyagi1947@gmail.com
Abstract—This research deals with harmonization of groundwater and the energy nexus in the state of Haryana, in the arid
Trans-Gangetic plain (India), which is faced with ecologically unsustainable groundwater abstractions with significantly
higher energy footprints in food production. Detailed analysis conducted with the aid of standard research tools established
that water and energy intensive cropping system and the highly energy inefficient 0.75 million pump sets deployed for water
extraction- both facilitated by public policies, were responsible for the emerging situation. An ecologically compatible
cropping pattern, which envisages reallocation of crop areas, accompanied by water and energy smart agro-hydro-technologies,
reducing irrigation requirement by 9.88 billion cubic meters(BCM), and thereby eliminating the need for groundwater over
draft, has been designed. Based on the results of pilot studies under ‘Agriculture Demand Side Management’ programme,
which had indicated scope for increasing pumping efficiencies from the existing level of 35 per cent to 50 per cent, introduction
of Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) labelled pump sets is advocated. The suggested intervention could afford a saving of
3465 million kWh of energy, annually. Additionally, these interventions would also yield a reduction of the order of 5243
million kg CO2e in GHGs, thereby harmonizing the water-energy-food nexus. Implementation of desired changes would
require a relook at water, energy and crop pricing policies.
Keywords—agro-technology, climate change, energy, reallocation

icshge.org
The Existence of Modified Environmental Curve for Gender Inequality

in MENA Economies: Panel data model
Sileem, H.H.M.
Economics, Sadat Academy for Management Sciences, Cairo, Egypt; hanan@sadatacademy.edu.eg
Abstract—The usual Modified Environmental Kuznets Curve (MEKC) examines the environment-development relationship
to reflect the impact of development on environment degradation. However, gender inequality recently appears to have serious
impacts on climate mitigation and adaptation measures that require special consideration. After all, sustainable development
cannot be fulfilled when the contribution of half the available human resources in the community is underestimated. To reflect
the gender dimension, my research examines the existence of MEKC relationship between CO2 emissions per capita and
female participation in 18 MENA economies for the period 1990-2015 using panel data estimation. Arguing on the existence
of MKEC for gender-climate relationship in the MENA region, the empirical results show that the contribution of women is
crucial to reverse the vulnerability of the MENA region to climate change. Thus, gender equality can be an effective factor in
adaption and mitigation measures. In this context, gender-responsive climate policy actions can be an efficient channel to allow
sustainable development in the MENA region.
Keywords—sustainable development, gender, climate change, MEKC, adaptation measures
The Question of the “Death” of Small Farmers in Jakarta, Indonesia

Anggrahita, H.,1,* Purwanto, S.A.,2 Guswandi,3 and Susilowati, M.1
1
Depok 16424, Indonesia; * hayuning.anggrahita@gmail.com
2
16424, Indonesia
3
Indonesia
Abstract—Rice planting and agriculture sectors are often considered low or even no longer exist in Jakarta. Nevertheless, these
activities have survived, and can play an important role on the sustainability of the city. Rapid urban growth and massive
urbanization certainly put strong pressure to urban farmers. This paper aims to analyze the response of urban farmers in land
competition and to describe the role of urban agriculture on their daily life. In 2018, we conducted research in some areas of
North and West Jakarta by carrying out semi-structure interviews with the farmers, government officials, and the people who
control vacant lands in the scattered areas of Jakarta. In addition, we also conducted spatial analysis and actor analysis. Our
investigation finds out that the agricultural lands are controlled by some private companies, state institutions, and rich
individuals. The farmers access them by approaching both formal and informal community leaders. In North Jakarta, land
ownership is mostly controlled by private companies while in West Jakarta; some private companies hand over the land
arrangement for agricultural purposes to government or military institutions. However, private companies still control the land
ownership. Although the control of land is in those powerful institutions, we found that there are some groups of farmers that
cultivated the land. They adapt to both physical and socio economic urban environment. Moreover, urban agriculture provides
primary or secondary source of income for urban farmer household.
Keywords—rice cultivation, urban agriculture, land competition, sustainability, Jakarta
Psychological Assessment of the Influence of Contact with Mountain

Landscape Environment on Directed Attention and Stress
Ojobo, H.,* Shammang, K.J., Kagai1, K.J., and Kange, L.O.
Department of Architecture, Kaduna State University, Kaduna, Nigeria; * henry.ojobo@kasu.edu.ng
Abstract—Contact with natural environments is expected to influence positive effects in terms of human wellbeing, improved
mood states and general health. Specifically, Attention Restoration Theory predicts that contact with natural environments
influence involuntary attention moderately whilst also enhancing task performance that depends on directed attention abilities
because the necessity for directed attention is reduced in such environments. Consequently, a wide range of studies have
emerged aimed at ascertaining the link between contact with natural environment and human wellbeing. However, whilst quite
a number of studies have been carried out on the restorative benefits of forests and wilderness environments, mountain
landscape environments have received little attention. The purpose of this study is to assess the effect of experiential contact
with mountain landscape environment through psychological measures. 38 respondents had their perceived stress and
perceived restorativeness measured in order to ascertain their wellbeing. These involved obtaining subjective psychological

icshge.org
responses of respondents using scaled questionnaires namely; perceived stress scale and perceived restorativeness scale. The
four components of a restorative environment namely, being away, extent, fascination and compatibility were linked to
perceived stress of individuals. This established the extent of psychological recovery from directed attention and stress in the
mountain landscape environment. In summary, being away and compatibility influenced perceived stress significantly, extent
and fascination components did not. This study is underpinned by the theoretical understanding that effect of nature experience
on human beings is dependent on its restorative qualities. Hence, the scope of environments studied in terms of landscape
types and their restorative benefits have been expanded through the situatedness of this study in the mountain landscape
environment.
Keywords—mountain landscape, directed attention, stress, wellbeing
The Impact of Human Activities and Climate Changes on the

Vulnerability and Sustainability of Water Resources in the Eastern Part
of Romania
Minea, I.
“Alexandru Ioan Cuza” University of Iasi, Faculty of Geography and Geology, Department of Geography, Iasi, Romania;
ionutminea1979@yahoo.com
Abstract—The local and regional strategies of the past decade have attempted to introduce the principles of sustainable
development, which would allow Romania to both meet economic demands and face increasingly pronounced climate changes.
With a surface of 20569 km2 and a population of 2.2 million, the eastern part of the country, spread between the rivers Siret
and Prut and sharing borders with the Ukraine (to the north) and the Republic of Moldova (to the east). All the region is
classified as vulnerable from an economic and social point of view, but also as far as the impact of climate change upon water
resources is concerned. Anthropic activities and climate changes are triggering the modification of the hydrological regime (in
both quantity and quality) and an increase in the severity of issues associated with water bodies shared with other countries
(such as the river Prut, which acts as the border between Romania and the Republic of Moldova), thus rendering an already
overexploited resource even more vulnerable. The conclusions of scientific analyses aimed at assessing the effects of climate
change upon water resources allow an evaluation of their degree of vulnerability and sustainability in the face of irreversible
challenges. The trend toward phenomena such as global warming, evaluated for the region at 0.2-0.30C for the last 50 years,
together with an increase in the frequency of extreme temperature values and precipitation volumes emphasize the degree of
vulnerability of water resources to current climate changes. This is partly reflected in the increase of Water Exploitation Index
Plus (WEI +) frequency values which includes water resources from this region, in the category with medium and low capacity
of sustainability.
Mapping of West Siberian arctic wetland complexes using Landsat

imagery: Implications for methane emissions
Terentieva, I.E.,1,* Sabrekov, A.F.,1 Glagolev, M.V.,2,3,4 and Maksyutov, S.5
1
A.N. Severtsov Institute of ecology and evolution RAS, Leninsky Ave, 33, Moscow, 119071, Russia;
*
kleptsova@gmail.com
2
Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Gubkin st., 3, Moscow, 119333, Russia
3
Yugra State University, Chehova st., 16, Khanty-Mansiysk, 628012, Russia
4
Moscow State University, Leninskie Gory, 1, Moscow, 119991, Russia
5
National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
Abstract—High latitude wetlands are important for understanding climate change risks because these environments sink
carbon dioxide and emit methane. The West Siberia Lowland (WSL) is the biggest peatland area in Eurasia. Arctic region of
WSL experiences enhanced rate of climate change. To estimate its impact on the climate change, we need an accurate map of
arctic peatlands including fine-scale heterogeneity. A number of them was developed since 1970s, but their accuracy is limited.
In order to reduce uncertainties at the regional scale, we mapped wetlands and water bodies in the WSL on a scene-by-scene
basis using a supervised classification of Landsat imagery. Training data consisted of high-resolution images and extensive
field data. The classification scheme aimed at supporting methane inventory applications and included 7 wetland ecosystem
types comprising 9 wetland complexes distinguishable at the Landsat resolution. To merge typologies, mean relative areas of
wetland ecosystems within each wetland complex type were estimated using high-resolution images. The total WSL area of
arctic wetlands and water bodies was estimated to be 14.1 Mha or 28.3% of the arctic region area. Open areas of water dominate
here covering 4.36 Mha and followed by palsa hillocks (2.67 Mha), various oligotrophic hollows (2.67 Mha) and waterlogged
hollows (2.45 Mha). Arctic zone contains 19.9% of WSL's wetlands; their distribution was described in detail by Terentieva
et al. (2016). Concerning methane emission, WSL's arctic wetlands are responsible for only 8% of the regional methane.
Moreover, waterlogged hollows emit 76% of methane flux from WSL's arctic ecosystems. Major uncertainties are associated

icshge.org
with the lack of emission data for polygonal wetlands and numerous. The new Landsat-based map of WSL arctic wetlands
provides a benchmark for validation of coarse-resolution global land cover products and wetland datasets in high latitudes.
(The study was supported by RFBR project № 18-35-00340.)
Creating a Sustainable Green Planet (SGP) by Generating Solar Bio-

Energy from Wastewater and Waste?
Manglani, J.
President, Only Nature Endures (ONE), NGO (One Nature), Delhi, India
Abstract—I have recently invented a technology to create a Sustainable Green Planet by Generating Solar Bio-Energy in the
form of healthy vegetation, soil, water, air and life from Wastewater and Waste (SGP). Our current sanitation methods
decompose valuable organics in waste and wastewater to foul gases acids and sludge that degrade air, land and water. They
are unsafe for workers, require skilled staff and immense electricity. They lead to major problems such as water pollution,
water scarcity, loss of soil fertility, global warming, climate change, poor economy, poor health and loss of life. SGP solves
these problems. In SGP, organics are not decomposed but, recomposed efficiently to said bio-energy products in aerobic
conditions using photosynthesis, gravity and biofiltration through inorganic waste. Simple skills are used to build and operate
the sophisticated unit, thus creating human equity. The products are excellent for afforestation, farming, animal husbandry,
biodiversity and aquaculture amongst other uses. Thus, atmospheric carbon dioxide can be absorbed and stored in the soil
carbon pool by growing vegetation. This is encouraged by the Kyoto protocol. This stabilizes the planet and averts natural
hazards. SGP has been operated successfully at a large lab and 200-people field scale. SGP also treats raw water. SGP units
can be made on a family scale to a large municipal scale. SGP is sustainable because it is safe, ecological, economical and
efficient. SGP and other such technologies can foster a sustainable green planet if we all synergise our interests and strengths
to adopt and promote them.
Study of the spatial and landscape structure of the sands and gravels
exploitation region in the context of adaptation to climate change
Pawełczyk, K.
Akademia Górniczo-Hutnicza (AGH) im. Stanisława Staszica w Krakowie, Kraków, Małopolska 30-059, Poland;
pawelczyk@agh.edu.pl
Abstract—Climate change and the increasingly intense meteorological phenomena are a serious threat to the environment and,
consequently, to the societies that live in it. Extremely important factors affecting the adaptation of the post-mining area to
climate change include, inter alia, the degree of anthropogenic transformation, land use, the share of biologically active area
and reservoirs constituting blue-green infrastructure together. These elements of the environment together constitute a group
of spatial and landscape conditions. Examination of these conditions leads to obtaining quantitative and qualitative information
about the resources and functioning of a given ecosystem. What's more, it is possible to use them to describe the changes in
the environment and the impact of various processes on the environment, which is of great importance when studying the
impact of climate change on a given area. It should be mentioned that space, depending on the features, may play an important
role in mitigating the effects of extreme phenomena, such as floods or heat waves, as well as retaining water, absorbing carbon
dioxide and absorbing pollutants. Spatial and landscape conditions can therefore be key elements in assessing the potential of
post-mining areas in the context of adaptation to climate change. The aim of the research was to define and analyze
dependencies and connections between the spatial and landscape structure of the sands and gravels exploitation region and
adaptation of this area to climate change. Spatial and landscape analysis methods, including inventory and valorisation of the
area were used in conducted research.
The Challenges of Rearing Insects for Food within the UK

Suckling, J., and Druckman, A.
Centre for Environment and Sustainability, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK; j.suckling@surrey.ac.uk
Abstract—The human food supply chain is placing an ever increasing strain upon the Earth’s environmental systems. In
particular, it is estimated that rearing animals as a source of protein requires 33% of the planet’s arable land and is responsible
for 14% of greenhouse gas emissions. The resource demands to feed a growing population, eating a diet based on increasing
quantities of meat, may make it impossible to meet the emissions targets set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement. A radical re-
think of our food systems is therefore required in order to enable future generations feed themselves sustainably. Crickets are
widely viewed as a more sustainable source of animal proteins for humans to consume, requiring far less resources to produce
a kilogram of protein, compared to beef or lamb. In the United Kingdom, there is growing interest in rearing crickets for human

icshge.org
consumption. Moreover, there already exists a thriving market for crickets as live pet food within the UK, and these UK based
businesses are keen to take advantage of a potential new human food market. But what are the implications for shifting of
business models from live pet food to human food? This research takes a life cycle assessment based approach to assess the
environmental impact of rearing crickets within the UK for live pet food. It uses the results to explore the ramifications for
both the business and the environmental impact of shifting from the live food market to the human food market. It provides
guidance on what changes may need to be put into place to ensure that there are no unintended consequences from making the
shift.
Rainfall Variability Study in Auchi, Edo State, Nigeria

Ukhurebor, K.E.
Department of Physics, Edo University Iyamho, Edo State, Nigeria; ukhurebor.kingsley@edouniversity.edu.ng
Abstract—Variation in rainfall is one of the major features of climate variability that needs to be given adequate attention
because of its influence on agricultural activities and other aspects of human endeavors. In this study the annual rainfall data
of forty years (1978-2017) for Auchi, Edo State, Nigeria was collected from the archive of NiMet in order to evaluate its
variability. Three methods were used for this study; Statistical Differences between two the equal-length time scales, CV and
the Anomaly Approach. The trend analysis using t-test, Sen’s estimator slope and Mann Kendall were also carried out in order
to determine the trend in the rainfall variables. The results show that the differences between the two means of the equal-length
time scales revealed variability of 7.00mm. Similarly, the CV of rainfall was 0.145 signifying low variability. However, the
anomaly results revealed that 21 years (52.5%) recorded less rainfall; while 19 years (47.5%) recorded much rainfall. The
Sen’s estimator slope revealed downward trend of 94mm/yr in 1978-1987 decades; while it recorded upward trends of;
90mm/yr, 30mm/yr and 118mm/yr during the 1988-1997, 1998-2007 and 2008-2017 decades respectively. This study has
further revealed that there are variations in the rainfall. Consequently, there is an optimum need to sensitize the general public
about its existence so as to take the necessary measures and adaptation options for its mollification and management.
Keywords—climate, agriculture, rainfall, variability
Analytical Study of the Relationship between Man and the Environment

with Ethical and Philosophical Approach
Vatandoost, M.
Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran; ma.vatandoost@um.ac.ir
Abstract—Undoubtedly, there is a deep link between the environment and humans. If we consider humans and the environment
as a system, we both realize that they need to communicate and interact with each other in their existential survival. Now, if
we consider the world as a system, we find that humans and the environment are the components of the world in which we
live. So you can ask a question: Does it damage the whole system by destroying some components of a system? With a little
care, you can know that the answer is yes! With a general look at the relationship between the environment and the human
being, as well as the interaction between them, it can easily be understood that with the destruction of each component of the
world, the failure and the failure of other components of the system are created. As well as keeping parts of a system healthy,
its components will be far from corruption and ruin. In this paper, it is attempted in the first step, through a philosophical
approach, to explain the existence of an essential relationship between man and the environment, and in the second step,
solutions should be made to exit from the environmental crisis from an ethical point of view.
Social impacts that the degradation of salt lakes has on local communities
Zenko, M.
Institute of Environmental Sciences and Technology, ICTA-ICP Building Z Campus UAB, 08193 Bellaterra (Cerdanyola),
Barcelona, Spain; maja.zenko@uab.cat
Abstract—This paper examines the social impacts that the degradation of salt lakes has on local communities that depend on
the services those ecosystems provide for their livelihoods. Salt lakes around the world are increasingly threatened by human
activities as well as by climate change. The studied area is Lake Urmia located in northwestern Iran. Once among the largest
hypersaline lakes in the world, Lake Urmia is now in danger of drying out with the surrounding ecosystems having undergone
drastic changes due to a combination of natural and made main factors, especially upstream over-exploitation of inflowing
rivers. The population around the lake is exposed to many challenges such as the desertification of land, water shortages and
salinization of water sources as well as salt storms. The study explores a wide range of social impacts experienced by the local
rural population and shows that the degradation of Lake Urmia and the surrounding ecosystems is not only an environmental
disaster but also a socioeconomic one. The socio-economic impacts include a drastic loss of income, increased workload,

icshge.org
health and mental health impacts, social changes such as conflicts and competition within the communities, emigration from
the area and impacts on education. Despite the implementation of many governmental and non-governmental projects aimed
at mitigating negative impacts for local population, our finding show that the access to benefits of such projects is limited due
to many structural barriers experienced by the population. The article also explores some possibilities for increasing the
knowledge of and participation in such projects.
Keywords—salt lakes, downstream communities, Lake Urmia, social impacts, well-being
Determination of 238U, 232Th and 40K in Selected Borehole Rock Samples

in Abuja, Nigeria, using Neutron Activation Analysis and its Radiological
Risk on Drillers
Omeje, M.,1,* Adagunodo, T.A.,1 Akinwumi, S.A.,1 Adewoyin, O.O.,1 Joel, E.S.,1 Theophilus, I.T.,2 Husin, W.,3
and Mohd, S.H.4
1
Department of Physics, College of Science and Technology, Covenant University, KM 10, Idiroko Road, Canaanland,
P.M.B. 1023, (Postal Code 112233), Ota, Ogun State, Nigeria; * maxwell.omeje@covenantuniversity.edu.ng
2
Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, Covenant University, KM 10, Idiroko Road, Canaanland, P.M.B.
1023, (Postal Code 112233), Ota, Ogun State, Nigeria
3
Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi, Malaysia, 81310, Joho, Malaysia
4
Malaysia Nuclear Agency, Bangi, 43000 Kajang, Selangor Darul, Ehsan, Malaysia
Abstract—The inadequate access to public water supply in Abuja has forced more than 80 % of the population of about 5
million to drill private borehole. Drillers are not aware of rock radioactivity especially Abuja granitic rocks which varies with
depth. The radioactivity of 238U and 232Th decay chains for the lithological rock samples could be at equilibrium considering
the age as well as the isotopic mass proportion which is assumed to be equal to its natural isotopic. A new approach of using
Neutron Activation Analysis (NAA) is adopted for this study with the aim of minimizing sample size as well as less counting
rate to estimate the concentration in rock samples. Subsequently, the epithermal method for the decay chain of 238U was also
used for 40K decay chain determination. The result was used to determine the radium equivalent index risk on drillers with a
value of 400.63 Bqkg‒1 which is higher than 370 Bqkg‒1recommeded by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the
Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) by a factor of 1.08. This value of 400.63 Bqkg‒1 may pose hazard health risk on
drillers with external hazard index of 1.1 which is higher than 1 recommended by UNSCEAR. The results of this analysis
using NAA have indicated that the exposure level due to naturally occurring radionuclides was lower, but safety rules should
be applied for the borehole drillers in Abuja and beyond.
The Social Institution and Site of ‘Balti Lchangra’

Zakir, Z.H.
University of Baltistan, Skardu, Gilgit-Baltistan 16100, Pakistan; zakir.hussain@uobs.edu.pk
Abstract—‘Balti Hlchangra’ is one of the most significant socio-cultural site and institution, especially in the remote rural
areas (villages) of Baltistan. ‘Hlchangra’ is the name of a common place and social-site where socialization/ enculturation take
place. This unbounded physical space normally at a central location of easy access owned by the whole village community is
one of the significant social site in human geography. It is defined in other way round as well, the site where normally people
gather together and sit for longer time and share things of their interest is normally termed as ‘Hlchangra’. This is a
phenomenon as well as a social site. At Hlchangra, the village people gather for pastime, entertainment and socialization. Here
people chat in informal ways, elders share their experiences and stories, youngsters get socialize and mature. New
developments and hot news about everything from national and global politics to homes based events are shared here. The
community management issues are discussed and settled. Collective plans and delegation of community service tasks are
discussed. Disputes and conflicts are resolved, successes and fortunes of the village people are celebrated. Women gather to
share their experiences, views and words. This paper explores and presents the niche of this social site, institution and
phenomena through participant observation and interviews of elders having life time experience of being at Hlchangra.
Importance of Vegetable Farming in Improving Economic and

Nutritional Status of Farmers in the region of Smallholding agriculture;
an Evidence from Malda District of West Bengal, India
Ali, M.R.
Department of Geography, A.M.U, Aligarh, 202002, India; rustum8amu@gmail.com

icshge.org
Abstract—Currently about 800 million people are suffering from hunger and one in eight people lives in extreme poverty
worldwide. The major concentration of these hunger and poverty ridden people is found in the developing countries of sub-
Saharan Africa and Asia. Out of the total (1.45 billion) multidimensional poor, 48 percent lives in South-Asian countries and
36 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is found that the countries with high poverty and hunger have agrarian economy. India is
no exception. Here majority of the people are dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. But their agriculture is
predominantly traditional and subsistent in nature which is responsible for their all sorts of economic and social miseries. In a
country of smallholders like India the promotion of ‘high-value cropping’ like vegetables could be a good option to fight
poverty and malnutrition because vegetables are mostly rich in minerals and nutrient content and the farming of vegetables is
economically more profitable. In this backdrop, the present study tries to assess the importance of vegetable farming in
improving economic and nutritional status of the farmers’ family. For this a primary survey has been conducted in Malda
district of West Bengal in February, 2017. A total of 360 farmers (180 vegetable growers and 180 non-vegetable growers)
were randomly selected from three different regions of the district and interviewed. The overall economic status as well as
nutritional status of the family of vegetable growers is relatively better than the non- vegetable growers. The Correlation matrix
shows that the vegetable farming and per-capita intake of vegetables of the famers’ family is positively correlated. It indicates
that the farmers who engaged in vegetable farming are closer to the daily minimum standard requirement of vegetables than
the non-vegetable farmers. Hence, the study concludes that a special attention should be paid to promote the smallholders
towards vegetable farming.
Keywords—smallholdings, vegetable-farming, economic and nutrition security, correlation
Do firms innovate when they can relocate? Evidence from the steel
industry
Valacchi, G.
WIPO, Ferney Voltaire, Ain 01210, France; giulia.valacchi@graduateinstitute.ch
Abstract—The steel industry is the largest industrial consumer of energy and it is among the top polluting sectors worldwide.
We want to study how this industry responds to tights in the main input price, namely coal. With a novel dataset on steel plants
location worldwide from 1960 to 2014, we are able to distinguish between a green, Electric Arc Furnace, and a dirty, Basic
Oxygen Furnace, steelmaking technology, and to follow the evolution of their adoption across different countries over time.
Using a pre-sample mean GMM estimator to correct for the endogeneity between production choices and inputs’ prices, we
find that, an increase by 1% in coal price reduces the number of active BOF units by 0.67% while only by 0.45% the number
of EAF ones. Running simulations with the estimated elasticities, we show that differentiated carbon prices across regions may
mitigate the risk of relocation and encourage countries to join a global carbon market which can promote a technology
transition in the steel industry.
Participation Cost and Value: Between Equity and Efficiency in

Multilevel Governance (Case Study: Indonesian National Empowerment
Program Policy Document Analysis)
Anggraeni, M.1,2
1
Department of Geography, Planning and International Development Studies, Faculty of Social and Behavioural Science,
Amsterdam Institute of Social Science Research, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
2
Urban and Regional Planning, Engineering Faculty, Brawijaya University, Malang, Indonesia; m.anggraeni@uva.nl
Abstract—As an essential element of sustainable development, participation and inclusion of stakeholders in
empowerment/poverty alleviation program is a mainstream strategy in the past decade. Community or individual participation
in development notified as rights that need to be fulfilled as a citizen and the benefit of participation is beyond value. However,
participation often taken as “one size fits all” solution, yet participation is not always effective in all circumstances. To have
ideal and meaningful participation, the participation could generate a variety level of cost depends on problem structure. This
research is conducted in the context of empowerment/poverty alleviation program that partly funded by international
organization’s loan (World Bank), and implemented in Indonesia from national, province to the local level. The cost of
participation included in this research influenced by a method of participation such as meetings, FGDs, e-participation,
capacity building etc. The discussion of participation cost in the literature is relatively rare, especially how it is discussed in
which perspective “equity or effectiveness”? Therefore, the main objective of this research is understanding how does
participation cost and value being calculated and budgeted in multi-level governance specifically in the policy documents. The
main method for this research is policy documents content analysis (thematic analysis), and interviews. The main result of this
research concludes that in international level the idea of participation and its budgeting is somewhat balance between
maintaining equity and effectiveness, however in the level of implementation in national to local level, participation saw more
through the lens of effectiveness. In the international level, the concept of participation mentioned in the documents, and

icshge.org
encouraged to be implemented as a requirement of the loan. In the co-occurrence of the concept of participation with its cost
was less discussed. However, the participation cost in this particular WB projects is mainly reflected in capacity building,
facilitator, and consultant, as totally 18% of the total budget. The intangible cost of participation is covered in safeguard
document. The mechanism to consider these cost (such as conflict, and other indirect costs) are analyzed but not accounted
monetarily. In the national policy of Indonesia, Participation is mentioned as the principle of democracy in the document,
however the role of national government is limited to encourage the provincial and local government to conduct participation.
None of the national, province and local policy documents mention about participation cost and value budgeting. In the local
level, when the government expenses on participation should be detailed and can be transparently evaluated, the items of
participation cost and value does not emerge sufficiently in the budget reports. The government invites external consultants
and the budgeting of participation is arranged by the consultants and there is less control from the government to decide how
much is the participation cost is budgeted and implemented, as well as the value of participation.
Keywords— sustainability, participation cost and value, multilevel governance, equity, effectiveness
GIS: A tool for monitoring air pollution and implementing mitigation

measures for sensitive areas in Kuwait
Al-Mutairi, N.
Civil Engineering Department at Kuwait University, Kuwait; nayef.almutairi@ku.edu.kw
Abstract—In this research, GIS investigation was implemented to categorize air pollution concentrations in relative to land-
dwelling use of Kuwait. The objective of this paper was to (1) analysis the air pollution concentrations using GIS Mapping
and (2) Identify the Areas with high annual average concentrations. Air quality data collected by Kuwait Environmental Public
Authority (KEPA) at various monitoring stations located at fifteen locations was used from 2013 to 2017. The measured data
included the concentration of different pollutants such as Nitrogen Dioxide, Sulfur Dioxide, Ammonia, Benzene, Nitrogen
Oxides, PM10, and PM2.5. Three-dimensional association amid 5 monitoring stations was examined. The association and time-
based analysis of air pollution problems was based on ambient air quality levels in the winter and summer season. The GIS
analysis showed that air pollution levels in the city were intensely correlated to land use type. Mapping was carried out for
NO2 in Al-Mutla, AliSabah-AlSalem and AlMansourya. Records from the monitoring sites were then used to create a
regression equation, on the foundation of predictor environmental variables, and the subsequent equation used to map air
pollution across the study area. The precision of the map was then evaluated by associating predicted with monitored pollution
levels at a range of independent reference sites. Results showed that the map produced extremely good predictions of monitored
pollution levels, both for individual surveys and for the mean annual concentration, with r2=0.9. In AlMansourya and AliSabah-
AlSalem, further monitoring also showed that the pollution map provided reliable estimates of NO2 concentrations in the
following year (r2=0.86). Unlike other models, GIS presents records on the map, marking the sensitive areas, which permits
the corresponding specialists to respond earlier and put on suitable procedures in order to safeguard the environment.
Consequently, the use of GIS can improve the procedure of regulating total pollutant emissions. There is inadequate research
that merely delivers facts about air pollutant emissions in Kuwait. Therefore, the application of GIS models provides tangible
results, presented graphically on a map, so that we can react faster in order to solve recorded problems.
Keywords—geographic information system (GIS), air pollution; Kuwait; urban air quality, vehicular emission
Evaluating the Indoor Air Quality in Healthcare Facilities: A case study

at the Dental Clinic of Eskisehir Osmangazi University
Alptekin, O.,* and Güçyeter, B.
Department of Architecture, Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, Eskisehir Osmangazi University, Eskisehir, Turkey;
*
orkunalptekin@outlook.com
Abstract—In the 1990s, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and its Science Advisory Board (SAB)
reported that indoor air quality (IAQ) problems are among the top five environmental risks to public health. Indoor air quality
(IAQ) is considered as a significant and complex issue for healthcare facilities, with respect to the two main problems,
specifically, poor or inadequate ventilation and exposure to certain contaminant sources. Given the fact that healthcare facilities
accommodate extensive use of specific chemicals and procedures and are occupied by quite a number of occupants (patients)
it becomes inevitable that the indoor air quality becomes deteriorated over working hours. In this respect, this study presents
the outcomes of a field study conducted at the Dental Clinic of Eskisehir Osmangazi University. The naturally ventilated
building was monitored for indoor air quality by the measurements conducted for total volatile organic components (total
VOCs), carbon dioxide and particulate matter in sample workdays in 2017 and 2018. According to the findings of the study,
it could be argued that the high occupancy rates of the building and the use of specific chemicals and procedures could pose a
threat to the overall health of the dentists and the staff, who are subject to various exposure levels for indoor air contaminants
such as total volatile organic components (VOCs), carbon dioxide and particulate matter. It is concluded that the inadequacy

icshge.org
of natural ventilation regimes that is based on the control of building occupants caused high concentrations for the measured
parameters and mechanical systems such as building pressurization, moisture, filtration, and local exhaust could be useful to
improve the indoor air quality of the dental clinic.
Keywords—indoor air quality, total VOCs, carbon dioxide, particulate matter, dental clinic, healthcare facilities
Impact of Tactile Maps on the Geo-Spatial Abilities of the Visually

Impaired Persons in Nigeria
Irabor, M.O.
College of Education, Igueben, Edo State, Nigeria; odmatata@gmail.com
Abstract—This research work is empirical study of the spatial awareness and map reading ability of visually impaired persons
in Nigeria. It is expected that this work will aid the design strategies of good tactile maps and consequently improve the
teaching and learning of geography. Some of the study objectives were to test the visually disabled persons to recognize and
identify map symbols, to determine their perception of spatial phenomena and to identify the peculiar problems, confronting
them in map use. The methodology included the design of tactile maps and the construction of 28 test items based on the tactile
maps which were administered to 30 visually impaired persons in Edo State. The study revealed that well designed maps aid
the impaired persons understanding of geographical distributions and that discrete and varied map symbols texture help the
blind to understand geographical distributions.
Low Carbon Development Efficiencies of OECD Countries

Alptekin, N.
Faculty of Business Administration, Anadolu University, Eskişehir, Turkey
Abstract—Carbon dioxide emissions produced by fossil fuels is regarded as one of the main factors of global climate change.
Although there are different opinions towards the issue of global warming, international communities have made substantial
efforts in reducing national and global carbon dioxide emissions. However, low carbon development has been advocated by
many countries as a new development model. Low carbon development is defined as utilizing less carbon to promote economic
growth in the future. In our age, the increasing importance of climate change, low carbon development is a new form of
sustainable development. The ultimate aim of low-carbon development is to achieve environmental, economic and social
sustainable development. In this context, country comparisons obtained by evaluation of low-carbon development indicators
are important. The aim of the paper is to evaluate low carbon development efficiencies of OECD countries by fuzzy data
envelopment analysis. The variables used in the analysis are amount of CO2 per capita, the ratio of fossil energy consumption
as input variables and non-fossil energy consumption rate and human development index as output variables. With fuzzy data
envelopment analysis, upper and lower efficiency limits were obtained using five different α- cut level: 0, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75 and
1. For each α – cut level, maximum loss of efficiency values of OECD countries’ low carbon development levels were
calculated by Minimax Regret Approach and countries with inefficient scores were listed from best to the worst.
Nonlinear area-to-point regression kriging for spatial-temporal mapping

of malaria risk
Truong, P.N.
Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands;
p.truong@utwente.nl
Abstract—Mapping spatial-temporal variations of malaria risk serves a very useful purpose of improving public health
intervention and protection. Smooth disease risk mapping can help to reduce errors and biases due to demographic
heterogeneity in predicting malaria risk using the reported number of malaria cases in space and time. This study presents a
new statistical model that is expanded from the existing area-to-point (ATP) kriging models in spatial statistics to map spatial-
temporal variations of malaria risk in southern Vietnam. The essence of the new model is a Poisson regression ATP model
that has fixed effects and random effects. The fixed effects link disease data and environmental data at various measurement
and observation scales. The fixed effects are instead approximated by maximum-entropy approximation. This advancement is
to minimize the ecological biases when disease data are only available from national routine surveillance at small areas. The
random effects which are spatial-temporally auto-correlated are predicted by using simple ATP kriging. The results of mapping
malaria risk at district level using data at provincial level are validated using areal cross-validation. Compare to the results
from the same case study but using common ATP log-linear model, the new model is superior in terms of minimizing prediction

icshge.org
biases. The case study of mapping malaria risk demonstrates the superiority of the new model in mapping disease risk using
data at different scales. Moreover, the model allows the uncertainty about the mapping outcome to be quantified.
Keywords—disease risk mapping, small area estimation, malaria risk, ATP kriging, spatial epidemiology
Environmental Governance and Pro-environmental Behaviour Change in

Vietnam’s Marine Protected Area
Pham, N.
School of Geosciences, Faculty of Science, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; pham.ngoc@sydney.edu.au
Abstract—Fostering the pro-environmental behaviour changes of local people in the marine protected areas (MPAs) is one of
the most important targets in order to manage the MPAs. However, the changes normally fail because of the conflicts between
the local beneficial from natural resource access and the marine protections. In this context, the environmental governance is
the driver of the changes. This paper will present the relationships between the environmental governance and pro-
environmental behaviour changes of local people in Cham MPA at the Central of Vietnam. This MPA was recognized as the
successful biodiversity recovery and the local behaviour changes. The study was conducted by qualitative approach with
participatory observation and interview in the last six months. The results show that good governance has impacted on the pro-
environmental behaviour change through the local engagements in the economic transformation context.
Keywords—environmental governance, environmental behaviour change, marine protected area (MPA), transformation, local
engagement
Degradation of a textile dye by photocatalysis, electro-oxidation and their

coupling
Saaidia, S., Barbari, K., Allat, L., Djemel, A., Benredjem, Z., and Delimi, R.*
Laboratory of Water Treatment and Valorization of Industrial Wastes, Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Sciences, Badji-
Mokhtar University, Annaba, Algeria; * rachid.delimi@univ-annaba.dz
Abstract—The advanced oxidation processes are currently expanding in the field of environmental technologies to improve
existing municipal and industrial wastewater treatment systems, or to replace conventional technologies that are found low
efficiency for the removal of refractory organic pollutants. This work presents a feasibility study for removing of a textile dye
by electrochemical oxidation and photocatalytic processes and by their coupling. The various characterization techniques
(SEM, EDS and XRD) showed that the positive electrode of the lead-acid battery used as an anode in the electro-oxidation
consists essentially of crystals in the form of pyramid attributed to β-PbO2 and PC-500 photocatalyst TiO2 is only composed
of anatase phase. Dye methylene blue removal by electro-oxidation and photocatalysis was successfully performed. However,
the coupling of these two techniques allowed to reach higher degradation (99.40%) and mineralization (98.39%) rates. The
effect of certain operating factors on coupling performance has been studied. In this work, it has been shown that the efficiency
of removal of an organic pollutant can be improved by the coupling of advanced oxidation processes.
Keywords—textile dye, electro-oxidation, photocatalysis, lead dioxide, refractory pollutant
Urban Agriculture in Jakarta (Indonesia): Some ethnographic and

spatial analysis perspectives
Purwanto, S.A.,1 Anggrahita, H.,2,* Susilowati, M.,2 and Guswandi 3
1
16424, Indonesia; * hayuning.anggrahita@gmail.com
2
Depok 16424, Indonesia
3
Indonesia
Abstract—Jakarta, as third world metropolitan, accommodates agricultural sites, although agriculture is a marginal activity in
the city. The farmers cultivate various agricultural crops. While there is always be a question about land availability in the city,
it is interesting to investigate who are the farmers, their origin and background; how they access lands; and how they adapt as
urban farmers. We had conducted a qualitative research in three areas of East Jakarta during 2007-2008, followed by a
quantitative research to cover larger area of Jakarta in 2010. Besides, we carried out rural-urban approach and spatial analysis
to explain the spatial dynamics of urban farmers in the city. The research finds that most of vegetable urban farmers are in

icshge.org
small scale and are migrants from rural areas. They moved to Jakarta to work in this sector because of both failures to access
formal sectors and deliberately enter the agriculture works. Most of them are originated from various villages mostly in
northern part of West Java, such as Karawang and Indramayu Regency. In addition, our findings also indicated that the
migrants from the rural areas outside Java Island were also found. Thus, to explain the urban farming in Jakarta as a solely
urban issue will be inappropriate and, therefore, a perspective on rural-urban linkage should be more thoroughly used.
Keywords—urban agriculture, small farmer, migration, rural-urban linkage, Jakarta
A Buddhist Perspective on Global Warming-Our Irresistible Fate?

Sraman, S.
Mahachulalongkornrajavidyalaya University, Wang Noi, Ayutthaya, Thailand; shimosraman@gmail.com
Abstract—As far as it’s concerned that an issue of global warming has been debated around the world and it is bringing more
attention to the people now. This is perhaps owing to recent natural catastrophes witnessed in different parts of the planet in
which the world’s scientists have expressed their concerns about the imminent environmental crisis, believed to be caused by
humans upsetting of the natural balance. From a Buddhist perspective, in this paper will be attempted by me to consider how
the core Buddhist teachings reflect on this global issue which is threatening human wellbeing worldwide. There are many
interesting points to be considered, some of them might have already been studied by others such as scholars, researchers, or
authors. However, in this paper, I will be trying to point out which is Buddhist teachings and fatalism. So the question is raised
as follows: is global warming our irresistible fate? If so, what is the Buddhist attitude towards this fate? Furthermore, this
paper has been divided by me into four parts. To depict global warming, first, I will discuss background information regarding
the global warming phenomenon. Second part will deal with an analysis of this phenomenon according to the principle of
dependent origination, however, other Buddhist tenets will be mentioned and referenced where it seems relevant. In the third
part which is central, an argument on Buddhism and fatalism will be debated. Herein, the teaching of action will be analyzed
in comparison and contrast with the concept of fatalism. Last but least, from the proceeding discussion, this paper will
culminate with some Buddhist stances towards global warming crisis.
Keywords—environmental crisis, global warming, Buddhist teachings, dependent origination
Regional Variations in Manufacturing Productivity in India

Maiti, A.
Indian Institute of Management Kashipur, Kashipur, Uttarakhand 244713, India
abhradeep.maiti@gmail.com
Abstract—Estimating productivity is an important aspect of understanding industrial performance. Using a panel dataset for
manufacturing firms from India, I investigate the extent of regional variations in terms of manufacturing productivity. More
specifically, I look for the evidence of spatial variations in manufacturing productivity using random parameter panel data
model. This estimation technique allows me to observe inter-firm differences in terms of productivity, and then by using the
geographical information, interstate variations in manufacturing productivity is obtained. The results from this paper can be
used to create more focused policy for the development of Indian manufacturing sector.
Keywords—manufacturing productivity, Indian manufacturing sector, random parameter panel data model, spatial variation
Culture and Knowledge of Environmental Sustainability

Babazadeh, V.
Environmental Sociology, Meshginshahr, Ardabil, Iran; vahid.babazadeh1990@gmail.com
Abstract—Cultural capital and media are the main elements of culture in a society that should pave the way for developing
knowledge of environmental sustainability. One of the reasons of the environmental crisis is lack of proper connection of the
cultural elements with environmental sustainability. The attempt is made here to discover how cultural capital and the use of
media are related to citizens' knowledge of environmental sustainability. The main hypothesis confirms the positive
relationship between cultural capital and knowledge of environmental sustainability. The methodology used is a survey and
the data are collected by a researcher-made questionnaire. The statistical population was citizens of over 18 years of
Meshginshahr in Ardabil Province. Three Hundred & Eighty-two people were selected randomly by random cluster sampling
via Cochran formula. The data analysis is carried out via SPSS software. The descriptive analysis revealed that media usage
and education level do not have any influence on the awareness of concept of SD and its environmental components. Cultural
capital of the respondents is moderate. The correlation remains on average between ″awareness of concept of SD and its
environmental components ″ and the three dimension of cultural capital. Drawn upon the regression results, only five per cent

icshge.org
of the awareness of the SD and it environmental component determine cultural capital. Cronbach's alpha test was used to assess
the validity of measures.
Keywords—sustainable development, awareness of environmental sustainability, knowledge of environmental sustainability,
cultural capital, media
GPS Application on Agriculture Towards Zero Hunger for Sustainable

Development in Africa
Okosun, O.S.
Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities, Management and Social Science, Federal University, Kashere, Gombe
State, Nigeria; obohcom@fukashere.edu.ng
Abstract— One of the major goals of UN-SDG agenda is to eradicate hunger; that is zero hunger across the earth surface
especially Africa. This I believe can be achieved through advanced agricultural production for sustainable development and
GPS application has a huge role to play. GPS application is useful in many ways: farm planning, mapping of soils, farm size,
area with the highest yield and other useful component. Based on the benefit attached to GPS (Global Positioning System)
developed nations has benefited greatly from it through application. So this paper termed to address how this technology can
be useful as well help to solve the problem of agriculture in Africa that will be sustainable and result to great development by
meeting the zero hunger agenda of the UN-SDG. Conclusively, the recommendation highlighted on this paper if implemented
will reflect positively on the socio-economic development of the Africa continent.
Keywords—GPS, agriculture, hunger, sustainability, development
The Effect of Mt. Agung Volcanic Aerosol to Global Warming Based on

Analysis of Temperature and e-Folding Time
Diana, S.,* Aprilia, J., and Widyariestha, M.
Faculty of Geological Engineering, University of Padjadjaran, Indonesia; * selvia14001@mail.unpad.ac.id
Abstract—Mt. Agung (3142 masl) located in Rendang Subdistrict, Karangasem Regency, Bali at 8°20’35.92’’S and
115°30’25.41’’E. Mt. Agung largest eruption was last recorded on March 17th 1963 while the volcanic activity continued until
January 1964. The March 1963 eruption ejected volcanic ashes up to 23 kilometer to the atmosphere. Other than ashes, the
eruption also expelled some amount of SO2 gasses that then reacted into aerosol (H2SO4) in the stratosphere. This research
aims to understand the effect of volcanic aerosol to climate and global warming. Analysis from temperature comparison and e-
folding time was made to correlate the effect of aerosol to global warming. Estimation from space instrument SAGE II
(Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment-II) showed that during the eruption period of 1963-1964, Mt. Agung released 16-
30 Teragrams of aerosol with 10.3 months of e-folding time. Decrease in temperature recorded was 0.3-0.4 degree Celsius.
Comparison between Mt. Agung 1963 eruption showed that volcanic aerosol is not capable in repressing the rate of global
warming.
Keywords—Mt. Agung, aerosol, global warming, e-folding time
Mobility delayed is mobility denied: Women’s life opportunities at stake

due to poor Urban Transport
Iqbal, S.
University of Coventry, West Midlands CV2 4FX, United Kingdom; iqbals44@uni.coventry.ac.uk
Abstract—A clear gender imbalance in urban mobility as evident in all the areas of Pakistan. Because of the lack of gender
mainstreaming, women are marginalized and are not able to realize their potentials fully. This increases with the level of
poverty and the financially disadvantaged class women, are specially and significantly unfortunate. These poor women are
not able to voice their needs while decision-making, due to social silencing and social exclusion. Besides the lack of equal
public facilities, the local attitudes towards gender shaped by cultural narrow-mindedness, further aggravates the situation
and add to the misery of this marginalized section. Lack of abstinence on the part of males sets the stage for gap in avenues
available for women. Due to the local attitudes towards gender, women cannot travel alone, especially at nights and have to
be accompanied by related men. The current research studies the gender imbalance prevalent in case of urban mobility in
contemporary Karachi (Pakistan) and analyzes the impact of this imbalance on the education and employment of women in
Karachi. It is therefore important that their needs be adequately reflected and translated in policy-making and planning
processes which would contribute towards their empowerment.

icshge.org
Removal of heavy metals by continuous electropermutation

Mehellou, A.,1 Delimi, R.,1,* Benredjem, Z.,1 Samia, S.,1 and Innocent, C.2
1
Laboratory of Water Treatment and Valorization of Industrial Wastes, Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Sciences,
Badji-Mokhtar University, Annaba, Algeria
2
Institut Européen des Membranes, Université Montpellier, France
*
rachid.delimi@univ-annaba.dz
Abstract—The aim of this work was to correlate the separation process of the metallic cations (M(II)) by electropermutation
(EP) of multications solution with the affinity of ion-exchange materials (IEMs). The obtained results show that the affinity
order is similar for all tested IEMs and is as follows: Pb(II)>Cd(II)>Zn(II)>Mg(II). Furthermore, the order of the transfer flux
(J) of metallic cations obtained with different tested cation-exchange membranes is identical to that encountered for the affinity
order. Further analysis of the results demonstrated that the affinity of IEMs and the transfer flux change in reverse order of
hydration ionic radius (r) of metallic cations: rMg(II)> rZn(II)≥ rCd(II)> rPb(II). During the EP, the order of metallic cations
transfer is as established previously when using different electro-regeneration cations (H+, Na+, NH4+) and different co-ions
(NO3−, Cl−, SO42−). However, the extent of the transfer flux as a function of the nature of electro-regeneration cation follows
the order: JM(II)(H+)> JM(II)(NH4+)> JM(II)(Na+). The removal rates of metallic cations vary in the range 89−99%. This work
shows that the orders of the IEMs affinity and the transfer are mainly determined by the properties of metallic cations such as
the hydration ionic radius. Nevertheless, the importance of the fixation and the transfer of metallic cations depend on the IEMs
nature.
Keywords—ion exchange membrane, electrodialysis, electropermutation, heavy metals

icshge.org
Chapter 6.

icshge.org
Urban ventilation and mortality in Hong Kong

Goggins, W.,* Wang, P., Ren, C., Lau, K., and Chan, E.
School of Public Health and Primary Care, CUHK, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, New Territories, Hong Kong;
*
wgoggins@cuhk.edu.hk
Abstract—Previous studies examining associations between urban design characteristics and health outcomes have mostly
focused on relationships between mortality or self-reported health and green space, urban heat islands, or population density.
The ability of prevailing winds to penetrate into urban areas can influence urban heat island alleviation and dispersal of air
pollutants. In this ecological study we examine small geographic area associations between urban ventilation, as measured by
frontal area density (FAD), or open-space ratio (OSR) and mortality from several causes in Hong Kong from 2008-2014,
adjusting for age, gender, and area-level socioeconomic status, population density and green space, using negative binomial
regression models with generalized estimating equations used to account for area-level correlation. We found that higher
(lower) values of FAD (OSR), corresponding to less ventilation, were significantly associated with higher mortality from all-
causes, and for cause-specific mortality for circulatory and respiratory diseases with estimated risk increases ranging from 5-
21%. Improving urban ventilation may improve health in densely populated urban areas.
PURPOSE
The goal of the study was to learn more about the potential health impact of urban ventilation in a very densely populated
compact Asian city, with a population largely concentrated in areas with a high density of tall buildings.
BACKGROUND AND SIGNIFICANCE

As a densely populated city with an increasing population, Hong Kong face challenges in deciding how best to utilize limited
space. Hong Kong has a tropical climate with hot and humid summers and urban heat island effects are a concern. Air quality
is also a problem. The ambient winds in Hong Kong are strong but can be blocked by buildings built too close together. Our
previous work found area level associations between higher mortality and higher urban heat island intensity and less green
space. Here we examined area level associations between urban ventilation and mortality.
METHODS
This was an ecological study examining areal associations between mortality (2008-2014) and two measures of urban
ventilation, frontal area density (FAD) and open-space ratio (OSR), while adjusting for age, gender, and area level population
density and socioeconomic indicators. Negative binomial regression models were used with age, gender, and cause-specific
mortality counts for each small area as the outcome, corresponding log (population) as the offset, and FAD or OSR, and
confounders as predictors.
RESULTS
Higher (lower) values of FAD (OSR), corresponding to less ventilation, were significantly associated with higher mortality
from all-causes, and for cause-specific mortality for most specific common causes of death with estimated risk increases
ranging from 5-21%.
CONCLUSIONS
Better urban ventilation may have the potential to reduce the occurrence of adverse health outcomes, including mortality.
Sustainable practices and the use of personal protective equipment on

rural properties producing tobacco
Pires. V.,* Nassinhack, V., Fantinel, R., Lhamby, A., and Moraes, B.
Universidade Federal Do Pampa, São Gabriel, Rio Grande Do Sul 97300000, Brazil; * victorpires@usp.br
Abstract—As the organization practices of its activities can cancel the conditions of an atmosphere more and more harmful to
the environment with the indiscriminate use of pesticides. Among the cultures where the use of the pesticide occurs in an
expressive manner as tobacco crops. From the context, the present work had the objective of using individual protection
equipment (PPE) from the tobacco producers in Linha Grande, in the municipality of Dona Francisca - RS. The study was
qualitative, using a questionnaire, based on the options of responses to different types of data collection instrument on the use
of pesticides and intoxication; accidents at work and the use of personal protective equipment (PPE) in the cultivation of
tobacco. It was evidenced that all the countries interviewed made use of agrochemicals in their fields of tobacco. The
occurrences were reported at the time of harvest and stings of venomous animals. Concerning the use of PPE, which is slightly
accepted by the tobacco growers; due to the use of equipment, because they consider it uncomfortable, making it difficult for
farmers to carry out their activities in the production of tobacco.

icshge.org
Keywords—agrotoxic, labor accident, farmers
PURPOSE
The objective was to investigate the use of Individual Protection Equipment (PPE) by tobacco producers in Linha Grande, in
the municipality of Dona Francisca - Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.

In the municipality of Dona Francisca, the tobacco industry is very present in rural areas mainly in small farms where labor is
essentially familiar. The activity of tobacco has always been seen as a profitable activity for rural families, however, it should
be emphasized that this crop, brings many health damages, mainly due to exposure to pesticides.
METHOD
The study was approached in a qualitative way, using a questionnaire, with structured questions containing options of answers
in multiple choices as an instrument of information collection. The variables analyzed were: use of pesticides, intoxications,
work accidents and the use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) in tobacco cultivation.
RESULTS
Through the applied questionnaire it was verified that all the interviewees use some type of pesticides or insecticides in the
process of the tobacco production, despite this fact, only two interviewees said they had suffered some type of intoxication
after the use of pesticides, having as symptoms, dizziness and nausea. As for the use of PPE altogether only four do, the others
(7) only use parts such as: gloves, overalls, cap / hat, masks, boots and glasses. Of the 12 interviewees, eight claimed to have
suffered some type of accident only at the time of harvesting such as cuts of machetes and stings from venomous animals. All
interviewed farmers know about the importance of using PPE, but the vast majority of respondents (8) claim the discomfort
and rejection of this equipment due to the composition of the material used in the production of PPE.
CONCLUSION
According to the data obtained, most of the interviewees suffered accidents at harvest time. As for the complete use of the
Personal Protective Equipment was little expressive among the producers, only 33.33% make full use. It is worth noting that
most of the interviewed farmers use part of the PPE, because it is difficult and disruptive in the tobacco production and harvest
stages, as well as because of the thermal discomfort due to the material that is made some equipment. There is a need to develop
projects that use new materials and that are specific to each work process, considering all their potential health benefits and
risks.
Visual configurations of flower compositions in urban environment

Petrova, V.T., and Shahanova, M.B.
University of Forestry, 10 Kliment Ohridsky Blvd., Sofia 1797, Bulgaria; velizara_95@abv.bg (V.T.C.);
mariela.shahanova@mail.bg (M.B.S.)
Abstract—In recent years, two design trends have emerged in the urban landscape design concerning the flower arrangements. One is
related to eco-design and aims to achieve sustainable environmental development, while the other is related to the increase of luxury in
public spaces as a result of a general increase in the standard of living. These two trends reflect on a different vision of the floral compositions,
which could change smoothly from one extreme to the other. In this research eight visual configurations are proposed for floral compositions
defined by the following characteristics and their variations: flower coverage density (dense and loose-textured), colour intensity (strong and
weak) and composition outlines (precise outline and mixture of species). The ornamental effect and the aesthetic value of each of the eight
variants in the urban environment are assessed. This survey further analyses how the vision of the vegetation and the vision of the
architectural elements in the environment correspond to each other. Recommendations have been made on the visual effect of flower
compositions in specific urban situations.
Keywords—flower features, visual configurations, urban environment
GOAL
The goal of this work is to classify the visual configurations in flower compositions, taking into account three main features
(density of flower coverage, intensity of color, and outline and pattern of composition) and assessing how they would fit in
urban environments.
BACKGROUND AND SIGNIFICANCE.

Visual sustainability is associated not only with the space-time characteristics of the sustainable development of the territories
but also with the way they are perceived by humans. In the aspect of the processes of globalization that are going on, this issue
should be given more attention [1]. The landscape architecture in an urban environment operates with two major factors -

icshge.org
space design and psychological impact on visitors. Some recent researches have shown that the main sensory organ for the
enjoyment of plants for all age groups of visitors is vision, and the most influential quality of the vegetation is the color [2][3].
The structure of the inflorescence has a major significance concerning the ornamental effect of plants. Some flowers have
petals in many distinctive shapes, others have many distinctive colors, while some have very distinctive (unique) textures, and
the visual effect is due to the combination of these properties. [3] [4]. It must be carefully considered the way that the flowers
could be used in an urban area which is rich in shapes, volumes, color, and functions. It has been shown that flowers have
immediate and long-term effects on health and well-being, emotional responses, mood, social behavior, and people's memory
[4] [5] [6].
METHODS
The ornamental effect of flowers is determined mostly by the color of the flowers and the foliage. Basically, two characteristics
define the visual qualities based on coloring – density of the flower coverage and the intensity of the color spot. And the visual
impact of the species combined in a composition, with respect to their mutual location, can be characterized by the way they
have been arranged in a composition – in one-colour spots or mixed. The classification of flower compositions based on their
visual qualities was developed using three criteria, each one in two variations:
 A - density of flower coverage
o A1 dense flower coverage – the flowers or the inflorescences are located nearby the foliage and cover the vegetative
mass of the plant
o A2 loose-textured flower coverage – the flowers or inflorescences are located at a distance apart from each other, mixed
with air and foliage
 B - intensity of the color
o B1 intense, bright colors.
o B2 low intensity of the color, muted, pale colors
 C - outline and pattern of the composition
o C1 compositions with a precise outline and pattern
o C2 lack of pattern (mixing – the random planting of individuals or small groups of plants of different types of flowers
within the common form).
There are eight combinations that cover opposing visual effects and the transition between them.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

A1 B1 C1 - A composition of species forming dense flower coverage with intensive colors and a precise pattern. It’s associated
with formal, seasonal flower layout, using hybrids and cultivars with highly ornamental qualities that needs an intensive
maintenance. In the general composition of space, they act as an accent thus highlighting the existing architectural elements.
They attract the attention of the visitors and have an activating and stimulating impact.
A1 B1 C2 – A representative type of a flower layout with an intensive effect through color without the precision of the pattern.
They are perceived as a homogeneous element.
A1 B2 C1 - Unobtrusive in color, but structured and with a dense colorful spot. Rather passive as an impact.
A1 B2 C2 - A dense colorful spot with very low intensity of the colors and a lack of pattern; would be good when used with
distinctively structured surrounding spaces (as volumes and color). Monotone impact.
A2 B1 C1 - A composition of species with a loose-textured flower coverage in combination with their intense colors and
precise patterns has an attractive, attention-enhancing impact, but not as categorically as A1 B1 C1.
A2 B1 C2 - Mixed species with intense color, but loose-textured flower coverage. This combination creates a smooth transition
between the elements of the environment. Unobtrusive but attractive visual effect. Moderately intensive as an impact.
A2 B2 C1 - In this combination, the first two features soften and largely dominate the third one. It may have the function of
transition between elements in the urban area softening the effect of the graphical aspect. Weak effect of the composition.
A2 B2 C2 - a composition of species with loose-textured flower coverage, slightly intensive colors and lack of patterns.
Associated with extensive type of coloring using sustainable and environmentally tolerant species with non-intrusive vision,
often natural species. In the general layout of space, they act as a complementary transition between the elements. In terms of
the psycho-emotional effect they have on people, such types of compositions can be defined as passive and relaxing.
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The approaches concerning the flower design in the urban spaces are two: based on the principle of similarity to the
environment through color and density, appropriate shape and pattern or based on the principle of the contrast. In the second
case, it is necessary to have at least two groups of elements to contrast to each other in the composition [7] or the visual quality
should be based on a border between two opposite poles [8]. It can be summarized that the visual configuration of the flower
composition needs to comply with the following criteria:
 Spatial and visual environmental parameters
 Space function
 Purpose and duration of residence
 Characteristics of potential visitors,
The principle of similarity or contrast may be approached at the discretion of the designer and depending on the particular
situation.

icshge.org
REFERENCES
[1] V. Shahanov, G. Tzolova, Landscape colour characteristics research in order to increase the landscape architecture projects visual sustainability,
Management and Sustainable Development, 2011, 121-126.
[2] Ozer B., M. E. Baris, 2012, Landscape Design and Park Users’ Preferences, World Conference on Psychology and Sociology, Procedia - Social and
Behavioral Sciences 82 (2013) 604 – 607 (www.sciencedirect.com)
[3] M.E. Nilsback, Zisserman A., 2006, A Visual Vocabulary for Flower Classification, Robotics Research Group, IEEE Computer Society Conference on
Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition - Volume 2, Pages 1447-1454 (https://dl.acm.org/citation)
[4] Stoycheva M, Kabatliyska Zl., 2002, Influence of floral compositions upon humans psychological status, The 14-thannual meeting of ECLAS is being
hosted by the Budapest, Hungary ,231-237, Pages 231
[5] M. Pazhouhanfar, Role of Space Qualities of Urban Parks on Mood Change, Psychological Studies, March 2018, Volume 63, Issue 1, pp 25–31,
https://link.springer.com/article
[6] A. Tuğrul, Akay P., 2015, Relationships between the visual preferences of urban recreation area users and various landscape design elements, Urban
Forestry & Urban Greening, Volume 14, Issue 3, 2015, Pages 573-582.
[7] Shahanov, V., 2011. Study of possibilities for achieving artistic expressiveness of the landscape architectural composition. Jubilee scientific
conference “60 years Education in Landscape Architecture” 21st April, 2011, University of Forestry, Sofia, Bulgaria 166-170 (ISBN 978-954-90425-6-
6).
[8] Shahanov, V. 2012. The strong composition as a basis for creating powerful landscapes. ECLAS 2012 Conference ‘The Power of Landscape’, 19-22
September 2012, Warsaw, Poland, 492-496 (ISBN 978-83-935884-0-4).
How women of fertile age understand the notion of “family” Case study:
Bucharest, Romania
Preda, M.,* Mareci, A., Tudoricu, A., Taloş, A-M., Elena, B., Vijulie, I., and Lequeux, A-I.D.
Faculty of Geography, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania; * mihaela.preda@geo.unibuc.ro
Abstract—Family represents a variable which has been functioning in conditions of acute population ageing. Analysis of
family must consider all the factors that influence its dynamic both structurally and in terms of size. The traditional family is
being reformed with women status continuously fluctuating and having to adapt to various social, political and economic
changes. In this context, the aim of the study is to identify the perception of fertile-aged women on family as well as measuring
the impact of the sustained efforts for redefining the concept. The objectives consist in: determining the preconditions for
starting a family, establishing its ideal structure and characteristics, identifying how pregnancy influences women social and
economic development. The authors used the inquiry method as part of their research methodology with 505 semi-structured
interviews done on a sample size population (women aged 15 to 49) living in Bucharest and an SPSS analysis of the data
gathered. The results of the study mapped how women of fertile age perceive: family; the conditions and motivations for
starting one; factors that condition the number of children they desire or have and the manner in which the shifting perception
over the concept has influenced population’s demographic behaviour in general.
SUMMARY
Family represents a variable that is currently functioning in the developing and developed world in conditions of acute
population ageing. It is being reformed, with women status continuously fluctuating and them having to adapt to various social,
political, and economic changes. In this context, the study aims to identify the perception of fertile-aged women on family as
well as to measure the impact of the existing sustained efforts for redefining the concept. The objectives include determining
the preconditions for starting a family, analysing family size, identifying how pregnancy influences women development. The
authors realised 499 semi-structured interviews done on a sample size population (women aged 15 to 49) living in Bucharest,
followed by a SPSS analysis. The preconditions for starting a family refer to the ideal age of marriage, an education, a career,
and a stable income or home ownership. The ideal age of marriage registered at 25-30 years by 54.5% of the respondents, <
25 years by 18%, and 16.2% of respondents consider it to be after 30 years. Today’s trend is for women to invest more in their
own education in order to ensure well-paid jobs, which requires a lot of time and personal sacrifices, a phenomenon that is
more and more prevalent among women in Romania (Beck & Beck-Gernsheim, 2005; Celik, 2018; Corselli-Nordblad and
Gereoffy, 2015; Lesthaeghe & Neels, 2002; Paping, 2007). The second objective of the study is an analysis of the perception
of family size. The majority of the respondents (35.9%), do not have children, and 31.7% of them have only one. Respondents
who say they have two children represent 24.8%, and the percentage of those who have 3, 4 or more drops significantly below
10%. The results show that most of those who have no children are presently reluctant to have children in the future (71.5%
negative responses to 12.3% positive responses). Respondents reasoned not wanting (more) children by referring to the lack
of money, age, lack of time, significant responsibilities or saying that their current number of children is enough. Those who
intend to have (more) children motivate this with the desire to have a large family, the support that the children can offer to
their own brothers or parents in the future, or mentioned that 2 children are an ideal number. The ideal family size is 2 children
for 59.5% of the respondents, 1 child for 19%, 3 children for 12.2%. 5.4% think the ideal family does not include any children.
The survey showed that 64.5% of respondents considered it an obstacle to their personal development. When it came to
defining priorities in their adolescence and youth responses centred on education and personal development in 91.2% of cases.
The definition of an ideal family is a combination of three ideas: emotional features; structure; and to a lesser degree financial
security. The results showed a slight preference (38%) for defining the ideal family in terms of emotional features, with
concepts such as love, respect, understanding, good communication, mutual support painting an image of peace. Moreover,

icshge.org
while important for both categories, unmarried women tend to value emotional features more than married ones. The second
most important feature (33%) was structure, meaning a father mother and one or more children. The idea of financial security
is present in 11.2% of the answers but never alone, which is a sign that apart from the income, which is preferable to be
“sufficient”, the ideal family needs to encompass more elements. The study analysed the target population perception and
corroborated it with the realities of the Romanian society where the age of marriage is below the European one, and the number
of children per family is decreasing.
Analysis of the disposal of packaging of agrochemicals in the

municipality of São Gabriel/RS according to CONAMA Resolution
465/2014
Pires, V.,* Sucky, A., Borba, L., Lhamby, A., and Moraes, B.
Universidade Federal Do Pampa, São Gabriel, Rio Grande Do Sul 97300000, Brazil; * victorpires@usp.br
Abstract—The research, registration, manufacture, transportation, storage, trade and use of pesticides, as well as the return
and final disposal of packaging are processes regulated by law, due to the great impact these substances generate on the
environment and the risk to the environment. health of both those who handle these products and those who consume
contaminated food. Disposal of empty pesticide packaging, if done improperly, causes a number of environmental problems
and exposes the population to risks. This Case Study analyzed the disposal of pesticide containers from the Municipality of
São Gabriel / RS in the light of Res. CONAMA 465/2014. The research was done by observation of the collection point,
analysis of bibliography and semi-structured interview with the President of the Association of Distributors of Agricultural
Defenses of São Gabriel. The collection point is not in accordance with RESOLUTION 465/2014; therefore, it is urgently
suggested to seek legal compliance, generating benefits for the population and the environment. The data obtained in the
research show that the municipality of São Gabriel is a major consumer of agrochemicals, requiring public policies focused
on environmental education and environmental management with respect to the use of these substances.
Keywords—agrotoxic, discard, packaging, sustainability
PURPOSE
The main objective of this case study was to analyze if the process of disposal of pesticides in the Municipality of São Gabriel
meets the legal requirements established in Res. CONAMA 465/2014.

In the city of São Gabriel there are currently 9 companies accredited to ADDASG that use the collection point of empty
pesticide containers, that is, the companies that sell pesticides and the like, in the city, must make available and manage a place
to receive the packages after the use of the product, which must be duly licensed and following all the technical standards
required by law. Regarding the quantity of packaging, the São Gabriel collection station sends annually 90 to 100 tons of
empty agrochemical packaging and the like for the plant of Dom Pedrito, the plant receives around 500 tons per year, which
indicates that the municipality is a major consumer of these substances.
Competitiveness through renewable energies in the rice industrialization

process
Silva, M.,* Borges, D., Souza, A., Pires, V., and Lhambi, A.
Universidade Federal do Pampa, São Paulo, Vargem Grande Paulista 06730000, Brazil; maickbsilva@gmail.com
Abstract—The search for technological innovations within organizations has become an important factor in aggregating
economic benefits and sustainable competitive advantages in the market. The use of waste which would be discarded is one of
the ways to pursue this innovation. The ongoing growth countries will lead to an extreme increase in energy, materials and
food consumption. To meet this demand, it will require the rational use of waste generated by agricultural and industrial
processes, transforming them into economically competitive energy, a factor that helps the development of sustainability.
Specifically in the rice industry, all the residues generated from the by-product of the husks can be used in different ways:
from the burning, energy is obtained, and from the residues from the firing, comes a silica with innumerable purposes of use.
The organization studied seeks maximum efficiency and is concerned with the impact of its activities on the environment, for
it, they use technology for sustainable practical. Through a descriptive case of study and field research, we sought to analyze
the structuring of the company in the search for technologic innovation.

icshge.org
PURPOSE
The objective of the study is to analyze the introduction of new technologies and socioenvironmental and economic impacts
in the process of rice industrialization in an agroindustry in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.

New environmental practices are gaining importance in terms of sustainable organizational development. The use of
environmentally correct technologies impacts production processes and is reflected in the organization's economic objectives.
Therefore, in order to mitigate the amount of husks residue that is daily generated in the process of industrialization of rice,
the company started to use a system to neutralize the generation of waste: through the burning of the rice husk, started to
generate electric energy and, from the remaining ashes, the silica was extracted.
METHOD
The methodology used in this study is qualitative and descriptive. The data were collected through interviews, revealing the
economic advantages of new technologies. The data obtained allowed to infer the future prospects of income, as well as allowed
to outline the new structure of the company and the ways in which the company seeks maximum efficiency in each stage of
production.
RESULTS
Concern about the environment is increasingly inserted in the daily lives of the world's populations. Alongside this, the
environmental issue is a mandatory presence in the concerns and strategies of managers. The collected data show that the
company was able to avail the moment and became a pioneer in adopting sustainable practices in its production processes. The
implementation of a system for the use of rice husks as a source of electricity, material for drying and parboiling of rice, and
the use of the ashes from these processes for the extraction of silica results in economic and environmental benefits. The system
used presupposes constant updating to remain competitive in the market. In addition to the innovative practices, the company
was concerned about the environmental impact of their activities: started using hydro cyclones and filters to clean the air in all
exhaust fans of the industrial park. Connected, practices have led to economic and differentiation advantages.
CONCLUSION
The new technologies introduced by the company demonstrate the viability of the system used and its impact in economic
terms. Technological innovations are reflected in competitiveness and are opportunities to change outdated structures. In this
case, the result is explicit: the use of technology meant the end of the payment of electricity to power companies and the end
of production waste. Excited by the results, the company began to make efforts to obtain energy efficiency throughout its
industrialization process.
Discussion of the practices of environmental management in the rice

sector in a socio-environmental perspective
Borges, D.,* Silva, M., Souza, A., Pires, V., and Lhambi, A.
*
Universidade Federal do Pampa, Salvador, Bahia, 41915-410, Brazil; deboramob17@gmail.com
Abstract—Organizations have been under social pressure to insert themselves into the socio-environmental context in an
appropriate way, and these do not only cover economic growth but also include the environmental issue as an element that
favors organizational growth. Over the years, the exponential increase in population and anthropic activities, man has evolved
into the notion of exhaustible resources. Exacerbated economic growth to the disrespect of natural limits does not justify the
growth of the corporation, when socio-environmental factors are considered, results in the promotion of sustainability. The
objective of this work is to detect management practices in a rice industry together with the results of the same perspective
from the socio-environmental perspective. The research method used is the Survey, of descriptive convenience. Data were
collected through interviews with employees and owners of the enterprise. The results discuss the methods employed
demonstrating the procedures were awarded as well as being financially accessible; the management of the corporation,
encourages the actions of the population so that the decisions taken are democratic, bringing employees closer to the mass,
favoring the growth of the company next to the objectives to be achieved.
PURPOSE
To identify the environmental management practices of an agroindustry in the process of rice industrialization and the results
of these practices under a socio-environmental perspective. Confirm the evolution of the company until the decision to
implement environmental management; to identify the perception of employees in relation to the environmental management
practices implemented; to verify the benefits obtained by the company in socio-environmental terms with the environmental
management practices adopted.

icshge.org

Since its creation in 1960, Urbano Agroindustrial expands its activities nationwide. It was the first rice processing company to
receive the seal of SBC – Sociedade Brasileira de Cardiologia - since it provides products considered healthy for the heart.
The first to carry out the exchange of firewood for the rice husk to dry and parbolize the rice; first to generate electricity with
rice husks; first working with the silica extraction from the ash from the rice husk.
METHOD
The survey method was used. The data collection medium was for pre-defined and structured questions whose answers
represent the data analyzed.
RESULTS
It was verified that the concern with the environment is frequent, the organization complies with the legal regulations;
preferably uses raw material that has been obtained through good practices; inputs and technologies are aimed at minimizing
/ neutralizing eventual environmental impact; the employees are trained in order to obtain continuous improvement in
environmental issues to strengthen awareness and environmental education. The consumption of water is in function of
providing the boiler that will generate the steam and that will be responsible for the generation of electric energy, which has
as fuel the burning of the rice husk. Currently, in the harvest period, the company generates 75% of the energy consumed. At
other times of the year, the company turns out to be self-sufficient, thus, the company creates sustainable innovation.
CONCLUSION
Technology, by the organization, is an important tool for growth and opportunities to improve the structure of comparative
advantages. The democratic way in which decision-making is a hallmark of management, stimulated by the freedom to express
opinions and make suggestions. In the company, all waste has the correct destination, companies will do collection there. It
has collection points for batteries and electronics to give the correct destination as well.
Impact of an abandoned Coal Mine on groundwater chemical features (S.

Pedro da Cova, N Portugal)
Mansilha, C.,1,2,* Melo, A.,1,2 Ribeiro, J.,3 Flores. D.,4 Queirós, M.,4 and Marques, J.E.4
1
National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; * catarina.mansilha@insa.min-saude.pt
2
Requimte, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
3
Institute of Earth Sciences and Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Sciences and Technology, University of Coimbra,
Portugal
4
Institute of Earth Sciences and Department of Geosciences, Environment and Spatial Planning, Faculty of Sciences,
University of Porto, Portugal
Abstract—Coal mining activities cause worldwide important environmental impacts in coalfield surrounding areas, namely
the degradation of water resources quality and the resulting effect on biodiversity and human health.
The Douro Coalfield region, located in northern Portugal, comprises a number of mining sites including the abandoned mine
of S. Pedro da Cova, which has been exploited for nearly two centuries (1795-1970). The S. Pedro da Cova mine is located
near a population centre and social infrastructures, and is surrounded by agricultural fields. Clear signs of impact on
groundwater quality from mine drainage galleries have been observed for years, namely sulphurous odour, temperature higher
than background values and thick iron oxide deposits, which justified a more detailed hydrogeochemical study.
PURPOSE, BACKGROUND AND SIGNIFICANCE

The main objectives of this project are to identify and characterize hydrogeochemical changes induced by coal mining in the
S. Pedro da Cova region and to create a hydrogeological conceptual model of the mine. This hydrogeological research may
also trigger and support future studies in related subjects. Groundwater from S. Pedro da Cova mine drainage galleries is
currently used by local farmers for irrigation purposes without any caution regarding its chemical and biological composition.
The impact of this practice on agricultural soils and cultivated vegetables contamination is insufficiently known, and the effect
on human health is, so far, unpredictable.
METHOD
Groundwater samples from two mine drainage galleries, from a spring free from mining influence, and from surface water
points located upstream and downstream from the galleries were collected over four campaigns, from April until December
2017. Water temperature, pH and electrical conductivity were measured in situ. Laboratory analyses included the determination
of total alkalinity and total hardness, colour, turbidity, total phosphorus, total nitrogen, silica, total organic carbon, chemical
oxygen demand, major ions and metals.

icshge.org
RESULTS
The hydrogeochemical features of water affected by coal mining are distinct from water free from such influence. The overall
quality of groundwater from mine drainage galleries revealed severe contamination and, therefore, should not be used for
domestic or agricultural purposes. Water is hard in nature, with high electrical conductivity values that are indicative of
inorganic dissolved solids. The hydrogeochemical facies of groundwater from mine drainage galleries is Ca-Mg-SO4, while
the waters free from mining influence presented a Cl-Na facies. This study also revealed that impacted waters contain a higher
metal content, especially iron, manganese, nickel and arsenic that may cause various health hazards such as cancer. Iron and
manganese concentrations are almost 1000 times and 100 times above the reference samples, respectively, also affecting the
taste and colour of the water. The hydrogeochemical results clearly point out an interaction between water circulating in the
shallow rock massif and in the underground mining structures. The most important interactions encompass sulphides (from
pyrite and arsenopyrite). The higher fluoride content in groundwater from galleries, along with a temperature greater than the
mean annual air temperature is an important finding, which points to a mixture between groundwater circulating in the shallow
rock massif along the mine galleries and wells and thermomineral water following deeper circulations paths.
CONCLUSION
Mining activities may cause important impacts in water resources from the operational, economic and safety perspective. The
study results demonstrate important hydrogeochemical changes and contamination resulting from coal mining, which represent
a concern that should be of urgent societal interest given the high relevance for the region. The dissemination of the results is
expected to contribute for scientific knowledge and to provide valuable information for decision makers regarding the
mitigation or reclamation of environmental impacts.
Pastoralists’ perception of and adaptation strategies for climate change:

Associations with observed climate variability
Zhang, Q.
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal
University, Beijing 100875, China
Abstract—Although climate change is a universal phenomenon, its indicators and manifestations are entirely local, so are the
adaptation choices, strategies, and practices. Based on face-to-face interview data with 427 randomly selected pastoral
households of the Hulun Buir grassland in northern China, this study investigated their perceptions of historical climate change
and its impacts and the associations of these perceptions with observed climate change. Meanwhile, we identified pastoralist’
responses to climate change as well as barriers in the adaptation process. Using binary logistic regression models to determine
the factors that influence the choice of adaptation strategies. The results showed that pastoralist' perception of the interannual
variability of climate variables is relatively consistent with the observed meteorological data. However, seasonal rainfall
variability and drought has a profound influence on the pastoralist’ perceptions in the study region. Pastoralists’ adaptive
strategies for climate variability are composed of mainly livestock and pasture management interventions such as “purchase
fodder”, “reduce livestock”, “part-time grazing” and “rent pasture”. In addition, pastoralists identified several barriers that are
allied with adaptation practices, such as limited grassland tenure, an absence of credit, and limited access to agricultural
markets. Furthermore, the head gender, age, education and household livelihood capitals, and location were found to the key
factors in determining the choice of adaption strategies. This knowledge helps to assess the needs of adaption action and
information to improve the credibility of the policy, and then shape synergistic strategies for adaptation to reduce the
vulnerability of the livestock sector, especially, the livelihood security of smallholder pastoralists in the Hulun Buir grassland
Keywords—adaptation barriers, livelihood capital, SPEI index, pastoral households
INTRODUCTION
Although climate change is becoming a truly global social and environmental issue with vast international effects, its impacts
vary at the regional, sectorial, community, household, and individual levels. In particular, climate change could exacerbate the
vulnerabilities and inequalities of resource-dependent industries or communities in developing countries in the current and
coming decades. Since the livelihood of resource-dependent communities in developing countries depends on climate and
weather and lack resources and adaptive infrastructure. Accordingly, adaptation is necessary for agricultural practitioners.
Adaptation is not a purely rational technological process but a highly subjective process embedded in a valuable orientation in
a certain social-economic context. It is also a two-step process that involves perceiving that climate is changing and then
responding to changes through adaptation. However, individual perceptions of climate change are not always consistent with
reality, and climatic events or trends may be misinterpreted or wrongly remembered for a variety of reasons. Such discrepancies
may influence people’s risk perceptions, adaptive actions, and the degree of policy support. Therefore, supporting data on
perceptions with observed trends in hydro-climatic data establishes the legitimacy of what people have perceived. Accordingly,
the purpose of this study is to obtain a better understanding of pastoralist’ perceptions of historical climate change and how
perceptions are related to observed trends in regional climate. In addition, we aim to clarify the local strategies and influencing

icshge.org
factors of pastoralist’ adaptation to climate change, as well as identify action barriers perceived at the household level in
adaptation processes.
MATERIAL AND METHODS

Data Sources
We downloaded and analyzed data from four weather stations as shown in Figure 1 on monthly precipitation and monthly
mean temperatures for 1960–2017 from the China Meteorological Data Service Center (available at: http://data.cma.cn/en).
In addition, data were drawn from face-to-face interviews with household heads and participatory observations in July–
September 2018. The questionnaire consisted of (1) a household socio-economic profile; (2) perception of climate change and
its impact; and (3) responses to climate change and barriers in the process of adaptation. As a result, 36 representative villages
were finally chosen and the households (ranging from 10-20 households) in each village were randomly selected for survey
according to the village population composition. 427 valid questionnaires were collected.
Methods
We draw on Vicente-Serrano et al. (2010).'s calculation of the SPEI index and the method of dividing the drought level: near
normal, moderate dryness, severe dryness, extreme dryness. A binary logistic regression method was used to analyze the
factors influencing the selection of adaptation strategies. Meanwhile, a maximum likelihood method was used to estimate the
regression parameters. The explanatory variables were identified by means of a literature review and through focus group
discussions.
RESULTS
Pastoralists' perception of the interannual variability of climate variables is relatively consistent with the observed
meteorological data. However, their perceptions on seasonal climatic variability and drought are not exactly supported by the
meteorological data: “purchase fodder”, “reduce livestock”, “part-time grazing” and “rent pasture” are widely adopted by local
households to response to the effects of climate change. Pastoralists identified several barriers that are allied with adaptation
practices, such as limited grassland tenure, an absence of credit, and limited access to agricultural markets. Head gender, age,
education and household livelihood capitals, and location were the key factors in determining the choice of adaption strategies.
CONCLUSION
This results highlights that pastoralists’ perceptions about climate is likely to be reflect local issues and concerns based on the
actual impacts of climate change on their lives and livelihoods. Therefore, climate risks need to be seen in the overall context
of pastoralists’ livelihood risks. The results suggest that actively promote the marketization of grassland resource allocation,
an investment in education systems, diversification of the credit system, access to markets especially for livestock and social
protection projects for vulnerable groups are likely to enhance pastoralist’s climate change adaptations. These could be done
by the government, private sources, and by the community through developing strong linkages and partnerships among
different stakeholders.
Analysing deprivation and its consequences on population health in

special regions: Case study on the Biosphere Reserve of the Danube Delta
Mareci, A., Taloş, A-M., Preda, M., and Vijulie, I.
Faculty of Geography, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, 050107, Romania
Abstract—The notion of deprivation determines a lack or loss and has been related by sociologists to poverty, but it can be a
good indicator of general societal weaknesses that could cause, in the short or long term, lasting and serious problems. The
study aims to sensitize specialist as well as the general population about the particular needs of inhabitants in special regions
related to their health. The methodology included calculating a deprivation index by corroborating several sets of data. The
statistical analysis was completed by health surveys. The importance of this study stands in the study area itself - Danube Delta
- that, due to its tourism and overall biodiversity value has to maintain one key element about itself: its wilderness. This
unfortunately affects its inhabitants, who as the study shows are affected by several deprivation aspects with various intensities.
SUMMARY
The study followed several objectives. One of them was to evaluate the impact of socio-economic factors on the population
health care state in the Danube Delta. Another one was to analyse the relationship between socio-economic factors and the
population health care state based on specific health indicators. Lastly, the authors tried to emphasize the existing differences
in the population health care state and their territorial profile in relation to socio-economic factors. Deprivation refers to any
disadvantage that an individual of a community faces, and these disadvantages can be or social of financial/material nature
(Townsend, 1987). Compared to other European states, Romania’s population registers a precarious health state. A 2016 study

icshge.org
found that life expectancy at birth (75.1 years) has increased over recent decades but is still lower than the EU average of 80.9
years. The country registers among the highest mortality patters concerns cardiovascular disease in the EU (Vlădescu at al.,
2016). The most recent study at national level that approached the issue of health state inequalities was conducted by
Dumitrache et al. (2016), with one of the most important conclusion being that “territory has not yet been taken into account
by the medium and long term health policies.” We believe that further studies on the relation between population health state
and territorial realities in terms of accessibility and available resources will contribute to policy improvement and change. The
methodology included calculating a deprivation index by corroborating several sets of data about unemployment, inactive
population, dependents for each household, number of pensioners, illiteracy rate, percentage of population without any formal
education, percentage of women with only a primary education and women with high education degree; to which we added
information about general amenities: running water and sanitation, number of persons living in a household and person per
each room. A series of questionnaires were also applied. At a national level the socio-financial deprivation index averages at
0.383, while in the Danube Delta the situation is more difficult, as this index reaches a value of 0.451. The aggregated health
index shows that localities with a better health care are urban or located in the south of the area. Vulnerable localities include
C.A. Rosetti, Murighiol, Nufaru, Bestepe, Niculitel, Grindu. The correlation between the two indexes (the health index and
the deprivation index) is not strong (R= -0.174) but the socio-economic factors create inequalities in the population health
state. The authors concluded that preliminary results showed a significant relation between the population health state and
socio-economic factors and that education level, housing conditions and (un)employment explain the existing territorial
inequalities.
Evaluating the effect of mixed couples on residential segregation of

foreign groups in Italy: First evidences from a regional study case
Benassi, F.,1 and Naccarato, A.2
1
Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat), Rome, Italy
2
Department of Economics, University of Roma Tre, Rome, Italy
Abstract—The contribution tries to evaluate the effect that mixed couples (couples in which one member is a foreign national)
have on the level of residential segregation of foreigners’ resident in Italy: examining Tuscany region as a study case. The
issue has been studied abroad (Holloway et al 2005; Ellis et al 2007, 2012; Iceland and Nelson 2010) but, as far as we know,
has not yet been addressed with reference to the Italian case. Residential segregation is here measured by the index of
dissimilarity (ID) (Duncan and Duncan 1955). ID refers to the dimension of evenness according to the conceptual model of
segregation proposed by Massey and Denton (1988). ID is computed for each of the 287 municipalities that form Tuscany
region using data at enumeration area level for five population groups: Foreigners, Europeans, Asians, Americans and Africans.
The reference group is represented by Italians. Data from the 2011 Italian demographic census are used. ID varies from 0 (no
segregation) to 1 (maximum segregation). ID represents the endogenous variable of a regression analysis where the exogenous
variable is the proportion of mixed couples for each of the selected population group. The achieved results show the role of
mixed couples on residential segregation of foreigners and pose important reflections in terms of integration process.
PURPOSE
To evaluate the global effect of mixed couples on residential segregation of foreign population and sub groups (Asians,
Europeans, Americans and Africans) resident in Tuscany region.

Residential segregation of foreigners is a detrimental factor of the integration process. We are interested in detecting the effect
that mixed couples have on the level of residential segregation of foreigners taking as a case study the Tuscany region. This
phenomenon is quite studied abroad (Holloway et al 2005; Ellis et al 2007, 2012; Iceland and Nelson 2010). In Italy, despite
the appearance of several works concerning the residential segregation of foreigners (Benassi et al 2015, 2017), it has not yet
been addressed, as far as we know. However, the issue is crucial given the significant increase of the foreign population in
Italy (more than 5 million residents, 8.5% of the total population in 2018) and the importance of the integration process.
METHOD
Data used in the study coming from the 2011 Italian Population and Housing Census and refers to Tuscany region. Both
Italians’ and foreigners’ spatial distribution at sub municipality level have been used to compute the dissimilarity index (ID)
proposed by Duncan and Duncan (1955). ID is a well-known index and refers to the unevenness dimension of segregation in
the model of Massey and Denton (1998). ID has been computed for the five selected population groups here observed
(Foreigners, Asians, Africans, Americans, Europeans) enumerated in 2011 census in each of the 287 municipality of Tuscany
region. We take as reference distribution the one of the Italians. ID varies from 0 (no segregation) to 1 (maximum segregation).
ID is the endogenous variable of a regression model estimated by ordinary least square in which the exogenous variable is the
proportion of mixed couples. Regression analysis has been carried out for the five groups of population here observed.

icshge.org
RESULTS
The effect of the exogenous variable on the endogenous one is negative: as the number of mixed couples increases, the level
of segregation decreases. This effect is detected for foreigners as a whole and for each of the sub groups. The effect is stronger
for the population groups with higher level of dissimilarity.
CONCLUSION
The achieved results show that the increase in mixed couples leads to a weakening of the difference in territorial distribution
and therefore to greater integration (low values of ID). This is confirmed for the four sub groups: Americans, Europeans,
Africans and Asians. The effect is stronger for the population groups with higher level of dissimilarity. This means that mixed
couples phenomenon could play a crucial role in the process of integration of migrants.
REFERENCES
Benassi F., Ferrara R., Strozza S. (2015). La evolución reciente de los patrones de asentamiento de las principales comunidades de inmigrantes en Italia.
Papeles De Poblacion, 21, pp. 73-104.
Benassi F., Lipizzi S., Strozza S. (2017). Detecting Foreigners’ Spatial Residential Patterns in Urban Contexts: Two Tales from Italy. Applied Spatial Analysis
and Policy, pp. 1-21.
Duncan O. D., Duncan B. (1955). A methodological analysis of segregation indexes. American Sociological Review, 20, pp. 210-217
Ellis M., Holloway S.R., Wright R., East M. (2007). The effects of mixed-race households on residential segregation, Urban Geography, Vol. 28, Issue 6, pp.
554-577
Ellis M., Holloway S.R., Wright R., Fowler C. (2012). Agents of change: mixed-race households and the dynamics of neighborhood segregation in the United
States, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Vol. 102, Issue 3, pp. 549-570
Holloway S.R., Ellis M., Wright R., Hudson M. (2005) Partnering ‘out’ and fitting in: residential segregation and the neighborhood contexts of mixed-race
households, Population, space and place, Vol.11, Issue 4, pp. 299-324
Iceland J., Nelson K.A. (2010). The Residential Segregation of Mixed-Nativity Married Couples, Demography, 47, 4, pp. 869-893
Massey D. S., Denton N. A. (1988). The dimensions of residential segregation. Social Forces, 67, 2, pp. 281-315.
Determinants of employment in the Northern Cape?

Kleinsmith, D.,* Guqa, A., and Motoma, P.
Statistics South Africa, Kimberley, Northern Cape, South Africa; * deonk@statssa.gov.za
Abstract—South Africa has a persistent high unemployment rate since democracy with the less educated, females, and youth
being significantly affected. This research paper determines the role of sex, age, education, and geographic locations on
employment in order to determine the ideal factors that favours employment using the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS)
data of 2015 and applies a logistic regression model to estimate the determinants of employment in the Northern Cape. The
results confirm that higher education improves chances of finding employment and it shows discriminatory evidence against
female participation in the labour market. The results further show that the adult population is more likely to be employed than
the youth age group and that proportionally, employment prospects are higher in rural areas than in urban areas in the province.
PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

The purpose of the study is to establish the determinants of employment in the Northern Cape using age, sex, education level,
and geographic location as key variables. With an above average unemployment rate of the Province, various government
interventions have been unsuccessful in addressing this problem and determining the factors that favours employment will
inform policy decision making for targeted programmes.

