©OECD/IEA

© OECD/IEA - 2008
- 2008
 World primary energy demand in the
Reference Scenario: this is unsustainable!

18 000
Mtoe

Other renewables
16 000
Hydro
14 000
Nuclear
12 000
10 000 Biomass

8 000 Gas

6 000 Coal
4 000 Oil
2 000
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030 – an average rate of increase
of 1.6% per year – with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise
© OECD/IEA - 2008
 Change in oil demand by region
in the Reference Scenario, 2007-2030

OECD Pacific
OECD Europe
OECD North America
Africa
E. Europe/Eurasia
Latin America
Other Asia
India
Middle East
China
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
mb/d

All of the growth in oil demand comes from non-OECD, with China contributing 43%, the
Middle East & India each about 20% & other emerging Asian economies most of the rest
© OECD/IEA - 2008
 World oil production by source
in the Reference Scenario
120
mb/d

Natural gas liquids

Non-conventional oil
100
Crude oil - yet to be
developed (inc. EOR)
80 or found
Crude oil - currently
producing fields
60

40

20

0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

64 mb/d of gross capacity needs to be installed between 2007 & 2030 – six times the current
capacity of Saudi Arabia – to meet demand growth & offset decline
© OECD/IEA - 2008
 A sea change: world oil & gas production by
company type in the Reference Scenario

Oil Gas
120 4 500
mb/d

Bcm
100 3 750

80 3 000

60 2 250

40 1 500

20 750

0 0
2007 2015 2030 2006 2015 2030
NOCs Private companies

Almost 80% of the projected increase in output of both oil & gas comes from
national companies – on the assumption that investment is forthcoming
© OECD/IEA - 2008
 The “Dire Straits”: Oil Export Flows
from the Middle East

Rising reliance on Middle East oil will increase flows through vulnerable
chokepoints – heightening the impact of a supply disruption
© OECD/IEA - 2008
 EU natural gas market outlook

800 Imports - other countries

Bcm

700 Imports - Middle East

600 Imports - Africa

Imports - Russia and

500
other TE
Domestic production
400

300

200

100

0
2007 2030

EU import dependency rises from 58% today to 86% in 2030 as a result of declining
domestic production and increasing demand
© OECD/IEA - 2008
 World natural gas reserves and Gas Exporting
Countries Forum (GECF)

World total: 179 Tcm (2008)

The 11 members of GECF account for close to three quarters of global gas reserves,
while just 2 of them – Russia & Iran – account for over 40% .
© OECD/IEA - 2008
 Energy-related CO2 emissions
in the Reference Scenario
45
Gigatonnes

International
marine bunkers
40 and aviation
Non-OECD - gas
35
Non-OECD - oil
30 Non-OECD - coal
OECD - gas
25
OECD - oil
20 OECD - coal

15

10

0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

97% of the projected increase in emissions between now & 2030 comes from non-OECD
countries – three-quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone
© OECD/IEA - 2008
 Reductions in energy-related CO2
emissions in the climate-policy scenarios

45 550 450
Gigatonnes

Policy Policy
Scenario Scenario
40 9% Nuclear
14% CCS
Renewables & biofuels
35 23%
Energy efficiency

30 54%

25

20
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Reference Scenario 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario

While technological progress is needed to achieve some emissions reductions, efficiency

gains and deployment of existing low-carbon energy accounts for most of the savings
© OECD/IEA - 2008
 World energy-related CO2 emissions
in 2030 by scenario

40
Gigatonnes

35
OECD
30

25

20
World
15
Non-OECD World
10

0
Reference Scenario 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario

OECD countries alone cannot put the world onto a 450-ppm trajectory,
even if they were to reduce their emissions to zero
© OECD/IEA - 2008
 Total oil production in 2030 by
scenario

120
Non-OPEC
OPEC
mb/d

100 9 mb/d
16 mb/d

80

60

40

20

0
2007 Reference Scenario 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario
2030 2030 2030

Curbing CO2 emissions would improve energy security by cutting demand for fossil fuels, but
even in the 450 Policy Scenario, OPEC production increases by 12 mb/d from now to 2030
© OECD/IEA - 2008
 Summary & conclusions

 Current energy trends are patently unsustainable — socially,

environmentally, economically
 Oil will remain the leading energy source but...
> The era of cheap oil is over, although price volatility will remain
> The oil market is undergoing major and lasting structural change, with
national companies in the ascendancy
 Energy and geopolitics will be increasingly interconnected
 We need a major decarbonisation of the world’s energy system --
Copenhagen is crucial
 Addressing environmental issues will substantially improve energy
security
 Financial crisis can plant the seeds for an “energy investment crisis”
© OECD/IEA - 2008