Arlington County’s 2019 Update to the Community Energy Plan

E2C2 Energy Committee Recommendations

June 21, 2019

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The E2C2 Energy Committee (EC) recommends eight policy revisions to the draft Community Energy Plan
(CEP) Update (see p. 12), including these three major recommendations: 1

1. Arlington County should adopt a goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
The EC strongly believes that Arlington County must affirm its commitment to the Paris Agreement’s
goal to avoid 1.5°C of global warming by the end of this century. As made clear in an October 2018
IPCC report, exceeding this goal would likely have devastating consequences for the earth’s
environment and humankind. 2 Given the growing urgency of anthropogenic climate change, it is crucial
for Arlington County to exercise its leadership role among localities and show solidarity with the global
community by adopting the emissions reduction pathway recommended by the IPCC.

To integrate this goal into the CEP Update, Arlington can learn from other localities. Cities such as
Boston and New York – which have both adopted net-zero emissions goals – propose using carbon
offsets to remove emissions that prove difficult to remove by 2050. 3, 4 Using a similar approach, New
York State became the 5th state to approve a net-zero emissions goal for 2050 or sooner. 5 (See pp. 3-6.)

2. Arlington County should adopt a policy of achieving net 100% renewable electricity
community-wide by 2035.
As of January 2019, 80 U.S. cities and counties had committed to achieving this goal – and 17 had
already achieved it using strategies available to Arlington. 6 There is no question that net 100%

1
The EC’s comments are based on the draft CEP Update released on May 24, 2019.
2
IPCC, 2018: Summary for Policymakers. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts
of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways,
in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development,
and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla,
A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis,
E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. In Press.
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_SPM_version_report_LR.pdf
3
Boston Green Ribbon Commission, 2019: Carbon Free Boston Summary Report 2019.
https://www.greenribboncommission.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/FINAL_CFB_SummaryRpt_FEB19.pdf
4
New York City, May 2019: OneNYC 2050: A Livable Climate. https://onenyc.cityofnewyork.us/wp-
content/uploads/2019/05/OneNYC-2050-A-Livable-Climate.pdf
5
"New York to Approve One of the World’s Most Ambitious Climate Plans", New York Times, By Jesse McKinley
and Brad Plumer, June 18, 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/18/nyregion/greenhouse-gases-ny.html?
6
Kim, Irwin, “Roadmap to 100: How Local Communities Can Achieve 100% Renewable Electricity Ambitions,”
Capstone Research submitted to Johns Hopkins University, May, 2019 at 21-22. An updated list of communities
making Ready for 100 commitments may be found at https://www.sierraclub.org/ready-for-100/commitments.
Page |2

renewable electricity is technically feasible. On p. 7, we describe strategies that Arlington County can
use to achieve this goal.

Meeting this target will keep Arlington on a path to meet its topline CEP goals and enhance its
reputation as an energy leader. There is strong and growing Arlington community support for the 2035
goal, as reflected in two letters of support from E2C2, 7 a resolution of support by the Arlington Civic
Federation, numerous resolutions passed by civic associations, 8 and hundreds of individual appeals by
Arlington residents.

3. Arlington County Government should lead by example with specific CEP policy commitments
for its operations.
In the draft CEP Update, Arlington County Government commits to “Lead by example…” However, Goal
5 merely traces the same emissions pathway as the broader community, gradually achieving an 88%
reduction by 2050.

The EC recommends that Arlington County adopt several achievable, measurable goals for
government operations. On pp. 8-9, we suggest the following policies:

• Add a policy to achieve net 100% renewable electricity for County Government operations by
2024.
• Add a policy for Arlington County Government to complete a plan and timeline by 2020 to
convert County-owned vehicle fleets to electric vehicles.
• Add a policy to reach net zero energy in County Government operations by 2040.

Arlington County’s original 2013 CEP has been overtaken by rapid and unforeseen changes in
the energy landscape in the space of 6 years. On that basis, we must admit that there is no way
to predict exactly what the energy future will look like thirty y ears from now. Therefore, goals
for 2050 should not be limited by any single forecast or scenario. Instead, our community
should focus on what is possible and set long-term goals that reflect our values and aspirations.
By standing up for our values and pursuing our aspirations, Arlington County will send a
powerful signal to policymakers, investors, and innovators that there is growing public demand
for solutions to meet the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement.