South Africa have persistent high unemployment rates drawn along sex and racial lines (Ranchhod, 2010) since the dawn of
democracy. Several studies assert that improved educational levels have the potential to improve chances of securing
employment (Wambugu, 2011; Bhorat et al, 2017; Moses, 2011; Branson et al, 2013; Bhorat et al, 2014). Males and the adult
population is likely to be employed than females and the youth population. Studies have found that gender inequalities in
labour markets have a negative effect on economic growth (Kabeer, 2012; Klasen et al, 2009) and it is thus of vital importance
for policymakers to have a strategy in place to reduce gender inequality where it occurs. Northern Cape is also mainly a rural
Province and a rural-urban migration phenomenon will have significant negative implications especially for food security
where populations are drawn from the farm (rural) areas to the urban areas.
METHODS
The study uses panel household data from the 2015 Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) conducted by Statistics South
Africa (Stats SA). The dataset draws individual records of sampled households in South Africa and its provinces (SPSS file
format extracted from Nesstar), and hence figures indicate the number of cases found in the data file. A logistic regression
model is used to predict categorical variables from a set of predictor variables (Wuensch, 2014) using the employed and
unemployed population only.

icshge.org
RESULTS
The model shows that females have lower ODDS ratios compared to males (0.591, 0.579, 0.643 and 0.751 for Q1, Q2, Q3 and
Q4 of 2015 respectively) signifying that females are less likely to be employed compared to their male counterparts.
Furthermore, the adult population aged 35-64 years is more likely to be employed compared to youth. The analysis also reveals
that attaining a higher level of educational results in the likelihood of being employed. In terms of geographic location, the
model shows that farming (rural) areas (with ODDS ratio of 3.274, 1.695, 3.745, and 3.857) displays a higher likelihood to be
employed than any other settlement type (urban, traditional).
CONCLUSION
The study found that education (especially tertiary education) is a strong determinant of the labour market outcomes with
respect to employment and more significant than any other variable. Thus, policies to address the unemployment plague in the
Northern Cape should be targeting education as a means to improve the lives of the people. Much need to be done to improve
youth and female participation in the employment market and this study have provided useful evidence to a more targeted
policy approach.
Possibilities for Artificial Breeding of the Parnassius apollo L. (Apollo

Butterfly) on Sedum maximum (L.) Suter and Sedum album L. in a Park
Environment
Namliev, V.,1 Marinov, Y.,2 and Kabatliyska, Z.1
1
University of Forestry, 10 Kliment Ohridsky Blvd., Sofia 1797, Bulgaria
2
Nature Park Vitosha, Bulgaria, Project “Restoration of the population of the Apollo butterfly” No. 5103020-116-54
“Realization of priority activities of the Management Plan of Nature Park Vitosha – phase II”
Abstract—In previous studies the team improved a method for breeding of the increasingly rare and threatened Apollo butterfly
in artificial and semi natural conditions with very low mortality. Based on this achievement, here we suggest a project for
artificial breeding of Apollo butterfly in two models for park landscaping, with a suitable combination of genus Sedum species
– the primary larvae food plants of this butterfly with high decorative function. Thus, the project not only provides attractive
park area but have an added value with conservational significance offering possibilities for restocking or reintroduction of
populations of Apollo butterfly in appropriate areas.
Keywords—landscaping, butterfly conservation, decorative plants, biodiversity

Since the last century, the populations of one of the most beautiful and largest butterflies in Europe have been decreasing (by
30% for the last 10 years), and the species is about to become extinct in many areas, which is an irreversible loss of subspecies
with characteristic genotypes. i In many European countries, including Bulgaria, it is protected by law which defends the Apollo
butterfly, a temptation for the collectors-poachers: it is included in the Red List of the Threatened Animals IUCN, the Red
Data Book of European Butterflies, Appendix II of the Berne Convention CITES. Once typical for Vitosha Nature Park in
Bulgaria, the species disappeared from the mountain and its surroundings decades ago. Unlike some European projects of short
duration, there are successful long-term species restoration programs in Poland, in Pieniny National Park and Lower Silesia. ii
Based on research on the food preferences of the larvae iii and the analysis of the “gut” enzymes found in them, iv the Polish
research group brought about improvements to the artificial rearing and concluded that the local subspecies (Parnassius apollo
L. ssp. Frankenbergeri) is a telephiophage – the most numerous population can be obtained by rearing the larvae on Sedum
(Telephium) maximum (L.) Suter (SM). In general, the reintroduction in Pieniny National Park has been successful, however,
some unexpected developmental problems appeared: butterflies with malformed wings occurred frequently in the population
living in this natural habitat, and particularly among those reared under semi natural conditions (fenced by a net). The research
group carefully analyzed various reasons for these malformations: v genetic, biochemical, and microbiological (lack of the
characteristic of the healthy butterflies prokaryotic symbiont Wolbachia). vi
METHOD
From 2012 to 2015 a project aiming at the restoration of the species by means of reintroduction was carried out in Bulgaria
and the possibilities for more successful rearing of Parnassius apollo L. ssp. rhodopensis (PA) on genus Sedum sp. in an
artificial environment were studied. It was found that in artificial environment the Bulgarian subspecies also feeds a lot more
successfully when SM is present, whereas with other food plants death rates are higher. We hypothesized that SM would be a
better food plant for the larvae not because PA is a telephiophage but on account of the specificity of its nutrients. We also
discovered that the quantity of the glycosides increases, especially where there are aphids and the larvae often swallow them
together with the leaves. vii A comparative chemical analysis of a few types of sedum, including Sedum album L. (SA) and SM
had shown also that SM has higher content of glycosides, especially in the presence of aphids. Besides the increased nutritive

icshge.org
quality of the plants thanks to some aphids, a considerable improvement of the method of artificial rearing of PA was brought
by introducing dry stems of SM of last year, whose seeds are rich in polyphenols with antimicrobial effect. viii
RESULTS
On the basis of the ornamental performance of genus Sedum, we suggest two models for park landscaping with a combination
of SM and SA and artificial breeding of PA. In the first case, the artificial rearing of PA will occur inside of an attractive
visitors’ cultivation building (the park areas planted with SM and SA will serve as a resource of larval food plants), and the
larvae in the last stage will be transported to natural environment for restocking or reintroduction of populations of PA in
appropriate areas. In the second case, the rearing of the larvae until the imago stage will be carried out directly in the park
areas (vertical panels will be placed) ix and the butterflies will be captured on species of the genus Onopordum L. (nectar plant
for the imago of PA), planted in the convenient parts of the park areas. x
CONCLUSION
Besides the aesthetical function, the suggested projects have conservational significance xi and offer possibilities for restocking
or reintroduction of populations of PA in appropriate areas. The two models of rearing in park territories are shown on a 3D
plan.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors are grateful to the project BG05M2OP001-2.009-0034 BG05M2OP001-2.009-0034-C01 "Support for the
Development of Scientific Capacity in the University of Forestry", financed by the Science and Education for Smart Growth
Operational Program (2014-2020) and co-financed by the European Union through the European structural and investment
funds.
ENDNOTES
i
The limiting factors are complex but relatively well studied.
ii
Witkowski Z, Adamski P, Kosior A, Plonka P. Extinction and reintroduction of Parnassius apollo in the Pieniny National Park (Polish Carpathians).
Biologia 52 (1997) 199-208.
iii
Nakonieczny M, Kedziorski A. Feeding preferences of the Apollo butterfly (Parnassius apollo ssp. frankenbergeri) larvae inhabitating the Pieniny Mts
(southern Poland). C. R. Biologies 328 (2005) 235–242.
iv
Nakonieczny M, Michalczyk K, Kedziorski A. Midgut glycosidases activities in monophagous larvae of Apollo butterfly, Parnassius apollo ssp.
Frankenbergeri, C. R. Biologies 329 (2006) 765–774.
v
Pierzynowska K, Skowron Volponi M, Węgrzyn G. Multiple factors correlating with wing malformations in the population of Parnassius apollo
(Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) restituted from a low number of individuals: A mini review. Insect Sci. (2017) doi: 10.1111/1744-7917.12554.
vi
Łukasiewicz K, Sanak M, Węgrzyn G. A lack of Wolbachia-specific DNA in samples from apollo butterfly (Parnassius apollo, Lepidoptera: Papilionidae)
individuals with deformed or reduced wings. Journal of Applied Genetics. Vol. 57, no. 2, (2016), 271-274
vii
Which is logical, especially considering the fact that during their earliest a certain percent of the larvae exhibit cannibalistic behavior.
viii
It is observed in the Scandinavian countries that a limitation of the populations of PA is caused by a bacterial infection, whose effect is enhanced by the
acid rains – only populations residing in a habitat with a limestone ground are preserved.
ix
Larvae have underdeveloped crochets on their prolegs and can't climb on a smooth upright surface and low vertical fences will hinder them to come out of
the park area.
x
The steadiness of the populations is directly dependent upon the combined presence in the habitat of the food plants of the caterpillars and the nectar plants
for further feeding of the imago. The studies show that the density of the food plants in the environment is a condition for a steady population.
xi
Dolek M, Geyer A. Conserving biodiversity on calcareous grasslands in the Franconian Jura by grazing: A comprehensive approach. Biological
Conservation 104(3) (2002) 351-360.

icshge.org
Chapter 7.

icshge.org
Special Issue 2
December 2018
ISSN 2036-7910
Imprint: PCS Publishing, Co.
SPECIAL ISSUE 2 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HUMAN GEOGRAPHY AND ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES DECEMBER 2018
COVER PAGE
The cover page for this special issue of the International Journal of Human
Geography and Environmental Studies was selected in accordance with the
Editor’s Choice and committee board. The authors of this paper have
highlighted key aspects for the better understanding geographic information
systems site selection of fire stations within Tehran, Iran. Proper distribution
of fire stations is essential in order to provide relief to vulnerable areas in times
of crisis: correct, accurate and scientific site selection of the fire stations is
examined. The mapping taken from the article is Figure 2 which relays 3-
minute coverage points throughout the city.
PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

All articles published within this Special Issue have been taken from the
submitted articles to the 2nd International Conference on Sustainability, Human
Geography and Environment 2018 (ICSHGE18) [www.icshge.org]. This
Special Issue is being included as a chapter in the Conference Proceedings.
PCS PUBLISHING, CO. DISCLAIMER

PCS Publishing, Co. has agreed to publish these articles with the
disclaimer that if there is more than one author of a paper, the nominated
author(s) is/are required to seek, attain and keep a record of all the
submitted emails of the manuscript to ICSHGE18 so all other author(s) can
be informed of their work being published within this Special Issue. PCS
Publishing, Co. will publish this Special Issue online in PDF
format on its website at: [www.polocentre.org/resources/
publications/ijhges].
SUGGESTED REFERENCING STYLE

Khaleel, A.G., and Chakrabarti, M. (2018). Leap-Frogging to Renewable Energy Regime in West Africa: Arguing for a Community-led
Initiative. Int J Human Geog Environ Studies, SI2: 381-395.
ITALIAN CENTRE ISSN AND PUBLICATION DETAILS

Centro Italiano ISSN
Country Code: ITA
Centre Code: D
Biblioteca Centrale “G. Marconi”
JOURNAL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF (Italian Central Library “G. Marconi”)
Piazzale Aldo Moro, 7
Prof. Dr. Giuseppe T. Cirella, Ph. D. 00185, Rome, Italy
Director and Head of Research Publication Name: International Journal of Human Geography and Environmental Studies
Polo Centre of Sustainability Publication Abbreviation: Int J Human Geog Environ Studies
PCS Publishing, Co. International Standard Serial Number: ISSN 2036-7910
E: ppc@polocentre.org
W: www.polocentre.org
Contents
Synchronizing Agriculture Trading Regulation and Program in Indonesia – Case Study: Agriculture Trading 368
Regulation of Subang Regency Purwanegara, M.S., Kusumawati, N., Ekawati, R.H., and Hudrasyah, H.
Leap-Frogging to Renewable Energy Regime in West Africa: Arguing for a Community-led Initiative 381
Global Voice for Survival: An Ecosystemic Approach for the Environment and the Quality of Life 396
Pilon, A.F.
How efficient is urban land speculation? 408

Gemeda, B.S.
Dilemmas for Zanzibar: Energy, Economy and Environment 419

Juma, S.A.
Development of a multiple risks measurement framework for urban resilience 430

Ebisudani, M., dos Muchangos, L.S., and Cortes, A.C.
A GIS based Fire Station Site Selection using Network Analysis and Set Covering Location Problem (Case study: 433
Tehran, Iran) Davoodi, M., and Mesgari, M.S.
Prospects and Problems of Pirate Public Inter-City Transport Services in Lokoja, Kogi State 437
Adetunji, M.A.
Sustainable development 442

Rezaei, N.
Modern practices of human body design: Pilot study – regional aspect 448
Merenkov, A., Antonova, N., and Purgina, E.
Sustainable land reforms as a comprehensive migration management agenda: A perspective of social 455
inclusion in postcolonial Africa Mwangi, S.M.
ISSN 2036-7910 367 ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Synchronizing Agriculture Trading Regulation and Program in Indonesia

– Case Study: Agriculture Trading Regulation of Subang Regency
Purwanegara, M.S.,* Kusumawati, N., Ekawati, R.H., and Hudrasyah, H.
Bandung Institute of Technology, School of Business and Management, Bandung, Indonesia; * mustika@sbm-itb.ac.id
Abstract—Indonesian government policy in agricultural product trading has so far not been reflected in the principles of social
justice for the poor. The powerless of pineapple farmers in the trade system of agricultural products is strongly suspected by
the inadequacy of laws, regulations and policies that become a reference or general rules of the game for farmers, business
actors, and the government. This condition is further complicated by the enactment of decentralisation in Indonesia as
stipulated in Article 10 and 11 of Law Number 22 of 1999 concerning Local Government. It is the local government that
should have operational control over the regulation of the trading system of agricultural commodities in each regency/cities.
The authority of the National government is only expected to facilitate and coordinate national policies with the policies
adopted by the provinces and regencies/cities. Secondary data are obtained from the institution that is responsible for the data.
There is also various information available from official related governmental sites. Besides, FGD and direct interview with
the stakeholders are carried out. How are the Supply Chain and the position of pineapple farmer in the Supply Chain’s Value-
added? What are the government, National-Province-Regency, regulations and programs in solving this problem? How
synchronise the regulations, policies and programs of National-Province-Regency in resolving the trade system problems of
agricultural commodities and achieve their goals? Indonesian legislation in trading agriculture commodity especially in the
food crops and horticulture is non-existent. The only one that it exists in the National Strategic Planning is agriculture
commerce function and how the commerce function is executed or more or less looks like to the function of marketing
management. Indonesian Farmer still needs some more facilitation from National Government such as better distribution ways,
domestic prize stabilisation, growth stimulus, legal protection and prosperity increase strategy. The principles of social justice
in the field of trade in agricultural commodities is supposed to be formulated first before the implementation of the trade
function is executed.
Keywords—decentralisation, food crops trade, regulation, strategy, Indonesia
I. INTRODUCTION
I NDONESIA is a country that passed the Equator, as results Indonesia has a tropical climate. As a country with a tropical
climate, Indonesia has a wealth of nature very much. Based on the official website of the ministry of environment of
Republic Indonesia, Indonesia has so many plant diversity, Indonesia has more than 38,000 species of plants, of which 55% is
endemic which can only be grown in Indonesia, and there are 450 species of fruits (Ministry of Environment Republic of
Indonesia, 2018).
Figure 1. Pineapple Production by Province in Indonesia 2011-2015. Source: Ministry of Agriculture
Among a large number of types of fruit in Indonesia, there is some exotic fruit of tropical countries that become favourites.
Such as durian king of fruit, mangosteen, papaya, mangoes, star fruit and much more. One of the fruits of the tropical countries
that became favourite is pineapple. Pineapple has a yellow fruit flesh with a sweet-sour taste, it has a unique taste and also
refreshing. In addition to the unique flavour of pineapple also have lots of benefits for our bodies. Pineapple is a fruit crop of
shrubs that have the scientific name Ananas Comosus. Pineapple can grow in various seasons. Generally, can be developed in

polocentre.org
icshge.org
the 800 m above sea level. Pineapple plants can grow well in areas with an ideal rainfall of 1,000-1,500 mm per year and the
ideal temperature ranges from 23oC-32oC (Lathifah, 2013).
Production of pineapple in Indonesia is shown in Figure 1. Lampung became the most significant supplier (32.8%)
followed by North Sumatra Province (12.8%), West Java (10.4%) and other provinces. In 2011 Indonesia pineapple production
grew from 1.5 million tons to 1.7 million tons in 2015 representing the productivity 124.9 Tons/Ha in 2011 and 117.71 Tons/Ha
in 2015 (Figure 2).
Pineapple Production in Indonesia

(Ton) 2011-2015
2,000,000
1,781,894 1,882,802 1,835,483

1,500,000 1,729,600
1,540,626
1,000,000
500,000
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Figure 2. Pineapple Production in Indonesia 2011-2015. Source: Ministry of Agriculture
Subang is the primary producer of pineapple in West Java Province (96.9%) followed by Bogor (2.2%) and others.
Figure 3. Pineapple Production in West Java 2011-2015. Source: Ministry of Agriculture
Subang is located in the north of West Java. By topography, Subang is at an altitude between 0-1500 meter above the sea
level, has rainfall between 2,000 to 4,000 mm. Air temperature in Subang Regency ranges from 21oC-31oC with humidity
level ranging from 78oC - 84oC make Subang is a very suitable place to plant the pineapple. Subang has mountains with an
altitude of 500 meters to 1,500 meters above sea level. The most potential pineapple areas in Subang are District Jalan Cagak,
Ciater, Cijambe followed by Kaso Malang (Figure 4).
Based on the shape of the leaves and fruits, Subang pineapple plant is classified as Smooth Cayenne. Smooth Cayenne
Pineapple has the characteristics of delicate leaves, bubbly fruit, small fruit crown, watery, strong aroma, and taste tend to be
sweet. This variety has a large size, weight between 1.5kg – 5kg (average 2.3 kg) (Santoso, 1998). Its weight classifies fresh
pineapple. Pineapple with weight 2.5-3 kg categorized grade A. Pineapple with a weight of 2-2.5 kg categorized grade B.
Pineapple with a weight of 1.5-2 kg categorized grade C. Pineapple with a weight of 1-1.5 kg categorized grade D. Pineapple
which is too young, too mature, too small, bruised or defective is categorized as out-of-grade (Redaksi AgroMedia Pustaka,
2009, p.189).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Figure 4. Potential VS Real Pineapple Production in Subang Regency. Source: Ministry of Agriculture
It can be seen that Subang Regency has a much higher potential compared with real production with 45.45% of production
capacity has not been still not maximised. The district of Jalan Cagak becomes the highest producer of fresh pineapple in
Subang Regency which makes Jalan Cagak as the largest provider of fresh pineapple in West Java Province.
Pineapple is usually marketed in the form of fresh fruit that sells destination to the factory, the traditional market but the
most frequent is to the middlemen. The supply chain patterns of pineapple marketing are varied, and this is influenced by
geographical factors, time and usually farmers sell to buyers offering the most favourable price. There is an increasing trend
in pineapple prices at the producer level in Indonesia (Figure 5). The price of nenas in West Java as the third biggest producers
in Indonesia, mostly produced in Subang, is the lowest in Indonesia. Lampung is the biggest producer in Indonesia and so is
Sumatra North have higher prices compared to other provinces. Why can't Province Jabar and Subang Regency sell pineapple
at a better price like Lampung and North Sumatra (as the two biggest producers in Indonesia)?
Figure 5. The Growth of Pineapples Price at Producers Level in Indonesia. Source: Ministry of Agriculture

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Figure 6. The Producer Price in Province Level. Source: Ministry of Agriculture
Supply Chain and the position of pineapple farmer in the Supply Chain’s Value-added? What are the government,
National-Province-Regency, regulations and programs in solving this problem? How synchronise the regulations, policies and
programs of National-Province-Regency in resolving the trade system problems of agricultural commodities and achieve their
goals?

Suratman N. (2013) classifies Decentralized into (a) political decentralization, (b) an administrative decentralisation, (c)
fiscal decentralization, and (d) market decentralized or economy decentralized. Rondinelli and Nellis (1986: 5) define
decentralization from an administrative perspective as 'the transfer of responsibility for planning, management, and the
raising is an allocation of resources from the central government and its agencies to field units of government agencies,
subordinate units or levels of government, semi-autonomous public authorities or corporations, area-wide, regional or
functional authorities, or non-governmental private or voluntary organizations'. Decentralisation is a corrective action to
handle poor performance brought by excessive, or social jealousy comes from local groups (Rondinelli et al.,1983).
Decentralisation can be classified into four types: deconcentration, delegation, devolution, and privatisation (Rondinelli
1981a). All types can be used at the same time, or simultaneously.
1. Deconcentration is taking apart some workload, administrative authority and responsibility from centrally located
government to subordinate lower levels of government.
2. Delegation is handing over managerial responsibility for the specific function to organisations outside the central
government which have the capability to carry it out, but the principal authority is still with sovereign authority
3. Devolution is strengthening local government financially and legally by giving autonomy and independent legal status
4. Privatisation is releasing responsibility for functions to other organisation or private enterprise
In reality, a decentralisation strategy is most typically a mixture of the first three forms, depending on the specific
objectives of the strategy. However, the devolution form offers the most potential for obtaining governance and economic
benefits. With the transfer of responsibilities to local units of government, significant benefits result concerning accountability,
problem-solving, and citizen participation (Johnson &Minnis,1996).
A. Decentralisation of Indonesia
Indonesia is the biggest archipelago state in the world, Indonesia has more than 17.000 islands consists of 300 ethnics
that is divided into 34 provinces, 416 regencies and 98 cities. It will be very ineffective if an archipelago state like Indonesia
only adopts a government system that is only centred in the central government. because of this, the decentralisation is expected
to flow of government in Indonesia can be more effective
B. Indonesian Regulation in Indonesia
Based on the 1945 Constitution of The Republic of Indonesia (UUD 1945), article 1 paragraph 3, government
administration of Indonesia is ruled by the law and not by personal power. It means that every activity done in this country
must refer to the applicable law. The legal power of law follows the hierarchy as mention in the Act of the Establishment of

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Legislation, Number 10, the year 2004, article 7 (1), as follows:

1. The 1945 Constitution of The Republic of Indonesia (UUD 1945)
2. Act and Government Regulation in Lieu of Law (Perpu)
3. Government Regulation (Peraturan Pemerintah)
4. President Regulation (Peraturan Presiden )
5. Local Regulation (Peraturan Daerah)
C. Local Regulation in the Indonesian Decentralization
With decentralisation, every province in Indonesia can make their policy but does not go against the 1945 constitution
and is still based on the Pancasila. Decentralisation itself means a right, authority and responsibility of an autonomous region
to govern and manage their government and local public needs that are compatible with the law. Local authority covers all
authorities in the field of government, except in the fields of foreign policy, defence, security, justice, monetary and national
fiscal, and religion as regulated in the provisions of Article 10 paragraph (3) of the Act Number 32 of 2004.
Mandatory affairs which become regional authorities are regulated in the provisions of Article 13 and Article 14 which
have been further regulated by Government Regulation No. 38/2007 concerning the Division of Government Affairs between
the Government, Provincial Governments and Regency / City Governments. In the framework of the implementation of Local
Government, the Government has also stipulated Government Regulation No.41 / 2007 concerning Regional Device
Organization. Legislation that governs the application of decentralisation in Indonesia is UUD 1945, article 18 (1-7), article
18A (1-2), and article 18B (1-2). Decentralisation in Indonesia is applied through the Act of Local Government, Number 23,
the Year 1999; Number 23 the Year 2014 and Number 9 the Year 2015. Decentralisation has a goal to increase public service
so it could be better and the advancement of democratic life in Indonesia.
In the name of harmonisation, hierarchy principle is done through the annulment of local regulation by the government it
is against higher constitution rule and or go against public importance that disturbs harmony between people in a society,
disturbance in public service and disturbance of public harmony/order and a policy that is discriminative in nature. Local
Regulation covers:
1. Province regulation is made by the Provincial House of Representative member with the governor
2. Regency regulation is made by the Regency House of Representative member with the Regent
2 City regulation is made by the City House of Representative member with the mayor
3 Village or others of the same level law is made by the village representative with village leader. Further legislation about the
rules of the village or others of the same level is governed in the regency or city regulation that is concerned.
III. METHODOLOGY
Generally, this research uses administrative data from several public service institute in Indonesia Mostly using secondary
data such as World Bank Data, Government Data and Policy, Statistic Indonesia, Statistic Subang and Statistic West Java, also
some journals and website articles. Interview with the Government Officials of Subang Regency working in the Department
of Agriculture, Department of Cooperative and Small Scale Businesses, Department of Trade and Regional Planning and
Interview with farmers Group in Jalan Cagak District. This research focuses on three pineapple farmers association in Jalan
Cagak District (see their Profile in Table 1) and actors in the pineapple supply chain to know the value added got by each
actor.
Figure 7. Data Collection.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
TABLE I
PROFILES OF FARMER GROUPS
Farmer Group 1 Farmer Group 2 Farmer Group 3
Revenue (IDR) 2,067,000,000 4,457,400,000 5,100,000,000
Expense (IDR) 1,403,970,000 2,344,657,000 2,326,283,200
Net Income (IDR) 663,030,000 2,112,743,000 2,773,716,800
Harvest Area (Ha) 79.5 64.6 50
Harvest Time (Month) 7 17 14
Average Income/Ha 8,340,000 32,705,000 55,474,336
Income (IDR)/month 94,718,571 124,279,000 198,122,629

Farmers Number 25 22 25
Income (IDR)/farmer/month 3788742.84 4971160 7924905.16

Source: The data were processed from the farmer interview
IV. FINDINGS
A. The Supply Chain Analysis
In this analysis, the division of costs, revenues, profit and margin among the actors in a Supply chain are considered so
that it can be made the conclusions about the financial position of an actor compared with other actors in the chain. Figure 8
shows the Supply chain of the pineapple business in Jalan Cagak District. Price information is obtained from direct interviews
with the stakeholders.
Figure 8. The Supply Chain of Pineapple Business in Jalan Cagak District.
In the Supply chain process, the selling price of pineapple at the farmer level is very low. Farmers supply pineapple to
farmers Groups at a price of IDR. 2,000 / kg. Farmer Group as the party collecting pineapple from farmers then sells fresh
pineapple to food processing industry and middlemen. The quality that is usually desired by the food processing industry is
fresh pineapple with grade A or grade B. Average product selling price of IDR. 3,500 / kg. While the price of the product with
grade C or D is IDR. 2,000 / kg and sold to middlemen. Farmer Group as a non-profit organisation does not take any profit.
The profits from the sale will be directly distributed to farmers who supplied the pineapple. Middlemen will collect products
from several farmer Groups and sell them to his customers. Middlemen sell fresh pineapple to the food processing industry for
IDR. 4,000 / kg, supermarket IDR. 4,500 / kg and also traditional market IDR. 3,500 / kg. Food processing industry will market
its products to the gift shop with an average price of processed products IDR. 15,000 / pack, to the supermarket for IDR. 15,000
/ pack, and the traditional market for IDR. 13,000 / pack. The selling price to traditional market is smaller due to the different
target segment which has lower purchasing power. Processed pineapple products produced by the food processing industry are
snacks that can be consumed daily and made souvenirs.
Farmer Groups must know their financial position among the actors of the Supply chain to find out whether their position
in the Supply chain is already good income or they can get much higher income. Based on the tool book entitled Making
Supply Chains Better for the Poor (M4P, 2008) there are several ways to calculate the financial position of actors in the Supply
chain. One of them is to calculate the value-added margin and profits. The table below shows how to calculate it.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
TABLE II
FORMULA FOR CALCULATING MARKETING MARGIN
Costs Revenues Profits Margins
Unit
Supply Chain Actor Unit
Total Added Unit Cost % Added Cost Unit Price Unit Profit % Total Profits
Margin
Costs
Farmers A - A/F G G-A (G-A)/(K-F) G
Assemblers G B B/F H H-B-G (H-B-G)/(K-F) H-G
Processors H+C C C/F I I-C-H (I-C-H)/(K-F) I-H
Traders I+D D D/F J J-D-I (J-D-I)/(K-F) J-I
Retailers J+E E E/F K K-E-J (K-E-J)/(K-F) K-J
Total F=A+B+C+D+E 100 K-F 100 K
Source: Department for International Development of UK
Figure 9 shows that sales to the food processing industry are much more profitable than the sales to the middlemen, but
the quality demanded by them should be higher. Alternative sales of medium quality fresh pineapple are to middlemen, but
they give a lower price.
Figure 9. Distribution of Profit (%) in the Supply Chain.
TABLE III
SUPPLY CHAIN MARGIN
The figure and table above shows the percentage of the overall value added to the Supply chain. The most significant
percentage added cost occurs in the processor reach,81.8%. This is due to a lot of additional costs to make a processed product
such as additional raw material costs in addition to fresh pineapple as well as operational costs such as salary workers,
electricity and telephone costs. The farmer occupies the second position. Farmer as a major supplier of fresh pineapple requires
much cost during the planting period until the harvest. This makes the presentation added cost farmer at 17.9%. While the
smallest added cost percentage is held by middlemen and farmer Group, which is 0.2% and 0.1%. This is because there is not
much cost incurred to add the added Supply, the cost incurred include the cost of transportation of products such as the purchase
of gasoline and vehicle maintenance, telephone costs, and labour costs (driver, pineapple sorter).
Regarding profit, the processor again gets the highest percentage of the highest profit compared to the other four Supply
chain actor. With a percentage of 64.4% prove that if the product is sold with value added, then it will get much more profitable
results. The second position is occupied by middlemen, with a percentage of 24.9%. Middlemen do business with the principle
of taking out energy as small as possible and get the most profit. While this is an ethical business principle, it can harm others.
This is evident from the percentage of farmer Groups and farmers who get the least profit. Farmers become Supply chain actors
who are suffered because of the high added cost but very low profit.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
B. Indonesian Regulation and Policies in Food Crops and Horticulture

21 Acts are linked with agriculture. These acts are associated with edible crops and horticulture, farmer empowerment
from unhealthy competition, even to land ownership sharing and the issue of the cultivator. Meanwhile, there is only one
Government Regulation in Lieu of Law that discuss local government. There are 40 Government Regulation that assures the
function of the farming businesses such as pesticide, fertiliser, seed and protection of the crops and its variety; food security,
its quality and nutrient and the production availability of area, land, tools facility.
President Regulation, twenty-two that mainly governs institutions, organisations, middle term development and only one
that is linked with farming which is the application of subsidised fertiliser as a regulated item. Presidential decision and
instruction govern farming issue that concerns primary need for sugar and rice and concerns about the explanation in the
business field, monetary access, capital investment and credit.
Marketing of Agricultural Products and its price setting is not found in the constitution, acts, or regulation of government
and president. These findings support the Indonesian Decentralization mentioned in the act of Local Government, Number 23,
the Year 1999 states that the authority of operational management is given more to the local government through the
instruments of local governance regulation. The legal basis of this authority can be seen in article 10 and 11 that describe the
local government is the one that should have operational authority on the controlling of agricultural product marketing, and
the National government authority is only facilitating in nature and coordinating national regulation with the regulation that is
applied in the regency/city. The National government no longer governor rule about the trade organiser institution and technical
operation in every regency and city.
C. Regulation in Food, Crops and Horticulture
Each region has their right to formulate their regulation. However, the regulation and policy made still must follow the
regulation and policy from a higher level of government. Three major institutions may affect the pineapple industry. They are
the Ministry of Food, Crop and Horticulture, Trade Ministry, Ministry of Industry, and Ministry of Union. that the position of
ministerial regulations has a higher degree of regulatory regions, because the position of the ministry as an auxiliary body
president who runs a general policy lines that have been determined and the scope of the enforceability of a national ministerial
regulation as well as the substance that is regulated in a ministerial regulation is a translation directly from the enactment laws,
rules and regulations president (Tesano et al.).
Each ministry has a different role towards the pineapple industry. While ministry of Food, Crop and Horticulture more
focuses on controlling the process of production sector of pineapple industry, trade ministry and ministry of industry more
focus on controlling the processing and consumption of the outcomes of agricultural industry in Indonesia, and ministry of
union more focus to control and give a service for the welfare of the stakeholder of the industry. Due to the focus of this
research is to study about government regulation and policies toward pineapple productivity, this research will only discuss
the impact of the ministry of Food Crop and Horticulture regulation and policy towards pineapple price stability. The data
from the ministry of Food Crop and Horticulture is analysed to understand the impact of government’s National Strategy
toward pineapple price stability in West Java. National level strategy becomes the main roots of strategy.
The following laws and government regulations can be an opportunity and threats for the pineapple farmer Group in Jalan
Cagak.
1. Law of the Republic of Indonesia Number 19 of 2013 concerning Farmer Protection and Empowerment. This law regulates
the obligations of the central and regional governments to facilitate and encourage farmers to become agricultural insurance
participants who can protect farmers from the loss of harvest failure due to natural disasters, attacks on organisms, the effects
of climate change and other types of risks. Farmer protection and empowerment aim to realise the sovereignty and
independence of farmers in order to improve the level of welfare, quality and better life of farmers, protect farmers from crop
failures and price risks and provide agricultural infrastructure and facilities needed to develop farming and develop financing
institutions agriculture that serves the interests of farming.
2. Human resources are one of the keys to success in agricultural development. In order to improve the quality of human
resources, one of the efforts made is through education and training. This refers to the Minister of Agriculture Regulation No.
75 / Permentan / Ot. 140/12/2012, concerning Guidelines for Organizing Education and Training, and Horticultural Human
Resource Competency Certification. The regulation explains that in order to obtain good horticultural human resources and
meet the expected competency standards, education and training must be held, and competency certification is systematic and
follows good rules. Education and Training in Jalan Cagak District were carried out to improve the quality of the farmers
carried out by the Agriculture Department of Horticulture in the Subang Regency along with the Agriculture, Fisheries and
Forestry Extension Agency (BP3K) Jalan Cagak.
3. Regulation of the Minister of Agriculture No. 273 / Kpts / OT.160 / 4/2007 concerning Guidelines for Farmer Institutional
Development. The government combines farmer Groups that already exist in a Group of Farmers' Groups [Gapoktan]. This
merger is in order to develop farmer Groups so that they can expand the reach of businesses, increase agricultural production,
facilitate the marketing of agricultural products, increase business capital and increase the welfare of its members. Several
things should be used as a material for evaluation of these policies, one of which is the weak access of farmer Groups and a
combination of farmer Groups in entering banking access. Agricultural business needs to be managed professionally so that
the business assistance process, especially the development of agricultural business, needs to be done. This is based on the fact
that many farmer Group businesses have gone bankrupt due to lack of capital due to poor business management (Nugroho,
2013).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
4. Regulation of the Minister of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia Number 24 / M-DAG / PER / 6/2008 concerning the
provisions on the export of bananas and pineapple to Japan in the framework of IJ-EPA (Indonesia Japan-Economic Partnership
Agreement). With this collaboration, the opportunity to export pineapple to Japan is wide open. The demand for pineapple
from Japan is very high, from a report written by Fruitrop (specialised magazine in world trade of fruits and vegetables) the
average consumption of pineapple in 2010-2014 reached 163,975 tons per year. This can be used by pineapple farmer Groups
in Jalan Cagak to increase their sales to Japan. However, in conducting commodity sales abroad, several standards are
implemented to define the quality requirements for pine for export. HS Code 080430 is a number code in classifying fresh
pineapple and dried pineapple products. The use of the Harmonized System (HS) Code is to provide an official international
system for the provision of codes, explanations and classifications of goods for trading purposes.
Based on this, the regulations originating from the central government and the government are beneficial for pineapple
farmers to advance their business. Unfortunately, from the government level of Subang Regency, there are still no policies
contained in regional regulations. Even though the policies made by the district government will significantly impact the
sustainability of the pineapple farmer Group business in Jalan Cagak District.
1) Strategic Planning and Program
National Government
Changes in action or political policy in a country can have a significant impact on the business sector in that country.
Therefore, if the political situation is supportive, then business, in general, will run smoothly. The government system in
Indonesia is involved or intervenes in business. This can be seen in the law and policies issued by the government to support
business (Utomo, 2010).
During the reign of Jokowi-Jusuf Kalla, there was a draft of nine priority agendas called the Nawa Cita program, one of
the points related to agriculture was that the government promised to accelerate the release of 9 million hectares of land for
farmers written in the 2015 National Medium Term Development Plan (RPJMN) - 2019. The division of land will be given
per farmer Group, not per individual. However, due to limited land in Java, the area of land distribution will be limited, unlike
outside Java, where the distribution of land reaches more than 50 hectares per farmer Group.
To follow up on the RPJMN program in agriculture, the provincial government helped create the 2013-2018 Regional
Medium Term Regional Development Plan (RPJMD). The strategy in the field of agriculture is to maintain and replace the
area of paddy fields that change the function of land from agriculture to non-agriculture with the direction of the policy of
printing new rice fields to achieve sustainable agricultural land.
Strategic planning of the regulation and policy for the period of 2015-2019 are a continuation and advanced from last
period realisation. To get the desired target, it is needed to know the representation of the problem that might be coming in the
next five years. Based on the evaluation of previous agricultural development, the major agricultural problem in Indonesia are:
1. Conversion of estate crops,
2. Limited land for new crops,
3. Land degradation,
4. Limited land owned by farmers,
5. Unidentified land ownership,
6. Damaged irrigation system,
7. Availability of high quality seed and plantation fertilizer,
8. Lack of agricultural tools and machinery,
9. Lack of organizational skill and human resources,
10. Less effective and directed government regulation, and
11. Funding problem for most of farmers.
The Ministry of Agriculture has set 7 main strategies as solving for the problems identified in the agriculture sector. The
activities needed as the realisation also derived from the strategy. The strategy along with the activities are shown in table 3.
West Java Province Government
Province government strategic plan of food, crop and horticulture published by Department of food, crop and horticulture,
province of West Java also synchronizes with the Middle Term Development Plan of the West Java Province,2013-2018,
Strategic plan of cities/districts of all west java, layout plan of the west java area 2009-2029 and the document of the result
of West Java Provincial Strategic Living Environment studies. They identify issues that affect the West Java food, crop and
horticulture service is needed in the Development of Agriculture in the province of West Java for the next five years.
Besides to that, findings from the questionnaire from the high ranked (level 4 and 3) government staffs in the Food, Crop
and Horticulture Agency point out that farmers have problems as follows:
1. Land conversion,
2. Low quality of human resources in the agribusiness sector,
3. Most plantation commodities are already old and damaged,
4. Limited resources, budget and infrastructure, irrigation
5. agricultural commodities losses
6. Still using the traditional way of processing, lack of technology,
7. Final products are less developed not marketed and promoted well,
8. Role of farmer’s Group is not optimal,
9. Food, crops and horticulture diseases,
10. Commodity’s production, productivity and quality are still low, and

polocentre.org
icshge.org
11. High dependence of farmers to government’s grants.

12. Eco-friendly technology Usage
Based on identified problems, the West Java Food, Crops and Horticulture Agency then defines several important
programs as follows:
1. Increasing agricultural production (food, crop and horticulture)
2. Agricultural resource empowerment program
3. Prevention programs for plant disease,
4.Processing and marketing program
5. Reducing food, crop and horticulture losses.
TABLE IV
NATIONAL STRATEGIC PLAN FOR FOOD, CROPS AND HORTICULTURE
Main Strategy Activities
1. Increase the availability and using of a. Land audit. Update the database.
land b. Effectively implement Indonesia’s constitution.
c. Undertake land-protection efforts.
d. Optimize the using of available land.
e. Help farmers regarding administration of their land.
f. Increase the quality of land.
g. Optimize the existing water resources.
2. Agriculture facilities and a. Create and fix the needed infrastructure.
infrastructure upgrading b. Coordination with related ministry to implement the strategy.
c. Allocate grants for agriculture facilities.
d. Strengthening the organizational system.
e. Strengthening the role of farmer Group.
3. Develop the logistic system of a. Rearrangement of seeding organizational system
seeding b. Protect and use national genetic resources
c. Strengthening the supervisor of seeding system
d. Empowering local seed producer
e. Increase private parties’ role to develop seeding industry
f. Create seeding industry
g. Coordination with seed importer
h. Provide plantation resources
4. Strengthen farmers Group a. Improve the quality and quantity of farmers Group
b. Provide technical guidance and assistance for farmers
c. Extend the Group type
d. Strengthen the funding system for farmers Group
5. Develop and strengthen the funding a. Fix credit program to help farmers
system b. Grow and develop channelling agent for formal financial institution
c. Increase the function of agriculture instructor
d. Develop cooperation pattern between farmers and local entrepreneur
e. Grow agribusiness micro financial institution
f. Provide funding for farmers
g. Support local investment
h. Support the development of agricultural bank
6. Develop and strengthen bioenergy a. Arrange the development map of bioenergy and bioindustry
and bioindustry b. Strengthen the production commodity supply
c. Develop simple processing industry
d. Support industry to apply zero waste management
e. Support the development of domestic advanced processing
f. Support investment on agriculture production result
7. Strengthen the market channel for a. Arrange the marketing channel map for strategic commodity
agriculture product b. Strengthen the market service information system
c. Facilitate warehouse receipt system
d. Support agriculture product export
e. Conduct positive campaign for agriculture distinct commodities
f. Strengthen the international trading negotiation for agricultural commodities
g. Accompaniment to the implementation of the standard quality
h. Open new target market beside existing market
Subang Regency Government

The strategic plan published by Department of Food Crop in Subang regency is a description of its middle term
development plans that consists of the Subang Regent’s vision and mission, policy direction, strategy and Subang Development
plan. Arrangement of the 2014-2018 Strategic Plans Subang’s Department of Food Crops is a form of description of:
a. The government regulation, Number 8 the Year 2008, about stages and tutorial, organising, controlling and evaluation of
the Execution of Subang Development Plans and

polocentre.org
icshge.org
b. The home secretary Regulation, Number 54 the Year 2010 about the execution of government Regulation number 8 the
year 2008 and
c. other legislation that governs and mandate the arrangement of the strategic plans of the local task force (SKPD) for 5
years and also as an instrument for planning and measuring the working performance of Department of Food Crops
Subang.
The results of those above are found the strategic issues as follows.
1. production and productivity of horticulture and food crops
2. quality and the continuity of the food and crop and horticulture product in facing global competition
3. prevention and action against infestation of pests
4. quality and quantity in the availability of infrastructure, facility, space and water
5. application of technology that is environment oriented
6. capital access for farmers
7. human resource capabilities in farming
8. farming organisation
Program
1. Programs to increase production, productivity and quality of agriculture products
2. Program for the provision and development of agricultural infrastructure and facilities
3. Extension education and agricultural training programs
4. Strengthening farmer Group
5. Reducing agricultural commodities losses
6. Increasing farmer's selling margin
7. Marketing Subang's Rice
8. Marketing Subang’s distinctive Agricultural Commodities
9. Supporting new product development and value added processed food
10. Prevention programs for plant disease,
D. Budget
A significant amount of the fund is needed in running the Agricultural development. The success of the Executor’s
organizational performance in facilitating management process of the Agriculture Development needs the support of APBN,
APBD of province APBD and or district or city. Funding support is needed to run the coordination, supervision, scouting
process and to evaluate all planned program and activities.
The source of the funds cannot be just from the Indonesia State Budget (APBN) but also need to be supported from other
funding like from the local government through Provincial Budget (APBD), the involvement of private/State Owned Enterprise
(BUMN)/Regionally Owned Enterprise (BUMD), domestic investment, foreign investment, banks (skin credit and commercial
credit) and from the citizens own effort.
With the use of the ICVAR (Incremental Capital Value- Added Ratio) approach to reach the target, the investment needed
for Agriculture development to fulfil its target in the period between 2015-2019 is massive. It is about more than 450 trillion
Rupiah annually. Most of it (85-90%) is funding that comes from the private sector, banks and the citizen. The government
facilitates smaller parts of the fund (10-15%) whether through APBN or APBD
About 30 % of the annual APBN is allocated to facilitate the development of Agriculture Development. The decision of
the Agriculture Ministry determines kinds of commodities and the location of Regional Agriculture development. Meanwhile,
70 % of the annual APBN is allocated to support the implementation of program and activities for Agricultural development
and must follow the technical service standard that is determined.
More prominent role in Agriculture development is the authority the provincial/city/regency government through the
provincial/ city/regional APBD (included in the special fund allocation) that is directed for
1. necessary Agriculture infrastructure that is not interested in the private sector and cannot be built or maintained by the
farmers
2. development of Institutional capacity in the field of agriculture that covers human resource development, technology,
funding, market service and market information
3. to overcome the obstacle in Marketing Agricultural commodities and product.
1) The budget for Food Crops in Subang Regency

In 2017 the Subang Food Crop and Horticulture Agency received funding of IDR. 870 million from the APBD I and IDR.
130 million from APBD II, while budget assistance from the national government through (APBN) does not exist at all.
Respondents argue that there are several reasons why not every year there is financial assistance from the national government,
this is partly because the national government is currently focusing on food security (rice) so that the allocation of funds will
be distributed more to food commodities.
Overall the program of the national government, the provincial government and the local government of Subang Regency
has been very supportive of the Pineapple business located in the Jalan Cagak District. However, assistance in the form of the
additional land area is still not felt by the pineapple farmers Group in Jalan Cagak District. Farmers usually own land from

polocentre.org
icshge.org
parents' inheritance, or buy the land by themselves and even rent vacant land to plant the pineapple. The APBN and APBD
budgets managed by the Department of Agriculture will usually be distributed to farmers in the form of fertiliser and seed
subsidies, as well as the provision of training to increase farmers' knowledge and skills in agricultural science.
TABLE V
BUDGET ALLOCATION FOR FOOD, CROPS AND HORTICULTURE IN EVERY LEVEL
Budget Allocation (%)
Program
National Province Local
Management support and other technical duties implementation 5.2%
Program of supervision and increased accountability of the ministry of agriculture people 0.35%
Programs to increase production, productivity and quality of agriculture products 27.8% 89% 96%
Program of increasing production and productivity of eco-friendly horticulture 5.25%
Program to increase production and productivity of sustainable plantation crops 11.37%
Food fulfillment program of livestock origin and agribusiness of the people’s farm 4.73%
Value added programs, competitiveness, quality, product marketing and investment 4% 1% <1%
Program for the provision and development of agricultural infrastructure and facilities 25.52% 3%
Program of technological creation and innovation of sustainable bioindustry agriculture 7.92%
Extension education and agricultural training programs 1.60%
8.08%
Strengthening farmer association <1%
Reducing agricultural commodities losses 6.20% <1%
Increasing farmer's selling margin <1%
Marketing Subang's Rice <1%
Marketing distinctive Agricultural Commodities <1%
Supporting new product development and value added proccessed food <1%
.Prevention programs for plant disease, 2.20%
Budget for the food crops and horticulture marketing programs to the domestic and foreign market are minimal, only 4 % of
the total annual budget and in Subang Regency its even lower, only 1 % (Table 5). There are no domestic market structure
arrangement effort visible, price establishment policy and agriculture product distribution and storage facilitation in the town
level. Decentralisation principle is conducted here. The Head of Subang Regency together with its House of Representatives
have an authority to make the local regulation to govern their Agricultural business, this starts appealing in Subang. Even
though Subang regency with a minimal budget can have its program and to increase the prosperity of farmers, increase of
commodity added values and the commerce of Subang' distinct agriculture commodities.
E. The Legislation of Indonesia in Marketing Agricultural Commodities
Indonesian legislation in commerce and agriculture commodity especially in the food crops and horticulture is non-
existent. The only one that it exists in the National Strategic Planning are agriculture commerce function and how the
commerce function is executed or more or less looks like to the function of marketing management; buying, assembling,
selling, and distributing, transportation, storage, standardising, financing, risk-taking and market information.
Besides, legislation within the scope of the Trade Ministry has almost no regulations for regulated trade system of
agricultural commodities in Indonesia, other than trade in refined sugar in the auction market(40/M-DAG/PER/6/2017). There
are only eight pieces of the Trade Law concerning prices, all of which are the Regulation Trade Ministry aimed at protecting
consumers only, namely the price policy of:
• Rice’s Highest retail price (7/M-DAG/PER/8/2017)
• Farmer’s Selling and Consumer’s Buying References (27/M-DAG/PER/5/2017)
• The highest export prices for tariff-affected commodities such as agricultural commodities, forestry, mining is subject to
export duties
It seems that Globalization through the World Trade Organization’s membership is a high price that Indonesian should
pay. Indonesian farmers still need some more facilitation from National Government such as better distribution ways, domestic
prize stabilisation, growth stimulus, economic development, legal protection and prosperity increase strategy.
V. CONCLUSION
Based on the analysis of some activities can be seen that farmers Group in Jalan Cagak District should add Supply added
in order to increase the selling price of fresh pineapple. Farmers become Supply chain actors who are suffered because of the
high added cost but very low profit. The bargaining power of farmers is the main trigger. Sales to the food process industry
are far more profitable than sales to the middlemen, but the quality demanded by them should be better. So the farmer Group
will benefit more if it sells to the food processor industry. However, it would be better if the farmer Group create value added
by processing their crops. This is because the processor holds the most significant percentage of profits.
Subang regency government runs the government following the direction of the authority, responsibility and regulations
given by the central government, and West Java. The lack of implication of principles of trade in agricultural products, in every
level of government, causes farmers to always be in a weak position. They also have the same rights as other components of
society. Such a thing certainly reflects the structure of injustice among farmers in agriculture sectors who absorb the amount
40% of the productive age population in Indonesia. The principles of social justice in the field of trade in agricultural
commodities is supposed to be formulated first before the implementation of the trade function of agricultural commodities
can achieve its target. With the principles of social justice, which will later be incorporated into the legislation in the field of
trade in agricultural commodities, it is expected that the implementation in the field will not deviate again, so that what is
outlined in Article 33 paragraph 3 of the Constitution 1945 that the earth, water, and the natural resources contained are

polocentre.org
icshge.org
controlled by the state and used as much as possible for the prosperity of the people, can be realized.
VI. RECOMMENDATION
It is the local government that should hold operational control over the regulation of trade in agricultural products in each
region (West Java and Subang regencies), and the authority of the National government is to facilitate and coordinate national
policies with the policies adopted by the region. The Government of West Java Province and Subang Regency are suggested
to create the policies to reduce the effect of globalisation through create legislation and policies to improve their economic
growth through enhancing regency/city distinctiveness and diversity and also as act as a channel for conveying the aspiration
of the Regency/city dwellers. Although, in its management, still in the corridors of the Republic of Indonesia that is based on
the Pancasila and the 1945 constitution.
REFERENCES
Jatnika, Hendy. (2017). Perubahan Renstra Dinas Tanaman Pangan dan Hortikultura Provinsi Jawa Barat 2013-2018. Pemerintah Provinsi Jawa Barat Dinas
Tanaman Pangan dan Hortikultura.
Johnson & Minis. (1996), Toward Democratic Decentralization: Approaches to Promoting Good Governance, Research Triangle Institute, 1-10.
Kementerian Pertanian. (2015). Rencana Strategis Kementerian Pertanian Tahun 2015 - 2019. Kementerian Pertanian. Jakarta. 1-195.
Lathifah, S. N., 2013, Pembuatan Nata De Phina dari Limbah Bonggol Nanas Menggunakan Sumber Nitrogen Ekstrak Kacang Hijau, Bandung (ID):
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia.
MacAndrews, Sibero and Fisher. (1981). Regional Development, Planning and Implementation in Indonesia: The Evolution of a National Policy. Paper read
at United Nations Center for Region Development Seminar on Rural Development, Nagoya, Japan, 1981.
Ministry of Agriculture, 2016, Outlook: Komoditas Pertanian Sub Holtikutura Nenas, Jakarta: Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian Sekretariat
Jenderal Kementerian Pertanian.
Ministry of Environment Republic of Indonesia (2018) Keaneka Ragaman Hayati. Available at: http://www.menlh.go.id/keanekaragaman-hayati/
(Accessed: 28 March 2018).
Pemerintah Kabupaten Subang Dinas Pertanian Tanaman Pangan. (2014). Rencana Strategi Dinas Pertanian Tanaman Pangan Kabupaten Subang 2014-
2018.
Redaksi AgroMedia Pustaka, 2009, Buku Pintar: Budi Daya Tanaman Buah Unggul Indonesia, Jakarta: AgroMedia.
Rondinelli. (1981a). "Government Decentralization in Comparative Perspective: Theory and Practice in Developing Countries." International Review of
Administrative Science, vol. 47, no. 2 (1981a): 133-45.
Rondinelli and Johnson. (1989). Analysing Decentralization Policies in Developing Countries: A Political Economy Framework, in Development and
Change. SAGE. Vol 20. 57 -87.
Santoso, H. Budi., 1998, Sari Buah Nanas, Yogyakarta: Kanisius.
Suratman, Nur (2013), Decentralization and Development in Public Policy Implementation Perspective; Case Study in Indonesia, IOSR Journal of
Humanities and Social Science (IOSR-JHSS). Vol 17, Issue 6 (Nov. - Dec. 2013), 27-33.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Leap-Frogging to Renewable Energy Regime in West Africa: Arguing for

a Community-led Initiative
Khaleel, A.G.,1,2,* and Chakrabarti, M.2
1
Department of Economics & Development Studies, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Federal University, Dutse –
Jigawa, Nigeria; * ahmad.khaleel@fud.edu.ng
2
Department of Economics & Int’l Business, School of Business Studies, Sharda University, Greater Noida, UP, India
Abstract—The development aspirations of most developing countries have been experiencing serious challenges from
different perspectives due variations in the communities within most developing countries. These challenges are further
complicated by the interlinkages between different aspects of development; most notable energy-growth-environmental
linkages. The level of energy access has been adequately linked to growth and development over the years and achieving this
at country level is even more challenging for developing countries especially those in Africa, mainly due to their inherent
differences. This paper argued that a community based energy system partly or wholly owned by the Community Enterprise
will work well in West Africa for reasons like the availability of supporting initiatives in policy, finance, renewable
technologies that are scalable to fit all sizes of demand. This will be based on leap-frogging strategy that enables skipping of
generations of old technologies into new technologies in a consistent manner. This will enable the development of private
sector at the level of communities to participate in many national, regional and international initiatives while realizing their
Sustainable Development Goals - SDGs and creating wealth for themselves in the process.
Keywords—leap-frogging, renewable energy, causality, community-led initiative, SDGs, cooperation
I. INTRODUCTION
T HE complex nature of the global energy, growth and environment relations that continue to fuel the sustainability debates
is evident in most recent international dialogue in many development areas (Roper, 2012). Equally, the growing
manifestations of the global environmental challenges are some of the serious issue at the centre of the sustainable energy,
growth and development linkage that is both a challenge and opportunity in disguise (Cohen, Demeritt, Robinson & Rothman,
1998). This is truer in the least developing countries where the combined challenges of low level of development and climate
change are well evident (Hussen, 2004). The relationship between energy, growth and development has been one of the most
studied areas during the last four to five decades specifically since the publication of “The Limits to Growth” in 1972. The
continuation of the debate goes unabated as signified by the current debates on sustainability (Ozturk, 2009, Omrin, 2014).
The paramount place of energy-growth linkage is very visible in national, regional and international development
agendas/plans, initiatives and programmes, the peak of which, for instance, is the United Nations (UN) Sustainable
Development Goals – SGDs (Nilsson, Lucas, & Yoshida, 2013). Private sector interests are also not immune from this concern.
When it comes to the global goals, the significant role of partnership in the process of not only growth and development, but
those of trade and investment as key ingredients, cannot be stressed more (Dolan, A., 2011). This is because the partnership
for sustainable energy, growth and development linkage may be viewed as the foundational framework upon which all the
other global goals of sustainable development can be achieved.
However, while this great opportunity is within the grasp of the world and its different regions, the growing mismatch
between demand and supply of energy poses a serious challenge. This is kept persistent by the growing aspirations of the
developing world to reduce global inequality and experience their stages of high mass consumption (Hurrell & Sengupta,
2012) as reflected by rapid urbanization in the developing world, especially Asia and Africa. According to United Nations
Department of Economic and Social Affairs’ 2014 World Urbanization Prospects, the share for Africa has exceeded 40 per
cent of the continent’s total population in 2014 and projected by to reach 56 per cent by 2050 (UNECA, 2017). Such challenges
can be avoided and the opportunities highly utilized with the greatest economic and environmental benefits through leap-
frogging to intensive renewable energy regime (Szabó, Bódis, Huld & Moner-Girona, 2013). Leap-Frogging (more details in
section IV) involves switching or skipping generations of technologies to the latest and possibly becoming a technological
leader in a given industry. This shift to new energy technologies being a solution to the challenges of environment and SDGs,
require a strategic organization of huge amount of resources (financial, technical and human). These resources are usually not
sufficiently available to individual countries (especially slowly developing African countries) at the desired time and manner,
rather they are scattered across different counties. Therefore, the need for partnerships among developing nations in the spirit
of South-South and Triangular Cooperation – SSTC as a viable channel for energy partnership that can effectively facilitate
leap-frogging to renewable energy regime in a mutually beneficial arrangement is eminent. The timely arrival and continuous
evolving of one such SSTC framework in the name of Asia-Africa Growth Corridor – AAGC is an advantageous development
for most importantly Africa.
The people centric sustainable growth strategy envisioned in Asia-Africa Growth Corridor – AAGC as a framework for
development cooperation, encapsulate within it the needed experiences, atmosphere, tools and methods that perfectly matched
the power sector and other challenges of Africa. The initiative as transpired in the joint declaration by the Prime Ministers of
India and Japan in 2016 is being raised on four pillars namely; Development and Cooperation Projects, Quality Infrastructure
and Institutional Connectivity, Enhancing Capacities and Skills and People-to-People partnership. The detailed strategy as
enshrined in the vision document would be evolved through a process of detailed consultations across the two continents and

polocentre.org
icshge.org
engaging various stakeholders. The proposal provided here might as well be viewed as a small step in this direction, with
specific focus to providing sustainable solutions to West Africa’s power sector challenges in a way that portrays a clear
collective commitment to SDGs.
The overall purpose of this paper is to provide a roadmap through which power sector cooperation can be facilitated in
Africa through community-led leap-frogging initiatives within the context of AAGC. This is done by starting with a literature
survey of the expanding discourse in the energy-growth-environment linkages (causality) and then highlighting the paramount
place energy and partnership with a classification or grouping of SDGs in a way that reflects their interlinkages to underpin
energy partnership for sustainable development. n A brief review of global, African and West African energy profiles is carried
out as a precursor to the estimation of energy (limited to electricity) requirements of West African countries with reference to
several benchmarks. These benchmarks are the current standard West African, SSA, African and Global kWh per capita
consumption of electricity. The needed energy, coupled with the environmental and economic costs and benefits are estimated
for West Africa based on some static assumptions. After that, the study also carried out a brief review of the evolving renewable
energy policy environment as well as on-going programs and initiatives in the region to highlight the existing gaps. And finally,
suggests the possible cooperation channels and partners through AAGC that can assist the West Africa’s leapfrogging to
renewable energy regime via community-led initiative.
This arrangement also has a bearing on serving the strategic objectives of African Development Bank’s mission of
Inclusive Growth as well as first of its High-5 priority areas of; Power Africa, Feed Africa, Industrialize Africa, Integrate
Africa and Improve Living Conditions of Africans (AfDB, 2016). For the Western side of Africa, this will go a long way in
complimenting the many sustainable energy development initiatives existing and being developed at various levels. This will
go a long way in serving the welfare of the excluded and underserved population in this region of Africa. However, all these
results can only be achieved with a carefully crafted program of engagement through AAGC.
II. SUSTAINABLE ENERGY, GROWTH & DEVELOPMENT LINKAGE

The magnitude of attention researchers accorded to the energy-growth linkage is a clear testimony for a contention worthy
of further investigation about energy use in the growth and development process. That is, energy consumption for some time
now (since the inception of industrial revolution), has secured for itself a special place amongst the determinants of growth.
The desire to determine the nature of the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption has been repeatedly
studied to either test the role of energy in stimulating growth or examine the direction of causality using the four (4) hypotheses
(see Figure 4), Ozturk (2009). One of the important features of this study area is the interconnectedness of the issues resulting
in continuous disagreement between researchers and their studies. These studies, as seen in Omrin (2014) and other reviews,
depending on year of study, time span, methodology, data used, nature as well as classification of country or countries studied,
found varying results concerning this relationship. These results as depicted in Figure 1, oscillate within and amongst
unidirectional causality (energy consumption-leads to growth: growth hypothesis or growth-leads to energy consumption and
consequent reduction in conservation efforts: conservation hypothesis), bi-directional causality (both energy and growth lead
to changes in each other: feedback hypothesis) and no causality (neither leads to change in the other: neutrality hypothesis) at
all (Isik, Dogru & Turk, 2018).
Figure 1. Energy-Growth Linkage’s Causality Hypotheses. Source: Adopted and Modified from Isik, Dogru & Turk (2018)
The continuous debate about the relationship between energy consumption and growth vis-a-vis development is ever
growing with disagreement over which is causing the other(s) - causality. Stavros, Panayiotis & Nickolaos (2018) re-evaluated
the energy-growth hypotheses for the United States for 1991-2016 and found neutrality at sectoral and unidirectional causality

polocentre.org
icshge.org
for the growth hypotheses at country level. Apart from bi-directional causality for 25 OECD countries from 1981 to 2007,
Belke, Dobnik & Dreger (2011) found the dominance of international developments on the long-run relationship between
energy consumption and real GDP through co-integration. On the GCC, an international sectoral analysis for energy-growth
hypotheses was carried out by Howarth, Galeotti, Lanza & Dubey (2017) in comparison to OECD and found strong link
(causality) in all sectors for GCC and no link in OECD. More evidence of this long-run relationship between CO2 emissions,
GDP and energy consumption with reciprocal paths is found in Asongu, El Montasser, & Toumi (2016), involving 24 African
countries in an ARDL approach. Equally, using an ARDL bounds tests, Odhiambo (2008) found a stable long-term
unidirectional energy-led growth and prima-facie causality from electricity consumption to growth in Tanzania between 1971
and 2006. Acaravci & Ozturk (2010) investigates the long-term causality of electricity consumption to economic (real GDP)
growth in 15 transition countries and found no effect or relation (causality) between the two using co-integration method.
Similar conflicting results are observed in some other energy-growth and development related issues like trade and
tourism as they are linked to energy consumption. While their findings did not explicitly stress the renewable-energy-growth
linkage, using an innovative bootstrap panel Granger causality model, Isik, Dogru & Turk (2018) examined it along with
tourism development in 7 countries. They found interdependence of tourism development and growth in Germany, tourism-
led growth in China and Turkey and growth-led tourism in Spain. Renewable energy consumption-led growth is found in Spain
and growth-led renewable energy consumption in China, Turkey and Germany, at the same time, a bidirectional relationship
in Italy and USA. The inconclusive results of the impact of trade on energy consumption linkage in OECD countries were
further studied in Topcu & Payne (2018) for the period 1990 to 2015.
A careful observation of the many studies reveals that there is also a growing extension of this discourse to into the
classification of energy into renewables and fossil as well as its environmental concerns (CO2 emissions). The determinants
of carbon dioxide emissions as they relate to climate change mitigation and sustainable growth through sustainable energy
(environment-energy-growth linkage) has been revisited by Chen & Lei (2018) using a panel quantile regression on global 30
high-emissions countries between 1980 & 2014. They found the effects of the determinants on CO2 emissions to be
heterogeneous. Renewable energy consumption is found to have limited effect, compared to technological innovation, in
reducing CO2 emission in high-emissions countries due to the smaller proportion of its use. On the other hand, it can be implied
that, the effect of RE in reducing the potential CO2 emissions in now developing countries, like those of Sub-Saharan Africa
– SSA, is at least higher than that of high-emission economies. Their recommendations of financial support for technological
innovation for transitioning from non-renewable to renewable energy to meet energy demand will undoubtedly have greater
impact in the low-emissions developing countries. This is stressed by the evidence of both short- and long-run bidirectional
causality between renewable energy consumption and economic (real GDP) growth in a panel of six Central American
countries found in Apergis & Payne (2011) for the period 1980 to 2006 using heterogeneous panel co-integration. A similar,
yet more elaborate study by same authors (Apergis & Payne, 2012) involving over 80 countries for the period 1990 to 2007
examines the relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth. With little
difference in the elasticity with respect to renewable and non-renewable energy consumption (substitutability), similar results
of bidirectional short- and long-run causality is obtained with positive and statistically significant coefficient estimates. Though
the study involved both developed and developing countries, it can be argued that, the robustness of the results is due to the
larger number of developing countries in the sample. This is because, as it was earlier established, by the implication of low
impact on CO2 emissions, long-run renewable energy-growth causality in developed countries will be limited as well, due to
their small share of renewable energy use.
Without deeper observation of this relationship with all the differences in results of causalities, the fact that causality
theory neither capture the full sustainability picture nor cater for all the interests of the different growth factions concerned is
obvious. This is especially clear when the desire for higher growth, concerns for environmental conversation and the role of
energy consumption in both are put into perspective together. In Figure 2, an attempt is made at capturing an elaborate version
of conservation causality hypothesis in the perspective of leapfrogging to renewable energy regime that is in line with the
enhancement of Energy Trilemma (discussed in Section V). In doing so, the combined concerns for environmental
conservation, energy consumption and sustainable economic growth promised by leapfrogging are captured.
This depiction attempted to capture the combined relationships between energy consumption, economic growth and
environmental conservation while leapfrogging to intensive renewable energy regime. It presents a framework that ensures
sustainability in a process which neither sacrifices economic growth nor the environment that made the growth possible as
well as ensures the climate justice required to establish growth and developmental equality. This will address the calls by
developing countries for their right to growth and development in the growth limiting sustainability debate by intensive
renewable energy in their economies.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Figure 2. Leapfrogging-based Conservation Causality Hypothesis. Source: Authors’ Design
Moreover, not only will sustainable energy bring more growth in less developed countries, studies have shown that, it is on
the way to outperforming the traditional energy systems in terms of both reducing energy intensity of growth and creating
more jobs, cleaner environment and more sustainable business future in the process (Pollin, Wicks-Lim, & Garrett-Peltier,
2009). Therefore, as seen in this section, improving the energy-growth linkage of low developing countries especially those of
SSA (West Africa in our case here), have the potential to produce higher social, economic and environmental impact. This
will further sustainably intensify the ‘catch-up’ in the growth and development convergence process suggested by Baro &
Sala-i-Martin (1992).
III. ENERGY PARTNERSHIP - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - SDGS INTERLINKS

The challenge of achieving the United Nations’ (UN) Sustainable Development Goals-SDGs in Africa and the rest of the
world depends on the success of the world in achieving goals 7: affordable and clean energy, 11: sustainable cities and
communities, 13: climate action and 17: partnership for the goals. These goals as portrayed in Le Blanc (2015)’s description
of SDGs as Network of Targets, are key to the success of the world in achieving the rest of the goals. This is particularly true,
because of the centrality of energy (Nilsson, Lucas, & Yoshida, 2013) and partnership (Dolan, A., 2011) in the growth and
development process.
This is made possible by the obvious overlap between the goals in such a way that success in one goal is instrumental to
success in other goals (Le Blanc, 2015). For instance, active Climate Action (goal 13), particularly investment in cleaner
technologies is instrumental in ensuring amongst others goals 7, 11 and 12. Investment in clean energy, as a study on clean
job titled Green Prosperity suggests, create more jobs on average, with higher incomes than business as usual (Pollin, Wicks-
Lim, & Garrett-Peltier, 2009). This in return ensures not only the environmental benefits of SDG 13, but also that of SDG 8
(decent work and economic growth). SDG 8 ensures that job and income is made available to more citizens that will work to
build the new green infrastructure needed for the renewed industry based on new clean-technology innovation (SDG 9). With
more people employed, higher demand ensues leading to more jobs and income that results in poverty reduction (SDG 1). This
automatically translates into the fulfilment of Maslow’s (McLeod, 2007) basic psychological and safety needs of food (SDG
2), good shelter (SDG 6) and better health and well- being (SDG 3) in an energy efficient manner, as well as social and esteem
needs through quality education (SDG 4) on sustainable way of life. It is only with massive sustainable realization of the basic,
social and esteem needs by a greater percentage of the population through achieving the above goals, especially education,
that inequality in both gender (SGD 5) and economy (SDG 10) can be reduced. And these two are sine-qua-non to realization
of domestic vis-a-vis global peace and justice ensured by strong institutions (SDG 16) built based on agreed upon local,
regional and international arrangements (SDG 17). Agreements and rules that ensure life on land (SDG 15) and under water
(SDG 14) can easily be developed and adopted to create the world of different respective dreams through sustainable
coordination of these partnerships.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
(a)
(b)
Figure 3. Grouping and interlinks between SDGs. Source: (a) DNV-GL, (2016) www.dnvgl.com; (b) Illustration by Authors
This analogy is not in any way disputing alternative possibilities through which SDGs can be achieved, however, the
centrality of sustainable energy and partnership cannot in any way be avoided. A very good grouping of SGDs from the DNV
GL’s Future Spaceship Earth report is presented in part (a) of Figure 3 for example, but the centrality of partnership and energy
is evident in its biosphere, society and economy classifications of the SDGs. Moreover, this classification reflects the “earth
belongs to man” thinking from which weak sustainability stems. However, another classification of the SDGs that reflects
strong sustainability that coincided with the “man belongs to earth” aspect of the famous Native American saying by Chief
Seattle is presented in the (b) part of Figure 3.A diagrammatic representation of the energy and partnership interlinkages for
SDGs is presented in this section (Figure 4).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Figure 4. Grouping and interlinks between energy and partnership SDGs. Source: Illustration by Authors
IV. LEAP-FROGGING TO THE RENEWABLE REGIME; TRANSITION

K. S. Gallagher (2006) viewed leapfrogging as constituting not only skipping over generations of technologies, but also
leafing further ahead to become technology leader in the industry. While such a huge sudden progress may not presently be
possible, renewable energy transition by way of leapfrogging in developing countries especially those in Africa will go a long
way in solving a number of problems. Apart from providing the needed energy infrastructure using new and sustainable
technologies, the advantages of avoiding environmental damages associated with fossil technologies are enormous. This is in
addition to the health benefits that are being lost under the business as usual of massive biomass cooking and kerosene lighting
of rural and semi urban life. Steady supply of clean energy in that is currently difficult in most urban areas of African countries
and other associated unobserved benefits sound a very interesting idea.
Figure 5. Leapfrogging in Power Sector. Source: Adapted from PBL (2017)

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Figure 5 adapted from PlanBureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL) 2017 perfectly serves to depict the concept here. Though
there are other ways to reach benefits promised by leapfrogging, such as insisting on old but cleanest technologies (K. S.
Gallagher, 2006), the way leapfrogging can potentially promote sustainable growth and eventually development using the most
recent and advanced technologies appears commendable. Amongst the factors that justify the argument in favour of
leapfrogging are:
 Availability of renewable energy sources and resources
 Global renewable energy market trends
 International climate interventions through the programs of the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate
Change
 Increased innovations & advances in renewable energy technologies
 Growing environmental awareness and support for climate action
 Potential spill-over benefits associated with adoption of new technologies
Apart from the generally known barriers to leapfrogging in issues of technology, finance and policies, Reddy (1991) observed
issues more related to industry practices as unwilling customers, end-user equipment compatibility, energy
carrier/producer/distributor challenges, local/national/international financial institutions etc.
V. A BRIEF GLOBAL/AFRICA’S ENERGY PROFILE

According to OECD/IEA’s Global Energy & CO2 Status Report 2017, the estimated global total energy demand for the
year 2017 is put at 14,050 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe), while Enerdata (2017) estimated for 2016, 24,660TWh and
21,190TWh for global production and consumption of electricity. It is worthy of our understandings that from the records of
World Bank close to 81% of the world’s energy and specifically electricity is coming from non-renewable sources (see Figure
6).
Consumption
Figure 6. Global Total Energy by Regions and Sources. Production Source: Enerdata (2017)
The world energy outlook from the reports of major organizations like the International Energy Agency, US Energy
Information Administration, International Renewable Energy Agency, World Energy Council, World Energy Forum etc. point
to the growing energy demand, stepping up and bright future of renewables, despite the fact that we will be stuck with fossil
energy for some time to come. With these production and consumption numbers, over 15% (over a billion people) of the world
population is currently without access to modern energy (electricity). Over 80% of the people without access to electricity live
in low income, Sub-Saharan African and South Asian developing countries.
There are over 660 million people in Africa without access to electricity, and over 750 million rely on traditional biomass
(IRENA, 2015). Out of the millions without access to electricity in Africa, about 173.3 million people (corresponding to more

polocentre.org
icshge.org
than 26% of African population without electricity access) are in West Africa. This is true despite the fact that the region has
a higher percentage of population with access to electricity than the SSA and continental averages while at the same time
having a little above 30% of the SSA and more than 26% of the continental African populations. The less than 50% population
of West Africa that has access to electricity in the continental sub-region as whole enjoys as little as 188KWh annually as
shown in table 1. This is less than half of what an average Sub-Saharan African (480kWh) enjoys, more than 4 times less than
continental average of 779.61kWh and only about 7% of the global average. These huge differences are surprisingly oppositely
reflected in GDP as West Africa accounted for more than 86% of the Sub-Saharan African GDP and almost 60% of the
continental GDP for the year 2016.
TABLE I
AFRICA’S ENERGY LANDSCAPE
Region Population GDP Access to Electricity Power Consumption
(Mil. People) (Billions of CI$/Yr)* (% of Population) (kWh per capita)
West Africa 327 1,310.00 47% 188.00
Sub-Saharan Africa 1033.15 1,512.60 37.4% 480.52
Africa 1223.32 2,186.53 45.9% 779.61
World 7442.14 75,845.12 85.3% 2674.00
Source: World Bank (2016) * CI$ stands for Current International Dollar: a hypothetical unit of currency that would buy in the cited country a comparable
amount of goods and services a U.S. dollar would buy in the United States
Another interesting way of looking at the energy profile of West Africa that is consistent with not only the sustainability
concerns we are considering here, but the equity of access and energy security is from the context of the World Energy Council-
WEC’s Energy Trilemma (WEC, 2015). The conceptual framework of the Trilemma – derived from the three core dimensions
of WEC’s definition of energy sustainability, somehow holistically captures the combined (growth, conservation and access)
challenges of the energy systems in developing countries (Figure 7).
Figure 7. Three Dimensions of Energy Trilemma? Source: https://www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Trilemma-what-is-the-energy-

trilemma.jpg
There are three reinforcing trends in the transformation the global energy sector – decarbonisation, digitization and
decentralization that energy policymakers should take into account in their progress on the Energy Trilemma (WEC, 2015).
However, the progress of African countries on the Energy Trilemma is not very satisfactory as they are all in the least 25% in
the world according to the World Energy Trilemma Index 2017 Report that quantifies and comparatively ranks 125 countries
(Table 2).
Only 25 African nations are included for the region in the ranking and eighteen of them – including all the included West
African countries, are placed out of the top 100 overall. The key challenge for the region is found to be energy access,
overcoming of which requires significant use of the region’s available resources and renewables potentials by building
institutional capacity, attracting investment to improve on-grid and off-grid energy supply (WEC, 2017). The worst performing
dimension of the region is energy equity with 21 of the 25 countries out of the top 100 in the world, while for environmental
sustainability16 out of the 25 countries achieve a ‘C’ or ‘D’ ranks. The report further observed as did many other studies that,
Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest share of population (65%) without access to electricity and generates over 70% of power
from fossils. Hence, suggested a switch away from carbon-intensive technology towards higher use of renewables despite the
inhibiting effects of the prevalence of fossil fuels subsidies to the estimated tune of $21 billion.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
TABLE II
WORLD ENERGY TRILEMMA 2016
Regions Comparative Performance
Asia 50% - Lower 25%
Europe Top 25%
Latin America & Caribbean 25% - 75%
Middle East and North Africa 50% - 75%
North America Top 25%
Sub-Saharan Africa Lower 25%
Source: WEC (2017)
Most developing countries, going by their little share of modern energy access, do not currently have the needed energy
infrastructure and hence represent the future increase in energy demand and thus CO2 emissions. Even though climate action
should be a collective responsibility, most developing countries are not currently required under Kyoto Protocol to lower their
emissions. It is therefore in the future energy interest of the developing nations and world at large to intensify the effort of
leap-frogging to renewable energy now, instead of continuing the trend of fossil energy now and later start the transition when
their emissions become alarming. This will save the developing countries the huge future environmental and economic costs
of lowering emissions as is being faced by the developed world and major emerging nations now. Therefore, understanding
the energy need and demand of these nations is important in determining the costs and benefits of leap-frogging to renewables
for the purpose of improving their growth-energy linkage.
VI. WEST AFRICAN ENERGY REQUIREMENTS; COSTS AND BENEFITS OF LEAP-FROGGING

Crucial to achieving a better energy-growth linkage through energy efficiency and sufficiency is the knowledge of energy
requirement for a given locality, country or region. It is even more important if first, a distinction is made between need and
demand before answering how much energy we need for a decent living standard. Needs are the basic fundamental
requirements for human survival, hence energy need is the minimum amount of energy required for a decent and dignified
living. On the other hand, demand as the quantity of good or services an individual is willing and able to buy at a given price
and time, hence energy demand is the quantity of energy one is willing and able to buy at a given price and time. This shows
that, due to so many reasons under present conditions, there will always be a difference between energy need and energy
demand, as not all energy need could be meet at any given price and time. From this distinction, we can set the foundation for
our analysis of energy requirement as energy need for a given country includes the basic energy requirements of all the citizens
irrespective of their ability to pay for the energy services in a given period of time. Energy demand for a given country on the
other hand, includes the quantity of energy that is being requested, paid for and supplied to the citizens at a given price and
time. With this made clear and the continuous expert economic projections that we need more energy as shown in Figure 8
from Statoil’s 2017 Energy Perspectives, how do we know how much energy we need?
Figure 8. The world will need more energy despite becoming more efficient. Source: Statoil (2017)
Answering this question is important especially with number of studies relating energy poverty to labour productivity and
ultimately the level of growth and development, thus culminating into the energy-growth discussion that is part of our focus

polocentre.org
icshge.org
here. This is truer when one looks at the historical records of how modern energy (especially electricity) brought about
significant positive changes in the growth process of developed and now rapidly developing world.
It is interesting that most models of energy demand forecasting centred on the desired GDP and population growth in
answering the energy need question. However, Dharmadhikary & Bhalerao (2016) argued that energy planning should promote
equity and better monitoring framework by linking energy to end-use and end-user directly. This argument addresses the claim
made in the Economist’s 2017 article (Shock Therapy) that more Africans have electricity, but they are using less of it, leading
to bankruptcy of most power generating companies. While the veracity of this claim is not our focus here, how and why should
Africans use the power if it is not within their access and their kind of use is not factored in the planning process. Nevertheless,
while this is a never ending debate like most others, estimation of energy needs from the perspective of end-use and end-user
sound a more justifiable and important step in the energy planning process. As such an attempt is made to estimate energy
need for West Africa narrowing down to electricity with some clear assumptions and associated economic and environmental
costs and benefits in the remainder of this section.
Energy is used in many forms, for various purposes in wide range of economic and other activities, the covering of which
is beyond the scope of this study. However, for clarity’s sake, the study conducted an activity of estimating the costs and
benefits of providing all the excluded and underserved population of West Africa with electricity from renewable sources. This
is done as mentioned earlier with a view to determine direct economic and environmental gains in terms of improving standard
of living through creation of jobs and avoiding potential CO2 emissions.
One interesting question that the activity tried to answer is, what will be the costs and benefits of giving all West African
population currently without access, and those underserved same level of access to clean electricity in the following measured
standards as shown in Table 1:
i. West Africa per capita kWh: Under this standard, the estimation is to bring out the costs and benefits of creating energy
equity around the West African standard kWh per capita to bring the excluded members of the population to same level
of energy access to those currently having access to electricity in West Africa.
ii. Sub-Saharan Africa per capita kWh: Here, the idea is to estimate the cost and benefits of creating energy equity for West
African population around the SSA kWh per capita to bring the excluded and the underserved populations of West Africa
to the same level of energy access enjoyed at the SSA kWh per capita.
iii. African kWh per capita: This is similar to the SSA estimation above, rather here it is done around the continental kWh
per capita to bring the excluded and underserved West Africans to same level of energy access to the continental average.
iv. The Global per capita kWh: Finally, on the extreme, the global average kWh per capita is used as a base for estimating
the cost and benefits of creating energy equity for West Africa. That is bringing the excluded and underserved West
African population to the level of global average electricity access.
Using recent data and holding other variables as population, time, technology etc. constant, Figure 9 depicted the following
estimates based on the sub-regional, Sub-Saharan African, continental African and global kWh per capita listed in table 1;
 the amount of power needed (power shortage/excess demand),
 the average investment in renewables needed,
 the average number of jobs to be created and
 the potential emission avoided.
For the excluded and underserved West Africans to access clean electricity at 4 different KWh per capita standards
West African Standard Sub-Saharan African Standard

polocentre.org
icshge.org
African Standard World Standard
Figure 9. Estimates of Costs & Benefits of Leap-Frogging. Source: Author’s own computations using World Bank data; Notes: * Based on the ongoing
current industry standard cost of USD1M/MW; ** Based on the global average CO2 emission of 800gms/kWh; *** Based on the average number of job
created from USD 1M renewable investment
The aim of this analysis here is to vividly see what it will take to give all excluded and underserved population of West
Africa access to clean electricity at least on the current sub-regional, Sub-Saharan African, continental African as well as
global KWh per capita standards. It should be noted that, the per capita for West Africa, Sub-Saharan and Africa as whole
were recomputed based on real share of population having access to electricity in those regions. However, it can be seen that,
for all excluded and underserved West Africans to enjoy the present 396KWh per capita of the sub-continent using renewables,
they need to produce 76.08GWh of electricity by investing about USD 6.32 billion into the renewables. While this seemed a
huge stride to go for, the benefits are worthy of the costs, as they generated at least more than 105 thousand jobs while avoiding
over 60 giga-tons(GT) of CO2 emissions. On the extreme, for all excluded and underserved West Africa’s populace to reach
the current World’s 2,674KWh per capita using renewables, the needed power to be produced in the sub-region is in the tune
of 901GWh, which require the renewable investment of more than USD74.8 billion. The associated benefits are over 1.2
million jobs and carbon savings of over 721GT. The numbers for the Sub-Saharan and African KWh per capita are in between
the two extremes. Despite these estimated benefits over the costs, the speed at which developing countries, we are considering
here, are adopting renewables and efficient technologies is not very impressive. Next section discusses power sector
cooperation possibilities within the context of Asia Africa Growth Corridor - AAGC that will greatly enhance the ability of
West African countries to face these energy challenges.
VII. WEST AFRICA’S ENERGY POLICY ENVIRONMENT

The evolving regional energy policy framework of the Economic Community of West African States - ECOWAS is
changing in favour of renewables despite the fact that a number of the member countries have large deposits of fossil energy
resources. This evident in the fact that nearly all Member States have signed, ratified and submitted their Nationally
Determined Contributions NDCs to the Paris Agreement on Climate Action. At the regional level, the integration of power
system leading to the realization of a Regional Electricity Market is an important step. But even more important is the creation
of ECOWAS Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency and mandating it with the development and implementation
of a regional renewable energy policy. This results in the development concurrently of the ECOWAS Renewable Energy
Policy – EREP and ECOWAS Energy Efficiency Policy – EEEP with the technical assistance of APC-EU Renewable Energy
Program – RECP and UNIDO on the basis of a comprehensive renewable energy baseline report. The development of EREP
and EEEP is underpinned by several recent regional and international energy policy initiatives. These included amongst others
the ECOWAS White Paper on a Regional Policy for Increasing Access to Energy Services in Peri-Urban and Rural Areas by
2015 and United Nations Sustainable Energy for All – SE4ALL. Included within the EREP and EEEP is a comprehensive
action plan that was adopted since 2012 by the ECOWAS Ministers of Energy and implementation is ongoing with the aim of
helping Member States develop their National Renewable Energy Policies and corresponding Action Plans. Most relevant here
is the first of the two prime visions of the EREP: Universal access to electricity by 2030, with the aim of increasing the
renewable share in the region’s overall electricity mix to 35% by 2020 and 48% by 2030 using three groups of targets set for
achieving that:
i. grid-connected renewable applications,
ii. off-grid and stand-alone applications, and
iii. domestic renewable energy applications,
ECOWAS’ commitment to these targets was renewed and heightened with their adoption by the Authority of the
ECOWAS Heads of States and Governments in 2013 and the subsequent development of National Renewable Energy &
Energy Efficiency Action Plans by Member States. This is being achieved by using the regional framework for the
development, implementation and monitoring of National Renewable Energy Action Plans - NREAPs, National Energy

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Efficiency Action Plans – NEEAPs and SE4ALL Action Agendas developed by ECREEE, discussed and adopted by Member
States in 2014.
As of August 2017, the Executive Director of ECREEE confirmed in an interview that, apart from National Action Plans,
10 Member States have published their Investment Prospectus and the rest 5 are expected by to be finalized by the end of the
year. The challenge of converting these plans into projects and programs is being addressed by the Centre through series of
programs in collaboration with development partners at both regional and national levels. These include; Capacity
Development Programs, Knowledge Management and Awareness, Investment and Business Promotion, Specific Projects and
Programs. The most challenging of these is the investment and business promotion program that aims at mitigating financial
barriers to the investment in small, medium and large-scale renewable projects. Two investment initiatives were set up in
collaboration with financial institutions and private companies namely: ECOWAS Renewable Energy Facility for small
projects and ECOWAS Renewable Energy Investment Initiative for medium to large scale projects. The main issue with these
programs is that, while they are set out promote the bankability of renewable energy projects in the region, the huge and
growing energy demand in the region is undermining their successes. This is compounded by the inability of the local project
developers to formulate a viable proposal with sound technical and economic feasible portfolio that attracts investors and
financiers. Hence most of the renewable energy projects in the region are carried out by International NGOs whose modes of
operations usually misses the local content thus undermining the success as well as the overall impact of the projects. Another
major challenge for International Developers is the length of time it took to complete the approval process, for example a
submitted to Global Environment Facility in 2013 was approved for implementation after almost 3 years from its first day of
submission. This brings out the existing gaps in the renewable energy development efforts in the region, which at the same
time provides an opportunity for mutually beneficial collaboration. These gaps can be viewed from the perspectives of the
needed increase in power generation to improve not only access but also the low level of per kWh consumption of the regions
before looking at industrial applications of renewables.
VIII. AAGC: POWER SECTOR COOPERATION POSSIBILITIES

Building from the findings here first from the perspective of energy-growth-environment causality literature survey that
renewable energy has higher growth and environmental impact in lesser developing countries than more advanced one.
Secondly, that there are interlinkages between SDGs and the centrality of energy and partnership in most, if not, all SDGs
serve as a case for energy partnership. Thirdly, based on the first finding, leap-frogging proves to be the best way to go for
slowly developing countries as there are more economic and environmental benefits that far outweighs the costs. This is further
compounded by, finally, growing enabling policy environment coupled with the gaps in the existing combined efforts of
various local and international renewable power initiatives in the region in serving the power requirements of the excluded and
underserved population. Hence, the recommendations for power sector cooperation within the context of AAGC for the
purpose of contributing to the ongoing efforts of ending energy poverty in West Africa are valid and justified.
This is an unusual opportunity for AAGC, where Asia (India and Japan in particular) and Africa can join resources in
such a way that, different interests of the different regions are mutually met. The advantage of this arrangement is based on
the fact that, most of these West African countries are among those listed as least developed countries. Most of these countries
enjoy the no-quota no-tariff policies of the advanced economies, now India and China included, towards LDCs. They are also
potential beneficiaries of the EU carbon trading policies, for international carbon offset under which, only carbon credits from
these categories of countries are acceptable. Therefore, India’s experience in Clean Development Mechanism as second largest
owner of these projects and receiver of CERs in the world (UNFCCC, 2016) coupled with its strong international development
partnership with Japan (a technological and financial might Campbell (2017)), as well as the ever growing commitment to the
global south will be instrumental in serving West Africa’s power needs in a mutually beneficial engagement.
For the guarantee of positive outcomes from power sector cooperation through AAGC, a very simple but comprehensive
program that independently complements the different existing and evolving clean energy initiatives in the region is
paramount. Such a program is proposed here under the AAGC’s West African Community Based Commercial Mini Grid
Clean Power Projects. The strategy is to operate multitude of a very small capacity Hybrid Mini-Grid power projects at the
minimum government recognized community levels. The rationale for this strategy is backed by some motives that are both
the reasons behind the short life span as well as non-execution of most development projects in many regions of Africa. These
issues formed the majority of the concerns raised in Pueyo & Bawakyillenuo (2017) as one of the most recent and compressive
studies with specific findings peculiar to different regions of the continent. Hence they stand to contribute to providing the
needed solutions to ensure power projects’ speedy execution, longevity and sustainability as follows:
A. Corruption, Bureaucracy and Speed of Execution
Most big power projects require the approvals of federal or national governments for subsidies and huge loan guarantees,
which involves long bureaucratic processes within which corruption tendencies are innate. This delays and sometime hinders
all together the execution of the projects as has been witnessed with so many projects in the past. For example, in Nigeria,
between 2010 and 2017 several solar power projects MoUs and contracts of various capacities have been signed at both states
and national level, but to date, no single large scale solar power project have featured in the list of power plants in the country.
However, small community mini grid power projects have higher chances of survival and speedy execution, particularly with
the arrangement proposed here.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
B. Ownership & Control

This is the most important of two, as it is the lack of sense of ownership or control that fuels slapdash attitude of
communities’ members towards projects that are designed and deployed to serve their needs. This is not only limited to rural
communities as it is common to find in the cities, a small problem that the community can fix being left to continue to hinder
the smooth project operations, until government or project owners come its rescue. The underlining belief that outsiders have
come whether from out of the country or other part of the country or the state play a very vital role in winning the support of
locals towards the continuous success of any endeavour. However, when a project of whatever magnitude is perceived by the
community as its own child, then nothing within their capacity will stop the continuous running of such a project.
C. Differences in Beliefs & Customs
Though not as salient as control and ownership, cultural differences play a subliminal but important role in ensuring the
success or otherwise of projects in African communities. Cultural and religious practices of the local community, when imbibed
in the development stages of the projects has the very high tendency of making such a project a success. For example, there
are traditional practices in some communities that may require carrying of certain rituals before a particular project is started
so as to receive the needed ancestral blessings that guarantee the success of any endeavour. Equally in some other areas,
religious beliefs have gone deep to hinder the needed support from the community towards the success of the project. This is
particularly due to the nature and manner in which some aspects of the project are carried out (e.g. interest based financing for
Muslims). However, when such customary and religious beliefs are taken into consideration in both project design and
execution; an overwhelming community support is won. Therefore, it is important to have a proper profiling in terms of
customs and beliefs of communities in the design and execution of projects under AAGC intervention. With these issues now
cleared, the main program is hereby proposed.
IX. CONCLUSION: WEST AFRICAN COMMUNITY-BASED COMMERCIAL MINI GRID CLEAN POWER PROGRAM
In line with the 4 pillars of AAGC, the principles of South-South Cooperation and centrality of capacity building in India’s
development cooperation, this program is proposed to achieve the following 3 key objectives:
 Community capacity building and support in technology and access to the local and international infrastructure
financing (Using Expanded Barefoot Solar Mama Model)
 Harmonizing the local practices with regional and international initiatives
 Technical collaboration for research, development and innovation
To achieve these objectives, the following activities may be carried out in a commercial public-private partnership
business model:
 Setting up of a Solar panel manufacturing plant in West Africa: With no new evidence of scale effects on cost of
manufacturing of solar panels, an alternative option is to have multiple panel manufacturing locations strategically
distributed based on the expected demand from the respective locations. But this is dependent on availability of
investment as capital intensity is found to be the major barrier to scale panel manufacturing (Powell, Fu, Horowitz,
Basore, Woodhouse, & Buonassisi (2015)) and the availability of willing local partners, which is usually a major
challenge not only in energy but other sectors (CII/WTO, 2013)])
 Setting up of strategic Teams of Local Mini Power Project Development Assistants-LMPPDAs: looking at the number
of clean jobs to be created by adopting leap-frogging and based on the evolving policy environment and initiatives, the
magnitude of the need for capacity building cannot be over emphasized. This is particularly important considering the
size of the policy targets, the efforts needed to achieve them and the available capacity currently in the region. As
reflected by the nature of the operations of international renewable project developers in the region, there are no signs
of increasing capacity that match the growing demand at the current and projected pace of economic growth in the
region.
 Setting up of a Clean Mini Grid Coordination-CMGC Secretariat to monitor the activities the LMPPDA: Impact
assessment as South-South Cooperation feedback mechanism is essential and even more important is the
implementation and monitoring that enable course corrections in the event of mismatch between observed and actual
realities on ground of a particular project execution process. Equally providing the needed guidance and handholding
for the Teams of LMPPDAs via a technical cooperation and partnerships, an area India has a significant competitive
advantage.
With these three in place, the needed ingredients are in place to engage in the process of developing local power projects
based on the peculiarities of the communities in question. This will be done in a business model that enables the communities
to set-up a community power project companies-CPPC in technical partnership with the nearest AAGC’s LMPPDA with the
guidance of the AAGC’s CMGC Secretariat. The CPPC will be owned by the able members of the community and guided by
AAGC’s LMPPDA on how to generate needed seed capital and secure financing for their power project from various sources
within their reach. They will also be guided in designing their Mini Grid Power Projects in line with the requirements of various
national, regional and international clean energy policies and initiatives. The solar panel manufacturing plant will be supplying
the needed solar panels at best competitive price to these projects so as to enhance their costing and viability. In this

polocentre.org
icshge.org
arrangement, the possibility and sustainability of these projects will be substantially enhanced in such a way that, they will be
able to win financing bids from national and international financiers. AAGC’s CMG Power Projects will provide the highest
possible impact on the lives of the community members by drastically contributing to reducing the number of those excluded
and underserved with electricity. An effective model may be a hybrid of Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG), Feed-in-Tariffs and Rent
a Roof fashioned to fit the Net-Metering or any other government programmes to cater for the different financial capabilities
of the community members. Different models have recorded a number of successful projects in both rural and urban
municipalities. These are observed in a number of case studies in remote villages of Africa and small Islands in Asia to be
proving a viable alternative to grid extension in helping communities gain access to electricity (USAID, 2018). In Africa for
example, Power Africa, through the U.S. Trade and Development Agency (USTDA), is helping Standard Microgrid expand
to 150 additional sites to provide affordable power to remote customers through financially viable mini-grids. In total, Power
Africa added about 7200MW to the Africa’s generation capacity in 10.6 million connections with about 53 million
beneficiaries by 2017, a good share of which is in mini-grid systems (Power Africa, 2017). While in India, the Remote Village
Electrification Programme (RVEP) and the Village Energy Security Programme (VESP) under MNRE electrified more than
12,700 remote villages and hamlets (MNRE 2013). In addition to these, two most successful models of mini-grids implemented
by government agencies in India are those implemented by West Bengal Renewable Energy Development Agency (powering
around 10,000 households in West Bengal) and CREDA (powering around 35,000 households in Chhattisgarh) (GNESD,
2014)]. The success of this models in a number of countries apart from India, not overlooking the few cases of roof-rights
disputes, will undoubtedly match the estimation of IEA, that mini-grids supported by these models will have to provide around
40% of the new capacity by 2030 with largest percentage in SSA (IEA, 2014). To achieve targets like this, there is the need to
start doing the work by now through programmes like this.
When this is realized, as set out from the beginning, the level of labour productivity will be enhanced in those communities
affected, particularly from the savings to be made from cost of generating electricity using small or big generators. This is
because, electricity is at the centre of modern production and access to steady affordable power is the key challenge of most
African communities (WEC, 2017). Air and noise pollutions will be reduced in the busy local markets, through which health
will be improved. The combined effect of these improvements will cumulatively improve the energy-growth linkage of the
communities, and if combined across the countries will enhance the growth of these countries as established previously in
Apergis & Payne (2012). It is being observed that on average renewable energy consumption has more effect on growth of
low energy consuming developing countries than those of high energy consumers (Chen & Lei, 2018). Also, out of the USD
93 billion projected by the World Bank for Africa’s, almost half is needed for it power supply infrastructure. The combined
economic and environmental benefits are enormous particularly for the communities affected and the region and the world at
large.
APPENDIX
ESTIMATES OF ELECTRICITY LEAP-FROGGING COSTS & BENEFITS
For the excluded and underserved West Africans to access
clean electricity at KWh per capita of:
West African SSA African World
Descriptions Standard Standard Standard Standard
Power Shortage (GWh) 76.08 106.67 215.06 901.58
Investment Required to reach the respective standard (Hundreds of Millions of USD) * 63.15 88.53 178.50 748.31
CO2 Emissions Avoided on reaching the respective standard (GT) ** 60.87 85.33 172.05 721.26
Potential Jobs on reaching the respective standard (Tens of Thousands)*** 10.55 14.79 29.81
124.97
Source: Author's own computation using World Bank Data; * Based on the ongoing current industry standard cost of USD 1M/MW; ** Based on the global
average CO2 emission of 800gms/KwH; *** Based on the average number of job created from USD 1M renewable investment; Estimation Methodology: In
arriving at these estimates, the per capita kWh values were first recomputed to showcase the real per capita based on the share of population with access to
electricity. After that, the population was divided into excluded and underserved, from where the difference power shortage is computed by multiplying the
population without access and the newly computed real per capita kWh for West African standard case. In the remaining three cases, an additional level of
calculation is added, where the difference between the recomputed real per capita kWh and the standard per capita in question is computed and used in
calculating an addition to the power shortage for the underserved population. The power shortage for the underserved is computed from this difference in per
capita kWh and added to the power shortage of the excluded population to arrive at the total power shortage based on that standard per capita kWh.
REFERENCES
Acaravci, A., & Ozturk, I. (2010). Electricity consumption-growth nexus: evidence from panel data for transition countries. Energy Economics, 32(3), 604-
608.
Apergis, N., & Payne, J. E. (2011). The renewable energy consumption–growth nexus in Central America. Applied Energy, 88(1), 343-347.
Apergis, N., & Payne, J. E. (2012). Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption-growth nexus: Evidence from a panel error correction
model. Energy Economics, 34(3), 733-738.
Asongu, S., El Montasser, G., & Toumi, H. (2016). Testing the relationships between energy consumption, CO 2 emissions, and economic growth in 24
African countries: a panel ARDL approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 23(7), 6563-6573.
Barro, R. J., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (1992). Convergence. Journal of political Economy, 100(2), 223-251.
Belke, A., Dobnik, F., & Dreger, C. (2011). Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the cointegration relationship. Energy
Economics, 33(5), 782-789.
Campbell, J. (2017). Poised for partnership: deepening India–Japan relations in the Asian century.
CII/WTO (2013). India-Africa: South-South Trade and Investment for Development.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Chen, W., & Lei, Y. (2018). The impacts of renewable energy and technological innovation on environment-energy-growth nexus: New evidence from a
panel quantile regression. Renewable Energy, 123, 1-14.
Cohen, S., Demeritt, D., Robinson, J., & Rothman, D. (1998). Climate change and sustainable development: towards dialogue. Global Environmental
Change, 8(4), 341-371.
Dharmadhikary, S., & Bhalerao, R. (2016). How Much Energy Do We Need?
DNV-GL, (2016). The future of spaceship earth. Retrieved from https://www.dnvgl.com/technologyinnovation/spaceship-earth/index.html
Dolan, A. (2011). The meaning of partnership in development: Lessons in development education.
EIA, (2014). International Energy Outlook 2014, Energy Information Administration, USA.
Enerdata (2017) Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2017 @ https://yearbook.enerdata.net/total-energy/world-energy-production.html
GNESD. (2014). Renewable energy-based rural electrification: The Mini-Grid Experience from India. New Delhi: Prepared by The Energy and Resources
Institute (TERI) for the Global Network on Energy for Sustainable Development (GNESD).
Hurrell, A., & Sengupta, S. (2012). Emerging powers, North–South relations and global climate politics. International Affairs, 88(3), 463-484.
Hussen, A. M. (2004). Principles of environmental economics. Psychology Press.
Howarth, N., Galeotti, M., Lanza, A., & Dubey, K. (2017). Economic development and energy consumption in the GCC: an international sectoral
analysis. Energy Transitions, 1(2), 6.
Isik, C., Dogru, T., & Turk, E. S. (2018). A nexus of linear and non‐linear relationships between tourism demand, renewable energy consumption, and
economic growth: Theory and evidence. International Journal of Tourism Research, 20(1), 38-49.
Kourtzidis, S. A., Tzeremes, P., & Tzeremes, N. G. (2018). Re-evaluating the energy consumption-economic growth nexus for the United States: An
asymmetric threshold cointegration analysis. Energy, 148, 537-545.
Le Blanc, D. (2015). Towards integration at last? The sustainable development goals as a network of targets. Sustainable Development, 23(3), 176-187.
McLeod, S. (2007). Maslow's hierarchy of needs. Simply Psychology, 1.
MNRE. (2013). Remote Village Electrification Programme (as of 30 June 2013). Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Government of India, New
Delhi. Retrieved from http://mnre.gov.in/file-manager/UserFiles/physical-progress-of-RVE-programme.pdf. Last accessed 30 December 2013.
Nilsson, M., Lucas, P., & Yoshida, T. (2013). Towards an integrated framework for SDGs: Ultimate and enabling goals for the case of
energy. Sustainability, 5(10), 4124-4151.
Odhiambo, N. M. (2009). Energy consumption and economic growth nexus in Tanzania: An ARDL bounds testing approach. Energy Policy, 37(2), 617-
622.
OECD/IEA (2018) Global Energy & CO2 Status Report 2017 Available @: http://www.iea.org/geco/
Omri, A. (2014). An international literature survey on energy-economic growth nexus: Evidence from country-specific studies. Renewable and Sustainable
Energy Reviews, 38, 951-959.
Ozturk, I. (2010). A literature survey on energy–growth nexus. Energy policy, 38(1), 340-349.
PBL (2017) Leapfrogging towards low-carbon electricity systems: consequences of global climate policies, Netherlands Environmental Assessment
Agency’s Infographic | 05-07-2017. Available at: http://www.pbl.nl/en/infographic/leapfrogging-towards-low-carbon-electricity-systems-
consequences-of-global-climate-policies
Pollin, R., Wicks-Lim, J., & Garrett-Peltier, H. (2009). Green prosperity: How clean-energy policies can fight poverty and raise living standards in the
United States (No. green_prosperity). Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
Roper, J. (2012). Environmental risk, sustainability discourses, and public relations. Public Relations Inquiry, 1(1), 69-87.
Szabó, S., Bódis, K., Huld, T., & Moner-Girona, M. (2013). Sustainable energy planning: Leapfrogging the energy poverty gap in Africa. Renewable and
Sustainable Energy Reviews, 28, 500-509.
TEEB (undated) The “Planet” SDGs underpin the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB).
Accessed @ http://www.teebweb.org/sdg-agrifood/annex-3/ on 25.04.2018
The Economist (2017) Shock therapy: More Africans have electricity, but they are using less of it.
Topcu, M., & Payne, J. E. (2018). Further evidence on the trade-energy consumption nexus in OECD countries. Energy Policy, 117, 160-165.
UNECA (United Nations Economic Commission for Africa). 2017. Urbanization and Industrialization for Africa’s Transformation. Addis Ababa.
UNFCCC (2016). Clean Development Mechanism – CDM Projects Registry. United Nations Framework on Climate Change.
https://cdm.unfccc.int/Projects/projsearch.html
WEC, 2015. The 2015 World Energy Trilemma: Priority actions on climate change and how to balance the trilemma report. World Energy Council &
Oliver Wyman. 2015.
WEC, 2017. World Energy Trilemma Index 2017: Monitoring the Sustainability of National Energy Systems. World Energy Council in Partnership with
Oliver Wyman. 2017.
Pueyo, A., & Bawakyillenuo, S. (2017). Introduction: Overcoming the Constraints to Clean Electricity in Africa. IDS Bulletin, 48(5-6).
Powell, D. M., Fu, R., Horowitz, K., Basore, P. A., Woodhouse, M., & Buonassisi, T. (2015). The capital intensity of photovoltaics manufacturing: barrier
to scale and opportunity for innovation. Energy & Environmental Science, 8(12), 3395-3408.
Power Africa (2017). Annual Report 2017: How the Electrify Africa Act of 2015 is Lighting Homes, Powering Businesses, and Creating Jobs in the United
States and Africa. Report of a U.S. Government-Led Partnership.
USAID. (2018). Mini-Grids Case Studies. Avail. @ https://www.usaid.gov/energy/mini-grids/case-studies Accessed on 08.05.2018.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Global Voice for Survival: An Ecosystemic Approach for the

