Economics of Climate Change and Low Carbon Growth Strategies in Northeast Asia

JAPAN’s 2nd NATIONAL WORKSHOP 4 November 2010 Hilton Hotel Tokyo, Japan

Assessment of Vulnerability of Crop 
Production to Climate Change

Akio TAKEMOTO 竹本明生

Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science
(IR3S), University of Tokyo

Banjarmasin Indonesia, May 2010

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 Questions

How much is crop production vulnerable in each

country?
How much does climate variability affect crop
production?
How much does other factors (socio-economic factors)
affect crop production?
How to measure vulnerability?
How much is the vulnerability deferent between
countries?
Asia Pacific Climate Change Adaptation Forum
20-21, October, 2010, Bangkok

549 participants
Themes of Parallell Sessions

1. Vertical Integration - Multi-level Governance, Science

and Policy
2. Horizontal Integration - Cross Sectoral Policy Planning
and Implementation
3. Financing Adaptation & Aid Effectiveness
4. Role of Science in Adaptive Development
5. Vulnerability-based Adaptation
6. Market-based Mechanism to Adaptation
7. Adaptation Policies, Legislation & Regulations
8. Climate Uncertainty - Is this an
9. impediment to adaptation?
10. Capacity Needs for Mainstreaming
Concept of Vulnerability Based Adaptation
Baas et al., (2010, forthcoming）
How to measure vulnerability of crop production?
Mean values (baseline) of crop yields
Variability of crop yields
East Asia & Europe
Annual change of yields of all crops (kg/ha) (1982‐2006) 
(Takemoto, 2010; FAO, 2009)

Southeast Asia

Mongolia & Africa

Method to measure vulnerability of crop production
Cr(i) = {yCr(i) – ŷCr (i)}/ ŷCr (i)
= {yCr(i) –(aCr x(i) + bCr)}/ ŷCr (i)
Cr(i) : annual variability of crop yield
Cr(i) stands for the estimated error from the regression
value (ŷCr (i)) calculated from time series of crop yield in
the year i (yCr(i)),

VCr = { Cr(i) - }2

VCr : vulnerability of crop production =variance of Cr(i)

Method to measure impacts of climate variability on crop yield

 Simple regression
Cr(i) = α1×Tm(i) + β1
Cr(i) = α2×Pr(i) + β2
Cr(i) = α3×Dy(i) + β3

Tm(i) = {yTm(i) – }/SDTm

Pr(i) = {yPr(i) – } /SDPr
Dy(i) = {yDy(i) – } /SDDy

Correlation coefficient between Cr(i) and Tm(i) = γC-T

Cr(i) and Pr(i ) = γC-P,
Cr(i) and Dy(i) = γC-D
Method to measure impacts of climate variability on crop yield

 Multiple regressions
Cr(i) = a1×Tm(i) + b1×Pr(i) + d1 :T-P-2 Regression Model
Cr(i) = a2×Tm(i) +c2×Dy(i) + d2 :T-D-2 Regression Model

 R2 statistic calculated from these regression models represents

ratio of impacts of climate variability to variance (VCr).
 To define R2 as the “climate impact ratio”.
 To hypothesize that residue of climate impact ratio (1- R2)
represents “socio-economic impact ratio” to vulnerability of
crop production, whose impact is irrelevant to climatic
variation.
 Table 3Maximum climate impact ratio (R2) among four six-month periods calculated by
 ２つの重回帰モデルで T-P-2 and T–D-2 models. Figures in the parentheses shows periods at the highest R2.
Shaded columns show the higher ratio between two models.
求めた決定理数 T-D-2（independent
T-P-2（independent
valuables: mean
（R2：Climate impact ratio） Regions Countries
valuables: mean
temperature and amount
temperature and number
of precipitation of days over 1mm
precipitation
Japan 0.73(7-12) 0.72(7-12)
East Asia
R. O. Korea 0.23(5-10) 0.28(3-8)

Vietnam 0.42(5-10) 0.24(1-6)

Malaysia 0.13(7-12) 0.06(3-8)

Southeast Asia
Philippines 0.14(7-12) 0.15(7-12)

Indonesia 0.56(5-10) 0.45(3-8)