7
“E2C2 Position in Favor of Arlington County Commitment to 100% Renewable Electricity by 2035,”
https://commissions.arlingtonva.us/letters/.
8
Arlington Civic Federation, The Civic Voice, “Resolution in Favor of Arlington’s Transition to Renewable Electricity
by 2035,” March 6, 2018, p. 8.
Page |3

RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Arlington County should adopt a goal of net-zero GHG emissions by 2050.

The draft CEP Update sets a more ambitious emissions reduction trajectory than the 2013 CEP adopted
by the County. Replacing the original 2050 goal of 3 metric tons of carbon-dioxide-equivalent (CO2e)
emissions per capita, the CEP Update establishes a goal of 1 metric ton of CO2e per capita by 2050.

While the EC applauds this step in the right direction, we believe that the timeframe envisioned by the
CEP will be a pivotal era for Arlington and our world in general – an era in which we must all rapidly
transition away from energy sources and consumer behaviors that are increasing the concentration of
GHGs in our atmosphere and causing our climate to warm at an alarming rate.

Given the increasingly urgent need to address anthropogenic climate change, the EC believes that
Arlington County should err on the side of greater ambition – a level of ambition necessary to do our
part to help mitigate this global problem – and adopt a goal of net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. 9

Rationale
In discussions regarding the appropriate CEP emissions reduction goal for 2050, the EC considered three
key questions:

A. What emissions reduction goal would heed the scientific community’s recommended emissions
reduction pathway to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, which Arlington County has
pledged to uphold?
B. What emissions reduction goal would maintain Arlington County’s status as a national leader in
promoting sustainability?
C. What emissions reduction trajectory is likely to be achievable within the next three decades?

The answers to each of these questions point decisively toward adoption of carbon neutrality by 2050 as
the overall goal of Arlington’s CEP.

Question A: What emissions reduction goal would heed the scientific community’s recommended
emissions reduction pathway to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, which Arlington County has
pledged to uphold?
According to the United Nations Convention Framework on Climate Change:

“The Paris Agreement’s central aim is to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change
by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial
levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius.” 10

9
For simplicity, the term “GHG emissions” will subsequently be referred to as “emissions”.
10
UNFCCC, 2018: The Paris Agreement. https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-
agreement/d2hhdC1pcy
Page |4

Arlington County affirmed its support for these principles in June 2017, resolving to “continue to stand
with cities, counties and other public and private sector partners throughout the world to advance
action in accordance with the goals outlined in the Paris Agreement.” 11

In October 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its evaluation of the
global emissions pathway that is necessary to meet the 1.5°C goal adopted in the Paris Agreement:

“In model pathways with no or limited overshoot of 1.5°C, global net anthropogenic CO2 emissions
decline by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 (40–60% interquartile range), reaching net zero around
2050 (2045–2055 interquartile range).” 12

Phrased in less technical terms, the IPCC recommends that global net emissions be reduced in half by
2030 (relative to 2010) and eliminated by 2050.

Furthermore, the IPCC report clarifies the devastating risks associated with exceeding the 1.5°C goal in
favor of the topline 2.0°C goal. For example, the difference between the two goals is the difference
between having and not having coral reefs left on Earth by the end of the century. 13

Given the troubling implications of this report, the EC believes that it is vitally important for Arlington
County to affirm its commitment to the 1.5°C goal under the Paris Agreement by aligning the CEP with
the emissions pathway recommended by the IPCC.

Question B: What emissions reduction goal would maintain Arlington County’s status as a national
leader in promoting sustainability?
Arlington County’s reputation as a leader in environmental sustainability has played a key role in
attracting and retaining families, talent, and businesses that contribute to our community. 14 The County
is well-aware of the need to maintain this reputation and stay ahead of competition from other
localities. In fact, the CEP Update cites this competitive spirit as a rationale for revising Arlington
County’s 2050 goal to be more ambitious:

11
Arlington County Government, 2017: Climate Action Resolution. https://countyboard.arlingtonva.us/climate-
action-resolution/
12
IPCC, 2018: Summary for Policymakers. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts
of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways,
in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development,
and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla,
A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis,
E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. In Press.
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_SPM_version_report_LR.pdf
13
Kelly Levin, World Resources Institute, October 2018: “8 Things You Need to Know About the IPCC 1.5˚C Report.”
https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/10/8-things-you-need-know-about-ipcc-15-c-report
14
ARLNow, February 2018: “EXCLUSIVE: Amazon Employees Are Very Interested in a Particular Article About
Arlington.” https://www.arlnow.com/2018/02/20/amazon-employees-are-very-interested-in-a-particular-article-
about-arlington/
Page |5

“…Arlington County’s leadership role has been challenged by other local governments’ energy initiatives
and actions. AIRE invites this competition and actively promotes and represents the seminal role and
capacity of local governments to promote and accelerate Virginia’s energy objectives and goals.” 15

However, the 2050 goal in the draft of the CEP Update lags behind the goals already adopted by many
other communities, and is out of step with goals currently being adopted across the nation.