Environment and the Quality of Life
Pilon, A.F.
International Academy of Science, Health and Ecology, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; gaiarine@usp.br
Abstract—In view of the overwhelming pressures on the global environment and the need to disrupt the systems that drive
them, an ecosystemic theoretical and practical framework is posited for the evaluation and planning of public policies, research
and teaching programmes, encompassing four dimensions of being-in-the-world (intimate, interactive, social and biophysical),
as they combine, as donors and recipients, to induce the events (deficits/assets), cope with consequences (desired/undesired)
and contribute for change (potential outputs). The focus is not on the “bubbles” of the surface (consequences, fragmented
issues), but on the configurations deep inside the boiling pot where the problems emerge. New paradigms of development,
growth, power, wealth, work and freedom, embedded at institutional level, include heterogeneous attributes, behaviours and
interactions and the dynamics of the systems (institutions, populations, political, economic, cultural and ecological
background). Instead of dealing with the bubbles (segmented, reduced issues) and trying to solve isolated and localized
problems without addressing the general phenomenon, the proposal emphasizes the definition of the problems deep inside the
“boiling pot”, where the problems emerge, encompassing the current “world-system” with its boundaries, structures, techno-
economic paradigms, support groups, rules of legitimation, and coherence. In the socio-cultural learning niches, heuristic-
hermeneutic experiences generate awareness, interpretation and understanding beyond established stereotypes, from a thematic
(“what”), an epistemic (“how”) and a strategic (policies) point of view. The proposal relates to how taken for granted
worldviews, values and perceptions affect environmental problems and quality of life.
Keywords—education, culture, politics, economics, ethics, environment, ecosystems
I. INTRODUCTION
C ONTEMPORARY problems are closely interconnected and interdependent, and cannot be understood and solved within
the present context of weakening social bonds and cultural, political and economic clashes (Elohim, 2000), a generous
ground for market-place’s manipulations, publicity-oriented interests, fragmented academic formats and private manoeuvres.
As a syndrome, not a set of separate phenomena, they reflect the interrelated pressures, stresses, and tensions due to an overly
large world population, a pervasive and increasingly systemic environmental impact of economic activities, urbanization,
consumerism, widening the gap between rich and poor, within and between countries (McMichael, 2013). The present crisis
is a sign of the severe cultural predicament of our times and reflects the deceptive manoeuvres and collusions of political and
economic dominant groups 1, a prior disordering of thought, perceptions and values (Orr, 1994), the stronghold of national and
international corporate interests, which break through the core of all societal institutions. Deforestation, desertification, global
warming, biodiversity losses are linked to powerful economic and political interests, which define every aspect of humanity
and nature as part of the market rubric (Irwin, 2007), legitimising business expansion in terms of consumerism and abuse of
natural resources 2 - increasing inequalities, violence and poor quality of life throughout the world. Environmental impact
studies should not be treated as a mere formality, development strategies rooted in mega-projects disregard fundamental human
needs and ignore the principle of "right relationship", which respects the integrity, resilience, and beauty of human and natural
environments as the foundation for a new economic order (Brown and Garver, 2009). In "asymmetrical societies" (Coleman,
1985), large differences in power between natural persons and legal persons (individuals and enterprises), allow business
corporations to have a substantial influence on public policies and State affairs, as they diffuse responsibility along hierarchical
structures and safeguard their shareholders as mere investors in the financial markets 3. Privatisation and deregulation reduce
the role of governments at national and international levels, and hence weaken mandatory powers over environmental
standards; the dominant approach to the environment by corporate, state and international authorities shows that present
conditions are outcomes of the undesirable impacts of overall policies and market conditions (Robbins, 2004).
The current “world-system” has boundaries, structures, member groups, rules of legitimation, and coherence; “it is made
up of the conflicting forces which hold it together by tension and tear it apart as each group seeks to remould it to its advantage;
it has a life-span over which its characteristics change in some respects and remain stable in others” (Wallerstein, 1974: p.
347-57). Trying to solve isolated and localized problems, without addressing the general phenomenon (which has the
conditions to solve specific problems), is a “conceptual error" (Volpato, 2013). The purpose is to move away from human
behaviour approaches (Shove et al, 2012) and techno-economic paradigms that obscure government’s role in sustaining
unsustainable economic institutions and ways of life. The conceptual direction and the legitimacy of development strategies
1
According to the Reflection Group on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the sustainable development goals are being used not as a roadmap
for social, economic and environmental transformation, but as a vehicle to entrench inequitable power relations: wealthy elites and rich multinational
corporations translate their economic power into political access and influence government decisions.
2
Our resources are being rapidly transformed into useless garbage, some of which is obvious to the naked eye, but most of which escapes awareness. The
smaller portion can be seen in garbage dumps and other visible waste. By far the larger portion can be thought of as "molecular garbage" - consisting of the
vast quantities of tiny particles that are daily spewed out into the earth's air, water and soil (Robèrt, K.H. (1991).)
3
The current global corporate economy subordinates environmental standards to what are presented as “requisites” for “free” global trade and proprietary
“rights” by the World Trade Organization (Sassen, 2010); multi-actor, multi-level and multi-sector structures interfere with state steering and governmental
practices throughout the world. Mainstream environmentalism is dangerously obsessed with getting people to 'save the planet' while doing other things -
shopping, looking cool, or just mindlessly getting on with life (Crompton, 2013).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
should be based on a comprehensive framework; instead of surrendering to specialisation and fragmentation, a “new global
covenant” should be carefully planned (Held, 2004), emphasizing social justice, physical, social and mental wellbeing and the
equilibrium between natural and built environments.
Figure 1. Consequences of current socio-political-economical systems for the quality of life.
Figure 2. The real problems lie deep inside the boiling pot, not in the bubbles (effects).
The environmental crisis (Figure 1) “stems from the prevailing power-driven ethos, the anomic individualism, which
divert human concern into technological invention, scientific advancement, and unlimited material consumption and
production” (Orhan, 2003). The focus should not be on the “bubbles” of the surface, (consequences), but on the configurations
deep inside the boiling pot (Figure 2). These bubbles have dynamic properties (Pilon, 2009), they co-exist among many others
in a cluster, as the collection of all factors affecting health, environment, working conditions, economy, education, culture,
etc.; each bubble is influenced directly by a companion bubble's interface but also indirectly through the companion bubble's
connections to other surfaces (Wilcox 2007). Cultural, educational, social, economical, environmental and health problems
cannot be sorted out by segmented projects, without considering micro, meso and macro relationships. Like bubbles in the
surface of a boiling pot, segmented problems are symptomatic of the assemblage of political, economic, social and cultural
variables that should be dealt with altogether. The role of law, the work of attorneys and judicial courts is hampered by the
very system in which they have their insertion, "legal" and "illegal" strategies are mixed together in the assemblage of political
and economical interests; powerful lobbies, deeply ingrained in the public administration, favour mega-projects with intensive
use of resources, rather than the appropriate technologies. Beyond profit-searching motives of business corporations and other
vested interests, transboundary issues like human rights, pollution, deforestation, drugs and criminality impose a significant
reconfiguration of state control and political authority, in which power must be shared on ethical grounds in a transnational
basis, by transnational organisations.
To cope with environmental collapse 4, environmental justice should be extended beyond national boundaries, beyond
4
According to Girardet (2015), we need to start thinking of regenerative rather than just sustainable development; instead of “Anthropocene”, the next era in
human history should be named “Symbiocene”, from the Greek symbiosis, or companionship (Albrecht, 2016).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
political and economical interests of malicious consortia and corrupted or lenient governments, which easily comply to ill-
intentioned propaganda and lobbying by influential groups and questionable business organizations. Territorial and
jurisdictional aspects are fundamental in terms of governance (Ashley, and Crowther, 2012); political and cultural forces blunt
our response to the growing complexity of ecological catastrophe (Buell, 2003), which cannot be understood or resolved
without dealing with deep-seated problems within society and its amoral political-economical system (Bookchin, 1982). Legal
procedures will not forestall the planned obsolescence of products designed for the dump, nor the perceived obsolescence
fostered by propaganda induced consumerism, which arise in people the sensation that products should always be substituted
by new ones, buying and disposal converted into rituals of a culture that makes consumption a way of life (Foster and Clark,
2012). Transboundary and global environmental harm present substantial challenges to state-centred (territorial) modalities of
accountability and responsibility; the globalization of environmental degradation has triggered regulatory responses at various
jurisdictional scales to address “accountability deficits” in global environmental politics” (Mason, 2008). Cultural and
educational policies succumb to the prevailing political and economical interests, converting the population into consuming
subjects, appropriating their thoughts and bodies as commodities of influential people and questionable business corporations,
which use propaganda, lobbying and corruption to intensify profits and secure their hegemony over public affairs.
The cultural environment, a common ethical ground, is more important than the best legal prescription: the focus should
not be on consumer’s behaviour, but on the economic and political background, on the marketing and advertising impact of
mass-media in public opinion about products, services and lifestyles, on its social and cultural embeddedness. The emphasis
on human rights, rather than collective political action, only reiterates individualistic approaches (Harvey, 2005). The
fundamental change is economic, social, cultural and political; priority should not be given to growth, but to sustainability,
human development, order and stability in civil society: if one group gets richer, others can be used and discarded (Bown,
2007). Addressing structural exclusion through legal, social, or economic inclusion, such as civil rights, social norms, or the
market-oriented educational system in view of the expansion of the middle class do not change the bigoted paradigms of
development, growth, power, wealth, work and freedom embedded into the political, economic and cultural institutions.
“Social inclusion” only accommodates people to the prevailing order and do not prepare them to change the system (Labonte,
2004); once “included", a new wave of egocentric producers and consumers (Chermayeff and Tzonis, 1971) reproduce the
system responsible for their former exclusion, increasing the abuse of nature in the name of “progress”. Growth, power, wealth,
work and freedom must acquire new meanings (O’ Sullivan, 1987). The accumulation of wealth to the exclusion of other
components of the development process (safety, health, education, equity, ethics, justice, beauty) has led to natural devastation
and severe social and cultural impacts, with high levels of crime and violence in the so called “emerging countries”.
Privatisations, deregulations, market-oriented reforms, resulted in relinquishing state's control to the huge power of private
sectors; new technological waves will not rescue a devastated environment, nor relieve the effects of inequities, uprootings,
displacements, hunger, violence, ecological insults and deep social division (Am. Anthr. Assoc., 2005).
When the political, economic, cultural and ethical disarray normalizes or condones inequities, transgressions, violence
and atrocious behaviours, questions of ethical, moral and overall civic education are frequently left aside, while information
and communication technologies are presented as a panacea for all evils. Within one generation, the gap due to the loss of
value systems (specially religion and ideology) has been filled by the prevalent ideology of the market; in the lack of an
alternative value system 5, religious biased sects, in the urban areas, reinforce the idea that political and economic success, in
the current system, is a sign of divine blessing.
In many problem-ridden, economically unequal and intrinsically violent cities of emerging countries, most people become
uninvolved in civic life due to the outspread criminality (Baiocchi, 2005): while some enjoy life in fortified enclaves most of
the city dwellers live in makeshift slum housing, without the basic social services (health, education, police authority, etc.) 6.
This goes along with turmoil, uncertainty, lack of confidence, fear and impotence (Rotmans and Loorbach, 2009). The more
the city concentrates the necessities of life the more unliveable it becomes; the notion that happiness is possible in a city, that
urban life is more intense, pleasure enhanced, and leisure time more abundant is only mystification and a myth (Lefebvre,
2003). Development proposals, technological “solutions”, often ignore social, cultural and environmental impacts, binding
nature as natural capital with financial domains (Sullivan, 2013), demanding even more resources and increase pollution and
waste without changing the irrational system of production, transport and consumption that plagues the world 7.
Advances in applied ethics by thoughtful and innovative thinkers encompass different professions, working together,
within a multidisciplinary approach, basing their action on some common principles of ethics and on an understanding of each
other’s obligations, responsibilities and professional standards (Soskolne, 1997). Development as plunder (White, 1999;
Trainer, 2000), implies systemic risks (Giddens, 2001), global catastrophes (Bostrom, 1997), simultaneous crisis formation
(Harvey, 2006), global and integral accidents (Virilio and Turner, 2005), total risk of catastrophe (Ewald, 1997), general
5
Environmental culture boldly unmasks the institutional and systemic violence of our culture and reveals how our culture's life-destroying practices and
ethical and spiritual bankruptcy are closely linked to our failure to situate ourselves as ecological beings (Plumwood, 2002). Heinzerling & Ackerman (2004),
criticize the use of cost-benefit analysis in setting environmental policy, on the ground that there is a profound mismatch between ethical values and economic
valuation. Teaching ethics do not thrive in highly corrupt societies.
6
Poor quality of life, urban violence, urbanization processes governed by real estate interests, concentration of jobs in distant areas, are inextricably
intertwined. Nothing more visibly reveals the overall decay of the modern city than the ubiquitous filth and garbage in its streets, the noise and massive
congestion that fills its thoroughfares, the apathy of its population toward civic issues and the ghastly indifference of the individual toward the physical
violence (Bookchin, 1979).
7
Who decides what is information and what is lobbying for money? Promoters of multi-billion-dollar development megaprojects systematically misinform
parliaments, the public and the media in order to get them approved and built; they often avoid and violate established practices of good governance,
transparency and participation in political and administrative decision making (Flyvbjerg, B., Bruzelius, N. and Rothengatter, W., 2003).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
disaster (Massumi, 2003), the worst unimaginable accidents (Beck, 2007). If pressures on systems steadily increase,
“catastrophic bifurcation” can appear without obvious early warning signals 8, and the resulting changes are always difficult to
reverse; understanding how such transitions come about in complex systems such as human societies, ecosystems and the
climate is a major challenge (Scheffer et al., 2001). “Sustainability” based on capital and technology, cannot be a substitute
for the resources drawn from the natural world: “strong sustainability” entails containing population growth and curbing
consumption, meeting the needs of the current generation as opposed to their demands and living within the productive capacity
of nature (Layzer, 2008). Development must be based on the satisfaction of fundamental human needs, on growing self-
reliance, on the construction of organic articulations of people with nature and technology, of global processes with local
activity, of the personal with the social, of planning with autonomy, and of civil society with the state (Max-Neef, 1991).
Weak public institutions and deeply entrenched networks act together to prevent accountability, funnelling finance and
influence along unofficial channels for the benefit of corrupt groups; politicians participate in governmental processes
primarily to secure and retain access to personal enrichment at the expense of the public good (Whitton, 2009). Impersonal
institutions and formal rules, creating trust at systemic (versus idiosyncratic) levels and reducing individual marginal
transactions in a relationship-based regulation system, is mandatory to a major institutional change: institutions for risk-sharing
at a systemic level decrease individual risk and allow longer time horizons” (Meisel, 2004). Institutions provide the rules of
the game in society, the humanly devised constraints that shape human interaction (North 1990); they stabilize the behaviour
and interaction of agents, create predictability and decide how authority is constituted, exercised, controlled, and redistributed
(March and Olsen, 1989). Environmental issues cannot be assessed ignoring questions of wealth and power and the divergent
priorities which beset politics (Rabkin, 2008). Private consumption at the cost of nature is to a large extent a cultural activity
linked to the emergence of the knowledge economy, “with returns in the form of profits instead of wages” (Huppes, 2008).
Cross-cutting programmes on sustainable development imply a worldwide change of focus and procedures in different areas
of production, distribution, consumption and discard. This is not only a matter of education 9, but of governance and societal
organization against entrenched economic and political forces that are too powerful to succumb to a direct attack by “civil
society” or “global citizens movements” (Winston, and Edelbach, 2014).
II. AN ECOSYSTEMIC APPROACH FOR PUBLIC POLICIES, RESEARCH AND TEACHING

Understanding a problem is to understand the relationships between the events and the context in which these relationships
occur. People with different values interpret the "same" evidence in different ways (Kahan, 2012), the information has a minor
role compared to emotions, values and ethics (Etzioni, 2003; Dietz, 2011). The enlightenment ideal that “informed” people
opt for the common good is still a philosophical ideal. Ecological behaviour is linked to positive social involvement: in contrast
to “extrinsic” goals, like money, image and status (which are means to other disputed ends), “intrinsic” goals are inherently
gratifying to pursue, like self-acceptance (growing as a person), affiliation (having close, intimate relationships), community
feeling (helping the world be a better place) (Kasser & Ryan, 1996). Change depends on a critical, collective and connective
intelligence of systematic and systemic aspects of organisational change: there is a tendency for significant challenges (such
as education for sustainability) to be understood and accommodated within the norms of the existing system 10, rather than
change it according the challenge (Sterling, 2009). Education as a whole, and environmental and sustainability education in
particular, are limited in their ability to make a positive difference to assure a sustainable future (Sterling, 2003). Whilst
environmental education in schools help to normalise environmental values, children will take cues for appropriate behaviour
from the media, peer group and society as a whole (Bedford, 2002). Education is both a great hope and a great danger: it can
develop questioning, innovation and creativity, enable to recognize the powerful forces that drive unsustainable living and
develop self-confidence and organizational skills, but it can also play the opposite role, deadening curiosity and innovation;
encouraging acceptance of unsustainable living as being normal; and to passively wait for others to take action (UNECE,
2013). Education does not prosper in a context of social fragmentation and weakening social bonds: creation of choices,
generation of capacities, development of motivations depends on cultural, social, political and economic aspects; the quality
of institutions and incentive structures are more critical than the quality of individual motives and morals (Krol, 2005).
Preparing people to assume their positions in society, both as professionals and citizens, cannot be reduced to ritualistic
actions, such as voting or paying taxes, nor can it encourage an uncritical ideological allegiance to the "free-market",
transforming schools in training centres for compliant egocentric producers and consumers, instead of centres of critical inquiry
and institutional change. In the ecosystemic approach, instead of trying to adapt to droughts, floods, air pollution, land
degradation, deforestation and rising sea levels, that inevitably will lead to overall catastrophe, it is posited that we should deal
with the present paradigms of growth, power, wealth, work and freedom embedded into the cultural, social, political and
economic institutions.
8“
Solastalgia” is a neologism describing a form of psychic or existential distress caused by environmental change (Albrecht, 2012).
9“
The devolution of responsibility for sustainability to citizens, in their roles as consumers on the free market, has failed to produce significant change; even
those most committed to sustainable living confront structural barriers that they do not have the power to overcome” (Isenhour, 2010). People no longer
learned their cultural identity from their family, schools, churches and communities but instead from "a handful of conglomerates who have something to sell"
(Gerbner, 2001).
10
Monetizing nature, marketization of environmental “goods”, tends to undervalue non-quantitative social, aesthetic, and ethical aspects of the natural world
(Unmüßig, 2014). Data revolution is too technocratic and if we don’t address power dynamics behind this ‘revolution’ it will not be transformational
(Frecheville, 2014).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
TABLE I
DIMENSIONS' EQUILIBRIUM IN THE ECOSYSTEMIC MODEL OF CULTURE
Donors
Recipients INTIMATE INTERACTIVE SOCIAL BIOPHYSICAL
INTIMATE Creativity Support Services: Vitality
INTERACTIVE Altruism Teamwork Alliances Niches
SOCIAL Citizenship Partnerships Organisation Spaces
BIOPHYSICAL Care Defence Sustainability Equilibrium
TABLE II
DIMENSIONS' DISRUPTION IN THE NON-ECOSYSTEMIC MODEL OF CULTURE
Inflictors
Victims INTIMATE INTERACTIVE SOCIAL BIOPHYSICAL
INTIMATE Solipsism Subjection Neglect Harm
INTERACTIVE Egotism Fanaticism Co-opting Dispersal
SOCIAL Abuse Corporatism Tyranny Extinction
BIOPHYSICAL Injury Damage Spoliation Savageness
TABLE III
INTERTWINING THE FOUR DIMENSIONS OF THE WORLD IN THE DIAGNOSIS AND TREATMENT OF THE PROBLEMS
Stages of Process INTIMATE INTERACTIVE SOCIAL BIOPHYSICAL
People's Dynamics of Cultural Aspects Conditions
Diagnosing Cognitive and Affective Primary Groups Social Structure of Natural and Built
the Events Deficits and Assets Communities’ Public Policies Environments Beings and
Existential Control Organisation Services Things
Promoting Improving Public Policies Quality of Natural and Man-
Eliciting Peoples’ Educational and Relationships Social Networks Law Enactment Made Environments
Favourable Cultural Community Building Social Control Beings and Things
Changes Development Civic Action
Well-Being Proactive Groups Community Social Movements Equilibrium Between
Evaluating Awareness Solidarity Well-Fare Policies Natural and
the Process Resilience Cohesion Social Trust Man-Made Environments
of Change Creativity Citizenship
Creation of choices, generation of capacities, development of motivations depends on the configurations formed by the
assembly of four dimensions of being-in-the-world (Pilon, 2010), intimate, interactive, social and biophysical, as they combine
to induce the events (deficits/assets), cope with consequences (desired/undesired) and contribute for changes (potential
outputs). The equilibrium (Table I) or disruption (Table II) between the different dimensions are linked to opposite models of
culture (ecosystemic or non-ecosystemic); the process of change encompasses a synchronized work with the four dimensions
of being-in-the-world 11, considered altogether in view of an integrated approach to public policies, research and teaching
programmes (Table III). Relationships with fellow beings encompass the concepts of group and grid: the former refers to the
clarity of the boundaries around a group to which people belong; the latter to the strength of the rules which govern how people
relate to one another: hierarchical societies with strong ties score highly on group and grid; individualist or market-driven ones
are weak on both (Douglas, 1996). The United Nations Decade for Education for Sustainable Development emphasized critical
thinking and problem solving, interdisciplinary and holistic multi-method, values-driven approaches, environmental
principles 12, social awareness, ethical dimensions, economic prudence, confidence and participatory decision-making
(Lindberg, 2005). To create awareness and capabilities beyond schemes of thought, feeling and action, subjective and objective
realities should be entangled, creating an “excess of meaning” (Gadamer, 1977), encompassing the alien that we strive to
understand and the familiar that we take for granted (Figure 3), which implies a process of socialisation, externalisation,
combination and internalisation (Nonaka and Konno, 1998). “Semiotic niches" are embedded in the same “semiosphere”,
representations of external reality (“mental models”), filter information and store it, as complex and dynamic systems to reason
and make decisions, consolidating behaviours (Jones, 2011). Arguing about values is useless, but realizing the significant role
values play in judgments lead to more constructive discussions and decision-making (Ackoff, 2010).
In the socio-cultural learning niches 13, the individual and collective projects of life are unveiled and dealt with by
heuristic-hermeneutic experiences; intermediary objects (curious things, images depicting everyday life), are presented to the
participants to generate awareness, interpretation and understanding beyond established stereotypes. The contributions of the
11 “
Being-in-the-world” encompasses four modes of existence (Binswanger, 1963): man’s relationship with himself (Eigenwelt); man’s relationship with his
fellow beings (Mitwelt); man’s relationship with overall society (Menschenwelt); man’s relationship with his environment (Umwelt). Interaction requires that
actors be aware of each other’s actions, and that they adjust their own behaviour (and possibly their own goals), taking the behaviour of the others into account
(Hanneman, and Riddle (2005).
12
Criteria to evaluate risks (precautionary principle): probability of occurrence, extent of damage, incertitude, ubiquity, persistency, reversibility, delay effect,
potential of mobilization. (Klinke & Renn, 2001)
13
To understand how people create and experience their lives (Watson & Till, 2009), it is necessary to unveil the epistemic cultures which structure how we
know what we know about the environment (Knorr Cetina, 1999). Niches are new structures, protective spaces for “path breaking innovations”, having three
functions in the wider transition processes: “shielding, nurturing and empowering” (Smith and Raven, 2012): a small core of agents emerges within the system
as the incumbent for innovation and emergent structures stimulate further niches’ development and niche-regimes (Frantzeskaki and Loorbach, 2009).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
participants (Table IV) are analysed from a thematic (“what”), an epistemic (“how”) and a pragmatic (strategies) point of view,
encompassing the emphasis and inclusiveness of contents in the different dimensions (“thematic”) 14, the structure of thought
embedded into subject-object relationships (“epistemic”) 15 and the actions embedded in the outputs (pragmatic). The
methodology is experiential and reflexive, “reality” is revealed in a specific space-time horizon of understanding, feeling and
action: subject-object relationships are unveiled (intimate dimension), statements are shared (interactive dimension), setting
the ground to examine different forms for being-in-the-world (social and biophysical dimensions).
TABLE IV
STATEMENTS OF THE PARTICIPANTS OF A SOCIO-CULTURAL LEARNING NICHE IN VIEW OF SELECTED OBJECTS
Group A Group B
1) Half shell; organic/inorganic; nature/human made; solid/flexible. 1) Box having within: three bottle caps tied up by an elastic string (it may
2) Found objects; shell/stones; artefacts; a collection of diverse objects not suggest interaction, integration, inter-personal communication,
belonging to any category. horizontality); a seashell, three pink stones (it may suggest compartment,
3) Objects of nature are more beautiful and interesting in form than are non-integration between parts); a ribbon of paper with the inscription: how
manufactured articles - but the metal caps may suggest that nature provides many parts have a grain? (it may suggest the type of information discussed
in many ways - even when unanaesthetic. interaction).
4) Sharp and smooth texture; manipulate. 2) This box (and maybe others) remembers me of my childhood and a
5) Contents: world, rocks from ocean, trash caps, city from modern society, beloved aunt, who kept photos and others belongings in it. I feel the smell
black stones, forest plant; the contents represent global communities: rural, of sea in the stones and in the alga. I don't know how many parts there in a
urban, forest, islands. seed., but nevertheless it would contain the production of life. The link
6) Three black seeds, three elastically connected bottle caps, three white between the objects means the link with other people and the basis of social
relations. "Keeping" in the box means to keep people, to keep carefulness,
river stones and a heart shaped, dried, open seed pot lay in a white
rectangular open top plastic container; remains of living plants, time worn preserving relations that became intense.
rocks and man-made metal objects represent earth materials. 3) The box deceived me, I expected much for so little. I thought it cold, it is
not; heavy, but no. I don’t like it, it is smooth, opening it I thought of a
7) Different shapes, sharp objects, smooth, multi-national corporations, dry.
jewel-case; new sensations: white little stones, similar to those in the river
8) Natural food and junk food; moderation - nature's way and mass
where I work; united bottle caps, but for children.
consumption; voluntary simplicity, consumerism. sustainability,
extinction/destruction. 4) Curiosity, boredom, impatience, beach, sea, chilled water, patience,
questions and answers, sand, anxiety, to solve, "Maria Chiquinha", children
9) I wonder what type of music these items make; was/is the heart-shaped
songs, China, Japan, grains, quantity, immensity, plenitude, rest, tiredness.
thing good to eat; what are the little "black beans", how were the holes
drilled in the pop tops? what kind of soda are the two unfamiliar? 5) Feeling of anguish in view of the time; inside each of us there are simple
and complex things; their development will help us to grow as people.
The objective is not to solve taken for granted problems, but to unveil and work with the dynamic and complex configurations
that originate them: instead of being trapped into the path-dependency of pre-established problem-definitions 16, the heuristic-
hermeneutic work 17 develop a capacity to ask wider questions, reframing the problems in the process.
Figure 3. Heuristic-hermeneutics processes in the socio-cultural learning niches.
The process implies many changes, transformations, reconsiderations, revisions, and signiﬁcant expansions in concepts
and ideas; as a process of exploration, inquiry, and discovery – rather than a recording or a re-presentation of an already
14
1) intimate dimension (knowledge, values, feelings, beliefs, commitments); 2) interactive dimension (allegiances, solidarity, partnerships, leadership); 3)
social dimension (public policies, citizenship, advocacy, mass-media); 4) biophysical dimension (vital needs, natural and built environment, territory,
artefacts).
15
1) Appropriation: construction of new paradigms for being-in-the-world, cognitive, affective and conative changes; 2) Common-sense: conformity to
established, stereotyped, common sense conducts, without further questioning. 3) Scholarlike: reduction to logical categories and frozen schemes to achieve
closure, classifying and describing; 4) Dependency: reliance on exterior authority to qualify own experience; alienation, bewilderment, confusion,
inconsistency. 5) Resistance: opposition to being involved, failure to see any meaning in the experience. 6) Dogmatism: adherence to fixed paradigms and
ways of being-in-the-world.
16
Beyond the anthropogenic views, that do not distinguish between the whole of the human beings and the destructive action on nature of the political-
economic establishment (governments and business corporations), we should consider the power asymmetries, that confer to a small and privileged part of
the world population the decisions about the destiny of the entire mankind.
17
1) Intimate Dimension: subject-object relationships are unveiled by images or objects selected to catch the eye (bottle caps linked by a string, etc.);
participants register their perceptions in a non-identified piece of paper; 2) Interactive Dimension: statements are distributed out of sort, read aloud, shared,
and enriched; Social and Biophysical Dimensions: present and future forms of being in the world are analysed in view of ecosystemic and non-ecosystemic
models of culture, encompassing the natural and man-made environments, the relationships between ecosystems, beings and things. Analysis explains how
the pieces of the system work, synthesis raises the comprehension of the interactions between its parts (Kull 1998).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
established and ﬁnalized position – it builds the ground to create new paradigms for being-in-the-world. Collective practices,
according to evolutionary theories of change, may be selected by the social environment rather than by individual dispositions;
cultural evolution is linked to the role played by human intervention, which entails intelligence, purpose, calculation, planning,
learning, arguing, persuading, discussion, and argument (Nelson, 2005). “Environmental education” and “development
education” needs the construction of a “new story for mankind”, enhancing, human rights and justice, local and global
citizenship, supporting the efforts to understand and transform the social, cultural, political and economic structures affecting
life at personal, community, national and international levels (Irish Aid, 2007).
In view of epistemological and ontological dimensions for knowledge creation (Nonaka, 1994), teaching for meaning, in
a cultural context that values only information transmission, is one of the main challenges for education in our times (Figure
3); to salvage the realm of character and moral development, the present ethos should not centre on individual good and
individual value alone, but on the environment and the public space 18, as a global system (Boostrom, 1997). It includes
education for citizenship, that it not reduced to formal or ritualistic actions, v. g., voting or paying taxes, nor can it encourage
an uncritical ideological allegiance to the "free-market", transforming schooling in training centres for a compliant work force,
which takes for granted the perverse life style of “egocentric producers and consumers” (Chermayeff and Tzonis, 1971). The
industrial culture divides the person into parts and the world into fragments; environment is one whole, it is not cut up into
specialties, disciplines and departments (Drengson, 1995), it requires boundary-crossing skills, abilities to change perspective,
to cope with complexity and to synthesize different disciplines or areas of expertise in a critical and creative way (Fortuin et
al., 2008).
Education and mass media are affected by vested interests, intolerance and violence; news media institutions, due to
political economic pressures, are bound to the dominant paradigm and its key actors. To bridge the gap between human design
and the ecologically sustainable systems of nature (UNESCO-EOLSS, 2008), we need to redesign technologies and social
institutions to counteract the current paradigms 19.
Environmental awareness is not simply awareness of the natural environment but also of social, economic, cultural and
other dimensions; it requires ‘dynamic’ skills to discover and study the environment and find solutions, capacity to discern the
relevant dimensions of a situation, readiness to accept responsibility, initiative taking, independence, commitment (Hugonnier,
2008). It means reorganizing to produce more of the things that people need — like food, shelter, clothing, education, security,
health care — and less of the costly things they do not — like military hardware, pollution, traffic jams, useless chattels and
crime 20. Failures in governance at many levels, and the resulting suspicion and mistrust, clearly also play a role in the current
state of affairs 21. Rational decision-making based on "facts" is no longer defensible; emotions, values and ethics play a much
stronger role than mere information, education requires a knowledgeable and congruent teaching and learning ground, a core
element for comprehension, preparedness and action, abilities to participate in, influence, share and control the learning process
(Tilbury et al., 2005). People with different values draw different inferences from the same evidence (Kahan et al., 2012);
development, and utilization of concepts, tools and practices must take into account the collective forms of being-in-the-world;
citizen-consumer's potential to alter natural consuming habits, to 'shop ethically, 'care for the environment' and 'think globally'
depends on social motivation rather than rational choice (Klintman, 2012). Culture define the knowledge of the past and the
expectations for the future: it shapes individual and collective identities, affect the impact of innovations and social change,
construct the social meanings of technologies, create new boundaries, new forms of social exclusion and marginality, frame
experience of space and place in everyday life and individual and collective identities (Sociology of Culture Conference, 2010).
Beyond the objectivistic description of facts or dissemination of information, acceptance of ethical norms, peace building,
environmental equilibrium requires a host of ethically interpreted and ordered social experiences, a capacity to develop morally
relevant interests as the bases of rights-bearing, a broad, universally cultural knowledge (Znaniecki, 1935). Trans-disciplinarity
does not only combine views or merge ideas, but questions the “givens”, it forces the “detachment” from ones’ familiar
discipline, culture, and belief; it is not a denial of initial identities, nor complete attachment to the alternative, but “a new
awareness, a distance from the world before any type of analysis” (Takashi, 2010). What are the prospects of education as a
whole, and environmental and sustainability education in particular, regarding the severe threats faced by today’s world?
Identifying complex configurations that predict particular outcomes asks for an analysis of assumptions, contentions,
consensus and conflicts, which are essential to the definition of the problems and to build new paradigms to live better in a
better world. “Education for sustainability” includes international development, economic development, cultural diversity,
18
Global governance can only be legitimized from ethical principles, in which the character of people and organizations constitutes the fundamental element
for the changes, not just by the development of capabilities, knowledge and skills (Paehlke, 2004).
19
Consumerism as concept cannot be attacked using ethical formulations and cannot be understood outside of the socio-technical systems (Holt, 2012);
economic groups that support “development” strategies are the same worldwide: banks, agribusiness, contractors, mining companies; in the teeming cities of
today buildings tower to the sky while problems are getting worse: environmental catastrophes, criminality, corruption, vested interests: “sustainable
development have become part of the so-called problem-industrial complex: societal regimes that are dependent on sustaining ’problems’ such as waste
production, sickness, fossil energy and so on” (Loorbach, 2014).
20
We should not persist in speaking about development within the current political-economic frame of reference, but persist in speaking about changing the
current political-economic frame of reference; Gehl (1996) distinguishes between necessary/functional activities, which take place regardless of the quality
of the physical environment, and optional/recreational activities and social activities, which depend to a significant degree on what public places have to offer
and how they make people behave and feel about them; different values are at play, especially cooperation not competition, and frugality and self-sufficiency,
not acquisitiveness and consuming (Trainer, 2010).
21
Monetising or valuing nature turns it into a commodity, the economic invisibility of resource depletion and pollution leads to systemic failures in all public
spheres of decision, green innovations and new practices (in behaviour and policy) face an uphill battle, played out on economic, technical, political, scientific,
and cultural dimensions: transport, energy, agri-food systems, stabilized by vested interests and favourable institutions lead to path dependence and
entrapment: (Sustainability Transitions Research Network (2010).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
social and environmental equity, human health and wellbeing. In order to deal with sustainable development in both
environmental and cultural terms we need a theory of cultural sustainability, since the concept of sustainability implies a
holistic approach to modelling economic, biological and cultural processes (Throsby, 2008). Media “popularisers” should draw
attention to the “issues on environmentalism and culture as significant and important in symbolic and visual terms, emphasising
different incentives for taking positive action, and getting institutional support to ensure both legitimacy and continuity in the
process” (Hannigan, 1995). Well-being is not simply an individual attribute, but a profoundly social relational phenomena 22.
University teaching is vital in maintaining a social conscience based on self-awareness and self-transformation, for
preparing people to assume key positions in society, both as professionals and citizens; the discussion of current problems
should transcend traditional disciplines and national boundaries, in the light of global perspectives, international cooperation,
transdisciplinary research and teaching programmes. Despite the number of institutions addressing environmental degradation
and sustainable development, environmental problems have been exacerbated rather than solved; international environmental
governance lacks co-ordination and is at odds with other areas of global governance, notably economic and development
governance (United Nations University, 2010). The development and evaluation of teaching programmes, research projects
and public policies should contribute for the transition from a non-ecosystemic to an ecosystemic model of culture, taking into
account the configurations formed by the ensemble of the four dimensions of being in the world in the origin and denouement
of the events, in terms of a forecasting framework (Figure 4). The process of change must be associated with an ecosystemic
model of culture, leading to public action to transform development policies and structures that wipe out biodiversity, destroy
natural and built environments, abuse landscapes and resources, demolish living-spaces and generate unmanageable refuses
that menace the future of life on Earth 23. Privileged elites will not voluntarily relinquish their exalted status, nor remove their
hand from the levers of power; they “essentially capture regulatory agencies that should operate in the public interest,
engineering the laws that legitimize their corrupt actions and reinforce their control” (Rees, 2011).
Figure 4. The process of change implies a synchronized work with the four dimensions.
Operating under the rubric of "the global economy", international oligarchs, looking out only for their interests, have no
fixed return addresses and continue immune to our control 24 ; a concerted action by public and private sectors, social
organisations, scientific and technical institutions, requires that the various parties cease to defend their vested interests in
benefit of a real change in the current world system. The demons that haunt our condition will not disappear while they are
embedded in the same building blocks of our society; since «change is the only permanence, and uncertainty the only certainty»
(Bauman, 2000), current prospects should not be taken for granted, and we should persist to focus in the foregoing definition
of desirable goals and the exploration of new paths to reach them. To bring about new ways to understand things and create a
critical capacity to operate change in the forms of being-in-world, new paradigms of growth, wealth, work, power and freedom
(O’ Sullivan, 1987) should be embedded into the educational, cultural, economic and political institutions, and fostered in
teaching and learning socio-cultural niches, in view of its proper characteristics and a new semiosphere.
III. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

As by-products of the prevailing models of culture (ecosystemic or non-ecosystemic), ethics, education, culture, natural
22
It would take only three to five percent of elites at the top of influence (military, economic, political, educational and cultural: media, arts, entertainment)
to shift the mindset of the larger population (Collins and Makowsky, 2009). Due to the process and resulting outcomes of the ascendance of business interests,
values and models in public policies, research and teaching programmes (“corporatization”), the mediaeval custom of selling ’indulgences’ is retrieved today
by paying money to make up for ’green sins’, for ’climate compensation’ (instead of eliminating social malpractice from production and supply chains).
23
Atkinson (2015), combines agent-based modelling (capable of capturing heterogeneous attributes, behaviours, and interactions of individuals) and system
dynamics modelling (which captures population-level, ecological influences, and whole system dynamics). To moral and democratic education (Lind, 2003),
more important than the need for a radically different economy, is to change current values, notably the present commitments to competition, individualism
and acquisitiveness, and the conception of progress (Trainer, 2001). Market induced policies conceive fashion stylists as relevant as Shakespeare, a footballer,
a value equal to Michelangelo, a rapper, not less than Stravinsky; this cultural relativism is the result of a demagogic, pseudo democratizing cultural policy,
which does nothing more than to dissolve culture in a "everything is culture"; in the absence of the State, culture is reduced to a mere commodity (Finkielkraut,
1987).
24 “
Civil society with its networks of voluntary and community organisations is a far more palatable partner for neoliberalising states than the unions; it can
be incorporated into state projects, and provide links into dispossessed and alienated communities that are abandoning the institutions of representative
democracy” (Davies, 2016); the neoclassical monopoly at university departments of economics with its ideological features is not compatible with normal
ideas about democracy (Söderbaum, 2016).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
and man-made environments, physical, social and mental well-being should be supported by societal structures and integrated
in an overall context of quality of life (not treated as separate “projects” 25, objects of segmented programmes). The ecosystemic
approach, as an integrated theoretical and practical holistic proposal, encompasses different domains (governance,
environmental sciences, social sciences, politics, economics, anthropology, psychology, education, public health, ethics) and
can be applied to different problems of difficult settlement or solution in the contemporary world. Public policies, teaching
and research programmes, nowadays segmented in different domains, should consider the configurations intertwining the
different dimensions of being-in-the-world, strengthening their connections and sealing their ruptures, in view of their dynamic
equilibrium. coherent public policies, research and teaching programmes would:
1) define the problems in the core of the “boiling pot” in view of a holistic, ecosystemic framework, instead of reducing
them to the bubbles of the surface (effects, fragmented, taken for granted issues);
2) combine the four dimensions of being in the world (intimate, interactive, social and biophysical) in the diagnosis and
prognosis of the events, assessing their deficits and assets, as donors and recipients;
3) promote the singularity of (identity, proper characteristics) and the reciprocity (mutual support) between all dimensions
in view of their complementarity and dynamic equilibrium;
4) prepare the transition to an ecosystemic model of culture to deal with the problems of difficult settlement or solution
in the world, a condition for consistency, effectiveness and endurance.
Can we imagine a world in which transnational governance systems, wise and impartial international regulators, would
have the authority to implement the right set of norms and policies to safeguard humanity’s cultural inheritance, natural and
built environments, aesthetic and lifesaving values for future generations?
REFERENCES
Ackoff, R. L. Differences That Make a Difference: An annotated glossary of distinctions important in management. Triarchy Press, Axminster, 2010.
Albrecht, G.A., The Age of Solastalgia. August 7, 2012 [on line]: https://theconversation.com/the-age-of-solastalgia-8337
Albrecht, G.A., Exiting the Anthropocene and Entering the Symbiocene, Minding Nature, 2 (9): 2016. http://www.humansandnature.org/exiting-the-
anthropocene-and-entering-the-symbiocene
American Anthropological Association, Bringing the Past into the Present, 104th Annual Meeting, Washington, 2005.
Ashley, P. A. and Crowther, D. Territories of Social Responsibility. Opening the Research and Policy Agenda, Gower Publ., Surrey, 2012.
Atkinson, J-A et al., A modelling tool for policy analysis to support the design of efficient and effective policy responses for complex public health
problems, Implementation Science, 2015, 10: 26 [on line]: http://www.implementationscience.com/content/10/1/26
Baiocchi, G. The Citizens of Porto Alegre. Boston Review, March/April 2005. [online]: http://bostonreview.net/BR31.2/baiocchi.html
Bauman, Z. Liquid Modernity, Cambridge: Polity, 2000.
Beck, U. Cosmopolitan Vision, Polity Press, Cambridge, 2007.
Bedford, T. Parliament Committee on Environmental Audit. United Kingdom, 2002. [online]:
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200203/cmselect/cmenvaud/472/3022702.htm
Binswanger, L. Being-in-the-World: Selected Papers of Ludwig Binswanger. Condor Books, London, 1963.
Bookchin, M. The Ecology of Freedom. Knopf, New York, 1982.
Bookchin, M. Limits of the City, Black Rose Books, Montreal, 1996.
Boostrom, R. Teaching by the Numbers, in Burbules, N. C. and Hansen, D. T. Teaching and its Predicaments. Westview Press, Boulder, 1997: 45-64.
Bown, L. What do we Mean by Development? Development Education Centre [Birmingham] and Educating and Acting for a Better World [Ireland], 2007
[online]: http://www.developmenteducation.ie/files/resources/What.pdf
Brown, P. G. and Garver, G Right Relationship: Building a Whole Earth Economy, Berrett-Koehler Publishers, San Francisco, 2009.
Buell, F. From Apocalypse to Way of Life: Environmental Crisis in the American Century; Routledge, 2003.
Chermayeff, S. & Tzonis, A. Shape of Community, Realization of Human Potential. Middlesex, Penguim Books, 1971.
Coleman, J. The Asymmetric Society, New York, Syracuse University Press, 1985.
Collins, R. and Makowsky, M. The Discovery of Society, McGraw-Hill, New York, 2009.
Crompton, T., SLRG/CES Seminar, University of Surrey, WWF-UK. 2013 [on line]: http://www.sustainablelifestyles.ac.uk/event/green-consumerism
Davies, J. S., Why network governance won’t stop climate change, INOGOV/Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research [online]:
http://www.inogov.eu/blog-why-network-governance-wont-stop-climate-change/
Dietz, T., The Art of Influence, Nature, 479, 176: 2011
Douglas, M. Natural symbols: explorations in cosmology, Routledge, New York, 1996
Drengson, A. The Practice of Technology: Exploring Technology, Ecophilosophy, and Spiritual Disciplines for Vital Links. Suny, Albany, 1995.
Elohim, J. L. The Performance of the World System. A Critical Viewpoint in Parra-Luna, F. The Performance of Social Systems: Perspectives and
Problems. New York, Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, 2000.
Etzioni, A., Toward a New Socio-Economic Paradigm, Socio-Economic Review, 1, (1) 105-118: 2003. Available at SSRN:
http://ssrn.com/abstract=2157130
Ewald, F. Le retour du malin genie. Ésquisse d’une philosophie de la précaution. In Godard, O. and Long, M. Le principe de précaution dans la conduite
des affaires humaines. Association NSS-Dialogues. Editions Quae, 1997.
Finkielkraut, A., La défaite de la pensée, Paris, Gallimard, 1987.
Projects are engineering challenges that can be controlled and managed as schemes to be applied and monitored via indicators and checklists, rather than
25 “
as innovations to be questioned; evaluative thinking involves thinking about the way(s) we reason, plan and act, it is a way of viewing the world, an ongoing
process of critical reflection on, and appraisal of, assumptions and claims” (Schwandt et al., 2016).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Fortuin, K. P. J. et al. The European Workshop: a course aimed at educating students to cross boundaries. Engineering Education in Sustainable
Development (EESD) Conference, Graz, 2008 [online]: http://www.esa.wur.nl/NR/rdonlyres/B2FA6130-462D-43BF-8D67-
B797439AA538/70366/030908_paper_Fortuin_Bush_Henriksen.pdf
Foster, J. B. and Clark, B. The Planetary Emergency, Monthly Review, 07 (64), 2012 [on line]: http://monthlyreview.org/2012/12/01/the-planetary-
emergency
Flyvbjerg, B. et al. Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2003.
Frantzeskaki, N. and Loorbach, D. A transition research perspective on governance for sustainability, In: European Research on Sustainable Development,
2009. [online]: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226482740_A_Transition_Research_Perspective_on_Governance_for_Sustainability
Frecheville, N., What’s missing from the data revolution? People, 2015 [posted on line]: http://post2015.org/2014/02/06/whats-missing-from-the-data-
revolution-people/
Gadamer, H. G. Philosophical hermeneutics. University of California Press, Berkeley, 1977.
Gehl, J. and Gemzøe, L. Public Spaces and Public Life, Danish Architectural Press, Copenhagen, 1996.
Gerbner, G., The Cultural Arms of the Corporate Establishment: Reflections on the Work of Herb Schiller, Journal of Broadcasting & Electronic Media, 1
(45): 186 – 190: 2001.
Giddens, A. The Global Third Way Debate.: Polity Press, Cambridge, 2001.
Girardet, H., Creating Regenerative Cities, Routledge, Abingdon, Oxon: 2015.
Hanneman, R. A. and Riddle, M. Introduction to Social Network Methods. University of California, Riverside, 2005. [online]:
http://www.faculty.ucr.edu/~hanneman/nettext/
Hannigan, J. A. Environmental sociology, a social constructionist perspective. Routledge, London, New York, 1995.
Harvey, D. A Brief History of Neoliberalism. Oxford University Press, 2005.
Harvey, D. Spaces of Global Capitalism: Towards a Theory of Uneven Geographical Development. Verso, 2006.
Held, D. Global Covenant: The Social Democratic Alternative to the Washington Consensus. Cambridge: Polity, 2004.
Holt, D. B., Constructing Sustainable Consumption. From Ethical Values to the Cultural Transformation of Unsustainable Markets, The ANNALS of the
American Academy of Political and Social Science, 3, 2012 [on line]: http://ann.sagepub.com/content/644/1/236
Hugonnier, B. Education for Sustainable Development in OECD Countries: Opportunities and Challenges. Workshop on Education for Sustainable
Education, OECD, Paris, 2008 [online]: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/39/12/41308608.pdf
Huppes, G. Eco-efficiency: From focused technical tools to reflective sustainability analysis. Ecological Economics, 68 (6), 2009: 1572-1574.
Irish Aid Development Education: An Introduction. Irish Foreign Office Publication, 2007 [online]:
http://www.irishaid.gov.ie/Uploads/Irish%20Aid%20and%20Development%20Education.pdf
Irwin, R. ‘After Neoliberalism’: Environmental Education to Education for Sustainability, Conference Presentation, Philosophy of Education Society of
Australasia, 2007 [on line]: http://www.academia.edu/3123057/After_Neoliberalism_Environmental_Education_to_Education_for_Sustainability
Isenhour, C. Building Sustainable Societies: Exploring Sustainability Policy and Practice in the Age of High Consumption, Ph. D. Dissertation, University
of Kentucky, 2010 [on line]: http://uknowledge.uky.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1000&context=gradschool_diss
Jones, N. A. et al. Mental Models: An Interdisciplinary Synthesis of Theory and Methods, Ecology and Society, (16) 1; 46, 2011 [online]:
http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss1/art46/
Kahan, D.M. et al. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, 2, 732–735, 2012.
Kasser, T., & Ryan, R. M. Further examining the American dream: Differential correlates of intrinsic and extrinsic goals. Personality and Social Psych.
Bulletin, 22, 280-287, 1996.
Klinke, A. & Renn, O. Precautionary principle and discursive strategies: classifying and managing risks, Journal of Risk Research, 2, (4) 2001: 159-173.
Klintman, M. Citizen-Consumers and Evolution: Reducing Environmental Harm through our Social Motivation, Palgrave Macmillan, 2012.
Knorr Cetina, K., Epistemic Cultures. Harvard University Press, 1999.
Krol, G.-J. Environmental problems, morals and incentives in modern societies. Institute of Economic Education, University of Münster, 2005 [online]:
http://www.wiwi.unimuenster.de/ioeb/downloads/forschen/Krol/EnvironmentalProblems.pdf
Kull, K. On Semiosis, Umwelt, and Semiosphere. Semiotica, 3/4 (120), 1998: 299-310 [on line]: http://www.zbi.ee/~kalevi/jesphohp.htm
Labonte, R. 2004. Social inclusion/exclusion: dancing the dialectic. Health Promotion International, 19 (1): 115-121.
Layzer, J. A. The Environmental Case: Translating Values into Policy. Sustaining Cities: Environment, Economic Development, and Empowerment
Conference. MIT Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 2008 [on line]: http://mitworld.mit.edu/stream/572/
Lefebvre, H. The Urban Revolution, University of Minnesota Press, 2003
Lind, G., The meaning and measurement of moral judgement competence revisited - A dual-aspect model. In: D. Fasko & W. Willis, Eds. Contemporary
Philosophical and Psychological Perspectives on Moral Development and Education. Hampton Press, Cresskill, 2003.
Lindberg, C. The UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development. UNECE High-Level Meeting of Environment and Education Ministries, Vilnius,
2005. [online]: http://www.unece.org/env/esd/HLM.intervent/UNESCO.Carl.doc
Loorbach, D., To Transition! Governance Panarchy in the New Transformation, 2014 [online]:
http://www.drift.eur.nl/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/To_Transition-Loorbach-2014.pdf
March, J. G. and. Olsen, J. P. Rediscovering institutions: the organizational basis of politics, Free Press, 1989.
Mason, M. The Governance of Transnational Environmental Harm: Addressing New Modes of Accountability/Responsibility. Global Environmental
Politics (8) 3: 8-24, 2008.
Massumi, B. A User’s Guide to Capitalism and Schizophrenia: Deviations from Deleuze and Guattari. MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass. 2003.
Max-Neef, M. A. Human Scale Development: Conception, Application and Further Reflections, New York, Apex Press, 1991.
McMichael, A. J., Globalization, Climate Change, and Human Health, N. Engl. J. Med. 2013; 368: 1335-1343 [online]
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra1109341?af=R&rss=currentIssue&&utm_source=buffer&buffer_share=5e4c5&
Meisel, N. Governance Culture and Development: A different Perspective on Corporate Governance, OECD Development Centre Study, Paris, 2004.
Nelson, R. R. Evolutionary Theories of Cultural Change: An Empirical Perspective. Columbia University, 2005 [online]:
http://etss.net/files/Nelson_Cultural_Change.pdf
Nonaka, I., A dynamic theory of organizational knowledge creation, Organization Science, 5 (1), 1994.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
North, D., Institutions, institutional change and economic performance, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1990.
O’ Sullivan, P. E. Environment science and environment philosophy. The Int’l J. of Environment Studies, 28; 257-267, 1987.
Orhan, O. Three Modes of Environmental Justice in World Politics. The annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Aug 27, 2003
[online]: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p62643_index.html
Orr, D. Earth in Mind, Island Press, 1994.
Paehlke, R. C. Democracy's Dilemma: Environment, Social Equity, and the Global Economy, The MIT Press, Cambridge, 2004.
Pilon, A. F. The Bubbles or the Boiling Pot? An Ecosystemic Approach to Culture, Environment and Quality of Life. Environmental Geology, 57 (2) 2009.
[online]: http://www.springerlink.com/content/w6l306m214813077
Pilon, A. F. Living Better in a Better World: Development and Sustainability in the Ecosystemic Model of Culture. OIDA International Journal of
Sustainable Development, 2 (4): 25-36, 2010 [on line]: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1713371
Plumwood, V. The Ecological Crisis of Reason. Routledge, New York and London, 2002.
Rees, W. E., Toward a Sustainable World Economy. Institute for New Economic Thinking Annual Conference, Bretton Woods, 8-11 April, 2011 [on line]:
http://whatcom.wsu.edu/carbonmasters/documents/TowardSustainableWorldEconomy.pdf
Reflection Group on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, Inequality will not be solved by private sector initiatives [on line]:
https://www.reflectiongroup.org/en/publication/inequality-will-not-be-solved-attention-grabbing-private-sector-initiatives-it-requires
Richmond, B. The ‘‘Thinking’’ in Systems Thinking: Seven Essential Skills. Waltham, MA: Pegasus Communications, 2000.
Robbins, P. Political Ecology: A Critical Introduction. Blackwell Publishing, 2004.
Robèrt, K.H. (1991). "Educating A Nation: The Natural Step." In Context 28:10.
Rotmans, J. and Loorbach, D. Complexity and Transition Management, Journal of Industrial Ecology (13) 2: 184-196, 2009.
Rabkin, J., A review of: The global environment and world politics, 2nd ed. by Elizabeth DeSombre, The Electronic Journal of Sustainable Development
(2008) 1(2).
Sassen, S. Cities are at the centre of our environmental future, S.A.P.I.E.N.S, (2) 3, 2010, [online]: http://sapiens.revues.org/index948.html
Scheffer, M. et al., Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature, 413: 591-596, 2001.
Schwandt, T. et al., Realising the SDGs by reflecting on the way(s) we reason, plan and act: the importance of evaluative thinking. International Institute for
Environment and Development, IIED Briefing, 2016 [online]: http://pubs.iied.org/pdfs/17380IIED.pdf
Shove, E., Pantzar, M. & Watson, M. The Dynamics of Social Practice: Everyday life and how it changes, London: Sage, 2012.
Smith. A. and Raven, R. What is protective space? Reconsidering niches in transitions to sustainability. Research Policy 41 (2012) 1025–1036 [online]:
https://grassrootsinnovations.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/smith-and-raven-2012-what-is-protective-space1.pdf
Soskolne, C. L. Ethical, Social, and Legal Issues Surrounding Studies of Susceptible Populations and Individuals. Environmental Health Perspectives, 145
supplement 4, 1977
Sterling, S. Whole Systems Thinking as a Basis for Paradigm Change in Education: Explorations in the Context of Sustainability. Doctoral Thesis,
University of Bath, 2003. [online]: http://www.bath.ac.uk/cree/sterling/sterlingtitle.pdf
Sterling, S. ‘Mission impossible’ - or ‘never ending story’? CREE seminar University of Bath, 2009 [on line]:
http://www.bath.ac.uk/cree/seminars/BathSterlingJuly09.ppt
Sociology of Culture Conference, Culture and the Making of Worlds, Università Bocconi, 2010 [on line]: http://www.esaculturebocconi2010.org/the-
conference/the-theme.html
Söderbaum, P., Economics, ideological orientation and democracy for sustainable development. World Economics Association Books, 2016 [online]:
www.worldeconomicsassociation.org
Sullivan, S. The Natural Capital Myth, The Public Political Ecology Lab, University of Arizona, working paper, 2013 [on line]:
http://ppel.arizona.edu/blog/2013/03/15/natural-capital-myth
Sustainability Transitions Research Network, , 2010 [on line]: http://www.transitionsnetwork.org/files/STRN_research_agenda_20_August_2010(2).pdf
Tilbury, D. et al. A National Review of Environmental Education and its Contribution to Sustainability in Australia. Australian Dept. of the Environment
and Heritage and Research, Canberra, 2005 [online]: http://www.aries.mq.edu.au/pdf/Volume2_brochure.pdf
Takashi, M. Diversity, Trans-disciplinarity and Sustainability Science Education. The 2nd International Conference on Sustainability Science – ICSS,
Rome, 2010 [on line]:
http://icss2010.net/download/documents/24-JUNE/Sessione-5_Sustainability-science-education/3_T-Mino.pdf
Throsby, D. Linking Cultural and Ecological Sustainability. The International Journal of Diversity in Organisations, Communities and Nations, (8), 1: 15-
20, 2008.
Trainer, F.E. Where are we, where do we want to be, how do we get there? The International Journal of Inclusive Democracy .(6), 2, 2000 [on line]:
http://www.inclusivedemocracy.org/dn/vol6/trainer_where.htm
Trainer, F.E. Natural Capitalism Cannot Overcome Resource Limit Minnesotans for Sustainability, 2001 [on line]:
http://www.mnforsustain.org/trainer_fe_simon_lovins_critique.htm
Trainer, F.E., The Transition: To a Sustainable and Just World, Envirobook, Sussex Inlet, 2010
Unmüßig, B., Monetizing Nature: Taking Precaution on a Slippery Slope, Great Transition Network, 2014 [on line]:
http://greattransition.org/publication/monetizing-nature-taking-precaution-on-a-slippery-slope
Unece Education for sustainable development: a holistic approach to envisioning change and thereby achieving transformation, Education for Sustainable
Development, 2013 [on line]: http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/env/esd/8thMeetSC/ece.cep.ac.13.2013.4e.pdf
Unesco-Eolss Joint Committee, Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems, 2008 [on line]: http://www.eolss.net/
United Nations University, Website on Sustainable Development Governance, 2010: http://www.ias.unu.edu/sub_page.aspx?catID=155&ddlID=17
Virilio, P. and Turner, C. The Information Bomb, Verso, 2005.
Volpato, G. L., Ciencia: da filosofia à publicação, Cultura Acadêmica, São Paulo, 2013.
Wallerstein, I. The Modern World-System, New York, Academic Press, 1974.
Watson, A., & Till, K. E., Ethnography and Participant Observation. In D. DeLyser, S. Herbert, S. Aitken, M. Crang, & L. McDowell (Eds.), The SAGE
Handbook of Qualitative Geography. London; New York: SAGE, 2009.
White H., Figural Realism, John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, 1999.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Whitton, H. Teaching ethics in highly corrupt societies: Concerns and opportunities. Anti-Corruption Resource Centre. 2009 [on line]:
http://www.cmi.no/publications/file/?3345=teaching-ethics-in-highly-corrupt-societies
Wilcox, L. S. Onions and bubbles: models of the social determinants of health. Prev Chronic Dis 2007; 4 (4) [on line]:
http://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2007/oct/07_0126.htm
Winston, M. and Edelbach, R., Society, Ethics, and Technology, Wadsworth-Cengage Learning, Boston, 2014.
Yang, M., Introduction, Int.l Conference on Architecture and Cities for the 21st Century Valencia, 1998. [on line]:
http://whc.unesco.org/uploads/activities/documents/activity-489-1.pdf
Znaniecki, F. Ludzie terazniejsi a cywilizacja przyszlosci (The People of Today and the Civilization of Tomorrow), Ksiaznica Atlas, Lwow, Poland, 1935.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
How efficient is urban land speculation?

Gemeda, B.S.
Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; bedanes@yahoo.com
Abstract—This piece of writing aims to scrutinize the upshot of speculation in land at the urban sideline on resource allotment.
Following identifying supplementary than a few distinct possessor types, the authors disclose that changes in possession as
fighting fit as to the temperament and use of the land were the key indicators of urban land speculation. To conquer this
rationale, it has engaged a case-study come within reach of and model plan. A straightforward self-motivated model of the
residential spot is urbanized, and its properties are analyzed both qualitatively and numerically. One verdict is that social
expenditure in a distinctive municipality is greater than earlier than by on the subject of 5 % to 11% as a consequence of
speculative increases in the value of unoccupied land. What is more, the land is high-priced for the rationale that of gossip.
Keywords—speculation, tax, model, opportunity cost
I. INTRODUCTION
T HE occurrence of land speculation is seen wide-reaching (Hoyt , 2000). The border area of Latin America has been
categorized by land speculation and exploitation (Smith, 1997). In the same way, in the Chinese Pearl River Delta,
economic growth induces a boom in property values which provoked the speculation of land (Li, 1999). According to Baird
(2014), there is a need to identify the phenomenon allied with land speculation and the penalty of land speculation. In the
United States, the unused housing (speculated housing) in the existing housing is the chief cause of urban slump and this is the
motivation behind suburbanization (Clawson, 1962). During China's land reforms, soaring land prices triggered the land
speculation and became a source of revenue (Du, 2014). In Hong Kong, land speculation causes a lively property market. The
increasing trend in property sales indicates the intricate intertwining of the Hong Kong economy with various sectors, like
banking, construction, stock exchange (real estate) and transportation. This prosperous effect on the economy has been seen
for a long period of time (Chui, 2001). In Bangkok, evidence demonstrates that surplus purchase of housing by land speculators
results in over-investment by developers matching to unsustainable and unrealistic demand levels, thereby, disrupting markets
equilibrium. Out of 350,000 housing units bent, only one-third of the units were purchased by the inhabitants (Chui, 2001).
The usual economic definition of speculative market activity concerns the motives of buying and selling. A speculator is
one who deals in a good in order to exploit anticipated changes in its price. The good is neither consumed nor used in production
while in the possession of the speculator. Years ago, Nicholas Kaldor provided this definition:
Speculation . . . may be defined as the purchase (or sale) of goods with a view to re-sale (or repurchase) at a later date,
where the motive behind such action is the expectation of a change in the relevant prices . . . and not a gain accruing through
their use, or any kind of transformation effected in them or their transfer between different markets (kaldor,1939).
This definition is fine for currency, commodity, and other markets in which holding and using are mutually exclusive
activities. But if holding a good for future sale at a gain does not prevent using it in the interim, this definition is deficient. It
is particularly unsuitable for speculation in durable goods (like real property) which can provide a stream of useful services
over time while being held for a capital gain. If we choose a definition of speculation that precludes simultaneous uses, as does
Kaldor’s, we effectively disallow durable goods speculation and thus narrow too much the field of activities which qualify as
speculative
The endeavor of this article is fourfold: a) constructing a simple model of resource allocation b) determining the effect of
population growth on developing land values c) deriving speculative reaction to the growth in land values d) relating social
costs for the city and speculative bidding for uptown land.
A. Description of the Study Area
Shashemene -city Administration is positions in the southern part of the country at a distance of about 250 km from Addis
Ababa. The geographical coordinates of the city lies roughly 70 08’ 51’’ to 70 18’ 19’’ North latitude and 380 032’ 43’’ to
380 041’ 07’’East longitude. Besides, the city is surrounded by lands in all directions and covering a total surface area of about
12,994.61 hectares. The distance from North to South extreme points of the city is about 12km. Likewise the East to West
ground distance of the town is about 8km (OUPI 2010).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Figure 1. Size and Shape of City.

A. Land speculation in context
Land speculation has been entwined with land development throughout American history. Historians have notorious the
extensive prevalence of speculative land sales in the development of the nineteenth-century American frontier (Swierenga
1977), but they universally influenced settlement in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries as well. There have been
impressions of speculative fever since colonial times. Some argue that speculation was a major stirring force behind the
opening of the West. But notwithstanding the fact that it is an American ritual, land speculation has been much maligned. For
example:
"Speculation leads to squander a valuable resource. There is waste in taking land out of productive use before it is ready
for another; squander in tying up capital for long periods in a barren enterprise, with more in taxes, interest and extraordinary
assessments; worst in the division of land into lots that are too small, or of poor design, or poorly to be found; waste in zoning
too much for business use; and waste in re plotting land which has been precipitated subdivided. There are other wastes too:
increased overall government costs, all of which affect the community unfavorably." (Yearwood, 1968, page 220) (Accessed
at : 03-12-2017). http://www.jstor.org/stable/44103516.
The above denunciation is extreme, but is indicative of the type of rejoinder this institution can arouse. Although it is
doubtful that land speculation is as malevolent as some believe, there are some well-documented studies of the effects of
speculation. Three items relating to speculation in urban land appear to have been established: (1) uptown land awaiting
conversion to urban use increases rapidly in price; (2) it is sooner or later sold to developers for many times the agricultural
value of land; and (3) a great deal of land, perhaps half, is inactive at any given point in time.
Relating to the first, Schmid (1968) presents data which demonstrate that in the period 1958-1964 the price of sites for
development in the US increased five times faster than consumer prices and three times faster than construction costs. Clonts
(1970) premeditated the price of land in the Virginia outer edge of Washington, DC and found that variables related to urban
development explained thirty percent of the deviation in the value of land and improvements. Adams et al. (1968) have studied
the movement of underdone land prices in the Philadelphia border between 1948 and 1962. They find that after adjusting for
various characteristics of the land, prices rose between thirteen and sixteen percent during this period. They bring to a close
that the "long run trend of prices is close to a normal return in accord with the notion that the development trend of Northwest
Philadelphia was anticipated early and capitalized into real estate values". That is, the confirmation is consistent with what
would be expected in a well-functioning market. (Accessed at : 02-12-2016). http://www.jstor.org/stable/44103516.
The association between uptown land values and agricultural values has been studied by Maisel (1964) and Schmid
(1968). Maisel reports that land values in San Francisco were ten times greater than agricultural values, whereas Schmid reports
values of from four to one hundred and ten times greater than agricultural values in selected US cities. Together guesstimate
that speculative activity increases land values to about ten times the agricultural value. On the other hand, in any given city the
rate of population growth, income, and other factors would affect this relationship. Concerning the third item, Clawson (1962)
estimated that about half the land in US cities is idle at any given time. Given the evidence that suburban land values have
risen rapidly and that much land is idle, some important questions remain. Is speculative activity responsible for what we
observe? How does this rapid rise in price affect resource allocation and city size? The large amount of idle land in cities, often
described as urban sprawl or leap-fogging, is commonly attributed to speculation. However, it is difficult to conceive how
speculation carried out by rational profit maximizers in a well-functioning market could result in much idle land
If we get rid of obfuscating factors, by assuming land to be harmonized in all respects except distance to employment
centers, then it is doubtful that profit maximization would result in adjacent plots being sold at widely disparate times to
developers. Rather, leapfrogging is more likely to be due to imperfections in the market; several come to mind.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
First, the land market is a thin market. Sales occur once in a blue moon, thereby making it tricky for all parcels to be
accurately priced. A farmer or a speculator who receives an attractive offer may sell ahead of time if he thinks another offer
may not be forthcoming soon. In adding together, he may not know what other similar parcels are selling for since information
is imperfect. Second, there is substantial uncertainty among speculators about the expected income stream. Many factors affect
future income; for example, governmental policies, population growth, etc. Profit-maximizing speculators could easily differ
in their expectations and sell at different times. Third, the most advantageous holding period is influenced by the discount rate
applied to the income stream. Speculators may face differing costs of funds which would lead to the different holding periods.
Last, high taxes might drive inadequately capitalized speculators or farmers out of the market impulsively. Thus, although the
costs of the slump and leapfrogging may be substantial, speculation, per se, may not be the cause. Actions to improve the
functioning of the market rather than the elimination of speculators may be sufficient to reduce sprawl (see Clawson, 1971,
for some suggestions). The second question concerns the effect of high land prices on resource distribution. Neutze (1970)
argues that there is a misallocation:
"There appears to be no reason, in terms of resource allotment, why the cheapest land that is regarded as being urban
should exceed its opportunity cost. Other land will be priceyer because of the differential value accorded to land that is
favorably located for development as a result. If land prices are too high in this sense, development will occur at too high a
density in order to economize on land: too much amounts of resources will be used in building." (Neutze, 1970, page 321).
In a severely static context Neutze is correct. However, in a growing city where redevelopment is necessary sporadically,
it may be desirable to build a higher density initially in order to postpone redevelopment and the coupled costs to a later date.
High land prices would give confidence the opening high densities.
Supplementary, several authors argue that certain resources are underpriced in urban areas (see Mills and De Ferranti,
1971, for a discussion). Nearly everyone’s attention has been paying attention on public services, pollution, and congestion of
the transport system. If in actuality, these resources are underpriced, too numerous people will be attracted to cities. On the
other hand, if built-up land is priced above its opportunity cost, lands, and therefore housing, are overpriced; people will be
repelled from cities. This overpricing might be a second-best that offsets underpricing elsewhere. Thus it is possible that, by
bidding up the price of land, speculators are improving resource share. The remnants of this paper to develop a model of an
urban area which incorporates the effects of speculators on resource allotment in the city. http://www.jstor.org/stable/44103516
(Accessed: 05-10-2017 13:23 UTC).
III. METHODOLOGY
To put up a model in urban area dissimilar assumptions, such as; the city is rectangular in shape with unit width and
endogenous length, at one end of the city is the employment center, the Central Business District (CBD) where all goods
production takes place and the rest of the city is utterly residential, workers travel to work in the CBD on the transport system
which requires no surface land and transport cost is linear with distance and equal to ’s’ dollars per mile. Based on these
assumptions correlating different variables and constructing a model that shows how resource was allocated in urban areas.
Further, by revising the existing theories (land rent theory), the value of developed land and speculative land were analyzed.
As a final point, by collecting primary data through observation, interview, questionnaires, focus group discussions, and
reviewing secondary data from different sites, the social costs (capital cost, opportunity cost and transport cost) were strong-
minded.
IV. RESULT AND DISCUSSION

A. A simplified model of resource allocation in an urban area
The model is awfully easy, but is able to answer the question of go-ahead resource allotment posed here.
1) Assumptions:
a) The city is rectangular in a sketch with unit width and endogenous length.
b) At one end of the city is the employment center, the Central Business District (CBD), where all goods production takes
place and the rest of the city is entirely residential.
c) Workers go back and forth to work in the CBD on the transport system which requires no surface land.
d) Transport cost is linear with distance and equal to ’s’ dollars per mile.
e) Distance is normalized to count the edge of the CBD as zero and there is one worker per household and each household
requires one unit of housing.
The growth of the city is due to the growth of population. The ratio of workers to total population is constant, and
N=N (t) (1)
Where N is figure of workers, t is time, defines the figure of workers at each point in time. Housing is fashioned by
using capital and land. Changeover of factors is possible at any time (that is, the model is a 'putty' model in which development
can take place in slow but convinced stages without loss of efficiency) in accord with;
H (U) = 𝐴𝐿(𝑈)𝑎 𝐾(𝑈)1−𝑎 (2)

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Where
H (u) =is housing output u, miles from the CBD,

L (u) =is land used in housing at u, and
K (u) =is capital used in housing at u,
a, 𝐴 are constants.
The necessity that factors be paid their marginal product gives
𝐻(𝑈)
R (U) =𝑃ℎ(𝑈)𝑎 , (3)
𝐿(𝑈)
and
𝐻(𝑈)
r= Ph (U) (1-a) , (4)
𝐿(𝑈)
Where
Ph (u) is the rental price of housing at u,

R (u) is the annual rent on land at u, and
r is the rental price of capital, which is constant.
Combining equations (2), (3), and (4) gives the rental price of housing in terms of factor prices, hence
Ph (u) = AR(𝑈)𝑎 (5)
Where
𝑟1−𝑎
A= _____________
1−𝑎
𝐴𝑎𝑎 ( 1−𝑎)
For locational equilibrium it is required that
𝑑[𝑃ℎ(𝑈)]
= −𝑆 (6)
𝑑𝑢
Presume for the jiffy that house hold does not do as you are told the low of demand and no consumer replacement. In
spite of the price of housing, each household occupies a standard dwelling, with 160 𝑚2 or 178 square feet of living space.
Based on data collected in the study area, the typical household has a monotonous amount of (800birr) to expend on housing
and commuting each month. The cost of commuting is 120 birr per month per 500meter: A household living 500meter from
employment district incurs 120birr per month in commuting costs, compared to 240 birr for a household 1000 meters away,
and so on. The price of housing is defined as the price per square foot of housing per month. If a household rents a 178 square
foot house (a “standard” house) for 560birr, the price of housing is 3.1 per square foot (560birr/178).
Figure 2 shows the equilibrium housing-price curve. For the normal dwelling next to the employment area (x=0),
commuting cost is zero, so the household can spend the entire 800 birr budget on housing ,paying 4.5 birr per square foot for
a 178square-foot dwelling (point z).In contrast ,at a distance of 1000meters from the employment area, commuting cost is
240birr (equal to 120birr per 500 meters times two),so the household has 560 birr of its 800 birr budget left for over to spend
on housing and is willing to pay 3.1 per square foot for standard dwelling (point d).Similarly ,at a distance of 2000 meters, the
household is willing to pay 1.8,as shown by point j.
To see the logic of the negatively sloped housing-price curve, deem what would come about if it were horizontal, with a
constant price of 3.1 birr at all locations in the City. For a household living 2000meters in the employment area, a move to a
location next to employment area would eliminate 480 birr of commuting cost without any modify in housing costs. Other
households have the same incentives to move closer to employment area. The demand for housing near the employment center
will increase, pulling housing prices. At the same time, the demand will decrease at more remote locations, pushing down
housing prices. In other words, a horizontal housing -price curve will be transformed in to a negatively sloped curve.
The symmetry housing-price curve makes the inhabitants indifferent amid all locations. A move toward away from the
employment area changes commuting cost by the change in distance (∆x) times the commuting cost per mete (t) and changes
housing cost by the change in price of housing (∆p) times housing consumption (h) . For locational indifference, the two
changes must sum to zero:
∆𝑝. ℎ+∆𝑥. 𝑡 =0

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Figure 2. The housing-Price Curve without consumer substitution.
We can rewrite this expression to show that the change in housing cost equals the negative of the change in commuting cost:
∆𝑝. ℎ=−∆𝑥. 𝑡
In figure 1, if a household moves from x=4 to x=2 and the price increases by 1.349birr, a 240 increase in housing cost is exactly
offset by a 240birr decrease in commuting cost.
1.349birr.178= - (-2) (120) =240birr
We can use trade –off expression to get an equation for the slope of the housing –price curve. Dividing each side of the
expression by ∆𝑥 and h,
∆𝑝 𝑡
=
∆𝑥 ℎ
In our example, t=120birr h=178 square feet, so the slope of housing -price curve is -0.15birr:
∆𝑝 𝑡 120𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑟
=− = -0.15
∆𝑥 ℎ 800
In figure 1, a 1000 meters toward the employment center increases the price per square foot of housing by 0.15
That is, decreasing housing costs must offset increased transport cost as distance to the CBD increases. (Implicit in the
assumption that each household demands affixed quantity of housing.) Combining equations (5) and (6), and solving for land
rents gives
𝑐−𝑠𝑢
R (U) = ( ) 1⁄𝑎 ,
𝐴
Where C is a constant of amalgamation. If
𝑐−𝑠Û
Ȓ= R (Û) = ( ) 1⁄𝑎 , we get
𝐴
𝑠
R (u) = ⌈Ȓ𝑎 + (Û − 𝑈)⌉ 1⁄𝑎 (7)
𝐴
Where u, is the remoteness to the edge of the city at time t. All workers must be housed in the city, therefore
Û
∫0 𝐻(𝑢)𝑑𝑢 = 𝑁(𝑡) (8)
Solving equations (3) and (5) for H, using the actuality that the city is of unit width so that L (u)= 1 and substituting the
result in equation (8) gives
Û 𝑅(𝑢)1−𝑎
∫0 𝑅 𝐴𝑎
𝑑𝑢 = 𝑁(𝑡) (9)

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Substituting from equation (7), integrating, and rearranging, we get

𝐴
Û (t) = {[Ȓ + 𝑠𝑁(𝑡)]𝑎 ] − Ȓ𝑎 } (10)
𝑆
which is the radius of the city as a function of the population. Equations (7) and (10) then settle on the land-rent structure of
the city over space and time. That is,
𝑠𝑢
R (V, t) ={[Ȓ + 𝑠𝑁(𝑡)]𝑎 − } 1⁄𝑎 (11)
𝐴
or
1 𝑠𝑢
lnR = 𝑙𝑛{[Ȓ + 𝑠𝑁(𝑡)]𝑎 − (11a)
𝑎 𝐴
B. The developed value of land.

The conversion of land to urban uses is a highly complex process involving a large number of private individuals as well
as private and public institutions (a detailed description of which can be found in Clawson, 1971). However, the following
scenario can be abstracted from the complexities. Four principle roles are played by a variety of actors. These include the
homebuyer, the developer, the land investor/speculator, and the farmer or rural landowner. In the first stage land is held by the
rural landowner. Land use is stable; and land rent is a constant R0.
In the second stage the city's expansion begins to consume nearby vacant agricultural land. Investors/speculators see the
possibility of higher prices for land in urban uses and begin bidding up land values. Conversion takes place after the land is
sold to developers. The developer holds the land only briefly while housing is under construction. The process is completed
when the land and improvements are sold to homeowners. For any given plot of land one actor may play more than one role.
Whether or not plots of land actually change hands is unimportant. The essential feature is the ability and willingness of
investors/speculators to accept a negative cash flow for a period of time in anticipation of future capital gains.
At any given point in time, equation (7) describes the rental value of land over space. This relationship is shown in figure
(3, and it establishes the rental value of land in urban use at any point in time. The question that remains is what homebuyers
will be willing to pay for the developed land. If home buyers are rational participants with perfect foresight they should be
willing to pay a price for the land equal to the present value of future rents. This of course would be an extreme assumption,
which requires that consumers should be aware of differential appreciation rates between locations. Home buyers do appear
to be aware of the appreciation potential of land, but casual empiricism indicates that there is little awareness, if any, among
home buyers that appreciation rates might vary in a systematic manner with location.
𝑅(𝑈)
𝑈 (𝑡1) Û (𝑡2) Û (𝑡3)

Figure 3. Land rents over space.
A more realistic postulation about the operation of the housing market would be that buyers contrast, current rents, taxes,
and values among locations, and are willing to pay the capitalized value of current rents, less current taxes. In other words the

polocentre.org
icshge.org
value of developed land to homebuyers will be:
𝑅(𝑣,𝑡)
Vd (v, t) = , where v is the tax rate.
𝑟+𝑣
The developed value of land will follow a trajectory similar to that in figure 4, where the function is convex for small
exponential growth rates or convex growth. If the city is growing linearly. The logarithm of land rents and values at any given
location will increase at a decreasing rate. In this case a finite speculative price is guaranteed as long as the ultimate growth
rate is less than the discount rate.
𝑙𝑛 𝑅 𝑑(𝑣, 𝑡) U=u1
U=u2
U=u3
Figure 4. Land rents over time.
C. The Speculative value of Land.

Given the rate of appreciation of the developed land, Vd (V, t) speculators with perfect foresight will bid up the price of
land until appreciation is equal to holding costs. That is, if the land is rising rapidly in price, speculators can make capital gains
from buying and holding until appreciation plus rental from undeveloped (for example, agricultural) is no longer offset interest
expenses, are r, and taxes ,v. If a sufficient number of speculators are active in the market, prices will rise to the point where
the current rentals plus appreciation, minus taxes afford only a normal rate of return on capital. Accordingly
𝑑𝑉𝑠
+ 𝑅𝑜 − 𝑣𝑉𝑠 = 𝑟𝑉𝑠 (12)
𝑑𝑡
Where. R0 is the rent on land in nonurban use assuming taxes to be based on the market or speculative value, Vs (which is
often not the case). Present value is maximized when the land is held until the appreciation of the developed value is equal to
interest plus taxes, minus undeveloped rentals, hence
𝑑𝑉𝑑
= (𝑟 + 𝑣)𝑉𝑑 − 𝑅𝑜 (13)
𝑑𝑡
The development date is denoted td and is shown in figure 3, which describes the situation where Ro is negligible. Speculators,
therefore, will begin to bid the price of land at u above its opportunity cost, Vo, long before the city reaches that plot of land.
In addition the land will be withheld from development for a period of time, t1-to longer than in the absence of speculation.
𝑅𝑜
Land is first developed at price ṽs rather than Vo =[ ]
(𝑟+𝑉)
Notice in figure 4 that an increase in the tax rate from v1 to v2 would seem to decrease the speculative value of land, and
to move the date of development forward. However, this neglects the impact of the tax rate on developed values. Actually if
buyers value land by discounting the excess of rental value over an allowance for taxes according to

polocentre.org
icshge.org
1 𝑅
Vd = (𝑅 − 𝑣𝑉𝑑), or Vd = , then the equation (13) becomes
𝑟 𝑟+𝑣
1 𝑑𝑅 𝑑𝑅 1
= R-Ro or = 𝑟 + 𝑣,
𝑟+𝑣 𝑑𝑡 𝑑𝑡 𝑅−𝑅𝑜
and if the left hand side is decreasing over time, increasing v advances the date at which this condition is met. Another effect
enters if the tax is applied to improvements, in which case
r+v must replace r in equation (4), leading to less capital-intensive development and an earlier outward movement of the edge
of the city; and earlier development of any given parcel.
(𝑙𝑛𝑉)
(𝑙𝑛 𝑉𝑑 (𝑣, 𝑡)
(𝑙𝑛ṽ𝑠)
(𝑟 + 𝑣)
(𝑙𝑛𝑉𝑠)
(𝑙𝑛𝑉𝑜)
(𝑡)
(𝑡𝑜) (𝑡1) (𝑡𝑑)
Figure 5. The speculative price.
(𝑙𝑛𝑉) (𝑉𝑠2)
(𝑙𝑛𝑑𝑉)
(𝑟 + 𝑣1)
(𝑉𝑠1) (𝑟 + 𝑣2)
(𝑙𝑛𝑉𝑜)
(𝑡2𝑑) (𝑡1𝑑)
Figure 6. The effect of tax changes on the speculative price.
To sum up this section, speculators raise the price of land to developers above the value of the land in its undeveloped use and
postpone the date of development, this effect being smaller the higher the tax rate. This latter result, which is contrary to the

polocentre.org
icshge.org
usual proposition that a tax on land values is neutral, depends on the assumption of the buyer that the tax will remain fixed at
the level of the date of purchase, whereas the seller allows for increases in the tax if he holds on longer.
D. The upshot of speculation on resource allotment.
Resource allotment in urban areas has been the focus of a succession of recent papers. The effects of overcrowding in the
transport system have been a chief worry, for instance, Mills and Doe Ferranti (1971), Solow and Vickrey (1971), and Livesey
(1973). A universal constituent has been the inquiry of the best city through the minimization of social cost. In the model
developed here social costs consist of transport costs, capital costs, and land costs. Total transport costs are
Û
∫0 𝑠𝑢𝐻(𝑢)𝑑𝑢, (14)
Capital costs are
Û
∫0 𝑟𝐾(𝑢)𝑑𝑢 (15)
and the opportunity cost of land is
Û
∫0 𝑅𝑜 𝑢𝑑𝑢 = 𝑅𝑜Û (16)
Where Ro is the rent on land in an alternative, nonurban use. Social costs at a given point in time are then given by the sum
of equations (14), (15), and (16), namely
Û
C (t) = ∫0 𝑠𝑢 𝐻(𝑢) + 𝑟𝐾(𝑢) + 𝑅𝑜 𝑢𝑑𝑢 (17)
Where C (t) is total social cost at time t. Making use of equations (3), (4), and (5) then gives
Û 𝑠𝑢 1−𝑎
C (t) = ∫0 [( )𝑅𝑢1−𝑎 + 𝑅(𝑢)]𝑑𝑢 + 𝑅𝑜Û (18)
𝑎𝐴 𝑎
From the previous section we know that land will be supplied to developers at the speculative price, so that
Ȓ=Rs (V, td) . (19)
It is possible to vary the price of land at the edge of the city, R, by varying the tax rate,
v. If we define
⧍ = Ȓ − 𝑅𝑜 (20)
then ⧍ is the market premium over the opportunity cost of land which must be paid to speculators. This market premium takes
on values as the tax rate varies. Thus the premium paid to speculators can be decreased or eliminated by an appropriate tax
policy. Such an appropriate tax policy is one which minimizes the present value of social costs; that is, find ⧍(t) such that
𝑇
∫𝑜 𝐶(𝑡) exp(−𝑝𝑡) 𝑑𝑡 (21)
is minimized, where p is the social rate of discount. This is a degenerate problem in the calculus of variations, the solution of
which is independent of time. A closed form solution has not been obtained, but numerical experimentation yields the result
that a minimum exists at
R=Ro (22)
or ⧍ =0, Thus social costs are minimized if the entire speculative value above opportunity costs are taxed away.
E. Some arithmetical result – the social cost of speculation

Some motivating issues cannot be answered critics by the model. On the other hand, additional consequences can be
obtained by using arithmetical methods. Of particular interest is the question of how large an increase in social costs is caused
by speculation. To this end a numerical analysis of a model similar to that presented above was done. The only distinction
introduced is that in the simulated model the city is a two-dimensional circular city rather than the less realistic linear city
considered earlier. If not the assumptions are indistinguishable. The transport cost is linear in distance; and housing is produced
by using capital and land in accordance with equation (2).
The virtual city was taken to have 3200 workers in the CBD. The majority other parameter values were those which were

polocentre.org
icshge.org
found to be rational from an earlier study (see Capozza, 1976). One exception was the factor share of land in the production
of housing. Total social costs are responsive to this parameter and it is not easy to allot a precise value. More than a few
authors, however, have suggested that the likely range is from fifteen to twenty-five percent (Mills, 1972). To bracket the
probable values, simulations were done with the factor share of land at each end of the range. The greater the factor share of
land the larger is the loss of speculative bidding for land. One final value is important—the relationship between the
opportunity cost of land, Ro, and the speculative supply price of land to developers, R.Maisel (1964) estimates the price of
land to developers to be about ten times the price of agricultural land, agriculture being taken to be the best alternative use.
Social costs are tabulated for this range of speculative values and for the two values of the factor share of land, shown in table
1. In the table note that speculation, which increases land values to ten times its opportunity cost, will increase social costs by
5.6% (when the factor share of land is 15%) to 11.3% (when the share of land is 25%).
As the speculative value of land rises the radius of the city decreases because population densities are increasing. The
opportunity cost of land also decreases as less land is used. Capital costs, on the other hand, rise owing to diminishing returns
since more capital is applied to the same land. Transport costs decrease as R increases, since workers commute shorter distances
in the more compact cities. Total social costs decrease, then rise, and a turning point is reached when land is valued at its
opportunity cost.
TABLE I
SOCIAL COSTS FOR VALUES OF Ȓ WHEN THE FACTOR SHARE OF LAND IS (A) 15% AND (B) 25%. VALUES IN PARENTHESES ARE PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCES
FROM VALUES WHEN R = Ȓ0
A) FACTOR SHARE OF LAND IS 15%
Speculative value of Radius of the city(b) Opportunity cost of Capital costs(1) Transport costs(1) Total social costs(1)
land(Ȓ) land(1)
0 77-7 17-3 162-4 56-1 235.8
(+71.5) (+44.1) (-2.5) (+1-3) (+0-8)
Ro 45-3 12-0 166-6 55-4 234.0
2R0 41-9 11-6 169-2 43-9 234-7

(-7.6) (-3.33) (+1-7) (-.20.7) (+0-3)
4R0 38-4 11-3 173-3 51-8 236-4

(-0.15.2) (-5.8) (+4-3) (-6-5) (+1-2)
6R0 36-3 11-1 176-6 50-2 237-8

(-25-5) (-7.5) (+6-4) (-11.9) (+1-9)
8R0 34-7 11-0 179-1 48-8 237-8

(-23-4) (-8.3) (+7.5) (-14-5) (+1-9)
10R0 33-6 10.9 187-5 48.7 247-1

(-25.8) (-9.2) (+12-5) (-12-0) (5.6)
B) FACTOR SHARE OF LAND IS 25%

0 159-6 45-8 269-6 156-5 471-9
(58.1) (97.4) (-8.1) (+5-3) (+6.02)
R 100.9 23-2 293-4 148-6 445-1
2R 91-7 20-7 307-0 141-4 469-0

(-9-2) (-10.80) (+4-6) (-4-8) (+5.4)
4R 81-9 18-3 326-4 131-4 476-0

(18.8) (-21.1) (+11.3) (+11.6) (6.9)
6R 76-0 17-0 341-6 124-5 483-0

(-27-6) (-26.7) (16.4) (-16.2) (+8.5)
8R 71-9 16-1 354-2 119-2 489-5

(-28.7) (-30.6) (+20.7) (-19.8) (+9.9)
10R 68-7 15-5 365-3 114-9 495-7

(-31.9) (-33.2) (24.6) (-22.7) (+11.3)
V. CONCLUSION
In this paper I have tried to show that speculation in urban land raises the price of land to developers and postpones the
date of the development. This speculative bidding for land affects resource allocation by causing the land to be developed at a
date later than optimal. However, a tax policy does exist that will correctly price new land and create a social optimum. The
possibility that an urban resource, land, is overpriced because of speculation is particularly interesting. A great deal of literature
in urban economics argues the opposite; namely, that due to congestion, pollution, or other diseconomies, resource is

polocentre.org
icshge.org
underpriced. This, the overpricing of land may improve resource allocation by offsetting some of the underpricing elsewhere,
and as a result, cities may be closer to optimal size. It would be useful for future research to consider how the pricing of one
resource affects another and how social costs are influenced under various conditions.
REFERENCES
Adams, John. 1968 “Undeveloped land prices during urbanization: a micro empirical study over time "Review of Economics and Statistics50 (248-258).
Bahl, Roy Walle. 1968. "A land speculation model: the role of the property tax as a constraint to urban sprawl "Journal of Regional Science8 199-20.
Barro, Robert.1990. “The Stock Market and Investment,” Review of Financial Studies 3, 115131.
Capozza, Dally Rroy.1965.” An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets”: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets, Real Estate
Economics, 32:1, 1-32.
Case, Karl E. and Robert Shiller J., 2003. “Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2003(2): 299-362.
Chui, Elly 2001. Doomed elderly people in a booming city: Urban redevelopment and housing problems of elderly people in Hong Kong. Housing, Theory
and Society, 18(3–4), 158–166.
Clonts, Holly. 1970. "Influence of urbanization on land values at the urban periphery" Land Economics 46 489-497.
Clawson, Marion. 1962. Urban sprawl and speculation in suburban land. Land Economics, 38 (2), 99–111.
Du, Julan, Charles Ka Yui Leung and Derek Chu. 2014. Return Enhancing, Cash-rich or simply Empire-Building? An Empirical Investigation of Corporate
Real Estate Holdings, working paper.
Gaffney, Mason. 1961. "The unwieldy time-dimension of space" The American Journal of Economics and Sociology 20 465-481.
Harvey, David. 1965. "The nature and economics of urban sprawl” Land Economics 611-9.
Hoyt, Helly. 2000.” One hundred years of land values in Chicago: The relationship of the growth of Chicago to the rise of its land values, 1830-1933.
Li, Shu-fan 2000. “Hong Kong Surgeon. Hong Kong”: Li Shu Fan Medical Foundation, 2000.
Maisel, Sully. 1964. "Price movements of building sites in the US: a comparison among metropolitan areas" Papers of the Regional Science Association 12
47-60.
Mills, Elly and De Ferranti Delly. 1971. "Market choices and optimum city size" American Economic Review 61 340-345.
Neutze, Max.1970. "The price of land for urban development", Economic Record 46 313-328.
Nicholas, Kaldor 1939. “Speculation and Economic Stability,” Review of Economic Studies, vol. 7, no. 1 (October 1939), pp. 1-27.
Smith, Adam. 1997.” Land speculation and intense fi cation at the frontier”: A seeming paradox in the Colombian savanna. Agricultural Systems,54 (4),
501–520.
Schmid, Allice. 1968. Converting Land from Rural to Urban Uses (Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore).
Swierenga, Robert P. 1968. Pioneers and Profits: Land Speculation on the Iowa Frontier. Ames: Iowa State University Press.
Yearwood, Recce. 1968. "Land: American attitudes on speculation, development and control", Annals of Public and Co-operative Economy 39 215-224.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Dilemmas for Zanzibar: Energy, Economy and Environment

Juma, S.A.
School of Public Affairs, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui, 230026, China;
sahim@mail.ustc.edu.cn
Abstract—This study is presenting a Policy analysis of the relationship between energy, economy, and environment in
Zanzibar, Tanzania. The Zanzibar government are in a dilemma to balance between economy, energy system and
environmental sustainability. This paper aims to contribute to the literature by offering an analytical study of the mentioned
E3 mainly to the developing countries. The Analysis was based on a review of the literature and supported by theoretical
models about energy, economy, and environment. Zanzibar is importing its energy source form Tanzania mainland through
the supplier known as Tanzania Electric Supply Company Limited (TANESCO) which make it more dependent from one
primary source of energy that poses many challenges in its socio-economic development. This paper can be used by
policymakers while during their policy-making process regarding energy, economy, and environment. The paper has also
presented the challenges of the environment in the rapidly growing economy. The author has analysed and discussed these
challenges, and its success or failure can be used as a model in other developing countries. This study can help (potential)
Government officers, policymakers, and regulators to assess policy risks between energy, economy, and environment.
Keywords—energy, economy, environment, Zanzibar economy, policy risks, energy security, energy economy
I. INTRODUCTION
Z ANZIBAR consists of two islands of Unguja and Pemba. There are also some other small islands. The islands are located
in the Indian Ocean about 40 km off the Mainland coast of Tanzania mainland. Zanzibar Islands have a total area of 2,654
square kilometres. Unguja has an area of 1,666 square kilometres and Pemba has a land area of 988 square kilometres. The
climate in Zanzibar is tropical and humid with an average maximum temperature of about 30c degree recorded during hot
seasons and an average minimum temperature of 21c degree recorded during the cold season. From the Graph 1, We see that
The Population of Zanzibar in 2018 is estimated to be 1.57 million.
Graph 1. Zanzibar Population Projections 2013-2021. Source: Office of the Chief Government Statistician Zanzibar (OCGS Zanzibar)
The sustainable development of any developing country like Zanzibar is mainly focusing on the goal of attaining higher
standards of living of its citizens (including goals like high educational, good health and infrastructure). To attain these goals
some key sector namely Energy, Economy, and Environment need higher attention. Zanzibar is a dilemma in balancing the
three, i.e., Energy, Economy, and Environment.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
A. An Overview of World Energy

Global economic growth strengthened in 2017 with reported growth of +3.7% that were in line with its 2000-2015 average
(EnerData 2018) that also resulted into acceleration in energy consumption by 2% on average. The highest energy consumer
in 2017 was China with 28% world energy consumption total share followed by the USA which consumed 20% of world
energy.
Figure 1. Crude oil prices 1861-2017 US dollars per barrel, world events. Source: The BP Statistical Review of World Energy
The crude oil prices during 2010 – 2019 was very volatile, and this was mainly contributed by several world events
including Iraq war, Arab uprising and the Asian financial crisis (See figure 1). Energy production is still highly dependent on
the supply of oil and if there is volatility of oil prices in the world causes social unrest and a business slowdown in some part
of the world. This is to say; world politics has a direct influence on energy sector especially from OEC countries. The recent
example of Qatar and Saudi Arabia diplomatic stand own raised a fear on energy security to Saudi Arabia as it is well known
that Qatar is the principal supplier of oil and gas to her neighbour, Saudi Arabia.
Figure 2. G20 KEY Energy Figures in 2017. Source: World Energy Trends – 2018 Edition, Webinar – ENERDATA
 G20 countries account for 80% of global energy consumption

 CO2 Energy emissions from energy combustion (>80% of CO 2 emissions)
From the figure 2 above shows that, while G20 had an average of 3.7% economic growth in 2017 compared to 3.1% in
2016 but this resulted to rising consumption of energy by 2.1%. These economic growths had also resulted into 2% increase
of CO2 emissions in 2017. According to the Paris COP21 Agreement, the countries who are signatories of the agreement

polocentre.org
icshge.org
declared to limit their growth in temperatures to 2 0 C and cut their energy-related C02 emissions average 2.9% per year.
Although many G20 countries including China and the USA has signed the Paris COP21 Agreement but generally speaking
the Global economy has not yet started to cut its C02 emissions.
Figure 3. Distribution of proved gas reserves: 1997, 2007 and 2017. Source: The BP Statistical Review of World Energy
According to several reports, even though there was a substantial price increase on coal markets, but coal has remained the
primary source of energy consumed in 2017. For example, China uses 60% coal as the primary source of energy production.
Figure 3 above, there are 193.5 trillion cubic metres of already proved reserve of gas worldwide. Middle East account for
40.1% of the total proved gas reserve in the world while Africa’s recent gas discovery has made the continent to participate in
energy economy with 7.1% of the proven gas reserve. Also, there is increasing trend for crude oil prices that was as a result of
production cuts by the leading world oil producers, the significant impact of geopolitical events in early 2018 (Iran, Venezuela)
and global economic growth.
Figure 4. 2018 World Energy Summary. Source: World Energy Trends – 2018 Edition, Webinar – ENERDATA
From these recent energy global trends, we can see that critical global players (G20) are on a mission to efficiently use available
energy resources to support their economic growth while also in a mission to protect the environment, please see figure 4.

