Republic of the Philippines

Department ofEducation
Region XVIII Negros Island Region
Division OfKabankalan City
Inapoy National High School

Lesson Plan in Statistics and Probability

Time Frame 60min

I. Objectives. At the end of the lesson, the learner should be able to:

define probability in terms of empirical frequencies

show how to apply the General Addition Rule, and the Multiplication Rule

II. Learning Tasks

a. Subject Matter: Probability

i. Concept Ideas
1. General Addition rule, Multiplication Rule

b. Processed Skills
1. Computing the Probability of an Event

c. Value Focused

d. Reference
De Veau, R. D., Velleman, P. F., and Bock, D. E. (2006). Intro Stats. Pearson Ed. Inc.
Workbooks in Statistics 1, 11 th Edition. Institute of Statistics, UP Los Baños, College Laguna 4031
Probability and Statistics: Module 18. (2013). Australian Mathematical Sciences Institute and Education
Services Australia. Retrieved from http://www.amsi.org.au/ESA_Senior_Years/PDF/Probability4a.pdfe.
Materials
1. Manila Paper
2. Markers
3. Activity sheets

III. Developmental Activity

a. Pre – Activity

i. Prayer
ii. Checking Attendance
iii. Motivation
Begin the session with a discussion on your uncertainty over summaries generated from data,
especially when data are “random” samples of a larger population of units (i.e. people, farms, firms, etc).
Examples: (i) approval ratings or proportion of people voting for a candidate (in an opinion poll); (ii)
average family income (in the Philippine Statistical Authority’s triennial Family Income and Expenditure
Survey); (iii) average prices of commodities (from sample outlets)

iv. Presentation
The teacher will define probability as a numerical representation of the likelihood of occurrence
of an event. Its value is between zero (0) and one (1 ). When the value approaches 1, this means the event
is very likely to occur, while a value close to zero (0) means it is not likely to occur.
The teacher will explain that people can quantify uncertainty through the notion of
PROBABILITY (or Chance). Suggest to learners that if they were asked for the probability that they
would pass the next quiz, they may give a number between 0% and 100 percent.
When considering probabilities of events, the teacher will inform that learners should be guided
to consider a particular context wherein possible outcomes are well defined and can be specified, at least
in principle, beforehand. This context is called random process wherein we do not know which of the
possible outcomes will occur, but we do know what is on the list of possible outcomes.
Four principles in random process:
a. the outcome is certain.
Examples may be getting a head (event) in the next toss of a two-headed coin (random process) or getting
a number of at most 6 (event) when a die is thrown once (random process)
b. the outcome is impossible. Examples may be getting a tail (event) in the next toss of a two-headed
coin (random process) or getting a number greater than 6 (event) when a die is thrown once (random
process)
c. the outcome has an even chance of occurring.
Examples may be a couple having a boy (event) as their next child (random process) or getting a
red card (event) when randomly selecting a card from a deck of cards (random process)
d. the outcome has a strong but not a certain chance of occurring. Example might be getting a
sum of at most 11 (event) when a pair of dice is thrown (random process)

Properties of the probability of an event:

the probability of an event is a non-negative value. In fact, it ranges from zero (0) (when the event is
impossible) to one (when the event is sure). The closer the value to one, the more likely the event will
occur
the probability of the sure event is one (In other words, the chance of a sure event is 100 percent).
if A and B are mutually exclusive events, meaning it is impossible for these two events to occur at the
same time, then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B). This is called the Addition Rule.
The teacher will mention to learners that the calculation of the probability of an event may
sometimes be considered directly from the nature of the phenomenon/random process, with some
assumptions of symmetry.

Example 1: Tell learners that a box contains green and blue chips. A chip is then drawn from the
box. If it is green, you win P100. If it is blue, you win nothing.
• Learners have a choice between two boxes:
– Box A with 3 blue chips and 2 green chips
– Box B with 30 blue chips and 20 green chips
• Which would learners prefer??? Some learners may say B, but tell learners that it actually should not
matter, because the chance of winning Php100 is 2/5 =40% in box A, while in box B, the chance of
winning is 20/50 =40%. Same probability.

Mention to learners that sometimes, we may have extra information that can change the
probability of an event. Give the following definition of conditional probability. The conditional
probability of event A given that B has occurred is denoted as P(A|B) and defined as:

Example 2: Suppose that we want to randomly select a student from among Grades 9 to 12 in a
certain school

Compute the probability of selecting grade 11 student, given that the student is a male.

Define events A and B as:

A = event that student selected is a Grade 11 student
B = event that student selected is male, then

Sometimes, the extra information provided may not really change the probability of an event. In
this case, the events are said to be independent. The conditional probability of A given B may still be
equal to the (unconditional) probability of event A. This is also called the Multiplication Rule
Two events A and B are said to be independent if P (A and B) = P (A) P (B)
Intuitively, we call events such as tossing a coin (or dice) several times independent since future
tosses are not affected by previous outcomes.
 b. Activity Proper
The teacher will group the class into five. Compute for the probability.
The family of Tony delivers newpapers, one to each house in their village.
Philippine Star 250 Manila Times 140
Philippine Daily Inquirer 300 Manila Standard Today 100
Manila Bulletin 150 Daily Tribune 60
What is the probability that a house picked at random has:
a. the Manila Times?
b. the Manila Standard Today or the Philippine Daily Inquirer?
c. a newspaper other than Daily Tribune?
Answer: a. P(Manila Times) = 140/1000 =7/50;
b. P(Manila Standard Today or PDI)= (100 + 300)/1000 = 2/5 ;
c. P(other than Daily Tribune) = 1 – P(Daily Tribune) = 1 – (60/1000)= 940/1000 = 47/50

c. Analysis. How did you make or answer your activity?

d. Abstraction. What is probability and how to assign it?

e. Application. How can we know the probability of a certain event?

IV. Evaluation

1. What would be the probability of

a. picking a black card at random from a standard deck of 52 cards?
b. picking a face card (i.e. a king, queen, or jack)?
c. not picking a face card?

Answer:
a. P(Black) = 26/52= ½ ;
b. P(Face)= 12/52 = 3/13 ;
c. P(not Face) = 1 – (3 /13) =10/13

2. What is the probability of rolling, on a fair dice:

a. a 3?
b. an even number?
c. zero?
d. a number greater than 4?
e. a number lying between 0 and 7?
f. a multiple of 3 given that an even number was drawn

Answer:
a. P(‘3’) = 1 /6 ;
b. P(Even)= 3/6 = 1 /2 ;
c. P(‘0’) = 0 ;
d. P(greater than 4) = P(5 or 6) = 2/6 = 1/3 ;
e. P(between 0 and 7) = P(1 or 2 or 3… or 6) = 6/6 = 1
f. P(multiple of 3 given even number) = P(multiple of 3 and even) / P(even) = P(‘6’)/P(2 or 4 or 6) = (1/6)
/ (3/6 ) = 1/3
V. Assignment

You shuffle a deck of playing card, and then start turning the cards one at a time. The first one is
black. The second one is also a black card. So is the third, and this happens up to the 10th card. You start
thinking, “the next one will likely be red!” Are you correct in this reasoning? Answer: Yes, there are 42
cards left, 26 red and only 16 black. However, likely does not mean certainty. There is 16/42 chance that
it is still going to be black.