Saudi Arabia 0.09(5-10) 0.05(1-6)

Middle East Syrian A.R. 0.18(3-8) 0.29(1-6)

Egypt 0.15(1-6) 0.15(3-8)

UK 0.32(3-8) 0.48(3-8)

Germany 0.46(3-8) 0.36(3-8)

West & South
Netherland 0.32(3-8) 0.45(3-8)
Europe
Italy 0.15(5-10) 0.22(5-10)

Greece 0.06(7-12) 0.09(7-12)

Algeria 0.23(1-6) 0.49(1-6)

North Africa Morocco 0.09(5-10) 0.36(1-6)

Tunisia 0.19(1-6) 0.47(1-6)

Benin 0.06(1-6) 0.08(3-8)

Togo 0.27(1-6) 0.28(1-6)

West Africa
Burkina Faso 0.59(7-12) 0.57(7-12)

Cote d'Ivoire 0.25(3-8) 0.19(3-8) 35

Single regression:
Correlation coefficient : Crop yield vs. Temperature

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Yield vs. Amount of precipitation (up)
Yield vs. Number of days of precipitation (down)

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Which factor (temperature / Precipitation) does affect
predominantly over crop productivity?

T-P-2

Red : Temperature, Blue: Amount of precipitation

Figure Standardized partial coefficients calculated by T-P-2 model.
The countries in which the maximum R2 is over 0.30 are selected.
T-D-2

Red : Temperature, Green : Number of days over 1mm precipitation

Figure Standardized partial coefficients calculated by T-D-2 model.
The countries in which the maximum R2 is over 0.30 are selected.
 Size of vulnerability of crop production
and share of climate impact factor

Figure Country comparison of variance of Cr(i)(VCr) and R2 derived from two

types of multiple regression models(blue portions). Vertical axis is shown in
logarithmic display.
Figure Country comparison of variance of Cr(i)(VCr) and R2 derived from two
types of multiple regression models (blue portions). Vertical axis is shown in
logarithmic display.
Summary ‐ regional characteristics on vulnerability on crop production
 Climate impact ratio
 R2 is Relatively high in some of Asian region (Japan, Vietnam and Indonesia),
West Europe, North Africa, and Burkina Faso, while relatively low in some of
the following regions (Southeast Asia, Middle East, Sotuh Europe and West
Africa).
 Generally, rainfall gives more impacts to crop production than temperature.
 It is suggested heavy rainfall decreases crop yield in East Asia, West Europe,
while shortage of rainfall decreases it in such areas as North Africa.
 Vulnerability of crop production
 Vcr is relatively high in Syria, Saudi Arabia and North/West Africa, while low in
East/Southeast Asia, Egypt and West Europe.
 Types of vulnerability
 Climate factor (Vcr*R2) would be relatively high in Japan, west Europe, North
Africa, part of Middle East and part of West Africa.
 Socio-economic factor (Vcr*(1-R2)) would be relatively high in Middle East,
North Africa and part of Southeast Asia, South Europe and West Africa.

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Points to be improved
• Detail information based on surveys in each 
country
• Quantitative analysis on vulnerability of crop 
production derived from socio‐economic 
factors
• Further development of Indicators to measure 
vulnerability of to climate change
• others  
ご清聴ありがとうございました。
Thank you for your attention!
Area harvested Data refer to the area from which a crop is gathered.
Area harvested, therefore, excludes the area from which, although
sown or planted, there was no harvest due to damage, failure, etc. It
is usually net for temporary crops and some times gross for
permanent crops. Net area differs from gross area insofar as the
latter includes uncultivated patches, footpaths, ditches, headlands,
shoulders, shelterbelts, etc. If the crop under consideration is
harvested more than once during the year as a consequence of
successive cropping (i.e. the same crop is sown or planted more
than once in the same field during the year), the area is counted as
many times as harvested. On the contrary, area harvested will be
recorded only once in the case of successive gathering of the crop
during the year from the same standing crops. With regard to mixed
and associated crops, the area sown relating to each crop should
be reported separately. When the mixture refers to particular crops,
generally grains, it is recommended to treat the mixture as if it were
a single crop; therefore, area sown is recorded only for the crop
reported. (from
FAOSTAT)