The worldwide demand of energy has recently increased rapidly due to the noticeable growth of global population and
economy, particularly in the emerging market economies. Possessing valuable energy supplies is always accompanied by

polocentre.org
icshge.org
development and prosperity, the rising demand for energy creates new challenges every day. Energy security threats may arise
because more customers demand more energy resources ever, and higher fossil fuels consumption can lead to more greenhouse
emissions, primarily carbon dioxide, which plays a huge role in global warming.
Figure 5. Fuel consumption by region 2017. Source: The BP Statistical Review of World Energy
The world fuel consumption is increasing due to regional economic growth. Some countries have implemented new
energy policies of mixing sources of energy and become independent of traditional sources of energy which was oil, natural
gas and coal. Figure 5 shows us for example, South and Central American countries have invested more on Nuclear energy.
Asia Pacific countries have opted for hydroelectricity and renewables as their primary sources of energy. However, from figure
5 we can also see Asia Pacific countries specifically China, are still very dependent on coal as their primary source of energy.
Even though China is approving and installing new nuclear energy plants as a substitute for primary energy sources, but we
can see that the road ahead is still very long. Challenges that arise from such challenges can be a good source of opportunities.
New thoughts, improvements and systems are required to sustain a sound energy future. We may need to change the way we
produce, transport, store and consume our energy. If our primary target is to boost the living standards, afford new energy
services, use energy more efficiently, protect our environment and surroundings, and assure the presence of energy resources,
green growth is the solution. The global energy production is at a turning point, from carbon-based fuels and nuclear power to
renewables like wind or solar. This transition can only then be successful if large amounts of highly fluctuating renewable
energy can be stored. Today, electric supply must instantaneously match power consumption and new solutions for energy
storage are in demand (Hydrogenious Technologies GmbH, 2018).
Figure 6. Renewable energy demand and storage. Source: Hydrogenious Technologies GmbH, 2018

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Efficient energy storage allows to shift energy peak production from times of massive production to times of significant
demand (see figure 6). Unsteady renewable energies in addition to that become base-load compatible and reduce the need for
conventional base-load plants running on fossil fuels (Hydrogenious Technologies GmbH, 2018).
A. History of the Energy system
The power of muscles of human beings and in animals too was the first implementation of energy by human and the
energy system in use was the food chain. Humans have always used energy systems to generate the maximum possible work
with the minimum amount of effort to generate it. Before the industrial revolution, people mainly depended on muscle strength
and biomass for their daily needs. Back in that time, biomass consisted mainly of wood and peat, and its energy delivery was
not efficient. Until the 19th century, the primary energy sources used were horse mills using Animal power, windmills using
wind power and water wheel using water energy. Wood and charcoal were mainly used as fuels for cooking and heating
purposes. However, coal and oil were available too. In the middle east, crude oils were recognised from seeps and leaks, but
they were not mainly used as fuels, they were used as protective coatings (Smil, Vaclav. 1999)
B. What is Energy?
Energy can be defined as the capacity to do particular work. Energy has a variety of forms, such as light, electricity, heat,
motion, chemical, nuclear and gravitational. The sum of all energy forms possessed by a system is called total energy.
Energy types
Energy can be divided into two types which are primary and secondary. Primary energy is the energy obtained directly
from the surrounding environment. Secondary energy is the energy transformed from Primary energy sources; it comes in the
form of fuel or electricity.
Primary energy can be split into three different categories. The first category is the non-renewable energy like coal, natural
gas and nuclear fuel. The second category is the renewable energy such as wind energy, geothermal energy, biomass and
hydropower. The third category is the waste category.
Primary energy sources as crude oil, natural gas and coal contribute to about 85% of the total fossil fuels in the consumed
primary energy in the world (DOE/EIA-0484) (Gary JH, Handwerk GH. 1994). Reports show that projected energy use in the
world that until 2035 petroleum, coal and natural gas will still be the primary energy sources used by the world.
The principle of supply and demand suppose that as fossil fuels decrease, their prices will increase, and other energy
supplies would be used instead. Renewable energy supplies such as biomass and wind energy will be economically suitable
and affordable to use (DOE/EIA-0484) (Gary JH, Handwerk GH. 1994).
Graph 2: Supply and Demand curves of RES. Indicative Supply & Demand Cost structure (Weigt 2009)
As illustrated in graph 2, the supply and demand cost structure of renewable energy shows the price elasticity of renewable
energy demand. The assumption is that, if the cost of renewable energy production is low the quantity supplied will be high
and the vice versa is true. The primary energy can be converted into secondary energy in the form of electricity or fuel, such
as methanol, ethanol, hydrogen and gasoline (Belyaev, Marchenko, Filippov, Solomin, Stepanova, Kokorin 2002). The primary
energy produced from renewable energy sources such as sun, biomass, wind or flowing water is usually equivalent to the
electrical or thermal energy produced from them. The final energy output is always electrical energy and fuel, and it is called
useful energy. Electrical, thermal, mechanical and chemical energy forms place a boundary between energy consumption and
production leaders (DOE/EIA-0484) (Gary JH, Handwerk GH. 1994).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
C. The relationship between energy and the environment

Energy generation and utilisation have a significant impact on the environment. The associated environmental problems
with energy use include a spectrum of pollutant releases, hazards and accidents, as well as deterioration of environmental
quality and natural ecology. During the past few years, environmental threats related to energy have expanded from local
issues to international and global threats. Especially in developing countries, where energy consumption rates are severely
high, and the environmental management cannot yet fully afford such impacts. Moreover, newly-industrialised countries are
now the primary threat of air pollution, ozone depletion and carbon dioxide emissions due to the weak contribution of
environmental management. In the 1970s, people mainly focused on the relationship between energy use and the economy,
neglecting the impact of energy use on the environment. In most countries, organisations were established to deal with
environmental issues after 1970s many governments have set rules, environmental laws and management policies that were
suggested to be the basis of government decisions concerning energy use and its environmental impact.
As environmental threats such as air pollution and ozone depletion became significant in the 1980s, more attention was
given to the link between energy and the environment. Many studies were performed on energy and the environment. However,
limited work was reported on that thread (Rosen M.A., Dincer 1996). The environmental impact of energy consumption is
mainly decreased by raising the efficiency of energy-resource utilisation which is also called energy conservation. Recently,
the environmental impact of human processes and activities has dramatically increased due to the increases in the world
population, energy consumption and developing industries. In the past, the majority of the environmental analysis and control
authorities focused on the conventional pollutants such as Sulphur Oxide, Nitrogen Oxide and VOCs emitted by various
material that have severely harmful effects on peoples’ health. Recently, environmental attention has reached more hazardous
air pollutants; they are mainly toxic substances that can harm people even in small doses. Such pollutants have various impacts
on the biosphere (Hollander J.M., Brown 1992). Carbon monoxide is a dangerous air pollutant. The incomplete combustion of
vehicles fuels mostly generates it; it poses a great thread on human health. Sulphur Oxide is another harmful gas that is critical
to human health and considered a threat to the surrounding environment; it is emitted globally due to natural phenomena such
as erupting volcanoes or sea sprays and by human activities such as combustion of fuels containing Sulphur.
Nitrogen Oxides are generated due to combustions that take place in high temperature enough to start a reaction between
Nitrogen and Oxygen. It can lead to breathing problems, defects in ozone formation and creating harmful acids that can be
very dangerous to the natural systems. Nitrogen Oxide emission controlling is more difficult than controlling Sulphur Oxide
because Sulphur Oxide emissions come from large public facilities such as power plants which can be easily recognised and
controlled, While Nitrogen Oxides come from various sources such as motor vehicles which are smaller, mobile and present
in large numbers. VOCs and petroleum products disturb the natural formation of ozone. Various efforts are made to reduce
VOCs emissions have conducted about 90% decrement in emissions of fuels that are not appropriately burned in the United
States since the 1970s using catalytic converters (Hollander J.M., Brown 1992). The global warming effect is another major
problem that forms a critical thread to the whole globe. During the recent decades, the concern about the potential dangers due
to the accumulation of greenhouse gases has been growing. The major problem is that such gases allow the absorption of
infrared. Such gases give a chance for solar radiations from the sun to penetrate the Earth’s surface, and at the same time,
reabsorbing infrared radiations emitted from it. This problem is called the greenhouse effect or the global warming.
Global warming is considered the most critical energy-related environmental issue. The rising concentration of gases such
as Carbon dioxide, halons, ozone and CH4 in the atmosphere, increases the atmosphere's capability to trap heat radiated from
the Earth's surface, raising the overall temperature. Over the last century, the global temperature increased by about 0.6 Celsius
degree, and therefore, the sea level was raised by about 20 cm. Further impacts that have broad and catastrophic effects on
human beings could have happened. Increasing in global concentrations of greenhouse gases along with predicted fossil fuel
waste increment can cause the Earth’s temperature to globally increase by 2 or 4 Celsius degrees, causing further increment in
sea level by 30 to 60 cm, which can lead to flooding of coastal cities, disturbance of vegetation, forcing people to leave their
homeland and decreasing the amount of available fresh water. Humankind is contributing through many of its economic and
other activities to the increase in the atmospheric concentrations of various greenhouse gases. For example, CO2 emission due
to combustion of fossil fuels, methane releases from increased human activity, CFC emissions, and deforestation all contribute
to increasing the greenhouse effect.
Methods to effectively reduce the Carbon dioxide emissions needs analytical cost evaluation by governments. In the
developing countries, the relationship between expenses and environmental benefits has to take into consideration the need for
laws and policies that increase the economic growth. Fulfilling such a balance between emission control and economic growth
requires adopting policies that aim at developing the efficiency of energy utilisation and implementing internal policies that
allow easy access to new technologies and resources. The arguments about the magnitude of the greenhouse effect have gone
back and forth for some time. There are those who believe that the earth is doomed to a rise in temperature, and there are those
who believe that we can go on polluting the atmosphere without consequence. Whatever the argument is, there is no doubt that
the emissions are harmful and destroy the environment (Bradley, Watts, Williams 1991). Of course, there are several
contradictory reports and arguments published recently that make this field complicated to study. Moreover, more attention
should be given to the environment considering it an insufficient resource, and chemical discharging should be subjected to
strict constraints. It is expected that some countries will offer specific tax reductions for those businesses that promote
renewable energy technologies, mainly because of low or zero CO2 emission characterises these technologies.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
D. Energy and Economy

Energy fuels the economy. The importance of energy and its role in the economic growth initially comes from its
importance in production. According to production theories, the economy is represented as a closed system where inputs are
workforce and capital, and output is the product. Therefore, economic improvement results from improving inputs or raising
their quality.
The critical role of energy in production is indirect, and it is considered as an intermediate input in the production system.
According to Stern (Stern, D. 1991), there are primary and intermediate factors of production; the mainstream economists
accepted such a concept. Primary factors are the factors that are not directly used in the production process, and they must be
available at the beginning of the process, while common factors are factors which are used in the process of production. Primary
factors include labour, land and capital, while common factors include energy, materials and fuels. Georgescu-Roegen was the
first to stress the critical role of energy in the prosperity of the economic system in 1971 (Georgescu-Roegen 1971). After the
oil crisis in the 70s and 80s, much more attention was given to the energy resources and their price. Any increase in the energy
price will result in an increase in the domestic price level and a reduction in the output in the short run. Such a situation reduces
the general demand and may force industrial firms to change or to hold up their investment programs, mainly because higher
energy prices may lead to the higher interest rate. The supply response of labour and capital to such a situation will determine
the impact on output and employment. Increased energy prices lead to increased input prices which eventually lead to decreased
profitability (Nela, Saša 2010). Energy is an essential pre-requisite in the economic growth process. It is critical for the
necessary transformation to a more sustainable world where we can all have access to energy services to a more comfortable
and secure life. In the same time, a healthy economy is required to assure that energy demands are available, that investment
plans and infrastructure work are well carried out and that more research and development are taking place to ensure future
prosperity.
It is obvious nowadays that the leading countries worldwide are the countries with more energy resources. Owning a
massive portion of the energy resources worldwide sometimes lead to controlling the global economy. Energy resource has
been and will always be the target of every developing and already-developed countries. Recently, much more attention was
given to the renewable energy resources worldwide. Crude oil and natural gas are essential now, but they will not have such
importance forever as they may run-out in any time. Therefore, the future of energy depends on the renewable sources such as
wind, hydropower, biomass and solar energy. Moreover, unlike petroleum products, renewable energy resources are
environmentally friendly and nearly have no harmful impacts. More attention, investment and time should be given to
developing the way we extract and use the renewable energy resources in the future because in all ways they are much better
than the sources we are using now. As we can notice, the impact of energy and economy on one another is mutual. In one
hand, the Improved economy in certain societies makes it easier to afford enough energy demands. On the other hand, available
energy resources can lead to the prosperity and economic growth of a particular society.
III. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORKS

A. Porter hypothesis
According to the Porter hypothesis, strict environmental regulations can induce efficiency and encourage innovations that
help improve commercial competitiveness. The economist Michael Porter formulated the hypothesis in an article in 1995
(Wikipedia). The hypothesis suggests that strict environmental regulation triggers the discovery and introduction of cleaner
technologies and environmental improvements, the innovation effect, making production processes and products more
efficient (Wagner, M 2003), Please see figure 7.
Figure 7. The Porter hypothesis.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
B. E3 Model
As the global climatic change is growing, many researchers have realised that there is a need to research on the relationship
between energy, environment, and economics in different regions or at a country level.
E3 models is an integrated view on environment, energy, and economy. E3 models can quantify effects on the energy
system, economy and environment simultaneously. Therefore, E3 models are usually no partial models, and they provide an
integrated view of sustainability. Possible impacts of political measures can be evaluated, and rebound effects, winners, and
losers can be identified (Anett 2014). Well-known examples of E3 models are GEM-E3 from the European Commission (e.g.,
Kouvaritakis et al. 2005) and E3ME from Cambridge Econometrics (e.g., Pöyry, CE 2014).
Figure 8. Model of the Study – Zanzibar Environment-Energy-Economy. Adopted from The Regulatory Assistance Project: The E3-India Model
Theoretically, both the Porter hypothesis and E3 Model support this study. It has been proved that under the strict balance
between Economy and Environment has a direct relationship whereby one can have a more significant impact on the other.
Zanzibar needs to apply these two models if it wants to sustain its long-term economic development while also safeguard its
environment and hence use reliable environmental friendly energy sources, please see figure 8.
IV. ZANZIBAR'S DILEMMAS IN ENERGY, ECONOMY, AND ENVIRONMENT

A. Zanzibar Energy consumption
Zanzibar Islands gets most of its electric power from mainland Tanzania through a 39-kilometre, 100-megawatt submarine
cable from Ras Kiromoni (near Dar es Salaam) to Ras Fumba on Unguja and Pemba Islands has had a 75-kilometre, 25-
megawatt, subsea electrical link directly to mainland Tanzania. The laying of 75-kilometer, 25-megawatt new submarine cable,
subsea electrical link project that was funded by a 28.1 Million USD grant from the United States of America through the
Millennium Challenge Corporation that was implemented in 2012 (Embassy of the United States, Dar es Salaam, 2012). The
cable became operational on 13 April 2013 (Daily News, 2013). The previous old 45-megawatt cable, which was not well
maintained, was installed by Norway in 1980. This project ended years of another unreliable source of energy dependence
during the frequent power cuts in Zanzibar. Before this project, it was estimated that only 20% percent of the old cable's
capacity was being used, the new cable is expected to serve Zanzibar Electricity supply needs for about 20 - 25 coming years.
Because Zanzibar has not invested heavily in industries or manufacturing sectors, it is estimated that 70-75 of its electricity
consumptions are mainly for households needs. The Zanzibar residents also rely on another source of energy including coal
and wood. The consumption capacity of petroleum, gas, oil, kerosene and industrial diesel oil is increasing annually, going
from a total of 5,650 tons consumed in 1997 to more than 7,500 tons in 1999 (Nexans 2013). From 21 May to 19 June 2008,
Unguja suffered a significant failure of its electricity system, which left the island without electrical service and mostly
dependent on diesel generators. The failure originated in mainland Tanzania (BBC 2008).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
B. Zanzibar Economy
The Zanzibar economy is mainly agriculture. There is vast fertile land that produces agricultural products enough for
Zanzibar population which is estimated to be 1.5 million. Zanzibar mainly exports seaweed, spices, cassava, sweet potatoes,
citrus fruit, coconuts, and cacao. Zanzibar is also importing products like rice, cigarettes, shoes, clothes and processed
products. Zanzibar is mainly importing from China, India and other Asian countries. Tourism is growing fast in Zanzibar that
also supports its economy. About 50 percent of the Isle's population would be involved in tourism activities by the year 2020,
forecasting a robust growth of the sector in few years to come. So far, tourism is a source of Zanzibar's foreign currency
earnings by 70 percent. (The Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar). According to (UN Data 2018) Per capita GDP, US
dollars of Zanzibar increased from 201 USD in 1990 to 823 USD in 2016 growing at an average annual rate of 3.96 %.
Graph 3. The per capita GDP of Zanzibar. Source UN Data (National Accounts Main Aggregates Database)
Zanzibar economy has been stable for years. The GDP growth increases from 6.6 percent in 2015 to 6.8 percent in 2016,
(Please see graph 3). Similarly, per capita income increased from US$ 817 in 2015 to 830 in 2016. Zanzibar Annual Headline
Inflation rate for the year ended June 2018 increased to 3.5 percent compared to 2.7 percent recorded during the year ended
May 2018. (OCGS Zanzibar).
C. Zanzibar vision 2020
Zanzibar government has worked hard to improve the Isles' economy and changing the socio-economic status of its
citizens. The Revolutionary government of Zanzibar, to solve socioeconomic issues, in 2000 comes up with new Policy
namely, Zanzibar Vision 2020 which aimed at promoting Zanzibar economic growth while also eradicating poverty in the
Isles. The overall Vision 2020’s objective is to eradicate absolute poverty in the society. This is so because poverty is the single
greatest burden for the people. Indeed, it is not merely the lack of income that determines poverty; it is also the lack of
accessibility to the basic needs of the people (Zanzibar Vision 2020). Since its establishment, The Revolutionary Government
of Zanzibar has used this policy to come up with strategies of supporting its economic growth.
Ten years after the dawn of the millennium, significant changes have swept both the world and Zanzibar. While developed
countries suffered from the global financial crisis, many developing countries are catching up. As well as steady progress and
poverty reduction in China and India, there has been unprecedented economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (Zanzibar Vision
2020). To achieve the Zanzibar vision 2020, There were critical issues to be addressed including Energy and Environment.
Zanzibar Islands are too dependent on energy import from the neighbouring Tanzania mainland. Some of the economic
development goals were not achieved due to lack of enough supply of electricity to supports the Tourism sectors and other
vital industries. “We should make a smart, with selective and strategic investments in human resources, high-quality health
care, and basic and advanced infrastructure for transportation, electricity, water, and communication. We need to make more
concerted efforts to conserve the natural environment" (Dr Ali Shein 2011, President of Zanzibar). To achieve this
socioeconomic growth, Zanzibar needed well-planned energy policy long-term strategies which were lacking. To cite an
example, in 2008, Zanzibar suffered a four-week blackout. This month-long power blackout did threaten the tourism sector
which is the primary source of foreign currency income. The power cut was caused by a submarine cable that was broken and
necessitated the needs to be replaced with the new cable as it was not capable of supplying the quantity of energy demanded
in Zanzibar. The author believes that, if there were a balance between Energy and Economy in the Zanzibar Vision 2020
Policy, the policy could have resulted in more socioeconomic solutions.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
D. Zanzibar Environment Concerns

Recognizing the importance of its environment, the Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar launched the National
Environmental Policy for Zanzibar in 1992. The policy was deliberately launched to provide policy guidance intending to
protect and improve the environment in a manner which contributes to the quality of life of both present and future generations.
(Zanzibar Environmental Policy, 2013). The Paris Agreement was adopted on 12 December 2015 at the twenty-first session
of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change held in Paris from 30
November to 13 December 2015. Under its article 20, the Agreement shall be open for signature at the United Nations
Headquarters in New York from 22 April 2016 until 21 April 2017 by States and regional economic integration organisations
that are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (United Nations 2018). On 22nd April 2016,
The United Republic of Tanzania signed the COP21 Paris Climate Change Agreement. Tanzania Mainland also represents
Zanzibar as their signatory on the issues that need foreign representations. The reports show that climate change is already
having a profound impact on the lives of millions of Africans (Including Zanzibaris) and it also has impacted the economic
development of the African countries.
In recent years, there has been renewed optimism on the prospect of harnessing Africa's natural resources to realise social,
economic and political transformation and deliver sustainable development and prosperity to citizens (Climate Strategies,
2016). Even though many African countries including Tanzania (Zanzibar) has signed the Paris Agreement, but it is very
questionable if these developing countries can well deliver its pledges. Many of the developing countries lack the technological
development and climate change funding, and it is the role of developed countries to support these initiatives. At the national
level, still, Zanzibar need to address its climate and environmental challenges associated with its economic development, but
also come together to press harder for their interests on an international level. It is believed through the geopolitical union with
Tanzania mainland and also the new revived East African community, Zanzibar can get the needed support to address the said
challenges.
E. Sustainability Considerations
From this study, the author has found that The E3 dilemma, in the short term, gives an understanding on how to tackle
the challenges of balancing the rapid economic growth with environmental challenges associated with it. The study has also
highlighted the problems of not having the long-term strategies of supporting the economic growth with its expected
environmental challenges. Even though Zanzibar has national economic strategy namely, Zanzibar vision 2020, but the author
has found out that, there are no clear strategies to tackle the environmental problems that are brought with economic growth.
The supply of national grid electricity from Tanzania Electric Supply Company Limited (TANESCO) as the only primary
source of energy in Zanzibar is always insufficient to meet local energy demand. Politically, always relying on the import of
energy resources is also another challenge to be addressed. The author believes that, Because of its geolocation and its
proximity to India ocean, it is the right time now for Zanzibar to consider using other sources of renewable energy including
solar and wind sources. Through Public-private partnership (PPP) funding model, the Zanzibar Government has an opportunity
to invite international investors to fund the renewable energy projects in Zanzibar.
It has always been reported that the high rise in energy demand is also bringing up the prices of energy sources. This
poses yet another political and socioeconomic challenges as many citizens will not afford the prices of energy sources for their
daily use. To balance between Environment and Energy, the decision makers should always focus on renewable energy sources
while deciding the next energy projects. Zanzibar can decide whether to invest in large-scale wind or solar energy project to
complement the demand of energy in the Islands. The Zanzibar government has previously invested in Industrial scale diesel
generators, but because of the high prices of diesel in Zanzibar and the cost of running the project, the operation of this project
was halted and discontinued. Even though the initial investments of renewable energy sources are higher than the natural
sources, But the author has proposed Public-private partnership (PPP) funding investment model which has better economic
benefits in the long run. To make Zanzibar environmental friendly energy country, we should consider an E3 model that creates
a need balance between energy, economy, and environment.
V. CONCLUSION
Zanzibar vision 2020 has always promoted economic growth, promote tourism as the critical sector for foreign currency
income and supporting the agriculture as the national economic backbone, but it is worth to mention that, all these economic
growths need high energy use and will bring environmental cost. In this paper, the author has discussed the Zanzibar E3
Dilemma and proposed possible solutions. The author also believes that to solve this dilemma in the long run, Zanzibar still
needs to revise its long-term Energy, Economy, and Environment Policies.
Strategically, Zanzibar needs to find solutions if they do not want to become energy dependent in the long run while also
ensuring the sustainable economic developments. This also can help to safeguard its national interests by ensuring there is
always energy security in the Islands. Zanzibar must also adhere to international environmental agreements including the Paris
COP21 Environment Agreement. This relationship between energy, economy, and environment has a direct impact on social,
economic issues in the sovereign country like Zanzibar.
CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
The authors declare no conflict of interest.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
THE DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

The data used to support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon request.
REFERENCES
Anett, Grobmann (2014) Forecasting the 3E's (Environment-Energy-Economy): The Austrian model e3.at, Institute of Economic Structure Research
(Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung mbH), Osnabrueck, Germany
"Ambassador Lenhardt Participates in Ceremony to Install 100 Megawatt Submarine Power to Zanzibar". Press Release, Embassy of the United States, Dar
es Salaam, Tanzania, 10 October 2012.
Belyaev LS, Marchenko OV, Filippov SP, Solomin SV, Stepanova TB, Kokorin AL. World energy and transition to sustainable development. Kluwer,
Boston. 2002
Bradley R.A., Watts E.C., Williams E.R. Limiting Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United States. U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC. 1991.
DOE/EIA International energy outlook. Report #:DOE/EIA-0484. 2010. http://www.eia. gov/oiaf/ieo/highlights.html
Energy in 2017: Two steps forward, one step back, Spencer Dale London 13 June 2018
Forecasting the 3E's (Environment-Energy-Economy): The Austrian model e3.at: Anett, Grobmann, Institute of Economic Structure Research (Gesellschaft
für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung mbH), Osnabrueck, Germany
Gary JH, Handwerk GH. Petroleum refining technology, 3rd edn. Marcel Dekker, New York. 1994.
Georgescu-Roegen, N. The Entropy Law and the Economic Process, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass. 1971.
Hollander J.M., Brown D. Air pollution. In: The Energy-Environment Connection, J.M. Hollander, ed., Island Press, Washington, DC, pp. 15–49. 1992.
Illustration 25: Indicative Supply & Demand Cost structure for Energy Showing Demand Price in-elasticity (Weigt 2009)
List of parties to the Paris Agreement - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_parties_to_the_Paris_Agreement
Nela Vlahinić-Dizdarević, Saša Žiković. The role of energy in economic growth: the case of Croatia. 40 Zb. rad. Ekon. fak. Rij. vol. 28. sv. 1. 35-60. 2010
Paris Agreement in practice: what next for Africa and developing countries? Claudia Delpero - Climate Strategies (2016), Based on the proceedings of the
3rd Global Climate Policy Conference Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, 13-14 July 2016
Pascal, Charriau, and Crenes, Morgan (2018) - Global Energy Trends, A step backwards for the energy transition? Based on its 2017 data of G20 countries,
EnerData analyses the World energy markets trends.
Press release (3 June 2010). "Nexans Completes Subsea Cable Link to Provide Reliable Power for Pemba Island in Zanzibar – New 25 MVA Link to
Mainland Grid Has Enabled the Local Population to End Years of Dependence on Unreliable Diesel Generators". Nexans. Retrieved 14 September
2013.
Porter hypothesis - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porter_hypothesis
Rosen M.A., Dincer I. Linkages between energy and environment concepts, Proceedings of the TIEES-96 First Trabzon International Energy and
Environment Symposium (T. Ayhan, I. Dincer, H. Olgun, S. Dost and B. Cuhadaroglu, eds.), pp. 1051–1057, 29–31 July, Karadeniz Technical
University, Trabzon, Turkey. 1996.
Smil, Vaclav. Energies: An Illustrated Guide to the Biosphere and Civilization. The MIT Press: Cambridge, MA, 1999.
Staff (30 May 2008). "Melting in Zanzibar's Blackout." BBC News. Retrieved 14 September 2013.
Statistical Review of World Energy 2017, BP Plc, 1 St James's Square London, SW1Y 4PD, UK
Stern, D. I. “Is energy cost and accurate indicator of natural resource quality?”, Ecological Economics, 31, pp.381-394. 1999.
The Breakthrough of Global Energy storage, Rethinking the way we store energy 2018. Hydrogenious Technologies GmbH - Germany accessed at
http://www.hydrogenious.net/en/energy-storage/
The Regulatory Assistance Project (2017) The E3-India Model Technical model manual, Volume 5, Cambridge Econometrics, Cambridge UK.
The Economic Statistics Branch of the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) - 2018, Per capita GDP at current prices - US dollars. National Accounts
Estimates of Main Aggregates
Tourism in Zanzibar - Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar. http://zanzibar.go.tz/index.php?rgo=tourism
United Nations (2018), Paris Agreement, Environment Chapter XXVII, Paris 12 December 2015 accessed at
https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-d&chapter=27&clang=_en
Wagner, M.: The Porter Hypothesis Revisited. A Literature Review of Theoretical Model and Empirical Test. Lüneburg: Centre for Sustainability
Management, 2003, p.2 CSM Lüneburg.
Yussuf, Issa (24 April 2013). "Tanzania: Reliable Power to Accelerate Development in Isles President Ali." Daily News (Available: www.allafrica.com)
Retrieved 14 September 2013.
Zanzibar Environmental Policy (2013), The Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar, The First Vice President’s Office – Department of Environment,
Zanzibar.
Zanzibar Vision 2020, Development Partners Group (DPG) accessed at
http://www.tzdpg.or.tz/fileadmin/_migrated/content_uploads/Zanzibar_Vision_2020.pdf
Zanzibar - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zanzibar
Zanzibar Annual Statistics Reports, 2018. Office of the Chief Government Statistician Zanzibar (OCGS Zanzibar), Zanzibar Tanzania.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Development of a multiple risks measurement framework for urban

resilience
Ebisudani, M.,1,* dos Muchangos, L.S.,2 and Cortes, A.C.3
1
Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University, Yamada-oka 2-1 Suita 565-0871 Osaka, Japan;
*
ebisudani@em.see.eng.osaka-u.ac.jp
2
Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability, United Nations University, Jingumae 5-53-70 Shibuya, Tokyo, 150-
8925, Japan
3
College of Science, University of the Philippines Cebu, Gorordo Avenue Lahug, Cebu City 6000 Cebu, Philippines
Abstract—Over the last decade, the concept of resilience has been introduced in national and local policies, along with the
rapid increase in research which has considered ways to assess resilience. Particularly in the urban resilience debate, an
understanding of multiple risks is essential, as risks become more complicated and diversified with increased urbanization.
This study presents an urban resilience measurement framework, considering key urban systems dimensions: institution and
governance; socio-economy; urban ecology and technical; and urban stock. The framework relies on several analytical
methodologies to comprehensively address the urban system dimensions, and focuses on introducing other possible
quantitative methodologies, which helps with determining and prioritizing multiple risks and analyzing different stakeholders.
This study further develops a previous framework [3], by applying four phases: Determination, Prioritization, Measurement,
and Analysis. Firstly, determination and prioritization of the multiple risks threatening urban resilience is conducted through
the application of structural modeling methods’ Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) and the Decision-Making Trial and
Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL). This stage also aids understanding of the hierarchical structure and cause-effect
relationships among those multiple risks. Secondly, the city capacity to cope with the most significant risk is evaluated through
the application of existing indicators, combined with geographical information tools. Lastly, analysis of the gaps and
opportunities in policy and planning are identified by conducting a Stakeholder Analysis (SA) and a Social Networking
Analysis (SNA) of interactions among stakeholders. The outputs from the application of this framework can inform policy and
practices in relation to the identification and adoption of proactive measures to ensure functioning resilient and sustainable
urban areas.
Keywords—assessment, framework, sustainable cities, urban resilience, urban systems
I. INTRODUCTION
I N an era of massive urbanization and urban communities, focus on reducing cities’ vulnerabilities and increasing resilience
has become significant for understanding urban sustainability. To introduce the concept of resilience in urban areas, a
measurement framework has been developed, with particular relevance buildings and other structures, municipal
infrastructures and facilities, networks, and communities’ economic activities [1]. Nonetheless, in line with increased
urbanization, the efforts towards a broad and holistic measurement of resilience continues to gain prominence as potential risks
become more diversified and complicated. While most studies and interventions have been limited to a specific type of risk
[5], building resilience at an urban level requires a systematic effort, which can be accomplished through the design of a
cohesive and feasible framework, which considers multiple risks.
Ebisudani and colleagues [3] built an integrated measurement framework for urban resilience. The study focused on city-
wide management of multiple risks by identifying the potential risks and their interrelationships, and by assessing the city
capacity and the level of preparedness to withstand those risks. This original framework was composed of three main steps;
Risk Determination, City Capacity, and City Preparedness. The first step, Risk Determination, focused on overviewing
potential multiple-risks and identifying what risks an urban area faces. Following the selection of significant risks, the second
step measured neighboring cities’ current capacities to recover from those risks. Lastly, in the third step, the framework
measured the level of city preparedness relative to both public concern and existing policy. This framework was implemented
in Japanese urban areas to demonstrate their resilience status. The results indicated four significant local risks, and a differential
degree of capacity and preparedness in each city demonstrated the possible approaches to managing these risks: risk
management and resilience management. However, one limitation of this study is that only experts and local officials were
used as informants, and so there was no opportunity to compare different perspectives from other stakeholders. There remains
a need to further develop quantitative approaches to urban resilience research. And there is a need to design systematic,
cohesive, and feasible frameworks that can respond to the complexities and dynamic processes occurring in urban systems.
Therefore, this present study proposes further steps in assessing urban resilience, especially by considering key urban
systems dimensions. This study focuses on introducing other possible quantitative methodologies, which helps determining
and prioritizing multiple risks and analyzing different stakeholders.
II. URBAN SYSTEMS TO CONSIDER FOR URBAN RESILIENCE

Based on the literature review, critical urban systems that play a significant role in achieving the decisive transition to
urban resilience are presented. Urban systems are a representation of ecological, social, and technical components, with
scholars calling for cities to be framed as complex socio-ecological systems, composing of networks that are both socio-
ecological and socio-technical [4, 6, 7, 8]. As Desouza and Flanery [2] suggested, at the highest level of analysis, cities can be

polocentre.org
icshge.org
divided into two essential overlapping elements: the social element, which includes people, institutions, and activities; and the
physical element, composed of all the resources and processes. Referring to the previous works of scholars, the elements of a
city can be further divided into four primary systems: (i) Institution and governance; (ii) socio-economic system; (iii) urban
ecology and technical system; and (iv) stock system (Figure 1). These systems are interrelated at multiple spatial and temporal
scales and thus, all need to be considered.
Figure 1. The conceptualization of urban systems (Adapted from [2], [6], [7]).
III. FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING URBAN RESILIENCE CONSIDERING MULTIPLE RISK CONTEXTS
The proposed framework is composed of four phases (Figure 2). The Determination phase overviews potential local risks
and generates a list of multiple risks for each group of stakeholders (e.g. governmental institutions, academia, and lay people,
etc.). The Prioritization phase categorizes those risks to identify the most influential risk among them. Following the
identification of the significant risks, the Measurement phase evaluates the level of neighboring cities’ potential capacity to
recover from those risks. Lastly, the Analysis phase assesses the gap between existing local policy/strategy and public
perception.
IV. DETERMINATION AND PRIORITIZATION PHASES

In the proposed framework, different stakeholder groups are included to further understand their perception of existing
risks and how those risks are managed in their daily lives, through the application of structural modeling methods’ Interpretive
Structural Modeling (ISM) and the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL). Then, in the Prioritization
phase, those risks are categorized according to the urban systems defined in the previous section, and the interrelationships
among the risks to determined, in order to identify the most significant risks. This is again achieved by applying the
combination of ISM and DEMATEL.
V. MEASUREMENT PHASE
This phase focuses on evaluating the potential city capacity for resilience against the most significant risk, using the
statistical approach of standardization with a common set of resilience indicators covering a number of factors: economic,
socio-demographic, community connection, and environmental. These datasets are transferred to the Geographic Information
System (GIS) to overview the spatial distribution; the higher the score, the higher the resilience. This information is relevant
to build networks for neighboring city collaboration in times when a city faces risk.
VI. ANALYSIS PHASE

As a further development from the original framework, the last phase of the proposed framework is the Analysis.
Following up the existing policy analysis for understanding the degree of city preparedness, a stakeholder analysis (SA) can
be conducted to assess public perception. Furthermore, the sharing of information and the current partnerships and
collaborations can be addressed by applying the principles of Social Networking Analysis (SNA). This helps to identify active
collaborations and potential information sharing avenues among stakeholders, increasing preparedness and reducing risk
anxiety.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Figure 2. Research framework for assessing urban resilience.
VII. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE RESEARCH

The framework proposed here builds on the previous framework by adding further comprehensive approaches, which
consider the elements of both physical and social dimensions of urban systems, as well as the stakeholders that are part of it.
Also, building a network for neighboring city collaboration is a significant requirement to prepare for future disasters. In a
four-step process, it combines several scientific methodologies and tools to identify, prioritize, measure and analyze the risks
threatening each of the four central urban systems: institution and governance; socio-economic system; urban ecology and
technical system; and stock system. The inclusion of the perspectives of the stakeholders and the interconnectivity of the main
aspects that characterize the structure and functioning of the target city are the basis of the framework. It is also aimed to
contribute to our understanding of urban science, both from a scientific and practical perspective, and the links between the
two. This, it is believed, will help work towards sustainable communities.
For future research, it is recommended that the framework is applied in case studies of different locations around the
globe, in order to validate and test its feasibility, and to allow for comparisons and lesson exchanges on urban resilience.
REFERENCES
[1] B. M. Ayyub, “Practical Resilience Metrics for Planning, Design, and Decision Making,” ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertain. Eng. Syst., pp. 1–11, 2015.
[2] K. C. Desouza and T. H. Flanery, “Designing, planning, and managing resilient cities: A conceptual framework,” Cities, 35, pp. 89–99, 18, 2013.
[3] M. Ebisudani, S. Kishimoto, H. Yamaguchi, T. Nakakubo and A. Tokai, “An Integrated Measurement Framework of City Resilience for
Preparedness: A Case Study for Japan,” Journal of Sustainable Development, 10(6), p. 106. 11, 2017.
[4] P. Romero-Lankao, D. M. Gnatz, O. Wilhelmi and M. Hayden, “Urban sustainability and resilience: from theory to practice,” Sustainability, 8(12),
pp. 1–19, 2016.
[5] S. Hosseini, K. Barker, and J. E. Ramirez-Marquez, “A review of definitions and measures of system resilience,” Reliability Engineering and System
Safety, 145, pp. 47–61, 12, 2016.
[6] S. Meerow, J. P. Newell and M. Stults, “Defining urban resilience: A review,” Landscape and Urban Planning, 147, pp. 38–49, 26, 2016.
[7] X. Bai and H. Schandl, “Urban ecology and industrial ecology,” in The Routledge Handbook of Urban Ecology, I. Douglas, D. Goode, M. Houck and
R. Wang, Eds. Abingdon: Routledge, 2010, pp. 26-37.
[8] Y. Jabareen, “Planning the resilient city: Concepts and strategies for coping with climate change and environmental risk,” Cities, 31, pp. 220–229, 17,
2013.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
A GIS based Fire Station Site Selection using Network Analysis and Set
Covering Location Problem (Case study: Tehran, Iran)
Davoodi, M.,* and Mesgari, M.S.
Faculty of Geodesy and Geomatics, K.N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran; * mojtaba.davoodi@ut.ac.ir
Abstract—The process of fire stations site selection is always traditionally based on the experience of a few people in some
special organizations or with regard to available facilities in cities. On the other hand, the proper distribution of fire stations is
essential in order to provide relief to vulnerable areas in times of crisis. In the meantime, the correct, accurate and scientific
site selection of the fire stations will be an important step in improving the relief operation during the crisis. In this research,
a hybrid model has been developed based on Network Analysis and Set Covering Location Problem (SCLP) for the site
selection of fire stations in Tehran, Iran. At first, the areas that are covered by the 3-minute standard time of 112 existing fire
stations were found on Tehran road network. Then the operational areas of the fire stations were divided into 308 sub-areas
and the centers of these areas were considered as demand points in order to respond within the 3-minute standard. By examining
the coverage matrix for 112 fire stations, 86% of the areas were covered by standard relief time. By solving the scenario, 29
sub-areas were designed to achieve 100% coverage of sub-areas.
Keywords—geographical information system, fire station, site selection, network analysis, set covering location problem
I. INTRODUCTION
E VERY year many people lose their lives due to various accidents such as fires. The inappropriate dispersion of fire stations
can be considered as one of its reasons. Unfortunately, since site selection of many fire stations were based on the
experience of traditional experts and traditional methods, their inadequate dispersion always causes problems in standard
response time of 3 minutes. Accidents are considered as part of the inevitable reality that the control of their occurrence is
largely out of the reach of human beings, but they can be minimized by taking measures to reduce the effects of these incidents.
One of the challenges of responding to emergencies is access to the accident site in the shortest possible time, which will be
effective in reducing damages. Delay in response time increases the damage and may cause death, while timely responses, in
addition to preventing material damage, will save people. Facility placement is one of the key elements in the strategic decision-
making and strategic planning of public and private sector organizations. Therefore, location issues are some of the most
important issues that have attracted the attention of many researchers, because the proper use of these methods in many
applications around the world has led to a significant reduction cost and will cover more demand points.
Due to the necessity of access to the fire area in the shortest possible time, the location of the stations is required to be at
a distance that at least the first car reaches the incident at the last point of coverage in standard time of 3 minutes. In this
research, firstly, coverage of demand examined by existing fire stations and then a model was developed to minimize the
number of sub-areas for the construction of a fire station in order to achieve 100% coverage.
II. PREVIOUS RESEARCH

One of the problems of locating emergency equipment is the location of fire stations, which, due to the great importance
of rescuing people in firefighting, have been the subject of many studies in the developed countries to select appropriate places
for the fire stations. The first studies on the location of fire stations are referred to Valinskaya studies, in which it was suggested
that the optimal solution is to reduce the total loss of fire and the cost of providing services to the lowest possible extent [1].
In other words, suitable fire stations site selection can have the following benefits: 1) It can reduce the distance between
fire stations and accident locations to improve response times. 2) Minimizing overlapping of fire station services to improve
the effective use of resources. 3) Can determine the appropriate number of fire stations in one area, taking into account the
economic conditions between the accident casualty costs, the total cost of preparation and operational costs [2].
In recent years, the issue of the location of emergency equipment and relief supplies has attracted considerable attention
in scientific and academic communities. Başar et al have developed theoretical and practical foundations for locating
emergency equipment. The three following approaches are: a) queue models; and simulations; and c) mathematical models.
The most well-known mathematical models, including the cover coating model provided by Torgas, and the maximum
coverage model developed by Church and Roll. This paper focuses on the use of math models based on coverage [3].
The issue of maximum spatial coverage was first introduced by Revelle and Church. It has been proved that this issue, in
terms of technical competence and practical importance, has a major contribution to location analysis and modeling. A number
of commercial software packages based on a spatial information system such as ArcGIS and TransCAD, has also been
synchronized for general use. This paper provides an overview of the problem of maximum coverage of fire stations [4].
Yücel and Salman examined the issue of covering urban emergency infrastructures in the event of a collapse in the urban
road network in Istanbul. By a systematic model, we can predict access from supply-to-demand points, which results in more
effective decisions about the location of emergency infrastructures. For this purpose and assuming that the failure of a network
edge (street) damages adjacent edges that are also more vulnerable to structural damage, the impact of the accident distance
can be modeled by the accidental damage on network edges (streets). From any available supply point for each point of
demand, a set of alternative routes is created, so for the sake of ease of post-accident transfer, the shortest relief route will be
used. The goal is to maximize the expected demand coverage with a clear distance across the entire network [5].

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Van Den Berg et al in collaboration with the Amsterdam Fire Department in the Netherlands, presented a computational
programming model for determining the optimal locations of the main stations and the optimal distribution of firefighting
machines at these stations. An extensive analysis of a large collection of data from the Fire Department of Amsterdam shows
that: 1. Only by moving three bases from the current locations, more than 50% of the delays of the fire department can be
reduced; 2. Adding new locations to improve performance is not necessary: Optimizing the location of current stations is
effective and cost savings. The results show that with little investment in the relocation and transfer of a few stations, there is
a huge potential for a significant reduction in fire hazard delays [6].
III. METHOD OF RESEARCH

Facility location has several main features of space, measurement criteria, sets of demand points and sets of service centers
for candidates. The need for service points is met by selecting service centers and allocating them to these points. Finding the
location of a number of service centers and determining how they are allocated to demand points is to maximize the profits or
minimize the costs. In general, the term placement refers to modeling, formulating and solving problems that can be defined
by placing the facility in the best available space.
In complete coverage models with a covering limit, the radius of the fire stations is considered to be 3 minutes, that is,
from the moment of departure of the fire department from the relevant station to the fire point, Shouldn’t be more than 3
minute. It should be noted that in this research, covering a region means covering the center of that area within 3 minutes.
In this research, we are looking for all neighborhoods and points to be covered within 3 minutes, which is achieved using
Set Covering Location Problem. The collection coverage model is designed to minimize the number of stations, so that all
demand points are covered. And any demand point is covered at least by a dish facilitator or a critical time. The relationships
used in this model are as follows.
Min ∑ ∑c
j ∈J k ∈K
k x jk (1) ∑ ∑d
j ∈N i k ∈K
ij x jk ≥ 1 ∀i ∈ I (2)
∑x
k ∈K
jk
≤ 1 ∀j ∈ J (3) x jk ∈ {0,1} ∀j ∈ J , ∀k ∈ K (4)
I: a set of demand points, J: a set of candidate points for the construction of a fire station, 𝐶𝐶𝑘𝑘 : the cost of the construction and
commissioning of each fire station of K, 𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 : travel time between two zones i and j, 𝑋𝑋𝑗𝑗𝑗𝑗 : A decision variable is zero and one if
a fire station K is set to j, one and otherwise is zero. On the other hand, the objective function (1) minimizes the cost of
stationing the required stations. Limit (2) ensures that stations that cover each area can respond to the number of fires in that
area. Limitation (3) states that at each point of the candidate it is allowed to be constructed A fire station is also present.
Limitation (4) also shows that the model is a linear programming problem.
IV. RESULTS
In this research, Tehran was selected as the study area due to the huge part of the important and vital infrastructure of the
country and the population. The most important data used in this research is the road network of Tehran. Because analysis of
the coverage of stations on the road network can be implemented. This information includes highways, main and secondary
arteries, and collectors and distributors. Other 112 fire stations data are available. On the other hand, Tehran's regions were
divided into 308 sub-districts, according to the urban road network, and population density, that center of sub-areas were used
as demand points as well as candidate seats for the construction of new fire stations. All points are mapped based on the WGS
84 reference ellipsoid and displayed in the UTM system.
As mentioned, the used network includes highway, first grade arterial road, second grade arterial road, and collector road,
followed by calculating the of 3-minute coverage. On the other hand, the operation speed for the city network of Tehran was
considered as Table 1. It should be explained that the “operating speed” is 85% of the maximum authorized speed (operating
speed = maximum authorized speed * 0.85). This is due to the lack of access to traffic information and the traffic load on urban
roads.
TABLE I
OPERATING SPEED OF ROADS
Road Type Highway Arterial (first grade) Arterial (second grade) Collector
Operating Speed (km/h) 76.5 76.5 51 34
Considering the speed in Table 1 for the defined roads in the spatial database and the establishment of the city network
in Tehran, using the network analysis tool in spatial information systems, 3-minute coverage of existing fire stations and
centers of sub-areas are displayed in Figure 1.
By examining the coverage matrix for existing fire stations and Set Covering Location Problem formula, 86% of the areas
are covered in 3 minutes, accounting for 84% of the fire events in these areas. In Figure 2, areas outside the 3-minute coverage
of fire stations are shown. Therefore, it is necessary to specify for the coverage of 100% of the candidate points according to

polocentre.org
icshge.org
the areas considered.
Figure 1. 3-minute coverage of existing fire stations and sub-area centers.
Figure 2. Out of standard 3-minute coverage.
Similarly, for the center of areas, the matrix of the coverage was extracted. By solving the scenario presented in the
research method, 29 sub-regions were obtained to achieve coverage of 100%. We can construct new fire stations in these
specific sub-regions to achieve 100% coverage in Tehran city.
The coverage matrix that used was calculated according to the center of the areas as demand points. So that if any of these
areas covered by each of the fire stations is displayed as 1, otherwise it will be marked with 0. In Table 2, a section of the
coverage matrix is given.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
TABLE II
A SECTION OF THE COVERAGE MATRIX
V. CONCLUSION
According to the coverage matrix, 42 sub-areas were not covered by any fire station at standard time of 3 minutes. These
sub regions are shown in Table 2. In other words, 86% of the areas below are at least covered by a fire station, and the rest are
not covered by standard coverage. By solving the scenario in order to reach 100% coverage in the whole city of Tehran,
according to the urban network, 29 sub-areas were obtained, with the construction of fire stations in these areas, we will be
witnessed the coverage of all demand points in standard 3-minute coverage.
REFERENCES
[1] D. Valinsky, “Symposium on Applications of Operations Research to Urban Services—A Determination of the Optimum Location of Fire-Fighting
Units in New York City,” J. Oper. Res. Soc. Am., vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 494–512, Nov. 1955.
[2] G. H. Tzeng and Y. W. Chen, “The optimal location of airport fire stations: A fuzzy multi-objective programming and revised genetic algorithm
approach,” Transp. Plan. Technol., vol. 23, no. 1, pp. 37–55, 1999.
[3] A. Başar, B. Çatay, and T. Ünlüyurt, “A taxonomy for emergency service station location problem,” Optim. Lett., vol. 6, no. 6, pp. 1147–1160, 2012.
[4] C. ReVelle and K. Hogan, “A Reliability-Constrained Siting Model with Local Estimates of Busy Fractions,” Environ. Plan. B Plan. Des., vol. 15, no.
2, pp. 143–152, Jun. 1988.
[5] F. S. Salman and E. Yücel, “Emergency facility location under random network damage: Insights from the Istanbul case,” Comput. Oper. Res., vol. 62,
pp. 266–281, Oct. 2015.
[6] P. L. Van Den Berg, G. A. G. Legemaate, and R. D. van der Mei, “Increasing the Responsiveness of Firefighter Services by Relocating Base Stations in
Amsterdam,” Interfaces, vol. 47, no. 4, pp. 352–361, May 2017.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Prospects and Problems of Pirate Public Inter-City Transport Services in

Lokoja, Kogi State
Adetunji, M.A.
Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts & Social Sciences, Federal University Lokoja, Kogi State, Nigeria;
musilimuadetunji@yahoo.com
Abstract—This study examines the characteristics, prospects and risks associated with the operation of the pirated inter—city
transport services in Lokoja, Nigeria. Both primary and secondary data were required for this study. Two sets of questionnaire
were designed to elicit information on the operation of the pirate inter-city transport services in Lokoja metropolis. The first
set of questionnaire numbering one hundred and eighty copies was administered to the pirate transport operators soliciting
information on their mode of operation. The second set of questionnaire was administered to the union executives of formal
transport operators about their mode of operation as well as the challenges encountered with the pirate transport operation in
the state. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyse the data. The findings reveal that more than 70% of the
pirate transport vehicles are low occupancy types. Approximately 40.1% of the respondents claim that they became pirates in
order to avoid unnecessary queue at the terminals. An absence of the usage of manifest by the pirate transport service operators
left much to be desired. The study recommends that the operation of the pirate transport services should be reviewed and
incorporated into the formal public transport services because of its large patronage by travellers in Nigeria.
Keywords—transport services, pirated, safety, income and government policy
I. INTRODUCTION
M ORE than 90% of households in the developing countries especially in Sub-Saharan Africa do not own or have access
to a private automobile for their journey purposes. Thus, they rely mostly on public transport services for their trips to
markets, visiting relatives, recreation and other destinations either within their cities or to neighbouring communities (Cervero,
2000). Inability of the public transport service to meet travel demand for the fast growing population in the world has led to
the proliferation of all forms of informal transport services in all nook and cranny of towns and cities as well as intra –city
routes in both developed and developing countries (Cervero, 2000). The situation in Nigeria is much more complex where
different forms of informal transport service vehicles such as mini-buses, cab, micro bus, van and “Korope” in Osun State and
“Molue” and “Bolekaja” in Lagos State are operated on both inter and intra-city roads to carry passengers from one place to
another (Sooner, 2011). The pirate transport operators carry out their services illegally either on intra-city or inter-city roads.
In most cases this form of transport service fails to wait for their turn to take commuters or passengers. Some scholars have
described informal transport service as those that have not met the certification requirements of the commercial public road
transport such as minimum vehicle size, maximum age and fitness standards (Ministry of Transport and Communication
Transport Authority, 2011 as cited in Kassa, 2013). However, this is not so in the Nigerian context. Many pirate transport
operators are legitimate members of Road Transport Workers because they have fully registered with their association but
become illegal operators when they load or carry passengers outside their terminals for whatsoever reasons. Pirate transport
service is used to refer to collective public road transport with little or no control of its operation by an overall regulatory
authority or no respect for routes and no published or fixed fare structure (International Association of Public Transport (UITP),
2010). The uses of pirate (informal) transport services for inter- city movement in many African cities arose from the
unavailability of other modes of transport services particularly air and railways in different parts of the continent (Kassa, 2013).
In some developing countries such as the Philippines, Benin, Bangladesh, Sri- Lanka and Nigeria in particular, informal
transport sector is a major source of employment for the people who come from the poorest segment of the society as well as
being idle or from the lower paying formal sector jobs (Ogunsanya and Galtima, 1993; Sooner, 2011). According to Sooner
(2011) the number of transport workers in the Philippines grew from 1 million (1988) to 2 million (2002) and this was
considered to be above the overall employment growth rate of 2-3% per annum in the country (Pascual, 2006 as cited in
Sooner, 2011).
In an assessment of the characteristics of pirate (informal) transport services, Cervero (2000) affirmed that bus services
can be found along inter-city routes in parts of South America, Sub- Saharan Africa and East Asia, while low occupancy
vehicles such as station wagons, private cars and many others operate illegally on intra-city routes to convey passengers to
different locations. Some of the operators hang around supermarkets, petrol stations and shopping centres, providing door-to
door services to areas where many legal taxi operators refuse to go to (Cervero, 2000). The services of these illegal transport
operators are generally more accessible, faster and cheaper than formal transport because they do not wait until their vehicles
are fully loaded before they commence their journey (Federal Ministry for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2010).
In terms of geographical coverage of pirate transport services, trip distance increase with vehicle size. Smaller vehicles travel
short distances but large occupancy vehicles such as buses mostly operate on intra-city roads.
A careful search of literature on the operation of pirate transport services in some of the developing countries of the world
indicates that their activities are booming as they are providing travel demand for the fast growing population. However, their
operations are confronted with myriads of problems which include but not limited to intimidation from the formal transport
industry, traffic congestion, road traffic crashes, excessive competition, air pollution, health challenges and many others. A
detailed study of the operation of informal or pirate transport services in urban centres in both developed and developing

polocentre.org
icshge.org
countries are overwhelming in literature. In spite of this, few studies have been carried out researches on the characteristics,
prospects and problems of pirate inter-city transport services in North Central, Nigeria. It is on this background that this study
is designed to examine the operational activities of pirate transport services in Lokoja metropolis.
II. STUDY AREA

Lokoja metropolis is the study area. The city is located on latitude 70 45' 27.56'' - 70 51' 04.34'' N of the Equator and
longitude 6041' 55.64'' - 6045' 36.58'' E of the Greenwich Meridian close to the confluence of Rivers Niger and Benue (Adeoye,
2012). The city is strategically located in the North Central part of Nigeria which serves as a gateway for commuters that travel
between the South-western, South-eastern and Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria. Given its geographical location
in Nigeria, Lokoja has witnessed and continues to witness large volume of intra city vehicular movements on daily basis.
Lokoja has a population of 195,261(National Population Census, 2006). Shortly after Lokoja became the capital of Kogi State
in 1991, the city witnessed influx of migrant labourers from the neighbouring communities and other states of the federation.
Some of these migrant labourers are from the poorest segment of the society and are mostly unskilled and do not possess the
required qualifications to qualify them to be gainfully employed in the formal sector in the city. Majority of them therefore
take pirate transport service as employment opportunity to earn their livelihood (Ogunsanya and Galtima, 1993). Kogi State
Government provides formal public transport service popularly called Confluence Mass Transit / Kogi Travellers that conveys
passengers to Ibadan, Kaduna, Kano, Jos and Lagos metropolis only. Also, individuals that are members of the road transport
union also provide transport services to travellers to various destinations. However, many commuters travelling to other towns
and villages in Kogi State also rely on pirate transport services for their day to day transactions especially when in haste. This
is because services provided by the formal transport operators for travel demand for the fast growing population in this city to
the neighbouring communities and other states of the federation is inadequate. It is on this background that this study examines
the characteristics, prospects and challenges encountered by pirate public transport operators.

A. Materials
Two sets of data were required for this research. Both primary and secondary data were utilized and subsequently
analysed. The first category of data includes information on the operational characteristics of pirated transport services in
Lokoja environs. The information required includes vehicle types, where passengers are carried, transport fare to various
destinations, area coverage, vehicle ownership, reasons for operating as informal transport service, category of people
involved, waiting period before take–off, and challenges encountered during transit. The second category of data required was
on the opinion of formal transport service operators on the activities of pirate transport services on highways in Nigeria and
their overall effects on the transport industry and society at large as well as the measures taken against them. Also field
observations and focus group discussion with the officers of the National Road Transport Workers (NRTW) in three major
terminals were undertaken to seek their opinion on the activities of the pirated transport operators in Lokoja environs.
B. Methods
In the informal transport service, operators are constantly on the move to carry passengers. Therefore, it is difficult to pin
them down, and hence, a quota sampling technique was used to select an average of sixty pirate transport service operators of
different categories along the three major routes that connect Lokoja metropolis with other neighbouring communities. A
structured questionnaire was administered to operators of pirate transport services to elicit information about their mode of
operation, prospects and challenges during their journey purposes. In addition, union executives of formal transport services
in Lokoja metropolis were interviewed on issues relating to registration of vehicles, dues and levies as well as punishments
against members that violate their rules and regulations particularly in matters relating to the operation of pirate transport
services.
C. Method of Data Analysis / Analytical Techniques
Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyse the data. The descriptive statistics include tables of frequency,
percentages and graphs were used to present the operational characteristics of pirate transport services that include vehicle
types, transport fare to various destinations, vehicle ownership, reasons for operating as informal transport service, category
of people involved, waiting period before take –off and challenges encountered during transit. Analysis of Variance was used
to examine the variation on transport fare charged for the same destinations between formal and pirate transport services.
IV. RESULTS, FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION

Findings revealed that 60% of pirate transport services are owned and controlled by individual’s citizens of the society,
even though some of their vehicles are bought on hire purchase from motor dealers with exorbitant interest rate. Further
analysis indicated that 27.6% of the operators of these pirate transport services claim that they rented the vehicles from the
owners in order to earn their livelihood. Approximately 19% of the vehicles used by the pirate transport service operators are
owned by companies and are used without the consent of owners or directors of such organisations. Table 1 reveal that an
overwhelming proportion (75.3%) of the pirate transport services vehicles are low occupancy types such as taxi, Sharon,
Nissan Sunny and Datsun cars that convey between 4 and 6 passengers. Further analysis reveal that 17.1% of the pirate

polocentre.org
icshge.org
transport services are carried out by private car owners who are looking for stipends to supplement their income because of
the poor economic situation in the country. Only 0.6% of the pirate transport services are 18 sitter buses that travel long
distances to other states of the federation. Further analysis reveal that 35% and 28% of the pirate transport services conveyed
passengers to Yoruba speaking communities in Okun Land and Igala speaking communities in Igala Land respectively. Less
than 40% of pirated transport services travelled to other states of the federation particularly in Northern and South Western
Nigeria. This implies that the longer the distance travelled by the travellers, the lesser the number of pirate transport services
available for such destination. More than 70% of the low occupancy vehicles commuted short distances in the study area while
only 15% of large occupancy vehicles travelled long distances.
It is interesting to note that pirate transport services are constantly on the move. They convey passengers along the roads.
Table 1 reveal that 80.6% of the operators indicated that they carry their passengers on the roads whenever they are available.
17.1% of the operators claimed that they hide hides in market places or close to terminals to pick their passengers and only
2.4% of the operators hide in petrol stations to carry passengers. The operation of pirate transport services is regarded as illegal
in most countries of the world because they do not follow due process before carrying passengers on highways (Cervero, 2000;
Federal Ministry for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2010). However, the operation of this transport service is
booming on Nigerian roads. Table 1 indicated that 43.5% of the operators are looking for money to supplement their income
or earn their livelihood. This finding is similar to those of other studies carried out on informal public transport services in
some developing countries (Cervero, 2000; Ogunsanya and Galtima, 1993). According to those studies informal transport
operators are majorly dominated by low income earners from the formal sectors or unemployed people in the society.
Further analysis revealed that 40.6% of the operators of informal transport services claim that they became illegal
operators of transport services in order to avoid unnecessary queue at the terminals. Approximately 6% of the operators
indicated that they were financially handicapped to be fully registered with the Road Transport Union Association to qualify
them to operate legally on the inter-city roads. Only 3% of the operators claimed that priority given to union executives to load
passengers at terminals on daily basis before other members of the union is the reason that has forced operators to operate
illegally in order to cover the expenses incurred on vehicles bought on hire purchase and also cater for families.
TABLE I
OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS OF PIRATE TRANSPORT SERVICES IN LOKOJA
Variable Categories Frequency Percentage
Vehicle Owner Personal Vehicle 103 60.3
Employer Owned Vehicle 47 27.6
Company Vehicle 19 11.2
Government Vehicle 1 0.6
Total 170 100.0
Vehicle Type Small Vehicle 128 75.3
(4 Passengers)
Ten (10) Seats Buses 11 6.5
Eighteen (18) Seats Buses 1 0.6
Private Vehicle
Total 30 17.6
170 100.0
Where Passengers are Carried Petrol Stations 4 2.4
Along the Roads 137 80.6
Hiding Places 29 17.1
Total 170 100.0
Reasons for Operating Illegally as Unable to Register Fully with National Road Transport Union. 10 5.9
Transport Operator Too Much Levy pays to National Road Transport Union.
To avoid Unnecessary Long Queue at the Terminals. 7 4.1
Looking for money to Supplement their Income.
Priority given to the Union Executives to carry passengers 69 40.6
without any Queue at the Terminals.
Total 74 43.5
5 2.9
170 100.0
Geographical Coverage Other States of Nigeria 63 37.1
Okun Land 60 35. 3
Igala Land 47 27.6
Total 170 100.0
In an attempt to determine the prospect of pirate transport services in Lokoja and other cities in Nigeria, the frequencies
of trips made per day and the average waiting time to load passengers are very crucial to determine the patronage of this
transport service. Time is money, some travellers do not like to waste time at terminals in order to reach their various
destinations as planned. In this regard they prefer to travel by pirate transport service which is constantly on the move and
therefore saves time. Table 2 indicates that more than 60% of pirated transport operators do not wait for their vehicles to be
fully loaded before commencing their journey, while only 38.2% of operators indicated that they wait for some few minutes
in hidden places to fully load their vehicles before they take off.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
TABLE II
WAITING PERIOD
Do you wait to Load Passengers Frequency Percentage
Yes 65 38.2
No 105 61.8
Total 70 100.0
Generally, the money delivered to the owner of the vehicles and stipend realised by pirate transport operators on daily
basis is one of the factors that affect the operation and prospect of this transport service. The result of One-Way Analysis of
Variance reveals that the size of the vehicle varies with money delivered F(4, 169)=2.894, P<.024
TABLE III
MONEY DELIVERED AND VEHICLE CAPACITY
ANOVA
Vehicle type
Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F Sig.
Between Groups 14.594 4 3.648 2.894 .024
Within Groups 208.000 165 1.261
Total 222.594 169
The low transport fares charged by pirate transport service operators compared to the formal transport operators is one of
the major factors favouring the prospect of this mode of transportation in Nigeria. Two-Way Analysis of Variance was
employed to determine whether there is a significant variation on transport fare charged between formal and pirate transport
services. The result reveals that transport fare charged varies significantly by types of transport services and routes patronised,
F (6, 56) =17.9, P<.001. Also there was significant variation in the transport fare charged between formal and pirate transport
services, F (1, 56) =174.705, P<.001. Similarly, there was variation in transport fare charged to different destinations, F (6,
56= 230.866, P<.001). This implies that the transport fare is determined by types of public transport patronised (formal or
pirated) and destinations (See Table 4 and Figure 1).
TABLE IV
TWO-WAY ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE RESULT FOR VARIATION IN TRANSPORT CHARGES BETWEEN FORMAL AND PIRATE TRANSPORT SERVICES TESTS OF
BETWEEN-SUBJECTS EFFECTS
Dependent Variable: Transport Fare
Source Type III Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F Sig.
Corrected Model 118646428.571a 13 9126648.352 128.254 .000
Intercept 225003571.429 1 225003571.429 3161.907 .000
Public_Transport 12432142.857 1 12432142.857 174.705 .000
Route 98571428.571 6 16428571.429 230.866 .000
Public_Transport * Route 7642857.143 6 1273809.524 17.900 .000
Error 3985000.000 56 71160.714
Total 347635000.000 70
Corrected Total 122631428.571 69
R Squared = .968 (Adjusted R Squared = .960)
Figure 1. Variation on Transport Charges between Formal and Pirate Transport Service across Various Routes.
The frequency of trips made per week by pirate transport service operators is another important variable used to determine the
prospect of their operation on inter –city routes in Nigeria. Table 5 reveals that 40% of pirate transport operators claim that
they conveyed passengers to different destinations for more than 5times in a week. Another 37.6% of the operators indicated
that they travelled between 2 and 3 times per week. 18.9% of the operators revealed that they load passengers between 4 and
5times per week. It is obvious that virtually all pirate transport operators have opportunities to convey travellers from Lokoja

polocentre.org
icshge.org
to other communities either within the state or other states of the federation. This shows a strong prospect for this transportation
service particularly for the new comers into the industry.
TABLE V
FREQUENCY OF TRIPS MADE BY PIRATE TRANSPORT OPERATORS IN LOKOJA
Variable Frequency Percentage
Once 5 2.9
2-3 times 64 37.6
4-5times 33 19.4
More than 5 times 68 40.0
Total 170 100.0
Despite the significant contribution of pirate transport services in terms of the provision of employment opportunity to
some of the poorest people in the society, its easy accessibility to travellers, faster nature and non-delay of passengers before
they take off, it is pertinent to note that pirate transport services are faced with myriad of problems such as traffic congestion,
intimidation from formal transport industry officials and the police. Non- possession of manifest and charging of transport fare
below the official rate stipulated by formal transport industry also compounded their problems. Table 6 reveals that 22.4% of
pirated transport operators claimed that they are usually intimidated by formal transport industry officials’ at least within a
week. Approximately 30% of pirated transport operators indicated that they were extorted by touts before they were allowed
to carry passengers on daily basis. This indirectly eroded the income that would have accrued to them and worsen their financial
status. Further analysis revealed that 16% of them indicated that they do not wait for their vehicles to be fully loaded before
they take off. Another 16.5% of pirate transport services operators claimed that they charged transport fares below the official
rates. This led to fierce competition for passengers between formal and pirate transport service operators in Nigeria. Many of
the pirate transport operators interacted with claimed that they do not have manifest which invariably put travellers at risk in
case of a road traffic crash.
TABLE VI
CHALLENGES OF PIRATED TRANSPORT SERVICES
Challenges of Pirate Transport Services Frequency Percentage
Intimidation by formal and informal public 38 22.4
transport
Extortion by Touts/ Bus Conductors 39 22.9
Arrest and Severe punishment 38 22.4
Not Fully Loaded before take off 27 15.9
Negotiation for Transport Charged 28 16.5
Total 170 100.0
V. CONCLUSION AND PLANNING IMPLICATIONS

This study examined the operational characteristics of pirate transport services in Lokoja and its environs. Both primary
and second data were utilised for the research. Using descriptive and inferential statistical techniques, findings reveal that more
than 70% of pirate transport service vehicles are low occupancy. Less than 40% of these vehicles operate within the state.
More than 60% of the operators of pirate transport services claimed they do not wait for their vehicles to be fully loaded before
they take off for their journey. There is fierce competition between pirate and formal transport operators in the study area.
Extortion from touts, intimidation from the formal transport industry officials and low transport fares charged are the
impediments facing pirate transport services in the study area. The study recommends that the operation of pirate transport
services should be reviewed and their operators be encouraged to register an association that is legally backed since their
services are patronised by many Nigerians.
REFERENCES
Adeoye, N. O. (2012), Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Land Use/Cover Change of Lokoja: A Confluence Town, Journal of Geography and Geology, Vol. 4,
No. 4, pp. 40 -51.
Cervero R. (2000), Informal Transport in the Developing World. United Nations Centre for Human Settlements (Habitat) Nairobi.
Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (2010), Informal Public Transport. Division 44. Water, Energy and Transport. Available at
https://www.sutp.org/files/.../F.../GIZ_SUTP_RL_Informal-Public-Transport_EN.pdf
International Association of Public Transport (UITP) (2010), Overview of Public Transport in Sub-Saharan Africa. “Trans- Africa Consortium” project
supported by European Union.
Kassa, F. (2014). Informal Transport and Its Effects in the Developing World- A case study of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Journal of Transport Literature, Vol.
8, no 2. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S2238-10312014000200006
MoTC, Ministry of Transport and Communication Transport Authority (2011) Revised commercial passenger transport quality certificate and dispatch
rule and regulation work flow, February, Addis Ababa.
Ogunsanya and Galtima (1993): Motorcycle in Public Passenger Transport in Nigeria: Case Study of Yola Town, Passenger Transport in Nigeria, Ibadan,
Heinemann Educational Book, pp. 190-207.
Pascual C. (2006), Organising Informal Transport Workers: A Case Study of the National Transport Workers’ Union Philippines. International Transport
Workers’ Federation, Available at http://www.wiego.org/publications/organising-informal-transport-workers-case-study-national-transport-
workers%E2%80%99-union-phil. Accessed on 25/08/2018.
Spooner, D (2011), Empowering Informal Workers, Securing Informal Livelihoods. Women in Informal Employment: Globalizing and Organizing
(WIEGO). Available on http://www.wiego.org/informal-economy/occupational-groups/transport-workers. Accessed on 25/08/2018

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Sustainable development
Rezaei, N.
Hedayet, Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi, Iran
Abstract—Developed countries may be developed, but that doesn’t necessarily imply that they are sustainable, and for these
countries, the main goal is to rid their society of issues such as social inequalities, waste management, and environmental
responsibility. On the other hand, planning for achieving sustainable development needs accurate information to deal with its
challenges. In developing countries, the available data has not been greatly used, and lack of awareness and insufficient
information are the root causes of poor decision‐making. Geographic information systems (GIS) have been widely used for
scientific research and monitoring of natural resources, land‐change patterns, and disaster management, etc. A number of
geoinfomation initiatives have been launched by developing countries in the last two decades, but the application of GIS in
developing countries is still in its infancy and requires more manpower in order to successfully standardize and verify data,
four major issues should be addressed: data availability, data quality, data gaps, and differences in data between national and
international sources, but obtaining mapping data from developing countries has become a challenge. For example, developing
spatial coverage of disaster monitoring and management in developing countries is difficult due to lack of ground‐observation
networks, high expenses, and the difficulty in accessing mountainous areas. Analysis of remote‐sensing data, satellite‐based
observation technology, and expensive high‐resolution geospatial products are not feasible for developing countries; hence,
these countries have to depend on external sources. In order to integrate geospatial information infrastructure and data
collection into an official reporting system, developing countries must invest in small, core, geospatial divisions, ensuring
adequate human capacity, equipment, and software and policy frameworks. In this article, I will explain methods for dealing
with sustainable development’s challenges that are in accordance with principles of sustainable development, and new findings
about results of previous plan of achieving sustainable development in different countries.
Keywords—sustainable development, developed countries, developing countries, challenges
I. INTRODUCTION
I T’S no secret that our planet is under huge pressure and that Environment and Sustainability are important subjects to be
discussed when it comes to ensuring our future life on earth. Sustainable development has been widely promoted as a
holistic concept which aims or targets to integrate social, economic and cultural policies to ensure high-quality growth. And it
is a phrase we hear thrown around from time to time in order to underline our ideal vision of the future – rid of all the problems
that the inhabitants of the Earth tackle today. Nevertheless, a thorough understanding of this field and its challenges is quite
necessary in our current environment and can help in living a more conscious and altruistic life. By doing some simple things
that not everyone pays attention to, we can at least expect our next generations to do them as part of their day to day lives. So
we must know the challenges of sustainable development to deal with, and yield good results, and this will happen if we know
the results of pervious plans of sustainable development in both developed and developing countries in order to plan correctly
for our country.
II. CHALLENGES OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Basically, sustainable development is a long-term solution to how we plan our indefinite progress in the future without
causing damage to the environment so as to guarantee a safe habitat for the next generations, who will continue to develop
their economies, societies, and care for the environment with a similar ideal in mind. It satisfies our needs without sabotaging
the opportunities of others. The concept covers a broad scope of matters such as environmental, social, and economic
development which continues to prove its importance in our lives as it affects all aspects of them.
Owing to our rapidly growing population, in the future more resources will be needed in order to accommodate for it and,
unfortunately, the resources that we take benefit of now are not all renewable. Taking this into consideration, the tech industry
will have to adapt to future conditions as of now the rare metals and minerals used in the industry, such as Palladium – a metal
widely used in the production of consumer electronics, are becoming increasingly scarce. Another factor to take into
consideration is the fact that China currently produces 97% of the world’s rare earth materials and were it to, hypothetically,
place a blockade on its exports, production of technological goods would become incredibly difficult. Seeing as our industries
are investing and relying more and more on technology if rare earth metals were too slowly disappearing, prices would rocket,
and so would inflation rates, making it impossible to function for, at least, a prolonged period of time. For this reason, new
alternatives and innovations in the tech industry are essential to sustainable development in order to secure steady development
in this field without relying on an excessive amount on exhaustible materials.
Another crucial issue are the potential food shortages in the future in the face of our growing population which is estimated
to hit a little under 10 billion by 2050. “A country’s ability to feed itself very much depends on three factors: availability of
arable land, accessible water and population pressures”. The area of arable land currently available is diminishing due to
deforestation which limits the availability of local food for people inhabiting areas near to the forests, especially for the peoples
of Southeast Asia and South America. Due to the soil erosion, which usually occurs following the conversion of forest land
into agricultural land for growing cash crops such as coffee, tobacco or cotton, formerly fertile land is unable to be used for
agricultural purposes and often morphs into desert land as was the case with the Brazilian Cerrado.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
A. Frame pool
Something else which is a looming change we will have to make in the future is the manner in which livestock is raised
and the frequency with which it is being consumed. Currently, livestock accounts for around 30% of the world’s surface which
is fit for raising animals and due to the high demand for meat and dairy products, more and more areas are being transformed
into grazing land or simply industrial livestock production. Setting aside the numerous ethical issues associated with the
methods of raising livestock and even the very act of consuming products of an animal origin, the consumption of animal
products at our current level is simply not sustainable owing to the amount of freshwater dedicated to the upkeep of animals,
for example.
As we know, access to water is one of the main contributing factors to feeding a society and the water going towards the
unethical industrial production of livestock would help cultivate could be going towards raising crop plants, which require less
water to produce, less land and which have the potential to feed a much larger amount of people. It’s very important to take
this into consideration in the context of the crisis of overpopulation and sufficient nutrition, however, the keeping of livestock
poses many other challenges to sustainability. The pollution of bodies of water with agricultural waste, the amount of fuel used
in the transport of animal products and the livestock itself (high carbon emissions), Emissions of methane and other greenhouse
gases by livestock which contributes to global warming Diseases associated with an excessive consumption of animal products,
such as diabetes.
Natural occurrences, such as earthquakes and tsunamis, can pose a threat to sustainability as they can shift the flow of
water and destroy certain elements of infrastructure. (In the village of Ramche in Nepal, the only source of water was shaken
off course by the earthquake of 2015 and as a result of the difficulty of access to the village, it has been undergoing a water
crisis. Expenditure on bottled water in the village has in turn grown and in many other areas in Nepal undergoing a water crisis,
people resort to drinking and cooking with E-Coli infected water as an act of desperation. Meanwhile tsunamis in Southeast
and East Asia may pose a threat to the already existing sustainable infrastructure, such as the destruction of means of public
transport in Japan.)
III. RESULTED SOLUTIONS FOR CHALLENGES OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

One way is to build engagement in fragile states around long-term strategies that integrate humanitarian and development
approaches. The decades-old division of humanitarian response and development assistance is inefficient and outdated.
Development progress in fragile states is not linear: it will be chronically interrupted by crises, often resulting in backsliding.
Rather than organizing international efforts around the artificial sequencing of humanitarian and development programs, we
need to be more strategic, investing in multi-year strategies that transcend the humanitarian and development divide. The goal
of these efforts, ultimately, is to improve the resilience of communities to anticipated crises. For example, in the drought-prone
Karamoja region of northern Uganda, weaning communities off food aid and improving agricultural and livestock productivity
must be paired with efforts to make them less susceptible to the next drought. Improving the accuracy and transparency of
early warning systems is one response. Upgrading infrastructure so that supplies can move more quickly between isolated
communities is another. And where incomes are growing, encouraging savings so that locals can better absorb a shock will be
vital to ensuring they survive a crisis and recover quickly after it has passed.
Another way is to shift away from a centralized approach to engaging and empowering local systems. The humanitarian
system must decentralize, become more flexible and less UN-centric. We must leverage the resources and expertise of local
communities, businesses and regional governments, who precede international aid organizations and will be there long after
we have gone. Take the case of Lebanon, which is shouldering a refugee crisis of vast scale. Approximately 1.5 million Syrian
refugees have crowded in, now accounting for approximately 30% of its total population. Refugees are placing immense
pressures on social services and schools, and tensions between host communities and refugees are on the rise. Because political
gridlock hampers the ability of the national government to respond, Lebanese municipalities have borne the brunt. These
municipalities are on the frontline of the refugee crisis; they must be supported. Rather than establish humanitarian structures
that parallel and exclude local governments, the international community must be more agile, identifying where the needs and
capacities are, and strategically developing the partnerships that can be most effective.
In addition to shifting away from a centralized approach to engaging and empowering local systems, integrate peace-
building programs and conflict reduction in development can also be a solution. Aid is no substitute for the political resolution
of conflicts, but it can be an important tool. In conflict-affected states, mitigating conflict and building peace between groups
is vital to achieving development outcomes and addressing root causes of instability. In the Democratic Republic of Congo,
for instance, chronic inter-communal violence has been a nightmarish driver of misery and underdevelopment: since 1994,
ongoing conflict has killed 5.4 million people and displaced 2.6 million more. And yet there has been little funding to address
inter-communal violence and land conflicts. Until these challenges are placed front and center, the plight of DRC will likely
drag on, causing more misery and depressing good outcomes for the country and its people.
Although we must consider leverage financial service innovations. One billion people living in extreme poverty lack
access to proper financial services and 2 billion people are unbanked. By improving access to financial products – including
payments, savings and credit – we can promote inclusive growth and mitigate risk. Loan-guarantee programs in northern
Uganda are encouraging banks, for the first time, to enter rural areas and begin extending credit. In Kenya and Haiti, micro-
insurance initiatives are reducing vulnerability, providing an important buffer for when the next crisis arrives. Enhancing
financial services and investing in digital infrastructure are examples of development investments that can also facilitate

polocentre.org
icshge.org
emergency response.
Furthermore, countries should move beyond the UN architecture. We must acknowledge the limits of the United Nations
in fragile states. The international system, centered on the UN, is inherently risk-averse and too often geopolitically
constrained. At the start of the Syria conflict, the Syrian state withheld access to suffering populations in the north, and was
politically shielded by veto-wielding members of the UN Security Council. The UN was shunted to the sidelines as a grave
humanitarian crisis unfolded. NGOs responded independently, delivering aid to northern Syria from across national borders,
placing humanity over sovereignty. Millions of Syrians received lifesaving aid. It took two years for the UN to pass Resolution
2165, finally mandating cross-border aid. For many, it would have been too late. The humanitarian system need not provide a
one-size-fits-all approach. Large-scale action is possible even in the absence of a UN mandate.
Consequently, the focus on reforming the formal, UN aid system should be redirected towards rethinking, reconfiguring
and expanding the role of other actors, especially international and local NGOs. This will be necessary to alleviate suffering,
advance human development, mitigate conflict and, ultimately, meet the development challenges of the 21st century.
All the goals for achieving sustainable development interact with others: clean water and adequate housing are linked to
health, for example. Researchers and policymakers all need to work across sectors. So, for example, health scientists need to
work with scientists in other areas, as well as with non-health policymakers. And health policymakers working in cities need
to work with researchers and other policymakers in housing, transport, food and trade. Getting there will be hard because there
are many barriers, such as non-inter-operable data systems, to sharing knowledge between sectors in the academic, civil society
and policymaking spheres.
In the health sector there are signs that cross-pollination is starting to happen. A good example is the non-communicable
disease toolkit which was developed by the UN Interagency Task Force for different policy sectors. The toolkit advises specific
government ministries on how to tackle non-communicable diseases in their fields. It gives non-health sectors information that
helps them understand the health implications of their actions. It also suggests strategies that could contribute to improving the
health of populations. Labor ministers, for example, are advised that non-communicable diseases reduce the labor force,
productivity and economic growth. They can see how preventing no communicable diseases makes economic sense.
Scientists should strive to conduct research that has an impact beyond the lab and can be useful to policymakers. They
need to understand that gathering evidence can take time and won’t always match the pace of their plans. Unless these trade-
offs are acknowledged there won’t be any meaningful engagement between the two sides. And that will mean that the potential
for science and evidence to inform policy will be lost.
This approach is being taught in initiatives like the Global Young Academy, which aims to change the norms and
expectations of scientists by steering training towards examining everyday issues, and by building capacity for engaging with
policymakers. Initiatives like this are vital to ensure future scientists have the skills to engage beyond the lab. They also prepare
science and policymakers to interact with each other. For example, large family sizes and rapid population growth can
negatively affect both the availability—in terms of absolute supply—and the quality of safe drinking water. Research has
shown that family sizes tend to decline when couples who want fewer children have access to voluntary, affordable, and
effective family planning methods. By averting unintended pregnancies, the use of family planning can prevent crowded
conditions that can strain water supplies and compromise water quality, such as by increasing microbial pollution from fecal
contamination. Giving families the tools to choose how many children to have, and when to have them, frees up household
resources, enabling parents to invest in and repair household water systems or pay for routine services.
Moreover, rapid population growth may amplify urban challenges by straining municipal government systems, including
the ability of city authorities to provide adequate housing and infrastructure for all residents. The limited quantity of adequate
accommodations factors may push individuals to live in slum or squatter settlements. Achieving desired family sizes through
contraception can help decrease stress on urban housing systems. Just as with water supply, freeing up household resources
through smaller family sizes increases parents’ ability to secure improved housing.
Also, since 1990, the number of people in the world who are extremely poor has halved. In 2012, however, there were
still about 767 million people living under $1.90 a day (World Bank). About three-quarters of the extreme poor live in rural
areas, with most dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods and food security. But inclusive agriculture, food production
and off-farm economies can create jobs and eliminate hunger in rural areas, giving people a chance to feed their families and
live a decent life.
In the whole process, it is important to understand, that economic growth is not synonymous with economic development.
What this actually means, is that economic development is the advancement of economic wealth of a country, aimed at the
overall welfare of the citizens. The growth in economic prosperity in developing countries has led to massive increase in
volumes of waste. Excessive use of resources such as plastic and abandonment of outdated electronic equipment have strained
waste management systems. Landfills and illegal dumping have resulted in ecological hazards, along with severe economic
losses in tourism, fisheries, and healthcare. In recent years, municipalities in developing countries have struggled to manage
the surge in volume of waste produced by their overcrowded cities.
Loan-guarantee programs in northern Uganda are encouraging banks, for the first time, to enter rural areas and begin
extending credit. In Kenya and Haiti, micro-insurance initiatives are reducing vulnerability, providing an important buffer for
when the next crisis arrives. Enhancing financial services and investing in digital infrastructure are examples of development
investments that can also facilitate emergency response.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
IV. PRACTICAL SOLUTIONS FOR BOTH DEVELOPING AND DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

The introduction of GIS technology is encouraging, as it will help decision makers to analyze and integrate spatial data
for effective planning and good decision‐making. GIS has been widely used for scientific research and monitoring of natural
resources, land‐change patterns, and disaster management, etc. A number of geoinfomation initiatives have been launched by
developing countries in the last two decades, but the application of GIS in developing countries is still in its infancy and
requires more manpower. Government investments are needed for tracking changes on a large scale, such as land use and land
cover change, climate change and impacts, and natural resources management. Therefore, the availability of technology and
the development of infrastructure is considered one of the essential building blocks for the successful implementation of the
SDGs. In order to successfully standardize and verify data, four major issues should be addressed: data availability, data
quality, data gaps, and differences in data between national and international sources. As the MDG process showed, a few
countries stayed on track for reporting the standard data. By contrast, alarming issues, such as poor reporting, differences
between country standards and methods, and variations in metadata, hampered many developing countries. For example, 71
countries are identified as possessing insufficient data or no data for measuring their progress toward eradicating hunger, as
proposed by MDG (UN Millennium Project 2005).
To avoid a lack of standards, measures should be taken by individual nations to improve the national coordination among
authorities monitoring the data and reporting to the international community. To overcome this issue, the capacities of nations
to collect and report national statistics should be strengthened and should comply with international standards. National
Statistical Offices (NSOs) and regional and global statistical bodies can form a working group to give an in‐depth review of
data availability, data gaps, and discrepancies in the data at the national level, followed by regional level. Standardization of
terminology and estimation methods are important and should adhere to international‐level standards so that comparison with
other counties will become easy.
A common platform for data gathering should be established. Sharing data through an open‐source system is a user‐
friendly method to encourage transparency in data reporting. For that purpose, initiatives should be established to support data
gatherers by using a multilingual system. Opportunities should be given to student communities to do data gathering in support
of SDGs. Orientation and training programs would need to be organized to teach the students to work together for successful
survey analysis, regular updating, and monitoring. Lack of coordination between different data sources, the international
organization, and NSOs results in inconsistency and a lack of standards in data quality. Identification of potential sources for
data is of primary importance. For example, data producers may be different for different ministries in developing countries.
Care needs to be taken to identify potential sources for collecting data so that the data provided to NSOs and international
agencies do not have differences and contradictory information.
Decreasing international funding for data collection, especially population census and major surveys, in developing
countries remains a major challenge. Governments and corporations need to commit to long‐term funding for updating surveys,
census taking, drafting questionnaires, computerization, analysis of results, and making available results to ease decision
making. Government and NGO reports should be reviewed by a proposed body, which would identify gaps and issues to be
rectified in order to eliminate inequities in the data. Providing more transparency, along with consultations by international
organizations, will help developing nations measure the indicators. Adequate financial aid and support mechanisms should be
provided by developed countries to help the developing and underdeveloped countries meet the SDG targets.
V. RESULTS OF PLANNING FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN SCOTLAND

A. Sustainable Cities and Communities
Keep Scotland Beautiful is a Scottish Charitable Incorporated Organization (SCIO) which supports the private and public
sectors, communities and individuals across Scotland to help create and maintain cleaner, safer and more sustainable local
environments. Their activities range from projects encouraging biodiversity, to promoting sustainable food growing to helping
communities reduce carbon emissions and improve local environmental quality. For example, during 2015/16 they supported
and recognized 148 community groups through our It’s Your Neighborhood campaign as they worked to improve and enhance
their local environments. They also audited more than 120 beaches and parks and awarded them for their excellent
environmental management. And, they supported a number of housing associations to identify issues on their sites and provide
information to support them to take action with their tenants.
B. Responsible Consumption and Production
Across Scotland’s Sustainable Development Education and Sustainability and Climate Change themes, they undertake a
range of activities to actively promote a reduction in consumption; encouraging the reuse of items, extending the life of
everyday items through repair and maintenance support and encouraging the recycling of materials. For example, in 2016, in
partnership with the University of Glasgow, they were partner for the development education and awareness raising food waste
project “Don’t Waste Our Future”. This project involved approximately 80 primary and secondary schools, 2800 students, 160
teachers and 40 municipalities across seven European countries. Through their work supporting communities in receipt of a
Climate Challenge Fund grant they have helped them to take action on climate change by recycling 27,000 tons of waste.
C. Climate Action
Keep Scotland Beautiful (SCIO) works with organizations and communities to help people to reduce their carbon
emissions, to improve local areas, and to adapt to the impacts of climate change. For example, for more than a decade they

polocentre.org
icshge.org
have managed and developed the Sustainable Scotland Network (SSN) to improve Scotland’s public sector performance on
sustainability and climate change. They also support 350 public sector organizations to take action on sustainable development
and 150 of these to submit reports on their compliance with the climate change duties outlined in the Climate Change (Scotland)
Act 2009.
Moreover, Scotland itself has a number of targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions contained in legislation, within
the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009. The Act creates a statutory framework for greenhouse gas emissions reductions in
Scotland by setting an interim target of at least a 42% reduction for 2020, and at least an 80% reduction target for 2050. These
reductions are based on a 1990 baseline (1995 for the F-Gases). By reducing our emissions Scotland is making a valuable
contribution to addressing climate change (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Baseline period. * Note: The baseline uses 1990 for carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide and 1995 for F gases (hydro fluorocarbons, per
fluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride and nitrogen trifluoride).
D. Criteria for recent changes

This evaluation is based on a comparison of the percentage reductions in emissions achieved from the Baseline with the
percentage reductions in emissions required in that year, on a trajectory to meet the 42% reduction target in 2020 and the 80%
reduction target in 2050.
If the percentage reduction exceeds the reductions required for that year on the trajectory, it suggests that performance is
improving. If the percentage reductions are less than the emissions reductions required for that year on the trajectory, this
suggests that performance is worsening. If the percentage for that year remains below the trajectory, however emissions are
increasing, it suggests that performance is maintaining.
VI. RESULTS OF PLANNING FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN NEPAL

As a result of its unique geographical location and geopolitical situation, Nepal, as a developing country, has faced many
environmental, social, and economic issues, such as the extreme levels of pollution in bodies of water as was in the case of the
Baghmati River which, fortunately, after state and volunteer-run efforts is now cleaner than it has been in a long
time. Unfortunately, that fate has not met many of the 600 rivers flowing through the Kathmandu valley, where the population
of the country is the densest, and they remain polluted by industrial waste from nearby factories. Owing to funding from the
international governments, Nepal has recently undergone a period of accelerated development and an introduction to a
consumerist culture which in conjunction with the lack of awareness regarding environmental issues has led to an inefficient
use of freshwater that is oh so abundant in Nepal.
A. Waste management
Having had grown up in Nepal the one thing that has a prominent place in the list is the rubbish – it is everywhere. Streets,
rivers, fields, being eaten in the middle of the road by a hungry goat or sacred cow. Due to a lack of common knowledge on
the recycling of rubbish, the same system of dealing with waste produced by the inhabitants of Kathmandu (especially) has
been employed – dumping it all in landfills and hoping for the best without investing in appropriate infrastructure to reduce

polocentre.org
icshge.org
the rubbish in the Kathmandu waste sites. At this point in time, it involves reducing Kathmandu itself, in a certain sense, as
rubbish is a constant fixture in its landscape. In spite of pilot projects being run in order to test out methods of reducing the
waste levels, such as the building of fecal sludge treatment plants and infrastructure allowing biogas generation, due to the
visible incompetence of the government and municipalities these projects have been left abandoned.
In spite of the very difficult circumstances in which many developing countries currently find themselves in, sustainable
development is achievable, however, it would require a lot of concentrated and coordinated effort. If appropriate supply-side
policies, such as education and vocational programs, were to be implemented, illiteracy rates would drop and people would be
made more aware about the environment surrounding them which would contribute greatly to a rise in environmental
awareness. In addition, an appropriate government, which prioritized the growth of green GDP instead of GDP measured by
the usual methods, would have to come into power and use its budget efficiently in order to invest in green energies, health
services, and benefits systems, amongst others. Of course, this is only touching the tip of the iceberg, nevertheless, it illustrates
very well that sustainable development is achievable and straightforward, however, each of the steps underlined above are
incredibly hard to achieve. Concluding, sustainable development is achievable, however, it is only achievable is everyone is
dedicated to achieving it. In order for this to happen, the world needs a wakeup call of cosmic dimensions – the only worry is
it might be too late by then.
VII. CONCLUSION
In achieving sustainable development, pieces of puzzle should be solved. Progress in sustainability will require fostering
problem-driven, interdisciplinary research, building capacity for research, creating coherent system of research planning,
operational monitoring, assessment, application, and providing reliable long term financial support. The need to generate
adequate scientific capacity and institutional support in developing countries is particularly urgent as they are most vulnerable
to multiple stresses that arise from rapid, simultaneous changes in social and environmental systems. So by taking these points
into account to achieve sustainable development, we can expect brighter future for our next generations if we act like our talk
based on in-depth knowledge.
REFERENCES
(online only)
archive.nepalitimes.com
www.iynf.org
www.gov.scot
www.weforum.org

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Modern practices of human body design: Pilot study – regional aspect

Merenkov, A., Antonova, N.,* and Purgina, E.
Ural Federal University, Ekaterinburg, 620083, Russia; * n-tata@mail.ru
Abstract—The article deals with modern practices aimed at changing the human body. Today we can talk about the individual
freedom of body design, which is understood as the actions of individuals and groups, aimed at transforming their corporeity,
given by nature. Everyone can modify his/her body using modern techniques and technologies, change his/her sex and expand
his/her sensuousness through mechanical and electronic gadgets. The person’s orientation to the body modification becomes
the basis for the formation of new inequality, which, in fact, divides people into those who are included in the new civilization
standard, and those who become hostages of their bodies. The active development of the beauty industry and the emergence
of new professional groups testify to be in demand with the population practices of human body modification. However, their
accessibility and quality become barriers that reinforce inequality in society. Despite the considerable researches on society
inequality, there remains a lack of understanding as to how society inequality is connected with human body designing. Our
study seeks to fill this gap. The major research objectives were to explore: different types of youth practices on body design
and their access to them. Methodology and Methods: The object of our research is various representatives of professional
groups whose activities are aimed at the transformation of the human body. The primary data was collected using a
questionnaire. We developed the author's questionnaire consisting of 7 open questions. 32 respondents - fitness trainers (n-
=7), surgeons (n = 4), dieticians (n = 6), psychologists/psychotherapists (n = 6), fashion designers/stylists/hairdressers (n = 6)
and tattooists (n= 3) were questioned in the city of Yekaterinburg. The survey data were processed using the methodology of
the thematic network method. Results and discussion: Our research has shown that almost all the individuals turn to the experts
whose activities are focused on the human body design. First of all, they tend to bring their corporeity up to code and certain
norms reflecting the current socio-cultural daily life of modern society. At the same time, experts say that they seek in their
work of reproduction such modifications of corporeity, which are reversible. Our research has revealed that the majority of the
respondents, turning to the experts are representatives of the youth community, for whom the modification of the body is the
desire for self-realization and self-affirmation. Experts also note that some part of the youth turn to them again for the
modification of their corporeity. Carrying out one manipulation with their bodies and satisfaction with the results leads to the
fact that individuals begin to transform other parts of their bodies. Conclusion: Our research has elucidated that modern
practices of body design become a product of homogenization and cultural integration, which includes representatives of
different countries, communities and states. It should be noted that we observe the processes of daily living standardization in
different cultures and societies through the practice of human body design, as well as the inequality in access to these practices
for different social strata and groups.
Keywords—human body, corporeity, body design, practices of body design
I. INTRODUCTION
I N modern conditions we observe the active development of technologies not only for the transformation of inanimate nature,
but also for new ways of changing living organisms, including human beings. Scientists are searching for regulation of the
human body's gene structures work, and the human body becomes the subject of active influence of the latest scientific
developments that have been created by biologists, chemists, physicists and geneticists in recent years [Aalten, 1997; Kim,
Rhamat-Samii, 2004]. They primarily attempt to solve problems caused by an individual’s dissatisfaction with the work of the
innards that determine the state of his or her health and life expectancy [Crossley, 2005].
Meanwhile, a person strives to be not only healthy, but also to be an eyecatcher. Over the past decades the practice of
forming a human body corresponding to certain social standards has become widespread [Turney, 2008]. Hence, it is important
to consider two key research issues. The first issue is the determination of the reasons that induce people of varies age, sex,
material status and social position to be included in the activity for the creation of a much-needed body. The second issue is
the study of typical practices that are used by representatives of various social groups to construct the desired externals
[Shilling, 2008].
On the one hand, studying these issues requires addressing the actions aimed at forming a much-needed body that have
been used for thousands of years ago and have proved its effectiveness. On the other hand, today new ways of influencing the
person’s externals are highlighted with the aim of solving specific issues of a person’s self-realization and self-affirmation in
a particular social group. In the past the practice of influencing the body differentiated depending on the individuals’ social
set-up and gender. In men they were associated with regular participation in hostilities. The weapons at that time required a
vigorous body with a developed lean body mass, which made it possible to skillfully use the sword, shield, spear and also had
heavy armor. To design the body boys needed constant training since his early childhood. The important task for each state
was to prepare a large group of men who, after attaining physical maturity, had the bodies ready for the successful conduct of
wars.
Women created their practice of much-needed body design for solving another issue, determined by the need to be
attractive to men who choose them as their future spouse. Their image was created with the help of cosmetics, hairstyles,
special clothes and ornaments that caused increased attention from the representatives of the "stronger sex". [Witz, 2000]. At
the same time in all social groups, irrespective of the financial situation, they used these methods to create an attractive image
of a woman when it was necessary to marry her. Muslim women who are strict religious laws prohibited publicly show her

polocentre.org
icshge.org
face, hair, hands and figure are an exception.