For example, in 2016 fourteen cities and towns in Massachusetts, including Boston, signed a
commitment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. 16 To receive guidance in implementing this net-
zero goal, the city of Boston worked with experts at the Boston Green Ribbon Commission and Boston
University to develop “Carbon Free Boston” – a long-term framework comparable to Arlington County’s
CEP and CEP Implementation Framework. 17

These communities in Massachusetts are not alone. The District of Columbia and the cities of
Indianapolis, New York, Seattle, and West Palm Beach also have established goals and are in various
stages of implementation to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. 18

Relative to some of these localities, Arlington County has several advantages that should make it easier
for our community to achieve net-zero emissions, such as a robust public transit system, few emissions
from the industrial sector, and a long history of promoting forward-thinking urban planning and green
building.

The EC believes that Arlington County has no reason to cede its position amongst U.S. communities that
are leading the transition to sustainability. The CEP Update is a timely opportunity to reassert Arlington’s
leadership role – and if we miss this window, the opportunity will not come again for another five years.

Question C: What emissions reduction trajectory is likely to be achievable within the next three
decades?
The EC recommends that Arlington County phase out its net emissions by 2050 – i.e., any emissions that
the community cannot reduce should be offset by removing, or preventing the emission of, an
equivalent amount of GHGs from the atmosphere.

The EC is confident that this goal is achievable by 2050 because: (1) mature technologies exist to provide
carbon-free or carbon-neutral sources of energy, (2) verifiable methods exist to remove carbon from the

15
Arlington County, May 2019: Draft Community Energy Plan. https://arlingtonva.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-
content/uploads/sites/13/2019/05/Draft-CEP-Update-v6-for-distro-5-24-19.pdf
16
City of Cambridge, MA, November 2016: Metro Mayors Climate Commitment.
https://www.cambridgema.gov/CDD/News/2016/11/metromayorsclimatecommitment
17
Boston Green Ribbon Commission, 2019: Carbon Free Boston Summary Report 2019.
https://www.greenribboncommission.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/FINAL_CFB_SummaryRpt_FEB19.pdf
18
CDP, May 2019: “43 cities score an A grade in new cities climate change ranking.”
https://www.cdp.net/en/articles/media/43-cities-score-an-a-grade-in-new-cities-climate-change-ranking
Page |6

atmosphere and technologies to capture and sequester carbon will likely be deployed on a wider scale
by 2050; 19 and (3) many local governments in the United States already have developed roadmaps to
achieve this goal.

For example, the city of Boston’s “Carbon Free Boston” and New York City’s “OneNYC 2050” planning
documents lay out pathways to eliminate net emissions within their respective cities by 2050. 20, 21 They
propose to cut community-wide total emissions by roughly 85 to 90 percent by 2050. But unlike the CEP
Update, they go a step further by proposing to offset the remaining emissions using carbon offsets or
carbon credits. 22, 23

In addition to the considerations outlined above regarding science, leadership and feasibility, the EC
would like to emphasize an important point regarding long-term goal-setting:

Just as Arlington County’s original 2013 CEP has been overtaken by rapid and unforeseen changes in the
energy landscape in the space of 6 years, we must admit that there is no way to reliably predict what
the energy future will be like thirty years from now. Therefore, goals for 2050 should not be limited by
any single forecast or scenario. Instead, our community should focus on what is possible and set long-
term goals that reflect our values and aspirations. By standing up for our values and pursuing our
aspirations, Arlington County will send a powerful signal to policymakers, investors, and innovators that
there is growing public demand for solutions to meet the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement.

