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• The GCC conventional bond market bounced back in Q2. In value terms
primary issuances increased by 33% QoQ while the number of issuances more
than doubled. The largest issues came from the Dubai Electricity and Water
Authority (DEWA) and Bahrain-based Gulf International Bank which raised
some USD1bn each. In value terms, conventional government debt issuance
totaled USD12.2bn with Kuwait raising USD1.7bn through seven short-term
issues and Qatar placing USD1.4bn in a new domestic issue.
16,000 30
14,000
25
12,000
Value (USDmn)
20
10,000
8,000 15
6,000
10
4,000
5
2,000
0 0
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
JULY 2010 2
GCC DEBT MARKETS
The revival of debt capital markets took place against the backdrop of relative
anemia in IPO and bank lending activity. Sentiment was hit by the Greek crisis and
Some evidence of its potential contagion effects. The GCC equity markets reflected this with falls of
improving bank lending 7.5%-20.7%, which led to negative year-to-date returns. This continued to depress
may have depressed the IPO market where Saudi Arabia was the only GCC nation with any activity at all
corporate bond issuance in during the quarter. In comparison with Q1, aggregate issuance declined marginally
2Q10
from USD420.5 to USD409.2 while the number of issues dropped from six to two.
The Knowledge Economic City Company’s issue of USD272mn was the largest Gulf
IPO during the quarter.
The recovery of the GCC banking sector, which was hit by a tumultuous 2009,
similarly experienced renewed delay to its normalization as banks shied away from
lending amid uncertain market conditions. In Saudi Arabia, bank lending to the
private sector grew by a mere 1.6% to USD189.8bn in the first four months of the
year while that to the government sector increased 6.8% to USD8.0bn. Lending
activity in the UAE remained constrained with credit to the private sector declining
by 0.7% to USD164.2 in the first fourth months of 2010 while lending to the
government sector rose by 0.6%.
Exhibit 2: Mixed progress in bank lending Exhibit 3: Slowdown in IPO activity during 2Q10
Value (LHS) Number (RHS)
Saudi Arabia UAE
1200.0 7
2.0%
1.0% 1000.0 6
0.0% 5
Credit growth (MoM %)
800.0
Mar-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Sep-09
Apr-09
Aug-09
Apr-10
USD (mn)
-1.0% 4
600.0
-2.0% 3
-3.0% 400.0
2
-4.0% 200.0 1
-5.0%
0.0 0
-6.0% 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q10
Source: Respective Central Bank, NCBC Research , * As of April 2010 Source: Zawya NCBC Research
The progress made in restructuring troubled sukuk boosted sentiment also in the
Shariah-compliant market segment. The Dubai World deal in May was the most
important milestone in this regard. Reflecting the improvement in investor
confidence, Dubai’s credit default swaps have declined by about 20% since the last
quarter. The HSBC/DIFX GCC Sukuk Index rose by 1.1% MoM and 10.7%YoY in June.
JULY 2010 3
GCC DEBT MARKETS
Exhibit 4: HSBC GCC sukuk total returns Exhibit 5: Dow Jones Citi global sukuk index
120
130.0
115
120.0
110
105 110.0
100
100.0
95
90.0
90
85 80.0
80
70.0
Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10
Exhibit 6: Global value of primary sukuk issues Exhibit 7: Global number of primary sukuk issues
GCC (LHS) non-GCC (LHS) Total (RHS) GCC (LHS) non-GCC (LHS) Total (RHS)
9,000 14,000 80 80
8,000 70 70
number of issues
12,000
7,000 60 60
10,000
6,000 50 50
8,000
USD mn
5,000
40 40
4,000 6,000
30 30
3,000
4,000 20 20
2,000
2,000 10 10
1,000
0 0 0 0
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
JULY 2010 4
GCC DEBT MARKETS
The positive trend in sovereign issuance looks set to continue and the Qatar
Exchange may even follow Tadawul’s footsteps and start secondary bond and sukuk
trading later this year. Reflecting the broader positive effect of government activity,
Qatari Diar, the property arm of Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund launched a
USD3.5bn dual tranche bond in July. This was the government’s first international
offering since November 2009 when it raised USD7bn through a multi-tranche bond
sale.