We see a qualitative difference in the practices of a much-needed body design for satisfying needs that are different in
content. The warrior’s technical training was carried out by direct influence on his muscles of the arms and legs. At the same
time the physical characteristics of the body changed as a result of persistent work of the person over his body. Women, making
themselves attractive by means of ornaments, beautiful dress and cosmetics did not affect their body. The body did not change,
and some of its inaesthetisms were hidden with the help of skillfully sewn clothing.
Modern life, firstly, preserved and ensured the further development of those practices of the body design, which was in
demand for solving various social problems that were developed in the past in different cultures of the world. Secondly, social
equality is achieved by gender with the help of both previous and new ways of much-needed body design. Thirdly, qualitatively
new methods of the body design appeared. A large mass of individuals is actively included in the activities for its design. In
modern cities there are a lot of fitness centers, giving men and women of any age the opportunity to form a muscular body
relief and to make a slender figure, strengthening overall physical health. Those people who wish to maintain their fitness
while using the practices of spiritual work on themselves, are engaged in the fashionable yoga sections, Wushu and other body
systems of healing.
Medical advances have led to the fact that medical centers have been opened in major cities for the last 10-15 years,
offering modern cosmetics for correction of facial skin and other parts of the body. Those who want to achieve radical changes
in their appearance are offered plastic surgery, allowing for 10-15 years to "rejuvenate" the face of a person [Young, 2005].
The body becomes for the first time in human history the subject of constant change.
German sociologist H. Joas, argues that the body is perceived not only as its physical parameters, but also as the degree
of its conformity to the requirements of culture, adopted in the process of the individual’s socialization [Joas, 1996]. A huge
industry of human corporeality transformation has been created, which includes special professional groups (cosmetologists,
surgeons, etc.), as well as manufacturers of certain products (medicines, sports simulators, etc.). Discussions revolve around
body design relate to such procedures and practices as genetic engineering [De Grazia, 2012], pharmacology [Evans-Brown
et al., 2012] and technical interfaces [Warwick, 2014]. There arises the need to exercise control over the desired body design
by the individuals [Siep, 2003]. Meanwhile, at present this process is the most often spontaneous that often leads to negative
consequences not only for health but also for people's lives [Duarte, Park, 2014]. In this regard, an important task is the
sociological study of body design practices used by representatives of different social groups, consisting in the construction of
their exteriority, proceeding from a certain socio-cultural patterns.
II. METHODOLOGY AND METHODS

In examining body design practices, we use the following methodological approaches. First of all, we use biological
theories that reveal the nature of the human body. As R. Dawkins points out in his work "The selfish gene", it is created as in
all animals to ensure sustainable propagation. There is an "egoistic gene" that moves from one body to another, leaving it
before it dies [Dawkins, 1989]. All the internal and external characteristics of the human body, given to the overwhelming
majority of people, fully ensure the solution of these problems. In this sense, nature does not require any correction from
outside, if continuation of the genus is provided. This position was established by a culture in which there is a lack of criteria
for singling out individuals who are not entitled to ensure their propagation due to individual body deformity. Virtually all
women and men, regardless of the extent to which the images of "ideally beautiful" people are dominant in society, find those
for whom they will become loved and create a family. In this sense, it is justified to take a given body from birth, without
trying to improve it specifically.
At the same time, in the process of historical development culture formulated important requirements for the activities of
people to preserve the body, which can not only realize the basic function that ensures the preservation of the human race, but
also successfully carry out diverse functions related to individuals’ labor, family and social activity in society. Even in antiquity
a culture of caring for oneself was formed, the analysis of which is presented in the work of M. Foucault "Caring for yourself."
[Foucault, 1986]. The norms of this culture, firstly, were aimed at ensuring the normal functioning of the innards by regulating
nutrition, observing the regime of work and rest and abandoning harmful habits. Secondly, these norms asserted the need for
constant mental activity of a person, the content and direction of which largely depends not only on his/her mental, but also
on his/her physical health. A special type of work is appeared, the specific and particular features of which involves the fact
that the person simultaneously acts as a subject and an object of meaningful transformation. Both the external characteristics
of the organism and its mental states are the object of self-realized change on the basis of the certain external appearance norms
and behavior adopted by the individual.
Culture creates (on the example of individuals that have become known due to significant achievements in their body
design) an assortment of samples to be taken by the mass of people to produce the desired positive results of their body design
which are important for both society and the individual. In this case, there is a differentiation between individuals and
communities, depending on the complex terms that are required for practices aimed at body design. First of all, there are
psychological differences in the degree of acceptance of satisfaction with his/her body, as well as the presence of strong-willed
qualities necessary for work on its transformation. Both of these factors depend on the individual’s characteristics and it is
very difficult to change them.
Sociocultural factors that create barriers to access to practices of forming corporality in the past and in our time are
different individuals’ financial capacity as well as their level of education, professional status, social status and place of abode.
In a large city, there are far more opportunities for the body design with the help of fitness trainers, yoga specialists, fashion

polocentre.org
icshge.org
designers, cosmetologists, and plastic surgeons, etc. The financial position of a person determines the possibility of using the
services of doctors who are able to make a person's appearance 10-15 years younger than his/her biological age. At the same
time, the majority of the much-needed body designing methods, used in fitness centers, in groups engaged in yoga and
bodybuilding are presented on the Internet for free. To achieve these goals only will and perseverance are needed.
The object of our research is various representatives of professional groups whose activities are aimed at the
transformation of the human body. The primary data was collected using a questionnaire. We developed the author's
questionnaire consisting of 7 open questions. 32 respondents - fitness trainers (n-=7), surgeons (n = 4), dieticians (n = 6),
psychologists/psychotherapists (n = 6), fashion designers/stylists/hairdressers (n = 6) and tattooists (n= 3) were questioned in
the city of Yekaterinburg. The survey data were processed using the methodology of the thematic network method (Attride-
Stirling, 2001).

Individual’s activity dealing with the body design is determined by the degree of his/her interest. It is formed under the
influence of common opinion that exists in the reference social groups. Accepting them from early childhood, an individual
cannot always accurately indicate, under the influence of which subject (relatives, acquaintances, educators, medical workers
and designers) or institute (mass media) they formed. The research has revealed two positions on the question of who is the
customer of a much-needed body. The first is that all people primarily seek to maintain a healthy body that allows them to
engage in any work. A person like all animals refers to his/her body as an instrument, which must clearly without any deviations
perform what is required of him/her in a concrete life situation. Awareness of its possibilities occurs when the body refuses to
come to the subject’s bow, who considers himself/herself to be” his/her master”. “What kind of body is in demand? Of course,
you need a healthy body. Meanwhile, now a lot of children are sick when they go to day care. Parents do not understand this
fact. Do not heal in time ... There are also those parents who acquaint their children with physical training since their childhood.
They put them to sports sections in 5-6 years. Here they take care of children's health "(physician-therapist). “I work with
people who come with complaints about their health. It depends on the state of the digestive tract. But a person believes that
the body must withstand all that he/she eats and drinks. The body seems to be” iron” and everything can be “recycled”. People
do not know their body and do not care about it. When I tell them that they should follow a diet and eat well, they agree with
me, but as soon as they feel better after the drug administration, they will return to what reduces their life” (gastroenterologist).
It should be noted that initial position of all practices is related to the impact on the body. As Shilling writes, regardless
of the degree of satisfaction with his/her appearance, every person, starting from early childhood, first of all, should master the
culture of preserving and strengthening his/her psychophysical state [Shilling, 2008]. Since antiquity it has been understood
by mankind and it has been reflected in the practices of various restrictions on food intake, fixed in world religions and doctors
prescriptions on day regimen. The achievements of modern science, especially genetics, have shown that many nutritional
disorders are caused by the work of certain genes, which significantly complicates the ability of a person who has, for example,
a tendency to corpulence, to use recommended diets. The individual needs to find the strength for daily struggle with his/her
nature, focusing on a cultural pattern. The influence of natural programs is often such that it is possible to achieve the desired
result only for a while. "People who have already used different diets often come to me. They got the results they needed, and
then they returned to their former weight. What will you offer them? Address to surgeons. They will get rid of fatty deposits
and reduce the stomach. There is a lack of other options "(dietician). Perhaps in the future, drugs will be created that will affect
the work of genes that determine the tendency to corpulence and addictive behavior (smoking, alcohol, drugs), which cause
great harm to human health.
Our research has fixed that the second position about the much-needed body is that it must correspond to the external
characteristics of the patterns given by the reference groups. At present the following idea has been established: a person
should have not only a healthy body, but a person should also have an attractive body. “Nowadays there is a cult of a beautiful
body in the society. The advantage is given to a muscular body, created by sports activities" (a dietitian). "There is a requisition
for such a body in both men and women" (fitness coach). It should be noted that institutions of health care, education and mass
media, including the Internet, set the parameters of the much-needed body. "It, first all, should correspond to the average
norms. That is, there should not be protruding parts of the body, such as the stomach; there should not be too much fat mass.
Secondly, there should be a very even, beautiful skin. Thirdly, the muscle mass is noticeable under the clothes, that is, the
forms must be natural and beautiful. Fourthly, there should be a definite plastic. And this trend can be traced, practically, in
all age groups, from the age of 15 to the 60th, sometimes higher" (plastic surgeon).
In our opinion, the standard of a slim and thin body is largely determined not only by the fact that the obeseness often
leads to the appearance of various diseases. Modern life is characterized by high variability in all spheres of everyday human
activity. To match the high rate of social transformation, you need to be physically mobile. To match the high rate of social
transformation, you need to be physically mobile. Therefore, the body is in demand, which already by its appearance
demonstrates the availability of its owner's willingness to switch over to new types of employment. At the same time, "the
specifics that were previously adopted - 90/60/90 - they are already in the remote past. Now, in principle, the female body
should be slender, but not raw-boned "(dietician doctor).
However, not all the respondents agree that there is a fashion for such a body. "The modelling business was instructed to
attract curvy women as models ... Fashion for a certain body comes and goes. At present, to my mind, there is a lack of fashion
for the body ... Curvy women remained in the times of Rubens, and the anorexics also leave somewhere " (psychologist).
Indeed, tolerance requires acceptance any bodily constitution, regardless of his/her nationality, faith, education and behavioral

polocentre.org
icshge.org
features. There should be no discrimination in the workplace and in public life because of different appearances between
people.
At the same time, fashion body demonstrated by famous actors and sportsmen, putting their photos on social networks,
affects a certain part of not only young people but also middle-aged people. Thus,” an image of an "insta-diva" is created with
glued eyelashes, long nails, straightened hair and botox, etc. People have the opportunity to adhere to this ideal image " (make-
up artist). Our respondents note that each person chooses a certain image of the body, which he/she attempts to create using
the means available to him/her.
In this connection, there arises a question whether personal representations about his/her appearance depend on the
opinion of the reference group. If the appearance with specific parameters is formed purposefully, then there must be its
customers. The respondents indicated the main subjects interested in body design. "The main subject is the person
himself/herself, especially women, her desire to be sexually attractive. For example, during the beach season you need to be
beautiful and to be looked at ... Not only men, but also women" (psychologist). Women at all times paid more attention to their
appearance because they, regardless of age, are constantly estimated by friends, co-workers and passers-by. There is strongly
held views that it is needed to look nice and attractive anywhere and at any time. Therefore, the entire beauty industry was
formed and developed to meet the women’s needs to be beautiful. “Women are the main customers of fashion clothing,
cosmetics, various diets, classes in fitness clubs and plastic surgery. "I do have a feeling that all the women who are engaged
in the gymnasiums are narcissists. That is, those who like to admire themselves, their bodies, and who like to receive
compliments and enthusiastic views "(fitness coach).
"There are women who believe that appearance determines person’s status in society. It's like "thoroughbred". If the nose
is small, then you are considered "thoroughbred" and beautiful. Hence, in society you can take different positions. But often
it's fashion, it's not the opinion of the people themselves who want to do it themselves, it is just a trend. ... There were
fashionable "Jolie's lips" and all began to make these "Jolie's lips." In fact, often people do not understand that their
individuality is lost "(plastic surgeon). The point is that the people’s orientation to patterns of attractiveness that are imposed
by the mass media and public opinion leads to the fact that a person often has an inferiority complex that encourages using
any means of approaching a certain pattern. "In addition, I use tattoos as a means of combating complexes. They can be used
for this, because they affect self-confidence "(a tattoo specialist). Tattoos in modern societies have become a tool for self-
identification, they are no longer a cultural taboo that was associated with prisoners, soldiers and bandits, etc. [Roggenkamp,
Nicholls, Pierre, 2017].
Confidence is needed for women as well as for men. Their desire to look attractive is also determined by the dependence
on the opinions of the surrounding persons. "Men have come to us to paint hair. There are, for example, male toning for gray
hair: five minutes in a sink - and all, please, ready. At first, men aggressively perceived the proposal for toning. And now they
try and come again. And it's not only 40-year-olds, young people today also grow gray early and come to tint ... 10-15 years
ago for a man, hair coloring was categorically unacceptable. Today it is the norm "(hairdresser-stylist).
Our survey has fixed that men of different ages and social status order a much-needed body. “Elderly men often make
procedures with their face and figure, when they have a young love-mate, why not. Or, when they are directors of large
companies, and they do not want their employees to see how they grow old. Or they are pop stars, who just want to stand out
among the crowd, "gray". They believe that with white teeth and a smooth forehead they can somehow stand out and have
some kind of individuality "(plastic surgeon).
Perception of oneself depending on the estimation of others is already occurring in adolescence. "The schoolchildren are
strongly influenced by their peers. They just tease the full-figured and poison them "(pediatrician). Some young people try to
lose weight through smoking, others use such diets that can cause anorexia. Actual problems are the training of a person,
firstly, to love his/her body that nature produced; and secondly, to use methods of concealing certain physical defects
(cosmetics, clothing, etc.). A particular role belongs to sports and activities in fitness centers, which allow not only "to put
your body in order" but to regulate bodily identity [Johansson, Tienari, Valtonen, 2017].
The emergence of stable beliefs that the appearance of each person is constantly estimated by other people leads to the
emergence of their own need to please themselves. "I think that it is probably love for yourself, first of all, for your body. Then
it is the opinion of the others. And, probably, the elder you become, the more you understand that if you bear age well then
you will be more in demand, both in the family and in society "(fitness coach). "Some clients come to me and say that they
want to dye their hair, because they want to change themselves somehow and to make new their appearances. When a woman
likes herself, she feels more confident and behaves more freely too "(hairdresser-stylist).
Consequently, there is a definite sequence of forming representations about the much-needed body, on the basis of which
a system of practices appears to change it. The prevailing examples of attractive people in the society influence this process.
These people are the most celebrities, often appearing on TV, in fashion magazines and on social network. Person’s need to
be accepted by other people with the help of an attractive image, given to him/her by nature, forms an orientation to actions
that make it possible to create the necessary appearance. The search for information on the most effective methods of achieving
the sociability claimed by society begins. Based on the presence of organizations that are engaged in the creation of a beautiful
body and the financial means necessary to solve this problem, a person has an attitude to use specific methods of body design.
The study has revealed the factors that determine the value and the possibility of using such practices for the formation
of a much-needed body, such as classes in fitness clubs, yoga centers, the purchase of fashionable clothes and appeals to
dietitians, tattoo specialists, stylists, cosmetologists, plastic surgeons.
"As for yoga, I can say that people of different ages come to us with different requests. I have a group - very young girls,

polocentre.org
icshge.org
they have more requests for stretching, and flexibility, they want to have a tight body. There are women of "Balzac" age, they
already have other tasks: someone has to maintain the figure, someone has more rehabilitation: problems with the back, with
the spine, hernia, problems with the feet, with the shoulder joints - more wellness time. And retirement age people go to classes
to relieve the pain, just improve the quality of life. For them, there is a lack of need to look good, they just want to improve
the quality of life. Men also have different requests: in most cases, this is a tightened body, steel strong muscles, someone has
also the maintenance of one's health, someone has a stretching "(yoga coach).
Yoga and fitness requires a lot of effort, concentration of will and patience. Results do not see immediately. Significantly
faster you can change your appearance, buying fashionable clothes. "Clothes can hide some weaknesses of the body, enhance
the attractiveness. You can emphasize the waist, chest, beautiful legs. And also highlight the beauty of the head with the help
of hats ... Fashionable clothes can attract attention even to a woman who does not have an attractive complexion "(designer
clothes).
Meanwhile, not all people achieve the desired result with the help of these methods. In recent times the value of preserving
the outwardly young body has been asserted. This is due to the fact that nature has awarded the young body with all the
desirable virtues: elastic and smooth skin without wrinkles, high mobility, ability to withstand significant physical and mental
stress and beautiful forms. Therefore, people have always dreamed of aging as long as possible. Achievements of surgery of
the last 15-20 years have allowed us to finally realize the need to restore external parameters of both the young face and other
parts of the body. Surgeons and cosmetologists have learned how to cut it on the order of the consumer. They began to be
addressed not only by those who are 40-50 years old, but also women in 25-30 years, striving to match the fashion to the most
beautiful body.
"In the case of the female body, there is a request for an increase in the buttocks. In general, the trendsetters here are the
stars of Instagram. Many patients come and show me pictures of their idols. It is sad, because it is impossible to create a body
in the likeness of someone's, that is, each body is individually one. But, nevertheless, we try ... Women demand a narrow waist
and wide hips. If we talk about the breast, then its increase is the most popular procedure for the body. If we talk about trends
in the face, this is modeling of narrow cheeks, and a beautiful line of the lower jaw, to emphasize the angle of the lower jaw.
The reduction of the nose is also a very urgent procedure. If we talk about men, many men now do not resort to heavy physical
exertion, but make such a special liposuction that helps to create body contours, that is, to create an effect and a kind of
muscular frame on the body "(plastic surgeon).
Operations to design an externally young body are financially expensive. In this regard, it should be noted the inequality
in accessibility to various methods of constructing the body for different social groups. "If you take the fitness services, then
the price range is very large. There are promotions, there are free trial sessions at the fitness club. There are promotions when
right after 50% very cheap and affordable fitness services. There is only one gradation: people with high incomes can go to
more elite clubs, where the range of services is very large, and they are” personally licked” there, there may be some cosmetic
procedures. People with lower incomes, if they want, they are like this - I want to be healthy, because the beauty of the body
and the harmony of the body are, above all, health. When a person realizes it, he comes to a regular fitness club "(fitness
coach).
However, some respondents believe that almost all modern ways of body design are available for people with incomes
above the average. "It seems to me that in our time, even if fitness, yoga, tattoos, tattooing or plastic surgery are all quite
expensive. If a person has a low income, then, unfortunately, much is not available to him/her, unless he/she gets some
discount. Good clothes can be bought in a penny bazaar. A person can follow a diet, but cosmetic effects, tattooing and plastic
surgery are for well-off people" (tattoo artist).
There are a lot of people who are constantly not satisfied with their appearance, although they have experience in using a
variety of ways to transform it, including plastic surgery. In the process of research, the respondents gave examples of such
fans of body design: "They were young runway models that were striving for perfectionism and were doing more than one
liposuctions. They were fairly old people who tried to remove every wrinkle. They were young women who found problems
in themselves, which in fact were not perfect. Many of them were, and they are diverse people. Typically, this is a psychological
disorder, which is called body dysmorphic disorder, when a person does not accept his/her body. This may be the result of
someone's negative criticism, someone's nasty trick ... In fact, such people are sick. Unfortunately, as a rule, they do not find
solutions to their problems and do not find the ideal they seek to find, because it does not exist. There is some discontent, they
constantly want to do something, change something " (plastic surgeon); "I have a fellow who pulled the “Kamaz”, moving
heavy trucks. And now he heals his joints, because he was a fan of this idea. Now he realized that he was a fool person. He
calls himself that ... He's 40 years old, and he feels like” a wreck” "(fitness coach).
The question arises of how much the person understands the consequences of his/her enthusiasm for the construction of
the desired body? Blind following someone else's example without taking into account their individual capabilities, often leads
to sad consequences. According to the respondents, any impact on the body can give negative results under certain conditions.
"First and foremost, it concerns plastic surgery, because in order to correct its consequences, another series of operations is
needed. Secondly, there are cosmetology procedures, because even a simple peeling, but incorrectly made could greatly
damage and the consequences could be completely irreversible ... But, despite all that, people still go on to change themselves
if they have decided that some flaw prevents them from living and if they believe that these or those changes will make them
happy. And without these changes they are unhappy "(psychologist).
The study has shown that a significant part of the population of a large industrial center, according to respondents, do not
turn to specialists for the transformation of their body. There are several main reasons for preserving the habitual attitude for

polocentre.org
icshge.org
the past generations to what man is given by nature. “Some people just do not care themselves. They put up with their body
and appearance. And this is a fashionable trend now: accept yourself as you are. These are the very people. They do not care
about the opinion of others; they do not accept the beauty patterns that is accepted at the moment… they think that everything
is so good for them. They think that they have the rich inward man and it is more important for them"(psychologist). Indeed,
the change in appearance does not change the inward man. It does not radically transform the feelings, thoughts and habits of
the individual. The previous generations lived happily with the bodies given by nature and did not even think that they should
somehow be changed. "People live in harmony with themselves, because they accept themselves as they are, because they
have something to do ... Because they are loved. Perhaps, because propaganda has not yet reached them, which is advertised
by the mass- media " (plastic surgeon).
At the same time, it is noted that "a person is a” lazy creature” ... People come and ask for drugs to lose weight, meanwhile,
they are not ready to go to the gym …" (dietician doctor). Nature has not endowed man with the need for a constant
transformation of his/her body, it focuses on accepting it as it is given from birth. Only patterns of culture, acting as an external
necessity, induce to be included in practices to change their corporeality. They require, first of all, such level of willingness to
work on themselves, which is stronger than the need for rest and doing nothing. There is also a factor limiting the activity of
individual individuals, such as the lack of the necessary financial means. "Some people do not have money. If they gave out
rhinoplasty without anesthesia and without money, everyone would go and there would be queues "(psychologist).
Therefore, there are a number of factors, both inducing the person’s inclusion in different practices of body design and
restricting the need for person’s activities that require a general reorganization of the relationship of a person to himself/herself
and to his/her body.
IV. CONCLUSION
Sociological research has revealed a new trend: more and more stable people's orientation towards bringing their body in
line with the cultural patterns existed in the society. They are related not only to the preservation and strengthening of the
person’s physical health. At present a body is in demand that is capable, by its psychical activity, to engage in the development
of new technologies and technical devices that appear in production, in everyday life and in the leisure activities of the vast
majority of the population. Constantly updating the subjects with which a person interacts in everyday life creates the need to
acquire not only new knowledge and ideas of the world, but also to ensure his/her physical correspondence to the changes that
are taking place in the society. The universal value of designing an externally young body is affirmed. Such body is created
with the help of affordable for the majority residents of large industrial centers of fitness clubs, yoga centers, medical classes
and services of cosmetologists, and plastic surgeons, which requires significant financial costs.
The study has elucidated that there is a social mandate for a significant increase in organizations that ensure the
implementation of the needs of different socio-demographic and professional groups in the formation of the much-needed by
both the society and the person body.
Our research has shown that modern practices of body design become a product of homogenization and cultural
integration, which includes representatives of different countries, communities and states. It should be noted that we observe
the processes of daily living standardization in different cultures and societies through the practice of human body design, as
well as the inequality in access to these practices for different social strata and groups.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This research was supported by a Russian Foundation for Basic Research grant to the Ural Federal University (№ 18-011-
00150 А).
REFERENCES
Aalten, A. (1990) ‘Performing the body, creating culture’, European Journal of Women’s Studies, Vol. 4 No 2. pp. 197-215. DOI:
10.1177/135050689700400205
Attride Stirling, J. (2001) ‘Thematic networks: an analytical tool for qualitative research’, Qualitative Research, Vol. 1 No 3. pp. 385-405. DOI:
10.1177/146879410100100307
Crossley, N. (2005) ‘Mapping reflexive body techniques: On body modification and maintenance’, Body & Society, Vol. 11 No 1. pp. 1-35. DOI:
10.1177/1357034X05049848
Dawkins, R. (1989) ‘The selfish gene’. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
DeGrazia, D. (2012). ‘Genetic enhancement, post-persons and moral status: a reply to Buchanan’. Journal of Medical Ethics Vol 38. pp. 135–139. DOI:
10.1136/medethics-2011-100126
Duarte, B.N., Park, E. (2014). ‘Body, technology and society: A dance of encounters’, NanoEthics, Vol. 8 No 3. pp. 259–261. DOI: 10.1007/s11569-014-
0211-0
Evans-Brawn, M., McVeigh, J., Perkins, C., Bellis, M.A. (2012). ‘Human Enhancement Drugs’. Liverpool: North West Public Health Observatory.
Foucault, M. (1986) ‘The Care of the Self. The history of sexuality 3’. Trans. R. Hurley. New York: Pantheon Books.
Joas, H. (1996) ‘Die Kreativität des Handelns’. Suhrkamp, Frankfurt am Main.
Johansson, J., Tienari, J., Valtonen, A. (2017) ‘The body, identity and gender in managerial athleticism’, Human Relations, Vol. 70 No 9, pp. 1141-1167.
DOI: 10.1177/0018726716685161
Kim, J, Rhamat-Samii, Y. (2004) ‘Implanted antennas inside a human body: Simulations designs and characterizations’, IEEE Transactions on Microwave
Theory and Techniques Vol. 52 No 8. pp. 1934-1943.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Roggenkamp, H., Nicholls, A., Pierre, J. (2017) ‘Tattoos as a window to the psyche: How talking about skin art can inform psychiatric practice’, World
Journal of Psychiatry, Vol. 7 No 3. pp. 148–158. DOI: 10.5498/wjp.v7.i3.148
Shilling, C. (2008) ‘Changing bodies: habit, crisis and creativity’. London: Sage Publications.
Siep, L. (2003). ‘Normative aspects of the human body’, Journal of Medicine and Philosophy Vol. 28 No 2. pp. 171–185. DOI:
10.1076/jmep.28.2.171.14208
Turner, B.S. (2008) ‘The Body and Society: Explorations in Social Theory’. Third Edition. London: SAGE Publications Ltd.
Warwick, K. (2014). ‘The cyborg revolution’, NanoEthics Vol. 8. pp. 263–273. DOI: 10.1007/s11569-014-0212-z
Witz, A. (2000) ‘Whose Body Matters? Feminist Sociology and the Corporeal Turn in Sociology and Feminism’, Body and Society. Vol. 6 No 2. pp. 1-24.
Young, I.M. (2005) ‘Female Body Experience: “Throwing Like a Girl” and Other Essays’. Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Sustainable land reforms as a comprehensive migration management

agenda: A perspective of social inclusion in postcolonial Africa
Mwangi, S.M.
Tübingen University, Stuttgart 73728, Germany; sawaamy@gmail.com
Abstract—Land is an essential factor of production in the economy. Moreover, it has an aesthetic and traditional value that
should not be taken for granted. In most developing countries, there have been chronic unresolved land-related issues right
from the colonial era. During colonization, ‘the divide and rule strategy’ of maintaining power by the colonialists led to the
displacement of many African communities to weaken their ethnic cohesion and ability to conspire and fight back. Even after
independence, the land issue remained unresolved and continued to multiply with the high population growth rate. After
independence, the absence of national land policy to guide a coherent transition of land ownership led to the increased
marginalization of many communities. Today, in many African countries, marginalization manifests through the proliferation
of informal settlement, land degeneration, chaotic communal land tenure, and unsustainable food security systems/high
prevalence of hunger. In some African countries, agrarian communities have had chronic conflicts with nomadic communities
while in others countries, historical land-related injustices are the key factor for the increased rate of radicalization and the
spread of terrorism. Due to the weak legislative framework in many African countries, land-related conflicts remain profound,
and so does the human displacement. Amidst those conflicts, addressing the historic land injustices agenda has not been well
presented as a comprehensive approach of managing the root cause of migration. This paper links the concept of human
security to land security and relates them to social-ecological vulnerability and resilience. It then explores the management of
such insecurities as one aspect of addressing the root causes of marginalization, poverty, violence and forced displacement in
Africa.
Keywords—historical land injustices, poverty and marginalization, conflict and wars, land reforms, comprehensive migration
management
I. BACKGROUND
L AND-RELATED issues are directly or indirectly the main cause of instability, conflict, and violence in Africa. When we
think of addressing the root causes of human displacement and irregular migration (comprehensive migration
management) in Africa, historical land injustices, marginalization, and the need for land reforms ought to be one of the critical
agendas. Yet, it has never appeared in the EU-Africa partnership on migration management major policy documents. A
perspective of a solution of African’s vulnerability and fragility underpin to enhanced social inclusion through sustainable land
reforms. Generally, there appears to be a delink between international relations with Africa in addressing poverty and the ‘real
threat’ facing Africans.
The colonial era marked the beginning of land-related issues; even after independence due to the weak legislative
framework, corruption and impunity in many African countries, land challenges remained unresolved. Land-related conflicts
remain profound, and so does human displacement. Today, these issues have developed to become catastrophic, in terms of
conflict, violence, wars (at both household and communal levels) leading to mass displacement in current Africa. Chronic
disputes between sedentary farmers and nomadic communities, as well as ethnic groups, have forced people out of their
homes. Landlessness and marginalization have caused high radicalization, and high prevalence of hunger is on the rise. This
paper links the concept of human security to land security and relates them to social-ecological vulnerability and resilience. It
then explores the sustainable land reforms as one aspect of comprehensive management of marginalization, poverty, violence
and therefore management of the root causes of forced displacement and irregular migration in Africa.
By linking human insecurity and land insecurity, the paper derives migration push factors in Africa. It then explores land
reforms as a distinct and comprehensive agenda and suggests its inclusion in the EU-Africa partnership on the management of
migration. Rather than addressing the traditional land reforms, this paper broadens the concept to ‘sustainable land reforms’
under the consciousness of the current Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework. The focus of analysis thus shifts
from the narrow conceptualization of ‘changing the system of land ownership and rights’, to a more comprehensive one. The
paper defines sustainable land reforms as ‘a land-based development model that involves addressing historical socio-economic
marginalization, fairer distribution of land resources, community empowerment and promotion of environmental security that
supplement the change of land use and ownership, to generate stability, resilience and sustainability’.
One category of conflict is political violence. In this paper, I want to downplay political violence as a categorization of
conflict and rather perceive it as a manifestation of politicization of land injustices and social, economic marginalization.
Analytically, using the conflict tree assessment, land injustices such as unfair distribution of land, is a static factor founded at
the roots. Alternatively, by use of baseline (rates and ratios of violence over a time period, an area or a characteristic of an
area 1), the paper establishes historical land injustices and community marginalization to analyse the constellation of conflict,
violence and extreme poverty that are the current migration push factor across and outside Africa. The beginning point of
analyzing land reforms in a broader perspective is to link specific cases of conflicts over land and tracing the origin at different
levels, i.e. local, national, and global processes that have shaped the existence of the current land issues and struggles.
1
DFID (2013;10)

polocentre.org
icshge.org
II. LAND INJUSTICES AND MIGRATION PUSH FACTORS

The significance of land injustices, marginalization and poverty is demonstrated by numerous conflicts in Africa. For
instance, what was is commonly known as the 2007 post-election violence in Kenya that led to the death of more than a
thousand people while hundreds of thousands were displaced, was later diagnosed as a conflict based majorly on the historical
land issues – right from the independence 2. The lack of legal and fair channels to express land grievances has led to the rise of
radicalization. The Truth Justice and Reconciliation Commission (TJRC) set to investigate the origin and manifestation of
ethnic conflicts and violence in Kenya found that one factor that proliferates radicalization is land injustices:
‘...land-related injustices at the Coast (of Kenya) constitute one of the key reasons for underdevelopment in
the area and lie at the root of the emergence of the Mombasa Republican Council (MRC)’(pg.47). ‘[…] of the
emergence of Sabaot Land Defence Force (SLDF) was due to the government’s failure to address land-related
injustices that members of the Sabaot have suffered for a long time. (pg. 71). Both LDF and MRC were rebel
groups associated with violence 3 (TJRC, 2013).
In West Africa, unsolved land issues and lack of proper channels to address them are the root causes of extreme poverty and
radicalization, the spread of terror groups and eventual war and human displacement.
‘Drivers of fragility in West Africa are represented in the lack of clarity around land ownership, the neglect
and the marginalization of peripheral regions, which are also often border regions, and the demographic
challenge posed by an increasingly youthful population demanding greater inclusion, in particular through jobs
and livelihood opportunities’(Marc et al., 2015; xv).
West Africa and the Horn of Africa are the two African regions with the highest forced displacement and irregular
migration, especially to Europe, with instability and conflict emerging from the competition and struggle over land resources 4.
For instance, the conflict in Mali can be traced back to the 1950s. Currently, Tuareg who perceive themselves as marginalised
and discriminated fight for more inclusion 5. In Nigeria, the level of development in regions occupied by Hausa Fulani is very
low compared to regions occupied by other communities 6. The origin of Boko Haram has partially been linked to the historical
political and economic marginalization among people especially in Borno, Yobe and Kanuri in Northeast of Nigeria 7.
Environmental change and in particular the climatic change is increasingly becoming migration push factor 8. In Ethiopia, other
than conflict land-related issues such as drought are the key migration push factor displacing more than with 857,000
Ethiopians. 9 10 11
III. SUSTAINABLE LAND REFORMS AS A MISSING AGENDA IN COMPREHENSIVE MIGRATION MANAGEMENT

Human security is referred to as ‘freedom from fear and freedom from want.’ 12 Thus, sustainable land reform would free
the marginalised from economic fears such as extream poverty and hunger, and as well would free other communities and
household from attacks from those who perceive themselves marginalised. The ability to enhance land securities as an aspect
of human security translates to the success to establish a sustainable and resilient social-ecological stability. On the flip side,
any failure would mean maintenance of the status quo – vulnerability and human insecurity. In this context, security might not
sustainably be managed by police and military but rather by economists and development strategists. Nevertheless, due to the
multidimensional perspectives of the current conflict and fragility in Africa, a synergy of the two categories of security actors
is necessary.
TABLE I
MAPPING MIGRATION MANAGEMENT AGENDA/OBJECTIVES IN THE EU-AFRICA PARTNERSHIP
Migration management Agenda The EU-Africa partnership containing the agenda
Enhancing Border management capacities in Africa, Rabat process report (2006); Khartoum Process (2004); Sahel Regional Action Plan (2015) 2015-
i.e. border surveillance 2020; EU Horn of Africa Regional Action Plan (2015)
Curbing human trafficking/migration smuggling EU Horn of Africa Regional Action Plan (2015); Rabat process report (2006); Sahel Regional
Action Plan (2015) 2015-2020; Khartoum Process (2004)
Strengthening of EU-Africa co-operation on return Mobility partnership; Common Agenda on mobility and migration (2015); EU Horn of Africa
and readmission of migrants Regional Action Plan (2015)
Addressing the root cause of human displacement EU Horn of Africa Regional Action Plan (2015); Rabat process report (2006);Common Agenda
on mobility and migration (2015);
Enhancing African states’ capacity to Protect and Common Agenda on mobility and migration (2015); EU Horn of Africa Regional Action Plan
refugees and asylum (2015)
Source: researcher’s own compilation
It is clear that sustainable land reforms can address the key root of the causes of migration. Yet the agenda has not well
been integrated into the broader EU-Africa migration control. The table below summarizes the objectives (which are presumed
to be the agendas) of various agreements and actions plans of the EU-Africa partnership on migration control. The aim of
2
(see, Truth, Justice and reconciliation Report, 2013)
3
McGregor (2012)
4
Maconachie et al (2014)
5
Stewart, (2013)
6
Langer and Stewart (2014),
7
Matfess (2017;2)
8
Black et al,. (2011); Black et al,. (2013)
9
FAO (2017)
10
The government of Ethiopia (2018)
11
See similar cases for the Horn of Africa: Southern Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea
12
UNDP (2004)

polocentre.org
icshge.org
highlighting this is to demonstrate the absence of land reforms agenda especially in the management of the root cause of
displacement in Africa (Table 1).
Quite a number of initiatives take more of migration control strategies, even those that appear to address the root cause
of human displacement but do not adequately include land injustices and related marginalization as the root cause of forced
displacement and push factor for irregular migration. There appears to be an oversimplification in addressing the ‘root’ cause
of migration where most official documents highlight the need to provide education, employment among youths, promotion
of entrepreneurship and agribusiness to address poverty in the migrants home countries. However, there seems to lack a clear
strategy from both the EU and the African Partners in outlining the root cause to the real threats and means to address them.
A close analysis of different projects on managing the root causes on migration indicates the absence of sustainable land reform
agenda. For instance, it is not clear how sustainable agribusiness can be established in a community experiencing historical
land injustices, marginalization and that suffers from chronic land conflicts. Land reforms ought to be the starting point in
order to establish the foundation of management of second level causes of migration.
IV. RECOMMENDATIONS
Most importantly, there is a need for inclusion of ‘sustainable land reforms’ as an agenda in the EU-Africa partnership
on migration management. Land reforms should be conceptualized in the broader perspective that involves the equitable
distribution of mineral and other land resource revenues. To achieve sustainable land reforms to address the historical land
injustice, sustainable and comprehensive governance reforms should be a viable alternative to create legitimate avenues for
political bargaining and expressing community land-related grievances. In this regard, land reforms should entail more than
addressing injustice by legally defining what belongs to who, but rather need to be accompanied by a social-economic stimulus
package to address the effects of long-term marginalization and vulnerability and to enhance inclusion.
In practical terms, there is a need to reorient land reforms towards the establishment of socially equitable and economically
viable redistribution of land in order to have sustainable and participatory environmental conservation models among the
marginalised. This might solve the current challenge where governments appear to be in a struggle with the locals who are
forced to move from some protected areas with no specific areas to relocate. Despite a general acceptance that community
development and local participation are paramount for comprehensive biodiversity protection, it can only be viable with
sustainable land reforms. In this case, land reforms ought to establish proper environmental conservation macroeconomic goals
that address historical injustices and marginalization. In so doing rather than fighting the historically marginalized communities
out of protected areas such as forests which leads to more marginalization, empowering them to be agents of conservation of
the same forests can create sustainable conservation management and enhanced stability. Linking land reform to practices such
as agroforestry can be more sustainable compared to some retrogressive protected area buffer zones, which are costly to
maintain, and do not address historical land injustices.
The sustainability in land reforms calls for international development agent to expand their scope of operation beyond the
traditional jurisdiction. A perusal of the last three annual World Bank reports (2015, 2016, 2017), hardly indicates any trace
of land reform. It is not even listed as one of the ‘toughest development challenges’ (World Bank, 2015:16). International
development financiers such as the World Bank in collaboration with African governments need to include sustainable land
reforms as one of the development areas, to invest in, in order to establish stability, and accelerate economic development in
the region. Other global organizations such as UHNCR and IOM that are concerned with migration need to include sustainable
land reform agenda in their scope in an effort to protect potential migrants and asylum seekers through building resilience and
addressing migration push factors sustainably. Despite a large amount of foreign aid to refugee-hosting countries in Africa,
there are minimal environmental conservation programs around refugee camps. UNHRC need to put more efforts advocating
for land policies that allow refugees engage in the production of their own food to reduce dependence on relief aid that is never
enough (see, success stories from Uganda).
Worthwhile noting, such comprehensive land reforms is not without potential challenges. Corruption and impunity are
the major hindrances of changes, especially where the elites are the major beneficiaries of the status quo especially in Africa.
However, development is not an event but rather a process. Sustainable land reform needs to be an ever alive agenda at local,
national and international levels and a foundation of human security in Africa as well as in the achievement of SDGs.
REFERENCES
Black, R., Adger, W.N., Arnell, N.W., Dercon, S., Geddes, A. and Thomas, D. (2011) The effect of environmental change on human migration. Global
Environmental Change. 21s S3–S11.
Black, R., Arnell, N. W., Adger, W. N., Thomas, D. and Geddes, A. (2013) Migration, immobility and displacement outcomes following extreme events.
Environmental science and policy. 2 7s; 3 2 – 4 3.
DFID (2013) African Conflicts Baselines and Trends. Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED): Overview, Uses & Applications.
FAO (2017) Drought response plan and priorities in 2017. https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/fao-ethiopia-drought-response-plan-and-priorities-2017-
revised-version-august-2017
Langer, A., and F. Stewart. (2014). Regional Imbalances, Horizontal Inequalities and Violent Conflicts: Insights from Four West African Countries.
Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Group, World Bank, Washington, DC.
Maconachie, R., R, Srinivasan, and N. Menzies. (2014). Responding to the Challenge of Fragility and Security in West Africa: Natural Resources,
Extractive Industry Investment, and Social Conflict. Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Group, World Bank, Washington, DC.
Marc Alexandre, Verjee Neelam, and Mogaka Stephen. (2015) the change of stability and security in West Africa. A co-publication of the Agence Française
de Développement and the World Bank, Washington, DC.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Matfess Hilary (2017) Boko Haram: History and Context. Political History, Religious History, West Africa. DOI: 10.1093/9780190277734.013.119
McGregor Andrew (2012) Kenya’s Coast Province and the Mombasa Republican Council: Islamists, Separatists or Political Pawns? Terrorism Monitor
Volume: 10 Issue: 20.
Stewart Dona, J, (2013) What is next for Mali? The roots of conflict and challenges to stability. Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College
Press.
The government of Ethiopia (2018) Ethiopia: 2018 Humanitarian and Disaster Resilience Plan https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/ethiopia-2018-
humanitarian-and-disaster-resilience-plan
Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Report, (2013). Summary of The Truth, Justice, And Reconciliation Commission (TJRC) Report.
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 1994. Human Development Report: Annual Report. New York: UNDP.
World Bank (2015) Annual Report 2015 World Bank Group, Washington, D.C.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Chapter 8.

icshge.org
Special Issue 2 December 2018
ISSN 2036-7929
Imprint: PCS Publishing, Co.
SPECIAL ISSUE 2 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE AND STUDIES DECEMBER 2018
COVER PAGE
The cover page for this special issue of the International Journal
of Sustainability Science and Studies was selected in accordance
with the Editor’s Choice and committee board. The authors of this
paper have highlighted a significant and comprehensive
relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and GDP in
Brazil using both aggregate and state-level datasets.
Additional evidence comes from state-level data analysis
where one can observe a great deal of heterogeneity but also
some hope as far as decoupling is concerned. In addition to
the trend relationship, there does not seem to exist a cyclical
relation holding in Brazil at the aggregate level. The cover page
has utilised Figure 6 from the article in which cyclical elasticities
across Brazilian States are displayed.
PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

All articles published within this Special Issue have been taken
from the submitted articles to the 2nd International Conference
on Sustainability, Human Geography and Environment
2018 (ICSHGE18) [www.icshge.org]. This Special Issue
is being included as a chapter in the Conference Proceedings.
PCS PUBLISHING, CO. DISCLAIMER

PCS Publishing, Co. has agreed to publish these articles with
the disclaimer that if there is more than one author of a paper,
the nominated author(s) is/are required to seek, attain and
keep a record of all the submitted emails of the manuscript to
ICSHGE18 so all other author(s) can be informed of their
work being published within this Special Issue. PCS
Publishing, Co. will publish this Special Issue online in PDF
format on its website at: [www.polocentre.org/resources/
publications/ijhges].
SUGGESTED REFERENCING STYLE

Aghmashhadi, A.H., and Zahedi, S. (2018). Estimation of production and rate of consumerism for electronic wastes of Arak City for
prospecting purposes and policies for these wastes. Int J Sustain Sc Studies, SI2: 488-494.
ITALIAN CENTRE ISSN AND PUBLICATION DETAILS

Centro Italiano ISSN
Country Code: ITA
Centre Code: D
JOURNAL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Biblioteca Centrale “G. Marconi” (Italian Central Library “G. Marconi”)
Prof. Dr. Giuseppe T. Cirella, Ph. D. Piazzale Aldo Moro, 7
Director and Head of Research 00185, ROME, ITALY
Polo Centre of Sustainability Publication Name: International Journal of Sustainability Science and Studies
PCS Publishing, Co. Publication Abbreviation: Int J Sustain Sc Studies
E: ppc@polocentre.org International Standard Serial Number: ISSN 2036-7929
W: www.polocentre.org
Contents
Polluting Emissions and GDP: Decoupling Evidence from Brazilian States 462
Jalles, J.T.
Sustainability and Sectoral Stability in Africa’s Natural Resources Utilization 476

Estimation of production and rate of consumerism for electronic wastes of Arak City for prospecting purposes 488
and policies for these wastes Aghmashhadi, A.H., and Zahedi, S.
Treatment of Uranium and Heavy Metals on Soil and in Groundwater 495

Choi, J.
Social Networks of Student-Migrants: Case of Chinese Students at the Ural Federal University, Russia 499
Antonova, N., and Purgina, E.
Time series dynamics of precipitation patterns in four major urban cities in sub-Saharan Africa: Persistence, seasonality 504
and long memory Awe, O.O., and Gil-Alana, L.A.
Creation of maps of extreme weather events under the conditions of climate change 509
Romanov, S.L., Chernoukha, B.N., and Agaronova S.I.
Analysis of degradation kinetics of Naphthalene and Acenaphthene on industrial sludge of lubricant refinery 512
by anaerobic degradation Sabetifard, S.H., Kazemi Moayed, H., and Daneshfar, M.A.
Weather Risk and Off-Farm Labor Supply of Smallholder Farm Households in Developing Countries 517
Gansonré, S.
Legislation, Resources and Rights: A Case Study of Forest Rights in India 530
Patel, T., Sharma, A.R., and Tripathi, A.
Analysis of Sound Absorption Coefficient (Case Study: Gypsum panel, gypsum-arenga pinnata fibre, arenga 539
pinnata fibre-gypsum and foamed concrete- arenga pinnata fibre) Fuady, Z., Ismail, Fauzi, and Zulfian
Applying United Nations Sustainable Development Goals at the Foreign Languages Centre of the University 551
of Gdansk Swebocka, A.
polocentre.org
icshge.org
Polluting Emissions and GDP: Decoupling Evidence from Brazilian

States
Jalles, J.T.
UECE – Research Unit on Complexity and Economics, Centre for Globalization and Governance, Nova School of Business
and Economics, Campus Campolide, Lisbon, 1099-032 Portugal; joaojalles@gmail.com
Abstract—We provide a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and GDP in
Brazil using both aggregate and state-level data. The trend or Kuznets elasticity is about 0.8 for Brazil, higher than that in
advanced countries but below that of major emerging markets. The elasticity is somewhat higher for consumption-based
emissions than for production-based emissions, providing evidence against the “pollution haven” hypothesis. Additional
evidence comes from state-level data analysis where one can observe a great deal of heterogeneity but also some hope as far
as decoupling is concerned. In addition to the trend relationship, we find that there does not seem to exist a cyclical relation
holding in Brazil at the aggregate level (despite having become more procyclical over time), but it does exist in a few states.
Keywords—greenhouse gas, cycle, environmental Kuznets curve, Brazil, regional analysis, detrending, filtering
JEL Classifications—E32, O44, Q43, Q54, Q56
I. INTRODUCTION
E NERGY’S role to attain socio-economic development has been historically recognized (see e.g. Mulder and de Groot,
2011; Henriques and Borowiecki, 2014). The relevance of BRICs for the environment is determined by their unique stage
and pace of economic development requiring industrial-based production, which often relies on non-sustainable solutions. 1
Global carbon dioxide emissions rose nearly 50 percent over the last two decades (Peters et al., 2012). To the international
community, the link between economic activity and environmental pressures represents a risk to the global efforts towards
emission reductions (OECD, 2002).
Brazil ranks as the world’s seventh largest economy, has a population of over 200 million and a landmass two times larger
than the European Union. Brazil also plays an important and unique role in climate change: it is within the world’s list of top
10 largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters (IEA and REN21, 2012) and home to one of the greatest ecosystems and forests of
the planet. Despite the high and increasing share of renewables in its energy mix, Brazil’s strong and continuous economic
growth in recent decades (that ejected millions of Brazilians out of poverty and redistributed the fruits of its abundant natural
resources) raises environmental concerns since both energy demand and related GHG emissions continue to grow. This
suggests that Brazil needs further improvements in environmental services and more efficient implementation of environmental
laws. 2 The main sources of GHG emissions are energy power, transportation and agriculture (including land use, cattle and
illegal deforestation) (MCT, 2009). 3 Agriculture accounts for 25 percent of Brazil’s emissions (McKinsey & Company, 2012).
At the same time, the fastest emissions growth in 2012 occurred in Brazil’s energy sector. 4
That being said, Brazil still represents one of the countries with the biggest potential to curb emissions. Brazil is very eco-
friendly when compared with the energy sector of most other major economies, boasting the world’s most advanced bioethanol
industry and producing most of its electricity from hydropower. 5 Agricultural policy in Brazil has increasingly been focused
on sustainable development. In fact, the increased productivity of agricultural production has been reducing the pressure on
deforestation and the biofuels production has been increasing the range of renewable sources that can be substituted to fossil
fuels (OECD/FAO, 2015). 6 Reducing tropical deforestation is desirable, not only because it might be one of the cheapest
options to effectively reduce global CO2 emissions (Kindermann et al., 2008), but also because it would enhance sinks and
protect valuable ecosystems (Canadell and Raupach, 2008).
The strong link between economic growth and emissions in Brazil deserves more attention (see section 2 for a review).
1
China, India and Brazil recognized their importance in the global warming theme announcing pledges on domestic emissions reduction (Richardson et al.,
2009; UNFCCC, 2010).
2
Recognizing the international call to mitigate carbon emissions, Brazil ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
in 1994 along with the Kyoto Protocol in 2002.
3
High emissions from land use mostly occur in the tropical regions, where forest carbon density is highest (Baccini et al., 2012). Moreover, it is widely
recognized that Land-Use Change and Forestry is a key sector of climate change (IPCC, 2007). Emissions from land use change grew 23 percent in 2016,
accounting for roughly half of all GHG released into the atmosphere by Brazil. This was driven by a 29 percent increase in Amazon deforestation between
2015 and 2016, according to the National Institute for Space Research (“INPE”). Brazil suffered and still regularly suffers pressure to curb destruction of the
Amazon rainforest (Cerri, 2010). Between 1970 and 2010, approximately 18 percent of the Brazilian Amazon was deforested (Baccini et al., 2012), with the
primary cause being demand for new land for the cultivation of soybeans and expansion of pasture (Barona et al 2010, Hosonuma et al., 2012).
4
Figures from the 2009 Brazilian Inventory of Anthropogenic Emissions and Removals of Greenhouse Gases show that energy consumption-induced CO2
emissions are the second major source of GHG emissions in Brazil, after land-use change and forestry-related emissions, which grew of more than 70 percent
from 1990 to 2005 (MCT, 2009).
5
It was in the context of the stagnation surrounding the oil shocks of the 1970s that policies for energy diversification and oil substitution were implemented
(Araujo and Ghirardi, 1987). Between 1975 and 1985, the inauguration of several hydropower plants and the launch of the National Alcohol Program allowed
an extraordinary reshaping of the national energy matrix. Developments of new renewable energy sources allowed improvements in the quality of Brazilian’s
energy matrix and converted it into the cleanest among transition economies (Gouvello, 2010).
6
Nowadays agriculture in Brazil supplies almost half of the total energy supply. Renewable energy from agriculture comprises mainly of sugarcane biomass
(42 percent) and hydraulic energy (28 percent).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
In fact, progress on global climate change goals will be difficult to achieve unless the pace of emissions slows down
significantly in Brazil. Some argue that Brazil's high emissions are due in large part to its major role in the international trading
system (see e.g. Machado et al., 2001); the “pollution haven” hypothesis asserts that "emissions reductions observed in
developed nations are partly the result of shifting dirty production to developing nations" such as Brazil (see Kerasley and
Riddel, 2010). That being said, recent shifts in domestic policy seem to indicate that Brazil's policymakers are determined to
further transform the country's energy system in ways that will reduce both energy-related carbon dioxide emissions and air
pollution faster than previously anticipated. 7 In September 2015, Brazil became the first major developing country to pledge
an absolute reduction in GHG emissions ahead of Paris climate talks: it would cut its emissions by 37 percent by 2025 from
2005 levels by reducing deforestation and boosting the share of renewable sources in its energy mix.
In this paper, we provide evidence on the relationship between emissions and GDP growth in Brazil and investigate
whether there are signs of decoupling between the two. As in Cohen et al. (2018), we distinguish the trend relationship between
emissions and GDP from the cyclical relationship. The Kuznets elasticity - the response of trend emissions to trend GDP - is
about 0.8 in Brazil, which is higher than that in major advanced economies but lower than in many emerging markets. The
estimate is robust to alternative methods of detrending the data such as the commonly-used Hodrick-Prescott filter and the
newer filter proposed by Hamilton (2017). We find that the elasticity is somewhat lower with production-based emissions than
with consumption-based emissions. The direction of these results is not entirely consistent with the pollution haven hypothesis
but the quantitative difference between the two elasticities is not large (or statistically different from one another).
Consequently, our findings suggest that shifts in the allocation of global production across countries are not a major driver of
shifts in the pattern of emissions growth in Brazil.
Then, our analysis for 27 states does not reveal any underlying inverted U-shape relationship between the intensity of
emissions-GDP relationship and the level of per capita GDP (or evidence of the EKC - Grossman and Krueger, 1995). That is,
at the state level, we do not observe that Kuznets elasticity initially increases with provincial per capita real GDP but then
declines. However, results from state-level data hold out the hope since several individual states show signs of decoupling and
the relationship between emissions and GDP growth is expected to weaken as Brazil gets richer.
We also provide evidence on the cyclical relationship between emissions and GDP growth. The cyclical elasticity - the
response of the cyclical component of emissions to the cyclical component of GDP - ranges from -0.1 to 1.5, depending on the
filtering method used and on whether production-based or consumption-based emissions are used. That being said, results
seem to suggest short-run acyclicality between emissions and growth, which has become slightly more procyclical as time
went by. Finally, we further find evidence of asymmetry in the cyclical relationship: the elasticity is higher in booms than
during busts, and thus Brazil’s emissions go up more when GDP is above trend than they decrease when GDP is below trend.
However, this result seems to be mainly driven by a few states. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide a
comprehensive look at the extent of decoupling of emissions and output for Brazil, looking at both trends and cycles, using
both production-based and consumption-based estimates, and using both national and sub-national data. In addition, we also
employ recent filtering techniques to detrend time series of interest and rely on sophisticated approaches to estimate time-
varying coefficients. Some other studies looked at long-run growth rates of emissions and GDP for a large group of countries.
For instance, Csereklyei and Stern (2015) used long-run growth rates for 93 countries and found weak decoupling, while Jakob
et al. (2012) found that the average developing economy experienced above-average growth of total carbon dioxide emissions
over the 1971-2005 period.
The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 briefly presents the literature on the broad topic of emissions
and economic activity in Brazil. Section 3 discusses the paper's empirical approach, aggregate level data, and the baseline
estimates of the cyclical and Kuznets elasticities across a broad range of filtering techniques and data. Section 4 broadens the
analysis by looking to trends and cycles at the state level. In the last section, we conclude and the policy implications are
discussed.

Most of the literature relating energy pollution and economic activity has focused on the empirical analysis of the trend
behavior between emissions and GDP, i.e., has focused on the long-run (the Kuznets elasticity) and omitted the short-run
cyclical relationship that might equally exist. However, the amount of research inspecting the so-called Environmental Kuznets
Curve (EKC) in the BRICS countries is limited. Some contributions are due to Tamazian et al. (2009) who study the growth-
pollution nexus in the BRIC countries to follow up on the criticism of the EKC hypothesis provided by Stern (2004). They
found that at higher levels of economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions decrease with economic growth, therefore confirming
the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship. The application of EKC in the BRICS is also studied by Chakravarty and
Mandal (2016) by means of panel data techniques. The authors found mixing evidence depending on the exact technique used.
Other studies empirically assessing the link between emissions and GDP growth in the BRIC countries include the works
by Pao and Tsai (2010) who examined dynamic causal relationships between pollutant emissions, energy consumption and
output for a panel of BRIC countries over the period 1971-2005. Wendy et al. (2014) focused on the nexus between electricity
consumption, growth and emissions in the same group of countries. Melike and Tashin (2014) looked at coal and natural gas
7
Government policy to reduce emissions has been largely focused on reducing emissions from deforestation through the Action Plan for the Prevention and
Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon (PPCDAM) introduced in 2004. Following this success, on December 29, 2009 Brazil adopted Law 12.187,
which established the country’s “Política Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima” (PNMC), Brazil’s National Climate Change Policy.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
instead and their relationship with economic activity also in BRICs. Wu et al. (2015) reexamined the relationship between
energy consumption, urban population, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in the BRIC countries between 2004-
2010 using a novel multi-variable grey model.
Studies specifically directed to the Brazilian case include the study by Machado and Schaeffer (2005) who found that a
significant part of the upward trend in overall energy intensity in Brazil was related to both economic restructuring toward low
value-added and energy-intensive activities. Wachmann et al. (2009) examined the sources of changes in energy use of the
Brazilian economy of industries and households from 1970 to 1996, using structural decomposition analysis based on the
logarithmic mean divisia index technique. Pao and Tsai (2011) examined the dynamic relationships between pollutant
emissions, energy consumption and output in Brazil for the period 1980-2007. They used a grey model to predict the carbon
dioxide emissions in Brazil. Also, Freitas and Kaneko (2011a) examined the occurrence of a decoupling between the growth
rates in economic activity and carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in Brazil from 2004 to 2009. The decoupling
was highlighted when economic activity and carbon dioxide emissions moved in opposite directions in 2009. In another paper,
Freitas and Kaneko’s (2011b (EP)) study evaluated the changes in carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in
Brazil for the period 1970–2009. They decomposed emissions into production and consumption activities allowing computing
the full set of energy sources consumed in the country. Most of the existing decomposition studies addressing the issue of
emissions from energy consumption in Brazil and the main factors affecting changes in carbon dioxide emissions, identify
economic activity and population pressure as main factors driving emissions growth. Likewise, energy mix factor is pointed
as the main factor contributing to emission mitigation (Mendonca and Gutierez, 2000; Medeiros and Dezidera, 2006; Kojima
and Bacon, 2009).
Because of the relevance and peculiarities of Brazil’s energy composition and emission pattern within the context of
climate change, the country has also been subject to several comparative studies. For example, Luukkanen and Kaivooja (2002)
identified that, compared with several other nations, the trend in carbon intensity in Brazil was associated with changes in the
fuel composition. In other words, the authors found that reduction of carbon intensity of energy consumption reflected the
diversification of Brazilian energy mix towards clean sources. Bacon and Bhattacharya (2007) pointed out that energy intensity
in Brazil was a contributing factor towards higher emissions standards, while the observed performance of countries like
Russia, India and China suggested that improvements in energy intensity had been the main factors for emissions reduction.
Kojima and Bacon (2009) observed that the exceptional performance of energy mix in Brazil goes against the general decline
in the weight of energy mix worldwide.
All in all, the literature does not seem to provide a systematic analysis of Brazilian’s emissions-growth nexus at both
aggregate and sub-national level using the variety of concepts (trend vs cycle) and techniques employed here. Hence, this
paper aims to fill such gap.
III. TRENDS AND CYCLES AT THE AGGREGATE LEVEL

A. Empirical Approach
To understand empirically the relationship between emissions and real GDP, we first consider the following specification:
∆et = α + ω∆yt + ut (1)
where ∆et and ∆yt are the growth rates of emissions and real GDP, respectively. We then depart from this specification to
distinguish cycles from trends and thereby to shed light on the recent decoupling phenomena seen in several advanced
economies. As in Cohen et al. (2018), we refer to the relationship between detrended real GDP and emissions as the
Environmental Okun's Law:
e c t = β okun y c t + ε c t (2)
where e c t and yct are the cyclical components of the log of emissions and log of real output, respectively, and β okun is the
cyclical elasticity. We also consider the long-term relationship between emissions and real GDP by analyzing their respective
trends. The Kuznets estimate, β kuznets , relates trend real GDP, y τ t , with trend emissions, eτ t , such that:
eτ t = γ + β kuznets y τ t + ε τ t (3)
We estimate these equations for both national and state-level data. The model is estimated with a constant term ( γ ),
translating the fact that states are expected to be endowed with relatively different initial conditions and, therefore, with some
inherent historical level of emissions.
To extract the cyclical and trend components for a generic variable xt (denoted x c t and x τ t , respectively) where

polocentre.org
icshge.org
xt = { y t , et } , we employ the commonly used Hodrick-Prescott (HP, 1981, 1997) filter. This filter minimizes the following
function:
T T

min ∑ ( xt − xτ t ) 2 + λ ∑ [( xτ t − xτ t −1 ) − ( xτ t −1 − xτ t − 2 )]2  (4)
τt
 t =1 t =1 
where λ is the smoothing parameter set at 100, as common practice when employing annual data. The greater the value of λ
, the larger is the penalty on variations of the trend's growth rate (i.e., the sum of the squares of the trend's second differences).
The criticisms surrounding the use of the HP filter, in particular in the context of a large sample of very heterogeneous
countries, are well-known (see Harvey and Jaeger, 1993; Cogley and Nason, 1995; Hamilton, 2017). We therefore also
compare the cyclical and trend series with the ones proposed by Hamilton (2017) as an alternative filtering method. For that
purpose, we estimate:
k
xt + h = γ 0 + ∑ γ j + xt − j + u t + h (5)
j =0
where xt = xτ t + x c t . The non-stationary part of the regression provides the cyclical component:
x c t = uˆ t (6)
while the trend is given by
k
x τ t = γˆ0 + ∑ γˆ j + xt − h − j (7)
j =0
Hamilton (2017) suggests that h and k should be chosen such that the residuals from equation (5) are stationary and points
out that, for a broad array of processes, the fourth differences of a series are indeed stationary. We choose h = 2 and k = 3,
which is line with the dynamics seen in both emissions and GDP. We also use the Baxter-King (BK) and Christiano-Fitzgerald
(CF) band-pass filters. BK derives a finite approximation to the infinite-order symmetric moving-average filter by estimating
the cyclical component of a time series as:
k
xct = ∑ γˆ
j =− k
j xt − j (8)
k
where γˆ j are the modified weights for a finite-order symmetric moving-average filter such that ∑ γˆ
j =−k
j = 0, γˆ j = γ j − γ k
and γˆ j = γ − j with γj being the ideal weight in the time domain and γ k , its mean truncated at ± k . Removing the cyclical
component of the time series xt provides the trend component x τ t . Similarly, CF derives a finite approximation to the ideal
band-pass filter by minimizing the mean squared error between the filtered series and the series filtered by an ideal band-pass
filter, with the cyclical component given by:
T −t −1 t −2
x c t = γ 0 xt + ∑ γ j xt + j + γ T −t xT + ∑ γ j xt − j +γ t −1 x1
j =1 j =1
(9)
where γ 0 , γ 1 ,... are the weights used by the ideal band-pass filter and γ T −t and γ t −1 are linear functions of the ideal weights.
Equations (1), (2), and (3) are estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) for the aggregate data for Brazil as a whole and
for each state.
B. Data
Real GDP (in national currency) and real GDP growth used for the baseline exercise for Brazil at the aggregate level are
taken from the latest update of the IMFs World Economic Outlook (WEO) database. Our baseline analysis covers the period
1990-2012 and focuses on both CO2 emissions as well as GHG emissions. GHG emissions are aggregated by the World
Resources Institute by types of atmospheric gases (including CO2 and non-CO2 emissions, such as methane (CH4), nitrous

polocentre.org
icshge.org
oxide (N2O), and fluorinated gases (F-gas)) according to their 100-year Global Warming Potential as per the IPCC's 2nd
Assessment Report. CO2 emissions are taken from the International Energy Agency and are derived from fossil fuel
combustion and cement manufacture. CH4 and N2O are taken from both the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US-
EPA) for industrial processes and waste, and from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) for agricultural emissions.
F-gas emissions are provided by the US-EPA and fall within the industrial processes sector. CO2 emissions account for the
vast majority of emissions (more than 83 percent of total emissions), followed by methane at around 9 percent.
In addition to these production-based emissions, we use consumption-based emissions that include the net emissions
embodied in international trade. For CO2 consumption based emissions we rely on the Eora multi-region input-output (MRIO)
database. 8 In order to get the approximate equivalent consumption-based estimates for GHG, we take an arguably simplistic
shortcut: that is, we use the difference between CO2’s consumption- and production-based emissions from Eora’s to adjust
our GHG production-based estimate. Figure 1a shows both production- and consumption-based GHG emissions for our
baseline sample period (1990-2012). Brazil, as is the case for several other emerging and low-income economies, has generally
lower levels of emissions when net emissions from international trade are included than when only production-based emissions
are accounted for.
Brazil
1000.00
900.00
800.00
MtCO2e
700.00
600.00
500.00
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

Year
Production-based GHG Consumption-based GHG
Figure 1a. Consumption- and Production-Based GHG Emissions in Brazil. Source: author calculations
C. Baseline Results
A first crack at the data on emissions and real GDP at the aggregate level yields little evidence of decoupling in Brazil.
Figure 1b presents the results of regressions, estimated over the period 1990 to 2014, of growth in greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions on the growth of real GDP for the 15 largest emitters (cf. equation 1 above). The bars in the figure show the estimated
emissions-output elasticity, the percent change in emissions for a 1 percent change in output, for each of the 15 countries. The
elasticity is positive for all countries, with an average of 0.7, with Brazil obtaining a coefficient of 0.5.
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Figure 1b. Response of emissions growth to real output growth, top 15 emitters. Note: Each bar denotes the response of emissions growth to output growth.
Dark shaded green (red for Brazil) denote statistically significant coefficient estimates at the 10 percent level or better, while light shaded green bars denote
statistically insignificant coefficient estimates. Source: author calculations
8
Additional details about the database can be found in Lenzen et al. (2012, 2013).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
The remainder of this section provides a thorough robustness analysis of alternative filtering methods used to extract the
cyclical fluctuations from their trend components, contrasting the cyclical and Kuznets elasticities derived from these filters.
Figure 2 shows the cycles and trends extracted from the different filters for Brazil’s real GDP and production-based emissions.
Despite the divergent peaks and troughs at the cyclical level, all filters depict trend real GDP to be parallel to trend emissions.
There is thus no sign yet of a clear decoupling between emissions and growth at the aggregate level. 9
Brazil Brazil
Cycle (HP) Trend (HP) Cycle (Hamilton) Trend (Hamilton)
30 .1 30
.02
25 25
.05
Linear prediction
20 20
Residuals
0
15 15
-.02
-.05
10 10
-.04 5 -.1 5
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year Year Year Year
Real GDP Production-based GHG Real GDP Production-based GHG
Brazil Brazil
Cycle (BK) Trend (BK) Cycle (CF) Trend (CF)
.02 30 .04 30
25 25
.02
0
20 20
15 15
-.02
-.02
10 10
-.04 5 -.04 5
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year Year Year Year
Real GDP Production-based GHG Real GDP Production-based GHG
Figure 2. Trends and Cycles in Emissions and Output—Brazil, 1990-2012. Note: “HP” denotes Hodrick-Prescott filter; “Hamilton” denotes the Hamilton
(2017) filter; “BK” denotes the Baxter-King filter; finally, “CF” denotes the Christiano-Fitzgerald filter. Source: author calculations
Table 1 presents the cyclical and Kuznets coefficients across the different filtering methods. Although several advanced
economies have experienced a decoupling between trend real GDP and trend production-based emissions over the same sample
period (Cohen et al., 2018), Brazil presents a positive and statistically significant environmental Kuznets elasticity of 0.88.
The alternative filtering methods used to estimate equation (3) point to a similar average coefficient, ranging from 0.85 to 0.97
with the Hamilton and BK filter, respectively. This suggests Brazil is yet to transition to a low carbon path. 10 The cyclical
coefficient obtained from equation (2) suggests that emissions tend to be generally acyclical (while positive, the coefficient is
not precisely estimated, ranging between -0.12 to 0.24). Using alternative measures of emissions confirms our baseline results
as shown in the bottom part of Table 1. 11 The Kuznets elasticity derived from using CO2 emissions is larger than when
methane and other greenhouse gases are included (1.22), which suggests that when trend GDP grows, trend CO2 emissions
grow faster than other damaging gases. Despite Brazil being one of the main exporters of carbon-intensive inputs, its
consumption-based Kuznets coefficient shows that trend consumption-based emissions grow at a similar rate as its production-
based emissions.
9
A variance decomposition of emissions across the different filters shows that most of the variance in emissions is captured by the variance in trend emissions,
with the relative contribution of the variance of the cyclical terms and the covariance between the trend and cyclical series being negligible.
10
Analyzing the Kuznets residuals confirms that these are stationary, with the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test showing that we reject the hypothesis that
residuals have a unit root (results available upon request).
11
The HP filter was used to extract the cyclical and trend components of these time series.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
TABLE I
CONTRASTING ELASTICITIES AT THE AGGREGATE LEVEL, 1990-2012
Brazil
β̂ Okun β̂ Kuznets
Growth rates, production based GHG 0.241 -
Growth rates, production based CO2 0.945** -
Alternative Filtering Methods
HP filter, production based GHG 0.215 0.881***
Hamilton filter, production based GHG 0.015 0.849***
BK filter, production based GHG 0.236 0.975***
CF filter, production based GHG -0.120 0.865***
Alternative Emissions Data
Production based CO2 0.954*** 1.216***
Production based GHG with LULUCF -0.066 0.193**
Consumption based GHG 1.504*** 0.972***
Note: *, **, ***denote statistical significance at the 10, 5, and 1 percent levels, respectively. Source: author calculations.
Figure 3 compares the cyclical and trend components of production- vs. consumption-based emissions, with these two
types of emissions displaying some co-movement, particularly in more recent years.
Brazil
Cycle (HP) Trend (HP)
7
.05
6.8
6.6
-.05
6.4
6.2
-.1
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year Year
Production-based GHG Consumption-based GHG
Figure 3. Comparison of Trends and Cycles in Production-Based and Consumption-Based Emissions, 1990-2012. Source: author calculations
IV. GOING DEEPER

A. Trends and Cycles: Time-Varying Elasticities and The Role of the business cycle
Although Brazil is one of the world’s top GHG emitter, its economy is transitioning from the manufacturing of industrial
goods and the extraction of carbon-intensive goods to services and more high-end goods. As Brazil gets richer - its real income
per capita went from about US$8339 in 1980 to about US$11322 in 2015 (constant 2010 US$ - World Bank data) - one would
expect its emissions-output elasticity to decrease over time. The previous section looked at our baseline case covering the
1990-2012 period, whereas this section explores whether time dynamics has played a role and whether it can shed light on
Brazil's transition to a low-carbon path, that is, whether there are signs of a decoupling between emissions and output.
We generalize equations (2) and (3) by introducing the assumption that the regression coefficients may vary over time.
In particular, the coefficients γ , β okun and β kuznets are assumed to change slowly and unsystematically over time its
conditional expected value to be equal to its past value. The change of the coefficients β okun or β kuznets is denoted by 𝑣𝑣𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 ,
which is assumed to be normally distributed with expectation zero and variance In order to estimate time-varying estimates 𝜎𝜎𝑖𝑖2 .
of the key parameters of interest, we rely on the Varying-Coefficient model proposed by Schlicht (1985). In this approach the
variances 𝜎𝜎𝑖𝑖2 are calculated by a method-of-moments estimator that coincides with the maximum-likelihood estimator for large
samples (see Schlicht, 1985; Schlicht, 2003; Schlicht and Ludsteck, 2006 for more details). 12 As discussed by Aghion and
12
The approach proposed by Schlicht (2003) is very similar to that used by Aghion and Marinescu 2008. The main difference is in the computation of the
variances 𝜎𝜎𝑖𝑖2 . Aghion and Marinescu (2008) uses the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to approximate these variances, while Schlicht (2003)
uses a method-of-moments estimator.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Marinescu (2008), this method has several advantages compared to other methods to compute time-varying coefficients such
as rolling windows and Gaussian methods. First, it allows using all observations in the sample to estimate the degree of
responsiveness of emissions to GDP in each year—which by construction is not possible in the rolling windows approach.
Second, changes in the degree of responsiveness of emissions to GDP in a given year come from innovations in the same year,
rather than from shocks occurring in neighboring years. Third, it reflects the fact that changes in policy are slows and depends
on the immediate past.
Figure 4 shoes the results of our cyclical and Kuznets time-varying elasticities between 1990-2012 for Brazil. The cyclical
elasticities seem to have changed over time from a value close to zero to one close to 0.2 (which is statistically significantly
different from zero – check the confidence bands). this suggests that emissions have become more procyclical over time. In
contrast, the relatively high (0.88) Kuznets elasticity has been relatively stable throughout the period under scrutiny.
Time Varying Cyclical Elasticity Time Varying Kuznets Elasticity
0.4 0.96
0.35 0.94
0.3 0.92
0.9
0.25
0.88
0.2
0.86
0.15
0.84
0.1
0.82
0.05 0.8
0 0.78
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-0.05 0.76
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-0.1
Figure 4: Time Varying Trends and Cycles in Production-Based Emissions, 1990-2012. Note: the blue line denotes the time varying coefficient estimates.
The orange line denotes the static (time-invariant) average estimate. The dotted black lines correspond to a +1 and -1 standard deviation confidence bands.
Source: author calculations
We also contrast the effect of output on emissions in periods of boom versus bust by estimating:
c ,boom c ,bust
e c t = β okun ,boom y t + β okun ,bust y t + ε ct (10)
c ,boom c c ,bust
where yt is y t from equation (2) when cyclical GDP is above trend (i.e. positive) and 0 otherwise, and yt is given
c
by y t when it is below trend (i.e. negative) and 0 otherwise. Table 2 shows these estimates. Brazil's emissions-output
elasticity is greater during expansionary phases of the business cycle than it is during contractions - stronger and statistically
significant for the 1990-2012 period for CO2 and consumption-based GHG. This result is in contrast with Sheldon’s (2017)
results for the US (and several advanced economies), which show that emissions tend to fall more during recessions than they
increase during booms.
TABLE II
ELASTICITIES AT THE BRAZILIAN AGGREGATE LEVEL DURING BOOMS AND BUSTS
Coefficient/Period Boom prod-GHG Boom CO2 Boom cons-GHG Bust prod-GHG Bust CO2 1990- Bust cons-GHG
1990-2012 1990-2012 1990-2012 1990-2012 2012 1990-2012
0.201 1.002*** 2.441* 0.224 0.839*** 0.843
β̂ Okun
Note: “prod-“ denote production-based; “cons-“ denote consumption-based. *, **, ***denote statistical significance at the 10, 5, and 1 percent levels,
respectively. Source: author calculations
B. Trends and Cycles: A State Level Perspective

Brazil is a large economy and looking at the country as whole may reveal little information about the extent of the
decoupling between emissions and GDP, since it may obfuscate important trends and cycles at the state level. States have
changed enormously over the last two decades. The regional analysis that follows covers 27 states over the 1995-2013 period.13
A similar analysis was done for other countries, such as China’s provinces (see e.g. Du et al., 2012). Emissions’ data come
from the Climate Observatory (“Observatorio do Clima”) while state-level GDP are retrieved from the Brazilian Institute of
Geography and Statistics (“IBGE”) until 2009 and from Brazil Central Bank from 2010.
13
The states are: Acre, Alagoas, Amazonas, Amapa, Bahia, Ceara, Distrito Federal, Espirito Santo, Goias, Maranhao, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul,
Mato Grosso, Para, Paraiba, Pernambuco, Piaui, Parana, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Note, Rondonia, Roraima, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Sergipe,
Sao Paulo, Tocantins.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
At the state level, 19 states have climate change laws, and at least seven include provisions for the creation of markets for
carbon credits (Point Carbon, 2012). In 2009, Sao Paulo was the first and only state to determine its own emission reduction
target of a 20 percent reduction in emissions relative to 2005 levels by 2020. The city and state of Rio de Janeiro have also
pledged to reduce emissions through sub-national climate change laws. In 2010, the state of Rio passed its Policy on Global
Climate Change and Sustainable Development (PEMC), a policy that sets emissions reduction targets and adaptation goals
through 2030 (Institute of Applied Economic Research, 2011).
Figure 5 displays the trend and cyclical components of real GDP and CO2 emissions, extracted using the HP filter, of the
states in Brazil. As in the case of the aggregate analysis, trend emissions and GDP are generally parallel, suggesting similar
co-movement and, hence, little evidence of decoupling. However, across the business cycle, the synchronization between
emissions and output is not visible for most states. The variance decomposition of each states’ emissions show that, with the
exception of the BK filter, most of the variance in emissions is captured by the variance in trend emissions. 14
14
The residuals from equation (3) for each state across the four different filters is available upon request. It shows that the Kuznets residuals are overall
stationary and, thus, the Kuznets elasticities do not reflect a spurious relationship between trend emissions and trend output.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Figure 5. Trends and Cycles by Brazilian State. Source: author calculations
Table 3 as well as Figures 6 and 7 provide additional insights. The mean Kuznets coefficient across all states is close to
0.1, which can be seen as potentially good news for the long-run decoupling objective. An increase in GDP in the states
Alagoas, Distrito Federal, Espirito Santo, Parana, Pernambuco, Piaui, Rio Grande do Norte, Rio de Janeiro, Santa Catarina,
Sao Paulo e Sergipe is associated with a lower increase in emissions than in states like Amapa and Rio Grande do Sul, where
trend emissions tend to grow at a faster rate than GDP. This result is robust to alternative filters; these states tend to have the
largest Kuznets elasticities across the different filtering methods. On the other hand, hope exists in several states where the
obtained Kuznets elasticities are negative and statistically significant, namely in: Amazonas, Bahia, Maranhao, Mato Grosso,
Mato Grosso do Sul, Para, Rondonia and Tocantins. Although the elasticities derived from the changes version of the model
(equation (1)) tend to be less precisely estimated – most coefficients are statistically insignificant - they are generally closer to
their cyclical elasticities counterparts rather than their respective Kuznets elasticities. In addition, over the business cycle,
several states have emissions growing faster than GDP in boom periods (Maranhao, Mato Grosso and Rio Grande do Sul have
statistically significant cyclical coefficients above 2). While aggregate emissions tended to increase more in booms than in
recessions, this is only the case for a few states, which seem to be driving the overall country-level result. States such as Bahia,
Minas Gerais, Pernambuco, Roraima and Tocantins see their emissions decrease more in recessions than they would increase
during periods of high growth (above trend). Finally, the maps represented by Figures 6 and 7, visually plot each state’s
information.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
TABLE III
CYCLICAL AND KUZNETS ELASTICITIES AT THE STATE LEVEL
Brazilian States ω β hpOkun β hpKuznets β ham
Okun
β ham
Kuznets bust boom
Acre 2.293* 2.552* -0.581*** 1.711 -0.516 2.028 1.347

Alagoas 0.825** 0.791 0.469*** 1.050 0.278*** 0.259 1.349
Amapa -0.954 -0.526 1.144*** -1.107 1.219*** 2.226 -2.577
Amazonas -0.558 -0.207 -0.419*** -0.163 -0.022 -0.252 -0.074
Bahia -0.138 0.385 -0.293*** 0.075 -0.288*** 1.745* -1.515
Ceara 1.212* -0.131 -0.033 -0.532 -0.021 1.762 -0.023
Distrito Federal 0.144 0.214 0.509*** -0.197 0.418*** -0.391* 0.154
Espirito Santo 0.573* 0.200 0.626*** 0.461 0.561*** 0.315 -0.010
Goias 0.001 0.053 -0.037 -0.306 -0.177** 0.647 -0.307
Maranhao -0.773 2.115*** -0.319*** 1.875 -0.191** -3.182 2.791*
Mato Grosso 1.231* -0.619 -1.028*** 1.285 -1.597*** 1.141 2.407**
Mato Grosso do Sul 0.479 0.503 -0.349*** -0.321 -0.449*** 0.393 -1.621
Minas Gerais 0.678* 1.528* -0.053 0.957* -0.057 1.692** -0.940
Para 0.928 1.333** -0.722*** 0.250 -0.718** 0.591 1.120
Paraiba 0.938 0.087 0.020 0.561 0.063 1.590 1.183
Parana 0.064 1.837** 0.118*** -0.074 0.001 1.394 -1.595
Pernambuco 1.926*** 0.762 0.241*** 1.224 0.097 3.430** 0.769
Piaui 0.314 1.037* 0.294*** 0.847 0.437*** 0.453 0.437
Rio Grande do Norte 1.522*** 1.773*** 0.266*** 1.295 0.051 1.849 0.456
Rio Grande do Sul 1.107* 1.005* 1.110*** 0.611 0.769*** 1.331 2.371*
Rio de Janeiro 0.834* 0.762 0.727*** 0.148 0.596** 0.793 1.620
Rondonia 0.507 -0.575 -1.096*** 2.365 -1.147** -0.572 2.831
Roraima -1.673 0.264 -0.076* -0.614 -0.042 3.556** -3.442**
Santa Catarina 0.757 0.026 0.360*** 0.671 -0.045 0.343 -0.637
Sao Paulo 0.996** 0.585 0.571*** 0.398 0.293*** 1.233 0.159
Sergipe 0.325 -0.362 0.380*** 0.162 0.147 -1.726 1.591
Tocantins 0.337 0.962 -0.443*** 0.408 -0.133 3.922** -1.412
Note: ***, **, * denote statistical significance at the 1, 5 and 10 percent levels, respectively. Columns 2 and 3 are from the HP-filtered data. Columns 4 and
5 are from the Hamilton-filtered data. Source: author calculations
Figure 6. Cyclical Elasticities across Brazilian States. Source: author calculations

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Figure 7. Kuznets Elasticities across Brazilian States. Source: author calculations
Finally, the original EKC hypothesis suggested by Grossman and Krueger (1995), which relates the level of environmental
degradation with per capita income, serves as a background for Figure 8. The figure relates the elasticities derived from the
trend relationship between emissions and GDP with real income per capita in 1995(left panel) and in 2013 (right panel). Neither
in earlier nor in more recent years, the fractional-polynomial prediction shows any evidence of a Kuznets behavior. That is, in
Brazilian states we cannot unequivocally say that there exists an inverted U-shaped relationship or that richer states show
higher signs of decoupling vis-à-vis poorer ones.
Correlation coef. = 0.41 Correlation coef. = 0.41

AP RS AP RS
1
RJ RJ
ES ES
SP SP
DF
.5
AL DF
Kuznets coefficients
.5
Kuznets coefficients
SE SC
PI SC
RN
PE PI
PR PR
PB
0
CERR GO MG
0
CE RR GO
MG
MA BA
MS MA MS
TO AM AM
TO
-.5
-.5
AC AC
PA PA
-1
MT
-1
MT
RO RO
5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
Real GDP per capita Real GDP per capita
State Fractional-polynomial prediction State Fractional-polynomial prediction
Figure 8. Kuznets Elasticities and Real GDP Per Capita across Brazilian States. Source: author calculations
V. CONCLUSION
This paper assessed the extent of the decoupling between emissions and real GDP for Brazil and its states by decomposing
both series into their trend and cyclical components. Focusing on the trend relationship, we see little evidence of a decoupling
at the aggregate level. It is true that the Kuznets elasticities for production-based emissions is somewhat lower than that for

polocentre.org
icshge.org
consumption-based emissions. This suggests that Brazil’s role in the world trading system need not be a big barrier to its ability
to reduce emissions growth. We also show that using state level data is a good source of further evidence on the prospects for
decoupling. Although most of the states have positive Kuznets elasticities, we show there exist some with negative and
statistically significant elasticities, pointing to decoupling. That being said, in Brazilian states we cannot unequivocally say
richer states (measured in real income per capita terms) show higher signs of decoupling vis-à-vis poorer ones. The cyclical
elasticities differ across states (but they are overwhelmingly insignificant, suggesting short run acyclicality) but understanding
the drivers of these differences requires further research.
To summarize, giving the size of Brazil’s economy, aiming to put the country on a sustainable carbon trajectory requires
a much more disaggregated look than has been the case in previous research. Indeed, signs of the decoupling between emissions
and GDP are starting to emerge at the state level. At a time when subnational entities are taking the lead in tackling climate
change (such as recently with U.S. states and cities, following the federal decision to pull out of the Paris Agreement), these
results point to states where low-carbon policies could be more effective. Policies taming emissions during business cycle
upswings could further contribute to achieving Brazil’s intended emissions target.
In future work, it would be interesting to link changes in the Kuznets elasticity to the rebalancing of the Brazilian
economy. More specifically, one could explore to what extent the transition from manufacturing to services had contributed
to decoupling growth and GHG emissions. The state-level analysis used in this paper could be well suited for such a question.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I thank Ricardo Marto and Jun Ge for excellent research assistance. I also acknowledge useful discussions with Prakash
Loungani. All remaining errors are my own. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily
represent those of his affiliation.
REFERENCES
Aghion, P. and I. Marinescu (2008), “Cyclical Budgetary Policy and Economic Growth: What Do We Learn from OECD Panel Data?”, NBER
Macroeconomics Annual, Volume 22
Araujo, J., Ghirardi, A. (1987), “Substitution of petroleum products in Brazil”, Energy Policy, 15 (1), 22–39.
Baccini, A. et al. (2012), “Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps”, Nature Climate Change, 2,
182-185.
Bacon, R.W., Bhattacharya, S. (2007), “Growth and CO2 emissions: how do different countries fare?”, World Bank Environment Department, Climate
Change Series. Paper No. 113. World Bank, Washington
Barona, E., Ramankutty, N., Hyman G., Coomes O. (2010), “The role of pasture and soybean in deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon”, Environmental
Research Letters 5.
Canadell, J. and Raupach, M. (2008), “Managing forests for climate change mitigation”, Science, 320, 1456-7.
Cerri, C. (2010), “Brazilian greenhouse gas emissions: the importance of agriculture and livestock”, World Congress of Soil Science, Australia.
Chakravarty, D. and Mandal, S. (2016), “Estimating the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality for the BRICs economies - a
dynamic panel data approach. Journal of Developing Areas, 50(5), 119-130.
Cogley, T., and J. M. Nason (1995), “Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter on Trend and Difference Stationary Time Series: Implications for Business
Cycle Research,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 19, 253–278.
Cohen, G., J. Jalles, P. Loungani, and R. Marto (2018), “Emissions and Growth: Trends and Cycles in a Globalized World”, IMF Working Paper No.
17/191, Washington
Csereklyei, Z. and D. Stern (2015), “Global Energy Use: Decoupling or Convergence," Energy Economics, 51, 633–641.
Du, L., C. Wei, and S. Cai (2012), “Economic Development and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China: Provincial Panel Data Analysis," China Economic
Review, 23, 371–384.
Freitas, C., and Kaneko, S. (2011a), “Decomposing the decoupling of CO2 emissions and economic growth in Brazil”, Ecological Economics, 70, 1458-
1469.
Freitas, L., and Kaneko, S. (2011b), “Decomposition of CO2 emissions change from energy consumption in Brazil: challenges and policy implications”,
Energy Policy, 39, 1495-1504
Gouvello, C. (2010), “Brazil low-carbon country case study”, World Bank Group, Washington.
Grossman, G.M. and A.B. Krueger (1995), “Economic Growth and The Environment," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, 353–377.
Hamilton, J. (2017), “Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," NBER WP 23429.
Harvey, A. C., and A. Jaeger (1993), “Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 8, 231–247.
Henriques, S. and Borowiecki, K. (2014), “The Drivers of Long-Run CO2 Emissions: A Global Perspective Since 1800”, Discussion Papers on Business
and Economics, University of Southern Denmark, 13/2014.
Hodrick, R.J. and E.C. Prescott (1981), “Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," working paper, Northwestern University.
Hodrick, R.J., and E.C. Prescott (1997), “Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29(1), 1–16.
Hosonuma, N., M. Herold, V. De Sy, R. De Fries, M. Brockhaus, L. Verchot, A. Angelsen, and E. Romijn (2012), “An Assessment of Deforestation and
Forest Degradation Drivers in Developing Countries.” Environmental Research Letters, 7
Institute for Applied Economic Research 2011. Climate Change in Brazil: economic, social, and regulatory aspects. Available at: www.ipea.gov.br
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2006. Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. In: Eggleston, H.S., Buendia, L., Miwa,
K., Ngara, T., Tanabe, K. (Eds.), Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme. IGES, Japan
Jakob, M., Haller, M., and R. Marschinski (2012), “Will history repeat itself? Economic convergence and convergence in energy use patterns,” Energy
Economics, 34, 95-104.
Kearsley, A. and M. Riddel (2010). “A Further Inquiry into the Pollution Haven Hypothesis and the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Ecological Economics,
69(4), 905–919.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Kindermann, G., Obersteiner, M., Sohngen, B., Sathaye, J., Andrasko, K., Rametsteiner, E., Schlamadinger, B., Wunder, S. and Beach, R. (2008), “Global
cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation”, Proceedings National Academy of Sciences, USA, 105, 10302-7.
Kojima, M., Bacon, R. (2009), “Changes in CO2 emissions from energy use: a multi-country decomposition analysis”. World Bank, Extractive Industries
for Development Series 11. World Bank, Washington.
Lenzen, M., Kanemoto, K., Moran, D., and A. Geschke (2012), “Mapping the Structure of the World Economy,” Environmental Science Technology,
46(15), 8374-8381.
Lenzen, M., Moran, D., Kanemoto, K., and A. Geschke (2013), “Building Eora: A Global Multi-regional InputOutput Database at High Country and Sector
Resolution,” Economic Systems Research, 25(1), 20-49.
Luukkanen, J., Kaivo-oja, J. (2002), “Meaningful participation in global climate policy? Comparative analysis of the energy and CO2 efficiency dynamics
of key developing countries”. Global Environmental Change 12, 117–126
Machado G., Schaeffer R. (2005), “Energy and economic development. In: Brazil: a country profile on sustainable energy development”. IAEA.
Machado, G., Schaeffer, R., and Worrell, E. (2001), “Energy and carbon embodied in the international trade of Brazil: an input-output
approach”, Ecological Economics, 39(3), 409–424.
McKinsey & Company, 2012. Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy for Brazil. Accessed at: https://www.mckinsey.com.
MCT (Ministry of Science and Technology), 2009. Brazilian Inventory of Anthropogenic Emissions and Removals of Greenhouse Gases (General
Information and Preliminary Values). The Ministry of Science and Technology, Climate Change, National Communication, Brasilia, MCT.
Medeiros, H.S., Dezidera, D.A. (2006), “Emissões de CO2 na Economia Brasileira: uma Análise de Decomposição”, Revista Brasileira de Energia 12 (2),
1–8.
Mendonça, M., Gutierez, M. (2000), “O efeito estufa e o setor energético Brasileiro”. Texto para discussão nº 719, Instituto de Pesquisa Economica
Aplicada: IPEA, Rio de Janeiro
Melike E., Tahsin B. (2014), “The relationship among oil, natural gas and coal consumption and economic growth in BRICTS (Brazil, Russian, India,
China, Turkey and South Africa) countries”, Energy, 65, 134-44.
Mulder, P. and de Groot, L. (2011), “Energy intensity across sectors and countries: empirical evidence 1980-2005, CPB Discussion Paper No. 171
OECD – Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2002. Indicators to Measure Decoupling of Environmental Pressure from Economic
Growth. Sustainable Development. SG/SD (2002)
Pao H. and Tsai C. (2011), “Multivariate granger causality between CObb3 emissions, energy consumption, FDI and GDP: evidence from a panel of BRIC
countries”. Energy, 36(1), 685-693.
Pao, H. and C. Tsai (2010), “CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in BRIC Countries”, Energy Policy, 38(12), 7850–7860.
Peters, G., Marland, G., Le Quere, C., Boden, T., Canadaell, J., and Raupach, M. (2012), “Rapid growth in Co2 emissions after the 2008-09 global financial
crisis”, Nature Climate Change, 2, 2-4
Point Carbon, 2012. Rio’s government postpones launch of carbon markets. Available at: pointcarbon.com
REN21 (2012). Renewables 2012 Global Status Report. Accessed at: www.ren21.net.
Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Schellnhuber, H.J., Alcamo, J., Barker, T., Kammen, D.M., Leemans, R., Liverman, D., Munasinghe, M., Osman-Elasha, B.,
Stern, N., Wæver, O. (2009), “Synthesis Report from Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions”, Copenhagen 2009, Second Edition
University of Copenhagen, Denmark
Schlicht, E., (1985), “Isolation and Aggregation in Economics”, Berlin-Heidelberg-New York-Tokyo: Springer-Verlag. 22.
Schlicht, E. (2003). “Estimating time-varying coefficients with the VC program”. Discussion Paper 2003-06. University of Munich
Schlicht, E. and Ludsteck, J., (2006), “Variance Estimation in a Random Coefficients Model”, IZA Discussion Papers 2031, Institute for the Study of Labor
(IZA).
Sheldon, T. (2017), “Asymmetric Effects of the Business Cycle on Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Energy Economics, 61, 289–297.
Tamazian, A., J. P. Chousa, and C. Vadlamannati (2009), “Does higher economic and financial development lead to environmental degradation: evidence
from the BRIC countries,” Energy Policy, 37, 246–253.
UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), 2010. Decisions of the COP and the COP/CMP. Copenhagen Accord.
FCCC/CP/2009/11.
Wachsmann, U., Wood, R., Lenzen, M. and Schaeffer, R. (2009), “Structural decomposition of energy use in Brazil from 1970 to 1996”, Applied Energy,
578-587.
Wendy N. Chang T., Roula I., Rangan G. (2014), “The nexus of electricity consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in the BRICS countries”.
Energy Policy, 66, 359-68.
Wu, L., Sifeng, L., Dinglin, L., Fang, Z., Xu, H. (2015), “Modelling and forecasting CO2 emissions in the BRICS countries using a novel multi-variable
grey model”, Energy, 79, 489-495.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Sustainability and Sectoral Stability in Africa’s Natural Resources

Utilization
Khaleel, A.G.,* and Chakrabarti, M.
Department of Economics & Int’l Business, School of Business Studies, Sharda University, Greater Noida, UP, India;
*
ahmad.khaleel@fud.edu.ng
Abstract—Natural resources utilization not only in Africa but world over is being measured though World Bank’s
sustainability measures like the Extended Genuine Savings II – EGS II, the El Serafy based Adjusted Net Savings – ANS
method that are based on Hartwick, Hoteling rules and recently the El-Serafy methods of calculating resources rent. This, we
argued, attributed to most studies in the area generally concluding that most developing resource rich nations are exhibiting
slow growth over the years due to a number of different reasons. Inadequate understanding of these measures as well as how
they weakly and unclearly relate the resource sector to the rest of the economy is argued to be amongst the reasons for the
poor economic performance of these economies. The paper, in an attempt to contribute to a better understanding of the
intricacies surrounding natural resource-growth relations, suggested extending the analysis of measuring natural resources
utilization. This can be achieved by including additional measure of not only sustainability (substitutability) but also a
measure of sectoral stability (measured using Dutch Disease Syndrome-DDS hypothesis and index). DDS index relates the
sectors of the economy in such a way that brings out the sectoral interconnectedness of the resources-rich economies. This
offer a more elaborate perspective of natural resources sustainability in connection to sectoral stability for enhanced policy
making and institutional efficiency in resource-rich African countries.
Keywords—natural resources, Dutch disease, sustainability, sectoral stability
I. INTRODUCTION
OST of the empirical studies on economics of natural resources pointed to the predominant phenomenon in
almost all natural resources rich nations; i.e. their inability to experience significant growth and development
(Sachs & Warner, 2001). This is commonly known as resource-curse with Dutch Disease Syndrome – DDS as its most
predominant determinant, Sachs & Warner (1995). On the other hand, studies on developed natural resources rich nations
showed a different story despite the existence of natural resources in their respective economies, notably Russia, Canada and
Norway (Rick van der Ploeg, 2011). This clear distinction will superficially and deeply (if backed with sound empirical
analysis) answer the fundamental question usually raised in resource-curse studies: is natural resource a curse or a blessing?
Different views and explanations are offered for the differences in the growth experiences of developed and developing
resource-rich countries as well as distinguishing the real causes of the unfavorable growth patterns from the presence of
resource abundance. Palma (2005) observed four types of de-industrialization in both developing and developed nations
namely; normal, upward, down-ward and reverse as an expansion of this explanation beyond only natural resources. This is
supported by Lam and Wantchekon (2002)’s pointing to the political environment and elite’s behavior in the management of
the natural resources as reasons for stagnation in resources-rich developing nations. Bourdet and Falck (2006) found a sort
of adverse effect of remittances on the competitiveness of tradable sector in Cabo Verde. Bevan and Adam (2003) and
McKinley, T. (2009) also found similar effects as sector specific productivity biases resulting from scaling up of official
development assistance. Therefore, these studies as well as Mehlum, Moene and Torvik (2006) may seem to validate the
consideration that proper management of the natural resources through efficient and effective institutions and policies have
the potential to trigger the needed societal changes. Nonetheless, the resource-rich countries should not take this for granted,
else it will qualify as the so-called “wishful thinking” ascription by economists. This is because, despite these explanations
and distinctions between natural resources and causes of poor economic performance, there seems to be no significant move
towards changing the growth experiences of these countries.
It is however more true within Africa’s context that, efficiently managed natural resources have the potential capacity of
triggering the needed positive changes, giving the continent an advantage in the process of growth and development. This is
because, as established with the experiences of the few more advanced resource-rich nations, well managed resources can
undoubtedly provide the needed initial stimuli that can set the economy in motion by their potentiality to be used in producing
different forms of capital, namely; human, social and produced – substitutability. Substitutability (the ability of one resource,
though with negative elasticity of substitution, to be converted to another, i.e. natural capital to human, social or produce
capital) is the back born of sustainability (Lawn, 2003). Sustainability, as we shall see later, is being incorporated at the center
of every human activity, to ensure the continuous optimal use of environmental resources in a manner that ensures inter-
generational equity (Hartwick, 1977). From the mix contexts of substitutability, sustainability, growth and development being
set here, the use of certain amount natural resources should be able to produce an equivalent growth and development
outcomes (Lawn, 2003 Hartwick, 1977). However, to the dismay of many, despite the fact that there is a significant use of
these natural resources, generating in the year 2015 an average 10% of African GDP (World Bank, 2015), the needed change
did not happen as expected. An additional explanation for this poor development might be, subject further verification,
inadequate understanding of these concepts and principles. Compounded by poor institutions and policies in these countries,

polocentre.org
icshge.org
the growing numbers of internal and external challenges keep clouding the hope for societal betterment in the continent. This
is because, as stated earlier the process does not start and maintains itself automatically, it needs to be managed and sustained
very well to have a good result and outcome as expected in line with the needs of the well guided societal progress and
development. Such a level of efficient resources management calls for a greater understanding of the intricacies of sustainable
natural resources utilization as they relate to different sectors of the economy. This brings us to the question of sustainable
natural resources utilization in Africa as means to sectoral stability that leads societal change that will eventually spur progress
in terms growth and development.
The main aim here is to contribute to a better understanding of the intricacies surrounding natural resource-growth relations.
This is done by furthering the growing discourse of ascertaining the level of sustainability of natural resources utilization and
extending it to the area of sectoral stability. The objective is to offer a more elaborate perspective of natural resources
sustainability in connection to sectoral stability for enhanced policy making and institutional efficiency in resource-rich
African countries. This is achieved by first taking a conceptual overview of substitutability and sustainability as well as the
ongoing debate in the study area. The study then turns to measures natural resources and income sustainability in Africa with
a brief review of the mainstream World Bank’s measures of sustainability (Extended Genuine Savings II - EGS II, the El
Serafy based Adjusted Net Savings - ANS method) and application of the latest in the analysis. Thereafter, the scope of
analysis is expanded to include the question of sectoral stability (measured here using DDS hypothesis and index –
interpretations given in section on measures of sustainability and sectoral stability). An elaboration on DDS, EGS-II, El-
Serafy based ANS and their methods is given in section on measures of sustainability and sectoral stability.
II. UNDERSTANDING SUSTAINABILITY AND SUBSTITUTABILITY

In answering to the question; ‘What is Sustainability?’ using an article with the same title, Kuhlman & Farrington (2010)
traced its origin to the German word for sustainability ‘Nachhaltigkeit’, first used with this meaning in 1713. They also traced
the mainstream use of the term to the UN World Commission on Environment and Development (Brundtland) Report of
1987. The original meaning of sustainability as a policy concept coined for forestry to mean; never to harvest beyond the
new growth from the forest, have shifted since the first mainstream use (Kuhlman & Farrington, 2010). The result is in what
is now known as the three dimensions of sustainability, namely; social, economic and environmental. The original meaning
of sustainability can be argued to precisely carry the underlying principles of both Hotelling and Hartwick rules. Hotelling
rule is the fundamental no-arbitrage condition that; (the net price of an exhaustive resource must grow at a rate that equal the
interest rate), every efficient resource utilization path has to meet (Asheim, Buchholz & Withagen, 2007). While Hartwick
rule on the other hand prescribes investing all profits or rents from exhaustible resources in reproducible capital such as
machines (Asheim, 2011). It is worthy of note that, Hotelling rule’s more relevant and simplest application is that of cake-
eating economy where consumption results from resource stock depletion. On the other hand, Hartwick rule was formulated
for a production economy, where a combination of natural and man-made capital determines consumption at any point in
time, implying substitutability between the two. There is however a strong argument against substitutability by an alternative
principle of complementarity between natural and produced capital denying all possibilities of physical conversion between
the two. Notwithstanding, Hartwick and Hotelling rules as well as substitutability principle create further understanding that
natural resources give rise to economic rents because they are not produced. Produced goods and services expand supply
through competitive forces until economic profits are driven to zero, while natural resources, often in fixed supply, command
returns well in excess of their cost of production – resource rents. Rents from non-renewable resources indicate the liquidation
of a country's natural capital stock, which if use to support current consumption rather than to invest in new capital to replace
what is being used up, they are in effect borrowing against their future. They also lead to the current debate by providing the
needed foundation for weak sustainability. Weak sustainability is based on the idea of substitutability between natural and
man-made capital. It is concerned with the ability to convert finite income from natural resources rents into an infinite income
through investment of the finite income in produced capital that replaces the used up natural (resources) capital. Pearce et al
(1989) best prescribes it as “the next generation should inherit a stock of wealth, comprising man-made assets and
environmental assets, no less than the stock inherited by the previous generation”. While strong sustainability on the other
hand, is concerned with complementarity nature of natural and produced capital by ensuring that the existing available natural
resources are used in balanced way. That is, utilization is balanced between current and future consumption of the resource,
so that the former poses no threat in any way to the later, i.e. same natural resource is used by both current and future
generations. In the words of Pearce et al (1989): “the next generation should inherit a stock of environmental assets no less
than the stock inherited by the previous generation.”