2. Arlington County should adopt a policy of achieving net 100% renewable

electricity community-wide by 2035.
Achieving net 100% renewable electricity in Arlington by 2035 involves adopting the strategies used
successfully by communities, universities, large corporations and other entities that already have

19
Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, Retrieved June 2019: Carbon Capture:
https://www.c2es.org/content/carbon-capture/
20
Boston Green Ribbon Commission, 2019: Carbon Free Boston Summary Report 2019.
https://www.greenribboncommission.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/FINAL_CFB_SummaryRpt_FEB19.pdf
21
New York City, May 2019: OneNYC 2050: A Livable Climate. https://onenyc.cityofnewyork.us/wp-
content/uploads/2019/05/OneNYC-2050-A-Livable-Climate.pdf
22
As described by the “Carbon Free Boston” framework: “A carbon offset certificate, more often referred to simply
as an offset or carbon credit, represents a metric ton of verified carbon dioxide or equivalent GHG emission that is
permanently reduced, avoided, or removed (“sequestered”) from the atmosphere through an action taken by the
creator (i.e., project developer) of the offset. After the project and its GHG impact are verified by an independent
third party, the creator is awarded a certificate showing the size of the reduction in tons of carbon-dioxide
equivalent (CO2e). The certificates can be traded or retired (that is, not re-sold); retiring emissions is an essential
component of an overall voluntary emissions reduction strategy, alongside activities to lower an organization’s
direct and indirect emissions.”
23
As described by the “OneNYC 2050” framework: “One carbon credit represents one metric ton of carbon dioxide
equivalent that is avoided or removed from the atmosphere through a project that is outside of a city’s emissions
inventory boundary. Credits are issued for projects such as planting new forests or capturing and destroying
methane emissions from farms. Projects must follow strict environmental integrity principles to ensure the credits
they generate are valid.”
Page |7

transitioned, or are transitioning, to clean energy. As of January 2019, 80 U.S. cities and counties had
committed to achieving this goal and 17 already had achieved it. 24

In light of the growing number of communities that already have achieved this goal using strategies
available to Arlington, there is no question about the technical feasibility of reaching net 100%
renewable electricity. “Net 100%” does not mean that all electricity used in the County must be
renewable, but that any nonrenewable electricity is offset by a certified method.

Examples of approaches that have succeeded in other communities, 25 and that are available to
Arlington, include:

• Maximize energy efficiency and distributed solar deployment in Arlington to reduce total utility-
scale renewable electricity required. These strategies are core elements of the draft CEP Update.

• Advocate for a variety of state policies that would boost access to renewable electricity in
Arlington. Examples of measures under consideration in the Virginia General Assembly, and that
have been passed in many other states, include: 1) Remove unjustified barriers to distributed
solar and community solar; 2) require a minimum percentage of renewable electricity from
Virginia utilities, known as a mandatory renewable portfolio standard (RPS); 3) require utilities
to offer a variety of green tariff options; 4) allow competition in the electricity marketplace; and
allow localities such as Arlington to impose energy code requirements that are more stringent
than those provided by the state energy conservation code.

• Take advantage of existing legal authority to create a Community Choice Aggregation (CCA),
through which Arlington can purchase its community-wide electricity supply on the wholesale
market while Dominion Virginia Power continues to provide distribution, billing, and other
services. 26

• Negotiate with Dominion Virginia Power to reach mutual agreement on a pathway to 100%
renewable electricity by 2035 for Arlington, including a joint effort to secure any needed
legislative or regulatory approval. 27

24
Kim, Irwin, “Roadmap to 100: How Local Communities Can Achieve 100% Renewable Electricity Ambitions,”
Capstone Research submitted to Johns Hopkins University, May, 2019 at 21-22. An updated list of communities
making Ready for 100 commitments may be found at https://www.sierraclub.org/ready-for-100/commitments.
25
Kim, Irwin, “Roadmap to 100: How Local Communities Can Achieve 100% Renewable Electricity Ambitions,”
Capstone Research submitted to Johns Hopkins University, May, 2019 at 24-29.
26
For an overview of the potential for Community Choice Aggregation in Virginia, see Virginia Clean Energy at
https://www.virginiaclean.energy/what-is-cca.html.
27
This is the approach used by Salt Lake City in securing an agreement from its investor owned utility, Rocky
Mountain Power, to act as the City’s agent in securing renewable electricity to meet the City’s 100% by 2032 goal.
For more information, see Kim, Irwin, “Roadmap to 100: How Local Communities Can Achieve 100% Renewable
Electricity Ambitions,” Capstone Research submitted to Johns Hopkins University, May, 2019 at 25-26.
Page |8

None of these approaches is simple or easy, but 15 years is enough time to pursue all of them, if
necessary. To maximize the probability of success, work toward this goal should begin as soon as
possible.

Meeting this goal will keep Arlington on a path to meet its CEP goals and to enhance its reputation as an
energy leader.

