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SE 513: System Identification
Lecture 4:
Simulation and prediction
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Objectives:
• Describe how to predict future output values
• Illustrate different use of system descriptions
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Expected Outcomes
• Formulate k‐step‐ahead prediction of v(t)
• Formulate k‐step‐ahead prediction of y(t)
• Introduce inverse noise model.
• Compute the different terms in the prediction equation.
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Lecture Outlines
• Prediction
• One‐step‐ahead prediction of v.
• One‐step‐ahead prediction of y.
• Unknown initial conditions.
• k‐step‐ahead prediction of y.
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• Assume that the system is described by
• Where e(t) is white noise with variance
(3.4)
• Using convolution, we know that
with
and h(0)=1, (monic)
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Noise inverse model
• Assumption: Noise model in invertible
(3.6)
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Noise inverse model
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Example:
1‐0.8z‐1
Z Z‐0.8
Z
‐0.8
‐0.8
0
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Example 2:
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Z‐transform table
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Practice
• Compute the inverse model of the noise filter
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Example 3.1: Practice
• Assume
• What will be the inverse of the noise model?
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One step‐ahead prediction of v
• The one step prediction of v(t) knowing all the all past up to t‐1 is
given by
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One step‐ahead prediction of v
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Example 3.3
Auto‐regressive
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One step ahead prediction of y(t)
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One step ahead prediction of y(t)
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• Define
• Then
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Example
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The prediction error equation
• e(t) is called the innovation at time t.
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K‐step‐ahead prediction of v
Expand
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• Let’s define
• then
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Example
• H(q)=1+0.8q‐1+0.82q‐2+…..
• What will be
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K‐step‐ahead prediction of y
• Recall
• define
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Prediction error
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Other method to find a k‐ahead predictor for
y(t)
• Advantage: independent from noise characteristic (H(q))
• If W(q) has an exponential decay, the prediction of y(t) will be less
erroneous with respect to the initial values.
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Summary
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Assignment
• Your assignment is as follows:
• 1‐ Problems: 3E.1, 3E.2, 3T.1 and 3D.2
• 2‐ Practice: Redo examples and practice problems done in class
• Reading: Read Chapter 4.
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