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Economy Economy
Figure 1. Strong and Weak Sustainability. Source: Sketch Bubble (2017)
Figure 1 clearly indicates that, weak sustainability is concerned with replacing the consumed resources and damage done to
the environment in the process of societal and economic functions. Strong sustainability is recommending organizing societal
and economic functions in accordance with the requirement of maintaining the environment, devoid of any significant
damage. However, these conditions as opined by Kuhlman & Farrington (2010) obscure the real contradiction between
goals of socio-economic welfare and environmental conservation. While contemplating the extent of substitutability of
natural and man-made capital established by the Hartwick rule, they have the view that weak and strong sustainability
should be complements rather than alternatives. In line with this view, Chang, Y. (2011) in an unpublished work titled
Path towards Strong Sustainability attempted a simulation of what he called Hybrid Sustainability Model that dynamically
bring together weak and strong sustainability along with population growth and technological progress. This debate is
however not within the scope of this brief; the analysis that follows is limited to the weak sustainability. To establish the
sustainability or otherwise of natural resources utilization, wealth accounting is usually employed to determine the
contribution of both intangible (produced) and natural (resources) capital to economic growth. Through this process, the
transformation of natural capital into intangible capital is observed as a measure of weak sustainability. On this background,
the most widely used measures of weak sustainability (ANS) along with an alternative one (DDS Index) are employed in
section 4 for the purpose of creating more elaborate clarity about sustainability and sectoral stability for the African countries’
situations.
III. NATURAL RESOURCES AND INCOME SUSTAINABILITY IN AFRICA

There are several studies that attempted to establish the sustainability of natural resources utilization in Africa and its various
countries either in comparison with other regions and countries or within the continent. Sopp and Leiman (2017) by the
African Development Bank is among the most recent studies that checked the veracity of the dependence of the Africa’s
income on primary commodities and the performance of its non-commodity sectors in the past decade. They calculated an
index of sustainability risk for some selected African economies and found all the 8 African countries studied are at some
positive level of risk based on the index, with Equatorial Guinea and South Africa being the most and least at risk respectively.
They further highlighted the relevance of economic diversification in limiting the exposure of resource rich economies.
However, their study is restricted to major mineral resources contributing well above 10% to GDP. It is also based on the
more advanced El Serafy method of computing resource rents, which has advantages over those of the older (EGS II)
measures of sustainability. Their study also overlooked the fact that, there are different natural resources in different countries
that have the potential to generate internal ill effects on sectoral stability. As such, there is the need to expand the scope of
this analysis, with additional or some modifications to the methodology. This enables the study cover more natural resources
and African countries, if not all, on the basis of resources utilization sustainability and sectoral stability for intergenerational
equity and welfare. It also compliments the methodology of the World Bank by redirecting or including within the focus of
analysis, other methods or measures. Such methods and measures give additional perspectives in the form of more detailed
linkages between the resources sector and other sectors of the economy. This will enable African policy makers to appreciate
the sectoral interconnectedness within economies in relation to ensuring sustainability and sectoral stability, as well as to
effectively use policy measures in achieving the same.
IV. MEASURES OF SUSTAINABILITY & SECTORAL STABILITY

At least in the past, there seems to be no general agreement on the best measure of sustainability. This is because, the one
used prior by the World Bank in 1997 (EGS II) have been challenged as being based on a method for computing user costs
from resource exploitation that is challenged by two other competing ones and is found to be inferior to one of these rivals.
Hence, the study uses the old World Bank’s EGS II and the new El Serafy based ANS with additional measure (DDS Index)
as an alternative vis complimentary way of looking at the level of not only sustainability but sectoral stability in resources-
rich African economies. The fundamental difference between EGS-II’s and El Serafy’s methods of computing resource rents

polocentre.org
icshge.org
is a shift from a static to a dynamic system of resources measurement and accounting by the introduction of time into wealth
analysis and accounting (Neumayer, 2000).
Among all the World Bank’s Genuine Savings measures of sustainability, the Extended Genuine Savings II – EGS II is the
closest to measure of weak sustainability that has jointly satisfied both the Hotelling and the Hartwick rules (Neumayer,
1999). Hotelling's rule is concerned with maximizing economic rent (the maximum of which is known as Hotelling or scarcity
rent) while depleting a non-renewable natural resource by valuing the resource as a function of time. Hartwick's rule suggests
the exact level of investment needed in produced capital to adequately offset the depletion of non-renewable resources stocks.
It is, thus, a necessary, but not sufficient condition, for countries to have positive genuine savings to achieve weak
sustainability, as continuous negative EGS II rates will result in falling level of living. However, the main area of weakness
of EGS II has to do with the procedure of computing resource rents, which uses (Hotelling rent) except for the use of average
costs instead of marginal extraction costs and also did not include resource discoveries in the computations. In addressing
these challenges, the El Serafy method is resorted to as the most superior method by quite a number of studies.
This new World Bank’s measure of weak sustainability, adjusted net savings ANS, adopted the ‘El Serafy’s method in
computing the resource rents. The ANS, also called genuine saving, is defined as national net saving adjusted for the value
of resource depletion and environmental degradation and credited for education expenditures (a proxy for investment in
human capital)”. It measures the combine effects of changes in saving and investment on the change in a country’s national
wealth. It is simply interpreted as: “if ANS is negative, then we are running down our capital stocks and future well-being
will suffer; if ANS is positive, then we are adding to wealth and future well-being”. Various categories of ANS are annually
reported in the list of World Bank Development Indicators. For the purpose of this analysis, the distinct ANS selected from
the many available is Adjusted Net Savings, including particulate emission damage (% of GNI). Among the limitations and
exceptions in this method are addition of public expenditure on education to savings and the exclusion of expenditure on
private education for data limitations in most countries. Figure 2 depicts the 2015 ANS for African countries. It can be
observed that, while the African average is slightly negative, that of SSA is by far in excess of -10%, with 9 (50%) of the 18
countries that have substantial values being positive (weakly sustainable) and the other 9 negative (not sustainable). But the
overall picture is negative (not sustainable at least on average) in the sense that, there are more negative values than positive
ones. However, these conclusions, as noted earlier, are not sure proof of the weak sustainability, as positive savings are
necessary but not a sufficient condition of weak sustainability. Equally so, it has been empirically observed that, investing
rents is not a surety for strong growth. As over half of rents earned in the 70’s were invested in domestic projects, but no
strong and sustainable economic growth occurred. Therefore, an additional measure of sustainability-vis-sectoral-stability in
the name of Dutch-Disease Index is used, computed and the results compared with that of ANS.
Dutch Disease Syndrome - DDS along with its income, resource movement as well as spill-over-loss effects identified in the
DDS hypothesis can be argued to offer the most detailed and comprehensive arguments in explaining what researchers come
to call “resource curse”. The term was coined in 1977 by The Economist to describe the structural turbulences experienced
by The Netherlands’ (Holland) economy. Its more hypothetically elaborate depiction in a core model was developed in a
number of studies over the years Corden and Neary (1982), Corden (1984), Krugman (1987), Matsuyama (1992) and Bucuane
and Mulder (2007). It is effective in linking causes to their eventual effects within and outside the economy, while elaborately
describing the ugly manifestations of the poor state of resource rich/dependent countries despite their endowment in simple
and non-technical ways that can be easily understood. Another consideration is that, though not established empirically, these
DDS effects do not differentiate between different types of natural resources, nor from one country or sector to another.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Figure 2. Adjusted Net Savings for African Countries. Source: World Bank (2015)
DDS index was developed by Kyle (2005) from the previous works through modification of sectoral classification to check the

polocentre.org
icshge.org
extent of sectoral turbulence in oil rich economies. The index (Eq. 1) is defined as:
DD = (SNag + SNma) – (Sag + Sma) (1)
where: SNag and SNma = “normal” percentage GDP shares of the traded sectors
(agriculture and manufacturing), while
Sag and Sma = GDP shares of these same sectors in the natural resources
exporting countries.
Figure 3. DDS Index for Nigeria and Angola. Source: Adopted and extended from Khaleel (2012) using World Bank data
A positive index is interpreted to indicate sectoral distortions; hence a negative index is more preferred as it indicates country’s
sectoral stability. Kyle (2005) found that, Angolan economy is among the most severely distorted of any included in previous
analyses, as oil revenue and the real exchange rate appreciation that it has caused has resulted in serious distortion of the economy
even beyond that caused by war. Khaleel (2012) also computed DDS Index for Nigeria, the result of which along with that of
Angola is represented here in Figure 3, and appended with ANS. The limited data available for Angola showed the level of
sectoral disruption, which is by far worse than that obtained in Nigeria if not for a year. Nigeria briefly experienced higher level
of sectoral distortion (positive DDS index) with a difference of 0.08% over Angola in 1991. However, on the side of
sustainability, the story is similar in the sense that, Angola showed a very high level of unsustainability with ANS as low as -
183.53% in the year 1995. This was followed by a sudden break of positive sustainability, with an index of 14.01% in 1996, that
short lived for only that year when Nigeria recorded a negative ANS of -20.57%, below that of Angola. Nigeria on the other
hand, is similarly not sustainable with the most part of the ANS being negative, with few spikes of weak sustainability in the
years 2000, 2006 and 2008.
While the ANS is a clear description of true measure of weak sustainability and the channels or parameters it affects, it does not
give the whole picture of the intricate linkages between these parameters as well as their causative agents as did in the DDS
hypothesis. One good way this can be made very clear in a complementary manner is using the DDS Index to showcase the
situation of African economies along with the ANS. Therefore, this study has, as done for Nigeria and Angola (see Figure 3),
computed DDS for Africa as a whole, as it served as a yardstick for measuring the extent of DDS in African countries because
it measures how much are these economies distorted as a result of resources discoveries or their resultant and periodic price
shocks.
To arrive at the “normal” average percentage sectoral composition of GDP of non-natural resources exporting, low-income
African economies as a base, the study considers both the shares of total natural resources rents in GDP and that of natural
resources exports in total exports as depicted in Figure 4.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Figure 4. Total Natural Resources Rents (% of GNI) & Natural Resource Exports Shares of Total Exports for African Countries (2015).
Source: World Bank (2015)

polocentre.org
icshge.org
It can be seen that, given the unavailability of data for some African countries, there are significant differences between both
shares at both continental and sub-regional levels. For example, after sorting the shares of exports as depicted in Figure 5,
Algeria, Angola, Nigeria, Sudan, Congo Rep. and Gabon are the highest 6 countries having above 60% share of exports as
natural resources amongst the countries with at least 10% exports share.
Figure 5. African Countries with Highest Natural Resources Exports Shares. Source: World Bank (2015)
However, when the focus is placed on shares of natural resources rents in GDP, the countries with highest shares (twice higher
than African average) include Liberia, Congo DR, Togo, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Congo Rep., Guinea Bissau and Burkina Faso
(see Figure 6).
Figure 6. African Countries with Highest Shares of Natural Resources Rents in GDP.
Source: World Bank (2015)
Therefore, the study considers only countries that have less than the averages in rents and less than 10% of exports from natural
resources as having the normal sectoral shares of economies devoid of natural resources influence. Based on these, average
normal sectoral shares of those economies are taken as presented in Table 1 for our DDS Index computation. Using these
average shares and the DDS Index function, the DDS Index for Africa as a whole is computed. The average normal percentage
share of tradable sectors (agriculture and manufacture) put together in non-resources exporting and low-income African
country is 20.96%, while that of the world is 54.9%.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
TABLE I
NON-NATURAL RESOURCES EXPORTING COUNTRIES’ AVERAGE SECTORAL SHARES OF GDP
Sectors Global Shares of GDP (%) Africa’s Shares of GDP (%)
Agriculture 30 13.43
Manufacturing 8 07.53
Services & Construction 54 69.68
Mining & Energy 8 9.36
Source: Extracted/Computed from 2015 World Bank Data, Khaleel (2012)
From the computed index using the Africa’s “normal” average sectoral shares of GDP, it can be seen that, both the continent
and Sub-Saharan African region have shown a negative sign of DDS, i.e. there are no serious sectoral disruptions in resources-
rich countries when compared to the non-resource dominant economies in the continent. This means that, natural resources
discoveries as well as fluctuations in their prices over the years do not have any significant effect on the sectoral stability of
the economies utilizing natural resources when compared to those not having natural resources. However, as can be seen in
Figure 7, the index continues to move towards zero as the years passed by indicating a growing sectoral distortions with the
index moving from -13% in 1982 to slightly less than -4% in 2007. Even though it improved to -7% in 2009, the index keeps
hovering around that value to settle at -5% in 2016. Similarly, the index for SSA exhibited similar pattern, only that it is lower
than that of Africa at all time. It reached its highest point of more than -19% in 1988 and continued to fluctuate in a steadily
upward trend, reaching lowest point of -6% in 2010 and 2011 before rising and falling again in the subsequent years to reach
almost -7% in 2016.
Throughout the period depicted for ANS (see Figure 7), Africa as a whole had negative values except for the years 1992 and
2007, showing a clear case of severe unsustainability. The duration went for over two decades, a period long enough to ensure
falling level living as explained by The World Bank.
Figure 7. Adjusted Net Savings & DDS Index for African Countries and Sub-Saharan Africa. Computed using African normal GDP shares of non-traded
sectors. Source: World Bank (2015)
However, this (unsustainable) result is contrary to that of the sectoral stability measured by DDS index values for Africa
depicted together on the same figure, which showed a very sound sectoral stability for the continent throughout the period.
Further observation revealed that, the good DDS index for Africa is only real within the continent, because, the moment the
same index is computed with global average normal sectoral shares, it is a complete different story.
The new results, computed using the global normal sectoral shares of GDP (see Figure 8), showed that the continent has been
experiencing a positive DDS Index for the last three decades, while the SSA was having a negative DDS until 1987, and was
negative in 1988 and 1991. This gives some insights into the dismal performance of the region economically and otherwise.
One may argue that there are recently a number recorded achievements, yes, but when you look beyond the cumulative figures,
the picture changes entirely as a significant share of the growth is experienced or enjoyed by a negligible percentage of the
population. This is the essence of introducing additional measure to give a broader perspective as to the happenings within the
economies. The ANS reveals the fact that, African economies are unsustainable and need to find a way to increase expenditure
on the listed components (education etc.) used in computing it to at least ensure sustainability. However, as discussed earlier,
a growing number of studies have found that, even when that is done, the sustainability expected will not be ensured, as there
are cases of negative ANS and positive balance of trade due to higher resources price (false or temporary sustainability). Such
a situation is also found here; negative ANS with economic sectoral stability at the continental level.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Figure 8. Adjusted Net Savings & DDS Index for African Countries and Sub-Saharan Africa Computed using global normal GDP shares of non-traded
sectors. Source: World Bank (2015)
The incomplete nature of the picture painted by ANS can also be further appreciated by considering the relevance of sectoral
stability in ensuring not only sustainability, but also improving quality of life and living standards. For instance, countries that
have larger sectoral GDP shares of economy where employment is less are bound to have a higher percentage of people living
in poverty. Agriculture and manufacture (with less automation) are the sectors that employ more citizens, yet in most of the
resources-rich countries of Africa, these sectors are small and receive less attention compared to the resources sector that
employs less share of the labor force. This argument, as backed by the DDS hypothesis and its sectoral stability analysis, stands
to give more elaborate and accurate justification for the nature of performance of these countries not only in Africa but world
over.
Nevertheless, investment in the sectors with most employment and higher demand though may possibly be having lower profits
is among the suggested measures by economists over the years for effectively curbing the DDS. Also included within these
measures are democratic, consensual and transparent processes, stabilization funds, refusing to borrow in good years, increased
national savings, slowed real exchange rate appreciation, boost competition in manufacturing and agricultural sectors,
investment in education and infrastructure.
BOX 1. AN ILLUSTRATION OF EFFECTS OF INVESTMENT IN MANUFACTURE ON DDS INDEX VIS-A-VIS SECTORAL STABILITY AND SUSTAINABILITY
Given a hypothetical scenario of DDS index of 25%, an investment in the refining of the crude oil into petroleum products, for example, can trigger a
reduction in the DDS index by the transfer of the similar GDP share of natural resources that is converted into manufactured petroleum products. If
the share of natural resources is 69% and that of manufacture is 7%, and other sectors took the remaining 24% (Agriculture 13% and Services 11%),
an investment in crude refining that reduce the GDP share of natural resources by 10%, will result in an increase in the share of manufacturing and
thus, an improvement in DDS Index by same percentage. The hypothetical DDS Index of 25% for the previous year (of investment) will come down
to 15% in the present year, taking the global shares used in the computation as depicted here.
30 Change in DDS Index

25
Percentage
20
15
10
5
0
Year 1 Year 2
Box 1 gives a hypothetical illustration of how DDS Index portrays the interlinkages between different tradable sectors of the
economy and also how investment in one non-resources sector can bring about changes in the Index as well as the sustainability
of resources utilization and sectoral stability on the economy. By careful observation, it can be seen that, countries that have
achieve sustainability in some ways (converted their natural endowments into some form of produced capital) utilized a

polocentre.org
icshge.org
different mixture of some of the above and sometimes including more measures.
V. CONCLUSION
The inability of African countries to convert their natural endowment into meaningful growth and development has been
analyzed from the perspective of the measures mostly relied upon as the indicators of sustainability. It is found that, while
being the most suitable among the World Bank’s measures of sustainability, ANS and its predecessors do not give the full
picture of the economic processes and sectoral interlinkages within the economy. This necessitated the inclusion of additional
measure of not only sustainability, but also sectoral stability, in the form of relationships between sectors of the economy as
they relate to factors of production. This is because, sectoral stability gives additional information about the performance of
different sectors of the economy, particularly the non-natural resources tradable sectors, which directly enhances sustainability.
There is presence of serious ambiguity in the DDS results computed using Africa’s normal sectoral shares of traded sectors as
it showed absence of sustainability with sound sectoral stability in Africa’s natural resources utilization. The prevalence of
both negative values of ANS and DDS index was neither an indication of sustainability nor sectoral balance and stability,
rather it is ambiguous. It may be a clear sign that, even the non-resource exporting African countries are exhibiting some
features of DDS infected economies at a level significantly higher than the resources-rich African countries. This claim is
further supported by the second DDS Index results computed using the global normal sectoral shares of traded sectors, which
brought to light the extent to which Africa resource exporting countries are distorted. A fact reinforced by the countries’
decades long continues negative ANS values of weak unsustainability, which no doubt explains the ever clouding situation of
the African economies despite the significant use of their natural blessings. It also confirmed the relevance of within the
economy sectoral interconnectedness in ensuring sustainability of resources utilization and sectoral stability for
intergenerational equity and welfare.
These more detailed explanations of the combined measures of economic sustainability and sectoral stability will undoubtedly
equip policy makers with more elaborate perspective for handling such issues. If we consider the ANS alone, it only tells us
about sustainability from the perspective of required amount of investment from a given amount of resources earnings. Even
though it included expenditures on education and other projects intended for the conversion of natural into produced capital,
the specificity required as to where or which sectors these investments will be more effective in is absent. Hence the relevance
of incorporating the DDS Index and its sectoral stability analysis as an indicator of the interlinkages between sectors within
the economy that can appropriately be targeted for better economic outcomes. The policy implication of these findings is that,
much of the investments needed to ensure sustainability need to take place in the non-resources traded sectors with significantly
high share of employment (manufacture and agriculture) of the African economies. That is to say, there is the need to shift
investment emphasis or focus in favor of the non-resources traded sectors to balance their strength for purposes of ensuring
more sectoral stability and sustainability. Furthermore, there is the need to further investigate international effects of DDS,
particularly the type shown here in this study.
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
Agriculture Manufacture Services & Construction Mining & Energy
Natural Resources Rich Countries Non-Natural Resources Rich Countries
Figure 9. Africa’s average share of economic sectors (2015). Source: World Bank Development Indicators (2016)
VI. FUTURE STUDIES IN THE AREA

Moreover, a deeper look within the continent can as well reveal additional interesting findings, especially with the Africa’s
DDS index being negative when computed using local average sectoral shares. One of which is that, though it may require
further analysis to ascertain the reasons behind such an abnormality, it appears that, as par as sectoral balances and stability
are concerned, resources-rich countries are performing better than non-resources-rich countries in Africa. Figure 9 showed the
average sectoral shares of the economies of Africa divided into resource-rich and non-resource ones. It can be seen that, the

polocentre.org
icshge.org
non-resources-rich African countries have, on average, smaller non-resources sectoral shares (agriculture and manufacture) as
compared to their non-resources-rich African counterparts. Above that, they have a bigger share of services sectors that is
expected in the resources-rich nations, as a manifestation of DDS resulting from availability of excess money from the resource
rents to be lavishly spent on services.
REFERENCES
Adam, C. S., & Bevan, D. L. (2003). “Aid, Public Expenditure and Dutch Disease” Berkeley, California: Centre for the Study of African Economies.
Asheim, G. B. (2011). Hartwick’s Rule. Encyclopedia of Energy, Natural Resource, and Environmental Economics.
Asheim, G. B., Buchholz, W., & Withagen, C. (2007). The Hartwick rule: myths and facts. In Justifying, Characterizing and Indicating Sustainability (pp.
125-145). Springer, Dordrecht.
Bourdet, Y., & Falck, H. (2006). Emigrants' remittances and Dutch disease in Cape Verde. International Economic Journal, 20(3), 267-284.
Bucuane, A., & Mulder, P. (2007). Exploring natural resources in Mozambique: will it be a blessing or a curse. Discussion papers, 54.
Chang, Y. (2011). A Path towards Strong Sustainability.
Corden W. M. and Neary J. P. (1982), Booming Sector & De-industrialization in a Small Open Economy, Economic Journal, No. 92.
Corden, W. M. (1984): Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation, Oxford Economic Papers, New Series, Vol. 36, No. 3
Hartwick, J. M. (1977). Intergenerational equity and the investing of rents from exhaustible resources. The American economic review, 67(5), 972-974.
Khaleel A. G. (2012): Dutch Disease Syndrome and the Nigerian Economy, Measurement, Effects and Solutions, International Journal of Sustainable
Development, Pan African Book
Krugman, P. (1987): “The Narrow Moving Band, the Dutch Disease, and the Competitive Consequences of Mrs. Thatcher: Notes on Trade in the Presence
of Dynamic Scale Economies,” Journal of Development Economics, Vol.27, pp. 41-55.
Kuhlman, T., & Farrington, J. (2010). What is sustainability? Sustainability, 2(11), 3436-3448.
Kyle, S. (2005): “Oil Revenue, The Real Exchange Rate and Sectoral Distortion in Angola”, Working Paper of the Department of Applied Economics and
Management, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853-7801 USA.
Lam, R., & Wantchekon, L. (2002). Political Dutch disease. Unpublished Paper, 2.
Lartey, E. K., Mandelman, F. S., & Acosta, P. A. (2012). Remittances, exchange rate regimes and the Dutch disease: a panel data analysis. Review of
International Economics, 20(2), 377-395. Federal
Lawn, P. (2003). How important is natural capital in terms of sustaining real output? Revisiting the natural capital/human-made capital substitutability
debate. International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, 3(4), 418-435.
Matsuyama, K. (1992): “Agricultural Productivity, Comparative Advantage and Economic Growth,” Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 58, pp. 317–34.
McKinley, T. (2009). Why Is ‘The Dutch Disease’ Always a Disease? The Macroeconomic Consequences of Scaling Up ODA. In Economic Alternatives
for Growth, Employment and Poverty Reduction (pp. 85-99). Palgrave Macmillan, London.
Mehlum, H., Moene, K., & Torvik, R. (2006). Cursed by resources or institutions? The World Economy, 29(8), 1117-1131.
Neumayer, E. (2000). Resource accounting in measures of unsustainability: challenging the World Bank's conclusions. Environmental and Resource
Economics, 15(3), 257-278.
Palma, G. (2005):
Pearce, D.W.; Markandya, A.; Barbier, E.P. Blueprint for a Green Economy; Earthscan Publications: London, UK, 1989. [Google Scholar]
Sachs, J. D., & Warner, A. M. (1995). Natural resource abundance and economic growth (No. w5398). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Sachs, J. D., & Warner, A. M. (2001). The curse of natural resources. European economic review, 45(4-6), 827-838.
Sopp L. M. and A. Leiman (2017), Mineral Resource Accounting Measures in Africa, Working Paper Series N°283, African Development Bank, Abidjan,
Côte d’Ivoire.
Tressel, M. T., & Prati, M. A. (2006). Aid volatility and Dutch disease: is there a role for macroeconomic policies? (No. 6-145). International Monetary
Fund Working Paper WP/06/145.
Van der Ploeg, F. (2011). Natural resources: curse or blessing? Journal of Economic Literature, 49(2), 366-420.
World Bank (1997a), Expanding the Measure of Wealth: Indicators of Environmentally Sustainable Development. Washington D.C.: The World Bank.
Cited in Neumayer (2000).
World Bank (2017) Total Natural Resources Rents; World Development Indicators, Estimates based on sources and methods described in "The Changing
Wealth of Nations: Measuring Sustainable Development in the New Millennium" (World Bank, 2011).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Estimation of production and rate of consumerism for electronic wastes

of Arak City for prospecting purposes and policies for these wastes
Aghmashhadi, A.H.,1,* and Zahedi, S.2
1
Department of Environment, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural resources, Arak University, Iran;
ahedayati@alumni.ut.ac.ir
2
Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Islamic Azad University, Tehran Science and Research Branch, Tehran,
Iran
Abstract—Problem Statement: One of the most important issues that have been raised in the past two decades is relative to
the development of the electronic industry; and the wastes generated. The metropolitan region of Arak is the industrial hub of
Iran and has been involved in varied environmental issues, such as waste management and engineering for the past years. In
this study, efforts are made to compute the amount of production and the rate of consumerism for electronic wastes in Arak,
together with policies and future measures. Materials and Methods: Due to the absence of a valid data-base in Iran for this
purpose and production of this kind of waste, questionnaires are utilized and statistical methods for the years 2018 – 2028
computed. Likewise, this article unfolds the consumerism rate or the exclusion of e-wastes for better prospects in the future.
Findings: Calculations and research indicates that the per capita production of e-wastes in Arak in 2018 was estimated to be
approximately 3.45 kilograms per head; this shall rise to 5.36 kilograms in lieu of each person in 2028. Based on the results of
this research, the consumerism rate for e-wastes in Arak in 2018 has been estimated to equate to 50.4 %. Summarization: In
order to gain from economic benefits and the management of environmental impacts and e-wastes, provisions for an integrated
electronic waste management system is essential. This shall be achieved by an accurate estimation of an infrastructure in this
sphere for the current and future. To be successful, such a system should consider the socio-economic and environmental
issues of wastes of such criterion under a single system.
Keywords—electronic wastes, production per capita, consumerism, Arak
I. INTRODUCTION
O VERINDULGENCE in the growth of population, development in urbanization, the emergence of new technologies,
including behavioral changes, as well as the pattern of consumption on one hand; and restrictions in the use of natural
resources on the other hand, in addition to creating several complexities and problems in the lives of mankind, has led to the
occurrence of numerous social and environmental incongruities (Debnath et. al, 2016). In recent decades, one of the
consequences of developments, in the global community, is in the infrastructure of electrical and electronic industries (Wath,
2010; Ikhlayel, 2018). In actual fact, the growth of electrical industries and their inclination towards modifications of the
current century has ushered a greater use of electronic equipment, which is one of the crucial industries, in relevance to utilizing
metals and in intensifying this aspect (Oguchi et. al, 2012; Zeng et. al, 2017).
One of the most vital issues, which has been debated in the last two decades in relative to the development of electrical
and electronic industries, are the electrical wastes, which arise from these industries. These wastes, other than having valuable
materials for recycling purposes, also comprise of extremely hazardous materials. Approximately 2.7 percent of electronic
wastes consist of lethal elements and heavy metals such as, nickel, bromine, lead etc. though simultaneously, about 60 percent
of the electronic wastes engulf metals having a capacity for recycling, such as, iron, aluminum, copper etc. (Widmer, 2005).
Similarly, in accordance with the Waste Management Implementation Regulations of Iran in 2004 and in relevance to its
Articles (1 and 3), which has indicated to the necessity of recycling the materials present in waste matter (Iran Council of
Ministers, 2005); and with due attention to the fact that, a high level of wastes found in electronic refuse, hence, taking
advantage of recycled material is absolutely essential (Ikhlayel, 2017). In addition to which, Chapter 19 of Agenda 21
emphasizes the cooperation between sectors and varied countries as to the assessment of chemical materials entering the human
environment, (particularly through wastes); and in Chapter 21 of Agenda 21, waste reduction has been referred to as a
continuous and follow-up strategy (Agenda 21, 1992).
In general, and in a simple categorization, electronic wastes can be accounted for, as being a sub-division of solid urban
wastes, which is a hybrid of household, administrative, commercial and industrial wastes. This assortment has caused the issue
of electronic trashes to become into a crucial aspect, with which the global community is confronted (Mallawarachchi and
Karunasena, 2012). A high growth of these wastes has compelled and necessitated their collection and recycling (Kumar and
Dixit, 2018). The recycling of electronic wastes has high potentials, thereby, recycling such materials today; prove to be a
profitable business for reputable companies (Queiruga et. al, 2012).
It should be noted that, electronic refuse can assert impacts on the environment and synchronously, due to the effects,
which the recycling of these materials have, in concern with an alleviation of economic conditions (Shirodkar and Terkar,
2017), the rendering of a management system, which addresses all these factors is totally essential (Resmi and Fasila, 2018).
To execute such a system, it is necessary to compute the amount of these wastes produced and their economic value. Hence,
this research targets to survey the economic value of iron aluminum and copper present in these electronic wastes which are
generated.
The rate of consumerism: Normally, decision-making procedures on a macro level take place in two ways. In ideal
conditions, data is utilized to perform future predictions and then decision-making is carried out. But in other circumstances

polocentre.org
icshge.org
and in most of the developing countries; and in the case of an absence of a data-base, decision-makers invoke an ideal situation
which is to be achieved. The latter condition, in addition to being inaccessible in most circumstances, also causes the loss of
financial assets and energy to a certain extent. The rate of consumerism is a managerial integer; and in actual fact, due to a
dearth of the presence of a specific data-base in Iran, the consumerism rate for electronic goods, in relative to their production
of wastes in the future is harvested, upon which, decisions are attained.
II. MATERIALS AND RESEARCH METHODS

Study Limits: Arak is one of the chief metropolises of Iran and one of the largest cities of this country, as well as the
center of the Central Province of Arak. The population of Arak amounted to 591, 756 persons in 2016; and is considered and
accounted for, as the pole of the population of the Central Province and is the fourteenth most densely populated city of this
country.
Arak is one of the industrial cities of Iran, which, in the context of a variety of industrial products stands first and from
the viewpoint of mother industries ranks second, though, in general, it is the fourth industrial ‘hub’ of the country. This city
has been specified as the ‘industrial capital’ of Iran, due to the existence of mother industries, 80 percent of the country’s
energy resources and the presence of the largest aluminum producing factory and sodium sulfate mine of the country. It is
because of this, Arak is one of the most polluted cities of Iran (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Location of the Central Province and Arak City.
Since the electronic wastes produced in all spheres, such as, household, administrative and commercial and as the city of Arak
is the pivot for all these uses, it has been taken into consideration as a study area.
III. METHOD OF ANALYSIS

The method of research in this study, is to utilize field methods and the designing of a questionnaire, in order to collect
the initial statistics and information in relevance with the electronic wastes of Arak City; including the use of descriptive
statistical methods, to determine the volume of samples and the utilization of mathematical computations, to estimate the
volume of electronic wastes produced in the abovementioned city.
Calculation of electronic wastes produced: In order to measure the quantity of solid wastes, weight and volume are
utilized. The use of volume for measuring quantity can be misleading. For example, a cubic meter of solid wastes before being
compressed varies in quantity or size with that, of a cubic meter of material, which is in a compact condition in a truck;
whereas, both of these will differ from a cubic meter of material in a burial location with total density. Thereby, if volume is

polocentre.org
icshge.org
employed to measure quantity, it is certain that determining the amount of compression is absolutely necessary.
So as to prevent a measuring error, the material must be weighed, as weight is the only valid basis for recording and
comparing information. Weight can be measured directly, irrespective of the percentage of density. The utilization of weight
in the transportation aspect of materials is also important.
The source of information is a critical part of the evaluation in electronic waste products. These resources can be divided
into primary and secondary data. The key factors to consider, when selecting secondary information resources are as hereunder
(UNEP, 2010)
 Accessibility to data
 Data validation
 Quantity and range of data
 Complete information
 Data communication to enable the selection of computational methods.
The most vital issue in the grounds of computing electronic wastes is the presence of authentic governmental data-bases,
on part of the governments, which covers total procedures such as, the export, import and even so the smuggling of electronic
goods. Unfortunately, the presence of such data-bases is lacking in many of the developing countries.
Since there is no access to a data-base in Iran in regards to the production of electronic wastes, a questionnaire was utilized
in this research, so as to compute the electronic waste produced and collect information as to the amount of administrative,
commercial, household and…… electronic wastes from the populace is necessary. In these questionnaires, efforts have been
made to ask discrete (closed query) questions. In these types of questions, an individual has to select an alternative from
between several options. Closed query questions are simple to use and have a numerical capacity or are coded for analysis by
a computer. The data secured from this procedure, was also processed using the Excel Software.
As stated above, the community which has been aimed at is the city of Arak. The population of this city was estimated as
591, 756 persons in 2016 and likewise, the population growth for the mentioned year and region was approximately 1 percent
(Iran Statistics Center, 2016). By utilizing the formula for the estimation of population and has been stated within the model
of Formula (1), the populace of this city has been calculated for the years 2018-2019 and 2028-2029. Formula to estimate the
population:
Pt = p0 (1+r0 )n (1)
in which, Pt= the population in future years, p0=the current population, r0=population growth rate, n=the number of years. With
the assistance of this information and in accordance with Formula (1), the population of Arak in the years 2018-2019 and
2028-2029 will be equivalent to:
P2018-2019 = 591, 756 [(1+(0.01)]2 = 603.650

P2028-2029 = 591, 756 [[(1+(0.01)]12 = 666.805
The sample size was calculated by using the Cochran Formula, with a level of confidence of 95 percent and permissible errors
of 0.05, the population size was 380 people. These (individuals) were selected by a random cluster model at the residential,
recreational, administrative, commercial and public centers.
After completing the questionnaire and with the help of Table (1), which stated the average weight of some of the
electronic commodities (goods) by Cobbing and Robinson. The electronic wastes for the years 2018-2019 and 2028-2029 were
computed and is rendered in Table (2).
TABLE I
THE AVERAGE WEIGHT AND LENGTH OF LIFE OF SOME ELECTRONIC APPLIANCE (COBBING, 2008, ROBINSON, 2009)
Commodity Weight (Kg) Commodity Weight (Kg) Commodity Weight (Kg)
PC 25 Dish Washing Machine 50 Microwave 15
Mobile Phone 0.1 Electric Cooking Machine 60 Refrigerator 35
Video Game Set 3 Electronic Heater 5 Phone 1
Photocopy Set 60 Food Mixer 1 Bread Toaster 1
Radio 2 Freezer 35 Vacuum Cleaner 10
TV 30 Hairdryer 1 Washing Machine 65
DVD Player 5 Iron 1
Air Conditioner 55 Electric Kettle 1
From the total amount of electronic wastes produced by various devices, the entire amount of electronic wastes generated
in an annum can be computed. Table (2) illustrates the amount and calculates the electronic wastes produced in the years 2018-
2019 and 2028-2029. It should be mentioned that, in developing countries like Iran, the duration for utilizing electronic
commodities is normally more than usual; and at the same time after its usage, it could be stored at home for a period of time
as an investment. Hence, in this paper, a 10-year period has been taken under consideration, as the time needed to dispose of
electronic goods. On the basis of the data in 2018, the amount of wastes produced in 1028-2029 can also be computed.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
TABLE II
CALCULATIONS RELATED TO THE PRODUCTION OF ELECTRONIC WASTE IN THE YEAR 2018 AND 2028
Number of Weight of Number of Weight of
Row Commodity Commodity discarded Commodity discarded Commodity discarded Commodity discarded
in the year 2018 in the year 2018 (Kg) in the year 2028 in the year 2028 (Kg)
1 PC 32 800 46 1150
2 Mobile Phone 107 10.7 153 15.3
3 Video Game Set 12 36 17 51
4 Photocopy Set 1 60 4 240
5 Radio 3 6 3 6
6 TV 26 780 37 1110
7 DVD Player 0 0 6 30
8 Air Conditioner 33 1815 47 2885
9 Dish Washing Machine 3 150 7 350
10 Electric Cooking Machine 4 240 6 360
11 Electronic Heater 7 35 8 40
12 Food Mixer 10 10 13 13
13 Freezer 16 560 31 1085
14 Hairdryer 15 15 22 22
15 Iron 7 7 16 16
16 Electric Kettle 14 14 23 23
17 Microwave 1 15 5 75
18 Refrigerator 13 455 18 630
19 Phone 36 36 52 52
20 Bread Toaster 3 3 5 5
21 Vacuum Cleaner 15 150 19 190
22 Washing Machine 7 455 11 715
Sum 365 5653 549 8763
Per Capita Generate 2018 (Kg) 3.45 5.36
After calculating the electronic waste produced by the statistical sample, steps must be taken to compute it’s per capita,
in order to estimate the total electronic wastes generated in Arak City. Given that, the individuals present in the statistical
sample, have expressed the amount of electronic wastes produced by their families, so the overall electronic waste produced,
should be divided by number of families of the entire individuals who are the members of the statistical sample. It should be
noted that, in accordance with the statistics, the average number of persons accounted for as members of a family in the city
of Arak is 4.3 persons (Iran Statistics Center, 2016). This integer is also utilized for a better comparison in 2028-2029.
 Per Capita of Electronic Wastes Generated by the City of Arak in 2018:

Kilograms: 3.45 = (380 x 4.3)/5653 = (average number of individuals of family x number of individuals in the statistical
sample)/total E-waste generated by the statistical sample in 2018
 Per Capita of Electronic Wastes Generated by the City of Arak in 2028:

Kilograms: 5.36 = (380 x 4.3)/8763 = (average number of individuals of family x number of individuals in the statistical
sample)/total E-waste generated by the statistical sample in 2023
 Total electronic wastes of Arak City in 2018:

Kilograms: 2.082.593 = 603650 x 3.45 = per capita production x total population of Arak in 2018
 Total electronic wastes of Arak City in 2028:

Kilograms: 3.574.075 = 5.36 x 666805 = per capita production of entire Arak in 2028.
Upon calculating the total electronic wastes produced in the city of Arak, the quota of each of the metals, namely, iron,
aluminum and copper should be calculated in all these wastes. For this purpose, the components of the electronic wastes and
the share of each of these must initially be determined.
Components of electronic wastes: Components of electronic wastes which are used and collected for electrical and
electronic equipping purposes are as follows: metals, compressors/ engines or motors, coolers, plastics, insulators, LCD,
rubber, coils, wires, concrete, transformers (converters), magnets, textiles, circuit boards, florescent lamps, (comprising of a
white and shining illumination), heating or thermal elements, thermostats, nonflammable plastics, batteries, CFC, HCFC, HFC
and HC, exterior cables, resilient and fire-retardant ceramic fibers, materials with radio-active potentials and electrolysis (Betts,
2008).
Large household electrical appliances such as, refrigerators, may comprise of electrical motors, circuit boards, convertors,
capacitors, thermal insulators, switches, coils and plastic materials etc. An ordinary clothes washing machine may consist of
metal parts, an interior and exterior cylinder, motor, pump, control panel, switches and other equipment. The older washing
machine models usually would utilize large capacitors, while washing machines today, have motors with varied speeds and
generally have circuit boards. In the ICT sector, the inclination is towards the use of smaller equipment; and today, in place of
utilizing CRT’s in monitors, the LCD or even the LED technology is taken advantage of (OECD, 2001).
Materials and compounds contained in electronic wastes: The hybrid of electronic wastes is extremely in diversity. An

polocentre.org
icshge.org
immense part of these materials comprise of ferrous and non-ferrous metals, plastic, wood, glass, circuit boards, concrete,
ceramic, rubber and other components. Iron and steel form approximately 50 percent, plastic about 13 percent and non-ferrous
substances, including other materials comprise of 13 percent of the total of electronic wastes; whereas, the non-ferrous
materials such as, copper, aluminum and precious metals are silver, gold, platinum, palladium etc. (Francheti, 2009).
Hence, components having the capacity of being recycled in terms of electronic wastes for each commodity, material and
or electronic sectors can be categorized into six major groups (Widmer et. al, 2005). Table 3 Illustrates the percentage of each
of the electronic waste components and shows the percentage of the entire electronic appliances:
 Iron and or steel used as a mold or frame
 Non-ferrous metals, especially copper in cables, aluminum and gold
 Glass
 Plastic
 Electronic components
 Other materials (such as, rubber, wood, ceramic etc.)
TABLE III
PERCENTAGE OF THE SHARE OF EACH SUBSTANCE IN THE ELECTRONIC WASTE (WIDMER ET AL., 2005)
Material Percent of E-Waste Material Percent of E-Waste
Iron 47.9 Electronic Board 3.1
Refractory plastic 15.3 Wood 2.6
Copper 7 Cement 2
Glass 5.4 Other metal 1
Flammable plastic 5.3 Rubber 0.9
Aluminum 4.7 Other 4.6
IV. FINDINGS
A. The weight of iron, aluminum and copper present in electronic wastes in Arak City in 2018
In order to compute the weights of these metals, we have used the following formula:
Total weight of the E-wastes x percentage of metal contribution to electronic waste = weight of metal.
Thereby, the weight of each of the valuable metals in the electronic wastes of the city of Arak will be calculated for two
time-periods, i.e. 2018 and 2028 (Table 4).
TABLE IV
TWO TIME-PERIODS, I.E. 2018 AND 2028
Weight 2018 (Kg) Weight 2028 (Kg)
Aluminum 97882 167982
Iron 1035049 1776315
Copper 145782 250185
B. Consumerism rate of electronic wastes of Arak City

In order to calculate the rate of consumerism, the rate must be calculated for each electronic commodity. Subsequently,
with the average of each of the components, the total rate of consumerism can be computed in the region.
The consumerism rate = suite [(The number of electronic commodities sold Xi in year t) – (the number of disposable
electronic goods Xi in the year t) / (the number of electronic goods that were disposable Xi in the year t) * 100 (Formulae 1-
7; Source: Author) The average consumerism rate in this research is equivalent to:
= Σ [(46-32)/32 + (153-107)/107 + … + (11-7)/7]*100 = 50.4 %
For the city of Arak, the percentage of the consumerism rate and hence, the generation of electronic wastes in the following
decade shall be equivalent to 50.4 percent. In actual fact, this rate reflects the aspect that, electronic wastes in the future decades
will have a growth of 50.4 percent and so fundamental measures must be ensured for its managerial requirements.

In this research, a survey has been performed for the electronic wastes generated, including the valuable metals present
in it, in the city of Arak in 2018; and its predictions for 2028 have been investigated. On the basis of the computations
accomplished, the per capita production of this sort of electronic waste in Arak City was approximately 3.45 kilograms in lieu
per head in 2018. This amount shall rise to 5.36 kilograms in lieu per head in 2028. Similarly, the consumerism rate for the
generation of electronic wastes in 2018, which is also due for 2028, has been estimated as 50.4 percent. Therefore, attention
has to be paid in relative to this growth of production, for which, adhering to optimal policies in these grounds, is absolutely
essential.
The kind of outlook towards this category of wastes defines a confrontation with it. In the case of providing a management
system which is appropriate to the economic and cultural conditions in relevance to electronic wastes, sufficient advantage can
be taken of this trash; such that, today, due to the economic benefits, of recycling economic wastes, these have come to be

polocentre.org
icshge.org
known as ‘urban mines’. But if a suitable program is not denoted for the management of this class of wastes, due to the
hazardous material of which these wastes are combined, it could affirm harmful and irrevocable impacts on the environment
and mankind. As these wastes contain valuable metals with capacities of recycling, they could be of great benefit to humans
and the environment. In other words, these are environmental and economic benefits, uniformity of perceptions (views),
including, individual and social benefits.
In order to control and manage the immense volume of electronic wastes, we require an integrated electronic waste
management system. This system is a combination of the flow of wastes, its collection, recycling and disposal, which targets
at achieving environmental benefits, economic desirability and social acceptance. Such a comprehensive system shall lead to
the presentation of a strategic managerial system for electronic wastes in all areas. Figure 2 demonstrates the proposed model
for the management of electronic wastes.
Figure 2. Integrated Electronic Waste Management System. Source: Authors
But to achieve this system, all the benefactors and stakeholders have to be taken into reflection, in concern, with the
production and management of electronic wastes; and in addition to contemplating on role of the public, the governmental and
private sector, for the management of electronic wastes; aspects, such as, environmental, economic and particularly, social,
also have to be considered in this issue.
REFERENCES
Agenda 21. 1992 .A chapter for the future. Rio, Earth Conference.
Araujo, M. G., Magirini A., Mahler C. F., Bilitewski, B. 2011. A model for estimation of potential generation of waste electrical and electronic equipment
in Brazil, Waste management, 42, pp 123-131.
Betts, K. 2008. Producing usable materials from e-waste. Environ Sci Technol. 49, pp 6782-3.
Cobbing, M. 2008. Toxic Tech: Not in our Backyard.Uncovering The Hidden Flows of e_waste, Report from GreenPeac.
International.http://www.greenpeace.org/content/belgiumlfrlpresslreports/toxic-tech. pp 126-132.
Debnath, B., Roychoudhuri, R., Ghosh, S, K. 2016. E-Waste Management – A Potential Route to Green Computing. Procedia Environmental Sciences,
Volume 35, Pages 669-675.
Dwivedy, M., Mittal, R.K. 2009. Estimation of future outflows of e-waste in India, Waste Management 30. pp 483-491.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Franchetti, M.J. 2009. Solid Waste Analysis and Minimization a System Approach. United States of America: McGrow Hill Companies. pp 230-233.
Ikhlayel, M. 2018. An integrated approach to establish e-waste management systems for developing countries Journal of Cleaner Production, Volume
170, Pages 119-130.
Iran Statistics Center. 2016 .Population and Housing Census of Iran.
Iran Council of Ministers. 2005. Regulations on the implementation of waste management approved by the year 2005.
Lkhlayel, M. 2017. Environmental impacts and benefits of state-of-the-art technologies for E-waste management. Waste Management, Volume 68, Pages
458-474.
Kumar, A., Dixit, G. 2018. An analysis of barriers affecting the implementation of e-waste management practices in India: A novel ISM-DEMATEL
approach. Sustainable Production and Consumption, Volume 14, Pages 36-52.
Mallawarachchi, H., Karunasena, G. 2012. Electronic and electrical waste management in Sri Lanka: Suggestions for national policy enhancements. Journal
of Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 68, pp 44-53.
OECD. 2001. Extended Producer Responsibility: a guidance manual for government. pp 76-81.
Oguchi, M., Sakanakura, H., Terazono, A., Takigami, H. 2012. Fate of metals contained in waste electrical and electronic equipment in a municipal waste
treatment process. Journal of Waste Management, 32, pp 96-103.
Queiruga, D., Gonzalez B, J., Lannelongue, G. 2012. Evaluation of the Electronic Waste Management System in Spain. Journal of Cleaner Production, 24,
pp 56-65.
Resmi, N.G., Fasila, K.A. 2018. E-waste Management and Refurbishment Prediction (EMARP) Model for Refurbishment Industries. Journal of
Environmental Management, Volume 201, Pages 303-308.
Robinson, B. H. 2009. E_Waste: An assessment of global production and environment impacts, Science of the Total Environment, 32, pp 183-191.
Shirodkar, N., Terkar, R. 2017. Stepped Recycling: The Solution for E-waste Management and Sustainable Manufacturing in India. Materialstody:
Proceedings, Volume 4, Issue 8, Pages 8911-8917.
UNEP. 2010. A report recycling form E-waste to resources. United Nation Environment Programme(UNEP). pp 80-95.
UNEP. 2005. Inventory Assessment Manual of E-Waste. http://www.unep.or.jp/ietc/Publications/spc/EWasteManual_Vol1.pdf
Wath, S.B., Vaydia, A.N., Dutt, P., Chakrabarti, T. 2010. A roadmap for development of sustainable E_waste management system in India. Science of the
Environment. 72, pp 19-32.
Widmer, R., Oswald-Karpf, H., Sinha-Khetirwal, D., Schnellmann, M., & Boni, H. 2005. Global perspective on e-waste, Environmental Impact Assessment
Review, 45 pp 436-458.
Zeng, X., Yang, C., Chiang, J.F., Li, J. 2017. Innovating e-waste management: From macroscopic to microscopic scales. Science of The Total Environment,
Volume 575, Pages 1-5.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Treatment of Uranium and Heavy Metals on Soil and in Groundwater

Choi, J.
Korea Institute of Science and Technology (KIST)-Green City Technology, 5 Hwarangro 14gil Seongbukgu, Seoul, 02792,
Korea; jchoi@kist.re.kr
Abstract—The adsorption of heavy metals and uranium by the samples was influenced by soil constituents, and increased with
increasing Pb, Ni, Zn, Cd, and U concentrations. Microorganisms were also compared with these abiotic soil constituents for
their ability to adsorb these metals. Dead cells adsorbed the largest quantity of all heavy metals than live cells and other soil
components. At pH 6.0, the uptake percentage of U(VI) by dead cells was higher than that of any of the other metal ions. On
the basis of amounts of adsorption on adsorbents, the selectivity sequences were varied. The most common sequences were U
>> Pb > Cd ≈ Zn > Ni. The results verified the importance of geochemical parameters of soils such as type of clay mineral,
oxide mineral content, and organic content, for controlling metal uptake. The results also suggest that bacterial membrane cells
can be successfully used in the treatment of mixed metal-contaminated wastes.
Keywords—heavy metal, uranium, Vertisol, smectite, kaolinite, microorganism, adsorption
I. INTRODUCTION
M IXED contaminants, which usually refer to the mixtures of radionuclides and heavy metals, have been major
environmental problems (McCullough et al., 1999). These metals and radionuclideshave been introduced into the
subsurface from the processing of ore mining, milling, and manufacturing (Fuller et al., 2002). Heavy metals and uranium
uptake processes are complex and may involve competition between the various soil constituents and soil microorganisms.
Several recent studies sought to quantify the adsorption of heavy metals onto microorganisms (El-Sheekh et al., 2005),
materials such as silica, alumina, smectite (Sylwester, et al., 2000), natural sediments (Gomes et al., 2001), and iron oxides
(Bargar et al., 2000). In this study, we present results from studies of the competition between soil constituents and soil
microorganism to remove heavy metals and uranium.

A. Bacteria and soil samples
Pseudomonas putida was obtained as single species from American Type Culture Collection (ATCC 17484) and used as
a bacterial strain. We determined the dry weight of P. putida suspension by drying them for 24 hr. at 60 oC. Dead cells were
obtained by treatments suggested by Kurek et al (1982). The soil adsorbent materials in this study were a Vertisol (Burleson
series, thermic Udic Haplusterts, from Snook, Texas), a kaolinite (fine clay size fraction, <0.2 mm) extracted from Geogia
kaolinite (KGa-1, Clay Mineral Society), and a smectite (fine clay size fraction, <0.2 mm) extracted from Gonzales bentonite
(STx-1, Texas). To study the effects of pH and soil components on CEC, two clays (smectite, kaolinite), two soils (untreated
Vertisol, DCB & H2O2-treated Vertisol) were prepared. The pH of the soil solution was adjusted to 5, 6, and 7 by adding1 M
HNO3 or 1 M NaOH.
B. Batch Experiments
MINTEQA2 (Allison et al., 1990) was used to determine the upper concentration limit to avoid the supersaturation of the
metals in this study. Adsorption isotherms were constructed for two clays, two soils, and bacteria (live and dead cells) by
equilibrating them with increasing Pb, Cd, Zn, Ni, and U concentrations. The range of contaminant concentrations [as PbNO3,
NiNO3, ZnNO3, CdNO3 and (UO2(NO3)2·6H2O)] and the solid to solution ratio, were set up based on the result of preliminary
adsorption tests (EPA, 1992), to get measurable and statistically significant measurements. Adsorption kinetic experiments
were carried out with the same mass used on adsorption experiment above, total concentration of 1 mg L -1, final pH of 6.0,
and ionic strength of 0.05 M NaClO4.

Nonlinear adsorption is characteristics of decreasing adsorbent-adsorbate affinity with an increasing extent of adsorption
(Sposito, 1989) and may reflect heavy metal and U(VI) adsorptions to different types of sites as a function of minerals. In
heterogeneous media, like Vertisol in this study, there is the potential for an even larger variety of surface sites. Although the
dependence of heavy metal adsorptions to all adsorbents was not steeper than that of U(VI), the percentage of metals adsorbed
increased linearly and then reached near equilibrium. In the case of reference smectite, more than 60 % of initially-added heavy
metals and U were adsorbed at pH 6. Kaolinite contains only edge sites (AlOH and SiOH) without siloxane cavity that 2:1
clay minerals (smectite and vermiculite) have. Zachara and Smith (1994) suggested aluminol (AlOH) is the most important
site to adsorb these metals compared to silanol (SiOH) among edge sites of clay minerals because of formation of inner-sphere
complexation between these metals and aluminol. Adsorption isotherms on the kaolinite were similar to those on the reference
smectite. Cadmium, however, showed higher affinity to kaolinite than zinc. Untreated Vertisol has higher affinity for metals
than that of two clay minerals (smectite and kaolinite). Most of the previous studies conducted adsorption experiments using
same weight of adsorbents.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
The same surface area was used to quantify the adsorption of heavy metal and U(VI) because each soil component has
different sites that can react with cations and anions in solution. Sorption isotherms were fitted to the Langmuir model using
nonlinear regression. Nonlinear relationship was observed between heavy metal and U(VI) adsorptions, and all adsorbents
(Figure 1).
(a) (b) Pb
3.0 Pb 2.0 Zn
adsorbed mass per unit

Zn
surface area (g m )
Cd

-2
-2
Cd Ni
1.5
2.0 Ni U
U
(a) 1.0
1.0
(c) 0.5
0.0 0.0
(e)
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
-1
Equilibrium Conc. (mg L ) Equilibrium Conc. (mg L )
-1
(c) (d) Pb
2.5 2.0 Zn
Pb
Cd
-2
-2
2.0 Zn
(d) 1.5 Ni
Cd
U
1.5 Ni
U 1.0
1.0
0.5 0.5
0.0 0.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
-1
Equilibrium Conc. (mg L ) Equilibrium Conc. (mg L )
-1
Pb
(e) Zn (f) Pb
0.20 Cd Zn
2.5
Cd
-2
-2
Ni
0.15 U Ni
(f) 2.0 U
0.10 1.5
1.0
0.05
0.5
0.00 0.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
-1
-1 Equilibrium Conc. (mg L )
Equilibrium Conc. (mg L )
Figure 1. Adsorption isotherms of heavy metals and uranium on soil, clays, and bacteria at pH 6.0 (NaClO 4, 0.05 M): (a) reference smectite; (b) kaolinite;
(c) untreated Vertisol; (d) treated-Vertisol; (e) live cell; (f) dead cell.
The order of selective affinity of metals on untreated Vertisol is U > Pb > Zn ≈ Cd > Ni, which is in good agreement with
the results by Schwertmann and Taylor (1989). They mentioned that Fe and Al oxides adsorb heavy metals and the most
important factor determining the extent of adsorption is pH. However, this sequence did not exactly follow the order of Misono
softness parameters suggested by Sposito (1989) who defined that the tendency of metals to form covalent bonds on the basis
of ionic radius and the ionization potential. McBride (1994) mentioned that the electronegativity is an important factor in
determining which of metal adsorbed with the highest preference. Similar trend of metal adsorptions were observed on the
treated Vertisol. Several researchers (Lion et al., 1982; Tessier et al., 1985) suggested that organic matter and Fe and Mn
oxides are the more dominant adsorbents of heavy metals among soil components than clay minerals and other oxides. The
selective affinity of metals on treated Vertisol was not changed after organic matter and Fe and Mn oxide removal. For treated-
Vertisol, the order of selectivity was U > Pb > Zn ≈ Cd > Ni, which was the same with untreated Vertisol. The adsorption of
Pb, Cd, Zn, Ni, and U(VI) to live P. putidawas less than that of soil samples and dead cells. Most microbial cells exhibit

polocentre.org
icshge.org
colloidal characteristics similar to those of soil mineral oxides (pH-dependent charge sites) in the adsorption of metals or
hydrolyzed metals.
The adsorption sequence on live cells was found following as: U >> Pb ≈ Zn > Cd ≈ Ni. This sequence did not exactly
follow the order of the electronegativity of the metal ions suggested by Evans (1966). However, this selective affinity is in
good agreement with the sequence presented by Schwertmann and Taylor (1989). With the exception of adsorption kinetic by
live cell, four soils and dead cell showed the approximately 70 % uptake after 1h of equilibrium (Figure 2a, b, c, d, e, and f).
The kinetics of heavy metal adsorption for reference smectite, untreated Vertisol, treated Vertisol, and dead cells were similar,
whereas the live cells removed the added heavy metals slowly over the first 1 to 24 hrs. and then at a very slower rate over the
remainder of the experiment (Figure 2). The results of kinetic experiments showed that contact time of 24 hrs. was sufficient
to achieve equilibrium. For all six media, after 24 to 48 hrs., the aqueous concentration changed by < 4 % over the next 96 hrs.
of the experiment.
(a) (b)
1.0 1.0
Pb Pb
0.8 0.8 Zn
Zn
Cd Cd
0.6 0.6 Ni
Ni
C/C 0
C/C 0
U U
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100
hours hours
(c) (d)
1.0 1.0
Pb Pb
0.8 Zn 0.8 Zn
Cd Cd
Ni 0.6 Ni
0.6
C/C 0
C/C 0
U U
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0 0 20 40 60 80 100
0 20 40 60 80 100
hours hours
(e) (f)
1.0 1.0
Pb Pb
0.8 Zn 0.8 Zn
Cd Cd
0.6 Ni (f)
0.6 Ni
C/C 0
C/C 0
U U
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100
hours hours
Figure 2. Kinetics of metal adsorption as a function of time (0.05 M NaClO4): (a) reference smectite; (b) kaolinite; (c) untreated Vertisol; (d) treated-
Vertisol; (e) live cells; (f) dead cells.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The project was financially supported by the KIST-Gangneung Institute (Grant. 2Z03040).
REFERENCES
Allison, J.D., Brown, D.S. and Novo-Gradac, K.J. (1990) MINTEQA2/PRODEFA2, A geochemical assessment model for environmental systems: version
3.0 user's manual. Environmental Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, USEPA.
Bargar, J.R., John, R., Reitmeyer, R., Lenhart, J.J. and Davis, J.A. (2000) Characterization of U(VI)-carbonato ternary complexes on hematite: EXAFS and
electrophoretic mobility measurements. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 64, 2737–2749.
El-Sheekh, M.M.., El-Shouny, W.A., Osman, M.E.H. and El-Gammal, E.W.E. (2005) Growth and heavy metals removal efficiency of Nostoc muscorum
and Anabaena subcylindrica in sewage and industrial wastewater effluents, Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology, 19, 357–365.
EPA (1992) Batch-type Procedures for Estimating Soil Adsorption of Chemicals. USEPA Report, 530/SW-87/006-F.
Evans, R.C. (1966) An Introduction to Crystal Chemistry, Cambridge University Press, London.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Fuller, C.C., Bargar, J.R., Davis, J.A. and Piana, M.J. (2002) Mechanisms of uranium interactions with hydroxyapatite: Implications for groundwater
remediation, Environmental Science & Technology, 36, 158–165.
Gomes, P.C., Fontes, M.P.F., Silva, A.G., Mendonça, E.S. and Netto, A.R. (2001) Selectivity sequence and competitive adsorption of heavy metals by
Brazilian soils. Soil Science Society of America Journal, 65, 1115-1121.
Lion, L.W., Altmann, R.S. and Leckie, J.O. (1982) Trace-metal adsorption characteristics of estuarine particulate matter: Evaluation of Fe/Mn oxide and
organic surface coatings. Environmental Science & Technology, 16, 660-666.
McBride, M.B. (1994) Environmental Chemistry of Soils. Oxford University Press. New York.
McCullough J., Hazen T.C., Benson S.M., Metting F.B. and Palmisano A.C. (1999) Bioremediation of Metals and Radionuclides. What It Is and How It
Works: A NABIR Primer, U.S. Department of Energy, LBNL-42595, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA.
Sposito, G. (1989) The Chemistry of Soils, Oxford University Press, New York.
Schwertmann, U. and Taylor R.M. (1989) Iron oxides. In: Dixon, J.B. and Weed, S.B. (eds.), Minerals in soil environments, ASA and SSSA, Madison, WI,
p. 379-438.
Sylwester, E.R., Hudson, E.A. and Allen, P.G. (2000) The structure of uranium (VI) sorption complexes on silica, alumina, and montmorillonite.
Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 64, 2431–2438.
Tessier, A., Rapin, F. and Carignan, R. (1985) Trace metals in oxic lake sediments: Possible adsorption onto iron oxyhydroxides. Geochimica et
Cosmochimica Acta, 49, 183-194.
Zachara, J.M. and Smith, S.C. (1994) Edge complexation reactions of cadmium on specimen and soil-derived smectite. Soil Science Society of America
Journal, 58, 762-769.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Social Networks of Student-Migrants: Case of Chinese Students at the

Ural Federal University, Russia
Antonova1, N.,* and Purgina, E.
Ural Federal University, Ekaterinburg, 620083, Russia; * n-tata@mail.ru
Abstract—Relevance of the problem: As the share of international students in Russian universities is increasing, their
successful integration into the new environment becomes a matter of particular importance. Moreover, the mechanisms of their
adaptation and the way this social group functions in the new system require more in-depth and extensive research. The analysis
of social networks built by student-migrants could prove to be a valuable methodological tool capable of revealing the structure
and types of social connections formed and reproduced within such networks. A complex of social networks creates a special
type of network space comprising social positions, roles, and relationships. Thus, social networks turn into a kind of social
capital that helps international students boost their confidence in the new, foreign-language environment and adjust more
effectively. Data and methodology: For our study, we developed a questionnaire consisting of fifteen questions and surveyed
twenty Chinese students currently enrolled at the Ural Federal University (Ekaterinburg, Russia). The survey was conducted
at the beginning of 2017. The data were further processed by applying the thematic network method. Results and discussion:
We found that students’ personal networks are normally associated with their campus life, studies, leisure activities,
communication with family members, friends, and native peers. These networks do not have definite boundaries. The largest
network is usually the one connected to studies as it involves international and local-born students, professors and the
administrative staff. Connections within social networks are generally of mixed character, including both direct contacts and
indirect contacts maintained through the Internet and other media. Students consider social networks as their social capital that
helps them overcome barriers to adaptation more effectively.
Keywords—social networks, network capital, network space, international students, university
I. INTRODUCTION
I N the recent decades, more and more students have been choosing to study in Russian institutions of higher education.
According to the Russian Federal Statistics Service, in 2016, international students accounted for 5.3% of the total number
of students in Russian universities [Rosstat, 2017, p.145]. In 2017, the Russian government approved the priority project
'Development of the Export Potential of the Russian System of Education', aiming to increase the number of international
students to 710,000 by 2025 [Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation, 2017].
The majority of international students in Russia are Chinese, which makes cooperation between the two countries
particularly important. Russia and China have accumulated considerable experience of cooperation in the academic sphere
since 1950, when the Chinese-Soviet Agreement on Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance was signed. The old
economic, political and cultural ties, however, were ruptured when the Soviet Union collapsed. At the same time, other
countries, such as the USA, Germany, and Australia, managed to improve their position on the global market of higher
education.
Russia is currently investing a lot of money and effort into regaining its position on the market and becoming one of the
top host countries for international students. The reason why Chinese students choose Russian education lies in the educational
strategies of Russian universities and their strategic orientation towards cooperation with China ('Russia's Turn To the East';
'One Belt, One Road').
Therefore, a key question that needs to be addressed by the Russian system of higher education is the question how to
foster cross-cultural interactions between Chinese students and the host community. China is a highly collectivist country,
which means that respect for traditions, relations of mutual reliance and reciprocity are particularly cultivated. Being separated
from their ethnic group, from its culture and traditional practices, students may feel disoriented and helpless in the new
environment. While maintaining the already existing ties, Chinese students also seek to build a new system of interactions
with the host community. In this paper we are going to describe the main types of social networks established and maintained
by Chinese students in the process of their adaptation.
II. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

Social networks are complex structures based on relationships between the actors/agents; in other words, social networks
are systems of interactions and interdependencies. Initially, social networks were studied by social anthropology [Barnes,
1954] and social psychology [Festinger et al., 1950]. In recent decades, a vast body of sociological research has sought to
conceptualize the analytical potential of social network studies [Freeman, 2004; Scott, 2017]. Such trend provides ample
evidence of heuristic potential our analysis possesses. H.S.White proposes to consider society as a social network [White,
2008]. M. Castells believes that in modern world, the network principles of social organization are gradually replacing the
hierarchical ones [Castells, 1996]. This methodological approach determines the line of analysis taken by modern studies of
social systems. Individual experience is associated with specific social structures and institutions; social networks become the
source of information flows and their driving force, thus creating a special kind of information fields.
Actors of social networks can be individuals, social groups and communities; interpersonal and intergroup relationships
within a social network are crucial for the reproduction of this network. The network approach distinguishes between two main

polocentre.org
icshge.org
types of networks: socio-centric and ego-centric. Dealing with the first type, sociological analysis mostly focuses on studying
the status/role systems and structures within these networks, while research of the second type usually focuses on social
connections established by specific individuals. Social connections are seen as systems of interactions and relations between
the actors [Sanjeev, 2007, p. 9]. The structure of relationships between the actors and location of specific actors in the network
are crucial regardless of whether we choose to focus on separate elements or on systems in general.
International students act not only as agents of socio-cultural connections, values and norms of their home country but
also as ego actors that create their personal (ego-centric) social networks. In the host community, which is not only
geographically remote from their home country but also has a different culture, international students find that the social capital
they have accumulated in their home country has shrunk. As a result, international students seek to establish new social
connections, search for socializing institutions and practices. Network membership enables an individual to benefit from its
resources, that is, its network capital [Bourdieu, 1986]. Social networks are instrumental in reproducing social capital of actors
[Coleman, 1988] by accumulating the net resources and sharing them among the participants. Thus, networks are used by
actors to reproduce their social capital [Coleman, 1988]. Network resources become accessible to international students in the
process of their adaptation to the new environment.
As the boundaries of network structures tend to be blurred, they can expand and include new actors ready to follow the
unspoken rules of these networks. When a Chinese student enrols at a Russian university, he or she is included in the already
existing ethno-national network of their compatriots, which facilitates this student's adaptation to the new environment.
The ethno-national and racial factors play the leading role in the process of creating social networks [Kenny and Stryker,
1996]. At the same time interactions between representatives of different ethnic groups in education contributes to the creation
of new international social connections [Marmaros and Sacerdote, 2006].
Study-based networks formed by students have a positive impact on their academic performance [Hommes et al., 2012;
Feld and Zölitz, 2017]. The endogenous peer effect in study groups is the largest [Sujarittanonta, 2016; Yeung et al., 2016].
Social networks represent a special kind of system of social interactions and relations, both direct and indirect.
Development of digital technologies, such as the Internet, results in time-space compression, which includes social space.
Communications become more and more accessible and actors are able to create and maintain social networks remotely.
Creation of such networks is now determined by the interests and needs of their participants rather than by geographical
proximity. At the same time electronic communications have succeeded in connecting remote places without eliminating their
importance [Tsatou, 2009].
Modern research of social networks relies on the following methodological principles. Firstly, the main focus of such
studies is the structure and content of social connections between the actors, the characteristics of their interactions and social
relationships. Secondly, social networks can be created on micro- and macro-levels. Actors on micro-levels are individual
people while on macro-levels actors are social groups and communities. Such understanding of social networks makes it
possible to build various typologies of networks, including multi-level typologies. Thirdly, social networks provide their
members with access to social capital. Actors within networks can exchange resources, they can join networks or leave them,
thus creating opportunities for reproduction and development of social capital. Any network becomes a source of such capital.
Fourthly, each network holds resources than can be used by social groups and communities in the process of their adaptation
to the new environment. Fifthly, the system of interactions between actors in a social network follows certain rules and norms.
Standardization makes social networks more stable, thus enabling actors to increase their social capital as other actors wish to
join the network and to benefit from its resources. Sixthly, the characteristics of actors' interactions, their frequency and
diversity allow us to predict further development of this or that social network and its popularity among the actors. Moreover,
social networks do not have definite boundaries and can expand when joined by new actors or shrink when the actors exit the
network. Finally, actors can maintain their social networks directly or indirectly, through on-line communication. Actors
located far away from each other can have even stronger ties than those living closely. The above-described methodological
approach was applied in our research aimed at studying social networks created and reproduced by Chinese students at the
Ural Federal University (Ekaterinburg, Russia).
III. DATA AND METHODOLOGY

Our analysis relies on the strategy of qualitative sociological research developed by Marvasti [Marvasti, 2004], which
allows us to improve our understanding of quotidian life of international students in Russia and to describe their social
connections and relationships formed and reproduced within the student community. In 2017, we conducted standardized
interviews with undergraduate Chinese students enrolled at the Ural Federal University (UrFU).
In total, we interviewed twenty students majoring in the humanities and social sciences (international relations, regional
studies, social studies, and philosophy). We developed a questionnaire consisting of fifteen questions: twelve semi-closed
questions, which allowed the respondents to pick one of the response options or write their own answer, and three open
questions, which invite more expansive answers.
We interviewed five first-year, six second-year, five third-year, and four fourth-year students, 12 females and 8 males.
The age range of our survey respondents was from 19 to 28 years old. All of the students were successful in their studies and
did not have any failed academic tests or exams.
The thematic network method was applied to process the data [Attride-Stirling, 2001]. This method has allowed us to
identify the main themes (social networks), group them and conduct their qualitative analysis. We identified connections
between social networks formed by international students. We were also able to look into the reasons and motivations behind

polocentre.org
icshge.org
international students' actions and interactions and to focus on their perceptions and interpretations of their life in Russia.

Studying abroad is an important step but also a great challenge one faces when building their life trajectory. Finding
themselves in a different socio-cultural environment, international students experience culture shock. All our respondents
pointed out that in the first months of their stay in Russia they suffered from anxiety, feeling both incompetent and insecure.
Anxiety can aggravate stress and result in more frequent behavioural mistakes. Even daily routines, such as using public
transport, can cause psychological discomfort: '...people don't always offer their seats to the elderly on the bus...' (woman, 25).
All international students go through the process of social and cultural adjustment. The majority of our respondents, however,
report that by the end of their first year they felt much more at ease with their social environment, being able to understand
and accept the unspoken rules and norms of the host community. '...when I came here, I was often surprised that people don't
smile that much...' (woman, 27).
Belonging to an ethnic network helps an international student overcome culture shock. It should be noted that such ethnic
networks emerge when international students discover the new destination (city, university) and start arriving. Student
diasporas that settled in a certain university become an important factor in attracting prospective students who feel more
confident in their future educational institution: '...I kept in touch with a friend studying here (at UrFU), she's on her third
year already, and she told me to come too...' (man, 21).
Ethnic networks help their members preserve their ethnic identity, primarily through communication in their mother
tongue and through the reproduction of the norms and traditions of their home country/region. Ethnic networks also enable
international students to cope with the language barrier more efficiently: almost all our respondents point out that they had
problems adapting to the Russian environment because of the difficulties in understanding the language. '... I can read books
in Russian but students and teachers speak so fast that I don't understand...' (woman, 19).
Such social networks based on the common language and culture exist throughout the whole period of their stay in a host
country, although, as students themselves have pointed out, their intensity and focus may change with the time. At the early
adaptation stages, during their first year in Russia, students actively maintain social contacts with members of their own ethnic
group but, getting gradually involved into the quotidian life of the host community, they have to get into contact with more
and more hosts in order to deal with various everyday situations, which expands the 'geography' of social networks and
increases the number of interactions with representatives of youth subcultures and new social groups.
The boundaries of social interaction may expand but it does not lead to the loss of ethnic or national identity. While the
level of external control characteristic of living in a parental family decreases, international students point out that speaking
their native language remains virtually the only way of preserving and reproducing their personal identity. '...I felt lost and
homesick when I just arrived, so it was particularly important for me to be able to speak to somebody in my native language'
(woman, 23). Shared ethnic background creates the connection within such groups, marking the boundary between 'us' and
'them'.
Apart from the social network based on belonging to the same ethno-national community, Chinese students also form
education-based networks involving other actors participating in the education process. Since education is their main
occupation, this network is usually the largest. Chinese students observe that they interact, firstly, with the international student
department and services; secondly, with other students, both international and Russian; and, finally, with the lecturers and
tutors whose classes they attend and with their academic supervisors. Our respondents have pointed out that despite language
difficulties, their interactions with other participants of the education process have contributed to their adaptation in the new
environment: 'Some teachers give me individual assignments, which I like because I understand what exactly I need to do and
it helps me master the subject better...' (woman, 20).
It is particularly interesting to analyse the role of teachers in such social networks. We believe that working with
international students stimulates teachers to be more inventive, to find and realize new, innovative approaches to teaching.
While trying to foster dialogue and cross-cultural understanding with Chinese students, many Russian teachers acquire new
competencies and discover new social roles for themselves - not only that of an educator or a mentor but also that of a partner
in cross-cultural communication. According to our respondents, the closest relationships they have established are with their
RFL teachers (Russian as a Foreign Language): these are the teachers that international students turn to when they need
explanations concerning the education process, life of the host community, and so on.
The next network type is formed on the basis of students' quotidian life. Since all our respondents are living in a dormitory,
the key actors in this network are Chinese students and other international students as well as their Russian peers. Naturally,
Chinese students maintain closer ties with their compatriots as they share and reproduce the practices of their home country
such as cooking national dishes, speaking their native language, and so on: 'I get some spices sent from home, so we cook
national dishes together...' (woman, 22).
Although Chinese students maintain active social contacts with the peers from their home country, they also adopt
practices which are characteristic of the whole student community. Our respondents have pointed out that they are trying to
comprehend and accept the informal rules and norms of behaviour: 'My groupmates and I had an "equator party" at the
dormitory...' (man, 25). Involvement in campus life, filled with different events and activities, helps international students
overcome barriers to social adaptation. 'I have taken to staying up late, but feel fine. We often walk at night near the campus,
listen to music...' (man, 22). 'We celebrate holidays with my roommates: Maslenitsa, New Year. We have also been to a concert
at the university...' (woman, 25).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
The network based on everyday communication includes not only peers but also other actors such as public transport
drivers and conductors, health professionals, shop assistants, policemen, and so on. According to our respondents, conflicts
tend to arise more frequently in these interactions, mostly due to their lack of knowledge of the host communities' rules and
norms of behaviour: 'Once a bus conductor yelled at me that I should take off my backpack to make enough room for him to
pass...' (man, 24). Some of our respondents believe that their ethnic identity was the cause of conflict situations: 'In a hospital
a cleaner came up to me and told me to get lost...' (woman, 25).
We believe that the conflicts arising between Chinese students and members of the host community are likely to be caused
by the language barrier. Our respondents said that Russian everyday speech abounds in idioms and slang words, which
increases the risk of misunderstandings and misinterpretations.
Our respondents report that in their daily life they mostly stick to the already 'tried and tested' practices rather than try to
experiment with new ones: 'I do all my grocery shopping at one local supermarket, because I know it well...' (man, 23); 'I
haven't taken a taxi yet, I usually take a tram or a bus...' (man, 20). Standardization of practices, acquiring certain routines and
habits make Chinese students feel less vulnerable. Emotional stability is essential for students’ social well-being, which, in its
turn, performs a regulatory function and serves as an indicator of social sentiment. In general, networks based on everyday
contacts with their peers and the host community are stable; social contacts are established at the initial stage and normally
remain unchanged throughout the whole lifecycle of the network.
One more type of social networks, which is crucial for international students' emotional stability, is the family-based
social network, which is the most closed of all and includes the student, his or her parents and other relatives. The development
of the Internet, gadgets and applications has added extra communicative channels that our respondents can rely on: 'I touch
base with my parents almost every day...' (woman, 21). This network allows Chinese students to retain their ethnic identity,
cultural values and norms, and to remain fluent in their native language. Being away from home does not affect the emotional
ties that connect international students to their families and family-based networks are reproduced throughout the whole period
of studies at a foreign university.
Social networks and connections that an international student establishes and maintains contribute to his or her social
capital. Our interviews have shown that the majority of Chinese students consider higher education in Russia as an instrument
for upward professional and social mobility. Education is seen as an important step towards improving one's material well-
being and realizing one's career plans: '...When I graduate and return home, I'll know two foreign languages: Russian and
English. It will help me make a good career at home...' (man, 26); '...my uncle studied here, then he made a good career at
home because he was fluent in Russian...' (man, 25). New social contacts and relationships determine the process of adaptation
and integration of international students into the host community. The students believe that the faster they adapt, the easier it
is for them to be successful in their studies. Our respondents seek to obtain prestigious university education, which should
become the foundation for their career advancement.
Our survey has demonstrated that the most significant social networks for international students are those based on their
everyday contacts, studies, relationships with their family and peers. We believe that this list is by no means exhaustive and
that there are other networks - territorial, friendship-based, and so on. Not only do the social contacts and relationships of our
respondents reveal various patterns of interaction practices but they also show the overall dynamics of the international
students' community.
V. CONCLUSION
Our results have led us to the following conclusions. Firstly, a social network formed on the basis of ethno-national
identity (ethnic social network) helps international students preserve their ethnic identity. Secondly, by creating personal (ego-
centric) social networks, students can boost their confidence and adjust to the new environment more effectively. Thirdly,
social networks enhance students' social capital, a part of which they lose when leaving their home country. Fourthly, social
networks, more specifically actors involved in different network structures, become agents of socialization, contributing to
successful adaptation and integration of Chinese students into the host community.
We also found a number of impediments that international students face, the most significant of which is the language
barrier. Problems with speech and comprehension limit the number of contacts students can establish, lead to a decrease in
network interaction and unequal access to network resources. Highly motivated students, who are ready to put some effort
into learning the language and culture of the host country, are more successful in overcoming this barrier, which means that
motivation and persistence are crucial for coping with adaptation challenges. As international students adopt more and more
values, elements of lifestyle and practices of their Russian peers, their leisure and daily routines start to change. The negative
image of Russian people spread by some mass media increases the distance between the hosts and international students,
exacerbates alienation, and hinders effective interaction and cross-cultural communication. On the other hand, the host
community is also not immune to negative clichés and stereotypes, which distort its perception of international students and
act as barriers for their integration. Yet another problem is what can be referred to as bureaucratic barriers or bureaucratic
hurdles such as getting a visa, health insurance, registration at the place of residence and so on, which require assistance of the
university's specialized services.
We believe that the phenomenon of social networks built by international students requires further sociological research.
As the number of international students at Russian universities continues to grow, it becomes crucial to gain more in-depth
understanding of the quality and efficiency of their adaptation mechanisms, which includes social networks.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This research was supported by a Russian Science Foundation grant to the Ural Federal University (№ 18-18-00236).
REFERENCES
Attride-Stirling, J. (2001) ‘Thematic Networks: An Analytic Tool for Qualitative Research’, Qualitative Research, Vol. 1 No 3, pp. 385-405. DOI:
10.1177/146879410100100307
Bames, J. A. (1954) ‘Class and Committees in a Norwegian Island Parish’, Human Relations, Vol. 7 No 1, pp. 39-58.
Bourdieu, P. (1986). ‘The Forms of Capital Education’, in Halsey, A.H. (Ed.), Culture, Economy and Society, Oxford University Press, New York, pp. 46 –
58.
Castells, M. (1996) ‘The Rise of the Network Society. The Information Age’, Economy, Society and Culture, Vol. I. Oxford: Blackwell.
Coleman, J. S. (1988) ‘Social Capital in the Creation of Human Capital’, American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 94, pp. 95–120.
Feld, J. and Zölitz, U. (2017).’Understanding Peer Effects: On the Nature, Estimation, and Channels of Peer Effects’, Journal of Labor Economics, Vol. 35
No. 2, pp. 387-428.
Festinger, L., Schachter, S., Back, K. (1950). Social Pressure in Informal Groups, Stanford University Press, Stanford.
Granovetter, M.S. (1973) ‘The Strength of Weak Ties’, American Journal of Sociology, No. 78, pp. 1360–1380.
Freeman, L. (2004). The Development of Social Network Analysis: A Study in the Sociology of Science, Empirical Press, Vancouver.
Hommes, J., Rienties, B., De Grave, W., Bos, G., Schuwirth, L., Scherpbier, A. (2012) ‘Visualising the Invisible: A Network Approach to Reveal the
Informal Social Side of Student Learning’, Advances in Health Sciences Education, Vol. 17 No. 5, pp. 743-757. DOI: 10.1007/s10459-012-9349-0
Kenny, M. and Stryker, S. (1996). ‘Social Network Characteristics and College Adjustment among Racially and Ethnically Diverse First-Year Students’,
Journal of College Student Development, Vol. 37 No 6, pp. 649–658.
Marmaros, D. and Sacerdote, B. (2006). ‘How do Friendship Form?’, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 121 no. 1, pp. 79-119. DOI:
10.3386/w11530
Marvasti, A.B. (2004). Qualitative Research in Sociology, Sage, London.
Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation (2017). Project Summary 'Development of the Export Potential of the Russian System of Education' [on-
line]. https://минобрнауки.рф/проекты/1355/файл/9551/pasport_-_opublikovannyi.pdf (Accessed 15 July 2018).
Rosstat (2017). Russia in Numbers. Statistical Handbook, Moscow.
Scott, J. (2017). Social Network Analysis, Sage, London.
Sujarittanonta, S. (2016) ‘Social Networks and Peer Effects on Academic Performance’, Southeast Asian Journal of Economics, Vol. 4 No.1, pp. 141-157.
Sanjeev, G. (2007). Connections. An Introduction to the Economics of Networks, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
Tsatou, P. (2009). ‘Reconceptualising Time and Space in the Era of Electronic Media and Communications’, PLATFORM: Journal of Media and
Communication, Vol. 3, pp. 11–32.
White, H.S. (2008). Identity and Control: How Social Formations Emerge, 2nd ed, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
Yeung, R. and Nguyen-Hoang, P. (2016) ‘Endogenous Peer Effects: Fact or Fiction?’, The Journal of Educational Research, Vol. 109 No. 1, pp. 37–49.
DOI: 10.1080/00220671.2014.918528

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Time series dynamics of precipitation patterns in four major urban cities

in sub-Saharan Africa: Persistence, seasonality and long memory
Awe, O.O.,1 and Gil-Alana, L.A.2,*
1
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Anchor University, Lagos, Nigeria
2
Department of Economics and NCID (ICS), University of Navarra, Pamplona, Spain; * alana@unav.es
Abstract—In recent times, the study of rainfall patterns have become highly pre-eminent for various reasons. This paper deals
with the modelling of precipitation patterns in Africa’s largest country using recently developed flexible I(d) techniques for
time series data. We employ both fractional integration and structural break techniques in studying the daily precipitation data
(spanning between 1992 and 2014) of four major cities in Nigeria (Lagos, Kano, Ibadan and Kaduna). The results indicate that
there is a significant trend for Lagos rainfall data, implying that temperatures have systematically increased across the years
in this city. Additionally, the seasonal component is more prominent in the cases of Kano and Kaduna than for Ibadan and
Lagos where the values are slightly smaller. The findings of this study have germane implications for adaptation, forecasting,
and agricultural planning, as well as disaster or risk reduction in Africa’s largest country, in the context of global warming.
Keywords—precipitation dynamics, nonlinearities, fractional integration, climate change
JEL Classification—C5, C55, C58, Y10
I. INTRODUCTION
R AINFALL modeling and analysis is significant for so many reasons. It is useful for prediction and forecasting purposes
in agriculture, weather derivatives, hydrology, risk, flood protection and disaster preparedness. Many authors have written
extensively on rainfall dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa and beyond using time series methods, (see for instance, Adefolalu,
1986; Ati et al., 2009; Nicholson et al., 2000; Ogungbenro and Morakinyo, 2014; Yaya and Fashe, 2015 and Mohammed et
al., 2015). Donat et. al. (2013) studied the trends in global precipitation extremes using gridded daily rainfall dataset, and found
increasing trends in most of the regions considered. Mishra and Lettenmaier (2011) evaluated changes in extreme precipitation
indices in major US urban areas during the period 1950–2009, and found that 30% of the urban areas have experienced
statistically significant increase in daily maximum intensities and number of days with heavy rainfall (Li et al., 2018).
Due to differences in geomorphology and climatic patterns, variability and trends of rainfall may vary across different
regions of the world (Tan et al., 2017). For instance, Manton et al. (2001) investigated the trends in extreme daily rainfall from
1961 until 1998 using rain gauge data from 91 stations in 15 countries in South East Asia, and found that the contribution of
extreme events to total annual rainfall has increased at most of the stations. Yu and Liu (2015) studied the impact of
urbanization on heavy rainfall events in China. Endo et al. (2009) used more than 200 station data across South East Asia
countries to examine the trend in extreme precipitation indices over the period from 1950 until 2000. They found that the
number of wet days tend to decrease, while average wet-day precipitation intensity shows an increasing trend in these countries.
Precipitation activities can be affected by local convective instabilities, which may cause short-duration extreme rainfall in
moist atmospheres (Mondal and Mujumdar, 2015). Local processes such as aerosols emissions may have impacts on shortwave
forcing that modifies energy balance in the atmospheric column and changes microphysical properties, which can further affect
precipitation and climate change (Li et al., 2018; Onyeuwaoma et. al, 2018).
The main objective of this study is to investigate the variation and dynamics of precipitation in four major cities in Nigeria
(four of the thirty largest urban cities in Africa) based on a set of extreme precipitation data. We are also interested in testing
the long memory property or its degree of persistence in the data. Our present study of rainfall patterns and dynamics is
important for various reasons. First, water is one the four most important constituents for the survival of life on earth apart
from air, land and sunlight. Although water is present in 75 percent of the earth’s surface, its transportation and movement to
water deficit regions is mainly facilitated by rainfall. Secondly, it is quite evident that agriculture is the backbone of most of
the countries in the world. Talking about Nigeria, Agriculture is the second largest contributor to the economy apart from oil
(Awe et.al, 2018). Most parts of Nigeria are totally dependent on the seasonal rainfall for the crops to survive and for
commercial activities to thrive in the urban cities. Therefore, rainfall is one of the most important factors to be considered
while planning agriculture and commercial activities. Thirdly, precipitation patterns are studied to gather information and
prepare a database pertaining to different regions which makes prediction of rainfall easier. Studying and predicting rainfall
patterns for different parts of the nation help farmers and the government to plan accordingly. Regional studies on rainfall is
usually done to mitigate possible disasters. Onyeuwaoma et. al, (2018) opined that the use of rain water for drinking and other
domestic purposes should be done with caution.
Lastly, rainfall dynamics is a good indicator of climate change (Olaniran, 1991; Bello, 1998). The urban cities considered
in this study are parts of the major commercial centers in Africa.
II. HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT AND URBANIZATION OF THE STUDY AREAS