The costs and benefits of implementation are expected to be strongly net positive over time. That is
because solar electricity is already the least expensive form of new generation in Virginia, and costs are
expected to continue to fall steadily, reaching low levels by 2035. Fossil fuel costs are expected to rise
over the same period. 28 In addition, economic and public health benefits from renewable energy are
substantial. 29

There is strong and growing Arlington community support for the 2035 goal, as reflected in two letters
of support from E2C2, 30 a resolution of support by the Arlington Civic Federation, 31 numerous
resolutions passed by civic associations, and hundreds of individual appeals by Arlington residents.

3. Arlington County Government should lead by example with specific CEP policy
commitments for its operations.

Goal 5 of the draft CEP Update begins by declaring that Arlington County Government 32 will “Lead by
example…” However, the only measurable policy commitment by Arlington County Government is to
trace the same emissions pathway as the broader community, gradually achieving an 88% reduction by
2050.

This oversight can be corrected by setting several achievable, measurable goals (in CEP planning
language, “policies” or “milestones”) for government operations. We suggest the following:

• Add a policy to achieve net 100% renewable electricity for County Government operations by
2024.

28
See, e.g., Bloomberg News, “Wind and Solar are Crushing Fossil Fuels,” April 6, 2016, available online at
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-06/wind-and-solar-are-crushing-fossil-fuels.
29
A Stanford-based research team modeled 100% renewable energy for Arlington County and found a net per
person gain of $7,156 per year due to health and climate cost savings. Jacobson et al., “100% clean and renewable
Wind, Water and Sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for 53 towns and cities in North America,”
Sustainable Cities and Society, 42, at 22-37 (2018).
http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/TownsCities.pdf. For an infographic of the results for
Arlington County, see: “100% Arlington, A vision for the transition to 100% wind, water & solar energy”:
https://thesolutionsproject.org/why-clean-energy/#/map/cities/location/Arlington.
30
“E2C2 Position in Favor of Arlington County Commitment to 100% Renewable Electricity by 2035,”
https://commissions.arlingtonva.us/letters/.
31
Arlington Civic Federation, The Civic Voice, “Resolution in Favor of Arlington’s Transition to Renewable Electricity
by 2035,” March 6, 2018, p. 8.
32
All CEP commitments by Arlington County Government are assumed to apply equally to Arlington Public Schools.
Page |9

• Add a policy for Arlington County Government to complete a plan and timeline by 2020 to
convert County-owned vehicle fleets to electric vehicles.

• Add a policy to reach net zero energy in County Government operations by 2040.

Without these or similar commitments, Arlington County Government’s goal of “leading by example”
will fall short from the outset.

Because these are leadership commitments by Arlington County Government, they belong in the CEP
itself, as a County Board-approved policy-level document, rather than in an unapproved subsidiary
document.

NOTE OF CAUTION: MODELING ARLINGTON’S ENERGY FUTURE IN 2050

Modeled scenarios of the distant future are subject to extremely high uncertainty and should only
considered as part of a wide range of possible outcomes.

The draft CEP Update relies substantially on a modeled scenario that shows a pathway to the proposed
88% reduction in emissions by 2050. The scenario consists of many explicit and implicit assumptions.
When that scenario is extended out to 2050, or 2035, it is subject to a high degree of uncertainty. It
represents, at best, one of very many possible outcomes. With minor changes, the scenario would
represent a pathway to carbon neutrality and 100% renewable electricity.

Consider, as one example, the scenario’s implicit assumption that there will be minimal public policy
change affecting the energy sector between now and 2050. The rationale behind this assumption is that
policy change is beyond our control, and it is better to make a conservative assumption of “little or no
change” than to predict that policy will move in a particular direction. This approach is appropriate in
some contexts. However, in the case of the CEP, it is problematic for three reasons:

a. It provides misleading results because, in fact, there is a high likelihood that public policy
will shift toward increased policy action as Americans experience the harmful impacts of
climate change and as new scientific data becomes more compelling. “No change” seems to
be an unreasonably conservative assumption in this context.

b. An important part of Arlington’s CEP involves working with like-minded jurisdictions to

exercise collective influence at the state and federal levels to secure vital public policy
improvements for Arlington County. To assume, within the same CEP, that this crucial
strategy fails (i.e., policies do not improve over time) is a choice worth reconsidering. Public
policy should be regarded as an important lever over which Arlington County has influence,
not as something we are powerless to change.

c. The purpose of scenarios is not to predict the future, but as a planning tool. Scenarios are
only useful as a planning tool when used as a set, allowing policy makers to look at a range
P a g e | 10

of feasible outcomes and compare how different policy choices and assumptions affect
outcomes. Therefore, if the County Board wishes to use scenarios as a tool, it should
compare a variety of scenarios, including some that assume that energy-related public
policies can, with Arlington’s help, be improved substantially over the next 30 years.

