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Tanaka, N.
(Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Japan)
Prediction of climate change impacts on natural
forests and adaptation means
Statistical Model
Current climate
(a) 1-km Mesh climatic data
Future climate (2081-2100)
(b) RCM20 Scenario (+2.8℃)
(c) MIROC Scenario (+4.3℃)
Climatic variables:
WI: Warmth index (degree*month)
TMC: Minimum temp. in coldest month
(degree)
PRS: Summer precipitation (mm)
PRW: Winter precipitation (mm)
10 conifer species for climate change impact assessment
Empty habitat
No data
Presence
Absence
Refugia
Vulnerable areas
Non habitat
Marginal habitat
Suitable habitat
Suitable habitats:
WI<73.9, -12.2<TMC (equivalent to 42.7<WI), PRW<646, 963<PRS
No data
Presence
在
不在
Absence
Non
非生育域 habitat
Marginal habitat
辺縁域
適域
Suitable habitat
Scanning
Geo reference
Presence
detection
Resolution:
25×25 km2
Climate change scenarios (WorldClim)
Last glacial
maximum
(21,000 yrs BP)
Current
CCCMA a2a
(2080-2099)
Climate change scenarios (WorldClim)
Last glacial
maximum
(21,000 yrs BP)
Current
CCCMA a2a
(2080-2099)
Projecting potential habitats of Fagus hayatae
under climate change
Actual distribution
Occurrence
probability