According to Omotosho and Abiodun (2007), the study area (Nigeria) is subdivided latitudinally into three zones: Guinea
(coast-8°N), Savanna (8–11°N) and Sahel (11–16°N). In Nigeria, urbanism is primarily due to trade and politics, as in other
parts of the world. In the north, the great urban centers like Kano, Katsina, Zaria, Sokoto, the early Borno capitals (Gazargamo

polocentre.org
icshge.org
and Kuka), and other cities served as entry points to the Saharan and trans-Saharan trade, and as central citadels and political
capitals for the expanding states of the northern savanna. The activities of European traders attracted people to such coastal
cities like Lagos, Badagri, Brass, and Bonny, and Port Harcourt. A major distinctive feature about the growth of cities in
Nigeria is the length of their historical extension and geographic coverage. Overlying the original features of the earlier cities
were those generated by colonial and postcolonial rule, which created new urban centers while also drastically altering the
older ones. All these cities and peri-urban areas generally tend to have high population densities with high industrial and
agricultural activities which prompts our study of rainfall patterns that can affect the massive population.
Throughout Africa, societies that had been predominantly rural for most of their history were experiencing a rapid and
profound reorientation of their social and economic lives toward cities and urbanism. As a result of greater numbers of people
moving to a number of rapidly expanding cities like Lagos and Kano, the quality of life in both urban and rural areas are
changing drastically. With the largest and some of the most rapidly growing cities in sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria has
experienced the phenomenon of urbanization as thoroughly as any African nation (Fox et. al., 2018). Yu and Liu (2015)
discussed in detail how urbanization can affect precipitation through several natural mechanisms.
III. DATA AND METHODOLOGY

Daily Rainfall data obtained for Twelve years (1992-2014) from four meteorological stations (Lagos, Ibadan, Kaduna
and Kano) of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) were used in explaining the rainfall trend and dynamics in this
study.
With respect to the methodology we use fractional integration or I(d) models, which have been widely used in the analysis
of climatological and hydrological data. Examples are the works by Montanari et al. (1996), Gil-Alana (2004, 2009, 2012),
Yusof and Kane (2012), Yusof et al. (2013), Yuan et al. (2014), Gil-Alana et al. (2018). Zhang et al. (2018) and others.
We say that a process {xt, t = 0, ±1, ...,} is integrated of order d, and denoted by I(d) if it can be represented as
(1  B) d x t  u t , t  1, 2, ... , (1)
where B is the backshift operator (i.e. Bxt= xt-1), d can be any real number, and ut is supposed to be I(0), defined for the purpose
of the present work as a process that is covariance stationary and with a spectral density function that is positive and bounded
at all frequencies in the spectrum. This includes the case of white noise errors but also allowing for weak autocorrelation of
the ARMA form.
Note that by allowing d to be any real value, it can also be fractional and thus, it also covers the standard cases of unit
roots I(1) and stationarity I(0) as particular cases of interest if the differencing parameter is equal to 1 and 0 respectively.
However, since d is non-integer, we make use of the Binomial expansion
  d d (d  1) 2
(1  B) d    j B j    j j
  j  ( 1) B  1  d B  B  ... ,
j 0 j 0   2
such that equation (1) can be expressed as:
d (d  1)
(1  B) d x t  x t  d x t 1  x t  2  ... .
2
In this context, d plays a crucial role, since it will be an indicator of the degree of dependence of the data. Thus, the higher
the value of d, the higher the level of association will be between the observations. Processes with d > 0 in (1) display the
property of “long memory”, characterised because the autocorrelations decay hyperbolically slowly and the spectral density
function is unbounded at the origin.
The methodology employed to estimate the differencing parameter is based on the Whittle function in the frequency
domain (Dahlhaus, 1989). We also employ a testing procedure developed by Robinson (1994) that is the most efficient work
under local departures from the null. Its functional form can be found in Gil-Alana and Robinson (1997), Gil-Alana (2000)
and Gil-Alana and Henry (2003) among many other papers.
IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

Figure 1 displays the time series plots of the four series. A clear seasonal pattern is evident in all cases. Thus, our first
model to be examined is the following:
y t     t  xt , (1  L ) d xt  u t , u t   u t 12   t , t  1 , 2 , ... ,
where yt is each of the observed series, α and β are the unknown coefficients corresponding to an intercept and a linear time
trend; and xt is supposed to be integrated of order d (or I(d)) such that the I(0) errors u t follow a seasonal AR(1) process.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Kano Kaduna
700 500,0
450,0
600
400,0
500 350,0
300,0
400
250,0
300 200,0
200 150,0
100,0
100
50,0
0 0,0
may-02
may-04
may-06
may-08
may-10
may-12
may-14
sep-01
sep-03
sep-05
sep-07
sep-09
sep-11
sep-13
ene-01
ene-03
ene-05
ene-07
ene-09
ene-11
ene-13
may-03
may-10
feb-05
feb-12
sep-05
sep-12
jul-04
jul-11
nov-06
nov-13
dic-03
abr-06
dic-10
abr-13
ene-01
ene-08
oct-02
oct-09
jun-07
jun-14
mar-09
mar-02
ago-01
ago-08
Ibadan Lagos
500,0 600,0
450,0
500,0
400,0
350,0
400,0
300,0
250,0 300,0
200,0
200,0
150,0
100,0
100,0
50,0
0,0 0,0
may-02
may-04
may-06
may-08
may-10
may-12
may-14
may-02
may-04
may-06
may-08
may-10
may-12
may-14
sep-01
sep-03
sep-05
sep-07
sep-09
sep-11
sep-13
sep-01
sep-03
sep-05
sep-07
sep-09
sep-11
sep-13
ene-01
ene-03
ene-05
ene-07
ene-01
ene-03
ene-05
ene-07
ene-09
ene-11
ene-13
ene-09
ene-11
ene-13
Figure 1. Rainfall data (mm).
TABLE I
ESTIMATES OF D (AND 95% BANDS) IN THE MODEL GIVEN BY EQUATION (1)
City No terms An intercept A linear trend
Kano 0.25 (0.08, 0.44) 0.19 (0.05, 0.39) 0.19 (0.04, 0.39)
Kaduna 0.08 (0.02, 0.23) 0.11 (0.01, 0.27) 0.08 (-0.03, 0.24)
Ibadan -0.05 (-0.12, 0.17) -0.05 (-0.17, 0.13) -0.05 (-0.17, 0.13)
Lagos -0.02 (-0.08, 0.11) -0.04 (-0.17, 0.16) -0.10 (-0.25, 0.12)
The values in parenthesis refer to the 95% confidence interval of the non-rejection values of d. In bold, the selected model according
to the deterministic terms.
TABLE II
ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS FOR THE SELECTED MODELS IN TABLE 1
City d (95% band) Intercept Time trend Seasonality
Kano 0.19 (0.05, 0.39) 99.952 (3.86) xxx 0.750
Kaduna 0.11 (0.01, 0.27) 101.091 (6.75) xxx 0.827
Ibadan -0.05 (-0.17, 0.13) 118.731 (18.81) xxx 0.645
Lagos -0.10 (-0.25, 0.12) 113.180 (8.89) 0.233 (1.72) 0.587
We report in Table 1 the estimates of d for the three cases of no regressors, an intercept, and an intercept with a linear
time trend, and have marked in bold the most significant model according to the deterministic terms. It is observed that the
time trend is found to be statistically insignificant in three out of the four cities examined, the intercept being sufficient to
describe the deterministic terms in the cases of Ibadan, Kano and Kaduna. However, for Lagos, the time trend is found to be
significantly positive (see the coefficient in Table 2). Focusing on the estimated values of d, we observe a different pattern for
Kano and Kaduna, where long memory is present, since the estimated value of d is found to be significantly positive, compared
with Ibadan and Lagos, where the I(0) null hypothesis cannot be rejected. Table 2 displays the estimated coefficients for the
selected model in each city. There is an indication of northward reduction in rainfall as supported by previous studies
(Oguntunde et al., 2011, Ogungbenro and Morakinyo, 2014).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
We also observe in Table 2 that there is a significant trend for the Lagos rainfall data, implying that the temperatures
have systematically increased across the years in this city. Additionally, the seasonal component is more important in the cases
of Kano and Kaduna than for Ibadan and Lagos where the values are slightly smaller. Figure 2 displays the estimated trends.
We notice that only for Lagos we observe a significant positive trends.
Kano Kaduna
700 500,0
450,0
600
400,0
500 350,0
300,0
400
250,0
300 200,0
200 150,0
100,0
100
50,0
0 0,0
may-02
may-04
may-06
may-08
may-10
may-12
may-14
sep-01
sep-03
sep-05
sep-07
sep-09
sep-11
sep-13
ene-01
ene-03
ene-05
ene-07
ene-09
ene-11
ene-13
may-03
may-10
feb-05
feb-12
sep-05
sep-12
jul-04
jul-11
nov-06
nov-13
dic-03
abr-06
dic-10
abr-13
ene-01
ene-08
oct-02
oct-09
jun-07
jun-14
mar-09
mar-02
ago-01
ago-08
Ibadan Lagos
500,0 600,0
450,0
500,0
400,0
350,0
400,0
300,0
250,0 300,0
200,0
200,0
150,0
100,0
100,0
50,0
0,0 0,0
may-02
may-04
may-06
may-08
may-10
may-12
may-14
may-02
may-04
may-06
may-08
may-10
may-12
may-14
sep-01
sep-03
sep-05
sep-07
sep-09
sep-11
sep-13
sep-01
sep-03
sep-05
sep-07
sep-09
sep-11
sep-13
ene-01
ene-03
ene-05
ene-07
ene-01
ene-03
ene-05
ene-07
ene-09
ene-11
ene-13
ene-09
ene-11
ene-13
Figure 2. Rainfall data (mm) and estimated trends.
V. CONCLUSION
In this article we have examined the time series properties of the rainfall pattern in four major urban cities in Nigeria,
namely, Lagos, Kano, Ibadan and Kaduna. For this purpose we have used fractionally integrated techniques, examined features
such as persistence, time trends and seasonality. The results can be summarized as follows: There are some heterogeneous
patterns in the results across cities, and a positive linear time trend is only found in the case of Lagos. Dealing with the order
of integration of the series, long memory or high persistence is found in the cases of Kano and Kaduna, while short memory
or I(0) behaviour in Lagos and Ibadan. Finally, seasonality matters in the four cities, especially for Kaduna and Kano.
Based on the above results, it is recommended that effective countermeasures to combat the issue of flood in the study
areas require the contribution of all stakeholders. Overall, the government in the areas of study should intervene in the
urbanization process of the cities towards an ecological sustainability to prevent flooding and enhance agricultural productivity.
A drainage system for sewage and surface run-off in Lagos and Ibadan metropolis is absolutely necessary to forestall disaster.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Prof. Luis A. Gil-Alana gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad
(ECO2017-85503-R).
REFERENCES
Adefolalu, D. O. (1986). Rainfall trends in Nigeria. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 37(4), 205-219.
Ati, O. F., Stigter, C. J., Iguisi, E. O. and Afolayan, J. O. (2009). Profile of rainfall change and variability in the northern Nigeria, 1953-2002. Research
Journal of Environmental and Earth Sciences, 1(2), 58-63.
Awe, O. O., Akinlana, D. M., Yaya, O. S., & Aromolaran, O. (2018). Time Series Analysis of the Behaviour of Import and Export of Agricultural and Non-
Agricultural Goods in West Africa: A Case Study of Nigeria. Agris On-Line Papers in Economics & Informatics, 10(2).
Bello, N. J. (1998). A study of evidence of climate change based on rainfall seasonality and the reliability of rainfall regime in Nigeria. Proc. Sustained
Africa, 4, 30-32.
Dahlhaus, R., (1989). Efficient parameter estimation for self-similar process. Ann. Stat. 17(4), 1749-1766.
Donat, M. G., Alexander, L. V., Yang, H., Durre, I., Vose, R., Dunn, R. J. H., ... and Hewitson, B. (2013). Updated analyses of temperature and
precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset. Journal of Geophysical Research:
Atmospheres, 118(5), 2098-2118.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Endo, N., Matsumoto, J., and Lwin, T. (2009). Trends in precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia. Sola, 5, 168-171.
Fox, S., Bloch, R., and Monroy, J. (2018). Understanding the dynamics of Nigeria’s urban transition: A refutation of the ‘stalled
urbanisation’hypothesis. Urban Studies, 55(5), 947-964.
Gil-Alana, L. A., (2000). Mean reversion in the real exchange rates. Econ. Lett. 69 (3), 285-288.
Gil-Alana, L.A., (2004), A fractionally integrated model for some Indian monthly rainfall data. Journal of the Indian Institutional Science 84, 1-20.
Gil-Alana, L.A., (2009), Modelling Australian annual mean rainfall data. A new approach based on fractional integration. Australian Meteorological and
Oceanographic Journal 58, 119-128.
Gil-Alana, L.A. (2012), U.K. rainfall data. A long term persistence approach, Journal of the American Meteorology and Climatology 51, 1904-1913.
Gil-Alana, L.A. and Henry, B. 2003. Fractional integration and the dynamics of UK unemployment, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 65, 221-
240.
Gil-Alana, L.A., Robinson, P.M., 1997. Testing of unit roots and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series. Journal Econometrics. 80
(2), 241-268.
Gil-Alana, L.A., O. Yaya and A. Fagbamigbe, 2018, Time series analysis of quarterly rainfall and temperature (1900 -2012) in sub-Sahaan African
countries, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, forthcoming.
Li, X., Wang, X., and Babovic, V. (2018). Analysis of variability and trends of precipitation extremes in Singapore during 1980–2013. International
Journal of Climatology, 38(1), 125-141.
Mondal, A., and Mujumdar, P. P. (2015). Modeling non-stationarity in intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India. Journal of
Hydrology, 521, 217-231.
Mohammed, M. U., Abdulhamid, A., Badamasi, M. M., and Ahmed, M. (2015). Rainfall Dynamics and Climate Change in Kano, Nigeria. Journal of
Scientific Research & Reports, 7(5), 386-395.
Montanari, A., R. Rosso and M.S. Taqqu, (1996), Some long run properties of rainfall records in Italy, Journal of Geophysical Research 101, 29431-29438
Mishra, V., and Lettenmaier, D. P. (2011). Climatic trends in major US urban areas, 1950–2009. Geophysical Research Letters, 38(16).
Nicholson, S. E., Some, B., and Kone, B. (2000). An analysis of recent rainfall conditions in West Africa, including the rainy seasons of the 1997 El Niño
and the 1998 La Niña years. Journal of climate, 13(14), 2628-2640.
Ogungbenro, S. B., and Morakinyo, T. E. (2014). Rainfall distribution and change detection across climatic zones in Nigeria. Weather and Climate
Extremes, 5, 1-6.
Oguntunde, P. G., Abiodun, B. J., and Lischeid, G. (2011). Rainfall trends in Nigeria, 1901–2000. Journal of Hydrology, 411(3-4), 207-218.
Olaniran, O. J. (1991). Evidence of climatic change in Nigeria based on annual series of rainfall
of different daily amounts, 1919–1985. Climatic change, 19(3), 319-340.
Omotosho, J. B., and Abiodun, B. J. (2007). A numerical study of moisture build‐up and rainfall over West Africa. Meteorological Applications: A journal
of forecasting, practical applications, training techniques and modelling, 14(3), 209-225.
Tan, M. L., Ibrahim, A. L., Cracknell, A. P., and Yusop, Z. (2017). Changes in precipitation extremes over the Kelantan River Basin,
Malaysia. International Journal of Climatology, 37(10), 3780-3797.
Yaya, O. S., and Fashae, O. A. (2015). Seasonal fractional integrated time series models for rainfall data in Nigeria. Theoretical and Applied
Climatology, 120(1-2), 99-108.
Yuan, N., Z. Fu and S. Liu (2014). Extracting climate memory using fractional integrated statistical model. A new perspective on climate prediction,
Scientific Reports 4, article number 6577.
Yu, M., and Liu, Y. (2015). The possible impact of urbanization on a heavy rainfall event in Beijing. Journal of Geophysical Research:
Atmospheres, 120(16), 8132-8143.
Yusof, E. and L.L. Kane (2012), Short memory or long memory: an empirical survey of daily rainfall data, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Discussions 9(10):12271-12291
Yusof, E., L.L. Kane and Z. Yusof (2013). Structural break or long memory: an empirical survey on daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia, Hydrological
Earth System Science 17, 1311-1318.
Zhang, M. W. and Hu, J. (2018), Establishment and application of a fractional difference autoregressive model for daily runoff time series forecasting based
on wavelet analysis, Systems Science and Control Engineering 6, Issue 2-5.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Creation of maps of extreme weather events under the conditions of

climate change
Romanov, S.L.,* Chernoukha, B.N., and Agaronova S.I.
Unitary Enterprise "Geoinformation systems" of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, Minsk, Belarus;
*
romanov_s_l@mail.ru
Abstract—The meteorological statistics obviously indicates that there is a manifold increase of victims and frequency of
catastrophic weather phenomena now. The danger is depending, on the one hand, the fact that the parameters of rainfall,
temperature, wind speed, etc. is systematically are getting higher than the limit values previously registered for these territories.
The common level of protection of society depends on the ability of all elements of infrastructure technically resist for the all
collection external influences, ensuring safety of population and the normal functioning of the economy. Every element of this
structure has a different but the quite ultimate reserves of robustness and the probability of achievement of these critical values
is equivalent to the risk of such catastrophic events as winterkill of settlements, flooding subway, traffic collapse, etc. The
measure of this probability can get objective information about the level of protection (hazard), however, the territory of Europe
is spatially differentiated not only geographically but by modern transformation of climate. In this situation only one way of
effectively solving the all complex of problems is to create a specialized GIS and DSS (decision-making system), operating
on the basis of an electronic atlas of critical weather phenomena and on the cartographic database containing the technical
parameters of objects which get in the zone of influence of weather disaster.
Keywords— extreme weather phenomena, climate transformation, electronic atlas of dangerous weather phenomena
I. INTRODUCTION
I F the question of the presence of global warming is in some way still under discussion in society, the presence of the other
significant climate transformation is absolutely indisputable. Thus the director of the UN Development Department, Professor
Rob Fos stated: “Now natural disasters occur four times more often than 30 years ago, and the economic damage from their
destruction has grown sevenfold”. At the same time, the tendency in accordance with which extreme weather events acquire the
character of a mass natural disaster in the world is obvious, and their consequences become more and more destructive. According
to the UN office for 2015, UNISDR (International Disaster Database, EM-DAT) within 20 years there were recorded 6457 natural
disasters with more than 10 casualties, as a result 606 thousand people were died, 4.1 million people were injured, and the total
damage amounted to 1.89 trillion dollars [1].
The objective data of insurance companies indicate that among all the dangerous natural phenomena the extreme
weather phenomena ones are those which provide an increase and 90% of damage from all observed natural disasters (Figure1)
[2, 3].
Meteorological statistics clearly indicates that the danger is exacerbated not only by the fact that the observed
parameters of precipitation, temperature, wind speed, etc. began to exceed the record values everywhere, but also by the fact
that many weather events began to occur in a time unusual for these territories and with unusual intensity.
The example of the USA, systematically suffering from droughts and hurricanes, clearly demonstrates an obvious
technical inability of modern humanity not only to change the current climate situation, but at least to reverse the observed the
tendency. Thus, there is only one satisfactory way to concentrate efforts on minimizing the damage caused by extreme weather
phenomenon.
Prerequisites for the correctness of such an approach are the facts that, on the one hand, this problem can be obviously
solved and, on the other hand, the fact that the cost of its implementation will be some orders smaller than potential losses.
Complex minimization of the negative effects of extreme weather events for the existing natural-economic
infrastructure, first of all, is a scientific problem and, accordingly, can be satisfactorily solved only by implementing the correct
theoretical and methodological approach. Since really weather disasters occur when hazards meet vulnerability (Wisner et al.,
2004) the solution itself should be formulated in the form of an optimal scenario for counteracting the hazardous phenomena.
And since that it is impossible in a short time to change the technical characteristics of a huge number of objects of the existing
economic infrastructure, the only one optimal solution can be a wide range of evacuation, preventive or/and technical measures,
that have to apply timely in respect to a specific number of concrete objects located on the threatened territory. Besides that,
it is obvious that society's capacity to address the underlying risk factors, reduce the vulnerability and to be ready to respond
in case of emergency requires a significant increase in accuracy and expansion of the limits of predictability of consequences
for all possible weather phenomena [4].
In these conditions the level of protection of modern settlements is primarily determined by the ability of multi-age
infrastructure to technically resist the entire set of external influences ensuring not only the physical safety of the population,
but also the smooth functioning of the main life-support systems. Accordingly, the degree of danger arising is determined by
the technical characteristics of such elements of the economic infrastructure as CHP, power transmission lines, foundations
and floors of buildings, transport and communication networks, etc. All these structures have different, but quite finite safety
factors, excess of which practically inevitably leads to catastrophic consequences. Therefore, there is a set of well-defined
critical values of temperature, precipitation, wind speed, etc., the likelihood of implementation of which is equivalent to the
risk of such catastrophic phenomena as the freezing of the city, flooding of underground utilities, transport’s collapse, massive
collapse of buildings with large amounts of snow, guaranteed breakage of the wired network, etc.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
LEGEND
-1
-2
-3
-4
Figure 1. The number of natural disasters for the period 1980-2015 according to Munich Re, NatCatSERVICE [2]. 1 — geophysical phenomena
(earthquakes, tsunamis, eruptions), 2 — meteorological phenomena (storms, tornadoes, dust storms); 3 - hydrological phenomena; 4 - climatic phenomena.
The problem the consequences prediction is that most of the maximum permissible loads on different objects were
determined at different times and basing on a long-term series of meteorological observations and as a result, the probability
of significantly exceeding the permissible safety limits is now different for different elements of the infrastructure.
Establishment of multiple redundant safety factors for the extremely rare events has never been a rate in economic practice,
therefore the accepted values of critical loads usually do not go well over outside the range of physically external weather
parameters that used to realize before. In addition, the critical situation in some cases does not arise as a result of the presence
of a process, but is determined by the specifics of its behavior – the intensity and frequency of precipitation, speed and
frequency of the amplitude of changes in wind and temperature, duration of snowfall, magnitude and density of hail, etc.
Moreover, the fact that a critical situation has never been observed in this territory does not indicate that its realization has
been impossible and, all the more, it quite does not mean that it cannot be realized in the conditions of modern climate
transformation.
From the foregoing it follows that the only way to ensure the maximum level of security with minimum of possible losses
is to provide an accurate and timely forecast of the results of the realization of all physically possible weather effects on the
entire infrastructure. Solving this problem, on the one hand, will allow one get an idea of the level and nature of technogenic
security (danger) and, on the other hand, one study in advance a detailed scenario of events including realization of a critical
situations, involving the failure of individual components and subsystems of infrastructure (transport, communications, power
supply, etc.)
It is important to remember that the territory of Europe is spatially differentiated not only administratively and
geographically - climatically the potentially dangerous weather conditions are also spatially heterogeneous. So the threat of
flooding is localized in relation to existing watercourses and reservoirs, “icy rain” is most dangerous for wired and transport
communications and an abrupt change in temperature can cause a whole range of dangerous phenomena, including death from
heat stroke, icing and fog, fire hazard, freezing of crops, the destruction of the road surface, etc. Accordingly, the likelihood
of various the emergencies vary significantly, for example, for the territory of Hungary, France or Iceland, where climate
transformation parameters manifest themselves differently in mountain, coastal or steppe regions.
II. DISCUSSION
The purpose of the work is, first, to comprehensive assesses the results of realization of various extreme weather events
and second, to evaluate and spatially characterize the trends of change of level of security, caused by the global climate
transformation process.
Although the total diversity of dangerous weather events is relatively small, the total number of scenarios of possible
development of the situation is so great that in real-time a representative forecast of the operational situation by means of
individual experts will be at least very difficult.
A hardware-software complex that provides detailed spatial interpretation of possible natural impacts can be a very
powerful tool for effectively reducing natural risks, however, the existing “legacy of the past” in the form of insufficient spatial
planning is a problem.
Since meteo-climatic conditions exist and affect both the population and infrastructure regardless of the existing
administrative and territorial division, the best preventive solution will be a creation of an electronic atlas of the distribution
of potentially maximum dangerous natural phenomena in Europe. On the basis of this should be created a specialized geo-
information system (GIS), working, in turn, on the basis of an updated cartographic database containing attribute information
on the technical parameters of objects located in the area of expected effects of a particular weather phenomenon in
combination with a specialized decision-making system (DSS).
The mode of operation of such a software and hardware complex implies the possibility of its continuous operation in the
normal operation mode, which implies constant monitoring of changes in the observed weather conditions in the control zone,
the mode of operation in the conditions of probable emergence and operation in the conditions of real emergency. The functions

polocentre.org
icshge.org
of this hardware and software package are as follows.

1. Cartographic display of potentially dangerous zones of emergencies in relation to the season of year and features
of the territory.
2. Creating a list and positioning objects threatened as a result of a probable dangerous weather phenomenon.
3. Assessment of the consequences of the impact of a probable natural phenomenon on the existing life support
systems (transport communications, heat and power supply, etc.)
4. Operational forecast of further development of the situation and automated management of decision-making in the
form of warning and evacuation of the population, shutting down and conservation of threatened objects, the use of means of
preventive safe measures for the rescue of especially valuable property, etc.
III. CONCLUSION
Risk reduction policies exist in many European countries. They aim at numerous hazards (e.g. forest fires, floods,
earthquakes). However, these policies across Europe have not yet been harmonised (e.g. avalanches, forest fires) or the process
has only started recently (e.g. floods). Concerted and coordinated actions at the European level, like those implemented under
the Floods Directive (EC, 2007b), can bring a considerable added value and are likely to strengthen protection of population,
infrastructure and ecosystems throughout Europe [5].
The proposed GIS-maps should include several scale levels for the whole of Europe, its individual regions and states, as
well as for individual settlement or objects of special control, such as, for example, the areas of NPPs, reserves and national
parks, toxic and radioactive substances, cultural monuments, etc.
REFERENCES
[1] http://www.unisdr.org/2015/docs/climatechange/COP21_WeatherDisasters Report_2005_FINAL.pdf
[2] http://www.munichre/touch
[3] Wisner, B.; Blaikie, P.;Cannon, T. and Davis, I., 2004. At Risk — Natural hazards, people's vulnerability and disasters, Routledge, Wiltshire, ISBN 0-
415-25216-4
[4] EEA (2011): Mapping the impacts of natural hazards and technological accidents in Europe EEA Technical report No 13/2010. European Environment
Agency, Copenhagen.
[5] IPCC (2012) Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Special Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change. (C. B. Field, V. Barros, T. F. Stocker and D. Qin, eds.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Analysis of degradation kinetics of Naphthalene and Acenaphthene on

industrial sludge of lubricant refinery by anaerobic degradation
Sabetifard, S.H.,1,* Kazemi Moayed, H.,2 and Daneshfar, M.A.3
1
Environment Department, Pars Oil Refinery, Tehran, Iran; * sabeti128@gmail.com
2
Faculty of Environment, Science and Research, Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3
South Tehran Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract—This research deals with harmonization of groundwater and the energy nexus in the state of Haryana, in the arid
Trans-Gangetic plain (India), which is faced with ecologically unsustainable groundwater abstractions with significantly
higher energy footprints in food production. Detailed analysis conducted with the aid of standard research tools established
that water and energy intensive cropping system and the highly energy inefficient 0.75 million pumpsets deployed for water
extraction- both facilitated by public policies, were responsible for the emerging situation. An ecologically compatible
cropping pattern, which envisages reallocation of crop areas, accompanied by water and energy smart agro-hydro-technologies,
reducing irrigation requirement by 9.88 billion cubic meters(BCM), and thereby eliminating the need for groundwater over
draft, has been designed. Based on the results of pilot studies under ‘Agriculture Demand Side Management’ programme,
which had indicated scope for increasing pumping efficiencies from the existing level of 35 per cent to 50 per cent, introduction
of Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) labelled pumpsets is advocated. The suggested intervention could afford a saving of
3465 million kWh of energy, annually. Additionally, these interventions would also yield a reduction of the order of 5243
million kg CO2e in GHGs, thereby harmonizing the water-energy-food nexus. Implementation of desired changes would
require a relook at water, energy and crop pricing policies.
Keywords—anaerobic degradation, arrhenius equation, degradation kinetics, industrial sludge, lubricant refinery
I. INTRODUCTION
I N Europe, the sewage treatment process produces large amounts of sewage sludge. Traditional methods for discharging
sludge such as landfill, burning and dipping in the ocean, but due to environmental impacts, the increasing cost and volume
of waste generation make these methods less practical and feasible. Currently, more than 50,000 wastewater treatment plants
are operating in Europe, producing about 7.9 million tons of solids in recently years. At present, land filling is practically not
a choice in Europe, and it is not popular in the world, and the sewage industry seeks to retrieve more amounts of sewage sludge
for agricultural purposes (J. Poluszynksa et al., 2017), which would also allow for the recovery of the nutritional cycle.
Therefore, the application of improved sewage sludge in agricultural soil will eliminate the use of chemical fertilizers. (P.
Neumann et al., 2016) Sewage wastes are usually processed in sewage disposal plants to reduce their volume, repel pathogens
and generate energy. Digestion and anaerobic digestion is the most common solution for medium and large factories. One of
the most important compounds is the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). PAHs are resistant, persistent and extensive
and can have a negative impact on the life of the environment as well as on the lives of humans. They have little water solubility
and easily absorb organic solids. PAHs compounds due to these properties, they are found mostly in urban wastewater.
Therefore, anaerobic degradation of waste materials is more important for the generation of waste materials with less
accumulation of PAHs. PAHs are resistant to biodegradability. Of course, their degradation is carried out under aerobic
conditions, nitrification and methanogenicity. Although it has been thought in the past that PAHs degradation does not occur
with sulfate degradation but now it is shown with a wide variety of PAHs. (e.g., E. Trably et al., 2005). Although aerobic
treatment requires a lot of energy, it can be useless in stabilizing and stabilizing sewage sludge, and does not produce renewable
energy.

A. Initial analysis of dry sludge of Lubricant refinery
In this research section, analyzes of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (Total PAHs) with GC / MS were performed on a
dry sludge sample of Lubricant refinery. The results of this analysis are presented in Table 1. The total amount of PAHs in the
industrial sludge sample was 52.65 ppm and the total of Naphthalene and Acenaphthene was 9.9 ppm.
1) Naphthalene
Naphthalene is an organic compound with formula C10H8. It is the simplest polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon, and is a
white crystalline solid with a characteristic odor that is detectable at concentrations as low as 0.08 ppm by mass. As
an aromatic hydrocarbon, naphthalene's structure consists of a fused pair of benzene rings. It is best known as the main
ingredient of traditional mothballs.
2) Acenaphthene
Acenaphthene is a polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) consisting of naphthalene with an ethylene bridge connecting
positions 1 and 8. It is a colorless solid. Coal tar consists of about 0.3% of this compound.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
TABLE I
ANALYSIS OF POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBON COMPOUNDS OF DRY SLUDGE LUBRICANT REFINERY (PAHS)
No Test Name Results Unit Test Method

1 naphthalene 5.4
2 acenaphthene 4.5
3 fluorene 3.5
4 phenanthrene 1.1
5 anthracene 0.1
6 fluoranthene 16.3
7 pyrene 1.7
8 benz[a]anthracene 0.1 mg/kg Extraction & ISO 17993
9 chrysene 1.1
10 benzo[b]fluoranthene 1.3
11 benzo[k]fluoranthene 0.35
12 benzo[a]pyrene 1.8
13 dibenz[a,h]anthracene 2.9
14 benzo[g,h,i]perylene 9.9
15 indeno[1,2,3-c,d]pyrene 2.6
16 Total PAH 52.65
Figure 1. Molecular structures of Naphthalene and Acenaphthene and sample of sludge.
B. Laboratory method for removing PAH from dry sludge of lubricant refinery
In this study, the laboratory method presented by N.Christensen et al., 2004, Water science and technology Vol 50 No 9
pp 237-244 was used. These experiments were carried out in 100 ml sterile mineral culture media. All vials were flushed with
nitrogen to carbon dioxide (80 to 20%), covered with Teflon plastic cap. The glucose concentration was added to the final
concentration of 0.15 ~ 0.3 g/l. Two compounds of naphthalene and 1-methylnaphthalene (They were obtained by trying and
error) were dissolved before adding to the sludge sample in pentane solution. Vials filled with 15 mg of sludge samples. 5 ml
of 37% formaldehyde solution was added to the vial to sterilize chemically the inoculum. The samples were prepared from
sludge for 10, 20 and 40 days at 25, 40 and 60 °C, under conditions of removal of PAHs compounds in incubator to control
temperature, pressure and humidity.
C. Computational method the rate of degradation of PAHs compounds of dry sludge of lubricant refinery by using
Arrhenius equation
Removing PAHs Compounds of the sludge in the lubricant refinery follows a pseudo-order reaction (zero order). The
constant velocity (K) of degradation of the polycyclic aromatic compounds is obtained from the following equation.
dc (C A 0 − C A )
− = (1)
dt tA −tA0
CA0 = Initial concentration of sludge (mg/kg)

CA = the amount of sludge concentration in time tA (mg/kg)
E (2)
=K K 0 exp(− )
RT
E (3)
LnK
= LnK 0 −
RT
E = Energy activation

polocentre.org
icshge.org
K = the constant velocity of degradation of the polycyclic aromatic compounds

K0 = the constant coefficient of Arrhenius equation
III. RESULT AND DISCUSSION

Samples prepared from sludge for 10, 20 and 40 days at temperatures of 25, 40 and 60 °C under conditions of removal of
PAHs compounds were tested. After measuring the PAHs of the samples and recording them, the slope of the line was
calculated. (Based on the removal of PAHs compounds, the slope of the line is K). Based on the Arrhenius equation, the LnK
diagram was plotted in 1/T (at the test temperatures) and, according to the graph, the constant values of E/R and K0 Was
calculated. The amount of PAH in the primary sludge sample of the refinery is 52.65 ppm.
TABLE II
THE AMOUNT OF NAPHTHALENE AND ACENAPHTHENE REMOVED FROM SLUDGE AT 25 °C
Analysis of sludge at 25 °C The amount Naphthalene and Acenaphthene removed (ppm)
10th day 0.69
20th day 1.38
40th day 2.57
TABLE III
Analysis of sludge at 40 °C The amount Naphthalene and Acenaphthene removed (ppm)
10th day 1.38
20th day 3.16
40th day 4.14
TABLE IV
Analysis of sludge at 60 °C The amount Naphthalene and Acenaphthene removed
(ppm)
10th day 3.46
20th day 4.85
40th day 7.02
According to the obtained data, we plot the graph of PAHs changes in terms of time at the test temperatures and, using
the line slope, the rate of removal of PAHs (K) compounds will be obtained.
8
7.02 y = 0.1172x + 2.375
Remove of PAHs (ppm)
7 R² = 0.9959
6
4.85
5
3.46 4.1
y = 0.0844x + 0.91
4 R² = 0.8715
3.16
3
1.38
2 y = 0.0622x + 0.095
2.57
R² = 0.9986
1 1.38
0.69
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Days
25 40 60 Linear (25) Linear (40) Linear (60)
Figure 2. Graph of the rate of degradation of Naphthalene and Acenaphthene compounds in time.
In this section, using the Arrhenius equation and the obtained data, we plot Ln K in 1/T, and using the line slope and the
intercept, we obtain the PAHs estimation equation.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
0
0.00295 0.003 0.00305 0.0031 0.00315 0.0032 0.00325 0.0033 0.00335 0.0034
-0.5
-1
Ln K
-1.5
-2
y = -1825.7x + 3.3425
R² = 0.999
-2.5
-3
1/T (k)
Figure 3. Chart of PAHs variations in time to calculate the PAHs prediction equation.
The obtained equation is the equation for estimating the rate of degradation of PAHs from sludge in lubricant refinery.
Ln k= (-1825.7*(1/T)) +3.3425 (4)
To estimate the rate of degradation of PAHs compounds at higher temperatures we use equation 4.
TABLE V
THE AMOUNT OF PAHS REMOVED FROM SLUDGE BY USING THE ARRHENIUS ESTIMATION EQUATION
Estimated temperatures for reducing PAHs compounds The rate of degradation of Naphthalene and Acenaphthene (K)
At 70 °C 0.138
At 80 °C 0.16
At 90 °C 0.18
At 100 °C 0.21
As the results show, the rate of degradation of Naphthalene and Acenaphthene (K) compounds has increased on the
industrial sludge of lubricant refinery with increasing temperature.
0.25
0.21
Rate of degradation of PAHs
0.2 0.18
0.16
0.138
0.15
0.117
0.1 0.084
0.062
0.05
0
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Temprature
Figure 4. Chart of PAHs variations in terms of temperature.
IV. CONCLUSION
The purpose of this study was investigated the rate of degradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from
industrial sludge of lubricant refinery. In this regard, an initial analysis of sludge of lubricant refinery by GC-MS method was
performed and anaerobic degradation was done on sludge samples at 10, 20 and 40 days at temperatures of 25, 40 and 60 °C.
According to the results, we find that the temperature is experimentally effective. These results are consistent with earlier
studies and show that the biological removal of PAHs increases significantly with increasing temperatures from 25 °C to 60
°C. The highest reduction of total PAHs compounds at 60 °C to 71% in 40th day was performed. Removing PAHs Compounds
of the sludge in the lubricant refinery follows a pseudo-order reaction (zero order). The Arrhenius estimation equation for

polocentre.org
icshge.org
predicting degradation conditions at higher temperatures was obtained, and conditions at higher temperatures indicate a
tendency to increase the rate of degradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) of the industrial sludge of lubricant
refinery. Use the proposed method, which has the highest efficiency, with the aim of using industrial sludge as fertilizers in
agricultural land or having low-level sludge with PAHs for landfilling.
REFERENCES
Aparicio, I., Santos, J.L., Alonso, E., 2009. Limitation of the concentration of organic pollutants in sewage sludge for agricultural purposes: a case study in
South Spain.Waste Manag. 29 (5), 1747–1753.
Barret, M., Delgadillo, L., Trably, E., 2012. Anaerobic removal of trace organic contaminants in sewage sludge: 15 years of experience. Pedosphere 22 (4),
508–517.
Bernal-Martinez, A., Carrere, H., Patureau, D., Delgenes, J.P., 2005. Combining anaerobic digestion and ozonation to remove PAH from urban sludge.
Proceedings
Bioch. 40, 3244–3250.
Boruszko, D., 2013a. Fractionation of heavy metals in sewage sludge processed by lowinput methods (in Polish). Annu. Set. Environ. Prot. 15 (2), 1787–
1803.
Boruszko, D., 2013b. Impact of low-cost processing methods on the contents of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in sewage sludge. Ecol. Chem.
Eng. A. 20 (10), 1153–1161.
Chang, B.V., Shiung, L.C. and Yuan, S.Y. (2002). Anaerobic biodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon in soil. Chemosphere, 48, 717–724.
Coates, D.C., Woodward, J., Allen, J., Philp, P. and Lovley, D.R. (1997). Anaerobic degradation of polyaromatic hydrocarbons and alkanes in petroleum-
contaminated marine harbor sediments. Appl. Environ. Microbiol., 63(9), 3589–3593.
Christensen, N., Batstone, D.J., et al., (2004). Removal of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from sewage sludge by anaerobic degradation. Water
science and technology Vol 50 No 9 pp 237-244.
Dean (1992). Lange’s Handbook of Chemistry (13th edn) McGraw-Hill, New York.
Langhoff, A.A.M., Zehnder, A.J.B. and Shraa, G. (1996). Behaviour of toluene, benzene and naphthalene under anaerobic conditions in sediment columns.
Biodeg. 7, 267–274.
Macherzynski, B., Wlodarczyk-Makula, M., Janosz-Rajczyk, M., 2014. The analysis of changes in PAHs concentration during industrial sewage
fermentation (in Polish). Gaz. Woda i Tech. Sanit. 8, 325–329.
Magarou, P. (1999). Urban wastewater in Europe: what about sludge. In Proceeding of Workshop Problems around sludge, Stressa, Italy.
Rockne, K.J., Chee-Sanford, J.C., Sanford, R.A., Hedlund, B.P., Staley, J.T. and Strand, S.E. (2000). Anaerobic naphthalene degradation by microbial pure
cultures under nitrate reducing conditions. Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 66(4), 1595–1601.
Trably, E., Patureau, D. and Delgenes, J.P. (2003). Enhancement of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons removal during anaerobic treatment of urban sludge.
Wat. Sci. Tech., 48(4), 53–60.
Villar, P., Callejon, M., Alonso, E., Jimenez, J.C., Guiraum, A., 2006. Temporal evolution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in sludge from
wastewater treatment plants: comparison between PAHs and Heavy metals. Chemosphere 64, 535–541.
Zhang, X., Sullivan, E.R. and Young, L.Y. (2000). Evidence for aromatic ring reduction in the biodegradation pathway of carboxylated naphthalene by
sulfate reducing consortium. Biodeg. 11(2), 117–124.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Weather Risk and Off-Farm Labor Supply of Smallholder Farm Households

in Developing Countries
Gansonré, S.
Laboratory of Analysis of Economic Policy, University of Ouaga, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; soumailagansonre@gmail.com
Abstract—This article provides a theoretical basis for analyzing the importance of risk avoidance behavior in labor allocation
decisions among smallholder farm households in developing countries. Based on an explicit real option model, historical rainfall
information and a short panel data from rural Burkina Faso are used to test the prediction of the model. The results show that while
rainfall risk strongly affects all labor equations, rainfall shock affects only non-farm labor supply. While emphasizing the presence
of risk avoidance behavior, these results suggest that part of the discrepancy between the prediction of traditional approaches and
the actual behavior of smallholder farm households may be explained by the modeling of the decision-making process. On the other
hand, the results imply that inability to insure against rainfall risk pushes smallholder farmers into less profitable off-farm activities
which may create and perpetuate poverty.
Keywords—weather risk, off-farm labor, real option, count panel data
I. INTRODUCTION
A GRICULTURE remains essentially rain-fed in low-income countries, involving therefore a substantial level of risk because
the welfare implications of volatile income processes are important in the absence of risk markets (Zimmerman and Carter
2003), smallholders must develop endogenous devices to deal with the potential consequences of weather hazard. This hypothesis
has led to the development of an extensive literature on consumption smoothing by means of wealth accumulation (Deaton 1991;
Mogues 2011; Fafchamps, Udry, and Czukas 1998; Kazianga and Udry 2006; Carter and Lybbert 2012), the use of informal risk
insurance mechanisms (Fafchamps and Lund 2003; Kazianga and Udry 2006; Coate and Ravallion 1993; Ligon, Thomas, and
Worrall 2002) and off-farm work (Porter 2012). Yet smallholder farm households, in the attempt to self-insure against the negative
effects of income shortfalls on their welfare may engage in diverting resources towards less weather-sensitive but also less profitable
off-farm activities. While providing means of income stabilization for smallholder farm households (and therefore a less volatile
consumption), this generates lower returns on average, a mechanism which creates and perpetuates poverty (Dercon and
Christiaensen 2011). Although some attention has been paid to investigating the evidence of risk avoidance in asset portfolio
selection (Zimmerman and Carter 2003; Rosenzweig and Binswanger 1993; Jalan and Ravallion 2001), use of farm inputs (Lamb
2003; Dercon and Christiaensen 2011) and crop selection (Kurosaki and Fafchamps 2002; Dercon 1996; Sesmero, Ricker-Gilbert,
and Cook 2017), there is still dearth of research on whether smallholder farm households engage in risk avoidance in labor allocation
in the presence of incomplete credit and insurance markets. Therefore, the quantitative importance of such behavior in explaining
poverty among smallholder farm households in low-income environment is still limited despite labor often the most important
resource available to smallholder farm households.
Rose (2001) and Ito and Kurosaki (2009) found that rainfall risk increases the likelihood of off-farm participation and off-farm
labor supply in rural India. Results by Ito and Kurosaki (2009) show that rainfall variability affects labor supply to all segments of
off-farm work with higher impact on in-kind paid work than cash paid labor employment. This highlights the importance of risk in
selecting alternative (complementary) sources of income to farming. Though Rijkers and Soderbom (2013) have found that ex-ante
risk does not affect the probability of running a non-farm business among households in rural Ethiopia, in that particular context,
returns to non-farm farm business were found to co-vary with agricultural productivity shocks, providing only a limited protection
against agricultural income shortfalls. This article makes two major contributions to this literature.
First, much of the literature on off-farm participation exploits the prediction of the traditional Marshallian rule of decision-
makingi, according to which smallholder farm households maximize net present value of utility or earnings. However, smallholder
farm households do engage in off-farm activities while returns to farming remain higher on average (Dercon 1998). Part of the
discrepancy between the prediction of these frameworks and the actual behavior of smallholder farm households may lie in the
modeling of the decision-making process. For example, households may maximize expected utility of labor income, but this requires
complete reversibility and inflexibility (Dixit 1992; Dixit and Pindyck 1994). On the other hand, as far as the labor allocation
decision implies some irreversible sunk cost and (or) the possibility to delay decision, households may endogenously devise their
timing to maximize an option value. Indeed, continuous time real option approach has been insightful in analyzing entry-exit decision
in the industrial sector (Dixit 1989), inter-sectoral labor migration (Dixit and Rob 1994; Dennis and Işcan 2007; Önel and Goodwin
2014; Richards and Patterson 1998) and agricultural investment decisions (Luong and Tauer 2006; Song, Zhao, and Swinton 2011;
Musshoff et al. 2013). This article argues that the real option framework provides a better basis for understanding labor allocation
by liquidity constrained smallholder farm households in the absence of weather risk insurance, and develops a discrete time
theoretical framework that gives room to risk to play an explicit role in the decision-making process. Second, because of data
limitation, a large body of the literature on off-farm work decisions by smallholder farm households in developing countries is
restricted to the analysis of participation decisions. The predictive power of the theoretical model developed in this article is tested

polocentre.org
icshge.org
using historical rainfall data and a short panel data on 1099 households from Burkina Faso which allows the analysis of the extent
of off-farm participation.
As a matter of fact, rainfall volatility remains the main challenge faced by smallholder farm households who rely on non-
modernized agriculture and related activities for their livelihood in Burkina Faso. According to MAH, MEDD, and MRA (2012),
agriculture employs about 86% of the active population and represents about 61.5% of income of rural farm households. Also, with
more than 90% of the poor being located in rural areas (INSD 2016), poverty is an overwhelming rural issue. The importance of
agriculture in the rural households’ livelihood strategies implies a potential for weather risk induced poverty traps which may lock
smallholder farm households into low-yielding off-farm activities. Investigating the potential of weather risk induced poverty
through the effect of weather risk on smallholder labor allocation is required to demonstrate the benefit of appropriate climate related
policies to policy-makers, given that climate variability is expected to rise in the future (MERH 2015). This will increase agricultural
risk and may further reduce currently low agricultural investments. For instance, according to MAH, MEDD, and MRA (2012), the
rate of access to improved seed is less than 15% while fertilizer use is still less than 40 kg/ha. Although the use of animal traction is
relatively widespread (around 60% in 2010), less than 0.2% of farms use motorized traction and, nearly 0.6% of cultivated lands are
under irrigation (MAH, MEDD, and MRA 2012). This suggests that labor remains the most important resource available to
smallholder farm households. Burkina Faso therefore offers an interesting setting for analyzing weather risk induced labor allocation.
Despite, while some attention have been paid to understanding the role of harvest shortfalls in explaining off-farm participation
(Reardon et al. 1992), there is a dearth of research on the role of rainfall risk in labor allocation decisions of smallholder farm
households in Burkina Faso.
The remainder of the article is organized as follows. In the next section, a theoretical model of labor allocation under risk is
developed building on the real option framework to explain how weather risk affects smallholder farm households’ decision to
allocate labor off-farm and the extent to which they work off-farm. The predictions of the model are tested using a nationwide short
panel data from Burkina Faso which is described in the third section with the empirical approach. Results of the count panel
estimations are discussed in the fourth section while the conclusion is presented in the last section.
II. A THEORETICAL MODEL OF LABOR ALLOCATION UNDER RISK

The theoretical model builds on Dixit (1989). Consider a risk averse smallholder farm household in an environment
characterized by incomplete credit and risk markets. Time is divided into discrete intervals. Such a household is limited in its ability
to borrow to consume (or to invest) and lacks access to any contract enforcement to guarantee transfer of risk. The household may
allocate its main resource, labor, in either or both farming and off-farm activities. Activities differ in their mean risk-return structure.
Resource allocation in such a context must reflect the household endogenous strategy to deal with unanticipated effect of the
uninsured risk.
A. Model Description
At the beginning of each period t, the representative smallholder farm household which is already engaged in farming decides
whether or not to engage part of its labor resources in off-farm activities and subsequently, how much of the total labor endowment
to be allocated. The objective of household is to allocate the labor in order to maximize the value of current and expected future
utility from the labor income over an infinite horizon: 𝑚𝑎𝑥 𝐸𝑡 {∑∞ 𝑡
𝑡=0 𝛿 𝑢(𝑐𝑡 )}. For convenience, labor is considered as the sole input
in both activities. The smallholder farm household must therefore decide whether and the proportion of labor 𝑙𝑡 to engage in off-
farm activities. A unit of labor-time allocated on the family farm returns 𝜔𝑡𝑎 which depends on the realization of a weather related
stochastic shock (𝜀𝑡 ) while a unit of labor employed in the off-farm activity returns a certain wage 𝜔0 . 𝜀𝑡 is assumed to follow a
Markov Process. Though 𝜔𝑡𝑎 is on average greater than 𝜔0 , for some values of 𝜀𝑡 , 𝜔𝑡𝑎 is lower. Labor allocation decisions must
occur prior to the realization of the shock, that is, the actual return to labor, attainable at the end of period depends on the realization
of this random shock. It is further assumed that there is no direct synergy between these working sectors, that is, there is no direct
benefit on return to farming as a result of working off the farm and vice-versa. This implies that production in the two activities are
independently carried over, depending on the amount of input allocated. For simplicity, technology is assumed to exhibit constant
return to scale patterns.
If there is no restriction to resource movement, the optimal behavior will be to wait until the period potential relative return is
revealed before making decision. To keep the inter-temporal nature of the problem relevant, some restrictions are necessary. As
argued by Dercon and Krishnan (1996), segments of the off-farm sectors may exhibit entry barriers in the form of lumpy investment
or skills requirement. To capture this important feature of off-farm activities, a relocation cost is introduced. Switching cost may
depend on the number of moves (Dixit and Rob 1994) or a periodic outcome (Dennis and Işcan 2007). However, without a loss of
generality, a fixed switching cost may be assumed. Therefore, it is assumed that a household that re-enters the off-farm sector, after
exiting, incurs a cost s. This switching cost may actually be viewed as a combination of various types of costs including
transportation, skills’ improvement, opportunity costs which goes beyond any start-up capital cost. Particularly, the assumption of
a fixed switching cost does not alter the theoretical insight of the role of uncertainty, although it can be expected that this affects the
equilibrium net return gap. Another important feature of this model is the absence of savings. The household does not have access

polocentre.org
icshge.org
to savings neither in the form of cash in hand nor in the form of buffer assets. This assumption is important as asset may provide
some kind of protection which may alter attitude towards risk (Dercon 1996).
The risk-averse household maximizes expected inter-temporal utility given its subjective discount factor 𝛿, the observable
𝜔𝑡𝑎
potential relative return to labor (𝜔𝑡 = ) and its current and past work status (𝑗𝑡 and 𝑖𝑡 respectively). 𝑗𝑡 is a dichotomous variable
𝜔0
indicating whether the households is currently engaged in off-farm activities (𝑗𝑡 = 1) or not (𝑗𝑡 = 0) while 𝑖𝑡 is a dichotomous
variable indicating whether the households were engaged in off-farm activities in the previous period (𝑖𝑡 = 1) or not (𝑖𝑡 = 0).
Therefore, for a given combination of labor, the household realizes the labor income 𝑤𝑡 = 𝜔0 [(1 − 𝜔𝑡 )𝑗𝑡 𝑙𝑡 + 𝜔𝑡 ] − 𝑠(1 − 𝑖𝑡 )𝑗𝑡 .
The state of the economy in the next period depends on the actions undertaken in the current period and the purely random shock
which realization takes place after all decisions for current period have been made. On the one hand, current work decision defines
beginning of next period work status (𝑖𝑡+1 = 𝑗𝑡 ). On the other hand, the fact that the next period potential relative return would be
greater than, less than or equal to the current one is entirely determined by the level of the random shock (𝜔𝑡+1 = ℎ(𝜔𝑡 , 𝜀𝑡+1 )).
The search of the maximum attainable current and expected future rewards from the decision to employ labor off the farm and
subsequently the proportion of labor to be supplied may be analyzed using stochastic dynamic programming methods based on
Bellman’s principle of optimality (Miranda and Fackler 2002). Applying the principle of optimality yields the Bellman’s recursive
functional equation (Miranda and Fackler 2002):
𝑉𝑖 (𝜔) = max{𝑢(𝑐𝑡 ) + 𝛿𝐸𝜀 𝑉𝑡+1 (𝜔𝑡+1 )} (1)

𝑗𝑡 ,𝑙𝑡
Subject to
0 ≤ 𝑙𝑡 < 1 (2)
𝑖𝑡 , 𝑗𝑡 𝜖 {0,1} (3)
(𝑐𝑡 = 𝜔0 [(1 − 𝜔𝑡 )𝑗𝑡 𝑙𝑡 + 𝜔𝑡 ] − 𝑠(1 − 𝑖𝑡 )𝑗𝑡 (4)
𝜔𝑡+1 = ℎ(𝜔𝑡 , 𝜀𝑡+1 ) (5)
This functional equation, called Value Function, 𝑉𝑖 (𝜔), captures the essential of the problem faced by dynamically optimizing
agents which is the need to balance optimally immediate and expected future rewards. Here, the households observe the potential
relative return to labor (𝜔𝑡 ), its past work status (𝑖𝑡 ) and chooses whether to engage labor in the off-farm activity or not (𝑗𝑡 ), and
subsequently the proportion of the labor (𝑙𝑡 ) to be allocated. The household actually compares the value of allocating part of the
production factor to the off-farm activity, given its past work status, the current potential relative return to labor; and chooses which
one of working off-farm or not provides the greater value. Here, the opportunity to work off-farm is akin to an American call option,
that is, the right but not the obligation to undertake the off-farm activity at a strike potential wage rate. In this perspective, the
household endogenously devises its timing to maximize an option value. The optimal decision rule is that the household should
exercise the off-farm work option when the option value reaches a critical level.
B. Optimal off-farm entry-exit
To analyze the optimal entry-exit decision, the case where the household has a single unit of labor may be considered. This unit
can be either allocated to farming or off-farm activity but not shared across both at the same time. While a household which is
engaged on farm is concerned with when to enter the off-farm activity, a household which is engaged in the off-farm activity is
concerned with when to relocate on-farm.
1) Case one: The labor is allocated to farming
From the definition of the relative return to labor, return to labor in the off-farm activity may considered to be the numéraire.
For a household with the unit of labor on-farm, the optimal shift decision requires that the value of moving out of the farm be greater
than that of remaining on farm. More formally:
𝑢[1 − 𝑠(1 − 𝑖𝑡 )] + 𝛿𝐸𝜀 𝑉01 (𝜔𝑡+1 ) > 𝑢(𝐸𝑡 𝜔𝑡 ) + 𝛿𝐸𝜀 𝑉00 (𝜔𝑡+1 ) (6)
𝑢[1 − 𝑠(1 − 𝑖𝑡 )] > 𝑢(𝐸𝑡 𝜔𝑡 ) + 𝛿𝐸𝜀 [𝑉00 (𝜔𝑡+1 ) − 𝑉01 (𝜔𝑡+1 )] (7)
If uncertainty is low, it pays to focus on the risky high yielding farm activity as the event that the actual return to labor on-farm
be lower than the certain off-farm return is less likely. Utility obtained from labor on farm is higher and relatively less volatile. At

polocentre.org
icshge.org
the same time, the discounted future relative return to labor is higher if kept on-farm than moved into the low yielding off-farm
activity. Both right-hand terms are strictly non-negative and higher. Therefore, a relatively low relative return, that is a lower return
on-farm, is required for off-farm shift option to be exercised. The second term in the right hand of equation (7) accounts for the
value of waiting. Because this value is non-negative, equation (7) suggests that the household may keep the labor on the farm even
if the net return from the off-farm activity [1 − 𝑠(1 − 𝑖𝑡 )] is greater than the expected return from farming, 𝐸𝑡 𝜔𝑡 . Holding on the
status quo therefore has value; implying that with low level of uncertainty, off-farm shifts occur later than predicted by the traditional
Marshallian rule of decision-makingii.
On the other hand, if uncertainty is high, the event that actual return to labor on-farm falls far below the certain off-farm return
becomes more likely because, though the return to labor on-farm remains higher on average, its variance has become larger. The
utility attainable from the labor on the farm becomes more volatile and less desirable. Because risk averse household is more
concerned with stabilizing income, the discounted relative return to labor, if kept on-farm, reduces. For the risk averse household,
this tends to reduce the value of holding on the status quo. The household may therefore shift the labor into the off-farm activity at
a relatively higher level of the relative return, provided that part of the uncertainty is vanished. This implies that increased uncertainty
prompts the off-farm shift decision.
The critical relative return at which relocation occurs depends also on the past-work status. Because household which reenters
the off-farm activity incurs the sunk cost, the net off-farm return depends on the relevance of the sunk cost in the particular periodiii.
The model clearly indicates that utility of working off-farm must exceed the expected utility of working on-farm by a certain amount
before off-farm shift is undertaken; and that this value is decreasing with the level of uncertainty. Because this value will be non-
negative for low risk and non-positive for high risk, models that predict that households’ shift decisions are driven by the option
providing individuals with the highest utility of consumption (Random Utility Theory) or the highest net discounted present value
of earnings (NPV Theory) may be less adequate in explaining actual off-farm labor decision. The model suggests that for lower
uncertainty, off-farm relocation occurs later than predict those models; and that with higher uncertainty it occurs earlier than they
predict.
2) Case two: The labor is allocated to off-farm activity
Consider that the household has exercised the off-farm shift option during last period. It is now concerned with the optimal
timing about shifting back on-farm. Given that there is no cost associated with moving on-farm, relocation must therefore occur
only when
𝑢(𝐸𝑡 𝜔𝑡 ) > 𝑢(1) + 𝛿𝐸𝜀 [𝑉11 (𝜔𝑡+1 ) − 𝑉10 (𝜔𝑡+1 )] (8)
Instantaneous utility of working in the riskless off-farm activity is constant. However, for very low level of risk it pays less to
keep working in the lower yielding activity; because the likelihood that the return to labor off the farm be greater than the actual
return to labor employed in farming is also very low. Moreover, and for this reason, the discounted value of the relative return is
higher if the labor is allocated to the high than to the low yielding activity. The value of waiting is therefore non-positive here. This
implies that it is worth relocating on-farm even though the instantaneous utility of working off the farm is greater than that of
working on-farm. Therefore, on-farm relocation may occurs when relative return is still less than unit, that is, the household exercises
on-farm shift decision more readily.
Even if uncertainty is high, the instantaneous utility received from off-farm work remains constant. However, the probability
that the certain return from the off-farm activity be greater than the actual return to farming becomes significant. The discounted
value of the relative return to labor becomes relative interesting if kept in the riskless activity. Holding on the status quo for some
time give the opportunity to take advantage from a potential up rise while allowing to avoid some downside risks. The household
may remain in the off-farm activity while the expected relative return is greater than one, that is, higher level of the return to labor
on-farm is required for shifts to become relevant even though the household does not bear any cost as a consequence of the decision
to exit. The household will be more reluctant to relocate on-farm.
However, this is not only due to risk aversion. Even under risk-neutrality, the optimal decision must account for the value of
waiting. To see that this is the case, recall that risk-neutral household would maximize expected return (Dercon and Christiaensen
2011). Let’s also recall that the main difference between option value and traditional Marshallian approach to decision-making is
about the trigger point at which it becomes optimal to take the relocation decision (A. K. Dixit and Pindyck 1994). While the latter
assigns a zero value to non-action, the former considers that the flows of profit over some time can be traded against the realization
of some upside potential or the avoidance of some downside risk (i.e. waiting); and that this has value. Reconsidering case one and
case two in this perspective yields the following outcome: the optimal relative return at which the household switch off the farm is
𝑉 ∗ (𝜔)−𝑠 𝑉 ∗ (𝜔) iv
𝜔𝑡 < 1 + while the optimal relative return at which it switches back is 𝜔𝑡 > 1 + . Another factor that contributes to
𝜔0 𝜔0
∗ (𝜔)
the decision-making is the rate of time preference. Indeed, 𝑉 is the net discounted value associated the action taken currently.
If discount rate is high, present is valued more and options that have negative impact on current outcomes becomes less valuable.
The discrete time model developed in this article confirms and conciliates findings from the literature on continuous time
models. On the one hand, increased uncertainty has a negative effect on decision timing when the uncertainty is associated with

polocentre.org
icshge.org
investment cash flows as argued Dixit (1989); Dixit and Pindyck (1994); Dixit and Rob (1994); Mcdonald and Siegel (1986);
Musshoff et al. (2013) and Song, Zhao, and Swinton (2011). On the other hand, increased uncertainty has a positive effect on
investment timing as argued by Kwon, Orazem, and Otto (2006) and Sarkar (2000) when resources are being moved away from the
risky investment and toward a riskless investment.
C. Optimal labor allocation
Let’s assumed that the household can share the unit of labor across activities. The solution to this dynamic optimization problem
may be characterized by first-order inter-temporal equilibrium conditions, called Euler conditions, obtained by differentiating the
Bellman equation. Though the problem will lack a closed form solution, the Euler conditions provide inter-temporal arbitrage
interpretation of the essential features of the decision-making process.
1) Euler Conditions
The Euler conditions are obtained by applying the Karush-Khun-Tucker conditions and the Envelop Theorem to the
optimization problem embedded in the Bellman equation (Miranda and Fackler 2002). For this optimization problem, the Euler
conditions may be summarized as follow:
𝜇𝑙,𝑡 = 𝜔0 [(1 − 𝜔𝑡 )𝑗𝑡 𝑢′ (𝑐𝑡 )] (9)
𝜆𝜔,𝑡 = [𝜔0 (1 − 𝑙𝑡 𝑗𝑡 )]𝑢′ (𝑐) + 𝛿𝐸𝜆𝜔 ℎ′ (𝜔𝑡 ) (10)
The Envelop Theorem (Equation (10)) summarizes gains obtained from a marginal increase of the potential relative return. The
Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions (Equation (9)), on the other hand, describe the shadow price of off-farm labor (𝜇𝑙,𝑡 ). It measures
the sum of the current and expected future rewards from a marginal increase in the share of off-farm labor; conditional on
participating. As expected, this value is increasing with the return to the off-farm activity (𝜔0 ) and decreasing with the expected
return to labor from the competing working sector (𝜔𝑡𝑎 ). This emphasizes the need to balance the resources allocation between both
activities as the relative desirability of each sector rises and falls with the history of the risk realizations.
For a given level of the off-farm return 𝜔0 , it is clear, from household inter-temporal budget constraintv, that any factor that
pulls down the relative return also lowers consumption; depending on the share of total labor employed on-farm. Since low levels
of consumption weight higher with risk aversion, the overall right-hand term is increasing. This provides incentives to increase labor
in off-farm activities; that is, household facing higher likelihood of downside farm income (riskier) will increase labor allocation to
the off-farm activity. On the other hand, if uncertainty is low, the probability of earning less from farming (compared to outcome
form off-farm) is lower; and so is the likelihood of experiencing lower consumption. These two terms interact, on the one hand, to
reduce any incentive to readjust the portfolio towards the off-farm activity. On the other hand, they reduce the potential effect
relating the presence of any precautionary behavior which would push the household to work more in attempt to reduce the likelihood
of obtaining lower income. This encourages farm household to work more on-farm and less off-farm.
Finally, these optimality conditions suggest that, as long as the expected relative return exceeds unity, there is no incentive to
increase off-farm labor. It is even optimal to withdraw some labor until the shadow price is non-negative. On the other hand, if the
potential relative return is less than unity, it is optimal to increase off-farm labor until there is no worth in any marginal increase.
Conditional on participation, optimal labor allocation is therefore achieved when the shadow price is neither positive nor negative,
that is zero. Otherwise, there will be worth either in increasing or decreasing the labor in off-farm activities. Equation (9) therefore
implies that at an optimum, if the labor constraint is not binding (𝑗𝑡 ≠ 0), labor must be supplied off-farm until the expected return
in both activities are equal; that is, (𝜔𝑡 = 1).
III. EMPIRICAL APPROACH

From the theoretical background, one may expect that households be more (less) active in off-farm activities as they face higher
(lower) uncertainty about relative return to labor. This means that the higher the variance of the sectoral relative return to labor, the
higher will be the likelihood of working off-farm and the proportion of labor to be employed off-farm as well. Empirical
implementation of this model must, however, accommodate some practical issues. For instance, off-farm activities do not always
compete with farming, particularly, in a single rainy season farming system in which the dry season lasts far longer than the farming
season as this is the case of Burkina Faso. In such a case, farmers would still have the possibility to undertake off-farm activities
after experiencing the uncertain event, when labor is not required on-farm. What may matter will be consumption of leisure. Also,
the off-farm labor in this data reflects both ex-ante and ex-post post labor allocation decisions as households were interviewed after
past harvest and before current planting season. Therefore, it would not be adequate to use proportions of labor in off-farm activities.
Instead, the empirical model uses the number of off-farm workers and allows for ex-post response as wellvi.
A. Measurement of risk and other variables
An important body of the empirical literature on households’ asset accumulation exploits the strong dependency of farm
outcome on rainfall and compute households’ income risk by the innovation error of the households’ income equation (Jalan and

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Ravallion 2001) or the transitory component of their income (Carter and Lybbert 2012; Kazianga and Udry 2006; Kwon, Orazem,
and Otto 2006) following an income decomposition framework proposed by Paxson (1992). Although that would incorporate the
effect of weather risk on households’ farm income, it is likely that all variability in their income is not due to rainfall variability.
Idiosyncratic factors such as illness, animal damage, and input dosages may play a non-negligible role as well. One may therefore
overestimate weather risk through the smallholder households’ income risk. The use of households’ idiosyncratic income risk
measures may also overlook the potential risk reduction effect of informal risk sharing mechanisms on the household attitudes
towards risk. A key assumption of this study is that covariate rainfall shocks remain the most important source of uninsured weather
risk and that much of the effect of the shocks is borne individually presumably because of the absence of effective social risk
articulation mechanisms. While missing risk markets is a natural assumption for rural economies in developing countries, the
weakness of the social risk articulation mechanisms is empirically documented (Kazianga and Udry 2006) in the case of rural
Burkina Faso. This is the main reason why a risk averse household will intensify off-farm work at the cost of lower return to labor.
This article uses a more direct approach and computes weather risk based on actual rainfall data. For subsistence rain-fed
farmers, return to farming will necessarily exhibit high correlation with rainfall (Menon 2009). Rainfall is a random variable which
the household cannot observe prior to its realization when investment decisions have to be made at planting. However, the household
has knowledge about the long-run mean and the variability of its distribution. The latter which can be measured by coefficient of
variation of rainfall represents, in the ex-ante perspective, the aspect of rainfall that will affect the decision as to whether and how
much labor to employ in off-farm activities. After harvesting, the household can observe the actual rainfall level and may respond
more directly to the rainfall shock which is the rainfall deviation from its long-run mean. In estimating the off-farm labor supply
equation, it is controlled for the structure of the household, its endowment in various productive and non-productive assets and other
community-level pull and push factors (Appendix 1).
B. Estimation issues
The data contains information about the number of people that households have engaged in a particular off-farm activity
including hired and family labor, irrespective of age, gender and work time. The resulting variable (off-farm labor) is a count as it
takes only few non-negative integer values. Count data models are non-linear in parameters with properties and features connected
to discreteness and non-linearity (Cameron and Trivedi 2001) making inappropriate to use linear regression methods (Wooldridge
2013). In addition, all standard count data distributions are intrinsically heteroskedastic which non-linear least squares methods do
not exploit (Wooldridge 2013). Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is rather more reliable. The nominal distribution of count
data is the Poisson distribution. Although the assumption of equi-dispersion makes the Poisson MLE often restrictive, it has
robustness properties that guarantee consistent and asymptotically normal estimators even when the actual count is not Poisson
distributed (Cameron and Trivedi 2001; Wooldridge 2013). However, if the assumption of equality of mean and variance does not
hold, the standard errors need to be adjusted. Though for conditional MLE sufficient condition for consistency is a correct
specification of the conditional mean, there is no efficiency loss for Poisson and Normal distribution (Cameron and Trivedi 2013).
The use of count Poisson therefore appears to be most appropriated.
It is also likely that off-farm labor supply reflects households’ subjective risk preferences. While the use of fixed-effects model
may handle this concern, the effect of risk cannot be identified under fixed-effects because the risk measure (coefficient of variation)
is time invariant. Furthermore, because fixed-effect estimators rely on within-household variations, they are likely to be less efficient
for data over two consecutive periods (Cameron and Trivedi 2009). The most relevant model for this data is therefore the random-
effects model which, in this particular case, essentially handle the complications that observations are correlated over time for a
given household. To reduce the potential bias, one may use initial wealth as instrument (Rosenzweig and Binswanger 1993; Dercon
and Christiaensen 2011) but such information is not available in this data. In order to minimize the intrusion of these potential
sources of bias, this article uses a two-stage approach following Jalan and Ravallion (2001).
First, household’s income equation is estimated following equation (11) and presented in Appendix 2.
𝑙𝑛𝑦𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼0 + 𝑥𝑖𝑡′ 𝛼1 + 𝜇𝑖 + 𝛾𝑣 + 𝜀𝑖𝑡 (11)
In this specification, the left hand is the logarithm of the households’ total income, 𝑥𝑖𝑡′ is a set of exogeneous variables, including
households’ socio-demographic characteristics and asset endowments. The error structure satisfies the following assumptions:
𝐸(𝜀𝑖𝑡 ) = 0, 𝑣𝑎𝑟(𝜀𝑖𝑡 ) = 𝜎𝜀2 and 𝐸(𝜀𝑖𝑡 𝑥𝑖𝑡′ ) = 𝐸(𝜀𝑖𝑡 𝜃𝑣𝑡 ) = 𝐸(𝜀𝑖𝑡 𝜇𝑖 ) = 𝐸(𝜀𝑖𝑡 𝛾𝑣 ) = 0. From the income equation, a permanent income
𝑝
measure is derived to be used as the proxy of wealth. The household permanent income is given by 𝑙𝑛𝑦̂𝑖 = 𝑇 −1 ∑𝑇𝑡=1 𝑙𝑛𝑦̂𝑖𝑡 ; where
𝑦̂𝑖𝑡 is the predicted income for households 𝑖 in year 𝑡. Indeed, according to Paxson (1992), over a short time period, permanent
income may be defined as the expected income for period t conditional on the resources of the household at the beginning of the
period. These resources are generally defined over the household sociodemographic factors and main assets as land, and community
characteristics (Paxson 1992; Kazianga and Udry 2006; Carter and Lybbert 2012).
C. Source of Data
The empirical analysis of this article uses data from two main sources described below.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
1) Household Level Data

Household level data used in this article were collected nation-wide in 2010 and 2011 by the Laboratory of Quantitative
Analysis Applied to Development in Sahel (LAQAD-S) with the assistance of the World Bank, the International Fund for
Agricultural Development (IFAD) and the Ministry of Agriculture of Burkina Faso. The survey was undertaken for the evaluation
of the the community-based rural development project, phase two (PNGT-II) which was co-funded by these institutions. The survey
covered all the 13 regions and 45 provinces of the country, and was designed using a multi-stage sampling strategy. First, villages
were clustered according to the mode of intervention of the PNGT and on the basis of the representativeness of the population at the
national and regional level in order to allow for spatial comparison. Then, two to seven villages were selected by province using
three criteria: villages of provinces where the project intervenes directly, villages of provinces of indirect intervention of the project
and villages of provinces that are neither directly or indirect affected by the intervention. For this first stage, a total of 270 villages
were selected. At the second stage, three strata were further first constructed at village level to group households regarding the
possession of animal traction equipment, households which use but no own traction equipment and households which neither own
nor use traction equipment. Then, eight households were randomly selected within each selected village to be surveyed, making a
sample of 2160 households per round. In the second wave however, the sample has been refreshed. Among the 2160 households of
the first round, only 1200 were kept and a new sub-sample of 960 households was selected using the same sampling approach, and
added to make the full sample of the second round. For this study, only households that have complete information over the two
rounds of the survey, 1099, were considered to balance the panel. This survey data were obtained upon request to the director
manager of the PNGT-II.
2) Rainfall Data
Historical rainfall data obtained from the national institute of statistics (INSD) cover the period 1996-2011. From this historical
data, data for the years 2009 and 2010 are used to compute the rainfall deviation from its long-run mean. This reflects the need to
take into consideration the fact that, the surveys being held in the middle of each year, information on households’ farm outcome as
well as off-farm work decisions depend on rainfall distribution over the previous year. The data represents the annual rainfall
recorded from 10 meteorological stations distributed across the agro-ecological zones of the country. For each village, information
on rainfall are taken from the nearest meteorological station. Rainfall data are publicly available.
IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

This section presents descriptive statistics of the surveyed households and then the econometric results. Descriptive statistics
are discussed with focus on between-household variations. With respect to the econometrics results, three equations of off-farm
labor supply (wage, non-farm and the aggregated off-farm labor) are estimated separately to see how different segments of the off-
farm labor market respond to the weather risk.
A. Descriptive Statistics
Table 1 presents households’ characteristics by off-farm work status for the pooled sample. Alternative descriptive statistics by
off-farm work segments (wage work and non-farm work) and/or by year yield similar results, particularly with respect to the rainfall
variables (see Appendix 3 for off-farm per year). Unexpectedly, there were no significant differences between off-farm participants
and non-participants as rainfall factors are concerned. The results rather show significant differences in various pull and push factors
between the two groups of households. For instance, table 1 shows that off-farm participants were more endowed in labor, trained
members, landholdings and higher value of transport assets. On the other hand, non-participant were households with less dependents
and which experienced lower idiosyncratic health shocks. Furthermore, off-farm participant were households headed but younger
but with higher permanent income and less remittances. Finally, off-farm work is more likely in more populated communities and
where there were some interventions.
So far, the focus has been on how households’ characteristics vary across work status. However, an important assumption is
the differentiated return which may lead to poverty among intensive off-farm workers. Table 2 presents the source of households.
Despite the importance of income from off-farm sources, the relative importance of off-farm income decreases with wealth status
unlike farm income. Given that wealthier households have more means to overcome entry barriers and to bear potential consequences
of risk of returns, these results suggest that off-farm activities have likely lower return as compared to farming; otherwise they would
be more attractive to wealthier households.
TABLE I
HOUSEHOLDS’ CHARACTERISTICS BY OFF-FARM WORK STATUS (POOLED SAMPLE)
Non-Participants Participants Differences
mean Sd mean sd Diff t-stat
Rainfall risk 0.152 (0.020) 0.154 (0.026) -0.001 (-1.542)
Rainfall shock -67.966 (92.185) -67.261 (112.077) -0.705 (-0.162)
Rainfall mean (long run) 828.023 (137.300) 839.009 (149.165) -10.986 (-1.789)
Male adults 2.074 (1.369) 2.462 (1.660) -0.388*** (-6.004)
***
Female adults 2.700 (1.715) 2.978 (1.984) -0.277 (-3.507)
dependents 2.454 (1.784) 2.655 (2.116) -0.201* (-2.414)
Trained 0.173 (0.520) 0.291 (0.637) -0.118*** (-4.762)

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Health shock 0.453 (0.956) 0.613 (1.038) -0.160*** (-3.731)

Education of the head 0.496 (1.717) 0.930 (2.325) -0.434*** (-5.029)
Age of the head 49.577 (14.233) 47.738 (13.420) 1.839** (3.072)
Net regular remittances 6.576 (67.138) 5.755 (130.606) 0.822 (0.192)
Net occasional remittances 26.080 (124.034) 9.119 (79.630) 16.960*** (3.669)
Permanent income (log) 6.075 (0.472) 6.273 (0.562) -0.198*** (-8.942)
Land size 5.192 (4.113) 6.354 (5.817) -1.162*** (-5.482)
Livestock income (log) 23.883 (58.517) 27.848 (77.906) -3.965 (-1.363)
Value of transport assets 154.283 (200.152) 204.167 (272.628) -49.885*** (-4.947)
Population 1.326 (1.491) 1.873 (2.142) -0.547*** (-7.053)
Market in market 0.986 (0.119) 0.992 (0.092) -0.006 (-1.257)
Public program 0.012 (0.109) 0.024 (0.154) -0.012* (-2.216)
Presence of NGO 0.002 (0.049) 0.010 (0.097) -0.007* (-2.254)
Number of households 1255 943 2198
*** Significant at 1% level; ** Significant at 5% level; * Significant at 10% level
Notes: Participants are households which were engaged in any off-farm activity; Non-Participants are households which did only farming
TABLE II
SOURCE OF HOUSEHOLDS’ INCOME BY WEALTH CLASSES (POOLED SAMPLE)
Quartile 1 Quartile 2 Quartile 3 Quartile 4
Items Mean Percentage Mean Percentage Mean Percentage Mean Percentage
Farm income 57.2 61.2 63.4 57.48 76.2 64.6 276 86
Off-farm income 31.7 34 40.3 36.5 36.5 31 42.1 13
Remittances 4.5 4.8 6.6 6.02 5.2 4.4 3.2 1
Total income 93 100 110.4 100 118 100 322 100
Note: Farm income were calculated as the sum of net value of crop harvest and livestock sales, though livestock may not be subject to rainfall
risk as is cropping. However, it is worth noting that livestock income has similar level and distribution across wealth class as remittances.
B. Econometric results
The first two columns of table 3 present the econometric results for the determinants of wage labor and non-farm labor supply.
In these regressions, dependent variables are respectively the number of household members who worked against payment and the
number of people households have engaged in their non-farm business activities, including labor from family as well as hired labor.
The last column of table 3 presents the results for regression of the total off-farm labor against a similar set of regressors. Where
non-linear relationships were not significant, the squared of the variable were removed. The value of the Log-Likelihood indicates
a good fit for all equations and the Wald statistic of joint significance indicates that all three models are appropriate. Because, of the
short nature of the panel, the pooled sampled regressions of the above three equations have been undertaken and results were quite
similar (Appendix 4).
TABLE III
DETERMINANTS OF OFF-FARM LABOR SUPPLY
VARIABLES Wage Labor Supply Non-Farm Labor Supply Total Labor Supply
Weather Variables Coefficient z-statistic Coefficient z-statistic Coefficient z-statistic
Rainfall risk 11.99* (1.957) -149.7*** (-4.638) -114.3*** (-3.657)
Rainfall risk (squared) 531.5*** (4.536) 409.9*** (3.784)
Rainfall shock -4.88e-05 (-0.0606) -0.000577* (-1.714) -0.000228 (-0.866)
Households’ Characteristics
Male adults 0.141** (2.562) 0.0511* (1.916) 0.0396* (1.808)
Female adults 0.0797 (1.549) -0.00546 (-0.229) -0.0166 (-0.791)
Dependents -0.0639 (-1.329) -0.00376 (-0.217) -0.0132 (-0.968)
Trained members 0.257*** (2.965) 0.162*** (4.175) 0.143** (2.297)
Health shock 0.106 (1.515) 0.0608** (2.272) 0.0614** (2.009)
Education of the head 0.0456 (1.497) 0.00735 (0.465) 0.0153 (1.141)
Age of the head 0.0154 (0.0517) -0.268** (-2.208) -0.143 (-1.363)
Head is married -0.728* (-1.728) 0.0392 (0.130) -0.204 (-0.730)
Head is separated/widow -0.806 (-1.276) 0.190 (0.577) -0.213 (-0.587)
Net regular remittances -0.000911** (-2.211) -6.33e-05 (-0.452) -4.30e-05 (-0.389)
Net occasional remittances -0.00133 (-1.566) -0.00122*** (-3.131) -0.000861*** (-2.872)
Permanent income (log) -0.123 (-0.0562) 30.40*** (3.983) 2.660*** (3.578)
Permanent income (log, squared) -7.429*** (-3.724)
Land size -0.00693 (-0.332) -0.0312** (-2.081) -0.0209 (-1.409)
Land size (squared) 0.000638*** (2.848)
Livestock income (log) 0.0110 (0.925) 0.00405 (0.927) 0.00363 (1.003)

polocentre.org
icshge.org
VARIABLES Wage Labor Supply Non-Farm Labor Supply Total Labor Supply
Weather Variables Coefficient z-statistic Coefficient z-statistic Coefficient z-statistic
Value of transport assets (log) -0.0178 (-0.463) -0.00946 (-0.458) -0.00359 (-0.221)
Village Characteristics
Population 0.0418 (1.219) 0.0530*** (2.928) 0.0451 (1.554)
Access by vehicle all year 0.417** (2.094) 0.254*** (2.709) 0.220* (1.745)
Access by vehicle sometimes 0.317* (1.831) 0.210** (2.220) 0.196** (2.221)
Market in market 0.343 (0.908) 0.312 (0.672)
Public program -0.629 (-1.185) 0.167 (1.221) 0.0985 (0.904)
Presence of NGO 0.723*** (5.157) 0.425 (1.259)
Soudano-Sahelian -0.843*** (-3.903) -0.206** (-1.977) -0.255*** (-2.669)
Sahelian -1.303* (-1.695) -6.249*** (-3.901) -4.953*** (-3.636)
Year dummy 0.299** (1.981) 0.0242 (0.354) 0.0471 (0.818)
Constant -3.848 (-0.904) -20.93*** (-2.661) 2.465 (1.028)
Observations 2,197 2,197 2,197

Number of Households 1,099 1,099 1,099
Log Likelihood -1012 -1504 -1675
Chi-Squared 138 460.9 319.2
*** Significant at 1% level; ** Significant at 5% level; * Significant at 10% level;
Note: Robust z-statistics in parentheses next to estimates are based on cluster-robust standard errors using village as clusters.
The results indicate that rainfall variability positively affects wage labor supply consistently with the predicted portfolio effect
that households would adjust their activity portfolio away from the risky farm activity. On the other hand, table 3 shows a strong U-
shaped relationship between rainfall risk and non-farm labor supply. In line with the theoretical prediction, this means that, indeed,
for low levels of uncertainty, households would work less in non-farm activities (off-farm shifts occur later) while increasing non-
farm work for higher levels of uncertainty (off-farm shifts occur earlier). This may also reflect precaution as smallholder farm
households may increase work (in either or both) at the expense of leisure, aiming to reduce the likelihood of obtaining low income.
Indeed, precaution, in accordance with the theoretical framework, may be expressed in terms of aversion to loss; implying that risk
averse households will tend to pursue a minimum income level through the riskless activity. These findings are consistent with
results by Rose (2001) and Ito and Kurosaki (2009) for rural India, Menon (2009) for rural Nepal and, Bezu and Barrett (2010) for
rural Ethiopia.
Ex-post response to rainfall risk is limited to non-farm business employment, suggesting that only non-farm labor responds to
rainfall shocks. Where credit constraints are relevant (entry barriers), it would be expected that wage labor supply be more responsive
to shocks than non-farm business labor. However, households may meet requirements for starting some of these activities if they do
not involve high start-up costs. Secondly, though non-farm business activities may be subject to seasonality they may be carried
over time. Households that are subject to negative shocks would then need to increase labor for more outcome from previously held
businesses. Finally, there may be a synergy between farming and off-farm works at the community level, such that a positive rainfall
also enhances the demand for non-farm goods which increases the demand of non-farm labor. On the other hand, part of the demand
for wage labor comes from cropping activities which is not available after the shock realization. This may account for the fact that
wage labor supply is not significant. Likewise, health shock positively affects non-farm labor supply but not significantly wage
labor. It may be argued that health shocks reduce the farm labor force (given that other members might be mobilized for care) and
consequently available farm outcome; pushing households to work more in off-farm activities to supplement farm outcome.
While only households where the head still live with the spouse(s) supply less wage labor than single-headed ones, the effect
of age is only significant for non-farm labor. For instance, the former category of households may be able to generate more farm
outcome the effect of age may emphasize the role of time in accumulating farm assets, including land. The results of the income
regression (Appendix 1) indeed so a positive effect of this assets. Table 3 also shows that the number of male adults and trained
affect positively all labor equations. These results suggest that households’ labor supply depends on their respective labor resource
endowments and probably that working in the rural off-farm economy requires some physical skills. They also reveal the type of
human capital (improved work skills) which is key in the rural off-farm sector. This argument may be reinforced by the positive
effect associated with the dummy variable indicating whether a Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) intervenes in a specific
community for non-farm labor. Indeed, many NGOs have capacity building as a key component of their intervention, aiming at
improving the rural livelihood.
The effect of landholding exhibits a U-shaped profile with respect to non-farm business labor but not significant for wage labor.
Land represents the main asset to farming in such context. Then, as landholding increases and for a given level of risk, households
may tend to work more in the higher return farming at the expense of the low return off-farm activities. However, since landholdings
also indicate wealth, higher landholdings may be associated better access to capital that enables investments in higher return
segments of the off-farm sector as argued (Bezu and Barrett 2010). The effect of permanent income has a humped-shaped pattern
for non-farm labor supply but not statistically significant for wage labor. This means that first, the wealthier the household, the
higher labor engaged in non-farm business activities. But after reaching some level of wealth, households reduce the intensity of
non-farm work. Permanent income accounts for both abilities to invest and cope ex-post with risk. In this regard, the rise may reflect
ability to invest to stabilize income in the lower range of wealth while the decline reflects ability to pursue higher return from the

polocentre.org
icshge.org
risky activity. The amount of remittances received by a household on a regular basis is negatively associated with wage labor whereas
the amount of remittances received occasionally affects negatively affects non-farm labor supply. These results therefore emphasized
the role of non-farm labor in supplementing household farm income.
The results also show that the number of inhabitants of a village has a positive effect on non-farm labor supply. Population may
then reflect the potential demand for non-farm goods and services which drives the demand for non-farm labor. On the other hand,
village road quality affects positively and significantly both labor supplies, emphasizing the role connectedness and transaction
costs. Finally, unexpectedly the results indicate that households in less favorable agricultural areas (Soudano-Sahelian and Sahelian
zones) off-farm labor. With respect to the rainfall distribution, the Soudanian zone represents the highest agricultural potential zone.
A plausible explanation may be the potential synergy between the sectors of the rural economy, implying that the off-farm sector
may be more developed in more favorable agricultural areas. It is also possible that household income be more volatile in higher
potential agricultural zone as households may tend to focus on farming whereas rainfall variability may more important in such
zones.
V. CONCLUSION
This paper focused on the effect of weather risk on off-farm labor supply decisions among smallholder farm households in low-
income environments. The contention is that, while farming still yields higher returns on average, poor rainfall outcomes lead to
much lower returns compared to that from the rural off-farm activities. Then, a real option model was developed to analyze how
uninsured weather risk may lead to labor diversion towards less profitable off-farm activities among smallholder farm households
facing missing financial markets. Using historical rainfall data and a short panel data from Burkina Faso, evidence is found that
smallholder farm households’ wage labor supply increases with rainfall uncertainty while non-farm labor supply has a U-shaped
relation, consistently the predictions of the model. This suggests that real option framework better generates actual behavior of
smallholder farm households’ activity diversification decision. The empirical results also pointed out the role of rainfall shocks,
suggesting that off-farm work is used as means of income risk management. Finally, the results emphasized importance of poor risk
management mechanisms through the role of non-cropping income sources (remittances), entry constraints to higher yielding
segments of the off-farm sectors (number of trained and permanent income), transaction costs and demand factors (road quality and
population).
Therefore, unless proper risk management instruments are developed, off-farm labor supply will increase as weather uncertainty
is on the upward trend. Given the low development of the rural off-farm market, which keeps returns low, this may challenge the
achievement of poverty reduction. Boosting income generation capacities to reduce poverty then requires policies that focus on
mitigating the rainfall risk or reducing its impact on households’ well-being. Relevant policy measures include mechanisms of
consumption smoothing (promoting rural savings and credit markets, insurance schemes), the promotion of climate smart agriculture
(water and soil fertility managements) and regulatory measure aiming at improving return to off-farm activities.
VI. LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY AND SUGGESTION FOR FURTHER RESEARCH

Notwithstanding the recourse to historical rainfall data, the use of two consecutive year households survey data represents an
important limitation of this research. It is in recognizing this that this article focused on the pooled sample in discussing descriptive
statistics. Then, a longer panel would have enhanced the reliability of the results. Also, though rainfall data are collected over 16
years, they are yearly aggregated information from spatially-spare meteorological stations limiting the precision of village level
information in addition to ignoring intra-year variability. As suggested Sesmero, Ricker-Gilbert, and Cook (2017), further research
using high resolution weather outcomes may improve these findings. Another limitation of these results is related to use of the
number of off-farm workers because the time spent may vary from a worker to another; suggesting a need for further research based
on hour-time allocation. This was not feasible with this data. Finally, investigating the role of liquid assets (livestock and grain for
instance) in this behavioral response may inform identification of promising policy alternatives.
APPENDIX I
DETERMINANTS OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Total income (log)
VARIABLES coefficient z-statistic
Real farm capital (log) 0.0479*** 3.388
Livestock (TLU) 0.00618* 1.839
Poultry (TLU) 0.311*** 4.401
Clay land size 0.0651*** 6.597
Sandy land size 0.0673*** 7.005
Lateritic land size 0.0669*** 6.084
Dry land size 0.0819** 2.475
Gravelly land size 0.0579*** 6.248
Dependents 0.0234* 1.647
Male adults 0.0455** 2.519
Female adults 0.0159 0.854

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Age of the head (log) -2.454 -1.620

Age of the head (log, squared) 0.300 1.520
Land management 0.0369 0.659
Population 0.0344*** 2.753
Transport asset (log) 0.0539*** 4.800
Gender of the head 0.0112 0.0750
Education of the head 0.0167 0.531
Access to information 0.241*** 3.893
Climatic zone -0.0902* -1.743
Constant 9.827*** 3.409
Observations 2,164
R-squared 0.293
Number of households 1,099
Chi-squared 417.6
number of clusters 250
(***), (**), (*) Significant at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively
Note: Breusch and Pagan LM test for random effects: 𝜒 2 (01) = 58.82 P-Value: 0.0000
Education of the head (0 for no formal education, 1 for primary school attendance, 2 for secondary and tertiary, 3 for Madrassa education.
Tropical livestock unit (TLU) weights are: camel=1; horse=0.8; cattle=0.7; donkey=0.5; sheep=goat=0.1; pig=0.2; chicken birds & fowls=0.01;
other poultry=0.03
APPENDIX II
EXPLANATORY VARIABLE: DEFINITIONS AND MEASUREMENTS
VARIABLES Definition Measurement Expected

Sign
Risk Factors
Rainfall risk Coefficient of variation of rainfall (+)
Rainfall shock Deviation of rainfall from long-run mean Millimetres (-)
Household Characteristics
Male adults Number of male adults (+/-)
Female adults Number of female adults (+/-)
Trained members Number of trained members (+)
Health shock Number of injured or ill members (+)
Education of the head Years of schooling Years (+/-)
Age of the head Age of the head of the household Years (+/-)
Marital status of the head 0 single, 1 married, 2 if separated/widowed (+/-)
Dependents Number of inactive members (+/-)
Net regular remittances Net received regular transfers CFA (-)
Net occasional remittances Net received occasional transfers CFA (+/-)
Permanent income Predicted average income CFA (-)
Land size Total land holdings of the households Hectares (+/-)
Transport assets Value of transport assets CFA (+)
Livestock income Value of livestock sales CFA (+/-)
Village Characteristics
Population Size Number of inhabitants of the village (+)
Presence of NGO 1 if an NGO intervenes in the village, 0 otherwise (+/-)
Public Program 1 if there is an ongoing public development program in the (+/-)
village, 0 otherwise
Village access 1 if village is accessible by vehicle all the year, 2 only during (+)
dry season, 0 if not accessible at all
Agro-ecology 0 household is in the Soudanaian zone, 1 if in the Soudano- (+/-)
Sahelian and 2 if in the Sahelian
APPENDIX III
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION BY OFF-FARM WORK STATUS BY YEAR
2010 2011
Variables Participants Non-Participants Difference Participants Non-Participants Difference

(457) (644) (488) (613)
Long-run mean of rainfall 832.94 832.05 -0.89 844.71 823.8 -20.9**