The EC recommends that policy makers take two actions to make appropriate use of modeling
scenarios:

(1) Acknowledge the inherent limitations of modeling as a tool, and the need for policy makers
to use their own independent political values and strategic thinking in setting energy and
climate goals; and

(2) Adopt the standard practice of considering a range of scenarios. 33 An additional scenario
might assume, for example, a substantial price on carbon emissions; access by Arlington, as
a community, to market-priced renewable electricity sufficient to supply 100% of demand;
and permission from the state legislature for Arlington to adopt energy conservation code
requirements more stringent than those provided by the state code. It seems reasonable to
assume that these policies, or policies with a similar effect, will be adopted at some point in
the coming decade.

CONCLUSION
The EC appreciates the opportunity to share these comments. We are prepared to provide additional
information on any aspect of our recommendations at any time. We look forward to staying involved as
the CEP Update and implementation process unfolds.

33
This is a practice adopted by the International Energy Administration (IEA) in issuing its annual renewable energy
scenarios. For years, its scenarios proved wildly inaccurate, and became a subject of ridicule. The primary reason
was IEA’s practice of assuming no change in public policy. In response to criticism, IEA developed an additional
scenario that considers the overall direction of policy changes toward sustainability goals and models continued
policy advances. For a recent analysis of IEA energy modeling practices see, e.g., http://ieefa.org/is-the-
sustainable-development-scenario-reflecting-the-paris-agreement/.
P a g e | 11

Arlington County’s 2019 Update to the Community Energy Plan

E2C2 Energy Committee Policy-related Recommendations
June 21, 2019

This table summarizes policy recommendations of the E2C2 Energy Committee to strengthen Arlington County’s 2019 Update to the Community Energy Plan.

ID Location Current Draft EC Recommendation

1 General Reducing Arlington’s greenhouse gas emissions to
1 metric ton CO 2 e per capita.
2 General Specific equity-related goals are only provided for
one of the six goals, “Buildings.”
3 Policy 1.1 “By 2050, total building energy usage in Arlington
(p. 23) should be, at a minimum, 38% lower than in the
2007 baseline year (despite growth in number of
households and corresponding economic
activity).”
4 Policy 2.1 “Seek opportunities to develop or facilitate
(p. 25) projects that make Arlington’s energy
infrastructure more resilient.”
5 Policy 3.1 “Become a solar leader with installation and use
(p. 27) of 160 megawatts (MW) of on-site solar
electricity.”
• Set goal instead at “net-zero” greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
o See “Energy Committee CEP Update Recommendations” Recommendation #1.
• Integrate equity-related policies into all Goal areas.
o For example: “Develop programs advancing renewable energy/clean
transportation access for low and moderate income communities.”
Suggest:
• Intermediate targets for 2020, 2030, and 2040 for this policy.
• Corresponding percentage reduction in emissions associated with this policy.
• If possible, show how goals are affected by projected percentage increases in households,
population, or floorspace.
• This Goal Area 2 could benefit from greater specificity, including specific, verifiable
indicators and benchmarks for evaluating energy resilience.
• At minimum, set a policy to conduct a resilience assessment within the next five years.
• Original 160 MW goal was set in 2013 and based on a limited and now-outdated SAIC study
that used now-obsolete assumptions for suitable rooftop space and solar module efficiency
rates.
• This policy should be based on up to date projections, which are likely to show significantly
higher potential for on-site solar electricity.

6 Goal 3 “Increase locally generated energy supply using • Goal 3’s phrasing with the word “locally” implies this goal only refers to on-site generation.
(p. 27) renewable energy options.” o Revise this wording to also include contractual purchases of off-site, additionality-
driven renewable energy.
7 Goal 3 “Increase locally generated energy supply using • Adopt a policy of net 100% renewable electricity, community-wide by 2035.
(p. 27) renewable energy options.” o See “Energy Committee CEP Update Recommendations” Recommendation #2.
8 Goal 5 “Lead by example and integrate CEP goals into all • Arlington County Government should lead by example with specific CEP policy
(p. 31) County Government activities.” commitments for its operations.
o See “Energy Committee CEP Update Recommendations” Recommendation #3.