Exhibit 8: GCC sovereign sukuk issues Exhibit 9: GCC corporate sukuk issues
7
Value (USDmn)
6 2000 2
1,500
5
1500
4
1,000
3 1000 1
500 2
500
1
0 0
0 0
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10
By contrast to the recovery in the sovereign space, 2Q10 saw only one corporate
Corporate sukuk issuance sukuk issuance, highlighting the continued vulnerability of this market to the
was depressed during
uncertain economic backdrop. Corporate involvement in the GCC sukuk market has
2Q10 as the quarter saw
been minimal since the beginning of 2009 with the exception of 3Q09 where
only a single issue from the
USD2.7bn was raised through two corporate issues. Symptomatic of shaky investor
Saudi Electricity Company
confidence, corporates postponed their bond issuance plans waiting for more
JULY 2010 5
GCC DEBT MARKETS
only nine trades during the previous quarter. The total value of registered trades fell to SAR46.6mn from
2Q10 SAR365.7mn in the preceding three months. By contrast, the total volume of equity
trades was up 33.4% during 2Q10 while turnover increased by 39.8%.
JULY 2010 6
GCC DEBT MARKETS
1000.0
800.0
600.0
400.0
200.0
0.0
Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10
Even as regional sovereigns will pursue divergent strategies in the near term,
improving investor sentiment in the GCC will encourage corporate bonds/sukuks in
the future. Some recently announced issues in the GCC region include:
• Qatari Diar Finance, the property wing of Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund,
concluded its dual tranche bond sale on July 14. The USD3.5bn issue
comprised USD1.0bn of five-year notes priced 180 basis points over
comparable US Treasuries and USD2.5bn of 10-year notes priced to yield
190 basis points over US Treasury bonds.
JULY 2010 7
GCC DEBT MARKETS
Amount Subscription
Organizations Country
(USD mn) Date
ADIB Tier 1 Sukuk UAE 544.5 2010
Taqa Malaysian Sukuk UAE N/A 2010
Ahmed Salem Bugshan Sukuk Saudi Arabia 100 2010
Al Aqeeq Sukuk Saudi Arabia 186.7 2010
Al Mazaya Holding Sukuk Kuwait N/A 2010
Al Oula Sukuk Saudi Arabia 800.1 2010
Al Safwa Group Sukuk Kuwait 150 2010
Al Salaam Bank - Bahrain Sukuk Bahrain 227.3 2010
Dar Al Dhabi Sukuk Kuwait 344.5 2010
Dubai Bank Sukuk (Tranche 1) UAE 500 2010
Ekttitab Sukuk Kuwait 150-200 2010
Emaar Sukuk Limited UAE 2,000 2010
First Investment Company Sukuk Kuwait 155 2010
Dubai Sukuk UAE N/A 2010
Islamic Development Bank 2010 Sukuk Saudi Arabia N/A 2010
Ithmaar Mandatory Convertible Sukuk Bahrain N/A 2010
Jabal Omar Sukuk Saudi Arabia N/A 2010
Nakheel Sukuk 4 UAE N/A 2010
Tabreed 2010 Sukuk UAE N/A 2010
QIB Sukuk Qatar 750 2010
Jubail Refining and Petrochemical Company Saudi Arabia USD997.7 2010
Sukuk
Saudi Electricity Sukuk IV Saudi Arabia N/A 2011
Unicorn Capital Saudi Arabia Sukuk Saudi Arabia N/A 2010
Source: Zawya, NCBC Research
JULY 2010 8
GCC DEBT MARKETS
JULY 2010 9
GCC DEBT MARKETS
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JULY 2010