(151.14) (136.22) (-0.1) (147.2) (138.4) (-2.41)
Rainfall shock -73.64 -69.068 4.57 -61.26 -66.81 -5.55
(109.68) (88.37) (0.76) (114.06) (96.07) (-0.87)
Rainfall risk 0.154 0.151 -0.003** 0.1527 0.1526 -0.0001
(0.027) (0.018) (-2.09) (0.023) (0.021) (-0.09)

polocentre.org
icshge.org
2010 2011
Variables Participants Non-Participants Difference Participants Non-Participants Difference
(457) (644) (488) (613)
(*** ), (**), (*) Significant at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively
REFERENCES
Bezu, Sosina, and Christopher B Barrett. 2010. “Activity Choice in Rural Non-Farm Employment (RNFE): Survival versus Accumulative Strategy.” 55034.
Munich. http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/55034/.
Cameron, A. Colin, and Pravin K. Trivedi. 2001. “Essentials of Count Data Regression.” In A Companion to Theoretical Econometrics, edited by Badi H. Baltagi,
331–48. Blackwell. http://cameron.econ.ucdavis.edu/research/CTE01preprint.pdf.
———. 2009. “Microeconometrics Using Stata.” Stata Press Books 5:706. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(00)00050-6.
———. 2013. “Count Panel Data.” Oxford Handbook of Panel Data Econometrics, in B. Baltagi Ed.
Carter, Michael R., and Travis J. Lybbert. 2012. “Consumption versus Asset Smoothing: Testing the Implications of Poverty Trap Theory in Burkina Faso.”
Journal of Development Economics 99. Elsevier B.V.:255–64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.02.003.
Coate, Stephen, and Martin Ravallion. 1993. “Reciprococity Without Commitment: Characterization and Performance OfInformal Insurance Arrangements.”
Journal of Development Economics 40:1–24.
Deaton, Angus. 1991. “Saving and Liquidity Constraints.” Econometrica 59 (5):1221–48. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938366.
Dennis, Benjamin N., and Talan B. Işcan. 2007. “Productivity Growth and Agricultural Out-Migration in the United States.” Structural Change and Economic
Dynamics 18 (1):52–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2005.11.003.
Dercon, Stefan. 1996. “Risk, Crop Choice, and Savings: Evidence from Tanzania.” Economic Development and Cultural Change 44 (3):485–513.
https://doi.org/10.1086/452229.
———. 1998. “Wealth, Risk and Activity Choice: Cattle in Western Tanzania.” Journal of Development Economics 55:1–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-
3878(97)00054-0.
Dercon, Stefan, and Luc Christiaensen. 2011. “Consumption Risk, Technology Adoption and Poverty Traps: Evidence from Ethiopia.” Journal of Development
Economics 96 (2):159–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2010.08.003.
Dercon, Stefan, and Pramila Krishnan. 1996. “Income Portfolios in Rural Ethiopia and Tanzania: Choices and Constraints.” Journal of Development Studies 32
(6):850–75. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220389608422443.
Dixit, Avinash. 1989. “Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty.” Journal of Political Economy. https://doi.org/10.1086/261619.
———. 1992. “Investment and Hysteresis.” The Journal of Economic Perspectives 6 (1):107–32. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2138376.
Dixit, Avinash K., and Robert S. Pindyck. 1994. “A New View of Investment.” In Investment under Uncertainty, 256. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
Dixit, Avinash, and Rafael Rob. 1994. “Switching Costs and Sectoral Adjustments in General Equilibrium With Uninsured Risk.” Journal of Economic Theory
62:48–69.
Fafchamps, Marcel, and Susan Lund. 2003. “Risk-Sharing Networks in Rural Philippines.” Journal of Development Economics 71:261–87.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(03)00029-4.
Fafchamps, Marcel, Christopher Udry, and Katherine Czukas. 1998. “Drought and Saving in West Africa: Are Livestock a Buffer Stock?” Journal of Development
Economics 55 (2):273–305. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(98)00037-6.
INSD. 2016. “Annuaire Statistique 2015.” Ouagadougou.
Ito, Takahiro, and Takashi Kurosaki. 2009. “Weather Risk, Wages in Kind, and the off-Farm Labor Supply of Agricultural Households in a Developing Country.”
American Journal of Agricultural Economics 91 (3):697–710. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2009.01270.x.
Jalan, Jyotsna, and Martin Ravallion. 2001. “Behavioral Responses to Risk in Rural China.” Journal of Development Economics 66:23–49.
Kazianga, Harounan, and Christopher Udry. 2006. “Consumption Smoothing? Livestock, Insurance and Drought in Rural Burkina Faso.” Journal of Development
Economics 79 (2):413–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2006.01.011.
Kurosaki, Takashi, and Marcel Fafchamps. 2002. “Insurance Market Efficiency and Crop Choices in Pakistan.” Journal of Development Economics 67 (2):419–53.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(01)00188-2.
Kwon, Chul-woo, Peter F Orazem, and Daniel M Otto. 2006. “Off-Farm Labor Supply Responses to Permanent and Transitory Farm Income.” Agricultural
Economics 34:59–67.
Lamb, Russell L. 2003. “Fertilizer Use, Risk, and Off-Farm Labor Markets in the Semi-Arid Tropics of India.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 85
(2):359–71. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1245132.
Ligon, Ethan, Jonathan P. Thomas, and Tim Worrall. 2002. “Informal Insurance Arrangements in Village Economies.” The Review of Economic Studies 69
(1):209–44. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-937X.00204.
Luong, Quoc V., and Loren W. Tauer. 2006. “A Real Options Analysis of Coffee Planting in Vietnam.” Agricultural Economics 35:49–57.
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2006.00138.x.
MAH, MEDD, and MRA. 2012. “Programme National Du Secteur Rural (PNSR) Du Burkina Faso 2011-2015.” Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
Mcdonald, Robert, and Daniel Siegel. 1986. “The Value of Waiting To Invest.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 101 (4):707–27.
https://doi.org/10.2307/1884175.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Menon, Nidhiya. 2009. “Rainfall Uncertainty and Occupational Choice in Agricultural Households of Rural Nepal.” Journal of Development Studies 45 (6):864–
88. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220380902807387.
MERH. 2015. “Plan National d’Adaptaion Aux Changements Climatiques (PANA) Du Burkina Faso.”
Miranda, Mario J., and Paul L Fackler. 2002. Applied Computational and Economic and Finance. MIT Press.
Mogues, Tewodaj. 2011. “Shocks and Asset Dynamics in Ethiopia.” Economic Development and Cultural Change. Vol. 60. https://doi.org/10.1086/661221.
Musshoff, Oliver, Martin Odening, Christian Schade, Syster Christin Maart-Noelck, and Serena Sandri. 2013. “Inertia in Disinvestment Decisions: Experimental
Evidence.” European Review of Agricultural Economics 40 (3):463–85. https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbs032.
Önel, Gülcan, and Barry K. Goodwin. 2014. “Real Options Approach to Inter-Sectoral Migration of U.S. Farm Labor.” American Journal of Agricultural
Economics 96 (4):1198–1219. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aau004.
Paxson, C. H. 1992. “Using Weather Variability to Estimate the Response of Savings to Transitory Income in Thailand.” The American Economic Review 82
(1):15–33. https://doi.org/10.2307/2117600.
Porter, Catherine. 2012. “Shocks, Consumption and Income Diversification in Rural Ethiopia.” Journal of Development Studies 48 (9):1209–22.
https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2011.646990.
Reardon, Thomas, Peter Matlcn, Harold Alderman, Alain De Janvry, Lawrence Haddad, Peter Hazell, Michael Lipton, et al. 1992. “Determinants and Effects of
Income Diversification amongst Farm Households in Burkina Faso.” The Journal of Development Studies 28 (2):264–96.
https://doi.org/10.1080/00220389208422232.
Richards, T imothy J., and Paul M. Patterson. 1998. “Hysteresis and the Shortage of Agricultural Labor.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 80:683–95.
Rijkers, Bob, and Mans Soderbom. 2013. “The Effects of Risk and Shocks on Non-Farm Enterprise Development in Rural Ethiopia.” World Development 45:119–
36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.10.013.
Rose, Elaina. 2001. “Ex Ante and Ex Post Labor Supply Response to Risk in a Low-Income Area.” Journal of Development Economics 64 (2):371–88.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(00)00142-5.
Rosenzweig, Mark R, and Hans P Binswanger. 1993. “Wealth, Weather Risk and the Composition and Profitability of Agricultural Investments.” The Economic
Journal 103 (416):56–78. https://doi.org/10.2307/2234337.
Sarkar, Sudipto. 2000. “On the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship in a Real Options Model.” Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 24:219–25.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1889(99)00005-6.
Sesmero, Juan, Jacob Ricker-Gilbert, and Aaron Cook. 2017. “How Do African Farm Households Respond to Changes in Current and Past Weather Patterns? A
Structural Panel Data Analysis from Malawi.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 100 (1):115–44. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aax068.
Song, Feng, Jinhua Zhao, and Scott M. Swinton. 2011. “Switching to Perennial Energy Crops under Uncertainty and Costly Reversibility.” American Journal of
Agricultural Economics 93 (3):764–79. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aar018.
Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. 2013. “Multiple Regression Analysis: Further Issues.” In Introduction to Econometrics: A Modern Approach.
Zimmerman, Frederick J., and Michael R. Carter. 2003. “Asset Smoothing, Consumption Smoothing and the Reproduction of Inequality under Risk and
Subsistence Constraints.” Journal of Development Economics 71:233–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(03)00028-2.
ENDNOTES
According to Marshallian rule of decision-making, individuals exercise investment decision when the discounted expected benefit exceeds the associated
discounted cost.
i. For instance, the net present value rule of resource allocation predicts off-farm relocation as soon as 1 − 𝑠(1 − 𝑖𝑡 ) > 𝐸𝑡 𝜔𝑡 while random utility theory as
soon as 𝑢[1 − 𝑠(1 − 𝑖𝑡 )] > 𝑢(𝐸𝑡 𝜔𝑡 )
ii. Indeed, from Equation (11), for household which is exercising the off-farm relocation for the first time (𝑖𝑡 = 0), the value is 𝑢[1] + 𝑉01 (𝜔𝑡+1 ). On the
other hand, for household that has already exercised the off-farm work (𝑖𝑡 = 1), the value is 𝑢[1 − 𝑠(1 − 𝑖𝑡 )] + 𝑉01 (𝜔𝑡+1 ).
iii. With 𝑉 ∗ (𝜔) = 𝛿𝐸𝜀 [𝑉𝑖0 (𝜔𝑡+1 ) − 𝑉𝑖1 (𝜔𝑡+1 )]. The option value of waiting still matters; and as it depends on the return uncertainty, the timing of the shift
decision will depend on it as well.
iv. Given some little rearrangements, the budget constraint can be recast as follow: 𝑐𝑡 = 𝜔0 [(1 − 𝑗𝑡 𝑙𝑡 )𝜔𝑡 + 𝑗𝑡 𝑙𝑡 ] − 𝑠(1 − 𝑖𝑡 )𝑗𝑡 . since 𝑙𝑡 < 1, 𝜔𝑡 and 𝑐𝑡 are
positively correlated.
v. The number of workers may not adequately reflect differences in the intensity of off-farm work as workers may spent different time in a particular type of
activity. Information on work time may be more appropriate. However, in these rural settings there are reasons to believe that number and work time will
be highly positively correlated.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Legislation, Resources and Rights: A Case Study of Forest Rights in India

Patel, T.,1,* Sharma, A.R.,1 and Tripathi, A.2
1
FLAME University, Pune, Maharashtra, 412115, India; * tirtha.patel@flame.edu.in
2
Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai, Maharashtra, 400088, India
Abstract—Since the late 19th century, policy-making in India with regard to forests has been focussed on procurement and
utilisation of forest products, first under the British colonial rule for urbanisation and industrialisation of Britain, and then post-
independence for the “national good and development”. Consequently, basic human and livelihood needs of the forest-dwelling
communities were pushed aside in this process and they were labelled as “encroachers” in their own homes. In order to redress
this historical injustice and strengthen the conservation regime of Indian forests, “The Scheduled Tribes and Other Forest
Dweller (Recognition of Forest Rights) Act”, under the nodal agency of the Ministry of Tribal Affairs (MoTA), simply referred
to as “FRA”, was passed by the Indian Parliament in 2006 and came into force in 2008. This paper seeks to employ an empirical
approach to recognise and comprehend the addressing of equity by FRA, the role of bureaucracy and gaps in its
implementation, and challenges posed by the legislation. As a result, using insights from the field, this paper will
comprehensively discuss the historical perspective (providing a detailed account of the state of forest legislation in India over
time), overview of the Act (2006), Rules (2008) and Amendments (2012), its implementation and challenges.
Keywords—forest governance, forest rights, India, social justice, forest conservation
I. INTRODUCTION
G LOBAL environmental policies and decision-making have its foundations in the Global North’s vision of the untouched
wilderness, when it comes to protection of the natural ecosystems and conservation of Protected Areas. Over the years,
this has translated into a trans-national belief that any form of anthropogenic interference disturbs the natural ecosystem, and
it is this belief that has permeated from international conservation agencies into all nations’ conservation agendas, making
them the guardians of biodiversity and leading to the development of the concept of Protected Areas (Kurian and Vinodan,
2018). As a result, the success of conservation worldwide is evaluated in terms of the size and number of these protected areas
(Ibid.). The area under conservation has almost doubled since 1990, and today there are more than one lakh protected areas
across the world, covering more than 12% of the earth’s landmass (Ibid.). This model of achieving environmental protection
by creating Protected Areas to isolate them from human interference, is called fortress conservation (Doolittle, 2007).
However, in developing countries, conservation policies being based on this western wilderness approach has led to
tremendous conflict between governments, institutions and the local population, since it has not only resulted in eviction and
marginalisation of the communities living in these areas, but also disregarded their dependence on these natural resources and
the fact that their knowledge and traditional practices might help in the conservation of these natural areas (Kurian and
Vinodan, 2018).
By the beginning of 21st century, the focus of the environmental discourse moved to climate change and greenhouse gas
emissions, leading to the flow of international funding for mitigation and adaptation to Asia. Herein, India attracted significant
attention, by the virtue of housing a “wide spectrum of biological, cultural, and geographic diversity”, along with “confluence
of three major biogeographic zones (the Indo–Malayan, the Eurasian, and the Afro-tropical)” (Sen and Lalhrietpui, 2006).
Currently, it is considered to be amongst the twelve most mega-diverse countries in the world, based on species richness and
endemism (Ibid.). Moreover, it is a home to 1.3 billion people, majority of who suffer from severe economic deprivation; it
houses world’s 20% population in less than 10% of its land (Kurian and Vinodan, 2018) (Ibid.). Consequently, tremendous
pressure of the international conservation policies was translated to the displacement of local communities, causing not only
multiple conflicts between governments, institutions and these ‘conservation refugees’, but also resistance from these
communities demanding social justice by restoration of their rights (Ibid.).
On the other hand, another common argument made to justify this displacement is that “forests” are ‘common-pool
resources’ (i.e. resources which are excludable and non-rival), and hence open to the possibility of ‘tragedy of the commons’.
On one hand, Hardin argued that “freedom in a common brings ruin to all” and that “natural selection favours the forces of
psychological denial. The individual benefits as an individual from his ability to deny the truth, even though society as a whole,
of which he is a part of, suffers” (Hardin, 1968). On the other hand, Ostrom argued that collective or common-pool resources
can be managed by individuals and communities as long as those who benefit from them are in close proximity to the resource.
Moreover, she emphasized on the importance of the bottom-up approach of polycentric governance and decentralization
(Ostrom, 1990). To this, in specificity of forest resources, Ramchandra Guha argued contextually that majority of the forest-
dependent communities in India are either settled marginal cultivators or shifting cultivators, who majorly dependent on forests
form their nutritional and livelihood needs; hence, with “their low population densities, low per capita resource demands,
cycles of materials closed on limited spatial scales, and a number of practices that promote sustainable resource use”, these
communities usually have minimal ecological impact (Guha (1999) as cited in Sen and Lalhrietpui, 2006) . Therefore, no
conservation initiative in India will be sustainable if it excludes the very communities, which are most dependent on the
resources it is targeted towards. This contentious issue is described by Amita Baviskar as follows: “various social groups bring
different agendas on board and conservation emerges as a contested terrain where, not just nature as wildlife, but nature as the
innate character of social being is staked and defended” (Baviskar (2003) as cited in Sen and Lalhrietpui, 2006).
Therefore, at a very foundational level, there exists a dichotomy between ‘anthropocentrism’ (where “non-human has

polocentre.org
icshge.org
only instrumental value to humans, that is humans take precedence and human responsibilities to the non-human are merely
based on benefits they confer on the human species”) and ‘ecocentrism’ (which is note life-centric or nature-centric, that is it
“includes both humans and non-humans”) (Kurian and Vinodan, 2018). However, it is interesting to note that humans are
considered essential in both these viewpoints, more in one than the other, and therefore, their exclusion cannot be explained
even by ecocentric opinions. Consequently, no discourse on sustainability or environmental conservation can or will ever exist
stand-alone, without inclusion of (a sometimes contradictory and sometimes complementary) discussion of social justice,
hence establishing the relevance of this paper in the sustainability discourse.
In India, defining the term “forest” itself has been a major challenge, and consequently so has its governance. Despite
having multiple legislations regarding forest governance, there exists no definite phrase or sentence that unambiguously
explains what constitutes as ‘forest’. However, apart from these forests being ‘contested spaces’ by definition, they have also
been long debated over in terms of their control and ownership. This is can be clearly noticed in the manner of its evolution,
which can be studied from the existing literature on forest legislation in India. However, one of the biggest gaps in this literature
is the absence of one established, exhaustive, evaluative and analytical genealogy of different national legislations addressing
forest governance.
Therefore, apart from discussing in detail the existing legislation addressing equity in these contested spaces (i.e. Forest
Rights Act, Rules and Amendment) using insights from the field, this paper also provides a comprehensive genealogy of
national legislations addressing forest governance in India. Hence, the paper is divided into the following sections: Historical
Overview of Forest Legislations in India, Overview of the Act (2006), Rules (2008) and Amendment (2012), Implementation
and Ambiguities in the Law and Resulting Challenges.
II. HISTORICAL OVERVIEW OF FOREST LEGISLATIONS IN INDIA

Enacted during the colonial rule, the first piece of forest legislation in India, the Indian Forest Act of 1865 was emphasised
on acquiring forest areas for creating timbre reserves for the British government. This was the beginning of objective-oriented
forestry in India; it defined greater control of state over forest resources, which were earlier open to the public (Singhal, 2006).
This Act was then replaced by the Indian Forest Act of 1878, which was aimed at extending the British government’s control
over forests. It vaguely categorized forests legally (based on its administration), socially (based on land use) and ecologically
(based on land-cover), into three main categories: Reserved, Protected and Village forests (Ibid.). By restricting public access
to forest resources, especially in the Reserved Forests, this Act abridged the existing rights of local communities, which were
heavily dependent of the forest resources for their livelihood. This was followed by the Forest Policy of 1894, which advocated
the importance of meeting the needs of local communities, but emphasised more on the practice of forest management for
maximising revenue generation (Ibid.).
During this period, the term ‘forest tribes’ was not a separate category; along with other categories, like ‘hill tribes’,
‘Adivasis’, ‘criminal and wandering tribes’ and ‘untouchables’, it fell under the head of “Depressed Classes” (Joseph, 2018).
It was only in 1919 that the Indian French Committee realised the importance of separating them from the “Depressed Classes”,
and creating an entire separate category head for them (Ibid.). In the 1931 Census, this population of tribal people were referred
to as “Primitive Tribes”. It was only after independence that the tribal population in India came to be termed as “Scheduled
Tribes” in the Constitution (Ibid.).
In 1958, India ratified the Indigenous and Tribal Populations Convention of 1957, which is an International Labour
Organisation Convention within United Nations, aimed at recognising and protecting “cultural, religious, civil and social rights
of indigenous and tribal populations within any independent country”, and providing a “standard framework for addressing
the economic issues that many of these groups faced” (Srinivas and Kiran, 2018). This Convention was later updated in 1989,
and termed ‘Convention Concerning Indigenous and Tribal Peoples in Independent Countries’(Ibid.). It increased its
expectations to providing more protection for indigenous populations by enhancing their quality of life, through education,
employment, land rights, etc., while still preserving their identity and culture as a separate group. So far, only 20 nations have
ratified this new document, India not being one of them (Ibid.).
The Indian Forest Act of 1878 was re-enacted in 1927. Post-independence, this became the country’s guiding forestry
legislation aimed at consolidating the law related to forests, transit and duty levied on timbre and other forest produce (World
Resources Institute, 2014). Even though the Forest Policy of 1952 focussed on the ecological and social aspects of forestry, it
nudged towards restricted use of forest resources by the forest-adjoining village communities. It portrayed this as ‘meeting the
needs of the local populations, but not at the cost of national interest’ (Singhal, 2006). In 1976, under the 42nd Amendment of
Indian Constitution, ‘forests’ were transferred from the state list to the concurrent list, hence revoking the powers of state
governments to alter land use in state forests. This was followed by the Forest Conservation Act of 1980, which prohibited the
use of forest land for non-forestry purposes. As a result, the state governments no longer had the ability of resolving any
longstanding forestland conflicts (Kashwan, 2017).
Around the same time, the Draft Forest Bill of 1980 was proposed, which set out the process of authorising the empowerment
of forest officers / police officers to arrest any individual, who rose reasonable suspicion of committing a forest offence,
without a warrant (Kashwan, 2017). However, this bill was never passed, due to the unwavering efforts of various forest and
land rights groups who jointly led various social and political mobilisations. These activist groups, along with the support of
various political actors in key positions, organised mass protests and marches, which led to the enactment of the Panchayat
Extension to the Scheduled Areas Act of 1996 (PESA) (Bose, 2010). This Act recognised the tribal communities’ rights to

polocentre.org
icshge.org
determine appropriate use and management of local community resources. Even though it failed to transform local governance,
it definitely became an important legal anchor for advocating Adivasi forest and land rights; moreover, decisions regarding
resource management could no longer be unilaterally taken by governments or private organisations, without the informed
consent of the affected communities (Kashwan, 2017).
Furthermore, the Forest Policy of 1952 was amended in 1988 to add consideration of people’s involvement in forest
management and protection of their customary access rights. This is where the concept of Joint Forest Management (JFM) was
first introduced (Sen and Lalhrietpui, 2006). It was aimed at offering a new answer to the same old conservation questions, by
recognising that meeting local needs and involvement of local communities in forest management go hand in hand. This
initiative was further detailed by the Government of India in the Joint Forest Management Guidelines of 1990 (Lele, 2017).
However, being just guidelines, it did not have any legislative backing. As a result, “participation” only ended up being a
proposed instrument, but not a goal. Not only did it place the control of this process in the hands of forest officials (by not
clearly distinguishing between their operational and regulatory roles), but it also tightly restricted participation/ involvement
of local communities to degraded forests and hence to the margins, therefore not actually benefiting them in anyway (Lele,
2017).
However, in spite of PESA and JFM, the push of 1980s’ economic growth was strong enough to officially divert 9,21,760
hectares of state forestland for non-forestry activities, 94% of which comprised large-scale development projects, like dams,
mines, roads, etc. (Kashwan, 2017). In 2001, the Supreme Court issued an order restraining the union government from
legalising any forest encroachment without its permission (Ibid.). In light of this, the state forestry agencies began evicting
anyone who had occupied forestland in the post-1980 period (Ibid.). It was this nationwide eviction campaign that triggered
the formation of the Campaign for Survival and Dignity (CSD), due to the serious cases of violence and human rights violations
(Ibid.). These events, having taken placed during 2002, allowed CSD to strategically pressurise political parties to take some
action against this injustice, by threatening to boycott the 2004 parliamentary elections (Ibid.).
As a result, post-2004 elections, the Ministry of Tribal Affairs (MoTA) was asked to draft a comprehensive legislation
for resolving the longstanding forestland conflicts. This effort was heavily contested by the Ministry of Environment and
Forests (MoEF), which argued that “FRA represented an attempt to compensate for the failures on the economic development
front, by gifting away the country’s forest heritage” (Bose, 2010). This problematic, elite and exclusionary view of the forests
being pristine landscapes that need to be protected from human touch, resulted in the exclusion of the wildlife reserves from
the Forest Rights Bill (Kashwan, 2017). On the contrary, while arguing against FRA by justifying as keeping forests untouched
by humans, MoEF was also pushing for the Environmental Impact Assessment Notification (released in the same year as that
of FRA), which was aimed at opening up forests to the corporate/ developmental sector, in good faith (Bhullar, 2008).
Since this Bill proposed before the parliament in 2005 was only limited to Forest Dwelling Scheduled Tribes (FDSTs), it
generated a lot of the tension within as well as outside the parliament, regarding the non-inclusion of non-Adivasi forest-
dependent groups who had also fallen prey to the injustices of the past (Kashwan, 2017). As a result, the Bill was referred to
a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC), which led not only to expanding the Bill’s purview to Other Traditional Forest
Dwellers (OTFDs), but also finally to the passing of ‘The Scheduled Tribes and Other Traditional Forest Dwellers (Recognition
of Forest Rights) Act (FRA)’ in 2006 (Kashwan, 2017). Therefore, the enactment of FRA was an outcome of the unintended
political opportunity structure created by this intersection of economic liberalisation, political competition, and environmental
conservation (Kashwan, 2017). In 2007, this was followed by India adopting the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of
Indigenous Peoples (United Nations Office of High Commissioner, 2013), which emphasised on the “rights of the indigenous
people to maintain and strengthen their own institutions, cultures and traditions, and to pursue their development in keeping
with their own needs and aspirations” (Srinivas and Kiran, 2018).
III. OVERVIEW OF THE ACT (2006), RULES (2008) AND AMENDMENT (2012)
The introduction of the Act, emphasises that the motive behind this Act, was not only to correct the historical injustice
meted out towards FDSTs and OTFDs, but also to strengthen the conservation regime of Indian Forests (United Nations
Development Programme, Ministry of Tribal Affairs, Government of India, 2014).
A. Types of Claimants
FRA proposes two major types of claimants: FDSTs defined as “members or community of Scheduled Tribes who
primarily reside in and depend on forests or forestlands for bona fide livelihood needs and includes the Scheduled Tribe
pastoralist communities”, and OTFDs defined as “any member or community who has for at least three generations prior to
13th Day of December, 2005 primarily resided in and who depend on the forest or forests land for bona fide livelihood needs”
(United Nations Development Programme, Ministry of Tribal Affairs, Government of India, 2014). In these definitions, the
term “bona fide livelihood needs” was not defined/explained precisely. Due to various questions and queries being raised
regarding this, it later came to be clarified in the 2012 Amendment Rules of this Act. Herein, it was defined as “fulfilment of
livelihood needs of self and family through exercise of any of the rights specified in sub-section (1) of Section 3 of the Act
and includes sale of surplus produce arising out of exercise of such rights” (Ibid.). The 2012 Amendment Rules also clarified
that having “primarily resided in forests or forest land” meant that the claimant was required to have a proof of residence in
forests for a period of 75 years, not necessarily without interruption, or in the same exact village as one’s ancestor (Ibid.).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
B. Types of Rights
FRA declares three different types of forest rights for FDSTs and OTFDs, namely, individual rights, community resource
rights and community development rights which are heritable, but not alienable or transferable (i.e. in absence of a direct heir,
the right should pass to the next-of-kin). Individual rights include the rights of habituation and cultivation of up to four hectares
of forest land (United Nations Development Programme, Ministry of Tribal Affairs, Government of India, 2014). The
community resource rights include: right to habitation, right to ownership, access to collection, use and disposal of minor forest
produce which has been traditionally collected within or outside the customary village boundaries, right over water bodies,
grazing lands, fish and traditional seasonal resources, right to protect, regenerate, conserve or manage any community forest
resource and right to access biodiversity, intellectual property, and traditional knowledge related to biodiversity and cultural
diversity (Ibid.). On the other hand, the community development rights include: right to divert forest land only for facilities
specified by the Government in the Act (like schools, hospitals, electric and telecommunication lines, etc.), which involves
felling of trees not exceeding 75 trees per hectare. However, the Act also clearly states that clearance for any such
developmental activities is required to be recommended by the Gram Sabha, before beginning the felling of trees (Ibid.).
Apart from these above-mentioned rights, the forest rights holders also have any other traditional rights that they enjoy
(which may not be distinctly mentioned in the legislation), excluding the traditional right of hunting or trapping or extracting
body parts of any species or wild animals (United Nations Development Programme, Ministry of Tribal Affairs, Government
of India, 2014). In order to avoid future friction between environmental conservation and social justice seen historically, this
Act clearly states no forest rights holders should have their rights affected for the purpose of wildlife conservation unless, it is
established by government authorities that the activities and presence of these people are sufficient to cause irreversible damage
to the said species and habitat, and a an alternate resettlement package is prepared and communicated to these people (Ibid.).
C. Types of Resources
The various resources included in the purview of FRA include land and forest resources. Land resources include forest
lands (defined as “any land falling under the description of a forest area, including unclassified, undemarcated, protected and
reserved forests, sanctuaries and national parks”), community forest resource (defined as “customary common forest land
within the traditional boundaries of the village”) and critical wildlife habitats (defined as “areas of National Parks and
Sanctuaries where it has been specifically and clearly established, case by case, on the basis of scientific and objective criteria,
that such areas are required to be kept as inviolate for the purposes of wildlife conservation as may be determined and notified
by the Central Government in the Ministry of Environment and Forests after open process of consultation by an Expert
Committee”) (United Nations Development Programme, Ministry of Tribal Affairs, Government of India, 2014). On the other
hand, forest resources include community forest resource (defined as seasonal use of landscape to which the community had
traditional access) and minor forest produce (defined as “all non-timbre forest produce (NTFP) of plant origin”). (Ibid.).
D. Process and Authorities Responsible
Even though the Act of 2006 mentions all the authorities responsible and procedures to be followed for the recognition
and vesting of forest rights, it does not clearly state the composition of these authorities and their definite functions; these are
clearly stated in the 2012 Amendment Rules. Herein, it discusses in detail the procedure for filing, determining and verifying
the forest rights claims. Gram Sabha, defined as “a village assembly that consists of all the people residing in a village that are
a part of the electoral procedure of the Indian constitution” (Jain and Sharma, 2015), is given the responsibility to call for
claims (both for individual rights as well as community rights), initiate the process of determination of these claims, and
constitute, monitor and authorise Forest Rights Committee (FRC) to prepare, verify and accept claims (United Nations
Development Programme, Ministry of Tribal Affairs, Government of India, 2014). Moreover, it has the power to delineate
areas for each of the recommended claims and pass a resolution to this effect, control FRC’s decisions about issuance of transit
permits, preparation of the conservation management plans and integration of these plans with Forest Department’s plans
(Ibid.).
The information regarding these resolutions is then forwarded to the Sub-Divisional Level Committee [constituted of a
chairperson (Sub-Divisional Officer), Forest officer in-charge of the Sub-Division, three members of the Block or Tehsil-level
Panchayats to be nominated by the District Panchayat, and an officer of the Tribal Welfare Department in-charge of the Sub-
division], who is responsible for collating, consolidating and examining these resolutions and forwarding them to the District
Level Committee (United Nations Development Programme, Ministry of Tribal Affairs, Government of India, 2014). The
District Level Committee [constituted of a chairperson (District Collector/ Deputy Commissioner), Divisional Forest Officer,
three members of the District Panchayats to be nominated by the District Panchayat, and an officer of the Tribal Welfare
Department in-charge of the District] has the power to finally approve these claims and issue directions for their incorporation
in the relevant government records (Ibid.).
The monitoring of this entire procedure, along with the final verdict on resettlement management plans is the
responsibility of the State Level Monitoring Committee (constituted of Chief Secretary, Secretary of the Revenue Department,
Secretary of the Tribal and Social Welfare Department, Secretary of the Forest Department, Secretary of the Panchayati Raj,
Principal Chief Conservator of Forests and three Scheduled Tribes member of the Tribes Advisory Council, to be nominated
by the Chairperson of the Tribes Advisory Council) (United Nations Development Programme, Ministry of Tribal Affairs,
Government of India, 2014).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Figure 1. Process and Authorities Responsible for Vesting of Forest Rights.
IV. IMPLEMENTATION
A. Status of Implementation
According to the 2011 census, the Scheduled Tribes (ST) population constitutes 8.6% of the country’s total population
and 11.3% of country’s total rural population. It accounts to 104.5 million people (Ministry of Tribal Affairs, Government of
India, 2017). Compared to 5.2% in 1951, the ST population has increased to 8.6% in 2011 (Joseph, 2018). Economic
backwardness amongst this population is evident (Srinivas and Kiran, 2018). As per the National Sample Survey
Organisation’s (NSSO) estimates, percentage of ST population living below the poverty line in India during 2009-10 was
47.4% in rural areas and 30.4% in urban areas; in 2011-12 this number was reduced to 45.3% in rural areas, and 24.1% in
urban areas. Till 31st October, 2017, 4,189,827 claims (4,050,131 individual and 139,696 community claims) have been filed
and 1,824,271 titles (1,759,955 individual and 64,316 community claims) have been recognized in India; a total of 2,365,556
(56.45%) claims have been disposed of. The extent of forest land for which titles were distributed in India, total to
14,104,744.77 acres (4,119,650 acres for individual rights and 9,985,095 acres for community rights) (Ministry of Tribal
Affairs, Government of India, 2017).
Figure 2. State-wise Implementation of FRA, 2006 as on 31st October, 2017. Source: Ministry of Tribal Affairs Annual Report from 2017-2018 1
While the data released by the Ministry of Tribal Affairs (at the national level) and the respective Tribal Welfare
Departments (at state levels) used in the previous section gives us absolute numbers for titles and area recognised, the biggest
impediment to being able to analyse the question of equity in the implementation of FRA is the non-availability of
1
Ministry of Tribal Affairs, Government of India, 2017. Annual Report. Ministry of Tribal Affairs, India.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
disaggregated data. However, ground level empirical studies along with discussions with implementing agencies and non-
government supporters indicates that this data vacuum masks critical inequities that are fostering due to some ambiguity in the
Act, but more importantly because of improper implementation and even outright violations. The studies were conducted
primarily in Maharashtra, but also in Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Odisha.
B. Exclusion of Other Traditional Forest Dwellers (OTFDs)
One of the major issues that surfaced was the exclusion of OTFDs in FRA and FRA implementation. It is clear from the
definition of OTFD in FRA itself, that there are additional criteria for claiming forest rights as OTFDs, compared to FDSTs;
that is, they are required to provide evidence of having resided in forests or forest land for at least three generations prior to
13th Day of December, 2005. Apart from the extremely low probability of physically having this form of evidence in the first
place, the fact that majority of these communities were evicted and displaced in the past (either during the colonial rule or
post-independence) makes it almost impossible for them to be even considered OTFD. As explained in the Historical
Overview, this disparity has roots in disagreements amongst the various state and non-state actors involved in the
conceptualisation and drafting of the FRA, on whether non-tribal would be included in the scope of the Act. In terms of FRA
implementation, the exclusion of OTFDs takes place at two levels - the first is the under-recognition of their individual rights
(due to claims not being filed and high rejections) and the second is their under-representation in committees for managing
community rights. Out of the four states studied, three, i.e. Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Odisha, made available data on
claims and recognition for tribal and non-tribal separately. OTFDs make up a low percentage of total claimants and an even
smaller portion of title receivers, with extremely high rejection rates.
TABLE I
SEGREGATED DATA ON FRA IMPLEMENTATION FOR OTFDS (FIRST PUBLISHED IN THE WIRE) 2
% of claims by OTFDs (out of total % of titles received by OTFDs (out of total titles
State Rejection rates for OTFDs
claims) received)
Chhattisgarh 27 6.1 90
Maharashtra 30 15.5 84
Odisha 2 0.1 98
Two important factors that contribute to the exclusion of OTFDs in the FRA are:
1. Low Priority and Misinformation: Non-tribal are not a priority for state implementing agencies as well as facilitating
activists and NGOs, many of whom perceive tribal as the ‘deserving’ category. Many ground level government and
non-government workers, as well as the OTFDs themselves, are severely mis-informed about eligibility for claims
and representation in committees.
2. Social Dynamics: There is a history of non-tribal being treated as outsiders in forested areas, particularly in Scheduled
Areas, where Scheduled Castes and Other Backward Classes fall below tribal in many village hierarchies. Prima facie
evidence shows SC/ OBC households to be marginalised more likely to be landless and resource dependent, with less
representation in village institutions. While rural Dalit communities do have agency and political representation, the
particular issues of forest dwelling SC/ OBC communities due to wrongful rejection of their rights have not been
highlighted.
C. Habitat Rights of Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Groups (PVTGs)
PVTGs is a sub-category of STs, with distinct societies and cultures rooted in their territories and forests. Most recognise
themselves as part of a larger clan of villages with shared bio-cultural territories. The Habitat Rights for PVTGs is an important
provision in the FRA which recognise their “rights including community tenure and habitation” which was further clarified by
the Ministry of Tribal Affairs to include customary territories used for “habitation, livelihoods, social, economic, spiritual and
other purposes”. There are 75 listed PVTGs in India, with a population of about 28 lakhs. However, only a few scattered claims
have been filed for Habitat Rights and just two titles have been issued in the whole country (first published in The Wire) 3.
Some of the reasons for these almost negligible recognition of Habitat Rights are:
1. Extremely complex application process: The claim filing process is an extremely challenging one, which requires
physical mapping of the area being filed. The areas are usually remote and treacherous and the process involve
coordination between multiple villages.
2. Lack of understanding of the nature of Habitat Rights: State agencies as well as non-state facilitators have not
completely understood the idea of Habitat Rights, as well as the process of filing for them. Even though PVTGs are
2
Sharma, A., 2018. The ‘Other’ in the Forest Rights Act Has Been Ignored for Years [WWW Document]. The Wire. URL: https://thewire.in/rights/the-other-
in-the-forest-rights-act-has-been-ignored-for-years (accessed 10.18.18).
3
Sharma, A., 2018. Maharashtra Denies Habitat Rights to the Most Backward Tribal Communities [WWW Document]. The Wire. URL:
https://thewire.in/environment/maharashtra-denies-habitat-rights-to-the-most-backward-tribal-communities (accessed 10.18.18).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
a small number compared to STs and OTFDs, addressing their concerns has remained a low priority for these vital
agencies.
3. Overlap of territories with mining and protected areas: The areas where PVTGs can potentially claim Habitat Rights
also happen to be spaces which are rich in wildlife as well as minerals. Although these two are quite different types
of resources, in effect they have had a similar impact on these communities. Lucrative mining prospects have led to
displacement, denial or rights and degradation of traditional lands, while exclusionary conservation policy has
displaced them and prevented access to resource and livelihood. The same continues, as the few efforts for filing
Habitat Right claims are being met with severe resistance.
D. Representation of Women
With regard to the representation of women, the Forest Rights Act, as an act is significantly gender inclusive; it insists on
individual titles to be issued jointly in the name of both the man and woman. Moreover, there are also provisions in the FRA
Rules (2008) that ensure representation of women in committees involved both in filing cases as well as managing community
rights. However, investigations on ground show that the situation is far from ideal.
In many places claimants as well as implementers and facilitators are not aware of FRA provision of joint title, or do not
take it seriously. Even where joint titles are issued, the question on equitable inheritance for female children remains open.
Since a lot of the forested areas come under PESA, customary laws on inheritance take precedence, which usually only pass
property to male children.
When it comes to representation in committees, the reservation for women remains as successful as similar reservation
provisions for various other committees. Ensuring representation can only go so far in a patriarchal set-up where women have
never asserted themselves and remain silent spectators, or even absentees in community discussions.
V. AMBIGUITIES IN THE ACT AND RESULTING CHALLENGES

It took more than three decades of constant struggle and many more years of injustice, for the enactment of the Forest
Rights Act of 2006 which legitimises forestland rights for FDSTs and OTFDs (Kashwan, 2017). Despite this, the resulting
legislation did/does not meet its proposed objectives, as statistically displayed above. This is due to the various lacunae in the
legislation itself, leading to various institutional and procedural challenges in its implementation.
First of all, most of the “tribal” population in India is clubbed under the administrative category of “Scheduled Tribes
(ST)”, which is ‘neither comprehensive, nor always sociologically valid’ (Sen and Lalhrietpui, 2006). This is because over
generations, these people have harmoniously/ symbiotically lived and interacted with other communities, classified as “castes”
and the politics surrounding these identities is incredibly complex; this complexity is not exactly addressed by the current
forest rights legislation. Moreover, self-identification, as suggested in the International Labour Organisation’s (ILO)
Convention Concerning Indigenous and Tribal Peoples on Independent Countries, Geneva, is highly controversial and
debatable, hence having the potential to lead to various errors in policy-planning and execution (Ibid.). To avoid these
contentions, Sen and Lalhrietpui suggest identifying these stakeholders at local levels in a way which is beneficial to both them
as well as the forest ecosystem to which they belong; this would take into account numerous cultural constructions regarding
human-forest interactions and their power structures and agencies (Ibid.).
Second of all, this legislation recognises rights of the people to a particular area/state, which is not always applicable
(particularly for the nomadic tribes, who are then forced to settle down in one place). Moreover, by doing this, it ignores the
fact that most of these communities were considered to be “encroachers” in the past and were forced to migrate to other areas,
either under the colonial rule or as a result of displacement by mining projects, construction of dams, and other developmental
projects. As discussed in the case of exclusion of OTFDs, this also raises issues in the provision of evidence for eligibility by
most of these communities, since these claimants are required to provide proof of residence in forests for a period of 75 years
(in case of FDSTs) and additional to this, evidence of residence in forests for at least three generations (in case of OTFDs). As
a result, it eliminates a huge chunk of communities and individuals from this jurisdiction, by considering them to be ineligible
for claiming these rights.
Thirdly, despite taking into consideration the powers and responsibilities of Gram Sabha, which makes this legislation
democratic in nature, it is important to note that there is still tremendous bureaucratic involvement, especially vested through
the powers of Sub-Divisional Level Committee, Divisional Level Committee and State Level Monitoring Committee (to
approve the claims recommended or filed by Gram Sabha), which restricts the reach of benefit. This is having some serious
implications. For instance, one of the accepted proofs of evidence for eligibility was the penalty receipts from the Forest
Department issued for certifying existence of the “illegally” farmed forest spaces. In majority of the cases, forest officials are
paid off to attain these receipts, hence leading to the benefits of this legislation being limited to only comparatively well-off
forest-dependent communities, and leaving out the poor forest-dependent communities (Sen and Lalhrietpui, 2006). Over the
years, this trend has reinforced “a formidable cognitive barrier among potential FRA claimants”. There have also been cases
where local leaders, working closely with forest officials and later being elected to the village-level FRA committees, block
the implementation of FRA within their limits of influence (Kashwan, 2017).
Herein, the decentralisation of the forestry regime in India is much needed. Rather than generalising the process of
defining sustainable use and conservation, it is important to make it more context-specific, consultative, transparent and
decentralised (that is by giving some amount of decision-making power regarding forest management to the local
communities). Herein, the large amounts of Compensatory Afforestation Fund Management and Planning Authority’s

polocentre.org
icshge.org
(CAMPA) funds (majority of which goes to the Forest Departments), can also be allocated to the Gram Sabhas with
Community Forest Resource Rights (Lele, 2017).
Fourthly, the definition of the critical wildlife habitats in the legislation is extremely vague; it is defined as “such areas
of National Parks and Sanctuaries where it has been specifically and clearly established, case by case, on the basis of scientific
and objective criteria, that such areas are required to be kept as inviolate for the purposes of wildlife conservation as may be
determined and notified by the Central Government in the Ministry of Environment and Forests after open process of
consultation by an Expert Committee” (United Nations Development Programme, Ministry of Tribal Affairs, Government of
India, 2014) , hence leaving this again to the discretion of bureaucrats. The Forest Rights Bill, which was proposed in 2005,
suggested the granting of provisional rights of five-year period to all the tribal individuals and communities that lived in the
core areas of sanctuaries and national parks (Bhullar, 2008). It proposed that they could be evicted from these areas, but only
with due compensation, and if they weren’t relocated during their five-year period, their rights would become permanent
(Ibid.). Since this arbitrary approach lacked a scientific basis, the revised bill suggested determining something called “critical
wildlife habitat”, jointly by MoEF and MoTA based on the guidelines that provide details on the nature of data to be collected,
the process of collection, validation of this data, its interpretation, etc. (Ibid.). However, the final Rules that were released in
2008, completely eliminated this approach, leaving it entirely upon MoEF to take these decisions (Ibid.).
Moreover, while discussing the conditions for relocation and rehabilitation of these communities, the Act fails to define
several key terms like “irreversible damage”, “co-existence” and “free informed consent” (Bhullar, 2008). Even though this
legislation stresses on prior, informed consent of Gram Sabhas and written assent from individual families for proposed
resettlement packages, the process of obtaining consent in India is extremely problematic; previous case studies conducted on
displacement, relocation and rehabilitation bring forth the reality, wherein people are made to sign agreements without official
disclosure of project-related information. Moreover, these communities do not invest in long-term infrastructure, especially
for their homes, from the fear of possible displacement in the future (Kurian and Vinodan, 2018).
Last but not the least, FRA sets procedures in place for verifying, recording and vesting of the individual and community
forest rights; however, it does not define an institutional structure for a post-CFR (Community Forest Rights) landscape, hence
leaving the fulfilment of its actual aims and objectives incomplete (Kashwan, 2017). These implementation failures (both
institutional and procedural) can be attributed, not only to the tenacity of the power relations and tremendous involvement of
bureaucracy into these institutional niches, but also to the absence of state-society networks and basic awareness of the
eligibility criteria and process among these forest-dependent communities.
VI. CONCLUSION
This paper adds to the repository of knowledge on forest legislations and governance in India by laying out one single
established, exhaustive, evaluative and analytical genealogy of different national legislations addressing forest governance.
The attempt is to provide with an overall and ordered perspective of the past legislations and governance decisions and trace
their evolution over time. It also discusses the necessary details and provisions of the Forest Rights Act, its Rules and
Amendment, along with its implementation, ambiguities and resulting challenges thereof. The historical overview of the forest
legislations in India suggests that there has been a shift from resource-based approach to participatory approach and
subsequently, to rights-based approach in forest governance through the enactment of FRA. Insights from field stories suggest
that the implementation of the act has been lopsided in terms of the realisation of the rights of the OTFDs (Other Traditional
Forest Dwellers), PVTGs (Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Groups) and women. One major factor responsible for this is the lack
of education and awareness about the act not just in the communities but also in the institutional architecture that deals with
the implementation of the FRA and the role of bureaucracy in the same. In addition, there are several ambiguities in the wording
and practices of the act that posit a number of challenges in its implementation.
In order to address the above-mentioned issues, disseminating knowledge of the act and its procedures in the community
is essential so that people are able to access individual forest rights, community forest rights and community forest resource
rights for use and access to forestland and resources. It is imperative that forest-dependent communities are empowered for
sustainable development and conservation through democratic forest governance as enshrined in the FRA. For this purpose, it
is essential to strengthen the civil society through education, information and community organisation. So far, only few case
studies have been conducted that look into the substantive aspects of the implementation of FRA including the everyday
practices of the associated governance mechanisms. However, in order to fully comprehend the challenges in the
implementation of the act, and for strengthening the institutional architecture and educating communities towards accessing
their rights, it is essential that more empirical studies are conducted so as to plug the information and data gap. There is a need
for documenting practices on field and capturing snapshots of the ‘act in action’. Gathering insights from the field is a worthy
exercise since it would help in disseminating knowledge to practitioners, policy makers, civil society organisations and forest-
dependent communities. That, in turn, would contribute towards realising the full potential of the FRA and meeting its stated
goals of redressing historical injustices against forest dwellers.
REFERENCES
Baviskar, A., 1994. Fate of the Forest: Conservation and Tribal Rights. Economic and Political Weekly Vol. 29, 2493–2501.
Bhullar, L., 2008. The Indian Forest Rights Act 2006: A Critical Appraisal. Law, Environment and Development Journal Vol. 4, 22–34.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Bose, I., 2010. How did the Indian Forest Rights Act, 2006, emerge? Department of International Development, Research Programme Consortium for
Improving Institutions for Pro-poor Growth.
Central Government, 1894. The Land Acquisition Act 1–33.
Chandrasekhar, K., 2017. Status report on implementation of the Scheduled Tribes and Other Traditional Forest Dwellers (Recognition of Forest Rights)
Act, 2006. Ministry of Tribal Affairs, Government of India, New Delhi.
Doolittle, A.A., 2007. Fortress Conservation, in: Encyclopaedia of Environment and Society. SAGE Publications, Inc., Thousand Oaks, pp. 705–705.
https://doi.org/10.4135/9781412953924
Gogoi, M., 2018. The Nexus between Sovereignty and “Eminent Domain” under the Land Acquisition Act, 1894 and the Land Act, 2013. Social Change,
SAGE Publications Vol. 48, 173–187. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049085718768897
Hardin, G., 1968. The Tragedy of Commons. Science Vol. 162, 1243–1248. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.162.3859.1243
Jain, A., Sharma, R., 2015. The Indian Forest Rights Act, 2006: Salient Features, Scope and 2012 Amendment Rules. International Journal of Social
Science and Humanities Vol. 4, 95–108.
Joseph, J., 2018. Tribal Welfare Programmes and Policies in India: An Overview. Epitome: International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research Vol. 4.
Kashwan, P., 2017. Chapter 5: Politics of Institutional Change in India’s Forestland Regimes, in: Democracy in the Woods: Environmental Conservation
and Social Justice in India, Tanzania and Mexico. Oxford University Press, United Kingdom, pp. 117–146.
Kumar, K., Singh, N.M., Rao, Y.G., 2015. Promise and Performance of the Forest Rights Act. Economic and Political Weekly 52, 7–8.
Kurian, A.L., Vinodan, C., 2018. Origin of Conservation Refugees: The Downside of Environment Protection in India. Economic and Political Weekly Vol.
53.
Lele, S., 2017. Forest Governance: From Co-option and Conflict to Multi-layered Governance? Economic and Political Weekly Vol. 52, 55–58.
Ministry of Tribal Affairs, Government of India, 2017. Annual Report. Ministry of Tribal Affairs, India.
Ostrom, E., 1990. Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action, The Political Economy of Institutions and Decisions. ed.
Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom.
Persha, L., Agrawal, A., Chhatare, A., 2011. Social and Ecological Synergy: Local Rulemaking, Forest Livelihoods, and Biodiversity Conservation.
American Association for the Advancement of Science, Science Vol. 331, 1606–1608.
Sen, A., Lalhrietpui, E., 2006. Scheduled Tribes (Recognition of Forest Rights) Bill: A View from Anthropology and Call for Dialogue. Economic and
Political Weekly Vol. 41, 4205–4210.
Sharma, A., 2018a. Maharashtra Denies Habitat Rights to the Most Backward Tribal Communities [WWW Document]. The Wire. URL
https://thewire.in/environment/maharashtra-denies-habitat-rights-to-the-most-backward-tribal-communities (accessed 10.18.18).
Sharma, A., 2018b. The ‘Other’ in the Forest Rights Act Has Been Ignored for Years [WWW Document]. The Wire. URL https://thewire.in/rights/the-
other-in-the-forest-rights-act-has-been-ignored-for-years (accessed 10.18.18).
Singhal, R., 2008. Changing Models of Forest Governance in India: Evolution or Revolution? Indian Institute of Forest Management 65–72.
Srinivas, C., Kiran, K.Y.V., 2018. Safeguards to Tribal People in India: A Human Rights Perception. International Journal of Scientific Research and
Reviews Vol. 7, 148–158.
United National Development Programme, Ministry of Tribal Affairs, Government of India, 2014. Frequently Asked Questions on the Forest Rights Act.
FRA Rule Book 1–36.
United Nations Development Programme, Ministry of Tribal Affairs, Government of India, 2014. Forest Rights Act, 2006: Act, Rules and Guidelines. FRA
Rule Book.
United Nations Office of High Commissioner, 2013. Free, Prior and Informed Consent of Indigenous People. Indigenous Peoples and Minorities Section,
OHCHR Rule of Law, Equality and Non-Discrimination Branch 1–2.
World Resources Institute, 2014. India | Forest Legality [WWW Document]. Forest legality Initiative. URL https://forestlegality.org/risk-tool/country/india
(accessed 8.15.18).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Analysis of Sound Absorption Coefficient (Case Study: Gypsum panel,

gypsum-arenga pinnata fibre, arenga pinnata fibre-gypsum and foamed
concrete- arenga pinnata fibre)
Fuady, Z.,1,* Ismail,2 Fauzi,2 and Zulfian3
1
Physics Department, Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, Indonesia
2
Environmental Engineering Department, State Islamic University Ar-Raniry, Banda Aceh, Indonesia
3
Acoustics Laboratory, Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, Indonesia
*
fzakiul@gmail.com
Abstract—This research is conducted to analyse the sound absorption coefficient of several panel materials which are measured as a single
panel and combined panels. Those panels are: gypsum panel, gypsum panel - palm fibre panel, palm fibre panel - gypsum panel, and foamed
concrete panel - palm fibre panel. The measurement of sound absorption coefficient was conducted by using reverberation chamber method
based on the ISO 354-1985 with the type of the sound sources: white noise and pink noise at the frequency of 125 Hz - 8000 Hz. According to
this research, the gypsum panel - palm fibre panel possesses the coefficient of sound absorption (α) = 0.93 at low frequency; the palm fibre
panel has α = 0.97 at medium frequency; and the foamed concrete panel - palm fibre panel possesses α = 0.89 at high frequency. The
measurement by using sound source of pink noise produces α = 0.99 for gypsum panel - palm fibre panel at low level; palm fibre panel - gypsum
panel possesses α = 0.86 at medium level; and palm fibre panel - gypsum panel has α = 0.64 at high level. The palm fibre panel could absorb
sound wave well since this material has bigger air space (pore) than the foamed concrete and gypsum panels. Consequently, when the sounds
wave enters to this material it will be trapped in the pore inside the panel. Palm fibre panel influences an increasing of sound absorption
coefficient value at the combination materials when the panel of palm fibre was placed under other panels. However, the absorption coefficient
values of both palm fibre panel and palm fibre panel - gypsum panel are about the same.
Keywords—coefficient of sound absorption, white noise, pink noise
I. INTRODUCTION
A. Background
Many people often complain about acoustic of a room. The complaint such as un-clear dialogue pronounced by panellist in
a conference, out of loud music in rock concert, and flight schedule announcement in airport because of high noise level. One
of efforts conducted to control noise is by absorbing sound reflection using acoustic panel for indoor environment until sound
intensity received by audience not too loud to obtain acoustic comfort. Gypsum is a high aesthetic material with soft surface and
whitewashed colour, yet it cannot absorb sound at high frequency. On the other hands, palm fibre is well known by people in
tropical country but the usage of this material is not well developed. The palm fibre used in this research is gained from the fibre
from palm tree which is known as Arenga pinnata in the kingdom of Plantae.
Theoretically, fibrous and porous materials are able to absorb sound wave in medium and high frequency. Meanwhile foamed
concrete is often used in disaster mitigation to reduce victim by collapsed wall material.
B. Set of Problem
There are many panels sold in the market nowadays which are unable to absorb noise in high frequency and some of them
also unable to absorb in low frequency. This case shows that there is a relationship between sound absorption coefficient based
on material type and sound frequency that is transferred. Therefore, coefficient of sound absorption in particular material is needed
to be researched at low, medium and high frequency.
This research is conducted by using reverberation chamber acoustic testing based on ISO 354-1985 with sound source: white
noise and pink noise at frequency range 125 – 8000 Hz.
C. Aim and Benefit of Research

The price of well performed acoustic panel is relatively high. Therefor this research is focus on modifying and combining
easily found material into better noise absorbing panel.
The aim of this research is to determine material type and its combination (gypsum panel, gypsum – palm fibre panel, palm
fibre – gypsum panel and foamed concrete – palm fibre panel) that possesses high sound absorption coefficient at each frequency
group. The research will boost the economic value of palm fibre.
D. Sound Interaction to Material

When sound source object is vibrated and no other objects block, the sound wave propagates to random directions,
transmitted through particular distance, attenuate then disappear. When energy of sound hits a material, part of the energy is
reflected and the rest is absorbed or not reflected (any energy of sound is transmitted in spite of a bit).
Figure 1 shows sound behaviour in a room when sound wave hits wall of the room: reflected, absorbed, transmitted, deflected
and propagated.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Figure 1. Sound behaviour in a room. Doelle. L. L, 1993
Remark:
1. Incoming sound
2. Reflected sound
3. Absorbed sound by wall surface
4. Diffused sound
5. Diffracted sound
6. Transmitted sound
7. Lost sound in building structure
8. Propagated sound
E. Sound Absorber Material

Generally, sound absorber material is divided into 3 types: porous material, panel absorber and cavity absorber. This
classification according to alteration process of sound energy hitting material surface and becomes heat energy. Characteristic of
a sound absorber material is clarified by number of sound absorption coefficient for each frequency level.
The purpose of acoustic plan is to lower noise level in a room. To reduce noise level which is conducted by reducing interior
wall using material possessing high absorption coefficient (≈1.0) (Putra, 2000).
1) Porous Material: Absorber made by porous material absorbs high frequency sound which is higher than 4000 Hz because
small pores is accordance to the magnitude of the coming wavelength.
Figure 2 shows the behaviour of sound wave hitting the porous material. In this scenario, the energy of sound that comes to
the material will be trapped and the energy of sound is attenuated because it is converted into heat energy. The same thing occurs
to fibrous material, the pores in fibrous material depends on the material density, the denser the material, the smaller the pores.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Figure 2. Absorption of porous material.
2) Absorber Panel: This type of panel works well to absorb sound at low frequency. Incoming sound wave generates panel
to vibrate (depend on the frequency) and transmits the vibration to vacuum space in backside of the absorber.
Figure 3. Panel with cavity absorbs low frequency sound. Mediastika, 2005
The panel is often used for ceiling and wall material. The installation of this panel is not stick to the wall but there is a space
between the panel and the wall. Well performance of the panels is indicated by the resonance of the incoming frequency and the
frequency of the panel.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
3) Absorbent Cavity: consist of a narrow cavity followed by closed room in backside of the absorber. This panel works
effectively at particular frequency which is already known by absorbing or capturing incoming sound that enters into the cavity.
Figure 4. Schematic model of cavity absorber. Mediastika. C. E, 2005
For example, for a proper absorption of frequency 1000 Hz, the absorption material is used in this case has to be the material
which will work well in absorbing the frequency transmitted because the frequency has been previously known. This type of
absorber is often use for particular purpose.
II. RESEARCH METHOD

A. Sound Absorption Coefficient
Absorption coefficient (α) is defined as a ratio between absorbed sound energy and incoming energy of sound (Porges, 1977).
Part of coming sound wave which is absorbed or not reflected is named as a coefficient of sound absorption. This coefficient
possesses a value between 0 and 1 which means 0 is no sound absorbed and 1 means that the sound is completely absorbed. If the
absorption panel is able to absorb 35% of transmitted sound, it means that the sound absorption coefficient for this panel is 0.35.
in this case, the rest of the sound wave is transmitted which is 65%.
𝑊𝑊𝑎𝑎
𝛼𝛼 = (1)
𝑊𝑊𝑖𝑖
ɑ : sound absorption coefficient
Wɑ: absorbed sound energy
Wi : incoming sound energy to material surface
For example, a surface often consists of several materials or possesses various kinds of sound absorption coefficient: ɑ1, ɑ2,
ɑ3, ..., ɑn. In this case, absorption coefficient is defined by average value determined by using this equation.
𝛼𝛼1 𝑆𝑆1 + 𝛼𝛼2 𝑆𝑆2 + 𝛼𝛼3 𝑆𝑆3 + ⋯ + 𝛼𝛼𝑛𝑛 𝑆𝑆𝑛𝑛 (2)

𝛼𝛼� =
𝑆𝑆1 + 𝑆𝑆2 + 𝑆𝑆3 + ⋯ + 𝑆𝑆𝑛𝑛
S : total area (m2)

ɑ : absorption coefficient
There are two types of sound absorption coefficient according to the angle of the coming sound wave. They are: normal
sound absorption coefficient (αn) with the angle of coming sound wave is 90o. And Sabine absorption coefficient (αs or α) with
random angle of coming sound wave.
B. Reverberation Time (RT)

T20 is reverberation time required by sound to decay as much as 20 dB after source of sound is off as well as T30 which is
time required by sound to decay as much as 30 dB after sound source is off. This is affected by the function of room, volume, and
surface area of the room and varies to each audience position. For example, music studio requires reverberation time < 0.3 second,
class room 0.7 second, concert room 1.6-2.2 second, mosque 0.7-1.1 second, church 2 second, etc.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
American physicist, Wallace Clement Sabine in 1898 found that the larger the room volume (V) is, the longer the
reverberation time (T) it would be and vice versa.
Equation to determine RT is:
0,16𝑉𝑉
𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 = (3)
𝐴𝐴 + 𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥
RT : Reverberation time (second)

V : Volume
A : total area absorption (sabine/m2)
x : air absorption coefficient
Concept of reverberation time can explain the response of the room to the sound wave. The larger the reverberation time, the
more reflection occurs in the room which leads to produce much noise and distracts verbal conversation.
C. Reverberation chamber method

Generally, there are two the most popular methods to measure sound absorption coefficient in a material: impedance tube
and reverberation chamber methods. Coming sound to an absorption material comes from any direction all at once. Sound
absorption coefficient that comes randomly is a parameter that is mostly conducted in room design to determine using an
absorption material.
This method is conducted in a reverberation chamber designed by applying reflective wall with sound absorption coefficient
at least 0.06. The room is designed by closing whole wall, floor and ceiling using solid material without pore. Therefore, all
coming sound can be reflected altogether, even it is reflected monotonously. In this case, the room is assumed as a diffusion field.
Sample is placed on the floor, wall, and on the ceiling of the room. The measurement is conducted in audio frequency. The
value of Sabine absorption coefficient depends on dimension of the sample, sample distribution, and room measurement.
Reverberation time of a room at each frequency band is defined by calculating total of reverberation time at frequency band.
Area of sound absorption A1, obtained by reverberation chamber without sample is calculated by using equation:
55,3𝑉𝑉
𝐴𝐴1 = (4)
𝑐𝑐𝑇𝑇1
A1 : area of sound absorption without sample (m2)

V : volume of room (m3)
c : sound propagation in the air (m/s)
T1 : reverberation time of reverberation chamber without sample (s)
Sound propagation in the air is involved by air temperature in certain time. Sound propagation is fluctuated depending on
kind of gas that form the air layer.
(5)
𝑐𝑐 = (331 + 0,6. 𝑇𝑇)
The value of 331 is a sound propagation at temperature of 0 oC, value of 0.6 is a sound propagation in the air which increases
by 0.6 m/s at each degree Celsius, and temperature (T) in oC.
Sound absorption area in reverberation chamber with sample is calculated by using equation 6:
55,3𝑉𝑉 (6)
𝐴𝐴2 =
𝑐𝑐𝑇𝑇2
A2 : sound absorption area with sample (m2)

V : volume of room (m3)
c : sound propagation in the air (m/s)
T2 : reverberation time of reverberation chamber with sample (s)
Equation 4 and 6 are merged to calculate sound absorption coefficient:
(7)

polocentre.org
icshge.org
𝑉𝑉 1 1
𝐴𝐴 = 55,3 � − �
𝑐𝑐 𝑇𝑇2 𝑇𝑇1
From equation 7 obtained sound absorption area and for absorption coefficient number on sample surface ɑs is calculated
using equation 8 by dividing sound absorption area to surface area of test sample (Brikmann, 1995).
𝐴𝐴
𝛼𝛼𝑠𝑠 = (8)
𝑆𝑆
A : sound absorption area (m2)

S : surface area of sample (m2)
ɑs : sound absorption coefficient
D. Analysis of Frequency
Mediastika (2005) categorised sound into three groups based on frequency, which are: low frequency at frequency less than
1000 Hz, medium frequency at frequency between 1000 Hz and 4000 Hz, and high frequency at frequency higher than 4000 Hz.
In acoustic measurement, frequency types that generally used are filter 1/1 octave and 1/3 octave. In this case, number of
centre frequency for filter 1/1 octave is smaller than 1/3 octave. In other words, analysis of sound frequency using filter 1/3 octave
is more accurate than filter 1/1 octave. Filter 1/3 octave possesses bandwidth at frequency more than 500 Hz really close to human
audio system.
• Centre frequencyof filter 1/1 octave (Hz) : 16; 31,5; 63; 125; 250; 500; 1000; 2000; 4000; 8000; 16000.
• Centre frequency of filter 1/3 octave (Hz) : 16; 20; 25; 31,5; 40; 50; 63; 80; 100; 125; 160; 200; 250; 315; 400; 500; 630;
800; 1000; 1250; 1600; 2000; 2500; 3150; 4000; 5000; 6300; 8000; 10000; 12500; 16000.
Sound frequency limit that can be heard by human ears is in range between 20 Hz and 20 KHz. One of sound sources
representing human audio frequency range is white noise which is constant amplitude at each audio frequency that increases 3 dB
per octave (Putra. I. B. A, 2000).
White noise is analogised as white light, because white light contains all light frequency in the same proportion or in other
words, white noise contains all sound frequency in human audio range (Jacobsenn et al., 2010).
Basically pink noise is white noise with amplitude decreases constantly 3 dB per octave. Pink noise is low frequency
compressed (compared to white noise) (Luxe Vivant, 2010).
E. Gypsum
Gypsum is divided into two types: Casting and Cornice which is one of mineral in sediment group. Gypsum is natural
adhesive material composed by chemical formula CaSO4.2H2O with monoclinic crystal system and low conductivity. This
material mostly used for ceiling because it looks like more attractive than asbestos (Sinaga, 2009).
F. Palm Fibre and Its Characteristic

Pal fibre that is produced by palm tree (ArengaPinnataMerr) is strong and durable even in open air condition. This plant is
found in east coast of India until Southeast Asia.
Size of natural palm fibre is approximately 0.07 mm until 3.03 mm whereas market palm fibre calculated depends on its
thickness about 0.38 mm until 0.93 mm (main fibre) (Sajidin, 2010).
G. Foamed Concrete
Size of pore in foamed concrete is very small approximately 0.1 until 1.0 mm and spread evenly generates foamed concrete
to absorb heat and more soundproof. One of material to form foam for concrete compound is hydrolysed protein based in cement
mortar. The function of this foam agent is to stabilise air space (pore) during mortar process quickly.
H. Equipment
Special set of Real Time Analyser Nor 840 was made for the experiments see Figure 5 where the analyser and power amplifier
are located in control room whereas loudspeaker, tested sample and microphone are located in reverberation chamber.
The Real Time Analyser Nor 840 is designed to conduct simple calculations of acoustic parameters: T20 and T30. Value of
sound absorption in empty reverberation chamber is 0.04 according to Vipac (2001).

polocentre.org
icshge.org
(a)
(b)
Figure 5. Real Time Analyser Nor 840 (a) Photo. (b) Scheme of reverberation time test
I. Samples
Gypsum panel is used in this research is type of Cornice which is made by mixing gypsum flour and water by comparison
2:1 with dimension of sample 1x1x0.01 m3. The dough is mixed by hand with steady mixing speed. Then put the dough to gypsum
mould and let it dries around 3 or 4 weeks see Figure 6.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
Figure 6. Tested samples (a) Gypsum panel. (b) Gypsum panel on palm fibre panel. (c) palm fibre panel on gypsum panel. (d) Foam concrete panel on palm
fibre panel
For combination panels, put gypsum panel on palm fibre panel and foamed concrete panel on palm fibre panel and vice versa
with dimension of palm fibre is 1x1x0.02 m3 and dimension of foamed concrete panel is 1x1x0.03 m3 see Figure 6.
J. Measurement
Tested is conducted according to ISO 354-1985 as measurement standard. The experiment is conducted in reverberation
chamber with dimension 5.6x3.9x3.3 m3.
Real Time Analyser 840 is connected to Power Amplifier Norsonic-260. Microphone is connected to RTA 840 whereas
loudspeaker is connected to Power Amplifier see Figure 5. Position of microphone is 1 mfrom chamber wall, 1 m from chamber
floor and 2 m.
Incoming sound in reverberation chamber without sample hit chamber surface and it is reflected randomly to all directions,
it produces echo which is calculated as empty reverberation time (T1) and when sample is attached in the chamber, incoming
sound hit the sample then get absorbed and the rest is reflected to all directions so that the reverberation time will be lower than
(T1). Several factors involve reverberation time are temperature of chamber, kind of sample and measurement equipment.
This measurement of reverberation time is conducted using sound source white noise and pink noise 1/3 filter in range 125-
8000 Hz.
III. RESULTS
Data of reverberation time is obtained by acoustic measurement defined as T1 and T2. The data is calculated by equation 7
and 8.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
A. Tested Material
1) Gypsum panel
Figure 7 shows that maximum absorption of gypsum panel tested using white noise in surface area 1 m2 is 0.50 at low
frequency (250 Hz) and 0.24 at medium frequency (1000 Hz).
Whereas using pink noise, maximum absorption coefficient of gypsum panel at low frequency (250 Hz) is 0.50 and 0.17 at
medium frequency (2500 Hz).
Figure 7. Sound absorption coefficient of gypsum panel.
2) Gypsum panel - Palm fibre panel

Interdependence between sound absorption coefficient and frequency transferred, maximum absorption occurred at low
frequency (125 Hz) is 0.93 and at medium frequency (1250 Hz) is 0.51 for white noise.
And for pink noise, absorption coefficients are: 0.99 occurred at low frequency (250 Hz) and 0.41 at medium frequency
(1250 Hz).
Figure 8. Sound absorption coefficient of gypsum panel - palm fibre panel.
3) Palm fibre - Gypsum panel

By attaching palm fibre on gypsum panel, chart shows that maximum sound absorption coefficient found 0.68 at low
frequency (800 Hz) and 0.85 at medium frequency (2500 Hz) then 0.86 at high frequency (8000 Hz) for white noise.
And for pink noise the combination panel well absorbs at low frequency (200 Hz) by 0.76, at medium frequency (2500 Hz)
by 0.86 and at high frequency (6300 Hz) by 0.64.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Figure 9. Sound absorption coefficient of palm fibre panel - gypsum panel.
4) Foamed concrete panel - Palm fibre panel

Using foamed concrete on palm fibre panel produce different sound absorption compare to gypsum on palm fibre. For white
noise, this panel possesses sound absorption coefficient 0.86 at low frequency (800 Hz), 0.56 at medium frequency (1000 Hz)
and 0.89 at high frequency (8000 Hz).
For pink noise, the absorption coefficient is 0.91 at low frequency (250 Hz), 0.66 at medium frequency (1000 Hz) and 0.54
at high frequency (8000 Hz).
Figure 10. Sound absorption coefficient of foamed concrete panel - palm fibre panel.
B. White and Pink Noise

Chart shows that gypsum panel is unable to absorb sound at high frequency and there is edge effect because of size of pore
in the material and particle of atom in the material is solid so it creates solid edge as well, See Figure 11. At gypsum-palm fibre
panel, palm fibre improves sound absorption of the panel at low frequency and relatively stable at medium frequency, vice versa
to palm fibre-gypsum panel which relatively stable at medium and high frequency, but unable to well absorb at low frequency.
At foamed concrete-palm fibre panel, the panel absorb well at medium and high frequency but low at low frequency. Those
samples indicate that palm fibre improve sound abruption coefficient of panel because of its porosity in conducting using white
noise as well as using pink noise.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
(a)
(b)
Figure 11. Sound absorption coefficient:.(a) White noise. (b) Pink noise.
IV. CONCLUSION
For white noise as sound source, material possessing maximum sound absorption coefficient at low frequency are gypsum-
palm fibre with ɑ = 0.93 obtained at 125 Hz. At medium frequency, palm fibre panel possesses ɑ = 0.97 at 2000 Hz. And at high
frequency, foamed concrete-palm fibre possesses ɑ = 0.89 at 8000 Hz.
For pink noise, maximum sound absorption coefficient at low frequency of gypsum-palm fibre panel is 0.99 at 250 Hz. At
medium frequency, palm fibre-gypsum possesses ɑ = 0.86 at 2500 Hz as well as at high frequency, 6300 Hz, ɑ = 0.64.
Palm fibre panel absorbs sound well because it has bigger pore than foamed concrete and gypsum so that incoming sound
hit the material get trapped and attenuated by random fibre.
REFERENCES
[1] Arifin, I. 2000. Gelombang Bunyi. Manuskrip Fisika Dasar 3. Universitas Gunadharma, Depok.
[2] Brinkmann, K. 1995. Acoustics Vol. 2. International Organization for Standardization, Genevé. Switzerland.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
[3] Doelle, L. L. 1993. Akustik Lingkungan. Terjemahan dari Environmental Acoustics, oleh Lea Prasetio, Erlangga, Jakarta.
[4] Effendi, D. S. 2010. Prospek Pengembangan Tanaman Aren (ArengapinnataMerr) Mendukung Kebutuhan Bioetanol di Indonesia. Perspektif Vol. 9 (1):
36-46.
[5] Fahridhal. 2011. Pengukuran Koefisien Absorpsi Panel Dinding Beton Busa Dengan menggunakan Metode Ruang Dengung Berdasarkan Standar ISO-
354:2003. Skripsi. UniversitasSyiah Kuala, Banda Aceh
[6] Gabriel, J. F. 1999. Fisika Lingkungan. Hipokrates. Jakarta.
[7] Ginting, H. S. 2002. Pengendalian Bahan Komposit. Paper. Universitas Sumatera Utara, Medan.
[8] Hapsari, M. I., Purwanto, A., dan Sutanto, H. 2003. Gypsum Membuat Rumah Jadi Mewah. Proyek Pemberdayaan UPT dan Tenaga Kependidikan Luar
Sekolah Jawa Tengah. Jawa Tengah.
[9] Indrani, H. C. 2004. Pengaruh Elemen Interior Terhadap Karakter Akustik Auditorium. Dimensi Interior Vol. 2 (1): 66 – 79.
[10] Iswanto, A. H. 2009. AREN (Arengapinnata). Karya Ilmiah. Universitas Sumatera Utara, Medan.
[11] Jacobsenn, F., Poulsen, T., Rindel, J. H., Gade, A. C., and Ohlrich, M. 2010. Fundamentals of Acoustics and Noise Control. Department of Electrical
Engineering, Technical University of Denmark. Lyngby. Denmark.
[12] Jayaboard. 2009. Sistem Jayaboard. Informasi Jayaboard, 6 November: 6:9.
[13] Johnson, B. 2001. Noise Qualification Report for Reverberation Room & Anachoic Chamber at UNSYIAH. Laporan Penelitian. Vipac Engineering &
Scientist, Singapore.
[14] Lindawati. 2008. Studi Karakteristik Penyerapan Bunyi Pada Panel Akustik Dengan Bahan Baku Serat Ampas Tebu. Skripsi. Universitas Syiah Kuala,
Banda Aceh.
[15] Mediastika, C. E. 2005. Akustika Bangunan, Prinsip-prinsip dan peneerapannya di Indonesia. Erlangga. Jakarta.
[16] Mulya, E. B. S. 2005. Potensi Palem Indonesia. Paper. Universitas Sumatera Utara, Medan.
[17] Porges, G. 1977. Applied Acoustics. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data. London. UK.
[18] Prasasti, F. W. 2004. Gipsum, Pengganti Plesteran Dinding Bata. Tabloid Rumah. 31 Agustus - 13 September: 32.
[19] Putra, I. B. A. 2000. Engineering Acoustics. Jurusan Teknik Fisika Fakultas Teknik Institut Teknik Bandung. Bandung.
[20] Sajidin, M. PY. 2010. Peluang Pemanfaatan Ijuk Sebagai Bahan Panel Akustik Penyerap Bunyi. Skripsi. Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh.
[21] Sarwono, J. 2008. Fenomena Akustik dalam Ruang Tertutup. http://dosen.tf.itb.ac.id/jsarwono/2008/04/12/fenomena-akustik-dalam-ruang-tertutup/.
Tanggalakses 1 Maret 2011.
[22] Satwiko, P. 2009. Fisika Bangunan. Andi. Yogyakarta.
[23] Sinaga, S. 2009. Pembuatan Papan Gipsum Plafon Dengan Bahan Pengisi Limbah Padat Pabrik Kertas Rokok Dan Perekat Polivinil Alkohol. Tesis.
Universitas Sumatera Utara, Medan.
[24] Yahya, I. 2002. Metode Pengukuran Akustik. Pelatihan Bunyi dan Getaran Yang Diselenggarakan Oleh PT. Tamara Overseas Corp. Jakarta.

polocentre.org
icshge.org
Applying United Nations Sustainable Development Goals at the Foreign

Languages Centre of the University of Gdansk
Swebocka, A.
Foreign Languages Centre, University of Gdansk, Sopot, Poland; alina.swebocka@ug.edu.pl
Abstract— This paper aims to present and discuss the measures that the Foreign Languages Centre of the University of
Gdansk (also referred to as UG), Poland, has taken to strengthen its commitment and contribution to the sustainable
development of the Polish academic sector and society. When presenting the already undertaken actions as well as the ones
to be implemented within the next two years, a reference to the Sustainable Development Goals (sometimes referred to as
Global Goals) advocated by the United Nations will be made.
Keywords— sustainable development, SDGs, foreign languages, education
I. INTRODUCTION
T RANSFORMING Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is an agreement signed by world leaders in
September 2015 at the United Nations. Its main Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are designed “to set the world
on a path towards a better future for all by 2030”.1 The Agenda includes 17 SDGs which are “a set of priorities and aspirations
to guide all countries in tackling the world’s most pressing challenges, including ending poverty and hunger; protecting the
planet from degradation and addressing climate change; ensuring that all people can enjoy prosperous, healthy and fulfilling
lives; and fostering peaceful, just and inclusive societies free from fear and violence.” 2
Many Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) have been paving their ways to contribute to the sustainable development of
the academic sector and societies in which they operate by applying these goals, and thus have had a key role in SDGs
implementation. While all of the 17 SDGs on the Agenda are somehow relevant to many aspects of HEIs overall activity, it is
SDG 4 that to some extent has been successfully implemented by the Foreign Languages Centre of the UG over the last two
years. It emphasizes the importance of education in achieving the Global Goals by 2030. Specifically, SDG 4 calls for
providing “inclusive and equitable quality education and promoting lifelong learning opportunities for all” by targeting among
others the following learning and teaching objectives 3:
 ensuring equal access for all women and men to affordable and quality technical, vocational and tertiary education,
including university;
 substantially increasing the number of youth and adults who have relevant skills, including technical and vocational skills,
for employment, decent jobs and entrepreneurship; and
 ensuring that all learners acquire the knowledge and skills needed to promote sustainable development, including, among
others, through education for sustainable development and sustainable lifestyles, human rights, gender equality, promotion
of a culture of peace and non-violence, global citizenship and appreciation of cultural diversity and of culture’s contribution
to sustainable development.
Quality education is at the heart of SDG 4, since only by enhancing the quality of a teaching-learning process, can the ambitious
UN Global Goals be achieved. This has been striven for at the Foreign Languages Centre of the UG, as presented below.
II. QUALITY IN HIGHER EDUCATION

The Foreign Languages Centre of the University of Gdansk is an inter-faculty unit which provides foreign language
services to all the students of the University. A number of modern foreign languages are taught to almost 9,000 students
annually, the most popular being English, German and Spanish. As a rule, the courses are run in the 1st year of studies and are
completed with a certified internal exam. Each course is faculty-specific, which means syllabi adhere to the content of students’
specialization. In other words, the scope of each course reflects the so-called “specific purposes” of the type of language taught,
be it Law, Business, Psychology, Chemistry, IT, Management, Oceanography, etc. Apart from faculty-specific terminology
and content, the four main skills – reading, listening, speaking and writing are simultaneously developed throughout the course.
Quality in higher education is one of the focal points of the Bologna Process, an intergovernmental agreement between
EU and non-EU countries, signed by education ministers from 29 European countries in 1999. Since its official proclamation,
a great number of endeavors, initiatives and activities, both formal and bottom-up, have been undertaken across Europe
including Poland. Almost 20 years later, not only do quality assurance principles recommended in the subsequent documents
of the Process remain in force, but the contemporary world as we know it, with its fast-changing social, economic, political
and business environment also requires that education managers constantly enhance quality in the context of higher education.
In order to better target language competences of the University graduates, which is believed to assure their employability,
mobility and professional growth, a series of activities focused on the quality of foreign language courses has been initiated
at the Foreign Languages Centre of the University of Gdansk in the course of the past two years. The most significant and far-
1
Kestin, T.,: SDSN Australia/Pacific (2017): Getting started with the SDGs in universities: A guide for universities, higher education institutions, and the
academic sector. Australia, New Zealand and Pacific Edition. Sustainable Development Solutions Network – Australia/Pacific, Melbourne, 2017,
Introduction.
2
Ibidem, p. 5.
3
Goal 4 targets, https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/education/ [04.11.2018].

polocentre.org
icshge.org
fledged ones are appointing the Division for Methodology and Quality of Education, modification and streamlining of online
placement tests for the students who begin their foreign language education at the University, introduction of the first stage of
language education evaluation standards within the Centre, encouraging and promoting professional growth and development
among the academic staff of the Centre, and recently launching a highly successful conference “Higher education graduates’
foreign language competences v. expectations of employers. How to face the challenges of the modern labor market?”
However, transnational higher education in Poland has become over the last decade or so, one should bear in mind that
HEIs operate mainly in the domestic environment defined by its economic, legal and political circumstances. As it is commonly
known, a revolutionary change in higher education in Poland is literally underway in year 2018. The bill of the Ministry of
Science and Higher Education, Statute 2.0, also called The Constitution for Science, was adopted by the Polish Parliament this
summer and has been in force since1st October 2018, the commencement of a new academic year. One of the key priorities
embedded in the governmental proposal is the quality of higher education.
The strategic goals of the University of Gdansk, as presented on its website, also emphasize the drive for quality of
education: “The University will devote its best efforts to ensuring the high level of its graduates’ qualifications, and their solid
preparation for a career in an integrating Europe. Raising the level and quality of education will be achieved through a continual
up-dating of knowledge transferred, following the latest achievements of science and scholarship and the transformation of
social systems, […] through the introduction and promulgation of an internal educational quality control system, through
implementing the National Qualifications Framework Program[..]”.4 Thus, once again quality emerges as a key notion inherent
in the University’s mission, vision and strategy.
The debate over what quality really means has been especially lively over the last three decades or so. As Vroeijenstijn
expressed it, “The concept of quality is not new: it has always been a part of the academic tradition. It is the outside world that
now emphasizes the need for attention to quality. It is the relationship between higher education and society that has
changed”.5 Undoubtedly, quality is associated with excellence and with outstanding standards. It has various connotations,
such as “league tables, benchmarks, standard-checking, or even gold standard of academic achievement.”6 Based on the ISO
9001 recommendations7, quality in higher education can be defined as the level of compliance of customers’ expectations
with the services provided, the main stakeholders being students. However, students of HEIs, mostly young adults, are
perceived as rather immature consumers, whereas public HEIs constitute the so-called quasi market where rational choices
cannot be made beforehand. Only after the provided good has been experienced, i.e., students have participated in a given
course, can the customers decide whether the expected sustainable value and quality have been delivered.
Polish HEIs have been putting a lot of effort into delivering quality by providing a systematic approach to quality
assurance ever since EU recommendations were proposed in “The Standards and Guidelines for Quality Assurance in the
European Higher Education Area” 8 in 2005. The University of Gdansk is no exception as it has
a well-structured internal system aimed at aligning education quality rules and criteria with both external and state (Polish
Accreditation Agency/Polska Komisja Akredytacyjna) requirements. A special body of the University – Education Quality
Bureau – has developed a number of short and long-term quality-oriented activities, such as the Fund for Didactic Initiatives,
Ideatorium, Forum for Academic Cooperation, etc., all reinforced by subsequent Rector’s bylaws. Furthermore, all faculties
of the University of Gdansk carry out numerous projects and launch conferences whose main aim, apart from their scientific
dimension, is to share and advocate best practices and highest standards of academic education so that sustainable development
could be guaranteed.
However, what HEIs should really reach for in terms of quality is not mere quality assurance, living up to internally (state-
governed) or externally (EU) imposed standards, formulas and benchmarks, but they should persistently attempt to move
toward the horizons of future education and apply the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. All such ideas and
endeavors may not be quite tangible and measurable now, yet they are anticipated by entrepreneurial educators and managers
and inevitably confronted with the demanding labor market in the end.
III. RELEVANCE OF QUALITY LANGUAGE EDUCATION AND THE LABOR MARKET IN ACHIEVING SDGS
The reference to labor market is well-established here. The main stakeholders of HEIs are obviously students, and so it is
their after-graduation employability, professional development and advancement that should be a focus of present academic
educators, including teachers of foreign languages. Therefore, the University of Gdansk has been pursuing opportunities to
build up and strengthen relationships with business sectors of various kinds. It has been made possible due to conducting
numerous projects, mostly in a research area, in co-operation with Polish and international business entities. Depending on
contractual obligations and subject specificity of a project, not only scholars but also students of relevant faculties have been
engaged in commissioned activities. Such common undertakings have proved beneficial to both parties – the University and a
given business stakeholder, and often resulted in follow-up employment offers for the students involved. However, the Foreign
Languages Centre, a purely didactic University unit, had never been perceived as a partner to such or similar enterprises until
4
UG Mission and Strategy, https://en.ug.edu.pl/university/ug_mission_and_strategy [02.11.2018].
5
Vroeijenstijn A.I.: Improvement and Accountability, Navigating Between Scylla and Charybdis, Guide for Quality Assessment in Higher Education, Jessica
Kingsley Publishers, London, 1995, p.34.
6
Lucien B., Sanja B.: Embedding Quality Culture in Higher Education, European University Association, Brussels, 2007, p. 15.
7
Quality Management Principles, https://www.iso.org/iso-9001-quality-management.html,
p.5 [25.10.2018].
8
Quality of HE, https://www.eurashe.eu/library/quality-he/ESG_2015 [15.10.2018].

polocentre.org
icshge.org
two years ago when a new management was appointed for a 4-year term. One of the priorities of the new team has been to
look for best opportunities to make connections with the business environment. This undertaking is believed to increase
students’ awareness of the labor market expectations concerning foreign language competences of future HEIs’ graduates, and
so motivate them to develop their language proficiency in the course of their studies. As a result, all such activities should be
perceived as valuable contribution to assuring sustainability goals.
One such enterprise was a conference organized by the Centre in collaboration with the Faculty of Economics on April
20th, 2018. The title of the event was “Foreign language competences of HEIs’ graduates v. the expectations of employers.
How to face the challenges of the contemporary labor market?”. The conference’s main goal was to diagnose the present
situation and propose best solutions to be implemented in a foreign language academic education environment that would
satisfy both students and future employers, and thus contribute to various kinds of prospective partnerships.
IV. COLLABORATION WITH THE LABOR MARKET

The idea to connect the higher education sector and the business one is not new. Both have always collaborated in different
scientific, research and technological areas, which has obviously benefited all the stakeholders. What is more, HEIs’ graduates
naturally become the workforce in the domestic and overseas labor market and so they need to be equipped with the best
possible core course knowledge and effective tools to transfer it to the workplace. Apart from the necessary IT competence, it
is foreign languages that deserve special attention as they are indispensable communication skills in the contemporary, more
and more international labor market. The Foreign Languages Centre has made a substantial effort to facilitate University
graduates’ smooth passage from the comfort of their Alma Mater to the demanding labor market, and finally their successful
employability. Based on the findings form the study and the conference described earlier in this paper, two major plans of
action have emerged: align language course programs with the needs expressed by employers and bring the labor world to
lecture halls of the University.
A. Language programs adjustment
During the conference launched by the Centre in April 2018 a lot of useful information was presented. It came from a
report on the study on HEIs’ graduates’ foreign language competence and a panel discussion of employers’ representatives.
The study revealed that graduates have a rather different idea than employers of what language skills are expected from them
in the workplace (see Figure 1).
Figure 1. Employers’ and graduates’ perspective of the most important language competences in the workplace. Source: A report on the study of foreign
language competences in Polish HEIs, University of Gdansk, 2018
Both employers and graduates put customer service and telephoning skills on top of the hierarchy. Employers, though,
value them more than graduates. An important difference appears when product and service presentation skill
is scrutinized – only 9.2% of graduates see it as important whereas over 45% of employers believe it is one of the crucial skills.
Participating in business meetings and networking are also put slightly higher by employers and so is drawing up reports.
Surprisingly, around 40% of graduates consider reading foreign language specialist literature an important competence and
only around 20% of employers confirm it. The most interesting finding, however, is the value put to the skill of delivering
presentations. For 18% of employers it is the least important competence whereas around 25% of graduates perceive it as more

polocentre.org
icshge.org
important than networking, negotiating and product and service presentation. There may be some inconsistency, however, in
interpreting both presentation skills, as the boundary between them is rather blurred.
As for the panel discussion with five representatives of employers such as Thomson Reuters, Alexander Mann Solutions,
BPH Bank, Gdansk Business Club and The Gdansk Bureau of Expert Auditors, general communicative skills were pointed
out as crucial in the workplace. All of the participants of the panel unanimously agreed that English language proficiency is
crucial in a modern organization and other foreign languages are a highly appreciated asset and may considerably affect
prospective professional advancement.
The data gathered during the conference are a valuable source of information for the Centre’s management as well as
language teachers who attended the event. All the findings are being analyzed at present and will be carefully transferred
to the programs of language courses at the University. Thus, the academic world seems to respond effectively to the needs of
the modern labor market as regards language education.
B. Bringing the labor world into lecture halls
The study presented during the conference coincided with yet another initiative, mainly real collaboration of HEIs’
language units with the business sector, which has never been the case at the Centre before. The proposal was put forth by the
Centre’s director while meeting with potential panel discussion participants. Both Thomson Reuters and Alexander Mann
Solutions’ representatives enjoyed the idea of having their international staff deliver one-off presentations, run workshops,
etc., for language course students in foreign languages on work-related subjects. So far, a pilot workshop entitled “Working in
a Corporate World” has been conducted in English by two Alexander Mann Solutions’ employees. It was thoroughly enjoyed
by law students who later said they were inspired to start learning other foreign languages.
The Centre’s management intends to develop this kind of collaboration in the next academic year and build up similar
relationships with other companies. At present, talks with Amazon and PwC based in Poland are underway. Quite possibly, a
formal comprehensive agreement between the University and these companies will be signed, which should benefit
all the stakeholders.
V. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH OF THE CENTRE’S STAFF

All the tasks accomplished by the Centre’s management so far have been focused on education quality improvement and
its prospective enhancement. However, quality should always be manifested by the people in an organization. Thus, special
care has been taken to nurture a quality culture and encourage development and growth of all the staff of the Centre over the
last two years. Within the next two, a plan for further professional development will be reinforced and it will encompass the
following ideas:
A. Peer observations contribution
Peer observations of language classes is a novelty at the Centre and has been implemented only recently. One of the
objectives of this enterprise is preparing a list of “good practices” observed by peer teachers during a class that should be
promoted and shared by all the academic staff of the Centre. Another benefit of a peer observation system is proposing the
most desired types of professional training to be offered to all the Centre’s teachers in the future. At the end of the last summer
semester the teachers’ observation sheets were carefully analyzed by the Division for Methodology and Quality of Education
who finally proposed the following list of ideas for further staff development:
 working with disabled students
 vocal coaching
 creating an online “bank of best teaching ideas”
 IT skills – advanced WORD and PowerPoint programs, and general Office tools
B. Other ideas for professional development
 The Centre’s management would like to organize internal methodology meetings on a regular basis, i.e., every month or
quarter, where language teachers will have an opportunity to share best ideas or provide feedback from conferences,
seminars or their individual research work.
 Teachers will be encouraged to participate in conferences and workshops run by other institutions as well as publish their
articles or take advantage of other forms of professional development.
 The management of the Centre intends to advocate the idea of lifelong learning and support financially, at least partially,
those teachers who wish to start 3rd cycle degree studies or other forms of education.
 Simultaneously, professional relationships with other Polish and overseas HEIs as well as various teachers’ associations
will be promoted.
All the ideas described above coincide with the UN Sustainable Development Goal 4 premises, i.e. they should enable the
academic staff of the Centre acquire relevant knowledge and skills necessary to foster sustainable development of the HEIs
sector and society.
VI. CONCLUSIONS
Offering high quality education is one of the underlying ideas and foundation to create sustainable development advocated
by the UN in its 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development document. Polish HEIs, including the University of Gdansk, have

polocentre.org
icshge.org
pursued best opportunities to adopt and apply the values promoted in Sustainable Development Goals. Most of all, SDG 4 has
to some extent reflected and challenged all the Foreign Languages Centre’s of the UG strategic enterprises over the last two
years. However, implementing the SDGs will call for a wide range of multifaceted and interconnected social, economic
and environmental challenges, often specific of Polish domestic issues. What is most important – Polish HEIs education should
remain sensitive and responsive not just to the labor market of today but should be able to prepare best candidates for the jobs
that will exist in the years to come.
REFERENCES
Kestin, T.: SDSN Australia/Pacific (2017): Getting started with the SDGs in universities: A guide for universities, higher education institutions, and the
academic sector. Australia, New Zealand and Pacific Edition. Sustainable Development Solutions Network – Australia/Pacific, Melbourne,2017,
Introduction.
Lucien B., Sanja B.: Embedding Quality Culture in Higher Education, European University Association, Brussels, 2007, p. 15.
Quality Management Principles, https://www.iso.org/iso-9001-quality-management.html, p.5 [25.10.2018].
Quality of HE, https://www.eurashe.eu/library/quality-he/ESG_2015 [15.10.2018].
UN. Goal 4 targets, https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/education/ [04.11.2018].
UG Mission and Strategy, https://en.ug.edu.pl/university/ug_mission_and_strategy [02.11.2018].
Vroeijenstijn A.I.: Improvement and Accountability, Navigating Between Scylla and Charybdis, Guide for Quality Assessment in Higher Education, Jessica
Kingsley Publishers, London, 1995, p.34.

polocentre.org
icshge.org

Proyecto de Titulacion Areas Verdes y Calidad de Vida

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Proyecto de Titulacion Areas Verdes y Calidad de Vida

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Conference Proceedings

2nd International Conference on Sustainability, Human

Polo Centre of Sustainability

©2018 PCS Publishing, Co., Gdansk University Press

All rights reserved.

© Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy, 2018

Polo Centre of Sustainability [www.polocentre.org]

Advisory Board, Head

Advisory, Managerial Board Antonio Mercuri

Jang Ook Kim Asta Kondrakeviciute

Dimitris Andreopoulos Allan Bounail

Mateusz Rogucki Luigi Borruso

Pavla Srstková Pouya Samani

Hriday Ch. Sarma Marina P. Perez

Stephen M. Treacy Binita Shah

Tanja Labat Narendra K. Tyagi

Anna Bialon Aurobindo Ogra

Technical Programme Committee M. M. Sheikh

ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 ii ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

Chapter 2. Human Geography . . . 87

Chapter 3. Environment . . . . 151

Chapter 4. Interdisciplinary Societal Studies 236

Chapter 5. Abstracts . . . . . 329

Chapter 6. Poster Papers . . . . 351

Chapter 7. International Journal of Human

Chapter 8. International Journal of

ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 iii ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

Classifying Urban Climate Zones (UCZs) based on Spatial Statistical Analyses 20

Economic Valuation of the Reef Attributes of Cozumel Island 53

Systemic and SMART approach as an instrument for dealing with brownfields 62

Chapter 2. Human Geography 87

Understanding Information Processing and Consumer Preferences Towards Eco-Friendly Brands 98

Urban Sustainability Indices to Green Infrastructure 114

Construction of ‘living’ snow fences along highways in Bulgaria 122

Securitizing Northern Africa – Europe’s Vision of a new Empire? 128

Chapter 3. Environment 151

Urban heat island in maritime Southeast Asia: A systematic review 157

Flooding in Benin City, Nigeria 175

ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 iv ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

Honey Guacamole Lara-Pulido, J.A., Guevara-Sanginés, A., 187

Identifying Spatial Measures to Improve Urban Thermal Comfort 194

Shelterbelts planning in agricultural territories in Bulgaria 229

Chapter 4. Interdisciplinary Societal Studies 236

Adaptive re-use in environmentally sustainable interior design model 260

Creating an effective cohesion policy for Europe 2020 283

Gender mainstreaming in waste education programs: A conceptual framework 293

Chapter 5. Abstracts 329

Sustainability of Critical Infrastructures: Food Security in Germany 332

Sludge management quality 332

ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 v ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

Human-Environment Relationships in Modern and Postmodern Geography 334

New Silk Road: Ukraine 336

Fundamentals Physics Governing Heat Transfer in Improve Biomass Stove 337

A Review on Environmental Selenium Issues 337

A Note on the Area of Paddy Field in Jakarta, Indonesia 337

The Question of the “Death” of Small Farmers in Jakarta, Indonesia 339

The Challenges of Rearing Insects for Food within the UK 341

Rainfall Variability Study in Auchi, Edo State, Nigeria 342

The Social Institution and Site of ‘Balti Lchangra’ 343

ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 vi ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

Low Carbon Development Efficiencies of OECD Countries 346

Degradation of a textile dye by photocatalysis, electro-oxidation and their coupling 347

A Buddhist Perspective on Global Warming-Our Irresistible Fate? 348